The Jump to Conclusions Game: Why Angry Aggies Aren’t Enough to Move Texas A&M to the SEC

On By Frank the TankIn Big East, Big Ten, Sports

Nature abhors a vacuum and with a month to go until football season starts, conference realignment talk is back at a fever pitch even though there’s nothing really going on. The latest scuttlebutt is that Texas A&M is dancing with the SEC again with the rest of the Big 12 getting all hot and bothered about their high school recruiting targets getting TV time on the Longhorn Network (which has been placated… for now).

Believe me – I loooove conference realignment talk. It’s the reason why 99% of you are reading this blog in the first place. However, the “Texas A&M to the SEC” rumors are driving me up the wall, not necessarily because it would never happen (even though that’s what I personally believe), but that so many commentators on this subject simply argue that “Angry Aggies = SEC Move” without any further analysis. (For the purposes of this blog post, I will focus on Texas A&M, but the same principles can be applied to rumors involving angry Oklahoma and Missouri fans.) I went through a fairly detailed look at why I didn’t believe that A&M could go to the SEC several months ago and think that all of those arguments still hold true.

To be clear, I believe Texas A&M is an extremely valuable school and if the SEC could add them with no conference realignment repercussions elsewhere, then I could see it happening. A&M has a lot more value than the average UT fan would likely admit. The problem is there could be major conference realignment repercussions that the SEC will not want to witness happen (i.e. its main competitors getting even stronger with the Pac-12 adding Texas and/or the Big Ten adding Notre Dame) – the SEC wanting to add A&M as a reactionary move in 2010 is much different than pulling the trigger and causing the dominoes to fall in 2011. At the same time, A&M’s value is exactly why UT won’t just let them walk away.

Regardless, there’s a segment of the college football fan population that’s simply always going to believe that Texas A&M is heading to SEC just because the Aggies are pissed off. (Remember Missouri was pissed off at the Big 12 last year, too. Also look at all those Big East schools that are supposedly pissed that the conference won’t split. Tons of options for all of them, right?) That’s fair enough, but all I ask of this segment of the population is to address the following roadblocks to that ever happening:

1. The SEC can’t just rip up its TV contracts simply because it expands – A decent number of columnists/bloggers have taken SEC Commissioner Mike Slive’s comment that there are periodic “look-ins” for its contracts with CBS and ESPN and came to conclusion that the conference could set fire to those deals in the event of expansion. While the terms of the SEC TV deal are not public (and that’s the case for any conference), this is a dangerous assumption that I would wager is 99.99% incorrect. (The .01% allows for the slight chance that Slive has compromising pictures of various CBS and ESPN executives with Casey Anthony.) ESPN certainly doesn’t believe that the SEC’s “look-ins” can reopen the TV deal:

The agreement with ESPN calls for a “look-in” review after the first five years but can occur sooner, said Burke Magnus, ESPN senior vice pres ident of college sports programming.

“We knew when we made a 15-year deal that time was not going to stand still so we purposely built in these look-ins,” Magnus said. “They don’t reopen the deal. There’s no outs. It’s an opportunity for both of us to really take stock of where we are and see what we could be doing better.”

It is standard operating procedure that these types of contracts have provisions that protect the network, NOT the conference, in the event of membership changes. In a post by the excellent college TV sports blogger mattsarz about the C-USA/ESPN lawsuit, he attached the underlying TV contract that was made public as part of the complaint that was filed. Here’s the language about regarding membership changes:

10. CONFERENCE COMPOSITION

(a) Essential Institutions. The participation and availability for televised play of the following academic institutions shall be deemed to be of the essence of this Agreement: University of Texas El Paso, Rice University, University of Alabama-Birmingham, University of Tulsa, University of Southern Mississippi, Memphis University, Tulane University, University of Houston, Marshall University, University of Central Florida, East Carolina University and Southern Methodist University.

(b) Unavailability. If any Conference team leaves the Conference or is otherwise unavailable for televised play as authorized by this Agreement (in either case, “Unavailable”) for any Season during the Term then ESPN and Conference will negotiate in good faith after such Unavailability comes to ESPN’s attention to determine appropriate adjustments to this Agreement. In such negotiations, the parties shall take into account, among all other relevant factors, any new members that are added to the Conference in replacement of the Unavailable members. If the parties cannot agree on the appropriate adjustments, then ESPN will have the right in its sole discretion to elect by the May 1 prior to the affected Season (unless such Unavailability occurs thereafter, in which case ESPN will have the right to make its election within 30 days after it is notified by Conference of the Unavailability) to reduce the rights fees hereunder in the same proportion as the number of Unavailable teams bears to 12. ESPN will also have the right at any such time to terminate this Agreement if the Conference has in any season fewer than ten member institutions that are NCAA Division I-A members and that are available for televised play as provided above. In addition, if additional institutions join the Conference (i.e., bringing the number of member institutions to 13 or more), then within 30 days after ESPN is notified by the Conference to that effect, ESPN and Conference will engage in good-faith negotiations regarding potential increases to the rights fees due hereunder.

As you can see, ESPN was able to get a concrete reduction in fees or even completely terminate the agreement if C-USA lost enough members, but if C-USA added any members, all that the parties would be obligated to do was to engage in “good-faith negotiations”, which as an attorney I can say is Kumbaya B.S. with no real meaning. ESPN was the only entity with a legitimate stick here. A conference would only have power if it actually had concrete termination rights in the event of an expansion, which wasn’t the case in the C-USA contract.

Even though C-USA is relatively small player, we can deduce that the power conferences also have a similar clause. The Big Ten, for instance, gained a new marquee member in Nebraska last year and even added a brand new conference championship game (which wouldn’t happen in the case of SEC expansion). If the Big Ten had a termination right that some are assuming that the SEC somehow has, then Jim Delany would’ve called ESPN ten seconds after the new Pac-12 monster contract was announced and said “I’m out!” That obviously hasn’t happened – the Big Ten still has to wait until its current TV deals are done in 2016. It’s also instructive that both the ACC in 2003 and the then-Pac-10 in 2010 performed their respective expansions only a few months prior to their respective TV rights going back up for open bid. That shows that those conferences needed to time their expansions to coincide with their new TV deals (as opposed to the other way around, as the A&M-to-the-SEC believers are arguing) because that’s the only way that they could receive the financial benefits from expansion immediately.

Frankly, this all makes sense. Networks would never reasonably agree to tearing up TV contracts based on expansion because they want to know who the conferences are expanding with (not just expansion in and of itself), and even then, it’s almost impossible to assign a value to any prospective expansion candidates ahead of time. In turn, networks can definitely assign a value to a conference as presently constituted, so they have leverage to get out of deals (or receive relief) in the event that such conference loses members.

So, unless Mike Slive can produce some Casey Anthony photos, we should assume that the SEC has terms just like everyone else: the SEC is stuck with its deals until 2024 unless its TV partners willingly give it more money prior to that. This brings us to the next point…

2. ESPN isn’t going to willingly hand the SEC more money for expansion – Let’s take a quick look at where ESPN stands right now. First, ESPN worked extremely hard to keep the Big 12 together last year in order to block the formation of superconferences by going so far as to give that league the same amount of money even though it had just lost its most populous non-Texas state (Colorado), a marquee national name (Nebraska) and a conference championship game. Second, ESPN has just invested a ton of capital in the Longhorn Network, which essentially depends upon the Big 12 surviving as none of the other BCS conferences besides maybe the Big East would let that monstrosity live.

Call me crazy, but when considering those two points, it seems quite far-fetched that ESPN would actually provide an incentive to the SEC to expand with Texas A&M (and/or Oklahoma and/or Missouri and/or whoever else you want to throw in) that would directly kill off the Big 12 that ESPN has every incentive to save. Plus, with the amount that ESPN is paying the Pac-12 now and with the Big Ten contract going up for bid in a couple of years, it doesn’t make any sense that the network would give the SEC any ability to increase its rights fees prior to 2024. If the SEC’s contract was up in a couple of years like the Big Ten’s deal, then maybe I could see ESPN throwing more dollars in order to lock in an extension, but there’s no business logic for the network to re-open a deal that’s locked in for the next 13 years that the SEC can’t do anything about.

3. Objectors to high school games on the Longhorn Network are arguing semantics (and that’s ultimately a losing argument) – There’s a massive public flagship university located in one of the top football recruiting states in the nation that has entered into a multi-year multi-million dollar third tier rights deal with a regional sports network that is wholly-owned by a large multimedia conglomerate. There are some football and basketball games along with coaches’ shows and other promotions showing the university. The RSN also telecasts high school football games that potentially showcase that university’s recruits. Such public flagship university does not own any part of such RSN.

I’ve just described the contract that the University of Florida has with Sun Sports. It also describes the deal between the University of Texas and ESPN for the Longhorn Network. Structurally, the two deals are virtually exactly the same. ESPN completely owns the LHN, and therefore, controls its programming decisions, just like Fox owns and controls Sun Sports. The main difference is branding, where Florida is part of a network that also shows the Miami Cheat (among other teams) while Texas has its Longhorn moniker in the ESPN’s network’s name. So, does the NCAA come down on the LHN for a branding decision but doesn’t care about Sun Sports? If the LHN simply changed its name to “ESPN Austin”, would it make a difference? Is a network that has 10% UF content acceptable, but another with 90% UT content unacceptable?

Note that this is different than the BTN and Pac-12 Network situations, where the schools in the Big Ten and Pac-12 have actual equity interests in those channels. This makes it much easier for the NCAA to regulate those types of setups or, more importantly, regulate them in a way where the NCAA doesn’t lose in a court challenge. The Texas relationship with the LHN, on the other hand, is really just a straight-up traditional rights fees deal that Florida and a whole host of other schools have with various regional sports networks. As a result, the NCAA, the Big 12 and any other challengers to the LHN would largely have to rely on semantics (the name “Longhorn Network”) with subjective benefits as opposed to the ownership structure of the network itself that can objectively measured, and courts hate arguments about semantics. If ESPN thought the fight was worth it (and that’s a business question as to whether it would spend millions of dollars in legal fees in order to show high school games on TV), it would likely flatten the NCAA (quite possibly the most blatant example of an antitrust violation that we currently have in America, which is a subject for another blog post at some point) in court, just as the University of Oklahoma did in its landmark lawsuit where the Supreme Court struck down the NCAA’s control of TV rights (thereby opening up the ability for conferences and schools to freely enter into contracts with TV networks directly as we see today). The NCAA telling a network that isn’t actually owned by a member school what it can and cannot show on TV could be construed as an overstepping of its authority and, considering the inherently collusive nature of the organization (hundreds of schools making collective decisions that affect students, agents and media personnel that aren’t even employed by such schools), it needs to be careful on how it phrases its regulations.

When the LHN deal was first announced, I was initially puzzled when UT didn’t take an equity interest in the channel, but we now see one of the main benefits. Is showing high school games on the LHN shady? Absolutely! Can the NCAA or Big 12 regulate it? It could try, but at face value, I doubt it would withstand a court challenge. The Big 12 athletic directors themselves have put the kabosh on high school games on the Longhorn Network for this year, yet I’m sure we’ll see this issue come up again next summer and the conference could face the same legal scrutiny as the NCAA would. If ESPN believes the fight is worth it, the NCAA is a fairly easy lawsuit target.

4. People that keep ignoring Texas politicians will get fooled again – Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Fool me thrice, I’m in fucking denial. In the three major conference realignments since the 1990s, two have been heavily shaped by the whims of Texas politicians. The third was shaped by the Virginia legislature. I’ll point back to my “You Can’t Always Get What You Want, Aggies” post that goes through why it’s critical to take into account the irrational nature of Texas politicians with respect to anything regarding football. At the very least, it would be nice to see some other commentators on conference realignment that this is a very real impediment to change. Gov. Rick Perry might be a former Aggie Yell Leader, but if he wants to run for president, he’ll need to raise a lot of money from UT alums (and Texas Tech and Baylor alums), which brings us to the next point…

5. UT needs A&M in the same conference together – Many UT alums likely won’t admit it, but as I’ve stated before, Texas A&M is an extremely valuable school. That’s why UT simply isn’t going to let them walk away, and if it means making some financial concessions or telling ESPN to not show high school games on the LHN to keep the peace (along with applying their own political pressure plus the support of Tech and Baylor), then they’ll do it. There were a number of factors that went into play in the Pac-16 deal collapsing last year, but the threat of A&M heading to the SEC at that time was extremely high on the list. It’s instructive that the Pac-16 deal could’ve easily moved forward if UT was fine with only moving with Tech (and maybe having Utah or Kansas replace A&M in the Pac proposal) while A&M went to the SEC, yet it didn’t happen. I’ll always remember one of the first comments from a connected UT alum on this blog when the Big Ten first announced that it was exploring expansion almost 2 years ago and how he described that UT, in no uncertain terms, would not let A&M head off to the SEC as the Longhorns knew that opening up the state of Texas to that conference for TV and recruiting purposes would be a killer for their own program.

At the same time, count me in as someone that will always believe that the prospect of UT going independent is an empty threat. Money is important, but many commentators are ignoring how important institutional culture is in making decisions, too. Ultimately, UT needs an entourage like a Hollywood starlet. The school’s actions time and time again have shown that having power over others is how it gets it rocks off. It wants to have schools like Texas Tech and Baylor dependent upon it and it certainly doesn’t want A&M be in a separate higher profile league. UT doesn’t just want to make the most money – it wants to control college football in the state of Texas completely, and that requires A&M to be in the fold. Notre Dame is a J.D. Salinger-type recluse that doesn’t want any attachments to anyone, which is why they have chosen to be independent as an institution (even though they’d actually make substantially more television money in the Big Ten). UT simply isn’t like that – it has always positioned itself as the proverbial sun for a bunch of other schools.

UT and A&M have come very close to separating two times before over the last two decades, yet the leaders of both schools have never been able to pull the trigger (even if some their respective fans would love to use a machine gun on the relationship). A combination of politics, institutional culture and uniquely shared endowment money that makes football TV revenue look like pocket change (see the Permanent University Fund) has always kept them together.

Could Texas A&M end up in the SEC? I guess anything is possible, but let’s be clear that just because Aggies are angry doesn’t mean that they’ll move to the SEC. Any rational analysis needs to address (1) why the SEC would expand when it has no leverage to renegotiate its current TV contracts (meaning that the current SEC schools would be subsidizing any expansion until 2024), (2) why ESPN would help out the SEC on that front when it has direct interests in keeping the Big 12 alive, (3) how a court challenge to any restrictions on showing high school games on the Longhorn Network would turn out, (4) why Texas politicians would suddenly be wallflowers on conference realignment when history clearly indicates that they are not only not wallflowers, but completely interventionist and (5) why UT would just roll over and let A&M walk away. I would love to entertain arguments that address all of those massive roadblocks. “Aggies are steaming mad”, however, isn’t a valid argument.

(Follow Frank the Tank’s Slant on Twitter @frankthetank111 and Facebook)

(Image from ThinkGeek)

1,022 thoughts on “The Jump to Conclusions Game: Why Angry Aggies Aren’t Enough to Move Texas A&M to the SEC”

    3. FranktheAg

      You were pretty much wrong on every point. In hindsight why? My guess you didn’t want it to happen as you see benefit to the SEC as a negative to the BIG so your biases take over. In addition you receive input from Texas fans who can’t view any topic on Texas A&M rationally.

      Any thoughts from you about this complete misread of an assessment?

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  5. Jim

    Great post. You did not mention it but the even funnier part of the new rumor was the first one out of an TAM blog that had Clemson already with an invite from the SEC despite no Clemson blog hearing anything about it and most saying the Admin side would never go because of acedmics. Never mind its Clemson a second brand in a small state that the SEC already has covered and that is also not a huge national brand.

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  7. mwp

    Lots of good subtle points, Frank. The focus seems to be entirely on aTm when, in fact, they are the smallest of the actors involved. This is really a fight between ESPN, the SEC, the Texas legislature and UT. With that much money and that much power there are lots complexities and you touched on a few.

    Without more information there´s not a whole lot we can say about any of your points.

    The only one I´ll attempt is the SEC´s perspective. Maybe they see expansion as inevitable and are positioning themselves as the opportunity arises? If Slive says his contract allows ¨look-ins¨ then maybe he probably sees meaningful expansion as a game-changer. The SEC is clearly not Conference USA, as no one that CUSA could realistically add would appreciably increase their value. Do you really think ESPN would NOT be compelled to renegotiate with a truly super 16 team SEC?

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  8. R. Brandon Galloway

    Mr. Tank, once again you have made persuasive arguments for why Texas A&M is stuck in the SEC, which they may be, but I offer the following critiques of this blog.

    With regards to you first argument, as a fellow attorney, I agree that contract language requiring parties to “engage in good-faith negotiations” is inherently nebulous, but such provisions are not quite as impotent as you made out in this article, especially when such negotiations concerns the determination of the fair market values. Even if the SEC’s contract had identical terms as detailed above, the “good faith” provision would require both parties to tender an offer that details what each party contends is an accurate value for the enhanced product of an expanded SEC at that particular time. ESPN would have a hard time arguing the FMV of the SEC should not be measured against the value ESPN just negotiated with the PAC 12, and if they did, the SEC could then claim ESPN was in breach of contract. Under such a scenario, what are the default and mediation/arbitration provisions? It is also not safe to assume the ESPN-SEC contract has identical terms since the SEC had more negotiating leverage than C-USA, especially after the Big 10 had recently started the Big 10 Network, an entity which threatens to cut out the ESPN middleman.

    Another critique is your emphasis on ESPN having the SEC “stuck to its deal until 2024”. While I concede 13 years would be a long time to be “stuck” in a bad contract, and I doubt the SEC views it that way, 13 years is also a short time for a great thing to last when it could abruptly end. ESPN does not want the SEC for 13 years; ESPN wants the SEC for decades. The last thing ESPN would want is for the SEC to give them the finger in 2024, grab 4 to 12 other teams, and head over to FOX or whoever the chief competition would be at that time, or worse, create their own independent broadcast channel a la the BiG or the PAC 12. I suspect ESPN would be quite “willing” to pay more money as part of leveraging their 13 years remaining on their contract for a longer and happier relationship with the one conference whose potential could rival NFL numbers.

    Thanks for the Blog. Just my thoughts.

    Lurker Above

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    1. @R. Brandon Galloway – Thanks for your thoughts. Maybe the best counter to what you’re saying is what hasn’t happened: the Big Ten, who is the conference closest in position to the SEC financially, hasn’t done any of what you’ve described with respect to its own ESPN contract despite going through expansion and even establishing a conference championship game that didn’t exist before. The Big Ten could easily argue that the FMV of its new league is substantially more than the Pac-12 deal. Indeed, Fox negotiated the deals for the Big Ten and Pac-12 championship games contemporaneously and is paying over 50% more to the Big Ten. At the same time, the Big Ten has much more leverage as it’s only a couple of years away from being able to go to the open market with its games. Despite all of that, the only adjustments to the Big Ten/ESPN contract were to make the deal “revenue neutral” for the legacy members (ensuring that they’re getting the same per-school payout going forward as they did prior to adding Nebraska) and allowing for the BTN to show games in the 3:30 pm ET slot (which was previously an exclusive ABC/ESPN window). Now, if the SEC expanded, I could see how ESPN would also likely try to make it a “revenue neutral” deal for the existing members, but there’s no incentive for the Worldwide Leader to provide a windfall (just as it didn’t do for the Big Ten). Maybe I’m wrong and the SEC contract terms are drastically better than the Big Ten’s contract terms, but I doubt it. Without a termination right for the SEC (which ESPN says doesn’t exist), ESPN is the side that has the hammer.

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      1. Alan from Baton Rouge

        Frank – since I started participating in this blog over a year ago, I’ve stated that based on my 30 years of closely following the SEC, there are a few rules the SEC will follow regarding potential expansion:

        1. The SEC is happy at 12 and is not looking to expand.
        2. If the SEC expands, it will only do so if its network partners (ESPN and CBS) pay for it.
        3. Unlike the B1G where cable carriage of the BTN would most likely drive future expansion, SEC expansion would be driven by ratings. Since everyone already has CBS & ESPN, geography really doesn’t matter.
        4. While the SEC only had stand-up doubles in the 1990s round of expansion (Arkansas & South Carolina), the SEC benefitted more than any other conference due it existing teams, and having an almost 20 year head start on CCGs over the B1G and the 12-Pac.

        The SEC is doing just fine without the Aggies. While I think the Aggies, Sooners, Seminoles, or Hokies for that matter would all be good fits for the SEC, the SEC doesn’t need any of them. The SEC has the deepest 1-8 of any conference, and that’s why the CBS game consistently beats ABC’s regionalized coverage of the other five BCS conferences. People outside of the South also find SEC football compelling.

        I agree with you that ESPN doesn’t want to see the demise of the Big XII. I also don’t think the SEC would want to destabilize college football when the current landscape has worked so well for them.

        However, I disagree with your underlying assumption that ESPN could prevent the SEC from expanding if the SEC otherwise wanted to expand, that ESPN would ever use a hammer on the SEC, and that the pre-existing look-ins with ESPN and CBS are just kumbaya bs.

        The SEC isn’t C-USA. The SEC contract with ESPN is the main reason so many cable outlets started carrying ESPNU. The SEC consistently gets the primetime slots on ESPN and ESPN2 because the SEC gets ratings. There’s two ways for cable channels to make money: ratings (advertising) and carriage. The SEC helped ESPN’s newest platform get carriage, and the SEC gets ratings for all of the family’s channels. Also, unlike the Big Ten and the 12-Pac, the SEC hasn’t tried to directly compete with ESPN, other than the CBS game.

        ESPN would like to keep the SEC happy and I fully expect the SEC to get a bump during a look-in as the SEC has most likely outperformed any ratings benchmarks established in their contract.

        Also, you never mentioned CBS in your post. Let’s assume that ESPN did use a hammer on the SEC and refused to re-negotiate if the SEC expanded to 16 with let’s say A&M, Florida State, VA Tech, and any one of Oklahoma/Clemson/GA Tech/Mizzou/Miami. The SEC would then have at least two more games per week that aren’t covered under any existing TV contracts. Would ESPN really want CBS to add a prime time game to compete with ABC’s game? Would ESPN really want one of those games on the CBS Sports cable channel that most people don’t currently have? The additional SEC games could do for CBS Sports what it did for ESPNU in the way of carriage. I think ESPN will always be the Worldwide Leader in Sports, but I also thought CNN would always be the cable news ratings leader. Would ESPN really want to give away a “must see” franchise to CBS Sports?

        Again, I don’t think the SEC wants to or will expand, but if they did, some network would be willing to pay for it.

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          1. duffman

            alan,

            good to see you posting again, however your tigers are f**ked this season. I am on your side, and you know I was on the bandwagon at the start of last season. I still think the mad hatter may be the best showman since P T Barnum sold us the Great Egress. All that said I stick by what I truly believe in that the team at the end of the season is the one that flew under the radar of the pre season talking heads in the SEC. This is where your tigers are f**ked, as the talking heads have picked them out of the gate. I still think they will have a fine season, but they are now cursed. 😦 I hope the mad hatter can break the curse!

            ps, dicky V does the same thing to good basketball teams not named duke. Except for duke, when he picks them they go down the toilet.

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          2. Alan from Baton Rouge

            Duff – LSU was ranked #2 at the beginning of the 07 season and had an OOC game with a top ten ranked VA Tech, and a total of 8 ranked teams on the schedule. The 07 BCS NCG was slated for the Superdome.

            This season, LSU will be a consensus top 5 team (#4 in the Coaches’ poll that came out today). Half of LSU’s schedule includes ranked teams. By the end of the season, LSU will probably play 9 ranked teams. The 11 BCS NCG is slated for the Superdome.

            LSU only has six home games this season, with the Tigers going to Morgan Town to face West Virginia ( a team that will probably be ranked by the time the game is played) and starts the season against #3 Oregon at Cowboys Stadium. Due to its extremely difficult schedule, the Tigers will probably get the benefit of the doubt for any loss (or two).

            Its never a dull moment with the Mad Hatter. We are all hopeful for a title run, but with #3 Oregon, #27 West Virginia, #23 Florida, and the SEC West Murderers’ Row of ranked #2 Alabama, #14 Arkansas, #19 Auburn, and #20 Mississippi State, it ain’t going to be easy.

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          4. duffman

            Alan,

            I think I heard they legalized the booze at WVU, if you are going in person, the natives will be restless. Update, the poll put them under Alabama, so I will get on the bandwagon early. I think you guys will take the ducks and the mountaineers, and with all the turnover in the east, I have less fears there. My worry is a slip in the west to a team not named Alabama. I think Miles will be down in the quarter before the game to do the voodoo that he do so well! 🙂

            ps, what is your favorite mad hatter moment?

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      2. Lurker Above

        Mr. Tank,

        Great retort, but you are assuming the B1G has tried to renegotiate or has even wanted to renegotiate a bigger and longer contract before now. That may not be the case. I believe it is likely the B1G has not renegotiated their present contract because of either one or both of the following reasons:

        First, the B1G probably is not ready, or was not ready until recently, to renegotiate. It was probably wise to watch the PAC 12 negotiations unfold before taking any action. Despite statements to the contrary, they might still be looking at expanding again, especially if the SEC does the same. Most importantly, they are still working out the kinks with the whole Leaders and Legends thingy.

        Second, the B1G just may not want to renegotiate because it might be in their best interest to let their contract play out with ESPN so they can start something new without them. The B1G Network is growing so fast that in three years they will be in enough households that ESPN will not be needed.

        ESPN’s greatest fear is that they could be seen as an expendable middleman. That is the greatest threat to ESPN’s college football coverage and why they would not want to alienate the SEC.

        Lurker Above

        Thanks for the Blog. Just my thoughts.

        Lurker Above

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        1. ccrider55

          Reducing (eliminating?) the middleman’s presence/influence,and their cut, has crossed my mind too.

          The Pac withheld nearly a third of their games to increase P12N value. A year from startup and Scott says it is already guaranteed profitable, before any advertising revenue. http://www.cnbc.com/id/43992795 Would a collaboration between BTN and P12N make any sense? Sharing/sublicensing some games or other events through the year n order to provide more live events?

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      3. joe4psu

        Frank, given all that you said why did the B1G decide to look into expansion in the middle of their ESPN contract? Surely no school took a pay cut and Nebraska has been promised at least what they would have made in the B12. I’m sure some of the money will come from the CCG and some from BTN profits but the conference couldn’t have known before hand how much revenue this would generate. Also, while ESPN may not have added money to the contract the adjustments made in time slots etc. results in more money for the conference. They may not have paid directly but the result was more money for the B1G. I know this is an apples to oranges comparison with the SEC but don’t you think that ESPN would like to avoid hurting the relationship even if a new contract is years out?

        Here’s a couple of articles on the “evaluation” that ESPN and the B1G did as a result of expansion.

        Q&A with Big Ten’s Mark Rudner on football television contracts, scheduling – Scott Dochterman, thegazette.com

        http://thegazette.com/2011/05/18/qa-with-big-tens-mark-rudner-on-football-television-contracts-scheduling/

        Did the Big Ten receive a financial bump in its television contracts after adding Nebraska?

        “I think we went through a mid-term evaluation of our agreement and did some things, but I think it’s fair to say we had some discussions with ESPN and the Big Ten Network. We’re increasing the number of games and we’re increasing the quality of the game. We don’t ever discuss those terms and conditions of those agreements.”

        ————-

        Nebraska’s addition leads to Big Ten TV changes for football, basketball – Scott Dochterman, thegazette.com

        http://thegazette.com/2011/07/23/nebraskas-addition-leads-to-big-ten-tv-changes-for-football-basketball/

        …“The windows are no longer exclusive,” said Mark Rudner, the Big Ten’s senior associate commissioner for television administration.

        “The network will have 3:30 Eastern games in the same window as ABC’s 3:30 Eastern games, which heretofore they couldn’t do. The same in basketball.

        “Last year, since the beginning, if ESPN had a 7 p.m. Eastern game, that meant that the Big Ten Network had to wait until 9 p.m. Eastern, until the window was down. Now they’ll get some measure of relief.”

        The change allows the league scheduling flexibility and gives the Big Ten Network the ability to air games in multiple viewing windows. On four different Saturdays during the 2011 football season there are six Big Ten games with ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC usually airing three. Rather than lumping the other three games in the 11 a.m. CT window, the BTN can spread them into at least two time slots.

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        1. Richard

          Joe,

          From the perspective of the B10, given the BTN and the title game bump, UNL was worth grabbing now. No sense in waiting when you can monetize UNL to some degree from the get-go, even if you don’t realize the full benefits of having the Huskers until the primary & secondary contracts get negotiated mid-decade.

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          1. greg

            When the B10 added Nebraska, it was a long term fit. The BTN and title game made Nebraska revenue neutral, at least, from the get go.

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      4. Bamatab

        Frank, I have to agree with R. Brandon Galloway in that ESPN is not going to try and strong arm the SEC by forcing them to hold to the current contract through 2024 while the likes of the Pac 12 & B1G are making more money. In the end, they aren’t going to create an environment that would foster that kind of resentment that would surely be created. Even if the contract is a ironclad has you are claiming (and I have serious doubts that it is), the SEC is the one conference that they want to keep as a partner far beyond 2024 due to the continued and growing college football interest that the conference breeds due to the culture and demographics of the region. In the end, ESPN and CBS (which you seem to fail to mention in your writeup, btw) will do what it has to in order to appease the SEC’s growing discontent with the current tv contract (Slive has already started laying the ground work through some of his recent media interviews). I also feel that your comparision of the CUSA contract with the SEC contract isn’t apples to apples if for no other reason than the fact that the SEC had far more leverage while negotiating the original deal. The SEC had the threat of a SEC network that ESPN was trying to avoid (not to mention that the demand for SEC football games is far more than CUSA).

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        1. greg

          The SEC needs ESPN just as much as ESPN needs the SEC. 2024 is a long ways away, but if the SEC goes with another network, be prepared for investigative reports into all the SEC’s practices, and negative reporting in general. (although the SEC could be squeeky clean by 2024)

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          1. @greg – Agreed. Neither ESPN nor the SEC is going to actively try to piss each other off. The SEC also isn’t going to walk away from ESPN out of spite in 2024, either – they’ll take the best financial deal from whoever offers it at that time regardless of who it is. That doesn’t mean that ESPN is going to be helpful in subsidizing the SEC in actions that would likely destroy the Big 12, which ESPN has worked pretty hard to keep alive.

            The whole point of these 10 or 15-year deals is that’s the only way that cable companies can make money on them (via incremental raises in subscriber fees over time). ESPN (and even an OTA network like CBS) isn’t going to give a conferece an out simply because of expansion. That almost encourages conferences to expand at will the second that they think their current deal is falling behind, which defeats the whole financial proposition of these long-term deals.

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  9. alchemist

    Great post, Frank.

    Your point about how SEC expansion doesn’t run their existing TV contracts through the shredder and send the league directly to the open market seems to be one of the most misunderstood points in all the realignment talk.

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    1. greg

      alchemist, agreed about how Frank did a good job outlining that any possible SEC expansion doesn’t mean the SEC can just throw their rights on the open market. It seems as if most internet yahoos think the SEC will add TAMU/Mizzou in order to bump up their contract value. At best, the SEC would somehow manage to get their contract bumped up to be revenue neutral for existing members. I don’t think the SEC is going to expand just to remain revenue neutral.

      The SEC is in a good position. They aren’t going to mess things up unless they have a really good reason. The same debates we have had here about the scheduling difficulties of 14 or 16 teams apply to the SEC. Do you think teams are going to want to give up games against old SEC rivals to play Mizzou?

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  10. ccrider55

    Frank:

    Say conference’s E, and P were able to poach enough members that conference X(II) no longer met the contractual requirements of their mega media partner. Your feeling is that rather than reinvest that formerly dedicated outlay in the remaining conferences (regaining lost inventory) they would look to either pocket that money, or throw it at a newly formed bovine related only conference?

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    1. Richard

      The BE has about as much chance of landing Maryland as I have of laying a porn star.

      No wait, I think I have a better chance at laying a porn star.

      (Not to mention that if Maryland is in play, there’s little reason for them to choose the BE over the B10.)

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        1. Brian

          ESPN’s offer was basically double what they got before at $11M. I don’t think anyone would double it again for BE football unless they add ND. How could you justify paying the BE what the SEC makes for football? Nobody watches the BE.

          Lots of athletic departments have problems. A little sound management and better coaching in football will help immensely.

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        2. Richard

          Steve:

          That would be in the range of what the B10 currently gets. I seriously doubt the BE gets that type of deal, but even if they do, why would the Terps, if they were in play, choose the BE over the B10 (assuming the B10 wants them) when the B10 has the academics/CIC, has way better football, is roughly equal in basketball, and will be getting a big jump in revenue mid-century when the primary and secondary rights go to the market? Not to mention that the BTN likely will grow even more.

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    2. okst8psycho

      I would love nothing more than for Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri to leave for the Big East and end the dysfunctional family feud that is the Big 12(-2) conference. Is there any chance that the bidding can get high enough between NBC/Comcast and ESPN that those schools maybe enticed enough to leave?

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    3. Brian

      There is still a lot of bad blood between BC and several BE schools. UConn still refuses to play them, for example. I fail to see how BC would choose to come back or the BE would actually vote to take them back.

      As Richard said, MD going to the BE is highly unlikely. A small pay boost ($3M) isn’t enough to cut ties with their rivals. The B10 would have better odds of grabbing them with the much larger money difference.

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      1. bullet

        I can’t imagine MD going to the BE mess even for more money. The only way I see BC doing it would be if Notre Dame joined for football. Even then, with ND and more money (with ND BE would almost certainly get more than the ACC’s $12.9 million/school/year), I think BC moving would be less than a 50/50 proposition. You have the same argument as Arkansas to the Big 12. Why leave something good & safe for something unstable that could collapse, leaving you out in the cold.

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  13. One development that did come out of the B1G expansion was that there were some changes with the ESPN contract. Mark Silverman has said that ESPN has waived the 7 day exclusivity window on replays of ABC/ESPN games. They’ve also opened up the 3:30 PM Eastern time slot so that BTN can broadcast games at that time. Isn’t the fact that the contract isn’t open the main reason that Nebraska isn’t getting a full payout until 2017?

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    1. frug

      That’s part of it. The other issue is that since Nebraska didn’t put up any money to start the BTN they are having to build up equity until they are a fully co-equal member.

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    2. Nostradamus

      The main reason is the BTN is essentially an established company that is 51% owned by the 11 Big Ten Schools. Said investment is worth $3 billion to maybe $5 billion over the life of contract. Nebraska needs to establish equity in said “company.”

      That said, the exclusive window negotiations are certainly an indication that the Big Ten couldn’t tear up their ABC/ESPN agreement and thus more circumstantial evidence for Frank’s argument.

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    3. Lurker Above

      Good points. I also seem to remember the B1G enterring into a seperate contract with someone other than ESPN for about 20 to 25 million for the rights to their conference championship.

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    4. Craig Z

      Couldn’t the loss of exclusivity in the time slots and replay windows be in lieu of an increase in fees to the conference? The Big Ten could have determined they will make more money by having games at 12 and 3:30 on the BTN and showing replays of games sooner (say a day or two later) than what they could get from ESPN.

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      1. Lots of good points. I didn’t think of buying in to the BTN from an equity holdings perspective.

        Nostradamus/Craig Z – I agree that the changes to the terms (exclusivity windows) is an indication that they couldn’t reopen the contract which adds weight to Frank’s argument. I’m on the BTN Fan Council and Mark Silverman basically said that they (ESPN) waived some rights in the contract that would add value to the conference. I think that it will definitely help for some of their (BTN) studio shows and should build ratings therefore building value. Mark also said ad sales have been strong on the network already for this upcoming academic year.

        Lurker – I think that it’s no coincidence that FOX won the rights, although I think FOX probably had a better bid than ESPN. There’s apparently a large component of cross promotion with BTN from FOX (probably a case where the minority owner wants things to be more successful). This will ultimately drive success long term as the casual fan starts to watch BTN more. Apparently the CCG will have a pre-pregame show on BTN followed by pregame on FOX, the game, short postgame on FOX followed by post-postgame on BTN with full segue’s built into the signoff of each show. I’ve also noticed adds about the B1G on FOX already and Mark Hulsey (Exec Producer BTN) has said how FOX has done a lot with BTN this past offseason regarding graphics, music and other elements on the network. They’ve even confirmed that they’re broadcasting widescreen and are using the “FOX box” this upcoming season just like the NFL coverage.

        With the fact that BTN paid almost as much per school as the ABC/ESPN contract it definitely shows the times are changing in regards to our dependence on the worldwide leader. This is the gamble that the conference made by creating an equity stake in a network.

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          2. Brian

            Well, I guess I’ll listen to the radio broadcast if OSU ever makes it to the CCG then. I will not, under any circumstances, watch that damn robot. Somebody at Fox should be beaten to death for coming up with it and someone else for keeping it.

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  15. cfn_ms

    I tend to agree tht the SEC shouldn’t be able to just rip up their deal. What they CAN possibly do, though, is find a way to monetize the much larger amount of content not covered by their deals (presumably the ESPN/CBS deals are for a fixed # of games per year). Unless the “you can’t do an SEC network” part of the deal is rock-solid, the SEC could potentially go in that direction. Whether that makes it worth it or not, I have no idea. But I would presume that’s the underlying logic.

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  16. AggieFrank

    Lots of supposition and very little fact. So you believe that the Texas legislature would hold A&M in a conference even if that position is punitive to the university?

    You might want to actually develop some A&M contacts and discuss this versus leaning on the word of BON as your single source of input on this topic.

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    1. Brian

      Why would TAMU contacts be any more helpful than UT contacts? What would be helpful is knowing a bunch of TX legislators well enough that they would tell you honestly (as if that’s possible for a politician) if they would threaten TAMU in order to protect TT and Baylor. There is a bigger picture than satisfying TAMU fans.

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      1. Aggie in Fort Worth

        The Texas legislature is not in session right now, and we just finished last month a special session. The next legislature is to meet January 2013, unless our governor decides to call a special session — to which he is more concerned with his own aspirations than collegiate bickering.

        Baylor is royally screwed over — TCU, SMU, and Houston have not forgotten that they squeeked into the Big12 over them, and the other three Texas programs in the Big12 do not really care what happens to Baylor if it means to make more money. TCU has been rumored to be blocking any attempt of Baylor to join the Big East — knives have been drawn. As for Tech, they may land on their feet with the PAC12, but could the Mountain West Conference expand in the process and take the Big12’s prized BCS position if the Big12 were to fall apart?

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  18. AggieFrank

    Also you really don’t see a substantial differences between Sun Sports and the LHN? How about the LHN is exclusive and has one partner in Texas? You mention the Miami Heat airs on Sun Sports but fail to discuss the fact that they also pay millions to the organization. They clearly are not the exclusive medium for UF and that is a material difference.

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    1. Eric

      From a legal standpoint though the difference isn’t very big. Texas and Florida both licensed some of their content to a 3rd party and have little control over what the 3rd party does from there. The real practical difference is UT letting the channel use its name and I doubt that’s enough to make any real difference.

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  20. Bullet

    UT does have an equity kicker in the LHN. The deal starts at 10.98 million and increases 3% annually over the 1st 5 years (If this is escalation for all 20, this is for the full $300 million and not just UT’s $247.5—-$52.5 million goes to IMG). Once the revenue hits $295 million, UT gets 70% of the profits.

    Now I don’t know if this is like the Hollywood movie deals where nothing ever makes a profit, but most likely this is a real provision. ESPN is budgeting $15 million a year for production and $11 million for overhead with a $13 million startup cost. Source of this is the Texas alumni magazine.

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      1. bullet

        The studio is not on campus. Its a couple of miles up the road. But UT is being extensively wired for coverage of all sorts of events.

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  21. Steve on the Bayou

    WIth regards to conference media contracts, can anyone say if an escalator is different from a look-in, and describe what bearing the difference may have on the SEC not adding (or adding) a valuable school like Texas A&M?

    ” First of all, our contracts are written in such a way that the rights fees have escalators in them. So we feel good about that. Secondly, they have “look-ins,” so that every so often we revisit the contract and “look in” at our current deal to make sure that we are remaining on top of our game.”–

    Mike Slive Q&A with Tony Barnhart, May 30, 2011

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    1. bullet

      An escalator is simply a way of raising the fees each year. The SEC’s $205 million a year deal is the average. It starts much lower and works its way up, effectively adjusting for inflation. That’s a set arrangement.

      Hard to know exactly what a “look-in” is without knowing the language of the contract. Generically there may be some kind of standard to determine whether it is still a market deal. If not, there may be some provisions for renegotiation, but the rights of each parties could vary greatly depending on the language. I’m with Frank. I doubt the SEC really has much flexibility on their “look-ins” and I doubt ESPN is going to give them anything without getting something in return. ESPN is really playing hardball with CUSA. Yes, CUSA is not SEC, but ESPN is aggressively protecting what it views as its rights.

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  22. Brian

    Frank,

    I largely agree with you, but I have several bones to pick with your arguments.

    1. True, angry TAMU fans don’t equal moving to the SEC. However, if the right set of Aggies get mad it’s a whole different ball game. If it’s the President and the trustees and the top boosters that are mad, that’s different. You should have clarified that you were only considering the masses, not the VIPs.

    2. I don’t think Mike Slive gives any consideration for the other schools in I-A. If he thinks adding TAMU is the right thing to do for the SEC, he’ll do it. Besides, UT to the P12 and ND to the B10 are stretches to me (UT – B12 or independent, ND – independent). The B12 would be OK without TAMU anyway, so taking them isn’t the critical piece.

    3. CUSA is not the SEC. CUSA had no chance of adding a school that would drastically boost the value of the league. The SEC has that ability and Slive is smart enough to have language in the contract to take care of that eventuality. There are no consequences to playing hardball with CUSA, but the SEC definitely has future leverage. ESPN would at least bump them up to revenue neutral including the additions plus a small COL adjustment to keep them satisfied. It wouldn’t be massive, but enough to show they value the relationship. CBS will also placate them, especially if they get to add a bunch of Texas TVs to their broadcasts.

    4. I think the main reason leagues expand just before negotiating new TV deals is because they want to put their best foot forward. By adding the teams and having numbers to show their value, the leagues have data to drive the negotiations rather than projections. It’s the same reason you clean your house before selling it rather than telling buyers how clean it will be by the time you hand the keys over. If you add the new teams too early, the newness wears off and the addition loses its impact.

    5. Bullet mentions that UT actually does get a cut of the profits after a certain number is reached. I’ll just add that the LHN also gets a lot of campus facilities/access/programming that a non-partner wouldn’t offer.

    6. As I said in the previous post, the NCAA can easily stop high school sports on TV. All they have to do is declare every player whose team plays a regionally or nationally televised game (local broadcasts and state-wide playoff coverage are fine), or whose school is paid in any way by a network, as permanently ineligible for NCAA sports. No school would let ESPN on campus if it meant no scholarships for everybody.

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  23. The problem for A&M is they have become closer to Baylor in the athletic department then Texas or Oklahoma (And because of basketball, even behind Oklahoma State, Missouri & Kansas). They have become the Fighting Illini of the BIG XII (Or whatever you want to call it (Longhorn Conference maybe?)). Think about it: It used to be the Big Two and the Little Eight of the Big 10, for Illinois to deal with. Now, it is not just Ohio St & Michigan, but Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan State and maybe even Iowa, have surpassed Illinois top to bottom. We saw this with the Big 10 Hockey Conference, where Illinois can’t afford to build a Hockey Program (While one man allows Penn State to do it). It is almost like Minnesota football, and Indiana basketball, living on past laurels, while falling behind Northwestern in the Big 10. I understand hockey is not cheap, but they could have taken advantage of the Chicago market, and done it a long time ago. but chose not to. That is where A&M is, living in the past, and not taking the steps necessary to break out of the pack (And that should mean leaving the conference like Nebraska did, and joining the SEC).

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    1. bullet

      Part of A&M’s problems are that they fell behind on facilities. They focused on a humongous end zone addition they didn’t really need to make their stadium bigger than UT’s (for 3 or 4 seasons) and neglected everything else. Part of the reason they are so hurting for money now (and looking very seedy in demanding their $20 million from the Big 12 while OU and UT declined any special deals) is that they have been spending large amounts recently to catch up with the rest of the Big 12 and Division I on all those other facilities.

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      1. Aggie in Fort Worth

        The $20M is the minimum requirement made by the Aggies to the Big12 Conference, and the Big12 Conference agreed. The Horns and Sooners are not taking the “special deals” because they make more than $20M with all of their television appearances. A&M may or may not be taking any money from the “special deal” when it is said and done — all depends on whether they can get on teevee more.

        Again, Dan Beebe and the other athletic directors agreed to A&M’s demand to be paid $20M.

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    2. A&M closer to Baylor? Take off the Big10 goggles buddy:

      8th in the directors cup. http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/nacda/sports/directorscup/auto_pdf/2010-11/misc_non_event/finald12011.pdf

      A&M is 18 on this list of highest athletic profit:

      Which Football and Basketball Programs Produce the Largest Profits?

      This 2009 list says A&M is on the list as one of the top 20 most valuable college programs:
      http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/20/notre-dame-fooball-biz-sports-cx_ps_1120collegeball_slide_17.html?thisSpeed=undefined

      A&M’s had a huge improvement in facilities, too

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  25. Walter

    If Texas has no say in the LHN as you imply is the defense (it’s ESPN not Texas making the decisions) then how can Dodds agree not to show games next year, in the AD agreement you mentioned… your logic is rowing on both sides of the boat.

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  26. M

    I don’t think the antitrust issues would be as foregone a conclusion as you suggest. Sports’ leagues have always had a weird relationship with antitrust and have often received wide latitude to engage in behaviors that would be textbook antitrust violations in other industries (e.g. draft, salary cap, age restrictions).

    I don’t know if the NCAA would fight ESPN on it, but there’s certainly an argument that the NCAA has a legitimate interest in regulating recruiting to preserve amateur athletics and assist in competitive balance, two areas that SCOTUS recognized as areas justifying reasonable restrictions of trade in the ’84 case that allowed less limited television sales.

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    1. I’m largely with Frank concerning antitrust issues. Professional sports mostly get leeway on antitrust issues because they collectively bargain with the players (and baseball actually has a ton of rope because the Supreme Court way back when ridiculously decided that MLB was not interstate commerce). The NCAA doesn’t have these protections. Plus, a really easy way to piss off a U.S. Senator is to freeze out a university in his/her state.

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  27. Bigredforever

    We have seen this game before. The reality is Texas is doing what it has been condititioned to do: make demands. The LHN needs content. It needs content badly. ESPN knows this, so does Texas. So why not ask for the moon? If the settlement is a conference game or two, then the LHN wins. This is no different than any other negotiation. Sometimes, it is best to ask for 15 things when all you want is 5. Negotiate down and both sides feel like they’ve won. I don’t see this as anything more than a negotiation. And Texas is going to get more while the other 9 feel like they’ve won. Great strategy by Texas.

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    1. RedDenver

      That’s the feeling I get too. Why would an ESPN exec make the “mistake” of talking about all the Longhorn recruits the LHN was going to cover? That’s one of the stupidest moves I’ve ever seen. Unless it’s a calculated move to focus the attention and ire on the high school games. LHN is going to get B12-2 games on the network, and the rest of the conference will pat themselves on the back for “preventing” LHN from broadcasting high school games.

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      1. ccrider55

        Precisely. And welcome to the Longhorn’s big12 Network…..

        Although it was the Big12 game that raised aTm, OU, MO’s ire. Barry Tramel wrote a piece a about how it was all smooth sailing without UNL. Following that big12 game announcement pretty much he (and others) admitted that what UNL had been saying, was coming true. He seemed shocked that UT/ESPN would make such a move, or at least so soon. The perception of having “prevented” something will not be such with administrators.

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  28. bullet

    To go along with Frank’s frustration with commentators and someone else’s comment about how lazy many sportswriters are now, I get frustrated with legitimate sportswriters (i.e. NOT the Bleacher Report), getting the facts wrong. Repeatedly, and even recently, I have read about UT/OU/A&M getting the CU/UNL exit fees and special deals on the TV money and how they would get all the money and the rest would get a pittance. UT and OU both pointedly declined any guarantees and said they would oppose any special deals. The bottom team has always gotten around 70% of what the top team got, not exactly a pittance, and Kansas was 3rd in distributions in the most recent list I saw. The TV deal has always been based on appearances with no committments to any one school. Actually, the Big 12 changed the allocation of revenues toward more balance. It was around 50% equal, 50% appearance based and is now around 3/4 equal (I think the actual % was 77%) and 1/4 appearances. These guys get paid for this and write without any effort to get facts.

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    1. Eric

      Some of the other misconceptions bother me a lot too. I hate the fact that I feel like a Texas cheerleader at points, but there is just so much wrong with the ways a lot of facts are portrayed that I can’t help sound that way sometimes.

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  29. Logan

    If the SEC goes to 16 teams and plays a 9-game conference schedule, that’s 24 new conference games that did not exist before. Who has the TV rights to those games? I would assume that the CBS and ESPN contracts are for a specific number of games. Seems to me one of three things would have to happen. ESPN could renegotiate its contract to acquire the extra games, the SEC could shop this package to Fox or Comcast, or the SEC could create its own B1G/Pac12-like network.

    If the SEC is truly locked in to its TV deal until 2024, I can’t imagine they will be happy watching the Pac12, Big 12(-2) and the Big Ten surpass them in TV revenues. It would seem like selling the extra games generated by expansion could close that gap. If SEC teams get $17m/year, that means this new package would have to be worth at least $68m/year to justify expansion. I could see it being worth significantly more than that given the current sports TV climate.

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    1. Eric

      That’s more conference games, but fewer games total (since they would replace nonconference games that average well more than 50% at home). CBS would still get the top pick and ABC/ESPN would still get the same number it gets now. The rest would presumably be able to be sold off unless the ABC/ESPN contract says they can take as many as they want (given the network was trying to stop an SEC Network, that might be the case). Regardless, whatever might be left over will be the smaller games and are unlikely to be enough to justify expansion.

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  30. laxtonto

    A few of things…

    1. The memorandum by the Big 12 is just gamesmanship, nothing else. This gives the NCAA time to make a ruling that they well know will get struck down if they oppose the idea. During that time period, the clock keeps ticking. As time passes, the new bylaws come into effect and the new network deals get signed. Eventually by the time this comes up again, A&M will be neatly trapped between not having a catalyst to incite a move with the NCAA approving HS sports (with most likely some pain in the ass restrictions to look like they have done something and will allow A&M to save face for a PR victory) and huge new exit penalties tied to both the bylaws and the new TV deal.

    2. UT won’t go independent due to the rest of their sports. Going independent means UT basketball in the Southland conference… Lets just say that it is not going to happen. Independence is more of a nice threat and a worst case scenario contingency than anything else.

    3. Texas politics will be nasty over this. Perry is considering a presidential bid. There is no way he risk angering the rest of Texas politics by allowing any form of potential move that would see the likes of Baylor, TT or UT have problems in their programs. If he becomes a candidate, he will need lots of cash. There are some rather influential wealthy A&M alums, but they are outnumbered by the combined might of the other Big 12 Texas schools. If you want to see what will happen, just follow the money.

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    1. Piney Woods

      laxtonto,

      If this fait accompli that you propose is in the works then what if A&M refuses to sign a new deal with binding exit penalties? Pres. Loftin has publicly stated that no new documents binding A&M to the Big XII have been signed.

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      1. Mike

        The Big 12’s exit penalties are tied to the amount of conference revenue received. Once Nebraska and Colorado left the buyout increased (10 schools splitting the TV contract instead of 12) and once the increase from the 2nd tier FOX deal kicks in next year the buyout will increase. I think it’s safe to say that IF the Aggies were to leave they would be paying at least double what Nebraska did.

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  31. duffman

    *mumbles something about those who do not study history are doomed to repeat them*

    ++++ TAMU was in the SEC once – or at least the beta version
    ++++ back then we had the superconference
    ++++ what is old, is new again

    Here is how the history played out

    TAMU was beating SEC teams for a few years after UT left the pre SEC because UT wanted to start a conference they could control. The conference was called the Texas Intercollegiate Athletic Association. Problem was nobody cared for UT by itself, so UT got TAMU from the pre SEC, and OU to form the new TIAA and called it the Southwest Conference. OU was smart enough to drop out early for what became the Big 8 while keeping the Red River Rivalry. Back then OU and TAMU were not so attached to the UT teat, but after about 100 years of dysfunction here we are again, still talking about TAMU going back to the SEC.

    Last time the super conference happened it broke into several parts. The SEC, ACC, and SWC were the big winners of the break up. TAMU and UT are still in a sibling fight that will never end, and everybody else thinks they will get one of the kids – *looks at the B1G, PAC, and SEC* – because the kids have grown and they have daddy’s trust fund (see also PUF) and everybody wants a cut. The problem with trust fund kids, is daddy never taught them to share, or how everybody else does not have a trust fund to live on. Add the whole “we are independent in Texas” to the mix, and it just fuels the fire.

    Someday the B1G, PAC, and SEC will wise up and pick folks who are happy to be on a team. Arkansas is happy being a team member in the SEC. Nebraska is happy to be in the B1G. Colorado is just happy to get out alive. Which begs the question, if Texas is so great, then why are the surrounding states trying to get away? Somebody will pick up Missouri and Kansas as they seem happy to find a new home and would be willing team members to anybody that takes them in. Oklahoma may find its former self and go elsewhere while keeping the RRR – this time with T Boone U in tow. The rest will just roll along because they have nothing in the coffer to buy their way out. As for TAMU to the SEC, let me know when TU puts Vanderbilt back on the schedule every year before I start buying that fairy tale.

    ps, Frank you have a good site, but we need a few therapists on here to balance out the lawyers when it comes to reading the tea leaves of conference realignment and the state of texas.

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    1. bullet

      Dodds commented that Texas could go independent if it had too (implication it clearly did not want to) and had talked to about 20 other schools about grouping into conferences.

      If the Big 12 broke up and Texas felt like it had to go independent, you could see a bigger transformation that anyone envisions. What was old could become new again where you have a large number of major independents in football. What if those 20 included Miami, FSU, OU, Arkansas, Arizona St. and USC along with Texas, BYU and Notre Dame?

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      1. Richard

        Pretty much none of those schools (besides Texas & ND) would get more money as an independent than staying in a BCS conference. BYU probably would join a BCS conference as well if they got an invite.

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        1. joe4psu

          Richard,

          Isn’t the income B1G schools get already much larger than ND gets? I don’t know when their NBC contract expires and I suppose they’ll get a big bump then but that is not guaranteed. I know for cultural reason ND wants no part of the B1G, or any other conference, but if money were a major concern don’t you think ND would join a conference? As for UT, would they really get more money as an indy than they can in a conference since there a more regional attraction? They don’t have the national following that ND has and if ESPN is paying above market value to UT now to help keep the B12 together that doesn’t mean they’d pay them better as an indy than they do now with UT as a member of the B12. BYU’s income is greater as an indy but they have a more national following than UT and their income from the MWC was a pittance.

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          1. duffman

            joe4psu,

            It was on here along time ago, but in theory you are correct that the B1G gets more $$ from TV, but that is offset by the alumni money that flows to ND and actual game $$. As an independent they can get more favorable games (with no home and home against say IU or a smaller venue school with limited appeal) on better terms by selling “neutral” games in neutral markets where ND is selling most of the tickets and keeps most of the profit. If any ND folks say this is wrong feel free to correct.

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          2. Brian

            joe4psu,

            Nobody knows for sure what ND gets.

            The general rumor is $15M from NBC. However, one of the ND professors that was part of the negotiation says that the contract is much more valuable than is commonly assumed. Maybe he is wrong about the “common assumption” or maybe the real value is $20M+. Who knows?

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    1. Brian

      What do you mean, gone too far?

      I certainly disagree with parts of her analysis, even granting her base assumptions:

      1. MO would go B10 before SEC
      2. Kansas is a pointless addition for the B10 in her scenario, especially if they are looking east. Why not take Pitt instead?
      3. I really doubt the B10 goes for the NYC triangle with UConn, Rutgers and Syracuse
      4. TCU and TT to the P12 seems unlikely
      5. The ACC won’t bend on academics enough to get WV
      6. I think the OK schools would look west not SE
      7. It’s hard for me to believe the ACC would go unscathed

      Instead, maybe these are the additions for her scenario:
      SEC – TAMU, TT, UL, WV
      B10 – MO, KS, Pitt, Rutgers
      ACC – UConn, Syracuse
      P12 – OU, OkSU

      The SEC adds 2 teams to each division, keeping the current alignment in tact.

      The B10 sticks to geography/culture and academics. It gets some eastern companions for PSU, some big markets to build the BTN and a hoops king.

      The P12 takes the only football king available and OkSU is the price. They save room for BYU and the next good western program (or UT if they change their mind).

      The ACC takes 2 good hoops schools near NYC.

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      2. Michael in Raleigh

        “5. The ACC won’t bend on academics enough to get WV”

        This is a solid point that tons of writers who should know better miss about the ACC. They erroneously presume that if the ACC ever either expands or needs replacement members, or both, the schools at the top of the list are West Virginia, Louisville, and Notre Dame. Well, of course they’re correct that the ACC would pursue Notre Dame, but realistically, Notre Dame is just a school they’d ask just for the sake of asking without any real expectation of an acceptance. Louisiville and West Virginia would absolutely not be on the league’s wish list. For that matter, USF and UCF wouldn’t be either, even if replacements were needed for FSU & Miami.

        Instead, the ACC would more likely go after the Big East’s stronger academic schools: Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse, and/or UConn. That should be rather easy to figure out. But, as I mentioned before, if the ACC was entering into an environment where the Big 12 has broken up and its competitors have swelled to 14+ members, then the ACC would certainly try to go after some of those schools, too. Missouri and Kansas would be at least as attractive as some of the Big East’s truly eastern schools. While I’m talking about reactionary moves, I wouldn’t put it past the ACC to go after the Big East’s western outpost, either, and get into the DFW market with TCU.

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        1. Brian

          The ACC may bend a little for a school in FL due to the large market and talent pool, but USF would need to be on a clear upward trend academically and athletically.

          WV has no market and no talent pool, and thus no shot.

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          1. duffman

            WVA to the ACC nope
            UL to the ACC nope

            UC to the ACC hummmmmmm……

            UC used to be a private school like duke and vandy, so they share roots. As we have discussed before they are not the “research” school they were before they went public in the 70’s. They have a billion dollar endowment which is nothing to sneeze at. They have a strong liberal arts side that would be more valuable to the ACC than the B1G (CCM is still top 5 in the US, and DAA is a solid top 10). Cincy has to NCAA basketball banners, and a footprint that puts the ACC in the IN/KY/OH triangle….

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          3. duffman

            brian,

            They can use Nippert for say duke, and Paul Brown for FSU, so that part is workable. When they played Oklahoma in Cincy last year they drew around 58 K which would put it around NC ST and UNC’s 60 K stadiums. and well above Duke. (it was a good game, and the final was 31-29 so it was not like the Sooners blew them out).

            With UVA, they would have the top architecture schools, and UC law is one of the oldest in the US. The problem with UC is they are two schools, and U college used to weigh down the core of UC. U college was started after the move from private to public to educate the masses, and had lower admission requirements. (not sure if U college was the actual term, but that is what everybody used to call it). Not sure if tOSU non main campus schools have the same entrance requirements as Columbus, but if so that was U college, the difference was they were both on the same campus.

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          4. Brian

            UC doesn’t like to use Paul Brown too much, plus they can’t control the conference schedule versus the Bengals’ schedule. The Bengals probably don’t want a weekend doubleheader.

            The OSU regionals are easier to get into, but you can usually transfer to Columbus after 1-2 years if you keep your grades up. Many students prefer to stay for the smaller campus and class size and staying closer to home.

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    2. @Todd – Yeah, the difficulty is that there aren’t really any ways to divide up the college football world into 4 16-team conferences (assuming the survivors are the Pac-12, Big Ten, SEC and ACC) without each of those conferences making some drastic concessions on what they look for in members, whether it’s in terms of academics or the new schools would make more money.

      I know I’m a Big Ten guy, but I doubt they’ll be getting the SEC’s sloppy seconds (much less being late movers after the ACC) in a complete reconstruction of college football. If the Big Ten wants Mizzou, they’ll get Mizzou over the SEC. The SEC won’t “block” the Big Ten from adding anyone. The only school of real value that the SEC could clearly get over the Big Ten in a head-to-head battle is Texas A&M.

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      1. Brian

        People seem to ignore the fact that conferences need a compelling financial reason to expand.

        Which schools might provide compelling value?

        ND – not going anywhere until forced
        UT – not looking to move, could go anywhere including independent
        TAMU – wants the SEC or B12
        OU – might go anywhere, but the academics are shaky for the B10
        FSU – SEC is only other realistic option
        VT – could go B10 or SEC

        I don’t see the P12 making the first move with these choices. The B10 might move to compete with the SEC for VT, but that presumes VT is looking to move. The SEC is happy as is, but could pursue TAMU and/or OU.

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        1. Richard

          Well, the B10 actually has nonfinancial reasons to take the heart of the old ACC, which is why I think they’d make the move for Maryland, UVa, UNC, and Duke/NCSU even if the additions turn out to only pay for themselves.

          1. Go South Young Man! I: It’s where the population growth is. Both NC and the DC area have grown substantially, and unlike many areas which saw population growth due to the recent Ponzi housing market, growth in NC is organic while the growth in greater DC due to the expansion of the federal government which is unlikely to reverse.
          2. Go South Young Man! II: Football recruiting.
          3. Academically, they’re a great fit. Other than Texas & TAMU or the Cali Pac schools (between unlikely and no-chance-in-hell of adding those) only the core ACC schools fit in perfectly academically and also can justify their additions athletically/monetarily.

          Plus, the BTN may be able to monetize basketball better. That $30M ACC Raycom contract is almost solely due to the football-level TV ratings that college basketball gets in NC, VA, and MD.
          Additionally, getting one of UNC or Duke coming to visit every year would help basketball ticket sales as well.

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          1. Brian

            I don’t buy some of your reasons, especially since collegiality is so important to the presidents. They don’t want to expand to 16, add 4 borderline cultural fits, risk diluting the brand and play the other schools much less often just to break even financially. They need to get paid (in money or otherwise) to make those sacrifices.

            1. The population growth is great in NC, and really good in SC and GA. The rest of the southeast, including FL, isn’t growing faster than IN, IL, MN, IA and NE. OH and PA have very limited growth and MI actually shrank during the recession. The other major growth areas are TX and the mountain states (AZ, UT, CO, WY, ID, NV).

            What people fail to mention is that part of growing faster is starting from a smaller base. The B10 is full of large states (7 of the top 21), while the SEC mostly has medium size states (3 of the top 20) and doesn’t completely dominate the biggest ones. The ACC has many large states (6 of the top 20), but doesn’t dominate in the biggest ones so the numbers are a little skewed.

            Data source (size and growth rate):
            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

            B10 states
            5 IL 12.8M
            6 PA 12.7
            7 OH 11.5
            8 MI 9.9
            15 IN 6.5
            20 WI 5.7
            21 MN 5.3
            30 IA 3.0
            38 NE 1.8
            Total = 69.2M with only IA shared

            B12 states
            2 TX 25.1M
            18 MO 6.0
            28 OK 3.8
            30 IA 3.0
            33 KS 2.9
            Total = 40.8M with only IA shared
            This is the big problem for the B12 as TX will just dominate more and more over time.

            SEC states
            4 FL 18.8M
            9 GA 9.7
            17 TN 6.3
            23 AL 4.8
            24 SC 4.6
            25 LA 4.5
            26 KY 4.3
            31 MS 3.0
            32 AR 2.9
            Total = 58.9M with FL, GA, SC and KY shared

            ACC states
            4 FL 18.8M
            9 GA 9.7
            10 NC 9.5
            12 VA 8.0
            14 MA 6.5
            19 MD 5.8
            24 SC 4.6
            Total =62.9M with FL, GA and SC shared

            All the ACC states people mention would be 5th or 6th biggest in the B10, it’s not like they would make a drastic change. The B10 will have the lead in population for quite a while barring any changes, especially if you don’t give full FL, GA and SC credit to the SEC and ACC. The importance of UT and TAMU becomes obvious, though.

            2. Recruiting follows population in many ways. If more B10 states added spring football, that would balance much of the advantage that southern players have. So would eliminating oversigning and having equal academic standards. People forget that OH, PA, IL and MI produce tons of players, too. Southern players get more hype, and FL and TX produce a huge amount of talent based on larger populations, but every school is numbers limited. B10 schools already recruit FL, GA and even TX heavily.

            3. Of course, the ACC core would be a great addition academically. That’s not a reason to add them, though, just a reason not to avoid adding them. The schools might be able to pay for themselves, but in the process the B10 would be gutting an old league and adding a bunch of schools that are a questionable fit culturally. For that, they want to go to 16? Divisions of 8 mean at most 2 crossover games, or an 8 year cycle (yes, they could do pods and cycle faster but I don’t see that with this group added).

            Better reasons you didn’t mention:
            1. The SEC is trying to get a VA or NC school so the B10 at least needs a foothold there
            2. Some NCAA change makes 16 advantageous financially or required for post-season

            If population and recruiting are your big concerns, with academics also important, then the B10 needs to sell its soul to get UT or TAMU. Nothing else comes close.

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          2. duffman

            brian,

            to be fair

            Iowa > Iowa State : Iowa = B1G, not split state
            UGA > GT : Georgia = SEC state

            USC has made great strides on Clemson since SEC admission, so I would agree that is a split state, however I am willing to bet in state SEC games on TV outdraw ACC ones.

            UF is your parents and grandparents school, and that is who pays for the most expensive tickets, and they still watch TV. I would give the gators an advantage (and SEC TV games a big advantage to the ACC). I would put them above 50%, but not as high as UGA’s advantage to GT for the eyeballs.

            The in state one that really make me wonder is PA post JoPa
            If Pitt got hot again, and PSU fell, how would that state fall when it comes to eyeballs?

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          3. Brian

            duffman,

            I didn’t mean to imply that the split states were split evenly. I just wanted to note that having all of the AQ schools in one conference is quite different from having only some of them.

            I included IA to be fair, but sure UI > ISU in most of the state. But frankly, IA is so small that it’s not a big deal.

            To me the first issue is FL, with only 1/4 of the AQs in the SEC. Sure, UF and the SEC is top dog but not by that much anymore with the ACC having #2 and 3. If FSU beats UF again, the prominence battle for teams is on. In other words, a significant percentage of FL residents are not UF/SEC fans. That means their total population is significantly lower than what the raw numbers show.

            As for GA, yes UGA is dominant and the state leans towards the SEC. However, GT has a decent number of fans in Atlanta, too. Since half the state lives in Atlanta, that again means the raw numbers need adjusting.

            I agree that SC is fairly split with an SEC lean, especially lately.

            So to my point:

            Give the SEC 60% of SC, 67% of FL, 85% of GA just as guesses
            Whole states = 18.8 + 9.7 + 4.6 = 33.1M
            SEC share = 23.6M
            ACC share = 9.5M

            B10 total = 69.2M
            New SEC = 49.4M
            New ACC = 39.3M

            The guesses aren’t perfect, but the point is clear. Losing even a small percentage of their 2 biggest states (FL and GA) and a chunk of another one really hurts them in terms of total numbers. Even giving the SEC and ACC an extra 5M for overlap would leave a huge lead for the B10. The south is growing, but it has a long ways to go before it is a major problem for the B10.

            As for PA, I think Pitt has a long way to go to catch up, especially being in the BE. It would take a streak of Pitt dominance over PSU to change things, but PSU has a ton of advantage in recruiting, money and conference alignment. It’s like comparing USF to FSU.

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          4. duffman

            brian,

            I agree with the percentages, or something like them what I was aiming for was non school demand under 2 population groups.

            a) people that follow neither, but watch what is on the tv on saturday

            for this market I am willing to bet that the demand for SEC football greatly exceeds ACC football. While the SEC has a smaller state footprint (SEC home states) of the Big 3, they are the best at creating demand beyond their borders. Winning helps, but they are better at getting their low teams in as well.

            b) people that follow a specific school, but cross over to another conference when other games are on.

            A Ga Tech fan might watch their team, but watch another conference when Ga Tech is not playing. I have some friends that do this exactly, and watch Tech as a team, but the SEC as a conference. I never see them watching ACC football games if it is not Tech. I do not know how this percentage breaks out, but I am guessing there is more crossover than some suspect.

            I was on a B12 board and was surprised when they listed top games and market share, about half the teams in the top 10 were SEC games. Either there is a big demand, or crossover is bigger in the non football conferences. I think the B1G and SEC can hold their local ground and pick up extended ground outside their home states. the PAC who knows, but my guess is the B12 / ACC / BE are all reversed from the B1G / SEC / and the state of texas.

            Texas is a football crazy state, and Indiana / Kentucky are the same in basketball. In all these discussions I think people forget that some things translate differently across conferences and state lines. I will watch UNL (before the B1G move) ahead of pretty much any game with ACC only teams. Even tho I watch UNL, does not mean I will watch UT or OU play other B12 teams. We have already discussed the fractured NY market, but I often wonder what other markets are closer to NYC than say Norman. As I said before, being a basketball guy I live in a great spot to see B1G, BE, SEC, and A10 basketball with great ease. There are probably football fans like me out there, and how do you figure out their viewing habits (aside from owning a network and getting data firsthand). 🙂

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          5. Brian

            duffman,

            I agree with all your points. I just get tired of hearing the refrain of the B10 has to expand to the south because we’re running out of people. The B10 would like to get a bigger share of the people, but that’s partially due to wanting more BTN money and more national power.

            The B10 footprint has the most people and is still growing. The fastest growth in the south is localized to 3 states, with the rest not outpacing the B10 area. Of the 3, NC isn’t in the SEC, SC is split, and even GA has a piece missing.

            Yes, lots of people watch games from outside the region. You mention ACC and B12 (and B10 too) people watching the SEC, but don’t forget all the transplanted northerners in the south watching B10 games. Atlanta is hardly a pure SEC town, the same with Charlotte and others.

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        2. @Brian – Interesting that you bring up VT as a possible Big Ten candidate, as not too many have proposed that scenario and I’ve actually been thinking about that recently. IF the Big Ten were to try raiding the ACC (and let me be clear that I don’t believe that will happen and have long thought that the ACC is on much stronger footing than many seem to give it credit for), I’ve been wondering if the best play would be to grab Maryland, Virginia and Virginia Tech as a trifecta (and then the last spot for ND as I’m assuming this would entail the Armageddon scenario of 4 16-team conferences where you need to be in one of them to compete for the national championship, which is literally the only way to get ND to give up independence).

          UNC and Duke are obviously fantastic if you can get them, but what will be difficult to get over is that the ACC is their conference in the same way that the Pac-12 is the conference for USC and UCLA and (gulp) the Big 12 is the Texas conference. It would take a lot more than sheer money to get UNC and Duke to move from a league where they are clearly the standard-bearers. At the same time, from a market perspective, the Big Ten would likely always be Northern interlopers in North Carolina. I’d feel the same way if the Big Ten tried adding a school like Georgia Tech, too – there’s just no way that region of the country could ever be Big Ten territory. Those schools would be chosen to be hired guns that wouldn’t fit into the conference.

          In contrast, the Mid-Atlantic region and DC market have a much better shot at becoming legit Big Ten territories in spirit (not just on paper). There’s enough of a concentration of Big Ten alums in Maryland, DC and Northern Virginia (particularly a heavy Penn State contingent) where adding in all 3 of Maryland, UVA and VT would create some strong network effects. 15 years ago, you could’ve owned that region with just MD and UVA, but I think VT is necessary now as it’s solidified itself as the main football draw in the area. Why let the SEC take them and intrude on a territory that you would want to own completely? The area has favorable long-term demographic growth projections, yet it’s not just adding some Sun Belt schools simply to get a presence there while ignoring the cultural aspects. VT isn’t an AAU school, but its academic rankings are in line with Indiana/Purdue/Iowa, so I don’t think the Ivory Tower contingent would have an issue with the Hokies. Ultimately, any 16-school scenario still needs to be driven by football, so VT is pretty valuable.

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          1. Richard

            I guess I just don’t see ND ever giving up independence. I think they’d rather become Army than join a conference.

            BTW, NC is filled with Northerners now (granted, mostly down from the East Coast). You go to Charlotte, and almost everyone is from out of state.

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          2. @Richard – True, Charlotte has a lot of Northern transplants, although that can be said of most of the Sun Belt cities (Atlanta, Nashville, etc.). Culturally, though, they’re going to still be Southern for a long time (and thereby SEC or ACC country, respectively). Virginia (largely driven by the DC suburban portion) seems at face value to be a place that would more easily transition to being a Big Ten state

            If ND never gives up independence, then the Big Ten might as well go after the real big gun from the ACC: Miami. The football brand is top-notch (even if weakened a little bit recently), it’s a Northeastern school that happens to be located in the Southeast, and its location is geographically isolated from everyone in every conference, so distance is irrelevant. In terms of transplanted Midwesterners, Florida is the #1 destination, so it’s as good of a spot as any as a target area for the Big Ten. Granted, the “football fan” side of me wants that move more than the “university president” side of me, although academically, Miami is much farther along than ND in terms of research capabilities.

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          3. Richard

            Oh, and while the NC schools obvious think of the ACC as “their” conference, if the ACC becomes an also ran, I just don’t see UNC staying put. They’d be as happy there as Texas was in the SWC after Arkansas left.

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          4. Richard

            Frank: Don’t forget the Research Triangle as well, and eastern NC is filled with military transplants (and veterans who stayed after serving), who come from all over.

            NC is fast becoming as southern as southern Indiana.

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          6. Richard

            OK, from here:
            http://www.city-data.com/forum/new-york/6004-who-else-moving-north-carolina-11.html

            “The northerners I know here who are the happiest in NC are the ones who moved to one of the main cities. And I don’t mean just in the city limits—but deep inside the urban core. They find a better sense of community (instead of a farm field turned into a sprawling subdivision), walkable neighborhoods, educated neighbors, progressive schools that can better-handle the growth, better city services, higher diversity, etc etc. They find themselves much happier in those places, and the native NC’ers there get along with them fantastically.”

            “I’m talking about northerners finding an atmosphere of the people in those urban cores are more compatible with the northern culture they’re used to. Cuz those who do go into the suburbs and rural areas, they’re the ones who see all those negative aspects (& stereotypes) of the south that you see complaints about in the many pages of this thread. Those who stay in the big cities, don’t see nearly as many of them.”

            So there seems to be a big urban/rural divide.

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          7. Richard

            . . .however, I would say that’s true about VA as well. Move outside of the DC metroplex, and the rural areas are as southern as NC’s. I knew a Virginian in college, and she said Virginians (outside of NoVa) don’t consider the DC suburbs as being part of Virginia.

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          8. Michael in Raleigh

            Let’s not overstate the urban/rural divide too much here. Lifestyles in rural, middle-of-nowhere Illinois is like night and day compared with life in Chicago.

            That said, I think everyone’s made some solid observations about North Carolina. If I had to guesstimate, Charlotte and the Triangle both are about 50-60% from outside the Carolinas or nearby Virginia, and maybe 70% are from outside the state itself. There’s also a strong military presence that draws on people from everywhere in Fayetteville and small cities like Jacksonville and Goldsboro.

            At the same time, Frank is right about this not being some kind of northern state with warmer weather. Greensboro, Winston-Salem, High Point, Gastonia, and any town in eastern NC are all every bit as “southern” as Birmingham, AL, and it’s not as though I don’t hear plenty of southern drawl every day here in Raleigh, despite its rapid growth. Moreover, for the people who care about and follow the local teams, they think of their schools as southern schools first. Thus, I would say that the vast majority of people who care about UNC, NCSU, Wake, and Duke would prefer to be in the SEC over the Big Ten.

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          9. Brian

            Frank,

            I don’t see VT as a primary candidate, but certainly it would be worth blocking the SEC to take them. I’m with you on the strength of the bonds of the ACC core.

            Your MD, UVA, VT plan makes some sense. VA is the much bigger state, so you get 4-5.7 million people per school. Unfortunately, none of the three is a great brand. Do you need UVA to get MD, because you could save a slot by getting just VT and MD. I don’t think UVA is needed to grab the VA market anymore, especially since their MBB team is down. The SEC isn’t going to get UVA. You could add Rutgers for population or Pitt for fit.

            I agree that NC will never feel like B10 country. I’m not sure about MD and N. VA either, but it’s possible I guess. At least they aren’t as southern in culture.

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          10. Brian

            Richard,

            ND has said they would join a conference if it was a prerequisite for competing for a National Championship. There is also strong sentiment that they would join one if BCS access became much tougher for them. 16 team super-conferences may do that.

            Picture 2 auto-bids per conference, and you’re at 8 teams. That leaves 2 spots in the current setup, and super-conferences probably could get an at large bid as well. That could mean the 4 leagues take all 10 spots. Would ND accept having to be one of the top 2 non-superconference teams to get a BCS bowl, especially when the contract would probably reduce their guaranteed payout when they don’t go?

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          11. Richar

            Mike, the key question is whether the UNC and Duke administration (and alums) would prefer the SEC over the B10. With Duke, I think that’s an easy question. UNC’s alums are mostly Carolinian, but I get the sense that they have as much interest in joining the the SEC as the Longhorns do.

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          12. duffman

            Frank,

            I agree with VT, but in many scenarios we have TAMU heading to the SEC, and VT seems like the ideal fit. Looking at the TAMU boards VT is the number 1 pick by far that they would like if they go to the SEC. Granted the younger kids are not as keen on the COC status of both schools, but the old guys making the calls sure are. New army may chatter, but old army makes the deals. Put TAMU and VT in the same conference and I think Army / Navy / AF start showing up with regularity on both schools OOC. ND has used the Army and Navy games for years as solid OOC type games when compared to ND playing Iowa State or Wake Forest in those same slots. Say what you will, but ND is good in scheduling that way.

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          13. M

            “VT isn’t an AAU school, but its academic rankings are in line with Indiana/Purdue/Iowa”

            Not by the AAU research rankings (the ones that got Nebraska and Syracuse kicked out). VT is at #91 nestled right between Oklahoma and FSU, two schools routinely dismissed for Big Ten expansion on academic grounds which have a far better football acumen. Of course, Nebraska is #109 in those rankings, so perhaps the academic component has been overblown all along.

            Also, if the aim is to secure the DC market, VT is an almost 5 hour road trip from downtown DC. Their student population is much more from the southern and western part of the state. I don’t have specific numbers, but I would guess that they are the 4th or 5th most popular college team in the DC area (behind Penn State, Maryland, Georgetown and UVA in some order). I can’t see why the Big Ten would add a reach school with limited appeal to double count a state, especially if Maryland is added as well.

            In that situation, why is VT better than Pitt? Pennsylvania is a larger state than Virginia. Pitt is unassailable academically. Pitt’s DMA is twice the size of VT’s. Pitt is about the same distance away from DC. Pitt fits much better culturally.

            Of course, politics is politics. Texas might not be the only school with a tech problem.

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          14. M

            “I knew a Virginian in college, and she said Virginians (outside of NoVa) don’t consider the DC suburbs as being part of Virginia.”

            I’ve seen the term “occupied Virginia” tossed around.

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          15. Brian

            M,

            Frank said:
            “VT isn’t an AAU school, but its academic rankings are in line with Indiana/Purdue/Iowa”

            You replied:
            “Not by the AAU research rankings (the ones that got Nebraska and Syracuse kicked out). VT is at #91 nestled right between Oklahoma and FSU, two schools routinely dismissed for Big Ten expansion on academic grounds which have a far better football acumen. Of course, Nebraska is #109 in those rankings, so perhaps the academic component has been overblown all along.”

            He did say academic rankings, so here’s the USNWR rankings of some relevant schools:
            55 Syracuse
            56 PU, OSU, MD
            63 TAMU
            64 Pitt, Rutgers
            69 VT
            72 IA
            75 IN
            79 MSU
            104 NE, FSU
            111 OU

            I’m not saying USNWR rankings are gospel, but they give some guidance.

            —

            As for the DC market, the B10’s goal would be to be on basic cable there to get the subscriber fees. The combo of PSU, MD and VT would achieve that. Once exposed to B10 football, the hope is that the ratings grow over time. Northern VA is almost 1/3 of the state’s population and would fit in nicely. The next biggest area is the coast around Norfolk and the giant Navy base, so many of the people aren’t directly tied to the south. Third is the Richmond area which is hard core southern. The western edge along the mountains is more Appalachian than southern and could fit in with parts of OH and PA. I agree with you about not getting both VT and UVA unless you have to, but blocking the SEC from taking VT is a decent reason to consider it.

            You ask why VT is better than Pitt in that case. Well, VT is hugely popular in large chunks of VA for starters. Second, the B10 already has complete coverage of Pittsburgh so it wouldn’t add much directly. Maybe the question is why take UVA if you have MD and VT?

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          16. frug

            @Michael

            While the schools’ fans my identify the the schools as having more in common culturally with the SEC, I think most of the fan bases (at least UNC and Duke) would prefer Big 10 membership because of the larger number of basketball schools. True, UK would provide them with a natural rival (something the Big 10 can not) but overall, I think most would find the Big 10 a better long term fit.

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          17. Richard

            Brian:

            VA bigger than who? NC has 9.5M. VA has 8M.

            As for ND, despite what the administration may want, I think their alums force them to stay independent. Beating out a bunch of BE and MWC for one of 2 BCS spots isn’t going to be difficult for a good ND team, as they’d win the tiebreaker against any team from those conferences.

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          18. Brian

            Richard,

            I was saying VA is much bigger than MD, so having 2 schools in VA versus 1 in MD wouldn’t lower the population per school too much.

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        3. greg

          Conferences need compelling financial, cultural, and long term reasons for expansion, financial by itself won’t do it. Well, this applies to the B10 and SEC. B12 seems to primarily need financial reasons, but there aren’t financial reasons on the horizon. BE needs only financial reasons and probably not even that, considering how often they expand. P12 is purely financial, and I think Larry Scott may be dangerously risking the P12 long term fit in order to expand.

          B10 and SEC will not expand just to slightly increase the financial return. SEC has the highest Q rating, the best brand, and just does not need to expand. B10 has the tightest educational fit, makes the most money (slightly ahead of SEC but you can basically consider them equal), and is the research leader. Both conferences will have to think long and hard before any expansion, and I think both are doubtful to expand.

          Posters mention that there may need to be a rule change that drives the expansion to 16. Where would this rule change come from? If conferences are not at 16, why would the NCAA membership change the rules to make 16 attractive? It was an accident that 12 became attractive, the SEC found basically a rule loophole to establish its title game and make 12 what it is today.

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          1. @greg – This is a good point as it’s a circular roadblock to any BCS conference going up to 16. To me, there’s not that much incentive to be that large under the current rules. However, if an NFL-style playoff system were allowed – 4 16-team conferences of 4 divisions each, with each of those division winners advancing to conference semifinals, and so on – then there’s a big-time incentive to go up to 16. The problem is what you point out – no one is going to propose a rule change like this to go up to 16 unless it’s already at 16, and it’s unlikely the conferences go to 16 without that rule change already in place, so there’s an inherent gridlock point there. Of course, the option for the power conferences to split off entirely from the NCAA remains, too.

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          2. Brian

            The people who are pointing out that there might need to be a rule change to drive this, like me, are the ones who don’t really think going to 16 is likely. It will probably take several kings wanting to move.

            If UT, OU and TAMU all wanted to go somewhere else, every other conference would have to listen. Those are great brands and schools and have a huge market base. Even if they aren’t a great fit for you, can you afford to let them go elsewhere? I think all the other important schools are settled, so no mass expansion:

            USC, UCLA – happy in P12
            AL, FL, GA – happy in SEC
            FSU, Miami – seem happy in ACC and UF doesn’t want them in SEC
            OSU, MI, PSU, NE – happy in B10
            ND – happy in isolation
            UT, OU – seem happy in B12

            TAMU could be a trigger, but it would require something big for the TX legislature to not try to stop it. Once they go, the question is what OU does? If OU stays put with UT, then things probably settle down again with the SEC (most likely) having a leg up on everyone else. At most it will drive the B10 to talk to ND again.

            The problem would be if the B12 – TAMU (and possibly MO as a partner) becomes too small to be viable. Do they start adding back old SWC foes or BE teams to raise the numbers, or do UT and OU look for new homes? OU can’t afford independence, so they either so P12, SEC or B10. The fight for UT would be legendary, but they might prefer independence. Even if all that happens, though, I don’t see everyone chasing 16. They will take the fewest additions necessary to get TAMU, OU and/or UT.

            The only other thing that comes to mind is if the media world changes to the point where having all the extra content from 16 teams becomes very valuable. What if the B10 could start BTN2 and get paid almost as much for it as for the BTN? Would that drive them to get to 16?

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          3. bullet

            I don’t think 16 is likely either. I also don’t think 16 is stable. That might give you the critical mass not for TV exposure, but for implosion.

            The most likely trigger for more expansion is Notre Dame deciding that independence hurts their football (which IMO it does). I suspect the BE and B12 will get to 12 eventually, but the SEC, ACC and B10 will be happy where they are unless ND (or UT or OU) triggers changes. A&M wouldn’t be a trigger. It would be a loss for the B12, but as long as OU stays put, BYU makes a nice replacement and even Louisville would be ok.

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    3. Richard

      Dosh is being very blonde here.

      The Big10 isn’t going to expand to 16 by adding KU, SU, UConn, & Rutgers just because the SEC does so (if they do). If its a choice between adding those 4 or staying at 12, they’d just stay at 12 and suffer no ill consequences.

      If TAMU joins the SEC, the SEC will either grab Mizzou and stop or raid the ACC.

      She doesn’t explain why the B10 and SEC wouldn’t try to raid the ACC with the B10 settling for BE leftovers instead.

      If the ACC holds together, only the B12 would implode.

      The OK schools likely head west because people say on the nets that the OK schools aren’t appealing enough to the SEC (and that seems reasonable; it makes no sense for the SEC to take OkSt with OU when they could leave 2 slots open for FSU and VTech in the future).

      TTech may be picked up by the BE.

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      1. Brian

        I thought her B10 expansion was silly, too. Her assumption of ACC stability seems shaky, but I gave it the benefit of the doubt.

        Assuming the ACC is off limits, the B10 would probably continue to wait for ND.

        What I wonder about is, what happens if the SEC offers TAMU, OU, OkSU and MO (I don’t buy that OkSU is too high of a price for getting OU – they have big revenue numbers)? It’s even worse if they substitute FSU or VT for MO.

        The B10 won’t want to see another king join the SEC, let along the SEC gaining a foothold in TX too. Do they wait and hope the P12 gets OU instead? Do they offer OU to pair with NE? Do they compete for MO/VT/FSU? Do they offer TAMU? Will the B10 just sit at 12 if the SEC goes to 16?

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        1. Richard

          If the SEC offers Mizzou, the B10 can block (actually, it could very well get the Pac to do the dirty work by offering the OK schools, Mizzou, and KU). For that old Big8 quartet, staying together and joining another old Big8 school in CU in the new Pac16 East (which would be the old Big8 +ASU + UA + Utah – ISU – KSU – UNL) would be pretty compelling compared to being split up.

          If the SEC manages to pick off ACC schools, that gives the B10 the opportunity to go after the heart of the old ACC (Maryland, UVa, UNC, and Duke/NCSU).

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    4. Lucky

      It amazes me that ppl still overvalue off-the-cuff academic rep as a factor in conference realignment. Nebraska got dropped from the AAU right after being accepted into the B1G! WVU will end up in the ACC if they expand because WVU brings cash dollars. If you think of Nebraska as a poor man’s Notre Dame, then WVU is a poor man’s Nebraska. Passionate fanbase. Strong athletic department throughout (except the baseball program). Complete market dominance over all WV markets, strong presence in Western PA and also DC as well as a very strong alumni presence in North Carolina and Charlotte in particular. The ACC would actually gain several compelling tv matchups (at least regionally) in WVU-Maryland, WVU-VT, WVU-UVA, WVU-BC, WVU-Miami, WVU-FSU (Bowden connection plus Jimbo is from Clarksburg, WV). Don’t overthink it (Cincinnati over WVU?? Get real.) If the dominoes fall, WVU & Pitt will be in the ACC.

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      1. Brian

        Like it or not, academics are an important factor for the decision makers, especially in the B10, P12 and ACC. WV is not a king. The brand of NE justified letting them in, especially since they enabled the B10 to add a CCG. There’s a huge difference. WV might pay for itself, but that’s about it. Why expand for that?

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        1. cfn_ms

          WV would be an interesting fit for ACC. I think if the ACC HAD to expand due to some combination of national movement towards 16 and/or getting raided by B10/SEC, then WV would definitely be a consideration. I certainly don’t think ACC would rush to take WV before they absolutely had to. I don’t see ACC doing anything other than reactive moves in this environment.

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      2. I can envision WVU as part of an ACC 2.0, that is, a conference looking to replenish after its core members (UNC, UVa, UMd and either Duke or NCSU) were absorbed by the Big Ten and Virginia Tech and perhaps FSU became an SEC member. In that environment, academics aren’t quite as big a factor and WVU goes in as part of a mass exodus from the Big East.

        Of course, WVU could become an SEC wild-card, as it’s in a state adjacent to Kentucky (and Virginia) and has had a southern orientation in the past (as a longtime member of the Southern Conference). I could see WVU joining A&M, Missouri and VT in a 16-team SEC.

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  33. CAN’T WAIT for your post on NCAA antitrust issues.

    I will go to my grave saying Illinois should have sued the s*** out of the NCAA when they went after our mascot. The fact that they didn’t shows beyond a doubt that the UofI administration was happy and willing to kill the Chief and lay the blame on someone else. If Illinois had joined forces with North Dakota they could have beaten the NCAA, but the powers that be had no interest in that.

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      1. I refuse to buy into the PC crap that a “mascot” is somehow insulting or insensitive. If that were the case every human mascot would be on its way out the door. The whole “It’s a symbol not a mascot” argument was a feeble attempt by Pro-Chiefers to turn the debate. And as it failed miserably, I don’t see any reason to keep up the charade.

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        1. Brian

          So you don’t see how Ole Miss having a plantation owner as a mascot might be a little offensive to some people?

          Or how having a white guy dressed in a parody of Indian garments and making up fake Indian dances might be a problem? And no, I’m not accusing any specific school of that before you get too excited.

          At some point, institutes of higher learning have to value the feelings of others. State funded institutions especially shouldn’t be actively insulting large swathes of people for no good reason. And no, having had the same mascot for a long time does not count as a good reason.

          I had no issue with schools that responsibly used Indian names and mascots, but there is a lot of room for things to go wrong with it. If the Sioux tribes don’t feel North Dakota is properly representing them, they should have the right to stop it. If Ireland gets upset about Notre Dame, they should also have that right. I think the NCAA was right to get rid of the generic slang terms like Redskin since many of them were basically racial slurs. I wouldn’t want to see the Honkies or the Wetbacks, either, no matter how long the name had been used. I do sympathize with fans that are losing nicknames and mascots that they have a long, deep connection with.

          As for schools named after now non-existent tribes, that’s tough. Maybe a council of 5 leaders of various tribes should get a say in place of the defunct tribe’s leaders. The point is to avoid embarrassing stereotypes that exist because nobody is left to complain about them.

          I’d let schools slide on Cavemen or Neanderthals, but I don’t think anyone has gone that route.

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          1. bullet

            Didn’t you see? Some geneticists believe they have discovered Neanderthal DNA in our genes (at least in non-Africans). And Denosivan DNA in New Guineans.

            Should we ask Greeks if its ok for USC to be the Trojans and SJSU to be the Spartans?

            The Cleveland Indians and Washington Redskins aren’t changing and noone is asking them to. They’re the only ones still out there that are really offensive.

            Actually on North Dakota, one tribe approved it and the other refused to have a vote (per ND fans because they would sure it would be approved).

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          2. Brian

            I did see the stories about Neanderthal DNA, and I wasn’t really surprised. Teenagers aren’t exactly renowned for their will power, so 2 similar hominids doesn’t seem like a stretch.

            As long dead civilizations, I’m not too concerned about Trojans and Spartans. That’s a little different from a fairly recent extinction as with the Illini, especially since many similar tribes are still around. 2000 years after all the Indian tribes are gone, I wouldn’t have a problem with Indian nicknames coming back either.

            I agree about the Indians and the Redskins. Cleveland has certainly received a lot of heat over Chief Wahoo, and deservedly so. The difference is these are pro teams and people can choose not to support them. That’s harder to do if your taxes pay for the team.

            I heard about ND getting 1 of 2, but I didn’t follow it too closely. Maybe they should have bribed the other tribe. I’m sure they could scrounge up some beads and trinkets.

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          3. What about UMass, where a group of students complained that the Minuteman wasn’t inclusive enough because it only represented white males? So in that case a mascot is so great and so rewarding that people get offended when they are left out, but in the case of the Illini or Sioux it’s so offensive that it has to go?

            I used to agree with you on the Redskins name, but after years of seeing the anti-Chief people refuse to draw any distinction between Chief Illiniwek and the Washington Redskins I’ve lost any interest in the plight of mascot-haters.

            Your point about avoiding “embarrassing stereotypes that exist because nobody is left to complain about them” seems a little backwards considering other indians murdered the Illini and now you want to let other indians decide how they should be represented. That’d be kind of like asking Germans to determine how to discuss the Holocaust.

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          4. Brian

            If you believe the Peoria Indian tribe, the Peoria tribe in Oklahoma are the descendants of the Illini that were resettled to the west. So they did have someone who could respond.

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          5. Brian

            As for UMass, I don’t think the NCAA had anything to do with that. If the students want to bitch and the school chooses to cave, that’s a UMass issue. I’d have told them to shut up and study their history.

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    2. Eric

      The NCAA’s policies on mascots is actually the biggest reason I would be OK with it dieing. There are other things that are probably more important, but that so stepped over a line (the NCAA should have zero right to tell schools they can’t use mascots they were using before it was even founded) that I’ve always held that as my biggest beef with the NCAA.

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      1. Brian

        The NCAA is a voluntary association of schools. The schools voted to ban “offensive” mascots, probably because most school presidents see cultural sensitivity as important. All these schools have to do is get permission from the associated Indian tribe and they can keep the names and mascots (see FSU). If the Indian tribes have a problem with these mascots, why shouldn’t the NCAA consider that important?

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        1. That would be a legitimate argument except for one small detail: there are no more Illini Indians. They were massacred. And not by the evil white man, but by other Indians. All the NCAA did was effectively finish the genocide of the Illini by removing them from public consciousness.

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          1. Brian

            Yes, because Illinois sports really had people a lot of people thinking about the plight of the Indians. You do realize that most people don’t know IL’s nickname, and of those who do many more don’t know that the Illini was an Indian tribe, right? I bet a poll in IL would find a lot of people who don’t know who the Illini were, where they lived or anything about them.

            As I said above, the NCAA should have tried a panel of other Indian leaders for cases like IL where the relevant tribe is no more. They’ll know what is generally offensive and what isn’t.

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          3. greg

            NCAA isn’t asking Illinois to remove the Illini name from the public consciousness, they just want to stop the white kid from Winnetka from dancing around in Indian garb at halftime.

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      2. frug

        The problem with your argument is that the NCAA didn’t actually ban U of I from using the Chief. They simply said that Illinois would not be allowed to participate in NCAA sanctioned post season events if they didn’t get rid of him.

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    1. Adam

      Hahah, I like it!

      Granted, Quebec has issues that Winnipeg didn’t. They don’t have an arena, there isn’t a clear ownership group in place chomping at the bit to get a team, and the population is smaller. Yet the fact that Winnipeg gambled on a new arena and ended up with a team, combined with substantial franchise instability right now in the NHL (Islanders, Coyotes, Panthers, Predators, possibly the Blue Jackets) could be a catalyst to getting an ownership group interested in stepping forward and making an arena deal happen.

      Stuff like this leaves me baffled at why the NHL looked/looks (haven’t heard anything about it for a while) in such a hurry to realign. Who the hell knows what will happen in a year?

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      1. jj

        the lesson for the nhl is know where your bread is buttered. i read some crazy stat one time about the difference in actual eyeballs sabers games had v some of the new markets. a market isn’t worth a crap if you don’t have their attention.

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  36. bullet

    Also on a contrarian note, its generally accepted that since the ACC contract was great and got eclipsed by the SEC which was eclipsed by the 2nd tier Big 12 which was eclipsed by the Pac 12, contracts are continually going up.

    There was a comment that the Pac 12 deal turned things on its heads. Scarcity was viewed as a value. Well, that could be true to a point. With all the saturation and availability of regional teams, the value of the big names could decrease. The Big 10 could find they don’t get much of an increase because of the market and having 4 kings-UNL, UM, OSU and PSU. ESPN and Fox had to work together to use all the inventory the Pac 12 had. Maybe they don’t have the capacity for additional SEC inventory. Football could decrease in value because of all the available games splitting the audience, much like basketball has. The conference championship games no longer have exclusive time slots. They compete with each other.

    Many people believed housing prices would go up continuously not too long ago. Continued increases in TV contracts is no guarantee. And the SEC deal is still pretty comparable to the Pac 12. They don’t have quite as much on the air. SEC teams get to hold 1 game back.

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    1. Brian

      The exponential growth will stop soon, I think, as the contracts catch up to the true market value. I think slow growth will continue beyond that, though.

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      1. duffman

        bullet and brian,

        I see your points, but folks in Texas are already watching SEC games. I can not see a reverse demand in the SEC for B12 games. I have to think in the end you have to pay for markets, and right now (past 5 years) the SEC is hot. Football drives the bus, but the SEC just dominated the past CWS where new revenue streams are expected to come from.

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        1. Brian

          Duffman,

          There is reverse demand, just not for as many games because the B12 hasn’t had as many elite teams lately. You don’t think people in the SEC footprint watch the Red River Shootout? I’m pretty sure the ABC night games out draw the SEC on ESPN, too. The SEC on CBS trumps ABC, but part of that is all the focus CBS can put on hyping one conference during other sports programming.

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          1. duffman

            brian,

            I agree on the RRR, but it is one game. When UNL and CU packed their bags, I would argue so went 1/3 at least of the outside eyeballs watching B12 games. Sure UT, OU can get outside eyeballs. TAMU’s value is eyeballs inside the footprint because I sure do not remember them getting the same national feeds that UT, OU, and UNL have since I was a young man. You can not tell me ESPN can sell more of TAMU vs ISU over UGA vs UK. Both TAMU and UGA are upper middle pack schools, and UK and ISU are football bottom feeders (put KU in place of ISU and you get about the same result). We have discussed this before, as that is where the real value seems to drive SEC national eyeballs in the games below the top 10 matchups. The SEC has a real sweet spot here that the B12 and ACC have not been able to challenge.

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          2. Brian

            I agree with all of that. I just thought your blanket statement of no reverse demand was too simple. There is reverse demand, it just isn’t equal.

            However, the SEC didn’t used to be the media monster it is now. It recruiting rules get straightened out to level the playing field, you’ll see the SEC come back to the pack and the top conferences will get more equal demand. The B12’s problem is that it lost 2 big names and several other schools just seem to refuse to commit to good football (Baylor, KU, KSU, ISU). You can’t have 4 out of 10 not try and still have a good product to sell.

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          3. bullet

            I guarantee KU, KSU, Baylor and ISU are trying. And all but Baylor have been in the top 10 at some point in the last 10 years. Have Minnesota or IU been there? Has Purdue or Michigan State? And KU has been in a BCS bowl more recently than most of the Big 10. In 1994 and 2007 KU finished the season in the top 10. How many Big 10 schools can claim 2 top 10 finishes in that time period (my guess-The Big 3 + WI + IA-less than half). KU certainly hasn’t been consistently good, but they have had some good moments.

            I’d argue that the Big 10, SEC and ACC have more schools that aren’t trying real hard than the Big 12.

            I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but just how you are trying to get there. If you aren’t in the top 10 currently or frequently in the top 25, you don’t generate much interest other than locally. The SEC has more schools that fit that 2nd category than any other conference.

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          4. Brian

            bullet,

            There’s trying and then there’s trying, you know?

            KU had one fluke year when they missed UT and OU and played NE at home, and they still lost to MO. They won 8 games the next year, and you have to go back over a decade to find a previous 8 win season.

            KSU is running an extended JUCO team with a coach old enough to remember a young JoePa and haven’t won 8 games since his previous stint, with the last time in 2003.

            ISU hit the top 10 for a week before losing 6 of 7. They haven’t won 8 games in over a decade.

            Baylor hasn’t won 8 games in 20 years, but they’ve improved to decent under Briles.

            MN won 10 games in 2003 and was ranked #13. IN hasn’t sniffed the top 10 in forever. PU was in the top 10 in 2003 if not more recently and MSU was there last year and have a solid program.

            As for top 10 finishes, OSU, MI, PSU, WI, IA and NE (not in the B10 when they did it, I know) all had at least 2 since 1994. MSU and IL would go back to the 80s, PU and MN to the 60s, and IN and NW to the 40s. MSU, NW and PU all had one since 1994, and multiple top 20s. IL and MN have had 2 top 20s since 1994. IN has 2 since 1979.

            My point wasn’t that other conferences don’t have the same deadweight, but 4 in a conference of 10 that also just lost a king is a problem in terms of percentage. Maybe those 4 will commit more assets to football with the opportunity for improvement.

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          5. duffman

            bullet,

            It is a numbers game, and a bigger boats float the small one’s

            The old B 12 = 3 (UT, OU, UNL) + 1 floater

            in a 12 team league = 4 / 12 or 1/3

            The SEC = 4 (BAMA, LSU, UF, UGA) + 4 floater’s

            in a 12 team league = 8 / 12 or 2/3

            The new B12 = 2 (UT, OU) + ?? floater

            in a 10 team league = 2 / 10 or 1/5

            Look at it this way, if 2 B12 teams are ranked, and 6 SEC teams are ranked, you get 3 times the number of possible games on TV for the SEC. TV is driven by content (something needs to fill dead air space). The SEC wins because getting the ranked team on TV gets the unranked one on as well. I have often seen UK on only because they are playing Florida, Georgia, LSU, or Tennessee. It also helps that the SEC does not want many in state rivals in conference because it gets them an added national slot. Case in point was last season when dog UK was playing UL on a national feed. You get the same for UGA / Ga Tech, UF / FSU, and USC / Clemson, but I used the UK example because you would expect to see UGA / UF / USC in such a slot. I agree that KU / KSU will only hit a local or regional slot, but the SEC (by having more top teams to select from) gets national play for their “lesser children”. I get IU no matter what because of where I am, but when IU is playing UM or tOSU I am not sure how often that goes out across the US. That said, I am fairly sure the IU / PU does not unless it gets picked up by the BTN, and then it is only where you can get the BTN outside the BTN footprint.

            Last season the B12 might lift 3 boats

            UNL vs B12 lesser child
            UT vs B12 lesser child
            OU vs B12 lesser child

            This season the B12 might lift only 2 boats

            UT vs B12 lesser child
            OU vs B12 lesser child

            But in both seasons the SEC lifted at least 4 boats each and every week

            I can remember watching UNL play a B12 because they were on a national feed and I wanted to watch UNL, and not who they were playing. Now if UNL plays I will still watch them, but they will no longer be lifting a B12 boat, because they no longer play in that conference. Simple as that.

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          6. duffman

            brian,

            Trying or not the SEC is blessed with 2 schools with terrible football teams historically, yet they still sell seats when losing (USC and UK). Ask any commentator who travels live from place to place and they all seem to notice this. I do not know if it is because it is SEC football or the city spikes the water supply with some optimism drug but it translates. IU and UK have not been MNC threats in ages, but UK can sell an extra 15 – 20 K seats a game, and talk of expanding to 80 K while I think if the home office in Bloomington said they were going to 80, somebody would be out a job. I would love to have been a fly on the wall when the SEC was discussing adding USC and see just how much the fan demand affected the final decision. I think both USC and UK had 1 win seasons and it lead to talks of expanding their respective stadiums, and both were expanded. If IU, KU, Duke, or Washington State had the same record, you would see them discussing expansion, much less actually doing it.

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          7. Brian

            duffman,

            The SEC has 1 epically bad team, Vanderbilt. KY and MS St are a step above but still bad. SC is another tier up, and more average. These schools sell tickets because the fans love football and don’t have unrealistic expectations. The schools also put money into their programs, even KY.

            I don’t think Baylor, ISU, KS and KSU have shown the same commitment to football, and many of their fans prefer another sport (wrestling, MBB). IU is in that same boat. MN and IL at least seem to be refocusing on football which should help them.

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    2. @bullet – I agree with you to a certain extent. To the extent that there’s a “tulip bulb” craze for sports rights, we could certainly see a crash. That’s probably less of a concern for the Big Ten and SEC, whose underlying values are strong whether it’s a bull or bear market. The ones that benefit the most in a rising market (and in turn, get crushed most in a receding market) are those entities whose underlying values really aren’t that strong. The Big East, for instance, is almost completely banking on a continually rising market for sports rights in general as opposed to actual confidence in its own marketability. They could end up being better off in their next contract than the ACC simply due to market timing, but they also face the most risk in the event of a slowdown in the rise of rights fees.

      Note that NBC isn’t paying more in its new Olympic deal compared to prior Olympics on an inflation-adjusted basis and the NHL’s new deal is really just an inflationary rise compared to the pre-lockout deal that the league had with ESPN. College football has been undervalued relative to other sports considering it gets the highest ratings of any sport outside of the NFL, but as we all know, there are still substantive differences between the values of the various conferences.

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    3. Eric

      I’m personally of the opinion that you won’t a see a new contract as large as the new PAC-12 contract in the next cycle at all (that includes the Big Ten and SEC). This is admittedly mainly due to beliefs on the economy (won’t get into them here as this isn’t the place), but generally speaking, I very much agree on exponential growth and think it applies to these contracts as much as anything else. Anything that rises that fast is due for a crash. It might be to levels that were still high in the past, but it’s going to be significantly less than the top. Where the top is is almost impossible to say, but I don’t think it will take a whole lot to reverse the course we have been on.

      My personal guess (and that’s all it is) is that the Big East should have signed a deal this year with ESPN when the getting was good and a little better than a year from now (when their contract officially comes up to be renegotiated) will be harder and lead to a smaller contract. If my timing is off though, then the exact opposite is true.

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      1. Phil

        Eric-

        The thing is, money isn’t everything when it comes to the Big East contract. People are well aware how far down in the pecking order Big East football is at ESPN, and an opportunity to make the same or even slightly more money, but improve the exposure and promotion of the BE games, make a potential partner like NBC much more attractive.

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      2. As Frank has stated in previous posts, the growth of DVR has made sports exponentially more valuable because it’s one of the few programs people actually watch live and don’t fast forward through the commercials.

        Networks are already trying to find ways around this. I was watching something on FX this weekend and they kept showing annoying ads for the new Apes movie at the bottom of the screen during the program. Whether that’s the answer or something else, you have to believe networks will find a way to cram their advertising down our throats regardless of DVRs. But until they do and until it really catches on, I expect sports contracts to continue to skyrocket.

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  37. footballnut

    Not much to argue against Frank. Everyone outside of Texa$ is glad to have a heavy weight like aTm around just to piss off UT. Heck, even the MO coach had the kahunas to blast UT and the LHN publically for the high school BS. I hope atm stays in the Big 12 just to stand up to the bully. The other schools are too nice and you know where nice guys end up…last place.

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    1. duffman

      Which is why I proposed that Missouri and Kansas go as a pair to the PAC because I feel they would blossom away from UT. I will be watching CU over the next decade to see how well they do as an equal conference partner. Arkansas sure has grown being an equal partner in the SEC, and USC has made up much ground on Clemson since SEC admission. Both were in the same spot Missouri and Kansas find themselves in now. When UNL and CU flew the coop, it was Big 8 teams leaving UT behind, not SWC teams. Missouri and Kansas roots are not that deep as say TAMU and Baylor with UT.

      Sure UNL is a top brand and would land anywhere, but Arkansas, South Carolina, and Colorado did not have the same golden goose to take with them when they moved. They are more like the little engine that could.

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    1. Brian

      http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2011/7/16/2273438/the-price-of-a-victory-in-big-time-college-football

      This blog post has some great pie charts that look at earnings versus donations versus subsidies, with the radius showing the total, on a conference level.

      The most important difference is that the B10 gets much more of its revenue from earnings than other conferences. Other conferences get more from donations. The 3 smaller revenue conferences get a lot more from subsidies than the B10, SEC and B12. Obviously the latest TV deals will change things some, but I still found this interesting.

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  39. bullet

    RIP Bubba Smith Colt, later Raider & Michigan St. great.

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/SPORT/08/03/bubbasmith.obit/

    The Colts that I was a fan of in my youth are passing away. John Mackey, mold breaking tight end was last month. Johnny U. was 2-3 years ago. Tom Matte, Ohio St. great, is about the only one of the stars left (some of the ’58 Colts’ stars of the famous OT championship game vs. the Giants are still around, but that was before my time).

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  40. Pingback: Rational aTm/SEC argument - CycloneFanatic

  41. Pingback: VERY interesting read on Big 12 Realignment/Texas A&M. - HawkeyeNation Forum

  42. BigTenFan

    Question for you Frank:

    https://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2009/12/27/the-big-ten-expansion-index-a-different-shade-of-orange/

    In your “Shades of Orange” article that really made you the internet rock star of conference realignment you rated the schools based on the following criteria:

    Academics (25)
    TV Value (25)
    Football Brand Value (30)
    Basketball Value (10)
    Historic Rivalries/Cultural Fit (5)
    Mutual Interest (5)

    So, in my estimation, UNC/Duke blow MD/VT out of the water in academics (Virginia Tech more than MD obviously), TV Value, & Basketball Value. UNC probably has better or equal football brand than Maryland, yet your reason for excluding the possibility of UNC/Duke to the Big Ten is because they don’t match the two criteria that you weighted to be LEAST important when you began writing on this topic back in 2009?

    What’s changed? To me, you can’t argue for Texas/TAMU back in 2009 (even though they would be quite an odd cultural fit – regardless of what you say of UT, the state of Texas is no more of an odd Big Ten fit than North Carolina), then exclude Duke/UNC today based on the same criteria.

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    1. BigTenFan

      Also, I should note that I’d flip flop the values on TV Brand & Football Brand (Making TV Value worth 30 & Football Brand with 25), especially in the instance of a conference that has an equity share in its own TV network.

      Having a strong negotiating position for out of footprint TV subscribers would be HUGE for the Big Ten. Having Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Duke, UNC, & Notre Dame would ensure that the Big Ten would have a lot of leverage – enough so that the conference could demand much more than the $0.10 per subscriber it currently receives for out of conference subscribers.

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    2. mushroomgod

      Conferences which expand without consideration of “fit” will live to regret it.

      UNC and Duke wouldn’t consider the BIG, but even if they did it would be a terrible idea. UNC has always run whatever “show” it was in. They would NEVER consent to be 2nd banana in the BIG to OSU, UM, PSU…..MD would be a better fit, but they won’t seriously consider the BIG either.

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      1. BigTenFan

        How have they “run” whatever show they were in? They have equal revenue sharing with each member of their current conference….I’m kind of skeptical that they have anywhere near the level of ego of a ND/Texas.

        You’re telling me that UNC/Duke would flat out say NO to an increase in their athletic budget of over $100M during the course of a decade? I have a pretty hard time believing they wouldn’t at least consider that as an option. The ACC is locked into a weak TV contract for a while now and the Big Ten is renegotiating in 5 years.

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        1. duffman

          Guys you keep forgetting that the ACC is the new kid on the block and UNC has not always run the show, much less Duke. Ga Tech was the early power of the current ACC teams (granted they were not in the ACC at the time). Duke vs UNC did not hit the radar till coach K got there. The problem is, and always has been since they started the ACC, is how to straddle the gravy of TV sports, and following the Ivy League to sports mainstream oblivion. I am not so sure the big state schools would be willing to follow duke, boston college, miami, and wake forest to Ivy League oblivion. You can argue academics all you want, but surveys show NC’s boost enrollment demand. If you think of it as a loss leader, sports are free advertising for future students (and they sure open alumni wallets easier, just ask Notre Dame – the only private that has not faded to Ivy League oblivion the way former football beasts Harvard and Yale did. The problem for the ACC privates like WF is that they will always be regional players. Notre Dame is the only “national” player still private, and not already settled in the Big 3 like Stanford, (with its massive endowment) U$C, Northwestern, and Vanderbilt.

          I was serious in my my comment with brian above about IU being grandfathered in. Sure they are a state school (but must share with PU) and have an ELITE basketball (but sad football) in addition to solid academics (not top 20, but ahead of the majority), but would they make the cut today? Everybody keeps talking duke, but duke will never outpace NC ST in producing future alumni. Miami keeps getting love but will they ever produce more alumni every year than the school in Gainesville?

          think of the old saying:

          Make new friends, but keep the old

          One is silver, and the other is gold

          where casual fans = silver, and alumni = gold

          The ACC formed as the “lesser” sports children left the “jocks” in the SEC. 50 years later the “jocks” still get the cheerleader girlfriends and the jock sniffing alumni who write the checks. Unless somebody can show me how the ACC can turn from prey to predator, I remain unsold that the ACC is secure as the B1G, PAC, or SEC. The Ivy League is still around, and they still have great academics, but their football impact died long ago. With Bernie at Minnesota and Stagg at Chicago they were the cock of the walk. Ask either fanbase today (under say 40) and they would just think you were a crazy old coot. These schools are the poster children of teams that never replicated the “magic” coach. Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, U$C, Nebraska, and the real cash cows have all accomplished this trick, and all of them (save U$C) are state schools producing lots of new alumni each and every year.

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        2. Brian

          If you ask fans of the rest of the ACC, the general conspiracy theory is that Tobacco road runs the conference because basketball runs the conference.

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          1. Eric

            I’ve personally find the notion that power is concentrated in any of the conference (Tobacco road, Texas, southern Cal, etc) to be greatly off the mark and more accepted because its constantly repeated on the internet. All of those powers have lost major votes (expansion in the ACC, more equal revenue distribution in the Big 12, much more equal revenue distribution in the PAC-10/12).

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          2. Richard

            Well, power is in Texas because of sheer population, though SoCal, with a lesser percentage of the Pac’s population, actually lost out when the rest of the conference was united against it. NC is a pretty big state, but they’re not a behemoth like Texas or SoCal. Tobacco Road (and their kin to the north, UVa & UMD) do have 4(6) of 12, and originally, 9 votes, but that doesn’t mean UNC dominates anyone. I just don’t see UNC with the ego problems of Texas or ND. They’re more like PSU and UNL, the dominant brand in a region, but when they join a conference of equals, they’ll play along nicely.

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  43. CarnegieNitt

    Has anyone seen this yet?

    http://blogs.sites.post-gazette.com/index.php/sports/pitt-redshirt-diaries/28860-big-east-media-day

    “It is clear football is driving this bus and it is also clear that any and all resistance to any plans for expansion is from the basketball-only members as they have watched their league grow to 17 teams.

    But Pederson isn’t interested in adding just anyone, nor is the rest of the conference, which is where this could get very interesting because behind closed doors, there are less discussions about the Central Florida, Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall, Army, Navy-type teams (you know, the ones which are always thrown out there) and more about the teams which may be ripe to be plucked from their current conferences for whatever reason.

    The dream scenario would be the current league, plus TCU and BC and Maryland and if three schools of that quality were added, then a 12th school could be a Villanova or Central Florida and the conference would clearly be better. However, adding Villanova or Central Florida as the 10th school or adding both as the 10th and 11th schools would not add a thing to the conference and thus is not attractive to anyone at this point.

    Central Florida, in fact, seems to be the only of those Conference USA/MAC/Less than BCS-League type schools that has any reasonable amount of support from the current membership and even then, there seems to be a wide variety of opinions on exactly what they’d bring. (Pederson said he would like another presence in Florida, but would not comment specifically about UCF so you do the math). Nobody seems to want Memphis or any of those other schools, though there are some discussions still about Navy.

    The other group of schools the Big East is keeping an eye on is the trio of Big 12 schools – Missouri, Kansas and Kansas State – which could be left out in the cold if the conference falls apart, which, given recent unrest about the Texas Longhorn Network and the unfair advantage it provides for Texas in both money and recruiting, that isn’t a pipe dream.”

    It is hard to see there being enough money per school from a new contract to peal away ACC teams, but those 3 Big XII schools might be interested. Is there a chance the Big East could get a Pac-12 type deal? I lurk here a lot, and am interested in any and all incite you folks might have.

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    1. 84Lion

      The dream scenario would be the current league, plus TCU and BC and Maryland
      That’s some pretty big dreamin’. One thing to pluck TCU from a non-AQ conf, quite another to lure BC and Maryland from a nice gig in the ACC.

      Isn’t Pederson the same guy that presided over the Nebraska debacle with Bill Callahan? Given that I’m not too sold on any comments or thoughts he might have.

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      1. Phil

        The feeling among myself and other Rutgers fans I know about BE expansion candidates:

        1-Adding TCU as the ninth team was crucial and there is no reason to go above that now unless it helps the TV contract value (more inventory). Adding more teams won’t save the Big East from a future raid.

        2-There is NO shot at BC or Maryland, but-

        3-If focusing on BC or MD keeps the idiots in Providence from dumb ideas like adding Villanova that is great and-

        4-Maybe in a few years the Big 12 blows up and the BE takes a run at the KU and KSU type schools, but-

        5-Whatever expansion that caused the Big 12 to blow up could come back to destroy the Big East with Big 10 and ACC raids, so-

        6-I’ll just have another beer and stop worrying about it.

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    2. bullet

      “the unfair advantage it provides for Texas in both money and recruiting”

      I keep hearing this, but I have yet to figure out how that goes away if a school goes to a different conference than Texas. I don’t know how joining Ohio St. or Alabama or Florida in a conference doesn’t get you in the same position where you are with a university with that has lots more revenue. Conference distributions are currently about 7% of Texas revenue. Its the tickets sales and donations that set the kings apart in the revenue category.

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      1. Brian

        I think the truly unfair parts people are talking about are:

        1. Making fans of other B12 teams pay UT, via the LHN, to see road B12 contests. Until they negotiate a deal that doesn’t make others pay for the LHN to see these games, it’s unfair.

        2. Boosting the value of the LHN by having B12 contests on it when only UT profits from that. The B12 agreed to this, but it is unfair. They need to form a B12 network to act as a counterbalance, and require equal carriage and pricing (or better).

        3. Allowing UT to promote their recruits by game selection and interviews while ignoring those committed elsewhere. This is not an issue for a year, and maybe never if the NCAA decides against the LHN, but it would have been unfair.

        The facts that UT is more popular and in a much bigger state are just reality, and they clearly provide advantages in money and recruiting. Actively hindering the rest of the conference while further helping UT seems a little unfair.

        I think the B12 imposed much of the unfairness on themselves with bad decisions, though, and much of it can be corrected.

        The other stuff is mostly whining from jealous fans of other schools.

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        1. bullet

          1 & 2-the other schools have the same rights if they form a network, which they have been talking about. Stop whining and start acting. Its the same deal if they play a Pac 12 team or a Big 10 team.

          3. Fair question. Remains to be seen how it works out.

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          1. Brian

            I don’t think the others thought conference games would be part of the deal. As I said, they should start a B12 network and provide some balance.

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  44. Pingback: Rational aTm/SEC argument - CycloneFanatic

    2. Brian

      Why are they so PR challenged?

      They just had media days, with national attention from everyone who matters. Why not announce it then, rather than now when everyone is prepping for the start of fall practice (or already started)?

      Let the campaign for a second locked rivalry, at least for WI/IA, begin in earnest.

      Richard, I think you need to roll out your plan for revised locked rivals with a second rivalry added again, too.

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      1. bullet

        Change the divisions and you don’t need that. Go to KISS or the less balanced WI/NW switch. With KISS you could eliminate protected rivalries and play everyone 4 of 6 years.

        SEC switched from 2 protected rivalries due to competitive imbalance. Auburn had FL and GA every year. It really does make too much of a difference.

        And if they expect ND to come on board some time (less likely with 9 game schedule), they would likely go back to a 5-1-3 so you still get teams at least every other year.

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        1. Brian

          You could, but you do eliminate several minor rivalries that way as well as gain all the obvious problems with E/W that have been discussed in detail previously.

          2 locked rivals in an 8 game schedule is a bad choice, since it is really 7 of 8 games locked. It really slows down the cycle and can skew the balance of schedules. A 9 game schedule makes it a lot more manageable, with 2 rotating opponents among the 4 non-locked opponents.

          I suspect they will only lock WI/IA and let the rest have 3 rotating games.

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    3. Adam

      Not at all a fan of 9 games. The only justification for having an uneven number of home/road games is if you can have a true round robin.* Thus, 8 games is OK, 10 games is OK, and 11 games is OK, but 9 is not. What if your good year (good mix of seniors and underclassmen, prior experience, intangibles, etc.) comes in a year when you play an extra road game and that costs you the title? It doesn’t matter that it evens out over time; it needs to be as fair as possible every year. Of course, there is some unfairness intrinsic to the competition (like which teams you play if you play less than a true round robin), but that can’t be helped. We can choose not to impose this sort of unfairness upon ourselves.

      *-a bigger number of games would matter less. Playing 25 home and 26 on the road shouldn’t be any big deal competitively; it matters a lot more when you’re talking 4 home and 5 road.

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      1. Brian

        Your argument is based on the assumption that all games are equal.

        As an OSU fan, I’d take MI, WI and PU at home (PSU, IL and IN on the road) in a 4 home game year and vice versa in a 5 home game year. I’d hope the other 3 crossovers are split so we don’t get MI and NE on the road the same year.

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        1. Eric

          It might work out that way sometimes, but it’s also going to work out that sometimes the team with the 4 home games also has the tougher roads games, which makes things especially unfair. Note: I am not saying I disagree with going to 9 (I’m split), just think the 5/4 is going to be an issue with divisional play.

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          1. Brian

            I’m not a huge fan of 9, but I can see the advantages of it. The 5/4 split is going to be an issue, but so was when certain teams missed OSU and MI in the same year. The league could choose to make balance by careful selection when scheduling, or just let what happens happen.

            I think the longer term issue is the six extra B10 games causing six more B10 losses. Borderline teams are going to miss out on some bowls, and that will reflect badly on the conference as well as get some coaches fired.

            The other big issue is that if all else remains the same, the B10 and P12 will both play 9 games and a CCG. The B12 will play 9 games. The ACC and SEC will play 8 games and a CCG, and the BE just the 8 games. If expansion allows, I’d expect the BE to move to 9 games eventually.
            The inequities in the path to the BCS will cause some problems as the ACC may get more at-large berths with B10 and P12 teams knocking each other out.

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          2. greg

            Brian,

            We’ve discussed the 9 game schedule repeatedly and I’ve repeatedly pointed out that it is not a loss of 6 home games and not an addition of 6 losses, as much as I wish it were. A team like Iowa will be dropping a BCS home and home from their schedule, as I imagine it will be for NE, MI, OSU, PSU, WI. They’ll all stick with 2 money games and one home and home on their schedules. NW will probably lose a HaH as they don’t do money games. MN, IN, PU, IL and MSU are a mixed bag.

            Optimistically, the B10 is going from 9-3 or 10-2 in that 4th OOC game to 6-6 in the added B10 game. So 3 or 4 additional losses on the season. That will occasionally lose a bowl bid, and not very occasionally drop a bowl slot, since they are fighting for bowl slots within the conference.

            You could argue that the conference will occasionally lose a 2nd BCS team due to it, but I think it is unlikely. I do agree that 9 conf games + CCG could have some unintended BCS impact.

            Iowa will likely stop playing ISU annually, and play them 2 out of 4 years. At least that is what the message board denizens believe. A lot of them are in favor of 9 games, as a lot of them want the ISU game dropped as Iowa “has nothing to gain in playing them.”

            I don’t think a 9 game conf schedule is enormously unfair. It is a factor, but not huge.

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          3. @greg – I agree with you. The concern about losing a 2nd BCS bowl berth, in particular, is very much overstated by a lot of fans. A 2nd BCS bid has as much to do with the ticket-selling and TV drawing ability of the team itself as merit, which means the Big Ten will always be right in line with the SEC as virtually guaranteed to have 2 BCS teams per year. In Stanford’s case last year, the 9-game conference schedule actually *got* them a BCS bid, as the computer ranking got them a #4 BCS ranking (which is a guaranteed berth) even though the human voters had them at #5 and Wisconsin at #4. Stanford could very well have been passed over for a BCS bid for larger and better traveling schools if they hadn’t received a guaranteed spot.

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          4. Brian

            greg,

            It’s impossible to know what games will be lost from the schedule, so 6 games is a worst case scenario (and what you should plan for). It is a guaranteed addition of 6 conference losses, and a subtraction of up to 12 OOC losses (but usually much fewer). Everyone knows this, but it seems very unwieldy to type out the whole thing every time. Saying the loss of 6 home games and the addition of 6 losses is shorthand for all of that, and you know that it is.

            Yes, even if you do correct math based on the exact historical trends of B10 OOC scheduling and winning percentage, it will cost some bowl slots for what were 6-6 teams. It will also take some of the prestige off of some of the higher placed teams.

            I not only could, I would in fact argue that the ninth game will have some negative BCS impact in terms of at-large bids. On the bright side, it may help boost some 1 loss champs into the NCG, too. Having to go 10-0 in conference to play in the NCG is the thing the B10 has to avoid. 9-0 was already asking a lot. Heck, most years 8-0 is too much.

            I don’t know what IA/ISU will do. At least at first, I suspect they would take occasional 2 year breaks (maybe play 8 of 10 years). I think politics will force IA/ISU to stay regular, though. It may drop to 2 of 4 for all I know. Are only the IA people saying that, or do ISU fans predict that as well?

            As for how big of a factor nine games is, we’ll see. How would IA playing at NE, MI, MSU, OSU and PSU, with PU, NW, MN and WI at home sound? Do you think IA fans might complain?

            A 9 game schedule could do that.

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          5. greg

            I’m not agreeing to “the loss of 6 home games” as shorthand because its a lie. Go ahead and claim its a loss of 3 home games and 3 extra losses.

            ISU fans know that the game won’t be played every year, but I think they picture it being played more often than Iowa fans. Iowa and Nebraska were their two big money home games, and now they’ve lost Nebraska, so there will be pressure to play often.

            The extreme home and road scheduling is a red herring. The same thing can and did happen under 8 games. In 2009, Iowa faced MSU, Wisky, PSU and OSU on the road, and everyone thought it was unfair. Of course, Iowa managed to go 10-2 and win 3 of 4 road games, losing at OSU in OT when Iowa had a RS FR QB making his first career start. Last year, we had the tough games at home with all our big names returning and went 8-5.

            I’m not saying schedule strength doesn’t matter, but 9 games doesn’t greatly change it.

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          6. Brian

            greg,

            Well, I’m not going to stop using “the loss of 6 home games” as shorthand, either, because its a reasonable approximation of the situation. Once we have several years of data I’d use the actual number if someone calculates it (compare home games per year in the next 6 years versus the first few years after going to 9), as well as the actual number of extra losses. Until then, it’s 6 and 6.

            ISU has valued that game more than IA for as long as I remember. The Board of Regents hired an arbitrator to get the series to resume after 1 game in the 70s. However, both ADs seem to value the series. I’d expect them to play at least 50% of the time, so every player gets a home game and a road game in the series. Iowa can sub in another team for a home and home every so often.

            Yes, I showed the extreme schedule. It might have been a red herring except, as you proceeded to show by giving an example, the B10 does exactly that on occasion with the current 8 game schedule. That makes my 9 game example entirely plausible.

            And as you know, the fans bitch about how unfair that is with the 8 game schedule. When you add in a fifth difficult road game, the fans are going to explode. The ninth game doesn’t always change the difficulty of the schedule, but it can have very negative effects unless the B10 makes sure to avoid it (which they have never shown any tendency to do).

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      2. bullet

        I think the road/home is overblown. Teams don’t win going 5-4 or 6-3. Usually its a couple of teams competing. Then one or the other will always play the home game (unless its UT/OU or GA/FL).

        I like 9 games in that it generally strengthens the schedules. The real downside in my view is that it increases the liklihood of championship rematches in a 12 team league.

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        1. Brian

          With the locked rivals and division alignments, the champs are going to face several top teams each year. OSU will have to face MI, PSU and WI, and sometimes NE and IA, just as an example. Home field in one more of those games could easily be the difference between division champs and second place.

          The B10 last year gave a good example. MSU beat WI at home and lost badly at IA. WI lost at MSU but beat OSU at home. Home field made a big difference in those games. OSU might have been undefeated if WI came to OSU. WI might have been perfect if MSU came to them. 1 extra road game can be a big deal.

          It’s not the end of the world, and the better team should win regardless, but the wrong schedule can really make it difficult.

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    4. Richard

      OK, here’s what I don’t get:

      If competitive balance is so important (and that’s the reason for the wacky divisions, which I object to more, as well as the single protected cross-divisional game), why the heck are half the teams in each division getting 5 home games instead of all the schools in a division getting 4 or 5? I understand that to achieve that, the schedules would be more wacky (some schools would have 3 interdivisional games at home some years and 3 away on others), but it’s more fair, no?

      Heck, even if you have half the division play more home games, why not have the traditional powers all with the same type of schedule? Why not have PSU, OSU, and Wisconsin all have 5 home games together or 4 home games together?

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        1. Eric

          No really good ways giving preexisting schedules is my guess.

          You’re right people will bitch and personally I’ll admit I’m probably be looking for reasons to till they put Ohio State and Michigan in the same division (sadly not going to happen, but that decision probably has permanently put a dark mark on my opinion of the conference).

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          1. bullet

            With all the talk about balancing the schedule, noone does a logical schedule that would create more geographic and competitive balance. They all do it random.

            With the 5-1-2 and 5-1-3 you can do it. But for a simple example of what I am talking about look at what the Big 12 could have done with their 5-0-3:
            North teams would play either:
            Texas, Oklahoma St., Texas Tech or
            OU, Texas A&M, Baylor

            South teams would play either:
            UNL, KU, MU or
            CU, KSU, ISU (or flip MU and ISU)

            Instead, teams frequently got Texas and OU or CU and UNL in the same year, much the way the random B10 schedule ended up giving a Purdue or NW a year with only 1 of the Big 3 (and a trip to the Rose Bowl). Random may be “fair” but if you know anything about randomness, you understand that it results in lots of clumps, such as getting all of the Big 3 in the Big 10 schedule or only 1.

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          2. Brian

            I’m with you 100% on this. They are paying people salaries to make these schedules. Why can’t they figure this out?

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      2. Eric

        It would definitely be better for competitive balance to do any of your suggestions. I’m guessing the reason that didn’t work out was fitting in all the existing future schedules they didn’t want to alter.

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      3. bullet

        If you did it that way, 3 would have to have 3 out of 4 out of division games at home (and in the other division the 3 with 3 division home games would have 1 of 4 out of division home). It would be really awkward.

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  47. Alan from Baton Rouge

    The USA Today Coaches’ Pre-season Poll is out.

    http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/football/usatpoll.htm

    Rankings by conference:

    SEC (8)
    #2 Alabama
    #4 LSU
    #12 South Carolina
    #14 Arkansas
    #19 Auburn
    #20 Miss State
    #22 Georgia
    #23 Florida

    B1G (5)
    #10 Wisconsin
    #11 Nebraska
    #16 Ohio State
    #17 Michigan State
    #25 Penn State

    Big XII-2 (5)
    #1 Oklahoma
    #8 Oklahoma State
    #9 Texas A&M
    #21 Mizzou
    #24 Texas

    12-Pac (2)
    #3 Oregon
    #6 Stanford

    ACC (2)
    #5 Florida State
    #13 Virginia Tech

    MWC (2)
    #7 Boise State
    #15 TCU

    Ind.
    #18 Notre Dame

    Big East – zero (West VA is #27 in also receiving votes)

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  48. Ross

    I have to think the B1G beginning a 9-game conference schedule the year after its contract opens for negotiation isn’t a coincidence. The lost home game is a loss in money for ticket sales, so they must be expecting the 9 games to increase the value of their contract to make it worth it in 2017, not before.

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    1. bullet

      That’s consistent with the discussion of the Pac 12 and Big 12 contracts. Since B10 has BTN, it may have even more of an impact with them.

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    2. Brian

      2017 is the start of the new deal. Plus, schools needed time to make space in their OOC schedules.

      The conference loses roughly 6 games (12 home OOC games become 6 B10 games), so the inventory is slightly smaller. However, the quality of the games should be better which boosts the value (assuming bad OOC games are dropped and not the marquee ones).

      Schools will lose a home game every other year, but the attendance will bump up for the replacement games which will help the smaller schools especially. Also, this allows all the schools to play more often which was a concern for some ADs during expansion. It has the side benefit of potentially making schedules more balanced (you only miss 2 schools, not 3, so you can’t miss OSU, PSU and WI) if they are smart.

      The key is for them to balance the number of home games with who the games are against. If you only get 4 home games, it should include the locked rival but only 2 in division (including the second best divisional rivalry – so OSU would get MI, WI and one of IN/PU/IL while the next year they get PSU). 3 division games at home would mean a ton of travel for most teams for the crossover games, and it’s better for ticket sales to spread rivalry games out.

      Now they need to discuss locking WI/IA and moving up B10 games into weeks 2 and 3.

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          1. bullet

            If everyone is playing the same Saturday that’s 3 time slots on the BTN, 1 on ABC, 2 on ESPN at 11 am and 1 other ESPN game. That’s 7 of the 12. If everyone is playing 7 home games, on the average you will have 9 games a week, leaving two unusable (4-4 league and 3-1 home away ooc gives 7 home games).

            Now some teams have byes, but it won’t always work out. And there will sometimes be 10 home games against MAC teams in one week.

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    3. Eric

      I figured this would be something that was generally thought of as positive, but flipping through some Big Ten boards, most seem not to like the move feeling its going to put a big hit on nonconference play or are like me and pretty mixed. I see positive comments, but they are in the overall minority I think.

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      1. Brian

        Last I saw, the ESPN B10 blog poll was about 60-40 in favor of 9 games. I think a part of the message board effect is that the schools that benefit the most from this are the ones with the fewest fans.

        From a purely selfish standpoint, the top teams want as many home games as possible and can afford to buy home games. They draw more for a spring game than others can for a B10 game. It’s schools that struggle with attendance and the cost of buying home games that will really like this (IN, NW, even MN and PU).

        The other problem is for the 4 teams with a locked OOC rival (MI, MSU and PU with ND, IA with ISU). The ninth game will make scheduling any other AQs more challenging. Even if their locked OOC rival can fit their schedule so they have 5 home games locked in every year, that means no other home and home series if they want 7 home games. They’ll have to take breaks in their rivalry or play only 6 home games some years. I don’t think MI, MSU or IA can afford that.

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        1. Richard

          Well, MSU & Michigan will take breaks with ND (they have before). Only change is that the breaks may be more frequent (4 out of every 6 years, for instance). PU seems to have home-and-homes with the likes of Rice, Cincy, and Marshall, so that’s not a big loss. That leaves Iowa.

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          1. Brian

            Yes, MI and MSU will probably take breaks but it’s still an issue for them. Some fans don’t want the breaks, and others will mourn the years without a big intersectional game. Regardless, my point was that the bigger schools have more reasons to bitch so the message boards probably reflect that. It’s not like NW and IN have equal representation with OSU and NE on most message boards.

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          2. Eric

            Maybe the case, but they all show up more in polls so I don’t think big school vs. small school is necessarily it. It could be though that people who don’t like it are more likely to complain than those who like it are to praise it.

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          3. Richard

            UM is likely to line up one big OOC game a year, so if ND drops off, it’s almost certain that a team like ND will come on.

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          4. Ross

            As it stands, ND is home in 2017 while Michigan only has 4 home B1G games that year. So it seems Michigan is trying to get 7 home games a year by having ND at home in the even years plus 2 directional schools. I don’t see them dropping ND because of this. If they want someone other than ND in that slot, sure, but ND fits fine with the 9 game schedule right now.

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          6. Richard

            Not sure why it’s so bad for MSU or ND. ND has wanted to play MSU less frequently. MSU would have an extra B10 game that would most of the time take the place of an average BCS opponent, some times a patsy, and sometimes ND.

            For instance, since going to a 12 game schedule, in 2010, the conference game would have replaced the FAU game in Detroit. In 2009, it would have replaced one of the 2 MAC games. In 2008 the Cal game. In 2006 & 2007 the Pitt game.

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          7. cutter

            Michigan Athletic Director David Brandon has been quoted in the papers as saying he doesn’t want to continue playing Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State either all at home or all on the road each season. That’s what the schedules now look like from 2011 to 2014.

            I suspect the Big Ten Conference will split up the Nebraska and Ohio State games so that Michigan plays one at home and one on the road. UM hosts OSU in the odd numbered years, whhich means the Wolverines will playing the Cornhuskers in Ann Arbor in the even numbered years. If that happens, Michigan will probably play Nebraska back-to-back in Lincoln in 2016 and 2017 to accomodate the change.

            If the current schedule rotations for Michigan State and Iowa remain intact, that means Michigan will play those two squads and Nebraska on the road starting 2017. The other two teams in the Legends Division–Minnesota and Northwestern–will be home games for UM. MSU, IA and UN-L are all scheduled to play five home conference games in 2017.

            I expect Wisconsin and Penn State will rotate two years on/two years off on Michigan’s schedule with Indiana/Illinois/Purdue playing UM four times every six years. This assumes that Delany is able to implement what he said in the press about not wanting to have a second protected inter-divisional game (which I’m 95% sure is exactly what’s going to happen).

            If the Big Ten and Michigan agree to split the Notre Dame, Nebraska, Ohio State, Wisconsin/Penn State games two home and two away each season, the Michigan will have ND and OSU at home in Ann Arbor and Nebraska and Wisconsin/Penn State on the road. Since UW should appear on UM’s schedule in 2015/6, PSU will probably be on UM’s 2017 schedule.

            Here’s my best guess on Michigan’s home and road games for 2017:

            Home (7): Notre Dame, Ohio State, Northwestern, Minnesota, 1 of Indiana/Illinois/Purdue, 2 MAC teams or 1 MAC/1 Other Conference (C-USA, Mountain West)

            Away (5): at Nebraska, at Penn State, at Iowa, at Michigan State, at 1 of Indiana/Illinois/Purdue

            The other possibility if all these assumption are solid is that Penn State becomes a home game for Michigan and 2 of Indiana/Illinois/Purdue are on the road. If that’s done, it’s an acknowledgement that the division road schedule Michigan faces in 2017 is pretty difficult and the conference wants to balance things out somewhat. However, it does mean having ND, OSU and PSU all in Ann Arbor–the same problem Brandon identified from the 2011-14 schedules.

            Michigan and Notre Dame are scheduled to go on a hiatus in 2018/19. UM will schedule a major non-conference opponent to replace ND for those two seasons. The scheduling agreement between the two programs allows them to give a four-year notice to one another about terminating or altering the series. What happens beyond 2020 will be up to the two schools’ respective athletic directors.

            We’ll see what happens, but the Big Ten hasn’t finalized any future schedules yet beyond 2015. They’ll look at the second protected rivalry game (although Delany is against it) and they’ll look at possibly having early conference games in the first three weeks of September. Once all that gets finalized, Michigan and the other Big Ten schools will be able to flesh out their future non-conference schedules going forward.

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          8. Eric

            cutter,

            I’m pretty sure they’d either do a full even rotation among remaining teams or less likely a 2nd crossover. I’d be stunned if they had Michigan playing Penn State/Wisconsin more than Indiana/Purdue/Illinois. That means 6 times in 10 years for all 5 teams.

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          9. cutter

            For Eric:

            JIm Delany has been quoted as saying that he feels a second permanent inter-divison crossover game would erode competitive equity. I know they’re still looking at scheduling combinations in the wake of the accouncement, but if Delany has his way about it, then there won’t be a second protected rival in the schedule. For an excellent article on this issue (which include Delany’s quotes), go to http://thegazette.com/2011/08/04/b1g-second-protected-rivalry-looks-dead-but-still-a-good-idea/

            You’re correct about teams playing one another a minimum of six times in a ten-year period. That’s been acknowledged in a number of sources, including this Nebraska newspaper: http://www.omaha.com/article/20110804/BIGRED/708049773/-1#ninth-league-game-has-nonconference-impact

            Since television is one of the main drivers behind the nine-game schedule, it actually makes perfectly good sense in the eyes of the conference for Michigan to play Penn State and Wisconsin two years on/two years off. Add in Notre Dame (or another major non-conference opponent), Ohio State and Nebraska to that list and there’s four games right there that will draw a high level of interest pretty much right off the bat. I have little doubt that Delany, et. al. will want to put the best inventory of games out there–just look at Nebraska’s schedule this year for a gllimpse of what he may want to do when the 9-game schedule starts in 2017.

            I actually like the idea of Michigan having a second permanent crossover division rival that was outlined in the article above. With annual games against Ohio State and Illinois from the Leaders Division, UM could rotate two on/two off with the remaining four teams from that division(Penn State/Indiana, Wisconsin/Purdue). For whatever reason, though, Delany seems to be against it at this point. I don’t know if it’s due to television considerations or perhaps he feels he needs to give the non-traditional powers easier conference schedules so that they have a better chance of being bowl eligibile. To be frank, I don’t know if the latter is even possible–I throw that out there as a possible consideration.

            We’ll know more about how this goes when the conference formally releases its future schedules. I have to imagine it’ll have to be done sooner rather than later–especially for the 2015/16 seasons.

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          10. Eric

            Cutter,

            I guess my point is that if they do it the way they have announced, it won’t be flipping between Penn State/Wisconsin for Michigan for one game and Illinois/Purdue/Indiana for the other. It will be 2 of the 5 each year and that will still leave both Penn State and Wisconsin out on some occasions (not often, but it will happen).

            They theoretically could put it like that where some teams you see 4 out of 10 years (Indiana/Purdue/Illinois in your example) and others you see 1/2 the time (Penn State/Wisconsin), but I think that defeats one of the biggest reason on going to 9 games which is to play everyone more often. If you go with that strategy, every player still would be missing a school if they played in the conference for 4 years.

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          11. Richard

            Actually, if they do it the way it’s announced, UM will play Wiscy and PSU both 60% of the time, so some years, UM gets both. I agree that there’s no way there will be an uneven split of UM’s opponents (Why would the B10 do that? “To accommodate UM” isn’t a sufficient reason).

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    1. Alan from Baton Rouge

      Brian – Its not good. Steve Kragthorpe has been diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. His family has certainly had a rough last year, as Krags took off last season to care for his wife that had been diagnosed with MS.

      Krags main purpose in coming to LSU was to tutor the QBs. During the Spring, he also simplified Gary Crowton’s offense that hasn’t been good since Matt Flynn left for Green Bay. Krags will stay on as QB coach and be in the press box on game days, but the stress and extra time demanded of an OC look to be too much for a man dealing with Parkinson’s. OL coach Greg Studwara will serve as interim OC for the season. Coach Stud was the OC for Bowling Green from 2003 to 2006, prior to coming to LSU.

      The offense will be fine if QB Jordan Jefferson shows improvement. The Tigers sucked on offense last year, but went 11-2 and finished the season ranked #8. The Mad Hatter has assembled a veteran coaching staff that works well together. In the end, Les will still be making the tough calls, so I like the Tigers’ chances.

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      1. Brian

        I just didn’t know if switching from the QB coach to the OL coach was expected to make a big shift in focus or not. Most staffs develop the game plan as a team anyway, so that shouldn’t be too bad. Does this change the length of the leash for Jefferson?

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        1. Alan from Baton Rouge

          Brian – who the QB is, and when (or if) he gets yanked is completely the Mad Hatter’s call. A change in the OC doesn’t shorten or lengthen JJ’s leash.

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  51. cutter

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/george_schroeder/08/05/pac-12-larry-scott-realignment/index.html#ixzz1UAPV1ofr

    Hold the parade: Pac-12 no longer in plum realignment position

    Larry Scott was explaining his vision for the future of college athletics, and anyone who had been paying attention these last couple of years — meaning, since Scott became involved with college athletics — knew it was important to, well, pay attention. The Pac-12 commissioner has been on the cutting edge, and we’re not talking about the two cellphones or the iPad he brought to the table. He’s been cutting the edge. If someone wanted to call him visionary, it would be hard to argue at this point.

    Consider the Pac-12’s ginormous TV rights deal ($3 billion over 12 years from an unprecedented combination with competitors ESPN and Fox) and the announcement last week of a Pac-12 Network that will somehow be built with four cable providers as partners, resulting in six regional channels and an overarching national outlet. It’s unclear how much the conference will make from the arrangement, but it owns the network and clearly expects to reel in revenue.

    Which is why ears perked up at the Pac-12’s media day last week when Scott said even more money is out there, waiting to be had, as soon as college sports becomes less fragmented. That’s his word, “fragmented,” and it was followed by “consolidation.” Yes, Scott was talking expansion again. Conference realignment. Those oft-predicted super-conferences. And the Pac-12’s place in that eventuality — inevitability, Scott would probably say instead.

    “I think market forces over time will drive more consolidation,” Scott said. “It just makes sense.”

    But here’s the thing: When it happens, the Pac-12 doesn’t appear as well-positioned as it was a year ago.

    Don’t misunderstand. It’s safe to say Scott is thinking a step or two ahead of most of us. The Pac-12 Network deal, for example, includes a clause withholding for the conference rights to devices that have not yet been invented (though some suspect Scott is about to invent them). But when it comes to conference realignment and further expansion, Scott’s big push came last summer. His aggressive attempt to lure Texas and five other Big 12 schools almost ushered in the radical change he still foresees: four 16-team conferences filled with haves, and the have-nots left behind on some different, lower tier. But when the Pac-16 didn’t become reality then, the chances were greatly reduced of it happening later.

    Maybe we’ve known it ever since Scott flew back to California after a whirlwind tour of the heartland. He brought with him Colorado, and soon after added Utah. Not Texas. Not Oklahoma. He’d just missed cutting the Big 12 in half and creating the first super-conference, which would probably have been the catalyst for a tectonic shift in the college landscape. But last month, when the aftershocks from last summer rumbled again, the Pac-12 didn’t seem to be in the picture.

    Texas A&M regents got riled up about Texas’ ambitious plans for The Longhorn Network, including broadcasts of high school games and at least one game against a Big 12 opponent. Suddenly, the Aggies were talking about the SEC again. Would they leave and perhaps take Oklahoma with them? Ultimately, nothing happened. Big 12 athletic directors emerged from a meeting this week with a one-year moratorium on the high school games and with proclamations of fidelity and unity, but let’s be real: The whole arrangement remains shaky at best. All it takes is for those well-placed Aggies to get good and mad again, and the Big 12 might be no more.

    Asked about the brouhaha, Scott took a barely veiled shot at the conference’s forced marriage and the concessions it made last summer to keep Texas in the fold.

    “I’m not surprised that there will be growing pains and issues,” Scott said. “As you know, we have a very different philosophy about how our conference operates. It’s why it was important for me to move to equal revenue-sharing. It’s why I’ve been insistent all along it was gonna be a conference network. I think that’s the appropriate way to do things as a conference and a formula for success and harmony.”

    As opposed to, say, allowing a member to start its own network and throw its considerable weight around. The Big 12’s imbalance hasn’t changed. At some point — and that point will come — when expansion occurs again, the Big 12 looks like the league that gets plucked by other, more stable conferences. The Pac-12 probably won’t be plucking, though. Scott says the conference is satisfied with 12 members, and he’s moved on to other initiatives, but that’s not why further expansion probably won’t happen in the league.

    “I want to make (the Pac-12) the most coveted place in the country to be,” Scott says. “A successful conference so that whenever things shake free … whenever there is realignment, I know we’re gonna be in great shape because I know we’re gonna be a desirous place for schools to be.”

    The remade Pac-12 already fits that description. But the question is how many desirous schools would become available. It might be as simple as geography.

    The Pac-16 that almost was would have functioned as essentially two separate conferences, with the eastern division consisting of the former Big 12 schools along with Arizona and Arizona State and the western division featuring the old Pac-8 members. The arrangement would have been especially good for sports other than football, when travel in the huge geographic footprint would have otherwise been an issue. But now Texas is out. The Longhorn Network might or might not be a long-term game-changer for the Longhorns, but as long as it exists, Texas and the Pac-12 won’t get together. Not that he needed to say it, but Scott told Kirk Bohls of the Austin American-Statesman as much last week.

    Unquestionably, Texas was the plum in Scott’s big plan for the Pac-16. (Texas’ only realistic move might be to become an independent, though it’s hard to see that as a desirable option.) Without the Longhorns, expansion looks a lot less delicious. And the lessened interest might be mutual. Texas A&M’s infatuation with the SEC might not be the smartest idea, but it’s real enough, at least with a serious segment of Aggies. Meanwhile, Oklahoma isn’t enthused about the idea of leaving the Big 12 behind, period.

    If there’s an attractive scenario for Scott and the Pac-12, though, it’s this: There’s some sentiment in Norman that Oklahoma would remain more interested in moving to the Pac-12 (or Pac-whatever) than the SEC. Even without Texas, a package of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas Tech might work.

    But without some combination of Texas, Oklahoma and A&M, as Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News laid it out in a comprehensive breakdown of the possibilities, the Pac-12 would be “woefully short of quality options.” Although the TV rights deals could and would be renegotiated if the Pac-12 expanded, it’s hard to see how those other options would add enough value to offset the extra slices of the revenue pie.

    The upshot is this: When the next round of expansion occurs, we should be mildly surprised if Scott makes big moves. Given the new TV deals, expansion probably isn’t necessary for the league’s future success. But if consolidation is inevitable, the Pac-12 doesn’t appear to have nearly as many attractive options as the Big Ten or SEC would. Scott seems boxed in by geography and recent events — not that he’d admit it.

    “However and whenever this consolidation (occurs) that we want to act on,” Scott said, “we’ll be in a good spot.”

    Could be, of course, he’s got the Sooners on speed dial. Or maybe the guy really is a visionary and we’re just not thinking big enough. Scott continues to talk about expanding the Pac-12’s footprint into the Pacific Rim. Could he know something we don’t about the future football plans of, say, Beijing Normal or Shanghai Sports University?

    From Jon Wilner’s blog: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2011/08/01/actionreaction-pac-12-expansion-options-or-lack-thereof/

    Action/reaction: Pac-12 expansion options … or lack thereof

    Posted by Jon Wilner on August 1st, 2011 at 8:09 am | Categorized as Big 12 football, Larry Scott, Oklahoma football, Pac-12 Conference, Pac-12 Network, Pac-12 basketball, Pac-12 football, Texas football

    *** 5:15 p.m. update (and I should have made this very clear from the outset): Oklahoma and Texas state politics NOT included in the following discussion.

    Thoughts on the landscape …

    Action: Commissioner Larry Scott tells the Austin American Statesman that the Pac-12 Network likely kills any chance of Texas joining the Pac-12.

    Reaction I: Scott’s comments make official what has been apparent for months: The Pac-12 Network (in the works since early May) and the Longhorn Network cannot co-exist. There are simply too many philosophical and financial conflicts.

    Reaction II: The Pac-12 probably will reach a point in the intermediate future when it must determine whether expansion (to 14 or 16 teams) is worthwhile without Texas. The answer depends on which schools are available.

    Reaction III: If the Big 12 dissolves — I should say, when the Big 12 dissolves — and Oklahoma and Texas A&M head to the SEC, then the Pac-12 will be woefully short of quality options. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are worth far less to the conference without Texas and Oklahoma … if they are worth anything at all. The beauty of the Pac-16 arrangement was the natural division split with the Arizona schools joining Colorado, UT, A&M, Tech, and the Oklahoma schools in the east. It made perfect sense from the standpoint of natural rivalries and travel costs for Olympic sports.

    Reaction IV: Without Texas, A&M and Oklahoma, what combination of schools could meet the league’s academic threshold and form a seven- or eight-team eastern division that encompasses enough TV households to justify the additional revenue splits? I’ve always thought Missouri would be attractive from the standpoint of academics and TV market, but Mizzou would push the Pac-12 far beyond its natural footprint. San Diego State? Nope, the conference has no interest in a CSU school and the Aztecs don’t bring additional TV sets (San Diego is already part of the Pac-12 footprint). Boise State? Please. If the conference had any interest in the Broncos, it would have pursued them last summer. (BSU doesn’t bring enough TV sets, doesn’t cut the mustard academically and doesn’t have a Pac-caliber broad-based athletic program.) Frankly, I’m not sure there are any good options for the Pac-12 with Texas, Oklahoma and A&M all off the table.

    Reaction V: Now … If Oklahoma and A&M were to shun the SEC (for reasons I cannot fathom) and consider the Pac-12, then the conference might have some workable pieces: The Sooners and Aggies would increase the value of Oklahoma State and Tech and form a quartet that conceivably could be paired with the Arizona schools and Utah/Colorado to form an “eastern” division. That wouldn’t form as clean a split, and without Texas it wouldn’t be nearly as lucrative — but it might be workable.

    Reaction VI: It seems inevitable that Texas will go Independent in football, resulting in the collapse of the Big 12. But that point might come later rather than sooner. And the reason is an oft-overlooked component to the Independent issue: The Longhorns would need a home for their powerhouse Olympic and women’s sports. If the Big 12 breaks apart, where would they place their men’s basketball team? Their baseball team? The Pac-12/14/16 wouldn’t make sense logistically. The Mountain West and Conference USA would be options, but bad ones. (Texas vs. Nevada in swimming!?!?) BYU faced the same dilemma as UT until the West Coast Conference offered a first-rate solution. Texas wouldn’t have a comparable option in the post-Big 12 world. (Taking the Olympic sports down the Independent road would create an entirely new set of problems, from scheduling to NCAA championship access.)

    Reaction VII: So the Longhorns must continue to walk a fine line in the Big 12, flexing their muscle just enough to satisfy their ego and bank account while making enough concessions to keep the conference afloat. At least for a few more years.

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    1. Brian

      Could you provide some longer quotes from articles next time? I think there is still a small part of the internet that you didn’t quote.

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      1. cutter

        Brian:

        I didn’t think anyone would have a problem reading the text of the articles on the board. Is there a board policy I’m stepping on here or does your comment reflect some personal difficulty on your part?

        My sole motivations for putting the two articles back to back in full as a bit of a time saver and because they covered the issues of the Pac 12 expansion pretty thoroughly. In light of the discussion about Texas A&M to the SEC, etc,, I thought it was a timely contribution to this board.

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        1. greg

          cutter, I like to receive the full articles, as I read my email on my cell phone and its easier than opening a link in my phone browser.

          However, I think its against copyright to post the whole thing. Fair use does allow you to liberally quote, but not the whole thing.

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        2. Brian

          Mostly I was just kidding. As I was reading, I just kept scrolling and scrolling and wondered if there was an end or not.

          It is a copyright concern, though, and you are costing those sites money by denying them some extra page hits. I doubt Frank or WordPress care too much, but it is a potential issue for them.

          Personally, I find often find other sites easier to read for long articles than Frank’s layout, but his is great for threaded commenting.

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    2. Eric

      I continue to believe that instability in the Big 12 is greatly overstated. A&M is the only one who might want to move and have a better option and there’s too many pieces that would have to fall into place for that too happen in my opinion. Texas and Oklahoma have made clear they like the conference. No combination to the PAC-12 is likely to make enough money without those two included. Missouri and the Kansas schools only other option is for the Big East and they aren’t leaving a more geographically friendly conference they have a lot of ties to and take on exit fees and negative publicity for a conference that likely wouldn’t make them more to begin with.

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  52. Brian

    http://thegazette.com/2011/08/04/b1g-second-protected-rivalry-looks-dead-but-still-a-good-idea/

    Scott Dochterman revives his plan for using 2 locked rivals to preserve balance. I know the concept isn’t unique to him, but he puts the whole thing together in one place. My major issue with his plan is that he just uses two tiers to group the teams when splitting them for balance. I’d prefer to use rankings to provide better balance.

    Example: he has OSU playing IA&MN then NE&MSU, but I’d pair IA&MSU then NE&MN because NE>IA and MSU>>MN (I’d say NE is #2, IA #6, MSU #7 and MN #11).

    I think the media could do a public service by starting a campaign to lock just WI/IA. The B10 won’t overrule Delany and lock 2 across the board, so rather than waste the effort everyone should redirect their energy to something that might be accomplished. The B10 made a big deal about the importance of rivalries when they made divisions and everyone knows WI/IA is the one major rivalry that was lost. Also, locking WI/IA would stop most of the complaints from WI about the alignment.

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    1. cutter

      Brian-

      Upon mature consideration, you might want to reconsider the idea of locking in just the Iowa-Wisconsin game every year and not doing the same for all the Big Ten teams.

      First off, if Barry Alvarez had his way, Wisconsin’s second permanent cross-division rival might be Nebraska instead of Iowa. Both of those games are attractive, even if Iowa and Wisconsin have had the longer relationship.

      Secondly, you give no consideration to what the other athletic directors might want. For example, Michigan Athletic Director David Brandon wanted to lock in PSU as a cross-division rival when it was thought that Ohio State and Michigan might be in the same divisions. If you make an exclusive arrangement for Iowa and Wisconsin, you open up a lot of potential problems within the conference. If you do something like this for one, you do it for all.

      Finally, when you have two programs with a second permanent cross-division rival, you’re likely throwing off the schedules for the ten other teams in the conference and making the scheduling sitatuation within the confernce unworkable.

      I do agree with you that it makes strong sense for the conference to have a second permanent cross-division rival for all the teams in the conference. Mr. Dochterman makes some really good points, but he also provides a scheme that is workable throughout the Big Ten. Your idea about Iowa and Wisconsin falls well short of that conclusion.

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      1. Eric

        I have to take the opposite approach. Purdue’s athletic director talked specifically about wanting students to play every team while in college and that won’t happen (absent a 5th year for a student) unless you don’t have a 2nd crossover. Wisconsin-Iowa is important enough to mess that up a little, but I don’t think any of the other games warrant it.

        I’m also not sure Michigan would still want Penn State as a crossover now. It made sense with Ohio State in the division (as it should have been 😦 ), but does the school really want to play Ohio State, Nebraska, and Penn State every year? That seems like it would make winning their division more difficult. I’m an Ohio State fan who would have rather been in a division with Nebraska than Penn State, but I know I’d hate the idea of adding Nebraska as a crossover now.

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        1. Richard

          Eric:

          Actually, every player would still play each team at least twice even with 2 locked rivals with a 9 game conference slate.
          5 divisional games + 2 locked rivals + 2 other interdivisional games (out of the remaining 4 schools) = 9.

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          1. Eric

            You are right Richard, don’t know what I was thinking that.

            With 2 crossovers you still only move up to playing the remaining teams half the time instead of going up to 60% of the time though (which I think is preferable outside of Wisconsin-Iowa).

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      2. bullet

        I think the 6 years until 2017 and the 9 game schedule may be enough to diminish the WI/IA rivalry. You’ve got a whole set of new students and athletes. They aren’t competing in the same division anymore. All of the SEC rivalries across divisions diminished except for UGA/Auburn and AL/TN. UGA/Ole Miss and TN/Ole Miss used to be big games and aren’t played every year anymore. LSU and FL continue to play and generate interest, but the fact that they have 4 national titles between them over the last 8 years is the biggest factor (although Alan might have a different perspective on that).

        UNL/OU when it was played every other year didn’t seem to have the intensity it did in the Big 8.

        That’s one of the reasons I like logical divisions (like KISS) that decrease the need for fixed cross division rivalries. In a 9 game 5-0-4 you get everyone 4 out of 6 and it ties the conference closer together. Now you can get everyone every other year in a 5-2-2, so its not that dramatically different than the 4 out of 6 or B10’s 5-1-3 with 6 out of 10 years, but the fewer the breaks, the better the rivalries. And rivalries are the real key to conference success. And the more fixed games, the more the schedule imbalance for certain teams.

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      3. Brian

        1. I have given it thought for quite a while, actually.

        2. It’s only my idea for what is possible, not what is best. I don’t believe the B10 can get past Delany’s statement that there won’t be 2 locked rivals. 90%+ negative reaction wasn’t enough to change the division names, and people won’t be nearly as riled up about this issue. Therefore, the best hope is to lock the one important rivalry that was lost, which will also alleviate many of WI’s complaints about the divisions.

        3. Alvarez clearly said he fought multiple times in the alignment process to also lock WI/IA. He’d like to play NE more, but he knows IA is more important. See Dochterman’s series for the details (linked on the previous post from Frank).

        4. I considered the other ADs, I just don’t think the rest of them have any pressing issues. I’d prefer to lock 2 and then rotate the other 4, I just don’t think it’s possible with Delany around. Maybe if he is no longer commissioner, but not as is. I don’t see this causing problems because the ADs will see this fixes a major problem for WI without hurting anyone else.

        5. I have looked at scheduling, and it isn’t a problem.
        WI: OSU, PSU, PU, IL, IN, MN, IA + 2 of (MI, NE, MSU, NW)
        IA: MI, NE, MSU, NW, MN, PU, WI + 2 of (OSU, PSU, IL, IN)

        They play everyone at least 50% of the time, versus 60% with 1 locked rival.

        I’ll use OSU to represent everyone else:
        OSU: PSU, WI, PU, IL, IN, MI + 3 of (NE, IA, MSU, NW, MN)

        From above, OSU/IA can only be 50% of the time. When OSU plays IA, they play 2 of the other 4. When OSU doesn’t, they play 3 of 4:
        OSU: 1/2[6 locked + IA + 2 of (NE, MSU, NW, MN)] + 1/2[6 locked + 3 of (NE, MSU, NW, MN)]
        OSU: 6 locked + IA 50% of the time + NE, MSU, NW and MN 62.5% of the time (10 in 16)

        What it requires it some effort by the B10 to do it right. If they do it, OSU would play every team at least once every 4 years. What they won’t get are home and homes with the other 4 in the 2 consecutive years they play IA, so they’ll only play at those 4 schools once every 8 years. Everybody will play at 10 of the 11 at least once in 4 years, though. There are other choices, too.

        1 IA, NE, MN
        2 IA, MSU, NW
        3 NE, MSU, NW
        4 NE, MSU, NW
        5 IA, NE, MN
        6 IA, MSU, NW
        7 MSU, NW, MN
        8 MSU, NW, MN
        9 IA, NE, MN
        10 IA, MSU, NW
        11 NW, MN, NE
        12 NW, MN, NE
        13 IA, NE, MN
        14 IA, MSU, NW
        15 MN, NE, MSU
        16 MN, NE, MSU

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        1. Brian

          A scheduling cycle people might prefer:

          1 IA, NE, MN
          2 NE, MN, MSU
          3 IA, MSU, NW
          4 MSU, NW, MN
          5 IA, NE, MN
          6 NE, MN, NW
          7 IA, MSU, NW
          8 NE, MSU, NW

          You play everyone at least 2 in 4 years (5 in 8 years for all but IA), and get to play at every stadium at least once in 4 years. Everyone except IA would get a home and home and a 2 for 1 every 8 years. Thus, you have to actually double the cycle to 16 years to get the home games to balance out, but the teams would repeat every 8.

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        2. Richard

          I think it’s a competitiveness issue. Mind you, I think trying to plan schedules based on perceived competitiveness is retarded, but if that’s important to the B10 higher-ups, 2 locked interdivisional games would make the schedules more unfair. For example, 2 non-kings in the SW division would get UNL or Michigan every year, but 2 others don’t. 2 non-kings in the NW division would get PSU or OSU every year, but 2 others don’t.

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          1. Brian

            It depends how they choose the teams. You can get some balance based on which rivals you lock. Right now, WI gets MN and MSU gets IN every year while OSU, MI, NE and PSU play each other. That’s hardly a bastion of fairness. Adding a second rival of complementary success would make the 7 locked games more equal. Then you can pair the remaining 4 as best as possible to be even. It’s not perfect, but it’s better than now when teams miss both OSU and MI every so often. That’s an unfair schedule.

            I will admit that part of my preference is that I like the symmetry of having 4 teams that you play 2 of every year rather than 3 of 5. However, I also like the ability to balance the two locked rivals and balance the rotating pairs of crossover games. That sort of rough balance in the schedules will make the crossover games pretty even, so the real differences will show up in the divisional games.

            I think the biggest problem I have with the current plan is that the division winners are based on B10 records instead of divisional play only. B10 records should only be the tiebreaker after all the possible divisional tiebreakers have failed. This is because the current plan has such unbalanced locked rivals. The Leaders division race shouldn’t come down to the OSU/MI and WI/MN games as the difference, just like the Legends shouldn’t come down to MI/OSU and MSU/IN. Those games are important nationally and for the rivalries, but shouldn’t impact the division races in my opinion.

            If locking 2 rivals and pairing the other 4 up wisely reduces this imbalance, then I’m all for it as long as total B10 record is deciding the divisional winners.

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  53. Thanks for posting this while I was in the middle of a cross-country move back to the promised land, Frank. I appreciate it. 🙂

    Good piece, and I’ve linked to the UF analogy over at BON. I personally think there’s no chance this is happening anytime soon. Mainly, as you discuss, the political reasons. Keep in mind that, in neither the 1994 nor the 2010 realignment battles, the pro-UT legislative forces never really went all-in on issues like having to keep Baylor around, etc. If pro-Baylor forces alone in the Legislature can keep their school along for the ride, just imagine the combined power of the pro-Baylor, pro-Tech and, yes, pro-UT factions if they decided it was in their best interests to keep A&M in the Big 12.

    Ain’t gonna happen.

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  55. joe4psu

    Something I read today reminded me of a possible outcome from the move to nine conference games. Is the conference attempting to squeeze ND? With three of the BCS conferences playing nine conference games now it cuts down on games available for ND. I don’t remember if there has been any word of the MWC going to nine games when Fresno St, Nevada and Hawaii transition in but that would put a further crimp in the number of games available to ND. As things stand now WAC, C-USA and SBC schools would probably love scheduling ND but there aren’t many attractive games for ND in that bunch. The BE will probably continue to bend over backward for ND but if the SEC and ACC would go to nine conference games the noose is tightened even further.

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    1. Brian

      No, I don’t buy that at all. As much as many B10 fans would like to put the squeeze on ND (maybe less now that the B10 has 12 teams), the B10 and its teams get way too many benefits from playing them. ND makes money for PU, MSU and MI. ND makes money for the B10 by boosting TV ratings. Squeezing ND would be cutting off our nose to spite our face.

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    2. Richard

      Plus, which, how is ND going to get squeezed? ND doesn’t lack opportunities in September (when the B10 teams traditionally play them, since all leagues play OOC games then). They’d get squeezed if the ACC or BE (or the service academies, but that won’t happen) refuse to play them in October and November, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening.

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      1. joe4psu

        Something I forgot to mention is that the Pac-12 has decided that all OOC games must come before conference games begin. The scheduled USC and Stanford games won’t be affected but I’m pretty sure that changes when these series end. If the B1G plays all OOC games first then all these rivals can’t be scheduled.

        The BE AD’s, Luck definitely, I’ve seen interviewed said that the conference wants to got to a nine game schedule as well. So even though their schools may want to schedule ND it will become more difficult. The ACC and SEC seem happy at eight games and the ACC starts conference games from week one so they have open dates throughout the schedule. The SEC schools often have open weeks later in the season but how many of them will want to schedule ND at that time? Especially if Kelly get’s them turned around.

        I think the Big12 schools will have openings later in the year but I’m not sure of that. And even if they do how many of them will ND be interested in scheduling? The point is, scheduling BCS opponents becomes more and more difficult if the trend of nine conference games all at the beginning of the year continues.

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        1. Richard

          Uh, no. Scheduling BCS opponents becomes more difficult for ND only if the ACC and BE decide not to play ND in October and November. Regardless of how many conference games the ACC and BE play, so long as they’re willing to schedule their conference games around ND games (which is the case now, and which I don’t really expect to change), the number of conference games they play is pretty irrelevant.

          BTW, the Pac will allow the USC-ND and Stanford-ND games to take place later in the year indefinitely because they also don’t want to cut off their nose.

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          1. joe4psu

            Scheduling may not be an issue as long as the BE and ACC are flexible but it cuts down on the available options. One of the reasons ND fans want to maintain their independence is so they can play a large variety of games all over the country. If the Pac continues to give waivers to schools to play later in the year they still have a big field to choose from. It’s not as large as it was but it still gives them plenty of options. At some point though, whether it is the BCS conferences splitting off from the NCAA or deciding that it is time to consolidate into sixteen school conferences, ND can be pushed into a decision between joining a conference or really downgrading their schedule. Or the BCS conferences can just make access to the BCS (or playoffs) available only to members of conferences. It may seem unlikely today but there is always tomorrow.

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          2. Richard

            “Scheduling may not be an issue as long as the BE and ACC are flexible but it cuts down on the available options.”

            That’s the same situation as today, and today, the ND alums are fiercely against joining a conference.

            “One of the reasons ND fans want to maintain their independence is so they can play a large variety of games all over the country.”

            I don’t see how that would change. They may have to play Temple & Air Force (& BYU) away, but they’re already scheduling those types of games.

            “Or the BCS conferences can just make access to the BCS (or playoffs) available only to members of conferences.”

            Highly unlikely unless the BCS conferences break away first, because the rest of FBS (not only the Irish) would rebel, and I don’t see anyone leaving the NCAA any time soon.

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    3. M

      I don’t think Purdue, MSU, or Michigan plan on discontinuing that series and I know for certain that Northwestern would like to play more than the two scheduled games. If anything, going to 9 games opens up more BCS opponents for ND since they will likely no longer be playing as many Big Ten schools.

      The nicest thing that the Big Ten could do for ND would be to open up nonconference slots later in the year, which they seem to plan on doing by moving conference games earlier into September.

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    1. Richard

      I don’t really buy that. I mean, I guess that argument has some merit if it’s just ESPN bidding against one other company, but it looks like Comcast will bid, NBC want’s content for their cable sport channel, and Fox wants to expand their college football offerings as well.

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  57. Craig Z

    Brian,

    Only counting divisional games makes sense, but as an Ohio State fan, I would hate to see the OSU-Michigan game be reduced to a tie breaker at best. Interdivisional games would be only a little more important than nonconference games.

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    1. Eric

      It makes sense in a lot of ways and from a pure fairness point of view, it’s actually probably best. It also makes the conference feel less like a conference and more like a coalition though. The nondivisional games already mean less than the divisional games. If you don’t count them in the standings other than as a tiebreaker, the difference between them and nonconference games shrinks a lot.

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      1. Brian

        I agree with both of you, but I also hate an unfair schedule. On the bright side, 9 games greatly reduces the inequities even with only 1 locked rival.

        I know they won’t change it, but it will bug me greatly if/when MSU or WI make the CCG on the basis of playing an easy rival.

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  58. RedDenver

    I’ll chime in with a vote for NOT having a 2nd protected rival. There’s simply no good way to make it fair to everyone based on competitive terms. And that’s the overiding principle of how these divisions were selected in the first place. Besides, I’d rather get to play the rest of the conference more often and form tighter bonds with all the teams.

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    1. Brian

      I’ll buy your second reason, but the first makes no sense to me.

      Now:
      OSU – MI
      PSU – NE
      WI – MN
      PU – IA
      IL – NW
      IN – MSU

      You consider those balanced?

      Option 1:
      OSU – MI, MN
      PSU – NE, MSU
      WI – MN, IA
      PU – IA, NW
      IL – NW, MI
      IN -MSU, NE
      MI – OSU, IL
      NE – PSU, IN
      MN – WI, OSU
      IA – PU, WI
      NW – IL, PU
      MSU – IN, PSU

      This set preserves rivalries and reduce the inequities. The biggest complaints would be from PSU, IN and MN, I suppose. The rivalries (PSU/MSU, IN/MSU) balance the difficulty for the most part, though.

      Option 2:
      OSU – MI, NW
      PSU – NE, MSU
      WI – MN, IA
      PU – MI, MN
      IL – NW, IA
      IN – MSU, NE
      MI – OSU, PU
      NE – PSU, IN
      MN – WI, PU
      IA – WI, IL
      NW – IL, OSU
      MSU – IN, PSU

      This set mostly does the same thing, but ditches IA/PU for IA/IL. Everyone has a top half and a bottom half opponent, though WI still has it fairly easy and PSU and IN have it hard. That’s the cost of keeping rivalries (WI/MN, PSU/MSU, MSU/IN, IA/IL).

      Adding the second locked games reduces playing frequency from 60% for 5 schools to 50% for the other 4 schools. However, the next 6 years will feature 40% for 5 schools so the value still goes up even with a second locked game. On top of this, remember that locking 2 rivals means playing 2 of the other 4. These 4 can be split into pairs of equivalent total difficulty, meaning that the crossover schedule will consist of 2 of 3 pairs of teams all designed to provide rough equivalence of difficulty. How does that not make things more balanced rather than less?

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      1. Eric

        Finally see what you are getting at Brian (took me long enough). If the status quo remains, I guess it is does help competitive balance. Still divided on whether I want it or to play everyone more (I really don’t like the thought of playing a conference team less than half the time, maybe by 2017 I’ll be used to it), but your argument is pretty convincing.

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        1. Brian

          No problem, I probably wasn’t explaining it clearly. It is hard to really see until you look at the whole thing laid out in front of you.

          I agree that playing less than half the time is bad, but 12 teams meant playing each other less:
          11 teams, 8 games, 0 locked = 80% for 10 rotating schools
          11 teams, 8 games, 1 locked = 78% for rotating schools
          11 teams, 8 games, 2 locked = 75% for rotating schools
          12 teams, 8 games, 0 locked = 50% for rotating schools
          12 teams, 8 games, 1 locked = 40% for rotating schools
          12 teams, 8 games, 2 locked = 25% for rotating schools
          12 teams, 9 games, 0 locked = 67% for rotating schools
          12 teams, 9 games, 1 locked = 60% for rotating schools
          12 teams, 9 games, 2 locked = 50% for rotating schools

          The question is always whether locking another school is worth the cost of playing the remaining schools even less often. I agree with the B10 that dropping from 40% to 25% was too big of a cost for locking a second rival with 8 games. I don’t see the harm in locking a second rival with 9 games, though. You’d lose 1 game every decade against the other 4 teams, none of which are primary rivals. The benefits are that you can preserve some important rivalries and improve the balance of the schedules. As important as competitive balance was, I fail to see why schedule balance is not valued as highly.

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          1. Brian

            Just to throw it out there, they could always move to a 10 game schedule.

            Pros:
            5 home, 5 away
            12 teams, 10 games, 0 locked = 83% for 6 rotating schools
            12 teams, 10 games, 1 locked = 80% for 5 rotating schools
            12 teams, 10 games, 2 locked = 75% for 4 rotating schools (same as schedule before NE)

            Cons:
            2 cupcakes unless it makes so much money teams can afford a 6-6 or 6-1-5 schedule
            Almost every CCG is a repeat
            A lot of extra losses for the teams
            Might as well go to 11 and play the round robin

            11 game schedule:
            See everybody every year
            CCG has to be a repeat, but neutral site this time
            Have the split of 5 home and 6 away
            Fair but brutal schedule

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          2. Richard

            Brian:

            With a round robin, there’s no need for a CCG,a nd the top school may not want it as it woul definitely make a national title game appearance harder.

            In any case, I think we may very well see a 10-game conference slate fairly soon, but in the BE or MWC or CUSA as schools there really don’t bring enough fans to justify the ever-rising guarantee game fees, and they’re not high profile enough to get home-and-homes with the really attractive teams. If the choice is a home-and-home with a similar team but in a different conference or a conference game, they may very well decide on the conference game as it would strengthen rivalries in the conference.

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          3. Brian

            Richard,

            Of course you don’t need the CCG, and of course no coach would want it (they don’t want it now), but TV will pay for the CCG. Imagine the first B10 team to go 12-0 in conference.

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      2. RedDenver

        I mean competitive balance in terms of the whole schedule. There’s just no way to make it fair every year because teams have ups and downs, but having fixed mathups and consistently missing other teams is going to seriously advantage/disadvantage somebody when a team suddenly has a few good seasons or a good team takes a nose dive. I’d rather get rid of the protected crossover entirely than go to 2 of them. As a Husker fan, I definitely don’t want to get stuck playing IN every year. Yes, it’s usually going to be a win for us, but there’s no excitement for playing them every season.

        And your setup currently favors WI and shafts PSU.

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        1. Brian

          My setup favors WI less than the current one does, which is the whole point. PSU gets shafted because they want to keep their MSU rivalry. It’s the same reason MSU/IN and WI/MN are paired now. I’d do it differently without the rivalries to preserve.

          As for overall balance, nothing can account for that occasional year when a team does abnormally well (or poorly). However, pairing teams in equivalent success pairs reduces the odds of getting all the top teams or all the bottom ones in any one year. With 2 locked rivals you’d still see everyone 2 of 4 years, so a team on an upward or downward trend shouldn’t be a big issue.

          As a NE fan, would you prefer a schedule that promised:
          1. PSU & IN, plus either OSU & IL or WI & PU
          2. PSU & IL, plus either OSU & IN or WI & PU
          3. PSU, plus any 3 of (OSU, WI, PU, IL, IN)
          4. Any 2 of (OSU & IN, PSU & IL, WI & PU)
          5. Any 4 of (OSU, PSU, WI, PU, IL, IN)

          Basically, would you prefer pure luck of the draw or preset pairs designed to be balanced?

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          1. RedDenver

            The more I think about it, the more I like your idea of pairings. I guess out of those options I’d prefer 5 followed by 1 and 2 (they’re the same to me) and then 4 and dislike 3.

            One thing I disliked about the B12 rotation was that it was a full swap so we always played the same teams in a given year in every rotation. I’d prefer a staggered rotation. I think it would work for any of your options. For example, using your option 1, NU could play:
            @OSU & IL
            @IL & WI
            @WI & PU
            @PU & OSU

            Another plus for 2 protected crossovers is that the league doesn’t seem so much like us against them (north vs south in the B12). That really led to some bad blood within the B12 I’d like to avoid.

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          2. Brian

            I can understand #5 as your first choice, but that’s a no go once they decided to split OSU and MI. The B10 isn’t going to make the same mistake the B12 did with NE and OU.

            1 and 2 are basically the same, I was just checking to see if your objection was to having a second, easier locked rival or to IN in particular.

            Some NE (and PSU) fans have been excited about getting NE/PSU every year, while others aren’t. I think it was the right choice for TV and balance concerns, but it will take time to rekindle the heat.

            I just know that having a year with MI, NE, IA and MSU as OSU’s crossover games would really tick me off. That’s why I advocate the pairs system, so that nobody gets the short stick with the schedule. I’d much rather see the quality of the teams decide the division races rather the strength of schedule.

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          3. RedDenver

            #5 would probably require redoing the divisions, and I doubt that’s happening. So given that can’t happen, I’d go with one of your 2nd crossover opponent formats.

            In thinking about this, I’m wondering if there’s a way to let the divisions change in addition to the schedule. This is off the top of my head, so I’m sure there’s lots of issues with it, including being too radical of a change for many. But what if there was one protected game for each team and then the schedule rotated fully? That allows every team to play the others 8 out of 10 years and the protected opponent every year. Each team could play 4 home and 4 away and then the protected game rotates home/away for the 4 or 5 conference home games.

            The schedules are easy to put together, but I’m not sure on the division switches. Each team needs to play every team within the division, but I think it’s workable. Biggest problem I see is that you’d have to relearn which teams were in each division every year (or every other year depending on the switching). I’m sure there are other problems, and lots of people won’t like the idea, but I think it’s fascinating. Especially for the off-season.

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          4. Brian

            It’s an interesting concept to play around with, but the B10 is much too conservative to consider it. It would confuse too many people and lose way too many rivalries.

            Games that need to happen annually if at all possible:
            IL – NW
            IN – PU
            IA – NE, MN, WI
            MI – OSU, MSU
            MSU – MI
            MN – WI, IA
            NE – IA
            NW – IL
            OSU – MI, PSU
            PSU – OSU
            PU – IN
            WI – MN, IA

            Your system would cause definite problems for MI, OSU, IA, MN and WI.

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          5. Richard

            I’d add the Little Brown Jug.

            I just don’t see how killing off the oldest trophy game in the country is a good idea.

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          6. RedDenver

            Do all those rivalries really need to be played every year? I’m new to the B1G, but I doubt all of them were played every year before now. One every year and the rest 80% seems pretty reasonable to me. But I suppose 2 protected games per team may be possible. Any more than that and you’re approaching fixed divisions anyway.

            I agree that many fans simply wouldn’t like the idea because it’s too much of a change though.

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          7. Brian

            Richard,

            I’d like to see the LBJ on that list too, but they have allowed breaks since the move to 11 teams so I didn’t include it (same with Illibuck).

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          8. Richard

            Brian:
            I think the LBJ wasn’t protected before because all B10 teams could only have 2 protected rivals, and obviously MSU and OSU took precedence over Minny for UM. However, under a divisional setup with one protected cross-divisional rival, you’d play 6 teams every year. In such a setup, there’s no reason not to protect the LBJ game (especially since you give Iowa 3 protected rivals already). Possibly the Illibuck as well.

            RedDenver:
            Other than (obviously) the UNL-Iowa game, all of these were protected when the B10 had 11 schools. Other than (obviously) UNL-Iowa & PSU-OSU, all of these games (except Iowa-Wisconsin) have been rivalries for close to a century. NU-UofI have played annually since 1927, IU-PU since 1920, Iowa-Minny since 1931, UM-MSU since 1945 (only a 2 year break during WWII since 1910), UM-OSU since 1918, & Minny-Wiscy since 1907.

            Plus, this isn’t an exhaustive list. The Little Brown Jug was played for every year from 1919-1998, when it was halted for 2 years due to the new 11-school schedule. The Illibuck was played for every year from 1914-2002. Wiscy-Iowa was played every year from 1932-1992. All 3 of those series have skipped only 2 games in the past 80 years or so, with the LBJ and Illibuck games only missing 2 games since WWI.

            The B10 has a ton of trophy and rivalry games.

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          9. Brian

            RedDenver,

            The B10 takes its rivalries very seriously. My list only covered the most important ones. This is how those games break down:

            Played every year in the last 50 years:
            IL – NW
            IN – PU
            IA – MN
            MN – WI
            OSU – MI
            MI – MSU

            Played every year since PSU joined:
            OSU – PSU

            Played every year until PSU joined:
            IA – WI (B10 changed the rules to lock 2 teams after IA/WI missed 93-94)
            OSU – IL (once missed 2 years, now divisional)
            MI – MN (twice missed 2 years, now divisional)

            Not regular until NE joined:
            IA – NE

            Before PSU, the B10 generally played 8 of 9 teams with 5 locked (for OSU – MI, IL, WI, IN, MN) and 4 rotating. So, from 1973-1992, OSU played MI, IL, WI, IN, MN 20 times each, IA 18, NW 16, and MSU and PU 14.

            When PSU joined, the B10 locked fewer teams (2 for OSU, PSU, MI, MSU and MN, 1 for IN, IL, IA, NW, PU and WI). After missing WI/IA for the first 2 years, the B10 realized their error and locked WI/IA, IN/IL and PU/NW (the last 2 were out of necessity, not any actual rivalry).

            That meant that everyone had 2 locked games and played 6 of the other 8, with the missing pair rotating. However, there were several old rivalries that didn’t get locked like the Little Brown Jug (MI/MN – oldest exchanged trophy at 1903, played 91 times since) and Illibuck (trophy since 1925, played 84 times – all but ’03 and ’04, OSU’s only trophy game). There are a lot of lesser rivalries that didn’t get locked, too, since IL/PU, IN/MSU, and PSU/MN all play for trophies.

            So of all the games I mentioned, only 1 is not now an annual game. IA/WI has been played 86 times since splitting the series 42-42-2, and it’s been annual since 1937 except for the break in 93-94.

            Welcome to the B10, the conference of trophies.

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          10. Brian

            Richard,

            I agree that the LBJ and Illibuck were victims of numbers. I just put them slightly lower on the priority list because of the disparity if the programs. The western triangle rivalries are more balanced and/or older and/or more played, and the in-state rivalries have to stay. That’s why I dropped the other 2 down a notch. They’re still above the others I left off.

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          11. Ross

            Wasn’t part of PSU’s agreement to join the Big Ten to play Michigan every year until they just went off the schedule?

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          12. RedDenver

            Interesting stuff on the rivalries. Thanks. I gather from those responses that playing 4 out of every 5 years is not considered “good”. I personally think those rivalries will be fine played 80%, and the real damage will be to the non-divisional rivalries. Wait until UM-OSU doesn’t matter for one or both teams reaching the conf champ game and see how that affects “The Game”. Cross-division games mean less in the new Big Ten, and I’ll be interested what happens to the league as a result. Or perhaps I’m just jaded by the Husker’s experiences in the B12.

            All this makes me think it’ll be next to impossible for the B1G to expand passed 12 teams.

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          13. Richard

            RedDenver,

            Actually if the B10 added the 4 core ACC schools and go to a pod system, all of the most important rivalries can be kept and only the LBJ and Illibuck games would be sacrificed.

            Like

          14. Richard

            Ross:

            An implicit promise, you mean? Michigan did take a while to drop off PSU’s schedule, only doing so in 2003-2004.

            Like

          15. Eric

            RedDenver,

            That is one of the reasons I continue to to despise the divisions and why I’ll never be able to view the conference in the same positive light again (not that I’ve abandoned). Division games are the most important ones when you have a divisional alignment. Ohio State’s games against Penn State and Wisconsin are going to make a bigger difference in its fate than Michigan most years. Michigan isn’t going to stop being our primary rival anytime soon, but I think these divisions will take something away from it.

            Brian, as for Ohio State-Penn State, that might be a game that should stay on the schedule for Penn State’s sake (although I don’t think they’d mind switching us for Michigan), but I don’t think its a must from an Ohio State perspective at all. We should have Nebraska or Penn State on the schedule, but which one it is doesn’t matter all that much to me.

            Like

          16. Brian

            Ross,

            I believe the rumor was that PSU got a deal to get OSU plus MI for the first 10 years to help get them more linked to the conference and have more exciting B10 games to get the fans used to the new teams. It was a good idea.

            Like

          17. @Brian – Yes, I believe that Penn State was explicitly guaranteed to play Michigan for the first 10 years that they were in the Big Ten.

            Note that if we’re looking at the East Coast markets, Michigan is the next most popular school in the Big Ten after Penn State.

            Like

          18. Brian

            RedDenver,

            Playing only 4 out 5 is fine for LBJ or Illibuck, but the other ones need to be annual. Keeping traditions like this is an important part of what makes the B10 the B10, and why NE wanted to join. Look what not playing annually did to NE/OU. The B10 would never have let that happen.

            The crossover rivalries won’t be affected except for The Game. The others don’t have the B10 title being on the line as an important part of their history. I think OSU and MI will continue to hate each other just fine, though. It’s survived the rare years when neither team could win the B10 because beating the other team was enough to salvage the season. It’s thrived in years when one team can win the title and the other can only play spoiler. It’s over the top when OSU and MI are playing for the title.

            Then there was 2006 when undefeated #1 hosted undefeated #2 and won by 3, which set a level that will be hard to match. Imagine a rematch the following week after that game, though. #3 MI pissed at losing a close game at #1 OSU gets a shot at revenge on a neutral field with the winner guaranteed a spot in the NCG. That might draw some interest.

            “Cross-division games mean less in the new Big Ten, and I’ll be interested what happens to the league as a result.”

            I hear people say that, but it’s barely true. The division title is decided by overall B10 record, so the crossover games are just as important until you get into tiebreakers. 7-1 beats 6-2 no matter if that was 7-1(4-1) versus 6-2(5-0).

            The tiebreakers are:
            1. Head to head
            2. Division record
            3. BCS ranking

            Head to head can only come up for division games I think (the final rules aren’t on the B10’s website yet), so that’s a slight difference. Plus, the next tiebreaker is division record. So yes, division games are technically a little more important for the title but I’d still rather beat MI than WI. I would value beating WI over NE for the title implications, though. The goal is to not end up tied with someone in the division

            “All this makes me think it’ll be next to impossible for the B1G to expand passed 12 teams.”

            For many reasons, this is what most of us have been saying all along. If Delany had his druthers, the next expansion (if it had to happen) would probably be to 20 by acquiring most of the B12 plus ND and Pitt, and basically have 2 independent leagues as divisions. UT, OU, TAMU, OkSU, MO, KU, NE, WI, IA, MN versus ND, Pitt, OSU, MI, PSU, MSU, IN, PU, IL, NW. Play a 9 game round robin with 1 crossover and he can roll in all the TV money.

            Like

          19. Brian

            Eric,

            Yes, OSU/PSU has to stay for PSU’s sake. It’s pretty important to OSU too, though, especially when recruiting in PA. Playing NE doesn’t help OSU recruit much of anywhere that is gets players. OSU/PSU just doesn’t have the age of OSU’s true rivalries. The crowds at the games show you it is more important than most teams, though. It’s ahead of Illibuck which has a lot more history to it. I’m guessing OSU will find it more of a rival when not winning the conference 6 years in a row.

            Like

          20. greg

            As a run-of-the-mill somewhat-unbiased B10 fan, I find OSU-PSU to be the most attractive tv matchup after OSU-MI. Its a game that I think should continue annually.

            Like

          22. greg

            Brian, you mention “The crowds at the [PSU] games show you it is more important than most teams.” What team other than MI tops them?

            Not that you asked, but my personal Kinnick Stadium crowd electricity unscientific measurement:

            OSU
            [NE?]
            MI
            PSU
            WI
            ISU
            MSU
            IL
            NW [we keep thinking we’ll win]
            MN [crowd lame, Floyd rocks]
            PU [locked “rival”]
            IU
            Ariz/Pitt/BCS
            UNI
            MAC
            FBS
            FCS

            NE could be #1 soon, if not right away. I’m surprised that I rank even the worst B10 games above Ariz/Pitt/BCS, but that seems to be true to me.

            In regards to the discussions about divisional games meaning more… They all matter. They matter the same in the win column. You don’t think OSU-MN matters? Just lose to MN and see how much it matters. It’ll be the most important game of the year. see OSU at Purdue a couple years ago.

            re: Purdue. just heard on the On Iowa podcast that PU wanted a new trophy, Iowa wasn’t interested. we invented a new one (Wisky) in 2004, inventing a new one (NE) this year, and replacing the ISU trophy this year. we’re full with contrived trophies, thanks. the Iowa-ISU Cy-Hawk trophy is an ugly embarrassing piece of junk, but we’ve played for it since 1977 and means something.

            sorry about the meandering stream of consciousness post.

            Like

          23. Brian

            greg,

            What crowds at OSU top PSU games?

            Well, that’s a loaded question. Some PSU games are at night and some aren’t, and those are two very different crowds.

            An elite OOC opponent like USC or TX can top PSU, but those are always night games.

            MI does by default even though it’s always a day game.

            I’d say PSU is clearly next.

            The OSU crowd really only gets pumped for top teams and MI. PSU isn’t fully a rivalry yet, but it has been a battle of top contenders for the B10 title many times lately so the crowds have been strong. If the season is going well, the WI crowd will be great this year.

            Like

      3. jcfreder

        As a UW fan, I’m pretty resigned to the Iowa game never being locked. I understand the difficulty of just locking UW-Iow as a 2nd game and rotating everyone else.

        But . . . the 2-locked rivalry system actually sounds pretty interesting. Particularly “Option 2” that Brian sets forth. That being said, I understand why people might not take to the concept, as you end up protecting “rivalries” that aren’t that important, which isn’t going to compute for a lot of people.

        I am a little surprised at some of the arguments being raised (particularly by fans of teams that got to keep their designated rivals) that the strength of schedule isn’t fair. That is, OSU gets a raw deal because they have to play Michigan while Wisconsin gets it easy by having to play Minnesota. Now, I’d MUCH rather switch in Michigan or Iowa or Nebraska for Indiana because I prefer those rivalries, but seeing as that isn’t going to happen, and SOS evenhandedness is an understandable goal . . . how about the following idea, which is admittedly pretty out there:

        How about reserving the 1 new game as a counterbalance to any inequities that pop up? If OSU has the toughest B10 projected schedule with games 1-8, then give them Minnesota as game 9. Granted, there are a lot of moving parts there, but if balance is such a goal, then you could set up something similar to the way the NFL has scheduled, by reserving slots for particular finishes in the standings.

        Like

        Reply
        1. Brian

          jcfreder,

          Your acceptance of it is healthy, but there’s really no good reason not to lock WI/IA in 2017. That’s what bothers me. It isn’t difficult and it only slightly changes the frequency with which WI and IA play the non-locked teams (60% to 50%). WI and IA get to keep an important rivalry and it only costs 1 game per decade from 4 schools each. The cost to WI and IA would probably be that they don’t get home and homes with those schools but rather play every other year. That all seems like a small price to pay for preserving something the B10 considers important. As a bonus, it would add some balance to the schedule.

          I’m glad you liked my Option 2. I know it won’t happen, but it’s a good intellectual exercise. Once Delany makes a firm statement about something, it’s pretty much decided. The logic of at least locking WI/IA seems clear, but so does changing the division names

          I’m not sure why you’re surprised about other fans saying WI/MN is unfair. It doesn’t mean we don’t understand why it was locked or that we would change it. It doesn’t even necessarily mean we would trade our locked rivals for easier games, it just means we understand math.

          WI’s winning percentage since 1993 against:
          IA 0.50
          IL 0.75
          IN 0.86
          MI 0.43
          MN 0.78
          MSU 0.57
          NW 0.57
          OSU 0.39
          PSU 0.50
          PU 0.68
          NE 0.44 (average of OSU, MI and PSU as a guesstimate)

          Overall before NE 0.603 (the old measure of a fair schedule for WI)
          Overall 0.588 (the measure of a fair schedule for WI now)
          Leaders 0.636 (2 kings but 3 peasants, so better than average)
          Legends 0.548 (2 kings, 1 peer & 3 lesser teams, so worse than average)
          Old schedule 0.605 (close to average, but helped by MN)
          Current schedule 0.620 (even easier thanks to only MN locked)
          9 game schedule 0.607 (closer to average)
          9 with IA locked 0.603 (even closer to average)

          The good news is that despite the locked rivals being unfair, the other games help to average it out. A truly even schedule would net WI a 0.588 winning percentage, while the old system netted a 0.605 (very close to the fair 0.603 thanks to locked IA to balance MN). The current plan bumps that up to 0.620 (1 extra win every 4 years versus fair). Going to 9 games reduces that to 0.607 (1 extra win every ~6). Locking IA would further reduce that to 0.603 (2 extra wins every 15 years).

          This is why people say it’s unfair. WI wants and seems to be a regular contender, so getting a boost from the schedule is going to annoy the other contenders. OSU, MI, PSU and NE will all be hurt by their locked rival while WI benefits. That increases the effect, turning WI’s 1 extra win every 4 years into 1 every 2 years compared to OSU. OSU is probably going to lose some division titles over that 1 extra win, so the fans care.

          As you say, your idea is too complex for the B10 to actually implement. If it isn’t done a priori, the B10 won’t account for SOS.

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          Reply

          1. Oh hey, I hear you — on paper, UW should have “easier” schedules going forward. What I meant was that seeing as UW was clearly the odd man out in terms of the divisional setup, I can’t get too bent out of shape from complaints from the schools that actually got much more of what they wanted in the divisional alignments.

            Present compay excluded, of course, because you and others on the board have come up with some interesting ideas to make things more equitable while actually enhancing some important rivalries.

            Like

          2. Brian

            Hey, the grass is always greener, you know. WI fans didn’t get the division they wanted, so they complain about losing rivals. Other teams got a good division, so they complain about inequity in the rivals. And a large number of fans probably don’t see losing WI/MN or WI/IA as a big deal because it’s not their rivalry. What’s the fun of being a fan if you can’t complain about getting screwed over?

            As an OSU fan I want to play MI every year and then get to bitch about having to play MI every year (which would be easier if they get past the RichRod success level). It’s just like how SEC fans complain about how tough their conference schedule is, or P12 fans complain about 9 games when everyone else plays 9. You need a little sense of fan martyrdom.

            As for complaining, especially on the internet, nothing is more annoying to me than to bitch about a complex decision and not offer a better solution. If you just want to complain, that’s fine, but don’t blame the people making the same decision you would.

            Like

    1. Richard

      Has he ever heard of European soccer? Those leagues are probably the most unbalanced in the world, and they draw in more money, per capita, than the NFL. The NFL had revenues of $8.5B in ’09-’10. The Premier League brought in just a bit over 2B sterling in the same time period in a nation with 1/6th the population.

      Links:
      http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2010/04/20100405/This-Weeks-News/Goodell-Sets-Revenue-Goal-Of-$25B-By-2027-For-NFL.aspx
      http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Sport/5713201-147/premier_league_clubs_revenues_rise_amid.csp

      For that matter, MLB beats out the NFL in licensing/merchandising revenues even though MLB has far less parity:
      http://www.cnbc.com/id/37692194/Publication_MLB_Will_Beat_NFL_In_Licensing_Revenue_In_10

      Parity is overrated. In fact, one of the reasons why I don’t follow the NFL any more is because there’s no reason for a neutral fan to cheer for one team over another since there are no favorites or underdogs (and I don’t care for fantasy football).

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      1. M

        That’s funny, I stopped watching baseball because I figured out that all you have to do is look at the payrolls. If your team isn’t in the top 10, you’re better off rooting for the Washington Generals.
        –
        The Premier League has the best per capita revenue because it has effectively no competition. Cricket is the second most popular sport in England, and its largest stadium seats 28000. Imagine what the disparity would be if the only sports in the US were the NFL and minor league baseball.

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        Reply
        1. Brian

          The broadcasting rules for the Premier League have a lot to do with it as well. It wouldn’t be legal in the US, but the system makes them a ton of money.

          Like

          Reply
        2. Richard

          M:

          That’s not really true, though. Cleveland (26th in payroll) and Arizona (25th in payroll) are contending for playoff spots (Arizona’s a half game out of first) while the Brewers (17th in payroll) are actually leading their division.

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          1. M

            Let’s look at the teams who would actually make the playoffs right now:
            Yankees (#1)
            Phillies (#2)
            Red Sox (#3)
            Giants (tied) (#8)
            Tigers (#10)
            Rangers (#13)
            Braves (#15)
            Brewers (#17)
            Diamondbacks (tied) (#25)

            I suspect that the Brewers will be overtaken by the Cardinals (#11) and the Rangers will be overtaken by the Angels (#4). Even by the current standings, no American League team in the bottom half of payroll is in position for the playoffs. Only one (Tampa Bay) has a record above .500. Overall, it’s entirely possible that every playoff team will come from the top half in payroll.

            Basically, if your team is in the top 10, it has a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If it’s not, it has a 15% chance.

            Like

          3. Richard

            M:

            Well, yeah, that’s true but
            1. That’s a lot different from “If your team isn’t in the top 10, you’re better off rooting for the Washington Generals.”
            2. It’s really no different from college football. If you’re OSU, you expect to win the conference over half the time. If you’re Northwestern/Minny/IU/PU, you can’t realistically expect a conference title more than once every 10 years on average, if that.

            In any case, it also means (IMHO) that when the conference is won, it’s really satisfying.

            Like

        3. Eric

          Actually baseball has a surprising amount of parity. While you can buy a decent team, you can’t buy a World Series. We’ve had 9 teams in the World Series in the last 5 years with only the Phillies going more than once and 14 (if I remember right, don’t want to count now) in the last 10. Missing from that list are big market teams like the Cubs and Mets.

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          Reply
          1. M

            The “saving grace” of the baseball playoffs is that they are nearly random. A 5 or 7 game series isn’t enough for the percentages to play out when the best teams only win 65% of their games against average competition.

            Like

        4. SideshowBob

          Of course payroll would have a high corrolation with winning. That’s just logical since by and large better players are going to cost more. And, furthermore, because teams at different parts of a winning cycle are going to have different payrolls — if you are competitive and have a good chance to win, you expand payroll by adding complimentary players; if you are in a down part of the cycle, you shed payroll and expensive players.

          None of that has to do with parity.

          Parity would be illustrated by whether different teams have high payrolls at different times. And that’s very much been the case. Sure, the Yankees and, to a lesser extent, the Red Sox are outliers who have consistently had high payrolls, but otherwise teams are constantly going up and down the list. The Phillies are way up there now, but were in the botton end of payroll a decade ago (and only in the middle about 5 years ago, before they started getting good). Teams like the Mets, Tigers, Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Cardinals, Braves, and so on have all been at the top of payroll list at times but have fluctuated. Payroll rankings are not static.

          Ironically, MLB has had a tremendous amount of parity despite people constantly saying it does not. And this despite having the most exclusive playoffs in the major pro sports. In the last decade, there has been 9 different World Series champs. There have been 14 different teams (almost half of all the teams!) that have appears in the World Series. In that time, 25 different teams have made the playoffs. Hell, in the past 5 years, 22 different teams made the playoffs. In the past 3 years, 16 different teams made the playoffs (out of a possible 24 spots). How can you describe that as anything, but parity?

          Yes, the Yankees make the playoffs virtually every year. That’s true. And that’s an outlier. One. One team that has won one World Series in the past decade. And beyond that, there is nothing that makes MLB any less even than any other spot. Hell, have you ever seen the results of the NBA playoffs? That is a league without parity.

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          1. Brian

            Perhaps if the Yankees and Red Sox didn’t get approximately 85% of all the ESPN MLB coverage, people wouldn’t feel as strongly about it.

            That said, the Yankees are a pretty big outlier:
            NYY (25%) – 27 World Series wins (17 more than STL) in 106 years

            I think that’s why people don’t believe there is parity.

            However, most pro sports have that problem, with the NFL as the exception:
            Celtics (27%) – 17 championships (1 more than LAL) in 62 years
            Lakers (26%) – 16 championships (10 more than Bulls) in 62 years
            Canadiens (23%) – 24 Stanley Cups (11 more than Leafs, 13 more than Wings) in 105 years
            Steelers (12.5%) – 6 Super Bowl wins (1 more than 2 teams) in 48 years

            Teams needed to get 50% or more of all titles:
            NBA – 2
            NHL – 4
            MLB – 4
            NFL – 6

            Two teams have over half of the NBA titles. That’s the definition of a lack of parity.

            Like

          2. Eric

            Yankees have a ton of World Series overall, but look at where those were. A huge portion were through the 20-60s. They’ve got 2 more in the 70s, none in the 80s and then went a good run with Joe Torry in the late 90s and into 2000. If you are talking about historic parity then the answer is absolutely not. If you are talking about now though, I don’t think their World Series record supports the sport being all that uneven. They have an advantage to be sure (one that the I’d don’t even think is bad for baseball, you want the Yankees making the playoffs most years to either come through or be the bad guys), but it’s less than its usually made out to be and they are the most extreme example in the sport by a good margin.

            Like

          3. Brian

            Eric,

            Most fans do a poor job of separating history from now. The old WS victories don’t impact the current game except they help swing the media coverage to the NYY. The media gives the impression of NYY domination despite no WS in a while. There are also a lot of small market team fans that don’t see the NYY always in the playoffs and them rarely in as parity.

            Like

          4. Eric

            Very good analysis with against the NBA by the way. I don’t really follow it and had no idea the numbers were that screwed.

            Like

          5. M

            The payroll figures vary a little, but not a lot. Of the 75 “top half” payroll slots in the last 5 years, 59 of them are from the following 12 teams:

            NYY
            Boston
            Detroit
            CWS
            Texas
            LAA
            Atlanta
            Philadelphia
            CHC
            St. Louis
            LAD
            SF

            Those teams account for the 29 of the last 40 playoff spots (counting this year), 20 of the last 24 pennants, and the 7 most recent World Series champions. Going back to the strike, only of 3 of the 15 WS winners have been peasant-class teams, and two of those (’97 Florida, ’01 Arizona) were in the top 10 in payroll in the years they won.

            In other words, if your team isn’t on that list, it has a 3/270 chance of winning the World Series (.011 winning percentage). If your team is in the bottom half of payroll, it has a 1/225 chance (.004 winning percentage). In fairness, the Generals’ winning percentage is a bit lower than .004, but not by much.

            The NBA’s divide might be worse, but that doesn’t make the MLB’s problem any less. As I said, I’ll look at the opening day payrolls and can easily determine if my team has any chance that year.

            Like

          6. Richard

            M:

            Again, how is that different from college football and revenues? How many national champions have there been in recent memory who weren’t in the top half (or even the top quarter) of the highest-revenue-generating college football programs?

            Also, how are you calculating those odds? You can’t just multiply, you know (I’ll let a statistician explain that one).

            Like

          7. M

            @Richard

            1-The Big Ten has had 22 champions or co-champions in that same period (’95 to present). 8 of them have been by teams who were middle or worse in football revenue last year. It’s certainly more difficult, but not prohibitively so.

            2-I have a much greater connection to various colleges than I do to any professional team. I can cheer for certain teams because of the overall school, not just as football teams.

            3-College football has acknowledged underdogs, pro leagues just have teams with no money. Colleges deal with a wide variety of restrictions, which leads to different measures of success.

            4-College sports don’t have the indignity an athlete leaving for an opposing team. Lower tier professional teams are a glorified farm system.

            The math:
            18 “peasant class” teams x 15 years = 270 team-years
            3 winners / 270 team-years = .01 winner / team-year = 1% chance of winning

            15 bottom half teams per year x 15 years = 225 team-years
            1 winner / 225 team-years = 0.4% chance of winning

            I’m not sure what you mean by “you can’t just multiply”. Probability = event/sample space

            Like

          8. Brian

            M,

            You mentioned the fraction of playoff spots, fraction of pennants and fraction of WS won before you went on to give your probabilities. It was reasonable at first glance to think you might have multiplied those. A look at the numbers show that’s not what you did, but your lead in to it may have been misleading to some.

            Like

          9. bullet

            The real impact of the salaries is by looking at what has happened since free agency came into full force.

            The Reds and the Pirates were the top 2 powers of the National League, 2 peasants. They built their teams before the Curt Flood case. They’ve rarely made the playoffs since the early 80s. 2 non-peasants, the Dodgers and Phillies, were their primary challengers.

            The AL’s top teams were 1st the Athletics, then the Yankees, then the Royals, 2 out of 3 peasants. The Royals are rarely seen. The Athletics have had a few good years.

            Like

          11. Richard

            M:

            “1-The Big Ten has had 22 champions or co-champions in that same period (’95 to present). 8 of them have been by teams who were middle or worse in football revenue last year. It’s certainly more difficult, but not prohibitively so.”

            Same is true for making the baseball playoffs.

            “2-I have a much greater connection to various colleges than I do to any professional team. I can cheer for certain teams because of the overall school, not just as football teams.”

            Some people feel that way about their baseball teams, due to the long history (I grew up near St. Louis).

            “3-College football has acknowledged underdogs, pro leagues just have teams with no money. Colleges deal with a wide variety of restrictions, which leads to different measures of success.”

            Huh? Teams with no money are underdogs. If you don’t see it that way, well, there’s not much more I can say.

            “4-College sports don’t have the indignity an athlete leaving for an opposing team. Lower tier professional teams are a glorified farm system.”

            That’s not really true of MLB these days. Not sure what sports you follow, but these days, even the low payroll teams are able to lock up their star players for years.

            “Of the top 15 players in MLB from 2001 through 2010, just four have ever been available as free agents.”:
            http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/joe_sheehan/07/29/free.agent.market/index.html#ixzz1UOACdtr0

            Like

          12. M

            Richard,

            That article has to be some sort of a cruel joke. I couldn’t find WAR numbers from 2000-2010, but of the active players, 18 of the top 20 players are on one of the 12 teams I listed.

            Let’s look at the teams the article lists as “successful”.

            Indians- among the top 5 in payroll for the years they were good. When they stopped spending money, they stopped being good. 2 pennants, 0 World Series
            Giants- not sure why they are here. They are one of the “haves”, consistently spending in the top half
            Brewers- 0 pennants, 0 World Series
            Twins- 0 pennants, 0 World Series
            Mariners- 0 pennants, 0 World Series
            Nationals/Expos- 0 pennants, 0 World Series

            The Jacobs’ Field Indians are particularly horrific as an example of a team keeping its stars:
            Albert Belle- signed away by the White Sox
            Manny Ramirez- signed away by the Red Sox
            Bartolo Colon- traded when it became clear he was going to leave
            Carlos Baerga (who was a major star at the time)- traded when it became clear he was going to leave
            Jim Thome- signed away by the Phillies

            Truly, these are models that any small market team can copy and be successful. All that’s missing is a reference to how “moneyball” helped the A’s win 1 playoff series in almost 15 years of implementation.

            As far as rooting for the underdog teams, I don’t really see cheapskate owners as sympathetic figures.

            Like

          13. Richard

            M:

            Some are cheapskate owners, though if you don’t see the inherent disadvantages of a team located in the 39th (Milwaukee) or 28th (Cleveland) largest metropolitan areas, then you’re really not looking.

            BTW, true, Sheehan’s pretty terrible; probably the worst of the original BP contributors, yet he got the SI gig.

            Like

          14. jcfreder

            Nice work by M. Really, to the extent MLB has “parity,” most of it is due to the random nature of the playoffs. So really it’s a “two wrongs make a right” situation. In my view, a more perfect system would have more true parity during the regular season and then crown a playoff champion on true merit rather than the coin-flip of 5 or 7 game series.

            The AL is essentially English league soccer, but (1) there are playoffs, and (2) NYY and BOS can only take up 2 of the 4 spots every year.

            Plus, parity is more than just pure wins/losses. Sometimes it seems that with its budgets, NYY or BOS are playing a different game than the other teams in terms of being able to paper over any hole/mistake with a pauper team’s best player. There is value in the Indianapolis Colts getting to hang onto Peyton Manning for his career rather than having him quickly slide over to the Giants.

            As for the NBA, basketball is a different game. The best players influence the games much much more. I have no problem with the teams that drafted Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Tim Duncan winning all those championships.

            Like

    2. Richard

      OK, my original post awaits moderation because of links, so here’s the post without:

      Has he ever heard of European soccer? Those leagues are probably the most unbalanced in the world, and they draw in more money, per capita, than the NFL. The NFL had revenues of $8.5B in ’09-’10. The Premier League brought in just a bit over 2B sterling in the same time period in a nation with 1/6th the population.

      For that matter, MLB beats out the NFL in licensing/merchandising revenues even though MLB has far less parity:

      Parity is overrated. In fact, one of the reasons why I don’t follow the NFL any more is because there’s no reason for a neutral fan to cheer for one team over another since there are no favorites or underdogs (and I don’t care for fantasy football).

      Like

      Reply
  61. Brian

    So, with going to 9 games some schedule changes OOC need to happen. The B10 did a pretty good job of picking the 6 teams with 5 home games in odd and even years. Here are a few things to keep an eye on:

    MSU
    at EMU in 2018 or 2020 (not a problem to change)
    at BSU in 2022 (switch with 2021 game or drop series)

    MN
    at CO in 2021 (should switch with 2021 game, it would help CO too)

    NW
    at Duke in 2017 (switch with 2018 game or just play 6 home games)

    OSU
    at TN in 2018 (switch with 2019 game)
    Need to lock versus UGA in 2020, at UGA in 2021 (sites TBD now)

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    1. Richard

      NU almost certainly would just play 6 home games. Minny probably will as well.

      BTW, with the current schedule, NU is set up to host 8 home games in 2018. I don’t think that’s ever happened before.

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      1. Brian

        Sorry, I had a typo there.

        MN plays at CO in 2021 and home versus CO in 2022. CO and MN are on the same plan of 5 road games in odd years, though. MN might play 6-6 or they might drop the series.

        My thought was that the AD would prefer to have the steadier cash flow from 7 in both years rather than 6 then 8, if Duke can make it work to switch.

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        1. Richard

          Considering that NU switches between 6 and 7 home games already, the budget probably can get by with 6 home games. Switching the Duke home games around would lead to 2 home games in a row followed by a visit to NC for NU, which both schools probably don’t want.

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  62. Brian

    http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-hawks/l-a-businessman-buying-1083677.html

    The dark era of the Atlanta Spirit Group looks to be over. LA businessman Alex Meruelo has a deal to buy over 50% of the Hawks pending NBA approval. He’ll be the first hispanic owner in the NBA, but not the first Cuban. He has no plans to move the Hawks.

    The ASG was started by a guy from Boston, two from DC and 1 from Atlanta. They bought the Hawks and Thrashers and led to Atlanta losing a second NHL team to western Canada.

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  63. ccrider55

    Ran across an aggie sight posting a FOIA obtained UT/ESPN contract. with considerable commentary included. Link to full contract at the end. Any legal types out there, with a bunch of free time, care to translate a brief and less passionate/prejudiced opinion? I got bleary eyed by page 5. And I’m not a lawyer….
    http://themidnightyell.blogspot.com/

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    1. M

      Let’s see if I can summarize this more descriptively than “Texas is now a fully owned subsidiary of ESPN”.

      -Texas agrees to help ESPN secure 2+ football games per year, 8+ basketball games, high school games, and home/away games/tournaments in other sports, total 200+ (!) athletic events per year

      -ESPN gets the rights to all Texas athletic games “with the exception of the rights controlled by the Conference and the NCAA”. It’s unclear what this means for Texas’ road games.

      -If Texas fails to procure the above, ESPN can cancel the contract with 30 days notice

      -If Texas goes independent or to another conference, ESPN gets to match any television contract for all of Texas’ media rights including 1st and 2nd tier.

      -Texas gets $11 million a year, not $15, as the other $4 goes to IMG

      -If the network makes more than $295 million for ESPN, Texas gets 70% of the overage

      -Texas can reject announcers/studio people at any point and ESPN must remove them

      -“in no event shall any Network or Digital Network programming or Content include any content, excepting factual news reporting and related commentary, that is in any significant part derogatory or disparaging to, or could reasonable be expected to harm the reputation or image of, UT…” got bored typing. Basically, ESPN is legally barred from saying anything negative about UT.

      -There’s a brief reference to a “PTI-Longhorn” show. I’m slightly horrified.

      -ESPN gets an unspecified number of Texas season tickets

      -Texas is not liable if it fails in the contract due to “acts of God, acts of nature, labor disputes, riots, wars…” I always love this clause.

      -The network is guaranteed to have at least 27 coaches shows per week… I’m guessing they allow reruns

      -ESPN has to make fundraising videos for Texas athletics

      The 200 events is the most eye popping part. If they can’t get high school stuff (which they were clearly planning on), I’m pretty sure Texas doesn’t have 200 home games/matches/meets in its entire (relatively small) athletic department.

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      1. Richard

        Well, baseball, softball, M & W basketball, and W soccer add up to a decent amount.

        I guess they could purchase away games in minor sports. Are there JV teams in any sports?

        Maybe they could show JC games as well. Does Texas traditionally tap junior college transfers?

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        1. M

          Some rough numbers:

          Football-2
          M Basketball-8
          M Tennis-15
          Baseball-30
          W Basketball-20
          W Soccer-10
          Softball-30
          W Tennis-10
          Volleyball-15
          ~=140 home games

          Even if they get every away game in every sport except football, men’s basketball, and women’s basketball, I don’t think they get to 200.

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          1. bullet

            There’s still M&W swimming and diving, M&W track, the Texas Relays, M&W cross country, M&W golf and W rowing. And in sports other than M&W basketball and football, I imagine it won’t be much trouble getting road contests on the air. The other schools will want the exposure.

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          2. ccrider55

            True, but what level of carriage will that drive? Avoiding failure to fulfill is a long way from being successful.

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          3. bullet

            I think those sports were all anticipated so its not avoiding failure. HS football was going only going to be 2 games a week, so that’s only 22 games before the playoffs.

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    2. Brian

      There are some bits in there that don’t look good on the surface. I’m sure it’s mostly standard contractese, but they did seem to include some things that on the surface go against what UT said publicly.

      1. They both want at least 2 football games per year
      2. UT has to help LHN get away game rights for free if at all possible
      3. UT has to help LHN win the rights to all state championship games once the current deal runs out, and LHN has first right of refusal to match the offer
      4. ESPN had the choice of putting the studio on campus or not, as long as UT approved the spot

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    3. Michael in Raleigh

      Wow. Biased as that blog post is, it’s a very revealing piece. I’ve maintained that the Big 12 would figure out a way to make things work as a ten-member league. Now, though,the details in that contract, coupled with UT officials’ lying about their role in getting an in-conference game on the network, have led me to believe the league will indeed have a perpetually rocky future.

      We already know that Texas is too important to the Big 12 for the conference to survive without, but this contract makes it apparent that UT is also too toxic for the conference to ever be truly healthy.

      Thanks ccrider55 for posting the link and to M for summarizing. Looking forward to FTT’s input…

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  64. Brian

    http://www.freep.com/article/20110807/SPORTS06/110807015/Michigan-wide-receiver-Darryl-Stonum-redshirted-DUI-aftermath?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|Sports

    Trouble at Michigan. Darryl Stonum is being redshirted for his DUI, which was his second alcohol related offense at MI. And after all the special teams problems last year, it can’t be good to lose the only punter on the roster for 4 games.

    More importantly, this was Hoke’s first real chance to be a disciplinarian and he is doing it. Unlike so many coaches (Mark Dantonio, Brian Jelly, etc) he’s taking a legal offense seriously. It’s good to see. As a comparison, Michael Floyd got a DUI as his third alcohol related offense in 2 years at ND and is fully reinstated now after missing spring practice.

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    1. John

      And pretty tough for UT to sit back and claim they had no knowledge of what ESPN was trying to do w/ respect to additional conference games or high school telecasts when it’s there in black n white. Isn’t it also interesting for all those who claim Texas does NOT want to go independent to see preparations for that possibility being put into place as we speak. They’re just being careful right? ; )

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  66. John

    Didn’t see the posts above, but now that I have I have a question about Brian’s point #2. Could someone speak to what this means as I’m confused about “try to get away games for free.” Is that saying ESPN will not select UT conference road basketball games on weeknights for nat’l coverage (ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU) so that they’ll be available for the LHN? Since I’m a fan of another Big XII conference school, that would suck.

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    1. Redhawk

      Yes, John, it COULD mean that. Mostly it means if UT plays at Baylor in Softball, that UT will try to get Baylor to GIVE UT the programing rights.

      Also….if the Big 12 actually got a network, and they wanted to broadcast that same Baylor/UT softball game, they couldn’t, as UT can’t be on another network (as I read it, but not sure how that works, as the broadcast rights would actually be owned by Baylor)

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      1. John

        Thanks Redhawk,
        In general as a fan I have a real problem with having to go to a rival team’s channel in order to watch my team. My reasoning is because my father taught me to honor the “Norm Stewart theory” in which you always stopped in KC Missouri, before entering the state of Kansas, to fill up w/ gas in order to prevent your tax dollars from going to KU. A powerful LHN would be that example times 1000.

        It still really makes me wonder if conference expansion won’t begin from the bottom up. Can the Big East come up with enough money to entice KU/KSU or something like that. Is everyone focusing on the wrong dominoes by looking at the “brands.” Yes the big boys (Big Ten/SEC) won’t tumble any more dominoes unless they’re satisfied they know how all will fall, but could a “lesser” conference send enough of a shockwave to bring them all down ahead of time?

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      2. Brian

        If the B12 got a network, it would have first chance at those rights. Only after the network says no would the rights revert to Baylor. Then Baylor could give or sell (probably give, since they’re a TX school and can get home exposure for their team) those rights to LHN.

        UT can’t give or sell the rights to any of their home games to anybody else, but UT can never have the rights to road games or conference tournaments. Those belong to the home school or B12. UT has no control over their road games being shown elsewhere.

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        1. Redhawk

          couple of points @Brian
          1) actually the Big 12 Network in the example of a UT AT Baylor softball game would be Baylor’s and would go to the Big 12 Network, assuming the Big 12 Network was a conglomeration of all the schools (besides UT) third tier rights.
          2) NO school is going to sell games to UT….not even a rowing match. No school wants their fans to have to pay UT to the right to watch their school play. Tech just turned down $5million for football.

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          1. Brian

            1. I don’t see where we are disagreeing about rights for the example. The network would have the rights and could choose to give them back to Baylor if they don’t have a use for them (like the PPV football games now because FSN doesn’t want them).

            2. Baylor and TT might sell non-revenue sports to the LHN. If their fans have to pay for the channel anyway, they might as well get some air time for their teams. It wouldn’t make sense for OU, OkSU, KU, KSU, MO or ISU, and I don’t think TAMU would do it with their fans so mad already.

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          2. Richard

            We could also very well see Texas work out an arrangement with several CUSA schools who are in Texas where Texas is willing to schedule home-and-homes in baseball/softball/volleyball with those schools as long as Texas gets the TV rights to the away games as well. In fact, we could see Texas baseball and women’s basketball play all OOC games either at home or at a CUSA school in Texas. Softball, in particular, seems to be filled with tournaments. It probably wouldn’t cost the LHN anything to get softball & volleyball tournaments.

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    2. greg

      This isn’t really a B10 blog, more of an expansion blog that happens to have more B10 readers. And there is already mrsec.com, which seems to be one of the best CFB sites out there.

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      1. duffman

        greg,

        I think you are correct, as the only ones to offer detailed realignment data and research are FtT and mrsec. I might add Dosh, but she is late to the game and has not researched the non financial issues. My bigger question is who is the PAC equivalent as FtT is B1G centric and mrsec is SEC centric. The PAC is part of the Big 3, but I raised the point on here ages ago about who is their “voice”.

        I think Frank and John at mrsec have succeeded by offering intelligent and thought out responses and have attracted a more long term theory crowd than the average 120 character my team rules, and yours sucks that dominate the blog world. Much less chest thumping on this blog, which leads to more open and rational discussions. Brian and I may not see eye to eye on every issue, but hopefully we have opened each others eyes to perspectives the other may not have seen or thought about. In the sports blog world that is rare indeed.

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        1. Brian

          Hey, eventually I will convince you of the value of Duke hoops beyond Coach K. They were the 8th team to win 1000 games, and that was all before him (along with 2 national players of the year, 3 ACC players of the year and 10 conference titles). Coach K made them a king, but they were a top flight program before him and will be after him.

          But seriously, you and I agree on plenty of things. It’s the differences that you remember because those are the things we have discussions about. Posting “Yes, I agree with Duffman” just doesn’t seem to add much.

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          1. duffman

            HaHa, I know we agree on many things, but it is usually when we are on different viewpoints that I learn something, or view something with a different set of eyes. You can teach an old dog new tricks, and wisdom comes from seeing things multiple ways before making a decision. 🙂

            On duke, it is not just coach K but a combination of 3 things:

            1) coach K
            2) alumni
            3) football

            Duke may find a replacement for K, but spitting out the same number of alumni as say Ohio State and selling 60,000+ seats a game in football are the part of the iceberg unseen when looking at the surface. It was not the part of the iceberg seen by those on deck that sunk it, it was the part unseen that ripped the hole that sent her to the bottom. The day I am dealing with a scalper and Duke is the harder ticket is when I will cut you some more slack on this issue 😉

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          2. Brian

            I won’t argue about football, except to point out that it is less important in ACC country to their total value.

            I won’t argue about the number of alumni, either. The only benefit is that many of their alumni are very well off and can donate a ridiculous amount. They are, pardon the phrase, well endowed.

            Duke hoops, with a tiny arena, made $26.6M in revenue, while ACC #3 MD made $10.7M (UNC was at $20.6M). B10 #1 WI made $17.7M. Yes, Duke FB revenue lags by a lot ($16.1M compared to an ACC median of $20.2M) but that is partially due to the ACC TV deal. Given their head start in MBB revenue, they come out OK. Duke’s total revenue of $47.9M is on par with NW ($48.9M) and even IL ($53.5). With a better TV deal, Duke would squeeze into the range of B10 schools.

            I’m not advocating them as an addition, at least not by themselves, but their hoops is so valuable that it covers up their lack of FB.

            I know, you think they will slide back after Coach K and the hoops will lose value but I want to see proof. IN hoops still rakes in cash and they’ve stunk for years. Yes, I know IN has a much bigger alumni base, but I’m guessing people will keep buying Duke tickets because if they fall off the season ticket list it will be tough to get back on.

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          3. duffman

            brian,

            I have said all along I am a basketball guy, here are some firsthand observations:

            #1) Several years ago I was in Austin when MSU played there. Scalpers were getting 4x face for the UK tickets, MSU was next, then Utah (I was staying at a Utah hotel). Day of the game duke failed to sell their allotment and I sat 8 rows from the floor in the Duke section.

            #2) Duke played IU in Rupp a few years ago and I sat on the second row of the Duke section with tickets purchased below face value.

            #3) Duke plays Butler in Indy for the banner. With no IU or UK the tickets dropped drastically (to at least 60 cents on the dollar). The only thing that stopped total free fall was that Butler (and IU fans) put a dent in the glut

            #4) I could not get decent tickets when MSU and UNC played for the banner just a year or two earlier, and I have been dealing with scalpers since before many on here were born

            I know this is less “official” than pure hard numbers, but ticket scalpers are the best thing I can find to gauge live fan support. I remember several years ago discussing this with a longtime scalper and his dream game from the scalper side was UK vs UNC. Next was IU vs UK. Next was UNC vs KU. After that, it dropped quickly, but he said to me point blank he hated Duke vs anybody because there was no demand. Several family and friends are Duke grads, and I have never know them to cough up the coin to see Duke live.

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          4. Brian

            Duke sells in NYC, and parts of NC (not like UNC, but well). Duke alums generally don’t value sports as much as state school fans, as they see it as sort of beneath them to care too much. But that doesn’t mean the program doesn’t make money, and that’s what matters to the powers that be.

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          5. I’ve said something like this before, but I firmly believe that Duke to my generation (early 30s and younger) is what Notre Dame was to previous generations as a universal lightning rod. Duke’s value is with respect to the casual sports fan that I like to talk about. The average person really doesn’t have much of an opinion about even blue bloods like UNC basketball or Ohio State football, but virtually *everyone* has a strong opinion about Duke. I see duffman’s point that Duke fans don’t necessarily travel in the same manner as Kentucky/Indiana/Kansas/UNC, yet that’s not unexpected when you compare the school sizes. From a TV perspective, Duke’s power is unquestioned – they are the #1 draw in college basketball year-in and year-out and it’s been that way for the past 20 years. It’s more than just a Coach K-driven vehicle at this point – people hate Duke because it’s DOOK. Plus, they draw in the douchebag demo like no one else (and America has a whole lot of douchebags).

            For a football comparison regarding traveling fan bases, a school like Iowa is complete gold for a bowl game that’s trying to fill seats, while Miami isn’t good for ticket sales at all. Does that mean that Iowa is more valuable than Miami for conferences? Certainly not, especially when looking at Miami’s TV drawing power.

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          6. duffman

            Frank,

            I agree 100% about the DOOK / Dbag comment, but that drives on the cult of personality of coach K. This was sort of the point I was making about Wooden at UCLA or JoPa at PSU. The individual can cast such a shadow that the next coach struggles to get out from under it. Sure Stern and Rush can tweak the masses and drive ratings, but will their cult of personality doom the next person to sit in their seat? The Cowboys needed the Steelers to drive their rise to the top, but they had Jerry Jones personality keep them as “americas team” or the team you hate. The Yankees have history and a personality like Steinbrenner. I would argue that the biggest thing with IU was not having Knight’s personality to sell tickets.

            I would go the step further into politics. Many old farts who sit around and discuss this believe Gore distancing himself from Clinton cost him the White House. Scandal or not, Clinton had such a cult of personality that having him around would have gotten Gore the votes for a clearer win. Clinton was perceived as a bubba, and Gore was stiff. Clinton would have taken bubba vote from bush the same way Perot took vote from Bush sr. (no this is not intended to start a political debate, and is for illustrative use only)

            I get your Iowa / Miami argument, but I would counter that without the personality of the coach and player, their demand HAS dropped. A guy on the street could name Miami’s coach in the hot years, I would be willing to bet today the guy on the street could not. Granted a generation is an excellent start for long term exposure, but a century is much better. Remember my post about Chicago and Minnesota dominating the B1G. I am willing to bet folks thought it would last, but both fell hard without their touchstone coach. Izzo and Knight win games, but Knight won the press conferences hands down.

            To be clear I am not saying Duke will not succeed post K, I am just saying I am more skeptical than you or brian. 🙂

            If Butler had hit that shot in Lucas the Laettner clip would be replaced, and in a generation nobody would remember Laettner outside of Duke / UK fans and some old basketball fans like me. Public opinion can change that quick in our modern 15 second attention span of the bulk of America. Folks will remember Jordan longer because he did it in the pros, while Laettner did not. The problem with celebrity is staying in the public eye once you get there.

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          7. Alan from Baton Rouge

            Duff, Frank & Brian – At a press conference, UConn’s Jim Calhoun was asked about Duke once and replied, “DOOK is DOOK. They’re on on TV… more … than “Leave it to Beaver” re-runs.”

            Sorry, I couldn’t find a Youtube clip to link. Jim Rome used to play this clip every time he discussed DOOK.

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          9. Brian

            http://forums.nationalchamps.net/boards/archive/index.php/t-111.html contains a dead link to an article that said:

            “Last weekend, 3.9 million people turned on CBS to watch No. 1 Ohio State play No. 2 Wisconsin. It was the biggest television audience for a college basketball game this season. Back in November, 4.7 million viewers turned on CBS to watch No. 16 Georgia Tech play unranked Georgia in what was the fifth-most watched college football game of the day”

            This is a quote from an article in 2007, but it shows the difference between CFB and MBB. March Madness does better, but the BCS NCG was second to the Super Bowl for most viewed program of the year again this year.

            Some people try to say the better March Madness ratings justify scrapping the BCS for a playoff, but I think the regular season ratings show why that’s a problem.

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        2. bullet

          The west actually has a decent reporter in John Wilner (?sp) of the San Jose MercuryNews. He writes on a lot of these issues that not many reporters pick up on until the press conference announcing the changes.

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          1. greg

            Agreed that Wilner seems to be the top PAC voice in all of this. But its a newspaper site, which means the comments are not a place you want to hang out if you desire intelligent discourse.

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          2. duffman

            bullet,

            I think your point is valid, but I agree with greg about the intelligent discourse comment 100%. Does he have a separate blog that can be followed without going through his paper?

            I would also add that I do not care for sites where you must pay or must log in and have an account. Maybe I am an old guy but I think the best discussions come without such strings. ESPN comment site is free, but you have to have an account to post. Look at the discussions there as proof why you never want an account there in the first place. 🙂

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    1. Richard

      I think that we’ll see what I suggested before, with the first 2 weeks split between weeks 2-5, so cupcakes as late as early October, but conference games after that (unless a school schedules an OOC game during a bye week, as NU did with ND).

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      1. Brian

        Yes, I was projecting that at least some schools will fill a late bye with a cupcake so they have a week off more in the middle of the season. It’ll depend at least partly on when the byes come and what games are around then.

        OSU has a bye in week 11 in 2012, and that’s the sort of timing that could become a cupcake and move the bye earlier depending on the B10 schedule.

        I must say, I don’t really like the B10’s distribution of byes coming up, especially in 2013-4 when there are 2 byes. 8 teams get a week 5 bye (no other week gets more than 4 byes), and Purdue gets back to back byes in 2013 in weeks 5 and 6.

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        1. bullet

          I really dislike meaningless ooc games late in the season. I think few fans have interest. I don’t think the players have much interest.

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          1. Brian

            I think coaches prefer to have a pseudo off week but with a game to keep the players sharp and focused. Many teams don’t play well coming off a bye, but fewer seem to struggle coming off a cupcake.

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          2. Eric

            I definitely dislike meaningless conference games late in the season. I’d prefer all nonconference games first, but if we are going to move up a conference game, let’s make it the 3rd week and rather than the first two weeks. I want the teams at least a couple of games together before they get into the ones that really matter.

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  71. mushroomgod

    What do you guys think of the recent rumors of OU, OSU, TT, and Kansas possibly to to the PAC 12?

    Larry Scott seems like a very aggressive expansionist commish……….he’s not going to get TX….is he ready to do this deal?

    If so, do the SEC and BIG go to 14 or 16? I could see the SEC and BIG stopping at 14.

    I’m thinking the SEC might add A@M and ????? I don’t think they will be able to steal NCS, VT, Clemson, or FSU from the ACC. Maybe they add WVU and stop.. Then maybe the BIG adds Pitt/Rut and MO and stops, since ND isn’t ready to budge………………………..what do you think? p.

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    1. greg

      I think that P12 adding OU/OSU/TT/KU could be a mistake that endangers the long term health of the conference. So I don’t see it happening, but Scott does seem bent on expansion.

      If it does happen, I could see more expansion not so much to “keep up”, but due to the names that will be looking for a conference. TAMU, UT, etc., may all be looking for a place to land.

      I don’t think the B10 is going to do a Pitt/Rut/MO kind of expansion. They’ve added two teams in 60 years, and they are both kings. They aren’t going to add a jester like Rutgers. We’ve seen that 12 teams is making it difficult for teams to play each other as much as they like, 16 is the nuclear option.

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    2. Eric

      I see almost zero chance of it. Oklahoma was very clear they wanted to stay with Texas last year and Kansas has the issue of probably having to stay with Kansas State. I also strongly question that the PAC-12 would be able to do that now right after signing a contract.

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    3. I don’t see why either side would do this. Would Texas Tech be allowed to leave the other Texas schools behind? Would Oklahoma really want to join the P12 over staying with Texas or jumping to the SEC?

      From the P12 perspective, why would you take on a mediocre package of four when ultimately you are in the catbird seat as far as Texas goes?—Someday, if there really is armageddon that leads to 16-team conferences, the P12 has to be considered the favorite for UT. (Similarly to how the B10 has to be the favorite for ND in such a scenario).

      And finally, from a more overarching perspective, why would the P12 or anybody go to 16, unless there was a huge financial windfall behind it. We’ve all seen the rush to get to 12, but you can see the logic behind that in terms of revenue. Even with adding Oklahoma, I can;t see how these four teams raises the bar on a per-school basis for the P12. In my view, the only reason you’d go to 16 would be because of a grand-slam-type addition. Texas, ND and Texas A&M seem to be the only ones out there. If you go to 16 without any of these 3 schools, you’re almost guranteeing that when the dominos stop falling, the biggest fish went to your competitors.

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      1. Brian

        I think TT would be allowed to go. If TT said no, the P12 could replace them (MO to partner with KU maybe) or stop at 14 with OU and OkSU. They wouldn’t be the cause of the problem, and UT and TAMU would still be there to protect Baylor.

        The issue is what the rest of the B12 does. Does UT go independent, join another conference or try to be the anchor for the B12 to rebuild around? Will the politicos let UT and TAMU leave once the B12 has already splintered? Do they have to go to the same place?

        I think the B12 is so entangled with politics and co-dependency that it is actually fairly stable. Losing UT, TAMU or OU would probably kill it, but none of those teams really can or will leave.

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    4. Brian

      1. I think Scott is happy to just do the work of integrating 2 new teams, adding a CCG that rotates so that all 12 teams have to be ready to host it, and building the P12 network. He has plenty on his plate as it is.

      2. I don’t think those 4 are interested. Nobody but TAMU has said much of anything negative.

      3. There’s no way the P12 presidents would agree to go to 16 right now, since there is no financial argument to push it.

      4. Even Scott has said that while he thinks consolidation will happen eventually, he can’t predict when.

      5. If you get OU, OSU and TT, there’s a decent chance UT would follow. I don’t think they want to go independent, at least not right now, and there other choices are the SEC and B10. They could work a deal with the LHN morphing into the regional P12 network and paying UT less.

      6. The P12 would draw the least reaction from the SEC and B10 due to distance. However, the SEC would almost have to take TAMU with the B12 defunct and the B10 would consider MO (to keep them away from the SEC) in your scenario. If they didn’t go P12, KU would either go BE or maybe ACC if they have a hole to fill. KSU and ISU may have to go MWC unless KU can bring them along somewhere.

      7. The biggest shame in expansion is that quality schools like ISU always lose out due to location. I wish the financial realities were different so the B10 could justify taking them.

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    5. duffman

      shroom,

      the question to ask is why are 12 and 16 the “golden” numbers!

      12 gets you a CCG and the added revenue it brings

      16 gets you 8 team divisions or 4 team pods, with the end run to a playoff

      13 / 14 / 15 gets you neither

      just an observation

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      1. mushroomgod

        Except that 14 adds TV sets and the BTN beast needs to be fed. The logical reason to go to 14 or 16 is the BTN. But it’s a hell of a reason. Don’t forget that Delaney also talked about absolute #s of alumni as being important because of shifting national population. Adding NEB didn’t do much there.

        Eventually, the SEC and the PAC 12 will have networkds…SEC’s may be delayed 10 years……Also, the obvious BIG 16 would include ND, MP, Pitt, and Rut. Going to 14 soon might make that transition easier…..

        Also, 14 would mean 6 games inter-division and 3 in the other division each year. 14’s easier to accomodate than 16 in that regard.

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        1. bullet

          14 also allows pods. You could have 2 4 team pods with 2 3 team pods rotating. A hypothetical ACC 14 could be:
          1 FSU,Miami,GT,Clemson
          2 UNC,Duke,UVA
          3 NCSU,WF,VT
          4 MD,BC,Pitt,Notre Dame

          In an 8 game schedule in a 4 team pod, you would get the teams from 2 and 3 every other year, the teams in your pod every year and the teams in the other 4 team pod every other year in your out of division games. 3X4 + 10X2=32 (4 years 8 games a year). In the 3 team pods, they would have 1 every year fival from the opposite 3 team pod.

          And of course, you could have 7 team divisions and still play everyone in the other division at least 2 out of 8 with 8 games and at least 2 out of 6 years with 9 games.

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      2. Brian

        I’d say 18 and 20 are also magic numbers, as you can play a round robin in the division and 1 or no crossovers. Of course, that’s not much of a conference feel for football but many other sports play a lot more often.

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        1. duffman

          Historical precedence via the old SIAA and SoCon tells me there is a point of too big. After 16 you are getting to the laws of diminishing returns on each team added. When you get to West Virginia as a B1G add, or Memphis as an SEC add, what value are you getting for the extra mouth to feed?

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          1. Brian

            Going that large would depend on those teams adding something worthwhile, I was just commenting on the numbers. Maybe it allows the conference to split into divisions that were basically separate conferences in the past (like the P10 and the B12 if they got UT, TAMU, OU, OkSU, KU and TT). Maybe they would give you important market access, like adding USF and UCF for penetration into FL, or SMU, TCU, UH, and Baylor to get TX access.

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    6. Richard

      Shroom:

      Don’t see the Pac taking those 4 (or OU going, or the KS legislature allowing KU to escape) unless the B12 is disintegrating, which means TAMU has to go first.

      Also, why would the Pac take TTech over Mizzou if they could pick and choose?

      Finally, can we stop the BE/Mizzou to B10 speculation? If the B10 wanted those schools, they’d be part of the conference already. Other schools picking apart the B12 isn’t going to make those schools more attractive.

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    1. Eric

      Texas A&M board seems to believe it. All the reasons it can’t be true keep popping up in my mind, but I’ll admit the smoke is beginning to make me wonder about my assumptions.

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      1. Gotta disagree with Frank about the “paradigm shift” issue. It may very well be that they’d like to have flexability re: 4, 4-team divisions in order to expand. But I don’t think it’s a requirement. Think of it this way: if ND begged for a B10 invite tomorrow, would the B10 tell the Irish to wait until NCAA rules change? No way. They’d be in in a heartbeat. The upside with TAM outweighs any logistical problems by a mile, and the SEC would be foolish to turn them down.

        Plus, we all know that the SEC has done its due dilligence. Why even talk with TAM if the curent NCAA structure is a dealbreaker?

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        1. Eric

          Texas A&M is valuable, but I don’t think they are valuable enough that the SEC should be willing to invite them on their own and potentially set off any chain reactions, particularly since it would mean fewer games between the east and west.

          If it was Texas (or Notre Dame for the Big Ten), I’d say it might be worth it, but I don’t think the Aggies are at that level (even if they are high).

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          1. Here’s the thing – I’m not sure how a “chain reaction” can hurt the SEC if they have TAM signed, sealed and delivered. The SEC and B10 are in positions where any seismic shifts probably only help them, because they are the most attractive destinations. I think the B10 would be happy if there was enough instability for ND to start looking for a conference, for example.

            The conferences that have the most to lose with instability are the BE and B12. Members of these conference will look for ‘higher ground” if they can get it. In this analogy, the B10 and SEC are the ones holding their hands down looking to “save” these other schools. In perhaps a perverse way, chaos helps the strongest.

            Furthermore, to the extent anyone is arguing that the TV deals will stop expansion because they cannot be “torn up,” I also have to disagree. You have to strike when the iron is hot. These are 50-year decisions, not 10-year decisions. Again, for example, imagine ND comes asking for a B10 invite. Do you seriously think it matters when the next TV contract renewal is? (To be clear, this point only applies to the home run schools. Which I think TAM is for the SEC, particualry because neither Texas nor ND seem to be good fits for them.)

            In short, I can see Texas politicans killing the deal. Or perhaps TAM is just using this for leverage. But some of these other arguments fall flat for me.

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          2. Eric

            The SEC is the most valuable conference out there right now. People watch it from all over because they know its champion stands a very good chance of being the national champion. If Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, etc (all more valuable than Texas A&M) feel the need to start finding new homes, it’s possible the Big Ten and PAC-12 will start drawing away some of that attention.

            Beyond that, if I was ESPN I would offer no incentives to the SEC to expand. If you want to take a new team and hurt our other deals, fine, but we aren’t going to pay you more to do it. The SEC can try again when it’s contract is closer to running out if market conditions warrant it, but ESPN has every reason to play hard ball here.

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        2. Brian

          Well, usually the paradigm shift is in reference to a way to justify the expansion. Sure, UT, ND, TAMU and OU would carry their weight. Who else would?

          Most of the SEC would probably be fine with having 14 and not playing the other division as much. Beyond AL (TN) and AU (GA), not many in the west have true rivalries with teams in the east.

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        3. bullet

          You have to understand the Aggie mentality and SEC mentality. The Aggie’s have the little brother syndrome. Many fans want anything that will poke UT in the eye. And the SEC doesn’t think its needs anything else. It likes its club like it is. It hardly acknowledges that anyone else plays football.

          So all these rumours need to be taken with a grain of salt and a dose of reality from reading Frank’s writeup above.

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      1. Eric

        Let’s just pretend for a second this actually happened (still thinking it’s unlikely). Who would be the other school coming along? North Carolina would be wanted I think, but almost definitely would reject a move. Virginia Tech would be a little more feasible and who I would go after, but is probably also a no. Florida State might get some opposition from Florida, but I think they’d be the favorite for the SEC to make a serious effort for. If that happens I guess you would just plug in Florida State in the east, Texas A&M in the west and make them crossovers.

        From there, I’m guessing there would be more stability than many are guessing. The Big Ten would probably stand pat for now wanting to get used to 12. The Big 12 I think could remain stable as along as Texas and Oklahoma want it to, which I think they still would. They’d probably want one more member though and I’m guessing BYU would be invited and accept. The ACC would need one more and I think would probably take one Big East school (I know the contract for the Big East might be good, but I think the stability issues in the ACC still outweigh that). I’m not really sure which and could see arguments for any of the northeast members.

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        1. My guess is the SEC already has this largely figured out, but if they were starting from scratch, I’d go in this order:

          1) It can’t hurt to ask Texas just to be sure — either a Texas-TAM duo, or a Tex-TAM-Okl-OSU combo

          2) Couldn’t hurt to at least ask about Oklahoma as a solo option.

          3) Then it gets much harder. If the goal is 16, it’d be hard to beat TAM-Okl-OSU and someone else. But if the goal is 14, OSU becomes a sticking point. And then you’ve got all the other usual suspects, none of which seems like a no-brainer to me. Probably Va Tech. I have doubts about Mizzou.

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          1. Richard

            Projection of what I think the SEC wishlist is:
            TAMU
            FSU (special case; if allowed in, UF likely will make them join the West division)
            VTech
            Clemson/NCSU/Mizzou

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          3. Brian

            I don’t believe UF has that power. FSU/UGA is a natural rivalry and they constantly recruit each others recruits. Similarly Clemson and SC would want them. I’d let the eastern schools stay east and the western schools stay west with TX as a recruiting ground to balance FL for the east.

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        2. Bamatab

          I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibilty that the SEC could just add aTm and stay at 13 until the following season. This could give them more time to court other teams. But Slive did also make the comment that he could get to 16 teams in 15 minutes. Was he bluffing? who knows, but I think he could find a 14th team pretty quickly if he had to. I’m guessing that Clemson or WV would jump at the chance, but I’m guessing they would be way down on the SEC’s wish list.

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          1. frug

            Well, Slive certainly could get to 16 in 15 minutes it just depends the quality of teams he wants.

            That said, the problem with Clemson is that the academic side of the university is almost universally opposed to the move to the SEC. Apparently, they are afraid if they are no longer affiliated athletically with UNC, Duke and UVa their academic reputation will take a significant hit.

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          2. Richard

            Well, the academic side likely won’t be listened to (and the academic argument would start going away) if the ACC starts collapsing with the B10 raiding off UNC, Duke, UVa, and Maryland.

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    4. Richard

      The really interesting comment on that board (IMHO) is that the “SEC is not targeting OU or any other B12 schools”. Which (if true) means the SEC is targeting at least one ACC school, which means the blueblood core of the old ACC is in likely play.

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  73. duffman

    Since the B12 boards are heated lets step back and look at this with dispassion as a university president or conference leader.

    Slive will not make the first move
    Delany will not make the first move, unless it means a home run add
    Scott is the only one who will make the first move, but is hobbled by politics and limited team options – Scott raiding east of the Mississippi river seems almost impossible

    While the TAMU fanbase may want the SEC, and the SEC may want TAMU who here really thinks Slive will start the war to 16? Sure the ACC or BE can go to 16, but would the B1G / PAC / SEC care? what 4 adds could any lesser conference make that would draw them equal to the Big 3? I said on here earlier that Scott adding OU / oSu / Kansas / Missouri would be an interesting play – especially as the political headache would be minimal compared to adding a Texas schools, but would Scott (who actually calls the shots) see it the same way?

    To go even further, colleges and college presidents operate on a year ending in June, and why realignment happened when it did last year. If there were any fire to all this smoke, I would bet it would be more possible next may than the month before the current football season starts. Not sure any president or AD would want such a distraction during their peak viewing time.

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      1. duffman

        eric,

        I would go a step further to say that reporters are now to lazy to do the real research and it is easier to start speculation to drive hits in the offseason than actually have multiple verifiable real sources in the old days of a print dominated media with tighter liability issues. 🙂 In the modern world of Twitter and blogging, FtT and mrsec are the exceptions, and not the rule. 😦

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        1. Brian

          While that’s true of many reporters, we should also remember that many companies will no longer pay for reporters to do the legwork. They make just as much off of opinion pieces and rumors as in depth sports news, and the other stuff gets cranked out faster.

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    2. While acknowledging that it still seems to me more likely that NOTHING happens, here are my thoughts:

      -If they wanted to, Slive/TAM would be able to convince many many people that they did NOT make the first move. See, Texas did with the LHN, and besides, both the B10 and P10 started this free for all in the first place . . .

      -Like I said above, the only reason a conference would go 13+ is if there are home-run additions. Would the departure of TAM put Texas, Okla and ND in play? Very good chance that it would not. Is it really that much skin off Texas’s nose to see TAM go? Can’t they just bring in BYU/whoever else in and still rake in the cash? And unless all hell breaks loose, ND isn’t moving.

      -No way P12 adds OU/OSU/Kans/Miz unless they are the final movers in the whole thing, and Texas/TAM are off the table forever, and even then maybe they don’t do it. These schools look a lot more appetizing to the P12 presidents if they come along as UT’s little brothers.

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    3. mushroomgod

      I could definately see the SEC making the first move. IMO, they have a lot more and better options than the BIG. And the slimy SEC commish wants to cement the SEC’s place as “the” dominant conference (the BIG has gotten better with addition of Neb).

      Possible SEC options: A@M, OK, OK ST., MO, FSU, Clemson, Va. Tech, WV. NC State has been mentioned, but that won’t happen. I don’t think FSU, Clemson, or Va Tech would happen either, but they are possibilities. One interesting ? here would be “cultural” issues. A@M, OK, and OK ST are as western as they are southern. MO is really midwestern. Right now, SEC is made up of true southerners…..

      BIG? Rut; Pitt; MO. No ND now. And no UNC, Duke, or MD

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    4. Brian

      Slive won’t make the first move only in the sense that he won’t chase TAMU. If TAMU comes to him, he’d be more than happy to be the first to 13 or 14 and add the second school in TX. He won’t be worried about the chain reaction, just what is best for the SEC. The SEC would see it as a badge of honor that they were so powerful they destroyed a fellow AQ conference.

      Delany is in the same position. He won’t actively pursue ND or anyone else, but he’d accept ND or UT or OU or TAMU in a heartbeat (the presidents might balk at OU without an academic counterbalance).

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  75. Harf

    I do wonder though if some movement from the northern schools may force the TX legislatures hand. Kansas, KSU, ISU, and Mizzou were really close to being without a home, and if they feel that the instability is not worth the risk, they may move to grab another seat before the music stops. The Big12 then has the option to become a Texas/OK only conference or to fold and let the schools find the best situation for each. The Texas legislature would then be hard pressed to put pressure on conferences to do anything as they would have no leverage.

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    1. Brian

      But why switch conferences to lose money? There’s no way MO, KU, KSU and ISU move anywhere as an upgrade without ND (MO) or UT/OU/TAMU moving.

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      1. Harf

        Because if they are left without a seat at the end of the day, they stand to lose a lot more money. The Big East would still be able to put a reasonable amount of money into each schools coffers and the move would provide stability for those schools as well as the Big East which would no longer be at risk of being plucked out of existence if/when the superconferences come to pass.

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        1. greg

          I disagree that the BE provides stability if MO/KU/KSU/ISU joins. Seems like a recipe for instability to make a conference that large, with those four schools plus TCU such geographical and cultural outliers.

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        2. Brian

          So rather than hoping the B12 stays together and sticking it out until the end, they should leave it and go play 1000 miles away for less money? MO has better options if they wait for the breakup as they might get into the SEC or B10. KU will still have value, too. I doubt KSU will voluntarily downgrade and leave KU, and neither will ISU. They are better off sticking it out until the doom of the B12 is certain.

          I can sort of see the logic unless the presidents agree with most people that the B12 probably will stick together once TAMU gets over their temper tantrum. Then they would have given up money and either been replaced by lesser programs or started the dominoes falling for major realignment which could end with them out of an AQ conference again.

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          1. Richard

            I’m almost certain that Mizzou would land somewhere (I’m doubtful about the B10, and maybe not the SEC, but the Pac would take them). Likewise for KU (likely the Pac). However, KSU probably would be out of luck, and ISU definitely would be out of luck if the B12 implodes. A move by those 4 to the BE would be done solely to save KSU and ISU, and while KSU may be able to prod KU in that direction, nobody is going to do anything just to help ISU.

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        3. I expect that once the Big Ten, SEC and Pac-12 pick off members of lower-tier conferences on their way to 16, the remnants of the Big 12 not interested in independence (most likely Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and/or Baylor) will merge with what’s left of the ACC and Big East football members into two separate BCS conferences, one centered on the eastern seaboard, the other the south, midwest and plains states.

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  77. The Big Ten, SEC and Pac-12 are in the strongest positions among BCS conferences — the first two primarily to economics, the third due to geography. On lower rungs are the Big 12 (instability) and ACC (some advantages offset by its lack of a football brand), and at the bottom is the Big East.

    To expand to 16, the Pac-12 has to pick from the Big 12, assuming Boise State, Brigham Young and Texas are not in play. If Notre Dame and Texas are not candidates and the Big Ten wants to expand to 16, the only realistic candidate from the Big 12 is Missouri, the only realistic candidate from the Big East is Rutgers, and the only conference it could take multiple candidates from is the ACC. The SEC has the most flexibility, again assuming Texas is not in the mix. Missouri, Oklahoma, Okie State and Texas A&M are candidates from the Big 12; Virginia Tech, Florida State and to a lesser extent N.C. State and Clemson are potential candidates from the ACC; and West Virginia is the best fit from the Big East.

    Slive and the SEC hold the cards. What the Pac-12 and Big Ten do largely depends upon whether it goes all four from the Big 12, two-and-two from the Big 12 and ACC/WVU or a different direction entirely. No matter what happens, I doubt the Big 12 survives, with Texas either going independent or blending its LHN with the Pac-12 network, and the remnants of the Big 12 (likely Iowa State, Kansas and/or Kansas State and Baylor) merge with what’s left of the ACC (which won’t escape unscathed) and the Big East (which would likely lose Rutgers and WVU at most) into two conferences.

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    1. mushroomgod

      Pitt is a realistic BIG candidate. The next BIG expansion, if there is one, will include some academic punch, as adding NEB and MO would be adding the 2 lowset rated schools academically in the BIG 14/16.

      That being said, the SEC has all the good cards in this game.

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      1. Harf

        The only way the B1G expands in the near future is either if some cash cow (ND or Texas) knocks at the door or the SEC moves on expansion. Pitt would not really fit the profile of what the B1G would be looking for as a college team in a Pro town that is bookended by OSU and PSU in TV markets. Mizzou would likely be off the table as well, any expansion would probably come from the ACC and that is the conference that will be picked apart by the SEC (Clemson and VT) and the B1G (2-3 teams).

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        1. duffman

          Shroom,

          Pitt has been my favorite add from the start, but Frank said no overlap. From an academic side Pitt screams B1G. and they have a long standing history with Notre Dame which could not hurt if the B1G thinks ND will ever join.

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      2. Richard

        “The next BIG expansion, if there is one, will include some academic punch”

        Agreed, which is why I think the move would be to add the blueblood ACC core four.

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  78. Brian

    The NCAA retreat sounds like it may be useful. Ideas gaining momentum today (money was the key topic):

    1. Full cost of attendance scholarship decision can be made at the conference level.
    2. Bring back 4 years scholarships.

    Other ideas with some momentum:
    1. Raise the minimum GPA from 2.0 to 2.5 to combat grade inflation in high schools.
    2. Bring back Prop 48, so borderline kids can practice but not play.
    3. Trim the rulebook but punish violators more harshly.

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    1. Brian

      I like all those ideas, as long as a prop 48 year counts as the redshirt year.

      I would eliminate the 6th year medical exemption, too. You get 5 years to play 4 no matter what. Bad luck is the player’s problem. They still get a free education.

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    2. bullet

      I don’t think Prop 48 does those kids any good. Its merely abuse of the system. If they’re borderline, go to JC. There’s a lot of JC schools in MS, KS and especially CA.

      Almost all Prop 48 students really have no business in a major 4 year university. Those who do belong will best be caught up in a JC.

      Did 4 year scholarships ever exist?

      One of the rules they are looking at changing is eliminating the restriction on texting. There are so many rules violations of that.

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      1. Brian

        If you don’t do Prop 48, then high schools just inflate the grades to keep the athlete eligible. I agree they don’t belong, but that ship sailed a long time ago in D-IA. With all the extra help they can get for free (tutors, etc), they have a decent chance to succeed.

        The key to reducing abuse is to make sure the APR punishes schools for bringing in kids that don’t make it, and tie the APR to serious punishments like bowl ineligibility and scholarship reductions. The 4 year scholarship also fits in here as the ‘ship should be tied up for several more years after the athlete fails.

        And yes, schollies could be 4 years until 1973 when the NCAA banned anything but the 1 year scholarship. Even FB powers gave 4 years scholarships back then, but it wasn’t required as far as I know.

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  79. drwillini

    The Pac 12 has limited options, which made Scott’s attempt last year so impressive. But at the end of the day he wound up with Utah. There are a limited number of geographical canididates that can be considered, and to me most of the mentioned Big12 candidates add more than Utah. If Scott wants to expand it has to be TTech, Kansas, etc. Scott has shown that he can be proactive. These schools were nearly left out it the cold once, they will have to listen to Scott. One thing I have thought about, wouldn’t it help the Pac 12 to have Central time slots. Could give the Pac 12 network natural startimes two hours apart, and east coast exposure they currently lack.

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    1. Bamatab

      In my opinion, if Texas is off of the table for the Pac 12 due to the LHN, then getting OU is a must since there isn’t any other “brand names” west of the Mississippi that are left. And I’m guessing that is the Pac 12 wants OU, they’ll probably have to take Ok St. But I don’t see OU leaving the big 12 (UT to be more percise) until it is 100% apparent that the Big 12 is about to fold. But once that happens, that puts them at 14 teams. If I was Scott, that would be my play and then just wait to see if the LHN actually works out for ESPN and UT. I’m still not sold that the LHN is viable over the long term and will eventually have to be scrapped in its current setup. Then the Pac 12 can offer UT a regional network like the others in the Pac 12 and they can invite Tech if UT still has that same “Tech problem”.

      If the LHN actually does workout over the long haul, then the Pac 12 is very limited at that point. The next best fit from an athletics standpoint (especially in football) would be BYU, but the Pac 12 seems to be unwilling to accept the religious aspects of BYU. So if BYU is off of the table, then their options are limited even more. Tech by themselves doesn’t really add anything since it doesn’t really give them the DFW or Houston markets (plus their academics aren’t very appealing for the Pac 12). So who is next, Kansas? Would Kansas have a “KSU problem”? Would the Pac 12 take KSU?

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      1. mushroomgod

        Adding only OK and OK ST would seem to make sense, BUT——–

        east: OK, OK ST, AZ, ASU, Utah, COL

        west: wash, WSU, Ore, OSU, UCLA, USC, CAL, STAN

        which of those “west” teams are you going to talk into going to the “east” division? Hard sale there…….

        Other than that (big) issue, I really like those divisions………..

        I’m also warming to the idea of the BIG, SEC, and PAC all going to 14, not 16 teams. Less risky, as

        nobody’s really sure if 16 will work. I could see A@M and WVU to the SEC, MO and Pitt/RUT to BIG, OK and OK ST to PAC., then ACC raiding the Big East for 2, and the Big East grabbing Kansas….

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        1. drwillini

          I agree that there are advantages to 14, particularly for B1G where we could do a free-standing
          strategic complmentary expansion and save a spot for a crown jewel and its friend. But you raise
          a great point with the PAC12, and one that could very easily be addressed by taking the four
          most attractive Big12 schools. To me the issue for Scott is what to do about Texas.
          Taking, for example, TTech, Kansas, ISU and Missouri would solve many things, but leave you
          without a chance for the crown jewel.

          The one thing we know for sure in all this. The only thing holding the Big12 together is an
          instiutional Stockholm Syndrome, and the Pac12 has few options to expand w/o including
          Big12 schools.

          I cannot believe if A&M goes SEC, the Pac12 takes a few of the most attractive Big12 schools,
          that Oklahoma will continue to embrace UT. Then you have the scenario with a filled out Pac16
          and Oklahoma and A&M to the SEC (and I think if slive could add just those two he would for at
          least some time period).

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        2. Bamatab

          What about this scenario? What if the Pac 12 decided to expand to 15 teams by adding OU, OK ST, and Tech? That way they could still hold a spot open for Texas in case the LHn doesn’t work out or that being independant won’t work out?

          Then the divisions would look like this:

          East: OU, OKST, Tech, AZ, ASU, Utah, & CO
          West: USC, UCLA, Cal, Stan, Ore, OR ST, Wash, & WSU

          Then if after a couple of years if it appears that Texas isn’t coming, then they can decide on adding a New Mexico or UNLV or whoever. Heck by that time they may be desperate enough to decide they can live with BYU’s religious baggage, which would probably be the best sports option they could get (outside of Texas).

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      2. This is Scott’s quandary. Do you take Oklahoma and Okie State by themselves? Do you add Texas Tech as well, and if so, who goes in at #16? A&M has no interest in the Pac; Texas probably wouldn’t unless the Longhorn Network bombs or agreed to be assimilated into the Pac network. Do you go in a different direction, perhaps wooing Texas Christian, which has played in a western-oriented conference in recent years?

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    2. mushroomgod

      An interesting ? is to what extent geography still matters.

      The longest jog in the BIG is between Minneapolis and Happy Valley. Kansas to the east coast or to the west coast is another 450 miles. MO to the west coast is another 450 miles. If the PAC does go to 16 it will have to act like two seperate leagues in a lot of respects, esp. for the minor sports.

      If the Big East and PAC 16 both wanted Kansas, they’d have a hard decision to make. At heart, it’s a basketball school, and PAC 16 basketball would be pretty blah. Football’s probably a wash, but the PAC’s presumed stability would probably win out.

      I say presumed stability because adding 4 teams from the midwest/southwest would definately change the culture, much like adding BC and Miami to the ACC changed their culture. IMO, that change is still playing itself out………

      I don’t see similiar issues for the BIG going forward…….Adding Pitt or MO would be seamless…..adding Rutgers would be a little bit of a stretch but also would accepted, given that it’s the state school of NJ with 35,000 enrollment………..problem is, of course, that Pitt, Mo, and Rutgers bring far less to the table than did PSU…………….

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      1. bullet

        Deloss Dodds made the same comment about a Pac 16. It would be like two separate leagues because they wouldn’t want all the travel and lost class time. So why do it?

        Pac 12’s best plan for expansion may be to wait 20 years and maybe Idaho, Nevada or New Mexico grow the way Arizona has. Then top off 2 or 3 of those teams with a strengthened TCU and/or Houston from the Big East and maybe Hawaii.

        I just don’t see OU going to the Pac 12 without Texas. I think they would choose the SEC first, and then, only if the Big 12 disentegrates. I think its more likely Arkansas leaves the SEC for the Big 12 (after some years of B12 stability) than for the Big 12 to go away.

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        1. Richard

          “It would be like two separate leagues because they wouldn’t want all the travel and lost class time. So why do it?”

          TV revenue. There’s nothing wrong with essentially 2 separate conferences (the old Pac8 and old Big8+3 teams-3 others) meeting for a championship.

          As for OU & Texas, if the B12 disintegrates and Texas decides to try independence, OU isn’t following them to independence. They’re going to try to get in a conference. Sure, they’d like the SEC, but I don’t think the SEC wants OU if it also means taking OSU (given their many good options). I’m more confident that the Pac would take both (given their lack of options).

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          1. bullet

            But what if you can get the same TV revenue in 2 separate leagues? That was Dodds point. We’re acting like separate leagues, we can get similar money, why do it?

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          2. Richard

            The key is that you can get more interest with one big league than 2 small ones. A USC fan probably wouldn’t care much about a OU-OSU tussle that doesn’t have national implications, but if they’ll face the winner in the league championship next week, you can bet that they’d be watching.

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          4. Brian

            Because you have more markets for your best games, and more top teams to make the best games. 2 separate conferences wouldn’t make as much on their own, and then you have the CCG lost to boot.

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          5. bullet

            But they are making as much as the Pac 12 (or will be presuming they stay together). They may even make more. The talk was that the Pac 12 would be making around $15 million per school, but they obviously did much better than anticipated. Texas will likely makes more with the LHN and the new 1st tier contract in a few years)..

            Big 8 and SWC were different issues. A no population league and a 1 state league.

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          6. Brian

            bullet,

            I think what we’re saying is we don’t believe the schools can make as much separately as in one bigger conference. The real questions are how much more would they make and is it worth it for all the negatives like travel, losing familiar schools and playing schools less often.

            I think they’d make a little more and that it isn’t worth the intangible losses, but that’s just one man’s opinion.

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  80. swesleyh

    I have been consumed with the latest realignment talk. Some things I have discovered to be talked about with the thought that where there is smoke, there may be fire.

    SEC really wants A&M and OU. A&M is their most valuable addition because of the Texas following, the size of the stadium and the support of the fans plus the Texas TV market. A&M is AAU and has a huge endowment and huge research grants also. OU is a national brand and the OU- BAMA, OU-Volunteer, OU-ARKANSAS, OU-LSU, OU-Auburn, etc. would sure draw a national TV audience, much moreso than OU-KSU, OU-Baylor, etc. But while interested, OU is not at the present time able to shed the political shackles of OSU.

    Texas Tech has refused a $5 million contract to play UT on the LHN. Tec is in talks with Larry Scott and the interest is reciprocal.

    The Texas legislature is not in session for several months so athletic political opposition is practically nill. Don’t see a special session called to discuss realignment.

    The UT contract with ESPN is totally geared to taking UT to independent status. There are specific words in the contract that speak to this scenario.

    If Tech goes PAC and UT goes independent and A&M goes SEC, there is very little left to complain about politically anyway. Not even Drayton McClain’s millions will overcome the satisfaction of the other three schools “new digs”.

    OU,
    Re: Chip Brown on Twitter this morning

    After his tweets yesterday about “no truth to the SEC rumors” Chip is now changing his tune. Said he received a call late last night (11:00pm) after his tweets from a very high source at A&M that we would explore all options.

    BOR meeting scheduled August 22 could be explosive and that he now believes A&M is in-fact exploring what A&M in the SEC would look like. Said Loftin is now leading the charge and has a good relationship with Mike Slive.

    A&M will have a new chancellor on August 22nd. A&M lawyers are studying the landscape.

    The time may come for A&M where “Money isn’t everything.” Chip said that was always the question. Would money be enough.

    Said leadership has changed so much the last few years. Robert Gates changed the curriculum at A&M to allow innercity kids a curriculum other than farming. Said McKinney was the tip of the spear last year, and now B. Loftin is.

    Chip said the Regents meeting is a point on the calendar that the Big 12 will be circling.

    Chip said we could be back in the realignment business in the very near future and he appreciates the call late last night from his source setting him straight.

    Chip went on to say that Chris Level from Texas Tech sports came on late yesterday and says Tech is looking at the PAC. Said that Larry Scott discussing a possible regional network in Texas or Oklahoma and trying to lure in some of the Big 12 members. Chip said if the above happened, he believes texas would reevaluate and try to expand the Big 12 by adding nonTexas schools such as Air Force and BYU.

    ——————————————————————————–

    Apparently he went even further on his radio show.
    From Texags

    After his tweets yesterday about “no truth to the SEC rumors” Chip is now changing his tune. Said he received a call late last night (11:00pm) after his tweets from a very high source at A&M that we would explore all options.

    BOR meeting scheduled August 22 could be explosive and that he now believes A&M is in-fact exploring what A&M in the SEC would look like. Said Loftin is now leading the charge and has a good relationship with Mike Slive.

    A&M will have a new chancellor on August 22nd. A&M lawyers are studying the landscape.

    The time may come for A&M where “Money isn’t everything.” Chip said that was always the question. Would money be enough.

    Said leadership has changed so much the last few years. Robert Gates changed the curriculum at A&M to allow innercity kids a curriculum other than farming. Said McKinney was the tip of the spear last year, and now B. Loftin is.

    Chip said the Regents meeting is a point on the calendar that the Big 12 will be circling.

    Chip said we could be back in the realignment business in the very near future and he appreciates the call late last night from his source setting him straight.

    Chip went on to say that Chris Level from Texas Tech sports came on late yesterday and says Tech is looking at the PAC. Said that Larry Scott discussing a possible regional network in Texas or Oklahoma and trying to lure in some of the Big 12 members. Chip said if the above happened, he believes texas would reevaluate and try to expand the Big 12 by adding nonTexas schools such as Air Force and BYU.

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    1. willarm1

      Maybe I’m slow on the uptake here…..but if A&M and or Tech goes anywhere, that starts us down a path of four super conferences doesn’t it? and if that is the direction we are heading, which seems to be true judging by the halves trying to distance themselves from the have-nots, by changing the money that can be given to student athletes. An independent ncaa football team (ND, Texas?) will go the way of the Doo-Doo bird correct? Because those 4 super conferences are going to blow up the BCS, create a true NC with a final four, and have the leverage to tell Texas and their LHN as well as ND to join a conference or the train is leaving without ya…..

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      1. mushroomgod

        Don’t see that happening……..

        If you were the ACC, why would you “force” ND to join the BIG and TX to join the SEC/PAC 16?

        IF SCs happen, I see TX and ND getting the kind of special treatment ND has received under the BCS formula.

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    2. Gumbynuts

      What are the secondary options for A&M other than the SEC? It seems like they want out of the Big-12 more than the SEC really trying to lure them. If the SEC decides they don’t want to expand right now are they really at risk of losing A&M to another conference? It seems to me that unless UT makes a move all the other conferences are content where they are at now.

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      1. Brian

        TAMU’s list is probably:
        1. SEC
        2. B12
        3a. B10
        3b. P12

        I left B10 and P12 tied because there are too many variables like who else comes, and how mad TAMU is at the SEC.

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  81. Mike

    Aggies “Tired”

    http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/college_sports/aggies/article/SEC-SMU-is-on-Aggies-minds-1801936.php


    The official, however, did cite A&M’s general unhappiness with the Big 12 — thanks primarily to the ESPN-owned Longhorn Network of rival Texas — and stayed mum on whether a shift to the SEC might occur at some point. Another A&M official recently described the Aggies and other Big 12 members as simply being “tired of Texas,” primarily the Longhorn Network’s pushing of airing key high school games

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  82. swesleyh

    latest information copied and pasted below Lucci is Billy Lucci from the Tex Ags.com and John Lopez is a columnist from the Houston Chronicle.

    : Is there a BOR meeting on August 22?

    ——————————————————————————–

    So Liucci and John Lopez were on 1560 and 610 in Houston this morning, respectively, and both were adamate that A&M would absolutely be in the SEC no later than 2013, and possibly 2012, and tha tthe next 2 weeks could see some fireworks. Pretty wild that both went all in so publicly.

    Liucci’s comments intrigue me for no other reason than I believe he is as close to an Aggie version of Chip Brown that we have. If he’s putting that out there publicly, then it’s my personal opinion that he is being told to do so.

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    1. bullet

      Lopez is worthless. Anything he says is meaningless. Note that he’s also an Aggie.

      Lucci may or may not know something. The fact that Lopez and anyone else says anything doesn’t make it any more likely to be true than if just the other person said it.

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  83. Penn State Danny

    Would L. Scott think it is worth it to pursue Oklahoma,OK St., Kansas and Kansas St.?

    Travel partners and a natural division split are the positives. Oklahoma adds to football. Kansas adds to basketball. Stability for all 16 teams and it may force the hands of the other big 2 conferences.

    Interesting stuff…as always.

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    1. Mike

      If I was at an Arizona school I would hate that. They get less access to California without gaining access to Texas.

      I have a tough time making a legit PAC 16 work financially without Texas or Texas A&M. Once the PAC12 networks get profitable, it gets really hard without both.

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        1. Mike

          Right, and the more money it makes, the harder it gets to add schools who just don’t add a lot financially. Kansas State may be a great school, but it isn’t worth $20MM in TV money.

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          1. ccrider55

            I understand and agree. I was simply pointing out that there is no “Once the P12 networks get profitable…” to wait for. Scott said a few monthe ago, regarding revenue from the P12N, that he won’t run from it, but that isn’t the primary concern.

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          3. ccrider55

            The only thing I saw regarding that was a couple AD’s comments a few days following the signing of the primary contract. They were still digesting the magnitude of that improvement and were not focused on the P12N. No one had any idea what form, media, partners, requirements, startup costs, etc.would be. They simply said they had no expectaton of additional revenue in the near term, and they weren’t worried about that. But as I said that was a couple months ago.

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    2. mushroomgod

      I think he’s right.

      I’m a Pitt advocate (better school and athletic tradition), but given that the whole idea of expanding is for the BTN, Rutgers seems like a no brainer. Also, it’s the flagship state school and has 36000 enrollment (on NB campsu) v. 28,000 at Pitt.

      16 would be reserved for Pitt and ND, IMO, unless Pitt is in ACC by then.

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          1. mushroomgod

            14, not 12……

            BT “loses” that round, obviously….but nothing you can do about it………

            Some pros and cons of MO/PITTRUT

            MO pros–flagship school for state with 5M population; solid fball and bball programs; decent fan base; large campus with 32000 students; geographic fit with instant rivals; cultural fit; is AAU school

            MO cons–mediocre history of NC in major or minor sports-2 I believe (although overall program is now top 30 or so); would be 2nd lowest rated school academically (94th in US News), with relatively low R@D, endowment;

            Rutgers pros-large(36000) state-funded public flagship school; 64th rated US news academically; NJ/NY market; strong NJ recruiting base for football; recently rennovated stadium that can be expanded; AAU school

            Rutgers cons–no history of athletic success; would be worst overall ranked ath. dept (along with Pitt); bball suck, both in facilities and interest; school has been poorly run, with ath dept subsidized something like 60M over last 10 yrs (same as MD)

            PITT pros-Best academic school…64th ranked but with 2B$ endowment and tons of R@D $; like MO, has med. school, but ms is much higher regarded; great fball tradition; fertile PA football recruiting grounds; good basketball; PSU rivalry; AAU school

            PITT cons–smaller enrollment (28000); not “the” state school as in case of Rut, MO; questionable fan base, with pro competition; very small urban campus–132 acres; off-campus bball and football

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    3. Gopher86

      Ever since the divisions have come out, I thought that the Big 10 tipped their hand a bit. Wisconsin fits in the ‘West’ bettter than the ‘East’ from a rivalry/geography standpoint, but was placed there due to competitive balance. Adding two East Coast teams would make the divisions more logical, because Wiscy could move over. The problem is, the added teams needs to be as good as Wisconsin to maintain competitive balance.

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      1. Brian

        I think fans always try to read more into it than is there, especially since we were busy discussing super conferences. The only team that obviously fits your description is ND.

        I think they worked with what they had to make divisions. Further expansion is not so certain that they would sacrifice the near term future of the B10 just in case it happens.

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      2. mushroomgod

        Maybe, but if you add Rutgers to the east and MO to the west you haven’t shaken anything up, nor have you changed the balance of power…….SO, you COULD say that they picked these divisions with the possibility of adding Rut and MO in mind…………

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  85. duffman

    If you really believe it will b 4 “super conferences” there is only one way for the ACC to survive, and that is to add UT and ND!

    ACC adds 4 = UT + ND + ?? + ??
    B1G adds 4 = Pitt + ?? + ?? + ??
    PAC adds 4 = OU + oSu + Kansas + Missouri
    SEC adds 4 = TAMU + ?? + ?? + ??

    here is my logic for such a thing happening

    #1 Brand balance:

    B1G = 40%
    Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Penn State
    ACC = 20%
    Texas, Notre Dame
    PAC = 20%
    Southern Cal, Oklahoma
    SEC = 20%
    Alabama, + floater

    This division is the only combination I can derive that creates 4 equals instead of 3 power and 1 laggard. Unless the ACC could land UT and ND it will always be the prey to the other 3

    #2 media balance:

    FOX = B1G
    ESPN = SEC
    FOX + ESPN = PAC
    ACC = ESPN or ESPN / FOX – with FOX having the minority position

    3# Goodbye BCS, hello playoff:

    8 team divisions means the CCG is the defacto 1st round of the playoff, and the CCG winner from each meets in the following bowl setup;

    PAC meets B1G in Rose
    SEC meets ACC in Sugar

    Sugar winner meets Rose winner in Championship game in Cotton – AKA JerryWorld

    #4 top bowls are protected

    Orange gets ACC #2 + ??
    Fiesta gets PAC #2 + ??
    ?? gets B1G #2 + ??
    ?? sets SEC #2 + ??

    #5 non AQ’s have to “earn” a spot

    The “scraps” reform as 2 twelve+ team conferences who must play each other for a right to “play in” should one of the 4 CCG winners fall below the other 3. As an example ==>

    SEC CCG winner has 2 losses
    B1G CCG winner has 2 losses
    PAC CCG winner has 1 loss
    ACC CCG winner has 3 losses

    “play in” winner has only one loss after “play in game(s), so it replaces ACC winner in Sugar Bowl for shot at National Championship. This way Boise State would still have a shot at the NC, but they would have to earn it by playing an extra game or two against tougher opponents.

    #6 protects “dilution” by preventing a 16 team playoff, and keeping value of regular season games.

    The biggest issue with the NCAA tourney is the waste of meaningless games on 13 – 16 seeds who may upset 1 team, but can not win the entire tourney. I may be old school, but in basketball, if you can not win your regular season conference, you should not be slotted in the tourney just by winning the post season. I would much rather see a round robin for the top 16 teams like the CWS, than see Duke or UNC blowout the NWSE Idaho school for the bind.

    ps, not saying any of this will happen, but more of how to you balance the 4 “super conferences”

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    1. mushroomgod

      ACC isn’t as bad as it’s looked the last 5-6 years……

      FSU and Miami have been down, but there’s no reason to expect them (esp FSU) to continue to be down.
      Clemson’s probably a top 15 football school…Va Tech’s a top 20 football school….NC, NC ST, and MD all have more potential than IU, PUR, MINN, or NW.
      BC is always solid, as is GT.
      Yes, Wake and Duke suck, and always will. So do Vandy and NW.

      So the rumors of the ACC’s death have been greatly exaggerated………

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    2. willarm1

      Nice post. I believe if we go to 4 super conferences, the others are not invited. This forces ND and UT (if they decide to go independent) to choose a conference or be left out like the others. UT will likely be back where they started tied to the other 3 Texas schools (because of politics) looking for a home, and scrapping the LHN investment because the 4 supers will not let them bring it with them imo.

      UT and ND for that matter will likely try its best to stop any foray toward 4 super conferences because that means the end of the BCS and Texas and ND’s road to an NC as an BCS independent, since they will be obsolete under the new system (if it occurs) that will leave the BCS impotent along with their sweetheart rules for the independents.

      The Supers imo will then leverage their power on their own creating a BCS less system that crowns a champ every year with a simple final four after the league champs are decided.

      I would sign on the dotted line today if this was the case.

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    4. Please explain to me why Notre Dame and Texas would agree to join the ACC. True, they would instantly give that conference a football brand, and academically it may have the best profile of any BCS conference other than the Big Ten, but I don’t see anything else that would entice them.

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      1. ccrider55

        I understand that, but it is no longer limited to fan blogs with unknown “sources”. Some had objected that major sports sites were not reporting anything. Nothing new for sure, except for the forum used.

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    2. Brian

      She ignores/avoids the whole political angle, though. If someone could tell us that TX politics were not a factor, many of us would have a different view of the future. Until someone in the know tells me for sure that the legislature will stay out of this, though, I don’t see where anything else matters. The state controls much more money for TAMU than the AD does.

      If the TX politicians are not an issue:
      1. TAMU will leave
      2. UT might go independent (esp. if OU also goes SEC), or UT might go P12 if OU goes P12
      3. TT is probably screwed
      4. Baylor is screwed, as is ISU
      5. The SEC might attack the ACC
      6. The B10 probably has to respond (offer UT, maybe MO if the SEC asks them, maybe attack BE or ACC)
      7. If the P12 can’t get a king, they might stay idle for now.

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  87. duffman

    Feinbaum is interviewing TAMU guy right now about there may be fire in this smoke

    + DFW market may be worth hassle of 13th team for a year or two
    + Announcement may come soon, but not as easy as CU or UNL
    + Regents meeting called for Aug 22nd, TAMU to SEC could be on table in that meeting

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    2. cutter

      I heard that inteview as well. The TAMU blogger he spoke with said that the 14th team would come from the east, i.e., the ACC. There was no indication which team it would be, but the programs that come immediately to mind to me would be Florida State, Viirginia Tech and Clemson.

      From what I took from the interview, the Longhorn Network seems to be the catalyst for what is essentially a no-confidence vote on Big XII Commissioner Dan Beebe’s leadership and the future of the conference. Joining the SEC would be a proactive step for Texas A&M, which has a reputation for being reactive when it comes to these sorts of decisions. Simply put, it sounds like ATM is sick and tired of the Big XII/Texas and is equally hellbent to join the SEC.

      If this does come to pass, then the ACC is down to eleven members and most probably is looking at adding at least one more program to get back to 12. Back in 2003, Syracuse was on the original list with Boston College and Miami-Florida. Because of actions by the Virginia legislature, Va Tech was put in place of Syracuse. I have no idea if the ACC would reach out to Syracuse again (or UConn or Pitt or some other Big East school), but I have to imagine there’ll be more ripples in the conference expansion pond.

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      1. duffman

        cutter,

        you are missing the bigger picture!

        If we break 12, and the ACC can not land UT / ND, then the ACC as you know it today will be no more. We are at DEFCON 1, and the Big 3 will be the winners!

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        1. Eric

          I disagree duffman. Adding Texas A&M is probably only going to push the SEC to 14 not 16 in my opinion. 16 is more risky as that’s 4 new members who have to pay for themselves without diluting everyone else’s value (too many powers and some are going to weaken each other with time) and with the last 2 NOT having the added benefit of letting the contract be rewritten (if it can be done, it will already be done for 13 and 14).

          From there, there is no indication that the Big Ten wants to expand (the divisions are based on competitive balance long term) and no guarantee the PAC-12 can grab the schools it needs to in order to make 16 (or even 14) work.

          My guess is that if the SEC expands, it’s the only conference that goes beyond 12 teams for at least a couple years.

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          1. Richard

            Well, Delany is rumored to covet UNC & Duke. If the SEC takes one of the ACC powers (VTech or FSU, IMHO), those 2 and whoever can escape with them (likely UVa & Maryland) will notice that their football brand is seriously weakened and that they’d be making less than half of what the B10 schools make after the B10 sells first and second tier rights mid-decade. They’ll also have to consider that after one raid, there will likely be more, so UVa, Maryland, & Duke (especially) may seriously consider their options outside the ACC as they surely don’t want to be in the same position as KU/KSU/ISU would be in if the B12 implodes..

            The ACC is like a dike made of cinderblocks: so long as all remain in place, the dike can keep out the flood, but remove one cinderblock, and the whole thing would get overwhelmed.

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          2. mushroomgod

            I disagree with both duff and eric…

            First, I really doubt any ACC team would leave for the ACC. I would think the academic types would stop such a move.

            IF one did, the ACC would grab Syracuse, Rutgers, and Pitt to get to 14, unless the BIG intervened with an offer to Rutgers or Pitt. If that happened, the ACC would pick up U Conn.

            I disagree with Eric, in that I think the BIG WOULD react if the SEC went to 14, by adding MO and Pitt/Rutgers.

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        2. Rich2

          Whenever conference realignment chatter heats up, I am compelled to return to this site. I think the thread misses the mark on most issues but not on conference realignment.

          Last year, I hope that I was part of a poster group that tried to convinc this board that ND alums do not want to join a conference unless there is absolutely no alternative.

          If the Big 12 breaks, and ND must pick a conference, it will replace VT in the ACC. The ethos of the top ACC schools is undergraduate education — as is the ethos of ND. The top schools of the ACC are “better” at undergraduate education than the Big 10 — Duke matches Northwestern and there is not counterpart to UNC (or even WF) at the undergraduate level in the Big 10. Period.

          The ACC is an excellent fit academically and culturally and it is a step up from the BE for the rest of our athletic programs. In our traditionally best athletic programs, soccer and lacrosse, the ACC are our best rivals already. Woman’s BB will fit nicely in the ACC. Hockey will find a league.

          And as I tried to explain last year, when you have the third greatest per student endowment in the US behind Harvard and Princeton (with a bullet — each alumni cohort earns more and has contributed more to ND for the past 40 years ), 5million per year in TV contracts mean — absolutely nothing.

          I am confident that we will become the “replacement cinderblock” for the ACC — if there is no other possible option to remaining independent in football. I already have my tickets this year for MD, BC and WF. Miami, FSU, UNC, GT and NCSU to follow. Take care.

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          1. Richard

            Rich,

            If a block is taken out of the ACC, I see them breaking, because the ACC will always be liable to the threat of a raid by the SEC. The four core ACC schools (UNC, Duke, UVa, & Maryland) are also top research institutions and will see value in the CIC.
            I’m also not sure
            1. ND wants so many conference games.
            2. Schools that have a choice would stay in an inherently unstable conference when the B10 or SEC is open to them.

            See my post below (reposted) of what I think break out:

            “Hmm. TAMU, FSU, VTech, & Clemson to the SEC, UNC, Duke, UVa & Maryland to the B10.

            NCSU, BC, WFU, GTech, Miami + ND in Super East
            Texas, Baylor, OU, OkSt., ISU + BYU in Super West

            Super Conference only has to play the 5 intradivisional games as part of a conference slate (though everyone except ND and maybe Texas also schedules interdivisional games).
            ND would have their schedule set virtually every year, with 5 conference games + 3 B10 rivalry games (maybe rotating so it’s only 2 a year) + Navy + USC + probably Stanford = 10-11 games.

            TTech, Mizzou, KU, & KSU escape to the Pac.

            4 superconferences (3 traditional ones of 16, and the new one of 12).”

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          2. Ross

            Too lazy to match all the school rankings but uh…Michigan is rated higher than UNC for undergraduate programs, and is certainly on par with UNC at the very least.

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          3. Brian

            USNWR rankings:
            9 Duke
            12 NW
            25 VA
            25 WF
            29 MI
            30 NC
            31 BC
            35 GT
            45 WI
            47 PSU
            47 IL
            47 Miami
            56 OSU
            56 Purdue
            56 MD
            64 MN
            64 Clemson
            69 VT
            72 IA
            75 IN
            79 MSU
            104 FSU
            104 NE
            111 NCSU

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      2. Brian

        I think some of the lack of confidence in Beebe is deserved. Why didn’t they have rules and/or TV deals in place to stop someone from getting rights to B12 home FB games for a private network? LHN should have to pay a sizable fee to the other school (and/or provide free local broadcast in the home area) and to the B12 itself to get those rights.

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        1. greg

          So we hear a lot about SEC teams having rights to a game a year. Is there a SEC bylaw to prevent them from acquiring a conference game? Or do they just depend on the demand for inventory to prevent that from happening?

          B12 ADs work with Beebe, not for him. If they want to prevent conference games on a private network, they need to work together to get it to happen.

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          1. Brian

            I don’t know about the SEC. I’m guessing demand makes it a moot point but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that Slive has prepared for the eventuality.

            I think the circumstances of the LHN make it a little different deal from the SEC situation, with the ESPN tie in, UT running HS sports and the Longhorn branding.

            I wasn’t talking about the B12 AD’s lacking confidence, but more the fans. The commissioner is paid to think ahead and help the schools avoid these issues. That’s why Beebe makes so much money. The rest of his job isn’t that complicated.

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      3. dchorn

        Interesting timing…Doesn’t the Longhorn Network air for the first time three days later….Welcome to the Cuban Missle crisis……Interesting to see who blinks first….

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        1. cutter

          The Longhorn Network is supposed to premiere on August 26th. It could be one of the more interesting network launches in the history of television if all this takes place.

          In reply to duffman, I can’t imagine the ACC imploding upon itself if the lose one member. Florida State would clearly be a big loss, but is it likely FSU would go to the SEC? I seem to recall that Florida State turned down the SEC 20 years ago and if you’re FSU, you have to ask yourself if your athletic programs are better positioned in the ACC or the SEC. Let’s be frank–it’d be easier for Florida State to go undefeated in football in the ACC than the SEC in order to get to the BCS championship game.

          Virginia Tech would be a possibility, but would we have a replay of 2003 when the state legislature flexed its muscle in order to get them into the ACC with Virginia. Would VaTech be able to get support out of Richmond to move to the SEC and leave UVa in the ACC?

          Clemson seems to me to be the smallest loss amongst the three I mentioned and I think it’d be a “fair trade” if Clemson left the SEC and a program like Syracuse or Pittsburgh or Connecticut took their place.

          Interesting caller into the Finnebaum show right now. He says FSU and VaTech are off the table and there are five other possible programs under consideration. I suppose it could be another program in the SEC or perhaps a Big XII program. Larry Scott from Pac 12 is now on program. Stand by.

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          1. duffman

            cutter,

            it is not that the SEC takes 1, but that it is followed by the B1G taking 1, then the SEC takes another, and so on. The first one is not the issue, it is the steam roller that follows. First it was Missouri, then UNL got taken, then CU and the B12 has been bailing water ever since. Same would happen in the ACC, but as their schools are worth more than say Iowa State or Baylor, the pressure will be greater.

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          2. bullet

            FSU AD was commenting how glad they were not to be in the SEC after the Cam Newton fiasco.

            FSU, Miami and GT all could be in the SEC now if they wanted. The 1st two turned them down, forcing the SEC to settle on S. Carolina. GT left. I can’t see how VT wants to leave the ACC it worked so hard to get into. ACC is much more desirable (except for current money) than the SEC. As Frank says, think like a college president. Clemson is the only ACC school that has a reasonable possibility of saying yes to SEC and I’m not sure they would. Most likely, the SEC would have to settle, WVU perhaps or USF if the west teams wanted more Florida access.

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          3. Richard

            You’re probably right when you’re talking about the ACC as it is now, but the ACC where key chunks start leaving is a heck of a lot less desirable to stay in. As I said before, the ACC is like a dike holding back a rising river, but remove one block, and the dike likely collapses.

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          1. ccrider55

            Probably true, though I do remember someone posting TV marketing numbers (Neb the top) and newspaper numbers (MO and KU both over Neb) for the KC area.

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          2. Logan

            Living in Kansas City, I can tell you that Nebraska is a distant 4th in terms of TV, radio, and newspaper coverage behind KU, MU and K-State. And most of that coverage is related to the fact that they are in the same conference as the local 3, it will be interesting to see how that changes in the upcoming year.

            And I’m very skeptical of any TV ratings numbers for Nebraska. If those are from ’09, they I would think they are likely inflated from the Big 12 Championship game, which had tremendous local interest, not because of the Huskers, but because KC is a Big 12 city and the game had national championship implications. In addition, if Nebraska had good TV ratings in KC for their games against KU, MU and K-State, is that because Kansas Citians are interested in Nebraska, or because they are interested in their local teams?

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  88. duffman

    Some upcoming dates of interest for realignment:

    #1 = This weekend
    Rick Perry has added South Carolina to his weekend. Announcing a new SEC add in the last state added to the SEC would be a bold statement.

    #2 = Aug 22nd
    TAMU BoR has called a meeting on that date, rumor is SEC might be on table

    #3 = ??
    NCAA meets to hand down ruling on LHN broadcasting HS FB games

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    1. Eric

      I’m finally on board that I think they are going to try this (should have gone with my instincts instead of my head when I started reading this stuff 2 days ago), but I think it’s going to be much smaller realignment that most on here are guessing.

      My prediction is the following:

      Texas A&M decides it’s going to try for the SEC and the SEC is willing to take them (I doubted this severely before, but I think the rumblings have are large enough that there must be some way for this to work out contract wise). If they get out without state of Texas interference (questionable), then I guess the SEC will invite them for the 2013 season (2012 only if they can plan on paying off the Big 12 a lot extra).

      The SEC will look east for a member and try for either Florida State or Virginia Tech. Florida State is more likely. If they can’t get either then, West Virginia or North Carolina State move up the list.

      Likely replacing a member, the ACC invites one of the northeast Big East members likely Pitt or Syracuse, but UConn or Rutgers are possible.

      The Big 12 decides to add BYU to stay at 10 (and staying at 9 wouldn’t shock me).

      Everyone else stays pat where they are at.

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      1. schwarm

        I think WVU is more likely than other choices – decent football school and not tied to any other schools by state politics. Academically OK but not great, and would they are likely bypassed by other big conferences.

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        1. mushroomgod

          Did this guy just say he doesn’t know anything more about the situation than you or I? And he wants to be President? He’ll fit right in……

          Duffster, I still want to e-mail you my all-time B10 bball and football player rankings….I think you’ll be quite interested……….

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    1. mushroomgod

      There’s something quite innate to human nature that we like to see things blow all to hell……..

      And this has the advantage of not involving any actual carnage…..

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  91. BigFunny

    As I told you the night you posted this blog entry Frank, your Texas source were leading you down the wrong path. A&M will leave the Big12 soon…as in the next two weeks.

    This blog story and your other entry regarding A&M have both been wildly incorrect.

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    1. Brian

      Can you please explain to us why the legislature will not block this when they stuck their collective nose in so deeply before? Do you expect them to not punish TAMU on the back end, either?

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      1. duffman

        brian,

        HS football in texas is like HS basketball in IN or KY. I think this LHN HS football thing was like burning a church down there. Just stirred the nest for all the Texas schools, which united will want UT to atone for their transgression. Just a guess.

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        1. Brian

          I’m just curious because last year everyone from TX (the state, not the school) said that nobody from TX could leave because the politics wouldn’t allow it. I’m just wondering what if anything has changed that. Are Baylor and TT alums not worried about the end result anymore?

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          1. As BCS members, the bottom members of the Big 12 (Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State and Kansas) are on the same level as Big East members, with comparable attendance and fan support. They’ll land on their feet, probably in some sort of league with remnants from the ACC and/or Big East.

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          2. Bamatab

            The Texas state legislature doesn’t meet again until something crazy like 2013. I don’t understand how that works, but apparently they only meet every 2 years. So if they jump now they can bypass them unless a special meeting is called.

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          3. bullet

            The legislature wouldn’t be able to legally stop A&M from moving (theoretically they could, but it would be very difficult), but there’s a lot they can do to make it very painful. Legislators don’t disappear for two years. They’re still around.

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      2. mwp

        Look at the other side of this: aTm and Tech seem to be in accord in their agitation with UT and the LHN. Texas seems to be content with the independent route, and Tech will likely land safely once the dust settles. Baylor is the only school that stands to lose big, while other Texas schools like TCU or Houston may be big winners.

        And most importantly, what politician wants to get in the middle of such a polarizing, athletic debate? At this point, if Texas politics got in the way they would be alienating the entire Aggie base. If they don´t do anything, and Baylor loses, who will Baylor blame? The Aggies. Or maybe the Longhorns. But it won´t be the politicians, and besides, it´s only Baylor. And the legislature is out of session right now.

        That makes the politics essentially a non-issue this go-around.

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      3. Eric

        If they don’t I think an overestimation of the past and the unity within the Aggie community are the much bigger issues than anything perceived to be done by the Longhorns. It’s been assumed that Baylor was an issue last year and I believe Larry Scott made a statement of that sort. Still, it’s possible they were used there more as an excuse. We don’t really have any concrete knowledge of any actions to prove the legislature was going to do anything last year. It’s possible, the dissolution of the Southwestern Conference was a special case and that type of scenario isn’t being recreated here or last year.

        This is also a more determined group than in the past. With the SWC breaking up, Texas and A&M may have wanted to go elsewhere, but their fans probably liked staying with some old conference brethren or at least were more divided.

        Now Aggies fans are like Nebraska fans last year and want to get away from Texas (for what I still see as exaggerated claims to say the least, but that’s a different discussion) in almost a unified fashion. This makes opposing a move much harder.

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        2. frug

          The Baylor thing was just an excuse Scott cooked up to have to avoid admitting UT played him like a Stradivarius during the realignment negotiations. Back in the ’90’s Baylor had the the governor and LG protecting them, not now.

          That said, the PAC-1X does require unanimous consent for expansion and I have a feeling Baylor would have been vetoed.

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      4. frug

        To begin with, the Texas State Legislature is out of session until 2013 and can only be called back into session by the Governor, who probably wouldn’t do so given that A) he’s an Aggie and B) he will probably be busy running for President.

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        1. Brian

          See, it wasn’t that hard of a question. I just didn’t know the answer seeing as how I’m not a Texan.

          Now as for part 2, how likely is the future legislature to punish a school it views as causing the problem? Are they that petty, and do the right groups have enough power to do it?

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      5. Frank the Ag

        The Texas legislature didn’t block A&M’s move last summer. A&M pulled back after meeting with Texas. Just like Texas pulled out of the Pac-16 agreement. Texas wanted their network and A&M wanted more time to consider their options. This blog has continually overstated the Texas legislature’s role.

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        2. bullet

          Nothing happened, so they didn’t need to do anything. Now I agree with you that Baylor sympathizers would not have been able to do much other than stir the pot and hold hearings. But if (and that is “if”) Tech, Baylor and Texas sympathizers in the legislature are unhappy with the move, A&M would be unwise to do it.

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      6. Aggie in Fort Worth

        The Texas Legislature meets once every two years, and it has just fiinished the special session just a couple of months ago. The next time the legislative guys meet, unless Governor Perry calls another special session, will be January 2013.

        With Perry starting up his POTUS campaign, the call for a special session isn’t going to happen unless there is some other way in the rules for the others to call a special session. Chip Brown is now “reporting” that there are some legislative folks getting their dander up, but the problem is to what happens to Baylor and not Texas or Texas Tech.

        The only way the legislative branck to punish Texas A&M is with the Permenant University Funds — but it may be too little, too late if A&M were to get its paperwork to start SEC play in the fall of 2012.

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        1. Brian

          But if the PUF threat is real, isn’t that a lot more important to TAMU than joining the SEC? That’s why I was wondering why everyone seems convinced the politicians will stay out of it this time. What state school can afford to get their funding cut?

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    1. mwp

      I agree, Duffman. If the ACC were to lose Virginia Tech, they´d be in trouble.

      In that scenario, the Big 10 would go hard at UVa, Maryland, Duke and UNC. If the Big 10 takes any or all of those schools, it´s tough to picture the ACC surviving. The best guess is some form of East Coast, ACC/Big East hybrid.

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      1. Eric

        I disagree. I think the Big Ten is extremely unlikely to go for 16 right now. There is too much integration already happening to invite 5 more before 1 has even started play and the divisions and CCG have yet to be used.

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      2. duffman

        mwp,

        I think it goes in parts…

        SEC bites VT
        B1G bites MD (as the northern border)

        after that each picks for the low hanging fruit

        I think if the SEC went for 3 right away, or the B1G did, ESPN (who would be the net loser) would step in. Every school that goes to the B1G is a loss of market share for ESPN.

        I can see UVA and Duke in the B1G
        I can see NCST in the SEC

        UNC is the one I am not sure where it would land. Duke is a northern school in a southern state, but UNC is a southern school in a southern state.

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        1. mwp

          Duffman, You´re probably right with Maryland. I think that´s the first move, and you wait and see where the dominoes fall — and how quickly. Remember, Maryland´s athletic department is covered in red ink, as alumni donations have dried up. It´s all about timing, and realignment and the BTN are showing up right when Maryland needs them.

          And Eric, as we´re seeing with the SEC (and to go against what I just said about Maryland), timing isn´t everything. When a knockout blonde knocks on your door, it´s tough to say no. Slive and the rest of the SEC are willing to swallow the short-term cost in anticipation of the long term gain.

          I think it´d be a similar story with the Big 10. Sure it would be nice to take this thing in parts but when you do that, sometimes you end up with it all at once.

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          1. Eric

            But is Maryland really going to make the Big Ten more profitable long term? I’m not disputing that if Texas or Notre Dame came knocking the Big Ten would add them in a heart beat. Maryland will be there for the taking 5 years from now though as will just about any other candidates not named Texas or Notre Dame. Remember if they don’t add twenty something million dollars to the contract they are a drain not an advantage and the presidents are going to want more than break even to justify the trouble (and no CCG to add this time).

            Let’s put this another way. Let’s look at the risk/reward. The conference is now strong and stable and with good money. They can jump up to 14 or 16 now because the SEC does. It might mean more money, but existing contracts probably limit that to at least an extent. It will definitely mean more mouths to feed though. If the invited teams are good (the ones most likely to bring in large amount of dollars), we have to expect the middle tier teams (and even the top teams) to lose some status over the coming decade(s) too and that needs to be factored in. Beyond all that, stability is at risk with expansion. Let’s say these superconferences don’t work out. We have pretty good data that 12 works fine, but 16 hasn’t been tried with big conferences (in football) and has failed the one time it was tried with a minor conference. If 16 turns out to not be a good number or if the teams chosen don’t turn out to be a good fit, you risk the very stability of the conference. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that we see the major conferences split in 15 years because they expanded too much now and then we lose a lot of tradition.

            The safest move in my opinion (with a most only a little downside) is to let the SEC try 14 or 16 first. Look at how well it works or doesn’t work for them. If it works, then 5 years from now when the conference is renegotiating (if we make that far given the economy), they can invite new members and do it then.

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          2. Richard

            5 years from now, UNC may not be available. They’re the key to bringing in the ACC core four. Without them, it doesn’t make sense. You strike when the iron is hot, you commit reserves forward when the enemy line is breached. You don’t wait and see if the enemy lines can reform before deciding on your next move.

            That’s also why I don’t believe an incremental approach works best. You don’t take Maryland and then wait and see. You take all 4 at once, as they’d all be willing to move if their neighbors move with them.

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          3. Brian

            Eric,

            http://www.hawkeyenation.com/football/dollars-and-sense-of-big-ten-expansion

            TV households:
            MD 3.6M
            Rutgers 3.1M (just Cablevision, could be a lot more)
            Syracuse 2.4M
            MO 2.2M
            Pitt 1.6M (which the B10 already has)

            MD with 83.3% BTN penetration (to be conservative) = 3M subscribers. At $0.67 per month, that’s $2M per month in fees, or $24M per year. Then add any fees from DC/Northern VA, extra advertising, etc.

            MO at 91% penetration becomes 2M subscribers or $1.4M per month ($0.70 per month) for $16.8M compared to the $220k or so the BTN gets now. MO also brings rivalries with several schools and finishes the SW border of the B10 versus the SEC.

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          4. frug

            I doubt the Big 10 would ever take 4 ACC schools since they will always leave an open slot for Notre Dame.

            That said, if the conference had to expand without ND or UT I think take the ACC raid would be the best option.

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      3. Much of this will be based on timing. Idealistically, if the Big Ten was going to take four from the ACC to go to 16, Delany would prefer the quartet of Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and Duke. But if N.C. State isn’t part of the SEC mix, North Carolina politicians will pressure the Big Ten to have State replace Duke in such a package And UNC’s value is such that Delany would probably (grudgingly) agree to take in NCSU (which does have some value) as a substitute, especially since Duke would have no interest in the SEC (and vice versa).

        But what if the Big Ten decides to make Maryland, for now, its sole addition from the ACC and goes to another conference for its 14th member, who gets the nod? Rutgers complements Maryland (and Penn State) in securing the eastern seaboard. OTOH, adding Rutgers (or Pittsburgh, or Missouri) means that if the Big Ten ultimately goes to 16, UNC goes in by itself alongside UVa. Chapel Hill might like that exclusivity, but unless NCSU was taken care of somewhere (and “somewhere” probably means “SEC”), N.C. pols might not be pleased.

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        1. Eric, the University of Maryland’s close ties to the Washington, D.C. area would probably help the Big Ten’s research capacity, and that means plenty of dollars, even with federal cutbacks. There are loads of Big Ten alums in metro D.C. as well; it’s a very affluent market.

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          1. Eric

            Maybe true, but we saw in the last round that athletics not academics is fueling expansion. Athletics prevents some teams from going places and incentives to accept bids, but I think expansion is based on increasing the athletic department revenue. Academic revenue probably isn’t really being shared as much (no TV contracts, they are still funding themselves, it’s just joint projects).

            Another point I think warrants bringing attention to was the constant reframe from Delaney that the Big Ten wanted to play more not less of each other. Adding 9 games was because of that. Going to 16 and essentially having 2 separate conferences within one each year is the exact opposite of that goal.

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        2. frug

          UNC and NC State share a board of regents (they are part of the same school system) so there is really no way to split them up without both schools signing off on the move. I also can’t see UNC ever splitting up with Duke.

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          1. Richard

            That very well may happen if NCSU still ends up in a BCS conference that includes ND & Miami in it’s division and Texas & OU in the other division (see my post below).

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          2. frug

            I agree it is certainly possible (though the more likely scenario would be NC State going to the SEC). I was just reinforcing the point that both schools hold veto over any separation.

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  93. Eric

    I’ll argue superconferences, if they com about, will be very bad for the financial health of the college football long term. One of the things the current set-up has produced which is quite unique to the sport is conference loyalty. No one has any loyalty for being in the East or West in the NBA or there really isn’t even that much for American League and National League in baseball where there is long history (certainly no one rooting for their league in interleauge play).

    Conference loyalty in football has been driven by having so many conference and by their status directly effecting your team (in ranking and national champion hopes). Consolidating the conferences is going to reduce that loyalty and thus how much people care about how their conference mates do out of conference and in bowls.

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    1. Brian

      I’d argue that the superconferences will do well financially, but it will be bad for the fans. They’ll lose that sense of camaraderie they have now as they play each other less and less. Basically your division will become your conference, so a lot of old rivalries will die. Fans will still have a BCS to deal with, at least for a while, since the money will be fine without a playoff.

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        1. Brian

          I’m anti-expansion and anti-playoff, so I’m on your side. The traditions and hokeyness is part of what makes college football so great. I like silly trophies and marching bands and 80 year old alumni rooting for the home team with their grandkids in replica jerseys and cheerleader outfits. If all you want is football and money, watch the NFL.

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          1. Eric

            I agree completely Brian. I think these are intangibles that attract people to the game, but which they don’t realize they are giving up if we move toward a larger playoff (the only big focus in most sports in the whole championship, not the case at all in college football). I think those losses would show up in the balance sheet too though within a decade.

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  96. Nostradamus

    What does A&M actually add for the SEC other than a place for the existing schools to try and pillage recruits from? I keep seeing delusional Aggie fans and others talking about how Texas has 25 million people… So what?

    The population base doesn’t matter unless we are talking about the BTN or the LHN where revenue is actually being generated per subscriber (and at higher rates 11X for the BTN in market than out). In that context how many people a team or state delivers is relevant.

    In the SEC’s case you have the two primary media contracts 1) CBS-obviously in every home with a television 2) ESPN in every home with a minimum of basic cable (100 million households). Adding Texas A&M doesn’t get you any new subscribers, etc. Any addition is really a national play instead of a local or regional one (see attraction of Nebraska to the Big Ten). ESPN and CBS bid and won their respective contracts based on what they though they could generate in advertising revenue + their desired profit margin. Ad revenue is based on projected/actual viewers. Thus, any teams’ potential worth to the SEC is based on increasing viewership.

    The question becomes 1) does adding Texas A&M make people watch more SEC football nationally? 2) Are people in Texas suddenly more likely to watch South Carolina play Auburn on a given Saturday?

    I’d argue the answer is no to both, or at least not enough to make it worthwhile. If Texas A&M had incredible ratings draw they wouldn’t have had 6 untelevised games (no PPV either because $Bill wanted seats filled in stadium) in 2009 and 4 in 2010. A school with a large alumni base wouldn’t struggle to fill their stadium on non-Texas or Nebraska games. If A&M had the drawing power the SEC needed to make them a worthwhile addition, they’d be right along side Texas launching their own statewide network.

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    1. schwarm

      Given that the SEC is already loaded with football powers, acquiring football recruiting territory and and academically strong school with a large alumni base seems like a pretty good deal. I would think LSU and Arkansas would love having a Texas team in the conference, and Bama does a bit of Texas recruiting – a game in Texas every other year would probably help them, too.

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      1. Nostradamus

        Solid reasons to add them as an additional team if you need to go to 14 or 16, but it doesn’t explain why you’d add them now. I honestly am not convinced A&M adds the economic value to make expansion viable.

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        1. Brian

          TV ratings would go way up in Dallas and Houston, especially when TAMU, LSU or Arkansas are involved. The other SEC powers would draw more eyes too as they are now conference foes.

          Recruiting is a huge incentive, especially for LSU and Arkansas but everyone all the way to AL and AU.

          TAMU would help the academic reputation, which is important to the presidents.

          The SEC would have by far the biggest footprint in population and talent base, and would prove their power by destroying another AQ conference.

          They would be a big step above the B10 unless the B10 could grab UT.

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    2. duffman

      I know it sounds counter intuitive, but you get content

      TAMU in SEC mens baseball, basketball, and women’s basketball and softball. Sure football drives the bus, but it only fills content for about 3 months. ESPN has been growing the other sports lately and they now have complete rights to WBB. I think texas is a football state, and any state school with 50,000 students will mean eyeballs over generations. Bill Byrne has moved TAMU way up the directors cup during his tenure. I think long term it is a very strategic move.

      Look at Stanford vs U$C or UCLA vs U$C. Sure U$C gets the football eyeballs, but Stanford and UCLA get the eyeballs in the other sports. What you are getting is a “bookend” in the SEC west that compliments the Gators in the SEC East in term of academics and all around sports. Kyle fits the SEC stadiums much better than the current B12 stadiums. I am guessing any school with that many students can effect eyeballs in a state. Imagine if they bring their football program on par with say their women’s basketball? Casual fans that want to just watch winners will shift from UT to TAMU.

      The SEC is already loaded with football content, what they need is new footprints and more academic adds. With TAMU they get both. Having Arkansas, LSU, and TAMU in the same division for T&F boggles the mind. If LSU or Mississippi State have 15,000 seats for baseball, I see a compliment in TAMU. If Kyle seats 90,000 and you are Bill Byrne which looks better to move the tickets, Iowa State or Auburn?

      we have been posting many Dosh links lately, and there was one about ticket sales and concessions on the bottom line. TV money is shared, but stadium and donor money are not.

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      1. Nostradamus

        The key part is football still drives the bus. Ultimately if you add a team they need to be able at a minimum to add enough money to the pot to pay for their own way. Does A&M a team that struggles to fill their stadium and gets passed over by the Big XII tv contract do that? I don’t know, but I doubt it.

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        1. Richard

          Football does drive the bus. In fact, in the SEC, football _is_ the bus, and I can see them taking TAMU just to open up Texas recruiting to the SEC.

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        2. duffman

          Nostradamus,

          You can fill a stadium two ways

          a) with your fans (preferred)
          b) their fans (not preferred, but fills the coffers)

          Several years ago I was in Nashville on business and in a very tall building that had an excellent view of the Titans stadium. It was the Music City Bowl, and Kentucky was playing Clemson. The place looked packed to the gills was easily seen, but the fact that the stadium was about 80% Kentucky Blue and 20% Clemson Orange was more obvious. Say what you will about the SEC fans, but you can not fault them for traveling to see their teams play. Again, the smaller B12 schools do not travel well, but the smaller SEC schools do (less maybe Vandy).

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          1. Play that game in Charlotte, and the stadium is likely 80 percent Clemson orange and purple and 20 percent Kentucky blue. Nashville is far easier to reach from Kentucky than it is from South Carolina, particularly if you’re driving.

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          2. duffman

            vincent,

            not doubting the switch in numbers, but some fanbase’s seem to have ticket magic. If IU and UK get equal tickets at the start, the arena has more blue come tip off time (I have been to enough games in the old hoosier dome to see it firsthand). UK basketball and SEC football just have some way to get more tickets. Even in Charlotte it would not surprise me if it was edge to UK. probably because USC folks would sell their tickets to the UK fans, or go and root against Clemson.

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  97. Christian

    This is Orangebloods premium content (Chip Brown post from 6:58pm tonight), so I will only post this snippet. Of special interest, DeLoss Dodds is the first official to hint at the super national conference with Notre Dame:

    If Texas A&M was to leave, Dodds said the Big 12 might seek to bring in another school. Dodds also said if there was not sentiment to hold the Big 12 together by the remaining members that Texas and possibly Notre Dame could join forces to create a new conference.

    Dodds gave no indication that Texas would pursue the possibility of becoming an independent.

    A top administrator at another Big 12 school said the possibility of some Big 12 schools talking to the Pac-12 could become a reality again if Texas A&M was to bolt for the SEC.

    In short, everyone in the Big 12 is back in scramble mode until Texas A&M makes clear what its intentions are.

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    1. Richard

      Hmm. TAMU, FSU, VTech, & Clemson to the SEC, UNC, Duke, UVa & Maryland to the B10.

      NCSU, BC, WFU, GTech, Miami + ND in Super East
      Texas, Baylor, OU, OkSt., ISU + BYU in Super West

      Super Conference only has to play the 5 intradivisional games as part of a conference slate (though everyone except ND and maybe Texas also schedules interdivisional games).
      ND would have their schedule set virtually every year, with 5 conference games + 3 B10 rivalry games (maybe rotating so it’s only 2 a year) + Navy + USC + probably Stanford = 10-11 games.

      TTech, Mizzou, KU, & KSU escape to the Pac.

      4 superconferences (3 traditional ones of 16, and the new one of 12).

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        1. Richard

          That wouldn’t be enough? Texas would have a whole ton of OOC games where they can dictate the terms (2-for-1s). Heck, they could probably dictate the terms for joining this conference. BYU, you want to join a BCS conference? OK, then your home games against us are going on the LHN (we’ll allow you to show them on your network as well).

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          2. Richard

            *shrug*

            Note that this conference would be made of teams that have no other good options (besides OU and OkSt., who I believe will stay and be UT’s b*tches because they recruit so heavily in Texas). I mean, what’s Baylor going to do? Say no and join CUSA?

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          3. Richard

            Oh, and thinking it over, UT may make their division more friendly to it by taking in Houston (winning over Texas politicians as well) over BYU.

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      3. mwp

        Richard, I like the Supper East/West idea. Like your later post though, I think the UT side of that conference would be full of Texas schools that fit the LHN model and would be beholden to the Longhorns: Baylor, Houston, SMU, TCU, etc.

        OU is probably the wildcard, and we´ll have to see what materializes with the Pac 1X

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    2. bullet

      Several weeks ago, before A&M started getting riled up, Dodds said he had discussions with about 20 schools in case Texas had to go indy, including ND. The discussion was that they would divide up into conferences. He didn’t say who the 20 schools were.

      Loftin is reasonable. He SHOULD be constantly looking at his options. This may be no more than that. If your AD is incompetent (see Villanova), then they aren’t prepared. But most schools are.

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  98. Michael in Raleigh

    UNC, UVA, Duke, Maryland to the Big Ten
    +
    FSU, VT, NCSU, A&M to the SEC
    +
    Miami, Wake, GT, Clemson, BC merged with Big East and Big 12 leftovers
    =
    One very, very bummed out college football fan named Michael who lives in, you guessed it, Raleigh.

    I know everyone likes to analyze the “value” of Team A to Conference B on this thread, myself included, but someone has to speak from the emotional angle of all this. It might as well be me.

    I don’t give a crap whether the above is an accurate prediction. I just know that if the f**king Longhorn Network proves to be a source of such powerful greed that it not only drives away Texas A&M (a school that UT has been linked to for over 100 years), but also ultimately creates a domino effect that destroys the conference I’ve enjoyed for as long as I’ve been old enough to understand college sports (and is based 1,000 miles to the east), I’m going to be crushed.

    Don’t get me wrong here. I think the Big Ten is great. I lived in Indiana for five years and truly enjoyed it, and I was always impressed by the class that fans of different schools in the league showed towards each other. It was much different from the redneck, belligerent, a-hole treatment that Clemson fans showed towards my 50+ year-old parents in the 90’s for their unspeakable sin of, wait for it, wearing their alma mater’s garnet and gold colors at the Clemson-FSU game. But that doesn’t mean I want to see the local teams here lose their identity by joining a Midwestern league. Nor do I want FSU to go somewhere where they’re about the 6th-most tradition rich program in their bloated, unwieldy league, rather than the signature program in an admittedly more modest league. I don’t to see Wake Forest and other schools get screwed over all because Texas A&M is so dang p’d off that their willing to jeapordize the future of so many other schools, and because Texas was willing to push them to that point.

    Does anyone else have a problem with all of this? Do people really want to see superconferences where Ohio State and Penn State play Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern once every five or six years, but play UNC and Maryland annually?

    I, for one, hope that those schools in Texas can learn to reach this crazy thing that parents teach elementary school kids to do when they can’t both get their way: a compromise. Maybe neither of them would win, but they wouldn’t have to screw over the Big 12 and ACC in order to do it.

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    1. Richard

      Well, I think the B10 would schedule it so that the schools still play every other school at least half the time (with a pod system).

      As for the emotional ties, if we look at college football history, greed trumps all.

      Personally, as a Northwestern fan, we have a national alumni (and thus fan) base, so I’d like a more national conference. Then again, my conference isn’t the one getting destroyed in my scenario, so I can certainly see where you’re coming from.

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    2. Eric

      Two thoughts.

      1. I’d have a huge problem with it. I like schools in the ACC and Big East and Big 12, but I’m an Ohio State fan and I want to play Big Ten teams. I want to play most of our games in the Midwest and if we are going to play a North Carolina or Rutgers or whomever that’s fine, but I want to play them out of conference and not in place of older Big Ten teams.

      2. Texas is NOT responsible for this. They are the easy target just as they were last year, but that’s all I think they are. They said they wanted the Big 12 to survive last year if it could work financially (with both Colorado and Missouri all but begging to leave, which would have an unknown effect on the conference), and they meant it. They rejected the PAC-10 offer, agreed to 9 conference games (not in their interest as it costs a home game every other year and provides fewer advantages than in the Big Ten), and went along with increasing the TV payout that the conference shares. The Longhorn Network is mostly using rights that all the SEC schools (supposedly more equal) already maintain at the school level. It’s only great issues are airing high school games, something they have at least put off and trying to buy a 2nd conference game, something have offered other schools money for.

      The real problem in all of this is fans not holding onto tradition and using everything else to justify it.

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      1. Richard

        Well, Texas is in part responsible, since while Texas wants to keep the B12 together, it’s mostly because they want a conference where they can lord over the peons.

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        1. Eric

          That’s the talk spreading on the internet, but I think the evidence doesn’t point to Texas having any more power in their conference. They aren’t going to go for giving up lower tier rights (again something the SEC doesn’t do) and used that to form a network. What else have they actually done to suggest they are treating everyone else so bad?

          I think Texas wants to be an overlord has been said so many times over the internet that people are gravitating to it even though the claims for that are suspect at best.

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    3. greg

      > Michael asks Does anyone else have a problem with all of this?

      Yes, I’m there with you. The last thing I want to see is conference armageddon. A little realignment is fine, but I’m happy with the way things are. I personally don’t see the 16 team conferences coming to be, but if they did, it’d lessen the quality of college sports. We saw with the 12 team B10 how difficult it was to make tradeoffs over how often schools play each other. A 16 team conference would ruin a lot of the cohesiveness of the B10.

      If 16 team conferences came to be, I think it’d be a matter of time before they broke up. The ACC is exhibit A of a conference that ruined their spirit for the promises of football riches. I don’t want to see the B10 or the SEC or the PAC do that, college football would be worse off for it.

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      1. bullet

        I agree that 16 team conferences are likely unstable. 12 teams can be very stable. Can anyone think of any Pac12, Big 10 or SEC school (other than maybe Arkansas) who would ever leave? I don’t think anyone in the ACC would move without a lot of $ being thrown at them.

        12 teams keeps reasonable rivalries rather than being a TV marriage that 16 is.

        I wonder how much of this fuss over the LHN is real. There’s nothing being proposed that wasn’t discussed when the ESPN contract was first signed. As Eric points out, Texas has less rights to their games than SEC schools.

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        1. Brian

          I think the HS games, especially the playoffs, and conference game crossed the line. How do you think SEC fans would feel about having to pay for the Gator Network to watch their team play an SEC game? How would FSU fans feel about paying for the network regardless? How would Miami feel about all the south FL recruits getting put on TV only if they show interest in UF?

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      2. John

        @Eric,
        Texas is responsible for a good deal of this. I think back to Wetzel’s book and his descriptions of how the conference act with respect to fighting over and holding onto their piece of the BCS pie and money/power in general. UT acts just like the other conferences. Problem is they aren’t a conference. They are apart of one of those conferences. Yes they obviously have the power to do behave this way, but so does Florida if they so chose to do so. It is Texas greed that is causing the Big XII to break apart. Just because they have the power to be greedy doesn’t alleviate them of guilt from the ramifications of that greed.

        Ultimately you guys are right, the fans lose. The Big 8 was better than the Big XII, and the Big Ten with 12 will be better than a Big Ten with 16. You get more money, but with more teams comes less interaction with your foes of old. So as a fan you’d better hope you like the programs you’re adding (and that’s why Mizzou’s a better fit for Big Ten than Rutgers or Maryland imo).

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        1. Michael in Raleigh

          @John,

          This is one of the best posts ever!

          “UT acts just like the other conferences. Problem is they aren’t a conference. They are apart of one of those conferences. Yes they obviously have the power to do behave this way, but so does Florida if they so chose to do so. It is Texas greed that is causing the Big XII to break apart. Just because they have the power to be greedy doesn’t alleviate them of guilt from the ramifications of that greed.”

          Brilliant.

          You can add to that that USC could have chosen to act this way, too, but bought into Larry Scott’s unifying message that embraced shared revenue for all. And just look how handsomely their cooperation paid off for them and their entire league. If Scott had been commissioner of this conference, the Big 12 would not be having these problems.

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          1. Richard

            Actually, I would characterize USC has being dragged in kicking and screaming in tot heir agreement, but luckily for them, they’re not as powerful vis-a-vis the rest of the Pac as Texas is vis-a-vis the rest of the B12, and no one out west has the options Texas, TAMU, and OU do, so they’re all stuck with each other,

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        2. bullet

          So its ok to be “greedy” as a conference because you think it serves your interest to destroy other conferences (Pac 10 raid on Big 12, Big 10 taking UNL and leaving Mizzou twisting in the wind, SEC with Arkansas, ACC with BE raid, BE with CUSA raid, CUSA with WAC raid, MWC with later WAC raid), but a school acting in its own interest is wrong? UNL was wrong to leave the Big 12 for the Big 10 with its CIC and more money? CU was wrong to leave the Big 12 for the Pac 10 for access to its alumni base and the possibility of less money? Nevada and Fresno double crossed the WAC for MWC membership and literally would have destroyed the conference had the NCAA not changed conference continuity rules.

          Texas is not any different than anyone else. They act in their own interest. In fact, Texas and OU refused any special deal from the other Big 12 schools on the exit fees. A&M is still insisting on it and if they do actually leave may severely damage the programs at Baylor, ISU, KSU and possibly Tech, KU, MU and Ok. St. as well.

          I’m still not convinced this is anything more than negotiating tactics and routine due diligence of options, much as UNL’s attack on Texas when they announced they were joining the Big 10 was a tactic in preparation for a court case on exit fees.

          Everyone is ALWAYS talking about their options. Everyone isn’t always getting ready to move.

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          1. Brian

            I think you unfairly characterized some things in your first paragraph. The B10 didn’t court MO, MO courted the B10. How can the B10 have left them hanging in the wind when the B10 never did anything in regards to them? MO left themselves twisting in the wind because they went public with their desire to move, in my opinion as an attempt to coerce the B10 into inviting them.

            The B10 didn’t take NE either, NE came to the B10 when the B12 ultimatum was given and the B10 accepted them. Similarly, CO sought the P10 out and has done so for years.

            Those are different from the P10 trying to get UT, OU, etc, or some of the previous expansions. If a school wants to join, the new conference can’t be held to blame for being desirable. If the conference actively tries to court members of another conference, that’s less acceptable.

            I do think UT gets too much blame sometimes. I also think this is the payback from the rest of the B12 for years of perceived arrogance.

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          2. swesleyh

            Bullett, I expect that if you asked the top admisnistrators of Nebraska, Colorado, and Texas A&M the reason they left or are leaving the Big Twelve, you would get a one word answer—-Texas. And if you read the boards of Missouri, Texas Tech and OU, Texas is certainly one a pleasant word right now.

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          3. bullet

            CU got along very well with UT. They have probably been wanting to leave almost since the league started. But they previously couldn’t get into the Pac 10 w/o Texas. Their alumni are heavily in CA and AZ. UNL said one thing in the news conference and totally different things once the exit fees were settled, so its hard to know what they think. But if they left because of Texas they are pretty sorry administrators. The CIC and the BTN and Big 10 TV contracts are the reasons they should have joined the Big 10-it was an excellent opportunity for them, especially considering what happened with their AAU membership.

            And remember, Delaney started everything with his endless study of expansion.

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          4. ccrider55

            Bullet, I believe CU had an invite to the Pac in the 90’s, but chose to stay with fellow Big 8 members and try to make the Big 12 work.

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          5. bullet

            What I have heard is that CU decided on a 4-3 vote to go with the Big 12 in 1994 and the terms of two of the 4 expired a few months later and were replaced by Pac 10 supporters.

            From discussions with some connected CU fans, CU changed their mind about the Pac 10, but couldn’t get a new invite without Texas. The Pac didn’t want to be the Pac 11 and Utah wasn’t what Utah is now.

            So CU did get an invite from the Pac and turned it down for joining the Big 12 when it started in 1996.

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    4. Brian

      I wouldn’t classify PSU playing MD a lot as a bad thing since they are neighbors with history. The NC schools would never fit in with the B10 except maybe IN and PU for BB love and NW for Duke. I like geographical conferences where the schools naturally fit together. Unfortunately, neither the ACC, BE nor B12 really fit that mold.

      BC and Clemson have nothing in common. WV and USF? UT and ISU?.

      I’d prefer the good old days of more, smaller conferences. If only the financials supported having the Big 8, smaller ACC, SWC, P8 and a MWC with the AZ and Utah schools among others. Maybe what we need is NCAA legislation that requires conferences to play a full round robin in football.

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      1. Michael in Raleigh

        BC and Clemson have nothing in common, granted. But BC is a lot like Duke and Wake Forest, and the school president at the time cited those schools specifically as examples of why he wanted BC to join the league.

        By the way, the ACC really screwed up with divisional alignments a few years ago, and the odd fit for BC would have seemed much less pronounced if the alignment had gone this way instead:

        Coastal Division Team (Atlantic Division Rival)

        BC (Duke)
        Maryland (Wake)
        Virginia (UNC)
        Virginia Tech (NC State)
        Georgia Tech (Clemson)
        Miami (FSU)
        ————————
        The only tradition PSU and Maryland have with each other is PSU kicking Maryland’s rear end every… single… time. It’s kinda like Nebraska-Kansas. Sure, KU and Nebraska played each other an awful lot, but it wasn’t much of a “tradition.” That said, PSU and Maryland can play each other if they want to badly enough. Both have four non-conference games. PSU apparently is playing two MAC teams and Indiana State this year. One of those could be Maryland. Heck, maybe they could make it a neutral site at Lincoln Financial or New Meadowlands. Bottom line, renewing PSU-Maryland is not a valid reason to invite the Terps into the conference. It’s just money, even if it’s at the expense of the ACC’s stability.

        All in all though, I do prefer smaller conferences. I really hope the 10-team Big 12 works and that everyone else finds a way to be satisfied.

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        1. Brian

          Michael,

          To me, the ACC’s problem is that it has several grouping of schools that fit together (private schools, BB schools, NC schools, FB schools, deep south schools, urban schools, etc) and some overlap between them, but it doesn’t feel like a cohesive whole. The B10 and SEC have outliers (NW, Vandy), but feel more like cohesive groups to me.

          You give an interesting set of divisions. The BCI blog suggests swapping BC and GT:

          FSU-Miami
          Clemson-BC
          Georgia Tech-Virginia Tech
          Maryland-Virginia
          Wake Forest-Duke
          N.C. State-North Carolina

          A one sided series (PSU/MD) is still history. I didn’t say rivalry. And there is value to the B10 in acquiring MD and its population base and TV markets. It’s a bonus that PSU would also get back one of its historical common opponents. Being bad for ACC fans isn’t part of the equation from the B10 side.

          I’m not advocating it happening, I’m just pointing out the facts.

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      2. bullet

        BC and Clemson share the start of the civil war! Without South Carolina and Massachusetts, they might have worked things out peacefully. There’s still a huge gap in the politics. Strom Thurmond and Teddy Kennedy. Actually sounds like it could develop into a good rivalry.

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        1. Richard

          Nah, the Civil War still would have occurred because the other Deep South states with a large percentage of enslaved (Georgia, Alabama, Missisippi, Louisiana, Florida) would have wanted the ability to expand their slave-holding ways. They couldn’t stand the thought of being under a Republican President.

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  99. Frank the Ag

    An excellent summary of the reasoning behind A&Ms desire to move to the SEC.

    “Privately, A&M’s brass contends that a likely move east is based more on what’s best overall for the university – security and stability are a couple of buzzwords used – than any impulsive reaction to the Longhorn Network. Simply, A&M lacks confidence in Big 12 leadership and the future of the conference, and is skeptical whether the league truly seeks equality among its 10 remaining members.”

    Read more: http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/college_sports/aggies/article/Aggies-giggin-em-Signs-point-to-SEC-1844590.php#ixzz1UgqD8YA5

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      1. Bigredforever

        Right now, every Big12 school is talking and making plans. I don’t think we’ll see 4 16 team conferences. There will end up being 5. The only conference that won’t exist in the future will be the Big12.

        then watch the split from the NCAA.

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  100. jj

    Has a joint venture ever been discussed in place of chaos? Why can’t, for example, the B10 and Pac12 maintain their conferences but have a joint network. Schedule a “challenge” each year for 1 non-conf game, play the rose bowl and figure out an equitable way to split the dough. Seems pretty easy. Franky, I might watch more BTN if there was other content.

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      1. Brian

        Why split with the P12? In 2017, the B10 could kick ESPN to the curb and go solo with the BTN. It would be gutsy, but there’s be a lot more games available, including replays.

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    2. Michael in Raleigh

      I recall reading in late 2009 that Pac 10 and Big 12 had considered doing a joint network. The ACC was also in the mix. However, it wouldn’t have been as a deterrent to chaos, just a cooperation between conferences.

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  101. duffman

    here is an article with Beebe from late wednesday:

    http://www.statesman.com/sports/collegefootball/big-12-taking-talk-of-am-move-to-1724657.html

    Listed as replacements for TAMU:

    Notre Dame – I have very high doubt for this one
    Arkansas – Leaving the SEC, highly doubtful
    BYU / AF – They might schedule UT, but not share a conference with them
    TCU – maybe if they offered hoards of cash
    Louisville – Jurich has made real money for the cards to blow it on Texas

    Houston – this sounds most probable, but trading TAMU for Houston is steep drop

    The bigger question if TAMU is the next rat off this sinking ship, how far behind will OU + oSu be? They are at 10 now, but could be at 7 very quickly.

    The thing I do find funny tho, that no one seems to have brought up is the old saying “while the cat is away, the mice will play” as this seems to be happening while Beebe and Powers were in Indy for the NCAA summit. 😉

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    1. jj

      Big Dan will “consider” inviting ND or Arkansas? lol.

      He better consider putting on a giant pot of coffee for an all nighter to figure out the mess he’s in.

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      1. Brian

        Maybe Beebe should consider inviting UF and USC, too. Maybe AL and OSU as well.

        He better focus on inviting (read: begging) UT and OU to stay. They might be gettable, but ND is not.

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        1. Patrick

          Beebe is flippin’ delusional! His job is gone, he’s just trying to put a positive spin on DeLoss so he can keep his job as a BevoTV analyst for HS football games.

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    2. Brian

      ND isn’t joining anybody.

      AR isn’t leaving the SEC for the B12, especially with TAMU coming to the SEC.

      BYU, AF and TCU might join for the money, but I don’t think so. BYU would prefer stability. I’m not sure AF wants to be AQ. TCU doesn’t want to be UT’s lackey any more than TAMU does, especially when they can be king of the BE, but it might be worth it to them.

      UL would be a complete outlier. I’m not sure they want to head southwest.

      UH doesn’t add much. UT already brings Houston.

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      1. bullet

        Get real. TCU and UL would join before Beebe could finish the sentence. BYU wouldn’t think much longer. Their independence is to get more exposure. B12 does that.

        UL isn’t any more an outlier to B12 than it is to BE.

        B12 will have no problem finding a decent replacement. The only issue is how OU feels about a B12 w/o CU, UNL and A&M. If OU and A&M also both leave, the party’s over. But we don’t necessarily get superconferences. We may get something entirely different.

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        1. duffman

          bullet,

          I beg to differ, jurich likes the BE and the basketball exposure. The cards will not get that same exposure playing Iowa State and Texas Tech!

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          1. bullet

            Exposure like he does with Seton Hall and Providence? The B12 was light years ahead of the BE in football which drives the bus and not far behind in basketball. Without CU, UNL and A&M, the Big 12 is stronger than before in bb. Over the last 10 years, without CU and A&M, the Big 12 would have been stronger in fb than it was. UNL wasn’t that much of a plus over that time frame. Long term, obviously, is a different story for the Big 12. But the BE long term is not going to be dramatically better in fb.

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          2. Richard

            jcfreder:
            The idea that the Pac cares when it comes to academics (at least to the degree that the Big10 and to a degree the ACC do) is a big misconception. The Pac schools gave Larry Scott the directive to get them as much money as possible, which is why he was trying to lasso TTech & OkSt. in order to get OU and Texas last go around. If you cared about academics, you wouldn’t take those schools.

            Now, the Pac does care about not wanting overly religious schools who don’t play Sundays and don’t have academic freedom or graduate research (which is why BYU will never get an invite), but that wouldn’t exclude any of the B12 schools (besides Baylor, which is a moot point).

            Ultimately, it comes down to OU (and OkSt.). If they stay, the B12 likely remains (the Pac _may_ take TTech, KU, KSU, & Mizzou, but they’d likely wait for OU). Would OU be happy joining the Pac with TTech & Mizzou, or would they rather stay in a diminished Big12 (or a superconference composed of the remnants of the ACC and B12)?

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        2. Brian

          I didn’t say TCU wouldn’t do it, I said they don’t want to be UT’s lackey. I think they would at least wait to see what the BE contract turns out to be before jumping ship. They’re used to no TV money, so even the BE will be a big boost for them.

          UL has UC right there, plus DePaul, WV and PItt as close or closer than any B12 school. The nearest B12 school is MO, and they seem a likely candidate to leave as well leaving KU as the closest.

          As for BYU, you have to remember the church owns it and money is not a major concern for them. Their new ESPN deal gets them a ton of exposure on their terms. I’m not sure they want to be in a conference with a bunch of large state flagship schools focused on sports and money where they would be average at best in most sports and thus not be televised as much. I’m not saying they would definitely say no, but I think they would think long and hard about it and how it fits their mission.

          I agree that if the only loss is TAMU, the B12 should be able to find a quality replacement unless everyone senses impending doom in the next few years. I’m just not sure who it would be. I’m guessing BYU and TCU would be high on the list, but other AQs probably would say no unless the BE negotiation goes poorly in which case UL might consider it (they would get to play KU in hoops after all).

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          1. I’m not sure stability is a HUGE problem for the B12, even assuming B12 leaves. As long as Texas wants to stay, that is. If the P12 cannot get Texas, would they even take OU (and OSU, as the CW is that they are a package)? They seem to take academics seriously and the whole P16 idea seemed more like they were holding their noses at the other schools in order to land Texas. Then there is is the question whether the SEC would take OU if OSU has to come along. I personally think it would probably be a good idea, but we don;t know if the SEC thinks that.

            Once you get past OU, I don’t think the others are a threat to leave. MAYBE Mizzou, but I’ll believe that when I see it. So basically, if OSU is tied to OU, that might bind the league together.

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          3. Brian

            But that’s a BIG if. And OU has to decide what they do if UT might leave. Do they go with TAMU now, or wait until after UT leaves (if they leave)? Do they head west instead? Do they stay put and try to rebuild the B12 if UT leaves?

            If OU is content to wait it out, figuring they’ll land on their feet regardless, then the B12 should stay stable. If the SEC starts talking about going to 16 with or without them, things change.

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          4. bullet

            OU doesn’t have to worry about a safe landing. For that matter, A&M doesn’t either. If OU and UT decided to go indy, I’m sure the Pac would be willing to take A&M even if the SEC wasn’t.

            Now that doesn’t mean OU would necessarily want to stay in a 9 team Big 12, but maybe they would.

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          5. Brian

            bullet,

            OU doesn’t have to worry about a safe landing, but they may have strong preferences that have to be taken into account now. If the B12 goes away, where would they want to be? If they really want the SEC, then they have to go before the SEC hits 16. Otherwise, they can sit and wait this all out.

            I don’t think independence is an option for OU. They don’t have a big state to drive TV revenue like TX does, and they don’t have the national appeal of ND. The politicos might try to protect OkSU by making OU choose a conference and bring them along or make sure they get in another good one.

            TAMU doesn’t really need options. If they don’t move, probably nothing happens. Still, the P12 and B10 would both consider them if the SEC doesn’t.

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          6. bullet

            I was just using OU independence to point out that A&M had options, not that it was a realistic possibility. I don’t think independence would be good for Texas and I’m sure Deloss Dodds agrees also.

            Texas doesn’t “own” the state of Texas the way UGA owns Georgia or Alabama and Auburn own Alabama. There are a lot of out-of-staters and Houston and Dallas are pro sports towns. UT owns Austin and has a pretty good grip on San Antonio, and, of course, its hundreds of thousands of alumni.

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          7. Richard

            jcfreder:
            The idea that the Pac cares when it comes to academics (at least to the degree that the Big10 and to a degree the ACC do) is a big misconception. The Pac schools gave Larry Scott the directive to get them as much money as possible, which is why he was trying to lasso TTech & OkSt. in order to get OU and Texas last go around. If you cared about academics, you wouldn’t take those schools.

            Now, the Pac does care about not wanting overly religious schools who don’t play Sundays and don’t have academic freedom or graduate research (which is why BYU will never get an invite), but that wouldn’t exclude any of the B12 schools (besides Baylor, which is a moot point).

            Ultimately, it comes down to OU (and OkSt.). If they stay, the B12 likely remains (the Pac _may_ take TTech, KU, KSU, & Mizzou, but they’d likely wait for OU). Would OU be happy joining the Pac with TTech & Mizzou, or would they rather stay in a diminished Big12 (or a superconference composed of the remnants of the ACC and B12)?

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    1. Brian

      Can we combine them with the ACC core, NW and PSU in one division and the old B10, with NE replacing NW, in the other? 9 game round robin plus a CCG.

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  103. M

    Is this really happening?? I keep reading more and more leaks, but I keep thinking it’s just saber rattling. Every thing just seems wrong: the timing (why make a move now when it couldn’t possibly occur until 2013), TAMU’s financial situation (they can’t possibly pay for the exit penalties), the politics (is Perry going to allow to happen right before he needs big donors for a presidential campaign), the proactive stance of the SEC (saying they wouldn’t make the first move in the next realignment), the imbalance (13 teams? wouldn’t we be hearing more info about #14 if it were imminent?)

    If this is real, the A&M leaders clearly have not been regular readers at Frank’s blog for the past 18 months.

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    1. jj

      M:

      I wonder all that myself, but someone once told me that you can’t put a price on psychic satisfaction. If they feel better doing it, people will likely do it.

      I just can’t believe these guys can’t sit down and save a 100 year relationship. TU has burnt several already, maybe they don’t care.

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    2. duffman

      M,

      I keep thinking about all this too, and I still think this is a bluff by TAMU for and equal partnership with UT, especially as TAMU is riding high and UT is running low. The one thing that make me think it is happening now is political. Perry is launching a bid for the White House, and he already has Texas, what he needs are friendly votes and a “whistle stop” tour through the south to pick up big donor checks along the way. If he wants to do it, football season is fast approaching and two things hit my brain.

      a) the south loves football
      b) SEC football games are packed with southern fatcats

      perry needs national donors more right now than local ones, so I can see a reason for the odd timing. it actually makes sense in an odd way.

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      1. bullet

        Perry does have Texas. Everyone is desperate for him to run as President to get rid of him as governor. He got 38% of the vote in 2004, but it was a 3 way race with a Democrat and a former Democrat turned Republican who would be considered a liberal Republican even in Maine. Perry’s really irrelevant. Its the legislature that may or may not be interested.

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  104. Houston

    M – “If this is real, the A&M leaders clearly have not been regular readers at Frank’s blog for the past 18 months.”

    Hahaha… or more likely, Frank just isn’t the all-knowing alignment guru we thought he was.

    “I just can’t believe these guys can’t sit down and save a 100 year relationship.”

    Think of it as 2 brothers leaving their dysfunctional family’s house.. but that doesn’t make them less of brothers. Texas is going to need games once they go independent. The interest in the Thanksgiving Day Texas/Aggie game will be at an all time high after this soap opera. There’s no way Texas or Espn is going to want to lose that game. The rivalry and hatred will continue and grow.

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  105. drwillini

    Some of you seem very informed and thoughtul on the business of college football, especially FtT, and I’d really like an answer to a question I have asked several times. How much would it be worth to the P12 network to have Central time game starts, as they would by addinig a contingent of B12 schools? I see that as potentially providing programming in two ways:
    1.) Earlier starts, for example early live basketball games and early saturday morning football on the west coast for a longer run of live programming, and
    2.) Making the network a viable option for viewers in the mountain and central time zones. Not just those affiilated with schools added, but general sportsfans with a bed time.

    Personally I can’t see how the P12 network can hope to rival the BTN on the national stage if it does not offer more central time starts.

    An added benefit of this that might exist but I’m not sure of is the added east coast visibility. It would seem like this would help for national championship votinig and heisman voting, but in reality I’m not sure there has been a measurable bias against west coast school. I’d really like to hear from those of you that have this figured out.

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    1. Brian

      Well, CT starts help in the east but hurt them in the west. I’m sure there is some money to be made, though.

      I think they are more worried about building the PTN in the west first and then getting more national prominence. The B10 has a ton of alumni spread all over the highly populated eastern half of the country which is a huge advantage. How many people in the east care about a P12 team not in the top 10 or top 25? I think they would be wise to try to win over LA and the other big western markets, where their alumni dominate, first.

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    2. m (Ag)

      Getting some good central time zone schools would be big for the Pac x network in sports other than football. The ability to show live basketball games starting at 7 or 8pm Eastern (6/7 pm Central) on weeknights is certainly good for getting viewers. This probably makes Kansas basketball more valuable than you would think for the Pac 16; they would be showcased often in that early slot.

      For Football, it’s not as big a deal. Pacific schools can start games at 3:30 Eastern (12:30 local time), so we’re just talking about 1 really early game per week (noon Eastern, 11:00 Central). The Pac will have at most 4 schools in the central time zone to host those games with half on the road most weeks. I’m guessing the Arizona schools and Pacific schools will specifically request not to have their road games start that early, and the networks will want to hold some games (say Utah @Colorado) for better time slots. That means some weeks they still might not have a game to put on that early slot.

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  107. mushroomgod

    Here’s what I think happens:

    A@M and WVU to SEC……….

    Piit and Cuse to ACC………..

    OK and OK State to PAC 14……..

    MO and Rutgers to BIG…………

    All the UNCDuke/MD to BIG talk is, with all due respect, nonsense.

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    1. Brian

      I could maybe see that all being true if:

      1. The ACC FB schools really don’t want to join the SEC (thus no VT, Clemson, FSU or Miami)
      2. The BE FB conference crumbles once one goes (WV)
      3. OU doesn’t want to be in the SEC
      4. The B10 takes MO to keep the SEC away and/or MD refuses the B10
      5. The core ACC bonds are really strong

      I definitely agree with 2 and 5. 1 and 4 seem very possible. 3 is questionable, but certainly possible.

      What you don’t explain:

      1. What happens to the rest of the B12 (UT, Baylor, TT, KU, KSU, ISU)? That’s a pretty big part of the puzzle, especially UT.

      2. What happens to the rest of the BE FB schools (UConn, UC, UL, TCU, USF)?

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      1. What if the SEC went “all west” (A&M, Oklahoma, Okie State and Missouri)? If it values both A&M and OU, a two-and-two east/west is next to impossible because OSU has to tag along. If I’m Larry Scott, I try to head the SEC off at the pass by inviting OU and OSU to beat the SEC to the punch.

        Maryland would be the easiest part of the ACC core to pick off (for the Big Ten — it has no interest in the Big East despite some silly newspaper reports, and is a poor cultural fit for the SEC), as its ties to the rest of the conference are comparatively weak. Virginia has deeper, longtime ties to UNC, while UNC has ties to nearby NCSU and Duke.

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          1. Richard

            Because of Boone Pickens, I’m pretty certain OkSt. will go where OU goes.

            I do have to admit that I don’t understand the fascination with Mizzou. It really adds nothing (besides sheer averageness in athletics & population and below-B10-caliber academics) to the B10. . .or the SEC. I don’t see either conference going for Mizzou. Maybe the Pac will if they’re hellbent on getting to 16.

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          2. Brian

            MO expands the footprint (worth $16M+ to BTN), brings natural rivalries and solid sports. I wouldn’t chase MO, but I would seriously consider taking them if the SEC offers them.

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      2. Richard

        Actually, the key assumption is that the SEC doesn’t want the OK schools, as OkSt. doesn’t bring enough and OK is a small state. Think of it this way, if the SEC had a chance at FSU&VTech or OU&OkSt., which would they choose? I think the answer is pretty obvious.

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    2. In all of this, I still thin one of the bigger misconceptions is that each conference has to “match” each other in terms of membership. MAYBE we’ll end up with 4 14-school conferences or 4-16 conferences, but I can’t help but wonder if thsi is driven by fans’ (completely understandable) desire for symmetry. But the conferences are not wokring together in lockstep on this. Explansion has to be for a reason. We’ve seen a recent flurry because 12 is a logical, stable number because of the championship game revenue. If the SEC adds TAMU to go to 13, it will be because TAMU is a slam-dunk addition. I understand the desire to then go to 14 for scheduling reasons, but understand that each SEC school almost certainly loses money by adding a 14th (I’d argue that adding TAMU as the 13th might be a short-term money loser if current contracts aren;t changed, but long term it’s an obvious goldmine.)

      So the question is, why would the B10 add Mizzou and Rutgers? Can they add the marginal revenue necessary? Probbaly not. Unless Rutgers really does have a captive market, but if they did, the B10 would have added them already. I see future B10 expansion coming driven by either (1) a home-run addition such as ND or Tex, or (2) there is a true armageddon and the gameboard really gets shaken up – but even in that scenario, I’m wondering where the marginal revenue is coming from.

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      1. Brian

        They don’t have to match each other, but there is a constant power struggle between the conferences. The B10 and P12 can’t let the SEC get too far ahead, so they would respond if it made sense. They would also try to block the SEC from getting maximum value if it makes sense (taking MO or OU so the SEC can’t, for example). It wouldn’t be that the SEC went to 14 or even 16 that would bother the P12 and B10, but rather that they expanded into big markets like TX. That’s what requires a response.

        As for adding MO:

        1. Adding MO keeps the SEC from getting them, which has intangible value
        2. MO fits the footprint and has natural rivalries with NE, IA and IL
        3. MO adds 2.2M TV households, or about $16.6M per year in BTN fees (see below)
        4. Extra inventory and more TVs mean more viewers and more ad revenue

        Rutgers:

        1. Adding Rutgers keeps the ACC from getting them (only a minor value)
        2. Rutgers is a natural fit for PSU, and PSU has been wanting an eastern team
        3. Rutgers adds at least 3.1M TV households, maybe a lot more (3.1M = Cablevision only). That translates to $24M per year.
        4. Extra inventory and more TVs mean more viewers and more ad revenue

        http://www.hawkeyenation.com/football/dollars-and-sense-of-big-ten-expansion

        TV households:
        Rutgers 3.1M (just Cablevision, could be a lot more)
        MO 2.2M

        MO at 91% penetration becomes 2M subscribers or $1.4M per month ($0.70 per month) for $16.8M compared to the $220k or so the BTN gets now. MO also brings rivalries with several schools and finishes the SW border of the B10 versus the SEC.

        RU with 90% BTN penetration (to be conservative) = 2.8M subscribers. At $0.70 per month, that’s $2M per month in fees, or $24M per year. Then add any fees from the rest of the area, extra advertising, etc.

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        1. greg

          Why is it that “The B10 and P12 can’t let the SEC get too far ahead”. This is an accepted premise that I disagree with. Who cares if the SEC has four more teams than the B10? That isn’t a reason to expand. SEC had an additional team for 20 years and it didn’t seem to matter.

          We talk about these decisions being 50 to 100 year decisions, and you are primarily basing it on the number of televisions? In 10 years, BTN may be a complete online presence making their money off opt-in subscribers. If the entire state of New Jersey doesn’t care about Rutgers, they aren’t going to subscribe to online feeds.

          I still think B10 is staying at 12 without a home run. And fortunately, the home run ain’t coming.

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          1. Brian

            Perhaps you should actually read what I wrote before replying to it negatively. I explicitly said that the number of schools doesn’t matter. I said it is a money and power struggle, and that’s where the B10 and P12 can’t let the SEC (or anyone else) get too far ahead.

            As for the TV numbers, I was answering his question about MO or Rutgers paying for themselves. I’m sorry for offering factual information relevant to a question that was asked.

            And BTW, I’m not basing any decision on anything. I don’t want expansion.

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          2. Richard

            Brian:

            Right, except I don’t see how adding either Mizzou or Rutgers actually enhances the B10 in a power struggle.

            If the SEC adds some combination of TAMU, FSU, and/or VTech, they would add to their stable of national title contenders, add schools who are additive economically, and expand the SEC reach in to fertile recruiting areas.

            Other than NJ being a recruiting ground, adding Mizzou and Rutgers would do none of that for the B10. All it would do is make the old B10 schools play each other less often. If you’re against taking in the core of the old ACC because you think it cuts down on the number of games B10 schools play against traditional rivals, I can’t see how you can support adding Rutgers & Mizzou instead. At least UNC & Duke (and maybe the other 2 ACC schools) are national title contenders in basketball, and MD,DC,VA,&NC are all abundantly fertile recruiting areas. Unlike Mizzou, they all fit perfectly academically as well.

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          3. Brian

            Richard,

            I haven’t been advocating adding MO and Rutgers. I have said multiple times I don’t want B10 expansion. That doesn’t prevent me from pointing out the other side of the issue to people who think MO and Rutgers are worthless. I said the B10 would respond “if it makes sense.” I doubt the B10 thinks adding RU and MO right now makes sense. If circumstances change, however, then it might make sense.

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      2. bullet

        13 is a disaster from a scheduling standpoint. Its the worst number for a conference between 8 and 16, with the possible exception of 11 (too many for round robin, not enough for divisions).

        NCAA rules require you to play everyone in your division in order to have a championship game. That leads to an unbalanced schedule. If everyone in the 6 team division plays 8, then the 7 team division has 4 with 8 and 3 with 9 games.

        The MAC had a real problem a few years back. I think they may have gotten a waiver of some sort recently, but haven’t seen anything on it. I suspect the NCAA would be a lot more lenient with the MAC than the SEC on that rule.

        In any event, even with a waiver, you would have teams in the same division not playing each other.

        13 just doesn’t work.

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        1. jcfreder

          @Bullet: the 13-team scheduling math is a really good point. The SEC would either have to get a waiver or add a 14th. Ultimately I can’t see logistical factor like things keeping TAM out, but yeah, they’d almost certainly add a 14th immediately.

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      3. Eric

        I agree the assumption that they keep at the same place is very unlikely. The Big Ten stayed at 11 for close to decades after the march to 12 began. The ACC would have prefered 11 without a conference championship game. The Big 12 would never have gone to 12 if Baylor and Tech didnt have to be part of the package and who knows what the SEC would have done if they could have gotten a championship with 10 or 11.

        12 has only been a magic number because it means a CCG and it still isn’t a number every conference is getting to. I seriously doubt the SEC going to 14 is going to make anyone else feel they have to get there.

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    3. Jim

      No better conference wants WVU. They just don’t bring anything to the table. Bad acedmics even for the SEC. Small and poor state. Not a national brand.

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      1. Brian

        They bring rabid fans and a stadium that sells beer. That has to count for something.

        WV actually has high revenue numbers since they are good at hoops, too. Put them on the SEC TV contract and the numbers would be really big.

        I’m not saying WV is highly desirable, but they wouldn’t be terrible. It depends who else you can get.

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        1. Academically, WVU is about the level of the lower SEC institutions (Miss. State, Auburn). It’s had some Rhodes Scholars, too.

          Obviously WVU is not in play for the Big Ten, and the only way it joins the ACC is if the conference core leaves and the league has to replenish itself for version 2.0. But it’s not a bad fit for the SEC, other than being a bit northeast of the other campuses.

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    4. Richard

      mushroom:

      Why would the B10 take Rutgers and Mizzou when they didn’t want them before? If the B10 can’t get UNC (and by extension, the rest of the ACC core four), they’d simply stay at 12. The B10 has absolutely no imperative to expand, no matter what everyone else does.

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    1. Ross

      Yeah, saw that earlier, interesting stuff. He was really adamant about ND + UT being very close to joining the B1G the last go around, but they were demanding preferential treatment that wasn’t working. The LHN point is an interesting one. Could the LHN and BTN really be allowed to coexist in the same conference together?

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      1. Ross

        Quick follow-up…

        The whole set of problems the LHN has brought to the B12 are seemingly the reaosn A&M would pursue leaving the conference in the first place. The LHN would still be trying to get a conference game on its network in the B1G, as well as away games for free. That’s honestly going to be an even greater challenge with the BTN in place.

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        1. Brian

          Trying to get and getting are two different things. Does anybody really care if they televise things that even the BTN doesn’t want to carry? Make it part of the deal that the BTN can stream those same events.

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        1. Richard

          Jump from a similar TV situation to another but one where the other schools are WAY farther away and don’t have an academic consortium? Good luck.

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      3. Brian

        The LHN would essentially be a regional BTN, just like the P12 is doing. I think you just make at least equal carriage of the BTN in TX a condition, at a price at least equal to the LHN or half of the average in-state BTN fee, whichever is higher.

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    2. greg

      I don’t lend any credence to PurpleBookCat. The LHN joining the BT stands out as something that couldn’t possibly happen, and the marriage would certainly fall apart in the not-so-distant future. And A&M wants to flee UT but would be willing to join them in the conference of northerners? UT wants to rejoin Nebraska?

      Too many impossibilities in one rumor.

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      2. Mike

        For the record, Nebraska fans and Texas fans may not like each other, but the animosity doesn’t exist between administrations. Pearlman and Powers are friends and Nebraska and Texas were in agreement more often than not in the Big 12. Remember, Texas voted to keep UNL in the AAU something all Nebraska’s new conference brothers didn’t even do.

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        1. Herbie

          Mike–that’s not true.

          The only think that is truly known is that Texas’ AAU representative was the chairman of the committee that sought to expel Nebraska. That the same committee used underhanded tactics, including arbitrarily extending the length of the voting process to get ballots from schools that weren’t originally going to vote after the committee realized they didn’t have enough votes for expulsion. Chancellor Pearlman detailed all of this out and the AAU still has yet to refute the timeline and accusations Pearlman presented.

          The member votes were not public knowledge, and there’s no way to actually know if Texas is telling the truth (something they have a problem with historically…) or not.

          And considering how many votes that Nebraska and Texas were on opposite ends of the spectrum on during their time together in the Big XII, any statements about a lack of animosity is pure, unadulterated bull****, even the stuff coming from Tom Osborne.

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          1. bullet

            Texas and Nebraska agreed on everything of importance. Basically the only things they disagreed on were Prop 12s (11-1) which was moot since NCAA banned them a year or two later, The location of the Big 12 championship in Jerry World (also 11-1) and moving the Big 12 office (don’t remember that vote).

            It was Pearlman who said the Big 12 schools voted for them.

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          3. Nostradamus

            Yeah most of those votes Nebraska fans love to cite (and Mike and I are both Nebraska fans) were 11-1 or 10-2 against Nebraska. It wasn’t just Texas. Why not blame an Iowa State, KU, KSU, Missouri who on some of those votes were voting against their own interests ultimately?

            On the fundamental issues going forward like revenue sharing, launching own television networks going forward, they were pretty darn aligned.

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          4. I’m skeptical of this report because he was wrong before and it seems too good to be true. So the politicians would let Texas AND Texas A&M skip out on TTech and Baylor?

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  109. Eric

    What I find most ironic in the Texas is greedy standpoint is that their actions were largely an attempt to avoid that.

    Last summer Larry Scott said the Longhorn Network would not be a deal killer to the PAC-10. It might be now, but it wasn’t when they were offered last year. Texas could be making more money in the PAC-16 this year than it will be staying in the Big 12 because it would still have the Longhorn Network and an even bigger PAC-16 contract. Texas refused that, stayed in the Big 12, probably saved Baylor from ending up non-AQ and are almost universally viewed as greedy while if they had left they would be viewed as giving that up because they choose to join a more equal revenue sharing conference (that vote probably would have ended the same in the PAC with USC, UCLA, Texas, and Oklahoma in the minority).

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m not arguing Texas is some saint here. They did have their own reasons for this, but they didn’t take the most greedy option.

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    1. Michael in Raleigh

      My problem is that Texas seems rather disingenuous about their intentions behind the Longhorn Network. The LHN contract provides ample information that the UT administration conveniently decided not to be forthcoming with their fellow conference members about. Dodds has implied that UT was caught off guard when ESPN announced intentions to put a Big 12 game on the LHN, but the contract that his university signed states UT itself is responsible to help ESPN get games on the network. His university signed a contract where UT is prohibited from playing away games on a conference network. That not only provides UT at a questionable advantage. It purposefully forces a disadvantage upon its fellow conference members.

      It’s quite a double-standard, is it not? UT expects Big 12 members to willing play their away games in Austin on the UT-driven Longhorn Network, yet UT set itself up where it cannot play its own away games at other conference schools on a conference network. I don’t blame the A&M faithful one bit for being infuriated over that.

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      1. RedDenver

        I’ve read elsewhere that the LHN contact does not and cannot prevent UT from being on another network for away games. UT does not own the rights to games they play at another stadium – the home team does – and therefore cannot give those rights to ESPN. The misinterpreted part involves UT not being allowed to give any of their rights to a conference network, where UT only has rights to their home games.

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        1. Brian

          Exactly. Unless UT forfeits all road games, they would be on the B12 network. They simply aren’t allowed to give any rights to a competitor of the LHN, and they only have rights to their home games that the first and second tier TV partners don’t want.

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  110. Jake

    Hi everybody,
    Man, you spend a few days moving and look what you miss. Apparently I only go to schools with top-ranked football programs, as I’m now getting ready to start grad school at OU. Yes, I live in Norman. No, it isn’t that bad. And no, I’m not suddenly becoming a Sooner fan – my loyalties remain with my Horned Frogs. If anyone’s coming to town for a game and needs a place to crash, let me know. It’ll cost you one six pack of Fat Tire, since New Belgium doesn’t distribute here due to the wacky alcohol laws.

    Anyway, to the topic. I’m not sure how this would affect Rick Perry politically – plenty of UT fans wouldn’t seem to mind seeing the last of A&M, even if their administration feels differently. Personally, I want them to stay. In the Big 12 they can at least serve as a check on UT. And the one immutable rule of college football realignment I’ve learned over the years is that whatever happens, TCU always gets screwed. SWC loses Arkansas, then falls apart. MWC splits from WAC. CUSA raided by Big East. MWC loses Utah and BYU. Each time, TCU is left searching for a new home. So, the longer the status quo can hold, the better, thanks.

    And yes, semantics does matter. When you talk about recruiting, you have to remember that you’re dealing with high school athletes, not lawyers. An RSN that happens to have a deal with a college is a big difference from one that exists solely to broadcast that college’s sports. A Texas high school player isn’t going to think “Oh, my team’s going to be on an ESPN channel that happens to be based in Austin, uses a UT name and logo, and shows almost exclusively UT programming, even though UT has no ownership stake.” They’re going to think, “Hey, we’re playing on UT’s channel.” I doubt anyone thinks of Sun Sports as Florida’s own channel, particularly with all of the pro sports they carry. If the NCAA doesn’t have the power to tell ESPN what to do in this situation, then maybe the UIL (think NCAA for Texas high school sports) should step in and inform the schools that appearing on the Longhorn Network probably isn’t a smart move if they want their players to remain eligible.

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      1. bullet

        The University Interscholastic League (which regulates Texas high school sports) is a component of the University of Texas, much like UT Publishing is, and how some agricultural extension services are part of the state Ag schools, Texas Transportation Institute is similarly, a component of Texas A&M. So its kind of an independent component of the school.

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        1. RedDenver

          It’ll be interesting to see where the UIL stands on the LHN. You’d hope they weren’t influenced by the UT athletic components, but we’ll probably never really know.

          On a different note, Stewart Mandel tweets:
          Board of Directors affirms that “current bylaws do not support” televising HS games on school/conference networks.

          Does the NCAA have the cajones and legal authority to prevent ESPN from televising HS games?

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          1. Brian

            As I said before, they don’t need to do anything about ESPN. All the NCAA has to do is declare that any HS player who plays in a game televised or streamed on a school or conference network becomes permanently ineligible for NCAA sports. The high schools will then refuse to sign deals with the LHN and their ilk in the future.

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          2. John

            But is the LHN a “school or conference network.” Think they’ll say that they are an ESPN entity same as ESPNU therefore game on as it relates to Texas HS sports.

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          3. Brian

            I’m guessing the lawyers at the NCAA can right a more complete description that encompasses things like the LHN. I wrote one sentence in common language to give the gist of it.

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          4. bullet

            ESPN already televises HS games, but the issue of school/conference networks hasn’t come up before. The BTN was the first.

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          5. Brian

            bullet,

            The Mtn was first, actually. And yes, ESPN and several regional sports networks cover HS sports but I think he was referring to the LHN as ESPN in this case.

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      1. Jake

        Were you replying to me? In that case, yes, it seems the Big East is doomed. At which point TCU will accept an invite to the Pac-12 and we’ll all wonder why that couldn’t have happened earlier.

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  111. gas1958

    I agree the A&M to the Big 10+2 is an unlikely scenario, most of all for a reason discussed the last time around on this board: culture. Imagine the SAT question, “Which of these doesn’t belong with the others?”
    a. Madison
    b. College Station
    c. Ann Arbor
    d. Bloomington, IN
    e. Iowa City
    This is not a knock against A&M, but this would never work.

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    3. cutter

      Which of these don’t belong?

      A. PIttsburgh, PA

      B. Syracuse, NY

      C. Storrs, CT

      D. Fort Worth, TX

      E. Louisville, KY

      F. Morgantown, WV

      G. Cincinnati, OH

      If the answer is D, than Texas Christian doesn’t belong in the Big East either.

      In the end, that may be the case as well if Texas A&M does make a move to the SEC and Big XII somehow manages to survive, then don’t be surprised if TCU is on Don Beebe’s speed dial.

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      1. Eric

        I don’t see what value TCU brings to the Big 12 though. The conference is still very well covered with 3 teams including UT. You could approach BYU and get the same calibur of an expansion candidate without overlapping in Texas and I’d be shocked if they turned the Big 12 down.

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        1. cutter

          TCU’s value wouldn’t be with the Big XII–it’d be with an expanded Pac 16 Conference.

          Texas turned down the then Pac 10’s overtures last year, so that leaves teams like Texas Christian and Texas Tech as possible programs in an expanded Pac 12. I would put those two on a higher plain than any Houston, Rice or SMU in terms of getting the Pac 12 into the state.

          Couple those two with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and that rounds out the Pac 16 Conference. Now is it very likely that TCU would bounce from the Mountain West to the Big East to the Pac 16 in the matter of a couple of years? Follow the money and ask yourself this–in terms of mass appeal, does TCU-Oklahoma or TCU-USC sound more intresting that TCU-West Virginia or TCU-Pittsburgh? Which conference would be more stable–the Pac 16 or the Big East?

          Texas is actually in an interesting pickle of their own making right now. If Texas A&M joins the SEC, then college football has essentially crossed the Rubicon in terms of 14- or 16-team super conferences with the SEC being the first one. We really don’t know what things will look like as the dust settles, but the next logical step in the sequence is that the SEC at least adds another team.

          There are lots of candidates out there. We know that Slive talked to Texas A&M and Oklahoma last year, but that didn’t pan out. Does OU join ATM to the SEC? Or does Oklahoma listen to Larry Scott and go to the Pac 12 with Oklahoma State? Or does OU try to stick it out in what may be a dying conference which is dominated by Texas? The answer to that question is key to how the rest of this works out.

          From what I’ve read, the Big XII would be willing to become a nine-game conference and play eight conference games if Texas A&M left. Does anyone think that sort of structure is going to last for long given the current environment of collegiate sports? I’d be hard pressed to imagine it, which means the Big XII goes back to ten members by inviting a program like Brigham Young at a minimum.

          If the SEC does add a 14th member and it’s not from the Big XII, then it’ll come from the ACC or Big East. That sets in motion even more conference expansion/contraction and opens up a whole nest of possiblities. If the SEC opts to add three more in addition to Texas A&M, then you open up a whole can of worms.

          If the SEC stays west, then we might be looking at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Texas A&M. If not Missouri, then maybe Texas Tech.

          If the SEC mixes east and west, then perhaps its Texas A&M and Missouri with two schools from the ACC and/or Big East. I assume that Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are essentially insperable because of the state legislature–one wouldn’t go to the SEC without the other. If that were to happen, then the Big XII becomes an eight-team conference while the SEC goes to become the first 16-team super conference. And while all that’s happening, Larry Scott is making phone calls to Norman and Stillwater discussing the Pac 16 Network Oklahoma with the AD’s and presidents at OU and OKState.

          All this leaves Texas with few options. They can go independent (and deal with all the problems that causes in terms of scheduling and finding a home for its Olympic sports) or perhaps make a deal to join a super conference. Do they make nice with Larry Scott and the Pac 12? Do they talk to Mike Slive and the SEC? What about Jim Delany and the Big Ten (and Notre Dame)? UT could also try to keep the Big XII together, but with what kind of membership if two (or more) members leave?

          The Longhorn Network has three partners–the University of Texas, IMG and ESPN. Will it be in the best interests of those parties for the LHN to go forward as outlined in the original contract if the Big XII implodes or college athletics starts organizing itself around super conferences? If the answer is no and everything’s negotiable, then in the end, UT could end up almost anywhere and the LHN could become the Pac 16 Network Texas or a regional subsidiary of the Big Ten Network.

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          1. Eric

            I think it might actually last for awhile. I’ll admit to not thinking the Aggies would be SEC bound, but Texas and Oklahoma are still going to be pretty valuable properties and the amount of mouths to feeds is now smaller than the other BCS conference by a decent percent. I think the money will work and you’ll see it last at least awhile.

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  112. swesleyh

    GAS 1958, which of these is out of place?

    Tuscaloosa
    Fatteville
    Baton Rouge
    College Station
    Madison

    Not a knock against the Big Ten (BiG) just would never work.

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    1. gas1958

      I guess I’m glad to have gotten everyone’s sarcasm juices flowing.
      BTW, “Fayetteville” is the correct spelling, something even an Aggie
      would know.

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  113. Mike

    Matt Hayes of the Sporting News

    If the SEC can’t get Oklahoma—a Big 12 source told Sporting News last month that both the Texas A&M and Oklahoma board of regents had approved a move to the SEC in the summer of 2010 before Beebe saved the league—the SEC likely stays in the south for expansion. Forget about Florida State, Miami or Georgia Tech. Current SEC schools in those states won’t allow it. Virginia Tech and Missouri would be secondary considerations.

    That means Louisville and Clemson are at the top of the list. With either addition, the SEC adds programs not afraid to spend money to get bigger (have you seen Louisville’s NBA arena and Clemson’s SEC-style football stadium?). Adding Louisville would bring the league a major basketball power, and adding Clemson would strengthen the overall sports program of the conference.

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          2. Brian

            That article amuses me. With all the complaining about the LHN, here is Mack Brown also complaining because they want actual access for their $300M.

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    2. Richard

      FSU, Miami, & GTech wouldn’t be allowed, but Clemson would? Seems that Hayes needs to study geography. Amongst ACC schools in SEC states, there’s little reason to prefer Clemson over FSU.

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    1. Eric

      Maybe both UT and ESPN would be best served by a name change in the network. It can still keep most of the Longhorn content, but name the channel ESPN Texas. The Longhorns might have to give up a little extra control of the channel too, but the money could probably still be made.

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      1. Brian

        The NCAA gets to interpret their own rules. A name change in an attempt to work around the rules won’t fly. It would have to be a truly independent network, and thus couldn’t coincidentally only cover UT stuff and UT can’t have firing rights.

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        1. Eric

          I’m proposing a little more than a name change, but I don’t think it takes much more to make this impossible for the NCAA to rule on. How much do they really need to change to be any different than the example Frank used with Sun Sports? I don’t think % of content matters as long as its ESPN’s call what to put on (could be UT or otherwise). Texas probably would have to less say in a few things like airing programs that don’t bring in money and maybe their say in announcers. At the end of the day though, the transition of the channel from a purely Longhorn one to one that is Texas in general but has a big contract with the Longhorns isn’t that great.

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    1. bullet

      Interesting that it doesn’t allow any HS programming on conference or school networks, not just sports events. I guess they were trying to stop graduation ceremonies of recruits, but it actually cuts out a lot of things. UIL in Texas sponsors a one act play competition and debate that might have made the LHN (they’ve got a lot of time to fill).

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    2. greg

      This is becoming an annual raise for the B12 teams left behind. Everyone thinks they should bolt for the BE, but the B12 distributions are gonna equal B10/SEC soon enough.

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      1. ccrider55

        At some point the Big 12 will have trouble filling the number of games that are contracted for, and/or those remaining games may no longer rise to the level of interest that the contract was intended to cover. Will ESPN and FOX be willing to continue funding the Maginot Line?

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      2. frug

        Actually, if an A&M left ESPN might actually cut their payment. They didn’t penalize the league last time but I doubt they will get that deal again.

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        1. bullet

          They won’t have enough games to meet the Fox contract with a 9 team league. They would drop from 45 to 36 conference games. I find the 2012 like some people are saying as being unrealistic. This couldn’t be official until sometime in September. That’s a pretty short time span for everyone, B12, SEC, CBS, ESPN.

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        2. m (Ag)

          I think they’ll get a cut, but it will likely be about the amount that A&M was supposed to make, so the other schools won’t lose anything on network distributions. With the school likely having to pay some kind of exit fee, they’ll actually make more money in the short term.

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  117. Brian

    http://www.bigtennetwork.com/generic/sports/football/1999-Big-Ten-Legends-Leaders

    BTN and a partner are simulating what might have happened had NE joined the B10 15 years ago. Every day they post another simulated season.

    So far:
    1996 – OSU beats NE, 20 – 17
    1997 – OSU beats MI, 37 – 34
    1998 – OSU beats NE, 34 – 17
    1999 – NE beats WI, 20 – 17

    A couple of things are clear:
    1. Computers can’t account for the John Cooper effect
    2. Computers clearly think MI was better than NE in 1997 (NE went 5-3 in conference)

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    1. schwarm

      Nebraska went 13-0 in ’97, demolishing four ranked teams (with a narrow and controverial escape against Missou). In the OB they defeated #3 Tenn QB’ed by Payton Manning.
      And they would have gone 5-3 in the Big 10.

      Ummm, OK. Remind me, what was the Big 10’s bowl record that year?

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      1. Brian

        You may want to hold off on your comparisons.

        The B10 was 2-5 in bowls and all 7 were against ranked opponents. The B10 won the 2 games it was supposed to win, including beating a ranked B12 team.

        The B12 was 2-3 in bowls and all 5 were against ranked opponents. The B12 won the 2 games it was supposed to win.

        So the major difference is that the B10 had 7 bowl teams to 5 for the B12 (details below).

        Final AP regular season rankings used below:

        B10
        #1 MI beat #8 WSU (Rose)
        #9 OSU lost to #4 FSU (Sugar)
        #11 PSU lost to #6 UF (Citrus)
        #17 PU beat #24 OkSU (Alamo)
        #25 MSU lost to #18 UW (Aloha)
        WI lost to #10 UGA (Outback)
        IA lost to #16 ASU (Sun)

        B12
        #2 NE beat #3 TN (Orange)
        #10 KSU beat #14 Syracuse (Fiesta)
        #19 MO lost to #18 CSU (Holiday)
        #20 TAMU lost to #5 UCLA (Cotton)
        #24 OkSU lost to #17 PU (Alamo)

        As for comparing the schedules of the two teams (AP ranks on game day):

        MI played 7 ranked teams (3 out of final poll – CO, IA, WI):
        #8 CO – great OOC opponent in first game, 27-3
        #15 IA – solid B10 opponent at home, 28-24
        @ #15 MSU – at solid B10 opponent and rival, 23-7
        @ #2 PSU – at great B10 opponent, 34-8
        @ #23 WI – at solid B10 opponent, 26-16
        #4 OSU – great B10 opponent at home, 20-14
        vs #8 WSU – Rose Bowl, 21-16

        NE played 4 ranked teams (1 more in final poll – MO):
        @ #2 UW – great OOC opponent, 27-14
        #17 KSU – solid B12 opponent at home, 56-26
        vs #14 TAMU – CCG, 54-15
        vs #3 TN – Orange Bowl, 42-17

        Also of note, NE beat CO 27-24 at CO while MI beat CO at home 27-3.

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        1. Brian

          Please note, I’m not saying the computers were right. But using bowl record that year is a terrible way to compare the teams, and doesn’t make the point you wanted to make anyway.

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          1. schwarm

            It does make one slight point – there were no other elite teams in the Big 10 that year, so UNL going 5-3 seems unlikely.

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          2. Brian

            PSU was pre-season #1 and didn’t lose until hosting MI in November. They were still #4 when they didn’t show up for their last game against MSU. That’s very good if not elite.

            OSU lost at PSU and at MI, so they lost at #2, at #1 and in a bowl to #4. I’d still consider them very good if not elite.

            As I noted below, they said NE lost to MI (elite), OSU (elite or near-elite) and IA (makes no sense).

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        2. schwarm

          I’m not arguing UM vs. UNL, although I think the teams were comparable, so 5-3 I question.
          The three UM opponents that you list as “great” finished: unranked, 12th, and 16th.

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          1. Brian

            I gave equal opportunity. Top 10 I called great, top 25 I called solid. I used game day rankings because the outcome of that game may have changed the rest of the season. At the time, the writers thought they were great.

            The computers say NE lost to OSU (a top 5 team that could win any game except against MI or in a bowl), MI and IA (odd, but they had IA at 7-1 while in reality they went 4-4).

            I think MI had a better D, Nebraska a better O, and either team could have won. I think MI might have played a harder schedule, but that doesn’t make them a better team.

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          2. schwarm

            I put more weight in final rankings… hard to judge a team based on a partial schedule.
            Sagarin didn’t put any other Big 10 team in the final top 10, like AP. I think UM did play more 10-30 ranked teams, and UNL would have likely tripped up against one or more. I like their chances, though, against anyone head to head in a CCG or bowl game.

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          3. Brian

            Final rankings have their problems. What if someone important got hurt later in the season? What if the team lost focus after losing the big game? What if other factors impacted the rest of the season?

            Neither way is perfect, but I opted for the “educated” opinion at that time of how good a team was.

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  118. Phil

    Based on the idea that Oklahoma may be tied to Oklahoma State, and that the SEC and Pac 12 might balk at OSU, does it make sense for the Big East to invite both Oklahoma schools?

    When you stop laughing, hear me out-

    -a CBS writer this week said the BE turned down an ESPN offer of $12mm per fb school, meaning they must be hearing numbers from someone (NBC) well north of that.

    -It gives the politicians that support OSU a way to save them as opposed to letting OU go to the SEC or Pac 12 by themselves. Ending up out of the BCS would be almost death for a program like OSU.

    -OU would be joining a conference they would feel they could dominate with an easy road to the BCS bowls each year-

    -along with TCU, a few others(the Kansas schools) would make a nice West division and travel wouldn’t be that crazy. I guess actually one or two of the others would have to be Texas schools since OU recruits there so much.

    It’s out there I know, but if OU CAN’T leave OSU and the Big 12 really blows up, it would give them something to think about.

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      1. Phil

        As I mentioned in the beginning, my idea was totally based on “if the SEC and Pac 12 balked at adding OSU idea (the Pac 10 would have added OSU last year, but that was in a package where they were getting OU AND Texas).

        Basically, my thinking was, if Texas politicians could get Baylor in a BCS conference, could the Oklahoma politicians force OU to take OSU with them to the Big East instead of OU leaving them behind and joining the SEC or Pac 12?

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        1. Richard

          I’m fairly certain the Pac would take OkSt. to get OU even if the SEC doesn’t. Remember that the Pac lacks true national brands (besides USC). You can argue that Oregon is getting up there, but I think that lasts only as long as Phil Knight is alive.

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    2. cutter

      If recollection serves me correctly, the Pac 10 was quite ready to invite both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to become part of a Pac 16 Conference last year. I suspect Larry Scott would readily make that invitation again a year later if it served the Pac 12’s interests.

      The SEC, OTOH, doesn’t seem to have any desire to bring Oklahoma State to the table. They may change their mind if OU does again seriously entertain thoughts of going to the SEC. But the SEC’s successful expansion to 14 or 16 teams might not predicate them needing OU.

      The Big East also isn’t exactly a model of stability right now. Why would OU and Ok State go from one floundering conference to another with an entirely uncertain future that can’t decide if it wants to be football-centric or basketball-centric.

      If Oklahoma and Oklahoma State were to join the Pac 14 or Pac 16, they’re looking at playing a better slate of football teams than what the Big East could provide. Oklahoma v. USC is one hell of a lot more compelling than OU v. West Virginia or Pittsburgh. Heck, outside of TCU, none of the Big East schools are in Oklahoma’s normal recruiting areas. Do you think OU would have a tough time selling the idea of playing the likes of Connecticut or Southern Florida to some recruit in west Texas? I strongly suspect they would.

      The bottom line is this–I don’t think OU or Oklahoma State is going to the Big East. Depending on how things work out, I could also see Texas Christian’s tenure in the BE being rather short because they’ll be extremely valuable to a truncated Big East or the Pac 16. Heck, who knows? The SEC might just as well invite TCU along with Texas A&M to become the 13th and 14th members of the conference and get two programs within the Texas state boundaries.

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    3. bullet

      Just curious. Why are people saying SEC would not take Ok. St. in order to get OU? I don’t remember seeing anyone claim a source for that belief.

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      1. ccrider55

        My beliefs no nor need sources. 🙂

        Because of the well founded belief that they don’t need to do a 2 for 1? It/they bring one brand but really no new recruiting territory or market, as they achieve both with aTm, and still have 3 openings for other targets/regions?

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          3. bullet

            FSU has turned them down before and come out and said recently how glad they were NOT to be in the SEC. VT is a possibility, but I just don’t see them leaving the ACC without a lot of $ to back it up. They want to be with UVA, UNC, etc. They worked for 50 years to get it.

            So I think FSU and VT both is very close to a zero possibility. Saw a VT board suggesting that the ACC was THE elite FCS conference, not the Big 10, since, in addition to UNC/UVA/Duke, they had a lot of small private schools that didn’t do massive research and so weren’t AAU, but were still excellent schools (I’m not agreeing, just pointing out the significance of the academic and cultural ties of the ACC).

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      3. If the SEC took A&M, OU and Okie State, it would be obliged to take a fourth western team, probably Missouri, because otherwise Alabama or Auburn would have to be in split divisions. On the other hand, a 2-2 west/east split gives the SEC more flexibility. Virginia Tech, West Virginia and N.C. State would be legit candidates (as would Clemson and Florida State if they could overcome in-state opposition). Slive might be content to let OU and OSU head to the Pac, take Missouri to partner with A&M, then try for the best fit he can from ACC candidates and WVU. (Forget Louisville.)

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        1. Richard

          Well, they could put FSU in the west in either case (which, according to internet rumor, was UF’s stipulation for allowing FSU in last time). FSU in the west with both AL schools in the east would be mighty weird however (though no more so than the Legends and Leaders split).

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          1. bullet

            You have to remember that Tallahassee is way out west pretty close to where GA,AL and FL meet and about the same distance from Auburn as it is from Gainesville. And its closer to 5 of the west schools than it is to UK, TN and Vandy. And even if Baton Rouge is a little further as the crow flies, its easier to get to Baton Rouge straight down I-10 than to get to Athens or Columbia.

            If superconferences come about, I’ve thought South Florida actually has a shot as an SEC west member, despite the common perception that they would be left behind. The SEC West schools are dependent on Florida talent and they would play UF much less frequently in a 16 team league. With 16 teams, I think the ACC and SEC both need two Florida teams.

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          1. I could see the Oklahoma schools playing the SEC against the Pac-12 in order to get the best deal, and perhaps persuading Texas to rework its LHN deal to assimilate into a Pac network.

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          3. Richard

            Brian,

            As I pointed out above, they could move both AL schools east and put FSU in the west. The geography wouldn’t work perfectly, but supposedly UF had that as a stipulation for taking in FSU. In that case, we likely would see UF-FSU remain as an OOC game.

            Of course, if it’s VTech, that plan wouldn’t work. Likely Vandy moves west in that case, however (and the east would be absolutely loaded).

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          5. cutter

            If the SEC is reorganized in an east-west fashion with those schools, then we’re looking at these two eight-team divisons:

            East – Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech

            West – Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

            On paper, the Eastern Division does look stronger than the Western Division. I can’t see the SEC going thru what the Big Ten did in order to have parity between the two divsiions, so this might be the setup that would take place.

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          6. Brian

            cutter,

            Your divisions are:

            “East – Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia Tech

            West – Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt”

            You say that the East is too strong. It’s a pretty simple fix to leave Alabama in the West and Vandy in the East like they shold be. Otherwise they have to move VT West, because nobody else is going.

            I think they’ll find the geography challenging with that group. It may be worth it to take MO or TT just to avoid the fighting.

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          7. Richard

            Brian:

            ‘Bama would have 2 eastern rivals in that case (AU & Tenn.)

            That wouldn’t work. I think we see Vandy move west.

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          8. bullet

            Alabama in the W and Auburn and TN in the East doesn’t work in a 16 team league because those are its two biggest rivals. They would need a 9 game schedule and not play anyone else.
            Moving Auburn E doesn’t really work in a 14 team configuration. You can’t do 6-2 fixed-0 rotating and even if the SEC was willing, 6-2-1 means you only get teams in the other division twice in ten years. You could do 4 divisions with two switching each year (4+3 and 4+3), but quads didn’t work well in the WAC and the logical pairings wouldn’t work. AU,UGA,UF as a group A of 3 vs. AL,MS,MSU as group B would not be balanced (2 years Group A with other eastern schools, then 2 years Group B would be with TN,VN,UK,USC). And pairing TN,VN,AU doesn’t solve the Alabama cross division rivalry game problem.

            And even moving AL and AU to the existing 6 team east would be a disaster. The E would just be too strong. Every school would be hurt.

            A 16 team league would make the SEC unstable. And a 14 team only works if they add 1 team in the east and 1 in the west. Or if Alabama and Tennessee give up their rivalry. I think its more likely they both leave for the ACC than for that to happen.

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          9. Brian

            All I did was offer cutter an obvious solution to his problem of the East being too strong. I didn’t say it would happen or that it would be my choice. That’s why I said I think geography would be a problem. They probably should follow the B10 or ACC model rather than split east/west. Regardless, they have to face the fact that expansion means hurting some rivalries. I’m not sure how much sympathy AL will garner on that point.

            The bigger problem, IMO, is that they’ll have to go to at least 9 games and maybe 10 to keep it a conference. They already complain about how hard 8 games are, just wait until 9 or 10 gets introduced.

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          10. Richard

            Brian:

            . . . or they could still keep 8 games and essentially have neither division play schools in the other. In the SEC, that isn’t so weird a concept, since back when they had a 6-game league slate, they played almost half the teams in their league only twice every 8 years.

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          11. Brian

            Richard,

            Why would the MS schools accept being cut off from most of their most common opponents? In the the past 50 years, Ole Miss has played LSU and MsSU every year.

            Next most common:
            Vandy – 48
            Memphis – 43
            GA – 39
            AL – 37
            TN – 35
            AR – 33
            Tulane – 29
            Auburn – 29

            History against the newbies since ’61:
            TAMU – 2 (’75, ’80)
            OU – 1 (’99)
            OkSU – 2 (’00, ’09)
            VT – 1 (’68)
            FSU – 1 (’61)

            Do you think Ole Miss wants a schedule of TAMU, OU and OkSU every year with AL (and GA, TN, AU) twice every 16 years?

            Why not pair the schools so everybody gets teams from everywhere, and have the pairs play as crossovers? Proper matching can keep rivalries:

            A: AL, TN, TAMU, OkSU, MS, GA, UF, VU
            B: AU, KY, LSU, OU, MS St, SC, VT, ARK

            or, with FSU:

            A: AL, TN, TAMU, OkSU, MS, SC, FSU, VU
            B: AU, KY, LSU, OU, MS St, GA, UF, ARK

            Obviously you could flip some of the pairs to adjust for balance or rivalries.

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  121. Bamatab

    So can we now admit that there were/is two misconceptions in regards to the SEC?

    The first being that the SEC would not be able to renegotiate their current tv deals if they expanded. I think it should now be obvious that the SEC will be renegotiating their tv contract shortly after after they finish their raids.

    The second being that the SEC was/is unwilling to “upset the apple cart” of the college football world in order to keep the status quo, even if the rewards outweigh the risks. This misconception flies directly in the face of the SEC’s history. I figured that when the Pac 12 announced their new tv contract, that the SEC would not be willing to sit idolly by and fall behind the curve in regards to tv revenue when they hold the best product on the college football market.

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      1. duffman

        To be fair, it is still correct, because TAMU is the aggressor, not the SEC, so Slive has kept his word in that sense. I am more surprised at the timing, as it is after the fiscal year and weeks before football starts. TAMU has a ranked team, so why stir the pot now with schools you may be leaving behind?

        I still think Scott should have made a play for OU and oSu by themselves, as by not doing so you have left OU the SEC option.

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        1. ccrider55

          Who says that play is not being made? Some are able to keep things quieter than others.
          I’m not saying it has, but there is as much evidence for as there is against.

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        2. bullet

          I think its pretty clear noone has seriously talked to CBS and ESPN yet. Frank is right. SEC can’t just tear up their contracts. CBS and ESPN have to be able to see value. We don’t know if that is the case. And we still don’t know for sure if the Aggies are going to apply and the SEC Presidents and ADs have clearly not yet decided to accept any applications. One rumour was that there would be a Saturday meeting of the SEC Presidents and ADs (not sure if that was in one of the posted articles or not).

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          1. bullet

            I think the SEC ADs are good and will think carefully about divisions before deciding to expand when there is no compelling reason to. The division issue ended up crashing the WAC 16. They didn’t have a good split. The SEC understands the value of rivalries and the need to keep those huge stadiums full.

            I’ve saw an OU commentator saying OU saw no need to go into the SEC. They were doing just fine where they were. The SEC might become too strong. Its the same thing with those who think the Big 10 should go to 14 with Texas and Notre Dame. If you have too many kings (6 of 14), in about 10 years you end up with a couple of kings and a bunch of nobodies. Or maybe a whole bunch of nobodies (see the current NFL).

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          2. John

            I find it ironic that in 2010 Mizzou was considered to be whoring themselves to the Big Ten and became the whipping boy of a few media sites, despite the fact that outside of a single remark by their gov, they said virtually nothing publicly other than “we’re proud members of the Big XII.” Now its 2011 and A&M has clearly been stompin & whinning to get out of the Big XII & into the SEC but nobody is talking down on them with the same vitriol. Curious, but I suspect it has something to do with probably having an SEC offer in hand rather than just hoping for an offer like Mizzou. But still, A&M’s done far more to flame these fires than MU ever did. Fact.

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          3. Brian

            John,

            As you say, part of it is having an offer rather than hoping. Another part is the LHN plans have stirred up the situation enough to make the move more understandable. I think a third part is a lot of people thinking MO was getting too big for their britches by trying to move up to the big boy table without deserving it. The fourth part, to me, is the motivation. TAMU has made it very clear this is all about sports and UT. With MO it looked more like academic elitism, which always ticks off people, and a money grab.

            I’m not saying those perception were correct or fair, but that was the sense I got from the media.

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        3. Brian

          duffman,

          I think the timing is simply a matter of striking while the iron is hot. A lot of fans wanted this last year. The added insult of the LHN plans has stoked even more outrage and makes TAMU seem more like a victim than the aggressor. It has apparently created an environment where TAMU can get away with moving without being penalized, and that wasn’t true before. If TAMU waits until May, the fans will have cooled off and the school might not be able to do this.

          So if this is what they have really wanted for a while and think is best for them, then the LHN has finally given them enough cover to do it.

          If they are reacting emotionally and haven’t studied this in detail, it may come back to bite them in the ass.

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    3. Brian

      I’ll agree that a lot of people had those misconceptions, but I wasn’t one of them.

      I think the TV renegotiation has always been a disagreement about how much they can renegotiate their deal, not if they can. If push comes to shove, they can’t leave ESPN and CBS right now I don’t think. So what people have been arguing is how much room they have to negotiate.

      I totally agree on your second point. The SEC sees the rest of CFB as teams to fill out their schedule, not as colleagues. Hell, SEC schools will screw each other over, let alone outsiders.

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      1. greg

        A misconception that seems to exist on the other side is that the SEC will WIN any renegotiation. They aren’t guaranteed huge money in a renegotiation.

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    1. bullet

      I’m going to disagree on 2 points. I think it would be a terrible move for A&M to go to the SEC. There is the separation theory that TCU uses. They might do better vs. UT if they had something else distinctive to offer (as if the two schools cultures weren’t enough!). But the reality is that A&M only competes and UT and OU for recruits and they get plenty of talent. Anyone who ever watches them sees that. I think they would be hurt because they would open the door to SEC schools recruiting Texas. Missouri, KSU and Kansas don’t compete with UT/OU/A&M for the very top athletes, but Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida might. A&M’s talent level would drop just as they go into a conference that is somewhat more competitive. And that doesn’t even get into the blood sport recruiting techniques. The SWC scandals sent a lot of the very top athletes out of state in the 80s and that sped the demise of the SWC. In the late 70s and early 80s, the SWC competed for the spot as the top conference in the country. By 1990, the SWC was clearly behind the Big8,SEC,B10,P10,BE and even the ACC. The Big 12 has pretty much locked the doors on the top Texas talent. UT/OU/A&M compete for the top group. The rest of the Big 12 gets nearly all the rest that they want. Then everybody else comes in (there are always a few who have out of state ties or who just want to leave the region, but that’s a small number).

      I also disagree about OU and OSU being linked. That flies in direct contrast to everything anybody in Oklahoma said last summer. Its also only in the last couple of weeks I’ve seen anyone claim OU was going to choose the SEC over the Pac 10. I don’t have anything other than public information on that, but I think that’s just SEC chest thumping. Again, that flies in the face of everything OU said last summer (and A&M fans as well who claimed they personally stopped the Pac 16).

      I do think there are a lot of SEC fans who don’t want to expand into Texas. East of the Mississippi, Southerners don’t consider Texas part of the South.

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      1. Eric

        I agree that this is going to be harder on A&M long term. Personally I think this is based way too much on short term discontent and that there is going to be a large group of Aggies who regret this move 5 years from now.

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        1. bullet

          One interesting comment in one of the articles (may have been Dennis Dodd) was the issue was the relationship between ESPN and Texas, which is more fundamental than televising conference games or HS games. The only way that goes away as a concern is if the Big 12 chooses someone other than ABC or ESPN for their tier 1 rights in 2015.

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    1. @Aggie Nation – I would disagree with that characterization. I have nothing against A&M at all. In fact, I’ve stated many times that A&M is a very valuable school. That’s a separate issue from whether they could logistically move to the SEC.

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  125. ccrider55

    Sounds like it’s actually happening. However, last year we had a P16 and aTm in the SEC on a Friday night. Monday morning the B12 was still standing.
    You can run a marathon for 26 miles…but you still have 385 yards to reach the finish.

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  126. mushroomgod

    I’m always skeptical when anyone on this board tries to make the argument that conference A or B or event A or B will “force” ND to join the BIG…………BUT………..IF A@m and FSU joined the SEC, might not the Domers be concerned about the concentration of football power in the SEC? The BIG can’t come close to matching those additions w/o ND…..do the Domers really want the rednecks running the NCAA football show?? Would they not be concerned about recruiting in TX and the South?

    I know none of this changes the Domers’ antipathy toward the BIG, but it might be time for the grownups to consider that ND might have more power within the BIG than outside it……….

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  127. duffman

    Some observations from my calm and happy place:

    #1 If this deal is in the works, it is still cooking and may be closer to raw than edible

    #2 No matter what is said, any “will happen” is premature before the BoR meets on the 22nd

    #3 here is the link for the next meeting
    http://www.tamus.edu/regents/meetingmaterials/special/

    #4 While others run around, perhaps this is the time to revisit and revise Frank’s original chart

    #5 Similarly, mrsec commented that PSU said his post (similar to Franks) drew comment from the PSU administrative folks that it was similar to their own methodology of the actual process

    (an actual merger of the two might be the best avenue right now) with an update courtesy of numbers from the Dosh links of late

    #6 Go back to Franks original points
    a) think like a college president
    b) teams added must bring value via dollars or brand (11+1=13 was the math I think)

    #7 Call me cynical, but it seems like hype enters the weekend, and facts exit it
    last june was an excellent example

    #8 Messages from bloggers excite us, but nothing tops messages from college presidents

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    1. duffman

      ps, If the SEC school AD’s are the next step, where are they all now, and when would such a “combined” meeting take place now that the media days are over? We have a concrete date for the BoR, so where is the SEC equivalent?

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        1. @duffman – I kept telling people that this would happen. Maybe A&M can eventually convince the politicians to let them go to the SEC, but this was NEVER to going to slip under the legislative radar.

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          1. If you have an Orangebloods subscription, by the way, there’s some very interesting quotes from Rep. Branch (who chairs that higher education committee. The key one for me:

            Branch said there are really two points of interest that are critical to the state’s view of a possible move by Texas A&M to the SEC.

            “Part of that goes to you don’t want another major conference coming undone by the action of one,” Branch said. “So there’s two parts to this. One, is this a good move for Texas A&M?

            “And, more importantly, from our vantage point would there be a negative consequence to the University of Texas or Texas Tech University and even our private schools like Baylor – what effect it could have on them?”

            http://texas.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=500&tid=161303477&mid=161303477&sid=902&style=2

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          3. bullet

            Note Branch is an SMU alum, so he’s probably pretty sensitive about what can happen. In addition, he sponsored the Tier I funding bill, which creates a fund to try to bring other Texas schools up to Tier I. The eligible schools include Houston, Texas Tech, UT Arlington, UT Dallas, UT San Antonio, North Texas and UTEP. So one concern is whether this would negatively impact Tech’s chances of getting to tier I and whether this might lead to superconferences which will hinder Houston, UTEP, UTSA, UTA and North Texas (not saying sports make a difference, but it does impact visibility and can impact alumni involvement). UTD presumably wouldn’t be impacted.

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        3. CarnegieNitt

          Does anyone know what exactly can they do? The whole legislature isn’t in session and I was under the impression it would take the full legislature vote to stop the move.

          Also:

          http://blog.mysanantonio.com/aggies/2011/08/aggies-out-uh-in-for-the-big-12/

          “Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe has told Texas A&M that Texas holds the key to the long-term future of the Big 12, and that the Big 12 would survive without the Aggies, according to an A&M official.

          The Big 12 also believes the University of Houston would be a viable candidate to replace the Aggies, the A&M official said. All signs point to the Aggies bolting the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference.”

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          1. Even if the Legislature isn’t set to meet again in session until January 2013, it remains active, including regularly holding hearings like the one scheduled for next week. And you can be damn sure that if the Powers That Be within the Legislature don’t want A&M to move, A&M isn’t going to move, regardless of the timing.

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          2. Michael in Raleigh

            Translation: “We’re fine without you, A&M, as long as we have the school that you cite as your reason for leaving. And we think a school that draws under 30,000 per game would be a sufficient replacement for you.”

            I’m not buying that. Dan Beebe may not be the greatest commissioner in college sports, but there’s no way that he is that dumb. The blog’s author is grossly misquoting him.

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          3. CarnegieNitt

            So does anyone have incite into how Texas politicians will stop this indirectly if the Legislature isn’t meeting to allow a direct vote? Will it be back room arm twisting or something else that prompts (forces?) Gov. Perry to call legislators back for a vote? Just curious to see how this eventually all does not go down.

            In any case, the more I read here, the more it appears that I can go back to ignoring most of this and focusing on regular off-season college football (non) news like recruiting and JoePa’s health.

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          4. bullet

            They can’t directly do anything without the governor calling a special session, which he won’t.

            But they can make it clear what will happen when they are back in session. That could include cuts in funding. Perhaps worse, they could add schools to A&M’s portion of the Permanent University Fund, which a lot of schools would like. Now A&M has actively added schools to get more clout politically (you think the B12 is a mess, you should see the governance of Texas universities-UT system, A&M system, UH system, TT system-Tech and its medical school, Texas state university system and about a half dozen independent state schools-plus community colleges), but there are limits before it starts being a drain. They likely wouldn’t be able to get the votes to take A&M out of the PUF (which would require a constitutional amendment), but they could do some restrictions on their use and spread some portion of the wealth around.

            As Hopkins says, A&M will have to listen if the legislature doesn’t want them to move.

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  128. lobills

    Just re-read the “Super Death Star Conf.” article and surprisingly that’s still somewhat viable. Although in modified and condensed form. Delany has been eerily quiet this entire week as the Texas A&M story has developed. And one thing we can be sure of is he isn’t sitting idly by in the Chicago burbs twiddling his thumbs. To me the end game all along in Delany’s mind is the B14.

    The question IMO Delany has asked himself is, “how can I get both Notre Dame and Texas?” The answer is you have to get both to get either. A truly Machiavellian approach would be to attempt to completely destroy the B12 but not look like the guy that did it. How is this accomplished? You have to piss A&M off enough to jump ship. Hello, LHN. Goodbye Aggies. Now this frees Texas up to look out for their own best interests. The question is then asked, “how is it feasible for the LHN and the BTN to coexist?” Some have mentioned in this thread Texas maintaining the LHN and keeping all revenue while being shut out completely of BTN payouts. That’s possible I suppose. But, more likely in my opinion is that in the event of Texas joining the B1G the B1G could in their next contract negotiation with ESPN negotiate a new deal AND dissolve the LHN contract. Sure in the short term their might be some lost revenues for the conference, but really they would be taking a slighter smaller increase in payouts per school. Over the long haul the B1G would more than make up any short term losses both from future ESPN/Fox tv contracts and/or BTN revenues.

    Also, if Texas were to join the B1G you can be sure of 2 things. 1) The B12 would be toast and 2) there would be so much restructuring of the remaining conferences that at that point Notre Dame will have to join the B1G because of the dramatic landscape change to the sport. Of course they want to remain in independent, but if mega conferences are put in place they would very likely be unable to vie for a national title. At that point resistance from the alumni would subside enough to make the move to the B1G.

    Will any of this happen? Who the hell knows, but I think this is Delany’s game plan. For the B1G if they were to acquire just Texas and ND there is absolutely no need to go further than 14 teams. Let the SEC16 and PAC16 and whoever else go there. The B1G wouldn’t have to and the end result would be a per team payout on all television monies no other conference could ever match.

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    1. Unless you can somehow get Notre Dame and Texas to buy into the collective Big Ten philosophy — something that runs counter to each school’s “we’re bigger than the game” mentality — their entrance to the Big Ten simply isn’t happening. Delany’s best alternative is to bring in the core of the ACC as a four-team unit; individually, none of them bring exceptional value with the possible exception of North Carolina, but collectively as a unit, they’re a home run.

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  129. This scenario might seem a bit Machiavellian, but it makes perfect sense:

    * Slive announces Texas A&M and Missouri will join the SEC in 2013, but adds expansion isn’t done yet.

    * Later in 2011, Slive and Delany announce a simultaneous expansion to 16 each by raiding the ACC — the Big Ten brings in Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and Duke, while the SEC takes in Virginia Tech and N.C. State. This allows Delany to bring in four institutions that boost the Big Ten academic/research/all-around athletic profile (especially in men’s basketball, as the newcomers have won five of the past 11 NCAA titles), and the SEC also gains a foothold in two growing mid-Atlantic states. Moreover, the ACC is decimated, severely weakening the likes of Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Miami (a major benefit for South Carolina, Georgia and Florida). A joint raid on the ACC prevents either Slive or Delany as being seen as a singular villain. And the ACC, without a marketable football brand, is in its way as vulnerable as the Big 12, and both are on the second rung of conference value, behind the SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12, but considerably ahead of the Big East. Moving simultaneously lessens the Tech/UVa and State/UNC breakup problems.

    * The Pac-12 now swoops in for expansion, taking the tandem of Oklahoma and Okie State, along with Texas Tech and a 16th school. It could be Texas if UT agrees to assimilate its Longhorn Network into the Pac network; if it won’t accept Scott’s take-it-or-leave-it offer, Texas Christian ditches the Big East and gets the nod instead.

    * What about the leftovers? The six ACC remnants join the Big East football members and what’s left of the Big 12 (assuming Texas then goes independent, it’s Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and Baylor) into one megaconference or two smaller leagues, one perhaps a new incarnation of the ACC.

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    1. duffman

      umm, vincent I think I have been suggesting this all along 😉 but never thought of it as Machiavellian 🙂

      My difference was each school gets 3 ACC

      B1G gets 3 + Pitt / ND
      SEC gets 3 + TAMU
      PAC gets 3 B12, and holds out for UT, but takes a final B12 team to get to 12

      I could see 2 8 – 12 team scraps built along the lines of your east west issue that must play each other at the end of the season when the Big 3 play their CCG’s

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      1. Would the six ACC emigres you envision be the same as mine? I can’t see any of the Big Ten-bound group going to the SEC instead, and if not, I can’t see the SEC picking off a third ACC member without alienating either South Carolina, Georgia or Florida.

        And in my scenario, Texas Christian is only a fallback if Texas says no. Kansas is a possibility if it could break away from K-State, and TCU’s recent Rose Bowl success would make it more palatable to Pac members than Baptist Baylor.

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        1. duffman

          I think there are leaners, which is where we may disagree, but my short list looks like this

          B1G = UVA / Duke
          SEC = NCST / VT

          MD and UNC flip flop depending on if UNC and NC ST go as a set. If they go as a set they wind up in the SEC, and the B1G gets MD. If they do not, the B1G gets UNC and MD goes to the SEC. I can see the B1G not taking 4 ACC just so they could get ND and / or Pitt.

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          1. If State is taken care of in the SEC, it won’t have to be linked to UNC any more than UVa and Tech have to go as a unit. The SEC knows that UNC won’t join for cultural reasons, and it wouldn’t be interested in Duke. Making a raid simultaneously with the Big Ten makes it easier for all concerned.

            As for Maryland, it has no interest in the SEC, and it’d be an even worse cultural fit than UNC would.

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          2. Michael in Raleigh

            Amazing how a year ago, the ACC seemed like it was secure with a $155M/year deal. Now, it’s chump change. John Swofford must be pulling his hair out. I hope the ACC sticks together, regardless.

            Maybe if some big nonconference W’s can be picked up (Clemson over Auburn, Clemson over SC, FSU over OU, FSU over UF, Miami over tOSU, Maryland over WVU), then perception will change and conference members will feel more secure with themselves together as a unit. It can’t change the TV contract, but perhaps some victories could fend off the Big Ten and SEC. I hope.

            And that’s nothing against either conference.

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          3. @Michael in Raleigh – Of course, think of it this way: if the SEC has the ability to effectively open up its TV contracts simply by expanding (which is something that I dispute, but I digress), then the ACC is in the exact same position. Dennis Dodd stated yesterday that ALL of the AQ conferences have “look-in” provisions in their TV contracts. The SEC’s TV contract isn’t unique in this regard (which has been my basic point all along). To the extent that expansion is a way to take advantage of rising TV rights fees that didn’t exist a year ago, the ACC actually has more incentive to expand than anyone else.

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          4. Richard

            Duff,

            If the B10 can’t land UNC, I don’t see them taking any of the ACC core four. They _might_ raid Miami and/or FSU (maybe GTech, but I think that would be a bad move), but if they can’t get UNC, there’s no point to taking Maryland.

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          5. Michael, as long as the ACC has no inherent football brand value — and even after expansion, that’s been the case, although I think Urban Meyer’s arrival in Gainesville seriously hurt both Miami and FSU — it’s a vulnerable conference with underperforming members. When Maryland backed expansion in 2003, it had no idea that eight years later, its athletic department would be awash in red ink.

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          6. RedDenver

            @Frank the Tank While the SEC might not be able to completely tear up the ESPN TV contract, I’d be just as surprised if ESPN didn’t offer market value for adding A&M. If ESPN does not, the SEC might be able to either withhold the A&M games from the current contract or open bidding on the extra games generated per year. The SEC could even start its own network using 3rd tier rights of the conference members (and perhaps 1st/2nd tier rights from A&M). I suspect ESPN fears that more than redoing the contract.

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          7. bullet

            I suspect if the ACC really felt left behind, they could approach their TV partners about expanding to 9 games and seeing if that was worthwhile.

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          8. duffman

            vincent,

            In all this I am working within the 16 team model which only means 4 slots per conference

            SEC = TAMU + 3
            B1G = 4

            the issue is which 4 out of this list
            UVA
            MD
            UNC
            Duke
            Pitt
            ND
            ????

            as the current list is > 4

            anything past 16 teams just muddies the water on a playoff system

            There is a big difference between the B1G going to 16, and 18 or 20

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          9. rich2

            My experience suggests that unless you have an opportunity to “cash out” equity holdings or to open a golden parachute, aggressive leaders tend to resist having their organizations chopped into pieces by outsiders.

            I would be shocked if the leaders and members of the ACC and BE would remain isolated and allow itself to be carved up under the scenarios advanced on this board. It might happen. But I think you could form a 12 – 16 team football conference fairly quickly for a combined ACC+BE that would thwart many of the scenarios offered on this board — especially if you add ND — even if a few schools from each conference are peeled away.

            It is the timing that cannot be simulated in these discussions and the timing (and sequencing) of events (which school jumps to which conference and when ) means everything.

            For example:

            If today there is a level of trust that a “gentleman’s agreement” would be honored among ND, UNC, Duke and Texas that this “core four” would align if there were seismic changes, than that nucleus would thwart almost any scenario that has been offered.

            Using that nucleus, WF, Miami, BC, GT, Viriginia, Syracuse, Pitt, WV, Rutgers, TCU, MD and others could be easily induced to stay or to join a re-constituted “ACC” conference depending on their current conference affiliation.

            Only in the scenario where there is a multi-conference simultaneous attack by the SEC, PAC12 and Big10 on the ACC and BE with “exploding offers” of insanely short windows ( and backed by efforts led by Purdue and Stanford engineers to jam the internet email accounts and other communication devices of ACC and BE officials) could this scenario seem plausible.

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          10. Rich, the ACC is the prime target here, as its schools on the whole have more value than Big East schools do. I really don’t think the latter conference figures much in the equation, save for longshots Rutgers to the Big Ten and West Virginia to the SEC.

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          11. Richard

            rich2:

            The only problem with your “gentleman’s agreement” is that it’s a prisoner’s dilemma even if the schools communicated with each other. Essentially, each major school would have to have faith that this brand new national conference would last and that the other major players have faith that this brand new national conference would last. For instance, if the B10 offered UNC & Duke, they could take it right then, but if they don’t, ND decided to remain independent after all, and Texas decides to head west while the B10 takes Miami & FSU, UNC & Duke end up in a worse situation.

            I could see ND & Texas teaming up, but I really doubt that you’d see other brands who have choices so eager to join up with their new overlords if they have the choice of joining the B10 or SEC.

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        2. duffman

          I think richard hit the nail on the head, as asking Duke to accept the position Kansas (both basketball only schools) is in now seems laughable. If Arkansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and now TAMU (their own family) have all walked away from the ego that UTx seems to possess, why would Duke run toward it? I also understand your “golden parachute” argument, but if you look at modern corporate america, some smaller firms just have to close up their doors, or accept limited markets. Tulane was powerful once, as was Minnesota, but where are they now compared to where they were.

          The B1G and SEC have the history going back 100 years or so to keep them in the fold, and the best teams in the PAC can bring power to the table, but after that you are dealing with younger and less valuable properties. FSU and Miami have shown the rise and fall nature of the younger history inherent with the older schools. I think people forget that the top spots are not growing, so if say an up and coming program like Va Tech takes a top spot, it can only do so by displacing a U$C or Notre Dame. I am careful to use the word realignment, because that is what is happening. We will not have say 240 D1 schools in a decade which would double the slots at the top, but will have less. If 10 years from now we have 4 16 team conferences you will actually constrict the teams at the top.

          To put it in context, in 10 years would you wager that Nebraska is at the top, or Wake Forest?

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  130. Hopkins Horn

    So am I the only person on here (other than Frank, I presume) who remains confident that nothing is going to happen? I wish I wasn’t so confident; it’d be more fun to be speculating and such.

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    1. greg

      HH, I still think nothing will happen. I’m starting to sway towards the other side, but too many hurdles still remain at this point. duff’s posting of the politics starting up helps me continue to think its not going to happen.

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        1. Aggie in Fort Worth

          San Antonio Express News writer Brent Zwerneman is reporting today to the rumors being made public for the first time that the replacement for Texas A&M will be University of Houston — a Conference USA team. I thought the replacement would be BYU, but there is some things the addition of UH can benefit the Big12 Conference and in the process hurt A&M. One benefit would be to give the other programs the ability to recruit Houston a lot easier and with may be more success rate than when A&M was guarding the town.

          UH will come in at the bottom of the food-chain when it comes to prestige and getting money, so A&M’s pot will undoubtly be used to calm the fears of Oklahoma State and Texas Tech to the level of Texas and Oklahoma. Pure speculation, but it seems logical as Tech has been vocal at the local and regional level of their displeasure with the strong-arm tactics of ESPN/Texas to be the conference team to play this year on the Longhorn Network.

          Add a few more dollars to the next two programs to make sure the conference does not have any more defections toother conferences.

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          1. Alan from Baton Rouge

            Houston is also a good political play. The state of Texas would then have 6 BCS teams (along with TCU to BE in ’12), up from its current 4. Also, UH is a public school, that I understand has beefed up its academics. More athletic exposure almost always helps with donations to the University. The state of Texas also retains 40% of the Big XII-2’s membership.

            The Texas Lege may go for that.

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          2. @Alan from Baton Rouge – I agree. I don’t know if I buy that rumor, but if this is true, at least the addition of Houston provides a legitimate reason for the Powers That Be to let A&M go. That’s much more persuasive to me than simply A&M making a procedural move while the legislature is out of session. Sure, the Aggies might be able to technically do that, but the A&M board has to work with all of those legislators way beyond next year, so they’re going to need a political blessing as a practical matter.

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          3. BigFunny

            Come on Frank. This deal is done. Your Texas sources let you down. The Texas Legislature is about 80% indifferent, 15% pulling against it and 5% pulling for it. A&M’s two hole cards? The session is out for a long time and the Governor. Are you really still hanging on to your analysis?

            A better course of action would be to come to grips with reality and start assessing the impact of this move on the Big Ten.

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          4. Bigredforever

            Plus, Houston becomes a vote for Texas. If you really want to keep the big12 alive and you want further control, bring in Houston. They will forever say thank you.

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        2. So, basically, the Aggies get to flee Baylor and Tech for greener pastures, while Texas gets to be stuck with them AND swallow having to be stuck with a commuter school (its in-state nickname is “Cougar High”)that draws 25K a game in a market Texas already dominates?

          Not. Going. To. Happen.

          Again, everyone keeps forgetting that pro-UT forces in the Legislature more or less held their fire in 1994 and 2010 while earning their chits (is that the right word? chits?) along the way. The only way A&M leaves is if Texas wants them to. I don’t think that’s what Texas wants today.

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          2. Yeah, Big Funny, because even pro-BAYLOR forces in the Legislature alone have never been able to demonstrate their ability to thwart the wishes of the larger state schools. So the deal must be done.

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          3. bullet

            There’s a mistaken impression that Governor Ann stopped Baylor being left behind. The Texas governor is one of the weakest in the country (Texas has a constitution to control appointed Yankee carpetbaggers). It was the Lt. Governor Bullock and various Senate and House chairman who stopped it. Governor Ann didn’t hurt, but she didn’t do the heavy lifting.

            I don’t see UH being invited. Here would be the ultimate insult. The Big 12 loses A&M and invites Louisville or BYU and gets an increased TV contract. A&M doesn’t really add as much value to the Big 12 as it would to the SEC who has no presence in Texas. But do they add $17.9 million in value and does #14 add $17.9 million?

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        3. @Frank: I’m being redundant with my earlier comment, but do you think pro-Texas legislative forces would be mollified with this supposed Aggie plan of “hey, take U of H as a parting gift”?

          No way, unless, again, that’s what Texas wants in some sort of weird way that I just don’t see.

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          1. ccrider55

            Hopkins: an honest question. If UT did not want to set the breakup if the Big12 in motion why did they setup the LHN (including hiding parts that supposed assurences were made it would not include) in such a way that conferences and schools across the nation felt inappropriate at the least, let alone those most effected by it?

            I’m not convinced that it is not UT driving the bus by proxy.

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          2. @ccrider55:

            You’re asking me to answer a question with a false premise. You and others might not like UT or what is has been doing, but it didn’t set up the LHN with the intention of pissing other people off.

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          3. ccrider55

            Hopkins:

            I may or may not “like” UT, but I certainly respect them and it seems incredulous to believe they could not anticipate the fallout. Perhaps it is swifter than expected, but a couple things UT is not and they are dumb and unprepared.

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    3. Alan from Baton Rouge

      Horn – I’m with you. I do a lot of work in politics and 10 days may as well be a year. This Aggie sabre rattling could be an effort to extort something from UTx or the Big XII-2. It could be that they really want to leave. It could be a situation that after the politicians, UTx admin, Big XII powers, and network execs get together, they tell the Aggies to go back to the kiddie table, eat their peas, and like it.

      Reaction is Baton Rouge is mixed. While we like to hate the Aggies and certainly enjoyed beating them in the Cotton bowl, the SEC doesn’t need A&M. The SEC is presently doing just fine.

      I’m pretty ambivilent about the situation.

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      1. Michael in Raleigh

        @Alan:

        If I were a big fan of an SEC team, I wouldn’t want A&M all that much.

        Short of a 9-game conference schedule (fat chance of that happening), LSU will play A&M annually, and have to switch from 1 home game every 5 years against Tennessee, UGA, S. Carolina, Kentucky, or Vandy to 1 home game every 12 against those teams plus another team in the East. And that’s assuming that the East/West permanent rivals remain the same.

        Something would have to give in order for East and West opponents to play each other with any kind of regularity. Either there would have to be a 9-game conference schedule, and even then, the frequency of crossover games would be less than it is now since there’d be one more team on the opposite side. Or the permanent crossovers would have to be eliminated, which would make fans of the LSU-Florida, Auburn-UGA, and Alabama-Tennessee series VERY upset.

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      2. bullet

        I suspect LSU (who used to play the Aggies regularly in the 70s) and Arkansas are the fan bases that would be the most interested. The rest are probably ambivalent or opposed. The East fans want Alabama, Auburn or LSU, not A&M on their schedule. Maybe Vandy or UGA would want them to help student recruiting in Texas, but I don’t think the fans would. I met the UGA President a few years back at a function in Houston to meet alumni, but primarily to meet parents of students. There is actually a sorority on the UGA campus referred to as the “Texas” sorority.

        The only way I could see Texas wanting Houston if it was some sort of desire to help them on their way to Tier I status by raising their visibility (UH was the first of the 7 schools designated as potential Tier I schools to make the Carnegie High Research category). Texas might want that in order to ease the enrollment pressure as well as having an additional research partner and also to help legislators keep good students in state instead of sending them off to Georgia, Alabama and LSU (all popular spots now for students who can’t get into Texas or A&M-usually good students who are at good schools and so don’t meet the top 10% of their class requirement for admittance-73% of UT’s freshman class was admitted that way last year).

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    4. M

      I remain incredulous, but it certainly has gotten more discussion than I ever thought possible. As I say further up, this just seems like such an unlikely/stupid action that it shouldn’t happen.

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  131. lobills

    One other thing about the “Super Death Star Conf.” Frank talks about Missouri being a stalking horse to get Texas onboard. He also mentions that by going to 13 teams the B1G would create instability across the college football landscape. To me both the stalking horse AND instability maker is the Longhorn Network. It’s actually brilliant. A channel that hasn’t even gone on air yet has likely caused Phase 2 (as Frank describes it in the piece) of conference realignment to begin.

    And honestly if UT and ESPN decided to scuttle the idea in a couple months after all the realignment goes down, how much would they be out in terms of start up costs? $10M? More/less? Not a big chunk of cash considering the overall size of the original deal AND the likely next TV contract ESPN will surely want to be a part of with the B1G with both Texas and ND on board.

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    1. mushroomgod

      Everything I have ever read on point suggests that the TX admin. and fanbase is more interested in going west than in going north…same for OU…….thus I see a TX/OU/OSU/Kan expansion as much more likely than TX/ND to the BIG…..aslo, from the sound of it, the LHN would fit better into the PAC’s regional network scheme than into the BTN……

      Those Big Teners on here longing for TX, NC or the like should remember that culture and fit still matter….if you don’t think so, go read the FSU forums………they’ve been in the ACC since ’91 or so, but many of them think of the ACC as the Carolina league….the BIG is better off adding MO and Rut/Pitt and waiting on ND than trying to work some of the schemes advocated on this board

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        1. duffman

          Vincent,

          They ran a poll in either the AJC or the OS on who they wanted as the SEC adds (if I can find the link I will post it) and Missouri was in 8 – 12th place with maybe 2% – 3% of the vote. I think the SEC schools look as Missouri as “meh” when it comes to sports overall. I would defer to Alan or Bamatab to correct me, but I am guessing if expansion comes in the SEC, Missouri will be hard pressed to get a vote from any of the 6 schools in the east. I think Missouri to the SEC is the Missouri folks trying to post other boards in the hope they do not get stuck in CUSA.

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          1. Brian

            http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/sports_college/2011/08/internet-reports-fuel-texas-am-to-sec-reports.html

            The people want TAMU, FSU, OU, VT and Clemson, with Other beating out MO and OkSU. Of course, the voters don’t have to consider realities that might constrain them from getting their top choices (politics, etc).

            This doesn’t mean the SEC doesn’t see value in adding MO, perhaps as the fourth B12 school (TAMU, OU, OkSU, MO) or even as TAMU’s partner.

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  134. duffman

    Loki,

    I have tried to post the link twice, but it is not working 😦

    There is a post on TexAgs asking who they want to take with them to the SEC. Several have mentioned Rice as a balance to Vandy in the east as both have baseball and academics 🙂

    Just thought you might like to hear the TAMU folks are thinking of Rice!

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      1. duffman

        It was on the TexAgs site in their football forum. I tried to link it when I saw it because Loki has been here (FtT) for at least a year, and I really wanted him to see I was not pulling his leg. One of the threads was who should go with TAMU, and somebody suggested they needed an academic school to match Vandy. The thread picked up steam as aside from academics, both Vandy and Rice have good baseball, which is important to SEC schools. I went back e few min ago, but due to the news today, a site that normally has 2 – 4 pages of threads now has 20 – 30 pages.

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  135. RedDenver

    Assuming conference realignment armageddon is on the way for a moment, I’m curious what the other B1G commenters think about UT joining the B1G. I’m against the move as UT is a terrible fit both geographically and culturally. I just don’t see that move producing a cohesive conference. Comments?

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    3. Todd

      Why makes everyone think the PAC-12 is a better fit than the BIG? Geographically, I would think the BIG is better than the PAC-12. I believe 6 current BIG schools share the CST with Texas.

      Not being a wise guy, I’m just curious to hear your thoughts.

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      1. Todd, while Texas has a lot going for it as an academic and athletic fit, it also has a tradition of not playing well with others. That’s the crux of the matter, and why it wouldn’t blend in with the Big Ten. The Pac may be UT’s lone alternative to the headaches of independence.

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      2. Geographically, Texas would presumably bring a couple buddies(most likely OK, OK St, Tech) along with. Then they’re very close to 3 schools and fairly close to two more (AZ, ASU). Everyone in the B1G would be fairly far to very far away. I would GUESS that pure distance is more important than simple time zones as well, though I could be wrong.

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        1. Richard

          None of those 3 are academically high enough to join the B10. I’ve heard on a Texas board that the B10 would allow in Baylor (to appease Texas), though that seems highly unlikely as well (no research to speak of–though Baylor Medicine is a powerhouse, it separated from BU a long time along, and in USNWR, it’s ranked #79, which isn’t exactly top tier).

          Does Rice have any pull in the Texas legislature? Loki?

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    4. Brian

      1. I’m against expansion.

      2. I think UT gets a bad rap. TAMU has understandable issues with UT, but OU got along with them. Even NE mostly agreed with UT, it seemed more like the overall shifting of the conference towards the state of TX that bothered them. UT isn’t going to boss around OSU, UM, PSU and NE and I don’t think they would try to do it.

      Academically, they’d be great. Athletically, they’d be great. Financially they’d be great. Culturally, they’d have to adjust. What people seem to forget is the B10 is already pretty diverse culturally. PSU is an eastern school and 1200 miles from NE. IA is very much a midwestern school in a conservative state. Madison is extremely liberal. PU is an engineering only school. MN is a big school in a big city. NW is an urban private school. MSU is a little brother. MI is the arrogant older brother. UT would be different, but they share some similarities.

      3. A very important part of the question is who comes with them, and you didn’t specify.

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  136. OT

    The Big 8 is about to return because…

    A&M will SECede

    Texas will go independent in football and join the BIG EAST in other sports.

    ==

    Oklahoma State won’t join the Pac-12 because Boone Pickens says so.

    Oklahoma can’t go to the SEC without Oklahoma State, but the SEC does NOT want Oklahoma State.

    The Big East has room for 3 football programs. Will Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri make the move as a group?

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  138. Danimal

    Someone with contacts inside the A&M AD says that it is a done deal with A&M to the SEC. Expect it to move quickly, as the quicker that this happens the less the buyout.

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    1. Aggie in Fort Worth

      Take the info with some caution, as the A&M groupies on Rivals and Scout networks are really the ones reporting the “deal is done”. The talk may be true, but it is also possible there is an echo chamber for these guys. The SEC is having their meeting as duffman has stated above and greg has posted the link below. A&M still has to get through their Board of Regents meeting, if there are not other things to be done legally.

      May be these guys should be reporting that the athletic department has the necessary paperwork written and ready to be blessed by those higher in the food chain.

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      1. greg

        The same reason A&M might be held up is the same reason why I don’t think radical realignment will ever happen: There are too many humans involved.

        Posters on this blog like to talk about realignment like a game of Risk, where the schools are mindless pawns in a game to be scooped up by 3 or 4 individual thinkers (the conferences).

        In reality, the conferences are collections of institutions that are basically a collection of committees (leadership, faculty, subgroups within these groups, forced public hearings, etc.). These institutions are usually overseen by a Board of Regents (committee) and impacted by the state legislature (committees of evil). Conference realignment combines the worst of human bureaucracies.

        At this point, maybe the biggest names at A&M have decided they want to go. But there is still a lot of red tape to work through.

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      2. BigFunny

        You are dead wrong about Scout reporting the deal is done. Only one site has done that and it was the Rivals Aggie Yell site. That guy was purely guessing.

        That said the deal is done. SEC agrees to accept A&M Sunday night. A&M will accept Monday. Still think a semi-official announcement will come today via a source like Brent Z Houston Chronicle) or Chuck Carlton (DMN)

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    2. bullet

      Why is the buyout less? Is there some sort of starting date for the Fox contract and an associated buyout?

      My understanding is that the buyout is the same. If you leave with 2 years notice its 80% of 1 years’ revenues and with 1 year its 80% of 2 years’ revenues. So leaving quickly costs more.

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      1. Aggie in Fort Worth

        More will undoubtly be spoken about this in the future. It is my understanding that the Aggies may play this in one of three ways.

        The first is that A&M never signed the paperwork from last year when the Big12 Conference was reorganized with the Huskers and Buffalos leaving for new conferences. The concern has been that the Big12 Commissioner’s plan of new teevee money was questionable. Texas A&M had a demand that it be paid a minimum of $20M/year to stay, and there was some Beebe’s teevee plan was viable or not.

        The second item is that A&M will show the Big12 Conference did not act in good faith of its members with the Longhorns acting in their own best interest when the contract was signed with ESPN. Yes, the high school games has been solved, but the second collegiate football game (and it being a conference game) was against the rules of the conference. Texas has tried to strong-arm Texas Tech earlier this week to get that game on the LHN.

        Of course, the third way may be something similar Colorado and Nebraska had done to mediate a compromise amount.

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  139. greg

    http://www.mrsec.com/2011/08/mrsec-com-has-learned-sec-will-hold-special-expansion-meeting-on-sunday/

    MrSEC.com has learned that the Southeastern Conference has indeed called for a special meeting this weekend. The league’s 12 presidents/chancellors are expected to take part in the chat on Sunday.

    A source inside one of the league’s 12 member institutions has confirmed to us that the meeting — or conference call — will take place. (We say conference call, because at least one top SEC administrator is expected to be unavailable for a face-to-face meeting this weekend.)

    It’s assumed that this meeting will deal with the potential entrance of Texas A&M and/or Florida State into the SEC. It’s also possible that Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Virginia Tech will be mentioned during the discussion.

    Whether this will be a temperature-taking session or an opportunity for SEC leaders to make a formal vote remains a mystery.

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        1. bullet

          I think FSU is the opposite of A&M. Now they are a brand, but they add more value to the ACC than they do to the SEC. There is actually a lot of sense from the standpoint of the conferences to splitting states, especially when you have two schools with strong support as in Florida, S. Carolina and Texas.

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        3. Richard

          In that article:
          “The possibility of being left out if FSU bolts the ACC has the Hurricanes, “scared to death,” said a source.”

          Would that open up the ‘Canes to B10 overtures? Would visiting S Florida (semi-)regularly help persuade Texas? Would getting those 2 persuade ND that the B10 is national enough?

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          1. @Richard – I’m all for that. I know that the common argument against Miami is supposedly institutional profile for the Big Ten, but they’re farther along on the research front than Notre Dame and their undergrad rankings are perfectly fine. They’ll also probably “play nice” in a way that Texas and Notre Dame may not. To the extent that the Big Ten needs a “Southern” school, I’d rank Miami high up there. They might be a lower tier “king”, but the pickings are going to get slim for anyone at that level and they’re in a key geographic area.

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          2. Brian

            http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/seminoles/os-florida-state-sec-0813-20110812,0,1648557.story

            The Sentinel blogger think it would be good for Miami if FSU left, as they’d have better odds of ruling the ACC. He previously mentioned how the SEC would help FSU in recruiting, though, so I don’t see how that doesn’t also hurt Miami if 2 in-state schools are selling the SEC versus the ACC. Still, UF and FSU are a long ways away from Miami and the local kids maybe prefer to stay home.

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          4. Richard

            Brian, Miami in the ACC without FSU is little different from Miami in the old BE (and we all know how that turned out). In fact, they’d be battling VTech annually for the conference title again!

            As for recruiting, South Florida is so chock full of talent and so far away from any other FBS school (besides USF) that Miami should be able to do fine even in a northern conference.

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          5. Brian

            I’d say the rise of UF and the dominance of the SEC lately is a big change from back then. Back then it was FSU or Miami for a chance at a NC. Now UF has risen and the ACC (sans FSU) and BE are seen as second tier. Only the continued ridiculous success level let that keep happening, and now the SEC is achieving that success.

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      2. Michael in Raleigh

        Two national championships. Twelve conference titles. Affiliation with several of the nation’s most prestigious public and private universities. A conference schedule that is just difficult enough to truly test the team 4-5 games a year and just easy enough to leave non-conference room not just for Florida, but also, through the years, for teams like Oklahoma, BYU, Notre Dame, USC, Syracuse, West Virginia, Alabama, and Texas A&M… The ACC has been very good for Florida State.

        I’m almost 30. I know FSU isn’t as deeply rooted in the ACC as others like the ones near my home, but I can barely remember the days when they were independent. Leaving this conference would really be a bummer, even if it means the Noles would have more money to spend on SEC-style shady recruiting practices. Or, excuse me, “enhance the student-athlete experience.”

        This is just so ridiculous… they’re able to get the #1 recruiting class in college football, get a pre-season top five ranking, make the NCAA tournament two straight years in b-ball, build an overall outstanding athletic department, and become an increasingly more well-respected university as an ACC member. Why do they need SEC money?

        Excuse me while I try not to throw up.

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        1. Richard

          Well, they’re also cognizant of the fact that the ACC is less stable than the SEC. If the SEC raids off some other ACC schools and the B10 takes some of the northern ones as well, FSU would be left in a rump conference despite their football brand. The ‘Noles most definitely don’t want to be left out in the cold.

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        2. Brian

          So one of your complaints is that FSU would have to actually play a tough conference schedule for once? That’s the criticism FSU (and Miami) got throughout the 90s, that they usually played 2-3 tough games a year (each other, 1 OOC and maybe another). It’s much easier to stay a top 5 team when you can expect to dominate most of your opponents.

          And the only reason the ACC can test FSU 4-5 games a year is if FSU is way down. Saint Bobby certainly never had 4-5 tough ACC games in a year until the end.

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          1. Michael in Raleigh

            Actually, FSU in the mid-90’s had some of the toughest schedules in the nation, according to computer rankings. Just look it up. In ’93, they played top five teams Notre Dame and UF, and top ten teams Miami and Kansas. Clemson finished in the top 25 and FSU beat them 57-0. FSU’s schedule was as strong as anyone’s in the 90’s. Don’t forget that UVA and GT had some very solid teams in the 90’s, and Mack Brown’s last two UNC teams went 21-3. FSU’s schedule on the whole could stand up to any in the nation.

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          2. Brian

            They always scheduled well OOC, something they’ll have to forget in the SEC. What made their schedules easy were the ACC teams. FSU was 62-2 in conference in the 90s. You don’t win that much if you face peers or even close contenders. I remember that first loss to UVA after starting ACC play 29-0, and UVA was lucky to keep it close and make a stand at the end. At 47-1, FSU went to NCSU in 1998 and watched Weinke throw 6 picks in a shocking loss.

            There were not any serious challengers to FSU in the ACC in the 90s. UNC had a couple of good years, and so did some other teams but FSU was a cut above them and everybody knew it.

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        3. duffman

          wow, almost 30! now i feel downright ancient!

          I am old enough to remember when FSU was the Boise State of football. They were independent, and played 1 or 2 “national” games on the way to a undefeated or 1 loss season (sound familiar). They won their MNC in this period, and proceeded to join a weak football conference that got to 12 teams and a CCG. They have not been back to the promised land since. I am still not sold on the long term success of FSU in a post Bowden world. What if they go back to where they were? What if USF or UCF leapfrogs them to obscurity like tOSU did in the B1G after WW II. The biggest upside to being a “brand’ is that you are afforded maybe a decade to get back up, instead of a year or two. For all the academic snobbery of the core ACC teams, they would have fallen off the radar were it not for their jock add ons in the past decade or two. I have said before in conversations with brian and frank that their football experience will not be the one I shared with my dad and grandfather. Those days are gone, and will not come back because it has changed the model from mom & pop intimacy to corporations and “revenue streams”. I loathe this, and weep for what was, but I will not live as long as you will and know there was a different way in a time you can not comprehend.

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          1. Brian

            duffman,

            Unfortunately, everything changes that way. What in life is the same as it was? Everything is more corporate now.

            However, nostalgia also covers up the bad things that have gone away. More teams can compete now than ever before. The segregation and racism you remember in CFB is essentially gone. Players are treated a little more humanely now. There are more minority coaches than ever. Not everything is worse than it used to be.

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          2. I am certain University of Florida officials are trying to persuade the other SEC officials that if it has to wrest a member from the ACC to complement Texas A&M, Virginia Tech is a much better bet.

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          3. Michael in Raleigh

            Duff,

            FSU didn’t win its first national title until ’93, its second year in the ACC. That year they weren’t playing a bunch of patsies on the way to an undefeated season. The final poll that year shows that they beat #3 Nebraska, #5 Florida, #15 Miami, #19 North Carolina, and #23 Clemson. (I was mistaken on Kansas’ ranking, but they were ranked at the time of the game.) You’re out of your mind if you equate that to Boise State’s schedule.

            I feel like FSU’s future is perfectly solid. No, they haven’t been a strong program forever, but they’ve still had 34 straight winning seasons, which is the nation’s longest streak. Recruiting has gone extremely under Jimbo Fisher, in spite of the ugly turnover from Bowden to him. If anything, I question the strength of schools like Michigan and Notre Dame’s brands. Michigan has only been able to conjure up one national title in the past 60 years, and Notre Dame hasn’t contended since ’93, even with the NBC contract.

            I’ll be the first to say I was embarrassed by any and all scandals FSU has had, but I take exception to the “jock add ons” comment. FSU has serious aspirations to become AAU members. I feel that FSU should be very proud to be members of the ACC and owes a ton to UNC, Duke UVA, etc. for how even the athletic affiliation has helped improve its reputation academically.

            By the way, FSU’s independent days under Bowden were no walk in the park. They went to LSU six or seven times with only one return game. Played at Michigan with no return game. Played repeatedly at Nebraska with no return game. Played Clemson, South Carolina, Auburn, Pitt (when they were a power), and others. They were tested many times every year, and their schedule had no resemblance to Boise State’s. Period.

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          5. Brian

            Vincent,

            UF may not want FSU, but the rest of the East? If it hurts UF, it may help UGA, SC, TN, KY and Vandy to win more. FSU already recruits well so it’s not like there would be a major shake-up.

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          6. Michael in Raleigh

            Duff,

            Why are you sold on the long-term success of Penn State football in post-Paterno world but not FSU in a post-Bowden world? PSU was just another average eastern football school before Paterno. Besides, long-term, FSU will always have a huge leg up on northern schools as far as access to high school talent.

            My opinion: Both will go through ups and downs, but they’ll both prove that they can win big-time under multiple coaches. Bowden and Paterno just happened to be the men to get them started. Additionally, comparing FSU to short-term rises like K-State of the mid-90’s or even Washington of the 80’s and 90’s is nonsense.

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          7. Brian

            Michael,

            PSU was not just another eastern team before Paterno. Rip Engle would roll over in his grave to hear that. In 1966, when Joe Pa took over from Rip Engle, PSU was #16 in total wins and trailed non-factor schools like #1 Yale, #2 Princeton, #3 Penn, #4 Harvard, #9 Villanova, #10 Dartmouth and #14 Cornell, all I-AA now. They also trailed #8 Army and #11 Navy. That’s it for eastern schools ahead of them, and none are factors today or even back then.

            The other teams PSU trailed were #5 MI, #6 ND, #7 Texas, #12 AL, #13 OSU and #15 MN (the only non-king, but MN was a power at the time). As for eastern teams close to PSU, there were #18 Syracuse, #22 Pitt and #28 Brown in the top 30 of wins. If you prefer winning percentage as a measure, PSU was #18 and not much else changed except for Syracuse and Pitt dropping out of the top 30.

            PSU was the undisputed king of eastern football by the time JoePa started to coach.

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          8. Actually, Pitt had begun to fall on hard times in the mid-’60s, and Syracuse was probably the east’s best program at the time. Remember, SU had won the national title in 1959, regularly appeared in bowls throughout the ’60s (such as the Sugar Bowl following the 1964 season) and captured its share of Lambert trophy (emblematic of eastern football supremacy) during that era. It wasn’t until the end of the ’60s that the Orange joined Pitt in a tailspin, and while the Panthers rebounded in the mid-’70s, it took SU a bit longer.

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  140. cutter

    Perhaps the Texas state legislature should approach UT and ask them to support the promotion of Rice, SMU and Houston into the Big XII if they’re so concerned about the state of college football within the state. Texas Christian went into the Big East and became a member of a BCS conference–Rice, SMU and Houston could do the same thing in the Big XII and they don’t need Texas A&M in the conference to do it.

    The Big XII might be the weakest and most geocentric conference in the country with Iowa State, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State plus six teams within the state of Texas (UT, Texas Tech, Baylor, Rice, SMU, Houston), but it sure would be made in heaven for the University of Texas. They’d be able to play their five divisional games in the state plus the annual game in Dallas against Oklahoma. Hell, they would rarely have to cross the Red River or the state border during the course of conference play and if they kept the annual game with Texas A&M, Texas would have at least seven games per season within the state–you just know the Longhorn Network would love that. Add in a non-conference game with Notre Dame or some other major non-conference power to the schedule plus a warmup with NorthTexas to open the season and the Longhorns would be set. Heck, at that point, Texas could play nine of its twelve games within the state’s borders.

    Of course, it would mean reintroducing the dreaded conference championship game, but since that would more likely than not be a Red River Rivarly Rematch with Oklahoma to be played a second time at Jerryworld in Dallas, it’d be all grits and gravy for Texas. Just think of it–10 of 13 games within the state of Texas for UT. What Texas state legislator wouldn’t love that setup?

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    1. El Presidente

      Note Item 15 on the link: “Authorization for the President to Take All Actions Relating to Texas A&M University’s Athletic Conference Alignment, The Texas A&M University System”

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    2. bullet

      If they are doing it to beat the 8/16 committee hearing it really is a Scud. Didn’t more of those blow up on the Iraqis than their target?

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      1. RedDenver

        No, the scuds didn’t injury any Iraqis that I’m aware of. They weren’t an effective tactical weapon either though – just a propaganda/PR weapon.

        Interesting trend that while other conferences seem to be headed to 16 teams, the B12 is headed to a more traditional 8.

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  142. Pingback: FSU heading to the SEC? | Saint Petersblog

  143. Phil

    Doesn’t the Houston as replacement for A+M idea mentioned above make a lot of sense? As a condition of their invitation:

    -you make Houston sell the one game they would have TV rights on to the Longhorn network. You pay Fox some money to let that be the Hou-UT game

    -you make Houston sell the TV rights to some of their other sports to UT

    A+M leaves. Texas is happy because they now have satisfied their ESPN contract with 2 live football games and 200+ live sporting events in general, Houston is happy to move up to BCS status, and the other 8 teams are happy because the Longhorn network won’t show HS football and Houston is doing most of the bending over for UT!

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    1. RedDenver

      At first blush that seemed preposterous even a few days ago, but it’s looking more likely all the time. I’ll be interested to see how UT admin and Beebe paint all of this as a “win” for the B12 and UT.

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    2. m (Ag)

      I agree with others that I’m surprised this has been brought up, given the history. But it does make sense in a conference of unequals, particularly if they sign a contract with the Longhorn network as a condition for entry. It makes extra sense if the Longhorns intend to avoid playing A&M as a non-conference foe, as it gives them more exposure in Southeast Texas. That exposure will also be good for the other conference schools trying to recruit Houston.

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  144. DC Terp

    A former Terp and DC resident here.

    Take this as a token mid-atlantic response, but Maryland will not leave the rest of the ACC core (UVA, UNC, Duke) if there is any indicate that the four of them as a whole can move as one. Even if it means remaining in an athletically weaker ACC (if VT, FSU, Clemson, etc.), Maryland will still hold on to their ties with the other 3. Oddly, that loyalty is a one-way relationship since the other three see no real reason to stick with Maryland, but it is what it is.

    In general, the ACC is interested in $$$$$$$$$, academics, basketball, football, and lacrosse in that order.

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    1. That current lack of $$$, especially for football revenue, is probably why Maryland would be the easiest member of the ACC core for the Big Ten to pry as a solo (though it would make infinitely more sense for the conference to take the four as a bloc). I say this as a College Park grad.

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      1. duffman

        i would agree with vincent, that MD red ink will matter. On the flip side, WF has to feel the most nervous of the ACC schools if and when the herd gets culled!

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  145. Pingback: Conference Realignment Rumors: Florida State To SEC? » College Football Daily News - Get all your football news on one site

  146. Love this blog but never posted. Why on earth would adding Houston be a good idea if the Aggies leave? Stay at 9 teams, split the pie pieces into bigger slices and ride out the contract until the next wave (likely UT and others joining Big 10 or Pac 10 or UT going indy and the conference blowing up).

    Any discussion of adding UH is ignoring the UT-UH history in the past decade. I am not saying it’s an impossibility, just that it will take a lot for UT to agree to it (perhaps, as someone mentioned, all UT-UH games on LHN) and it’s not clear why filling A&M’s slot is necessary unless it’s Notre Dame, which isn’t happening.

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    2. bullet

      A-Tex makes a good point. UH screwed Texas fans (and endangered them until a UT fan called out the city of Houston which condemened UH”s temporary addition to their stadium about a week before the game) and UT hasn’t scheduled UH since.

      As for inventory, there’s Louisville. N. Illinois might add more value than UH (not in general, but in the specific case of a conference which already has UT and TT). BYU certainly would, but might take more time to negotiate and untangle their schedule.

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  147. GreatLakeState

    Delany has this ridiculous obsession with the east coast. He’s from New Jersey so it’s like, “Hey, let’s get Rutgers, because that’s where I’m from!” A college that, despite it’s location,doesn’t attract New York eyeballs and is a non-entity in athletics. His other obsession is North Carolina, because “Hey, that’s where I went to school!” Now, granted, North Carolina would be a nice addition, but they aren’t going anywhere without Duke and since you can only marry one twin, I’ll pass. Oklahoma on the other hand would be my first pick–and quick! Not only are they an AAU ‘bubble’ school but Nebraska’s equal in tradition and status. WE NEED AT LEAST TWO MORE LEGENDARY FOOTBALL SCHOOLS to stay even with the SEC. Oklahoma would likely bring Texas (eventually) and Texas would bring Notre Dame. I’d even take Missouri or SEC-zombie Arkansas if it made Texas feel better. Going independent in this era is unsustainable. They will land somewhere and I wish Delany would be pro-active and carpe diem before the SEC and PAC-12 leave us in the dust. The Big Ten’s outdated arrogance has made them a laughingstock- and the 2010 bowl season confirmed it. They need to turn the page and step outside their comfort zone if they are to take on a truly national identity . The Big Twenty= Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Texas, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina (and two of your choice). Am I dreaming? Of course. But as the Big Ten hems and haws the SEC are making their dream come true. -MGOBLUE

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    1. GreatLake, where is Oklahoma on the U.S. News list? Probably down around Nebraska, which at least had AAU status at the time it was chosen. Big Ten presidents wouldn’t be interested, and they’re the ones making the final decision. And there’s also that little problem with Okie State and Mr. Pickens.

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      1. GreatLakeState

        I don’t deny any of that, but I also believe the BTN is going to force a re-evaluation of what is and is not acceptable, even to the presidents. In the history of college athletics there are only a handful of teams/brands that can potentially double a television contract, increase public awareness or exponentially grow a network. They are going to be snatched up quick. Many would argue that the PAC is the BT’s equal in academic status and they were more than willing to take Oklahoma AND Oklahoma State. You can add prestigious schools to round out the 16/20 AFTER you add the powerhouse sports schools that bring the money and eyeballs.
        I have no doubt many will disagree with me, and being a ‘Michigan Man’ I know something about an inflated sense of self, but this is a once in a lifetime land grab and I fear that the big ten will become the Ivy League (sports wise) of the 21 century if they don’t shed their airs and graces and get down and dirty, quick.

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          1. duffman

            the tag along aspect is why i have trouble with where UNC falls. Duke is still a private northern school in a southern state. If it came to a vote by the population of the state, I can see UNC bound to NCST in the SEC. I am not saying it is a high probability, bit once you enter state school status, the locals are going to rally NC ST before the yankee school Duke.

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          2. NCSU tags along with UNC to the Big Ten; it would not be the other way around to the SEC. In other words, UNC controls its own destiny more so than State does.

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    2. GreatLakeState

      Those who dismiss the Oklahoma scenario because of Oklahoma State, go to this Sooner fan blog and read the posts and comments. The media hatred of the Big Ten and love of the PAC would make you think that OK is frothing to go West, but by about a 70/30% split, the comments on that blog are in favor of the Big Ten. Mostly because of the Nebraska factor, the ability to win championships and, to a surprising degree, the Academic/Research benefits.

      http://www.crimsonandcreammachine.com/2011/8/12/2360002/are-oklahoma-and-oklahoma-state-really-a-package-deal#comments

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      1. Ross

        Unless you are referring to some other post, there are literally 11 comments on that post, with only a handful of those even mentioning a conference preference. That whole “70/30% split” is mighty misleading, and I am fairly sure is not indicative of the Oklahoma fanbase as a whole.

        In addition, while I like Nebraska, I can’t say I’m happy the B1G sacrificed on academics for them. They certainly shouldn’t do it again in order to add Oklahoma.

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    3. Phil

      Maybe because Delany’s east coast roots lead to him understanding the markets here better than you do? The New York eyeballs aren’t just on the island of Manhattan.

      “The northern and central regions of NJ are captured by the New York market, while southern New Jersey is captured by the Pennsylvania market. This state of affairs places both New York and Philadelphia among the the four largest television markets in the country.

      If separated from the New York and Philadelphia markets, New Jersey alone would constitute the fourth largest television market in the nation. New York would fall from number one to number two (behind Los Angeles). Philadelphia would fall from number four to number twelve. “

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      1. GreatLakeState

        Yeah, it takes a real genius to know that New York and New Jersey are among the largest markets. The question relevant to this conversation is what colleges are capable of bringing those viewers to the BTN. You’re not implying that Rutgers or Syracuse will are you?
        The Northeast couldn’t care less about college football (as their TV contract reflects). They’re all about pro sports and nothing is going to change that. Certainly not membership in the Big Ten.

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        1. Phil

          Syracuse is as far from NYC as Penn St is, so I never implied that. What I implied is that fans in NJ do care about RU football,and NJ has a huge amount of people, so people make the mistake of caring too much what the people on the island of Manhattan are watching.

          As far as the TV contract goes, it looks like NBC will be taking care of that if the BE is turning down ESPN offers that would more than triple the current revenue.

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        2. Brian

          The BTN needs subscribers more than viewers. The lesser interest in RU mostly means that the BTN would have less leverage, so the channel would probably get a smaller amount per subscriber (at least until interest grew). The hope is that teams like PSU, MI, OSU and NE coming to town would drive interest in RU football.

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          1. duffman

            brian, I thought “subscribers” was the whole reason for a school like Rutgers. They are a “loss leader” to sell the midwestern B1G alumni now living in the corridor so you could bump up the carriage rates. The B1G alumni will “out subscribe” the Rutgers folks in the footprint.

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          2. Brian

            They are the reason. I’m just saying the demand may not initially be high enough to force $0.70 per month, especially since you are talking about getting on some major cable systems with a lot of other niches to satisfy. It’s hard to get a basic cable channel in NY or Boston, so the value may start lower. Once the BTN gets on, then the increased demand can drive the price up.

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  148. m (Ag)

    Well, even if politics screws this up, there is no question this a huge public relations victory for the SEC.

    Every year, you hear sportswriters and internet commenters saying “the SEC is overrated”, “it’s really just on a slight up-cycle; it’s not better than the other BCS conferences.” Yet, when A&M to the SEC came up, both last summer and especially these last few days, people around the country (but especially in Big 12 states) are quick to say the SEC is a huge step up from Big 12 competition. In addition to some national articles, I skimmed columns from Kansas, Oklahoma, and all across Texas; there is near unanimity in that the SEC is a far superior conference with more depth.

    If I was a fan of the Longhorns or Sooners, I would be embarrassed my leaders want to stay in the conference when there are better options available. College sports isn’t just about a championship at the end of the season; it’s events that take place on a daily or weekly basis. For football, I would rather be 8-4 in a conference where nearly every game was played in front huge crowds and where every victory you feel a sense of accomplishment that you won instead of 10-2 in a conference where you finish most weeks with relief that you didn’t screw up against a far inferior team. I think schools should have a few easier FBS games during the season to break it up for their athletes and to allow some conference comparison, but that should come in non-conference play.

    That said, I don’t have anything against Sooner and Longhorn fans, and I still hope our series against the Longhorns continues, even if that means some A&M baseball games in Austin end up on the Longhorn network (as long as an equal number of games in College Station go to the SEC contract or to A&M’s 3rd tier rights).

    As an aside, the difference between the conferences right now on the field (not in the stands) isn’t as large as they’re making it out at the moment. The top 6 teams in the Big 12 will be better than the SEC East (not the West) this year. Over time, I believe the SEC (and the Big Ten and probably the Pac-x) will separate itself more from the Big 12 quality. A&M moving pushes that along a bit, but it was going to happen anyway.

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    1. bullet

      Mostly its SEC fans who think the SEC is “a huge step up.” It is a stronger football conference most years, but not significantly. And its mainly in the middle. The top 1/4 is similar, maybe a little better in Big 12 (the true Big 12, not 12-2), the bottom 1/4 is similar, probably a little better in the Big 12, but the middle half is better in the SEC.

      And the SEC is a definite step down academically. In most sports other than football it is a step down. Certainly men’s basketball, the other big revenue sport, it has been below the Big 12. This past year it was below even on a strength-women’s basketball (I’m sure you Aggies would agree about that).

      What’s happened in the last 5 years is that the Big 12 along with the SEC had started to separate themselves from the Big 10 and Pac 10. Previously all 4 and even the ACC were pretty close.

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      1. m (Ag)

        “Mostly its SEC fans who think the SEC is “a huge step up.”

        and, apparently, a columnist from about every big city in the Big 12. I wasn’t kidding when I said I looked at articles from Kansas, Oklahoma, and around Texas that all had variations of the theme “A&M can do well in the Big 12, but it will lose all the time in the SEC”. There were some national columns with the same theme, but I didn’t read as many of those.

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        1. bullet

          Typical writer trying to get a reaction and gig the Aggies.

          I think the Aggies may very well have a problem long term by opening the recruiting door to the SEC. There’s no doubt the Aggies have SEC level talent now, but haven’t managed to put it together since Slocum got driven off.

          If A&M does go, I would love to send them off like Arkansas, who after announcing, couldn’t beat anyone but fresh off the death penalty SMU and faced chants of “SEC, SEC” in every stadium. And then have A&M go and win the SEC W the next year.

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  149. duffman

    Sequence of events:

    Sunday meeting of SEC folks

    Monday meeting of TAMU BoR

    Monday afternoon press conference

    then what comes next? because this is just the start of what is coming next

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    1. crpodhaj

      I wonder if the B1G could be left out in the cold? Right now the moves are to 14 (not 16). Texas has three options potentially more appealing than joining the B1G (staying in the B12, going independent, joining PAC12). The ACC, if they lose Florida St., could raid the Big East for 3 teams to stabilize their conference at 14. And so, if you are the B1G, and Notre Dame thinks they can survive in the world of 14 team big conferences and doesn’t want to come, where do you go?

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          1. mushroomgod

            I disagree.

            Have you guys noticed that MO is the ONLY legit western option for BT expansion?

            To me it would suck to see the SEC go to 14 with FSU and A@M, without the BIG responding.

            The ultimate BIG 16 would include ND, Pitt, Rytgers, amd MO. I say go get MO and Rut now IF the SEC acts. And don’t let the SEC have MO if FSU, VT, and Clemson turn them down.

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          2. Richard

            mushroom:

            Maybe it would hurt your ego, but adding schools that are B10 average athletically and among the bottom academically (Mizzou) or vice versa (Rutgers) would not help the conference catch up with the SEC in any way shape or form.

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          3. Redhawk

            so..you all want high academics AND high athletics to join the Big 10…but still want Notre Dame?

            Given your level of standards NO team would be able to quality to join the Big 10.Hell, Stanford wouldn’t make it in……in fact you might have to start kicking schools out.

            Lucky for other schools…you all don’t make that call. Getting one or the other is a good thing.

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          4. Brian

            Redhawk,

            The B10 wants money, academics, athletics, cultural fit and population, not necessarily in that order. UT and ND would be no brainers.

            The strength of OU’s brand and the rivalry with NE might get them in, but B10 presidents take academics very seriously and OU is a little behind in that area (NE is the bottom of the B10 and just ahead of OU). If taking OkSU is a condition to get OU, that would be a bigger problem as OkSU has worse academics and is not a big brand.

            Eastern schools (RU, MD, UVA, UNC, Duke, etc) would get in based on money, academics, being a fit with PSU, MI and NW, and increasing the population base for the future.

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          5. Richard

            Redhawk,

            Unlike some conference who only care about one thing (football), the B10 cares about both academics and athletics. You don’t have to excel on both, but you do have to be average in one and excel in the other. ND meets that criteria (little research but good undergrad rep).

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          6. Richard

            . . . by average, I meant B10 average. Obviously, UNL got in despite being below B10 average academically, so athletics probably matters more, but academics do matter. So OU may get in by itself, but I just don’t see how OkSt. can get in despite Picken’s money.

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      2. Richard

        Deloss has said Texas will not go independent (probably because of the secondary sports). However, staying in the B12 is probably more appealing. Only thing that can blow up the B12 is if OU & OkSt. decide to join the SEC or Pac.

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        1. Redhawk

          he says they won’t go independent….but he also has a TV network contract that pretty much means no self respecting school would want to live with or under…..he’s going to have independence thrust upon him.

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  153. Richard

    OK, the wheels in my head started spinning when I read in one of the articles above the following quote:
    “The possibility of being left out if FSU bolts the ACC has the Hurricanes, “scared to death,” said a source.”

    So if FSU is taken to complement TAMU in the 14-team SEC, you can be sure that Shalala (who was chancellor at Wisconsin before) would start working the phones in B10 country (if she hasn’t already). I don’t think the B10 would take Miami by itself, but could it be a way to reel in ND and Texas?

    Say they do (and Texas gets to bring along Baylor/Rice). You could see pods like this:

    NW
    Nebraska
    Wisconsin
    Iowa
    Minny

    SW
    Texas
    Baylor
    Illinois
    Northwestern

    SE
    ND
    Miami
    PU
    IU

    NE
    Michigan
    OSU
    PSU
    MSU

    Say Texas and OU still continue the RRR & Texas plays all OOC games in Texas. Texas would play 4 conference games outside of Texas, 3 of them in cold-weather states some years (when they visit Miami). That compares with 2.5 conference games outside Texas now (2 in cold weather states. Is an extra 1-2 games outside Texas and/or in cold weather states going to affect Texas recruiting?

    Now what about ND’s national schedule?
    Well, in this set up, they play Miami and a Texas school every year (as well as USC & Navy every year, and let’s say they rotate between BC & Stanford).
    Plus, I think IU would be willing to move their home games against ND to southern/eastern locales half or more of the time.

    They’d visit Midwestern schools 3.25 times (though if IU is willing to move their home sites to the south, that’s knocked down to 2.75 times.
    Eastern schools 1 time
    Western schools .75 times
    Southern schools 1 time (1.5 times if IU makes their home games in the south).

    That’s Midwest-centric, but where does ND play now?
    From this website, from 2011-16, ND will on average play in
    MW: 1.67
    East: 1.67
    West: 1.5
    South: .83

    It’s a shift, but not a big one. In fact, ND would play more often in the south even if IU doesn’t move their home games (and if IU is willing to move some home games east, the biggest shift is that ND would stop visiting the mountain west (BYU & AF) and visit the plains a bit further east instead (UNL, Iowa, Minny).

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    1. Richard

      So why would Texas go for this (join the B10)? I have to say that I don’t think they would unless
      1. OU & OkSt. bolt for the Pac or SEC
      2. The Pac is not going to be flexible about the LHN while the B10 is.
      Why would that be? Because the Pac is more unbalanced than the B10. If Texas can get away with the LHN, USC would want its own network as well as the Pac essentially has only one superpower right now. The B10 is secure enough and has enough superpowers so the big dogs see value in pooling their resources and gains.

      Would ND join, in that case? Touch-and-go, I think. ND may stay independent. However, they won’t be joining a weakened ACC or fly their non revenue sport teams to the west coast as rich2 may want.

      Even without ND, would Texas+Baylor+Miami+GTech/Rice work and be worth it?

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      1. ccrider55

        Really? Iowa, NW, MSU, IN, Perdue, etc are cool with PSU, tOSU Mich etc starting their own network, depriving the BTN of inventory? UT doesn’t have to join in pooling recourses? Great shared culture and values. If one can, they all can. So texas can’t.

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        1. Richard

          Um, no, I’m saying the other big dogs in the B10 _wouldn’t_ start their own network because they see the value of pooling resources and gains (plus, there are plenty of OSU fans outside Ohio, UM fans outside UM, etc.)

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    2. Brian

      First, the B10 isn’t jumping to 20 but I’ll let that slide since I know you’re just spit-balling.

      Second your pods are horribly unbalanced:
      NW – 1 king, 2 princes, 1 peasant
      SW – 1 king, 1 tradesman, 2 peasants
      SE – 1 king, 1 prince, 2 peasants
      NE – 3 kings, 1 tradesman

      Third, are these standard rotating pods? If so, how is ND playing a TX school every year? If not, why didn’t you just list divisions?

      Fourth, I can’t comment on rivalries because I don’t understand your system yet. Who plays who and home many games?

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      1. Richard

        In a pod system, a school would play everyone in their pod annually and everyone else semi-annually. Say the NE rotates with the SW & NW to form a division. They would always play their 2 interdivisional games against SE teams.

        I was wrong; ND wouldn’t play a Texas team every year, but they would play a Texas team an average of a game a year (2+2+0+0 over 4 years).

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        1. Brian

          First, sorry for the 20 misunderstanding. Clearly that’s 16 teams but I saw 4 groups of 5 and the first thing was NW, which means Northwestern to me. I forgot to go back and fix that.

          Second, I know how pods are supposed to work but your comment about ND always playing a TX team confused me.

          Third, I think a lot of teams would have an issue with your pods. UT doesn’t want NW and IL annually, ND doesn’t want IN and to lose annual MI and MSU games, the SE pod doesn’t want to be that much stronger than others, IN doesn’t want to lose OSU, etc.

          Maybe this:
          N – ND, MI, MSU, IL – 2 kings, 1 tradesman, 1 peasant
          E – OSU, PSU, IN, PU – 2 kings, 2 peasants
          W – NE, WI, IA, MN – 1 king, 2 princes, 1 peasant
          S – UT, Miami, Baylor, NW – 1 king, 1 prince, 1 tradesman, 1 peasant

          It would require locking OSU/MI and IL/NW, but not much else. People play the local teams for the most part, and every pod has some strength.

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          1. Richard

            While I can see UofI and NU playing OOC, UM and OSU both need to play 7 home games, and playing each other OOC would mean very few marquee OOC games. Plus, would the respective fanbases stand for their game having no meaning in the B10 standings?

            In any case, I see both MSU and Michigan playing ND only 4 times in 6 years even with no expansion once the Big10 goes to 9 conference games.

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  154. Pingback: You Down with SEC? Yeah, You Know Me! « FRANK THE TANK’S SLANT

    1. If FSU joins the SEC and the ACC football brand becomes even less valuable than it is now, you can be sure Tech would work behind the scenes to be part of a 16-member SEC,

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        1. duffman

          brian,

          here is one of those places where we disagree

          a) the SEC will go to 16
          b) at 16, VT will not want FSU to have the slot they could have occupied

          case in point, last season TAMU stayed in the B12, but with a year to think about it, they now appear SEC bound. This lesson can not be missed by the leaders of Va Tech, especially when the #1 choice of teams TAMU fans would like to see in the SEC is Va Tech!

          Keep in mind, both TAMU and VT are CoC schools. While that may mean little to the rest of the college football universe, I think the reverse is true when it comes to these 2 specific schools.

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  157. Pingback: Texas A&M Leaving Big 12 - Page 408 - CycloneFanatic

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