I know that it’s been a loooooong time since my last post. Let’s get right to some random thoughts:
(1) College Football Playoffs – We have seen two iterations of the College Football Playoff rankings and my mind comes back to the same question that I had when the powers that be first announced that the system would use a committee: Why is this any better than just using the AP Poll (or old Harris Poll)? (To be sure, the Coaches’ Poll is a worthless self-serving steaming pile of garbage.) The former BCS rankings were much maligned, but they were at least a little progressive in attempting to incorporate some objective computer rankings. All that I see with the new CFP rankings is a 12-person poll, which isn’t necessarily any better than other polls with much larger sample sizes. The NCAA Tournament Committee serves an important purpose for basketball since they are vetting at-large teams that much of the general public hasn’t seen before. However, a 4-team college football playoff is much more suited to a “Wisdom of Crowds” determination: the public has a fairly good sense of who it believes to be the very top teams in any given season, so a decision from a small committee isn’t necessarily going to be any better.
Having said that, I do enjoy seeing the broader array of games that matter at a national level this season. The expansion from a 2-team championship race to a 4-team playoff has a pushdown effect where there are more impact games involving many more potential postseason participants. Unfortunately, very few of those impact games have involved the Big Ten over the past couple of months. I don’t believe that this is some type of long-term permanent situation, but it’s an early indicator of issues down the road for the playoff system overall. A 4-team playoff structurally means that at least one power conference champion is going to be left out every year, and when a league like the SEC looks as if though it can garner multiple playoff sports, that means that 2 or more power conference champs can be left on the outside. A consolation Rose Bowl or BCS bowl berth was seen as a worthy prize back in the 2-team BCS championship world, but this season has already shown that 100% of the oxygen in the sport is being taken up by the 4-team playoff race.
So, I’ve spent quite a bit of time once again contemplating the next (and probably final) phase of playoff expansion: the 8-team playoff with all 5 power conference champs receiving auto-bids. If it were up to me, we would just use the traditional bowl arrangements to slot the teams:
Rose Bowl: Big Ten champ vs. Pac-12 champ
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. at-large
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 champ vs. at-large
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. at-large
I expanded quite a bit more on this proposal last year as a mind meld between the progressive (expanded playoff) and the traditional (old school bowl tie-ins). Believe me – if there’s one proposal that I’ve had on this blog that I’d want to see implemented, it would be that one by far.
(2) Big 12 Expansion – Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby was asked last week about Big 12 expansion and he had some comments that we can over-analyze here (as not much has been happening on the conference realignment front lately). Here was his response to a question about whether further conference realignment was coming (via The Oklahoman):
There are several of us that are numerically challenged. I don’t know that anybody could’ve anticipated that the Big 12 would have 10 and the Big Ten would have 14. … In our case, I don’t know that there are a lot of obvious candidates out there. We’re distributing about $25 million per school through our distributable revenue, so anybody that would be considered for expansion in our league would have to bring at least pro-rata value. … But the opportunity to move from one high-visibility conference to another is pretty slim right now. I don’t see much movement in the near- to mid-term. As we get near the end of some of these TV contracts, which would be 10 or 12 years down the road, there may be some renewed conversations. The only movement that is possible right now is from some of the secondary-level conferences that might move people into one of the five high profiles.
The super-conferences concept … has largely been a media fabrication. I have heard no serious conversation among people who do this for a living that the super-conference concept has got any traction. It’s always dangerous when the media starts to interview the rest of the media, and I think that’s where the super-conference thing came from.
Nothing too new here, although Bowlsby does seem to give some hope to non-power conference schools looking to move up to the power ranks (such as BYU, Cincinnati and UConn) in stating that the only possible movement is from the “secondary-level conferences” to one of the power leagues. Seeing that the Big 12 is the most likely conference to expand in the near future (meaning the next 3 to 5 years), anything that Bowlsby says that suggests some possible movement is something to watch. Nothing has changed from my viewpoint a year ago that the Big 12 is demographically challenged long-term (other than the state of Texas) and would benefit from a 2-team expansion (specifically with Cincinnati and BYU under my Big 12 Expansion Index). I’ve never bought the notion that the Big 12 is truly happy being at 10 schools – their leaders will always publicly state that they’re happy with their TV revenue and round-robin scheduling, but deep down, they’re dying for two obvious non-power schools to rise up (similar to TCU and Utah in the past) that they can add on.
(3) TV Contracts – Bowlsby also had some interesting comments about the impact of the Longhorn Network on the Big 12 (once again via The Oklahoman):
The Longhorn Network is a boulder in the road. It really is. They did something that almost no other institution in the country could do because of the population in the state, and we’re looking at some way to try and morph that around a little bit. … It really begs the question about, how are we going to get our sports in the years ahead? If technology changes in the next five years as much as it’s changed in the last five years, we’re not going to be getting our sports by cable TV. I don’t know what it’ll be. But increasingly, we’re using mobile devices … Google Network and Apple TV and things like that are coming into play. … I’m not sure the world needs another exclusive college cable network. Rather than trying to do what everybody else has done, I would much rather try to figure out what tomorrow’s technology is and get on the front side of that and be a part of what happens going forward and monetize that.
I think Bowlsby is trying to spin a nice tale that the Big 12 can somehow take advantage of new technologies in the way that’s different than the Big Ten Network or SEC Network. However, the Big 12 can’t sell rights to games that it doesn’t have the rights to. If anything, the best properties to leverage for digital platforms in the future are conference networks themselves – see the BTN2Go streaming capabilities and the SEC Network’s integration into WatchESPN. The most powerful conferences in the cable world are going to continue to be the most powerful conferences in the digital world.
Separately, the NBA’s record-breaking new TV deal portends some incredible cash on the horizon for the Big Ten, which is the last major sports property (college or pro) that will be on the open TV rights market for the rest of this decade once its current ESPN deal expires in 2016. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Big Ten ends up extending with its current first tier rights TV partner ESPN sooner rather than later in the same way that the NBA extended its deals with ESPN and Turner. While there is some fan sentiment out there that the Big Ten ought to separate itself from ESPN, that’s (1) unbelievably short-sighted from an exposure perspective and (2) very likely to be a poor decision financially. (Mark Hasty of Midwest Sports Fans had a great critique of Big Ten fans complaining about supposed ESPN bias against the conference. I wholeheartedly agree with his analysis – our media coverage off-the-field is honestly miles ahead of our performance on-the-field.) It is also a common fan misnomer that the Big Ten is somehow more aligned with Fox. While the BTN is a Big Ten/Fox partnership, remember that the Big Ten actually provides the top picks of college football games for ABC and ESPN every week, which is of immense importance to both the B1G and Disney. (If you live in a cave, SEC sends its top game of the week to CBS.) Ultimately, ESPN has the most cash by far and they have shown to be willing to pay up to ensure that competitors like Fox and Comcast/NBC don’t get their hands on prime sports properties. Meanwhile, there is the risk that cable TV money might not last forever with the increase of chord cutting, so waiting a few years for the open market isn’t necessarily the guarantee of greater riches that it appears a couple of years ago. The NBA made the calculation that it was better to take the cash now rather than later and I’d trust the media savvy of Adam Silver over any other commissioner in sports. I would expect the Big Ten to do the same thing.
(Image from God and Sports)
FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT 
1st!
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Was not fast enough
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Hook ’em
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Go B1G Red
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Frank,
Any thoughts as to the possibility of the B1G expanding as part of the new Tier 1 contract? Strategically it appears to be a sound option, but the logistics of it seem very complex given the Maryland ruling.
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Who would they add? All the desirable schools are locked into GoRs for a decade or more.
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Hawkeyes #4 in the CFP.
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Not 1st, but not last either
Thanks for the new post Frank
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“If you ain’t first, you’re last!”
-Ricky Bobby
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In your proposed eight-team playoff, what if the top two teams are from the Big Ten and PAC 12? You would force them to play in the quarter-finals at The Rose Bowl? Wouldn’t you want to have true seedings 1-8 with 1v8, 2v7, 3v6, and 4v5?
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Personally, no. I’d much rather have the traditional match-up since the seeds are guesses at best anyway. You’d have to beat 3 other top 8 teams for the title no matter what.
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I’d go with tradition as well. Maybe you seed the semi-finals. The winner of the Rose (1 vs 2) in that case would play the winner of the bowl with the lowest seeded favorite.
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The bowls would provide some more data that mighty make seeding easier or might make it tougher. I think I’d use a combination of rankings and geography for the semifinals.
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I just don’t think the numbers add up to supporting any new entrants on the merits (except MAYBE BYU, which is as geographically isolated as West Virginia [which has been challenging for everyone] but in the opposite direction, and could possibly present cultural issues, though that’s less of a big deal here than with the Pac-12).
Honestly I’d say that CCG reform/deregulation and the Big 12 tacking a CCG onto their existing round robin (or tacking a CCG on top of a new 8 game kinda round robin) is WAY likelier than the Big 12 adding 2+ teams and a CCG. Adding a CCG on its own makes sense financially, but I’m deeply skeptical that the Big 12 is so desperate for a CCG that they’d dilute the brand, especially if it’s reasonably likely that in the next few years they’ll have the option of adding a CCG without adding any more programs.
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I think our new TV deal will be split between Fox and ESPN/ABC. Too much inventory to put all on ESPN/ABC. Plus I think the reverse mirror/regional split of many broadcasts reduces exposure of the teams. Would rather have more truly National broadcasts as ESPN 2 etc. is a less watched network. Plus with ESPN/ABC’s current deals with other leagues the B1G’s major time slots are still the 11AM Central. A lot of fans are tired of so many B1G games on at 11AM. I think the leagues deal with Fox on the CCG is a good leading indicator of things to come. Too many other CCG on ESPN/ABC at the same time.
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GEAUX Tigers! Beat Bama!
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I can see it happening. Looks like the Tigers are getting better as the season progresses.
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B12 just needs to add BYU and UNLV and be done with it. 2 western teams, footprint in all 4 time zones, adds two new solid and growing markets, and gets to 12 for all the perks.
I know UNLV is not a team talked about often in expansion, but Vegas would be a solid town and market to add for any conference. Solid basketball tradition, and if they actually build that new football stadium(would be a condition to join to build it), it becomes a decent destination for OOC games, improves that bowl, which perhaps the B12 could poach and line a game up with the B10. B10 teams love Vegas. And so would B12 fans in the winter for hoops.
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You realize, of course, that you are suggesting the Big 12 become a conference encompassing four time zones, Morgantown to Las Vegas. Check the late 1990s’ 16-team WAC to see how well something like that worked. I’m not even certain Brigham Young plus Cincinnati would be a complete success.
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I don’t think Bowlsby was spinning. He was saying the conference cable network model wasn’t the way going forward and having the LHN made it difficult to do the future deals.
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It may or may not be what you consider a conference network (cable channel). It IS what the conference, through whatever mode of transmission, has the rights to. And espn owns UT’s non primary media rights.
There’s a reason he described it as a boulder, not just a small impediment.
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I think there are 3 key advantages to the playoff system:
1) Sportswriters are idiots. The committee isn’t (you’ve already discussed coaches).
2) Preseason bias goes away.
3) Pollsters have to defend their rankings, not just mail it in.
I think we’ve seen some significant differences vs. the polls as they aren’t tied to preseason thinking and they actually have to defend their “eyeball” tests.
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I’m still not sure there isn’t a “brand-name bias” once you leave the unbeaten ranks If both Mississippi State and Florida State lost on the same week, I would expect Miss State to take the deeper tumble.
Anyway, Frank, it’s good to have you back after nearly three months.
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1: some are, some aren’t.
2: has it?
3: why? I’d assume autonomy would remove that need.
They’ll work hard and do the job. But as Frank says its just a smaller pole selecting participants for an invitational.
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1. Then you agree with me. A lot of idiots vote in the AP Poll.
2. It has certainly lessened preseason bias at the very least. For example Ohio St. and TCU.
3. Think you totally missed my point. They meet face to face in a room and have to defend how they ranked teams. They don’t just e-mail in a ballot. If they have a questionable position, it isn’t set in stone. It gets discussed and sometimes changes-that week.
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bullet,
“2. It has certainly lessened preseason bias at the very least. For example Ohio St. and TCU.”
OSU is #13 in the AP, #14 in the CFP
TCU is #6 in both
Only UGA and Utah are 3 places different between the two polls (#17 in one, #20 in the other).
How does that show the CFP is better?
“3. Think you totally missed my point. They meet face to face in a room and have to defend how they ranked teams. They don’t just e-mail in a ballot. If they have a questionable position, it isn’t set in stone. It gets discussed and sometimes changes-that week.”
While they are supposed to bring up issues regarding why a team should be higher or lower, we don’t know that their vote even matches what they say. The votes are secret even within the committee. Nor do we know that anyone changes their mind based on the discussion.
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TCU was 3 places higher last week. Ole Miss 3 & 5, Alabama 3 lower, ND 3 & 4 lower, Ohio St. 3 lower, UCLA 3 higher, Louisville 5 & 9 higher. The CFPP forced the AP and Coaches poll to re-assess.
It doesn’t “prove” the playoff poll is better, but it certainly goes with what a lot of people believed about these teams not being fairly rated. Names and preseason rankings trumped what they had actually done on the field in the AP and Coaches. Pollsters tend to just move teams up or down based on where they started.
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bullet,
“TCU was 3 places higher last week.”
TCU won @WV last week, so the AP moved them back up. TCU jumped from #25 to #9 for beating OU. Then they dropped slightly for losing to Baylor while yielding 61 points. They’ve been slow to rise because last week was their first decent win since that loss. That’s what a poll should do.
“Ole Miss 3 & 5,”
Ole Miss had an ugly loss to LSU and should have been lower IMO. The committee is too infatuated with the SEC West for me.
“ND 3 & 4 lower,”
Other than playing FSU close, what has ND done? Beat Stanford?
“The CFPP forced the AP and Coaches poll to re-assess.”
Or did another week of games make the voters re-assess? The AP didn’t move OSU up last week, the CFP jumped them up 2 spots. How is that the AP reacting to the CFP poll?
Besides, showing a difference between the polls is only useful if we know which one is correct.
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“While they are supposed to bring up issues regarding why a team should be higher or lower, we don’t know that their vote even matches what they say. The votes are secret even within the committee. Nor do we know that anyone changes their mind based on the discussion.”
Well unless the members that have talked are lying, they say they’ve had pretty vigorous discussions and individuals have changed their minds about teams.
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bullet,
“Well unless the members that have talked are lying, they say they’ve had pretty vigorous discussions and individuals have changed their minds about teams.”
I don’t doubt the discussions part, but the votes are secret. They have no idea if anyone else has ever actually changed their mind. And I’m not saying people aren’t changing their minds, just that there is zero proof of it.
Some AP voters do multiple drafts of their ballot before submitting it, too.
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I also like it that that they’re actually using their eyes for the eye test. These folks are actually watching the games of all the top teams. Computers can’t do that, and media members often don’t have the time to do that.
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The trade off, of course, is that computers don’t see brand names or hear what ESPN has to say about teams.
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bullet,
“I think there are 3 key advantages to the playoff system:
1) Sportswriters are idiots. The committee isn’t (you’ve already discussed coaches).”
Some are, but most aren’t. More accurately the writers are generally less informed about games nationally and don’t have access to all the data the committee does.
If you gave the writers the same video and stats as the committee, they’d do as well or better. The greater numbers would allow for cancelling out some of the bias. It also reduces the power of any single vote which can help keep an idiosyncratic opinion from skewing the results.
“2) Preseason bias goes away.”
It does? How? The committee has seen all the same polls as the writers. They still basically have all the teams ranked by the number of losses just like the AP. Is FSU really the second best team, or are they staying there because they were preseason #1?
Preseason AP top 25 teams not in the CFP top 25:
9. SC 4-5
15. USC 6-3
21. TAMU 6-3
23. UNC 4-5
24. MO 7-2
25. UW 6-3
6-3 WV is #23 but all the other teams have 0-2 losses.
The only 2 loss P5 teams not in the top 25: MN, IA and MO
MO leads the SEC East, but that’s a weak division. They have no big wins, lost to IN and got killed by UGA. But if they’d started as a top 10 team, would the committee really have dropped them? The B10 teams play in the B10 so have no chance.
“3) Pollsters have to defend their rankings, not just mail it in.
I think we’ve seen some significant differences vs. the polls as they aren’t tied to preseason thinking and they actually have to defend their “eyeball” tests.”
Defend how? All their ballots are secret unlike the AP poll. Only the final poll will the committee chair even bother to explain/defend their choices, and he certainly won’t name names when he does that.
I agree with you that taking more time to watch game video and then getting together to discuss things before voting is a better process. But I think replacing the committee members with the AP voters would net at least as good and probably better results. The AP poll would be a lot better if ballots didn’t have to be rushed in Saturday night. Just change the deadline to Tuesday and have a conference call to discuss things.
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You have a lot more faith in sportswriters than I do. I see a lot of incorrect information in their articles. Some seem really lazy. Many have very big biases. Some have business biases, i.e. the ESPN voters. I have little faith in their abilities to do a reliable poll.
There are some who would be very good on a panel, but they are the minority.
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Most national sportswriters have agendas that override accurate, dispassionate reporting on events and news. Most local sportswriters are hopeless homers.
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They are given a very different task than the committee. Using that to assess how they’d act on the committee is flawed.
Put another way, you have a lot more faith in the committee members than I do. I think they’re just as biased and stubborn as the writers. I certainly saw a lot of incorrect work from them in their former jobs, too. You don’t think a sitting AD has a business bias in deciding whether a team from his conference should make the playoff?
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” You don’t think a sitting AD has a business bias in deciding whether a team from his conference should make the playoff?”
Aren’t they forced to recuse themselves from considering teams in their conferences?
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Wainscott,
“Aren’t they forced to recuse themselves from considering teams in their conferences?”
No, just from their own teams.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11353432/college-football-playoff-selection-committee-announces-recusal-policy
The College Football Playoff selection committee announced its official policy Thursday as nine of 13 committee members have been recused from voting for certain schools.
Mike Gould (Air Force); Jeff Long (Arkansas); Dan Radakovich (Clemson); Archie Manning (Mississippi); Tom Osborne (Nebraska); Pat Haden (USC); Condoleezza Rice (Stanford); Oliver Luck (West Virginia); and Barry Alvarez (Wisconsin) were the members who are recused.
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BTW, great shot of Comiskey. Went to several games there between 1983 and 1987 and always loved the atmosphere.
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@Frank
Big 12 Expansion
What do you think about the long term prospects of the Big 12 as we get closer to the GOR expiring in 2025? I see some serious threats:
– I expect to see a TV revenue gap open up between the SEC, B1G, and PAC (maybe even the ACC if the ACCN ever shows up) between the Big 12 schools not named Texas because of conference network profits. How will KU, OU, and WVU feel about that if someone comes calling?
– The PAC12’s Tier I deal expires in 2024, I’m sure they’ll contimplate expansion with their frist choice being Big 12 schools.
-The B1G, PAC, and SEC will always be looking to feed thier networks.
-If the Big Ten resets the market like you think won’t that put tremendous pressure on the ACC to expand to re-open their deal, espically if they get lapped by the PAC, SEC, and Big Ten in TV money.
-Texas is getting tons of exposure in Texas, but how much exposure to the rest of the country are they getting? Outside of an every other year noncon game, they only ever travel to the media hot beds of KS, OK, IA, and WV. Would they take a Notre Dame like deal with the ACC to increase their exposure nation wide?
So, I’ve spent quite a bit of time once again contemplating the next (and probably final) phase of playoff expansion: the 8-team playoff with all 5 power conference champs receiving auto-bids.
An eight team playoff is going to make conference championships irrevelant for the top teams. That is a pretty tough obsticle. If the Big 12 ever stops being a power conference, I see the final four being limited to the four power conference champions with a provision that a #1 (or maybe #2) ranked non-champion can relplace the lowest rated conference champion. The (new) P4 don’t have to share CCG profits with anyone. Why not make that the “round of eight.”
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Posted the non-spell checked version. Sorry.
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The Big 12 get on national networks more than anyone else. The Pac, SEC and Big 10 reserve a fair amount of their games for their network which is usually sports tier outside their region.
Of course, like the Pac 12, the Big 12 has half their games on the Fox Networks and Fox gets ratings similar to ESPN and below ABC, and FS1 is about the same as ESPN2. Unless these start to grow noticeably, that’s something the Big 10 has to consider. Right now, a lot of casual fans don’t look for games on the Fox networks.
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The Big 12 get on national networks more than anyone else
That would be pretty tough for a ten team conference.
the Big 12 has half their games on the Fox Networks and Fox gets ratings similar to ESPN and below ABC, and FS1 is about the same as ESPN2
Big 12 games on FS1 are performing a little closer to other conferences games on ESPNU than ESPN2. I can’t believe how low the ratings have been for CFB on FOX and FS1.
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If you look at last year’s SMW TV ratings, the Big 12 was on “national” networks an average of roughly 9 games per team. The others were around 6 to 7. No team cares if others are on nationally. They care about themselves. In any event, 6X14=84. That’s less than 9X10. I think the SEC was the one closest to 7, so that only gets them to 98.
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I did. To get your numbers you have to be pretty generous with with the word “national” and count ESPNU and FS2 but not BTN.
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Well, the availability of ESPNU and FS2 on a given package is dependent entirely on what your cable provider is and maybe the competence of your own local incarnation of it. Neither network is any more likely to appear in any given broad region than any other for reasons beyond what specific cable providers are available. You can’t say that about the BTN or even SECN. Of course, when SECN has the ridiculously huge distribution it does, it does seem to confuse the notion of what a “national” network is…
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My point about is getting lost in the TV contract discussion, so I’ll try and rephrase it. Outside of the marquee OOC game and the RRR what Texas games will capture the casual fan’s attention get people excited about Texas football outside of Texas? Texas coming to town (even when they are down) is a big game and should create a buzz. How long will they be willing to play and bring their buzz to under the radar places like Manhattan, Stillwater, Waco, and Lubbock?
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Did you read the article about Nebraska’s schedule?
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I did. It actually helps my point. Nebraska’s home conference schedule is so boring this year that (crap) writers are fantasizing about a conference switch. At least Nebraska can wait for the nine game schedule in 2016 for Michigan, Ohio St, and Penn St to start popping back up. Texas, thanks to the RRR, has to play boring home conference schedules until the GOR is up.
2014 Texas conference home games: Baylor, Iowa St, West Virginia, and TCU.
2014 Texas conference road: Dallas, Lawrence, Manhattan, Stillwater, and Lubbock.
2015 Texas conference home: Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech.
2015 Texas conference road: Dallas (2X), Waco, Ames, and Morgantown.
That is a very tough sell for a 100K seat stadium and not a lot of interesting places to go on the road.
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3 of those 4 next year are currently ranked. 2 have been in the top 10. Can anyone in the Big 10 or ACC match that? The Big 10 finally got a 4th team back in the rankings. And the top 2 are in the opposite division. Wonder how those Big 10 schools fill those 80-100k stadiums?
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I am not disputing that those teams are good. Those games aren’t going to excite anyone outside of hard core fans. There isn’t any team coming to Austin that anyone would say is a peer. They’re all underlings who happen to be playing good football right now. If one of those teams were to fall off the schedule would you even care or notice?
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As long as they are good, they matter.
WVU was supposed to be good their first year in the Big 12. There was a lot of hype for that game in Austin.
People are starting to pay attention to Oklahoma St. since they have become pretty good.
Houston was a big rival for Texas in the SWC. They came in and won 3 of the 1st 4 SWC titles. A&M had been bad for so long, they had slipped to #4 among rivals, behind OU, Houston & Arkansas. Houston wasn’t seen as a “peer.”
Competitiveness is essential for a rivalry.
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I think viewership on Fox changes as more leagues are covered by the network.
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It is strange how conditioned people are to going to certain channel to watch their football. Despite being broadcast OTA on CBS, literally millions of people watched the Thursday night NFL games on NFL Network.
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Part of the FS1 and FS2’s problems is that they aren’t numbered with the other sports channels.
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That is odd. They are after the assorted ESPNs and before the CBSSN/BTN/SECN on my TWC list. For some reason FXX is there with them.
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With Comcast, the sports channels are 40s and 50s (except for BTN and SECN which ware 290s). FS1 is 75. Its BET, SyFy, FS1, Spike, Oxygen in the 70s.
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FXX is there with them because it used to be Fox Soccer.
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DirecTV has 2 clear sports channel clusters: national sports channels (starting with ESPN at 206 and includes ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPNEWS, NBCSN, FS1, CBSSN, NBAtv, MLB Network, NFL Network, NHL Network, Golf Channel and Tennis Channel) and then the niche/regional sports channels in the 600s (national carriage for FS2, BTN and SEC Network and then the regional sports networks with carriage determined by your home market). So, at least on DirecTV, FS1 isn’t hard to find at all. FS2 is a little more difficult to come across if you’re not a sports fan, but most sports fans will come across it with its proximity to the BTN, SEC Network and/or your regional sports network.
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Why do the SEC and Big 10 need to feed their networks? There are only 3 TV slots on Saturday. I can’t imagine they get hardly anyone to watch when they go to the overflow channels. Any more than 14 teams and they really have excess inventory.
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I was talking about increasing the subscriber base. However, during conference play with bye weeks sometimes there is only one game on BTN.
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You were talking about subscriber base (at prime rates) and I was talking inventory. I see where the SEC is already using their overflow channel frequently. They spread conference games through the season and have the MSU/FCS, Ole Miss/FCS scattered through this part of the season. The Big 12 is talking about moving some conference games earlier (and therefore ooc later). Haven’t seen any of that movement with the Big 10 and Pac 12, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that, in order to maximize the value of their inventory and their network. Right now, they will have 10-14 games early in the season and 6-7 during conference play.
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bullet, the Big Ten has some earlier conference games in their 2017 schedule, but not many. OSU and Indiana open the season together.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/071113aab.html
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Mike,
“-If the Big Ten resets the market like you think won’t that put tremendous pressure on the ACC to expand to re-open their deal, espically if they get lapped by the PAC, SEC, and Big Ten in TV money.”
Their deal is still fairly new, so they can’t say they’re below market value already. Who can they add that would make them more money? They already have ND. They won’t steal from the B10, P12 or SEC for monetary reasons. The B12 makes more than them now plus has a GoR. Is the ACC going to benefit from adding UCF/USF? UConn? UC?
Unless ND is willing to join fully, there’s really nothing the ACC can do to make more money beyond the ACCN I don’t think.
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I would say the ACC’s recent deals were below market value when they were signed, because of a combination of utterly failing to read the market and being utterly incompetent at negotiating. If they were competent, they could have scored bigger increases one or both times they went to market (if not jumped ship to someone else the first time) and maybe launched a conference network.
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Brian – The ACC deal would be below market if the Big Ten sets the market higher in two years. Assuming ESPN would agree, the simplest way for the ACC to make more money would be to follow the SEC’s lead and extend their deal again to get the ACCN. If they don’t get their extension, it is probable the PAC and Big Ten will have their rights (PAC in 2023, B1G in 2026 if they sign a ten year deal) come up again before the ACC deal expires in 2027. Unless the rights fee (if it even exists) bubble has burst, the ACC going to be under pressure to do something to keep the ACC TV money competitive. My guess is they’ll offer Texas a ND style deal or a attempt a Big 12 raid around the time the Big 12’s deal expires in 2025 with the hope the additions can spur an extension from ESPN to bring the ACC near the market price.
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Mike,
“The ACC deal would be below market if the Big Ten sets the market higher in two years.”
Just because the B10 has been below their market value doesn’t mean the ACC is. The market may think the ACC is still getting fairly paid even after the B10 gets a raise. After all, everyone else will also still be on a fairly new deal.
“Assuming ESPN would agree, the simplest way for the ACC to make more money would be to follow the SEC’s lead and extend their deal again to get the ACCN.”
Supposedly their deal already includes the ACCN as a factor (ESPN either starts it or pays them more). Besides, I don’t think the ACC has much leverage right now.
“If they don’t get their extension, it is probable the PAC and Big Ten will have their rights (PAC in 2023, B1G in 2026 if they sign a ten year deal) come up again before the ACC deal expires in 2027.”
I’d think the B10 might want a 15 year deal to end when the BTN rights end (2031-2). All the current deals are for 12-15 years.
“Unless the rights fee (if it even exists) bubble has burst, the ACC going to be under pressure to do something to keep the ACC TV money competitive. My guess is they’ll offer Texas a ND style deal or a attempt a Big 12 raid around the time the Big 12’s deal expires in 2025 with the hope the additions can spur an extension from ESPN to bring the ACC near the market price.”
I’m not sure the B12 schools will see much value in that. They see the travel issues for WV in the B12. Why would OU or UT sign up for that in the ACC?
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Brian –
Just because the B10 has been below their market value doesn’t mean the ACC is. The market may think the ACC is still getting fairly paid even after the B10 gets a raise. After all, everyone else will also still be on a fairly new deal.
I’m talking about the Big Ten changing the market making all the deals under valued. We just saw the NBA get a 3X bump in their rights. If the Big Ten does something similar (not guaranteed) we should expect the new PAC deal in 2023 to at least be similar in value to what ever deal the Big Ten signs. No matter what the market says the value of the ACC should be, ACC detractors (remember FSU trustee Andy Haggard) will have a field day. We all saw what silly West Virginia bloggers could do the perception of the ACC, imagine if someone competent was banging that drum.
Supposedly their deal already includes the ACCN as a factor (ESPN either starts it or pays them more). Besides, I don’t think the ACC has much leverage right now.
Supposedly they would be offered the same terms as the SEC. To me, if they get the ACCN, that means extension. There isn’t much concrete out there either way though. I agree they don’t have much leverage, which is why I expect them to be predatory again.
I’d think the B10 might want a 15 year deal to end when the BTN rights end (2031-2). All the current deals are for 12-15 years.
That makes sense, but if you look at the chart at the bottom of this SBJ article you’ll see a similar hole in rights fees toward the end of the 2020s as you do now. I would not be surprised to see the Big Ten try to have their rights be the last rights available until the 2030s.
I’m not sure the B12 schools will see much value in that. They see the travel issues for WV in the B12. Why would OU or UT sign up for that in the ACC?
Texas might look at taking a ND style deal. They get their own tv deal, keep the LHN, increased exposure on the east coast, and more interesting games (IMHO) in Austin. Here’s a prototype schedule:
3 guarantee games
5 ACC games
HaH ND (or P5)
RRR vs OU
HaH A&M (or Tech, TCU, etc)
HaH P5
If done right, that’s seven games in Austin, four away, and the RRR.
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Mike,
If somehow UT did that there would no longer be a P5. We’d be rearranging into four, probably CCG’s become qtr finals with conf champs to semis. This would be the leverage that would force ND to full membership. B1G and PAC probably like that, SEC not so much. ACC might think they benefit by gaining ND fully so wouldn’t adamantly resist. Why would OU continue the RRR after being hung out to dry? Does TT get an ACC invite too? UT would be killing the viability of the situation you think they would want, which I highly doubt to begin with.
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@cc –
If somehow UT did that there would no longer be a P5. We’d be rearranging into four, probably CCG’s become qtr finals with conf champs to semis.
That’s what I was arguing in the post that started this thread. I think they would become defacto semis. There would still be a committee and a provision for a high enough ranked team outside of a P4 conference champion to make the playoffs. I just don’t think you can explicitly keep the G5 out of the discussion but a “glass ceiling” would be acceptable.
Why would OU continue the RRR after being hung out to dry?
I don’t know if OU is being hung out to dry. Even if they were, the RRR is important enough to both to keep it going.
Does TT get an ACC invite too?
In my scenario, UT would be going independent. If that were to happen, I don’t know where the rest of the Big 12 would end up.
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Mike,
“I’m talking about the Big Ten changing the market making all the deals under valued.”
And I’m saying maybe their are multiple markets, one for the B10 and SEC, a middle one for the B12 and P12, and a lower one for the ACC. A B10 jump doesn’t necessarily mean the ACC is undervalued (it also doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t).
“That makes sense, but if you look at the chart at the bottom of this SBJ article you’ll see a similar hole in rights fees toward the end of the 2020s as you do now. I would not be surprised to see the Big Ten try to have their rights be the last rights available until the 2030s.”
Entirely possible. And ESPN will have a say in how long the deal is, too.
“Texas might look at taking a ND style deal. They get their own tv deal, keep the LHN, increased exposure on the east coast, and more interesting games (IMHO) in Austin.”
That’s fine for football, but I think they see all the other sports as a major obstacle to that sort of deal.
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“I don’t know if OU is being hung out to dry. Even if they were, the RRR is important enough to both to keep it going.”
OU/OkSU’s flirtation with the PAC brought the expression that the RRR isn’t a given.
Basically you’re saying UT could go independent. They always could have, but haven’t. And being indy has gotten increasingly problematic over the past few decades.
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@Brian –
That’s fine for football, but I think they see all the other sports as a major obstacle to that sort of deal.
The ACC is a better basketball and baseball league. Travel might be an issue.
@cc –
OU/OkSU’s flirtation with the PAC brought the expression that the RRR isn’t a given.
It was played OOC for a long time. As I understand it, the game is very important to both. I think they’ll find a way.
Basically you’re saying UT could go independent. They always could have, but haven’t. And being indy has gotten increasingly problematic over the past few decades.
I’m not saying its perfect, but when the Big 12 GOR expires, it will be a tempting option. IMHO indy Texas is the only way A&M gets back on UT’s FB schedule.
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“…but when the Big 12 GOR expires, it will be a tempting option.”
It was an option before the GOR.
A better question is how long does ESPN own all rights not currently the B12’s? They contractually have a huge say in what UT can do.
If UT choses to leave the B12 (which I think unlikely), it would likely be westward with three others in tow.
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Brian: “And I’m saying maybe their are multiple markets, one for the B10 and SEC, a middle one for the B12 and P12, and a lower one for the ACC. A B10 jump doesn’t necessarily mean the ACC is undervalued (it also doesn’t necessarily mean they aren’t).”
Generically, that is not implausible as we move to more revenue from digital distribution … the distribution of value in digital distribution markets tend to be not only exponential but with a big proportion gap between Tier I and Tier II, and so on down the line, so often ends up with a jackpot for a few and a drop in income opportunities for the majority. Cable sports already had that exponential distribution, but it could get steeper.
But the devil is always in the details, and the ACC has substantially expanded its conference footprint. As that expansion gets bedded down, its quite possible that the ACC sticks in a second tier alongside the Big12 and Pac12.
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@cc –
If UT choses to leave the B12 (which I think unlikely), it would likely be westward with three others in tow.
I don’t discount either outcome as a possible option. My point in the first post was to show the other four power conferences have incentives to expand and the Big 12 has threats.
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Hi Frank –
Did you happen to see the article from a couple of weeks ago about how happy Florida State is to still be in the ACC? (I wish I would have copied down the address as I can’t find it now!?) One of the points the author made was that the Big Ten may not hit the jackpot as expected with their next television deal because the ratings for college football have been so dismal on Fox Sports 1. They may not be able to justify a bidding war with ABC/ESPN or NBC for B1G games.
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Found it! http://www.tomahawknation.com/2014/10/9/6951519/the-acc-gave-up-cash-for-exposure-in-its-2010-tv-deal-does-that-look
Here’s part of what it had to say: “The terribly low FOX ratings could also affect the B1G’s leverage in their upcoming negotiations. It’s hard to imagine that the B1G can realistically consider moving 100% of content to FOX, given the viewership. It would be death to pull all programming off ESPN. That’s one negotiating weapon they’re not going to be able to wield anymore, which may keep the B1G’s impending payouts slightly less astronomical than many were predicting a couple years ago.”
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Only fans have talked about moving everything off of ESPN. Delany et al certainly won’t do it and ESPN knows that. But they could move a package of prime time games to Fox or NBC, or better games to BTN. Ratings will follow the better games, especially if we’re just talking broadcast networks. ESPN may well pay more to prevent that. After all, the B10 is what fills their early slots. Besides, part of the negotiation is looking at the bumps ESPN has given others. That sets a market for how much games are actually worth to them.
An FSU blogger isn’t better informed about these issues than all the media consultants saying the B10 will get a huge bump.
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Remember, the B1G Title Game on Fox does do well in the ratings. Part of that is the conference name brand. Part is that ESPN does hype the B1G title game because its in their interest to do so, between the Playoff and having a large chunk of overall B1G rights.
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My hunch is that some sort of ESPN-Fox split is what the B1G ends up going with. The Big Ten can attract eyeballs to Fox and FS1 that the Big 12 and Pac-12 haven’t, and Fox probably knows that.
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Yeah, I don’t think the B1G is too keen on gambling on its teams drawing viewers to FS1, and ESPN is not too keen on risking B1G teams actually drawing viewers to FS1. The incentives are too well-defined that ESPN will lock up rights to all non-broadcast and non-BTN B1G CFB games.
I could see a split where Fox broadcast gets a primetime game in weeks ABC is showing other conferences in primetime.
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I think ESPN actually proposed working with Fox on the Pac 12 deal as they didn’t have enough time slots to cover all the Pac wanted. And the last thing they wanted was a new participant like NBC Sports getting in on the action. So they might not fight too hard to get all of it as everyone is wanting national coverage, not regional.
I could see the Big 10 wanting a split. I doubt they would move all of it off ESPN.
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Chris Belevaqua, at that time of working with the Pac, is the one who came up with the idea. Ran it by Scott and Weiberg, and then you they approached ESPN and Fox.
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I do think it is worth noting that NBC, CBS, and Fox almost never have a 12:00 PM college football game. NBC and CBS also almost never have a Saturday night game.
The Big Ten may not be so interested in entertaining the idea of having games on FS1, let alone NBCSN or CBSSN, but I can’t help but wonder if they would be enticed by the idea of answering the SEC’s weekly, national, over-the-air exposure with its own deal with either NBC or CBS at night, or even one in the 12 PM slot with Fox also as an option.
Short of an over-the-air, SEC-like deal, I agree that sticking with ESPN may be the most sensible move to make.
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*Sticking with ESPN for all non-BTN coverage, that is, as opposed to splitting that coverage between ESPN/ABC and another company.
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I could see the Fox paying for the number one Big Ten game the way CBS has the number one SEC game.
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One thing to note. Last year Fox only had 1 game in the top 25 in ratings. It was the Big10 ccg.
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Fox really needs the Big Ten badly.
The Big 12, except for WVU, is far from both the heavily populated east coast and from heavily populated California. Outside of OU and Texas, it doesn’t have many teams who can draw national audiences, despite the success of programs like Baylor, TCU, K-State, and Oklahoma State over the past few years. The ratings potential for Fox Big 12 games is going to be limited. Likewise, the Pac-12 has its limitations as well. The games feature teams way, way on the other side of the country even from east Texas, let alone Midwestern, southeastern, or northeastern states. They are on very late, and even though that gets them an exclusive time spot, it is often more of an afterthought in the minds of viewers.
Neither the ACC nor the SEC are options to help boost Fox’s CFB TV ratings. The Big Ten is, potentially. And withe NBA off the table, Fox has to be unbelievably motivated to at least get the top B1G game, even if it means ESPN would get the remainder of the non-BTN games.
In other words, it isn’t quite an apples to oranges comparison between ABC or CBS and Fox. One has the most popular league, and the other has #2, #3, #4, and #5. Fox has only two out of #3-5 (not sure what the order of ACC, Pac, and B12 are). With the B1G in tow, and off of ABC, maybe the ratings pendulum swings more favorably for Fox.
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Go Blue!
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ESPN does need some inventory so they they sell the B1G like they sell the ACC and SEC.
I had never realized how great ACC football was until ESPN reminded me of it daily, in the months after they had purchased the ACCs media rights.
The B1G really needs to be careful how flexible they are on game start times to fit TV time slots. There has been some mention of how bad 11am local start times are. Multiple 7pm local or later start times are infinitely worse.
For example, look at Arizona State’s schedule.
4 of their 6 home games start at 7pm local or later.
There’s complaints that fans aren’t attending the games. no sh!t.
Start them at a normal time.
http://arizonasports.com/58/1780133/A-fans-view-of-ASU
I think the PAC12 compromised too much on start times with ESPN, taking the WACs old ultra-late time slot in exchange for a few extra bucks. Does anyone on the east coast even know the PAC12 plays football. All the important games kick after 2/3s of the country is asleep.
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@dtwphx – A lot of the B1G scheduling so many 11 am local starts has been the conference’s choice since they have a much more limited prime time schedule. ESPN and BTN would actually much rather have more late afternoon and prime time games than those early starts. For whatever reason, there’s actually a strong faction in the Big Ten that likes those early starts (see the insistence of many Michigan and Ohio State fans to play their rivalry game at 12 pm ET even though TV interests would definitely push it later in the day every year if they had their way). Personally, I hate them, but I live in the Central Time Zone where it’s tougher to tailgate for very long at that start time (or, if you’re a student, wake up from the night before).
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Unless you want to play and watch in an oven, playing evenings is almost a requirement in the desert. It really is a safety concern for both fans and players for a significant part of the year.
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7pm starts are necessary in phoenix in September, not in October or November.
The number of late starts early in the season should discourage late starts later in the season.
It’s nice during the day in phoenix october and november.
ASU should refuse all late starts in October and November (if they could), due to the fact they’re required to have them during their september games.
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The Big Ten has a bunch of people like Brian who pine for the good old days before money infested college football and delude themselves into thinking it isn’t basically a pro league that doesn’t have to pay their players.
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Frank the Tank,
“A lot of the B1G scheduling so many 11 am local starts has been the conference’s choice since they have a much more limited prime time schedule.”
It’s only 11 am for less than half of the conference. I’d be fine with only the East hosting noon games.
I’m sure glad we added November night games so everyone could watch that important OSU/IL game at 8pm in near-freezing weather with a sub-freezing wind chill. That’s so much better than a noon kickoff and playing the game in the sunshine.
“ESPN and BTN would actually much rather have more late afternoon and prime time games than those early starts.”
ESPN has to fill their noon slots with somebody. So does the BTN. I’m sure the B10 would be happy to allow more 3:30 starts, but that isn’t what the networks seem to want from the B10. They want night games.
“For whatever reason, there’s actually a strong faction in the Big Ten that likes those early starts”
Because football is meant to be played in daylight. And because noon is as close as you can get to the traditional starting time of 1:30 (before TV moved games into windows). And because you can get home (or part way, at least) before dinner after the game. And because it’s much easier and safer to drive home in bad weather in the afternoon than at night. And because you don’t need to get a motel room. And because fewer fans get as blindingly drunk before a noon game. And because you can go home and watch other games, including the big national ones, after yours ends.
“(see the insistence of many Michigan and Ohio State fans to play their rivalry game at 12 pm ET even though TV interests would definitely push it later in the day every year if they had their way).”
TV has other rivalries they can show later in the day. It’s like saying the Rose Bowl should move to 8pm if TV wanted the change to make more money. The Game is an early kickoff. That’s part of what makes it what it is. They made the mistake of moving it to 3:30 in 2006 but hopefully that doesn’t happen again. Unfortunately, it’s more likely to happen again since both stadiums have permanent lights now. The ADs are pretty firm about not moving it to prime time, though.
“Personally, I hate them, but I live in the Central Time Zone”
Mistake #1
“where it’s tougher to tailgate for very long at that start time”
I never was big on tailgating, certainly not for an extended time.
“(or, if you’re a student, wake up from the night before).”
I never found it hard to get up to go to a noon game. Of course, I was getting up for an OSU game and you were getting up for an IL game. Maybe that was the problem, not the time?
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“For whatever reason, there’s actually a strong faction in the Big Ten that likes those early starts.”
It must be the power brokers. Nearly every Iowa fan I’ve ever spoken to prefers the old school 1pm kick. Same with the Wisky and Illinois fans I know.
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greg,
“It must be the power brokers. Nearly every Iowa fan I’ve ever spoken to prefers the old school 1pm kick. Same with the Wisky and Illinois fans I know.”
Unfortunately, TV has taken that option away. They’ve been forcing the 12, 3:30 or prime time windows. I think many schools and fans would prefer the old early afternoon starts. Since they can’t, many schools have preferred the noon start to avoid needing lights for the end of the game.
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The problem with night games is that if you live 2 hours from the stadium, you’re required to get a hotel room, unless you enjoy getting home at 2 or 3am.
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? NBC and CBS have at least one Saturday night game a year, and CBS has close to at least one noon start per year. Are they really that much rarer than ABC noon starts, especially once you factor out the RRR and OSU/Michigan?
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I think he was considering the ESPN/ESPN2 noon starts as part of the ABC family.
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The next few months should be quite fun. 🙂
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I still believe that any college football playoff system should be restricted to conference champions. All conference champions, by the way, MAC, Sun Belt, et al included. A playoff has nothing to do with determining the “best” team. That really isn’t possible without every team playing each other. A playoff is about determining a champion. Each conference sends its champion to the national playoff and the winner of that is the National Champion. That’s simple, clean, elegant and everybody knows the rules. Now selection committee b.s.
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And I would find a way to include independents when the deserve a spot in a playoff like Notre Dame a couple of years back.
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I still wonder if the Big Ten wouldn’t be interested in expanding into the South. Schools like Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Ga Tech. Even Clemson, FSU and Miami (FL). I’d even bring in the three military academies. Surely that collection of teams would bring enough revenue to “pay their way” into the conference. And then the Big Ten has an even bigger recruiting footprint. And lots of negotiation power.
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The first four you mentioned — UVa, UNC, GaTech and Duke — fit B1G criteria both academically and athletically, and often have been discussed as contenders here. (This is assuming UNC athletics doesn’t receive a program-changing “death penalty” a la Southern Methodist in 1987.) If either Florida school or even Clemson gains AAU status (not likely for Clemson), they could be in the mix, too. None of the military academics have the type of athletic program that would fit in with the B1G — and given their mission, I frankly wouldn’t want them to (even if the idea of Maryland vs. Navy in all sports under the Big Ten aegis has some tantalizing appeal to it for this College Park alumnus).
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Having spent sometime in NC for business I just don’t think there is a cultural fit between fan bases. I am sure it would be a good fit for the leadership of the institutions but the fan bases/alumni need to be considered as well. I think long-term for the B1G it is probably in its best interest for the ACC to survive. The Big 12 on the other hand could dissolve with some going to the ACC and some to Pac 12 or maybe even the B1G.
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Kevin, I understand your point about cultural fit. I believe that by adding all the teams I mentioned, the resulting ultra-conference would be able to keep different cultural identities. You’d have an ACC side and a Big Ten side. The only thing they would have to agree on would be to maximize their monetary income. And that’s pretty easy to do: get the max TV contract you can.
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I understand the AAU requirement and all the academic stuff and as Kevin says about the cultural fit. However, I believe the Big Ten needs to forget about those criteria and go big. If the demographic/economic shifting continues the way it is now, the Big Ten is going to have a very difficult time competing on the football field. Now, I’m not saying this is the right thing to do from the standpoint of their missions as institutes of higher learning. But, they’ve already compromised all those principles for money. Why not go all in?
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If the B10 goes super size, does that actually help with the demographic issues? You’re basically talking about two separate conferences with a small scheduling agreement in the revenue sports. That won’t really help the B10 gain access to those areas.
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You would have to have an expansion that takes both a mix of ACC schools and maybe some mid-South dogs (Tulane, Memphis, OK State if TX-OK alone join the Pac, perhaps Rice if you want to remain true to institutional integrity) and realign more or less along N-S corridors to ensure that the Paul Bunyan/Swede schools (UNL, Iowa, MN, WI) and UI/NU/PU/IU arent left out in some sort of demographic/talent purgatory.
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Why take any mid-south dogs? Find a way to get Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas plus 3 more from the ACC.
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I read a possible scenario that may shake some of those schools loose. What if Texas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Florida State and Clemson decided that they’d be better off if they found a conference of their own? Such a collection of schools would be compelling for other schools to join in. Let’s say it’s Texas, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma? Notre Dame would want to play some schools in the East. So Pitt, Syracuse and Boston College join up. West Virginia would almost certainly be part. Louisville would join to help bridge the gap. Then it becomes a matter of who the last four would be.
I could then see the Big Ten offer Kansas, Virginia, UNC and Duke and the SEC offer Virginia Tech and NC State. That means it’s a race between Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Wake Forest and maybe a move up from the G5. Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech become the Central Time Zone outposts for the PAC. TCU and Baylor stay in the proposed conference. That leaves two more spaces for a BYU, Connecticut or Cincinnati. Wake might then move down to the American.
Southwest: Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor
Northeast: Notre Dame, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College
Southeast: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami
National: BYU, Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia
If the PAC refuses those four I mentioned then go to 20 teams
BYU, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, TCU
Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College
Louisville, FSU, Miami, GT, Clemson
The SEC could look like this:
TAMU, AR, LSU, MO
MS, Miss St, Alabama, Auburn
KY, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
NC State, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida
The Big Ten could look like this:
KS, NE, IA, MN, WI, NU
IL, PU, IN, MSU, UM, OSU
PSU, RU, UMD, UVA, Duke, UNC
Don’t take it personally if you don’t like my idea. It’s just an idea on what it would take to restart realignment madness. It’s certainly an intriguing idea, especially the 16-school idea I just mentioned.
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How are they shaking loose all these teams under GoRs? Or was this scenario for the mid-2020s?
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Nice to read your thoughts again Frank. My thoughts:
1. I am firmly in the camp that says an 8 team playoff would be very bad for regular season viewership long term. A reason we have so many nationally relevant games is that there are no automatic bids and losses across the country effect a great many teams. When I have the time, I’m watching games involving Kansas State, TCU, Florida State, Oregon, several SEC teams, etc because I know my team might well not control it’s destiny. Even if Ohio State was undefeated and did, I’d be hoping one of those lost so that we might be able to afford a loss. Fanbases across the country are doing the same thing either because their team is stands a chance or they are casual observers who know a loss really matters.
If you change that to any set-up with automatic bids though, then most that interest I naturally have in the rest of the country slips away (I’d still care, but that’s as a college football junkie only). I think the sport would gradually become much more regionalized again for the regular season with Midwestern fans mostly concerned with the Big Ten, west coast fans with the PAC-12, etc, but with many fewer games that would draw at current levels.
I know the counter example people often point to is the NFL, but I think the NFL is a different beast, especially when you add in betting and fantasy.
2. I agree that if 2 great programs emerge the Big 12 would jump at them. That said, I don’t think they are going to be doing any reaching and actually think the 10 team model is going to work out pretty well. There are issues to be sure, but money only has to be divided 10 ways (including an equal share of CFP money which goes further with fewer members), the round robin is nice, and if the CFP is anything like the BCS, the lack of a CCG is more likely to help Big 12 teams than hurt them (it will probably do both, but I’d guess help more).
3. If we did go to an 8 team playoff, I would want your model. I sadly don’t think they’d even seriously consider it.
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Despite the rhetoric, the P5 have really done more since the BCS to separate their branding from the G5. Bowlsby has seemed to do less of this than others, talking about “higher resource” conferences.
I think its going to be harder for the G5.
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I join you in being firmly against playoff expansion. Even if I felt it was a good idea for college athletes to play even more high-level football games in a season, I would not be a fan. Auto-bids would certainly remove national interest from many games, and several top teams would rightly feel they could safely drop a game at the end of the year.
I also may be the only one to say this, but I’ve found the playoff discussion has hurt my enjoyment of college football this season. In seemingly every game (regardless of the participants) the announcers wander away from covering the game in order to drone on about the playoffs (and their own personal brackets) incessantly. It’s worse than the BCS ever was.
I have the same feelings when I go into a store the first week in November and they’re playing Christmas music; there’s a time & a place for everything, and that isn’t it.
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“I also may be the only one to say this, but I’ve found the playoff discussion has hurt my enjoyment of college football this season.”
You’re not the only one, and I’ve actually seen some media members complain about the CFP coverage.
Unfortunately, the CFP dominates ALL discussion.
I subscribe to a bunch of college football podcasts, and they are obsessed with the playoff. I’ve stopped listening to most of them, because the discussion focuses on a limited number of teams, and half the teams will lose again so its pointless to speculate until we get much closer.
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Ditto.
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Maybe the problem is the journalism schools. We can blame it on Syracuse and [redacted] which are known for journalism. I get really tired of all the coverage of the “horse race” in politics. The press ignores the issue and talks about who is “winning” even though no one has any votes yet. That’s the same thing that is happening with this playoff discussion.
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Don’t forget NW.
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I agree. The playoff system is killing interest for teams out of the top ten. Actually if you want good college football arguments, you should be opposed to any playoff series (or the BCS). 1970 was probably the best year for football fans: three polls nominated three national champions–Nebraska, Ohio State and Texas. It doesn’t get any better than that.
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Completely agree that the playoff is somewhat killing the regular season. Obviously we’ve crossed the Rubicon but I have no appetite for an 8 team playoff. Might as well kill the bowl system and there will be very little interest other than for the top 8-10 teams.
I think Delany thought this playoff would motivate schools to schedule better OOC games. I think it may do the opposite as the committee is only giving credit for wins and not so much for losses. They basically said a loss is a loss. In basketball they give teams credit for their tough schedules and even their good losses. Why would anyone want to go on the road to play an Oregon etc.. ? People may do neutral site games but it discourages home and homes. Really unfortunate.
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And for many, many people, or at least the powers that be, the reaction was “What! Three national champions! We can’t have that! We need a playoff to determine a single national champion!”
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No, the powers that be didn’t have that reaction at all. Otherwise it wouldn’t have taken over 40 years to get a playoff. Some fans wanted it (a lot fewer then than now). It was fan pressure plus the realization of the money available that made it happen.
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I think lots of fans are with you on this (and some of us predicted it). The playoff will make more money but it’s hurting the sport I used to love.
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I don’t agree that its hurting it at all. But the “horse race” discussions can be annoying.
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When two mid tier teams who have no shot at the top level are playing a good game, I want to watch and be entertained by that game. I don’t want to have broadcast time usurped to discuss teams not involved, and often not even in the conference or region of the teams being broadcast, in a kind of in game Sports Center type of episode. This happens all the time and does diminish everyone not in the championship discussion. You know, 90+% of football and their fan bases.
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And even if a top team is playing, I’d rather focus on the current game than how it impacts their standing. Now everything is about playoff contention or else irrelevant.
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I guess I’ve been watching Fox, FS1 & CBS a lot and hadn’t noticed it so much.
ESPN today doesn’t seem to talk about anything but the playoff. Its just constant. That’s a problem with ESPN constantly promoting its January product, not a playoff issue. The discussion isn’t so constant elsewhere.
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I was just subjected to a espnesque litany of how the playoff has created the most interest in college FB, ever.
On a local radio pre game broadcast.
Before a game involving two absolute non contenders.
I wouldn’t mind mentioning the impact of important top games, but they would be important today, during BCS, or in the seventies. The post season format does not decide/create their importance.
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Not a lot of B10 games on the channels you mentioned.
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I was watching Georgia-Kentucky today and flipped briefly to Iowa-Minnesota on ESPN2. Nothing but the playoff race talk.
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A couple of things I don’t understand about the Selection Committee:
1. Why are they ranking the teams 25 deep? Just because the AP poll did for however many years? Seems like a waste of their time to bother deciding who should be 24th and who 25th, for example. Why do more far more work than you need to and open yourself up to more criticism when the fans of the 24th ranked team are offended that they aren’t 23rd.
Imagine if the NCAA basketball selection committee put out a ranking of 250 teams in January. What a stupid waste of time that would be.
2. Why rank the teams at all right now? It’s better than starting with preseason rankings, of course, but totally irrelevant to say “if the season ended today, these 4 would be in” when the season doesn’t end today and several of the top teams still have to play each other. I think once you crown someone as the #1 team in October, you are going to be biased towards them in December, for example.
If they must release anything now, I would suggest putting out an unranked list of the top ten teams meriting discussion for the 4 team playoff after each week. That way you don’t have everyone screaming out when the committee rewards a team in the last week for winning their conference title by moving them into the playoff.
Imagine the outcry if Big 12 Champion TCU were rewarded for winning their conference and moved ahead of Alabama (who didn’t win even their division in this scenario) into the 4th playoff spot. But, if the committee hadn’t been ranking Alabama as “better” than TCU for the last month of the season, there would be much less ruckus.
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The “unranked” list is a good idea, reminds me of that poster who lists the remaining undefeated teams and “draw deads” after every weekend. I would also add a filter of “not to be considered if there are more than 1 FCS and/or 3 G5 teams on a team’s schedule”. in terms of pushback, I would imagine an exception might be sought for intra-state games that are mainly to help a lower-tier program (e.g. UCLA hosting Sac State, OSU and Youngstown, LSU – McNeese and the like).
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I’ll take Boise, BYU and ECU over Indiana, Kansas and Washington St. any day.
Too much is made of this “P5” stuff. And some is marketing by the bottom of the P5 to separate themselves from the G5. They have already separated themselves financially.
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1) The number 25 was certainly chosen for tradition, but it also has the advantage that nearly all of the teams the committee slots in a bowl will have a rank, so you will know exactly where they stand. Remember, they’re not just slotting the 4 playoff bowls; they’re assigning teams to 6 bowls, including some automatic bids. For instance, if FSU wins the ACC and gets one of the spots in the Sugar or Rose, they will choose the next best ACC team for the Orange Bowl. Now, they could just declare who that team is without numbers, but with a list fans will be able to see (for example) #19 Duke got in just ahead of #21 Clemson. That said, there still might be an unranked team getting an automatic bid (there was no non-power 5 team ranked this week).
The conferences with more good teams (SEC right now, probably the Pac 12 & maybe the Big 12), will definitely be happy that there are rankings, as they will remind the public how many of their teams are being skipped over to bring in another ACC team or non-Power 5 team. That in turn, helps give prestige to their bowls outside the system.
2) I think it was probably a good idea to release an early version last week, as it helps everyone understand how they’re looking at the field. But I think most people agree it doesn’t make sense to do it weekly (except for ESPN’s ratings), as it probably keeps the committee from truly starting fresh when they rank teams at the end of the year.
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Arch Stanton,
“1. Why are they ranking the teams 25 deep?”
Because it provides the pool of teams with a shot at the big 6 bowls. Knowing how close you are to #12 is important. Also, the top G5 champ gets a big bowl slot and is unlikely to be in smaller poll than 25. In addition, the fans are used to 25.
“2. Why rank the teams at all right now?”
http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-faqs
These interim rankings will provide transparency and will enable teams and fans to understand the current state of play.
In other words, the fans want to know where the teams stand so they know who to root for and against. It also helps show how the committee thinks, so fans can check that the same reasoning holds in the future (we value X over Y, etc). It will also inform schools on scheduling decisions (Was MSU playing at OR helpful or would a cupcake have been better?).
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Great article from the SBJ, “With major media rights deals done, how will networks grow revenue?”
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2014/11/03/In-Depth/Networks-main.aspx
At the bottom of the article includes a chart detailing the amount and length of TV deals. The chart shows that the SEC extended their entire ESPN deal (not just the SECN) through 2034.
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First I’ve seen numbers on the SEC contract-$6 billion over 20 years. That comes to an average of $21.4 million/school. If you use a flat 3% escalation that comes to $18.3 million average over the next 10 years. Coupled with their CBS contract, that totals $22.2 million. If you use a 4% escalation, it comes to $21.2.
Of course, their numbers are rounded, so you can’t be particularly precise. If that $6 billion is actually $5.8 or $6.2, that changes those numbers by about $.7 million/school/year.
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Teams should be ranked by fewest losses, ties broken by a sos formula which is trumped only by a P5 conference championship. (For example, a 12-1 P5 champ would outrank any other 1 loss non-champ; for 2 one loss P5 champs, sos is the tie-breaker.) A committee should be empowered to intervene only in extraordinary circumstances provided it offers a detailed public justification.
The new system will prove untenable; its too subjective and forces situations which vary wildly from year to year to fit a rigid template. Alas, Frank is right about the inevitablilty of an 8 team playoff with P5 autobids, sooner rather than later.
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/11/05/analysis-penn-state-ncaa-presidents-jerry-sandusky-case-emails/18544131/
Editorial on why presidents shouldn’t be running college sports.
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Frank,
“So, I’ve spent quite a bit of time once again contemplating the next (and probably final) phase of playoff expansion: the 8-team playoff with all 5 power conference champs receiving auto-bids. If it were up to me, we would just use the traditional bowl arrangements to slot the teams:
Rose Bowl: Big Ten champ vs. Pac-12 champ
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. at-large
Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 champ vs. at-large
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. at-large”
I don’t see the SEC and B12 splitting up. I’d prefer yours for the sake of tradition, but more likely is:
Rose Bowl: Big Ten champ vs. Pac-12 champ
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Big 12 champ
Fiesta Bowl: at-large vs. at-large
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. at-large
We need a few years of the current system to see whether the G5 look like they should get an autobid in an expanded system. I tend to think we’ll see this:
Playoff:
Quarters:
Rose Bowl: Big Ten champ vs. Pac-12 champ
Sugar Bowl: SEC champ vs. Big 12 champ
Fiesta Bowl: at-large vs. at-large
Orange Bowl: ACC champ vs. at-large
Semis (consider rankings and geography, but this is default):
Citrus Bowl: Rose Bowl winner vs Orange Bowl winner
Alamo Bowl: Sugar Bowl winner vs Fiesta Bowl winner
NCG:
Neutral site:
Major bowls:
Peach Bowl: at-large vs. at-large*
Cotton Bowl: at-large vs. at-large*
* – Highest ranking G5 champ is guaranteed a spot in one of the major bowls if they don’t make the playoff.
Major bowls and semis sites rotate (a semi 1 year, a bowl the next).
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If this happens, the Rose stays Big 10/Pac 12 and the Sugar Big 12/SEC and the Orange ACC vs. ?. Each of those 5 would keep their money from those bowls. Only the 4th playoff bowl, any 5th or 6th NYD bowls, half the Orange and the semi-finals and finals would be pooled. More important than the money to the conferences is the fact that they would control the revenue streams from those games.
I would prefer an 8 team playoff to have the quarter-finals at home sites in December, but I think its more likely they do it on NYD.
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bullet,
“I would prefer an 8 team playoff to have the quarter-finals at home sites in December, but I think its more likely they do it on NYD.”
I’d prefer the earlier start, but I just don’t see true home sites as viable for many northern schools (especially if TV demands night games). Maybe regional neutral sites could cover for them using the northern domes.
Quarters – mid-December (2 weeks after the CCGs, 1 week after Army/Navy)
Semis – 1/1
NCG – 2nd Monday of January
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Would think having quarter final games in Mid-December would be a very tough sell with the University Presidents given that time is usually Finals week. .
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I don’t think there is any solution they’d really like. If they don’t start until 1/1, it goes to far into January. I don’t think right around Christmas is when they want to start, either.
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Timing is difficult unless you are willing to move the season forward one week. Really a typical home/road game doesn’t have much impact on finals. Some basketball teams play then. FCS, Division II and Division III play games then. But it isn’t really a good time for TV and it gets worse as you get closer to Christmas.
After NYD, you start to conflict with the NFL playoffs and run into the issue of 3 straight off-campus sites. Also you get into the 2nd semester. I don’t know why the latter is an issue, but the presidents talk about it.
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All your seniors would have to attend fall semester classes to be eligible if the season crossed over. 🙂
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I’m not sure they stick with that 6th bowl they have now. Noon on NYE just isn’t a good time slot. So you get
Afternoon NYE bowl 5 Wildcard vs. Wildcard
Night NYE Fiesta or Cotton Wildcard vs. Wildcard playoff
Noon NYD Orange ACC vs. Wildcard playoff
Afternoon NYD Rose Big 10 vs. Pac 12 playoff
Night NYD Sugar Big 12 vs. SEC playoff
One of the 5 wildcard teams would be the G5 champ. I don’t see them automatically getting one of the 3 wildcard playoff slots though.
Peach and Fiesta would make good semi-final sites. Peach is relatively accessible and Fiesta has good weather. Cotton tends to have cold weather like the Peach and is west of most of the schools like the Fiesta, so it might be better as a quarter-final
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bullet,
“I’m not sure they stick with that 6th bowl they have now. Noon on NYE just isn’t a good time slot.”
If you build it, sports fans will come. People have always doubted moving games into new time slots, but it almost always works for football. Let’s give the current system a few years before declaring it a failure.
“One of the 5 wildcard teams would be the G5 champ. I don’t see them automatically getting one of the 3 wildcard playoff slots though.”
I didn’t either, I just locked in a major bowl slot.
“Peach and Fiesta would make good semi-final sites. Peach is relatively accessible and Fiesta has good weather. Cotton tends to have cold weather like the Peach and is west of most of the schools like the Fiesta, so it might be better as a quarter-final”
The Cotton is indoors now, so who cares? I wanted 2 geographically separate sites for each pair, and I got TX/GA and TX/FL. That’s decent for everyone except the P12.
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I suppose a lot depends on what you think would replace the current cable television ecosystem once it collapses. Personally, I’m rooting for a system that would make a considerable space for broadcast television, mostly because I think linear television, properly applied, has some technical advantages that could still give it a place in an Internet-centered future, even if we don’t see it at the moment because even linear television channels are still being delivered to computers using the Internet as an intermediary (and in fact I think this may be the underlying reason for the sports rights boom no one is talking about – live events like sports are the entire purpose of linear television anymore). If this is the case, I actually think the ACC is the best positioned of the power conferences, even as they think about going backwards on that front. Unfortunately, at the moment there’s no short-term money for anyone except possibly the always-powerless-and-ignorant consumer in bringing about that future…
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http://bloguin.com/thestudentsection/2014/college-footballs-emergent-absurdity-why-its-time-for-divisions-to-be-eliminated.html
An idea for deregulated CCGs that probably has zero chance of ever happening.
What we have here are three basic avenues for the power conferences as far as their conference championship games are concerned:
1) If there’s uncertainty as to the best team in the conference — either due to two teams not having played each other or a tie existing in the conference standings (or both) — a traditional conference championship game can be played.
2) If the conference champion is already clear but the second- and third-place teams are both in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff, hand over the conference title game spot to those two teams, and have them contest a game for playoff leverage and, hopefully (from a conference commissioner’s point of view), inclusion in the four-team bonanza.
3) If neither of the above scenarios are in play — the 2011 season certainly brought this to the forefront in the Pac-12 and the SEC — invite a team from another conference, especially if not in a league with a conference title game (cough, Big 12, cough).
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Or cough-Notre Dame-cough or an exceptional cough-AAC/Mtn West/G5/Army-cough.
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http://bloguin.com/thestudentsection/2014/flashback-friday-would-the-2011-season-have-been-different-with-the-college-football-playoff.html
A look at the CFP and rematches.
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http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/07/nebraska-players-financial-adviser-extra-benefits
Some former NE players are saying they got illegal benefits while in school.
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/outkick-the-coverage/website-alleges-jameis-winston-shaved-points-in-first-half-of-louisville-game-110614
http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/eye-on-college-basketball/24786846/ncaa-investigation-could-mean-bad-things-for-donnie-tyndall-at-ut
Trouble all around…little ever changes.
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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus2014
F/+ top 10:
1. AU – 37.5%
2. OR – 35.2%
3. MS St
4. MS
5. AL – 33.4%
6. OU – 32.0%
7. OSU – 28.9%
8. FSU
9. LSU
10. TCU – 27.4%
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Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston.
If FSU wins the MNC, is that the death of college football?
Its just beyond disgusting. I don’t really think he point-shaved, but he’s such a scumbag, people at least consider it. He’s got his attorney tweeting the name of the accuser. Penn ST. at least finally did the right thing. Will FSU?–Not before the title game.
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Well, OU can say good bye to their dim playoff hopes.
And yeesh, Iowa. What was that? Are you suddenly allergic to pork?
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11840940/ex-north-carolina-tar-heels-football-player-files-lawsuit-citing-university-sham-classes
Former UNC football player is suing UNC because he was promised a good education and then pressed into the fake classes.
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NCAA needs to pressure them to settle. They really don’t want this as a precedent. Perfect case for the plaintiffs. They cheat, but kick him out for cheating.
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Interesting. ND gets whooped and AU fumbles away their chance at the playoff.
And kudos to UT for beating WV.
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CFP poll prediction:
1. MS St
2. FSU (if they win)
3. OR (if they win)
4. AL (if they win)
5. TCU/KSU winner
FSU (if they lose)
6. ASU
7. MSU/OSU winner
OR, AL (if they lose)
8. AU
9. MS
10. Baylor
LSU if they win
11. TCU/KSU loser
Utah if they win
12. NE
13. ND
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Baylor beat the #15 team 48-14 on the road. Don’t think they are behind any 2 loss teams.
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AU beat LSU 41-7 and plays in the almighty SEC West. MS is ahead of Baylor already with 2 losses and won 48-0. Until I see proof the committee isn’t drinking the SECW kool aid, I won’t believe it.
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Ole Miss played Presbyterian. That’s like a bye.
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Since when has anyone that matters ever called the SEC on that?
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And don’t forget the OOC scheduling. AU beat KSU. MS beat Boise (looks good as an attempt to schedule a decent game). Baylor has played SMU, Northwestern St and Buffalo.
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Small change in my CFP poll prediction:
1. MS St
2. FSU
3. OR
4. AL
5. TCU
6. ASU
7. AU
8. MS
9. Baylor
10. OSU
11. KSU
12. NE
13. ND
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And to be clear, this is not my personal ranking but what I expect the committee to do. I think Baylor and OSU should be higher.
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Duke is looking really likely to win the ACC Coastal again.
Duke (4-1) has home games versus 1-4 VT, 2-3 UNC and 0-5 WF left.
GT (5-2) only has home versus 6-1 Clemson left.
Miami (3-2) has home versus 5-0 FSU, at 2-3 UVA and home versus 2-3 Pitt.
Duke beat GT but lost to Miami, while GT beat Miami
Likely results:
1. Duke goes 7-1 and wins it
2. Duke goes 6-2 and wins it
3. 3 way tie at 5-3
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Ha!
Early celebrating a touchdown turns into a 14 point swing the other way for UO.
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1am sunday. Another great PAC12 game.
Who says college teams don’t play on sunday.
Hopefully people will catch some highlights between watching NFL pre game.
gets me thinking, the American should play games at
11am eastern, saturdays and sundays to get some exposure.
The NFL can’t play on saturday, but can college play on sunday?
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As long is its not BYU, though BYU has played a few 10:00am local starts on Saturday mornings.
I wonder if Brian ever did Keg n Eggs when in Cols.
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Yep, though usually at home rather than at the bar. I lived on the north side of campus and the bars were on the south side, a good 30 minute walk.
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Congratulations to Northern Iowa. They beat NDSU 23-3 to end their 33 game winning streak.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/102718/playoff-picture-week-12
This is the sort of ESPN coverage that bothers me.
4 teams that helped themselves the most or hurt themselves the most as far as the CFP chase (in order).
Helped the most:
1. TCU
2. Baylor
3. ASU
4. Marshall
Hurt the most:
1. ND
2. AU
3. KSU
4. Big Ten
The Big Ten: You thought Ohio State helped itself, didn’t you? It did. But it’s also all the Big Ten has. Sure, the Buckeyes looked good in their win at Michigan State, but they lost at home to a Virginia Tech team that is now 4-5 and in last place in the ACC’s Coastal Division. And there’s nothing else on their schedule — including the Big Ten title game — that’s going to do much to further boost their playoff résumé (especially if Nebraska can’t beat Wisconsin). The best scenario for the Big Ten would have been for Michigan State to keep winning with style. Now, the Buckeyes have to hope the committee considers Braxton Miller’s injury was a factor in Week 2 against the Hokies, when J.T. Barrett was making his first career start in front of a home crowd. They also have to hope the committee was so impressed with the win in East Lansing that it makes up for no other wins against a ranked opponent, save for maybe Nebraska in the title game. Is one win against a ranked team enough to be in the top four?
Really? Unranked Marshall helped themselves more by beating USM than OSU did by beating MSU on the road? As for their B10 critique:
1. What else does the ACC have besides FSU?
2. Yes, it was a terrible loss. But you mention the possible mitigating factors later.
3. Why throw in a jab at NE? There’s no reason to assume they can’t beat WI.
4. Yes, MSU would have had an easier path. So what? Why is it only a crippling blow when the top teams beat each other in the B10?
5. Why are you comparing a conference to teams?
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Well, OSU now has some very slim hope of making the CFP. Frankly, I think we’re better off not making it this year (be #5 and win a bowl and claim you should have been in) but we could win a semi depending on the match-up. But for OSU to make it, they need some help obviously.
In the playoff – FSU, SEC W champ, probably SEC #2
1. B10 best case scenario
OSU wins out (MN, IN, MI, CCG over 11-1 NE)
NE wins out (WI, MN, IA) until the CCG
MN beats WI
2. P12 – ASU and OR both lose a game (ASU still has AZ and OR could lose the CCG)
3. B12 – TCU (unlikely) and Baylor (still play KSU) both lose a game
If all that happens, I think OSU is a lock. I don’t think OSU will pass OR or TCU without a loss, though, so I’m not holding my breath.
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Everybody is beatable this year. Anyone who gets in the playoff has a decent shot. FSU and Alabama could easily both have 3 losses this year. Mississippi St. hasn’t dominated anyone but South Alabama, Southern Mississippi and UT-Martin. Oregon is very Jekyll and Hyde. TCU blew a 21 point lead in 8 minutes.
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That’s not a B1G “best” scenario… That’s an Ohio State “best” scenario… The way the B1G is looked at this year (fair or not), is likely that no one makes the “play-off”.
Personally, I’d like nothing better than a Gopher’s upset of tOSU this Saturday… I really don’t see it happening ’cause the Gophers just played a near perfect game in the beat-down of hated Iowa (rah!). But… a man can dream…
If the Gophers do nothing else but win the ‘Axe’, this season would be an absolutely enormous success… All 4 of the rivalry trophies would be in the Gopher’s trophy case at the same time. That would be the 3 important ones (Floyd, The Axe, The Jug) and the made-up one (Governor’s Victory Bell). 1967 was the last time the Gophers had all in the same year. Also, was last year Gophers won B1G title (of ‘course it was shared that year)…
A shot at the conference title is still 100% in the Gopher’s own control…
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mnfanstc,
“That’s not a B1G “best” scenario… That’s an Ohio State “best” scenario… The way the B1G is looked at this year (fair or not), is likely that no one makes the “play-off”.”
I thought it was clear I was talking about the best case scenario in the B10 for OSU. I mentioned OSU would need help just before saying this, and went on to say what needed to happen in 2 other conferences to help OSU.
And I started by pointing out that OSU had very slim hopes of making the playoff. But if enough teams lose 2 games, eventually a 12-1 OSU could make it into the top 4.
“Personally, I’d like nothing better than a Gopher’s upset of tOSU this Saturday… I really don’t see it happening ’cause the Gophers just played a near perfect game in the beat-down of hated Iowa (rah!). But… a man can dream…”
I was glad MN played so well because I think it’ll help OSU not overlook them. It was setup to be a quintessential trap game, but the score against IA should adjust their attitudes.
“If the Gophers do nothing else but win the ‘Axe’, this season would be an absolutely enormous success… All 4 of the rivalry trophies would be in the Gopher’s trophy case at the same time.”
I was glad MN finally won the jug again. It had been a very long time. Even ignoring how it would help OSU, I’d love to see MN win the axe to reignite that rivalry. Those games are always more fun to watch when you think either team has a decent chance to win.
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So long as Ohio state runs the table there is a good chance. The SEC may not even get one team in. Let’s face some facts here. The SEC is down. Both Mississippi teams good at the same time? Really? Or maybe bama and auburn and lsu are down a bit. Both Mississippi schools are solid, but top 5 ish? Doubtful. Not both of them.
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It’ll be hard to not have a single SEC team get in. I think any 2 loss SEC West champ is in. Maybe if the East champ (probably 3 losses) wins the CCG.
East:
7-2/4-1 MO
7-2/5-2 UGA
5-3/4-3 UF
West:
9-0/5-0 MS St
8-1/4-1 AL
8-2/4-2 MS
7-2/4-2 AU
11/15
MS St @ AL
AU @ UGA
11/22
MS @ AR
VU @ MS St
Samford @ AU
WCU @ AL
11/29
AU @ AL
MS St @ MS
MS St could lose twice in the West, and AU could beat AL to get everyone to at least 2 losses. But whoever wins the West seems likely to make the playoff if they finish with 2 losses.
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If Oregon, Baylor, TCU, FSU and Ohio St. win out, its hard to see a 2 loss SEC team beating 2 of them out. Only MSU and Alabama is ahead of enough of them now and Alabama would have to lose 1 and MSU 2. Meanwhile Oregon, Baylor and Ohio St. have some tough games ahead, so it seems unlikely Ole Miss or Auburn jump them.
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Unless Baylor loses, TCU is out (head to head win, B12 champ, and the B12 isn’t getting 2 teams in). That just leaves OSU, which has the worst loss of any of the contenders and a pretty easy schedule (MSU, maybe MN, and the West champ as the only ranked opponents).
AL would play MS St, AU and the East champ. Going 2-1 would get them in the top 4.
AU beating UGA, AL and the East champ would probably get in.
MS beating MS St and the East champ would probably get in.
MS St would play AL, MS and the East champ. Going 1-2 still might get them in.
But based on game locations, AL is by far the most likely SEC West champ.
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Brian ~ quite. OSU winning out is not enough on its own to be likely pass a 2-loss SEC Champion from the SEC West … it seems like someone still ahead of OSU would have to stumble, or else an upset win by the SEC East Division champion.
Mind, it may be long odds of any specific team stumbling, but the combined odds of somebody stumbling and opening up a spot are more reasonable.
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http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP poll:
1. MS St
2. FSU
3. OR
4. AL
5. TCU
6. Baylor
7. ASU
8. OSU
9. AU
10. MS
11. NE
12. MSU
22. WI
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. MS St
2. FSU
3. AL
4. OR
5. TCU
6. Baylor
7. OSU
8. ASU
9. AU
10. MS
11. NE
12. MSU
22. WI
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Heading into the third playoff vote : 2 zero loss, 8 one loss, and 13 two loss teams
0 loss teams (excluding Marshall)
ACC | Florida State
B 12 | none
B1G | none
I ND | none
PAC | none
SEC | Mississippi State
1 loss teams (excluding Gang of 5 teams and IND’s other than Notre Dame)
ACC | Duke
B 12 | Baylor + TCU
B1G | Ohio State + Nebraska
I ND | none
PAC | Oregon + Arizona State
SEC | Alabama
2 loss teams (excluding Gang of 5 teams and IND’s other than Notre Dame)
ACC | Clemson + Georgia Tech
B 12 | Kansas State
B1G | Michigan State + Minnesota + Wisconsin
I ND | Notre Dame
PAC | UCLA + Arizona
SEC | Missouri + Georgia + Mississippi + Auburn
.
…
…..
…
.
Week 11 holds with 2 undefeated again
FBS football = 3 of 128 remain (2.4%)
Big 5 = 2 of 64 remain (3.125%)
ACC —- 1 of 14 or 7.14% remain
Atlantic : Florida State (9-0, 6-0)
Costal : None after Week 7
Florida State @ Miami (6-3, 3-2)
B12 —- 0 of 10 remain | None after week 8
B1G —- 0 of 14 remain
East : NONE after Week 5 | West : NONE after Week 6
PAC —- 0 of 12 remain
North : NONE after week 6 | South : NONE after week 7
SEC —- 1 of 14 or 7.14% remain
East : NONE after Week 4
West : Mississippi State (9-0, 5-0)
Mississippi State @ Alabama (8-1, 5-1)Mississippi State
.
…
.
non Big 5 = 1 of 64 remain (1.5625%)
MWC : NONE after Week 3 // 0 of 12 remain
SUNB : NONE after Week 3 // 0 of 11 remain
MAC : NONE after Week 4 // 0 of 13 remain
AAC : NONE after Week 5 // 0 of 11 remain
IND : NONE after Week 8 // 0 of 4 remain
CUSA : Marshall (9-0, 5-0) // 1 of 13 remain or 7.69%
Rice (6-3, 4-1) @ Marshall
Bowl eligible Loki!
.
…
.
Drawing dead after Week 3 : Mountain West and Sun Belt
Drawing dead after Week 4 : SEC East and MAC
Drawing dead after Week 5 : B1G East and American Athletic
Drawing dead after Week 6 : B1G West and PAC North
Drawing dead after Week 7 : ACC Costal and PAC South
Drawing dead after Week 8 : IND
Drawing dead after Week 9 : none
Drawing dead after Week 10 : none
Drawing dead after Week 11 : none
.
…
.
Bowl Eligible Week 7
ACC Florida State
B 12 Baylor
CUSA Marshall
IND Notre Dame
SEC Mississippi + Mississippi State
Bowl Eligible Week 8
ACC Louisville + Duke
B1G Michigan State + Minnesota + Nebraska
MWC Colorado State
PAC Oregon
SEC Georgia + Alabama + LSU
Bowl Eligible Week 9
ACC East Carolina
ACC Clemson + Georgia Tech
B 12 Kansas State + West Virginia + TCU
B1G Ohio State
MAC Northern Illinois
MWC Boise State
PAC Arizona State + Arizona + Utah + UCLA
SEC Missouri + Auburn
S B Georgia Southern
Bowl Eligible Week 10
ACC Boston College + Miami
B 12 Oklahoma
B1G Maryland + Iowa + Wisconsin
CUSA Louisiana Tech
MAC Western Michigan + Central Michigan
MWC Nevada + Air Force + Utah State
PAC Washington + Southern California
SEC Texas A&M
Bowl Eligible Week 11
AAC Memphis
CUSA Rice
MAC Bowling Green + Toledo
S B LA – Lafayette + Arkansas State
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Interesting symmetry…each of the Power 5 conferences have 2 teams left with one or none losses. With these ten teams, it appears that 1 loss may be the max for getting into the playoffs.
For the ACC, BIG and PAC, their two teams are in different divisions. So there can be greater interest…north-south, east-west & competitive-academic. This really could help create more interest in their respective CCGs. Nebraska should jump ahead of all 2 loss teams if they beat Wisconsin. It’s still hard to see a scenario for Duke to be selected, but their fans can dream an implausible series of events.
For the SEC, having 2 teams from its west division means that they have a greater chance to place 2 teams in the playoffs. Unfortunately for the SEC, it means they also have more paths towards getting no teams included. Miss St and Alabama have really hard roads ahead.
The B12 is in an odd spot. Seems confusing that TCU (via its SOS) may end-up ranked ahead of the team likely to win the conference. This could be the year that a CCG would be a better tie-breaker.
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As someone who a freshmen at U of I in 2005 this has me quite intrigued
http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/11/08/4305374_2005-unc-basketball-champs-2-semesters.html?rh=1
During the season that the UNC men’s basketball team made its run to the 2005 NCAA championship, its players accounted for 35 enrollments in classes that didn’t meet and yielded easy, high grades awarded by the architect of the university’s academic scandal.
…
Of the 35 bogus class enrollments, nine came during the fall semester of 2004, when eligibility for the spring was determined. Twenty-six were during the spring semester, when the season climaxed with a victory over Illinois in St. Louis.
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I’m a little disappointed (but not surprised) that UNC hasn’t started to vacate wins in FB and MBB already. It seems like such an obvious bone to throw to the NCAA to reduce any future penalties.
As for 2005, UNC beat WI, MSU and IL in a row to win the title.
In 2007, they beat MSU in the tourney.
In 2009, they beat MSU for the title.
How much better might the B10 look in hoops with those 2 titles?
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I think part of it is a issue of all time wins in basketball. Seems it went back and forth between North Carolina and Kentucky so dropping lots of games would be the equivalent of Penn State vacating wins that put Bobby Bowden back in front of those 2. The bigger issue may be the NCAA banners. Of the 5 out there, 1 from the 50’s is safe as is 1 from the 80’s, but 1993 + 2005 + 2009 would be harder to defend.
1993 was the game with Michigan
2005 was the game with Illinois
2009 was the game with Michigan State
Needless to say that is 3 B1G Runner Up teams.
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duffman,
“The bigger issue may be the NCAA banners. Of the 5 out there, 1 from the 50’s is safe as is 1 from the 80’s, but 1993 + 2005 + 2009 would be harder to defend.
1993 was the game with Michigan
2005 was the game with Illinois
2009 was the game with Michigan State
Needless to say that is 3 B1G Runner Up teams.”
The Fab 5 already vacated their season, so the B10 couldn’t really count that one.
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Since the 3rd place game no longer existed by ’93’s NCAA tourney, who then would be champion of other FF’ers Kansas and Kentucky? How about an Old – timers’ game settling it (and Roy Williams would not be allowed to coach Kansas)?
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Officially, vacated champs aren’t replaced. The winner just can’t claim them anymore. It would be different if the NCAA used forfeits, but they generally don’t.
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They just leave it blank. It would be hard to say the team in the final was much more deserving than the team that lost to the vacating champ in the semi-final.
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True, but as there has not been a vacated NCAA banner, UNC would have the historic distinction of being the first.
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http://www.wthr.com/story/27334319/2014/11/08/iu-ad-glass-lays-down-the-law-on-misbehaving-basketball-team#.VF-sY9uh73I.twitter
Fred Glass said to be unhappy with what’s been going on with the basketball team recently. There have been rumors of Tom Crean’s job being in jeopardy.
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I am in the zero tolerance crowd. While I would love to have Indiana basketball back on top, it does not mean such success should be at any cost. Maybe a select few can succeed in academics or athletics while under the influence but it certainly does not apply to the vast majority of kids out there. Team sports are by their very nature the effort of the collective. When a kid gets stoned they do hurt others when they act on their own.
For all the “it was just a little weed or booze” crowd would you feel the same if you were on a team that lost the brass ring because of such actions? What about if you were a fan who lost a child to an athlete who drove under the influence? Take care of the smaller stuff early on and it probably avoids the bigger mishaps later.
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Those Crean rumors have been circulating for a while now. Last season’s fast start saved him, though IU’s collapse in the end probably means its warming up again. Misbehaving players won’t help his cause, but won’t be a primary reason for termination.
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Crean sucks. 80% of IU fans want him gone.
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Is the job Brad Steven’s whenever he tires of the Celtics?
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That would certainly be the fans’ desire…..don’t know if he’d take it.
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http://bloguin.com/thestudentsection/uncategorized/how-tom-crean-has-lost-indiana.html
While the school would have to eat $12 million if it cuts ties with Crean after this season, and $7.5 million if it can wait until next year, I see no possible way that they can keep the beleaguered coach around after another subpar campaign.
I really don’t see IN eating $12M if they can wait a year to eat only $7.5M.
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Among FBS teams, UMich and EMU have their stadiums 6 miles apart. Washington State and Idaho have their stadiums 9 miles apart (Google Maps using fastest route). I wonder which pair of FBS schools is third for shortest distance between football venues?
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UNC/Duke is 10 miles.
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Miss State and Bama are the closest (80 miles) in the SEC.
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Rice and Houston are less than 5 miles apart. Georgia Tech and Georgia State are about a mile. They used to share a dorm.
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Actually, the two closest CFB programs would be Georgia State and the Atlanta Falcons. They share the same stadium.
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Tampa Bay and USF would be a better comparison.
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Akron & Kent State are about 14 miles from each other, per Google Maps.
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USC-UCLA 14 miles b/w Rose Bowl and Coliseum
The U (Sun Life) and FIU (far SW Miami proper), 24 miles
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Nebraska-Wisconsin now a trophy game–the Freedom Trophy: http://www.ketv.com/sports/huskers-extended-coverage/nebraska-wisconsin-to-play-for-freedom-trophy/29638762
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@urbanleftbehind – Closest that I’ve seen is the distance between the stadiums for Houston and Rice – it’s 5.1 miles in the shortest Google Maps route (and would be even closer as the crow flies since the driving route is not straight at all).
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I liked this ‘trophy’ idea: http://www.omaha.com/huskers/shatel-for-nebraska-wisconsin-trophy-loser-is-made-to-see/article_1223480b-2ef0-524c-893c-863f643aad82.html
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I like the concept of the winner getting to wear red next year. The freedom trophy sounds like something George W. Bush would have given out.
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Not as horrible as the Heroes Game trophy, but still horrible.Lame as hell.
The idea and the trophy itself look like they were desgined by a commitee of old, rich white people.
The US flag on the trophy is way too damn big. A smaller US flag rising above the state flags of Wisconsin and Nebraska would have at least looked the part. Awful.
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In partial defense of the “Freedom Trophy” I thought I, in 10 minutes of internet use, could come up with a better trophy. However, it turns out that Nebraska and Wisconsin have very few real connections, which, in my view, is a damn good reason to have NO trophy.
For example, I thought some red/white theme might be in order. Turns out, however, that Neb’s colors are actually Scarlet & Cream, while Wisconsin’s are Cardinal & White.
The default trophy should have been the Coaches’ Trophy, with images of Devaney and Alvarez shaking hands. That’s at least a real connection, not a fake connection that relies on “Memorial Stadium” being relevant….UI and Nebraska makes as much sense.
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Nebraska has the Victory Bell laying around. I’m not sure why they couldn’t use it. It isn’t widely known because the team Nebraska used to play for the bell was never concerned about anything labeled “victory.”
🙂
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More comments on freedom trophy: “And what better way to convey importance, significance and meaning than handing out a trophy after … well … damn near any game you win?” Also mentions the Freedom Bell and Slab of Bacon trophy.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/big-ten-s-latest-marketing-ploy–manufacturing-a-rivalry-220919938-ncaaf.html
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Can someone name to me a recently created trophy for a rivalry game that has been good? I guess there’s a few, but really the best trophies far and away are the old ones that seem somewhat random, but are unique or at least don’t sound like something out of a board room (not that Freedom Trophy is bad, but it’s easy to imagine any team in the country playing for a trophy with that name).
You can even do a military one based on the theme of the stadiums if that’s what they want (they play on that in the description here), but make it sound a little more original. A Civil War era cannon replica maybe.
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@Eric – Pretty much all of the recently created trophies are completely generic and non-threatening, which is what makes them terrible. The great trophies seem to fall into one of the following categories:
(1) Deadly weapons – Paul Bunyan’s Axe, various rifles, cannons, axes, etc.
(2) Animals – Floyd of Rosedale (my personal favorite rivalry trophy), Illibuck, etc.
(3) Beverage containers – Little Brown Jug, Old Oaken Bucket, etc.
[old man voice] Today, new trophies have to go through focus groups and be 100% politically correct. Could you imagine someone trying to propose the Old Brass Spittoon today? Could you imagine the generic piece of crap that the administrations of Indiana and Michigan State would come up with if they had to replace the Old Brass Spittoon? New trophies suck. [/old man voice]
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It should have been a badger holding a cornstalk.
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Good, but better still would have been Herby Husker trying to “axe” the badger, as the badger was taking a chunk out of his leg….now that would be a trophy worth fighting for……
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My ol’ App State Mountaineers had a great rivalry trophy with Western Carolina: the Old Mountain Jug. Legend has it that it contains moonshine from the western North Carolina mountains. The series is over because of App State’s departure from the FCS & Southern Conference to the Sun Belt, but the game was played 78 times.
Like the old Big Ten rivalry trophies, it emerged kind of organically, for lack of a better word. It was emblematic of mountain culture and fitting as a prize between two schools based deep in the Appalachian mountains. New trophies with any Sun Belt member, just as with these new Big Ten trophies, would feel forced.
http://saturdayblitz.com/2012/10/27/battle-for-the-old-mountain-jug-has-interesting-twist-in-2012/
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Though they still could play it now and again, it wouldn’t be the same if played between teams with different scholarship limits.
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I can’t work out whether you are saying that an old wagon wheel could be used as a deadly weapon, or that its not a great trophy. I’m going to vote deadly weapon ~ I wouldn’t want to be hit with an old wagon wheel if someone got spinning around and threw it like a hammer throw.
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Frank….IU and UK football used to play for the Bourbon Barrel, which was a very appropriate trophy untuil the PC bastards said no………
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http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/10/selection-committee-football-style-punt-pass-pork
Will/does the committee have a style bias?
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http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/10/selection-committee-football-style-punt-pass-pork
Supposed former UNC DL called a radio show.
“If you ain’t inside of there, you don’t know what’s going on. But Butch Davis came into a meeting one day and he said, ‘If y’all came here for an education, you should’ve went to Harvard,'” Powell told the show’s hosts.
“It ain’t that we go in there and say, ‘We want to take African-American studies.’ How did we know about it? They put it on the table for us…these coaches, man, [they say], ‘We’re going to get you three and out of here.'”
Powell also said that he took one of the “paper classes” offered by the African-American Studies department, though he graduated with a degree in communications.
Then came what the radio hosts called “the million dollar question.” Did Roy Williams know about the academic scandal?
“Man…man, you know he knows,” Powell replied. “Roy Williams is a snake, man.”
He continued: “If you ain’t got a class with a basketball player, you better go find one. If you got one with them, you know it’s an ‘A.'”
Powell then offered a story about taking a class with a basketball player — the radio station has bleeped the player’s name from the audio — and getting all of the test answers from him after the player got another student to take the test for him.
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Big Ten baseball tournament headed back to Omaha in 2016 and 2018.
http://b1gbaseball.com/2014/11/11/big-ten-tournament-to-return-to-omaha-in-2016-and-2018
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/11/11/michigan-president-mark-schlissel-academics-driving-ad-search/18850269/
MI’s president says academics is driving his search for an AD.
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TV ratings (3.0 or higher) through week 10.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Week 1: 4.0 West Va/Bama or Cal/Northwestern ABC 3:30p; 3.8 Fla St/OK State ABC 8p
Week 2: 4.1 USC/Stanford ABC 3:30p; 3.5 Mich St/Oregon FOX 6:30p
Week 3: 4.1 Georgia/South Car CBS 5p
Week 4: 5.1 Florida/Bama CBS 3:30p; 4.5 Clemson/FSU ABC 8p
Week 5: 3.5 Fla St/NC St or Minn/Mich ABC 3:30p; 3.1 Tenn/Georgia ESPN Noon
Week 6: 3.7 Bama/Ole Miss CBS 3:30p
Week 7: 3.8 Auburn/Miss St CBS 3:30p
Week 8: 7.9 ND/Fla St ABC 8p
Week 9: 3.1 Miss St/Kent CBS 3:30p; Ole Miss/LSU ESPN 7:15p
Week 10: 3.7 Fla/Georgia CBS 3:30p; 3.4 Auburn/Ole Miss ESPN 7p; 3.1 Fla St/Louisville (Thu) ESPN 6:30p
Network Scorecard: (6) CBS & ABC; (4) ESPN; (1) Fox
Conference Scorecard: (19) SEC; (8) ACC; (4) B1G & Pac-12; (2) Big XIII; (1) Ind
I gave all conferences credit for split ABC telecasts.
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Here’s an interesting part. Notre Dame only made it vs. FSU. No NBC games.
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TV ratings (3.0 or higher) updated through week 11.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Week 11: 5.3 Bama/LSU CBS 8p; 4.4 A&M/Auburn CBS 3:30p; 3.9 Ohio St/Mich St ABC 8p; 3.0 ND/Ariz St ABC 3:30p
Updated Network scorecard: (8) CBS & ABC; (4) ESPN; (1) FOX
Updated Conference scorecard: (23) SEC; (8) ACC; (6) B1G; (5) Pac-12; (2) Big XII and ND.
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To add to that:
B1G-MSU-2, OSU, MN (vs UM regional w/FSU/NCSU other half), UM
Big 12 WV, OSU
ACC FSU-5, UL, NCSU, UL (others all when playing FSU)
Pac 12 ASU, USC, Stanford, OR
ND-2
SEC-AL 4, Aub 3, Ole Miss 3, UGA 3, LSU 2, MSU 2, FL 2, UK, TN, SC, A&M
Only UGA-FL, UGA-TN and USC-Stanford didn’t involve a team in the top 6 at the time (not counting regional-MN-UM which was paired with #1 FSU).
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Also, only 4 non-split games not involving a top 5 team-USC-Stanford and 3 involving Georgia (Todd Gurley effect?)-vs. South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida.
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Sure didn’t see Oregon jumping FSU.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11860641/college-football-playoff-rankings-tcu-horned-frogs-move-first-four
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings
New CFP poll:
1. MS St
2. OR
3. FSU
4. TCU
5. AL
6. ASU
7. Baylor
8. OSU
9. AU
10. MS
11. UCLA
12. MSU
16. NE
20. WI
25. MN
Notes:
* NE is 8-1 but only #16. #9-15 all have 2 losses. The only P5 team below them with 1 loss is #21 Duke. The good news for NE fans is that they have 3 tough games coming up, and potentially a CCG to help their ranking.
* Marshall is still unranked.
* #17 LSU is the highest ranked team with 3 losses
* I’m glad to see they dropped AU and MS behind OSU and Baylor.
* At some point they almost have to move Baylor past TCU if both win out, since Baylor would have the head to head tiebreaker and win the B12. Baylor still has KSU to play as well.
* SEC – 7, B10 – 5, P12 – 5, ACC – 4, B12 – 3
* My prediction (and how far off it was):
1. MS St
2. FSU -1
3. OR +1
4. AL -1
5. TCU +1
6. ASU
7. AU -2
8. MS -2
9. Baylor +2
10. OSU +2
11. KSU -2
12. NE -4
13. ND -5
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Brian: “* At some point they almost have to move Baylor past TCU if both win out, since Baylor would have the head to head tiebreaker and win the B12. Baylor still has KSU to play as well.”
The best time to do that would be when TCU has its bye week this weekend … but Baylor has to play along and have a convincing win over the Cowpokes of the Other OSU. That is far from guaranteed.
If Baylor sneaks past the Pokes and KS State, while TCU wins both of their last games convincingly, their current standings would say they should put TCU ahead of Baylor. That would really put the cat amongst the pigeons as far as a Big12 CCG goes.
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TCU hasn’t played Texas or the bottom two in the Big 12-Kansas and Iowa St. Meanwhile Baylor hasn’t played Oklahoma St., Texas Tech or Kansas St. I don’t think Baylor passes them until after the Kansas St. game at the end of the season. And that, in part, depends on how well Baylor & TCU do in their remaining games as well as how well Minnesota does (who TCU beat). There’s a huge gap in strength of schedule right now. Now after KSU-Baylor, they will have played 10 common opponents + an FBS squad with the only difference Minnesota vs. Buffalo (Baylor played at Buffalo).
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Note that the remaining schedule for Alabama is much tougher than for TCU. So if Alabama wins out, they almost certainly pass TCU, no matter how big TCU wins their games. The committee really likes Auburn.
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BruceMcF,
“The best time to do that would be when TCU has its bye week this weekend … but Baylor has to play along and have a convincing win over the Cowpokes of the Other OSU. That is far from guaranteed.
If Baylor sneaks past the Pokes and KS State, while TCU wins both of their last games convincingly, their current standings would say they should put TCU ahead of Baylor. That would really put the cat amongst the pigeons as far as a Big12 CCG goes.”
I heard a Bill Hancock interview today. He said the committee has TCU ahead because of their better body of work so far (OOC over MN, better B12 loss). He said head to head would only come in if the teams were judged to be equivalent otherwise, so it’s a true tiebreaker. However, we also have to remember that there are no conference champs yet. We’ll have to see what sort of a boost that gives a team like Baylor versus TCU. Certainly a solid win over KSU would help Baylor.
On the other hand, maybe the committee is making a statement about the importance of OOC scheduling by putting TCU so far ahead.
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Well, it should be noted TCU will be a Big 12 co-champion if both they and Baylor win out. The H2H does not make Baylor the champion. In the past, it has been a tiebreaker for access bowls, but it has never been used to indicate who the actual champion is in the case of a tie. TCU would most definitely be a P5 champion.
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It remains to be seen if the committee considers co-champion status or not. H2H is considered a tiebreaker in the playoff system, so Baylor should top TCU if they both win out with solid wins. TCU has played a tougher B12 slate so far.
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I don’t think they’ll look at any champ as not a legitimate champ. They will however consider head to head strongly if they both end up in the same place I believe. I think Baylor will surpass if both with out, but it’s got a tougher schedule ahead still (and an easier one behind with a worse loss) so makes sense lower for now.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/102870/playoff-breakdown-if-the-games-were-today-2
If the season were over now:
12/31
12:30 – Peach = #9 AU vs Marshall
4pm – Fiesta = #6 ASU vs #8 OSU
8pm – Orange = #19 Clemson vs #5 AL
1/1
12:30 – Cotton = #7 Baylor vs #10 MS
5pm – Rose = #2 OR vs #3 FSU
8:30 – Sugar = #1 MS St vs #4 TCU
The Peach is a yawner and the Orange will be bad, too, but the others aren’t bad. A pseudo-Rose Bowl in the Fiesta. A local match-up in the Cotton.
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A lack of big name teams in the Sugar. Wonder how ratings would be for that matchup.
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It’s a playoff game, so the ratings will be huge. The casual viewers and gamblers will tune in.
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I don’t know that the ratings will be “huge” just because its a playoff game. The actual teams playing will have an impact. 2 lesser known programs will not draw casual viewers like 2 name brand schools will.
Also, “huge” is a vague and relative term. “Huge” compared to what, standard NYD nighttime programming? Past Sugar Bowls? Other bowl games? Its yet to be determined if a Sugar Bowl will draw more merely because its a playoff game vs a standard BCS matchup, namely because this is the first year of the playoff.
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Wainscott,
“I don’t know that the ratings will be “huge” just because its a playoff game. The actual teams playing will have an impact. 2 lesser known programs will not draw casual viewers like 2 name brand schools will.”
The fact that it is a playoff game will be more important than the brands in the game, IMO. Americans are suckers for football playoffs.
“Also, “huge” is a vague and relative term.”
Yes, it is.
” “Huge” compared to what, standard NYD nighttime programming? Past Sugar Bowls? Other bowl games? Its yet to be determined if a Sugar Bowl will draw more merely because its a playoff game vs a standard BCS matchup, namely because this is the first year of the playoff.”
NCG average rating = 16 (max 21, min 14)
Rose average = 11.9 (max 14.4, min 9.4)
Sugar average = 8.1 (max 9.5, min 6.1)
On average, I’d expect the new NCG to get a higher number than the BCS title game. I’d expect the semis to rate more like the Rose than the Sugar, maybe even better. A weak semi with 2 lesser brands will still probably pull a 10 if it’s a decent game on the field. Blowouts always lower the numbers.
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I think the playoff ratings will be very high regardless of the matchups. What we’ve seen from the TV ratings in the regular season this year is that they have actually been fairly meritocratic compared to the past – people generally really are watching the games with playoff implications en masse, while the power of simply having two big brand names teams playing each other without playoff implications has been mitigated a bit (although not eliminated). Granted, this past week’s ratings showed that having brand names involved still makes a difference, as both the Alabama-LSU and Ohio State-Michigan State games crushed Kansas State-TCU in the ratings (even though KSU-TCU was the best matchup from a pure playoff implications standpoint since both were effectively playing for a top 4 or 5 spot):
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2014/11/college-football-ratings-2014-kstate-tcu-overnights-low-fox-baylor-oklahoma-fs1/
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“The fact that it is a playoff game will be more important than the brands in the game, IMO. Americans are suckers for football playoffs.”
Not just Football playoffs … “March” college BB fans tuning in to watch Whereday U vs Whodat College who wouldn’t tune in to watch #1 at #2 in the regular season.
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Think that TH night FSU/Louisville game is an indication of the playoff driving ratings. Now it could be partly due to the NFL not being on CBS that night, only the NFL Network. Disappointed viewers may have turned to FSU. But still, 3.1 on a TH night with NFL competition is really good. Typically, TH night college games have been 1.5 or lower since the NFL moved to TH night games. TH night games this year over 1.0:
FSU/UL 3.1
Auburn/KSU 2.3
Oregon/AZ 1.5
Texas Tech/Ok. St. 1.1
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@bullet –
You missed Boise-Ole Miss (1.5) from week one.
Think that TH night FSU/Louisville game is an indication of the playoff driving ratings. Now it could be partly due to the NFL not being on CBS that night, only the NFL Network.
Its probably due to the Winston effect. That FSU rating is double almost every other game the last two years.
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People tune in to see if the #1 or undefeated team might lose
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Frank the Tank,
“Granted, this past week’s ratings showed that having brand names involved still makes a difference, as both the Alabama-LSU and Ohio State-Michigan State games crushed Kansas State-TCU in the ratings (even though KSU-TCU was the best matchup from a pure playoff implications standpoint since both were effectively playing for a top 4 or 5 spot):”
On the other hand, TCU/KSU was a blowout early on while AL/LSU went to OT and OSU/MSU was a close game for a while. That helps, too.
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@Mike;
I did miss Ole-Miss/Boise, but there was no NFL game that week.
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@Frank:
“I think the playoff ratings will be very high regardless of the matchups.”
Certainly a reasonable opinion, but what does “very high” mean in your book? I don’t think the magic words of “playoff” will do all that much for the tv ratings relative to what that bowl did in the BCS era–ie, fluctuate based on the teams playing in the game and the quality/closeness of the game itself. I think the Rose will still outperform the Sugar, because its the Rose Bowl.
Brian posed useful averages in his post. I don’t think a Sugar Bowl this year of Miss State/TCU (which what my original post to Brian was commenting on) would do as well in the ratings as a hypothetical Alabama vs Ohio State would.
I also think the NCG will do ratings in line with the higher end of BCS title game averages that Brian posted, but that it will also be matchup dependent.
Now, in years in which the semifinals are on Dec 31st (8 of 12 years), I don’t expect those games (especially the Dec 31 afternoon game) to do as well as NYD bowl games in the ratings (the night game might come close), and I think that in those years, when the championship matchup is already finalized before the ball drops, that the NYD bowls will suffer in the ratings as a result.
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@Wainscott – I think that the semifinal games will consistently end up being a fair amount higher than the Rose Bowl ratings over the past couple of years (when that game moved to ESPN). Yes, the ratings will get some extra juice if marquee teams are involved, but the baseline rating for even non-marquee teams for the semifinal games will be high. I really don’t think that the New Years Eve semifinal games would get lower ratings than the New Years Day non-semifinal games in the same year (even though I believe the powers-that-be are leaving a good number of viewers and TV dollars on the table by playing those games on NYE in the first place). The regular season viewership indicates that the national TV oxygen in college football is almost completely focused on the top 4 playoff and I’d expect that to extend to the playoff itself. This is quite a major sea change for how people watch college football – I think a lot of old school fans are underestimating how much pent-up demand there is for survive-and-advance playoff games (which is also why I think we’ll end up with an 8-team playoff sooner rather than later no matter what the CFP PR machine says). These games are going to blow away anything outside of the NFL in terms of viewership.
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Frank, I think you are right about the ratings. If you look at the past BCS championship games, the worst rated tended to be the controversial ones (Oklahoma-LSU after OU’s loss, Alabama-LSU rematch). When you had two clear teams, such as Texas and USC, the ratings were extremely high. With the 4 team playoff, there will be less taint than on the 2 team BCS. I also agree that this year’s regular season ratings indicate that brands, while helpful, aren’t essential-its high rankings that are essential.
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FtT;
“I think a lot of old school fans are underestimating how much pent-up demand there is for survive-and-advance playoff games…”
I think this particular old school fan doesn’t think an invitational where not being a conference champ is a requirement (for those in conferences) is a survive-and-advance system. i.e. No seconds or lower to the exclusion of a champion. If someday we get to eight with all P5 champs in then you will actually have a playoff. Or get to four conferences with CCGs as the qtrs.
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Frank the Tank,
“This is quite a major sea change for how people watch college football – I think a lot of old school fans are underestimating how much pent-up demand there is for survive-and-advance playoff games (which is also why I think we’ll end up with an 8-team playoff sooner rather than later no matter what the CFP PR machine says). These games are going to blow away anything outside of the NFL in terms of viewership.”
I don’t think it’s that we’re underestimating it, we just don’t care. Lots of people want bad or stupid things (like drugs or deep fried butter). The fly diet argument is never persuasive.
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Frank:
Remember that Nielsen report on sports on TV from 2 years back?
In it, it showed that for all 4 major pro leagues, their semifinals drew less than half as much as their championship game/series.
Last year’s BCS title game drew 26M viewers while the Rose drew 18.7M viewers.
Granted, college basketball breaks from the trend of the pro leagues in drawing 15M for the Final Four vs. 20M for the title game in 2011.
Still, 3/4th of 26M is 19.5M.
So I’m pretty confident in predicting that at best, the semifinals will draw only slightly more than the Rose Bowl, and they could definitely draw less.
Remember that the Rose Bowl draws grannies who have only a peripheral interest or knowledge of college football who watch because of the pageantry and tradition.
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@Frank:
“I really don’t think that the New Years Eve semifinal games would get lower ratings than the New Years Day non-semifinal games in the same year (even though I believe the powers-that-be are leaving a good number of viewers and TV dollars on the table by playing those games on NYE in the first place).”
If a semifinal is played on NYE in the afternoon, it will not draw as well as a NYD major bowl game. People are either at work, preparing for NYE, or travelling to their NYE/NYD destination. Its not prime viewership time.
“The regular season viewership indicates that the national TV oxygen in college football is almost completely focused on the top 4 playoff and I’d expect that to extend to the playoff itself.”
The link you posted above, to the tv ratings for 2 Saturdays ago, is the opposite of this statement, where K-State vs TCU was crushed in the ratings by big name teams.
We both know brands matter more in CFB–its why the SEC and B1G are the two most lucrative conferences in the nation–they have the best assemblage of brands, history, and geography. To say that a playoff will trump that simply because of the word “playoff” is a stretch in my opinion. ESPN paid money for the Playoff and NCG in the hopes of getting big name teams playing high-stakes games. It obviously runs the risk of years where a NCG features TCU vs Baylor, but it paid for the potential of having the biggest brands in the biggest games. That’s what will drive the ratings more than anything else.
“These games are going to blow away anything outside of the NFL in terms of viewership.”
They very well could, but I think it will be far more matchup-dependent. Its not the Super Bowl, where viewership numbers will fluctuate in a much smaller degree due to build in viewership numbers regardless of the teams.
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The Alabama/LSU and Ohio St./Michigan St. games were also playoff relevant. They had the CBS and ABC name brand advantage over TCU/KSU’s Fox in addition to having the school’s name brand.
If TCU/KSU had competition from some 3 loss brand name schools, they probably would have done very well, although being on Fox would have still handicapped them.
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Alabama misspelled Mississippi on its tickets for this weekend’s showdown with the top-ranked Bulldogs.
http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/bama-misspells-mississippi-on-football-tickets/nQjMG/
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Maybe their printers are North Carolina grads?!
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Tennessee dropping Lady Vols except for womens basketball.
http://www.utsports.com/genrel/111014aab.html
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http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/12/florida-state-jameis-winston-sexual-assault-hearing-postponed-december
And FSU gives Winston his hearing delay, now set for 12/1.
According to Axon, if Winston’s hearing concludes on or after Dec. 5, a decision would not be due until Jan. 13, because of the school’s winter break. The final game of the College Football Playoff will be played on Jan. 13.
Convenient, no?
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http://ohiostate.247sports.com/Article/Basketball-Signing-Day-Buckeyes-And-Illini-Lead-The-Big-Ten-32851709
A look at B10 hoops recruiting since today is signing day for the early period.
247 Composite Class rankings:
7. OSU
8. IL
11. MSU
23. NE
28. WI
29. PSU
32. RU
34. MN
41. NW
47. IN
Really? NW out-recruited IN? Crean really is in trouble.
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LSU signed the #1 player in the country today.
http://theadvocate.com/news/10816714-123/lsu-mens-basketball-reels-in
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Well it would be nice to finally see LSU become consistently good. A few ff’s, yes. But La isn’t just a prep football state.
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What’s worse is both Purdue and IU sit in a traditionally strong hs basketball state. I do think IU is right at the scholarship limit. Bottom line, the BIG doesn’t keep its rich basketball talent with regularity – this has been all too common for a while now. We could weave together a colorful basket of top shelf talent that has left the footprint over the years & many of these players go onto win NCs:
Sean May, Anthony Davis, Shane Battier, Antoine Walker, Eric Montross, Ryan Boatright, Wayne Blackshear, Chane Behanan (Oh & Ky), Khalid El-Amin, Jon Scheyer, Sherron Collins, Cole Aldrich, Al Horford – I could go on here, but the misery index rises.
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http://michigan.247sports.com/Bolt/Foote-Criticizes-Michigan-Recruiting–32853498
Former MI LB Larry Foote gave his team some recruiting advice on the radio.
“Like I said before, Michigan better go back to the ‘hood. They got too many trust fund babies in there, and they look like that when they’re playing. They got guys out there that are just happy, they’re happy they’re at Michigan, they’re losing and smiling. And that’s just not Michigan football. And that’s gotta change.”
Good thing he’s not white, because they would sound awfully racist if he was.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-nfl-should-expand-to-london-but-first-canada-mexico-and-la/
Nate Silver says the NFL should expand to LA, Mexico City, Toronto and Vegas before London.
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Could not have happened to a nicer program:
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/24802735/memphis-loses-exhibition-to-division-ii-christian-brothers
P.S. If the Big East wanted to go “mega” and find St. Louis U a partner, there’s a relatively close candidate. Their H.S. spawned Tim McCarver, though…
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Um, no. CBC HS in StL has no affiliation with CBU in Memphis.
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Tim McCarver is a native of Memphis, hence he did attend the Memphis CBHS. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_McCarver
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Clemson may begin to charge students a $350-per-year athletic fee beginning next school year to supplement its athletic department budget against an expected rise in the costs to remain competitive in intercollegiate sports, said Lambert McCarty, chair of Clemson’s Athletic Council.
http://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/local/2014/11/12/clemson-considers-mandatory-athletic-fee/18938713/
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Great article
Mississippi State’s spending habits would be off the radar except for one thing: The Bulldogs are the No. 1 football team in America. Entering Saturday’s SEC West showdown at financial juggernaut Alabama, Mississippi State is proof of the power of efficiency in college football, even if Stricklin is reluctant to say precisely where saving dollars makes sense.
“I’d hate to say,” Stricklin said. “I hope some people will keep spending money in some of those areas. We have more resources than we’ve ever had and because there’s so much more money in the system, I’m not sure the advantage of having more money means as much as it once did.”
“Moneyball” has come to college football, where there are only so many ways to spend lavishly on facilities and salaries. Half of the top eight teams in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings live in the middle class financially — No. 1 Mississippi State, No. 4 TCU, No. 6 Arizona State and No. 7 Baylor.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jon-solomon/24803567/moneyball-how-college-footballs-middle-class-is-winning-big
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Very good article.
Article mentions Gordon Gee’s comments about TCU. Would be kind of funny if 4 years later TCU gets the 4th spot in the playoffs and beats out a 1 loss Ohio St.
Also kind of amusing Texas fans are recalling Darrell Royal’s quote about TCU, who upset his teams a few times. He compared the Horned Frogs to cockroaches, “It isn’t what they pick up and carry off, its what they fall into and mess up.” They’re saying UT should cockroach TCU on Thanksgiving. Texas isn’t going to pick up and carry off any titles this year.
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Bad metaphor – must be the fans and boosters who didnt want Strong.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jon-solomon/24806444/is-the-alabama-board-of-trustees-finally-ready-to-kill-uab-football
Is the AL BoT trying to kill UAB football?
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Tallahassee police had an FSU player leave the scene of an accident, and when he returned they only gave him 2 tickets rather than charging him with hit and run. They also didn’t check if he’d been drinking (it was after 2am).
In the early-morning hours of Oct. 5, as this college town was celebrating another big football victory by Florida State University, a starting cornerback on the team drove his car into the path of an oncoming vehicle driven by a teenager returning home from a job at the Olive Garden.
Both cars were totaled. But rather than remain at the scene as the law requires, the football player, P. J. Williams, left his wrecked vehicle in the street and fled into the darkness along with his two passengers, including Ronald Darby, the team’s other starting cornerback.
The Tallahassee police responded to the off-campus accident, eventually reaching out to the Florida State University police and the university’s athletic department.
By the next day, it was as if the hit and run had never happened.
The New York Times looked into how the police handled this case, reviewing law enforcement records and interviewing witnesses, lawyers, the police and a university representative. The examination found that Mr. Williams, driving with a suspended license, was given a break by the Tallahassee police, who initially labeled the accident a hit and run, a criminal act, but later decided to issue him only two traffic tickets. Afterward, the case did not show up in the city’s public online database of police calls — a technical glitch, the police said.
Mr. Williams eventually returned to the scene. But Tallahassee officers did not test him for alcohol. Nor did their report indicate whether they asked if he had been drinking or why he had fled, logical questions since the accident occurred at 2:37 a.m. The report also minimized the impact of the crash on the driver of the other car, Ian Keith, by failing to indicate that his airbag deployed — an important detail because Mr. Keith said in an interview that the airbag had cut and bruised his hands.
The university police, who lacked jurisdiction, nevertheless sent two ranking officers — including the shift commander — to the scene. Yet they wrote no report about their actions that night. Florida State dismissed the role of its officers in the incident as too minor to require a report or enter into their own online police log, comparing it to an instance when campus officers responded to a baby opossum falling from a tree.
…
Elijah Stiers, a Miami lawyer who helped write a state law enacted this year that toughened penalties for hit-and-run drivers, said the basic facts of the Oct. 5 crash warranted criminal charges and a sobriety test.
“Two-thirty in the morning, people fleeing on foot — at the very least you’ve got to charge them with hit and run,” he said, adding, “You don’t get out of it just because you come back to the scene.”
…
In their report of the crash, the Tallahassee officers justified not charging Mr. Williams because he returned “approximately” 20 minutes later without being contacted by the police. That stands in sharp contrast to how the police treated another driver who left the scene and drove home after a minor, low-speed accident in the same area late last month. That driver and his mother contacted the police about a half-hour later to report the accident.
At 5 miles per hour, the collision inflicted far less damage than that caused by Mr. Williams’s car — and no injuries. Even so, the police charged the driver, who was not a Florida State football player, with hit and run.
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Heading into the fourth playoff vote : 1 zero loss, 6 one loss, and 12 two loss teams
0 loss teams (excluding Marshall)
ACC | Florida State
B 12 | none
B1G | none
PAC | none
SEC | none
1 loss teams (excluding Gang of 5 teams and IND’s other than Notre Dame)
ACC | none
B 12 | Baylor + TCU
B1G | Ohio State
PAC | Oregon
SEC | Alabama + Mississippi State
2 loss teams (excluding Gang of 5 teams and IND’s other than Notre Dame)
ACC | Georgia Tech + Duke
B 12 | Kansas State
B1G | Michigan State + Wisconsin + Nebraska
PAC | UCLA + Arizona + Arizona State
SEC | Missouri + Georgia + Mississippi
.
…
…..
…
.
Week 12 clips Mississippi State from the undefeated ranks
FBS football = 2 of 128 remain (1.5625%)
Big 5 = 1 of 64 remain (1.5625%)
ACC —- 1 of 14 or 7.14% remain
Atlantic : Florida State (10-0, 7-0)
Costal : None after Week 7
Boston College (6-4, 3-3) vs Florida State
B12 —- 0/10 || None after week 8
B1G —- 0/14 || East : NONE after Week 5 | West : NONE after Week 6
PAC —- 0/12 || North : NONE after week 6 | South : NONE after week 7
SEC —- 0/14 || East : NONE after Week 4 | West : NONE after Week 12
.
…
.
non Big 5 = 1 of 64 remain (1.5625%)
MWC : NONE after Week 3 // 0 of 12 remain
SUNB : NONE after Week 3 // 0 of 11 remain
MAC : NONE after Week 4 // 0 of 13 remain
AAC : NONE after Week 5 // 0 of 11 remain
IND : NONE after Week 8 // 0 of 4 remain
CUSA : Marshall (10-0, 6-0) // 1 of 13 remain or 7.69%
Marshall @ UAB (5-5, 3-3)
.
…
.
Drawing dead after Week 3 : Mountain West and Sun Belt
Drawing dead after Week 4 : SEC East and MAC
Drawing dead after Week 5 : B1G East and American Athletic
Drawing dead after Week 6 : B1G West and PAC North
Drawing dead after Week 7 : ACC Costal and PAC South
Drawing dead after Week 8 : IND
Drawing dead after Week 9 : none
Drawing dead after Week 10 : none
Drawing dead after Week 11 : none
Drawing dead after Week 12 : SEC West
.
…
.
Bowl Eligible Week 7
ACC Florida State
B 12 Baylor
CUSA Marshall
IND Notre Dame
SEC Mississippi + Mississippi State
Bowl Eligible Week 8
ACC Louisville + Duke
B1G Michigan State + Minnesota + Nebraska
MWC Colorado State
PAC Oregon
SEC Georgia + Alabama + LSU
Bowl Eligible Week 9
ACC East Carolina
ACC Clemson + Georgia Tech
B 12 Kansas State + West Virginia + TCU
B1G Ohio State
MAC Northern Illinois
MWC Boise State
PAC Arizona State + Arizona + Utah + UCLA
SEC Missouri + Auburn
S B Georgia Southern
Bowl Eligible Week 10
ACC Boston College + Miami
B 12 Oklahoma
B1G Maryland + Iowa + Wisconsin
CUSA Louisiana Tech
MAC Western Michigan + Central Michigan
MWC Nevada + Air Force + Utah State
PAC Washington + Southern California
SEC Texas A&M
Bowl Eligible Week 11
AAC Memphis
CUSA Rice
MAC Bowling Green + Toledo
S B LA – Lafayette + Arkansas State
Bowl Eligible Week 12
AAC Cincinnati + Central Florida + East Carolina
ACC North Carolina State
B 12 Texas
B1G Penn State + Rutgers
CUSA UT – El Paso
IND BYU
S B South Alabama
Bowl Eligible still possible
AAC Houston + Temple + South Florida
ACC North Carolina + Virginia Tech + Pittsburgh + Virginia
B 12 Oklahoma State
B1G Michigan + Northwestern + Purdue
CUSA MTSU + UAB + WKU + ODU
IND Navy
MAC Ohio + Buffalo + Akron
MWC San Diego State + Fresno State + Wyoming
PAC Stanford + California + Oregon State
SEC Florida + South Carolina + Tennessee + Kentucky + Arkansas
S B Appalachian State + Texas State
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Those 0, 1, 2 loss teams are your likely Big 6 bowl contestants except for the Orange host and the G5 best team. Marshall (unbeaten), CSU (1 loss) and Boise (2 loss) are the leads for the latter. If they start losing, it goes to a 3 loss team like Memphis. Orange host could be Duke, Georgia Tech or Clemson, with Louisville a long shot.
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Tend to agree, as the lone lesser child will get a spot and the rest will get divided among the 5 primary. Notre Dame picking up the 3rd loss probably eliminated them from the 6 bowls.
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Sources say Will Muschamp has been fired at UF.
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Will have any number of schools seeking a DC beating his door down.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. FSU
2. AL
3. OR
4. MS St
5. TCU
6. Baylor
7. OSU
8. MS
9. MSU
10. UGA
15. WI
19. NE
By losses:
0 – #1, 18
1 – #2-7, 23
2 – #8-16, 19-20, 25
3 – #17, 21-22, 24
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State of the races:
ACC A – FSU clinched
ACC C – 4-2 Duke needs to beat UNC and WF to win it. Otherwise 6-2 GT wins it.
B12 – 5-1 Baylor needs to win out (OkSU, TT, KSU) to win it. Otherwise 5-1 TCU (UT, ISU) has the tiebreaker over 5-1 KSU (WV, KU, Baylor).
B10 E – OSU needs a win (IN, MI) or a MSU loss (RU, PSU) to clinch.
B10 W – 5-1 WI has the edge, but 4-2 MN controls it’s own destiny and 4-2 NE is still alive.
P12 N – OR clinched
P12 S – 4 2-loss teams (UCLA has wins over ASU and UA and plays USC)
SEC E – 5-1 MO (TN, AR) leads 6-2 UGA, but UGA has the tiebreaker
SEC W – 6-1 AL (WCU, AU) leads 5-1 MS St (Vandy, MS) and 4-2 MS which beat AL earlier.
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With an extremely improbably set of upsets, Texas, Oklahoma and/or West Virginia could tie for the Big 12 title. Someone calculated the odds of Texas tying, based on some websites game probabilities, and it was something like 700,000 to 1. But there actually could theoretically be a 6 way tie.
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Also, Iowa wins its last two and Minnesota loses 1 and they win Big 10 W.
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Yes, there are other scenarios possible. I just picked the most likely ones.
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Adam Silver wrote an op-ed advocating for the legalization of sports betting on pro games.
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http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP poll
1. FSU
2. AL
3. OR
4. MS St
5. TCU
6. Baylor
7. OSU
8. MS
9. UGA
10. MSU
14. WI
21. NE
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It looks like Todd Gurley tore his ACL in his comeback game against AU.
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I think something crazy may be possible in the CFB Playoff, let’s say that Wisconsin wins the Big Ten, USC wins the Pac-12 and Missouri beats Alabama for the SEC title. I could see the top 4 would be…
1.) Florida State (12-0)
2.) Baylor (11-1)
3.) TCU (11-1)
4.) Mississippi State (11-1)
Would anyone complain about that? I wouldn’t, and it would show the CFB Playoff works but a 10-2 Wisconsin, 10-3 or 9-4 USC & 10-2 Missouri would be upset not getting in but I don’t think the public would hold it against the CFB Playoff committee.
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3 P5 conferences champions get left out, and co champs from one get in?
Nothing to complain about here…
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It would actually be 2 P5 conference champions in the CFB Playoff as Baylor holds the tie-breaker over TCU, which I think TCU could still be involved since they lost by a field goal to Baylor. It would be Mississippi State who wouldn’t be able to play in the SEC Championship getting in over Missouri or Georgia who wins the SEC Championship.
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That’s still 60% of P5 champios left out. Not a formula for wide acceptance from CFB fan base. This isn’t the NFL, whose national following could probably handle a beauty contest more easily yet actually has an objective result based playoff system (although far too large).
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I think the Big 12 should move to 14 schools. BYU, Cincinnati, Colorado State & Houston. Look at the divisions.
Big 14 North
BYU
Cincinnati
Colorado State
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
West Virginia
Big 14 South
Baylor
Houston
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
TCU
Texas
Texas Tech
You get one permanent rival, rotate 2 out-of-division opponents and it allows the Big 12 to keep its 9-game scheduling. ESPN & FOX Sports would likely pay for the upgrade and it allows the teams to keep their Tier-3 rights.
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I’m sure Fox executives are salivating at a potential Kansas vs Colorado State matchup. BYU would maybe carry enough financial value to pay for itself–maybe. Cincy, Colorado State, and Houston would be mooches, decreasing per school revenue. No incentive to add those schools.
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Expanding to 12 makes some sense, expanding to 14 makes less sense than staying at 10. Two more teams and you get a CCG but might as well wait on the next 2 till the next round of realignment.
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I still say the best solution is USF/UCF. Tampa market, Orlando market. Two Florida schools in talent rich areas. Combining Texas/Florida would be a great recruiting coup.
As an ACC guy, however, I hope the BIg XII goes in a different direction.
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Though there is a divisional problem in the Big12 if they expand, and the divisions at 14 might gain more support among the incumbents than the divisions at 12.
Of course, if there was an easy and compelling expansion, they would have expanded already, which points to allowing the pot to simmer some more years and see how some of the candidates progress.
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So who will finish first, the Terps or the Gophers? Both schools have got the ball rolling on major upgrades to their respective athletics facilities. Minnesota is a bit ahead right now, but Kevin Plank is going to write a bigger check than the current top gift of 25 million for Minnesota’s vision. On the other hand, there’s an excess of riches in Minnesota, question is: Who’ll jump aboard?
Btw, both look like great plans, Minnesota’s is a bit nicer and more encompassing, but I’m sure Md can keep pace. The Md plans include a significant soccer stadium proposal.
Minnesota:
http://www.nothingshortofgreatness.com/saexcellence.php
Maryland:
Click to access 4-umcpcole.pdf
Have at it!
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I’d say Maryland gets theirs done quicker. Apparently they have most of the funding lined up. Not sure Minnesota’s will be nicer. All these new facilities are generally similar. I’d expect Maryland to have an Under Armor feel.
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I just read on 247 sports that Plank is stopping at 25 million, at least for now. That’s equal to Minnesota’s largest donation so far. There’s plenty of people in Minnesota who could fund this damn thing in a matter of minutes. But I think the fundraising campaign is definitely seeking a broad range of investments.
I do think Minnesota’s will be nicer, click the links and view the photo galleries – more breadth to their vision – crafty layout. Minnesota’s will also be more expensive. Md looks to be sinking more into the soccer stadium than expected. But these are both far from done.
I’ve been to all but Rutgers in the BIG. It’s a shame how underrated Minnesota’s campus is, but not for long. Just explosive growth on campus and now a major light rail line runs through the heart of campus.
I am, however, disgusted by the trend of corporate, faux urban student housing throughout the campus, something quite common across the country.
NW is also a campus on fire with development – also another underrated BIG campus.
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That may be true on how much Plank is donating but from what I gather there are other donors and they are expected to break ground next year. They are asking the state to contribute for the medical building component and another 25 million will be borrowed and repaid through B1G revenue. The balance is mostly donors. Essentially most of the $155 is accounted for currently.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/21
New CFP top 25:
1. AL
2. OR
3. FSU
4. MS St
5. TCU
6. OSU
7. Baylor
8. MS
9. UCLA
10. UGA
11. MSU
16. WI
23. NE
25. MN
Notes:
* SEC – 6, P12 – 6, B10 – 5, ACC – 4, B12 – 4
* I was glad to see they took the weather and TOs into account for OSU.
* I think MS is too high. MSU is too low.
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Also, note that W/L record is still huge.
Losses:
0 – #3
1 – #1-2, 4-7
2 – #8-13, 15-16, 18, 20, 23
3 – #14, 17, 21-22, 24-25
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I am okay with most of the poll but I think Michigan State is too low. I think Georgia and Auburn are too high. I don’t get how Georgia’s strength of schedule is so high when you actually look at who they played and where. Their losses are not good compared to Michigan State.
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Kevin,
“I am okay with most of the poll but I think Michigan State is too low.”
I’m with you.
“I think Georgia and Auburn are too high.”
The committee is infatuated with AU because of SOS. They won at #12 KSU. They killed LSU, but LSU isn’t ranked anymore. They lost at #4 MS St. They won at #8 MS (who is too high). That’s all great. But they lost to a mediocre TAMU and then got crushed by UGA.
“I don’t get how Georgia’s strength of schedule is so high when you actually look at who they played and where. Their losses are not good compared to Michigan State.”
But they crushed AU, and the committee loves AU. They also beat a ranked Clemson OOC and shut out a ranked MO team on the road. I agree they’re too high, but the committee is on that SEC bandwagon.
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The committee does love Auburn. They also rely way too much, IMO, on the eyeball test. Mississippi St. has beaten 1 top 25 team and only played 2. The only teams they have dominated are UT-Martin, Southern Miss and South Alabama. They struggled against UAB, Kentucky and Arkansas. But they look good performing in a mediocre manner. Alabama has only played 2 top 25 teams as well.
Mississippi St. s/b 6 or 7. Alabama should be no better than #3. I don’t really have a problem with Ole Miss. UCLA is the only 2 loss team with arguably a better resume.
I don’t know how you rate Georgia. They’re very Jekyll and Hyde. I am pretty confident that if they get in the SEC ccg, they win, no matter who they play.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/103413/playoff-breakdown-if-the-games-were-today-3
If the games were today:
12/31
12:30p Peach = 10. UGA vs Marshall (yawn)
4p Fiesta = 7. Baylor vs 9. UCLA
8p Orange = 18. GT vs 8. MS
1/1
12:30p Cotton = 5. TCU vs 6. OSU
5p Rose = 2. OR vs 3. FSU
8:30p Sugar = 1. AL vs 4. MS St (rematch)
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So, Kentucky just slammed #5 Kansas 72-40. I think it says more about Kansas, but I do expect this offense to improve.
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Arizona State hockey is going D1
http://www.foxsports.com/arizona/story/arizona-state-to-launch-division-i-hockey-program-111814
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Logic dictates Iowa soon to start surfing, Miami-an alpine ski team…
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Well rowing is one of the sports ASU is looking at adding for women.
Sun Devils hockey!?!
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Seems strange for ASU to add hockey. Who will they play? Are there nearby D1 programs other than in Colorado? Would think travel would be tough.
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@Kevin – The Colorado schools (Denver, Colorado College, Air Force) are the closest schools. Granted, one thing that ASU has going for it is that it’s located in a major market that has direct flights to a wide breadth of destinations (so that has to be weighed against schools in small towns in the upper Midwest that don’t have that luxury even if they have other hockey schools are technically geographically closer).
This is just my gut feeling, but I think ASU will be fairly successful for hockey. They will likely have a stranglehold over any hockey players that come out of California and I’m sure that they’d be attractive to Texas-based players that aren’t interested in cold weather winters, too. Those aren’t big hockey player-producing states on a per capita basis, but the sheer population from those two places alone (much less the rest of the West) can certainly support a solid D-1 hockey program. Plus, ASU has already been attracting a large contingent of Chicago students, too, and that’s another market where D-1 hockey talent is getting dispersed because of the lack of a home-based program. (Hence, my continuous call for an Illinois alum to spare $100 million or so to create an Illini hockey program that I firmly believe would do gangbusters.) There was a huge opening on the West Coast and in the Southwest for a D-1 hockey program to fill and Arizona State is now the first mover. I don’t necessarily think that there will be enough hockey talent to sustain a full Pac-12 hockey conference, but ASU alone can definitely fill a currently unmet need.
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There’s also an interesting stat that Jim Delany pointed out a couple of years ago: the Phoenix metro area actually has more Big Ten grads living there than Pac-12 grads. While many Sun Belt towns have a fair number of Northern transplants, it’s particularly acute in Phoenix specifically. So, a well-located hockey team can certainly draw interest there. (Emphasis on “well-located”, as the Coyotes arena isn’t well-located at all in relation to the Scottsdale/Mesa/Tempe side of the area where most of the Midwestern transplants live.)
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@Frank – I just quickly pulled the home state of each player in the top junior league, the USHL, from their website. These kids are basically the top recruits for college programs. I’m a little surprised how much talent the state produces.
MN 61
MI 59
IL 45
NY 27
CA 25
WI 22
MO 18
OH 11
NJ 11
PA 11
CO 10
TX 8
FL 8
AK 5
NE 4
IN 4
AZ 4
CT 3
VA 3
UT 3
MD 3
IA 3
ID 3
ND 3
WA 2
NV 2
RI 2
NH 2
NC 1
VT 1
SD 1
TN 1
OK 1
GA 1
ME 1
DC 1
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Yep, ASU will do well in recruiting with CA nearby (winter sports definitely have adherents there). MO surprisingly high on the list. New England is pretty weak (I know that, unlike the upper-Midwest, hockey is seen as a rich kids’ sport there).
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ccrider55,
“Logic dictates Iowa soon to start surfing, Miami-an alpine ski team…”
Nebraska has beach volleyball, IIRC.
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But all they needed to play beach volleyball in downtown London for the Olympics was to truck in the sand, and Nebraska does have the Sand Hills, so they have plenty of sand. They are laying the groundwork to take over the sport when the rising seas floods out all of the natural beaches.
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1.) Florida State
2.) Oregon
3.) Alabama
4.) Mississippi State
5.) Ohio State
6.) Baylor
7.) TCU
8.) Ole Miss
9.) UCLA
10.) Georgia
That’s my Top 10 CFB Rankings. Florida State hasn’t lost and shouldn’t be punished for being the defending National Champions. I’m not mad at Mississippi State being #4 but eventually I think Ohio State would overtake them. The Final 4 is most likely Alabama, Oregon, Florida State & Ohio State.
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The 2014-15 FSU team is not the defending champion. They didn’t win the 2014-15 title last year. People keep ascribing that saying born and somewhat more applicable in boxing (and perhaps other individual sports). Is everyone still the same as last year, opponents included?
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I think Mississippi St. is in if they win out, unless they completely re-evaluate things. Noone else will have a win over #8 in the last few weeks. Now sometimes they do seem to completely re-evaluate things. So there may be hope.
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In a radio interview, either Hancock or Long said 4-7 were very close right now. If so, then conference championships should matter and MS St will drop. Also, OSU still has the CCG and Baylor will play KSU. Those games are bigger than the Egg Bowl considering what’s on the line.
And again, I don’t see how MS is #8 especially after Treadwell’s injury.
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I agree that conf championships will be the decider ultimately. I have a lunch bet with my coworker who taking the opposite view. We’ll find out in a couple of weeks.
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I think AL and Miss. St. are overrated. Ole Miss looks about right for now. Who would you put ahead of them? I don’t think anyone has an argument but UCLA. After the top 9, everyone has lots of flaws in their resume or little to claim.
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MS has one good win, and they wouldn’t get that now with Treadwell hurt.
I’d look at all of these teams above MS: UCLA, UGA, MSU, KSU and ASU
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http://big12fanatic.com/poll-position-week-13/
Interesting take on how the poll played out. Says he was able to model it pretty well-until this week when everything got thrown out the window.
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https://secexposed.wordpress.com/
Site questions this week’s playoff poll and has a few links of others saying the same thing. Mostly its a rant against the “SEC/ESPN conspiracy.” There’s starting to be more complaints.
I really think the committee is starting to lose credibility this week with Alabama jumping to #1 and Miss. St. staying #4. Every criteria they’ve talked about says MSU can’t be as high as #4. And Alabama jumping that high is pretty questionable also. They talk about Baylor’s weak ooc strength of schedule but ignore MSU’s. They talk about big wins and Alabama and MSU each only have 1 win vs. their top 25. Then they invent the concept of “game control.” TCU didn’t have it vs. Kansas. Alabama did vs. MSU. But MSU stays high because they only lost by 5 (even though Alabama “controlled” them). And they ignore that Alabama almost lost to Arkansas and LSU.
I don’t think having similar arguments 7 times improves their ability to get it right in December. The ratings haven’t been static, but positions may harden and you start to get silly new concepts to justify very subjective eyeball tests.
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@bullet – That has been my problem with the committee so far. The standards are shifting from week-to-week where it’s basically all coming down to justifying a love for the SEC regardless of the results. I’m a Big Ten fan that doesn’t really buy many of these SEC conspiracy theories (because they legitimately have had a disproportionate number of the top teams in college football for almost the past decade) and I’ve stated on this blog before that Big Ten fans need to stop whining over any supposed love that ESPN has for the SEC. However, in this particular case, the committee’s reasoning this week is almost blatantly geared toward ensuring that at least one SEC team is in the playoff come hell or high water. For instance, if Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl, then they’re in position to jump back into the top 4 since Mississippi State is still ranked so high (and whoever wins the Egg Bowl can stay in the top 4 even if Alabama ends up losing to Auburn or in the SEC Championship Game). Like I’ve said, the committee is showing to be a poll with just a much smaller voting population (so any single person with a bias is getting exacerbated in the results).
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Your link doesn’t work.
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Correction:
http://big12fanatics.com/poll-position-week-13/
This link should work.
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Another Chicago lawyer blogs. Do you guys have writer’s workshops?
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/19/7245005/college-football-coach-hot-seat-avoidance
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Coaches’ salaries from USA Today.
http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/
Top 27 ($3mm and over) by conference.
SEC (10): #1 Bama, #4 A&M, #7 LSU, #10 S Car, #12 Auburn, #16 Mizzou, #17 UGA, #20 Ark, #25 Ole Miss, #27 Miss State
Big XII (6): #3 Oklahoma, #5 Texas, #11 TCU, #15 OK State, #22 Baylor, #23 West VA
B1G (5): #2 Mich State, #6 Ohio State, #8 Penn State, #9 Iowa, #24 Nebraska
Pac-12 (3): #13 Wash, #18 Arizona, #19 UCLA (USC did not disclose)
ACC (3) #14 Fla State, #21 Clemson, #26 Louisville
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Not many successful programs are off of that list. 55 of the 60 disclosed P5 coaches make $1.8M or more; Notre Dame at $1.5M is an outlier. Oregon, Stanford, and Wisconsin are successful at about $2M. Rutgers is the only P5 school that pays <$1M.
Not on $3M+ list:
SEC: KY, Vandy (not disclosed), TN (j#28), FL (will be with new coach next year)
Big XII: KSU (#29, Bill Snyder is not going anywhere), ISU, TT, KS (Weiss was at $2.5M)
B1G: MI $2.9M; NW $2.5M, WI $2,2M; IL,MD,MN,Purdue $1.9M-$2.1M; IN $1.3M; Rutgers 1M
P12: ASU, WSU $2.7M; UT $2.2M, CO, OR, Stanford $2M; CA $1.8M, OrSt $1.5M
ACC: VT, GT $2.6M; VA, Miami $2.3M; Duke, NC, NCSU $1.8M; Pitt $1.6M, others no data
I expect Michigan will join the $3M+ club with a new coach; they are just below with Hoke at #30.
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Details of the SEC bowl selection process.
Click to access SEC%20Bowl%20Selection%20Process%202014.pdf
Obviously SEC-centric, but I thought y’all might find it interesting since there are so many SEC/B1G bowls. There were a few items I wasn’t aware of as well, including this:
“3) How can SEC Team be selected to participate in the Orange Bowl?
When the Orange Bowl is not a semifinal game and an SEC team is the highest ranked team
among the non-champions of the SEC and Big Ten and ranked higher than Notre Dame then
that team will participate in the Orange Bowl. There are eight years in which the Orange Bowl
is not a semifinal game and the SEC is guaranteed three of the eight years, the Big Ten is
guaranteed three of the eight years and the remaining two years can be filled by Notre Dame,
the SEC or the Big Ten based on CFP Selection Committee rankings. To be clear, the SEC
Champion can never participate in the Orange Bowl unless it is a semifinal game.”
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What happens if UGA wins this year and doesn’t make the playoffs? They would likely be the highest SEC team not in the playoffs.
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Then they’d be in the Fiesta, Cotton, or Peach Bowls. The Orange cannot take a conference champ (that was a concession to the other 3 bowls).
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Orlando gets in the opening weekend OOC neutral site game with Florida State and Ole Miss in 2016.
http://www.seminoles.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=32900&ATCLID=209772693
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http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/103462/ohio-state-deserves-to-be-in-top-four
An ACC reporter for ESPN.com makes the case for OSU in the playoff.
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http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2014/11/19/chip-brown-sec-will-prevent-am-from-matchup-with-ut/
Chip Brown is reporting that the SEC is telling the SEC/B12 bowls they will not allow a UT/TAMU bowl game because of the potential recruiting downside for TAMU and the SEC if TAMU loses.
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One wonders whether they mentioned that constraint when they first negotiated those SEC/Big12 bowls.
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http://www.heraldsun.com/breakingnews/x761892513/ACC-commissioner-Swofford-8-teams-ideal-for-playoff
John Swofford:
Speaking at Wednesday’s weekly Durham Sports Club meeting at the Croasdaile Country Club, Swofford said an eight-team playoff, “in terms of the number of teams, would probably be ideal.”
…
Swofford said educational concerns limited the initial rollout of the system to four teams.
“I do think it has a great deal of potential,” he said. “The question is asked a lot, ‘Why not eight?’ or ‘Will it become eight in a few years?’ I can tell you why not eight, right now: The presidents made the decision as to how far we can go with the playoff, and the bookends are exams in December, and the presidents don’t want football to become a two semester sport. Those concerns are education-based. So I think they’re appropriate.”
…
He expects the major college conferences to remain stable for a while after a “tumultuous decade” that saw many teams switch conferences, including his own league’s addition of four teams in the last three years.
“For the next 12 to 15 years, I don’t think you’ll see movement in the Power Five conferences,” Swofford said. “Unless someone grows and adds a team not currently in the Power Five, but I don’t think you’ll see any teams moving within it.”
Swofford also said that the ACC has been “quietly aggressive” in working toward an ACC television channel, similar to the SEC’s venture with ESPN that debuted this year.
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000430441/article/buckeyes-braxton-miller-has-options-but-plans-to-stay-for-now?campaign=Twitter_nfl_cfb
Braxton Miller still plans to return to OSU next year.
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That should be fun. Two Heisman-quality quarterbacks on the same team. How would you get both on the field at the same time?
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Do to Barrett what should have been done to Tebow in his latter Florida years – use him as a hybrid FB/TE/H-back. If it doesnt work, it was just one year and he could be a pilot case for a “bad-position-switch redshirt”. Jamarcus Russell would have been an all-pro TE in the NFL right now if someone had the nads to make him switch.
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LOL! Tebow led the country in passer rating his senior year, while rushing for 910 yards and 14 TD. But they should’ve moved him to H-Back.
The stupidity on the internet never ceases to amaze.
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I think I would move Miller to RB. He is a better runner. Barrett is a better passer. Both are too small for TE or H-back.
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bob sykes,
“I think I would move Miller to RB. He is a better runner. Barrett is a better passer. Both are too small for TE or H-back.”
OSU uses a small H-back in Urban Meyer’s offense (the Percy Harvin position).
H-backs – Wilson = 5’10” 188, Marshall = 5’11” 205
QBs – Barrett = 6’1″ 225, Miller = 6’2″ 215
RBs – Elliott = 6’0″ 225, Samuel = 5’11” 196 (originally recruited as an H-back)
I’d consider putting both in the backfield on many plays, especially to run true run/pass option plays. Miller fits OSU’s H-back role pretty well plus it’d make for some tough defensive choices when he touches the ball in the backfield.
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A pitch to Miller in a run-pass option sounds like a real nightmare for the linebackers with responsibilities on that side. That gives you not only multiple play action pass sets, but also multiple pass action run opportunities.
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LSU could use him.
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http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/21/duke-unc-acc-coastal-division-title-college-football-week-13
In an important game last night, UNC crushed Duke 45-20. That clinched the ACC Coastal for GT. That means rather than FSU facing an easily out-manned Duke team, they’ll face the #3 rushing offense in the country with their unusual triple option. FSU’s odds of losing are much higher now. #18 GT is 9-2 and play at UGA next week. A 9-3 GT team will probably rank in the 20s. Assuming GT loses to FSU, they’ll probably become unranked. That would leave #22 Clemson and #24 Louisville as the possible choices to replace FSU in the Orange Bowl. Clemson hosts SC this year, but SC has won 5 straight in the series. UL faces ND and then UK.
The Orange Bowl is really hoping Clemson beats SC so they aren’t stuck with an unranked team.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/gametracker/recap/NCAAF_20141120_KSTATE@WVU/no-12-kansas-state-beats-west-virginia-26-20
In the other big game last night, #12 KSU won at WV 26-20. WV is now 6-5 (4-4).
B12 standings:
1t. TCU 6-1 (beat KSU, lost to Baylor)
1t. KSU 6-1 (ends the year vs Baylor)
3. Baylor 5-1 (lost to WV)
This game had playoff implications. WV losing hurt Baylor by making their loss look worse, and AL a little (best OOC win). In turn, it helped TCU and OSU.
If Baylor wins out, they’d win the tiebreaker to represent the B12. OSU is already ahead of them in the rankings, the WV loss now looks comparable to the VT loss, and they have comparable slates left (3 games each: Baylor – OkSU, TT, KSU; OSU – IN, MI, CCG).
If Baylor loses to KSU, then TCU wins the tiebreaker. OSU is just behind them in the rankings, but OSU has a better slate left (TCU – UT, ISU) and thus a decent chance to pass them.
TCU is helped because their loss to Baylor hasn’t been a factor yet due to disparate resumes. Anything that makes Baylor look worse helps maintain that separation .
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No longer a chance for a 6 way tie in the Big 12. 5 still theoretically possible.
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Bowl eligibility by conference:
ACC – 9 in, 1 5 win, 2 6 loss, 2 out
B10 – 9 in, 1 5 win, 2 6 loss, 2 out
B12 – 6 in, 1 5 win, 3 out
P12 – 6 in, 4 5 win, 2 out
SEC – 8 in, 5 5 win, 1 6 loss (5-6), 1 out
Likely totals:
ACC 10-11
B10 10-11
B12 6
P12 8-9
SEC 11
That’s 45-48 of 64.
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70%-75% of the P5 going bowling … a shorthand right there of why they don’t “split off from the Go5”.
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Goldy Gopher and Faux Pelini create the “The Bits of Wooden Chair Trophy” for Nebraska and Minnesota.
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Really hope it sticks.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2014/11/23/7269933/nebraska-minnesota-broken-chair-trophy
Minny players actually carried it off the field on Saturday.
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@Wainscott – Now THAT is how you create a trophy. Absolutely beautiful.
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Totally agree. However, I haven’t seen any comments from either Nebraska or Minny that the trophy will actually continue or was a one-off.
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It doesn’t seem like comments at this point matter all that much. What really matters is whether it gets brought to next year’s game and then the winner carries it off. If it does, whether the Gophers or the Huskers win, that’ll be pretty much that … after the Gophers carrying it off twice, the Huskers would insist on carrying it off in their next win in the series, or else after the Gophers carrying it off and the Huskers claiming it back, the Gophers would insist on carrying it off in their next win.
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Comments from Athletic Director’s or others in position to state such with authority.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jon-solomon/24826158/antitrust-law-professors-support-ncaas-obannon-appeal
15 antitrust-law professors wrote a brief backing the NCAA’s O’Bannon appeal.
In the brief, the professors wrote that U.S. District Judge Claudia Wilken “misapplied” the less-restrictive alternative prong of her analysis that found the NCAA violated antitrust law.
…
If Wilken’s judgment is upheld, it “would substantially expand the power of the federal courts to alter organizational rules that serve important social and academic interests,” the antitrust-law professors wrote. “… This approach expands the ‘less restrictive alternative prong’ of the antitrust rule of reason well beyond any appropriate boundaries and would install the judiciary as a regulatory agency for collegiate athletics.”
The professors wrote there is “limited appellate authority” regarding the question about the scope of the less-restrictive alternative. Most cases are decided by a plaintiff’s failure to establish harm to competition, or a defendant’s failure to support a procompetitive justification, the brief states.
But the professors argued there are precedents “that make it clear the district court overstepped its bounds” and allowing antitrust courts to “impose their own views” could leave other organizations open to suit.
“For example, a court could easily follow the reasoning below to require compensation for Little League baseball players at a level deemed ‘fair’ by a district judge,” the professors wrote. “Similarly, a kennel club could be required to alter its breed standard if a breeder claims to have been excluded because their dogs are an inch or two shorter than the adopted standard. … Courts would have free rein to rewrite any rule adopted by an organization plausibly found to have restrained a relevant market if they can identify modest changes that may (or may not) be fairer.”
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/11/21/college-football-notebook-florida-pj-fleck-melvin-gordon-jt-barrett/70026216/
The UF job isn’t quite as good as people think it is.
The common perception is that Florida’s head coaching job, which opened this week when the school announced it would part ways with Will Muschamp at the end of the season, is among the four best in college football alongside Texas, Alabama and Southern California.
The reason most often given is that Florida, as the flagship university in the nation’s most fertile talent-producing state, has natural advantages that should allow it to compete for Southeastern Conference and national titles practically every year.
But is Florida really a top-three job, or is the national perception better than the reality?
USA TODAY Sports posed that question to several agents and others tied to the coaching search industry, who agreed to give their opinion on the condition of anonymity to protect any potential dealings with Florida during the search.
The consensus response: Though Florida is an excellent job, there may be some hidden issues that would, as one suggested, put it behind the likes of Texas, Alabama, Ohio State and perhaps a couple others.
“If those elite jobs are a 10, Florida is a 9.5,” the person said.
Why is Florida, which won national titles in 1996, 2006 and 2008, considered within the industry to be just a touch less attractive than the best jobs in the country?
Facilities and expectations.
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http://bloguin.com/thestudentsection/2014/uniforms-of-the-week-usc-and-ucla-continue-a-colorful-tradition.html
I really wish more rivalries did this. Almost every major rivalry would be better this way. Army/Navy is about the only exception (black and navy might be too similar).
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I think someone mentioned this previously.
Nebraska and Wisconsin should play each year for the right to wear red.
Why does one team always have to wear white?
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You no longer have to wear white. The NCAA changed the rule, assuming the home and road teams agreed to do it.
From the NCAA Football rule book, rule 1:
ARTICLE 5. a. Players of opposing teams shall wear jerseys of contrasting colors. Players on the same team shall wear jerseys of the same color and design.
1. The visiting team shall wear white jerseys; however, the home team may wear white jerseys if the teams have agreed in writing before the season.
2. If the home team wears colored jerseys, the visiting team may also wear colored jerseys, if and only if the following conditions have been satisfied:
a. The home team has agreed in writing prior to the game; and
b. The conference of the home team certifies that the jersey of the visiting team is of a contrasting color.
3. If on the kickoff at the start of each half, the visiting team wears a colored jersey in violation of the conditions specified in paragraph 2 (above), it is a foul for unsportsmanlike conduct.
As you can see from 1.5.a.1, teams can prevent LSU from wearing white at home by refusing to approve it. I believe one team did that recently. LSU doesn’t always choose to wear white at home, though.
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USC used crimson at UCLA when the penalty was loss of a time out. Neuheisel imediately took a TO so the teams would start even. Rule was changed to allow soon after. Team could give two 15 yard penalties if they really wanted to when other team didn’t agree.
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Oops…they wore cardinal. Crimson would have deserved a penalty.
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Young Neuheisel looks like a protopical junior high quarterback from the Big Ten’s western states or the DuPage Valley Conference (Frank – are you in one of the “Valley” high school districts? – they’re gonna mop the old line DVC schools once they start playing rvery year.)
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So if they have agreed in writing before the game that the next year, the winner may wear red, whether home or away, and the loser may wear white, whether home or away, and the B1G certifies that Red and White are contrasting colors, then they are allowed to do that under the current rules.
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Yep.
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http://www.ncaa.com/news/soccer-men/article/2014-11-20/ohio-state-advances-second-round-after-15-rounds-penalty-kicks
OSU beat Akron in the NCAA soccer tournament after 2OT and 15 rounds of penalty kicks (13-12). Not that it matters, since the winner gets #1 seed ND next. What a silly way to determine a winner, though.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jon-solomon/24825932/murky-game-control-becomes-a-tool-for-playoff-committee
The latest playoff controversy – game control. What does it really mean? Why doesn’t it apply equally to everyone? And perhaps worst of all, is it a coincidence that ESPN started using their own made up stat of “game control” this season?
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/11/21/college-football-playoff-committee-chairman-jeff-long-game-control/19347937/
More from Jeff Long about it.
As chairman of the College Football Playoff selection committee, Jeff Long is charged each week with explaining the sometimes shifting rationale behind the committee’s Top 25. It’s sometimes a difficult spot to be in. But Tuesday, when he used some variation of “controlled the game” several times, it touched off some confusion.
Was Long referring to “game control,” the advanced statistic created by and promoted by ESPN? Or to some other similar (and new) metric used by the committee?
“There’s absolutely no metric involved,” Long told USA TODAY Sports. “It’s a discussion amongst committee members about controlling the game.”
And he added: “The committee had not and does not and will not use that ESPN metric. Many of us were unaware of that ESPN metric.”
Essentially, the “game control” concept, as used by Long, is just another attempt to describe a team playing well — or not — in winning: an evaluation of how a team wins. It’s subjective — but by definition, as the committee attempts to determine the “best” teams, so is the entire process.
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Need something, because the anointed conference is playing: Charleston So
Samford
E. Kentucky
S. Alabama
W. Carolina
Yeah, that makes up for only 8 conference games.
(With the caviot that a few teams do schedule a couple good OOC games)
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By the time next week’s games have ended, SEC teams will have played:
-A Big Ten West Champion (Wisconsin might end up in a tie, but they have clinched at least a share of the title)
-3 of the Top 6 teams in the Big 12 (If the Longhorns lose to TCU & WVU beats Iowa State, that will improve to 3 of the top 5 teams in the Big 12)
-all 4 of the top 4 teams in the ACC, playing one those teams twice
That’s a quite strong schedule teams even if you don’t consider top-tier mid-majors, like Boise State, Utah State, Memphis, Northern Illinois, and UCF, or lesser power teams, like Texas Tech and…sigh…Indiana.
Now the SEC will likely take a few more OOC losses this week (I don’t think any of the 4 ACC/SEC East games this week are a given for either team), but there’s a reason why just about every computer ranking is very high on the SEC. It’s actually played many of the best non-SEC teams in the country, and produced a very strong, though not perfect (thank’s Indiana!) performance.
The only thing really missing, is a Pac 12 matchup.
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“The only thing really missing, is a Pac 12 matchup.”
And a 9th conference game. No way to find room for a PAC team or two among 56 OOC games..
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-hockey/spec-rel/m-hockey-standings.html
B10 conference hockey got started this week. OSU and MSU split a pair of games and PSU beat MI.
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A fairly important slate of B10 games at noon today.
#6 OSU looked terrible beating IN, but did pull away in the fourth quarter. That’s going to hurt the resume, but they clinched the East.
IL beat PSU and NW beat PU, so IL/NW is for bowl eligibility next week. PSU is already bowl eligible and PU was already ineligible, so no harm there.
#25 MN beat #23 NE in a tight game. That’s good for OSU and TCU (and MN, obviously). It may be the loss that gets Pelini fired, though (not because MN is bad at all, but because NE fans are so sick of losing 3 games).
B10 West race:
WI 5-1
MN 5-2 (beat IA)
IA 4-2
NE 4-3
MN and WI control their own destiny in the West.
If WI beats IA today: The WI/MN winner wins the West
If IA beats WI today (3 teams at 5-2), things get messier:
A. IA beats NE, so 2 teams tied at 6-2 – either MN (if they beat WI) or IA wins the West
B. NE beats IA, WI/MN winner wins the West.
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And the afternoon games were pretty big, too.
WI beat IA to set up the MN game for the West title.
Also, UMD won at MI so MI has to beat OSU next week to make a bowl game.
Meanwhile, FSU won on a late FG and AR is whipping #8 MS. Also, ND trails UL by 3 (important for the Orange Bowl).
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Several top schools struggling early today:
#1 AL 10, WCU 7 after 1 qtr
#3 FSU 17, BC 10 at half
AR 17, #8 MS 0 halfway through the 2nd quarter
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Congratulations to Michigan State Women’s Cross Country for being the first BIG school to win an NCAA title for this calendar year. I’m still scanning for full results. Colorado won the Men’s title.
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Iowa State women finished second.
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http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/11/23/win-the-game-career-maker-for-harvard-players/4RbqEcV8SbYX9lWoOrhpZM/story.html
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Mizzou just won a share of their 5th divisional championship trophy in 8 years.
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IU: SEC East champs.
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Pretty sure that’s not how that works.
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Richard – not my fight, but under you reasoning, the B1G East champ Va Tech just lost to Wake Forest.
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The ACC is a mess this year outside of FSU. Half the conference is 5-6 or 6-5 right now including 5 of 7 in the Coastal.
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Looks like you had some trouble with Indiana this week too.
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Congrats, Alan! Your team looks poised to win a divisional title this year (though, granted, TCU might pip you).
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Richard – I’ll take LSU or TCU against VA Tech in the B1G CCG.
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SEC Conference records over the last two seasons combined. Regular season games only:
Alabama 13-2
Mizzou 13-2
Auburn 11-4
Georgia 11-5
Mississippi State 9-6
South Carolina 9-7
LSU 8-7
TAMU 7-8
Ole Miss 7-8
Florida 7-9
Tennessee 4-11
Vanderbilt 4-11
Arkansas 2-13
Kentucky 2-14
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Looks like Missouri finally found a conference it could win in. Last 11 years in Big 12 was 47-42 (63-66 for all 16). A&M was 41-48 over the same time frame. Both have been doing better primarily with their Big 12 recruits.
Of course the bottom 5 (#10-#14) have been on Missouri’s schedule every year + #4, #6 and #8. They’ve been getting as much luck with the schedule as Alabama has in recent years.
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Mizzou won the north 3 times in the last 5 years there, just couldn’t get past Oklahoma.
Might see the same kind of thing in the SEC, except with Auburn and Bama instead of OU. We’ll see.
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To get to Alabama (or MSU) Mizzou first needs to get past Arkansas. 10 days ago I thought this would be a walkover with Arkansas’ 17 game SEC losing streak. After the last 2 games, it looks like a challenge.
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Yeah, I’d say it’s 50/50.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11919190/brady-hoke-future-michigan-wolverines-football-coach-determined-interim-ad-jim-hackett
The interim AD gets to fire Brady Hoke next week.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
AL passes FSU for #1. 3-7 stayed the same. #8 MS dropped to 19, so #9-17 all basically moved up one (UCLA passed KSU for #10, too).
7. OSU
8. MSU
14. WI
22. MN
27. NE
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http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP poll:
Baylor too #5 from TCU. #8 MS dropped to 18, letting others slide up one. UCLA passed MSU for #9 and AZ jumped 3 spots to #12.
7. OSU
10. MSU
14. WI
22. MN
28. NE
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OOC record vs. FBS:
SEC 34-3 (that’s why the computers all like them)
Pac 12 22-5
B1G 31-14
Big 12 15-7
ACC 30-20
MWC 17-24
CUSA 17-26
AACK! 8-28
MAC 8-31
SB 4-29
Ind 19-18
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Not that it matters any more since the BTN is now available in the New York area, but for people wondering whether the B1G could ever capture the New York market, Michigan played in Brooklyn tonight (beating Oregon 70-63) in front of a sizable Michigan contingent. Will be interesting to see the crowd break down tomorrow night when Michigan faces Villanova.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/21
CFP rankings:
The top 7 are unchanged, MS dropped 11 spots to #19. MN up 7 spots, AZ up 4.
1. AL
2. OR
3. FSU
4. MS St
5. TCU
6. OSU
7. Baylor
8. UCLA
9. UGA
10. MSU
14. WI
18. MN
23. Boise
24. Marshall
If Boise wins the MWC, they’d likely get the G5 spot over undefeated Marshall.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/21
If the season ended today:
12/31
12:30 Peach = 9 UGA vs 7 Baylor
4:00 Fiesta = 23 Boise vs 8 UCLA
8:00 Orange = 16 GT vs 10 MSU
1/1
12:30 Cotton = 5 TCU vs 6 OSU
5:00 Rose = 2 OR vs 3 FSU
8:30 Sugar = 1 AL vs No. 4 MS St
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Frank, what about G5 and Basketball conference realignment?
The rumor which seems the strongest is that UAB might drop football after 2016 and move sports to the A-10. That is bound to have a ripple effect beyond C-USA into some other G5 conferences, especially the SBC. I am thinking we might see some realignment not from expansion, but from collapse of one or two or three programs and consolidation of the survivors.
Is something like that looming?
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UAB would be on somewhat of an island from the rest of the A10. Perhaps Florida Gulf Coast U. (one of the few deep south midmajors w/o a nascent football program) comes in with them.
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The A-10 is use to islands. SLU is still a member and UNCC was a member as well back when they didn’t have any schools in VA.
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SI is reporting that UAB fired the AD and will announce Thursday that they are dropping Football. http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/30/alabama-birmingham-shuts-down-football-program-fires-athletic-director
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So we have major G5 realignment news.
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http://www.bcsn.tv/news_article/show/451258?referrer_id=878183
A look at how OSU has changed academically in the past 20 years in comparison to U of M, and its impact on the field.
Ohio State’s incoming class averaged a 28.8 on the ACT — up from 22.8 in 1995 and 25.8 in 2005 — while 61 percent of the freshmen graduated in the top 10 percent of their high school class.
Freshmen at Michigan, which is rated by U.S. News and World Report as the country’s fourth-best public college, averaged a 30 on the entrance exam.
Different academic solar systems?
“Not anymore,” Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith said.
…
Though Ohio State has endured some criticism as the school’s out-of-state student population soars — the percentage of incoming non-Ohio natives more than doubled from 13.5 in 2005 to 30.9 this year — it is Ohio’s new most selective public university.
OSU’s main campus, ranked the nation’s 16th-best public college by U.S. News and World Report, admitted 55.3 percent of applicants last year while Miami (Ohio), billed along with Michigan as one of the eight original “Public Ivies” in the 1980s, had an acceptance rate of 66.7 percent. (Incoming freshmen at Miami averaged a 28 on the ACT.) Michigan accepted 32.2 percent of applicants.
…
So is football coach Urban Meyer, who, as a graduate assistant at Ohio State in 1986 and 1987, remembers the chasm in the rivals’ academic status sometimes being used against OSU in recruiting.
“You never hear that anymore,” he said.
Meyer calls the school’s growing reputation a “big topic of conversation” with high school prospects and their parents.
…
Like at other major-conference schools, athletes at Ohio State are clearly granted leeway in admissions.
Data obtained via an open-records request shows athletes in OSU’s 36 varsity sports averaged a score of 24.9 on the ACT and 1108 on the SAT (non-athletes averaged a 1276). Football players averaged a 21.4 — the national average among all test-takers is a 21.0 — while averages in other sports ranged from an 18.9 (men’s hockey) to a 29.6 (women’s fencing). Close behind were women’s crew (29.9), men’s gymnastics (28.8), and men’s and women’s rifle and women’s cross country (28.7). Men’s basketball players averaged a 20.3.
A similar dilemma confronts Michigan, where, earlier this month, new president Mark Schlissel said the university went too far in bending its admissions standards for athletes.
“We admit students who aren’t as qualified,” Schlissel said, according to the Michigan Daily. “And it’s probably the kids that we admit that can’t, honestly, even with lots of help, do the amount of work and the quality of work it takes to make progression from year to year.”
Michigan declined a request for the test scores of its athletes. An athletic department spokesman did not respond to a request seeking comment from interim athletic director Jim Hackett or another department official.
Smith stressed that Ohio State admits only athletes he believes can — with aid from an academic support staff paid $2.7 million per year — succeed in the classroom.
“We red color-code our guys in the [recruiting] war room, as far as you can only take a couple guys where you’ve got to be very cautious,” Meyer said. “That was much different than 25 years ago when I was here before. You’ve got to be very cautious about who you’e taking at this place.”
…
I’ve always felt our mission is very similar to building an orchestra,” Gee said. “You build it one oboe, one violin at the time, and you get people with very particular talents, but in the end, you have to have an orchestra. And the university’s orchestra can’t be good without the oboe players who sometimes don’t perform as well on the SATs but are brilliant oboe players. On the other hand, the trumpet players are always very, very handy and smart.
“That’s the way I think about athletics. No. 1, we want to make sure we admit students only if we believe they can graduate. That has to be the polar star. Then, we have to think very seriously about how we build a university in which people with many different kinds of talents can flourish and contribute but not all of them might have the same talents.”
Could Ohio State’s orchestra ever fully catch up to its rival symphony?
Probably not. With more than a century’s head start as one of the world’s premier institutions, Michigan is still Michigan. It is the school that prompted former President John F. Kennedy, a Harvard graduate, to call his alma mater the “Michigan of the East.” And, it is the place with a $9.7 billion endowment surpassed only by five universities: Harvard, Yale, Stanford, MIT, and Princeton.
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A little history on The Game:
110 total games (official record – 2010 OSU win vacated)
Annual since 1918
End of the season since 1934
MI leads 58-46-6
Stassen’s database only counts 1904 and 1918-now (does not vacate the 2010 win in head to head results page)
97 total games
MI leads 47-46-4
B10 play (started in 1918)
95 total games
MI leads 46-45-4
Since various years:
Post-WWII: OSU 34-32-3
Last 50 years: OSU 25-23-2
MI went 13-0-2 in the first 15 meetings.
OSU’s first win came in 1919. OSU also won in 1920 and 1921. The run of success inspired OSU to build Ohio Stadium with a capacity of 66,210 for 1922 (construction started before the 1921 season). OSU promptly lost to MI 6 times in a row in 1922-1927.
Recent history:
John Cooper era (1988-2000): MI 10-2-1 (1-4 when ranked higher in the AP poll)
Post-Cooper era (2001-2013): OSU 11-2
Famous Games
1950 – the Snow Bowl
The game was played in one of the worst blizzards in Columbus history. OSU was given the option of cancelling the game, and thus winning the B10 by default, but refused. There were 45 punts, often on 1st down. MI won 9-3 despite 0 first downs and 0 completed passes, scoring on 2 blocked punts, to win the Rose Bowl berth.
1968 – Woody goes for 2
Up 50-14, Woody went for 2 after the last TD. When asked after the game why he did it, he famously said, “Because I couldn’t go for three.”
1969-1978 – the 10-year war
Bo took over MI in 1969, leaving Miami (OH) after being an assistant under Woody for years. OSU was the reigning national champ and on a 22-game winning streak, but MI upset them 24-12 thanks to 6 interceptions. This kicked off an era of both sides having great teams and elevated The Game to it’s national standing. Between 1970 and 1975, 4 times both teams were in the AP top 5. MI was undefeated all 6 of those years but only won once. Because the B10 only allowed the Rose Bowl, MI had 10-win teams that didn’t go bowling in 1972-4.
Woody was fired after 1978, with the War ending up 5-4-1 in favor of MI.
1973 – the Vote
Both teams entered The Game undefeated and the game was a 10-10 tie at MI. The B10 ADs had to vote to decide who goes to the Rose Bowl (the old rule of no repeat trips to the Rose ended after 1971). OSU won the vote, in part because MI’s QB broke his leg during the game, and MI has been upset ever since (they thought they had more votes because so many ADs had MI ties). The B10 only allowed 1 bowl team, so MI had to stay home. Bo was angry about it until the day he died.
2001 – the Promise
Soon after being hired, Jim Tressel appeared at halftime of a MBB game. He said “I can assure you that you will be proud of our young people, in the classroom, in the community, and most especially in 310 days in Ann Arbor, Michigan on the football field.” OSU upset MI 26-20 for their first win in Ann Arbor in 14 years.
2006 – Game of the Century
It was #1 vs #2 for the first time ever in the series, and the game lived up to it. Bo died the day before and got a video tribute and a moment of silence. raising the emotions even higher. OSU won 42-39 at home on their way to the national title, with the game ending under the lights as this was the only 3:30 kickoff in the series (all others before 3pm, all but 4 before 1:30pm). 21.8M viewers watched it (the most since 1993 for CFB regular season games), and it was the first 3-game winning streak in the series for OSU in 43 years. Just after The Game, the lottery numbers were 4-2-3-9 with a lot of winners (over $2M paid out with a max win of $5000).
Coaching records (5 or more games):
Tressel, OSU, 2001-2010 = 9-1 (officially 8-1)
Yost, MI, 1901-1923, 1925-6 = 16-3-1
Crisler, MI, 1938-1947 = 7-2-1
Moeller, MI, 1990-4 = 3-1-1
Hayes, OSU, 1951-1978 = 16-11-1
Schmidt, OSU, 1934-1940 = 4-3
Bruce, OSU, 1979-1987 = 5-4
Schembechler, MI, 1969-1989 = 11-9-1
Oosterbaan, MI, 1948-1958 = 5-5-1
Carr, MI, 1995-2007 = 6-7
Willaman, OSU, 1929-1933 = 2-3
Wilce, OSU, 1918-1928 = 4-7
Kipke, MI, 1929-1937 = 3-6
Elliott, MI, 1959-1968 = 3-7
Cooper, OSU, 1988-2000 = 2-10-1
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Game of the Century – not even close & the mass media will correct this overstatement in due time. After this game, OSU got smoked by Florida – the snails versus road runners game. Michigan got whipped by USC. Last year’s Iron Bowl will in due time be recognized as the best rivalry game since 2000 & perhaps all time. Heck, I’d put this game first, then the Iron Bowls in 2009 & 2010 over OSU-MI 2006 any day. I’d even put last year’s “The Game” over 2006. We had a nice brawl and Michigan had no business keeping that game close – 2 point conversion goes through, OSU has one of the most humiliating losses – ever – on its resume. No BCS game.
The Iron Bowl’s current 5 year run is simply putting “The Game” a distant second & everyone outside Ann Arbor & Columbus, and yesteryear BIG fans clinging to the “big two” knows it. The winner of Mi-OSU will likely never produce 4 consecutive national champions, 5 consecutive NCs If Bama wins today, they may make it 6 consecutive Iron Bowl winners in the NC.
I woke up in 2006 and realized the BIG, despite being a long-time fan, is exceptionally overrated because OSU and Mi have dominated the conference much of the time since 70 and both have too often flopped in post-season play. But Michigan gets credit for at least winning games against the SEC – something OSU still can’t do unless NCAA violations are running their course.
I sure hope this rivalry means something again, national stage, but the Maize and Blue is teetering on further disaster right now while RRod is soaking up the sun in Az. Btw, RRod wouldn’t be the coach he is right now if not for the termination in Ann Arbor. The short term memory Internet posters seem to forget that RRoad had 3 very average seasons at Michigan and his final bowl game was a massive blowout loss to Miss State. I mean Mi got destroyed in that game.
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Quit drinking & Go to bed
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Smoking as well : ). Play me some trumpet Mr. Baker. Truth hurts. So tired of OSU being the perception marker for the BIG – it hasn’t helped the conference.
Meanwhile Michigan, who has no business scoring, has already hit the 14 mark on the invincible Bucks, who needed a nice screw job in Happy Valley. How did they do against VT, at home?
I’m sure the Bucks will pull today’s game off, but this is not the peaking team we thought after a dominant win at MSU. I heard nothing but excuses related to TOs, which are part of the game, in their hardly convincing win at Minnesota. Furthermore, hardly any credit to Minnesota for playing a more physical game – which further exposed the Bucks.
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Some distorted guitar instead:
http://www.forbisthemighty.com/acidlogic/mm_warehouse.htm
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An alternative “Michigan Man” perspective:
http://www.lib.umich.edu/faculty-memoir/node/281
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gfunk,
“Game of the Century – not even close & the mass media will correct this overstatement in due time.”
Don’t blame me, the media called it that.
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I don’t remember that “game of the century” moniker. It didn’t get hyped the way Texas-Arkansas in 1969 and Nebraska-OU in 1971 did.
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Links:
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/recap?gameId=263220194
The “Game of the Century,” the first 1 vs. 2 matchup in this storied rivalry, was played a day after the death of feisty former Michigan coach Bo Schembechler.
http://scarletandgame.com/2014/11/25/ohio-state-vs-michigan-flashback-11182006-game-century/
Ohio State vs. Michigan Flashback: 11/18/2006 “Game of the Century”
In the first #1 vs. #2 matchup, dubbed the “Game of the Century”, …
DISC 3 November 18, 2006
Columbus, OH
Ohio State 42 ∙ Michigan 39
Billed the “Game of the Century,” this was the first time #1 Ohio State and #2 Michigan met as the top two ranked teams in this storied rivalry
http://www.csnchicago.com/big-ten/michigan-struggling-heading-game-vs-ohio-state
It was the 2006 contest that was billed as “The Game of the Century,” when No. 1 Ohio State topped No. 2 Michigan by three points to win the Big Ten title and advance to the national championship game.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6502122
Biggest college football game ever. Well, that’s what one newspaper headline says. We’re talking about number one ranked Ohio State versus number two University of Michigan hitting the gridiron tomorrow. New York Times sports columnist William C. Rhoden, who keeps his eye on the ball for NEWS & NOTES, will be there for the big game. But first, he spoke with NPR’s Tony Cox.
TONY COX: Well, you know, they’re calling it the game of the century, …
Mr. WILLIAM RHODEN (Columnist, The New York Times): Until the next game. Until Ohio State or Michigan plays Rutgers.
A little clairvoyance from Bill Rhoden?
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FWIW from Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_of_the_Century_(college_football)
If I had to choose, it would be 2006 Texas vs. USC.
It was also the last TV broadcast of Keith Jackson.
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BTW that bite by Luis Suarez during the World Cup was (probably) no “accident”:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/soccer-dirty-tackle/edinson-cavani-giorgio-chiellini-throw-elbows-pull-hair-002106079–sow.html
(Suarez and Cavani are team-mates on the Uruguay National Team.)
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gfunk,
“Michigan got whipped by USC.”
Yeah, I remember that game quite well. At that time, I was in Thailand before starting my next assignment (which took me to Abeokuta, Nigeria – I’m a Hydraulic Engineer by profession). And I was lucky to find a hotel in Bangkok that had the game on TV.
Sadly, it was another disappointing Rose Bowl (as a teenager I was a Ricky Leach fan). So, I started flipping through the channels when I discovered a broadcast of the 2006/07 Ashes, one of the world’s great sporting rivalries. Not only that, but it was a 5-0 whitewashing by an Australian team, which included the great spinner Shane Warne, and the great pace bowler Glenn McGrath, both of whom would retire after the series. How fortunate to discover such sporting legends!
So, as Dale Carnegie would say: “when fate gives you a lemon, make lemonade”. And as they like to say in Thailand: “up to you”.
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Ha. I was actually in Saigon, Vietnam watching that game at an expat bar. Hey, they didn’t look as humiliated as OSU. But there was a very late TD by Michigan, maybe Breaston, and they were also favored. That didn’t sit well with Carrol.
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Old Man Ufer says:
Simplicity, Sincerity & Enthusiasm
Forza Blue!
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The following is from a letter written to WJR Radio Station, December 20, 1977:
Dear Mr Ufer, I sincerely hope this letter reaches you as I am writing it to congratulate you for what I feel is a job extremely well done: your broadcasting of the University of Michigan football games. I’ve recently had the pleasure to hear the album of recorded excerpts from your play-by-play broadcasts over the last several years, and even recorded it for the benefit of my friends here in Columbus. Being an OSU graduate and a devout fan of the university’s athletic teams and coaches, your harsh criticisms and attacks on Coach Woody Hayes upset me somewhat. However I’ve become used to hearing and reading such points of you and attribute them in part to the fact that very few people recognize or understand the total dedication with which Coach Hayes approaches his job, and to this his love and support of the athletes who play on his football team and the university itself, and I think it offers an explanation if not an excuse for some of his more radical actions and reactions. But this is a digression from the point of this letter. I have for some time considered myself a critic of play-by-play announcers of various sports. Granted I’ve considered some broadcasters who are relatively obscure in the profession to be very good and dislike the performances of some of the household names with six figure network salaries. My observance encompasses both national figures and local ones from many areas and I’ve come to two distinct conclusions. First I enjoy and admire a partial broadcaster, even a cheerleader, if I feel he is sincere and accurate in his reporting, and does not hesitate to give credit to the people on the wrong sideline if such praise is justified. And second I think you personify this type of reporter and I honestly envy the University of Michigan for having you as part of its football tradition. Perhaps at thirty I am mellowing a little bit. Perhaps I have grown more tired than I realize of listening to local announcers describe an Ohio State football game, in my opinion the greatest spectacle in all of sport, with all the excitement and enthusiasm of a greyhound trip to Pittsburgh. Whatever the reason I can actually thrill to the emotional ecstasy in your voice when Michigan makes a big play, yes, some times even against Ohio State. And sympathize with the emotional disaster you verbalize at times such as the heart rendering missed field goals at Purdue in 1976 and down here in 1974. Michigan football must mean a very great deal to you for you to be able to get it across to an anti-Michigan man like me. I would surrender almost anything short of a victory over the Blue and Maize to have Bob Ufer broadcasting Ohio State football. Mr Ufer, I wish you well in the continuation of your career. You do more than a fitting justice to the excitement and spectacle of college football and to its greatest game Ohio State Michigan. And your love for your subject in your work is coming through loud and clear. Although I would be quite happy if you never again have what must be the supreme pleasure of reporting a Michigan victory over Ohio State, I must confess one thing. My very next rendition of “We don’t give a damn for the whole state of Michigan, and everyone thereafter” have to include the parenthetical line “except for Bob Ufer”. Thank you and good luck.
(Source: Bob Ufer Tribute, Produced by Mike Whorf, 10.26.1981)
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Well, the NCAA can relax. No undefeated team will be left out of the playoff as Marshall lost to WKU (67-66 in OT on a 2-pt conversion). That gives Boise a huge edge for the G5 bowl slot, too.
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You mean the CFP organization. The NCAA merely allows it under their restructured rules.
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No, I meant the NCAA. They’re the ones that would catch the heat if 13-0 Marshall was left out for allowing such a biased playoff system. People already expected the CFP to screw the G5.
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Why? What can the ncaa do to alter the CFP? Short of taking control/dictating participants (and thereby causing the P5 to actually leave) I can’t see anything, or the lessers would have already asserted themselves.
Why should the ncaa care about what uninformed opinion thinks they control? Is it likely to lower their public perception?
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ccrider55,
“Why?”
Because most fans are uninformed and blame the NCAA for everything in CFB.
“What can the ncaa do to alter the CFP?”
Start an official NCAA championship like they do in all the other sports.
“Short of taking control/dictating participants (and thereby causing the P5 to actually leave) I can’t see anything, or the lessers would have already asserted themselves.”
Fans don’t care about excuses from the NCAA for why they can’t/don’t do something.
“Why should the ncaa care about what uninformed opinion thinks they control?”
Why do they ever care? Angry people can lead to lawsuits and congressional interference.
“Is it likely to lower their public perception?”
Yes.
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The NCAA could only start a football championship with the permission of the big conferences. Otherwise they’d just withdraw and have their own association.
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“Start an official NCAA championship like they do in all the other sports.”
What ag said. The ncaa has extracted as much as they can from the P5.
That said, allowing a non conference champ and excluding other champs is not a playoff. Without that requirement this is just a poll – one that wrecks traditional bowls.
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“Is it likely to lower their public perception?”
Yes”
Probably not with the informed. And I don’t think there’s any lower they can be regarded by the uninformed.
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ccrider55,
“Probably not with the informed.”
That’s great. What about with the other 90%?
“And I don’t think there’s any lower they can be regarded by the uninformed.”
There’s always lower.
I’m not disagreeing with you guys that there is nothing plausible the NCAA can do. I’m just saying most of the public doesn’t care to find out what’s actually plausible.
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And the chaos begins.
7-5 Stanford whipped #8 UCLA. Since #11 AZ beat #13 ASU, that means RichRod is going to the P12 CCG to face OR.
Meanwhile, #17 MO came back to beat AR and clinch the SEC East.
That takes #8 UCLA and #9 UGA out of the playoff picture and presumably jumps AZ over #10 MSU for now.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jon-solomon/24846237/college-football-regular-season-tv-ratings-havent-been-hurt-by-playoff
How TV ratings are different in 2014 from 2013 (playoff? SECN? matchups?).
Through the first 12 weeks of the season, college football TV ratings were up 7 percent on ABC and down 11 percent on ESPN, according to figures provided by ESPN. Through the first 13 weeks, ratings for SEC games on CBS were down 5 percent, and ratings were up 7 percent on Fox and up 39 percent on Fox Sports 1. (ABC and ESPN did not have updated final ratings from last week at the time of publication.)
…
The vast majority of college football games are on an ESPN-owned network. ESPN’s platforms averaged 1.72 million viewers on 220 telecasts through the first 12 weeks of 2014, compared to 1.86 million on 204 telecasts through the same period in 2013. Without ESPNews, which has the bulk of the additional 16 telecasts and less distribution than other channels, ESPN’s games have averaged 1.89 million viewers in 2014 and 1.97 million in 2013.
ESPN vice president of programming and acquisitions Ilan Ben-Hanan said the reasons for lower ESPN numbers can vary based on the game and could also be due to the launch of the SEC Network, which does not yet have its games rated. SEC teams have regularly appeared on ESPN’s Saturday night broadcast this season.
…
Ben-Hanan points to Nov. 8 as a day that showed the value of the playoff. In the BCS era, No. 1 Mississippi State’s win over Tennessee-Martin and No. 2 Florida State’s win over Virginia that day wouldn’t have moved the needle for postseason implications.
In the playoff era, that day also featured these games that had postseason consequences: No. 12 Baylor vs. No. 15 Oklahoma; No. 9 Arizona State vs. No. 10 Notre Dame; No. 6 TCU vs. No. 7 Kansas State; No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 16 LSU; No. 14 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Michigan State; and No. 4 Oregon vs. No. 17 Utah.
“All day there was something with national relevance,” Ben-Hanan said. “It’s heaven. This is a golden age for college football fans, in my mind.”
…
Across the country, TV executives and commissioners believe there’s more buzz with a playoff. But very few of them see a correlation between the playoff and TV ratings.
SEC executive associate commissioner Mark Womack said the playoff hasn’t had a significant impact on ratings, “but it certainly has not been a negative impact.” CBS’s highest-rated SEC game so far this season is Mississippi State-Alabama with a 6.4 rating. At this time last year, CBS had two games rated higher than that: Alabama-Texas A&M (8.6) and LSU-Alabama (6.9).
CBS ratings were up for this season until a 2.1 rating last week for the Ole Miss-Arkansas game. CBS vice president of programming Dan Weinberg sensed no dramatic impact in viewership based on the playoff.
“The SEC continues to be the highest quality in terms of field of play,” Weinberg said. “That hasn’t changed this year whether the playoff existed or not.”
ACC commissioner John Swofford attributes higher ratings for ACC games more to five games against Notre Dame than playoff interest.
Bowlsby said the playoff has created heightened interest in regular-season games that essentially become elimination games. The ratings for the six playoff games and access bowls “will be extraordinary,” he said.
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott said anecdotally he thinks there’s a connection between the playoff and what he calls “very strong” viewership for Pac-12 games.
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“but it certainly has not been a negative impact.”
Maybe not on viewership.
It’s definately had a negative impact on my enjoyment of the viewing experience. The way we have been constantly drowned in playoff forecasts, implications, “expert” opinions, about various matchups, etc…DURING GAME BROADCASTS! Please, save sports center type of analysis for pre or post game. Or better yet, for their own show.
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But I don’t count. I think the Rose Bowl is for B1G/PAC champs. This years CFP in the stadium to me is no more a Rose Bowl than regular season games played there.
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I hear you.
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ccrider55,
“Maybe not on viewership.
It’s definately had a negative impact on my enjoyment of the viewing experience.”
I’d venture there has been some exchange of viewers, too. The playoff has probably brought in some new fans but has also lost some of the old fans. I’ve certainly watched a lot fewer games this year.
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Agreed
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Big day for the ACC with Clemson and GT winning their rivalries.
Sad for me to see JT Barrett go down with an injury. The CCG will be tough with our 3rd string QB.
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ACC 4-0 vs SEC today.
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Let’s emphasize SEC East, which IU already exposed earlier in the year. The ACC was favored in all but GT-UGA.
This has become an overstated accomplishment.
None of those ACC teams would beat Bama in a playoff game where Saban gets a month to prepare.
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Want to make any more excuses for why those SEC losses don’t count?
If the ACC wins don’t matter because they were favored, then why do the SEC wins matter since they were favored in all but one of them?
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Not excuses, it’s chalk slim. Most often the rankings go beyond perception. If you’re a betting man, you won 3 of 4 bets.
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Rankings are perception…
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SEC 5-6 vs other P5 conferences this year by my count.
AL over WV
AU over KSU
LSU over WI
UGA over Clemson
AR over TT
GT over UGA
IN over MO
Clemson over SC
FSU over UF
OU over TN
UL over UK
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http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/104215/what-we-learned-in-the-sec-week-14-5
Fun little stat. The SEC hasn’t gone 0-4 since 2000 and hasn’t been worse than 2-2 since 2003.
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With the way the games are going, OSU has a decently good chance of getting in to the playoffs if they win the B10 (I am not a believer in FSU, and UO may be upset by the only school that has beaten them recently; and Auburn may win tonight).
However, I’m not sure that I want to see a B10 team get pounded in a high-profile OOC game again.
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We’ll have to see what the committee does. I think they’ll drop OSU after the CCG due to Barrett’s injury. Maybe not if our offense looks really dynamic against WI, but that is unlikely.
I’ll be surprised if we beat WI with our 3rd string QB anyway.
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More chaos.
Upsets so far:
#19 Ole Miss over #4 MS St. – are both in the top 10 now?
NR Stanford over #8 UCLA
#16 GT over #9 UGA – FSU better watch out next week
#1 AL is in a tight game with #15 AU at the half.
Major injuries:
#6 OSU QB (broken ankle)
#7 Baylor QB (concussion)
Will the committee use this injury as an excuse to keep OSU out (assuming they can beat a very tough WI)? Will Petty’s injury cost Baylor against KSU?
Be ready to congratulate the new B10 champ – the team that lost to VT at home or the team that lost at NW.
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CFP prediction:
If AL wins:
1. AL
2. OR
3. FSU
4. TCU
5. OSU
If AU wins:
1. OR
2. FSU
3. AL
4. TCU
5. OSU
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That would be better for the image of the B10, frankly. I do not want to see OSU represent the B10 in the playoffs with their 3rd-string QB.
However, there’s pretty much zero chance that ‘Bama stays in the top 4 if they lose the Iron Bowl
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OSU will get in with an impressive win against Wisky, 10 or more points.
But I have a feeling OSU is getting in & TCU as well because GT is going to upset FSU, well not really, GT is playing great football right now. FSU is out of 9 lives : ).
In reality, Baylor lost nearly as much as OSU & TT is about as bad as Michigan. OSU went up by 21, though Mi fought hard for their last td. TT nearly tied Baylor, it was oh so close.
I think OSU can pull it off and the young man running the wild cat could give OSU a tough 2-headed beast that will confuse Wisky.
Question is: does Wisky suddenly have a passing game? OSU plays a sort of soft zone coverage, which has gotten plenty of criticism, and rightfully so because such won’t do it against uptempo teams & now the qb situation is a wreck. We know Gordon will get his yards against a suspect OSU linebacker corps.
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Richard,
“That would be better for the image of the B10, frankly.”
Probably, yes. We’d get the best of both worlds because we could say we would’ve been in if not for the injury without the risk of getting whipped.
“I do not want to see OSU represent the B10 in the playoffs with their 3rd-string QB.”
At least he’d get a month of practice before then, but I agree in principle.
“However, there’s pretty much zero chance that ‘Bama stays in the top 4 if they lose the Iron Bowl”
We’ll never know, but I think the committee loves the SEC too much to drop AL farther than that.
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I’m going to predict virtually no controversy when the final 4 are announced.
I think Ohio St. will fall w/o their QB. I think Bill Snyder will outcoach Art Briles and knock off Baylor. Alabama, Oregon, FSU and TCU cruise. So it will be Alabama, Oregon, FSU and TCU.
Probably be a lot a screaming about the other 6 as they will load it with SEC teams with more losses than the options.
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Think Georgia Tech is a lock in the Orange Bowl unless they lose, really, really bad to FSU. The G5 slot seems to be Boise’s to lose. Otherwise I think Memphis gets it, but Marshall might manage to be ranked higher.
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For Land Grant Trophy, two decades of heavy lifting and snarky remarks might be at end
http://www.pennlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/11/for_the_land_grant_trophy_two.html
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Pelini is gone. Most schools would never do this with his overall record. I think he could have saved his job if a better slightly better recruiter and certainly a better D coordinator. Ironically, Bo would make a great D coordinator again, hope he stays in the BIG: http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11958376/nebraska-cornhuskers-fire-bo-pelini
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From ESPN’s story:
In fact, no coach in the history of a Power 5 program had been fired for on-field performance after winning as many games in his first seven years.
Pelini was 67-27 (0.713).
Frank Solich was 58-19 (0.753) in his 6 years at NE.
Earle Bruce was 65-19 (0.774) in his first 7 years at OSU before getting fired. He was 81-26 (0.757) when he was fired.
John Cooper was 111-43-4 at OSU (0.715) at OSU before being fired (at least partially for on the field reasons).
In other words, this is ESPN making up a stat that sounds impressive but really isn’t. Especially since seasons have gotten longer recently.
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Mack Brown wasn’t officially fired, but we all know it wasn’t really voluntary. He went 71-19 in his first 7 seasons. Interestingly, he went 71-20 in his next 7 which included 2 trips to the championship game. Last 2 were 17-9.
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Granted, UNL doesn’t have anything close to the recruiting territory of tOSU or UT-Austin.
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It’s weird to see MI, NE and UF all looking for coaches. Especially since USC, UT, OSU and PSU all have fairly new hires.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches Poll:
1. AL
2. OR
3. FSU
4. TCU
5. Baylor
6. OSU
7. MSU
8. AZ
9. KSU
10. MS St
11. WI
12. GT
13. MO
23. NE
25. MN
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Sorry, that’s:
2. FSU
3. OR
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http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. FSU
3. OR
4. TCU
5. Baylor
6. OSU
7. MSU
8. AZ
9. KSU
10. MS St
11. WI
12. GT
14. MO
25. NE
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UAB dropping football after this season.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2014/11/30/uab-to-shut-down-football-program/19702899/?siteID=je6NUbpObpQ-YN_UpK_k1ITdQm7tC1UexQ
Could it be a start of a trend at the lower FBS level?
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I’m all for FBS contraction and a more celebrated and promoted FCS. I think Saban pitched this argument years ago.
There’s just not enough room for more than 80 FBS teams. About 18 teams have earned the distinction of multiple AP NCs, all time, some of these teams will be quite fortunate to ever win one again:
Army, Minnesota & Pitt.
Of the remaining teams, most are Sun Belt teams with excellent recruiting bases in-state or nearby, plus enough tradition and history to be branded “national”.. The colder states are dominated by in-state flagships: Michigan, OSU, PSU or a unique situation – ND. I’d also probably put Tenn outside a Sun Belt state with a solid prep football.
It’s no secret, most NC winners have tremendous in-state talent and resources.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP_National_Championship_Trophy
There should be an effort to encourage more FCS schools, or maybe another division between FCS & FBS.
On the other hand, we could have a real problem with politicians and business types via FBS contraction. For example, who has more upside? Georgia Southern or several FBS schools in colder P5 conferences. Georgia has enough talent to feed 3 major FBS schools.
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Portland (OR) St. fired their coach and the athletic dept has been a mess for years. It’s just speculation, but quite a few think FB may very possibly get axed.
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I’ve been expecting a big contraction of FBS, but it just hasn’t happened.
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To be more specific, scholarship FBS. And actually some non-scholarship FBS programs have started adding scholarships.
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Correction-a contraction of F-C-S. I-A, I-AA was a lot clearer!
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There are non-scholarship FBS programs?
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The service academies.
(Of course the reason they don’t give scholarships is because they don’t charge tuition…)
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See my correction. I meant FCS, the old I-AA.
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It’s sad that the bullies in Tuscaloosa can do this to UAB.
http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/104283/uab-football-program-cant-outrun-past-escape-shadow-of-alabama
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http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/11/28/buffalo-bulls-hire-lance-leipold-head-coach
Great news for Mt. Union. WI-Whitewater’s HC just took the Buffalo job.
For those that don’t follow D-III, MU and WW have been the two kings since 2005. They’ve played each other in the NCG 8 of the past 9 seasons (WW won the last 4 times they played), and MU was in the 9th NCG, too. MU has been in 17 of the past 21 NCGs with 11 titles (6 in a row). The only other team with more than 5 title game appearances is Ithaca, and they haven’t gone since 1991.
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The coaching changes this off-season will be interesting. Some solid DCs will be on the market (Hoke, Muschamp, Pelini, etc) and several schools just fired their DC. You also have the usual OCs and DCs looking to move up.
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Hoke has never been a DC before. He was an assistant head coach and a defensive line coach. He is unlikely to be anyone defensive coordinator ever.
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Is Pelini really going to be a coordinator next year? Shouldn’t he be the top choice of Kansas for their head coaching job? And if KU or another Power 5 school doesn’t offer, he might get a head coaching job at a mid-major (say, Colorado State, if their coach gets hired away), where he can be employed while waiting for the next big school to offer him.
His record isn’t good enough to get him hired by the Florida or Michigan type openings, but there are many schools that would be happy to have a head coach with his record.
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Is Pelini really going to be a coordinator next year?
IMO – he’ll be a DC in the NFL next year.
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m(Ag),
“Is Pelini really going to be a coordinator next year?”
I have no idea. It’s not unheard of for a HC to become a coordinator for a year while hunting a new job.
“Shouldn’t he be the top choice of Kansas for their head coaching job?”
I’d think they might want an up and comer rather than a guy who plans to leave after a year.
“And if KU or another Power 5 school doesn’t offer, he might get a head coaching job at a mid-major (say, Colorado State, if their coach gets hired away), where he can be employed while waiting for the next big school to offer him.”
Many of the guys that do that are older and don’t plan to ever get a big job again. If he just wants a 1 year gig, I think DC is a better choice because he wouldn’t lie to as many recruits about his future plans.
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Question:
Say
Missouri beats Alabama
Wisconsin beats tOSU
Oregon beats Arizona
FSU beats GATech
KSU beats Baylor
TCU beats Iowa State
Who gets into the playoffs?
for sure:
Oregon
FSU
TCU
But who is #4?
Wisconsin?
Missouri?
KSU?
Mississippi State?
I would think Mizzou would have as good of an argument as anyone, even with the Indiana loss. After all, Wisconsin lost to Northwestern. And a win over Alabama would be pretty impressive.
That said, I doubt Missouri beats Alabama. I’d give them about a 25% chance. And KSU probably won’t beat Baylor, although who knows?
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I think Alabama still gets in under that scenario. Missouri’s best win so far is A&M. Missouri squeaked by while Bama won 59-0. Bama did a little better vs. TN and Mizzou did a little better vs. FL (the other common opponents). Alabama would have the same record with a vastly stronger schedule. The committee loves the Alabama schools and will override W/L, H2H and conference championships.
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that may be your stupidest post ever.
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The above is one of your typical delusional posts. If Missouri somehow beats Alabama (unless its a total blowout), Alabama will still be ahead in all 3 polls.
It may not be “fair,” but its clear how they all think and in what high regard Alabama is held regardless of what they do on the field. If a 2 loss team gets in the playoffs, it will be Alabama.
The SEC has the highest 1, 3 and 4 loss teams. Missouri is the #7 two loss team and is ranked behind three 3 loss teams and ahead of only Boise, Colorado St. and NIU among 2 loss teams. They will jump if they beat Alabama, but only so much.
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The board will probably find this article fun:
https://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11964070/the-sec-no-longer-claim-best-conference-college-football
The start of the article by Ivan Maisel:
It’s been fun, SEC, really fun — seven consecutive national championships, your own network, the undying enmity of the rest of the country. Really, it’s been great. But as you limp into the SEC championship game on Saturday, with No. 1 Alabama playing — ta-da! — No. 17 Missouri, I think it’s time to sit down and have a little talk.
We still like you. You still put on a great show every week. What the Iron Bowl lacked in, oh, I don’t know, defense on Saturday night, it more than made up for in the pageantry and emotion that only a great college football rivalry can produce.
But let’s be honest. You’re not what you have been. You’re not all that. You’re not even all that good. And now that the season is concluding, and we can step back and gain the perspective that we lose in the Saturday-to-Saturday frenzy of the regular season, maybe we can figure out how the rest of us got hornswoggled into thinking you hadn’t lost a step.
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bullet – The SEC East is down but the seven SEC West teams were 10-4 against the SEC East and undefeated against the rest of college football.
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Alan from Baton Rouge,
“bullet – The SEC East is down but the seven SEC West teams were 10-4 against the SEC East and undefeated against the rest of college football.”
Did you read the whole article? It goes on to say what many of us have said for a while – the SEC is good, it’s just not as great as it’s been made out to be this year.
Picking up after bullet’s excerpt:
For the first time in four seasons, the SEC won’t have four 11-win teams. It very easily could have only one. Alabama is 11-1. Missouri and Mississippi State are 10-2.
The best running backs in the FBS play in the Big Ten. The best quarterbacks are in the Pac-12. So are the best defensive linemen. The ACC skunked you 4-0 this past Saturday. The Big 12 is the only conference with a chance of putting two teams in the playoff.
Speaking of which, the SEC is one Mizzou upset of the Crimson Tide away from sitting at home and watching the inaugural College Football Playoff go on without a member in it. It’s not a question of underestimating the Tigers, which most of us have turned into an art form. But no team that lost at home to Indiana (4-8) and to Georgia by a score of 34-0 is going to play for the national championship.
(That said, let’s get it out of the way now. Missouri will win the 2015 SEC East. Fool me twice, shame on me.)
We should have seen this coming. In fact, we did. The SEC lost 61 underclassmen to the NFL draft in the past two springs. Ole Miss senior Bo Wallace opened the season as the only league quarterback with more than a year of starting experience.
And then the season began, and every SEC West team except for Arkansas started winning, and we left all of that cold data behind to chase hot teams.
Texas A&M beat No. 9 South Carolina, so the Aggies must be a national power.
Mississippi State beat Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn, top-10 teams all, so the Bulldogs must be a national power.
Ole Miss beat Alabama, so the Rebels must be playoff-caliber.
We had company. Remember the College Football Playoff selection committee’s first ranking? They placed three SEC West teams in the top four, and four in the top six.
Somewhere in all of that excitement sat the cold realization that once the SEC West teams started playing one another, maybe they wouldn’t stay undefeated. Maybe they wouldn’t stay highly ranked. Maybe they would begin to lose because they were no longer playing the rent-a-victims that SEC teams schedule in September in order to avoid playing nonconference road games.
All we know is that when the season concluded, that Murderers’ Row of SEC teams that Mississippi State beat to climb into America’s hearts failed to finish with a winning record in conference play. All three of them.
The league spent the season beating up one another. Parity can be a wonderful thing. The NFL wouldn’t exist without it. But parity is another word for pretty good, and pretty good is a saddle that hasn’t weighed the SEC down in a while.
Even when the SEC’s power didn’t extend through the league, the teams at the top dominated to the point that they could carry the league’s brand. Think of Florida and Alabama in 2009. When the Gators and the Tide went into the SEC championship game ranked 1-2, no one noticed that only one other team in the league finished above .500 in conference play (LSU at 5-3). Alabama rolled over Florida 32-13 before doing the same to Texas 37-21 in the BCS national title game.
This Alabama team may be No. 1, but as we said Saturday night, it is flawed. This Alabama team would be what, a 10-point underdog to the team of five years ago?
Yes, the Crimson Tide, as we stand on the cusp of season’s end, is one of the four best teams in the nation. No one out there is without flaws, except perhaps Oregon, which discovered the art of defense as it raced down the homestretch.
But that’s just the point, isn’t it? If we say Alabama is no different than the other flawed contenders, we are saying that SEC exceptionalism is as obsolete as the single-wing offense.
And the writer is from Alabama.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/104327/power-rankings-big-12-not-sec-is-no-1
For the first time in years, the SEC has been knocked off its perch as the top conference in the nation in ESPN Stats & Information’s Conference Power Rankings.
…
The SEC is 5-6 (.455 win percentage) in nonconference games against other Power 5 opponents, which ranks third among Power 5 conferences.
The race for No. 1, however, is basically a tie between the Big 12 and SEC.
1. B12 – 90.3
2. SEC – 90.2
3. P12 – 83.2
4. B10 – 69.6
5. ACC – 69.0
6. MWC – 22.3
7. AAC – 21.7
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Look at it this way:
The SEC West was 0-4 against the only SEC East teams with more than 6 wins.
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As for the rest, Maisel’s point is that there isn’t a lot of evidence. The SEC West may have won all 28 they played out of conference. However, that included 7 rent a win FCS teams and 11 rent a win G5 FBS teams with no more than 6 wins and 1 win for Arkansas in Dallas vs. 4-8 Texas Tech. The other 9 wins included Rice, Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, NIU and Memphis at home in buy games, Boise essentially at home and 3 good wins-10-2 Wisconsin essentially at home (LSU in Houston), at 7-5 WVU (Alabama) and at 9-2 KSU (Auburn).
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The Big 12 doesn’t really mean “One True Champion” even though that their slogan. If TCU and Baylor both win out, they will be co-champs. I think other posters on FTT have previously discussed tie-breakers that don’t exist, according to Bowlsby.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11964184/big-12-present-tcu-baylor-co-champions
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The tiebreakers exist, but they’re for determining a representative for the B12’s contracted bowl slot in the big bowls if the champ doesn’t make the playoff.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/college-football-playoff-update-7-teams-competing-for-4-positions/
538.com’s projection for the CFP.
This week (% chance of making the top 4):
1. AL (100%)
2. OR (100%)
3. FSU (100%)
4. TCU (93%)
5. OSU (6%)
6. Baylor (1%)
7. AZ (0%)
8. MSU (0%)
9. MS St (0%)
10. KSU (0%)
WI is very close to KSU, with GT just behind them.
Final poll (% chance of making the playoff):
1. AL (94%)
2. OR (82%)
3. FSU (70%)
4. TCU (80%)
5. OSU (39%)
6. Baylor (23%)
7. MSU (1%)
8. MS St (1%)
9. AZ (6%)
10. WI (1%)
11. GT (1%)
12. KSU (1%)
Nobody else has 0.5% (I rounded up).
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Just a reminder:
AP preseason top 5:
1. FSU
2. AL
3. OR
4. OU
5. OSU
Others of note:
TCU – NR
Baylor – 10
MSU – 8
AZ – NR
WI – 14
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Results of Monday’s ACC/Big Ten Challenge:
Rutgers 69-64 Clemson
Nebraska 70-65 Florida State
Indiana, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Purdue and Ohio State play on Tuesday.
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It is in fact college basketball season, for me, when the BIG-ACC Challenge starts. I also can’t wait for the Big East-BIG challenge (next year) as more than half the schools in the Big East are in a BIG state now – this was a genius idea in my opinion. Btw, I do watch plenty of the pre-season tourneys before this event.
I don’t know what it is, but I’ve always liked college basketball 100x more than college football.
The thing that always disappoints me about this challenge are the the tiny crowds, mostly ACC schools. But the challenge is underrated even with small crowds & new ACC members Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse bring nice crowds – ND as well. I have a feeling the Lville-OSU game will be the best of the challenge. I’d put the UVa-Md game up there, but not with Wells out. Of course the Wisky-Duke game is big too.
How many FF teams has this challenge produced – actual membership numbers? Has to be over 20 & I wouldn’t be surprised if the BIG has more FF appearances than the ACC during this challenge. But the BIG, as most of us know, just can’t produce a super talented, media favorite type-team that usually wins it. Last year, man Michigan State, it was theirs, but not enough people realize that Appling wasn’t healthy enough – never the same after UNC game – injury. Yet for some reason the national media propped him as healthy because of the BIG Tourney run.
As for NCs out of the Challenge, easier to count: 6 by my math, but only one from the BIG.
MSU 2000
Duke 2001, 2010
Md 2002
UNC 2005, 2009
Frank I’m looking forward to the Illinois game, I was impressed by the Baylor win. But, I’m still worried about the Illini front court. Baylor is long and bigger, but that turkey coach always forgets discipline with his teams.
My second favorite BIG team, Minny, is getting better, but laid an egg against St. Johns. It was a game they should have won, blew a nice lead – thus no opportunity to play Gonzanga, whom they were better matched to play than St. Johns. It was a rough day leading up to the St. John’s game – the freshman who evidently beat his girlfriend up and badly.
PS Yes the ACC won the first 10, but 5 of 10 were by one game, just as 2 of the BIG’s were by 1 game. So 7 of the first 14 were decided by a game.
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B10 6-2 in the Challenge so far.
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The Big Ten wins in the men’s challenge, 8-6, while in the women’s challenge a 7-7 tie.
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The Big 12 is going to have to expand to 12 members, if Ohio State beats Wisconsin handily then I don’t see how you keep them out of the College Football Playoff. I think K-State will beat Baylor and TCU should beat Iowa State rather easily, but I think if K-State beat Baylor it will actually hurt TCU not help them.
Expect the other Big 12 members not named Oklahoma or Texas to be upset and push for Conference Championship Game for the added revenue and to fix these tie-breakers and make sure they get into the CFB Playoff, the committee showed it favors the Big 12 more than the Big Ten in the regular season.
As for the 2 new members, I would go with Cincinnati & Memphis as they are showing promise in all 3 revenue sports in Football, Men’s & Women’s Basketball and Baseball (and Softball). They would add to the Big 12 profile right now.
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Well, they would certainly change the profile. But add? Only in a numerical sense.
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And if OSU does beat Wisky comfortably & doesn’t get the nod, what does that say? It will certainly underscore the national perception of the BIG being down and overrated for a while now.
This will be an interesting vote if OSU does in fact win by at least 10 points.
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Program performance-wise, I whole heartedly agree with Cincy and Memphis as 11 and XII. In If these programs are not snapped up at the latest in the mid-2020s (GOR expirations), they could face the same fate as UAB.
If there can still be 5 mega-conferences after the mid-2020s GOR expirations, its probably the Big XII going toe to toe with the PAC for BYU and one other MWC program to get to 14. 5 megas can work only if they all agree to remain at 14 and the playoff has been expanded to 8. If it’s 4 megas, then its a raid on the flagships of the ACC and B12 by the SEC and Big 10 to get to 16 or 18. (Pac might try for TX/OK) with the 4th major conference perhaps being a ” (majority) Private School League”
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Cincy would be an obvious choice, but Memphis is just so bad in football relative to other potential schools that it stands very little chance.
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Memphis won at least a share the American Athletic Conference Championship this year and gave an extension to their coach. The football program is on the rise.
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@Wainscott – Memphis is actually pretty good in football at least this year. I’d always keep an eye on schools with solid basketball fan bases that would do wonders for themselves if they merely had competent football programs (i.e. Memphis, UConn, UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico). Those can be attractive realignment options on paper.
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I wonder if ASU/Arizona played the PAC-8 against the SWC when they were about to leave the then-WAC in the mid-1970s. Houston came into the SWC in 1974; they might have been the only one of a bigger group being recruited to jump in (ASU/UA/UNM would have been quite a coup with Houston) or were the consolation prize. FWIW, the state of Arizona including the PHX metro was much more a “colony” of Texas than a “colony” of California or Chicago in earlier years. Most fan map-type tools show the Cowboys as the 2nd or 3rd favorite team of Arizonans.
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Where do a couple of those teams go? San Diego State has zero chance with the PAC, with 2 teams in LA. Will the Big Xii want to go to California, so they wind up will schools nearly 2,500 apart (W.Va to SD State)? UConn has no home unless something dramatic happens in the ACC. UConn does not really add much to any conference. It does nothing for the B1G. Small state, very few high school star athletes for recruiting, in direct conflict with BC in New England, and no impact in NY. (And no AAU). I could see Cincinnati or UCF and/or USF for the Big 12. Someone previously posted an article about gaining access to Tampa and Orlando for the Big 12. Made sense to me. I guess that the Big 12 could go with Cinnci and Memphis. UNLV seems more attractive than New Mexico, but to which conference?
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“…its probably the Big XII going toe to toe with the PAC for BYU…”
No. Just no. BYU is not getting invited to the PAC…
“…megas can work only if they all agree to remain at 14 and the playoff has been expanded to 8.”
Why? It came very close to happening during the pre playoff BCS era.
“(Pac might try for TX/OK)”
Shouldn’t that be in the past, and possibly current tense?
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http://www.bcsnn.com/aac/777-big-12-looking-to-poach-memphis-tigers-and-cincinnati-bearcats.html
It’s from C. Austin Cox, so take it with a truckload of salt.
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It seems likely that Memphis facilities are not up to Big 12 standards, but if they can build them up (as it has been alleged that Memphis-based CEO of FedEx is willing to help them do) and can build on their recent football success, they could mature into the program that makes sense geographically for the Big 12 as well as being a reasonable add in both revenue sports.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jerry-palm/24750651/playoff-committee-data-wont-help-them-make-decisions
Of course Jerry Palm likes computers, but it is an interesting point of view and helps explain why the committee is putting out so much contradictory information on how it makes its decisions. Its limitation of data means it is relying on eyeball tests and then trying to justify them.
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The usefulness of statistical analysis of football is fundamentally limited by the small number of games. Twelve or thirteen data points, many against teams of disparate talent levels, just isn’t enough to provide accurate results. That’s why the eye test will always be the determining factor.
What I noted was that Palm complained about the available stats (lack of a SOS metric, etc) and yet didn’t suggest any new ones other than MOV. What is his suggested SOS formula, and how has it worked in past years? What other stats should be added? How about suggesting a modified MOV stat that wouldn’t reward running up the score but would differentiate between close wins and easy wins?
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Final overnight ratings from Thanksgiving night.
0.8 ESPN LSU v. A&M
0.3 FS1 TCU v. Texas
7.4 NBC Seahawks v. 49ers.
Not good to go head to head with the NFL.
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And really crazy to try to double up on one state when most people are already going to watch the Cowboys. ESPN should have told the SEC to give them something else.
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bullet – As you know, playing on Thanksgiving night is a tradition for Texas and A&M. LSU and A&M wanted to play on rivalry weekend since the Aggies joined the SEC. A&M really wants to play on Thanksgiving night during the years that they host the game. I understand that Texas now plays on Thanksgiving night every year with some rotation of TCU, Texas Tech, and Baylor getting the invite for this very inconvenient “tradition”.
LSU, while not happy about it, agreed to play on Thanksgiving nights in College Station, with the understanding that the game should be played on Saturday nights in Baton Rouge.
I find it interesting that the SEC game featuring two unranked teams almost tripled the ratings of a top 5 TCU team against the Longhorns.
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TCU/UT was a blowout and it was on FS1. On TH September 25th, Texas Tech/Oklahoma St. drew a 1.1 on ESPN. UCLA/Arizona St. drew only a .6 for a clearly better matchup (although it ended up being a blowout).
This was the 32nd FS1 game this season with a rating of .5 or less. Only 6 did better:
Two got a .6 (UCLA/ASU and TCU/OSU). 1 got a .7 (OR/Cal). 1 got a .8 (UT/WVU). 1 got a 1.0 (BU/WVU). 1 got a 1.3 (BU/OU).
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What is actually interesting is how poorly LSU/A&M did relative to other ESPN TH night games. Only Houston/BYU did worse (.6). 10 games did better (including BYU/UCF) and 2 drew the same .8 (Cal/USC and VT/Miami).
So my point stands. It seems pretty foolish to put two Texas state teams on that same night and overlap the Cowboys. The casual Texas fans were split and there wasn’t enough interest outside Texas.
Texas and Texas A&M were played on Friday during the Big 12 era.
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@bullet – From afar, I always questioned why either UT or A&M wanted to play as the “after dinner mint” after the Cowboys on Thanksgiving in recent years. Black Friday seemed to be more suitable.
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In the past (pre-Big 12), I frequently heard complaints from Cowboy fans about the conflict. You couldn’t go to one without missing most or all of the other.
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A little perspective.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2014/12/college-football-thanksgiving-ratings-lsu-tamu-espn-tcu-texas-fs1-sec-big-12/
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Now that the NFL has moved to TH nights, I don’t see the P5 doing TH night games in their new contracts (they are stuck with some in the current contract). They can’t be that valuable opposite the NFL to ESPN/Fox. And they hurt attendance.
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The two competing games seem to be drawing on a fixed audience. According to the article Texas/Texas A&M, both 6-5, in 2011 on ESPN drew as many viewers as LSU/A&M on ESPN and Texas/TCU on FS1 combined.
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bullet – the other variable is that prior to 2012, the prime time NFL Thanksgiving night game was aired on the NFL Network. Since 2012, the game has been aired on NBC.
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Well, the bullies in Tuscaloosa have done it. Their stooge sent this today.
Dear UAB Family,
More than a year ago, UAB began the largest, most comprehensive strategic planning process in the university’s history. Designed to identify areas of excellence and set priorities for investment and growth, this strategic review has empowered leaders across campus to think critically about how to best invest resources and position UAB as a premier and sustainable institution for the future.
Today, we announced results of the Athletic Department’s strategic planning process. In order for us to more effectively reinvest in athletic programs that are most likely to bring growth, prolonged success and national prominence to UAB, the 2014-2015 academic year will be the final season for UAB football, bowling and rifle.
After an extensive review of current and future financial data, it became clear that, despite noteworthy success this season under Coach Bill Clark, investments in football were unlikely to produce a sustainable return relative to the required investment. This is especially the case with the rapidly evolving NCAA landscape and the soaring costs associated with maintaining a competitive team.
UAB already subsidizes $20 million of the roughly $30 million annual Athletic Department budget, which is the fifth-largest budget and subsidy in Conference USA. We will continue to support Athletics at this level, which amounts to an institutional investment of at least $100 million over the next five years. According to expert analysis by CarrSports Consulting, UAB would have to substantially increase our operating budget and our capital investments in facilities to support an Athletic Department that fields a competitive Conference USA football team.
The difference between our future Athletic Department with and without football is an additional $49 million investment on top of the $100 million UAB will already invest in Athletics in the next five years. From an operating budget standpoint alone, the difference between the scenario in which we maintain a competitive Conference USA football program and eliminate it is more than $27 million over the next five years. This does not include additional needed capital investments of $22 million for football facilities alone. These capital projects would include a field house, an indoor practice facility and a turf field, but not a stadium.
We have considered many options to fill this financial gap, including through philanthropic support; but our informed analysis of current and past support and interest concluded that the gap is simply too wide.
It would be fiscally irresponsible and virtually impossible to keep pace with these growing financial demands without sacrificing the financial health and sustainability of Athletics, or redirecting funds from other critical areas of importance, like education, research, patient care or student services.
This decision is not about cutting the Athletics budget, but instead is about reallocating resources to more fully support and reinvest in athletic programs in which we have an opportunity to achieve a high level of success. Many of our programs have been on the cusp, and redirecting funds from football can propel them to the next level.
With this strategy, I am confident that UAB’s best days for Athletics are ahead. But the coming days and months will be difficult for those most affected. We couldn’t be more proud of how well our student-athletes and coaches have represented the institution, even in the midst of recent, very regrettable distractions. They have earned our respect and appreciation, which makes this necessary financial decision all the more difficult.
I have met with impacted student-athletes and coaches, and will meet with others affected. It is my top priority to make this transition as easy as possible. We will honor scholarships for those who choose to stay at UAB beyond this season, and we will honor coaches’ contracts. When a program is discontinued, per NCAA bylaws, players who decide to leave UAB to play elsewhere will not be required to sit out of competition the following season.
To those who are losing something they hold dear with this decision, I am truly sorry. I know many are saddened by this news. As a Birmingham native, a sports fan, and a UAB graduate who loves this university and its people, I am among those disappointed in the necessity of this decision. While it is the right one for the financial future of UAB Athletics and UAB as a whole, it is an agonizing one to make.
I know many will be interested in following developments during this transition. For more information, and updates as they become available, I encourage you to visit http://www.uab.edu/athleticsplan.
Very sincerely,
Ray L. Watts
Ray L. Watts
President
UAB ’76
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I wonder how accurately their strategic analysis predicted the upcoming drop in applications and resulting shrinkage and reduced accolades of the student body?
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I doubt it makes any difference at all. UAB is not a school you attend to see Football. In Alabama you would go to Auburn or Alabama.
When people talk about the sports impact, they look only at super successful schools, and below P5 these are the start ups and up and comers, like Boise State or FGCU. In both cases its part of a much larger marketing program. But in truth most G5 schools derive little benefit, and in some cases Athletics actually drains from Academics. A recent audit of one school in California showed a strong correlation between the diversion of money to keep the Athletic program afloat and the resulting replacement of full time faculty with temps (wandering lecturers), disrupting continuity, and hurting academics.
The fastest growing source of donations at most schools are overseas Asians, especially Chinese nationals. Few if any ever attended sporting events. But still there are donations from sports, although schools like UConn, UNLV, Memphis, and probably UAB also it’s Basketball that provides more. Also there is withing donations a certain cannibalism involved. Often pledged money is money that would have come anyway, just now its dedicated a to certain project.
The real truth is below the P5 level Athletics, and especially Football, requires huge subsidies, either from higher fees and tuition or from injection of tax dollars through institutional transfers. The amount of money transferred in the G5 schools is staggering, possible over $1B a decade. That is a significant chunk of change that should be going toward perhaps expanding STEM programs whose graduates industry needs and pays big money for, or lower fees and tuition to make college more affordable, or some combination of both. (I picked STEM, but it can be anything a school wants to become world class at)
I am surprised that FranktheTank, who is so good at the money side of College Athletics, really hasn’t looked into the issues the G5 face, and the ethical dilemma subsidies entail, nor explored a model that would be sustainable without wasting money for the pleasure of a few.
It sucks for UAB, but it could have been Hawaii, New Mexico State, Bowling Green, UMass, Southern Miss, or San Jose State (and they may all get their time in the bulls-eye soon). Its a larger issue that needs to be addressed.
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From the DOE:
UAB spent $9.0M on football, $4.7M on MBB, $7.6M on all other sports and $9.2M on unaffiliated expenses. That makes football about 30% of their budget. Football has 112 participants compared to 425 total participants in all sports at UAB, or 26% of total participants. Football isn’t the problem.
—
http://www.nacubo.org/Business_Officer_Magazine/Business_Officer_Plus/Bonus_Material/College_Athletics_Necessary_Not_Just_Nice_to_Have.html
Plenty of school presidents and such have indicated the intangible value of sports.
http://chronicle.com/article/Should-We-Ditch-Football-/65356/
—
And UAB is 63% white and 22% black. Only 3% are international students.
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Since the following sports at the University of Alabama are also a financial drain,
I expect them to be dropped next:
mens and women’s cross country
mens and womens golf
mens and womens tennis
swimming and diving
indoor track and field
outdoor track and field
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Note that he partly blames it on the lawsuits and NCAA re-org. So UAB is the first victim of full cost of scholarships.
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He can blame it on whatever he wants, but NCAA re-org and lawsuits and full cost of scholarships are the spin to cover what is entirely a political decision pushed by a vengeful Bryant.
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Bingo
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What’s the story behind a “vengeful Bryant?”
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Gene Bartow, UAB’s basketball coached accused Alabama of cheating and told the NCAA back around 1991.
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http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/jon-solomon/24806444/is-the-alabama-board-of-trustees-finally-ready-to-kill-uab-football
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Or the time Bryant Jr. got the board to reject UAB’s contract with Jimbo Fisher. http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/story/9891201
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No doubt that Alabama played a role in UAB dropping football. But for schools like UAB that are not and never will be a part of big-time football, it’s obvious that the costs are enormous. They’re counting on the value of “prestige” and big paydays from playing the bigger teams, but it’s not clear that they’re really getting much prestige, and the big paydays may soon be a thing of the past.
In any case, here’s an explanation that’s somewhat more balanced than the posts claiming it was all the fault of Bear Bryant’s son (though the article certainly places SOME of the blame there). http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-uabs-football-team-couldnt-even-last-20-years/
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“They’re counting on the value of “prestige” and big paydays from playing the bigger teams, but it’s not clear that they’re really getting much prestige, and the big paydays may soon be a thing of the past.”
Its not so much the value of prestige as the value of exposure … and while they do not get the exposure of the big time football program, it is quite plausible that they do as well or better with that money than if they spent it on some other marketing activity.
As far as the big paydays soon being a thing of the past, that seems unlikely. Buy games are how the big time football programs are able to fill up their big stadiums seven times a year rather than six. In the Big Ten move from eight to nine conference games per year, the Go5 schools have lost some payday games, but the FCS schools look to be losing more.
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It may be “plausible” that a low-level FBS program receives enough exposure to justify the program’s costs, but where is the evidence for that?
It’s easy to throw out accusations of sinister intent or stupidity regarding UAB’s decision, and people on this board love to do it. But the school has to take more into account than simply catering to people who want football at any cost. And it’s silly to assume that any of us know more about the numbers affecting UAB’s income and expenses than UAB itself does.
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bikemore,
“It may be “plausible” that a low-level FBS program receives enough exposure to justify the program’s costs, but where is the evidence for that?”
Where’s the evidence against it?
Studies have shown that dropping football usually lowers the number of applications you receive and thus decreases the quality of your student body. Televised games are also advertising for the school. In addition, sports build goodwill with students and alumni and create opportunities to bring alumni back to campus (where they can be solicited for donations). What’s the value of that?
Now add in that it wasn’t really UAB deciding this but the UofA’s BoT.
Does UAB football lose money? Obviously. So do almost all sports. If it was just a financial question, everyone would drop sports.
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Is that really true that studies have shown that dropping football results in fewer applications? I’m surprised that studies of that sort have been conducted, and would like to see them, or at least summaries of them.
In any case, no one is disputing that football gives a school exposure. The issue is whether that exposure is worth it given the costs. For example, some prospective students surely see the lack of a football program as a positive, if it results in them not needing to pay higher student fees (and the sports subsidies required of students can be quite high).
But for various reasons, most posters on this board disregard any negatives to maintaining a football program, and simply assume that any program, at any cost, is worth it. UAB, on the other hand, surely studied the numbers–in fact they said that it was a numbers issue. But you all are assuming that UAB is being completely disingenuous, even though you don’t have access to the same information.
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Dropping football may decrease applications, but it does not follow that the quality of the student body would decrease.
From what I’ve seen, the students who are best academically usually do not have football/gameday atmosphere as one of their top rationales for choosing a school, while those students who do have that as an important criterion usually are not top students.
For a mostly commuter school like UAB, I doubt that dropping football will lower the quality of their student body much at all.
Note that the Ivy League steadily deemphasized the importance of football over time. The quality of their student bodies definitely have not decreased (it has increased over the decades, actually).
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bikemore,
“Is that really true that studies have shown that dropping football results in fewer applications? I’m surprised that studies of that sort have been conducted, and would like to see them, or at least summaries of them.”
Yes, it’s true. I found a few via Google. One factor that complicates things is that the impact depends on the type of school (the impact is bigger on students with lower academic credentials) and the level of the football program (I-A, I-AA, D-II, D-III). There aren’t a ton of data points either.
“The issue is whether that exposure is worth it given the costs.”
What does advertising cost? What’s the value of a 3.5 hour commercial every Saturday? If students aren’t really aware of your school, then they won’t apply to it.
What is the value of fostering school spirit and building ties that draw back alumni?
You can’t just call it a numbers problem when the other side has a lot of intangibles.
“But for various reasons, most posters on this board disregard any negatives to maintaining a football program, and simply assume that any program, at any cost, is worth it.”
It’s not disregarding the costs to disagree with their conclusions.
“UAB, on the other hand, surely studied the numbers”
No, they hired someone to study the numbers. And the U of A BoT made the final decision.
“But you all are assuming that UAB is being completely disingenuous, even though you don’t have access to the same information.”
No, we’re saying the UAB president is a mouthpiece and is saying what he’s been told to say.
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Richard,
“Dropping football may decrease applications, but it does not follow that the quality of the student body would decrease.”
The theory the studies espoused was that fewer applications led to a higher acceptance rate which forced the school to take some students they wouldn’t have otherwise. The data backed up a slight decrease in the metrics.
“From what I’ve seen, the students who are best academically usually do not have football/gameday atmosphere as one of their top rationales for choosing a school, while those students who do have that as an important criterion usually are not top students.”
Yes, the studies show that, too. The loss of sports has a lesser impact on the top students.
“For a mostly commuter school like UAB, I doubt that dropping football will lower the quality of their student body much at all.”
Certainly it’s a minor change at most. I’m not talking ACT scores dropping 5 points or anything.
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How much do bowling shirts cost these days???
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Hoke is fired at Michigan. Here’s a report from a Baton Rouge perspective.
http://theadvocate.com/sports/lsu/10991130-123/brady-hoke-fired-at-michigan
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Do you think Les will take the job IF Michigan offered?
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Mike – I don’t know. Les loves his alma mater, but he also loves LSU. He will never embarrass Michigan by publicly turning them down so there has been a discrepancy in reports of Michigan’s interest in him now, as well as in 2007 and 2010. Down here, it is believed that despite the Carr faction that doesn’t like Miles, Les was twice offered the job and privately declined. In 2007, Herbstreet broke the news the day of the SEC CCG and Miles had to deny interest. In 2010, former LSU AD Skip Bertman has said that Michigan made an offer, but talks broke down over payment of assistants.
Even though Miles is 61, he’s a young 61 and I could see him coaching another 10 years. Les has never been fully appreciated in Baton Rouge because he isn’t Saban. He’s coming off a rebuilding and somewhat disappointing 8-4 season. He’s coached here for ten years and his alma mater is a dumpster fire. The timing couldn’t be better for Les to make an emotional decision to bring back the magic at Michigan.
Here’s a somewhat tongue-in-cheek column written by a very well-respected LSU beat writer that appeared today in the Baton Rouge Advocate.
http://theadvocate.com/sports/11002207-123/time-is-right-for-les
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There is a point where it is better to get a fresh start for your own energy, let alone that of the program.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11968950/jameis-winston-florida-state-seminoles-teammates-refuse-testify-student-conduct-hearing
Jameis’s teammates who were at the party refused to testify at his hearing today.
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It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Conference USA, they could keep UAB as a member and add Army or UMass as a football-only member but I suspect that they will add New Mexico State as a full-member and let UAB go to the Southland or possibly American Athletic Conference. UTEP needs a travel partner and adding New Mexico State would solve that and cut out any worries of UTEP bouncing for Mountain West Conference.
C-USA West
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
North Texas
Rice
Southern Miss
UTEP
UTSA
C-USA East
Charlotte
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Marshall
Middle Tennessee
Old Dominion
Western Kentucky
They could sign a 5-game scheduling agreement with Army or UMass if they like. If I’m the AAC, I would add UAB to get to 12-teams for Men’s & Women’s Basketball filling in that void left by Navy. I’m pretty sure the Big 12 will wait one more year until 2016 to decide on expansion, some say they are debating between 10, 12 and 14 teams and with TCU most likely in the CFB Playoff, they might as well.
I’m going on upset alert as well, Wisconsin over Ohio State and Georgia Tech over Florida State. Final CFB Rankings…
1.) Alabama
2.) Oregon
3.) TCU
4.) Baylor
Then the Big 12 can pump out their chests about being “One True Champion” by getting blown out by ‘Bama & Oregon. I wonder what would happen if Arizona, Georgia Tech, Missouri & Wisconsin win. Expect Chaos, haha.
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Please, no additions to CUSA. I would like to see it back down to 12 somehow.
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Rice to AAC with Army? That gets CUSA down to 12.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/rankings/_/poll/21
New CFP poll:
1. AL
2. OR
3. TCU
4. FSU
5. OSU
6. Baylor
7. AZ
8. MSU
9. KSU
10. MS St
11. GT
13. WI
16. MO
23. Boise
Wow, I really didn’t expect TCU to pass FSU. It’s looking like even a win over KSU might not be enough to get Baylor over TCU. Will the committee punish TCU for facing ISU this week when all the other top teams are playing a top 16 foe? If not, they may be basically locked into the playoff.
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Trying to give Alabama a better matchup the first round? That’s probably who they match up best against and who FSU matches least well against.
That’s pretty interesting.
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If decided today, the big 6 bowls would be well spread:
Big 12 3
MWC 1
SEC, Pac 12, B1G, ACC 2 each
The Baylor/KSU loser likely gets replaced by 3 loss Ole Miss.
If Arizona loses, they likely get replaced by 3 loss Georgia.
Mizzou gets in only if they win over Alabama, displacing UGA or Ole Miss.
Possible 3rd Big 10 team if Wisconsin wins close over Ohio ST., but looks like 4 SEC teams.
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ISU is 0-8 in B12 play. ISU’s only victories this year are against Iowa at Iowa and Toledo at home. OSU needs help to get in. Even overtime wins should keep AL, OR, and FSU in the playoff. A close win should not be enough for TCU…they need the style points from a big winning margin since ISU is so bad.
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Great little breakdown by Dosh:
Getting their 2nd-place team in to the Orange the maximum (5 out of 8) times in 12 years nets much more revenues for the B10 and SEC than getting an extra team in to the playoff.
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This year, it’s looking like the B10 will play the ACC in the Orange (likely MSU but could be OSU). Unless ‘Bama gets upset, which, nah.
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http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/112083/coach-of-the-year-still-out-of-ohio-states-reach
And so it continues. Jerry Kill won the B10 CotY award.
OSU lost 4 starting OL, the stud RB, the top WR, and 2 weeks before the season the Heisman-candidate QB, and the offense was tremendous yet again. 2013’s pass D was terrible plus OSU lost 1 elite DL, 2 LBs and 2 DBs and has improved. Does OSU have better talent than everyone else? Well, recruiting is part of the coach’s job.
What does an OSU coach need to do to win the award again? A national title run wasn’t even enough. OSU last won the award in 1979.
Winners since 1979:
IL – 4.5
IN – 1.5
IA – 5.5
MI – 5.5
MSU – 3.5
MN – 2
NW – 3.5
PSU – 4
PU – 2
WI – 2
UMD – 0
NE – 0
OSU – 0
RU – 0
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/dear-mona-are-there-any-other-men-who-dont-watch-sports/
Apparently about 7% of men don’t watch any televised sports. The same is true for women.
By age group:
18-34:
M 14%
W 13%
35-54:
M 5%
W 5%
55+:
M 3%
W 3%
Is this a function of age (younger people are busier), or will the younger generations pose a problem for TV sports in the future?
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My guess is that it is generational. 30-45 is probably the busiest time both for careers and family. If you look at volunteer groups (other than schools) you usually get younger and older people.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/college-football-playoff-update-tcu-promotion-shakes-up-odds/
538’s new CFP projection:
Rank – School – (odds of making the playoff)
1. AL (94%)
2. OR (81%)
3. TCU (96%)
4. FSU (62%)
5. OSU (35%)
6. Baylor (18%)
7. MSU (0%)
8. AZ (10%)
9. MS St (0%)
10. KSU (3%)
MSU being so high means they likely will play in the Orange Bowl versus GT (maybe Clemson).
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Maybe FSU.
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TV ratings (3.0 or higher) updated through week 13.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Week 13: 3.6 (ABC) BC/FSU or Wisc/Iowa
Week 12: 6.4 (CBS at 3:30p) Miss St/Bama; 5.4 (ABC at 8p) FSU/Miami; 3.7 (ABC at noon) Ohio St/Minnesota
Updated Network scorecard: (11) ABC; (9) CBS; (4) ESPN; (1) FOX
Updated Conference scorecard: (25) SEC; (12) ACC; (10) B1G; (5) Pac-12; (2) Big XII and ND.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11978459/nebraska-hires-mike-riley-replace-fired-bo-pelini
Lots of coaching news. NE hired Mike Riley from OrSU and UF hired Jim McElwain from CSU. Riley is a solid coach but not a big name and is already 61. I’m a little surprised that’s the direction NE went. McElwain is an up and comer with SEC ties after being AL’s OC before rebuilding CSU. I think he’s a solid choice for UF. Still, it’s a little surprising to not see any big names really involved. Do these quick hires put pressure on MI to follow suit, or make things easier for them because there isn’t much competition out there in terms of top jobs available?
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http://www.jconline.com/story/sports/college/purdue/football/2014/12/03/earlier-bucket-game-purdue-indiana/19834431/
IN and PU may request to move the Old Oaken Bucket game to an earlier week to help attendance. Maybe they should make it a B10 season opener and play in September, then play OOC the last week.
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So then they have a different game with even less attendance late in the season.
Rivalry games can draw when nothing else would.
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Yes, but I think they’d rather have a full house for the OOB game than for MACtion.
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The big problem would be what to do about the rest of the Big Ten schedule. If they refused to play non-conference games that weekend, the Big Ten would need 2 other schools to play a cross-divisional game. The schools involved would have to change every year (since Indiana & Purdue are the only 2 permanent rivals), and that would mean schools wouldn’t have consistent end-of-the year opponents. It would also increase the chance of having teams playing in back-to-back weeks (the Thanksgiving game & then the Conference championship game).
If the schools & conferences would agree to it, they could have a school from each division playing a non-conference game that week. I know it’s not going to happen, but it would be nice for the Big Ten, ACC, & Big 12 to get together and agree to have a Thanksgiving weekend that included: Nebraska v. OU; Syracuse v. Rutgers; & WVU v. Pitt. That would allow the Big Ten to play 6 intraconference games without any cross-divisional games.
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m(Ag),
“The big problem would be what to do about the rest of the Big Ten schedule. If they refused to play non-conference games that weekend, the Big Ten would need 2 other schools to play a cross-divisional game. The schools involved would have to change every year (since Indiana & Purdue are the only 2 permanent rivals), and that would mean schools wouldn’t have consistent end-of-the year opponents. It would also increase the chance of having teams playing in back-to-back weeks (the Thanksgiving game & then the Conference championship game).”
I think they have 2 real choices. IN and PU should play OOC that week or have a bye. If they play OOB in September, then they could both probably play MAC teams that week.
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I would be OK with a bye the last weekend and then we play the Bucket game the weekend before the holiday. That is really the more traditional weekend for that game anyway. Playing any game after Thanksgiving will take a hit on the student attendance. I was at the PSU/MSU game last weekend and the student section was probably less than half full.
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On that note about low student attendance, would it make sense to “follow” the students/young alums and play the resulting IU or PU Thanksgiving weekend home game in the RCA Dome (or dare I say Soldier Field or in a stretch, US Cellular Field/ refurbished Wrigley?). Purdue in particular seems to have a more visible alumni presence in the Chicago suburbs south of I-88 / BNSF RR and in the NWI “Region”, and as a consequence amongst White Sox fandom, so a U.S. Cellular game may be a good idea.
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maybe they can play home and home with USF and UCF. The Florida schools host in
November and play up north in September.
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m(Ag): Ending the season with a rotating non-rival isn’t really a big deal in the B10. Northwestern/Illinois/Wisconsin/MSU use to do that all the time (paring up with each other in a random fashion to end the season).
They definitely will not allow the last week to be a bye week, however (in order for all participants in the title game to get the same amount of rest). In fact, it’s a Delany edict that all B10 teams are in action the last 2 weeks of the season (so that no one has a rest advantage heading in to either the title game or rivalry games).
This _could_ work. Northwestern/Illinois/PU and IU/MSU/PSU/RU/UMD could all have random end-of-season games.
The Bucket game as a season opener actually doesn’t sound like a bad idea. It’s one way for those schools to get in the spotlight.
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Problem with this is that the Bucket game is the oldest season ender in the conference and I’d imagine one of the oldest in the country. It’d be really sad to see it changed.
What about this as an alternative? Have Indiana/Purdue end the season one week earlier and have no game Thanksgiving week (like it used to be). Heck, I would be fine with Ohio State/Michigan being the week before Thanksgiving as well as long as neither were scheduled a game the last weekend. They probably wouldn’t do that with OSU/UM, but they might for Purdue/Indiana. It would mean no bye some years, but would help the attendance issue.
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Did you read what I read?
OK, I’ll repeat:
They definitely will not allow the last week to be a bye week, however (in order for all participants in the title game to get the same amount of rest). In fact, it’s a Delany edict that all B10 teams are in action the last 2 weeks of the season (so that no one has a rest advantage heading in to either the title game or rivalry games).
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http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/112265/eligible-b1g-team-may-be-left-out-of-bowls
A bowl-eligible B10 team may miss out on a bowl.
The Big Ten could have a bowl-eligible team not end up in a bowl game this season. The league outlined the scenario — and other postseason probables — in a memo sent to its athletic directors Wednesday and obtained by ESPN.com.
Here’s the deal: If Michigan State ends up in the Orange Bowl, a strong possibility, and only one other Big Ten team makes the New Year’s six bowls, the Big Ten will be left with eight eligible teams for seven contracted spots. Remember, when the Big Ten sends a team to the Orange Bowl — the bowl pairs an ACC team with the highest-ranked non-playoff participant from the SEC or Big Ten, or Notre Dame — it does not fill its spot in the Citrus Bowl.
There are already 80 bowl-eligible teams for 76 available spots, all of which are contracted to certain leagues. So there will be no at-large selections this season.
Michigan State is No. 8 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings, two spots ahead of Mississippi State, the other likely candidate for the Orange Bowl. If No. 1 Alabama loses to No. 16 Missouri in the SEC championship game, the Tide almost certainly would go to the Orange Bowl ahead of Michigan State. But if Alabama wins, Michigan State is a virtual lock for the Orange unless the selection committee somehow flip-flops the two MSUs on a weekend when neither plays.
If No. 5 Ohio State beats No. 13 Wisconsin, the Big Ten would be limited to two teams in New Year’s Six games. If that’s the case and Michigan State makes the Orange Bowl, the league would have an eligible team miss out on a bowl. The likely candidates would be Illinois (6-6), Rutgers (7-5) or Maryland (7-5).
Penn State also is 6-6, it’s hard to imagine bowls not clamoring for the Nittany Lions, who haven’t gone bowling since 2011 because of NCAA sanctions. Iowa is 7-5 and ended the season on a down note, but bowls absolutely love the Hawkeyes and their massive traveling fan base.
Although the Big Ten has more say in preventing repeat matchups, the bowls still have a decent amount of pull.
“The Conference will not interfere or influence our contract bowls’ selection rights, nor does it have any control over the CFP,” Mark Rudner, the Big Ten’s senior associate commissioner for television administration, wrote to the athletic directors Wednesday. “Unless a contract bowl selects a team that is over-exposed because of recent trips to the same bowl or same region, we will not interfere with the bowl’s selection.”
Rudner goes on to write: “Our bowls have the choice, other than the repeat criteria, to select the team that fits their bowl need on an annual basis. In other words, the number of wins, number of losses, head to head, and schedule strength are advisory only. These factors guide the bowl’s selection, but do not direct it. The selection process is intended to move teams and fan bases around the country over the life of these contracts.”
The Big Ten memo encourages its schools to “advocate and communicate on behalf of your institution with the bowls in light of this set of circumstances.” Put on those sales caps, Mike Thomas, Kevin Andersen and Julie Hermann. You might need them.
Or just root for Wisconsin to beat Ohio State on Saturday night. Although it would eliminate the Big Ten from the playoff picture, it likely would ensure the Big Ten has three teams in New Year’s Six games and all eligible teams in bowls.
The Big Ten has contracts with 12 bowls but shares spots in the Orange-Citrus, Gator-Music City and Heart of Dallas-Armed Forces bowls. If a Big Ten team goes to the Orange Bowl, the remaining non-New Year’s Six tie-ins would be: Outback, Holiday, Gator or Music City (not both), San Francisco, Pinstripe, Quick Lane and Heart of Dallas.
This is the first I’ve heard that the conference will have so little say over the bowl destinations.
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@Brian – My Illini are in prime position to be screwed out of a bowl bid. I still don’t understand why the Big Ten agreed to give up the Citrus Bowl slot whenever it gets an Orange Bowl bid. The SEC rightly didn’t agree to that setup.
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Frank, the Citrus likely insisted on either that or a sharing arrangement with the ACC. Basically, while they don’t have qualms about the SEC’s 3rd/4th best team, they’re afraid that the B10’s 3rd/4th best team may not be a strong enough draw.
In any case, this is likely just an article to scare up page views. The B12 currently has 7 slots and 6 bowl-eligible teams (OK St. would have to upset OU to make that 7). TCU and the Baylor/KSU winner are certain to be picked by the playoff/host bowls.
So there will be at least 1-2 B12 bowl slots open. If the SEC places 2 teams in to the playoff/host bowls, an SEC bowl slot opens up.
Would the Cactus/Ft. Worth/Independence/Birmingham bowls pick some leftover CUSA/Sun Belt/MAC team over any B10 team? Extremely unlikely.
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There’s no way a 6-6 G5 school gets picked over Illinois unless every single bowl has backup contracts with the G5 and I don’t think that’s the case. It merely means Illinois has to look around and may end up out west.
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I think it is no the case, and indeed that the point of the memo was to warn the schools in danger of not getting a Big Ten affiliated bowl to get on the phone with the Bowls that might be looking to fill an open spot.
Unless there are upsets with O(k)SU and Temple, I reckon a Bowl that would normally be picking up a Go5 school as a fill-in will be taking a Big Ten school.
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My thoughts:
-I originally heard the Big Ten wanted to reduce its plethora of Florida bowls, which was why it wanted out of the Citrus when it placed a team in the Orange. Sounded strange to me
-If Ohio State loses this weekend, I wouldn’t be sure the Big Ten gets 3 teams in the playoff bowls; I could see OSU falling right out of the top 10, especially if their offense doesn’t look good with their 3rd string QB.
-That said, Illinois (or whoever is the last Big Ten team picked), would be more desirable than just about any other team for whatever spot is open.
-The SEC would need 4 teams in the playoff affiliated bowls to have a spot open up in its rotation. If 3 teams are selected, that would give us 12 spots for 12 bowl-eligible teams. If only 2 are selected, there will be one team without a place. However, we apparently have a back-up agreement with bowls in Fort Worth & Dallas; one of those will probably have an opening because the Big 12 won’t have enough teams.
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Think it probably had to be part of the deal either from the ACC or the Citrus otherwise I don’t see the conference doing it.
1. The ACC could have just gone with the SEC and Notre Dame (or gone fewer years with the Big Ten). Getting in fully in this might have required giving up something. This one is my guess.
2. The Citrus might have feared having multiple Big Ten CFP teams would limit it’s options too much. The number of ranked teams is limited and in some years you are down to the 4th best Big Ten school. This is magnified further by the fact that the Citrus doesn’t want to be in a position to take the same school every year and it’s options are likely to be limited if it wants a ranked one.
My guess is #1. Maybe the Big Ten could have fought harder and got the same deal without loosing the Citrus. On the other hand, the ACC might have been just as willing to split those Big Ten appearances up a bit more with the PAC-12, Big 12, and Big Ten each getting one appearance or something along those lines.
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Eric: Good point. This setup could have been due to the ACC negotiating for more bowl slots.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/early-lead/wp/2014/12/04/fake-bo-pelini-writes-legendary-welcome-letter-to-new-nebraska-coach-mike-riley-on-twitter/
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@MayorEmanuel still reigns supreme, but @FauxPelini will be missed (assuming he’s done).
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Scott Roussel of footballscoop.com was interviewed on the local sports talk show this morning. He said that Bielema was Nebraska’s first choice. He also expects Michigan to hire either Utah’s Kyle Whittingham or BC’s Steve Addazio.
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I wanted Addazio (or Narduzzi) for the Illini…damn.
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He also said that Narduzzi is being targeted by Texas A&M to fill their open DC slot.
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Hear pretty much everyone is looking at Muschamp.
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Hiring Steve Addazio would be a lot like hiring Hoke. No real proven track record of success at the highest level. That hire would likely infuriate the fan base.
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Addazio may work, but only if the Narduzzi/Dantonio dynamic is interupted. There is a finite number of the type of athletes that MSU has targeted in recent years (Ohio catholic school guys, which Blue used to have a pretty good chance with, e.g. Elvis Grbac) , perhaps not enough to spread around the 2 Michigan schools in addition to OSU, ND, et al.
I wanted a white ethnic presumably Catholic guy for the Illini HC so that they may better ID and cultivate the CCL and East Suburban Catholic league talent in the Chicago area (and other areas like Cleveland, Cincy and Pittsburgh catholic). I think that crowd gets put off by hyper-PC coaches (Tepper and his b/w roomie rule), continual favoring of mobile quarterbacking and lurches into southern markets for talent (I know this is a necessary for the modern B1G, but somehow MSU pulls off this balance). In turn, they are picked up by schools like BC and other good institution/mediocre football locations (BC, other private FBS, Ivies, service Academies, Miami (OH)).
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Writer proclaims “the end of college football as we know it.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/features/2014-12-05/the-end-of-college-football-as-we-know-it
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First quarterfinal is done and Oregon is the first through to the semis…
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The latest SI magazine had some interesting info about coaching hires.
A HC agent looked at all I-A hires from 2002-2010 (153 total) and classified them by success and where the coach came from.
Source – successful/unsuccessful (successful %)
OC/DC/position coach – 38/37 (51%)
I-A HC – 24/29 (45%)
I-AA or below – 9/4 (69%)
NFL – 3/9 (25%)
Total – 74/79 (48%)
So overall it’s a crapshoot, and hiring another I-A guy is also a flip of the coin. Based on very limited samples, NFL guys don’t do well but small school coaches do.
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Makes some sense.
There seems to be some bais against small school coaches by fans and (importantly) boosters, so those guys have to be really good to be picked.
However, they get dazzled by NFL guys even though there are aspects of the college game that an NFL coach just doesn’t have to deal with.
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Well yesterday was the first time all season I actually watched a few cf games, top to bottom.
I honestly don’t know who they’re going to pick for the 4th spot.
I’d pick OSU for a handful of reasons & I’d actually put them at 3rd:
1.) upside and talent
2.) CCG winners
3.) looked better against MSU than Oregon, point difference aside – had control of the game sooner and won in East Lansing, later in the season
4.) their defeat over Wisky is the most dominant CCG, any conference, thus far & perhaps the only shutout as well
Btw, Wisky had a bad, bad game and just didn’t know what Cardale would throw at them. Recent history between these two schools has been much, much tighter. In fact, it has been my favorite BIG rivalry for the past decade.
Two media perception things: one could hurt the Big12 and the other could hurt the BIG:
1.) Delany was too outspoken during the trophy presentation. So how many friends on the committee does he really have? His assertiveness is needed often, but not in this case and others over the years as well. I won’t ever forget his statements after the Florida-OSU BCS game. Poor judgment on his part.
2.) Briles, rightfully outspoken, blasted Bowlsby for the idea of co-champions. I’ve been disgusted with this idea since I first heard it. The Big12 has been pimping commercials all year about a “true champion” format and yet Baylor won the head-to-head. Does the committee punish the Big12 for no CCG and the semi-implosion created by Bowlsby. I think they should. It was in fact the Big12 CCG that helped the conference during the BCS era get bids over the Pac12 and BIG when the latter conferences had no CCG, though it wasn’t just at the the expense of these two conferences. The Big12 CCG was in fact a benefit that helped trigger expansion and CCG’s for the BIG and Pac12. So now the Big12 should be punished. Case closed!
Let’s be honest here, I think the CF world would be happy with a traditional lineup of the following:
Oregon/OSU in the Rose
Bama.FSU in the Sugar
But let’s never forget the influence of Tx when it comes to football, amateur or professional – period. Even it the schools in question aren’t aTm and UT.
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1. Oregon
2. ‘Bama
3. FSU
4. tOSU
would be both ideal and fair.
You can argue that the SEC West was tougher than the Pac North, but UO played and beat MSU convincingly while ‘Bama played WVU. Furthermore, UO got ‘Zona and UCLA besides Utah and Colorado in the Pac South while ‘Bama only has to deal with mediocre Tennessee and UF teams in the SEC East. Finally, UO’s win in its title game was both more convincing and over a better opponent than ‘Bama’s in its title game.
For the 4th spot, tOSU had to beat a high quality opponent in a 13th game (and did so in an extremely convincing fashion despite being underdogs). You have to reward them for the risk of a 13th game.
BTW, ESPN analysts are split this way for the last spot:
OSU: 24
TCU: 12
Baylor: 5
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Yeah I posted those numbers below. The split leans OSU by a 6 or 7 and would likely be a greater margin for OSU if you asked those Baylor-TCU voters to choose between OSU and the Big12 team they didn’t choose – like run-off voting or something. It is in fact the Big12 split that hurts the Big12.
God I’m up way too late here. Bed time. I have to tour the Viking’s stadium site tomorrow with a hard hat.
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Richard,
“1. Oregon
2. ‘Bama
3. FSU
4. tOSU
would be both ideal and fair.”
It’s certainly ideal. I do think OR is better than AL. I’d say OSU is better than FSU, but FSU is 13-0 which deserves to be rewarded. Plus, I know I’m biased on that issue.
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gfunk,
“I honestly don’t know who they’re going to pick for the 4th spot.
I’d pick OSU for a handful of reasons & I’d actually put them at 3rd:
1.) upside and talent
2.) CCG winners
3.) looked better against MSU than Oregon, point difference aside – had control of the game sooner and won in East Lansing, later in the season
4.) their defeat over Wisky is the most dominant CCG, any conference, thus far & perhaps the only shutout as well”
I’d also put them third, but I’m obviously biased. And yes, that was the first ever CCG shut out (at least among the P5). It was also the 2nd-biggest shut out of a top 15 team ever.
My reasons:
Resume –
1. OSU played 13 I-A games, including a CCG. Baylor and TCU each played 11.
2. OSU has beat 9 bowl-eligible teams, 7 by 10+ points. This includes easy wins at #8 MSU and at a neutral site against #13 WI. OSU also won at MN in November.
3. OSU beat 7 teams with a winning record (Navy still has to play Army, though). Baylor beat 3 and TCU beat 4.
4. OSU’s 12 wins were over teams averaging 6.7 wins each. Baylor’s 10 I-A teams averaged 5.5 wins, TCU’s 5.4.
5. OSU is the outright B10 champion. The conference of “one true champion” has co-champs and refuses to pick one.
Talent –
OSU replaced Braxton Miller, Carlos Hyde and 4 starting OL and the offense rolled anyway, except against VT. Lose JT Barrett the week before the CCG? No problem. The 3rd string QB just wins the MVP. And that was against a top 5 scoring defense and top 5 total defense. Meanwhile, the nation’s top RB was held to just 76 yards on 2.9 ypc. OSU is only giving up 140 yards per game despite facing 3 of the top 10 rushers in the nation this year.
Personal wishes –
I’d love to see this:
Sugar = AL vs FSU
Rose = OR vs OSU
Traditional preserved (accidentally).
“Btw, Wisky had a bad, bad game and just didn’t know what Cardale would throw at them.”
True, but that doesn’t explain letting the RB get 220 yds or Gordon getting 76 yds and giving up a fumble-6.
“Recent history between these two schools has been much, much tighter.”
Yes, it has.
“In fact, it has been my favorite BIG rivalry for the past decade.”
It’s not a rivalry. It’s been a competitive match-up, though.
“2.) Briles, rightfully outspoken, blasted Bowlsby for the idea of co-champions. I’ve been disgusted with this idea since I first heard it. The Big12 has been pimping commercials all year about a “true champion” format and yet Baylor won the head-to-head.”
Credit to Briles for doing that. It needed to be said.
“Does the committee punish the Big12 for no CCG and the semi-implosion created by Bowlsby. I think they should.”
I think it’s more a case of rewarding the schools that played 13 games than punishing those that only played 12. Especially when 1 of those 12 was a I-AA team and another was 1-11 SMU.
“It was in fact the Big12 CCG that helped the conference during the BCS era get bids over the Pac12 and BIG when the latter conferences had no CCG, though it wasn’t just at the the expense of these two conferences. The Big12 CCG was in fact a benefit that helped trigger expansion and CCG’s for the BIG and Pac12. So now the Big12 should be punished. Case closed!”
The CCG was a mixed bag for the B12. They lost several NCG slots because of CCG upsets. I’m sure bullet can supply the details.
“Let’s be honest here, I think the CF world would be happy with a traditional lineup of the following:
Oregon/OSU in the Rose
Bama.FSU in the Sugar”
I certainly would be. Especially if that was the end of the season.
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Another fun tidbit:
OSU’s win was the largest ever for an underdog in CFB (WI was favored by 4).
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BIG Basketball Tourney to NYC in 2018.
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/11989790/big-ten-tournament-played-madison-square-garden-2018
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I still think it’s a bad idea to end the season a week early just to play in the most over-rated venue on earth. There will be 11 days between the B10 title game and the start of the NCAA tourney. All the B10 teams will be very rusty but well rested. It also means the entire schedule for that season will be screwed up.
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Agree, though it would be a fun trip for sure. I have time and grade in NYC.
But too much tradition is being trampled. I think the fact that it’s 3 years out gives the BIG time to adapt their schedules, but the coaches can’t be too pleased with a potential off week while other conferences are in motion and resonating in the perception battle for final seedings. Who knows what happens by then – I guess I accept the national branding angle.
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Eh. Plenty of conferences take a week off before the Dance.
If you want to play a game or two that week, however, just have everyone schedule an OOC game or two the weekend after the conference tournament (as stated before, plenty of mid-majors also have that week off).
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Imagine if there was an injury in the post-tournament, pre-Big Dance game against a mid-major? Not sure a program can risk it.
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Tide for an OSU berth is gaining:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11991216/college-football-playoff-experts-predictions
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/bowls/predictions
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http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP poll:
1. AL
2. FSU
3. OR
4. Baylor
5. OSU
6. TCU – was #4 last week
7. MSU
8. MS St
9. MS
10. GT
17. WI
25. NE
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. AL
2. FSU
3. OR
4. OSU – was #6 last week
5. Baylor
6. TCU – was #4 last week
7. MSU
8. MS St
9. GT
10. KSU
17. WI
22. NE
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/fivethirtyeights-final-college-football-playoff-forecast/
538’s final simulation:
1. AL – 97.4% chance to be #1 seed, 32.0% odds to win it all
2. OR – 96.9% to be #2, 35.3% to win it all
3. TCU – 91.1% odds to be in, 64.0% to be #3, 15.3% to win it all
4. FSU – 67.8% to be in, 43.8% to be #4, 8.6% to win it all
5. OSU – 40.0% to be in, 28.6% to be #4, 8.5% to win it all
6. Baylor – 1.2% to be in, 1.0% to be #4, 0.2% to win it all
However, he thinks the model is too bullish on TCU and too bearish on FSU. Also, if TCU had been #4 last week then the model would have predicted OSU over TCU as #4 so we’ll see how truly clean of a slate the committee uses.
7. MSU
8. MS St
9. AZ
10. MS
11. KSU
12. GT
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Congrats Brian, though I don’t like the Bucks : ). The players and coaches earned it. I don’t think any staff has worked as hard as OSU considering the season’s long list of adverse moments.
In the future, OSU needs to be a better home team. On the other hand, they are road killers.
Interesting that this result may stabilize the Big 12 in a long-term way & end future conference alignment – at least for a decade. Or, it may radically change the landscape again. But the former seems more logical.
I still want an 8 team playoff & conference alignment that produces 2 worthy candidates for the format. If that conference realignment means FBS contraction, so be it. I’ve argued numerous times that history has pretty much narrowed down multiple AP nc winners like OSU to just under 20 programs & some of these teams like Minnesota and Pittsburgh will likely never sniff a playoff spot, esp if the field stays at 4 for the foreseeable future – though such would be a great underdog story.
Regardless of my thoughts, a school like OSU is in pretty damn good shape for the future, as are other programs based amid fertile recruiting sources.
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Stabilized the B12 how? By making them pick up 2 other schools (Cincy and . . . Memphis?) to get back to 12?
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I don’t think the Big12 will absolve, but expansion will do them justice for a CCG. So not absolving means a bit of stability for now.
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“absolve”. ??
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God! Did I really write that – Lord – dissolve.
I think the Big12 is a more vulnerable conference than advertised & it really hasn’t recovered from all of its losses. TCU is a nice add, but such a mediocre brand, albeit I’ve been really impressed with Patterson’s tenure. WVa is so gd isolated – it’s got to be misery for them, honestly, at the end of the day.
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gfunk,
“Congrats Brian”
Thanks. I was surprised at how well we played last night. I wish we’d shown that D more often this year.
“The players and coaches earned it. I don’t think any staff has worked as hard as OSU considering the season’s long list of adverse moments.”
Which is why I was disappointed Kill won the B10 CotY award. He went 8-4 2 years in a row, so it’s not like MN had a turnaround season. Meanwhile Meyer overcame all the adversity to go 8-0 for the third straight time. Maybe if they had voted after the CCG.
“Regardless of my thoughts, a school like OSU is in pretty damn good shape for the future, as are other programs based amid fertile recruiting sources.”
OSU is a very young team, too. And apparently we should have a heck of a QB battle next year.
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http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11992914/college-football-playoff-alabama-crimson-tide-oregon-ducks-florida-state-seminoles-ohio-state-buckeyes-inaugural-playoff
1. AL
2. OR
3. FSU
4. OSU
5. Baylor
6. TCU
Head to head did end up mattering, they just had to wait for Baylor to play KSU to make the resumes more equal.
Jeff Long said OSU was a clear #4. The lack of a CCG hurt the B12.
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I thought Oregon should have been moved to #1. I think they blowout the best opponent in the bunch, and it would have maintained the Rose Bowl. Surprised the committee didn’t make the change.
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I also thought OR deserved #1 but the committee has been in love with the SEC all year, so I’m not surprised AL didn’t drop.
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Perhaps we can wind up with the actual Rose Bowl, somewhat late and in the wrong location.
There was a Rose Bowl in Durham in ’42 (today being Dec. 7 reminds why).
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Brands count. I believe that what hurt the B12 was that the co-champions were not Texas and Oklahoma. If the B1G champ was MN or IN the B12 would probably be in the playoff with the equally unattractive Baylor or TCU. I do not expect to see the B12 expand because of this; there are still no good candidates.
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Results count more. Brian already laid out how OSU’s results were more impressive because its schedule was much tougher than either TCU’s or Baylor’s.
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Brian already laid out how OSU’s results were more impressive because its schedule was much tougher than either TCU’s or Baylor’s.
Ohio St.’s schedule was certainly tougher than Baylor’s but the statistics don’t back up the claim it was harder than TCU’s.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
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Also
http://www.footballperspective.com/week-fifteen-2014-college-football-srs-ratings-the-final-edition/#more-23049
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frug,
“Ohio St.’s schedule was certainly tougher than Baylor’s but the statistics don’t back up the claim it was harder than TCU’s.”
It depends on the stats you look at. I showed some that say OSU played a harder schedule.
OSU played:
13 games (TCU 12)
13 I-A teams (TCU 11)
9 bowl-eligible teams (TCU 6)
7 winning record teams (TCU 4)
OSU beat:
12 I-A teams averaging 6.7 Ws each (TCU 10 I-A teams averaging 5.4 Ws)
Ranked opponents:
OSU won at #8 MSU, at #25 MN and neutral versus #18 WI.
TCU won at home against #11 KSU and #25 MN but lost at #5 Baylor.
Sagarin gives a slight edge to TCU (42 to 52), but only OSU has a top 10 W. It all depends in how you look at it, I suppose.
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Using Massey’s composite computer rankings, Ohio St.(#4) played 9, 17, 32, 40, 50, 55, 56, 63, 65, 66, 70, 86 and 120.
TCU and Baylor both played 13, 22, 31, 42, 54, 78, 93, 97, 124
TCU also played 6 (Baylor), 32 and an FCS.
Baylor also played 3 (TCU), 109 and an FCS.
The Baylor and TCU schedules were stronger at the top. Ohio St. stronger at the bottom.
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FSU played 12, 21, 24, 34, 36, 41, 43, 52,54, 58, 89, 103 and an FCS. Baylor and TCU are stronger at the top and weaker at the bottom than FSU.
FSU and OSU are comparable at the top, FSU stronger in the middle, OSU stronger at the bottom.
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Opening odds:
AL -9.5 vs OSU
OR – 8.5 vs FSU
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Big12 expansion freakout time
Cincy will be getting a call in the next few minutes, idk who else though
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http://www.si.com/college-football/2014/12/07/michigan-job-jim-harbaugh-nfl-raiders
Jim Harbaugh tells MI he’d rather stay in the NFL.
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I think there is a real possibility that “Bo-Woody” is reborn. I think Mullen somehow ends up there. If not, I think Mi is in good shape this time around – a lot of interest & big names out there.
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One would have to wonder what is going through the minds of Swarbrick and company at ND looking at what not having a CCG will do to their Playoff chances. Unless they go undefeated they will likely always get left out. I would guess that we may see ND finally join a conference in the next 5-10 years.
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Nope, don’t see it. The Domers play lip service to competing for a national title (and sure, they’d like to), but their precious independence is now an integral part of their identity to huge swaths of their fan base. They’d schedule tougher, give up home games, whatever to be attractive to the playoff committee; but pretty much anything except to join a conference.
BTW, playing a CCG wouldn’t have saved FSU if they had actually slipped in one of their many close calls.
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Your other New Year’s Bowls
Cotton
#5 Baylor vs. #8 Michigan St.
Peach
#6 TCU vs. #9 Ole Miss
Orange
#7 Mississippi St. vs. #12 G-Tech
Fiesta
#10 Arizona vs. #20 Boise St.
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Interesting that Sparty went to the Cotton Bowl instead of the Orange Bowl. That actually ups the chance that all eligible Big Ten schools will go bowling. You almost wonder if maybe the Big Ten had something to do with it…
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True, that gets all B10 teams in to bowls. However, if MSU had gone to the Orange, that’s an extra $27.5M vs. an extra $4M (+ $2M for travel expenses) for the B10.
The B10’s bowl slate gets that much tougher as well as each school gets bumped up a slot.
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Richard, I think the Orange is contracted to take the B1G 3 times over the 12 year period. I think the payout is based on the minimum appearance standards. So in the long-run the payouts will even out.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/111512aaa.html
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Kevin,
“Richard, I think the Orange is contracted to take the B1G 3 times over the 12 year period. I think the payout is based on the minimum appearance standards. So in the long-run the payouts will even out.”
The payout is $27.5M every time the B10 appears. Those 12 years equate to 4 semi-finals and 8 Orange Bowls. Of those 8 games, both the SEC and B10 get 3-5 appearances while ND gets 0-2. So the B10 missing out on an early shot to get more than 3 appearances probably does hurt us in the long run. Now we only have 7 chances to appear up to 5 times.
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frug,
“Interesting that Sparty went to the Cotton Bowl instead of the Orange Bowl. That actually ups the chance that all eligible Big Ten schools will go bowling. You almost wonder if maybe the Big Ten had something to do with it…”
The committee moved MS St up past MSU. I think there were several reasons:
1. AL’s big win in the SECCG improved the value of MS St’s close loss to them.
2. Recency bias impacted MS St’s ranking last week, but now that loss to MS is more distant.
3. The voting method. The committee looks at pods of 6 teams at the start of the voting. They rank the first three and put the others back into the pool. Last week MSU was in the group of three above MS St. This week they were in the same group and MSU lost out in a head to head comparison.
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Well d***. The B10 misses out on the big Orange Bowl payday (at least this time around).
Jumping MS St. over MSU is _really_ hard to justify, however. Much harder than jumping tOSU over Baylor & TCU.
What changed in the body of work of the two MSUs between last week and this week?
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The B1G and SEC have a 3 game minimum guarantee, but the other 6 games are up for grabs. If MSU had gotten in the first game that raises the probability that the B1G will have another payday. Are you conceding that the SEC and ND will get 9 appearances? In that case no $$ were lost.
Now the B1G can show it deserved the playoff spot by MSU knocking off Baylor in the Cotton bowl and OSU at least keeping it close against Alabama.
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Mack,
4 of the 12 games will be semi-finals.
Contracted appearances:
B10 3-5
SEC 3-5
ND 0-2
Now there are 7 games left the B10 might make. The odds of getting 5 has dropped.
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Also (and sorry for the triple post) this means that the highest rated team left out in the cold is K-State at #11 who because of the selection rules got passed over by G-Tech and Boise.
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And got beaten out by Arizona who got severely stomped Saturday. Rick Neuheisel was saying the Pac got very favorable rankings by the committee. There is a very heavy Pac influence with Haden, Rice, Willingham and the NCAA bureaucrat.
That also makes the bowls:
Pac, Big 12, B1G, ACC-2 each
SEC-3
MWC-1
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Severely stomped in a 13th game against one of the top 2 teams in the country.
A 13th game that KSU didn’t play. There’s no reason to expect KSU to have done better against UO so I can’t fault the committee for not punishing ‘Zona for having to play the extra game.
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Big 12 commissioner Bowlsby already talking about possibly adding two teams. Personally, I would pick Cincy to give W Va a neighbor. Then I would plant my claim in FL and take either UCF in Orlando or USF in Tampa. I would go with UCF. Either would also be a geographical outlier, but the school which is picked should be thrilled to get out of the AAC and into a P5. Geography should not be an issue.
http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/11993892/big-12-commissioner-bob-bowlsby-says-conference-reconsider-how-declare-champion
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The B12 could also add both FL schools. Even WVU might prefer that to adding Cincy. FL is more important to them for recruiting than OH. Also, if the KS schools and ISU are going to give up trips to TX, they’d want trips to FL to compensate.
From the B10’s perspective, that’d be better as well. A P5 team from another conference sitting in the B10’s most talent-rich state would _not_ be good for recruiting.
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I think they’ll push for CCG deregulation first. That would give them options. Only if deregulation was denied do I think they’d pursue expansion right now. There just aren’t 2 great candidates.
UCF and USF – Adding FL is nice, but USF has no history of success and that’s in weaker conferences. UCF has had at least a little success. Getting teams #4 and 5 in a state won’t get you a ton of fans or coverage, though.
UC and UCF/USF – WV gets a neighbor, but FL is more important than OH to the B12 and WV.
UC and Memphis – good for geography, bad for football. Neither has a huge fan base.
BYU and ? – Not going to happen. At least not for a while. BYU doesn’t want it enough to reduce their demands.
BSU and ? – No. Just no.
I find it hard to believe the B12 really benefits from adding any of these pairs.
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There’s no one available who adds nearly enough.
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The lack of championship game definitely hurt the Big 12 this year, however there will be years where the lack of a title game would help. If OSU or FSU had lost, TCU or Baylor would be in, and we would be saying how the ACC/Big Ten did itself a disservice by hosting a title game.
The Big 12’s real problem is that is has a tiny fanbase. There are two teams that can capture a national audience while the rest of the league has literally no following nationally. I think OSU was more than worthy of inclusion based on its resume, but I’d be hard pressed to believe that the committee didn’t consider the possible blockbuster final four with OSU in vs. a final four with OSU out (and Baylor or TCU in).
The Big 12 is in a precarious position. Aside from Notre Dame, there aren’t any available schools that will increase the league’s national exposure. There is also a risk that adding schools such as UCF or Cincinnati or Memphis, schools that lack prestige, to simply get to 12 and stage a title game, will someday drive Texas or Oklahoma away.
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“…to simply get to 12 and stage a title game, will someday drive Texas or Oklahoma away.”
…to simply get to 12 and stage a title game, will drive Texas, Oklahoma, and others away.
There. Fixed that for you.
As currently constituted the B12 is a shadow of its former self. The proposed additions don’t improve things. Does UT really want to ride herd over BE/B8/SWC/etc. left behinds?
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That’s a little too harsh. But the point remains, is this the company the University (as opposed to the AD) wants/aspires to associate with?
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Particularly since TCU is #6 and WVU is a respectable 7-5 with a 1-3 record against the top 11 teams and only got outscored by a net of 3. And CU is at the bottom of the Pac 12.
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Bullet;
Not sure I understand. I doubt CU’s current FB standing is influencing the admin/academic attitude about their new conference associations. Are you saying TCU, is the academic peer of CU? Or WVU of UNL? Does adding Memphis, Cincy, UCF, etc offset losing aTm and Mizzu?
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If there were two schools available that offset the loss of Mizzou and TAMU, then they would have been replaced.
The conundrum is that given schools available that are a net dilution in conference value per school, if an expansion is necessary, you’d want to expand by no more than the minimum needed … but it may be impossible to arrive at two six school divisions that satisfy enough of the 10 incumbent members to allow a successful expansion vote, while 14 teams, which would only be forced to move three incumbents, one of whom would likely be happy with the new division, implies much more dilution of value per school.
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@cc
I’m talking about competitiveness in football.
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Interesting that one of the reason that the Big XII gave for sticking at 10 was the CCG made it harder to qualify for the national title game. And yet this is the second time in 4 years that not having a CCG cost them a chance to compete for the NCG.
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Alabama didn’t play in a ccg in 2011.
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But if Oklahoma St. had they would have made the NCG.
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More I would say that Ohio St.’s outstanding performance played them in. Baylor beat the #9 team in the country (better than Wisconsin’s #13) and didn’t catch Ohio St.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/college-football-playoff-final-thoughts-and-national-championship-odds/
538’s playoff simulation:
OR / FSU – 65.1% / 34.9%
AL / OSU – 59.2% / 40.8%
Title odds:
OR – 35.4%
AL – 32.1%
OSU – 18.8%
FSU – 13.7%
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I don’t think the Big 12 can expand due to the fact that the money isn’t there to justify it with the options that are on the table.
As Bowlsby said, they’re distributing $25m per team right now. Try to justify expansion candidates for them considering that they don’t have a conference network to monetize territory (if you could find the right schools with territory). It’s impractical.
Now, if they can get that waiver and host a championship game without needing 12, then that’s certainly worth looking into…
Baylor also needs to heavily upgrade their non-conference scheduling.
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. . . or they just go with uneven revenue sharing, with the 2 new schools getting whatever B12 gets extra from adding them.
The B10 got about $24M per year for it’s CCG. The B12 may not get as much, but with inflation, it’s likely around $20M/year. Even if the 2 new schools add nothing else, any 2 of Cincy/Memphis/UCF/USF would take that $10M/year deal in a heartbeat.
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That’s true on the front of the CCG money as a sort of lower-tier payout structure for 2 additional teams but what about other considerations:
1) What would the divisions look like? Or would there not be divisions? (ACC is also applying to not have divisions and just select top 2 teams for CCG).
2) Would it just dilute their schedules and TV ratings to add 2 weaker programs than their average program? Would it result in a worse mix of games for TV to choose from if there are years where some of their current games are switched for other teams. Last year, the Big 12 was the lowest ranked conference of the Power 5 in terms of TV ratings…
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The last is not accurate. That was a flawed analysis. It compared an average of 9 games per school for the Big 12 to 6 or 7 games for the others (and also excluded the ABC regional games which are the highest rated games for everyone not named the SEC). When you factor that out, the Big 12 was 3rd.
So that analysis effectively compared the top 6 or 7 games for every SEC school to the 2nd through 7th or 8th for the ACC, B1G and Pac and the 2nd through 10th for the Big 12. Not surprisingly that showed a gigantic gap between the SEC and everyone else and showed the Big 12 last.
The Big 12 had more nationally rated games because the bottom games for the others were on conference networks or syndicated and those games didn’t get rated. The Big 12 had those types of games on FS1 and they normally drew about a 0.2 rating.
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Well, this iwas what Alan posted earlier:
“TV ratings (3.0 or higher) updated through week 13.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Week 13: 3.6 (ABC) BC/FSU or Wisc/Iowa
Week 12: 6.4 (CBS at 3:30p) Miss St/Bama; 5.4 (ABC at 8p) FSU/Miami; 3.7 (ABC at noon) Ohio St/Minnesota
Updated Network scorecard: (11) ABC; (9) CBS; (4) ESPN; (1) FOX
Updated Conference scorecard: (25) SEC; (12) ACC; (10) B1G; (5) Pac-12; (2) Big XII and ND.
”
So the B12 doesn’t have the games at the top end of the ratings spectrum either.
Week 14 also doesn’t help:
7.4 13.53M 7:45 PM Auburn/Alabama ESPN
4.9 8.23M 12:00 PM Michigan/Ohio State ABC
3.5 5.96M 3:30 PM Florida/FSU ESPN
3.1 5.16M 3:30 PM Mississippi St./Mississippi CBS
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He was referring to that analysis by the Aggie last year.
The point is, to use arbitrary numbers for an example, if you average 1.7 over 6 games and add in 3 0.2 games, it drops you to 1.2. So your 1.2 looks worse, but if the guys with a 1.5 add in their bottom 3 games (also around a 0.2), they would be down to 1.1.
I don’t know how the ratings stack up this year. Just skimming them and seeing FSU’s ratings probably pushes the ACC up to 3, but the Pac stays in 5. The Pac isn’t doing much in the Fox games.
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Not super thrilled with this announcement.
http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2014/12/06/madison-square-garden-hosts-big-ten-tournament-2018
I don’t mind that they are holding the Big Ten tourney at MSG, but they are doing the week before selection Sunday kind of sucks. I always liked that the Big Ten made the selection committee wait until they were done playing to announce the seedings.
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Instead, I’d kind of like it if they saved a couple regular season games till after the tournament. Doesn’t sound like they are going to (if they even can), but the Big Ten championship is decided in the regular season (as opposed to the tournament title) so why not have everyone with 1-2 games after the tournament that might decide Big Ten champs?
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They certainly could do whatever they like.
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Schools that want to play could well set up an OOC game at that time … some of the midmajor conferences also finish playing the week prior, so there would be potential opponents.
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An unofficial Big-10 v. MVC challenge might be nice as a Tuesday or Wednesday treat; the easterly schools might duck out with no hard feelings and play the likes of Drexel, George Mason, and that new giant-slayer NJIT.
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Here are a few thoughts on the Big XII’s dilemma:
1) I strongly doubt that they are going to do a knee-jerk expansion. The playoff system this year did not work in their favor. There’s no evidence that it will do so annually. If FSU had lost any one of the half-dozen games it was on the cusp of losing, it would’ve been the ACC on the outside looking in. Sometimes, you just get unlucky. Obviously, a 4-team playoff involving 5 leagues is always going to leave someone crying foul.
2) Expansion is a permanent decision, and you need to be really sure you’re getting it right. There’s a distinct lack of sexy options for the Big XII. Besides the obvious problem of having two more mouths to feed (possibly solvable with unequal revenue distribution), there are scheduling concerns. Right now, everyone gets to play the Texas and Oklahoma schools. There’s no way to expand without several teams getting a distinctly worse regular-season schedule than they play today.
3) If the current CCG rules survive, there’s also the problem of the divisional split. Texas and Oklahoma want to keep their regular-season rivalry. But any division containing the two of them is going to seem unbalanced, assuming (as is likely) that the Longhorns will eventually return to their traditional strength. There are ways around this issue, all of which have different drawbacks.
4) Because of this, I think the Big XII will not expand until it finds out if CCG de-regulation passes. Last I heard, the ACC and Big XII were sponsoring the rule change, and they claimed no other P5 conference opposed it. If this is true, I would consider it a lock to pass. But that was months ago. Whether it passes or not, they might as well wait until they know the rules they’ll be playing under.
5) The Big XII could improve its non-conference scheduling. Look at some of the clown-show opponents that Baylor has scheduled in future years, including a game in 2019 against the University of the Incarnate Word. I didn’t even know they played football there.
6) The Committee’s decision to release interim results throughout the season is looking a lot less attractive. I can see why they did this; there is a certain logic to it. Who ever heard of a sports competition in which no one knows who’s ahead until after it’s over? But TCU’s three-step demotion has raised a lot of eyebrows, as in the traditional polls, no team ever suffered such a huge drop after winning its last game by more than 50 points. The Committee’s final rankings are certainly defensible without resorting to corrupt explanations (e.g., that they were following the money by choosing Ohio State). But if a team can drop at the last minute from 3rd to 6th, despite doing everything under its control to prove its case, the interim rankings are meaningless.
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I think the Big 12 should add NJIT. Too soon, Marc? 🙂
Seriously, I agree than knee-jerk expansion is not a wise move, but there is the flip side that this could happen again, and inaction runs the risk of a repeat occurrence. There are some passable candidates out there that, while not sexy and probably not money-makers, might not be money losers (BYU, Cincy, Memphis is Fred Smith of FedEx writes huge sponsorship checks and such). I imagine ESPN would be amenable to helping to get BYU in the B1g 12, as it would only increase the caliber of game ESPN would get from its BYU tv deal (assuming the known sticking points regarding Sunday competition are dealt with), and Cincy (or even Memphis) would give WVU a closer in conference rival (obviously, Cincy is much closer than Memphis, but both are closer than any other current B12 member).
Marc makes a good point re: divisions, but I think the other conferences will agree to loosen the divisional requirement before they agree to reduce the 12 team requirement (the latter not at all in their self-interest, the former potentially is).
My bottom line–I don’t know if the B12 would want to run the risk of this happening again. Even with decidedly non-sexy expansion options, I think the least bad option is to expand to 12 with 2 of BYU/Cincy/Memphis. Memphis does the least from a football brand prospective, but Fred Smith, FedEx CEO and Memphis booster could very easily write checks to ease any B12 resistance (generous sponsorship of B12 championship games, for starters).
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At least Incarnate Word will be in their 8th season of football. Alabama, a year off an MNC, played Georgia State in 2010 in their first year of football.
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If 1. the change in by-laws to allow CCGs to have non-division formats is denied (not allowed), and 2. the field of expansion candidates is found wanting (which I would say with 90+% certainty it is), what would be the permissibility of allowing the Big XII regular season champion to play a “pre-postseason game” with either of independents BYU, Notre Dame, or highest ranked of a G5 not locked into a conference championship game. This would take place the same weekend as the larger conference’s CCGs. This means the BXII schedule concludes at Thanksgiving weekend and we would have seen a December 6th game of Baylor hosting (or at the Alamodome) either BYU, Cincy, or ECU (next year the AAC will have a CCG, but not this past season).
BYU would totally dig this, but Notre Dame may be Notre Dame and could reason that a pre-postseason game could hurt their chances at the final 4. But couldnt a lack of a 13th game plus committee recent-ism (e.g. other team’s performances in their CCG a la Ohio State) diminish the chance that a hypothetical 0 or 1 loss team without a CCG opportunity makes the 4?
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No chance.
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Some observations:
1. I continue to dislike the NCAA rule requiring 12 teams for a playoff. My disgust is that the NCAA should not have authority over this (and the requirement for divisions), and I wish the conferences would push back on this. Anything to diminish NCAA power is good in my book.
2. The B12 should not be so quick to expand and create a playoff. I long thought that the B10 benefited during the BCS era from not having a title game because it allowed them two teams in many years. Had two of the 4 playoff teams lost (which many thought at least possible), then the B12 would have ended up with 2 teams in the playoff system. Of course, that is probably going to be an anomaly for the B12, but still worth mentioning.
3. OSU was deserving of the final spot, but being OSU and from the B10 was a huge factor. Going into the weekend, I was hoping for an AL and OSU loss just to see the long-term political reaction to the B10 and the SEC being left out of the inaugural playoff. Going forward we should simply expect that the power programs, particularly from the B10 and SEC, will almost always get every benefit of any doubt. The playoff system is still a business and must still attract ratings.
4. I expect the Sugar Bowl to play to a very packed house. It features two of the most storied programs in history. AL is playing almost a home game. OSU travels well and has a huge alumni base to pull from. But it will be interesting to see what the crowd is for the Rose Bowl. Will FSU travel? Can Oregon bring in enough fans – and if they do will it just be an Oregon home game? I would have preferred to see OSU-Oregon in Rose Bowl preserving B10 – P10 matchup and AL and FSU in Sugar Bowl allowing both teams travel opportunities at Sugar Bowl. Arguably, it would have pitted #1 v. #4 and #2 v. #3 anyway. My worry is that a crowd for one of these games will not be very good (probably not this year) because fans don’t travel to the semi’s in the hopes of going to the finals. Part of what makes college football great is the atmosphere. One day, we will get a semi with less than great atmosphere. Maybe that doesn’t matter much – time will tell.
5. If TCU and Baylor win big and OSU ends up winning the title – will there be any lingering controversy? I expect so. The playoff was to reduce controversy, but controversy makes college football great – IMO.
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Re #5, that controversy would be magnified if both any 2 of the 4 semifinal teams get beat by more than 50 points.
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I have a bad feeling that the outcome of the 7:30p OSU-Alabama game will be decided before the outcome of the 4:00p Oregon-FSU game (that is, if the starting time of the OSU game is not delayed if the Rose Bowl goes into extended OTs)
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I think they will both be blowouts.
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SH,
“1. I continue to dislike the NCAA rule requiring 12 teams for a playoff.”
Fair enough. I think they should abolish CCGs.
“My disgust is that the NCAA should not have authority over this (and the requirement for divisions), and I wish the conferences would push back on this. Anything to diminish NCAA power is good in my book.”
The NCAA is the governing body for college athletics for these schools. Why shouldn’t they have control over this? Especially since it’s an organization made up of it’s members so it’s really the schools that decided to make this rule.
“3. OSU was deserving of the final spot, … Going forward we should simply expect that the power programs, particularly from the B10 and SEC, will almost always get every benefit of any doubt.”
What benefit of the doubt? You started off by saying OSU deserved it.
“The playoff system is still a business and must still attract ratings.”
The committee has absolutely zero financial incentive to pick one team over another. ESPN has the financial incentive but they have no say in the CFP rankings.
“My worry is that a crowd for one of these games will not be very good (probably not this year) because fans don’t travel to the semi’s in the hopes of going to the finals. Part of what makes college football great is the atmosphere. One day, we will get a semi with less than great atmosphere. Maybe that doesn’t matter much – time will tell.”
Playoffs are all about TV money. Fans are irrelevant.
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The NCAA limits schools to 12 games just as they limit the season in every sport. The ccg is a special exception for a 13th game. They absolutely should regulate it. And they should continue only to allow it for conferences that can’t play a round robin. Presidents would have to be totally tone deaf (O’Bannon, etc.) to approve such a change with no justification other than $.
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With the AL/OSU matchup, along with the prime time kickoff, this is the year for the Sugar to pull a better rating than the Rose.
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No doubt. I’m really curious to see the atmosphere at the Rose Bowl.
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I’m a little surprised they didn’t flip Alabama and Oregon for a traditional Rose bowl.
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Pingback: College Football Playoff and Big 12 Expansion Rumors: Cincinnati and… Memphis? | FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT
Out of the seventy-some odd teams in the bowls, of course Rice draws the only one with a losing record.
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Would you have preferred a UAB team that is shutting down at the end of the season?
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And Rice gets Hawaii.
Are you upset you didn’t get the Bahamas?
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Not really upset. Would have preferred a bowl I could actually go to. But the team will have a good trip. And it’s the only game in its time slot so should get a decent tv crowd. But playing a team with a losing record is kind of odd.
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