Before we get to talking about Notre Dame, the fate of the entire college sports landscape is being decided in Austin and College Station this week. Who knows if the Big Ten will ultimately be a part of this (I know that they are trying very hard), but I do believe this: Texas A&M would be insane to turn down an invitation from the SEC. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed all of my discussions with Texas fans over the last few months, but the prevailing belief among the Longhorn faithful that A&M would be making a mistake by taking that deal is complete nonsense. As much as I hate parroting the ESECPN talking points, the SEC has definitely been the top football conference overall for several years now. Its conference TV revenue per school today is larger than the projections for the proposed Pac-16, while A&M could also sell local TV rights on top of that. Financially and culturally, it’s a no-brainer for the Aggies. It puts its rivalry with Texas at great risk, but remember that Penn State gladly threw away its own Thanksgiving rivalry with Pitt a few years after joining the Big Ten. Remember that Pitt used to be considered Penn State’s equal not all that long ago. Now, Pitt is hoping for a Big Ten invite itself while Penn State rolls in revenue like few other programs. In this environment, it’s always better to be a member of a stronger and more established conference as opposed to trying to “control” a less stable and newer conference. If you had to bet your entire life savings, is the SEC going to be the more stable and lucrative conference in 10 or 20 years or is it going to be the new Pac-16? I would bet it all on the SEC, so how anyone could think that A&M would be making a mistake in choosing that option is being disingenuous.
Now, I mentioned in a post last week that a Big East message board obsession might be coming true. In reality, it’s really more like 2 related Big East message board obsessions coming up to the surface: a mandate to Notre Dame and a possible split of the league. It had been my belief for a very long time that there really wasn’t anything that the Big East could tell Notre Dame (as I explained in this post looking at Big East expansion options a few months back). Well, it turns out that I may be wrong since there is a mechanism that has a lot of teeth (and it’s counterintuitive as to who is pushing the issue).
A source with knowledge of the agreement that was entered into by the Big East schools following the ACC raid of 2003 states that in the event that 2 football members leave the conference, the football and non-football members can split the league without any penalty and retain their respective revenues, such as NCAA Tournament distributions. What is surprising is that the Catholic non-football members comprise the faction that is pushing the issue. If you recall, those schools met back in March to discuss “contingency plans”. Apparently, the Catholic schools have decided that they will exercise the split option if 2 Big East schools leave the conference (no matter who they might be) and have informed Big East commissioner John Marinatto as such. Financially, the Catholic schools would actually be in a fine position because they would have a large reserve of NCAA Tournament credits with Georgetown and Villanova having both made it to the Final Four in the last 4 years. There is also the stability and cultural fit standpoint, where the Catholic schools are not enthralled with the “usual suspects” of Big East expansion candidates from Conference USA. (In a side note, FedEx CEO Fred Smith has reportedly offered millions of dollars to a BCS league that would invite Memphis. Someone suggested to me that this type of offer could run afoul of Federal anti-corruption laws for inducing a public official, such as a public university administrator, to perform an official act. If there are attorneys practicing criminal law out there, let me know if that would be the case.) As much as the football members may complain about the hybrid model, the Big East is in a position where it will always need to leverage its basketball league in order to provide coverage for the football side. The Catholic schools are the ones that give the Big East an entryway into New York City, Chicago and Washington, so removing them actually hurts the football members more than the other way around.
This affects Notre Dame from several different fronts. Externally, it’s still optimal for the hybrid to stay together for all of the Big East members, so Catholic schools like Georgetown may be willing to sacrifice its connection with Notre Dame in order to preserve the hybrid model and its basketball games with Syracuse and/or UCONN. This gives to teeth to the rumored pressure from the Big East on Notre Dame to make a decision on whether to join for all-sports.
Even if there isn’t an ultimatum per se, the Big East is on notice that it will split up with the loss of 2 members without question. Therefore, if the Big Ten takes Rutgers and Syracuse, for example, it automatically forces the break-up of the Big East (where it’s not just a hypothetical threat). My understanding is that Notre Dame simply will not join an all-Catholic league for non-football sports when push comes to shove. Notre Dame’s alums may believe that it will be okay only because it would still be a pretty good men’s basketball league, but the problem is for all other sports. The athletic department size disparity between Notre Dame and the Catholic Big East members is the equivalent of USC or UCLA moving their non-football sports to the West Coast Conference. That’s just not going to cut it for an athletic department of Notre Dame’s size and stature, no matter how much its alumni base believes football independence matters more than everything else combined.
That’s the angle a lot of people are missing: Notre Dame’s decision on conference membership actually has very little to do with football. The Irish can still keep its NBC contract and there really is no danger of the program being shut out of the national championship picture even if 16-team superconferences are formed. A lot of Notre Dame haters go overboard in arguing that the Irish are heading toward football irrelevance. In reality, Notre Dame has as strong of a fan base as ever and it’s shown every time that the team is halfway decent. However, the rest of the Irish athletic department will suffer a ton of damage if the Big East loses any members. Once again, the Notre Dame alumni base might be perfectly fine with throwing every other sport under the bus, but the leadership at Notre Dame won’t be. There is little rational justification to let that happen when the Big Ten offers more football revenue anyway plus a major reduction in travel expenses.
The rise of superconferences might give Father Jenkins and Jack Swarbrick the PR cover with Notre Dame’s alums to make a move to a conference, but it’s really the terms of the Big East agreement combined with the stance of the Catholic membership that are putting the legitimate pressure on the Irish.
(Follow Frank the Tank’s Slant on Twitter @frankthetank111)
(Image from mlive)
FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT 
Knish.
LikeLike
Adding, waiting for FLP to have a coronary
LikeLike
part 2
LikeLike
Add
LikeLike
What are all these’s “add” for?
LikeLike
add
LikeLike
adding
LikeLike
add
LikeLike
Add
LikeLike
Me too.
LikeLike
Might I have another thousand posts for my inbox please sir?
LikeLike
well heres a post that shouldn’t spark any arguements. good work Frank 🙂
LikeLike
Very interesting. So will the Big Ten take Rutgers and Syracuse just to nab Notre Dame?
LikeLike
@Derek – I think Rutgers as the most likely to end up in the Big Ten. The 2nd loss might also be indirect, either in the form of the ACC losing a school to the Big Ten or SEC (where the ACC would replenish with Big East teams) or the SEC taking a school like West Virginia at the same time as adding Texas A&M.
LikeLike
The funny thing is that no matter happens, the Big East loses teams. Big Ten takes Maryland? Big East loses a team. SEC takes VT? Big East loses a team. Big 12 wants to get back up to 12, the Big East loses a team (Louisville).
LikeLike
Yeah, but none of those things are likely to happen. The SEC has no reason to raid the ACC if they can get Texas A&M and/or Oklahoma. The Big Ten has virtually no chance of prying away Maryland and the Big 12 probably cannot grab any Big East schools unless Texas commits to staying (also unlikely).
LikeLike
WV and A&M to the SEC w/ Rutgers to Big 10 would do the trick. Not sure why, but SEC is fond of WV.
LikeLike
This is speculation on my part, but I think you guys are missing the point… The Big Ten doesn’t actually have to steal a team from the Big East. They simply have to threaten to steal a team from the Big East causing the Big East to issue an ultimatum to ND to become a full member or get out. The threat puts the Big East on unstable enough ground for ND to look for stability via the Big Ten because ND knows the Big Ten would break up the Big East just to get ND…
If ND takes the bait, the Big Ten’s options are much better… The Big Ten can pick up Nebraska, Texas, and ND, which makes the Big Ten by far the best conference both athletically and academically. If ND doesn’t jump, if forces the Big Ten to nab a team or two from the Big East, which makes the conference somewhat weaker. If ND knows this, and they’re going to be forced to join the Big Ten either way, why wouldn’t they preemptively join the Big Ten so as to make the conference stronger?
Ofcourse all of this hinges on what A & M is going to do also. If A & M goes to the SEC, the Big Ten takes Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, ND, and a Big East Team. If A & M goes to the Pac 10, so goes Texas, and then who knows what’ll happen. If A & M comes to the Big Ten, the Big Ten takes Texas, A & M, Missouri, Nebraska, and ND, and doesn’t touch the Big East. Obviously this is the best scenario for the Big Ten.
LikeLike
Guido – I have not heard anything about the SEC having any interest in WVU. Do you have a source?
LikeLike
I have only heard the opposite base don SEC trying to up their academic standards. Only thing that has been mentioned was VT… aside from FSU.
LikeLike
Coming from a Pitt fan:
the WVU-to-SEC talk is mostly cultural, similar to murmurs about clemson. Consider their 18-year stint in the Southern Conference as well as successful tradition of scheduling SEC non-conference games.
LikeLike
I can’t find the article, but it was something I remember from several months ago when expansion really got started. It seemed to stick w/ me because i’ve noticed sometimes the early “word” ends up playing out in the end with these things. Not much to go on I guess.
LikeLike
Frank – If B10 doesn’t get UT and aTm goes to the SEC, does the B10 just sit and wait for the SEC to get an ACC team followed by the ACC getting a BE team? After the ACC gets a BE team, Delaney swoops in and gets Rutgers and then lays the full court press on ND to commit soon after? Getting Rutgers won’t be difficult so they could have all conditions agreed upon and simply wait on the BoR to vote.
LikeLike
After reading all the stuff being posted on the wildcat blog by Purple Book Cat — I now realize that I’ve been wrong about a lot of the stuff I assumed was going on.
But there was a thread going on there yesterday that ND is saying they’ll approach the ACC if they need to join a conference. They evidently feel they have more in common with the ACC than with all of the big, secular, research-oriented state schools of the Big Ten.
I couldn’t find any other source to back that up. Does this claim have any legs?
LikeLike
I know that some posters here have convinced themselves of that, but I’m not one of them. While there is some argument that the ACC would be a better cultural/institutional fit for us, it is beyond cavil that the decision-makers at ND desperately want the CIC and graduate research cache that the Big Ten uniquely brings.
If we join a conference, it will be the Big Ten. I have no doubt about that.
Put it this way. ND’s highest institutional goal is AAU membership. The B10 arguably aids achievement of that goal. The ACC does not.
LikeLike
I think that’s very likely if texas and A&M decided to split east and west instead of north to the Big Ten.
LikeLike
Irish eyes are smiling …
LikeLike
Vuvuzelas
LikeLike
OT but the broadcast crew has to do something about the buzzing. The only thing worse than watching a 90 minute 0-0 tie is watching it while under attack by killer bees.
LikeLike
It’s even in the video game. It’s all I can do to watch soccer normally. The damned buzzing makes the torture effect more real.
LikeLike
If the Big Ten does grab Rutgers and Syracuse, and then forces Notre Dame to join, what school is #16? Missouri seems to be out. Does they hold out for an SEC raid of the ACC and see if they can pick up Maryland or Virginia? Does Pitt come back into the equation?
LikeLike
Maryland or Virginia. if they don’t move the MAYBE Pitt
LikeLike
I think that as much as we would like Virginia, they would not be willing to move (certain things such as lacrosse come to mind). Plus, from everything that I have read about their school, their culture seems to much more closely align with many of the ACC schools than your average Big Ten school. That being said, I’m sure that they would listen – but my complete guess would be that they would not come.
I do think that Maryland would listen and strongly consider us. Just based off of all the discussions their fans have been having and knowing what the Big Ten could offer, I think that they are very much a possibility.
My guess of the remaining schools is ND, Rutgers, Maryland and one of Pitt/Mizzou/Syracuse. All of the final three have warts (Pitt already in the footprint, Mizzou undergraduate academics/partially in footprint and Syracuse private/little research), so I am hoping for a viable fourth to appear. My guess is that if ND joins as 13 or 14, we may end up with someone at 16 that we have little considered up to this point (much like the Maryland train that has only picked up speed the last two weeks – perhaps only on forum boards such as these).
LikeLike
agreed. just mention Virginia because thats a name you should at least check.
and I just don’t see Syracuse or Missouri. nothing against either but I just don’t get the feel they are prime options. I could much more easily see Syracuse eventually in the ACC.
if Texas is out of the picture and Notre Dame is not imminent there is no reason not to let things simmer a bit.
LikeLike
Or maybe the strategy is to sit back and wait for certain conditions to occur and then act at that point.
This is what Slive was doing as far as TAMU and OU.
I’m pretty confident that Delaney has things in hand.
LikeLike
A Big Ten fan posted over on Cornnation.com asking them to comment on who they would like to see added. One Husker responded that he would like for the Big Ten to stay at 12 for a while.
The poster’s reasons were based on what happened to them when transitioning from the Big 8 to the Big 12. He cautioned that adding several new members all at once brought together schools with different situations, experiences, and personalities which led to conflict right from the start.
He added that right now the Big Ten has a lot of consensus and harmony amongst its members(the Huskers, in fact, find this to be especially appealing). He cautioned that adding a bunch of schools in a short time period could foster league discord.
After reading that I’ve backed off of the get-to-16 mania. Something to think about.
LikeLike
I’d prefer Pitt, MD & UVA/SU/RU, whether or not ND joins.
I teeter back & forth on whether or not I’d want UT/TAMU &/ ND in the BT. Regardless of this, I think ND will end up in the BT, UT may end up in the BT (or P1#) & TAMU will end up in the SEC.
LikeLike
Great Read Tank.
So it has been often said ND will bring New York. Or have an immense amount of pull. So both NY teams are not a must.
Possible 16 team expansion. Although I love the Orangeman, Rutgers makes the most sense unless, ND wants SU. (fingers Crossed)
NEB, ND, Rutgers, Pitt, Maryland.
LikeLike
I think that Pitt makes the most sense from the three I listed above (Pitt, Mizzou, Syracuse) as the remaining three. Plus, if ND were an “early joiner” they may certainly push for Pitt due to their football history.
That being said, it’s obviously all conjecture on my part. Would love another state school to expand the footprint further, but if not possible, Pitt would be just fine.
LikeLike
Pitt is only better than Missouri in the academic/research area. Otherwise, Missouri is the better choice. Missouri has a larger enrollment, is 100% a state school (Pitt is state-related), is THE flagship school in the state, has a much larger fanbase, an on-campus stadium, and big TV markets.
LikeLike
….and a much better overall athletic program (40ish in Directors Cup v. mid-90s).
LikeLike
Frank, the question is, does the Big Ten force the question and take a school that it may not want, i.e. Pitt or Syracuse (Pitt is great institutional fit in every way but no new markets, meaning 12 + 1 = 12.5; and Syracuse is AAU but way, way smaller in research)?
I don’t think so, although I guess I could entertain the possibility here.
So, let’s say we do: Maryland is the final piece.
Big Ten + Nebraska/ND/Maryland/Rutgers/Syracuse
or Big Ten + Nebraska/ND/Maryland/Rutgers/Pitt.
I’d probably be fine with either of those, although I’d like to see a run at UVA or VaTech for the Syracuse/Pitt. spot to get into VA with a different brand.
The question is: what’s the strategy? Do you just wait for ND to come around and then join it with Rutgers at 14?
Or do you go for Maryland/Rutgers and then hopes Notre Dame comes around and pair it with Syracuse/Pitt./UVA/VaTech.
I suppose culturally, Syracuse or Pitt. makes the most sense.
Then you end up with a “Big North” scenario, which seems like a fine outcome for a 16 school Big Ten. Although we somewhat miss out on the heart of the east coast sunbelt, it’d probably be worth it.
My bet though would be that Delany would either go Maryland/Rutgers or wait for ND to join with Rutgers…
I don’t see him as forcing the issue even though you have Pitt. or Syracuse sitting around as workable…
LikeLike
Nebraska/ND/Maryland/Rutgers/Pitt and rename the conference the Army of the Potomac. should give the basketabll challenge with the ACC some added bite.
LikeLike
Not the Army of the Potomac! It will take years to accomplish anything. Come to think of it, we did finally win the Army of the Potomac/ACC Challenge for the first time.
LikeLike
Actually it all depends on if we can stick Virginia in that list somewhere. As the only reason Lee turned down the offer to command the Army of the Potomac, was that he couldn’t bring himself to wage war ‘against’ his home state.
LikeLike
You know Zeek,
with an indirect BE loss because of say the loss of Va Tech.
UVA could still be in play. Maryland UVA ND Rutgers (Pitt)(SU) Neb.
still very possible.
LikeLike
What is all this fascination of late with Virginia Tech? What is it exactly that they bring to the table?
LikeLike
Strong fan base, access to the Virginia market and a solid product.
That being said (again, no inside information), I think it is much more likely that they would go to the SEC than the Big 10 if they go anywhere.
LikeLike
I love Va Tech like the next guy, but I think the only non-AAU team allowed will be ND.
LikeLike
VT has been very good for the past few years (won their conference and all that), and has sustained success for a while now (since Vick put them back on the national map). They bring the tidewater VA market (larger than you think), but they also bring the DC market. Don’t let anyone tell you different, VT is the biggest college football team in the DC area.
Me, I’m a WVU fan. :sigh:
I hate our crappy conference.
LikeLike
Maryland’s not coming, and Syracuse sucks……..
LikeLike
Syracuse sucks in the same way that Minnesota sucks from an athletic standpoint. Go back 50 years and they were national powerhouses. Heck go back ten years or less and they were both 8 or 9 win teams that would fit soundly in the second or third tier of the Big Ten (depending on the depth in any given year…).
LikeLike
I’m with ya mr. wulfen…
LikeLike
Frank – I agree that it would be crazy for A&M not to go to the SEC, but I have a feeling that the gravitational pull of UTx is too strong. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m thinking that the SEC stands pat during this round.
Also, we have a runner that is a redshirt freshman on the LSU football team who works at my office. No inside info, but he said all the players that he has spoken with think expanding the SEC is crazy. Bottom line is the players think they have the hardest path to the BCS NCG right now, and that adding OU or UTx would make it that much more difficult.
LikeLike
If OU/TX are too tough, A&M makes all the more sense.
A&M to the SEC makes more sense than Colorado to P10 and Nebraska to B10. Without a doubt, it is their best fit.
LikeLike
Alan,
I think if A&M goes to the SEC, it will be Va Tech as the pair.
LikeLike
Duff – I’m fine with VA Tech. We owe them big time. If not for LSU’s epic beatdown on VA Tech in 2007, the Tigers probably don’t make it to the BCS NCG.
Seriously, VA Tech would fit in the SEC just fine. I think FSU is a better “get” though.
LikeLike
Frank, Great stuff. Sounds like the Big Ten is just biding its time to see what A&M does before it acts. Ultimately, I think the Big Ten would like to add only Texas and Notre Dame and call it a day with 14 teams. However, if they are forced to add two teams to get ND, they will do it.
Do you think the Big 12 has brought up adding Memphis as a way to try and keep the Big 12 from falling apart?
LikeLike
Yeah, why hasn’t the B12 been doing anything but curling up in the fetal position?
LikeLike
Texas and Texas Tech will announce on Tuesday of their intentions. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will also be in that time frame, but not really sure.
Texas A&M has still not given the 72-hour notice to the BOR, so its decision will not be made formally until Thursday at the earliest.
The feeling from Aggieland is that the vote is about 50-50 between the two options. SEC commish visited yesterday, and the PAC10 commish visited today. Both options are on the table and being evaluated.
Our illustrious Big12 commish has floated up a plan today to save the Big12 – promising $17M per team per year from national television rights, chance to have own television channel (big selling point for the Horns), and split the $20M monies to be gained from Nebraska and Colorado as they have bolted to new conferences.
LikeLike
I’ve lived in Memphis and it just isn’t a Big12 school. The Liberty Bowl is a dilapidated pit and the academics are abysmal. Their two most recent athletic highlights (Final Fours in 1985 and 2008) have been vacated.
Move them to the Big East if necessary, but not to the Big12. I have too much respect for the remaining schools to see them associate with Memphis.
LikeLike
Husker Al… I too have spent some time in Memphis and agree with you… I also think Memphis is trying to become the next Oklahoma State–have a single large benefactor try to buy the school respectability…
Sorry, It takes more than cash to earn respect.
If this FedEx exec wanted his son to play FB in BCS, maybe his son should have went to a BCS school… unless, of course, he couldn’t meet more stringent academic requirements ALA Big Ten.
Just sayin….
LikeLike
What if the Big East were to expand by annexing the 4 Big 12 North schools: Kansas, K-State, Missouri, and Iowa State?
How will that affect the status of the Georgetown/Villanova/Seton Hall/Providence axis in the Big East?
(I am assuming that DePaul and Marquette are tied to Notre Dame.)
LikeLike
adding
LikeLike
Only thing is, would a pissed off ND still go to the Big Ten (sic) (sic) or the ACC? Travel for non-football would be worse, but the ACC could add Cincy and perhaps one or more of MO, ISU, KS, Lou, Pitt, WV for some schools closer to ND. With 3-6 slots open, could tailor the expansion to ND’s desires. Midwest, eastern, and even Texas teams. Baylor, SMU, and TCU are quality schools with the academic standing to meet ACC desires while giving ND the Texas recruiting games ND wants. National schedule in conference except for the west coast.
LikeLike
I’ve always thought that was a real possibility. Notre Dame hates joing the Big Ten almost as much as they love independance. the administration may want the Big Ten but a compromise with the alumni donors and fan base could very well be to accept greater travel expense and move to the ACC instead.
LikeLike
I do not think it is that much of a real possibility. ACC does not have nearly what the Big Ten can offer, particularly from a football perspective. Sure we could hear some misdirection about the possibility (and I am sure that ACC would welcome it), but there is no reason for Notre Dame to consider that option other than to go ‘F you’ to the Big Ten, which is not in their best interests.
I think they will continue to do what is ultimately in their best interests. I have yet to see a compelling case that the ACC would be superior, other than it is more “national” because you have to travel further.
LikeLike
And it’s smaller State schools and more actual private school. Big Ten folks forget that. ND will remain a small and hopefully Catholic school, which is why it’s a poor institutional fit with the Big Ten.
LikeLike
I am sure that regardless of where Notre Dame goes, they will remain a small catholic school.
I agree that they do not match-up as well from from a small/private to large/public standpoint, but I have a tough time seeing how that gets me to the ACC. Something to consider, but not something that would preclude them moving.
LikeLike
we just don’t think that institutional fit is a problem. no one is forced to do or compromise anything on the academic side. and we are not going to force you to abanson Catholicism. we have a few ourselves. and on the athletic fields you are as big an instituion as any of us. the institutional fit is just an excuse. but as I said befor if Notre Dame doesn’t want to join thats your business. but I don’t buy your excuses. the reasons are more emotional and perception of past histories.
LikeLike
http://www.und.com/genrel/020599aaa.html
LikeLike
Plus:
More scheduling flexibility.
Better institutional and cultural fit.
Better attitude. I don’t hear ACC fans pissing all over ND and then expressing how grateful ND should be for the shower and should sign up for a lifetime of more.
LikeLike
+1 for that post, PN!.
LikeLike
yea sure. and Notre Dame fans are choir boys that never piss on anyone else. sure.
LikeLike
As a proud alum from a school that is so often described as “irrelevant” on this board and others, I must say that I am humbled by the constant scheming and planning, time, energy and effort that is directed towards “forcing” my little, undergraduate-oriented, non-AAU alma mater towards joining a larger collective against its will and against the wishes of at least 75% of its alums.
Frank, let me understand your argument: RU and Pitt leave for the Big Ten. Georgetown, St Johns, Seton Hall, DePaul, Marquette, Providence, and Villanova leave the Big East to form the Great Catholic Conference. Syracuse, Connecticut, Louisville, Cinncinnati, West Virginia, USF remain. They are forced to add two teams to their football — UCF and someone else. Since the non-MBB teams of the Great Catholic conference are weak (and they are), ND is forced to join the Big Ten. In this scenario do the remaining Big East teams disband their non-football programs? If not, then why wouldn’t ND simply continue to compete in all non-football sports in the Big East and continue with our football independence? We already compete against them and if this split occurs, then the remaining Big East non-football leagues should be stronger, not weaker, correct? I probably won’t be able to respond again in this thread for a day or two — I am traveling.
My silence does not mean “he is stunned by the reasoning that leads ND to join the Big Ten because the Big Ten took RU and ND doesn’t get to hang out with DePaul and Seton Hall.” If it looks like there is collusion among four conferences to have eight bids to the BCS and then a +2 for the NC, then ND will have to jump. I will expect our leaders to wait for four superconferences to be formed, for the lawsuits dismissed and every political wrinkle to play out before they are “forced to join.”
LikeLike
@rich2 I think Frank addressed that above.
As far as the fans go… that is why ND should go to the Big Ten… at least there would be entertainment value. Do you not think that all the comments that go back between teams do not add to the sports atmosphere. A UM fan might have osme choice words fro an MSU student or OSU student, it does not mean that UM does not respect the entire university. Also, this is a fan perspective and not a university perspective.
I am not a fan of ND to Big Ten, but I feel that is where they will end up in the end.
LikeLike
Rich–I have to agree with you. I am tired of all the fascination with ND. I would say screw ND and get on with expansion.
LikeLike
“I don’t hear ACC fans pissing all over ND and then expressing how grateful ND should be for the shower and should sign up for a lifetime of more.”
Wow, a pissed off Texas fan trying to sow discord elsewhere because things aren’t breaking his way.
Who’da thunk it?
Really, PN, you ought to back away from the keyboard for a bit. The Big Ten isn’t going to act like Texas in the Big 12 by trying to strongarm schools that don’t want to be a part of it. Big Ten membership is offered, it’s valuable, but it’s the same offer anyone else gets and if it gets turned down, then the Big Ten moves on.
LikeLike
So… Why exactly does “Notre Dame hates joining the Big Ten almost as much as they love independence…”?
LikeLike
hell if I know but read the vitriol on the ND boards. and as they come to believe the Big Ten has plotted to force them to give up their independance it only gets worse. Its not the administration that has this feeling but the concern is that the alumni who contribute to ND do.
LikeLike
and as they come to believe the Big Ten has plotted to force them to give up their independance it only gets worse.
Wonder wherever we got that idea from :-p
LikeLike
the same place as the rest of your delusins no doubt
LikeLike
facepalm
LikeLike
try the side of your head. it might bring you back to your senses.
LikeLike
Double facepalm.
Sorry Hank, he’s got a point.
LikeLike
The same reason A&M rails against Texas. They’re situated under a very big BT shadow. The Big Ten has always been big, and its now at 12 schools and likely to get bigger. Everyone of them dwarfs Notre Dame in size. Half the Big Ten schools are within a short drive. Two are in the same smallish-sized state. It’s at least part of why they continually stress how “national” they are and how “regional” the Big Ten is, even though the student population at Notre Dame is actually more homogenous by most objective measures. It’s why they claim to be independent, even if they don’t mention they’re talking about just one single sport, a quarter of whose games are played against the Big Ten anyway. (Meaning all this “indpendence” talks comes down to 9 games per year.) It’s why they care about (or even know about) supposed grudges dating back 100 years. And why they’re so critical about BT academics, (which is actually a great strength), but say not a word about academics of any other league–including the one they don’t seem to know they’re in.
I don’t mean all this as a criticism. In a way I can’t blame them. Most of us would rail against 12 larger brothers. And it’s human nature, I think that you tend to emphasize that which distinguishes you, mold that to your identity, and tout those characteristics as a virtue.
LikeLike
Off-topic. Did you know Wisconsin doesn’t have a baseball team? I didn’t.
LikeLike
I did. They don’t seem to be inclined to form one either.
LikeLike
I’ll also add that no one would like to feel muscled or manipulated by those 12 big brothers into a conference either, Big Ten or otherwise.
Can’t blame them for that. Everyone wants to feel in control of his own destiny, not drifting passively with the prevailing tide.
LikeLike
FLP – UW dropped baseball back in ’91 b/c of Athletic Dept debt. Title IX is arguably the biggest reason why it won’t be back anytime soon/ever.
LikeLike
Wisconsin dropped baseball nearly 20 years ago along with mens and womens gymnastics and fencing in a cost-cutting/Title IX move. I know the talk on this blog is of the mega-dollar TV deals, but the reality is most athletic depts’ revenue streams don’t match their expenditures. With skyrocketing tuition and state budget cutbacks, it’s going to be harder for universities to continue the toy dept. subsidy without student/lawmaker pushback. Every university president should be conducting a rigorous cost/benefit analysis to determine the true value of continuing to participate in the big time sports arms race.
LikeLike
There’s always an excuse with Domers as far as Big Ten membership: (1) we’re a national school — joining a conference makes us regional, (2) we’re a secular school — they don’t share our values, (3) we don’t want to lower our academic standards, (4) the ACC is a better cultural fit, (5) our “rivalries” with UM, Mich State, & Purdue are the exception to all of our other reasons for not joining, etc., etc., etc.
I personally think the Big Ten is only guilty of posturing and positioning in trying to enlist ND. What I’d like to point out to Domers is this: with the exception of yourselves, most college football fans ACROSS THE NATION think you belong in the Big Ten.
Where do you think that’s coming from? Is everyone plotting against you?
Oh and BTW, that “fans pissing on other fans” goes the other way too. I’ve seen my share of Domers insulting the Big Ten and its members.
LikeLike
The reason ND loves independence so much is that they cherish a mediocre schedule to boost statistics.
They’d sink like a BP oil rig in the B10.
Too soon?
LikeLike
I would think that the cost to the fan base of appeasing their desires for independence would be a very large increase in all ticket prices, and an corresponding aggressive increase in minimum donation levels to the ND booster organization. If it costs the ADept more to stay independent for football, then the alums/fans are going to have to eat that cost, because the university general budget is certainly not going to do so; in fact Univ admins expect $$ from the ADept to the general fund.
Will be interesting if the alumni pocketbook is willing to support the alumni ego to maintain independence for football.
LikeLike
Add
LikeLike
If the all Catholic schools split off I think they would add to their membership. Schools like Xavier with possibilities of SLU or Dayton would be in good position to leave the A10
LikeLike
If A&M decides to stay with the family, no matter how dysfunctional they may be,
The SEC would possibly stay at 12.
Will the big Ten be happy at 12?
Or do they go for 16? because a 14 team option with ND is unlikely. If SEC stay put.
LikeLike
my guess would be that they bide their time. continue informal discussions while integrating Nebraska. see if anything shakes loose over the near term.
LikeLike
Now I hope A&M goes to the SEC. (not that I really cared)
Because that would make them active possibly in the ACC, which could shake things up a bit.
But without some indirect help. 14 is out of the question with ND. Because we would have to shake the BE tree with two teams first. to pry them lose.
LikeLike
Agree. I am rooting for A&M to SEC, just because it clearly shows that SEC will go to 14 (one would believe) and provide additional evidence that there is a “seismic shift” that would get ND moving.
Without an SEC move, we could be looking at a Pac 16 and just staring at each other for a while until the next big move. I may be fired for lack of productivity should that scenario occur, so lets hope that A&M moves and then other dominoes start falling shortly after.
LikeLike
Hey Nall
Slive might be smart just going after Missouri if they land A&M, so not to stir up the ACC.
They get their 14th and don’t help the Big Ten pry anyone lose.
The SEC plays great D. does Slive?
LikeLike
@ willarm
I would think the SEC would be more interested in adding high-profile matches, rather than a territory grab. They have no channel of their own, so their television value comes from nationally-relevant or other high-interest games. Adding mizzou doesn’t seem to add any rivalries to the SEC line up and probably won’t have national title implications.
Louisville vs UK is pretty low-interest as rivalries go, but it would avoid knocking the ACC dominoes.
LikeLike
kyle,
UK views UL like tOSU views Cincy.
The long term rival for UK is IU in basketball & football. As IU has been down, it has been one sided – but when IU comes back – UL will be a distant memory.
LikeLike
@ duffman
That bad, eh? It’s not like UK has the football pedigree of Ohio State; I assumed that a long-term even series indicated some level of equality/respect.
LikeLike
@ Kyle
I think the UK-U of L match up is much more of a hatefest than tOSU-Cincy. Let’s face it, tOSU doesn’t care, and Cincy’s only been good enough to give them a game in football in the last five years or so. I’d say the closer analogy is GT-UGa.
Of course, since both UK and U of L are basketball schools, you notice it a lot more in the Dream Game than the Governor’s Cup.
LikeLike
kyle,
it comes from childhood, go to a high school game in Indiana or Kentucky and the competition starts from there. The weekend was the boys and girls games (2 in KY and 2 in IN) of high school all stars. It is IU vs UK rivalry in training. It is hard for many to fathom, but if you were born and raised in either state you know most states just do not have this level of obsession for basketball at such an early age.
On football, IU and UK are not the stars of their respective conferences so the game has historically been heated as they are pretty level on the gridiron. If it helps think IU vs UK as hatfields vs mccoys. Think of UK vs UL as something to fill the time till IU gets strong again.
IU vs UK in the in the old dome holds like 7 of the top 10 in attendance in the country for regular season non conference games. UL vs UK has not gotten to that level yet.
LikeLike
duffman, agreed about the Ind & Ky passion for hoops; also played in the KY-Ind hoops all-star game a few decades back. It’s intense.
LikeLike
I disagree with 14 being out of the question, esp. if Pac 16 comes into existence. Ultimately, in next 6-12 months, BT will go to 14 with or without ND>
LikeLike
willarm1 – If A&M comes to the SEC and assuming that UTx and OU are off the the Pac 16, I think the SEC would have to look East for one team, then call expansion quits at 14. I seriously doubt that Mizzou, Baylor, Kansas, or FEDEXMemphis moves the needle enough for CBS/ESPN to pay for expansion.
I continue to believe that FSU is the best choice for #14, but VA Tech is not far behind.
LikeLike
+1 Alan.
I hope they go ACC, because that would help The Big Ten get ND, because the ACC would likely take a BE school as filler.
Giving Delany some wiggle room and the chance at staying at 14 with say Rutgers, ND or Pitt ND. etc.
But the more I look at it Missouri may be a good block from Slive, not kicking the ACC bees nest for Delany. and lessening the chances at ND possibly.
LikeLike
willarm1 – Based on the last SEC expansion, and based on who the SEC is talking to this time, I really think the SEC is more interested in “fit” than the Big Ten. If the SEC got FSU or VA Tech, and they really wanted one of those schools, I don’t think they would care if their move made it more likely for the Big Ten to get UMd.
To put it in NFL draft terms, UTx is the best available athlete, you take the best available athlete, otherwise draft for position needs.
LikeLike
Agreed. Product would be more important.
That damn chess analogy has me playing D.
FSU would be a HR. Do you think florida would try to block?
Va Tech also is a HR IMO. wish they were AAU.
LikeLike
Willarm1 – I don’t know where all this UF to block FSU stuff is coming from. They play each other annually, so bringing FSU into the SEC frees up an OOC game for UF. Its very doubtful that UGA would block GA Tech for the same reason.
LikeLike
Just so much recruiting competition in Florida but only one SEC team.
With the unbelievable success of the conference I think it is a major selling point for Fla. over The U and Fla State.
I can see Florida wanting to be the only show in town so to speak.
I’m sure Meyer will bitch about it. that guy needs to relax a bit.
LikeLike
@Alan
My understanding of the Florida FSU game is that it was basically state mandated and that the two schools fight fairly heavily in regards to state funding and where that funding goes.
Don’t know it to be truth myself as all my info comes from sites like this, but FWIW.
LikeLike
PSUGuy – FSU & UF do fight for state funding, but I fail to see why that would preclude them being in the same conference. UF did not stand in FSU’s way back in the 90s. FSU joined the ACC because of Bobby Bowdin. He thought FSU would have a better shot at national championships in the ACC.
LikeLike
Alan, I’m almost 100% certain that UF, UGA, and Bama have blocked FSU from coming (all it takes is one more vote to officially block it but I don’t think Slive wants to test it). It boils down to recruiting. They want to keep their SEC membership as leverage when recruiting against FSU. A very prominent Bama sports reporter for the Tuscaloosa news (if you know anything about the Tuscaloosa news, you know who I’m talking about) stated on Tiderinsider that FSU’s neighbors have indeed blocked FSU (this reaffirms to me the rumor that I posted yesterday). Now this is coming from a Bama site and with Bama spin, but when this reporter talks, I usually listen (he is actually the only Bama beat writer that I give any credence what so ever to). I also read in another article (I can’t remember which one) that FSU, Clemson, and GT are off the table for now. Just passing along what’s being talked about over there.
LikeLike
Do you think there might be time for Slive to discuss SEC membership with Pitt, Notre Dame and UNC to go with A&M?
LikeLike
I think that there is still time (and I’m guessing that they probably are) for them to discuss it with OU.
LikeLike
Supposedly Oklahoma has reconfirmed earlier today their, “Thank you but no thanks to the SEC.”
LikeLike
Midwest Aggie, You are probably right, but it isn’t over until it is over.
With that said, what happened to OU? When did they lose their manhood and become UT’s lapdog? I used to think that they are one of the great historic football schools and marched to their own drum. I didn’t realize that they’d started breast feeding on UT’s teet :). They could really tighten the screws on UT right now if they at least stated that they’d listen to the SEC and at least gained some negotiating power when the Pac 16 details are decided.
LikeLike
OU sees their future secured at this time by being with Texas.
The SEC path, though the payouts will roughly be the same as the PAC-XX, will be harder to rack up wins and get championships.
LikeLike
WVU ==> NO WAY
Va Tech ==> My bet for SEC
a) new market
b) fits with A&M
c) football fanbase
d) good academics
f) good balance
g) not mentioned in the NO list from earlier (FSU, Clemson, Miami, Ga Tech)
h) SEC and ACC are ESPN
LikeLike
I fully expect the BigTen to go to 16 teams under the original timeline set up last December. IMO, this time (or maybe a bit earlier) next year we’ll see the “final four” or nothing.
The Nebraska joining, I think, caught the BT by surprise as they realized they needed to act immediately to get them on board while the Pac was making its moves. Thus the “work on integration” comments.
LikeLike
Frank,
Have been reading for months and can’t get enough. Question: If Big Ten can pry Notre Dame to add with Nebraska and what appears to be Rutgers, does it make sense to grab a No. 15 and 16? I know subscribers to BT Network are an important consideration but outside of Maryland – which seems like a very tough pry – there don’t seem to be many logical candidates that properly pay their freight.
Second question: As a Louisville alum I would love to hear your detailed thoughts on the outlook for a program like ours. Great facilities, top AD and legitimate target for expansion if ACC or SEC look for add’l members or we’d be a linchpin for a revamped, football-only Big East. We just have to wait for others to act.
LikeLike
SEC would be a great landing site for the Cards…except I doubt UK will let that happen.
I don’t know if the Academics are acceptable to the ACC? If they are, that’s likely where U of L will end up if the ACC goes to 16. But it’ll probably be a while before that happens. U of L will have to hope the Football Big East can hold together until then, otherwise it’s back to CUSA.
LikeLike
And I just now looked down and realized I posted that wearing my U of L baseball T-shirt.
Before anyone gets the wrong Idea, I did wear my Play Like A Champion Today shirt to Mass this morning.
LikeLike
I fully expect a 15 and 16.
IMO, if the three are Neb, ND, and Rutgers I push hard for Syracuse to help “ease” some of ND’s cultural fit concerns (while getting them to up there research $$$) and make sure we get the New York (state) tv markets.
At which point do we think Mizzou or Pitt is better (I really like MD, I just don’t think they’ll be available).
LikeLike
add Notre Dame, Maryland, Syracuse, Rutgers to go along with Penn State, Ohio State, and (hopefully soon) Michigan, and the Big Ten will have a nice lacrosse league for the BTN.
LikeLike
JDA,
I am a CAF person, there is NO WAY UL finds a home in the SEC. I was around when TJ got RP. I have many family in da ville, and the problem is footprint. The Cards have made some big advances but they still fight UK in their home market (as a UC alum I know the feeling as they are the home university but UK and tOSU dominate the market). JH who got the new arena going has long ties to UK and many would fight if push came to shove.
I had suggested a God & Country Conference that would have 8 catholic BB teams and the following FB teams..
UC + UL (with catholic schools like X / Trinity in Louisville and X / Moeller in Cincinnati)
Army + Navy
BC + ND
Uconn + Syracuse
could be possible if ND could not keep BE status
I think TJ has done wonders but for UL football to get to the next level they will have to stay strong for awhile so they become a destination job, not a stepping stone. HS put them on the right track and if JA makes it to frankfort with SB, it can not hurt Louisville long term. The day the CJ just has UL sports, and not IU + UK as well, you will know the Cards have hit that next level.
At this point, If KU, K State ect join the BE, I think it will strengthen and is a good fit for UL for quite some time. I think whatever happens UL is in a pretty good spot so relax. They have made some academic upgrades, but need to make more if the ACC should call.
LikeLike
Emails… should get 5000 of them in the next few days. lol
LikeLike
“The athletic department size disparity between Notre Dame and the Catholic Big East members is the equivalent of USC or UCLA moving their non-football sports to the West Coast Conference. That’s just not going to cut it for an athletic department of Notre Dame’s size and stature, no matter how much its alumni base believes football independence matters more than everything else combined.”
Why is it exactly that this won’t cut it for Notre Dame? First, besides football and basketball, no other sports make any money–in fact, they’re money losers financed by football. Does anyone in any numbers really watch or follow any other sports? From this perspective, I can see why showing respect to the other sports is politically correct, but in the end, football decisions should be paramount. Not field hockey, volleyball or track. Particularly at Notre Dame where football appears to be so closely tied to their identity.
While I’m not a domer, it’s hard for me to grasp the idea that they couldn’t stay independent in football and remain in the Catholic league for other sports–basketball, in fact, would be great. Maybe I’m a dinosaur, but I can’t see how any of the other sports should be dictating terms to the one sport that’s providing for them to even exist.
LikeLike
@djinnndjinn – ND spends a lot of money on its entire athletic department, which is something that schools without football programs can’t really do. The Irish could do that in theory, but it would be (1) worse competition, (2) lower revenue and (3) higher travel costs overall compared to the Big Ten. It’s extremely hard to justify taking less revenue AND throwing your non-revenue sports under the bus. Football is supposed to help all of those other sports instead of hurting them. Even for men’s basketball, the Big Ten Network monetizes that sport much better than the current Big East contract (and the disparity will be worse if there’s a split league).
LikeLike
Frank:
You and I have had this discussion before. As you know, I have long held the opinion that ND will end up “sacrificing” its non-revenue sports in the end to save its football independence.
I still hold this belief. You say that “its extremely hard to justify taking less revenue AND throwing your non-revenue sports under the bus.”
Justify to whom?
ND doesn’t have to justify such a move to its alumni, students and fan base.
That is the move that the great majority of these constituents want ND to do.
Justify to the Big Ten or the media? ND doesn’t care about that too much.
In the end, you may be right and I may be wrong.
I still think that, other than wishful thinking and opinions by non-ND folks.
LikeLike
The big concern would be NDs olympic athletes. There is a lot of pride in the high level some of the ND athletes compete at and an all Catholic lead would greatly diminish that.
LikeLike
Terry, I think they have to justify it to their own student population. I think ND has a pretty rich Olympic sport history that has significant value to the university. Is it enough to tip the scale? maybe.
LikeLike
IMO it stems from athletic culture. ND plays a lot of sports and likes to compete in all of them. If it doesn’t have a home for those sports those its puts a lot more stress (financially) on the football operations to support them.
On the other hand the other Catholic schools tend to support a minimal amount of sports. Thus ND would literally have no one (in the conference) to play against and would be forced to travel far and possibly not even find teams to compete against, thus forcing them to shut down sports.
Basically, Frank’s (interesting) point is that the line floated around here that the destruction of the BigEast would just allow ND to join an “all Catholic” sports conference might not hold up against athletic program realities.
LikeLike
Notre Dame has invested a lot of money into making their athletic program a perennial top 25 finisher in the Director’s Cup. you don’t drop your other sports teams into the minor leagues just so your football team can keep its independence. i guess they could, but i would respect Notre Dame even less.
LikeLike
Swarbrick and the ND brass think in terms of what’s best for Notre Dame as a whole.
This is like how a lot of UT fans want UT to be in the SEC just to be in the conference with the best athletic fit.
(Just insert ND for UT and the notion of independence for the conference discussion)
LikeLike
FROM the Pitt Scout page:
Here is What the ACC Should Try and Implement.
(1) Add Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and UConn
All are Tier 1 institutions with Pitt and Cuse being AAU members. Syracuse will rebound at football at some point in the future and have an elite basketball program. Same with UConn being elite in basketball, they are also a good football program currently. Pitt brings both football and basketball to the conference. Large TV markets are also added with these three teams (and in Pitt’s case, a good national numbers as well).
(2) Offer Notre Dame their Independence in Football
Notre Dame is Notre Dame and I respect them for holding to tradition and history despite the Big Ten’s greed trying to break them from both those aspects. ACC should offer Notre Dame the following agreement:
–Notre Dame remains an independent in football, though will arrange to play 4 games each year against ACC opponents (2 home and 2 away each season)
–Notre Dame will be able to participate in ACC bowl scenarios based on record and ranking to determine which bowls may select them.
–Full members in basketball and non-revenue sports
–Full academic member
(3) Decide on Rutgers or WVU
WVU brings much greater appeal and better athletics than Rutgers by far, but their biggest issue will be academics. I mean in the scenario above, the ACC is the best academic conference in the country. Adding WVU and their Tier 3 status would hurt that “bragging rights”. Also while they have some decent national appeal when looking at TV ratings previously, they dont bring much in terms of market being in a state with no major cities. Rutgers on the other hand brings academics and the “potential” for NYC to be tapped in the future for football (basketball it would remain access to that talent level for the major players in the ACC). Rutgers does not bring much appeal locally or nationally with their athletics though. Its also possible Rutgers may already be or prefer the mid-west conference for additional revenue over athletic appeal.
There are other non-BCS teams that could be reasonably considered, but these two is where I think it would ultimately come down to in the end.
(4) Review the ESPN Agreement
According to our ACC friends, the ACC-ESPN TV agreement has only been agreed to in principle but remains unsigned at this time. This would have to instantly be reviewed and negotiated to account for the new teams, markets, and appeal they bring. If the right amount and TV dates overall are agreeable, then go that route. If not, agree only for the major TV deals and consider starting an ACC Network which should do extremely well given the basketball teams in the conference. Look for a partnership with say Comcast (who will own NBC by that time and who by the way also has a deal with Notre Dame) to start it off similar to the BTNs deal with Fox/DirectTV.
(5) Neutral Site Championship Game is Finished
Play the game at the home stadium of the highest ranked/best record team in the conference. All revenue generated by the game will go to the collective pot that gets dealt out following bowl games. Otherwise, the ACC Championship game at a neutral site right before bowl season with only a week to prepare for fans’ travel is going to still be a low attended event in most years.
(6) New Bowl Deals
Pinstripe Bowl would come into the fold with the new ACC + Notre Dame affiliation and would probably be against the new Big Ten. Considering they are already paying $2 million per team, the new teams adding to the mix with New York Cities appeal could add additional money to the pot.
Other games would also soon be up for debate including Big East and Big 12 deals that will be looking for teams.
(7) A New Basketball Era
People cannot ignore the ACC’s tradition in basketball. Cannot also ignore that the conference up until now has revolved around the state of North Carolina. But adding these teams also add markets, including one that is called the Mecca of Basketball…Madison Square Garden. With two divisions likely to separate the ACC in this expansion (one with focus in the North and one in the South), consider rotating the game between NYC and say Raleigh. Or extend that one further and just rotate the game each year between select northern facilities (Consol Energy Center, Madison Square Garden, Wachovia Center, Verizon Center, etc) and southern facilities (TWC Arena, Phillips Arena, American Airlines Arena, etc). A conference championship game would be decent and well traveled to in any of these places.
(8) Improve the ACCIAC
The IAC is the relative equivalent to the Big Ten’s CIC. The funding for the program comes directly from the athletic programs as it is today. Study abroad, conference, visiting scholars, grants/scholarships, etc are all part of the current IAC. What should happen is a proposal to really and truly come together as research institutions and focus on research activities between conference members where there is a good fit. An ACCIAC research database of all current project would be shared within the conference with contact information available for partnerships and potential to work on grants and other funding together. Could really help improve all conference members.
LikeLike
no special deals. if Notre Dame doesn’t want to join then they won’t join. no special deal.
LikeLike
my bad, I thought you were talking Big Ten. but the ACC is to good a conference to make that deal either.
LikeLike
Pitt fans have just gone off the deep end over the idea that location has made Rutgers a potential Big Ten candidate and basically cost Pitt an easy invitation (because they fit almost every other criteria).
That is the only way they can possibly say “Rutgers does not bring much appeal locally” when RU has expanded their stadium because of demand and Pitt has trouble drawing fans to their rented stadium. In addition, Pitt’s poor history of bowl travel is one of the reasons the Big East has such crappy bowl tie-ins.
LikeLike
Unlike Rutgers promoters, Pitt just has a database that goes back more than five years.
LikeLike
And yet they still have more empty seats than filled seats on gameday.
LikeLike
Big East Teams will not move until Big Ten makes their decisions… if you are on a short list of possible Big Ten teams (Rutgers, Pitt, Syracuse, not so much UCONN) why take your name off the list.
LikeLike
I don’t know about the other schools but I don’t see a way Rutgers could refuse an ACC invitation if it came in the near term. Rutgers experience as an independent before 1992 would have to scare them into taking the sure thing ACC spot instead of waiting for a Big Ten invite that might never come.
LikeLike
I’m pretty sure Rutgers would call the Big Ten and say they got an ACC invite.
I’m also pretty certain that the Big Ten would trump the offer.
Delany wants NYC. Rutgers is the best possible shot at NYC with a school not named Notre Dame.
LikeLike
I’d go a step further: every Big East football program would accept an invite from the SEC, ACC, or Big Ten at the drop of a hat. Every single one.
LikeLike
I don’t know. The A.C.C. should grab Syracuse, UConn, Pitt, and WVU and see what happens.
That gives them a Northern side that is BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, Virginia, Maryland, and Va Tech. A Southern side of Duke, UNC, NC State, Wake, Clemson, Ga Tech, Miami, Florida St.
Strong in football, incredible basketball, and not too shabby in a variety of other minor sports too.
Covers all of the NE to Florida, except for the PA/NJ area. It’s Joe Paterno’s dream come true, only without him.
Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, and WVU would jump at the opportunity to have a landing place. WVU is not a B10 candidate. Pitt, Syracuse, and UConn have to be concerned with being left out of the B10.
Rutgers then gets to be with Missouri, hoping that being a frontrunner out of the gate was worth it.
LikeLike
There’ll be no jumping at the opportunity because:
1] All of those schools are extremely wary of the ACC because of the way they conducted the 2003 raid and how mediocre the conference has been since then. if both the ACC and Big East lose teams, they will probably put bygones aside and circle the wagons, but until then…
2] Pitt and Syracuse have a considerable interest in monitoring Big Ten invites until Delaney announces an end to expansion. So they wouldn’t dream of taking the sure-money ACC deal when Big Ten spots are still out there. Both are great enough schools/brands that the ACC should be willing to wait for them.
LikeLike
Kyle—Syracuse might rightfully believe that the ACC is the better match. And Pitt fans are pretty much 50-50 between the ACC and BT>
LikeLike
Good plan and one I think the ACC should implement.
As some have mentioned though, who’s going to jump there when there’s a legitimate shot of going to the BigTen?
LikeLike
That is only a good plan if the ACC hasn’t signed their tv contract yet. They should’ve held off until all this expansion plays out.
LikeLike
I agree with Bamatab. The fact that the ACC has signed their TV deals and that they’re not likely to get them renegotiated means they have to stand pat (which I assume is what he was implying).
LikeLike
That is what I was implying. According to what Orange posted here, The Pitt scout site appears to be claiming that the ACC hasn’t officially signed the contract. If that is the case, then they can expand and renegotiate. But if they haven’t, then they are out of luck as far as I can tell.
LikeLike
If their lawyers did not have SOME sort of provision recognizing that “seismic shifts” were imminent, I’d be shocked and disappointed. Having to rely on delayed signing seems like a very non-professional way to do it.
There has to be more…
LikeLike
I’ve seen an ESPN employee who is a GT alumni indicate that the contract hasn’t been signed by either the ACC or ESPN. Nothing holding it up other than the lawyers doing their billable hour dance.
LikeLike
If the lawyers who negotiated the ACC TV deal did not include an opt out if expansion occurs,… they may want to pull out their malpractice policy!
LikeLike
I completely agree that A&M should go with the SEC. Cash, stability, proximity, football tradition, and culture all suggest the SEC is the way to go. Plus they are a huge and good quality school on their own. There is no reason to stay in Texas’ shadow.
I’d make the same case of Oklahoma, in fact.
LikeLike
just adding
LikeLike
@ Frank
You forgot to tell everybody about the new post. A lot of us get the replies through e-mail.
LikeLike
?
I got my notice thru Email.
LikeLike
He usually announce it in a reply to the previous blog.
LikeLike
This was scarier 2 weeks ago, when the Big East was looking at choosing between UCF, ECU, and Memphis. Now they could likely get KU and Mizzou to replace two. Frank’s information is likely better than my speculation, but it seems to me that a split if the Big East loses two is no longer a foregone conclusion.
As for the viability of the non-football Big East as a conference, that could be tricky. Five Baseball playing schools, five lax schools, and Six Men’s Tennis schools don’t really make it seem like a big time conference. That said, the Lax league is new. Big Ten only has three lacrosse teams: tOSU men’s, tOSU women, and Northwestern women.
The question of viability for Notre Dame will be answered if bringing in other schools will be cost-effective. If the league can go to twelve, bringing in at least 3 baseball and lax teams, that should sure up the conference. I’ll leave it to Tags and Marinatto to come up with that list, since isn’t that what we’re paying them for? So what if it’s nowhere near as good as the Big East, it’s a home for the non-revenue sports.
The real question for me in all of this is what TPTB at ND want. Citing the Olympic sports as an excuse for PR purposes is a no go. The reason they are non-revenue is because not enough people care.
LikeLike
FLP – “The real question for me in all of this is what TPTB at ND want. Citing the Olympic sports as an excuse for PR purposes is a no go. The reason they are non-revenue is because not enough people care.”
Perhaps FANS don’t care about them but I’m not sure that is how the ND admins view them.
But I agree THAT alone will not be enough. I think it’s the cumulative effect that might ND succumb unless the ACC throws them a life-raft similar to their current BE deal.
As for the olympic sports, I think it is more than simply can the Catholic League field the number of teams the current Big East does (they will not), but it goes to the competitiveness of the conference and to the sub-par facilities in which these olympic sports will be competing.
Of the bb schools, the only two that field competitive teams in multiple sports on a consistent basis are St. John’s and Georgetown.
Since the New Big East Formed (Non-Football Championships)
ND – 50 (16, that first year 2005-06, haven’t been as dominating since)
UL – 31
UConn – 27
SU – 13
G’Town – 10
St. John’s – 10
All the rest are single digits of 6 or less (basically 1 a year or less).
Last 4 years –
ND – 34
UL – 27
UConn – 19
SU – 12 (would be more if men’s lacrosse was in play all 5 years)
G’Town – 10
St. John’s – 10
Here is an excerpt from Fall 2003 written by John Heisler, Assistant AD at Notre Dame, something I’m sure you are aware of FLP, but non-Irish fans might not be:
“In 1980 most of Notre Dame’s Olympic sports were fledgling at best. Scholarships were minimal, if not nonexistent, for many Irish sports. Those teams weren’t expected to compete for national titles (the perennially successful fencing program was an exception), and there were no budgets to recruit or schedule nationally.
Now, while Notre Dame football intrinsically hasn’t changed all that much over these past 23 years, the college football landscape has — and so has the commitment to Notre Dame’s 25 other sports.
As Athletic Director Gene Corrigan and successors **** RosenthIal and Wadsworth gradually increased the institutional commitment to the various Olympic sports programs, Notre Dame outgrew its independent status. That prompted a move (for most sports except football and men’s basketball) to the Midwest City Conference (later the Midwestern Collegiate Conference) in 1982-83. The move created a new series of meaningful goals that included league titles, all-conference honors and guaranteed access to NCAA postseason competition. Suddenly, Irish games took on greater importance when the players knew first place was on the line. And, as Notre Dame further ramped up its institutional commitments, the Irish became the dominant program in the MCC, eventually outgrowing that level of competition.
That dominance and the interest in creating better platforms from which its basketball programs could compete prompted a move to the Big East Conference for the 1995-96 athletic season.”
LikeLike
Well, the MCC was going downhill at that point. In 1994, the conference was:
Butler
Loyola-Chicago
Xavier
Detroit Mercy
La Salle
Clev. St.
Ill.-Chicago
NIU
Wisc.-GB
Wisc.-Mil.
Wright St.
and ND.
As a Catholic conference in the beginning, it was OK. But once the MCC started adding teams adding a hypen, it was time to move on for the Irish.
I can see why if I’m the ND AD why I would consider recommending joining the Big Ten. That said, considering what we are discussing is the most major political issue in ND’s universe, I can’t imagine this decision will be based on Olympic sports. If the administration decides to go to the Big Ten, in light of http://www.und.com/genrel/020599aaa.html I can’t see how they can use the we need a conference for the other sports argument in any way that will mollify anyone.
LikeLike
Agree, but I believe Swarbrick has said what it will take and ND fans are closing their eyes shut to what it will take.
First and foremost, the seismic change in college athletics. If the Pac-10 and SEC go BEYOND 12, then that seismic change is coming.
Second, if the stability of the Big East is threatened. By him constantly mentioning it, don’t you think he is saying quite explicitly, a Catholic Big East League will not suffice?
LikeLike
@Omnicarrier
Good point. At the end of the day, though, it’s not his call. I can see why he might make the recommendation, but it’s still merely a recommendation.
LikeLike
I tend to agree with both of your points actually.
The only way I see ND having to join a conference is if the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10 are all approaching 16 and considering 9 game conference schedules.
If the ACC looks ready to raid the Big East at that point, I could see ND possibly joining a conference.
But as of now, the Pac-10 is at 11, the SEC and Big Ten are at 12.
Over the next week, we might see the Pac-16 and SEC-13, but we really have to wait.
Quite a few more dominoes have to fall before ND has to make a decision about anything…
LikeLike
This is actually a great argument for ending football independence. I think their independence hurts their w/l record. And the national schedule is really the NBC schedule. Prior to the NBC contract, ND usually scheduled 6 to 7 games against teams from Chicago to Boston. That sounds pretty regional to me. The SEC didn’t even mandate 7 games until late 70s or early 80s.
LikeLike
the national schedule is really the NBC schedule. Prior to the NBC contract, ND usually scheduled 6 to 7 games against teams from Chicago to Boston.
1949 ND Sched
IU
Washington
Purdue
Tulane
Navy
MSU
UNC
Iowa
USC
SMU
1966 ND Sched
Purdue
Northwestern
Army
UNC
Oklahoma
Navy
Pitt
Duke
MSU
USC
1977 ND Sched
Pitt
Ole Miss
Purdue
MSU
Army
USC
Navy
GT
Clemson
Air Force
Miami
Texas (Cotton Bowl)
Looks pretty national to me. Try again.
LikeLike
You probably had to look long and hard for 77.
How about 67:
Purdue
Iowa
Illinois
Michigan St.
Pitt
Navy
GT
Miami FL
Cal
USC
or 78
Missouri
MIchigan
Purdue
Michigan St.
Pitt
Navy
Air Force
Miami FL
GT
Tennessee
USC
Maybe all the GT and Miami FL talk is about Notre Dame. They played both pretty regularly in the 60s/70s.
ND schedule was pretty standard in those years. They played Purdue, Mich. St., NW (until they got really bad), Pitt (until they got really good), Navy, USC, and usually GT and Miami FL.
LikeLike
Careful.
The “non-revenue” sports also include those women’s sports required by Title IX, which is heavily influenced by the 85 scholies for men’s football. ND must maintain the women’s sports, or risk Title IX lawsuits which they will invariably lose.
They can chip away at the other men’s sports, but only for so long until it upsets a critical mass of overly involved, very rich, alumni fathers/mothers of said men’s “non-revenue” athletes.
Your view just kicks the can down the road a bit, but it continues to stay in the way.
LikeLike
Frank..
Have you seen this story going around on the Aggie forum as well as some of the SEC forums (RollTide for sure).. This UF grad lays out his theory that the Big Ten, Pac10, and Texas are all in collusion with ABC/ESPN. Any thoughts ??
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2552h5x
LikeLike
The guy has an interesting take, but most likely wrong — cue in the X-Files song.
The demise of the Big12 was done internally and years ago. Greed is most likely the culprit, and in fact it could be tied back to the SWC days. Texas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M have blame to carry — and since then the rich wanted more at the expense of the others.
As for the money that ABC got to save from the demise of the Big12 and its ability to use it to the newer and bigger conferences like Big10 and PAC10, that is not the whole story. The Big12 television contract was absolutely horrible for not only money payouts but also getting games on the television – even before the day of the SEC and Big10 getting new contracts. The Big12 schools were paid at the bottom end of the spectrum and any new payout will be larger for these programs as they move to new conferences. The Big10 and the SEC commissioners are professional guys that seem to have some acumen when it comes to business (unlike our last two Big12 commissioners).
Speaking for myself as a former student, my biggest complaint about the Texas strong arm tactics has been the media leaks. The spin has always been on how it affects Texas and their bottom line.
The loss of the Thanksgiving Day game between Texas and Texas A&M will not occur. Regardless of how Deloss Dodds bellows. The politicians would not allow for this. It is interesting that there is an internet rumor that Texas is wanting to move its game with Oklahoma from October at the state fair to an early December game at Jerry Jones’ stadium — probably to put more highlight on their conference game.
LikeLike
If A&M goes to SEC and P16 has 9 game schedule, I can see the game going away for a few years until schedules can be adjusted. I don’t see it going away permanently.
I can’t imagine the OU game NOT being at the state fair at the Cotton Bowl. Its such a huge part of the experience. Jerry would have to offer a ton of money-or move the state fair.
LikeLike
Interesting tweets from Steve Sipple of the Lincoln Journal Star.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
@ssipplesports – Am I missing something here? Is Orangebloods now reporting news, and then shooting down its OWN reports? Interesting.
@ssipplesports – Actually, that’s bizarre.
@ssipplesports – Bizarre and disturbing.
@ssipplesports – I refute a report that I went to McDonald’s today. But I did THINK about going to McDonald’s, so that’s probably close enough. Go with it!
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
😀
LikeLike
Is this in regards of the Chip Brown tweet/story saying A&M turned down the PAC10 offer, to only recant later?
LikeLike
Hawkeyes are #76!!!
LikeLike
I’d like to remind everyone that UNL is ALREADY a member of the BT. We no longer need to include them on our wish lists! ; )
BTW, does UNL have a vote on the rest of expansion? Or some type of voice?
LikeLike
No, they do not have a vote at the council of presidents meetings until July 1, 2011 I believe…
Informally though, Nebraska will be involved in any discussion because of the ramifications on travel of adding Rutgers/Maryland/etc.
LikeLike
adding
LikeLike
NCAA Baseball Super Regional Update:
Florida defeated Miami last night to qualify for the CWS.
So far today, 3 other teams qualified for the CWS.
TCU won their S.R. over UTx, 2 games to 1.
Florida State won their S.R. over Vandy 2 games to 1.
South Carolina won their S.R. over Coastal Carolina, 2 games to zero.
Also, Congrats to the Texas A&M Aggies for sweeping the men’s and women’s outdoor NCAA Outdoor Track & Field National Championships, with Coach Pat Henry (who they stole from LSU) leading the way.
LikeLike
Thanks Alan. Yep, we did steal him. May need to steal another great coach if the present coaches don’t live up to SEC competition.
LikeLike
We will let them keep Les Miles. Just kidding with you Alan – seriously, is his job in jeopardy this year?
LikeLike
mwAggie – Les Miles is not in trouble. He’s 2 years removed from a national championship. For his first three years, LSU caught almost every break, and he was a great coach. He was called the Mat Hatter, and Lesticles for his gutsy calls. Then he kicked a five star quarterback off the team, had some bad luck, and gets caught up in the excitement of the game a little too much, but the players love him, he recruits like a maniac, he has a great staff, and he’s a good human being. LSU is in good hands, but some people around here will never accept him, because he’s not Nick Saban.
LikeLike
The Decline Begins TCU 4 UT 1
LikeLike
@ FLP_NDRox
Remember went I brought up the second part of the Northwestern blog rumor and everybody said it cannot be true and will never fly? I told you; this kind of leak will make J. Delany “livid” and you guys trust your catholic friends too much.
LikeLike
Apparently, mmc22, you’re right.
LikeLike
Thank you!
LikeLike
Great post over at TexAgs reading like the Pelican Brief: Lots of great points.
http://www.texags.com/main/forum.reply.asp?topic_id=1639370&forum_id=5
LikeLike
Great points about what?
The Big Ten and Pac-10 and SEC were all self-interested in wanting Texas.
I don’t buy most of that; Delany probably didn’t really think that the Pac-10 would make a “Texas +5” offer and was interested in Texas-ND.
Plus, it’s not as if the Big Ten or Pac-10 can stop the SEC from talking to ACC schools or Big East schools.
LikeLike
Agree. “Great Post” = garbage.
LikeLike
Sorry if already posted, but Larry Scott is headed to Lawrence.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N228PK
LikeLike
Be suspicious of the flight plans filed with the FAA by the pilot of the corporate jet with tail nubmer N228PK.
The pilot changed flight plans in mid-flight TWICE on Sunday:
1. In the morning, the pilot filed a flight plan to land at Huntsville (TX), only to change course in mid-flight and landed at College Station airport.
2. In the afternoon, the pilot filed a flight plan to land at San Marcos, only to request a flight plan change with the FAA in mid-flight to land at Austin International Airport.
==
The flight plan filed by the pilot has the jet departing Austin at 8:10pm Central Time and an estimated time of arrival at Kansas City International (MCI) at 9:48pm Central Time.
We also know that Lawrence, Kansas does have a general aviation airport with a long-enough runway (5700 feet) for corporate jets to land.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lawrence_Municipal_Airport_(Kansas)
If the jet were to land in Kansas City or Lawrence tonight, then Pac-10 officials (Commissioner Larry Scott and Deputy Commissioner Kevin Weiberg) will be in Lawrence on Monday to meet with University of Kansas officials.
That would be the “TELL” to signal that Texas A&M has already turned down the Pac-10 and will head for the SEC.
We’ll know soon enough.
LikeLike
So, KU over Utah? Interesting.
LikeLike
The Pac-10 appears to be more interested in Kansas than Utah, but Kansas will ultimately decide where it wants to go.
I still have my money on Utah to the “Pac-16”.
Why?
Because Kansas is a better fit with the Big East, especially if the Big East were willing to take Missouri and Kansas State as well so that Kansas can maintain its natural rivalries.
(The Big East will have to choose between Iowa State and Memphis to fill out the “west” division of a proposed 12-team football league, being spearheaded by Cincinnati and Louisville.)
LikeLike
Big East is basketball. Kansas would head there without any rivals. Big East makes no money.
The PAC16 will make decent money. They’d head there with longtime rivals OU, OkSt, Texas?, Texas Tech?, Colorado. PAC16 has football cred.
Kansas would be stupid to head east instead of west if the offer is there.
LikeLike
@ allthatyoucantleavebehind
The point is Kansas my not get a Pac-16 ticket (or may get one one be politically unable to ditch K-state). The Big East idea is that the Big East would take ALL of the Big XII orphans, not just Kansas in a vacuum. Kansas, K-state, iowa state, maybe baylor and Mizzou in a western division with louisville and Cincy.
This could only happen late in the expansion game, after the principal movers are settled and the remainder of the Big East has made it’s Football/Catholic split.
LikeLike
Do you have any inside info on UC & UL spearheading this BE12 FB conf?
LikeLike
Is it possible that KU/KSU are a contingency plan in case OU decides to join aTm in the SEC.
LikeLike
OU issued a press release on Saturday to acknowledge that OU officials met with Scott and Weiberg.
The AP even picked up the story.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/ncaa/06/12/oklahoma.pac10.ap/index.html
OU is headed for the “Pac-16” as long as Texas doesn’t change its mind.
OU wants to follow Texas, not A&M.
LikeLike
What does San Marcos have to do with anything?
LikeLike
It is an airport just South of Austin where Scott’s plane was originally filled to go to.
LikeLike
…but he landed in Austin anyway.
LikeLike
@FLP_NDRox:
“So, KU over Utah? Interesting.”
No. Kansas is a contingency plan in case if Oklahoma goes to the SEC. Multiple legit sources both inside and outside of UU have confirmed that Utah is already in the PAC, whether it’s PAC-12 or PAC-16. (Sorry I can’t divulge more.)
The deal is already inked; the announcement is pending. The announcement will come sometime next week. The exact time is up in the air due to the politics of the UT situation. The plane that was scheduled for Kansas is irrelevant to Utah.
I’m not surprised that nobody hear believes me, as people here clearly consider Utah second tier to KU. The PAC obviously doesn’t, as a contract of sorts is already in place. Maybe once the PAC announcement is made Utah will get more respect. Probably not. C’est la vie.
Queue the contrary replies citing BS newspaper and twitter sources. Time will prove them wrong.
LikeLike
Also, and this part is just my opinion, I will be shocked if this PAC-16 thing actually goes down; especially if OU agrees to join TAMU in the SEC.
I can’t imagine that the KU contingency plan will be very attractive to UT in the end. I’m sure UT wants to stay with OU and KU is a poor replacement, considering how deep the ties are between OU and UT.
I can’t begin to imagine UT agreeing to be in a division with AZ, AZS, CU, UU, KU, TT and OSU. If OU opts out, I imagine the entire Big 12/PAC deal will die, if it’s not already dead.
I expect a PAC-12, but that’s just me. Most Utah insiders are still expecting a PAC-16 with UT, TT, OU, OSU, CU, UU, AZ, AZS. I’ll believe it when I see it.
LikeLike
Nothing suspicious about that. It isn’t like they are filling for one airport and changing to one hundreds of miles away.
LikeLike
The Austin-Kansas City flight plan filed by the pilot of N228PK has been cancelled.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N228PK
LikeLike
Likely weather related.
LikeLike
…or it means that Utah is going to the Pac, or it means that Texas is going to the B10, or it means that Mr. Scott was enjoying the hotel’s Spectravision, or…
LikeLike
Joe Paterno’s record against Pitt is 23-7-1. Over no sustained period was Pitt ever considered an “equal” to Penn State. I’ll put my nose down now.
LikeLike
just because the football team often lost to paterno doesn’t mean the overall athletic department wasn’t considered Penn State’s equal.
More importantly, this is an issue about the university as a whole, not merely football records.
LikeLike
Pitt is a Top 20 football program all-time. Behind Penn State, but it’s not as though the Nits have cracked the Top 10 yet either. Closer than Pitt, but Pitt’s brand name would be better than A&M’s if it played in a better league, imho.
LikeLike
All time winning percentage:
24. Texas A&M 59.757%
37. Pittsburgh 57.819%
Winning Percentage since 1975
20: Texas A&M 64.489%
31. Pittsburgh 57.786%
Texas A&M would be better known if it wasn’t in a conference built around the UT/OU rivalry
LikeLike
Pitt has 9 NCs to A&M’s 2 to balance that out.
So I’ll amend it to “a brand name as good as A&M’s” and call it a night. 😉
LikeLike
Eight of Pitt’s 9 “NCs”, as you call them, came before 1938 and are as credible as many of Alabama’s.
Pitt’s reputation as a football program has been the most overblown discussion point during this whole process. They don’t even have an on-campus stadium, and the one they borrow from the steelers often looks like this:
LikeLike
Seconding what James said.
Pitt fills their stadium about as well as the Pirates fill PNC Park.
They’re a bad match for the Big Integer.
LikeLike
“but it’s not as though the Nits have cracked the Top 10 yet either”
Uh, what?? You must be crazy.
Please explain how being 7th all-time in wins and 9th all-time in winning percentage means you haven’t cracked the top 10? Not to mention the 2nd most wins in the last 50 years, behind only Nebraska.
LikeLike
I’m going by the cfbwarehouse All-Time rankings where PSU is 12th right now.
It factors in championships and big bowl points as well as wins and winning %.
If all we did was go by wins and winning % Syracuse is the 6th best bb program of all-time ahead of Indiana and Louisville.
LikeLike
Let me get this logic straight:
Adding two undeserving teams to get ND = acceptable
Adding one undeserving team (Tech) to get TX & ND = unacceptable
LikeLike
Adding Rutgers and Pitt/Syracuse is acceptable.
Adding WV and Louisville is not.
LikeLike
GreatLakeState – “Let me get this logic straight:
Adding two undeserving teams to get ND = acceptable
Adding one undeserving team (Tech) to get TX & ND = unacceptable:
It’s all a matter of perspective.
Let’s say it takes Pitt and SU to get ND.
Pitt is a Top 20 football program of all-time and SU is in the Top 40. Both are AAU members and both rank in the 50s on USNews college rankings.
Texas Tech on the other hand, ranks in the 60s in terms of all-time football programs, ranks behind SU in terms of wins and winning percentage, is not AAU and is a Tier 3 institution.
This notion many fans posting on this blog have that ALL of the invitees have to be HR additions is simply wrong.
An expansion to 16 needs 2 Elite Programs for the national TV contracts and three programs that will add cable subscribers to the BTN.
LikeLike
I am a Big East guy, but I don’t get it either. EVERY school in the list has warts.
Texas Tech’s warts should have been minimal enough to allow a Texas, TTU, T A&M addition to the Big 10.
Add Missouri and call it a day.
Who cares if the academics are not up to snuff? These are not middling schools. Being associated with the Big 10 would BRING THEM up to snuff.
LikeLike
“Who cares if the academics are not up to snuff? These are not middling schools. Being associated with the Big 10 would BRING THEM up to snuff.”
Disagree. WVU being associated with ND, G’Town, BC, SU, Pitt, Rutgers, UConn, Nova etc. hasn’t elevated its academic standing. And there’s nothing wrong with that in my eyes. It’s there to serve the populace of West Virginia, not the athletic conference it resides in.
But if it wanted to change, it still comes down to mission and how much the state (if it’s public) and the institution (if it’s private) is willing to make the cultural changes to get it upgraded academically.
LikeLike
That’s a great way to put it. While I’d love to see WVU move out of Tier 3—only partially because it would increase the value of my diploma—it might not be in the best interest of the people of West Virginia to do so. (Raising academic standards takes a lot of money, something not generally found in WV.)
LikeLike
Frank;
Your points about SEC and A&M all make sense but don’t take one factor into account-recruiting. Texas was wide open in the failing years of the SWC. After the formation of the B12, Texas, OU and A&M get who they want. Then the rest of the B12 pretty much gets who they want. There’s still a lot of talent, but the top prospects stay close. If the Aggies go to SEC, you’ve got two conferences, P10 and SEC poaching Texas. In the B12, Texas, OU and A&M were at the top of the league, except for Nebraska who never recruited Texas as heavily as the rest of the league. In the P16, only the Arizona schools are likely to make much of an investment in Texas. In the SEC, Arkansas will come back, LSU will get more players and we’ll have to compete with TN, Auburn, Alabama and UGA.
I think its likely to hurt UT, OU and A&M. I don’t think its any coincidence that OU and UT were both down in the early 90s.
Just as an anecdotal story, my old HS has had 2 great teams. From the one in the 80s, there were 3 top flite players-2 players went to Miami FL and 1 went to UNL. Every longtime UNL fan would recognize him. From the B12 era, the top player went to UT and was in the Rose Bowl vs. USC.
LikeLike
Which is why UT wants TAMU to come with it to the Pac. To guarantee the continued success and lack of outside “poaching” of Texas talent.
Not to say they’ll lose the “shirts off their backs” if TAMU joins the SEC, but I do think the SEC will have much better recruiting than if not.
LikeLike
Under Callahan at Nebraska, the recruiting in Texas came to a trickle and stopped. The new guy at Nebraska is getting some good talent this year from Texas.
LSU gets recruits from Texas, and the last couple of years has been cherry-picking them.
The opening of the Texas recruiting grounds will not hurt Texas as they are getting top talent right now. Mack Brown has a machine that is running very well (it really hurts me to type that). Oklahoma may become one to cherry-pick Texas talent as they become focused on the new western markets open to them now. Texas Tech has more chance of getting hurt by getting kids only west of DFW and the Brazos River (though Tuberville seems to be going in a positive direction right now). Oklahoma State is going to be in for a world of hurt when it comes to recruiting Texas talent.
LikeLike
“I think its likely to hurt UT, OU and A&M. I don’t think its any coincidence that OU and UT were both down in the early 90s.”
A&M’s worst record in the 1990s= 6-6 (1996)
A&M’s 2nd worst record= 8-4 (1999)
Every other year in the 1990’s A&M had at least 9 wins.
UT may be frightened about conditions in the early 90s, but A&M shouldn’t be.
LikeLike
Jackie “probation” Sherrill got the Aggies winning and arranged for them to spend a good part of the early 90s on probation before he resigned. Never found a school he couldn’t win at. Never found a school he couldn’t get on probation.
When not on probation how many bowl games did the Aggies win during the closing years of the SWC? I don’t recall very many. Texas wasn’t winning bowl games either because SWC wasn’t competitive nationally.
LikeLike
Another “bidder” for Texas
Source: Chances of Big 12’s survival looks ‘significantly greater’
BY MIKE DeARMOND
The Kansas City Star
It looks as if Big 12 banners will no longer fly at the Sprint Center.
COLUMBIA | A source close to Big 12 Conference realignment negotiations has told The Star that chances for the league to stay together are “significantly greater than 24 hours ago.”
The same source said that a new television contract being touted by Commissioner Dan Beebe could produce “significantly more” than $17 million for each of the remaining 10 Big 12 schools. Perhaps upwards of $20 million per school.
And, that a departure penalty of around $20 million withheld from Colorado and Nebraska would mean $2 each to the remaining Big 12 members.
That, of course, is dependent on there being a Big 12 Conference beyond the 2010-2011 academic year. Last week Colorado agreed to leave for the Pac 10 Conference and Nebraska agreed to join the Big Ten Conference. It was anticipated that Pac 10 Commissioner Larry Scott, over the weekend, had made offers to Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
But on Sunday morning, word began to filter in to media outlets all over the Big 12 – from the Texas Rivals.com site Orangebloods to The Star, that Beebe’s efforts to halt mass exodus from the Big 12 might be gaining at least a tenuous foothold.
A source close to the realignment negotiations suggested that Texas – the key to league survival in its present form – would likely gain concessions for “getting to play the hero.”
It was concessions to Texas – for example in the form of uneven revenue distribution – on which an unstable foundation was laid when the Southwest Conference and the Big Eight Conference merged.
“There is a price,” the source said. “But the price is worth it, or its a price we have to pay.”
Sunday was a day of news confirmed and news denied in the case of Texas A&M.
Chad Moller, media relations director for Missouri, confirmed a Big 12 official had informed Missouri, late Sunday afternoon, that Texas A&M had turned down an offer to join the Pac 10.
At about the same time, the Rivals.com site Aggieyell.com – devoted to Texas A&M athletics – reported the Aggies had turned down the Pac 10 and that they “will be the newest member of the Southeastern Conference.”
Barely had those statements been made than officials at Texas A&M denied the Aggies’ had commimtted to the SEC or spurned the Pac 10.
According to A&M spokesman Jason Cook told Orangebloods.com: “Texas A&M continues to evaluate its options. At this point, all options continue to be on the table.”
That, at least for one more day, seemed to leave open the option of Big 12 survival.
Still out there is the obvious specter of dissolution. If the Pac 10 can convince even three more of the Big 12 South schools to leave, then the Big 12‘s days are numbered.
As for Missouri, a special meeting of the Board of Curators set for 8 o’clock on Sunday night is expected to serve as nothing more than an opportunity for athletic director Mike Alden to brief the curators, systems president Gary Forsee and MU Chancellor Brady Deaton of the options available to Mizzou.
In fact, no officials are anticipated to be in actual attendance at the meeting at University Hall. Each will likely be hooked into a teleconference link.
Alden declined an interview with The Star on Sunday afternoon and once again official comments from MU officials have dwindled to no definitive comments at all.
Speculation continues to list Missouri’s possible options – beyond staying in the Big 12 – as eventual inclusion in the Big Ten if it grows to 14 or 16, or possibly becoming of interest to the SEC. The Big East – if it loses members to other leagues – might welcome in Missouri as well as Kansas, according to several speculative reports. And, the Mountain West Conference, looking to move forward to gaining a BCS berth, has been reported to be looking into taking Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State.
Moller said he could neither confirm nor deny anything about realignment involving Missouri outside the Big 12.
http://www.kansascity.com/2010/06/13/2014828/source-chances-of-big-12s-survival.html
LikeLike
I’d like to see the math behind a 10 member Big 12 making as much as the current Big Ten network makes, especially if Texas is still looking to have its own network.
I can’t believe that the league would somehow have become strong enough to match the Big Ten’s revenue while losing 2 schools.
LikeLike
If I were Texas, I’d stay at ten teams. Why feed two more mouths? You won’t find two that will add much value.
Instead of a CCG I would schedule the annual OU game the first week of December every year.
I bet this format could command as much as a CCG because you would likely have two highly ranked teams (easy conference, don’t schedule too many tough OOCs) playing for a BCS bowl every year.
It might work short-term, and then BevoTV would be up & running
LikeLike
The problem I see with this working out is that although Texas could say “We won’t do the PAC Ten. If you don’t like this go elsewhere.” and in effect buy programming content as long as the paid the ISUs, Baylors, Techs, Missouris, more than they might make in the BE or MWC, how do they satisfy OU and A&M? They need to get a cut which is at least in the same ball park as what they might get if they moved.
It makes me think of the Harlem Globetrotters and a bunch of Washington Generals
LikeLike
Ross, I’m with you. How could a tv network think that the Big 12-lite has any stability whatsoever. After these latest series of event, the perceived animosity (even if it isn’t 100% accurate) is now at the forefront. The blood is now in the water and the sharks are circling. If the ACC only got somewhere around $12m-$13m (and that was with Fox trying competing with ABC/ESPN and jacking up the price), how can a 10 team conference with blood in the water going to rival the SEC’s contract. Doesn’t make sense to me.
LikeLike
If necessary, B12 will add BYU and one of: Memphis, New Mexico, Tulane, Colorado State (probably not a Texas school — what’s the point). Each of those schools will eat any deal just to get in a BCS conference.
LikeLike
I actually hope this is true, but one thing I’ve learned throughout this ordeal is: Never believe anything that comes out of Kansas City. Seems like all the bogus rumors have come from there.
LikeLike
This will be Texas’ I’ve looked into the Abyss and the Abyss looked into me, moment. Texas confirming B12 continuation wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
LikeLike
It looks like according to the Aggies Rivals site, that they did turn down the Pac 10.
http://tamu.rivals.com/
LikeLike
Interesting. If this is true, then it looks like we get another week of wondering what will happen.
LikeLike
That’s one apparently out. Now let’s see what happens with Oklahoma. If they go SEC, I think Texas is back in play.
LikeLike
I’m getting the impression from what I’m seeing in the media that journalists/outlets with a vested stake in helping UT are the only ones insinuating that A&M has *not* yet turned down the Pac-10 invite, which obviously has to make the deal less attractive for Texas and the conference. If this is a fact, then it’s a signal to the Big Ten that they can still offer the most attractive money deal to UT.
LikeLike
Chip Brown works for the Rivals site catering to the Horn fans. He was the one who broke the story and has had to eat crow since then.
Texas chooses its path on Tuesday. Texas A&M chooses its path either on Thursday or Friday.
LikeLike
The source was Chip Brown at Orangebloods.com, and he has since recanted his story. A&M still has two options on the table to evaluate.
LikeLike
As for the conspiracy theory, you could argue SEC, P10, B10 and ACC are working together to create 4 superconferences with complicity by UT and A&M. SEC supposedly is not raiding ACC. I posted earlier that I didn’t think the superconferences happen because the only way it worked financially was UT to Pac 10 and A&M to SEC. SEC can’t get to 16 without solid foothold in Texas and P10 can’t get to 16 without solid foothold in Texas.
LikeLike
I don’t believe such a grand plan is at work here. these conferences are all in competition. Squeezing out the weaker links is a natural part of this competition. The death of a conference below the big three is going to benefit the big three in any case. That said look at where the four fits line up. Cultural fit, geographic fit, athletic fit and monetary fit add up.
LikeLike
I also agree that any and all conspiracy theories are garbage. Look at the Big 12 – you can’t get 12 institutions to cooperate, and you think over 60 want to play their respective roles in cooperatively creating a few mega conferences? No way.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean that mega conferences won’t come to fruition at some point (maybe even soon), but it will be more the result of a cold war/arms race mentality than one of collaboration.
LikeLike
Of course, I agree with you. Its just amazing what conspiracies everyone thinks UT is up to. A&M and the SEC are standing up to B10/P10/UT world dominance!
The simplest explanation is often the best. UT thinks B12 is in its best interest. Likes B10 but can’t do it politically and worries about being on an island w/o rivals. P10+6 gives it closing thing to B12 but with competitive income.
Texas/OU/A&M all have difficult decisions. P10 and B12 TV money are very uncertain. Non-financial impact of SEC membership is very uncertain.
LikeLike
I think we may have lost a lot of the Texas people over the last few days, but I have a question for them. Why would A&M not like the Pac plan but put up with the exhumed corpse of the Big 12 plan? Are the Aggies supposed to be more excited about playing ISU, KU, KSU, Baylor and Missouri compared to ASU, Arizona, and Colorado with 1 game a year on the west coast? Do Aggies disintegrate if they touch Californian soil?
I guess I could see the line of reasoning leading to going to the SEC but I don’t see much distinction between the Big 12 and Pac plans.
LikeLike
Aggies will not stay in the Big Twelve, probably at all, but for sure not if Texas brings up the specter of their Lone Star Network. Ditto for OU. Write it down, Big 12 is dead. And, consider the source of the prolong the Big 12, ultimately, is it not Chip Brown?
LikeLike
Surely you’re not besmirching the quality of Chip Brown’s tweets? After all, he was right about Missouri going to the Big Ten… er, Nebraska not having a Big Ten invite… er, Texas A&M going to the Pac-10…
Seriously, I just want Texas to be in or out so I can stop getting him on my feed.
LikeLike
M, I’m with you. The only real difference between a Pac 16 schedule and a Big 12-lite schedule is that in the Pac 16 they may would have to play a couple of games (probably 2 max) on the west coast a year. I think that they whole “we wouldn’t be looking to the SEC if the Big 12-lite was still an option” was just spin to deflect some pressure off of themselves. I think if they have indeed said no to the Pac 16, then they will be announcing for the SEC this week. JMHO
LikeLike
M, I’m only speculating obviously, but I bet Pac-10 vs. SEC *or* Big 12 for A&M is fear of the unknown vs. the comfort of familiar surroundings.
Culturally, the Big 12 and SEC suit A&M very well – fans and administrators alike. They know the SEC is a cash cow and even though B12 may not yield a fortune, it lets them be a relatively big fish (2nd only to UT and OU, right?) – Pac-10 opens a whole other can of worms – nothing is set in stone when it comes to scheduling or a tv deal (I assume). My hunch is that A&M decision makers are conservative old men who don’t like taking risks…which makes the SEC or the possible continuation of the Big 12 the most attractive prospects.
LikeLike
M right now in Aggie land its running probably 12 – 1 to head for the SEC. Lots of folks excited and especially with being able to throw a grenade Austin’s way out the door (see Nebraska). Beebe saying he can get a deal like SEC is ludicrious especially given with additions to SEC, the number should go up per school.
The only way Aggies stick around is if their is some SERIOUS contractual/pre-nup for Texas + no BevoTV and equal pay for everyone. Conference is kinda of tired of the Austin wandering eye and for the Aggies and B12N4 to stick around they will need some significant assurances ie cash and huge break-up fees to want to stick around.
I posted the other day. 1985, 1989, 1994, and now in 2010 Texas has had “urges” to leave its brethern and go west. I think Aggie land is more then happy to let them go this time.
LikeLike
Aggie fans think like above and have a chip on their shoulder about Texas, but I think Byrne and Loftin will make rational decisions. If they choose SEC it will be because of travel and money issues. I really don’t see them leaving B12 w/o everyone else going.
If they do try to leave the B12 on their own, there might be some political pressure. I don’t forsee anyone putting political pressure to go to P10 over SEC.
LikeLike
On their own? CU and NU have left already. The only “pressure” is coming from Deloss Dodds via his mouthpiece.
The B12-2 is dead and it was shot by Texas.
LikeLike
So, does the following look like what we have witnessed over the past few weeks / months:
1) Texas in talks with the Big10 (and others) about conference expansion.
2)The Pac10 comes up with a way for Texas to keep its’ rivalries and maintain an almost automatic BCS bid with the Pac8-Swac8. They offer it as quickly as possible – it’s their best option. This forces the Big10’s hand.
3) The Pac10 offers and receives Colorado. The Big10 encourages Nebraska to apply and accepts the application. No reason to wait.
4) Lots of negotiations on all sides very quickly: options, back-room trading, promising away your first-born, yadda, yadda, yadda.
5) A&M completely balks at the Pac8-Swac8 and makes a strong move toward the SEC.
6) Desperate to keep A&M out of the SEC, Texas rejuvinates the Big12’s future. The Pac8-Swac8 idea (and all others) in trouble.
7) A&M now faces the prospect of attempting to join the SEC in the face of the other Texas schools “struggling” to stay together. Politics may come into play to force the hand.
8) The Pac10 tries to firm up as many commitments as possible or forever lose out.
9) The Big10, along with the SEC, still with the biggest hands to play, sit on the side and wait, with a number of situations that can turn into positives for them. (Why is it that I think these two schools look at each other as foes like in the scene from “Patton,” where Gen. Patton and the Russian general cross arms and drink champaign while smiling and looking daggers at each other?)
Is that it or did I miss something?
LikeLike
What about ND?
LikeLike
While there has been rumor and revelation about Notre Dame, and I am sure they are in contact with all of the above in some way, shape or form, they haven’t had to directly play yet. They will.
LikeLike
When we break the Big East the Irish will be wearing a Big Ten banner jumping out of a cake.
LikeLike
Haven’t you heard? They’re irrelevant. (insert snarky emoticon here)
LikeLike
Yes, they are.
😛
LikeLike
;D
LikeLike
They just dont know it yet. nether does NBC.
LikeLike
Ooops. These two conferences in #9, not schools.
LikeLike
Texas: The elephant sits where it wants.
LikeLike
Well, on A&M’s board, they are celebrating their enterence to the SEC. That part could be over.
LikeLike
Links?
I say this not because I doubt you, but merely as a Pitt fan who remembers some of his friends “celebrating our invitation to the Big Ten” back in February.
LikeLike
I don’t think you’re going to see any annoucement for several days. First, the A&M regents are not yet scheduled to meet, and any meeting agenda must be posted 72 hours before the meeting. Second, there will be a hearing in Austin on Wednesday before a committee of the Legislature, and I don’t think A&M wants to announce anything prior to that. Finally, I think A&M and the SEC have an understanding, and that there really isn’t any time pressure on their announcement if OU is out of play.
Now, if Texas wants to try to use a Big XII survival plan with a poison pill (the Longhorn network) as part of a PR offensive against A&M, I think A&M will just play it cool and tell eveyrone what they’ve been saying–they are evaluating all options. Make no mistake–the Horns are very conscious of the fact that they are losing the PR battle, and it could get a lot worse if they don’t put up some kind of smokescreen to try to redirect the blame to A&M.
LikeLike
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/06/13/expansion.sunday/index.html
Andy Staples talks about the Texas politicians getting involved. They have a hearing Wednesday. Since most of the various trustee/regent meetings are Tuesday, I don’t really know what he plans to accomplish.
LikeLike
Who wants K-State?
LikeLike
wow that video was disturbing..
they stole the power towel from the steelers terrible towel
they stole the welcome to the jungle from the bengals
The NFL AFC North attorneys are comming
😉
LikeLike
I will never forget my power towel ever again.
LikeLike
Can anyone with a good base of non-BCS/football conference knowledge comment or speculate on a suitable home for Notre Dame’s non-revenue sports? Does one exist? ACC?
I completely and totally agree with Frank that this is critical for ND’s overall athletic stability, but I don’t see the Big Ten actually taking a school it doesn’t want (i.e. Rutgers) solely to force ND’s hand – that’s the bad start of a relationship and one that would always be prone to collapse.
I also don’t see Notre Dame joining the Big Ten if it’s obvious to everyone watching that Delany made a move solely to trap the Domers; they don’t want to be portrayed as the ones who got jobbed. On the other hand, they’d probably be inclined to join if it looks like a set of random but connected events transpired that resulted in B10 membership looking appealing rather than forced upon them.
If I were Swarbrick/ND, I would put the challenge on the alumni who so obviously cherish football independence. Joining the Big Ten is worth X million dollars…can the boosters raise this much annually? If not, off to Big Ten country we go…
LikeLike
Dude, be for real. if ND does not want to join the Big Ten because they want to be independent why would any other conference make sense. Only a very week conference would make sense. Like the Big East. They allow ND to two time them and learned to like it. The most logical place for ND to end up IS the Big ten. They can try the big 12 or what’s left of them? The SEC, too academically inferior and too southern. The Pac ten, too far to travel and they are all filled up. The ACC would want full membership and no duel TV networks most likely.
LikeLike
Stv, on paper it’s already been established in about 37 different ways that joining the Big Ten makes very logical sense for Notre Dame, yet they relent…it’s clear their pride and independence are hallmark to them, and they will cut off their nose to spite their face. I genuinely believe that if the Big Ten makes very deliberate moves to force ND to join the league, the Domers would seriously consider a move to the ACC – which is filled with schools that share ND’s private/highly selective/undergrad emphasis (Duke, Wake, BC, Miami), and would probably be willing to make concessions for them, i.e. a bigger cut of the tv contract.
LikeLike
Makeing consessions to the domers will only signify that the ACC believes they are a week confrence. I just poit out that any excuse ND makes for not joining the BT can be applied to other confrences. Consistance and sense would make sense.
LikeLike
There is no place. Everything I previously read (prior to Frank’s piece) was that the Catholic schools were ND’s biggest supporters in BE. Yet I can’t imagine them wanting ND’s football revenues used to swamp their non-rev sports, just as Division III kicked out Division I schools like Dayton playing non-scholarship football. They didn’t want Div I (basketball in Dayton’s case) revenues funding facilities that they couldn’t match.
Missouri Valley is strong, but I don’t see them wanting ND either.
Atlantic 10 really doesn’t fit ND. They tend to have commuter schools and small schools or schools that will end up with Big East bb schools.
No other non-football league is good enough in basketball.
LikeLike
I think the conferences will live to regret 16. It’s pure megalomania — a commodity in ample supply at CAA.
If the PAC-10 gets the B12S …..
As I understand it, the schools entered into this understanding there will be two divisions, so that no one has to haul themselves up to Pullman every other day. For football, what do you have? If they schedule only 8 games, then what? 7 in division with one dedicated rival or 7 with a rotation? So Arizona only sees USC once every eight years? If you go to 9 conf games, then you go through the opposite division once every 4 years?
It won’t take more than a couple of years (if that) for Ariz and ASU to realize they’ve been kicked out of the PAC and into a new SWC. How’s the marriage going to be then?
This won’t be a true conference — might as well have made some type of media alliance or joint cable network. The schools of Texas could be right back where they started: in a jerry-rigged conference with a lot of squabbling. They’ll be rid of Baylor, though so I guess that’s something.
I think the same thing could happen to the B10. As soon as I seen a “pod” post, I skip it. But from the number, it is clear that patching together a 16-team conference and maintaining rivalries and cohesiveness will be a tall order. The BEast can barely do it as a 16-team Bball conference (and that’s with more than twice the inventory of games).
The only saving grace would be if the teams drop one of the rent-a-patsy games and go to a 9-game conference schedule. But, the voraciousness of the athletic department’s financial needs makes me think that unlikely.
That said, if the B10 is determined to go to 16 and learn the hard way and given what FTT said about the BEast and ND, add the three AAU members: Pitt, Rutgers, Syracuse. Lock down the mid Atlantic completely, get a combination of demographics, strong brands, some good Bball (not Rutgers), and grab ND. ND’s ego needs to be stroked — hence its reticence to join as part of a group. But, joining with the academic cream of the BEast crop helps satisfy that problem.
I mentioned this on the last entry.
Hate the idea — these 16-team conferences are going to have a lot of problems. The WAC was a warning — it is foolish to be so arrogant as to think that their problems don’t apply b/c they are the WAC. 16 is just too much.
99% of the world just has to learn the hard way, even brilliant B10 presidents.
LikeLike
I’ve been trying to figure out why U of A and ASU would go along with this P16 plan. I suppose the PAC10 office could have incriminating photos of one of the Arizona university presidents, but two?
LikeLike
I think ASU/UofA saw they had no choice in the matter. What were their alternatives? Vote it down and possibly cost every school in the Pac-10 a few million?
Agree that the 16-school model remains unproven and could be a recipe for disaster. Seems to me the original talk of a Big 12/Pac-10 cooperative tv deal could still be lucrative and still scalable from an organizational standpoint – let the two conferences co-exist, they negotiate their tv deals jointly for a bigger payday, and maybe agree that each school must schedule at least one opponent from the other league…
LikeLike
Colorado goes to PAC, Utah is added. B12 replaces Colorado with Memphis.
Now you have two 12-team conferences with great football and Bball teams — a lot of programming and good games.
I don’t know what’s up with Arizona and ASU — they can veto. Stanford can’t be too thrilled. Maybe they are swooning over some ridiculous dollar figure dreamed up at CAA. Perhaps Larry Scott did a real sell job, grabbed the blank check and is running with it. Maybe they have had second thoughts but are too embarrassed to pause things (or tried to derail things, but were shouted down).
They will find out quickly putting together a new cable channel is tough. And, I gotta believe the schedule ramifications are going to start sinking in.
LikeLike
I have to imagine FOX would be doing most of the leg work and they’ve already worked out the kinks in the process when they developed the Big Ten Network. There will be local nuances, of course,but they have the how-to guide in hand.
LikeLike
Remember, Stoops is at Arizona. Arizona schools would like to recruit Texas more. And money talks.
Maybe the big winner in conference realignment sweepstakes is San Diego State. A lot of schools will want to play them 1 and 1 out of conference.
Agree that 16 is difficult. B10 is trying to come up with cohesive group. P10 is trying to build 2 cohesive groups. I actually think P10 has better model, because 16 is really two conferences tied by TV contract and championship game. Benson (WAC commissioner) commented that it was hard to get 10-12 schools to agree, let alone 16. If you have two cohesive divisions of 8, its easier than putting together 1 of 16. Slive, Beebe and ACC commissioner all think 12 is best. I’m inclined to agree.
As for brilliant Presidents, most American business succeeds in spite of its CEOs, not because of them. Egos get in the way.
LikeLike
Do you guys really think Paul Tagliabue signed up to work with the Big East to preside over its destruction?
LikeLike
He is a Georgetown alum that is doing this for free. Can make chicken salad out of – you know
LikeLike
He is on the Georgetown board. Whatever happens you can bet the interests of the BB side of the BE (and so Georgetown) will be optimized. Don’t be misled by the NFL history into thinking he is concerned primarily about BE football.
LikeLike
Well, looks like the FTT board obsession with Texas is coming to an end, and we are going to get down to the business that this has always been about if Delaney wants end, sticking an A-bomb in the midst of the Big East.
I expect the final talley will be Rutgers, Syracuse, Maryland (who will see the ACC get raided) and ND
LikeLike
I bet they go Rutger and maryland to get NY/NJ ,Baltimore, and DC. Or Rutgers Syracuse would be a hedge to nail down NY state. ND should move ahead of this and stop the BullS&*t already.
LikeLike
I want to say this in the most fair and objective way possible. ND, I hear you. It is your ‘identity’ to be small, private, Catholic and independent. The Big Ten is (save NU) large, public, secular and communal. What defines you and makes you exceptional is feared would be lost with an affiliation with us (although Holtz and Davie seem to have come around). Fine. I’d like to respect that.
It’s not the Big Ten’s job, and doesn’t serve us well, to coerce, force, beg or compel ND or anyone else to join us. We are the premiere composite research, academic and athletic grouping of American Universities. The most we should be doing is letting it be known that despite our not fitting you (and you not fitting us), we believe the times have changed, and under the new landscape, we’d both be better off together. We shouldn’t be begging or forcing you or anyone else, because, by the way we’re already the richest, smartest and most successful suitor on the block, and we’ll do fine without you (and likewise, you’ve historically been “The University of Football in America”, and you’ve done well without us, although per Andrew McKenna in 1999, “Notre Dame over the years has enjoyed close associations with a number of Big Ten and CIC institutions both in athletic and in academic pursuits”). Please don’t think we’re destabilizing other conferences just to get you; if we were gonna take bad apples, we’d have accepted a Tech problem for an even bigger fish. If and when we invite MD, GT, Rutgers or whomever, it’s because we want them, not because it’s a ploy to force you to join unwillingly. If the dominos fall against your favor, it’s not a plot. If, in the future, we don’t reflexly support your request for exceptionalism (e.g. automatic BCS births), it’s not revenge; it’s acting in our own self-interest, much as you’re doing.
Any good relationship starts with respect. I appreciate the clarity expressed here by the ND alumni about their identity; personally, I respect that and am not a ND hater, although objectively I do believe you’re acting entitled and against your self-interest. It’s just some of our passion is in seeing the clarity of how good we’d be together, even though you don’t want to admit the same. I do get concerned, insulted and turned off when I hear you saying how horrible an affiliation with us would be (and not just because of your goal for independence).
I wish we’d stop with the pursuit of ND, and let ND approach us if and when ready, much like Tom Osborne said Nebraska did; we’ll then decide if our interest is still there. Let’s get back to work without disparaging these guys. ND will find its way, one way or another. We have too much to do on our own.
And, by the way, thanks for being true to yourselves, because the last thing any of us wants is for you to join unwillingly, without the class and humility that a great institutional like UNL showed on Friday. If we ever affiliate, my arms will be open and welcoming. Please don’t ever join unless you can do the same.
With respect.
LikeLike
Well put Jeff.
LikeLike
Completely agree, but would like to add that Rudy was a horrible movie.
LikeLike
Intergity in college sports? are you kidding?
BTW – there is no santa
LikeLike
that’s so not true. Santan brought be this for Christmas when I was a kid:
LikeLike
DRD,
I know who satan is….
I know who santa is….
I do not know this Santan of whom you speak?
can you enlighten me????
Is SanTan a minor deity that brings plastic toys to children with good suntans?
LikeLike
he may be the Santa for Satan worshipers.
He brought cool toys though.
LikeLike
Very well put Jeff. I wish I could express myself as well as you. And yet I try…
I would like to point out we are in a rapidly changing world. Higher learning is no longer confined to small audiences behind ivy-covered walls. In my mind, the CIC, with the largest shared academic library in the country, is just one example of the direction universities in this country must follow to remain competitive. I am hoping this Big Ten expansion, in part fueled by the athletic partnerships of the Big Ten Network, can lead to even more initiatives for academic cooperation and excellence.
I direct you to the post I made as the very last comment on Frank’s previous blog entry for my further thoughts…
https://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2010/06/11/big-red-in-the-big-ten/#comment-76312
LikeLike
Well done. You should post that on the new thread. Glad to see we share the vision of the university’s athletics as a vehicle for academic/research instead of the other way around. I know the Big Ten does as well.
LikeLike
Thanks Jeff. If I had to type all that again, no way. So here goes cut and paste…
When expansion talk started I started thinking of options just like any fan. I thought about which schools would look great on the football schedule. Thanks to Frank’s urging to “Think like a University president”, I have taken a much different view. Some of my changed attitude is certainly reinforced by the Wisconsin state motto, “Forward”. The long-term view of the role of universities has shaped my view more and more as these discussions proceed. Where would you like to see our universities go in the next 50-100 years?
This country has largely thrived because of the tremendous resources we have but that advantage is slipping as we look to a challenging future. Another great strength of this country comes from the higher education systems we have in place. Collectively the education, research, and innovation provided by our great universities have played a tremendous role in making this country strong. Take a look at the Academic Rankings of World Universities. Seventeen of the the top twenty institutions in the world are in the US. Thirty-six of the top 50 are from the US.
During the past generation our graduate schools have been flooded by international students. With lessons learned these students have gone home and built their own higher education programs. Can we maintain our position in a global economy?
I wonder if we can. I recently stumbled on another university ranking solely based on web traffic algorithms.
http://www.4icu.org/top200/
I have no way of judging the validity of this analysis. But it must be acknowledged the exchange and advancement of knowledge in a web-connected world will be a tremendously important factor for our future. By these rankings the US still is strong. Nine US institutions are in the top twenty. Eighteen US institutions appear in the top 50. But look at the makeup of the rest of that list. China has 5 in the top 20 on this listing. China doesn’t have a single institution in the top 200 on the ARWU listings. And that may be true for a long time to come. China is not exactly known for sharing its knowledge with the world. They may gladly keep it to themselves while we continue to be complacent.
The addition of Nebraska to the Big Ten has been met by nearly universal acceptance in these parts. The few naysayers I have heard say they are a bad fit usually say “Nebraska is not Midwest. Nebraska is the Plains!” These same people may still think Penn St. is a poor fit because they are “too Eastern”. Say what??? It is a pretty weak argument if you have to pull out a new map for your Lincoln road trip when such an alliance may strengthen all universities involved.
This same provincialism enters into so many of these arguments. Knute Rockne did try to get Notre Dame into the Big Ten, and yes I know they were rebuffed, and yes, anti-Catholic prejudices were probably a factor. Notre Dame has had success for generations and developed traditions and takes pride in its independence. I understand all of those arguments. But what if the university leadership of both Notre Dame and the Big Ten determine it is in the best interests of all to unite for the future. Look Forward. Not back. I would certainly hope resentments and differences that arose from a very different time could be set aside. The people who set Notre Dame and the Big Ten on separate paths have been dead for a long time!
And please, please, please… do not even start to tell me some universities are a poor fit largely based on dividing lines established 150 years ago. Forward! Look forward. There is much more than football at stake.
Yes. I am hopelessly naive. I can’t help it. 🙂
LikeLike
loki,
according to the list rice is # 123
faithful,
I am most concerned long term if the US drops in educational rankings MUCH more than I worry / care if football fortunes rise or fall. In the end sports are entertainment, while the mind is what drives great civilizations forward.
LikeLike
Agreed.
LikeLike
Well said.
The Big Ten should move on, period. There are other institutions that would want to align with the Big Ten that would be beneficial to all parties.
Based on the Big Ten report by the consultant firm in Chicago, the Big Ten could add 5 schools and still make money. Lets get the best schools that fit academically/financially for the long term and move on.
Let ND be ND and if they come back at a later date then evaluate it to see if it is in our best interest.
LikeLike
BigTenJeff… very well stated…
Adding an analogy…
The BigTen is a bunch of Jaguar XJ-12’s–big, powerful, exotic. Notre Dame is a Porsche –small, powerful, exotic. Can you keep them in the same garage, sure, you could… but, it just doesn’t seem right, look right, or most importantly, feel right…
LikeLike
Exactly.
The worst thing we could do is “coerce” ND into joining. Then we’d have one member of the conference that resents everyone else.
I’ve never wanted Notre Dame in the Big Ten for the same reason the posters on this board say–they aren’t an institutional “fit.” I get the sense this offends some of them when we say it but not when they say it, but maybe I’m wrong. In any case, it’s just more evidence that they’re not a fit.
I think some of the problem is a belief that the ND administration would like the join the Big Ten but can’t because of the alumni backlash. In that case, the Big Ten and ND are conspiring to do something that would force the alumni to believe that the move is necessary. I think some Big Ten posters believe it and some ND posters fear it is true. But I don’t think there is any way this is happening. If the ND administration secretly wanted to join the B10 (and I don’t have any reason to think they do), I believe that they are honorable enough not to try something like that. On top of that, I believe the Big Ten wouldn’t want them if they were willing to collude like that.
I think the Big Ten would like ND, even if I don’t. But I’ve never believed that the B10 would compromise their principles to make it happen.
LikeLike
“The Big Ten is (save NU) large, public, secular and communal.”
Huh?
LikeLike
““The Big Ten is (save NU) large, public, secular and communal.”
Huh?”
NU=Northwestern of course. At least on this blog with its 50% Northwestern contingent you’re going to have get used to that.
LikeLike
Why can’t Northwestern be “NW”? Makes more sense.
LikeLike
Amen
LikeLike
adding
LikeLike
Redhawk or any other OU fans on here, what are the OU fans saying about the appearance that OU has decided to follow UT to the Pac 10? Do most of the fans support this move, or would they prefer go to the SEC?
It just seems to me that, even if they decide to go to the Pac 10, OU is in a perfect position to make UT sweat and gain some negotiating leverage when that happens. I figured that OU would at least make a public appearance that they weren’t tied to UT’s hip. What do the OU fans think about it?
LikeLike
OU fans don’t seem happy with the move to the Pac-10 on it’s own merits. However, being looked at as Texas’s bitch, really is not going over well at all and is rubbing many the wrong way.
We have a long history with Kansas and Missouri and have attachment to them.
Of the OU fans, their it seems no one likes any of the choices right now for OU and seems to be a discussion of trying to figure out the less of 3 bad choices. All 3 have pluses and minuses, and big ones at that so it depends on which issue is valued.
Personally, I say to hell with UofTexas, grow a pair, and go join A&M in the SEC. We aren’t Arkansas. We can play with Bama and LSU
LikeLike
Redhawk, I would feel the same way as you. OU is a storied program with a huge history and tradition. Plus, you’ve only been in a conference with UT since the inception of the Big 12. OU was an elite football school a long time before that. Like I said, I’m suprised that the powers that be at OU aren’t causing UT to twist in the wind a little bit even if they do plan to follow UT to the Pac 10.
LikeLike
if OU doesn’t play along..Uof Texas can say “to heck with this” and go to the Big 10. (a choice for UT that has it’s pluses and minuses as well)
That effectively kills one of the 2 options for OU (keeping the Big 12 alive) and probably kills or hurts the “Join the Pac-10” option.
LikeLike
I just don’t see this as a realistic option for OU. Texas’ threat to end the RRS is not something OU can risk. The only way OU gets to the SEC is with Texas.
LikeLike
First of all, huge fingers crossed that P16 falls apart and end up merely P12.
Having grown up in NYC and now living in B12 country for many years, the idea of any B12 school to Big East makes no sense to me. I can’t predict the future, but that is a pure speculation story that I can’t see ever coming to fruition. And Franks Blog today actually lends more to my feeling here, as the BE BB and Football seem likely to split and the Football side is not going to be in position to add teams. They will be orphaned.
Can’t find a link, but clearly remember something About SEC fondness of WV. Them and A&M to SEC and Rutgers to B10 brings the BE breakup to reality and B10 isn’t forced to take someone it doesn’t want
So finally, ND, what happens. Not saying it will, but thinking ND and Texas like to think of themselves as a class of 2, in the matter of football royalty. Apparently have talked, like playing by their own rules, see themselves as bigger than the sum of any group, you get the point. Most B12 schools are desperate for a BCS conference under any rules, and some just can’t quit Texas…. So, ND to Big 12 with Special rules as needed. Big TV deal as Beebe is promising. Done!
LikeLike
The only times Notre Dame has a real chance to beat USC is when USC is on probation. Better make the most of it. Whose your coach this year?
LikeLike
Spoken like someone whose sense of history only goes as far as his nose. The ND-USC rivalry goes in cycles. Before this current USC streak, ND had an 11-game streak.
LikeLike
From the 1983 meeting, until the 2002 meeting, USC only beat ND three times in the 19 meetings.
ND has not won since the Cheat Carroll Era really got rolling at USC.
I’d put my money on ND taking command of the series soon, as long as it’s Brian Kelly vs. Lane Kiffin.
LikeLike
The flight plan for corporate jet with tail number N228PK from Austin to Kansas City on Sunday night has been cancelled.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N228PK
The jet is owned by former Oregon AD Pat Kilkenny and is being used by Pac-10 officials (Larry Scott and Kevin Weiberg) for their trip to visit the Big 12 schools.
LikeLike
Could this be due to weather? There is a fairly large storm heading through Kansas and closing in on Kansas City.
LikeLike
That would be one possibility. Nasty front passing through Kansas on Sunday night/Monday morning.
LikeLike
As a side note it is nice to see NU and NU… UNL fans are ready to play nice.
Oklahoma State and Oregon State have even more to sort out. They even share the same color scheme. The debate has started here.
http://www.orangepower.com/showthread.php?t=96247
… and somebody is already doing their homework. Ohio State… better get the lawyers on the phone. Nebraska is with us now.
per superpoke:
The US Trademark online database lists “OSU” as being trademarked by the following:
Oklahoma State for the following areas: Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Tennessee, and western Iowa.
Ohio State for the following areas: Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and eastern Iowa.
Oregon State didn’t show up in the database as having an OSU trademark.
The following areas were not listed in either trademark: New Jersey, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Nevada, California, Arizona, Alaska, Hawaii. I would assume most of that would be considered Oregon State’s area if they were listed.
LikeLike
If A&M somehow does take the Pac 10 offer, the first game of the Pac 16 should be A&M at Berkley; it’s the matchup everyone talks about, so get it out of the way first.
But there are other matchups that should happen the first year, and OSU vs OSU is definitely on the list, as is USC vs UT.
LikeLike
I kind of like Oregon vs. OSU, two of the ugliest uniforms in college football. And in the B10 when UNL plays PSU they both will be wearing uniforms that look like they came from the 50s.
LikeLike
M(Ag)
I think A&M at Cal would make for one Hell of a Corps Trip. Imagine a March-in at Berkely!
LikeLike
Has Ohio State trademarked “tOSU”? Because that’s what they seem to insist on being called these days.
I just abbreviate Ohio State as tOSU, Oklahoma State as OSU and don’t bother with Oregon State.
LikeLike
Oklahoma State should be represented as oSu. That’s what their logo looks like.
LikeLike
I think Oregon State has tried to get out of the whole disagreement and just go with “OS”.
LikeLike
Practically probably doesn’t really matter. Ohio State doesn’t use OSU in much official at least anymore. They always write Ohio State or The Ohio State University.
LikeLike
Now the term Ohio has a bit more controversy. Ohio University and OSU were fighting that one out about a decade and a half ago after OU trademarked the word “Ohio” for collegiate purposes. In the past, OSU simply wrote Ohio on jersey’s without even bothering with the word state. I think OSU gave up most of the rights to OU, but it obviously keeps the right to the word Ohio in some contexts. I’ve always liked OSU’s emphasis on the Ohio part of the name rather than the word state, so I hope that doesn’t end.
LikeLike
So neither Ohio State nor Oklahoma State want New Jersey?
LikeLike
Throughout this process we’ve talked about “turning point” schools, whose decisions would affect the rest of the discussion. Missouri, Notre Dame, Nebraska and Texas have all been mentioned in this role.
Texas A&M appears to be the newest of these schools. If they go to the Pac-10, the SEC will probably do nothing, the Big Ten will be at 12 without any obvious targets to go up, and the Pac-16 will be full. The focus turns to those left behind in the Big 12. If they somehow keep the Big 12 together, then the situation is at least temporarily stable in all areas.
If A&M goes to the SEC, the SEC almost certainly will add another school. Assuming that Oklahoma goes with Texas, the SEC will likely go hard after some ACC schools (FSU, Clemson, VT?) and the musical chairs continue.
LikeLike
[url]http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/college/texasam/7051484.html[/url]
[i]In taking all things in consideration, A&M’s leadership is intrigued by playing in the nation’s premier football conference, drawing big crowds to Kyle Field from SEC fan bases that tend to travel well, and a much bigger annual payout from the league, the insider said. The primary downside, of course, is breaking off of a nearly 100-year league affiliation with rival UT that features a nationally-showcased football game every Thanksgiving.
The Aggies are prepared for a rough go early in the tough league, the insider said, but A&M hasn’t been challenging for Big 12 titles anyway. The rival Longhorns, likely headed west as part of a Pac-10 southeastern division, would have more to lose competing in a tougher league, considering they’re already competing for national titles.
A&M, however, reiterated Sunday that is has not turned down the Pac-10 or any options on the table.[/i]
LikeLike
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/college/texasam/7051484.html
“In taking all things in consideration, A&M’s leadership is intrigued by playing in the nation’s premier football conference, drawing big crowds to Kyle Field from SEC fan bases that tend to travel well, and a much bigger annual payout from the league, the insider said. The primary downside, of course, is breaking off of a nearly 100-year league affiliation with rival UT that features a nationally-showcased football game every Thanksgiving.
The Aggies are prepared for a rough go early in the tough league, the insider said, but A&M hasn’t been challenging for Big 12 titles anyway. The rival Longhorns, likely headed west as part of a Pac-10 southeastern division, would have more to lose competing in a tougher league, considering they’re already competing for national titles.
A&M, however, reiterated Sunday that is has not turned down the Pac-10 or any options on the table.”
LikeLike
ESPN News….
LeBron likes Izzo!
Izzo still gathering information.
Can somebody slip Tom some info that makes Cleveland look bad MSU needs Tom way more that the good folks in Ohio.
LikeLike
No surprise, but looks like there is a “buy-in” for BTN.
http://bit.ly/clTc6U
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
On when Nebraska would receive the full financial benefits of being a Big Ten member:
Perlman: “We will be full-fledged members of the Big Ten in 2011. That does not mean that we’ll be full financial partners at that point.”
On if he knows when that time will be:
Perlman: “I do, but the Big Ten wants that to be kept proprietary. There is a certain date we will be full financial partners as well in terms of their distributions. There is a transition period. They’ve always had the two principles in expansion, one was they weren’t going to dilute their own distributions to add a member and they don’t expect a member to take less than what they would’ve had in their prior conference. But everyone recognized it takes a while to build a financial base so that you could bring somebody else up to a full partnership in that sense.”
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
LikeLike
In actuality the Big Ten teams are still buying their way into the BTN. Profits are still going to Fox to repay start-up costs.
According to BTN president Mark Silverman…
“Once Fox recoups its investments in a few years, there will be additional profits that schools will get,” Silverman said.
http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/40560627.html
LikeLike
We are all a bit in the dark as to the financial aspects of the BTN because it is a private company. At this time the schools only receive annual rights fees directly. These fees average $100M/year on an escalating schedule over the life of the deal.
The initial equity stake, annual profits and remaining amount owed to Fox are all a bit unclear. So far the best information I have seen has come from the cable industry analysts at SNL Kagan.
http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=974181
“If that isn’t enough, the Big Ten also has a profit-sharing agreement with the Big Ten Network. Kagan, a leading cable research and finance company, predicts over the next two years that the Big Ten Network will make $100 million in profit.”
“The Big Ten also is an equity partner with the Big Ten Network, owning 51 percent of the company. Kagan values the BTN at $1 billion. And Kagan says the value of BTN in three years could be $2 billion.”
LikeLike
There was an article a month or two ago that stated the Big Ten received $66 million from the BTN as its licensing fee and $62 million in profit distributions. No information has been disclosed about what has been payed to Fox, or if that $62 million distribution is before or after equity repayments to Fox.
LikeLike
From ESPN .. on Missouri..
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5283314
Rule #1 Protect Your Partners!
Note: this is probably not accomplished by going to the competition and not getting anything in writing before they take one of your original partners. Just saying!
LikeLike
I’ll tell ya what. If PITT will go back to their ‘Dorsett/Marino’ era helmet with the cursive ‘Pitt’ they can join.
LikeLike
There is a large portion of the Pitt fanbase that would absolutely love that arrangement. That decision to change the logo and colors was very contentious. The ’09 nike uniforms are definitely a step in the right direction, though.
LikeLike
For chrissake! I hope you aren’t one of those ‘script’ logo squawkers.
I can’t believe that virus has infected this blog.
LikeLike
Well I surely wouldn’t consider myself a squawker and I fully recognize that navy/vegas-gold is here to stay, but I wouldn’t be opposed to an occasional throwback game.
LikeLike
ESPN updated article..
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5282178
It looks like the 5 schools left could split a “hefty” payday fro collecting “exit” fees.. maybe this is how dan beebe got to the 17 million per team number? anybody care to speculate?
LikeLike
duffman —
Instead of an entirely new post, let me re-post (partly edited) from a few days ago:
Here’s a puzzle for the lawyers out there:
The schools leaving the B12 will have to forfeit about $10 million each in 2010 TV money. 7 teams – that’s $70 million that could be split among the 5 rump schools — $14 million.
Now, it takes 9 votes to officially dissolve the B12, then the B12 will not be officially dissolved – only 8 votes are out there to do that. It occurs to me that the rump schools would not want to go to the MWC or CUSA – if they accepted invites to those conferences while the B12 is still in operation (until the end of the 2010-11 season), they might not be able to get the $20 million severance. Would that be the case?
If they forfeit the cash by accepting an invite within the next year, I doubt they go. You better believe the bankrupt Colorado program would make every effort and look for every loophole to keep its $10 million.
So, let’s say the B12 has to legally exist and the leftovers cannot accept invites for the next year. What do they do? The best move seems to be to invite teams from the MWC or CUSA to the B12 (or 8). The other possibility is a ‘reverse takeover’ by the MWC.
In that scenario, the question becomes: do the departing teams still get to vote on conference matters? If they do, then they would probably vote against inviting new schools in order to force a dissolution. After all, the remaining schools need to get a conference schedule for 2011 (unless they want to do a bunch of home-and-home games). If the departing schools lose their voting rights upon accepting an invite, then the leftovers can invite whoever they want and get a $14 million severance check.
If the leftovers can only get the $14 million each by keeping the B12 alive and are the only ones who get to decide on conference matters, then it seems likely that they will invite MWC/CUSA teams to come into the husk of the B12 – KU, KSU, BU, MU, and ISU would then stick together. That would be an attractive option for MWC and CUSA teams – prospective entrants might even get a little financial inducement. The B12 would survive (at least in name – or maybe it would revert to the B8).
Additionally — as long as 5 teams have played in the same conference for (I think) at least 5 years, the conference keeps its BCS bid.
LikeLike
Read somewhere today, but don’t remember the link, that since league is Delaware corporation, it could simply be dissolved by majority vote. Assuming 6 do leave, I suspect it will dissolve by majority vote AFTER Nebraska leaves. Noone else is leaving before 2012.
LikeLike
Correct. B12 is a Delaware corp. Majority vote dissolves. Therefore, if NU, CU, UT, aTm, OU and OSU leave, there are still six members remaining and not a majority to dissolve. For those who’ve already withdrawn, the UT west-exodus is good to assure avoiding this penalty.
However, if you listened to UNL Chancellor Harvey Perlman at the NU Board of Regents meeting, he basically said he believed the penalties would be inappropriate in these circumstances no matter what. For those who are not familiar with HP, he’s the former Dean of the College of Law at Nebraska and taught on the faculty at the University of Virginia. I don’t believe he is simply posturing; I think he would fight any penalty. And I think he might have a case. These were likely not the circumstances contemplated when crafting this liquidated damages clause.
LikeLike
Here is the key issue:
When do you lose your voting rights? Nebraska has accepted a B10 invite — but it will be playing for at least one more season in the B12 (same as Colorado). Have they lost their voting rights as of the date of acceptance?
LikeLike
I don’t have the link, but I recently read that NCAA rules say that any conference that loses teams to the point where it no longer has a minimum of six teams that have played together for at least five years, that conference is automatically disbanded (which also nullifies any exit fees). This is why the Big 12 hasn’t made any moves. Added teams now can’t save them if they lose five more teams.
LikeLike
@Pensfan:
Nebraska is a member of B12 until July 1, 2011, when it officially joins the B10. Nebraska has only given its notice of intent to withdraw at that time. So until then it still has a vote to dissolve.
@Doug
I don’t see how that’s an issue. If there are six teams left, then the conference passes NCAA muster, and the six remaining teams can block a vote to dissolve. If there are only five teams, then the seven have enough for the majority to dissolve. NCAA rule is never a factor.
LikeLike
You guys realize that the Colorado AD operated in the black last year and A&M is way more in debt right? Of course you don’t…the “Colorado is broke” stuff has been overplayed because we didn’t can Hawkins. That said, I’m pretty damn sure every single one of the schools wanting to leave would prefer to find a way not to have to pay if it can be avoided, Texas included. 10 million is as they say “real money” even if you are Texas.
LikeLike
Finally.
I really thought there would be a lot more people posting on this which is what Frank’s post was pertaining to – that is, the sequence of events from this point moving forward.
Question 1. “The dissolution must be a majority vote.” Is that a majority of members or “members in good standing who haven’t opted to leave the Big 12?”
Question 2. Is the extra money an enticement to get A&M to stay in the Big 12 for one more year before leaving?
Question 3. Looking at a logical sequence of events, if the SEC and A&M do get together, does that mean the SEC raids the ACC for one more and even things up? Then, does the ACC raid the BEast and does that start the ND ball rolling?
It’s all about sequence of events and which events go off in what order, as Frank has suggested…
We need a chart that shows how all the dominoes fall when it begins….
LikeLike
From the Chicago Tribune regarding Nebraska and the AAU membership
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-0614-aau-big-ten-expansion–20100613,0,747184.story
LINCOLN, Neb. — The passionate fan base, storied football program and geographic proximity to the rest of the conference — all these factors helped make Nebraska an attractive candidate for the Big Ten’s expansion plans.
But Nebraska had one other criterion vital to Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany and the conference’s presidents and chancellors: membership in the AAU.
No, not the Amateur Athletic Union, which is commonly associated with youth basketball, but rather the Association of American Universities.
“All the Big Ten schools are AAU members,” Nebraska Chancellor Harvey Perlman said. “I doubt that our application would’ve been accepted had we not been a member of the organization.”
So what is the AAU, and why is it so important to the Big Ten members?
It’s a group of 63 elite research universities in the U.S. and Canada. Membership is through invitation only, and the group’s primary focus is evaluating and developing the top graduate programs, not necessarily undergrad programs, spokesman Barry Toiv said.
“(Membership) is generally considered a sign that a research university has arrived as a top research university,” Toiv said.
The AAU is basically a facilitator for collaboration among these universities, a venue where the top officials from member schools gather to exchange ideas and discuss the prevalent issues in education, something that’s critical to college presidents, Toiv said.
Now that Nebraska will be joining the Big Ten, Perlman said that will make avenues of collaboration with the other Big Ten schools a little easier to travel.
“The Big Ten for a long time has been known for being the only conference that has really had a strong academic component through the Committee on Institutional Cooperation,” Perlman said. “Right now, in research, in trying to solve the problems and challenges that face our country, it requires big research projects with our interdisciplinary teams with a lot of folks focusing from various perspectives on the issues.
“The more institutions you can get together in a real collaborative way, the greater likelihood it is that you’ll put the right teams together.”
Perlman added that Penn State’s seamless integration into the conference from a research perspective helped make his decision to switch conferences easy.
Plus, AAU membership is crucial for recruiting elite faculty. It’s a marker of which schools are and aren’t important.
The Big Ten is the only conference that can say all of its members belong to the AAU. It’s a valuable feather in the Big Ten’s cap.
Most schools that have been mentioned as possible expansion candidates already belong to the AAU, including Missouri, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Syracuse and Rutgers. Missouri seems to be out of luck at the moment. Texas is an AAU member but according to multiple reports is deciding whether to join the Pac-10.
Notre Dame and Connecticut are not AAU members but would like to be. So in the hubbub over who else might be invited to join the Big Ten, know that if a school has the black mark of “not being an AAU member,” it likely isn’t by choice.
“It is perhaps the most elite organization in higher education,” Connecticut spokesman Michael Kirk said. “You’d probably be hard-pressed to find a major research university that didn’t want to be a member of the AAU.”
In the case of Notre Dame, the school has a sterling reputation for its undergraduate education. But only in recent years under President John Jenkins has there been a significant push to become a leading research and graduate university. Notre Dame would love to be an AAU member to solidify its status.
“As you know, membership in the AAU is by invitation only, and to date, we have not been invited,” Notre Dame spokesman Dennis Brown said. “We do hope, however, that the progress we are making as a research institution will lead to an invitation in the future.”
Notre Dame’s lack of AAU membership didn’t stop the Big Ten from trying to grab it in 1999, and it probably won’t be a hurdle this time either, given all the other strengths Notre Dame brings to the table.
As for the conference’s newest member, it’s excited to receive the revenue generated by the Big Ten Network and the chance to play in the Big Ten. But its chancellor can’t wait to sit down with other conference members and talk about research.
“I’m sure they’ll have strengths that’ll fill gaps we have, and we may fill gaps that other institutions have,” Perlman said. “It’ll certainly elevate what we’re able to do, and that’s not just important to the institutions, it’s important to the country trying to solve problems.”
LikeLike
Sources tell us that Big 12 schools thinking about Pac10 must wait until after Wed. legislative hearing. Pac10 issues Friday deadline. about 2 hours ago via web
LikeLike
Pingback: Collisions with Reality » Blog Archive » Football (not that kind) drama!
From Scout “College Football News”. A full ranking analysis top to bottom of D1 Football schools Academic Progress (APR).
http://cfn.scout.com/2/976954.html
LikeLike
Big Ten members, Big Ten expansion candidates, and other conference realignment notables and their rankings:
1: Rutgers
3: Rice
4: Illinois
4: Northwestern
6: Duke
7: Notre Dame
7: Miami
10: Ohio State
10: Vandy
13: Penn State
20: Indiana
22: Wisconsin
22: TCU
24: Boston College
24: Clemson
24: Georgia Tech
29: Wake Forest
33: Oklahoma
34: Missouri
35: North Carolina
41: Kansas
44: Pitt
44: Nebraska
49: UConn
49: Utah
53: Virginia
53: Syracuse
53: Texas
59: Iowa
59: Baylor
59: Oklahoma State
65: Texas Tech
67: Houston
69: Michigan State
72: Virginia Tech
72: BYU
83: NC State
84: Michigan
87: Minnesota
87: Kansas State
87: Texas A&M
97: Purdue
100: Maryland
104: Florida State
107: Iowa State
112: Colorado
LikeLike
loki,
Rice is #3
IU is # 20
LikeLike
As I posted right before the everyone moved here from the last thread. The appropriate conference for Rice is the UAA.
LikeLike
Great idea! Ever since Johns Hopkins left, we needed a 5th football school!
LikeLike
Rick – Congrats to Rutgers. Will be interesting to see if Rutgers gets its first ever top spot from AFCA for Academic Achievement. Definitely will be on the list for the 7th time in 29 years.
Looks like SU will miss the list for only the 3rd time in the last 14 years. We are currently 8th all-time in number of appearances on the AFCA Academic Achievement list with 18 appearances trailing ND, Duke, Virginia, BC, Rice, Vandy, and Penn State.
LikeLike
I’m sure that Michigan’s ranking is all RichRod’s fault, too.
LikeLike
It is.
LikeLike
From an A&M site..
http://www.iamthe12thman.com/2010/6/13/1516217/why-the-sec-is-the-only-choice-for
If this is the A&M mainstream, they seem pretty pissed to be in the UT or TT shadow. wow.
LikeLike
substitute “Oklahoma” for where he has “A&M” and you also have OU’s feeling on this as well, right now, though we are also seeing the Big 8 ties get cut as well, and thus the “keep the Big12 alive” option is also good for OU
LikeLike
But why would OU (or UT for that matter) even consider trying to keep the Big 12 alive? The weaknesses of the conference have been brought to light and the blood is now in the water in regards to this conference. I just don’t see a tv network forking over anywhere near SEC type money (I don’t even see them getting ACC type money) because the conference is so unstable.
Is there any type of organized effort by the OU fans and boosters to try and sway the powers that be to consider the SEC? If not, someone needs to get on that. 🙂
LikeLike
Redhawk, Suppose that TX somehow convinces all the “left” schools to seriously reconsider keeping the Big 12
intact. As an Ag, I know how we feel about the Lone Star Network. How does OU feel?
LikeLike
same as the Ags, but not as much. OU has put on some games especially women’s and men’s basketball games on local cable in OKC and Tulsa.
OU’s made a little, and would like to be able to keep putting those games out there. OU has also made a ton on 2 pay-per-view games the last 2 years.
BUT, they fully realize the imbalance that UT has in that area. Also Bevo-TV comes with the usual Texas arrogance that doesn’t help matters.
So…mixed feelings, I think would be a good way of putting it.
LikeLike
UT and OU worked hand in hand to create the B12. I suspect the administrations are working together on the P10 deal, not OU following in Texas shadow, even if the fans don’t like it. OU may have more of a belief in the viability of the B12-2.
As far as A&M, there’s not another school in the country that has as big a chip on their shoulder about their rival. Unless you have seen it its hard to imagine. Thought I saw a UT fan the other day, until I realized it was an Aggie in UT burnt orange with a picture of a Longhorn with its horns cut off. They always call us tu with little letters. Its really quite bizzarre. If you think their comments are hostile towards UT, that’s just normal Aggie talk.
LikeLike
what is a sip? sips came up several times?
LikeLike
Short for Teasip. UT because it has a T and is the city school are the Tea-sippers in Aggie speak. Aggies, being an agricultural school doesn’t sip tea (not that Ags are that high a % anymore).
LikeLike
You obviously haven’t met an Auburn fan. Those guys can get down right psychotic when it comes to Bama.
LikeLike
bama,
I raised this question about bama vs auburn, but did not get an answer.
Is it true or myth that in the past, the loser of the iron bowl had to submit a formal apology to the governor / state / student body? is this true?!
LikeLike
Not true.
LikeLike
bama,
thanks, had it been true I was adding the Iron Bowl to my bucket list (may still) but that would have been unreal.
LikeLike
Right. Darn those Aggies because they have an inferiority complex to “The University”.
Truth be told, the road goes both ways. Yes, the Aggies can go overboard with that chip-on-their-shoulder attitude. Texas fans on the other hand have a superiority complex that just rubs EVERYONE the wrong way – minus Texas Tech right now as they are being very grateful for a place at the dinner table.
When Texas hired Mack Brown to be the coach, the summer before his first season, he hit the road to drum up support in the various local alumni groups throughout the state. He would ask one question that would raise the roof at the time — A&M was on a long winning streak at the time — which team would you rather beat, A&M or OU? The crowds would erupt with, “BOTH!!!” The point being, is that Texas people can be just as impassioned (and can act just as dumb) as other fans.
It is what makes the game a rivalry. Quarks and all.
LikeLike
A lot of Aggies got all bent out of shape about the bumper sticker “The University.” When that was popular, it had nothing whatsoever to do with the Aggies. It was about the board of regents changing the name of the school from “The University of Texas” to “The University of Texas at Austin” to make UTEP, UTSA, UT-Dallas, etc. happy.
LikeLike
Bullet–you haven’t traveled far if you’ve never seen a student wearing a joke t-shirt about another school.
LikeLike
I think, with considering Notre Dame, one has to understand there’s two distinct currents within the Board of Trustees and the ND community as a whole.
One very much wishes to cast the university in the mold of the large research institutions and the elite private universities in this country. These are the “aspirational peers” that Fr. Malloy spoke of when he was president. The faculty makes up a large portion of this and the idea of Big Ten membership, with the corresponding CIC membership and the assist into the AAU all serves this direction.
However, there is a very large contingent of the ND community that has deeply opposed these trends in the University. They’ve bristled at the idea of forcing acceptance criteria (which is not the same as the expectation of excellence on the part of those that are acceptance) to compete with the Stanford and Harvards of the world and that divorces itself from the Irish, working class background that the University arose out of. They’ve railed against the drift away from a Catholic view of higher education, which was symbolically reinforced with the honorary degree to, and commencement address by, President Obama. They’ve been forced to accept all these things, but the last truly unique expression of ND’s history and tradition–Football independence–is their Alamo.
Two problems for Swarbrick and Fr. Jenkins- 1. That tendency makes up a very large percentage of the high dollar donors that make this athletic department run and allow them to have that large scope in non-revenue sports. 2. That viewpoint drives the Subway Alumni culture that makes Notre Dame different from Marquette, DePaul, St. Louis, Creighton, Loyola and the whole set of Midwestern Catholic colleges.
If they make this move, regardless of the circumstances, they will lose most of those individuals, and all the money that surrounds them, for good. They will not be reconciled with an agreement with the institution that fought Rockne and Leahy and lead the boycott of ND football at the start of the last century. If they make this move, Swarbrick and Jenkins will never be able to make peace with them and ND will have done incredible violence to what makes the University like no other. No fencing program or other Olympic sport is worth that. If that means settling all non-football sports in a league with Marquette, DePaul, Dayton, Xavier, SLU, Creighton, etc., then that’s what it will have to take and it’s worth doing to avoid the bridge too far.
LikeLike
That’s one of the dumbest arguments I have ever heard. Not that you are dumb for bring it up Gozer. I would be willing to bet that the university wins as much as it loses in terms of fan and financial support. I don’t know if there are really Irish catholic families living off potatoes and water just because they have to send a check to Notre Dame or that there are a lot of rich old alum doing the same. My point is the other Big ten universities have alum too and they give because they are the alum of one undergrad school. If you’re a Domer and ND joins the Big ten so then what do you do, send your money to Boston College??? This is a foolish argument not worthy of a graduate of a top 30 school. When ND starts winning they will come running to kiss the arse of the leprechaun I say. So they’ll get over it.
LikeLike
No, Domers’ll keep their money in their wallets, send their kids to CUA, Franciscan, or State, and start cleaning gutters on Saturdays. Not all of them, but many. ND doesn’t have many alums to begin with, and the ones it has knows the only thing the Admin understands from them is cash. I don’t know how smart it is to cheese off the people writing the checks and tuning in every home football Saturday.
Don’t be so sure the alumni will come back. I didn’t go to a Big Ten school. If a Big Ten school calls me for money I think I can honestly say I do not know them.
LikeLike
blah blah blah blah blah
LikeLike
“This gives to teeth to the rumored pressure from the Big East on Notre Dame to make a decision on whether to join for all-sports.”
Who, exactly, is the source of this rumor of pressure? On WildcatReport.com (a Northwestern message board), a poster with the handle of “PURPLE Book Cat” claimed that on this past Thursday, such an ultimatum was given to ND by the Big East, and claimed on Friday that ND knew “the Big East was untenable”. Other than here and that site, I have not heard/read anything about any such pressure/ultimatum.
Source, please?
LikeLike
When this whole PAC-10 stuff started, I posited that it might founder on negotiating terms of entry, voting rights, conference governance and other ‘transactional friction.’
Generally, I think bleacherreport stinks, but this link goes to an article that lists some of the problems that the B12S teams and the PAC-10 have to face. Some of these are pretty daunting.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/405659-pac-10-expansion-inside-the-board-room
LikeLike
All this post did was reinforce my aversion to adding Notre Dame.
Delany should not spend any more time trying to manipulate a snobby private school into doing something that it doesn’t want to do.
If we absolutely need Notre Dame or Texas to get to 16 and start printing money, I’d rather move the Big Ten offices to Austin, play the conference championship in Dallas every year, redesign the Big Ten logo with a longhorn in the middle instead of an 11, and add Rice and Texas.
LikeLike
Now you’re talking!
Sincerely,
DeLoss Dodds
LikeLike
I agree with Bamatab 100% about why the schools would all take the deal.
Being a part of the “Texas Ten Conference” is the only option for Iowa State/Kansas State/Baylor and even Kansas/Missouri at some level.
They have to take any deal offered to them, no matter how lopsided the terms.
Would you rather make $15M in the Texas Ten or $3M in the Big East? At a certain point, you have to please the alumni/students who would never accept the administration turning down such a deal, no matter how high the indignity of it all…
LikeLike
Oops, posted wrongly…
LikeLike
I think you all have some great ideas, and I love the discussion… but there’s one scenario no one (at least, I don’t think) has considered:
Notre Dame will join the ACC because “it’s a better institutional fit.” The Big Ten will expand and rest at 15 teams. Time will pass. And then the Big Ten will raid the ACC for Notre Dame. The end.
I hope I blew some minds. Thank you, thank you.
LikeLike
irish,
we discussed already a few blogs ago
🙂
LikeLike
Aww.
LikeLike
http://www.annarbor.com/sports/um-football/whats-next-in-big-ten-expansion/
Top 5 schools in the mix for the next phase of Big Ten expansion (fwiw)
LikeLike
adding once again
LikeLike
And again you seem to be too ignorant to realize that what he is saying is that it could be any of those five, not all of those mentioned.
LikeLike
Add
LikeLike
Assessing The Financial Impact Of Pac 10 Expansion
http://blogs.forbes.com/sportsmoney/2010/06/assessing-the-financial-impact-of-pac-10-expansion/
LikeLike
anybody notice Forbes writing more articles on college sports money?
I guess in the future we will look for game results in the WSJ rather than our local sports section.
LikeLike
its big business. and the BTN and whatever similar models develop are going to increasingly become a significant component of the sports business landscape.
LikeLike
I can’t get any game results west of the Mississippi in the Atlanta paper. I have to rely on the internet. Sometimes they don’t even include late eastern games.
WSJ has had some interesting articles on sports. I remember one about 10-15 years ago talking about money games and what it meant for schools like Akron.
LikeLike
This article explains exactly why I believe taking Texas-Tech would have been a small price to pay for gaining the goldmine that is the Southwest region.
In fact, taking TT and Oklahoma would have been worth it.
LikeLike
not sure.
you would have to know what the realistic numbers are for the alternatives.
also from the Big Ten perspective Tech adds nothing. it is entirley within the Texas footprint and would bring no additional households and likely little additional advertising revenue. so yes Texas is extremely valuable but is it worth more than any two other schools combined. If you look at Frank’s stab at putting a value on these numbers he has Texas at just over $100 mln, I believe Rutgers at $67 million and about 5 schools clusterd around $50 miilion. So Texas is worth a lot more than anyone else but Texas and Tech may be worth less than Rutgers and Maryland. Of course the actual Big Ten studies may show different numbers 🙂
Oklahoma would probably be a better comparison but that is still a smal market.
LikeLike
I wouldn’t want 3 TX teams in the BT – that’s 2 too many…
LikeLike
Big 12 stays in a holding pattern
http://www.statesman.com/sports/big-12-stays-in-a-holding-pattern-745720.html
LikeLike
Well it is about the AAU after all.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-0614-aau-big-ten-expansion–20100613,0,747184.story
Kansas will you be expecting a call from delany?
LikeLike
for the IU folks on this board
http://www.indystar.com/article/20100614/SPORTS15/6140318/1004/SPORTS/So-where-will-Big-Ten-expansion-money-go
Fred Glass gets some ink.
🙂
hey if football is bad , and basketball is down , at least it is nice to get in the news.
LikeLike
The IU Presient and AD have been completely silent in all the BT expansion discussions. I think that accurately reflects their repsective positions amoung their peers.
LikeLike
Harsh, but probably true; and that article was somewhat sad, how in the world are their facilities in such bad shape.
LikeLike
Frank,
the next Blog might be titled “Mr Toads Wild Ride”! as this week looks to be a roller coaster ride for the folks on here.
For Big 10 readers here, tell Tom that Cleveland is just a sirens song and the folks here need and love him.
SAVE IZZO, SAVE FERRIS!
LikeLike
adding
LikeLike
Morning folks..
What I am watching today….
a) Big 12 “Survivor” after Nebraska and Colorado have been kicked off the island. Sorry for the analogy, but right now Missouri feels sorta like that Richard Hatch guy in doing what it takes to not get kicked off next, even after being the manipulator in the first place.
b) Alan & Bama thanks for your input on SEC thoughts. If A&M finds a new home in the SEC you guys think FSU / Va Tech are next. After spending this weekend looking at Va Tech comments it looks like they are in a similar frame of mind as A&M.
UT / A&M = Dr. Evil
UVA / Va Tech = Mini Me
c) If the Big 10 gets UT, but takes TT or OU to do it, has delany sold his soul to the devil (sorry with the ND folks like FLP, had to get religion in somehow) for the identity of the Big 10.
d) Welcome to Big Red! I know we are still back on what happens next, but I am happy to have you in the family and want you feel welcome in your new home. Texas is getting much time and attention, so I just wanted to say we are thinking about you.
*wonders how much legal work will get done this week based on the lawyers on this blog*
LikeLike
Chip Brown: According to sources, Texas will announce as early as today that UT will commit to a 10-member Big 12
http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1094038
LikeLike
Count me as someone who would be elated to see that.
LikeLike
Just looking at the value here, I think almost every school is best served by this except the Pac-10 (hence the Pac-16).
The SEC doesn’t need to expand, and we don’t know whether they have a partner for A&M; in fact, the SEC is the one league that came into this expansion discussion needing no change.
The ACC doesn’t want the Big Ten or SEC to contemplate going over 12 because it means they will be raided.
The Big Ten finally has 12 with a strong addition, and we don’t see any candidates for 13-16 that want to join at this time or that necessarily make sense.
The Big 12 seems to be best served since they’re the ones who bring the much stronger footprint to the Pac-16 (the 6 schools going anyways), and the Big 12 North obviously is better off staying put.
The Pac-10 are the big losers if this doesn’t go through. We’ve discussed numerous times how the Pac-10 needs a deal to catch up to the Big Ten and SEC. The Big Ten will become much stronger with Nebraska and a CCG that looks to be almost as big as the SECCG due to the fact that the Big Ten isn’t too far off from the SEC in terms of intensity. The Pac-10 will grab Utah if this Pac-16 collapse is true, but a Pac-10 CCG looks to be about as popular as the ACCCG if USC isn’t there…
LikeLike
Oh, forgot to add, Notre Dame should also be happy to see the Big Ten take 12 and for no other conference breach 12. That puts an end to any Notre Dame talk for the foreseeable future much more so than the past 20 years during which it was at 11 schools.
LikeLike
zeek,
my question?
a) is texas posturing
b) has Texas agreed to give everyone in a Big 12 Lite and equal share / say
from all the conversations here, one of these is the answer, the problem is which one?
LikeLike
I don’t think Texas is posturing.
I think the Big 12 makes more sense anyways for Texas in terms of the fact that they bring the best footprint in the country outside of the East.
They don’t need to give equal share.
Say UT makes $17M, OU makes $17, A&M makes $17M, the other 7 can make $14-15M and they won’t complain at all.
In fact that would double most of the other schools’ takes.
I think Texas is only going to get more powerful without Colorado and Nebraska in the Big 12.
LikeLike
UNL and CU are definitely a loss to Texas and B12-2. A solid B12N is better for all. Lower profile for the league is not beneficial to anyone. I think they have to get back to 12 realtively quickly. Championship game probably pays for 1 school, so they have to get 2 schools who can generate 1/12 of revenue combined.
Well, we’ll hear lots of rumours all day. Probably will know tomorrow whether the dominos really start falling or if it all stops until or if B10 moves again.
LikeLike
How are the Pac-10 losers if they add Colorado and Utah? They could still expand in the future.
LikeLike
If the Big 12 added two its hard to see how that would increase share per team. What markets/brands could they add that had value? When in new entrant had to agree to being second class? Especially as they could approximate the TV value of the Big 12 CCG by moving UT-OU to the first week of November.
LikeLike
If the Pac 10 stops expansion with just taking Colorado and Utah, they should rename to the conference the 12-Pack.
LikeLike
Do those two teams pay off though necessarily?
And what guarantee does the Pac-10 have that it will not have a CCG that will be like the ACC.
If USC isn’t in the championship game, we’ll see how well it does…
LikeLike
alan,
it has marketing tie in with Coors ready made….
“Welcome to the 12 Pac, brought to you by Coors”
LikeLike
Maryland, Virginia have not said anything about not wanting to go to Big Ten and what doesn’t make sense about Rutgers, Syracuse, Pitt, Missouri, or Kansas?
LikeLike
How sure are we that those teams are all profitable up to 14.
Even Nebraska isn’t going to completely pay off under the assumption that they’re entering the Big Ten and being scaled up so that everybody is made whole.
My best guess is that Nebraska will bring in more than it brought to the Big 12, but the synergy won’t kick in till the Big Ten network starts to see it payoff in terms of increased viewership/subscribership, etc. in no uncertain terms.
Can everyone be made whole if the other expansion candidates join?
Rutgers/Maryland/Missouri possibly. Syracuse/Pitt seem unlikely though.
You’d need Notre Dame to join with one of those two for sure in order for it to work.
LikeLike
I proposed that the Big 10 offer Rutgers and Syracuse the opportunity to enter with 1/2 member shares initially, gradually increasing, and was told that this is not how the Big 10 operates.
Under my scenario, they would only have to add $22M total to break even.
Apparently, the Nebraska situation confirms that there IS a ramping up (even for Nebraska).
LikeLike
Me too. Even if it’s not stable long term it slows down the process.
But once Texas develops the LSN, joining a conference with an existing network becomes much more complicated.
LikeLike
Not if it flops in three years. Just sayin’.
LikeLike
Thoughts:
1. Best outcome for Big 10 if they can’t get Texas to join now.
2. The spin is now “The Aggies can be seen as the final piece of the puzzle to holding the Big 12 together.”
Wow… Chip’s sources at Texas really want to find someone else to blame for the (potential) breakup of the Big 12. I’m certainly not saying it’s Texas’s fault – it’s not. But they seem awfully interested in making sure everyone knows that.
LikeLike
Now the two conferences just need to trade names and we can put this whole tawdry affair behind us!
LikeLike
Paul,
*golf clap*
well played!
🙂
LikeLike
Scott never made it to Lawrence, either
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (AP) – Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott filed a flight plan that would have put him in Kansas City on Sunday night, apparently to talk conference expansion with Kansas.
But the private plane that carried Scott and deputy commissioner Kevin Weiberg to Oklahoma and Texas on Saturday and Sunday did not make its scheduled 9:48 p.m. CDT arrival at Kansas City International Airport.
According to its flight plan, it was supposed to fly in from Austin, Texas.
An official at the airport said apparently the flight had been changed or canceled.
Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins has refused to speak with reporters since the school announced earlier in the week that he would retire in September 2011. Jim Marchiony, an associate athletic director at Kansas, said Perkins was “working around the clock” to find a major conference for the Jayhawks if the Big 12 continues to crumble.
© KSAL News
http://www.ksallink.com/?cmd=displaystory&story_id=13573&format=html
LikeLike
I do NOT buy this story one bit.
Everyone and his brother and sister has figured out by now that Chip Brown is getting his info from Texas AD DeLoss Dodds.
Dodds has to cover his a– because he has to testify in front of the State of Texas House of Representatives on Wednesday.
I expect all h— will break loose again after the hearing on Wednesday.
LikeLike
So let me get this straight…
Beebe has 6 months to work on TV packages that will ensure the sustainability of the Big 12 and he comes up with one only after Nebraska and Colorado move on?
He pulls this off despite aTm having detailed conversations with the SEC, which HAS to be getting some input from at least ESPN?
He does this despite certain B12 South schools having detailed conversations with the P-16 despite Fox involvement there?
Meanwhile, Missouri has been linked to the MWC which is undoubtedly working with Comcast to understand the financial impact there.
LikeLike
So let me get this straight. Last week (according to UT) the Big 12-lite was not revivable if Nebraska left. It couldn’t be done, no way no how. Now that aTm decides to not be UT’s lapdog and actually try and better itself, Beebe all of a sudden solves the unanswerable riddle of how the Big 12-lite can be saved and that can pay each school in the neighborhood of $17m? The Big 12-lite, that has been exposed as a conference that will be made up of UT and a bunch of schools that will have to do their bidding (which appears fom the outside looking in to have a great deal of animosity because of that fact)?
First off, would a tv network actually consider giving this conference a deal worth that much money (even when the ACC could only get $13-$14m which no one expected only because ABC/ESPN got into an unexpected bidding war with Fox) even though it appears to be a house of cards? I don’t see how Beebe can guarantee that to the schools. Nor do I see how the schools could actually believe him.
Also, how can aTm actually see the desperation that UT is now expressing in keeping them from going to the SEC, and not realize that moving to the SEC is actually in their best interest? There is a reason why UT is now scrambling to make sure this doesn’t happen. And I don’t buy that the only reason that UT doesn’t want aTm to go to the SEC is because they are afraid that the SEC schools will start recruiting all of the Texas recruits. UT will still sign practically any player they want in Texas. Heck, their recruiting classes are usually almost complete by the end of the summer. I personally think UT is truely scared that aTm might actually level the playing field (to an extent) with them both on the field and in the media. Heck if aTm goes to the SEC, they might actually get a little bit of exposure in the media and may actually get a couple more recruits.
Heck if I’m aTm, I wouldn’t fall for this latest ploy. Even if UT and Beebe could revive the Big 12-lite, it would be a house of cards with watered down competition (with Nebraska leaving).
LikeLike
Odds are that this is merely a PR stunt by UT trying to paint the Aggies as the bad guys.
First, Beebe does not have a firm contract offer–all he has is “information,” and my understanding is that the numbers come from Fox, and are based upon a VERY long term contract, something like 18 years.
Second, if Texas still gets its own network, I think that this would probably be a deal breaker for A&M. A&M needs to be in a conference that has its own network, or has such a good TV deal that only a minimal amount of games would be available for a cable network (the state is so big, and the A&M fan base so widely distributed that it would be hard for A&M to set up a cable network that would come anywhere close to what Texas gets).
Finally, as we’ve all seen with the recent reshuffling, signing a new TV deal wouldn’t lock Texas into the Big XII any more than Colorado and Nebraska were locked in. Any time they wanted, Texas could simply leave for another conference, or, if their cable network works really well, go independnt as they have threatened.
LikeLike
Funny that they’d be willing to do that now, but not earlier when Nebraska asked for reassurances.
LikeLike
Tony Barnhart at the AJC.
http://blogs.ajc.com/barnhart-college-football/2010/06/14/what-we-know-dont-know-about-expansion/
for a guy not supposed to be writing till July 5th (vacation?) this expansion things seems to have interrupted it.
“We’re going to take our annual June break in order to get our batteries recharged and to do all the chores that Mrs. College Football has on her list. We’ll resume our daily efforts on Monday, July 5 when we’ll start getting ready for what is already shaping up to be another wild season.”
Having written 3 stories since, my guess is the “HoneyDo List” is on hold till this thing begins to shake out. Mr. College Football, we all may be in the doghouse the longer this goes on!
LikeLike
5. Will the Big Ten stop at 12? If you’re an SEC fan, this is the conference you should be watching. Even if there is a Pac-16 with Texas and Oklahoma in it, I don’t think the SEC will feel compelled to expand. And if the SEC gets Texas A&M and adds another school (insert your favorite team here) then it could stop at 14. That puts the SEC into the Texas market and makes their television package more valuable. That would be seen as a win for the SEC.
But if the Big Ten exercises the nuclear option and goes to 16, the SEC will have some intresting decisions to make. Under that scenario I once thought the SEC would look to the ACC. I no longer feel strongly that will be the case.
LikeLike
Pingback: I'm in Love with a Fringe Bowl Team » AM Coffee Links! 6/14
if the expansion carousel stops now, at least for the ime being, I’m very happy with where the Big Ten winds up. Nebraska is such a great and natural fit it already seems like they’ve been in for years. This is a Penn State level addition. just a great fit.
LikeLike
Just comparing the moves, the Big Ten comes out way ahead. And when the Pac-12 (Utah/Colorado) CCG with the Big Ten CCG, I’m almost certain that the Pac-12 CCG will look like the ACCCG whereas the Big Ten CCG will resemble the SECCG.
LikeLike
this is scond hand from a friend I trust…
I can vouch for this guy – he is a fairly close friend. As late as a week ago, he didn’t think it was going to happen. But now…
VT is in a freaking bind here. It looks like A&M is bucking the trend and not giving into Texas’s strong-arming and going to the SEC. If that happens then it is very, very likely that the 14th team is going to come from the ACC – and VT is a prime candidate (*the* prime candidate?) for spot #14 since it’s a new TV market and doesn’t conflict with any of the current SEC teams’ wishes.
I know that LSU and Alabama admins are very much for VT being in the SEC. On the academic side, VT and A&M are basically sister schools (only 2 non-military schools in country with a Corps of Cadets).
The bind is that VT wants to be in the ACC due to the geographic advantages and academics, but can’t really pass up an SEC offer if it means that another ACC team will be selected if VT declines. I think either way VT will be ok, but our administration may have some tough decisions to make.
LikeLike
Sweet. I expect Delany to be calling Maryland & Virginia.
LikeLike
*high fives richard*
LikeLike
Someone usually links Mr.SEC so I’m not going to link it again. Easy enough to find if noone has. He has a number of links in his article, including an interview with the IU athletic director. Interesting point is that the IU AD thinks some form of playoff is inevitable and soon.
If B12-2 holds together (do we trade names with B10+1+1?), wonder if that would still be his thinking. The one thing I do like about the 4 superconferences is that it does facilitate a playoff. Its a lot easier to do an 8 team (or 9 with a play-in) tournament that’s relatively inclusive when you only have 4 autobids instead of 6; and 7 to 9 conferences instead of 11.
LikeLike
http://www.indystar.com/article/20100614/SPORTS15/6140318/1004/SPORTS/So-where-will-Big-Ten-expansion-money-go
Second, a national football playoff is in the cards. Finally.
“Absolutely,” he said. “I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen very, very soon, maybe as soon as 2011.”
LikeLike
sorry to make the above clear, the source is a member of the VT administration.
LikeLike
Sources say Texas will commit to 10-member Big 12
LikeLike
Texas schools will stay with big 12 and stay a 10 member league. Loss of colorado was actually no big deal for the league because they were under-achievers and brought little value to the league, according to recent comments by B12 commish.
Losing Nebraska calculates to an 8-10% loss in league value, which will be made up in the new TV deal since only 10 schools are splitting the TV money pie, plus the exilt money garnered from CO and Neb.
With 10 schools, north and south divisions will be discarded and everyone will play everyone, ending the problemmatic north v south divisions. Also, Texas will be able to start their own TV thing, which it wouldn’t be able to do in the new PAC16.
Lots of great reasons for the B12 (now B10) to stay together. B10 will concentrate on Big East now to force ND into the fold. They will probably take Delaney’s fav Rutgers, I think, then put pressure on ND and stop at 14 for a while and see what other conferences are doing by then.
I think Texas is willing to stay put and keep their kingly stature in the B12. It’s aTm that holds the cards. Frank, you are right, they would get a great deal in the SEC. Can the B12 overcome aTm leaving…dunno about that.
Rumors are that B12 is asking Arkansas to dump SEC (never was a good fit) and join B12. B12 TV deal coming up is a whopper if it stays together, and may be more lucrative for ARK to leave, but who knows, if aTm goes, Ark will stay put in SEC.
My money is on the B12 staying together, the PAC 10 adds Utah and gets dissapointed on their grand scheme, the B10 adds Rutgers and ND, and from then on, God only knows.
LikeLike
If A&M and Arkansas switch there is no reason for the SEC to add another or 14th team.
In many ways I think that would be a trade that would benefit all parties (which is the key to any good trade)
LikeLike
It would be a good deal for everybody . . . except Arkansas.
LikeLike
Colorado was under-achieving? psh; sounds like sour grapes from Beebe. Colorado was very good for the first decade of the big 12. There’s a reason they had their season ending game against Nebraska.
No way Arkansas voluntarily gets of the SEC gravy-train.
LikeLike
ESPN.. just reported..
Pac 10 will happen – new Pac 16 move all but assured as beebe has failed to hold things together.
A&M split – looks like has enough votes to SEC
leave “new” Pac 16, leave UT and OU
Utah has edge on Kansas to Pac 16
Pac 10 Larry Scott “selling dream” to Big 12
ESPN reporting move will be done at or before upcoming meetings
LikeLike
Up until not very long ago (last week), I thought that Texas ran the smartest athletic department in the country, However, if Texas is truly committing to this 10-team Big 12 instead of posturing, their hubris is going to be their long-term downfall. If Texas A&M has any brains whatsoever, they will be going to the SEC immediately.
LikeLike
It is remarkable how the one with the most power in this whole thing seems to always be forced into things.
LikeLike
Yeah, this seems as a way of UT getting A&M to commit to the Big 12 as well.
It would be hilarious though if A&M actually did manage to bolt to the SEC (I think it’s very remote if Texas commits to the Big 12) because then Texas would be forced into the Pac-10’s arms.
Texas has not done that great a job of giving out ultimatums.
If Perlman was right that they told him they would not commit to the Big 12 if Missouri/Colorado left, then Texas handled this in a disastrous way.
It was obvious to all of us that only Nebraska/ND/Texas justified Big Ten expansion to 12 (and stopping).
Sure, Perlman made the TV rights offer, but still, Texas hasn’t been handling the poker playing that well at all.
LikeLike
Funny how the gripe is that TX is too powerful and doesn’t listen, but when TX does listen and cooperates instead of powering ahead, that’s considered just as bad.
Often the wisest use of power is actually deploying it as little as possible. The perception of the power is what’s key.
LikeLike
My perspective from down here.
aTm has been an SEC school since at least the ’60s. It’s about time they made it official.
Texas hubris has been a problem the entire time. I’ve tried to talk to Texas fans and explain to them that their geographic situation is a problem. They will be an outlier no matter what conference they go to. They think they just get to pick where they go.
Also, no one here wants to talk about the fact that the state has too many D1A programs (10, with two more in the pipeline, Texas State and UTSA).
LikeLike
Updated: June 14, 2010, 10:38 AM ET
Sources: Departure to Pac-10 coming
* Email
* Print
* Comments39
By Joe Schad
ESPN
Archive
The departure of Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to the Pac-10 is imminent, four sources within the Big 12 said Monday.
One source said commissioner Dan Beebe’s last-minute plan to save the conference has “zero” chance to succeed. Another source said it is “very unlikely” to succeed.
Texas’ interests in being aligned with the research opportunities and academic missions of Pac-10 schools is driving the decision, along with money.
Beebe’s last-ditch plan included an emotional plea about preserving rivalries and maintaining the best welfare of the student-athlete, one source said.
Texas A&M is now most likely to join the SEC, a source within the Big 12 said. This move, in the wake of Colorado and Nebraska’s departure, would further diminish the chance of Beebe’s plan succeeding, one source said.
Texas’ decision is expected to come no later than Tuesday. One source familiar with Texas’ plans suggested a hearing on Wednesday at the Texas House of Representatives is “a nonfactor.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5284375
LikeLike
So is this all a ploy to make A&M into another Arkansas or what?
Because now UT has it set up in a way that if A&M bolts, UT has to bolt…
LikeLike
I think that will be the spin.
It’s not UT’s fault it’s A&M’s, and UT HAS to go to another conference now…and NO UT can NOT take Baylor or Houston, no matter how you try to force them on UT.
LikeLike
who then is PAC’s #16 team?
LikeLike
Utah/Kansas
Take your pick.
LikeLike
They think they just get to pick where they go.
So far that appears to be the case. What conference is TX being forced into against their will?
LikeLike
Apparently the Big Ten if Chip is right that Texas will commit to the Big 12 and ESPN is right that A&M will bolt anyways, forcing Texas into the Pac-10…
LikeLike
er I meant Pac-10
LikeLike
You sure that isn’t TX’s choice?
LikeLike
Well I meant in terms of appearances.
Texas is making it appear as if they’re being forced into the Pac-10 if they commit to the Big 12 and then A&M pulls an Arkansas and bolts for the SEC.
Chip Brown almost always writes about what Texas wants from an appearance kind of view.
Like when Nebraska was about to bolt and he suddenly changed his tune and said “Texas is willing to make everyone a lot of money”, etc.
You’re entirely right that Texas may in fact want the Pac-10 but is setting A&M up for the fall.
I don’t really think that they’re acting like that though…
LikeLike
“You sure that isn’t TX’s choice?”
Yes. The status quo Big 12 was the Texas choice with an LSN for themselves. Everything beyond that is compromise because their position is eroding.
LikeLike
The 10 programs is not a problem for Texas, Tech and A&M. Its a problem for the other 7. Just as the 8 in Ohio doesn’t trouble Ohio St. Its bad for Miami, Toledo, et.al. And the 5 in Louisiana are only a problem for the 4 not in the SEC.
LikeLike
Bullet -I can’t remember LSU ever losing a recruit to ULL, ULM, Tulane or LA Tech, but it is a bad allocation of scarce state resources to prop up these mid-major schools just so they can be a punching bag for the big boys.
There is no shame in being in 1-AA, now FCS. ULM won the 1-AA national championship back in the 80s, now they’re ecstatic to go 6-6. Maybe one day, they might even make it to the R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.
LikeLike
It’s an issue in Texas because eight of the ten were once peers in a major conference. And most of them have not adjusted their egos/aspirations to the status of also-rans.
LikeLike
Probably a little harder to let go as unlike Miami, Toledo, LaLa, etc., most of the Texas schools were actually big time at one time. Texas A&M actually played all its home games w/Rice in Houston for about 10 years in the 50s because they drew better there. There’s a reason Rice built a 70k stadium in 1950 (and as far as sight lines, I doubt there is a better stadium in the country). TCU and Rice were DKR’s biggest challenges in the late 50s. TCU was per Royal, like a cockroach. “It wasn’t what they picked up and carried off, it was what they fell into and messed up.”
TCU and SMU were national powers in 30s and 40s. SMU had the best professional team in Dallas in the 80s-just ask Craig James.
UH won the SWC title 3 of the 1st 4 years in the conference. As late as 1990, they were ranked in the top 5 (before they went to Austin).
The pros killed the small privates. UH was hurt by the pros, but mostly killed itself.
For those who think TCU belongs in the BCS, Baylor was far and away the 4th strongest program in the conference in SWC at the end. TCU in a major conference would become a Baylor or Vanderbilt, or if they were lucky, a Northwestern.
LikeLike
My guess is that this is a bluff to:
1) Show the legislators they did all they could
2) Make aTm take the blame for destroying the conference, just like they did with NE. (Though in both cases it is true, they acted, TX reacted, after TX had prepared contingency plans)
3) Get Baylor or another Texas team into the P16 for more voting power, easier travel, easier schedules, and political goodwill in the statehouse.
However, could all of this also be about creating a playoff system based on 12-team conferences instead of 16-team?
Here’s what I wrote yesterday:
———–
Can’t see OU going to the SEC without OK St or TX. Are they really going to play an SEC schedule plus those 2 rivals out of conference?
Hence unless the SEC is willing to offer aTm, OU, AND OK St, OU goes with TX.
Keeping the band together in a B10-too is probably just a negotiating tool and a way to show the Wed. Texas legislative hearing that all options were given due consideration. Perhaps also to make sure the P10 doesn’t bring in tougher Utah instead of closer and easier to beat KS.
Regarding the Big Ten (sic) (sic) and some last minute shocking deal, uh, maybe. Someone had an interesting post on the NW board wondering if they’d take OU if it gets TX and ND, and why OU or aTM is necessary to get TX.
A crazy thought: With the nexus of college football in Austin this weekend mapping out the future, could we see a Grand Compromise that shifts the expected 16-school super conference template back to 12?
If TX and OU go to the SEC, college football becomes permanently and severely unbalanced. Not good. If TX and ND go to the B10+ and aTm and OU to the SEC and form super conferences, the P10 almost certainly can’t go past 14 and probably not 12. Again unbalanced and a bit of a mess.
But if TX, aTm, and OU stay and take the B10-too back to 12, there’s a chance to end the arms race for now with everyone staying or reaching 12. SEC may have found the ACC too tough a nut to crack, so they’d be good with that. The P10 would be relieved. If TX is off the table and ND has her heels dug in, would B10+ be satisfied with NE and agree to a ceasefire?
What might make this viable and lasting would be if TX gets most of the conferences to agree to a BCS overhaul into some kind of playoff system. SEC and ACC have been for that before, I could see the vulnerable P10 under new leadership agreeing if it capped conference size at 12, allowing them to maintain their academic ‘purity.’ Same for the BEast if it staves off B10+ and ACC raids. So that could be 5 of the 6 BCS conferences in favor.
I’ve not seen a leak directly hinting in that direction, just pure speculation on my part. But recall that Delany at one point was in favor of a +1 playoff, only to have the B10+ presidents shoot him down. Not inconceivable that he could come around to a bowl-based playoff plan based on a 12-school conference template. See this post and the article it links to:
https://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2010/04/01/the-real-economic-reason-for-ncaa-tournament-expansion-avoiding-a-pay-cut/#comment-58777
LikeLike
To emphasize, IU AD thinks a playoff is likely, and soon:
http://www.indystar.com/article/20100614/SPORTS15/6140318/1004/SPORTS/So-where-will-Big-Ten-expansion-money-go
Second, a national football playoff is in the cards. Finally.
“Absolutely,” he said. “I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen very, very soon, maybe as soon as 2011.”
———
Also note that at 12 the P10 gets to keep its academic ‘purity.’
LikeLike
Those are interesting thoughts, but the Pac-10 is serious about going to 16.
The Big Ten is also serious about going to 16 or at the very least 14 (Notre Dame isn’t going to be 12 and stop forever anymore).
The SEC does want inroads to Texas and probably the mid-atlantic region, so they will likely attempt to end up at 14 or 16 someday.
I don’t really think that this is all about 12 team playoffs. Every league wants more TV markets and recruiting areas, etc.
LikeLike
I was really shocked when the BE and B12 opposed the +1 plan last year. A number of coaches, ADs and even presidents have come out in favor of a playoff in those 2 leagues. I could be mistaken, but I’m pretty sure I once saw Dodds coming out in favor of a playoff. Could be only a few Presidents really liked it or they could be waiting for a better time or plan. Now might be a better time and the time to come up with a better plan.
LikeLike
@Frank, this is Texas state politics. Texas, Texas A&M and Texas Tech all have things to consider that go beyond the self-interest of their individual institutions and athletic departments. This is part of the reason I thought Texas A&M would have been wise to accept the PAC10 offer, by trying to go their own way they make Texas, Tech and themselves vulnerable (as a group) to political manuevering that is not good for any of them.
LikeLike
Texas is AGAIN trying to lay all of the pressure and all of the political backlash on A&M. All of this is UT spin and politics. UT is not dropping the LSN, as Texas and OU have demanded (along with Nebraska last week). Texas is posturing now with ultimatums (AGAIN) because they know the deal is already done.
Texas is using the LSN to shake the political baggage and try to get everyone else a home somewhere. Texas would make huge money (for themselves) with the LSN and none of the conference powers are going to stand by and take it. As soon as another opening comes they’ll be running from UT.
LikeLike
Both Texas and Notre Dame want to have a one way open marriage with a conference. I really don’t think this is compatible. If they insist on it then its obvious what their best option is. That would be independence. With any conference worth its salt that would mean complete independence. If Texas sticks in a broken Big IIX then anyone can basically pencil in the conference champion for the next 10 -20 years. This would be a cake walk to the BCS.
LikeLike
Frank,
maybe spongebob sums it all up
humm
LikeLike
Duff – Beebe’s plan to save the Big XII-2 is crazy talk!
LikeLike
Alan,
just released BeeBe’s job audition
http://www.collegehumor.com/video:1912673
enjoy
LikeLike
One interesting tidbit buried in Chip Brown’s latest Orangeblood post is that the estimates Texas has received on the value of Bevo TV is $3-5 Million a year — after covering start-up costs. Not real impressive.
IOW, this whole “keep the Big 12 thing together” is just another empty Texas promise to try to deflect blame. They know aTm can’t turn down an SEC offer.
The real question I still have, is why Texas prefers the Pac10 to the Big Ten. Don’t buy “Tech problem” since vitrually everything that has come out of the UT mouths has proven to be, uhh, suspect.
LikeLike
I disagree. I think TU setting up its own little kingdom is great for them. It’s like I say, there are other ways to make money. TU doesn’t have to join anyone to make tons of cash. Also agree that aTm should run, not walk, to the SEC.
LikeLike
How would the bloggers here feel if this is the final plays..
A) Pac 10 goes to Pac 16 (with UT and OU)
B) A&M and Va Tech go to SEC
C) Big 10 gets MD and UVA
D) UNC and NCST go to SEC
E) Rutgers and ND go to Big 10
F) BE/ACC and WAC/MWC form East / West secondary conferences
G) we all go back to work, and wait till football starts in a few months.
LikeLike
D) won’t happen.
At this point the dominoes seem to have stopped, but other than that your scenarios would probably make everyone happy.
LikeLike
zeek, don’t tell me that you are buying this “reviving the Big 12-lite” play will actually work. I mean, I guess it could, but from what I’ve read, aTm and OU do not want UT to have their LSN. And this “reviving” effort on UT’s part would be predicated on have their LSN. So UT either thinks it can strong arm aTm and OU into allowing them to have their LSN, or they know that this won’t happen so they are trying to tighten the screws on aTm and will blame them (like they did with Neb) if this doesn’t work out.
I guess it could all work out and they salvage the Big 12-lite. But if I’m aTm, I’d tell the to “go to hell, go to hell and die”. But that is just me. 🙂
LikeLike
Oh I agree with your sentiments completely. I think the fact that Texas is pulling this 11th hour change of heart is pretty far out there.
Especially when they’ve lined all the schools up to have BOR meetings this week to bolt for the Pac-10.
I think the Big 12 is still breathing though, but that we need more of a firm wording.
Chip Brown has tended to be right on what Texas “wants”.
But A&M can blow up the Big 12 by bolting for the SEC regardless of what Texas “wants”.
LikeLike
Bamatab – to paraphrase the original Tennessee Volunteer Davy Crockett, A&M ought to tell the Beebe and Big XII-2, “You all can go to Hell, I’m going to the SEC.”
LikeLike
alan,
more irony, as texas was founded by tennessee folks who fought and died at the alamo..
a) A&M is military so the alamo has more meaning.
b) it is in a sense, an honor thing, for standing with tennessee, for standing with texas so long ago.
LikeLike
If you think of the SEC as a football bloodbath, you could paraphrase A&M, you…, I’m staying in Texas.
LikeLike
if the SEC makes inroads into Texas and Virginia, then I think expansion severely backfired on Delany.
LikeLike
Getting Notre Dame means more to Delany than the SEC getting into Texas and Virginia.
LikeLike
zeek,
ND has said “seismic” – A) through D) fit that in my book
with MD and UVA in the Big 10, the UNC + NCST would become the straw that broke the camels back, if UNC / NC State are still there, ND could hide from the Big 10 in the ACC.
LikeLike
UNC is far less likely than Texas to end up in the SEC.
And UNC-Duke is an unbreakable pair.
Duke would never consider association with the SEC. They’d sooner join the Big Ten or petition the Ivy League.
LikeLike
And would they hide in the fragile Big East if the ACC is the subject of raids? ND likes being chased or they don’t want to be chased.
LikeLike
What a HUGE windfall of $$$$ for the five reaming B12 teams. OMYGOSH…..millions! The fab five need to hang together> Since you need 5 schools, according to NCAA riles to keep a league together, the remaining five STILL ar the B12 and STILL retain the BCS automatic bid.
Now…where do they go get schools….mountain west? Conf USA?
I say add 5 more…Utah, BYU, TCU (although TCU won’t play nice with Baylor) from mountain west and SMU, Houston, and maybe Rice (for academic reasons) form C-USA.
OR…raid Big East Cincy and Louiville, (not up to academic standards though).
To quote flounder in Animal House, “This is gonna be great!!”
LikeLike
Six votes dissolve the conference.
The NCAA requires six schools playing together for five years to recognize a conference.
The five remnants have no power if the P16 happens.
LikeLike
7 votes dissolve the conf. not 6
LikeLike
I like the Big Ten stoping at 14 with the addtion of ND, Maryland Rutgers or Missouri.
LikeLike
I’d be all for it Duff but don’t think ND moves.
LikeLike
I’m with zeek. D) is less likely than Texas to the SEC.
LikeLike
Orangebloods.com just announced that according to “sources” Texas will stay in B12, contradicting the Joe Shadd ESPN report:
LikeLike
Maybe there is internal division at UT. The Athletic dept wants Big 12 Lite with the control, BevoTV network, ability to win titles that goes with it. They are Chip Brown’s source. Maybe Schad has sources in the University administration who are more driven by academic prestige (directed westward instead of north because Bill Powers is a Cal grad). Everyone assumes a Texas strategy. Maybe it is dissonance from internal disagreement
LikeLike
ya think?
LikeLike
That would match what Purple Book Cat is saying over at the Northwestern Rivals board. (Per his source, anyway.) Although according to the source, there is still a contingent at Texas that favors the Big Ten. Having trouble believing that, though, or at least that they have enough power to choose Big Ten over Pac 16 or a “little” Big 12.
LikeLike
Someone (don’t remember where) saying Powers likes P10 and is not convinced. Chip Brown clearly has some good sources. ESPN is quoting 4 different sources saying the opposite. I’m guessing its not over until the elephant sings.
All along UT has said it prefers B12. This is giving them reasons to reconsider P10.
LikeLike
Hu Man..
go back to the chess model
SEC move – Va Tech
Big 10 move – MD (they seem ready, no matter what the “news” says – go back to my USC link a few blogs ago).
SEC move – NC State
Big 10 move – UVA
Now look at the board
Big 10 has MD & UVA
SEC has (USC – original ACC member) + NC State
this means the 4 of the ORIGINAL 7 ACC members are gone, will UNC stay on a sinking ship – so they go to the SEC.
SEC move – UNC
Big 10 move (letting SEC grab UNC) means he can sweep ND + 1 (rutgers)
game over, delany gets ND in sacrifice of UNC.
LikeLike
Dude.
There is no way in the universe that UNC ends up in the SEC.
UNC would petition the Big Ten first even if the Big Ten was at 16.
And UNC-Duke are a pair (probably with NC State included). I just don’t see how UNC or Duke ever considers the SEC.
The academics/institutional fit is horrible between UNC and the SEC.
LikeLike
Oh, and Delany would add UNC even if the Big Ten was at 16 and had to go to 18 to accomodate them.
They’re a Texas/Florida-sized deal in the mid-atlantic.
LikeLike
zeek,
adding A&M, Va Tech, and NC State to UGA, UF, Vandy gives the SEC academic “street cred”
on duke, look at Kansas, an remember that FOOTBALL drives the bus, everybody else is just along for the ride.
UNC vs UK would be the new rivals between 2 STATE schools with Big Football stadiums (Duke seats 30,000 and can not fill it) it goes back to football math, which puts duke at a HUGE disadvantage! With UNC vs UK you get a DUAL rival in FB and BB!
LikeLike
duffman, it won’t happen.
You would need the SEC to merge with the Big Ten for UNC to consider joining it.
UF/UGa/Vandy/A&M/VTech have street cred with UNC sure (although I’m not that sure about VTech considering that UNC/Duke didn’t want anyone added last time).
But there’s 9 other schools in the SEC.
UNC would join the Big North (aka Big Ten) before they step foot into the SEC.
Even if the cultural fit is worse which the Big Ten (which I think is dubious), the institutional fit is way off the radar in the SEC.
LikeLike
zeek,
the Mississippi schools are the only tier 3 and that is just the way history has gone. but after that things look much better, and UNC would wind up in the east were there are more “academic” fits.
I am not saying it will happen, I am saying “what if” and the one thing we are forgetting ….
the SEC and ACC are ESPN
the Big 10 is FOX
My guess is ESPN would rather keep UNC with ESPN (SEC) than see it go to FOX (Big 10).
LikeLike
Using US News rankings as a proxy for academic status is absurd.
Southern universities obviously get less credit in terms of academia because academic associations tend to have a distinct Northern bent like the AAU, etc.
It’s not about how many Tier 3s or whatever the SEC has.
It just doesn’t have the perception of being an academically deep conference based on other factors as well (AAU, etc.).
Adding A&M doesn’t fix that.
The perception out there is that the ACC is a bunch of highly ranked undergraduate schools.
That is decidedly not the perception of the SEC, and it never will be no matter who they add to the conference.
Sure that might be bias, but that’s how it is.
LikeLike
And I meant ranked generally, not just US News but in terms of publishing etc.
LikeLike
UNC didn’t want to expand ACC. UT is motivated very strongly by $. I agree. UT has almost no chance of going to SEC and is exponentially more likely than UNC.
LikeLike
NC State dosn’t go anywhere because of the same politics that Texas has. The NC schools are in the ACC until it falls apart.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the only school I could see the SEC realistically poaching from the ACC is Clemson.
VT might be interested, but I think the VA legislature would reflexively say “no” after all the strings they pulled to get them into the ACC.
LikeLike
PSUG,
my point! NCST and UNC are pairs so they wind up in SEC.
with VT in SEC, UVA is no longer a pair and can go to Big 10 with MD.
LikeLike
More likely UNC tells NCState to shut up and go back to the ACC than both get drug to the SEC by NCState.
LikeLike
duffman, I don’t see the SEC taking one school from the west and three schools from the east. I mean I guess they could, but they would have to move Vandy over to the SEC West. Also, I don’t think that the SEC would want to add two schools from the same North Carolina market. If UNC demanded the SEC to take someone, I think the SEC would try for Duke before it would NCST. I think instead that if the SEC got aTm, VT, UNC (again if); they might go after Mizzou since Mizzou would be expanding their footprint Northwest and would be adding the STL and possibly KC tv markets.
LikeLike
But that’s the thing…I really think the SEC is very limited in its options and is going to have to be more of a “beggar” than a “chooser” if they are serious about getting to 16.
The NC schools are pretty much tied together, I mean its taking the possible disbanding of the Big12 for the SEC to even have a shot at TAMU. I think the same is going to hold true for the ACC and I simply don’t see the same issues which could cause the ACC to fall apart like the Big12 seems to be doing.
As I’ve said before, Clemson I could see. Maybe VT, but again VA politics might tell them “not a chance in hell” due to the strings that needed pulling to get them into the ACC. Other northern/eastern ACC schools I feel are either equally tied to the “Tobacco Road” contingent or so far out that they simply would be considered (MD/BC).
Looking west, Texas and OK seem to be tied at the hip and determined to go to the Pac, if they swap conferences. Kansas & Mizzou are free floating (if the Big12 does disband) but one might get snatched by the Pac and there’s still a chance the BigTen might grab Mizzou. TAMU would be a grand slam for the SEC admittedly.
Looking north, you have WVU, a school that I think would be perfect in the SEC actually, but one that they might not want due to demographics, or picking form Cinci, Louisville, etc. There has been some success from those programs, but are they “SEC quality” and again from a markets perspective will probably only dilute the SEC payouts, not enhance them.
Looking south you really only have FSU and Miami…one school (Miami) who I think flat out refuses to join the SEC and one (FSU) that I think feels the “SEC ship” has sailed as far as desire to join that conference.
Between everything could the SEC move to 14 or 16? Sure, but I have to believe (most of) these additions are going to hurt, rather than enhance, the SEC brand (in the form of per school payouts).
LikeLike
PSUGuy,
I’ll have to disagree with you on the SEC’s options. I think that in the West, aTm is a likely option as well as Mizzou. I think that with the Big 10 only taking Nebraska and leaving Mizzou to fend for itself, if the SEC offered them they would jump at the chance. I think that Mizzou honestly thought that they would get an invite from the Big 10. And now that they Big 12 is imploding, they are scrambling and doing everything they can to try and salvage it (along with the remaining 4 or 5 schools that would be left out if the others go to the Pac 10) because they did not expect to be in this situation. Even if a SEC offer caused the Big 10 to make an offer, would Mizzou be willing to forgive the Big 10 for leaving them hanging? Maybe, but it’s far from a sure thing.
In the East, I think that the SEC has two sets of options. The first option is what I feel is the SEC’s backup plan. If they can’t get a VT or UNC then they go for the schools already in their footprint (FSU, GT, and Clemson). As I’ve stated on this blog before, I truely believe that FSU was Slive’s original partner with aTm, but their neigboring schools put that to a halt for recruiting reasons. I think that Slive has reevaluated his plan and now would prefer to get schools outside of the SEC’s current footprint. But if we can’t get a VT or UNC, then I still believe that FSU and Clemson would definitely jump, and GT might as well, although they may be a little less likely.
So now the first option for the East is to try for the schools in new markets. Now you stated that you don’t think that VT or UNC would be as willing to jump to the SEC because the ACC isn’t in the same position as the Big 12. Well what if the SEC is forced to go after FSU, Clemson, and GT? And what if the Big 10 decides to go after Maryland and Virginia? If you think that UNC and VT would want to be left in a conference that has to substitute Big East schools for those schools, then I think you are crazy. VT and UNC do not want to be in Mizzou’s or Kansas’s (if they don’t get a Pac 10 invite)shoes. I think we both can agree on that.
For anyone to believe that the SEC doesn’t currently have options, I think that they are truely mistaken. The SEC is the premier football conference out there (UT is finding that out the hard way). Plus, if they add aTm and possibly a Mizzou, then they can offer a much better looking academic conference for VT and UNC once they join.
Again, this is just my honest opinion from a SEC point of view..
LikeLike
VaTech and FSU are very gettable for the SEC.
FSU only went to the ACC over the SEC because of Bowden, etc., not because of academics.
VaTech is the same as A&M and would probably prefer to be in the SEC even though the ACC is a better fit geographically.
Clemson, GaTech, Miami are much harder to grab because they like the academic perception of the ACC.
But, if VaTech and FSU bolt for the SEC, that puts Clemson at least in play because the athletic quality of the ACC starts to drop dramatically in terms of football.
Let’s not discuss UNC anymore, that one is a waste of time.
UNC and Duke (and NC State) are going to end up in the same conference no matter what happens. It won’t be the SEC.
The SEC has plenty of options.
LikeLike
zeek, I very seriously doubt that Clemson would factor in academics when trying to decide if they want to come to the SEC. From everything I’ve ever heard or read from their fanbase, they already see themselves as more of an SEC team than an ACC team. Now GT and Miami on the other hand might factor academics into the decision.
LikeLike
Bamatab, I include what I think the administrators think and why they’re in the ACC.
VaTech and FSU are only in the ACC because of athletics. Yes, they can claim to be associating with a higher rated group of academics, but that’s just window dressing.
GaTech and Miami tend to be the opposite in that their administrators love being associated with UNC/UVA/Duke/Md, but they may be obtained if the athletics (read football) gets gutted due to a loss of FSU/VaTech.
Clemson is a mix of both. I do tend to agree that Clemson is obtainable if FSU/VaTech are in play since that starts to sink the football/athletic quality of the conference.
I don’t think it’s anywhere near the slam dunk that the other two are.
Although, the SEC is the only possible alternative for Clemson unlike the others which may be able to all jump to the Big Ten if they really have to…
So that might figure into their calculations and they may be almost as willing to jump as FSU and VaTech.
Regardless, the rest of my argument stands. I made the same argument with duffman below about what schools are most likely to jump when/why.
LikeLike
Wouldn’t divisions be difficult if it was 2E and 2W? AL/TN, AU/GA would be difficult. If you keep those every year, you may never play the other schools in the East. Does AL still care that much about MS and MS St.(I’m presuming you’re a Bama fan)?
I just think the SEC would have difficulty approving anything more than 14 unless there were 4 viable candidates in the west.
LikeLike
Not arguing too much on any specific point you make. Only making the simple argument that there are actually some fairly hard borders that the SEC runs into (BigTen, heart of ACC) the limit its expansion options.
Could they expand? Sure. The problem is do the additions help or hurt the SEC brand and its per school payout.
Even if they get GT (which I highly doubt)does it add $17+ million? Clemson? Mizzou?
The SEC has built its image around “the Brand” and that brand, as you said, is “the preminent college football conference in America”. It already has enough 2nd tier programs (good teams that get decent ratings, but only really have regional draw), at least in my opinion.
Adding more of the same, without adding national brands is the problem I think Slive & Co. are facing right now and are trying to figure out will that really increase the SEC payout or decrease it?
LikeLike
D) won’t happen because UNC has no interest whatsoever in the SEC; moreover, it would mean the SEC expanded by three in the east, one in the west. Does Vanderbilt go west to even out the divisions? Don’t see it. UNC also has closer ties to Duke than it does to NCSU.
I think State could wind up in the SEC — NCSU needs something to revive its rather morose fan base — and now that Missouri is almost certainly off the Big Ten table, the SEC could probably pick it up. Both State and Mizzou would be “buy low” options for the SEC. (It would be sort of a historical irony for N.C. State, insomuch as its hiring of Everett Case and its subsequent elevation into a basketball power was done because it was then a weakling in football, poor cousins to UNC and Duke. Now, State would use football as a way to escape the gigantic blue basketball shadows at the other legs of the Research Triangle.)
LikeLike
I agree on everything except UNC to the SEC. That has virtually no chance of happening. The NC schools are as tied together as the Texas schools, so if UT can head to the Pac16 while TAMU joins the SEC, UNC can certainly go to the Big20 while NCSU joins the SEC.
How I finally see it shake out:
Big10 adds Maryland, Virginia, UNC, Duke, GTech, & Miami(/FSU). If ND decides to play along, they enter with Rutgers to form a Big20 (a Big18 is workable as well if they don’t). Heck, Big10 could take both Miami & FSU along with ND instead of Rutgers. Both FSU & Miami will become AAU members fairly soon.
SEC addes TAMU, VTech, NCSU, and either FSU (if they want the brand name) or Mizzou (if they want the new territory) to go to 16.
Pac16 picks up either Mizzou or Kansas/Utah.
BE would gladly add Clemson (and FSU/Miami if available). WFU will have to beg to enter the BE. Maybe BC as well (because of the animosity from last time).
The Rose Bowl conferences have a presence in every region of the US except the poor parts of the SEC. The SEC is in all parts of the south, and thus the richest recruiting regions in the country.
Plus1 will feature ose Bowl winner vs. SEC/other winner in the national championship game.
LikeLike
Now up to aTm to decide. I don’t think Texas would committ to B12 w/out aTm, so we’ll see.
LikeLike
New Big Ten logo is out.
LikeLike
very nice
LikeLike
Nice graphic but it makes one look confused. back to the drawing board.
LikeLike
B12 to stay together, according to Rivals.com:
http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1094038
LikeLike
As suspected, this is basically a negotiating tactic. What it probably is primarily about:
# Key hangup for UT in move to P10 is its desire for a Longhorn Network. It doesn’t want to give that up. about 1 hour ago via web
LikeLike
Well the question now is how badly are Stanford/Cal willing to get rolled over to accommodate Texas?
I mean taking OSU/Tech on is one thing. But now, Texas gets to keep its own local media rights and there’s no Pac-10 Network?
Yeah USC has been hit by a nuke, so the Pac-10 will obviously be hurting over the next couple of years. But just how much are they willing to give to Texas?
Pretty soon, Texas will be running it…
LikeLike
Who did that song “it is the end of the world as we know it!” ? I think this is subliminally playing at the Pac 10 offices.
LikeLike
We all know how well the last marriage of convenience worked out.
Texas insisting on the LSN probably drives a stake through the heart of the Pac 10 deal, so putting it out there means that is what Texas wants to do. This has been the view from my side of the fence from the beginning, that the Pac 10 offer was a poorly calibrated bluff. Texas didn’t understand how much animosity they’ve created around the conference. A&M to the SEC may have finally opened their eyes, and now they’re just buying time because they’re in scramble mode.
LikeLike
Cornwhiner fairy tales.
LikeLike
Chip Brown is proving them to be more truth than myth.
LikeLike
Hilarious!
Aren’t you supposed to be blaming / hating on A&M this week. Then OU is penciled in for next week.
At some point if everyone runs away from you…. the problem is still them.
By July 1, Nebraska and Texas are likely in the same Big Ten division, so it doesn’t really matter.
LikeLike
Aren’t you supposed to be blaming / hating on A&M this week.
I’ve been posting support for aTm going to the SEC. That’s what I want.
LikeLike
“C-USA Is Ready To Dine on Delicious Big 12 Leftovers”
http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/the_sporting_blog/entry/view/68644/east_carolina_ad_says_c-usa_is_ready_to_dine_on_delicious_big_12_leftovers
Haven’t read the article, but I lol’ed at the headline
LikeLike
thats got to thrill Missouri and their Big 12 North friends.
LikeLike
Is there anybody reading this blog with strong ACC insider views like Bama and Alan (for the SEC) or FLP (for ND) that can give us a true read on the ACC? vincent where are you, and is there anybody else?
LikeLike
Any rumor of Maryland/UVA/UNC/Duke going anywhere near the SEC is absurd.
The true read on the ACC is that VaTech is probably the most willing to make the jump. Bamatab is right that culturally/instituional fit-wise, VaTech makes the most sense in the SEC, especially with how similar it is to Texas A&M. But PSUGuy is right that VaTech may not make the jump after the political capital expended to get into the ACC. And geography/culture/institutional fit work for VaTech in the ACC well enough.
The rest of the ACC sees the ACC as having much higher ranked undergraduate schools as well as some research intensive universities.
Clemson, Miami, GaTech may not be willing to make the jump if it means a downgrade in academic perception.
Yes, they may make the jump based on athletic fit, but of all of the ACC schools, the most likely to jump is VaTech followed by FSU.
So the list of jumpers in terms of how likely they are to jump is:
Most likely to jump if offer on table (but other factors such as Va. politics/UF not wanting another Florida school may get in the way):
1) VaTech
2) FSU
May jump if offer on table due to athletic fit, but academic perception hurts likelihood:
3) Clemson
4) GaTech
5) Miami
Not likely to jump (because of staying with other ACC schools):
6) NC State
Won’t go near the SEC (some obviously not worth inviting since they don’t add anything to SEC):
7) UNC
8) UVA
9) Maryland
10) Boston College
11) Duke
12) Wake Forest
LikeLike
zeek,
are you an ACC grad / undergrad / alum?
if so what school(s)?
LikeLike
Not an ACC grad.
LikeLike
zeek,
while i like your posts, I was trying to use this thread to get input they way i have with alan, flp, bama, and others who have a closer feel to their respective groups.
thanks
LikeLike
Well, I attended schools that see themselves in the same league academically as those institutions.
They all think differently.
Just because Vandy is in the SEC, doesn’t mean UNC is a fit.
We have to weigh how each school measures academics versus athletics in the realm of a conference as well as perception.
LikeLike
zeek,
“Well, I attended schools that see themselves in the same league academically as those institutions.”
sorta like that Ad that went ” I am not a doctor, but I played one on TV”
I said from the beginning you have to think like your enemy, not like you want him to think. when you do that, you have already lost.
I am trying to think like the enemy, so as to set a line of defense. Simple as that, I humbly suggest you do the same.
LikeLike
Duffman, read all of the replies to my argument. The ACC grads agree with my characterization of the situation.
We need to stick to what makes sense.
UNC and co. are not desperate to keep up with the Big Ten/SEC as the Pac-10 is. They’re going to continue to act in a manner similar to the Big Ten’s expansion push which requires academics to be weighed when any expansion scenario comes up.
LikeLike
One additional note on VTech. It wasn’t that much political capital expended. UVA simply withheld a ‘yes’ vote for expansion until Syracuse was dropped for VTech, due to the governor’s concerns over VTech being in the Big East and it being hurt by expansion. Therefore I’d imagine that VTech COULD in fact join the SEC without a big deal, because the primary concern was VTech finding a good home, and the ACC or SEC provide that. Now, if VTech left, the ACC would swiftly invite Syracuse, as was the plan nearly 10 years ago.
LikeLike
True, and while I don’t think it affects my list; I do agree that VaTech can jump and be replaced by Syracuse, which would leave the ACC feeling happy.
And the Big Ten might be happy because we could grab Rutgers etc.
LikeLike
zeek pretty much hit on the ACC concerns. Miami’s AD has come out and stated they aren’t leaving the ACC.
VT seems the most likely, but they have immersed themselves in the ACC. They have a joint vetrinary medicine school with Maryland started and a joint biomedical engineering program with Wake Forest’s medical school after joining the ACC. It would be surprising to see VT jump ship after working for over 50 years to get into the ACC and working on academic collaborations as well. I also wonder about the political angle after UVA was pressured to vote for VT during the ACC expansion in 2003.
Of course, this is all coming from a Wake Forest alumnus who realizes Wake will be the last school holding the ACC banner if the whole thing were to blow up. But I don’t think that’s likely.
LikeLike
As I stated, I only see VaTech and FSU being in play because “originally” they joined the ACC as a marriage of athletics convenience.
VaTech is still only a few years into its time in the ACC, so we have to see how gettable they are.
You bring up some interesting information worth considering on their academic collaboration with other ACC schools.
That might dampen the enthusiasm among administrators for a jump to the SEC.
We need more information like that to help shape the discussion.
LikeLike
As to your concerns about Wake Forest being the last to hold the banner; you’d need a Big Ten-ACC merger for that to even really be a possibility.
UNC enjoys its fiefdom, and the Big Ten isn’t likely to go to 20 any time in the next couple decades, so it won’t happen.
16 and stopping with Notre Dame is the optimal scenario…
LikeLike
Virginia Tech’s joint veterinary school with Maryland wouldn’t be altered if they were in different athletic conferences. I believe Iowa State hosts a veterinary program with South Dakota, and they certainly have no athletic ties aside from the USD Coyotes or SDSU Jackrabbits making occasional tries to Ames for non-conference games.
Athletically, the ties between Tech and UVa are nowhere as strong as those between UNC and NCSU or OU and Okie State. Heck, as late as the 1960s Tech’s archrival was Virginia Military Institute (they would close the football season against each other in Roanoke).
LikeLike
A good point, and Nebraska specifically mentioned in their press conference that switching to the Big Ten/CIC would not harm their joint research programs with Iowa State (I think they had some significant research ties for ag/med)…
LikeLike
duffman, I’m not a true ACC insider (I don’t have connections within the offices). I am a transplant here from Michigan for graduate school at UVa. Zeek is spot on though on the culture and what schools would go to the SEC. Although, I think GaTech would be love to join the Big Ten over SEC. The ACC’s core, NC schools, UVa and Maryland, is a strong group. The two schools who I think are least tied to the ACC are BC and VT. BC with its location, and VT’s culture.
As a response to your earlier comment to chess, I am saying think like a university president. Research and donations are more important than athletics. Those two criteria are how top presidents are judged.
LikeLike
Hu Man,
agreed, but after 80% – 90% of the terp site (like 91 pages!) looked like they were tired of the (A)ll (C)arolina (C)onference they were happy to move away from the ACC. I was surprised as the Terps were an ACC founder, yet they are happy to go.
Maybe the most telling part of this round of realignment, is exposing fractures in the “happy conference” that we have all though for years. Think of history.
The Big 10 and SEC have long history, the ACC is a “modern” conference compared to them. I have made this point often, and see this is based on time together. If A&M goes to the SEC it goes “home” to the old SIAA and SoCon roots that gave the SEC and ACC life. People on this blog remember when Ga Tech was SEC and USC was ACC. They remember a Pac 5,6,7,8 & a SWC & a Big 8. I am saying while no matter how remote, I am saying it IS possible.
LikeLike
I’m an ACC school grad, but I was there before the ACC football expansion. Back then, the school was truly a basketball conference. Some of that identity was lost during the football expansion. However, it has still retained it. Obviously, when you think of the ACC you think of basketball first. That was true even when FSU was dominating the football scnene and was a true national power.
That is why I think in hindsight, UNC/Duke probably wish they had voted for Syracuse. As a bball school, Syr would have allowed the ACC to maintain that identity. However, the expansion cost the ACC its home and home schedule with each team.
All that being said, that ship has sailed and football is clearly the driving force behind any move.
To some extent UVA/UNC could culturly fit into the SEC. They are both southern schools (though UVA has a huge population from MD/NY/NY) with southern traditions. However, I wonder how UNC would feel about being in the same conference as KY? For both schools, they are (or consider themselves) top 5 public schools. So, I think from that perspective it just would not work. Plus, the ACC has a fairly long history together. So did the Big 8 to some degree. But the minute they expanded to the B12 and separated OK from the rest – that cohesiveness fell apart. I still think the ACC maintains that cohesiveness – though it isn’t as strong as it used to be.
Va Tech and Clemson are the schools that would best fit in with the SEC, with Va Tech having the advantage of being in VA in which there is not currently a school and having a football program in the present and not one in the past.
The ACC is never going to be as strong as the SEC or B10, but there is room and a need for another “power conference,” and probably one on east coast.
LikeLike
SIAP: Looks like the Texas statehouse politics are just getting started. If we thought this was a circus now wait till Wednesday.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/06/13/expansion.sunday/index.html
Please tell me the Texas statehouse broadcasts their hearings over the web…this could be great entertainment. I think we may now know why we have Texas trying to shift as much blame as possible to A&M. Apparently all the small schools will have representatives here as well and the guy running things is an SMU guy. Their alums couldn’t possibly want their pound of flesh for what happened 15 years ago could they…nah, lol. Is the PAC sure they really want this drama in this conference? At this point I’m so glad CU is putting this crap behind us, even if we pay the penalty to get out and don’t make as much if Texas doesn’t come.
If Texas truly believes keeping the band together is viable this may be Texas’s way of cutting down A&M’s leverage to make them give up the LSN if they stay.
LikeLike
SuperD,
if they do lets get a link as this blog would draw HUGE ratings!
LikeLike
As I continue to aver, Texas has too many D1A teams (10->12). Each of them wanting a piece of this. SMU is arguably the #9 in the football order, yet they want revenge.
LikeLike
The only grouping that gives Texas their LSN is a Texas Conference. Or the SEC. And with the SEC, it’s the leavings that get on the LSN, if they could ever get past the academic/athletic horror of it all in the first place.
LikeLike
I’m not sure academics is the only reason why Texas doesn’t want the SEC. Mack knows that conference is a meat grinder and I don’t think they want to go to a conference with that many alpha dogs.
LikeLike
This “SEC is so difficult Texas doesn’t want to go” needs to stop. The SEC is marginally on top right now. They won’t be forever. I doubt Texas is afraid of Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Auburn, South Carolina, LSU, Kentucky, or even Georgia and Tennessee. They may consider Alabama and Florida peers.
LikeLike
“This “SEC is so difficult Texas doesn’t want to go” needs to stop.”
Why then is it as easy to find as the nearest Texas message board? Not in so many words, but it’s there.
LikeLike
The SEC is the Dolly Parton of top-heavy conferences. Even more so than the Big Ten.
LikeLike
“This “SEC is so difficult Texas doesn’t want to go” needs to stop”
If you’ve read comments on just about any story about A&M going to the SEC, you’ll see lots of UT and TT fans saying that A&M will get run over by the competition there.
The underlying message is crystal clear: they don’t think the Big 12 is as competitive as the SEC. That may not be true, but there are a large numbers of fans in Texas evidently believe it.
Of course, the idea that A&M shouldn’t search out a conference with the highest level of competition is silly.
LikeLike
@m(Ag): “If you’ve read comments on just about any story about A&M going to the SEC, you’ll see lots of UT and TT fans saying that A&M will get run over by the competition there.
The underlying message is crystal clear: they don’t think the Big 12 is as competitive as the SEC. ”
I think the underlying message is clear. aTm would get run over in the SEC because they have fallen to the #5 program in the B12S. UT and TT fans are slamming the Aggies much more than they are praising the SEC.
LikeLike
I disagree—the general point they make is “How foolish A&M would be to go there, they would just be run over”.
Which imply they would not get run over in the Pac 16.
LikeLike
That merely implies that the SEC is somewhat herder than the P10. Not that Texas is afraid of it. Texas would slot in even with Bama in the west. The only program the Aggies would be favored over would be Miss State.
LikeLike
The academic thing is real for the academics, the athletic challenge is real for Mack Brown and the athletic department. Texas is not going to waltz into the SEC championship game in Atlanta, and they know it. A&M can afford to go to the SEC, because it doesn’t really matter what conference for them at this point, they’re trying to build towards relevance. Texas has a great deal to lose in that department, the fan support is not automatic through the down times, the gear sales to every low pants teenage frontrunner out there disappears in favor of the next perceived winner, autorecruiting takes a hit proportional to SEC hits in the loss column added, etc.
And Texas will never sniff running the SEC show.
LikeLike
Bingo! Super D, we have a winner. The UTx academics argument has always been a red herring. In every scenario UTx has drawn up, its beat OU and get into a BCS game. Don’t any of you wonder why the Big Ten is never mentioned? The SEC and the Big Ten are too hard.
LikeLike
alan,
I agree!!
in the west UT has USC and OU to worry about. The Big 10 (with Nebraska) and the SEC are where the real football will be played with this current scenario.
It is why I keep saying this whole thing is a chess match between delany and slive all along….
LikeLike
Academics is the primary reason. The “you’re judged by who you associate with” really applies to university presidents (per Frank-“think like a university president”)
Academic standards for athletes is another issue. Doing it Nebraska’s way was a non-starter for UT and Tom Osborne has never gotten over that. UT and the B10, P10 and almost all remaining B12 schools share common values on that. SEC doesn’t.
If Mack Brown brought in players who committed armed robbery, he would have a hard time holding on to his job. Lane Kiffin was worshipped at Tennessee until the day he left for USC.
It can be debated whether its really true or not, but the perception is that the cheating in the SEC in recruiting is vastly worse than anywhere else. For UT, been there, done that. For those who don’t remember or haven’t read it, all SWC schools except Rice and Arkansas got on probation in the closing years. SMU, TCU and A&M all got caught paying their players.
LikeLike
here;s the link for the Texas House Committee on Higher Education video stream:
http://www.house.state.tx.us/media/weekly.php
LikeLike
Apparently all the small schools will have representatives here as well and the guy running things is an SMU guy.
Undergrad at OK Christian U., law degree from SMU. Dan Branch is a rare bright spot, a poltician who is both clean and effective. Wed’s hearing may turn into a circus, but it won’t be because of Dan Branch.
LikeLike
I think the Big Ten Network should broadcast the circus since the LSN obviously is unable to at this time.
LikeLike
Found this to be pretty funny:
So TAMU’s Indepedence Bowl level fball program may hold the key to whether KU’s national title hoops program ends up in Pac10 or Mtn West
From Stewart Mandel with Sports Illustrated Twitter, from Sunday Night.
LikeLike
If Texas, et al go to Pac10, and aTm goes to SEC, then “sources” say Kansas has edge on Utah.
New B12: Uh, anybody home?
Mizzou – maybe Big 10 as 16th team, maybe SEC with aTm. Will be a long, long, long wait.
K-state, I-state, Baylor – C-USA or Mountain West…hmm.
LikeLike
as the Big 12 loses members the last conference meeting when its down to Baylor and Iowa State
LikeLike
Chip Brown is flip-flopping —
Quote: My sources say Texas is committed to coming to the table with the 10 remaining B12 schools to see if there’s consensus for the Beebe plan.
So they are about to blue-falcon their partners-in-crime. I would imagine Oklahoma is not too pleased with this development. Texas A&M may make them pay out of the nose for this to see how much they want to be in the Big12.
Of course it could all be manueverings by Texas to shift the blame for the demise of the Big12 on someone else than themselves (typical). Of course news reports for the last two days on ESPN have been “Immenent departure to the PAC10 by Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State.”
LikeLike
Chip was interesting two weeks ago, but seeing right through his tweets makes them laughable.
He is the Texas version of Joseph Goebbels…
1)Completely out of touch with reality
2)Nothing is ever UT’s fault
3)Everyone else is too blame
4)Promote the solution that makes Texas look the best and make them the most money.
I hope like hell that A&M and OU tell UT to stuff it. Why should these other schools “do as they are told” and bow down to UT’s whims. Texas keeps spinning that Nebraska left and killed the Big 12, but if Texas would have given up or shared the LSN (or stopped blocking a Big 12 network, or worked together with the other schools in conference), Nebraska would have stayed. It’s a disfunctional relationship. A&M and OU have already stated that they would not stick around for a Texas with a LSN that only UT profits from and controls. Baylor and Iowa State may have no other choice, but every school with a choice will leave that as fast as possible.
All for one, and all for one again. Screw that.
LikeLike
How about Baghdad Bob instead.
LikeLike
Beebe has that comparison locked up
LikeLike
Bagdad Bob works just as well.
Who’s the propaganda minister for North Korea? Maybe they could hire Chip?
LikeLike
How is that any different than your twisting every post into an anti-TX rant (other than he has sources and did get one major scoop?)
We get it, TX ate your homework.
LikeLike
Through most of this process I was for Texas. I still think that this is all a power play to shake themselves loose from the Big 12 baggage and lay blame on everyone else, so they end up in the Big 10.
Overall, I don’t give a damn about Texas or where they end up. Their behavior, and Chip Browns propaganda, is obvious to everyone….. except the UT fans.
LikeLike
Yep – and if you believe Joe Schad, he’s reporting that Texas will be able to keep the TLN alive and well in the Pac 10, something the Big 10 just won’t do….
I am still finding it hard to believe that all members of the Pac 10 will vote this way and allow all four teams (Texas, Tech, Oklahoma and Okie State) in…I still believe that it’s all a smokescreen for UT to get into the Big 10, without Tech and the other baggage.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5284375
LikeLike
@Russ: Aren’t you talking out of both sides of your mouth? If the Big 10 will never allow then to keep the TLN alive (and this is their goal), then why are they doing all of this just to get into the B10? Am I missing someting?
LikeLike
So you believe Pearlman’s spin????
He knew giving LSN up was a non-starter and probably wouldn’t have stayed if they did. B10 had a better deal for Nebraska no matter what and he wisely took it.
LikeLike
Does Texas really care that much about blame? Or r they trying to get the Pac 10 to budge on something?
LikeLike
If UT is as arrogant as everyone says, Powers, et. al. wouldn’t care about blame. After all, We’re Texas!
Maybe they are really just trying to figure out the best deal for the next 30 years in a one week period?
Does it seem logical to anyone for the schools to call a time out? Hey, lets think about this for 30 days. I think Scott is wisely pushing it quickly before alternatives, road blocks and second thoughts pop up.
LikeLike
Does anyone know whats going on with Purple Book Cat over @ Wildcat report and the “Change of Heart”?
LikeLike
no. he’s been silent on the topic. apparently he is still posting on the premium board but I haven’t heard mention of any expansion related post since the Change of Heart post.
LikeLike
I think the Big Ten has gotten what it wanted.
Now we just have to see if Texas/A&M can come to some kind of agreement or whether more dominoes start falling.
LikeLike
And by that I mean that expansion may be on ice if the Big 12 is saved.
No reason why we can’t integrate Nebraska and then revisit expansion in 2014-2015 before TV contract negotiations…
That would also let Nebraska have time to become a fully equal financial partner, so it is easy to add new schools and start them with their own buy in formulas.
LikeLike
This stuff at Texas has all the hallmarks of Texas negotiating with itself. I think it is becoming clear the University administration wants to go where the academics are improved and the Athletic Dept wants to go where they think they’ll do best and each side is trying to make the other’s politically impossible. That’s likely why the Pac Ten took the lead over the Big Ten (besides Powers personal connection): because it throws a big bone to the athletic dept that the Big Ten does not. Likewise, the Athletic dept is trying to counter that by making the Big 12 look financially better and getting the politicos involved (why should we leave and look like the bad guys when we get great money anyway and control things)? It’s not a negotiating strategy to play suitors off against one another or give Texas a scapegoat. It’s about winning an internal power struggle.
Right now the balance must be tipping to the Athletic department which is why we had the tweet that a decision is likely to be taken Tuesday and the legislature was a non-factor (i.e., Powers needs to move quickly).
Powers can’t take Texas to the Pac Ten politically if it looks like he is harming Texas football even if it is better in the long run for the University.
(of course, it could also be designed to look like an internal power struggle to create negotiation leverage but I am more inclined to think it is a real struggle – in the end, it probably doesn’t matter).
If this is the case, is there any way the Big Ten could “save the day”? In other words, provide the academic upside and “preserve Texas football”? That would require A&M going to the SEC regardless.But it likely requires more. I agree with the proposition the the Big Ten culturally requires equality. Makes it difficult to concieve oif what else might be offered. (Texas can still play Oklahoma regardless.)
LikeLike
Does anyone know whats going on with Purple Book Cat over @ Wildcat report and the “Change of Heart”?
A poster over there has suggested elsewhere that he got a ‘cease and desist’ message.
And then there is this, from someone with access to the paid side. Excerpts:
http://northwestern.rivals.com/showmsg.asp?fid=57&tid=144057682&mid=144057682&sid=901&style=2
Big10 also looking at a Florida Team
“…I’m interested in knowing which florida team is being looked at…
…At any rate, don’t look for the Big10 to add any midwest schools other than Notre Dame. Missouri may squeek in if all of the above falters and if the Big10 makes a quick move. Texas would be on my dream team along with A&M but I think those options are off the table since the Big10 didn’t give Texas the package it wanted [only play 7 big10 games a year]. At any rate, these conferences are in a feeding frenzy and it’s going to be a game of the last man standing. Some conferences are going to go away is my bet. Disclaimer: all of the above should be taken as opinion only and thirdhand hearsay.”
LikeLike
There’s only two Florida teams that could be looked at, UF and Miami.
But why in the world do we want to turn Miami into another Boston College. Where would the rivalries be (although I guess Nebraska and Notre Dame could have good rivalries with Miami), but still, I’m just not seeing this as being a good thing in the long term.
As much as South Florida is like a northern transplant, Miami is a much smaller school than the Big Ten universities; it’s Notre Dame-sized. Unless Miami is joining with Notre Dame, I don’t see it…
And as for University of Florida, sure it’s another University of Texas (top notch academics/athletics, whatever you want), but why in the world would they leave the SEC…
LikeLike
The “change of heart” was a change in heart on the part of the Big Ten regarding PBC’s leaking of information. Apparently, according to PBC, in the past he was given approval to post information regarding the Big Ten’s expansion plans and where they were in the process. However, a few days ago, he received a “cease and desist” letter from the Big Ten, via e-mail.
LikeLike
See my post above…
LikeLike
Frank, I’m afraid you’re dating yourself here writing “Pitt used to be considered Penn State’s equal not all that long ago”. Would you believe it has been thirty plus years and then only for a short period in the late 70s/early 80s? Joe Paterno holds a 23-7-1 record against Pitt.
LikeLike
No matter.
Take TV sets out of the equation. Who is a better candidate?
LikeLike
Tell me if you see a resemblance in these two pictures?
And to all of the UT fans on this bored, I’m kidding. Well I’m kind of kidding, UT is kind of looking somewhat douchey right now.
LikeLike
+2 on that one. Sending to all my neighbors here in Austin, Tx
LikeLike
bama,
WOW!!
if A&M is SEC bound, It will be the new A&M flag at every SEC game on National TV.
LikeLike
Haven’t looked at it yet. Let me guess… it’s a picture of the Longhorn photo compared to a picture of female anatomy. Let’s see how predictable this is…
LikeLike
Ding ding ding!
I think everyone’s seen that one, Bamatab, and I’ve hardly ever even set foot in a Big 12 state.
LikeLike
Sorry Michael, I’m not up on me Big 12 trash talking/posting. You have to admit though that it fits the recent developements.
LikeLike
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/06/13/expansion.sunday/index.html
The Big Ten is apparently not even on the politicos’ radar. That’s pretty objective evidence about what is and isn’t an option.
[College football — and college athletics in general — will get the full attention of the higher education committee of the Texas House of Representatives on Wednesday morning. That meeting, thanks to a five-day public-notice law, will come a day after the Texas and Texas Tech boards of regents meet to discuss whether their respective schools should stay in the Big 12 or leave for the Pac-10. While some believe the regents will vote on moves Tuesday, Branch, the chair of the higher education committee, believes the schools will wait until after Wednesday’s hearing.
“To make a final decision before Wednesday,” Branch said, “would not be wise.”
Branch said the chief executives of Texas (Bill Powers), Texas A&M (R. Bowen Loftin) and Texas Tech (Guy Bailey) already have accepted their invitations to testify before the committee. Branch also hopes to have representatives from Baylor, Rice, Southern Methodist, TCU, Houston, North Texas and UTEP. Branch also has invited several economists as well as the commissioners of the Pac-10, SEC, Big 12, Mountain West and Conference USA.]
LikeLike
So if Texas “saves” the big 12 I think we will see some name changes.
University of TX at Iowa State
University of TX at Kansas
University of TX at Kansas State
University of TX at Oklahoma State
University of You’re my Bitch at Oklahoma
Baylor – cause even UT doesn’t want-em
LikeLike
Husker,
a) welcome to the conference
b) maybe the best post yet!
LikeLike
a) Thank you – Looking forward to 2011
b) It just seemed obvious, they would be completely selling thier souls to UT to keep the conference together so you might as well just go with it all the way.
LikeLike
I think we’re all looking forward to an infusion of new blood from Nebraska. We do tend to have a somewhat staid league, although it does work.
Hopefully, Nebraska can shake things up and kick some schools in the rear and get their football programs gunning (I’m looking at you Michigan).
LikeLike
Nebraska also has to be, well, NEBRASKA. We lose some strength because Michigan is down now 3 years. I hope for Michigan’s sake that Rich Rod is the man and they are not looking again after next year. Things were way too easy down at LSU for Les Miles to part. Or perhaps is Jim Harbough the future?
LikeLike
I have a couple of question about the Big 12.
Why isn’t the league considering adding BYU and/or USF? BYU would bring superior TV ratings to Colorado’s and thus a greater bump in TV revenue than a Big 12 w/ Colorado. USF is by no means a solid replacement for Nebraska, but with the Bulls, the Big 12 could take away the Big East’s ABC appearances on Saturdays in recruit-rich, population-growing Tampa, and perhaps Orlando.
Basically, would an addition of BYU and/or USF make the Big 12 better off than it would as a 10-team league?
Secondly, does the Big 12 have any chance at survival at all if A&M hightails to the SEC?
LikeLike
step 1 survive
step 2 breath again
step 3 Iowa State and Missouri get clean underwear
step 4 consider future options
LikeLike
Chip Brown on twitter
Texas stands to make between $20 mil and $25 mil per yr under a proposed new TV pkg presented by Dan Beebe, plus UT’s own network.
LikeLike
hank,
but notice, it does not say what the “siblings” will earn. Still UT centric to the end….
LikeLike
trust me I noticed.
I also hope someone is checking Dan’s math.
LikeLike
While this is all nice in theory, I have to wonder how firm Beebe’s numbers are.
Losing Nebraska/Colorado means you also lose the Big 12 CCG.
Is ESPN really willing to bid up the Big 12-2 contract like Fox bid up the ACC contract?
Is Fox not going to bargain very hard against the Big 12 without the Colorado markets in the footprint (even if no one was watching apparently) and Nebraska which was the only national football brand north of Oklahoma, and probably had better pull on the coasts than Oklahoma and A&M…?
Yes, it may all come together, but these numbers seem highly optimistic for a league that just lost a big market (in theory) and a national brand…
LikeLike
Well, we can see how this theory plays out. BTW, when does B10’s contract with ESPN/ABC come up again? Can the renegotiate now? Just curious.
LikeLike
I am actually very confused as to that fact.
For some reason, I thought the Big Ten had a renegotiation clause (because we obviously had 11 schools and were always trying to chase ND, so why sign a contract that wouldn’t be renegotiated up when a 12th joins…).
I think it’s a 10 year contract, so we renegotiate it in the beginning of 2016.
(I think it went into effect in 2007).
LikeLike
I have no doubt Dan’s numbers are as firm as Middle East peace prospects.
LikeLike
If you lose A&M to the SEC(likely, I think) and have a 9 team round robin (8 CGs, 4 OOGs) it becomes pretty easy to move the Oklahoma game to the first Saturday in December every year to be a “virtual” CCG. In most years all the implications of a CCG, but without scheduling an additional stumbling block. A&M is worth more to the SEC than it is to Texas with LSN; LSN already has the Texas market.
LikeLike
Just try divorcing the OU-UT game from the Texas State Fair…
LikeLike
Jeez… if it was this easy, everyone would be doing it. Think about it, less than half the BCS teams are getting a third of that, and that’s more than twice was Texas was already getting, but he can produce that after thinking about it for two days. Just like that. Just cuz Beebe says so. Me thinks this guy is full of cattle dung futures…
LikeLike
*cough, cough [bullshit] cough, cough*
LikeLike
Thamel NYT: Big 12 AD confirms to the NY Times that Texas is on cusp of committing to Big 12. He said, “The musical chairs will stop.
LikeLike
Frank,
“Yes, there’s power, but it’s like being the captain of the Titanic. A&M in SEC and Neb are going to make more TV $ than UT”
great twitter!
LikeLike
@duffman – Thanks! I can’t for the life of me understand why Texas wants to hold this clusterf**k together. Being master of its own domain is only worth it if the domain actually has value.
LikeLike
Because attempting to hold it together until at least Wed. afternoon might be wise. What Big Ten Jeff found and posted up thread:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/06/13/expansion.sunday/index.html
While some believe the regents will vote on moves Tuesday, Branch, the chair of the higher education committee, believes the schools will wait until after Wednesday’s hearing.
“To make a final decision before Wednesday,” Branch said, “would not be wise.”
Branch said the chief executives of Texas (Bill Powers), Texas A&M (R. Bowen Loftin) and Texas Tech (Guy Bailey) already have accepted their invitations to testify before the committee. Branch also hopes to have representatives from Baylor, Rice, Southern Methodist, TCU, Houston, North Texas and UTEP. Branch also has invited several economists as well as the commissioners of the Pac-10, SEC, Big 12, Mountain West and Conference USA.]
Also note which commissioner hasn’t been invited (that we know of.)
LikeLike
Winds change direction frequently. Why assume they won’t again?
LikeLike
It seems that Texas just can’t let go of the dream (LSN).
LikeLike
Frank, isn’t it obvious? If one uses “Beebe Math”, Texas A&M exiting the Big 12 only further enhances revenue per school. $30 Million in exit fees split 9 ways; A&M, like Colorado was an “underperformer”, etc.
Heck, Beebe could probably get Texas up to $30 Million a year if Oklahoma leaves. 🙂
LikeLike
Frank, but we all know how humans are.
If me and my neighbor are both earning $200k a year, but I could get a job with the Pac-10 earning $400k, while my neighbor takes $500k with the SEC, I’ll choose to drag my neighbor back with me to the job that makes $200k…
I don’t think Texas wants A&M going to the SEC and becoming financially better off as well as the recruiting/giving SEC markets aspect of it. The SEC will rapidly outdistance the Pac-16 if it gets A&M in my mind… (not that it won’t be ahead anyways even if A&M goes west)…
LikeLike
What is anyone hearing about the value of the B10+1+1?
Texas isn’t staying unless they are convinced there is value. Don’t have much faith in Chris Brown’s numbers, but if you accept those and Colorado was worth less than 1/12th and UNL only a little more, a huge % of the value is in UT. CU had to be #5 in the league in value and UNL #3 or #4.
LikeLike
I’m not sure UT does, but I think the UT athletic department does because they put value on winning & BCS bowls – isn’t their domain bigger, aren’t their salaries bigger, etc, when they win? They are prevailing. No way the average Texan wants UT in the Pac Ten or Big Ten even if it is better off there. The Athletic dept is making it impossible for Powers to leave. If they can say we can make more tomorrow than we can make day one elsewhere, that gives them the political cover they need to stay in the Big 12 remnant. Yes, not optimal for UT. But perhaps it is optimal for the people running the Athletic department.
LikeLike
Not really. Dodds is the best AD in the country in generating $. Now winning helps generate $, but that isn’t all there is to it. Powers and Dodds may not see eye to eye, but if there is a power struggle, it involves the board of regents. And that wouldn’t be unusual at UT. Dodds was going to retire and got renewed to help see UT through. He has stayed as AD for all these years because 1) he generated $; 2)did a great job influencing NCAA; and 3) he always backed the Presidents.
For those who don’t know Dodds’ background, he went to Kansas St. and was track coach and AD there before coming to Texas.
LikeLike
Maybe Texas wants to be one of the last ones to leave the Big 12. Not only will it end up at a desired destination, but pocket a fair share of all the exit fees too.
And, look, there’s a nickel in the ground over there….
LikeLike
Redhawk or any other OU fans,
Is UT’s LSN still a deal breaker for OU? I know that at one time OU was dead set against it. Do you think that they would now agree to allow UT to have it? I’m just trying to figure out what kind of weight I should give this chance for the Big 12-lite rival.
I’d also like to here from Aggie fans as well on this subject.
LikeLike
Why should it be a deal breaker if you look at it logically instead of emotionally? Any school in the country can now do it except Big 10 schools. Texas can do it in the B12-2 or quite possibly do it somewhere else. They certainly could do it in SEC. Would you rather them do it somewhere else?
LikeLike
it’s a deal breaker, in the fact that UT’s would have the potential to be SO much bigger than anyone else’s and giving UT a big money advantage.
I find it interesting that today, Chip Brown’s tweet only had BevoTV at 5 million per year. This seems like, a “hey, stay with me…we won’t REALLY be making $20 on our own” lie.
I know OU would like to have more games on locally of their own. I know OU is the next biggest fish when it comes to the local TV stuff. But is the difference TOO much to swallow? I’d say yes
@Bamatab – I really think the issue for OU is travel, and geogrophy and what really is a conference.
Is this Pac-10 with us being the “Texas Bitches” division really a long term conference? Or will it break up the next time a TV contract expires?
If the SEC would take Okla. St…OU would be in the SEC tonight.
LikeLike
Bullet, the way that the current SEC contract is structured, the only live football games that a school can have on their own networks are the ones that are not divided up among CBS and the ESPN channels. For Bama last year, that was only 1 game (and I believe that went for all the rest of the SEC team (Alan can correct me if I’m wrong on that)). Every other game was shown on CBS or the ESPN channels (or on ABC in the case of the VT game).
From what I understand, that is not UT’s plan. If they are planning on making the type of money that is being claimed off of the LSN, then I would think that they would have to show multiple live football games on it (maybe 4 or more). I think that is the hang up. One of the big 12 guys can correct me if I’m wrong, but can’t the Big 12 teams already show games on PPV or a college type network if it isn’t picked up by one of the other tv networks? But what UT seems to be planning is a step or two above this from what I can gather. Am I mistaken on this?
LikeLike
Right now the way the Big 12 is set up is their TV contacts get first pick, ABC, ESPN, Fox Regional. IF a game isn’t selected for/by any of the contracted outlets, the team can then put it on PPV or it’s own network.
For the record, OU raked it in at $30 a TV for Idaho State and Chattanooga PPV’s over the last 2 years.
But I think UT’s plan revolves around “Rebroadcast” rights as well.
LikeLike
B12 has same deal as SEC. LSN would take the leftovers which are now on PPV.
I have a hard time understanding why this is worth so much to show Louisiana-Monroe or Wyoming and the non-revenue sports, but the experts seem to believe it is. Of course, I’ve also seen its value estimated from $3 million to $40 million just in the last 2 days.
All makes me wonder if all of these networks, LSN, BTN, are just another internet bubble. The latest fad, that will be worth 1/10th as much in 5 years.
LikeLike
100% deal breaker
LikeLike
I guess I’m having a tough time understanding Texas’s negotiating strategy.
They are fully committed to try and keep the Big 12 together, but are not willing to budge on a single concession to the other schools? Nebraska came back to the table late and was willing to consider staying if concessions were made.
Did Texas underestimate the resentment over these points, or were they underestimating the ability and willingness of North schools with options to move despite the penalties? I’m willing to bet they expected Colorado to move because anyone with half a brain understands how much better a fit the PAC is for them, but I think they were shocked that NU was willing to move.
Even now Beebe’s revenue projections are all including the LSN. Is the marginal utility on that extra money really more important than keeping the other advantages of the Big 12 when you already make more money than any other school by a significant margin?
LikeLike
I simply see UT as having too many decisions. As you say Colo really had no decision to make. Stay in dying conference or go to Pac 10 where it seemed like a great fit. No real decision to make. Same for Neb. Stay with dying conference or go to the top conference (however you look at it it is either top or #2) in the country with states that border you. No real decision to make.
UT on the other hand has lots of options. Some options involve other Texas schools. They are just weighed down by having too many decisions. The old Decision Paradox. Paralysis by analysis. Whatever you want to call it.
Even A&M has less decisions though they are in the same boat. There decision is stay with UT or go to SEC.
Maybe UT underestimated certain things and overestimated others, but at the end of the day they just had too many options available, which allowed every different agenda to be placed on the table.
LikeLike
I think it’s more a function of UT trying to hold the ship together while facing wars on three fronts.
Everyone wants a piece of the Big 12. The Big Ten was always going to focus on Nebraska, the SEC was always going to focus on A&M, and the Pac-10 was always going to focus on Colorado.
Knowing that, what would Texas do? They have to choose to join one of the three conferences raiding the Big 12, or try to hold A&M and Nebraska with them.
They failed at holding Nebraska with them. They chose to go to the Pac-10 as a way of giving Nebraska an ultimatum and because the Pac-10 essentially offered to give them control of 1/2 of the league, which the SEC and Big Ten wouldn’t.
But now, A&M is threatening to bolt as well.
UT may be the strongest school in college sports individually, but it would never be able to completely hold on to its own league while being surrounded by three much stronger conferences (whether by actual strength due to Big Ten/SEC $ or the Pac-10’s regionality making it not a threat of being poached)…
LikeLike
If UT truly wanted to keep the conference alive with NU they could have done it, but not on thier terms. I don’t doubt that if UT had been willing to assign thier sports media rights to the conference for the long term and I mean 20+ years, NU would have stuck.
UT wants it all on thier terms and thier terms only. Now they got called by NU and have a less favorable situation because of it.
They can still probably make great money if they stick in the Big 12 and if they stay I don’t see any way A&M can leave. UT will have all the conference $$ and nothing the other schools can say, since they “Saved” the big 12.
At this point I don’t think that the LSN becomes as profitable as projected because ABC/ESPN will be televising all the UT games – what other conference games will trump them. That puts more of the conference share of the tv money split into UT’s pocket and creates even more financial inequality.
I really think only OU has the ability to force the issue and move on thier own, but they have already stated that they will deep throat UT all the way to the bank.
LikeLike
As for Colorado, I think everyone knew they were going. I’ve read they voted for B12 over P10 5-4 back in ’94 and 3 of those B12 regents terms ended within months of the vote. I had a lot of discussions with a well connected CU fan in the late 90s. They wanted to move to P10 then, but P10 wasn’t interested w/o UT. That’s Texas, not Utah. Utah wasn’t on the radar then, so CU would have to go alone, and as B10 fans know, 11 is a lousy number.
LikeLike
I don’t think 11 schools hurt teh big 10 at all. Ha ha, you call yourselves the big 10, but have 11 – can’t count. Hey you can’t have a title game, stupid. Other than hearing those two thoughts, what was the harm in only having 11? As the BCS era got off the ground, not having a title game was probably a blessing. It only increased the value of one of the B10’s primary asset – the Mich/OSU game.
LikeLike
Didn’t increase the value of Mich/OSU. NW could get a schedule that skipped both of those and win the conference. Iowa and Michigan could skip each other and sail through undefeated. There was a very mediocre Purdue team a few years back that only needed an upset of PSU to win the B10 because they didn’t have UM/OSU on the schedule. And as for basketball odd numbers are always bad.
Plus you only need one and you can get the $ from a championship game.
LikeLike
There is no negotiating strategy other than to issue ultimatums or try to box in other actors.
But that’s what any entity will do if it is internally divided.
That “house divided” picture of Texas/A&M aptly describes the situation within Texas as well. Powers and the academics want to join the academic institutions of the west coast. Dodds, Brown, and co. really preferred the Big 12 setup to the Pac-16, and they probably prefer to stay anyways.
If you’re Dodds or Brown, you remove the CCG as an obstacle to getting to the BCSNC, and geographically it does make the most sense for all sports.
Texas is negotiating trying to show externally a united front, while internally Powers tried to drag everyone along to the Pac-16. A&M’s SEC gambit changes the equation.
All of a sudden, A&M will soon be earning much more in TV money than Texas, depending on how much CBS/ESPN value A&M’s pull on Texas’ markets. The Pac-16 probably won’t be as lucrative as the SEC, etc.
SuperD, they want the LSN because they can. And eventually they may be earning as much as $10-15M per year from that effort alone depending on Texas’ growth in the future.
If they hitch that to a conference, they have to split most of their markets many ways…
LikeLike
Of course by damaging the Pac Ten offer the A&M move to the SEC leaves a tiny opening for the Big Ten as a compromise. But this requires that Powers has something else he can come back with to essentially balance but not tip the scales. Its hard to imagine what that could be. Right now, the Athletic department seems to be winning. The only other Big Ten option is to sweeten the pot for Texas athletically, and I don’t see it happening (nor do I think it is in the best interest of the “small company”, as Delany called it, over the long term).
LikeLike
The Wyz —
Your original comment on this matter was correct. Texas is split internally and is working its way to a consensus — or racing the clock to get enough people on board with their eventual decision. It may be that events are overtaking them and they may be forced to do something important elements don’t want (PAC-10).
That’s more bad news for the a Super PAC — the most important added school is not fully committed to the conference. Trading one dysfunctional situation for another.
LikeLike
They are only split, because they have so many options. It is nice to have all those options, but it allows for outside pressures to influence you. Neb had no splits because it was Option 1 v. 2 and 1 was rising and 2 was sinking.
LikeLike
I will preface this with money is in control, not academics!
that said I am UNC with a 60,000 seat stadium and an average football team….
now look at….
wake .. 30,000 + seats (in my backyard)
duke .. 34,000 + seats (in my backyard)
now look at ….
UK .. 70,000 + seats (with a RABID fan base that travels and spends money on food, and hotels when they come to town)
UT .. 100,000 + seats (with a RABID fan base that travels and spends money on food, and hotels when they come to town)
now I am a college president and / or local chamber of commerce
if money drive the bus, tell me that this does not mean BIG $$, and keep in mind UNC / UK would be roughly equal teams and UNC / UT would favor UT.
But here is the kicker, if UNC loses to UK or UT in football they can say wait till basketball season!!!!
If you do not understand how this works, you can not understand why UK is content with a crappy football product, as is keeps the “bragging” rights going back and forth between the sports. IU used to have a similar relationship with UK that I can easily see UNC establishing. If UNC gives up Duke in football, and UK gives up UL in football I can see very easily how the $$ gets much bigger, much quicker.
And I am not that smart.. just follow the money!
LikeLike
Sure, but then the president/chancellor has to go and explain to the academics and boosters (alumni who view themselves as academically elite) on why they made such a decision.
LikeLike
zeek,
It goes like this..
Dear Alumni & Boosters,
We being the smartest of the 2 have figured out a way to get rich while cutting the balls off of our hated rivals Duke. We may have to hold our nose a bit in academics, but we will still be around Vandy, UF, UGA, and some pretty decent schools. In return we can move on up the money chart, attract bigger corporate football sponsorship, and see a dream come true in the process. We will leave Duke behind in a “minor” conference like Kansas just got in the Big 12 “implosion”. Serves those damned Blues Devils right for bringing that rat faced coach into our world. We are the basketball royalty before that putz came along.
Sincerely,
Roy Williams
Erskine Bowles
Dick Baddour
(this is how I can see it)
Then delaney offers MD and UVA an invite
after that delany offers Rutgers and ND
LikeLike
No because no president of UNC or Duke would ever submit such a letter.
In fact, they’d first apply to the Big Ten (or in Duke’s case, the Ivy League and Big Ten).
They’d probably propose a Big Ten-ACC merger.
LikeLike
zeek,
who butters the ACC bread?
ESPN
FOX
now tell me they dismiss the SEC if push comes to shove?
I have listened to everybody on this board, and been open to new thoughts when they appear to have a logical basis of support. If I did not, I am just the French in WWII confidant that my “line” is SO superior, that the Germans will never attack.
and how did that work out for the French? I am smart enough to study history so as not to repeat it.
LikeLike
They dismiss it because they’re positioned like Great Britain and not Poland.
Big 12 = Poland (sandwiched between multiple powers.
ACC = Great Britain (on the periphery of the action, might be strong enough to stay separated).
LikeLike
duffman,
You keep talking about ESPN and Fox with the ACC and SEC, but the SEC’s money is from ESPN and CBS. First, none of the three networks alone would want to add value to a league unless it has all of its rights. Second, as powerful as the media are they would not want to be brought in front of congress for messing with higher education.
LikeLike
zeek,
they are not England, no water to breach.
the big 12 had 3 lions (Big 10, Pac 10, and SEC)
the ACC has 2 lions (Big 10, SEC) and both have an easy reach to the ACC.
The Big 10 comes down from the North and the the SEC comes up from the South. It is called a pincer movement, and works really good in battle. Your logic grows weaker and weaker, and you have no concrete answer like bama, alan, vincent, FLP, and others who have long history and direct knowledge of the actual situation at hand.
i am not saying I am right or wrong, I am allowing for “what if” and trying to find those with better knowledge to flesh out an argument or theory. I said early on Franks arguments made sense and I changed to adapt based on theories proposed. I have heard many say they view the Big 10 as “snooty” or “snobby”. My goal is to disarm their argument by showing this is not the case. If I appear “snooty’ I have already lost, If I engage and adapt I make the Big 10 show (by action) that we are not what others say we are.
FWIW
😉
LikeLike
Your post is worth next to nothing.
You haven’t disproven a single point that I’ve made in this entire thread.
Nice try though…
LikeLike
zeek,
a) you said it could not be presented to the boosters and alumni.
I responded with a letter (albeit tongue and cheek to show you how it could).
b) you said the Big 10 and ACC would merge.
1) I pointed out media alliances did not match.
2) I am pointing out now that merging both WOULD put you before congress.
c) I offered france, you countered with england.
In truth (from someone growing up at the feet of those who served in the war) Hitler was an idiot, who did not finish of England before going after russia (ie no russia, and we would all be speaking german now).
in this conversation I have argued that the big 12 shared 3 predators. The ACC shared 2. The BE had only 1. By action the Big 12 was most vulnerable, and the BE the least (as they held the least value). This thinking has not changed, and so far the Big 12 went first, so the ACC should be next.
You on the other hand have offered no supporting evidence via your personal and direct knowledge. If Frank wishes to check my backstory he has my email.
LikeLike
Let’s also add BRAND power to the mix. Schools should be looking for brands, because brands lead to $$. That is why I believe that UNC and Kansas are desirable schools for any conference, certainly over the likes of Mizzou or Va Tech. They have brand names that resonate nationally. Thinking of it this way, this may be why Syracuse is better than Rutgers for the B10. (Note – I’m not saying the are, but there is no doubt, they have a better brand).
If I’m an average viewer and I see a schedule with Mich v. Rutgers or Mich v. Syracuse, which looks more appealing? Unless Rutgers is ranked in the top 15, it is just a school in NJ. However, Syracuse has history, it has a great basketball program. Its a brand I (as a viewer) can relate too. Same with Kansas.
LikeLike
I guess I was saying they were. But there are other things to take into the equation. But Brand trumps state size in my opinion.
LikeLike
I think you have to make a distinction, at least for now, between football and basketball brands. Kansas is a basketball brand among the best. but the revenue potential for basketball is already pretty maxed out and more focused towards the tournament than conference play. football brands are the focus of this excercise began there is a potential to increase revenue AND do it within the context of conference own vehicles.
LikeLike
Indeed you do. That is not my argument. The Nebrasks invite clearly showed this. But when you get to “2nd tier” candidates – those behind ND/UT/Neb – any brand is better than no brand. When you think of the SEC, you probably think of the football brands first, but then you think of KY – above Ole Miss, South Carolina, etc.
Kansas has value over Mizzou not necessarily because of its basketball, but because there is an association with Kansas -which comes from basketball. (Maybe that isn’t necessarily true, but it is the argument I am trying to make). The same argument is made with Syracuse vis-a-vis Rutgers.
Having brand power should be more of an asset than having no brand power. Mizzou/Rutgers have very little brand power. Does the brand power outweigh the other factors (states, population, TV sets)? If it brand power that was built primarily from football, the answer seems to be yes. If it is brand power primarily built from basketball we don’t know yet. However, it should be known that both Syracuse and Kansas offer some brand power that was somewhat (if very small) built from football. I mean two of the best running backs of all time went there.
LikeLike
duffman, I agree money is in control, which is why academics are more important. Think alumni, research and endowments. The fact that the SEC only has two AAU schools and tier 3 institutes are huge negatives to UNC.
If the ACC dissolved, the Big East is more likely for NC schools than SEC.
LikeLike
Hu what? 2 of the 12 (17%) SEC schools are tier 3. 4 of the 8 (50%)Big East football schools are tier 3.
LikeLike
Hu Man,
I made this argument early on in a comparison between chess masters and bridge masters. the AAU is skewed to those who got in early (like some bridge masters that can not get out of their own way, but started playing at a young age and accumulated MASSIVE points over time). While I am not knocking it, I see inherent flaws (go back and look at what year each school got in).
A chess master is based on play. You win you go up, you lose, you go down. Adaptation and skill is more valuable than time. Just an observation.
As a fan of both games, I prefer a partner game like bridge (until I run into someone with MASSIVE points, and no skill). By nature tho, I am a team player – that is why the Big 10 appeals to me as they share. So far texas has not shown that in a meaningful way, but I digress.
LikeLike
And all that extra SEC revenue will be used up in short order training to maintain athletic (read “football”) parity with UNC’s new free-spending SEC friends. So in the end, it’s really a wash. More athletic dept. money brought in, but more athletic dept. money spent. But in the process, the ‘Heels lessen by association the academic prestige they’ve spent decades cultivating.
LikeLike
That’s the most amusing fallacy operating. All these schools think they’re getting some huge windfall, when in fact it’s all going to be sucked up by higher AD expenditures. Only the few schools at the absolute top of the food chain (Texas, ND) will actually make a “profit” out of this game of musical chairs.
Reality check story from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601079&sid=a80qQrrJ28Bg
LikeLike
Hope everyone who thinks conference expansion is the secret to infinite riches reads that article. Repeating myself (almost ad nauseum, now) with Big State U’s tuition continuing it’s 4-8% annual increase and state budgets faceing structural deficits for the next decade or so, students and lawmakers are going to start questioning the continued subsidies to the toy depts of the universities. Joe College Student might not be as keen on gridiron success when he realizes a growing portion of his 6 figure debt went to pay for it.
LikeLike
Conference expansion works a lot better for the haves moving to better have conferences than for the have nots moving to better have conferences.
A rich athletics department like Nebraska adds large enough marginal value to the Big Ten, while not needing to increase expenditures to keep up with the Joneses.
Obviously, one like Rutgers would need to increase expenditures even more than the increase in TV money to keep up.
In reality, many universities should not be trying to keep up with the money race that is D1 sports…
LikeLike
A couple a blog posts ago, I suggested that schools like Iowa State and Syracuse (rich history–but where’s the money going to come from to replace the Carrier Dome in the next decade?) should see the realignment process as a signal to gracefully exit the football arms race and focus on less costly sports like basketball (or wrestling for ISU) A skilled marketing dept. could sell the recusal from big time football duties as said university wisely using its resources for the betterment of all students. Or some such.
LikeLike
I saw that argument, and I agreed with the sentiment wholeheartedly.
The problem is just that boosters are too proud to ever let that happen, and the boosters at the haves schools are too rich and powerful (and in many cases numerous) and keep raising the bar with the sheer $ they’re throwing at athletics departments.
LikeLike
Agree and agree. Especially in certain states. Texas and Florida are expanding, but they are growing and have more resources (as a state). They also have split loyalties which more easily allows for start up schools. The whole state won’t rally around one flag.
LikeLike
You haven’t given a good reason for why UNC wouldn’t chose the Big10.
1. Same money as SEC (give or take).
2. Better academic reputation.
3. Geography won’t be an argument if Delany’s smart, since I’d offer Maryland, Virginia, Duke, GTech, Miami, & maybe FSU along with UNC to go to a Big20 if I was him (ND would be the cherry on top if they come along).
LikeLike
richard,
in my early argument 16 was the number
under the gambit delany must choose UNC or ND to stay at 16. He must sacrifice one to get the other to stay at 16.
I think 16 is a stopping point, as once a Big 3 member hits 17 congress WILL step in. None of the Big 3 wants that so 16 is the value point that keeps the 800 lb gorillia (US gov) at bay.
Again, i could be wrong, but 16 is it (for now).
LikeLike
Nah. It’s not as if the Big10 doesn’t have Congresspeople on its side as well (plus they can probably count on the Congress-critters in Pac16 states, since they’d want the option of taking in some MWC schools once they become more viable), so I don’t think there’s any logical reason for a conference to stop at 16, any more than there’s a logical reason for McDonalds to expand to 75 countries and then stop instead of expanding on in to 125 countries.
LikeLike
Big IIX just a Pawn in Mongo’s game of life?
Exit queen, rook and bishop.
Now what do ya do??? Texas says Play on!!!! ????
LikeLike
Dan Beebe tells it how it is:
“Why could no one else figure out that I kicked out Nebraska and that other school to make more money for the rest of us?”
LikeLike
Did not know Dan Beebe was a comedian?
LikeLike
on the off chance you didn’t notice that is the Fake Dan beebe twitter. although it is hard to tell the difference
LikeLike
oops, OK I got punked.
LikeLike
So Beebe can pull together an SEC like deal in a few days, but not over the last few years????
Either he’s a used cars salesman or he was asleep on the job.
LikeLike
If I’m a Husker, I’d be thankful to be in a conference run by Delany. I’m sure you’ve read Wetzel’s piece on how Delany totally played him: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=dw-expansion060610 . Even though I do disagree with his characterization of Delany’s intent, it was clear that Beebe thought that just having Texas in the Big 12 was enough to make it all work.
LikeLike
In fairness to him, the current contract expires in 2012. Noone was planning on negotiating until next April. They were probably doing only very preliminary work. So he has to do it now or there’s no April. And until Friday, he didn’t know who was definitely jumping overboard.
LikeLike
What is A&M’s incentive to stay in this deal. Their AD has been one of the biggest opponents to the UT getting to have the the LSN. Now they’re perfectly content to stay for a few more million dollars even if it means UT is going to making 5 – 10 million more than them or even more over the long run. If they really have an SEC offer on the table that is pretty damn bad stewardship of their stakeholders interests, though I understand politics are an issue.
LikeLike
Okay so are we about to find out how much the PAC 10 and Big 10 are colluding and whether they REALLY want to go to 16 schools. If you’re Delany and you’re trying to force a 16 school structure isn’t the play now to offer Mizzou and pull the rug out from the Big 12 sticking together? I know this limits your options a bit for going East though. The PAC could try the same thing with KU, but it might be a bit riskier and I don’t think KU can pull the trigger on that offer if there is a deal on the table that keeps KSU in a BCS conference, even if its just for a couple of years.
LikeLike
Offering Missouri might just tilt things Powers’ way. The real way to do would be to offer Tech or better yet Oklahoma :).
That won’t happen
LikeLike
RE ESPN/ABC contract
Presumably, the Big Ten will attempt to get some sort of bump from ESPN for adding Nebraska. If this doesn’t work, what’s to stop the Big Ten from putting all the new inventory on BTN?
I’m not sure this is the greatest welcome for Nebraska, but it would give a great boost to the BTN.
LikeLike
fwiw I think that is how the contract works. ESPN/ABC gets a specified number of games each week and a slotting system of sorts that determines who gets first choice etc. all the rest of the games remain with the Big Ten Network. I think. so there would be no change in the number of games and probably no change in the fee. The Big Ten Network just ends up with a larger number of games. The only negotiating point would be that ESPN/ABC now has an enhanced pool to select from with Nebraska but I doubt they would want to keep Nebraska out of the pool. the more national tv audiences see games with Nebraska in the Big Ten the better.
LikeLike
So are you saying Nebraska will be seen on the BT Network in the upcomeing season?
LikeLike
not football. they don’t officially join til 2011 so all of that is for the 2011 season.
but Delany did say that they were working with Nebraska and that other sports at Nebraska not covered by existing Big 12 arrangements could start appearing on the BTN. not football and probably not basketball. but track, wrestling, women’s volleyball, soccer etc. its a long year and there is a lot of that on the BTN. and soemthing that doesn’t get mentioned is the BTN is a great recruting tool for other sports. a woman’s volleyball player going to a Big Ten school knows that friends ad family back home will get lots of chances to see them play.
LikeLike
Yeah that coverage is a really good recruiting tools for some of the sports that trail into late spring/summer when the student body may or may not support them.
LikeLike
If they have a non-televised game, the BTN would be better than pay-per-view for all involved.
LikeLike
Let’s analyze the Big 12 contract in a simple context that works intuitively.
There were 12 schools. Some had footprints, some had brands, some were there to be on the schedule.
In order for the payouts to make sense, some schools had to pull more weight than other schools. The average payout of the Big 12 was around $9M (or whatever it was, let’s just assume $9M). These payouts were based on negotiations made a long time ago, so it is worth keeping that in mind, i.e. for Nebraska’s draw.
These teams probably brought in less than the median (I’ll get to why I’m using median rather than average) by virtue of their being in the Big 12: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech. The ordering of these schools doesn’t matter as much. In fact you could argue that you switch them out with any other school and the contract’s value wouldn’t change.
The 7 “money making” schools are Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Colorado.
Based on what we know of the situation, clearly Texas brought in the lion share of the income followed by A&M/Oklahoma/Nebraska. Due to the redundancy of the A&M footprint due to Texas and Oklahoma sharing with Oklahoma State (even in a small context); I would posit that all three brought relatively similar value to the Big 12 based on their brand, especially since the negotiations were made only a few years after Nebraska’s run in the 90s.
So what was/is the value here; I would go off of the notion that any of the lowest 5 could be replaced with any other school without hurting the contract (even D2 football programs).
So the 100% allotment of value should go to the 7 schools that bring whatever markets/national brands that they can.
For Beebe to argue that only 8-9% of the Big 12 is based on the value of Colorado/Nebraska is a joke.
He’s arguing that Texas/A&M/Oklahoma/Missouri/Kansas bring in 91-92% of the value.
His breakdown probably looks like:
1) Texas: 65%
2) Oklahoma: 10%
3) A&M: 10% (obviously worth much much more to the SEC since it wouldn’t be redundant footprint-wise)
4) Nebraska: 7%
5) Kansas: 4%
6) Missouri: 3%
7) Colorado: 1%
While, I’m sure that Texas brings a lot of value to the Big 12; I’m not sure it’s that much.
Mine would probably look more like:
1) Texas: 50%
2) Oklahoma: 15%
3) Nebraska: 15%
4) A&M: 10%
5) Kansas: 5%
6) Missouri: 3%
7) Colorado: 2%
So the hit to the Big 12 would be more than double what Beebe thinks.
And Nebraska’s value is probably lowered because of its exile in the Big 12 North, where it didn’t have as many yearly marquee matchups against Texas/A&M/Oklahoma as those three had with each other…
I don’t know if this really helps the discussion, but I think that’s what went through Beebe’s mind.
Either way, having Nebraska in a division with Michigan or Ohio State or Penn State and with Iowa/Wisconsin regardless, should increase its value dramatically.
LikeLike
Reaklly good analysys there Zeek. You hammered home. So the Television value of a Big XII has changed dramatically. it could be one texas = nebraska and colorado roughly but throw in a texas A&M and its definately a loss.
LikeLike
What about the loss of the CCG? If the SEC CCG is ~$15M, then is the Big XII CCG worth at least $10-11M?
Using Zeke’s number of $9M per school, then 12 X $9M is $108M for the conference. So losing a CCG is roughly a 10% loss to conference revenue. Or, roughly $1M lost to each school.
So by expansion math, if 11+1=13, then perhaps 12-2=9.
LikeLike
Zeek, Are you on frank’s payroll (I know he has a nice sized staff at “Frank the Tank Enterprises”)???
You’re overestimating the value of Texas.
If you say that the value of the Big12 is/was 12…
I’d say Texas equals 3 schools to the Big 12.
OU and Nebraska 2 schools each.
Texas A/M, Colorado, Kansas, Mizzou 1 school each.
Baylor, ISU, KSU, Tech, OkSt 1 school combined.
The current value of the Big 12 is 9….split among 10 teams. No one they add could help their value that much.
You’ve way undervalued Colorado (Denver market is sizable, even with a slumping Buff program). Texas is a gem but with A/M and Tech in the conference also, there is no WAY they are worth 50% of the conference’s value.
Like you said, everything changes if Texas and/or Texas A/M and/or Tech are in a conference by their lonesome.
Texas A/M by itself in the SEC sees its value skyrocket to 2 teams value.
LikeLike
this was posted back in the earlier days of innocence in the FtT world…
http://espn.go.com/blog/big12/post/_/id/2094/how-the-big-12-teams-rank-in-revenue-sharing-funds
LikeLike
I keep hearing arguments for this and that..
Like Missouri, WVU, Clemson, etc to the SEC
Now think like an alpha lion, do they eat the hooves first?
NO! they go for the best parts first, that is WHY they are the alpha!
If I am slive or delany, I am the alpha lion..
I will go for the choice cuts first, as the hooves will always be there.
When thinking what the Big 10 / SEC will do, just ask yourself is it a “choice” cut or a hoof….
This is base leadership, not rocket science!
LikeLike
lol. good analogy
LikeLike
In truth they go for the soft underbelly ie the genitals. It’s the softest spot in which to open the cavity thus revealing the vital innards.
LikeLike
StvInILL,
if that is the case then A&M made the first strike by ripping off UT’s balls!
🙂
LikeLike
So another random thought. How bad does Scott want UT if aTm isn’t along for the ride?
If he still wants them that bad, would it not be worth his time to fly to Lawrence tell them aTm’s spot is yours but you have to blow up the B12. Kansas still has the ability to throw a major monkey wrench in any chance of the B12 sticking together by asking for the moon.
If your Kansas, which would you rather have?
1. A “dying” conference
2. A conference with more money and UT power basis that is diminished with revenue sharing.
By asking for the moon, you may get it. If push the button and blow up the B12 then get to go to a more stable conference.
LikeLike
Moon meaning no LSN, Revenue Sharing, and a 20-year commitment with big buyout clause.
LikeLike
That’s an interesting outside-the-box gambit.
But, there’s one problem: Kansas State. I’m pretty sure that if Texas and co. commit to the Big 12, but Kansas tries to topple the dominoes by going to the Pac-10, that Kansas politicos would explode and force them to stay.
Plus, their chancellor is on the record as saying they’re looking at doing what’s best for both if they can…
LikeLike
Plus, you saw how furious Brownback and Roberts were about Nebraska bolting.
They’d bring down KU’s leadership if they were the domino that broke the Big 12.
LikeLike
zeek,
easy..
kansas: “you know that funding bill you have coming up?”
k state: “sure”
kansas: “you let us end run this conference thing, and we will not oppose your funding bill”
k state: “ok”
LikeLike
And then Kansas State alumni legislators destroy all of Kansas’s appropriations…
LikeLike
Hangtime,
brilliant and ballsy play! Well said!
LikeLike
“So another random thought. How bad does Scott want UT if aTm isn’t along for the ride? ”
Getting Kansas to blow up the conference is an interesting idea. But in this scenario I think A&M could come along.
I think if the administrators at UT called up the administrators at A&M and said they should go to the Big 10 together, it would likely be accepted. It would be seen as compromise and not either school imposing its will on the other. The money would probably be better than the SEC and definitely better than the Pac 16. The travel would be worse than the SEC but still much better than the Pac 16. There would be comments about the ‘3 yards and a cloud of dust’, but the common fan would come around quickly to the athletic pluses of being in a conference with OSU, PSU, Michigan, and Nebraska.
I think UT leans toward the Pac 16 because it’s a compromise between the athletic department (which wants local schools and an easier schedule) and the administrators (which like the academic associations and realize keeping Texas Tech around would be good politics).
So I think Kansas blowing up the conference would likely just make the Pac 16 that much more likely.
LikeLike
Of course, another possibility is that the “little guys” (ISU, KSU, KU, MU) could call Texas’ bluff by accepting an offer to join the eight Big East football schools, leaving UT, TTU, OU and OSU no choice than to head to the Pac-10. (As for Baylor, if will have to sail its own way; that’s what you get when you were foisted upon this conference in the first place.)
LikeLike
And make $3M a year as opposed to the $20M they make each year the next 2 based on exit fees in the Big 12?
The Big 12 schools are stuck in a bind.
LikeLike
I’m still very skeptical that the Big 12-lite schools would be able to secure a tv contract worth $15m each, much less $20m each. If they can, then I’ll believe it when I see it.
LikeLike
I was talking about if the Pac-16 does occur, how can the Big 12 North leftovers just walk away from a conference that takes in a ton of money based on exit fees as well as its own contract for the next 2 years…
They’d wait and then leave if they do, or negotiate to leave after taking the money and turning off the lights.
And yea, I did an analysis above Bamatab of how I think Beebe got to the notion that Nebraska/Colorado were only worth 8-9%. I’d estimate that they’re worth up to 17% of the contract.
So I doubt the Big 12-lite hits the jackpot. Especially as ESPN had to fight off a bidding war with Fox. Perhaps they pass on the Big 12 lite…
LikeLike
Sorry zeek, I misread your post.
LikeLike
BUT…the schools won’t know for SURE, until it’s too late
LikeLike
Redhawk, please tell me that there isn’t a chance that OU and aTm would actually sign up for this until they know all of the facts? Surely they would hold out until the tv contracts are signed. Heck, it’s not like they can’t wait since the SEC isn’t in any hurry to expand if the Pac 10 is halted at 12 and the Big 10 is currently holding at 12. I’ve already lost some respect for most of the schools in the Big 12, but please tell me that they aren’t that stupid to formally agree to a Big 12-lite with the chance they they get stuck out on a limb again. OU needs to man up and act like they’re in the big boy’s club, and aTm needs to continue manning up.
LikeLike
@Bamatab- OU’s choices are pretty limited.
1) go the Pac-10, which doesn’t look that great from OU’s end.
2) Join the SEC with out Okla. St and also with out knowing their is a new TV contract.
3) Keeping the Big 12 together, praying a new TV deal is legit, and that BevoTV doesn’t bury the rest of the league.
All 3 suck. OU is forced to pick the less of the 3. From OU’s perspective, this Big 12/9 has 6 team from the Big 8. It looks like a conference in geography, and in historical connections (as compared to the Pac10)
If the SEC would take Okla. St, OU would be gone before the ink was dried on the offer.
LikeLike
Pingback: Tweets that mention The Real Reason Why Notre Dame’s Hand Might Be Forced « FRANK THE TANK’S SLANT -- Topsy.com
Two schools not to be right now..
Baylor – nobody likes the kid who has somebody do his fighting
Missouri – nobody likes a rat or tattle tale..
LikeLike
Former Oregon AD Pat Kilkenny’s private jet too off from Austin, TX on Monday at 1:00pm Central Time.
The flight plan filed with the FAA has the jet scheduled to land at Stockton, CA at 2:30pm Pacific Time.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N228PK
Let’s see whether the jet lands at Stockton or at Concord’s Buchanan Field, where the Pac-10 officials boarded the jet on Saturday morning.
I am assuming that Pac 10 Commissioner Larry Scott is on the Kilkenny’s jet.
Scott has to be in Half Moon Bay, CA for the commissioner’s association annual meeting on Tuesday.
The Orange County Register is reporting that Pac 10 Deputy Commissioner Kevin Weiberg is traveling separately to Lawrence, Kansas to meet with his old boss, Kansas AD Lew Perkins.
http://www.ocregister.com/sports/texas-253262-meet-scott.html
LikeLike
The Orange County Register is reporting that Pac 10 Deputy Commissioner Kevin Weiberg is traveling separately to Lawrence, Kansas to meet with his old boss, Kansas AD Lew Perkins on Monday night.
http://www.ocregister.com/sports/texas-253262-meet-scott.html
LikeLike
Former Oregon AD Pat Kilkenny’s private jet too off from Austin, TX on Monday at 1:00pm Central Time.
The flight plan filed with the FAA has the jet scheduled to land at Stockton, CA at 2:30pm Pacific Time.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N228PK
Let’s see whether the jet lands at Stockton or at Concord’s Buchanan Field, where the Pac-10 officials boarded the jet on Saturday morning.
I am assuming that Pac 10 Commissioner Larry Scott is on the Kilkenny’s jet.
Scott has to be in Half Moon Bay, CA for the commissioner’s association annual meeting on Tuesday.
LikeLike
Interesting point-Byrne (A&M AD) is in Idaho at a family function. I don’t think A&M is making any decisions right now. They’ve decided to take a time out.
LikeLike
Could Kansas (and K-State) get involved in the Pac-10 derby, with Colorado already in and Utah likely as well, in order to pressure OU, Okie State and Texas Tech to tell UT to quit playing this game of chicken? If KU and KSU were to join UU and CU, only two of the remaining four could go in. Texas would then have to choose its poison — allow OU and OSU to head off to the SEC, or try to go into the Big Ten, which won’t take TT, thus incurring the wrath of state legislators. Or Scott could say, we’ll pass up the Kansas schools if you and the other three follow through as planned.
The Kansas schools might not like being played like this, but there’s also a chance that UT hubris could get them seats at the Pac-16 table after all.
LikeLike
What is in Texas’ best interests? Probably a league which they control, providing a robust TV/cable contract and access to the BCS. The Beebee12 would provide that.
What is in ND’s interest? Football independence and a continued place to play other sports. The Beebee12 can be flexible enough to incorporate ND.
Delany and the B10 were proposing a ND/TX merger with the B10 and BTN. Why can’t ND/TX do it without the B10? Certainly TX and it’s little sisters can form a league that makes alot of money for ND&TX while letting ND keep their football independence.
LikeLike
These two would generate a lot of money that the little sisters would not be able to benefit from in any way. This is a dysfunctional relationship. This is bad enough to watch in people but a conference?
LikeLike
Frank et al:
What are the chances the Big 12 would be interested in adding BYU and Memphis? Memphis has been openly pining for a BCS invite and it might add more than BYU/New Mexico.
LikeLike
The Big 12 staying at 10 is probably the optimal solution unless they think that adding 2 more means the CCG adds more money than taking home 1/10th of the pie instead of 1/12th…
You’re not adding anything that marginally increases the value of the contract, so the only thing that improves is the CCG.
No one thinks a potential Big 12 CCG is worth $35-40M if they want to make $17-20M per team…
So no expansion would work…
LikeLike
So you think the conference will stay at 10 for the indefinite future? I doubt this new Big 12 deal will one wherein all schools share revenue equally. I would be willing to bet a lot of teams (BYU, New Mexico, Memphis, Air Force) would take a smaller piece of the pie in such a way that you could pay them and then get a CCG that would increase revenue overall.
LikeLike
You’re talking about a really tiny piece of the pie.
Look at my analysis above for whether teams marginally add value to a contract.
Teams like Baylor, etc. can be replaced in a game with any other team. They don’t add marginal value to the contract.
The only value that you really get out of teams 11 and 12 is the CCG since you’re discussing teams that don’t really add markets.
The CCG for the Big 12 would be worth something like $5-10M. And Texas/Oklahoma would argue that their final game of the season in a 10 team format is just a replacement for the CCG. Thus, they could probably just get more money for RRR sponsors and stuff.
I guess it could work if the two teams willing to join would be really junior partners and get next to nothing…
But if Texas/Oklahoma think it’s just going to be the RRR, then why not keep it between the two of them by hyping up the RRR as the final game of the season with a bunch more sponsors?
They could even more the RRR to Cowboy Stadium, etc.
Yes, I think the Big 12-2 stays at 10.
LikeLike
Zeek, it is and will always be the RRSO, not the RRR.
LikeLike
@zeek spoken like someone that really doesn’t understand the history and the passion that the game is and what it’s like to have the game at the Cotton Bowl and during the Texas State Fair.
Some of us were pissed when they started moving the date of the game either up a week or back a week from the traditional “2nd Saturday in October”
LikeLike
I don’t know anything about the RRSO, nor do I care to. As you say, that alternative is probably entirely off the table due to tradition…
My point is that unless a CCG adds enough to pay off 2 new members, it won’t happen.
LikeLike
Oh, and the fact that Texas A&M (a school totally obsessed with its rivalry with UT) is considering breaking off the LSS, I don’t think tradition matters as much as $ right now…
LikeLike
@zeek Yeah I realize that this is about money but there is a line.
Moving OU-Texas game is it. It’s the highlight of both teams year, and that’s because of tradition.
We are all whores in this, but even whores have dignity some where.
LikeLike
Agreed Redhawk. Game stays in October at the state fair.
In any event, there is some of the FSU/Miami logic. The loser still has a chance to get back in the MNC race since the loss would be early in the season.
LikeLike
I think it has to make money sense. maybe it makes money sense to add BYU. I don’t know what the numbers would look like.
LikeLike
Memphis v. Louisville is a big time B-ball rival. Both schools seem to make sense.
LikeLike
If the SEC would take Oklahoma St….OU would be gone before dinner.
LikeLike
If TEXAS doesn’t reign in their inner Stalin there will be no incentive for teams like (the Oklahomas) not to.
LikeLike
“Inner Stalin”
Good one!
LikeLike
There is always a point in life when the adults in the room have to stand up and say no. So the kids go to ask a less responsible adult.
LikeLike
So which network is the “White Knight” that has stepped up to “Save the Clocktower”? ABC? CBS? NBC?
LikeLike
Fox.
LikeLike
Just a guess, but didn’t they try to save the Big 12 before Nebraska left by offering big $?
LikeLike
yep
If the Big 12 goes away, they have very little choices left in getting into College Football, with the ACC and SEC tied up already.
LikeLike
Good, more money to pump into the Big Ten Network – and to pressure Notre Dame with.
Though many can’t bring themselves to admit it, if the BTN is to ever be a national entity (as Fox & Delany envision it) Notre Dame is still a must.
LikeLike
Fox was doing the Pac 16, right? So they outbid themselves for the B12-2?
LikeLike
That is what I was thinking.
LikeLike
bama,
off topic, you watching bama vs clemson right now?
LikeLike
It wasn’t going very well, but the tide may have turned (sorry for the pun).
LikeLike
Well, it’s over now and we lost. But we made a game out of it there at the end.
LikeLike
No, Fox doesn’t want to give ESPN/CBS get their hands on Texas markets in the SEC through Texas A&M…
LikeLike
But they still bid against themselves. And why didn’t Fox just throw all that money at the Big 12 before anybody left? And weren’t they worried about Texas going to the Big Ten? (Yes, they own 49% of the BTN, but ABC/ESPN has the rights to the plum games).
Guess we’ll find out soon enough who it is.
LikeLike
the Cartoon Network.
Beebe’s a natural
LikeLike
Probably someone with a vested interest in stopping Fox’s bid for two 16-school power conferences with their own partially owned networks wouldn’t you think. That or Comcast throwing their hat in the ring, but neither of the Big 12’s deals are currently up.
LikeLike
I actually think it might be NBC/Comcast- partially for Versus and partially for NBC (doubleheaders w/ ND games some weeks?)
LikeLike
I am calling bullshit on Beebe’s numbers.
Could Texas and Oklahoma make $20 million? Absolutely. There is no chance that schools such as Kansas State, Kansas and Iowa State can possibly double their money.
You are now down to two brand name powers in the Big 12 in UT and OU, as well as the loss of one of your top three media markets outside Texas in Colorado. In fact, Colorado would have been right there with Texas A&M as the #4 football power in the conference.
Could Texas and Oklahoma make a lot of money? Sure. However, I don’t see the demand for any of the northern teams.
LikeLike
Time to clean up the clubs.
If Big 12 on the high side of life support?
Big 10 will continue the expansion study but I would expect them to stay at 12.
Pac 10 adds Utah and CCG
SEC stays put.
ND & BE happy.
That could be it.
LikeLike
Maybe Delany wanted Nebraska all along. and thats it.
12-18 month study period: To get everyone paranoid.
Big 12 freaks gives deadlines to speculative teams without contemplating life without them.
Cu and Nebraska bolt after crazed Big 12 meetings, (Missouri holding jock)
Big 12 teams scurry like cockroaches
Finally they stop thinking individually and OU says look we should absorb them were the Big 12 damn it.
UT continues to work for best deal for them in the Big 12. they finally give equal tv revenue as long as they get BEVO cash. Others comply.
Big 12 alive. But could still have Nebraska and CU if they just were introspective at original meetings instead of mad about flirtations.
Delany gets 12th team and CCG without really doing anything but hire a company to do a study on 16 team expansion and then leak it.
Which causes a firestorm of blogs and speculation talking about the BTN and its manifest destiny.
Maybe 12 was it all along.
LikeLike
At ten there are potentially 2 spots open for, oh, I dunno, maybe ND and a friend.
+ Merit-based revenue sharing.
+ Each school can have its own network if it wants.
+ 1 or 2 games in the recruiting grounds of Texas every year.
+ Can offer a 7 conference schedule. 5-2 with divisions, or 3 protected rivalries and the remaining 8 every other year.
LikeLike
Just a hunch, but I don’t think ND can have its own network.
Texas is a national brand with an enormous footprint.
Notre Dame is a national brand without a footprint.
Notre Dame needs a network that’s already set up that it can piggyback on with its national brand and extend the tentacles of that network throughout both coasts and particularly the northeast…
LikeLike
Also, Notre Dame’s network is called NBC; that’s the only way it really works…
LikeLike
Hats off to you Zeek, that is a brilliant idea.
I’m sorry I called you a Chip Brown homer. 😉
LikeLike
Which is why a ND-BTN partnership could have possibilities.
LikeLike
Not necessarily right now, but if the next BCS negotiation agrees on a playoff but requires all participants to be from a BCS conference or makes the hurdle for outsiders much higher.
LikeLike
Playoffs, nice. But If ND does not feel enough pleasure to rush into the Big Ten now why rush into a vulnerable Big IIX? They already recruit in Texas. it’s more important that they beat Texas not just play them to get the best recruits. All things being equal I think ND hunkers down on their BE collaboration.
LikeLike
The eventual, some-day, future-forward Moral of the Story?
A house divided against itself cannot stand.
LikeLike
GLS,
that or GREED KILLS!
LikeLike
from a friend listening to Kansas sports radio
… supposedly working on new deal for basically creating a new conf …. all signed confidentality deals just to discuss this potential new deal … that the 7 schools not named TX, TX A&M and OK made some concessions in which all schools conceivably receive more $, but the 3 big ones (TX, OK and TX A&M) will receive more than those 7 schools … TX potentially retains right for its own TV network …
LikeLike
oh, that sounds like a good and happy family/conference. I can’t see that blowing up.
/sarcasm
LikeLike
by thought exactly.
when does an Iowa State say that as long as their percentage keeps getting eroded and they have little chance to compete with the Big Three on the field why not take a chance on the Mountain West.
LikeLike
Iowa State……MAC
Now Kstate, and KU…could say screw this, lets go to the Pac-10 (or the MWC)
LikeLike
yea probably.
I hope Kanas gets an invite to the Pac 10. good school that deserves better. Same for Kansas State but Mountain West more likely.
LikeLike
Iowa State won’t go to the MWC unless it’s forced to.
For one, the money is going to be better as a vassal of Texas than it would be as an equal partner with BYU. Another issue, and they are talking about this at the DM Register, is that the MWC doesn’t compete in wrestling, and wrestling is a big deal at ISU. The Big East also doesn’t field wrestling championships, so they don’t want to go there either.
ISU is willing to do anything to stay in the Big 12. It’s really the only way they stay solvent.
LikeLike
What other choice do they have though?
I mean Texas is saying we’ll give you each $10M, but we’ll take home $20M… (i.e. we need filler on the schedule). It’s not like they can justify not taking the $10M even though Texas is walking all over them…
It sucks, but it is what it is.
And I’m sure they’ll add a 3 team veto now instead of 4…
LikeLike
I get it and its understandable why all would agree to it at this snapshot in time…I just don’t see any of the (alleged) disharmony of the conference being changed.
Another plus for UT…if they start and establish their Longhorn Network, and the conference falls apart later on down the road – I would think it would be impossible for another conference to accept them without it.
LikeLike
Agree on all points, and just playing devil’s advocate with the board (and following the post about the ND poster saying that conferences are all going to die), let’s assume that UT is able to pull off the Longhorn Network?
Are there other schools that could? Would an Ohio State look at it and go, yeah we could do that? Basically setting of a chain reaction of moving back to independence. I would put it at less than 1% but you never know what the future may hold.
LikeLike
Not exactly confidential. Here are the numbers:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5285680
LikeLike
Based on the ESPN numbers, it sounds like the existing deal. Texas makes about $10 million because they get more TV appearances, Baylor $7 million. Both get doubled.
So my latest gut feel for Texas:
B12-2 50% (up from 1% a few days ago)
P10+6 40%
B10+1+1+? 9%
SEC 1%
LikeLike
ESPN .. reporting OrangeBloods saying texas will be Big 12 (10 – Lite) which makes me wonder if they are about to become the Big 9 (lose 1 more and they are the Big 8 , how is that for irony).
the more I hear OB, the less I value their credibility to be anything but a mouthpiece for UT, and not the Big ?? as a whole.
LikeLike
I hope the retain the name Big 12 and somehow fit a 10 in there. So the Big 10 will have 12 and the Big 12 will have 10.
LikeLike
If this is the end game, what happened:
1. Co went to Pac-10 (does Utah follow).
2. Neb went to Big 10.
3. Boise St. goes to MWC.
If the B12-lite remains (whatever the name, does SEC do anything – probably not without A&M.
So who is the real winner? I’d say the B10 and Neb.
LikeLike
Big Ten and Nebraska come out the best due to their already well off perches in status and revenue.
One can make an argument that the Pac will come out ahead (no homerun though) with a Colorado and Utah expansion TBD new nat’l TV network deal as well as a launch of their own PTN.
The biggest loser would be the MWC. They gain Boise but (potentially) lose Utah and lose the chance at picking up B12 leftovers.
LikeLike
http://www.ndnation.com/boards/showpost.php?b=football;pid=86090;d=this
yup
LikeLike
Sounds like a bunch of people who have no clue that if the number of conferences shrink, the remaining conferences will make sure that they get more bids for the top bowls…
LikeLike
that is the joy that is the Nation.
LikeLike
Well, its an interesting thought, which could probably be expanded by some actual arguments for. But I doubt its right.
LikeLike
I ❤ ndnation.
LikeLike
Maybe the B10 should simply keep issuing statements that it is looking into ND as an expansion candidate simply because it seems to irritate the Domers so much. You know 2 years from now after everything settles, if JD was simply bored one afternoon, he could just tell an ESPN reporter they are studying ND as an expansion target. Then the Domer message boards could all go crazy once again.
LikeLike
unfortunately I think PETA would object to such treatment of the Nation
LikeLike
Does this guy realiz than when teams leave a conference its to join another? he he realize that you can count indipendents on one hand? This must be the son/daughter of a ND administrator. Their are probably not 10 teams/schools that could strike it big as an indipendent. And then for how long?
LikeLike
I suspect awareness is not a major component of his existence.
LikeLike
Soooo, with TX basically rebooting the B12 into a 10-school conference (IF that happens, a big IF) they won’t have a conference championship game. Would they instead have a TX-ND game that weekend? Recall that ND just canceled an Army game (2013?) because they said they no longer had an opening.
BTW, if the B12 is saved it will probably as a replacement conference and a new name (thank goodness.)
Replacing the Cornwhiners with an anuual ND game, LSN, and an immediate big pay increase seems like a win for TX.
LikeLike
AP’s Jim Vertuno in Austin UT staff is setting up for news conference
LikeLike
Man if this is the end game. Big Ten came out smelling like a rose.
The historic Big 6 look good. PSU, OSU, NEB, Iowa, Wisconsin, Mich.
I would put them up against any conference on any given year.
While Big Ten closes on SEC not only Athletically But will likely increase its lead monetarily with growth of BTN and addition of CCG.
Big 12 diminished somewhat.
PAC 10 get Utah CU and CCG which is good but not Big Ten like.
I would say that is a very successful expansion.
LikeLike
Yeah, Big Ten should easily be paying out $25M+ per year with a CCG soon, and the ABC/ESPN deal gets renegotiated in 6 years (presumably when Nebraska is a full financial partner)…
LikeLike
I can see Delany finishing the Study But this is probably over.
After Utah and some minor wrangling.
I doubt Slive has had his ego twisted to much. I don’t think he would act just to be noticed. But you never know. SEC would be smart to stay put as well.
LikeLike
Yeah, if the Big Ten is stopping at 12, I don’t see why the SEC would jump to 14 right now. Especially if Texas/A&M are hitting the brakes.
LikeLike
I would be cool if the big 12 grabbed Memphis and Louisville. Just to spice things up. Putting Franks theory to the test.
You would think the $ lost from their Championship game may be needed. Beebe doesn’t strike me as the best accountant. I don’t think UT cares much because of the LHN.
LikeLike
agree. this would be a win for Delany. the Big Ten can either decide to stay put or go into an extended evaluation stage.
the Big Ten gains considerable strength.
the Pac-10 has a modest strength gain.
the SEC, ACC, Big East hold.
the Big XII is weakened.
LikeLike
If the B12 lite remained, what if B10 then invites Mizzou? I’m sure it would be put into the agreement, but would be ironic, no? After they begged the B10.
LikeLike
Delany has stated he doesn’t want to kill a conference. that would be a kill shot. IMO.
LikeLike
100% right.
The only expansion I see on the table right now is Maryland/Rutgers. But Delany is probably fearful of setting off dominoes too much and getting the SEC up to 16 if the SEC has an opening to raid the ACC after that…
He’s probably just going to hold out for Notre Dame/Rutgers at this point. Who knows how long that could take…
LikeLike
agreed.
LikeLike
MO AD reportedly meeting with MO coaches at 4pm Central today
Kansas City sports radio
LikeLike
looks like something is brewing in the Big 12–
we may hear something this afternoon.
LikeLike
How does this set up for BCS bids. Obviously, teams rise and fall, but I’m looking at this for the next 5-6 years (after all the moves are official). Do you B12 lite typically get 1 bid only – presumably the winner of the UT/OK game? One reason for keeping the game mid-season. Allow the loser time to recover. Who takes over in the Pac 10, with USC down? Can UCLA rise to become the dominant program?
LikeLike
UCLA recruiting is going to be unbelievable this year.
LikeLike
If this is the end. I’m going to need an expansion methadone clinic.
LikeLike
this WAS my methadone clinic for Lost ending
LikeLike
I guess it is back to Hookers and Blow.
LikeLike
could be worse
LikeLike
Pat Forde: Oklahoma State regents meeting scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. Missouri AD Mike Alden meeting with his coaches in an hour
LikeLike
Why do the regents need to meet if they are not going anywhere?
LikeLike
Apologies if this has been mentioned above, I have not yet made it through to read everything just yet.
If I’m the Pac and my ultimate goal is to get Texas, above all else, I invite Kansas today (unless I have some pretty good assurance that the B12South is in fact coming and the renewed B12 plan is not happening).
The Big 12 might live on, but only if all 10 remaining schools committ to it. Yet, with the uncertainty and reality many have felt about being left out in the past few weeks, you could essentially stick a dagger in the plan by taking another B12 school. I can’t say for sure Kansas would accept, but seems like a good chance they would. Worst case scenario they only add Colorado and Kansas, opening up 2 new TV markets and adding a top 20 all-time (in wins…actually 1 behind at #21) football program, and one of the elite BB programs, if not THE elite program in the country. Alternatively, it sparks the B12 South to Pac movement, with A&M probably to SEC. It also closes any sliver of an opening that another Texas school would sub in for A&M to the PAC if A&M does indeed go to SEC. Only part I can’t figure out is if A&M can’t doesn’t go to SEC, someone would need to be left out of Pac expansion.
LikeLike
I think it would be difficult politically to invite Kansas unless K-State came along. Would it be worth it to the Pac-10?
LikeLike
I still don’t understand why A&M, for now, is rolling over and playing dead. Did ESPN lay down the law to Slive and tell him he could not invite the Aggies?
LikeLike
I’ll Tell you one thing.
No Easy Wins in Big 12 Basketball.
LikeLike
They just picked up one last week…
LikeLike
Big 12 (10) Basketball
LikeLike
I probably shouldn’t be reading five different message boards at once today.
LikeLike
The big winner in this is NEBRASKA. Can you imagine the relief they must feel as they watch their former conference mates turning into Lilliputians before their eyes, forever trapped under the thumb of the Wicked Witch of the Southwest.
And yes, Oz himself, Jim Delany, who, if he can hang onto power for the next ten years will see the Fort Knox of football, the Big Ten Network grow in stature, power and wealth.
Knock-Knock….It’s Urban Meyer concerning the Indiana job
Knock-Knock….It’s Les Miles concerning the Michigan State job
Knock-Knock….It’s Notre Dame, who says they’ll play for food.
(;
LikeLike
Well, I’ll agree that NEB. is the big winner; however, don’t see JD proving himself as a genius. BT did get seriously rebuked by ND and TX, and has pissed off potential targets Mo. and Rutgers.
LikeLike
How very true God. I just don’t see Delany as being thrilled with the way this played out and ended. He was forced into Nebraska before he was ready, and Texas and ND didn’t kiss his ring (at least not yet in ND’s case). A genius and God’s gift (sorry) he is not if this is all there is.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Nice.
LikeLike
Let’s assume the big12 does get the money Beebe is throwing around, it only means one thing: The TV contracts for the SEC and Big10 are going to go up. Maybe the market is higher now, but that only means the big2 will get bigger.
And when that happens, the big12 will go through this again.
LikeLike
yup.
the Big 12 doesn’t have equity. the Big Ten has equity in their broadcast rights and the Pac 1x will. the SEC has a good product and can demand top price without equity. turn the dial a few years and Big 12 will be showing cracks again.
LikeLike
I bet Vince Young got early word that the B12 would stay together. No wonder he was pissed.
LikeLike
LONHORNS DESTINED TO LOSE?
I think it’s becoming obvious that whatever UT decides to do that they are going to be a net loser in Expansion Double Chess.
All the UT options look to be bad ones:
Option One: Keep Big XII together. Probably not a viable option at this point, but even if accomplished the league is severely depleted without CO and UNL. With 10 teams there is no playoff, revenues will undoubtedly be lower (no mater what Mr. Beebe promises). Irony is that UT could have kept the Big XII together if it gave in just a little to UNL.
Option Two: Join Pac 10. This might be best option, but now UT will lose aTm to SEC and UNL to BT. Both will make more in TV revenue than UT! But, most importantly, now UT loses “king of the hill” status and will have to share that with the Cali schools. Less voting power, less control of content, ultimately UT power and position is compromised.
Option Three: Join Big Ten. More revenue, CIC and all the advantages that have been outlined over and over, but UT would then become just one of 13 or 14 schools and would lose the “big kid on block” status. This is UT’s ultimate fear, it’s no longer the top dog.
Option four: Go independent. High risk option (see Fighting Irish for results). Probably not practical in this age of super (or almost super) conferences.
BOTTOM LINE: The Longhorns are looking like they’re going to end up the net losers in Expansion Double Chess. Heck, even lowly, KU could end up happier in the Big East than UT (wherever UT lands).
Now that’s what I call……..Bad Karma……
LikeLike
The irony here is Option Three is great for them. Let’s see… the complaint is they could get their earnings up to $40M in the Big Ten and, if they’re as good as they’ve been historically in Football, Baseball and Basketball, they can still be Big Dogs. They’re just gonna have to fight for it and earn it. Seems like they’d rather not be (potentially) first among equals. Whole lot bully type behavior here.
LikeLike
hawkeye,
it could have been as simple as letting the Big 12 North hold a CCG every now and again! wow!
LikeLike
Duffman,
Good point! So I don’t get it, … like Big Ten Jeff says, “option three (joining the Big Ten)” is the obvious choice.
At this point I’m not so sure about the “Tech Problem.” Why? aTm is poised to go to the SEC, if UT really wants to help Tech you take the best offer and then just use to proceeds to help subsidize Tech! Plus, at this point each school is looking out for #1.
I’ll go out on a limb here guys, I still think UT to BT is a strong possibility. This was Delany’s first priority all along “southern demographics” and all.
The BT initiated conference realignment, if the BT gets locked out of Texas and the Pac AND SEC get into Texas, then the BT played it’s cards wrong….
LikeLike
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/andy_staples/06/13/expansion.sunday/index.html
Hawkeye/Gator Boy: Check this out from early. Texas seemingly isn’t an option in the short term. The Big Ten is apparently not even on the politicos’ radar. That’s pretty objective evidence about what is and isn’t an option.
[College football — and college athletics in general — will get the full attention of the higher education committee of the Texas House of Representatives on Wednesday morning. That meeting, thanks to a five-day public-notice law, will come a day after the Texas and Texas Tech boards of regents meet to discuss whether their respective schools should stay in the Big 12 or leave for the Pac-10. While some believe the regents will vote on moves Tuesday, Branch, the chair of the higher education committee, believes the schools will wait until after Wednesday’s hearing.
“To make a final decision before Wednesday,” Branch said, “would not be wise.”
Branch said the chief executives of Texas (Bill Powers), Texas A&M (R. Bowen Loftin) and Texas Tech (Guy Bailey) already have accepted their invitations to testify before the committee. Branch also hopes to have representatives from Baylor, Rice, Southern Methodist, TCU, Houston, North Texas and UTEP. Branch also has invited several economists as well as the commissioners of the Pac-10, SEC, Big 12, Mountain West and Conference USA.]
LikeLike
Big Ten Jeff,
Good find, but it’s a bit disappointing from a BT fan’s point of view.
We know that Ohio State Pres was communicating with Tex Pres Powers back in April. All the financials for UT to BT work out well. Just my opinion, but JD’s comment about “southern demographics” was geared towards TX, certainly not Nebraska.
So, if the BT walks away with UNL and the Big XII stays in tack without aTm going to the SEC, then the BT walked away with a “hr” and Texas is left out there for the BT to get another day.
But if aTm to SEC and UT to Pac 10 then I really think JD made a business error by allowing the BT’s two biggest rivals into Texas and in effect locking the BT out of TX.
Lets hope UT and the Texas legislature can somehow keep the Big XII lite alive.
LikeLike
Frankly, I think few TX fans weren’t interested in the BT because of the weather, pure and simple.
The country is moving to the south and west due to the weather. We’re asking TX to buck that trend. They have no interest in doing so.
LikeLike
Some points to ponder….
A) The Big 12 is now The Longhorn Conference
B) Can anyone explain how the following works?
10 team Big 12 (tLC) $$$$ > 12 team SEC $$$$
(especially when Nebra$ka is no longer a member)
C) If it comes to scores
Big 10 = WIN
SEC = push
PAC 11 = push (even if they get to 12 with Utah, not $$$$)
Big 12 = LOSS
ND, BE, ACC = sigh of relief (for now)
Bonus Point Question?
If A&M in SEC $$$$ > A&M in the Longhorn Conference $$$$
Then, does A&M still jump to the SEC and leave dysfunction junction?
LikeLike
Kansas City radio is really pushing this as a huge win and a Nebraska loss. Spin is in motion.
LikeLike
Spin it all they want, but Nebraska and Colorado fans are ecstatic to have escaped that disaster.
I wonder if the remaining teams are going to be required to sign their loyalty oaths in blood and sacrifice their first born children in the name of Deloss Dodds.
LikeLike
This is actually Colorado’s dream scenario. Now they have multiple trips annually to CA and west coast alum and a good travel partner (allegedly TBA) with Utah.
I agree though – Colorado and Nebrask knew that they were accepting regardless of what could potentially happen to others – so they are happy.
LikeLike
lol
they can spin all they want. they can check back in a few years and compare notes.
LikeLike
This may ultimately be decided by politicians in Texas. My guess is that, left to their own devices, A&M goes to the SEC.
LikeLike
Duffman,
I had the same exact question: How on earth can you expect to get more TV money if you don’t have Nebraska/Colorado to watch anymore? On top of that, how does A&M get a better “deal” by hanging around if the SEC offer is on the table?
I think the Pac10 benefits from having more games and a conference championship, so push is a little strong…But Big 12 is definitely weaker and the “Spin” is in full effect in an effort to keep the Big 12 together for a few more years…
LikeLike
MIRuss,
My guess is the numbers do not work, and after the Pac 10 deal is off the table the A&M folks go to the SEC.
a) they have to see the money is better
b) they have to see better national exposure
c) they have to see UT is still a control freak
d) they have to know, this is a great parting shot
my guess is stay tuned!
If this contract is so valuable how can the BTN not be worth that much more? Has delany and the Big 12 just mortally crippled the Pac 10? (remember it only has 1 “real” brand, and they are out for at least 2 – 4 years. Yeah the Pac 10 #2 may get to a NC game, but I will bet my bottom dollar that if they are facing a Big 10 or SEC opponent it will not be pretty!
🙂
LikeLike
ps.. the one thing I am getting a real understanding of is the value of “visiting” fans to large stadiums and the local economy.
Point blank, how much $$ goes to the home team (see A&M) by selling 15,000 seats with food/hotels/gas/merchandise etc add to the bottom line? I am not totally sure, but I have gotten the impression that the SEC gets HUGE value added as all the opponents travel.
Alan or bama am I seeing this correctly?
LikeLike
I’ll believe this BigXII-2 TV contract crap when I see it.
LikeLike
duffman, I think ABC/ESPN has approached Beebe with the money in order to stop Fox’s expected deal with the Pac 16 which would give Fox primary coverage of most of the schools west of the Mississippi. It is the only answer I can come up with.
LikeLike
the thing is the Pac Ten tv network likely still goes forward. ESPN, if thats who it is, saves the remaining Big 12 footprint which is still valuable in its own right. but I doubt the Pac Ten network can be stopped.
LikeLike
Agree – I don’t think the PTN could be stopped but ABC/ESPN may not want to lose so much territory to Fox and by keeping B12 in tact – they save the TX market.
I agree w/ Bamatab – that only thing that I can think of that makes any sense because conventional wisdom says there is no f’n way a diminished B12 should be on par with the SEC payouts (so soon after the SEC contract was signed).
LikeLike
As an A&M fan, all I want is for things to slow down. I don’t care what the numbers are, if the A&M administrators sign up for a TV deal that will force Aggie cable subscribers all across the state to subsidize the UT athletic department by paying a LSN fee as part of a basic or expanded basic subscrition, they wil unleash a storm that none of them will survive. If given just a few days to be heard on this subject, I think there is a good chance that TMF members will force the AD to say no to the deal.
Frankly, if I’m the AD at Tech, I’m calling up everyone with any influence in the Legislature and telling them to get A&M to walk without fear of retribution from the Legislature, as that is the only thing that’s going to prevent Tech from being locked into a conference where they are relegated to second class status by contract. Tech, and OSU, would be much better off in the Pac 10, and the only way that happens is if A&M goes to the SEC. Maybe Boone Pickens would care to chip in on the effort.
LikeLike
This is an amazing turn of events, if taken in a long-term context. If a goal of the Super Death Star Conference was to eventually get two of the three (ND, Texas, Nebraska) in route to 16, this is a phenomenal start; we have 1 left to get with 4 slots available. The true sum of events has been the following:
1) Addition of a Top-10 all time football brand at no cost or compromise to our brand;
2) Modest strengthening of the closest business partner among your rivals (Pac-10), which I believe will help in a jointly packaged BTN/PTN nationally at some point;
3) Detente with your main competition (i.e. SEC does nothing);
4) Destabilization of another major competitor (Big XII) while making them air their dirty laundry for all to see;
5) Softening of the will of your next conference targets (Regarding Rutgers, Pitt or Syracuse, the Big East knows it’s coming and can’t do anything about it);
6) Setting the table for acquisition/erosion of the will of your next targets (Despite the apparent ‘rejection’, Notre Dame Nation has NOT strengthened their resolve through this and perhaps is more split about this than ever. Once Lou Holtz starts seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, trust that a lot of other minds can be convinced and will follow. On the road to ND coming around, Maryland, Rutgers, Pitt, and Mizzou have all (some surprisingly) let us know they are there for the taking);
6a) Observed the character of potential future partners (don’t think the politics and behavior of Texas/ND on one hand and the positive signals sent by the schools in point 6 above hasn’t been noticed and filed in the memory banks of TPTB); and
7) Enhanced the stature and created more awareness of the academic and research chops and brand of the Big Ten, while increasing harmony among the members (thanks, Frank – what a wave of positive publicity the Big Ten has received!); and
8) Kept the Government out of this!
Very well played. China comes to mind in that these games are played over time, not with one fell swoop. Bottom line, we got Nebraska without any major repercussions. Who’s got next? A Rutgers/Maryland duo sounds plausible and very good to me, but only “after the study is done” (please recall the initial findings that 5 schools could be added and would significantly increase the per school take. And what about that crazy cool Forbes or Bloomberg report projecting a $3B soon to be worth for the BTN?). In the meantime, I bet other dominoes fall that only help us (Kansas to Pac-10, anyone?). Well done.
LikeLike
Agree completely; this is a total win for the B10. I don’t hold at all with the “Delaney got jobbed, out-maneuvered, or whatever” posts. By all the available evidence, the B10 announced an orderly process that was intended to examine many options from as many angles as possibles. The chaos that resulted should not obscure the fact the we got the best fit we could get at this time.
Maybe further growth will be possible later, but this was a carefully calibrated move. In 20 years the B10 has added two of the most storied college programs into their midst. Bravo!
LikeLike
Agree with both of your points.
Delany ultimately comes out looking golden for taking away 1 of the top brands of the Big 12 in a clean matter.
Pac-10 had to settle for the Pac-12 that everyone presupposed.
LikeLike
Wow… this is bad.
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/big-ten-guru/2010/06/who-joins-the-big-ten-next.html
LikeLike
Swing and a Miss.
LikeLike
Yeah… horrible analysis compared to what we get here.
LikeLike
Wow, that’s the worst analysis I’ve ever seen because it includes UCincinnati.
Can someone explain how these teams will pay for themselves?
Soon every Big Ten team will be earning $25M per year.
What schools could possibly increase the pot by that amount?
Perhaps Maryland/Rutgers maybe even a VirginiaTech/GeorgiaTech/Miami could in theory, but I don’t see many schools out there that would come close…
Unless everyone plans to take a massive haircut, more expansion is unnecessary.
Even Nebraska won’t be able to pay for a full share for itself at the beginning, so they’re going to step up to a full share as a few years pass…
LikeLike
For what it’s worth, NO ONE in Cincinnati is remotely expecting that we’d be invited to the Big Ten.
Love,
Reality
LikeLike
I expect better from the Chicago chapter of the National Organization for Women.
LikeLike
Cincinnati, why didn’t anyone here think of
that? When someone writes “Academically, the school is very solid”, what does “solid” mean?
Of course, we’re not the “Big Ten Guru”, so it might be over our heads.
LikeLike
Ken Broo (cincy sports newscaster) was on the radio discussing UC to the Big Ten. The reason…well, it’s close to a lot of Big Ten schools so it would save money for non-revenue sports. In 2 hours of calls to his radio show, this was all he was able to come up with.
LikeLike
I listen to 700 in Cincy a lot. That guy is a male bimbo, plain and simple. I’ve never heard him say anthing worthwhile.
LikeLike
Bootleg surveillance video of Dan Beebe from B12 HQ:
LikeLike
HA!
LikeLike
I think I just figured out how Beebe found a tv network to pay the Big 12-lite enough money to get to the report $17-$20m per team. I think ABC/ESPN has gone to Beebe and offered him the deal in order to sink Fox’s expected deal with the Pac 16. Jackie Sherrill just mentioned that this could be what is happening on the Paul Finebaum show. That actually makes some sense. I don’t know how they can dish out all of this money to the SEC, Big 10, ACC, plus what they are still paying the Pac 10. But that is the only reason that a network would take a chance on paying out this kind of money on the Big 12-lite.
LikeLike
Maybe they’ve heard that ND is joining the Big 12. I hear they ave an opening or 2.
LikeLike
Maybe ABC/ESPN just doesn’t want Fox to control basically everything out west (which would now include UT & OU if the Pac 16 deal went through). I may be grabbing at straws, but it’s the only thing I can figure. I just can’t see any other way that Beebe suddenly came across a network willing to fork out that kind of money for a conference that is as unstable has the Big 12-lite appears will be.
LikeLike
You are right and wrong. It is likely that ESPN is saving the B12 with a Big Check.
The new B12-2 will not be unstable. My guess is that the big players — TX, OK, A&M, OK State are not going to accept livin’ on the edge. Kansas, K State, Iowa State (I think they still get a vote), Tech, and Baylor don’t want the uncertainty, either. It is likely that the B12 will come to some sort of “global” settlement that solidifies revenue disbursement and conference governance — as well as possible expansion. Such a settlement will likely include some draconian departure penalties.
I think Mizzou would still bolt the conference for the B10+2 in a minute. But, their window will close once a new conference arrangement takes place — think something like the BEast’s 27 month wait, and forfeiture of revenue sharing for the duration.
In sum, the conference will take steps to lock in its members.
LikeLike
I agree.
And the Big 12 has lost the only national brand outside of Texas/Oklahoma.
That means there’s no real peripheral player that could bolt and upset the wagon anymore.
Kansas/Kansas State/Missouri/Iowa State/Baylor will toe the line…
LikeLike
Could be TBS (or another Time Warner network) that put a package together with multiple networks. Could also be NBC around the notion that pairing Big 12 games with ND makes sense and then they could run other games on USA Networks.
USA Networks could be the network of Big 12 football and WWE!
LikeLike
I expect to see ND, and if they were to add the Big XII on Versus with the purchase of NBC in the works.
LikeLike
Now all you have to do is figure out why ISU, Kansas, Kansas St, Missouri, Okie State and Baylor would accept this deal.
How are these programs not better off competing in the MWC?
LikeLike
Because they would be in an automatic bid conference getting paid $17m-$20m per school?
LikeLike
Because they would be in an automatic bid conference getting paid $17m-$20m per school?
If I understand correctly, they are at $14MM. Which might look pretty good now, but might look like crap in 5 years after the Pac-10, Big Ten, and MWC get done advancing their TV Network empires.
In three years there is a really good chance the MWC has their BCS bid and the ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12 conspire to shove it up the Big 12s rear end the next round of BCS negotiations.
LikeLike
Would you rather live in the Donald Trump’s guest house or a beaten-up trailer in the middle of a desert?
LikeLike
Not saying the Neo-B12 is a done deal, but if it is and at the money they’re talking about, AR switching isn’t now inconceivable.
Goodness I hope not, let the SECheats keep Fayettenam.
LikeLike
I still think it’s near inconceivable; after all, why leave the stability of the SEC for the Big 12’s patch job?
Stability is worth more than $3M (if that’s the difference between say A&M/OU and Arkansas) in the scheme of things…
Maybe not today, but someone’s going to make another landgrab at Texas someday…
LikeLike
If a reconstituted B12 is possible, no matter how it’s propped up, how is this sold to the public? I mean, isn’t this just rank capitulation, even on the part of UT? DeLoss Dodds is widely respected, and for good reason, but can even the $$$ justify this? Shall we start taking bets on the long term viability of this
“conference” (I give it 4-5 years max.)?
Sorry about getting worked up with the rhetorical questions, but this looks to me like the textbook case of UT letting the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Someone please tell me how I’m wrong.
LikeLike
Arkansas isn’t leaving the SEC anytime soon.
Like others have said, if the Pac 10 invites KU or the Big 10 invites Missouri, the Big 12 is dead. I don’t see a scenario actually happening that saves the Big 12. If there is one, it will be a short lived save in my opinion.
LikeLike
The new Big 12 should invite Nebraska. It has a lot of advantages:
1. Borders states in the conference.
2. Strong ties with some schools in the conference.
3. Would bring national brand to the conference at a time when it needs more national brands.
4. Puts B10 on defensive and SEC on notice.
I think it has real potential.
LikeLike
LMAO!!!
LikeLike
b10e,
here is the loser, the Pac 12 is about to enter contract time with its cash cow on double secret probation (see also U$$$$C). You are negotiating for a tv contract where your CCG game could be Cal vs Utah (with the winner having a shot at the NC game). Is it just me of do I see “meh” when it comes to TV $$$$ and ratings?
LikeLike
Look the whole problem with the Pac 10 is that it is on the west coast and in a crappy timezone. It has some good teams, good games, rich history, blah, blah, blah. After watching 8-12 hours of football, including 2-3 B10 games, a few SEC games and a B12 game – I’m tired of football and want to watch something else. Frankly, the Pac-10’s most viewable games is one where one team is from the midwest, and it doesn’t look that interesting for a while. And if I lived on the West coast during the fall, I bet I could find something better to do on a saturday anyway. The timezone is an interest killer and one reason why I never thought Texas joining the Pac 10 was a good idea. Sure, you may watch a game while at a bar, or at a party, but for most people on Saturday, there comes a point where you had your fill of college football for the day.
LikeLike
they still have viewership in their markets, after all Cubs and Mets fans still tune in. and they can start work on the network.
in some ways they are the anti Big 12 in this. the Big 12 is grabbing a more expedient and short term profitable deal that contains potential long term problems. The Pac 1x has the potential for a near term hit but can continue on a path that will set them up on a better longer term path. What does Delany keep saying about this being about the next 50-100 years?
LikeLike
Yes, but only in their market. The B10 and SEC succeed because they own their markets, but also have interest in other markets. The Pac 10 doesn’t. And part of the reason they don’t is because the timezone. There are many other reasons, but timezone matters.
LikeLike
Did anyone else here this? It was posted on one of the Colorado boards:
“I was listening to Jackie Sherrill(former coach and TA&M AD) in a radio interview just a bit ago, and he said that ESPN is behind this new tv deal that Beebe seemed to pull out of nowhere. Now I didn’t stick around to hear him elaborate on whether he knew that for sure, or he was speculating, but his reasoning made sense.
ESPN did not want the Texas schools going to the Pac 16, and to their own network, which most likely would involve Fox as a partner. It’d be cutting ESPN out of the Texas market, and they might not have gotten them back.
So, ESPN may be involved here and throwing a huge number at Texas, because it’s better business for them to keep them out of the Pac 16 and that network.
Remember that’s one of the reasons the ESPN SEC deal is so huge, because they were thinking about starting their own network like the Big 10, and ESPN had to pay them comparable money to talk them out of it.”
I know we’ve speculated on this, just wonder if anyone can confirm it.
LikeLike
I heard Coach Sherrill on Finebaum. That is basically what he said. It’s the only thing that makes sense as far as a tv contract that big.
LikeLike
KC radio is reporting the same. Also have suggested the big12 is going to go after ND.
LikeLike
If it ends here, look at how the various conferences got up to 12:
Big Ten- added Nebraska and Penn State
ACC- added Miami, Virginia Tech, BC
SEC- added South Carolina and Arkansas
Pac- added Colorado (and presumably Utah)
Big 8- added Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, A&M…
That’s roughly the order I would rank the additions as well. (The Big 8 additions might be higher, except for the whole conference killing thingy).
LikeLike
Interesting. Looking back on it you may be tempted to say that SEC added two very mediocre teams. But that addition allowed them to stage a CCG – which has really only worked for them becauase (a) the divisions made geographic sense (unlike ACC) and (b) they remained for the most part competitively balanced (unlike B12). And that CCG with balanced divisions allowed the SEC to build its overall brand as the top football conference. Plus there really were no other reasonable schools to add at the time, unless they somehow could have gotten UT or A&M. A case where the sum was greater than the individual parts. For the ACC, I’d say it was the reverse.
LikeLike
Yeah, I fear the Pac-10 thinks it can copy the SEC’s expansion and get a winner.
But the Pac-10 is nowhere near as deep as the SEC at the top, and with USC in tatters, it means that the Pac-12 is likely to turn into an ACC for the next couple of years, meaning uninteresting CCGs that can’t sell to anywhere near capacity…
Until years pass, I would still give the SEC the edge on expansion for the same reasons you do.
I wouldn’t rank them yet either though because although the ACC has flopped and the SEC has been successful in part due to their respective expansions, we have no idea what the value of Nebraska will be to the Big Ten or what the value of Colorado/Utah will be to the Pac-10.
Let’s see a few CCGs before comparing…
LikeLike
M,
I might have it look like this
B 10 UNL,PSU
blank
blank
blank
blank
SEC USC, UA (done a decade earlier, adjusted)
ACC UM,VT,BC (still not selling out stadiums)
blank
P 10 GU,UT (if 11+1=13, then 10+2=9) *WEG*
Big 12 UT,A&M,TT,BU (should have been home run)
now just an epic fail, no matter what happens short term
LikeLike
@duffman
The thing to keep in mind about the ACC is what it was before the expansion. Before adding those teams (and probably should include FSU from 1991) the ACC was absolutely nothing in football. Competitively they were the worst major conference if they could even be labelled as such and had no marquee football programs of any sort. Afterwards, they aren’t the best but are certainly better than the Big East and arguably better than the Pac-10. I would argue that no conference has had a great an upswing in football relevance than the ACC.
LikeLike
Delany is Batting a thousand that is for sure.
LikeLike
Thank god Delany is doing the opposite of whatever this guy says: http://www.freep.com/article/20100612/COL08/6120316/1089/Col08/Lets-wait-for-Texas-to-revel-in-Big-Ten-expansion
LikeLike
Yeah, and I’m glad he didn’t listen to this as well: http://www.freep.com/article/20100607/COL08/6070329/1089/Col08/Big-Ten-will-rue-the-day-if-it-cant-expand-quickly
LikeLike
this guy is an idiot..
“The Cornhuskers are not the “home run” Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany desired in expansion. They’re a single caught at second trying to stretch it into a double.”
I think Nebraska is an out of the park home run, but maybe I am biased. I thought they made so much sense early. ND or UT minus the Ego’s!
well played.
LikeLike
sorry,
that quote was supposed to tie to the first article.
LikeLike
This guy has a shallow knowledge of the Big ten. I suppose he’s an SEC sports writer in his spare time. If he had more knowledge he would understand that when the Big Ten compromises a little on academics it not the same as when the SEC compromises a little on academics.
LikeLike
Yeah, I agree with you completely.
This expansion will be as successful as the Penn State expansion.
Once we start having CCGs in Indianapolis, everything should be looking up.
Not to mention no more Big 12 CCGs in Cowboy Stadium, lol.
LikeLike
Chip on ESPN said River River could move to DEC. at Jerra Dome.
LikeLike
Nebraska IS a home run. I hope its a one and done with NE. Every time I think of Notre Dame and Texas to the Big 10, I hear the Kingston Trio singing ‘Lemon Tree’.
My compliments to duffman, zeek, HH, m(Ag) for great info and super analysis.
On Flag Day, thankyou to all the veterans and their families who have made possible, this, at times mindless, escapade.
LikeLike
No way Nebraska is a “home run” Duff.
Compare to PSU — 1/2 as many enrolled, in a state of 2M(?) v. one of 12M(?). 7000 fewer students than Iowa, 30000 less than OSU. Last in BT in academic ranking..bottom 2 or 3 in research.
PSU was the total package. Neb is 1/2 the total package. I’ll give them 1 extra base for being such a great fit…so we’ll call it a generous triple.
LikeLike
He raises a point which has me arguing that the B10 should not go with a CCG. It just looks like you are doing it because everyone else does. 12 teams, CCG. Why not give every team an extra game against a B10 opponent. Create more content and more opportunities to have games that capture interest – PSU v. Neb, etc. I’d rather see B10 be forward thinking rather than following the herd. I’m sure I’m in the minority, but the guy’s point is valid. If by adding Neb, all the B10 does is stage a CCG, it just looks like they did something the other conferences did a while ago.
Be bold – be different. The only way to really claim the best conference mantle is to (1) wind National Titles, and (2) have better bowl record. Having another strong national power helps with the former. Doesn’t playing an extra game in December help with the latter?
LikeLike
Nominally I’d agree, but if the plan is for the BigTen and the Pac to go to 16 teams with each champion going to the Rose Bowl those two conferences would in effect be setting up their own “playoff system” and cutting the SEC, ACC, and BigEast out of the picture in the process.
How’s that for forward thinking?
LikeLike
This is directed at both of your comments, but can’t we do both?
Why not go to 9 game conference scheduling?
LikeLike
Its possible but I think you’ll see push-back from the PSU/OSU/UoM/Neb of the world since those OoC games (even against the “rent-a-wins” are huge money makers for the home team.
The 9 game conference schedule will happen if it can be shown to give more money than those home OoC games IMO.
LikeLike
Also, from what I understand those OoC games are not shared (revenue wise) with the conference.
I guess its incentive for the schools to field competitive football programs.
LikeLike
Yeah, that’s true. We’ll have to see how it plays out.
I’d imagine we don’t see 9 conference games until the Big Ten is at 14 members so 6 games in division and 3 in the other (one permanent rival or something).
12 schools is easily doable with 5 games in one division and 3 crossover (one permanent rival again).
LikeLike
Yeah, PSUGuy.
My understanding is that gate sharing is for the 8 conference games…
LikeLike
I think we need another game after the Rose bowl. This still only settles things between to conferences. And this is giving that the best of the two CCG winners actually won.
LikeLike
NCAA has to approve.
LikeLike
I keep hearing this argument and I keep discounting it. Whatever the NCAA rules are regarding games/CCG/divisions, they can and should be changed. The NCAA does not control the FBS college football. Its rules on scholarships, recruiting, and eligibility make sense. Its rule on must have divisions to have CCG makes zero sense. In basketball conferences determine their champions in many different ways. The NCAA has a direct and obvious outcome in that. In football it does not. So that will not affect how a conference wants to do things.
LikeLike
Only if Drew Sharpe could move conferences.
LikeLike
B10 expansion is still about money. Why would the BTN and Fox (a profit making entity) want to stop now? It is time to look east for undervalued assets. ESPN’s increased payouts to TX and its little sisters means the financial gap of B10 membership is smaller. The ACC got a new ESPN deal. So a B10 offer now looks less valuable to ACC schools.
The usual suspects from the BE remain in play. Delany should move on them now. If Rutgers/Pitt/’Cuse and ND are valuable to the B10, then why wait? I suspect Fox, and probably the Presidents expect Delany to stay aggressive.
LikeLike
Your handle gives away the answer.
LikeLike
they got Nebraska by letting the situation simmer. same straegy probably continues to work. take your time and let things develop. to use a baseball analogy you don’t hit homeruns off good pitches, you hit them off mistakes. the ultimatum to Nebraska was a mistake. wait for mistakes. they will come.
LikeLike
as a Michigan fan I would like to point out the consistent silliness printed by various Detroit Free Press hacks on this issue. Just keep this in mind in the future when you read further silliness from those clowns.
LikeLike
sorry the above was supposed to be attached to the sub thread about Drew Sharp’s article in the Freep
LikeLike
To be fair, I don’t think Sharp was advocating anything diffently than a lot of other were advocating on this blog. A lot of commenters do not feel like Neb is a home run. And a lot of people were arguing for the B10 to make silly moves, like take Mizzou, not because they liked the school, but because they saw it as a domino that would start something else.
Right now, the B10 is looking great. Ten years from now, we may think differently. But as good as Texas looked to a lot of us for a while. It is clear that they come with serious baggage. And ND comes with alums who would be arguing for succession the minute they joined. Yes, I’d like for both schools to join, but they bring a lot of headaches.
LikeLike
BYU and Air Force to get it back to 12. This annoying nonsense is pretty much set.
LikeLike
https://twitter.com/1049TheHorn
Looks like Big12 will be back to 12. BYU and Air Force will be invited to replace NU and CU by Wed. Texas/Okla schools are all on board. 12 minutes ago via web
LikeLike
Well that was awkward.
I wonder how Boise St. feels about that
LikeLike
IF true, Boise St accepts just in time to see the conference fall apart.
LikeLike
12 does make sense. Whoever put up the funds would probably want to televise a championship game,
LikeLike
I’ll believe Air Force to the Big Whatever when I see them sign. They, I believe, have stated a preference for the Mountain West. BYU, on the other hand, will be begging.
LikeLike
BYU, but not making the play for Utah is interesting. Not knocking BYU by any means as they are a good, undervalued pick. It’s interesting though as picking Utah could let the Big 12 gum up the Pac’s ability to grow to 12.
LikeLike
http://twitter.com/1049TheHorn
Looks like Big12 will be back to 12. BYU and Air Force will be invited to replace NU and CU by Wed. Texas/Okla schools are all on board.
LikeLike
Soooo…If current rumors hold (hahaha) then Utah to the Pac, BYU and AF to the B12, Boise St to the MWC w/ Blank, and Blank.
Pick 2:
Houston, SMU, Fresno St, UTEP, Tulsa, Rice, Nevada, Hawaii.
Hmmmmm…either that or ESPN just killed the MWC.
LikeLike
If Utah joins the Pac as expected….there is just no real good way to handle the divisions.
LikeLike
Pac-12 North: Washington/Washington State/Oregon/Oregon State/Utah/Colorado
Pac-12 South: Cal/Stanford/UCLA/USC/Arizona/Arizona State
LikeLike
Although, how do Cal/Stanford feel about Arizona/Arizona State?
Could do East/West
Pac-10 West: Washington/Washington State/Cal/Stanford/UCLA/USC
Pac-10 East: Oregon/Oregon State/Colorado/Utah/Arizona/Arizona State
Either way, it will end up as messy as ours since Delany seems to be saying he wants competitive fit as the top criteria…
LikeLike
The coming division alignments is where the Big Ten expansion plans could blow a tire.
LikeLike
Not sure the NW schools would like to do anything that diminishes their trips to Cal (specifically SoCal). I guess it can be done if they kept a 9 game conference sked…but the coaches already hate playing 9 when everyone else gets to play 8.
I always though a zipper would be the way they would need to go with a protected rivalry game but I hear many complain about the ACC set up and it doesnt set up nicely if you end up with a CCG that is identical to rivalry week.
LikeLike
P12 could decide not to have fixed, permanent divisions. They could group the schools as pairs: Cal/Stan, Utah/Col, ASU/AZ, UCLA/USC, OR/OSU, WA/WSU. To form two divisions, group 3 pairs together on a rotating 2 year basis.
LikeLike
This is so true and under-appreciated. The SEC works because its divisions are balanced and make geographic sense. The ACC’s zipper is a mess. The Big XII was not balanced. The Pac has one recruiting hotbed in SoCal. There is just no good way to organize a Pac12. Personally, I’d love a 12 team round robin, but I’m probably all alone on that one.
LikeLike
I think the best method is the “zipper”, where you split the rivals into different divisions and keep the rivalry game as an interdivisional game.
LikeLike
It may be the most fair solution, but I can guarantee you that some members will absolutely hate it. First of all, it will run into ACC-style problems where it will make it hard for casual fans to follow who’s where in the standings. Second, Stanford will not want to give up annual games against UCLA and USC. Why would it want the CA schools split up? The zipper may be the least awful solution, but it is still very, very awful.
LikeLike
How do you do that in such a way that isn’t contentious?
LikeLike
Washington would definitely have the easiest road with the rivalry zipper….if that is what you are getting at.
With a zipper I can see the complaints already though…like I said – no real easy way.
Maybe the best would be splitting the CA schools up w/ Stan and Cal on one side w/ USC/UCLA on the other – that won’t go without complaints either though.
LikeLike
Easy. WA/OR/New schools in N, CA/AZ in South. 5/2/2 schedule. WA/OR schools get 1 every year rivalry vs. Bay area schools, 1 vs. LA schools. So they get 3 games every year vs. CA schools, not much different than with the 8 game schedule they had until last year. Everyone gets each team at least every other year.
LikeLike
Some updates from mgoblog.com (Michigan sports blog) at
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/unverified-voracity-says-die-acc-die
I spoke to my former colleague who now lives in Chicago over the weekend and got a little bit of a window into what is latest strategy from the B10.
Note: This is about as unverified as “voracity” goes. I don’t have the means to independently verify anything and am actually hoping this post might or might not jive with what Brian has been hearing and that would provide some clarity on this.
As of EOB Friday, the UT to B10 scenario looks as bleaks as it gets. UT does not want to move to B10 without bringing someone “who will be strongly in their corner in the B10”. The B10 presidents (not all but a solid bloc of 4 to be precise) have laid down the law to Delany that no more non-UT B12 members are welcome. This includes A&M, not that they even want to come here in any case. Key point to note is that unlike what we have been hearing from MSM, the Texas legislature is the least of the problem here. They are actually not in the picture at all. The talks between B10 and UT have been bitter at points and this has led some of the presidents to take a hard line on them as they feel if they give in too much to accomodate UT they will always be a demanding/disharmonious member and the B10 just does not need that kind of headache. In short, EFF EM.
Given this bleak picture, the dominant view in the B10 is to look elsewhere and leave the B12 the hell alone (apart from what is done of course). Two presidents who have been sort of “helping” in the vetting process, have come up with two names I have not seen mentioned at all until now. Boston College and Georgia Tech. Delany immediately replied saying both have actually vetted by us already (as in we checked them out, they made no moves whatsoever to initiate it) and low intensity conversations did happen. Jim’s point of view is that both would be acceptable fit’s but he prefers BC and expects that they would be a easier+better get. Couple of reasons for this:
1. GT is insisting on (ala UT) that they get to bring at least one of the buddies along to provide some voice in their corner.
2. BC is also of a similar view but has said that they might be open to waive that requirement if ND were to be a part of the conference when they join.
Neither of these are particularly likely to happen or at least in a short time frame since the farthest things have gotten with ND is talking extensively about a semi-conference member sort of wierd arrangement. It would go something like this:
ND would get to retain their “independent” status but would commit to playing 7 B10 opponents every year (3 of those being in SB). They would agree in principle to come under the B10 TV contract within a reasonable time frame (as in not immediately but within a given amount of years that is TBD).
My buddy says there is virtually no talk at all about any Big East member anymore and he isnt exactly privy to the inner sanctum of negotitations to know if this is because we have lost interest or if the talks have progressed to such an extent that absolute need to know basis only has been declared.
LikeLike
I don’t see it.
Look at that press conference at Nebraska last week.
That was perfectly harmonious in terms of a school entering the Big Ten.
He kept speaking of geographical fit, institutional fit, AAU, etc. He also handled questions on how the Big Ten does things by consensus, and he really seemed to stress the implication that no one gets special deals etc.
I just don’t see him expanding until Notre Dame is willing to come to the table and being an equal partner. I’d imagine the same is true of Texas. After seeing the disaster that is the Big 12 in action during the past 4 weeks, I’m sure anyone pushing Texas would want to be sure that they come in the same way that Nebraska did.
LikeLike
And just how badly do we want to destroy the institutional fit of the conference?
Maryland, UVA, Rutgers are all schools that look like Big Ten schools in well located markets, etc.
Obviously, we’d accept Notre Dame any time it wanted to come, but I really think Delany is putting away the expansion push.
This chapter of the great game is over.
LikeLike
Except for the parts where he took shots at the other school his new conference is looking to woo.
LikeLike
To be fair, Texas deserved some of those comments.
And now that they’re saving the Big 12, the comments look somewhat prescient.
LikeLike
I hear you but for what its worth MGoBlog is pretty good. not prone to saying wild stuff.
LikeLike
GeorgiaTech is a good fit in every way except geography and what % of its market it brings, but we have been hearing some wild rumors out there.
I mean yea, if Notre Dame demanded it, we’d probably add both Boston College and Notre Dame.
I’m just saying that neither really would make sense in light of the Nebraska press conference.
LikeLike
Good post, Cutter, and the chatter about UT is consistent with what I’ve heard elsewhere (and good news as far as I’m concerned), although the talk of BC and/or GT is news…
LikeLike
Interesting but I see both teams as extreme outliers. hence will they be happy over the long run? GT will exist in the midst of two major conferences. And BT way up in the North East and private, would they feel a part of the mix? I feel like these teams may not bring the kind of baggage Texas or ND would but I see them as being week links to the conference and targets for poaching some day. Maryland, Mizzu and Syracuse still feel better for the reasons I have mentioned.
LikeLike
I meant BC Boston College
LikeLike
Believe the response to Texas.
Don’t buy any serious consideration sent to BC. Due diligence? Sure. Other than that, I just don’t see it.
GT, I could certainly see though I have no clue who they might consider a “partner” to brought with. In the end, this strikes me as another “due diligence” school.
The interesting thing is the no BigEast schools being mentioned. Personally, I don’t buy it. There are several schools that fit the BigTen profile and look to add significantly to the BTN.
The thing most of interest to me though is the current BigEast tv contract…if I did the gorilla math right the contract’s last year is 2013. If the BigTen made another round of expansion in the Jan-June 2011 timeframe the BigEast teams would be finishing out their BigEast contract and sliding into the BigTen just as it is entering negotiations (or close enough I guess) for its new deal.
Just like the Big12…
LikeLike
PSUGuy, So then Delany declares expansion again and takes a Big East team, possibly in conjuction with ND and the BE is spinning again.
LikeLike
Technically I’ve never heard the BigTen say they were done with expansion.
I heard Delany say they were going to focus on integrating Nebraska and a very clipped response of non-committal to the question if expansion was done at the Nebraska press conference.
IMO, they are going to let the Pac do its thing for the short term future and go from there.
LikeLike
Note the discussion about the national ND schedule somewhere above. BC and GT are frequently on ND schedule.
LikeLike
Thanks, Cutter.
I can see a school like Georgia Tech wanting a regional partner, whether for academic reasons, diminished travel costs, rivalries, etc. But wanting to bring in ringers to affect future voting should be a non-starter. The idea of the Big Ten is supposed to be an “all for one, one for all” sort of approach. If joining a better academic and sports conference isn’t enough and if $25 million or more isn’t enough, the BT should move on.
As for this accommodation for Notre Dame, they should not have 7 games if the BT schools have 8 (or 9 if you ask Alvarez), unless that is a short-term deal like Penn State got.
It’s too bad things couldn’t have worked out in Texas for the Big Ten, but the Big Ten has to be pleased to have Nebraska, (who, in turn, should be ecstatic to get away from Texas). Getting to 12 is a big deal, and we couldn’t have asked for a better partner. Let’s not screw that up with bringing in schools who are already trying to manipulate the conference or make special deals.
LikeLike
I find it hard to believe that the Big 10 wouldn’t take A&M. AAU member, better academics than several Big 10 schools, huge market, one of the biggest enrollments in the country. It could be argued that A&M has a better profile than Nebraska, and would almost certainly bring in more money than the Huskers.
LikeLike
Maybe it’s a cultural fit issue.
LikeLike
From looking at some of the Aggie boards, I agree. (Their rantings about Northern liberals and our “values.”)
LikeLike
Personally, I think Maryland & Virginia are more attractive than GTech (which is probably the least attractive of the elgible ACC schools because they have trouble commanding their own city). BC makes little sense. I can see the BE talk dying down, as Rutgers is the only one that’s somewhat attractive (all the others have major flaws), and even Rutger’s athletic brand is weak.
Not sure why the Big10 would object to GTech bringing over a friend (as any academically qualified ACC friend would be more attractive).
LikeLike
@cutter – mgoblog is pretty good about not getting swept up in crazy expansion stories (including a lot of skepticism about what I’ve written). The ND scenario is in line with what PBC has written on Northwestern boards. I have no idea where BC and GT get off making many demands, though. Texas is one thing to a certain point because they move the needle so much. BC/ND or GT/Miami combos make the most sense (yes, I know I like the thought of adding Miami a lot more than others).
LikeLike
FINALLY, another MIAMI advocate. How about a third?…Anyone?
I also think MgoBlog is fairly legit. I can see ND and BC wanting to be in cahoots. I’m surprised BC hasn’t been mentioned more often. I realize they have a lot of colleges in the area of with all the irish in Beantown you would think they would be the ideal partner with ND.
LikeLike
My preference would be to stay at 12 and split the divisions down the Indiana-Illinois line. But if they have to go to 14, I would love the next two to be Miami and GT.
LikeLike
I actually think the ND scenerio has some potential. Agree to play 7 BT teams, stay independent, get limited exposure on the BT network.
A contractural arrangement like this could turn out, in effect, to be something of a trial ballon for BT membership
In the long-run, the SEC is the common villion…ND’s not going anywhere…why not have a decent/special relationship with it?
LikeLike
As a Maryland alum, I’m all for the invite (and move) but I’d want to come with UVA. It’ll be awkward enough playing an ACC lax schedule and it’ll be nice to have some familiar faces and close road trips in the mix.
LikeLike
Also the other Terps I’ve talked to aren’t too excited about joining if Rutgers or Mizzou are already in. This might be where the east coast/mid-west cultural divide comes into play.
I’ve love to see UMD/UVA/Duke/UNC be the ones to take it to 16 and form east/west divisions.
Who knows? If nothing else, it’s just nice to be thought of.
LikeLike
Maryland and UVA would both be great additions to the Big Ten. I’d take them both. The issue is that you’re already in a pretty darn good conference.
I don’t know what the issue with Rutgers would be though. Mizzou I can understand, but I’d think the Terps would want another school in a state that borders the Atlantic.
LikeLike
A significant portion of the UMD student body is imported from NJ and NY. I imagine it would strike up some a pretty heated rivalry for those students but the rest of us are a little tired of Jersey.
LikeLike
terps,
you guys would be great, my plan was SEC got VT, A&M, UNC, NCSTATE
B 10 got you guys, UVA, Rutgers, and ND (lets your basketball get out from under UNC / dook
LikeLike
Ever spent any time in Jersey?? As an outsider, you’d understand… Rutgers is soooooo overrated…
LikeLike
very interesting
LikeLike
The private jet owned by former Oregon AD Pat Kilkenny landed at Buchanan Field in Concord, CA at 2:19pm Pacific Time.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N228PK
The pilot again requested a change in flight plan in mid-flight, switching from Stockton (SCK) to Concord (CCR) as the landing airport.
Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott presumably was on board.
LikeLike
Question for the bloggers? Where can you find out what the BTN market penetration is? I guess I don’t really want to look at, but I’m curious as to how prevalent it is on cable/DirectTV? Obviously, ESPN is on all tiers for all cable outlets (or basically all), and this is what the BTN aspires to. I bring this up, because we keep talking about the fact that Rutgers would bring X amount of subscriptions, etc. What if the BTN can get there without bringing along Rutgers? Also, what is the vesting rights for the B10 in terms of equity stake in the BTN.
These are all variables, we either aren’t privy to, or we just don’t know and haven’t seen analyzed. But the B10 has. It could very well make sense for them to wait a few years to see what penetration they can make without diluting their share and/or brand. I know Patrick did a quick analysis a few posts back.
I guess this is a way for me to rationalize the argument that now is the time for the B10 to just step back and say, while we are not actively looking to expand further, we will explore certain options as things develop. Basically starting a cooling off period.
LikeLike
I have no numbers for you SH. The way that there has been so much talk about Rutgers, I believe that the Big Ten must believe that Rutgers can more safely deliver NY/NJ than Syracuse can deliver even western NY.
LikeLike
You hit on something I don’t think I’ve ever considered…what is the deal with the BTN and DirectTV/satellite providers?
How does the DirectTV deal pay out? Right now, the BTN is on the lowest tier of DirecTV, meaning its national. Does having strong local demographics effect those payouts or is that strictly for cable tv monies?
Anyone? Bueller? Bueller? Bueller?
LikeLike
The Big Ten could not get NY Market penetration on basic cable without Nebraska even with the strength of PSU. Adding Nebraska will not do it either. The Penumbra effect would do it. After all this since December I seriously doubt the Big Ten is done by just adding Nebraska. If this is Delany’s big expansion move I am underwelmed. Given the analysis put forth by Frank and others like Patrick concerning the big upside of expanding the Big Ten Network footprint and the financial windfall that comes with it, this just does not seem to be the end yet. I believe Delany and Co. have a bigger plan and will not leave all that BTN future money on the table. This seems expansion seems incomplete. I know I am not the only one saying “Is that all there is? After all this? Just Nebraska?”
LikeLike
The Big Ten Network is included in all DirecTV packages nationwide and in all but the cheapest Dish Network packages. So that means that already at least 20% of the households nationwide get the Big Ten Network, plus all the households in the Big Ten footprint, which is also about 20% of the US population. Now there’s some overlap there so it’s not at 40%, but a rough guess would be about 1/3 of the country gets the Big Ten Network.
Every Cornhusker fan in the nation will either switch to satellite or add the sports tier on their cable package to get the UNL games. That’s the one thing that the Huskers bring–they’re nuts about the Cornhuskers.
LikeLike
You have to say TX is a big winner in this. They got:
+ Big payout increase.
+ Leveraged B10+’s actions into renegotiating their contract 5 years early.
+ Got everyone in conference a pay increase 5 years early.
+ Keep their LSN.
+ Confirmed they have huge leverage over the P10 with the concession they gave (Tech and OK St!)
+ Which gives them a very high floor from which to negotiate if super conferences emerge later. P11 doesn’t have other options to 16 and isn’t going anywhere.
+ Replace PITA Cornwhiners with BYU, which is an actual increase in strength of schedule, while AF over CO is a wash to net gain.
+ Keeps the SEC out of Texas.
+ Keeps the state politicians happy, perhaps even increasing their goodwill chips.
+ Sets up for more balance with at least 5 12-school BCS conferences, which
+ Sets the stage for some form of playoff in the next round of BCS negotiations. More on that later.
Other big winners: B10+, NE, CO, BYU, AF, and probably Utah.
LikeLike
Whether AF/BYU additions are true, there is no way replacing Neb with BYU can be considered a +.
But your other points have some validity.
One big negative is the conference is now “perceived” to be worse. This may not be the case, but perception is reality. Just like the BE fans are always giving some statistics to show they aren’t as bad as people think. In the end, it doesn’t matter. They are perceived as a weak conference. It is tough to shake those perceptions. One wonders if this is how the B12 lite will be perceived.
LikeLike
I think Neb and the big10 won as well. Long term, the big12-2 has less national appeal. Texas wins, but the conference loses.
LikeLike
Records forthe last 5 years, reverse order:
NE === BYU
10-4….11-2
9-4….10-3
5-7….11-2
9-5….11-2
8-4….6-6
==========
41-24….49-15
LikeLike
Well its settled then.
instead of 5 years maybe top 5 of all time would be a better judgement of future returns.
LikeLike
All you have to do is compare the Big Ten to their competitors .
Big 12 not as good athletically, stronger in cash flow.
PAC 10 Stronger athletically (not counting usc) stronger cash flow.
SEC status quo. But Big 10 makes gains on them athletically and cash flow wise.
Big 10 gains athletically on all conferences and keeps its leading status as breadwinner.
Big 10 is the big winner IMO.
LikeLike
Also, isn’t Neb 14th in the DC standings? Neb’s a HR in athletics, no doubt about it.
LikeLike
Sorry, nothing existed more than five years ago.
Sincerely,
Rutgers
LikeLike
This is good that they dominated their conference. Worthy of a move up. Still yet compareing them to Nebraska? They did not play Nebraska, or Oklahoma or Texas or Texas A&M, or Tech on a reguar basis.
LikeLike
Good to know that Boise State is every bit the equal of UT. Records past 5 years, 58-8 for both schools.
LikeLike
Over the last 5 years, ND is 35-27.
LikeLike
I dont think Texas is a the bigger winner by an plan of action. In any scenario besides the SEC texas comes out a winner. remember not everyone wants their LSN, they go back to the Big XII which the own and were ready to abandon before things got sticy in two deals. (score here)> NBC over pays ND and they will get overpayed for the Big XII. The confrence they stay in if they stay is Minus Nebraska and Colorado.
LikeLike
without knowing the details I think Texas took a short term, several years, improvement at the cost of investing in a longer term improved situation.
the LSN will not get first rights to football and basketball so while it will have appeal the revenue value according to the numbers that have been floated are $3-5 million. a decent number to be sure but not a game changer.
there has been a lot of discussion about the BTN and whether other conferences opt for their own network. the value of the conference network is not merely the broadcast rights but that they have an equity stake and own the product. its no different than in other fields of entertainment. there is a difference between just taking a pay day for your work or owning a piece of the ‘back end’. equity in other words. the real money is in owning equity.
Texas is going to get a good deal in the short term with whatever new package s put in place. but they aren’t getting equity. they could have started the process of biuilding a real network with serious revenue potential. and it didn’t have to be with the Big Ten on an equal share basis. it could have been with the Pac 10 that already shares tv revenue in a similar fashion to the Big 12. Or they could have set one up with the Big 12. Nebraska made it clear they asked for a commitment of broadcast rights. they didn’t say they had to commit to equal sharing.
Texas took the quick pay day and passed starting to build equity in a real network.
LikeLike
104.9 The Horn DID NOT report that Air Force and BYU would be two new Big12 teams
We apologize, but it seems like someone had access to the account that shouldn’t have. “
LikeLike
I can’t agree with all the your points. UT ended up pulling it out of the fire, but who will trust them in any future negotiation? Outside the Neo B12, this will only be seen as (1) back-stabbing NE and (2) using/abusing the Pac 10. I’m a UT fan, but this looks too slick by half.
LikeLike
Gas19, the University of Texas is one of the brightest stars in the sky but no star outshines a galaxy. I regret it if Texas is not part of the Big Ten galaxy but I am glad the conference stuck to the principles that got them to where they are today.
LikeLike
hahaha
LikeLike
Re my prior posts
All may be disregarded.
LikeLike
Maybe things are still a bit more fluid than it appears:
http://ncaafootball.fanhouse.com/2010/06/14/university-of-texas-still-listening-to-big-12-pac-10/
The gist is that nothing is yet in stone.
Texas is a great market, but with what I see in all this back and forth, kind of sounds like Texas would be a manipulative pain in the ass.
LikeLike
So a network pony’s up all this cash and doesn’t want a CCG to televise? possibly in the Jerra Dome.
I think two more teams are needed.
LikeLike
I assume the big money in the Big 12-lite hinges on the fact that there are fewer schools looking for a piece of the pie.
If you HAVE to have 12 teams in order to hold a conference championship game, can Texas produce two JV programs (whose earnings would go right back to UT) to play in the Big 12-lite?
This way, you have 12 teams, but still just 10 mouths to feed.
WIN WIN.
LikeLike
The “Pac-16” is dead for now according to the Dallas Morning News:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/061510dnspoblogcoll.a2975b0c.html
“Pac-10 Commissioner Larry Scott confirmed that the University of Texas has declined an invitation to join the conference. ”
==
That explains why the private jet owned by former Oregon AD Pat Kilkenny waited until Monday at 1pm Central Time to depart Austin to return to Concord, CA.
==
Pac-10 Deputy Commissioner Kevin Weiberg reportedly will visit the University of Utah on Wednesday.
The new “Pac 12” won’t be much of a football league (with USC being down for a while) and won’t be good in basketball either.
LikeLike
According to Dallas Morning News its done:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/061510dnspoblogcoll.a2975b0c.html
LikeLike
A critical component of this “deal” is being missed:
“But the deal would last for 18 years, well beyond the typical stretch for a TV rights deal.”
http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/06/13/2262003/big-12-tries-to-up-ante-halt-further.html#ixzz0qrTOWNqD
18 years, folks. Overpaying up front to be underpaying for most of the contract. That’s Beebe’s plan that everyone is going to sign onto without reservations.
LikeLike
SEC is 15. ACC is 12. Don’t see much of a difference.
LikeLike
SEC is 17 with local content going only to the school (anywhere from nothing to 10 mill per year).
Also, those numbers are the start points for their contracts. That link said “could reach 17 by 2012” meaning its still in question (at least in my mind). Maybe they hit it, maybe they don’t.
Also as mentioned the 18 year contract might hurt. The BigTen “could” be at $40 million in a couple years while the Big12 will still be stuck on this contract for quite some time.
Fox, IMO, got a deal.
LikeLike
Big Ten will renegotiate in 2016 and in 2026 as compared to this one which will be in place until 2030 or something like that.
Sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Big Ten will be paying out at least 4x this contract after the second renegotiation…
LikeLike
Its probably better than the SEC deal ($17 million + $3 million for appearances + network vs. $17 million + network). Better than P10 for UT/OU/A&M ($17 million + 3 million for appearances + local network vs. $20 million).
And you get to keep the old rivalries and better geography.
Probably less than B10 deal which is $22 million before expansion.
Beebe got bashed everywhere, but he just got the votes of KS, KSU, ISU, UM and Baylor for life.
LikeLike
“could be worth 17 million by 2012”
In other words its not to the level of the SEC, let alone the BigTen, might not actually get there by that timeline, and even if it does likely increases by steady amounts over the course of the contract.
Meaning in 5-10 years they’ll be being paid the equivalent of what the BigEast gets now.
Beebe bought the Big12 one last gasp, but I don’t think any of the true problems the Big12 (or the Big8/SWC before it) had have been addressed.
LikeLike
18 years, folks. Overpaying up front to be underpaying for most of the contract. That’s Beebe’s plan that everyone is going to sign onto without reservations.
That’s an odd point to make since TX just today renegotiated their contract 5 years early. Whenever it gets out of balance, TX will renegotiate again. They can always go to a super conference, despite any $ penalty.
You Cornwhiners got what you wanted, yet can’t help but continue to reflexively bitch and moan. Just burns you up that both TX and NE could come out winners.
LikeLike
Just reminding you not to count your chickens. Nebraska could really give a shit one way or the other.
LikeLike
Uh, I think you and Bullet miss the point.
The Big Ten’s contract is 10 years.
It will be up in 2016, and the payouts could skyrocket compared to the Big 12-2’s that would be signed to start in 2013 or whenever.
That means you run into a massive inequality situation just 3 years into the 18 years…
LikeLike
PN in his chest thumping also gave another reason why schools will take a long hard look before signing this deal:
“That’s an odd point to make since TX just today renegotiated their contract 5 years early. Whenever it gets out of balance, TX will renegotiate again. They can always go to a super conference, despite any $ penalty.”
Texas has the money to always have an out, and they don’t feel bound to the new situation. BYU and Air Force will leap at such a secure option.
LikeLike
That’s possible, but it would be SEC, P10, ACC and B12-2 all behind. If so, Delany looks like a genius. Then again if everything goes to the internet, maybe TV rights decline in value. SEC, ACC and B12-2 put the risk and benefits on the networks. BTN means Big 10 schools have the rewards on that part of their contract, but also the risks.
LikeLike
And, PN, I really do appreciate your unintentional admission that Beebe=Texas:
“TX just today renegotiated their contract 5 years early.”
Not that anyone didn’t already know it.
LikeLike
Nebraska didn’t whine. They did something about it. Having taken control of its destiny Nebraska is much happier and better off. I am sure Texas feels the same way 🙂
LikeLike
They should be overjoyed, they get 10-0 votes now on stuff like the baseball tournament in Round Rock instead of Bricktown in OKC.
Sorry, OKC.
LikeLike
agree.. Texas should be thanking nebraska for leaving. OU and A&M rolled over like a cheap whore and nobody was there to say no.
And Texas just became a hero to KSU/ISU/KU/Baylor/Missouri… never mind Texas kicked them in the nuts, they’re still hero’s to those schools.
Finally, texas has one game to the NC now.. just one.
Texas couldn’t have asked for a better result.
LikeLike
And B10+1+1 gets a bunch of 11-1 votes!!!
LikeLike
Don’t get your hopes up, I think the Big Ten Championship in Jerryworld is a dead issue.
LikeLike
I agree, it’s a win-win. Nebraska would have fought the LSN. Nebraska was the only school in the conference to fight Texas on most issues, but there was talk that aTm and OU were against it, too. Having Nebraska gone makes life easier for Texas. Remember, Texas’ refusal to sign their media rights over to the conference was the last straw for Perlman. But, the threat of breaking up the conference got Texas the guarantee that they could start the LSN unopposed. If the LSN doesn’t perform, Texas can shop around again in five years. Texas wins.
Nebraska will get more money and be in a like-minded conference that offers stability. Oh by the way, the academic benefit could be enormous. Nebraska wins.
LikeLike
“could boost future payouts to $17 million by 2012.”
So the plan is to eventually get to the level the BigTen and SEC currently have, maybe, and lock that value in for 18 years…all while maintaining the same balance of power issues that caused the Big12 instability in the first place and recreating a glorified SWC at the same time?
Am I the only one that thinks Mizzou, KS and a few others are going to use this time to start preparing back-up plans?
LikeLike
If they are smart they will. But I’ve come to the conclusion that none of the Big 12-lite teams are all that smart.
LikeLike
The Big 12 reminds me of the financial meltdown.
They just keep paying interest payments to stay afloat, and don’t build an equity between the members.
LikeLike
Am I the only one that thinks Mizzou, KS and a few others are going to use this time to start preparing back-up plans?
Nope.
LikeLike
I just dont understand why anyone would pay so MUCH for the Big 12 lite…. look at the new deal the ACC got.
Dont get me wrong I like to watch Oklahoma football, and sometimes Texas… but besides those two no one really intrests me in the slightest.
I for one am hoping this whole thing blows up and they get far less than they expected, while at the same time the LHN makes UT a killing. Serves the Aggies and OU right for being a part of this thing.
LikeLike
18 years, folks. Overpaying up front to be underpaying for most of the contract. That’s Beebe’s plan that everyone is going to sign onto without reservations.
Nah. In seven years when that deal is outdated, Texas will just threaten to blow up the conference again and get another pile of cash (and take an even bigger cut from the nine other lap dog schools than before)
LikeLike
this is like one of those Left Behind novels. Nebraska and Colorado got raptured and the rest ere left behind in a world ruled by a horned overlord.
LikeLike
LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LikeLike
Post of the day IMO.
LikeLike
Brilliant!!!!!!!!!
LikeLike
+1 made me laugh so hard my wife came in, read what you typed and just game me a blank stare -_-
LikeLike
Very 🙂 !
LikeLike
So the rumor is that Fox is apparently the network ponying up for the Texas Ten. Doesn’t seem to really make sense if they were the likely partner for the PAC 16. Only reason I can think of for why they wouldn’t prefer the PAC 16 deal is either:
a) They prefer broadcasting on their own networks to minority ownership in league networks or
b) They were not going to be the PAC’s partner of choice. Any chance the PAC deal is going to with another player like Comcast?
LikeLike
Or as I said above, Fox doesn’t want the SEC to get into Texas’ markets with A&M.
And it doesn’t like the Pac-16 if it ends up having to overpay for it.
Much better to lock in the Pac-10 and Big 12-2 for long periods of time at much cheaper rates than to combine them for negotiating.
LikeLike
makes tons of sense to Fox. the Pac Ten deal involves the Pac Ten taking equity. thats a better long term deal for the Pac Ten. The Big 12 isn’t setting up a network so Fox keeps the equity.Fox winds up with the same content but keeps all the equity in the Big 12 deal.
LikeLike
Breaking news on ESPN: Texas will remain in Big 12.
LikeLike
So how are the aTm fans reacting to this latest news?
LikeLike
I’ve been wondering this as well. seems like a real weak move. SEC deal was better for them and exactly what they wanted. have to imagine enormous political pressure was brought to bear.
LikeLike
Oh, I’m sure they’ll fall right into line.
LikeLike
They were getting all used to their independence too…
LikeLike
What in the heck is aTm thinking. They had their key in hand that unlocked the door that was UT’s shadow, and they wasted it while UT just got stronger and will rule that conference until it implodes again.
LikeLike
Until the conference implodes again…
The B12 is so dysfuctional. Again – alot is probably over exagerrated in the media – but it seems like most everyone hates most everyone else in the conference. The disharmony will rise up again eventually.
Admittedly, I don’t know more than some speculated details, but what happens if oh say KSU goes on a successful rush again (or heaven forbid, Mizz) that coincides with a lull at UT (imagine the 90’s) – Does UT continue to roll in their 20-25 mil/yr while KSU takes their 14 with a smile?
LikeLike
50% of TV deal is shared equally. 50% is based on appearances. So everyone could end up above or below the average.
LikeLike
For all their talk and UT bashing, if TAM accepts this deal I would be really surprised but then again they may just talk a good game in the end. The SEC seemed like such a good fit and opportunity to further establish identity on their own as well as make alot of money. A long term future in the SEC seems alot better deal than long term insecurity in the new Big Texas League. Some things never cease to amaze me.
LikeLike
Other “winners”: Iowa State and Kansas State and Baylor, who would have had nowhere to go. Dodged a major bullet. (Kansas basketball may have allowed them a home somewhere.)
I can’t help but pity poor Missouri, having to return home with its tail between its legs.
LikeLike
one day, in the not to distant future, Texas invites Missouri to go fishing on Lake Austin
LikeLike
The conferencestill has its doubts. If Texas wants to pick up and leave, they can. then back to uncertainty for the rest.
LikeLike
ESPN still not reporting it.
LikeLike
Now I want to know what the heck we’re going to call these conferences. We now have a Big 10 with 12 schools and a Big 12 with 10 schools.
LikeLike
ours: Texas and the 9 bitches
Or: The Longhorn Conference
LikeLike
Guys I think we’re done with expansion for now.
The main reason is that the Big Ten has to wait until 2016 in order to get the full value of any expansion team in a contract. Yes the BTN gets value automatically as Nebraska fans tune in and Nebraska gets added to the footprint, but notice that Nebraska has to be worked up to a full share.
It’s much easier to work out an expansion near the 2016 contract evaluations.
I don’t see Delany adding anyone but Notre Dame and a partner if that situation arises. Or if there’s an ACC raid (highly unlikely now) by the SEC that opens Maryland/UVA or something…
If you think about it, if we invite Rutgers/Maryland now, we have to somehow make them whole and the current Big Ten members whole. How exactly do we do that easily unless we expand right before the 2016 contract talks.
That date makes it expansion easy because you’re not having to feed 14 schools on an 11 school contract, and yes I know the BTN automatically adjusts but still, I don’t see Delany jumping unless Notre Dame magically appears to be willing to join.
There just seems to be too much risk to expanding with 6 years left to the contract.
Obviously, Nebraska is different because its a top football program of all time with great facilities, etc., so it had to be taken at this time.
I don’t see Delany jumping unless a similar kind of situation appears…
More likely, he opens up expansion talks again in 2014-2015 with another 12-18 month timeframe.
Then we may add Rutgers/Maryland or something like that if Notre Dame is still hesitant, because it would be right in time for the contract negotiations and we’d only have to feed 14 schools on a 11 school contract for 1 year or so…
LikeLike
Oh, and Nebraska is really easy to make pay off because we get the added benefit of staging the CCG.
Thus, it’s really easy to make everyone whole by just adding a 12th member and stop if that member increases BTN revenue enough combined with the CCG revenue…
LikeLike
But Zeek, it should be true that any University that can deliver 2.5M cable homes at 80 cents/month is already break even without any other considerations, such as bowl wins, etc. If this is the case, there’s no reason not to acquire these targets as soon as the study’s over.
LikeLike
Exactly, why wait? Why leave money on the table?
LikeLike
Assuming the latest breaking news to be true:
(1) I was wrong. (But at least I went on a limb and predicted something rather than hedge my bets by predicting 720 different possible outcomes as this has all unfurled!)
(2) I am not happy. Short-term monetary gains at the expense of longer-term stability. Slightly diminished conference. No academic upgrade. Burning bridges with potential long-term partners.
(3) This revised TV contract they’re working on better have some sort of guaranteed national game with no split coverage. Preferably with 3D glasses or something like that.
That is all.
LikeLike
HH —
Been waiting to hear from you.
LikeLike
You’re going to run into this exact same situation within 6-7 years.
And it could happen twice; word is that the new contract going to last till around 2030, but the Big Ten will renegotiate twice in that period of time (2016, 2026) if we’re still on 10 year contracts. This new TV contract will be current for a few years and then it will get outdated by the end of this decade and hopelessly outdated by the middle of the 2020s, so you’d better hope Bullet is right that there will be other revenue streams that make these contracts obsolete, or we’ll be doing this dance again…
LikeLike
You’re going to run into this exact same situation within 6-7 years.
Hell, since I’ve already been proven wrong, how about we’re going to run into this again in a month or so when the Big 10 defies my prediction of last week and moves ahead to scoop up two or four more schools, including Mizzou?
LikeLike
One comment in one of the articles made me wonder if there was a renegotiation clause. Didn’t come right out and say there was one, but raised the question if you read between the lines. Read so many in the last hour, don’t remember which it was.
LikeLike
Reference was to matching what other conference contracts were.
LikeLike
If I am Delany and really want Notre Dame, I invite Missouri, Kansas, Rutgers right now and create the seismic change ND needs to move or Missouri, Rutgers, Pitt/Syracuse. Blow this shit up with one last foray this time around. If not, this was a dud and Delany failed.
LikeLike
The Big 10 expanded without taking any black sheep from conferences (Missouri, Rutgers).
I’d say he did just fine.
The problem is that 14 schools saw the Big 10 as their Fairy Godmother, while all Big 10 fans seemed to expect that the Big 10 would end up being stronger than the N.F.C.
He said “expand… and expand again.” Well… part 1 is done. Someday, it will come to Part 2… whether it is in June 2010 or 2015 or 2030.
LikeLike
agreed Hop. they took a short term gain at the expense of a longer term deal.
but its all business so I don’t think you burned bridges. we’ll see in the future.
LikeLike
As long as Texas has the same academics, households, and athletic program in ten years as it has today, I’m sure those bridges will still exist.
LikeLike
I agree. And I haven’t heard anything out of Texas administration bad-mouthing B10 or P10 or even UNL or Missouri. Its really been the other way. Saw one report claiming 4 B10 Presidents said no way even to A&M. And of course, UNL took their shots.
In any event most of those people will be gone or elsewhere in 10 years and $ are still $. Its all about the money. There’s been nothing altruistic about the B10’s behavior. They’ve been acting totally in their self-interest w/o concern for the devastating consequences to others. And I have no problem with any of their actions-just the self-righteous hypocrisy.
LikeLike
the 4 Big ten presidents, from what I heard were responding to demands, allegedly, from UT and decided to draw a line on academic issues. and knowing the Big Ten I can tell you who they likely were. Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern and probably Penn State but maybe Indiana.
LikeLike
I disagree. If Texas behaves a certain way conferences simply can’t trust it in any long term fashion.
That burns bridges fast. Under the category of “what good does it do to gain the world if you lose your soul?”
LikeLike
And there is nothing other than some anonymous rumours that Texas did anything other than change their mind a few times when new info became available. We’ll probably never know the real stories.
LikeLike
Horn, Texas wins in all cases. Be glad your not a Kansas or Iowa State supporter.
LikeLike
At least it doesn’t look like SWC II. We’ve got OU & OSU as a bonus. ISU for SMU a +, KS for TCU a +, KSU for UH a +, wait–Missouri for Rice, alright a big minus, no MOB.
BTW, I don’t think Delany is done. It won’t take much in $ to offer until 2016 if a BE school is a target. And if Frank is right and ND is target, that seems like right strategy. But SEC is probably satisfied. And ACC and B12-2 will only poach down-MWC or BE.
LikeLike
Don’t forget — Iowa State every frickin’ year. That’s a hell of a lot better than the two Pac 8 crossover games we would have had each season.
LikeLike
At least we wouldn’t have to look at those Oregon uniforms.
LikeLike
But now you also have K-State every year, who for some reason gives you guys fits.
LikeLike
For some reason they don’t give UNL fits. Maybe 100 years of losing to UNL makes it a routine.
And they may have cost us a national championship. KSU player gave Colt same injury his freshman year that Alabama gave him. And the Alabama hit wasn’t anywhere near as hard or scary as that KSU hit. At least this way we have a chance to catch up to them. They’re the only one in B12 play with a winning record against us.
LikeLike
I think political spin here is that Texas cares about the small schools so much that they sacrificed the glamour and glitz of playing in L.A. to make sure they don’t have to endure the horror of the MWC.
I remain unconvinced that it was anything more than just a damn silly transparent bluff that left Texas with only one exit, once Nebraska, then A&M called it.
LikeLike
Curious about the burned bridges comment. We agreed before on a thread that w/o UT, then the Pac doesn’t go to 16 – so it will always have room for UT later down the road if a possible realignment scenario reemrges. That being said, I am sure the Pac cannot feel too good about the possible (who knows what really had been communicated) way this went down – maybe the B12 or SEC either.
UT brings too much to be shown the door – but if things go south in the new B12 (which may be inevitable, but you never know), they may not get as many concessions as they would have been in line for now.
LikeLike
If you want a pro-Big 10, Delaney-is-a-mastermind conspiracy theory, how about this?
In the same way that Notre Dame’s fan base needs to be softened to the idea of conference shifts, the state of Texas needed a wake-up call regarding their future. All of the vultures were circling (SEC and PAC10 most visibly, but the Big 10 was around too)…and only by huddling up all of the dying beasts could they stave off death for now.
Two of the biggest targets from day 1 (only Missouri was a serious target that didn’t yet defect) went elsewhere, making everybody happy. Big 10 wins with NE, PAC10 wins with Colorado. While this may seem anti-climactic today, five months ago we would have been flipping out to hear that CO and NE went elsewhere. Five months ago, the Big 12 at 10, the PAC10 at 11, and the Big 10 at 12 (irony, anyone?) would have blown our pea-brained minds.
At the end of the day, Delany said that expansion would happen in waves. The Big 12 may have staved off the SEC and PAC10 now (June 2010) but there’s a good chance that nothing concrete will happen by January 2011 with that conference’s TV deal. What happens when that falls through? When Missouri (or insert one of 9 schools here) decides, “Hey, I don’t want to be Texas’s lackey after all!”
When the emotion settles down a bit (and the media circus isn’t in full bloom), Texas and Texas A/M can look at the financial benefits of a crappy Big 12(-2) versus a burgeoning Big 10(+2) and make a logical decision.
Perhaps the Big 12 will add some bottom feeders (Air Force, BYU, ?) to strengthen the short-term prospects of the members left behind (Tech, Baylor, et al). That might assuage politic pressures down the road.
On the other coast, the Big 10 can add Rutgers and watch the Big East collapse. At that point, ND might start chatting with their Longhorn buddies again about that Big 16 idea in the old Big 10.
LikeLike
I can see how the potential new Texas-10 money could keep UT, A&M, and OU put, but what prevents Missouri from being a Big Ten target?
OU plays a strong out-of-conference schedule. Will Texas decide to ramp up scheduling, or will they continue to roll in Sul Ross State and friends?
On the other hand, I am glad that this move may delay conferences from jumping to 16 schools way too fast for their own good. I hope a quality 2-loss school gets a BCS title game berth over an undefeated Texas-10 school. Maybe then we can get a playoff.
Kudos to Colorado and Nebraska for leaving for greener pastures. I give the Texas-10 maybe a decade before the big dogs flirt with leaving again.
Just don’t make fun of the Texas-10 to Vince Young’s face.
LikeLike
It remains to be seen if Colorado went to greener pastures. I would be very surprised if the Pac 10 can get a tv deal where their schools reach $17m a piece. But them again, I would’ve never thought that the Big 12-lite would’ve received the one that the apparently just did. So anything is possible I guess.
LikeLike
I’ll believe the Big 12 numbers when we see it. and Colorado wanted out and got out. there with a conference that appears focuded on taking a long term view. they’ll be fine.
LikeLike
IMO the Pac will get a contract more in line with the ACC deal, but the Pac Network will up that number closer to the SEC/BT numbers now.
In the end, I think they’ll be ok.
LikeLike
Yes, Texas is going to have to drop weaklings like Notre Dame and Ohio State that it has been scheduling.
LikeLike
When is the Texas-Notre Dame series?
Is there another Ohio State series coming, or are the Horns still using that series to validate 10 more years of Rice, Sam Houston, UTEP, and Plano East?
LikeLike
Justify* not validate
LikeLike
I seem to recall reading something about it. But in the next 6 years there are home and away with UCLA, Cal, BYU, Ole Miss. We do go slumming with Minnesota.
During the SWC years, Texas scheduled one of the toughest ooc in the country-Auburn w/Bo Jackson, Penn St., Notre Dame, OU every year. It has slacked off in the Mack Brown years, but then everyone has, unfortunately, especially Notre Dame and the B10. Both of whom used to schedule pretty good. Notre Dame is creating a national schedule by scheduling Nevada? The B10 is loading up with a lot more MAC teams than they used to. Michigan vs. Appalachian State (woops-that was a little tougher than expected). Previously they might schedule Colorado and Notre Dame in the same year.
One of the unfortunate things in this realignment is that most conferences are going to 9 games. It will be the good intra-conference games that will suffer.
LikeLike
To bullet…
In my wishing upon a star… Minnesota alum Tony Dungy comes back to restore historic tradition and Gophers actually field a team to play with the Horns.
Please God, let it become truth…
LikeLike
Well Purdue took 35 years and won the B10. Maybe their co-conference champs of 1967 MN and IU will also.
Sorry to say you will never compete in basketball. Tubby is one of the best on court coaches there is so he’ll probably win enough not to get fired, but he can’t or won’t recruit. Kentucky talent was never so weak as when he was there.
LikeLike
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=498&sid=1117493
Recriminations continue. UNL badmouths Texas. A lot of B10 fans upset UT didn’t take their offer. SEC fans badmouth UT and OU for not going their way. Now one of the survivors badmouths CU.
LikeLike
I think we may be on hold for awhile but I seriously doubt it waits till 2016. an upfront expense for a long term benefit is just a matter of cost analysis. if the proper situation presents they will move earlier.
LikeLike
Well, in any case we can wait, by the 2016 contract negotations the ACC deal should be obsolete.
Perhaps that may help us pry some ACC schools away…
LikeLike
I think this almost guarantees a playoff no later than when the current BCS agreement runs out in 2014, IF TX wants one. ACC and SEC already want it. If TX wants it, the B12-snip wants it. Dodds previously pushed 10 years for a playoff.
(If needed) TX now has huge leverage over the BEast to convince them to vote for a playoff. TX just lets it be known that if they can’t get a playoff then they’ll trigger super conference formation to get it that way. TX just proved they can do it.
If P11 and B10+2 still won’t join, the rest can start without them. There is no way they’ll stay out for long. Plus the P11 commish may be open to a playoff, and Delany has proposed one before. The new head of the NCAA is a playoff proponent. Put it all together and I’m optimistic.
OTOH, this could be just a temporary pause for TX. Let the B10+ do their thing and be the bad guy, let the SEC and ACC react, then A&M to the SEC, and finally TX can move. The P11 doesn’t have good options and isn’t going anywhere. If nobody goes beyond 12, then the current arrangement would also be fine for a playoff.
LikeLike
Yet another reason I think the Big and Pac push to move to 16 by that timeframe…if they have 32 teams between them and turn the Rose Bowl in the de facto championship game they have a lot of power against a college playoff system.
LikeLike
Oh, the one bright side, from my perspective, in all of this:
I think we can rest assured that a certain school in Austin will lead the fight to ensure Nebraska pays every cent it owes in an early departure fine.
LikeLike
I guess you take what you can get. I personally would love to see people under oath on all this. You sure your side wants that?
LikeLike
LikeLike
Wow..that’s a tragic cover/abuse of Warren Zevon’s original.
LikeLike
I am sure that is the plan. But Perlmen is a lawyer, so I’m sure he feels comfortable with nebraska’s position. And don’t forget, the big10 will circle the wagons for one of its own.
LikeLike
Unless one thinks the Delany/Gee e-mail was talking about the only contact Texas made with the Big Ten, I’d think both sides might be wise to come to a settlement figure. Dirty laundry and all that.
LikeLike
B12 is still together. Its black and white. Pearlman’s only case was if the other 6 left.
LikeLike
I guess we’ll see, you could be right. It’s not a financial burden Nebraska has to bear anyway, as Delany made clear.
LikeLike
I’m sure Nebraska will be laughing after the 2016 contract when it’s probably a full financial partner earning $30-35+M a year…
Paying 90% of their $9M each of the next two years is a pittance compared to the longterm payoff…
LikeLike
And Delany made it a point to say Nebraska won’t take a pay cut from what they’re currently getting. I imagine any penalty has been figured into that. We’re in the Big Ten, and Texas gets vassals and one less potential bump in the road. Win win!
LikeLike
zeek, isnt it just 90% of one year? so they pay about $8M to get out of the B12.
LikeLike
Yeah, one year penalty. Our farewell tour.
LikeLike
Best $8M we will ever spend.
LikeLike
And yes you’re right eapg.
The Big Ten will fund it entirely.
I’d imagine they’ll take it out of the growth the 11 schools expected.
Surely, the BTN’s revenue and ABC/ESPN contract pay out an extra $10+M easily this next year, so the Huskers will be made whole very easily.
And yea, as you guys scale, you’ll leave behind this Big 12-2 mess in the dust.
LikeLike
“And yea, as you guys scale, you’ll leave behind this Big 12-2 mess in the dust.”
We already have, zeek. Don’t tell Delany, but we could have collected the money in a few days by putting a “Get Away From Texas” bucket in front of Walmart.
LikeLike
It’s a divorce, just write the check and never schedule a Longhorn conference opponent ever again.
LikeLike
Wow, you Nebraska guys sure are bitter for someone coming out of this millions of dollars richer. And I guarantee they’ll still schedule the Longhorn conference, especially if they ever want to be a recruiting force in Texas.
LikeLike
Could be, but there are 6 other D-1 teams in Texas. And I don’t see why Husker fans should be bitter. We got what we wanted – the Golden Ticket and out of the political fiasco (for us) that the B12. And UT got what it wanted – more control over the B12, more money, and the LSN. Both sides should be happy and high-fiving each other.
A&M fans should rise up and remove their administration. OU fans should ask UT fans for permission before speaking. It’s the fans of the other B12 schools who should be enormously pissed off. I’m sure most of the hate will be directed at the Huskers since those teams still need UT, but we’ll be just fine.
LikeLike
I assume the big money in the Big 12-lite hinges on the fact that there are fewer schools looking for a piece of the pie.
If you HAVE to have 12 teams in order to hold a conference championship game, can Texas produce two JV programs (whose earnings would go right back to UT) to play in the Big 12-lite?
This way, you have 12 teams, but still just 10 mouths to feed.
WIN WIN.
LikeLike
Houston and who else?
LikeLike
BYU
LikeLike
Indeed. The Notre Dame of the LDS has no money or options. They’ll jump right on the Texas bandwagon. Air Force also, even though they are government funded.
Maybe it’s just me, but I wouldn’t be all that sure about those two.
LikeLike
I was thinking about something along the lines of the best two intramural flag football teams on campus.
LikeLike
like I said, Houston and who else? 🙂
LikeLike
hahah
LikeLike
Oh, definitely Houston. That’s the only way to make this any worse.
LikeLike
SMU?
LikeLike
guys,
I think it is the plan have 12 teams, but only pay 10. I would go one further to say that Kansas just found out how valuable its basketball program is in the Longhorn Conference. Missouri would probably join for free, just to have a place to land. Maybe the same for K State and Iowa State. Baylor might just pay money in to stay in.
So the pie really gets split 6 ways..
TU gets 2/6
OU gets 2/6
TAMU/ OSU split 1/6
8 teams split 1/6
or something like it…. for any current Big 12 posters (adding in CU and UNL folks) what is home attendance like around the league? Once you get past say TU and OU?
LikeLike
SMU is worse.
Duffman-B12 is 3rd in attendance, not to B10/SEC levels, but ahead of everyone else. That’s the difference between SWC 4 and B12 last 5. B12 last 5 were pretty solid.
Last 4 years:
5.UT 93,033
12.UNL 85,126
13.OU 84,484
16.A&M 79,296
29.UM 61,714
40.TT 51,665
43.CU 49,734
44.KS 48,799
46.ISU 47,133
48.KSU 46,507
50.OSU 45,740
70.BU 35,472
71.TCU 32,630
88.UH 22,406
98.SMU 18,432
106.Rice 16,727 (hey Loki-don’t blame me-I contributed at least a half person per game-and I even bought some shirts-BTW my son wants a Rice shirt with a BIG owl. We only found shirts with small owls).
LikeLike
I was trying to explain to my son what was going on with Texas and their conference and all last minute changes. It was clear he understood. The response:
Oh, its kind of like an alien zapped them and took away their memory!
LikeLike
Thank you, Hopkins…
LikeLike
Yeah, but you lost two strong teams. Sure, Colorado wasn’t a powerhouse anymore…but they certainly were stronger (and gave a more unique demographic than TTech, OSU, KSU, ISU). As for Nebraska, they were at very worst third dog in the conference. That’s a huge hit. My analogy is that the Big 12 used to have a value of 12. Now they have a value of 9…with 10 schools to split it among.
It’s not a WIN WIN.
LikeLike
I’m a Xavier alum. Tell me I’m dreaming (or better yet, tell me this is a bulletproof plan and it is only a matter of time before it happens):
1. A&M tells the Big 12 to screw off and goes to the SEC
2. Needing a 12th, the SEC picks up Virginia Tech
3. Syracuse replaces Virginia Tech in the ACC
4. Big East splits up, The Catholic League Basketball Conference becomes a reality
5. Xavier, Dayton, and SLU join Marquette, Villanova, Providence, Georgetown, St Johns, Seton Hall, and DePaul
A less complicated version would be Louisville getting wooed by the Big 12 to replace A&M, then the Syracuse chips wouldn’t necessarily have to fall (although you have to think they would).
LikeLike
the SEC would need a 14th but I agree it would be Va Tech.
I think UConn more likely than Syracuse. still bruised feelings that they took Va Tech last time.
makes sense except #1 is the problem. I don’t think TAMU pulls the trigger
LikeLike
It appear aTm isn’t going anywhere but back into bondage with UT.
LikeLike
amccr80,
I was rooting for X women to get to the FF, TP and AH are Indy girls!
LikeLike
You won’t see a more tragic ending to a game. Between that and the K-State thriller, XU had one hell of a March.
LikeLike
yeah i was watching it, was supposed to go but had business come up. my heart was breaking for her, tragic.
both programs are always good to watch, but they need to break the next level. they have had some FF possible teams.
LikeLike
amccr80, you have a solid chance of having this happen eventually because even if the Big Ten doesn’t take Syracuse, eventually the ACC will once it gets poached for Maryland (by Big Ten) or VaTech/FSU (by SEC).
And the Big Ten is going to go after Rutgers at some point in time to get a flag down near NYC regardless, so you should be able to see a CLBC sometime… It might be too soon now, but that’s a string of dominoes that is likely to fall once the ACC gets picked off…
LikeLike
Creighton is angry they were not included in your Catholic basketball league.
LikeLike
Questions:
At what point now will we hear Swarbrick say “No means no”? If we don’t do we assume they are still in play and negotiating with the Big Ten?
Is there anything left to consider if you are ND? No seismic change if things remain as they are.
Does Delany still work on ND? What can he do?
If you are Delany does blowing up the Big East keep the dominoes falling and eventually lead ND to join?
Is not getting ND and or Texas, not increasing the BTN footprint and reaping financial windfall, and ending up with only Nebraska when all is said and done, going to sit well with Delany and have his final legacy fizzle?
LikeLike
I think this whole situation forced presidents and athletic directors to consider plans a lot earlier than they dreamed they had to.
I think the Big Ten and ND have a better understanding of what could happen over the next few years. Maybe they both lie low under the assumption they’ll be talking in the future.
In the meantime, ND can celebrate independence and its alumni can calm down.
The only loser is Big Aluminum. Fewer foil hats.
LikeLike
lol
I think you are exactly right. let emotions settle down and the adults talk about real issues.
LikeLike
Rick, I don’t think Delany needs to do anything.
Right now the gap between the Big Ten per team and Notre Dame is $5-10M. This gap will only become larger over time unless Notre Dame really starts winning and picking up ratings.
At what point does Notre Dame say, we need to keep up in terms of funding? Probably not yet, but at some point they may need to look into it if Northwestern or Indiana can more easily fund their athletic departments…
I don’t think Notre Dame abandons independence for a while, but it will happen sometime…
LikeLike
Yep, and that Radio Shack stock kept going up too.
The gap may widen. Then again, it may not.
It could be that the BTN has simply given every conference leverage to ask for more money from the networks.
LikeLike
My point was re: Big Ten versus Notre Dame, not other conferences.
Since ND isn’t in a conference, they are entirely dependent on their own performance to get their contracts with NBC negotiated upwards.
LikeLike
Was on some A&M sites, they feel like they just got sold down the river!
might as well rename this thing the Longhorn Conference.
Lots of luck for any school not covered in burnt orange!
wow, TAMU had TU by nuts, and just let them win. It feels like TAMU and the rest are suffering collective Stockholm Syndrome or Battered Wife Syndrome.
The smart ones in this gig, are CU and UNL. At least they are out of that dysfunctional clusterf%#k!
LikeLike
Battered wife syndrome…that is a good analogy.
LikeLike
Texas couldn’t be happier with these results. They should be paying nebraska as a thank you.
LikeLike
Duff I was thinking the battered wife syndrome as well for TAM. Good call. Sad and embarrassing if I am them.
LikeLike
How bout I bought you for a cigarette so come on back syndrome. I don’t why A&M doesn’t just grow up and strike out on its own to the new horizon.
LikeLike
BTW.. for the lawyers on here what about the fiduciary liability for the BoR of TAMU if the SEC was the better deal?
LikeLike
Probably would need an actual SEC offer in hand.
Also, the damages would probably be based on the current SEC contract divided by 13. Otherwise, you would be speculating.
LikeLike
Big Tex will always do fine in the end.
But they do look a bit unseemly always pressing for this league of unequal partners.
If they really wanted a Big 12 that wasn’t built on a foundation of sand. They would follow the SEC model of equal tv distribution while the University controls its local market.
But they continue to try to put themselves ahead of like minded traditional partners. OU, and A&M just were lucky enough to be invited to sit at the jocks table this time.
While the whole doesn’t progress because of this mentality.
Big Tex is the hot girl with self esteem problems. she must be told she is better than the other girls.
If Texas would just believe it is great without having to make its partners play on an un-balanced playing field they would be more respected as an institution.
LikeLike
There is a mindset that you should never ask for help from the outside. You should pull yourself up by your bootstraps and earn everything you have. You deserve what you have. Asking for help is weakness. If you have less than someone else, it is because you are lazy or don’t work hard enough.
It almost seems like the Big 12-lite is trying its damnedest to avoid equal revenue sharing- to a fault. Baylor, Tech, OSU, and the Big Eight remnants don’t need that equal revenue sharing Yankee socialism! Who needs millions when you can have the power of association!
LikeLike
This is Irish Texan reporting for Fox News.
Back to you Shep.
LikeLike
hahah, oh lordy
LikeLike
I’ll admit, I laughed by butt off when I read that after reading both of your comments.
LikeLike
Philosophy is that 50% based on TV appearances forces schools not to coast-like Duke in fb, Vandy, IU. IU can get to the Rose Bowl. They have done it before.
LikeLike
The counter argument being that Texas and UTEP are televised, Iowa State and UTEP are not. Two sides to every coin.
LikeLike
You seem to be acting like the other leagues don’t have these same problems.
They do and as a conference of equals they share in all aspects. It would be different if these Universities only played sport. But they do not.
a University is not defined by sport and the Big Ten and other conferences understand that. the sooner the Big 12 figures it out the stronger they will be.
LikeLike
B10 is most egalitarian. P10, ACC and BE are similar to B12. SEC in the middle. Everyone has their philosophy. However, the most homogenous conferences have the most equal revenue sharing.
LikeLike
It’s really tough though.
I mean yea some schools coast, but some actually try to put the money to use in a good way like Northwestern, which actually tries to field competitive teams and recruit.
It’s obviously harder because of academics and since NU can’t put more than 20000 in the seats, but the TV money is a much larger percentage of the budget than other schools.
But in general, your other point is more important. The Big Ten states are mostly similarly sized as well, and it’s not as if one state clearly dominates the footprint and the fanbases, etc.
LikeLike
Fall Football Outlook
With the Big 10 and SEC in the hunt and USC toast, wonder how this will stack up as the ACC might do better than the Longhorn Conference?
LikeLike
So do we know if the Big 12 will be adding two more schools?
LikeLike
no. the BYU Air Force rumor was denied by the radio station that tweeted. it said someone else got access to their account.
LikeLike
Stephen F. Austin is in like Flynn. 😉
LikeLike
New B12 by-laws say “No Yankees” so the University of Toronto and McGill University are getting invites.
LikeLike
Well, as a west coast guy – this sucks – especially if the rumors are true and ESPN came up with the deal to get UT paid and keep the conference together.
I know most don’t care OR dispell the east coast bias theory – but this ESPN move all but ensures that it aint gonna get better and probably looken to worsen. With ESPN now HEAVILY vested in the SEC and B12….there is a good chance that the Pac gets zero airtime from the WWL. Eastern Sports Programming Network indeed.
Thank the lord that there will be a PTN (or will those dreams be crushed as well) so I can watch some games….On te flip side – I pray that B10 expansion continues east quickly to force ND in. At least then NBC may be looking to pick up some games to broadcast…
LikeLike
I thought it was Fox putting up the money.
LikeLike
IT’s looking like it’s ESPN to head off FOX
LikeLike
It is interesting, though, that ESPN hasn’t leaked anything to ESPN yet about that in any of ESPN’s reporting.
LikeLike
Did ESPN report when they signed that deal with the ACC?
I recall them not really reporting on it at all…
LikeLike
You’re not going to hear a single word from most of us about east coast bias. In fact we agree with what you’re saying…
There’s a reason even the ACC got a lot of money from the recent contract talks even though it’s been staging the worst CCG of them all and it’s had a couple of down years in football.
The Pac-10 plays when the East Coast goes to sleep. That’s clearly a problem when you’re talking about marketability and value.
Texas would have largely fixed that, so I think most of us here understand your sentiments…
LikeLike
And when the Big East renegotiates its contract… we are looking at folding money this time!
LikeLike
The Big East still has major problems with only 8 Football schools and a Hybrid mix. Something has to be done on the football side with their own expansion. And maybe Tags will actually be worth a damn and they do something right for the Football side. I’m not holding my breath though.
LikeLike
StoppingBy, if you want more exposure for Pac 10 football, you guys might consider going on “daylight wasting time.” Synchronize yourself in the fall with the Midwest or East. Otherwise, its just a matter of time….zones.
LikeLike
Thing is this year, the Pac has agreed to take on many more Thurs games and early Sat (early for us) games to increase exposure. I am for that (ie being creative due to geographical disadvantage) and IMO it was Scott who pushed that because it wasn’t done by the conference before.
Problem comes in with how much $$$ ESPN now has vested in SEC, B12, and ACC – there is not going to be any $ left elsewhere and ESPN will obviously push their product so there is no upside for the self proclaimed World Wide Leader in Sports to push anything played West of Dallas.
IF UT had come over – that B12 money probably shifts over to the new Pac and increased exposure for conference.
LikeLike
Stoppingby, I see your point. The only other thing you guys can do is become road warriors and play more games further east. I myself would not mind seeing a Pac ten team in Soldiers field. This would make a good neutral site. A place to pull in a SEC, ACC or Big East opponent.
LikeLike
Pingback: Top Posts — WordPress.com
Oh, the Buffs fans must be elated. They get their West Coast scheduling and all instead of being stuck in the neo-SWC…
LikeLike
they owe us $10million
No checks
LikeLike
Pretty sure we don’t pay anything. The Little 10 just takes it out of revenues due from the conference.
LikeLike
right
LikeLike
The ego and greed from you all. No wonder 25% of your confrence wanted out.
LikeLike
I didnt count the Aggies -_-
LikeLike
ha…some people just don’t get funny
LikeLike
@DRD – Is OU going to go along with this “Longhorn Conference”? Can they just accept the Pac 10 invite or an SEC invite? Are they just flat out stuck? I don’t get it.
LikeLike
I don’t think OU will have any problem playing in the Longhorn Conference. They’ll use Texas players to win a Texas conference and ride the BCS berths all the way to the bank.
LikeLike
well, 6 out of 10 are from the Big 8.
Just because the new league name is “Texas and it’s 8 bitches” does NOT mean it’s a Texas Conference.
LikeLike
The Big 12 was really an expanded Big Eight, but Texas changed that. Kansas City disappeared. Dallas took over.
You are correct, DRD, the Big 12-lite is not really a Texas conference, but it functions as one.
If Texas joined the Big East tomorrow, the Big East would become a Texas conference.
LikeLike
the Pac-10 never looked that great. The SEC didn’t invite Okla. St.
So yeah…pretty much stuck.
It was 3 crappy choices for OU.
LikeLike
Man, I wish OU could ditch OSU.
You know, OSU makes decent money Athletically…. does OU try to see if they would expand by 4 (OU / OSU / A&M / VT)?
LikeLike
The other big winners: college football fans. No conference Armageddon, and 3 more teams are now in BCS conferences. With the increased payouts, it only insures as many games as possible will be televised to maximize ROI. The nearly ubiquitous conference title games pave the way for playoffs.
We all win!
LikeLike
Only 1 new team, Utah, gets into a BCS league (Pac-12).
The “Big 12” is stuck at 10 members. Neither Texas nor Oklahoma want to go back to 12.
The Mountain West will once again be on the outside looking in with 9 teams once Utah bolts.
LikeLike
LikeLike
Ha! Good find.
LikeLike
All the noise and the fury and we end up with a whimper.
1. Big Ten will stop (for now) at 12 with Nebraska. It could not bag the big elephant (Notre Dame or Texas). No entry into New York or DC TV markets on the expanded digital cable tier (for now). Nebraska is definitely NOT a revenue accretive addition for the Big Ten from a TV perspective.
2. Pac-10 will stop at 12 with Colorado and Utah. Again, not the big prize it wanted (Texas). Doubt that the TV deals would be that much better with Colorado and Utah than without them. (The Conference Championship Game in Football would net at most $1.5 million per school. Attendance could be ugly if the game were to be played in LA.)
3. The Big 12 will be down to 10 schools, with Texas firmly in control (now that Nebraska is gone), because 1) a mystery TV network [ESPN or FOX Cable] came in with the big bucks to stop the “Pac-16” and 2) the Texas State Legislature woke up and put its foot down on both Texas and A&M.
4. The Mountain West will be stuck on the outside looking in, having added Boise State to replace Utah. No chance for a BCS auto bid in the forseeable future.
5. The WAC will forever be a collection of struggling FBS programs (i.e. San Jose State, New Mexico State, Hawaii, Idaho, Utah State, etc.) with nowhere else to go, serving as “doormats” for the next FCS program (i.e. Texas State, Montana, Sacramento State, Cal Poly, UC Davis, Portland State, and eventually Texas-San Antonio) to come through the revolving door as the next BCS Buster-wannable.
LikeLike
its not finished
LikeLike
“Nebraska is definitely NOT a revenue accretive addition for the Big Ten from a TV perspective.”
Please explain why.
LikeLike
You’re really going to say that Nebraska + CCG won’t expand the pie by enough to pay for itself?
LikeLike
The Conference Championship Game is worth at most $1.5 million per school (i.e. $18 million after expenses.)
Nebraska only has about 700000 TV households.
Assuming that 600000 of those TV households have pay TV, the Big Ten Network can earn about $1/month x 12 months x 600000 = $7.2 million.
The Big Ten only keeps $3.6 million after FOX Cable takes its share.
Recall that each Big Ten school currently takes in $22 million.
Adding Nebraska results in having to split the existing pie more than 11 ways (but not 12 ways due to the vesting period), with only about $5 million in new revenue.
LikeLike
Alaskans for Nebraska brings in another 1000 a month.
I think Delany is on this.
Not worried about The Big Ten. Like being worried for Bill Gates when he buys another company.
LikeLike
So by your calculations Nebraska + CCG increases revenue by $21.6M (which I think is a big understatement) and somehow that’s not enough to cover their share?
In reality, I think Nebraska adds enough to the states around it and outside of its footprint to pay off a few million above that at least…
And the additional inventory from Husker games that would have higher ratings when on BTN than others, will make it pay off easily.
You may end up seeing Ohio State/Penn State/Michigan games bumped down to show Nebraska games instead.
Advertising dollars should go up plenty due to the Nebraska addition.
LikeLike
Er, I meant some Ohio State/Penn State/Michigan games put on BTN while Husker games get the ABC/ESPN treatment…
LikeLike
The $18 million from the Conference Championship Game was going to be there whether the Big Ten added Nebraska or another school (i.e. Rutgers, Maryland).
The increase in Big Ten Network subscriber revenue for adding Nebraska is no more than $8 million a year, of which the Big Ten only gets to keep 50%.
The Big Ten would have made more cable TV money by adding Rutgers or Maryland.
By adding Nebraska, the Big Ten added barely enough revenue to cover for Nebraska’s share after the vesting period is over.
LikeLike
Now the B10 failed by adding Nebraska instead of Rutgers. This blog has jumped the shark.
LikeLike
You missed the point Greg, it is Nebraska and others not Rutgers instead. This is an opportunity lost if stopping at 12.
LikeLike
Is that all there is? Enough to pay for themselves? Is that what Delany is going to settle for? The Big Ten Network is a success story. The model works. Expand the footprint. Expand subscriptions. Leverage advertising. This is a good move getting Nebraska as a first step. They should go for the kill and make some serious money. If not it is a failure on Delany’s part. I thought he was better than this.
LikeLike
Nebraska does add value to the BTN. Ratings and nationally important games will increase. More inventory to fill air time.
LikeLike
Patrick, when all is said and done, if this is all there is, and Delany settles for 12 and done with Nebraska, can you honestly say, after all your analysis, that the Big Ten (Delany) is maximizing the financial opportunity it has with the BTN? I thought you said the BTN was sitting on a Gold Mine and should start printing money with footprint expansion into major markets and population centers. That combined with the advertising revenue bumps from high ratings brands like Nebraska and the Big Ten upside was scary. This can’t be the end, I just don’t think Delany is done.
LikeLike
It is, but all things are relative. It doesn’t make sense for the Big Ten to destroy the Big 12 and Big East and ACC.
At a certain level, you don’t want the SEC and Pac-10 to consolidate, while the Big Ten is enjoying maximizing its growth at the head of the pack.
Getting Nebraska this expansion round makes the Big Ten by far the strongest conference coming out of this expansion…
LikeLike
Maximizing?
Hell no! It was blatently obvious that they Should expand and go to at LEAST 16. I could even see a 20 team league under the Big Ten umbrella, but virtually playing as two leagues.
Nebraska will earn the BTN money…. but no where near what a major expansion with major players will.
I still think they continue expanding. I am still stunned that UT – College Station & UT – Norman are putting up with this agreement.
LikeLike
@ Patrick
You’d think they’d at least have their own people look at the numbers combined with the length of the agreement, plus whatever lock in penalties Texas has negotiated for everyone else, which will be impossible for them and just below the pain threshold for Texas.
Something stinks in Denmark, but fear can make people do some crazy things.
LikeLike
If it is true, it fits what I thought! Do I win a prize? (I realized I opened the door).
Let’s wait until the NBC deal is up and take on ND & GT, MD or BC or, what the hell, even Miami.
If I was KS/Mizzou and Co., I’d be mulling plan Bs.
LikeLike
At least for now, I agree. Everyone wins except Mountain West. They were getting giddy. 12 team conferences are better as 1 conference. And with 4-16 team conferences some really good programs got left in the cold (Kansas?).
LikeLike
Not real clear, what I meant to say is 12 team conferences are more like a single conference, not two conferences tacked together like the P16 would be. P16 or B16 would have been interesting, but this is really a better overall result.
LikeLike
In the end what I will miss most is the new drama that could have been:
1) The Aggie Corps marching on Berkeley
2) Texas in the Big Apple v. Rutgers
3) Florida v. FSU is conference play (FSU will be back)
4) Oklahoma v. Georgia or Alabama in conference play
5) Texas v. USC on a regular basis
6) Pitt v. PSU in a game that matters
7) ND v. OSU for all the marbles
8) ND in the New Meadowlands every year or two
9) Michigan v. ND in the CCG
10) PSU v. Texas in the snow and rain in Happy Valley
Oh what could have been!!
LikeLike
11) Millions of grade school children in Texas chanting, “S-E-C! S-E-C!”
LikeLike
Kinda like John Holmes yelling B-I-G, B-I-G! I mean, do you really need to go there if you think you got it covered?
LikeLike
You need to chant S-E-C as often as possible.
Got an A on the test? S-E-C!
Got that promotion? S-E-C!
Nailed those scrambled eggs? S-E-C!
LikeLike
I read that poorly….
SEC grad, gets A’s on his tests..
Gets a promotion….
And now is the early chef at the “Waffle House”…
Sorry, sorry S-E-C grads, lol
LikeLike
You know, I was reading his 1-10, and I was like “Hmmm, I really wanted to see some of this.” Then I saw your #11 and I was like “Thank God this didn’t happen.”
LikeLike
Well when Arkansas left for SEC, there were tens of thousands chanting SEC, SEC. They went 1-7 the year they announced and only beat SMU just off the death penalty. The chant followed them in the 4th quarter in every stadium. The Aggies were on the verge of experiencing that.
LikeLike
Instead they are forever doomed to hear chants of “Who’s your daddy”.
LikeLike
rick,
the first few times I heard that I thought cool, IU fans because their kids went to IU. true story! Hoosier pride knows no bounds (or optimism).
LikeLike
OU vs Nebraska in the Rose Bowl
LikeLike
Texas in Madison or Evanston on a really cold and possibly snowy one.
LikeLike
How about the Stanford band in College Station? That would be worth the price of admission just for the halftime show.
LikeLike
credit to Huskerhydes for original idea, but edited….
Press release: THE NEW LONGHORN CONFERENCE
University of Texas: Austin
University of Texas: College Station (little sister)
University of Texas: Lubbock (little brother)
University of Texas: Waco (political appointee)
University of Texas: Norman (my bi$ch)
University of Texas: Stillwater (my bi$ch’s kid sister)
University of Texas: Lawrence (mens basketball)
University of Texas: Manhattan (state mandated)
University of Texas: Ames (chick basketball)
University of Texas: Columbia (double secret probation)
University of Texas: University Park (BMW minimum)
University of Texas: Houston (GED required)
LikeLike
ps.. loki,
I left Rice out, they deserve better!
LikeLike
this is funny
I’m stealing it!
LikeLike
Well at least you got it right. It would be U of T Ames, not U of T Iowa St. Actually it might be University of Texas at the cornfield.
LikeLike
Bullet,
they really have a good women’s team
http://gazetteonline.com/blogs/the-hlog/2010/06/13/iowa-state-womens-basketball-coach-bill-fennellys-tweets-are-candid
and they built it from the ground up, mom & pop, no corporate stuff. read an article about them awhile back, really good story about how the built the program the right way.
LikeLike
So you Big 10 and Notre Dame-rs will love this one:
On the radio, it was speculated that the Big 12 would not expand to ..um 12. BUT that Texas and ND love affair might have ND joining the Big 12 in the future…where ND can keep their TV rights!
Seriously that was on the radio.
LikeLike
😦 😦 😦 I hope not.
LikeLike
irish,
how do you make the unhappy faces?
LikeLike
Just : + (, side by side, no spaces.
😦
LikeLike
That’s terrific.
LikeLike
LOL one of the reasons ND did not want to join the Big Ten was it was “regional” how in the hell is a smaller Big 12 lite not regional?
LikeLike
beats me, unless they see UofTexas as a fellow “National” team
LikeLike
Or a fellow independent looking for games in a few years once the LSN rules the world!
LikeLike
yeah and everybody laughed when I did the TD conference, yipe (Texas Dame).
LikeLike
This town ain’t big enough for you and me, mister. 😉
LikeLike
Oh man let them invite Stanford to help start the conference.
Stanford, Texas, Dame
lol
LikeLike
patrick!
very funny!
LikeLike
We just need to move the physical ND campus to a Dallas suburb. It may be expensive, but it’s an investment. Preferably overnight, preferably with Mayflower trucks.
After that, I don’t think ND will have any problems with playing regional schools.
LikeLike
This is cool with me. I mean you can say that that Pam Anderson is hot but dang she has hepatitis.
Rumor is Anderson has Hepatitis B is an infectious illness caused by hepatitis B virus. So ND and Pam and Texas knock your socks off
LikeLike
Maybe I didn’t see this posted earlier, but Illini Prez Stanley Ikenberry says that 12 teams are enough for the Big Ten.
http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/06/illinois-president-12-teams-enough-for-big-ten.html
LikeLike
The same school that gets $22 million from the Big Ten and still has to subsidize the Athletic Department.
LikeLike
yeah and the IU article talked about disrepair in sports facilities. yike!
LikeLike
Naw, that’s a good post to see. And due to his prior run at Illinois, his views may be among the stronger ones in the conference.
Regardless, it shows that they were patiently waiting for the right fit to show up, and they don’t seem inclined to rush into picking up Rutgers or Maryland or Missouri, etc.
LikeLike
They were forced into Nebraska before they were ready. I do not believe this was the end game they were waiting to show up. You can spin it all you want. Nebraska is a great get, don’t get me wrong, I just don’t believe this was the plan all along.
BTW: Still nothing from Swarbrick or Delany. No “No means no” yet. No spin from Delany on 12 and done. So I don’t think it is over.
LikeLike
And we thought Aggies had cojones…
LikeLike
They do. Texas keeps them in a handy jar if they need them.
LikeLike
fabulous!!
LikeLike
Jackie Sherrill on Houston radio:
He’s not sure of the timeline but expects expansion to continue.
Says the Baylor call into the B12 did indeed come from Gov. Ann Richards.
(BTW, I learned he has an iphone with the same ringtone as mine. Not sure if I’m happy about that…)
BTW, right now Texas has a governor election in Nov, and a legislative session from Jan-May 31, after which they won’t meet for 18 months. US will probably get a less interventionist and less irrational Congress in Jan. So sometime after May 31 TX and aTm may be again open to change, but with a year to have gotten their ducks in a row.
LikeLike
The two candidates are A&M and UT alums. Neither particularly interventionist.
LikeLike
Six months ago, if you were to tell us the Big Ten landed Nebraska, we would all be doing cartwheels. The only reason people think Delaney did a meh job is because of that Texas illusion. Every conference looks a lot better with Texas, but you have to ask yourself how realistically willing the school was to leave in the first place.
I for one am glad the Big Ten has not (yet) added a questionable filler school— then you could rightfully say the Big Ten has egg on its face. Right now, the Big Ten added a school that fits.
There aren’t any perfect Penn State glamour-wives because major conferences look a lot different now than they did 20 years ago. Many schools are settled, and most independents are gone. Texas may be the next Penn State (but are they team players?), but it won’t be one just yet.
Or who knows, maybe they’ll join tonight.
LikeLike
At the last expansion Penn State was a major Independent. It’s funny that Penn State is not an out in front ambassador to woo Notre Dame. Then again ND is ND. Freud would have problems wooing ND.
LikeLike
Go back and read six months of 12,000 posts. Adding Nebraska and stopping at 12 would not have induced cartwheels. The are a great addition as 1 of 3 or 5 additions. A Delany failure would have been the common feeling.
LikeLike
Chip Brown: “Provisions in this Big 12-Lite TV deal keep the schools from jumping conferences. So they are locked in together (for better or worse).”
LikeLike
So, uh, what kind of financial penalty does it take to lock Texas in together with a conference? Will the number fit on a standard calculator?
LikeLike
I’m figuring Texas has an out…but the rest don’t.
LikeLike
They (UT) would actually be samrt to put a death grip on members jumping so they dont have to go through this again. But it doesnt necessarily prevent a majority of members to vote for dissolution to avoid penalties – if things get that bad again…
LikeLike
Oklahoma is playing right now, the camera panned to a sign in back.
Big 12 (the 12 was x’ed over), 11 (the 11 was x’ed over), 10
funny visual, sorta made you feel like one of those will work for food signs in handwriting skill.
LikeLike
I think that you have to give Jim Delaney even more credit for the move he did not make inviting Texas to the Big Ten. Praise Nebraska and Colorado for just saying no more Texas.
LikeLike
wes,
in the end delany will get the praise..
UNL and CU will be seen as smart..
and A&M will be the ones that dropped the ball..
LikeLike
And praise A&M for doing UT’s bidding yet again.
LikeLike
WOW if all teams could do this,
play one tough game a year, and coast to a NC game.
The Longhorn Conference could be in the NC every year with just winning the Red River Shootout. The press should call them on strength of schedule going forward, but that will not happen because they “saved” the conference.
LikeLike
It’s called the Ohio State model, right?
LikeLike
Apparently, the Pac-10 and Texas were in discussions for months.
A source close to the Pac-10’s expansion negotiations told The Denver Post that Texas insisted on better revenue sharing and its own network, which essentially killed the deal.
“In the 11th hour, after months of telling us they understand the TV rights, they’re trying to pull a fast one on the verge of sealing the deal in the regents meeting,” the source said. “They want a better revenue sharing deal and their own network. Those were points of principle. (The Pac-10) wants to treat everyone fairly. It’s been that way for months of discussions.”
LikeLike
I can’t beleive that Texas would ever do that…
LikeLike
Bluff and poison pill.
And Texas makes another enemy who is already spilling the beans about how long they’ve been at this. Lawyer’s ears perk up.
LikeLike
Interesting…I suspect we will see a lot more of this soon enough.
LikeLike
Nooooo Waaaaaaay! Not Texas.
UT thought it was a good deal at first.
TV Network jumps in (ESPN) to stop the Pac 10 expansion, and Fox Sports developing a Pac 10 network. ESPN throws a good contract at Texas to hold the last 10 together.
Texas gets a raise, and nobody threatens the LSN. Win, win. Tell the Pac 10 to F’ off, and the Pac 10 pulls offers for everyone else. Leaving them no alternative but to continue life as UT – Norman and UT – College Station.
Texas gets everything they want, and all they had to do was play everyone against each other and blame someone else.
LikeLike
Utah may be the biggest winner of all, with KU out they slide into the Pac 12 and away from dsyfunction junction.
LikeLike
Jim Delany had me worried for a while, but he’s the man! The Big Ten comes out of all this as the big winner, adding one of college football’s premier program. Plus, all the options are still available for any future expansion.
I hope the leagues stay in their current form for a long while, though. Hell, I still miss the old Big Ten, Pac 8, Big 8, SEC, SWC, ACC and WAC (with BYU and the two Arizona schools dominating)…and old bowl system with the Big Ten/Pac 8 Rose, Big 8 Orange, SEC Sugar and SWC Cotton.
Good job Jim Delany! I apologize for doubting you.
LikeLike
Yeah, Delany really did a great job when all is said and done.
And when the Big Ten once again massively outdistances the other conferences, we’ll start up expansion talk and topple a few more dominoes.
LikeLike
The spin begins
LikeLike
Big Ten – Stronger.
Pac-10 – Stronger (but not as much as Big Ten).
SEC – No change.
ACC – No change.
Big East – No change.
Big 12 – Weaker.
LikeLike
if delany really wanted to salt the earth he would issue invites to Kansas and Missouri, just to mess with TU and OU.
LikeLike
The man was defeated, the emperor has no clothes.
LikeLike
yeah but it would free the slaves of the conference, hard to do much if you are a 2 state 6 team conference. No more national appeal.
LikeLike
Not at all. I was pissed when it looked like Delany got himself hustled, but in the end…he realized no other league was going to give into the unequal revenue sharing that Texas demanded. Except for the Big 12.
The Big 12 teams get a little more money, but lose a premier football program to the Big 10. The Pac 10 marginally helps itself with CU and maybe Utah. The other conference sit tight and ND is still out on an island.
The Big Ten gets a great football program on their own terms…and get a championship game. Delany comes out as a winner.
LikeLike
@cjb56 – The Pac-10 would’ve been the winner if it could’ve pulled off the Pac-16 with Texas, but when we take a step back, the Big Ten is the one conference that clearly made itself stronger financially and competitively. I’m glad we didn’t try to get into a bidding war here. Now, I do think that the Big Ten is going to need to get into areas with more favorable demographics soon, but if we stopped at 12 with Nebraska for now, I’d be more than happy.
LikeLike
I just fell off my chair.
LikeLike
Thing is – The Pac has unbalanced revenue distribution as well. My understanding was that everyone would be equal in a PTN w/ an unbalanced payout from Nat’l deal.
If Phizzy posted is acurate, then UT went along till the end to throw in what is more than likely a large dispartity in payouts in addition to the ability to create their network.
LikeLike
He won’t, due to political pressure I suppose. We’ll see if an allied conference getting jerked around by Texas changes that. Probably not.
LikeLike
For the conspiracy theorists, here’s a good article. Some unknown powers stepped in to save the B12 (seriously-that’s what it says). Since Obama isn’t a KU grad, T Boone and Warren Buffet are connected to the conference, not sure who it was. Maybe it was Obama. Delany didn’t want UT in P10 so he had his Chicago buddies call Obama! Or maybe my son was right-Aliens stepped in and zapped Fox, destroying their memory.
http://www.cougcenter.com/2010/6/14/1518258/pac-10-expansion-larry-scott-never
LikeLike
Warren Buffer is a UNL grad.
LikeLike
I think Pete Thamel had the best comment on this:
PeteThamelNYT
Source confirms that Texas asked to be able to keep own local TV and wanted “extra sweetner” financially from revenue sharing at 11th hour.
Sorry if unclear. Texas made those demands to the Pac-10 at 11th hour, ending the talks. Hence, Texas greed keeps B12 alive. How quaint.
LikeLike
not like it will happen, but it would be nice if the rest of the country stopped putting TU on their schedule. this is the USA, a collection of states, not individual countries.
LikeLike
Something similar was in the Denver Post.
LikeLike
NY Times also reporting last second Texas demands to Pac 10 per Pete Thamel twitter:
Source confirms that Texas asked to be able to keep own local TV and wanted “extra sweetner” financially from revenue sharing at 11th hour.
Sorry if unclear. Texas made those demands to the Pac-10 at 11th hour, ending the talks. Hence, Texas greed keeps B12 alive. How quaint.
LikeLike
First of all, I’m not a conspiracy nut. Honestly! Not trying to start a 6/14 or Big 12 Truth movement – unless, of course, there’s money to be made!
But did Texas (and Beebe) just take the Big 12 and the Pac 10 for a ride?
I really can’t believe that this television deal just fell into Beebe’s lap over the past week. If it is available now, certainly it would have been available two weeks ago during the Big 12 Conference meeting… there’s no way Beebe would have entered those meetings without investigating possible future TV revenue.
But undoubtedly, there would still have been too much resistance to a Longhorn Network, and a crisis had to be manufactured (which wasn’t too hard to do, given the internal stresses in the conference). Ultimatums were issued, and the Pac 10 was manipulated into making it’s timely offer. Colorado and Nebraska then left (which was mostly a foregone conclusion), and the rest of the league was scared shitless and scrambling for the lives.
Then Texas and Beebe save the day, and Texas gets what it’s been wanting for years, while remaining King of the Conference.
Did something like this happen? If so, it was masterfully played.
(By the way, I’m very pleased with this outcome. I’ve wanted the Big Ten to develop strong regional rivalries during expansion. Nebraska fits this to a tee. In my opinion, Texas, while a great school, did not.)
LikeLike
Beebe actually had a significantly increased TV deal that required Nebraska to stay around 2 weeks ago. That one was from Fox, their current partner.
Nebraska was going to leave anyways though because the Big Ten is hard to turn down academically even if the money is relatively similar in the first years… Plus, being in a much more stable conference that isn’t going anywhere and that features much more similarly sized institutions with similarly sized population footprints is a better situation in general.
Supposedly, ESPN didn’t want to see the Pac-16 emerge into a gigantic behemoth to the west of the Mississippi that would have a similar network to the BTN led by Fox, so they jumped in with this 11th hour deal.
LikeLike
And I don’t think Texas is really happy about this turn of events.
Yes, on the face of it, everything is patched up for a few years.
But the Big Ten should comfortably outpace this deal within a few years, and we’ll be back to the same inequalities…
Sure they get to have their fiefdom continue for a little longer, but over time we’ll probably see this exact same thing happen eventually…
LikeLike
Oh, I agree. This isn’t going to fix the Big 12 problems, and history may well repeat itself.
I didn’t know about Fox’s offer. Was that discussed in an earlier post?
LikeLike
yes it was speculated by some that had heard but only now confirmed
LikeLike
i think they took the Big 10, the Pac 10, and the Big 12 for a ride!
at least delany did well for us, and slive was smart to just offer a&m without taking the lesser children or bowing to TU.
LikeLike
As I said somewhere above, Texas wanted status quo Big 12 plus LSN. They got most of what they wanted. They’ve lost a CCG and schedule strength, things that aren’t going to be as easy to replace as they appear to believe. They can petition for a CCG without adding teams, but hard to see them getting it. Then they have to find teams, ideally outside the Texas footprint, who are desperate enough to accept an invite to a conference which doesn’t treat its members equally and plans on making the penalties for leaving impossible to contemplate. Again, maybe not as easy as they appear to believe. Insert Texas politics into the two teams that deserve to get picked up and maybe you have the final lineup for Big 12 II.
If the whole idea doesn’t blow up in their face before they get everyone they think they have on board lined up.
LikeLike
I totally agree Grant, Texas was masterful. Very well played. Makes Delany look like a neophyte. Meanwhile Slive is sitting there like Braer Rabbit, we have not heard the last from him. He may be better than them all when all is finished. And Swofford looks pretty good now as well while in the midst of uncertainty he strikes a great new deal closing the door on Delany. Next step for him is starting a network and locking down Boston to Miami TV markets and populations with Big East additions. The Big East problems will not be going away and the time to strike is soon. The ACC is smarter than you think. Do you actually think he will let Delany expand in waves and come east now? I don’t think so.
LikeLike
Delany does not look like a neophyte. Get a clue. He got a premier program on his terms and is still in position to pursue his timetable.
and no knock on Swofford but how is he going to start a network when he just signed a deal, a very good deal, for his broadcast rights? and how are those east coast media markets like Boston and New York that were too pro centric to be valuable to building a BTN base going to suddenly going to build a network for the ACC?
LikeLike
Neophyte? Well, I don’t know. I think Delaney is carefully preparing the Big Ten, and that preparation paid off with Nebraska. But I’ll agree that Texas put on an incredible show, the likes of which Delaney might not be able to match. At least I hope he can’t … I wouldn’t want the Big Ten going through what just transpired in the Big 12! No, sir, I’m all for Delaney playing Tressel-ball during this expansion!
LikeLike
You’re so full of shit.
Who is the one man with the balls to start the BTN when EVERYONE was trying to warn him off of it. “A single conference can’t support a network.” ESPN tried to tell him. He told them to F-off while your man Slive played it safe and slinked off to sign their 15 year chump change deal. Let’s see who the genius is in ten years when the Big Ten is bringing in twice what the SEC teams are making.
LikeLike
In case no one posted it above, the $ is from Fox:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/061510dnspoblogcoll.a2975b0c.html
LikeLike
interesting numbers.
hope all works out well for your rooting interests HH. its been fun reading your stuff here.
LikeLike
Thanks, Hank, I appreciate it.
LikeLike
Crazy thought…. but if the new increased $$$ deal came from Fox, is it possible that some of the Big 12 TV rights will go to the partially Fox-owned BTN??? Think about it, there are thoughts that Fox was really pushing the Big Ten to expand to increase markets and revenue for the BTN and obviously Texas would be a big get in this regard. What if they solved this issue a different way by getting some TV rights to Texas schools (and Oklahoma and maybe even Kansas basketball), putting them on the BTN (for 18 years!) and using that leverage to get the BTN on more basic distribution and at “in market” rates throughout Texas and the plains states?
Now, I realize that Fox was reportedly involved in TV rights negotiating with the Pac-10/Pac-16 so it might not make sense for them to undercut themselves. But maybe they were threatened by potentially sharing the huge Texas market (A&M going to the SEC). Or maybe they just thought it wasn’t worth it to develop a new Pac-16 TV network and fight to get that on TV, but would rather just build up their existing stake in the BTN.
LikeLike
I’m not going to bash Texas. They did what they could to maximize their revenue and brand appeal. The other leagues didn’t have to respond, so it is not the fault of Texas that some leagues and schools wound up looking foolish.
LikeLike
absolutely. the Aggies look like they really blinked on this. UT pursued its interests. I think they are being short sighted but time will tell.
LikeLike
hank,
i am telling you it is battered wife syndrome – they should file a civil suit, then they really could get a good share of the TU pie.
LikeLike
As Eddie Murphy once said in Raw… HALF!
LikeLike
new motto for members joining the Longhorn Conference….
LEAVE YOUR BALLS AT THE DOOR!
LikeLike
The plot thickens:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5286816
Excerpts:
——–
In an unprecedented move, a number of influential people inside and outside of college athletics mobilized over the past week to save the Big 12 Conference, stave off the Pac-10’s move to expand to 16 schools and prevent a massive reorganization of college athletics.
An NCAA source with direct knowledge of what occurred told ESPN.com that the aggressiveness of the Pac-10 caused various factions of the collegiate sports world to coalesce. They then worked to slow and try to stop the pace of moves that would have left a number of schools searching for a new conference home.
The source said the people involved were business executives, conference commissioners, athletic directors, network executives with ties throughout college athletics, administrators at many levels throughout the NCAA membership and a “fair number of them without a dog in the hunt.”
According to the source, this collection of interested and influential people made phone calls, visited in person and held conference calls with the Big 12 schools that were being pursued, including Texas, as well as Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe. The influential group also helped broker the new television deal between Texas (and the other schools considering leaving the conference) and Beebe, who represented the remaining Big 12 schools.
According to the source, there was a growing sense that the Pac-10 was taking an approach inconsistent with the best interests and values of the schools impacted, both positively and negatively.
Late Monday, Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott said that Texas had rebuffed the league’s invitation to join the conference. Soon after, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State announced they would remain in the Big 12. That meant the Big 12 wouldn’t dissolve despite the fact Nebraska left for the Big Ten and Colorado left for the Pac-10. Several details remain, but Texas president William Powers Jr. told Scott “the 10 remaining schools in the Big 12 Conference intend to stay together…”
…“The Big 12 sticking wasn’t a miracle,” said the source. “There have been a number of people who were involved — a number of seriously key people — unrelated to the conference who will never be known to have helped get things on track…”
LikeLike
conspiracy, what about collusion – civil suit for unfair restraint of trade maybe? i am not a lawyer, anybody?
LikeLike
Makes for a good cover story, anyway, until you take into account that the NCAA has never before taken it as their duty to be involved in these issues, but suddenly everyone decided to put them in the loop. Just glad Nebraska and Colorado got out before Texas losing any more bitches became a matter of national security.
LikeLike
eapg is a perfect example of why no one in the former B12 is sad to see NE go. Trash talk 24/7. Enjoy!
(Plus every school got at least a 50% pay increase.)
LikeLike
Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State will be sorry to lose those home games with 15-20k in tickets that won’t be sold to Nebraska fans every other year.
LikeLike
Zac, those schools are just lucky to remain in a BCS conference, beggars can’t be choosers!
LikeLike
@ PN
Check our pay increases, they happen in athletics and academics. And no one in Nebraska is sad to be going. It’s our day of jubilee! Win win! Enjoy!
LikeLike
Anybody else smell Tagliabue’s hand prints on this thing given that he is now working for the Big East that was probably about to get whacked by the Big Ten in order to match the move to 16?
LikeLike
I dunno, but that’s an interesting guess.
LikeLike
So there is an illuminati of college football deciding what the landscape of college football should look like? I don’t know if I’m ok with that.
LikeLike
bama,
if there is, they are not pro SEC!
remember, A&M had a home there, and they wanted to go!
so the SEC has no illuminati. maybe they are in the ACC or BE!
LikeLike
This group apparently was made up of people from all over the place both inside and outside of college football according to the ESPN article. A “fair number of them that didn’t have a dog in the fight” The Big 10 better watch out if and when they decide to expand to 16.
And while the SEC didn’t get aTm, their preferance all along was for everyone to stay at 12 teams, which is what is happening for now. The only reason we went after aTm is because the Pac 10 was forcing our hand.
LikeLike
bama,
to be fair you guys have dominated the NC, I am guessing some folks are not real happy about that. my guess was slive did not want to expand, he already had the market cornered.
if there was a “cabal” i am guessing the SEC really was not involved, they had no need to expand in the first place.
LikeLike
I’m saying that the “cabal” stopped the Pac 16 expansion, not started it. It apparenlty wasn’t one conference or one tv network (like ESPN) or one governing body (NCAA). Apparently it was a large group of people from areas inside and outside of college football and know one knows who they are because apparently they want to remain unknown, according to ESPN.
LikeLike
I’m not either. Kind of disturbing.
I was laughing about the conspiracy theory in the Washington State link I posted a few lines up. Looks like they may have been on to something. Its not April Fools Day is it?
LikeLike
And what will those same people think about Delany going beyond 12, especially if one is not Notre Dame?
LikeLike
More evidence that this sucks and is a future detriment to the Pac. So if all these people were against the Pac move – why didnt they just go to the Pac and offer them the TV deal without the need for expansion?
Now there is a prevailing sentiment against the Pac for working a plan to increace revenue and exposure? I am sure that will help with this upcoming round of contract negotiations….talk about a raw deal.
LikeLike
The key quote from this article for me…
“Several details remain, but Texas president William Powers Jr. told Scott ‘the 10 remaining schools in the Big 12 Conference intend to stay together…'”
Details remain…and “intend to stay together”
Hmmm…this might buy everyone some time. I’m still of the belief that the PAC10 stormed into this thing because they realized they were going to lose out soon (Big 10 and SEC).
At the end of the day, the Big 10 and SEC are in no hurry to get to 16. Remember Delaney’s 12-18 month timeframe? And alas, here they are, with plenty of time to negotiate their next moves.
I bet the PAC10 makes it to 12 in the next 3 weeks (their TV negotiations depend on it) and they’ll fade into the sunset of expansion news. But for everyone else, this thing isn’t over.
LikeLike
Well this has been a fun little episode but it seems to mostly be over. Only a few loose ends left:
Does the Pac-10 take Utah? Probably, but this needs to happen in the next two weeks I think (not sure how leaving the MWC works). I would be rather amused if the Pac-10 ends up with exactly the scenario that everyone came up with by just eyeballing it 6 months ago.
Does the Texas Ten go to twelve? My guess is no. If they have signed their contract, they are in an SEC state of not being in a good position to expand unless its a jaw-dropper. BYU might be worth it, but I can’t even think of another school in the ballpark.
Maybe Louisville, but getting them to leave the stability of the Big East for the uncertainty of the Texas Ten would be a hard sell.
I think we’re in for a long spell of no activity.
LikeLike
Stability of Big East = constant impending doom
Iowa State’s share is probably triple what Louisville gets from the Big East.
LikeLike
bob,
first the state of ohio
now the nation
UC winds up at the end of the line again
*sigh*
LikeLike
There won’t be any activity until the Big Ten is prepared to strike on the ACC or Notre Dame agrees to come on board with Rutgers…
A strike on the ACC could come within a few years, but I doubt Delany tries it within the next year.
As Frank alluded to above, the Big Ten still has a demographics problem.
I think Missouri is officially off the list of schools.
The Big 12-2 is now a stable conference in that its schools have no other options other than Missouri->Big Ten for the most part (ignoring Texas/A&M/OU).
This means that Delany will probably never take Missouri; he’ll look at the ACC and the mid-atlantic for the population of the sun belt that he has sought.
Penn State will get its partners in the next expansion push.
I’d still keep an eye on Maryland/UVA/VaTech/UNC/Duke, but I don’t think Delany wants to make a move until Nebraska is integrated and we get to see some amazing revenue $ numbers.
LikeLike
The only odd issue with the ACC is that the conference hasn’t signed that TV deal yet for reasons. Perhaps I’ve been reading too much duffman, but it makes me wonder if something is going on.
LikeLike
M,
A lifetime of chess and bridge and wargames makes me look many moves ahead. it is how you win in the long run. many folks are smarter than me, I just look at longer windows.
LikeLike
Couple of things:
1. Did we just leave through the equivalent of the Cuban Missle Crisis of College Football?
2. If ESPN was behind all this, Brown actually works for the ESPN station in Austin in addition to Orangebloods. In a interview this afternoon with 103.3 in Dallas, he said he could not divulge the network who came in the last minute. Did ESPN just manipulate a bunch of public institutions? Was Brown not just the UT AD office but also the mouthpiece of the world wide leader. This angle of the story I AM VERY INTERESTED to hear.
3. I am very happy to see Central Texas breath a sigh of relief. I have a number of friends who could have been hurt by this, luckily this leaves them another 2 – 3 years and can plan accordingly (which they are). And indeed it will be that time before this thing blows up again.
4. To go to conspiracy. Was it just coincidence that all of this happened right now or something else more sinister? Was the the fact that Baylor the one school with the most to lose just installed its new president one week before all this goes down a coincidence or part of a plan orchestrated by the Pac-10 and UT?
4. Did the Pac-10 poison the well when they invited Colorado ahead of time making it easier for UT to say no (no way to get Baylor there) and harder for aTm to leave?
5. Could a group of fans ever get kicked harder in the jimmy then aTm fans just did? From leaving the abusive spouse for a good man (SEC) to s**king her abusive husband’s balls when he dangles a little money (UT). Aggieland is in shock right now. They may never recover.
6. Was the 11th hour ask by UT to blow up the agreement or truly something they wanted?
7. Who makes out like a bandit in this situation. Utah.
8. Who could the Pac-10 invite as final FU and still get into the Texas market? TCU.
9. How ecstatic are the Buffaloes and Huskers…VERY. While CO misses out on the big money from a B12-2 it would have never come if they had not left so by leaving it made each school more valuable, but they now play on the west coast. Very happy for NU faithful and the B10, a match made in heaven. See you in Bloomington sometime soon.
10. Did aTm ever have a SEC bid and how close were they to leaving? Hours, Days?
11. Who is writing the book on this. One week in June?
12. Does the SEC still want an in-road into Texas or does it consider a weakened B12 a better strategy.
13. Biggest Losers. Pac-10. Took a program that’s not doing a lot and further divided their own pie. Big East: lost a golden opportunity to solidify but for now will still be on shaky ground.
14. Big Winners: Texas – it got everything it wanted (shocker), Big 10 – while not everything it wanted it got a nice piece in Nebraska, the left behind 5 of the B12 – not only keep in the BCS but double their payout starting in 2012.
LikeLike
MWC is a loser. Instead of looking like it could expand by adding some quality cast-offs from the Big 12, it will now almost certainly lose its best school.
LikeLike
Gotta agree with you HH. However, if they can somehow keep the Pac-10 from raiding the conference they may be ok. Why play D when you can play O. Make a play for ASU and Arizona perhaps? Sometimes its nice to feel wanted.
LikeLike
hangtime,
*puts on tinfoil hat*
the whole thing was a setup to get utah in a BCS conference to get congress off the BCS for a playoff!
*takes off tinfoil hat*
LikeLike
Well guess #2 just got answered.
Really its been enjoyable playing with the Game Theory around this. Next time we start the merry-go-around up again, I will be in here. From Bloomington to Dallas, Hangtime
LikeLike
15. Biggest losers: the fans, as it shows what lengths folks will go to protect the status quo. really, on ESPN a cabal of “mysterious” folks “save” the day. The national enquirer or globe could not top that story!
LikeLike
the majority of those involved are public institutions. its time to start filing a crap load of foia requests
LikeLike
Absolutely agree bob.
LikeLike
Chip Brown works for a radio station that is affiliated with ESPN Radio (meaning the radio station takes ESPN Radio programming for free in exchange for running ESPN Radio’s advertising spots.)
Chip Brown does NOT work for ESPN Inc.
We know that Brown’s #1 source was likely to be DeLoss Dodds himself, or a major booster with access to Dodds.
LikeLike
Given that ESPN seems to have a policy against mentioning the Big Ten Network, I wouldn’t rule out a bit of a heavy hand in dealing with any affiliated entity.
LikeLike
I think Nebraska is the biggest winner. They get to leave behind the Big 12 for the Big Ten/CIC and academic prestige that comes with it.
And not to mention their payouts are going to soar over the next few years. Sure they’ll be lower than the Big 12-2 at first, but by 2016, Nebraska will be well ahead of UT in terms of TV money.
Also, the Big 12 lost 2 of their top 4 research institutions: http://barkingcarnival.fantake.com/2010/06/08/wanted-a-beautiful-mind/ , so now the Big 12 isn’t really far ahead of the SEC in terms of academic quality as measured by AAU and research grants…
LikeLike
That last point was for you Hopkins Horn and learnedhand.
LikeLike
Thank you.
LikeLike
That’s all part of the evil plan…. nobody left has a math department that can double check how Texas divides up the money.
LikeLike
So what would have happened if the Big Ten had invited Nebraska, Missouri, and Rutgers instead of just Nebraska?
Was the Big Ten’s conservative move merely reflective of the overall conservatism that manifested itself in the current resolution? Or did the Big Ten’s conservative move prevent the super-conference Armageddon from happening?
Would the Texas Ten have happened if Missouri was gone and the Big Ten was standing at 14? Somehow I don’t think so.
I’m happy with the result, but can an argument be made that Delaney played it too conservatively?
LikeLike
No, the Texas Ten is the optimal result.
Just think about it, the Texas Ten is now a completely stable conference unless the SEC decides to take Missouri in order to make a run at A&M. But I don’t see that ever really happening.
Thus, the Big Ten can now focus exclusively on an ACC raid to get to the sun belt.
In the meantime a Pac-12 and the Big 12-2 are now neutered and will never combine into a gigantic demographics conference.
The Big Ten’s optimal result is having California/Texas/Florida in separate conferences.
Also, the Big Ten just needs to get into the Maryland/Virginia zone someday in order to compete with the other conferences demographically.
Now that the Pac-12 and Big 12-2 both look like they’ll be stable in the longer term, the Big Ten can focus on Notre Dame in the southeast.
This result is perfection from the standpoint of the Big Ten vis-a-vis other conferences.
LikeLike
“The Big Ten’s optimal result is having California/Texas/Florida in separate conferences.”
That’s a great point. But I doubt Delaney expected it to play out this way.
LikeLike
He may not have, but he made the calculated gamble that moving to 12 and stopping might be able to create a perfect result.
And he also knew that Missouri would be available on the back end if the Pac-16 occurred.
Thus, Missouri was all a pawn in this version of the great game. They will probably never join the Big Ten now unless they come with Texas/A&M since the Big Ten isn’t going to try to send Texas/A&M into the waiting arms of the Pac-12 or SEC.
LikeLike
Delany didn’t see this coming and end up with his optimal result no matter how much spin we hear. He ends up being lucky it fell into his lap this way. He got out played and now folds up his cards, gets his spin machine into overdrive, and goes to to the lake house for the summer and thanks his lucky stars every night he was gifted Nebraska so he doesn’t totally lose face.
LikeLike
So the fact that the Big Ten got to 12 while creating a much more stable Big 12-2 is somehow a bad thing?
Winning is the only thing that matters. How you win is just a function of how you play the hand. He played a conservative hand; Larry Scott went all in; Texas called Scott’s bluff on wanting a LSN even though the Pac-10 wanted a Pac-10 Network.
The Big Ten is the clear winner if Florida/California/Texas remain in separate conferences.
Now that the Big 12-2 is totally stable because Missouri is being held hostage, I don’t see why you can’t admit it’s a clear win.
The result is all that matters.
LikeLike
It is clear Delany won a penny ante pot. I just don’t see that as being what he was playing for. If he is hoping to play again there is risk there will be no one to play with once Swofford and Swarbrick finish playing their hands while Delany counts his pennies. I really thought Delany was a bigger time player.
LikeLike
paul,
i think chuck yeager said ..
“there are old pilots, and bold pilots, but not old bold pilots”
i said this would be decided by old folks!
LikeLike
And Alan Shepard said “Light this candle” and aTm pissed their pants and Delany screwed the pooch.
LikeLike
Paul, I think you are correct in your assumption that the B12 would have imploded if Big 10 had gotten Mizz and Nebraska. However, if this were to occur – I think the dominoes would have fallen less to the Big 10s advantage.
If Big12 implodes – I think we see the scenario play out that we all thought would occur last night. aTm to SEC + raid on ACC and 5 to the Pac-10. That’s not a great outcome for the Big 10.
This is an uneasy truce. Let’s call it the Lone Star Conference is still fragile and will be for years to come. If someone gets a better deal they most likely will take it (looking at Mizzou, K-State, and Kansas). At that point, the B10 can try again.
To the point made earlier, the optimal scenario for the B10 is to have states of California, Texas, and Florida all in separate conferences. Once one crosses over, it creates problems for the B10 both from demographics and recruiting.
LikeLike
call it what it is THE LONGHORN CONFERENCE!
LikeLike
And the Big Ten can match any conference that holds one of the three big states with a combination of Maryland/Virginia/New Jersey someday. It just can’t match the combo of California and Texas or Florida and Texas.
Delany probably realized that he was playing a game of Jenga and only went for Nebraska in order to not topple the house.
LikeLike
>>So what would have happened if the Big Ten had invited Nebraska, Missouri, and Rutgers instead of just Nebraska?<<
The downside to taking those schools is that the Big Ten would then have Missouri and Rutgers in the conference. Now, I'm not saying that to disparage them — both bring something to the table, though they are far from ideal — but IMHO the only reason to bring either was as "complimentary" additions, schools that you add in addition to the schools you really want to add.
In the case of Missouri, I saw no particular reason for the Big Ten to invite them them unless it explicitly was contingent on Texas joining as well. Bringing in the KC/St Louis markets is fine and well but given their academics and overall athletic program, they seemed like a pretty weak candidate to me, the kind of school you take because you have an extra spot to fill, not because you really really want them.
Personally, I never saw the beauty of a Nebraska/Mizzou/Rutgers expansion that many on here promoted. I am firmly in the camp that if you don't add Notre Dame or Texas, you don't go past 12. And if you are just going to add one school and can't get ND/Texas, then Nebraska was probably the ideal candidate.
Delaney has gotten it right so far. You set your standards high and then expand because you are getting the big guns you want. If you can't, then you don't just settle for second rate choices for the sake of expansion. That's simply not how the Big Ten operates.
LikeLike
Now that the Big Texas temporarily lives on, I have a couple of observations. I would love to be a fly on the wall the next time Texas A&M’s regents meet. I have to believe there are some angry people on that board after being victimized by Texas politics. This was theie chance to separate themselves from Texas and no longer be seen as Texas’ kid brother. I believe the politicians are responsible for this. There is no doubt in my mind that something, big or small, will be made public that displays the anger and disgust I believe is present at TAMU.
Second, if I were the president at the University of Missouri, I would hold an administrative meeting the second week of school in September (the first week is impossible because it is such a zoo). I would announce that the next time the Big Ten expands Mizzu will not be left at the bus stop. Therefore, I will announce that that MU will proceed to tighten up its academics. As an academic, I know several professors and the University of Missouri and they are very good. As president, though, I would encourage the faculty to go after every research dollar possible. I would go after all kinds of partnerships with local corporations to foster research as well as make admission standards tougher.
Nebraska has really improved its academics recently and will continue to improve. Missouri needs to do the same.
LikeLike
Read my point to the post above.
The Big Ten has to leave Missouri to Texas in order to preserve the Big 12-2.
Texas now holds Missouri completely hostage for the foreseeable future. Thus, it is a shame, but we will probably not see Missouri in the Big Ten unless Texas/A&M come with it.
The Big Ten will not be the reason for California or Texas or Florida joining forces in a demographic giant of a conference.
Delany can preserve the Big Ten as the premiere conference by focusing on New Jersey/NY markets as well as Maryland/Va/NC.
Messing with Texas would only create a true superconference to rival the Big Ten, and the Big Ten won’t want to do that, so we’ll focus on raiding the ACC in the future.
LikeLike
I agree Zeek, I only differ with you on when Delany does just that. I believe now is the time. With or without ND. Can he do it? I’m not sure he can. PSU was easy. Nebraska fell in his lap. No ND. No Texas. No ACC. No major markets (NY Metro). No BTN expansion. No demographic positioning for the future. Money left on the table. I repeat, No Notre Dame. The big prize. Kelly makes ND a winner in all likelihood, NBC re-ups big time, and they are gone forever. He failed. Why would we believe he can deliver ACC targets? Swofford beat him to the punch making a great TV deal thereby sewing up allegiances with MD/VA/NC et al. To say we’ll just go after ACC targets when we feel like it and Delany will get it done is folly now. The time for that was before the new TV deal. Down the road RU/SU/Pitt/UConn will still be there yes. Unless Swofford beats him to the punch again. My money is now on Swofford. Before Delany acts, Slive consolidates his power raiding ACC, ACC raids BE. Big Ten needs further studies. ND likes what they see in ACC and finally sees a good fit. Big Ten hires consultants. More studies.
LikeLike
You might end up right.
The ACC looks great now, but I can guarantee that it will look obsolete once the Big Ten renegotiates its contract in 2016.
Imagine a $35M a year contract. What ACC school could turn that down? That’s when you go and raid the ACC.
But you are right that we may be being too careful.
After all, now that the Big 12-2 situation is stable, it might be time to try to grab Maryland/VA or whatever.
We can always just wait on Notre Dame in the future and grab Rutgers with it… or go up to 15 and wait.
LikeLike
Go to 15 and wait on ND sounds prudent. Then the money gets really serious for ND to consider. A full court press on ACC and BE targets now to get to 15. Lock up DC to NY. Hell even consider BC and Boston to DC. MD, RU, BC, and Nebraska. Rake in the money. Leave Elijah the open chair. It’s theirs when they are ready. If Kelly fails and or NBC doesn’t pony up like they want then maybe finally ND comes aboard. I just don’t see the value is dragging these expansion waves along to far.
LikeLike
I agree with what you’re saying.
I do hope that Delany has considered that kind of approach.
LikeLike
julian,
i was just on one of their boards, pure unadulterted rage and hate would be putting it mildly. I would not be a TAMU BoR member right now without a bodyguard.
LikeLike
Nebraska has improved its academics? Missouri needs to make their admission standards tougher? The average ACT score of incoming freshman to Mizzou is 26. That’s much higher than Nebraska and right smack dab in the middle of the Big Ten. I think Missouri has done a terrific job in raising standards and raising the overall academic level of the university. If you think that Nebraska got the nod because of academics, you’re just not paying attention. I believe Delany and the investment bank wanted Missouri because financially it was a slam dunk. If you’ve been to Columbia and campus, you would see it’s much more like a Big Ten school than Big 12. It was the PERFECT fit.
But…. Illinois had much to lose by Mizzou entering the conference. Northwestern’s J-school did not want Mizzou in the conference. Michigan and its tradition did not want Mizzou in the conference. That is the real story here.
LikeLike
Also, another key takeaway is that someone needs to find HopkinsHorn and stick around him for the next few days. He shouldn’t be alone in a time like this.
LikeLike
Link for the Texas news conference tomorrow at 10am central:
http://all-access.cbssports.com/player.html?code=tex&media=182505
LikeLike
the winners in all of this: ISU/KSU/Baylor These schools went from nothing to increased revenues overnight. Say what you want about Texas and Nebraska, but these 3 hit the lottery compared to where they were headed.
Losers: MWC, as stated above. I also think OU lost, at least from a national perception. They publically state they will follow Texas. Not the perception a school like OU should give.
LikeLike
Completely agree. Iowa State especially was in trouble because they had so little to fall back on in terms of success in football, success in basketball, or a TV market. Even the MWC or C-USA might have declined.
LikeLike
I think MWC is an incomplete at this point. Right now with the addition of Boise State they get a B-,B. If they keep Utah that rises to a B,B+. If they grow a pair and try to pull Arizona and ASU out of the Pac-10, that would give them an A+.
Given that the Pac-8 were ready and willing to sacrifce Arizona and ASU to the rest of the Big 12 – 6, they may start looking around for something else at this point. Getting rejected sharpens the mind around alternatives.
LikeLike
Before I go any further, I just want to say before hand that I am not a conspiracy theorist.
But with that said, you Big 10 guys do realize that one single group of people didn’t stop the Pac 16 expansion. According to the ESPN article that it was “a number of influential people inside and outside of college athletics” and “the people involved were business executives, conference commissioners, athletic directors, network executives with ties throughout college athletics, administrators at many levels throughout the NCAA membership and a “fair number of them without a dog in the hunt.” It also said that “There have been a number of people who were involved — a number of seriously key people — unrelated to the conference who will never be known to have helped get things on track.”
So evidently there is a very large group of people from all over inside and outside of college football that apparently does not want 16 team conferences and apparently wants to remain anonymous. Would they try and intervene if and when the Big 10 decides to go to 16? Who knows, but if I was a Big 10 fan I’d want to know exactly who all made up this group and find out exactly what their motives are. I’m surpised that there aren’t more people questioning this. Or am I just over reacting?
LikeLike
You’re overreacting for one reason.
The Pac-12 and Big 12-2 are completely stable. I don’t see any scenario whereby Texas will blow up the remaining Big 12-2 for the Pac-12 or the Pac-12 will try to launch a hostile takeover.
The Pac-16 was a unique situation. It meant that the Big Ten and SEC would be playing catch up.
But now things are different. Now Missouri is the key to keeping everything stable since they’re realistically the only school that would still bolt. But the Big Ten will never send Texas into the waiting arms of the Pac-12 and A&M into the waiting arms of the SEC.
Thus, west of the Mississippi we have reached a long term equilibrium.
But now to the east, the Big Ten and SEC can wait for a while and then raid the ACC and Big East in order to go to 16.
The Big Ten can now sit in comfort and wait for Notre Dame to change its mind and join with Rutgers. After that you take 2 from the ACC and call it 16. No one would turn down the kind of money we’re going to see.
If you’re an SEC or Big Ten fan, then yes you’re overreacting because the best possible result is a stable Pac-12 and Big 12-2. No Big Ten fan should really want to see California or Texas or Florida combined into superconferences that would become behemoths with 2 of those 3 states.
Anyways, the Big Ten will end up at 16. The fact that Notre Dame is an independent means that it will happen at some time.
LikeLike
But the only reason that the Big 12-lite is now stable is because an outside group of unknown people stepped in and stopped the Pac 10 from expanding. A group of unknown people of whom we do not know what their real motive was other than to interfere in the Pac 10’s business. This was the only chance that the Pac 10 had to go to 16 teams. Now they will be forced to get a team like Utah and settle for a crappier tv contract and hope and prey that the other conferences don’t go to 16. I think that their identity should at least be made known to the public and an explanation given as to why they did it. And since no one knows their motives, you can’t say for sure that they won’t do the same thing if the Big 10 decides to go to 16.
LikeLike
Well, they might, but this has to do with a group of schools bolting a conference, not a conference trying to pick up 1 school.
And the options will be a stark contrast for schools when the Big Ten or SEC comes calling upon Maryland/VA or VATech/FSU. For those schools it will be way harder to turn down say $35M a year as opposed to their contract which at that time may give $20M a year.
LikeLike
What makes you think you walk right in and add 2 ACC schools when you feel like it? Because the money they will see will convince them? What big bonanza? ND? Strikeout. When they are ready ND goes to ACC. Not the other way around. There would be far less push back from ND Nation. Money from NY Metro/ NY State/Pitt/UConn? That is there now and Delany passed. Why risk waiting? The ACC is smart and will probably move on that before Delany.
LikeLike
Would there really be a lot less pushback on going to the ACC? I mean I guess I see the institutional fit better with Boston College and Wake Forest.
I mean I guess you try. I don’t really know what happens next.
I don’t think Pitt/Syracuse/Conn add much. I think Rutgers has potential.
Perhaps we take Pitt/Rutgers but does it add enough to pay for itself?
Only ND seems to do that at this point…
LikeLike
bama,
i am right with you, something smells very bad here. If you can not trust college sports, the demand will dry up!
LikeLike
These people are looking at 10’s of millions of dollars. The Big Ten is looking at 100s of millions if not billions of dollars.
ESPN and those people are looking at TV dollars, I believe the presidents of the Big Ten are looking at research dollars. Two different games going on.
LikeLike
It wasn’t just people from ESPN. It was people from multiple aspects inside and outside of college football.
LikeLike
Let’s take a ride into full tinfoil mode (or as I like to call it “NDNation mode”). Who is to say that this shadowy cabal of unknown actors isn’t in fact the Big Ten itself? If you subscribe to the “conference strength” theory, keeping the Texas Ten viable weakens the Pac-10, weakens the SEC, and weakens the Big 12.
LikeLike
I know that I’m sounding like a conspiracy nut, but I think it is a group of seriously key people(ESPN’s words, not mine) from all walks of college football interests that do not want 16 team superconferences. maybe I’m over reacting, but I don’t like secret groups, especially when the media acknowledges they want to stay unknown.
LikeLike
bama,
i agree i do not like secrets in mammoth ways like this when the job of media is to keep us informed, not in the dark.
LikeLike
M,
I hope you are not right, as if this was the case I would tune out from the Big 10 in disgust. No conference should be that unsportsmanlike!
LikeLike
The cat’s out of the bag for many schools. Everyone now knows that Rutgers, Mizzou, aTm, Maryland, etc all want OUT of their current conferences (or at least their fans do). At the very least they’re unsatisfied. ACC and Big East should be a little on edge. This whole process has stirred up a lot of blood and really got people considering making some moves (or at least expressing a desire to). I don’t see the Pac-10 making the next move but I don’t think this is over quite yet.
LikeLike
The funny thing is everyone keeps saying things are stable, but the fact is things are far from it…
LikeLike
I’m not sure I understand how Texas pulled this off. Take the Big 12. Remove its biggest football program in the North and its biggest TV market outside of Texas. Take away the 14 or so football games from those two schools that you’d previously have the rights to. Remove the broadcasts of the lesser games of the biggest power in the conference so they can have their own network. Get rid of the conference championship game. Now when it comes time to negotiate the new TV deal, everyone school gets at least double what they got under the old contract? Even if Fox feared the creation of a Pac 16 superconference, I don’t see how the money adds up.
I can believe Texas, TAMU and OU are going to get their money. But color me extremely skeptical that Iowa State and Missouri are going to see any sort of windfall from this deal. They take the deal because they have little choice, but I don’t think they’ll see any extra money at all.
LikeLike
Read this. It explains what all happened, somewhat.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5286816
LikeLike
It explains what happened, it doesn’t explain where the money is coming from. It doesn’t say why FOX or ESPN or whomever was willing to pay more than double for what is clearly a not as attractive a package. Even if they paid a premium because they didn’t want a Pac 16, I don’t see it being double.
This sounds like a whole lot of “up to” are missing in that report. This also sounds like one of those corporate mergers where they promise stockholders enormous profits, but when the money actually comes in, it’s a whole lot less than what was initially promised.
Again, I don’t see why anyone would pay that kind of money for this package. It sounds like they’re counting on Iowa State making $8 million a year from the “Cyclone Network.”
LikeLike
Now let’s divide up the divisions…
Delaney says the factors, in order of importance, are 1. Competitive fairness 2. Rivalries 3. Geography.
My preference would be for a simple East-West split, because that would take care of factors 2 and 3. Factor 1 is hard to figure, because it changes over the years. But, right now, Nebraska-Iowa-Wisconsin is comparable, if not better than, Ohio St-Penn St-Michigan.
But I think Delaney’s emphasis on factor 1 means that the four traditional powers will be split 2 and 2. The logical way to do this is to put OSU-Mich in one division and PSU-UNL in the other. The next two best teams are Wisconsin and Iowa. Considering geography and rivalries, it probably makes sense to put Iowa with Nebraska. That would leave Wisconsin with UM/OSU.
Splitting these teams on top probably takes care of the competitive fairness. The rest of teams could be slotted based on rivalries and geography.
That would put Michigan State with UM/OSU. Minnesota could go either way, since it has a rivalry with both Wisconsin and Iowa. Putting Minnesota with UM/OSU preserves the Little Brown Jug rivalry. On the other hand, putting Minnesota with PSU/UNL gives UNL another “western” team. Splitting Minnesota from Mich State also allows two more rivalries to be protected (Ill-NU & Pur-IU). So Minnesota will go with PSU/UNL.
Geography says Pur-IU should be put with PSU/NEB, because all of the other teams relatively close to PSU are in the OSU-UM division. That leaves Ill-Nu with the OSU-UM, which preserves Illibuck.
My prediction (not my preference):
Bo-Woody Division: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois.
Osborne-Paterno Division: Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana.
LikeLike
interesting.
though, i assume that you meant “Paterno / Osborne Division”
Seniority rules!!
In every way, JoePa has seniority.
LikeLike
Btw, it doesn’t appear that the B12 “renegotiated 2 years early”. The B12 FSN contract runs thru 2011-2012, and the new deal takes effect in 2012. They also apparently are getting more coverage on the ubiquitous FSN. Do I get FSN? I’m not sure.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/07/24/tv-deals/index.html
LikeLike
Should be “5 years”, damnit.
LikeLike
FSN = FOX SPORTS NETWORK
but I think it has regions, I am in Fox Sports Ohio.
LikeLike
Texas is more powerful than ever? Completely wrong.
A major component of Texas’ power is the threat of departure and collapse of the B12. It is highly unlikely the other teams in the B12-2 would agree to stay without some certainty. Part of the new B12-2 will likely include much more severe departure penalties. None of these schools wants to go through this agony again (ESPN wants certainty too).
By tying themselves closer to the conference, the Longhorns lose the hammer they have over the conference. They will still be the richest and most powerful and the other members are going to have to be careful not to push them to the point where the departure penalties don’t matter, but Texas won’t be able to steamroll the rest so easily. Power in the B12-2 will be more diffused.
Texas is still powerful — make no mistake, but they are LESS powerful now.
LikeLike
I agree with everything you’re saying.
One more thing I’d like to add (a point which Hopkins Horn has made) is that the Big 12 is now so heavily dependent on the strength of Texas/Oklahoma that they’d better hope that neither team struggles for an extended period of time of even 3-5 years.
The Big 12 now looks like the Big Ten used to do when it was known as “Michigan/Ohio State and the Little 10”.
That can be an extremely precarious situation when you’re competing with a stacked SEC and Big Ten from the point of view of public perception and sports writers who already had an east coast bias anyways.
If Oklahoma or Texas ends up in a multi-year slump, which will happen at some point, the other one may not get much credibility even if it goes undefeated. That could be dangerous.
Thus, the Big 12-2 might have to push for a playoff in order to be able to guarantee itself a BCSNC spot.
However, it will be a lot harder to get 2 BCS bids for the Big 12-2.
LikeLike
Er that should be little 8…
LikeLike
zeek,
i hate to say I told you so, but earlier in the day I put it out there that the media would have an influence over conference. I made a point of the SEC / ACC being ESPN and Big 10 / Pac 10 being FOX, and you said my point was not valid!
🙂
LikeLike
True — but with a 9-game schedule, that’s one less possible OOC loss. As long as one is strong within conference, that could be fine. They won’t get exposed until January.
These are historically strong programs (like Alabama, LSU, Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State). They could slump here and there, but like the above list, I think they would stay in the dumps for long (if ever).
LikeLike
FWIW,
I think we should circulate The Longhorn Conference across ALL our home blogs and sites (home fan sites) to remind everybody who is in The Longhorn Conference just who owns them. If it gets out and circulates well enough, the shame might just get them to stand up for themselves.
sorta make it a “household” name like the Big 10 or SEC!
LikeLike
frank,
are you still out there? been awful quiet.
LikeLike
ps.. your twitter is not popping up in the right hand column.
LikeLike
New blog post is up.
LikeLike
Gratuitous post:
2009 edition of “The Top American Research Universities” ranks Pitt as in the ‘top cluster’ of public research universities with only 6 other schools (brace yourselves, Longhorns): Cal, UCLA, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pitt (there is no sequential rank, just classes). Pitt is far ahead of the next AAU school, Rutgers.
Hmmm… is academic prowess still of interest?
http://www.pittblather.com/2010/06/14/some-academic-vanity/
LikeLike
I guess not
LikeLike
Delany needs more time to study that.
LikeLike
Yep.
Forgot to add — Nebraska? Not so much.
LikeLike
My new podcast about the events of the past six months regarding expansion and some predictions about where the conference is heading next. Shout out to Frank the Tank and this blog!
http://allthatyoucant.blogspot.com/2010/07/one-month-until-kickoff.html
LikeLike