Ever since the Big 12 decided to not propose to anyone after its Bachelor-esque expansion process back in the fall of last year, we have had one of the deadest periods in conference realignment news of any substance in this century. At least for the Power Five conferences, the world has entered into an era of stability. Until some combination of Texas, Oklahoma and/or Kansas decides that they no longer want to stay in the Big 12, it’s difficult to see much movement in the near future at the Power Five level.
However, the stability at the top has allowed for the non-power conferences to reassess their own long-term plans. The American Athletic Conference was the league that was most at risk in the Big 12 expansion process with Houston, Cincinnati and UConn being heavily discussed as potential invites. Now that the Big 12 has given the AAC a reprieve, the Group of Five league’s members know that they’re legitimately in this particular home for the long haul whether they like it or not. As a result, this is the first time since the AAC was formed in the wake of the collapse of the old Big East football conference that its member schools are truly looking at their respective futures within the AAC as opposed to outside of it.
Over the past few weeks, there have been an increasing number of reports from various outlets that the AAC is interested in adding current Missouri Valley Conference school Wichita State as a non-football member*, culminating in a report from Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated from this past Saturday that the AAC and Wichita State are engaged in expansion talks with mutual interest.
(* A pet peeve of mine in conference realignment stories is when there’s a reference to “basketball-only” membership since it wrongly implies that a school is being added only for basketball. Instead, such school is being added for all sports for which the league sponsors except for football, which is why it is really a “non-football member.)
I’ll be honest: I have been a long-time skeptic of both the AAC wanting to add non-football members and Wichita State’s chances of escaping the MVC. On the AAC side, the divide between the old Big East’s football and non-football schools was a major factor in the eventual dissolution of that league and the memories of how the Catholic 7 (Georgetown, Villanova, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence, Marquette and DePaul) split off to form the current Big East have still been fresh. From the Wichita State angle, they always seemed to be a classic fan favorite for expansion based on on-the-court performance but not a university president favorite with respect to academics and TV markets (similar to Boise State football). Interestingly, unlike most non-power conference schools, Wichita State actually didn’t have an issue with financial resources. When Shocker basketball coach Gregg Marshall was being courted by Alabama a couple of years ago, Charles Koch (most well-known with his brother David as the duo in charge of Koch Industries and arguably the most powerful and influential fundraisers for the Republican Party and conservative causes) spearheaded a group of boosters to make Marshall one of the 10 highest-paid coaches in the country. However, the stances of the AAC and MWC to not add non-football schools (at least up until apparently now) and the lack of institutional and geographic fits with the Big East, Atlantic 10 and West Coast Conference meant that the MVC was looking like Wichita State’s only realistic choice.
As a result, the AAC backing off of its stance against non-football members will end up being a Godsend for Wichita State assuming that this proposed expansion is finalized. Wichita State was going to have to start looking at initiating an FBS football program in order to find a different league… and even if they were to do that, it would have been no guarantee that they would have received an invite from the Sun Belt (much less the AAC or MWC). The fact that the Shockers are in position to be able to get into the AAC without needing to go through the extremely risky and expensive process of starting up an FBS football team is everything that the school could have possibly wished for outside of a non-football invite to a Power Five conference.
For the AAC’s part, the proposed addition of Wichita State indicates that football can no longer be the only conference realignment consideration for leagues that are outside of the Power Five world. The Group of Five leagues are earning less TV money with both football and basketball than the new Big East is with just basketball alone, which shows that a strong college basketball brand still has value in the marketplace compared to a weaker college football brand. Even if TV money isn’t taken into account, the Group of Five leagues are inherently going to be more reliant on revenue from NCAA Tournament credits (which rise when each conference member advances a round in the Big Dance) compared to the Power Five leagues since those basketball dollars are going to be a larger share for them compared to College Football Playoff dollars. Indeed, Thamel and others have pointed out that Wichita State won’t likely add much to the value of the AAC’s TV contract, but it can certainly drive a lot of conference revenue in the form of winning games in the NCAA Tournament (which earns additional credits).
So, several years after hybrid conferences were declared by the public at-large to be dead, it’s possible that those league formats could be making a comeback. The Mountain West Conference would certainly look better if it could add this year’s national runner-up Gonzaga, although the West Coast Conference is in a much stronger position to protect its membership due to the presence of BYU and the uniform institutional fit of all members being private schools in the West (similar to the Big East on the other side of the country). (Personally, I don’t believe that the WCC is poachable unless the Big East to decide to go waaaaaaay outside of its current geographic footprint.) In terms of the prospects for other recent NCAA Tournament darlings, Florida Gulf Coast has had the Shocker-esque problem of being a non-football school that’s a geographic outlier, but they could fit really well with Conference USA if that league were to entertain a hybrid membership again. Plus, FGCU is located in the Fort Myers-Naples market that is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country and a massive amount of wealth due to its significant snowbird population with little direct spectator sports competition.
Meanwhile, the single act of Wichita State leaving the MVC for the AAC can have a significant ripple effect throughout the non-football Division I conferences. When Creighton left for the new Big East in 2013, the MVC looked heavily at replenishing its membership with Illinois-Chicago (UIC) and Valparaiso from the Horizon League prior to settling upon Loyola University Chicago. My impression is that the MVC will look at both UIC and Valpo again since strengthening that league’s Chicago area presence is likely a top priority for that league’s presidents. While MVC fans might prefer to add better on-the-court options that might be located in smaller markets (such as Murray State, South Dakota State or North Dakota State), there’s a much bigger picture in play here: the MVC schools themselves cannot survive without as many tuition-paying students from the Chicago area specifically as possible. With public school budgets getting slashed and private university enrollments falling outside of the elite tier, the competition for tuition dollars is only getting tougher as the number of college students declines overall. Illinois has turned into the largest net exporter of students to out-of-state colleges of any state in the country. The three biggest beneficiaries of this net outflow from Illinois just happen to be the states of Iowa, Indiana and Missouri… which happen to form the MVC footprint along with Illinois itself. In essence, the Chicagoland area is to general student recruiting as the state of Texas is to football recruiting and the MVC schools need to keep growing their share of that pool. Therefore, the MVC gaining even a handful of extra impressions per year in the Chicago region by playing a school like UIC can be critical to, say, Drake and Evansville (much less in-state Illinois schools like Bradley, Illinois State and Southern Illinois). The MVC is going to be a one-bid league going forward if Wichita State leaves no matter who it can realistically add (e.g. adding A-10 schools such as St. Louis and Dayton is NOT realistic), so the leadership of that league is likely going to focus much more on off-the-court factors compared to on-the-court performance. That also means that it would be a bit surprising if the MVC decided to replace Wichita State with multiple schools to go up to 12 members (as keeping the membership total at 10 would maximize per school payouts of NCAA Tournament and other conference-level revenue).
If the MVC poaches from the Horizon League, that could put schools like IUPUI (from the Summit League) or Belmont (from the Ohio Valley Conference) in play as targets. It will be interesting to see just how much realignment will ultimately occur throughout the Division I ranks simply based on Wichita State being added as a non-football member to the AAC.
What impact does all of these potential moves have on the Power Five conferences? We’ll have more on that soon.
Follow @frankthetank111(Image from Business Insider)
FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT 
Hawkeyes first in the Big Ten West.
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Thanks for the new post!!!
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Hook ’em
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Why was there never (to the best of my knowledge) an official B1G announcement with the speciific terms of the new television contract?
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dreg33,
“Why was there never (to the best of my knowledge) an official B1G announcement with the speciific terms of the new television contract?”
I’d guess it’s:
1. The B10 is a private entity that likes to keep business details private. They won’t release the details because they don’t have to.
and/or
2. The final deal isn’t actually 100% completed yet. It doesn’t technically start until 7/1/17 so they may still be finalizing minute details. Remember, they have to get ESPN and Fox to agree on the details of how all the sharing and scheduling works, and tripartite negotiations go much slower.
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The final deal isn’t actually 100% completed yet.
From reports I’ve seen, I believe this is why.
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Would the benefits of adding a UIC outweigh the potential increase in UIC’s own ability to keep kids at home? UIC is a bit of a slumbering giant; a semi-respectable school with a med school and good facilities. If their athletics ever became even halfway decent they might see some real growth and stop some of those Chicago students from leaving the state.
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I just think even with improved athletics, continued gentrification, and higher ranked professional programs, UIC is not going to be a draw for many of those students who are more likely seeking a bucolic setting plus P5/G5 athletic atmosphere. It would be interesting to see if the increase in foreign student acceptance has had a ripple affect of “well-to-do suburban” Illinois students going to schools in neighboring states and further south (e.g. SEC, CUSA, AAC) – the well heeled out of state student serves the same function financially as a fully-sponsored foreign student.
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I’ve long believed that a major issue in stemming the tide of students leaving the State of Illinois is that there is such a dramatic drop-off in academic reputation from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign to the other in-state public schools (e.g. UIC, Illinois State, Northern Illinois, etc.). Indiana has both IU and Purdue and Iowa has both the University of Iowa and Iowa State despite being much smaller population states.
Now, I do think someone that wants P5-type atmosphere isn’t going to find it at UIC. UIC’s peers are more along the lines of Temple as opposed to UCLA when it comes to urban public institutions. That being said, UIC’s location in the West Loop in Chicago is now turning out to be a major asset (as it has transformed from what was a down-trodden neighborhood 25 years ago into a highly gentrified area that is home to one of the best concentration of restaurants and art galleries in the country and is home to Google’s Chicago offices and will soon be the site of the world headquarters of McDonald’s). One big challenge that isn’t easily fixed is that the campus itself isn’t very aesthetically appealing with a predominance of 1960s-era Brutalist architecture (e.g. built during an age when everyone was obsessed with protection from nuclear war with the Soviet Union).
Still, it would be great for the state of Illinois to have UIC to turn into the equivalent of say, UC-Irvine or UC-San Diego (if not UCLA). The research prowess is there and UIC is strong in STEM fields, in particular. (Note that I’ll admit that I’m biased since both of my parents went to and met at UIC while my father worked there for most of his career.) I only wish the best for UIC and it’s important for the state to have a second high quality public university option in any circumstance.
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Isn’t part of the issue the number of quality private schools in IL of decent size (plus Notre Dame)? With NW, UChicago, DePaul, IIT, Bradley, etc, there are a lot of quality schools in IL that just happen to be private and are reasonably large. Outside of Notre Dame (and they are almost part of Chicago), IN and IA don’t have as much of that.
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South Bend’s in the middle of the northern border on the Michigan/Indiana line. I, personally, have never thought of them as an Illinois school, but they do have number of alums in Chicago. Then again, so does Michigan, MSU, tOSU & Wisconsin.
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I think many think of ND as a Chicago school. About an hour drive and within the Chicago TV and radio markets.
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Wilson Roberts,
“South Bend’s in the middle of the northern border on the Michigan/Indiana line. I, personally, have never thought of them as an Illinois school, but they do have number of alums in Chicago. Then again, so does Michigan, MSU, tOSU & Wisconsin.”
People in the area don’t think of them that way, but many ND students and alumni do if you talk to them. Especially people from out of the region. Only about 1/3 of ND students are midwesterners. Many from the east coast and elsewhere would rather be associated with Chicago than flyover country.
Kevin,
“I think many think of ND as a Chicago school. About an hour drive and within the Chicago TV and radio markets.”
Exactly.
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@Brian – Agreed. Notre Dame is definitely along with lines of a “Chicago school”, which is distinct from being an “Illinois school”. Chicagoland crosses state lines and has about as strong of a city/region identity as you can get, whereas Illinois overall has a fairly weak state identity. Very few people from the Chicago area would ever say that they’re from Illinois (at least as a first-line identifier): they’d virtually always say that they’re from Chicago as their primary identity.
At the same time, ND specifically has always been treated as a home team in the Chicago media at the same level as or even more than Illinois, Northwestern or any other in-state school. Notre Dame is a “local school” for Chicagoans in a way that, say, Purdue and Wisconsin aren’t even though their campuses aren’t much farther from the city than South Bend.
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Our debate seems to be more about what Alumni (including subway) like to be associated with vs. the condition that actually exists. There are more ND “bars” in Boston than Boston College and it’s not because BC fans are all at the game on Saturdays in the fall. In fact, there are more Michigan, Michigan St. & Wisconsin bars as well. That’s said, Boston is an ND city, thanks mainly to the preponderance of its very tribal Irish & Roman Catholic population — also due to the lack of any real college program outside of what BC was during Flutie or Harvard was a century ago. It’s a fairly obvious statement to say that there’s a desire to be closer to Chicago than Elkhart, Kalamazoo or (God forbid) Gary which lies directly between Chicago and South Bend. I’d like to say I live on the ocean and compared to someone living in Nebraska I practically do, but I still have to drive 20 minutes to get to a decent beach. Is Chicago more of an ND town than Boston? Absolutely, but short of Elon Musk building his first hyperloop from Chicago to South Bend, wishing and desire of alums and fans for proximity doesn’t make it so.
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Agree with everything you said. My question though was whether accepting UIC into the MVC could inadvertently hurt the other MVC schools that desire more Chicago students by increasing UIC’s stature? In other words, would Drake and Missouri State be losing potential students to a more popular UIC? Or would just being associated with a quality Chicago school bring them more exposure and interest?
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singlewhitealcoholicseekssame,
“Agree with everything you said. My question though was whether accepting UIC into the MVC could inadvertently hurt the other MVC schools that desire more Chicago students by increasing UIC’s stature? In other words, would Drake and Missouri State be losing potential students to a more popular UIC? Or would just being associated with a quality Chicago school bring them more exposure and interest?”
UIC is big enough that people in Chicago already know about it. I don’t think joining the MVC would have any significant impact on their student recruitment. There might be an impact on athletic recruitment (would a Chicagoland athlete prefer to stay local?) but I don’t think it’ll do much for regular students.
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I don’t think it’s a matter of “knowing about” UIC, but more of a lesser version of the Flutie Effect. Right now UIC is a lousy athletic department in a conference that can’t even be described as mid-major. But if they were to join a mid-major conference and have some moderate level of success, that could entice more Chicago kids to stay home. I’m not talking about kids picking UIC over Iowa or Purdue or Missouri, but the kinds of kids that might prefer an Indiana State and MVC sports to a UIC and Horizon sports. I honestly don’t know the answer, that’s why I asked.
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@singlewhitealcoholicseekssame – Let’s put it this way: there is such a high net outflow from Illinois as of now that UIC increasing its profile among in-state students can very easily happen simultaneously with other MVC schools increasing their own respective profiles in the state.
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singlewhitealcoholicseekssame,
“But if they were to join a mid-major conference and have some moderate level of success, that could entice more Chicago kids to stay home. I’m not talking about kids picking UIC over Iowa or Purdue or Missouri, but the kinds of kids that might prefer an Indiana State and MVC sports to a UIC and Horizon sports.”
I just don’t think that’s a major deciding factor for most students. I think concerns like being in Chicago versus not are much bigger factors. Many kids want to get away from home while others want to live in a big city for a while.
“I honestly don’t know the answer, that’s why I asked.”
I don’t either, I’m just giving my guesses.
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For a look into the college choices for one Chicago area high school, here is the Class of 2015 college matriculation data for New Trier High School:
http://www.newtrier.k12.il.us/Administration/About/Documents/Profile_Class_of_2015/
Note that New Trier is on Chicago’s North Shore and arguably the wealthiest and most elite open enrollment high school in the country (which is distinguished from selective admissions magnet and private schools). When the national news media (not just local) needs to write a story about a “wealthy public high school”, it often uses New Trier as a basis in the same way that there’s a disproportionate focus on Harvard in news stories about elite colleges. So, there’s going to be a bit of a skew in that this is a very high achieving and wealthy student body. On the other hand, it’s also a pretty good reflection of where students from the Chicago area choose to go when they have good grades and test scores and don’t have to worry much about financial aid. Plus, New Trier is such a large high school (over 4000 students) that it provides a substantial data set.
Page 13 of the PDF file is pretty fascinating since it shows all of the colleges that matriculated more than 5 New Trier Class of 2015 graduates (along with comparing the matriculation of Class of 2014 graduates). It also shows the distribution of where those graduates attended depending on how many of the hardest-to-easiest level academic classes they took during their high school careers. Finally, there’s a breakdown of how many Class of 2015 grads matriculated in each of the Division I college conferences.
Not surprisingly, the University of Illinois had the most grads (84), with Indiana (46), Michigan (38) and Northwestern (32) being the next 3 top destinations. Miami of Ohio (27) is actually next and just ahead of Iowa (23). UIC got 20 students… but so did the University of Colorado. The same number of students (9) went to Kansas and Arizona as they did to Southern Illinois University at Carbondale. None of the other in-state public universities are even listed, which meant they all matriculated fewer than 5 New Trier grads. Even taking into account that this is a wealthy school, that’s pretty shocking to me considering the names of some of the schools listed with at least 5 grads that are nowhere near the Midwest (e.g. Lewis & Clark College, Elon, Vermont). Regardless, this is some insight to the choices being made by a critical mass of students that have a lot of options both academically and financially.
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“Miami of Ohio (27) is actually next and just ahead of Iowa (23).”
That’s not surprising to me … MiamiU had a heavy Chicago contingent back in the 80’s, and I’ve gathered that it hasn’t changed much.
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The popularity of Wisconsin versus Purdue within the greater Chicago area tends to be correlated to actual distance, where alumni settled and also dominant industry/employer. This means Wisconsin gets a lot of love North of I-88 and Purdue’s nation extends no further than mid-DuPage Count sweeping through the more affluent parts of Kane, Kendall, Will into Orland and the tied-into-“Region” South suburbs.
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@urbanleftbehind – That’s very true. I went to high school in the Chicago South Suburbs (Homewood-Flossmoor) and we had a much larger contingent go my class end up at Purdue (along with Indiana and Iowa) compared to Wisconsin. Now, that was (gasp!) 20 years ago and I do think Wisconsin’s general academic and atmospheric reputation throughout the Chicago area and nationwide seems to have grown since that time. New Trier’s large Michigan contingent is on the very high end for Chicago area schools. While Michigan is still a popular out-of-state option for Illinois students, its sky high out-of-state tuition cost has pushed a lot of students that would have gone to Ann Arbor in my generation looking for that quintessential college town experience over to Wisconsin today. I see that where I live now in Naperville (where it’s essentially equidistant geographically between Wisconsin, Purdue and Iowa).
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The report says 272 students went to B10 schools and that all 14 schools had at least 1. There were 8 B10 schools with at least 5 students that combined for 261 students, leaving 11 students to spread over the rest (NE, PU, OSU, PSU, RU, UMD).
It’s a reminder how relatively weak the connection is between Chicago and OSU. OSU has 9400 alumni in DC/NoVA, 9100 in NYC, 7900 in eastern TX (Dallas, Austin, Houston) and 6800 in Los Angeles compared to 8600 in Chicago. For whatever reason, OSU alumni don’t go to Chicago.
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@Brian – I do find that to be a bit strange with Ohio State being such a massive high profile Big Ten school. It’s not as if though Chicago area students don’t like heading to Ohio itself as evidenced by the large number of kids going to Miami of Ohio and even tiny Kenyon and Denison. If I were running Ohio State’s admissions office, I’d be investing quite a bit in trying to get more Chicago area students since there’s no real logical reason why they’re going to a place like Mizzou in large numbers but not OSU (where Columbia is actually farther from Chicago than Columbus). That would be a ton of low-hanging fruit for out-of-state tuition-paying students with solid academic credentials.
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To Frank’s point, I did feel a bit of a pioneer when I decided to go to tOSU for my grad program 22 years ago. That was when it was all Michigan and ND plus IU, Iowa, MSU (north side Trixie-land) and Wiscy/Purdue depending on where you were in the suburbs. Columbus was an hour closer to where I lived (SE Side of Chicago) than the bulk of area residents. My cousins went to H.S. with Mike Tomczak, I think a large wall poster he gave to one of them piqued my interest to the point I started following their football.
At the time, their undergrads were either content to stay in Ohio (this was the era of “The Flats”) or go directly to Sun Belt areas. The interest in the east coast and Chicago started at the turn of the current century. As far as Chicago-area students not being interested, OSU lacked the academic cache of UM/UW/IU/IA and also was known to have a bad bureaucracy and was too crowded a campus (both factors led many undergrads to stay a minumum 5 years or even more).
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Frank the Tank,
“@Brian – I do find that to be a bit strange with Ohio State being such a massive high profile Big Ten school. It’s not as if though Chicago area students don’t like heading to Ohio itself as evidenced by the large number of kids going to Miami of Ohio and even tiny Kenyon and Denison. If I were running Ohio State’s admissions office, I’d be investing quite a bit in trying to get more Chicago area students since there’s no real logical reason why they’re going to a place like Mizzou in large numbers but not OSU (where Columbia is actually farther from Chicago than Columbus). That would be a ton of low-hanging fruit for out-of-state tuition-paying students with solid academic credentials.”
Click to access report.pdf
Some OSU stats (class of 2016):
Ohio students – 5311 (67%)
Other US – 1726 (22%)
Foreign – 848 (11%)
Top US states after OH:
1. IL
2. NY
3. PA
4. CA
5. NJ
6. MI
7. MD
8. FL
9. VA
10. TX
11. IN
So OSU does get a decent number of IL students, but almost as many from NY or PA. If you’ll note, OSU seems to get a lot more interest from the east (NY, PA, NJ, MD, VA all in top 10) than the west or south. The sources of students may be changing as OSU’s reputation improves, so maybe the number from IL is rising.
It may be that students from Chicago are less interested in attending school in a city of 2M people. They may want either a major metropolis (Chicago, NYC, LA) or a smaller town for a change of pace.
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With Navy being a football-only member of the AAC, it makes perfect sense to add a non-football member for scheduling purposes as well.
Joining the AAC may also help Wichita State revive its once proud baseball program. Gene Stephenson was one of the giants of the game. He coached the Shockers for 35 years, winning one CWS title, finishing as runner-up three times (twice to my LSU Tigers in 91 & 93), and making seven CWS appearances between 82 and 96.
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Alan, I expressed the same sentiment about Wichita’s baseball program at the end of the previous posting, noting that it can go into a number of the AAC’s markets for talent as well.
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The problem the Horizon has in replacing Illinois-Chicago is that no schools in the footprint match the investment level or fan support of the league. IUPUI, Omaha, UMKC are all woefully underfunded and have minimal support. The league has not much to offer the Dakota schools. Belmont turned down the MVC, as did Denver, and it’s hard to see them prefer the Horizon. Other schools have football considerations, which even at FCS levels can complicate things (SF Austin, Murray, NMSU)
I don’t see a fit at this time where the interest would be mutual. I think they are going to sit on 9 for awhile until somebody emerges, or they get raided of a couple more schools, forcing them to lower their standards simply to survive – but I don’t see that threat at this time.
Bottom line, realignment will likely stop at Wichita State to the American, Illinois-Chicago to the MVC.
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Can you go over to Holy Land of Hoops and tell these guys adding Gonzaga isn’t just an easy sure fire thing?
BTW adding WSU as a 12th member to offset Navy is a very smart move. Long Beach State would be a great 12th school in the MWC to balance Hawaii FB.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19086433/penn-state-trustee-al-lord-quits-election-sandusky-comments
Al Lord, the PSU trustee who was running for re-election by alumni has dropped out of the race after his comments about Sandusky’s victims became public. He claims it’s unrelated to his comments, but the election is coming up and he just dropped out.
A Penn State University trustee who told a publication he was “running out of sympathy” for people he described as “so-called victims” of Jerry Sandusky said Wednesday he is no longer seeking a second term on the board.
…
Lord, elected in 2014, has been part of a group of nine alumni-elected trustees who have clashed with other board members about how the university has responded to the scandal involving Sandusky, the school’s retired defensive football coach now in prison on a child molestation conviction.
“I’ll continue to work with you guys,” Lord told other alumni candidates. “I’m just not sitting through any more of those meetings.”
…
He released a statement several days ago to the Daily Collegian, the Penn State student newspaper, apologizing for “any pain the comment may have caused actual victims.”
Anthony Lubrano, a fellow alumni-elected trustee and Lord ally, said Lord told him the decision not to seek another term was not related to his comments to the Chronicle.
“Of course I’m disappointed,” said Lubrano, who deferred comment on Lord’s comments regarding Sandusky victims. “Al was the most cerebral member of the board. He’ll be missed.”
It’s unclear whether Lord’s name will appear on board election ballots that will start going out Monday. A university spokeswoman said Wednesday that vendors will have to be alerted soon to change the ballots. The election runs through May 4.
…
Lord was a strong supporter of Spanier and attended his trial. He told the Chronicle he wondered why Sandusky victims “were so prominent in trial.”
Only one Sandusky victim testified at Spanier’s trial, a young man who said he had been abused in a team shower by Sandusky after the 2001 shower incident that Spanier and other top administrators handled.
Two of Spanier’s former lieutenants, former university vice president Gary Schultz and former athletic director Tim Curley, struck plea deals on the eve of their trials to misdemeanor child endangerment and testified for the prosecution.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19095168/top-penn-state-board-members-ira-lubert-mark-dambly-urge-trustee-al-lord-quit
The chair and vice-chair of the PSU BoT want Lord to resign over his comments.
Chairman Ira Lubert and vice chairman Mark Dambly called trustee Al Lord’s comments offensive and embarrassing to the board majority, the university community and sexual assault victims.
“We strongly condemn them,” Lubert and Dambly said in a statement sent to reporters by the university’s office of strategic communications. “Members of this board must hold themselves to a higher standard and represent our university with respect for all.”
…
“Once again, we have a group of trustees stomping on our freedom of speech rights,” said alumni-elected trustee Anthony Lubrano, a Lord ally. “Al Lord made a comment that was very personal, well within his right. And I think Al should stay on the board until the conclusion of his term.”
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http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/130860/diving-into-the-2017-fpi-projections
ESPN put out FPI projections for every game this season.
Favorites to win the conference:
B12 – OU 77%
B10 – OSU 69%
ACC – FSU 49%
SEC – AL 47%
P12 – USC 34%
B10 details:
East – OSU 83%
West – WI 82%
CCG – OSU vs WI 68%
Major OOC games:
2. AL vs 4. FSU (Atlanta) – AL 55%
3. OU at 1. OSU – OSU 73%
OSU has 33% chance to go 13-0. Nobody else is above 10%.
Chances the champ has 0 or 1 loss:
B10 – 80%
SEC – 47%
ACC – 41%
B12 – 39%
P12 – 32%
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http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=1-19091056
4 teams are favored in every game according to FPI. Here are their lowest chances of winning:
OSU – OU, 73%
WI – MI, 69%
USF – UCF 55%
AL – FSU 55%
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Sanderson likes to have fun.
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Maryland is losing its national freshman women’s player of the year. Guard Destiny Slocum is transferring, probably to a school closer to her native Idaho. It’s rumored her mother is suffering from cancer. The Terps might be susceptible in the B1G next season.
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Go Blue!
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Go Bucks.
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I’m curious how the AAC decided to pursue Wichita State over Dayton and/or VCU. Either of those would have made a lot of sense, too.
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Dayton was probably blocked by the Cincinnati Bearcats (Dayton might also be forever “blocked” by Xavier from the BE). VCU likely does not have the large $ benefactor that WSU does, though it provides a market link between Greenville NC and Philly.
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@urbanleftbehind – I actually believe that it’s much more about the lack of interest from Dayton and VCU toward the AAC compared to the other way around. Note that the A-10 has unequal revenue sharing for NCAA Tournament credits where individual schools that make the Tourney receive 70% of the credits that they earn directly (with 30% going to the conference). This is a significant financial benefit for schools like Dayton and VCU that are regularly making it to the Big Dance. The upshot is that the AAC wouldn’t really raise revenue for Dayton and VCU in the way that it would clearly raise revenue for Wichita State compared to the MVC (which has equal revenue sharing for NCAA credits). The only non-P5 league that Dayton, VCU or schools like SLU would leave for is the Big East. Now, a school like UMass would love to get an AAC invite, but that’s more about getting a viable home for their FBS football program as opposed to basketball interests.
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Michael in Raleigh,
“I’m curious how the AAC decided to pursue Wichita State over Dayton and/or VCU. Either of those would have made a lot of sense, too.”
1. Were they interested in the AAC? I honestly don’t know if either would be interested. I also don’t know that they wouldn’t be.
2. UC wouldn’t want Dayton in the AAC. Too much market overlap anyway.
3. VCU only joined the A10 in 2012. They may not want to move again so soon.
4. As I mentioned on Frank’s previous post, Wichita State adds a 6th western team so they could use an E/W split for scheduling or even have 2 game road trips (F/Su). 16 games would give you 5 home and homes in division plus 6 crossover games.
West – SMU/UH, Tulane/Memphis, Tulsa/Wichita State
East – UCF/USF, UConn/Temple, UC/ECU
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“16 games would give you 5 home and homes in division plus 6 crossover games.
West – SMU/UH, Tulane/Memphis, Tulsa/Wichita State
East – UCF/USF, UConn/Temple, UC/ECU”
… and 18 games would give you a divisional round robin and 8 crossover games, so 2 crossovers can be Home and Away.
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Yes, obviously. Or they could play 2 more OOC games if that makes more financial sense for them. The point was to reduce travel by playing the closer schools more.
If they add Dayton instead, it’s hard to make the split since UC and Dayton are such an obvious pair. If they add VCU then UC would have to move west and pair with Tulsa which is not particularly helpful either.
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https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/04/07/aac-conference-adds-wichita-state-shockers
Wichita is in the AAC
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@Mike – As expected!
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Go Big Red
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The P5 has done their bit. Its time for the trickle down effect. Although there would have been more if the Big 12 had expanded. This wouldn’t have happened if the AAC schools had performed better in basketball. But they have a need.
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Haven’t heard much of late about Connecticut bolting the American to return to the Big East in sports other than football. Has that fallen through?
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Edsall probably connvinced the admin he could pull it off again. Also, the WSU add both strengthened their basketball SOS by 1 (or more) game. WSU would also been a midwestern public partner add to the BE alongside UConn.
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UConn would have to abandon football, or very significantly downgrade football to join the Big East. There is obviously no way that any G5 league would take UConn football, without bball. Certainly UConn has zero chance of leaving football in the AAC and moving basketball to the BE. (I am ignoring all other sports, since they just follow football and basketball)
There is just nowhere for UConn football to land, if they moved bball to a non-football league.
The Big East has already been through the basketball/football divide. Personally, I doubt that the BE would ever take any school that has more than D2 football. They would know that any G5 type football school would always be hoping for a P5 invite.
So, what does UConn do? Give up on all dreams of joining a P5 conference and ditch football? Hang in there with the AAC, try to build up football, and hope for an invite? They have pretty much committed to the latter.
There is still some hope that the Big 12 will expand after all and take UConn. Of course, the favorite sentiment in Connecticut is still that the ACC will eventually realize the error of its ways and invite the Huskies/
The addition of Wichita State will help AAC bball, so that gives UConn some comfort. The Connecticut newspapers have been very supportive of this move.
Of course, the financial squeeze on UConn sports continues. It is a tough situation. I believe that if the day comes (in a few years) when there is another round of P5 movement and UConn is still left on the outside, they may have to reconsider the future of UConn football.
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“So, what does UConn do? Give up on all dreams of joining a P5 conference and ditch football? Hang in there with the AAC, try to build up football, and hope for an invite? They have pretty much committed to the latter.”
When the BigXII implodes next decade they’ll probably be in consideration for whatever conference rises out of the ashes with the BigXII schools that didn’t get a golden ticket to a P4 conference.
The problem is that assumes that no other AAC team grows in potential over the next few years. UConn will still be at a detriment due to their location. I don’t see the K-States, Iowa Stats and the Texas Left Behinds wanting to travel up to Connecticut any time soon if they could help it. They better hope they’re better in football and basketball than the AAC Florida and Carolina schools.
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I dont see that happening either, with regard to football, I could see a MAC split into 2 separate conferences by east and west, where UCONN with UMASS join with Miami-OH, Ohio U, Buffalo, perhaps Delaware, Marshall, ODU . The “west” would be NIU, Ball, WMU with the Dakotas perhaps Illinois State (who had been hoping to take NIUs spot had NIU been selected for AAC filler following another AAC’s promotion to the big 12).
If UCONN is headed to the BE minus its football, it probably needs a midwestern public partner willing to downgrade/never had football. Oakland U in suburban Detroit. and Cleveland State, might be the only schools that fits this bill and dont overlap an existing BE school (e.g. Milwaukee, UNO, UIC, NKU, IUPUI). Memphis might actually be closer than farther in this regard, given its once-in-blue-moon football prowess.
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I could easily see Connecticut giving up football due to economics. One school I see really benefiting from the Wichita State move is Kansas. I know the AAC is not the B10, but a real question is how much is a premiere hoops program worth (especially when KU is in the AAC)? I suspect quite a bit and when the the Land Grant ends, it will be the Jayhawks (along with Texas), getting the B10 berth, while the Oklahoma Schools( OU & OSU), getting the SEC. The other Schools will get picked up by the AAC and Mountain West. As for the Huskies? Maybe a slot in the Big East or MAC might be their best option, because not only will they be poor at football, but their best asset ( women’s basketball) will not be so great when that Coach retires.
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vp19,
“Haven’t heard much of late about Connecticut bolting the American to return to the Big East in sports other than football. Has that fallen through?”
I haven’t heard anything since mid-February. Both sides denied it at the time, too. The problem, of course, is football. UConn has several potential options there if the partners agree:
1. Stay in AAC
2. Be football-only in AAC (would AAC say yes?)
3. Be football only in MAC (maybe with UMass to make 14 teams – would MAC say yes?)
4. Be independent in football
5. Drop to I-AA
6. Drop football
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1. Only realistic option.
2. Zero chance that the AAC agrees.
3. I doubt that the MAC would say yes. What does UConn football do for the MAC? I also question whether the Big East would agree, though going from the MAC to a P5 does not seem likely. This might be less threatening to the BE.
4. This has been discussed and rejected as unrealistic by Uconn. As an independent, UConn probably could not even put together a schedule.
5. This might work for the Big East, but UConn is not ready to give up P5 ambitions.
6. See number 5.
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I wouldn’t put it past the MAC to say yes to that … the eastern division schools in particular would like the Eastern Exposure with a game in New England every season, it would allow Bowling Green and Toledo to be in the same division, eliminating the locked cross over game, and the 2H/2A games with both UConn and UMass would be appealing for MAC Basketball. Basically, similar to why they wanted Temple and were willing to promote UMass to get Temple/UMass. Those reasons disappear or are much weaker with only UMass (or only UConn), so they’d likely insist on the same “if one goes, the other one can go all-in or all-out after four years” clause as they had with Temple and UConn.
It’s not a lead pipe cinch, but there would still be the same reasons for the strategy to appeal, to the eastern schools in particular.
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Jersey Bernie,
“1. Only realistic option.”
It’s certainly the easiest and the most likely.
“2. Zero chance that the AAC agrees.”
Probably, but the AAC would want 12 schools in both football and MBB. If UConn leaves, who replaces them? Is there a viable new member better than UConn?
I-A options in the AAC East footprint:
Army – shows no interest in a conference
Buffalo
Marshall
Less than 7 years in I-A:
UMass – good geographic replacement
ODU
App State
Charlotte
GA State
GA Southern
The AAC would at least have to think about it.
“3. I doubt that the MAC would say yes. What does UConn football do for the MAC? I also question whether the Big East would agree, though going from the MAC to a P5 does not seem likely. This might be less threatening to the BE.”
It provides east coast access for recruiting students in the future. That’s important for schools based in the Great Lakes states. There’s a reason the MAC was willing to add UMass and Temple. Yes, it would require UConn to basically admit that their football will never go P5.
“4. This has been discussed and rejected as unrealistic by Uconn. As an independent, UConn probably could not even put together a schedule.”
Opinions can change with time. If hoops suffers too much, it might force UConn to reconsider some options they’ve rejected previously. UMass manages to make a schedule, so UConn could.
“5. This might work for the Big East, but UConn is not ready to give up P5 ambitions.”
Not yet, but it’s still an option no matter how unlikely at the moment. Budget issues could always make it more realistic in the future.
“6. See number 5.”
It’s almost unthinkable, but it is an option.
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I have to say I am surprised there hasn’t been any further rumblings for the Big East to go back to 12 – there are several other like schools (i.e., urban Catholic schools without 1-A football in the northeast or midwest) that would fit the existing profile including: Holy Cross, St. Louis, Detroit, Duquesne, Loyola (Md). Has the Big East decided that 10 is enough?
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/missouri-valley-conference-needs-to-fill-voids-left-by-wichita-state-and-creighton/
CBS suggests replacements for Wichita State.
1. St. Louis (A10 and wants east cost access, so unlikely)
2. Valpo (Horizon – lateral move?)
3. Murray St (Ohio Valley founding member)
4. Belmont (Ohio Valley)
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It took me a while to notice the gesture the Shocker mascot is making with his fingers. Well played Shocker, and well played Frank
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Another spot in the pecking order that Rice could at least aspire to is now gone. Another of the thousand cuts that are killing us.
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It is a shame about Rice. They were the biggest loser when the South west Conference ended, and they are still being neglected today. Look at the various issues at Baylor yet they are still in a Power 5 Conference, and even SMU that got the Death Penalty ended up better then the Owls?
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/19131827/maryland-president-wallace-loh-says-expect-death-penalty-north-carolina-tar-heels-athletics
UMD president Wallace Loh had some strong words about UNC’s athletic/academic scandal.
“As president, I sit over a number of dormant volcanoes,” Loh said during a University of Maryland senate meeting Thursday, according to the Raleigh News & Observer. “One of them is an athletic scandal. It blows up, it blows up the university, its reputation, it blows up the president.
“For the things that happened in North Carolina, it’s abysmal. I would think that this would lead to the implementation of the death penalty by the NCAA. But I’m not in charge of that.”
UNC responded by claiming Loh has no direct knowledge of the case, but I think years of press coverage and multiple NOAs mean there’s a good chance Loh and other presidents are well aware of what happened at UNC. As he said, it’s a president’s worst nightmare and something all the presidents must have followed to some degree.
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AAC commissioner talks about the expansion
https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2017/04/10/american-aac-add-wichita-state-conference-expansion
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SI: What’s the challenge of being the sixth conference in a world where there are, at least for now, five so-called power conferences?
MA: Everybody felt that our conference was going to have a certain undercurrent of instability. That’s an accurate statement to the extent that in the early days it did, and through this whole Big 12 process, no question. But if some schools left, we’d still have a great nucleus, a great core, and now we’re aspiring to be a [Power 6]. That’s the key. We’ve beaten [Power 5 programs] in football. We have 19 wins in two years. We have 32 games of over a million viewers on ESPN platforms. That’s remarkable. Last year alone, we had a Tulsa-Ohio State game that had four million viewers, and we had a UCF-Michigan game that had two million viewers. Our championship game one year out-rated the Pac-12 championship game. And now the question is, if there’s stability in the landscape, which it looks like there is, we’ve got to try to be a P-6.
And that’s where Wichita comes into play. My feeling was if we weren’t holding up our end of the bargain in basketball, it would be harder to claim that we were a P-6 conference.
…
I think [a Power 6] is attainable. I really do. I think these schools have resources. We’ll get a better TV deal. That’s going to be key. In a few years, we’re going to be negotiating. We’ve got the ’17–’18, ’18–’19 and ’19–’20 seasons left to go, but we’ll negotiate well before that. I think our guys have done more with less already.
He’s kidding himself if he really believes that. They are nowhere near making it a Power 6. Yes, they may get a better TV deal. But they are so far behind the P5 financially it’s laughable to think that the new deal will matter that much.
As for touting the viewers of their games, get back to me with numbers for AAC conference games. People didn’t tune into those two games to watch Tulsa and UCF.
2016 data:
The AACCG pulled 2.0M. The lowest of the P5 CCGs (ACC) pulled 5.3M. The CUSACG pulled 1.0M and the MACCG pulled 1.4M. The AAC is closer to the rest of the G5 than they are to the P5.
As for MBB, they are also well behind. They’ve averaged 3 bids over the past 4 seasons. That’s behind what a P5 conference should have. They are in line with the top mid-majors, nothing more.
Average # of NCAA bids over the past 4 years (I didn’t check any other conferences):
ACC – 7.0
B10, B12 – 6.75
Big East – 5.5
P12 – 5.25
SEC – 4.0
A10 – 3.75
AAC – 3.0
Even if adding Wichita State gets them up to 4 per year, only the SEC is that weak among P5 conferences.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/04/11/friday-night-games-schedule-big-ten
An SI writer wrongly claims that Friday night CFB is a good thing for the B10 and everyone else.
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New Rice branding today. What do you think?
http://www.chron.com/sports/rice/article/Rice-opts-for-refresh-unveils-new-athletics-brand-11066235.php
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I don’t see a ton of improvement. I’m sure they’ll sell some new gear but then I think everything will go back to status quo. I just don’t think most people care that much about any but the best logos. I’m glad they kept the Old English “R” as to me that was the only symbol I associate with Rice anyway.
I think the “new, clean and sharp” fonts and images are fine but will look out of date in a few years and need to be replaced yet again. Lots of schools go through those cycles for no real gain that I can see.
I’m not convinced the owl actually looks like an owl in the full bird image but I suppose some owls may look like that. To me an owl has a larger body. The image looks more like a raptor of some sort to me.
I think in the wordmark I would’ve tried to make the notches in the “R” and “O” be shaped like the owl’s beak or else have those serifs be owl wings (or something else) to subtly tie in the imagery to the words.
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Did kind of look like a raptor or a small owl. Most of us are used to seeing owls sitting and staring. I guess the key is how recruits like the uniforms. They are an update. I did like the old English R.
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It only has the slightest indication of the owl’s body (the white coming down off the neck), and the body is not in profile, so it doesn’t really have to indicate the body size … but it looks about right for a barn owl. A snow owl’s body would look bigger, but (1) Rice is a bit far south to have a snow owl as a mascot and (2) much of that is fluffier down for insulation.
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When I was in school our live mascots were great horned owls.
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I withdraw my long term hope that the long play would be UVA and UNC to the B1G.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.sportingnews.com/amp/ncaa-basketball/news/north-carolina-hb2-acc-championships-ncaa-boycott-unc-nc-state/rqtmr53jqdub12gtili3pwdei
Kinda like one of the objections to UT. You have to deal with the state, not just the school.
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“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.” – Maya Angelou
Many schools on the surface that look like great conference “fits”, and are otherwise outstanding institutions, are not, in reality, compatible with every conference. Every institution going to a new conference has hold-outs who think it’s a mistake, but I think most of the B1G feels Nebraska was a very compatible pickup. UMD may take a little longer to feel at home in the B1G, but that should eventually feel comfortable as well. Culturally, the B1G has always seemed far more palatable to fans in the Central time zone than it ever was to the those in the Southeast.
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So are they going to pull UNC and NCSU out of the NCAA too? I’m sure the NAIA would welcome them with open arms.
I doubt this bill becomes a law, but states have passed dumber laws before.
Serious question:
If the state ever did force UNC and NCSU out of the ACC for this reason, would any other P5 conference add them? Obviously the P12 wouldn’t and the ACC couldn’t. They’d bring lots of value to the SEC or B10, but would those conferences tolerate a state sticking their nose in like that? I think they might be tempted to stand united with the ACC and try to force the state to back down. The B12 might be the most receptive due to their size and wanting WV to have some closer schools, but even then the solidarity among these conferences can be strong when their power is threatened.
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As a follow-up, what would happen to the ACC? Would Duke stay or follow UNC elsewhere? What about UVA? Would WF be kept with all their in-state foes gone?
With Tobacco Road gone, would the ACC crumble or just split into North and South divisions and backfill as needed (UConn, WV, etc)?
North – BC, SU, Pitt, UL, UConn?, WV?
Either based on who is around – VT, UVA?, Duke?, WF?
South – Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19142531/under-new-bill-north-carolina-nc-state-required-withdraw-acc-conference-boycotts-state
They have proposed House Bill 728, filed Tuesday, which states any public state school in a conference that boycotts North Carolina would be barred from “extending any grant of media rights to the conference” and “shall immediately provide written notice to the conference that the constituent institution intends to withdraw from the conference no later than when the assignment of its media rights expire, unless the conference immediately ends the boycott.”
So the state would respect the current GoR. Does that mean they really are unbreakable or does it mean they haven’t bothered to look into the details? What if the boycott ends before the GoR does? Do the schools still leave? Is there a penalty fee for saying you are leaving even if you end up staying?
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http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/north-carolina-nc-state-pulled-from-acc-hb2-southeastern-conference-big-ten/1wljrcokaza5a1ftfg939xw2mv
Sporting News’s take on what would happen to UNC, NCSU and the ACC if they were forced out of the ACC.
North Carolina lawmakers just can’t stop themselves from introducing inane bills that could potentially hurt their largest insitutions.
Fresh off a stinging public rebuke from pretty much everyone over the state’s controversial bathroom bill, N.C. lawmakers this week introduced another bill that, if passed, would pull North Carolina and N.C. State from the ACC if the conference removed events from the state, like it did in the wake of HB2.
First off — that’s not going to happen. The bill is nothing more than a display put on by a group of lawmakers whose pride and public image has taken a serious beating in recent months.
Why won’t it pass? Because both schools stand to lose out on hundreds of millions of dollars if it does.
The bill, HB728, prohibits the schools from extending grant of media rights to the ACC — which the conference has already extended into the 2030s — and requires them to put aside money gained from those rights to use in conference termination fees. The ACC divvied out $26.2 million per school from TV revenue in the 2014-15 fiscal year, more than any other conference beside the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten. Losing out on at least that much money on an annual basis should stop the bill in its tracks.
…
UNC by far has the most to gain should it get pulled from the ACC. The question now facing the Tar Heels is this: Do we want to play in the SEC or Big Ten?
The Tar Heels certainly have enough power, money and prestige to go the independent route, but the money involved in joining another Power 5 conference should be too much for UNC to seriously consider it: Both the SEC ($32.7 million) and Big Ten ($32.4 million) divvied out, on average, over $6 million more per school than the ACC in the 2014-15 fiscal year.
The case for joining the SEC
[see the article to read the case for the SEC]
…
The case for joining the Big Ten
[see the article to read the case for the B10]
…
Assuming N.C. State does not partner with UNC to form some sort of package deal, the most likely move for the Wolfpack is to make the jump to the AAC, since it simply doesn’t have the same pull as its North Carolina sibling to court interest from the likes of the Big Ten or SEC.
…
What Happens to the ACC?
…
The conference won’t need to realign either, considering North Carolina and N.C. State are permanent cross-division rivals.
The immediate concern for the conference, however, will be to keep other conferences from poaching its remaining schools. Assuming the SEC or Big Ten secures UNC (but not N.C. State), it leaves open the possibility for those conferences to seek another ACC team order to maintain the conference’s split-division format.
The most enticing option would likely be Georgia Tech. Atlanta is in the middle of SEC country, and bringing on the Yellow Jackets would renew several old rivalries in the conference. Atlanta’s media market is massive (ranked ninth by Nielsen), making it a huge draw for the Big Ten, even if the school wouldn’t fit geographically with its other members.
Other schools the ACC would need to protect include Virginia, Clemson and Florida State, all of which would provide untapped media markets and competitive football/basketball teams.
I don’t see Clemson or FSU at stake if the B10 and/or SEC are taking ACC schools (the B12 would take them, though). GT is only in play for the B10. UVA would be intriguing to both of them.
I also think UNC and NCSU would be forced to be a pair by the state in this scenario, or at least they would both have to find equivalent homes (one in B10, one in SEC would be okay from NC’s point of view) and play each other annually.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/04/12/north-carolina-nc-state-leave-acc-boycott-championships-house-bill-728/100382142/
Some more details.
It calls on the two public schools in the league to “immediately” notify the conference it “intends to withdraw” if another boycott is launched and the school would be barred from re-joining the ACC for five years after the boycott ends. The bill does not impact Duke and Wake Forest, both private schools from the state in the ACC.
So if they’re still in the ACC waiting for the GoR to expire and five years pass after the boycott, apparently they wouldn’t need to leave.
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Good for NC. Legislation like that is long overdue. Congress should threaten their tax exempt status, too.
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jog267,
“Good for NC.”
You’re welcome to believe that. I think you’ll find the majority opinion is different but that doesn’t make you wrong.
“Legislation like that is long overdue.”
It is? Based on what? When should it have been passed? The HB2 only passed just over a year ago. Was there some other issue before that that should have prompted this sort of legislation?
“Congress should threaten their tax exempt status, too.”
On what basis? Conferences shouldn’t have the right to determine where their championships are held without losing tax exempt status? Yeah, good luck with that. There is no reasonable tie between this sort of decision by the ACC and their tax exempt status.
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This is political theatre by the NCAA and ACC,” U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson said in a statement. “If these multi-million dollar, tax-exempt organizations were interested in social change and not making a political statement, they would proceed with their marquee events in North Carolina and enact any transgender bathroom policy they wanted. This blatant political move — less than two months before the election — brings into question their tax-exempt status. This is an avenue we intend to explore.”
Indeed. Thus legislation (and regulations) which ensure that conferences and the NCAA mind their place in the world is long overdue.
The NCAA and ACC are tax exempt entities which exist for a purpose; that purpose is not to attempt to influence legislation or engage in political activity at any time of any kind for any reason. They should mind their own business rather than bully states or public institutions (Chief Illiniwek; the Fighting Sioux, etc.) to conform to the social mores of a cloistered and unrepresentative leadership class. The Catholic Church cannot legally do this, and taxpayer supported institutions don’t constitute a majority of its members.
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jog267,
“”This is political theatre by the NCAA and ACC,” U.S. Rep. Richard Hudson said in a statement.”
“If these multi-million dollar, tax-exempt organizations were interested in social change and not making a political statement, they would proceed with their marquee events in North Carolina and enact any transgender bathroom policy they wanted. This blatant political move — less than two months before the election — brings into question their tax-exempt status. This is an avenue we intend to explore.””
Speaking of political theater. He can explore all he wants. He’ll find no legal basis for removing their TE status. As for effecting social change, all these boycotts did get NC to change their law.
Good luck to the congressmen and senators from NC in stripping the TE status of the ACC against the wishes of those from MA, NY, PA, KY, VA, SC, GA and FL let alone all the other states with P5 schools.
“Indeed. Thus legislation (and regulations) which ensure that conferences and the NCAA mind their place in the world is long overdue.”
And what exactly is “their place” in the world? They are made up of voluntary members. They felt compelled to implement boycotts because the NC law violated fundamental principle the ACC and NCAA hold dear.
“The NCAA and ACC are tax exempt entities which exist for a purpose; that purpose is not to attempt to influence legislation or engage in political activity at any time of any kind for any reason.”
Any TE entity is free to attempt to influence legislation or politics within the bounds of the law.
“They should mind their own business rather than bully states or public institutions (Chief Illiniwek; the Fighting Sioux, etc.) to conform to the social mores of a cloistered and unrepresentative leadership class.”
They consider non-discrimination against their fans and athletes their business. Schools are welcome to leave if they don’t like it.
“The Catholic Church cannot legally do this,”
Bull. They influence legislation all the time. Open your eyes.
“and taxpayer supported institutions don’t constitute a majority of its members.”
So? The ACC is an entity all by itself. The makeup of its members isn’t actually relevant to its TE status.
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Publicly funded universities should reflect and promote the social values (to the extent they promote social values at all) of those funding them; the organizations to which they belong should not be bullying taxpayers to change or alter their laws or values. Period.
The NCAA and ACC may be legally entitled to behave as they do; but they reflect the values of their leadership which are often at odds with taxpayers who fund their member institutions. They are, in effect, using public resources to promote their own agenda.
This is what I meant by minding their place. Congress and the state legislatures can change the law regarding tax exempt status – and other matters if that is necessary – to put them in their place.
Two thirds of ACC members are public institutions; all are in states with GOP controlled legislatures. Should these legislatures decide that the institutions funded by their constituents must, say, eliminate race from consideration for university admission, permit open carry on campus, or any implement any other conservative policy, is the ACC the proper entity to force this change on the 5 private schools? Membership is voluntary…
(I don’t support such policies, by the way.)
This would, of course, be wholly inappropriate. But that was my point. Neither the ACC and NCAA has any semblance what is appropriate, seem incapable of modesty or self restraint, and are thoroughly disdainful of citizens in general and taxpayers in particular.
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jog267,
“Publicly funded universities should reflect and promote the social values (to the extent they promote social values at all) of those funding them;”
Who, exactly, determines what those values are? Why should they be bound to what they feel are incorrect values just because people in the state still hold them? By this line of thought, every public university in the south would’ve stayed segregated until fairly recently (and some still would be). Tyranny of the majority is something the US tries to prevent.
“the organizations to which they belong should not be bullying taxpayers to change or alter their laws or values. Period.”
The organizations in question didn’t say anything to taxpayers. They told the state government that their law was unacceptable to that organization. And a whole bunch of other groups told NC the same thing (NBA, NFL, individuals, etc), so it’s not like the ACC and NCAA were out on a limb.
“The NCAA and ACC may be legally entitled to behave as they do;”
There is no “may be” about it. They acted 100% legally.
“but they reflect the values of their leadership which are often at odds with taxpayers who fund their member institutions.”
Are they? Or are there just a lot of vocal complainers who like bad laws? And let’s be honest, NC taxpayers probably provide 15% or less of the funding for UNC and NCSU and none at all for the NCAA and ACC. The rest of the ACC and NCAA owe nothing to NC taxpayers.
“They are, in effect, using public resources to promote their own agenda.”
No, they aren’t. The membership dues are trivial.
“This is what I meant by minding their place. Congress and the state legislatures can change the law regarding tax exempt status – and other matters if that is necessary – to put them in their place.”
Why would they punish their own schools? Other states aren’t going to go along with such an idiotic decision. The instant they lose TE status, they also lose almost all of their donations since they can’t be written off. It’s very hard to write laws that pick out one group and will hold up to judicial scrutiny. Do you think the other conferences would let that happen nationally? Do you think the other conferences with NC schools would?
“Two thirds of ACC members are public institutions;”
So? Not all states think alike.
“all are in states with GOP controlled legislatures.”
That’s nice, but they still aren’t all the same. There are lots of red states that think NC’s law is stupid.
“Should these legislatures decide that the institutions funded by their constituents must, say, eliminate race from consideration for university admission, permit open carry on campus, or any implement any other conservative policy, is the ACC the proper entity to force this change on the 5 private schools?”
Nobody would force those changes on them.
“(I don’t support such policies, by the way.)”
Of course you don’t. Just the laws that discriminate how God intended. Would you like separate facilities for colored people back too? After all, the majority wanted those laws for a long time.
“Neither the ACC and NCAA has any semblance what is appropriate,”
Disagreeing with you doesn’t mean they lack a sense of what is appropriate.
“seem incapable of modesty or self restraint,”
Yes, they just boycott non-stop. There must have been 2 or 3 in the past 100 years. What radicals.
“and are thoroughly disdainful of citizens in general and taxpayers in particular.”
Citizens and taxpayers as groups aren’t their concern. The well-being of the student-athletes and their fans are.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/tom-hermans-texas-longhorns-will-least-well-hydrated.html
Tom Herman has urine color charts over all the urinals at UT. Good for him in stressing proper hydration. Way too many coaches used to focus on toughness by not taking taking water breaks in the old days. I’m glad to see a coach putting player health and safety first and selling it as being a good teammate.
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If you get down to the level of UT orange, you are VERY dehydrated.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/oral-roberts-prevented-coach-recruiting-players-tattoos.html
The new president at Oral Roberts seems to be a real jerk.
Oral Roberts used to be one of the nation’s better mid-major programs. Hired in 1999, a 28-year-old Scott Sutton led the Golden Eagles to 11 straight winning seasons before the program completely tanked the last two years, finishing 8-22 and dead last in the Summit League this season. So the school fired him, and you think you can understand why, right?
Now we have a better idea as to why the program has struggled recently, and it’s not Sutton’s fault.
Starting in 2013, new Oral Roberts president Billy Wilson told Sutton he could only sign players without tattoos, and new recruits would have to pass a “faith exam” as well, according to reports from the Tulsa World and local CBS affiliate KOTV.
…
In general, it’s become clear the administration at Oral Roberts treated Sutton like crap. According to the KOTV report, Wilson sought any reason to fire Sutton, which suggests his recruiting rules may have been more about creating a losing program to make Sutton look bad than to actually stick to the school’s evangelist tradition. The report also says Wilson told Sutton to fire his brother Sean Sutton, an assistant at Oral Roberts since 2011, not only to hire a new assistant, but to hire a new head-coach-in-waiting. In other words, Wilson wanted Sutton to hire his eventual replacement in place of his brother, who was also the top assistant on his staff.
…
It’s no coincidence that Sutton’s teams hit a bit drop-off once Wilson became president. The Golden Eagles went 58-70 since 2013 after winning 20-plus games in seven of the previous nine years.
If those evangelist values are really the main values at your school, go ahead and stick with them. But don’t expect a winning product on the court if those values are the priority. And don’t fire a coach with a winning track record simply for doing as he was told.
…
As it already stands, morale on campus has dipped, according to Ben Johnson of the Tulsa World. On top of that, this week’s news could have a larger negative impact on the university with advertisers wavering on their commitments.
I wonder if all students also have to pass a faith exam and can’t have tattoos. If so, more power to ORU. If not, this is just the president being an ass. If you just don’t like the coach, you can fire him. Why try to manufacture a reason this way? It sounds like a little karmic retribution with the advertisers getting antsy, though.
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For an committed religious school like Oral Roberts, tests of religious belief, bans on tatoos (also banned in OT), etc., are reasonable. Students, faculty and staff freely chose that environment.
They also ban alcohol, social dancing and profanity:
http://handbook.oru.edu/section-2/behavior-and-conduct-regulations/
Until the 60’s, colleges and universities had all sorts of behavior regulations. As someone who lived through the turmoil of the period, it is not clear that the elimination of those rules was a net good.
It is not obvious that what happened at ORU is a bad thing. The pervasive corruption in college athletics everywhere is a really bad thing.
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bob sykes,
“For an committed religious school like Oral Roberts, tests of religious belief, bans on tatoos (also banned in OT), etc., are reasonable.”
Yes, as long as they apply to everyone. That’s what I said above.
“They also ban alcohol, social dancing and profanity:
http://handbook.oru.edu/section-2/behavior-and-conduct-regulations/”
There is no mention of tattoos in that code of behavior. Nor do I see any details about a faith test. ORU seeks to maintain a Christian environment, but that covers a wide range of denominations (Greek Orthodox to Catholic to Baptist to LDS). Many of those people would answer differently to questions about their faith. ORU requires chapel attendance but doesn’t specify beliefs in detail. Imposing these restrictions just for the MBB team seems peculiar.
“Until the 60’s, colleges and universities had all sorts of behavior regulations. As someone who lived through the turmoil of the period, it is not clear that the elimination of those rules was a net good.”
Regulating behavior is quite different from imposing a faith test for only certain students. Similarly, they could require players to cover tattoos while on the court and in classes.
“It is not obvious that what happened at ORU is a bad thing.”
Making a coach fire his brother rather than having the AD do it? Then forcing him to hire a coach-in-waiting to replace his brother? Telling him he’s fired by text? Restricting his recruiting then firing him for not winning enough? All of that seems bad to me. If you want him out, just fire him and do it face to face.
“The pervasive corruption in college athletics everywhere is a really bad thing.”
Yes, but I don’t see any evidence of corruption here.
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We disagree less than you think. I merely think that as long as everyone knows up front what they are getting into a college’s behavior rules are not an issue. That is not to say I would want my children at such a school.
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I have no issue with them having extreme rules. I do have a problem with them only applying to the MBB team as a method of firing the coach. That and how the coach was treated are the parts that make the president seem to be a jerk.
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Buffalo is dropping four sports ~ on the men’s side soccer, swimming & diving, and baseball, accompanied by rowing on the women’s side ~ citing lack of resources in the Athletic Department, dropping them down to FBS minimum 16.
There will be some form of subsidy-sport realignment resulting from this, as MAC soccer has five full time members and WVU to make the minimum six for the autobid. The minimum impact would be one of the affiliate members of a midwestern non-FB conferences that sponsor men’s soccer as one of their require three men’s team sports … either Eastern Illinois in the Summit or Southern Illinois – Edwardsville in the MVC … where realignment could halt there, as both are presently at seven members. Bigger impact would be the MAC dropping soccer or inviting an affiliate that would push another conference below six, like Howard University in Sunbelt soccer.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/04/13/neil-gorsuch-supreme-court-ncaa-amateurism-lawsuits
SI examines the impact Neil Gorsuch could have on NCAA athletics via cases on amateurism reaching the SC.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19157689/ncaa-division-council-passes-proposal-overhauling-college-football-recruiting-rules
The NCAA has finally approved a major overhaul of recruiting rules as a package.
The legislation revamps early official visits, places limits on hiring individuals associated with recruits and affects three other key areas of the football recruiting process. It also allows for a 10th full-time assistant coach, which will become effective on Jan. 9.
…
With the proposal’s passage, prospects will be allowed to take official visits, paid for by the school, from April 1 of their junior year through the Sunday before the last Wednesday in June. Before the change, official visits were not allowed before Sept. 1 of a prospect’s senior year. The change in the recruiting calendar becomes effective Aug. 1 and will first affect the 2019 recruiting class.
The early visits are designed to work in tandem with an early signing period, which was not part of the agenda this week in Indianapolis. Conference commissioners, who administer the national letter of intent, are expected to vote on a proposed mid-December early signing period at their meetings in June.
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who chairs the Division I Football Oversight Committee, said he expects the vote on a early signing period to pass.
“We have every expectation that the December date would be approved at the June meeting of the Collegiate Commissioners Association,” Bowlsby said. “But I would be remiss if I didn’t say we’re going to continue to take a very close look at early signing dates. We know that approximately 70 percent of college football prospects make their decisions prior to the middle of the football season of their senior year. Those young people need to have an option available to them to terminate the recruitment process earlier than December.”
Also part of the new legislation are strict rules that mirror what is used in college basketball for individuals associated with prospects, or IAWP. The IAWP rules are designed to prevent schools from hiring anyone associated with a prospect for noncoaching positions.
For example, the high school coach of a prospect is not allowed to take a paid or volunteer job as an analyst or strength coach at the college recruiting that coach’s prospect. An IAWP is permitted to take a job at the same college only as a full-time, on-field coach.
Penalties for violating the IAWP rules range from permanent ineligibility of the players involved to the suspension of a head coach or assistant. The IAWP rules are effective immediately and retroactive to include contracts signed on or after Jan. 18, 2017.
…
Another important piece of the proposal reduces when coaches can conduct camps from two 15-day periods in June or July to 10 days in June. It also requires camps to take place on campus or at facilities used primarily for practice or competition by member schools.
This rule is effective immediately
…
Also bundled in the proposal is the limitation of annual scholarships to 25. This is a move to do away with oversigning and to reduce the practice of grayshirting, a tactic by which schools delay the enrollment of a prospect until the following January so his signing would technically count as part of the next class.
The legislation limits to 25 the number of prospects whose aid is initially offered in the fall term of an academic year. Before, rules limited to 25 the number of prospects allowed to sign from Dec. 1 through May 31. This portion of the changes will affect newcomers in the 2018 signing class.
The new rules also create an expanded summer dead period for the entire month of August and from Monday before the last Wednesday of June through July 24. This allows coaches to take a break from the recruiting trail, spend more time with their family and focus on the start of fall camp in August. This portion of the legislation doesn’t become effective until Aug. 1 and will affect the class of 2019.
In the run up to the vote, many have been describing this package as the most sweeping reforms to recruiting ever. I don’t actually think there will be a huge change. I like adding a 10th coach, allowing spring official visits (good for northern schools) and not allowing schools to hire people just to get a recruit. It’s great for coaches to limit the period when camps can be held and expand the summer dead period so coaches can take true vacations. It’s good for the recruits to be left alone more too. I’m not sure how much the oversigning limitation will really change things. Schools are good at finding loopholes. I think a simpler rule like a cap of 25 new players on scholarship in any one year would be more effective, but maybe not.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-council-votes-to-eliminate-two-a-day-practices-from-preseason/
Another rule in the package – no more two-a-days. Fall practice will be allowed to start a week earlier so that teams can get the same number of practices in as before. That’s a great decision for the players.
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Indeed.
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Nebraska’s in something called the NCAA Women’s Bowling championship. Playing McKendree (IL) College. Not bad environs and the uniforms help.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/04/17/college-athletes-pay-purdue-big-ten-ncaa/100553590/
Former Purdue AD Morgan Burke says trying to give athletes more benefits would come at the expense of donations.
Recently retired Purdue athletics director Morgan Burke has an answer for those who believe athletes in the most prominent college sports should receive greater benefits than those currently allowed under NCAA rules, including benefits other than cash:
No, not only do athletes get enough now, there also are people involved in the college sports world – specifically donors – who think athletes get too many benefits.
…
“In his opinion, student-athletes already are provided with everything that they need to be successful, which he described as the goal of financial aid to student-athletes. He said that ‘we’ [referring to schools] want to provide a level of support and services based on the time demands of participating in intercollegiate athletics and being a student that meets what student-athletes need to be successful academically and athletically.
“MB believes that there is ‘already some tension’ where the question of giving more to student-athletes is concerned. He said that some schools ‘are creeping back into that.’ ”
The notes next say that Burke discussed the John Purdue Club, the athletics department’s fundraising arm.
“ … MB said that one can already see what the effect of changing the current model of student-athletics would be on this group. If the model were changed to a more professionalized version, the members of the John Purdue Club would cut back in their giving and their level of interest in intercollegiate sports. ‘They see how much we’re getting from our media contracts and that the university is taking a cut,’ MB said. They ask him, ‘why are you asking us? You’ve got money.’
“Member [sic] of the John Purdue Club would not like the money going into athletes’ pockets beyond the cost of their attendance at Purdue. Some donors already are concerned about the level of services Purdue provides its student-athletes. MB and his colleagues have to explain why the services are appropriate. He believes that if he didn’t have those conversations, donors might act unilaterally and reduce the amount of money they give.”
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Good that Purdue has something other than win at all costs donors.
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http://usatodayhss.com/2017/ncaa-map-states-florida-vermont-football-recruiting
Where D-I players come from.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/19187949/baylor-hires-first-female-president-amidst-sex-assault-scandal
Baylor has hired a woman as their new president. I hope she works hard on changing the culture and is successful.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/19201974/martin-jarmond-hired-boston-college-eagles-athletic-director
BC has hired OSU’s deputy AD to become their new AD. Martin Jarmond in only 37, so he becomes the youngest P5 AD. He’s also black, boosting the number of minority ADs. Perhaps he’ll be OSU’s choice to replace Gene Smith when he retires.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/19198313/indiana-hoosiers-bans-athletes-history-sexual-violence
IU has banned athletes with a history of sexual or domestic violence from now on.
According to the Indianapolis Star, the policy bans “any prospective student-athlete — whether a transfer student, incoming freshman, or other status — who has been convicted of or pleaded guilty or no contest to a felony involving sexual violence.” Considered under “sexual violence” are domestic violence, rape and sexual assault.
I hope all schools follow suit.
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Two ESPN bloggers make the case for their conference having the best roster of coaches in the nation.
B10 case:
http://www.espn.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/142170/best-roster-of-coaches-in-america-its-in-the-big-ten
1. Meyer
2. Harbaugh
3. Franklin
4. Dantonio
Others of note: Chryst, Fitzgerald, Ferentz
Too soon to tell, but respected: Riley, Smith
Exciting young bloods: Brohm, Fleck, Ash, Durkin
Other: Allen
ACC case:
http://www.espn.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/99186/whos-got-better-coaches-than-the-acc-nooobody
1. Fisher
2. Swinney
3. Petrino
Others of note: Cutcliffe, Richt, Fedora, Johnson, Fuente
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http://ohiostate.247sports.com/Bolt/Why-is-there-no-spring-high-school-football-in-Ohio-52389358
A reminder that Ohio (and most of the north) doesn’t play spring football while much of the south and west does. This makes a significant difference in player development.
http://usatodayhss.com/2012/rules-about-spring-high-school-football-vary-nationwide
This article discusses the vast differences in rules from state to state on this.
Vermont schools are allowed five days of spring practice while Florida schools get 20, for instance. In California, the rules even differ between the California Interscholastic Federation’s 10 sections.
In all, 16 states allow full-fledged, full-pad spring practices.
Alabama is one of them. The state’s athletic association gives teams four weeks to hold up to 10 practices and play in a spring game against another school. After putting his team through a winter and early-spring conditioning program that doesn’t count against its spring allotment, Niblett uses spring practice to simulate what the team will experience come fall.
…
Hal Wasson, coach at defending Class 5A Division I Texas state champion Carroll (Southlake, Texas), uses spring ball to find the identity of his team, develop the team’s depth and build mental toughness.
Wasson, who like Niblett puts his team through a grueling winter and early-spring conditioning program before spring practice begins, typically uses 14 of the state-allotted 18 practices. His team wraps up the spring with an intrasquad game, which he says typically draws almost 4,000 fans.
…
In Connecticut, schools have the option of conducting 10 days of practice toward the end of the school year or adding four days to the start of practice in August.
The choice is easy for Connecticut High School Coaches Association president Steve Filippone, also coach at defending Class L state champion Daniel Hand (Madison, Conn.).
“We believe wholeheartedly that the spring is the best time of year to stress fundamentals and injury mitigation,” he said. “If you’re trying to teach kids the proper technique to tackle and block while you’re trying to get ready for a game, you’re not going to put as much emphasis on it.”
The biggest argument against spring practice is that it discourages athletes from playing multiple sports. South Carolina grants teams 21 days of spring practice – 10 in pads – but pushes it back until the end of the spring season so athletes aren’t forced to choose.
Utah takes it a step further by prohibiting spring practice.
“We want kids who play baseball or run track to not feel like they’re getting left behind because they look out the window and see the football team working out,” said Kevin Dustin, assistant director of the Utah High School Activities Association.
There’s no easy answer since weather forces spring sports to start later in the north. Perhaps northern states could fit in a few practices early in spring before the weather is conducive to other sports and/or a few late in the school year.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/michigan-state-lineman-auston-robertson-charged-with-sexual-misconduct/
MSU DL Auston Robertson has been charged with 3rd degree sexual assault (max = 15 years). This is a separate incident from the one still under investigation involving 3 players and a coach getting suspended. Unfortunately for MSU, Robertson has a history of bad behavior.
In January 2016, he was arrested for misdemeanor battery for allegedly touching a female classmate inappropriately while at Wayne High School in October 2015. After entering into a diversionary program, the charges were cleared last month. Robertson did not sign with Michigan State until after he entered the diversionary program.
You have to think the victim is going to try to sue MSU and/or the AD and/or Dantonio and/or anyone she can blame for letting Robertson into MSU with that history and insufficient supervision. Stories like this are why IN’s new policy is so wise.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19210781/southeastern-conference-commissioner-greg-sankey-denies-request-removed-unc-infractions-panel
We have a timeline for the UNC case.
Sankey’s letter also details a new timetable of completion for the oft-delayed case. UNC must respond to the latest charges by May 16. The NCAA enforcement staff then has until July 17 for its own response. Sankey wrote that his panel will hear the case in August with “anticipated” dates of Aug. 16 and 17.
Rulings typically come weeks to months later.
So this may be over (except the inevitable appeals) by the end of the year.
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Claiming that Sankey should be disqualified since he is an SEC Commissioner is pretty weak stuff. Just another stall attempt.
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Watch UNC throw football under the bus to protect its sacrosanct men’s basketball program.
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For the first time, it looks like a traditional B10 team will win a share of the conference title in MLAX. So far only UMD (1.5) and JHU (0.5) have won even a share of the title. With an OT win yesterday, OSU now has the tiebreaker over UMD and JHU with only 1 conference match left for each team and all at 3-1 in B10 play. OSU needs to beat 1-2 RU to clinch a share of the title. JHU and UMD face each other in their final match, so there will likely be a split title again.
The B10 is a strong conference this year with 4 teams in the top 10 of the latest committee rankings:
2. UMD
5. OSU
6. JHU
7. PSU
It should be a great B10 tournament and a decent shot at a national title for somebody from the B10.
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Meanwhile out west, a bit of a shake up.
As usual, I have disagreements with some of Wilner’s assumptions and conflations. But it is covering a change that may (or may not) be significant.
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I think he makes some interesting points:
Murphy-Stephans also made some shrewd talent hires — too bad she couldn’t keep Neuheisel! — and proved an able champion of Pac-12 Olympic sports.
And lest anyone forget: Exposure for those sports was a crucial selling point for the conference chancellors and presidents … a higher priority, in fact, than turning a substantial profit.
…
In that regard, I’d argue that Murphy-Stephans’ successor must have two qualities above all:
1) He/she must have a deep understanding of, and passion for, the Pac-12 campuses, and 2) He/she must be a champion not of the Olympic sports but of the money makers.
It was all well and good for the Pac12Nets primary decision-makers — Murphy-Stephans, a speed skater, and Scott, a tennis player — to have backgrounds in, and inclinations for, the Olympics sports.
But not anymore.
As the next wave of Tier I deals and potential realignment builds on the horizon, the Pac-12 must have someone in charge of the Networks who views the world first-and-foremost through the lens of football/basketball lens.
I can’t speak to the culture in the P12N and won’t try to. But I do think it’s important to remind people that exposure for the non-revenue sports was a key component to getting conference networks as far as the presidents are concerned. That means you can’t just look at everything from a financial perspective.
That leads to the dichotomy of Wilner saying the next person must shift the focus to CFB/MBB. Have the presidents suddenly changed their minds? If not, then someone with a non-revenue focus might be the right match for what the presidents want from the P12N. You don’t have to be oblivious to the financial picture to support non-revenue sports.
I agree a CFB/MBB focus would be more likely to get P12N carriage on DirecTV, but I’m not sure anyone can make it worthwhile to DirecTV at the price the P12N is demanding. I just don’t know that the demand is there for it.
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I pretty much agree. However, how could they focus more on FB/MBB? They already broadcast every home FB game not taken by T1 contract, and most if not all BB. Plus multiple replays. More talking head/coaches shows?
How exactly does T1 future negotiations relate to the network? Maybe I’m wrong, but 100% ownership to me seems to give flexibility that a partnership with an entity across the negotiating table would compromise.
It’s not a financial bonanza but seems to serve the presidents and chancellors intent. P12N does make money (and has from the start), just not as much as BTN. SECN, ACCN, LHN are espn owned properties so I’m not including them in a conf net comparison. If the 2010 P16 had occurred (or occurs?) I’d bet the comparison to BTN would be much closer, as would T1 deals, too.
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ccrider55,
“However, how could they focus more on FB/MBB?”
I’ve never watched the P12N, let alone looked at their programming schedule.
“They already broadcast every home FB game not taken by T1 contract, and most if not all BB. Plus multiple replays. More talking head/coaches shows?”
Possibly. I believe the P12N spend more time on non-revenue sports than the other conference networks, but maybe that’s just a function of them having the regional P12Ns too. Maybe he means things like scheduling (when games are played, which teams are in them, avoiding short weeks or long travel after late games, etc). Or leveraging games to get the P12N better distribution or higher fees.
Just for a quick comparison, look at today’s TV listings:
BTN – about 15 hours of football
P12N – about 15 hours of non-revenue sports
5 hours of P-12 Sports Report (4.5 hrs straight), 2 baseball games, a softball game, women’s water polo, WBB PotY show
“How exactly does T1 future negotiations relate to the network?”
It’s another outlet to show games, so it’s certainly relevant. If it had broader coverage maybe they could potentially put more games on it or have more leverage for scheduling the T1 games?
“Maybe I’m wrong, but 100% ownership to me seems to give flexibility that a partnership with an entity across the negotiating table would compromise.”
The split ownership models have worked pretty well so far.
“It’s not a financial bonanza but seems to serve the presidents and chancellors intent.”
Mostly, but even they have expressed some concerns about the financial gap to the B10 and SEC. If the gap gets too large, they may feel compelled to make changes to close it.
“P12N does make money (and has from the start), just not as much as BTN. SECN, ACCN, LHN are espn owned properties so I’m not including them in a conf net comparison. If the 2010 P16 had occurred (or occurs?) I’d bet the comparison to BTN would be much closer, as would T1 deals, too.”
Sure, but it didn’t and people still want to see the large media markets out west capitalized on to full advantage.
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“It’s another outlet to show games, so it’s certainly relevant.”
All games are shown now. Conf net gets primarily games not selected by T1
“If it had broader coverage maybe they could potentially put more games on it or have more leverage for scheduling the T1 games?”
Are you suggesting the conf net is competing as a T1 bidder? In the future, perhaps. But not currently, and not as a competitor to a partner. At P12N’s formation I was scoffed at when I suggested 100% ownership offered the possibility of independence from the “middle men.” Now it’s a viable proposition, just lacking a level of carriage for now?
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ccrider55,
“All games are shown now. Conf net gets primarily games not selected by T1”
It doesn’t have to be that way. The SECN got some major games its first year to force carriage deals.
“Are you suggesting the conf net is competing as a T1 bidder? In the future, perhaps. But not currently, and not as a competitor to a partner. At P12N’s formation I was scoffed at when I suggested 100% ownership offered the possibility of independence from the “middle men.” Now it’s a viable proposition, just lacking a level of carriage for now?”
Remember, you’re asking me to explain what someone else meant by an offhand comment. I’m just throwing out possible explanations.
The only real value to 100% ownership is that they have an asset they can sell while still having control over the network.
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Brian:
“It doesn’t have to be that way. The SECN got some major games its first year to force carriage deals.”
As does the P12 in the T1 picking order of games that includes a few first and several second picks.
“The only real value to 100% ownership is that they have an asset they can sell while still having control over the network.”
Not just control. Ownership – of an entity that is probably in excess of $1B valuation. I think some underestimate the intrinsic value of ownership. tOSU isn’t selling off parts/half/all of the Horseshoe. Same at Mich and the Big House.
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ccrider55,
“The only real value to 100% ownership is that they have an asset they can sell while still having control over the network.”
“Not just control.”
Control is key. The B10 and SEC sold parts of their networks but maintained a level of control. The P12 still has that option.
“Ownership – of an entity that is probably in excess of $1B valuation.”
Valuations mean very little if nobody will actually pay that for it. Who would pay $1B to take over the P12N?
“I think some underestimate the intrinsic value of ownership.”
Ownership gives you control and an asset. That’s it.
“tOSU isn’t selling off parts/half/all of the Horseshoe.”
But they’ve sold naming rights to almost everything else. They’ve privatized all kinds of things. The B10 sold half of the BTN to Fox.
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Brian:
“The B10 and SEC sold parts of their networks but maintained a level of control.”
SEC didn’t have one. SEC made a media rights deal with espn. ESPN created and owns it (the network).
“Ownership gives you control and an asset. That’s it.”
There is little more.
“They’ve privatized all kinds of things.”
But not the infrastructure.
“The B10 sold half of the BTN to Fox.”
Again, they didn’t sell (part of) an existing entity. They sold interest in an entity Fox would significantly invest in creating. Would BTN have happened without Fox? Kevin Weiberg said years later he wished they’d have gone without a partner.
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ccrider55,
“SEC didn’t have one. SEC made a media rights deal with espn. ESPN created and owns it (the network).”
You know what I mean. Same with the B10. The B10 pre-emptively “sold” 50% of it to get it created.
Now that conference networks are a known entity, the P12 could consider selling half of it if a good deal ever comes along (maybe from Google).
“There is [a] little more.”
It can stroke your ego, I suppose. Otherwise it’s just an asset you control.
“But not the infrastructure.”
Parking. Energy (HVAC/electricity). They’d consider selling buildings if they could retain control of them, but as is they sell naming rights to rooms, wings, whole buildings, etc. They also solicit donations to cover the cost of building or renovating them. If donations ever stop being enough, then we’ll see what they will privatize.
“Would BTN have happened without Fox?”
Only if someone else stepped in. The presidents wanted a partner to reduce the risk and BTN needed leverage to get carriage.
“Kevin Weiberg said years later he wished they’d have gone without a partner.”
It wasn’t his money being invested. Getting carriage was a fight as it was. Without Fox (or another partner), the BTN never gets off the ground.
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Brian:
“It wasn’t his money being invested. Getting carriage was a fight as it was. Without Fox (or another partner), the BTN never gets off the ground.”
He was one of those responsible for the investment. His later statement indicates it wasn’t a choice of partner, or no network. It was a choice to partner in a new untried venture. I don’t think there was a Fox agreement when Delaney told espn “consider them rolled.” It would have happened without Fox/partner, but with a higher anxiety level. At least that’s my read.
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ccrider55,
“He was one of those responsible for the investment.”
Yes, but it still was someone else’s money. Most people are more willing to risk the money of others than their own. That’s all I’m saying.
“His later statement indicates it wasn’t a choice of partner, or no network. It was a choice to partner in a new untried venture. I don’t think there was a Fox agreement when Delaney told espn “consider them rolled.” It would have happened without Fox/partner, but with a higher anxiety level. At least that’s my read.”
I agree they probably would’ve tried it. I just have zero faith it would’ve been successful. Any conference can have a network if they don’t care about making money from it. They certainly weren’t going to get the same sort of carriage fees for an untried product with no real leverage. Fox brought TV production and sports coverage knowledge to the table as well as leverage with carriers.
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I moved from Arizona to North Carolina last month, and while I wad there was no demands in the state for Direct TV to pick up PAC-12 Network to show more Sun Devil ( ASU) or Wildcat games ( University of Arizona games). I myself had Direct TV ( instead of Cox or Dish ( both of which offer Pac-12)). When I moved, I chose Direct TV again. Why? The same reason I chose Direct TV in the first place: The NFL Sunday Ticket. If the choice is Sun Devils or Steelers, there is no way ASU ladies vollyball comes over the Steelers. Until the Pac-12 understands that showing ladies vollyball may look good ( politically speaking), the reality is most people who are sports fans, are chosing the provider that has the Sunday Ticket ( especially if they live outside the Pac-12 footprint). Of course, that requires common sense and a comprension of economics that state the NFL, BTN and SEC are going to chosen over the Pac-12 Network.
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Brian:
“Yes, but it still was someone else’s money.”
Maybe I’m weird, but I am more careful with someone else’s money than my own.
David Brown:
I have Comcast. I didn’t have a choice to not get the SECN (not that I would make that choice) with my package when SECN started. I get all the NFL I need without Sunday ticket. I do watch soccer, v ball, gymnastics, wrestling, softball, t&f, and baseball on conf nets. They aren’t my primary source for FB/BB.
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ccrider55,
“Maybe I’m weird, but I am more careful with someone else’s money than my own.”
Some people are that way, but most aren’t.
“I have Comcast. I didn’t have a choice to not get the SECN (not that I would make that choice) with my package when SECN started. I get all the NFL I need without Sunday ticket. I do watch soccer, v ball, gymnastics, wrestling, softball, t&f, and baseball on conf nets. They aren’t my primary source for FB/BB.”
I was in the same situation so I dropped cable rather than pay for the SECN. I don’t watch the NFL, so that’s not a concern. I do miss ESPN for CFB and MBB games, but there are other ways to get it now like Sling.
I would watch some of the non-revenue sports on BTN if I had it, but I wouldn’t pay for the SECN to get BTN.
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Brian:
So you are getting P12N ?
http://pac-12.com/article/2016/09/07/pac-12-networks-adds-all-six-regional-networks-sling-tv
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However, how could they focus more on FB/MBB?
I’ve seen some criticism that the PTN is too focused on the Olympic sports. For example, on Football signing day the BTN and SECN did long signing day specials where the PTN didn’t.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19235179/sec-commissioner-greg-sankey-view-parts-recruiting-package-healthy
Gee, here’s a shock. SEC commissioner Sankey is hoping the NCAA rethinks parts of their new recruiting rules package that he finds “unhealthy” for CFB (translate as the new rules hurt the SEC’s competitive advantages).
It was made clear leading up to the vote that this was a package deal as that was the only way it could pass. It seems unlikely they’d instantly start undoing pieces of it.
“I think there’s some good in there, and I think there’s clearly some issues we did not support as a league and don’t think are heading in the right direction at this moment,” Sankey said. “Hopefully, they will be subject to further review sooner rather than later. …”
Rules he dislikes:
1. Allowing official visits in spring (April through early June) when northern schools can pay to bring in southern players to look around in nice weather and they aren’t busy with HS games.
As for the change regarding early visits, Sankey cited a member of the student leadership council who wondered why schools would want recruits making official visits outside of the regular academic schedule.
He said the SEC proposed an amendment that would have permitted them just in April.
“But the idea of bringing young people to visit a campus when you’re not having regular campus life is not a direction we would support,” Sankey said.
2. The hard cap of 25 recruits per year.
Bowl Subdivision schools would also be limited to signing 25 prospective or current players to a first-time financial aid agreement or a national letter of intent, with exceptions for current players who have been enrolled full time at the school for at least two years and those who suffer an incapacitating injury.
Sankey said the league, which already has a signing limit for member programs, wanted to expand the time range for counting scholarships toward the current class.
“What’s called a hard cap on signing, I don’t think that accomplishes what it’s intended to accomplish,” he said. “I think what it’s going to do is remove some opportunities that should exist. So somebody signs, isn’t eligible for some reason, the school is prohibited from replacing that scholarship with someone new, an initial counter. “
In other words they won’t get to sign 28 kids (with all the recognition for a highly rated class), have 3 fail to qualify academically or get arrested and still have a full class in the fall. Heaven forbid they have to give a scholarship to a walk-on for a year.
He also said he didn’t understand the addition of a 10th football assistant coach, which he called “a bit of a sweetener” in the package.
It’s part of their plan to limit the size of non-coaching staffs going forward. They’ve said they’re looking at that now and Saban has already started complaining.
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http://newsok.com/article/5546727
Oklahoma passed a new law allowing universities to sue boosters whose actions result in economic losses (like getting the team busted by the NCAA).
The measure allows a lawsuit against third parties who trigger penalties and economic losses against schools for breaking a governing body’s rules. For example, if a booster gives cash to a student athlete in violation of NCAA rules and the NCAA fines the university, a court could order the booster to pay damages to the school.
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/willie-taggart-oregon-ducks-rebuild-mario-cristobal-justin-herbert-royce-freeman-042417
OR’s new coach had a few interesting things to say about his program.
“I was really shocked at how weak we were as a football team,” Taggart said. “Having this great facility, it’s easy to get complacent. You assume recruits are just going to come, but you’ve got to go get them.”
…
[about the workout scandal]
“We know we didn’t do anything to try to hurt our kids. We’d done [the same program] everywhere we’ve been and never had a problem,” Taggart said. “I think our guys just overworked themselves and didn’t hydrate. … They were trying to impress the new coaches.”
…
[about his D]
“We have a guy or two that can play at some positions, but not a whole [position] group that we feel comfortable with,” Taggart said.
…
“It’d be easy for people to say, ‘OK, it’s a new staff, they’re trying to break these guys down’ — especially since all I kept hearing was, ‘Coach, Oregon is soft a football team, Oregon’s not tough,’” Taggart said. “It’s easy to take that story and think we’re in here trying to make them tough.
“I can’t make them tough. You’re either tough or you’re not.”
…
“I think a lot of the young men that were here, they came here for the uniforms, not to be a great football player. That fell by the wayside,” Taggart said. “We’ve got to get back to being blue collar. We’ve got to make them earn the things that they get here — and they get a lot.”
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ESPN layoff day. Seems to be on the journalist side.
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I always assumed that Brett was the journalist who was going to the a Q&A with Frank. Maybe he’ll have time for it now.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2017/04/26/espn-layoffs-on-air-digital-personalities/100933556/
About 100 people are expected to get pink slips, both on-air and digital.
Some who are gone:
NFL – Ed Werder, Trent Dilfer
MLB – Jayson Stark, Jim Bowden
NHL – Scott Burnside, Pierre LeBrun, Joe McDonald
CFB – Jeremy Crabtree, Danny Kanell, Brett McMurphy
Other – Jay Crawford
“A necessary component of managing change involves constantly evaluating how we best utilize all of our resources, and that sometimes involves difficult decisions,” ESPN president John Skipper said in a memo to ESPN staffers. “. . . These decisions impact talented people who have done great work for our company. I would like to thank all of them for their efforts and their many contributions to ESPN.”
The cuts are expected to number around 100 as ESPN deals with a decline in subscribers amidst paying billions per year in rights fees for professional and college sports. Disney’s cable networks division saw an 11% drop in operating income driven by a decline in ad and subscriber revenue at ESPN, Disney announced in its most recent quarterly report in February.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/espn/confirmed-espn-layoffs-constantly-updated.html
Awful Announcing has a post with a running list of everyone who has been let go.
Others I didn’t list above but relevant to many of us:
Brian Bennett – B10 reporter
Austin Ward – B10 reporter
Jesse Temple – B10/WI reporter
The other CFB conferences took hits, too.
The Hollywood Reporter also reported that Karl Ravech, Hannah Storm, and Ryen Russillo would not be laid off, but would see their roles “significantly reduced”.
Sounds like ESPN is trying to focus on a few stars in each sport rather than an ensemble cast for everything. They may also be looking to find cheaper replacements to do the reporting.
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Another name on the list: Mark May is officially gone.
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far and away the most reliable reporter on realignment issues.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=1-19250005
The CFP isn’t expanding any time soon. It sounds like it will at least make it the full 12 years at 4 teams. I think it stays there unless some major controversies happen soon. Also no G5 playoff. Status quo reigns supreme.
From Heather Dinich:
There are absolutely no signs of the College Football Playoff expanding anytime soon. I have asked every member of the CFP management committee – all 10 FBS commissioners and ND AD Jack Swarbrick — if they they are still in favor of a four-team playoff and the answer was a resounding, unanimous “yes.” Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany said he is “fully supportive,” Swarbrick said “yes, strongly.” Another topic you can put to rest is any notion of the Group of 5 splitting off to form its own championship. It’s an idea that is scoffed at by the sport’s decision-makers. In January, at the national title game, MWC commissioner Craig Thompson told me, “We have no traction in our league at all. I wouldn’t say ridiculous, but what’s an adjective that’s close to that?”
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And two years before they started the playoff there was no chance they would do that.
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There were lots of controversies during the BCS that had people arguing for years. The CFP hasn’t really had that. Quibbles over the #4 team just don’t seem to hold the nation’s attention very much. 2014 could’ve been an issue but OSU won it all so most people stopped worrying about it (TCU fans excepted).
If the CFP starts to face serious controversies, then it would be more likely to change. But I’m not hearing any groundswell for change right now.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2017/04/26/big-12-revenue-tax-return-sec/100929214/
The annual comparison of conference revenues begins. The B12 is the second P5 conference to reveal their tax returns.
The tax return, provided to USA TODAY Sports by the conference on Wednesday, showed that distributions to its 10 member schools ranged from $28.9 million for Oklahoma to just over $28 million for West Virginia. It was the first time that West Virginia and TCU have received full shares of revenue from the conference.
The distributions to schools included money from the conference’s reserve fund, spokesman Bob Burda said, so while its annual revenue increased, the conference ended up reporting a $3.9 million operating deficit for the year.
That’s without Tier 3 money, obviously. SEC numbers (including T3): $39.1M – 41.9M per school
So call that $40.5M vs $28.5M on average, or a $12M per school difference. Tier 3 covers that for UT and OU should be close, but the rest of the B12 should be trailing in total revenue.
The conference reported that its revenue from bowl games grew to just over $114.5 million in 2016, up from $74.5 million in 2015. According to Burda, the increased bowl revenue was due to the conference having seven bowl teams during the 2015 season, including Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff semifinals and Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl. The Big 12’s television revenue grew by just $8 million in 2016.
By contrast, the Southeastern Conference – so far the only other conference to release its tax records for the 2016 fiscal year – reported a nearly $110 million increase in its annual television and radio rights revenue as its SEC Network continued to take off. The SEC’s TV and radio rights revenue for fiscal 2016 — $420 million – far exceeded the Big 12’s total revenue for the year.
That’s a problem. If the SECN is growing quickly and the B12 is basically plateaued, then the gap will grow pretty quickly. If the B10 also starts showing a growing gap when the new TV deal starts, we should start to hear some realignment rumblings again from the B12 as their GOR ages (then from the ACC if they’re in the same boat still).
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SEC growth will become more normal in a couple of years. SECN is getting up to max coverage quickly.
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Yes, but if it levels off to the same growth rate as the B12 then the gap never narrows. Clearly no conference is going to grow by over $100M year after year after year.
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https://athlonsports.com/college-football/ranking-big-tens-toughest-college-football-schedules-2017
Toughest overall schedules in the B10 this year:
1. OSU
2. MI
3. PSU
4. RU
5. NE
6. MSU
7. UMD
8. IA
9. PU
10. IN
11. IL
12. WI
13. NW
14. MN
WI and RU are the 2 teams really out of place in terms of OOC games. You’d also like to see NW do better, but they’ve been up and down lately so you can understand the scheduling.
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https://www.seccountry.com/lsu/nfl-draft-teams-avoid-picks-home-state-colleges
NFL teams don’t seem to like to draft players from local power programs for some reason. Jacksonville is the only exception.
As of the beginning of the 2016 NFL season, 10 college football teams had 29 or more players in the NFL. LSU led the bunch with 42, followed by a who’s who of the best teams college football has to offer.
Seven of those schools lie geographically within 150 miles of an NFL team in its home state: LSU, Ohio State, Miami, Florida, Georgia, Penn State and USC. By virtue of Ohio having both the Browns and Bengals, Ohio State is within that distance of 2 NFL teams. So, if you look at those 8 examples dating back to 2000, you’ll find that only one squad hasn’t been afraid to capitalize on fan favorites.
[see article for better version of table]
School, NFL team, Distance, Total # drafted from that school since 2000, # drafted by that team
Ohio State Cincinnati Bengals 106 miles 108 2
Ohio State Cleveland Browns 143 miles 108 2
USC San Diego Chargers* 124 miles 97 4
Miami Miami Dolphins 15 miles 94 3
Georgia Atlanta Falcons 72 miles 94 4
LSU New Orleans Saints 81 miles 93 2
Florida Jacksonville Jaguars 71 miles 92 7
Penn State Pittsburgh Steelers 140 miles 64 3
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Before the merger, AFL teams had regional dibs on star players.
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NFL teams don’t seem to like to draft players from local power programs for some reason
I’ve always heard teams say it will help sell tickets.
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One of the more interesting moves I’ve ever seen a University do.
Purdue University said Thursday it has acquired for-profit Kaplan University to extend its reach into online and adult education, an unusual move for a public institution.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2017/04/27/purdue-acquires-for-profit-kaplan-university/?utm_term=.bb31a6401727
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A lot of universities are expanding farther into online education. You see a lot of different approaches as schools try to figure out what works best. As streaming improves, the possibilities for remote 2-way interaction are starting to make it truly viable. I admit buying a for profit school is an interesting approach.
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Here is the Purdue statement: http://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/releases/2017/Q2/purdue-to-acquire-kaplan-university,-increase-access-for-millions.html
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Yeah, I have no idea what to make of it. I have to admit Mitch has been a really, really outside the box thinker as a President. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
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The MVC’s confirmed candidates:
Valparaiso
Murray State
Nebraska – Omaha
UW-Milwaukee
UW-Milwaukee is engaged in discussions about joining the Missouri Valley Conference, sources confirmed to the Journal Sentinel on Wednesday.
[snip]
According to various reports, fellow Horizon League member Valparaiso also is under consideration, along with Murray State of the Ohio Valley Conference and Nebraska Omaha of the Summit League. Those schools have either already hosted Missouri Valley officials or are scheduled to do so.
http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/college/uwm/2017/04/26/uwm-considering-move-missouri-valley-conference/100937130/
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Would Murray State bring its football over to the MVFC – depends if NDSU and ISU Redbirds are seen as definitive upgrades? If they dont bite I could see the alternate move of adding the other 3.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=1-19255972
A little CFP update. They’ve tried to eliminate 2 week gaps between the semis and NCG.
From Heather Dinich (apparently she didn’t get laid off):
In order to shorten the time between the semifinals and the national championship game, the CFP management committee voted on Thursday to move the title game from Jan. 13, 2025 to Jan. 6. In 2026, the game has been moved from Jan. 12 to Jan. 5. Over the next nine years, there is only one year now in which there will be a two-week gap between the semifinals and national title game and that’s in 2020 because of conflicts with contracts for events in New Orleans. “We just think it’s better this way,” CFP executive director Bill Hancock said. “Teams don’t go 16 days between games during the season.”
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/acc-american-cafe-airport-restaurant.html
The ACC is opening a restaurant at Piedmont Triad International Airport (Greensboro, NC).
Will the B10 follow suit at O’Hare anytime soon?
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http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/042717aab.html
Some OSU scheduling news that may be of interest to a few people here.
1. OSU was scheduled to play a home and home with TCU in 2018-2019 (@TCU in 2018, @OSU in 2019). That has been changed to one neutral site game in JerryWorld in 2018 with each side getting $5M. OSU will replace TCU with Miami (OH) in 2019. This is partially due to the 2019 B10 schedule which had OSU playing road games on either side of that TCU game. Unfortunately it leaves OSU with a very weak OOC schedule in 2019 (FAU, UC, Miami (OH)).
2. OSU added a home and home with UW in 2024-2025.
3. The home and home series with BC has been pushed back from 2023-24 to 2026-27
Upcoming home and homes:
Oklahoma (2016 and 2017)
Oregon (2020 and 2021)
Notre Dame (2022 and 2023)
Texas (2022 and 2023)
Washington (2024 and 2025)
Boston College (2026 and 2027)
4. OSU also had games against BGSU and Tulsa in 2020 and 2021 respectively.
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http://ohiostate.247sports.com/Article/Ohio-State-Buckeyes-football-will-play-TCU-at-ATT-Stadium-in-201-52514223
Some notes from OSU:
“The Dallas Cowboys and AT&T Stadium reached out to TCU about moving their 2018 home game with Ohio State to Arlington,” Jarmond said. “They approached us and originally we weren’t interested. They came back again and came back again and we entertained it. Mutually, we agreed it would be good to go there.
“We are thrilled to return to a site that has such wonderful memories for all Buckeye fans.”
* The 2019 home game with TCU will be replaced as OSU will host Miami (Ohio) on Sept. 21, 2019. Jarmond did not hesitate to “lessen” the nonconference schedule that season because OSU faces potentially three stiff Big Ten crossover games with Wisconsin, Northwestern and Nebraska that year.
…
* The Big Ten TV deal which begins this year and will include games televised on Fox and ESPN platforms along with the Big Ten Network is still being finalized. The Big Ten has promised to have start times for the first three weekends in 2017 and the homecoming games set by May 31.
* Ohio State typically plays guarantees of $1.2 million for “stand-alone” contracts for single home games. OSU will play Oregon State, a Pac-12 opponent, $1.7 million for such a game in 2018.
…
* Jarmond laid out his primary objectives in scheduling.
“We do this for two reasons – to win the Big Ten and have a chance to get into the (CFB Playoff) four at the end of the year,” he said.
* He said he has historically looked for schools in areas where there are OSU alums and/or a recruiting base for OSU’s football program. He mentioned how Georgia and Tennessee could be attractive teams that meet those criteria. However, he said schools like Alabama and Clemson – neither of which in recruiting hotbeds – may not be as attractive.
He said OSU has tried to work a deal with UCLA but the years needed for home games for each school have not matched up.
* Jarmond said it is ambitious for OSU to play Texas and Notre Dame in the same two seasons (2022-23). But the Texas series was signed first and then the opportunity presented itself to get ND and OSU jumped at that chance.
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http://www.frogsowar.com/2017/4/27/15457788/tcu-announces-winner-take-all-game-with-ohio-state-in-2018-series-with-purdue
From a TCU blog:
Many Frog fans (including this one) were looking forward to hosting a tier one powerhouse like Ohio State at The Carter, as well as the opportunity to travel to one of the more iconic college football stadiums in two years. That being said, TCU has historically performed well at Jerryworld, posting a 2-1 record with wins over Oregon State and BYU and the lone loss coming to LSU in the dreadful 2013 opener.
…
TCU also announced an unusually scheduled home-and-home series with Purdue, with the Frogs traveling to Ross-Ade Stadium in 2019, and the Boilermakers coming to The Carter in 2029. Yes, you read that right; this year’s senior class will be in their 30s by the time they see TCU play Purdue in Fort Worth.
I’m sure TCU’s AD thought the money was worth it, but the fans must be a little disappointed not to get an OOC like OSU at home for once. Visiting OSU is nice, but few fans can afford the trip. The AD said at the time that $3M for the LSU game at Arlington was by far the most TCU had ever made from a game, so getting $5M has to be an improvement over the home and home for them. Now they get $5M plus a home and home with PU and still get to play OSU close to home.
That 10-year gap in the PU series begs for the second game to be bought out, but PU is too cheap to do that. I wonder if TCU factored that in when agreeing to the series.
As for OSU, this is the first neutral site OOC game since the old kickoff classics. It’s certainly the first big payday neutral site game. I guess OSU gets what it wants with $5M for a road game in Dallas (good for recruiting and local alumni) plus another home game. That’s more money and an easier OOC schedule in 2019 designed to balance the tougher B10 schedule.
2019:
FAU
UC
@ IN
Miami (OH)
@ NE
MSU
bye
@NW
WI
bye
UMD
@RU
PSU
@MI
The bye weeks are well placed, but PSU then @MI is a very tough finish. That’s where the SEC schedule of a I-AA before the final rivalry would help. @IN, TCU, @NE, MSU would’ve been really tough too. Switching to Miami (OH) makes it much more tolerable.
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2017/04/which-conferences-meet-most-often-during-2017-regular-season/
How often will each conference play the others in OOC games in 2017?
Following are the seven most-frequent matchups between FBS conferences in 2017. Of these, the SEC and C-USA are both listed three times, meaning their scheduling efforts are the most concentrated.
To illustrate, the 14 SEC members are slated to play 56 non-conference games in 2017. Of these, 26 (or 46%) are scheduled against opponents from the ACC, C-USA or Sun Belt. Beyond that, 14 (or 25%) are vs. FCS schools. That leaves just 16 (or 29%) opponents from the other six FBS leagues and Independents.
The only conference not mentioned is the Big 12, with only 10 members playing three non-league games each it had lower totals across the board.
The rarest matchups in 2017 are the following six combos, all with only one meeting each: ACC-Pac-12, Big 12-Mountain West, Big 12-Sun Belt, Pac-12-MAC, SEC-American, and SEC-MAC.
The only matchup you won’t see at all in the 2017 regular season is a Conference USA team playing a Mountain West member.
Most common:
10 – P12 vs MWC, SEC vs SB
9 – ACC vs SEC, B10 vs MAC
7 – CUSA vs AAC, CUSA vs MAC, CUSA vs SEC
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With the new round of lay-offs at ESPN, is it time to reopen the discussion of a Sports rights bubble? I mean from here it looks ready to burst. Cable subscriptions are continuing to decrease. More kids are never hooking up in the first place. ESPN is cutting known folks to try to keep up.
On the one hand the B1G is in a great spot because they can move their production online. On the other, all that money coming in from non-fans is drying up. What do you all think the future will hold?
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-nfl-draft-picks-by-college-team-sec-lsu-alabama-ohio-state-lead-the-way/
1st round draft breakdown by conference and school.
SEC – 12
B10 – 7
P12 – 6
ACC – 4
B12 – 1
AAC – 1
MAC – 1
Alabama: 4
LSU: 3
Ohio State: 3
Clemson: 2
Michigan: 2
Stanford: 2
Wisconsin: 2
14 school with 1
http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-nfl-draft-picks-high-school-recruiting-star-rankings-for-first-round-selections/
By stars:
5* – 10
4* – 12
3* – 6
2* – 2
NR – 2
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The draft surprised most people with a bunch of skill players going in the top 10 in what was predicted to be a defense-heavy first round. Also nobody from OSU or AL went in the top 10 despite the predictions.
Jabrill Peppers is basically assured to be a bust since the Browns took him. Similarly, Deshaun Watson will probably be great because the Browns traded away that pick. The universe has spoken.
Here are a couple of 2nd round mock drafts:
http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/2017-nfl-draft-second-round-mock-draft
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2017-nfl-mock-draft-second-round-picks-include-dalvin-cook-deshone-kizer/
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I was starting to think Lattimore and Hooker were being colluded against for making statements skeptical of the case against Gareon Conley.
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The AL guys slid too. It was just a weird first round. It seemed like a lot of reaches early on leaving quality players to take later.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19265734/leonard-fournette-christian-mccaffrey-start-trend-skipping-bowl-game-nfl-draft
Unsurprisingly, the NFL couldn’t have cared less about players skipping their final bowl games as Fournette and McCaffrey both went in the top 8 last night. Going forward, how much impact will that have? Will people with 1st round projections pretty much all skip their bowls if they aren’t at least a NY6 game? Will people lower down (2nd and 3rd round) skip too? Will people skip any non-CFP game? Would they even skip a CFP game?
“The reality is that the NFL doesn’t care,” one Power 5 college assistant coach said. “At the end of the day, it’s about taking the best player, and they don’t see that as a big negative the way a college coach sees it.”
Another Power 5 head coach summed it up this way: “For players who are going in the first round? This is just a start.”
Indeed, it does not seem advisable for most draft-eligible players to skip bowl games. In fact, bowl games might mean more for those players who have third- or fourth-round grades — another high-profile game on tape to prove how valuable they could be to a team.
But for players who are near certainties to go in the first round, there is a real understanding this could start becoming commonplace. How did we get to this point, where college coaches are now preparing for more players to follow a similar path? The dynamics of the game have changed so dramatically over the last decade, leaving clear warning signs along the way.
…
“When I was playing, I just never thought about it as a business the way these players do now,” one Power 5 assistant said. “I really can see both sides. As a college coach, I’d ask them why they want to abandon their teammates. But I also know how much of a business the NFL is.”
…
Already, postseason coverage has been tilted heavily toward the College Football Playoff teams. The other bowl games rely not only on marquee teams, but marquee players to promote their matchups. The Hyundai Sun Bowl last December, for example, featured No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky and No. 3 overall pick Solomon Thomas (on the same team as McCaffrey by the way).
What happens when surefire first-round picks start deciding bowl games just aren’t worth it anymore?
“I can envision a time where you’re a first-round talent, your team went 9-3 and is going to play at the Belk Bowl and his agent says, ‘You don’t need to play,'” a Power 5 assistant said. “It’s not going to hurt you. You’re guaranteed right now if you don’t play another game, $15 million and now you’re going to go play in a meaningless bowl game?”
Welcome to the slippery slope. On the bright side, maybe most bowls can go back to being more like exhibitions with a nice vacation as a reward for the players instead of business trips and being considered as important.
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I hope (and think) it won’t expand much. 1: Both McCaffrey and Fournuette had injuries that cost them playing time this year. 2: Many other sure high picks didn’t skip (including McCaffrey’s teammate that went five picks earlier). 3: Coaches are, and have been in the past, protective of their reputation and have reduced load and protected players in the past. Some even limiting/eliminating full contact practice throughout the season for some skill players. 4: and probably the biggest thing is the whole topic is talking head sports show time filler that everyone and their uncle can weigh in on with absolutely nothing except worthless opinion on the line. (The slimmed down espn “talent” rejoices…)
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ccrider55,
“I hope (and think) it won’t expand much.”
Obviously I hope the same thing.
“1: Both McCaffrey and Fournuette had injuries that cost them playing time this year.”
Yes. I think the first impact will be fewer players returning for an extra year. But most players are beat up by bowl time and starting to think about their future.
“2: Many other sure high picks didn’t skip (including McCaffrey’s teammate that went five picks earlier).”
True, but there also wasn’t the evidence that it wouldn’t hurt your draft status. Now that star players know that, will they change their behavior?
“3: Coaches are, and have been in the past, protective of their reputation and have reduced load and protected players in the past. Some even limiting/eliminating full contact practice throughout the season for some skill players.”
Yes, but they can’t prevent the injuries like Jaylen Smith and Jake Butt got. Seeing those guys drop in the draft and lose millions (partially compensated by insurance) has to sink in a little.
“4: and probably the biggest thing is the whole topic is talking head sports show time filler that everyone and their uncle can weigh in on with absolutely nothing except worthless opinion on the line.”
That’s only true as long as it’s 1 or 2 players. If 20 players opt to sit out of bowls one year, then it’s a real issue.
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” If 20 players opt to sit out of bowls one year, then it’s a real issue.”
An issue that talking about won’t effect.
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ccrider55,
“An issue that talking about won’t effect.”
True. That doesn’t mean it isn’t worth talking about. On rare occasions talk leads to action that does change things.
I’d be fine with devaluing bowls back to the exhibitions they used to be.
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I think the QBs will play.
Leadership and all that, and their biggest asset is their brain.
Probably the O-line as well.
Receivers don’t get hit much and would be the last skill group to sit out.
I certainly see top RBs starting to sit out non-major bowl games.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2017/story/_/id/19273930/chicago-bears-draft-three-five-players-fbs-level
Frank,
How do the Bears or their fans explain this draft?
1. Trade away a bunch of picks to move up 1 spot (from a team not looking for a QB) to take an underwhelming college QB
2. With 3 of your 4 remaining picks, take I-AA players
Round 2: Shaheen (TE) – Ashland
Round 4: Cohen (RB) – NC A&T – only 5’6″ tall
Round 5: Morgan (OL) – Kutztown
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Frank’s drinking to forget…or to get in a frame of mind to understand.
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Brian,
the McCaskeys are one of the worst ownership groups in pro-sports. This becomes even more tragic whey you realize that Papa Bear himself really helped professional football become the nfl…
This organization fired Lovie Smith after a ten win season.
This organization hired a coach from canada that will not be named.
This organization hired a fresh faced GM from New Orleans with no experience or maturity. That GM got fleeced by John Lynch and prepared the way for the rookie 49er gm to become executive of the year.
I’m so disgusted with this draft, I don’ t know what to do… I got together with my boys at a bar last night and while we bemoaning the draft, 3 men we didn’t know asked if they could join us so that they could vent their frustrations… Before long, the whole bar joined in, it was like karaoke for “Bears” complaints… It was crazy, and the bears are gonna raise ticket prices this year…
A horrible, horrible draft.
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Ryan Pace spends the whole run up to the draft repeating that the Bears will take the best player available regardless of position then trades three picks to move up one spot and take a guy at #2 who would have been a stretch from a BPA standpoint at #20.
The rest of the draft consists of 2 D-II players, a 5’6” FCS back and an injury plagued player who end last year with a broken leg.
The only explanation I can give
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-nfl-draft-picks-by-college-sec-michigan-set-records-alabama-impresses/
Draftees by conference:
SEC – 53 (23 on day 3)
ACC – 42 (31 on day 3)
P12 – 36
B10 – 35
AAC – 15
B12 – 14
MAC – 13
Notes:
1. That’s a record low for the B12 (old record was 17).
2. 53 is the third best draft ever for the SEC (2013 – 63, 2015 – 54). It looks like the SEC is on a 2 year cycle.
3. As I said elsewhere, I think you’re seeing the effect of OSU, PSU and WI all returning so many starters for next season.
By school:
MI – 11
AL – 10
Miami – 9
LSU, UF, Utah – 8
OSU – 7
TN, NC, Clemson – 6
IA – 4
WI – 3
MSU, NW – 2
IN, IL, MN, NE, PSU, PU – 1
UMD, RU – 0
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And Purdue’s streak of NFL draft participation reaches 20 years.
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How sad. My first year at Perdue was Bob Griese’s last.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2017-nfl-draft-nearly-one-third-of-early-entries-were-not-selected-this-year/
On the down side, 28 of 95 early entrants went undrafted.
From the B10:
Marcus Oliver, LB, Indiana
Devine Redding, RB, Indiana
Garrett Sickels, DE, Penn State
The IN guys make some sense with the coaching change and 1 being a RB. Maybe Sickels also had good personal reasons.
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https://www.trackingfootball.com/blog/tracking-football-finds-88-2017-nfl-draft-picks-multiple-sport-athletes-high-school/
88% of the players drafted played multiple sports in high school. The percentage was higher in rounds 1&2 (94%) and decreased every round until round 7.
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http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/gallery/2018-nfl-mock-draft-the-way-too-early-two-round-projection-042917
A 2018 two round mock draft.
B10 guys:
1st round
8. Barkley (RB – PSU)
11. Hubbard (DE – OSU)
13. Lewis (DE – OSU)
2nd round
35. Campbell (WR – OSU)
44. Booker (LB – OSU)
52. Price (OG – OSU)
54. Hurst (DL – MI)
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/kentuckys-new-kroger-partnership-includes-first-stadium-name-change-in-44-years/
UK has sold the naming rights to its stadium. They’re the first SEC team to do so but only the third I-A school in KY to do it.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/05/01/nfl-draft-big-12-georgia
Does this poor draft reflect on the future of the B12 or is it just an artifact of UT being down?
Draftees per school in 2017:
SEC 3.8
ACC 3.1
Pac-12 3.0
Big Ten 2.5
Big 12 1.4
No matter how the numbers get sliced, this is a glaring indictment of the Big 12. The question is whether it’s an indictment of the league overall or the league this year. Remember, the Big 12 averaged 2.6 draftees per team last year, 2.5 in ’15 and 1.6 in ’14. If the numbers jump closer to the other leagues next season, perhaps alarm bells aren’t necessary. But if they stay down, that could make it nearly impossible for Big 12 teams to recruit against SEC teams coming from the east and Pac-12 teams coming from the west.
Every recruit wants to know how a school will prepare him for the NFL, and the SEC and Pac-12 schools that recruit in Texas, Oklahoma and the rest of Big 12 territory can say with relative authority that NFL teams do not seem to like the players the Big 12 is putting out. That would further drain a talent pool that—judging by recruiting rankings—is already shallower than the pools in the other Power 5 leagues.
What don’t NFL teams like about the Big 12? Only the offenses and the defenses. Going into last season, the Air Raid and Art Briles offenses had proliferated so thoroughly that many NFL coaches and scouts viewed the Big 12 as a league playing an entirely different sport. Last season, Kansas State had the only offense that didn’t come off either the Hal Mumme/Mike Leach tree or the Briles tree. (Yes, Briles worked with Leach at Texas Tech. No, those offenses are not the same. But they do drive NFL personnel people nuts for the same reasons.)
NFL types especially hate the offensive line play because players rarely operate out of three-point stances and even though the teams pass quite frequently, players don’t have to hone many of the pass-protection skills they’ll need in the NFL. Much of the time, the linemen block a simple run play and the quarterback decides whether to hand off or throw after the snap. When the Texans took Baylor center Kyle Fuller with the 25th pick of the seventh round, they made him the first and only Big 12 offensive lineman selected in this draft.
Meanwhile, the league had only two receivers (Oklahoma’s Dede Westbrook by Jacksonville in the fourth round and West Virginia’s Shelton Gibson by Philadelphia in the fifth) selected. For a conference that flings the ball all over the yard, that should be fairly shocking. But NFL teams have gotten wise to the fact that receivers in those offenses run a much more limited route tree than receivers in other offenses.
Obviously these things go in cycles and UT has been down lately, but the B12 needs to increase these numbers. Perhaps Herman is the guy to get them back to the top. But the B12 needs others to step up as well.
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Well if Texas had 11 like Michigan, the Big 12 would have been at 2.4 per school, basically the same as the Big 10.
That said, there probably is something to the offensive and defensive lines. There is a different type of play and different type of player. On the other hand, every conference is moving to more and more of that.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/05/01/power-conference-american-athletic-plans-big-push-on-idea/101166998/
The AAC is making a push to be considered the sixth power conference.
The American Athletic Conference wants to be considered a power conference and released a strategic plan on Monday designed to help it improve its stature.
The plan sets goals for athletics, academics, health and safety, marketing and for bringing in more revenue.
Among the plan’s stated goals is to “maintain a Power 6 narrative.”
There are currently five power conferences — the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12. They generate the most revenue, are guaranteed top football bowl bids and have been granted some autonomy by the NCAA to establish rules.
The AAC is part of next lower tier, known as the Group of Five.
There is no mention of expansion in the AAC’s strategic plan. The conference recently added Wichita State, giving it 12 members for both football and basketball.
Good luck getting everyone to acknowledge that, AAC. That would mean giving the AAC increased voting power as well as vastly increasing the CFP money they get. Nobody outside the AAC wants either of those things for the AAC. Besides, what are the metrics showing that the AAC belongs?
Is the Orange Bowl going to take the AAC champ rather than ND/B10 #2/SEC #2? Would any other NY6 bowl want the AAC champ locked in? Shouldn’t the AAC at least be the G5 representative several years in a row before making this sort of claim?
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http://theamerican.org/news/2017/5/1/GEN_0501173329.aspx
Here’s an article from the AAC’s website.
It contains this link to the strategic plan: http://sidearm.sites.s3.amazonaws.com/theamerican.sidearmsports.com/documents/2017/5/1/AACStrategyGuide_WEB_FINAL.pdf
It’s a 24 page pdf, but many pages are essentially blank.
They’re also trying to start the hashtag: #AMERICANPOW6R
Here are some of their annual football goals:
* CFP contender
* 1 top 10 team
* NY6 bowl
* 2-4 top 25 teams
* 7-8 bowl teams
* Bowl record above 0.500
* 0.500 record vs P5 teams
* TV ratings “in range of” P5 conferences
* Contenders for major player awards (Heisman, etc)
* Occasional appearance of ESPN’s College GameDay on their campuses
How many of those goals did they meet last season?
#1 no
#2 no
#3 no
#4 no
#5 yes (7)
#6 no (2-5)
#7 no (8-11)
#8 no (AACCG got 2.1M – the 3 B12 regular games that day averaged slightly more and the 4 P5 CCGs destroyed it with a low of 5.3M)
#9 no
#10 no* (they went to Army-Navy but Navy hosted in Baltimore and not on campus; Temple has hosted once – may be only time an AAC school has)
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Maybe they are laying the groundwork for a potential combination of B12/AAC hopefully maintaining P5 status if/when UT/OU leave?
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You mean because of comments like this? https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2017/05/01/paul-finebaum-think-oklahoma-wants-big-12-desperately
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The biggest questions with Big XII schools going to the AAC is who would be they be? Plus Who would remain in a Power 5 Conference? Who would go Mountain West? Who might get left out? My call. Under almost any scenario ( short of the Big XII not breaking up), West Virginia is obvious AAC because of how close it is to Eastern schools like Temple and Cincinnati, and the fact they sell out each week. TCU goes as well because of their SMU rivalry.
Beyond that, I sm picking Texas and Kansas for the Big 10, and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State for the SEC. Texas Tech and Baylor for the MWC, and Iowa State and Kansas State left out.
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ccrider55,
“Maybe they are laying the groundwork for a potential combination of B12/AAC hopefully maintaining P5 status if/when UT/OU leave?”
I just don’t see how that works.
What the AAC is lacking is elite teams with elite players. OU and UT are the B12 programs that best fit that description consistently. Maybe TCU now.
W% ranking since 2000:
B12 – 3. OU, 5 TCU, 9. UT, 21. WV, 26, 31, 32, 76, 97, 107
AAC – 29, 41, 46, 48, 56, 57, 71, 81, 88, 94, 110, 111
The B12 has 4 top 25 programs. The AAC has 0. All the P5 conferences have at least 3 (P12) with a max of 5 (ACC, SEC). If UT and OU leave the B12, TCU and WV are the only top 25 programs available with OkSU just outside. Would adding TCU and WV boost the AAC or would the AAC pull TCU and WV down? Would TCU and WV be willing to go? Would the AAC be willing and able to drop their worst programs to up their average.
There is a lot of dead weight at the bottom of the AAC that really hurts them. The B10 also has a weak bottom and yet 6 B10 schools are ahead of the entire AAC and the B10 has more schools to help carry that dead weight. The B12 is the weakest of the P5 conferences but it has little dead weight.
I just don’t see any way for them to pick up many solid programs. It’s hard to predict what would happen if OU and UT left. Who goes with them as partners (if anyone)? Do the little brothers go with them? Does KU? Who would want the rest? Would there be massive realignment of the G5 into more regional conferences or would they continue to have massive overlap (AAC, CUSA and SB especially). Would the MWC push further east than maybe TT? Would the MAC want anyone beyond maybe ISU?
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“What the AAC is lacking is elite teams with elite players.”
They are lacking P5 designation, which B12 has. I’d think they’d try to arrange to keep a “grandfathered” P5 status as long as possible, perhaps by negotiating an earlier than ’24 realignment. Benefits rest of B12 and improves AAC members.
Not saying it will happen, but seems far more likely than simply elevating a 6th conf after decades of working the other direction.
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ccrider55,
“They are lacking P5 designation, which B12 has.”
They are also lacking elite programs which the B12 also has.
“I’d think they’d try to arrange to keep a “grandfathered” P5 status as long as possible, perhaps by negotiating an earlier than ’24 realignment.”
I think the others learned from grandfathering the BE into the BCS that it’s a bad plan long term. Besides, that might protect the B12 minus OU and UT for a few years but not if the AAC adds a few B12 teams. If 2/3 of the new conference isn’t former B12 members I don’t think grandfathering applies.
If OU and UT aren’t in the conference, why would the P4 want to share the money and power with a bunch of middle of the road or worse programs? Under the BCS they developed metrics to determine which conferences deserved AQ status.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/537751
There are three metrics by which the BCS evaluates every FBS conference to determine whether or not it will have an automatic bid to the BCS bowls.
First off, the BCS has stated that no current conference will lose its AQ (Automatic Qualifying) BCS bid before the 2013 season. Secondly, the BCS has limited the number of AQ conferences to no more than seven and no less than five.
The three metrics evaluated over the final BCS standings are:
1) Points for number of teams in the Top 25 BCS standings.
2) Highest ranking team in the final BCS standings.
3) Average computer rankings of every conference team.
To automatically qualify, a conference must score 50 percent of the value of the top team in Metric 1 and finish in the top six among all conferences in both Metrics 2 and 3.
A conference can petition for inclusion if they finish seventh in either Metric 2 or 3, while also finishing at least fifth in the other and maintaining a 33 percent value in the first metric.
Let’s assume they make a small adjustment to a minimum of 4 and a maximum of 7, and then replace the BCS standings with the CFP standings.
#1 – Top 25 points
Finishing 25th in the BCS is not the same as finishing first. Here is the breakdown of points awarded:
Top six finish: 4 points
Top 12 finish: 3 points
Top 18 finish: 2 points
Top 25 finish: 1 point
Additionally, small conferences with less than 10 members will be given a plus-25 percent bonus, while conferences with 10 or 11 members will be given a plus-12.5 percent bonus.
So far the B10 leads with 40 points over 3 years of the CFP.
B10 – 100%
SEC – 90%
P12 – 85%
B12 – 84.3%
ACC – 77.5%
AAC – 15%
#2 – Highest ranked team
SEC – 1.33
ACC – 2
B10 – 3.33
P12 – 4
B12 – 5.33
AAC – 26.33* (unranked in 2014 so I gave them #37 based on the highest team in the Massey composite)
#3 – Average computer ranking
This is for 2016 only:
SEC – 39.8
ACC – 40.7
P12 – 45.5
B12 – 51.2
B10 – 51.4
AAC – 69.0
Those results don’t work for the AAC, nor do I think they’d work for the rest of the B12 long term or a combination of the AAC and B12. The AAC was a distant 6th in every category with the gap between #1 and #5 much less than the gap from #5 to #6.
“Benefits rest of B12 and improves AAC members.”
I think the best the other B12 members can hope for is to cling to the current B12 as long as possible to maximize their money while they can. They can’t keep OU and UT from leaving, but they can hope for a negotiated exit fee or a maximum number of years of big paydays. Besides, UT and OU might not leave or might not be allowed to without taking some of them along.
Would the other B12 members benefit more from working with the AAC or the MWC? I think some would prefer to look west while others would look east. That sort of divide is enough to scuttle a deal.
“Not saying it will happen, but seems far more likely than simply elevating a 6th conf after decades of working the other direction”
If you set the bar at 0.00001% then many things seem more likely. I don’t think there’s any realistic way the P5 ever becomes the P6 again while there is some chance it becomes the P4.
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ISU is B1G quality academically. They would try for the B1G.
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In the event of a Big 12 implosion, its weakest members (Iowa State and Kansas State) would sink no lower than the AAC. Both have decades of big-time heritage and clearly are on a higher rung in enrollment or facilities than nearly all members of the MAC or Mountain West.
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vp19,
“In the event of a Big 12 implosion, its weakest members (Iowa State and Kansas State) would sink no lower than the AAC. Both have decades of big-time heritage and clearly are on a higher rung in enrollment or facilities than nearly all members of the MAC or Mountain West.”
I don’t see the AAC as clearly above the MWC. Yes, the MWC has lost most of its elite teams (TCU, Utah, BYU). Yes, most western schools are a little smaller. I have no basis for comparing the quality of facilities.
Size:
Over 50k:
AAC – 1 (UCF – 68k)
MWC – 0
40-50k:
AAC – 3
MWC – 0
30-40k:
AAC – 2
MWC – 3
20-30k:
AAC – 2
MWC – 6
Under 20k:
AAC – 4
MWC – 3
Average:
AAC – 29,000
MWC – 24,000
That’s not a huge difference, especially since UCF accounts for almost all of it (AAC averages about 24,500 without UCF).
Average division rankings by Sagarin
2016:
AAC – 11.5
MWC – 14
2015:
AAC – 11.5
MWC – 14
2014:
AAC – 15
MWC – 14
The AAC has been better, but not by a lot.
My question is whether ISU or KSU might prefer the travel in the MWC enough to go there (or even the MAC for ISU) instead. I’m not questioning that the G5 conferences would want them, but at that level the cost of travel can eat up the advantages pretty quickly.
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If the Big 12 implodes, the remaining members aren’t going to be absorbed by a mid-major conference. It is going to be the opposite. The Big 12 name still carries more weight than the AAC (or whomever).
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Scarlet_Lutefisk,
“If the Big 12 implodes, the remaining members aren’t going to be absorbed by a mid-major conference. It is going to be the opposite. The Big 12 name still carries more weight than the AAC (or whomever).”
In general, I agree. But the B12 may not work that way for these reasons.
1. It depends on how many remaining members there are and who they are.
Say the P16 happened with UT, TT, OU and OkSU, plus KU joining the B10 (no idea who would be #16). That leaves ISU, KSU, BU, TCU and WV. Those 5 teams aren’t enough to really keep the B12 brand going. They’ll own the name but it will be greatly devalued (like the BE now). At that point WV might consider a better fit closer to home, leaving 4 schools. Would that really be the B12 remnants taking in AAC and/or MWC teams at that point or would it be the AAC and MWC expanding?
If only 2 B12 schools leave, then clearly the B12 would try to reload from the AAC, MWC and independents. It may or may not stay a power conference, but it would be the B12 existing.
2. We don’t know if the remnants are unified in their goals beyond making maximum money.
Do some schools want to look west for new members while others want to look east? Do they disagree on how to weight different sports, different regions, academics and other aspects of candidates? It’s possible they can’t agree quickly enough to prevent complete disintegration.
3. The remnants may carry less weight than you think.
ISU is weak athletically and brings a tiny fan base and no major metro areas. Only 6 of their games were on TV last year, 4 on FS1 and 1 on ESPNU. Their only ESPN game was against OU.
KSU is not as weak athletically but is poor academically and brings a small fan base and no major metro areas. They only had 8 games on TV last year, and again OU was their only ESPN-level game. They made ESPN2 twice (UT, Baylor).
TCU has been good at CFB and is in a major market but has a tiny fan base due to its size. They had 3 broadcast games plus 2 ESPN games (BU, WV, OU, SMU on Friday night and AR).
BU has its scandal and brings religious issues for some conferences in addition to a history of weak athletics. But at least it’s in TX. It still only made major networks with the right opponents.
WV has rabid support from a small state and is solid athletically but is academically mediocre and lacks a major market in addition to being geographically isolated. They were similar to BU in terms of TV opportunities.
If these are your best TV properties, they’re looking at an FS1 type of deal that wouldn’t pay much. At some point, there just isn’t much value.
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Note that many of the “tiny fan bases” are relative to P5 norms. If you look at those schools versus the schools that the most attractive of the AAC and MWC would be leaving behind, then it seems to me that for AAC and MWC invitees, the grass would STILL look greener on the other side of the fence.
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BruceMcF,
“Note that many of the “tiny fan bases” are relative to P5 norms. If you look at those schools versus the schools that the most attractive of the AAC and MWC would be leaving behind, then it seems to me that for AAC and MWC invitees, the grass would STILL look greener on the other side of the fence.”
Maybe. There isn’t good data on fanbase size, but I’ll use what exists:
https://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/
Nate Silver estimated fan base sizes from Google search data and other things in 2011.
B10 for comparison: #1, 2, 3, 12, 15, 18, 20, 27, 28, 32, 44, 46, 54, 58
B12 – 5, 19, 29, 33, 40, 41, 52, 60, 65, 85
But the top ones are the ones most likely to leave for other P5 conferences. So let’s break it down a little.
Most desirable members – 5. UT, 19. OU, 40. KU
Little brothers with a decent shot to tag along – 33. TT, 41. OkSU
Might be wanted somewhere – 29. WV, 65. TCU
Least desirable – 52. ISU, 60. KSU, 85. BU
AAC – 47, 53, 55, 68, 70, 78, 80, 81, 97, 105, 111, 112
MWC – 57, 72, 74, 76, 77, 83, 87, 90, 94, 102, 119, 120
The B12 fan bases would certainly help, but they wouldn’t convince the TV networks to suddenly start paying big money which was my point. If you’re best game is #52 ISU vs #60 KSU, only a small channel wants you.
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That confirms my sense of the matter.
I was only considering which direction the sh!t would roll, not a Big12 that loses four or five of its most popular schools and reloads from the AAC & MWC would take a big paycut after the realignment.
Say that Texas, OU are joined by Kansas, OkState & TTech on the way out the door.
Sorting the balance: #29 WVU, #52 ISU, #60 KSU, #64 TCU, #80 Baylor.
Pool the three together:
|29| B12#1, AAC#1, B12#2, AAC#2, AAC#3, MWC#1, B12#3, B12#4 |64|
|68| AAC#4, AAC#5, AAC#6, MWC#2, MWC#3, MWC#4, MWC#5, AAC#6 |78|
|80| AAC#7, AAC#8, MWC#6, B12#5, MWC#7, MWC#8, MWC#9, AAC#9 |97|
|102| MWC#10, AAC#10, AAC#11, AAC#12, MWC#11, MWC#12 |112|
With names, that is:
|29| WVU, UConn, ISU, USF, UCF, Boise, KSU, TCU |64|
|68| ECU, UC, Wyoming, Hawaii, Fresno State, SDSU, Navy |78|
|80| Memphis, Temple, Air Force, Baylor, Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico, SMU |97|
|102| UNLV, Tulsa, Tulane, Houston, Utah State, San Jose State |120|
4 out of those 5 hypothetical “B12 leftovers” are in the top eight of that pool … and only one in the bottom half. I think that those “B12 leftovers” would be in a position to form the two divisions they want to form out of that pool.
And, of course, even more if there are fewer than five that make a getaway. Any of Texas Tech, Ok. State and/or Kansas failing to find a lifeboat to the new “P4” would only strengthen their hand.
Also strengthening their hand would be if the departures are sequential, rather than in a rush, because then the first refills would be based on a stronger initial line-up, before the balance of the life boat seats are sorted out.
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BruceMcF,
“I was only considering which direction the sh!t would roll, not a Big12 that loses four or five of its most popular schools and reloads from the AAC & MWC would take a big paycut after the realignment.”
And I don’t disagree that the B12 remnants could reload with AAC/MWC schools.
The questions are:
1. Would those B12 schools all want to stay together or would they have separate agendas?
Without the full P5 payday, does WV want to keep playing the B12 remnants? Would the remnants fight over adding AAC versus MWC schools?
2. Would some AAC/MWC schools say no due to travel concerns or poor fits?
Unless it’s a huge pay increase the extra travel might lead to a loss in net revenue.
3. Is there any way this would be considered a P5 conference?
I don’t know if the bottom half of the B12 justifies grandfathering in the new conference, especially if they end up as the minority of the conference (5 of 12, for example).
—
“With names, that is:
|29| WVU, UConn, ISU, USF, UCF, Boise, KSU, TCU |64|
|68| ECU, UC, Wyoming, Hawaii, Fresno State, SDSU, Navy |78|
|80| Memphis, Temple, Air Force, Baylor, Colorado State, Nevada, New Mexico, SMU |97|
|102| UNLV, Tulsa, Tulane, Houston, Utah State, San Jose State |120|
4 out of those 5 hypothetical “B12 leftovers” are in the top eight of that pool … and only one in the bottom half. I think that those “B12 leftovers” would be in a position to form the two divisions they want to form out of that pool.”
It all comes down to what TV will pay them. Putting UConn and WY in the same conference is a lot of travel (not to mention HI for football). Can they get paid enough to extend from CT to FL to CA to WY and be profitable?
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“It all comes down to what TV will pay them. Putting UConn and WY in the same conference is a lot of travel (not to mention HI for football). Can they get paid enough to extend from CT to FL to CA to WY and be profitable?”
I don’t reckon it just fills up from top of that list to bottom to get to 11, then Baylor … Boise is enough of an island, they don’t need to add Hawaii as well to the Western Division.
In a twelve team East/West divisional structure, you’ve got one or two cross-division games a year. Creating balanced divisions with team sports and going to mostly divisional play could substantially cut team sport traveling costs … and they would still have enough clout when they form the conference to get affiliates to balance divisions in subsidy sports as needed.
East: WVU, UConn, USF, UCF … maybe two of UC, ECU, Temple
West: ISU, Boise, TCU, KSU … maybe two of [Navy/WSU], Memphis, Air Force, Colorado State, Houston
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https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/paul-finebaum-oklahoma-desperate-get-big-12/
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/05/02/10-fbs-teams-easiest-non-conference-schedules-2017/101178712/
This is a bit of a surprise. A list of the 10 easiest OOC schedules for P5 teams includes 4 P12 teams (also 4 SEC and 2 B12).
1. UW
2. CO
3. KU
4. AZ
5. Baylor
6. MO
7. MS
8. AR
9. OrSU
10. MsSU
Some of those schools make sense because they’ve been bad for a while (CO, KU). Others have no good excuse (UW, BU, etc).
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Just for giggles:
http://www.coloradoan.com/story/sports/college/football/2017/05/02/time-again-ramp-up-college-football-realignment-talk/309138001/
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“I think the Big 12 is in trouble and I think this is something we’ve been able to detect for some time,” said radio and TV personality Paul Finebaum on a recent weekly radio show. “I don’t think the Big 12 as we know it will still be in existence in five years. There are schools in the Big 12 that have looked to get out, and I think, continue to look to get out. They can deny it all they want, but they don’t have the what the SEC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and what the ACC are going to have, and that’s their own network — which is critical in this world of exploding television reality. I don’t know how you can survive like that.”
Finebaum said he knows for a fact that Oklahoma wants out of the Big 12.
I don’t think that’s new information.
Texas – the school with its own “we’re not sharing” TV network, the main motivation for the four schools that left the Big 12, and Oklahoma were in serious talks with the Pac 10 at the time. With CU in and Utah set to join, OU and Texas were prepared to take Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and other Texas schools with them to the West Coast to help form “The Pac 16.” They wanted to leave CU out and include Baylor. Utah also would have been out.
It was reportedly within about 30 minutes of going down. It was all up to the Longhorns. One of our staff members had a friend in the Oklahoma Athletic Department. He called the university. “What are you guys going to do?” he asked. The friend replied, “Whatever Texas does.”
Meanwhile, the MW was keeping Boise State on hold in case this happened. The reason? If those four schools departed the Big 12, the MW was looking at adding Kansas State and Iowa State and who knows who else instead. The Mountain West was in a position to add multiple big name schools and try to become a “power” conference. We were on pins and needles.
In the end, it didn’t happen. Texas decided to stay and the Pac 12 promised to “never believe a word they say ever again.” The MW added Boise State, and ultimately Utah State, Fresno State and Nevada.
That’s a little more inside info than I recall hearing before. The MWC targeted KSU and ISU? That’s interesting. I’m presuming they figured KU would have a better offer.
So if UT and OU left now, I assume the AAC would also consider those 2 schools. Which way would ISU and KSU go? And what are the chances that the ACC might add WV and UConn if the B12 crumbled? You have to assume the B10 and/or SEC gained some schools, so the ACC may feel obligated to keep up and those 2 schools fit their footprint. Would the P12 take anyone?
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Why would the ACC consider UConn and WV. The ACC rather strongly rejected WV for academic reasons. Has that changed?
UConn might make more sense, but the ACC does not seem all that interested in UConn. It has been long rumored that BC has an unofficial monopoly on New England. Beyond that UConn football is really a dumpster fire now, with a very uncertain chance of improvement. Would the football schools, (FSU, Clemson) accept such a low level football program?
At least WV has some football history and quality.
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Jersey Bernie,
“Why would the ACC consider UConn and WV.”
It assumes the B10 and/or SEC have expanded to 16+ with the cream of the B12. In that scenario the ACC may feel the need to keep up in terms of size. If so, their expansion options are limited. Most of the B12 is too far away, but WV is close to their footprint and would fit well with UL and Pitt among others while bring some CFB power. UConn is inside their footprint, brings another MBB power and could increase their penetration into the Boston and NYC markets.
“The ACC rather strongly rejected WV for academic reasons. Has that changed?”
They also took UL. There is little academic separation between those two.
“UConn might make more sense, but the ACC does not seem all that interested in UConn. It has been long rumored that BC has an unofficial monopoly on New England. Beyond that UConn football is really a dumpster fire now, with a very uncertain chance of improvement. Would the football schools, (FSU, Clemson) accept such a low level football program?”
If they feel pressure to expand, UConn’s acceptability may change. How many realistic candidates would the ACC have above UConn?
As for the football schools, this would also give them a chance to redo the divisions potentially.
“At least WV has some football history and quality.”
Which is why they make a good pair. UConn has better academics while WV helps CFB. Both are solid in MBB with UConn having an elite recent history.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19302845/judge-margaret-taylor-calls-south-florida-bulls-coach-charlie-strong-player-arrests
A judge calls out Charlie Strong after 2 of his players were arrested for violent felonies over the span of a couple of months. I’m all for that sentiment, but Strong has only been there since December and these players aren’t his recruits. It seems a bit early to blame him for their behavior.
“Coach Strong, if you are listening, in the last couple of months there have been two arrests of your players for very violent felonies. This court, and I’m sure I’m not alone, questions whether you have control over your players. It’s fairly clear you do not have control of them off the field, and I guess only time will tell whether you have control over them on the field.
“I would implore you to think long and hard about whether being head coach at USF is a good fit for you before any other members of this community have to suffer at the hands of one of your players.”
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The judge has now removed herself from the case.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/05/03/conference-races-college-football-spring-practice/101236382/
A look at all the conference races after spring practice.
ACC
Favorite: Florida State. You can’t go wrong between FSU and Clemson, but the Seminoles hold a slight advantage coming out of the spring. Now, about that opener with Alabama …
Dark horse: Miami (Fla.). There’s a clear issue in experience at quarterback. Mark Richt and the Hurricanes still look like the early favorite in the Coastal Division.
Bringing up the rear: Virginia. Bronco Mendenhall’s rebuild is underway in Charlottesville. Don’t expect any major breakthrough in 2017.
Big 12
Favorite: Oklahoma. The Sooners will begin the summer in the Big 12 driver’s seat even if it hasn’t been a pretty month-plus for Bob Stoops and OU.
Dark horse: Oklahoma State. It might seem strange to call Oklahoma State a sleeper, but the loaded and explosive Cowboys are still flying under the radar.
Bringing up the rear: Kansas. Last year’s win against Texas proved that all is not lost in Lawrence. That’s not to say the Jayhawks don’t seem destined to bring up the rear in the conference standings.
Big Ten
Favorite: Ohio State. An influx of early enrollees this spring helped Urban Meyer and OSU begin the process of solidifying a depth chart ravaged by departures for the NFL.
Dark horse: Wisconsin. A smooth schedule, improved quarterback play and the program’s annual consistency point toward a potential banner year for the Badgers.
Bringing up the rear: Rutgers. The long road back continues. It wasn’t a pretty spring for the Scarlet Knights.
Pac-12
Favorite: Southern California. Let the hype machine roll for Sam Darnold and the Trojans.
Dark horse: UCLA. Meanwhile, the Bruins’ own star quarterback, Josh Rosen, seemed healthy and ready to hit his stride during the spring.
Bringing up the rear: California. The Golden Bears won’t be terrible, but someone’s got to finish last.
SEC
Favorite: Alabama. Surprised? It’s the same old story in Tuscaloosa.
Dark horse: Georgia. In this case, teams such as LSU and Auburn don’t qualify for the dark-horse label. After going 8-5 in 2016, Georgia definitely qualifies.
Bringing up the rear: Mississippi and Vanderbilt. The talent’s there, but how will the Rebels respond to the program’s self-imposed bowl ban? And while Vanderbilt is experienced, can Derek Mason lead the Commodores back into bowl play?
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http://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/braves-attendance-suntrust-park-just-above-last-year-average/BY0PRh4YtD5nl8lgUBmHGP/
A new stadium isn’t everything.
The Braves got 2 sellouts to open the season but since then they’re averaging almost exactly what they did at Turner Field last year (25,160 vs 25,017 in 2016).
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I have a friend, a former life-long Braves fan, who dropped them because he was so mad about them leaving for the suburbs. It could be he’s not alone.
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The traffic clusterfuck doesn’t help either. I’ve heard people claiming how much better they’ve handled it after the first couple of games. I think these numbers explain why. It should be a lot easier to handle less than 2/3 of the traffic.
Maybe when I-85 opens back up some people will be less scared of the traffic and give it a try. Deep down I don’t think the Braves really care because the new stadium gives them new revenue streams (they own the surrounding parking, and rent space to stores and restaurants) and that was the whole point. This whole thing was a reaction to the bad TV deal they signed years ago and can’t get out of.
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Bostonians weep for him.
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This could be a Wisconsin v. Purdue type situation, I wonder if the Braves sort of replace fans from south of the Cobb County with more Tennesseans who might be willing to make a drive like Nebraska-based fans of the KC Royals do.
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There is some of that trade off.
http://www.ajc.com/news/sports/braves-ticket-buyers/
That map shows ticket sales from 2012 to give you an idea of where the fans live. The stadium didn’t really move far enough to reduce the drive for most of the northern fans. I-285 is so jammed at rush hour that getting downtown wasn’t much harder than getting to the new location. Plus, the fans may live in those areas but many of them work in town so the move didn’t help at all.
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Team is terrible. Braves had trouble drawing when they were good.
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True, but most major cities can fill a brand new ballpark for a year just out of fan curiosity despite having a bad team. I think the Braves overestimated their fan base.
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This is a pretty bold prediction.
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It’s not too bold. That’s when their TV deal and GOR ends. Many people have speculated they’d be gone by then at the latest.
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Richard Deitsch had Jim Miller (guy who wrote the book on ESPN) on his podcast and Miller says he doesn’t believe the ACCN will ever go beyond digital according to this tweet from an FSU blogger.
Ira SchoffelVerified account @IraSchoffel May 2
Ira Schoffel Retweeted Richard Deitsch
Notable: Jim Miller, who literally wrote the book on ESPN, says he doesn’t think ESPN will go through with an ACC channel beyond digital.
You can listen to the podcast here:
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/si-media-podcast-with-richard-deitsch/id997819235?mt=2#episodeGuid=gid%3A%2F%2Fart19-episode-locator%2FV0%2FcuJN5fyUrkh30fCMZ3EvSi81oC1TX-CCcpqkf44-Arw
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https://apnews.com/541de26ccb9c45f193f548991aa27f68
Shocking news for Illini fans – your AD has been unprofitable. IL lost $6.2M in 2016.
He said Illinois generated $91.6 million in revenue in 2016 while spending $97.8 million. In the Big Ten that year, 14 other departments generated an average of $113 million while spending $109 million.
“Our biggest source of untapped revenue right now is you see 20,000 empty seats in our football stadium and 5,000 empty seats in the basketball arena and that represents ticket revenue, concessions, parking, private donations, merchandise,” Whitman said. “There’s probably $10 to $15 million in revenue per year that we’re leaving on the table by not having the success that we need in those two priority spots.”
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http://www.omaha.com/uno/reports-missouri-valley-likely-to-add-valparaiso-as-sole-addition/article_d192fe1e-2f8e-11e7-8aa9-c39ca1fa12b2.html
It looks like Valparaiso will replace Wichita State in the MVC with no further expansion of the MVC.
That would leave a hole in the Horizon league as they’d drop to 9 members.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19288912/how-grad-transfers-become-college-football-free-agents
Grad transfers are CFB’s free agents and their numbers are growing rapidly.
Notable 2017 graduate transfers
QB Brandon Harris: LSU to North Carolina
RB Stanton Truitt: Auburn to North Carolina
OL Cam Dillard: Florida to North Carolina
OL Khaliel Rodgers: USC to North Carolina
QB Max Browne: USC to Pitt
TE Matt Flanagan: Rutgers to Pitt
CB Dee Delaney: Citadel to Miami
QB Thomas Sirk: Duke to East Carolina
CB Devin Butler: Notre Dame to Syracuse
CB Jordan Martin: Toledo to Syracuse
CB Cedric Jiles: Mississippi State to Wake Forest
OT Evan Lisle: Ohio State to Duke
WR James Clark: Ohio State to Virginia Tech
WR Jalen Brown: Oregon to Northwestern
DB Josh Okonye: Wake Forest to Purdue
LB T.J. McCollum: Western Kentucky to Purdue
WR Corey Holmes: Notre Dame to Purdue
DB Shaq Wiggins: Louisville to Tennessee
RB Gus Edwards: Miami to Rutgers
OL Wilson Bell: Florida State to Auburn
OL Casey Dunn: Jacksonville State to Auburn
OL Christian Daimler: Oklahoma to Texas A&M
QB Kyle Bolin: Louisville to Rutgers
DL Scott Pagano: Clemson to Oregon
DB Adrian Baker: Clemson to Oklahoma State
OL Aaron Cochran: Cal to Oklahoma State
WR Jeff Badet: Kentucky to Oklahoma
OL Dwayne Johnson: Nebraska to Texas Tech
OL Zach Hannon: Nebraska to Kansas
OL David Dawson: Michigan to Iowa State
That’s just the notable ones (mostly P5 to P5).
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http://www.espn.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/142275/signs-point-to-2017-being-big-tens-highest-scoring-season-on-record
Signs point to this potentially being the highest scoring year in the B10 ever.
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http://www.ncaa.com/news/volleyball-men/article/2017-05-06/2017-mens-volleyball-championship-ohio-state-takes-title
OSU repeats as MVB national champions, adding to the B10’s total titles for the year.
Meanwhile UMD swept the lacrosse tournaments again (although OSU’s men made them work for it). Both Terps teams are ranked #1 so hopefully the B10 can bring home some more hardware.
Eventually an old B10 member will win a B10 lacrosse title.
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Been 42 years since the Terp men have won an NCAA lacrosse title. Heck, I was a sophomore at College Park that spring.
Both Maryland teams have been seeded #1 in their respective tournaments.
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Look who graduated. Congrats, well done.
http://610wtvn.iheart.com/onair/wtvn-news-hold-47241/look-who-graduated-15808420/
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http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/05/the_sec_network_is_still_the_k.html
SEC Network valued four times as much as Big Ten Network
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Some tidbits:
The SEC Network is valued at $4.692 billion — a slight dip from its 2015 valuation of $4.77 billion — while the Big Ten Network is at $1.142 billion and Pac-12 Networks lags behind at $305 million. In 2015, SNL Kagan valued the Big Ten Network at $1.59 billion.
…
The SEC Network’s lofty valuation is despite losing eight million subscribers in the last two years, according to SNL Kagan estimates. Most industry experts have assessed SEC Network at 70 million subscribers — the estimates pegged it at 69.1 million in Aug. 2015 — but SNL Kagan end-of-2016 data put it at 61.4 million subscribers.
…
The SEC Network’s average monthly subscriber fee is $0.74, according to SNL Kagan’s most recent data, a good chunk more than the Big Ten ($0.43) and Pac-12 ($0.27). That average monthly subscriber fee, which takes into account in-market and out-of-market prices, makes the SEC Network the fifth-most expensive sports network for consumers behind ESPN ($7.21), NFL Network ($1.39), FS1 ($1.15) and ESPN2 ($0.90).
Based on subscriber number and fee estimates, the SEC Network is generating approximately $545 million off subscriber fees alone — more than NBC Sports, MLB Network and NBA TV. That doesn’t take into account the revenue generated through SEC Network’s placement on over-the-top platforms Sling TV, DirecTV Now and the recently launched Hulu Live TV. SEC Network recently announced it would soon be available in Mexico which should boost revenue albeit potentially minimally.
…
What will be interesting is whether the SEC Network can improve upon its $1.30 in-market subscription fee in future carriage negotiations with cable providers. If it can do that — and it is believed to be well within the realm of possibilities — that could further push the SEC Network ahead of its conference TV competition.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/05/08/power-five-tv-rights-deals-amazon-google
Andy Staples looks into the future of CFB TV deals and the potential importance of Silicon Valley.
The easy hot take given these circumstances is that the sports media rights bubble will pop, and the money college leagues make from selling the broadcast rights to football and basketball will peak just before the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 deals expire in the middle of the next decade. The revenue that has fueled huge coaching salaries, a facilities arms race and angst over the size of the cut the majority of the labor force receives will slow or fall. Power 5 athletic directors will have to—gasp—manage money responsibly instead of simply relying on the next media rights bump to cover any overspending.
The reality is more complicated and less certain. Like newspapers before them, ESPN and Fox will grapple with disruption to their business model and ultimately may have to remake themselves if they want to continue to thrive in the new media landscape. But reflexively forecasting doom assumes television networks are the only entities that will bid on sports rights in the future*. That is almost certainly not going to be the case. “I really see a time when there are going to be a lot of players in the marketplace and there are going to be a lot of distribution methods,” Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said. “The unknown is how much is it all worth? I don’t think there’s anyone who legitimately knows what it’s going to be worth.”
…
Or these companies might kick the tires on sports rights and decide they don’t need them. Remember, they’re already wildly successful without live sports. This is the gamble Delany took when the Big Ten opted for six-year deals for its Tier 1 and Tier 2 rights. “There’s no doubt we’re in a disruptive environment,” Delany said. “There definitely is money and interest on the sideline. It really hasn’t emerged very much yet, but I’m sure that there is—whether it’s Apple or Google or Hulu or any number of companies.”
Delany is betting that demand for Big Ten football will be so valuable that the revenue from the next deals will outpace these deals. But he also has a hedge; the Big Ten Network’s deal with Fox runs until 2032. On the other end of the spectrum is the ACC, which allowed ESPN to lock up its rights until 2036 in return for getting a conference network that is scheduled to launch in 2019. “If you go shorter, you take out a little more risk,” Delany said. “But you also have a little more upside.”
…
The Big 12 may have strife within its ranks, but its media rights deals actually are among the best in the space considering the quality of the football offerings. Bowlsby said each of the 10 schools will receive close to $40 million a year by the end of the contract, and that doesn’t include the Tier 3 deals that each school has made individually. (The Longhorn Network partnership between Texas and ESPN is the most lucrative example.) Every school in the Big 12 makes more off its third-tier deal than each school in the Pac-12 makes off the league owned-and-operated Pac-12 Network. The underwhelming performance of the Pac-12 Network continues to be a sore spot, but Scott said it isn’t reason to panic. “There’s anxiety in our conference, but I think it’s more about the future,” Scott said. “We’re reading about the success of the SEC Network and the Big Ten’s new TV deal. There’s fear of might we fall behind in the future. But sitting here today, we’re in great shape.”
That anxiety about the future isn’t limited to the Pac-12. Every league is feeling it as the cable networks hemorrhage subscribers. An industry that has become accustomed to economic growth now has to grapple with the very real possibility of flat revenue or less revenue in the near future. Of course, the possibility is just as real that some deep-pocketed newcomers could swoop in from Silicon Valley and keep the money flowing. “We could be right, or we could be wrong,” Delany said. “History will tell us.”
In a separate piece at the bottom, Staples said this:
It’s fun to poke fun at the Big 12 for being completely dysfunctional most of the time, but the demise of the league is not a fait accompli. If the football product gets better toward the end of this media rights deal, the Big 12 will look like a more attractive conference home than the Pac-12 will.
Really? Yes, the B12 payout per school is higher right now. But isn’t the instability of the B12 a factor in how attractive the conference is as a home? How much money is it worth to know that no school is seriously considering leaving your conference? How big would the gap have to get to persuade any P12 members to go join the B12? And this is completely ignoring the academic and cultural differences which is unwise for conference realignment discussions.
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http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/05/how_espns_struggles_could_dera.html
How ESPN’s problems could hurt CFB.
The major question is what happens when ESPN and other TV networks decide they don’t want to keep upping the ante each time a rights deal comes up for renewal?
…
Could cord-cutting and other issues eventually negatively impact the more powerful Power 5 conferences? In theory, absolutely.
If ESPN continues to lose subscribers at its current rate, it might have no choice but to pass on expensive college rights given its billions of dollars of overhead for NFL and NBA media rights. The company has already made small cost-saving measures like last week’s layoffs, but if it wants to save significant money, it’ll have to reevaluate its right-securing process. Live sports television has long been considered the antidote to cord-cutting, but any time even a non-sports fan drops cable, ESPN feels it.
If ESPN isn’t as interested or as aggressive as it has been, it lowers the demand and likely reduces the cost of the rights.
…
The Big Ten should be an interesting bellwether for an evolving market. When it agreed to a deal in 2016, media observers believed ESPN might not bid on the rights given its shrinking distribution. ESPN ultimately decided to pay an average of $190 million annually but for a lesser package after reportedly bidding low on the initial package that went to FOX. Given the way the industry has changed so quickly, ESPN could be in a significantly different place, for better or worse, when the Big Ten’s rights come up for bidding again.
Adam Gajo, the sports business analyst for SNL Kagan, doesn’t expect demand to crater, though.
“Growth may slow a bit, depending on a number of factors, but the values will continue to grow, especially for top tier programming like the Power 5 conference rights,” Gajo said. “As the rights continue to increase, they may continue to be shared by multiple networks.”
…
If not the Big Ten, the SEC could be in the most stable position. It is already generating huge money from TV — the league listed $420 million in revenue from TV, radio rights in its 2016 filings — and can always bank on a large, passionate fanbase wanting its product. The league’s deal with CBS runs out after the 2023 season and the SEC should certainly be able to get more than $55 million annually for its weekly game of the week.
The downside for the SEC is that it doesn’t own a stake in its network — ESPN maintains 100 percent ownership — and instead agreed to split revenue at a rate believed to be less than 50-50 for the conference and its members. The SEC is the Power 5 conference most tied to ESPN given it leveraged ESPN’s distribution model for massive early success rather than maintain ownership but that is still far more beneficial than detrimental at this point. The SEC Network is the strongest of the three conference networks — its average subscriber cost is more than three times the Pac-12’s — and as long as it keeps showing football games, that doesn’t figure to change.
“Even in the midst of cord-cutting, we’ve seen progression in revenue,” said SEC commissioner Greg Sankey. “I think there’s actually more good news there than there is anything that’s problematic for us.”
The SEC Network has lost millions of subscribers but is still the clear king of conference TV networks.
…
Another important factor to consider is that as the market evolves, new potential distributors will pop up. Twitter and Amazon have both shown an interest in live sports programming, signing deals to stream some of NFL’s Thursday Night Football package. It’s certainly conceivable that a digital operation like Amazon or YouTube could make a play for college sports rights if ESPN and other traditional companies shy away. Thus far only smaller conferences like CUSA have opted for non-traditional partnerships, largely out of necessity, though if the money and platform is good enough, eventually bigger conferences could be enticed.
The passion for college sports, and subsequent strong viewership, will always make it attractive to rights-holders. It’s properties like college football that earn companies significant money through both subscription and advertising revenue. Even if ESPN, FS1 and other companies continue to see significant subscriber losses, the market for college media rights isn’t going to suddenly evaporate.
“One theory out there is there is a sports bubble that is about to burst for properties, but I don’t see that as being the case,” said Dan Shevchik, vice president of Sports Media Advisors. “Maybe there is greater margin pressure for people who distribute the content.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19339267/collegiate-commissioners-association-approves-early-signing-period-football
The early signing period is official.
The first early signing period for Division I will run from Dec. 20 to Dec. 22, 2017, coinciding with the first three days of the midyear junior college signing period.
Spring official visits were also approved and will start on 4/1/2018.
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Don’t write off Maryland women’s basketball despite losing two stars to the WNBA and having guard Destiny Slocum transfer (to Oregon State, it turns out). The Terrapins signed a star Florida guard who decommitted from Illinois after it changed coaches, are getting a Greek player at midyear who had been the leading scorer at the U. of Florida, and coach Brenda Frese is confident some of the understudies will step up in 2017-2018. Read this interview with her on the state of the program from Testudo Times: http://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps-womens-basketball/2017/5/4/15518938/offseason-transfers-wnba-signings-commits-schedule
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It’s official. Valpo to the MVC. How many more dominoes will fall?
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http://newsok.com/berry-tramel-would-the-big-ten-welcome-ou/article/5548411
Would the B10 accept OU?
But contrary to what I wrote the other day, getting to the Big Ten might not be as difficult as thought.
A Big Ten professor who follows college football wrote me to dispute the accepted dogma that the Big Ten would only consider members of the Association of American Universities, an elite academic organization.
He pointed out not only Michigan State’s admission to the Big Ten in 1953 (11 years before the Spartans were granted AAU membership), but the Big Ten’s frequent interest in adding Notre Dame, which also is not an AAU member.
Nebraska was an AAU member when granted Big Ten membership in 2010 but was voted out of the organization in 2011, based mainly on competitive research financing and the share of faculty in the National Academies. The Big Ten professor said Big Ten presidents knew in 2010 that Nebraska was in danger of losing its AAU membership, and then Nebraska-chancellor Harvey Perlman admitted his school had known for a decade that its AAU status was in peril.
Adding MSU over 60 years ago is irrelevant to the discussion in my opinion. This is a very different time with very different presidents. ND would a good example except that ND is an elite undergraduate school that lacks the research to make the AAU. That’s not OU at all. The NE comparison is the only one that is on point to me.
My professor source asks a solid question. Why would the Big Ten vote in a Nebraska it knew was headed out of the AAU but not an OU that has made significant academic strides over the last quarter century and long has had designs of its own on AAU membership?
1. Being in and getting voted out for technicalities (med school location, how to count ag research and faculty) is quite different from never getting in. That said, I’m guessing that getting in 100 years ago was easier than it is now.
2. Yes OU is improving, but so is the competition. Lots of schools have designs on making the AAU. That doesn’t mean they ever will. Lots of athletes have designs on playing professionally, too.
But are there other impediments should the Sooners seek Big Ten membership?
Of course.
Well, a partner is mandatory, preferably from this part of the country. And that means either Texas or Kansas (both of which are AAU members, by the way). Either would fulfill the Big Ten’s apparent requirements of new markets. Either, with OU, would provide an easy divisional break, with the Sooners and either Texas or KU joining Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois and Northwestern. And OU in a Big Ten West would help balance what is clearly an inequity, with the Big Ten East currently a far-superior football division.
All good points. And I think that if UT is the partner then it’s an obvious yes.
If KU is the potential partner, then it’s debatable:
1. Would that pair increase revenue per school?
Probably, but not by much as both are medium to small states (and split states at that). They are big brands in the two major sports, though, which can boost Tier 1 deals.
2. Would that pair hurt the B10’s academic brand?
A little bit, maybe, but not enough to have a noticeable impact I don’t think. KU is a little above NE and OU is a little below them. On the other hand, there were rumors that the presidents told Delany not to come to them with a school as academically weak as NE ever again.
3. Would that pair solve a problem the B10 has?
UMD and RU added good demographics. NE added a football brand at a time when the B10 was down. The B10 isn’t really lacking for football brands now, but one could argue you could never have too many of them. Certainly getting better divisional brand balance would be nice. A MBB brand could be helpful as the national title drought is getting pretty long. Neither state is large, but OK is growing faster than the midwest and OU provides some reach into Dallas. Maybe that’s worth it. If it’s considered as part of a strategy to eventually add UT, then certainly the presidents would accept.
4. Is it worth playing the other B10 schools less often to add them?
There is no right or wrong answer to this, but I think growing to 16 is problematic in a divisional structure. 7+2 scheduling means you only play crossover teams once every 4 years. I’d suggest dropping divisions entirely (lock 3 and rotate 6 -> playing everyone every other year) if you change the NCAA rules for a CCG. Pods don’t work well for those 16 teams.
5. Would the opportunity cost be too high?
If you take OU and KU, you are essentially done expanding. Is it worth losing any shot at the ACC schools? If UT came available later, are you willing to go beyond 16?
In a nutshell, I just don’t know how the presidents would vote. I think it would be close.
A friend in the business has been telling me for years that OU and Texas appeal to the Big Ten and its networks, because they would more easily provide night games late in the season.
Reasonable, I guess.
Going into the Big Ten with Kansas would cause the Sooners immediate problems. They would be given a nine-game conference schedule and be left with two traditional nonconference opponents in OSU and Texas.
No way would the Sooners want to end their Dallas tradition with Texas, and no way could the Sooners end Bedlam. Getting the legislature to sign off on a move to the Big Ten would be difficult enough, much less if it came with the demise of Bedlam.
Going into the Big Ten with Texas would cause less stress.
Good points.
The Big Ten would not be as beneficial for OU football as membership in the Big 12, the SEC or the Pac-12. The Sooners don’t recruit in Big Ten territory. Never have to any extent. The Big Ten’s bowl games, centered in California and Florida, would be problematic. A conference championship game in Indianapolis has little appeal compared to JerryWorld in Arlington.
The B10 used to play multiple bowls in TX and could do so again, not that OU aspires to the lesser bowls anyway. Since the B12 lost the Cotton Bowl as their top bowl, I don’t think this matters much. The CCG could rotate through JerryWorld as well as Indy. The B10 has quickly moved MBB to DC and NYC. Certainly they’d love to get CFB in Dallas.
But the academic prestige that comes with the Big Ten transforms a university. I’ve written before about Nebraska’s increased status, even without AAU membership. OU in the Big Ten would cause wild celebration in the academic centers of campus.
Yes, the faculty would certainly support it.
My Big Ten professor says that OU and Nebraska are “virtually identical” academically. I don’t know if that’s true. But the professor said that if Big Ten presidents “view Nebraska, with their level of academics, as someone with whom they wish to associate, I cannot imagine why Oklahoma would not be a school that they would welcome.”
If you ignore their pasts, OU and NE may be nearly equal. But the past influences reputation and NE has the edge there.
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Good points on all of possibilities. I am not sure i believe that the presidents said “don’t bring us another school with such weak academics” If they had reservations they wouldn’t be so cavalier. They would have rejected NE so I think that statement may be a bit overblown. i like OU and UT but struggle to think they fit culturally mostly due to geography. However, the same can be said Rutgers and Maryland but at least there you can point to all the B1G alums and huge east coast markets with strong recruiting grounds.
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Kevin,
“I am not sure i believe that the presidents said “don’t bring us another school with such weak academics” If they had reservations they wouldn’t be so cavalier. They would have rejected NE so I think that statement may be a bit overblown.”
As I said, it’s a rumor. It could also be one of those statements that’s true up until they see who the candidate actually is. I don’t think there any absolutes in realignment.
“i like OU and UT but struggle to think they fit culturally mostly due to geography.”
True, but the same is true for the eastern schools. OU fits with NE and UT fits with OU. Besides, they’re valuable. Money covers up a lot of warts.
“However, the same can be said Rutgers and Maryland but at least there you can point to all the B1G alums and huge east coast markets with strong recruiting grounds.”
Texas has big markets and excellent recruiting grounds, too. As for alumni, the #4 location for OSU alumni outside of Ohio is eastern Texas (Dallas, Austin, Houston) with 7940. That’s after DC/NoVA (9400), NYC (9200) and Chicago (8600). I’m guessing many of the western schools also have many alumni in Texas.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/05/09/espn-layoffs-media-rights-bubble-college-sports
This article was also in the print version of SI. It’s about the rights fee bubble bursting and how that will change college sports going forward.
I dispute the central premise. Rights may plateau in value, but they aren’t going to suddenly lose 50% of their value. P5 conferences will find a way to make money from digital rights as cable loses ground.
But then came the great migration away from cable and toward digital. ESPN is in 12 million fewer homes than it was in 2011, and the entire cable bundle is unraveling. A switch to a so-called à la carte model—pay only for what you want to watch—will further erode subscription-fee revenue. It could also mark the death of conference networks. “It was a nice model,” says Frank Hawkins, principal of Scalar Media Partners, a Manhattan sports and media consulting firm, “but it isn’t going to last.”
The future front in the cable-digital war is a likely reduction in rights fees. For all but the most premium content, prices are likely to drop. One lawyer present for the negotiations chuckles when he recalls ESPN’s most recent NBA contract. “If that deal was being done today, it would look much different…. We’re talking 30%-less different.” That deal, mind you, was made 16 months ago.
In a world of fragmented viewership, professional leagues will try to make up the decline in revenue in other ways. That means finding new partners. (Amazon, Twitter and Verizon have all made recent deals to stream NFL games.) Leagues can—and will—reduce labor costs (that is, player salaries) when revenues fall. They can tinker with ticket pricing. They can attempt to penetrate new markets, as the NBA has in China and India.
College athletics, though, is different. For one, there are no player salaries to slash. Cutting an unprofitable program is complicated by Title IX legislation.
…
Before declaring college sports Armageddon, to use the locution of Alabama football coach Nick Saban—he of the extension that will see him make $11.125 million this year—let’s hold up and level-set. Truly premium content—like SEC football—will always attract an audience. Like their pro sports counterparts, college sports can offset some cable-revenue declines by making deals with digital suitors. And colleges can turn to student fees and donors to help make up losses. Plus, the athletic directors have time to figure it out: Most cable deals don’t lapse until the middle of the next decade, and the NCAA’s March Madness contract with Turner/CBS runs through 2032. (After the ESPN news broke, Swofford reassured his ADs that he had spoken with ESPN president John Skipper and plans for the 2019 launch of the ACC Network would continue.)
Still, the college sports landscape will look different. The divide between the schools from the Power 5 conferences and the rest will widen. Nameplates, not 43-inch monitors, will festoon lockers. There will be fewer $600,000 strength coaches. Football players will have to nap in their dorm rooms. “The athletic department of tomorrow,” says Hawkins, “could go through what Bristol is going through today.”
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Yeah, i don’t believe we will see a big drop in rights fees. I think they may slow a bit but content has always been king. I don’t think cord cutting will continue at this pace either. There is probably a floor of people that want or need cable.
There is a reason we had over 100 million cable households at one point. People like their TV but they are watching it differently now. It’s not like people are buying 60″ flat screens to watch re-runs on Netflix. People want live sports. Do they want to pay $150 per month to their cable company for internet and TV?
Wages in the country haven’t kept pace and people now have internet bills/cell phone bills and TV bills and are looking for ways to trim costs and TV has become the lower hanging fruit. Internet prices at $50-60 per month seems very steep. 20 years ago it was essentially free with dial up. Cell phone bills were closer to $40 per month as there was no data plan requirement and cable was $35/mo.
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I see a significant drop in rights fees. ESPN was subsidized by non-sports fans as much or more than big sports fans. Skinny Bundles and a la carte are going to kill rights fees.
I’ve been saying it’s a bubble for half a decade. Wasn’t hard. If anyone ever tells you “can’t” lose money on a deal you know its a bubble, and many of you have told me over the years that live sports are DVR proof and cord-cutting proof.
Live sports aren’t. There’s a 130 people with pink-slips from the WWL to testify to that.
Sure, you can say that streaming can make up for it, but that requires a lot of assumptions I’m not making. First, it assumes that internet speed and reliability will significantly increase in the next decade, especially outside major metro areas, to levels good enough to maintain a consistent, minimally buffering, 4k/30fps/HDR to make streaming comparable to the ATSC 3.0 that will be standard by then. Considering how the established companies are dragging their feet to upgrade the network, let’s just say I have my doubts. And since TVs will be using internet bandwidth in ATSC 3.0, I have even more doubts. Secondly you assume that cord-cutters will pay for the Sports. I’m old enough to remember Pay-per-View. The only sports folks have been willing to watch on pay-per-view are rasslin’, boxing (kind of), and Nebraska football. I’m sure Netflix and Amazon remember that as well as I do. You can ask the 130 how well ESPN3 does, not well enough to save their jobs. I think you also well over estimate how much people will pay. I liked ESPN, but I don’t miss it. I sure as hell won’t pay $10/mo for the garbage ESPN has on most of the time now. I wouldn’t pay $12 or even $6 a year for BTN. $12/yr might be my upper limit for any single non-movie channel currently on cable. There are a lot more people like me out there who’ll not subsidize these rights fees anymore.
The good news for the Big Ten, and the SEC, is that there will be another round of consolidation and that the biggest followings will get the largest share of the smaller pie. This is what will probably shake Texas loose. Depending on the next decade, it may even shake loose Tobacco Road and maybe even ND.
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If they don’t block my VPN, I’d pay $2/month for BTN. That’d be $14/yr, for August-February.
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It will devolve back to the CFA (SEC, ACC) v. Big10Pac10 split of the mid-80s. The Big12s deemed worthy will scatter to both camps.
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FLP_NDRox,
“I see a significant drop in rights fees.”
It’s hard for me to picture. ESPN is still highly profitable. I think they will trim their less desirable properties first.
“ESPN was subsidized by non-sports fans as much or more than big sports fans. Skinny Bundles and a la carte are going to kill rights fees.”
But hardcore sports fans would be willing to pay a lot more than $7/month for ESPN. If/when things go a la carte, prices for the best channels will jump. People pay $10-15 for a movie ticket all the time and that’s maybe 2 hours of entertainment.
“I’ve been saying it’s a bubble for half a decade.”
Some people have been saying that for decades and they haven’t been shown to be right yet.
“If anyone ever tells you “can’t” lose money on a deal you know its a bubble, and many of you have told me over the years that live sports are DVR proof and cord-cutting proof.”
TV ratings have held up quite well, at least for the top games which is where all the money is.
“There’s a 130 people with pink-slips from the WWL to testify to that.”
No, they testify to ESPN wasting tons of money on a giant new studio and talking heads among other things. They also testify to Disney’s bottom line being dependent on ESPN making ridiculous levels of profit to cover the other divisions.
“First, it assumes that internet speed and reliability will significantly increase in the next decade, especially outside major metro areas, to levels good enough to maintain a consistent, minimally buffering, 4k/30fps/HDR to make streaming comparable to the ATSC 3.0 that will be standard by then.”
It has improved every decade and we still always complain that it isn’t good enough. That will always be true with communication infrastructure.
“Secondly you assume that cord-cutters will pay for the Sports.”
We assume that some will. To assume otherwise is foolish.
“The only sports folks have been willing to watch on pay-per-view are rasslin’, boxing (kind of), and Nebraska football.”
http://newsok.com/article/5442378
Not true. I believe many B12 schools have used PPV over the years.
Fox Sports Oklahoma has announced Oklahoma’s football season opener vs. Akron on Sept. 5 [2015] will be made available via pay-per-view.
The game is being televised on a pay-per-view basis because it was not selected for over-the-air broadcast or cable television coverage. It will be available on a dedicated pay-per-view channel on participating Oklahoma program providers, and nationwide via participating satellite and Telco distributors. Pricing will vary by distributor.
…
Viewers outside the state of Oklahoma can purchase a live stream of the pay-per-view broadcast on SoonerSports.tv. The online pay-per-view price is $54.99.
“You can ask the 130 how well ESPN3 does, not well enough to save their jobs.”
ESPN hasn’t tried to maximize revenue from ESPN3. They use it to drive ESPN subscriptions and develop their streaming capabilities instead.
“I wouldn’t pay $12 or even $6 a year for BTN. $12/yr might be my upper limit for any single non-movie channel currently on cable. There are a lot more people like me out there who’ll not subsidize these rights fees anymore.”
And millions of B10 fans readily would pay that much and more without even blinking. Just because you won’t pay for any entertainment ($12 for up to 8760 hours of entertainment is your cap) doesn’t mean others are so cheap.
“The good news for the Big Ten, and the SEC, is that there will be another round of consolidation and that the biggest followings will get the largest share of the smaller pie. This is what will probably shake Texas loose. Depending on the next decade, it may even shake loose Tobacco Road and maybe even ND.”
ND can’t go anywhere but the ACC for almost 20 years. Even then, I think it’ll be hard to ever convince their alumni to fully join a conference.
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Wow, you are optimistic. I hope you’re holding Disney stock.
> But hardcore sports fans would be willing to pay a lot more than $7/month for ESPN. If/when things go a la carte, prices for the best channels will jump. People pay $10-15 for a movie ticket all the time and that’s maybe 2 hours of entertainment.
Lol. You think you’re getting ESPN for less than netflix? No. No no no. Back in 2015, Michael Nathanson crunched the numbers, and his estimate for ESPN/month?
$36.30 a month.
$435.60 a year.
People are straight up NOT going to pay that. Maybe you might with all your Disney stock, but not the rest of us. And really, who needs ESPN? According to USAToday at the time of the estimate the only fans groups that “needed” ESPN are Tennis and College Sports fans.
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/07/espn-ala-carte-price-unbundle-unbundling-price-per-month-hbo
That well is going to go dry when a la carte and skinny bundles hit. ESPN may hang on with a Disney bundle, estimates of that may be able to get that group under $20/month, but ESPN sure aren’t going to be printing money anymore.
> > 4k/30fps/HDR to make streaming comparable to the ATSC 3.0
Sorry, ATSC 3.0 is looking like its going to be 4k/*120*fps/HDR so another 4 times the data. I hope you are right and everyone will have streaming that good. I don’t have any reason to think it’ll happen, though.
I really don’t know why you assume big cable won’t eat into the rights fees/profits by charging outrageous fees for priority or even just regular traffic to streaming sites they don’t own given the Trump FCC smokesignals.
> We assume that some will. To assume otherwise is foolish.
No, you are assuming *enough* will. I don’t know why you make that assumption. Considering the rate of cord cutting, and how sports is supposed to be the major thing stopping it, I really would love to year why you think you’ll find enough fans to generate 2013 or so levels of income.
> Not true. I believe many B12 schools have used PPV over the years.
Successfully to the point of being like a broadcast rights deal? The fact that I couldn’t find a non-Nebraska story on a quick google makes me doubtful.
> Fox Sports Oklahoma has announced Oklahoma’s football season opener vs. Akron on Sept. 5 [2015] will be made available via pay-per-view.
$55 for the Akron game?!? Yeah. Let’s see how much they make from that.
> millions of B10 fans readily would pay that much and more without even blinking. Just because you won’t pay for any entertainment ($12 for up to 8760 hours of entertainment is your cap) doesn’t mean others are so cheap.
Let’s see… ESPN is estimated to cost 5x what we are paying for it now if offered a la carte. Assuming BTN’s price increase is only that much, and that we are “in footprint”, That’s $5/mo for games so bad ESPN and Fox didn’t want them? “Millions” will pay that. Yeah, OK. My gut says the price will be more like $7-10. Good luck with that.
And even if they do, what makes you think enough will buy it to keep the same income rolling in, much less increased income like we’ve been seeing in the last decade?
Also, I’m not really paying for all those hours, I’m only paying for the games and shows I watch…which will never exceed 36.3hrs/wk. Over $1/hr and probably well over that is not worth it to me given the games on ESPN.
> ND can’t go anywhere but the ACC for almost 20 years. Even then, I think it’ll be hard to ever convince their alumni to fully join a conference.
No kidding. I’m a ND alum. I’m already upset the Hockey Team is going B1G to bail you out while Michigan, Michigan State, and Minnesota get their stuff together. I don’t think the rights bubble bursting will shake ND loose. I’m almost wondering/hping if it will encourage more teams to go independent by establishing another CFA type association that the broadcasters will encourage to have more flexible scheduling to maintain interesting match-ups throughout the season especially for good G5 teams or the leftovers of the BXII/ACC wreckage if their conference goes belly-up. I doubt it, but apparently we can still dream.
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FLP_NDRox,
“Lol. You think you’re getting ESPN for less than netflix?”
Right now? Yes, I do. Every expert says so. I wasn’t giving an a la carte price for ESPN.
“Back in 2015, Michael Nathanson crunched the numbers, and his estimate for ESPN/month?
$36.30 a month.”
I can’t argue his analysis because it isn’t available online without a subscription. His price is based entirely on his number for the reach of ESPN now and in the a la carte future. Without knowing how he estimated that 16.8% of households would pay for ESPN, there’s nothing to debate. He could be off by 10 percentage points either way or be entirely correct for all we know.
However, his price is also based on ESPN getting exactly the same revenue it does now. ESPN should be able to cut some costs if they only reach 1/6 of the people. Their programming would shift away from casual fans and focus more on what diehard fans want. That’s probably more games, replays and analysis with fewer talking heads. They could reduce the diversity of sports they have and focus on the moneymakers.
That said, plenty of people are used to paying $70-150 per month for cable. As long as the total doesn’t go up, many people will keep paying for ESPN. I could also see them moving to a PPV model as an additional revenue stream.
“People are straight up NOT going to pay that.”
Some will. It’s still cheap entertainment. If you watch an average of 1 hour a day , you’re paying $1.20 an hour. That’s cheaper than almost any entertainment option out there.
Let’s remember that HBONow costs $15 per month and has over 2M subscribers already. The number tripled in 2016 and their goal is 10M. Regular HBO has 49M subscribers at varying prices.
“And really, who needs ESPN? According to USAToday at the time of the estimate the only fans groups that “needed” ESPN are Tennis and College Sports fans.”
Anyone who insists on watching live games that ESPN has needs ESPN. Monday Night Football will push some NFL fans to get it. Many CFB and MBB need it. NBA fans would absolutely need it (you skipped them in your list). Maybe some other niche fans would need it. Others will just want it. Probably a lot of gambling addicts would need it.
And remember, a lot of niche sports networks might die in the a la carte world. That would bring more value back to ESPN as the source for all the sports coverage.
“That well is going to go dry when a la carte and skinny bundles hit. ESPN may hang on with a Disney bundle, estimates of that may be able to get that group under $20/month, but ESPN sure aren’t going to be printing money anymore.”
Skinny bundles and some a la carte options already exist and ESPN is still fine.
“I hope you are right and everyone will have streaming that good.”
Millions of people stream their entertainment now. We’ll find some way to endure in the future.
“I really don’t know why you assume big cable won’t eat into the rights fees/profits by charging outrageous fees for priority or even just regular traffic to streaming sites they don’t own given the Trump FCC smokesignals.”
1. It’s still illegal as of now and no president and his policies lasts forever.
2. Why assume ESPN would be hit any harder than any other entertainment source for this? If the pain is spread across all channels/sources then it’s not really a factor. It’ll be just another fee to be accounted for in the fine print.
“No, you are assuming *enough* will.”
Since I’m not throwing out a price, there is no such thing as “enough” people.
“I don’t know why you make that assumption. Considering the rate of cord cutting, and how sports is supposed to be the major thing stopping it, I really would love to year why you think you’ll find enough fans to generate 2013 or so levels of income.”
http://www.whatyoupayforsports.com/2017/03/how-espns-rising-carriage-fees-offset-its-subscriber-losses/
Because math is good. ESPN is increasing their carriage rate faster than they’re losing subscribers.
Here’s where Clay Travis’ narrative falls a bit flat: while ESPN has lost 14.5% of its subscribers in six years, its monthly carriage fee has increased 58.4% in that same span.
…
In their current deal with Tim Warner cable, ESPN’s fee rises 6.5% per year.
…
It is extremely difficult to suggest that ESPN is failing when its two biggest channels are expected to earn more than $8.8 billion in carriage fees alone in 2017 — an increase from an estimated $8.5 billion earned by those two channels in 2016.
“$55 for the Akron game?!? Yeah. Let’s see how much they make from that.”
I don’t know, but they’ve done a PPV game almost every season under Stoops so they aren’t losing money on it. They are all cupcake games that nobody watches on regular TV anyway, but if they can make a profit off those then imagine what a real game might make.
“Let’s see… ESPN is estimated to cost 5x what we are paying for it now if offered a la carte. Assuming BTN’s price increase is only that much, and that we are “in footprint”, That’s $5/mo for games so bad ESPN and Fox didn’t want them? “Millions” will pay that. Yeah, OK. My gut says the price will be more like $7-10. Good luck with that.”
Your analyst up above said ESPN would keep 16.8% reach at $36/month. Assume BTN can keep 16.8% of its current subscribers and that’s roughly 10 million people. So yes, millions. BTN only has to keep a little more than 3% to reach millions.
“Also, I’m not really paying for all those hours, I’m only paying for the games and shows I watch…which will never exceed 36.3hrs/wk.”
You are paying for all of them if you subscribe. You can only cherrypick under a PPV scenario.
I agree you’re unlikely to watch more than 36 hours a week, but you don’t need to. 36 hours per month still makes it $1/hour. Even at 14 hours a month (4 x 3:30 hour CFB games) it’s only about $2.50 an hour. That’s still cheap. It’s like a $9 PPV price per game.
“Over $1/hr and probably well over that is not worth it to me given the games on ESPN.”
That’s you.
“I’m already upset the Hockey Team is going B1G to bail you out while Michigan, Michigan State, and Minnesota get their stuff together.”
The B10 put 3 teams into the NCAA tournament this year, including 4-seed MN. It doesn’t need to be bailed out.
“I don’t think the rights bubble bursting will shake ND loose. I’m almost wondering/hping if it will encourage more teams to go independent by establishing another CFA type association that the broadcasters will encourage to have more flexible scheduling to maintain interesting match-ups throughout the season especially for good G5 teams or the leftovers of the BXII/ACC wreckage if their conference goes belly-up. I doubt it, but apparently we can still dream.”
I don’t see independence as viable for many. Scheduling is too difficult these days. What I could see are football-only conferences forming to maximize revenues for the top brands.
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Guess you don’t/wouldn’t mind missing CFP and NY6 games, or most of the other bowl games.
http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2012/11/espn-reaches-12-year-agreement-for-new-college-football-playoff/
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Ccrider55: Yeah, I have been. It’s easier to swallow beer prices watching those games elsewhere than my cable bill. Not that I bothered last year.
Brian:
Anecdotes prove nothing. You’re paying $7/mo now. That will go up in the future. In the a la carte world most expect is coming it’s going to go up a lot more. Maybe 1 in 6 households will contain a sports fan willing to pay $36/mo. I’d actually believe that, but I’d be surprised if it was much more. HBO go is competing with Netflix, Amazon, and ppv movies. It’s still cheaper than Blockbuster, so it’s not a comparison. You’re right I missed about the NBA. Im not a fan and mostly flipped into TNT. Sports rating have declined the last year or so. What I’ve learned is that once you drop it’s easier than I thought to go without.
The reason I think ESPN/live sports is going to be a problem streaming is twofold. Since ESPN is the big dog they have the most to lose and the biggest target for the isps. Also that frame rate isn’t designed for scripted programming, it’s designed for sports. Movies will stream at 24/fps as they have for nearly a century. Scripted TV can go at 30 as it has since analog. But sports in blur reducing hyper realistic 120fps is going to be a game changer. But streaming it requires 4 times more data than TV and 5 times more than movies. If you think ISPs are mad at Netflix, wait til they see UHD sports streams in 5yrs.
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FLP_NDRox,
“Anecdotes prove nothing.”
But yours do?
“You’re paying $7/mo now.”
I’m not, but people with ESPN are.
“That will go up in the future.”
Obviously.
“In the a la carte world most expect is coming it’s going to go up a lot more.”
But from a higher base than it’s at now. The longer a la carte takes to get here, the smaller that price jump.
“Maybe 1 in 6 households will contain a sports fan willing to pay $36/mo. I’d actually believe that, but I’d be surprised if it was much more.”
Your own expert says it doesn’t need to be more to match revenue. And even he would admit to a margin of error in his calculations.
“HBO go is competing with Netflix, Amazon, and ppv movies. It’s still cheaper than Blockbuster, so it’s not a comparison.”
Of course it’s a comparison as it’s the most expensive solo option out there.
“You’re right I missed about the NBA. Im not a fan and mostly flipped into TNT.”
That’s a major sport and a desirable demographic, so It’s kind of important for the discussion.
“Sports rating have declined the last year or so.”
It was a mixed bag. Some things were up, others were down. There’s no clear long term trend.
“The reason I think ESPN/live sports is going to be a problem streaming is twofold. Since ESPN is the big dog they have the most to lose and the biggest target for the isps.”
It doesn’t have to be ESPN leading the way. Other companies could pay just as much for the rights. Several Silicon valley companies could quadruple the price of B10 rights out of petty cash and barely notice.
“Also that frame rate isn’t designed for scripted programming, it’s designed for sports. Movies will stream at 24/fps as they have for nearly a century. Scripted TV can go at 30 as it has since analog. But sports in blur reducing hyper realistic 120fps is going to be a game changer. But streaming it requires 4 times more data than TV and 5 times more than movies. If you think ISPs are mad at Netflix, wait til they see UHD sports streams in 5yrs.”
Then maybe they won’t stream at 120 fps all the time. Plenty of people stream games now and seem happy with it. Maybe 120fps will cost a premium.
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http://www.techhive.com/article/3195776/streaming-services/this-is-how-the-bloated-tv-bundle-collapses.html
The channels are turning on one another. Discovery thinks they can throw together a sports-free bundle for $10/mo. ” [TV bundle]’s being ripped apart by an intertwined set of forces, including a steady decline in pay-TV bundle participants, the escalating cost of sports in TV bundles, and frustration from non-sports TV networks that feel hemmed in by the current system.”
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/the-big-12-isnt-breaking-up-but-perception-of-the-league-continues-to-sink/
Dennis Dodd says the B12’s reputation is sinking nationally. They need wins on and off the field to turn things around.
Actually, the astonishing thing is how far the Big 12 has sunk in terms of perception, talent and … winning. We can debate everything from revenue to recruiting, but what can’t be argued is image.
The Big 12’s is not good at the moment. Type the words “Big 12” on Twitter and mostly vitriol is shot back. What was once celebrated is now defended.
It is the first league to miss the three-year old College Football Playoff twice. It is the only Power Five league not to win a CFP game.
…
Perception has become reality in a parallel universe. The Big 12 could have countered the bad draft news with the fact it was coming off a 2016 season that produced two Heisman finalists and three teams ranked in the top 18 of the final AP Top 25 for a fourth consecutive season.
It didn’t, …
…
Conference realignment — as well as a talent exodus — has conspired against the Big 12 lately. Start with the fractionalization of the conference’s recruiting hub in the state of Texas.
The loss of Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Texas A&M in realignment meant 170 native Texas recruits have matriculated to those four schools in the Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC since 2011.
That’s the equivalent of almost seven Texas-only recruiting classes that could have ended up in the Big 12. Make no mistake, the Big 12’s strength revolves around state of Texas recruiting.
“The [recruiting] hole in the fence in the state of Texas is real,” said Barton Simmons, director of scouting for 247Sports.
…
Twenty-one years ago, the reason the league was assembled in the first place — the power of Texas and Oklahoma — is part of the reason it is struggling now.
According to the 247Sports Composite rankings, Oklahoma hasn’t signed a top-10 recruit from the state of Texas in four years. Herman signed Texas’ “worst” recruiting class since rankings were established in 1990. Herman called it a “transitional” year in recruiting after his class finished 26th.
…
Baylor and TCU have risen up in recent years, but the relative strength of the Big 12 is based on the fortunes of Texas and Oklahoma.
“A problem is that Texas needs to be good,” Longhorns coach Tom Herman said. “It’s not the problem.”
The draft, though, has reflected a dramatic slide in Big 12 fortunes. In 2011, the league “slipped” to having three picks in the top 10. That number shrunk to two in the first round each in 2014 and 2015.
After getting three first-rounders in 2016, the Big 12 sunk to one player taken in the top 47 — Texas Tech quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
…
No, it’s not college football’s job to be a farm league. But the truth is that’s how many teams and conferences measure their success. It’s no coincidence the SEC continues to be the dominant league. It led college football with the most draft picks (53) for the 10th straight year and set a record for most drafted in the first two rounds (21).
The 2017 draft isn’t necessarily the problem for the Big 12. It’s 16- and 17-year-old future recruits forming a perception of the Big 12 in a series of down draft years.
“There’s something to that,” Simmons said. “It’s less a disadvantage to the Big 12 and more an advantage to other conferences. … There’s a lot of negative noise around the Big 12. It’s a lot of little things that make up the big picture.”
…
Stoops has won 10 Big 12 titles and continues to land top recruiting classes while producing NFL players — at least four each year since 2004. Since 2005, OU has averaged almost 5 ½ draftees per year.
From 2005-15, Oklahoma had the fourth-most players drafted (63). Texas tied for 10th in that span with 46. But that included 2014, a year in which no Longhorn was taken for the first time in 77 years.
…
Texas is off to a great start recruiting the Class of 2018, according to 247Sports. Based on projections, the Big 12 could have at least five first-round picks next year.
“The talent issue is easily correctable if Texas gets back,” Simmons said.
…
With all the negativity, there is open conversation about how long the Big 12 will last and whether schools like Kansas and Kansas State will remain in a major conference. The only certainty is that whatever college football looks like in the next decade, Texas and Oklahoma will be just fine.
By 2020, Texas could be nearing $60 million in annual media rights revenue given Big 12, Longhorn Network, CFP and NCAA Tournament income. Oklahoma will be close to that figure thanks to an agreement with Fox Sports Southwest for its third-tier rights.
…
Either school probably won’t leave anytime soon given that revenue windfall and a Big 12 binding grant of rights. But the biggest reason is competition itself.
…
But the decision to leave for Texas and Oklahoma may be inevitable. The consolidation of power — outside the Big 12 — continues.
I think the concerns are overblown. UT will return to glory sooner or later and magically things will seem to be all better.
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Given Disney/ESPN’s problems with cable subscriber numbers and costs…, why is ESPN so gung-ho about building an ACC Network?
Like what possible reason could they have for being all in on that? It’s nowhere near as guaranteed of working as the SEC Network was a few years ago before “cord cutting” became a thing.
Just doesn’t seem prudent to rush into a new network when your main networks have each lost 10 million subscribers and you have billions in guaranteed rights over the next couple of years and are decreasing employment…
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z33k,
“Given Disney/ESPN’s problems with cable subscriber numbers and costs…, why is ESPN so gung-ho about building an ACC Network?”
It’s a good question and I’m not sure they are excited about it. Some experts have speculated it will only be a digital channel and never on cable/satellite. That could be helpful to them as a way to grow their streaming division.
“Like what possible reason could they have for being all in on that? It’s nowhere near as guaranteed of working as the SEC Network was a few years ago before “cord cutting” became a thing.”
I think they are contractually obligated to either form the network or pay the ACC more money. They could still choose to pay off the ACC rather than start the network by 2019.
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Yeah, I’m just struggling to believe that anybody is enthusiastic about launching a cable network right now.
We’re seeing many cable channels face dramatic restructuring in terms of content and reduction of costs due to cord cutting. Many cable channels will probably end up cut out of bundles in the near future as more slim/OTT offerings are developed.
After seeing AT&T dig in on DirecTV/Pac-12 Networks, it’s hard to see how Comcast/Charter/AT&T etc. will be enthusiastic about adding the ACC Network to that mix. At least the Big Ten Network and SEC Network had a chance to build up a following/subs/ad rates over a period of time, whereas an ACC Network would be entering the fray as all the major networks (especially ESPN and its group) are facing losses in the millions of subscribers range every year for the foreseeable future.
At some point, these things will stabilize I’d imagine, but this just doesn’t seem like a good time to launch any sort of “major” cable offering.
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http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-uc-nonresident-enrollment-20170509-story.html
The University of California system is about to set a limit for the number of out-of-state/international students enrolled at each campus. CA residents are mad that their children are kept out for financial reasons while faculty decry any barrier to getting the best students.
Under the proposal, UC would restrict the percentage of nonresident students to 18% at five of its nine undergraduate campuses. UC Berkeley, UCLA, UC San Diego and UC Irvine — whose proportion of nonresident students exceeds 18% — would be allowed to keep, but not increase, those higher percentages.
The new plan is a retreat from the proposal for a 20% systemwide cap on nonresident students that university officials presented to the UC Board of Regents in March. The cap, which would have been the first of it its kind, drew so much dissension from faculty and lawmakers that it was pulled from action and a vote was delayed until this month.
…
UC spokeswoman Dianne Klein called the revised policy a “consensus decision” reached after extensive discussions. Should the regents approve the policy at their May 18 meeting in San Francisco, lawmakers likely would release $18.5 million in state funding to help enroll an additional 2,500 California undergraduates for the 2017-18 school year.
…
Last fall, nonresident students numbered 34,673 — 16.5% of the system’s 210,170 undergraduates. Their proportion varies widely by campus, ranging from 24.4% at UC Berkeley to less than 1% at UC Merced, the system’s youngest and smallest university.
Campuses are eager to enroll students from other states and countries for both the diversity and extra tuition dollars they bring. They pay about $27,000 more in annual tuition than Californians — money that UC officials say has helped campuses recruit and retain faculty, add courses to reduce the overall class sizes and purchase library materials, instructional equipment and technology. The nonresident revenue also has boosted financial aid for Californians by an average $700 per student, Klein said.
As campuses scrambled to find extra money to offset deep state funding cuts after the 2008 recession, many actively recruited students from outside the state. Between 2007 and 2016, UC quadrupled its nonresident students. Even so, that percentage is lower than the average 27.9% for the 62 members of the elite Assn. of American Universities.
The number of California resident students increased by 10% during that time.
But the rapid growth in nonresident students, especially at flagships UC Berkeley, UCLA and UC San Diego, sparked a backlash from California families and lawmakers who believed they were squeezing out local children. A highly critical state audit last year concluded that UC had hurt California students by admitting too many nonresidents, although UC President Janet Napolitano labeled the findings “unfair and unwarranted.”
…
“I would have liked to have gone back to 10% but I’m not sure that’s realistic,” McCarthy said. “This is a compromise in the middle.”
Under an agreement between Napolitano and the state, UC enrolled an additional 7,400 Californians last fall — the largest single-year expansion since World War II — and officials hope to enroll an additional 5,000 over the next two years, in exchange for more state funding.
…
The revised proposal would allow UC Davis, UC Santa Barbara, UC Santa Cruz, UC Riverside and UC Merced to increase nonresident students up to 18% of undergraduates on their campuses. The other four campuses that exceeded that limit last fall — UC Berkeley at 24.4%, UC San Diego at 22.9%, UCLA at 22.8% and UC Irvine at 18.9% — would be allowed to keep but not increase the higher percentages of nonresidents they are expected to enroll in the 2017-18 academic year.
The revised proposal reiterates that every eligible California student will be offered a spot on at least one UC campus and that nonresident undergraduates are “in addition to rather than in place of” Californians.
I wonder if other states with high levels of non-resident students will follow suit?
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It will get interesting if they start limiting foreign graduate enrollments. Right now, nationwide an absolute majority of the students enrolled in STEM graduate programs are foreign nationals. In the non-elite schools, the majority reaches the 75% level. These foreign graduate students are fully supported on stipends (including tuition and fees) paid for by externally sourced research contracts (mostly US government). The great majority of the graduates return home with cutting edge American science and technology, and greatly enhance the capabilities of their home countries. The rise of China is in part due to this training.
The kicker here is that foreign graduate students are not really replacing American graduate students. Most Americans with a BS are not interested in graduate school (only about 10 to 15% of BSCE holders in my personal experience), and much of our university research would shut down without the foreigners.
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Rights fees will probably change significantly in the future depending on the premium value of the content.
What I mean by that is that even within the Power 5, we should start seeing broader ranges in the rights fees for national TV contracts.
Before, the conferences moved in relative lockstep, most moved upward at a similar pace with the next Power 5 leapfrogging the earlier announced rights values.
That era is probably over.
What does this mean for us? It probably means that down the road, we will see significant rationalization of the Power 5…; that especially applies to the Big 12, which has by far the most “deadweight” in its grouping.
Texas/Oklahoma bring nearly all the value to that contract (along with a bit for Kansas basketball), a conference setup like that just won’t work that well in the future. You can’t justify paying a premium for a TV contract that only provides a few marquee games.
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So of the Pac/B1G/ACC and SEC who could get relegated? On this blog, the consensus has tended to focus on Wake and BC, but are the 2nd public schools of states who excel at neither FB/MBB fair game?
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As quickly as the realignment has been going, no SEC, PAC-12, or B1G school is getting kicked out; too much support in the B1G and SEC, PAC is defended by geography.
Outside the next 25years the schools that have to worry are those that don’t have a big following. So basically everyone but Texas, Oklahoma, UNC, FSU, and maybe Clemson (smaller split state), Miami and Duke (private schools reliant on success who may squander it), Kansas (great basketball may Trump rancid football).
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urbanleftbehind,
“So of the Pac/B1G/ACC and SEC who could get relegated? On this blog, the consensus has tended to focus on Wake and BC, but are the 2nd public schools of states who excel at neither FB/MBB fair game”
I think relegation would be an act of desperation and very unlikely to ever happen. Remember than many second schools are controlled by the same board of regents as the top dog and state politicians will apply pressure to keep schools in the big leagues.
Presidents will be leery of setting a precedent that could come back to bite them in the future. They also view the other schools as colleagues so I think it will be hard for them to kick someone out. Besides, I think most conferences would require a supermajority to kick someone out so the bottom tier of schools can band together to protect each other.
Ignoring that reality, who brings the least value to the P5 conferences:
ACC – BC, WF, NCSU
B10 – PU, NW (they’re better than IL but too small to drive cable subscriptions)
B12 – Baylor, OkSU, KSU, TCU
P12 – WSU, OrSU
SEC – Vandy, MsSU, AR, SC
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I’ve been keeping up with it. I think the major problem in the long run for ESPN is not so much the cord cutting because I believe with youtube TV, Hulu Live TV, sling TV, and DirectTVNnow all have ESPN in their basic service. So they look a lot like cable packages used to look early on. As these streaming services get more and more viewers and there is competition for content, the price of ESPN will rise on them. Right now we are in a market correction and change in medium.
Some people seem to think people are cord cutting because of ESPN. Maybe some are. I have cord cut, but I get all my sports via the internet now. I have ZERO interest in the majority of most channels save for Walking Dead, Game of Thrones, Better Call Saul, Curb your Enthusiasm, The Americans, and a few others I can all get online for less than what cable offers for now. It’s even cheaper if I am willing to wait until the entire seasons comes on a streaming service and binge all my favorite shows during the summer months for my sports off season and cancel right after for less than a full year of streaming service. Sooner or later streaming services will catch on to people like me and start wanting full year contracts.
Just like Fox could bully carriers into taking BTN in NYC, because without it you would not get YES, FS1, FS2, FX, FXX, FoxNews, or Fox, ESPN has done so with forcing people to take A&E, Lifetime and all the Disney channels. So early on the streaming services seem to only have ESPN, but I’m sure they will morph into more of what cable looks like than what Netflix looks like. It’s weird because we pay a lot for Netflix and its entire library of crap, but a lot of people only watch a few shows. Often we have to pay for crap we don’t want, in order to get what we do want.
I think what happened to MTV happened to ESPN. MTV had done well with “Real World” and ESPN did well with “Pardon the Interruption” and both networks spiralled into putting on too many shows, and fewer videos and fewer sports. So I think the moves of ESPN by letting Skip Bayless, Colin Cowherd, older analysts/broadcasters, is removing a lot of the crap content and getting ready to provide more live sports. So ESPN can vastly improve its ratings I believe by getting back to its roots and putting more sports on TV and a few good sportscasters like SVP at the right time and bring in revenue with good shows. There was too much overlap before.
They definitely are over paying for the NFL and NBA, because those numbers were based on the subscribers they thought they’d have from cable subscribers. The thing is I think people are still watching sports and live sports at that. The correction I think needs to occur in a few places.
#1 ESPN will have to start charging more to the online streaming services of youtube TV, hulu Live TV, sling TV, and Direct TV now. They aren’t getting a huge amount because the subscriber bases are such in flux, I can’t imagine negotiating a fair deal. So this is what I mean when I say cord-cutters are ahead of the wave. I think people are getting ESPN and live streaming TV cheaper because the networks have yet to get a solid number from them to negotiate a good deal for them. As these streaming services war consolidate, I think we’ll have a better picture of exactly who’s streaming, who has satellite, and who has cable and they all will be about the same relatively priced.
#2 If the first happens in a timely manner, then we’ll see if there really are fewer people willing to watch live sports. I would think there would be the same if not more based on a growing population. If not then the next round of negotiations with the NFL, NBA, NCAA, NHL and MLB will be interesting. The sports will sell to the highest bidder. We’ve already seen where twitter is willing to pay for Thursday night football and we know facebook is entering the arena.
In the end getting back to the point, ESPN’s days of being the undisputed leader in sports are over. I think they’ll be at the top or near the top because they own the content (and have the reputation of having the content) and can offer it to streaming services. Who knows who could emerge as the leader. However, what seems clear to me is that many other mediums are bidding to acquire live sports content. Which is unbelievably valuable. So for the power 5, the B1G & SEC, I don’t see the B1G product being less valuable, I believe that the content will be delivered from different mediums, who will pay.
P.S. ESPN is under contract to deliver the ACC network on cable and with the advent of video libraries, there is no reason to have ESPN Classic on the broadcast when you could put that on your website and charge for a streaming digital library of older games. So I see that as the most likely channel already in the carriage to be transitioned for the ACC. Too little too late for the ACC though.
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z33k,
“Rights fees will probably change significantly in the future depending on the premium value of the content.
What I mean by that is that even within the Power 5, we should start seeing broader ranges in the rights fees for national TV contracts.
Before, the conferences moved in relative lockstep, most moved upward at a similar pace with the next Power 5 leapfrogging the earlier announced rights values.
That era is probably over.
What does this mean for us? It probably means that down the road, we will see significant rationalization of the Power 5…; that especially applies to the Big 12, which has by far the most “deadweight” in its grouping.”
I think we’re already seeing this as the B10 and SEC start to create a financial gap to everyone else. Parts of the B12 can keep up (UT, OU, …) and others can’t. The ACC and P12 are lagging.
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Yeah, I think the 2020s contracts will probably really show just how separated the groupings are now.
The key question in all of this I guess is, what kinds of changes will happen (especially with respect to Big 12 and ACC).
I can see ACC holding together if ESPN commits to that, especially with ND partially in the mix there, but Big 12 is harder.
I guess a lot of it comes down to what happens to Texas and the LHN in the long run.
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z33k,
“Yeah, I think the 2020s contracts will probably really show just how separated the groupings are now.
The key question in all of this I guess is, what kinds of changes will happen (especially with respect to Big 12 and ACC).
I can see ACC holding together if ESPN commits to that, especially with ND partially in the mix there, but Big 12 is harder.
I guess a lot of it comes down to what happens to Texas and the LHN in the long run.”
There are 2 obvious time frames for large-scale changes.
New TV deals start times:
B10 ESPN/Fox – 2023
P12 ESPN/Fox – 2024
SEC CBS – 2024
B12 ESPN/Fox – 2025
…
Texas LHN – 2031
B10 BTN – 2032
SEC ESPN/SECN – 2034
ACC ESPN/ACCN – 2036
If the B10 and SEC take another step forward and the B12 and P12 don’t (and the ACC can’t), the financial gaps could get quite large.
The SEC’s CBS deal is pretty small ($55M per year) since it’s only for 1 game per week, and after expansion the value stayed the same since the SEC wanted to eliminate the exclusive window instead. Still, those games average around a 4.0 every year so the value should increase. If it doubles to $110M per year, that would be about $3.9M more per school. Add in the SECN’s continual growth and that’s a decent jump.
It’s harder to predict what will happen with the B10’s rights since it’s a more comprehensive package and split over multiple networks. I wouldn’t expect the large jump the current deal represents compared to before ($10M per year), but even a continuation from the current deal would be tough for the others to match. By the end of this deal, the B10 should be near $55-60M per school per year. If the next deal just grows from there, only the SEC is likely to keep up.
The B10 has first shot at a new deal, so that will be the first chance to see if there are new players in the rights game or how the change in cable usage impacts rights fees. Will Silicon Valley try to get into the college sports business (Apple, Google, Twitter, etc)? Will ESPN and Fox still want to pay a lot for B10 games? Whatever the outcome, they’ll set the bar for everyone to match. If they get a good deal, discontent may start to brew in the ACC, B12 and/or the P12. The SEC will be fine, but the P12 could feel pressure to find new revenue. Meanwhile, the B12’s GOR would be about to end and they’d have an idea of what companies are willing to offer them. With the LHN’s deal nearing its end as well, UT will be compelled to think about its future.
UT will have to decide how to balance the future of the B12 with the LHN. Do they look for a short B12 TV deal to get them to 2031 when the LHN deal ends? Do they look to leave the B12 and accept modifications to the LHN? Do they look to expand the B12 to improve the TV deal? Do they consider a B12N starting in 2031 if people are still interested by then?
The B12 will potentially face turmoil in 2023-2025 but then should be okay until at least 2031. The P12 may face grumbling in 2022-2024 but their only chance at significant improvement is the P16 with UT and friends. Can they convince UT that is the right choice for them?
The ACC may also face grumbling, but the GOR means everyone’s probably stuck there until 2034 or later.
I’m curious if there will be any rumors of forming a football-only Airplane Conference with the best of those 3 conferences. They can stay as is for the other sports.
UW, OR, USC, UT, OU, Miami, FSU, Clemson
Play only 6 conference games (out of 7 possible) so there’s plenty of room to keep regional rivalries and add cupcakes, and take the ND deal from the ACC. There’s no CCG, but they wouldn’t need it for SOS purposes. Or they could grow it to 12 teams to get the CCG money. They could even use the last 4 spots for relegation purposes. The core 8 are permanent members but the other 4 could be used to keep the best from the 3 root conferences always in the Airplane Conference.
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I think a certain milestone has been reached within the Recent Comments section.
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And then I went and blew it.
Sorry.
I greatly prefer it when other people are busy on here, though.
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Your thorough content is always appreciated, don’t take it wrong.
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No offense taken.
But I really do prefer it when this doesn’t seem like an echo chamber for me. First I feel bad since it’s Frank’s blog and second I don’t need the internet to discuss topics with myself. There just haven’t been a lot of relevant topics lately that we haven’t already discussed to death.
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I appreciate it as well. I’d like to comment more, but real life keeps getting in the way.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/2017-ncaa-academic-progress-rate-football-apr-rankings-by-conference
2017 football APR scores by conference.
Why does this matter? The schools have to reach a certain threshold – 930 for four years, 940 for two years – to avoid penalties, and the higher the rating, the better the chance to go bowling if a football team doesn’t get to six wins.
It’s the tie-breaker. If there aren’t enough bowl eligible teams, and slots need filling, the criteria is the APR. Mississippi State and North Texas benefitted from this last year.
Big Ten
1. Northwestern 995 – tied for #1 nationally with AF
2. Michigan 993
3. Minnesota 992
4. Wisconsin 990
T5. Illinois 984
T5. Maryland 984
7. Indiana 982
8. Nebraska 977
9. Ohio State 975
10. Michigan State 974
11. Rutgers 973
T12. Purdue 971
T12. Iowa 971
14. Penn State 969
Other schools at 990+:
Duke, Vandy – 992
Navy – 991
The B10 had more schools at 990+ than the rest of the nation combined.
P5 schools below 969:
ACC
T8. Syracuse 968
T8. Virginia 968
10. Virginia Tech 967
11. Miami 965
12. North Carolina 959
13. NC State 957
14. Florida State 939
B12
5. Oklahoma 965
6. TCU 955
7. Oklahoma State 953
8. Texas Tech 947
9. Kansas 943
10. West Virginia 940
P12
T8. Colorado 968
T8. USC 968
10. Washington State 964
11. Oregon State 956
12. Arizona 955
SEC
10. Arkansas 966
11. Texas A&M 962
12. Georgia 961
13. LSU 959
14. Kentucky 958
The worst in the nation was Idaho at 927.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/preview-2017-is-wisconsin-the-best-program-with-no-national-title
Is Wisconsin the best program that hasn’t done anything big recently?
OR at least has made the NCG twice.
Welcome to the best college football program that – at least in recent history – hasn’t been able to do something really, really, really big.
Stanford is close in the discussion, and Boise State has enjoyed crazy success at a smaller level, but for more than two decades, no one has been a run like Wisconsin has, but with nothing massive to show for it at the highest of high levels.
Ever since Barry Alvarez took one of the nation’s worst college football teams and turned it into a 1993 Big Ten champ and Rose Bowl winner, it’s been a remarkable era of consistent success, now going into the 25th season since turning the corner.
In that time, UW has been won six Big Ten titles, with six Rose Bowls in the 22 bowl appearances for a program that went bowling just six times before Alvarez.
…
Through Alvarez, through Bret Bielema, through Gary Andersen, and now through Paul Chryst, few programs that have been as consistently amazing or as successful over the last 25 years, but a whole slew of them have at least been close to winning it all.
But there haven’t been any national titles for the Badgers, or BCS Championship appearances, or any spots so far in the College Football Playoff.
What will it take to get over that hump?
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The school would need to relax the admissions requirements. They would also need to move the campus 1500 miles south with greater access to more talent. Joking of course. I think they were really close to playing for a NC when they had Russell Wilson. If JJ Watt doesn’t leave early I think they make a NC that year.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/05/11/notre-dame-acc-announce-games-through-2037/101551448/
ND’s ACC schedule through 2036 has been released.
The schedule from 2026 to 2037 was announced Thursday and continues a partnership that started in 2014. The games from this fall until 2025 have already been announced.
The Fighting Irish play Labor Day night games at Clemson in 2031 and at Virginia Tech in 2036. Notre Dame will host 30 of the games from 2026 through 2037, while 30 are on the road.
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2017/05/acc-notre-dame-football-opponents-2037/
This link has the full set of ND/ACC games.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/paul-finebaum-says-big-12-is-the-titanic-and-the-iceberg-is-in-sight.html
SEC provocateur Paul Finebaum doubled down on his B12 criticism this week.
“I see the Big 12 as a complete trainwreck. The Big 12 is the Titanic, and you can see the iceberg in sight,” Finebaum said, as transcribed by The Dallas Morning News. “I love the fact that at the Big 12 meetings the other day, the athletic directors all scoffed at reports with the old Mark Twain line, “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” I don’t think we’re exaggerating. You can lay out any set of facts you want and in my mind, they don’t have an answer other than being in a complete state of oblivion.
…
Oen [sic] of the biggest concerns for the Big 12 has been the leadership, and Finebaum did not mince words when discussing Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby while quickly transitioning to the idea of Oklahoma wanting out of the Big 12 as quickly as possible;
“To me, the commissioner is one of the weakest of the Power 5 college commissioners. I know they can argue they don’t have a television network by saying, ‘Look at our revenues from television.’ And that’s correct. They have some very good television deals. And we all know about the University of Texas’ deal. But I don’t see this league going anywhere. I said the other day that I thought Oklahoma was trying desperately to get out or look for a path out of the Big 12 as soon as it can, which is a number of years away, and I believe that. And I have reason to believe that. I know people think that those of us behind microphones just throw things up against the wall and see if they land or stick to something or somebody. In this case, I’m not throwing that up against the wall. I believe very strongly, based on information that I’ve been told [though he is not citing], that Oklahoma flat-out wants out of the Big 12 as soon as it can get that door open without mortgaging its entire bank account on its future.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19361465/oklahoma-president-david-boren-says-school-plans-leave-big-12
OU president Boren denies that OU has plans to leave the B12 or is desperate to leave.
Oklahoma president David Boren says the university doesn’t “have any plans to make a move” out of the Big 12 conference.
…
“We’re not desperate to go anywhere else,” Boren told the Tulsa World after the school’s regents meeting Thursday. “We’re in pretty stable position with the Big 12.”
…
Boren said Thursday that the league remains competitive financially. Last summer, the conference distributed $30.4 million in revenue to each of its 10 members, which ranked third among Power 5 conferences.
“Financially, it’s not a great hardship, frankly,” Boren told the World. “What we’re getting per school is not really out of line with others.”
Still, Boren — who led the charge that ultimately fizzled last summer for the Big 12 to consider expansion — didn’t close the door on the possibility of future realignment involving Oklahoma.
The Big 12’s grant of rights binding the conference together expires in 2024-25. After that point, the Sooners would be free to explore other conferences without financial penalty.
“It’s very important to always have the possibility of making a move, if we want to,” Boren said. “The question is, are you in a conference that’s going to have a chance to play for national championships and going to be in playoffs?”
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Click to access 2017-big-ten-helmet-schedule.pdf
In case you want it, here’s the complete 2017 B10 schedule with helmet icons for all teams.
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Jon Wilner says that spring game attendance shows why the P12 got about the best TV deal they could and that maybe the conference pushed too far trying to add regional networks with no partner for leverage.
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I’m beginning to think Wilner has a vested interest in the P12N selling equity. Just kidding…kinda.
Is tying yourself to another entity, at a supposed time time of unbundling and espn carriage reduction a good idea? I understand the rational (and advantage) ten years ago, but that may soon not be the case. P12N has unencumbered flexibility others lack, for around twenty more years.
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ccrider55,
“I’m beginning to think Wilner has a vested interest in the P12N selling equity. Just kidding…kinda.”
I really don’t think he was being negative at all in that piece. He was telling P12 fans that their level of interest in CFB is what’s really holding the P12 back. Scott got the maximum deal possible for the P12 from ESPN/Fox considering that fan interest. He’s also saying that due to the level of fan interest, maybe the P12 should’ve aimed for just one P12N rather than a national feed plus regional feeds. While states in the south and midwest might support those for the SEC and B10, there just isn’t enough interest to get leverage over the carriers. I don’t think there any crititque of the P12N ownership model was intended. He just wants the fans to accept the facts that they don’t have as many diehards out west and that’s the root of their financial issues.
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From the startup announcement it was stated that maximizing $s was not the primary motivation or goal. In spite of that it has made money from day one. Anybody who thought it would make BTN type of money as P12 was delusional. The P16N might be in the neighborhood.
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Some fans don’t care about facts like that. They want to make the most money of anybody and they like to blame everyone but themselves if it doesn’t happen. I think that’s who Wilner was talking to in that piece, explaining that it was the lack of numbers of diehard fans that were causing the problem and not Scott or the presidents.
You can see the same thinking in ACC land where some of their fans are assuming the ACCN will be just as profitable as the SECN.
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The Dude has had some “interesting” things to say on twitter the past few days.
In no particular order:
* ACC is interested in WV but the GoR has WV trapped
* B12 has consultants telling them that a merger with the P12 would cure the problems for both conferences
* B12 considering bundling T3 games and selling them to digital platforms (sort of like the current ACCN but with multiple providers bidding, I guess)
* Neither OU nor UT is in contact with other conferences about moving
* OU has no place to go. The B10 doesn’t want them, the SEC won’t also take OkSU, the ACC isn’t an option and the P12 earns even less.
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Oops. I didn’t mean to embed anything. I just posted a link to his twitter page.
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Dude’s twitter seems much less disfunctional than before. Probably because I tend to follow national news more than is good for my mental health.
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Greg Flugaur (@flugempire) just went on a multi-tweet rant about the Dude after the Dude called him out. Flug pointed out how many times he’s been right and the Dude has been dead wrong (I’m sure there are some examples the other way, too, I’m not picking sides).
Flugaur’s sources says OU and KU in 2024 will be the B10’s main targets (presumably because UT isn’t interested).
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He’s convinced AAU not a requirement. Even if so, it would be advantageous. Assuming OU, KU, and my assumption is UT minus LHN are possibilities, why not wait until ’32 when LHN expires, or work a deal to end it earlier and invite the two AAU schools? The one earlier threat could be the PAC renewing the P16 offer, and deal with LHN by allowing espn P16N equity equal to the value of the LHN for the duration of that contract. KU still available (and could be paired with the white whale eventually). It’s not like the B1G hasn’t had an odd number before.
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He claims to have a Big Ten source where he gets this from. Frank also thinks the B10 would take OU and KU (see his twitter), so it’s not a crazy position. It’s possible UT has hinted to the B10 that they really aren’t interested or that the LHN is seen as an insurmountable obstacle. It’s also entirely possible he’s wrong. As I said, I’m not taking a side.
I don’t think you can ask the B10 to wait from 2025 until 2031 to make a decision, though. There could be a huge opportunity cost to waiting that long (OU and/or KU going elsewhere) unless UT makes a promise to come then.
There was some talk on the Dude’s feed of Disney maybe selling off ESPN so people are waiting to see how things turn out with ESPN and cable in general before dealing with UT. Maybe ESPN would sell LHN to Fox (or someone else) as a way to cut costs at some point. That could change things.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/05/12/jim-delany-big-ten-conference-20-million-bonus/101591564/
Delany is in line to receive $20M in future bonus payments.
The new return — which the conference provided Friday in response to a request from USA TODAY Sports — states that in July 2015, Delany “became fully eligible for future bonus payments pursuant to his employment contract.”
As a result, the document said, the conference had to record the full amount of those future payments as an expense and a liability on the return covering its 2016 fiscal year, which ran from July 1 through June 30.
A comparison of the Big Ten’s new expense and liability amounts to those on prior years’ returns reveals the $20 million estimate.
…
In a statement provided by Traviolia, University of Minnesota president Eric Kaler — who currently chairs the Big Ten Council of Presidents and Chancellors — said: “Commissioner Delany has provided invaluable leadership for Big Ten member institutions while delivering first-in-class performance during a time of great transformation in college athletics. He has not only successfully balanced the missions of academic achievement, student-athlete development and athletic success, he has successfully developed the resources necessary to strategically position the conference for success well into the future. His compensation is market-competitive, based on an independent third-party analysis, and reflects the value and impact of his leadership.”
He’s probably earned it, but he’s also been paid fairly well over the years.
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Not sure why they felt they need to pay him that large sum of money. He’s going to retire soon. Usually you pay someone that much to attract or retain. Not sort of a retirement gift. Certainly he’s created incredible value for the league with BTN but not sure a 20million reward was warranted.
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It sounds like they’ve been part of his contract for a while, he just had to stay long enough and/or meet certain performance metrics to trigger them. I agree they were probably unnecessary, but maybe he insisted on them being included a while ago and they just started to vest now.
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http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-usc-coliseum-renovation-20170504-story.html
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Are those lower decks of seats collapsible/movable? LA is at present 1 of 2 remaining contenders for the 2024 Olympics. Of course track and field events may be split or moved to Pasadena, Inglewood or Carson.
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The US Olympic Committee is sticking it to the athletes, as usual. In order to “show off” LA, this year the Paralympic national championship track and field competition is in LA. Rooms are very expensive and some athletes could not even find rooms near the competition. Team USA cannot pay for athletes expenses for the National Championships, since it would show favoritism to current team members. Very few Para-athletes have sponsors, so the pay their own way.
The Para-athletes not thrilled that TeamUSA is promoting LA at their expense.
Last year, leading up to the Rio Paralympics, the track and field championships were in Charlotte. Rooms were quite reasonable. (Track and field is called Athletics)
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Los Angeles has made it clear that it wants the 2024 Olympics, and will not look kindly upon getting the 2028 Games as a “consolation prize.” (It’s been said that the loser for ’24, LA or Paris, will get the event in ’28.) But it could happen if IOC voters fear Trump and/or Pence could occupy the White House in 2024.
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They are about the only major cities that want the Olympics any more, and that’s probably because they already have most of the facilities and infrastructure needed to host. Citizens elsewhere (Boston, Hamburg, Budapest, …) keep telling their governments to stop wasting money on the Olympics.
I wonder if they’ll ever move away from the 1 host city plan at some point to a more regional or national approach. Many Olympics have a few venues well away from everything else already.
https://www.olympic.org/olympic-agenda-2020
The IOC has responded by trying to make it easier and cheaper to bid.
Olympic Agenda 2020 is the strategic roadmap for the future of the Olympic Movement. The 40 recommendations are like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle that, when you put together, form a picture that shows the IOC safeguarding the uniqueness of the Olympic Games and strengthening sport in society.
Some of the key areas addressed by Olympic Agenda 2020 are:
– Changes to the candidature procedure, with a new philosophy to invite potential candidate cities to present a project that fits their sporting, economic, social and environmental long-term planning needs.
– Reducing costs for bidding, by decreasing the number of presentations that are allowed and providing a significant financial contribution from the IOC.
– Move from a sport-based to an event-based programme.
– Strengthen the 6th Fundamental Principle of Olympism by including non-discrimination of sexual orientation in the Olympic Charter.
– Launch of an Olympic Channel to provide a platform for sports and athletes beyond the Olympic Games period, 365 days a year.
– Adapting and further strengthening the principles of good governance and ethics to changing demands.
– Athletes remain at the centre of all 40 of the proposals, with the protection of the clean athletes being at the heart of the IOC’s philosophy.
An event-based program rather than sport-based?
Click to access Olympic-Agenda-2020-20-20-Recommendations.pdf
This document details all 40 recommendations.
Move from a sport-based to an event-based programme:
1. Regular reviews of the programme to be based on events rather than sports, with the involvement of the International Federations, and with the following restrictions to be respected:
* For the Games of the Olympiad: approximately 10,500 athletes, 5,000 accredited coaches
and athletes’ support personnel, and 310 events,
* For the Winter Games, approximately 2,900 athletes, 2,000 accredited coaches and athletes’ support personnel, and 100 events.
2. The IOC Session to decide on the inclusion of any sport (IF) in the programme.
3. The IOC to allow the OCOGs to make a proposal for the inclusion of one or more additional
events on the Olympic programme for that edition of the Olympic Games.
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“– Athletes remain at the centre of all 40 of the proposals, with the protection of the clean athletes being at the heart of the IOC’s philosophy.”
A lot of American athletes wait for this to happen. The Olympic Committee makes vast amounts of money. Some athletes get wealthy with sponsorships. Most athletes need to work full time to support their own competition. Sad state of affairs.
I live through this since my son competed in the Paralympics in Rio last year. He finished 4th, so no medal.
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I would be stunned if LA got 2024. If it doesn’t go to Europe in 2024, it would be the longest period without a European summer games. There are a lot of votes in Europe.
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The LA city and State of California should lie down and let Paris get it – why have such a large albatross so close to the election, especially if Trump is a one-termer and the Dem is actually the incumbent in summer 2024, or if it is a California pol like Gavin Newsome or Kamala Harris running to prevent a 3rd consecutive R presidency.
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Frank always says to think like a president and not a fan when considering expansion which is sage advice. Here we usually consider expansion from the B10’s point of view (for obvious reasons), but occasionally we look from the other side.
We know there are several major factors in expansion decisions (academics, culture, geography, athletics and money). I want to focus on just one aspect of money here. Say you’re UT. One of the main issues in projecting money is deciding what Tier 3 model is best for you.
1. LHN model
No conference involved, own 0%, fixed payout, can get profit shares if there are any
This has worked well so far for them financially (will average almost $15M per year for 20 years – started at $11M and increases 3% annually).
2. SECN model
Conference involved, own 0%, fixed payout, can get profit shares if there are any
This has worked well for the SEC so far.
3. BTN model
Conference involved, own 50%, fixed payout, can get profit shares if there are any
This has worked well for the B10 so far.
4. P12N model
Conference involved, own 100%, no fixed payout, get profit if there is any
This hasn’t worked well for the P12N in terms of revenue so far but they do own the network.
Annual payouts:
LHN – $15M
SECN – $8M+
BTN – $7M+
P12N – $1-1.5M
But that doesn’t factor in ownership.
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/05/the_sec_network_is_still_the_k.html
SNL Kagan gave the following network valuations recently:
SECN – $4.7B
BTN – $1.14B
P12N – $305M
I’m not sure how good these numbers are, though. BTN was worth $1.59B just a year ago. How did it lose 28% of its value so quickly?
Subscribers and price:
SECN – 61M * $0.74 = $545M = $38.9M per school per year
BTN – 60M * $0.43 = $310M = $22.1M
P12N – 12M * $0.27 = $38.9M = $3.24M
Anyway, let’s assume they’re right.
Each B10 school owns over $40M worth of BTN right now.
Each P12 school owns over $30M worth of P12N.
Each SEC school owns $0 worth of SECN.
UT owns $0 worth of LHN.
Clearly UT would increase the value of any conference network it joined. Would the value of ownership balance the loss of payout for them? Do they see any one model as clearly superior to the others? Should they see one as preferable?
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The biggest questionmark with Texas is where is their future. They clearly want it to be possible for them to stay in a local neighborhood, but that may end up with them alone in a conference where they bring all the national value to the conference (if OU/KU leave).
I think at some point though the main issue Texas may have to consider is: do they want to part with OU?
It’s not really about money with Texas, they’ll be fine on money and can work something out; somebody will spot them money…, it’s a question of whether they think their “Texas conference” model is sustainable in the long run.
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People smarter than me figure network values, but I have a hard time believing SECN in just a couple years is worth 4+ times the BTN.
“I’m not sure how good these numbers are, though. BTN was worth $1.59B just a year ago. How did it lose 28% of its value so quickly?”
And I thought P12N was about .5B two years ago. Perhaps the model used is highly sensitive to short term commercial subscriber trends, without factoring alternative digital platforms.
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They’re basically just valuing the networks off the cash flows.
The biggest problem with the analysis is that they’re providing far higher P/E ratios (Price/Earnings) to those SEC Network numbers, which only makes sense if you think that its cash flows will grow far faster than the Big Ten Network’s…
That’s the only real scenario where it’s worth 4x as much.
But that’s highly unrealistic because both networks have probably already peaked in terms of numbers of subscribers (and are declining), and it’s fairly unlikely that we’ll ever reach the point where the SEC Network is generating 4x the earnings of the BTN.
@Brian, I think they’re factoring in cord cutting affecting the BTN. How much do they estimate BTN’s subscribers at, it can’t be 60M under SNL Kagan estimates?
Based on the estimates and where things are going, I don’t think SEC Network is worth more than 2-2.5x more than BTN, but their estimates give greater weight to future SEC Network cash flows (in order words they think SECN will keep its revenues higher for longer).
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z33k,
“They’re basically just valuing the networks off the cash flows.
The biggest problem with the analysis is that they’re providing far higher P/E ratios (Price/Earnings) to those SEC Network numbers, which only makes sense if you think that its cash flows will grow far faster than the Big Ten Network’s…
That’s the only real scenario where it’s worth 4x as much.
But that’s highly unrealistic because both networks have probably already peaked in terms of numbers of subscribers (and are declining), and it’s fairly unlikely that we’ll ever reach the point where the SEC Network is generating 4x the earnings of the BTN.
@Brian, I think they’re factoring in cord cutting affecting the BTN. How much do they estimate BTN’s subscribers at, it can’t be 60M under SNL Kagan estimates?”
I couldn’t find any article that gave that number. The math requires it to be 60M for the total revenue and average cost to work out, but maybe everyone’s working from the same Nielsen estimates.
They had the SECN down over 8M subscribers, though. BTN would have to be down a lot more than that to get a worse outlook and you’d think someone would mention BTN losing 15M+ subscribers.
“Based on the estimates and where things are going, I don’t think SEC Network is worth more than 2-2.5x more than BTN, but their estimates give greater weight to future SEC Network cash flows (in order words they think SECN will keep its revenues higher for longer).”
I believe there is a reasonable assumption that demand for SECN is higher in its footprint than demand for BTN is in the B10’s footprint. That means they can charge more and have fewer people drop it. That said, I won’t really buy their estimates until both networks are 5 years old and we have a better picture of what the marketplace is doing.
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Yeah, their estimates only really make sense in a scenario where the SECN is taking in around $800m per year around 2022 while the BTN is around $200m per year around 2022 (that’s in terms of profit ignoring ownership % or distributions).
That’s really the only scenario where there’s an inflection point at which SECN is earning more than 4x the BTN in the years beyond that (since they certainly are not now) and you can justify valuing it 4x higher at present when you discount those values.
But there’s a lot of reasons why that’s highly unrealistic.
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http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/lacrosse-men/d1/2017
A bad day for the B10 in MLAX.
#6 seed JHU got crushed at home by unseeded Duke ending JHU’s 17-game home winning streak in tournament games.
#7 seed PSU lost at home to unseeded Towson.
Hopefully tomorrow goes better for #1 seed UMD and #3 seed OSU.
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UMD and OSU did both advance to the elite 8. JHU and PSU were the only seeded teams to lose. OSU now gets a red hot Duke team that crushed JHU 19-6 while UMD gets a vastly underseeded #8 Albany.
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http://newsok.com/david-boren-its-in-our-interest-that-the-big-12-succeed/article/5548946
More quotes from David Boren.
The league’s grant of rights, which essentially locks teams into the conference at least until near the end of the deal, runs until the 2024-25 year. The Big Ten’s rights deal expires after the 2022-23 season.
Boren said a few years before that Big Ten deal expires could begin the next wave of realignment in college athletics.
“I’ve been thinking three or four or five years down the road if there’s any need to make a change, but I haven’t wanted us to extend our grant of rights by 20 years or something like that so that OU would have no choices,” Boren said.
Boren didn’t quell the notion that if a conference change is made that he’d rather it be to a conference that has a high academic standing.
“Well, let’s put it this way — the Big Ten and Pac 12 have both emphasized academics and they do have, I think, deserved stature in the academic community,” Boren said. “That’s not the only factor that should be considered obviously. I’m a football fan too—and athletic fan—and I want us in a conference that’s very competitive regularly.”
But Boren also said he remained regretful that the Big 12 didn’t make a move to add more teams during the last major round of realignment—specifically mentioning Louisville and Rutgers as possibilities before the former landed in the ACC and the latter wound up in the Big Ten or that the Big 12 didn’t add a conference when networks were pursuing and paying big money for such projects.
…
So what’s OU’s future?
“They’re all kind of possible except the ACC really,” Boren said.
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Great quotes, and they really show that OU movement is very much on the table around 2025 (despite the official word from the Texas 10 that they’re all in for the long haul).
Of course, you can never count out UT’s ability to hold the Big 12 together, but OU’s going to want assurances that the pay/visibility are there for the Big 12 before signing onto a new grant of rights (as they should).
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Boren is great for this board, but he turned 76 this year. Do we really think he’ll be around in 2025? I’d be interested to see who replaces him and if their thinking is more in line with Boren’s.
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Mike,
“Boren is great for this board, but he turned 76 this year. Do we really think he’ll be around in 2025?”
Not a chance. But if he’s willing to say it, then other people are thinking it. If anything, I’d expect a new generation to be more mercenary and less beholden to Texas.
Boren was in the state (OK) and US government from 1967-1994 when he became the president of OU. The new president is likely to be an outsider with less of a grasp of the rivalries and traditions and more focused on the bottom line.
“I’d be interested to see who replaces him and if their thinking is more in line with Boren’s.”
That will be key. So will the replacement for Delany in the B10.
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Some analysis of Boren
http://newsok.com/big-12-who-ou-president-david-boren-really-put-on-notice-with-his-big-12-talk/article/5549292?custom_click=rss
David Boren has put the Big 12 on notice.
Get better, the Oklahoma president essentially said last week, or the Sooners will see you later.
Just when you thought the words “conference realignment” were fading from favor, they are the talk of the town again. That’s because Boren was asked about the future of the Big 12 and OU’s future in it after a Board of Regents meeting Thursday, and as we all know, he couldn’t help talking about it.
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The Sooners aren’t just carrying the banner for the Big 12. They’re carrying the whole darn league.
That isn’t sustainable. Not for OU. Not for the Big 12. That’s why Boren put the league on notice.
But here’s the truth of the matter: while it’d be great if Oklahoma State regularly contended for a spot in the playoff and if Baylor could fix all that ails it while returning to winning ways and if TCU and West Virginia could deliver on the national-contender promise that they initially brought into the league, the school that Boren really put on notice is Texas. He didn’t call out the Longhorns by name, of course. But better football at Texas would go a long way to making a better Big 12.
…
As Boren said last week, the next round of conference realignment is likely to begin around 2022-23 when the first Power 5 conference sees its current media deal run out. The end of the Big Ten’s current media-rights deal could spark movement, and while OU would face repercussions if it broke its covenant with the Big 12 then, Boren seemed to hint that those financial issues could be dealt with if they were only around for a couple years.
I think it’s reasonable for OU to tell UT to get it together. If UT wants OU to stick around in the B12 then UT needs to carry it’s share of the weight again.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-north-carolina-academic-probe-20170510-story.html
The NCAA finally got Deborah Crowder to testify in the UNC case.
This shouldn’t impact the timeline with the committee hearing the case in August.
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Somebody try to defend this. I dare you.
http://m.startribune.com/gophers-softball-snubbed-in-ncaa-seeding-will-play-in-alabama/422217093/
3rd ranked, best record, no host, placed in same 1/8 as Fla?
No words…
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ccrider55,
“Somebody try to defend this. I dare you.
3rd ranked, best record, no host, placed in same 1/8 as Fla?
No words…”
1. B10 softball never gets respect outside of perhaps MI (19 regular season titles in 26 years).
2. B10 softball isn’t really that good, so MN’s record is inflated by the competition. The SEC got 13 teams into the tourney versus 6 from the B10 and 8 from the P12.
3. MN hasn’t played a tough schedule, also inflating their record. UF was only 3.5 games behind in total record and 8 of the 16 national seeds are from the SEC. MN’s OOC schedule was also fairly soft, filled with teams that missed or barely made the tourney.
Mowins noted that the Gophers were ranked No. 12 in the latest RPI rankings and were just 2-2 against top-25 RPI teams. The Gophers have victories over Louisiana State and California this year but haven’t beaten at top-10 RPI team.
As Mowins noted, all of the 16 seeded teams in the NCAA tournament have at least one top-10 RPI win.
We all know how much value NCAA committees tend to put on RPI, foolish though it may be. I’m not saying going unseeded was right, but it’s largely explainable. If you aren’t seeded than all teams are treated the same so going to UF was just bad luck based on who else made the tournament.
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Winning B1G tournament causes a dropout from the #7 pre selection ranking the same committee put out last week (according to Flugaur)?
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The committee, chaired by Keisha Dunlap, from Conference USA, qualified the rankings announcement, saying it “will have no bearing on the final bracket.”
How much time did they really spend on that bracket?
How close were #7 – #16?
Rather than viewing it as MN dropping, maybe other teams moved up by playing tougher teams in better conferences?
http://www.ncaa.com/news/softball/article/2017-05-06/ncaa-softball-championship-sport-committee-announces-second-top-10
The ranking is based on the criteria used to select and seed the 64 teams for the Division I Softball Championship and include strength of schedule, Rating Percentage Index, head-to-head competition, results versus common opponents, significant wins and losses and locations of contests. Additionally, input is provided by the regional advisory committees for consideration by the Division I Softball Committee.
Top 10 ranking (record as of games played through May 3):
1. Florida (46-5)
2. Florida St. (48-3-1)
3. Arizona (47-5)
4. Washington (38-10)
5. Auburn (43-8)
6. Oregon (41-6)
7. Minnesota (48-3)
8. Tennessee (42-8)
9. Texas A&M (41-7)
10. UCLA (37-12)
10 -> 5 UCLA (went 5-1)
NR -> 10 OU (50-8)
NR -> 11 Utah (33-14)
NR -> 12 MS (40-18)
NR -> 13 LSU (41-18)
NR -> 14 UK (36-17)
NR -> 15 BU (43-12)
NR -> 16 AL (42-16)
I admit MN’s record stands out compared to those lower seeds, but I think the lack of elite games really hurt them. Not saying it’s right, but it’s like a a mid-major in hoops.
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“…but it’s like a a mid-major in hoops”
Yup. And Davidson getting left out with a single loss a few years back was a travesty, too. Seriously, eighth in any conference (unless it has 32+ members) simply shouldn’t be seeded. Included? Ok, but not seeded.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/05/15/notre-dame-buyout-charlie-weis/101708588/
The total is in. Buying out Charlie Weis cost ND about $19M.
The final tab is in: former Notre Dame football coach Charlie Weis ended up receiving $18,967,960 from the university as a buyout for being fired in 2009.
The amount of the final installment — 2,054,742 for the 2015 calendar year — was disclosed on Notre Dame’s new federal tax return, which was released Monday.
The filing did not mention this would be the end of Weis’ payments the way the others did. Previous filings noted Weis was being paid through December 2015 as part of the termination agreement.
Weis received a little more than $6.6 million in buyout pay from the school in 2009 and got about $2.05 million each subsequent year. In addition, he was reported by the school to have received $469,727 in 2010 from Play By Play Sports LLC, an outside multimedia and marketing rights entity that is part of Notre Dame Sports Properties.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/now-right-time-notre-dame-join-acc-football.html
A little talk of ND to the ACC for football.
Is now the right time?
Here are the author’s reasons:
1. The ACC is on the rise as a conference in football while ND is down, so maybe the level of competition is more acceptable to ND now.
2. The ACCN is coming and that could be worth big money.
http://floridastate.247sports.com/Bolt/Wilcox-projects-significant-revenue-jump-from-ACC-Network-51424858
Florida State athletics director Stan Wilcox said the ACC’s revised television deal will deliver an increased payout of $3 million in the 2017-18 fiscal year.
Wilcox was asked about ACC television distributions at an FSU Board of Trustees meeting on Wednesday morning. A boost was expected with the July 2016 announcement of the ACC Network Extra by league commissioner John Swofford
Revenues will jump once the “linear” ACC Network launches in the fall of 2019. Wilcox said the ACC’s projections have indicated that the distribution per school will increase by $8 million-$10 million in 2019-20, and then $10 million-$15 million in future years.
“These are all projections,” Wilcox said. “It all depends on how well the network does. They are saying this network should have the same kind of return that the SEC Network has had in their first couple of years.”
It might be enough of a money gap to get ND to drop their NBC deal and join the ACC.
I just don’t see how the ACCN can make that much per year with cord cutting and lack of fan enthusiasm. The ACC has a populous footprint but they aren’t all diehards like the SEC has.
But if those numbers are correct and it’s true that ND’s deal with NBC is so small (they already get about $6M from the ACC deal for MBB and other sports and would get some ACCN money as well), I could see ND considering a move after 2025 when their NBC deal ends. Or maybe the ACC let’s ND keep the NBC deal for a reduced share of the ESPN (money is money but it let’s ND keep their unique TV identity as a way to appease alumni) deal as a way to get them on board.
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ND should wait to see what happens to Big 12/OU/Texas and the ACCN; why rush into a “permanent” solution when you don’t know how the ACCN will turn out?
My guess is that this is all being initiated by the ACC and ESPN to grab ND for the ACCN and their contracts. ESPN and the ACC know just how devastating cord cutting (and cable nevers) are to their strategy; they would like to have ND in the fold when ESPN goes to force Comcast/Charter/AT&T to swallow the ACCN.
No doubt, ACC’s been told that if ND is in the conference fully, they’ll have a far easier time getting coverage in the Northeast and at better rates throughout their footprint…
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IMO – Notre Dame will wait until it knows there is a glass ceiling keeping it out of the NCG. Until then it only makes sense to stay independent.
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z33k,
“ND should wait to see what happens to Big 12/OU/Texas and the ACCN; why rush into a “permanent” solution when you don’t know how the ACCN will turn out?”
The B12 TV deal ends at the same time as ND’s NBC deal (2025). That’s 6 years after the ACCN is supposed to start, so they’ll have some idea of what it’s like by then. That’s the window where I would consider movement possible for ND. They’ll know what the B10 is making and will have a good idea of how the B12 will do and thus whether the B12 is likely to implode.
“My guess is that this is all being initiated by the ACC and ESPN to grab ND for the ACCN and their contracts. ESPN and the ACC know just how devastating cord cutting (and cable nevers) are to their strategy; they would like to have ND in the fold when ESPN goes to force Comcast/Charter/AT&T to swallow the ACCN.”
I think the rumor is exactly what it says. Of course ND is talking with the ACC about it. They aren’t saying yes to joining, but they talk about it and what the issues/obstacles are. Lots of people talk about things.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/notre-dame/2017/05/16/swarbrick-notre-dame-football-not-joining-acc-full-time/326356001/
Jack Swarbrick flatly denies that ND is considering joining the ACC.
Notre Dame athletics director Jack Swarbrick said the school is not considering joining the Atlantic Coast Conference as a full-time member in football, despite rumors.
“Absolutely not true,” Swarbrick said at the ACC spring meetings Monday via the Orlando Sentinel. “We love the ACC, but we love our relationship the way it is and there hasn’t been any discussion.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19393008/liberty-pay-old-dominion-13-million-play-2018-home-opener-game
Liberty will pay ODU $1.3M to play in their home opener in 2018 as their first game as a I-A team.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/05/15/college-football-playoff-national-championship-game-halftime-show
ESPN and the CFP reached an interesting compromise.
ESPN wants to add a Super Bowl-like halftime show to the broadcast. What they’ve agreed to do is host a free concert near the stadium and show it live during halftime. The bands will still perform at the stadium and be shown on one of the megacast channels but ESPN itself will try to attract more viewers with the concert.
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http://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2017/05/82323/ohio-state-michigan-2017-officially-to-be-broadcasted-on-fox
It’s official. Today Fox announced that they will air The Game this year.
Other big games Fox announced:
Penn State at Ohio State on Oct. 28;
Notre Dame at Michigan State on Sept. 23;
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State on Nov. 4; and
Texas at USC on Sept. 16.
Still no word on when the B10/Fox deal will be finalized.
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By omission we can probably pencil in Oklahoma at Ohio State on ABC. ABC also probably has Texas/Oklahoma, etc.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/msu/football/2017/05/16/big-ten-conference-high-schools-discuss-conflicts-friday-night-games/323881001/
B10 and high school officials met to discuss the issue of Friday night games. They aren’t going away, so the discussion focused on how to minimize the problems.
“I think part of this has to be the local politics, if you will,” Phillips said Monday at Big Ten headquarters. “What does it feel like in Evanston versus what does it feel like in Lincoln or feels like in Iowa City or Columbus, Ohio. And the more we can allow those schools to locally have influence over what we do on Friday nights, the better off we’ll be.”
Administrators from a number of high school associations in the Midwest met for two hours Monday with the 12 Big Ten athletic directors, who are having their annual meetings at conference headquarters. Phillips said it was vital for the college representatives to hear the high school perspective on the impending Friday night move.
The Big Ten’s new television agreements with ABC/ESPN and Fox stipulates the conference will play six Friday games per year over the next six seasons. MSU’s only Friday game in 2017 as part of that pact was the since-moved game against Northwestern.
…
MSU athletic director Mark Hollis said moving the opener against Bowling Green requires Big Ten approval to move it to a Friday. Those MSU games, however, have not presented a conflict because Michigan high schools mostly play their games on the Thursday before Labor Day.
…
“The networks are still going through that process,” Hollis said. “I’m uncertain if our Labor Day (game) is going to be Friday, but it’s obviously been what I would call a very good tradition and would like to see it continue. Just waiting to hear word on that one.”
…
Illinois athletic director Josh Whitman likes the idea of his Illini playing two Friday night games this season.
“Obviously you play at whatever time on a Saturday afternoon, you’re competing with dozens of other games,” Whitman said. “A chance to be on a national platform, I think, is great for our program.”
Hollis said he understands that viewpoint.
“If you remember when we were building our men’s basketball program, it was ‘Anyone, anywhere, anyplace, any time.’ It was to get that exposure,” he said. “We have so many more teams in the Big Ten that trying to find those windows that allow you to get that exposure for the whole league is important. I’m not surprised, because you always want to be on TV, you want to create those windows.
“You understand the challenges with high school but I also think if you have that communication early on it gives the ability to create some pretty special times in those communities and high schools can adapt.”
Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith said he supported the idea of Friday night football “100%.”
“We have to be creative for our league,” Smith said. “Any time you have change of that nature, of that magnitude, there’s going to be some challenges. You just gotta fight through them.”
…
Phillips cited a number of factors for why it doesn’t work for Northwestern. He added that Purdue has been working with high schools around West Lafayette to move games to Ross-Ade Stadium on the Saturday after the Boilermakers play the Bobcats in September. That, Phillips said, is one way both groups can make things work cooperatively.
“Friday night football is beautiful,” he said, “and no one wants to disrupt that.”
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I’m going to dissect the valuation estimates for you guys to help you understand what they mean:
SNL Kagan valuation estimates:
SECN – $4.7B
BTN – $1.14B
P12N – $305M
Assuming 2% inflation over the operation of the networks, your cash flows have to look something like this to get to those numbers (note that I’m removing costs of operation; these numbers include payouts to schools + owners):
Next 10 years worth of earnings to justify those estimates, accounts for roughly 80% of above valuations, remaining 20% accounted for in years beyond:
Basic assumption: cord cutting decreases earnings over next 5 years, then stabilizes + digital/web/mobile payments outweigh cord cutting losses in subsequent 5 years:
Basic assumption 2: cost of running network at start for SEC and Pac-12 a bit higher than Big Ten (because they’re younger networks), that number was already subtracted out to get to these “earnings” estimates for the SNL Kagan valuations.
SECN (Disney + SEC earnings before payouts):
2018: $450m
2019: $435m
2020: $420m
2021: $410m
2022: $405m
2023: $415m
2024: $425m
2025: $440m
2026: $460m
2027: $485m
BTN (Fox + Big Ten earnings before payouts/dividends):
2018: $200m
2019: $170m
2020: $145m
2021: $120m
2022: $100m
2023: $80m
2024: $70m
2025: $75m
2026: $82m
2027: $90m
Pac-12N (Pac-12 earnings):
2018: $18m
2019: $19m
2020: $20m
2021: $21m
2022: $22m
2023: $24m
2024: $26m
2025: $28m
2026: $31m
2027: $34m
Okay, so that’s a set of earnings that’s probably similar to how SNL Kagan got to those valuations above; Pac-12’s are a bit different because it doesn’t have wide distribution so it will be affected far less by cord cutting and might just slowly increase the entire timeframe. This should help the discussion for Brian and ccrider55.
I make valuation estimates of businesses a lot, so I’m used to producing numbers like these.
SNL Kagan must have used brutal cord cutting estimates for the BTN to produce that sequence of earnings, and they’re far more pessimisstic of BTN/Pac-12N’s ability to build digital revenue.
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Obviously, keep in mind that the Big Ten earns a fixed payout per year + dividend from earnings (as 49% owner).
Latest year, the dividend split between Fox and Big Ten was around $45m (split 51-49). So that should tell you just how large the fixed payout per year is for the Big Ten (that’s at least $100m per year guaranteed).
I’m not sure what happens to the Big Ten’s fixed payout under these SNL Kagan estimates but it sounds like they don’t think the network will be able to pay that by the mid-2020s(which sounds dubious to me but that’s what their cord cutting estimates creates).
SNL Kagan is basically saying Fox won’t be happy with current network setup under their valuation metrics.
Pac-12 gets to just split that payout 12 ways between its 12 members; it’ll rise from around $1.5m to $2.8m per school by 2027.
SEC got around $100m from its network in 2015, but that will presumably rise as startup costs come off the books; either way their deal looks to put most of the payouts to Disney over time.
My guess would be SECN payouts look like something like $160-180m per year by 2020-2025; that’s around $12m per school. Either way Disney will be making a lot of money on it under SNL Kagan estimates.
Back to BTN, under SNL Kagan’s estimates the BTN will be losing money for FOX by the 2020s with a fixed payout to Big Ten around $120-130m per year by 2020-2025. Big Ten conference won’t be getting dividends, but each school will be getting near $9m or so per year.
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Summary:
Disney earns $200m-300m per year for SECN over next 10 years.
SEC takes in $100-120m per year now and around $160-180m at the end of 10 years (gradual increase) in fixed payments.
Big Ten takes in around $100m per year now and around $120-130m at the end of 10 years (gradual increase) in fixed payments.
Big Ten takes in an additional $23m per year now in dividends, and that will disappear by 2021 at which point the network is losing money.
Fox takes in $23m per year now in dividends, and loses money after 2021.
Pac-12 takes in $1.5m per year now and $2.8m per year at the end of 10 years (gradual increase).
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That Pac-12 number was per school; rest were conference wide or owner.
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z33k,
“Assuming 2% inflation over the operation of the networks, your cash flows have to look something like this to get to those numbers (note that I’m removing costs of operation; these numbers include payouts to schools + owners):
Next 10 years worth of earnings to justify those estimates, accounts for roughly 80% of above valuations, remaining 20% accounted for in years beyond:
Basic assumption: cord cutting decreases earnings over next 5 years, then stabilizes + digital/web/mobile payments outweigh cord cutting losses in subsequent 5 years:”
Thanks. I’ll take your word for the numbers.
“SNL Kagan must have used brutal cord cutting estimates for the BTN to produce that sequence of earnings, and they’re far more pessimisstic of BTN/Pac-12N’s ability to build digital revenue.”
Yes, since the revenue drops by almost 2/3. That seems unrealistically negative to me.
Is there any chance SNL Kagan gave a 50% valuation to BTN (how much it’s worth to Fox or the B10, not how much it’s worth to both) in their report and people are misunderstanding it? It’s just hard to grasp why the BTN would suffer that much more than the SECN.
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I don’t think it’s possible they made that mistake because of the payout structure of the BTN. If they did then they don’t understand that most of the earnings of the BTN go to the Big Ten because of the guaranteed rights fee included.
The problem then is that the numbers become too small to work; Fox takes roughly $40+m a year from the BTN on their consolidated balance sheet (pre-tax/interest as a majority owned subsidiary); there’s no way to make that number turn into a $1bn+ valuation unless you count on that number growing rapidly (which obviously isn’t going to happen with cord cutting currently outweighing digital/web/mobile growth until cord cutting stabilizes).
It just seems to me that they used really brutal cord cutting assumptions that negatively impact the BTN’s valuation.
I find it hard to believe that BTN won’t be cover the Big Ten’s guaranteed rights fees by 2021.
The only way that happens is if a “worst case scenario” comes to pass and the BTN only has around 25m subs by 2021.
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Hunter Woodhull from Utah, becomes first double amputee to get a D1 track scholarship. He will be going to Arkansas. He is a very nice young man. I met him and his parents at the Olympic Qualifiers in Charlotte last year. He was born with a disease that led to a double amputation of his feet when he was very young. He went on to play high school football and set a Utah state 400 meter championship on blades.
He won two medals in Rio last year.
Running blades are interesting. For short distances, blades are a major disadvantage compared to normal legs. At longer distances, blades actually can be an advantage. I am not sure of the reason for this, but that is what I have been told.
http://www.teamusa.org/US-Paralympics/Features/2017/May/15/Arkansas-Bound-Hunter-Woodhall-Becomes-First-Double-Amputee-To-Earn-D1-Track-Scholarship
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Normal size heart and lungs needing to supply O2 to far less muscle mass and less byproduct (lactic acid, etc) to remove?
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http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/shatel-rumblings-of-sooners-could-shake-big-ten-if-realignment/article_54469e07-11a3-5510-b584-df0ae0a98795.html
Tom Shatel talks about the B10 possibly adding OU.
Could the Sooners one day join the Big Ten? That would be the Nebraska dream.
Boomer Sooner in the Big Ten West? Pardon us, Iowa, we’d be setting a new plate for Thanksgiving dinner.
But as much as I’ve tried to dismiss the idea as the impossible dream in the past, Boren kept referencing the Big Ten.
…
He also praised the Big Ten and Pac-12 as deserving of their “stature in the academic community.” He said the fact that Oklahoma is not a member of the Association of American Universities would not keep OU out of the Big Ten.
Yep, he’s pretty much a conspiracy theorist’s dream.
Look, it would be terrific to have Oklahoma back in the hood. Is this a realistic, viable option?
It’s no secret: Oklahoma loves Texas. Not the Longhorns; the Sooners historically love recruiting the state, playing games there, hanging out there, etc. I’m having a hard time seeing OU coaches, players and fans under cold, gray skies in East Lansing, Michigan. An even harder time selling recruits in Texas, where they have entrenched talent pipelines, to play in the November cold.
Maybe adding two to the Big Ten West, say Oklahoma and Kansas, would be more enticing. OU would play NU, KU, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Northwestern. You might be able to sell Sooner fans on that.
One problem: As Oklahoma City columnist Berry Tramel points out, the Sooners will need to keep their series with Texas and Oklahoma State going. If those two are nonconference games, that leaves one open date with nine Big Ten games.
Maybe Texas would want to come, too?
Two problems: OU has dominated Big 12 football. The Sooners got a little taste of what the Big Ten would be like from Ohio State last year.
I see Oklahoma as a fit in the SEC, especially against Arkansas, Texas A&M, LSU and Alabama. But there, too, the art of winning championships just got tougher.
Pac-12? Not a great fit but not bad. It’s a lot of travel, though that would be the case wherever the Sooners go. If they go.
Oklahoma has a pretty good setup in the Big 12, but it’s not perfect. The Sooners don’t carry the cache of Texas in the league. Boren wanted the league to expand. How did that go?
Just for fun, assume OU and KU join. What are the final week games?
Givens:
OSU/MI
PU/IN
IL/NW
WI/MN
PSU/MSU/RU/UMD
New:
NE/OU
IA/KU
What if it’s OU and UT?
Givens:
OSU/MI
PU/IN
IL/NW
WI/MN
PSU/MSU/RU/UMD
New (boring choices):
NE/OU
IA/UT
Outside the box thoughts:
NE/OU
UT/PSU
IA/MSU
RU/UMD
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Your comments on final games is interesting. Before Chicago pulled out of the Big Ten, Illinois played Chicago in the season finale, and Iowa played primarily Northwestern and Nebraska in its final. When Chicago pulled out, Illinois switched its final game to Northwestern, leaving Iowa as the odd team out. Iowa pushed for Nebraska to be the replacement for Chicago, and actually voted against Michigan St. being added. Iowa and Michigan St. first played each other in 1953, and only played each other 7 times in the 50’s and 60’s. It’s not a big rivalry.
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unproductive,
“Iowa pushed for Nebraska to be the replacement for Chicago, and actually voted against Michigan St. being added.”
Good enough reason to dislike each other, at least in one direction.
“Iowa and Michigan St. first played each other in 1953, and only played each other 7 times in the 50’s and 60’s. It’s not a big rivalry.”
I know it isn’t, but they were both odd teams out. They are on similar levels as programs (MSU is up now, I’m talking in general) so it could become a pretty even series which might spice things up. MSU/WI became a bit of a rivalry that way.
The two blue blood matchups are just so intriguing for TV that it’s hard to believe the B10 would pass up the money from those games to pair UT/IA and PSU/MSU although that would avoid divisional crossover issues.
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MSU is kind of a funny school. From its standpoint, it’s biggest rival is Michigan, and its second (at least in football) is probably Notre Dame. When Penn St, joined, the Big Ten tried to turn the MSU-Penn St. game into the final game rivalry series (Iowa as the odd team out again!), so it created some hideous trophy that neither school really cared about. Besides, both MSU and Penn St. believe that they are on the level of, and really should be playing, Michigan and Ohio State, instead of each other. Rotating MSU, Penn St., Rutgers and Maryland as the season final (which the Big Ten is now doing, I think), probably makes the most sense.
I agree that the Big Ten would not pass up the opportunity for more money, even at the expense of tradition or school desires. The Little Brown Jug and the Illibuck, as well as Friday night games, are proof of that.
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The P12 2015-16 financial info is out.
*** Total Revenue
Increased from $439 million in FY15 to $488 million in FY16.
The jump was largely due to a $15 million bump in media rights — there’s an escalator clause in the ESPN/Fox deal — and a $27 million increase in bowl revenue (first year of combined CFP and Rose Bowl payouts).
…
*** School distributions.
…
The average payout in FY16 was $28.7 million per school, broken down as follows:
…
Key point: That’s a gross number. Where applicable, the conference is withholding money to cover the cost of the Tier 3 (i.e., local) media rights buyback that occurred when the Pac-12 pooled all its content during negotiations with ESPN and Fox.
In some cases, it’s a substantial amount. I spoke to Arizona officials a few weeks ago as part of my upcoming series, and the Wildcats have $1.5 million withheld annually for their Tier 3 buyback. Arizona’s net payout from the conference is actually a bit more than $27 million.
…
*** Pac-12 Networks
In FY16 — it’s fourth year of existence — the P12Nets reported $128 million in income, a 10 percent year-over-year increase.
…
But multiple sources have pegged that figure [payout] in FY16 at approximately $2 million per school.
That’s $24 million, backed out of the $128 million in income … the expense math is pretty clear. The seven-feed entity is costly.
*** Comparisons with other Power Fives
No surprise here: The Pac-12 lags the SEC and Big Ten in payouts. It also trails the Big 12, for reasons noted below:
Fiscal year 2015 school distributions
SEC: $32.7 million
Big Ten: $32.4 million
Pac-12: $25.1 million
Big 12: 23.4 million
Fiscal year 2016 school distributions
SEC: $40.5 million
Big Ten: $34.8 million
Pac-12: $28.7 million
Big 12: $28.45 million
Notes:
SEC figure is midpoint of confirmed range of $39.1 million to $41.9 million … Big Ten figure is for 11 continuing members … Big 12 figure is midpoint of confirmed range of $28 million to $28.9 million. Big 12 distributions do not include income from Tier 3 rights, which are owned by the schools.
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There’s a discrepancy between what USA Today (or whoever) gets from the tax returns and what the Big 12 is reporting publically. Not clear what the difference is. Big 12 reporting higher both years, $25.2 million in 2015 and $30.4 million in 2016.
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It’s presumably some form of disbursement that doesn’t show up on the tax forms. Maybe bowl expenses being reimbursed or something. As long as the writers use the same source for all the leagues, the results should be consistent if not accurate (I’m guessing every league has some minor issues like that).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19420865/acc-revenue-slightly-373-million
The ACC had a revenue drop for 2015-16.
ACC revenue dipped slightly to $373 million for the 2015-16 year, according to its federal tax return released Friday.
There are two reasons the overall revenue decreased.
The $403 million it earned the previous year included a $31 million exit fee payment from Maryland and a payout from its primary bowl partner, the Capital One Orange Bowl. In 2015-16, the Orange Bowl hosted the College Football Playoff semifinals, so the payout from that game did not belong to the ACC.
Despite the decrease in 2015-16, the ACC received more revenue from its television payout, up $9 million to $226 million. It also received $85.9 million in bowl payouts, and $20.6 million from the NCAA basketball tournament (also an increase).
The 14 full-time member schools received an average of $26.3 million. Notre Dame, a member in all sports but football, received $4.25 million. Clemson led the way among all ACC schools, receiving $27.9 million.
SEC: $40.5 million
Big Ten: $34.8 million
Pac-12: $28.7 million
Big 12: $28.45 million
ACC: $26.3 million
In addition, the league also paid its schools more than $13.2 million in championship reimbursements, which is not reflected in the payout figures.
This might explain your discrepancy, bullet.
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http://www.jconline.com/story/sports/college/purdue/basketball/2017/05/16/support-grows-protect-big-ten-basketball-rivalries/101751824/
The B10 is slowly moving towards locking important rivalries (IN/PU, MI/MSU, IL/NW) in hoops. PU has been pushing this for years and the coaches and ADs are on board. There is also discussion of moving to 20 games.
Conference expansion has forced those twice-a-year regular season showdowns into a scheduling rotation that may, or may not, include the games we cherish the most.
Matt Painter has been a driving force behind it. Purdue’s veteran coach has brought the rest of the league’s coaches to his side. Now, the decision makers in the Big Ten Conference are drifting toward Painter’s way of thinking and are moving the process forward.
It’s only a matter of time before it becomes reality.
“The next step – and what we agreed to do (Tuesday) – was push that back to the scheduling folks here in the league and have them take a look at it,” Purdue athletic director Mike Bobinski said Tuesday during a break at the Big Ten Joint Group Meetings inside the league office.
…
“I don’t think you can force a rivalry,” PSU athletic director Sandy Barbour said. “We don’t have one that stands out. Over time, maybe if we create one then Penn State might have a stake in something we would like to protect.
“Purdue-Indiana, Michigan-Michigan State, Northwestern-Illinois, those make us all stronger. I’m thrilled to support that.”
Painter has been pushing this concept for several years. It hasn’t gone unnoticed by Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany.
“Matt is providing a lot of leadership and a lot of sound thinking,” Delany said. “We’re not ready to make any changes at this point but I can tell you the coaches had very constructive discussions on the issues of number of games as well as rivalry games.”
Right now, it’s an 18-game regular season conference schedule. Can a 20-game season be far behind?
“I can’t tell you how close we are but I think it’s an active discussion on that issue for sure,” Delany said.
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Sandy Barbour is partially correct on rivalries. We have no Big 10 rivalries. However we have Pitt and she needs to keep the Panthers on the schedule ( especially In football). The reality is we will never have a great rivalry with anyone in the Big 10. Dont believe me? We are the “Big Bad” in wrestling, and Ohio State and Iowa are not far behind, and even there the hate has not happened.
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David Brown,
“Sandy Barbour is partially correct on rivalries. We have no Big 10 rivalries.”
I don’t think that’s quite true. I agree you don’t have an all sports rival, though. Part of that is the B10 has such a long history without PSU that the other schools already established rivalries and new rivalries are harder to establish. I also think PSU’s long history as an independent impacts this. It developed a certain mindset in PSU fans that is hard to undo. PSU built their football program on being the lone superpower in the northeast and had no regular series with the other power program with an eastern fan base (ND). That left regional rivalries, and Pitt was the closest and best of PSU’s regular opponents. Before JoePa, Pitt was better than PSU.
“However we have Pitt and she needs to keep the Panthers on the schedule ( especially In football).”
It’s always good to preserve the big rivalries. They’ve been the greatest casualty of realignment (KU/MO, UT/TAMU, etc).
“The reality is we will never have a great rivalry with anyone in the Big 10. Dont believe me? We are the “Big Bad” in wrestling, and Ohio State and Iowa are not far behind, and even there the hate has not happened.”
I think PSU has or will develop some B10 rivalries in individual sports (PSU/UMD or PSU/RU in lacrosse, maybe), but an all-sports rivalry seems unlikely. I think you already have one with Iowa in wrestling based on how the staunch PSU and Iowa wrestling fans talk. There is definitely hate there. IA and PA are 2 of the best wrestling states in the nation so there are a lot of informed fans on both sides and they’ve been filling arenas for years. When the B10 schedule didn’t pair IA and PSU, the coaches agreed to meet OOC to maintain the rivalry. Sportswriters in IA call it a rivalry as do the coaches.
I could see PSU/RU or PSU/UMD developing as rivalries in lacrosse. I’d say PSU/OSU is a rivalry in football, just not a major one for OSU (all other potential rivalries get lost in the shadow of MI).
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Go visit the McAndrew board at any time and there’s an undoubtedly a thread on OSU and probably one on UM. i think you have a rival whether you know it or not.
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Maryland has begun to build B1G rivalries in individual sports, some based on pre-conference history — Penn State in football, Michigan State in men’s basketball (the Terps and Spartans had some memorable NCAA tourney games), Northwestern in women’s lacrosse (they dominated the sport for several years). Others, such as Ohio State in women’s basketbal, have developed after joining the B1G. (Rutgers and to a lesser extent PSU were regular OOC foes in women’s hoops, but both programs have declined a bit in recent years.)
Rutgers’ relative lack of big-time sports history works against it for now when the Knights face the Terps or PSU. By the end of the 2020s, that may change.
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https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/big-ten-conference-officials-not-expect-blowback-got-moving-football-games-fridays
Several notes from the B10 meetings:
“The commissioner [Jim Delany] made the comment that Friday night games have been happening all across the country,” Tenopir, executive director of the Nebraska School Activities Association, told Land of 10 during Day One of the Big Ten Conference Joint Group Meetings.
“They did not expect the blowback that the Big Ten got on Friday nights.”
And by “blowback,” he means calls. Emails. Facebook comments. General social media hell.
Executives from seven state athletic or activities associations within the Big Ten footprint … met with league officials for two hours at the Big Ten’s suburban Chicago headquarters Monday to explain their concerns with the conference’s decision to play football games, including intraleague matchups, on Friday nights starting this fall.
Tenopir said Big Ten officials countered that the intent of Friday games was getting “some better prime-time coverage for some Big Ten teams that are traditionally second-tier compared to Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska.
“They downplayed the revenue. But if television’s involved, you have to know that revenue is a portion of that.”
…
“Jim Delany was very specific that this was a six-year television contract. Whatever [adjustment] there would be probably wouldn’t occur until after this six-year time period. And they’re as interested as we are in knowing how that Friday night, the 29th of September, will impact both Huskers football and high school football, volleyball, and other activities that have been competed on that particular night.”
…
1. The league promises to stay away from any other weeknight football games — for now
…
“… I think they also want to tackle a 14th week, in order to have two bye weeks and a 12-game season “
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I don’t think the SEC or Big 12 are doing any regular Friday night games. The ACC and Pac 12 are mostly in places where HS football is not as big a deal.
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Last year’s P5 Friday games outside of holiday weekends:
11/11 BC @ FSU
10/21 OR @ Cal
10/14 Duke @ UL
10/14 MsSU @ BYU
10/7 Clemson @ BC
9/30 Stanford @ UW
9/23 TCU @ SMU
9/23 USC @ Utah
9/16 Baylor @ Rice
9/16 ASU @ UTSA
9/9 UL @ SU
Some of those are HS football hotbeds.
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Dumping Conference Members
I have noted a few people talking about certain conferences dumping their least valuable members, and quite a few of you saying that will never happen. I have always been in the camp with those who don’t think anyone will get thrown out, but I saw an article today from the Kansas City Star talking about the potential for the death penalty for Baylor and/or the Big12 kicking Baylor out of the conference over the on going scandal.
I do wonder under these circumstances you would toss out a school like Baylor. I think in the unlikely situation they get the death penalty it would be an easy move, then just replace with Cinci or BYU. Thoughts?
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/article151324857.html
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Brigham Young has more upside but brings more headaches, both political and geographical (a conference spanning three time zones). Cincinnati makes more sense, plus it finally gives West Virginia an eastern travel partner.
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Zach,
“I have noted a few people talking about certain conferences dumping their least valuable members, and quite a few of you saying that will never happen.”
The only way it happens is if college sports becomes fully professional. In that case, the lesser schools couldn’t afford to keep up and would dilute the revenues too much. Then the top programs might separate out of necessity. Barring that, nobody will get dropped except for egregious problems (Temple not keeping up in sports at all, etc).
“I have always been in the camp with those who don’t think anyone will get thrown out, but I saw an article today from the Kansas City Star talking about the potential for the death penalty for Baylor and/or the Big12 kicking Baylor out of the conference over the on going scandal.”
The NCAA is investigating and will probably punish BU for LOIC and impermissible benefits and such, but it won’t rise to the level of the death penalty. All the rapes and failures to report are Title IX issues and legal issues, but not really covered by the NCAA bylaws directly. The NCAA could try to sneak by on the sort of charges they leveled on PSU if they go through their normal penalty procedure, but I doubt they will.
The NCAA had a chance to rewrite their bylaws to specifically cover illegality and moral/ethical issues after PSU and they chose not to. It’s hard to punish schools for those things under vague bylaws. That’s why we won’t see the DP. Remember, SMU got busted paying players and then kept doing it and got busted again just after being told to stop. That’s what got them the DP.
As for the B12, they have already “punished” BU by withholding 25% of their conference payout. Having done that, they have no intention of doing anything else unless things get much worse at BU. If BU gets the DP or if the feds cut off their funding for Title IX violations then the B12 might boot them. But who would they replace BU with? They don’t want to have only 9 teams, but maybe they just wait for BU to recover. And if they have to expand, do they go back to 12, or 11 with a spot for BU after they get past their issues, or stop at 10?
“I do wonder under these circumstances you would toss out a school like Baylor. I think in the unlikely situation they get the death penalty it would be an easy move, then just replace with Cinci or BYU. Thoughts?”
I’d think BYU would be their top choice, but they chose nobody last time they looked. Maybe it’s the straw that breaks the camel’s back and the B12 falls apart. How would the GoR be impacted? Would the B12 be violating their TV deals due to lack of inventory?
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Brian, I agree that it would something truly extraordinary for any P5 conf to drop one or two schools. There is too much money in TV contracts to upset the apple cart.
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There is no way schools like Kansas State would vote to kick out Baylor. First the Big 10 ( which is far more prestigious and image conscious the Big XII) could have thrown out Penn State over Sandusky and did not. If Penn State did not get the SMU death penalty no one is. More importantly, in an era of “Cord Cutting” and cutbacks, I bet ESPN and for that matter Fox would not be sorry to not pay the Big XII, and see Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas go to a stronger Conference. Basically, K-STATE knows that the “Big Brother” Jayhawks would ditch them in a nanosecond for the B10 if the land grant ended because of no Baylor. In other words Baylor is safe.
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The great irony in cord cutting is that it’s changed the incentives for TV Networks with respect to the conferences.
In the past, only the conferences themselves had an interest in expansion to “rationalize” the sport by aggregating viewers towards the conferences with the most fans and ability to attract sports viewers.
But now, with cord cutting, even FOX and ESPN have an incentive to favor that approach. Both have models that previously disfavored “larger” conferences (because it was always cheaper to have the conferences more diluted with more “power conferences”).
In the future though I don’t think that’s necessarily the case. In the future, for the cable networks transitioning towards digital and trying to actually keep viewership and stabilize their sub rates and fees; it makes more sense to have larger conferences that can actually attract more viewers.
In a sense, I’d argue that as long as FOX and ESPN are working together now (see Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 contracts); it makes more sense for them to let the Big 12 die and have OU and Texas go to conferences that they already provide for (Pac-12 or Big Ten).
I’m not saying they’ll actively push for that outcome; but I actually think ESPN won’t step in to protect the Big 12 like they basically did with the LHN. It makes a lot more sense now to just let the Big 12 collapse and shift a small part of that $200m+ that ESPN/FOX pay towards the conferences where OU and Texas end up while dropping the remainder of the Big 12 towards AAC-like payouts.
It’s a completely different world to what it was 5-10 years ago.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/05/18/satellite-camps-lsu-louisiana-michigan-texas-blocked
Did LSU pressure SE Louisiana and Tulane to drop major out of state schools from their summer camps? UT, TAMU, AR, UH and MI were all announced as taking part in camps at one of those two schools before all being uninvited. LSU was announced as the headliner at each school instead.
Other schools have been told not to come to a camp before (UNT told MI not to show up and OU was the headliner), but uninviting an announced headliner is a bigger deal.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/las-vegas-sportsbook-college-football-win-totals-where-are-they-wrong
Vegas has released some win totals. CFN gives their number, too.
B10:
Vegas: Ohio State 10
CFN: Ohio State 10.5
Vegas: Penn State 9.5
CFN: Penn State 9.5
Vegas: Wisconsin 9.5
CFN: Wisconsin 9.5
Vegas: Michigan 9
CFN: Michigan 9
Vegas: Northwestern 7
CFN: Northwestern 7.5
Vegas: Iowa 6.5
CFN: Iowa 8
Vegas: Michigan State 6.5
CFN: Michigan State 7.5
Vegas: Nebraska 6
CFN: Nebraska 8
Vegas: Indiana 5.5
CFN: Indiana 6
National teams with a 9 or higher:
SEC:
Vegas: Alabama 10.5
CFN: Alabama 10.5
Vegas: LSU 9
CFN: LSU 8.5
Vegas: Florida 8
CFN: Florida 9
Vegas: Georgia 8
CFN: Georgia 9
ACC:
Vegas: Florida State 9.5
CFN: Florida State 10.5
Vegas: Clemson 9
CFN: Clemson 10
Vegas: Louisville 9
CFN: Louisville 9
Vegas: Virginia Tech 9
CFN: Virginia Tech 8.5
Vegas: Miami 8.5
CFN: Miami 9
B12:
Vegas: Oklahoma 9.5
CFN: Oklahoma 9.5
Vegas: Oklahoma State 9
CFN: Oklahoma State 8.5
P12:
Vegas: USC 9.5
CFN: USC 10.5
Vegas: Washington 9.5
CFN: Washington 9
Vegas: Oregon 8
CFN: Oregon 9
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http://usatodayhss.com/2017/study-female-athletes-more-likely-than-males-to-report-concussion-symptoms
Girls are much more likely than boys to report sports concussions, but large groups of both genders didn’t report them because they didn’t view it as serious.
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Non-revenue sports update.
Playing this weekend:
M tennis – OSU in quarterfinals (#3 seed)
W tennis – OSU in quarterfinals (#3 seed)
M lacrosse – UMD & OSU in quarterfinals (#1 & #3 seeds respectively)
W lacrosse – UMD & PSU in quarterfinals (#1 & #4 seeds respectively)
W golf – NW, MSU, OSU, PU, MI
W softball regionals – MN, OSU, WI, IL, MI
Next weekend:
M golf – IL, PU, PSU
W rowing – OSU, MI, WI, IN, IA
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Early Saturday results:
M tennis – OSU in quarterfinals (#3 seed)
OSU wins 4-3 over TCU to advance to final four and face #2 seed UVA
…
M lacrosse – OSU in quarterfinals (#3 seed)
OSU wins 16-11 over Duke to advance to the final four to play the Syracuse/Towson winner
…
W lacrosse – UMD in quarterfinals (#1 seed)
UMD wins 13-12 over Stony Brook to advance to the final four and face the PSU/Princeton winner
…
W golf – NW, MSU, OSU, PU, MI
After 1 round (round 2 was rained out) of 4:
1. NW
2. Kent St +2
3t. OSU +10 (relative to #1)
3t. ASU, Stanford, Baylor
7. SC +12
8. UNC +13
9t. PU +14
9t. MI +14
13t. MSU +16
Way to go northern schools.
…
W softball regionals – MN, OSU, WI, IL, MI
WI and MI are 1-0
MN won their first game then lost to AL. They need to win 3 straight including 2 over AL to advance and they’re playing in Tuscaloosa.
IL won their first game then lost to UK. They need to win 3 straight including 2 over UK to advance and they’re playing in Lexington.
OSU is 0-1. They need to win 4 straight including 2 over TN to advance and they’re playing in Knoxville.
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Ongoing:
W softball regionals – MN, OSU, WI, IL, MI
OSU & IL eliminated
MN needs to beat LT then sweep 2 games vs AL
WI needs to sweep 2 games vs OR
MI needs to sweep 2 games vs UW
W tennis – OSU in quarterfinals this evening
W golf – NW, MSU, OSU, PU, MI (final round in Monday)
Updates for next weekend:
M tennis – OSU in semifinals vs UVA
M lacrosse – UMD (vs Denver) & OSU (vs Towson) in semifinals
W lacrosse – UMD & PSU meet in semifinals
M golf – IL, PU, PSU
W rowing – OSU, MI, WI, IN, IA
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Updates:
W tennis – OSU in semifinals this evening (rain delay)
W golf – NW, MSU, OSU, PU, MI (final round in Monday)
The top 8 teams advance to match play. Mostly through the final round:
1. NW
2. Stanford +13
3t. USC, ASU +18
…
7t. OSU +23
…
9. SC +28
13. PU +35
17. MI +39
19. MSU +48
W softball regionals – all 5 teams eliminated
M tennis – OSU lost in semifinals vs UVA
Updates for next weekend:
M lacrosse – UMD (vs Denver) & OSU (vs Towson) in semifinals
W lacrosse – UMD & PSU meet in semifinals
M golf – IL, PU, PSU
W rowing – OSU, MI, WI, IN, IA
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Updates:
W golf – NW and OSU advance to match play
The top 8 teams advance:
1. NW
2. Stanford +8
3. ASU +12
4. OSU + 16
5t. USC
5t. UF
7. Baylor
8. Kent St
3 northern schools advance
W softball regionals – all 5 teams eliminated
M tennis – OSU lost in semifinals vs UVA
W tennis – OSU lost in semifinals vs Stanford
Updates for next weekend:
M lacrosse – UMD (vs Denver) & OSU (vs Towson) in semifinals
W lacrosse – UMD & PSU meet in semifinals
M golf – IL, PU, PSU
W rowing – OSU, MI, WI, IN, IA
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Update:
W golf – NW and OSU advance to match play
OSU lost to USC.
NW beat Kent St and is now facing USC in the semifinals.
ASU and Stanford also advanced.
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Update:
W golf:
NW is facing USC in the semifinals which was just called for darkness.
1. NW +1 (thru 15)
2. USC +1 (thru 14)
3. USC +2 (thru 13)
4. USC +1 (thru 12)
5. USC +1 (thru 11)
Stanford leads ASU 2-1 with 1 match tied thru 16 and Stanford leading the other by 1 on the 18th fairway.
Play will resume tomorrow.
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NW and ASU both came back today to win and will play this evening in the finals.
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ASU won 3-1-1.
Not a great week for the B10 in NCAA play. Hopefully lacrosse goes better this weekend.
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https://www.fanragsports.com/news/matchups-set-2017-gavitt-games/
The Gavitt Games matchups are out.
Nov. 13th: Minnesota at Providence
Nov. 14th: Purdue at Marquette
Nov. 15th: Butler at Maryland, Creighton at Northwestern, Indiana at Seton Hall
Nov. 16th: Xavier at Wisconsin, Nebraska at St. John’s
Nov. 17th: DePaul at Illinois
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Part 1 in a series on the financial health of the public P12 schools by Jon Wilner.
Above he gave the data for fiscal 2016. In this one he gives estimates going forward based on information from the schools and conferences. I inserted the relevant ACC information for comparison.
Buried within the numbers are three items worth highlighting:
1. The FY17 payments include a one-time supplemental distribution from the NCAA of approximately $850,000 per campus.
2. Washington’s appearance in the College Football Playoff was worth approximately $450,000 to each school, according to information provided by UW.
3. The Pac-12 Networks are expected to account for approximately $2.5 million of the conference payments.
The bottom-line projection — the $29.5 million per-school distribution — supports the Hotline’s view that, short of a deal with DirecTV, the conference lacks a significant near-term revenue stimulant.
Increases in distributions in coming years will likely unfold on the margins, driven by the escalator clause in the ESPN/Fox deals and new Pac-12 Networks streaming deals.
…
It’s not unreasonable to envision the per-school distributions unfolding in this approximate manner (with 10 percent year-over-year increases included in the Big 12 and Pac-12 projections for FY18):
2016 (actual)
SEC: $40.5 million
Big Ten: $34.8 million
Pac-12: $28.7 million
Big 12: $28.45 million
(The ACC has not reported FY16.)
[USA Today just showed them at $26.3M, but probably after Wilner wrote this]
2017 (projected)
SEC: $44 million
Big Ten: $38 million
Big 12: $34 million (per commissioner Bob Bowlsby)
Pac-12: $29.5 million
[ACC: $29M – using 10% bump as Wilner did]
2018 (projected)
SEC: $45+ million
Big Ten: $45 million (new Tier 1 deal)
Big 12: $37.5 million
Pac-12: $32.5 million
[ACC: $32M – using 10% bump as Wilner did]
A few notes:
* Shouldn’t FY18 SEC be more like $48.5M? That would be a 10% bump.
* The old B10 estimate was for a jump to $44.5M for FY18. After the negotiations, that seems a little low to me. I’m estimating it more in the $46-47M range. On the other hand, the University of Iowa had it at $43.7M as of 9/30/2016 (but their FY16 estimate was $1.5M low).
* Add in the usual caveat for bullet that the B12 number doesn’t include tier 3 money. That probably average around $8M putting the B12 on par but with greater disparity from top to bottom.
* The ACCN should start in FY20, so the ACC may make a jump then.
Now for the part ccrider55 will hate as always:
In other words …
Barring a major new revenue stream, each Pac-12 school will be $12+ million behind its SEC and Big Ten peers for the final seven years of the conference’s Tier 1 deal, which runs through 2023-24.
The Hotline has addressed this scenario previously. But as each year passes with no Pac-12 revenue game-changers … as Pac-12 Networks distribution continues to lag … as the Big Ten’s new Tier 1 deal draws closer and as the SEC Network continues to mint money … as all those competing dynamics unfold, we get closer to the billion dollar reality.
Seven years of a $12+ million per year deficit for Pac-12 schools equates to an $84 million per school disparity, through the current Tier 1 deal, relative to schools in the SEC and Big Ten.
And $84 million per school for a 12-team conference is a $1 billion deficit.
If it wasn’t for geography, I think we’d all consider the P12 vulnerable.
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Brian:
No, my problem is with Wilner.
“…supports the Hotline’s view that, short of a deal with DirecTV, the conference lacks a significant near-term revenue stimulant.”
Yet just a few months ago he was saying a DTV deal really wouldn’t have a very significant effect (maybe >1M per school, iirc).
But primarily he has been single minded in his thinking that an equity sale is required. He gives almost no value to what full ownership brings, and more importantly what obligations/encumbrances that co-ownership could impose.
I’m not smart enough to understand all the moving pieces, but if another run at P16 is somewhere in the future an independent conf network would seem to give the most flexibility. That includes the possibility of an equity sale at that time in order to consummate the deal. Hidden very long term potential through ownership that Wilner (looking at short term bottom line) either misses, or discounts.
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Well, the difference between having an equity backer (FOX or ESPN) is that the equity backer isn’t just taking a percentage of the ownership.
They’re also giving back “guaranteed annual payments” (i.e. SECN or BTN) and providing negotiating leverage for network for carriage.
It’s not a simple issue.
The problem that the Pac-12 may have is that they’ve researched co-ownership (BTN) or non-ownership (SECN) and not really found an adequate accomodation.
FOX is giving the Big Ten roughly $100m annually guaranteed as a part of the deal the Big Ten signed giving them a half the network.
ESPN is giving SEC even higher guaranteed payments over the near/longer term than Big Ten will receive from FOX; but SEC receives no dividends, whereas the Big Ten receives roughly 49% of the after-tax profit of the BTN (around $23m in a recent year).
So there’s all sorts of issues that have to be discussed.
Whether you’re talking about roughly half-ownership (BTN) or non-ownership (SECN); the most important factor is the guaranteed annual payment; if that isn’t high enough, then it’s not necessarily in the Pac-12’s interest to sell that part of the ownership.
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So all of this comes down to what the offers on the table were:
If FOX (let’s use them for this example), was only offering a flat initial fee of say $100m in order to own equity in the Pac-12N then of course it was sensible to reject that.
If FOX was offering $100m in annual guaranteed payments for a half, then it was crazy to reject that.
Most likely, the answer is somewhere in the middle:
If FOX was offering $50m in annual guaranteed payments for 50% of the network, then you have a lot to discuss. That would probably boost annual Pac-12 payouts per school by roughly $3m per year versus 100% ownership over next 5-10 years, but at the same time, if coverage is above expectations (so far it’s not), then it might end up looking like a poor deal.
If I had to guess, the annual payments offered were probably below what Pac-12 would have wanted (if they did fully explore a deal with FOX or ESPN).
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And yes, if Scott thinks a Pac-16 with Texas/OU are on the table, then owning 100% makes some sense because you can get far higher value in any deal than you would otherwise (but I think that might be negotiable after the additions of other schools; the Big Ten is getting higher guaranteed payments with Nebraska/Rutgers/Maryland than the original deal 10 years ago).
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ccrider55,
“No, my problem is with Wilner.”
Well, presumably with his opinion on this issue and not him personally.
“…supports the Hotline’s view that, short of a deal with DirecTV, the conference lacks a significant near-term revenue stimulant.”
“Yet just a few months ago he was saying a DTV deal really wouldn’t have a very significant effect (maybe >1M per school, iirc).”
Is he wrong? Is there any other significant source of revenue available to them? He can also be right that even a DTV deal might not be a game changer while saying it’s the only major revenue source out there for them.
“But primarily he has been single minded in his thinking that an equity sale is required.”
That’s not what I take from his work. I think he keeps saying that an equity sale is required if the P12 wants to keep up in revenue and he thinks they should be concerned about keeping up financially (certainly a lot of his readers think that). He isn’t pushing a sale just to sell something. He can be right that such a sale is the only way to keep up even if you disagree with him that they should try to keep up.
“He gives almost no value to what full ownership brings,”
Which you’ve never explained beyond the obvious. Is it unreasonable for him to disagree with you on that?
“and more importantly what obligations/encumbrances that co-ownership could impose.”
The BTN and SECN seem to be doing just fine with these obligations/encumbrances. What’s so onerous about co-ownership?
“I’m not smart enough to understand all the moving pieces, but if another run at P16 is somewhere in the future an independent conf network would seem to give the most flexibility.”
All contracts are negotiable, so I’m not sure it buys them much flexibility. LHN was still an obstacle for them, so where was the benefit?
“That includes the possibility of an equity sale at that time in order to consummate the deal.”
An equity sale is a crapshoot. You can never know when it has peak value. There is an opportunity cost either way.
“Hidden very long term potential through ownership that Wilner (looking at short term bottom line) either misses, or discounts.”
Many people don’t see much future value in the P12N, not just him. People are predicting the decline of all conference networks, so why would the P12N be immune?
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Brian:
“LHN was still an obstacle for them, so where was the benefit?”
Future possible benefit. Non Fox affiliated allows a possible equity exchange for LHN becoming P12N/Texas until LHN contract expires. Post 2032 either Fox or espn, or both , or an alternate option, could become equity partners (assuming partnership would be desired by chancellors and presidents).
“Many people don’t see much future value in the P12N,”
What do they think of the OU/UT + 2 included P16N?
“so why would the P12N be immune?”
Not immune, but receiving 100% of after cost revenue, as opposed to 50(?)%. And not in the shadow of the Mouse, and it’s shareholders.
Live sports will remain attractive and DVR proof. Control of the rights to that product shouldn’t be underestimated or sold long term for short term gain. How long have the SEC and ACC committed theirs?
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ccrider55,
“Future possible benefit.”
Or future possible no benefit. A partial equity sale would be hedging their bets which is often good business practice.
“Non Fox affiliated allows a possible equity exchange for LHN becoming P12N/Texas until LHN contract expires.”
That would also be possible with Fox affiliation if the value is there. Fox and ESPN work together a lot. They could both own a chunk of the P12N.
“Post 2032 either Fox or espn, or both , or an alternate option, could become equity partners (assuming partnership would be desired by chancellors and presidents).”
Again, it doesn’t have to be either/or. The P12N could sell a share to an investment firm for that matter.
“What do they think of the OU/UT + 2 included P16N?”
That it won’t happen. And if it does, the TV model may well have changed to the point where the P16N is largely irrelevant. Everything may be OTT or PPV by then. Look how hard it was to get LHN on in TX. P16N (national) would be a tougher sell since most of the programming is non-Texas. The regional network might be more popular depending on what it can carry and how providers bundle the channels. But LHN only makes about $0.30 per subscriber. P12N charges $0.80 in the footprint.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/collegesports/2015/03/04/the-pac-12s-financial-future-what-a-directv-deal-would-be-worth/
And related to something you said earlier, Wilner estimated DTV would add about $2.9M per school per year if it paid that same $0.80 as the other big carriers. That’s not game changing, but it’s also not trivial since it’s a more than 10% bump in total payout.
“Not immune, but receiving 100% of after cost revenue, as opposed to 50(?)%. And not in the shadow of the Mouse, and it’s shareholders.”
But partners have helped greatly increase the revenue by providing leverage worth carriers. Getting on DTV could more than double what the P12N nets the schools but they don’t have the leverage to do it. Besides, they don’t have to sell 50%. They could sell a minority share.
“Live sports will remain attractive and DVR proof.”
Probably. But will they be streaming proof?
“Control of the rights to that product shouldn’t be underestimated or sold long term for short term gain.”
That’s one opinion. I’d counter that they also shouldn’t be overestimated and that sometimes the short term gain leads to long term gain. There’s no guarantee the network’s value will grow substantially (see LHN).
“How long have the SEC and ACC committed theirs?”
Until 2024 and 2036 respectively. The B10’s are committed until 2032. It’s not permanent.
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“That it won’t happen.”
Don’t think they addressed that. I was being rhetorical.
” And if it does, the TV model may well have changed to the point where the P16N is largely irrelevant.”
Doesn’t mater what mode of delivery, if conf net controls product of some value it will be relevant.
“Probably. But will they be streaming proof?”
Absolutely not. The conferences streams tons of events already…to authorized subscribers. Unless you’re talking about periscopeing live from a seat, or pirate links, control of the product is supreme.
I realize there are many holes in many of my ideas. Partially playing devil’s advocate.
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There is little doubt that Direct TV would give in to the Pac-12 Network IF Oklahoma and Texas were in the morning Conference. But that is not the case, nor are the odds of this happening that good. I lived in the Pac-12 footprint ( Mesa Arizona) tight next to Tempe ( hometown of ASU) and there was more interest in SEC and B10 then ASU sports. Personally speaking, ASU is my second favorite college school ( behind Penn State), but I am choosing the Steelers, Penguins, Yankees, Islanders and of course. Nittany Lions over the Sun Devils with Direct TV.
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http://www.theherdnow.com/fox-sports-executive-vp-michael-mulvihill-on-the-rapidly-changing-landscape-of-sports-television-broadcasting/
Colin Cowherd interviews a Fox Sports executive VP on a bunch of topics relevant to us here (cord cutting, RSNs, Fox/ESPN CFB game drafting, the future of TV, etc). It’s a 30 minute podcast.
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Thanks for posting this. It is a great interview with an extremely knowledgeable exec-wish I could edit out Cowherd. This is worth the 30 minutes.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sun-belt-announces-football-divisions-starting-in-2018-collaborative-replay-system/
The SB announced its divisions for 2018. The winners will meet in the CCG.
East: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Troy
West: Arkansas State, Louisiana, UL-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2007/08/08/program-pecking-order-bcs-teams-hierarchy
10 years ago, Stewart Mandel published his first BCS program pecking order list of 4 tiers of royalty.
Kings
Alabama
Florida
Florida State
Miami
Michigan
Nebraska
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Penn State
Tennessee*
Texas
USC
* Tennessee is the lone school in the group that caused any hesitation. The Vols would have been a no-brainer 10 years ago, but they have fallen off the map a bit lately. In the end, I figured those 100 fans in Montana still know “Rocky Top,” the checkered end zones and that Peyton Manning went there.
Barons
Auburn
Clemson
Colorado
Georgia
LSU*
Texas A&M
UCLA
Virginia Tech
Washington
Wisconsin
* While LSU is clearly a premier program right now, its big-picture tradition does not match those of the 13 kings. However, if the Tigers were to add another national title here in the next couple of years, they may well graduate to that group.
Knights
Arizona State
Arkansas
Boston College
California
Georgia Tech
Illinois
Iowa
Kansas State
Maryland
Michigan State
Missouri
N.C. State
Oklahoma State
Ole Miss
Oregon
Oregon State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Stanford
Syracuse*
South Carolina
Texas Tech
Virginia
West Virginia
Washington State
* In normal times, Syracuse would qualify as one of the barons, but they’re just so darn bad and so irrelevant right now.
Peasants
Arizona
Baylor
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Duke
Minnesota
Indiana
Iowa State
Kansas
Kentucky
Mississippi State
North Carolina
Northwestern
Rutgers*
South Florida*
Wake Forest
Vanderbilt
* Rutgers is another program that could be on its way up a tier, and South Florida is here by default because it’s essentially a start-up.
There is one school intentionally missing from the list, and that’s because I have no idea where to put it: Louisville. History-wise, the Cardinals are peasants, but the program has completely reinvented itself over the past decade and now gets mentioned with the kings and barons. For now, we’ll just say: TBD.
https://www.si.com/more-sports/2012/07/11/kings-barons-knights-peasants-mailbag#
5 years later he updated it.
Changes:
Baron -> King: LSU
King -> Baron: TN
Knight -> Baron: OR, WV
Baron -> Knight: CO, UW
New Knights: Boise, BYU, TCU, Utah
Knight -> Peasant: WSU
New Peasants: UL, Temple
Well, his next update is due out tomorrow. So let’s speculate. Who should move up and who should move down?
Kings:
This list is pretty stable, but maybe a team like Miami is vulnerable since it has no history before the 80s. Teams like ND, NE and UT haven’t done a lot lately but they have tons of history to lean on.
Clemson might be moving up to the King level after the past few seasons, but I don’t think they’ve done enough yet.
Barons:
Is WV at risk? I think Auburn could drop post-Cam.
Stanford and UL have sustained success lately. What about MSU’s run under Dantonio elevating them? Baylor might have moved up but I can’t believe they will with this scandal hanging over them. OkSU might be due for a bump, too.
Knights:
I think PU and IL need to drop. BC, Cal, OrSU and Syracuse too.
Baylor, UL and NW could all move up potentially.
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Though properly speaking his “peasants” should be Gentry, and the Go5 schools be included en masse as the peasantry.
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I think UW and WSU might move back up to where they were before.
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They might move up next time. That would give them 5 more years to sustain success. UW has only had 1 strong year under Petersen. WSU only has 2 under the pirate.
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Here’s the new Mandel ranking of programs Brian referenced above.
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/college-football-program-pecking-order-3-0-dividing-all-66-bcs-teams-into-four-tier-hierarchy-052517
“In conclusion, if we go back and compare this list to the original we get a sense just how much — or how little — college football’s perceived hierarchy changes in the span of a decade. Here’s how it breaks down.
•Eleven of the 13 Kings remained the same, with LSU and Clemson supplanting Tennessee and Nebraska.
•There was more movement in and out of the Barons, with just six originals among the current 11. Oregon, Michigan State and Stanford all ascended from Knights.
•It’s really hard to escape the realm of peasantry. Baylor, Northwestern and North Carolina were the only ones to do it.
•All told, 16 of the 66 BCS-conference schools circa 2007 — just less than a quarter — changed tiers over the span of 10 years.
Worth noting: Louisville was the most ascendant program of all, going from unranked (apparently out of indecision) in 2007 to Peasants in 2012 to Knights in 2017.”
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My predictions were fairly obvious and pretty accurate. I’m surprised Cal, IL and SU stayed as Knights. IL is 20-41 over the past 5 years. SU is 26-36. Cal is 22-39.
Teams in reverse order of W% over the past 5 seasons (I know prestige isn’t just W/L):
KU, PU, ISU, UVA, IL, CO, UK, WF, Cal, IN, BC, UMD, OrSU, WSU, AR, RU, Vandy
That’s everyone below 0.500. All are Peasants except for UVA, IL, CO, Cal and UMD. The other peasants are AZ, Duke, MN and MsSU (0.554, 0.569, 0.569 and 0.615 respectively).
I don’t see sufficient success to keep those 5 schools as Knights. They all had runs in the 90s or early 00s when Mandel was starting to focus on CFB, but a current recruit wouldn’t remember any of it. He dropped NE for that reason but left these teams elevated.
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Mandel’s ranking is pretty fair.
Worth noting that the bottom 2 tiers should be much more “what have you done for me lately” than the top 2 tiers.
Whereas a school can have a good 10-15 year period and move from the 4th tier to the 3rd tier (i.e. Northwestern) or vice-versa Boston College.
I also agree with you on IL/SU; the reality of college football is, if you have a rough 10-15 year period and aren’t in the top 2 tiers; then you’ll probably be in the 4th.
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Alan from Baton Rouge,
•Eleven of the 13 Kings remained the same, with LSU and Clemson supplanting Tennessee and Nebraska.
I wonder how secure LSU’s place is going forward. They had a great run from 2001-2013 averaging 10.4 wins per season, but they’ve gone 25-12 since then. If Orgeron doesn’t beat AL a few times and start LSU winning 10 games again soon, they’ll basically be where NE is now.
•There was more movement in and out of the Barons, with just six originals among the current 11. Oregon, Michigan State and Stanford all ascended from Knights.
Likewise, OR needs to get back to their winning ways. They’ve gone 13-12 the past 2 seasons. That’s okay if it’s just a blip, but if extends to 5+ years it will hurt them.
Worth noting: Louisville was the most ascendant program of all, going from unranked (apparently out of indecision) in 2007 to Peasants in 2012 to Knights in 2017.”
That’s unfair. Mandel was unsure where to put them in 2007 so he left them off his list entirely when all the other Big Eats teams were included. They’ve really gone from Peasant to Knight in 10 years, a 1 level bump like multiple schools attained.
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Brian – keep in mind that over the last two seasons, LSU had to cancel two sure wins due to weather. Add those two to the total and that’s 9 wins a season during a down time. With the drama of a coaching change and excruiatingly close losses last season (last possession v. Wisconsin; last play at Auburn and v. Florida; and tied with Bama with six minutes left in the 4Q), I think LSU is doing better than most.
That being said, I can’t wait until Nick Saban retires! There is no way Bama keeps up this kind of run without him.
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If it wasn’t for AL, LSU would look a lot better. But thanks to Saban, LSU rarely wins their own division so they also get almost no SEC titles. I’m not saying LSU can’t or won’t bounce back, but they’re trending the wrong way at the moment and 5 more years of that could put them in a precarious place for king status. That’s all. Post-Saban, LSU could go on a tear and cement their king status for a long time.
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ESPN releases most of its schedule for the first three weeks of the season.
http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2017/05/marquee-games-every-conference-bolster-espns-early-season-college-football-schedule/
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B10 games pre-selected by ABC/ESPN/…
Week 1 Schedule
Date Time (ET) Game Network
Thu, Aug. 31 8 p.m. Ohio State at Indiana ESPN
Fri, Sept. 1 9 p.m. Utah State at Wisconsin ESPN
Sat, Sept. 2 Noon Akron at Penn State ABC
Bowling Green at Michigan State ESPNU
3:30 p.m. Michigan vs. Florida from Arlington, Texas ABC
Week 2 Schedule
Sat, Sept. 9 Noon Cincinnati at Michigan ABC or ESPN
Iowa at Iowa State ESPN or ESPN2
Northwestern at Duke ESPNU
3:30 p.m. Pittsburgh at Penn State ABC
Indiana at Virginia ACC Network Extra
7:30 p.m. Oklahoma at Ohio State ABC
Week 3 Schedule
Fri, Sept. 15 7 p.m. Illinois at South Florida ESPN
Sat, Sept. 16 3:30 p.m. Wisconsin at BYU ABC or ESPN
North Texas at Iowa ESPN2
Week 4 and Beyond
Oct. 14 TBD Northwestern at Maryland TBD
Oct. 28 TBD Michigan State at Northwestern TBD
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http://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
Summer camp season is approaching for CFB, so I wanted to look at where schools are in recruiting right now. Camps are when a lot of top programs offer players, so more commitments and flips will start to happen. Since an early signing period will exist in December in the future, I thought it might be useful to look at where teams stand throughout the year.
1. Miami – 17
2. OSU – 10
3. PSU – 13
4. LSU – 16
5. ND – 11
6. NE – 11
7. FSU – 9
8. TN – 11
9. Clemson – 9
10. MI – 9
Rest of B10:
16. NW – 13
17. MN – 13
22. WI – 10
31. UMD – 6
40. MSU – 5
41. IA – 6
58. IN – 4
69. RU – 3
73. IL – 2
95. PU – 1
Obviously a lot will change as classes fill up (63. AL – 2 for example) and the top players make decisions.
Sorted by average ranking per player:
1. Ohio State – 96.34
2. USC – 95.07
3. Clemson – 93.52
4. Alabama – 92.86
5. Miami – 92.22
6. Washington
7. Florida State
8. Penn State – 91.65
9. Texas
10. North Carolina
Rest of B10:
13. MI – 90.27
22. NE – 88.36
27. UMD – 87.75
28. MSU – 87.29
39. WI – 85.18
42. MN – 85.00
43. NW – 84.93
48. IA – 84. 65
61. IL – 83.35
65. IN – 83.26
77. RU – 81.47
86. PU – 80.00
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/north-carolina-gives-coach-larry-fedora-contract-extension-through-2022/
UNC has extended Larry Fedora through 2022. Any chance this is designed to give him job security through the sanctions the NCAA is likely to hand down this fall?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/05/25/north-carolina-challenges-ncaa-findings-response-notice-allegations/102146626/
On a related note, UNC is still fighting the charges claiming it’s purely an academic issue and thus not under NCAA jurisdiction.
In a response made public Thursday to the NCAA’s most recent Notice of Allegations, North Carolina challenges the most serious and potentially damaging allegation, arguing that “inadequate academic oversight unrelated to the Department of Athletics” doesn’t constitute an issue within the NCAA’s jurisdiction.
Further, the school argues that the case should not be characterized as an “extra benefit” situation because the courses were available to all students and that athletes were not treated differently from others with regard to how the courses were administered. North Carolina also accuses the NCAA’s enforcement staff of changing its theory multiple times for how the facts of the case could be shoehorned into violations of extra benefit rules.
“The issues concerning the Courses are academic in nature, concern academic administration and lie beyond the reach of the bylaws belatedly invoked by the Staff,” the response states.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/05/25/espn-releases-week-1-college-football-schedule-and-prime-time-games/102145150/
ABC/ESPN has released their schedule for Week 1 plus primetime games in weeks 2 and 3. 5 B10 teams will be shown in the opening week plus the OSU vs OU game in week 2.
WEEK 1
Thursday, Aug. 31
Ohio State at Indiana, 8 p.m. (ESPN)
Friday, Sept. 1
Utah State at Wisconsin, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Saturday, Sept. 2
Akron at Penn State, noon (ABC)
Kent State at Clemson, noon (ESPN)
N.C. State vs. South Carolina (in Charlotte), 3 p.m. (ESPN)
Florida vs. Michigan (in Arlington, Texas), 3:30 p.m. (ABC)
Appalachian State at Georgia, 6:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Alabama vs. Florida State (in Atlanta), 8 p.m. (ABC)
Brigham Young vs. LSU (in Houston), 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Sunday, Sept. 3
South Carolina State at Southern, 2:30 p.m. (ESPN2)
Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia (in Landover, Md.), 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
Monday, Sept. 4
Georgia Tech vs. Tennessee (in Atlanta), 8 p.m. (ESPN)
WEEK 2
Saturday, Sept. 9
Oklahoma at Ohio State, 7:30 p.m. (ABC)
WEEK 3
Saturday, Sept. 16
Miami (Fla.) at Florida State, 8 p.m. (ABC)
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The complete first 3 weeks of the Big Ten schedule, times and networks will be announced on 5/31 as well as kickoff times for homecoming games. Night games outside of the first 3 weeks will be selected on a more typical 12 day window beyond that. Additionally it appears as one concession for granting more night games, any Big Ten controlled game on ABC (and presumably Fox) in prime-time will kickoff at 7:30 eastern.
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An article on why Rio should not have bid on the Olympics. Obviously, LA is in much better shape since they have facilities.
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/rios-example-no-city-bid-host-olympics-183332226.html
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That’s the story of every Olympics for the past 40+ years. Only the US hosts have earned money on their Olympics because the infrastructure (stadiums/hotels/venues/roads/etc.) don’t need much upgrading or have other uses before/after the Olympics.
London was a pretty good example of how to manage a relatively “low cost” Olympics with much of the infrastructure temporary and much cheaper to put together/dismantle after…
On the other hand you have Sochi or Rio where massive sums are spent with very little in terms of real economic gains for the public.
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It was really bad in Rio. The city was great and there were no security issues at all.
The facilities were another issue. The Olympic village was a group of apartment buildings. Team USA shared a building with New Zealand, as I recall. No one was allowed to drink the water, or even use it to brush teeth. The lobby of the Team USA apartment building had unlimited bottled water, which was used for hand washing, etc.
One fun thing was that no one was allowed to flush anything down the toilets. They had red bags to collect materials that otherwise would have been flushed.
I can’t imagine what has happened to those buildings in the past 10 months or so.
LA, London, Tokyo, etc., would be infinitely better.
I was in Athens a few years after the 2004 Olympics. Most of the facilities were vacant and unused..What a shame.
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Yeah, the real problem is just that very few countries have sports teams and tourism levels that necessitate Olympic style infrastructure on a long-term basis.
Of course, US cities do with our multi-billion-dollar sports teams and massive hotel room count in every major city; LA, London, Paris, Frankfurt/Berlin do as well, but beyond that? Very few countries/cities have that.
Even China and Russia generally don’t have a need for that kind of infrastructure; look at how underused China’s 2008 venues have been for a long period of time.
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I suspect that Paris gets the 2024 Olympics. Anyone remember how bad Obama looked begging for a Chicago Olympics? Not to mention that the fact that President Trump is more unpopular with the global organization types then Obama was ( I happen to support President Trump but it is what it is). Not to mention the IOC is not exactly Pro-American, and you see the odds of LA winning are not good. To be fair, i am not an Olympics fan ( except hockey and certain winter sports), and if I am alive in 2024 and my TV choice is the Olympics or MLB Extra Innings (especially the Yankees), baseball wins every every time.
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Whether LA gets it or not will probably have to do more with the fact that a US Olympics would be incredibly profitable for everyone involved (and especially the IOC’s top media contract owner: NBC).
Everything’s pointing to a double vote right now: Paris in 2024 and LA in 2028; we’ll see if that still holds.
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I haven’t looked at the specific numbers, but I think a single US Olympics would be so profitable for NBC that it would probably pay for an entire Olympics cycle (2 Summer/2 Winter) alone.
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You like many other Yankees fans are getting their fix from broader television and other platform options. The Yankees organization is getting a lot of crap from media types for ticket pricing (and distribution) practices that might be keeping their attendance down at YS3 despite a bit of a resurgence and a new star (Aaron Judge). Supposedly the lower revenue from ticket sales is making the bondholders for YS 3 a bit nervous as well.
http://deadspin.com/the-yankees-are-struggling-to-put-butts-in-seats-1795556615 (pardon the sourcse
I still think Yankees- Nittany Lions is big thing, much like Braves-Crimson Tide-LeBron era Heat, though much less bandwagon. Actually have seen a lot of Yankee-Nittany Lion bumper/backwindow salutes on the roads near Great Lakes Naval Center and Six Flags up in Lake County IL
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There are a lot of tickets in Yankee Stadium that cost well north of $250 per game. Some go to $500 for one game. Not a lot of people are about to plunk down $700 or $800 for two tickets to a baseball game.
I know a guy who was one of the original limited partners when Steinbrenner bought the Yankees in 1973. (And there was nothing more limited than a limited partner of George). His interest in the Yankees is pushing $100,000,000 and he owns several minor league teams. He gave up his season tickets in the new stadium, since he did not think that the seats are worth it – and he is an owner.
I live in North Jersey and have never seen any Penn State Yankees connection. Maybe that is more evident in the City.
The Yankees and Rutgers have a formal relationship. Hopefully the Yankees do not terminate it since they are so embarrassed by RU.
http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2016/09/how_a_rutgers-yankees_partnership_led_to_big_ten_b.html
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NCAA updates:
W Lax
UMD beat PSU in the semifinals. They’ll face BC in the final and be a big favorite.
M golf
Darkness came before round 1 was fully finished,
1. Vandy -8
5t. IL -3
26t. PU +10
29. PSU +13
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Woo hoo. Both OSU and UMD won their men’s lacrosse semifinals so the B10 is guaranteed another national title.
Men’s golf
After 2 rounds (almost everyone’s done):
1. UNLV -14
3. IL -11
…
27. PSU +17
28. PU +18
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UMD finished a perfect season by winning the W LAX title. Tomorrow they’ll try to be the third school to sweep the M and W LAX titles in the same year (1994 Princeton, 2016 UNC).
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UMD ends their futility streak and finally wins the M LAX title again. Their previous title was in 1975 and they’ve been to something like 20 final fours since then.
M Golf update:
The top 15 teams after 3 rounds advance to the final round of stroke play today.
About halfway through the final round:
1. Vandy -21
2. IL – 12
…
7t. UVA/Baylor -3
9. LSU -1
PSU and PU were cut.
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IL advances to match play as the #3 team. They’ll face USC (then the winner of OU/Baylor if they advance).
Meanwhile, the B10 added individual titles in women’s singles (MI) and women’s doubles (OSU). Those are the first women’s tennis titles of any kind for either program.
That helps make up for OSU’s men’s and women’s tennis teams both losing in the final four as well as the men’s lacrosse team losing the final.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/big-ten-adding-rutgers-maryland-major-problem-cable-dies.html
The B10 adding RU and UMD may prove to be problematic when the cable model collapses.
How the teams fared has been irrelevant. The additions were never about the competition. It was all about money. Adding Maryland and Rutgers was a cynical ploy to add the large and growing New York and D.C. television markets to the Big Ten’s “conference footprint.”
…
Adding Rutgers and Maryland is a windfall if the cable model stays intact. As we’ve learned from the countless ESPN in decline pieces, that model is crumbling. Subscribers are leaving in a steady trickle. Technological innovation – fast, reliable Internet from another source – could break the dam.
…
We’ve reached the point where outrageous live sports rights figures will diminish. It’s hard to see ESPN or FOX shelling out stupid money for college football today, much less in five or six years. The Big Ten negotiating a shorter TV deal to hasten the next round of negotiations no longer looks like a masterstroke.
A Big Ten Network reliant on active subscribers and ad revenue may not be viable in its present form. The network’s best bet would be bundling with Fox News (median age viewer: 68) for the future, which may not be a long-term strategy.
Cable’s death carries uncertainty. There’s no precise gauge of what will happen. What I can predict is there will be a profound shift toward quality of games vs. volume of games.
Teams will need to fill their stadiums to make money. Having two of the seven home games be against live opponents won’t be a viable business strategy. Non-conference scheduling will have to be better. So will conference scheduling.
Whatever outlet is streaming college football games in the 2020s will not want the bloated buffet of games. The present model favors the conferences. ESPN and FOX need live sports content to get cable providers to carry multiple networks. That changes if you’re dealing with Apple or Amazon.
We could see a model where the ten best Big Ten football games per season are on Amazon Prime. The Big Ten is streaming the rest of its football package and almost all of regular season college basketball on its own.
Cable subscribers no longer matter in that scenario. Fans who watch do, the very fans the Big Ten blithely disregarded. Rutgers and Maryland become dead weight.
Those two schools dilute the product. They drag on attendance when they show up to Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State. They drag on television revenue. Mich/OSU/PSU are playing Maryland and Rutgers vs. sellable games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa. They are also two extra mouths to feed when it comes to distributing the diminished revenue Mich/OSU/PSU are producing.
Obviously this is just one blogger’s opinion.
1. Outrageous is in the eye of the beholder. I believe the networks are still making a lot of money showing sports so the prices aren’t outrageous.
2. I could see pressure for quality over quantity, but that already exists to some degree (CBS deal with SEC for example).
3. Teams have been balancing attendance versus SOS for years. That’s nothing new.
4. I fail to see why streamers wouldn’t want a large quantity of games. As long as enough people will pay to watch it, it’s worth having it in their inventory. Not every game has to be OSU/MI.
5. I fully understand his lack of excitement about UMD and RU, but they’re no worse than PU and IL in the West.
6. The kings in the East already play 1.67 games per year against NE/WI/IA with the parity-based schedule. That’s in addition to playing each other and MSU every season. That’s 4.67 really big games per team or 11 big games combined (5 vs West, 3 in round robin, 3 vs MSU) and that ignores any big games against NW or MN or ….
7. He completely ignores the need for improved demographics to provide students for the B10 schools in the future. They also provide great athletic recruiting grounds.
8. He also ignores the large number of B10 alumni already on the east coast.
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He also does not understand what a sports conference actually is, that like minded universities band together. Maryland and Rutgers are classic Big Ten schools and infinitely better choices than Cincinnati and Louisville.
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If Rutgers had an athletic heritage remotely close to Syracuse’s, no one would dispute its B1G-worthiness.
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I’m not even sure his basic math really works; “Pay TV subscribers #s” are certainly facing a long-term decline, but that doesn’t mean that we’re going to go from Blockbuster to Netflix in the TV space.
Too many people don’t understand that there’ll be a long-term shift but Pay TV will still probably command at least 50m subscribers in any scenario.
Does that mean conference networks will likely fall below 40m or so in subscribers? Yes.
But a lot of the lost revenue will be replaced through digital initiatives and otherwise. Live sports still commands quality viewer numbers even if the bundle is experience erosion.
Look at how all the random bowl games command good viewership numbers. Rutgers/Maryland still have plenty of value in terms of just TV value in the medium/long-term and that’s before you even get to the fact that they’re in states near the top of the Big Ten’s list in terms of demographics and Pay TV sub rates.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/19483825/washington-huskies-win-ncaa-women-rowing-title-pac-12-first-500-titles
The conference of champions strikes again. UW won the rowing title to give the P12 500 team titles in history. Next is the B10 with 307 (we won once since the article was written) and the SEC with 220. Considering that the B10 has generally been 2 teams larger and formed much earlier, that a huge lead.
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I didn’t realize how close Stanford is to passing UCLA. From a couple days ago:
https://www.google.com/amp/www.ruleoftree.com/platform/amp/2016/5/26/11776440/stanford-wins-109th-ncaa-title-closes-in-on-ucla-for-most-titles
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They largely built their numbers on west coast/Olympic sports that the rest of the country wasn’t playing much for a long time.
Sports where they have 10+ titles:
UCLA (67) – M Volleyball – 19, M Tennis – 16, M Basketball – 11, Softball – 11, M Water Polo – 10
Stanford (35) – W Tennis – 18, M Tennis – 17
USC (59) – M Outdoor Track & Field – 26, M Tennis – 21, Baseball – 12
Sports with 5-9 titles:
UCLA (21) – M OT&F – 8, W WP – 7, W Gymnastics – 6
Stanford (48) – W Swimming – 9, M Swimming – 8, M Golf – 8, W VB – 7, W WP – 6, M Gym – 5, W Cross Country – 5
USC (18) – M Swim – 9, M WP – 9
Total:
UCLA – 88
Stanford – 83
USC – 77
Obviously USC also has a bunch of CFB titles, but this is just NCAA titles.
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An update on UNC from a Duke blogger, who I think is correct. Even if this is not technically within the specific gambit of the NCAA, UNC was involved in a major academic scandal in order to keep athletes eligible.
http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2017/5/26/15696112/uncs-reaction-to-the-ncaa-go-to-heel-letter-of-allegations
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Their hearing should be in August, then another 90 days for inevitable appeal, then the time to consider that appeal. We might know something by 1/1. Then UNC has to decide whether or not to go to court.
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The basball tournament is set.
http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-05-29/2017-college-world-series-ncaa-division-i-baseball-championship
The Southeastern Conference (SEC) leads the way with eight teams selected. Both the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and Big 12 Conference have seven participants in the field. The Big Ten Conference ties a conference record with five, while the Pac-12 Conference has four in the field. The American Athletic Conference (AAC) has three and the Big East Conference, Big West Conference, Conference USA, Missouri Valley Conference and Southland Conference all have two teams each.
The top 8 national seeds are:
1. Oregon State
2. North Carolina
3. Florida
4. LSU
5. Texas Tech
6. TCU
7. Louisville
8. Stanford
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The Terps get in, seeded #3 at the Winston-Salem subregional against #2 West Virginia. Also in are host Wake Forest and 23-23 UMBC.
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B10 teams in:
None are national seeds, these are their regional seeds:
2. IN (UK is host)
2. NE (#1 OrSU)
3. MI (#2 UNC)
3. UMD (WF)
4. IA (UH)
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/05/30/auburn-sec-east-west-divisions-realignment
Andy Staples discusses SEC divisional realignment. This started with Pat Dye saying Auburn and Missouri should swap divisions. AU’s AD was in support of it, probably because it’s good for AU (renew old rivalries, easier division, access to bigger states) and bad for AL (can’t lock TN and AU).
Staples brings up some possible ideas:
1. Maybe this is the opening salvo that leads to 9 SEC games.
2. Maybe this is paving the way for changes if there is major realignment in the 2020s when all the TV deals renew.
3. Maybe both AL and AU should go East for MO and Vandy (VU is west of AU). Lock AL/LSU, AU/MsSU.
What should those crossovers be in case 3? Here’s my proposal assuming Staples’ 2 choices remain:
AL/LSU
AU/MsSU
UF/AR
UGA/MS
SC/TAMU
TN/VU
UK/MO
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Brian – if Alabama and Auburn moved to the East with Vandy and Mizzou moving to the West, the desire/need for permanent cross-division rivals would cease to exist. It currently exists to accommodate Bama/Tennessee and Auburn/UGA. If Vandy and Tennessee insist on playing annually, the SEC should adopt the B1G rule for Indiana/Purdue.
I’d much rather see a 9 game conference schedule with no permanent cross-division rivals, just like y’all.
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If they impose the rule for 2 games now (AL/TN and AU/UGA), why would they drop it for 2 games later (TN/VU and AL/LSU)? AU/MsSU also has a long history.
I was assuming they’d stay with the current schedule format for that comment, obviously. I think the 4 schools with locked ACC rivals will prevent the move to 9 games anytime soon. It’ll take expansion to 16+ or an addition of a 13th game to make that change.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/auburn-ad-jay-jacobs-makes-it-clear-he-wants-the-tigers-in-the-sec-east/
Apparently AU is serious about this.
It’s not just speculation anymore: Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs wants the Tigers moved to the SEC East, and he’s going to bring it up during the SEC’s spring meetings this week.
“It makes more sense for Auburn from the standpoint of the demographics of our students, not our student-athletes,” Jacobs told Brandon Marcello of 247Sports. “Six or eight years ago, I looked at all the demographics. Most of all our students come from Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, a few from Mississippi, very few from Louisiana. Since we went to the national championship twice, we’ve got more geographical students from all over the place, but still, the majority of our students come from the southeast.”
…
As for how serious Jacobs is about the move, he also said on Wednesday that he’d actually be willing to move the date of the annual Iron Bowl with Alabama if needed in order to accommodate the move, but he would also want to make sure Auburn keeps its annual rivalry game.
This would likely necessitate the SEC changing its permanent cross-division rivalries, meaning the Tide would have to give up their annual showdown with the Vols. (Auburn’s rival is Georgia, which it would play in the new SEC East.)
Jacobs also believes there’s a realistic chance that the SEC will listen and agree with the prospective move.
“My sense of it, and I feel I’ve got a pretty good sense of it, everybody is interested in what is going to make us all very competitive,” Jacobs said. “I don’t really think other ADs think about it one way or the other which [division] I’m in. What fills up our stadiums on Saturday [is important], and Missouri playing Florida, does that help fill up Florida’s stadium with those fans having to travel so far? It’s not just football: it’s volleyball, it’s tennis, it’s everything we do.”
SEC commissioner Greg Sankey does not think there will be any long discussion of the topic — at least this year. “I’ve talked to Jay,” Sankey said. “It’s still not an agenda item.”
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/gators-vols-early-sec-on-cbs-choice-2017-schedule-features-three-doubleheaders/
CBS released their CFB schedule, sort of. Only 7 games are set but the times for the rest are locked in. All games are at 3:30pm unless otherwise noted.
9/9 TCU @ AR
9/16 TN @ UF
9/23 SEC Game of the Week
9/30 SEC GotW
10/7 SEC GotW
10/14 SEC GotW
10/21 SEC GotW
10/28 UGA vs UF
11/4 3:30/8pm SEC doubleheader
11/11 12/3:30pm SEC doubleheader
11/18 12/3:30pm SEC doubleheader
11/24 (Friday) MO @ AR
11/25 SEC GotW
12/2 SECCG – 4pm
12/9 Army vs Navy – 3pm
12/29 (Friday) Sun Bowl – 3pm
I’m a little surprised they don’t have more games pre-determined. You know they’ll have multiple AL games, for example.
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Brian – the CBS schedule goes through the first three weeks of the season. This type of schedule is nothing new for CBS. Naming the cocktail party and the black Friday game in advance is also normal. The primetime 11/4 game will most likely be LSU at Alabama.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_bef94da6-4566-11e7-88ba-6f1bfb54945c.html
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/053117aab.html
Big Ten releases early schedule of games. A lot of games picked up by FOX/FS1. I think you’ll see a lot less 11 am (CT)/noon (ET) kickoffs now since there will be fewer games available for ABC/ESPN
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wscsuperfan,
“A lot of games picked up by FOX/FS1.”
They did pay to get half of the games. ABC/ESPN will end up with the same number.
“I think you’ll see a lot less 11 am (CT)/noon (ET) kickoffs now since there will be fewer games available for ABC/ESPN”
By my count there are 13 of them listed. 8 are homecoming games which makes a lot of sense. 4 are early season OOC games against G5 teams, also logical noon games. The last is The Game which has been a noon game almost every year lately.
Remember that this release only includes the times for the first 3 weeks, all homecoming games plus a few select games. Start times for the other games will be decided closer to the day of the games. That means there will be more noon games on the schedule.
Is this really a change from previous years? 2 of those noon starts are on Fox channels and the networks for the 8 HC games haven’t been determined. BTN also hasn’t released any scheduling yet. Last year the B10 had 45 noon games over 13 weeks (3.5 per week). There were more in September (all those OOC games to show) and in late November and fewer in early October based on the weather presumably. I think we’ll see very similar numbers this year.
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I was a little surprised to see PSU @ OSU on 10/28 being at 3:30pm. That’s always a night game when OSU has to go to PSU, so how come PSU gets the benefit of a 3:30 game on the road?
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Fox drafted the week and presumably wants to evening window open for a potential World Series game.
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*to keep the evening window
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I’m curious if this will be the pattern going forward since OSU/PSU has been an October game almost every season since 1993 (twice on 9/23, 4 times in November, 18 times in October). It’s been the final Saturday in October 10 times. I’d love to get to avoid a whiteout night game at PSU for a change.
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It is 9/29 in 2018 and 11/23 in 2019. Assuming both programs stay on their current trajectories, this seems like more of an anomaly than anything.
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http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/05/31/big-ten-strikes-out-with-ohio-state-penn-state-start-time-on-fox-thanks-to-world-series/
Here’s an article about how this is bad for the B10. It’s not a huge deal, but it’s one price the B10 pays for signing with Fox.
I wonder if they will try to avoid putting games in late October/early November in future schedules.
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The trade-off beyond the obvious financial benefit is that the conference had 5 ESPNews games in the first 3 weeks last year versus none this year. Splitting the rights may lead to some sacrifices i.e. Fox having World Series obligations, but it should make it up on the back-end for the conference as a whole with increased exposure on more viewed networks i.e. games that would’ve been on ESPNews are ending up on either FS1 or ESPN/2.
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One large unknown is what impact this new deal will have on how and how much ESPN talks about the B10. How much coverage (especially in the week before the game) will games like OSU/OU, OSU/PSU and OSU/MI get now that Fox has them? Since they split 3 conferences now, will there be significant cross-promotion (both ways)?
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https://www.cnet.com/news/intel-major-league-baseball-mlb-oculus-vr-virtual-reality/
The NBA just finished streaming 25 games in VR and now Intel and MLB have signed a deal to stream a weekly game in VR.
Intel and MLB are betting big that stat-obsessed geeks will want to watch baseball in VR, which has evolved from a hobbyist pipe dream to arguably Silicon Valley’s most-hyped new technology. Analysts predict that VR revenues will climb to $75 billion by 2021, more than 10 times the projection for 2017.
According to a recent survey of 500 baseball fans that Intel conducted with Turnkey Intelligence, 71 percent of them would be interested in watching an MLB game in VR if they couldn’t see it in person.
MLB is the second pro-sports league to air weekly games in VR, joining the NBA, which recently finished up the streaming of 25 games with NextVR.
Intel’s VR broadcast of big-league baseball games also comes after MLB announced two weeks ago the launch of a virtual reality upgrade to its popular At-Bat streaming app for Google Daydream headsets. Intel is also the latest tech company livestreaming MLB games, joining Twitter on Tuesday nights and Facebook on Fridays.
Is VR really the next big thing, or is this 3D TV all over again? How long until we watch CFB games in VR from the QB’s (or MLB’s) POV?
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VR for sports right now feels like 3D TV for sports a few years ago (when ESPN and others were talking big about it). It’s still a concept way before its time.
I mean that Intel survey is nowhere near enough to convince me that the concept is significantly different enough to really change things. VR is still sort of a clunky experience given that you’re sort of bound to a spot in a general sense, and most won’t want to spend long periods of time (3 hour sports games) in that kind of setting.
Just like with 3D TV; it feels like the hype has gotten ahead of what consumers are willing to go for…
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/2018-college-football-hall-of-fame-ballot-released-ranking-the-candidates
Ranking the 2018 CFB HoF candidates. Who should be a lock, who should get in eventually, who is borderline, etc.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/06/01/fix-power-five-conference-divisions
How to fix the divisions for each P5 conference.
ACC – swap UVA and FSU
Atlantic / Coastal (locked rivals)
Clemson / Florida State
NC State / North Carolina
Wake Forest / Duke
Syracuse / Pittsburgh
Virginia / Virginia Tech
Louisville / Georgia Tech
Boston College / Miami
B10 – drop divisions
Outside of returning to divisions drawn solely to create competitive balance with no regard for geography, the Big Ten’s best option is to do away with divisions altogether and press for a change to NCAA rules to allow it to still host a conference title game. The majority of the league’s rivalries could be protected with three designated annual matchups, as SBNation has outlined, leaving six rotating conference games to ensure each team faces one another at least every other year.
B12 – no change
P12 – swap Utah and Stanford
The biggest obstacle here is how to schedule the four California schools. All four play each other each year, which means that with the current division setup, each plays one of the others as a divisional opponent (Cal vs. Stanford, UCLA vs. USC) and the remaining two as protected crossover games. If Stanford moves to the South Division, that would require Cal to play three protected crossovers, leaving only one conference game left to rotate among the three other teams in the South. That’s not a terrible outcome; few tears will be shed over such premier matchups as Cal vs. Colorado, Cal vs. Arizona or Cal vs. Arizona State being played only once every three years. Or if there’s robust resistance to that outcome, perhaps Cal vs. Stanford could be protected as an annual game with Cal vs. USC and Cal vs. UCLA being played three out of every five years.
SEC – swap AL and AU for MO and Vandy
West / East (locked rivals)
LSU / Alabama
Mississippi State / Auburn
Missouri / Kentucky
Vanderbilt / Tennessee
Ole Miss / Georgia
Texas A&M / South Carolina
Arkansas / Florida
—
I think the answer for the B10 is the answer for everyone. Drop divisions, lock 3 games (or more) and rotate the rest, and have the top 2 play in the CCG.
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http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/6/15/11923938/big-ten-schedule-divisions-realignment-rivalries
The SBN article he linked to listed the B10’s locked rivalries. Here are their suggestions:
IL – NW, OSU, PU
IN – NW, PU, RU
IA – MN, NE, WI
UMD – NW, PSU, RU
MI – MN, MSU, OSU
MSU – MI, NE, PSU
MN – IA, MI, WI
NE – IA, MSU, WI
NW – IL, IN, UMD
OSU – IL, MI, PSU
PSU – UMD, MSU, OSU
PU – IL, IN, RU
RU – IN, UMD, PU
WI – IA, MN, NE
Those aren’t terrible by any means, but they wouldn’t quite be my choices either. I’d try to maintain actual rivalries (balanced or not), then play neighbors. The 6 rotating games will maintain balance.
IL – NW, OSU, PU
IN – MSU, NW, PU
IA – MN, NE, WI
UMD – PSU, PU, RU
MI – MN, MSU, OSU
MSU – IN, MI, NE
MN – IA, MI, WI
NE – IA, MSU, WI
NW – IL, IN, RU
OSU – IL, MI, PSU
PSU – UMD, RU, OSU
PU – IL, IN, UMD
RU – UMD, NW, PSU
WI – IA, MN, NE
Changes in bold. I replaced IN/RU, MSU/PSU, NW/UMD and PU/RU with IN/MSU, PSU/RU, NW/RU and UMD/PU.
I guess you could try to do parity-based scheduling with the remaining teams but that would be tough.
If you went to 5 locked games you could maintain other B10 priorities like getting the kings into NYC and DC more often to build the markets. Everyone could have a locked king, too.
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UVa will never drop its locked game with UNC. It’s one of the South’s oldest football rivalries, dating back to the late 19th century, and was a season-ending game into the early years of the ACC (1957). From a Tar Heel perspective, it may not be as big a rivalry as State or Duke, but the Cavs certainly don’t feel the same way.
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http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/6/16/11935718/ncaa-conferences-divisions-scheduling
SBN’s plan was to scrap divisions for everyone. They had the ACC lock 4 games each so that the NC schools could all play plus keep an outside rivalry (UNC/UVA, for example).
As for swapping teams, how about swapping FSU and Miami? That puts Miami with BC and SU (old Big East foes) while the FSU game stays locked. It splits FSU and Clemson but with only a small change in average football power. The ACC keeps a FL team in each division and has the chance for a Miami/FSU or Clemson/FSU CCG.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/06/02/penn-state-jail-sentence-child-endangerment-graham-spanier-tim-curley-gary-schultz/102426832/
Appeals are inevitable, but former PSU administrators Curley, Schultz and Spanier all got jail time today.
All three were convicted of child endangerment. Schultz, the former university vice president, could serve a minimum of two months in jail and a maximum of 23 months. Curley, the former university athletic director, could serve a minimum of three months in jail and maximum of 23 months. And Spanier, the former university president, could serve a minimum of two months and a maximum of 12 months. All three are also poised to have house arrest after the jail time.
…
“I deeply regret I didn’t intervene more forcefully,” Spanier said, expressing remorse, in reference to Sandusky’s victims. Spanier will appeal a misdemeanor of child endangerment charge that both Schultz and Curley pleaded guilty on.
Curley and Schultz also told the court they were sorry they didn’t do more.
“I am very remorseful I did not comprehend the severity of the situation. I sincerely apologize to the victims and to all who were impacted because of my mistake,” Curley said.
Said Schultz: “It really sickens me to think I might have played a part in children being hurt. I’m sorry that I didn’t do more, and I apologize to the victims.”
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http://ohiostate.247sports.com/Article/NBA-commissioner-Adam-Silver-says-one-and-done-rule-not-working–52994526
The NBA may be moving away from one and done and towards a rule like MLB has (0 or 3 years in college) except set at 2 years.
Before Game 1 of the NBA Finals, commissioner Adam Silver addressed the state of the league, including the one-and-done rule.
“My sense is it’s not working for anyone,” Silver said. “It’s not working certainly from the college coaches and athletic directors I hear from. They’re not happy with the current system. And I know our teams aren’t happy either in part because they don’t necessarily think that the players are coming into the league are getting the kind of training that they would expect to see among top draft picks in the league.”
…
As for what could change, Silver is not yet sure.
“I think we all agree that we need to make a change,” Silver said. “As I’ve said before, our position, at least our formal position, going into bargaining was that we wanted to raise the minimum age from 19 to 20, and of course their formal position was they want to lower the age from 19 to 18.
“I think it’s one of those issues that we need to come together and study.”
Raising the minimum age to 20 would mean that the majority of NBA Draft prospects would spend two years in college before jumping to the pros. This would not only help their development, but allow fans to get more familiar with the teams and coaches to plan better for what is to come.
There is also a thought of going to a rule similar to the college baseball model where players can get drafted straight out of high school or attend college but then have to stay for at least three years — although it sounds like the NBA would do just two in this case.
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Inside SEC baseball finances with charts and comparisons, including overall SEC revenues and expenditures.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_5edd22c0-465c-11e7-8b99-c709d5eb08c1.html
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B10 comparison from FY 2015 numbers:
Revenue:
The top 3 SEC teams were all near $6M.
The top 3 B10 teams made $2.1M, $1.6M and $1.3M.
The bottom 5 SEC teams did not make $1M.
11 B10 teams failed to reach $1M.
Expenses:
SEC expenses varied from $2-6M.
B10 expenses varied from $1.3-3.2M.
Only 2 SEC teams spent less than $2M.
7 B10 teams spent less than $2M.
Profits:
4 SEC teams made a profit with 1 breaking even.
1 B10 team broke even.
Only 3 SEC teams lost less than $2M.
Only 1 B10 team lost more than $2M ($2.05M).
The average B10 loss was $1.3M (not including the 1 breakeven team).
College baseball is slowly dying in the north/cold weather areas. Only 4 P5 schools lack baseball teams (WI, SU, ISU, CO) for now but it could become a Title IX casualty in more places since weather has such a huge impact (northern teams spend 4-6 weeks on the road to play OOC games in warm weather locations). Buffalo and Akron also have dropped baseball. Over 20 D-I schools have dropped baseball since 1990, all cold weather schools or HBCUs in moderate weather zones (DC, MD, TN).
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Speaking of baseball, the B10 is off to a roaring 0-3 start though the 2 other teams do lead in their openers. NE was #2 in their regional so they’re the only B10 team to be upset so far. IN is also a #2 so if they hold on to win it wouldn’t be an upset. IA is the #4 so them holding on would be an upset. I’ll be amazed if anyone but IN even makes a super-regional and shocked if anyone can advance to the CWS.
UNC is the only national seed to lose their opener so far and naturally MI has to face them in an elimination game tomorrow. The other B10 teams at least have a decent chance to survive until Sunday.
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Well, the B10 went 1-4 with IN blowing their lead. IA was the lone winner, and as the #4 seed in their regional will face the #3 seed TAMU who upset Baylor.
Today’s games:
Elimination games:
IN vs Ohio – in progress
MI vs UNC – 1pm
UMD vs UMBC – 2pm
NE vs Holy Cross – 4pm
Winners’ bracket:
IA vs TAMU – 8pm
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UMD and IN won while MI lost, all according to seed.
NE is tied in the 4th.
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NE lost and was eliminated. IA lost to move into the elimination game against UH. All B10 games are elimination games for them now.
Today’s games:
#3 UMD vs #2 WV – in progress
#2 IN vs #1 UK – 1pm
#4 IA vs #1 UH – 4pm
The winners advance to play another game later today.
#8 Stanford became the first national seed to be eliminated (by Cal State Fullerton).
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Here’s a run down of the whole baseball tournament through Saturday night.
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/ncaa-bracket-breakdown-day-two/
Regional winner – CSU-Fullerton won the Stanford regional over #8 National seed Stanford. This regional started a day early to accommodate BYU.
2-0 teams “FYI, since the format change in 1999, 236 of the 288 teams to start the Regionals 2-0 have won the Regional. That’s 82% of the time.”
National seeds – #1 Oregon State, #3 Florida, #4 LSU, #5 Texas Tech, #7 Louisville
#1 regional seed – Wake Forest
#2 regional seeds – Vandy, Texas, Mizzou State
#3 regional seeds – Auburn, Texas A&M, NC State
#4 regional seed – Davidson (first appearance in the baseball tournament)
The Fort Worth (TCU) and Hattiesburg (So. Miss) regionals are a day behind schedule due to weather.
Teams from multi-bid leagues that have been eliminated:
Big East – St. John’s (0-2)
Big Ten – Michigan (0-2), Nebraska (0-2)
Big 12 – OK State (0-2), Baylor (0-2)
Pac 12 – UCLA (0-2), Stanford (2-2)
AAC – UCF (0-2)
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Alan,
You can add UMD and IN to the eliminated list.
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I believe it’s the first time UCLA has gone winless in the post season.
Loci vs Alan coming up on ESPN’s SECN (that’s how espn described it). Touch gloves…
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Here’s the Sunday recap of the baseball tournament.
https://d1baseball.com/postseason/ncaa-bracket-breakdown-day-three/
Teams that have advanced to Super Regional play
National seeds: #1 Oregon State, #4 LSU, #7 Louisville
#1 regional seed Wake Forest
#2 regional seed Fullertion State
#4 regional seed Davidson – let that sink in. First ever NCAA appearance and beat the biggest baseball choke artists in #2 National seed UNC in Chapel Hill.
National seeds eliminated: #2 UNC & #8 Stanford
Winner take all games today:
#3 Florida v Bethune-Cookman at Gainsville – let that sink in
#5 Texas Tech v Sam Houston State at Lubbock
Clemson v Vandy at Clemson
Long Beach State v Texas at Long Beach
Florida State v Auburn at Tallahassee
Kentucky v NC State at Lexington
Arkansas v Missouri State at Fayetteville
Other games:
Southern Miss (2-0) v Miss State (2-1) at Hattiesburg, MS
Texas A&M (2-0) v Houston (2-1) at Houston
The Forth Worth regional still has three teams left with TCU having the advantage at 2-0. Virginia and Dallas Baptist play an elimination game.
Conference standings:
Big 12: 9-10
SEC: 19-6
Big West: 6-1
ACC: 17-6
Pac 12: 5-6
Big 10: 3-10
AAC: 3-5
All the SEC teams are still in the tournament.
Of the 27 teams still playing, here’s a breakdown based on conference.
SEC – 8: LSU (3-0), Texas A&M (2-0), Miss St (2-1), Vandy (2-1), Auburn (2-1), Kentucky (2-1), Arkansas (2-1) & Florida (2-1)
ACC – 6: Louisville (3-0), Wake Forest (3-0), Clemson (2-1), Florida State (2-1), NC State (2-1) & UVA (1-1)
Big 12 – 3: TCU (2-0), Texas (2-1) & Texas Tech (2-1)
Big West -2: Fullerton St. (3-0) & Long Beach St. (2-1)
Pac 12 – 1: Oregon State (3-0)
Atlantic 10: Davidson (3-0)
C-USA: Southern Miss (2-0)
Ohio Valley: Dallas Baptist (1-1)
MEAC: Bethune-Cookman (2-1)
Southland: Sam Houston State (2-1)
AAC: Houston (2-1)
Missouri Valley: Missouri State (2-1)
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/06/02/big-12-strong-financially-as-teams-split-348m-in-revenue/102433346/
The B12’s 2016-17 revenue numbers are out. The average distribution was $34.8M (not counting tier 3).
And for some irony:
Boren, the only one of the Big 12 presidents who has been in his position since the league’s inception two decades ago, said his goal is to eliminate the seemingly unending topic of league instability.
“This is ultimately not all about money. On the other hand, it’s like do you want to work for a company that’s financially sound or do you want to continue to work for a company that may collapse in the near future and you’ll have to be laid off,” he said. “The dramatic improvement as you go through the years. … It’s not only healthy, it’s robust. So that’s a very strong talking point on behalf of the conference.”
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I see it must be the time to embrace that you have a competitive contract for 1 or 2 years out of every cycle.
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As we all know, these numbers vary a lot depending on who is doing the reporting of them. But I think this tweet is just wrong.
Here are the numbers as reported by Jon Wilner not long ago and linked above:
2016 (actual)
SEC: $40.5 million
Big Ten: $34.8 million
Pac-12: $28.7 million
Big 12: $28.45 million
(The ACC has not reported FY16.)
[USA Today just showed them at $26.3M, but probably after Wilner wrote this]
2017 (projected)
SEC: $44 million
Big Ten: $38 million
Big 12: $34 million (per commissioner Bob Bowlsby)
Pac-12: $29.5 million
[ACC: $29M – using 10% bump as Wilner did]
I think Pollard blended some 2016 and 2017 numbers, not understanding that each conference reports their numbers at a different time of year. He’s using the 2017 number for the B12 but 2016 numbers for everyone else. And I don’t know how he has the ACC and P12 so low.
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Click to access May25DIOverall.pdf
The final standings won’t be out until the end of June, but it looks like Stanford has locked up yet another Director’s Cup.
Standings as of 5/25 (next release is 6/8):
1. Stanford – 1194.25
2. OSU – 925.5
3. MI – 822
4. PSU – 816.75
5. USC
6. UCLA
7. WI
8. UNC
9. UK
10. MN
13. NE
40t. IN
42. PU
43. MSU
45. IL
48. NW
49. IA
57. UMD
89. RU
The next release will include lacrosse, tennis, golf and rowing. Several B10 schools did well in those so they should rise in the rankings (UMD – both lacrosse titles should move them into the top 40, OSU – 4 top 5s should help close the gap to #1, etc).
Click to access complete-capital-one-cup-standings.pdf
Meanwhile, OSU lead the men’s Capital 1 Cup standings as of 6/1.
Men:
1. OSU – 111
2. UNC – 100
3. Stanford – 94.5
UMD is 4th with OSU 5th if you combine men’s and women’s scores:
1. Stanford – 270
2. USC – 165
3. UNC – 159
4. UMD – 147
5. OSU – 144
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Brian,
Will OSU win the Capitol One Cup? UNC has been eliminated in baseball. I thought the C. Cup breaks down and awards per sex. Thus, OSU could win M. Cup.
I’m not sure how the scoring works for Director’s Cup. I do know both sexes are integrated. But Stanford is out for baseball. OSU clearly outperformed Stanford in the pending sports for the June 8th release.
The last cycle for Director’s Cup, no idea. I briefly glanced the T&F preliminaries – not enough time to break it down.
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I think they’ll hold off UNC for the men’s title since UNC lost in the regionals.
They do break it down by gender, I just combined the scores to give an idea how the overall ADs did this year. It also makes for an easier comparison to the Director’s Cup.
As for the next DC release:
Big edge (OSU/Stanford):
OSU – M lax (2), M tennis (3-4/17-32)
Stanford – W golf (3-4)
Tradeoffs (OSU/Stanford):
Rowing (5/6)
W tennis (3-4/2)
Small points:
Stanford – M golf (20)
OSU will make up some ground (each sport is worth 100 max), but Stanford was strong enough to keep a big lead. Of course Stanford has already scored point in a bunch of sports and you can only count the top 10 men’s teams and the top 10 women’ teams so maybe they can’t take full advantage of all these points while OSU can use more of them. My rough calculations say OSU gained about 120 points on Stanford, leaving them a lead near 150 points.
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More from Wilner’s series on finances in the P12. This time it’s the debt service payments due. The 10 public schools combine for over $100M owed this year. For comparison, their TV deal averages $250M per year. That’s 40% accounted for off the top.
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That debt service is relevant to his next part, a look at the grim financial future for Cal athletics. Cal currently has 30 teams and was $22M in the red last year (with $18M in debt service). Even worse, the principal comes due in the 2030s with debt service jumping to over $30M per year).
A task force was charged with looking into the AD and deciding what the future should be, but apparently they will avoid detailed plans for how to fix things.
Look for Cal to drop 8-10 sports (mostly men’s) in the next few years unless football takes off and starts bringing in major money.
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That’s what happens when you’re ordered to rebuild a stadium straddling the Hayward fault. Adds about 150-200M to the already large cost.
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I think they were between a rock and a hard place. The stadium was on the NRHP and in an idyllic setting but was out of date and on a fault. It’s not like Cal had a bunch of empty land surrounding their campus. The stadium was right next to a giant hill so they couldn’t build a new one in that direction. Maybe they could’ve tried to move it up Strawberry Canyon, but we all know what the environmentalists are like out there. I think renovating the old one was their cheapest choice.
Where I think they made their mistake was in the extravagance of the plan. Just earthquake-proofing would’ve been affordable ($150M was estimated), but they decided they might as well redo the fan facilities and things at the same time and that more than doubled the cost. They also built new facilities for 13 sports (weight rooms, locker rooms, etc) under the seating as part of the project and that cost a bundle (well over $100M).
To be fair, they also built a new law and business building for $150M as part of the same master plan so it wasn’t just athletics spending money.
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It was a dump before. You had broken seats in the upper decks when I went there a few years back a couple of weeks before school started.
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bullet,
I’m not talking about that sort of upgrade. It was redoing concourses, concessions and other amenities that jacked up the price. While schools like OSU or UT can readily afford to do that, Cal might have been better off doing the bare minimum.
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Wilner does a 30 minute podcast with Steve Berkowitz from USA Today (he does their coaches salary database, covers legal issues, etc). They discuss a range of financial issues (Delany’s $20M bonus, coaches salaries, CFB vs MBB salaries, etc).
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Davidson!
Not just a basketball school.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19552198/three-michigan-state-spartans-charged-sexual-assault
The 3 MSU players under investigation have now been charged with sexual assault in addition to MSU going through their internal disciplinary system.
“I have decided to authorize sexual assault charges against the three persons whose warrants were requested by the MSU Police,” prosecutor Carol Siemon said. “We are alleging that on the night of January 16, those three persons sexually assaulted a woman in an East Lansing apartment on campus.”
Names probably won’t be announced until they are arraigned. I assume all 3 will be kicked off the team real soon now and are likely to be kicked out of school if there’s enough evidence for a criminal trial.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19560291/michigan-state-spartans-coach-mark-dantonio-reacts-sexual-assault-charges-players
As expected, MSU has kicked the 3 freshmen players off the team.
Josh King
Demetric Vance
Donnie Corley
That makes 4 freshmen charged with sexual assault this year along with 7 other players who have left the team for various reasons beyind graduating.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19552019/al-pacino-set-star-former-penn-state-nittany-lions-coach-joe-paterno-hbo-movie
HBO is doing a movie about JoePa and has cast Al Pacino in the lead role. I’m guessing this movie will either go over well nationally or in PSU territory but not both.
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Pacino might have been first actor targeted, but I wonder if the crowd of ex-Sopranos and Scorcese film actors might have turned down the role out of respect
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Funny.
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Good eye – I forgot the ellipsis between “role” and “out”
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The baseball Super Regionals are set.
Vandy at #1 Oregon St
Davidson at Texas A&M
Wake Forest at #3 Florida
Miss State at #4 LSU
Sam Houston St. at Florida St
Missouri St. at TCU
Kentucky at #7 Louisville
Fullerton St. at Long Beach St.
National seeds eliminated – #2 UNC, #5 Texas Tech & #8 Stanford
By conference:
SEC (6) – #3 Florida, #4 LSU, Kentucky [1], Miss St [2], Vandy[2], Texas A&M [3]
ACC (3) – #7 Louisville, Wake Forest [1], Florida St [1]
Big West (2) – Long Beach St [1], Fullerton St [2]
Pac 12 – #1 Oregon St
Big 12 – #6 TCU
Atlantic 10 – Davidson [4]
Southland – Sam Houston St [3]
Missouri Valley – Missouri St [2]
Note: # national seed; [ ] regional seed
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2017/06/07/oklahoma-coach-bob-stoops-retirement/102597330/
Huge news out of Norman, OK. Bob Stoops will retire after this season and he’s only 56. His OC Lincoln Riley is expected to take over for him.
Oklahoma football coach Bob Stoops will retire after 18 seasons at the school, a person with knowledge of the situation told USA TODAY Sports. The person asked not to be identified because the announcement had not been made.
…
Offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley is expected to replace Stoops. Riley interviewed with Houston last winter and recently signed an extension with the school. He, like Stoops, will assume the job having only served as a coordinator.
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Sorry, I misinterpreted that. Stoops is retiring immediately with Riley taking over.
I’m curious to find out what “personal reasons” are behind this (you know that’s what they’ll say at first).
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There is a curious lack of commentary on the NBA finals on this blog. Is the NBA a cult sport like hockey or soccer?
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Its a same old same old (3rd consecutive CLE v. GS) matchup looking to be a 4-0 sweep, but if the Cavs can come back for 0-3 might be some talking. The only tangential relationship to this blog might be thousands of Bulls fans wishing that Hoiberg took the Buckeyes now-vacant MBB head coaching job. Actually, with Hoib and now McDermott staying put, it looks like Jim Jackson era teammate and current tOSU assistant Chris Jent may end up with it. My dark horse pick has the Buckeyes waiting until the weekend to hire former Cavs HC and current GS assistant Mike Brown.
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NBA seems to push a cult of personality combined with WWE elements. I appreciate the Warriors seeming to bring/return a broader team concept to the game.
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bob sykes,
“There is a curious lack of commentary on the NBA finals on this blog. Is the NBA a cult sport like hockey or soccer?”
1. I have zero interest in the NBA and I make a disproportionate number of comments on here, so that’s one factor.
2. The demographics of the NBA and CFB fans have some overlap, but not as much as one might think. CFB skews older, whiter and more educated compared to the NBA.
3. Even for the NBA this has been a terribly boring postseason filled with blowouts and noncompetitive series.
4. Frank has talked about it on twitter some, but the NBA finals is pretty far afield from most of what we discuss here.
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Point 2 was demonstrated in the courtside shots of the Hawks – Wizards series. Watching that series, I was tempted to play the same counting game I had played as a young adult at the former Evergreen Plaza (Frank and other Chicago area people will get the reference). You might say it is far more “cult” in Eastern Conference cities with 3 to 4 major sport league franchises, than in the West where there are several markets where the NBA is the only or 1 of 2 or 3 franchises.
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I grew up in Boston during the Russell era, and to me the Celts, Nicks, 76s and Lakers of that time will always be the criterion for measuring excellence. I must confess I don’t watch any basketball or hockey or soccer. But I am still curious. GS is about to set an historic sports record, but no one seems to care.
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@Bob Sykes – Whoa! No one seems to care?! The entire sports media industrial complex for the past several weeks has basically been a non-stop discussion of whether the Warriors are the greatest team of all-time, how they would match up against the 1990s Bulls teams with Michael Jordan, etc. NBA playoff ratings have also been sky high (especially in the age 18-49 that advertisers pay the most for). I guess we might have a relative dearth of NBA fans on this blog, although that might be more of a lower crossover between NBA fans and college football fans compared to other sports as opposed to overall interest. Personally, I’m a massive NBA fan — it’s the sport that I actually enjoyed writing the most about prior to conference realignment taking over the news and it’s one of the few sports where I go out of my way to watch games that don’t involve my favorite team (the Bulls). I probably spend more time thinking up NBA trade and free agency scenarios than I do about conference realignment. (It’s actually very similar — see how the balance of power shifts when Kevin Durant decides to join an already-in-place superteam, which would have been like the Big Ten adding Texas, or how the Cavs, Heat and the entire Eastern Conference have been altered by the moves of LeBron James over the past several years.) Anecdotally, probably half of the students at my kids’ elementary school own some type of Warriors gear (mainly Steph Curry jerseys, one of which my son also owns)… and I live in suburban Chicago. The NBA Finals right now are probably as big of a deal of a non-NFL sporting event as you can get for a *neutral* market. (Obviously, a non-neutral market, such as Pittsburgh with the Penguins, is going to be more focused on the Stanley Cup.)
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Frank the Tank,
“Whoa! No one seems to care?! The entire sports media industrial complex for the past several weeks has basically been a non-stop discussion of whether the Warriors are the greatest team of all-time, how they would match up against the 1990s Bulls teams with Michael Jordan, etc.”
I think he meant no one here seems to care, not nationally. I’d also point out that that same discussion is held by the sports media seemingly almost every year about some team (USC before losing to Texas, the Patriots many times, Alabama several times, …). They know it’s a cheap and easy way to get ratings.
“NBA playoff ratings have also been sky high (especially in the age 18-49 that advertisers pay the most for).”
High for the post-MJ era, but about the same for the past 3 years. And the numbers weren’t as strong in the earlier rounds.
“I guess we might have a relative dearth of NBA fans on this blog, although that might be more of a lower crossover between NBA fans and college football fans compared to other sports as opposed to overall interest.”
I think it’s demographics (as I said above, CFB skews older, whiter and more educated) and location. Places where CFB is king tend to focus less on the NBA and vice versa.
“The NBA Finals right now are probably as big of a deal of a non-NFL sporting event as you can get for a *neutral* market. (Obviously, a non-neutral market, such as Pittsburgh with the Penguins, is going to be more focused on the Stanley Cup.)”
Just for a comparison, the NBA finals are drawing similar numbers to the OSU/MI game last year. Less than the Rose Bowl draws and half of what the CFP draws.
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@Brian – Those are fair points in general.
The NBA Finals ratings are very high, though. The overnight ratings so far are 12.4 for Game 1, 12.7 for Game 2 and 13.4 for Game 3. (Sports Media Watch has all of the numbers.) Those are lower than the CFP Championship Game itself (14.7), but higher than the semifinal games (11.0 overall). Ohio State-Michigan received a 10.4 overnight and the Rose Bowl had a 8.6 final.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/01/10/tv-ratings-dip-for-cfp-championship-on-espn-streaming-up/96410234/#
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/01/01/college-football-playoff-viewership-on-espn-rises-slightly/96064740/#
http://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2016/11/27/michigan-football-ohio-state-tv-ratings/94510984/
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2017/01/rose-bowl-ratings-espn-usc-penn-state-second-lowest/
The NBA Finals also have ratings that rise as the series goes longer. (Of course, that might not be happening this season.) Last year’s game 7 received an 18.9 overnight rating:
http://www.nba.com/2016/news/06/20/game-7-nba-finals-highest-rated-game-ever-abc/
Also note that the NBA audience is skewed more heavily to the age 18-49 demo, which makes its audience significantly more valuable to advertisers (e.g. even if college football and MLB get similar ratings to the NBA, the composition of the NBA audience is much more valuable and garners higher advertising fees). That’s why ESPN and Turner paid so much in the latest NBA contract — it has turned into the most valuable non-NFL sports property in the country when it comes to the audience it delivers (both in terms of size and demographics).
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Frank the Tank,
“The NBA Finals ratings are very high, though. The overnight ratings so far are 12.4 for Game 1, 12.7 for Game 2 and 13.4 for Game 3. (Sports Media Watch has all of the numbers.)”
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2017/06/cavaliers-warriors-ratings-up-nba-finals-viewership-abc/
The Warriors-Cavaliers NBA Finals has averaged a 10.6 rating and 19.2 million viewers on ABC through two games, per Nielsen fast-nationals — up 2% in ratings and 5% in viewership from last year (10.4, 18.3M) and down a tick but up 4% respectively versus 2015 (10.7, 18.5M), which featured the same two teams.
That’s what I based my statement on.
“Those are lower than the CFP Championship Game itself (14.7), but higher than the semifinal games (11.0 overall). Ohio State-Michigan received a 10.4 overnight and the Rose Bowl had a 8.6 final.”
I was talking the Rose Bowl in general, not 2017’s in particular. It’s been down in non-semifinal years since the CFP started but averaged a 12.2 during the BCS (non-NCG years) and is at 10.7 in the CFP era so far. That’s equal to the NBA finals, but not better. The old Rose Bowl did pull better as I showed. The CFPCG has averaged a 15.9, so I should’ve said the Finals were pulling 2/3 of the CFP.
“The NBA Finals also have ratings that rise as the series goes longer. (Of course, that might not be happening this season.) Last year’s game 7 received an 18.9 overnight rating:”
Sure, game 7 ratings go up. That game actually matters. Football doesn’t have series so there’s no direct comparison. You can see the ratings climb as football games are close in the fourth quarter.
“Also note that the NBA audience is skewed more heavily to the age 18-49 demo, which makes its audience significantly more valuable to advertisers (e.g. even if college football and MLB get similar ratings to the NBA, the composition of the NBA audience is much more valuable and garners higher advertising fees).”
Actually, I’d say the audience is more valued by the advertisers but not necessarily more valuable to them depending on the product. I read a story the other day questioning the wisdom of valuing the younger viewers so much since the baby boomers are a huge generation with a lot of expendable cash compared to millennials.
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Bob Sykes,
“GS is about to set an historic sports record, but no one seems to care.”
Problem solved.
I don’t think they were getting much respect for the record anyway because they probably would’ve lost game 1 to the Spurs if Zaza hadn’t injured Leonard.
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When one of the top three or four players in the league went to a team that almost won back to back titles, that sort of ended the NBA season for me. Yes, Durant will get his ring, but to many people, myself included, what he did was not at all classy and his ring will always have a footnote attached to it.
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@Jersey Bernie – I know a lot of sports fans like saying this (e.g. complaints about top players going to preexisting top teams), but the ratings and data show that the general public LOVES superteams and dynasties. The NBA ratings were highest during the Bulls dynasty during the 1990s and the Lakers dynasty during the 2000s, and they’re now back up to those levels again with the Warriors/LeBron (as I put him in his own category with bringing his all of his teams to the NBA Finals for the past 7 years, whether in Miami or Cleveland) combination. This is similar to when fans claim that they want to watch Cinderellas in the College Football Playoff as opposed to Alabama/Ohio State/Notre Dame/USC/etc., or that MLB TV partners are showing too many Yankees-Red Sox games, or that NFL TV partners are showing too many Cowboys games.. but the reality is that they’re liars. The ratings continuously show that people want the biggest brand names in the biggest spotlights.
What’s interesting is that the NBA is actually more egalitarian, as people truly do want to watch the best players and teams nationally as opposed to “rooting for laundry” (as Seinfeld used to say). MLB national TV ratings are almost entirely based on whether the Yankees, Red Sox and/or Cubs are involved. If you took the entire Cubs team and put them in, say, Tampa Bay Rays uniforms, they wouldn’t have received even a fraction of the ratings in last year’s World Series. (Granted, the Cubs winning the World Series last year was one of the biggest sports stories imaginable, but I’d say the same about the Yankees and Red Sox.) Kris Bryant could have had the exact same numbers as he did last year, but he isn’t signing national endorsement deals if those numbers were in a Rays uniform as opposed to a Cubs uniform. The NHL has a similar set of teams (e.g. Blackhawks, Penguins, Bruins). National interest in those sports isn’t about the most compelling teams on-the-field/court/ice, but rather the most compelling name brands. College football and basketball are very much the same way, which is why our discussions about conference realignment are focused much more on brands and institutions as opposed actual performance.
In contrast, despite the perception of NBA free agents favoring large markets, the fact of the matter is that it’s the only sport besides the NFL (which is its own universe) where the biggest superstars in the league can play in places like Cleveland, Oakland, Oklahoma City, and Houston (as opposed to NYC, LA, Chicago and Boston) and not suffer a single iota of marketing power as a result OR give up national TV ratings. On that plane, the fact the NBA is a superstar-driven league is a *good* thing for wide interest in the sport because superstar-driven teams are typically the ones that are the best teams… and that means the national public will want to watch the NBA Finals every year regardless of which frnachises or markets are involved. With apologies for the Nationals fans on the board here, that won’t be the case if the Nats make it to the World Series compared to the Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs (as MLB popularity is franchise-driven).
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Frank the Tank,
“I know a lot of sports fans like saying this (e.g. complaints about top players going to preexisting top teams), but the ratings and data show that the general public LOVES superteams and dynasties.”
Do they? Ratings show that people watch, not why they watch. Some people like to watch greatness, others watch in hopes of seeing the king dethroned. I think style of play has a lot to do with it as well as the personalities on the teams.
Besides, I think you and Bernie are talking slightly different things. He isn’t discounting the Warriors, just Durant for riding the coattails of a preexisting near-dynasty. Many people had no doubts all year that the GSW would crush all before them if their stars were healthy. That’s great for bandwagon fans (a large portion of America) who just want to see a bazillion threes made but is boring as hell to people who like competitive games.
“The NBA ratings were highest during the Bulls dynasty during the 1990s and the Lakers dynasty during the 2000s, and they’re now back up to those levels again with the Warriors/LeBron (as I put him in his own category with bringing his all of his teams to the NBA Finals for the past 7 years, whether in Miami or Cleveland) combination.”
But the ratings are better in the close games than in the blowouts. What will the ratings do if these two teams meet yet again next year? Unless Cleveland adds another megastar, why bother watching?
“This is similar to when fans claim that they want to watch Cinderellas in the College Football Playoff as opposed to Alabama/Ohio State/Notre Dame/USC/etc., or that MLB TV partners are showing too many Yankees-Red Sox games, or that NFL TV partners are showing too many Cowboys games.. but the reality is that they’re liars. The ratings continuously show that people want the biggest brand names in the biggest spotlights.”
You’re wrong here. The people who say that aren’t liars (at least not all of them), they just are a vocal minority. Those people really would rather see Cinderellas, etc. They just are nowhere near as numerous as bandwagon fans who only watch the best teams and then claim to always have been a fan of them.
“What’s interesting is that the NBA is actually more egalitarian, as people truly do want to watch the best players and teams nationally as opposed to “rooting for laundry” (as Seinfeld used to say).”
That’s because the NBA has promoted players not teams for 30+ years. It’s one of many reasons I stopped watching the NBA. The other sports promote teams first and stars second. You know, like they are actually team sports. The other sports also can’t give as much literal face time to the stars based on the nature of the games (baseball has to focus on the current hitter and pitcher) and the uniforms (helmets in football and hockey).
“In contrast, despite the perception of NBA free agents favoring large markets, the fact of the matter is that it’s the only sport besides the NFL (which is its own universe) where the biggest superstars in the league can play in places like Cleveland, Oakland, Oklahoma City, and Houston (as opposed to NYC, LA, Chicago and Boston) and not suffer a single iota of marketing power as a result OR give up national TV ratings.”
I think they actually do lose some marketing power by being in those other markets. LeBron would have even more deals and money if he was a local New Yorker that brought the Knicks a title, for example. It’s not a bug difference, but I think it’s there.
“On that plane, the fact the NBA is a superstar-driven league is a *good* thing for wide interest in the sport because superstar-driven teams are typically the ones that are the best teams… and that means the national public will want to watch the NBA Finals every year regardless of which frnachises or markets are involved.”
And this may be yet another reason why NBA and CFB fans don’t overlap as much as one might think. CFB is about teams as a team sport should be. NBA is all about me, me, me and disgusts a lot of team-first fans. The opposite is also true of course.
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In sadder news,
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ex-bills-wide-receiver-james-hardy-found-dead-in-an-indiana-river/
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/2017-big-ten-acc-challenge-matchups-announced.html
The B10/ACC challenge pairings have been released.
Home Away
Indiana Duke
Purdue Louisville
NC State Penn State
Virginia Wisconsin
Nebraska Boston College
Rutgers Florida State
Minnesota Miami
Michigan State Notre Dame
Virginia Tech Iowa
Ohio State Clemson
Georgia Tech Northwestern
North Carolina Michigan
Syracuse Maryland
Wake Forest Illinois
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Jon Wilner @wilnerhotline
·
Jun 7
We think that’s nuts
Signed,
USC
Stewart Mandel @slmandel
Pretty amazing that Oklahoma had had the same president, AD and football coach for 18 years.
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https://marquettewire.org/3972834/sports/column-a-few-years-in-the-big-east-is-fine-without-espn/
A column was just linked on an old FtT post. It’s about how the Big East is doing fine on FS1 instead of ESPN. Some of it sounds like wishful thinking, some doesn’t.
Nobody makes a big deal out of it now, but the signing of a new deal with the fledgling FOX Sports 1 was supposed to mark the “death” of the BIG EAST, or at least its regression to a second-tier conference. Instead of airing the BIG EAST Tournament on ESPN to an average audience of more than a million people per game, the first year on FS1 drew just under a third of that. …
Smash cut to 2017 and everything looks completely different. Ratings on the FOX Sports networks are up 16 percent from last year and over 80 percent from the first season in 2014. While the BIG EAST’s average of 192,000 viewers per game was still nowhere near the figure it used to draw at ESPN, it’s also far from the death that most people foresaw.
Up 80% is great, but it was down over 67% in that first year meaning it’s still down 40% overall (0.33 * 1.80 = 0.6). The B10 will throw a fit if their numbers are down that much.
Moreover, FOX Sports has done a really good job with production. There are a ton of criticisms you could level at FOX Sports and I probably agree with all of them, but BIG EAST basketball has received first-class treatment. The graphics are crisp, the announcing teams are solid (Bill Raftery is a treasure no matter what network he’s on) and they’re willing to try innovative stuff.
Maybe B10 fans will feel the same way. I hate their stupid robot and think ESPN does a better job actually showing the game and not missing plays while showing the crowd and other stupi things, but maybe Fox will improve.
In the pre-cord cutting era, everybody wanted to be with ESPN because they had the biggest audience and could afford to pay the most money. If trends continue and ESPN loses 15 to 20 million more subscribers by the mid-2020s without a way to replace the lost revenue, then they’re not going to be the biggest game in town anymore. We’ll see a new ESPN that, while still prominent, will have to pick its spots in negotiations. That means a few major conferences may do what the BIG EAST did over a decade earlier and leave.
Assuming that day ever comes, the BIG EAST will be in a great position because of the very thing that doomed the old conference: a lack of competitive football. While college football drives more revenue toward the so-called “Power Five” conferences than the basketball-only BIG EAST could ever hope to see, it also imposes massive expenses that no BIG EAST program has to deal with. …
Everybody else in the major conference arena has gotten used to a lucrative lifestyle that will be unsustainable in a few years given the way the media landscape seems to be shifting. On the day everything changes, those conferences will scramble to adjust to a world where they don’t have unlimited money anymore. …
None of this is to say the BIG EAST flipped the table on ESPN; the conference still isn’t getting the audience that it used to and ESPN is probably fine with not paying a single dime more in media rights than it has to pay. Still, the conference and, by extension, Marquette are getting along well without the network that was the traditional kingmaker in college sports for decades. It’s quite possible we’ll all look back on these last few years sometime in the 2020s or 2030s, after another major conference or two leaves, and say, “Wow, the BIG EAST was ahead of its time.”
This sounds more like wishing.
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/lincoln-riley-oklahoma-sooners-head-coach-bob-stoops-retirement-reaction-big-12-mandel-060817
Lincoln Riley faces a tough job in replacing Bob Stoops. Historically, replacing the winningest coach all time at a king program has been a tough row to hoe. Stewart Mandel wrote about it.
To get a sense of what he’s walking into, I looked up the all-time winningest coaches (by total victories) at the 13 schools I recently dubbed the “Kings” of college football — all of them powerhouses much like Oklahoma. And then I looked up the next guy. (See the full list below.)
It wasn’t pretty.
Among the all-timers (Alabama’s Bear Bryant, Ohio State’s Woody Hayes, etc.), the median coach spent 20 seasons at his respective school. Unfortunately, the median successor lasted just five.
The median all-timer won 75 percent of his games. The median successor managed 65 percent.
Most notably, 10 of the 13 were either fired, resigned under pressure or ran off to a lesser destination. Among the exceptions were USC’s John Robinson, who left for the NFL, came back and got fired the second time around, and Penn State’s Bill O’Brien, who stuck around for just two seasons before bolting to the NFL.
The third is a guy who may be Riley’s best model of hope — current Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher. He’s currently winning at an even higher clip than legendary predecessor Bobby Bowden.
Fisher, like Riley, was hand-picked by his boss to succeed him, albeit as a “head coach in waiting” who waited for two years. Fisher, like Riley, was a first-time head coach. And Fisher, like Riley, came in initially as an offensive coordinator charged with resuscitating a struggling offense.
But even Fisher had one advantage that Riley did not.
Florida State had gone stagnant in Bowden’s latter years, sinking to a 7-6 record in his final season before handing over the reins to Fisher. ‘Noles fans therefore did not necessarily expect him to win at peak-Bowden level right away, and in fact he went 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons. Two years later he went 14-0 and won the national title.
Riley, by contrast, is taking over a program coming off consecutive 11-win seasons and returning a Heisman finalist quarterback. He’ll be expected both to win big right away — and then keep winning big. This is, after all, the same fan base, much of which wanted to run off Stoops after an 8-5 season in 2014.
Here’s wishing Riley nothing but the best. Here’s hoping for his sake he enjoys a run like Fisher’s, or at the very least a respectable one like Hayes successor Earle Bruce, who won four Big Ten titles in nine seasons in Columbus before wearing out his welcome.
…
Alabama
Bear Bryant (1958-82): 232-46-9 (.824)
Ray Perkins (1983-86): 32-15-1 (.677)
Clemson
Frank Howard (1940-69): 165-118-12 (.580)
Hootie Ingram (1970-72): 12-21 (.364)
Florida
Steve Spurrier (1990-2001): 122-27-1 (.817)
Ron Zook (2002-04): 23-14 (.622)
Florida State
Bobby Bowden (1976-2009): 304-97-4 (.756)
Jimbo Fisher (2010-present): 77-17 (.819)
LSU
Charlie McClendon (1962-79): 137-59-7 (.692)
Jerry Stovall (1980-83): 22-21-2 (.511)
Miami
Andy Gustafson (1948-63): 93-65-3 (.587)
Charlie Tate (1964-70): 34-27-3 (.555)
Michigan:
Bo Schembechler (1969-89): 194-48-5 (.796)
Gary Moeller* (1990-94): 44-14-3 (.758)
Notre Dame
Knute Rockne (1918-30): 105–12–5 (.881)
Heartley “Hunk” Anderson (1931-33): 16-9-2 (.630)
Ohio State
Woody Hayes (1951-78): 205-61-10 (.761)
Earle Bruce (1979-87): 81-26-1 (.755)
Oklahoma (pre-Stoops)
Barry Switzer (1973-88): 157-29-4 (.837)
Gary Gibbs (1989-94): 44-23-2 (.652)
Penn State
Joe Paterno (1966-2011): 409-136-3 (.749)
Bill O’Brien (2012-13): 15-9 (.625)
Texas
Darrell Royal (1957-76): 167-47-5 (.774)
Fred Akers (1977-86): 86-31-2 (.731)
USC
John McKay (1960-75): 127-40-8 (.749)
John Robinson (1976-82**): 67-14-2 (.807)
*Moeller was fired in 1995 for an off-field incident.
**Robinson returned as USC’s coach from 1993-97.
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http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-07/college-baseball-how-do-national-seeds-perform-ncaa-tournament-and
In 1999 the NCAA baseball tournament expanded to 64 teams with 8 national seeds. At first that worked well, but lately the seeds have been underperforming. In the first 5 years, 2 national seeds made the finals and obviously one of them one the title. In the following 13 years only twice have 2 national seeds made the finals and those are also the only 2 years a national seed has won the title.
According to the data, this year’s regionals were just a bit more upset-happy than usual. Since 1999, national seeds have lost in the regional 20.14 percent of the time. In other words, approximately 1.6 national seeds fall in the opening weekend each year.
On average, another 1.9 national seeds (23.61 percent) fail to make it out of the super regionals. That leaves 4.5 national seeds (56.25 percent) making it to Omaha for the eight-team College World Series in a standard year.
Once they get to Omaha, those numbers naturally slim. In the 18-year history of the modern NCAA baseball tournament, 21 national seeds (14.58 percent) have made it to the CWS finals — about 1.2 per tournament. Just seven have ever won the title (4.86 percent), or one every 2.57 years.
That number has been trending down quite a bit, though. When the national seeds were first introduced, one of the eight ranked teams won the national championship over another ranked team in five straight years (from 1999-2003). In the 13 years since, only two national seeds have won the title — 3-seed LSU in 2009 and 4-seed South Carolina in 2011.
Furthermore, from 1999 to 2006, 65.6 percent of national seeds reached the College World Series. Since then, in the past 10 years, that number shrank to 48.75 percent. In other words, since 2007, less than half of all national seeds even make it to Omaha.
That first year of the national seed was actually the only time a No. 1 seed has ever won the tournament, when Miami took home the crown in 1999. In fact, No. 2 seeds have performed better than the No. 1 seed throughout history. Three top seeds have lost in the regional round, compared to just two No. 2 seeds (including North Carolina this year), more No. 2 seeds have made the CWS semifinals (nine to six) as No. 1 seeds, and No. 2 seeds have captured a pair of titles.
The article goes on to compare the CWS to the Elite Eight and shows that basketball seeds win much more often despite hoops being single elimination. I think that just reflects the nature of the sports (best NBA W% ever is 0.890, best modern MLB W% is 0.716). In a low scoring sport, fluke plays matter a lot more (compare an error in baseball to a turnover in hoops).
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Click to access June8DIOverall.pdf
Director’s Cup update:
1. Stanford – 1556.75
2. OSU – 1376.75 (180 behind)
3. MI – 1144.75
4. USC
5. UNC
6. UCLA
7. UF
8. PSU
9. Cal
10. UT
11. WI
24. MN
32. NW
36. NE
38. IL
39. PU
45. UMD
50. IN
51. MSU
56. IA
109. RU
Next week they’ll add in softball and track & field. The final update (6/30 or 7/1) will add baseball. Stanford has it locked up since OSU can’t score enough to pass them. OSU beat Stanford in Winter and Spring sports but Stanford killed OSU in Fall (W soccer plus both CC teams mostly).
Up above I said OSU should close the gap by about 120 points to around 150, so I was close. I thought UMD might make the top 40 with their 2 lacrosse titles but they only got up to 45 (about 28 points behind #40). Other B10 schools dropped as others scored points.
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Another setback for B1G baseball — Szefc is leaving Maryland for Virginia Tech after five seasons in College Park. The program may tread water for a few years until the Terps get full conference funding and can seriously plan to build a new stadium to replace outdated Shipley Field. http://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps/2017/6/9/15770878/john-szefc-leaving-virginia-tech
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That’s going to be a while for UMD, isn’t it? UMD took a front loaded deal when joining the B10 but a lot of that money was redirected to paying off the ACC and debt to the academic side of the university. Nominally there are 3 years left in their 6 year buy-in period but UMD will be missing full payments until the front-loading is paid off.
http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/
Is it really a question of not having enough money or is it about priorities at UMD? UMD is spending over $92.5M a year on athletics, #27 in the country. Granted that’s with over $14.5M in subsidies, but that’s down from the previous year (all numbers are for 2014-2015). There was a big jump in facilities/overhead expenses. Maybe UMD is waiting to pay off other projects before baseball moves to the top of the list.
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Maybe UMd is waiting to pay off other projects before baseball moves to the top of the list.
That’s almost certainly it. The payoff from joining the Big Ten will be worth it in the long term —
academically and athletically — but for now, it isn’t that high a priority…and it’s easier to be competitive in B1G baseball than in the ACC. But a decade ago, Terrapin baseball appeared to be a lost cause; now, a winning program in College Park is realistically possible.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/oregon-state-pitcher-luke-heimlich-takes-leave-absence-amid-sex-offender-revelation.html
Just to show you how much less attention other college sports get, it only recently came out that one of Oregon State’s star pitchers is a registered sex offender (for molesting a 6-year-old relative when he was 15). Because it came out, he has pulled himself off the team as it plays in the CWS.
Meanwhile, this guy was considered a top 60 draft prospect. Now teams are starting to pull him off their draft boards. Did MLB teams know before this and just not say anything? Surely OrSU knew about this but admitted him anyway. Did he face any restrictions on campus (many schools offer day care)?
Should schools accept teen offenders like this? I’m guessing people would throw a fit if a football coach accepted such a player. Is it okay in a non-revenue sport?
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That’s tough. Juvenal offense in most other case is expunged once sentence/conditions met. Apparently he was unaware/missed registering in “new” state (he’s from WA) when he turned 21 this spring. Had he, we’d never have known.
Doesn’t look like missing him hurt OSU much. Replacement throws a 104 pitch, 10K, 5H, 1ER, CG beating the potential #1 pick in tomorrow’s draft.
Alan: were you at Box last night? That was an exciting game!
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That’s why I’m asking. Where do we want the line drawn?
Adult convicted felons lose their voting rights in most states for some period of time (2 – never lose it, 14 – get it once out of prison, 4 – get it after parole ends, 20 – get it after probation ends, 10 – may never get it back). That shows that much of America feels you should have to serve every aspect of your punishment before getting a fundamental right back.
We’re talking about juvenile offenders in this case, but also a much lesser right (the right to an athletic scholarship from a state school). People have made clear they don’t want violent or sexual felons getting scholarships (see Baylor). Is a mid-teens sexual crime less worrisome? It’s not like this was a borderline case. He molested a 6-year-old when he was 15. Would it be different if he was 17 or 18 at the time?
Does anyone disagree that this would’ve gotten a ton of publicity if he was a football player? Is there any doubt that the pressure would’ve been huge not to offer him a full ride for football?
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Again, had he not failed to register at 21 in a “new” state no one would have known. There may be a number of FB players currently that no one knows or will know about. Maybe I’m wrong. I don’t think the concern is different based on the sport. The only difference is the amount of coverage the particular sport draws, and added scrutiny higher coverage brings.
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Not true. Yes, that’s how this reporter happened to find out but his conviction was public record.
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2017/06/why_we_published_the_story_abo.html
Most juvenile cases are kept sealed. But Washington considers the type of crime Heimlich committed to be so serious that the records are not confidential for juvenile offenders. And since 1997, Oregon has required people convicted of felony sex offenses elsewhere as juveniles to register as sex offenders here.
…
After those initial interviews had been conducted, Moran performed a routine background check – something we do on profile subjects. He ran Heimlich’s name through the Oregon courts database and came up with this: Heimlich had been cited in April for failing to update his sex offender registration in Benton County.
Moran requested court documents in Washington state, where the molestation occurred. The public records reveal what happened and include a short admission of guilt written in Heimlich’s own hand.
http://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2017/06/luke_heimlich_sex_crime_surfac.html
Also, there’s this.
A Benton County sheriff’s sergeant, on a sweep to track down sex offenders who let their registrations lapse, located one at Gill Coliseum, the heart of Oregon State’s bucolic campus. It was Luke Heimlich, the ace left-hander who statistically is the nation’s best pitcher and is among the top prospects in next week’s Major League Baseball draft.
As a teenager, Heimlich pleaded guilty to a single charge of sexually molesting a 6-year-old female family member. Heimlich registered as a sex offender in Benton County after arriving at Oregon State. When he was cited in April for missing an annual update, it put the case in Oregon court records for the first time.
He didn’t fail to register in OR. He knew he needed to and didn’t renew it.
Oregon State does not have a policy barring student-athletes with prior felony convictions from competition, Barnes said. And the athletic department, like the university at large, does not ask student-athletes to disclose criminal convictions during the admissions process.
Barnes consequently said he does not know how many Oregon State student-athletes have prior felony convictions, if any, beyond Heimlich.
“If we are made aware of an issue, we will mitigate it,” Barnes said. “We will understand the severity of it, whether it’s a safety concern or not, and we will deal with it.”
Oregon State does learn when a student is a registered sex offender, according to university spokesman Steve Clark. Oregon State Police send the university a list of registered sex offenders in Benton County “on a regular ongoing basis,” Clark said. The university then cross-checks those names with its student database to verify sex offenders who have enrolled.
The state police would not say how often the agency provides such lists to the university.
Assuming that process worked, then university officials would have learned about Heimlich’s sex-offender status sometime after his arrival on campus in fall 2014, before his rise to stardom.
As for different sports, do you not remember the hubbub around certain recruits and transfers with criminal pasts in football? I certainly do. It’s hard to imagine a CFB recruit not having this come out with all the attention paid to football recruits.
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Brian:
That makes it clearer, but it doesn’t address states that do seal all juvenile records. In this case it was discoverable.
“As for different sports, do you not remember the hubbub around certain recruits and transfers with criminal pasts in football?”
Two things. Yes, I do. Particularly those involving offenses committed after entering college and involving transfers. Some, but less about juvenile offenders. Second, I’ve seen many reports about “misconduct” of various titillating sorts involving other sports. Remember, the offense draws attention as well as the popularity of the sport. I think you are not attributing enough of the response to offense+(visibility^2). Man bites dog is a story – Pope bites dog is P1 headline.
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ccrider55,
“That makes it clearer, but it doesn’t address states that do seal all juvenile records. In this case it was discoverable.”
Of course. But in states where it is public record, what expectations should we have of universities?
“Particularly those involving offenses committed after entering college and involving transfers. Some, but less about juvenile offenders.
“Second, I’ve seen many reports about “misconduct” of various titillating sorts involving other sports.”
“Remember, the offense draws attention as well as the popularity of the sport. I think you are not attributing enough of the response to offense+(visibility^2).”
My point is that top football recruits automatically have high visibility. So do potential top NFL draft picks. It’s hard to imagine MLB teams didn’t do a background check on a top 60 prospect. It’s a shame if universities aren’t doing background checks before offering scholarships. It’s one thing to admit someone as a student. It’s another to allow them to represent the university while getting a scholarship.
Look at Auston Robertson’s case. He was a 4* recruit that MSU wanted but held off until 3/30/16 to sign because of an incident in high school. He completed a diversionary program and had his record cleared, and only then would MSU consider him. The point is, everyone knew about it and MSU caught a ton of flack for recruiting and signing him. He was accused of committing a rape on 4/8/17 and was kicked off the team before the end of April.
http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/local/2017/04/21/msu-football-player-charged-sexual-assault/100740444/
He was arrested in January 2016 on a misdemeanor battery charge stemming from an October 2015 incident at his high school, Wayne High. Robertson was accused of improperly touching a female classmate, according to Allen Superior Court 4 records. He entered into a diversionary program for that case, which he completed March 11.
Those charges were cleared from his record March 22 after he fulfilled the terms of his diversionary program and by not getting into further trouble, according to court records. Eighteen days later, he was accused of the more significant offense.
Robertson did not sign with MSU on signing day in 2016 after the first incident was reported. Dantonio announced Robertson’s signing March 30, 2016, 19 days after he entered into the diversionary program.
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Brian:
“It’s a shame if universities aren’t doing background checks before offering scholarships. It’s one thing to admit someone as a student. It’s another to allow them to represent the university while getting a scholarship.”
I really don’t see the relevance, other than a probable higher visibility, to the financial arrangements to attending school. Most sports outside FB and BB divide the allowed scholarships over a larger number of students, or to have a student earn a scholarship as late as their sr. year. My thought is that all students be screened similarly. A potential future victim probably cares not whether the assault was by a scholly athlete or a part time student.
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OrSU admits about 4800 students every fall. They have 545 student athletes, so maybe 125 new scholarship athletes per year. It’s much more realistic to do deeper screening on the much smaller pool of students who want an athletic scholarship.
They could start with the easy step of asking all applicants to disclose any criminal convictions.
OrSU admits they do know of all registered sex offenders amongst their students.
University procedures call for sharing the information with officials from human resources, the Office of Student Life and the campus police. The human resources department notifies the student and requests an interview.
Clark initially said the university has no formal policy requiring that the information be shared with anyone in the athletic department, including a player’s own head coach. Decisions are made on the basis of “educational need to know,” Clark said. The university’s written procedures call for the Office of Student Life to find out if an offender is a student-athlete, although university officials say they treat all students the same.
But on Thursday, after a version of this story was published online, Clark provided new information. Under university practice, he said, the athletics department is supposed to be notified when a student-athlete is a registered sex offender. Citing student privacy rules, Clark would not say whether that happened.
So they are already treating athletes differently in this regard. I’m only questioning whether they should do that before accepting them, not after.
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cc – I was there Saturday night and Sunday night/Monday morning. When I left the stadium early this morning during the second rain delay at 1:15am, there were still probably 5000 fans remaining.
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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/06/05/Research-and-Ratings/Viewership-trends.aspx
SBJ commissioned a study of the median age of TV viewers for various sports in 2000, 2006 and 2016. As you’d expect, they’re generally trending older as younger viewers use alternative sources (streaming) more often. See the article for tables of the median ages.
The study, conducted exclusively for SportsBusiness Journal by Magna Global, looked at live, regular-season game coverage of major sports across both broadcast and cable television in 2000, 2006 and 2016. It showed that while the median age of viewers of most sports, except the WTA, NBA and MLS, is aging faster than the overall U.S. population, it is doing so at a slower pace than prime-time TV.
…
“There is an increased interest in short-term things, like stats and quick highlights,” said Brian Hughes, senior vice president of audience intelligence and strategy at Magna Global USA. “That availability of information has naturally funneled some younger viewers away from TV.”
…
“It is smartphone and tablet usage by younger people who are on Snapchat or Instagram all day long and watching a lot of videos on YouTube and Netflix,” McPeek said. “Rarely are they watching TV and they are on their device constantly where they can watch videos on demand.”
None of the properties contacted contested the data, but most pointed to digital consumption among younger viewers, which was not included in the study and is growing rapidly.
…
“There are now so many different ways to engage with properties, and people are getting highlights whenever they want,” said Doug Perlman, chief executive officer of Sports Media Advisors. “People have to question whether younger viewers are less inclined to watch or less inclined to watch as long.”
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http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/baseball/d1/2017
The CWS is almost set.
National seeds advancing:
1. OrSU
4. LSU
6. TCU
7. UL
Others:
FSU
TAMU
Cal St Fullerton
The final spot is down to #3 UF vs WF. They’ve split their first 2 games (both went 11 innings) and just started the decisive third game.
Click to access baseball_d1_2017.pdf
Matchups:
OrSU vs CSF
LSU vs FSU
UL vs TAMU
TCU vs UF/WF
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/06/13/swac-will-drop-football-title-game-after-upcoming-season/102813824/
The SWAC will drop their CCG after this season.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/06/13/which-coach-will-join-the-list-of-national-champions/102792304/
As multiple people have noted, when Bob Stoops retired that left only 4 active coaches who have won a I-A national title (Saban, Meyer, Fisher, Swinney). The natural question is who will be the next man to win his first title.
USA Today’s ordered list:
1. Harbaugh
2. Petersen
3. Shaw
4. Helton
5. Richt
6. Patterson
7. Herman
8. Franklin
9. Kelly
10. Smart
Notes on their list:
* Their first 4 (and 7 of 10) all play 9 conference games. To me that’s a negative for making the CFP, especially if you play a tough OOC game on top of that since it’s hard to make the CFP without winning your conference. On the other hand, someone has to make the CFP.
* 3 P12, 2 B10, 2 B12, 1 ACC, 1 SEC. AL is so dominant in the SEC for now that only UGA is given a decent shot to win a title.
* I think Stanford is a bit of a stretch. They haven’t been that level of elite very often, especially since Harbaugh’s players have left (1 top 5 finish in Shaw’s 6 years). He’s never lost fewer than 2 games. I think they’re more on the level of Wisconsin.
* Kelly has shown me very little to make me believe he can win a title at ND. He had one great season against a weak schedule and got crushed in the BCSCG. He’s only won 10 games twice in 7 seasons.
* Patterson is in a tough place to do it. He’s had a couple of great seasons since joining the B12 but is only 40-24 over those 5 seasons in the B12 (8-4.8). He’ll need Riley and Herman not to be great at OU and UT respectively for him to do it.
* Interesting that Lincoln Riley isn’t on the list. I think any HC of a king that’s eligible should be on the list by default (the only excuse for Kelly), but I realize he’s never been a HC before.
I’d reverse engineer my list. First figure out who is most likely to win each conference and remove the four ineligible coaches. The remainder should be your list in roughly the order of their chances to win their conference and thus make the CFP.
ACC – FSU and Clemson dominate right now. Nobody else has won the ACC since BC in 2008. On the other hand, Miami is in the other division, has great recruiting grounds and has some history. VT has won the Coastal a lot though, and they have a hot new coach. Richt couldn’t get it done at UGA so it’s hard to see why it would happen now at Miami. Richt – 15%, Fuente – 10%
B10 – OSU is the leader, but MI and PSU aren’t far behind depending on the year. The down side is having those 3 fighting over 1 division. The best of the West can be in the mix, too. Harbaugh – 25%, Franklin – 20%, Chryst – 10%, Riley 7%
B12 – It’s a bit of a free for all with two young coaches running the kings. Patterson and Gundy have flirted with making the NCG but just missed. I’ll dock Riley some points just for never having been a HC before. Herman – 30%, Gundy – 20%, Riley – 15%, Patterson – 15%
P12 – Multiple options here, too. Much like the B12, the problems is that too many teams are competitive. Helton has the power of USC while Petersen has the great track record and the history of UW. OR has money, too while Stanford has been solid for a while. Petersen – 25%, Helton – 20%, Shaw – 15%, Taggart – 10%, Whittingham – 10%
SEC – AL dominates the West and the SEC in general. McElwain – 15%, Smart – 15%, Orgeron – 10%, Malzahn – 10%
Ind. – Kelly – 10%
My list by %:
1. Herman
2. Harbaugh, Petersen
4. Franklin, Gundy, Helton
7. Richt, Riley (OU), Patterson, Shaw, McElwain, Smart
Final list:
1. Herman
2. Harbaugh
3. Petersen
4. Franklin
5. Helton
6. Gundy
7. Richt
8. Patterson
9. Shaw
10. Riley (OU), McElwain, Smart – all too new to separate yet
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19617216/big-ten-discussing-20-game-conference-slate
Delany says that the B10 is thinking about going to a 20-game schedule and Izzo thinks that’s the future.
“I personally see us going to a 20-game schedule,” Izzo told ESPN on Monday. “I don’t think there’s any question it’s going to happen — and I’m not overly against it.”
The Big Ten added two conference games and went from 16 to 18 back in 2007-08.
Delany said the coaches haven’t voted on whether to go from an 18- to a 20-game conference slate yet. He said the logistics will have to be figured out, especially with recovery time for the players.
“If we do it, we need to present it in a healthy way,” Delany said.
However, Delany said that the move would certainly be favorable to bring more high-profile games to college basketball earlier in the season. It would mean that league play would start in December — normally a time of year reserved for unbalanced nonconference matchups.
Izzo told ESPN that he would be in favor the change to 20 Big Ten contests — as long as all of the power leagues do the same.
“If everyone doesn’t go to 20 games in the power five, someone will have a major advantage in terms of wins and losses,” Izzo added. “When you are only talking about a difference of one game in wins, it’s not a big deal. But when you start talking two or three wins, a lot of time they will take the team with the better record.”
The ACC announced last July that it intends to move to a 20-game league schedule beginning in the 2019-20 season.
We know the ACC will go to 20. The P12 could probably be convinced. The B12 won’t unless they expand because 18 is perfect (full round robin) for 10 teams. That just leaves the SEC, and they’ll do whatever UK says which is probably to stay at 18 so they have more OOC games to play with. I think the B10 should do it and use the extra games to lock some rivalries.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/kentucky/2017/06/13/john-calipari-tv-networks-jeopardizing-marquee-games/391995001/
As predicted, UK is against moving to 20 games in the SEC.
Blame television for killing off potential regular-season marquee matchups in college basketball.
That’s according to Kentucky coach John Calipari, who said conferences moving to a 20-game league slate is for “the networks” and will hurt flexibility and versatility in nonconference scheduling.
“They need more inventory for their own network so you just play more league games and then you have more inventory for your network to put on,” Calipari said via teleconference Tuesday. “Hopefully in our case in this league (the Southeastern Conference) we stay where we are and if we don’t, we’ll make it work.”
Not surprisingly, it doesn’t even enter his mind that playing all the other SEC schools more often is a good thing for fans or that other conferences might feel that way even if the SEC doesn’t. It’s not like the B10 or SEC are going to significantly change the value of their networks with 2 more conference games.
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But Kentucky can’t override the other 13 schools if they want to go to 20. Persuade them to vote against it, yes, but UK can’t veto it single-handedly. This isn’t the UN Security Council. I’m certain that while many conference rivals can’t stand Kentucky and its fans, they don’t mind the near-annual influx of blue into their new arenas…especially when their own fans rarely fill them.
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UK doesn’t have to force anything. The SEC basically lets UK dictate hoops policy because it’s the goose that lays the golden eggs. It’s not like SEC schools have a history of playing each other a lot.
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And then they wonder why so many of those schools can’t field successful men’s basketball programs. It’s far easier to do than in football, but when you’re in a conference that’s perceived as treating the sport as an afterthought, that’s the result you’re going to get. Perhaps it’ll take a few years of post-football season cancellations of the SECN for them to get it.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/06/13/lsu-texas-football-satellite-camp-belhaven-university-tom-herman-ed-orgeron
LSU has now forced 3 different satellite camps in LA that were to have UT’s coaches present to be cancelled. This is just petty and is hurting prospects and lower-level schools. LSU should be embarrassed.
Texas was scheduled to participate in a satellite camp hosted by Division III Belhaven University, first in Baton Rouge and then later in Hammond, La., on Thursday. By late Tuesday evening, Belhaven head coach Hal Mumme said political pressure from LSU ultimately led to the camp being canceled.
…
Mumme said the canceled camp will cost cash-strapped Belhaven, which is located in Jackson, Miss., $5,000.
…
Local coaches have been critical of LSU’s perceived role behind the scenes boxing out schools like Arkansas, Houston and Texas, as it has limited the exposure of high school kids in Louisiana. (Texas, Houston, Cornell and Belhaven were committed to Thursday’s camp in Baton Rouge. Mumme said more coaching staffs may have joined). There’s a feeling locally that LSU’s vigilance to protect the state has hurt kids who aren’t talented enough to get offered scholarships to an SEC power like LSU. Roach said three Madison Prep players in recent years ended up at Houston (Bryan Jones), Texas (Malcolm Roach) and Oklahoma (Troy James) that didn’t get offered by LSU.
“I guess we let the optics of college football influence the ultimate goal, educating young men and exposing them to a better life,” Roach said in an interview on Tuesday. “The optics of college football has gotten in the way of what the mission of this thing is all about. I don’t have any allegiance to anyone. I have an allegiance to these kids in my community.”
…
“If you are the head coach at LSU, you should want the other kids in your state to have an opportunity,” Mumme said. “Ed needs to think about those kids that aren’t going to get a scholarship to LSU. I’ve been in the SEC as the coach of the (flagship) university of the state. You have show respect to those other kids as well.”
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Frank, If this is accurate it seems that the State of Illinois has real financial issues that are close to coming to a head. As a very minor part of that the Illini will necessarily suffer, but that is a footnote to the people who may be hurt. The author blames both Democrats and Republicans. https://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/06/14/the-illinois-meltdown/
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Pensions are a tough problem, especially in a strongly unionized state. Add in an aging population and a lot of rust belt states could be in trouble going forward if the unions don’t compromise. Look at what the auto industry had to go through 10 years ago to get the UAW to bend.
Now you put IL and Chicago politics on top of that and I’m not surprised there is massive trouble. CA has $400B in debt looming over them although they’ve basically managed to have a balanced budget since 2013. Similar issues exist on the federal level.
Promises were made 50+ years ago that can’t be covered today as people live longer and health care gets more expensive. Benefits for old people are the third rail in politics, so everyone keeps kicking the can down the road while the problems mushroom. At some point American society is going to have to bite the bullet and make significant sacrifices to solve these issues, but politicians are too afraid of losing elections to actually do anything about it.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/19643794/louisville-cardinals-coach-rick-pitino-suspended-five-games-ncaa
The NCAA issued its verdict on UL’s MBB team. Pitino is suspended for the first 5 ACC games this year and they’re on 4 years of probation. In addition, they have to vacate all wins from 12/2010 through 3/2014 in which ineligible players were used. That could mean vacating their national title from 2012-13 which would be a first. UL also got scholarship reductions and recruiting restrictions, a $5,000 fine and must forfeit all their money from the 2012-15 NCAA tournaments. The committee accepted Louisville’s self-imposed postseason ban from the 2015-16 season. Andre McGee, who hired the strippers/prostitutes, got a 10-year show cause penalty.
A source familiar with the testimony of three of the former Louisville recruits to NCAA investigators told ESPN’s John Barr that he can’t believe Pitino’s penalties aren’t worse.
“Five games? If I could do these things and get a five-game suspension, why not cheat?” the source told ESPN. “We have a head coach and a program that skated. If academic fraud is bad, how do prostitution and higher education mix? This was as bad or worse than any academic fraud.”
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http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/louisville-sanctions-north-carolina-ole-miss-061517
Is the UL case a harbinger of what’s to come for UNC and Ole Miss? Pete Thamel looks into it including interviewing expert lawyers.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19645334/oklahoma-sooners-qb-baker-mayfield-not-face-suspension-alcohol-related-incident
Baker Mayfield won’t missing a minute of game time for his February arrest and charges of public intoxication, disorderly conduct, fleeing and resisting arrest. Instead he has to take an alcohol-education class and do 35 hours of community service. That’s from OU, not the legal outcome.
It’s good to see the new coach setting the bar so high for discipline.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/indiana-hoosiers-foster-farms-bowl.html
IN managed to sell a whopping 672 of their 7000 bowl ticket allotment last year. The B10 covered most of the rest and IN ended up making a small profit from bowl season.
The Hoosiers ate a little under $100,000 in unsold tickets and dumped the vast majority of the cost on the Big Ten, which picked up a $407,557 tab for about 5,300 tickets.
…
This is becoming a regular problem for Indiana. Last season, well over half of their ticket allotment for the Pinstripe Bowl went unsold (over 4000 of 7500 allotted went unsold and IN only covered 950 of them).
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Is that a lot? I think that’s a lot.
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Presumably this means that the TV deal is finished or just waiting the dotting of i’s and crossing of t’s.
http://www.dailynebraskan.com/nse/unl-to-receive-full-big-ten-benefits-after-six-years/article_4c48981c-38e0-11e7-a20e-4f245739bd5d.html
It should make for quite a jump in Lincoln.
Starting this fall, Nebraska will be a fully vested member of the conference it joined six years ago, meaning Nebraska will see its largest pay day from a conference ever.
When Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011, it received $14 million. From there, it increased to $15.4 million in the second year, then $16.9 million, $18.7 million and $22 million last year, according to the Omaha World-Herald.
So NE should get around $25M+ this year as their final reduced payment. Once we have that final number, we can calculate how much NE actually paid to buy into BTN as well as how much more they could’ve made in the B12 over that time period.
But they roughly get $51.1M in 2018. Doubling up isn’t too bad for one year.
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/nebraska-on-track-for-big-payday-in-maryland-s-larger/article_48adc24b-44f6-5bd8-ae62-3affc90e4c86.html
Meanwhile, UMD got $36.1M in year 1 but that was really $24.5M in payout plus an $11.6M advance from future payouts. RU got roughly $10M in year 1. All the initial payouts were based on what the school was scheduled to receive in their prior conference when the negotiations took place and will slowly ramp up over 6 years.
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This coming year, Rutgers will get $11 million from the B1G. Starting in a $40 million hole compared to other teams in the league is probably not a good way to become more competitive.
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Well, the real gap is bigger than that. USA Today’s AD database for 2014-15 says OSU had $167.2M in revenue compared to $70.6M for RU. The new TV deal will only slightly widen the advantage for a few years in terms of percentages. Once RU gets a full share, that should make a huge difference to them while it’s diminishing returns for the big boys in the B10.
167.2/70.6 = 2.37
192/71 = 2.70 (OSU gets a bump of roughly $25M over what they made in 2015)
110.6/70.6 = 1.57
192/110.6 = 1.74
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http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2017/06/its_official_rutgers_got_a_lousy_deal_from_the_big.html
Here’s more from the RU POV.
Still, four and a half years later, it is impossible not to look at the financial details and not conclude that Delany gave Rutgers a lousy deal — and it’s one that is making it harder for Rutgers to build the infrastructure necessary to truly compete in its new league.
Big Ten rival Michigan revealed this week that, thanks to the league’s new TV contract, it is expecting a payout of $51.1 million from the conference in 2017-18. That is the same chunk of cash that Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois and the rest will add to their coffers.
But not Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are projected to get just $11.6 million. As the athletic department races to build the facilities needed to compete in the conference, it will receive just one-fifth of the revenue that its well-heeled rivals are banking.
That will change in the coming years, of course. Rutgers will get $14.9 million in 2018-19 and $19.3 million in 2019-20, and then — finally — it will get a full share of that revenue pie in 2020-21.
All will be forgotten then. But if that projected $51.1 million payout stays the same the next three years, the 11 established conference members (not counting other relative newcomers Maryland and Nebraska) will have pocketed $177 million more over the six-year transitional period than Rutgers.
Given that the league’s new $2.64 billion TV deal probably doesn’t happen without the foothold in the New York market that Rutgers gave the Big Ten Network, you could argue that the 78-0 loss to Michigan is not the most lopsided result for the Scarlet Knights since joining the conference.
“In terms of the financial integration, there’s the academic, there’s the competitive, and there’s the financial. And those deals were agreed upon at the time,” Delany said last summer when asked about potentially renegotiating the deal. “They’re all a little bit different (between Rutgers, Maryland and Nebraska). Everybody was kept whole from where they came.
“But the deals that were negotiated were all negotiated on the basis of keep us whole, keep you whole, and after six years of being a member of the Big Ten, you’ll then become a full financial member.”
I will again point out that conference revenue is only 1 piece of the puzzle. RU had $71M in revenue in 2014-15 despite getting only about $10M from the B10. Over 6 years, RU will have over $420M in revenue. $177M would be an extra 42%. That’d be great for RU but it’s not the disaster Politi paints it as. It’s not like RU would have that money without being in the B10. And how about the billions of dollars in the future RU will make that the AAC could never have paid them?
RU got the same sort of deal as NE and UMD. They were coming from a much lower starting point financially, though, so they stayed low for 6 years. They could’ve tried to negotiate a better deal. But I’ll also note it isn’t the school complaining, just a local writer.
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Here is a slightly different view of the same issue. Most RU fans do not take Steve Politi that seriously. https://www.onthebanks.com/2017/6/17/15821874/big-ten-fans-new-favorite-pastime-hating-rutgers-steve-politi-michigan-indiana-television-espn-fox
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Penn State has been in the Big Ten for more than a quarter-century (a few years for its other sports before football came on board in 1993) and has won national titles in multiple sports, notably wrestling and men’s and women’s volleyball. Despite the Sandusky scandal and a usually lackluster men’s basketball program, it’s earned acceptance from its B1G brethren. (It also helps that PSU is located in rural, semi-midwestern State College, not near Philadelphia and the I-95 corridor.)
Maryland entered the conference with a legitimate big-time tradition, including being a national power in football in the early 1950s, with 61 years of ACC experience and NCAA championships in men’s and women’s basketball. It’s dominated the B1G in women’s hoops and both lacrosse programs, and aside from wrestling has been at least competitive in everything else.
In contrast, Rutgers has had a lot of catching up to do, and it’s not something you can achieve overnight. I recall when the Knights played Alabama at the Meadowlands in 1980, Crimson Tide fans wondered if Rutgers was an Ivy League school (it had Ivies on its football schedule as late as 1981) or had spring practice. The Big East never really had a football culture, as the sport was perceived as taking a backseat to hoops, which Rutgers has struggled in (at least on the men’s side) for the past quarter-century. Since joining the B1G, Rutgers has remained at the bottom of Director’s Cup standings for both the conference and among P5 schools. No wonder there’s resentment from most of its new rivals.
Expect Rutgers — a fine academic fit for the Big Ten; if expansion had strictly been sports-related, Syracuse would’ve been Maryland’s partner — to need another generation to build a truly big-time program, both in infrastructure and fan culture. It won’t happen overnight, and it’ll need a change of mindset as much as money.
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vp19,
I think there are several factors.
1. Many (most?) B10 fans didn’t want to expand past 12. NE got a pass because many people wanted to finally have divisions and a CCG like the SEC and others were doing but few people wanted to further dilute the rivalries by adding more newbies.
2. Many (most?) B10 fans didn’t want the conference to expand out of the midwest. PSU felt the blow back for that, too. Again, NE got a pass because they fit better culturally.
3. Adding the east coast is even worse to them because the midwest has endured unending stereotypes and put downs from easterners since the midwest formed. RU receives all of this ire because they claim to bring NYC, the bastion of midwestern mocking.
4. RU has been terrible at everything except academics. Almost every sports team is not just bad but epically bad compared to the rest of the B10. The AD couldn’t stop having scandals. If you can’t win, you’re at least expected to be competent at something and not bring negative attention to yourself.
That’s 4 major strikes against RU to many fans. UMD hasn’t gotten as much hate because they’ve had the cover of RU and because they are better athletically and not linked to NYC.
The good news for RU is that time heals many wounds. Presumably their teams will improve as the money flows in the near future. That will help a lot. People will also get used to having 14 teams after a while, including RU and UMD. Remember, people in their 40s were in college when the Big Ten still had 10 members. That means most B10 fans are from the 10 team era. Give it a generation and feelings will be different as many fans will have grown up with all 14 schools as members and the others will have had time to get used to it.
Things that could speed the process:
1. RU becoming competitive sooner
2. No-division scheduling so old rivalries are renewed
3. Extending the season so 10 B10 games is reasonable
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Jersey Bernie,
“Here is a slightly different view of the same issue. Most RU fans do not take Steve Politi that seriously.”
Bernie, I didn’t mean to imply that Politi speaks for RU itself or all of its fans. Some of the fans, sure, but maybe/probably not even the majority on this issue.
I actually linked the article more for the numbers he had in the piece. The annual payouts to RU and the total amount they will have “paid” for their buy in are useful.
I figure UMD will end up paying about $70M less (they’re getting about $15M per year more for 6 years but had the $31.3M ACC exit fee vs RU’s $11.5M fee). But RU got to take much bigger steps up athletically and academically by changing conferences and they got a ton of free publicity they never would have gotten in the AAC thanks to the B10. I think that balances out.
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I believe that the overwhelming majority of Rutgers fans are thrilled to be in the B1G. There are always a few clowns or trolls who think that Rutgers should be playing D3 sports.
While the payout terms are annoying, it is just part of the deal. Very few people actually resent it.
All rational RU fans appreciate that membership in the B1G is more than athletics.
The biggest paper in NJ is the Star-Ledger. A number of years ago, the Ledger was one of the top 20 papers in the country based on circulation.
One ongoing issue for Rutgers fans is the very strong belief that the Ledger is very much anti-Rutgers sports. There are a couple of writers who are pro RU, but there is certainly no “homerism” at all. Steve Politi, the author of the article, is definitely not viewed as a supporter of RU sports.
As one example, for some unknown reason, the sports writers at the Ledger think that everything that happened with Jarbrill Peppers is a huge Rutgers story and they put every Peppers story in the Rutgers section of NJ.com, their web site.
If they wanted to cover Peppers as a former NJ high school player, go for it.
On the other hand, a lot of RU fans view the concentration on Peppers and making that a Rutgers story to be really annoying and that is typical of the Ledger.
I do not know about other B1G schools, but I would imagine that most of them are supported by the major newpapers in their area.
I follow the Connecticut papers and the big ones (Hartford Courant, New Haven Register, and Conn Post) all are are pro UConn.
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I think you’ll find lots of B10 fans that believe the local paper is against the home team. The Detroit Free Press is hated by many, for example. I think part of that is the access of the local guys to all the negative news and their willingness to cover it.
I’m not saying or implying you’re wrong about the Star-Ledger, either, as I’ve heard that comment about it from other RU fans. I’m just saying you may be over-rating how popular the local papers are elsewhere. Fans tend to see the worst in the coverage and ignore all the positive and neutral coverage.
As for Peppers stories getting a lot of coverage in the RU section, I think that’s actually a good thing. I think their logic is that the story is a combo of local boy makes good (something they love to cover) and its a fellow B10 team so they need to cover it because they recognize there are CFB fans to cater to now. They don’t have a more general “College Football” section to put it under (at least not on their website), so where do you think it should be? I think they use the RU football page as their generic CFB page, too.
They also have the problem of almost nothing positive to cover at RU during the season. The team was terrible. Maybe they just wanted to have something positive to say for once, even if it was about another team’s player. I’d also suggest that RU fans give the paper some time. They aren’t used to covering major CFB. It takes time to figure out what the fans want.
And let’s be honest, every media outlet seemed to cover Peppers non-stop last season despite him not actually doing all that much on the field on defense. Last year he had 66 tackles, 13 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 interception and 1 pass defended in 12 games. Of those, 25 tackles, 7.5 TFL and 2.0 sacks came in the 3 OOC games. He had 41 tackles, 5.5 TFL and 1 sack in the remaining 9 games he played.
Just for comparison, here are stats for OSU’s starting OLB and S last year (13 games) who were elite players but didn’t get nearly the level of attention:
Jerome Baker (OLB) – 83 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 2 INTs
Malik Hooker (S) – 74 tackles, 5.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 7 INTs, 4 passes defended
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And just to show you that it isn’t just the S-L, the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s OSU page today has a story about 2 local recruits that just committed to UC as the third story on the OSU page. And they do have separate pages for “B10 and Recruiting” as well as “College” in general.
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BTW, Maryland stayed in-house for baseball, promoting assistant Rob Vaughn after Szefc left for Virginia Tech (and a big boost in salary with a promise of improved facilities in Blacksburg): https://www.testudotimes.com/2017/6/15/15784790/rob-vaughn-baseball-head-coach-search-hire
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Made me wonder what Stanford was doing to replace 41 year coach.
Answer: look across the bay.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.sfgate.com/collegesports/amp/David-Esquer-introduced-as-Stanford-baseball-coach-11234586.php
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With the budget woes at Cal, you’d have to think almost all of their coaches will jump ship at the first decent offer. A few sports are safe (football, MBB, multiple women’s teams for Title IX reasons) but everyone else has to fear losing their job soon.
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Jon Wilner talking P12N and money (ccrider’s favorite thing).
This column is based on two things from last week – an interview with the outgoing head of the P12N and the announcement that the B10 will distribute $51.1M per school next year.
Yes, the items are related. Both are about money.
Yes, the Hotline keeps close track of Pac-12 money, for three reasons:
1) It’s all about the money.
2) Even when they say it’s not all about the money, it’s all about the money.
3) The conference itself, so transparent and proactive on so many issues, is extraordinarily guarded about the finances of its operations.
It only provides what federal law requires it to provide, and not a nugget more.
…
First, the head scratcher: Murphy-Stephans, who’s leaving her post at the end of this month, did a Q&A with Cablefax, an industry website.
[LINK – http://www.cablefax.com/programming/pac-12-networks%5D
As noted previously, she has been unfairly criticized for the Pac-12 Networks’ modest distribution nationally and the DirecTV impasse. The obstacles — specifically, the cost and structure of the P12Nets — were in place before Murphy-Stephans (or her predecessor, Gary Stevenson) took over.
But three comments jumped out from the Cablefax Q&A, and all three speak to the heart of the frustration fans and campuses have experienced with the P12Nets:
*** Murphy-Stephans says that “no athletic director or administrator was ever told the Pac-12 Networks would deliver the same or more revenue than what its peer conferences are currently getting from their networks.”
My understanding is that this is essentially true: Commissioner Larry Scott sold the idea of the P12Nets to the presidents/chancellors as a means of: gaining exposure for the Olympic sports; guaranteeing all football and men’s basketball games would be available nationally; and creating a long-term investment that would return money to the campuses.
Becoming a Big Ten Network-esque cash cow? That was not promised, as far as I know.
However, the assumption on both the conference and campus sides was that the P12Nets would be significantly more profitable than it has been to date. So the comment, while true, belies a greater failing
*** Murphy-Stephans says the P12Nets were “profitable in year one.”
While the networks may have turned a slight profit from operations — and Scott has said as much — it doesn’t begin to tell the full story.
…
Well, that meant the schools had to buy back the Tier 3 rights from multimedia partners that brokered the deals (i.e., Learfield and IMG).
The Hotline has addressed this matter several times in past years but it’s worth repeating: Many schools owe $1 million (+/-) annually to IMG and Learfield for many years.
From the standpoint of gross dollars, Murphy-Stephans is correct: The P12Nets were profitable in Year One.
From a net dollars standpoint — when you include the $1 million/yr owed by schools for the Tier 3 buyback used to create P12Nets inventory — then the P12Nets were absolutely not profitable in Year One.
*** In response to a question about the profitability of the P12Nets relative to its Big Ten and SEC counterparts, Murphy-Stephans places a significant amount of responsibility for the revenue on the schools:
“There are other sources of revenue. There’s revenue from the NCAA based on the revenue-generating sports and how well each university performs in the football postseason and men’s basketball postseason. That’s a significant source of revenue for universities.
“If the universities are not performing well in postseason play compared to other Power Five conferences or other conferences in general or other schools, there will be a revenue gap. If ticket sales are less than other conferences, there will be a significant gap. Then there’s merchandise sales and there’s multimedia rights with third-party rightsholders. So, all of those contribute to the gap.”
…
“Yes, Pac-12 Networks is one factor. It certainly shouldn’t be called out. I don’t think it’s fair in any way to call out Pac-12 Networks as the source of the deficiency the universities or maybe those particular athletic directors or administrators are citing.”
One could make that case, I suppose, but remind me: Which revenue stream has increased by the greatest percentage over the past decade?
It’s the media rights — the one revenue stream controlled by the conference.
The jump in the value of live sports far exceeds the jump in value of, say, merchandise sales or multimedia rights, and it’s not even close.
And the conference created a business model for the P12Nets that is generating far less revenue than the models used by other conferences.
That’s why the P12Nets are being “called out.” Because media rights is where the money is … and where the Pac-12 money isn’t.
(Not only is distribution lagging without the leverage provided by a partner, but the expenses for operating a wholly-owned, seven-feed network are extraordinary. Those expenses, in turn, helped establish the initial subscriber fee that DTV refuses to pay.)
…
All of which brings us to the jaw-dropping news from last week: The report that Big Ten will send $51.1 million to each campus starting in 2018.
…
Which means the Hotline needs to update the FY18 distribution projections made last month:
Big Ten: $51.1 million
SEC: $45+ million
Big 12: $37.5 million (does not include Tier 3 rights)
Pac-12: $32.5 million
That’s not a pretty sight for the Pac-12, which is getting lapped even by the Big 12 when Tier 3 rights are added to the mix.
The dollar disparity is crucial from a competitive standpoint (recruiting budgets, coaching staffs salaries and capital expenditures).
In regard to the Big Ten specifically (Pac-12 presidents/chancellors view the B1G as their one true peer/rival academically and through the Rose Bowl relationship):
The distribution gap is essentially $19 million per school, or a $228 million, single-year conference-wide deficit.
…
Now, Scott has been fairly adamant that the P12Nets business model is right for the long haul, because 100 percent ownership of content 1) allows the conference to “be nimble” (his phrase) in a rapidly-changing landscape of technology and consumer behavior, and 2) will provide great flexibility when the Tier 1 deals expire.
In the meantime, it appears, the Pac-12 will get flattened in the revenue game — unless something changes.
The Tier 1 deals can’t change. The only thing that can change is the P12Nets business model.
Will seeing the whopping numbers … the Big Ten handing out $51.1 million to its campuses … the $19 million/per year/per school disparity in distribution … prompt the Pac-12 chancellors/presidents to insist on an equity sale?
(And would an equity sale in the next two or three years bring maximum value for a network that is viewed as less than a roaring success?)
It’s far beyond my scope to guess what the bosses might be thinking.
You don’t have to agree with Wilner about the P12N’s business model, but it’s significant if people on the campuses are unhappy (as he claims).
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“However, the assumption on both the conference and campus sides was that the P12Nets would be significantly more profitable than it has been to date. So the comment, while true, belies a greater failing”
That greater failing being to not meeting a reporters understanding of others supposed (poor) assumptions about what was explicitly stated – maximizing revenue not the primary goal of the network
“All of which brings us to the jaw-dropping news from last week: The report that Big Ten will send $51.1 million to each campus starting in 2018.”
Predictions were 46-48M based on new T1 contract, not a ginormous jump in BTN distribution. I’m sure it is predicted to rise, but please…
“The Tier 1 deals can’t change.”
Except when they do (see: B12), and particularly upon expiration which the B1G’s was/is and new contract signed (reflected in the new payout forecasts). Remember the shock when PAC had highest income first year of current contract?
“Will seeing the whopping numbers … prompt the Pac-12 chancellors/presidents to insist on an equity sale?”
They declined 11-0 (WSU abstained) less than a year ago.
True Wilner: “2) Even when they say it’s not all about the money, it’s all about the money.”
Unless it actually isn’t.
Something Jon simply can’t fathom in spite of the evidence of forgoing multi millions by not taking the “simple” step of the equity sale he favors.
“You don’t have to agree with Wilner about the P12N’s business model,”
Is it reasonable to expect the PAC to be near the financial equal of the B1G, or the SEC on a consistent basis?
“…but it’s significant if people on the campuses are unhappy (as he claims).”
He’s been saying that since shortly after he predicted OU/OkSU to the PAC was a done deal in ’11 or ’12 (whatever year that was).
To be fair to him, I agree that not adding them was dumb…if it was in fact the PAC that stopped it. Rumors had OU planning on using offer as leverage at B12 meetings rather than beginning steps to change affiliation. PAC heard that. Offer pulled. At midnight eastern time. So I’m not convinced OU was really leaving.
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ccrider55,
“That greater failing being to not meeting a reporters understanding of others supposed (poor) assumptions about what was explicitly stated – maximizing revenue not the primary goal of the network”
I think that’s unfair. If he has sources at the P12 and on campuses that told/are telling him they expected more profit then they are getting so far, is he supposed to ignore that? You can still have primary goals separate from maximizing revenue and expect more profit than the P12N is producing. Just because it isn’t the primary goal doesn’t mean they have no expectations whatsoever.
“Predictions were 46-48M based on new T1 contract, not a ginormous jump in BTN distribution. I’m sure it is predicted to rise, but please…”
???
He started his piece by saying there were 2 big pieces of news he wanted to discuss that were related because they were about money and this was item #2. He didn’t say anything about BTN causing the jump for the B10 or the P12N being the sole reason for the gap from the P12 to the B10.
“Except when they do (see: B12), and particularly upon expiration which the B1G’s was/is and new contract signed (reflected in the new payout forecasts).”
He said this in the context of the next 7 years, the duration of the current contract. It’s highly unusual for a TV deal to change without a major event like expansion.
“They declined 11-0 (WSU abstained) less than a year ago.”
Which doesn’t answer his question because the numbers were theoretical back then. I think he’d tell you he fully expects the answer to still be no, but it’s still a reasonable question for a writer to ask (in my opinion).
“True Wilner: “2) Even when they say it’s not all about the money, it’s all about the money.”
Unless it actually isn’t.
Something Jon simply can’t fathom in spite of the evidence of forgoing multi millions by not taking the “simple” step of the equity sale he favors.”
Except the P12 has chased dollars in so many other ways (all the weeknight games, for example). Plus he follows the AD budgets for the public schools so he knows the stress at places like Cal. With the continual drops in state funding, schools are going to have to make tough choices about subsidizing their ADs. It isn’t about the money for everyone (USC, Stanford, OR), but it has to be for some of them.
“Is it reasonable to expect the PAC to be near the financial equal of the B1G, or the SEC on a consistent basis?”
Please show me one time when he has claimed that should be the goal? He has always acknowledged that the P12 has to lag because they have fewer diehard fans. That doesn’t mean that it’s acceptable for the gap to grow infinitely large.
“He’s been saying that since shortly after he predicted OU/OkSU to the PAC was a done deal in ’11 or ’12 (whatever year that was).”
Does that make him wrong? If he’s still hearing complaints is he supposed to not mention it? I’ll agree that if he’s still talking about complaints from 5 years ago then he should drop it.
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“You can still have primary goals separate from maximizing revenue and expect more profit than the P12N is producing. Just because it isn’t the primary goal doesn’t mean they have no expectations whatsoever.”
I don’t think it’s unfair to disparage characterizing a secondary goal with no assurance of $ numbers as a “greater” failure due to disappointment of some on campuses. When have you heard anyone say they wouldn’t prefer more, from Alabama to Alcorn St?
“I think he’d tell you he fully expects the answer to still be no, but it’s still a reasonable question for a writer to ask (in my opinion).”
Then it doesn’t mesh with his “it’s always about the money” theory. It’s dead horse abuse.
“Except the P12 has chased dollars in so many other ways (all the weeknight games, for example).”
Which was done to improve income (surpassed their hopes at the time), and enable a conf net with a format of their choosing.
“That doesn’t mean that it’s acceptable for the gap to grow infinitely large.”
That also doesn’t mean it’s the conf net that suddenly caused a huge lag. The new B1G T1 deal is the primary cause of the forecast disparity.
He’s a bit like the NCAA. If a king gets caught, some 1aa is going to get hammered. If state budgets and T1 contract are causing concerns he blames a conf net that even at BTN or higher payouts wouldn’t halve the beginning forecast disparity.
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ccrider55,
“I don’t think it’s unfair to disparage characterizing a secondary goal with no assurance of $ numbers as a “greater” failure due to disappointment of some on campuses. When have you heard anyone say they wouldn’t prefer more, from Alabama to Alcorn St?”
I’ve never heard anyone from the B10 say they were disappointed with the BTN payout nor anyone from the SEC complain about the SECN payout.
What I don’t get is why you put the blame on Wilner if he’s reporting what people are telling him. He’s also cutting through the spin the former network head (and Scott among others) used in claiming it was profitable in year 1 when that’s only if you ignore the buyback costs. He said she’s technically correct but that the spin is hiding the truth (what he called the “greater failing”) that it really lost money in the big picture.
You give him no credit for the multiple disclaimers he gave.
As noted previously, she has been unfairly criticized for the Pac-12 Networks’ modest distribution nationally and the DirecTV impasse. The obstacles — specifically, the cost and structure of the P12Nets — were in place before Murphy-Stephans (or her predecessor, Gary Stevenson) took over
…
My understanding is that this is essentially true: Commissioner Larry Scott sold the idea of the P12Nets to the presidents/chancellors as a means of: gaining exposure for the Olympic sports; guaranteeing all football and men’s basketball games would be available nationally; and creating a long-term investment that would return money to the campuses.
Becoming a Big Ten Network-esque cash cow? That was not promised, as far as I know.
He’s just saying they should drop the spin and admit they lost a little money in year 1. There’s no shame in that with startup costs and the primary goal being exposure rather than profit. He just wants a more honest statement of the network’s financial success.
“Then it doesn’t mesh with his “it’s always about the money” theory. It’s dead horse abuse.”
He’s dealing with sports. Sports are always about the money because it takes money to be competitive. The presidents have to consider a bigger picture but Wilner and his readers don’t.
“That also doesn’t mean it’s the conf net that suddenly caused a huge lag.”
He has literally never claimed that the P12N was to blame. All he has ever said is that the P12N is the one thing they control and thus that they could change. They don’t have any other cards they can play.
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Could the semi merger of the B1G and the PAC12 be back on the table?
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I don’t think so. It only makes sense for MBB and a handful of other sports due to the travel costs. I don’t think you can have it make sense in football without diluting it greatly. It would have to be something like 4-6 games per season and we already play 2-3 game per season. If a 13th game gets added, then it might make a lot more sense.
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Also, in spite of the B1G’s Rose Bowl Bromance with the Pac-12, why would the B1G want to subsidize the Pac. The B1G has proven to be all about business. Ask Rutgers. I’m sure Rutgers doesn’t want an even smaller piece of the pie in order to benefit Washington State.
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It would never reduce payments. Whether or not it improved WSU (or the PAC) to a larger % is independent of the analysis of whether it would be advantageous to the B1G.
RU will be a getting full payouts at the time agreed upon when accepted.
I doubt it happens. The PAC screwed up when the opportunity was there and unless, as Brian said, a 13th reg season game is allowed it’s unlikely to reappear.
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http://intermatwrestle.com/articles/18336
To cleanse ccrider’s palate, here’s an article about the state of NCAA wrestling.
The total number of wrestlers is up over the past 15 years with the growth at D-II and D-III levels topping the reduction in D-I. But if you start from 2002, then D-I is doing fine too.
The number of programs has stayed about the same but the size of each team has grown. D-I has lost teams but D-II has gained them.
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Glad a kind of opportunity is expanding, but it’s discouraging D1 isn’t.
Boise St dropped wrestling, claiming money to be saved. But adding baseball at over three times the cost. Cite summer minor league attendance as reachable. College baseball starts in Feb. and ends in May/June. Been to Boise in Feb, Mar, or Apr? Good luck…there’s a reason few northern mountain schools play.
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It’ll be a bit chilly, sure. But they’re used to it so maybe it helps them in conference games. None of the other wrestling schools were particularly near them, either.
I agree it doesn’t make sense on the surface, but maybe they have numbers to show it does make sense.
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http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/baseball/d1/2017/cws
College world series update.
Top bracket:
#1 OrSU has advanced to the semifinal round without losing. They’ll face tonight’s winner of #4 LSU vs FSU. It’s double elimination, so OrSU would have to lose two in a row not to make the finals.
Bottom bracket:
#3 UF has advanced to the semifinals undefeated. They get the winner of tomorrow night’s game between #6 TCU and #7 UL. UF would have to lose two in a row not to advance.
The finals start Monday night.
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Has anyone checked in on Alan? The Tigers have made the final four.
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Maybe he’s in Naha?
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…Omaha…
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FSU continued their streak with now 22 CWS appearances without a national title. That’s in 55 NCAA tourney appearances.
Only 2 schools have more CWS appearances (UT with 35 and 6 titles, Miami with 25 and 4 titles). The bets CWS team is USC with 12 titles in 21 appearances.
The next most futile team is Clemson with 12 appearances and no title.
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An absolutely amazing stat.
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Mike – I’m fine, but I’d be doing a lot better if my Tigers had won that marble game against those pesky beavers a few days ago. We’ll have the Cubs 1st round pick on the mound tomorrow, so we have a chance. If we win on Friday, who knows what will happen on Saturday?
If my Tigers make it to the championship series. I’ll be in Omaha next week.
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Who’d start on Saturday?
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Probably Caleb Gilbert.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_474f2232-56e4-11e7-9072-c3d9a8f75d4e.html
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@Alan – glad to hear it. My time at the CWS ended Tuesday, so I’ll be rooting your Tigers on from afar. That Monday night game was absolutely brutal.
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https://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2017/6/21/15831422/2017-nhl-expansion-draft-results-picks-vegas-golden-knights-roster-trades
This is lesser draft week. Last night the Las Vegas Golden Knights had their expansion draft where they had to take 1 player from each NHL team.
The team made several trades (agreeing to not take certain eligible players in exchange for draft picks) plus they made trade actual players now. The actual NHL draft starts tomorrow night.
In addition, the NBA draft is tonight. Expect a bunch of freshmen and foreigners to dominate as usual.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/kansas-planning-to-spend-300-million-to-renovate-its-stadium/
KU is going to spend $300M to renovate its football stadium. How many years is it going to take for the MBB team to pay that off?
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Story about Rutgers night at a game at Yankee Stadium, in furtherance of the Yankees-Rutgers partnership. Whether Syracuse or UConn football fans agree, Rutgers really is the only NYC metro area college football team. https://vk.com/videos396511948?z=video396511948_456239116%2Fpl_396511948_-2
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OK, ignore that last link that goes to a Russian porn site. Try this https://www.onthebanks.com/2017/6/21/15843292/rutgers-takes-manhattan-big-ten-yankee-stadium-chris-ash-jimmy-fallon-tonight-show-maryland-football
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https://www.google.com/amp/amp.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/the-state-worker/article157688724.html
Convenient that UCLA, USC, and Stanford play Texas schools outside the state this year.
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Excellent point, ccrider. You are mentioning football. Hard to believe that no CA state schools have no basketball games or other sports in any of the banned states.
I guess this means that the Longhorns cannot be welcomed into the PAC under this policy.
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The list of banned states now includes Texas, Alabama, Kentucky, South Dakota, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina and Tennessee. The possibilities for problems are endless. Could be fun to watch.
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I’m betting that college athletics doesn’t fall under the banned state-funded travel. After all, the ADs produce more than enough revenue to cover their own travel costs and student fees aren’t state funding either.
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I don’t think this is about the origin of funds. It’s about the destination, broadly (the State). I doubt UT and other schools advocates for the objectionable policies.
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It kind of has to be about the origin of funds, doesn’t it? If it isn’t state-funded then the ban shouldn’t apply. Usually these sorts of bans are for direct government employees. I’m not even sure if universities have been asked to stop professors from going places.
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Everything at a state U is state controlled. Can you REPRESENT your employer against his wishes, at an event or what not, simply because you can front the funds to do so? They have created a list of exceptions, but I don’t see college athletics on it.
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That’s actually not true, especially in athletics. But I wasn’t saying the schools would try to wiggle out from under state control, just that states with these sorts of bans don’t always apply it across the board on universities. It’s not like the law was quoted or even linked in the article.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article122451809.html
That’s their article from last December. It says more about the impact on college athletics and other areas.
But California’s public universities will have to avoid athletic competitions in a group of states that as of this week likely will include Mississippi, North Carolina and Tennessee, according to a memo from Attorney General Kamala Harris. The law also will block state employees from attending most conferences, and it will curtail other kinds of discretionary travel among state universities.
Both UC Berkeley and UCLA have high-profile football games scheduled in banned states next fall. The UCLA Bruins have an away game scheduled against the University of Memphis on Sept. 16. Cal’s Golden Bears play at the University of North Carolina on Sept. 2.
Neither California school plans to cancel its game, citing an exemption in the restrictions that allows them to fulfill commitments they made before Jan. 1.
Those September matchups may be the last time the California schools play in those states for a long time, unless laws change.
“Moving forward, however, the athletic department will not schedule future games in states that fail to meet the standards established by the new law,” UCLA spokesman Tod Tamberg said.
Also there was this:
California’s Department of Human Resources and attorney general’s office distributed memos last month outlining how they’d interpret the ban. Going forward, it will apply to states that adopt laws like North Carolina’s.
The Human Resources memo also says state employees cannot accept money from third party groups to pay for travel to the banned states. That means private sponsors could not pay to have experts from California colleges speak at conferences.
If the list of states gets too long, this could become a problem for professors and students in CA. Going to conferences is a vital part of the job and they have no control over where the major conferences for their specialty are held.
Also, here’s a link to the law in case anyone is interested:
https://oag.ca.gov/ab1887
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I e-mailed Jon Wilner to ask him about it.
His response:
“hi brian
any game that went under contract before the ban was in place will be honored — so ucla can play memphis and cal can play north carolina
i would assume that extends to the bowl games, because those are also contracted game
i’ll try to address it next week
appreciate the email”
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Brian:
Good to know.
Alan:
One more game…at least.
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I would think that any NCAA post-season game should also be exempt as a contracted game. If not, teams from CA schools could really suffer.
While I understand the idea behind the law, I think they risk making Californians suffer more than they hurt the other states. Academics and athletics tend to require travel all over the place. It’s a symbolic gesture that doesn’t accomplish much since the private sector spends much more on travel than the state ever will.
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I wouldn’t discount the power of symbolism. Especially when supported by recent court decisions (NC).
Invite Texas into conference and the politics follow. Former PAC admin I know said they’d probably been fortunate the P16 didn’t happen. UT ego is a pain, but Texas politics can be a highly resistant infection.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/06/23/alabama-game-to-go-on-against-fresno-state/103152852/
And here’s some more about it.
The impact on future games is unclear, however. A request for a legal opinion on whether public university sports’ travel is exempt has been filed with Becerra’s office, but no ruling has been issued.
Becerra is the CA AG. Clearly even people in the business aren’t sure how this works if they’re asking the AG to render a legal opinion.
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Another article on the travel ban with a significantly different interpretation than the Sacramento article.
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/06/california_bans_travel_to_alab.html#incart_most-comments
Why was travel to Alabama banned?
Each of the states included in the travel ban has recently passed laws involving LGBT rights. In Alabama’s case, it was the passage of a law allowing adoption agencies in the state to follow faith-based policies, including the option to not place children with gay couples.
In signing the law, Gov. Kay Ivey said it “ensures hundreds of children can continue to find ‘forever homes’ through religiously-affiliated adoption agencies.
“This bill is not about discrimination, but instead protects the ability of religious agencies to place vulnerable children in a permanent home,” the governor said.
And Kentucky, South Dakota and Texas?
South Dakota and Texas were included for passing adoption agency laws similar to that of Alabama’s. Kentucky was added to the list after state legislators passed a bill preventing school officials from punishing students for wearing religious messages on their clothes and expressing religious or political beliefs in homework, artwork and speeches.
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So Frank, any thoughts on the Butler trade? Are you ready to be a fan of a midwestern version of the 76ers? How many years of tanking are you willing to accept?
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http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/education/fond-memories-of-dorm-life-mizzou-to-rent-empty-rooms/article_1f864c60-6fe1-50a6-930b-2f9d92cc1b20.html
I’m sure we all remember the troubles that Mizzou was having recently. Well, due to declining freshman enrollment and other factors, the school has 7 empty dorms.
As part of a plan to get more revenue from housing, the school will start renting out dorm rooms on the weekends for people coming in to town for games or events.
But they still face major problems in other areas.
Starting this fall, families and fans can rent rooms in University of Missouri-Columbia residence halls for football games and other campus events.
The initiative is among those introduced Thursday by Mizzou leaders to the Board of Curators at their Columbia meeting as a means to offset the financial stress of declining freshman enrollment.
A website went live Wednesday night that allows people to book a two-room, four-bed suite for $120 per night. There’s an added cost for parking, according to the website.
Free high-speed wireless access is included, along with economy bed linens and towels.
…
Earlier this month, University of Missouri system President Mun Choi proposed more strictly enforcing the policy requiring freshmen to live in campus housing. He estimated that could generate $750,000 a year.
Mizzou chief operating officer Gary Ward on Thursday shared a longer-term plan to bolster the number of students living in residential halls to reach capacity by 2021 or 2022.
If the plan works, the dorm room rental program could end after a year or two.
Ward said moves such as easing the requirement for upperclassmen to have a meal plan and opening the door to transfer students to live on campus, they expect to fill the dorms progressively in the next few years.
…
In other recruitment efforts, Pelema Morrice, Mizzou’s vice provost for enrollment, shared with the curators plans to bring more National Merit Scholars and finalists to campus.
Missouri had more than 300 National Merit Scholar finalists this past academic year. Mizzou enrolled fewer than two dozen.
Morrice said Mizzou has struggled to compete with schools like the University of Alabama and the University of Oklahoma, which actively recruit those high-performing students and cover tuition costs.
“That’s expensive,” curator chairman and St. Louis attorney Maurice Graham said about the recruitment effort.
But he added, “Other universities compete for those good students, so we are going to get much more aggressive competing for these high-ranking students both in Missouri and out of Missouri.”
…
Interim chief financial officer Ryan Rapp stressed that the university system faces lingering budget cuts to meet the $100 million goal that system leaders required of the campuses this spring.
Leaders are weighing cuts that could consolidate and even do away with some academic programs. The timeline for completion varies by campus.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/19720649/2017-college-world-series-umpires-missed-chance-video-reversal-foul-ball-ncaa-says
The NCAA says the umps screwed up by not using video replay to overturn the foul ball call that was key to LSU’s win over OrSU.
College World Series umpires failed to review a third-inning play in the semifinal between Oregon State and LSU on Friday in which a ball hit the yellow padding beneath the left-field foul pole — in fair territory.
The NCAA says umpires should have used the replay system for the call, which was integral to the Tigers’ 3-1 win and the outcome that forced a Game 3 finale.
…
Protocol called for the crew chief to initiate a replay review, an onsite NCAA spokesman said. Video replay has been used at the CWS since 2012. It was instituted in the regular season this year.
Coaches may not challenge the call of an umpire, as in Major League Baseball, but they can ask for the crew chief to start the review process. Casey did not request a review on Kwan’s hit.
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Could have been at worst 1 in and second and third with one out. Regrettable, but mistakes happen. Replay is still a people operated tool, not a guarantee. How you respond to them is bigger than the mistake. It’s just a guess as to how the inning may have played out. That’s just the coach in me. Still a good game, and sets up a rubber match.
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This why the CFB version is better, though. Every play gets reviewed so you don’t miss glaring errors like that. Now LSU ends up advancing to the championship and OrSU has to wonder about that play all off season.
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Agree, but FB like replay still would have human interpretation and instigation (which umps had the authority to to in this case, but…) I’d really like to see automated strike zone before enlarging replay. How can players develop discipline at the plate when the zone varies by day, umpire, L vs R, and even during game? 2-1 with a man on is way different than 1-2. But it’s usually forgotten with the ensuing pitch. Mistaken calls frequently become “invisible”, but have none the less effected the game.
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ccrider55,
“Agree, but FB like replay still would have human interpretation and instigation (which umps had the authority to to in this case, but…)”
Yes, but under CFB rules someone would’ve automatically checked the foul call. It wouldn’t depend on umps deciding to second-guess themselves. That’s my point. There’s still a chance they reach the wrong decision, sure, but it’s much less if you force someone to watch the video of every close call. Heck, I bet software could check the video for you most of the time.
“I’d really like to see automated strike zone before enlarging replay.”
I’m with you, but umps would rather die than cede the right to call balls and strikes poorly. And many old school fans would back them on it.
“How can players develop discipline at the plate when the zone varies by day, umpire, L vs R, and even during game? 2-1 with a man on is way different than 1-2. But it’s usually forgotten with the ensuing pitch. Mistaken calls frequently become “invisible”, but have none the less effected the game.”
The sheer number of called strike 3s on phantom strikes amazes me. Certain pitchers can miss by 6+ inches and still get the call. It’s why the Braves made 14 straight postseasons but only won 1 title. They didn’t get those calls against the Yankees.
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This sounds promising for Illinois adding hockey:
http://www.fightingillini.com/news/2017/6/23/general-illinois-first-school-included-in-hockey-study-funded-by-nhl.aspx
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No problem, as long as the Illini get at least a $60 or $70 million dollar donation. The State of Illinois certainly has no money to pay for this.
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Why do people keep saying this? The State of Illinois never paid for college athletics. They are funded by athletic department revenue, student fees and private donations. Besides, it doesn’t matter if the state government is broke; Illinois still has lots of very rich alumni.
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Stephen,
Jersey Bernie says:
June 24, 2017 at 6:06 pm
No problem, as long as the Illini get at least a $60 or $70 million dollar donation. The State of Illinois certainly has no money to pay for this.
“Why do people keep saying this? The State of Illinois never paid for college athletics. They are funded by athletic department revenue, student fees and private donations. ”
They keep saying this because of the student fees. Adding a hockey team means a new arena plus a women’s sport or two for Title IX reasons. USA Today’s financial database show that the Illini ran a deficit on paper of $3.7M in 2014-15. That’s with the school providing $3.8M in subsidies. With ticket sales down, no AD is going to look to add a sport that requires an expensive new building and compensation sports while already running a deficit.
How long would it take the AD to pay off the building even assuming they could find a way to cover the day to day expenses involved? If a high revenue AD like PSU had to wait for a huge donation, so would the Illini.
“Besides, it doesn’t matter if the state government is broke; Illinois still has lots of very rich alumni.”
Perhaps, but are any willing to drop high 8 figures on hockey? Otherwise the AD will presumably stay focused on football and MBB.
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The Illinois AD is not stupid. He would not have been involved in a press conference about this if it were not a possibility. And did you notice that the NHL is looking to sponsor college hockey? So theoretically, that could alleviate some of the cost. Maybe they could partner with the university to use the ice arena to host a minor-league hockey team.
Also, Illinois is looking to receive around $50 million next year from the Big 10 after their new TV deals kick in. They will have more money to spend.
Is there a lot that would have to happen before Illinois adds a hockey program? Of course. But they wouldn’t be bothering with this study if they didn’t think it were possible and weren’t considering it.
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Stephen,
“The Illinois AD is not stupid. He would not have been involved in a press conference about this if it were not a possibility.”
Anything is possible, especially if someone wants to give $100M. Why wouldn’t a new AD welcome a free study into what it would take?
“And did you notice that the NHL is looking to sponsor college hockey?”
No, I read that they were helping pay for feasibility studies. There’s a huge gap between that and sponsoring it.
“So theoretically, that could alleviate some of the cost. Maybe they could partner with the university to use the ice arena to host a minor-league hockey team.”
The NHL has financial issues without spending money on college hockey. I’m not sure any of the other leagues need a mid-IL location, but it’s possible.
“Also, Illinois is looking to receive around $50 million next year from the Big 10 after their new TV deals kick in. They will have more money to spend.”
And other priorities to spend it on. Everything gets more expensive every year. Old facilities need renovations. Hockey is expensive. So are the balancing sports. Would the AD rather spend more on what he has or add 2-3 new sports and dilute the spending?
“Is there a lot that would have to happen before Illinois adds a hockey program? Of course. But they wouldn’t be bothering with this study if they didn’t think it were possible and weren’t considering it.”
All things are possible and they don’t have to be likely if someone else is willing to pay for the study. There’s a reason it took so long to get to 6 B10 hockey teams.
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There are also major PR issues. The finances of Illinois are such that there is serious discussion of state bankruptcy. If some major donor puts up the money so that neither the state nor students have to pay for the facilities, extra scholarships, (including Title IX implications), operating costs, etc., then I guess that it can work.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-26/bankruptcy-illinois-answer
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Bernie, the state is going bankrupt simply because the politicians are in a game of chicken. There are plenty of resources in Illinois; they are just not being allocated correctly. The Cubs, Bulls and Blackhawks are very successful (financially). Even the Bears are doing ok, despite being terrible for a long time. Downtown Chicago is in the middle of another boom and is setting new records for tourism every year. The University of Illinois’ endowment is very healthy and enrollment is up. It is the smaller state schools that are really suffering, but UofI is doing ok.
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>>Maybe they could partner with the university to use the ice arena to host a minor-league hockey team.<<
If you are going to start a hockey program, the last thing you want to do is also start a competitor.
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Mike, there were talks several years back of a minor league baseball team paying for improvements to the Illinois baseball stadium and sharing its use.
I think there is enough interest between the university and the community to support both a collegiate and a minor league team, especially if some of the players from the university team went on to play for the minor league team to stir up more local interest.
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Stephen,
“Bernie, the state is going bankrupt simply because the politicians are in a game of chicken.”
No, that’s really not true. The state has virtually no chance of being able to pay off their debts and the debt total just keeps rising. What they owe on pensions and bonds is not possible for the state to pay off. The politicians make things worse, but numbers are numbers.
“There are plenty of resources in Illinois; they are just not being allocated correctly.”
Experts on both sides say IL can’t pay all their debts.
“The Cubs, Bulls and Blackhawks are very successful (financially). Even the Bears are doing ok, despite being terrible for a long time. Downtown Chicago is in the middle of another boom and is setting new records for tourism every year.”
Good for them. How does that help the state pay off tens of billions of dollars of debt?
“The University of Illinois’ endowment is very healthy and enrollment is up. It is the smaller state schools that are really suffering, but UofI is doing ok.”
Schools hate spending their endowment but that’s what they’d have to do to add hockey unless there is a major donation.
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>>Mike, there were talks several years back of a minor league baseball team paying for improvements to the Illinois baseball stadium and sharing its use.
I think there is enough interest between the university and the community to support both a collegiate and a minor league team, especially if some of the players from the university team went on to play for the minor league team to stir up more local interest.<<
Its common for college baseball and minor league baseball teams to share facilities because the college baseball season ends so early. Those teams are not in competition with each other but since college hockey overlaps with most other league's seasons they will be. I've been a hockey season ticket holder for just one team and it can dominate your weekends. In a limited market already, I can't imagine many people buying season tickets for both. Trying to establish two teams in the same arena let alone same town is a recipe for failure.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/06/24/style-vs-safety-do-too-many-football-helmets-pose-a-risk/103163242/
The NCAA is concerned that wearing multiple helmets per season for aesthetic reasons is dangerous for players, so they are doing research.
In the NFL, this will be the fifth season in which players may only wear the one helmet. In 2013, the league’s Head, Neck and Spine Committee and the Player Safety Advisory Panel recommended that players no longer be given new helmets to match alternative uniforms. Any aesthetic alterations of the helmet can only be made with decals.
The concerns about switching helmets mostly involve fit. Helmets come in different sizes and are adjusted by equipment staffers to specific players in a few ways, depending on the manufacturer and style. Most Riddell helmets, one of the two most popular brands along with Schutt, use an inflatable bladder system to get just the right fit for safety and comfort. Some helmets have removable padding and others use straps.
…
Dr. Stefan Duma, a professor of engineering at Virginia Tech who has done extensive work on football helmet safety, does not see a safety hazard in multiple helmets.
“In the worst case, our research shows that fit is only a 5 percent issue. In lab testing with helmets way too tight and way too loose, you only change performance about 5 percent,” Duma said in an email. “The schools that can afford to have so many helmets also have a great deal of staff to help with this. In the end, I do not see it as a concern.”
Anderson said advances in helmet technology could support a one-helmet approach.
“There are in fact helmet manufacturers and folks trying to get to the point where they will literally do 3-D model of your head, with all the angles and the bumps, the indents, whatever it is, that is customized, form-fitted to your head and your head only,” he said. “They can do that, but I’m telling you the price right now would be prohibitive particularly if you were driven by having four or five helmets that match your outfit.”
Anderson said the competition committee also plans to look at whether changing shoes during a season compromises performance and safety.
I think it’s good that they are looking into it without making any rules right away. It may be a non-issue but it’s important to get evidence rather than assume.
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https://www.landof10.com/nebraska/expansion-back-fashion-nebraska-icon-tom-osborne-says-hes-talked-schools-whove-shown-interest-joining-big-ten
Tom Osborne talked a little bit about future B10 expansion.
“I don’t want to start jumping into that hornet’s nest where someone’s quoting me as saying, ‘Well, this school ought to join the Big Ten,’ ” Osborne said during a media tour in greater Des Moines to promote his TeamMates mentoring organization.
“I do know people that I’ve talked to in the past who maybe have some interest. And so I think the Big Ten is a viable option.”
…
Osborne politely declined to divulge specific schools and specific questions, but the Big 12 — Nebraska’s old neighborhood — continues to send up the occasional red flag of internal dysfunction. The Dallas-based conference scuttled expansion talks last summer after a dog-and-pony show that reportedly saw a chunk of candidates parade their wares, including, most notably, Houston, Cincinnati and UConn from the American Athletic Conference, and BYU, a football independent.
The Big 12’s grant of media rights deal runs through 2025. The Big Ten’s latest television agreements with FOX, ESPN and CBS reportedly run through 2023.
“First of all, you have to have instability in the league that a team is in for them to want to leave, and so that’s probably the biggest factor,” the 80-year-old Osborne continued. “But I would hesitate to say, ‘Well, the Big Ten ought to approach this team or that team.’ ”
…
Eleven of the Big Ten’s members reportedly were doled out the full share of $34.8 million each in the 2016 fiscal year, according to USA Today, and a San Jose Mercury News report last month estimated that a fully vested Nebraska program is projected to receive at least $38 million in 2017 and as much as $45 million in 2018.
Big 12 members reportedly got $28.45 million per school in 2016 and are projected to receive $34 million each in 2017 and $37.5 million apiece in 2018.
So, basically, yes. Given a choice, he’d recommend a similar move again. In a heartbeat.
“Oh yeah,” Osborne said. “Because of the disruptive factor in the Big 12.
“And we have a lot of friends in the Big 12 [in] a lot of the regent schools like Kansas and Kansas State and Iowa State.
“But it had become a little bit of a different league with the addition of the schools from the old Southwest Conference. And losing the Oklahoma game [annually], they went into the South Division and we’d wanted to play them every year, and that was never going to be a fact. And so, as a result, the Big Ten seemed like a logical move at that time.
“I think so far it’s worked well, and of course financially, it’s probably an improvement for Nebraska. I just wish we could win a few more championships. That would be helpful.”
…
Could 16 schools — imagine the Sooners and Longhorns or Sooners and Jayhawks in the West Division — be the next logical step?
“It could,” Osborne said with a smile. “I don’t know. It seems like if people throw enough money on the table, most anything is possible.”
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I imagine any school that aspires to be an option for the Big Ten has reached out him to find out details that might not necessarily be public. What’s the process like? How important is attribute X vs attribute Y? I don’t think its any indication of imminent realignment, unfortunately.
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No, nothing is imminent. Maybe around 2023 when the B10’s next TV deal starts and the B12 GoR is about to end. That would be the obvious window to look at.
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http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/calc-wp.pl?start=1869&end=2016&rpct=30&min=5&se=on&by=Wins
There should be some history made over the next couple of seasons. Right now MI is the only school with 900+ wins, but 4 schools are within 1 season of hitting 900 with 3 more not far behind.
All-time W leaders:
1. MI – 935
2. ND – 896
3. UT – 891
4. NE – 889
5. OSU – 886
6. AL – 878
7. OU – 872
8. PSU – 867
9. TN – 829
10. USC – 823
If current trends continue, OSU will move up to #2 in the next few years.
http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/calc-wp.pl?start=1869&end=2016&rpct=30&min=5&se=on&by=Win+Pct
A similar change is coming in W%.
All-time W% leaders:
1. MI – 0.730
2. ND – 0.728
3. OSU – 0.724
4. OU – 0.7211
5. AL – 0.7208
6. UT – 0.707
7. USC – 0.700
8. NE – 0.699
9. PSU – 0.686
10. FSU – 0.682
If current trends continue, OSU will move up to #2 in the next couple of years. AL, FSU and PSU are also climbing. NE is treading water lately (0.700 = 9.1-3.9 in 13 games).
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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/06/26/Media/ESPN-ACC-Network.aspx
The ACC Network is off and running with its first distribution deals.
The ESPN-owned conference channel recently secured its first carriage agreements with digital video providers, guaranteeing that the channel will be available to consumers when it launches in August 2019. The deals mark an important first step that comes as critics question the network’s viability in such a volatile media marketplace. ESPN would not identify the providers who agreed to a deal, saying it is with providers whose carriage deals run beyond 2019.
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Good article. Some other nuggets:
So far, PlayStation Vue, DirecTV Now, Sling TV, YouTube TV and Hulu have deals to carry ESPN programming. It’s not known which ones also will take the ACC Network, though it should be noted that ESPN’s parent, Disney, owns 30 percent of Hulu.
The ACC Network was part of a larger package of Disney-owned channels sold to some of these digital video providers. It’s not known how much ESPN is charging for the ACC Network, but it’s expected to be lower than the rates for the SEC Network (72 cents per subscriber per month, according to Kagan) or BTN (43 cents, according to Kagan). These early distribution deals are important for ESPN because they will exert pressure on larger distributors to cut similar deals or risk losing subscribers who want to watch ACC sports.
Whether bigger distributors push back on the ACC Network in an environment where pay-TV channels have been losing subscribers remains to be seen, but one of the first tests will come this fall when ESPN renegotiates its affiliate deal with cable operator Altice USA, formerly Cablevision. Altice USA primarily serves areas around New York City, and it is the one major distributor that doesn’t carry the SEC Network, another ESPN-owned conference channel that launched in 2014.
Between now and the ACC Network’s planned launch in 2019, ESPN also has affiliate deals coming up with Verizon Fios (at the end of 2018), Charter (mid-2019) and AT&T (late 2019), sources said.
…
Still, the ACC has prepared its stakeholders for tough distribution battles, especially in this climate.
The ACC’s presidents were joyous at the news last summer that ESPN was fully committed to an ACC Network, but at the same meeting they were dealt a word of caution. There will be skeptics about the launch of a linear channel, said Commissioner John Swofford and the league’s media consultant, Wasserman’s Dean Jordan.
As recently as last month, veteran media analysts like Neal Pilson and James Andrew Miller said ESPN’s round of about 100 layoffs should be reason for the network to re-evaluate an ACC Network. In fact, the layoffs prompted a May 3 conversation between Swofford and ESPN President John Skipper.
Later that day, Swofford wrote to his presidents and athletic directors with this message: Tune out the critics, the layoffs don’t affect us, our plans for a network are “full-steam ahead.”
…
At a meeting with his board of directors last February, Florida State AD Stan Wilcox said a new network could deliver as much new revenue as the SEC Network did in 2014 — about $7.5 million per school. The SEC Network staged the most successful launch in cable TV history with more than 60 million homes and delivered a profit of about $210 million in its first year. The SEC, like the ACC, shares all network profits 50-50 with ESPN. While such lofty expectations might seem a little over the top, other ACC ADs said they were going on the guidance they received from ESPN. “We’re not pulling these numbers out of thin air,” one ACC AD said. “This is what we’re being told.”
I’ll be amazed if the ACCN jumps out to the same sort of start as the SECN.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19718974/college-football-realignment-look-back-winners-losers
Now that some time has passed, ESPN.com looks at how each P5 conference as well as each P5 school that moved during realignment fared.
NEBRASKA
Joined Big Ten in: 2011
Record vs. league since joining: 31-18
How it’s worked out: It got the Cornhuskers out of a league that was on unstable footing at the time and into one that has been stable and strong. The Big Ten is currently second only to the SEC in per-school revenue distribution. and Nebraska is reaping those benefits. The athletic department revenue has risen significantly (it went from the $73 million to 74 million range at the end of last decade to over $100 million each in the 2015 and 2016 fiscal years), and donations are up, too. They’ve been competitive on the football field, regularly in the top 25, but perhaps haven’t had quite the success the fan base hopes for. Still, they’ve won at least nine games all but one season since joining the Big Ten.
…
MARYLAND
Joined Big Ten in: 2014
Record vs. league since joining: 8-17
How it’s worked out: Even though the Terps aren’t winning the Big Ten title in football, joining the league was still a big win for the athletic department. Maryland has won a league-high 25 conference championships in other sports since joining the Big Ten, including nine this year. The exposure Maryland has gotten from the Big Ten network has enhanced its brand and helped its operating budget, though the program has yet to share in the league’s full revenue because it does not become a full member until the 2019-20 school year. In spite of Maryland’s struggles competitively in football, the program still increased its attendance by 14 percent and season-ticket holders by 25 percent during the first year it was in the league. In 2015, Maryland led the Big Ten and was fifth in the nation in men’s basketball attendance. Coach D.J. Durkin took the team to a bowl game in his first season and lured in the nation’s No. 20 recruiting class, but there is still a long way to go to close the gap with the likes of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.
RUTGERS
Joined Big Ten in: 2014
Record vs. league since joining: 4-21
How it’s worked out: To understand it, you have to look beyond the win-loss record in football. Rutgers was underfunded before joining the Big Ten, but once it becomes a fully financially integrated member of the Big Ten in 2021, the athletic department will have the resources to finance the support it needs to become more competitive. Athletic director Patrick Hobbs doesn’t want to wait. He’s already overseen the opening of a new $2.5 million strength and conditioning center he says is “as good as any in the Big Ten,” and on Aug. 6, Rutgers will unveil its new $9 million practice fields. The athletic department is already working with architects on designs for a new locker room. Hobbs said that every coach he works with has told him they are seeing interest in Rutgers “from a quality of athlete above where it was in the past.” “When you say to a kid, ‘You’re going to play Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State every year,” he said, “that has an effect.” Rutgers still has to grow as an athletic brand, but it wouldn’t have had that opportunity in the Big East. “Our donors are responding in ways they frankly haven’t before,” said Hobbs. “We’re hitting historic levels in fundraising. All of that has me firmly in the belief we’re already on the road to success. … The folks who don’t think we belong in the Big Ten just aren’t paying attention, because we’re coming.”
…
Big Ten
Gained: Maryland, Rutgers, Nebraska
Lost: Nobody
How it’s worked out: The conference got exactly what it was looking for — which goes much deeper than football and basketball teams. Every new member was in a contiguous state, and the league was also looking to grow with institutions that were similar academically. Maryland, Rutgers and Nebraska have brought the Big Ten over 800,000 new alumni combined and hundreds of millions of dollars in federal research money. Commissioner Jim Delany wasn’t expecting any of these programs to come in and beat Alabama in in their first three years in the conference. Instead, the benefits of expansion have been measured on a broader scope. The league has taken advantage of a profitable market, with offices in D.C. and New York, and championship sites in both Baltimore and New York. The Big Ten also has a marketing agreement with the Yankees, and it has expanded its brand not just for athletes, but also prospective students.
And relevant to ongoing discussion between ccrider55 and I:
Pac-12
Gained: Colorado, Utah
Lost: Nobody
How it’s worked out: We’ll call them a winner for now, but it’s a precarious position if things don’t change, particularly when it comes to revenue, in the future. The conference took a home run swing at a Pac-16 that didn’t formulate but still added a pair of teams. Colorado was a football bottom feeder for its first five years in the league until it turned in a 10-4 campaign last year, which included a Pac-12 championship game appearance. Utah has fared better, finishing in the AP Top 25 each of the past three seasons and having four winning seasons in its first six. The conference is stable, it has quality programs in attractive locations, and early in the decade seemed to be ahead of the media-rights revenue curve. The latter part has changed. The Pac-12 Network suffered to get the kind of distribution that its Big Ten and SEC counterparts did, thus creating a revenue gap. The league paid out an average of $28.7 million to each school in fiscal year 2016 while the SEC distributed roughly $40 million per school and the Big Ten distributed nearly $35 million per school. “I think a lot of us, ADs especially, are concerned about this gap that’s growing in TV revenue [between the Pac-12 and] the Big Ten and the SEC,” Utah athletic director Chris Hill said. “We’re concerned we’re going to get priced out if we’re not careful.”
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http://usatodayhss.com/2017/bunchie-young-havon-finney-ncaa-scholarships-rule
Should the NCAA step in to protect kids from football scholarship offers? Recently multiple elementary school kids have been given offers.
What we do feel confident in is the common sense that this scholarship offer is not going to help Young become a successful, well-rounded and appropriately well-adjusted young man.
After all, if you were offered a full college scholarship at age 10, would you be able to avoid getting a big head? Even if you were, would you be able to keep yourself aggressively motivated?
These are just a few of the reasons why Young’s scholarship really isn’t such a boon for he or his family. At least not yet. They can say whatever they want, but it doesn’t mean they’re right. It’s easy to be optimistic and energized by bona fide collegiate interest at such a young age.
Mike Evans, who trains both Young and Finney, disagrees.
“I’d rather a kid have a scholarship than going to join a gang or sell drugs,” he told WritingIllini.com. “This helps a kid want to continue to play a sport and work hard because they know it’s possible. This gives all the other kids across the world a chance to say, ‘You know what, I’m going to go train because I want to be like Bunchie or Havon.’
“This is something positive, something that will keep them motivated and stay in school because they want to go to college.”
The real debate at this point should be whether it’s time for the NCAA to intervene, as it did in lacrosse. Beginning with the 2017-18 school year, lacrosse programs will be banned from contact with any student athletes before Sept. 1 of the junior year. The goal is to limit the spread of aggressive recruiting trends among young athletes.
The same purported benefits driving the underclassmen recruiting ban in lacrosse — providing prospective college athletes with more time to evaluate options and benefitting previously overlooked late-bloomers — would likely hold true for football as well. In fact, in football those benefits could be more pronounced relative to late bloomers, particularly those who develop and grow into “Division I” bodies during the final two years of high school competition.
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http://thecomeback.com/nfl/virtual-reality-based-concussion-diagnosis-system-just-unveiled.html
There’s now a VR system designed to diagnose concussions on the sidelines.
SyncThink’s EYE-SYNC technology uses a virtual reality style system to test for ocular-motor synchronization, a main symptom of a concussion, giving results in less than a minute.
…
The EYE-SYNC has been cleared by the FDA, and is used by Stanford University to screen players for potential concussions.
That would be a great tool for high schools and youth leagues, too. The NCAA and NFL can afford medical experts but high schools and below are lucky to have trainers available.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-fo…may-not-be-an-active-topic-but-its-out-there/
Kansas’ announcement of $300 million in football facility upgrades is a bet to be on the radar in the next wave of realignment
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Here’s the full link:
http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/inside-college-football-realignment-may-not-be-an-active-topic-but-its-out-there/
It also had this nugget:
Of all the recent FBS startups, this is one of the more unique. Texas Rio Grande Valley — a 4-year-old school located in six extreme south Texas towns — continues its feasibility study to add FBS football.
The school is part of the WAC in basketball but is becoming more expansive under the leadership of president Guy Bailey, former president at Alabama and Texas Tech. TRGV’s consultants include former Texas coach Mack Brown and Oliver Luck, currently the No. 2 executive at the NCAA.
The school was established in 2013 after Texas-Pan American was folded into other campuses in Brownsville, Edinburg, Harlingen, McAllen, Rio Grande City and South Padre Island.
The school has studied the feasibility study conducted by Wichita State last year. Wichita State ultimately concluded football wasn’t worth it when the price tag just to get to the point of snapping a ball was estimated at $40 million-$50 million.
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I know it will not be easy for Kansas to divorce themselves from Kansas State, but the one scenario where they could is a Southwest Conference type end of the Big XII, and the options are a Power 4 Conference home ( such as the Big 10) and an agreement ( or even Legislative mandate that they play KSU ( like with Colorado and Colorado State)), or go to the AAC or Mountain West with the Wildcats. KU who might have the WORST Power 5 program in America is basically betting $300m that they can. Perhaps this is the most interesting thing about Kansas. They already had a plan to renovate Memorial Stadium, but it was not kicking off until 2023. Something to think about. Of course Kansas has two aces in the hole ( three if you include hoops). 1: AAU membership. 2: Location ( next door to Oklahoma). Again why expedite the process of spending $300m to upgrade the Stadium of perhaps the Worst Power 5 football team in America? Do the Jayhawks know ( or just suspect) things are happening ( like a divorce from Kansas State and joining the Big 10), it will be interesting to see what happens?
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Big 12 is key in SEC adding more schools
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/06/sec_expansion_how_the_big_12_c.html
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19743196/why-2023-next-big-date-conference-shuffling
ESPN.com say to watch for conference realignment in 2023. I highly suggest you read the whole thing, but here are some highlights.
Realignment appears to be in sleep mode. For now. But the potential for realignment — and the strategy for when it surfaces again — never completely leaves the radar of college sports’ power brokers. That’s why they’re thinking about 2023.
Why 2023? It starts with expiring TV contracts. The ACC and SEC both have long-term media grant-of-rights agreements, running through 2035-36 and 2033-34, respectively. But the other three Power 5 conferences have agreements ending roughly around the same time (the SEC’s Tier 1 deal with CBS runs through 2023-24). The Big Ten last summer opted for a shorter agreement with Fox and ESPN, which runs through 2022-23. The Pac-12 deal expires after the 2023-24 sports year, and the Big 12’s ends the following year.
“Conferences have expanded primarily to take really good football schools to enhance their football footprint and strength, and also to help their [television] networks,” Aresco said. “The question down the road will be whether any conferences want to add schools that they feel will strengthen them in football, whether it’s because of an upcoming rights fee deal, or they feel it would strengthen their conference network.
“So ’23, ’24, that’s what everybody thinks about.”
Traditional rights deals aren’t the only reason 2023 matters. By then the traditional rights deal itself might be obsolete. Conferences recognize that fans are consuming content, including live events, in different ways. This shift will continue to impact current distributors like ESPN, Fox and CBS, and could bring different companies into the distribution market, like Amazon, Google, Facebook or Twitter.
Leagues like the Pac-12 are counting on it, especially because its own network has yet to produce significant revenue for members.
…
Realignment strategy also should change. In 2012, the Big Ten added Maryland and Rutgers more for their surrounding television markets than for the individual fan bases they added to the league. But if traditional cable subscription numbers continue to decrease, leagues might be less concerned about markets and would instead target members with large, passionate fan bases, willing to pay whatever to see their teams.
…
“The shifting media landscape raises questions about whether or not having more inventory necessarily produces more revenue,” said Kevin Weiberg, the former Big 12 commissioner and former deputy commissioner for both the Big Ten and Pac-12. “You also have to wonder if the kind of significant growth that the big conferences have achieved through media rights is still going to be there in six or seven years. So, if you were to expand, can you do it in a way that grows the pie for everyone?”
…
“I don’t know where the pressure point will be,” Aresco said. “SEC, Big Ten — some of these conferences now are at 14. ACC is 15 if you count Notre Dame. I don’t know they necessarily have an appetite for further expansion. You never know. There are some schools that almost anyone would want to have.”
Expansion carries risk, but so does falling behind in revenue. No league will catch the SEC and the Big Ten, so schools not in those conferences must assess whether they can live with the gaps. A recent Detroit News report, which showed that Michigan expects to receive $51.1 million from the Big Ten in 2018, made waves around the industry.
“I got my glasses to make sure I read it right,” said an athletic director in another Power 5 conference. “That’s a big number. [The Big Ten has] been out ahead of the network curve for quite some time. They were the first to the market and created the market, so we’re all trailing.”
…
So it might come down to the Big 12 and Pac-12.
The Big 12 is still perceived as the most vulnerable, as Texas or Oklahoma could cripple the league by leaving. But revenue totals are encouraging — its 10 members will split $348 million from the 2016-17 academic year — and the internal squabbling that has plagued the conference seems to have disappeared.
“We’ve never been more resolute and more united as a group,” TCU athletic director Chris Del Conte said. “When we signed that grant of rights and we committed to a 10-team league, every decision we made is phenomenal for us in all of our sports.”
The Pac-12’s forecast, meanwhile, is less encouraging, and its revenue gap with other Power 5 leagues will widen before the next rights negotiation. Cal’s athletic department lost $21.7 million in the 2016 fiscal year. Although the Pac-12’s geography and tradition suggests members won’t be looking to leave, something needs to shift before 2023.
As an industry insider said, “The Big 12’s making strides, while the Pac-12 is falling behind.” Another asked, “Can other conferences take advantage of the Pac-12?”
It seems unlikely that P12 schools would leave, but do we need to rethink that for the future? Could the financial gap ever get large enough for some of them to look to the B12 or B10? What about realignment football-only for some P12 schools to get the revenue boost while keeping less travel in other sports?
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How much of a realignment wild card has been created by political and philosophical differences between the states of California and Texas? I see no reason to believe that CA will back off its travel bans and also do not think that Texas legislators will in any way care what happens in Sacramento.
With BYU there are cultural issues that deal with the school itself. With UT it has nothing to do with the Longhorns. Unless there are big political changes, UT can never join the PAC.
I do not believe that the SEC is an option for UT and do not expect that to change. How about the ACC? Maybe.
It just seems that the B1G or Big 12 are the two options primary for UT. If Oklahoma were invited to and joined the SEC, then what happens?
UT and Kansas to the B1G might be the only realistic option left.
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How many (of 12 votes) are needed to approve an expansion offer? I dont think its a given that USC or even Stanford would go in lockstep with the UCs. It would come down to how much more pie is being added and whether its a big enough pie that sharing it with 2-4 others will not diminish the existing piece of pie enjoyed by the current Pac12 non-California public universities.
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It would seem without UT the PAC won’t expand. Academics over athletics unless a particular king in both is included.
Regarding U$C and Stanford, my understanding is that they didn’t oppose the OU/OkSU possibility some time back.
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Jersey Bernie,
“I see no reason to believe that CA will back off its travel bans and also do not think that Texas legislators will in any way care what happens in Sacramento.”
Don’t get ahead of things. Last I heard people are still waiting for the AG to give legal guidance on whether college athletics are covered or not. That could be rather significant for this.
“With UT it has nothing to do with the Longhorns. Unless there are big political changes, UT can never join the PAC.”
CA only controls 2 votes. USC and Stanford don’t have to go along with it.
“It just seems that the B1G or Big 12 are the two options primary for UT. If Oklahoma were invited to and joined the SEC, then what happens?
UT and Kansas to the B1G might be the only realistic option left.”
It’s possible.
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Perhaps I am getting ahead of myself. That is often what one does when projecting the future.
It just seems to me that California politics is veering further left, so I would not project a change there. Could Texas also move further left in the next five or six years and bridge the gap? Maybe.
While USC and Stanford may be willing to ignore the ban and play games in those states, inviting UT into the PAC is a big step, if the political pressure in CA is strong. We shall see.
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Shortly after the objectionable laws are altered/struck down travel will resume. See: North Carolina.
The question regarding potential realignment (UT) is not any particular legislation but the culture of the politics that frequently intrude into the higher ed area in a not so subtle way. Inviting UT is bringing along the rest (the politico) into the conference, permanently.
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Jersey Bernie,
“It just seems to me that California politics is veering further left, so I would not project a change there.”
Is it really going further left or has it been there for a while? It’s been ahead of the curve on some issues (LGBTQ rights, environment) for a long time. I don’t expect them to pivot to the right anytime soon but they’ve had several Republican governors recently (Arnold, Pete Wilson, …) so they may not be that far from where much of the country will be in a decade or two.
“Could Texas also move further left in the next five or six years and bridge the gap? Maybe.”
On LGBTQ rights, I’d expect much of the country to slowly “move left” as they get used to it. Gay marriage was the most recent thing to follow that pattern but it’s generally the direction civil rights issues move.
“While USC and Stanford may be willing to ignore the ban and play games in those states, inviting UT into the PAC is a big step, if the political pressure in CA is strong. We shall see.”
I’m not sure how strong that pressure is. Do the people really support not sending UCLA to JerryWorld if the CFP is held there? Besides, the banned states have all talked about retaliating against CA. Will the hospitality and tourism industries tolerate that?
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I have a sense that Boren’s been the catalyst for much of this recent realignment talk. At his advanced age, he’d probably like to get things in place as soon as possible for Oklahoma to change conferences, whether it be to the Big Ten with Kansas (assuming each can politically divorce their in-state siblings) or to the SEC with Okie State. Boren probably would prefer the former, but would have the latter as a potential fallback option if Stillwater must be protected.
Boren knows that landing OU in a more stable, academically-oriented conference (at least in the case of the B1G) would cement his legacy in Norman, just as the ACC-to-B1G move has done for Maryland’s Loh.
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This is why my bet, if further consolidation occurs, it’s the P16. The B1G probably isn’t going to take OU, and while SEC would they aren’t doubling up in a small state when they may still like central Atlantic opportunities. WV fits sec culture, and/or they may think VT is a future possibility. TT likewise not moving (P4) without UT, and PAC only one that’s seemed willing to do siblings along with the OU/UT combo.
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What would the Pac have to do to satisfy Texas? Austin might make demands the conference can’t agree to.
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“What would the Pac have to do to satisfy Texas?”
Offer whatever the want?
Seriously, I don’t think the PAC will do much on their own. It would be a calculation at UT that changing conferences was becoming more viable than keeping the B12 alive, and leaving both OU and TT (local politics) unlikely to be acceptable while an alternative exists. Assuming PAC willing to extend the offer again.
“Austin might make demands the conference can’t agree to.”
They did that in ’10.
There’s that LHN thing…
So the zombie conference lives on?
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What would the Pac have to do to satisfy Texas? Austin might make demands the conference can’t agree to.
This year, the Big 12 will distribute $34.8m per school (except Baylor). The Pac-12 distributes $29.5m per school, so there is already at least a $5m gap. In addition, Texas has the Longhorn Network, which it keeps to itself; no Pac-12 school has that.
Never mind the intangible drawbacks of Texas moving to the Pac-12: abandoning old rivalries, longer travel distances, and playing games at undesirable times. Schools have proven they’ll accept those inconveniences, if the money is good enough — but in this case, the money is worse.
So please, remind me again, what exactly does the Pac-12 have to offer? I am not seeing it.
I am also not seeing how the Pac-12 can narrow the gap. They are stuck in a less desirable time zone for TV viewing, with no fans west of their footprint, with no plausible expansion candidates, and with a weaker football culture.
The SEC and the B10 are the only leagues that might be able to offer Texas enough money that it would be worth their while to switch — not that such a deal will happen, but at least Texas would listen. I can’t see how the Pac-12 could ever assemble a decent proposal, unless events beyond their control make the B12 unviable.
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ccrider55,
Suggesting that a PAC16 will be the impetus for further consolidation is wrong. The PAC is in a unique situation which makes it the least likely P5 conference to drive consolidation.
First, the PAC is geographically isolated and already requires its athletes to do the most traveling. Seattle to Tucson and Boulder to San Francisco is already a large footprint which makes it difficult to have a common culture for their fan bases. UT’s AD used this as the excuse for not moving on a P16 proposal in 2010.
Second, from an economic value perspective, the PAC currently has a lot of free riders that don’t make it attractive for potential new members. Washington State and Oregon State are undoubtedly the least valuable P5 schools…weak in football, small markets in remote areas, and no real brand recognition. If money is the underlying reason for leaving the B12, the PAC offers the least financial upside
Third, the actual & potential markets are not really that great in the west. The midwest, south and southwest have passionate fans. The east has a lot of people and future talent. Only California offers an attractive market for new PAC members…and California is being mined by a lot of schools already. The non-California schools need to protect their access to California, or risk further irrelevance.
The PAC can be opportunistic, but not an instigator.
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Pablo:
“Suggesting that a PAC16 will be the impetus for further consolidation is wrong.”
Suggesting no such thing. (PAC reportedly turned down OU/OkSU just before B12 meetings setting up current GOR)
“The PAC is in a unique situation which makes it the least likely P5 conference to drive consolidation.”
Yet they were a half hour from the P16 7 years ago. Then UT bet on what became LHN, and maintaining B12.
“Seattle to Tucson and Boulder to San Francisco is already a large footprint which makes it difficult to have a common culture for their fan bases.”
Austin to Piscataway to Madison to College Park isn’t? Frankly, Austin/UT is a little cali blue tea sipping island that happens to be in Texas.
“UT’s AD used this as the excuse for not moving on a P16 proposal in 2010.”
Emphasis on “excuse.” Once you’re on a plane…etc.
“Second, from an economic value perspective, the PAC currently has a lot of free riders that don’t make it attractive for potential new members.”
Ames, Lubbock, Stillwater, Manhattan, Waco…?
Every conference has levels, and below the kings some rotation over time. You join the conference, not just certain members.
“Third, the actual & potential markets are not really that great in the west.”
With Tex/Ok P16 would cover a third of the U. S. population.
“The PAC can be opportunistic, but not an instigator.”
Don’t think they want to be. UT knows what is required. It’ll be their evaluation of which situation they prefer.
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FY17 financial numbers for the P12 public schools except ASU. The net total is about $40M in deficit, mainly due to Cal (-$21.8M), OrSU (-$9.9M) and WSU (-$10.6M).
Break even – CO, OR, UCLA
Small profit – UW ($2000), Utah ($350k-500k), AZ ($1.4M)
Last year ASU technically had a $5.5M profit but that’s with well over $10M in subsidies/fees.
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Taking the pulse of ESPN. Lots here:
http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/06/26/Media/ESPN-main.aspx
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ESPN not hurting as much as people assume due to sub declines.
http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/06/26/Media/ESPN-main.aspx?
“Standard cable contracts mandate that channels have to be in a certain percentage of homes — called “minimum penetration thresholds.”
Around 15 years ago, though, ESPN took those clauses out of its deals in exchange for convincing distributors to pay a higher license fee. Several distribution executives describe the move as a good one for ESPN at the time, as it made sure that the channel not only had the highest affiliate fee in the business, but its annual increases were bigger than other channels’ entire fee.
In 2016, for example, distributors paid ESPN $7.24 per subscriber per month, according to Kagan. In 2017, that fee increased to $7.89, an increase of 65 cents. Only 13 channels make more than 65 cents per subscriber per month, including four Disney-owned channels…”
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And just a bit further down, the article says what I’ve pointed out before:
Even though ESPN’s distribution is smaller, the network still is making more in affiliate revenue thanks to those increases. ESPN executives insist they like that trade-off, and distribution executives even privately agree that the 15-year old arrangement has been good for ESPN.
ESPN’s profit is down, but that was unavoidable. All the sports properties could see how much profit ESPN was making from them and they weren’t going to let that continue forever, especially once there were serious competitors to ESPN.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/fox/jamie-horowitz-fox-sports-digital.html
So as of Monday, foxsports.com has basically dropped all original written content. It’s sole purpose now is to hype FS1 talent’s television content. For months some of their top writers have been ghostwriting articles that were put under the bylines of FS1 personalities (Colin Cowherd, Skip Bayless, etc) instead of writing their own articles.
The reason I bring this is up is because Fox is picking up B10- football this year. How do you feel about a network that is carrying B10 games not providing any unique written content that isn’t derived from FS1 hot takes? I think it hurts the B10 to not get quality written coverage as well as sound bites and hot takes. Just another downside to the deal with Fox. I think the B10 might end up regretting this deal.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19777431/family-late-penn-state-nittany-lions-coach-joe-paterno-drops-lawsuit-vs-ncaa-freeh-report
The Paterno family dropped their lawsuit against the NCAA for using the Freeh report.
Paterno’s estate, his son Jay and former assistant William Kenney discontinued their case. The NCAA called it a voluntary decision and said there was no payment involved.
NCAA chief legal officer Donald Remy claimed a total victory for his organization, which he said acted reasonably in adopting conclusions from a university-commissioned report authored by a team led by former FBI director Louis Freeh.
“The Paterno family characterized this case as a ‘search for the truth,'” Remy said. “Its decision today, after years of investigation and discovery, to abandon its lawsuit rather than subject those facts to courtroom examination is telling.”
He said the Paterno family wasted time, effort and money in the case.
In response to a text message from the AP, Jay Paterno referred to a one-page statement released by his mother and Joe’s widow, Sue Paterno. In it, she said the family had accomplished its goals and continuing litigation would not yield anything new.
…
The lawsuit had claimed that college sports’ governing body damaged the Paterno estate’s commercial interests through its use of the Freeh report. Kenney and Jay Paterno alleged the Freeh report rendered them unable to find comparable coaching work.
…
Former Penn State president Graham Spanier was convicted in March of misdemeanor child endangerment for his failure to report the complaint about Sandusky apparently sexually abusing a boy on campus. Former athletic director Tim Curley and former vice president Gary Schultz had earlier pleaded guilty to the same charge.
The judge who sentenced Curley, Schultz and Spanier did not spare Paterno, saying he could have called police “without so much as getting his hands dirty. Why he didn’t is beyond me.”
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-hockey/spec-rel/070117aaa.html
ND hockey is officially an affiliate member of the B10 as of today. The B10 season will expand to 24 games from 20 and will start earlier in the season.
The hockey tournament is moving to campuses with the higher seeds hosting all games.
ND’s first B10 game will be @OSU on11/3.
The 2017-18 season marks the 58th year of men’s hockey at Notre Dame. Under the guidance of head coach Jeff Jackson, the Fighting Irish have qualified for the NCAA Tournament eight times in 12 seasons, reaching the Frozen Four three times, most recently in 2017.
Notre Dame has previously shared a conference with five of the six Big Ten hockey programs. The Fighting Irish were members of the CCHA (with Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State) from 1992-93 through 2012-13. Prior to that, they were members of the WCHA (with Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Wisconsin) from 1971-72 through 1980-81.
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I should be perfectly happy if once their current contract with the ACC expires that the B1G offer them a similar deal in football and a home for all their other sports. You could even sweeten the football deal. Drop the commitment to four games, the traditional three of Purdue, Michigan State and Michigan, plus one other of their choice.
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I don’t think the B10 would ever make that offer to ND, but I could be wrong. I think they’d want full commitment including football. Otherwise, just let ND schedule B10 teams as they will.
I’m also not 100% sure MI and MSU would want ND annually again. I think they might want the occasional year off to play some other major programs. Maybe PU stays annual and MI and MSU rotate 2 years on/2 years off (or 4 on/2 off).
I don’t think ND wants all their sports in the midwest. They want more eastern exposure than the B10 provides. If the B10 ever expanded eastward again and got UVA and UNC, that might be different.
Is it worth diluting the rivalries even more in MBB just to get a few more football games from ND? Especially with only 18 games, who wants to waste them on ND?
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PU was ND’s oldest and longest rivalry. Of course, since PU decided to deemphasize sports, it has not been a competitive game. But PU would sign in an instant.
I was at the OSU/ND game, nd it was the most electrifying event I have ever attended. There might have 200,000 people milling about outside Ohio Stadium during the game and another 100,000 inside. TOSU might want an annual game if either UM or MSU doesn’t.
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I’ll promise OSU doesn’t want an annual game. That would mean never playing any other major OOC game again. No OU, UT, USC, UW, OR, FSU, etc. That’s bad for the national profile. ND also doesn’t want another annual game.
Gene Smith is more eager to play ND than most OSU ADs and that’s because it’s his alma mater. There are good reasons why OSU has only played ND 4 times in the regular season (with 2 more scheduled). Playing a series every 20 years is one thing, but there’s no way either side wants it to be annual.
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No thanks. They’re either a member, or they are not (affiliate in a particular sport is just that, not fully a member)
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http://www.statecollege.com/news/columns/penn-state-faces-unprecedented-3game-stretch-vs-michigan-ohio-state-michigan-state,1472472/
I was looking to see if PSU had announced any special celebrations for this being their 25th season in the B10 and found this article. It’s exactly the sort of thing that has driven B10 fans nuts about parts of the PSU fan base since they joined.
That’s when they begin a three-game, 15-day stretch hosting Michigan in a Beaver Stadium Whiteout, followed by consecutive contests on the road against Ohio State and Michigan State.
It’s quite the 25th anniversary gift the Big Ten Conference has dealt the Nittany Lions — which just fuels the fires that contend there is an anti-Penn State bias at 5440 Park Place in Rosemont, Illinois.
That trio of games is the first time since Penn State began playing football in the Big Ten in 1993 that it will face the Wolverines, the Buckeyes and the Spartans in back-to-back-to-back contests. In any order.
In 25 seasons, they’ll have played all 3 of those teams in 20 of them. Getting all 3 in a row just once doesn’t seem that unlikely. PSU has faced 2 in a row 11 times. OSU has faced 2 in a row 10 times despite only playing MSU 17 times over that period. In other words, there is no reason to think the B10 has it out for PSU now or ever did.
It’s less likely OSU or MI will get the 3 in a row because The Game is locked into the last week. PSU’s games against the other 3 tend to float around the schedule more. OSU has faced 3 ranked B10 teams in 3 weeks twice in that period. That seems worse than getting a down MSU this year. In 24 years, 11 teams have swept the round robin (OSU – 5, PSU, MI, MSU – 2 each). Out of 74 attempts, that’s not too bad (15%).
This right up there with the supposed conspiracy in the AP poll voting in 1994. Yes, the B10 footprint favored NE over PSU. But the rest of the nation was more skewed towards NE (38.5 to 5.5) than the B10 footprint was (13 to 5). In other words, the B10 footprint gave the most support to PSU of anywhere. Even if the B10 footprint had all voted for PSU, NE would’ve still easily won the title (38.5 to 23.5). But somehow, it was all the fault of anti-PSU bias in the B10 footprint.
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PSU football fans are like Maryland men’s basketball fans back in ACC days.
Ohio State = Duke
Michigan = North Carolina
Michigan State = N.C. State
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Virginia was a bigger hoops rival for Maryland then NC State, and as a Nittany Lion fan I can tell you we think nothing about Michigan State ( I even care about Iowa more ( because of wrestling)). My dislike list: 1: Michigan. 2: Pitt. 3: Ohio State. 4: Maryland. 5: Iowa. 6: Rutgers. 7: Nebraska. 8: Michigan State.
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David, you weren’t in College Park in the ’70s. Those Terps-Wolfpack games were wars, particularly when no (or, at most one) NCAA tournament at-large berths existed. State’s David Thompson remains the greatest college basketball player I’ve ever seen. It wasn’t until the late ’80s, when Valvano began to struggle, that NCSU wasn’t a primary Maryland men’s hoops rival.
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Ask a Maryland fan what they think of Penn State? We beat them twice when they were undefeated. They like us like Orioles fans like the Yankees, Ravens fans like the Steelers or Cap fans like the Penguins. I doubt they hated NC State like that
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It’s quite the 25th anniversary gift the Big Ten Conference has dealt the Nittany Lions — which just fuels the fires that contend there is an anti-Penn State bias at 5440 Park Place in Rosemont, Illinois.
I agree with this…and on top of it: fans of almost every Big Ten team think the league office is out to get them, whenever the league makes a scheduling decision they don’t like.
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As of July 1, there were a few “conference realignment” nuggets that took place:
– Coastal Carolina officially becomes the 12th member the Sun Belt. Although the Chanticleers still have one more transition year from FCS to FBS, they will play a full league schedule this year and are eligible for the Sun Belt title, they just will not be able to partake in a bowl game until 2018
– Alabama-Birmingham’s football program has been restored and returns to C-USA as that league’s 14th football member.
There are now 130 schools in FBS football
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Click to access D1final2017.pdf
The final Director’s Cup standings are out.
1. Stanford – 1563
2. OSU – 1343.75
3. UF – 1252.5
4. USC
5. UNC
6. MI
7. UT
8. PSU
9. OR
10. UK
16. WI
30. MN
36. NW
37. NE
38. IL
41. PU
47. IN
50. UMD
51. IA
53. MSU
116. RU
Other P5 schools below #75:
92. Pitt
101. WSU
102. GT
RU gets a full share starting in 2020-21 but should already be showing some improvement by then. By 2025 there should be absolutely no excuses for them.
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As of July 1 Nebraska is now a fully vested member of the Big Ten
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More sexual harassment problems at Fox, this time leading to the dismissal of Fox Sports head programmer Jamie Horowitz: http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-fox-sports-jamie-horowitz-sex-harassment-20170703-story.html
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http://awfulannouncing.com/fox/jamie-horowitz-fox-sports.html
Big news today at Fox Sports. Jamie Horowitz, president of Fox Sports Networks National and the guy who just recently killed the foxsports.com website, has been fired immediately. The rumors say it’s because of sexual harassment allegations and not ruining their website and online traffic. Many of the dozens of writers he just fired/didn’t renew seem to be celebrating.
The president of Fox Sports is covering his duties until a replacement is found. Coming so soon after the major changes of the website, you have to wonder if Fox will walk back any of those changes. You also have to wonder what impact, if any, this will have on the B10 coverage.
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With or without the writers at Fox Sports, their website has been garbage. ESPN’s website has increasingly become useless while Twitter has ruined a lot of legacy sports writing channels. A lot of sports fans are probably okay with a few tweets from some local reporters and then spend the rest of their time on the internet and on message boards getting their sporting news.
News is dead for the most part. Everything has resorted into opinion journalism and entertainment news.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19866548/notre-dame-fighting-irish-arkansas-razorbacks-meet-2020-1st
ND and AR have agreed to a home and home. Why would ND want to play AR? They can’t have many alumni in the area and there are no major markets there for them to want the exposure. Maybe nobody else was available.
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Hoping they can get Arkansas to move the game to Dallas?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19841211/collaborative-replay-spreading-due-success-acc-sec
It looks like CFB is moving to the collaborative replay system.
What the ACC and SEC began last season with collaborative replay, nearly every Power 5 conference has decided to follow for 2017.
The Big 12 and Pac-12 have spent the offseason building replay command centers in or next to their conference offices. The Big Ten, meanwhile, will allow the referee on the field to use a monitor to collaborate with the replay officials upstairs for the second straight season.
Beyond the Power 5 conferences, the SEC and Sun Belt have come to a first-of-its-kind agreement: The Sun Belt will use the SEC command center in Birmingham, Alabama, to participate in centralized replay for all its conference home games.
Can it be long before they move to a national center to keep things more equal nationally?
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This will no doubt be used by the SEC to help protect their National Championship teams. They have benefited more than any other conference by questionable calls favoring their teams still in the hunt.
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Link: http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/
USA Today has updated their college athletic department revenues/expenses. Big Ten schools
REVENUE
1. Texas A&M – $194,388,450
—————————
3. Ohio State – $170,789,765
5. Michigan – $163,850,616
11. Wisconsin – $132,788,726
12. Penn State – $132,248,076
16. Michigan State – $123,034,495
19. Minnesota – $113,506,279
20. Iowa – $113,249,020
22. Nebraska $112,142,961
31. Illinois – $96,249,500
32. Indiana – $95,216,762
36. Maryland – $94,101,697
40. Rutgers – $83,974,159
47. Purdue – $78,699,976
Northwestern (no report)
EXPENSES
1. Texas – $171,394,287
——————————–
2. Ohio State – $166,811,018
3. Michigan – $157,872,099
6. Wisconsin – $130,433,373
7. Penn State – $129,349,149
13. Michigan State – $121,892,394
17. Iowa – $116,168,740
19. Minnesota – $110,673,824
24. Nebraska – $103,745,775
27. Illinois – $102,912,910
33. Indiana – $94,190,256
34. Maryland – $94,101,697
42. Rutgers – $83,974,159
45. Purdue – $78,778,953
Northwestern (no report)
Iowa, Illinois and Purdue spent more money than they earned per these figures. Maryland and Rutgers broke even.
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Schools reporting no net subsidy:
1. TAMU
2. UT
3. OSU
6. OU
7. LSU
9. TN
12. PSU
13. UK
14. AR
17. SC
22. NE
34. MsSU
47. PU
Schools with less than $1M in net subsidy:
5. MI
20. IA
43. Cal
49. KSU
230. AL A&M
#16 MSU and #30 MO were just barely over $1M.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/usa-today-ncaa-financial-report-college-athletic-departments-profit-revenue.html
And a column reminding people that net profit is a pointless measure since these ADs are non-profit entities.
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In Rutger’s case, something like $28 million of the $84 million came from the school, student fees, etc. This explains how RU broke exactly even. That is what they need to eliminate with a full share from B1G. I would expect that any school that “broke even” (UMd) also broke even including subsidies.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/07/06/state-wyoming-answers-call-cowboys-athletics/449441001/
Western states are taking a different approach to college athletics. The states are directly supporting the ADs at the schools, sometimes at the expense of the academic side.
There’s a nice chart in the article, but here’s the data.
ADs getting at least $2M in direct government support in 2015:
Army – $13.1M
UNLV – $7.3M
Nevada – $5.2M
WY – $4.9M
ID St – $3.6M
NMSU – $3.4M
N. AZ – $3.2M
UNM – $2.8M
NDSU – $2.8M
Boise – $2.8M
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/texas-lands-sponsorship-deal-corona-thus-opening-door-new-revenue-sources-college-sports.html
UT has a sponsorship deal with Corona, the first of its kind.
I assume this means that other schools that sell beer in their stadiums will follow suit, or maybe conferences will (the official moonshine of the SEC).
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3….2….1…. for some to bitch an moan about it not being a ‘murican beer or at the very least an Austin institution like Tito’s Handmade vodka.
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Made in Mexico by Anheuser-Busch InBev, which is headquartered in Leuven, Belgium. Modelo Especial would have been a better choice.
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Model Especial is a good beer, though I’ve always liked Bohemia. Corona … well, it’s not the only beer that is improved by drinking it with a lime, but it’s one of the few to admit it.
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Both products are made by Grupo Modelo breweries in MX, but both Corona and Modelo tend to give me a gas pain near my shoulders, especially when consumed with fare such as tacos and the Tecate/Sol/Carta Blanca/DosEquis grouping goes down much smoother.
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Brian – while its not a sponsorship deal, LSU has had its own officially licensed beer for about a year now produced by local craft brewery, Tin Roof.
http://www.tinroofbeer.com/brews/
Univ of Louisiana-Lafayette and Tulane have their own beers as well.
Also, when I think of moonshine, I think of North Carolina or West Virginia. The SEC would be more likely to license a bourbon, as most big distilleries are in Kentucky or Tennessee.
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Lots of certificates, and a few full blown fermentation science degree programs. These schools deserve sponsorships. They’re preparing the future of the industry.
http://allaboutbeer.com/article/beer-schools/
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But Tennessee has moonshine in it’s unofficial song: “Corn won’t grow at all on Rocky Top / dirt’s too rocky by far. / That’s why all the folks on Rocky Top / Get their corn in a jar.”
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http://www.capitalonecup.com/
OSU officially held on to win the men’s Capital One Cup.
1. OSU 111
2. UNC 105
3. Stanford 94.5
Stanford crushed everyone on the women’s side
1. Stanford 174.5
2. USC 129
3. UF 87
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A note from Twitter:
AL hasn’t played a road OOC game since 2011 and that’s not likely to change any time soon (none scheduled in the future with full schedules through 2019).
Next longest streaks belong to TN and WV (since 2014).
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I was starting to think the other 13 members of the B1G should pool a bunch of money to buy U of Ill when the state started selling off assets.
Moot now.
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/06/535811049/illinois-lawmakers-override-governor-pass-budget-for-first-time-in-2-years
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FanSided (part of Sports Illustrated) names High Point Stadium at Rutgers number 29 in the top thirty bucket list for college football fans – because RU is the birthplace of college football. The OSU Michigan game was number 2 and Camp Randall was number 19 for the jump around. https://www.onthebanks.com/2017/7/7/15933386/rutgers-makes-fansided-bucket-list-college-football-fans-birthplace-big-ten-washington-princeton
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19871676/three-former-michigan-state-football-players-accused-sexual-assault-dismissed-university
The 3 former MSU football players charged with sexual assault have been expelled from MSU after their Title IX hearing. Their lawyers are complaining about how unfair it is, of course. They feel MSU should’ve waited for the criminal investigation to end because the players “couldn’t” participate in the Title IX investigation as long as the criminal one was ongoing. Of course, if the school had waited for the criminal case, then they’d be accused of harboring rapists and shielding athletes.
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http://inside.collegefactual.com/methodologies/best-sports-colleges-ranking-methodology
Collegefactual.com put together a methodology for ranking schools based on athletic success in a particular sport as well as the cost and quality of the education at the school.
http://college.usatoday.com/2017/07/07/best-colleges-football/
USA Today published the top 10 for football.
1. OSU
2. TCU
3. Duke
4. ND
5. AL
6. WI
7. Baylor
8. Clemson
9. GT
10. USC
Not the usual top 10 list you’ll see anywhere. Duke being so high shows the importance of quality education to their rankings.
At collegefactual.com you can choose any of 34 sports to get the rankings.
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CBS Sports has picked FSU as the Best in College Sports. They rank success in the sports that they think have the broadest base of fan support. That is men’s football, men’s and women’s basketball, and two wild cards. GO NOLES.
http://www.seminoles.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=32900&ATCLID=211644204
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/7/9/15933444/media-days-2017-sec-big-ten-acc-big-12-pac-12
SEC media days start today and end on Thursday (7/10-13).
ACC – 7/13-14 (Th – Fri)
B12 – 7/17-18 (Mon-Tues)
B10 – 7/24-25 (Mon-Tues)
P12 – 7/26-27 (Wed-Th)
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-interest-in-14-week-schedule-could-move-college-football-seasons-up-one-week/
It sounds like the SEC is on board with the move to a 14-week schedule with 2 byes every season. However, they don’t want to start practice any earlier in the summer or lose any of their 29 allowed practices. With two-a-days abolished, I’m not sure how that can work.
The NCAA announced in June that it was looking at this potential change, so it wasn’t the SEC bringing this up.
Would this inevitably lead to 13 games, or is the push for athlete safety sufficient to keep the season at 12 games? I know many fans want the extra game, especially if it means another conference game in these expanded conferences, but I’m not sure the coaches or players want more games.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/07/10/sec-to-celebrate-50th-anniversary-of-first-black-player/103584396/
To kick off media days, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey talked about this being the 50th anniversary of integration in SEC football.
Sankey talked at length Monday about Nate Northington’s debut on Sept. 30, 1967 for Kentucky against Mississippi. The commissioner gave a history lesson on the timeline of integration in the league, including when Northington, then a sophomore, becoming the first African-American to play in a varsity SEC football game.
Sankey said by playing in a football game, “Nate Northington affected us all.”
The commissioner did talk about other issues, including scheduling, recruiting and instant replay. But he devoted a lot of his time talking about integration.
There were four black football players on that Wildcats team: Northington, Greg Page, Wilbur Hackett and Houston Hogg.
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/7/10/15932520/big-ten-football-2017-power-rankings-ohio-state
For those interested in advanced stats and the like, Bill Connelly has completed his B10 previews and this post is his power rankings (done by feel, not strictly by S&P+). I linked this post of his because it has links to each individual team’s preview included in it.
The data show some pretty clear tiers:
Tier 1 – OSU, PSU, MI, WI
Tier 2 – NW, IN, NE, MSU, IA, MN
Tier 3 – UMD, IL, PU, RU
I don’t think those should really surprise anybody.
Bill C. puts WI on its own tier in the power rankings mainly because he considers them the only team from the West with a realistic chance to win the B10 but considers the big 3 in the East better.
The one caveat he gives is that all these projections were done before MSU’s issues were resolved so they will probably drop when he updates things in August for transfers, injuries, etc.
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https://www.sbnation.com/2017/7/6/15930008/college-sports-revenue-athletic-department-money-rankings-2017
USA Today’s update financial database was linked here recently. In this article the averages for the public schools in the conferences are compared.
Average revenue:
1. SEC – $132.9M
2. B10 – $116.1M
3. B12 – $108.4M
4. ACC – $98.2M
5. P12 – $86.8M
6. AAC – $55.8M
7. MWC – $40.8M
8. A10 – $32.3M^
9. CUSA – $31.6M
10. MAC – $30.4M
12. SB – $26.2M
^ – Only 4 of the 14 members of the A10 are public so this average may not mean much. The A10 doesn’t sponsor football, but UMass plays I-A and URI plays I-AA (as do 5 private schools that aren’t counted here).
DI – $42.5*
I-A – $72.7M*
Non-I-A – $17.5M* (I-AA and non-football leagues)
P5s – $108.5M*
G5s – $37.0M*
* – These are averages based on the averages of the conferences contained in that group, not an actual average of each school so they aren’t weighted for conference size.
Remember that private schools aren’t included which would impact the final numbers for many conferences.
In a couple of years there will be a significant change for the B10 as the new TV deals will lead to a jump of $15M per school or so. Basically it should put the B10 and SEC on one tier with the rest of the P5s on a second tier.
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Remember that the SEC numbers also have a bump due some massive short term donations at A&M. That alone is responsible for about $5 Million of the average.
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https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/
A look at the potential impact of doping over the years on World Records in track & field. It’s full of data and graphs that show the huge impact steroids had before 1990 and then EPO for endurance running until about 2004. The doping was so bad for women in the 80s that many of the WR’s are still untouchable today. Nobody can get within 1.5-2% of the record despite all the legal improvements in equipment, training methodology, etc.
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The doping agency has suggested that all track and field records set prior to 2005 be voided.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-americans-order-their-steak/
An important article – how Americans like their steak cooked. It based on a year’s worth of data from Longhorn Steakhouse (all national locations combined).
Rare – 2.5%
Medium Rare – 22.5%
Medium – 37.5%
Medium Well – 25.8%
Well – 11.7%
It did vary by the cut of beef, thankfully. Prime rib had more people ordering it R or MR while the T-bone had the most MW and W orders as a percentage.
The data is probably a little biased since Longhorn probably doesn’t attract as high a percentage of the R to MR ordering people as higher end steakhouses, but obviously they attract a lot more total diners based on the size of their chain. The other large chains also probably have similar stats.
I wonder how home grillers would rate out. They don’t cook to order necessarily, but do they tend more toward Rare (or Well) than restaurant goers?
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A sous vide has helped greatly with my consistency in home grilling.
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-rule-changes-coaches-who-argue-on-field-players-who-run-and-leap-risk-penalty/
A point of emphasis for officials this year will be a new rule allowing a 15-yard unsportsmanlike penalty on coaches if they run onto the field arguing a call.
One of the four “national points of emphasis” introduced by Shaw was a check on coaches via a new rule that could end up playing a huge part in the outcome of a game this fall.
In an effort to control coaches’ sideline behavior, officials now have the power to issue an immediate 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct if a coach enters the field of play “to question, protest or otherwise demonstrate disagreement with an officiating decision.”
“That will be a pretty big change, but I think our hope is our coaches adjust, and it becomes a nonissue,” Shaw said. “We still have a sideline warning if they’re crowding the sideline or the team is out of the team area. We still have a sideline warning. It’s a warning, a 5-yard, a 5-yard then a 15-yard penalty.
“This other you can go to immediately if they come out to protest an officiating decision, but we still have the other warning process.”
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How many will Bo Pelini earn?
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http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2017/JUNE17/DBJune23.html
Phil Steele has a new and improved experience metric he’s using this year. He has combined 5 simple factors (class breakdown of the 2 deep, % of letter winners returning, % of total yards returning, % of total tackles returning, career starts for the OL returning) into one score from 0 to 100.
B10:
11. PSU – 72.6
17. NW – 70.7
33. WI – 66.1
38. OSU – 65.8
39. PU – 65.8
47. IN – 63.7
66. IA – 60.5
81. RU – 57.8
96. UMD – 53.8
116. MN – 47.8
124. IL – 43.7
126. NE – 41.5
127. MI – 41.0
129. MSU – 39.2
We all knew MI lost a ton after last year, but I didn’t realize NE and MSU were also hit so hard. For NE the biggest blow was % of yards returning at only 22.4%. MSU was weak across the board, really. MI obviously lacks roster experience and returning tackles as the whole D left.
Anyway, I though this metric might be a little more useful than just returning starters or other single metrics.
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I’ve got to think that the 65.8 for Purdue means something different than the 65.8 for Ohio State.
Is Steele betting on Penn State to go to the football playoffs?
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Remember, this is just a measure of the experience on the roster. It says nothing about how good the players are. Steele has other measures to judge how good players are (various power rankings).
OSU and PU have fairly similar stats in terms of returning experience. The biggest differences are that PU has more seniors in their 2 deep but OSU has more returning OL starts.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/19974682/nba-board-governors-approves-rule-drop-outs-18-14-per-game
The NBA is going from 18 TOs per game down to 14 and only allowing 2 in the final 2:00 per team instead of 3.
The NBA board of governors approved a rule to decrease the number of timeouts per game from 18 to 14. It also passed a rule that would limit timeouts in the final two minutes of the game to two per team, down from three per team.
…
“[Previous changes] in essence quietly got the length of our game down from two hours and 23 minutes to about two hours and 15 minutes, so we are pretty happy with the length of the game,” Silver said at the board of governors news conference in Las Vegas. “[With this latest rules change] we were more focused on the pace and flow of the game and what we heard from our fans and many of our teams, what we heard was that the end of the games in particular were too choppy.”
“So we think these new changes will have a significant impact, especially at the end of the game,” Silver said. “Overall we go from 18 to 14 timeouts but we have reduced the number of timeouts by four in the last two minutes of the game. Now in the last three minutes of games, each team will have two timeouts. That is significantly down. We will see how that works.” Each team will get seven timeouts per game with no restrictions per half. Previously a “full” timeout was 90 seconds” and a “20-second” timeout was 60 seconds. Now, both will be replaced with 75-second team timeouts.
So why was it called a 20-second timeout?
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“So why was it called a 20-second timeout?”
Because we live in a post factual world now?
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20046154/ncaa-tournament-committee-emphasize-quality-road-wins-next-season
The NCAA’s MBB selection committee is revising their selection criteria for the 2017-18 tournament. There will be less focus on RPI and more on where games are played.
The men’s basketball selection committee will put a greater emphasis on quality road wins beginning next season, the NCAA announced on Friday.
Next year, teams aiming for the NCAA tournament will be evaluated according to quality home wins (top 30 in the RPI), neutral site wins (top 50) and road wins (top 75). The tiers expand from there with the same criteria.
A team that beats an opponent rated 50th on the road will get more credit for that victory than it would for a home win over a squad ranked 40th in the eyes of the committee. The change will also ensure teams will not suffer the same penalties for road losses as they do for home wins in the selection process.
“We consulted with experts within the coaching and analytics fields who looked at historical data, based on winning percentages by game location, to come up with these dividing lines within each of the columns,” Michigan State athletic director Mark Hollis, the current chair of the committee, said in the release. “The emphasis of performing well on the road is important, as was the need for teams not to be penalized as much for road losses. Beating elite competition, regardless of the game location, will still be rewarded, but the committee wanted the team sheets to reflect that a road game against a team ranked 60th is mathematically more difficult and of higher quality than a home game versus a team ranked 35th. We feel this change accomplishes that.”
Translation: It’s harder to win on the road and it’s time to accurately acknowledge that within the evaluation process.
The move also signals an ongoing move away from the RPI, largely a raw strength-of-schedule metric that values quality wins and minimizes the impact of location, as a significant factor in the committee’s decisions. Per the NCAA release, the committee expects to employ a new composite metric by the 2018-19 season after meeting with various experts in recent months.
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http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-07-03/when-are-big-ten-football-media-days
The guest list for B10 media days is out and it’s a little disappointing to me. Only 4 QBs are going (Lagow – IN, Lee – NE, Thorson – NW, Blough, PU).
By position:
QB – 4
RB – 4
WR – 3
TE – 2
OL – 6 (5 OL, 1 C)
DL – 4 (2 DT, 1 DE, 1 DL)
LB – 13
DB – 6 (3 CB, 2 S, 1 DB)
Leave it to the B10 to bring 13 LBs and only 4 QBs. No offense to LBs, but QB is the most important position on the team. I understand not bringing a QB if you have a battle in camp for the starting spot but the other 10 teams don’t all fit that bill. The top 2 QBs (Barrett, McSorley) in the conference aren’t even going. Teams need to better than that. I wish the B10 would pick 2 of the 3 players and let the coach choose the third (allowing some veto power by the schools in certain circumstances).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20071906/former-penn-state-officials-gary-schultz-tim-curley-begin-jail-terms-jerry-sandusky-case
Tim Curley and Gary Schultz have started their brief prison sentences. Graham Spanier is still free on bail while he appeals his brief sentence.
What’s a little odd is this:
Spanier continues to be a tenured faculty member and is on administrative leave. A deal with the university when he was forced out as president after Sandusky’s arrest in November 2011 pays him $600,000 a year, ending this fall, after which he will receive a salary.
Why is he still a tenured faculty member after being convicted? I understand if they have to pay him for legal reasons, but shouldn’t they also terminate his employment?
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http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/129505/ohio-state-is-no-1-in-preseason-fpi-1-0
ESPN’s preseason FPI is out. It has no value, but it’s the off-season so we take what we can get.
Preseason FPI is designed to take the guesswork out of preseason ratings. It is an automated ranking intended to measure team strength going forward. It is not a ranking of who will have the highest win total (which is dependent on schedule) or who is most likely to make the College Football Playoff.
The model comprises four major components: the last four seasons of performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent season counting most; information on offensive and defensive returning starters, with special consideration given to a team returning its starting quarterback or gaining a transfer quarterback with experience; a four-year average recruiting ranking of four systems (ESPN, Scouts, Rivals and Phil Steele); and head coaching tenure. These four components interact and are assigned different weights depending on the team to produce preseason FPI.
1. OSU – 28.9 (#2 O, #2 D)
2. AL – 25.9 (#9 O, #1 D)
3. OU – 24.5 (#1 O, #20 D)
4. FSU – 24.3 (#3 O, #4 D)
5. AU – 21.5 (#5 O, #10 D)
6. LSU – 19.6
7. Clemson – 19.6
8. PSU -18.9
9. UW – 18.7
10. WI – 17.4
18. MI
29. NW
39. IA
57. NE
58. MSU
60. IN
61. MN
69. UMD
83. IL
88. RU
98. PU
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/notre-dame/2017/07/14/q-a-notre-dame-ad-no-reason-we-cant-compete-national-championship/467734001/
A Q&A with ND AD John Swarbrick.
Q: Switching gears, what would it take for Notre Dame to join the ACC full time in football?
A: You can always weigh some circumstance that would do it, but we don’t think that way and we are very comfortable with and focused on our independence because of the things it does for the university, not for us. If we didn’t have a broadcast partner, that would be one thing. But we have a great relationship with NBC and look forward to that continuing.
I don’t foresee any change in philosophy which would ever cause us to do it.
[On the first day of ACC media days Thursday, conference Commissioner John Swofford was asked this same question. He said Notre Dame joining the ACC as a full member is “not a point of discussion” between the university and the league.
“There wasn’t an expectation that at some point in time Notre Dame would ask for full membership in football,” Swofford said. “That is not a point of discussion at this given point in time. Obviously, if Notre Dame reached the point where they wanted to have that discussion, we would readily sit down and speak with them about that.”]
Q:Have you found that not having a 13th game or winning a conference is hurting Notre Dame as it pertains to the College Football Playoff?
A: There will be years where not having a conference championship works against us. We understand that, we factor it into our calculus. But, given the schedules we’re building, I’ll be very comfortable arguing most years that our 12 games compare favorably with everybody else’s 13. When you say a 13-game schedule is superior to our 12-game schedule, you have to compare all the games. We’re building schedules that I think will stand up to that comparison well. They’ll be very tough to navigate. No one will ever accuse us of backing in with the schedules we’ve built for the future.
…
Q: What kind of opponents do you target?
A: We target SEC or Big 12 opponents because we want conference markers. We’ll always have two Pac 12 markers (in Southern Cal and Stanford), we’ll always have ACC markers; most years we’ll have a Big Ten marker. That’s part of the strategy of saying we’re giving you points of reference to all of our performances against the conferences.
…
Q:The Division I Football Oversight Committee will examine potential changes to the season, including extending it to a 14-week schedule. How do you feel about this?
A: It’s really important to do that. We need the second bye. I think in terms of academic performance and player safety, what we find in those years where we have two byes is it’s a much better situation for the students. So I’m a big proponent of trying to make that work.
I recognize on a lot of campuses that will involve playing a game before students are on campus. In some cases that happens already. You have an absolute limit on the back end with conference championships. You could go in some cases a week later in regular season, but most of it will happen by going a week earlier.
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http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170714/chris-spielman-sues-ohio-state-university-over-use-of-athletes-images
Ohio St. sued by Chris Spielman over using athlete’s images in conjuction with specific sponsors. Seems like a bonehead move by the AD.
“The lawsuit takes issue with 64 banners hung in Ohio Stadium featuring players’ likenesses and a corporate logo for Honda on them, but it also mentions jerseys, photographs, signatures and more.
Spielman also said attaching his name to Honda puts him in a difficult situation given a separate sponsorship deal he has with a local Mazda dealership.
Spielman said he is fine with Ohio State using his name and likeness for non-commercial purposes.”
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While OSU is one of many named defendants, his main complaints are really directed at IMG and Nike who are making the offending ads/items. OSU presumably has final review rights over ads and should’ve caught this but IMG pays OSU for the right to generate marketing materials.
Spielman’s main issue is with IMG, Duncan said, which represents Ohio State in negotiations with such companies as Nike.
“They knew better,” Duncan said of IMG. “They all knew better than to do this, and they can’t do this again in the future.”
Nike is targeted for its “Legends of the Scarlet and Gray” vintage jersey-licensing program and other apparel contracts with Ohio State.
…
“We notified the university of our concerns in November of 2016 and requested meetings,” DiSabato said. “We had a couple of phone calls with IMG and Ohio State. Initially, IMG pointed the finger at Ohio State, saying, ‘They sold it to us, meaning that in the contract we can (use former players’ likenesses on the banners.)′ A couple months later (OSU) said, ‘We’ll just take them down.’ We were like, ‘You don’t have to, but it’s good you’re admitting guilt here, because if you didn’t do anything wrong why would you take them down?’”
Ohio State made a compensatory offer that was in the low six figures, according to a source who asked not to be identified.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/preseason-conference-rankings
CFN ranks the P5 conferences and says there’s essentially no difference between #1 and #5 when you do a simple average of each team’s rating.
1. SEC – 58.85
2. P12 – 58.75
3. B12 – 58.65
4. B10 – 58.64
5. ACC – 58.54
The ACC is 0.5% behind the SEC.
That should make for a fun season in OOC and bowl games.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20087988/commissioner-bob-bowlsby-fires-back-big-12-critics-plans-sign-contract-extension-2024-25
Bob Bowlsby plans to sign an extension with the B12, at least through the end of their current media deal (2024-25).
The commissioner, hired by the Big 12 in 2012, said he’s set to sign a contract extension through 2024-25.
“I like what I’m doing,” Bowlsby said. “I like the schools. The board has been very good to me. They’ve been very supportive.”
The Big 12 board of directors wants Bowlsby in place when media rights are discussed in six to seven years, he said.
“It’s not a coincidence,” Bowlsby said. “They want continuity, and I think they believe that I’m the right person to go through the process of looking for the right opportunities, optimizing our opportunities and then capitalizing on it from a financial standpoint.
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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/07/17/Media/Sports-media.aspx
40% more people watch football away from home? ESPN and Fox like that.
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It’s always seemed strange that they made no attempt to account for TV viewing away from home. Plenty of people watch sports on TV while at a friend’s place, in a hotel room, at a bar/restaurant, etc. Perhaps they assumed it was a small number like streaming, but even that number is rising quickly.
It’s not clear how much more people will pay based on these new audience numbers, though. Some number of them are probably already priced into the current model, plus you don’t know how much attention people at a bar/restaurant are paying just because the game is on. Maybe 40% more viewers (all out of the home viewers) is worth 10% more ad revenue. Maybe a little more because of the demographics.
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http://www.espn.com/blog/sec/post/_/id/129803/can-college-football-do-anything-about-the-length-of-games
Can and should CFB do anything to control the length of games?
“Halftime across the board in all regular-season games will be 20 minutes,” Big 12 coordinator of officials Walt Anderson said. “Period. End of story.”
That means that coaches better hustle out of their halftime TV interviews if they want to address their team for more than a few minutes before the start of the third quarter. And if they feel the walk from the field to the locker room is too long, then they might want to look into finding a better, more efficient route, Anderson said.
In February, the NCAA rules committee will take a comprehensive look at the time of games, which, according to Anderson, will include “actual game time” and the “number of plays.” But for now, conferences are trying to work within the current framework to shave time off games.
…
“Where we can hustle within the game,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said, “let’s hustle within the game.”
Sankey, for his part, wasn’t troubled so much by the 3:24 average of games last season as he was by the 30- to 40-percent variance in time. The shortest game, he said, was 2:55 while some games lasted nearly an hour longer than that.
According to ACC commissioner John Swofford, every bit counts. Which means losing what he calls “de facto timeouts” at the start of the third quarter and holding TV partners to their pre-defined commercial time and “not another minute.”
…
“We need to look ahead,” Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott told ESPN in January. “We shouldn’t wait until there’s a problem.”
The average length of games has gone up seven minutes during the past four seasons, and the 2016 season opener between Cal and Hawaii came in at just shy of four hours.
Everyone seems to agree that the game is healthy overall, and coaches aren’t necessarily itching for change. But with more and more passing offenses leading to more and more first-down stops, there’s some worry that those four-hour games could become a regular occurrence.
“People are concerned about the time,” SEC coordinator of officials Steve Shaw said. “But the question being asked by the rules committee is, ‘What is the optimal time?’ Nobody’s really answered that question yet. Everybody knows it’s creeping up.”
…
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, who believes that 3:25 should be the goal, says that they’ve spoken to the NFL about the ways it has shortened games and studied Division II and III football, whose games are all below three hours.
Fulfilling the needs of TV partners and maintaining the pageantry of the game is where the balancing act comes in.
“Therein lies the art form,” Bowlsby said. “That’s why we’re spending a lot of time listening to coaches, because nobody wants to do that.”
I wonder if all sports aren’t going to end up with a defined length running clock like soccer but without the added injury time except for major injuries. It seems like the easiest way to control game length. Make each quarter 45 minutes long and take 20 minutes for halftime to result in a 3:20 game. That gives a few minutes for intro blather from the talking heads and a few minutes in the studio after the game.
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The renovated Cole Field House (aka Maryland’s football indoor facility) is nearly done, and looks impressive: https://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps-football/2017/7/20/16002176/cole-field-house-new-indoor-practice-facility-wow
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http://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ole-miss-coach-hugh-freeze-resigns-amid-explosive-new-information/
Hugh Freeze has resigned from Ole Miss. Apparently breaking all kinds of NCAA rules wasn’t enough to drive him to quit or drive the AD to fire him, but a 1 minute phone call from his university-provided phone to an “escort” service was too much to take.
The Rebels have publicly stood behind Freeze even through the NCAA investigation that has resulted in the finding of major violations and a postseason ban for the 2017 season. According to USA Today, a “one-minute call made from Freeze’s University-issued phone to a number associated with a female escort service” has come to light as a part of the university’s ongoing legal battle with former coach Houston Nutt. CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd has confirmed this report.
Freeze claims the call was a “misdial,” and sources confirm this is also the explanation he has given to his superiors.
“I’ve got no idea, to be honest,” Freeze told Yahoo Sports when asked about the call. “I was in an 813 area code and that was a 313 number, I think that might have been a misdial. I don’t think there was even a conversation. There’s nothing to it.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20117453/hugh-freeze-ole-miss-rebels-resigns-escort-service-calls-cited
ESPN is saying that Ole Miss found a pattern of calls that bother ed them.
Ole Miss football coach Hugh Freeze resigned effectively immediately on Thursday night, with the Rebels’ athletic director telling ESPN that university officials found a “troubling” pattern of calls on a university-issued phone to a number associated with a female escort service.
…
Ole Miss AD Ross Bjork told ESPN that once the university officials dove deeper into Freeze’s phone records, going back as far as shortly after he was hired in 2012, they started finding more of a pattern with phone calls of the nature USA Today earlier reported.
“Once we looked at the rest of the phone records we found a pattern,” Bjork told ESPN. “It was troubling.”
…
Bjork wouldn’t say how many phone calls were made to numbers similar to the one made to the female escort service or how far back the phone calls went. He also said that not all of them were connected to different escort services like the one in the USA Today report, but that they were similar in nature.
They don’t care about all the NCAA violations, but brief phone calls to escorts are unacceptable? Do they expect people to believe that?
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More on the Mississippi Freeze-out, this from the Guardian (yet another example of what happens when a non-king program gets too good, too fast): https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2017/jul/20/ole-miss-coach-hugh-freeze-resigns-escort-call-reports?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+USA+-+Collections+2017&utm_term=236017&subid=12722883&CMP=GT_US_collection
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Do you really think he was calling the escorts for himself? See Louisville.
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I believe he’s hypocritical enough to do so, yes. I don’t preclude the idea he was calling them for recruits but there is no evidence to support that (yet). I’d tend to think he’s at least have a helper who made the actual calls if they were for the recruits, though.
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http://www.omaha.com/livewellnebraska/anonymous-donor-buys-data-tracking-helmets-for-every-ops-high/article_860ad184-6e44-11e7-914d-8f7ccedc76be.html
Cleveland.com’s annual Big Ten Preseason Poll
EAST
1. Ohio State (34) – 260 pts
2. Penn State (7) – 231.5
3. Michigan (1) – 192
4. Michigan State – 128
5. Indiana – 114
6. Maryland – 100.5
7. Rutgers – 38
WEST
1. Wisconsin (31) – 259 pts
2. Northwestern (5) – 219
3. Nebraska (2) – 176.5
4. Iowa – 164.5
5. Minnesota – 131
6t. Illinois – 57
6t. Purdue – 57
BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Ohio State def. Wisconsin – 22
Ohio State def. Northwestern – 5
Penn State def. Wisconsin – 4
Wisconsin def. Ohio State – 3
Ohio State def. Nebraska – 2
Wisconsin def. Penn State – 1
Michigan def. Wisconsin – 1
In the six years that this poll has been conducted with the league’s media, it has yet to accurately predict the Big Ten champion
PRESEASON OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
1. RB – Saquon Barkley, Penn State (30) – 130 pts
2. QB – J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (5) – 59
3. QB – Trace McSorley, Penn State (2) – 30
4. RB – Justin Jackson, Northwestern (1) – 25
5t. RB – Mike Weber, Ohio State – 2
5t. RB – L.J. Scott, Michigan State – 2
5t. QB – Alex Hornibrook, Wisconsin – 2
5t. RB – Rodney Smith, Minnesota – 2
9t. TE – Troy Fumagalli, Wisconsin – 1
9t. WR – Simmie Cobbs, Indiana – 1
9t. OT – Jamarco Jones, Ohio State – 1
PRESEASON DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
1. DE – Tyquan Lewis, Ohio State (11) – 61 pts
2. LB – Josey Jewell, Iowa (12) – 59
3. DE – Rashan Gary, Michigan (3) – 23
4. LB – Tegray Scales, Indiana (4) – 19
5. LB – Jerome Baker, Ohio State (2) – 12
6. DE – Sam Hubbard, Ohio State (2) – 11
7. LB – Jack Cichy, Wisconsin (1) – 10
8t. DT – Maurice Hurst, Michigan (1) – 9
8t. S – Marcus Allen, Penn State – 9
10. LB – T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin (1) – 7
11. DE – Nick Bosa, Ohio State (1) – 4
12. S – Godwin Igwebuike, Northwestern – 2
13t. DT – Steven Richardson, Minnesota – 1
13t. CB – Blessuan Austin, Rutgers – 1
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Here is the correct link:
http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/07/ohio_state_buckeyes_picked_to.html#incart_2box
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But they were close twice. In 2011 NE won the voting 12-11 over eventual winner WI and in 2014 OSU won the initial vote but they re-voted after Miller hurt his shoulder.
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Hi Frank, interesting post and comments. A few thoughts on Miami University, since that has elicited a number of comments.
First off, I do not live in Chicago. I live in upstate New York. Not exactly comparable to Chicago in terms of population density, although New York, like Illinois, is a net exporter of college students. In New York’s case, the issue isn’t over-centralization of public universities, but an extremely late start in providing public post-secondary education at all. SUNY didn’t even exist, for all intents and purposes, until the 1960’s.
Like the study you cited, a number of college students in this area attend, or at least have considered attending, Miami University. In fact, I believe Miami is the top out-of-state public school destination for college students in this area.
Turning to Miami University itself, I note that among public universities in Ohio, there is one behemoth (Ohio State) and then there is everyone else. “Everyone else,” in this case, includes Cincinnati, fully half of the MAC (Akron, Bowling Green, Kent, Miami, Ohio U., and Toledo), some schools with DI athletics but no FBS football (Cleveland State and Wright State come to mind), and likely some options which do not have DI athletics. While this is only an educated guess on my part, it seems to me that Miami University may be marketing itself to out-of-state students as a way of separating itself from “everyone else.” The behemoth, of course, doesn’t need to do that.
Anyway, that may go a little way toward explaining the data in your study, as well as what goes on where I live.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-big-ten-espn-fox-sports-20170724-story.html
Apparently the TV deals are now finalized.
The Big Ten formally announced its new six-year partnership with ESPN and Fox Sports, a deal worth a reported $2.64 billion that industry analysts view as a victory for the league.
News of the agreement got out more than a year ago, but commissioner Jim Delany delayed the unveiling until Monday.
“We have labored in bringing our agreements to maturity,” he said. “The (game) selection, I wouldn’t say, is tricky. But it is sensitive. Any change requires you to go back.”
…
[Fox Sports executive] Jones said of ESPN: “Sometimes we can play in the same sandbox…We can work with ESPN to promote a great conference.”
Also, BTN hired some new former players.
BTN has hired former Big Ten stars Corey Wootton (Northwestern), James Laurinaitis (Ohio State) and Braylon Edwards (Michigan) to its broadcast team. BTN president Mark Silverman said Laurinaitis “had perhaps the best screen test I’ve ever seen.”
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https://sports.yahoo.com/jim-delany-confirms-big-tens-massive-tv-deals-adjustment-fcs-scheduling-policy-191628285.html
More on the media deals including a change to the I-AA scheduling policy.
Also, BTN will now be on Hulu and YouTube TV.
“As we prepared for this negotiation, we not only did a lot of research but we spent a lot of time with our institutions to identify what they thought they could do in this area, because we weren’t about to sell something that we didn’t think we could do,” Delany said. “In concert with athletic directors and university presidents, each school sort of identified what they thought they could do. And from that we were able to identify what we were going to be able to do with our partners. So I expect there to be more primetime.”
Delany also confirmed that the league’s deal with Big Ten Network has been “restructured and extended through 2032.”
In one other bit of news, Delany confirmed an adjustment to the league’s scheduling philosophy that emerged last week in an interview with North Dakota State athletic director Matt Larsen. Larsen told The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead that the Big Ten will once again allow its members to schedule games with FCS opponents. Delany confirmed this, adding that it can only be done during seasons where a team plays four conference home games.
Delany was clear about the league’s intentions when it decided two years ago not to allow FCS teams on schedules. However, there were some unforeseen consequences.
“We had adopted a policy of no FCS for a variety of reasons, including to enhance television and to strengthen packages for season ticket holders and also to enhance television product, and also to impress the College Football Playoff committee,” Delany said
“Now after watching things play out over the last three years, we noted that we were the only conference to go totally in that direction. We have never really gotten there because we had long existing contracts. When we went to nine (conference) games, we did not anticipate the problems that some of our schools would have in years that they only had four conference home games — it was very difficult for them to get three FBS opponents onto their schedules if they were looking for seven home games.”
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-notre-dame-wisconsin-football-soldier-field-20170724-story.html
ND and WI are discussing a 2 game series – one at Soldier Field, the other at Lambeau Field. The hope to play it in the 2020s but it’s always tough to schedule these things.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/07/24/sun-belt-chief-hails-benefits-of-future-10-team-structure/103964662/
The SB seems excited about dropping from 12 to 10 teams in 2018 and has no plans to expand again.
Smaller will be better was the message from Benson, who left little doubt during the league’s annual media day that his preference is for the Sun Belt to maintain the 10-team, two-division structure it will have in 2018.
“We are not actively looking or have any signals out there that we would entertain any new members,” Benson said. “We got to 10 in a very methodical, thoughtful way. … We have no interest in looking elsewhere.”
…
That is when Benson envisions the Sun Belt being at its best. Its geographic alignment will be more practical, reducing travel burdens on teams and fans alike while also promoting regional rivalries, he said.
“We believe the structure we’ve created (for 2018) is the right structure,” Benson said. “It’s sustainable.”
There are some cases in which Benson may not be able to prevent growth. The Sun Belt has two non-football members, Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-Arlington. If either of those schools adds football — something UALR is exploring — the Sun Belt would have to accept it.
If that happens, Benson doesn’t plan to search for a 12th football member to even out the divisions.
“The Big Ten was an 11-team football league for over 15 years,” Benson said. “They did just fine.”
…
In recent years, Benson has urged Sun Belt teams to play no more than one game per season against a power conference team, at least two games against peer conferences and one game against an FCS program. In essence, he’s asking Sun Belt teams to limit the big individual paydays they get from playing Power 5 teams for the sake of building up win totals across the league.
The results have already begun to show, Benson said. Last season, six Sun Belt teams played in bowl games and four were victorious. Placing more teams in bowls means more money from agreements with the College Football Playoff, which last year accounted for nearly half of the Sun Belt’s $31 million in gross revenue.
“Our financial models are built on success in the College Football Playoff,” Benson said.
For that reason, he’s also urging Sun Belt teams to be cautious about scheduling Tuesday night games. He’s not convinced the benefits of national TV exposure always outweigh the challenges mid-week games create for teams and fans.
So if other G5 schools also back off from weekday games and payday games, how does that change CFB? Do the P5 get pressured to play on weeknights? Do more P5s play 9 conference games?
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/072417aaa.html
The B10 doesn’t do a preseason all-conference team like everyone else but they do put out a 10 player watch list.
EAST DIVISION
Tegray Scales, Sr., LB, IND
J.T. Barrett, Sr., QB, OSU
Tyquan Lewis, Sr., DE, OSU
Saquon Barkley, Jr., RB, PSU
Trace McSorley, Sr., QB, PSU
WEST DIVISION
Josey Jewell, Sr., LB, IOWA
Goodwin Igwebuike, Sr., S, NU
Justin Jackson, Sr., RB, NU
Jack Cichy, Sr., LB, WIS
Troy Fumagalli, Sr., TE, WIS
2 from NW and none from NE or MI. Ouch.
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More from B10 media days:
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/big-ten-s-television-deals-confirmed-friday-night-games-receive/article_76e58c70-7098-11e7-ab22-8751e75b0d88.html
The Big Ten will begin playing Friday night football games this fall, but Delany acknowledged the league has received considerable blowback for playing on what traditionally has been the night for high school football.
…
In the future, Delany said, he expects just two Friday games per year beyond Labor Day weekend, with as much as 10 months’ notice for schools to prepare.
As for the total number of night football games, the Big Ten in recent years has had roughly 15 to 18 such kickoffs. Delany said “the low 20s” is the probable number in the future.
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs/big-ten-media-days-btn-expands-to-internet-streaming-services/article_da184808-7090-11e7-87fa-67e7011bbf8a.html
» BTN will be available this fall on Hulu, YouTube TV, PlayStation Vue and DirecTV Now — all over-the-top, Internet broadcasters. The decision addresses declining numbers in cable subscribers, who are “cutting the cord” or not signing up for cable at all.
» For the first year, BTN will feature a woman, Lisa Byington, calling play-by-play during a football telecast. Byington will do the Sept. 16 Northwestern-Bowling Green game.
…
» BTN games will be televised on the Fox Sports Go app as well as the BTN2Go app.
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/shatel-huskers-shouldn-t-feel-obligated-to-play-in-big/article_89e0b3a1-98c0-5b58-84ed-763e6583e7c0.html
Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany and Big Ten Network chief Mark Silverman both said the right things on Monday at Big Ten media days on the topic of the league moving games to Friday night this season — including Nebraska at Illinois on Sept. 29.
They were surprised at the negative feedback. They sympathize with the fans and high school teams. They’re going to take a hard look at how it goes this season.
But Silverman offered a frank prediction: it’s not going away.
“I don’t know if I’d call this a test,” he said. “I’d be surprised if it completely goes away. There’s only two this year, other than opening weekend. I would expect there to be one or two games after opening weekend in the future.
“My guess is it won’t be the same schools, unless they want to. The conference tries to do things fairly.”
…
What’s interesting about this is that Silverman said the network honchos didn’t bring this to the Big Ten. The league office came up with the idea, wanting to be proactive in showcasing Big Ten football. It polled the schools on how they felt.
Delany said, “Some said no, some said maybe and some said they would consider it.” Silverman said there were a handful of schools that said they would consider it and then changed to a flat “no.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20164007/alabama-crimson-tide-coach-nick-saban-envisions-changes-college-football-playoff
Nick Saban is renewing his push for P5 teams to only play other P5 teams. He’d also like to eliminate the 6 win rule to make a bowl and instead use a power ranking of some sort to reward tougher scheduling rather than easy wins.
“We should play all teams in the Power 5 conferences,” Saban said Wednesday. “If we did that, then if we were going to have bowl games, we should do the bowl games just like we do in the NCAA basketball tournament — not by record but by some kind of power rating that gets you in a bowl game. If we did that, people would be a little less interested in maybe bowl games and more interested in expanding the playoff.”
“You eliminate the six wins to get in a bowl game and now you can have a different kind of scheduling that is more fan interest, more good games, bring out the better quality team,” he said, “and whether you expand the playoff or have a system where it’s like now — we take the top 12 teams and decide what bowl game they go to — just take them all.
“In this scenario, there would be more opportunity to play more teams in your league, as well as to have more games that people would be interested in. We all play three or four games a year now that nobody’s really interested in. We’d have more good games, more public interest, more fan interest, better TV.”
Saban suggested a 10-game SEC schedule, for example, plus two Power 5 nonconference opponents during the regular season.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/poking-holes-in-nick-sabans-suggestion-for-a-revamped-college-football-schedule/
Tom Fornelli looks at the cons of Saban’s ideas.
I’m good with conferences expanding schedules, but the idea of only playing other Power Five teams concerns me a bit. I’d love that there would be so many more “big games,” but I also worry about what those games would do to the Group of Five conferences.
I understand that these conferences and schools aren’t as popular as most of the schools in the Power Five, but they’re also one of the aspects of college football that make it special and unique. I think you’d do irreparable damage to those schools if you did not allow them to play Power Five opponents, and I’m not sure they’d be financially solvent in the long run without the ability to do so.
It’s also a reason I’m not really into Saban’s idea of ditching the six-win requirement for bowl games. Yes, an immediate effect of dropping the rule would probably be schools being more willing to schedule tougher games. The not-so-immediate effects could cause a lot of problems, however.
First of all, even if they aren’t as important to the general fan as they used to be, bowl games are still a reward for the players. Some more so than others, sure, but not every team can win a conference or play in the College Football Playoff. Bowl games give teams something for which to strive — a reason to feel they’ve accomplished something. If you go to a full selection committee for bowl games than we’re just going to see a lot of 5-7 and 4-8 Power Five teams chosen over more deserving Group of Five schools. Which, again, would do a lot of damage to football at the Group of Five level. That’s just not something I’m interested in seeing happen.
As for Saban’s idea to expand the playoff, I’m against that as well, and I always will be. It’s not that I don’t enjoy the idea of an eight-team playoff and the games it would create, it’s that we’re already asking these players to play 13 games a season with the bowls. Some teams play 14 if they have a conference championship game, too. Hell, to win a national title, teams have to play 15 games.
I’m not supporting the idea of asking them to play any more games than they already do.
I’m also against playoff expansion. I haven’t seen any evidence that it is needed and it may not be all that profitable. I do like Saban’s idea of starting the playoff earlier, though. Play the semifinals before Christmas and the NCG on 1/1 @ 8pm.
I agree it’ll hurt the G5 financially not to play the P5, but in every other way I think the G5 could benefit from being their own division. Playing for the G5 championship is much more realistic and affordable than trying to keep up with the P5. That said, I like P5/G5 games and don’t feel a need to get rid of them entirely. I think 9 conference games + 2 P5 OOC games + 1 G5 OOC game would make for a good compromise. But maybe it’s better just to separate them and have the P5 pay them $100M per year instead of playing the games.
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If P5 scheduling was restricted to those five conferences (plus Notre Dame) could OOC games be rotated aside from “traditional” non-conference games? By “traditional,” I mean the likes of Notre Dame-Southern Cal, Iowa State-Iowa, Georgia Tech-Georgia, South Carolina-Clemson, Florida State-Florida and so on — games that have been scheduled annually for at least 40 years. (ISU-Iowa resumed their meeting in 1977 after not having met in football since 1934.) I presume ND would get a dispensation for Navy, though not for Stanford.
As a college football fan, were something like this to happen (and it’s almost certainly a longshot), I’d like to see it set up so that conference-vs.-conference matchups be rotated. For example, one year Maryland’s three OOC games would be against teams from the ACC, Big 12 and SEC. The following year, the Pac goes on the Terps’ schedule, bumping a game vs. one of the other three conferences above. You’ll never have a perfect rotation of matchups — this isn’t like MLB’s interleague play — but it would result in some matchups that otherwise might never occur (e.g., Iowa State vs. Cal, Minnesota vs. Mississippi State). Your thoughts?
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vp19,
Theoretically you could, but they would drift since the conferences are different sizes.
The big problem is that every school wants specific things in their scheduling and I don’t think most of them can be kept happy this way.
If this was the way scheduling was going to work, I’d suggest 2 conference challenges for each conference and then use the 3rd game to work around the locked rivalries.
Locked:
1. ACC/SEC – they already play 4 games, so build on that
2. B10/P12 – longstanding partners
3. B12/P12 – keeps some regional play in the southwest and limit P12 travel a little
Rotating:
4a. ACC/B10
5a. B12/SEC
or
4b. ACC/B12
5b. B10/SEC
By having 2 conference competitions you get a decent sense of how the conferences stack up. That helps the CFP committee later in the season.
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https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2017/07/25/big-12-player-survey-want-expansion-team-overwhelming-favorite-add
24 B12 players were surveyed anonymously as part of media days.
75% want the B12 to expand with UH as their top choice (12 of 24 votes). The next choices were BYU and NE with 3 votes each.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2017/07/27/big-12-football-players-survey-racially-taunted/517325001/
Unfortunately, 11 of the 24 said they had been taunted racially or ethnically by players or fans during games.
Respondents said West Virginia was cited as the most frequent place where players allegedly heard the race-based taunts.
West Virginia is also had the distinction of being the least-favorite place to play; nine of the respondents picked the Mountaineers’ Milan Puskar Stadium. Texas Tech was second (seven votes), followed by Oklahoma State (five).
“They are brutal there,” one player said of West Virginia. “They say a lot of stuff there. There’s no filter on their fans at all. I’ve heard everything.”
It’s probably not a shock that rural schools and fan bases have more racial taunting, but it’s unfortunate players are still having to deal with that.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/go-houston-lines-corporate-sponsorship-bud-light.html
Apparently it’s becoming a trend in Texas. Bud Light is now the official beer of UH Athletics.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/20175509/nfl-donation-brain-research-falls-apart-nih-appears-set-move-bulk-30-million-donation
This is a bad look for the NFL. They touted their partnership with the NIH and brain research and now the NIH is dropping them and over half of the money the NFL donated because the NFL was so hard to work with.
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The studies were done on donated brains of individuals who exhibited dementia in life. There is no way of telling how extensive brain damage is among all NFL and college players, but these brains represent a minimum. Of course, at this point, the NIH’s own credibility demands that it separate itself from the NFL.
In the long run, the only solution is to eliminate high-speed contact and all head contact. The result would be a game more like rugby, but with passing and set plays. That might actually be a more open, high-scoring game, and while not macho football might be interesting. I, for one, never enjoyed seeing players carried off the field. I saw the Theisman broken leg play on TV, and I was at the OSU/PSU game where Adam Taliaferro was paralyzed. The game doesn’t need those kinds of plays.
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This decision is about that latest study to come out.
NIH officials decided months ago to let the agreement expire in August with more than half of the money unused, following a bitter dispute in 2015 in which the NFL backed out of a major study that had been awarded to a researcher who had been critical of the league, Outside the Lines has learned.
The expected NFL-NIH breakup would mark an uneasy conclusion to an initiative often billed as the largest single donation in NFL history. In the end, the NIH has signaled its willingness to leave approximately $16 million on the table, a measure of the mistrust that built up following the league’s unsuccessful efforts to rescind funding awarded to a group led by Robert Stern, a Boston University neuroscientist.
…
“The NFL’s agreement with [the funding arm of the NIH] ends August 31, 2017, and there are no current research plans for the funds remaining from the original $30 million NFL commitment,” the NIH’s statement reads. “NIH is currently funding concussion research directly.
“If [the] NFL wishes to continue to support research at NIH, a simple donation to the NIH Gift Fund to support research on sports medicine would be favorably viewed, as long as the terms provided broad latitude in decisions about specific research programs.”
Under the original partnership with the NFL, the league retained veto power over how its $30 million donation could be used.
…
House Energy and Commerce ranking member Frank Pallone Jr., D-N.J., — a co-author on the letter sent to the NFL — said Thursday “it’s disappointing that the NFL’s inappropriate actions soured the relationship to the point where it appears that NIH couldn’t see a path forward. However, at a time when there’s a desperate need for research dollars, I strongly encourage the NIH and NFL to work to use the remaining funding that the NFL committed to support critical research that could help protect current, former and future football players.”
…
The dispute over the $16 million grant awarded to a group to be led by Stern erupted in late 2015. The money was earmarked for research to find CTE in living patients; the disease currently can only be diagnosed post-mortem. According to reporting by Outside the Lines and a separate congressional report, several NFL health officials tried to persuade the NIH to rescind the award, including Jeff Miller, the NFL’s senior vice president for health and safety; Dr. Richard Ellenbogen, co-chairman of the Head, Neck and Spine Committee; and Dr. Mitch Berger, chairman of the subcommittee on the long-term effects of brain and spine injury. The NFL tried to redirect the funding to a group that included researchers affiliated with the league, the congressional report concluded.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/espn/disney-carriage-negotiations-espn-subscribers-fees.html
Disney is about to start their next round of carriage negotiations and they have several tools they may use to change the narrative around ESPN.
And research firm MoffettNathanson thinks Disney has the leverage to further raise its annual price increases, boost its minimum penetration thresholds to regain subscribers, or both, which could dramatically improve ESPN’s bottom line:
“Assuming Disney already increases the prices it charges cable and satellite companies for ESPN by 5% a year, bumping that up to 6% as it signs new deals would boost fee revenue by 4% a year to $12.56 billion from 2016 to 2022, MoffettNathanson estimates.
…
There may be other levers at Disney’s disposal, including the August 2019 launch of the ACC Network for which ESPN will split the profits with the Atlantic Coast Conference. Another is Disney’s planned streaming service with BAMTech, which will feature sports that don’t appear on ESPN’s TV channels. If all of this goes in Disney’s favor, its compound annual growth rate for domestic cable revenue from affiliate fees would be 6%, MoffettNathanson estimates.”
…
That last paragraph is perhaps particularly interesting, as it illustrates an undercovered element of the ESPN financial story; the network’s an important part of the much larger Disney empire, but it’s still only one part. And while an isolated bottom-line scenario would say Disney gets the same result from a dollar made at ESPN as at ABC, the world isn’t an isolated system. For one thing, even if the dollars were an exact tradeoff, there’s the perception element to consider; all the negativity about ESPN has been weighing down Disney’s stock, so a win for ESPN at the expense of ABC might be better for the overall company even if the dollars were exactly the same.
…
Keep in mind the reported decreased internal emphasis on the likes of ESPNews and ESPN Classic, too; Disney could hike up the price, threshold or both for the main ESPN network, but give distributors a break on those smaller channels as part of the negotiations, and that would probably work out decently for the company overall (those smaller channels aren’t highly-watched, so deemphasizing them isn’t necessarily a big loss, and getting more subscribers to ESPN back not only helps with per-subscriber fees, it also likely helps with ratings, and thus, with ad revenue).
…
The last big round of negotiations came in 2012, where ESPN lowered its required penetration thresholds in exchange for a big per-subscriber fee boost; that made some sense at the time, but the increasing numbers of skinny bundle options that have sprouted since then have made it easier for people to get pay TV without ESPN (MoffettNathanson estimates they have 89 per cent penetration across pay TV now, a six-point drop since 2013). These will be the first negotiations under the new ecosystem, and they could be a chance to raise that penetration threshold again. They’ll also be the first talks with ESPN’s giant NBA, NFL and College Football Playoff deals factored in, something they’ll surely use to try and justify a significant rate increase. And the Disney empire having all of its networks in the same negotiation is helpful, too, allowing for a lot of potential tradeoffs that could aid ESPN. We’ll see how this goes, but these negotiations may play a significant role in what’s next for the Worldwide Leader.
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The biggest problem that Disney ( and the rest of the entertainment industry) has is they no longer care and ( or) understand the American consumer. Why do people cut the cord? One is economics. I have a $150 Direct TV bill every month ( Extra package plus premium channels), not easy to afford ( I got rid of Extra Innings and Center Ice for that reason). The other is politics. Millions of us do not like being insulted and called terms like “Stupid Inherently Racist and Deplorable” by the likes of Hillary Clinton and after working long days to pay our bills and want to watch sports as an outlet to our days, have to hear millionaires taking her altitude towards us. I guarantee you that if not for the Nittany Lions, Penguins, Islanders, Yankees and Steelers I would cut the cord completely ( just like millions of other Americans have already done). Until Disney and the rest of the entertainment industry get that, the cord cutting will continue and people will not spend more for the ACC Network or anything else.
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As we head into the season, it’s a good time to think about big picture issues. Only 39 teams have won a I-A national title according to Winsipedia. When will someone new join that club and who might it be?
http://www.winsipedia.com/ranking
The best programs never to win a title:
1. WI
2. ASU
3. WV
4. MO
5. OR
6. Utah
7. NC
8. PU
9. VT
10. Baylor
Several of these have been close recently (OR, WI, Baylor, Utah) but few are still elite. Most of those have no shot this season.
Here’s a projected AP Preseason Top 25:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2723864-projecting-college-football-preseason-top-25-at-the-start-of-fall-camp
The potential new title winners on the list are:
14. UL
16. WV
17. WI
18. KSU
19. USF
24. VT
25. WSU
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Beyond the preseason Top 10, everything would have to fall into place for a newcomer to join the list of national champions.
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True, but that’s always been true. It’s not common for a team outside the preseason top 10 to make the playoff but UW was #14 last year.
I think the playoff system makes it even harder for any new members to join the club. In the old days you just needed a great season and then to win your bowl. Now the season is longer plus you have to win a CCG and 2 bowl games. If it wasn’t for the CFP, Oregon might have a title from 2014 for example.
The most recent new title winners:
1996 – UF
1993 – FSU
1991 – UW
1990 – CO
1984 – BYU
1983 – Miami
1982 – PSU
1981 – Clemson
1980 – UGA
1970 – NE
That’s 10 in 47 seasons and none in the past 21. Is it a coincidence that the BCS started in 1998 with the Bowl Coalition (1992-1994) and Bowl Alliance (1995-1997) before that? Now that you can’t get a weak opponent in a bowl to win the title (BYU over 6-6 Michigan), the barrier is much higher.
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As another data point of how the club has become hard to enter, last year UW became just the 20th program to play with a shot at the national title in the BCS or CFP. That’s 19 seasons and 44 slots.
Several teams could join that list soon. From the Coaches poll: #6 PSU, #9 MI, #10 WI, #11 OkSU, #14 Stanford, #15 UGA, #17 UL, …
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/big-12-needs-12-teams-playoff-spot.html
A math-based argument that the B12 needs to expand to get more playoff spots. It’s based on 2 things:
1. Teams are essentially ranked by their number of losses (he ignores the G5)
2. A full round robin guarantees nobody can miss the best teams
All else equal, teams with different numbers of losses will be judged differently in college football. It’s not even when all else is equal. For a team with more losses to be ranked ahead of a team with fewer losses usually takes something pretty drastic. This is sometimes less true after the bowls, but is certainly true before the bowls.
He’s mostly right but there are more exceptions than he realizes. Let’s look at the final CFP rankings since those are all that matter.
2014: 13-0 FSU was #3 behind 2 12-1 teams
2015: 11-2 Stanford was #6 ahead of 11-1 OSU
2016: 10-2 WV was behind 8-4 AU and 6 3-loss teams
I think 2016 shows the committee considering quality above record. It should also be noted that the teams with the fewest losses will tend to be the best teams so the rankings probably should correlate with losses reasonably well.
The second part of his argument is where I think he goes awry.
Keeping this in mind, it’s easy to recognize the problem that the Big 12 has. Every year, the Big 12 is going to have more losses among its top teams than the other power conferences have. That is a natural product of having only 10 teams and playing a full round-robin schedule. This means there are 45 losses to go around the conference’s 10 teams. This naturally leads to a lack of quality wins in conference.
…
The odds of the conference having four teams with fewer than three losses in conference are astronomically low — it requires almost no upsets from teams in the conference’s bottom half, to start — as there are only a few scenarios that could even allow for it to happen. Teams with three or more losses won’t be highly ranked, which gives the Big 12 champion a maximum two good wins in conference almost every year.
This is actually 2 different arguments combined.
1. 9 conference games means 45 losses but it doesn’t necessarily mean the top B12 teams will have more losses than the top teams in other conferences. All conferences being equal it does mean that the B12 SOS will be higher which might lead to more losses. The B12 could produce 3 teams with 3 combined losses before the CCG (9-0, 8-1, 7-2 or 8-1, 8-1, 8-1). Theoretically the B10 could have just 1 loss combined among the top 3. The B10’s top 3 over the past 3 years have combined for 2, 2 and 4 B10 losses with the B10 considered the strongest when the top 3 had 4 losses.
2. Quality wins (i.e. wins over teams with a good record) depends on the OOC games a lot. If a bunch of B12 teams go 3-0 OOC, then beating them in B12 play will be a quality win.
He’s just wrong here. Again, let’s look at the final CFP rankings:
2014 – the top 3-loss team was #9 and 5 4-loss teams made the top 25
2015 – the top 3-loss team was #12 and 2 4-loss teams made the top 25
2016 – the top 3-loss team was #8 and 7 4-loss teams made the top 25
As for good wins per conference, let’s break down the 2016 top 25:
ACC – 5
B10 – 4
B12 – 3 (in a down season)
P12 – 5
SEC – 5
There are plenty of quality wins available.
Let’s compare this to the SEC and ACC, which are at the opposite extreme. Those two conferences only play eight games and have 14 teams each. This means that those conferences have a very high likelihood of having multiple teams with very few losses. Only two cross-divisional games means that there is a high likelihood of good teams from each division playing only bad teams from the other division — leading to fewer losses by those good teams. This, in turn, leads to more “quality” wins for the other top teams in those divisions.
Yes, the top teams can miss each other. But at least 2 of the top 3 teams will be in the same division and face each other no matter what. Add in certain locked crossover games (FSU/Miami, LSU/UF, …) and it’s not the huge advantage he’s portraying it as. He’s also ignoring the flip side that B12 teams can’t miss the worst B12 teams while ACC and SEC teams can easily miss the worst teams from the other division.
In the Big 12, every team plays every other team. The odds of every team in the top half of the conference playing every other team in the top half of the conference is 100%. The odds of only playing the bottom few teams is 0%. Every team plays every other team, so every top team in the conference will pick up losses against every other top team.
And again, the same can be said of top teams playing the bottom half teams.
Let’s take the SEC and the ACC now. With two cross-divisional games, the chances of any given team playing no teams from the top three of the other division is about 28%. This means that there is a 90% probability that at least one team in each division will avoid the top three teams in the other division. This means about a 38% chance that at least one of the top three teams in the division will only face the weaker teams from the other division. This means an extra quality win or two for the division champion, which means a higher ranking from the selection committee when conference championship weekend comes around.
a. The odds are 29% (28.57%), as in 6 of 21 possible pairings of crossover games. That assumes that all teams are equally likely to be good, of course. Having locked rivals and differences in historical program success makes the number variable in reality.
b. I’m not sure how he’s calculating his 90% (lots of dependent variables) so I didn’t check his number. I did check his 38% against the data.
I looked at the top 3 teams in each ACC and SEC division for 2014-2016. On average 0.92 teams in each division miss the top 3 from the other side (perhaps why they make the top 3 on their own side). It happened in 5 of 6 chances in the ACC but only twice in the SEC (2014 – 2 from each ACC division, 2016 2 from each SEC division, single teams 3 other times). 7/12 = 58%.
More importantly, though, only 3 of 12 division winners missed the top 3 from the other side. Only 3 of 6 times did one team in the top 3 from each division miss all of the top 3 from the other division. 50% is a lot less than 90% and I don’t think it matters if a bottom 4 team misses the toughest crossover games. As long as the crossovers aren’t determining the champion too often, the other top teams are interchangeable. Why should we care if team A or team B ends up as the #3 team in the SEC East based on crossovers? Someone has to finish in that place.
The odds for the Big Ten are a bit lower, with a third cross-divisional game, but the fact remains that there are decent odds of a top team in one (or each) division only playing the weaker teams in the other division.
I’d say he’s off here due to parity-based scheduling. Even in 2014 none of the top 6 missed the top 3 from the other side. Nor did anyone in 2016. With OSU/NE, MI/WI and PSU/IA locked for now (and then rotating) it seems less likely that top teams will luck into an easy schedule.
This still means a good enough chance of more ranked teams in the conference, which means more quality wins in the eyes of the selection committee, and more ranked wins to prop up a Playoff contender.
I don’t think this has any factual basis.
Let’s review something I showed above, the 2016 final CFP rankings by conference:
ACC – 5 = 36%
B10 – 4 = 29%
B12 – 3 = 30% (in a down year)
P12 – 5 = 42%
SEC – 5 = 36%
As he pointed out for the bigger leagues, those top teams can miss the other top teams so they aren’t really getting more quality wins. Plus the new CCG guarantees the B12 champ a better quality win than the other CCGs do since the top 2 teams will always play. I think he undervalues how much that will help the B12 champ get into the CFP.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/07/31/college-football-joins-other-sports-in-keeping-eye-on-clock/104163496/
CFB is looking to shorten games. The P12 are experimenting with shorter halftimes (15 instead of 20 minutes) in some OOC games on the P12N.
Last week, the Pac-12 announced a trial in which some nonconference games on its network this season will feature shorter halftimes — from 20 to 15 minutes — and fewer commercials. The Mid-American Conference also is picking up the pace, and ESPN said it would place greater emphasis on getting in and out of commercials on time and adhering strictly to 20-minute halftimes on games it televises.
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Longer college football games can be attributed to an increase in scoring, offenses that favor the pass over the run and the introduction of video review a decade ago.
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Four of the five teams with the longest games were in the Big 12, where huge offensive numbers are common. Texas Tech averaged an FBS-high 54.4 pass attempts, and the Red Raiders scored and allowed more than 43 points a game. No surprise, they played the longest games in the country at an average of 3:48.
MAC Commissioner Jon Steinbrecher said his goal is to shorten his league’s games from last year’s average of 3:25 to 3:20. There is a directive for the second-half kickoff to happen right after the halftime clock strikes zero, and officials are being instructed to set the ball quicker after each play.
Some stadiums will experiment with TV timeout clocks so fans will know how much time remains until the ball is in play after a media break.
Nick Dawson, ESPN’s vice president of programming and acquisitions, said game length probably is more of a concern to conference and school administrators than to TV people because the schools are worried about keeping stadiums full.
Reducing the number of ads run through a game is unlikely because of the giant rights fees the networks pay for the games, but Dawson said there are ways to tighten telecasts.
“Over the years you tend to get into sort of a rhythm of a commercial break being 2 ½ minutes, but you might ask for a little extra time on the back end to do a certain content piece or graphic or something like that,” he said. “In the moment it doesn’t seem like much. You start to add that up 10, 11, 12 times a game at 30 seconds a pop, it starts to materialize into a real amount of time.”
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LA has agreed to host the 2028 Summer Olympics (Paris gets 2024) and the IOC will pay LA at least $1.8B as part of the deal. It won’t be official until the IOC, USOC and the LA government approve it but everyone seems happy.
Under terms of the agreement between Los Angeles and the IOC, the IOC will make a record payment to Los Angeles of at least $1.8 billion, according to LA 2024, the local bid committee. The IOC payments could exceed $2 billion “when taking into account the estimated value of existing sponsor agreements to be renewed and potential new marketing deals,” LA 2024 said.
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The deal is expected to be approved by the IOC on Sept. 13 in Lima, Peru.
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The agreement also needs to the approval of the Los Angeles City Council and the U.S. Olympic Committee. Both groups are expected to sign off on the deal in the coming days. A city council sub-committee on Los Angeles Olympic bid is scheduled to meet Friday.
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Los Angeles’ bid to host a third Olympic Games comes revolves four Olympic sports parks — downtown, Long Beach, South Bay, the Valley — and stresses a city re-energized and more diverse since hosting the record-setting 1984 Games as well as both the city’s lengthy Olympic history and its 21st Century vision for the Olympic movement.
The 2028 Games will benefit from $88 billion in previously approved infrastructure projects, the $14 billion renovation of Los Angeles International Airport and $120 billion in transit funding approved by Los Angeles County voters last year.
The IOC report repeatedly touches on the region’s wealth of existing Olympic-caliber venues and the city’s unique place at the intersection of the entertainment and technology industries.
“When discussing the main differentiators of both candidatures, the two words the Evaluation Commission often attributed to LA2024 were ‘dynamic’ and ‘futuristic,’” the report said. “Los Angeles is prepared to put its storytelling skills, creative energy and cutting-edge technologies to good use in delivering what it proposes will be a transformative Olympic Games that will thrill and inspire the world, just as some Hollywood masterpieces have done over the generations.”
Ninety-seven percent of Los Angeles’ proposed venues already exist or would be temporary. The commission wrote that “with so many world-class sports facilities at its disposal, the Los Angeles venue inventory exceeds Games’ needs.”
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LA 2024’s plans for the 2024 Games projected a balanced $5.3 billion budget.
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/073117aaa.html
The B10 has released the conference match-ups for the upcoming MBB season.
Some rivalries we only get once:
IN/PU, MI/MSU, IL/NW (one of them made the NCAA and it wasn’t IL)
The B10 really needs to start locking a few key rivalries. If that takes moving to 20 games, then do it.
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OTOH, I don’t want the B1G to be beholden to a few marquee matchups, as the ACC has whored itself for ESPN and Duke-UNC.
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I don’t know. That rivalry was already big before ESPN did anything. What ESPN did was make it national and pay the ACC a lot of money for it. The B10 doesn’t have any hoops rivalries of that caliber (we have it in football instead), so I doubt you’d see the same level of treatment. But the ACC also preserves UNC/NCSU, and that’s the sort of rivalry the B10 has. The ACC has 2 locked rivals for everyone.
Preserving rivalries was one of the focuses in football when discussing divisions after expansion. Shouldn’t MBB get the same consideration? I believe it’s important to preserve rivalries as you expand. IN and PU are both basketball schools and yet the B10 doesn’t protect their MBB rivalry but went out of their way to keep the football game. I know it’s apples and oranges since all MBB teams play at least once, but it just doesn’t seem that hard to preserve a few key games.
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Is part of the problem trying to spread the marquee/brand teams (i.e. IU, MSU) into games at RUT, MD, and NEB at the expense of the 2nd in-state matchup?
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It’s fundamentally a math problem. There are 18 games and 13 opponents. A locked rival leaves only 16 games to spread over the other 12 teams (4 home and away, 4 just home, 4 just away). Generally you’d do a 3 year rotation of that so all 12 teams face you 4 times in 3 years plus your rival faces you 6 times.
The current B10 play is 5 home and away, 4 just home and 4 just away on a 3 yearish rotation (obviously they don’t rotate cleanly).
Comparison:
Locked: 1 x 2 game + 12 x 1.33 games per year = 1 x 78 games + 12 x 52 games in 39 years
Rotating: 13 x 1.38 games per year = 13 x 54 games in 39 years
So the question is if it’s worth everyone else playing you two fewer times every 39 years in order to lock a rival. I certainly think it’s a fair trade.
The bigger question is whether you only lock a few rivalries or if you lock 1 per team or some other number.
The usual suggested list:
IN/PU
MI/MSU
IL/NW
IA/NE
WI/MN
OSU/UMD
PSU/RU
You could just lock the top 2 or 3 or all 7. Or maybe you want the current hot rivalries like WI/MSU instead.
I think the move to 20 games, which seems to be coming since the ACC is already heading there, would be an ideal time to lock a rival since you’ll be gaining games anyway.
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Article in Virginia paper on UNC academic scandal
“UNC’s arrogance over academic scandal has tainted the school’s once-great image”
https://pilotonline.com/sports/columnist/harry-minium/unc-s-arrogance-over-academic-scandal-has-tainted-the-school/article_18fc6af4-f808-53e6-b107-ca46fb2a1e6a.html
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I think it’s true in terms of how older people view UNC, but I wonder what (if any) impact it’s had on young people. Have applications been impacted? Acceptance rate? Has the loss of AFAM cost them a set of students or did they basically change the name but keep the major (I forget)?
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/2017-cfn-five-year-program-analysis-apr-rankings
A look at the 5 year average APR scores for all I-A schools.
Top 10:
1. Northwestern – 993.2
2. Duke – 992
3. Wisconsin – 990.8
4. Boise State – 984.6
5. Stanford – 983.4
6. Clemson – 983
7. Georgia Tech – 982.8
T8. Air Force – 982.4
T8. Vanderbilt – 982.4
10. Boston College – 980.4
Rest of the B10:
12 Michigan 979.6
14 Nebraska 979
20 Rutgers 976.6
21 Minnesota 975.2
T23 Ohio State 974.6
T23 Indiana 974.6
T34 Illinois 971.2
T39 Michigan State 968.4
T41 Iowa 967.6
T53 Maryland 964.2
59 Purdue 963.4
62 Penn State 960
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/2017-cfn-five-year-program-analysis-attendance-rankings-no-1-130
5 year attendance averages.
Top 10:
1. Michigan 109,877.8
2. Ohio State 106,212.2
3. Alabama 101,538.8
4. Penn State 98,999.2
5. LSU 97,800.4
6. Tennessee 97,371
7. Texas A&M 96,960.2 (expanded a lot during this period)
8. Texas 96375.8
9. Georgia 92737.4
10 Nebraska 89,579.4
Rest of B10:
17 Wisconsin 79161.6
20 Michigan State 74343.8
22 Iowa 67581.8
45 Rutgers 47779.2
46 Minnesota 47693.6
53 Indiana 43630.6
54 Illinois 43577.2
56 Maryland 41647.6
59 Purdue 39953.8
60 Northwestern 36410.2
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Brian – like A&M, LSU expanded three seasons ago, going from 92k to 101k. Tiger Stadium now has slightly more capacity than Alabama. I would expect LSU to move up one or two spots going forward.
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Sorry, I just noticed the big jump in TMAU’s numbers from year to year so I noted it. I didn’t look at everyone carefully. I know several SEC schools have expanded recently.
Trends for the top 10:
1. Michigan – steady
2. Ohio State – up 2000 (new average will be around 107k, still #2)
3. Alabama – steady
4. Penn State – up 4000 (new average around 101k – sanctions recovery)
5. LSU – up 9000 (new average around 101.5k)
6. Tennessee – up 7000 (new average around 101k – winning again)
7. Texas A&M – up 16,000 (new average around 103k)
8. Texas – down 2000 (new average around 98k – will recover with winning)
9. Georgia – steady
10 Nebraska – steadyish
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http://awfulannouncing.com/espn/predicting-2017-weekly-locations-espns-college-gameday.html
Predicting where ESPN’s GameDay will be each week:
Week 1 – AL vs FSU (Atlanta)
Week 2 – OU @ OSU
Week 3 – UT @ USC
Week 4 – TCU @ OkSU
Week 5 – NW @ WI
Week 6 – LSU @ UF
Week 7 – OU vs UT (Dallas)
Week 8 – UL @ FSU
Week 9 – PSU @ OSU
Week 10 – LSU @ AL
Week 11 – FSU @ Clemson
Week 12 – UT @ WV
Week 13 – AL @ AU
Week 14 – B10 CCG (Indianapolis)
Week 15 – Army vs Navy (Philidelphia)
He gives multiple alternatives for most of the weeks and discusses why he chose that particular game.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2017/08/83945/gameday-to-ohio-state-indiana-per-report
It’s been confirmed that GameDay will be in Bloomington for OSU @ IN on Thursday night of Week 1. It won’t be the whole Saturday show, just a live set inside the stadium from 6-8pm (more like what they do for hops I think). I assume they’ll do the full show on Saturday from Atlanta.
Still, it’s the first time GameDay has come to IU so props to them.
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When I read this, I thought of the first few scenes of Breaking Away, where the young “cutters” are taking a peak at Lee Corso’s Hoosiers going through drills at Memorial Stadium.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches is out:
1. AL – 49 first place votes
2. OSU – 5
3. FSU – 4
4. USC – 0
5. Clemson – 7
6. PSU
7. UW
8. OU
9. MI
10. WI
Rest of B10:
35. NW
36. NE
51. MN
52. IA
56t. MSU, UMD
Top 25 by conference:
ACC – 3, 5, 17, 18, 22
B10 – 2, 6, 9, 10
B12 – 8, 11, 19, 20, 23
P12 – 4, 7, 14, 25
SEC – 1, 12, 13, 15, 16, 24
Other – 21
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/2017-preseason-coaches-poll-5-things-that-matter
Some poll analysis:
1. Alabama is No. 1 again … duh
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2008 was the last time the Crimson Tide started out the year outside of the top five
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However, it also means there isn’t a superstar team out there that’s another obvious choice.
No. 2 Ohio State has a slew of concerns, too, in reloading mode. Florida State might just be the best team, but it still has to prove it hold up against the more physical teams, and USC, Clemson and Penn State aren’t quite up to No. 1 status.
2. Big Ten Love
It didn’t exactly play like it in the bowl season, but the Big Ten came up with the best season of any conference last year – with the ACC a hair behind. In the preseason Coaches Poll, though, it’s getting all the love from the voters.
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3. The early showdowns
The one big positives out of the preseason polls is the hype. It might not mean much in a College Football Playoff era, but it sounds neat when there’s a showdown between a few highly-ranked teams.
And that’s exactly what we’re getting in Week One.
It’s one of the most exciting opening weekends ever, highlighted by preseason No. 1 Alabama dealing with No. 3 Florida State in Atlanta.
No. 9 Michigan and No. 16 Florida play in Arlington, and No. 20 West Virginia faces No. 22 Virginia Tech in Landover.
No. 2 Ohio State has to start out the Big Ten season right away on Thursday night at Indiana and No. 4 USC faces last year’s Group of Five star Western Michigan.
In Week Two. No. 2 Ohio State welcomes No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 5 Clemson hosts No. 13 Auburn, and the Pac-12 season kicks into high gear with No. 4 USC facing No. 14 Stanford.
In the third week, No. 5 Clemson and No. 17 Louisville battle, and No. 18 Miami has a chance to make a statement against No. 3 Florida State.
4. Who is, technically, underrated?
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There’s no glaring issue with the top 25 – Washington is a bit low at seven, though – but UCLA is going to be a whole lot better than it was last year with QB Josh Rosen back and healthy.
The Bruins received just one vote.
Oregon is also going to bounce back, but there wasn’t any love coming from the pollsters who put Willie Taggart’s team 34th in the Also Receiving Votes category.
Minnesota (just six votes) and Iowa (five) will flirt with top 25 status in a hurry. Georgia Tech (ten votes) will be dangerous, North Carolina (eight votes) won’t fall off the map, and North Carolina State (33rd overall with 39 votes) will be a massive problem for the rest of the ACC.
So if those teams are underrated …
5. Who is, technically, overrated?
USC isn’t the fourth-best team in college football, but everyone saw the Rose Bowl, everyone knows Sam Darnold, and everyone likes the brand name. In an improved Pac-12 – especially in a South that was hammered by injuries last season – the Trojans will be good, but they’re not quite as strong as advertised.
Penn State is loaded with experience and talent on both sides of the ball, but 2016 was a magical season that won’t be repeated. No. 6 isn’t that bad or off, but it’s probably around five spots too high.
Colorado is way overrated at 27th overall, especially considering Oregon and UCLA are so far behind the defending Pac-12 South champs. The Buff offense should be fine, but the defense loses a slew of the key parts. Worst of all, again, like USC’s issue, the rest of the division will be better. Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA won’t be as banged up again.
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Some mixed analysis from USA Today.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/08/03/five-teams-snubbed-preseason-amway-coaches-poll/534151001/
5 teams snubbed in the poll: ND, CO, Boise, NCSU, NE
Nebraska
Even after a 9-4 season, it makes sense the Cornhuskers would be overlooked with just 10 starters back. The reason for optimism in Lincoln starts at quarterback with Tulane transfer Tanner Lee set to take over the starting job. His arrival should greatly improve the team’s passing game that was an albatross despite their nine wins. WR Stanley Morgan Jr. should benefit from more opportunities in the passing game. The Nebraska defense has shown steady improvement since Mike Riley arrived in 2015. Like Notre Dame a new coordinator should raise their performance. Bob Diaco will rely on his secondary which features Joshua Kalu and Kieron Williams as two of its standouts.
and then
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2017/08/03/big-ten-replaces-sec-as-most-overrated/533770001/
The B10 replaces the SEC as the most overrated conference. Even with only 4 teams in the top 25.
The biggest shift in college football happened almost overnight, with so little warning it’s practically gone unnoticed. But as of today, with the release of the preseason Amway Coaches Poll for 2017, the SEC is no longer the sport’s most overrated conference.
That honor now belongs to the Big Ten.
While the SEC boasts the nation’s No. 1 team in Alabama, the coaches have put four Big Ten teams in the top 10 to start the season.
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But what has the Big Ten done to deserve four spots in the preseason top-10 besides giving Ohio State a free pass for underachieving the last two years, riding the Jim Harbaugh hype train and going overboard on a Penn State team that suddenly will have to deal with big expectations for the first time in a decade?
Though there’s no doubt the college football landscape has flattened out — the first three College Football Playoff champions have come from three different leagues — the disrespect for the SEC has gone overboard.
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But that doesn’t excuse the fact voters have now shifted to give the benefit of the doubt to a league — and, more specifically, a group of teams — that has done little to deserve it.
Disrespect for the SEC? They had one team that won more than 8 games last year in the regular season. How many 8-4 teams usually move into the top 10 in the preseason poll? They have #12, 13, 15, 16 and 24. How is that disrespectful? They’d have multiple top 10 teams if people could agree on which SEC teams will be good this year instead of spreading their votes over 4-5 teams.
Ohio State at No. 2? Sure, that’s fine based on Urban Meyer’s reputation, the talent he brings in annually and his 61-6 overall record since coming back to coaching.
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What about Penn State at No. 6? There’s no doubt James Franklin’s team has some exciting offensive talent led by running back Saquon Barkley, but the Nittany Lions’ reputation was made off a loss in the Rose Bowl to USC. Before that thrilling 52-49 game, Penn State was viewed as a bit of a fluky Big Ten champion and didn’t get serious consideration for a playoff spot. Though this team should be a lot of fun to watch, let’s see how they handle an entire summer of hype.
Still, putting Penn State at No. 6 is far more defensible than Michigan at No. 9 — one spot above where it finished last season. The Wolverines won’t sink very far, but this is a really young squad that returns only six starters and will have to replace eight all-conference players on defense.
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Then there’s Wisconsin at No. 10. Good old, reliable Wisconsin. There certainly is a scenario this year where the Badgers get to 9-1 or 10-0 in November and put themselves right in the thick of the playoff conversation.
He doesn’t seem to have a big problem with any of the teams, but as a group they’re way overrated somehow. PSU just missed the CFP last year and returns almost everyone, so #6 seems reasonable. I agree MI seems high at #9 but even he doesn’t think they’ll drop much. I’d point out that last year #9 was a 3-loss team and that’s what most project for MI this year (or better). I’ll also point out that the lowest 9-1 team last year was #6 at that time.
Still, something feels off about anointing the Big Ten as the best league in college football.
Maybe it comes down to how we judge them against one another. Is it the quality at the very top? Is it 1 through 14? Is it somewhere in the middle?
Though we can debate whether they’re too high in the poll, the Big Ten has four good teams. The middle of the league leaves something to be desired, and the bottom is downright bad. If the top four win the games they’re supposed to win, the perception in early December will be that the league has surpassed the SEC and ACC.
But if the last couple Januarys are any indication, it won’t hold true when it matters most.
Who’s calling the B10 the best conference? The media. So why blame the coaches poll for something it isn’t claiming?
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/friday-five-most-overrated-college-football-teams-in-the-2017-preseason-coaches-poll/
5 most overrated teams:
1. #23 UT
2. #13 AU
3. #9 MI
4. #19 KSU
5. #4 USC
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/01/ap-college-football-rankings-greatest-programs-of-all-time
CFN determined the top all-time program rankings based on the AP poll. Their formula is different from the AP’s official one, and thus so are there rankings. CFN uses just the final AP poll and gives points for where you finish (1st = 25, 2nd = 24, …).
1. Oklahoma – 1137
2. Alabama – 1013
3. Ohio State – 1008
4. Michigan – 973
5. Notre Dame – 939
6. USC – 818
7. Nebraska – 783
8. Texas – 772
9. Tennessee – 686
10. Penn State – 667
11. LSU – 625
12. Florida State – 563
There are some clear tiers among the top teams (1-5, 6-8, 9-11).
B10:
18. Michigan State
24. Wisconsin
26. Iowa
35. Maryland
36. Minnesota
43. Purdue
T47. Illinois
54. Northwestern
76. Indiana
85. Rutgers
Worst P5s (the rest are in the top 64):
69. Arizona
75. Virginia
76. Indiana
85. Rutgers
98. Wake Forest
T102. Vanderbilt
T119. Iowa State
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/usa-today-coaches-poll-college-football-rankings-greatest-programs-all-time
CFN did the same for the Coaches poll.
1. Oklahoma – 927
2. Ohio State – 916
3. Alabama – 895
4. Michigan – 764
5. Nebraska – 736
6. USC – 715
7. Texas – 691
8. Penn State – 671 (top team to have more points in the Coaches than the AP)
9. Notre Dame – 654
10. Florida State – 617
11. Tennessee – 551
12 Miami – 504
There are some clear tiers among the top teams (1-3, 4-10, 11-17).
B10:
19. Michigan State
20. Wisconsin
21. Iowa
36. Maryland
37. Purdue
43. Illinois
48. Minnesota
65. Northwestern
71. Indiana
T79. Rutgers
Worst P5s (the rest are in the top 60):
61. Arizona
64. MsSU
65. Northwestern
66. Kentucky
67. Virginia
71. Indiana
T79. Rutgers
T82. Iowa State
T96. Wake Forest
T96. Vanderbilt
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/2017-cfn-five-year-program-analysis-fbs-quality-wins-rankings-no-1-130
Ranking of teams by 5 year totals of quality wins, defined as a win over a I-A team that finished with a winning record.
1. AL – 44
2. Clemson, OSU – 34
4. FSU – 32
5. Stanford – 30
6. OU – 26
7. OR – 24
8. LSU, MSU, ND – 23
Big Ten:
1. Ohio State 34
2. Michigan State 23
3. Wisconsin 18 (tied for #22 nationally)
4. Nebraska 17 (tied for #25 nationally)
T5. Penn State 14 (tied for #39 nationally)
T5. Northwestern 14 (tied for #39 nationally)
7. Michigan 13 (tied for #45 nationally)
8. Minnesota 12 (#50)
9. Iowa 11 (tied for #51 nationally)
10. Illinois 6 (tied for #83 nationally)
11. Rutgers 5 (tied for #92 nationally)
T12. Indiana 4 (tied for #100 nationally)
T12. Maryland 4 (tied for #100 nationally)
T14. Purdue 1 (tied for #120 nationally)
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/2017-cfn-five-year-program-analysis-fbs-elite-wins-rankings-no-1-130
Ranking of 5 year totals of elite wins.
n the CFN Five-Year Program Analysis, an Elite Win is a victory over an FBS team that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road or in a bowl game against a team that lost three games. An extra 0.5 is added on to the Elite Win score when a team comes up with a road victory over a team that finished with two losses or fewer.
1. Clemson – 10
2. AL – 9.5
3. FSU, OSU – 9
5. MSU – 8
6. OU, OR, SC – 6.5 (yes SC, not USC)
9. Baylor, Stanford – 6
B10:
1. Ohio State 9
2. Michigan State 8
3. Iowa 3 (tied for #19 nationally)
4. Wisconsin 2.5 (tied for #24 nationally)
T5. Indiana 2 (tied for #31 nationally)
T5. Nebraska 2
T5. Penn State 2
T8. Northwestern 1 (tied for #46 nationally)
T8. Rutgers 1
T10. Illinois 0 (tied for #67 nationally)
T10. Maryland 0
T10. Michigan 0
T10. Minnesota 0
T10. Purdue 0
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To B1G fans in the Washington area: The Nationals are holding a Big Ten night at Nationals Park for their 7:05 p.m. game against Miami Aug. 10 (Thursday). It comes twp days after a Virginia Tech night at the ballpark (the Nats previously held days for UMd and UVa). You can find out more (and order tickets) by visiting http://m.mlb.com/nationals/tickets/info/special-ticket-big-ten?partnerId=ed-11778381-1009328763.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/candid-coaches-revealing-how-many-teams-cheat-commit-major-violations/
CBS interviewed 20% of all I-A head coaches for honest opinions on big picture questions. They granted the coaches anonymity.
This piece is about how many schools coaches feel knowingly cheat in recruiting. A lot of it is Dennis Dodd just spouting his opinion with no facts to support him but the survey results and the quotes are informative. It’s not just fans, the coaches think the SEC is dirty too.
How many college football programs do you believe knowingly break NCAA rules beyond minor secondary violations?
0-10 percent (0-13 teams) – 57 percent
11-20 percent (14-26 teams) – 17 percent
21-30 percent (27-39 teams) – 22 percent
30 percent or more (40-130 teams) – 4 percent
Explain yourselves
“Players are smart. When the game is over, they walk through the parking lot. When the tailgate is over, they may have $400-$500 before they get out of there. Players are smart. They may have scored a big touchdown or won a big game. There ain’t no question they’re getting something on the way. [A booster] is going to go downtown and say, ‘I just gave so and so $50 for dinner.’ … I guarantee [that sort of thing] is going to happen at Ole Miss and Alabama and Mississippi State and Tennessee and Texas probably and Oklahoma — for sure.”
“I think it’s way, way, way, way less than people think. There is that deal in the SEC and the ACC where they’re funneling money through … churches. [But] as soon as you pay some kids, they’re in charge of something. Think of some 18-year-old in charge of something. Call me too arrogant to pay some kid. I’m not paying some kid. Think of some kid saying, ‘I’m not getting the ball enough.’ Let me tell you something, pal …”
“Less than 10 percent [of schools cheat]. In today’s world, I want to believe it’s a minimum number. I always tell our coaches, ‘Sometimes today’s friend can be your worst enemy.’ I’m not going to put my job in jeopardy to let you meet with a kid an hour longer than we’re supposed to. All of the sudden he wants to transfer and he says, ‘They did this.’ Because of that, there are more teams closer to the book.”
“Out of the 130 FBS schools in FBS, I would say, in the SEC, 80 percent [knowingly cheat]. Everywhere else, about 20 percent.”
“[A coach will say to a student], ‘I’ll pay your law school if you spend your first five years working in the [NCAA] infractions department.’ I know it happens. I know the guy. He’s a good guy, but it’s 30 years ago, 25 years ago. You want to know everything that goes on. Bear Bryant used to say, ‘I want to know everything that goes on.'”
…
In college football, any coach worth his whistle has insulated himself from the knowledge of impropriety. The unspoken directive is, “Just get it done.” There’s a reason just under half of all coaches surveyed believe there is rampant cheating going on, with one going so far as to say 80 percent of the SEC cheats. Another indicated at least 50 percent of all teams nationally cheat.
The figure I keep hearing from a certain conference is $80,000 to land a top player.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/2017-cfn-five-year-program-analysis-rankings
5 years program analysis rankings. CFN looks at wins, special wins, attendance, draft picks and APR scores and uses a formula to give points.
Top 10:
1. AL – 151.58
2. OSU – 138.82
3. Clemson – 130.41
4. FSU – 126.02
5. Stanford – 112.56
6. OU – 112.49
7. LSU – 104.88
8. ND – 98.19
9. MSU – 96.75
10. UF – 96.68
Rest of B10:
16. WI
18. MI
22. PSU
23. NE
46. IA
52. MN
54. NW
81. UMD
82. IN
84. RU
95. IL
110. PU
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http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-disney-earnings-20170808-story.html
“It’s been clear to us for a while [that] the future of this industry will be forged by direct relationships between content creators and consumers,” Iger said.
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Walt Disney Co. will launch two Netflix-like streaming services — one for sports and another for films and television shows — in one of the boldest moves by an entertainment company to address the changing media landscape.
The stand-alone subscription services would appeal to younger audiences who are turning away from traditional media and flocking to Netflix and other digital platforms. The ESPN service, which would be available next year, is expected to feature 10,000 sporting events annually, among them Major League Baseball games.
The Disney-branded film and TV offering, set to debut in 2019, would include original content developed by Walt Disney Studios.
…
The company said Tuesday that it would end its distribution agreement with Netflix for new films, beginning with the 2019 calendar year theatrical slate. Instead, viewers would have to go to the Disney service to stream those movies. Shows currently produced by Disney’s Marvel Studios such as “Jessica Jones” would still be available on Netflix.
…
As part of its effort to create the new services, Disney is paying $1.58 billion for a greater stake in Bamtech, a streaming video company that is developing both products. Disney previously disclosed it was working on the ESPN service when it acquired a 33% interest in the company, which was created by Major League Baseball, in August 2016. Disney will now own 75% of Bamtech.
…
Disney’s third-quarter earnings report underscored the reasoning for the tactical realignment. For the quarter that ended July 1, Disney reported a profit of $2.37 billion, down 9% from a year earlier. It delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.58 and revenue of $14.2 billion, which was essentially flat compared with a year earlier. Analysts had predicted earnings per share of $1.55 on revenue of $14.5 billion, according to Factset.
Disney’s media networks unit, which houses ESPN and ABC, had a tough quarter, reporting segment operating income of $1.84 billion, which was down 22% from a year earlier. The unit’s operating income declined on a year-over-year basis for the fifth quarter in a row. Within the cable networks group, which includes ESPN, segment operating income was down 23% to $1.46 billion. Disney attributed the drop-off, in part, to higher programming costs because of a new NBA TV contract, and lower advertising revenue at ESPN.
Poor Disney’s profit is down to “only” $2.37B per quarter. How will they ever survive?
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/candid-coaches-the-most-overrated-and-underrated-coaches-in-college-football/
This time CBS asked coaches about which other coaches are overrated or underrated.
Most overrated coach Responses
Jim Harbaugh (Michigan) – 13 percent
Nick Saban (Alabama) – 9 percent
Lane Kiffin (Florida Atlantic) – 9 percent
Lovie Smith (Illinois) – 9 percent
Brian Kelly (Notre Dame) – 4 percent
Tom Herman (Texas) – 4 percent
Will Muschamp (South Carolina) – 4 percent
Choose not to answer – 48 percent
Most underrated coach Responses
Bill Snyder (Kansas State) – 24 percent
Chris Petersen (Washington) – 15 percent
David Cutcliffe (Duke) – 10 percent
Ken Niumatalolo (Navy) – 10 percent
10 other coaches – 41 percent
Explain yourselves
Overrated — Nick Saban at Alabama: “Nick’s got a lot of advantages. In [my conference], you could take five or six of us and get there a month before the season and win 12 games. There is a little f—ing machine underneath that stadium, and they grow them there.”
Overrated — Nick Saban at Alabama: “We’re going to have a war. You’re going to have a howitzer, and I have a musket, and then every time we’ll say that you’re brilliant.”
Underrated — Chris Petersen at Washington: “He’s not at Alabama, USC, Ohio State or Texas, but everywhere he goes, he makes an immediate impact. He does stand out to me wherever he’s gone. The longer you coach, some of the best coaches we ever coach against people don’t write about. Who’s to say these guys aren’t the very best?”
Overrated — Will Muschamp at South Carolina: “He’s been at a couple of Cadillacs, and he’s wrecked ’em. He keeps landing on his feet. … When you talk about the great ones, [Steve] Spurrier set the standard. I guess it’s because he gets away with a lot, too: On the sidelines, he does some crazy things. It’s like Charlie Weis, when he was at Notre Dame, he had to be the worst college head coach ever to keep getting on his feet. To me, when you’re given the keys to a Cadillac, you need to respond. Most coaches that become notable coaches, in their second or third year they won a national championship or at least came close.”
Underrated — David Beaty at Kansas: “What he has taken on over there [is impressive] because that thing was blown up. The culture he is instilling, the fact he can be so upbeat, it’s gotta be the hardest job in the country right now.”
I again disagree with many of the writer’s comments. He basically dismisses all the votes for the top 3 overrated coaches as sour grapes or jealousy. While I’m sure that’s part of it, it doesn’t explain why people like Dabo Swinney, Jimbo Fisher and Urban Meyer aren’t near the top of that list.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/08/10/preseason-top-25-teams-rival-scouting-reports
Rival coaches give anonymous tidbits about the preseason top 25 teams. It’s an interesting read if your team is on the list or plays some of them.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ncaa-board-of-governors-adopts-sexual-violence-policy-for-all-universities/
The NCAA is trying to reduce sexual violence on campuses.
According to the new policy adopted Tuesday, the leaders of each school — president, athletic director and Title IX coordinator — must attest that their student-athletics, coaches and administrators have been educated on sexual violence prevention and how to achieve positive culture change on campus.
Leaders of each institution will be asked to affirm that its athletic department’s members participate in and are compliant in sexual violence policies on an annual basis, and that Title IX polices and contact information for leaders is readily available to students, administrators and coaches on campus. The new policy is geared toward examining issues associated with sexual violence, enhance prevention efforts and makes campuses safer around the country.
Schools that don’t attest to the requests will be known to the public. All schools in compliance with the policy will be included in the NCAA’s annual report to the Board of Governors.
I wonder if they’ll ever update their punishment system to allow for penalties for broader abuses like this or academic issues.
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https://www.avca.org/polls/di-women/8-9-2017.html
Big Ten with eight in the Top 25 and four in the Top 7.
AVCA Division I Volleyball Poll – Preseason (8/9)
1. Texas (25)
2. Stanford (35)
3. Washington (2)
4. Minnesota (2)
5. Nebraska
6. Penn State
7. Wisconsin
8. Kansas
9. Creighton
10. BYU
11. North Carolina
12. Florida
13. UCLA
14. Kentucky
15. Florida State
16. Michigan
17. Michigan State
18. Oregon
19. Missouri
20. Hawaii
21. Ohio State
22. San Diego
23. Utah
24. Arizona
25. Purdue
Others Receiving Votes
USC, Western Kentucky, Dayton, Washington State, Iowa State, Colorado State, Pittsburgh, Baylor, Kansas State, Boise State, Wichita State, Texas A&M, Southern Methodist
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Please stop using fbs terms p5/g5 when referencing power/mid-major conferences. Those are terms that should be strictly used for football conferences. They make no sense when talking about the dozens of basketball (non-football too) conferences.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2017/08/84176/which-programs-has-ohio-state-never-faced
Apparently there are 43 I-A programs OSU has never played. Most I couldn’t care less about ever facing, but there are a few surprises on the list.
ACC – GT, WF
B12 – ISU, KU
SEC – MsSU, Ole Miss
MAC – Ball St, CMU
AAC – 6*
MWC – 6* (includes Boise St)
SB – 10
CUSA – 11*
* OSU has 2 of the 43 on the 2017 schedule (UNLV, Army) plus Tulane in 2018 and FAU in 2019.
I’m a little surprised we still have 6 P5 schools to play, but it’s not like those teams were likely bowl opponents. I’m also surprised we never got those 2 MAC schools in all the recent cupcake scheduling.
What surprising schools has your team failed to play yet?
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Nebraska:
ACC: BC, UL, UVA
SEC: Vandy, UK
AAC: 6/10 not played
MAC: 8/12 not played
MWC: Boise, SDSU
SBC: 4/10 not played
CUSA: 4/12 not played
(http://www.winsipedia.com/nebraska/ I may have missed one or two)
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20333740/the-florida-gators-suspended-seven-players-september-2-opener-vs-michigan-wolverines
This shows you the philosophical difference between the SEC East and the SEC West. UF is suspending 7 players, including their top playmaker, for their opener versus MI for basically theft. Meanwhile a DUI won’t keep an AL star DL from playing versus FSU and Ole Miss continues to defend a coach who flagrantly broke a bunch of NCAA rules. You saw the same sort of differences with oversigning before the NCAA rules changed to limit what people could do.
At some point I wonder if conferences will start supervising punishments across the board to level the playing field.
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An example (among a number) of why I don’t see OU going sec, and certainly not UT.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/08/13/notre-dame-vs-wisconsin-lambeau-field-2020-soldier-field-2021
WI and ND have agreed on a series.
Notre Dame and Wisconsin announced a two-game series at Lambeau Field and Soldier Field for 2020 and 2021.
Lambeau Field will host on October 3, 2020 and Soldier Field will host on September 25, 2021.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/candid-coaches-stances-vary-slightly-on-punishing-violence-against-women/
Today’s episode of Candid Coaches from CBS is about sexual assault/domestic violence.
If a player is accused of and appears to have committed sexual assault or violence against a woman, how would you handle it?
Zero tolerance / immediate dismissal – 65 percent
Wait for investigation / immediate suspension – 35 percent
Explain yourselves
“I do not think a coach should ever put himself in a position to decide who is right [after an accusation].”
“How does Baylor avoid almost everybody in the administration in the loop [being punished]? They just put in prison the president and athletic director [at Penn State]. … [Baylor’s] as toxic of a thing I’ve heard in any college athletics.”
“They are suspended immediately. At [our school], that immediately goes to Title IX. I do not think a coach should ever put himself in a position to decide who is right.”
“To me, we need to suspend until [authorities determine what happened]. Furthermore, as a coach, I’m learning more every day. I’m quickly going to turn it over to the highest authority as fast as I can.”
“It wouldn’t be just against women. I don’t have too many hard and fast consequences. Accused is different [than convicted]. No, they would not immediately been dismissed from the team for an accusation.”
“For us, it always starts with we’ve got to protect our players. Immediately, I’ve got to suspend you. You don’t want to be guilty until proven innocent. I don’t want guys to be in a situation where we don’t protect them either.”
“I know what we would do: We would immediately suspend him. I tell our guys all the time, ‘We’re not going to turn our back on you. You’re still ours no matter what.’ They know anything sexual of any nature, anything domestic of any nature you’re going to be in a position where it’s going to be hard for me to help you.”
“I cut him. They know that Day 1. It kind of depends, if they’re false accusations. If somebody is at a party and he gets shoved, and he runs into a woman and she gets injured. But anybody who deliberately hits a woman [is gone].”
“Team rules haven’t changed. We had a lot more education. We go through the whole judicial process. Turn it over to school, turn it over to police. We can’t be the judge, the jury and everybody else.”
“They’d be immediately dismissed. That is a character flaw. That’s a problem sweeping the United States right now. When I was raised in my age, my dad said, ‘You better not hit a woman.'”
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/college-footballs-sleeping-giant-waking-north-carolina-virginia-maryland.html
What is keeping the “sleeping giants” of CFB from waking up?
The term “sleeping giant” gets tossed around college football quite a bit, and with good reason. While the sport is now 130 teams deep, just 15 to 20 have a chance to win a national title each year, which leaves quite a few programs out in the cold when it comes time to discuss serious contenders.
…
The sleeping giants — those most likely to create upheaval within the sport’s status quo — need to have the resources to pay coaches and build facilities, already possess fan support, and have access to local recruiting.
If we’re making a short list of today’s potential sleeping giants, it probably looks like this:
* Illinois
* Maryland
* North Carolina
* NC State
* Rutgers
* Virginia
Schools like Georgia Tech, Louisville and Virginia Tech could be added here too, theoretically. But they don’t necessarily fit the same mold as the names above. Louisville has basically turned into a pro team in a growing city. Georgia Tech has seen plenty of success in the past, and is located within one of the country’s largest metro areas. The Hokies have seen 30 years of near-uninterrupted success now.
But the other six programs listed above all have similar characteristics with one another: Power conference state schools with growing (and talented) recruiting footprints, relatively recent coaching hires and a lack of historic success in the sport.
…
But what’s held each of these six schools back? It’s different for each.
He writes a paragraph about each of the 6, but here’s the gist:
Illinois – proximity to a pro town
Maryland – basketball school with money issues
Rutgers – proximity to the pro sports town and money issues
Is his list correct? Do others belong on the list?
It’s interesting that they’re all mid-Atlantic schools except UIUC (also all ACC or B10). I think the B12 and SEC schools either are successful already or incapable of becoming giants. I think he might be missing out on some P12 schools, though. Cal certainly has a high ceiling. So should ASU and/or UA although perhaps their recruiting grounds aren’t good enough to qualify for his list.
Do we expect any of these 6 to wake up soon? UMD, RU and NCSU are hurt by their divisions (OSU, MI, PSU in one; Clemson, FSU and UL in the other). UVA has VT in state making things harder. UNC’s been doing the best of the bunch but they may have some NCAA sanctions to face (or not). IL really seems to just need a decade or so of solid coaching (Smith will leave by then, so I’m including his replacement). The West isn’t so top heavy and a few wins could really boost recruiting and attendance. Having 3 kings in the neighborhood plus a few princes all chasing the top IL talent hurts, but there will be some that want to stay home if they can just win some games.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20342799/baylor-bears-avoided-random-drug-testing-according-book
Things were so bad at Baylor, the team wasn’t even doing random drug testing.
The culture surrounding Baylor University and its football program not only affected how coaches and administrators handled allegations of sexual assault against players but also kept the university from randomly drug testing its student-athletes for marijuana and other recreational drugs — making it one of the few major collegiate programs not to do so, according to an upcoming book about the university’s sexual assault scandal.
Baylor regents had no idea that the university wasn’t randomly drug testing its student-athletes until the Philadelphia law firm the school hired to examine how it handled allegations of sexual assault by students, including football players, turned up the issue. Already reeling from bad publicity around the mishandling of sexual assault cases, the lack of drug testing was another indicator of just how insular the football program had been under former coach Art Briles.
…
According to Baylor regents and other administrators, its athletics department avoided random drug testing because of the university’s overall strict policy against marijuana use, in which one reported incident might lead to suspension for a semester and a second incident could result in expulsion. Since the university’s strict conduct code might derail a student-athlete’s career, athletics department officials didn’t think it was fair to subject them to random testing.
…
The NCAA doesn’t require its member institutions to drug test its student-athletes. But if a school has a written drug policy it is required to follow it under NCAA rules. The NCAA tests for street drugs and performance-enhancing substances at its championship events and does random testing at least once a year at its member institutions. A 2011 study by the Associated Press found that 99 percent of the 56 FBS programs it surveyed tested its football players for marijuana and cocaine.
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https://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/08/15/espn-megacast-broadcast-college-football-season-opener-ohio-state-indiana
ESPN is going all out for the OSU/IN game to open the season. They will be doing a skinny megacast, a toned-down version of how they cover the NCG.
ESPN’s now-annual Megacast broadcast for college football’s title game has featured the company at its production best. Last year viewers had access to 14 alternative broadcasts for Clemson’s thrilling 35–31 win over Alabama, including presentations on ESPN2, SEC Network, ESPNU, ESPNews, ESPN Classic, ESPN Goal Line and variations on ESPN3.
Given the critical and in-house praise for the Megacast—and with an eye toward getting momentum for the start of the college football season—ESPN executives have decided to implement a skinny Megacast for its opening broadcast of the college football season, Ohio State at Indiana on August 31 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Along with the main broadcast airing on ESPN, there will be six alternative presentations: a Coaches Film Room on ESPNews featuring former coaches Mack Brown, Mark Helfrich, and Gene Chizik, hosts Greg McElroy and Tom Luginbill and the ESPN debut of former LSU Coach Les Miles.
There will also be a homers’ broadcast on ESPNU (Dan Dakich will be the analyst for Indiana with play by play broadcaster Joe Tessitore); the debut of an All-22 broadcast (viewers can see the entire field from above the end zone) on ESPN3; a Skycam perspective on ESPN3, a DataCenter presentation on ESPN3, which features on-screen graphic content ranging from analytics, real-time drive charts, win probability updates, and curated social media reaction. ESPN will also employ Command Center on ESPN Goal Line, which is a split-screen with simultaneous multiple camera views.
…
In addition to the MegaCast presentation, the network will begin its pregame coverage from Indiana starting at 4:00 p.m on ESPN. An episode of College GameDay starts at 6:00 p.m. ET., the first time the traveling road show has been in Bloomington. In addition, there will also be a Field Pass presentation on ESPNU at 7 p.m., which serves as an alternate pregame show. The on-air talent for Field Pass (Tessitore, Joey Galloway, Adnan Virk and Jesse Palmer) will be inside the stadium and at field level.
Some viewers might wonder (as I did) why ESPN would not opt for Megacast coverage for Alabama-Florida State on Saturday Sept. 2. But ESPN’s Ed Placey, also a senior coordinating producer, said a Saturday regular season game poses specific challenges.
“Putting a MegaCast presentation on requires a lot of resources, including, production equipment, commentators and staffers,” Placey said. “Also, ideally we prefer to have multiple linear networks available outside of the traditional telecast. Taking that all into account, it would be difficult to pull off the MegaCast production on a regular season Saturday that has a full slate of games across our networks throughout the day.”
The traditional broadcast of the Ohio State-Indiana game on ESPN will be called by Dave Flemming (Chris Fowler has U.S. Open tennis duties), with analyst Kirk Herbstreit and Laura Rutledge on the sidelines.
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Jon Wilner is about to start a series of articles about the P12N as it turns 5 years old today.
Five years ago today, the Pac-12 launched a TV network that was groundbreaking in scope:
Structured for cable, digital and satellite delivery, it had seven feeds (one national and six regional) designed to super-serve fans … to fill the gaps in football and men’s basketball exposure … to generate unprecedented attention for Olympic sports athletes … to help spread the conference brand worldwide … and to make a few bucks.
As they currently stand, the Pac-12 Networks are a point of pride for many within the conference and a source of frustration for legions of fans.
They are fabulous and awful, remarkably innovative and grossly mismanaged — a raging success and abject failure. They are all of that, and none of it.
…
The series will unfold over the next two weeks and (ideally) address all the issues in a balanced fashion.
We’ll look at what has gone right and wrong, hear from media analysts and university presidents, take a deep dive into what went wrong with DirecTV and peer into the future of the networks.
Fans will have a chance to weigh in, as well, via a reader poll (or just email me directly: pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com).
I spoke to key officials on the record and went deep (deep!) into the Hotline’s bag o’ sources to get the full story on money, distribution and the business model.
I’ll link in any of the series that seem relevant here.
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Perhaps a possible move to address DTV and distribution issues.
http://pac-12.com/article/2017/08/14/pac-12-networks-names-mark-shuken-new-president
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20354984/college-football-playoff-selection-committee-members-assigned-monitor-two-conferences-each
The CFP announced the point people for each conference.
This year’s conference point person assignments are as follows:
American: Chris Howard and Tyrone Willingham
ACC: Willingham and Steve Wieberg
Big Ten: Rob Mullens and Tom Jernstedt
Big 12: Dan Radakovich and Frank Beamer
C-USA: Herb Deromedi and Howard
MAC: Jeff Bower and Beamer
Mountain West: Wieberg and Mullens
Pac-12: Jeff Long and Jeff Bower
SEC: Johnson and Deromedi
Sun Belt: Jernstedt and Gene Smith
Independents: Smith and Johnson
Committee chair Kirby Hocutt hasn’t been assigned any conferences so that he can focus on his responsibilities as chairman.
“As during the first three years, the point persons’ role is to ensure that the committee has comprehensive information about each team,” said Hancock. “They aren’t advocates for any team or conference. They are objective, thorough fact-finders and nothing more. They make certain that no detail escapes the committee’s attention.”
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/candid-coaches-getting-real-onmarijuana-legalization-testing-in-college-football/
Coaches on pot use.
Should marijuana be legalized nationwide?
No – 52%
Yes – 35%
No opinion – 13%
Should college athletes still be tested and suspended for marijuana use?
Yes – 74%
No – 18%
No opinion – 8%
Explain yourselves
“No, [it should not be legalized]. I think it’s a gateway drug, and I’ve got kids. Right now, in [my team’s state], marijuana and opiates are a bad, bad killer.”
“I’m to the point where — if you get a caught smoking marijuana and it’s illegal — we’re going to punish you. [However], it doesn’t recognize the standards in our society today. We’ve got several states where it’s legal. I have a ton of players. I came back from spring break. They decided to have their offseason drug test. Thirty of my players [tested positive]. They just went home for spring break. What do you think they’re going to do? Look at what we did: We drank a lot of beer, and we weren’t even of age. They’re going to smoke a little bit. The sad thing is they’re going to go home and their parents are going to be smoking. Let’s not kill ourselves on something that’s no longer in effect. I hate to test them after summer because these kids’ parents grew up smoking pot. It’s very socially accepted.”
“I think it should be legal. Why? It’s legal all over our country. It’s legal for people who are sick. What we should do is make it legal, but there’s got to be a certain [threshold]. Everything that leads to bad decisions goes back to what? After midnight — with alcohol. I think we have it all reversed. I’m more [against] alcohol than I am marijuana. We drug test all these kids, so why don’t we breathalyze them? Nobody says, ‘You’re dying, grab some whiskey.’ You’ll die faster.”
“Absolutely [they should be tested]. A lot of times these things are established before you ever meet these kids. When a kid has never done it before college, usually I can correct it if it’s a learned behavior. But when he’s out 12 years old smoking with Uncle John and Cousin Rudy, it’s deep rooted. If I let you do this, I’m setting you up for failure. Right now, the two organizations that say you can’t [smoke] are the NFL and NCAA. You’re involved in one and want to be in the next one. … I really believe marijuana is a gateway drug.”
“I’ve really come to the conclusion [that] what is socially acceptable is so different than the rules in our game. It doesn’t fit. My daughter in [one state] has told me there are more marijuana stores than McDonald’s.”
“I think it’s going to be legalized soon. I have come full circle as a man on that. We lose a lot of money. We’re helping the cartels grow [by not legalizing].”
“Our jails are full of people [who have been arrested for marijuana]. There are people losing their lives, dying every day. I know there are a lot worse things out there including things that are legal, including drinking, that are at the same level if not higher. We have to stop testing for it because it is legalized in states of competing universities. That’s not fair for those teams to have to be able to manage those kids when it’s legal in those states. I also believe that if it’s legalized it doesn’t become as cool anymore and the numbers go down.”
“A guy’s mind doesn’t stop forming until he’s 26. If he’s smoking a lot, it can change. We have to figure out what it [does] to our minds.”
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Click to access 1718conferenceschedule.pdf
The B10 released the MBB schedule for 2017-18. Remember, the B10 tournament is a week early this year (2/28-3/4) in order to hold it at MSG.
In a quick look I noticed that OSU has 3 road games in 7 days in mid-January. That’s unusual for a B10 schedule and I’m not a huge fan of it.
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Jon Wilner did a podcast with Adam Rittenberg as his guest and spent a significant amount of time discussing realignment in general and with the P12 more specifically. The starting point was Rittenberg’s article (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/19743196/why-2023-next-big-date-conference-shuffling) over the summer on realignment.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/ranking-2017-college-football-nonconference-strength-of-schedule/
A look at OOC schedules by P5 conference.
SEC
No conference takes it easier in nonconference play year after year than the SEC. Last year, the Big Ten outdid the SEC when it came to scheduling the most home games, but the SEC never stays down for long and has reclaimed that crown. The SEC is playing a full 75 percent of its nonconference games at home.
The league is also playing the smallest percentage of true road games (just nine out of 56 games) and the greatest percentage of games against FCS competition. The SEC just missed playing the smallest percentage of games against other Power Five teams.
Another annual characteristic of SEC nonconference schedules is that, when teams do play away from home, even in neutral-site games, they rarely leave the South. Only three SEC teams will play games out of its home region: Georgia at Notre Dame, Texas A&M at UCLA and Ole Miss at Cal. The Bulldogs are the only SEC team playing two games away from home, which is also very unusual.
…
Big Ten
The Big Ten is right on the SEC’s heels in terms of playing a lot of home nonconference games with 31-of-42 games on home fields (73.8 percent). However, due to a new scheduling rule forbidding games against FCS teams, there are only two such games this season. Those were grandfathered in when the rule was created. Every other league is playing between 22-25 percent of its nonconference games against FCS opponents.
…
ACC
With four of the five ACC-SEC, in-state rivalry games switching to SEC sites this year, nonconference schedules in the ACC will be road heavier than usual. The league will play the smallest percentage of home games at 62.5 percent. It will also play almost 40 percent of its nonconference games against other Power Five teams, a number that is boosted by the annual slate of five games against Notre Dame, which is counted as a Power Five opponent.
…
Pac-12
The nonconference schedule for the Pac-12 stands out in that it has the lowest percentage of games against other Power Five opponents at 27.8 percent. That is largely due to geography as the Pac-12 is relatively isolated from the rest of the major conferences. It also plays the lowest percentage of FCS opponents aside from the Big Ten.
…
Big 12
Due to its size and the fact that it plays a full round-robin conference schedule, the Big 12 has the fewest nonconference game of any league with just 30. One-third of those games are played on the road, which is the highest percentage of any conference.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/candid-coaches-real-talk-on-referees-college-football-rules-that-need-changing/
Candid coaches talking about refs and the rules.
From 1-5, how good are college referees at their job?
5 (Good) – 9%
4 (Above average) – 60%
3 (Average) – 22%
2 (Below average) – 9%
1 (Poor) – 0%
What on-field rule needs to be changed?
Pass interfernece / holding – 56%
High-low (chop) blocks – 13%
Managing tempo / spotting the ball – 13%
Made-up calls / overofficiating – 9%
Other (including targeting) – 9%
Explain yourselves
Coach who rated officials above average (4): “When you coach a small college, there’s no video, no replay, no TV. When we got to TV, we had three cameras; now we have 7-10 camera games. Everybody in America has a better view of the game than the officials.”
Coach on the best officials: “I think the best referees by far are in the Big Ten. And the Big Ten doesn’t totally appeal to me because I think it’s kind of boring. They’ve had the best referees for a long time. No matter where we’re at, I’d rather have Big Ten refs.”
On the excessive celebration penalty: “The only [rule] I never understood very much was celebration — if it was spontaneous. As long as nobody is humiliating an opponent. There ought to be a little more flexibility. We ask our kids to play with enthusiasm, with exuberance and with emotion and for the game to be fun. Sometimes, the rules, we see them through 60-year-old white guy glasses.”
On targeting: “I would change kids being kicked out for targeting. I would still have the penalty. I don’t like that you have to sit out the next game if it happens in the second half. We only have 12 games. Let them sit out five minutes, penalty box.”
On a different officiating change: “I would definitely change the umpire’s position — right in the middle of the linebackers. I’ve seen a safety go around the umpire, and the ball goes the other way and goes for a touchdown.”
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/lessons-learned-from-college-football-playoff.html
What might the CFP teach us this year?
Through three years of observing the College Football Playoff, there are a few takeaways we can take from the evidence provided thus far:
* The weekly rankings in October and November aren’t worth a dime.
* Projecting what the selection committee will do is not a science; it’s a pure guessing game.
* Every season will be different.
* Winning games is good, losing games is bad.
…
2014: You can recover from early losses, but you must look good
…
2015: Some years, things just work out
…
2016: Conference championships are important, but not required
…
Here are a few things we have yet to see and may or may not see this season;
* Two-loss conference champion in Playoff. (Florida State?)
* Notre Dame reaching playoff, thus leaving TWO power conferences out of the Playoff by default.
* Two teams from same conference reaching Playoff. (Ohio State and Penn State this season?)
* Group of Five team in playoff discussion. (If Colorado State beats Alabama, we’ll talk.)
An 11-2 team will get in sooner rather than later. Likewise, a P5 conference getting 2 teams in will happen soon. You’d think ND would make it eventually, but they’ve only won 11+ games once since 1993 (won 10 3 times). It could be a while before it happens again or it could be this year. It will be rare for a G5 team to make it. I’d guess the playoff will expand before a G5 ever makes it. Even at 13-0 most G5 champs aren’t clearly on par with the P5 champs.
Another CFP note:
The NCG winner has rotated by conference so far (B10, SEC, ACC). The BCS also rotated to start (SEC, ACC, B12, Big East, B10, SEC – 1st repeat, P10). If the B10 can’t win it again, I’d like to see the rotation continue (P12 or B12) just to spread the wealth and stop the easy narratives.
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Rutgers marketing department is having fun with what is likely to be a pretty bad loss to Washingon on opening day, Sept 1. They are giving the game a Jersey shore theme, which is not strange since New Brunswick is only a few miles from the Shore. They are putting a jacuzzi, or maybe a swimming pool in the student section. https://www.onthebanks.com/2017/8/18/16169752/national-media-predictably-mocks-war-before-the-shore-promotion-for-rutgers-home-opener-big-ten
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It’s a little amusing to me because so many RU fans hate that people tie the TV show “Jersey Shore” to RU and NJ in general. They need to be really careful about when they capitalize the “s” in shore. NJ.com had a story about it and capitalized the “s” at least once when it shouldn’t have been.
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Actually, Jersey Shore is capitalized a lot. It is almost as though it is the name of a town, like Atlantic City or Asbury Park.
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It is capitalized a lot, but it makes everyone outside NJ/mid-Atlantic think of the TV show and not the region. I’m just saying it’s an unfortunate lead in to jokes that RU fans have been trying to avoid.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/20370632/after-hearing-unc-now-awaits-ncaa-ruling-academic-case
UNC’s NCAA hearing now over. We should hear the results in 6 weeks to 3 months.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/the-bad-boy-mowers-gasparilla-bowl-is-an-actual-thing-in-college-football-now.html
The St. Petersburg Bowl will now be the Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl. And yes, they play on artificial turf.
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http://deadspin.com/the-desperate-future-of-cal-athletics-is-here-1797944572
A look at Cal’s financial problems. The new chancellor is working to cut Cal’s debt and athletics is getting a budget cut along with everyone else. The root problem for the AD is their stadium renovation deal that they will be paying off until 2113.
Ominously, the plan identified potential long-term savings through “reductions in program scope” of up to $8 million per year, which seems like a sure sign that entire sports will be cut.
Men’s soccer and men’s track and field might be among the first teams to go.
…
Roster size reductions are also on the table, since cutting sports outright would threaten the donor base. There are no easy answers.
But the worry isn’t merely that Cal will lose a team or two and go forward with, say, 27 teams instead of the 30 it has now. The looming debt is bigger than that and the challenges Cal faces are far more existential.
…
And the person making those will be someone other than Cal AD Mike Williams, who announced this week that he’ll be stepping down within the year.
http://deadspin.com/cal-is-fucked-because-of-its-stupid-stadium-deal-1795896858
More about just the stadium deal.
The Bears now owe at least $18 million per year in interest-only payments on the stadium debt, and that number will balloon to at least $26 million per year in 2032 when Berkeley starts paying off the principal stadium cost. Payments will increase until they peak at $37 million per year in 2039, then subside again in 2051 before Berkeley will owe $81 million in 2053. After that, the school is on the hook for $75 million more and will have six decades to pay it off.
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First, Brian I must say that whether or not I agree with you, you must be given credit for (virtually singlehandedly) carrying this board with commentary when not that much is happening.
As to Cal, that stadium deal and payment plan is absolutely insane. It is surprising that Rutgers did not do something like that, but they didn’t.
What Rutgers did years ago to save money was cut tennis and men’s crew (and maybe another team – I do not recall). There are still people who are absolutely bitter to this day and will not donated one penny. Right now there is a crew team which is not part of the school and is funded independently, since RU refuses to reinstate the sport even if privately funded. http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/05/rutgers_betraying_tradition_of_its_oldest_sport_by.html
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Yes, I’m like a personal aggregator. I’d love to have more comments from others, though.
I don’t think anyone understands what Cal was thinking. The project could’ve been much cheaper but they added on a whole lot of extras that weren’t required. I agree they should cut some sports, but I wonder if the issue is that those donors they worry about also give a lot to the academic side so the school has warned the AD to be careful. Also, their deficit is so large (around $20M) that no amount of cutting will fix it but at least they could make some progress.
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JersyB:
Don’t think Rutgers had $230M in quake upgrades required.
“Jon Wilner @wilnerhotline
Right here: Key to it all. U has moral obligation to assume at least part of $230M in quake retrofit given fball’s impact on campus at large ”
“Ryan Gorcey @RGBearTerritory
“My thoughts about this are that the seismic portion of that debt might be appropriate for the campus to assume.” – Carol Christ on Memorial”
“Jon Wilner @wilnerhotline
Regents ordered Cal to retrofit CMS b/c public safety concerns. That doesn’t seem like a burden that should fall entirely on IA ”
“Ryan Gorcey @RGBearTerritory
And given use of CMS by campus — Haas, visitors center, graduation, Goldman School of Public Policy — sharing cost makes sense “
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🚫
The circle is Memorial Stadium, the line is the Hayward fault.
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They were going to cut baseball, but donors helped keep it. This isn’t the first time they have had this discussion.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/preview-2017-houstons-major-push-for-expansion
Evidence Pete Fiutak doesn’t understand realignment.
Big 12, are you going to jump on Houston soon or risk losing it?
Of course, the whole world of college realignment and expansion is about business, not sports. Media markets and reach are why the Big Ten grabbed Maryland and Rutgers, and why the SEC pounced on Missouri and Texas A&M when they were there for the taking.
Houston continues to fit the profile of what conferences want for expansion – massive enrollment, huge TV market, inroads into the fertile recruiting base – but at some level, the on-the-field part of the equation plays a part, too.
Just good enough to be a positive for any conference, but not so good that’ll it’ll dominate and take over for one of the cornerstone programs, Houston has the right make-up – it could be another TCU, but with more to offer.
The problem? It’s in Texas, and the Big 12 already has a stranglehold on the state.
However, somewhere rolling around the SEC, ACC and Big Ten offices are the think-tank memos and proposals for what it might look like to add the nation’s eight-largest media market in a football-mad place.
You don’t think a Texas A&M/Houston rivalry would be a big deal for the SEC?
The Big Ten floated out the Texas trial balloon several years ago, and while the academic side of things would have to factor in, getting Houston would be a huge boon for the BTN. In terms of distance, Houston is around 500 miles closer to Lincoln, Nebraska than New Brunswick, New Jersey.
I’ll put the odds of the ACC, B10 or SEC ever adding UH at approximately 0. Academics would stop the B10, geography would stop the ACC and TAMU would stop the SEC.
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I agree. He seems to be missing the point that when the B1G floated the Texas trial balloon, it was U Texas, not State of Texas. The SEC does not need nor want Houston and why should they. If UT is number 1 in the state, TAMU is a decent 1A. Why didn’t he mention the PAC? They make as much sense (not much at all) as the B1G or SEC.
Could the ACC become desperate enough to go after Houston, as a 16 with ND as 15? I doubt it very much.
What Houston needs to do is somehow induce one of the other conferences to make believe that they have a serious interest and hope to force the hand of the Big 12. Is this realistic? No.
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I don’t see how it could work for the ACC. If they get ND, they aren’t desperate at all. Why take a geographical outlier like UH when UConn is in their footprint and Cincinnati is close? If the B12 is lucky then the ACC might offer to take WV off their hands and the B12 could take UH.
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http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
The preseason AP poll is out:
1. AL
2. OSU
3. FSU
4. USC
5. Clemson
6. PSU
7. OU
8. UW
9. WI
10. OkSU
11. MI
31. NW
40. NE
44. MSU
Top 25 by conference:
ACC – 5
B10 – 4
B12 – 5
P12 – 4
SEC – 6
Other – 1 (USF)
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/08/2017-ffwa-national-football-foundation-super-16-preseason-rankings
If anyone cares, here’s the FWAA/VFF Super 16 preseason poll:
1. AL
2. OSU
3. FSU
4. USC
5. Clemson
6. PSU
7. OU
8. UW
9. AU
10. OkSU
11. MI
12. WI
13. LSU
14. Stanford
15. UGA
16. UL
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Sorry, that’s FFWA/NFF.
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Part 1 of Wilner’s series on the P12N turning 5 – The Successes of the P12N. The full article is worth reading.
As I began plotting the Hotline’s multi-part examination of the Pac-12 Networks, it quickly became clear that one installment needed to address the successes … and that installment needed to be the first installment.
Dropped into the middle of the series — behind the upcoming look at what went wrong with DirecTV, or what media analysts think of the Pac12Nets — an overview of what has gone right might get lost.
That, in turn, would hinder my efforts to bring a measure of balance to the series.
…
Remember: The Pac-12 Networks were not pitched to the presidents/chancellors, and billed to the public, as an entity designed exclusively to generate maximum cash flow and exposure for football/men’s basketball.
They were created to make money and provide exposure for football/men’s basketball … and to promote the universities nationally and globally … and to showcase the unparalleled Olympic sports … and to provide the schools with a valuable, wholly-owned media company.
“Set against the original goals,” commissioner Larry Scott told me recently, “it has been a tremendous success.”
…
Even critics of the Pac-12 Networks — and I have spoken to many over the years — acknowledge the first-class production quality (of both events and studio shows), the cutting-edge technology on the TV Everywhere front and the platform for the Olympic sports that are so important to the conference.
Of the 850 live events, 600 had never been broadcast before, according to data provided by the Pac-12.
The platform has helped recruiting in all sports, including football. Arizona State coach Todd Graham credited exposure his program received on “The Drive” to a successful recruiting class in 2014.
The impact has been far greater for the Olympic sports, perhaps none more than women’s basketball.
…
“Across the board, (the Pac-12 Networks) have helped with recruiting, viewership and scheduling,’’ UCLA coach Cori Close told me.
‘It’s hard to put a price tag on it. It put us back on the map.”
The impact was immediate, Close said. In Nov. ’13, one recruiting cycle after the networks launched, UCLA signed what many considered the No. 1 recruiting class in the country.
Four of the signees were from California, with scholarship offers from powerhouses in the eastern half of the country.
“I don’t think we potentially sign the No. 1 class if not for the Pac-12 Networks,’’ Close said.
“It’s really important to families, coaches and the communities that they be able to continue to be a part of the players’ college experience. Before the Pac-12 Networks, that wasn’t possible.
“It allows us to connect with our fan base in a way we couldn’t before.”
…
One could make a reasonable case that cash to the campuses and distribution for football and men’s basketball constitute more than 50 percent of the Pac-12’s Networks reason for being (perhaps far more than 50 percent).
But for the remaining portion of their existence, whether that’s 49 percent or 33 percent or 10 percent — it all depends on your viewpoint — the networks have been an unqualified success.
Coming next in the series: A behind-the-scenes look at the DirecTV stalemate.
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I know the BTN has been a boon for Maryland women’s basketball in recruiting, but has it helped the sport elsewhere in the conference? Perhaps it has at Ohio State and Michigan State, but I’m not certain about the other members.
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Has ESPN finally “jumped the shark”. Pulling an Asian American announcer named Robert Lee off the UVa games because of the Charlottesville mess. How stupid does ESPN think that people are? Do they try and find the dumbest position that they can take? http://nypost.com/2017/08/22/espn-pulls-voice-from-uva-game-because-his-name-is-robert-lee/
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If this had been an article from the Onion, I would have chuckled. The fact that it is real is just…sad.
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It’s unfortunate, but ESPN is probably right that they would get complaints from some ignorant people out there who don’t bother to find out Lee’s ethnicity. They might even have faced a small protest. It’s a risk they don’t have to take so they moved him. At least they moved him to another game and didn’t cost him a job.
This is life in corporate America where people protest for no good reason but the negative PR can hurt the company.
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https://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/08/23/robert-lee-espn-decision-pull-announcer-broadcast
Richard Deitsch (SI’s media critic) wrote a column about it.
“If they don’t switch the guy, we get mocked for having a guy named Robert Lee on a Virginia game,” said the ESPNer. “Can’t win.”
…
ESPN senior director of communications Keri Potts told SI.com late Tuesday night that the company did not mandate Lee switch games and that the announcer was more comfortable not doing the assignment because of the potential mockery that could come from doing the game.
“We collectively made the decision with Robert to switch games as the tragic events in Charlottesville were unfolding, simply because of the coincidence of his name,” the company said in a statement. “In that moment it felt right to all parties. It’s a shame that this is even a topic of conversation and we regret that who calls play-by-play for a football game has become an issue.”
…
ESPN later issued additional comments, first to Yashar Ali of New York Magazine and then to other outlets: “No biggie until someone leaked it to embarrass us,” said an ESPN PR spokesperson. “They got their way. That’s what happened. No politically correct efforts. No race issues. Just trying to be supportive of a young guy who felt it best to avoid the potential zoo.”
…
If there is some humor to be derived from this now-circus, it came from Bob Ley, the longtime ESPNer who also shares a similar-sounding name with the Confederate general, and is nicknamed in-house at ESPN as “The General.”
“Rather worried my employee ID/pass may not admit me in the AM,” Ley tweeted. “Life, as scripted by @OnionSports.”
I understand the POV that says ESPN shouldn’t cave, but if the guy preferred to cover a different game to avoid the chaos then that’s a very different story. I also think it’s easy for outsiders to tell ESPN to stand up to protests when it’s not their money at risk.
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I would speculate that ESPN offended far more people by making this move. Will that ever reflect itself on the bottom line, who knows.
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I doubt it, but only because people on both sides are very reactive anymore. Large numbers seem to get upset about anything and everything.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-college-football-teams-do-the-most-with-the-least-talent-and-vice-versa/
Which teams do the most with the least talent?
To get a sense of which teams have gotten the most — and the least — out of their talent, I took ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ratings for each FBS program over the past two seasons,1 and plotted them against 247Sports.com’s Team Talent Composite scores. (The latter measures a roster’s strength by tracking how many highly touted prospects a team has at its disposal.) The overall relationship between FPI and roster talent is relatively strong — recruiting scores explain about 65 percent of the variation in team performance — but some teams have managed to rise above college football’s penchant for predestination.
…
Among Power Five schools, the top outperformers are a generally unsurprising collection of well-coached programs, such as the perennially overachieving Wisconsin Badgers, the Washington schools (both UW and WSU), plus Bill Snyder’s K-State and Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State squads. But ahead of them all might be a surprising team: the Oklahoma Sooners. OU got a reputation for losing big games under former coach Bob Stoops, but Stoops probably should have also gotten more credit for putting the Sooners in position to play those games in the first place, given the way they outplayed the expectations of their recruiting classes.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, there are programs that recruit like crazy but achieve only modest outcomes, like South Carolina, Texas and Georgia. The latter two in particular are storied programs that recruit off of their prestige, but both teams have found a way to mess up that advantage in recent seasons. There’s also no shortage of teams that field average talent but manage to be awful anyway, like Kansas and Rutgers. All of these schools serve as testament to the importance of coaching and player development in any program’s fate.
B10:
13. WI +8.4
20. IA +7.7
33. OSU +4.3
37. MN +3.8
39. MI +3.6
57. NW +0.8
63. PSU -0.3
68. MSU -1.2
74. IN -2.1
75. NE -2.1
81. IL -3.0
110. PU -7.9
117. UMD -8.7
127. RU
So our bad teams do even worse than their weak recruiting and OSU and MI outperform their talent. That should scare people.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/08/foxs_big_ten_football_team_pro.html
Fox has put out hype videos for all the B10 teams as part of their preseason CFB campaign. It’s nice to see Fox making a commercial push about the B10 (I don’t recall similar things in previous years for the B12 and P12), but these videos are a little weird.
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A fan poll asking about the P12N.
What is your opinion of the Pac-12 Networks?
Love ’em: They’re an unqualified success
Generally positive: Plenty to like but not flawless
Neutral: Don’t spend time thinking about them
Generally negative: Haven’t met my expectations
Hate ’em: They’re an unequivocal failure
Generally positive is winning with 42% right now. Generally negative is second at 26% with Hate ’em third at 14% (so 40% combined). Neutral is 4th with 11% leaving Love ’em last with 7%.
That means positive tops negative 49% to 40%. I know online polls are completely unscientific but it’s still an interesting split.
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Part 2 of Wilner’s series on the P12N – the DirecTV standoff.
It comes down to things like the Most Favored Nation clause and the differences between cable and satellite service (cable can turn networks off geographically and satellite can’t). DISH was okay with that because most of their customers are in the west but DirecTV has a lot of customers in the east with no interest in the P12N.
The account below is based on interviews with Chang, Scott and numerous other Hotline sources with direct knowledge of the Pac-12 Networks’ negotiations with DirecTV (and other distributors) during the pre- and post-launch windows.
…
“The packaging was not quite right initially,’’ Chang said.
So the Pac-12 moved on. In late July (still 2011), Scott announced the creation of the Pac-12 Networks with four founding partners from the cable realm:
…
“They did a deal with Time Warner (and others), and that boxed them in, and it boxed us in,’’ Chang said. “The way the deal was structured, the MFN, the packaging, how it was carried — it was difficult to get comfortable with.”
The key letters in that comment: MFN.
They stand for Most Favored Nation, the term used to describe a model for structuring carriage deals. MFNs guarantee the same fees for all distributors of given a content package, regardless of when they come on the scene.
(One source said MFNs are a way of making sure the initial carriage partner doesn’t look like a schmuck when subsequent deals are cut.)
Working with the cable partners, the Pac-12 structured its pricing package into three tiers:
Tier 1, the most expensive at approximately $0.80 per subscriber per month, was for the primary DMA (Designated Market Area). For the Pac-12/Bay Area feed, for example, this would be San Francisco.
Tier 2, believed to be in the $0.50 range, was for the outer DMA (i.e., Sacramento).
Tier 3, in the $0.10 range (approx), was for the Out-Of-Market region: Outside the conference’s six-state footprint.
This was a standard approach to pricing for the cable companies, which, because of their distribution method (i.e., the pipes into homes) have the ability to turn networks on or off.
Comcast could offer the Pac-12 Networks’ national feed on one system in Pennsylvania, for instance, but not on another.
“But DirecTV didn’t have the ability to do that, to turn it on and off,’’ said a source familiar with DTV’s reasoning. “So the economics didn’t work for them.”
In other words, DirecTV would have been on the hook for $0.10 per subscriber per month for all 15 million (approx) of its customers outside the Pac-12 footprint — that’s $18 million per year — whether those customers wanted the Pac-12 Networks’ national feed or not.
And the satellite giant believed that most customers in the eastern half of the country didn’t care about the content on the Pac-12 national feed.
…
“(The Pac-12) thought if they did the deals with the cable companies, the situation with DirecTV would work itself out,’’ a source said.
“They felt there was enough demand that DirecTV would agree. Did they miscalculate the market? Probably.”
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http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/08/25/pac-12-networks-the-university-presidents-weigh-in-part-three-of-the-pac-12-hotline-series/amp/
“The presidents take a long-term view,” Crow said. “We definitely want to see the revenue numbers enhanced at some point. We’re not overly interested in comparisons with the SEC and Big Ten. They live in their own worlds with their own areas of emphasis.”
For more Pac-12 coverage
follow Pac-12 Hotline on Flipboard.
Crow offered a telling response when asked about the impact media revenue can have on operating budgets — on the pool of money available for recruiting and hiring coaches.
“It’s highly, highly unlikely that you will see Pac-12 schools doing some of the things other schools have done in terms of coaches salaries. There’a belief that there needs to be some self-imposed limits to all this.” (Emphasis mine.)
“This whole notion that it’s all about revenue so you can hire more coaches and pay higher salaries,” he added, “that’s actually a piece of a broader set of equations.”
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There was also this.
Neither Ray or Crow tried to put a positive spin on the DirecTV impasse, however.
“For people to be critical because we don’t have DirecTV,” Crow said, “that’s not an unfair criticism … There’s a complicated pricing equation.” He added that the contract proposal was “at price point that we can’t accept.”
Ray’s view of Pac-12 Networks distribution and revenue:
“Failure would be losing money, and we are making money. Would It be a greater success if we were making a lot more money? Yes.”
Yes they’re happy, but they could be happier. It’s what you’d expect from the presidents. I’d also point out that they have a very different view of athletics than almost everyone else. If the alumni and fans get unhappy enough, then the presidents will too.
But I think you quoted something very interesting about coaches salaries. The B10 was saying the exact same things a decade ago and now we have 3 of the 5 highest paid coaches in CFB. If the P12 refuses to pay up, the better coaches will go east for more money. The market has been set and the P12 can’t change that. Besides, UW is paying Petersen almost $5M per year. OR is paying their DC over $1M. The coaching salaries are rising despite what the presidents say.
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http://www.lsufootball.net/tvschedule.htm
Don’t forget that CFB starts tomorrow.
Saturday’s games:
Florida A&M vs. Texas Southern 11:00 am ESPNU / WatchESPN
Oregon State at Colorado State 1:30 pm CBSSN / CBSSN Video
Portland State at BYU 2:00 pm ESPN / WatchESPN
Hawaii at UMass 5:00 pm ELVN / NESN+ / Video
Chattanooga vs. Jacksonville State 5:30 pm ESPN / WatchESPN
Colgate at Cal Poly 6:00 pm ESPNU / WatchESPN
South Florida at San Jose State 6:30 pm CBSSN / CBSSN Video
Rice vs. Stanford (Sydney) 9:00 pm ESPN / WatchESPN
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I should note that those are all in central time.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/08/25/illinois-to-stop-playing-war-chant-music-at-games/104947224/
The University of Illinois will no longer play “war chant” music at sporting events.
The University of Illinois will no longer play “war chant ” music during sporting events, ending a tradition that stemmed from the school’s former mascot Chief Illiniwek.
The decision to stop using the music was made at the end of last football season, athletic department spokesman Kent Brown said Friday. It wasn’t publicized until Thursday when athletic department representatives asked members of the student group Illini Pride to stop playing the song on a drum at a soccer game. The school’s band, the Marching Illini, had played the cadence at football games.
Illinois made the decision in an effort to be more inclusive and because students haven’t responded to it as much at football games recently, Brown said.
“There are people who felt that was an offensive Native American chant or music,” Brown said. “Another big part of that was that we had used it on third-down situations and our fan reaction to that was not as good as when we used our video board to prompt our fans.”
I suppose it makes sense since they got rid of the chief a while ago, but they are still the Illini.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/cfp-selection-committee-taught-us-2014-2016.html
Trends from the CFP to keep an eye on.
1. All 12 teams selected so far had only 1 loss. This will change eventually, but you need a big SOS advantage (or maybe champion status) for a 2-loss team to be above a 1-loss team.
2. All 12 also had at least 3 wins over committee ranked teams. SOS matters.
3. Close losses to good teams aren’t punished much if at all.
4. CCG losers aren’t punished much if at all (WI only fell 5 spots for 59-0).
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/youll-shake-your-head-at-how-michigan-responded-to-the-medias-foia-roster-request/
MI has refused a FOIA request from NJ.com for a team roster, claiming they have no responsive document. NJ.com was just wanting to run a story about NJ players on various B10 rosters but MI is the only school that doesn’t post a roster on their website.
Obviously, Michigan was jerking us around. The NCAA caps training camp rosters at 105 players and each school’s NCAA compliance office tracks the roster at all times for eligibility purposes.
When the transparent attempt to skirt the FOIA rules on the exact loophole predicted was pointed out, Michigan’s reply: Give us another week or so. We’ll see if we have such a document.
This sort of silliness shouldn’t be allowed. There is no tactical advantage in hiding your roster as opposing coaches know who is on your team. It’s not like they requested a depth chart. Delany should call MI’s AD and tell him to stop being a jackass.
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I’m curious what the posters here think about Purdue President Mitch Daniels? He’s been terribly innovative…long term tuition freezes, purchasing Kaplan University, challenging tenure tracks, etc. Here’s a pretty good Q&A with him. Bob Sykes, knowing your background, I’m very interested for your take.
http://m.kpcnews.com/opinions/other_columnists/kpcnews/article_47c9e7d5-fab9-50f3-a443-622c2105c874.html?mode=jqm
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Apparently a lot of faculty aren’t thrilled with him for what that’s worth. I think his innovations have been a mixed bag and it remains to be seen what his impact will be on the quality of a PU education since it takes time for changes to filter down and impact results.
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First, I don’t take the statement of the disaffected faculty very seriously, nor do I believe they are representative of the faculty as a whole. I taught civil engineering for two years at an elite private college, Union in Schenectady, and for 35 years at Ohio State. (Saw Archie’s first play from scrimmage.) In general colleges are nests of disaffected people and ginning up opposition to whatever the current administration does is easy. A lot of tOSU faculty hated Gordon Gee. I liked him.
As to Purdue’s acquisition of Kaplan, I am generally supportive. I got my BS from Northeastern University when it was still a commuter school and still served working class kids like myself. Northeastern, like many colleges, has abandoned the working class, especially working class whites. Schools like Kaplan still serve them, and Daniels and his staff think they do so well. Whatever the effect on the self-esteem of some Purdue faculty, Kaplan’s relationship with Purdue will help the Kaplan students. By the way, back when Northeastern served Boston’s working class, they also ran a night school (forgot its name) that was kept separate from the regular day school. Night school students got a separately named degree, and they had to apply to transfer to the regular school. There were a couple of transfers in my classes, and they generally were good students.
Daniels’ emphasis on tying student achievement to promotion and tenure decisions is a generally good idea. I served as my department’s P&T chair for a number of years, and the emphasis on mere bean counting (number of papers, number of dollars) is a disease in academia. I saw a number of good junior faculty terminated because of bean counting. I eventually resigned as P&T chair.
My time at Ohio State occurred when the Board of Trustees decided to make a major change in emphasis. In 1972, Ohio State emphasized undergraduate teaching, and it was an open admissions school. I believe that in the 70’s my department graduated one or two people who were close to being functionally illiterate, very frustrating to faculty. Of course, this made tOSU an outlier in the B1G (along with MSU), and it greatly offended the Board that Michigan was a prestigious research institute and tOSU wasn’t. They undertook a 30-year program of hiring and promotion that emphasized research productivity over teaching, and they switched to a selective admissions scheme. They largely succeeded. tOSU is now a well-regarded public research university, and while it doesn’t measure up to Texas or Berkeley (Berkeley doesn’t anymore), it is certainly representative of the B1G, which is highly regarded academically. I could never have been hired or promoted under the current regime. The students at tOSU are more intelligent than their fathers and grandfathers, and the faculty are much better technically, but I’m not sure the new tOSU serves Ohio and its children any better, especially if the goal is to make working class kids middle class adults.
1966 was my first year at Purdue, and Bob Griese’s last. Purdue then was an elite engineering graduate school (It still is.), and it had an elite athletic program (not anymore). They are not mutually exclusive. In fact, a number of years ago, I and a colleague ran a correlation study of college academic and football rankings, and it turned out they were positively and surprising well-correlated. I forget the details and lost the study. I suspect that a commitment to excellence is an institution trait that affects all its activities. I note that while tOSU’s academic programs improved substantially, its athletic programs also improved (I know, MBB.). I hope that Daniels will reverse Purdue’s recent deemphasis of athletics and return the Boilermakers to the excellence of its past.
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Why did you feel it important to make a distinction between “the working class” and “working class whites” that Northeastern no longer supports?
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Thank you. Very informative. FWIW, I’m close to a recently retired senior administrative official with the school and his opinions echo yours.
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An interesting stat I heard today in reference to 6 years of frozen tuition is that last year 54% of undergrad graduates left the school debt-free. I think that’s great.
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Wonder if Loci is in Australia.
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Snyder brings home USA team championship with his third world title!
http://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2017/August/26/Snyder-beats-Sadulaev-Burroughs-gets-gold-Green-silver-and-Team-USA-wins-title
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For those that don’t follow wrestling, Snyder/Sadulaev was hugely hyhped and is something we may see many times in the future.
The last match was the finals at 97 kg/213 lbs., where 2016 Olympic champion and 2015 World champion Kyle Snyder (Woodbine, Md./Titan Mercury WC/Ohio RTC) and 2016 Olympic champion and two-time World champion Abdusalim Sadulaev of Russia met for the first time.
Sadulaev who moved up a weight class this year to challenge Snyder. It is a matchup the wrestling world has dreamed about all year. United World Wrestling dubbed it the match of the century. In this case, it not only determined the king of the sport, but also which country would become World Team Champions.
And a great showing for former B10 wrestlers as well. Snyder is still at OSU, but 2 former Huskers medalled (Burroughs – gold, Green – silver) as did a former Hawkeye (Gilman – silver). 2 other Americans won bronze (Cox from MO and Gwiazdowski from NCSU).
This was only the 3rd team title for the US.
Weight class results:
57 kg – silver
61 kg – DNP (lost in the round before the bronze medal matches)
65 kg – DNP
70 kg – silver
74 kg – gold
86 kg – bronze
97 kg – gold
125 kg – bronze
The US also won 1 gold, 1 silver and 1 bronze in the women’s freestyle (8 weight classes). We won nothing in Greco-Roman (men only).
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Thoughts and prayers to all those along the Texas Gulf Coast.
It looks like next weekend’s LSU v BYU game in Houston will be moved, with the Superdome as the most likely landing spot.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_7dc71b26-8b37-11e7-ae65-f7490ec3f78b.html
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Obviously Harvey is terrible for Houston and the surrounding areas and of course the game should move. It’d be a major blow to BYU to make it an LSU home game or pseudo-home game (Superdome). Beating LSU anywhere is hard and they were expecting a “neutral” site (say 65% LSU fans) rather than 90% LSU fans. I hope they can find someplace a little more fair to BYU.
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Here’s an update on the LSU/BYU game.
While the final decision won’t be made until tomorrow, Houston, Baton Rouge and Provo appear to be out. The Superdome is still under consideration, but with Harvey jogging to the east, New Orleans could get a lot of rain. Orlando, Nashville, Jacksonville, and Dallas (Cotton Bowl) remain possibilities. Dallas may not have security to work the game, as first responders in Texas may be helping out with the hurricane.
Since ESPN will make the final call, if there is any doubt about the weather in New Orleans, I’d expect Orlando to get the game. ESPN owns the game and Disney owns ESPN.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_c5310522-8c12-11e7-b181-872b316b4b2a.html
Brian – BYU sold 9,400 tickets for the game in Houston, LSU sold 23,000 through the LSU ticket office and LSU fans bought almost all of the open tickets. Houston is the biggest LSU alumni base outside of Louisiana. If the game would have been played in Houston, NRG would have been filled with at least 80% LSU fans. If the game is not played in New Orleans or Dallas, there will only be 25-30,000 fans show up in the other cities.
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Alan from Baton Rouge,
“While the final decision won’t be made until tomorrow, Houston, Baton Rouge and Provo appear to be out. The Superdome is still under consideration, but with Harvey jogging to the east, New Orleans could get a lot of rain. Orlando, Nashville, Jacksonville, and Dallas (Cotton Bowl) remain possibilities. Dallas may not have security to work the game, as first responders in Texas may be helping out with the hurricane.”
Due to the weather and issues with refugees, I’d think sites in TX and LA should be off the list. There are too many potential problems to choose them. A site in FL or elsewhere seems to make the most sense.
“Since ESPN will make the final call, if there is any doubt about the weather in New Orleans, I’d expect Orlando to get the game. ESPN owns the game and Disney owns ESPN.”
II have no idea which FL site they might favor. Orlando is as good as any and hotel space shouldn’t be an issue.
“Brian – BYU sold 9,400 tickets for the game in Houston, LSU sold 23,000 through the LSU ticket office and LSU fans bought almost all of the open tickets. Houston is the biggest LSU alumni base outside of Louisiana. If the game would have been played in Houston, NRG would have been filled with at least 80% LSU fans.”
How do you know LSU fans bought almost all the open tickets? It wouldn’t surprise me, but there are also LDS people in the south who might be interested. And maybe a decent number of the “neutral” fans in attendance would root for BYU as the underdog.
“If the game is not played in New Orleans or Dallas, there will only be 25-30,000 fans show up in the other cities.”
Maybe not even that many unless Orlando gave free tickets out or something.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20486942/former-baylor-bears-coach-art-briles-hired-assistant-coach-hamilton-tiger-cats-canadian-football-league
Art Briles has been hired by a CFL team as the assistant head coach for offense. June Jones is the HC there, just promoted after the original HC resigned due to the team being 0-8.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20491001/art-briles-join-hamilton-tiger-cats-coaching-staff-according-statement-cfl-team
And just like that he will not be coaching for them.
“Art Briles will no longer be joining the Hamilton Tiger-Cats as a coach,” the CFL and the Tiger-Cats said in a joint statement. “We came to this decision this evening following a lengthy discussion between the league and the Hamilton organization. We wish Mr. Briles all the best in his future endeavours.”
How long until an NFL team picks him up as an analyst?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/big12/2017/08/29/cfl-hamilton-tiger-cats-art-briles-underestimated-tsunami-negativity/612913001/
The Hamilton CEO underestimated the tsunami of negativity the hiring would generate.
“Most of the tsunami of negativity started in the (United) States,” Mitchell said on SN590 The Fan in Toronto. “I think most of the social media activity was generated out of the States, where Art Briles and Baylor is still a very, very fresh issue. I think we clearly underestimated that. … We underestimated the tsunami of negativity that was going to happen, and we made a mistake in trying to contemplate a second chance vs. the impact of what had happened at Baylor.”
Mitchell said he felt strongly that Briles deserved a second chance despite the team’s ultimate decision, and deflected blame toward the media and public perception as to why Briles has remained jobless since May of 2016.
“I think as the day went on, it just became very clear that despite the fact that most people in life believe in second chances, it just became very clear that this was just not acceptable to people,” Mitchell said. “We felt he deserved a second opportunity. Clearly that’s unacceptable to society today. It’s unacceptable to the media that have taken on the issue.
“I think anything related to domestic violence is — for good reason — so toxic that regardless of what limited or extreme level someone may have had in it, it’s just totally unacceptable to the public that somebody is going to be allowed to work, based on that experience right now.”
Tiger-Cats owner Bob Young said in a statement that his organization made a “large and serious mistake.”
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Wilner’s series part 4 – The media analysts evaluate the P12N.
My goal with this installment was to collect feedback from a handful of panelist across the media landscape — from journalists, academics and analysts alike.
I included participants who who don’t watch the Pac12Nets regularly (or at all), and that was intentional.
After all, limited distribution is part of the Pac-12 Networks story — a significant part of the story, in fact.
Each panelist was asked to:
1. Grade and assess the Pac-12 Networks using whatever criteria he/she sees fit.
2. Address the stalemate with DirecTV and the potential outcomes.
3. Peer into the future of the Pac-12 Networks: Should the conference hold tight to the current model, sell equity, eliminate the regional feeds (or something else)?
…
*** Paola Boivin
Who she is: Former columnist for the Arizona Republic, now professor of sports journalism at ASU’s renown Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communications.
Grade: C+
…
What’s next: “Something has to change. Sell equity and secure a TV partner seems to be the most successful formula. I respect Larry Scott’s vision immensely and believe he has done a lot for the conference (I remember what it used to be). But the Pac-12 Networks needs a major facelift.”
*** Ken Fang
Who he is: Associate editor at Awful Announcing, which writes frequently about college sports programming and distribution issues.
Grade: F
…
What’s next: “Larry Scott should look at the successes of the Big Ten Network and SEC Network for guidance. B1G partnered with Fox while SEC went with ESPN. Both networks understand the cable game and bundled their channels with their other networks. Pac-12 has no one to partner with. It should sell an equity stake to either ESPN, Fox, NBC or Turner so it can be bundled and improve distribution. The current model isn’t working.“
*** John Ourand
Who he is: Reporter for the SportsBusiness Daily and arguably the most respected sports-business journalist in the country.
Grade: C-
…
What’s next: “I expect the conference to look at some sort of direct-to-consumer offering (think an over-the-top service) to get consumers to sample its programming.”
*** Dan Shevchik
Who he is: A former competitive swimmer and Harvard graduate, Shevchik is the VP for Sports Media Advisors, a boutique firm with clients throughout the sports world. He focuses on rights valuations and multi-platform media strategies.
Grade: A-
…
What’s next: “As an outsider, it’s hard to comment. Any of those paths (stay the course, sell equity, eliminate regional feeds) might be optimal depending on the details of the valuation, potential partners, cash flow needs, ongoing costs, etc. It does seem like selling some equity to a partner who could provide negotiating leverage might make sense, depending on the valuation they can get.”
For more Pac-12 coverage
follow Pac-12 Hotline on Flipboard.
*** Jon Wilner
Who he is: Guy with computer who has authored a sentence or two about the Pac-12 Networks over the years.
Grade: B-
…
What’s next: I’ll examine this topic in an upcoming installment of the Hotline series, with commentary from folks who know far more than I do. But keep in mind that Larry Scott has hooked every shred of Pac-12 content to the next round of Tier 1 negotiations, which should ramp up in 2022-23. Each year we draw closer to that window, the less reason exists for the conference has to abandon its current model. It would decimate the long-term value accrued at the expense of short-term cash flow.
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“But keep in mind that Larry Scott has hooked every shred of Pac-12 content to the next round of Tier 1 negotiations…”
???
“But keep in mind…”
What is in my mind that I need to supplement with this emotional assertion (every shred of…)? What makes Wilner think anyone would not use what’s available in a negotiation? Is he just stating that those with conf net partners may not have all conference content available, in an odd turn of phrase?
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ccrider55,
“What is in my mind that I need to supplement with this emotional assertion (every shred of…)? What makes Wilner think anyone would not use what’s available in a negotiation? Is he just stating that those with conf net partners may not have all conference content available, in an odd turn of phrase?”
Maybe what he’s saying is that potentially all of their rights (tiers 1-3) are up for grabs (to some extent or in a certain way in terms of tier 3) at the same time, not just some of them. Most of the deals lately have been just tier 3 (SECN, ACCN, etc) or just tiers 1 and 2 (B10, etc).
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Agreed. I just don’t understand the “But…” or “…every shred…” comments. Am I misunderstanding and Wilner is actually not indicating it as a negative?
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I don’t think it was well written. I don’t think he intended it as a negative but rather to highlight how much is on the line in those discussions (and maybe he does see that as a negative in and of itself).
Hopefully that future piece will clarify his position.
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It’s official. The LSU BYU game will be played in New Orleans.
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That was probably the easiest choice with the least extra travel for everyone.
Still, NO is expecting up to 10″ of rain from Harvey this week and they’re still struggling to get their drainage system to work fully. I really hope Harvey doesn’t go a little more east before turning north, or worse go over the gulf before coming back in, or else NO may flood significantly as well. Let’s hope this works out for everyone. The last thing NO needs is another flood and the last thing LSU needs is another cancelled game.
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Les Miles has a job.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_cbdc7314-8ce6-11e7-9734-a73b10cae2b7.html
His first assignment for Fox is the Nebraska v No. Illinois game in week 3. Les’ youngest son is a freshman fullback with the Huskers.
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He could be very good at it as long as he’s willing to be honest and insightful rather than just give coachspeak.
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The future of bowl games from a Sugar Bowl perspective.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/article_d19f91a4-8cfb-11e7-9875-c3cd60e7638c.html
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The Sugar Bowl did have a lot working against it last season.
A man cave with a 75-inch high-definition TV sure beats Section 637.
That was the case for the most recent Allstate Sugar Bowl. Official attendance for Oklahoma’s 35-19 victory against Auburn was 54,077, the lowest since Tulane Stadium was expanded following the 1939 season. The unofficial eyeball test suggested there were at least 10,000 fewer in the house.
Thank you, College Football Playoff, for reducing the non-playoff bowls to the glorified exhibitions that in reality they always were. But the contrast for the top-tier games, with the exception of the Rose Bowl, is the most pronounced.
…
And then, in the Sugar Bowl’s case, throw in the extraordinary bad luck that required five teams (LSU, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Georgia and Florida) losing in November and December to make Auburn the first four-loss team in the game’s 83-year history. That severely reduced its fans’ travel fervor to a degree that surprised everyone.
Add in the fact that Oklahoma had been in the Sugar Bowl just three years before, and you had a perfect storm of Harvey-esque proportions combining to keep folks away.
“There were elements out of our control that we probably won’t see again,” Sugar Bowl CEO Paul Hoolahan said. “And there were some things we’ve seen coming and prepared for. Eventually, it all takes care of itself. Even with all of the challengers out there, we’ll be able to bounce back and remain an important economic engine for the city.”
Still, I’m a little surprised the attendance was that low. I think this is mainly a product of 2 things – the CFP reducing all the other bowls and the B12/SEC matchup not having much history. B12 fans didn’t grow up hoping to play in the Sugar Bowl or beat SEC teams, they wanted the Orange Bowl and then the Fiesta Bowl. Also most of the good B12 teams are far enough south that winter isn’t that oppressive, making travel less exciting. Combine that with the disappointments of missing the playoff and playing an 8-4 team and you get low turnout. I would’ve thought AU fans would be excited to get back to the Sugar Bowl, though.
The Orange, Fiesta, Peach and Cotton bowls must rebid for semifinals in the back half of the 12-year CFP arrangement, throwing open those games to other venues, just as the championship games are.
I had forgotten about that, but I think it’s largely a formality. What other site would top one of these? The Peach Bowl is the least historic game, but Atlanta has that fancy new stadium. The rest have a ton of history in CFB which matters to the CFP. I’d love to see Minneapolis or Detroit or Indy get into the mix but I think the weather concerns may keep that from ever happening. Las Vegas would have a chance when their new stadium is built.
Still, there’s got to be concern going forward. Hoolahan acknowledges the Sugar Bowl membership’s enthusiasm level has been tested by the CFP effectively taking ownership of the game, except for its staging. When, during the BCS days, you were considered an equal partner along with TV and, before then, maybe the dominant one — remember when the Sugar Bowl brokered championship games, or at least had schools vying to be invited? — it can be a little hard to swallow.
“We’re a volunteer organization with a high level of engagement,” Hoolahan said. “You’ve got to have incentive, and when they see our autonomy has been diminished, some people lose interest.”
And, Hoolahan admits, he and the folks at the Big 12 and SEC are somewhat at a loss for how to improve attendance down the road in those non-playoff years. Maybe they’re not used to marketing something when it was seldom needed before.
They should to talk to the people that run the next tier of bowls and see what they do. Places like the Citrus Bowl have been getting runners up with disappointed fans for years.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20507496/pac-12-conference-provides-more-details-test-program-shorten-length-football-games-season
The P12 is trying some new things to shorten games.
The Pac-12 on Wednesday announced further details on a test program intended to shorten the length of football games this season. The pilot initiative will be conducted at all nonconference games on Pac-12 Networks and will feature shortened halftimes, adjusted commercial formats and the moving up of kickoff times, depending on the particular game.
…
The plan is to shorten game length up to 10 minutes and reduce broadcast windows by up to 15 minutes.
Under the new initiative, all nonconference games shown on Pac-12 Networks, the TV and multimedia company of the Pac-12, this season — up to 15 games in total — will have reduced break times between the first and second quarters, along with the third and fourth quarters. Some games will also utilize a condensed break format, expected to reduce up to four additional minutes of break time.
To shorten halftime, both teams must agree on the proposed reduction from a 20-minute to a 15-minute halftime, according to the league’s release. At least six nonconference games on Pac-12 Networks will have shortened halftimes, including Arizona State vs. New Mexico, Arizona vs. Northern Arizona, UCLA vs. Hawaii, California vs. Weber State, Washington vs. Montana, and Colorado vs. Northern Colorado.
…
Pac-12 Networks will also experiment with “:01 kickoff times” for certain games. This would enable kickoffs to start closer to the listed game time.
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Ed Cunningham quit working for ESPN because of the dangers of CFB to the players.
“In its current state, there are some real dangers: broken limbs, wear and tear,” Cunningham said. “But the real crux of this is that I just don’t think the game is safe for the brain. To me, it’s unacceptable.”
…
“I could hardly disagree with anything he said,” Patrick, who will have a new broadcast partner this season in Cunningham’s absence, said in a phone interview. “The sport is at a crossroads. I love football — college football, pro football, any kind of football. It’s a wonderful sport. But now that I realize what it can do to people, that it can turn 40-, 50-year-old men into walking vegetables, how do you stay silent? Ed was in the vanguard of this. I give him all the credit in the world. And I’m going to be outspoken on it, in part because he led me to that drinking hole.”
…
He made it plain that he was not becoming an antifootball evangelist. The sport’s long-term success hinges on moving more urgently toward safety, especially at the youth and college levels, he said. He has pointed suggestions on ways to make the game safer.
But he grew weary of watching players be removed from the field on carts with little ceremony. (“We come back from the break and that guy with the broken leg is gone, and it’s just third-and-8,” he said.) He increasingly heard about former players, including former teammates and peers, experiencing the long-term effects of their injuries, especially brain trauma.
…
“I know a lot of people who say: ‘I just can’t cheer for the big hits anymore. I used to go nuts, and now I’m like, I hope he gets up,’” Cunningham said. His eyes welled with tears. “It’s changing for all of us. I don’t currently think the game is safe for the brain. And, oh, by the way, I’ve had teammates who have killed themselves. Dave Duerson put a shotgun to his chest so we could study his brain.”
…
The last straw, he said, was working the Outback Bowl in December, when he saw the Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard hobbled, taking hits and being left in the game until the final two minutes of a 30-3 blowout loss to Florida. Beathard went on to be taken in the third round of the N.F.L. draft by the San Francisco 49ers. The bowl game (“a game that means less than zero,” Cunningham said) still rankles Cunningham.
“I know some of the coaches from that team, known them for years,” he said. “And it was hard for me not to walk down after the game and just say: ‘Dudes, what are you doing? Really? What are you doing?’ These are just kids.”
…
Among his ideas: No contact before high school. Limit the number of plays per game in which a player may participate, something like a pitch count in baseball. Tougher rules, and even in-helmet sensors, for players who dip their heads to tackle. And changes to substantially soften the exterior of football helmets, into something more like memory foam, to reduce the weight and its utility as a weapon.
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https://theathletic.com/
Has anybody tried “The Athletic” yet? I haven’t, but I’ve heard some good things online. It’s a new sports site featuring many of the top sports journalists that have left other outlets recently. It’s entirely a pay site ($7.99/mo or $47.99/yr) that focuses more on long form journalism from what I can tell.
Their CFB site is: https://theathletic.com/all-american/
They currently have articles by:
Chris Vannini
Stewart Mandel
Max Olson
Jason Kersey
Nicole Auerbach
Chantel Jennings
Tom Luginbill
Brian Hamilton
Those are all on the front page. They also have more local pieces at the bottom of the page (currently MI, OSU, MSU and Stanford pieces).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20536457/florida-state-seminoles-reply-report-found-no-academic-fraud-probe
The NYT accused FSU of giving athletes special treatment in classes in 2013 and FSU denies any NCAA violations.
The New York Times on Friday reported that six players on the 2013 national championship team received special treatment in online courses. The university said in an email to The Associated Press that an independent investigation found no wrongdoing.
“Florida State University retained a leading law firm with a highly experienced collegiate sports practice to conduct an independent investigation of the course in question,” university spokeswoman Amy Farnum-Patronis said. “After a thorough examination of the facts, no NCAA violations were found. The course was subsequently modified for other reasons.”
…
Christina Suggs, a former teaching assistant and doctoral student, said in the book that she felt extra pressure to give breaks to student-athletes taking hospitality courses on coffee, tea and wine. Suggs provided evidence to the Florida State inspector general in August of 2013 before the case was taken over by university attorneys.
Suggs said she was pressured to raise the grade of former running back James Wilder Jr. McIntire also reported that Wilder and wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin plagiarized parts of a final project. Wilder was the most valuable player in the 2013 ACC Championship Game, while Benjamin caught the winning touchdown pass in the 2014 BCS National Championship Game win over Auburn a month later.
Suggs’ contract was not renewed toward the end of 2013. She left the school and died of a drug overdose following back surgery less than a year later. She was 48.
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I’ll grant this is as much Herman adjusting to his new digs at Texas as any inherent improvement by Maryland, but the Terps pulled a major shocker today in Austin, 51-41.
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Hopefully your QB’s injury isn’t too serious.
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A win against a ranked Texas is always a good win; though I assume most are questioning the logic behind ranking Texas in the preseason rankings (yeah I know those rankings are garbage in, garbage out, but Texas’ past couple seasons give absolutely no indication that there’s anything there; at least most preseason rankings are based on what’s left from the past season along with a new batch of recruits – a bunch of underperforming 4+ star recruits are not going to magically become studs after a couple years of underperforming, it’s almost never that easy).
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What should the polls do with FSU this week? You shouldn’t punish a team for playing a tough game, but they did lose 24-7 as well as lose their starting QB.
I think at worst FSU should drop behind OU. USC will probably drop, too.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/michigans-lineup-was-gutted-how-much-will-it-matter/
How much losing a starter hurts a CFB team the next year.
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I just saw an amazing stat. TN has given up 400+ yards of rushing in 4 of their last 6 regular season games against I-A teams. How can a coach stay employed like that? It’s one thing for GT to hit 400, but the last I-A 6 teams TN played in the regular season (in reverse order):
GT – 485 before OT
Vandy – 192
Missouri – 420
UK – 443
SC – 158
AL – 409
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches Poll
1. AL
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. PSU
5. USC
6. OU
7. UW
8. MI
9. FSU
10. OkSU
11. WI
28. UMD
34. NE
38. NW
41. IA
43. MN
Top 25 by conference:
ACC – 5
B10 – 4
B12 – 3
P12 – 5
SEC – 6
Other – 2 (USF, ND)
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http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll
1. AL
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. PSU
5. OU
6. USC
7. UW
8. MI
9. WI
10. FSU
Top 25 by conference:
ACC – 5
B10 – 4
B12 – 4
P12 – 4
SEC – 6
Other – 2 (USF, ND)
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/georgia-will-play-first-northern-road-game-since-1965-notre-dame-week.html
Some perspective on OOC scheduling by several SEC teams.
The future home and home series recently signed between Auburn and Penn State will be the Tigers’ first ever regular season matchup against a Big Ten team. When Florida lost to Michigan this weekend, it was the first time they had played a non-conference game out of state since all the way back in 1991. And although Alabama did make a trip to Penn State as part of a home and home in 2011, the Tide and Nick Saban are almost now exclusively playing all of their big non-conference matchups at neutral sites.
You can put Georgia in that same category. Gridiron Now dug up this great nugget – Goergia’s trip to South Bend this week is the Bulldogs’ first game north of the Mason-Dixon line since all the way back in 1965! Yes, it’s Georgia’s first trip north in 52 years!
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would have been nicer to see them come up to South Bend on that 3rd weekend in November usually reserved for an FCS warm-up prior to playing the Rambling Wreck.
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Georgia has played a number of games outside of the region, but they tended to go west (Arizona St., Oklahoma St.), not east or scheduled neighboring Clemson.
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The article does mention that (ASU, OkSU, etc).
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Bullet:
You still in Atlanta? Tropical storm warnings kinda unusual there.
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Didn’t seem that bad, but up to 64 mph at the airport. And lots of people without power as trees fell. We lost a huge tree, but it fell away from the house. Neighbor also lost a huge tree that took out power, but didn’t go near their house. Had it fallen the other way, it would have hit our house. Wife was saying that morning she was worried about that tree. Harvey hit all my family in Houston (from no impact to loss of everything) and then the rest of the family from Florida to South Georgia to Atlanta was in the path of Irma, but all seem to have come out of Irma relatively unscathed. We just had intermittent power losses and a near miss with our car (about a 100 lb limb somehow missed it by inches.
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Schools are closed tomorrow for the 3rd day due to widespread power outages and trees blocking roads.
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And Thursday for a 4th day. 1/3 of the schools in our district are still without power. It was 2/3 yesterday.
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I didn’t even lose power although my work did for 2 days.
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https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/2018/world-ranking#!/page/0/length/100/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/cols/stats
The 2018 Times Higher Education World University Rankings are out. I assume there aren’t major changes, but Oxford and Cambridge moved up to #1 and #2.
20. NW
21. MI
37. IL
43. WI
56. MN
60. PU
69. UMD
70. OSU
77. PSU
83. MSU
117. IN
172. RU
201-250. IA
301-350. NE
Also:
13. JHU
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20580851/conference-realignment-leveled-field-notre-dame
Did conference realignment level the playing field against Notre Dame? It’s a nice look at how ND has dropped off since realignment started and you can really trace the roots back to the 1984 Supreme Court decision against the NCAA controlling TV rights.
It has been 29 years since Notre Dame won a national championship. It has been 28 years since Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany held a conference call for his athletic directors and told them — he didn’t ask them, he told them — that Penn State had been voted into the league by its school presidents.
…
In the nearly three decades since, the Big 12 has come, the Southwest Conference has gone and Big East football has come and gone. College football on television has wallpapered the American Saturday. Every game of every major power is on the air, if not on the phone.
And in that time, Notre Dame stopped winning national championships. The Irish won 11 from 1924 through 1988, one every six years or so. Yes, there have been other dry spells in Fighting Irish history. The 10 years between Frank Leahy and Ara Parseghian (1954-63) defined mediocrity (51 wins, 48 losses). The Irish once went 17 years between national championships (1949-66).
Here’s a new 17-year stat for you: In the 17 seasons of this century, Notre Dame has beaten exactly one top-five team, No. 3 Michigan, 17-10 in 2005. That was the second game of the Charlie Weis era, and we know how that turned out.
…
“I’m not here to say we’ve performed as well as we’ve should. I just can’t find the connection to the realignment,” athletic director Jack Swarbrick said. “I can’t find the thing that I’d look to and say, ‘Boy, if we had done something differently … .'”
…
In the 1960s and ’70s, when the NCAA controlled its members’ TV rights and allowed no team to be televised more than two or three times a year, only one school had a nationally syndicated highlights show that ran on Sundays.
“You saw Notre Dame every weekend,” former Fighting Irish coach Tyrone Willingham said. “If they weren’t on the Saturday broadcast, I know, like a lot of kids, I ran home from church at noon to catch Notre Dame highlights.”
In 1984, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the NCAA could not demand control of a program’s TV rights as a condition of membership. Those rights belong to the schools. Seven years later, in 1991, Notre Dame sold its TV rights to NBC. A school with its own network … that, as it turned out, became just one more game in a sea of Saturday football.
The Supreme Court decision triggered the rise of power among the conferences, which packaged their members’ rights to sell to the TV networks. These days, every team is shown to someone pretty much every week.
To make those rights packages more attractive to the networks, conferences looked to broaden their geographic footprint — in other words, realignment.
…
Notre Dame is still a national team. It’s just not the only one.
“Notre Dame became just one of the players,” Kramer said. “…As that TV picture changed, it changed the image of Notre Dame. It was not just a stand-alone.”
There’s Alabama, whose best defensive player, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, is from New Jersey. There’s Ohio State, whose fifth-year quarterback, J.T. Barrett, is from Texas. So is Ronald Jones II, USC’s best rusher.
They are national teams, and they recruit whomever they want wherever they want.
Notre Dame no longer stands above the rest. It stands above most.
…
In the original iteration of the BCS, when the conferences needed Notre Dame to participate to legitimize the format, Notre Dame received a conference-sized payout for making a BCS bowl. For instance, in 2005, the Irish received $14.5 million for playing in the Fiesta Bowl, the same as the Big Ten received and shared among its members for Ohio State being on the other sideline.
But beginning the following year, the Irish received only $4.5 million per BCS gig, along with a guarantee of $1.3 million annually whether they reached a BCS bowl or not. In the College Football Playoff era, Notre Dame received $2.83 million last season. The Power Five conferences split $55 million among their 65 members.
Note: That’s $55M per P5 conference, not $55M total. Also, there are only 64 P5 members.
“I think the conference power is at its zenith now and is very, very strong,” Swarbrick said. “You get a conference that’s distributing $51 million [per team] versus whatever that school is getting from the NCAA, that just shows you. It’s a great measure of the shift.”
…
“Has there been a financial consequence? Only recently,” Swarbrick said. “But if the ACC Network works, we’ll be fine. And I look to the other [independents] who made the choice [to join a conference]: Penn State. Miami. How do we look and how do they look over those 30 years? It’s not very different. Miami had one period that they did a little better than us. But other than that, you look at the record and the top-20 finishes? The three of us, very similar.”
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http://awfulannouncing.com/nfl/get-ready-see-6-second-ads-nfl-fox.html
Fox is experimenting with 6 second ads during NFL games and the World Series this year. 15 and 30 second ads won’t go away, but a few of the short ones will get mixed in. If it works, expect CFB to see them as soon as 2018.
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2017/09/college-football-tv-ratings-fs1-maryland-texas-top-game-saturday-cable/
FS1 had the top-rated cable CFB game on Saturday for the first time ever with UMD vs UT pulling a 1.2 with 2M viewers. FS1 was aided by ESPN having a weak slate of games (BYU vs LSU pulled a 1.0 and 1.8M).
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What do Army, Brigham Young, Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest have in common? All will play football games at Liberty University within the next decade. In fact, UVa and Tech will visit Lynchburg a second time before 2030.
How did the Flames do it? A huge endowment ($1 billion, thanks in large part to an immense online program) and a desire to make the school the fundies’ equivalent of Notre Dame or BYU. Who needs Conference USA? https://pilotonline.com/sports/columnist/harry-minium/c-usa-rebuffed-liberty-s-generous-offer-to-join-but/article_4aef1fa8-6614-58ea-97f4-25805187fa70.html
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Jerry Falwell smiles.
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Let’s be clear, though, that those schools aren’t all doing home and homes.
Duke, Syracuse, UVA, VT, WF: 2 for 1 (UVA and VT do it twice each)
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Never said they were. (Also note that for two years, Liberty and New Mexico State will face each other twice.)
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I didn’t mean to imply you were claiming that. I was just clarifying for people that didn’t read the article. Getting 2 for 1s is much easier for a low level team like LU.
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http://thecomeback.com/nfl/10-reasons-why-college-football-is-better-than-the-nfl.html
10 reasons CFB is better than the NFL (to CFB fans).
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Part 5 in Wilner’s series on the P12N is about the Olympic sports coverage.
Is there substantive viewership for the Olympic sports that were at the heart of the conference’ decision to create the regional feeds — yes, the very same regional feeds that have contributed to the modest distribution and revenue numbers?
…
Without the emphasis on Olympic sports, which account for the vast majority of the 850 live events that are broadcast annually, the Pac-12 Networks would follow a more traditional, single-feed structure (think: Big Ten Network).
Based on all available evidence, that structure would be spitting out more cash to the campuses than the current enterprise.
…
The response: By policy, the Pac-12 doesn’t make viewership numbers public.
The conference has no problem promoting the percentage increase in viewers, but it won’t reveal the actual number of viewers.
…
I have also broached the issue with numerous industry sources, and the response is always the same. The Pac-12 doesn’t want the numbers out because the numbers aren’t good.
Based on the feedback — some of the sources were aware of the data on a general level — my best guess is that a few thousand viewers, at most, are watching any given Olympic sport event.
The figure is undoubtedly higher for a major gymnastics, softball, baseball or women’s basketball event. But it’s also undoubtedly lower for everything else.
Which makes you wonder: Is it all worthwhile?
Is the viewership/exposure for Olympics Sports enough to offset what the conference lost (in revenue and distribution) by not sticking to a single national feed with football and men’s basketball at its core?
We’ve already heard from two presidents on the matter, and both are happy with the Pac-12 Networks model and performance. (See link in the related articles box.)
But I’d guess most football and men’s basketball fans — and they account for the overwhelming majority of Pac-12 fans — would happily make the trade to the Big Ten Network model.
Now, it’s important to note that the Pac-12 has company: The Big Ten doesn’t release viewership data, either.
…
What’s more, the Pac-12 Networks:
*** Strain campus resources with production demands of campus personnel, which oh-by-the-way have other roles — like supporting the coaches and student athletes on an hour-to-hour basis.
*** Ask the Olympic sports to compete at times that are often inconvenient for fans and family hoping to attend — but that help fill out the broadcast schedule on a weekly basis.
Arizona State’s women’s soccer team, for example, played on a Friday at 4:30 p.m. in the middle of August so the Pac-12 Networks could broadcast the match.
…
*** Are a hugely expensive enterprise.
The production costs associated with broadcasting 850 live events are hidden from view on the conference’s annual tax filings (shocking!), but they indisputably limit the cash that could be sent to the campuses for staffing, facilities and student-athlete services.
In other words, the Pac-12 Networks structure designed to provide exposure for Olympic sports is limiting the revenue that could be dedicated to those very same Olympic sports.
Shouldn’t the conference at least share the viewership with the athletic departments?
Of course, that approach would lead to the information becoming available through public records request, and then we would all know how many people are not watching.
…
None of this is to suggest that the Pac-12 Networks should necessarily abandon the regional feeds and philosophy of showcasing Olympic sports — plenty of good comes of it, as we noted in the first installment of this series.
But the conference needs to be transparent. It needs to share its viewership numbers. And if those numbers are as poor as expected, the Pac-12 should stand up and own them.
I understand where he’s coming from, but he’s tilting at windmills here. The P12N is a private enterprise and under no obligation to provide this data. I’m guessing the presidents (and maybe ADs) actually have an idea of what the numbers are anyway and they are happy with the results. They wanted the exposure. It doesn’t actually matter if anyone is watching, it’s the fact that they can watch if they want to that matters.
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Why would football and basketball fans care?
Texas was going to do the LHN if it cost them money.
I could see other conferences adding regional feeds, but with 3-4 schools, not just 2.
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bullet,
“Why would football and basketball fans care?”
Money. The regional networks lose money and hurt the P12N in distribution deals, so the ADs aren’t maximizing revenues and thus aren’t spending as much on football and MBB as they could.
“Texas was going to do the LHN if it cost them money.”
But it was never going to undermine how much was spent on CFB or MBB at UT. And if the LHN was losing money for UT, do you think they would’ve resisted a B12N as strongly? Or would they have let the B12N show CFB and MBB and let LHN focus on minor sports and academics?
“I could see other conferences adding regional feeds, but with 3-4 schools, not just 2.”
I don’t think the money is there. With cord cutting, I think streaming will be the preferred choice. Who needs a regional TV network when you can stream any game you care about from any sport? That said, I think the SEC could’ve made regional networks work. Maybe the B10 too.
SEC:
W – TAMU, LSU, AR, MO
C – AL, AU, MS, MsSU
N – TN, VU, UK
E – SC, UGA, UF
B10:
W – NE, MN, WI, IA
C – NW, IL, PU, IN
N – MI, MSU, OSU
E – PSU, RU, UMD
You could try even more (AL and AU each have their own but they’re bundled, OSU separate, etc) but I don’t think they’re needed. I understand the idea behind the P12N regional feeds but there just aren’t enough events of interest to a sufficient number of people to justify them in my opinion. I think they’ll drop them in favor of streaming in the future.
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“With cord cutting, I think streaming will be the preferred choice. Who needs a regional TV network when you can stream any game you care about from any sport?”
You still need someone with rights to produce the broadcast for whatever distribution model is being employed. There will still be regional interests at some level and production needs.
Do additional channels actually cost P12N much? All seven aren’t available to customers. Just the national and the designated region. The other channels, plus stuff not “broadcast” on P12N proper is is available over web.
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ccrider55,
“You still need someone with rights to produce the broadcast for whatever distribution model is being employed. There will still be regional interests at some level and production needs.”
For the number of viewers of Olympic events, you can easily have students producing the broadcasts of events as many other schools do for web streaming. Nobody is paying for the rights to swimming and cross country.
“Do additional channels actually cost P12N much?”
Apparently. One way they cost is that the regionals allegedly have prevented or reduced some distribution deals. You also have 7 networks worth of events to produce professionally. That’s employing a bunch of people.
“All seven aren’t available to customers. Just the national and the designated region.”
Not true. Providers can carry between 1 and 7 of the feeds. Some of the streaming services offer all 6 regional feeds, for example.
“The other channels, plus stuff not “broadcast” on P12N proper is is available over web.”
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http://www.sfchronicle.com/news/article/Some-ADs-grumble-about-Pac-12-Networks-10910339.php
Re: Costs
“We’re seven networks,” she said. “We’re managing athletic (web)sites for the schools. We’re producing content for each of the universities. We’re owned by the universities. We’re an extension of the conference and the universities. We’re providing a lot of media support that the other schools aren’t getting from their media companies. We’re the only conference to partner with Twitter for our broadband service live stream.”
I’m guessing all those extra services cost money.
Of the three major conference networks, the Pac-12 Networks claim to show the most live events. Among its 850 annual broadcasts are roughly 35 football games, 100 men’s basketball games and 40 women’s basketball games. The rest are in less visible sports. About 350 events are on the national network and 500 on the regional networks.
The Big Ten says its network shows 504 events on its linear network and streams another 1,000 online. ESPN says 486 events were shown in 2015-16 on the SEC Network and more than 1,100 on SEC Network Plus, its digital platform.
…
At one point last year, the Pac-12 considered eliminating the regional networks in favor of one feed. That idea was rejected because one network couldn’t handle all 850 events, a number stipulated by the contracts with service providers.
The regionals combine to get them about 350 more events per year than a single network typically would show. That’s 60 events each, which doesn’t seem all the impressive. And even the P12 thought about ditching the model, they just can’t because of existing contracts. I wonder if they’ll lower the number of live events for future deals and show more tape delayed events on TV (stream them live) rather than keep the current plan.
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Brian: “The regionals combine to get them about 350 more events per year than a single network typically would show. That’s 60 events each, which doesn’t seem all the impressive.”
Yeah, it seems like they could merge to two divisional networks, or three regional networks ~ North-ex-Cali, Cali, South-ex-Cali ~ and meet commitments while reducing overheads.
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Intriguing piece from Politico on how the U.S. News & World Report rankings may in fact boost academic and economic inequality: https://www.politico.com/interactives/2017/top-college-rankings-list-2017-us-news-investigation/
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/091217aab.html
The B10 has released the 2020 and 2021 football schedules. These complete the first 6 years of parity-based scheduling cycle. As expected, they mirror the 2017-18 schedules in terms of home and away games. Starting in 2022 the locked crossovers should rotate to the next team in the same tier (and thus tell us what the final team will be unless the B10 makes changes).
I don’t foresee the B10 making any changes to the tiers they currently use:
Tier 1 = NE, WI, IA vs OSU, MI, PSU
Tier 2 = NW, MN, IL vs MSU, UMD, RU
Tier 3 = PU vs IN
Maybe after the 18 year cycle is complete they’ll make changes but it’s hard to see MSU displacing a king in the East. Maybe IA will get displaced, but it’s not a coincidence that the Tier 1 teams have 6 of the 7 stadiums in the B10 that seat 70,000+ (only MSU is also at that level with 75k+). Someone will have to clearly pass IA to take their spot. A tie will leave IA there.
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Iowa will close the season against Wisconsin instead of Nebraska. Nebraska will play Minnesota.
I wonder what drove that decision.
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As a side note, there still aren’t a lot of early B10 games.
2020:
Week 1 – 3
Week 2 – 0
Week 3 – 1
Week 4 – 3
Weeks 5-13 – 5+
2021:
Week 1 – 4
Week 2 – 0
Week 3 – 1
Week 4 – 3
Weeks 5-13 – 5+
In 2021 both OSU and PSU play their 3 crossovers first and then all 6 division games.
Also in 2021, the 3 eastern kings play a late round robin.
Week 11: MI @ PSU
Week 12: PSU @ OSU
Week 13: OSU @ MI
That should build a lot of hype all season if the teams are decent. PSU opens @WI that year while MI plays @WI in Week 5 and OSU plays @NE in Week 5.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20684502/big-ten-releases-conference-schedules-2020-2021-seasons
Something ESPN noticed:
The very last week of the year will also get a shake-up. Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Minnesota will swap their usual dance partners for their season finales. Iowa will face Wisconsin and Minnesota will face Nebraska to close out those years.
I wonder how long they’ve had that swap in mind. I thought they were trying to build the NE/IA rivalry up. Maybe they want to rotate the games to keep all those different rivalries (WI/IA, NE/IA, MN/IA, WI/NE, WI/MN) important.
It also looks like PSU is playing RU every year to end the season while MSU gets UMD. It had looked like it was rotating equally, but that stopped with these new schedules. It’ll be interesting to see what happens to these pairings over time.
2014 – start of new divisions
MSU @ PSU
RU @ UMD
2015
PSU @ MSU
UMD @ RU
2016 – start of 9 games
MSU @ PSU
RU @ UMD
2017
MSU @ RU
PSU @ UMD
2018
RU @ MSU
UMD @ PSU
2019
UMD @ MSU
RU @ PSU
2020
MSU @ UMD
PSU @ RU
2021
UMD @ MSU
RU @ PSU
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http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/college/football/iowa-hawkeyes-football-wisconsin-badgers-2020-2021-regular-season-finale-20170912
Some insight via an Iowa paper.
Iowa athletics director Gary Barta said Tuesday the change is simply a rotational device that has long been part of the league’s scheduling.
“It’s just a rotational thing, there’s no conspiracy,” Barta said. “We don’t sit around and say who we’d like to play. It rotates based on whatever the scheduling computer kicks out and then the Big Ten looks at it and makes sure it’s as fair as possible over a long period of time.”
I don’t buy that. Year end rivalries generally don’t just rotate. You’d think the B10 would make some sort of statement since they have to know this will draw a lot of scrutiny, but they prefer to hide their thinking about scheduling for some reason.
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Wisconsin and Iowa are adjacent states (ask anyone from Dubuque, although Illinois makes it a tri-state area), and Nebraska and Minnesota frequently met yearly in the Huskers’ pre-Big Ten days (51 times, including 33 between 1932 and ’74). As for the East, it’s a rotating deal among Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers, with the odd team out drawing Sparty.
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vp19,
“Wisconsin and Iowa are adjacent states (ask anyone from Dubuque, although Illinois makes it a tri-state area), and Nebraska and Minnesota frequently met yearly in the Huskers’ pre-Big Ten days (51 times, including 33 between 1932 and ’74).”
That’s all true, but it doesn’t really explain anything. The traditional season ender was WI/MN until 1983. Then it became WI/MSU until 1991. Then it started rotating. It has only been Iowa a handful of times. Is there a pressing reason to make it Iowa? Iowa seemed to enjoy ending with NE. NE fans initially wanted WI if anyone but they certainly don’t want MN. I’m just not seeing the pressure to make this change.
And yes, NE and MN played a lot of over the years but NE is 17-2 since the Devaney era started in 1962 and they didn’t play at all from 1991-2010. There is no rivalry there.
More importantly to the B10, does this pair of games draw more viewers than the current pair? Is there are gain for the conference in making this switch? I don’t see an emotional gain from making this change. If the B10 is planning to just slowly rotate through all 3 sets of games, that’s a reasonable plan I suppose. But it’s the sort of thing you should tell people, not hope they figure out 10 years from now.
“As for the East, it’s a rotating deal among Maryland, Penn State and Rutgers, with the odd team out drawing Sparty.”
Is it? That’s what we thought but the new schedules show 3 straight years of RU/PSU and UMD/MSU. That follows 2 years of RU/MSU and UMD/PSU. It started with 3 years of RU/UMD and PSU/MSU. The question is why 3 years of RU/PSU. Will they go to 4 to finish the home and home and then rotate? Will they go beyond 4?
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Some comments from the NE side of things.
Tom Osborne:
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/big-red-today-breakfast-tom-osborne-relives-nebraska-oklahoma-rivalry/article_440fe3ce-9959-11e7-9013-2f4526b46053.html
That, and the history between the two schools in general, is also why the legendary coach said on Thursday he never really bought into the Nebraska-Iowa rivalry.
…
However, the former coach and athletic director said he didn’t particularly like to hear when Iowa people called Nebraska its rival. It annoyed him, he said.
“Rivalries are based on history,” Osborne said.
And that was something Nebraska and Iowa did not have, he said, and why it was always hard for him to take seriously. And also why, if he had to choose, he’d select Oklahoma as Nebraska’s rival, not anyone in the Big Ten.
Mike Riley:
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/huskers-facing-gophers-not-hawkeyes-to-end-regular-seasons-in/article_127e9090-97eb-11e7-beb3-5f4a3cbc2c14.html
With the release of the Big Ten’s 2020 and 2021 football schedules, all signs point to the end of Nebraska’s traditional Black Friday game after the 2019 season.
NU coach Mike Riley approves.
“I don’t necessarily think it’s great,” Riley said of the day-after-Thanksgiving game Nebraska had played on national TV since 1990. “These kids are busy enough, and then you cram a game into a short week, and when you get to that time of the year, as you go, the physical recovery and doing the right thing for them, I’m not sure.
…
Nebraska also lost — for two seasons at least — Iowa as its final regular-season opponent.
“It does surprise me, yes,” Riley said. “Disappointing, probably. I just heard about it for the first time, that it wasn’t going to be the last game.”
…
“This whole division is pretty natural, but the Iowa-Nebraska thing is real,” Riley said. He compared it to several rivalry games he’s played or coached in: Alabama-Auburn, USC-UCLA, Stanford-Cal and Oregon-Oregon State.
Shawn Eichorst (same article):
“We have great respect and admiration for all the football programs in the Big Ten Conference,” Eichorst said. “As it pertains to scheduling, we support the Big Ten’s rotation of our opponents during the final weeks of the conference season.”
The B10 (same article):
An official at the Big Ten Conference told the World-Herald those four Big Ten West teams will rotate as one another’s final opponents every two years to create variety among divisional rivals. Four teams in the Big Ten East — Maryland, Michigan State, Penn State and Rutgers — will do the same.
“There’s no other hidden reason,” said Mark Rudner, Big Ten senior associate commissioner of television administration. “We’re just rotating the four teams.”
Rudner said it’s possible Nebraska and Wisconsin will then play on the final weekend in 2022 and 2023. Rudner said the Big Ten teams involved in the rotation gave unanimous approval. In a statement provided to The World-Herald, Nebraska Athletic Director Shawn Eichorst supported the league’s decision.
Except we know that isn’t really true. The teams in the East aren’t rotating every 2 years according to the already released schedules unless he means that’s a new policy starting in 2020 and is ignoring 2019.
To be clear, I don’t really care if they choose to rotate these pairings or not. I think it’s a slight mistake in the West (NE/IA + WI/MN > any other set of possible games) but it’s doesn’t directly impact my team. It makes more sense in the East although I think MSU/PSU + UMD/RU > any other possible games. Having some variety can be good if the emotional rivalry isn’t really there.
I think the B10’s PR approach to this, as with many things, was terrible. Don’t just release the schedules and then slowly explain yourself later as fans complain (and many fans have been complaining online in various places). Give an explanatory statement at the same time as you release the schedules knowing that this issue would come up. It’s PR 101.
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The cynical (hopeful) side of me feels, Big Ten doesn’t want those 3 schools to get used to playing Neb on a regular basis as end of year game. Reasoning? So once Oklahoma joins Big Ten, the Sooners will play Nebraska as end of year rival!!
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Another political mess at ESPN. What exactly can a sports network gain by being political. This type of publicity is not good for them. http://nypost.com/2017/09/13/jemele-hill-comments-have-turned-into-an-espn-firestorm/
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I’m not sure it’s fair to blame ESPN for “being political” here. One of their primary anchors chose to say something political on air and ESPN responded by calling her actions inappropriate (which they were whether one agrees with her or not). ESPN is in a no-win situation here as whatever they do is viewed as political. One side wants Hill punished while the other wants her to be publicly supported. I think ESPN aimed for the most neutral public response which has just aggravated everyone.
In the bigger picture, though, ESPN has made some changes recently that seemed destined to make things more politicized. The SC6 and midnight versions of SportsCenter are part of their push to be more personality driven, and with personalities comes opinions. I don’t think it’s possible to avoid talking about sports without mentioning race in sports (and thus politics) in today’s world, especially in a personality-driven show. You have ESPN making a push to have more minorities and women in prominent roles which is also divisive to some people, but not doing it also brings complaints.
I think ESPN is caught in the crossfire of a divided America with a large generational difference in media preferences. Studies show that millennials and younger people on average expect more diversity and more social justice support everywhere they go (at work, from media, etc). Then you have the corrosive atmosphere of politics in this nation with two entrenched sides that really seem to dislike or even hate each other and see everything anyone does in the light of politics.
I think this recent kerfuffle is the price of ESPN trying to be more edgy and personality-driven, which I assume they’re doing in an attempt to boost ratings with desirable demographics. Outside of sticking to the ESPNNews format, I’m not sure there’s any way ESPN can cover sports and avoid politics with all the ancillary issues in sports today. Maybe we’re headed for Fox Sports taking a cue from Fox News and we’ll end up with a left-wing and a right-wing sports conglomerate.
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ESPN’s problem is their double standard. They say nothing with her rant, but fire conservatives.
If they aren’t doing it on the air and aren’t doing it on an official twitter, the employer shouldn’t care. The fact that a lot of employers are starting to care is really a threat to our rights, much like the McCarthy era. They should just say people have the right to say what they want on their own time and they are not stating our corporate position. But the problem is that ESPN has shown that they do care if someone like Curt Schilling says something conservative.
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bullet,
“ESPN’s problem is their double standard. They say nothing with her rant, but fire conservatives.”
And thus you prove my point. Whatever they do will be considered wrong by some group.
And they didn’t say nothing, they publicly reprimanded her. You can still argue they have a double standard, but at least be factual about what they did. Start by whether there is a true comparison.
http://www.businessinsider.com/espn-jemele-hill-curt-schilling-perceived-liberal-bias-2017-9
Many are saying that this latest incident is just another example of ESPN’s liberal bias — that it fired Curt Schilling, the conservative-leaning baseball analyst, for something he did on social media but gave Hill something akin to a public scolding for calling President Donald Trump a white supremacist.
“The comments on Twitter from Jemele Hill regarding the president do not represent the position of ESPN,” the network wrote in a statement. “We have addressed this with Jemele, and she recognizes her actions were inappropriate.”
However, there is a simple reason Hill was not fired and Schilling was, and it only marginally has to do with politics.
Hill was not fired because this was the first time she violated ESPN’s rules on discussing politics. Schilling was fired because he had repeatedly been warned to stop and did not.
I don’t think of Business Insider as particularly liberal, but maybe others do. I’m choosing it for a neutral description of the differences between the two cases. It’s worth reading the whole piece if you don’t think they’re biased.
All that isn’t to say that ESPN doesn’t have a double standard. I haven’t studied their punishments enough to have an informed opinion on the matter. My impression is that they’re all over the map in how the punish people and half of what they do is behind the scenes so we don’t know about it.
“If they aren’t doing it on the air and aren’t doing it on an official twitter, the employer shouldn’t care. The fact that a lot of employers are starting to care is really a threat to our rights, much like the McCarthy era.”
We’ve never had a right not to suffer any consequences for public speech, just not to suffer them from the government. Employers have fired people for their “private” speech or behavior for centuries. It might seem nice to have complete freedom from consequences for public speech, but I think it would lead to an incredibly ugly society where everyone feels free to hate in public and dare you to do anything about it.
It’s even worse for a public media company.
“They should just say people have the right to say what they want on their own time and they are not stating our corporate position.”
That’s not sufficient to protect a media company any more. Everything one of their people does is held against them.
“But the problem is that ESPN has shown that they do care if someone like Curt Schilling says something conservative.”
Read the article. They cared because he had been warned multiple times and kept doing it.
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Business Insider, surprisingly, is extremely liberal. And its not just Curt Schilling. There are a couple others.
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He was warned. He was given an explanation. Nevertheless, he persisted.
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bullet,
“Business Insider, surprisingly, is extremely liberal.”
I believe you. I probably read 2-3 articles per year from them so I have no basis to judge their slant.
“And its not just Curt Schilling. There are a couple others.”
Schilling is the one most people have been bringing up. I’ve read about 1 or 2 others that claim it was their politics that got them fired but there’s no clear evidence it’s true. People that get fired often blame discrimination of some sort (age, gender, race, politics, religion, …). Sometimes they are right and sometimes they aren’t. ESPN has fired a ton of people lately and most of them were probably “liberal” if everyone is right about the bias at ESPN.
I’m not defending ESPN on this per se. I haven’t watched them regularly in years and based on descriptions I wouldn’t like their new direction for SportsCenter. I certainly have no interest in all their “debate” shows either. And as I said before, many people have noted that ESPN’s punishments have always been all over the map. That’s bad but might not show bias.
I was surprised Hill wasn’t briefly suspended. That would seem more in line with past punishments for things based on my memory. Those saying she should be fired are just crazy, though. There is no precedent to support that. Schilling was warned for the same behavior multiple times in a relatively short period of time before being fired – that’s different. Hill was last in trouble in 2008. That’s forever ago and it was for a completely different sort of comment – she brought up Hitler when discussing the Celtics in a column (and why didn’t the editor stop it?).
As for Linda Cohn, she wasn’t fired. Bernie claimed that “several conservatives have been fired for nothing worse than what Jemele Hill said.” I know there’s at least 1 other person who claims that’s why they were fired, but that’s hard to support with all the other firings ESPN has done lately. I haven’t seen any other firings as punishment for conservative statements. If someone can point me to them, I’m happy to reconsider.
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And now she persisted…and is suspended.
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Agree totally. The double standards are not even subtle. It is too late to put the genie back in the bottle. As you said, bullet, several conservatives have been fired for nothing worse than what Jemele Hill said. Now ESPN will not (and probably cannot) do anything to Hill.
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Jersey Bernie,
“As you said, bullet, several conservatives have been fired for nothing worse than what Jemele Hill said.”
Really? Name them. And look at the actual history of what they did (like Schilling being warned multiple times). This is the company that hired Rush Limbaugh to do MNF after all.
“Now ESPN will not (and probably cannot) do anything to Hill.”
Beyond what they already did? No, they probably won’t. Should they? Bullet argues above that nobody should be punished for this type of thing.
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Linda Cohn. There was another one, can’t think of the name. And Hill has done this before. https://sports.yahoo.com/espn-confirmed-bias-204714339.html
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https://www.theringer.com/2017/9/13/16299136/jemele-hill-espn-michael-smith-sportscenter-the-six
Here’s an in depth piece about Jemele Hill that coincidentally was published today. It doesn’t really discuss the current firestorm but tells you where her head is at and gives some insight into ESPN.
“Because we’re SportsCenter, we overthink a lot,” Hill told me. “We’re like, ‘Does this fit the SportsCenter brand?’ ‘Would this be OK?’ It’s not [ESPN executives] — they’re not putting pressure on us to do that. It’s just we’re in our own heads about it. … That’s some of the downside of how the label can suffocate you.”
This tension — between being the fearless opinion-slinger ESPN hired and honoring the legacy of a venerable franchise — isn’t just the kind of thing that’s on Jemele Hill’s mind. It’s the very dilemma of the network she’s trying to help reinvent.
…
ESPN’s transformation is usually described as swapping a highlight for a debate segment. But the changes are even more elemental than that. At the SC6 staff meeting, everyone had their heads buried in their social media feeds, looking for content for the show. “I’m a hawk on TweetDeck,” said Jeremy Lundblad, one of SC6’s producers.
Twitter is now the de facto coordinating producer of ESPN’s daytime lineup.
…
That kind of banter is exactly what filled His & Hers, which aired every day at noon. It’s radically different than almost anything that has appeared on SportsCenter. Last fall, after ESPN executives tapped Hill and Smith to host the 6 p.m. edition, they began to realize their mission was more than just creating a good show — it was working against 40 years of accumulated nostalgia, against the idea that a show called SportsCenter ought to be done a certain way.
One of the first things Hill and Smith did was ask if they could change the show’s title. Maybe call it something like SportsCenter Presents His & Hers. Management said no. “I will fully cop to having a strong SportsCenter bias,” Rob King, the executive in charge of the franchise, told me. The idea was to overhaul the brand rather than scrap it.
At times, it felt like ESPN was tearing an ACL in its attempts to tell cord-cutting millennials that SC6 was their kind of show. For weeks, the network ran an ad campaign that promised “Sports Music Movies + More.”
…
But if you watch SC6 every day, you realize pop culture is more often Hill and Smith’s go-to reference rather than their actual subject. When critics complain that they’re mixing genres, Smith hears the ring of a double standard. “When Bill Simmons does it, he’s celebrated for it …” he told me. “When [Scott] Van Pelt does it, he’s awesome, he’s everyman, we relate to him. When Barstool does it, they’re anti-establishment, they’re new, they’re fresh, they’re the anti-ESPN.
“When we do it? ‘Get this black shit out of here!’ That’s what it feels like.”
…
“If we struggle in any area with SportsCenter, it’s because we’re still trying to be all things to all people,” Smith said. “We’re trying to keep that person that’s just not gonna be kept, no matter how hard we try, in 2017. And we gotta let go of that. We gotta just be Michael and Jemele.”
I think the viewing world has splintered to the point that ESPN can’t really cater to everyone anymore and they’re struggling to find their niche. Sometimes they still try to play to everyone and other times they chase specific demographics. I think they lack clear leadership but that there also isn’t one correct answer for them. I think they lose no matter which way they go.
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A Q&A with Bill Hancock about the CFP.
In a nutshell:
* Scheduling intent doesn’t matter, just who you actually play.
* SOS is a tiebreaker among a cluster of teams, not a primary ranking factor
* He wouldn’t be surprised to a see a 2-loss team make it in eventually.
Hotline: Do you sense schools are starting to hear what the committee is preaching?
Hancock: “Overall, we will see enhanced schedules in the future. We’ve already seen it. The CFP can’t take all the credit; there are a lot of reasons. But we deserve part of the credit. Coaches like the opportunity for the athletes to play against the best, and the athletes like it, and the coaches like being on the national stage. The Labor Day (weekend) stage is a very important platform for the schools. Coaches recognize that. Coaches and athletic directors know that if they want to be in the playoff, they have to play somebody.”
Hotline: And there’s a risk if they don’t?
Hancock: “If you don’t play a great schedule and you have a really great team, you’re skating on thin ice. You’ve lost your margin for error. That’s a fact from now on.”
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Alan,
Please keep us informed as this potential hazing investigation continues. You’d think frats and others would know better by now but it just seems to keep on happening nationally.
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Brian – preliminary autopsy was performed today. The kid had an elevated BAC. The fraternity was thrown off campus. LSU has suspended all Greek activity pending their investigation.
I can’t recall the Phi Delts ever being in any real trouble. It’s always been a fairly small fraternity made up primarily of out of state kids without family connections to LSU. The kid was from Georgia.
This is shocking in that LSU has really been cracking down on the fraternities for the last twenty years when the last alcohol related death occurred. Over the last twenty years, many of the biggest fraternities with influential alums have been booted off campus.
I’ll post some links to news articles over the weekend.
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I think colleges are going to be forced to really crack down on alcohol. With the rate of sexual assaults being so high and alcohol playing a part in many of them, I think all student organizations will be forced to stage only dry events going forward. I also believe local and campus police will be pushed to really enforce alcohol laws like public drunkenness and underage drinking. Maybe when schools start kicking out students for drinking people will start to take binge drinking seriously.
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Binge drinking was less of a problem when the legal age was 18 or 19 in the mid 80’s. Forcing draft-able adults to consume alcohol illegally at house parties is a recipe for disaster.
I’ve always believed the drinking age should be 18 or 19 but I also live in Wisconsin where alcohol consumption is a big part of the culture. Wisconsin was one the last states to raise the age to 21 as the feds unconstitutionally threatened to withhold highway money.
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I think they’re unlikely to go back on the drinking age. I know prohibiting a behavior drives it underground and makes it more severe for those who do indulge, but science has shown that brains are still developing at that age (especially the decision making parts) and adding alcohol to the mix ends poorly. Young drivers already are dangerous and DUI didn’t used to be a serious issue. I don’t think anybody wants to think about a high school senior driving after even one beer to lower his inhibitions even further.
If more parents slowly introduced their kids to watered wine/beer/etc as they grew up as they do in Europe and elsewhere, people wouldn’t be so excited about drinking in college. I also question the premise that binge drinking didn’t used to be a problem.
https://report.nih.gov/NIHfactsheets/ViewFactSheet.aspx?csid=21
In fact, during the late 1960s and early 1970s, many States lowered the legal drinking age from 21 to 18.
…
Following this change, the number of alcohol-related traffic fatalities among young people increased. In response to these acute consequences, beginning in the early 1980s individual States increased the drinking age to 21.
…
By 1988, all States had adopted age 21 as the minimum legal drinking age. Alcohol-related traffic deaths among young drivers subsequently declined. The prevalence of underage alcohol use, daily alcohol use, and binge drinking also declined since 1982.
…
Underage drinking is a leading contributor to death from injuries, which are the main cause of death for people under age 21. Each year, approximately 5,000 persons under the age of 21 die from causes related to underage drinking. These deaths include about 1,600 homicides and 300 suicides.
Alcohol also plays a significant role in risky sexual behavior and increases the risk of physical and sexual assault. Among college students under age 21, 50,000 experience alcohol-related date rape, and 43,000 are injured by another student who has been drinking.
In addition, studies with animals and alcohol dependent adolescents show that alcohol has the potential to impact adolescent brain development. Given recent research which shows that the human brain continues to develop throughout adolescence, we need to better understand the short- and long-term effects of alcohol on the developing brain.
Underage drinking is also associated with future alcohol dependence. Analyses of data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions show that people who begin drinking before age 15 are four times more likely to develop alcohol dependence during their lifetime than those who began drinking at age 21 or later. This has even been shown for identical twins who have the same genetics but begin drinking at different ages.
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Here’s an update. Phi Delt national office pulls charter and supports prosecution.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/article_5de7ac7a-9c9a-11e7-9945-47f35254a21a.html
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I’d really like to hear from some of their recent alumni brothers. How long has this sort of thing been building up in their house and why didn’t any of them stand up and stop it?
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Brian – here’s a letter LSU parents just received from LSU President F. King Alexander.
Dear LSU Parents,
As our community continues to process the tragic loss of Maxwell Gruver, LSU will hold a week of reflection and remembrance. The LSU community is asked to remember Maxwell and his family this week as they, and we, continue to grieve his untimely passing.
I understand the worry you feel when your children go away to college, whether it’s across town or across the country. All three of my children are students, ranging as far away as Wisconsin and as close as LSU, and I think about them all constantly.
The loss of a student under any circumstances is tragic, but to lose a student to alleged hazing is beyond comprehension. As a father, I am heartbroken. As a university president, I am outraged.
We take no chances with the safety of our students, and that is why we have suspended all Greek activities on campus until the investigation of the circumstances involved in the death of Maxwell Gruver are determined. It is my obligation as university president and our collective obligation as a community to leave no stone unturned in making sure the culture surrounding our Greek organizations is healthy and beneficial.
I believe the vast majority of LSU Greek organizations contribute positively to the campus. They provide students with the opportunity to make lifelong friends and give back to the community. But these hazing allegations must be taken extremely seriously, and the culture surrounding our fraternities and sororities will be under great scrutiny.
Tonight at 6 p.m., there is a memorial service and vigil taking place at Christ the King Catholic Church. This week is also National Hazing Prevention week, and LSU is taking part with planned Safety Month activities. For more information on LSU’s Stay Safe initiative, visit http://www.lsu.edu/staysafe.php.
Please hold the Gruver family in your thoughts and prayers, and remember Max Gruver’s life.
Sincerely,
F. King Alexander
LSU President
**** For those who are looking for group, individual and crisis counseling, LSU Mental Health offers these services in a safe and secure environment. Appointments can be made by calling 225-578-8774, and offices are located in the second floor of the Student Health Center. For those who feel they are in a mental state requiring immediate support, The Phone, a 24/7 helpline, is available at 225-924-3900.
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The University of Missouri-Kansas City is evaluating its athletic future. Will the Kangaroos remain in the WAC, move to another Division I conference, or de-escalate to Div II or III?
http://info.umkc.edu/unews/athletics-task-force-prepares-to-issue-report/
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A sign of how much of an afterthought UMKC is here in Kansas City is that I haven’t heard about this until now. They have been D-I for about 30 years and their highlight was a regular season hoops win over a horrible Mizzou team a few years ago. I think they would have loved to take Wichita State’s spot in the Valley, but that was a long shot.
IMO, they should strongly consider dropping down to DII and joining the MIAA. The WAC has great name recognition, but the travel has to be brutal. If they drop down, all their travel could be by bus. Maybe they save enough and they can start a football program to soften the ego blow of dropping a level? I’m not sure how the finances would work, but the MIAA is a good football conference with perennial power NW Missouri State and the DII championship game being held in KCK.
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Saw a post where someone said they would be the 5th largest school in Division II. That just isn’t a fit for them. Also, there aren’t many Division III schools nearby, which are heavily concentrated in the east and California. There aren’t a lot of alternatives for good size state schools west of the Mississippi.
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Terp volleyball is no longer unbeaten, but is off to its best start in 12 years (when it was in the far weaker ACC). Maryland beat Southern Cal and Oklahoma before falling to Washington.
https://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps/2017/9/15/16314580/maryland-challenge-friday-oklahoma-washington-final-score-stats-recap
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bullet,
That was a really tough loss last night for UT. It’s hard to believe that’s the same team that couldn’t stop UMD. I thought Herman should’ve gone for 2 in OT, but that’s a minor critique.
TN has to feel even worse giving up a last second TD of over 60 yards by letting the WR get behind the DB. If UGA doesn’t cruise through the East this year, then they never will.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/09/15/jerry-sanduskys-son-pleads-guilty-sex-abuse-charges/672748001/
Sadly, like father like son.
Jeffrey Sandusky, the 41-year-old son of former Penn State assistant coach and convicted sex-abuser Jerry Sandusky, has pleaded guilty to 14 counts of sex abuse, according to multiple reports.
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Sporting News @sportingnews
·
25,381 Chargers attendance
+
56,612 Rams attendance
=
81,993 Combined from NFL L.A. teams.
USC vs. Texas in L.A. on Saturday? 84,714.
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The SEC released the 2018 football schedule today.
http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&ATCLID=211668264
Every team except Arkansas plays a P-5 team. The Hogs do travel to Colorado State on 9/8.
9/1 Bama v. Louisville in Orlando
Auburn v. Washington in Atlanta
LSU v. Miami in Arlington, TX
Ole Miss v. Texas Tech in Houston
Tennessee v. West Virginia in Charlotte
9/8 Miss State at K-State
Clemson at Texas A&M
9/15 Mizzou at Purdue
Candy at Notre Dame
11/24 Florida at Florida State
GA Tech at Georgia
Kentucky at Louisville
South Carolina at Clemson
Other notable games include LSU renewing its historical rivalry with the Rice Owls after a 22 year hiatus, and my son’s Citadel Bulldogs playing Alabama.
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Correction: On 9/15 Vandy, not Candy, travels to South Bend to play Notre Dame.
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Similar to the B1G’s problems with instate rivals only meeting once in conference as a possible result of spreading the marquee team out to the newbies: http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/the-pac-12-schedule-maker-did-arizona-a-favor-at-the-expense-of-the-league/
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Because the point I’m making here is that there’s never a good reason for a league to not have its best teams and biggest brands playing each other as often as possible on a year-to-year basis. In fact, every unbalanced league’s scheduling policy should be as follows: Put the perceived best teams against each other as often as possible because it theoretically creates the maximum amount of interesting games.
Hear, hear! The B10 does this for football with the parity-based scheduling but somehow can’t figure it our for hoops. I know basketball programs rise and fall with coaches more than football programs do, but some tiers are pretty obvious. At least lock rivalries among the best programs. It’s not rocket science.
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Then include Maryland in the first tier, as it’s won an NCAA title more recently than any other B1G member.
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Yes, I’d include UMD as a top tier MBB program in the B10. I don’t know who I’d lock them with, though. They don’t really have a rival
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Terp fans are used to that. (No one in the B1G has yet to become the obsession Duke was to Maryland in the later few decades of its ACC membership.)
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Some rivalries seem obvious. I’d probably go with these for locked pairs:
In state: IN/PU, MI/MSU, IL/NW
Rivalry/peers: WI/MN, NE/IA, PSU/RU
Other: UMD/OSU
18 games = 1 locked H/A, 4 rotating H/A, 4 H, 4 A
For the parity-based scheduling I’d try to pair the top brands in the rotating home and homes (and pair the lesser programs).
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Oklahoma’s David Boren to retire?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20768096/university-oklahoma-president-david-boren-retire
He’s leaving at the end of 2017-18.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20767556/college-football-bowl-subdivision-sees-huge-spike-targeting-penalty-enforcement-far
Targeting calls are way up this year.
Through 3 weeks last year: 44 calls, 9 of which were overturned = 35 enforced
Through 3 weeks this year: 75 calls, 20 of which were overturned = 55 enforced
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The WSJ valuations of CFB programs, as reported today by the Baton Rouge Business Report:
“The LSU Tigers are ranked as the nation’s fifth most-valuable college football team in a new analysis by a professor at Indiana University-Purdue University Columbus, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The Tigers are worth roughly $911 million, according to the analysis, which broke down each college program’s 2016 revenues and expenses, making cash-flow adjustments, risk assessments and growth projections.
At approximately $1.5 billion, Ohio State is ranked as most-valuable team, followed by Texas ($1.2 billion), Oklahoma ($1 billion) and Alabama ($930 million).
Across the sport, the value of Football Bowl Subdivision teams spiked by 26% over the 2015 numbers, the product of cash flows that rose 24% and revenues that grew by 19%. The SEC has the highest average team value, at $523 million, followed by the Big Ten ($416 million) and Big 12 ($376 million).
Brewer notes that while the NFL has faced ratings declines in the last year, the same hasn’t been true in the college game. “It’s been tremendous,” he says. “So far this season, we can confirm that college football is still strongly attended and strongly viewed.”
Does anyone subscribe to the WSJ? It would be great for somebody to give us the top 20 and a litlle more national perspective.
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I’m not a subscriber, but this is what I’ve found online:
https://www.landof10.com/big-ten/wall-street-journal-ohio-state-valuable-teams
1. OSU – $1.51B
6. MI – $893M
Here are the rest of the Big Ten teams:
No. 12: Penn State ($549,497,000)
No. 14: Nebraska ($507, 679,000)
No. 16: Iowa ($483,564,000)
No. 18: Wisconsin ($439,379,000)
No. 22: Michigan State ($336,794,000)
No. 32: Minnesota ($260,264,000)
No. 44: Indiana ($178,168,000)
No. 46: Northwestern ($163,315,000)
No. 49: Maryland ($147,608,000)
No. 53: Illinois ($143,318,000)
No. 55: Purdue ($135,021,000)
No. 65: Rutgers ($72,441,000)
https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/wall-street-journal-reveals-value-sec-football-program/
Here’s how the SEC teams are ranked on the list:
4. Alabama – $930 million
5. LSU – $911 million
8. Georgia – $822 million
9. Tennessee – $746 million
10. Auburn – $724 million
11. Florida – $682 million
13. Texas A&M – $523 million
15. South Carolina – $485 million
17. Arkansas – $456 million
23. Ole Miss – $331 million
28. Kentucky – $288 million
35. Mississippi State – $231 million
56. Missouri – $126 million
64. Vanderbilt – $74 million
http://247sports.com/college/west-virginia/Board/103745/Contents/Wall-Street-Journal-How-much-is-WVU-worth-107746014
FALL 2017 RANK
PROGRAM
VALUE
1 Ohio State 1,510,482,000
2 Texas 1,243,124,000
3 Oklahoma 1,001,967,000
4 Alabama 930,001,000
5 LSU 910,927,000
6 Michigan 892,951,000
7 Notre Dame 856,938,000
8 Georgia 822,310,000
9 Tennessee 745,640,000
10 Auburn 724,191,000
11 Florida 682,031,000
12 Penn State 549,497,000
13 Texas A & M 522,863,000
14 Nebraska 507,679,000
15 South Carolina 484,757,000
16 Iowa 483,564,000
17 Arkansas 456,153,000
18 Wisconsin 439,379,000
19 Washington 434,313,000
20 Florida State 385,339,000
21 Oregon 368,529,000
22 Michigan State 336,794,000
23 Mississippi 330,503,000
24 Clemson 328,411,000
25 Southern California 324,195,000
26 Arizona State 315,412,000
27 UCLA 314,436,000
28 Kentucky 287,589,000
29 Oklahoma State 285,293,000
30 Kansas State 277,203,000
31 Virginia Tech 269,883,000
32 Minnesota 260,264,000
33 Miami of Florida 254,502,000
34 Texas Tech 246,871,000
35 Miss State 230,655,000
36 Stanford 225,479,000
37 California Berkeley 220,017,000
38 Georgia Tech 212,068,000
39 Utah 206,365,000
40 Colorado 203,533,000
41 Iowa State 196,973,000
42 North Carolina State 191,813,000
43 Kansas 183,031,000
44 Indiana 178,168,000
45 Virginia 168,534,000
46 Northwestern 163,315,000
47 Louisville 160,899,000
48 Texas Christian 153,631,000
49 Maryland 147,608,000
50 North Carolina 147,179,000
51 Arizona 146,153,000
52 Oregon State 144,713,000
53 Illinois 143,318,000
54 Wash State 142,052,000
55 Purdue 135,021,000
56 Missouri 126,219,000
57 Syracuse 120,903,000
58 Pittsburgh 114,468,000
59 Baylor 103,591,000
60 BYU 98,924,000
61 Central Florida 82,302,000
62 Boston College 82,241,000
63 Boise State 77,981,000
64 Vanderbilt 73,991,000
65 Rutgers 72,441,000
66 West Virginia 72,049,000
67 South Florida 70,189,000
68 Duke 64,195,000
69 Connecticut 59,776,000
70 Wake Forest 52,940,000
71 Houston 41,386,000
72 Temple 40,669,000
73 Army 38,048,000
74 Southern Methodist 36,047,000
75 Wyoming 34,554,000
76 Memphis 32,290,000
77 Cincinnati 30,230,000
78 Colorado State 30,221,000
79 Fresno State 29,325,000
80 North Texas 29,266,000
81 East Carolina 28,408,000
82 San Diego State 27,716,000
83 Hawaii 26,284,000
84 Florida International 24,145,000
85 Ohio 22,302,000
86 UNLV 21,772,000
87 Marshall 21,483,000
88 Rice 21,453,000
89 San Jose State 21,370,000
90 Akron 20,235,000
91 UTEP 19,344,000
92 Middle Tennessee 19,322,000
93 Toledo 18,736,000
94 Utah State 18,305,000
95 Nevada 17,478,000
96 Western Michigan 17,134,000
97 Western Kentucky 16,532,000
98 Northern Illinois 16,141,000
99 Buffalo 16,090,000
100 New Mexico 15,380,000
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The top 59 teams belong in P5 conferences or are Notre Dame. The top teams outside the P5:
60. Brigham Young
61. Central Florida
63. Boise State
67. South Florida
69. Connecticut
The lowest P5 members:
62. Boston College
64. Vanderbilt
65. Rutgers
66. West Virginia
68. Duke
70. Wake Forest
Four of those six are private colleges, the other two either relatively new to power-conference football (Rutgers) or in a state with poor demographics (West Virginia).
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Nebraska AD Eichorst fired due to poor on field performance of Huskers.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/20777039/nebraska-cornhuskers-fire-ad-shawn-eichorst
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I think NE is walking a very fine line here. The odds of them returning to the glory days under Osborne are slim. The have a very limited recruiting base and share a conference with many other good teams. At some point they may have to accept that being 9-3 is a good year instead of a fireable offense. I thought Riley was a questionable hire at the time, but Eichorst was right to fire Pelini for his behavior.
Are they letting past glory interfere with an honest evaluation of what they are and should be now? Can any coach achieve what they expect?
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At some point they may have to accept that being 9-3 is a good year instead of a fireable offense.
I don’t think there are many Nebraska fans that think that. Most fans what a competitive team that looks prepared, doesn’t consistently get blown out on big stages, and is competitive for conference titles (i.e. make the CCG) more years than not.
The odds of them returning to the glory days under Osborne are slim.
I think everyone knows that. That doesn’t mean they have to accept mediocrity.
The have a very limited recruiting base and share a conference with many other good teams.
They should have an advantage over all the teams in their division. The money and desire is there. Outside being located in a recruiting hotbed, everything is in place for success.
FWIW, IMO this is the administration and boosters making sure the next hires (both basketball and football have under performed) are not made by Eichorst.
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Mike,
[9-3 is a fireable offense]
“I don’t think there are many Nebraska fans that think that.”
It got Solich fired (58-19 over 6 years = 9.7 – 3.2). That plus his behavior got Pelini fired. Maybe things have changed, but I haven’t seen any clear evidence of it. Certainly the comments online in various places don’t show it but then those are always the most extreme fans.
“Most fans what a competitive team that looks prepared, doesn’t consistently get blown out on big stages, and is competitive for conference titles (i.e. make the CCG) more years than not.”
I understand the first part and the second part. Part three is where it starts to push things.
Records of B10 division champs:
2011 – 10-2, 10-2
2012 – 10-2, 12-0*
2013 – 12-0, 11-1
2014 – 11-1, 10-2
2015 – 12-0, 11-1
2016 – 10-2, 10-2
Making the CCG more years than not means winning 10+ games in the regular season more games than not. Going 9-3 wouldn’t be good enough.
I understand wanting to be in the hunt every season, but asking to win your division most of the time is a lot. WI has done it lately, but it seems more likely that nobody should win the West a majority of the time. NE, WI and others should all win some.
Basically, you’re saying NE should be what WI is. That’s a great goal, but WI has been a top 10 program the past few years and I don’t think NE should assume they’ll be at that level all the time anymore.
Total wins over the past 6 years:
4. OSU – 67
10. WI – 60
13. MSU – 57
23. NE – 52
“That doesn’t mean they have to accept mediocrity.”
Is 9-3 mediocre? That’s all I’m asking NE to accept. And being in the top 25 in the nation doesn’t seem all that bad. USC is #18. ND and MI are tied at #26. PSU is #33. UF is #36. UT is #57.
“They should have an advantage over all the teams in their division. The money and desire is there. Outside being located in a recruiting hotbed, everything is in place for success.”
Should they have an edge? The lack of recruiting is huge. The rest of the West has more kids to pull from which counters NE’s history to some extent. To recruits, WI is the power program in the West based on recent history. All the schools have money now. I’m not sure NE has much of an edge over WI anymore.
“FWIW, IMO this is the administration and boosters making sure the next hires (both basketball and football have under performed) are not made by Eichorst.”
And that’s a legitimate reason to fire him. I’m not saying NE was wrong to do so. I just hope they’re careful not to fall into the trap of chasing past glory so hard that they miss out on success.
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Basically, you’re saying NE should be what WI is. That’s a great goal, but WI has been a top 10 program the past few years and I don’t think NE should assume they’ll be at that level all the time anymore.
There is no reason Nebraska can’t be what Wisconsin is. Every thing needed to be that (and more) is in place. If Wisconsin had some of the advantages Nebraska has they wouldn’t see their coaches leave for the “greener” pastures of Arkansas and Oregon St.
It got Solich fired (58-19 over 6 years = 9.7 – 3.2). That plus his behavior got Pelini fired.
[Do Nebraska fans think 9-3 is fireable] Nebraska fans didn’t fire Solich and there are still divisions in the fan base about it. Wins and losses didn’t get Bo fired either but kept him around longer than he wanted to be. Osborne spent many years as 9 win coach. Being relevant isn’t too much to expect.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41351251
BYU is now selling caffeinated sodas based on a change in policy the church made in 2012. BYU was made caffeine-free in the 50s so this is a major change.
But following Brigham Young’s policy switch, sales of fizzy drinks have already begun on the Utah campus.
“Consumer preferences have clearly changed,” the university’s dining services page explained in an online Q&A announcing the change.
Non-caffeinated sodas will continue to be offered, but not highly caffeinated “energy drinks”.
In 2012 the Mormon church clarified its policy on caffeine, paving the way for Thursday’s decision.
The Church of the Latter Day Saints, as it is formally known, determined that a reference to “hot drinks” in religious texts only applied to tea and coffee, not all caffeine products.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/20777039/nebraska-cornhuskers-fire-ad-shawn-eichorst
NE has fired their AD after the loss to NIU last weekend. You have to think Riley is likely to be shown the door if the team doesn’t win the West or come darn close.
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In a follow-up piece, Wilner got TV numbers for P12N content. It’s not from Nielsen but they aren’t the only ratings service. As a reminder, the P12N (and BTN and others) don’t release their TV numbers as a matter of policy.
To be clear about what I have and what is reported below:
*** The viewership data comes from a reputable ratings service. (Nielsen isn’t the only one.)
*** The ratings are from the Pac-12 Network — the national feed — and specific to one of the conference’s major markets. The numbers cover four consecutive Saturdays last fall.
*** Yes, it is a small sample size given that the Pac-12 Networks show hundreds of Olympic sports events annually.
But it’s something, and to this point we have nothing. The conference hasn’t even shared the ratings with the schools, even though they own the networks (you’d be forgiven for thinking it was the other way around).
*** I am not going to name the market or the Olympic sports events that were rated.
The schools, the teams, the coaches and athletes — they are not the issue, and I’m not interested in embarrassing anyone.
…
During the Saturdays covered in the ratings window obtained by the Hotline, there were four broadcasts of Olympic sports events on the Pac-12 Networks’ national feed.
Ratings are measured in 15-minute segments, so a four-hour football game would have 16 segments.
The four Olympic sports events in question had a total of 22 measured segments. Of those, 21 registered a zero.
…
That doesn’t mean that zero people, literally, are watching. But it means that so few people are watching, it doesn’t register with the rating service.
How many, specifically?
Based on the households involved in this particular metro market and the way shares are calculated, no more than a few hundred people could possibly have been watching any of the 21 segments that generated a zero share.
What about the single 15-minute segment that registered? It had a 0.5 share, and I can’t explain the spike.
…
Several football broadcasts were included in the ratings, and they did quite well:
One game, which featured an in-market team, registered an 11 share, which means 11 percent of the TVs in use at the time were watching that game. A game for an out-of-market team earned a 3 share.
I ran those numbers past two industry sources; both thought they were solid.
Moreover, I obtained ratings for ESPN for the same timeframe. They showed three times the viewership for a Pac-12 football game featuring an in-market team than the Pac-12 Networks received.
…
One of the industry sources I turned to for context made three points after seeing the data:
1. “An advertising model associated with Olympic sports is not viable.The ratings are non-existent. No one is watching.”
2. “When a football team is on (the Pac-12 Networks) in its home market, it gets a very impressive share. The Pac-12 absolutely has leverage over the cable provider in those instances. The problem is the best games are on Fox and ESPN — and for good reason.”
3. “It was prudent of the conference to have the best (football) games on ESPN and Fox, because of greater reach. You could put them on the Pac-12 Networks, and that (leverage) might help you add distribution. But your brand will suffer because it won’t be as visible.”
One more piece of context on those Olympic sports ratings:
Plenty of television shows register a zero. Even some men’s basketball games register a zero when the home market isn’t involved.
…
Had the Olympic sports not been at the center of the business model, the conference could have created a traditional structure, like the Big Ten Network, with a single national network that featured football and men’s basketball, with Olympic sports scattered throughout.
There is zero doubt — and I’ve asked several analysts about this issue — that the single national network would have generated greater distribution and revenue.
Also: It would have been less expensive.
In addition to the production costs associated with all the regional feeds, there are costs to the campuses attached to the Olympic sports broadcasts.
Teams are asked to play at less-than-ideal times/days in order to fit with the broadcast schedule, and that hurts attendance.
There can be added travel costs if a team has to spend an extra day on the road (example: a Sunday game that would otherwise be played on a Saturday) just to suit the programming needs.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20784892/rutgers-scarlet-knights-get-probation-failing-monitor-football-program-former-coach-kyle-flood
RU got 2 years of probation for their NCAA violations in football.
Rutgers’ probation begins immediately and will expire on Sept. 21, 2019. The NCAA also issued a $5,000 fine to the university and a one-year show-cause order for Flood and the former assistant coach who committed recruiting violations.
…
The penalties issued Friday added relatively little to the self-imposed sanctions that the school put on its future recruiting efforts this past spring after reviewing its own shortcomings. In a response to the NCAA allegations, Rutgers issued a report in April that said “it is clear that violations occurred” and the school bears responsibility for them.
It’s always refreshing to see a school admit responsibility and punish itself appropriately. I wish more schools did that.
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Former Baylor president David Garland blamed the victims.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20786400/former-baylor-president-david-garland-says-some-women-make-victims
A court filing this week reveals that the former interim president of Baylor University referred to some women who said they had been sexually assaulted as willing victims, amid lingering allegations that the nation’s largest Baptist school repeatedly mishandled or stifled allegations of sexual and physical abuse.
…
Garland also said in the email that he had heard a radio interview with an author who chronicled her alcoholism at college, the Waco Tribune-Herald reports. He wrote in the email that the interview “added another perspective for me of what is going on in the heads of some women who may seem willingly to make themselves victims.”
He then cited verses in the New Testament referring to God’s wrath on those who commit sexual sin.
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http://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-huskies/hc-jacobs-column-auriemma-state-budget-0922-20170921-column.html
CT is facing major budget issues and the legislature passed a budget that would cut $300M from UConn’s budget. The governor says he’ll veto it, but you have to wonder what will get passed.
This much we know. The General Assembly passed a budget with massive cuts to the flagship university. Gov. Dannel P. Malloy has vowed to veto it. UConn President Susan Herbst has mentioned schools of nursing, engineering, UConn Health, a number of sports, as possibly facing elimination.
…
There were times in a half-hour discussion that Auriemma sounded like a Democrat and other times like a Republican. His pointed message was when it comes to education it would be abhorrent for Connecticut to be a tool of partisan politics.
“There is a lot of stuff out there isn’t subject to debate,” Auriemma said. “You want real? In 1985, when I came here, you couldn’t get the best kid in Connecticut to UConn on a regular basis or maybe even at all.”
Auriemma wanted to be clear he was talking about the general student population.
“Whether athletics survive, whether women’s basketball is around in 10 years from now, that’s not my concern on this point,” Auriemma said. “Obviously, I’m the coach and want to recruit the best players and want to build on what we’ve already done. But this is way bigger than football or basketball. When I came here this was the kind of school where people didn’t have a choice that was better than this one.
“They couldn’t afford it, couldn’t leave home, academic reasons, whatever the case. Yet at the same time all I heard was our state had one of the best education systems, grade schools, middle school, high schools. Yet our public state university wasn’t remotely getting close to their share of those graduates.”
…
He turned to the U.S. News & World Report rankings of public universities. In 2000, UConn was 38th. UConn is 18th now, ahead of Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers, one spot behind Ohio State and Georgia, and tied with Washington and Purdue.
“No disrespect, but we used to try to be better than Rhode Island and Maine,” Auriemma said. “Now we’re the equal of those other schools? Are you kidding me?
“Anybody who thinks athletics didn’t have anything to do with it is just flat-out crazy. I understand there are professors on campus that wonder why there is any need for athletics. Why do we need the humanities? Or philosophy? We provide a service to students just like the English and engineering departments. How many of us make money for the university? If you read the stats, none of us, unless maybe you count the labs that bring in the federal grants.”
So the question, Auriemma said, becomes return on investment.
…
“I’ll tell you what. I’ll work for free next year. I’ll give up what the state pays me, what the taxpayers are paying me, but guess what? I pay my taxes and I don’t care how much money it costs for me to have good schools where I live in Manchester. My [adult] kids don’t go to school there. I can afford it. I want to be proud of our town’s education system. Why is it that older people turn their back on education when somebody paid for their kids when they were in school? We’ve lost sight of what we have to do for other people.”
This could have major impacts on UConn’s push to ever join the P5 or the AAU.
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C’mon FtT: “Ridiculous hypocrisy from the NCAA. Conferences and schools should be able to make as much money as they want… and so should the athletes.“
He can build a new Coca Cola bottling company as long as he doesn’t use himself as a collegiate athlete as a marketing tool.
Conf and schools are the organizing and governing (through NCAA) institutions, not the competitors the rules are promulgated to govern.
Variation on Bloom v NCAA.
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Not to mention that when he is making money off football video, he doesn’t own the rights to game video or have the rights to intellectual property in the background like school logos and trademarks.
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Tough to see UMD lose yet another QB to a knee injury. Will they be down to a LB again soon?
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Who knows? Now Durkin understands what Edsall went through (though he’s recruiting better than his predecessor ever did).
Meanwhile in the Terps’ old neighborhood, Wake and Duke are drawing closer to bowl eligibility, NCSU shocked Florida State, and UNC looks forward to hoops while awaiting the NCAA’s ruling.
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A lot of near misses meant very little change in the polls because so many team struggled. UGA and TCU made the top 10. UF and LSU stayed in the top 25 despite tough games against UK and Syracuse.
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Allegations of fraud and corruption in college basketball; US DOJ press conference noon EDT today.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/press-conference-advisory-2
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More from the Mercury-News, focusing on the Pac-12 angle; one is the lead recruiter at Arizona, the other an assistant at Southern Cal. (Other assistant coaches implicated are from Auburn and Okie State.)
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Que Captain Renault: “im shocked, shocked…”
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Well, I am shocked the DOJ is stepping in. That doesn’t happen very often. I wonder if the NCAA will punish them, afterwards or if what they did even violates NCAA rules. For once subpoena power will be in play to get evidence and witnesses.
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Sounds like a good topic for a new FtT post. This money is big because the shoe companies (at least Adidas) are involved. Louisville and Miami are also named. Kansas and Indiana haven’t to my knowledge, but both are Adidas schools.
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UCLA formerly was Adidas, but has switched to Under Armour.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/inside-college-football-internet-giants-could-kick-start-next-round-of-realignment/
Internet giants could kick start the next round of realignment (CBSSports.com)
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I have a hard time believing they will have a major impact that soon. I’d look for them to have an impact on the G5 first and that’s just barely starting. They could easily replace the small deals ESPN and company have with the SB and MAC over the next 5-10 years.
It’s a whole different ball game to outbid ESPN and Fox for the P5. I don’t think the business model makes sense for them. The demographics of CFB fans are older than they’d prefer. Maybe they become a third partner or something to get their toes wet. I think a full jump into carrying CFB is more than a decade away for them, but I’m no expert at predicting the future.
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http://variety.com/2017/digital/news/amazon-nfl-thursday-night-football-sports-rights-1202570293/
Amazon’s $50M NFL deal starts this week. They will stream Thursday night football games.
But the Amazonian gridiron foray could mark just the earliest days of deep-pocketed technology giants pursuing the TV rights to league deals that for years have served as the glue that holds together the TV bundle. “Imagine the scenario when Amazon is joined by Google, Facebook and Apple at the table in direct opposition to the networks that have historically battled for the prize,” says Mike Bloxham, senior VP at research firm Magid.
…
However, compared with its tech brethren, Amazon stands apart.
That’s because its key objective with the NFL deal — along with the rest of the Prime Video service, for which it’s spending an estimated $4.5 billion this year on content — is to drive new subscribers to the Amazon Prime membership program. It was widely reported that Amazon is paying $50 million for the “TNF” rights, which would be five times what Twitter paid last year. Sources familiar with the pact say the outlay is actually much lower; in any case, it’s little more than a rounding error for Amazon, which generated $136 billion in sales in 2016.
Even at the high end, consider that 500,000 new Prime subscribers, paying $99 annually, would offset the reported $50 million price tag for NFL rights. And that doesn’t even include sales of advertising for the games or purchases by Prime members, who spend more on products and services than non-Prime users.
“They can monetize [the NFL rights] through additional transactions,” says Wall Street analyst Michael Nathanson. “That’s unlike anything that Facebook or YouTube could do.”
…
And it only makes sense that, in its football pitch to advertisers, Big Data is part of the Amazon playbook. The company has access to a portion of the ad inventory in the broadcasts of the game provided by “TNF” TV rights holders CBS and NBC. For the advertisers in the Amazon stream — which in the U.S. include Showtime, Pepsi, Under Armour and Gillette — the e-tailer will report the actual purchase data of Prime users who saw their ads and then bought the sponsor’s goods or services.
That, the company says, represents the first time anyone’s brought together e-commerce metrics and TV. Amazon also is planning to slot in its own ads during the games.
That explains how Amazon could make money from sports. How does it make sense for Facebook, Google, etc? I assume they would also try to use big data to personalize ads but they don’t have membership service yet to add revenue. Netflix has said they don’t want live sports.
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Amazon really needs this. I’m surprised the bid was so low.
I have Amazon Prime and a TV that can connect to its streaming service. The offerings on that service are lame in the extreme, and I almost never watch it. Occasionally I will tune in to a new offering just to see if it is worth my time. It almost never is.
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It’s low, but they only have streaming rights to games that are also televised. They paid 5 times more than Twitter did last year for the same thing (if the $50M number is correct).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20825774/nebraska-cornhuskers-hire-dave-rimington-interim-athletic-director
NE has hired Dave Rimington (aka greatest center ever) to be their interim AD.
His appointment is scheduled for up to 60 days, according to a university-issued news release.
…
Rimington said he’s not a candidate for the permanent AD job. “I’m not here to fire anybody,” he said. “I just want to calm things down.”
…
Green said Tuesday that the search is “active” for a full-time athletic director and that a search firm has been retained. Additionally, the chancellor will construct a search committee of university leadership, student-athletes and athletic-department staff.
He said he wants Nebraska to be aggressive with its resources and time.
“We expect this to be a short search,” Green said.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/suspended-florida-players-now-face-multiple-third-degree-felony-fraud-charges/
The 9 UF players suspended all season so far have now all been charged with at least 2 felonies each. One is facing 30 felony counts. They’ll probably plea to lesser charges and end up with a slap on the wrist. How long until UF punishes them beyond their current indefinite suspensions?
Nine Florida players have been suspended since the start of the season and are now facing third-degree felony charges related to an investigation into improper debit card charges and alleged fraudulent use of credit cards.
The players facing felony charges are running back Jordan Scarlett, wide receivers Antonio Callaway and Rick Wells, defensive linemen Jordan Smith, Keivonnis Davis and Richerd Desir-Jones, linebackers James Houston IV and Ventrell Miller, and offensive lineman Kadeem Telfort.
The nine players all faces at least two felony charges, one for fraud under $20,000 and one for impersonation. Smith faces three additional impersonation charges. Telfort faces a total of 30 felony charges, including the fraud charge, 13 impersonation charges, 12 charges for illegal credit card use and three charges of falsifying his identity.
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They’ll have to run the bleachers next week!
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Stay tune for the Mike Bianchi story detailing how this is all Urban Meyer’s fault.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/fox/foxsports-com-reportedly-lost-88-audience-pivoting-video.html
Foxsports.com has lost almost their entire audience since moving to a video-driven format.
In the wake of the “new and improved” FoxSports.com, the reviews were universally negative. Many sports fans suddenly discovered there was no point in visiting the website when mostly all of its offerings were outdated or irrelevant.
And true to expectation, that has shown up in the first substantially reported numbers about the traffic to FoxSports.com. SI’s Richard Deitsch reports that traffic dropped an astounding 88% since the “pivot to video.” Their traffic has gone from over 143 million in a monthly period to just under 17 million.
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Reading is a lot quicker than video. That is why I skip those sites. On top of that, they often have 30 second commercials to start.
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Unless there’s actual game footage, the videos are also usually incredibly boring.
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Bye bye Pitino (and Jurich, too!): http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/louisville-coach-rick-pitino-fired-amid-fbi-investigation-reports/amp/?utm_source=Chicago%20Sun-Times&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=1920188_pitino%20fired&ID=1920188_pitino%20fired&dm_i=2JCP,155MK,2HU451,3IU9Q,1
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Eventually the teflon had to wear off. Violations have followed him around like a puppy and yet he always successfully deflected it onto others. On top of the recent stripper scandal, this is just the straw that broke the camel’s back. UL is looking a repeat offender status and a bunch of major violations. The death penalty could even be in play for the MBB program.
It sounds like the this announcement by the feds is just the tip of the iceberg. A lot more players, coaches and schools may be implicated before this is over. Here’s hoping the B10 mostly comes out clean. Maybe it would explain some of the recruiting issues the B10 has faced.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/20841573/alabama-associate-ad-kobie-baker-resigns-amid-internal-review-linked-fbi-investigation
Alabama is involved now. Their associate AD in charge of all things MBB resigned as soon as the school started an internal investigation.
Alabama associate athletic director Kobie Baker, who previously worked for the NCAA, resigned Wednesday after the school questioned him about being linked to the ongoing FBI college basketball investigation that has resulted in 10 arrests.
…
“Following yesterday’s reports from New York regarding a Federal investigation of intercollegiate athletics, The University of Alabama Department of Athletics immediately initiated an internal review of our men’s basketball operations,” Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne said in a statement. “As a result, we have accepted the resignation effective today of Kobie Baker, a men’s basketball administrator. Our review has not identified any NCAA or SEC rules violations nor the involvement of any other coach or staff member. We have notified both of the governing bodies of the actions we have taken. As always, we will continue to be proactive in our compliance efforts.”
So why did he so suddenly retire if no rules were broken?
http://www.al.com/alabamabasketball/index.ssf/2017/09/alabama_basketball_staffer_res.html
Baker admitted during a meeting with Alabama officials on Wednesday to being “Staff Member 1” in the FBI complaint, according to a source.
According to the FBI complaint, Rashan Michel, who was arrested Tuesday, arranged a meeting with a confidential witness (CW-1) and someone referred to as “Staff Member 1” on or around May 3 during which CW-1 paid $5,000 to Staff Member 1 and $2,000 to Michel.
During that meeting, which CW-1 recorded, CW-1 asked Staff Member 1 if he had the ability to influence players at his school to retain CW-1’s services as an advisor, which he said he did.
“If access and relationships and leading to where you need to be, and you know, helping with that…yeah, I can absolutely do that,” he said in the complaint.
Then, on or around August 31, Michel set up a meeting at a restaurant in Atlanta with Staff Member 1, CW-1 and the father of a highly-ranked incoming freshman at Staff Member 1’s school.
The purpose of the meeting, which CW-1 recorded on audio and video, was for Staff Member 1 to introduce the father to CW-1 in an effort to begin influencing the father to push his son to hire CW-1 upon turning pro.
During that meeting, CW-1 gave Michel approximately $10,000 in cash to give to Staff Member 1.
AL doesn’t think that’s an NCAA violation? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
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Inquiring minds wonder if there is any chance that Alabama football (or other SEC football teams) could be involved in a similar scheme. Nah, never happened.
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If so, Bernie, they’ll find a way to sweep it under the bus. Hoops will take the rap, sort of UNC football in reverse.
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You do get a much bigger bang for the buck in basketball than in football because the teams are so much smaller. After all, back in 78/79 it was the Boston College basketball team, not its football team, that was involved in point shaving. Also, these are shoe companies who need the endorsements of very public players not the big uglies on the interior line.
Nonetheless, the fact that an Assoc. AD was involved at ‘Bama, not just some low level assistant MBB coach, suggests the problem might extend to the football team.
Where is our much beloved UNC in all this?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20852029/buyout-louisville-cardinals-coach-bobby-petrino-cut-half-athletic-director-tom-jurich-ousted
The NCAA scandal will touch on CFB at least a little. If Tom Jurich is fired by UL, Bobby Petrino’s buyout is automatically cut in half.
Underneath all the buyout terms in the contract, there is a paragraph that states: “Each of the amounts set forth shall be reduced by 50 percent if at the time payment is due, Tom Jurich is not the Athletic Director of the University.”
If Petrino were to leave before June 30, 2018, and Jurich is not the athletic director, his buyout would go from $8 million to $4 million. The buyout number decreases from there and bottoms out at $5 million for the final three years of the deal, which goes until 2023. That means Petrino would owe $2.5 million if he leaves near the end of the contract.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20858557/espn-survey-shows-americans-interested-divided-nfl-protests-national-anthem
A national survey about the NFL player protests. In a nutshell, the nation is split over them especially along racial lines (shocking, I know). Follow the link to see the results.
People were also split on whether the protests will affect their interest in the NFL. Among all respondents, 14 percent were more interested and 40 percent were less interested — with 43 percent saying the protests had no impact on their interest. Among avid NFL fans, 48 percent said their interest is not impacted, but 31 percent said they were less interested in the league because of the protests (19 percent said they were more interested).
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http://www.alexcityoutlook.com/2017/09/28/russell-to-cease-production-of-athletic-uniforms/
Russell Athletics is getting out of the uniform business. They used to be a major player in CFB but now have only GT among the P5 and GT is switching to Adidas next year. RA also was the exclusive provider for MLB in the 90s. Nike, Adidas and Under Armour have driven them out of the business.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-every-nfl-teams-fans-lean-politically/
538 looked at the political leaning of fans of the major sports as well as each NFL team. The NFL is the most bipartisan of all the sports (probably because it combines rural and urban fans and is nationwide).
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Some secretly unhappy folk at Pac-12 offices tonight after that thriller in Pullman. A 13-0 Southern Cal or Washington almost certainly would qualify for the CFB playoffs; a 13-0 Washington State lacks the “brand name” to make the top four.
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They still have UW. A good WSU helps UW later.
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Unless all other conf champs are 13-0 I’d hope WSU winning a Brand conference, beating UW and USC, and whoever the south CCG rep is would be good enough. If not I’m back to voicing my opinion that we just have a very expensive popularity contest, not a competition.
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Plenty of POed people in both Knoxville and Baton Rouge. And Troy’s now going to find it a lot harder to line up visits to SEC schools for that guaranteed $$$.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
The polls continue to be about what you’d expect.
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. OU
4. PSU
5/6. UW
6/5. UGA
7. MI
8/9. WI
9/10. OSU
10/8. TCU
I continue to think that UGA’s being given a little too much credit for not beating anyone of consequence. They may well be good, especially by the end of the year, but MsSU and TN are not good teams. UGA barely squeaked by #22/21 ND.
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MSU and TN have been over-rated, but UGA destroyed both of them, not merely beat them. Notre Dame was on the road (as was TN). Nobody in the top 10 has 3 games as tough as those 3 (although several have better single opponents).
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Georgia is going to dominate anybody they play who doesn’t have an outstanding secondary. Their freshman QB hasn’t paid for his mistakes yet. Florida may give him problems. Alabama will.
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Yes, they have a strong resume so far comparatively. I just don’t think you have to be a top 5 team to do what they’ve done. TN struggled to beat 0-6 UMass at home the week before. MsSU has been blown out 2 weeks in a row. MsSU was only ranked because they crushed LSU, but hindsight shows how empty that win was. ND had only a small home field advantage and didn’t play very well but still made it a 1 point game.
Let’s see how the games against UF and AU (the only decent SEC teams they play) go.
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Apparently there have been calls for the ACC to part ways with Louisville. A Lexington Herald-Leader columnist says if the Cardinals go, take the Tar Heels with them (like that’s going to happen): http://amp.kentucky.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mark-story/article176646751.html
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After every big scandal there are calls to boot the offending school from the conference – Baylor, PSU, SMU, etc. It never happens.
And it’s not surprising to see those calls coming from Hartford CT (UL beat out UConn for the spot) or Lexington KY (home of UL’s rival). It is a good point that UNC’s scandal is much worse fundamentally to a group of universities than cheating in sports will ever be. We all know UNC isn’t going anywhere, though, and neither is UL. Slaps on the wrist all around.
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http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100317aaa.html
In a major change of scheduling policy, OSU and UC have announced a home and home in MBB for 2018-19 and 2019-20.
The Ohio State men’s basketball program will start both the 2018-19 and 2019-20 men’s basketball seasons against the University of Cincinnati, the programs announced Tuesday. The Bearcats will open a newly-renovated Fifth Third Arena against the Buckeyes in 2018 with Ohio State playing host in Columbus in 2019. Although dates for the games have not been determined, the game will take place on the first allowable date of competition in each of the next two years.
…
Ohio State leads the all-time series with the Bearcats 6-4. The teams have not met during regular-season play since 1921, which was the home opener for the Buckeyes and the only previous time the teams opened the season against one another. The Bearcats won that game 33-17. Ohio State played host to Cincinnati in five of the first six meetings, going 3-2 in those games. Ohio State has not played the Bearcats in Cincinnati since Jan. 3, 1920, a 35-13 win for the Buckeyes.
This will divide the OSU fan base. A lot of the older fans will have no interest while the younger fans have always wanted this. I think it’s a mistake, but I’m not angry about it. I don’t care enough about MBB to be that upset. I just don’t see any upside for OSU.
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Shades of the “Big O” and Fred Taylor. Some very old fans will indeed have an interest.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
538’s MLB playoff predictions (so we can mock them later):
Wildcards:
NYY over MIN – 68%
ARI over COL – 59%
AL Champs:
CLE – 43%
HOU – 27%
BOS – 16%
NYY – 11%
MIN – 3%
NL Champs:
LAD – 37%
WAS – 25%
CHC – 24%
ARI – 9%
COL – 4%
WS Champs:
CLE – 27%
LAD – 18%
HOU – 15%
WAS – 11%
CHC – 10%
The rest are 7% or lower
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Well, they’re 2 for 2 so far.
Updated odds after the WC games:
ALDS:
CLE over NYY – 67%
HOU over BOS – 60%
NLDS:
LAD over ARI – 63%
WAS over CHC – 51%
AL Champs:
CLE – 41%
HOU – 28%
NYY – 16%
BOS – 15%
NL Champs:
LAD – 35%
WAS – 25%
CHC – 24%
ARI – 16%
WS Champs:
CLE – 26%
LAD – 17%
HOU – 16%
WAS – 10%
CHC – 10%
NYY – 8%
BOS – 7%
ARI – 6%
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2017/10/05/north-carolina-ncaa-committee-infractions-decision-academic-scandal/735190001/
The NCAA’s decision on UNC is coming out tomorrow at noon.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/
538 has started their CFP model.
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 66%
2. Clemson – 55%
3. OU – 45%
4. UW – 40%
5. WI – 26%
6. UGA – 25%
7. OSU – 24%
8. PSU – 22%
9. TCU – 17%
10. Miami – 11%
(USC and AU also at 11%)
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 27%
Clemson – 15%
OU – 13%
UW – 9%
OSU – 7%
WI, PSU, UGA – 5%
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-college-football-dreams-have-yet-to-be-crushed/
538 wrote an article talking about where things stand now.
But it also means there’s plenty of hope to go around, whether a team is undefeated or not. A dozen teams currently have double-digit CFP probabilities, and 25 have at least a 1 percent chance of making the playoff. Furthermore, almost all of the top 20 teams in our projection are pretty likely to make the playoff if they win all of their remaining games. The only clear exception here is Notre Dame (4-1), which already needs some helpful losses from the teams above them.
Emphasis mine.
Right now 538 has ND with only a 28% chance of making the playoff if they win out (11-1 with wins over USC, Miami, Stanford, NCSU and a close loss to UGA). They go on to explain ND’s problems. First, they have no top 10 teams left on their schedule and they can’t force a loss onto many of the teams ahead of them (USC and Miami are it). Second, they can’t play in a CCG and get that valuable extra data point against a good team. Third, they can’t win a conference so the can’t get that bonus from the committee of being a champion. The second two problems are the cost of staying independent but you do have to wonder if over time they’ll drive ND to consider conference membership seriously.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2017-college-football-playoff-predictions-work/
538 explains how their CFB predictions work. They don’t really predict the games, they use ESPN’s FPI and the CFP rankings (AP poll until they’re out) for that. What they try to predict are the committee’s rankings of teams based on various game results.
Basically they simulate the rest of the season thousands of times and report the probability of various outcomes.
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Some fun results from their model follow.
Closest games for top teams this weekend:
FSU over Miami – 55%
UT over KSU – 56%
NCSU over UL – 56%
OR over WSU – 58%
UF over LSU – 59%
All other wins over 60% likely
B10 games:
OSU over UMD – 93%
MI over MSU – 81%
WI over NE – 80%
PSU over NW – 80%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 10% or higher):
AL – 38%
Clemson – 28%
OSU – 21%
SDSU – 20%
UW – 20%
OU – 19%
UCF – 16%
WI – 13%
PSU – 11%
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Iowa State just put a blemish on the Big 12 race (and the conference’s hopes of landing a team in the playoff) by winning 38-31 at Oklahoma. That simply isn’t supposed to happen, especially after the Cyclones fell behind 14-3 after one quarter.
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The final installment of Wilner’s series on the P12N. This part looks at the future of the networks.
The Pac-12 Networks on Thursday morning announced a major distribution deal, in China.
Alibaba will broadcast 175 live events annually. Terms were not disclosed, but the deal runs through 2023-24, thereby aligning it with the conference’s Tier 1 contracts (ESPN and Fox) and making every shred of Pac-12 content available for bid, everywhere, in five or six years.
…
Before we get to the long-term options, let’s focus on the immediate situation:
* The Pac-12 Networks are providing terrific exposure for an apparently limited audience of Olympic Sports fans.
* They are a highly-valued promotional tool for the conference (according to two presidents).
* They have limited distribution relative to their peers, partly because of the DirecTV stalemate.
* They have received mixed reviews from analysts and are churning out a modest sum to the campuses (again, relative to their peers).
* Also (and not to be overlooked for a nanosecond): They have grown in value as a media company that is wholly owned by the universities.
…
“We decided to hold onto our equity,’’ Oregon State president Ed Ray told the Hotline. “We’ll see where things go (in the future) and whether it makes sense to bring on a partner.”
Count me as skeptical of a sale in the window prior to the Tier 1 deal expiring.
…
“If you look longer-term, the world is changing more rapidly than anyone could have imagined,’’ Scott said. “We have the flexibility to adapt to new business models and changing consumer habits.”
If there’s no sale in the next six years, what changes, if anything?
…
To jettison the regionals in favor of simply streaming local content would require sign-off from Comcast, which would assuredly want to renegotiate, almost assuredly at a lower price.
So from my vantage point, it’s not feasible to adjust the Pac12 Networks distribution model before the Tier 1 deals expire.
Nor is there any reason to believe an agreement with DirecTV is coming.
…
Next summer is the key window. The Pac-12’s contract with AT&T (for sponsorship and U-verse carriage) expires in 2018.
I’m of the belief that the parties will either sign a six-year deal (to expire in 2024) with Pac-12 Networks carriage on DirecTV … or AT&T will walk away — and take U-verse with it.
Above and beyond the potential to add DTV carriage or lose AT&T altogether, I don’t see much changing for the networks in the near term.
It’s far more difficult to speculate on the fate of the networks — and the Pac-12’s broader content delivery options — in 2024 because of the incredible advancements in the media world.
“Technology is affecting behavior, and behavior is affecting technology, in terms of where people are investing,’’ said Chris Bevilacqua, an industry analyst who has worked with the Pac-12.
“I’ve never seen the pace of change that we’ve seen in the last three or four years, and I think it will accelerate. It’s like a tsunami.”
…
“Consumption is ahead of monetization,’’ he said. “By 2023, monetization catch up. The real tipping point will be when the market for sports rights makes its way into mobile monetization. Then the market for sports rights will reorganize.”
How will that reorganization look when the Pac-12 sits down to negotiate with 100 percent ownership of its content?
Streaming could dominate.
…
ESPN and Fox could still be the major players in sports rights, either with cable, satellite or streaming delivery leading the way..
“My guess is it will all reorganize in way that allows Over-The-Top and pay TV rights holders to coexist,’’ Bevilacqua said.
So many unknowns, but this much is sure:
The Pac-12 is counting on leverage shifting from consumers to mobile/digital distributors … on there being immense value in carriage of live sports across multiple platforms … on the ESPNs and Amazons having intense desire for Pac-12 content … and on the price of that content going up, up, up.
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Obviously a little more movement in the polls this week with OU and MI losing among others.
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. PSU
4/5. UGA (AP/Coaches)
5/4. UW
6/7. TCU
7/6. WI
8/9. WSU
9/8. OSU
10/11. AU
11/10. Miami
Others of note:
12. OU
17/16. MI
21/22. MSU
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/
538 updated:
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 64%
2. Clemson – 56%
3. UW – 42%
4. UGA – 33%
5. WI – 30%
6. OSU – 28%
7. PSU – 28%
8. OU – 18%
9. TCU – 18%
10. Miami – 16%
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 26%
Clemson – 14%
UW – 10%
OSU – 9%
UGA – 8%
PSU – 7%
WI – 6%
Closest games for top teams this weekend (2-3 last week):
MSU over MN – 53%
TT over WV – 56%
UF over TAMU – 58%
All other wins over 60% likely
B10 games (3-1 last week):
OSU over NE – 91%
WI over PU – 91%
MI over IN – 61%
MSU over MN – 53%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 10% or higher):
AL – 37%
Clemson – 28%
SDSU – 26%
OSU – 24%
UW – 22%
UCF – 19%
WI – 16%
PSU – 15%
OU – 11%
ND – 11%
UGA – 10%
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The coaching merry go round begins…with an unusual amicable waiving of contracts?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.oregonlive.com/beavers/index.ssf/2017/10/breaking_gary_andersen_out_as.amp
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Barnes said the coach was not in position to be fired for cause, did not have any health issues or other family-related issues. Less than two weeks ago, Barnes said in an interview with The Oregonian/OregonLive that OSU had “the right leader in place.”
The Oregonian/OregonLive reported that Andersen grew increasingly discouraged as the results just didn’t materialize and multiple sources told The Oregonian/OregonLive of internal dissension among some members of the assistant coaching staff. Andersen publicly said all criticism should come at him during a difficult season but also made numerous references to his assistants needing to coach better as the season wore on.
I heard a talking head speculating on the radio that there must be some hidden scandal or another job already lined up for him to walk away from $13M. I think he wanted out of a bad situation and felt bad that he just signed an extension in the off-season. It’s possible to be a good guy and a CFB coach.
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Interesting direct insight into a principled decision. Not sure something else contributed, but refreshing to see the almighty dollar isn’t universally worshiped.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/articles.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2017/10/canzano_gary_andersens_exit_ro.amp
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https://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/10/09/jemele-hill-suspend-espn
Since we discussed Jemele Hill earlier, it should be noted that ESPN has suspended her for 2 weeks for a second violation of their social media policy.
On Monday afternoon the network suspended commentator Jemele Hill for two weeks for a series of tweets she made Sunday night calling for an advertiser boycott of the Cowboys following Dallas owner and GM Jerry Jones saying his players will stand for the national anthem and not disrespect the flag, and if they do, the player or players will not play.
Hill said that a more powerful protest than Cowboys players Dez Bryant and Dak Prescott personally boycotting would be to stop watching and buying Cowboys merchandise.
“If you strongly reject what Jerry Jones said, the key is his advertisers,” Hill tweeted at 10:50 p.m. ET Sunday. “Don’t place the burden squarely on the players.” Responding to a tweet from a Twitter follower that listed some Cowboys’ sponsors, Hill tweeted, “This play always work. Change happens when advertisers are impacted. If you feel strongly about JJ’s statement, boycott his advertisers.”
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Hill lives in a bubble and is totally disconnected from the NFL’s fan base. The vast majority of NFL fans support Trump on this issue. ESPN itself is out of touch with sports fans in general. Even Mike and Mike is unwatchable because of the politics.
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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/night-owls-in-other-regions-are-watching-late-huskies-games/
I’m sure we all heard about UW coach Chris Petersen complaining about UW’s games always being at night. While he’s correct that there are downsides for players and fans in attendance, he’s wrong about it hurting UW’s exposure. Ratings show that P12 games at night draw better nationally and east of the Rockies.
Through the first five years of this TV deal, the national viewership for Pac-12 games after 9 p.m. has been 12 percent greater than for those played in the afternoon. And on ESPN2, the national viewership has been 72 percent greater for late-night Pac-12 games versus those played during the day.
One might contend the national surge is due to an overwhelming number of West Coast fans watching in prime time. But then there’s this stat.
Last year, not only was the average national audience bigger for late-night Pac-12 games, the East/Central region audiences (defined as everything east of the Rockies) were bigger, too. Early Pac-12 kickoffs drew 60 percent of their audience from the East/Central region versus 40 percent from the Pacific region. Late Pac-12 kickoffs, meanwhile, drew 65 percent of their audience from the East/Central versus 35 percent from the Pacific.
In other words, viewership from the Eastern and Central time zones didn’t shrink for games starting after 9 p.m. — they grew. The reason? Simple. Fans don’t have any other games to watch.
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http://www.espnfc.com/blog/the-match/60/post/3224208/world-cup-hopes-end-for-woeful-usa-after-shambolic-display-vs-trinidad-and-tobago
The US finally managed to blow their chances at making the World Cup after flirting with disaster multiple times. The US hasn’t missed the WC since 1986. Expect repercussions throughout the US soccer structure.
This is a huge blow for Fox, too. They paid $200M for the rights to the WC. Fox had just announced this would be their biggest production ever with 350 hours of live programming. Now they probably have to rethink their whole approach as US ratings will be abysmal.
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http://www.espnfc.com/united-states/story/3226316/bruce-arena-on-united-states-missing-world-cup-we-failed-today
And yet here’s the US coach:
“I think it’s disappointing. It’s a blemish for us,” said Arena. “We should be not be staying home for this World Cup. I take responsibility for that.”
Arena’s contract expires next July, while U.S. Soccer president Sunil Gulati will face opposition if he decides to stand for re-election in a vote set for February.
But asked how U.S. Soccer should respond to the defeat, Arena answered in a manner that is likely to infuriate American fans everywhere.
“There’s nothing wrong with what we’re doing,” he said. “Certainly as our league grows, it advances the national team program. We have some good young players come up.
“Nothing has to change. To make any kind of crazy changes I think would be foolish. We’re building a good system in our professional league. We have players playing abroad of some quality.
“There’s enough there. There’s no excuses for us not qualifying for the World Cup.”
That’s a great plan, coach. Change nothing and hope players magically get better.
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Soccer is a sport for school kids and girls. Athletic boys in high school have many more lucrative options in other sports, which actually have fan bases.
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https://www.forbes.com/athletes/#1657b7a755ae
Soccer is very lucrative, just not in the US. 2 of the 3 highest paid athletes in the world play soccer. Cristiano Ronaldo is making $93M this year in salary + endorsements.
I don’t think anyone expects the US to be elite in soccer, but we should be better than small Caribbean nations. Our top athletes will play other sports, but we have 330M people to choose from. Trinidad and Tobago has fewer than 1.4M residents.
A well-run soccer system in the US would produce a significantly better product on the field.
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http://www.espnfc.com/united-states/story/3227739/bruce-arena-resigns-as-united-states-manager-after-world-cup-miss
And Bruce Arena has stepped down as coach. The head of US Soccer has said he won’t quit, but he’s up for re-election in February anyway.
“When I took the job last November, I knew there was a great challenge ahead, probably more than most people could appreciate. Everyone involved in the program gave everything they had for the last 11 months, and in the end we came up short.
“No excuses. We didn’t get the job done, and I accept responsibility. This certainly is a major setback for the senior Men’s National Team program, and questions rightly should be asked about how we can improve. No doubt this process already has started and will continue so that U.S. Soccer can progress.
“Having said that, it also is important to recognize the tremendous growth and accomplishments we have achieved over the past two decades in all areas, including player development, coaching education and a stable domestic professional league. That work is ongoing, and despite the result in Trinidad the sport is on the right path. By working together, I am confident soccer in this country will continue to grow in the years and decades ahead. Obviously the biggest disappointment is for our fans.
He keeps hyping MLS as some major achievement. But it’s a terrible league and most of the best players are foreign (but not the best players in their own country if it’s a soccer power). To get better you need to play against better players. That’s why the best US players go overseas.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-new-in-our-2017-18-club-soccer-predictions/
MLS is the #28 league in the world (but way ahead of all but the Mexican league among CONCACAF nations).
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-worst-loss-in-the-history-of-u-s-mens-soccer/
And despite his claims, the US’s Elo rating has fluctuated but not improved over the past 20 years. We were better a few years ago, but we are right back to where we were in 1998 now.
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Arrests warrants have been issued for 10 LSU students who were members of Phi Delta Theta fraternity in connection with the death of 18-year-old pledge Maxwell Gruver, according to LSU officials.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/article_76972f52-ae8d-11e7-b5a8-c3c85f7b3b7e.html
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It’s nice to see the state taking this seriously. Students need to get past this sort of behavior.
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“East Baton Rouge Coroner Beau Clark said Wednesday that 18-year-old fraternity pledge Maxwell Gruver’s blood-alcohol content level was 0.495 percent at the time of his death, more than six times the legal limit for driving.
Gruver died of died of acute alcohol intoxication with aspiration, Clark said. His death was ruled an accident.”
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/article_ef531976-ae95-11e7-bf5e-f7634cf7ec99.html?utm_content=buffer0d2f5&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/now-is-the-perfect-time-for-oregon-state-to-find-a-new-identity-by-running-the-option/
Tom Fornelli suggests that struggling P5 teams like OrSU should run the option so they can compete. He uses GT as a good example. While I don’t think it’s a terrible idea, especially in conferences not known for their defenses necessarily (B12, P12), I don’t think it’s necessary.
Counterexamples:
Fitzgerald running the spread at NW
Harbaugh then Shaw running a pro-style offense at Stanford
O’Leary running a pro-style offense at GT
More details on GT:
They were a power before the Vietnam War with only 3 coaches from 1904-1966 (John Heisman, William Alexander and Bobby Dodd). Heisman and Dodd are their only coaches to win over 70% of their games at GT (Alexander won 58% over 25 years). Since Dodd left, only 2 coaches have won even 60% of their games – George O’Leary at 61.2% and Paul Johnson at 60.2%. GT only has won 3 ACC titles since the Korean War – Bobby Ross in 1990, O’Leary in 1998 and Johnson in 2009.
The point is that GT has had success both with a pro-style offense and the option. A good coach can win regardless of his preferred system.
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Georgia Tech was an SEC member until the mid-sixties, leaving the conference at roughly the same time as Tulane. After a dozen or so years as a football independent (and a few years in the old Metro conference), it joined the ACC in 1979-80, but wasn’t eligible for the conference football title for several years.
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They also didn’t win the SEC after 1952.
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Perhaps Alan or a fellow SEC buff can explain the reasons why Georgia Tech and Tulane left the conference, although I’m certain the reasons weren’t identical. I don’t sense that integration was a factor, but there may have been other factors. Tech at least landed on its feet with the ACC, while Tulane — like Rice and Southern Methodist — likely is forever doomed to be outside the P5.
Had both remained in the SEC, it would not have needed to expand in the early ’90s, as it would’ve already had 12 members (located in Atlanta and New Orleans) and could split into divisions without taking in newcomers. In that alternate universe, what would a post-ACC South Carolina have done? Would Arkansas have been stuck in the SWC? And how would all the other dominoes have fallen, from Rutgers to Utah?
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vp19,
“Perhaps Alan or a fellow SEC buff can explain the reasons why Georgia Tech and Tulane left the conference, although I’m certain the reasons weren’t identical.”
For GT, it was recruiting and disciplinary problems with Alabama (and others). For Tulane it was academics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Tech_Yellow_Jackets_football
Dodd’s tenure included Georgia Tech’s withdrawal from the Southeastern Conference.[32] The initial spark for Dodd’s withdrawal was a historic feud with Alabama Crimson Tide Coach Bear Bryant.[34] The feud began when Tech was visiting the Tide at Legion Field in Birmingham in 1961. After a Tech punt, Alabama fair-caught the ball. Chick Granning of Tech was playing coverage and relaxed after the signal for the fair catch. Darwin Holt of Alabama continued play and smashed his elbow into Granning’s face causing severe fracturing in his face, a broken nose, and blood-filled sinuses. Granning was knocked unconscious and suffered a severe concussion, the result of which left him unable to play football ever again. Dodd sent Bryant a letter asking Bryant to suspend Holt after game film indicated Holt had intentionally injured Granning.[34] Bryant never suspended Holt. The lack of discipline infuriated Dodd and sparked Dodd’s interest in withdrawing from the SEC.
Another issue of concern for Dodd was Alabama’s and other SEC schools’ over-recruitment of players.[34] Universities would recruit more players than they had roster space for. During the summer practice sessions, the teams in question would cut the players well after signing day thus preventing the cut players from finding new colleges to play for. Dodd appealed the SEC administration to punish the “tryout camps” of his fellow SEC members but the SEC did not. Finally, Dodd withdrew Georgia Tech from the SEC in 1964.[34]
Here’s more on GT plus info on Tulane:
http://blog.al.com/bn/2008/02/southeastern_conference_charte.html
Tulane, a private university, could easily be another Vanderbilt in the SEC if not for a decision in 1951 by new president Rufus Harris to cut football scholarships from 100 to 75, reduce coaches’ salaries and switch physical education from a major to a minor.
The Green Wave had won three conference titles in football but Harris believed athletics was overshadowing academics.
It took 15 years for Tulane to give up on the SEC in 1966. “We scheduled all the SEC teams and we just couldn’t compete,” said Bobby Duhon, the first Tulane player to roll up 1,000 yards of offense in three straight seasons. “We just couldn’t recruit against the state schools. We couldn’t recruit kids who didn’t have the grades because we didn’t have any (less-demanding) classes to put them in.”
“Had both remained in the SEC, it would not have needed to expand in the early ’90s, as it would’ve already had 12 members (located in Atlanta and New Orleans) and could split into divisions without taking in newcomers. In that alternate universe, what would a post-ACC South Carolina have done? Would Arkansas have been stuck in the SWC? And how would all the other dominoes have fallen, from Rutgers to Utah?”
1. Arkansas stays in the SWC.
2. That means Baylor doesn’t make the B12 but joins the WAC with the other former SWC members, probably keeping Tulsa out.
3. SC probably joins the ACC at some point in the 2000s, perhaps instead of BC. If not, then SC would be in the SEC instead of MO most likely.
4. That domino means MO might be #13 in the B10 now. That opens the question of whether the B10 would’ve taken KU with MO or if they really wanted RU. Would UMD have gotten in at all?
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Maryland was the #13 … Rutgers had been on the shelf for a while, they were a potential #14 waiting for a #13 to come along. Between MO & Rutgers as potential #14, I think the Eastern Exposure would still have got Rutgers in, but I also think MO would have had at least a few champions arguing their case.
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BruceMcF,
“Maryland was the #13″
They were, but was that in part because MO was unavailable then? But in my scenario, SC joined the SEC as #14 when TAMU joined. That would leave MO available when the B10 started thinking about going to 14. The question is then would the B10 prefer to take the available pair of MO and KU or would they still fight the ACC to pry out UMD? And with the ACC seeming more stable, perhaps, would UMD be as interested in leaving? And if the B10 took UMD, would they take MO over RU?
” … Rutgers had been on the shelf for a while, they were a potential #14 waiting for a #13 to come along. Between MO & Rutgers as potential #14, I think the Eastern Exposure would still have got Rutgers in, but I also think MO would have had at least a few champions arguing their case.”
I think MO would have been a much easier sell since it was already a P5 member. I know RU supposedly opened NYC to the B10 but only the presidents have ever liked the addition.
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https://www.ncaa.org/governance/ncaa-commission-college-basketball
The NCAA has formed a committee to look into how to fix men’s basketball.
The Commission on College Basketball has been established by the NCAA Board of Governors, Division I Board of Directors and President Mark Emmert to fully examine critical aspects of Division I men’s basketball. Specifically, the commission will focus on three areas:
The relationship of the NCAA national office, member institutions, student-athletes and coaches with outside entities.
These relationships include:
Apparel companies and other commercial entities, to establish an environment where they can support programs in a transparent way, but not become an inappropriate or distorting influence on the game, recruits or their families.
Non-scholastic basketball, with a focus on the appropriate involvement of college coaches and others.
Agents or advisors, with an emphasis on how students and their families can get legitimate advice without being taken advantage of, defrauded or risk their NCAA eligibility.
The NCAA’s relationship with the NBA.
The commission will explore the challenging effect the NBA’s so-called “one and done” rule has had on college basketball, including how the NCAA can change its own eligibility rules to address that dynamic.
Creating the right relationship between the universities and colleges of the NCAA and its national office to promote transparency and accountability.
The commission will be asked to evaluate whether the appropriate degree of authority is vested in the current enforcement and eligibility processes. It will also examine if the collaborative model provides the investigative tools, cultural incentives and structures to ensure exploitation and corruption cannot hide in college sports.
Their report is due in April.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/21000824/north-carolina-tar-heels-get-ruling-ncaa-infractions-committee-panel-friday
This time they mean it. UNC will get their NCAA ruling tomorrow. Better prepare that wrist for slapping.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/247sports-partner-pro-football-focus-launch-site-dedicated-player-data.html
There’s a new website out there for diehard CFB fans of a certain type.
On Tuesday, 247Sports announced a partnership with Pro Football Focus that will result in a new microsite devoted to college player data. The site, which is currently online at 247sports.com/pffcollege, will offer number-driven coverage of college sports. Articles posted so far feature headlines such as “Ohio State the No. 2 team in football? Yep, per PFF College,” “How wide receiver blocking helped Iowa State pull off its upset” and “Michigan’s Maurice Hurst was CFB’s best player in Week 6.”
247Sports says it will offer its subscribers access to PFF’s game-by-game grades on every player at every FBS school, a massive trove of information. It will also utilize PFF statistics on its network of team-specific sites.
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The NCAA’s decision on UNC is a complete disgrace.
Does this mean schools can basically get away with these types of situations as long as the benefit doesn’t go just to athletes?
It’s a complete mockery of previous NCAA decisions to penalize institutions for all sorts of trivial offenses when the biggest academic scandal in NCAA history can get swept under the rug like this.
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z33k,
The NCAA has no power over academics beyond setting some numerical standards for athletes to meet and not allowing special treatment of athletes. The accreditation board was the only entity with the power to punish UNC for this sort of offense, and they slapped their wrists (1 year of probation).
If the problem is school-wide, it’s above the NCAA’s paygrade. And it should be. UNC messed with the value of their diplomas and that’s not something the NCAA is capable of regulating. The NCAA would have to acquire a set of broad powers to punish things like this or PSU without losing in court.
I’m disappointed they couldn’t do more, but I didn’t expect that they would.
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NCAA Bylaw 10.1: Unethical conduct by a prospective or enrolled student-athlete or a current or former institutional staff member (e.g., coach, professor, tutor, teaching assistant, student manager, student trainer) may include, but is not limited to, the following:
(b) Knowing involvement in arranging for fraudulent academic credit or false transcripts for a prospective or an enrolled student-athlete;
That’s pretty much the charge that should have sunk UNC. Why? Because in their original report they essentially admitted to that one, but then changed their stance 2 years later when their lawyers realized they could get out of the whole thing by claiming no academic fraud happened.
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The committee can only consider what they are presented this time around. They did note that they were disappointed in UNC changing their stance on the independent report into the scandal, but it’s hard to prove the behavior fit into that rule when UNC denies it. The transcripts weren’t false and the academic credit wasn’t fraudulent. The classes were academically fraudulent, but that’s outside the scope of the NCAA. They did punish the professor with a show cause penalty.
The schools have to either give the NCAA a broad set of powers or accept that the NCAA can’t punish things like this.
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The rule isn’t limited; it explicitly states that it isn’t limited.
The question is whether the committee (and by extension the member schools) want to actually enforce that rule in a case such as this.
What I’m trying to say is that there’s enough there to pin this on UNC, but ultimately the committee declined to charge them, which means that they’ve essentially accepted that they don’t want the NCAA to punish things like this.
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z33k,
“The rule isn’t limited; it explicitly states that it isn’t limited.”
The rule can say whatever it wants because the limitation is implied. The NCAA will tell you that they have no power over the operation of the academic side of the schools. If they tried, they’d just lose in court anyway.
“The question is whether the committee (and by extension the member schools) want to actually enforce that rule in a case such as this.”
No, that isn’t the question. What the committee wants is irrelevant. They are required to be neutral and act on the evidence presented and the rules as written. They don’t get to just punish who they want for what they want. It has to be proven.
“What I’m trying to say is that there’s enough there to pin this on UNC, but ultimately the committee declined to charge them, which means that they’ve essentially accepted that they don’t want the NCAA to punish things like this.”
I think this is the difference between legally sufficient evidence of a specific violation and the big picture view that clearly UNC did something wrong. UNC was charged, they just weren’t found guilty. The fact that they gave access to everyone to these fake classes took it out of the NCAA’s realm as the rules currently stand.
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Texas AD Mike Perrin (from Kirk Bohls Twitter):
On possible realignment, Perrin: “I won’t be surprised if there’s another round of talks but I don’t think there is any right now.”
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It makes sense. All the various GORs and TV deals have too many years left for anyone to want to make a move now. In 4-5 years is when talks might start back up.
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Friday the 13th struck hard in CFB. #2 Clemson loses a close game at Syracuse and #8 WSU gets crushed by Cal. That’s a big blow to the P12 where teams struggle for high value wins. It’s also bad for the ACC as Miami is their only remaining unbeaten.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/
Clemson’s odds of making the CFP were cut in half by the loss (now 28%).
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 67%
2. UW – 49%
3. UGA – 37%
4. WI – 33%
5. OSU – 30%
6. PSU – 29%
7. Clemson – 28%
8. TCU – 21%
9. OU – 21%
10. Miami – 19%
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 27%
UW – 12%
OSU – 10%
UGA – 9%
PSU – 8%
WI – 7%
Clemson – 6%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 10% or higher):
AL – 38%
SDSU – 27%
UW – 26%
OSU – 25%
Clemson – 21%
UCF – 20%
WI – 17%
PSU – 15%
OU – 12%
ND – 11%
UGA – 11%
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Weird happenings in College Park. There have been reports athletic director Kevin Anderson has been put on leave with pay — something the university later denied — amid talk Anderson has been interviewed for the AD job at Cal. Despite the all-around success Maryland has had in the Big Ten, many Terp fans still have it in for Anderson after football coach Ralph Friedgen was dismissed in late 2010.
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Also rumors out there that NE is about to hire UCF’s current AD Danny White. Coincidentally, former NE QB Scott Frost is the head coach at UCF right now.
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Several milestones were reached Saturday:
1. MI and OSU both won their 500th Big ten games officially (OSU’s 7 B10 wins from 2010 were vacated). MI is 500-203-18. OSU is 500-173-24. Third is WI with 365 wins.
2. OSU tied NE for 4th in all-time official wins with 892. MI has 940. ND has 906. TX has 894. Obviously these numbers vary depending on the source, but these seem to be the accepted values.
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Wow. This was a huge weekend of upsets. #2 Clemson, #5 UW, #8 WSU and #10 Auburn all lost. Several other top teams barely survived (MI in OT, Miami on a last second FG, OU with a late TD). That’s a huge blow to the P12 in the CFP race. The ACC isn’t thrilled either. The top 1-loss teams are thrilled to get more company though.
Also, several top contenders for the G5 spot lost (#19 SDSU, #25 Navy) leaving USF and UCF as the only G5 undefeateds. This all but locks the AAC champion into the NY6 slot.
Remaining undefeateds:
ACC – Miami
B10 – PSU, WI
B12 – TCU
P12 – none
SEC – AL, UGA
G5 – UCF, USF
1 loss P5 teams:
ACC – Clemson, NCSU, UVA, VT
B10 – OSU, MI, MSU
B12 – OU, OkSU
P12 – UW, WSU, USC
SEC – UK
Ind – ND
The polls will be interesting.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-college-football-predictions/
Talk about impacts, look at how 538’s predictions have now changed.
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 71%
2. UGA – 39%
3. OSU – 38%
4. WI – 32%
5. TCU – 31%
6. PSU – 30%
7. Clemson – 27%
8. Miami – 24%
9. OU – 23%
10. UW – 20%
11. USC – 12%
The SEC and B10 seem almost guaranteed spots with 5 of the top 6 teams in terms of likelihood while the P12 seems to be in trouble, but there are a lot of games to play.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
The ACC, B12 and P12 have no reasonable chances to get 2 teams in. Neither does the B10, frankly. The one plausible option is 12-0 UGA beating 12-0 AL in the SECCG.
If UGA wins out, AL has a 35% chance to make it (3rd team in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
If AL wins out, UGA has an 18% chance to make it (10th in likelihood).
If WI wins out, PSU has a 14% chance to make it (9th in likelihood).
If OSU wins out, WI has a 10% chance to make it (11th in likelihood).
If PSU wins out, WI has an 8% chance to make it (11th in likelihood).
If MI wins out, PSU has a 7% chance to make it (11th in likelihood).
The moral of the story is that people should root for UGA (and/or AL) to lose a game before the CCG. That would eliminate the 2 SEC teams scenario.
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 29%
OSU – 14%
UGA – 9%
PSU – 8%
WI – 6%
Clemson – 6%
TCU – 6%
OU – 5%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 15% or higher):
AL – 40%
OSU – 31%
UCF – 24%
Fresno – 20%
UW – 20%
Clemson – 20%
WI – 16%
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Jon Wilner thinks the P12 needs to improve their scheduling.
Did the Pac-12 schedule itself out of the College Football Playoff?
…
* USC lost a Friday night road game after playing a Saturday road game. The Trojans were undefeated and ranked fifth at the time.
* Washington State lost a Friday night road game after a Saturday road game. The Cougars were undefeated and ranked eighth at the time.
* Washington lost to a home team coming off a bye, with two full weeks to prepare. The Huskies were undefeated and ranked fifth at the time.
All three situations could be considered competitive disadvantages for the contenders.
Playing a short-week road game following a road game doesn’t guarantee a loss, not by any stretch. Nor does playing a road game against a team coming off a bye.
…
So we’ll give credit to the winners, for sure. And we’ll acknowledge that the losers had plenty of issues that cannot be directly attributed to scheduling. (For instance: UW’s field goal kicking.)
And we’ll admit that scheduling is difficult, very difficult, especially with so many quirks — from the Stanford/USC-Notre Dame issue to the contracts with ESPN and Fox that allow for the Thursday and Friday games.
BUT …
We’ll also argue that the schedule matters … that a competitive disadvantage increases the chance of losing … and that three Pac-12 playoff contenders were at competitive disadvantages in recent weeks — and lost.
Also: Other Power Five conferences don’t place teams in as many difficult situations as the Pac-12.
They don’t ask teams to play Friday road games after Saturday road games; they don’t give one participant a bye before a crucial rivalry game (Washington State is off before the Apple Cup); and they rarely ask teams to play conference games against opponents coming off a bye.
…
Qualifying for the playoff is tough enough, especially with the nine-game conference schedule. Any chance the Pac-12 has to remove an obstacle, it should.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
Coaches poll:
1. AL (unanimous)
2. PSU
3. UGA
4. TCU
5. WI
6. OSU
7. Miami
8. Clemson
9. OU
10. USC
11. OkSU
15. MI
19. MSU
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
The AP poll is very similar with #1-6 the same.
AP poll:
1. AL (unanimous)
2. PSU
3. UGA
4. TCU
5. WI
6. OSU
7. Clemson
8. Miami
9. OU
10. OkSU
11. USC
18. MSU
19. MI
#13/16 USF is the top G5 team.
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The updated AP poll slightly changes 538’s projections.
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 71%
2. UGA – 39%
3. OSU – 33%
4. WI – 33%
5. PSU – 33%
6. TCU – 30%
7. Clemson – 30%
8. UW – 23%
9. Miami – 23%
10. OU – 22%
11. OkSU – 11%
The SEC and B10 seem almost guaranteed spots with the top 5 teams in terms of likelihood while the P12 seems to be in trouble, but there are a lot of games to play.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
The ACC, B12 and P12 have no reasonable chances to get 2 teams in. Neither does the B10, frankly. The one plausible option is 12-0 UGA beating 12-0 AL in the SECCG.
If UGA wins out, AL has a 35% chance to make it (2nd team in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
If AL wins out, UGA has an 18% chance to make it (10th in likelihood).
If WI wins out, PSU has a 14% chance to make it (9th in likelihood).
If OSU wins out, WI and PSU each have a 9% chance to make it (9th in likelihood).
If PSU wins out, WI has an 9% chance to make it (11th in likelihood).
If MI wins out, PSU has a 5% chance to make it (11th in likelihood).
The moral of the story is that people should root for UGA (and/or AL) to lose a game before the CCG. That would eliminate the 2 SEC teams scenario.
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 29%
OSU – 12%
PSU – 9%
UGA – 9%
Clemson – 7%
WI – 6%
TCU – 5%
UW – 5%
OU – 5%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 15% or higher):
AL – 39%
OSU – 27%
UCF – 23%
Clemson – 21%
UW – 20%
PSU – 17%
WI – 16%
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/10/15/new-version-of-football-targets-falling-youth-participation/106686076/
They are introducing a new version of youth football called Rookie Tackle designed to help segue kids from flag football to tackle but with fewer heavy impacts. There are fewer players per team, a smaller field, no special teams plays, no fumble recoveries and no 3- or 4-point stances. The coaches are on the field near the players to help them out.
In baseball terms, this is the coaches pitching level (higher than tee-ball but lower than kids pitching to kids).
According to Aspen Institute data from the Sports & Fitness Industry Association, participation in tackle football is down 19 percent from 2011 to 2016. Broken down further, the drop is greater (25.6 percent) for ages 13-17 than ages 6-12 (6.4 percent).
Over the same period, participation in soccer, lacrosse, baseball and basketball for children ages 6-12 has dropped at an even greater rate than participation in football, according SFIA’s research.
Hallenbeck said participation numbers in tackle football have plateaued but USA Football is seeing an uptick in flag football being played at the youth levels.
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Those declines are big numbers.
Really no need for organized tackle football before 7th grade.
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Agreed, those are big numbers. But all the sports were way down for 6-12 so I wonder if it’s largely a demographic issue or something. I don’t think they’re talking the percentage of kids of age who choose to play but total participants.
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Would like to see how this breaks down geographically. I sense the declines are most minimal (or non-existent) in the South, where football culture is strongest.
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Yes, I linked an article a while ago that said participation was up in the south.
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http://journalstar.com/sports/huskers/nebraska-tabs-moos-to-lead-athletic-department/article_43fe47bd-e5f6-5a9b-a522-e6e732fb2ad2.html#tncms
NE has hired Bill Moos away from WSU to take over as AD. Will the Pirate follow him to the plains?
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Damn, I wanted Moos for my Illini back when they were choosing Whitman.
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https://www.fanragsports.com/rothstein-big-ten-head-coaches-vote-in-favor-of-schedule-change-2/
B10 hoops coaches have voted to expand the season to 20 games in 2018-19.
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Maryland AD Kevin Anderson has taken a six-month sabbatical and likely isn’t coming back to College Park, with Damon Evans taking over on an interim basis. It’s been a pretty bizarre past few days in Terrapin territory. https://www.testudotimes.com/2017/10/16/16477256/maryland-terps-ad-kevin-anderson-leave-status-update-analysis
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http://thecomeback.com/soccer/gutted-angry-perplexed-columbus-crew-fans-cope-team-moving.html
MLS has gone big time. The new owner of the Columbus Crew (bought them in 2013) refused a deal to sell half or all of the team to local owners and instead will move the team to Austin, TX for 2019. He wanted a new downtown stadium (Columbus built the first major soccer-specific stadium in the US for the Crew 20 years ago and the Crew was the MLS’s first team) but didn’t get one.
Good luck to him in Austin. He’s moving from a state capital of around 1M residents that is a giant college town to a state capital of around 1M residents that is a giant college town. But the weather will be warmer and there may be more soccer fans due to demographics.
MLS now has their Art Modell.
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There goes my MLS team. Luckily Man City is doing alright, so I’m not going to have to just sit and stew waiting for a Crew Version 2.
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Silver Stars to the Silver State! The WNBA’s San Antonio franchise is moving to Las Vegas.
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http://thecomeback.com/nba/adam-silver-may-end-one-and-done-rule.html
Adam Silver wants to end the “one and done” rule ASAP. He said the FBI investigation makes it even more clear the rule is bad for basketball. He also noted that the last two #1 draft picks played for teams that didn’t even make the NCAA tournament, indicating that they aren’t highly concerned about winning in college.
I say good riddance to the rule. Perhaps they’ll copy the baseball model, but I doubt it. I think they’ll just let you be draft eligible whenever.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21055578/former-louisville-cardinals-coach-rick-pitino-files-lawsuit-adidas
Rick Pitino is suing Adidas for paying recruits “without his knowledge.” I’m not sure opening this can of worms is in his best interest.
In the lawsuit, Pitino’s attorneys allege that Adidas employees’ “outrageous conduct” to funnel money to the family of a recruit without his knowledge caused “grave damage to his public and private standing and reputation, causing him extreme embarrassment, humiliation, and emotional distress.”
“[Pitino] has never authorized, tolerated, participated in, or otherwise condoned giving improper benefits to recruits or players, or to their families, especially as an inducement to have recruits join the University of Louisville men’s basketball program,” the lawsuit says.
“The lawsuit is about more than just money; it is Coach Pitino’s vehicle for proving that he had nothing to do with Adidas’ outrageous, wrongful, and illegal conspiracy.”
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Jonesing for some expansion silliness? Let’s turn to twitter for some amusement:
@MHver3 left twitter in shame about 1 year ago because his expansion predictions all fell through. Apparently he is back as of yesterday.
Summary:
* Declines in TV will lead to contraction.
* The media model will change drastically to streaming and conference brands will mean less.
* Nebraska wants back in the B12.
* The P12 is in trouble due to poor TV ratings.
Here’s a few from 10/16:
“It is time to return to share with you the rumblings of the college football world.
Expansion isn’t dead. It’s just been in hibernation.
Big12 stands to win B1G in the next few years. But they won’t be the only winners.
With the downfall of cable subscribers the next round of expansion will be expansion through contraction.
Dismal ratings. Horrible attendance figures. Network a disaster. Pac12 days are numbered.
B10 stands to gain from Pac12 woes but so does B12 and maybe even ACC.
There is currently one school I. The B1G that wants out. New AD has promised some that he will bring them back home
Mormons don’t fear. The B12 has never stopped lines of communication. Still the most attractive option not locked up.
Contiguous states be damned when B10 absorbs a new time zone.
Would Colorado in B10 be enough to keep Husker fan base happy? Or is B12 return imminent?
New AD has already reached out to people at UT and OU. Looking into mending bridges.
Within 5 years the landscape of CFB will change dramatically. Television money will start to decline
Streaming money will be the name of the game.
Compelling historical matchups will rule again.
B12 will survive. Thrive even. But WVU will be playing regional rivals yearly again.
Things are already in motion that will change everything. The NCAA may not survive but big-time College Sports will.
Power conferences will become power conglomerates. They Amy cannibalize each other and combine. It will be a new day
Conference branding will not be the major stream of income anymore.
The true money will come from the streaming and tv rights for a new American College Athletics Association
When it does happen it will be a true split of about 80-90 schools that will no longer operate under the NCAA umbrella.
It’s a very real possibility that in the short term Nebraska may negotiate its way out of the B10.
There have even been whispers that WVU could take Nebraskas spot in B10 in a settlement for both sides and keep B12 at 10 members for now.”
And 10/17:
“Every single school in Pac12 has already tried to negotiate a landing spot in the event the conference folds.
AZ and ASU were the first to do so last year with the B12. It’s what quelled expansion then.
B12 realized it didn’t need to expand yet. It just needed to wait out the Pac12.
And a WVU trade for Nebraska is highly highly unlikely but it is intriguing.
Why would Nebraska give up $50mil a year and ownership in B10 network you ask ?
The money difference in coming back to B12 would be minimal-counting T3 they can sell it would be less than $6mil a year.
Did you know Nebraska’s traveling attendance has fallen nearly 50% since the B12 days?”
That’s a whole lot of ideas in 2 days. Not many make sense, either.
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Why would the Pac fold? It’s probably relatively safe, thanks primarily to geography.
Returning to a Plains-based conference won’t revive Nebraska football. And do any of these people understand the sundry academic benefits of Big Ten membership?
WVU replacing Nebraska in the B1G? That sound you heard was college presidents laughing.
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Or the sound might B1G faculty choking in rage at the horror of a WVU membership.
The B1G is set for years. No one will leave. Only a high quality academic school will get in in the future. Obviously not UNC, much to Delaney’s sorrow.
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vp19,
“Why would the Pac fold?”
His argument is financial.
“It’s probably relatively safe, thanks primarily to geography.”
I think we all agree on that.
“Returning to a Plains-based conference won’t revive Nebraska football.”
No, it won’t. But many older NE fans yearn for the good ole days of NE dominance and remember that came in the B8 and B12, not B10. They miss the old rivalries and want them back. There’s also a feeling that NE would recruit better, especially in TX. That last part might be true.
“And do any of these people understand the sundry academic benefits of Big Ten membership?”
No, nor do they care.
“WVU replacing Nebraska in the B1G? That sound you heard was college presidents laughing.”
I did warn it was silliness.
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He defeats his financial argument.
“Television money will start to decline
Streaming money will be the name of the game.”
Near 100% SEC, 100% ACC, and 50% the B1G are tied for quite a while to a broadcast partner for alternative distribution. Only PAC has 100% control of alternative methods of distribution.
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https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/10/midwestern-public-research-universities-funding/542889/
Interesting article in The Atlantic about the threat to Midwestern public research universities from state and federal budget cuts, as well as the threat to the region, and the country, resulting from said cuts.
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This is a threat to every university in the country. Essentially 100% of every research dollar at every university, include all of the Ivies, comes from outside sources, the vast majority of which is federal. Even at schools with large endowments like Harvard’s, a great deal of that endowment is ultimately derived from overhead charges on federal projects.
The reality is that entitlement spending and debt servicing are driving out all other spending, including military spending. Today, our annual federal budget deficit is as large as the military budget, and in a few years the annual interest payment on the accumulated debt will be the largest item in the federal budget even if interest rates don’t rise. We are headed for a budgetary disaster of Great Depression proportions.
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We have 2 choices. Either the economy has to grow at rates not seen for 20 or 30 years or we will be inflating our way this mess. Just can’t see any of these idiot politicians making tough choices to cut entitlement spending. Taxing rich people doesn’t fix the mess either.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/louisville/2017/10/18/tom-jurich-fired-cause-university-louisville/773362001/
UL fired AD Tom Jurich with cause. I guess you only get so many scandals, even at UL, before you get in trouble. Sadly, the BoT vote was only 10-3 to fire him.
Trustees Brian Cromer, Diane Medley and Ronald Wright voted against the motion. They expressed their support for Jurich prior to the tally.
None of the other trustees spoke when offered the chance.
“I think he is owed some thanks for those things that he’s done,” Wright said. “… I hope that we can somehow relay that to Mr. Jurich, some thanks for the service that he has provided to this community.”
Interim university President Greg Postel declined comment after the meeting, saying it was a “legal matter.” But he assured the community that Jurich’s firing doesn’t represent a backpedal from athletics.
“Athletics will not take a backseat,” Postel said. “We’re bullish on athletics.”
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To Maryland officials and fans: Don’t even think about hiring him.
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WSU’s president spoke out about the P12N and
Given that backdrop, it’s notable when one of the presidents speaks up. And Washington State’s Kirk Schulz didn’t just speak up; he offered a stark assessment of the Pac-12 Networks.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday in the wake of WSU athletic director Bill Moos’ sudden departure (to Nebraska), Schulz offered this assessment of the networks:
“The original projections made way before I was here was that there was going to be substantial revenue coming in to the different members of the Pac-12,” Schulz said, per the Seattle Times.
“While we have exceeded some lower level expectations, I think the Pac-12 Network is still not providing the sort of dollars the other schools in the SEC and Big Ten get from their conference networks.”
That’s spot on: The Pac-12 Networks churned out approximately $2.5 million per school in FY17, according to documents obtained by the Hotline.
By comparison, the Big Ten and SEC networks are sending three and four times that amount to their members.
The larger revenue picture is also stark. The SEC and Big Ten have lapped the Pac-12 in overall annual distributions, which include all media rights, plus postseason football and NCAA tournament dollars.
Hotline projections for FY18 distributions:
Big Ten: $51.1 million
SEC: $45+ million
Pac-12: $32.5 million
…
“This is a concern of the Pac-12 presidents and I can tell you it’s a large discussion point with meetings with the commissioner at every single meeting,” Schulz added.
“Because everybody needs these revenues to be competitive, not just within the Pac-12, but hey, the Pac-12 schools have got to be competitive with ACC, the SEC and the Big Ten and Big 12, and we’re falling behind.”
It’s big news if the P12 presidents are starting to be unhappy. Most of them have only recently taken over at their schools, so maybe the new group have higher expectations than the older group did.
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Rutgers was scheduled to receive about $11 million from the B1G next year. Now it appears that they are budgeting $25 million. That still leaves the RU athletic dept losing a good chunk, but it is getting closer.
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Wow, that’s a huge jump. Where did you see/hear that?
The old projected numbers:
2017-18: $11.6M
2018-19: $14.9M
2019-20: $19.3M
2020-21: full share
Maybe the new TV deal exceeded expectations enough that RU and UMD are getting more, but more than doubling is amazing.
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WSU new prez just ran off the best AD they could hope for, and supposedly had difficulties with the Ath Dept at KSU. A school in a conf with no conf network. Perhaps not the leading light Wilner thinks he is.
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Is Wilner not supposed to report when a university president says something like that? The quotes claim that more than just the WSU president are concerned. That’s big news if true.
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The proposal that the presidents rejected (11-0, WSU prez not yet filled) just a year or two ago, and the statement of Crow or Ray that certainly they would like prefer higher revenue indicates the concern isn’t new or surprising. Efforts made even in the last couple years have been deemed not acceptable to the current group, not the ceo’s From the past that Wilner keeps referencing. Yes, report what a prez says. But no, I don’t think the newby is breaking any new ground. Had Ray or Crow newly framed what they have previously stated in that manner the change would be notable, yet not extraordinary.
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I see a sizable gap between those two saying they’d like more money (who wouldn’t?) and how Schulz spoke.
On a related note:
On university presidents’ “concern” about the Pac-12 Networks: Never realistic that the PAC12 network would be able to replicate revenue generated by Big Ten or the SEC. can it generate more $ than ACC?
— @paul_raich October 19, 2017
My response: Totally agree, but the issue isn’t whether the Pac12Nets should be delivering revenue comparable to its Big Ten and SEC counterparts. It’s whether the schools have a reasonable right to expect more than $2.5 million by Year Five. And they did.
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Brian:
Understandable, but a prez 15+ months in the conference is not who I’d be looking to for understanding how a conference’s leaders rumination over a long term investment decision is leaning, in either direction.
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Agreed, except he’s in the meetings and we aren’t. If he says it’s a concern and they are discussing it regularly, I have to take him at his word. He may well be wrong but he’s the one with first person knowledge of what’s being said and what at least 1 president thinks.
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It’s not college football, but’s here’s some MLB expansion/realignment speculation.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/columnists/expansion-trigger-realignment-longer-postseason/#39ZwQFszRbkjfj2k.97
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Here’s my proposal that I inlcuded in the comments section of the Baseball America column. As an Orioles fan, it’s a little self-serving as we won’t have to play the Evil Empire and Evil Empire 2.0 (Boston) for almost a quarter of the season. With the advent of two wild card teams in each league, I think more of a balanced schedule is important. Until the 90s, MLB always have a balanced schedule.
I’m not sold on Montreal and Portland as the best expansion candidates either. I think New Jersey, Nashville, and Charlotte should also receive serious consideration. Tampa Bay should probably move to Orlando. While the A’s have picked a site for a new stadium in Oakland, it’s by no means a done deal. The Giants need to let the A’s move to San Jose.
“How about keeping the AL and the NL but do away with divisions?
Move Houston back to the NL and Milwaukee to the AL.
Expansion Montreal goes to the NL and expansion Portland goes to the AL.
15 intra-league teams x 8 games (4 games home and away) = 120 games
7 inter-league teams x 4 games (alternating AL home in even years, NL home in odd years) = 28 games [BONUS – teams get to visit every ballpark within a four year period]
1 inter-league rival x 6 games (3 games home and away) = 6
Then you get back to the pre-expansion era 154 game schedule that is basically balanced.
I think the math works.
Keep the playoffs basically the same:
1. Top three teams in each league advance to divisional play.
2. The 4th and 5th place teams meet in a one game playoff.
Inter-league rivals
AL v. NL
NYY v. NYM
Wash v. Balt
Toronto v. Montreal
TB v. Miami
Cleve v. Cincy
Boston v. Philly
Milw v. Atl – Braves used to be in Milwaukee
Det v. Pitt – close geographically
Oak v. SF
LAA v. LAD
KC v. St. L
Tex v. Hou
ChiSox v. ChiCubs
Seattle v. SD – awkward
Port v. Ariz – awkward
Minn v. Col – awkward”
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Alan,
Going to 32 seems obvious. I’d be amazed if they dropped the AL and NL, though. They’d never get consensus on which set of rules to play.
My tendency would be to keep divisions.
Maybe something like this:
AL
East – Montreal, Toronto, Boston, NYY
North – Detroit, MSP, CWS, Cleveland
Central – Colorado, KC, Texas, Houston
West – Seattle, Portland, Oakland, LAA
NL
East – NYM, Phillies, DC, Baltimore
Central – STL, CHC, Milwaukee, Cincinnati?
South – Miami, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Pittsburgh?
West – SF, LAD, SD, AZ
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How about cutting MLB back to the original eight teams per league in the original cities? Welcome back Boston Braves!
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Keep the AL and NL at their respective original 8, and put the expansion teams, starting with the 1961/62 Angels/Rangers/Astros/Mets into a Continental League and Federal League (both names of failed MLB competitors). The top 8, league winners plus 4 at-large can be in the playoffs.
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I’d flip-flop Cincy with Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has a little more history with STL/CHC back from the old NL east. Cincy would be linked to ATL (one could say CIN-ATL is northern Kentucky v. eastern Tennessee, especially after the Braves move to the north Perimeter) and TB via I-75, though MIA would be a stretch.
Also, with 4 divisions in each league, you have a much greater chance of a sub-.500 division winner getting into any playoffs at the expense of a few >.500 teams in more competitive divisions. Baseball has had 84 and 82 game winners in the LCS, but never a sub .500 (>81 wins) team in its post season (the 1994 Rangers at 52-62, had the playoffs been commenced after a strike settlement would have been the one example)
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Urban – that’s why I do away with divisions and keep the leagues.
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AL champ vs NL champ (ie: best reg season record)
What a radical concept.
I vote yes.
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urbanleftbehind,
“I’d flip-flop Cincy with Pittsburgh.”
I was undecided between the two, obviously. It would’ve been much simpler if there was 1 more southern team.
“Also, with 4 divisions in each league, you have a much greater chance of a sub-.500 division winner getting into any playoffs at the expense of a few >.500 teams in more competitive divisions. Baseball has had 84 and 82 game winners in the LCS, but never a sub .500 (>81 wins) team in its post season (the 1994 Rangers at 52-62, had the playoffs been commenced after a strike settlement would have been the one example)”
True, but that leaves several options:
1. Just use the divisions for scheduling (reduces travel and keeps regional rivalries) but take the top 6 records.
2. Let the wildcard knock out the sub-0.500 champ.
3. Go to 8 teams per league in the playoffs and seed purely by record but the 4 division champs do get in.
I went with 4 divisions for the symmetry. The NFL has made it work just fine.
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“The NFL has made it work just fine.”
If you don’t mind a meaningless regular season. MLB doesn’t have huge national tv contract. Each team much more dependent on regional support, in attendance and broadcast revenue. In some respect mlb closer to CFB than nfl.
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ccrider55,
By “it” I meant having 4 divisions per conference in a league of 32 teams. Nothing more.
“If you don’t mind a meaningless regular season.”
MLB’s is more meaningless than any other sport right now. All those freaking games and wildcards win the World Series 30% of the time over the past 20 years including 3 straight. A wildcard made the WS 6 straight seasons.
“MLB doesn’t have huge national tv contract. Each team much more dependent on regional support, in attendance and broadcast revenue. In some respect mlb closer to CFB than nfl.”
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/39362362//
MLB currently has an 8-year, $12.4B set of national TV deals. That’s $51.7M per team per year on average. That’s fairly large. That’s more than most teams make from their local deals.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-teams/
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Ball park (😁) estimates of 30k attendance avg times apron $40-50 ticket avg over 80 games gives neighborhood of $100-120M. Add parking, merchandise, concessions, etc. plus regional radio and tv? Local/Regional interest seems a dominant financial concern.
If you have to have divisions make them eights. And if you say we can’t reduce playoffs just LCS’s I say two wild cards in each league. Ditch the one and done wc round but have seven game divisional round so all the playoffs and World Series operate with same rules.
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ccrider55,
“Ball park (😁) estimates of 30k attendance avg times apron $40-50 ticket avg over 80 games gives neighborhood of $100-120M.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/media/the-7-most-and-least-expensive-stadiums-to-watch-a-major-league-baseball-game/
The average price in 2016 was $41.41 for 2 tickets, so cut your total in half ($50M).
“Add parking, merchandise, concessions, etc. plus regional radio and tv?”
Those other things outside of media add up to another $50M or so.
“Local/Regional interest seems a dominant financial concern.”
It’s important, sure. I didn’t argue that. You said their national TV deal wasn’t huge and I consider $50M per team per year pretty big. It’s on par with their local TV deals (bigger than most) and parking/concession revenue.
I consider the B10’s conference payout ($50M) huge and it’s a similar fraction of OSU’s athletic budget.
“If you have to have divisions make them eights.”
I just did 4 for scheduling purposes. I’m not saying you need to use them for playoffs. Treat them as pods within a larger division if you want. I don’t really care how MLB structures their playoffs. 2 divisions of eight would work, too.
But wouldn’t MLB expand the playoff from 10 to 12 teams when they expand to 32 total teams anyway? If so, 4 division champs plus 2 wildcards seems fine to me. That gives you more teams getting in for winning something. 2 champs and 4 wildcards sounds weak.
“And if you say we can’t reduce playoffs just LCS’s I say two wild cards in each league.”
Wouldn’t that still reduce it to 4 teams in each league? I don’t see MLB sacrificing postseason games, especially if they shorten the regular season.
“Ditch the one and done wc round but have seven game divisional round so all the playoffs and World Series operate with same rules.”
Fine with me.
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I used Forbes and ball parked a midpoint on prices.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2017/03/22/baseball-ticket-prices-for-every-team-cubs-top-mlb-at-151-graphic/amp/
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Last thing they need is another NY area team.
If you consider LA-Riverside, Cincinnati-Dayton and Cleveland-Akron one metro area, 27 of the 30 teams have metro populations over 2.7 million and Montreal (4 million) is the only US/Canadian metro over 2.7 million not to have a team.
Pittsburg is 2.342 million, Kansas City 2.104 and Milwaukee (but it really “owns” some Chicago suburbs) 1.572 million.
The 10 largest areas without teams are:
Charlotte 2.474 million
Vancouver 2.463
Orlando 2.441
San Antonio 2.430
Portland 2.425
Sacramento 2.296
Las Vegas 2.156
Austin 2.056
Columbus 2.041
Indianapolis 2.004
Charlotte, with Greensboro (756k) 90 miles, Greenville, SC (885k) 100 miles and Raleigh (1302k) weekend driving distance, and San Antonio, with Austin only 80 miles away, seem like better bets than Portland. Orlando is too close to Tampa, Sacramento is too close to Oakland, Columbus is too close to Cincinnati and Las Vegas is too close to the bookmakers, so there really aren’t a lot of good alternatives. Just Montreal, Charlotte, San Antonio and Portland.
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I also do not think that NJ needs a team. South Jersey has the Phillies and North Jersey has both the Yanks and Mets. Northern and Central NJ are close to 6 million people, but I am not aware of any move to bring a major leagues team. I now live in FL, but when I was in North Jersey, I was within about 25 miles of two NFL teams, two MLB teams, two NBA teams, three NHL teams, and two pro soccer teams. Enough already.
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/101917aab.html
It’s official. The B10 is moving to 20 games starting with the 2018-19 season (WBB will be 18). They also will lock the 3 in-state rivalries and play regional rivalries (NE/WI/IA/MN, OSU/PSU/RU/UMD) more than other games (rotate through playing each regional foe twice).
Under the new men’s format, teams will play seven opponents twice and six teams once (three home, three away) in a given season. The three in-state rivalries – Illinois/Northwestern, Indiana/Purdue and Michigan/Michigan State – will be played twice annually, while the new schedule will also include a regional component to increase the frequency of games among teams in similar areas. Over the course of a six-year cycle (12 playing opportunities), in-state rivals will play each other 12 times, regional opponents will play 10 times, and all other teams will play nine times.
The updated women’s format will feature 18 conference games that will allow teams to play five opponents twice and eight teams once (four home, four away) each season. A similar model that emphasizes in-state rivalries and competition between regional opponents will also be implemented for the new women’s schedule.
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We’re getting to that time of year when true CFP elimination games start to happen.
I’ll define CFP candidates at P5 teams with 0 or 1 loss and undefeated G5 teams (or non-ND independents). 2-loss P5 conference champions aren’t technically eliminated, but I won’t list them unless the number of 1-loss teams gets very low and/or until that team clinches a CCG spot.
Candidates = 22
Undefeated (in bold) = 8
ACC (5):
A – Clemson, NCSU
C – Miami, UVA, VT
B10 (5):
E – PSU, OSU, MI, MSU
W – WI
B12 (3):
TCU, OU, OkSU
P12 (3):
N – UW, WSU
S – USC
SEC (3):
E – UGA, UK
W – AL
Other (3):
USF, UCF, ND
Elimination games this week:
USC @ ND (ND -3.5; 538.com says ND wins 65% of the time)
Other big games:
MI @ PSU (PSU -9.5; 538.com says PSU wins 82% of the time)
OkSU @ UT (OkSU -7; 538.com says OkSU wins 62% of the time)
IN @ MSU (MSU -6; 538.com says MSU wins 63% of the time)
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21094009/rutgers-maryland-scheduled-matchup-yankee-stadium-needs-moved-due-yankees-postseason-run
Due to the Yankees’ playoff run, the UMD @ RU game is moving back to campus. A lot of RU fans will be happy.
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And now that seems a tad premature.
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Don’t blame the Yankees for this. Rutgers apparently had 750,000 reasons ($$$) to move the event out of the Bronx: https://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps-football/2017/10/23/16517820/rutgers-battle-bronx-move-analysis-yankee-stadium-refund
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That is speculation by the Maryland blogger. Every single published report says that the game had to be moved because of the Yankees post season. Is Rutgers happy about that – probably. Are RU fans who would attend very happy – definitely. http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/news/yankees-postseason-run-rutgers-maryland-football-game-moves-yankee-stadium-piscataway/yre9qofy3slc16b6z8wutvne3
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Courtesy of Frank’s twitter:
According to an “official” in Illinois’ AD, expect IL to add varsity hockey within 5 years. There must be a big donation in the works.
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Boring poll weekend with no significant upsets.
http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
The only changes in the top 10 were Clemson moving up to #7 while Miami dropped to #8 and ND becoming #10 while USC dropped to #21. The top P12 team is #11 UW.
B10:
2. PSU
5. WI
6. OSU
18. MSU
25. MI
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
The only changeS in the top 10 were ND moving up to #9 while OU dropped to #10. The top P12 team is #12 UW.
B10:
2. PSU
5. WI
6. OSU
16. MSU
27. MI
We did lose a few CFP contenders, though.
Candidates = 18
Undefeated (in bold) = 8
ACC (4):
A – Clemson, NCSU
C – Miami, VT
B10 (4):
E – PSU, OSU, MSU
W – WI
B12 (3):
TCU, OU, OkSU
P12 (2):
N – UW, WSU
S – none
SEC (2):
E – UGA
W – AL
Other (3):
USF, UCF, ND
Elimination games this week:
NCSU @ ND (538.com says ND wins 72% of the time)
Other big games:
PSU @ OSU (538.com says OSU wins 59% of the time)
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 69%
2. UGA – 39%
3. PSU – 37%
4. WI – 34%
5. OSU – 33%
6. Clemson – 31%
7. TCU – 29%
8. UW – 24%
9. OU – 22%
10. Miami – 20%
11. OkSU – 13%
The SEC and B10 seem almost guaranteed spots with the top 5 teams in terms of likelihood while the P12 seems to be in trouble, but there are a lot of games to play.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
The ACC, B12 and P12 have no reasonable chances to get 2 teams in. Neither does the B10, frankly. The one plausible option is 12-0 UGA beating 12-0 AL in the SECCG.
If UGA wins out, AL has a 32% chance to make it (2nd team in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
If AL wins out, UGA has an 17% chance to make it (10th in likelihood).
If WI wins out, PSU has a 16% chance to make it (9th in likelihood).
If OSU wins out, WI and PSU each have a 10% chance to make it (10th in likelihood).
If PSU wins out, WI has an 8% chance to make it (11th in likelihood).
The moral of the story is that people should root for UGA (and/or AL) to lose a game before the CCG. That would eliminate the 2 SEC teams scenario.
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 29%
OSU – 11%
PSU – 10%
UGA – 9%
Clemson – 7%
WI – 7%
TCU – 5%
UW – 5%
OU – 5%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 15% or higher):
AL – 38%
UCF – 32%
OSU – 27%
UW – 24%
Clemson – 22%
ND – 21%
PSU – 21%
WI – 19%
UL – 18%
OU – 15%
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http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2017/10/rutgers_unveils_financial_plan_how_the_big_ten_is.html
More details on how RU is getting boosted payouts from the B10.
According to the university’s 10-year projections document in 2012, the Big Ten was expected to give Rutgers $11.2 million in 2017, $11.5 million in 2018, $14.9 million in 2019 and $19.3 million in 2020.
Rutgers’ new five-year projections plan shows a dramatic increase in those figures. The Big Ten is now expected to give Rutgers $12.6 million in 2017, $24.6 million in 2018, $27.1 million in 2019 and $29.4 million in 2020.
Since full-share schools are set to receive $51.1 million from the Big Ten this year, it’s fair to assume that conference-distribution number will only increase in 2021.
However, Rutgers won’t receive that much.
Rutgers’ first full-share check from the Big Ten is projected to be $44.5 million.
“You can see by this updated set of numbers that we are creating a more rational on-ramp to full Big Ten (full-share) partnership,’’ Hobbs said, “by advancing some of our future Big Ten distributions into the next three budget years.’’
Rutgers’ new conference-revenue plan is not unlike the one Maryland reportedly agreed to when the university joined the Big Ten with Rutgers in 2012. The Big Ten’s intent was to keep both Rutgers and Maryland at the level of conference support that they had in their previous league.
RU will also drop to $0 in direct institutional support for the AD in 2021 when their payout jumps to $44.5M. They’ll still get over $12M in student fees but no more money from the academic side.
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And now we know that there are at least two teams in the B1G worse than Rutgers. Once they start getting real money and a real coach to go with their recruiting area, they should make a few more teams miserable.
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RU can start winning when they keep their local players. Saquon Barkely of PSU and a leading candidate for the Heisman was a Rutgers commit. Jonathan Taylor, UWisc star frosh running back was an RU commit, etc., etc. Maybe with a real coach they (and others) stay. The potential is there.
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Bob Sykes,
“And now we know that there are at least two teams in the B1G worse than Rutgers. Once they start getting real money and a real coach to go with their recruiting area, they should make a few more teams miserable.”
I don’t think that’s fair to Chris Ash. He’s young, but I don’t think he’s doing a terrible job. He just hasn’t had much to work with. Give him another couple of years to see what he can do at RU.
IL provides an example that just having the money doesn’t guarantee success. PU looks like it might be improving under Brohm, though.
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The issue with Ash is whether players seem to be getting better and buying in to his coaching. He has at least two more years, so we shall see. Meanwhile, this years potential recruiting class is terrible.
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The games have been closer this year including 2 wins, so maybe he’s improving them.
As for the recruiting class, it’s too early to be sure how it will turn out. It’s better than the 2016 class right now but worse than last year’s. RU is on par with IL, IN and PU in recruiting so far. That’s the bottom of the B10 (other P5s have a similar bottom) but it’s not embarrassing. That’s about all you can expect with RU’s season last year. As Ash gets more wins, the recruiting will improve.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2017/10/24/jim-harbaugh-michigan-college-football-playoff/795746001/
Dan Wolken wrote about how hard the MI job is.
But understand this: If Harbaugh decides one day that he can’t get it done at his alma mater, it will say far more about Michigan than any failure on the part of Coach Khaki.
For all the coaching miracles Harbaugh has performed in his career, there is no podcast or trip to Rome that can fundamentally change the reality that Michigan is one of the most difficult jobs among a small group of bluebloods that aspire to win national titles.
And if Harbaugh doesn’t do it, it’s unlikely anyone in our lifetimes will.
Though the elitism and arrogance built into the Michigan brand suggests otherwise, there’s nothing Harbaugh can do about decades of built-in disadvantages in recruiting or the lack of relevant history to support Michigan’s claim as a national power.
…
In other words, if Harbaugh eventually gets Michigan into the College Football Playoff, it will be an achievement built on raising the program above its recent history and current limitations, not a fulfillment of nostalgia that no longer represents reality.
Michigan can always be a good program, but isn’t it obvious by now how hard it is to build it into a great one?
…
If you can squint past the showmanship, it’s obvious that Harbaugh’s circus tricks are less about his ego and more about survival in a sport that no longer gives Michigan many advantages.
…
This is the last, best shot for Michigan to convince the rest of college football it’s still a legitimate player. If it doesn’t work, the image of failure for Michigan won’t be Harbaugh, it will be a long look in the mirror.
If that’s true for UofM, what does it say about Nebraska?
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/10/23/penn-state-big-ten-expansion-history
SI is commemorating PSU’s 25th season in the B10 this year. They have a special issue out but also had this article by a PSU alumnus about how well adding PSU has worked out for both sides.
“I don’t think there’s any doubt that it was the right decision then, the right decision now,” says Jim Delany, who has been Big Ten commissioner since 1989, “and that while there has been a lot of conference expansion since, I’m not sure there has ever been a better fit or match.”
Pennsylvania was a contiguous state to Big Ten territory, and Penn State was a land-grant institution like many of the conference’s members, but its most appealing attributes were ones that would help the Big Ten grow: Its football team brought the conference a third national brand, along with Ohio State and Michigan, and Penn State was also a bridge to the East, opening up a larger media audience, a broader recruiting base and the potential for expansion.
…
Over the years the changes in major college football have confirmed the original analysis: joining a conference was a business necessity, as well as a competitive one. (Penn State’s other sports have benefitted, too: The Big Ten era hastened the construction of a new basketball arena, named after Bryce Jordan; and the Olympic sports have combined for 30 NCAA championships, more than any other Big Ten school.)
The move meant that regional rivalries like Pitt–Penn State went on hiatus for 15 years, but the Big Ten schedule quickly became the tablet on which Lions history was written.
…
At the Big Ten media days in the summer of 2017, Delany called the Sandusky case and its aftermath the “most difficult set of circumstances” he’d been confronted with, but he also commended Penn State’s road back. “They’ve got great leadership, great players,” he said, “and we’re really happy that they’ve gotten to the other side, if you will, after five years.”
Today, in the age of super-conferences, the Big Ten’s further expansion seems inevitable. But for two decades, Penn State had stood alone as the 11th and final member of the Big Ten. There had been a temporary moratorium on further expansion after Penn State was added, but in 2011, Nebraska joined. In ’14 came two more Eastern neighbors, Rutgers and Maryland. The clever Big Ten logo the conference commissioned when Penn State joined—the one with the “11” tucked in—was replaced with “B1G.”
Each subsequent expansion of the Big Ten may have been easier—but in the landscape of college football, not more significant than adding Penn State 25 years ago.
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Joining the Big Ten has redefined Penn State as a full-fledged big-time athletic school, not one solely associated with football. Look at all its NCAA volleyball — men’s and women’s (pretty remarkable for a school in the middle of Pennsylvania) — and wrestling titles. And without PSU in the B1G, Maryland and Rutgers probably aren’t in, either.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/look-nine-college-football-coaches-have-a-buyout-clause-of-over-20-million/
There are 9 CFB coaches with a buyout of over $20M.
One of these schools stands out:
Clemson, FSU, UW, AL, Iowa, PSU, OSU, MI, TX
We all need to hire Kirk Ferentz’s agent.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21168718/big-12-conference-start-league-play-third-week-not-fourth-2018
The B12 is moving up the start of their conference football games in 2018 by a week.
When Oklahoma plays at Iowa State next Sept. 15, it will be the third week of the regular season. That is a week earlier than the first conference games this year, and means the Sooners won’t have to wait as long to try to avenge their surprising home loss to Iowa State earlier this month.
…
The 2018 Big 12 championship game will again be played the first Saturday in December.
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Brian, I certainly hope that Frank is sharing with you the huge income from this site.
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I’m sure I get a fair split of all the internet dollars that are pouring in.
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Weren’t you donating it to the rehabilitation of depressed Wolverines fund?
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A minor issue for the P12N is hurting the exposure for P12 players. The P12N doesn’t have a content-sharing agreement with CBSSN, so CBSSN won’t show any highlights of games shown on P12N. That means every game Khalil Tate has started at AZ this season and also Bryce Love’s 301 yard game against ASU. Considering CBSSN is in more homes than the P12N, you’d think they would already have a deal in place.
Arizona is on the Pac-12 Networks for the fourth consecutive game, a stretch that covers the entirety of the Khalil Tate era.
That’s a slight problem for Tate from an exposure standpoint, over and above the Pac-12 Networks’ limited distribution (approximately 20 million homes).
The Pac-12 doesn’t have a content-sharing agreement with CBS Sports Network, which means CBSSN can’t show highlights of games on the Pac12Nets without paying a fee. And it’s not paying the fee when it can show highlights from games on other networks (ESPN and Fox) for free.
Former Pac-12 coach and Pac12Nets analyst Rick Neuheisel hosts the ‘Inside College Football’ show on CBSSN. He voiced frustration with the Pac12Nets situation on his Sirius XM radio show earlier in the week, then spoke to the Hotline on Thursday.
Neuheisel explained that he wanted to promote Tate and show highlights from recent games but was told by “the brass” that Tate highlights were a non-starter because of the lack of a content-sharing plan with the Pac12Nets.
So the show aborted the plan to promote Tate and went in another direction.
All three of Tate’s games thus far have been on the Pac-12 Networks.
“Tate is out,” Neuheisel said. “If you’re watching our show, you don’t know who Khalil Tate is.”
The Pac-12 has content-sharing plans with ESPN and Fox, but not with CBS Sports Network, which is in approximately 50 million homes. That would be significant exposure for a player … for a program … for a conference … that needs it.
And the top college football show on a network in 50 million homes counts as one of its primary analysts a former Pac-12 coach who is looking for reasons to promote players from the conference.
“I’m a west coast guy, I want to show the stuff that’s going on out there, because I know it’s good football,” he said. “But if it’s on the Pac-12 Networks, we’re out of luck. It makes no sense.”
There’s more:
Neuheisel also told me that he wanted to promote Bryce Love on a recent show and use highlights from Love’s 301-yard performance against Arizona State, but he couldn’t for the same reason:
The game was on the Pac12Nets, so highlights were not available. The show dropped the segment on Love.
Will the specific issue with CBSSN cost Love the Heisman or Tate a career-changing opportunity? No, this isn’t a red-alert situation. But the Pac-12 should address the matter in the offseason.
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Agree they would benefit from an agreement with CBS. However did they need to dump a highlight of Love?
Matt Sarzyniak
Matt Sarzyniak
@mattsarz
Coming back to this though…CBSSN did have Stanford at San Diego St. Could they not use a 13 carry, 184 yard game they broadcast?
Jon Wilner
Jon Wilner
@wilnerhotline
they could have, yes.
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I assume it was a matter of timing. The ASU game was much more recent. He could’ve used the older highlights but wanted to talk about his recent great performance and couldn’t.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/penn-state-is-playing-its-biggest-game-in-20-years/
538 looked at every regular season B10 game since PSU joined in 1993 and found the top 20 for combined Elo rankings at kickoff for the 2 teams. Tomorrow’s PSU @ OSU game is #8.
For comparison sake, 1500 is considered average. The 20 games listed range from 3773 to 4032 for combined totals.
OSU played in 16 of the 20, MI in 11, PSU in 6 (last in 2008), MSU/PU/WI in 2 each and IA in 1. OSU vs MI accounts for 8 of the 20 games and OSU/PSU for 4 with 8 other matchups that occur only once each.
1997 had 4 of the 20. 1996 had 3 games. 1999, 2003, 2015 and 2016 had 2 games each. 1998, 2002, 2006, 2008 and 2017 had 1 each. This shows how strong the B10 was in the late 90s with 10 of the top 20 games happening from 1996-1999. There’s also the recent revival with 5 of the top 20 in 2015-2017. As a B10 fan should know, the B10 was down from 2000-2014 despite 2 national titles by OSU.
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Another Friday night surprise: Florida State is now 2-5 after being hammered 35-3 at Boston College. (BC is 5-4.) After Southern Cal and Clemson fell on the road on Friday nights, I’m sensing kings simply don’t like playing on that evening. Jimbo Fisher is in big trouble, no matter how much Bowden defends him.
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I don’t think he’s in any trouble at all. His starting QB got hurt in week 1 and the backup is a true freshman. He was 78-17 in the previous 7 seasons (11.1-2.4) with the worst being a 9-4 year. Fans will bitch but give him a mulligan in the end.
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This was a huge weekend of upsets in CFB and the night games haven’t started yet. OSU comes back to beat #2 PSU. #4 TCU loses at ISU – that’s 2 top 5 wins for ISU in one season and they lead the B12 along with OkSU. That should make things even more interesting on Tuesday when the first CFP rankings come out.
My guess at the polls:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. WI
5. Miami
6. ND
7. PSU
8. Clemson
9. OU
10. TCU
OSU might be lower because they have a loss while WI and Miami don’t, but OSU had the much better win and was already ahead of them. I think the CFP rankings will jumble things a lot as they consider the resumes more carefully.
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Just as Washington State’s recent unexpected success led its AD to Nebraska, might Iowa State’s surprise season boost its AD, Jamie Pollard, into contention for jobs elsewhere? Remember, in the ’90s he was an assistant AD to Debbie Yow at Maryland.
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It may just cost them their coach.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/every-single-player-in-tennessee-vs-kentucky-got-a-personal-foul-on-one-play/
After a scuffle that followed a kickoff, the refs called personal fouls on every player on both TN and UK. That’s interesting because after 2 of those penalties you get ejected. What would the refs do if there was another scuffle? Kick out every player and cancel the game?
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The polls don’t really matter anymore with the CFP rankings coming out Tuesday, but here they are:
http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
1. AL
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. WI
5. Clemson
6. Miami
7. PSU
8. ND
9. OU
10. OkSU
24. MI
26. MSU
http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
1. AL
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. WI
5. ND
6. Clemson
7. PSU
8. OU
9. Miami
10. TCU
24. MSU
27. MI
The AP has ND 3 spots higher and Miami 3 spots lower. Otherwise, they are pretty similar.
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We lost a few more CFP contenders.
Candidates = 14
Undefeated (in bold) = 5
ACC (3):
A – Clemson
C – Miami, VT
B10 (3):
E – PSU, OSU
W – WI
B12 (3):
TCU, OU, OkSU
P12 (1):
N – UW
S – none
SEC (2):
E – UGA
W – AL
Other (2):
UCF, ND
Elimination games this week:
OU @ OkSU (538.com says OU wins 53% of the time)
Other big/good games:
VT @ Miami (538.com says Miami wins 54% of the time)
ISU @ WV (538.com says ISU wins 56% of the time)
NW @ NE (538.com says NW wins 58% of the time)
Stanford @ WSU (538.com says Stanford wins 60% of the time)
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions
538 will adjust their predictions after the CFP rankings come out, but here’s where things stand now.
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 65%
2. OSU – 52%
3. UGA – 51%
4. Clemson – 40%
5. WI – 32%
6. UW – 26%
7. OU – 24%
8. ND – 18%
9. OkSU – 17%
10. Miami – 17%
The SEC and B10 seem almost guaranteed spots with 4 of the top 5 teams in terms of likelihood while the B12 and P12 seem to be in trouble, but there are a lot of games to play. ND is a legitimate threat to make it if they win out.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
The one plausible option is 12-0 UGA meeting 12-0 AL in the SECCG.
If UGA wins out, AL has a 32% chance to make it (4th team in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
If AL wins out, UGA has an 17% chance to make it (6th in likelihood).
The moral of the story is that people should root for UGA (and/or AL) to lose a game before the CCG. That would eliminate the 2 SEC teams scenario.
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 27%
OSU – 17%
UGA – 13%
Clemson – 9%
WI – 6%
UW – 5%
OU – 5%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 20% or higher):
PSU – 68%
OSU – 44%
AL – 33%
UCF – 33%
ND – 32%
UW – 29%
NW – 27%
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The OSU/PSU game brought FOX their best ever rating for a regular season CFB game.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21215201/florida-gators-head-coach-jim-mcelwain-part-ways
UF’s Jim McElwain became the first major coaching domino to fall this year. We may see a bunch more over the next month now that there is a December signing date.
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“…now that there is a December signing date.”
Example of disruptive unintended consequence of a rule change?
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ccrider55,
“Example of disruptive unintended consequence of a rule change?”
Possibly. Obviously it’s too soon to tell. The issues at UF have been brewing for over a year, so this wasn’t a snap decision. TN hasn’t fired Butch Jones yet and they certainly could justify it. Some “experts” have predicted we will see a lot more early firings but it hasn’t happened yet.
The signing period is just before Christmas, so maybe schools will still fire coaches around Thanksgiving and figure that gives an interim guy enough time to persuade recruits to just wait until February to sign.
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Does the B1G need to seriously consider a realignment of its divisions? Unless there is a somewhat dramatic change soon, Wisconsin looks like the annual favorite in the West, while there are at least 3 top teams in East, and, with Michigan State, perhaps four.
This may help the Badgers (and I am a Badgers fan), but is it good for the league? I know that my oldest son (UW-Madison alum) is quite happy with the divisions.
The situation this year does not look like an aberration to me. Which team in the West looks like it is having a bad year, but otherwise can expect an annual top 10 national ranking? Nebraska? Iowa? I do not think so. I personally do not expect Nebraska to ever return to its glory years and Iowa will have a occasional great year, but that is it. Northwestern? Not likely.
Is it fair to OSU, PSU, Michigan, and maybe Michigan State, to have to fight each other for a playoff conversation?
It is also not great for the bottom teams in the East. Will Maryland, Indiana and Rutgers lose out on bowls (or go to very low level bowls) only because they are in the East? Will Michigan State frequently have some very good teams, but get hammered by being in the East?
Do I think that a possible realignment will happen any time soon? No, of course not.
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This is a case for not straying from Legends and Leaders (maybe changed to Lakes and Valley or something else), and doing a 1 for 2 – Wisconsin in the Lakes in exchange for both MD and Rutgers going to the Valley.
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Who’d join the Badgers in the flip? Purdue? Illinois?
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Jersey Bernie,
“Does the B1G need to seriously consider a realignment of its divisions? Unless there is a somewhat dramatic change soon, Wisconsin looks like the annual favorite in the West, while there are at least 3 top teams in East, and, with Michigan State, perhaps four.
This may help the Badgers (and I am a Badgers fan), but is it good for the league? I know that my oldest son (UW-Madison alum) is quite happy with the divisions.
The situation this year does not look like an aberration to me. Which team in the West looks like it is having a bad year, but otherwise can expect an annual top 10 national ranking? Nebraska? Iowa? I do not think so. I personally do not expect Nebraska to ever return to its glory years and Iowa will have a occasional great year, but that is it. Northwestern? Not likely.
Is it fair to OSU, PSU, Michigan, and maybe Michigan State, to have to fight each other for a playoff conversation?
It is also not great for the bottom teams in the East. Will Maryland, Indiana and Rutgers lose out on bowls (or go to very low level bowls) only because they are in the East? Will Michigan State frequently have some very good teams, but get hammered by being in the East?
Do I think that a possible realignment will happen any time soon? No, of course not.”
Let’s remember that the main purpose of divisions is to allow a CCG money grab. The current divisions allow that and it will almost always have playoff implications.
If the B10’s main purpose was to develop a fair way to determine the best team in the B10, then yes they need to change the divisions. What you describe are all the problems with a geographic split that doubters like me pointed out before the new divisions were made. On the other hand, it’s very easy for fans to remember which team is where and almost all the rivalries were preserved. We also can’t be sure who will be good in the future. MSU has risen to unexpected heights under Dantonio. Certainly Iowa or Nebraska could do the same.
Of course the current alignment isn’t fair for the teams in the East, especially the bottom teams. On the other hand, most of those games were desired for other reasons anyway (rivalries, regional rivalries, getting big brands into the new markets, etc). How much does being fair matter? Remember, the B10 is using parity-based scheduling that forces tougher schedules on the top teams which is intentionally unfair.
Possible solutions:
1. Ignore the problems
2. Realign with an emphasis on competitive balance like the old divisions had. Ignore all the fan complaints that result.
3. Try a new geographic alignment that preserves rivalries but is more balanced. Inner vs Outer had this effect and wasn’t as bad for travel as people thought.
4. Drop divisions entirely. This requires getting the NCAA rules changed to keep the CCG but allows preserving rivalries without forcing slanted schedules.
I’m guessing the B10 chooses option 1 for at least a decade. By the end of the current TV deal, the current divisions will have been in place for 9 years. If the East gets to 6-1 with multiple big wins, the B10 might consider a change before signing new deals. So far the games have mostly been close and featured 2 highly ranked teams. The real concern for the B10 would be if WI falls off and the West champion is winning 9 games at most every year.
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To me the biggest issue here is maintaining rivalries, not competitive balance. If you try to that you are always chasing it. There was a time when the SEC looked unfair with Tennessee and Florida in the same division. Now the SEC west looks unfair. The ACC tried to ignore geography and go for balance and it was a disaster. Things move around. Clearly it was hoped that Nebraska would be an anchor in the West. Maybe it will, maybe Illinois finally takes advantage of some of its inherent positions, maybe Texas or Oklahoma is added. Things will work out, but once rivalries are gone for a generation of students, they are hard to restore.
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drwillini,
“To me the biggest issue here is maintaining rivalries, not competitive balance.”
There’s no reason not to seek both. Competitive balance is important to the top programs and their national success. It’s also important to the programs borderline for making bowls every year, like IN being stuck in the East with 3-4 almost annual losses built in while PU gets a much easier slate.
“If you try to that you are always chasing it.”
I don’t buy that. Nobody is saying they have to chase perfect balance. But looking to see if there is a split more likely to provide decent balance while maintaining rivalries isn’t too much to ask. Everyone predicted this imbalance before we even started playing with these new divisions, so it’s not impossible to foresee. They put the best programs and the best recruiting grounds on one side.
“There was a time when the SEC looked unfair with Tennessee and Florida in the same division. Now the SEC west looks unfair.”
Yes, at a time when AL was unusually down. That’s not the B10’s issue. The programs are performing largely as expected right now and that greatly favors the East. When the SEC programs perform to their norms, they have balance. The B10 should seek a similar split if it exists, and I believe Inner vs Outer is that better split. of course dropping divisions entirely would be even better.
“The ACC tried to ignore geography and go for balance and it was a disaster.”
The ACC had little choice with their football power being in the South plus NC being in the middle and having to be split.
North = BC, UMD, UVA, VT, 2 NC schools
South = Miami, FSU, GT, Clemson, 2 NC schools
National titles in the past 50 years:
North = 0
South = 11
ACC titles all time:
North = 15
South = 33
NC schools = 21 (7/7/5/2)
“Clearly it was hoped that Nebraska would be an anchor in the West. Maybe it will, maybe Illinois finally takes advantage of some of its inherent positions, maybe Texas or Oklahoma is added.”
Historical success:
OSU > NE
MI > WI
PSU > IA
MSU > West #4 (MN?, IL?)
While it’s possible that most of the eastern powers will be down at the same time, it’s more likely for the west based on the past. If WI wasn’t performing well above their historical norm, the West would be a basket case right now. A few years isn’t a big deal, but this could be a long term problem based on the divisional split.
“Things will work out, but once rivalries are gone for a generation of students, they are hard to restore.”
Rivalries change too. How many fans care about OSU vs IL now? MI vs MN? Nobody is advocating for dropping rivalries but it’s a fallacy to claim that East/West is the only split that maintains them.
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LAKES formerly LEGENDS: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
VALLEY formerly LEADERS: Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Another realignment could be OSU and MSU heading “west” and perhaps 2 of NU-Illinois-Wisconsin-Purdue going back into the “east”. That would be more of a Harvest – Metropolis split
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The problem with Lakes and Valley is that you have to lock OSU/MI (and NW/IL) in the final week and everyone pitched a fit over that before since a rematch is possible (though highly unlikely).
I’d also probably call it Northwest and Southeast to reinforce that it’s geographical.
The best option I’ve seen is Inner versus Outer:
Inner – OSU, MI, MSU, NW, IL, PU, IN
Outer – PSU, NE, WI, RU, IA, UMD, MN
Most of the important rivalries stay locked and the power is more balanced. The primary issue people mention is travel, so let’s look at that.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/team-travel-distances-proposed-divisions
That post has a table of the travel distance between schools as well as the average distance to the other 13 for each school.
Average distance in miles:
NW 371
PU 375
IL 387
UM 402
MSU 410
IN 416
OSU 419
WI 440
IA 467
PSU 572
MN 647
MD 666
NE 722
RU 750
The western 4 and eastern 3 have to travel more because they are so far from everyone else. That’s not fixable. But those numbers are skewed from the travel that actually happens so let’s adjust for playing 6 division games and 3 crossovers.
Average distance in current divisions (includes PU/IN being locked):
NW 332
PU 332
IL 352
WI 373
OSU 381
UM 382
IA 389
MSU 402
IN 411
PSU 490
MN 557
MD 574
NE 630
RU 654
So 9 schools are very similar (332-411) with 5 traveling more (490-654). Everyone travels slightly less (5-96 miles difference) by being in East/West than if they played everyone equally.
What if the B10 switched to Inner vs Outer?
Average distance in Inner vs Outer:
PU 306
NW 320
IL 327
UM 343
IN 346
MSU 347
OSU 360
WI 489
IA 508
PSU 605
MN 672
MD 696
NE 750
RU 771
So yes the travel burden is heavier on the outer 7 schools, but nobody travels even 50 more miles more than they would with a balanced schedule. The outer 7 schools add about 120 miles to their average road trip compared to the current divisions while the inner 7 generally drop 25-50 miles. It would be easy to do a small revenue share to help cover the travel costs.
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http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/education/article_e4b8267a-b2ad-11e7-8875-c3ca14961e7a.html
The Baton Rouge Advocate wrote a lengthy article about the history of hazing issues at LSU’s frats. The good news is that it seems like the school is serious about investigating allegations. the bad news is that the punishments are usually light and almost every frat gets in trouble.
Almost one-third of LSU’s 45 Greek organizations are in some level of reprimand, which LSU President F. King Alexander said demonstrates that the university is being proactive about disciplinary action. However, that list of Greek organizations in hot water is a revolving door, with groups being removed and added every year. Out of 27 fraternity chapters, only four had no university violations over the past five years. Roughly 90 percent of the investigations targeted fraternities, and 10 percent sororities.
This isn’t meant to call out LSU as I believe many schools have similar issues and at least LSU is trying to police their behavior.
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http://www.nwcaonline.com/penn-state-ohio-state-start-season-atop-usa-todaynwca-division-wrestling-coaches-poll/
Another great season of B10 wrestling is about to start. Here’s the preseason poll:
1. PSU
2. OSU
3. OkSU
4. MI
5. MO
6. MN
7. IA
8. NCSU
9. VT
10. Lehigh
12. RU
14. IL
15. NE
18. WI
RV. PU, IN
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings
The CFP rankings are out:
1. UGA
2. AL
3. ND
4. Clemson
5. OU
6. OSU
7. PSU
8. TCU
9. WI
10. Miami
11. OkSU
12. UW
18. UCF
24. MSU
No surprise that UGA is #1 since they have a better resume than AL so far. ND’s only loss is to UGA and they’ve had some big wins over ranked teams lately. Clemson has 2 ranked wins (#13 VT, #14 AU) but a bad loss at Syracuse (though their QB was hurt). OU has that road win over OSU but hasn’t beaten anyone else of note (their toughest games are the next 2 weeks). OSU obviously has the win over PSU while PSU has no ranked wins yet. WI and Miami are undefeated but WI hasn’t beaten anybody of note while Miami has struggled in multiple games.
The P12 is in trouble with UW their top team at #12. The B12 is going to cannibalize itself over the next few weeks (OU plays OkSU and TCU back to back) so they could be in trouble if everyone gets 2 losses. UCF is the top G5 school but they play USF to end the year so things could change quickly.
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Just based on W/L records, I made a list of CFP contenders above. Let’s compare them to the CFP rankings.
Candidates = 14
Undefeated (in bold) = 5
ACC (3):
A – 4. Clemson
C – 10. Miami, 13. VT
B10 (3):
E – 6. OSU, 7. PSU
W – 9. WI
B12 (3):
5. OU, 8. TCU, 11. OkSU
P12 (1):
N – 12. UW
S – none (highest is #17 USC)
SEC (2):
E – 1. UGA
W – 2. AL
Other (2):
3. ND, 18. UCF
Missing:
14. AU (6-2, still face 1. UGA and 2. AL)
15. ISU (6-2, still face 11. OkSU)
16. MS St (6-2, still face 2. AL)
We all know a G5 champ has essentially no chance but I will include any undefeated team on the off chance chaos happens.
AU still has a shot if they win out because their remaining schedule is so tough, but they’ve already lost to Clemson and LSU so it’s hard to imagine them beating UGA twice and AL once.
ISU has 2 great wins but also lost to Iowa and Texas. I don’t think wins over OkSU and a second win over TCU or OU would be sufficient to get them in.
MsSU has already lost to UGA and LSU and I don’t think just the AL win plus a rematch versus UGA would be enough.
In a nutshell, you can use wins and losses to trim the list pretty much every year.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions
538 has adjusted their predictions after the CFP rankings came out.
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 62%
2. UGA – 54%
3. OSU – 50%
4. Clemson – 43%
5. OU – 29%
6. ND – 25%
7. WI – 25%
8. UW – 24%
9. Miami – 15%
10. OkSU – 15%
The SEC seems almost guaranteed spots with the top 2 teams in terms of likelihood and fairly easy schedules for both coming up. The B10’s chances are still pretty good but WI is not getting much respect right now. Meanwhile the P12 seems to be in trouble, but there are a lot of games to play. ND is a legitimate threat to make it if they win out and so could OU (any other B12 champ is questionable).
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
The one plausible option is 12-0 UGA meeting 12-0 AL in the SECCG.
If AL wins out, UGA has an 30% chance to make it (4th in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
If UGA wins out, AL has a 26% chance to make it (5th team in likelihood).
The moral of the story is that people should root for UGA (and/or AL) to lose a game before the CCG. That would eliminate the 2 SEC teams scenario. Go Auburn.
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 25%
OSU – 16%
UGA – 14%
Clemson – 10%
OU – 6%
ND – 6%
UW – 5%
WI – 5%
Most likely to win out the rest of the season (everyone 20% or higher):
PSU – 67%
OSU – 44%
ND – 37%
UCF – 33%
Clemson – 33%
AL – 31%
UW – 28%
NW – 26%
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Brian – you forgot to write “Geaux Tigers!” LSU winning out could result in no SEC teams making the CFP. With only one loss in conference, if LSU wins out (including a win in the belly of the beast this weekend, ie Tuscaloosa), it goes to the SEC CCG to most likely play Georgia. If LSU beats Georgia, there’s a chance neither the Team that shall not be named nor Georgia makes it.
I know the odds are long, but this season is not over. Was it over when the Germans bombed Peal Harbor?
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Unfortunately, I think that dream dies hard this weekend. I don’t think AU has much more of a chance, but at least they play AL later in the season.
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You think?
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
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There have been bigger upsets (Howard over UNLV, App State over MI, Stanford over USC in ’07, …). 538.com give LSU an 11% chance to win.
I’d suggest LSU fans start drinking early, but that seems like a waste of breath.
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http://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll
The AP preseason hoops poll is out.
1. Duke
2. MSU
3. AZ
4. KU
5. UK
6. Villanova
7. Wichita St
8. UF
9. UNC
10. USC
15. MN
19. NW
20. PU
RV. WI, UMD, MI,
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/1/16590144/november-college-football-history
A reminder of how great (and crazy) the month of November historically is in CFB.
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Sites for the 2021-2024 National Championship sites.
2021 – Miami
2022 – Indianapolis (congrats B1G fans. Get ready for the worst blizzard in the history of Indiana)
2023 – Los Angeles (new NFL stadium)
2024 – Houston
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21253665/college-football-playoff-announces-national-championship-sites-2021-2024
Previously announced:
2017 – Atlanta
2018 – Santa Clara (49ers stadium)
2019 – New Orleans
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I can’t wait to hear the complaints from AL fans about having to witness snow.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21253665/college-football-playoff-announces-national-championship-sites-2021-2024
The CFP has announced the NCG sites for 2021-24 (the 2020-23 seasons):
2021 – Miami
2022 – Indianapolis
2023 – LA (the new NFL stadium)
2024 – Houston
That’s right, the north finally gets a CFP game. That’s 1 of 30.
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Not even 40° North.
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Fairly few P5 schools are north of 40 degrees, especially if you discount the coastal P12 schools that don’t suffer really cold winters. Indianapolis is certainly a lot closer to the B10 schools than any other location.
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It dont count unless its Minny or Detroit! Arrowhead would be a cruel punishment, out in an open plain, no bars or other attractions within walking distance, in a region with bad college football.
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https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/2017/11/01/indianapolis-host-2022-college-football-playoff-national-championship-game/822320001/
The CFP committee sought out Indy to host the NCG and specifically in 2022.
Indianapolis was invited to bid, a contrast to how host cities have historically been awarded, Indiana Sports Corp President Ryan Vaughn said. A typical bid process begins with interested cities responding to a bid release, and could often take a year and a half.
“That’s, candidly, what we anticipated the CFP would do this time around,” Vaughn said. “However, in a very unique and fantastic way, they just called us and said, ‘Hey, we’re interested in planning this very specifically and we’re interested in Indy for 2022 and 2022 only, can you all do it? And, by the way, we’d like to know in five weeks.'”
Michael Browning, chairman of Visit Indy and one of the key players in bringing top sporting events to the city for three decades, said the city met the logistical requirements and jumped at the chance to host the game.
“We gave an unequivocal yes,” he said.
…
“When we were talking about sites, we kept asking ourselves, ‘Why not a northern-tier city?’” Bill Hancock, the Playoff’s executive director, told USA TODAY Sports. “‘Why does college football always have to have its championship in the Sun Belt?’ We’re pleased with our decision to go north.”
http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/article/2017-11-01/college-football-playoff-announces-championship-sites-2021-2024
“When we created the playoff, we said we wanted to move the national championship game around,” Hancock said. “We have done that. We call it ‘ten in ten’—ten different communities will have hosted the national championship game in the first ten years of the playoff. The CFP National Championship is one of the most popular sporting events in the United States and we’re proud to bring the game to fans in different regions of the country.
“Each of the four cities chosen met or exceeded our standards for selection,” Hancock continued. “Each has a first-class stadium that our fans will enjoy, a great convention center, excellent hotels for teams and fans, and the communities have successful track records of hosting major events. Each city also has wonderful, supportive people who we rely on to host a successful game.”
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/10/explaining_big_ten_night_games.html
A lengthy piece that explains the entire process of how night games are determined for B10 teams. The details are from thew OSU point of view but it applies to everyone. The general concepts probably apply to the other P5 conferences, too.
The bullet points:
1. Big Ten teams agreed to different tolerances for night games
2. The tolerances are in the new TV contract
3. There are a lot more night games in this contract
4. Quick point: When we are talking about tolerances, they only apply to games controlled by the Big Ten.
5. Here are the numbers
6. A lot of Ohio State
7. Road night games
8. TV contract leeches
9. When you draw the line on nice
10. Is four road night games too many?
11. Don’t push the Buckeyes any further
12. The Big Ten is a primetime conference now
13. What about the players?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21261792/notre-dame-fighting-irish-economy-weekend-south-bend-college-football
ESPN took a detailed look at what a ND home game means for South Bend economically.
In short, it brings in about $16M in spending. That’s important to remember when people talk about playing more neutral site games or balanced schedules with 6 road games.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/look-tennessee-reveals-a-two-phase-340m-renovation-to-neyland-stadium/
TN is looking to spend $340M to renovate Neyland Stadium over the next few years. No major change in capacity is expected.
The school announced Friday a two-phase, $340 million renovation to Neyland Stadium that includes modernized restrooms, concession stands and expanded concourse areas; improved security including ingress and egress flow; improved architectural aesthetics that fit the University’s master plan and prepare the stadium for the needs of future generations of fans.
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With modern security requirements, TN has one of the worst ingress and egress situations I’ve seen. Its interior concourses aren’t very good either, although this seems like just concourses when you first enter, not getting around. It also seems to have really narrow seats (either that or TN people are just big), so its an uncomfortable stadium.
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Big financial news coming out of Cal. The chancellor announced that the academic side will pick up a portion of the stadium debt from the athletic department. In addition, she said that the AD must balance their budget by 2020 (the same goal as the academic side).
In a move with sweeping implications for Cal’s athletic department, Chancellor Carol Christ said Thursday that central campus will assume a portion of crushing annual debt from the Memorial Stadium renovation, according to a campus spokesman.
Christ revealed her plans at a meeting of the university’s Academic Senate in which she also announced that athletics must balance its budget by 2020, a timeframe that mirrors the university’s plan.
Details of the debt transfer haven’t been finalized, said spokesman Dan Mogulof, who attended the meeting.
…
There is no timetable for the implementation of the debt transfer, nor did Christ reveal the structure: Will it be raw dollars or a percentage? And will it come from the overall debt or the annual debt service?
But it figures to be a significant percentage.
While explaining her decision, Christ told the assembled faculty that no other department on campus would assume financial responsibility for seismic retrofitting.
She also echoed the conclusion of the Task Force on Intercollegiate Athletics (and this is the central, tangled dynamic):
It’s simply not possible for athletics to be responsible for the full debt load and balance its budget and maintain its current size (30 sports).
The assumption of debt by central campus is viewed by some in the Cal administration as a moral issue: The UC Regents ordered the Bears to retrofit the 95-year-old facility, which sits on the Hayward Fault, because of public safety concerns.
While the total debt of $438 million includes the cost of the Simpson training center and upgraded amenities to the stadium, the portion directly related to seismic improvements is believed to be at least $230 million.
The debt service payments of $18 million annually — the figure leaps into the $30 millions in later years — comes out of the athletic department’s operating budget.
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Who bet on a reasonable and logical decision? Come get your winnings.
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Well, the B10 all but threw away its playoff chances. 12-1 WI wouldn’t get in with their soft schedule, so they have to win out.
We eliminated several more playoff contenders.
Candidates = 10
Undefeated (in bold) = 5
ACC (2):
A – Clemson
C – Miami
B10 (1):
E – none
W – WI
B12 (2):
TCU, OU
P12 (1):
N – UW
S – none
SEC (2):
E – UGA
W – AL
Other (2):
UCF, ND
Elimination games this week:
TCU @ OU (538.com says OU wins 60% of the time)
Other big/good games:
ND @ Miami (538.com says ND wins 59% of the time)
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12 – 1 Badgers might still get in with a collection of circumstances. Perhaps a very close loss in the B1G championship and some unexpected results among other contenders. If this were the SEC, every fan of every team would be rooting for the Badgers to win out. With the B1G, I am not so sure it will work that way.
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With enough chaos, sure. But they’re behind a 13-0/12-1 SEC champ, 13-0/12-1 ACC champ, 12-1 B12 champ, 11-1 ND and maybe a 12-1 P12 champ (UW hasn’t played anyone either). WI would have 1 win over a ranked team and that’s diminished because all the East teams have 2+ losses. That loss would be to IA, MI or MN so it won’t be great.
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Bernie – most fans of SEC schools, other than the team that shall not be named, hates them. We don’t want to see them win anything – ever! The only reason to root for the crimson team is that if they win another championship, maybe Saban will retire.
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Alan, that is the way that it should be. I personally think that Alabama and Saban have done major damage to the rest of the SEC.
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Disney negotiating to buy most of FOX properties.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/06/21st-century-fox-has-been-holding-talks-to-sell-most-of-company-to-disney-sources.html
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“News” and sports would not be involved. But the possibility that it could be is one of my reasons for liking the conference network ownership model of the PAC.
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I think the government would prevent Disney from buying the sports side (FS1, FS2, FS regionals) and they already can’t own a second major broadcast network so Fox network is off the table anyway.
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LiAngelo Ball and two other UCLA frosh BBall players arrested for shoplifting in China. If they were just normal college students, I would expect serious jail time. It will be interesting to see this play out. http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21331147/ucla-players-liangelo-ball-cody-riley-jalen-hill-arrested-china-shoplifting
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And of course his dad says it isn’t a big deal. That’s certainly not what my dad would’ve said if I ever got arrested, especially on free trip overseas.
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It is a revealing comment about his dad’s own moral situation.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 62%
2. UGA – 57%
3. Clemson – 57%
4. OU – 42%
5. WI – 35%
6. UW – 31%
7. ND – 30%
8. Miami – 25%
9. TCU – 23%
10. OSU – 14%
The SEC still has a decent shot at 2 spots. The B10’s chances aren’t great since WI is not getting much respect right now. The P12 seems to be in even more trouble, but there are a lot of games to play. ND and OU are legitimate threats to make it if they win out.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
The most plausible option is 12-0 UGA meeting 12-0 AL in the SECCG.
If AL wins out, UGA has an 34% chance to make it (5th in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
If UGA wins out, AL has a 26% chance to make it (7th team in likelihood).
The moral of the story is that people should root for UGA (and/or AL) to lose a game before the CCG. That would eliminate the 2 SEC teams scenario. Go Auburn.
AL is their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 24%
UGA – 16%
Clemson – 14%
OU – 8%
UW – 8%
ND – 7%
WI – 7%
Most likely CFP candidates to win out the rest of the season (everyone 20% or higher):
Clemson – 45%
UCF – 42%
ND – 40%
UW – 35%
OU – 33%
AL – 32%
WI – 26%
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Another crazy weekend made 2017 seem more and more like 2007.
We eliminated several more playoff contenders.
Candidates = 7
Undefeated (in bold) = 4
ACC (2):
A – Clemson
C – Miami
B10 (1):
E – none
W – WI
B12 (1):
OU
P12 (0):
N – none
S – none
SEC (2):
E – UGA
W – AL
Other (1):
UCF
Elimination games this week:
none
Big/good games:
it’s a pretty bad week for games
MI @ WI (538.com says WI wins 76% of the time)
…
#1 UGA, #3 ND, #6 TCU and #9 UW all lost. That should mean the CFP is looking at #1 AL and then a group of very similar teams. How far up do #7 Miami and #8 WI jump? Do they finally pass #5 OU despite OU beating #6 TCU? How far does UGA drop for getting whipped by #10 AU?
My guess:
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. UGA
6. WI
7. AU
8. ND
9. OSU
10. TCU
The CCG picture is already getting some clarity:
ACC: Miami vs Clemson – winner is in the CFP
B10: WI vs ??? (OSU is in if they beat IL) – winner has very good odds of making it
B12: ??? vs ??? (OU is in if they beat KU, TCU holds the edge to be the other team) – 12-1 OU would be in
P12: USC vs ??? (WSU or Stanford) – probably out of the CFP
SEC: UGA vs ??? (AL/AU winner) – winner is in the CFP, loser might also be
The CFP picture also seems to be getting more clear:
It looks like the ACC and SEC champs are all but locked in. A 12-1 OU and 13-0 WI would also make it. But if those 2 don’t both win out, things get more challenging.
Other possible teams for the CFP (11-2 or better):
B10 champs: 11-2 OSU, 12-1 WI
B12 champs: 11-2 OU, TCU, OkSU
P12 champs: 11-2 USC, WSU
Non-champs: 12-1 AL, WI (CCG losers); 11-1 Miami (CCG loss); 11-1 AL (no CCG)
Other: 13-0 UCF
I think OSU is the only 2-loss champ on that list that would trump the 1-loss teams based on the CFP rankings. I also think a 12-1 B10 champ WI might be in trouble due to their soft schedule.
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It would’ve been nice, but probably too much to ask for, to have Mississippi State upset an evil empire for the second time in the calendar year 2017, which would really have caused chaos in the CFP. But what happened to Storrs in Dallas back in April didn’t happen to Tuscaloosa in Starkville Saturday night.
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Yeah, I’ll settle for one of the two SEC teams losing. There’s still a chance for 2 SEC (or ACC) teams to get in, but I think with all the chaos the committee will bump up P5 champs to the top 4 spots.
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I agree. I can’t see both Clemson and Miami in. Where Georgia had a good chance to go in with Bama, that is a lot less likely now. If Bama beats Auburn and then Georgia beats Alabama in a close game, I guess that it is still possible, but not likely. Meanwhile UCF is sitting there undefeated, while there may be two loss P5 champions looking to get in.
Obviously, if the Badgers win out they are in. What happens if OSU beats the Badgers in a close game? Then what?
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The Buckeyes go to the Rose Bowl. Whiskey goes somewhere not in the CFP.
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Jersey Bernie,
“I agree. I can’t see both Clemson and Miami in. Where Georgia had a good chance to go in with Bama, that is a lot less likely now. If Bama beats Auburn and then Georgia beats Alabama in a close game, I guess that it is still possible, but not likely. Meanwhile UCF is sitting there undefeated, while there may be two loss P5 champions looking to get in.”
Miami just doesn’t have sufficient good wins to get in as a non-champ. Miami had 4 1-possession wins in a row against mediocre teams (FSU, GT, SU, UNC) in the middle of the season. ND is the only currently ranked team (AP poll) they’ve played. Miami hasn’t been getting a lot of respect from the committee so far, so while they’ll jump up for beating ND they should also drop some for losing to Clemson.
AL has a slightly better case because the committee already has them so high. Their only ranked wins are over MsSU and LSU, neither of which are top 15 teams. AU would give them a better win, but it would be followed by a loss to a an equivalent team. Depending on how close the loss is, I’m not sure that is sufficient to get a non-champ into the top 4 in such a chaotic year. Would AL be clearly better than the 2-loss champions? It’s debatable.
I don’t think a G5 champ with such a weak OOC slate can get in. They’d need at least 1 top 15 win and to be 2 games ahead of the P5 champ or else be 3 games ahead.
“Obviously, if the Badgers win out they are in. What happens if OSU beats the Badgers in a close game? Then what?”
Agreed on WI. No undefeated P5 champ will get left out unless there are 4 other perfect teams. For OSU, it depends on who else wins out.
Assume the ACC and SEC champs are in. Everyone else is fighting for 2 spots. OSU would be ahead of the P12 champ and any 2-loss non-champs, so that eliminates a lot of teams. OU would be ahead of OSU. TCU might be. Any other B12 champ would likely trail OSU. The other options would be 1-loss non-champions AL or Miami. As explained above, I don’t think Miami would get in. AL would be an option.
Summary of tiers:
1-2. ACC champ & SEC champ
3. OU as B12 champ
4. OSU as B10 champ/TCU as B12 champ/AL
5. Other B12 champ/Miami
The B12 CCG could be very important.
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ND and U-Dub losing helped the B10 as their will be a need for a token non southern team.
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Well, it helped OSU. 13-0 WI would get in no matter what.
It may also help in the NY6, but at the cost of getting killed in lower bowls again.
But I want to make clear that I really hope OSU doesn’t make the CFP this year. Last year’s loss was bad enough. I’d prefer not to get destroyed in a semifinal again so soon.
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Nebraska’s rebuilding will be more complicated than many think. Good piece here from Omaha: http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/mckewon-an-open-letter-to-the-future-nebraska-football-coach/article_4a6e9464-e0ff-5669-bfbe-9be47b0667b6.html
Incidentally, Tennessee said bye-bye Butch. If Florida is the most desirable P5 vacancy at the moment (thanks largely to the in-state talent base), which is next on the list — the Volunteers or Cornhuskers?
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According to the USAToday coaches’ salary database, Butch Jones was the 20th highest paid coach with a $4.11 million annual base salary, while Mike Riley was at #41 with $2.9 million.
Tennessee’s athletic department brought in over $140 million in revenue in the last reporting period, placing them in 9th place, while Nebraska brought in $112 million, good for 22nd place.
Both are programs that will most likely never regain their former glory. Neither are located in recruiting hotbeds, but Tennessee is closer to them than Nebraska. Add in the better weather to go with more revenue, past willingness to pay more, and proximity to recruiting, I’d sure take the Tennessee job over the Nebraska job.
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Alan,
My instinct is to agree with you, but there are a few things that must be noted:
1. NE hasn’t been getting a full share of B10 revenue so far. Their B10 payout will jump by about $25M this year, putting NE on par with TN.
2. Not only will NE get a big bump in revenue, but they also have a new AD so we don’t know how much he’s willing to spend on a coach/staff.
3. The recruiting grounds proximity favors TN, but NE has an easier path to a conference title which probably balances that out.
I think it’s probably more down to personal preference of the coach than anything. Where are their roots, where have they recruited before, etc.
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Here’s a great behind-the-scenes story of the origin of the charitable donation deduction for mandatory donations for college sporting tickets, and how the GOP tax overhaul may have an adverse effect on athletic department budgets.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/article_f62e65ac-c6f5-11e7-a5ad-b7a2517a1780.html
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As long as it doesn’t impact donations to the academic side, I don’t have a problem with it. It could leave a huge hole in athletic budgets, though, and that will lead to men’s sports getting cut (Title IX will save most women’s teams) or more subsidies from the academic side/student fees.
The story behind the law shows much that is wrong with our government. A law designed to only benefit 2 schools and nobody fixes it from the get go? They should’ve been ashamed to propose such a biased bill and others to vote for it.
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On a related note, the new tax plan (at least 1 version of it, who knows what it’s final form will be) would also make the tuition waiver grad students get for teaching or doing research become taxable income. So instead of free tuition and a salary of a $15k, you’d be paying taxes on more like $75k at many schools. That could easily be $10k in taxes on a $15k salary. That would have a huge impact on most grad students.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/11/08/playoff-rankings-conference-division-realignment
Multiple people ask Andy Staples about P5 conferences getting rid of divisions and Staples is in favor of it. Maybe this is the start of a movement that will reach critical mass in the nest few years.
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http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/41955834
Well, at least US soccer is no longer the most embarrassed national team in the world anymore. Italy just failed to qualify for the World Cup for only their second time ever (they chose not to participate in the first one). Italy has the 4th-best soccer league in the world (MLS is 28th) and their citizens actually care about soccer. Italy is currently ranked #15 in the world and 32 teams make the WC. They aren’t the highest-ranked team to miss out this year, but they are a soccer blueblood (4 WC titles, 2 runner-ups).
An Italian sports newspaper’s headline (translated): “Italy, this is the apocalypse. We’re out of the World!”
Top teams to miss out:
#9 Chile
#10 Peru is in a playoff
#14 Wales
#15 Italy
#19 Denmark is in a playoff
#20 Netherlands
…
#27 USA
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http://www.espnfc.com/united-states/story/3269935/us-soccer-exploring-pre-world-cup-matches-with-netherlands-italy
The US is looking into hosting a bunch of pre-World Cup matches with other teams that missed the WC. It’s not clear if it would be a tournament or just a series of friendlies. If they are friendlies, some of the WC teams from Central and South America might also be interested as a way to adjust to northern hemisphere weather before going to Russia.
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Jon Wilner thinks P12 football has several problems and he proposes a solution. And no, this has nothing to do with the P12N. His biggest complaint is with their scheduling practices.
When your prospects for victory are undermined by unfair logistical demands — logistical demands not placed on teams in the other Power Fives — the result is playoff elimination before the middle of November.
Friday night road teams are 0-4 after playing a conference game the previous Saturday: USC lost at WSU, WSU lost at Cal, UCLA lost at Utah and Washington lost at Stanford.
Three of the four Friday night losers were favorites in the game.
And three of the four were playoff candidates.
Add it all up … the brutal schedule demands and the poor playoff position and the complaints (from coaches) about the application of targeting and the night game complaints and the PR hits … again: no other Power Five has these issues … and it’s clear the Pac-12 football product needs help.
Fortunately, the Hotline is here with a solution, not for 2017 or ’18 but for the long haul:
The Pac-12 should create a competition committee, modeled loosely on the NFL version, that serves as the governing body for all football matters.
It would have ultimate authority on issues that directly impact the on-field product, from the regular-season conference schedule to the post-season bowl lineup, from officiating to recruiting to any and all matters that impact the football product.
…
There are impediments to the Hotline plan, of course, and the two greatest are these:
1) The conference power brokers (commissioner Larry Scott and the presidents) would have to relinquish some control.
2) The NCAA has a competition committee that oversees the sport. The Pac-12 version would have to work within the parameters (rules and accepted practices) established by the NCAA group, thereby limiting its scope on some issues.
But whatever flexibility exists, the committee would have the authority to act in the best interest of Pac-12 football.
Scheduling would be an obvious area of focus. Currently, teams make their own non-conference arrangements and send those dates to Pac-12 HQ, which then outsources responsibility for creating the master schedule.
As one coach told the Hotline: “We schedule to schedule. Other conferences schedule to benefit their teams.”
…
The Pac-12 needs an oversight committee to look out for the teams — to avoid competitive disadvantages:
* No more Friday road games that follow Saturday road games.
* No more sending teams on the road to face opponents that have an extra week to prepare.
* Limit the number of night road games to the best extent allowed by the contracts with ESPN and Fox.
(If there is no room to maneuver — the networks paid for the night windows and are entitled to their money’s worth — then make a trade:
(Offer ESPN and Fox another six-day selection option in exchange for a per-team cap on night road games.
(The six-day options are unpopular with fans and therefore suboptimal for business, but the night road games are bad for … wait for it … the players.)
…
How would the committee work? Who would serve? And for how long? I’ve thought about that, too.
In order to get buy-in from Scott and the presidents, it would have to be diverse in makeup, equal in representation and give voice to the academic side:
* Three rotating athletic directors.
* Three rotating head coaches.
* Three rotating directors of football operations.
* Three rotating faculty athletic representatives.
* One chairperson (with voting privileges): Deputy commissioner Jamie Zaninovich, because the conference must have a voice and Zaninovich is viewed as an inclusive, honest broker by the campuses.
(On matters of football scheduling, there would be a 14th, non-voting member who serves as the liaison to the TV networks: associate commissioner Duane Lindberg, who currently handles that responsibility.)
Each school would be represented by one of the rotating positions, with two-year terms. The representative would, of course, work closely with his/her school on all matters in order to speak as one voice.
Scheduling is a difficult process, more so in the P12 with two locked rivalries with ND in addition to the usual conference games. It seems like some of the conferences could do a better job, though. Perhaps spend more time forming a few base schedules and then use them repeatedly rather than starting fresh every year.
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On the bright side, Wilner is much happier with the P12’s recently released 2018 schedule.
But ’18 is undeniably better.
A few items of note:
*** There are no instances of Saturday road games followed by Friday road games — a dastardly back-to-back that has seemingly contributed to losses by USC and Washington State this season.
…
*** No team will play 12 consecutive games, a development made possible by … Brigham Young.
…
*** All the traditional rivalry games will be played the final two weeks:
USC-UCLA, Stanford-Cal and Utah-Colorado are Week 12 (Nov. 17), while Civil War, Apple Cup and Territorial Cup are Week 13 (Nov. 23-24.)
Also on the final weekend: Colorado at Cal, Stanford at UCLA and BYU-Utah (as noted above).
*** One interesting development:
There are two weeks in the middle portion of the season (Sept. 22 and Oct. 13) in which four teams are idle.
I have zero problem with that. Byes in late September and early/mid October are optimal for the players, and the season is long enough, especially now with Week Zero games (late August), that a slight lull isn’t detrimental.
But those two weeks in which four teams are idle? There’s also a Friday game.
Which means there are only three games on Saturday.
Which means the Pac-12 Networks could be without a game if ESPN and Fox use three combined selections.
*** The non-conference schedules, controlled by the schools, are a vast improvement over the ’16 version.
The marquee games, (excluding the two traditional Notre Dame dates) are as follows:
Washington vs. Auburn (Atlanta)
Oregon State at Ohio State
UCLA at Oklahoma
USC at Texas
Colorado at Nebraska
Michigan State at Arizona State
I know Wilner believes that P12 teams should be playing a 1/1/1 OOC schedule (1 P5, 1 G5, 1 I-AA) and doesn’t like if they schedule up from that or if the top teams don’t schedule a solid P5 opponent (UW playing RU for example). But those marquee games don’t look great to me.
UW vs AU is great
CO @ NE and USC @ UT could be good depending on how the teams are next season
OrSU @ OSU, UCLA @ OU and MSU @ ASU sound like mismatches to me
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2017/11/13/penn-state-frat-charges/859524001/
Things have escalated in the PSU hazing case as video showing what happened at the party has been found (it was intentionally deleted but the FBI recovered it). In addition a bunch of incriminating text messages were found showing an attempted cover up. A lot more charges have been filed (12 more frat members including 5 manslaughter charges) to bring the total to 24 people charged. The video shows the victim being given 18 drinks in under 90 minutes.
Schools really need to crack down because somehow many frats have developed the culture of hazing and alcohol abuse. Since only seniors are generally legal to drink anyway, I’m surprised more universities aren’t more strict about alcohol in frat houses.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/the-ohio-state-university/2017/11/88003/ohio-state-suspends-all-fraternities
On a related note, OSU has suspended all frats. They have noted what’s happened at PSU, LSU and on OSU’s campus and are trying to nip the bad behavior in the bud.
After high-profile fraternity deaths at LSU and Penn State this year, and 11 conduct investigations into Buckeye fraternities this semster, Ohio State made the decision Thursday to suspend all Interfraternity Council chapters from campus.
“This proactive step is being taken so that the IFC community takes a pause to reflect and create individual, actionable strategies for the future,” Ryan Lovell, the university’s senior director for sorority and fraternity life, wrote in a letter obtained by The Lantern.
“Our expectation is that each chapter will develop a plan and implementation timeline to ensure that the culture of their organization is aligned with the stated values of Ohio State’s Greek community, responsibilities outlined in the university’s Code of Student Conduct and expectations of their respective national or international organization.”
According to the report, a majority of the conduct investigations involved hazing and alcohol.
Frats are either going to change or die.
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Are they going to rush compliance measures in order to have their ‘21.5 (spring initiates) classes in? Also will the instate MACs take advantage in terms of touting a less scrutinized greek life?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings
The new CFP rankings are out.
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. WI
6. AU
7. UGA
8. ND
9. OSU
10. PSU
B10:
17. MSU
23. NW
24. MI
G5:
15. UCF
21. Memphis
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions
Odds of making the playoff:
1. Clemson – 69%
2. AL – 68%
3. OU – 58%
4. Miami – 52%
5. WI – 40%
6. UGA – 31%
7. OSU – 29%
8. AU – 22%
9. TCU – 10%
10. USC – 8%
The SEC still has a decent shot at 2 spots. The ACC also has a chance.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
a. One option is 12-1 UGA beating 12-0 AL in the SECCG. If UGA wins out, AL has an 47% chance to make it (5th in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
b. If AU wins out, AL has a 40% chance to make it (5th team in likelihood).
c. If Miami wins out, Clemson has a 25% chance to make it (7th team in likelihood).
d. If Clemson wins out, Miami has a 24% chance to make it (7th team in likelihood).
I think the committee will try to get 4 P5 champs rather than a second team from any one conference this year. There just isn’t a non-champ that would be clearly better than the 4th P5 champ and I think they’d prefer the diversity unless the situation forced them to admit a second team.
It’s important to remember that the odds are all very dependent on who wins each conference.
So instead, let’s look at the odds of each team making the CFP if the team wins out:
>99% – Clemson, AL, Miami
99% – WI
98% – OU
95% – UGA
94% – AU
65% – OSU
35% – TCU
26% – WSU
20% – USC
3% – ND
So the ACC champ, SEC champ, OU if it’s B12 champ and WI if it’s B10 champ are all locks. OSU is on par with a non-champ AL. The best hope for OSU is for AL to win out. Strangely it also helps OSU if TCU wins the B12.
AL is still their prohibitive favorite to win the title:
AL – 28%
Clemson – 17%
OU – 12%
Miami, OSU, UW – 8%
UGA – 7%
AU – 6%
Most likely CFP candidates to win out the rest of the season:
OU – 51%
Clemson – 49%
OSU – 43%
AL – 41%
Miami – 32%
WI – 26%
UGA – 25%
AU – 22%
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Let’s take a look at the resumes of the top CFP contenders:
Top 25 wins (and possible ones):
AL – #20 LSU, @ #16 MsSU (@ #6 AU, vs #7 UGA)
AU – #16 MsSU, #7 UGA (#1 AL, vs #7 UGA)
UGA – @ #8 ND, #16 MsSU (vs #1 AL /#6 AU)
Clemson – #6 AU, @ #19 NCSU (vs #3 Miami)
Miami – #8 ND (vs #2 Clemson)
WI – #23 NW (#24 MI, vs #9 OSU)
OSU – #10 PSU, #17 MSU (@ #24 MI, vs #5 WI)
OU – @ #9 OSU, @ #13 OkSU, #12 TCU (vs #12 TCU/#13 OkSU)
OU has 3 ranked wins while Miami and WI only have one each. Everyone else has 2 ranked wins. AL, AU, WI and OSU all have a chance at 2 more ranked wins while everyone else can get one more. That means 5 different teams could end up with 4 ranked wins (not all at the same time) while WI and UGA could only get 3 and Miami could only get 2.
Obligatory note:
This week’s top 25 is an arbitrary cutoff point. Teams 26-30 are basically the same as 21-25. Also, teams will shift around over the next 2 weeks so some teams will move on or off the list (VT, IA and ISU all dropped off this week for example). My numbers may differ from how the committee counts because they may use ranked at the time.
Other wins over 0.500 teams (and possible ones):
AL – Fresno, CSU, TAMU
AU – @MO, @TAMU
UGA – App St, MO, SC, (UK, @GT)
Clemson – @UL, BC, WF, GT (@SC)
Miami – Toledo, VT (UVA)
WI – USU, FAU, IA (@MN)
OSU – Army
OU – UT, @KSU, TT (WV)
Clemson has 4 and OSU just 1 while everyone else has 2 or 3. Only 5 of the teams have a chance to add another one.
Obligatory note:
Being 0.500 is also pretty arbitrary, especially with 2 games left. A lot of these teams are 5-5 or 6-4 but 4-6 teams that might end up bowl eligible aren’t listed. In other words, don’t read too much into the number of wins listed here. The difference between 4-6 and 6-4 can be SOS or luck. For example, OSU has beaten 4 B10 teams that are 4-6 (RU, UMD, IN and NE). Put the East teams in a different division and they might be 5-5. Meanwhile Clemson has wins over 2 6-4 teams, 1 5-4 team and 1 5-5 team.
Losses:
AL – none
AU – @ #2 Clemson, @ #20 LSU
UGA – @ #6 AU
Clemson – SU
Miami – none
WI – none
OSU – #4 OU, @IA
OU – @ISU
Obviously most teams can’t afford another loss. AL, Miami and Clemson seem like the only possibilities to survive another loss.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/week-12-cfp-bubble-watch.html
This blogger does a more detailed breakdown of the CFP contenders and their resumes.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/21423391/arkansas-razorbacks-fire-ad-jeff-long
AR fired their AD which will soon lead to firing their head coach. That makes 3 SEC jobs available with rumors about some others.
I wonder if any B10 school will take a chance on Bielema and hope he can recreate what he had going at WI.
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How desperate is Nebraska?
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If its a way of taking back the Nebraska formula from Wisconsin, perhaps. I think the ‘backs are trying to place themselves in a good spot for the Mike Norvell sweepstakes vs. the other ‘villes in the SEC.
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I’ve heard SMU’s Chad Morris mentioned.
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If its a way of taking back the Nebraska formula from Wisconsin, perhaps
They didn’t hire Alvarez for their AD so you can scratch that notion. I imagine Bret’s name is way down Nebraska’s list.
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https://www.buzzfeed.com/zoetillman/a-trump-judicial-nominee-appears-to-have-written-about
I post this not to discuss anything political but just as a reminder that what you post on the internet can matter, even in sports blogs.
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He crapped himself with both extremes though if you further in his feed.
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https://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/11/16/16665828/conference-realignment-hampton-pirates-meac-big-south
Mid major realignment news from Frank’s twitter.
Hampton will leave the MEAC for the Big South in 2018. SC Upstate announced previously it will leave the Atlantic Sun for the Big South.
Meanwhile, Savannah State is dropping out of D-I.
The Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference is going to look very different very soon.
Savannah State has already announced that it will begin a transition out of Division I, and now, one of the conference’s most successful schools is bolting for greener pastures.
The Hampton Pirates will leave the MEAC and join the Big South, according to several reports. Steven J. Gaither of HBCU Gameday broke the story Wednesday night.
According to a release from the Big South, Hampton will begin its membership with the Big South on July 1, 2018, for all sports except for men’s lacrosse.
Hampton joins USC Upstate as the two schools who have announced moves to the Big South. USC Upstate announced yesterday that it would leave the Atlantic Sun.
…
The move would make Hampton the second Division I HBCU — along with Tennessee State — to not be a member of the MEAC or SWAC. With the departures of Hampton and Savannah State, this would also make the MEAC a nine-team football conference, as UMES and Coppin State don’t have teams.
For the Big South, Hampton will be the fourth Virginia school, joining four in South Carolina, and four in North Carolina. When conference play begins, this will mean less traveling for the Pirates, as the MEAC spans from Delaware to Florida.
I think the reduced travel is a big deal for Hampton. It’s a shame to see HBCUs dropping down or leaving their traditional conferences, though.
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Not much changed this week with very few good games on the slate.
I’m adding back in as playoff contender a couple of teams (OSU, AU) that the “experts” have said are still viable. I don’t think ND, TCU or the P12 champ have a decent shot based on what I’ve seen.
Candidates = 9
Undefeated (in bold) = 4
ACC (2):
A – Clemson
C – Miami
B10 (2):
E – OSU
W – WI
B12 (2):
OU
TCU
P12 (0):
N – none
S – none
SEC (2):
E – UGA
W – AL, AU
Other (1):
UCF
Elimination games this week:
none
Big/good games:
ND @ Stanford (538.com says ND wins 55% of the time)
AL @ AU (538.com says AL wins 61% of the time)
OSU @ MI (538.com says OSU wins 74% of the time)
WSU @ UW (538.com says UW wins 78% of the time)
…
The CCG picture got more clarity:
ACC: Miami vs Clemson – winner is in the CFP
B10: WI vs OSU – winner has very good odds of making it
B12: OU vs ??? (TCU just needs to beat Baylor) – 12-1 OU would be in
P12: USC vs ??? (WSU or Stanford) – probably out of the CFP
SEC: UGA vs ??? (AL/AU winner) – winner is in the CFP, loser might also be
The CFP picture also seems to be getting more clear:
It looks like the ACC and SEC champs are all but locked in. A 12-1 OU and 13-0 WI would also make it. But if those 2 don’t both win out, things get more challenging.
Other possible teams for the CFP (11-2 or better):
B10 champs: 11-2 OSU, 12-1 WI
B12 champs: 11-2 OU, TCU
P12 champs: 11-2 USC, WSU
Non-champs: 12-1 AL, WI (CCG losers); 11-1 Miami (CCG loss); 11-1 AL (no CCG)
Other: 13-0 UCF
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To give an idea how pointless this week was, the coaches poll was unchanged for the top 12. #13 OkSU lost and dropped 8 spots while the 4 teams directly behind them all moved up 1 spot.
In B10 news, NW moved into the top 25 while MI dropped out.
I’m guessing the AP poll will be similar. This tells me that Tuesday’s CFP rankings will also be almost unchanged up top.
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Jim Mora is out of a job in Westwood — three straight losses to SC and a dreadful rushing defense did him in. Offensive coordinator Jedd Fisch will coach the Bruins vs. Cal Friday and in any possible bowl game (only possible if UCLA beats the Bears, and even that’s no guarantee). A good prince program that unfortunately occupies the same city as a king.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/11/where_jt_barrett_ranks_among_o.html
I try to avoid posting too much OSU-specific material here, but this article reminded me of a point that might be of broader interest. For all its team success and great players, OSU has been a wasteland for pro QB play. Thanks in large part to Woody Hayes’s aversion to throwing the ball, OSU didn’t really join modern football until 1978.
The article lists OSU’s 10 “best” QBs of all time with their stats. While the win totals are impressive, the passing numbers are weak.
OSU’s top passers (the only ones over 5000 yds):
1. J.T. Barrett 9,068
2. Art Schlichter 7,547
3. Bobby Hoying 7,232
4. Joe Germaine 6,370
5. Greg Frey 6,316
6. Steve Bellisari 5,878
7. Troy Smith 5,720
8. Mike Tomczak 5,569
9. Braxton Miller 5,292
10. Jim Karsatos 5,089
I started thinking about how many major programs that may also be true for based on run-based schemes being successful for so long.
Compare that to some other schools:
MI is similar with Navarre and Henne over 9000 yards and 8 QBs over 5000 yards. They do have Tom Brady, though.
PSU has Hackenberg over 8000 yards and 9 QBs over 5000 yards. They’ve had some solid pro QBs (Collins, Blackledge).
NE has Armstrong over 8000 yards and only 5 QBs over 5000 yards. They had Frazier and Gill to go along with Ferragamo who was a good pro.
Maybe it’s just a B10 thing, because OU and ND have done better.
The NCAA lists 109 QBs throwing for over 10,000 yards. The B10 can claim #39 Drew Brees, #41 Russell Wilson partially, #58 Curtis Painter, #65 Adam Weber and #85 Brett Basanez. That’s pretty weak although the weather and shorter seasons impact things.
So how do you define “best” quarterbacks in a run-heavy league? And will we ever see a B10 power take up the passing game to the extent that other teams do?
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“And will we ever see a B10 power take up the passing game to the extent that other teams do?”
I hope not. Higher scoring doesn’t mean better play.
If I want to watch a basketball like sport, I watch…basketball.
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Syracuse had a similar run-focused offense during its glory years of the ’50s and ’60s.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/11/ohio_state_vs_wisconsin_big_te.html
The B10 media finally got it right. In their preseason poll, the consensus pick was OSU vs WI in the CCG. This is the first time in 7 tries they’ve gotten both teams correct.
But this year, in a poll of 38 Big Ten writers, Ohio State was picked to represent the East in the title game by 32 voters. Wisconsin was picked to represent the West by 31 voters.
Overall, 29 voters picked Ohio State to win the Big Ten, while four picked Wisconsin. That means five voters are definitely wrong, four who picked Penn State and one who picked Michigan.
Of the 25 voters who picked an Ohio State-Wisconsin showdown, 22 picked the Buckeyes to win.
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http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2017/11/divisions_are_ruining_college_football_and_there_s_nothing_we_can_do_about.html
Here’s a nice rant against divisions in CFB. It doesn’t say anything we haven’t heard before but it’s a good read.
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The only significant change in the CFP rankings was that Miami moved up to #2 while Clemson dropped to #3 (that’s what happens when you play the Citadel in the penultimate week).
ttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions
Odds of making the playoff:
1. AL – 67%
2. Clemson – 64%
3. OU – 58%
4. Miami – 58%
5. WI – 47%
6. UGA – 33%
7. OSU – 27%
8. AU – 20%
9. TCU – 11%
10. USC – 9%
The SEC still has a decent shot at 2 spots. The ACC also has a chance.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
a. One option is 12-1 UGA beating 12-0 AL in the SECCG. If UGA wins out, AL has a 46% chance to make it (5th in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
b. If AU wins out, AL has a 38% chance to make it (5th team in likelihood).
c. If Clemson wins out, Miami has a 32% chance to make it (5th team in likelihood).
d. If Miami wins out, Clemson has a 17% chance to make it (8th team in likelihood).
I think the committee will try to get 4 P5 champs rather than a second team from any one conference this year. There just isn’t a non-champ that would be clearly better than the 4th P5 champ and I think they’d prefer the diversity unless the situation forced them to admit a second team.
It’s important to remember that the odds are all very dependent on who wins each conference.
So instead, let’s look at the odds of each team making the CFP if that team wins out:
>99% – Clemson, AL, Miami
99% – WI
97% – OU
92% – UGA, AU
60% – OSU
30% – TCU
28% – WSU
18% – USC
2% – ND
So the ACC champ, SEC champ, OU if it’s B12 champ and WI if it’s B10 champ are all locks. OSU is on par with a non-champ AL. The best hope for OSU is for AL to win out.
AL is still their favorite to win the title:
AL – 27%
Clemson – 17%
OU – 12%
WI – 10%
Miami – 9%
OSU, UGA – 8%
AU – 6%
Most likely CFP candidates to win out the rest of the season:
OU – 54%
Clemson – 48%
OSU – 43%
AL – 41%
WI – 39%
Miami – 35%
UGA – 30%
AU – 21%
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/107917746
What does the laissez faire college athletic benefits crowd thinks of even the pros having regulations? I found amusing that this phrase sounds like an NCAA infraction.
“ as punishment for offering “impermissible benefits” to an unidentified draft pick“
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21518862/aac-commissioner-mike-aresco-lobbies-more-respect-conference
The AAC’s commissioner is unhappy that UCF is only ranked #15 and that USF is unranked.
“I just don’t think our league is garnering the respect it deserves, period,” he said. “I feel strongly about it. The evidence is in.”
Aresco, one of the 10 FBS commissioners who compose the College Football Playoff’s management committee along with Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, pointed to Houston’s wins over Oklahoma and Louisville last year, as well as the Memphis wins over Ole Miss (2015) and UCLA this year and a 30-6 regular-season record against other Group of 5 opponents over the past three seasons, as examples.
“Those kinds of performances have to count for something,” he said. “We’ve tried to prove for five years how good our conference is. What do we have to do is my question, to prove that we’re a really good league, especially at the top? I just don’t like the notion that, well, strength of schedule, I don’t like to see UCF behind three- and two-loss teams, and I think they can play with anyone. I just don’t know what more we can do.”
I’d point out a few things:
1. Wins in 2015 and 2016 mean nothing. They have no impact on how good a team is in 2017.
2. It seems odd that he didn’t mention #20 Memphis as well. Is that where he thinks a 1-loss AAC team should be ranked?
3. Try scheduling more and better P5 OOC games.
FIU, Maryland, Austin Peay – that’s UCF’s OOC slate this year (GT was cancelled due to weather)
SJSU, Stony Brook, ILL – that’s USF’s OOC slate this year (UMass was cancelled due to weather)
ULM, UCLA, SIU – that’s Memphis’s OOC slate this year (GA State was cancelled due to weather)
Why should any of those games earn their teams respect? The best team is 5-6 UCLA.
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The problem with this logic is that I’m not sure there is an incentive for the major teams to play the good group of 5 teams. They gain nothing from winning, but know good and well that instead of a 99% chance of winning (like when they play a bad G5 team) its more like 60% or maybe even 50% chance of winning. Plus, as long as all the good P5 teams won’t play the good G5 teams, they can always point to the schedule and refuse to include them in any championship races (thus making money for their conference).
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It’s true, there isn’t a lot of incentive. Some of the good G5s can be counted as P5 equivalent to satisfy scheduling rules in the P5 conferences, but otherwise there is no benefit. On the other hand, the CFP tends to reward SOS and some P5s make an effort to play some good teams OOC.
Look at UH in 2016. They got OU and UL on their schedule. UCF hasn’t played many top P5 teams historically and now that’s coming back to hurt them. Considering how soft their conference schedule is compared to a P5 team, tough OOC games are the only hope and justification for a G5 team.
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Yes, UH did get OU and UL on their schedule, but the question we need to ask there is “Did either of those school think Houston was going to be any good when they scheduled them?”
I mean, Auburn and Alabama scheduled the same FCS team this year, that doesn’t mean that Mercer was making a “tough schedule” it meant that they were seen as a cupcake and two different teams decided to feast this year.
I mean, I understand what you’re saying, but if I were the AD at a top end major conference school (basically anyone who would ever be in the top 25), I would not accept any games against a G5 team that I had projected to be above .500 ever. There is no advantage. The problem with that is that it makes it literally impossible for those teams to get schedules that could vault them into the top 10, regardless of records. Not only does it protect my team from an “upset”, but it prevents any of them from ever having a resume good enough to reach the playoffs making my conference (and thus my school) more money and keeping it away from G5 schools and conferences.
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It’s a catch-22 with no incentive for solving it beyond the CFP pressure to schedule better. OSU has played/scheduled teams like NIU, UCF and Tulsa under Meyer. That’s on top of always playing at least 1 big name P5 team OOC.
BYU manages to get several top teams every year in September:
2017 – LSU, Utah, WI
2018 – AZ, Cal, WI, UW
2019 – Utah, TN, USC, UW
How hard is UCF trying to get big games? Boise gets some after years and years of success. BYU gets them. USF has a few coming up (WI, Texas).
UCF’s future P5 games:
2018 – UNC, Pitt
2019 – Stanford, Pitt
2020 – UNC, GT
2023 – Texas
At least Stanford and UT are an improvement over this year. UNC, Pitt and GT are pretty mediocre most years.
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Miami loses to Pitt ending the tiny chance of two ACC teams in playoffs. Winner of Miami – Clemson is in, loser is out. That is probably the way that it would have been in any event, so it may not much matter.
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Agreed in all respects. I don’t think Miami had much of a chance if they didn’t beat Clemson so this game doesn’t change much except possibly seeding.
This year really is turning into 2007 with a final weekend upset by Pitt over a top 2 team.
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We’re drawing closer to Clemson-Alabama 3. Great game last year, but yawn…
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Mike Riley is finally out at Nebraska while Chip Kelly is now coaching UCLA. It’s a blow to the SEC that Kelly took UCLA over UF, but I think he prefers that lesser pressure at UCLA plus being on the west coast.
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Well, Auburn wins the Iron Bowl. Wisconsin the only undefeated P5 team left. This probably means that there can no longer be two SEC teams. If Georgia beats Bama, I do not see how the committee can send a team that lost its last two games.
Wisconsin is obviously in with a win. Does this open a door for a two loss OSU if they beat my Badgers? OK, ACC champ, SEC champ are in. No viable candidate from Pac12, so who would be fourth if Badgers lose? I would think it might well be a 2 loss OSU over Bama. Other than Bama and OSU, no other 2 loss team is on the table any more.
If Bama had won today and then lost to GA in the SEC championship, they would likely have both gone if the Badgers lose to OSU.
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Is Oklahoma the odd team out, even if it wins the Big 12 title game?
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Jersey Bernie,
“Well, Auburn wins the Iron Bowl. Wisconsin the only undefeated P5 team left. This probably means that there can no longer be two SEC teams.”
Not so fast my friend. 11-1 AL is still a contender on par with OSU (if they win the B10) and ahead of everyone else but the ACC and SEC champs and a 12-1 OU.
“If Georgia beats Bama, I do not see how the committee can send a team that lost its last two games.”
UGA faces Auburn since they beat AL. AL would be 11-1.
“Wisconsin is obviously in with a win. Does this open a door for a two loss OSU if they beat my Badgers?”
Actually, this makes it harder for OSU. AL winning the SEC was best for OSU since we know the SEC champ is in no matter what.
“OK, ACC champ, SEC champ are in. No viable candidate from Pac12, so who would be fourth if Badgers lose? I would think it might well be a 2 loss OSU over Bama. Other than Bama and OSU, no other 2 loss team is on the table any more.”
That would be the discussion.
“If Bama had won today and then lost to GA in the SEC championship, they would likely have both gone if the Badgers lose to OSU.”
12-1 AL would have some resume improvement, but they’d also have a loss to the team that AU blew out recently so I’m not sure how the committee would view it.
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Now the CFP might have to earn their money. AL loses decisively at Auburn. Where does 11-1 AL fall in the hierarchy after CCGs are played?
We know the ACC and SEC champs are in, probably as the top 2 teams. 12-1 OU would also be in as would 13-0 WI. It seems like an 11-2 OSU (B10 champ) is the only other team that might keep 11-1 AL out. The P12 champ and any other B12 champ than OU are too far behind.
I’m torn because I obviously want OSU to win the B10 but I don’t really want them in the playoff. On the other hand, I don’t think this is the year to set the precedent of getting 2 teams in from 1 conference. Nobody has looked so good that they can’t be left out.
Resumes if OSU beats WI (otherwise there’s no debate):
AL wins:
#18 LSU 8-3
#14 MsSU 8-4 (will drop after loss)
TAMU 7-4
MS 6-6
FSU 5-6
AR 4-8
TN 4-7
VU 4-7
Fresno 9-3
CSU 7-5
Mercer I-AA
AL loss:
#6 AU
OSU wins:
#5 WI 12-0
#10 PSU 10-2
#16 MSU 9-3
MI 8-4
IN 5-7
RU 4-8
MD 4-8
NE 4-8
IL 2-10
Army 8-3
UNLV 5-7
OSU losses:
#4 OU 11-1
IA 7-5
In comparison form:
Top 10: OSU 1-1, AL 0-1
Ranked: OSU 3-1, AL 2-1
> 0.500: OSU 5-2, AL 5-1
P5: OSU 9-2, AL 8-1
G5: OSU 2-0, AL 2-0
i-AA: OSU 0-0, AL 1-0
Blowouts (>21 pts): OSU 8-1, AL 6-0
Sagarin’s SOS: OSU 49, AL 63 (doesn’t include the CCG for OSU)
It’s really OSU’s bad loss to Iowa versus OSU’s stronger schedule and dominance versus MSU.
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The coaching dominos are starting to fall now.
UCLA got Chip Kelly yesterday.
UF is hiring Dan Mullen from MsSU. That means Scott Frost is still available for NE.
TN is hiring Greg Schiano from OSU (co-DC).
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I didn’t see Brian’s post before I posted. Here’s an update on the A&M coaching situation. Sumlin hasn’t been fired yet and the Aggies are pursuing Jimbo Fisher.
http://m.chron.com/sports/aggies/article/Jimbo-Fisher-is-Texas-A-M-s-top-candidate-for-12383628.php
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Well, he’s gone now. Someone will pick up Sumlin, though. There are rumors that the AD at ASU is interested.
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Multiple sources are saying Mullen to Florida and Schiano to Tennessee. Evidently, Frost is undecided between Florida and Nebraska, so Florida is pulling the trigger on Mullen. Meyer expects Schiano to coach in the B1G CCG and playoffs if the Buckeyes make it.
Also, there’s a report out of College Station that Sumlin will be the next coach at AZ State.
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I wouldn’t blame Sumlin for wanting to leave. I don’t understand why Fisher would want to leave FSU for TAMU. Who would FSU chase? Frost? Someone else?
Mullen and Schiano sound like done deals. You have to think Frost to Nebraska will get done next week (after UCF’s CCG) or not at all.
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Now TN fans are protesting Schiano on the basis that he knew something about Sandusky’s abuse at PSU and said/did nothing.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21579125/tennessee-volunteers-no-longer-hire-greg-schiano-head-coach
TN has backed out of the memorandum of understanding they had with Schiano due to the protests.
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There were some major upsets, but I’m not sure a ton has changed since last week.
Candidates = 10
Undefeated (in bold) = 2
ACC (2):
A – Clemson
C – Miami
B10 (2):
E – OSU
W – WI
B12 (2):
OU
TCU
P12 (0):
N – none
S – none
SEC (3):
E – UGA
W – AL, AU
Other (1):
UCF
Games of the week:
Auburn vs UGA (538.com says AU wins 52% of the time)
OSU vs WI (538.com says OSU wins 55% of the time)
UCF vs Memphis (538.com says OSU wins 58% of the time)
OU vs TCU (538.com says OU wins 63% of the time)
Clemson vs Miami (538.com says Clemson wins 71% of the time)
…
The CCG picture:
ACC: Miami vs Clemson
B10: WI vs OSU
B12: OU vs TCU
P12: USC vs Stanford)
SEC: UGA vs AU
The CFP picture also seems to be getting more clear:
It looks like the ACC and SEC champs are all but locked in. A 12-1 OU and 13-0 WI would also make it. But if those 2 don’t both win out, things get more challenging.
Other possible teams for the CFP (11-2 or better):
B10 champ: 11-2 OSU
B12 champ: 11-2 TCU
Non-champs: 12-1 WI (CCG losers); 11-1 Miami (CCG loss); 11-1 AL (no CCG)
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The polls no longer matter, but they might give us some insight into what to expect on Tuesday.
http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches:
1. Clemson (25)
2. OU (12)
3. WI (21)
4. AU (4)
5. AL
6. UGA (8 pts behind)
7t. OSU
7t. Miami
9. USC
10. PSU
https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP:
1. Clemson (27)
2. OU (24)
3. WI (10)
4. AU
5. AL
6. UGA (3 pts behind)
7. Miami
8. OSU (7 pts behind)
9. USC
10. TCU
I think the CFP will basically agree with these. AL will probably drop to #5 and Miami to #7. If AL drops to #6, that would improve OSU’s odds at making the playoff.
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The Game set a new rating record for CFB on FOX, topping PSU @ OSU from earlier this year. It was the second most watched game on all networks behind only AL vs FSU the opening week.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/11/college_football_playoff_perfe.html#incart_river_index
A defense of the 4 team playoff as the perfect size for CFB.
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Matt Campbell is staying in Ames — sorry Tennessee, Florida et al: https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/college/iowa-state/randy-peterson/2017/11/27/peterson-campbells-new-3-5-m-contract-should-de-stress-isu-fans-worried-hes-got-wandering-eye/899925001/
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Let’s wait and see what the buyout clause says. $3.5M in Ames is a great salary, but if someone offers $5M+ elsewhere he has to at least listen. There is a definite cap to what he can achieve at ISU.
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Agreed, but ISU will be happy if he enables the Cyclones to stay on the P5 carousel when the next round of realignment occurs and the Big 12’s future is thrown into jeopardy.
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I read an article a few days ago that pointed out that the national championship game in college football has had very steady viewership since the 1990 season (no data before that). Then I took a quick look at the numbers.
The game (be it a bowl, a BCS bowl, the BCS NCG or the CFP NCG) has averaged 26.6M viewers over that span (standard deviation of 3.5M). Moving from the old bowl system to the BCS to the CFP hasn’t changed anything.
You can see most of the data in this article:
https://sportstvratings.com/ncaa-college-football-championship-viewership-1991-2015/4222/
I added in the numbers for the 2015 and 2016 season NCGs. There is some error with the older numbers as there wasn’t always just 1 bowl that impacted the national title, but they picked the bowl with the highest viewership that year that had a champion playing. 1991 is most impacted as it was a split title year.
If you ignore 1991, the negative outliers tend to be blowouts (Miami vs NE in 2001, USC vs OU in 2004). The ratings also depend on the brands, though, because some blow outs still did well (UF over OSU in 2006).
The positive outliers were the 2005 USC vs UT game and the 2014 OSU vs OR game. I think the star power and UT’s first title run in a long time helped in 2005 but it was also a great game. I think 2014 was driven by the hype for the first year of the CFP.
Only 8 of the 19 teams had more than 2 appearances. Of those 8, OSU was the only school with a noticeably positive impact on viewership (+1.5M viewers on average) while Miami (-1.4M), NE (-1.9M), OU (-2.0M) and LSU (-3.0M) were all quite negative.
Teams with fewer appearances tended to have more positive impacts. The top 5 teams in impact all appeared only once or twice. The best was UT (+5.5M) in their 2 trips, followed by OR (+3.3M in 2 trips) and CO (+2.3M in 1 trip). The worst 4 teams are those listed above since they had 3+ appearances each. The 2 infrequent visitors with notably negative impacts were TN (-0.86M in 1 trip) and Clemson (-1.2M in 2 trips).
The other notable impacts:
MI +1.75M in 1 trip
WSU +1.75M in 1 trip
USC +1.3M in 2 trips
ND +0.85M in 2 trips
AL, AU, UF, FSU and VT all had minor impacts (less than 0.32M) on average.
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footballscoop.com is a great source for the latest on the coaching carousel.
So far today…
Miss State: “We hear Jeremy Pruitt was invited, as was Brent Venables. Former State defensive coordinator Manny Diaz is also rumored to be a candidate… names we’ve heard that Cohen asked to interview include Joe Moorhead and Chad Morris… One interesting whisper we’ve heard is that Larry Fedora might be considered for the position… Stay tuned as we expect this one to wrap up in the next 48 hours. We’re told Cohen relies heavily on his intuition. When he sees and hears from “his man” he’ll know it and will be decisive.”
Arkansas: “Bo Mattingly tweets that he expects an announcement from Arkansas today that they will be hiring two search firms, one to assist in finding an athletic director, and the other for a head coach.”
Tennessee: “Mike Gundy notified Oklahoma State of his intention to speak with Tennessee about their head coaching job, and that meeting is scheduled for today according to a tweet from Brett McMurphy… David Cutcliffe wants to finish out his coaching career at Duke, per report.”
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As an LSU fan, you have to be loving all the coaching chaos in the SEC right now.
TN – horrible, desperate search
AR – trying to steal AU’s coach
MS – forced to keep their interim coach while they want for NCAA sanctions to be handed down
TAMU – begging FSU’s coach to leave for a lesser job
MsSU – lost their coach to UF
UF – missed on their home run swing but found a good coach at MsSU
AU – both the HC and DC are coveted by other schools while they prepare for the SECCG
Could it get any better for an LSU fan unless Saban suddenly retired?
From a B10 perspective:
* Names for MsSU include Joe Moorhead (PSU’s OC) and Ryan Day (OSU’s QB coach)
* Jeff Brohm (PU’s HC) has been mentioned in the TN search
* Not much news from NE. UCF’s Scott Frost seems the likely choice, probably announced next week. If he says no, I have no idea who they’ll get but Matt Campbell (ISU) and Justin Fuente (VT) have been mentioned.
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Brian – the team LSU butts heads with most often on the recruiting trail is the Team that shall not be named, and as luck has it they and LSU are the only SECW teams with full staffs out recruiting right now.
Tennessee will never be what they once were, no matter who they eventually hire. Mike Leach would be a fun addition to the SEC. Without Spurrier and Miles, colorful characters are in short supply.
Arkansas has a shot at Malzahn if Auburn loses this week. Auburn has a lot of injuries. Don’t count UGA out. If not Malzahn, maybe Memphis’ Mike Norvell.
Ole Miss made a good move in retaining Luke. Let the Ole Miss grad guide them through probation. They are following the LSU model of paying the HC less and spending big on assistants. Word is the Ole Miss budget for assistants is over $5 million, placing them in the top 4 with LSU, Alabama & Clemson.
Miss State should get a good up-and-comeing coordinator as their next HC who should do alright with Ole Miss on probation for the foreseeable future.
Mullen will do a good job at Florida.
If Malzahn goes to Arkansas, don’t be shocked if Bobby Petrino lands on the Plains.
Saban is 66 and can’t retire soon enough.
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Apparently MS State is getting PSU’s OC Joe Moorhead. He has no southern ties that I’m aware of, but he’s a good coach.
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After interviewing with Tennessee today, Mike Gundy announced he is staying at OK State.
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OK State should call his bluff i.e. send him packing if he meets up with TN again in a few years.
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11/29 11am EST footballscoop.com update
Tennessee: Sources tell FootballScoop Tennessee’s search is now centering on Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm.
Mississippi State: Joe Moorhead has been officially announced as head coach of the program. Moorhead’s introductory presser will take place Thursday at 11am EST.
Tennessee: SMU head coach Chad Morris interviewed with the Vols last night, per a tweet from Jimmy Hyams.
Florida State: The Seminoles have started to do background work on Oregon head coach Willie Taggart in the event that Jimbo Fisher takes the head coaching job at Texas A&M, Dan Wolken tweets.
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Now ESPN says TN has moved on to NCSU’s Dave Doeren.
Other tidbits:
* Moorhead tried to get MI’s DC Don Brown to come to MS State but Brown said no.
* OR State has hired UW’s OC Jonathan Smith (OR State is his alma mater)
* Jimbo Fisher to TAMU is sounding pretty likely. FSU is doing due diligence on OR’s Willie Taggart (he’s from FL). OR is also doing due diligence on potential candidates since they believe Scott Frost is unavailable (he’s taking the NE job). Meanwhile OR has offered Taggart a new deal to try to keep him. If he doesn’t sign that deal this week, look for Fisher to leave FSU (they have the same agent).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21601594/herm-edwards-interview-arizona-state-university-head-coaching-job
Herm Edwards is going to interview at ASU this weekend. Why would he leave ESPN to go back to college? He hasn’t coached in college since 1989. Has ESPN been giving him some hints about a lack of job security?
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In these times, it could mean dismissal for non-economic reasons. He does get a little chummy with a lot of the younger females that are either hosts or guests.
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The CFP rankings are as expected.
Relevant teams:
1. Clemson
2. AU
3. OU
4. WI
5. AL
6. UGA
7. Miami
8. OSU
9. PSU
10. USC
11. TCU
12. Stanford
14. UCF
16. MSU
17. LSU
20. Memphis
21. NW
23. MsSU
This is the best year of CCGs ever:
ACC: #1 vs #7
B10: #4 vs #8
B12: #3 vs #11
P12: #10 vs #12
SEC: #2 vs #6
Not playing: #5, #9
AAC: #14 vs #20
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions
Odds of making the playoff:
1. Clemson – 76%
2. OU – 65%
3. AU – 58%
4. WI – 46%
5. UGA – 44%
6. OSU – 33%
7. AL – 30%
8. Miami – 26%
9. USC – 10%
10. TCU – 7%
The SEC still has a decent shot at 2 spots.
Let’s look at the 2 teams from 1 conference scenario:
a. One option is 12-1 UGA beating 10-2 AU in the SECCG. If UGA wins out, AL has a 30% chance to make it (6th in likelihood to make CFP rankings under that scenario).
b. If AU wins, AL still has a 30% chance to make it (6th team in likelihood).
I think the committee will try to get 4 P5 champs rather than a second team from any one conference this year. There just isn’t a non-champ that would be clearly better than the 4th P5 champ and I think they’d prefer the diversity unless the situation forced them to admit a second team.
It’s important to remember that the odds are all very dependent on who wins each conference.
So instead, let’s look at the odds of each team making the CFP if that team wins out:
>99% – Clemson, OU, AU, WI
96% – UGA
89% – Miami
59% – OSU (only down 1% from last week)
30% – AL
23% – USC
20% – TCU
So the ACC champ, SEC champ, OU if it’s B12 champ and WI if it’s B10 champ are all locks. OSU is ahead of a non-champ AL, but not certain to make it.
The best hope for OSU is for TCU to win the B12. That gets OSU up to a 76% chance. The other games don’t really matter. Stanford winning is slightly better for OSU (79% vs 73%) but the ACC and SEC games have less than 1% impact on OSU.
Clemson is now their favorite to win the title:
Clemson – 22%
AU – 16%
OU – 14%
WI, UGA – 11%
OSU – 10%
AL – 9%
Miami – 3%
CCG favorites:
ACC: Clemson – 71%
B10: OSU – 56%
B12: OU – 63%
P12: Stanford – 55%
SEC: AU – 54%
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_college_football_post-season_games_that_were_rematches_of_regular_season_games
Interesting tidbit:
The SEC and B12 both have rematches in their CCGs and the regular season winner is favored to win again in both of them. Apparently history is on their side too. In CFB rematches, the regular season loser has as edge in bowl games (15-7) but the regular season winner has an advantage in CCGs (19-11). I guess the extra time off makes a difference for the coaches (more time to adjust schemes) and the players (extra motivation in that month of bowl practice).
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The Pac as well (Southern Cal and Stanford).
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Yes, I omitted them accidentally. Thanks for catching it.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/week-14-cfp-bubble-watch-will-come-alabama-vs-ohio-state.html
A final look at the resumes for all the CFP options. See the article for good formatting, but I’ll post some of the numbers below.
Team: SOS Range (obviously all but AL could add to this with their CCG)
Clemson: 5-30
Auburn: 10-30
Ohio State: 10-40
Oklahoma: 15-75
Georgia: 20-50
Miami: 25-55
Alabama: 30-55
Wisconsin: 40-60
TCU: 35-80
Team: vs 1-10, vs 11-25, vs 26-40, vs 41-80, vs 81+
Clemson: 1-0, 2-0, 4-0, 2-1, 2-0
Auburn: 2-1, 1-1, 0-0, 3-0, 4-0
Ohio State: 1-1, 2-1, 0-0, 4-0, 3-0
Oklahoma: 2-0, 1-0, 0-0, 4-1, 4-0
Georgia: 0-1, 2-0, 1-0, 5-0, 3-0
Miami: 0-0, 2-0, 1-0, 5-1, 2-0
Alabama: 0-1, 3-0, 0-0, 4-0, 4-0
Wisconsin: 0-0, 3-0, 1-0, 5-0, 3-0
TCU: 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 6-2, 4-0
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The B10 is 1-9 in the B10/ACC challenge so far with 2 more likely losses and 1 close game ongoing.
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And 2-11 it is (1 great game tomorrow night). Many of them were close losses and the ACC was favored in many of the games, but still a bad week for the B10.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/11/11_best_true_freshman_running.html#incart_river_index
A little trip through history. The 16 best true freshmen RB (FR weren’t eligible until 1972) in B10 history.
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Apparently TN has offered Dave Doeren the job. NCSU has upped their offer to keep Doeren. He is expected to decide today.
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Ole Miss will hear from the NCAA tomorrow morning with the final ruling from the infractions committee.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21629060/ole-miss-rebels-get-two-year-bowl-ban-scholarship-reductions-ncaa
And the NCAA did not buy Ole Miss’s defense. They basically doubled all of the self-imposed penalties plus added show cause penalties and suspensions for the people involved.
The NCAA added a second year of postseason ban
The NCAA added 13 more scholarships lost (11 over 4 years was self-imposed)
The University of Mississippi released a statement saying it would “vigorously appeal” the 2018 postseason ban, which it deemed “excessive” and “does not take into account the corrective actions that we have made in personnel, structure, policies and processes to address the issues.”
In the NCAA’s ruling, the Rebels, who were accused of 15 Level I violations, were admonished for lacking institutional control and fostering “an unconstrained culture of booster involvement in football recruiting.”
“This is now the third case over three decades that has involved the boosters and football program,” the panel stated in its decision. “Even the head coach acknowledged that upon coming to Mississippi, he was surprised by the ‘craziness’ of boosters trying to insert themselves into his program. At the hearing, Mississippi’s chancellor acknowledged his institution’s problem with boosters, characterizing one instance as ‘disturbingly questionable.'”
…
“The violations resulted from a culture of rules violations being acceptable in the Mississippi football program,” the ruling said. “Members of the football staff were often in regular contact with the boosters who provided impermissible inducements and benefits. Further, the football staff at times did not report known violations and falsified recruiting paperwork.”
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https://247sports.com/college/ole-miss/Article/Ole-Miss-football-Shea-Patterson-granted-permission-to-transfer-per-sources–111567091
One of the results of Ole Miss’s punishment is that senior players can freely transfer to other schools per NCAA rules. Apparently they are also being generous to younger players as they granted their star junior QB permission to contact other schools and be contacted by them.
Well-placed sources also told the Ole Miss Spirit that Michigan is probably the favorite to land Patterson, if he does execute a transfer from Ole Miss.
Those same sources told the Ole Miss Spirit that Patterson is using the opportunity to simply “explore options” and that it does not necessarily mean he is committed to leaving the Ole Miss program.
Does Jim Harbaugh just hate all his own QB recruits?
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SiriusXM to launch SEC radio early in 2018.
http://www.secsports.com/article/21617583/sec-siriusxm-launch-exclusive-new-sports-channel
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NC State’s Dave Doeren turns Tennessee down.
Who’s next? Former Vol QB and current USC OC Tee Martin?
http://footballscoop.com/news/source-dave-doeren-turns-tennessee-offer/
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21619748/ohio-state-quarterback-jt-barrett-surgery-play-big-ten-title-game
JT Barrett had surgery on Sunday for the knee injury the cameraman aggravated before the Michigan game but he will play in the B10CG. It’s not certain that he’ll start but it seems likely.
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Hot Mess Realized – Currie Fired: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21629194/tennessee-volunteers-athletic-director-john-currie-part-amid-tumultuous-coaching-search
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Even better are the details. He just took the job April 1st (but had been at TN for about a decade earlier in his career). They’ll owe him $5.5M if he’s fired without cause. Apparently Phil Fulmer will now take a more active role in the coaching search.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21632153/tennessee-volunteers-turn-phillip-fulmer-serve-athletic-director
Fulmer will get a 2 year deal to be TN’s new AD.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2017/11/championship-ticket-prices-market-which-games-are-hottest
CCG ticket prices in the secondary market:
P12: $93
B10: $196
ACC: $239
B12: $258
SEC: $726
One of those things is not like the other.
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Actually, two.
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True, but the P12 has the excuse of it being a Friday night game with nobody having a clear playoff shot.
I’m guessing UGA fans have driven the SEC price so high.
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On a related note, this article explains why they play on Friday evening (5pm local time) despite it hurting ticket demand. It’s all about the TV audience. The P12 has played their CCG on both Fridays and Saturdays over the past few years, and Fridays draw 5.5M viewers on average compared to 2.0M on Saturdays due to the competition from other CCGs. The extra value to the networks (which have the flexibility to choose Friday or Saturday) trumps ticket sales every time.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21631488/jimbo-fisher-leaving-florida-state-accept-coaching-job-texas-am
Jimbo Fisher to TAMU is official. 10 years and $75M explains why he was willing to take a sideways move like this.
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I do not think that the Fisher move is lateral. FSU is a better program than TAMU and much more likely to win an another national title. No doubt $75 M makes up for a few minor issues. The feedback that I am hearing from FSU fans (two sons went to FSU) is pretty much don’t let the door hit you in the butt on the way out.
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Yes, I was being generous to TAMU. I consider it a step down based on history too, but TAMU hasn’t been in the SEC very long so the program might move up to prince level. With TX to recruit from, I think you can win a title in TAMU (after Saban retires).
I’ve read in multiple places that Fisher was at odds with the administration and I’m sure the bad blood went both ways. You could see how quickly everyone turned on him this season after the QB got hurt and the team collapsed.
I wonder how LSU fans are reacting since a strong TAMU could hurt LSU’s recruiting efforts in TX.
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Brian – LSU had Jimbo locked up in 2015 until halftime of the A&M game when then-governor Bobby Jindal called LSU President F. King Alexander and shut down the deal. A&M’s AD Scott Woodward is an LSU grad and my former neighbor. Scott was Mark Emmert’s director of external affairs when Emmett was the Chancellor at LSU. Woodward went with Emmert to Washington. When Emmett fired Washington’s AD, he appointed Scott as interim AD. Scott did a great job and hired Chris Peterson away from Boise St. Prior to working for Emmert, Scott was a lobbyist in Baton Rouge. He’s a closer. He closed the deal with Peterson and he closed the deal with Fisher.
A&M is a step down from Florida State only in on-field performance. They have more money than any other P-5 school other than Texas. The Aggies have dropped close to $1 Billion into their facilities since joining the SEC. They are the closest P-5 school to Houston, the 4th largest city in America and a football hotbed. College Station though, is still a hell-hole.
A&M has all the tools to be a top 10 program, but they haven’t really been a factor since the 90s. The Aggies and UCLA are the two sleeping giants that have potential to move into the top 10. They both made major coaching upgrades last week.
LSU fans are concerned. Louisiana is a small poor state, but we have the best football talent (on a per capita basis) in the country. Since LSU is the only P-5 school in the state, we usually get who we want. Alabama takes one or two away from Louisiana every few years, but that’s about it. If Fisher and Saban both take a couple recruits away from LSU, that could be a problem. Houston and East Texas have always been fertile recruiting grounds for LSU. Texas kids that want to play in the SEC will generally choose between A&M and LSU, and to a lesser extent Arkansas.
Ole Miss getting hammered helps LSU in the short term. Mississippi has a lot of talent for a small state and LSU does well getting in Mississippi kids to come to LSU.
For LSU, the only saving grace in this Fisher to A&M matter is the feeling that A&M boosters will screw it up.
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Alan from Baton Rouge,
“A&M is a step down from Florida State only in on-field performance.”
That’s a pretty big area to lag in. FSU is a nouveau king with multiple national titles. TAMU is the other school in TX. That matters in recruiting.
“They have more money than any other P-5 school other than Texas.”
Other schools have outspent TAMU. AL has literally unlimited money. They’d raise a special tax if they needed more money to pay Saban and the voters would applaud.
“A&M has all the tools to be a top 10 program, but they haven’t really been a factor since the 90s.”
They have all the tools except the people. It remains to be seen if Fisher and the AD can control the boosters. We also don’t know if Fisher will succeed in the same division as a much better program (AL).
“The Aggies and UCLA are the two sleeping giants that have potential to move into the top 10. They both made major coaching upgrades last week.”
I think UCLA may succeed faster just because USC doesn’t have Saban.
“For LSU, the only saving grace in this Fisher to A&M matter is the feeling that A&M boosters will screw it up.”
Yep. Some schools just can’t get out of their own way. We’ll find out if TAMU is one or not.
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Bernie – coaching in the ACC is certainly an easier path to the CFP than the SEC West. FSU’s AD said today that they just couldn’t match A&M’s offer. I’ve heard that Jimbo was never satisfied in Tallahassee with facilities and the school’s commitment to the football team. The administration made several facility improvements over the last 8 years, and bumped Jimbo’s salary and assistant budget, but he always wanted more.
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Alan from Baton Rouge,
“Bernie – coaching in the ACC is certainly an easier path to the CFP than the SEC West.”
Agree 100% until Saban retires. The other coaches in the West are no more scary than Swinney, Richt and company.
“FSU’s AD said today that they just couldn’t match A&M’s offer. I’ve heard that Jimbo was never satisfied in Tallahassee with facilities and the school’s commitment to the football team. The administration made several facility improvements over the last 8 years, and bumped Jimbo’s salary and assistant budget, but he always wanted more.”
I think he wanted elite level facilities and support and FSU just isn’t quite there yet. AL probably spoiled him.
I thought something the FSU AD said was interesting:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21644446/florida-state-seminoles-athletic-director-stan-wilcox-said-school-match-jimbo-fisher-texas-contract
“We’re working on it. We’re getting there. The ACC Network is going to be up in ’19, so there will be additional resources coming into Florida State, just as all the other ACC schools, so at some point in time we may have the resources Texas A&M has, but it got to a point where a school came calling and they basically allowed Jimbo to make history and we just weren’t able to do that here.”
ACC people seem to have very high hopes for the ACCN but their TV deal is well behind the B10 and SEC’s. It will help reduce the gap, but it won’t generate more revenue than the SECN makes. I just wonder if the ACC schools are setting themselves up for disappointment like some of the P12 schools have experienced as their network has lagged their expectations.
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The only way the ACCN can equal the B1G and SEC TV deal is for magic dust to sprinkle the Research Triangle, giving it a football culture equal to the state of Alabama. And since that’s not happening anytime soon…
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Brian – Jimbo never coached at Alabama. He coached at Samford (88-92), Auburn (93-98), Cincy (99), LSU (00-06), and FSU (07-17).
The current coaches in the SEC West (other than Saban) may not not be more scary than Swinney, Richt and company, but the budgets, facilities, and fan support/expections are. And the talent level of the teams are different. Look at the recruiting ranking in a couple of months.
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Sorry Alan, I was thinking of him under Saban at LSU.
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CCG weekend is off to a great start with a great P12 title game. USC held on to win 31-28 to keep their slim CFP hopes alive.
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The early games were a mixed bag. The AAC game was all offense and went to OT. I think the lack of D shows exactly why the committee doesn’t respect UCF. They held back on OU for weeks for the same reason.
Speaking of OU, they dominated TCU again and look to be rolling. They’ll be a tough out for someone in the playoff.
In the afternoon game, UGA dominated AU. AU’s star RB had a bum shoulder which may have impacted things, but it’s interesting to see two blow outs go in opposite directions in the span of a month (17-40, 28-7 -> 45-47 aggregate and UGA didn’t get a true home game).
It looks like the hope for chaos will come down to the B10CG as expected. If OSU wins then the committee will have their first truly difficult decision to make (I don’t think 2014 was hard, we just weren’t used to how the CFP worked back then).
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The night games were also a mixed bag as Clemson crushed Miami while OSU screwed up enough to keep WI in the game all night.
Relevant results:
ACC: #1 Clemson over #7 Miami 38-3
SEC: #6 UGA over #2 AU 28-7
B12: #3 OU over #11 TCU 41-17
B10: #8 OSU over #4 WI 27-21
P12: #10 USC over #12 Stanford 31-28
Idle: #5 AL
My expected rankings tomorrow:
1. Clemson – a dominant win keeps them on top
2. UGA – beat #2 to revenge their only loss
3. OU – another dominant win, being #2 or #3 doesn’t matter
4. OSU – looked more dominant than the final score, being a champ with better wins just barely trumps having worse losses
5. AU – the committee doesn’t like to punish CCG losers too much and they just beat AL handily and were ranked well ahead of them last week
6. AL – the committee has been respecting head to head quite strongly this year
Everyone has been so busy arguing about OSU vs AL that we forgot to include a losing AU team in the mix. I think the committee will find AU’s recent domination of AL persuasive, especially since AU’s star RB was hurt for the CCG.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21643330/ucf-knights-coach-scott-frost-accept-job-new-coach-nebraska-cornhuskers
Unsuprisingly, Scott Frost is leaving UCF for Nebraska. Quite a contrast to TN’s coaching search. Maybe that speaks well to NE’s future as a program.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions
Odds of making the playoff:
1. Clemson – >99%
2. OU – >99%
3. UGA – 98%
4. OSU – 40%
5. AL – 28%
6. USC – 20%
7. AU – 11%
The SEC still has a decent shot at 2 spots. As I said above, I think there’s a solid chance that AU stays ahead of AL though. AU was the only really good team AL played and they lost badly. The committee has never punished a team significantly for losing a CCG. If AU was viewed as better than AL last week, should losing to the #2/3 team change that? We’ll see.
Clemson is still their favorite to win the title:
Clemson – 31%
UGA – 25%
OU – 21%
OSU – 10%
AL – 8%
AU – 2%
USC – 2%
CCG favorites:
3 of the 5 favorites by 538.com won with the 2 loses being by the least favored teams (55% and 54%).
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As expected, there’s a lot of campaigning for expanding the CFP to 8 teams right now (see Frank’s twitter). I think those arguments are misguided, or at least premature.
First, you need people to agree on what the playoff is for besides money. Is the goal to find the best team in the country or to reward the most deserving team? If you want the X best teams, then clearly requiring champions is a bad plan. If you want the most deserving teams, then you have to decide what that means.
How much emphasis should a championship carry compared to other factors? Do OOC games not matter? Is it fair to include some 8-5 team that lucked into a conference title over an 11-1 team that shared a division with another elite team?
I understand the calls for autobids to remove some bias issues. I even agree with them to an extent. The flaw is that everyone calls for unlimited autobids. I think they have to be conditional to be practical. Require at least 10 wins and/or being in the committee’s top 15 (or something similar). It’s not a hard standard for a P5 champion to meet, but it does maintain a standard of quality. For a G5 champion, I’d require that they be undefeated or ranked in the top 15. That leaves an on the field path to guarantee a spot without wasting a spot on a clearly undeserving team.
Another issue is that you’d devalue the CCGs. If you know that the winner is in, who watches if both teams are ranked high enough to get in? #1 vs #2 would be a pointless game, and that’s the worst thing you could ever do to CFB. You’d also have teams like AL that we’d all know are in while CCG losers would get left out. That’s quite the reward for winning your division.
The more important issue is that in this pursuit to get every possible contender in, you ignore all the unworthy teams also getting in. Most years don’t even have 4 teams that deserve a shot at the title. Never have 8 teams all deserved a shot. Being capable of winning 3 straight games and deserving a chance at the national title aren’t the same thing. These are amateur student-athletes that shuoldn’t be subjected to endless physical punishment for our benefit. 4 teams is more than enough to get all the deserving teams. If you can’t convince an informed group of people that you’re a top 4 team then you really don’t deserve a shot at a national title.
But even if you decide it’s worth it, then you have to deal with the logistical issues. When and where do you play the extra games? Playing next weekend would be hard to arrange. Do you play mid-December instead? How do you deal with finals? Or do you push things back into January? How do you get the presidents to approve extending into a second semester? The south won’t agree to playing games on campus if it means a chance of playing outdoors in the north in December. Neither are all northern stadiums currently made to use in December. Do you reuse the CCG sites? What about NFL conflicts? How do you expect to get fans to travel to yet another round of postseason games? How do you deal with the potential lawsuits over extra head injuries to unpaid student-athletes?
I believe there will be a lot of pushback from the bowl system and the presidents. The TV networks will want to renegotiate CCG contracts. How much more would the quarterfinals bring in after subtracting any losses elsewhere?
In short, there should be no sympathy for OSU or AL if they don’t get in. Their performance on the field will be to blame.
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I would much prefer a system whereby the committee would rank P5 conference champions, rank the top 5 non champions, and either through a random draw or deliberate pairings match P5 champs against non champs in the bowls*. The two highest ranked and victorious champs (with appropriate provisions made in the event all lose) after the bowls advance to the national championship game.
*Given that there are 6 NY bowls 5 doesn’t have to be a fixed number. It could be expanded to include ND or a deserving G5 team or contracted to exclude a fluke or otherwise undeserving P5 team. Withing these parameters the committee would have complete discretion.
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I’d vote for UCF for the #4 spot. A pox on both the Buckeyes’ and the Tide’s houses.
I also think Georgia should be #1. They avenged their only loss ( a road loss on the Plains) with a win on a neutral site against the #2 team in the nation. Clemson lost to Syracuse (4-8), and Oklahoma lost to Iowa State (7-5).
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They’ve always given Clemson some latitude for that loss since their QB was injured.
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Clemson and OU had better wins than UGA.
Ohio St. getting in would have been a joke after the Iowa game. No championship team loses like that to a mediocre team. And Ohio St. didn’t beat any ranked teams on the road. If Ohio St. had gotten in it would have discredited the whole system. They would have gotten the benefit of a doubt in a close decision in 2014, 2016 and 2017. That would tell you the system was rigged.
Instead, the Big 10 joins the Big 12 and Pac 12 in having their champion left out in 2 of 4 years of the playoff.
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No championship team schedules Mercer the week before the only the only really meaningful ranked team, get handled by said meaningful team which then loses by 21 a week later. How ‘bout OSU plays Mercer instead of OU, and drops the cross division game with Iowa for another cupcake? Or better yet have Alabama play Georgia as a conf game instead of Mercer. And schedule another P5 in OOC.
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2015 national champs Alabama played Charleston Southern.
2016 national champs Clemson played South Carolina St.
2014 national champs Ohio St. didn’t play any games at their opponents field ooc. (Navy was neutral). Cincinnati, Navy, Kent and Virginia Tech was not awe-inspiring, especially considering they lost to Virginia Tech.
So your comment is a total non-sequitir. Yes championship teams do schedule weakly.
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bullet,
“2015 national champs Alabama played Charleston Southern.
2016 national champs Clemson played South Carolina St.
2014 national champs Ohio St. didn’t play any games at their opponents field ooc. (Navy was neutral). Cincinnati, Navy, Kent and Virginia Tech was not awe-inspiring, especially considering they lost to Virginia Tech.”
And you really don’t see the difference between those schedules? Really?
2015 AL – WI (10-3) in Jerryworld plus MTSU, ULM and Charleston Southern (I-AA) at home
2016 Clemson – @AU (8-5) plus Troy, SCSU (I-AA) and SC (6-7) at home
That’s 1 road OOC game for Clemson, and that was over a mediocre AU team. The only ranked team on any of those schedules is #21 WI.
“So your comment is a total non-sequitir. Yes championship teams do schedule weakly.”
I think his point was that CFP winners might schedule I-AA cupcakes but champions shouldn’t.
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bullet,
“Ohio St. getting in would have been a joke after the Iowa game. No championship team loses like that to a mediocre team.”
More of a joke than a team that didn’t beat a single top 15 team all season? At least OSU proved they were capable of competing with a top 10 team.
“And Ohio St. didn’t beat any ranked teams on the road.”
OSU beat an 8-4 P5 team on the road just like AL did. OSU won by more, too. And if you look at computer rankings, MI is ranked higher than MsSU in the Massey composite so those two wins are equivalent.
OSU also beat one top 10 team at a neutral site, another top 10 team at home and blew out a top 20 team at home. OSU’s ranked opponents all just happened to be home or neutral site games this year. How many ranked teams did AL blow out?
“If Ohio St. had gotten in it would have discredited the whole system.”
The system is discredited because a team with no top 15 wins, only 9 P5 games and a I-AA game in the penultimate week got in over a P5 champion with 2 top 10 wins, 11 P5 games and no I-AA games.
“That would tell you the system was rigged.”
Unlike 4 southern teams getting in, 3 from ESPN-owned conferences including 1 on the eye test with no important wins?
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Of course you leave out that Alabama had a wins over 17 and 23. Nobody respects Michigan except a few computer polls. Despite their name recognition, polls picked 4 loss Miss. St. and N. Carolina St. and Boise and South Florida over Michigan.
If you want to talk about computer polls, Sagarin actually has Alabama #1 (Ohio St. is #4). ESPN’s FPI also has Alabama #1 (Ohio St. is #2). S&P has Alabama #2 (Ohio St. is #1 in that ranking).
I don’t know how much betting lines really reflect, but Alabama is the early favorite over Clemson, so betting people have a high opinion of them.
Ohio St. only faced two teams with winning records on the road–Iowa 7-5 (24-55) and Michigan 8-4 (31-20). The committee does look at that. Alabama had A&M 7-5 (27-19), MS. St.8-4 (31-24) and Auburn 10-3 (14-26). Every other SEC team that went to Auburn lost by at least 21 (including Georgia)-they were very good at home. Iowa lost to Purdue and Penn St. at home and didn’t score more than 45 other than Ohio St. until their season finale vs. Nebraska.
The committee didn’t think it was a close call. Most people other than Ohio St. fans and ESPN announcers didn’t think it was a close call. In 4 years a 2 loss team has never made the playoffs, including the Penn St. Big 10 champs who beat Ohio St. last year. No playoff team has ever lost a regular season game by 31 points before either.
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bullet,
“Of course you leave out that Alabama had a wins over 17 and 23.”
Because I said top 15 wins, which they don’t have. I also excluded OSU’s win over #16 MSU in that sentence by only mentioning top 10 wins for OSU.
“Nobody respects Michigan except a few computer polls.”
I really don’t care. They’re 8-4 just like MsSU. They’re OSU most equivalent road win to AL’s win @MsSU. What’s AL’s equivalent to OSU blowing out #16 MSU? Or to OSU beating #6 WI at a neutral site? Or OSU beating #9 PSU at home? Oh wait, AL didn’t beat anyone from the top 15 so they don’t have any equivalent wins.
“The committee didn’t think it was a close call.”
They did the week before when they said there was very little separation between #5-8.
“Most people other than Ohio St. fans and ESPN announcers didn’t think it was a close call.”
ESPN has been more pro-AL than anyone outside the SEC. Lots of other people have said it was close, a tossup, etc (the internet is full of such articles).
“In 4 years a 2 loss team has never made the playoffs, including the Penn St. Big 10 champs who beat Ohio St. last year. No playoff team has ever lost a regular season game by 31 points before either.”
No playoff team has ever failed to have a top 15 win before this year either. AL beat absolutely nobody all season. The committee has now told conferences to ignore all the previous years of suggesting tough schedules, instead play as many cupcakes as possible to avoid risking a second loss at all costs. Everyone should drop major P5 foes from their OOC schedule to play I-AAs instead since that’s what impresses the committee.
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Brian – I really wanted to stay out of this discussion, as I hate Alabama and wish they weren’t in the CFP, and don’t think they deserve to be in either. In my opinion, Ohio State, Alabama, and USC all had more compelling reasons not to be placed in the CFP than arguments in their favor of inclusion. Since none of them had distinguished themselves as worthy, I would have voted for UCF as the no. 4 seed.
As I stated on this board years ago, I favor a 6-team playoff that allows for auto-bids for the P-5 conference champs, and one at large for the best of Notre Dame, a G-5 champ, or a P-5 non-champ. The two best teams get a bye, and the play-in games take place on campus the week after the Army/Navy game.
I do take exception to your statement that “AL beat absolutely nobody all season.” My Tigers had a bad September, getting blown out in Starkville and inexplicably losing to Troy at home. LSU has and should be penalized for one the worst losses in the history of the program. After the Troy loss, I wondered if LSU would win another game this season. But LSU rebounded to win six of their next seven games. Granted, Florida, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and A&M were not where they usually are, but Florida was still a ranked team when LSU beat them in the Swamp, Ole Miss, Arkansas and A&M are rivalry games, and Tennessee gave my Tigers their best shot in Knoxville the week after Jones was fired and in a game that featured tropical storm force winds and rain. LSU also overcame a 20-point deficit to defeat Auburn. That’s the same Auburn team that played current #1 Clemson within one score on the road, destroyed then #1 Georgia, and comfortably handled then #1 Alabama. A team that came back from a twenty point deficit against Auburn is not “nobody.”
While LSU didn’t beat Alabama, my Tigers did beat them up. The reason why Alabama didn’t look like Alabama last month is because of all the injuries they sustained against LSU. While it was a 14-point loss, LSU did outgain the Tide in yardage and first downs. The difference in the game was an interception really hurt, Alabama made plays when they needed to, and the game took place in Tuscaloosa.
Pre-season, LSU was ranked 12 (coaches) and 13 (AP). Currently, LSU is ranked 17 (CFP), 16 (AP), 14 (coaches), and 12 (ESPN Power Ranking). But for an inexplicable loss to an inferior opponent (sound familiar), a two-loss LSU would have been in the top 10 and in a CFP bowl. If the Tigers beat Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl, they will likely finish in to top 10.
LSU was not a championship caliber team this season, but they did beat a team that was #2 last Saturday afternoon, and they certainly aren’t “nobody.”
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Alan from Baton Rouge,
“In my opinion, Ohio State, Alabama, and USC all had more compelling reasons not to be placed in the CFP than arguments in their favor of inclusion. Since none of them had distinguished themselves as worthy, I would have voted for UCF as the no. 4 seed.”
I fully agree that there was no great or clear choice for #4 (even more reason not to expand to 8 teams). I also said repeatedly I didn’t want OSU in. I just have a major problem with their rationale for choosing AL.
“I do take exception to your statement that “AL beat absolutely nobody all season.””
Please take that statement in context. I’m not talking literally nobodies, but elite teams that constitute statement wins. Did AL beat any P5 champs? Any P5 division champs? Any top 10 teams? In the CFP discussion, those are the only teams that are really somebody. You can’t justify being a top 4 teams based on results against teams not in the top 10-15. In the broader discussion of CFB that are a lot more somebodies (8-4 and above more or less). LSU finished #17 (a very good season with a new coach), right behind MSU. I didn’t include MSU as OSU beating somebody either until discussing the MOV. It’s much like how OSU beating MI was dismissed by bullet elsewhere because they weren’t ranked when OSU played them.
“LSU also overcame a 20-point deficit to defeat Auburn.”
And that’s an example of beating somebody.
“LSU was not a championship caliber team this season, but they did beat a team that was #2 last Saturday afternoon, and they certainly aren’t “nobody.””
As I said, I meant that solely in the context of the CFP discussion. Sorry for the unintended offense.
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Why do Division I athletes that are, functionally, literal professional athletes (even if all they are paid is scholarships, they’re still receiving payment) not deserve the same shot at championships that Divison II and III athletes get in the same exact sport when Division II and III athletes don’t get scholarships? Those are ACTUAL amateurs and they figure it out.
That’s the whole problem with the “But they’re amateurs!” argument. All the other amateurs (even in high school) figure it out on the field. Only in major Division 1 college football is the champion of a sport determined in a board room by 13 people who have major biases towards a small number of the schools. Its ridiculous and, quite frankly, the only explanation for it is that there are a lot of people personally profiting off of the system as is existing and denying entry and funds to other members of the system. They’re leaving money on the table so they can better restrict the ability of other people to gain entry to a piece of the money being made.
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Some notes from CCG weekend:
* The AAC title game set records for total yards and total points
* UGA won their 3rd SECCG in 6 tries, their first SEC title since 2005 (long time for a prince)
* The SEC East won the the SEC for the first time since 2008
* USC won their first P12 title since 2008 (long time for a king)
* The P12 South won the P12 for the the first time in the CCG era (since 2011)
* Miami made their first ACCCG
* The ACC Atlantic won the ACC for the 7th straight time
* TCU made the first CCG appearance for any of the new additions to the P5 level since modern expansion
* The B10 East is now 4-0 in the CCG
* OSU won just its second B10 title under Urban Meyer despite his 72-8 record
* OSU has been at least tied for 1st in its division in all 6 seasons under Meyer. AL is also on 6 straight years at least tied for 1st place.
* WI made its 5th CCG in 7 years (1 due to 2 teams being ineligible). Not quite as good as OU’s 8 in 11 years in the old B12, UF’s 7 of 9 to start the SECCG, or AL’s recent 4 of 5, but still impressive.
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Just FYI:
ESPN has a 4 hour special tomorrow to reveal the CFP rankings from 12-4pm. The semifinal pairings are scheduled for 12:30pm with the rest of the top 25 at 2pm.
Remember that the battle for #5 is also important for the Orange Bowl. OSU can’t go since they won the B10, so the highest ranked team among AL, AU and WI that isn’t in the playoff will go. Assuming the SEC gets the Orange Bowl, the B10 is still likely to get 3 teams in the NY6 (OSU, WI, PSU). Thankfully for the rest of the bowl matchups much of the SEC was also down so we may still get decent games.
Obviously twitter will keep you informed as things progress.
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The AP poll is out. Bama is #4.
https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
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The CFP went with AL. I’m glad OSU isn’t set to get crushed by Clemson again but this is the wrong decision. AL went 0-1 against the top 15 teams. They did nothing to deserve being rewarded.
Sugar – #1 Clemson vs #4 AL
Rose – #2 OU vs #3 UGA
5. OSU
6. WI
That means:
Orange – WI vs Miami
Other obvious results:
Fiesta – OSU vs USC
No B10 team in the Citrus
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This feels like 2011 all over again. Alabama loses their most important game of the season and it ends up being meaningless. Alabama did not deserve to get into the BSC NCG over OK State then, and they didn’t deserve to get in the CFP now.
It looks like the Citrus will be LSU v Notre Dame.
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Most of he committee’s explanations make no sense either.
Quality wins? OSU has 3 better ones than AL.
AL looks better? OSU had more blow outs during the season despite playing a tougher schedule.
I understand the Iowa loss hurting OSU. It should. But shouldn’t AL have to beat someone to get in?
The committee has become just like the old polls where W/L record is everything. This is a complete disincentive to schedule tough OOC games. Apparently the right choice is to play 8 conference games, nobody OOC and miss the CCG. That’s a terrible message to send.
I really hope the semifinals get poor ratings this year (non-traditional Rose Bowl plus undeserving AL making 2 southern teams in the Sugar).
Go Clemson!
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Its as though the CFA / Big10Pac10 dichotomy never went away.
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The problem is that their explanation completely changes week to week and season to season. One article I saw best shows the issue I have with the committee when it said that it seems like they pick their top 4 and THEN come up with an explanation as to why they ranked the teams that way instead of doing it the other way around.
Which means, basically, that its all about the $$$$ and the actual play on the field is completely irrelevant.
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From FootballScoop.com: Central Florida: UCF and Kevin Sumlin are engaged in talks, tweets Ryan Bass of the CBS affiliate in Tampa. Bass says Sumlin is AD Danny White’s top target.
From the Baton Rouge Advocate: Tennessee reaches out to Les Miles.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_a72c811c-d7e6-11e7-accb-4398ba21346b.html
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There’s also a rumor that Tee Martin would be willing to be an OC under Miles, but I would think he’d want a C-I-W assurance. Maybe he also has the Memphis HC job (should M. Norvell go to Arkansas) in his pocket.
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Alan,
How do LSU fans feel about TN potentially hiring Les Miles?
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Brian – Despite being fired, Les still has an incredible amount of good will built up in Louisiana. Nobody really hates him. Most wish him well. He still lives in town. Most fans would be fine with Les getting another job, even the Tennessee job. LSU doesn’t play the Vols again until the 2022 season, when Les would be 69 years old. It’s certainly not like having another former coach at Alabama.
At halftime of the Auburn game this season, the 2007 BCS championship team was honored. Les was with them, held up the crystal ball trophy, and the place went nuts. People are sick of Les’ lack of offense and sick of losing to Alabama, but people aren’t really sick of Les.
Plus, Les getting another coaching job reduces LSU’s buyout. Here’s a blurb about his contract from an article published soon after his firing.
“Miles must at least attempt to find a new coaching job, a provision in a buyout clause that will pay about $9.6 million over the next six years — more than $133,000 per paycheck… The buyout is mitigated if he finds a new job. The payments would be offset against his new salary.”
It doesn’t sound like Les is getting the Tennessee gig, though. There has been local speculation about whether Les will apply for the UL-Lafayette job. Lafayette is 45 miles west of Baton Rouge.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/12/ohio_states_big_ten_championsh.html#incart_river_index
The B10CG drew an 8.0 overnight to become Fox’s highest rated CFB game since 2013’s B10 CCG.
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Well my interest in the football invitational championship just plummeted.
With four conf champions invited it would have been ok, a championship playoff that had to reduce number to fit bracket of four. This is great (sarcasm), three teams within modest driving distance and one from flyover country. All while screwing the traditional Grandady. Way to promote/expand the CFB brand (again, sarcasm). I wouldn’t miss a Rose Bowl, but this really won’t be one anymore than home UCLA games are.
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I feel your pain. I have no interest in any of the CFP games and won’t watch them. We get 2 B10 vs P12 match-ups but neither is in the Rose Bowl. I hope ratings are down as only the south was invited to the playoff this year.
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The major bowls are set apparently.
Sugar: Clemson vs Saban
Rose: OU vs UGA
Orange: WI vs Miami
Fiesta: PSU vs UW
Cotton: OSU vs USC
Peach: AU vs UCF
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21654912/2017-cfp-new-year-six-bowl-games-announced
Cotton: OSU vs USC – Fri. 12/29 @ 8:30pm
Fiesta: PSU vs UW – Sat. 12/30 @ 4pm
Orange: WI vs Miami – Sat. 12/30 @ 8pm
Peach: AU vs UCF – Mon. 1/1 @ 12:30pm
Rose: OU vs UGA – Mon. 1/1 @ 5pm
Sugar: Clemson vs Saban – Mon. 1/1 @ 8:45pm
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All the B10 bowls:
1. Cotton – Ohio State vs USC
2. Orange – Wisconsin vs Miami
3. Fiesta – Penn State vs Washington
4. Outback – Michigan vs South Carolina
5. Holiday – Michigan State vs Washington State
6. Music City – Northwestern vs Kentucky
7. Pinstripe – Iowa vs Boston College
8. Foster Farms – Purdue vs Arizona
* The B10 should have a solid chance in all of these games unlike many years
* MSU and NW got jumped by MI purely due to brand. It happens a lot but it’s a shame.
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Alan,
Are you excited for #17 LSU vs #14 ND in the Citrus Bowl? It’s always fun to beat them.
Other good bowls:
Alamo: #13 Stanford vs #15 TCU
Camping World: #19 OkSU vs #22 VT
Arizona Bowl: NMSU vs Utah St
http://www.elpasoproud.com/sports/location-could-be-factor-for-nmsus-bowl-chances/858966024
This will be NMSU’s first bowl since 1960 (also against Utah St), ending the longest bowl drought in I-A. NMSU’s president said this was the only bowl invitation they could afford to accept due to finances. Good for them. Go Aggies!
NMSU Chancellor and President, Garrey Carruthers believes location could be the deciding factor if the Aggies go bowling.
“If you stick us too far out east, then it becomes a financial issue with our fans,” said Carruthers. “If you’re obligated to buy X number of tickets and we can’t sell them to our fans, then it would become a costly enterprise.”
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Brian – yes. If LSU isn’t in the CFP, this is the best case scenario. Going back to the 70s, LSU and Notre Dame have played some great regular season games. Over the last 20 years, we’ve met the Irish in 3 bowl games. LSU’s series record with Notre Dame is 5-6, with LSU snatching defeat from the jaws of victory at the 2014 Music City Bowl. I would think the Irish will get the Tigers best shot.
Also, the Saints are playing at Tampa the day before the Citrus Bowl. It will make for a great football trip. I’m certainly looking forward to it.
In addition to your list, here’s some other good bowl games:
Holiday: #16 Mich State v. #18 Wash State
Taxslayer: #23 Miss State v. Louisville (8-4)
Outback: Michigan (8-4) v. South Carolina (8-4)
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21657239/gus-malzahn-agrees-new-deal-remain-coach-auburn-tigers
Gus Malzahn used AR’s interest to get $7M per year from Auburn. I guess having every coach in the West getting $4M per year wasn’t enough. Soon they’ll all be getting $7M/year. And Malzahn was upset about finicky the fans were before.
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Herm Edwards to ASU is official. Let’s see how that goes.
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Dan Wolken wrote and interesting article for USA Today about the choice of Alabama. Bottom line, if Ohio State had played Akron instead of Oklahoma, they would have finished 11-1 B1G champ with one bad loss to Iowa. A one loss OSU team definitely gets into the playoff. What is Southern Cal did not play Notre Dame and lose to them. Then USC would be a one loss conf champ. Why play those games if the committee then punishes you at the end of the year. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2017/12/03/college-football-playoff-committee-got-wrong-alabama-brand-loyalty-only/917333001/
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What’s with all this nonsensical self-righteousness? Alabama scheduled Florida St. who was ranked #3 preseason. They ended not being very good (in part because their QB got injured in the Alabama game), but Alabama did not schedule 4 patsies ooc. They scheduled one team who was supposed to be a playoff contender.
I don’t think Alabama has any business scheduling FCS schools, but only Notre Dame, UCLA and USC can claim they never have. And the Big 10 rather disappointingly, reversed its commendable edict to not play FCS schools.
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So because a team did the best it could to schedule tough, that means we should just give them a pass on having an easy schedule?
Someone should let UCF know that “trying” is all it takes to have your schedule accepted as tough.
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bullet, it may be nonsense, but if Ohio State does not play Oklahoma, or if Southern Cal does not play Notre Dame, they are both one loss P5 champs and there is no conversation about Bama. The author is not defending either OSU or USC, but saying that something is wrong with the system.
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bullet,
“What’s with all this nonsensical self-righteousness?”
Much of the rest of the country is tired of the chickenshit scheduling practices of southern football teams. Especially when they get rewarded for it.
“Alabama scheduled Florida St. who was ranked #3 preseason. They ended not being very good (in part because their QB got injured in the Alabama game), but Alabama did not schedule 4 patsies ooc. They scheduled one team who was supposed to be a playoff contender.”
No, you don’t get to play that card now. You discounted VT for OSU in 2014 up above because they weren’t good when the same argument would apply to them. It’s not what you intended, it’s what actually happened. FSU struggled to go 6-6. AL did schedule 4 patsies OOC even if they didn’t intend to do so.
“I don’t think Alabama has any business scheduling FCS schools, but only Notre Dame, UCLA and USC can claim they never have.”
Playing a handful of them in your history is very different from playing one every single season. Even worse is scheduling a pseudo-bye the week in the penultimate week every year. Combining the two should be embarrassing.
http://www.footballgeography.com/history-of-fbs-i-a-vs-fcs-i-aa/
Total I-AA games played before 2014 (because that’s the data I found):
Teams playing less than 10:
ACC – none
B10 – MI, OSU, PSU, MSU, PU
B12 – UT, OU
P12 – UCLA, USC, UW, Stanford, UC, Cal
SEC – TN
Ind – BYU, ND
# of teams playing 20 or fewer:
ACC – 6 (3 played 19)
B10 – 13 (RU at 35)
B12 – 6 (1 at 19)
P12 – 11 (OrSU at 21)
SEC – 12 (5 have 16-19)
“And the Big 10 rather disappointingly, reversed its commendable edict to not play FCS schools.”
Because nobody else would join them (Delany expected others would join in). Also because getting 7 home games can apparently be hard when you’ve got 5 road conference games. It’s still banned if you have 5 home B10 games (barring a last minute need to replace someone I suppose).
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21667748/lavar-ball-pulls-son-liangelo-ball-ucla
UCLA had the temerity to indefinitely suspend the 3 players caught shoplifting in China since they have to go through a review for violating the school’s student code of conduct that has a section about stealing. In retaliation, LaVar Ball has pulled his son out of school without even telling the coaches. He will not transfer, his dad will prepare him for the draft personally.
The youngest son is also supposed to go to UCLA for a year two years from now, but sources close to UCLA say that won’t happen. The NCAA has also hinted that the youngest son may well be ineligible because of his signature shoe that his dad’s company has produced.
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http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/36209056-75/uos-tentative-88-million-athletic-sponsorship-deal-with-nike-comes-with-strings-attached.html.csp
The power of Nike is a little much. They have a lot of strings attached to their new 11-year, $88M deal with Oregon. Players who need it may end up not getting their ankles taped to save the school money. UO would give up the right to review products before they’re sold.
Why doesn’t Nike just produce some athletic tape with their logo on it rather than risk ankle injuries?
A review of the proposed new contract’s language shows that it allows Nike to dictate “from time-to-time” what specific uniforms or equipment UO sports teams must use; contains financial penalties if too many football players tape up or “spat” their ankles over their shoes in a game, even for medical reasons; and bans the Duck Store and other campus retailers from selling any product made by Nike’s big competitors — Adidas, Under Armour, Reebok and Puma.
It also gives Nike the first crack at filling any large order of apparel bearing the university’s “O” logo for groups that have nothing to do with sports: student clubs, alumni groups or academic departments.
…
The UO also would see an increase in the royalties it receives from the sale of Oregon-themed Nike products, to 15 percent from 12 percent. Its royalty rate for shoes will stay at 5 percent.
…
The new deal also contains a number of other changes:
* UO athletes no longer have to use only Nike brand for several types of equipment, including bats and fielding gloves for baseball and softball, golf clubs and lacrosse sticks.
…
* The UO would lose its rights to review artwork and designs of new Nike products with the university’s logo prior to their commercial production. The university also will no longer receive random samples of those products for inspection.
…
Under that policy, Nike considers most ankle taping or “spatting” that obscures the logos on its shoes a “material breach” of contract, subject to termination after one written warning. It’s primarily an issue in football where ankle taping is common and Nike gets the most television exposure from university sports.
The UO’s policy does make some allowances for players who may need to tape their ankles for “a bona-fide medical necessity,” provided Nike is notified before a game with a doctor’s note. But that leeway is minimal.
The contract still allows Nike to reduce its base annual sponsorship payment to the UO by up to 5 percent for every game where more than five single shoe logos are obscured, even if all the taping is done for medical reasons.
Similar ankle taping policies have proliferated in college sponsorship deals in recent years, for Nike, Adidas and Under Armour. But they’ve been criticized for potentially influencing medical decisions for players and for requiring players’ health issues to be shared with shoe companies.
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As a CFP hater, I’d like to point out that 2017 would be a great year to have the old bowl system back. Now obviously it depends on the year and how you want to account for realignment, but look at the results:
Version 1 – Use the current tie-ins
Rose – #5 OSU vs #8 USC
Sugar – #2 OU vs #3 UGA
Orange – #1 Clemson vs #4 AL
Cotton – #6 WI vs #7 AU
Fiesta – #9 PSU vs #11 UW
Peach – #10 Miami vs #12 UCF
Version 2 – Use the old tie-ins
Rose – #5 OSU vs #8 USC (B10 vs P12)
Sugar – #3 UGA vs #1 Clemson (SEC vs ?)
Orange – #2 OU vs #4 AL (Big 8/B12 vs ?)
Cotton – #15 TCU vs #7 AU (SWC/B12 vs ?)
Fiesta – #6 WI vs #9 ND (? vs ?)
If you still obsessively need a NCG, add a play-in game afterwards.
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The best year under the old system was 1970. We had three national champions, Nebraska, Ohio State and Texas. Three is obviously better than one. More is more.
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Fine by me. Arguing about 1994, 1997 and 2004 is more fun than any other BCS/CFP years.
I’d actually care about OSU vs USC if it was the Rose Bowl. Since it’s not, the season is over to me.
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CNBC reporting that Fox looking to sell a significant portion of their assets to Disney. The sale would include the regional sports networks for Fox. I am surprised about Fox’s desire to sell off the RSN’s. Seems that ties into their baseball package. Although in some regions many of the larger market teams have launched their own networks.
No idea what that means for College Sports Rights down the road but Fox will continue to keep FS1.
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Perhaps this will drive Frank to write a new post. It’s been 7 months and the page usually gets a little squirrelly when well above 1000 comments as it is now.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/fox/disney-will-reportedly-get-fox-regional-sports-network-but-not-fs1-in-upcoming-deal.html
Though the RSNs are reportedly quite profitable, John Ourand of Sports Business Journal reports that 21st Century Fox CEO Rupert Murdoch has been lukewarm on them for a while thanks to rising rights fees and declining revenues.
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“Fox would sell movie and television production assets and keep its news, sports and broadcast network.“
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/12/05/disney-and-fox-are-closing-in-on-deal-could-be-announced-next-week–sources.html
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I can’t find any confirmation on which side would end up with BTN. Is it considered a regional sports network or is part of Fox sports?
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@Brian – I’ve asked around about it, but it’s not clear. Best guess is that BTN is part of the cable group that would get transferred to Disney under this deal (as it seems like Fox is getting rid of everything except for the bare minimum to avoid antitrust scrutiny). If that occurs, BTN would be under the ESPN umbrella just like the SEC and ACC Networks.
PS – A new post on the playoff is coming soon. I know it has been a looooong time.
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Really think this is a game changer for live sports rights. I would imagine the Murdoch’s have plans for the remaining Fox properties such as Fox News, Fox Broadcast and FS1. If they are concerned with scale before the sale to Disney they will have to either look for major acquisition opportunities with the proceeds or they will look to exit all together. Can’t see them just hanging on to the remaining properties.
I think this announcement/rumor is, on the whole, negative for the B1G. Maybe good overall for BTN, however, they liked the synergy with Fox Sports. I guess that synergy could revert back to ESPN.
Long term it will be interesting to see what happens to FS1 and Fox Sports in general. Will they be a player in the next round of rights fees for the NFL, MLB and college sports.
Overall I am just surprised by the sale of the RSN’s. I get that they are concerned about the profit potential with cord cutters etc.. but that same concern would likely apply to all subscription based/bundling distribution models.
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Frank the Tank,
“@Brian – I’ve asked around about it, but it’s not clear. Best guess is that BTN is part of the cable group that would get transferred to Disney under this deal (as it seems like Fox is getting rid of everything except for the bare minimum to avoid antitrust scrutiny). If that occurs, BTN would be under the ESPN umbrella just like the SEC and ACC Networks.”
Would this automatically mean ESPN gets the controlling 51% too, or would the B10 have added a clause that they could buy back that extra bit if Fox sold off their stake? You’d like to think the B10 would have a choice in whether Disney has majority ownership or not.
“PS – A new post on the playoff is coming soon. I know it has been a looooong time.”
Any topic will be welcome.
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https://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2017/12/implications-on-college-sports-content.html
Matt Sarz has a brief blog post about the potential impacts for college sports fans of the Fox sale to Disney.
Highlights:
* Some content is contracted directly to the individual regional sports networks. Think of things like Saint Louis men’s basketball on FOX Sports Midwest & Big West sports on the group of RSNs in southern California. Assuming the RSNs are sold, I would think that those contracts would be included in the sale.
One place where this affects FOX Sports’ national college sports portfolio is the Big 12. Five schools have contracts with FOX Sports RSNs to air at least one football game per season and other content that the school elects to produce for television:
FOX Sports Southwest or Oklahoma
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St.
TCU
Texas Tech
…
* The ACC maintains a big presence on FOX RSNs through a sublicense from Raycom, as Raycom own rights to both a regional cable package & over the air syndication package, but that content will move to the ESPN-owned ACC Network in the late summer of 2019.
* Some content on FOX Sports RSNs are tied to national TV contracts with FOX Sports. Most likely this content would not move with these RSNs to ESPN, unless ESPN were to come to an agreement to have FOX provide this content to them. This content is as follows:
…
Where would this content go to is anyone’s guess, assuming it doesn’t follow the RSNs. It could end up on FS1 or FS2. Maybe there’s a push for this content to move exclusively to FOX Sports Go. CBS Sports has a sublicense for Big East basketball that calls for 20-30 games. So far, the number has been at 20 each year.
* Where does BTN fall in this equation? I believe it is managed separately from the FOX Sports RSNs. FOX Sports Media Group defines BTN as its own entity, separate from the RSNs, FS1, FS2, etc.. Doesn’t mean it couldn’t be part of the sale though.
* FOX College Sports is listed under the FOX Sports umbrella, but if they sold the RSNs & the underlying content to ESPN, there would be very little for that suite of channels to air.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/12/05/fsu-derwin-james-nfl-draft
We’ve got the first player skipping his bowl to prepare for the draft and he’s not even claiming an injury as the reason. FSU’s star S Derwin James tweeted this:
On to the next chapter of my life I will be entering the 2018 NFL Draft and will not participate in the bowl game, FOREVER NOLE NATION
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http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/11/30/deshon-elliott-becomes-second-texas-player-to-skip-bowl-game-senior-year-for-nfl-draft/
Two juniors from UT are also skipping their bowl to prepare for the draft.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/college-football-playoff-choosing-alabama-ohio-state-blow-espn.html
A look at how the decision to rank AL #4 is bad for ESPN and the 4-team playoff.
The committee’s bold departure from precedent surprised many who did not feel the committee had it in them. But the choice also made little business sense. This is a crucial year for the playoff to rebound with big ratings for ESPN. That would have been more probable with Ohio State in the field.
Not having Ohio State leaves the playoff without a significant ratings brand. Alabama is important. But there’s no casual SEC fanbase. They watch, come what may. They were already on board with Georgia in the field. Alabama does not add anything ratings-wise.
Ohio State brings casual fans from the Northeast and Midwest with it. Four of the top seven audiences for Playoff/BCS title games came when Ohio State was playing. Two of the other three involved Texas. One could extrapolate Michigan and Notre Dame would also have that type of impact, but that’s it. It’s no exaggeration to say the difference between Alabama and Ohio State in the field could be a few million viewers.
This field avoided one unpopular pitfall: rematches. Auburn having played both Clemson and Alabama during the regular season could have been a major issue. An Iron Bowl rematch would have seen the ratings crater. From a rematch perspective, Clemson-Alabama in an opening round is better than Clemson-Ohio State. Most importantly, it guarantees those schools won’t meet in the final for a third straight season. The first two meetings did not rate well.
But this field has another potential flaw. It is about as regional as college football could have produced. Interregional conflict is a more attractive selling point. Georgia and Alabama are SEC teams. Clemson, located in an SEC state, is about as close as one can come to being an SEC team without being in the conference. Oklahoma is not in the “South,” per se. But it borders three SEC states. Wherever one views it, OU does not bring another region along with it.
There’s little reason for the Midwest, Northeast, or West Coast to get invested in this tournament. That may not diminish the enjoyment of SEC fans any. But it should hurt the ratings and ESPN’s bottom line. Note that the Auburn-Oregon BCS title game in 2010 drew a bigger audience than either Alabama-Clemson game.
This will be the fourth iteration of the College Football Playoff. First-year ratings were great. The next two years were dreadful. ESPN invested hundreds of millions per year in this event. The network spent entire seasons relentlessly promoting it. Ratings for the final in year two or three were no better than a BCS title game.
No structural reasons will impede this year’s games rating well. The semifinals are on New Year’s Day instead of New Year’s Eve. The bowls involved are the Rose and the Sugar. College football is not enduring any political campaign against it. If the playoff games don’t rate better this postseason, it will be a sign that the event, as currently constituted, just isn’t that popular.
Rejecting Ohio State cost ESPN a needed ratings boost. Choosing Alabama negated any claim to precedent and credibility that the committee process had. The Big Ten, one of the principal organizers of the event, will be livid. This choice wounded the four-team format. The only question whether the wound is in the foot or somewhere more severe.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/heres-why-there-will-not-be-an-eight-team-college-football-playoff-anytime-soon/
4 reasons the CFP won’t expand to 8 teams, at least not anytime soon, according to Dennis Dodd.
Paraphrased:
1. The money isn’t there.
2. Player health (and related lawsuits) concerns.
3. I-A would probably to give up CCGs and maybe the 12th game too.
4. It doesn’t necessarily fix the problems but creates other problems.
I think part of #3 is a logistical issue that could be worked around if #1 wasn’t true. For enough money, CCGs could go away or become flex-scheduled games in the final week of the regular season.
The other half of #3 ties directly into #2. More games means more risk. At some point you have to draw a line. Based on the calendar, I think the presidents already feel like the CFB season is maxed out. I don’t see them adding games any time soon.
#4 is gibberish. No system is perfect but you can avoid many of the issues with proper choices. The biggest problem is the current inclination to protect the bowl system and use it as part of the playoff. That forces timing and travel issues.
For those that want an NCAA playoff just like the other levels of CFB, I’d point out a few things:
1. That would require 12 teams at minimum since the NCAA believes in autobids but also says only half of the slots should be autobids. The NCAA might accept autobids for the P5 plus the top G5 champ with 6 at-larges as a starting place. Over time it would want to grow to 10 autobids (all champs) so at least 20 total teams.
2. Schools would have to be willing to play in the north in December. Likewise, all northern schools would need to keep their facility available for games. That has a financial cost as well as an opportunity cost.
3. More teams means more travel for fans. People already complain about having a CCG, a semifinal and maybe the NCG. How will they feel about short-notice trips to small college towns in the middle of nowhere during December plus another game or two of tickets to buy?
4. You have to kill the major bowls to do this. Many of these games have to be played on campus long before the holiday break. Once you lose, you’re done. Other than the semifinals on 1/1, no other good teams will be playing. If they aren’t hosting the semifinals, who would the Rose Bowl get to play and who would watch it? Will fans and players be happy with a road trip to Madison or Starkville in mid-December as their reward for a good season?
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As 3B, you also would be granting the conferences a carte blanche in regards to how they determine a champion, e.g. no divisions and varied deference to rankings vs. on-the-field (head to head, common opps, point differential) performance – i.e. would a bunch of roadblocks be thrown amongst their conference brethren to keep Iowa State, Vanderbilt, WSU, NU and Wake out of the auto-bids if their OFP surpassed the king or prince, but that king is maybe a 1 close loss against that team (e.g. Iowa State, had it won out in the 12 vs. Oklahoma this year bereft of a rematch in the XII championship game).?
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That is related to another concern I have, which is how conference champion are named now. 3-4 games per team are completely ignored when naming division winners. The makes perfect sense in the world of amateur college sports where money isn’t on the line. But the CFP is essentially a professional postseason. If you want auto-bids for champions into something as lucrative as the CFP, shouldn’t all 12 games matter beyond just for seeding? After all, the OOC games matter when choosing which G5 champion gets an auto-bid.
I believe that if you require auto-bids, then you also should require a uniform process for scheduling and determining conference champions. Everyone plays 9 conference games and at least 10 P5 games. I-AA wins don’t count. If you lose 2+ OOC games, that counts as 1 loss in the conference standings. If you win 2+, that counts as 1 win. Single OOC games don’t impact conference standings (so you can risk 1 loss). Every conference plays a CCG (or none do). And while we’re at it, make all CCGs use the 2 top teams.
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Though I don’t really care for the current system I would consider a change whereby the committee restricts itself to selecting playoff teams from among conference champions (G5 schools included) a big improvement.
Another method could be to rank (P5) conference champions by number of FBS wins, ties broken by SOS; the committee could then be restricted to overriding the rankings only to insert a deserving independent or G5 champ into the top 4.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21679513/willie-taggart-leaving-oregon-take-florida-state-coaching-job
Willie Taggart has left OR to take over at FSU.
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http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_5e20cb1c-d6ed-11e7-85b4-739a81cadb3c.html
A detailed look at the attendance issue in CFB. It’s from the POV of LSU and the SEC but it really applies to everyone.
A few tidbits:
* The SEC does an annual survey of all season ticket holders about the game day experience. The other conferences should be doing that if they aren’t.
* The problems vary from school to school, but cost is becoming an issue everywhere.
* Schools are moving to more premium seating and smaller total capacity may be the future.
* The length of games isn’t an issue, it’s the length and number of stoppages (TV timeouts, replays).
* Ticket sales are fine at many places, it’s the number used that’s troubling.
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The LSU article seems to be prevalent around the country. Not sure I totally agree with the idea of creating more premium seats. Wisconsin is planning on something similar which will likely reduce capacity somewhat. Unfortunately it seems CFB is heading in the same direction as the NFL. It’s becoming too beholden to TV.
For me a couple of things that are important about attending events in person. (1) Do I have comfortable seating, (2) Am I being overpriced and (3) is the Jumbotron going to actually show replays and video of other games going on around the country?
I find myself wanting to stay home so I can watch other games going on as well.
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On twitter, Frank’s being having a conversation about playoff expansion to 8 teams and autobids among other things. I wanted to discuss part of it here.
Frank tweeted:
“Also, the 4-loss P5 conference champ is a red herring. Even in the unlikely event that it happens, the point is that they won it 100% on-the-field without some old guys in a conference room in Dallas using the “eye test”. The 12-0 team that lost can still get in as an at-large.”
I don’t think red herring is the right term. 7-5 (4-4) WI won the B10CG in 2012. 6-6 (5-3) GT was in the ACCCG in 2012. 6-6 (4-5) UCLA was in the P12CG in 2011. Yes there were sanctions involved in all cases (GT was tied with UNC and Miami, though) but that could happen in the future, too.
B10:
In 2000 the B10 had 3 co-champs at 9-3, 8-4 and 8-4. 1990 was a similarly bad year in the B10.
P12:
Years with a 4-loss champ – 1983, 1987, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1999
The B12 had 3 unranked teams play in their CCG and one of them won (1996 UT was 7-4 before the CCG). The SEC has had several 3-loss division winners including 4 outside the top 20. The ACC has had 6 division winners not in the top 20.
The point is that this does happen somewhat regularly in P5 conferences. Expansion should make it less common (more teams increases the odds of having at least 1 really good one), but it will still happen. And we’ve seen extreme differences in the strengths of the two divisions in several P5 conferences, so having a weak division winner is not that uncommon.
The point is that a 4-loss P5 champ is very possible.
What the pure autobid side never justifies is why these 4-loss and worse teams should get in. Often nobody in their own conference believed these teams were the best in their conference. Even if they were, nobody believed they were the best team in the country. For people to take the playoff seriously, there needs to be some quality control. A simple, objective rule like requiring at least 10 wins (or no more than 3-losses) would go a long way to reducing these concerns.
The reason this matters is money. ESPN doesn’t want to pay billions of dollars and end up with games nobody is watching because they are mismatches. If you insist on unrestricted autobids then you’ll get a lot less money.
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Another point of discussion is how much money an expanded playoff would make.
Frank tweeted:
“On that front, I agree that it has to make financial sense for the Power Five in particular. I think making their conference championship games into guaranteed annual playoff games would raise rights fees, but that would need to be vetted.”
Frank’s scenario is an 8 team playoff with 6 auto-bids (all P5 + 1 G5) and 2 at-larges. The P5 CCGs would become play-in games though the losers might also get in.
Presumably the semifinals and NCG wouldn’t change much in value due to playoff expansion (maybe over time, but not right away). So the gain has to come from the quarterfinals and/or CCGs.
The B10 CCG started off at about $24M per year. That’s presumably gone up with the new media deal but other CCGs earn more or less than the B10. Let’s just call it $35M per game for all P5 conferences right now, or $175M per year.
The current CFP TV contract averages about $475M per year for 12 years (around $60-65M per P5 conference per year in payout).
Looking at viewership numbers, those values track pretty well (CCG ~ 7.5M, semi ~ 21.5M, final ~ 28.5M). The semifinals tend to draw about 3 times as many viewers as the average CCG in the CFP era while the finals draw 4 times a CCG. Perhaps we can infer that a quarterfinal might draw double what the average CCG draws.
Doing rough math:
$475M/10 = $47.5M -> NCG = $190M, semis = $143M each -> quarterfinals = $95M each
Quarterfinals = $380M per year -> about $50M per year per P5 conference using the same payout ratio as the CFP has now (about $3.9M per school).
But at what cost do we get these games? The B10 makes about $40M per year from the non-NY6 bowls and general bowl revenue (APR rewards, etc). How much value do the bowls lose with an 8-team playoff? What happens to the NY6 bowls? What about the injury risks and the cost of lawsuits?
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Why is “injury risk and cost of lawsuits” a concern for the multi-billion dollar group of the NCAA, but not the other groups that technically do the same exact things in the same organization?
Is the health of the players who can make millions of dollars the only health anyone cares about?
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I-A players are bigger and/or faster and better so their collisions carry more force and energy and thus can cause more damage. Also, potential NFL players have higher future earning potential than most people so a knee injury literally carries more financial risk for them than for players at the lower levels. Third, I-A players are the group that might choose to opt out of more games to prepare for their NFL future instead. Fourth, the lower levels play only 11 regular season games and are much less likely to have a CCG so they have 2 fewer games in the season.
Everyone’s health matters and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a push from some to shorten the playoffs in the lower levels at some point.
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Coaching carousel tidbits:
* AR has hired SMU’s Chad Morris as their new HC
* Memphis’s Mike Norvell signed a contract extension so he is seemingly off the board
* TN is still looking at UGA’s DC, AU’s DC and AL’s DC
* Rice hired Mike Bloomgren (Stanford’s OC) as their new HC
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It looks like TN has settled on AL’s DC Jeremy Pruitt. They are trying to finalize the deal but apparently he’s accepted the job.
It has to hurt TN fans just a little to have to take an AL guy (grew up there, played at AL, coached HSFB in AL, coached at AL) to try to rebuild their program.
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I cant picture Mel Tucker (UGA DC) based on the calamity he went through as Trestman’s DC for the Bears. As long as Chris Conte didnt want to start his coaching career under him, its all good. Greg Blache should have got a shot somewhere.
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http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/football/assistant
USA Today’s annual assistant coach salary database is out. 15 coaches made $1M or more (#1 is $1.8M), 3 of them are from the B10 (all at MI). 9 are from the SEC.
School totals:
1. AL – $6.0M
2. LSU – $5.9M
3. Clemson – $5.7M
4. MI – $5.6M
5. UF – $5.0M
6. AU – $4.9M
7. TAMU – $4.8M
8. FSU – $4.7M
9. UW – $4.7M
10. TN – $4.7M
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https://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2017/11/tv-facts-figures-for-2017-college.html
Some details on CFB coverage this season.
Big Ten
* Thirty regular season games aired on broadcast television between ABC & FOX with an even split of fifteen games.
* In terms of cable networks, the breakdown is as follows:
BTN: 41
Aired over 32 telecast windows
ESPN: 5
ESPN2: 6
ESPNU: 1
Per contractual rules, only non-conference games can air here.
FS1: 12
* Regular season primetime games per entity, including weeknight games. Anything after a 6pm ET start:
ABC: 4
BTN: 9
ESPN: 1
ESPN2: 1
FOX: 3
FS1: 5
* Some fun facts re: the Big Ten appearances:
Courtesy Sean Kelly, Nebraska never appear on an ESPN platform in a Big Ten controlled game. Rutgers also never appeared on an ESPN platform.
Michigan never appeared on the four primary packages’ cable networks (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU or FS1).
Rutgers led with ten games on BTN.
All of Michigan St.’s appearances on FOX Sports platforms were on FOX broadcast network.
All of Penn St.’s appearances on ESPN platforms were on ABC.
http://mattsarzsports.com/Contract/GameList/BigTen/2017#.Wim01jdrxPZ
He also has these notes on the B10 TV deal:
ESPN Rights Notes
27 total games.
All intraconference games must air on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2.
Non-conference games can air on ESPNU.
At least six games in primetime on ABC or ESPN.
FOX Sports Rights Notes
24-27 total games to air on FOX & FS1.
Up to nine games per season will air in primetime
FOX will air the conference championship game every season.
FOX Sports will have the first choice of the weeks they want the top choice of games.
Every Big Ten school must make two appearances on BTN. At least one of those appearances must be from a conference game.
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Oregon is staying in-house and will elevate Mario Cristobal from interim to HC.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2017/12/89126/ohio-state-played-in-four-of-the-top-seven-most-watched-games-of-2017
Fox got their money’s worth this year. 4 of the 7 most viewed CFB games this season were on Fox (and 5 of the top 8 involved the B10).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21720515/athletic-director-chris-del-conte-leaving-tcu-university-texas-austin
UT finally has a new AD, taking TCU’s AD. Mike Perrin had been filling the role as interim since 2015.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/want-to-win-a-heisman-follow-these-8-simple-steps/
The 8 steps that tell you who will win the Heisman in any year.
1. QB or RB
2. P5 or ND
3. 3 or fewer losses
4. If a QB, run for 15+ TDs and you’re a lock
5. If a QB, get 30 TDs, 1 rushing TD and no more than 11 INTs or you’re out
6. If a QB, have fewer team losses than the other QBs
* Exception: If a QB with more losses registered 5,000 or more yards of total offense in a season when no other QB cracked 4,000, that QB wins the Heisman. (the Robert Griffin rule)
7. If a RB, get 1980 yds from scrimmage and 16 rushing TDs or you’re out
8. If a QB remains, he wins. Otherwise the RB wins.
* Exception: If the remaining QB had fewer than 4,000 passing yards and 40 touchdown passes, and a surviving RB eclipsed 2,200 yards from scrimmage on a team with zero or one losses, the Heisman goes to the running back. (the Reggie Bush/Derrick Henry rule)
Baker Mayfield locked it up on step 8 this year.
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The Cleveland Browns all but locked up the #1 draft pick today. They are 0-13 with games remaining vs 7-5 Baltimore, @ 4-9 Chicago and @ 10-2 Pittsburgh. Three NFL teams only have 3 wins right now, the max the Browns could get, and 2 of them play each other. That leaves just the New York Giants with only 2 wins as competition, and the Giants face an easier schedule.
That would make the Browns the first team to have the #1 pick 2 years in a row since the Browns did it in 1999-2000 (also Bengals in 1994-95, Bucs in 1976-77).
Which QB will they take?
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It does not matter what the Browns do, they will make a mistake. Too bad Ryan Leaf is not there. He would be the perfect QB pick for the Browns.
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Yes, they will. But it’s fun to rubberneck as they make killer mistakes year after year.
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However, Tebow is still around. Brian Sipe might be their best bet.
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They could bring back Tom Tupa and fill 2 roster spots (QB, P) with one player.
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The Houston Chronicle ranks the top 20 college football programs.
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/college-football/article/Rating-the-country-s-top-20-college-football-12419219.php?utm_campaign=twitter-premium&utm_source=CMS%20Sharing%20Button&utm_medium=social
“A Chronicle panel of 10 writers and editors put their noggins together to come up with a catalog of the most important factors making a program great.”
The top 10 factors:
1. Facilities.
2. History (recent and past).
3. Money (that a school spends – and not on recruits).
4. Recruiting (the area from which to draw).
5. Conference.
6. Attendance/game day atmosphere/campus geography.
7. Brand name/prestige.
8. Exposure/TV.
9. NFL draftees.
10. Coaching (stability).
Top 20 football programs:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. (tie) Oklahoma
4. (tie) USC
6. Michigan
7. Notre Dame
8. Clemson
9. LSU
10. Texas A&M
11. Florida State
12. Florida
13. Georgia
14. Auburn
15. Miami
16. Oregon
17. Penn State
18. Wisconsin
19. Nebraska
20. UCLA
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Penn State seems a little too low in my view. With the exception of Wisconsin and maybe Oregon all of these schools have a legit shot at winning a NCG. For Wisconsin to win you would need a JJ Watt and Russell Wilson type talent to be on the same team. Too bad they missed each other by 1 year.
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I think they undervalued history, perhaps because they’re from Houston and wanted TAMU up higher. Past success is a huge predictor of future success in CFB while it’s easy to waste money.
TAMU has been a 0.600 team over the past 20 years and all-time. All their national title predate WWII. They have 3 division titles since joining the B12 in 1996 and 1 conference title in 1998. They’ve won 10+ game only twice since 1996 (1998, 2012 – 11 each time). They are #5 for highest CFB expenses according to USA Today.
WI has been a 0.710 team over the past 20 years (0.583 all-time). Their national titles also predate WWII. They have 4 division titles since 2011 and 5 B10 titles since 1996. They’ve won 10+ games 10 times since 1996. They are #6 for highest CFB expenses according to USA Today.
PSU has been a 0.644 team over the past 20 years (0.688 all-time). They have 2 national titles from the 80s. They have 2 division titles and 4 B10 titles since 1993. They have won 10+ games 8 times since 1993. They are #7 for highest CFB expenses according to USA Today.
I understand they value the TX recruiting grounds highly, but TAMU has always had those and hasn’t outperformed PSU and WI. Perhaps they’re overvaluing SEC membership since it’s new to them and they’ve bought the hype.
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They don’t want all the hate mail they would get if they left A&M off the list.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21741604/liangelo-lamelo-ball-serious-talks-lithuanian-basketball-club
LaVar Ball has signed a deal for his two younger sons (the thief from UCLA and the would-be junior in HS) to play hoops in Lithuania for a crappy team that can barely survive financially.
Vytautas plays in the Lithuanian (LKL) league, but it is unlikely the Ball brothers would see significant playing time in that league. Vytautas also plays in the lesser competitive Baltic League, where the teenagers could see more playing time. The team has discussed a role of 20 to 25 minutes a game apiece in the Baltic League, a source told ESPN.
…
The club plays in a 1,700-seat arena; 500 of those seats are reserved for team sponsors and their friends. Tickets cost around 5 euro.
The team has no general manager and doesn’t practice regularly due to the poor financial situation.
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BTN will go to Disney along with the other Fox regional sports nets?
That’s interesting if it happens.
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I haven’t seen any definitive statement either way. My guess is that means BTN wouldn’t be sold to Disney, but it’s only a guess.
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https://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/12/10/college-footballs-declining-ratings-2017-media-circus
SBJ analyzed CFB ratings this season. Mostly they were down, but CFB is hard to analyze year to year because it is so regional and dependent on certain teams doing well.
Per Karp, here’s where the networks finished for average viewership for this year’s CFB regular season:
CBS: 4.951 million viewers, down 10% from 5.489 million in 2016.
ABC: 4.203 million, down 18% from 5.097 million.
Fox: 3.625 million, up 23% from 2.951 million.
NBC: 2.742, down 3% from 2.814 million.
ESPN: 2.155 million, down 6% from 2.300 million.
FS1: 819,000, up 4% from 743,000.
You can see the impact of Fox picking up half of the B10 TV package as Fox’s ratings were way up while ABC dropped off a lot. Likewise FS1 was up (my math says that’s 10%, not 4%) and ESPN dropped some. CBS suffered because the SEC was down this year. NBC is dependent on which of ND’s games are at home.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/12/12/how-espn-college-football-playoff-saving-bowl-games/940670001/
How ESPN and the CFP are killing bowl games (or saving them).
“The Playoff had had a bigger impact than expected in terms of diminishing the other bowls,” said Gary Cavalli, the former executive director of the San Francisco Bowl Game Association, which founded the Foster Farms Bowl in 2002.
…
It’s part of the fallout of an industry that is now dominated by the Playoff, which started in 2014. It’s also a result of market saturation. In 1996, there were only 18 bowl games, virtually all of them run by these stand-alone non-profits.
This year, there are 40 major college postseason games, starting Saturday, with a record 17 of them owned by larger for-profit businesses, including three pro sports franchises: the 49ers, Detroit Lions (Quick Lane Bowl) and New York Yankees (Pinstripe Bowl).
The biggest game, the national championship, is owned by the College Football Playoff Administration LLC, a for-profit entity whose members are the 10 major college football conferences and Notre Dame.
The other 13 “for-profit” games are owned by ESPN Events, a division of the cable sports network. That’s crept up considerably since 2005, when ESPN Events owned just three of the 28 bowl games.
…
The Miami Beach Bowl drew just 15,262 to last year’s game at Marlins Park, whose capacity is about 37,000. After buying it from the AAC, ESPN Events moved it to a 20,500-seat soccer stadium in Frisco, Texas, where Southern Methodist (7-5) will face Louisiana Tech (6-6) in the inaugural Frisco Bowl on Dec. 20.
The move underscores why ESPN values these lower-tier games. It’s not because of crowd size. It’s about television viewership, too. Average bowl game attendance has declined for nine straights years, down to 41,718 last season, the lowest mark since the 1940s, when there were only around a dozen bowl games, according to NCAA records.
But smaller crowds and the struggles of some of these games don’t mean the overall bowl industry is in trouble. Far from it. The business model is just shifting.
…
The bowl games collectively paid out about $622 million to conferences and schools last season, including $441 million from the Playoff alone, according to NCAA financial records reviewed by USA TODAY Sports. After $105 million in expenses, the conferences and schools took home a $517 million “profit.”
“The bowl system is really healthy,” said Clint Overby, vice president at ESPN Events.
For conferences that participate in lower-tier games, it’s healthy in large part because the Playoff subsidizes them even if they don’t participate in the Playoff.
…
It’s a system that works well for the biggest bowls and all the leagues and teams that play in the postseason. But it hasn’t exactly worked for some of the smaller local stand-alone organizations whose visibility and importance have been shrunk by the Playoff. Those businesses needed to sell tickets, sponsorships and TV rights to keep the lights on and meet the payout required to the participating conferences that put their teams in their games.
And that’s why some have bailed and other business models have taken over instead.
…
“The old non-profit model, at least in our case in the most competitive sports market in the country, was probably going to be more and more difficult,” said Cavalli, who recently retired from the San Francisco Bowl Game Association. “From our standpoint, it made sense to turn the game over to a successful, deep-pocketed pro team that had a new stadium, lots of personnel and the ability to sell sponsorships as part of packages rather than as a one-off.”
In effect, ESPN Events and pro franchises are saving or stabilizing these lower-tier games. Both recognize the demand for them, from teams, fans and viewers.
“What really gets missed sometimes is that college football is wholly unique in that it has a full-on celebration of its season every year at the end of the year through the bowl system,” Overby said.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/12/13/playoff-format-coaching-carousel-recruiting-mailbag
Andy Staples explains why he thinks the CFP is unlikely to expand or change their crtieria.
From David: Will the football powers-that-be more likely (A) push for an eight-team playoff and have to share with the UCFs of the world or (B) redirect the committee to further weight conference championships?
I don’t think the powers that be will do either of these things.
A) Here’s why it’s unlikely you’ll see a push for an eight-team playoff. The aggrieved leagues to this point have been the Big 12 (twice), Big Ten (once) and Pac-12 (twice). The Big Ten and Pac-12, which will fight anything that lessens the value of the Rose Bowl, want no part of a larger playoff because it would—you guessed it—lessen the value of the Rose Bowl. An eight-team playoff would almost certainly require jettisoning the bowls from the process. Quarterfinals and semifinals would be played on campus, and while that would be awesome for the viewers and for the teams with home-field advantage, it would not be awesome for the Rose Bowl. Currently, ESPN pays about $80 million a year to broadcast that game. If it never was a playoff semifinal and featured (at best) the second-best teams from the Big Ten and Pac-12, it would lose value on its next deal.
Also, any attempt to lengthen the season—even if it would affect only a few teams—will not happen in this climate without either taking away games on the front end or giving the players additional money. Since each quarterfinal playoff game would be worth about $30 million to the leagues and each Power 5 conference title game is currently worth about $30 million to each league, eliminating conference championship games would actually cost leagues money. Meanwhile, pruning the regular-season schedule back to 11 games would be met with even more resistance since most Power 5 schools use that 12th game as a seventh home game.
You also mentioned sharing with the UCFs of the world. That wouldn’t be an issue. The Group of Five leagues get money from the playoff now even though one of those teams would have to move heaven and earth—i.e. schedule great Power 5 teams in the non-conference and beat them while also winning every conference game—to actually make the playoff. This is why the idea of a separate Group of Five playoff is a non-starter. The Power 5 would just say “We guess you don’t need the money from our playoff.” And since that figure would still be more than what the Group of Five leagues would make from their own playoff, the Group of Five leagues aren’t about to do more work to make less money.
B) I don’t see them changing the weights for any of the playoff selection criteria because they already spent a year hashing them out when they created the playoff. Yes, the SEC got two teams into the playoff this year. But the Big 12 might have gotten two into the playoff in 2014 had Ohio State and Florida State lost their conference championship games, and the Big Ten might have gotten two into the playoff in 2016 had a few more committee members voted Big Ten champ Penn State ahead of Washington. Choosing the four best—rather than worrying about which team won out of a group of peer institutions that chose to get together in 1910 or 1933 or 1996—could potentially benefit each league as much as it could potentially harm each league.
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Something we haven’t discussed here much is ASU hiring Herm Edwards. It’s part of a broader restructuring of their football program. He is expected to be hands off in terms of actual coaching and instead be a CEO focused on intangibles like vision, leadership and motivation. The aim is for the assistants to do the actual coaching.
I wonder about that plan, especially now that the DC has decided to leave after the bowl game (family issues). Will they find an experienced DC that’s ready to be half of a head coach?
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Some USC fans are angry with the P12 and want USC to at least investigate going independent. Jon Wilner has a brief article and then a 30 minute podcast with a USC blogger on the subject.
1. I do not think USC should leave the Pac-12.
2. I do not believe there is any chance in the foreseeable future that the Trojans will become an Independent, or even seriously consider it.
3. There are non-lunatic USC fans who have become increasingly frustrated with the Pac-12 and believe that it would be in the school’s best interest to at least explore the option of becoming an Independent.
4. The Hotline always seeks to address topics that, while not popular, help inform the public discourse — that expose factions of Pac-12 fans to alternate viewpoints.
(This is an alternate viewpoint; it’s worth hearing.)
Combine those four matters, and you’ve got the latest Pac-12 Hotline podcast, with guest Ryan Abraham, publisher of USCfootball.com and co-host of the Podcast of Champions.
Abraham doesn’t believe the Trojans will make a serious push to independence anytime soon.
But he’s of the opinion that the issue should be discussed in the halls of power of Trojanland.
Maybe those discussions lead to a determination that USC is best off in the Pac-12.
(I have a difficult time believing the academic side would be comfortable breaking away from an affiliation with Stanford and the UCs, to say nothing of all the legal and contractual issues that would accompany a real-world push to depart.)
But Abraham and his like-minded peers are of the opinion that the threat of independence could spur change within the conference, perhaps not in the immediate future but possibly when the Pac-12 prepares to renegotiate its Tier 1 deals in five years.
That’s the key:
USC fans are no different than fans of other schools in their vexation with conference matters, first and foremost the Pac-12’s lagging media rights revenue.
The difference … if one were to game this out … is that USC is losing more cash because of the current structure (compared to its open-market potential) and that the Trojans could conceivably have an option.
…
From Tucson to Pullman, from Boulder to Stanford, there is frustration with the football operations (i.e. the schedule and the treatment by TV partners) and with the revenue stream, not only among fans but on the campuses.
As the revenue gap expands … and just wait until the FY18 financials start rolling in from the other Power Fives … that frustration will only increase.
Take the podcast for what it is — a discussion, not a movement or revolt — and enjoy.
I agree it won’t happen and that the academic side won’t even give it serious consideration. While USC could make a little more as an independent, I think fans underestimate all the hassles and costs associated with making that change. Scheduling all their other sports would get challenging, especially since the remaining P12 schools would not be inclined to help them out.
The lack of fan passion would also be a hinderance. How big would USC’s TV deal actually be since much of the country doesn’t care about them? BYU makes less than $5M per year while ND is rumored to make $20-25M between their NBC deal and the ACC’s deal with ESPN. It’s not like USC is going to catch up to the SEC or B10 financially, plus they’d still have all the scheduling problems. On top of that, it’s hard to get bowl deals as an independent and the playoff becomes even harder to make.
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B1G Network not part of the Fox sale to Disney.
https://apnews.com/2675f79102e94cacaa22fa2886827d74/Disney-buying-large-part-of-21st-Century-Fox-in-$52.4B-deal
“Before the buyout, 21st Century Fox will separate the Fox Broadcasting network and stations, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network into a newly listed company that will be spun off to its shareholders. It will also include the company’s studio lot in Los Angeles and equity investment in Roku.”
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Another sports-related blurb from the AP article above.
“Disney also plans an ESPN Plus service for next year. It isn’t a duplicate of the ESPN TV network, but it will stream tennis matches along with major-league baseball, hockey and soccer games, as well as college sports. It might be able to add more sports through Fox’s regional sports networks — cable channels that show popular sports in the viewer’s region.”
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It’s a long time until 2032, but we’ll have to start thinking about whether this downsized version of Fox will want to keep the BTN. The media world will change a lot by then, but will a reduced company have the financial muscle to outbid Disney for it?
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Fascinating times in the media world. I think the B1G’s Tier 1 and 2 rights are safe for the next few years obviously. I could see Fox selling BTN to whoever picks up the Tier 1 and 2 rights in 6 years depending on whether Fox decides to pursue them at that point. The status quo would seem to signal reduced leverage for BTN going forward.
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I could see (hope) the conference buying itself into a majority position again, if not totally self owned. Didn’t like the feel of BTN being a commodity to be purchased and used for the purpose whichever highest bidding commercial enterprise chose.
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https://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/11/29/espn-employee-layoffs-john-skipper
In all the craziness of the coaching carousel, I think we forgot to mention that ESPN did another massive round of layoffs. This is the third major round of layoffs at ESPN in the past 2 years with a total of around 550 jobs lost (maybe 9% of their total workforce).
Will Disney buying out the regional Fox sports networks lead to even more cuts? I assume so.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/12/13/recruiting-early-signing-period-rankings-commitments-schedule
Don’t forget that the early signing period is next week, 12/20-12-22 (W-F). It’ll be interesting this first time around to see how many players sign early versus waiting for February. It forces coaches to admit which offers are real (i.e. commitable) and forces to player to show how committed they truly are. It also means that fall back options for the top schools may have already committed elsewhere, so we may seem some strange signings in February to fill roster holes.
A number of the top players are still planning to announce their commitments at the high school all-star games in January, and some others have said they’ll wait until February. Still, most people expect the majority of players to sign next week.
That said, here’s the class rankings using the 247 composite as things stand today:
1. OSU – 21 commitments, 94.87 average (94.56 average in 2017)
2. Texas – 19, 93.20
3. Miami – 21, 91.59
4. UGA – 18, 92.00
5. PSU – 20, 90.59 (88.32)
6. ND – 20, 90.47
7. OU – 20, 90.14
8. AU – 18, 90.56
9. AL – 14, 92.14
10. OR – 19, 89.30
12. MI – 16, 89.54 (91.20)
20. UMD – 21, 86.90 (86.86)
22. MSU – 20, 87.01 (84.90)
28. MN – 26, 85.99 (83.24)
35. WI – 19, 86.34 (85.82)
38. IA – 15, 86.60 (84.52)
39. RU – 21, 84.11 (83.71)
40. IN – 20, 84.61 (83.19)
48. PU – 21, 84.12 (81.88)
49. NW – 15, 85.72 (85.04)
54. NE – 11, 87.91 (87.81)
62. IL – 15, 84.29 (83.71)
Big improvements for PSU, MSU, MN, IA, IN and PU but a step back for MI. About the same for most programs as should be expected. It’s really important for the lower tier schools to all be above 84 since that generally keeps them above all the G5 programs. It’ll help those teams be more competitive moving forward if they can maintain this pace.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-42353745
I don’t want to stray into politics, but the FCC’s decision to overturn net neutrality is relevant here. In a world of merging media powers and consumers cutting the cord, a lot of college sports viewing is going to move to streaming. While Disney might be able to pay ISPs not to throttle their programming, will the new Fox be able to afford that? Will BTN be disadvantaged versus the SECN and ACCN? Will Comcast punish all non-ND games?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21770843/royce-freeman-oregon-sitting-vegas-bowl-boise-state
And then there were 4. OR RB Royce Freeman will sit out his bowl game to prepare for the draft.
The CFP just keeps giving and giving. Professionalizing the sport while devaluing the bowl games has led inevitably to this.
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Interesting article in Mergermarket today:
The future of the Twenty-First Century Fox [NASDAQ:FOXA] television networks, especially after company’s deal to sell assets to Walt Disney [NYSE:DIS], is uncertain, two sector bankers said.
This morning, the company announced that it had reached an agreement to sell its film and television studios, its regional sports networks (RSNs), cable channels FX and National Geographic, and its stakes in Sky [LON:SKY] and Hulu to Disney in an all-stock transaction valued at USD 52.4bn.
The company’s remaining assets – its broadcast network and associated owned-and-operated broadcast stations, Fox Sports 1 and 2, Fox News, Fox Business Network and the Big Ten Network – will be spun off into a new entity, owned by existing Fox shareholders.
Fox has considered broadcast deals in the past, with this news service previously reporting that it looked at a bid for Tribune Media [NYSE:TRCO] and Ion Media Networks. Neither deal materialized, though on the call to discuss the Disney transaction this morning, Fox Chairman Rupert Murdoch said that the “New Fox” spinco will “have the ability” to look at broadcast acquisitions.
The company’s deal considerations, which have carried the implicit threat of severing affiliations with current broadcast partners, have done a great deal to damage the relationship between Fox and the affiliate broadcast industry, the first banker and an industry executive said.
No affiliate broadcast groups are eager to acquire new Fox stations as a result, the executive said, adding that, of the big four networks, Fox is widely seen to bring the least to the table.
The first banker agreed that Fox is seen as the lowest-value of the four major networks, and that there is a “smaller circle of buyers” for Fox stations than for those affiliated with CBS [NYSE:CBS], Comcast’s [NASDAQ:CMCSA] NBC or Disney’s ABC.
The value of Fox affiliation may take a further hit following the Disney deal, the second banker said. It is no longer backed by its own studio – though, on the call to discuss the deal, Murdoch stressed that it will be a major buyer of programming from third-party production companies.
Further, the company’s ability to bid for sports assets will be greatly reduced after the transaction, this banker added. Deals for sports rights have gotten more and more expensive every year, and now Fox has lost an enormous amount of scale, and will be unable to use cash flow from its larger businesses to support its future bids for sports rights, this banker explained, agreeing that this also puts a cloud over the future of the Fox Sports channels.
The increased expense of sports is also a concern for Fox Broadcasting and the owned-and operated TV stations, an industry advisor noted. Under the current deal that began in 2014, Fox is paying an estimated USD 3bn to the NFL alone, according to published reports. “There’s going to be a point where CBS and Fox and so forth will not be able to afford it unless they bring it in through a pay system,” the advisor said. That prospect has serious implications for Fox’s advertising revenues, which are considerably buoyed by NFL games on Sunday afternoons, as well as the Super Bowl – television’s premier event – on a rotating basis.
Football is also an important lead-in to a network’s Sunday primetime programming, adding more to its value.
Fundamentally, the deal to combine assets with Disney is a recognition that enormous scale is ever-more-important in content, the second banker said. It is unclear how the reduced “New Fox” spinco solves that problem, this banker added.
Follow-on deals have been speculated in press reports, particularly the possibility that Fox News could recombine with another Murdoch-controlled company, News Corp [NASDAQ:NWSA]. On the call, Murdoch shot down this idea, saying that it has not been considered and, if it were, it would take place “way in the future.”
New Fox is forecasted to generate free cash flow of USD 2bn and will receive favorable tax treatment that will shelter a significant amount of revenue from tax, which means that it will have the dry powder to pursue M&A if it chooses, per the call to discuss the deal.
As reported by this news service and others, previous deals that Fox considered for its broadcast arm involved joint venture structures that would have seen the creation of a new entity. If Fox News were to be recombined with News Corp and the broadcast company placed into a joint venture entity, little would remain of New Fox.
Fox did not respond to a request for comment.
by Jonathan Guilford in New York and David B. Wilkerson in Chicago
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This is one reason I’m glad the Fox deal is only 6 years long. I’m not sure how long Fox can and will stay committed to B10 sports. I’m not sure FS1 and FS2 will even survive for long.
As I mentioned above, this loss of financial power combined with the net neutrality decision worries me about BTN’s future. Maybe in 15-20 years the concept of a cable network will be almost meaningless with everything being streamed. Will Fox have the money to pay ISPs not to throttle their programming?
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I’m not sure cables’ future is bleak. First, anyone who lives more than 40 miles from a major city cannot get broadcast TV. Where I live, we can only get “local” TV broadcasts via DirectV and Dish. Cable is uneconomic is our area, and so it isn’t an option.
However, where it is available (nearly everywhere at least suburban densities) cable TV is usually bundled with internet and phone services, and the internet is usually high speed. So while there is some speculation about stand-alone cable TV, the fact is that it usually comes with other valuable services, and that should keep it in business, even as a loss leader.
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bob sykes,
“I’m not sure cables’ future is bleak.”
I think cable has a limited future, but that’s because the world will probably move to streaming for everything. The cable companies may adapt to the new world by becoming streaming companies and cable channels may become streaming channels, but I think cable itself has a limited future.
“First, anyone who lives more than 40 miles from a major city cannot get broadcast TV.”
Really? I grew up in rural Ohio and we all got TV via an outdoor antenna just fine. Are the signals a lot weaker now? I didn’t think they lost power when the switched to digital. I know in the mountains or plains states there are areas that can’t receive any TV signals, but signals can be received from 80 or more miles away with the right antenna in the right conditions.
“Where I live, we can only get “local” TV broadcasts via DirectV and Dish. Cable is uneconomic is our area, and so it isn’t an option.”
And where I live I can’t get satellite due to trees.
“However, where it is available (nearly everywhere at least suburban densities) cable TV is usually bundled with internet and phone services, and the internet is usually high speed.”
Well the phone service is rapidly going away since nobody uses them. But the cable/internet bundle is what will kill cable as they merge into one service.
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Cable provides a majority of high speed internet…
TV as a loss/subsidized leader seems a reasonable likelihood. Streamers need something to stream through, and deregulation will strengthen providers (often cable) hand.
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ccrider55,
“Cable provides a majority of high speed internet…”
Yes, but that doesn’t mean cord cutting isn’t the way of the future. Standard cable TV will become a shrinking fraction of their business in my opinion. Or perhaps I should say TV will morph to where the cable networks are no different from Netflix and other new content providers. The future streaming world may end up not that different from cable TV except that everything comes over the internet and there may be less forced carriage.
“TV as a loss/subsidized leader seems a reasonable likelihood. Streamers need something to stream through, and deregulation will strengthen providers (often cable) hand.”
Internet will likely end up being treated as a utility sooner or later. Don’t forget that tech companies like Google could buy Comcast out of cash reserves.
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Something to watch. Another Pac president is unhappy.
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The Cal chancellor has good points. I especially hate the 6 day notice on game times. Really hard to plan even for watching on TV if you want to have a viewing party etc…..
While she has fair points she fails to acknowledge that the Pac 12 schools have a time zone and fan passion issue. They need to balance whether the money is more important then her other critiques.
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Mike,
Yes, I think the era of the P12 presidents being content while lagging the other conferences financially is ending. In the old days athletics TV money wasn’t all that important compared to ticket sales, donations and the overall school budget. As state funding for schools keeps dropping and the cost of being competitive skyrockets, the athletics budget is getting stretched further and further. The revenue gap that the B10 and SEC are starting to build over the P12 is getting large enough to impact competitiveness.
Kevin rightly points out that the P12 has some intrinsic problems due to geography and fan support. Being 2-3 hours behind the majority of the US population is a problem without any easy solution. They’ve tried to maximize the value of that open later night TV window, but easterners just aren’t watching. Their less fervent fan bases also mean that P12 games struggle to beat out B10 or SEC games in the national windows (3:30, 8 ET) so the networks offer them less money.
That said, critics have pointed out several choices the P12 has made that might not be wise. They haven’t been scheduling games in a way to maximize their brands. The decision to keep 100% of the P12N means a lack of penetration and a loss of revenue in exchange for an asset. They also have made some odd scheduling decisions for non-revenue sports just so the P12N can carry the events live. Is that really worth it?
I think one problem for the P12 is that their presidents have been trying to live in the past. The value of football on TV has grown a lot and the old business models no longer apply. The power of TV has grown with the value of football. I think as new presidents come in at the various schools, you’ll see the attitudes change a little. I’m just not sure what they can do outside of expansion (adding UTexas would help a lot) or contraction (WSU and OrSU aren’t helping them much) that would have a major impact.
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Yes, I think the era of the P12 presidents being content while lagging the other conferences financially is ending.
Just as an exercise, what do you think their consultants are going to tell them to maximize their revenue?
1) Sell equity stake in PTN?
2) Pac16 Texas/OU/Tech/(OSU|TCU) raid? DirectTV and other cable networks couldn’t ignore the PTN then.
3) Big Ten partnership (scheduling agreement/other)?
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Mike,
“Just as an exercise, what do you think their consultants are going to tell them to maximize their revenue?”
I’ll preface this by saying I really don’t know. I’m not sure the P12 has a lot of great options. I think the new guard will be less accepting of being behind, but I don’t think there are easy answers.
“1) Sell equity stake in PTN?”
If the right offer was there, sure. They shouldn’t sell it just to sell it, but if the right partner comes along and is willing to pay enough they should listen. They need to get P12N on satellite. Finding a partner that can help with production would be nice. Perhaps an outsider could improve their usage of the national versus regional feeds, too.
“2) Pac16 Texas/OU/Tech/(OSU|TCU) raid? DirectTV and other cable networks couldn’t ignore the PTN then.”
If they can get UTexas, then they should. That’s the only expansion that seems to be acceptable to them and financially beneficial. I don’t think it was a lack of desire on the P12’s part before, though, so I’m not sure a consultant would be telling them anything new. The problem is getting UTexas to want it.
“3) Big Ten partnership (scheduling agreement/other)?”
A scheduling agreement doesn’t change much. Perhaps the B10, P12 and B12 could work together to push the CFP to punish teams from 8-game conferences, especially if they play OOC cupcakes late in the year. The B10 and P12 are tied tightly over the Rose Bowl. What else can they really do together that has value?
There are always ideas like the P12 working with the B12 to be a superconference for business deals (stay separate for playing games). That would give them more leverage for TV deals. It might help with some scheduling issues, too. The P12N could expand to include the rest of the B12 except UTexas. Having TX and CA would be quite a footprint for subscriber fees. Would the B12 agree? Maybe. It could bring them stability and a little more money. It would also give them a conference network without driving a wedge between them and UTexas.
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“They need to get P12N on satellite”
If by satellite you mean DTV, yes, that would help. They’ve been on Dish TV since the first year.
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Yes, that’s what I meant. I couldn’t remember which one it was they weren’t on so I generalized.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/asu-hired-herm-edwards-to-keep-the-staff-together-but-thats-not-working.html
ASU’s Herm Edwards experiment isn’t going well so far. The AD hired his friend to be a figurehead and recruiter with the plan being to keep all the previous assistants around to do the actual coaching. Now both the DC and OC have left, the S&C coach is being let go and several of the other assistants have gotten interest from other schools.
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http://footballscoop.com/news/sources-wazzu-defensive-coordinator-alex-grinch-candidate-join-ohio-state-staff/
The other big change coming to CFB is the addition of a 10th assistant coach starting 1/9/2018. Expect to see some chaos as some of the big boys poach quality assistants from lesser programs.
Case in point, OSU is supposedly targeting WSU’s DC Alex Grinch (perfect seasonal timing). He’s an up and coming star and drastically improved WSU’s defense in his 3 years there. He is from the Columbus area and went to college in Ohio as well so there is a link that helps OSU’s cause, but apparently several SEC schools also pursued him. I’m sure that knowing Greg Schiano is destined to leave soon for another head coaching job is part of this as well with Meyer trying to get his successor in place a year in advance.
WSU is paying him $600,000 as their DC while OSU can easily match that for an assistant if they want. The other major programs can also afford to cherrypick the best coaches. It will only be a temporary setback for the lesser programs because we’ll reach a new equilibrium pretty quickly, but we might see an impact in 2018.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/fix-college-football-ratings-coordination-scheduling-eight-team-playoff.html
A blogger gives his plan to improve CFB’s TV ratings.
Non-conference scheduling is brutal. It took work to get teams to schedule one live football game (though that paradigm may change given how the committee behaved this year). Even playing one tough opponent, teams still throw away 16-25 percent of potential regular-season television inventory to pad wins. That’s part of the reason why schools have trouble getting fans to show up on time or at all to games. More inter-conference scheduling agreements and adding a ninth conference game in the SEC/ACC could improve matters.
Sure, weak OOC games hurt ratings. But home games make a lot of money for the schools and their local businesses. Are networks willing to pay the schools what they’d lose from home games in order to get the improved ratings? I don’t think so.
Perhaps a compromise solution would help. Let’s get the conferences to work with their schools to spread out their best OOC games and early conference games so there are multiple good games every week. You may still have a bunch of cupcakes every September weekend, but only so many games can draw eyeballs at a time anyway. In addition, TV could sacrifice exclusive windows and allow a crappy game or 2 on the conference network at the same time as their big game. That hides the worst games.
I will give conferences credit for mandating at least 1 P5 OOC game. That’s an improvement. The next step would be eliminating I-AA games, but schools are too cheap to do it. Again, TV would have to pay them to get them to do better. I’m surprised that networks haven’t pushed the ACC and SEC to stop playing November cupcakes. I think November should be conference games only except for playing independents.
I couldn’t agree more with getting the ACC and SEC to add a 9th conference game. Not only would that improve the games available for TV, it would also level the playing field. The two conferences that have always been in the CFP are the two conferences that play only 8 games. Coincidence? Maybe. But again, TV will have to pay them to force this change. Is ESPN willing to pony up?
The four-team playoff helps the end of the regular season. Two of the top five viewership games in 2017 were the SEC and Big Ten title games, with playoff implications. But that’s also showing what college football is missing by not moving to six or eight teams. All five conference games would have playoff implications. In an eight-team format with home fields, college football would also add the best sports weekend of the year, in place of people pretending they look forward to Army-Navy every year.
I don’t buy this. The SEC and B10 CCGs are the top ratings games because they have the most fans. Would more people watch if you knew the winner was in? Maybe, but you also might lose fans since they know the winner is in. Even worse, if 2 highly ranked teams play you might know they’re both in no matter what so the game doesn’t matter. I think it would all be a wash.
Adding 2-4 quarterfinals that next week would certainly make some money, but in my opinion it’s not fair to say it’ll boost ratings. It’s adding games that don’t currently exist. By that theory, adding a 13th game would also help ratings. It also ignores the issues involved (injury risk, logistics, etc). It would take a lot of money from ESPN to convince the southern schools to agree to a system that might send them to Madison in December. Is it worth it to ESPN?
Conferences also undercut each other with competing TV deals. The example to look toward is the NFL. The NFL negotiates its TV deals as a single entity and coordinates. Games are organized rationally on Sunday. Event games on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights bring in billions in additional revenue. College football is what would happen if each NFL division negotiated its own TV contract.
The NFL is a single entity that has an antitrust exemption. The P5 conferences are 5 separate entities. The last time the schools got together as one entity to sign a regular season TV deal the supreme court overruled it. The only way to get all the schools in one deal now would be to boost everyone to what the B10/SEC are making. Why would the networks agree to that?
That scarcity was key. College football had bigger and better games during the 2017 season. The Michigan-Florida game rated as well as it did because it wasn’t dealing with 3-4 other games as Fox, NBC, ABC, and ESPN aired competing marquee night games. One shouldn’t have four screens airing separate games and still not be able to follow the Top 25 action.
The NFL has at most 16 games in a week while I-A can have over 70. And the NFL has considerable overlap in their schedule with regional coverage. CFB has to be on multiple networks at the same time to show even a fraction of all their games. And why would one conference sacrifice exposure to help someone else? Without it being one big financial entity, it makes no sense.
College football could recreate that Alabama-Florida State game-level audience every week, with flex scheduling for later in the season. They could do a similar event game on Friday night, with teams more intriguing than Boston College playing.
No they couldn’t. That’s idiotic. AL/FSU was Labor Day weekend, one of the rare times CFB can spread games from Thursday through Monday with almost no competition. Every other weekend the NFL would own Sunday and dominate Monday night. The NFL crushes CFB on many Thursdays, too. And anyone in TV will tell you that Friday night events don’t do well. People are out, not at home.
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Home games don’t bring as much money if fans don’t show. All these I-AA games are a bad product. Its not competitive and fans aren’t into the game. Even Alabama is having trouble completely filling the stands. They sell the tickets, but people don’t show. As people don’t show, concessions are down and resale prices go down. As resale prices go down, fans start saying, “Why donate 10k a year when we can get better tickets on the street for that and not have to buy the dog games?” Its a long run loser to “cheat” your customers as many colleges are now.
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bullet,
“Home games don’t bring as much money if fans don’t show.”
But more than enough show to make a good profit. For now, at least.
“All these I-AA games are a bad product.”
No argument here.
“Even Alabama is having trouble completely filling the stands. They sell the tickets, but people don’t show. As people don’t show, concessions are down and resale prices go down.”
Does AL really care about actual attendance as long as they can sell over 100,000 tickets? They only paid Mercer $600,000. Even with gameday expenses, that’s a huge profit.
“As resale prices go down, fans start saying, “Why donate 10k a year when we can get better tickets on the street for that and not have to buy the dog games?””
I’m guessing AL still has no problem selling season tickets. Eventually the problems may trickle up to them, though. Perhaps the other SEC programs should stop being scared and join Saban’s call for 9 SEC games.
“Its a long run loser to “cheat” your customers as many colleges are now.”
We keep thinking that, but I’m not sure it’s true. The hard core fans don’t seem to mind and the casual fans have long since been priced out of the season ticket market. I wonder if it will show a bigger impact as current fans die off in the far future and younger generations don’t feel the need to replace them.
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SEC is having problems getting students going to the games like they used to. They are starting to shift seats out of the student sections (and not just because they can sell them for more). I’ve seen several SEC presidents express concern, including Georgia and Alabama.
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Everyone has problems with students anymore. I don’t think it’s fixable. That generation doesn’t want to commit 4 straight hours to any one thing, especially in a world of streaming video and HDTV. Better wifi may help a little, but I think the experience of going to games is losing out to the convenience (and lack of cost) of staying home. On the other hand, TV money is getting big enough to make ticket sales less important. The NFL has been making their stadiums smaller for a reason. I think you’ll see colleges follow suit eventually. More luxury seats and fewer total seats works well financially.
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But the purpose is to connect the alums to the campus. It doesn’t work nearly as well on TV as when you get them to the stadium. Defeats the long term goal of athletics.
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bullet,
“But the purpose is to connect the alums to the campus. It doesn’t work nearly as well on TV as when you get them to the stadium. Defeats the long term goal of athletics.”
Connecting alumni is important for future donations but I think they are more focused on the potential large donors. A few people giving large sums tops 30% more people that give little. Long term I think it’s problematic, but with the new tax bill the ticket sales are going to generate even less money anyway. The hope is for TV money to grow.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/watch-nick-saban-voices-his-disapproval-of-college-footballs-early-signing-period/
Here is the best possible evidence that the early signing period is a good thing for players and CFB – Nick Saban hates it.
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Just wait until the regular signing period. The cries for a kid to be free to change his mind…
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They already complain about it, so no major change there. The kids can always choose to sign financial aid agreements, which are only binding for the school, instead of an LOI so they get no sympathy from me.
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Based on Wilner’s article about Cal’s chancellor having concerns with the P12 and the Disney purchase of Fox’s RSNs, the Dude of WV has some realignment talk on twitter.
“Those interested in future Big 12 expansion need to take note of this article. Market conditions are favoring a Big 12 raid of the PAC 12 or some type of merger:
…
Big 12 people should also note that the purchase of the regional fox sports networks means that Disney/ESPN would be dead set against any B1G expansion but pro Big 12 expansion. T3 rights 1 football game & 4 hoops games included for most of B12 schools.
…
So right now market conditions favor Big 12 expansion with a raid of or a merger with the P12 but likely rule out any B1G expansion.
…
That doesn’t mean market conditions will not change by the time action is doable. But it’s a good indicator.
…
Right now Cal would jump at a Big 12 offer. Colorado would accept a Big 12 invite too. Too bad they can’t make one.
…
Would OU fans be happy if the Big 12 added Cal, Colorado, Arizona & Arizona State In 2026? What if the Big 12 added those 4 but WVU went to the ACC & Baylor was dropped?”
The B12 isn’t raiding the P12 any time soon nor would the P12 schools consent to merge with most of the B12. Cal isn’t leaving Stanford and UCLA to partner with B12 schools. CO isn’t returning to the B12 either. I highly doubt that UA and ASU want to move east either.
I know the Fox RSNs have some B12 school rights, but I don’t think they matter much in ESPN’s lack of desire for the B10 to expand. I also don’t buy that they want the B12 to expand. Any expansion costs ESPN money in the long run.
The ACC isn’t taking WV any time soon no matter how much WV begs.
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Serious question, since I do not know. Has the Dude of WV ever been correct on anything of import?
As Brian said:
1. No way that the ACC takes WV. The Mountaineers should be thrilled to be in the Big 12, since no one else would take them. The academic powers in the ACC would choke at the idea of adding WV.
2. Zero chance of Cal leaving behind UCLA (or Stanford) and probably not USC either. I wonder if the University of California Regents would look kindly on Cal and UCLA splitting up. Kind of doubt it. Why, except in the most extreme emergency type situation, would Cal ever be willing to move away from its neighbor, Stanford?
The whole post seems like a fantasy.
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This is why FtT blog is enjoyable. For most here, fan boy crap is ignored or treated as nothing more than amusement.
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Has the Dude of WV ever been correct on anything of import
IMHO – No.
No way that the ACC takes WV. The Mountaineers should be thrilled to be in the Big 12, since no one else would take them. The academic powers in the ACC would choke at the idea of adding WV.
I think there is a chance. The ACC took Louisville over UConn so they *might* take WV over UConn.
Zero chance of Cal leaving behind UCLA
What the Dude doesn’t seem to understand is unhappy PAC presidents don’t mean the PAC is ripe for picking, it means they’re even more likely to raid.
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I think that the ACC needed a team and the “football schools” Clemson and FSU pretty much demanded Louisville over UConn. That was a time when both of those schools were threatening to look for another home, so Louisville was their incentive to stay home.
Duke, et al, lowering their standards to admit Louisville was probably a one time deal. If the ACC were to expand and add a few more schools, I guess that WV could be on the table, but the academics would be more than unhappy.
I agree with you on the PAC. If anything this could cause the PAC to make concessions to Texas and Oklahoma rather than breaking up.
The Dude is ignoring the impact of academics on the makeup of conferences – both by overvaluing WV and ignoring the relationship of Cal to UCLA and to Stanford, in particular, as well as to other PAC schools.
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“it means they’re even more likely to raid.”
Perhaps presidents (supposedly) unwilling to add OU/OkSU half a decade ago may have left, or had a change of mind.
I doubt it happens without UT coming as an equal member, but perhaps it needs to happen (OU/OkSU) first, to relieve UT of conference killer label.
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ccrider55,
I wonder if they really need UT to be an equal member. Let them have LHN. Who cares? Instead, get UT to lean on ESPN to force P12N (national) to be bundled with LHN (basically P12N-TX). Give ESPN a share of the extra revenue so they have an incentive to do it and everybody wins.
Likewise, maybe the P12 needs to think about their academic conference as separate from their athletic conference. They have a lot of affiliate sports out west, so why not consider expanding that concept to a sports-only affiliation? Having 10 teams in 4 states is a problem they can’t fix. Luckily they’ve since added 2 more states and have a few neighboring ones that aren’t claimed by anyone else (ID, MT, WY, NV, NM).
If the P12 works with the B12, they could pressure the B12 to expand. Grab UCF and USF. That gets you 2 more schools in ET to host noon games. The weakest games from the P12 and CT B12 schools can play at 3:30 while the best games play in prime time. A few weak P12 games can be at 10:30pm. Expand the P12N to become a B12/P12N and add some regional feeds in B12 country except TX (LHN). 24 P5 schools would have tremendous leverage with the TV networks, especially since they combine to cover the entire western half of the US (minus NE and the Dakotas) and at least 2 of the biggest states.
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Academic conferences are identical to athletic conferences; they cannot be separated. Notre Dame is an affiliate of both the ACC and the B1G (hockey), but it is on a par with them academically, at least on the undergraduate level. Sports only affiliation is impossible; it is an anathema.
The importance of academics and culture to athletic conferences cannot be overstated. They are part of the self-identity of the individual faculty, administrators, trustees, students and alumni. That is why realignments like Penn State and Nebraska to the B1G and the formation of the B1G’s hockey conference were so traumatic to so many fans.
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bob – that’s certainly true with regard to the B1G with the CIC, and to a certain extent the SEC with its Academic Consortium. But the P-12, B-12, and ACC all have schools that their blue bloods wouldn’t associate with outside of sports. Louisville, West Virginia, and Oregon State would only get a polite wave at the cocktail party from the likes of UVA, Texas, or Stanford. To my knowledge, those three conferences have no such formal arrangement for sharing research.
Looking at the G-5, it’s even more pronounced. Tulane and SMU would have nothing to do with East Carolina outside of athletic scheduling. The same goes for Rice and Southern Miss.
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bob sykes,
“Academic conferences are identical to athletic conferences; they cannot be separated.”
Sure they can. There are lots of affiliate teams that aren’t members of the academic conference. Johns Hopkins isn’t in the CIC. Just because the two have historically overlapped doesn’t mean that they need to be identical.
“Notre Dame is an affiliate of both the ACC and the B1G (hockey), but it is on a par with them academically, at least on the undergraduate level.”
ND is an ACC member. Despite playing in the B10 for hockey, ND isn’t a member of the B10 as an academic conference.
“Sports only affiliation is impossible; it is an anathema.”
Cal Poly – SLO, Cal State – Bakersfield and SDSU are all P12 affiliates for a sport but definitely not part of the academic conference. A lot more minor CA schools (smaller Cals and Cal States) plus Boise State used to be members for a sport until choosing to leave the P12 (Boise dropped wrestling, for example).
“The importance of academics and culture to athletic conferences cannot be overstated.”
I think they can. Not every affiliation has to be at all levels, just like not all P5 schools are AAU members.
“They are part of the self-identity of the individual faculty, administrators, trustees, students and alumni.”
People will adjust.
“That is why realignments like Penn State and Nebraska to the B1G and the formation of the B1G’s hockey conference were so traumatic to so many fans.”
Those were traumatic for fans because of lost rivalries. They didn’t really care about the academic side so much.
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Alan from Baton Rouge,
“bob – that’s certainly true with regard to the B1G with the CIC, and to a certain extent the SEC with its Academic Consortium. But the P-12, B-12, and ACC all have schools that their blue bloods wouldn’t associate with outside of sports. Louisville, West Virginia, and Oregon State would only get a polite wave at the cocktail party from the likes of UVA, Texas, or Stanford. To my knowledge, those three conferences have no such formal arrangement for sharing research.
Looking at the G-5, it’s even more pronounced. Tulane and SMU would have nothing to do with East Carolina outside of athletic scheduling. The same goes for Rice and Southern Miss.”
Exactly. In many ways you could think of the AAU as an academic superconference with several divisions of various sizes. Those schools work together more than schools like KSU and UT or UVA and UL.
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John Skipper resigns.
http://www.latimes.com/business/hollywood/la-fi-ct-espn-john-skipper-20171218-story.html
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That could be an important change. He’s been guiding the future of ESPN for a long time.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/12/the_worst_season_for_each_fbs.html#incart_river_index
The worst season for every I-A team since 1950. They are ranked within each conference.
Worst of the worst:
ACC:
1. Virginia Tech, 0-10 in 1950
1950 was the final year for Robert McNeish as head coach after he went 1-25-3 as head coach for the Hokies. They were outscored, 430-72, and lost every game by double digits. They lost by 56 to Maryland, 54 to William & Mary and 41 to Duke.
B10:
1. Northwestern, 0-11 in 1981
Northwestern had a brutal stretch in the 1980s. But 1981 has to be the worst season in program history. The Wildcats were last in the FBS in both points per game and points allowed per game. Northwestern lost two games by 64 points and another by 52.
B12:
1. Kansas, 0-12 in 2015
Kansas football has had major problems in recent years. But the 2015 Jayhawks were poor in just about every way. They scored just 15.2 points per game and gave up an FBS-worst 46.1 points on defense. Only two losses were by single digits, including a three-point loss to FCS foe South Dakota State.
P12:
1. Washington, 0-12 in 2008
Washington’s 2008 season marked the end of a brutal four-year coaching tenure of Tyrone Willingham. They had the third-worst offense (13.2 points per game) and fourth-worst defense (38.6 ppg). Among their losses was a 56-0 shutout to USC, a 55-14 blowout vs. Oklahoma and a 48-7 rout at Cal in the final game of the year.
SEC:
1. Alabama, 0-10 in 1955
It’s hard to believe now. But Alabama had a winless season in 1950, and it scored just 48 points all year. The Crimson Tide’s closest loss was by 15 points. And their starting quarterback was a senior from Montgomery by the name of Bart Starr.
Others:
1. Kent State, 0-11 in 1998
The Golden Flashes were outscored by more than 300 points in 1998 and allowed more than 310 yards rushing per game. Not once all season was a Kent State game decided by one possession.
Best of the worst:
ACC:
14. Miami (FL), 2-8 in 1975
The Hurricanes had just five passing touchdowns in 1975 and their quarterbacks threw 14 interceptions. Miami also had problems defensively, allowing 23.9 points per game, which was No. 101 in the FBS.
B10:
14. Ohio State, 4-5 in 1966
I left off the 2011 team that went 6-7 because that group had a positive scoring differential. So we’re going with 1966, which is one of just nine seasons where OSU finished below .500. That season, OSU scored just 12 points per game, and went 1-4 in games where the Buckeyes score in single digits. Two years later, the Super Sophs helped the Buckeyes win a national championship.
B12:
10. Oklahoma, 3-8 in 1996
Oklahoma’s first eight-loss season came in 1996 when the Sooners allowed teams to score 35.6 points per game. The starting quarterback of that team was Justin Fuente, who is now the head coach at Virginia Tech. The Sooners did pull an upset vs. Texas, 30-27, in the Red River Rivalry for their first win of the season.
P12:
12. Arizona State, 3-8 in 1994
The Sun Devils haven’t had too many bad seasons since 1950. But they were victimized in 1994 by a brutal schedule that had games against six ranked teams and allowed 31.5 points per game as a result. Led by sophomore quarterback Jake Plummer, Arizona State went to the Rose Bowl two years later.
SEC:
14. Tennessee, 4-8 in 2017
The Volunteers were alone with Ohio State as the only schools to avoid an eight-loss season until 2017. Tennessee went winless in the SEC, which cost Butch Jones his job. A 41-0 loss to Georgia on Sept. 30 helped start the downward spiral for Tennessee.
Others:
65. Old Dominion, 5-7 in 2015
The Monarchs have only been in the FBS for four seasons, and their worst record has been 5-7 in 2015 and 2017. But I went with 2015 because the Monarchs had a slightly worse point differential than in 2017. And they did not play a ranked team in 2015 despite losses by, 49, 29 and a pair of 25-point defeats.
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https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
The early signing period started today and almost every committed prospect signed with someone. There are still a few players waiting until February (several want to announce at one of the all-star games in January), but not many. That said, here’s where the recruiting classes stand as of 5pm on Wednesday.
1. OSU – 22, 94.17
2. UGA
3. UT
4. PSU – 22, 91.10
5. AL
6. Miami
7. Clemson
8. ND
9. OU
10. AU
B10:
12. MI – 19, 89.01
19. UMD – 24, 86.89
25. MSU – 20, 87.02
28. MN – 26, 86.09
34. IA – 18, 86.27
37. WI – 19, 86.38
40. RU – 23, 84.06
41. IN – 22, 84.68
46. NE – 13, 87.32
47. PU – 24, 84.13
50. NW – 16, 85.58
60. IL – 15, 84.65
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2017/12/18/16780636/best-recruits-2018-state-rankings
Where the blue chip (4* & 5*) recruits come from in table form.
2018: 365 total
FL – 65 (includes IMG Academy which recruits players; 54 if you by where they grow up)
CA – 48
TX – 44
GA – 40
OH, LA, NC, PA – 12 (it was a really down year in OH)
TN – 11
AL – 10
Other B10 states:
NJ, MD – 9
MI – 7
IL – 4
IN, DC – 2
IA, NE – 1
MN, WI – 0
They also have the table for the past 6 years combined to help smooth out the noise.
* There’s geographic bias in recruiting evaluations. An elite player in Montana won’t be rated the same as an elite player in Florida because he hasn’t played against the same competition and maybe hasn’t been noticed to begin with.
* At an individual level, recruiting is inexact. Four-stars bust all the time, and three-stars turn out to be studs. At the macro level, however, recruiting has proved very predictive.
…
* Usually, Georgia produces about twice as many blue-chippers as Ohio. This year’s 40-12 margin might never happen again. But the consistent stream of talent in the Peach State is the biggest reason Mark Richt was able to win so consistently in Athens. It’s also the biggest reason Kirby Smart’s in the Playoff in his second year.
* For the sake of assessing recruiting advantages, you might as well consider D.C. recruits to be Marylanders and Virginians. If you spread the District’s 17 blue-chips from the last six years evenly, both states would jump a few spots. That’s why the Maryland Terrapins have managed to line up a couple of top-20 classes in a row despite being either mediocre or outright bad on the field.
* Tennessee produces and is surrounded by enough elite talent that the Volunteers could build a national title contender if they found the right coach, despite obvious challenges. “But they’ve been saying that for years!” you might counter, and I’d have to acknowledge that you were right.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21827570/tax-reform-bill-removes-deduction-donations-season-tickets-forcing-universities-make-other-plans
The new tax reform bill will have serious repercussions for college athletics.
1. People used to be able to deduct 80% of the donation needed to get the best season tickets. That deduction is now gone and schools are expecting a major impact on donations. This deduction was always controversial since many outsiders view it not as charity but just part of the purchase price of the tickets. This also applies to businesses that used to write it off as an entertainment expense.
2. The bill adds a 21% excise tax on tax-exempt employers for any of the 5 most highly paid employees paid over $1M. This will lead to creative work by the lawyers to try to spread out the payment sources or use different forms of compensation.
One athletic director, who requested anonymity, said contracts could go back to how they were structured in the past, with the school giving a small base salary and each component being paid by the business by that contributes.
In recent years, for the sake of convenience, schools have aggregated the fee they paid a coach for marketing and media. Unbundling that to allow for each entity to pay individually for being involved with the coach could allow a school to get around the ruling — but even that will be difficult. If the Internal Revenue Service determines that the school is ordering the entities to structure in this way for tax purposes, it won’t be considered an arm’s-length transaction and will still be taxed, said Bennett Speyer, who has structured compensation packages for college coaches including Jim Harbaugh, Matt Campbell and Rich Rodriguez. This is why having a booster club or foundation pay part of a coach’s salary won’t be considered any different from the school paying it.
Speyer, a tax lawyer and chair of Shumaker, Loop & Kendrick LLP’s Sports Industry Practice, said schools might have to get creative if they don’t want to pay the tax on contracts above $1 million. Michigan’s $2 million raise to Harbaugh came in the form of paying off an annual life insurance policy that Harbaugh can withdraw money from with little to no interest. The money Harbaugh withdraws isn’t taxed as compensation; the only thing that is taxed as such is the fair-market value of what the interest rate would be, which makes a huge difference.
“You also might see more deferred compensation,” Speyer said, “where coaches aren’t paying taxes and schools aren’t paying that excise tax until the money actually vests.”
As with any creative methods of accounting, especially among the higher earners, the IRS is expected to heavily scrutinize any common practice that becomes a loophole.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/12/20/college-sports-impact-new-tax-bill-millions/968741001/
Overall for schools, “this is going to cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year,” said Tom McMillen, a former congressman who is now president and CEO of the LEAD1 Association, which represents athletics directors at schools in the NCAA’s top-level Football Bowl Subdivision. “It’s literally half a College Football Playoff (worth of money). When you put it at that kind of magnitude, it wakes you up a little bit.”
…
It also will be applied to certain types of what the legislation calls “parachute payments,” or separation payments like a buyout. At many FBS schools, coaches and/or the athletic director are among the institution’s five highest-paid employees and making more than $1 million.
“That’s not tax reform – that’s trying to discourage seven-figure payments to college sports figures and pick up a little revenue,” said Duke law professor Richard Schmalbeck, who has been a longstanding critic of the deduction for college-sports donations that provide seat-purchase privileges.
…
But based on pay for the 2017 season, 65 public schools would have faced a combined total of about $30 million in tax just for their football coaches. (Private schools will be subject to the tax.)
…
Iowa State AD Jamie Pollard estimates his school is facing $700,000 in additional cost from this provision.
“That figure will have to either be passed on to ticket holders and donors, or taken out of the budgets of sports that are not … being targeted by the federal government,” Pollard said in an e-mail. “It is ironic that the compensation paid in those two sports, by sheer market pressure, will actually now generate an additional financial burden for athletics directors to try and solve in our industry. It will be interesting to watch the new wave of creative ideas and suggestions that will be developed by lawyers, agents and financial advisors, to try and get around the new excise tax.”
3. The law also impacts income earned by non-profits from unrelated businesses.
In the collegiate setting, this could affect revenue from sports camps, a university golf course or sports medicine/physical therapy center that is open to the public.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-seasons-bowl-games-are-less-terrible-than-usual/
This year’s bowl games are slightly less bad than last year’s set. 2016 had the worst bowls on record. 538.com plotted the average bowl matchup for every year since 1988 using their Elo system to rate games. The games peaked in quality in the mid-90s at over 1850 in 1995 and 1996. 2016 was the only year ever below 1700 (almost a 10% drop from the peak).
Of course, this drop in average bowl quality is largely due to the continuing proliferation in bowl games. In 1995 and 1996 there were just 18 bowl games for 107 and 108 I-A teams respectively (it was 19 before that). In 2016 there were a record 41 bowls. 2017 has only 40 games for 130 teams.
538 also compared the 2017 version of the top 25 bowls versus their historical averages since 1988. Unsurprisingly, the games that most exceed their averages are the two semifinals (Rose and Sugar) as well as 2 other NY6 bowls (Cotton – usually got B12 #2 vs SEC #3/4 since 1996, Peach – was lower in the bowl order historically).
Difference from average:
Sugar +202 (2282 in 2017 vs 2080 on average)
Rose +201 (2267 vs 2066)
Cotton +201 (2161 vs 1960)
Peach +179 (2041 vs 1862)
Alamo +139 (1951 vs 1812)
Pinstripe +133 (1762 vs 1629)
Heart of Dallas + 122 (1687 vs 1565)
7 more were up more than 50 points but less than 100
11 were within 50 points of their average
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/12/21/national-signing-day-early-period-dabo-swinney-nick-saban
Andy Staples answers a question about the P12 lagging the B10 and SEC financially.
From Steve: Is there really anything the Pac-12 can do to make up the vast financial disparity with the SEC and Big Ten?
This is a major concern for Pac-12 programs, and Cal chancellor Carol Christ recently voiced other concerns about the management of the league.
As far as the money goes, there isn’t really a way to close the gap with those two particular leagues. The reason the Big Ten and SEC generate more revenue is that on the whole, the fans of those schools care more about college football than the fans of schools in the Pac-12 do. As consumer blocs, Big Ten and SEC fans are more willing to spend more per month on a conference cable network, and they are more likely to place pressure on a cable or satellite outlet that doesn’t carry that network. This results in higher carriage fees and better distribution for the Big Ten and SEC networks. It also helps insulate those networks against revenue lost to cord-cutting. Those networks also will lose revenue as people cut the cord, but they won’t lose it as fast. And no matter the distribution method, fans in the Big Ten and SEC will always be willing to pay more for college football than fans in the Pac-12 will. As consumers, they have demonstrated this time and again. So while everyone makes fun of the SEC’s “It just means more” slogan, it isn’t wrong. It just also happens to apply to the Big Ten.
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As supporting evidence for his point, consider this piece looking at the 10 most-viewed P12 games this season.
Quick and simple conclusion:
Of the 10 most-viewed college football broadcasts this season across the major networks, the Pac-12 contributed … zero games.
Of the 10 highest-rated broadcasts this season across the major networks, the Pac-12 contributed … zero games.
Not good, also not that surprising given the schedule, the results and the lack of a true playoff contender.
As for the top games within the conference, one team is involved in six of them.
Not hard to guess which team.
Many fans across the conference don’t want to hear this, but USC’s success is vital to the overall health of the Pac-12 football product, to the conference’s reputation nationally and its fiscal well being.
…
So let’s examine the top-rated games, keeping in mind that network and time slot matter, as well. Times are Pacific, and conclusions are at the bottom.
Thanks to Lewis, the Sports Media Watch editor, for sharing his thoughts, as well.
1. Stanford-Notre Dame
Date: Saturday, Nov. 25
Network: ABC/5 p.m.
Rating: 3.0 (viewers: 5.3 million)
Note disparity between the Pac-12’s top game and No. 10 on the season’s overall list, which was Georgia-Auburn: 4.4 rating and 7.4 million viewers.
The rest of the top 10:
2. USC-Texas
3. USC-UCLA
4. Stanford-USC (conference title game)
5. UCLA-Memphis
6. USC-Utah
7. USC-Cal
8. UCLA-Texas A&M
Rating: 1.9 (viewers; 3.2 million)
(Note: Same slot on ABC, West Virginia-Virginia Tech did 2.7 rating and 4.6 million viewers.)
9. USC-Notre Dame
10. UCLA-Washington
That’s 5 OOC games, the CCG and 4 regular season games.
B10 comparison: http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
The B10 played in 5 of the top 10 games of the year and had 6 games beat all the P12 games while 3 more beat #2 in the P12. The #10 game for the B10 would’ve been #3 in the P12. The B10 played in the #1 game in weeks 2, 4, 6-9 and 12.
B10’s top 10:
1. OSU/WI – B10CG
2. OSU/MI
3. OSU/PSU
4. OSU/OU – OOC
5. MI/UF – OOC
6. MSU/MI
7. PSU/IA
8. MI/WI
9. OSU/IN
10. MI/IN
Unlike the P12, only 2 OOC games make the B10’s top 10 list.
Back to Wilner’s article:
What does it all mean?
Clearly, the top Pac-12 games in any given season, on any given week, aren’t going to draw as many eyeballs as the equivalent showdowns in the SEC or Big Ten.
…
I asked Lewis, who tracks ratings in all sports for a living, for his impressions.
He zeroed in on the fight for eyeballs in a cluttered marketplace:
“One thing I would recommend, if it was feasible: the Pac-12 should try to take advantage of those rare days without a lot of competition, like Sunday and Monday of Labor Day weekend,” he said.
“College football schedules are so crowded that the conference gets lost in the shuffle.”
Some Hotline readers might faintly recognize the Labor Day Sunday concept. In the spring of 2016, I suggested the Pac-12 play a doubleheader of conference games that day.
Lewis also made a broader observation about the level of play in the conference, at least at the top tier.
“The Pac-12 is hampered right now by a lack of true contenders.
“Even though USC was mentioned as a playoff dark horse, it has been a few years since the conference’s biggest names were in the national title conversation. (I wouldn’t count Washington last year — low-profile team that kind of snuck into the final four.)
“As a result, not a lot of marquee matchups this season, a big reason why the ratings were so middling compared to the SEC or Big Ten.”
That comment, and the ‘middling’ ratings it references, strike at an essential question for the conference:
Is it better off with one or two elite teams, or with parity?
Commissioner Larry Scott was asked about that ying-yang at a press conference prior to the championship game. His preference is quality depth: The more good teams there are, the healthier the conference is.
…
For many, however, the playoff has reshaped the nature of the sport, combining with the competition for eyeballs to place the focus squarely on excellence.
One could make the case, especially from a financial standpoint (given the paychecks issued to conferences with playoff participants), that the Pac-12 would be better off with two elite teams and no parity.
…
Parity or excellence? It’s exceedingly difficult to have both. The Pac-12’s ethos oozes the former. But do the evolving realities of the sport demand the latter?
While having less parity would improve ratings for the top games in the P12, I don’t think it would cure all their ills. You pay a price in terms of the ratings for the bottom games for one. It also doesn’t change the lack of fervor of western fans.
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9 of the 10 Pac 10 games involved USC or UCLA. The one that didn’t had Notre Dame facing Stanford. 9 of the 10 Big 10 games involved Ohio St. or Michigan. PSU-IA was the other. I imagine you would find the same pattern with FSU/Clemson most years (maybe Clemson/Miami this year) in the ACC and Texas/Oklahoma in the Big 12. And Alabama dominates the top of the SEC ratings. The same point about enthusiasm is true, but the dominance of a few powers in TV ratings is common everywhere.
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bullet,
“9 of the 10 Pac 10 games involved USC or UCLA. The one that didn’t had Notre Dame facing Stanford. 9 of the 10 Big 10 games involved Ohio St. or Michigan. PSU-IA was the other. I imagine you would find the same pattern with FSU/Clemson most years (maybe Clemson/Miami this year) in the ACC and Texas/Oklahoma in the Big 12. And Alabama dominates the top of the SEC ratings. The same point about enthusiasm is true, but the dominance of a few powers in TV ratings is common everywhere.”
That’s 100% true, but I don’t think I or Wilner knocked them for having just 2 schools drive the top ratings. What stood out to me was the P12 list having 5 OOC games versus just 2 for the B10 (3 for the B12). That means those OOC teams were driving their ratings as much as anything. Part of that is the P12 having 2 locked rivalries with ND, but part is the lack of enthusiasm out west (and the lack of DirecTV).
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2017/12/the_early_signing_period-nfl_d.html
There’s one inherent problem with the early signing period – it comes before current players have to declare for the NFL draft. For the top schools, that leaves a lot of uncertainty about how many scholarships will be available and how the depth chart looks at varying positions. You don’t really want to press players to be thinking about the decision during the regular season, so they generally don’t get their official NFL evaluations until mid-December. Then they need time to talk to their family and think about the decision. But with the early signing period before Chirstmas, you have to wonder if the top schools will push to do NFL evaluations earlier so players will decide before the early signing period.
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Where did all of the B10’s 2018 recruits come from?
37 – FL
25 – OH
24 – IL
23 – GA
17 – MI
16 – TX
15 – PA
13 – MD
11 – IN, NJ
10 – CA, NY, VA
7 – WI
6 – IA, MN, MO, TN
5 – DC
4 – KY
3 – AL, NE, SC
2 – AZ, CT
1 – CO, ID, LA, NC, NV, OK, SD
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Only three from Nebraska. Good Grief!
But, I note that NJ and MD produce almost as many each as PA.
Is this an argument for FSU in the B1G?
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Maybe GT.
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I think its an argument against UCF/USF in the Big 12. Florida is tough recruiting territory as it is mined by everybody east of the Mississippi.
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It is recruited by everyone, but it also provides the most elite players nationally.
But I don’t necessarily support the U?F pair to the B12 for recruiting so much as a large addition to the footprint. There are a lot of eyeballs in central FL to boost national TV ratings and they can host noon ET games to help the B12 spread out their games.
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U?F is a big step down in academic quality even for the B12. It won’t happen.
Why can’t people understand that these are COLLEGE conferences, and academics matters to college administration, faculty and even some students, who are generally unaware of everything?
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bob sykes,
“U?F is a big step down in academic quality even for the B12. It won’t happen.”
https://www.timeshighereducation.com/rankings/united-states/2018#!/page/0/length/-1/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/cols/stats
Times Higher Education ranks:
355. KSU
413. OkSU
437. USF
482. UCF
495. TT
U?F wouldn’t help their average, but they wouldn’t be outliers either. I’m not saying it will happen, but adding them as all-sports affiliate members could make financial sense for the athletic departments.
“Why can’t people understand that these are COLLEGE conferences, and academics matters to college administration, faculty and even some students, who are generally unaware of everything?”
1. Because the B12 already contains multiple weak schools so academics clearly don’t mean as much to them. If the proposed options wouldn’t be the worst schools in the conference, they are at least plausible additions. The B10 lowered their standards and took a soon-to-be non-AAU member because they wanted the athletic help.
2. Because athletics aren’t academics and the conferences don’t have to overlap completely. The CIC doesn’t contain the B10 affiliate members. The P12 doesn’t contain all their affiliate members. The P12 schools place some teams in the MPSF (Mountain Pacific Sports Federation) to compete against teams from the WCC, Big West, MWC, WAC, Big Sky and others.
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“…but adding them as all-sports affiliate members…”
Too Trumpian, right there with “alternative facts”.
By definition all sports membership is full membership, not affiliate.
The B12 is singularly a sports only affiliation conference, compared to the other P5.
I’m not arguing for or against U?F, just noting that they are a hybrid B8/SWC missing some major pieces that would/did improve their academic reputation. Not sure what UT’s response to adding lower end should be given their contribution to the devolution of the B12.
“The CIC doesn’t contain the B10 affiliate members.”
Isn’t the CIC is called something else now? And isn’t Johns Hopkins involved in an evaluation period considering membership?
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ccrider55,
“By definition all sports membership is full membership, not affiliate.”
Not in a world where a conference is both academic and athletic. Then you can be an athletics-only affiliate.
“The B12 is singularly a sports only affiliation conference, compared to the other P5.”
Then sure, make them full members. I was just noting that one could employ an athletics-only affiliate status to appease the academics.
“I’m not arguing for or against U?F, just noting that they are a hybrid B8/SWC missing some major pieces that would/did improve their academic reputation. Not sure what UT’s response to adding lower end should be given their contribution to the devolution of the B12.”
I’m not a huge advocate for the B12 expanding, I only brought it up in the hypothetical context of if the P12 and B12 were working together like one mega-conference.
“Isn’t the CIC is called something else now?”
Yes, but I forget what without looking it up. It’s now the BTAA (Big Ten Academic Alliance). It’s an academic conference that doesn’t include Johns Hopkins or Notre Dame. When it was still the CIC, it included the University of Chicago despite their not being an athletic member.
“And isn’t Johns Hopkins involved in an evaluation period considering membership?”
https://www.collegecrosse.com/2013/5/17/4340696/conference-realignment-johns-hopkins-big-ten-b1g-acc-big-east-ecac-lacrosse
I think this is what you are referring to. JHU had a committee compete a study to determine if the men’s lacrosse team should join a conference, and if so which one.
Part of the committee’s suggestions:
In addition, the Committee highly recommends that if the University decides to proceed with conference alignment, it should take measures to ensure the stability of the program during this period of transition. Specifically, the Committee identifies four criteria it believes would be important in any agreement to join a conference:
1. An initial membership term of five years
2. An opportunity to evaluate Johns Hopkins’ position in the conference after three years, at which point the option would exist to either extend the initial agreement or to part ways at the conclusion of the initial agreement
3. A guarantee that a decision by an existing full member of the conference to sponsor the sport of men’s lacrosse or the addition to the conference of a full member that sponsors men’s lacrosse will not jeopardize Johns Hopkins’ affiliation with the league
4. The ability for Johns Hopkins to maintain its existing television broadcasting relationship with ESPNU
The B10 agreed to all these conditions when the team joined. But then the women also joined and I don’t think they had the same conditions.
JHU completed their third year in the B10 this past spring, and I haven’t heard anything about a decision to extend the agreement or terminate it.
https://www.collegecrosse.com/2017/6/18/15823796/conference-realignment-is-coming-where-could-utah-cleveland-st-st-bonaventure-hampton-njit-hopkins
Moreover, the 5-year initial membership deal between Johns Hopkins & the Big Ten sunsets after the 2019 season. We should have a decision on what Hop will do by next summer, and while I see no reason why Hopkins wouldn’t or shouldn’t re-up/extend their Big Ten membership, it’s important to acknowledge that Hop could stay in the Big Ten, go back to independent status, or join another conference by 2020.
Speaking of which, the article mentions that Utah has added a team and has been in talks with the B10, ACC and others about joining for lacrosse.
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http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/12/florida-state-seminoles-bowl-eligible-reddit
Technically FSU might not be bowl eligible despite being slated to play in the Independence Bowl next Wednesday.
According to Reddit user bakonydraco, Florida State’s win over FCS school Delaware State, a 77-6 blowout on November 18th, may not count towards the Seminoles’ bowl eligibility per NCAA rules.
Via Reddit:
“For an FCS opponent to be countable towards bowl eligibility, the FCS program must have awarded at least 90% of the FCS scholarship limit. After our own investigation, we have determined and confirmed that Delaware State has not met the 90% threshold set by the NCAA. As a result, Florida State’s bowl countable record is 5-6, thus making them ineligible for a bowl game this season.”
Bakonydraco received scholarship data from Delaware State, and found that the team awarded 87 percent of the scholarship limit over the last two year period. Bakonydraco also notes that it’s possible Florida State could receive a waiver from the NCAA for the win to count.
“The most obvious is that Florida State applies for a Waiver under 18.7.2.1.1.1. We do not believe they have already applied for the waiver, and there was really no reason to for a number of reasons:
* Florida State had preseason CFP hopes and had no expectation of being borderline bowl eligible.
* Given how hard the data was to get, we don’t believe anyone had any reason to suspect Delaware State was below the 90% mark.”
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Jon Wilner with a very specific, and in my opinion justifiable, criticism of the P12N. Apparently the P12N had not a single minute of coverage of the early signing period on their networks. I know they want to get visibility for all their sports, but football drives the financial bus. How do you ignore it?
Of course, you would not have known any of that based on the Pac-12 Networks’ coverage of signing day.
Make that: Based on the Pac-12 Networks’ confounding, inexplicable, lack of coverage of signing day.
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But football recruiting? Not a mention.
No interviews, no news flashes, no end-of-the-day recaps and breakdowns.
The only coverage of one of the most important events of the football calendar by the Pac-12’s media enterprise could be found in a smattering of social and digital content (i.e., pac12.com).
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Meanwhile, the SEC and Big Ten linear TV networks, assisted by co-owners ESPN and Fox, respectively, produced hours upon hours of coverage, as you would expect.
I’m not sure the Pac12Nets need hours upon hours of coverage, to be honest. But there is a middle ground between hours and nothing.
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So I asked two conference officials:
What was the reason for not showing a minute of the crucial first day of the early signing period on the Pac-12 Network?
They immediately noted that the Pac12Nets were producing content on digital and social platforms, just not linear TV.
Then they explained that all the options were considered, and executives concluded that the nature of signing day didn’t lend itself to content on the linear network — to a traditional studio show built on analysis and highlights and interviews.
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If football recruiting news is important enough to be delivered socially and digitally but is not right for the linear network, why is there a linear network? (Why are there seven of them?)
How could recruiting, the lifeblood of the sport at the center of college athletics, not be worth a minute of time on your National network.
How are replays of games better than live coverage of football recruiting? (And no, there is no linear coverage planned for today, Day Two, or tomorrow.)
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Promotion for the schools + news for the fans + the networks’ first-rate football studio talent should be an easy equation to solve.
I mean, the Pac-12 Networks devoted an hour of coverage to the Players/Coach of the Year awards two weeks ago, but nobody thought signing day was worth a few minutes?
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During our conversation, the conference officials mentioned that there will be coverage of the February signing day on the Pac-12 Networks (the linear networks, not just digital and social).
That would seem to indicate that perhaps the brass didn’t realize the significance of this three-day December window, when most of the teams are signing most of their players.
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I haven’t confirmed this, but it seems entirely possible that money was an issue.
Because the campuses are unhappy with both the high Pac12Nets expenses and the low Pac12Nets distributions, the production budget is tight.
Maybe the cost of a studio show was part of the calculation to have no studio show.
All that said, the instinct for most fans is undoubtedly to blame commissioner Larry Scott. I’m not sure that’s fair. Scott isn’t involve in Pac12Nets production and programming decisions, nor should he be.
But Scott needs to get involved with the Pac12Nets on a higher level:
If he hasn’t already, Scott needs to tell recently-hired network president Mark Shuken that football must occupy a more central role than it has over the years … that it must occupy the central role.
That it cannot receive the same treatment as the Olympic sports, which are near-and-dear to so many hearts at the Pac-12 and the Pac-12 Networks.
That offseason football events (bowl selection day, signing days, NFL Draft) are more important than everything else.
That Shuken should double down on his best content, the football studio shows.
That social and digital delivery are important, and growing in importance by the year … but linear cannot be nudged aside, not now, not yet, and probably not for years to come.
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A look at how the various divisions did in recruiting. Blue chips are 4* and 5* players.
Blue Chips / Per Team
SEC West 51 / 7.3
B1G East 46 / 6.6
SEC East 42 / 6.0
Entire B12 42 / 4.2
PAC 12 North 26 / 4.3
ACC Coastal 25 / 3.6
ACC Atlantic 25 / 3.6
PAC 12 South 19 / 3.2
B1G West 10 / 1.4
By Conference
SEC 93 / 6.6
B1G 56 / 4.0
ACC 50 / 3.6
PAC 12 45 / 3.8
B12 42 / 4.2
The G5
CUSA 2
MAC 1
MW 1
AAC 0
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21867077/cleveland-browns-clinch-no-1-overall-pick-2018-draft
Woohoo! The Browns are #1. At 0-15 they have clinched the #1 draft pick as well as becoming the first team ever to lose 15+ games in a season twice (and back to back on top of that). Now they continue their quest to become the second team to ever go 0-16.
As a bonus, UCLA’s Josh Rosen has said he may stay in college another year to avoid being drafted by the Browns. Of course he has to decide by mid-January and the Browns won’t decide on their preferred pick for months.
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Any top college quarterback should simply refuse to sign with the Browns. There is a precedent. It worked out pretty well for Elway.
The Browns disaster is due to incompetent management. MLB was able to force out Marge Schott, and the NBA forced Don Sterling to sell the Clippers. The NFL needs to find a way to get rid of the Haslam family.
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Perhaps the NFL can use what’s coming out of the Pilot Flying J federal trial to encourage him to sell.
The new GM did well at KC, so maybe he can build up enough talent to make the team competitive. At some point a decent QB will want to play there if only for the paycheck.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2017/12/26/rose-bowl-more-like-supreme-court-bowl-georgia-oklahoma-matchup/979534001/
An article that reviews the history behind the Supreme Court case that OU and UGA won over the NCAA to free up TV rights. It discusses the issues and what might have happened if the NCAA had won. It’s a good read, especially for younger CFB fans.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/usc-oc-tee-martin-disappointed-not-to-get-interview-with-tennessee/
This answers a question many of us had during TN’s coaching search.
“It was a situation where if I was going to go back to Tennessee, it was to be as the head coach, not as coordinator,” Martin explained after a bowl practice, according to Scott Schrader of TrojanInsider.com. “I made that message very clear. So I was out of that discussion, so they moved on to do what they had to do.”
Martin apparently was questioned again at media day for the Cotton Bowl, with Ohio State beat writer Bill Rabinowitz reporting that the former Vols’ quarterback was “disappointed” not to get an interview for the head coaching job.
“Whether it’s fair or not, that’s debatable,” Martin said. “For me, it’s all about timing and the right timing and the places.”
So the AD didn’t want a fairly new OC to become head coach and the OC had no interest in coming home to remain an OC.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-if-college-football-hadnt-wasted-decades-on-polls-and-just-used-a-stinking-playoff/
538 used their CFB prediction model to go back and look at what would have happened if the CFP had been in place since 1988.
First, we’ll need a way to determine which teams would have made the playoff each year. Unfortunately, over the first four years of the actual playoff’s existence, neither the AP poll nor our Elo ratings (which are designed, in part, to predict the playoff selection committee’s tendencies) have completely nailed the playoff field with their four highest-ranked teams going into the bowls. But a combination of both has been a perfect 16 for 16 in terms of predicting the real-life playoff teams.
So we’ll use that Elo/AP combo to pick the four playoff teams in each historical season. (Our Elo ratings can be calculated going back to the 1988 season, so that’s when our hypothetical exercise will begin.) I also found that, once the playoff field is set, the pre-bowl AP rankings alone have done the best job of matching the committee’s seeding for the teams, so we’ll set the seeds that way in our mythical playoffs.
Next, we’ll need a way to play out the theoretical playoff games themselves. For that, we’ll use Elo, which provides a probabilistic forecast for any given game based on the two teams’ pregame ratings. In most cases, we’ll use each team’s pre-bowl Elo ratings to give us the chances of each team winning both its semifinal game and the championship game (conditional on making it that far). The only exception is when a slated matchup happened in a real-life bowl that season, in which case we’ll use the actual result for that semifinal or final matchup.
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At least one of these real-world matchups happened every year from 1988 to 2013 — except in 1989, when conference bowl tie-ins kept each of the four teams in our playoff field from actually playing one another.
I think it’s pretty amazing that almost every year the old bowl system reproduced at least one of the semifinals. That’s a strong recommendation for reverting to the old bowl system with a plus one as a NCG. I wonder if that would be even more true with the new bowl pairings (Sugar = SEC champ vs B12 champ, Orange = ACC champ vs ND/B10 #2/SEC #2) or less true?
The article has a table of the 4 teams from each year with their odds of winning the title. Just look at it there because you know I can’t format it properly here.
The good news for the old system(s) is that each year’s real-world national champ — or at least the co-champ — would be the favorite to win the playoff as well. (The only time a historical national champ didn’t make our theoretical playoff was in 1990, when Georgia Tech claimed the national title in the coaches’ poll but missed the top four in our rankings after entering the bowls seventh in Elo.) But the fact that the real-world champ tended to be the favorite in our hypothetical playoffs is no guarantee those seasons would have played out the same way: Even after including real bowl results when they happened, the championship favorite in any given year had only a 47 percent chance of winning the title on average.
There were only 3 favorites with odds of 60% or higher (1998 TN – 62%, 2005 UT – 61%, 2008 UF – 62%). On the other hand there were 8 favorites with odds of 40% or less (lowest was 1989 Miami at 31%).
Some controversial title years:
1990: CO – 37%, GT – 0%
1991: Miami – 34%, UW – 31%
1994: NE – 38%, PSU – 27%
1997: NE – 50%, MI – 37%
2003: LSU – 50%, USC – 50%
2004: USC – 51%, AU – 26%
2011: AL – 55%, LSU – 24%, OkSU – 11%
They also have a table of the hypothetical playoff results (appearances, semifinal wins, titles) versus actual titles and the net difference. Again, see the article for the table. Below are some key results.
Who benefited the most from no CFP? AL was +1.36 titles thanks to no playoff. Nobody else was up more than 0.50 (GT).
Who lost the most due to no CFP? OR would’ve been up 0.60 of a title with a playoff and Stanford up 0.42.
Most CFP appearances: UF 11, FSU 10, Miami 9, AL and NE 7 (safe to say the state of FL dominated this period)
Most semifinal wins: FSU 5.38, UF 5.27, Miami 4.86, NE 4.03, AL 3.64
Most titles: UF 3.04, AL 2.64, FSU 2.59, Miami 2.38, NE 2.08
Other B10:
OSU – 5 / 2.25 / 0.96 (-0.04)
MI – 5 / 2.03 / 0.85 (+0.35)
PSU – 2 / 0.84 / 0.36 (+0.36)
NW – 1 / 0.30 / 0.12 (+0.12)
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21926388/cleveland-browns-new-york-giants-get-picks-one-two-2018-nfl-draft
They did it!!! The Browns finished their perfect season, guaranteeing a parade around the stadium plus the coach jumping in Lake Erie, and they locked up both the #1 and #4 draft picks this year. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Draft order:
1. Browns
2. Giants
3. Colts
4. Browns (from Texans)
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2017/12/30/pac-12-worst-ever-bowl-season-power-5-conference
While the B10 is having a great bowl season (probably its best ever), the P12 just had the worst bowl season for a P5 conference ever at 1-8 (previous worst was 2008 B10 at 1-6). And there weren’t many close losses, either (MOV: +16, -25, -21, -18, -17, -10, -7, -3, -2).
The P12 has only had 4 losing bowl seasons in the past 14 seasons with a previous worst of 2-5 in 2009 and 2011.
This bowl season confirms what everyone has said about the P12 this season. It also adds to what was a tumultuous year off the field. That said, I think Jon Wilner overreacted in his article about the crisis in P12 football:
Had planned to spend the weekend piecing together a year-in-review piece, but we’re changing course to account for what sure feels like the early stage of a crisis situation for the conference’s football product.
I don’t use that description lightly, not in the slightest.
But after a bad regular season on the field, a worse regular season off the field (Kirk Herbstreit! cupcakes! truck racing!) and an unprecedented postseason meltdown — plus several natural headwinds — it’s fair to say the football finger should be inching toward the panic button.
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The bowl results substantiate, if not bolster the narrative that the Pac-12 was a second-rate conference during the regular season — that it didn’t deserve to sniff the playoffs.
There were issues off the field, too, with the Washington-ESPN hubbub and the scheduling woes (Saturday road games followed by Friday road games) and the out-of-nowhere shot at the Pac-12 Networks by ESPN’s Chris Fowler and the incomprehensible snubbing of Stanford-Washington by FS1 because of a truck race gone long.
Ask yourself: Is any other conference encountering issues like those mentioned above?
Big Ten games aren’t getting bumped by a truck race. ACC coaches aren’t getting ripped by Kirk Herbstreit. Fowler isn’t taking shots at the SEC Network.
That bleak situation got worse in the postseason, courtesy of the worst across-the-board showing by a single conference in the sport’s history.
And let’s not forget: The Pac-12 has missed the playoff two of the past three years and hasn’t won a playoff game since Oregon in 2014.
(Oh, and this: Of the dozens of bowl games played thus far, only one has been defined by bad officiating: the Music City. And guess which conference provided the officiating. The Pac-12 crew embarrassed itself and the conference.)
Panic time? Crisis situation?
At the very least, Pac-12 football — the entirety of the brand, not just an individual team or two — is trending in the wrong direction.
These things are cyclical and the P12 will rise again. It’s largely a function of getting the right coaches in place (look at the change at UW since Petersen arrived).
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21920124/notre-dame-examine-future-scheduling-strategy
Brian Kelly wants to soften up ND’s schedule to make it easier to succeed.
Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly says the school will examine its future scheduling approach with the College Football Playoff in mind after falling out of this season’s race with two November losses.
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It faced four teams in the top 16 of the final CFP rankings and five teams in the final Top 25. Four of Notre Dame’s final six games took place against ranked opponents.
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“We didn’t have that breather game the week before one of our rivals,” Kelly told ESPN. “There’s some other conferences that have it built in, and they do it for a reason, and it works out well for them. That’s really an institutional decision, and we’re going to have to sit down, we’re going to have to look at it hard. We thought the 13th [data] point was really important, right? But that doesn’t seem to be that important anymore.
“It seems like the goal posts shift and move a little bit as it comes to how you get in, and this schedule is really, really difficult.”
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Asked if a different approach to scheduling could upset Notre Dame fans, Kelly replied, “I know this: They’re mad because we didn’t make the playoffs. So if you win ’em all, they can’t be mad at you. We’ve got to play our five ACC schools, so you can’t have everything.”
This exactly the message that the CFP committee’s decision to include AL sent. The key to getting in is a cupcake schedule with only 1 loss. Let everyone else lose their way out of it.
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We’ll see if Kelly’s president and ND’s rabid independent base will go for it. They could have joined a conference long ago, but their scheduling was too important. Now they will accept scheduling a cupcake or two? Color me skeptical.
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Happy New Year!
A bit early, but as I age some I’ll probably be asleep before midnight…
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http://thecomeback.com/soccer/prepare-possibility-united-states-doesnt-host-2026-world-cup.html
There is some concern that the Canada/USA/Mexico joint bid for the 2026 World Cup may lose out to Morocco for reasons unrelated to the actual bids. The vote is in June of 2018.
According to Washington Post’s Steven Goff, there is fear among those inside the North America bid that Morocco is gaining support to host the 2026 World Cup. Not because their bid is better than the North America bid but due to a shrinking popularity for the United States around the world because of Donald Trump’s presidency and in order to get revenge on the United States for the FIFA corruption trials and investigations.
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Due to new voting rules in order to try and keep corruption out of the voting process, each FIFA country gets a vote in an open bid process. Goff points out that assuming they vote as a bloc, Morocco would get 53 votes from Africa simply because Africa would likely vote for their country mate. Morocco only needs 104 votes to host and would have more than half the votes they need just from Africa alone. The North America bid would get 32 votes from CONCACAF if they vote as a bloc.
In terms of the two bids, the North America bid is by far the better bid. They already have the infrastructure and facilities in order to host a 48 team World Cup. Morocco has infrastructure issues and only put nine stadiums in their proposal, which would make it tough to do a 48 team World Cup.
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Chicago got dumped in the first round with the ultra popular internationally Barack Obama as president. The president has nothing to do with it. That part of the article is just WaPo TDS. We are unpopular in a lot of the world regardless of who our president is.
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I think the possibility of FIFA people voting against the US due to the prosecutions is very possible, though. People don’t like having their boat rocked when it is working so well for them.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2017-cotton-bowl/2017/12/89486/ohio-state-cornerback-denzel-ward-to-skip-cotton-bowl
For those who didn’t hear, OSU’s CB Denzel Ward opted to sit out of the Cotton Bowl to avoid any risk to his NFL future. People used to say this would only happen for the lesser bowl games, but now the NY6 games are on the table too. How long until someone sits out a CFP game or even an entire season?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/12/28/cord-cutters-likely-have-even-more-choices-2018-year-streaming-video/908563001/
2018 may be a turning point for media. There are now more homes with broadband internet (82% = 94.5M) than with cable/satellite TV (92.2M). Also, internet-delivered live TV services (Sling TV, etc) are now up to 2.5M subscribers and are helping to balance the rate of cord cutting.
The extent to which current traditional pay-TV subscribers move to virtual Net TV services in 2018 will likely dictate whether broadband TV solidifies “a position as either the low budget-end of the pay-TV market or (as) a force of radical change in the U.S. pay-TV industry,” said Brett Sappington, senior research director for Parks Associates, a research firm in Addison, Texas.
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https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/leaders/wins-post-coach-career.html
The current leaders in bowl wins (still active):
11 – Saban (11-9), Meyer (11-3), Whittingham (11-1)
That’s tied for 7th best all-time.
Overall list:
24 – Paterno
22 – Bowden
15 – Bryant
13 – Brown
12 – Holtz, Osborne
11 – Saban, Meyer, Whittingham, Beamer, Spurrier
10 – Patterson, Richt, James, Vaught
Saban is 66, Whittingham is 58 and Meyer is 53 so all 3 have a shot at becoming #3 all-time.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21936289/scott-frost-cfp-committee-made-conscious-effort-keep-ucf-knights-playoff
Scott Frost said what many have been thinking – that the CFP committee consciously chose to keep UCF down in the rankings so that they couldn’t make the playoffs if a few teams lost.
“It wasn’t right,” said Frost, who is leaving UCF to be the coach at Nebraska, his alma mater. “I was watching [the selection show] every week, the committee sitting in a room and deciding that this two-loss team must be better than UCF because UCF is in the American, or this three-loss team must be better than UCF.
“It looked like a conscious effort to me to make sure that they didn’t have a problem if they put us too high and a couple teams ahead of us lost. And oh, no, now we have to put them in a playoff? But we just beat [Auburn] that beat two playoff teams and lost to another one by six points, and we beat them by seven.”
I don’t agree with him that it was a conscious decision. I think it was more about subconscious bias. People are terrible at comparing disparate teams and schedules. AL played a tougher schedule but had 2 top 25 wins (#17, #23) to UCF’s 1 (#20) and UCF was undefeated. AL looks better getting off the bus so they get the benefit of the doubt.
The system has to allow a reasonable way for G5 teams to be considered. If the eye test is going to carry this much weight, then the G5 is effectively excluded. I’m not saying the committee was wrong to rank AL (and others) above UCF, but I think their process to get there is flawed. The process should be more open (votes should be public even if not tied to a specific voter) and should have a rigorous procedure designed to treat everyone fairly.
I believe a plus one system would be a significant improvement in multiple ways. It would give a team like UCF the chance to show how good they are while also being better for the bowls. Assume the same NY6 games. How much more respect would UCF get for beating the team that beat AL?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21942367/college-football-playoff-executive-director-bill-hancock-stands-committee-decision-rank-ucf-no-12
Bill Hancock defended the committee ranking UCF #12.
“The selection committee respected UCF,” Hancock told ESPN on Tuesday. “After all, they’re the group that put the Knights in the Peach Bowl. To qualify for the playoff, teams need to play tough schedules against good teams — that is the way for all teams to stand out and be ranked high by the committee. UCF is an excellent team, but you still have to take into account who each team played and defeated during the regular season.”
Or the team can be Alabama.
When asked about the criticism that the committee’s emphasis on strength of schedule will lock the Group of 5 out of the top four, Hancock disagreed, pointing to Houston’s schedule in 2016. Under then-coach Tom Herman, the Cougars opened the season with a nationally televised win over No. 3 Oklahoma and beat a ranked Louisville team in November. Had Houston gone undefeated that year, it could have been at least considered for a top-five finish, but the Cougars stumbled, losing to Navy, SMU and Memphis. Hancock said he hears people say the system is unfair to the Group of 5 teams, “but I don’t buy it.”
So they might have been considered for the top 5 if they were 13-0 with 2 ranked wins OOC plus some in conference. But AL can go 11-1 with only 2 ranked conference wins and no division title and be #4. Yeah, that’s not unfair at all.
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Jon Wilner went into a little more depth about his proposal for a P12 football competition committee.
Forget all the specific issues and missteps from the 2017 season and consider the broader view:
The football product faces:
1) Natural challenges with the time zones
2) Contractual challenges with the night games
3) Limitations created by the Pac-12 Networks.
The conference opted to retain 100 percent ownership of the networks instead of partnering with Fox or ESPN, and that approach has resulted in shortages on the revenue and distribution fronts compared to the models used by peer conferences.
The Pac-12 owns what is, in reality, a regional sports network.
The current state of limited distribution and revenue is likely to remain in place until the next Tier One contract(s) take root seven years from now.
Key point: The size and scope of that Tier One contract will be based largely, if not entirely, on the quality of Pac-12 football at the time.
The conference cannot afford to have a second-rate on-field product, one that makes the College Football Playoff far less frequently than its peers. Negotiating leverage in 2023 likely will hinge on playoff success, not whether there’s enough depth to field an eligible team for the Cactus Bowl.
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Placing the intermediate- and long-term future of Pac-12 football in the hands of a committee made up of football experts sure seems like a reasonable way to maximize success on all levels.
It would advise on non-conference games and have oversight of the conference schedule, officiating, bowl partnerships, Pac-12 Networks coverage of football, practice parameters — anything and everything that’s not directly legislated by NCAA rules.
And yes, the committee would advise commissioner Larry Scott on the next Tier One negotiations. (Had the athletic directors been consulted on the current deal, some red flags surely would have been raised.)
Which brings me to the central topic of this discussion: Committee specifics.
My original proposal (outlined here) called for a 13-member group, with a conference official serving as chair and one representative per school, broken down in this manner:
* Three rotating athletic directors.
* Three rotating head coaches.
* Three rotating directors of football operations.
* Three rotating faculty athletic representatives.
Terms of service would be two years.
In-person meetings would take place three times per year: after the season, at the conference’s annual spring meetings, and at the preseason media event.
Additionally, there would also be regularly-scheduled teleconferences to raise concerns, to provide updates on initiatives and research, and to vote.
Who should be on the initial committee? I thought about that, too, and the names are below.
Balance would be vital: regional balance, divisional balance, academic balance.
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Central to the success of the committee is that each member has the authority to speak on behalf of his/her school, with full support of the president/chancellor and the athletic director (in instances when the AD isn’t on the committee).
CONFERENCE REPS
Chairperson (voting privileges): Jamie Zaninovich. The current deputy commissioner, Zaninovich is a collaborative, creative thinker who’s viewed favorably on the campuses. He’s also heavily involved in the strategic planning initiatives for men’s basketball — he works closely with Arizona’s Sean Miller, among others — and has experience with TV negotiations from his tenure as commissioner of the West Coast Conference.
TV liaison (non-voting): Duane Lindberg. Long-serving associate commissioner for television, meaning he has the contacts and knowledge to provide the committee with guidance on any issues involving the current deals with Fix and ESPN.
Pac-12 Networks liaison (non-voting): Mark Shuken. Recently appointed as president of the networks, his input on production and programming matters would be valuable. But the flow of knowledge cuts both ways: The more insight Shuken could gain into football issues, the better the Pac12Nets could act in its dual role as information source and marketing tool for the football product.
Consultants (non-voting): Dick Tomey and Mike Bellotti. Both have a keen understanding of the sport and deep contacts in the coaching industry. Put them on retainer. (Full disclosure: I have no idea if either would be interested.)
Wilner names names for all the members, but I don’t think most of us care about that. But I do think his concept has merit for all P5 conferences.
The B10 would have 15 members with one per school plus one from the B10 office. I’d fill the extra two spots by adding one band director (bands are impacted by some football decisions) and one football player (players have specific concerns).
It would be important to have diversity among the choices. I’d create 4 groups of schools so 1 of each group is represented at each level (AD, HC, DFO, FAR):
Group 1: OSU, MI, PSU
Group 1.5: Fills one of the extra spots or replaces the school that does from groups 1 or 2 – MSU
Group 2: NW, RU, MD
Group 3: NE, WI, IA
Group 3.5: Fills one of the extra spots or replaces the school that does from groups 3 or 4 – MN
Group 4: IL, IN, PU
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21944074/alabama-head-coach-nick-saban-critical-college-football-playoff-scheduling
Nick Saban thinks the CFP schedule is too tight (at least this year).
“Someone has to think about the players,” Saban said, “and not what’s convenient for the media or TV.”
Saban said that it wasn’t until after 1 a.m. that Alabama began packing up to leave the Allstate Sugar Bowl after beating Clemson 24-6, which meant that the team needed to spend the night in New Orleans and return to Tuscaloosa in the morning.
If anything, Saban said he would like an extra travel day between the semis and the title game to account for the lost time.
Alabama will spend three days at home before going back on the road to Atlanta to prepare for Monday’s game against Georgia.
Is there a reason the NCG can’t move to Tuesday nights instead?
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The question is more about the minimum days space between the semifinals and the championship. The thought was likely that 7 days was a suitable minimum, perhaps it should be changed as follows:
semifinal date on: MON-TU-WE, championship on THU no less than 8 no more than 10 days following (i.e. this year on January 1 and January 11). For seminals occuring on TH, FR, or SA, championship on MON no less than 9 and no more than 11 days following.
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I was thinking more about this year. Going forward it won’t be much of an issue except in 2023:
Season: semifinals date, NCG date = # of days between games
2017: 1/1, 1/8 = 7 days
2018: 12/29, 1/7 = 9
2019: 12/28, 1/13 = 16
2020: 1/1, 1/11 = 10
2021: 12/31, 1/10 = 10
2022: 12/31, 1/9 = 9
2023: 1/1, 1/8 = 7
2024: 12/28, 1/6 = 9
2025: 12/27, 1/5 = 9
The NCG is always on a Monday. I assume that’s dictated by ESPN. I just wonder if moving it to Tuesday would really be an issue for years with just 7 days between games. It’s not a common occurrence.
I also wonder why the NCG is so late for the 2019 season. They could play on 1/6 and still have 9 days between games.
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/01/college-football-playoff-ratings-overnights/
Good and bad news for the CFP in terms of TV ratings. The return to 1/1 and the Rose and Sugar Bowls plus the close game in the Rose improved things over the past 2 years, but the numbers didn’t match year 1.
2014: Th. 1/1 (west, midwest, 2x southeast)
Rose – 15.5 (blowout)
Sugar – 15.3 (close)
2015: Th. 12/31 (south/plains, midwest, 2x southeast)
Orange – 9.8 (blowout)
Cotton – 10.0 (blowout)
2016: Sat. 12/31 (west, midwest, 2x southeast)
Peach – 11.5 (blowout)
Fiesta – 10.5 (blowout)
2017: Mon. 1/1 (south/plains, 3x southeast)
Rose – 14.8 (close)
Sugar – 12.5 (blowout)
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The other NY6 bowls did fairly well but had some mixed news.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2017/12/cotton-bowl-ratings-espn-ohio-state-usc/
Friday’s Ohio State-USC Cotton Bowl scored a 5.3 rating and 9.5 million viewers on ESPN, per Nielsen fast-nationals — up 71% in ratings and 70% in viewership from last season (Wisconsin-WMU: 3.1, 5.6M), when the game took place at 1 PM ET on New Year’s Day. Figures include TV and streaming numbers.
Excluding the [2015-16] season, when it served as a College Football Playoff semifinal, Ohio State’s win ranks as the highest rated and most-watched Cotton Bowl since Texas A&M-Oklahoma on FOX in 2013 (7.2, 11.9M).
Overall, this year’s Cotton Bowl trails only 2013 and 2011 (LSU-Texas A&M: 5.8, 10.0M) as the highest rated and most-watched since 1998.
Though high for the Cotton Bowl, Ohio State-USC declined 15% in ratings and 17% in viewership from last year’s Michigan-Florida State Orange Bowl, which aired in the same window (6.2, 11.5M). It ranks among the ten lowest rated and least-watched New Year’s Six or BCS bowl games (94 telecasts) and is dead last among the 23 to involve either Ohio State or USC.
It also trailed the teams’ previous meeting, a September 2009 matchup on ESPN that had a 6.3 and 10.6 million.
The Cotton Bowl used to be a major bowl but the BCS really hurt it’s reputation and viewership.
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2017/12/fiesta-orange-bowl-ratings-highest-years/
Fiesta and Orange Bowl ratings were the highest, outside of the playoffs, since the BCS era.
Saturday’s Wisconsin-Miami Orange Bowl had a 6.3 rating and 11.73 million viewers on ESPN, per Nielsen fast-nationals — up a tick in ratings and a fraction of a percent in viewership from last year (FSU-Michigan: 6.2, 11.70M). Figures include TV and streaming viewership.
The Badgers’ win was the highest rated non-playoff Orange Bowl since 2014 (Clemson-Ohio State: 6.7) and the most-watched in a decade (Kansas-VT: 12.0M on FOX).
Overall, it ranks third out of the 15 non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls. The Rose Bowl holds the top two spots — USC-Penn State last year (8.6, 15.7M) and Stanford-Iowa in 2015 (7.4, 13.6M).
Earlier in the day, Penn State-Washington had a 5.7 and 10.2 million in the Fiesta Bowl — up a tick and 18% respectively from 2015 (Ohio State-Notre Dame: 5.6, 9.9M). Last year’s Fiesta Bowl was a playoff semifinal.
The Nittany Lions’ win was the top non-playoff Fiesta Bowl since 2014 (UCF-Baylor: 6.6, 11.2M). On the flip side, it posted the third-lowest Fiesta Bowl rating on record (dates back to 1985).
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2018/01/auburn-central_florida_gets_hi.html
UCF defeated Auburn 34-27, and the Peach Bowl posted the highest TV rating for a non-CFP semifinal bowl game in the New Year’s Six Era.
The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl earned a 5.1 overnight. The game was up 28 percent from the 2015 season game and 55 percent from the 2014 season game.
…
ESPN’s presentation of the entire New Year’s Six averaged an 8.4 overnight, the highest rated New Year’s Six in the system’s four-year history. This year’s presentation of the six games was up 8 percent from last year, 15 percent from the 2015 season and 3 percent from year one.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21946402/arizona-wildcats-fire-football-coach-rich-rodriguez
RichRod has been fired due to sexual assault and hostile-workplace allegations against him.
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One PAC coach gone midseason, one a couple week after early signing day and in the new year.
Coaching merry go round = year round entertainment.
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Matt Sarzyniak’s Looking Forward to the 2018-19 Collegiate Athletic Year
“I rounded up a few items that I felt would be worth keeping an eye on coming into the 2018-19 college athletics year with respect to television & scheduling. I did note a handful of items with respect to early season selections and I’ll do more in-depth items on those later in the winter.”
http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2017/12/looking-forward-to-2018-19-collegiate.html
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Bowlsby not ready to talk expansion–yet. http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21951825/big-12-commissioner-bob-bowlsby-calls-current-college-football-playoff-system-fair
Makes the comment that it might move the major bowls to the week before Christmas if it goes to 8.
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When the playoff was created, Bowlsby said, there were compromises made between them that still exist today — including a fear of devaluing the bowl system with an expanded playoff. He said if the playoff expanded to eight teams, it would likely push the Cotton, Peach, Fiesta and Orange Bowls to the week before Christmas — a move that wouldn’t exactly go over smoothly with those bowl officials. It would also require the players to go through a grueling 16-game schedule that included a conference title game, quarterfinal, semifinal and national championship — also a huge financial undertaking to fans of those teams to attend the games.
Still, Bowlsby said he realizes that UCF’s undefeated season coupled with two SEC teams in the title game will fuel the fire of playoff expansion talk — just not enough within the powers that be.
“It probably makes a more compelling case than has been made in the past,” he said. “There were lots of compromises that went into this, and those compromises are still valid today. I’m not prepared to take that leap just yet, but I’m sure it’s going to get some conversation.”
I don’t think this year will add any serious pressure for expansion. I do wonder if smaller changes might get implemented before the 12-year contract runs out. Things like changing the weight given to certain criteria or what data is provided or even adjusting seeding within the top 4 under certain circumstances (to avoid a rematch in the semis or to force 2 teams from the same conference to play in the semis or whatever).
Expansion would require the conferences being willing to hurt the bowl system severely but they all still benefit greatly from bowls for their other teams.
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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2017/12/18/Media/Sports-Media.aspx
John Ourand from SBJ gives his sports media predictions for 2018.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21954646/lsu-tigers-sign-defensive-coordinator-dave-aranda-new-four-year-10m-deal
In order to keep Dave Aranda from potentially going to TAMU, LSU gave him a raise to $2.5M per year to remain their DC. That would put him in the top 50 for head coach salaries. He “only” made $1.8M last year.
Aranda’s a very good DC, but is the value really there? Orgeron “only” makes $3.5M as HC. Perhaps that’s why Aranda can make so much, but it seems like this could lead to problems when the DC makes almost as much as his boss. At some point you’re better off letting the other school overpay while you go find a replacement.
How disheartening is this for G5 schools and even the less rich P5 schools? All DCs and OCs are going to look for raises in the near future. OSU hasn’t even had an assistant make $1M yet and now someone is at $2.5M. These salaries are getting ridiculous.
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Brian – from what I’m hearing down here, A&M offered Aranda a lot more than $2.5 per year along with total autonomy for the defense. Having the highest paid assistants in CFB was one of the agreements when LSU hired Ogeron, ie the money saved from not getting Herman or Fisher would be spent on assistants.
This is a lot of money, but LSU’s athletic department receives no state (taxpayer) funding or any amount from student tuition or fees. The athletic department actually subsidizes the university.
Aranda is loved down here (notwithstanding that inexplicable meltdown in the last minute of the Citrus Bowl), and the powers that be want him here as long as possible. That being said, if a school other than A&M (or Alabama) had made that offer, LSU would have let Aranda go. LSU’s president and athletic director get daily heat for not being able to close the deal for Fisher in 2015, and Herman/Fisher in 2016. Even though Orgeron is the first ever South Louisiana native to coach LSU, almost every rational fan would rather have seen Jimbo Fisher lead the program. Then, a year later, the A&M AD who happens to be an LSU alum hires Fisher. LSU couldn’t suffer another indignity at the hands of A&M again. However, we will accept the national ridicule for paying a DC $2.5 million per year.
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Alan,
Just to be clear, I’m not picking on LSU here. It’s the greater trend of salary escalation that concerns me. With Aranda getting such a huge raise, all other OCs and DCs will need to be paid more. While LSU and other big names can afford it, most I-A schools have to subsidize athletics already. This just makes things worse. I think the salaries involved may be what finally leads to outside intervention from the courts or congress in CFB.
I can understand the politics involved, but I still think LSU might have been better off letting Aranda go and stealing another DC (maybe grab Leonhard from WI). Arnada was the highest paid assistant in CFB last year at $1.8M and now he gets an almost 40% raise. I know the NCAA and others can’t regulate wages but they need to figure something out. Maybe they need an antitrust exemption so they can set a salary cap for staffs.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21961000/mike-elko-leaving-notre-dame-fighting-irish-texas-aggies-defensive-coordinator-job
TAMU has taken Mike Elko from ND for $2M per year instead.
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And FSU has taken MSU’s DC. I’m thinking the B10 is going to have to raise their salaries for assistants to keep up.
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The pay is getting out of hand. I am curious what coordinators make in the NFL. Wisconsin gets a lot of grief for not paying their assistants top dollar but it hasn’t impacted them on the field. I think there are plenty of good coaches out there. Dave is a nice guy and a good coach but there are others that are likely capable too. Maybe Coach O has a hard time identifying good assistants.
It seems all this extra TV money is going straight to the coaches. I am not a pay the players guy as that is certainly not going to come out of the coaching salary pool but it would be nice if the ticket prices would come down a bit.
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“Jon Wilner
@wilnerhotline
·
21h
buyouts for Mora, Graham and Rodriguez = approx $30M.
That’s $2M more than avg Pac12 distribution to each campus in FY16 for media rights, CFP and NCAAs “
So the pac distribution (or lack of, per Wilner) is crimping their ability to make decisions around FB??
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Well, I’d say Arizona was a special case. They had no reasonable alternative to firing RichRod. The money wasn’t a factor in the decision because of the larger issues involved.
Many people thought money issues would keep Mora and Graham around for another year.
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UAz should hire Graham 😀.
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“Well, I’d say Arizona was a special case. They had no reasonable alternative to firing RichRod.”
Then they should have fired him with cause, shouldn’t they have?
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ccrider55,
“Then they should have fired him with cause, shouldn’t they have?”
I think that’s a question for a lawyer. You have allegations of ignoring a player’s drug problem the night before he overdosed. You have allegations of sexual misconduct in the workplace leading to a potential hostile-workplace lawsuit. The school hired a law firm to investigate but the alleged victim refused to cooperate and the investigation couldn’t find any confirmation or any proof she lied. The school said they did find evidence that made them uncomfortable with the direction of the program.
You need a smoking gun to fire for cause, and even then the lawyers sometimes still get their client paid.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/why-an-eight-team-college-football-playoff-could-come-to-pass-sooner-than-we-expect/
A former TV executive predicts payoff expansion. He also discusses how from a TV perspective, they’d really prefer to have a B10 team involved. The downsides and difficulties of CFP expansion also get discussed.
The College Football Playoff will eventually expand to eight teams within the length of the current contract and be worth at least $10 billion, former CBS Sports president Neal Pilson predicted in a conversation with CBS Sports this week.
…
Also for the first time, two teams from one conference (SEC) are in the playoff. While that’s a bonanza for the schools, the SEC, the South and the site of the game (Atlanta), one TV consultant said this could be the lowest-rated game in CFP history.
“There will be some people who probably won’t watch it because it’s all-SEC,” said the consultant, who didn’t want to be identified. “It has the potential [to be the lowest rated].”
Low ratings could be one of the stressors that leads the CFP to expand, Pilson said. Former Big 12 commissioner Chuck Neinas told CBS Sports this week that the Power Five commissioners met following the Jan. 10, 2012, BCS Championship Game rematch between LSU and Alabama.
The rating for that game, 14.0, was the lowest for a national title game since at least 2010.
“We met the day after the game and said, ‘We need to look at a different system,'” Neinas related.
Out of that meeting emerged the beginnings of the CFP that debuted in 2014.
…
However, Pilson firmly believes the bracket will double to eight when the current ESPN-CFP contract expires after the 2026 playoff.
He also said he expects the current 12-year, $7.2 billion contract between ESPN and the CFP to be reopened before that date. Conservatively, Pilson expects rights fees would increase 50 percent to at least $10 billion if the CFP field was doubled.
“I think, from a competitive point of view, ESPN is going to focus on major packages,” Pilson said. “The most major of the ESPN packages is college football and the College Football Playoff. It would make sense for ESPN.”
Senior officials at both ESPN and the CFP would not comment on Pilson’s assertions. As a sports media consultant, it is believed Pilson doesn’t have any influence over those contract negotiations.
However, he was once one of the most powerful figures in sports television serving two terms as CBS Sports president — 1981-83 and 1986-95.
“If I were running ESPN — and I’m glad I’m not — I would be exploring the advantages of a larger playoff,” Pilson said. “I’m sure they’ve looked at it.
…
Another consultant doubted whether going to eight would be that easy.
“There’s too many factors in play, not just the current TV deal,” the consultant said. “The biggest component is trying to go back and try to tear something down and start over. You have to go figure out the Rose Bowl again. That’s not easy to figure out.”
Both the BCS and CFP had to convince the Rose Bowl and its partners — the Big Ten and Pac-12 — to be part of the system. Especially with the BCS, that process wasn’t easy. The Rose had to make the conscious decision to give up its annual matchup with the Big Ten and (formerly) Pac-10.
Expanding the CFP would bring a discussion about player safety. An eight-team bracket would mean the two finalists would be playing the length of an NFL regular season, 16 games.
Commissioners aren’t likely to cut back on conference championship games or the 12-game regular season.
“These conferences keep 100 percent of conference championship money,” one consultant said. “Let’s say they get $140 million for another round of games, split five ways. It’s a net loss for them [to cancel the conference championships].”
…
“Getting a team from the Northeast wouldn’t make a difference,” Pilson said. “Getting a team from the Pac-12 wouldn’t make a difference, either. The matchup you’d like to have is a traditional Southern power like Alabama with Ohio State or Michigan.”
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https://athlonsports.com/college-football/early-college-football-top-25-2018
The first way-too-early top 25 for 2018 is out.
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. OSU
4. UGA
5. Miami
6. OU
7. MI
8. WI
9. AU
10. MSU
11. PSU
12. UW
13. USC
14. Stanford
15. ND
16. VT
17. FSU
18. Texas
19. LSU
20. Boise
21. MS St
22. WV
23. OR
24. KSU
25. UF
Five B10 teams in the top 11 seems optimistic. I don’t understand how they put MI at #7 other than wishful thinking. I think OSU is too high since we’re losing Barrett. PSU is too low since most of their tough games are at home (OSU, MSU, WI).
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/01/a_way-too-early_big_ten_footba.html
In that vein, here’s a way-too-early B10 power ranking from an OSU beat writer (so take OSU’s ranking with a grain of salt):
1. OSU
2. WI
3. PSU
4. MI
5. MSU
6. NW
7. IA
8. UMD
9. PU
10. NE
11. IN
12. RU
13. MN
14. IL (sorry Frank)
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I just want to know if Lovie is recruiting TX and FL at the expense of the greater Chicago area to stick it to the “meat-heads” who he might blame for his ouster from the Bears.
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urbanleftbehind,
“I just want to know if Lovie is recruiting TX and FL at the expense of the greater Chicago area to stick it to the “meat-heads” who he might blame for his ouster from the Bears.”
The entire B10 only took 24 recruits from IL so far this season. IL only produced 5 4* players and 50 3* players with 0 5* players. UI took 2 3* players with a third committed but not yet signed, all in the top 25 from the state. Maybe others didn’t want to go to UI rather than UI didn’t recruit them. Generally better programs took the other top players from IL.
I admit that it seems like UI should’ve done better in IL, but that could be a lack of connections to HS coaches rather than lack of effort. Lovie’s staff hasn’t been there very long and it takes time to build relationships. This is the downside of hiring an NFL guy who brings in a mostly NFL-based staff.
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This could end like Mike Davis at IU, but at least he got them deep into the postseason.
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The semifinal results over the years show one of many flaws in the CFP system.
#1: 2-2
#2: 3-1
#3: 1-3
#4: 2-2
There are multiple options to explain why #4 is 2-2 versus #1, all of them bad for the current CFP:
a. The ranking process is highly flawed, meaning that teams left out could be better than teams chosen.
b. #4 is very close to #1 in ability, meaning that #5 is also very close to #1 so the CFP should expand to include all contenders.
c. Single games are a terrible way to tell which team is better and the better team frequently loses.
The finals show something that’s been true in CFB for 40 years: #2 beats #1 (AP poll) more than 50% of the time. #2 is 19-16 versus #1 since 1978 (#1 was 12-1-2 from 1936-1977). It’s even worse in the postseason at 14-9 for #2 since 1978, 14-13 all-time.
In other words, after an entire season of games the AP poll (and the CFP committee) was wrong more often than it was right about which team would win head to head between the top 2.
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On a related note, am I the only one that thinks they should fudge the seeding to make 2 teams from the same conference play in a semifinal? That way the final will be guaranteed to have some diversity and keep more fans interested nationally. I know the counterargument is that if they are separate, you might never have an all-SEC (or whomever) game while pairing them in the semi guarantees it. But I think it’s better to hurt 1 of 2 semifinals than to risk the NCG.
Of course, I’d also fudge the seeding for the bets games in any case. Avoid a rematch in the semifinals. If the B10 and P12 both get a team in, always have them play each other. Things like that.
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And let’s look at the overall results:
The lower seed is 4-0 in the NCG (#4 is 2-0, #2 is 2-0).
Total records:
#1: 2-4
#2: 5-2 & 2 titles
#3: 1-4
#4: 4-2 & 2 titles
And we’re supposed to believe that this really determines the “true champion” on the field? Why should we not think #5 and #6 would win at least as much as #1 or #3? At least in MBB the top seeds win more often.
And this year we have #2 tied #3 who also tied #4. How definitive. All we know for sure is that #1 was apparently the worst of the bunch.
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Is everyone ready for the red state Super Bowl (which probably won’t draw all that well outside the South)?
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/01/04/alabama-scott-cochran-runner-trophy
To me, this video emphasizes everything that’s wrong with CFB today thanks to the playoff. After AL upset Clemson to revenge their NCG loss, AL’s strength coach destroyed their runner up trophy from last year. I get being excited about the win and being upset about the loss. But destroying a second place trophy? Is being #2 really that terrible? Should the Olympics just hand out gold medals?
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http://www.nola.com/tulane/index.ssf/2018/01/tulane_championship_shirt.html
Congrats to Tulane, now claiming their 1998 national title for going 12-0. I think all the G5 schools should do this. Maybe the weaker P5s, too.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristidosh/2017/12/30/college-football-playoff-payouts-by-conference-for-2017-2018/
Kristi Dosh takes a look at CFP/NY6 payouts for this season.
ACC – $87.5M
B10 – $60M
B12 – $89.5M
P12 – $62M
SEC – $70M
G5 – $85.32M
ND – $2.65M
Other independents – $928,503
I-AA – $2.53M
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kristidosh/2018/01/01/how-have-college-football-playoff-payouts-compared-to-bcs-a-conference-by-conference-breakdown/
Dosh looks at overall CFP payments and how they compare to the BCS era. This article has tables in it, so I’ll present some of the data here but suggest you follow the link for more information.
ACC:
Last year of BCS – $34.2M
CFP average – $80.1M
B10:
Last year of BCS – $34.2M
CFP average – $95.8M
B12:
Last year of BCS – $34.2M
CFP average – $77.5M
P12:
Last year of BCS – $27.9M
CFP average – $78.5M
SEC:
Last year of BCS – $34.2M
CFP average – $88.9M
G5:
Last year of BCS – $13.2M
CFP average – $83.7M
ND:
Last year of BCS – $2.3M
CFP average – $3.6M
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First, a correction:
For 2017-18, that should have been:
B10 – $89.5M
B12 – $60M
Some additional analysis:
Let’s normalize by the number of schools in each conference/group:
2017-18:
B10 – $6.39M
ACC – $6.25M
B12 – $6.00M
P12 – $5.17M
SEC – $5.00M
ND – $2.65M
G5 – $1.38M
Clearly being smaller has paid off for the B12 in this metric. Of course, those numbers vary from year to year based on which bowls host the semifinals and/or who plays in the Orange Bowl. We’l evaluate that later.
Now let’s look at the normalized BCS payouts:
B12 – $3.42M
ACC – $2.85M
B10 – $2.85M
SEC – $2.44M
P12 – $2.33M
ND – $2.32M
G5 – $0.26M
The G5 and P5 gained a lot while ND stayed basically steady. The P5 went up by $3M while the G5 only gained $1.1M, but that was a factor of 2 for the P5 and a factor of 5 for the G5. The CFP is better for everyone (except the Big East -> AAC schools) and more equal.
Normalized CFP averages:
B12: $7.75M
B10: $6.84M
P12: $6.54M
SEC: $6.35M
ACC: $5.72M
ND: $3.59M
Dosh gave the 4-year totals, but the semifinals rotate on a 3-year cycle. Non-semifinal Orange Bowl appearances have been split 2 for the B10 and 1 for the SEC, but it’s 1/1 over the first 3 years.
Normalized CFP averages for the first 3 years only:
B12: $8.33M
P12: $7.00M
B10: $6.99M
SEC: $6.80M
ACC: $5.55M
The B12 benefits by $1.3M per school due to their size while the ACC lags by $1.3M. The other 3 are essentially equal. After 4 years a similar pattern existed but with smaller gaps (< $1M).
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Some data on the P12’s use of a centralized review command center:
* Average replay review time in 2017 was 59 seconds, compared to 1:01 in 2016.
* Number of stoppages for replays increased to 202 this season, up from 194.
Also noteworthy: the average length of games declined seven minutes, to 3:19. (The conference had made shortening game time a priority.)
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A look at the impact of the new tax plan eliminating the deduction for athletic donations on schools in CO but the same concept applies in every state.
Colorado and Colorado State combined to generate roughly $12 million annually through these specific gifts, and as of Jan. 1 the federal government no longer picks up a percentage of the tab come tax season.
…
The recent tax change will save the federal government $1.9 billion over the next decade, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. But at what cost to CU, CSU, the University of Denver and the Air Force Academy?
…
CU and CSU require donations to the Buff Club and Ram Club, respectively, for fans to purchase premium season tickets for football and men’s basketball. Annually, CU gets about $7 million and CSU brings in roughly $5 million through those gifts, according to figures provided by each school.
…
It’s difficult to predict how the new law might impact the bottom line for either athletic department, with season ticket donations one of several revenue streams available for donations and overall funding. At CU, $7 million in annual ticket-related gifts make up about 8 percent of the Buffs’ $89 million budget. At CSU, $5 million in donations make up roughly 12 percent of the Rams’ $40.8 million budget.
…
Not every athletic department in the state relies on a similar donation structure. The only gift required for premium season tickets at Air Force is $20 annually for selected hockey seats. While DU also requires donations for some ticket levels for its primary sports, the school did not send a letter to boosters outlining the changes. Brandon MacNeill, DU’s vice chancellor for external affairs, told The Denver Post: “We do not see this as a significant challenge.”
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https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/by-the-numbers-fbs-assistant-football-coach-contracts/
A look at the growth of coaches salaries, both HCs and assistants, in table form as well as in graphs.
It breaks out each P5 conference separately and also looks at the G5 as one group.
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https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/how-the-new-excise-tax-impacts-coach-compensation/
A detailed look at how the new excise tax may impact coaching compensation.
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USA Today column on problems in college football, primarily related to pay to coaches and not to athletes. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2018/01/07/underneath-glitz-playoff-warning-money-coaches-not-players-me-too/1011059001/
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People continue to deny this, but if you pay college football players you have to pay every college varsity athlete, and each of them has to get the same pay and benefits. In as much as the great majority of college football program actually lose money, paying athletes would shut down varsity sports. The intramural stuff would survive on a pay to play basis.
Colleges can argue, and they do, and they do so correctly, that athletes get compensation in the form of an education. That some college athletes don’t want an education, and some can’t benefit from it, is not a counterargument.
Also, just because a majority of the football and basketball athletes are black doesn’t mean there is any civil rights issue involved. There isn’t.
There is already faculty opposition to varsity sports on most campuses, even schools like Ohio State and Alabama. The idea of professionalizing college sports is an anathema to the great majority of faculty, and maybe even non-athlete students. I suspect schools like Notre Dame, Northwestern, Berkeley, UCLA, Duke and maybe even Ohio State would quit varsity sports if they were professionalized.
And don’t think you can set up a minor league pro football conference using college names. The colleges own the rights to the names, and won’t permit it.
You also can’t use their facilities.
So, it’s what we have or nothing.
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Jersey Bernie,
It’s typical Dan Wolken.
This matchup between Nick Saban and his longtime assistant Kirby Smart actually was the third biggest story of the week leading up to the championship game.
First was the “#MeToo” movement hitting college football, as Arizona’s Rich Rodriguez was fired amidst a sexual harassment accusation. The second was LSU making a splashy announcement that Dave Aranda, who was being pursued by division rival Texas A&M, had been retained with a new deal reported to be worth $10 million guaranteed over four years. LSU also announced that it had paid offensive coordinator Matt Canada $1.7 million not to coach, 12 months after handing him a three-year deal.
There’s no way RichRod was a bigger story nationally. Most Americans have absolutely no idea who he is and don’t even know he got fired, let alone why. Besides, there have been bigger sexual assault issues in CFB than him. Nor was the LSU story big nationally. These were big stories in the CFB world, but that’s a small segment of society.
But with $2 million now becoming the new norm for top assistants, a rubicon has been crossed.
The new norm? One person gets paid that much with a few close to it. OSU is one of the football factories and they’ve never even paid an assistant $1M.
I agree with Wolken that there’s no salary ceiling coming, but I give zero credit to anything Sonny Vaccaro says. He is as sleazy and unreliable as it gets. Besides, Wolken undermines his own argument by pointing out that the top head coaches are worth what they make. If it’s true for them, why can’t it be true for assistants? Especially for the coordinator on the other side of the ball from the HC’s specialty. It seems to me you should look at the entire coaching salary pool as one lump amount when considering value. Let the people at the schools worry about which coach is worth how much. I guess I fail to see why one guy getting bumped from $1.8M to $2.5M is a major change in anything. He was already being paid a lot.
As for people saying players should be paid, maybe 1% of people are knowledgeable enough about all the related issues to have an informed opinion. Polls always show support for other people getting more money/stuff for free if they don’t think it is coming out of their taxes (and sometimes even then). Almost nobody understands the potential consequences of paying players, nor do they understand what players already get or can get (FCOA + Pell grants + jobs). Nor do they understand the money in college athletics and where it goes. For example, most people believe the NCAA makes a ton of money on football (we know the NCAA gets nothing from I-A CFB). They also think that the schools are making large profits, not subsidizing athletics from the academic side.
Then Wolken completely shifts gears and starts talking about the inequities involved with UCF. I think he spent so long on the money issues that this should have been a separate article.
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I agree with your premise. I could see a scenario where athletes are able to monetize their likeness down the road. But that would be the extent. I am not necessarily in favor of that but I could see that happening.
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The problem with that is how do you keep it above board? We talk about the haves and have nots already. If AL is allowed an unlimited payroll for their players, how would anyone compete with them? And at that point, does some of the scholarship and benefits become income? Will the IRS be busting football players for tax evasion?
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Frank,
SportsCenter’s title graphic is wrong. How quickly they forgot Scott Frost’s title at UCF this year. That makes it 6 to 6.
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After the NCG, it really emphasized the advantage AL has with their unlimited support staff of former coaches doing analysis. Saban presumably had multiple coaches breaking down UGA and OU from the second they made the CFP so they had full game plans ready to go. They probably even inserted some of the things before their semifinal game. Schools with more normal staffs have to focus on one team at a time with just a little looking ahead.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/21902794/alabama-crimson-tide-georgia-bulldogs-lead-way-too-early-2018-top-25
Mark Schlabach’s way too early top 25. Obviously things will change as more players declare for the draft, signing day happens then spring practice establishes new stars.
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. OSU
4. OU
5. UGA
6. WI
7. Miami
8. UW
9. MSU
10. WV
11. PSU
13. MI
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/01/09/early-top-25-rankings-polls-georgia-alabama-clemson
SI’s WTE top 25:
1. UGA
2. AL
3. Clemson
4. OSU
5. AU
6. WI
7. PSU
8. OU
9. Miami
10. VT
12. MSU
23. MI
People are all over the place on MI. Athlon had them at #7 as a reminder.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-power-rankings-the-way-too-early-top-25-teams-ahead-of-2018/
CBS’s top 25:
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. OSU
5. MSU
6. PSU
7. WI
8. OU
9. Miami
10. ND
14. MI
21. Purdue – that’d be the first time in a while
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2018/01/2018-college-football-top-ten-rankings-the-first-guess
CFN’s top 10:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. WI
4. OU
5. Clemson
6. OSU
7. Miami
8. MSU
9. AU
10. PSU
This is the rare poll to favor WI over the B10 East.
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/01/cfp-national-championship-ratings/
Much like the semifinals, this year’s NCG got better ratings than the past 2 NCGs but wasn’t particularly close to 2014’s NCG.
Monday’s Alabama-Georgia College Football Playoff National Championship had a 16.7 overnight rating across the ESPN family of networks, up 9% from last year (15.3) and up 4% from 2016 (16.0), both of which pit Alabama against Clemson. ESPN alone posted a 16.0.
Compared to the previous all-SEC national championship, Alabama-LSU in 2012, overnights jumped 21% from a 13.8.
The 16.7 overnight is the highest for the national championship since the first year of the playoff, Ohio State-Oregon in 2015 (18.9), and the second-highest since the game moved to ESPN in 2011.
All-time, Alabama-Georgia is tied for ninth among national championship games since the formation of the Bowl Championship Series.
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It was also 2nd for cable TV all time with 28.4 million. That puts it around 12th for college football games, including over the air. http://www.kiro7.com/news/espn-gets-strong-ratings-for-college-football-semis/680686868 USC-Texas was #1 with 35 million. Ohio St.-Oregon on ESPN was #2.
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bullet,
“It was also 2nd for cable TV all time with 28.4 million.”
I included that in the excerpt I posted (being 2nd, that is). The story used ratings and not viewers, but the result is the same. I think we’re seeing a clear pattern that the NCG rating/viewership is correlated to those of the the semifinals. When the semis are down, so is the NCG but not as much. It also looks like there’s a ceiling the CFP can reach as the NCG always tops the semis but by a smaller percentage the better the semis do.
We’re also seeing that the first year’s numbers were probably an anomaly due to the novelty of the playoff, suggesting the ceiling now might be about 30M for the NCG. I don’t know if the CFP will ever reach those 2014 numbers again. After all, this year’s game was close while 2014 was a fairly easy OSU win yet 2014 topped 2017 by 20%. There was a ton of advertising leading up to that first year’s playoff and I don’t think that effort will be replicated.
Semifinals:
2014 – 15.5, 15.3 (28.2M/28.3M)
2015 – 9.8, 10.0 (18.6M/15.6M)
2016 – 11.5, 10.5 (19.3M/19.3M)
2017 – 14.8, 12.5 (21.5M/26.9M)
NCG:
2014 – 18.6/34.1M
2015 – 15.0/26.7M
2016 – 14.2/26.0M
2017 – 15.6/28.4M
Ratio (NCG/average of semifinals) of viewers:
2014 – 1.21
2015 – 1.56
2016 – 1.35
2017 – 1.17
Hopefully the changes the CFP has made to semifinal scheduling means that years 2 and 3 were lower than future years will be. ESPN couldn’t match their promises to advertisers in those years. We didn’t hear about that being a problem this year, so the cutoff must be around 20M for the semis.
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Interesting article on students going to school in other states. Illinois has a significant drain of students, primarily to the rest of the Midwest. Has graphics covering each state. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/26/us/college-student-migration.html
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Illinois lost close to 14,000 net students. Second most was NJ which lost about 11,000. The thing about NJ is that there are probably only two schools that get any serious number of out of state students – Princeton and Rutgers. I can’t see many out of state students going to any other school. The thing about NJ is that it is so small, to really go away from home, many students go to other states. Penn State, in its many campuses gets a bunch and so does the University of Delaware.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22025770/american-football-coaches-association-wants-allow-players-four-games-losing-redshirt-status
Coaches want to let redshirts play in up to 4 games without losing a year of eligibility.
Berry was asked what potential opposition to the proposal there may be, and signaled he expected little.
“This needs to pass,” he said. “I don’t know that there is [a counterargument].”
Berry cited the fact that scholarship limits have been reduced and the schedule has expanded since redshirt rules were first adopted, putting schools in potentially problematic situations late in seasons when injuries have thinned out a position group and coaches are forced to pull a player’s redshirt for just a game or two. He also said that data suggests players struggle more academically and emotionally during a redshirt season, and the prospects of late-season playing time could have a positive impact.
“Emotionally it’s the most difficult, academically it’s the most difficult, because you don’t feel like you’re included on the team, and you’ve been a part of this all your life,” Berry said.
The proposal will be presented to the NCAA later this month, and if it is allowed to proceed from there, it could be adopted by a vote in April, making the new rule effective for the upcoming season.
I’d think any opposition would come from the academic side that see this as a slippery slope leading to 5 years of eligibility down the road. If you’re playing in up to 1/3 of the games, why shouldn’t that season count? I could see allowing 1 game, perhaps only the bowl game. Playing full time in one game is more snaps than a player on special teams may get in a season and their season counts against their 4.
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http://news.gallup.com/poll/224864/football-americans-favorite-sport-watch.aspx
Gallup looked at the popularity of various spectator sports. They’ve been tracking this since 1937 (not annually). The articles includes a graph.
1937:
baseball – 34%
football – 23%
basketball – 8%
Baseball peaked in 1948:
baseball – 39%
football – 17%
basketball – 10%
Baseball was still #1 in 1960 but the coming trend was clear:
baseball – 34%
football – 21%
basketball – 8%
Football became #1 in 1972:
football – 38%
baseball – 19%
basketball – 10%
The next change was hoops catching baseball in the 1990s.
2017:
football – 37%
basketball – 11%
baseball – 9%
soccer – 7% (tied for highest any other sport has ever been – tied with auto racing in 1997)
Now soccer is catching up to baseball. It’s only a matter of time.
The article also has a table giving the demographic breakdown for the 2017 poll. Football is #1 for all groups (gender, age, political lean, kids/no kids) but the margin varies.
Key differences:
Baseball is #2 for those 55+: 39/11/14/1
Baseball is a distant 4th for those 18-34: 30/11/6/11
People with kids under 18 favor soccer: 40/13/7/12
People without kids under 18 favor baseball: 36/11/10/5
For the past half-century, football has been America’s game, unrivaled by any other spectator sport. Even the challenges it currently faces have had only a small effect on Americans’ likelihood to consider it their favorite spectator sport. Though Gallup’s October polling showed a decline in the percentage of Americans saying they are fans of professional football, the drop-off did not occur among college football fans, and it may not have included the hardcore NFL fans who consider it their favorite sport.
…
Football’s relatively low popularity among younger Americans, combined with ever-growing evidence of the physical and mental damage the sport does even at the high school level, could jeopardize its standing in the decades ahead.
And for all spectator sports in the U.S., there is one other sobering statistic to consider. The number of Americans who say they do not have a favorite sport has grown from 8% in 2000 to 15% now — an increase larger than for any sport during that time.
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http://www.collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/app_final.cfm?sort=top5app&from=1968&to=2017#.WlaaIzdG1PY
A look at top 5 AP poll finishes in the past 50 seasons shows the lack of parity in CFB.
Only 44 schools have had a top 5 finish in those 50 years (250 slots). 21 of those have only done it once (10) or twice (11).
11 schools have done it 10+ times (64% of all slots) and the top 15 schools combine for 75% of the slots.
Over the past 25 years:
38 schools have done it (125 slots), meaning only 6 other schools managed it in the 25 years before that. 23 of those have only done it once (12) or twice (11), almost the exact same number as over 50 years. 6 schools have done it more than 5 times, accounting for 45% of all slots. The top 15 schools account for 73% of all slots.
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Is this a bad thing? Don’t we like dynasties? My wife, who was brought up in very rural NW Illinois, is/was a Yankees fan. Would it be better if we found a way to rotate the B1G football championship around the conference, so my beloved Purdue would get it as much as Ohio State?
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bob sykes,
“Is this a bad thing?”
Not necessarily. It depends who you ask, I suppose. I was trying to present the data in a fairly neutral manner. Many people have spoken about the “parity” in CFB since the 85 scholarship limit and the increase in TV exposure. This data is ambivalent. On the one hand it shows that a few schools still dominate the sport (which we already knew). On the other it shows a little more diversity over the past 25 years than in the 25 before that.
“Don’t we like dynasties?”
Casual fans and fans of those teams do. We also love to hate dynasties. But most fans wish their team would get a chance at the glory every so often as well.
For comparison, their have been 51 Super Bowls. 28 of 32 NFL teams have played in a Super Bowl (similar to top 5 AP finish). Of those that haven’t, two are expansion teams with less than 25 seasons (Jags, Texans). The other two are the Lions and Browns.
Only about 1/3 of I-A teams have made the AP final top 5 over 50 years. That’s a little too much dynasty for some people.
“My wife, who was brought up in very rural NW Illinois, is/was a Yankees fan. Would it be better if we found a way to rotate the B1G football championship around the conference, so my beloved Purdue would get it as much as Ohio State?”
I think it might help CFB if PU (and everyone else) made a NY6 game once every 20 years or so (240 slots, only need to be top 10-12 that season to get in). So many teams lack fans because of decades of discouragement. At least in MBB there’e always to win your conference tournament and make the NCAA.
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Should one of the two favorites (Pittsburgh/New England) win the AFC this year exactly half of all Super Bowls will have featured either the Broncos, Patriots or Steelers.
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The NFC dynastic set is a little more spread out – SF (6), DAL (6), NYG (5), WASH (5), GB (5) and MIN (4) for a total of 31 of the 51 appearances with only MIN capable of reaching the game this year.
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The first full season I remember is 1968 (although I remember a few games from 67, UT-A&M, OJ-IU in the Rose & a few others) and what I view as the 12 kings are the top 12 on the list. My next 4 “princes” are the next 4 on the list-the SEC 4 (UGA/TN/AU/LSU).
When you look at the top 3, the top programs are even more dominant. I have looked at the last 33 years (since BYU won the title). The 17 teams that have won an AP title have 82 of the 99 top 3 finishes. When you throw in Washington (half title), Georgia and Oregon, those 20 account for 91 of the 99 top 3 finishes. Only others to make the top 3 are TCU-twice, Georgia Tech (half title), Utah, Stanford, Mich. St., Virginia Tech and Oklahoma St.
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Fox Sports Brings On BTN’s Mark Silverman To Be President Of National Networks
http://m.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2018/01/10/People-and-Pop-Culture/Silverman.aspx?
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Important note:
Silverman, who currently is president of Big Ten Network, will have a bigger role than Horowitz, in that he will oversee all programming, production, marketing and digital for Fox Sports, FS1 and FS2.
Silverman will oversee all the live events and studio shows produced by those nets. Silverman, who was hired 11 years ago as BTN’s first and only president, will also continue to oversee that channel. He will relocate from Chicago to L.A. and report to Fox Sports President & COO ERIC SHANKS.
So he’ll still run BTN, but someone else will have to take over many of his day to day duties at BTN I assume. I wonder if his move to LA from Chicago (and thus away from Delany and company) will lead to any changes.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22046425/top-nba-prospects-denied-eligibility-g-league
I don’t think this rule is legal. Unlike other ineligibility rules that have been upheld, this rule wasn’t the result of collective bargaining.
A number of 2018 first-round prospects — including potential lottery pick Mitchell Robinson, who withdrew from Western Kentucky before the season started — have inquired about the possibility of playing in the G League this season but were told they are ineligible, a league source told ESPN.
That ineligibility stems from a rule that prevents players who were enrolled in college during an academic calendar year from being offered a contract in the same season, unless they have been ruled permanently ineligible by the NCAA with no opportunity of being reinstated (as was the case with P.J. Hairston in 2013).
The rule reads in full:
“A player shall be eligible to be signed a (G League) Player Contract only if he has satisfied all applicable requirements of Section (a) below, and one of the requirements of Section (b) below:
“a. The players (i) is or will be at least eighteen (18) years of age during the calendar year in which the Player Draft is held, and (ii) with respect to a player who is not an International player has graduated from high school (or if the player did not graduate from high school, the class with which the player would have graduated had he graduated from high school has graduated); and
“b. Either (i) the player has NOT attended a college or university in the United States or Canada during the academic year that takes place during all or any part of the season; (ii) the player has attended a college or university in the United States or Canada during the academic year that takes place during all or any part of the season but is no longer eligible in the current academic year (including by enrolling) to play basketball for the college or university during the season at the time of signing the Player Contract; or (iii) the player has no remaining intercollegiate basketball eligibility. ”
Players who don’t fall into this category include those with ties to the federal investigation into corruption in college basketball.
…
It also does not include players who have elected to withdraw from college voluntarily, such as LiAngelo Ball.
Unlike the NFL’s age restriction which has been upheld, I don’t see how this rule survives. All a player would have to do is hire a agent and that would end their NCAA eligibility anyway. If you’ll accept 18 year olds, then NCAA eligibility should have nothing to do with it. Otherwise they’re just incentivizing bad grades and bad behavior.
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http://www.lcsun-news.com/story/sports/college/nmsu/2018/01/10/nmsu-report-aggies-bowl-game-run-worth-24-million-earned-media/1021768001/
A reminder of the value of athletics to universities.
NMSU got over $24M worth of free advertising via stories in print and online due to making a bowl game this year. For a normal month the school gets 10% of that (5% from athletics, 5% from academics).
The school also took advantage and bought billboards in Tucson (the bowl site) to recruit students as well as using social media.
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The P12 is getting a SiriusXM channel this winter/spring (ch. 373 FYI).
It took the conference no time to accept the SiriusXM offer when executives broached the idea with Pac-12 officials last spring. (SiriusXM is also creating conference-branded channels for the ACC and SEC.)
“We said, ‘Absolutely,’’’ recalled deputy commissioner Jamie Zaninovich, who helped coordinate the Pac-12 side of the project. (As we’ll explain, Sirius is leading the way on numerous fronts.)
“It’s phenomenal exposure,” he continued. “It was an opportunity for us to be on a leading national provider in an interesting space. Their user base tracks well with our fans and demographics.”
That SiriusXM user base is “more than 32 million,” according to the company’s website.
…
Unlike the television rights to live Pac-12 events, which are owned by the conference (and sold to ESPN and Fox), the radio rights are owned by the schools (and sold to their multimedia partners, which also handle sponsorships).
The football and men’s basketball games are already on the radio — not only on local stations but also, in some cases, on SiriusXM, which picks up local feeds from schools across the country.
A conference-branded channel relying on programming that’s not actually owned by the conference creates contractual and licensing challenges.
For that reason, Sirius, not the conference, is working directly with the campuses and the multimedia rights-holders to piece this thing together.
That process includes the approach to broadcasting overlapping events: If two basketball games tip at 7 p.m., which one is aired on the SiriusXM Pac-12 channel?
Zaninovich said Sirius executives have promised the conference and the campuses “equity” in programming decisions.
To that evolving situation, add the task of creating the non-event programming.
The daily framework will be fairly standard, with talk shows during morning and evening drive-time and live events at night (and in the afternoon when possible).
The talk shows will have significant call-in component, which is great for fan engagement but has the potential to turn shows into complaint departments. (See: night games, officiating, Pac-12 Networks distribution, officiating and, um, officiating.)
The live events will focus on football and men’s basketball, but not at the exclusion of the Olympic sports: There will be a mix, but it sounds like the two majors will be the prime drivers, which they should be and must be.
Look for the conference to make maximum possible use of Pac-12 Networks content and talent, with its analysts appearing not only on the Pac-12 channel but also other SiriusXM channels.
And it could work both ways, with SiriusXM national broadcasters appearing on the Pac-12 channel and discussing Pac-12 topics on their own shows more frequently than they have.
It’s also a potential platform for Pac-12 coaches to reach recruits and, to a greater extent, fans.
I know many B10 games are available on SiriusXM, but I don’t think there’s a B10 channel. Is it in the pipeline? If not, is there a good reason why not?
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/disastrous-bowl-season-pac-12-little-opportunity-2018.html
One reason the P12’s 1-8 bowl record may hurt so much is that they don’t have a lot of great OOC games in 2018 that will let them change their perception nationally.
The P12 only plays 9 P5 teams OOC and the USC vs ND game is in November, so too late to really change perceptions for the conference as a whole. They also have multiple BYU games, but BYU was so down this year that those games won’t help.
P12 P5 OOC games
Too late to matter except to the team involved:
ND @ USC in November
P12 is a major underdog (need a major upset to help them):
OrSU @ OSU
ASU vs MSU
UCLA @ OU
P12 is a major favorite (can’t really help them):
USC @ Texas
Winnable games but not important ones nationally (unless Frost really turns around NE fast):
CO @ NE
Cal vs UNC
Chances to make a mark nationally:
UW vs Auburn in Atlanta
Stanford @ ND
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http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-12-05/ncaa-selection-committee-adjusts-team-sheets-emphasizing
Andy Katz analyzes the changes in how the NCAA committee will evaluate games on a team’s resume for the tournament. Road and neutral site wins are being given more credit.
Coaches at smaller schools are hoping this will lead P5 schools to play more road OOC games.
The selection committee will no longer use top 50, top 100, 200 and 201 and above as dividing categories. Instead, the new terminology will be quadrants 1, 2, 3 and 4. The decision is to get away from treating every team the same if the game was on the road, neutral or at home based on their power rating. Now the road/neutral games will matter more.
…
The breakdown will be as follows:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.
…
“The committee’s decision to focus on, for example, Q1 or Q2 wins, or Quadrant 4 losses, is a direct result of its desire to place greater emphasis on winning away from home, and to demonstrate how difficult it is to earn those wins,” said Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball. “A wider net is cast when you play teams on a neutral court, and an even wider one is cast when you play in a true road environment, meaning teams leaving their home arenas to play competition ranked in the 50-75 range have the opportunity to earn a Q1 win. At the same time, if you go on the road to play a team ranked in the low 200s, you aren’t penalized for a loss as much because it will fall in the third quadrant rather than Quadrant 4. Beating elite competition, regardless of where the game is played, will always be important to the committee, but these new quadrants redefine its definition of a quality win.”
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For Brian and Buckeye fans:
https://amp.ncaa.com/amp/news/ncaa/article/2018-01-03/whos-had-most-combined-college-football-and-basketball-success-last?__twitter_impression=true
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The B10 did pretty well on that list.
1. OSU
2. UF
3. WI
4. UL
5. OU
6. MSU
7. OR
8. ND
9. WV
10. UC
For OSU, it looks like Holtmann is going to work out well and keep our W% up.
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And with much the same team as last year.
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A healthy Keita Bates-Diop makes a huge difference. A terribly down B10 also helps.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/01/90246/ohio-state-games-against-oklahoma-penn-state-brought-in-more-than-200000-each-in-stadium-alcohol-sales
A public records request got OSU’s beer sales numbers for 2017 broken down by game.
Max = $234,000 in net revenue
Min = $129,000
Being a big game is the only consistent thread I really see. It’s more important than time of day or weather. Perhaps that’s more chance of OSU losing than big game.
OU (8pm, warm) – $234k
PSU (3:30pm, cold) – $227k
MSU (12pm, cold) – $181k (blowout)
UMD (4pm, warm) – $168k
Army (4:30pm, hot) – $158k
IL (3:30pm, cold) – $135k
UNLV (12pm, hot) – $129k
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/01/15/regular-season-schedule-best-games-matchups
The best games each week of the 2018 season. See the article for discussion of each game.
Week 1: Michigan at Notre Dame
Honorable mention:
Auburn vs. Washington
Florida Atlantic at Oklahoma
LSU at Miami
Alabama at Louisville
Week 2: Clemson at Texas A&M
Honorable mention:
UCLA at Oklahoma
Colorado at Nebraska
Michigan State at Arizona State
Week 3: TCU vs. Ohio State (at AT&T Stadium)
Honorable mention:
USC at Texas
Boise State at Oklahoma State
Colorado State at Florida
Week 4: Florida Atlantic at UCF
Honorable mention:
Texas A&M at Alabama
Florida at Tennessee
TCU at Texas
Week 5: Ohio State at Penn State
Honorable mention:
Tennessee at Georgia
Stanford at Notre Dame
Week 6: Texas vs. Oklahoma (at the Cotton Bowl)
Honorable mentions:
Nebraska at Wisconsin
Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
Week 7: Georgia at LSU
Honorable mentions:
Michigan State at Penn State
Wisconsin at Michigan
Week 8: Michigan at Michigan State
Honorable mentions:
Alabama at Tennessee
Oklahoma at TCU
Week 9: Texas at Oklahoma State
Honorable mentions:
Florida at Georgia
Wisconsin at Northwestern
Iowa at Penn State
Week 10: Stanford at Washington
Honorable mentions:
Texas A&M at Auburn
Alabama at LSU
Penn State at Michigan
Week 11: Wisconsin at Penn State
Honorable mentions:
Auburn at Georgia
Florida State at Notre Dame
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
Ohio State at Michigan State
Week 12: USC at UCLA
Honorable mentions:
West Virginia at Oklahoma State
Michigan State at Nebraska
Week 13: Auburn at Alabama
Honorable mentions:
Florida at Florida State
South Carolina at Clemson
Notre Dame at USC
Oklahoma State at TCU
Michigan at Ohio State
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http://www.limaohio.com/sports/280272/its-not-over-until-who-knows-when
CFB games got longer again and it really is all TV’s fault.
The average college football game in FBS (the big boys of college football) took 3 hours, 24 minutes this season, up 12 minutes per game since 2010, according to cbssports.com.
Ohio State games averaged 3 hours, 28 minutes this season. The shortest game was 3 hours, 4 minutes against Army and the longest was 3 hours, 43 minutes against Wisconsin. And that was just one minute longer than the Penn State game and the Michigan game.
As recently as 2010, OSU played five games in less than three hours and its longest game was 3 hours, 28 minutes.
Television is an easy target when looking for reasons games are getting longer. But just because it is an easy explanation doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
…
The fewer games a team has on television, the shorter the games. The more networks pay for the rights to show games, the more ads they want to run.
FCS schools (formerly NCAA Division I-AA) took an average of 3 hours, 5 minutes to play their football games this season. NCAA Division II averaged 2 hours, 48 minutes and NCAA Division III averaged 2 hours, 40 minutes.
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http://beta.latimes.com/sports/ucla/la-sp-ucla-guerrero-20180112-story.html
UCLA’s AD on the P12N.
What are your thoughts on the Pac-12 television contracts in light of the criticisms over things such as midweek games, basketball trips that can last five days, 8 p.m. start times and revenues that lag behind those generated by the other Power Five conferences?
The business model has been one that has been questioned by many, and we’re living within the confines and the construct of the deal points that exist. … We’re going to live with these deal points for the next six years, and … not going to be able to do anything relative to the negatives at this point and time, so the positives is really where you need to focus on — the exposure, the quality of the network, the content and what that meant from a positive standpoint for the institutions. The negatives … the most important thing that one can say is to be poised to deal with the next negotiating cycle to be able to optimize not only those things that are good about the network but also to shore up those elements as you’ve described that need to be remedied.
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Just ran across this and thought some might find it interesting. It seems that the name Southwest Conference has been owned by Texas State – San Marcos since 2000.
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I’m surprised the B12 didn’t keep the rights to it just to prevent another conference from building on the old brand.
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For all I know they may have had to dissolve the conference and give up all the rights in order to leave us behind. And then Southwest Texas opportunistically picked it up a few years later.
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If that was true, and it may have been, I would’ve expected one of the SWC remnant schools to acquire it. Perhaps it just slipped through the cracks as more important decisions had to be made.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/22046031/michigan-state-university-doctor-larry-nassar-surrounded-enablers-abused-athletes-espn
A long piece from OTL looking at all the adult enablers that allowed Larry Nasser to abuse so many girls and young women for so long. This is a huge black eye for every entity involved – USA Gymnastics, MSU, the private gyms, etc.
The former gymnast, who spoke to Outside the Lines on the condition of anonymity to protect her family’s privacy, agreed to be identified using only a pseudonym. She is one of the more than 150 women suing Nassar, his former employer Michigan State University, and other entities claiming she was sexually assaulted under the guise of medical treatment.
Starting Tuesday, many of those women will share their stories in a Michigan courtroom. Nassar, now 54, pleaded guilty in November to 10 counts of first-degree criminal sexual conduct with victims as young as 6 years old. The presiding judge will allow dozens of women or their advocates to issue victim-impact statements before she will decide his prison sentence. That sentence could be added to the 60 years in prison he received last month after pleading guilty to federal child pornography charges.
Understanding how Nassar gained unfettered access to young girls and young women over the course of a quarter-century — despite repeated warning signs — means confronting an uncomfortable truth: He didn’t gain that access alone. Nassar was surrounded by a collection of adults who enabled his predatory behavior — a group that included coaches of club, collegiate and elite-level gymnasts, the USA Gymnastics organization, medical professionals, administrators and coaches at Michigan State University, and gymnasts’ parents, whom he groomed just as effectively as those he violated. Now that so much of the Nassar tragedy has been exposed, a lingering question remains: Were each of those enablers complicit or simply conned by a man described as a master manipulator?
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Nassar is now 54 years old. I hope that he gets at least 50 years (I know that it won’t happen). He can be released when he is 104 years old. I have no problem with that.
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He already got 60 years from the feds for child porn. These sexual assault charges would add to that. They’re hoping to add at least another 40 years.
Maybe civil suits will punish some of the enablers.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/01/16/hugh-freeze-alabama-nick-saban-mike-locksley
Nick Saban had a meeting with Hugh Freeze about a job at Alabama (maybe OC, more likely as an analyst). Evidence that nobody is too dirty for Alabama.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2017/12/20/this-researcher-just-solved-college-footballs-biggest-mystery-she-can-predict-where-high-school-players-will-commit/?utm_term=.0a8a7dbd6453
Want to know where a recruit will choose to go? This Iowa PhD candidate has a model that’s 70% accurate and based on their Twitter and their biographical info.
She mined data from 573 athletes in 2016 from the 247Sports recruiting database who had at least two Division I scholarship offers and public Twitter accounts. Then she pulled their tweets, followers and accounts they followed each month and distilled the data into a model that makes it all easy to understand.
She found that if a recruit tweeted a hashtag about a school, his likelihood of committing there jumped 300 percent. For every coach the athlete followed from a given school, his likelihood of committing went up 47 percent. When a coach follows an athlete, likelihood increases 40 percent.
“The most significant actions online are the actions the athlete is doing,” Bigsby said. “Who is he following? What is he tweeting? What hashtags is he using?”
Her model crunched those numbers along with other data sets — i.e.: a college’s location relative to the recruit’s home town, a college’s academic ranking, a college’s recent football performance, and more — and spit out a list of universities a recruit was likely to attend, along with each school’s odds.
The model correctly predicted a recruit’s choice 70 percent of the time. And if the model was wrong, recruits generally chose the “second-place” college, Bigsby’s paper shows.
“We can narrow most people’s choices down to two schools,” she said, “but you never know what teenagers are thinking.”
The model could provide better predictions, Bigsby said, if researchers pulled recruits’ Twitter data every week instead of every month. Plus, she’s still tweaking the model to better interpret what tweets mean.
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Detroit News with a history of the Nassar sexual assaults. It does not make Mich State look too good. http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/01/17/larry-nassar-career-abuse-timeline/109560512/
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A related article about Nassar. https://hotair.com/archives/2018/01/18/monster-doc-judge-protect-mental-health-excusing-victim-statements/
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What amazes me is how many times he was left alone with a female patient, often under the age of 18. What doctor works that way, without even a nurse present? What parent lets him see their young daughter alone, especially if they’ve never met the doctor before? Why did so many parents let gymnastics coaches keep them away from their girls? There were so many danger signs in this behavior.
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That seems very rare to be alone even with adult opposite sex patients.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/01/18/boston-university-study-repetitive-hits-head-not-concussions-cte/1043489001/
A recent study strongly linked CTE to repeated blows to the head, not just concussion-causing hits. That said, it used a small set of data.
A Boston University study published Thursday detailed the strongest link yet that repetitive hits to the head — not just those that produce a concussion — can lead to the debilitating brain disease chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). The new research highlights the risks of younger athletes playing contact sports and could lead to questions about the effectiveness of current concussion protocols.
The study, published in the journal Brain, used two methods to come up with its findings: A postmortem examination of four teenaged brains and a study of mice that showed instant changes to the brain after trauma — even without telltale concussion symptoms.
“There are going to be policy implications to this,” Lee E. Goldstein, a co-author of the study, physician and associate professor at Boston University School of Medicine and College of Engineering, told USA TODAY Sports. “This is concerning, particularly for kids who are not old enough to make other decisions legally on their own — like to smoke, drink or drive a car. Just like we don’t allow kids to do those activities, I think we have a moral obligation to protect them from harm.”
The study was led by Boston University and included scientists from other institutions, including the Cleveland Clinic, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and VA Boston Healthcare System. It provided insight into why about 20% of the brains found to have CTE came from those who had never reported a concussion.
I think the conclusion is that a lack of obvious symptoms doesn’t mean the brain wasn’t damaged. So if a player takes a blow to the head, that should be sufficient to put them into a concussion protocol and not let them play for at least a week. They shouldn’t have to show symptoms.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22136009/college-basketball-conference-power-rankings-according-bpi
Conference power rankings in MBB. Despite what is a very down year for the B10, it ranks #4.
The rankings consider average BPI for all teams in the conference, the average BPI for the top-quartile teams and the number of projected Sweet 16 teams. I added the current number of teams projected into the NCAA tournament based on bracketology in parentheses.
1. B12 – 1/1/2 (6)
2. ACC – 2/2/1 (9)
3. Big East – 3/4/4 (7)
4. B10 – 4/5/3 (5)
5. SEC – 5/3/6 (8)
6. AAC – 6/7/5 (2)
7. P12 – 7/6/8 (3)
8. Mountain West
9. Atlantic 10
10. Missouri Valley
11. Sun Belt
12. Conference USA
13. West Coast
14. Summit League
15. Mid-American
16. Western Athletic
17. Colonial Athletic
18. MAAC
19. Ivy League
20. America East
21. Southern
22. Horizon
23. Ohio Valley
24. Big South
25. Big Sky
26. Patriot
27. Big West
28. Southland
29. NEC
30. Atlantic Sun
31. SWAC
32. MEAC
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/the-acc-is-worse-off-without-maryland-basketball-than-the-other-way-around/2018/01/05/f5a90386-f0a2-11e7-97bf-bba379b809ab_story.html
John Feinstein argues that the ACC is worse off without UMD than UMD is without the ACC, purely from a MBB perspective.
The sadness that fell over College Park like a heavy winter blanket was strictly about basketball. Maryland has no real rivalries in football and, even though football money drives the college sports engine, it is basketball that drives real passion at Maryland — as in most of the ACC outside of Clemson and Florida State.
But just as basketball was the reason for the anguish, five years later it could also the reason for finding some cheer.
In fact, the case can be made that, at least in a basketball sense, the ACC has suffered much more because of Maryland’s departure than Maryland.
His arguments:
1. UL replaced UMD and has been a constant source of scandal.
2. UMD struggled in their last few years in the ACC. Turgeon has improved their performance since they’ve joined the B10.
Could he extend his argument to cover sports in general? Other than in CFB, UMD has done pretty well in the B10. They’ve gained from joining a much better wrestling conference and their key sports of MBB and men’s lacrosse have found homes in excellent conferences. UMD also has financial stability that they lack in the ACC. Meanwhile, the ACC has all the same negatives from adding UL.
I don’t think it’s a major blow to the ACC, but they’ve gotten a worse academic school and that matters to them. They’ve also lost the DC market. They gained in football but got Bobby Petrino and his reputation to go with that.
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https://www.vuhoops.com/2017/12/21/16804290/villanova-news-links-big-east-expansion-uconn-gonzaga
The link to the piece at The Athletic is in the blog post itself. The Athletic is a pay site so I didn’t link it directly.
Happy Thursday, ‘Nova Nation! The Athletics has a cool profile of the Big East and some insight into the rumored expansion process. Val Ackerman confirms that the league has – and may still be – looking into it.
The problem is, they just can’t find that perfect fit. Gonzaga (distance) and UConn (football) seem to be options 1a and 1b, but with legitimate obstacles in the way the conference is standing pat for now.
Makes sense? I think so. They’re only looking for one addition given the desire to keep the home-and-home schedule. If you are going for one, wait for the home run.
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There is no chance of it happening – zero – but UConn might be better off dropping or downgrading football and joining the Big East. UConn is still waiting for a P5 offer.
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They keep hoping the ACC will invite them. I can’t see that happening unless ND joins the ACC fully in football (which isn’t happening anytime soon, probably never).
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When the Big Ten was 11, one team had a bye when 5 were matched against the other 5. Some took the time off, others scheduled televised matchups with non-conference powers, and Northwestern would usually play a mid-major or lower on a weeknight.
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http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php?orderby=mse&type=1&year=17
At least for 2017, ESPN’s FPI was the most accurate public model out there. Only the updated Vegas lines did better, and that’s the theoretical ceiling since Vegas would copy any model that did better.
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B10 schedules for 2018 look pretty tough (esp. the East), at least to this southern CFB writer.
His 2018 SOS rankings:
1. MI
2. NE
3. RU
7. IN
8. NW
10. UMD
15. OSU
20. MSU
25. PSU
26. PU
40. MN
44. IA
45. IL
46. WI
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No idea what his criteria were, but the conference split was pretty interesting.
Top half
Big 10 9 of 14
Big 12 10 of 10
ACC 5 of 14
Pac 12 3 of 12
SEC 5 of 14
Independent 1 of 2
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He didn’t specify, but in the follow-ups he mentioned game location and considering all 12 games. The ACC and SEC suffered because they play 8 conference games plus a I-AA game. As I mentioned elsewhere, the P12 has a terrible OOC slate this year which probably did them in.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22151987/lou-anna-simon-gets-vote-support-remain-president-michigan-state-university
MSU’s president got the dreaded vote of confidence from the board of trustees despite her handling of the Nassar scandal.
“Through this terrible situation the university has been perceived as tone deaf, unresponsive and insensitive to the victims,” chairman Brian Breslin said at the end of a nearly five-hour session to discuss the Nassar case. “We understand the public’s faith has been shaken. … This can never happen again. …
“We continue to believe that President Simon is the right leader for the university, and she has our support.”
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22154259/record-number-underclassmen-declare-nfl-draft
A record 106 underclassmen declared for the draft this year, surpassing the 96 in 2016 (95 last year). Many players seem to ignore the advice from the NFL advisory panel and come out when they shouldn’t. Almost 32% of those players went undrafted since 2014, so that’s roughly 33 guys this year.
I think only 13 are from the B10 this year.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2018/01/19/texas-athletics-department-operating-revenue-and-expenses-ov/1050205001/
UT set new revenue and expense records for an AD (ignoring OkSU’s $211M in donations in 2006 – $165M from Pickens for facilities), bringing in $215M and spending $207M. Technically they ran a deficit since they also gave $10M to the academic side in addition to those expenses.
The 2017 expense total is by far the largest single-year total during the 13 years for which USA TODAY Sports has compiled these data for all NCAA Division I public schools. Texas established the previous high of $173.2 million in 2015.
Texas’ new revenue total is the largest single-year amount for a Division I public school other than the $241 million (not adjusting for inflation) that Oklahoma State reported for 2006. Oklahoma State reported $211 million in donations for that year. About $165 million came from Boone Pickens, largely for facility upgrades.
There have been three years in which schools have reported more than $190 million in annual operating revenue, but each of those amounts also involved anomalous donation totals connected to facility projects — at Oregon in 2014 (football training facility) and at Texas A&M in 2015 and 2016 (both years for a huge football stadium project).
The article breaks down where the increased revenue came from.
—Ticket revenue: Up by $11.6 million to $72.5 million. That’s the largest single-year ticket revenue total for a public school, by more than $9 million. (Texas reported $63.3 million for fiscal 2015.)
Of Texas’ 2017 total, $42.4 million was attributed to football (up from $37.4 million in fiscal 2016). More than 160 Division I public schools reported less total operating revenue for their entire athletics programs in fiscal 2016 than Texas had in football ticket revenue in fiscal 2017.
—Royalties and licensing: Up by $9.1 million to $45.9 million. This is likely the category in which Texas reports its take from the Longhorn Network, a dedicated cable channel for which it receives millions in guaranteed rights fees from ESPN. The parties’ contract refers to these fees as royalties.
—Media rights, primarily from the Big 12 Conference: Up by $2.7 million to $17.6 million.
—Contributions: Up by $2.2 million to $42.6 million.
That media rights number is pretty low. I know it doesn’t include the LHN, but it reminds you why UT might look at greener pastures in the future.
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“That media rights number is pretty low. I know it doesn’t include the LHN, but it reminds you why UT might look at greener pastures in the future.“
??
Not saying they wouldn’t look for a different group to associate with, but those numbers say to me that other than ND there is nobody less incentivized to make a decision based on media income concerns. Over 70M in ticket revenue alone?
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ccrider55,
“Not saying they wouldn’t look for a different group to associate with, but those numbers say to me that other than ND there is nobody less incentivized to make a decision based on media income concerns. Over 70M in ticket revenue alone?”
Yes, they have a ton of revenue but they are also spending all of it. That means there is always some attention being paid to ways to increase the total. The other revenue streams are doing great. The only chink in the financial armor seems to be that media rights number (-LHN).
I’m not saying it’s a problem for them, just the relative weakness in their finances.
UT:
$17.6M + LHN ($15M average) ~ $32.6M
B10’s new deal:
$31.4M (average) + BTN (guess at $10M) ~ $41.4M
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“Yes, they have a ton of revenue but they are also spending all of it.“
Isn’t that basically how non profits work? I wonder if a portion is/can be designated for the drive for endowed athletic scholarships as described here: https://www.google.com/amp/www.expressnews.com/sports/college_sports/longhorns/amp/UT-seeking-endowments-to-cover-all-sports-5486486.php
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Have you ever known a non-profit to not want more revenue?
As I said, I’m not saying this is driving UT to go anywhere. I’m saying that if they choose to go somewhere, this might be the financial reason/cover (as a 100-year decision they would have non-financial reasons as well presumably).
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22159896/air-force-falcons-cancel-games-due-government-shutdown
The government shutdown is impacting college sports. The Air Force Academy is cancelling all athletic events. That impacts all the other teams in the MWC.
“Due to the government shutdown, all Air Force Academy home and away intercollegiate athletic events have been cancelled until further notice,” the academy said in a statement. “In the event a solution is reached, the Academy will work to reschedule as many missed events as possible.”
…
A Navy sports information director said the school is still playing its events Saturday, while the Army has not addressed the shutdown, though the Black Knights are expected to play games as scheduled.
Navy and Army’s athletic teams are affiliated with their respective military organizations but do not use government funding, unlike the Air Force.
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http://collegefootballnews.com/2018/01/2018-big-ten-football-weekly-schedule-analysis-top-games-rankings
A look at the B10 composite schedule week by week for 2018.
Top OOC games:
1. Ohio State at TCU, Sept. 15
2. Michigan at Notre Dame, Sept. 1
3. Texas at Maryland, Sept. 1
4. Iowa State at Iowa, Sept. 8
5. Notre Dame at Northwestern , Nov. 3
6. Michigan State at Arizona State, Sept. 8
7. Penn State at Pitt, Sept. 8
8. Missouri at Purdue, Sept. 15
9. Colorado at Nebraska. Sept. 8
10. Fresno State at Minnesota, Sept. 8
There are 2 weekends with only 5 games. Saturday 9/29 features 4 B10 games plus 1 B10/MAC game. The last weekend in October is slightly worse with 1 B10 game on Friday night and just 4 on Saturday. At least a couple of the games on both of those Saturdays are good games (9/29 – OSU @ PSU, MI @ NW; 10/27 – WI @ NW, IA @ PSU).
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-wrestling/2018/01/90466/wrestling-preview-no-2-ohio-state-vs-no-4-iowa
For those few wrestling fans out there, there’s a great dual meet today. #2 OSU will host #4 Iowa at 3:30pm ET on BTN.
Both teams are undefeated and 17 of the 20 wrestlers will be nationally ranked. It will be the final home meet for OSU’s seniors (125 – #1 Nathan Tomasello, 174 – #3 Bo Jordan, HWT – #1 Kyle Snyder) while Iowa is fresh off from upsetting #3 OkSU. OSU is hoping to break the all-time dual meet attendance record of 15,996 (I’m guessing they don’t).
Lineup:
OSU vs Iowa
125 – #1 Tomasello*! vs #6 Lee
133 – #2 Pletcher* vs Glynn/Laux
141 – #11 McKenna vs Turk/Happel
149 – #6 Hayes vs #2 Sorenson*
157 – #6 M. Jordan vs #2 Kemerer*
165 – #13 Campbell vs #8 Marinelli*
174 – #3 B. Jordan vs Gunther
184 – #2 Martin*! vs #20 Bowman
197 – #1 Moore* vs #5 Wilcke
HWT – #1 Snyder*!! vs #3 Stoll*
* – undefeated
! – 2016 national champion
!! – 2016 and 2017 national champion
Snyder is the reigning Olympic and two-time defending World champion in freestyle wrestling at 97 kg as well as the two-time defending HWT champion in the NCAA and is considered by many the pound-for-pound greatest wrestler on the planet right now.
The trio of great B10 dual meets will be completed in early February as #1 PSU hosts #2 OSU and #4 Iowa in back to back weeks (2/3 and 2/10) – convenient scheduling for the defending champions.
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As I expected, OSU couldn’t break the attendance record. Still, they pulled 15,117 (12th largest indoor crowd ever). That’s almost 11,000 more than OSU’s hoops game versus MN at MSG yesterday.
It was a tight meet with an upset at 125 helping Iowa to a 12-7 lead after the first 6 matches. Then OSU’s strength at the heavier weights kicked in as OSU swept the last 4 matches to win 22-12. OSU got a few bonus points (2 major decisions – wins by 8-14 points, 1 technical fall – win by 15+) but won by taking 6 of 10 matches.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B1G_Super_Saturday
The B10 really needs to rethink their Super Saturday plan of a noon MBB game with an 8pm hockey game. The first year worked well because MI played PSU (2 schools with sizable fan bases nearby) in both games. The last two not1 so much.
Click to access MBB_SS_1_20_18.pdf
Click to access SuperSaturday_HockeyBox.pdf
Attendance:
2016 – 12,108 (PSU vs MI) / 13,479 (#6 MI vs #15 PSU)
2017 – 8531 (#15 WI vs RU) / 5002 (#8 OSU vs WI)
2018 – 4136 (#22 OSU vs MN) / 3883 (#13 MN vs MSU)
4136 for a MBB game? What’s the point of playing at a neutral site if nobody attends? The B10 isn’t building its brand in NYC this way. The B10 needs to rethink this plan. If they want to keep doing it, then they need to have both games feature the same 2 teams as often as possible. They also need to choose schools with large NYC alumni bases (RU, PSU, MI, ND hockey, maybe UMD).
It’s clear that fans from MN, WI and OSU aren’t going to fill the place. Perhaps they should try rotating this event through different markets (NYC, DC, Philly, MSP, Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, etc) rather than the men’s hoops tournament.
Having the men’s BTT a week early to play at MSG is also likely to backfire with poor attendance.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/is-college-footballs-offensive-revolution-over-it-certainly-slowed-down-in-2017/
Offense was down in 2017 in CFB. The numbers reverted to 2011 levels.
Teams averaged 28.8 points per game in 2017, a decline of 1.3 points from a record 30.08 points in 2016. That marks the lowest scoring average since 2011 (28.3). College football took a quantum leap in 2007 with scoring average jumping four points per team from 24.4 to 28.4.
Since then, the national scoring record was set three times, peaking last season.
Average total offense was down to 403.6 yards per game. That’s the lowest nationally since 2011 (392.4). Average touchdowns per team declined to 3.65, the lowest since a 2011 average of 3.59.
All of it reflected the impact of the spread offense on the modern game. A combined 22 national records have been set since 2010 in rush yards per carry, completions per game, passing accuracy, passing yards, yards per attempt, total offense, yards per play, touchdowns per game and scoring.
However, there are tiny indicators that defensive coordinators are pushing back — at least a bit. For only the second time since 2003, no national records were set in 2017 among the 15 cumulative scoring categories tracked each season by the NCAA.
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Real bad year for quarterbacks. Think that has more to do with the scoring decline than defensive coordinators. See the Rose Bowl if you think defensive coordinators are getting an upper hand.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/asu/2018/01/19/q-and-asu-coach-herm-edwards-discusses-ceo-role-potential-changes-and-more/1047703001/
Q&A with Herm Edwards that examines the experiment of him coaching at ASU.
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http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/01/15/Media/Sports-Media.aspx
The top 100 most viewed TV programs for 2017. 81 were sports broadcasts including 9 of the top 10 (the Oscars were #7).
Breakdown:
* 81 were sports
* 4 award shows (Oscars, Grammys, Golden Globes, Oscars red carpet live – #7, 15, 44, 99)
* 4 holiday shows (3 time windows on New Year’s Rockin’ Eve; Thankgiving Day parade – #17, 62, 78; 23)
* 1 special (Carol Burnett 50th Anniversary special – #95)
* 1 competition show (America’s Got Talent – #83)
* 1 post-Super Bowl premiere (24: Legacy – #59)
* 1 premiere (Young Sheldon – #63)
* 4 NCIS episodes (#73, 87, 89, 97)
* 1 Big Bang Theory episode (#68)
Sports breakdown:
NFL – 64
MLB – 6 of 7 World Series games (#11, 31, 54, 82, 90, 94)
NBA – all 5 NBA Finals games (#20, 42, 48, 51, 56)
MBB – 3 games (NCG – #28, 1 of 2 semifinals – #55, 1 regional final – #93)
CFB – 2 games (NCG – #21, Rose Bowl – #80)
Other – Kentucky Derby (#72)
#1 drew 111M
#2-4 drew from 46-49M
#5-6 drew 37-39M
#7 drew 33M
#8-44 drew 20-29.9M
#45-76 drew 16.2-19.9M
#77-100 drew 15.2-15.9M
Clearly the NFL is king and by a large margin.
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https://sportstvratings.com/episode-44-burke-magnus-executive-vp-of-programming-scheduling-espn-with-matt-sarzyniak/8689/
An interesting 30 minute podcast by Sports TV Ratings with 2 parts:
Part 1 = ESPN’s Burke Magnus (year in review, CFP shift from NYE, empty seats at bowls, …)
Part 2 = Matt Sarzyniak joins in as they discuss scheduling and OTT (CFB and other things)
It was great to talk to ESPN’s Burke Magnus. Two sections to this podcast. The first 15 minutes is a straight one-on-one interview with Burke where we discuss:
– College Football Bowl season recap
– Burke’s thoughts on the move away from New Year’s Eve for the CFP semifinals
– We talked about Burke’s comments a few weeks ago on John Ourand’s podcast where Burke had said that the empty seats at some of the Bowl games wasn’t a problem for ESPN or really any problem at all
– Plans for shoring up ESPN2’s daytime lineup in the wake of moving First Take to ESPN a year ago
Then I brought in Matt Sarzyniak, who spends a lot of time focusing on men’s college football and college basketball schedules for some scheduling related questions that included:
– do they use any historical TV ratings data when making college football game selections?
– How has getting rid of a lot of the exclusivity clauses within TV windows positively affected ESPN’s ability to craft a schedule on a weekly basis?
– Back in the day when ESPN had to program around NASCAR windows, how did it impact scheduling?
– Will there be college sports exclusives in the upcoming ESPN OTT app in the near future?
– Matt noted ACC associate commissioner Michael Strickland’s comments that TV networks looking for particular matchups on particular weekends and asked if any of that goes on with the weeknight matchups.
– What are ESPN plans around shoulder programming for its F1 races
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According to Jon Wilner’s twitter, the P12N is cutting costs by restructuring and eliminating some positions including at least 3 senior-level positions.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22198782/nba-outlines-plan-professional-sports-leagues-pushing-national-legalized-wagering
The NBA has flipped sides and now is promoting a set of national laws to legalize sports gambling. As part of it, the NBA wants a 1% cut of any legal bet made on the NBA.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/ncaa-begins-investigation-michigan-state-larry-nassar-case.html
The NCAA is investigating MSU to see if any rules were broken. NCAA bylaws require schools to protect the health and well-being of student-athletes and athletes from multiple teams at MSU complained about Nassar but nothing ever came of it.
I don’t know that anything major will come out of this but NCAA rules are by far the lesser rules that were broken. Another Title IX investigation might be more appropriate.
https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/sports/college/michigan-state/spartans/2018/01/23/michigan-state-university-joel-ferguson/1058920001/
If nothing else, this trustee needs to be removed from the board.
Ferguson called Simon “the best president we’ve ever had,” said MSU has more things going on than “just this Nassar thing” and laughed at the idea that the NCAA would investigate MSU.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/22211140/michigan-state-sought-end-federal-oversight-delayed-sending-feds-files-larry-nassar-espn
MSU sought late in 2017 to end oversight by the DOE due to mishandling of sexual assault and gender discrimination cases but the feds said no because of how the Nassar scandal was developing.
Michigan State University, under U.S. Department of Education oversight since 2014 because of its mishandling of sexual assault and gender discrimination cases, asked federal officials last fall to end their monitoring of the university because administrators had been acting in “good faith” and had “gone above and beyond” in meeting standards laid out by federal officials, according to documents obtained by Outside the Lines.
The Oct. 17 request was rejected outright by federal officials for several reasons, but in large part because of how the university has handled sexual assault allegations against former MSU athletics physician Larry Nassar. The documents obtained by Outside the Lines show:
* Michigan State administrators in 2014 did not notify federal officials that the university had dual Title IX and campus police investigations of Nassar underway even though federal investigators were on campus that year scrutinizing how MSU dealt with sexual assault allegations.
* MSU administrators still have not provided to federal officials all documents related to the Nassar allegations.
…
Even without knowledge of the Nassar allegations, the Office for Civil Rights investigation into how MSU handled sexual assault and gender discrimination cases ended with findings that MSU had fostered a “sexually hostile environment” on campus. Under terms of a 2015 agreement with the Office for Civil Rights to settle the findings, MSU administrators faced a litany of requirements and continuing federal oversight. One of those requirements mandated that the university provide the Office for Civil Rights notification and documentation of all prior complaints of sexual assault and harassment by a January 2016 deadline.
The records obtained by Outside the Lines show that MSU did not do so until almost a year later. Among the documents not provided by the deadline: reports made against Nassar.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22203758/michigan-state-university-president-lou-anna-simon-announces-resignation
Add in the resignation of MSU’s president not long after the dreaded vote of confidence from the BoT and it looks like maybe MSU is starting to take this seriously.
I want to know why Mark Hollis (MSU’s AD) isn’t in more trouble. Several MSU coaches were allegedly told about Nassar and Nassar worked on multiple MSU athletes. Nassar’s boss quit as Dean in December (his Title IX investigation cleared Nassar in 2014) but it still on the faculty.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/01/25/lou-ann-simon-michigan-state-resignation-perks/1065722001/
It turns out the President Simon has the goldenest of parachutes for a university president.
Simon’s contract has a number of details about what she gets if she resigns. She can choose to return to the faculty, at which point she will get a 12-month research leave at her current salary of $750,000. She then gets her current salary for the next year and 75% of her salary for the following two years. She also gets office space and secretarial support. She also gets the title of “president emeritus.”
Past presidents at the University of Michigan, including Mary Sue Coleman and James Duderstadt, have had office space after they stepped down. Coleman no longer does because she is the president of the Association of American Universities. Duderstadt has a salary because he is now a faculty member.
But Simon’s contract is unique.
“In the 200+ presidential contracts we’ve reviewed, this is the only contract that provides for the president to receive 100% of their last presidential base salary for the first year that they return to the faculty,” James Finkelstein, a professor emeritus at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and the leading researcher of presidential pay, said in an email.
He reviewed Simon’s contract at the request of the Detroit Free Press.
“This means that Dr. Simon will be paid at least $750,000 for her first year returning to the faculty from her research leave. After that, she will be paid 75% of that base salary, or at least $562,500 per year. Dr. Simon’s field is higher education. She received her PhD in education from MSU in 1974.
“So based on this contract, it would appear that Dr. Simon will be paid more than twice the amount of the most highly paid faculty member in the College of Education. In addition, she will be paid more than the most highly paid faculty member in the entire university, C. Konrad Gelbke who makes $433,441. He is one of the world’s leading physicists.”
The contract also spells out a number of lifetime perks Simon and her husband will receive:
• Parking passes for on-campus parking
• Two free tickets to home football games for the Spartan Club suites
• Two free tickets to women’s basketball games
• The option to buy up to four men’s basketball tickets in the same location she currently has seats
• Reduced-price tickets for bowl games and post-season play for football, men’s and women’s basketball and ice hockey
• Parking pass for all home sporting and cultural events
“Other than the granting of emeritus status, we rarely see such benefits in any contracts,” Finkelstein said. “What is extremely unusual about these benefits is that so many of these are related to sporting events.
“In fact, this is the only contract that we’ve seen with these specific types of benefits.
“In addition, this is the only contract we’ve seen that provides lifetime technical computer support for both the president and a spouse/partner. The way this contract reads, this support seems to go beyond what is typically provided to other emeritus faculty in that the Office of the President is required to pay for such support.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22223678/michigan-state-athletic-director-mark-hollis-resigns
And Mark Hollis has just resigned under pressure. Between this horrible Nassar scandal and the football team’s sexual assault scandal recently, I’m amazed he lasted this long.
http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/22214566/pattern-denial-inaction-information-suppression-michigan-state-goes-larry-nassar-case-espn
And OTL has been digging in and highlighting a pattern of denial and information suppression by MSU.
But an Outside the Lines investigation has found a pattern of widespread denial, inaction and information suppression of such allegations by officials ranging from campus police to the Spartan athletic department, whose top leader, Mark Hollis, announced his retirement on Friday. The actions go well beyond the highly publicized case of former MSU athletic physician Larry Nassar.
Over the past three years, MSU has three times fought in court — unsuccessfully — to withhold names of athletes in campus police records. The school has also deleted so much information from some incident reports that they were nearly unreadable. In circumstances in which administrators have commissioned internal examinations to review how they have handled certain sexual violence complaints, officials have been selective in releasing information publicly. In one case, a university-hired outside investigator claimed to have not even generated a written report at the conclusion of his work. And attorneys who have represented accusers and the accused agree on this: University officials have not always been transparent, and often put the school’s reputation above the need to give fair treatment to those reporting sexual violence and to the alleged perpetrators.
Even MSU’s most-recognizable figures, football coach Mark Dantonio and basketball coach Tom Izzo, have had incidents involving their programs, Outside the Lines has found.
Since Dantonio’s tenure began in 2007, at least 16 MSU football players have been accused of sexual assault or violence against women, according to interviews and public records obtained by Outside the Lines. Even more, Dantonio was said to be involved in handling the discipline in at least one of the cases several years ago. As recently as June, Dantonio faced a crowd of reporters who were asking questions about four of his football players who had been accused of sexual assault. Six questions in, a reporter asked Dantonio how he had handled such allegations previously.
“This is new ground for us,” Dantonio answered. “We’ve been here 11 years — it has not happened previously.”
This story is going to last for a long time at MSU much like Baylor or PSU.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/01/28/mark-emmert-ncaa-michigan-state-investigation-larry-nassar
The NCAA president, Mark Emmert, was alerted to Michigan St.’s issues seven years ago and the NCAA did not act.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22212592/atlanta-falcons-drop-prices-make-more-money-mercedes-benz-stadium-concessions
I doubt other teams will follow suit, but the Falcons slashed concession prices this year yet ended up making more money on total sales. Granted the new stadium was part of it, but there might be a lesson to be learned here anyway.
Steve Cannon, CEO of the AMB Group, Blank’s holding company, told ESPN that although food and beverage prices were 50 percent lower in its new Mercedes-Benz Stadium than the prices in the Georgia Dome the previous year, fans spent 16 percent more.
“There’s a huge value in delighting your fan base, to make them as happy as they could possibly be,” Cannon said. “We started with one of the biggest pain points and it paid off.”
To coincide with opening Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the AMB Group announced their “Fan First Menu Pricing.” Unlimited Coca-Cola would cost $2, so too would a bottle of water, popcorn, a hot dog and a pretzel. For $3 each, fans could get waffle fries, a slice of pizza, or nachos with cheese. Those prices included tax. No change would help serve to speed the ease of transactions.
The new stadium also had 65 percent more points of sale and 1,264 more beer taps than the Georgia Dome did as well as self-serve soda machines.
Cannon said Thursday that the Falcons recently finished No. 1 among all NFL teams, in an internal survey conducted by the league, in food quality, price to value ratio, speed of service and variety.
Not only did the team make more money by lowering the prices, but the move also led to a domino effect for the entire game-day experience.
Because fans weren’t deterred by the concession prices, Cannon said that, on average, 6,000 more fans walked through the gates two hours before the game, which not only meant more time to sell food and drink, but also helped to ease wait times at the games to the goal of no more than five minutes.
…
Merchandise sales were also up 88 percent.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22213241/vince-mcmahon-gimmick-free-xfl-return-2020
Vince McMahon is bringing back the XFL in 2020, this time without all the gimmicks. He will be the sole funding source (~$100M to start).
Basic features:
8 teams
40 man rosters
10-game schedule
Game length of 2 hours
No criminal records allowed
No social issues addressed on the field in any way
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http://www.espn.com/blog/ncfrecruiting/on-the-trail/insider/post/_/id/81663/the-big-12-back-to-dominating-recruiting-in-the-state-of-texas
The B12 is back to dominating recruiting in TX.
That all began to change in 2011. Texas A&M bolted the Big 12 for the SEC the following season, opening the floodgates to the east. And as SEC powers made inroads, Big 12 recruiting began to crater.
From 2006-11, the Big 12 had signed 73 percent of the national top 150 recruits that came from the state of Texas. In the six years that followed, the number plummeted to 43 percent.
But there are signs to suggest those trendlines have already started to reverse. And that the Big 12 is on its way back to dominating recruiting in the Lone Star State once again.
Look no further than last month.
During the inaugural early signing period, the Big 12 inked 15 of the 24 Texas players ranked in the top 150 nationally. With five more such unsigned players either committed to or strongly considering Big 12 schools, that number could balloon even more next month.
“It’s pretty simple: The shiny new product of the SEC wore off,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy told ESPN.com while likening SEC recruiting in Texas to the recent fad of the hoverboard. “Everybody rode them around for two or three years — now you don’t see them anymore. The newness has worn off.”
The evidence backs that up.
The SEC’s arrival into Texas recruiting began to culminate in 2014 and 2015, when the conference bagged the state’s top three players in back-to-back years. In 2016, the SEC clobbered the Big 12 in Texas, landing eight of the top 15 players in the Lone Star State, even with only one signing coming from the Aggies.
But for 2018, outside of A&M’s two signees, the SEC so far has signed only one top 30 Texas player in Alabama-bound defensive tackle Bobby Brown.
As a result, Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU all have top 20 classes with Texas-laded groups. Oklahoma State is right behind them having signed the top-rated quarterback from the Lone Star State in Denton, Texas, product Spencer Sanders.
Gundy said his staff has noticed the interest level in SEC schools drop even more dramatically for Texas recruits in the 2019 and 2020 classes, as well.
The B12 needs this trend to continue.
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Stoops and Mack got lazy. Strong has always been a lazy recruiter. It was a blip. When you look at the top 100, 2017 (last year) was a weak recruiting year for the Big 12 with the Pac 12 and Big 10 sticking their fingers in more than the SEC, but other than that, the top 100 hasn’t looked much different. And a couple of those SEC blue chips mentioned in the article were brothers committed to Texas that switched to LSU after Mack got fired.
Texas blue chips were historically going to Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M or Arkansas with LSU grabbing one every now and then. When Arkansas left the SWC, they left Texas recruiting success behind. With Texas and Oklahoma coaching issues, naturally, the Big 12 didn’t get as many.
For this year according to 247, the top 10 are 7 UT, 1 A&M, 2 uncommitted (A&M has good chance on those 2). Top 25 10 UT, 3 A&M, 2 OU, 2 TCU, 2 Alabama, 1 Okie St., 1 LSU, rest uncommitted. So only Alabama, the premier program in the country now, has any players in the top 25 other than schools who traditionally recruit well in Texas.
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http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_23b62d1e-012c-11e8-a23e-c76cb0b5a744.html
The governor of LA thinks coaches’ salaries in CBF are out of control and that something needs to be done about it.
“I am concerned. I’m not as concerned as I would be if those were tax dollars being spent,” Edwards said. “I do think that there has to be some look nationally at some sort of salary caps for the organizations. This is an arms race, and it’s gotten out of control. Some of the salaries and buyouts are obscene, and they can create all sorts of problems.
“Everybody at this table knows that those are not taxpayer dollars, but the general public doesn’t necessarily know that,” Edwards continued, referencing the Advocate reporters and editors in the meeting. “And what about those faculty members at LSU and elsewhere who haven’t had a raise of any size in many, many years and they’re seeing what’s happening in athletics?”
…
LSU is one of the few college athletic programs that isn’t subsidized by the state, but athletics staff are still classified as state employees.
Six of the top seven highest-paid state employees last year were in athletics, according to documents obtained by The Advocate, including athletic director Joe Alleva, Aranda, Canada, former offensive line coach Jeff Grimes, head coach Ed Orgeron and running backs coach Tommie Robinson.
…
“I saw the other day where a statement was made — can’t remember who it was, but I think it was someone from the NCAA — that it may be time to look at imposing limits on what the entire staff can be paid. Otherwise, you’re going to have the haves and have-nots and so forth. It’s a real problem,” Edwards said. “I don’t blame any individual for getting what the market will bear. I just don’t think the market should bear that.”
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/01/25/illinois-representative-age-limit-tackle-football-brain-injury-concerns/1067652001/
A state representative from Illinois introduced a bill to ban tackle football below age 12. She’s not the first or only politician to introduce such a bill, but hers is named after Dave Duerson and is supported by his family.
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Michigan State’s sexual assault problem spreads to football, basketball. https://nypost.com/2018/01/26/michigan-states-sexual-assault-problem-isnt-limited-to-nassar/
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22228647/whistleblower-told-ncaa-president-mark-emmert-michigan-state-sexual-assault-incidents-2010-meeting
And now there are claims that Mark Emmert was told about a bunch of alleged sexual assault by MSU athletes back in 2010.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/01/27/special-prosecutor-probe-systemic-issues-sexual-misconduct-michigan-state/1072105001/
The MI AG has appointed a special prosecutor to look into the issues at MSU.
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According to Outside the Lines, the problems at Michigan State go well beyond gymnastics. It sounds as though both football coach Mark Dantonio and basketball coach Tom Izzo could be facing serious problems. http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/22214566/pattern-denial-inaction-information-suppression-michigan-state-goes-larry-nassar-case-espn
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Oops did not realize same story linked above. Thought this was today’s update
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The latest thing I’ve heard has been the special prosecutor being named.
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Some wrestling news.
https://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2018/January/28/Snyder-and-Taylor-win-golds-at-Yarygin-Grand-Prix
OSU’s Kyle Snyder won the gold medal at 97kg at the Yarygin Grand Prix, considered the toughest wrestling meet in the world (harder than Olympics or World Championships because no limit on the number of wrestlers from one country – just all the top people in the world). He also won it last year. He became the first American man to ever win it twice. He also won the award for being the top non-Russian in the meet.
Overall the USA won 3 golds (2 men, 1 woman). The woman became the first American to win the Yarygin in back to back years (she did it a day before Snyder). The US also won 3 silvers (2 men, 1 woman) and 1 bronze (man) for 7 total medals.
https://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2018/January/28/Penn-State-beats-Rutgers-as-Nolf-is-injured
In bad news, one of PSU’s #1 ranked wrestlers (Jason Nolf @ 157lbs) hurt his knee today against Rutgers. It’s unknown how severe the injury is, but he had to be carried off. That could be huge for PSU with dual meets against OSU this Saturday and Iowa next Saturday. If it isn’t torn, maybe he can come back for the NCAA tournament. If not, this would be a blow to PSU’s chances to repeat as national champions.
In other B10 news, #7 Michigan upset #4 Iowa while #2 OSU cruised past #24 PU. PSU has already beaten Michigan while OSU has beaten Iowa. PSU faces OSU then Iowa while OSU faces PSU then Michigan. OSU @ PSU will likely decide the B10 title.
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Update:
Jason Nolf hopes to return for the postseason (B10 tournament then NCAA tournament). He will miss PSU’s last 3 dual meets (OSU, Iowa, Buffalo). That gives him 5 weeks to get better.
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http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22255143/cleveland-indians-removing-chief-wahoo-logo-uniforms
Starting in 2019 the Cleveland Indians will no longer wear the Chief Wahoo logo on their uniforms in any way. It’s already been removed from any signage in the stadium. They’ll still sell some merchandise with it since that is a requirement for maintaining their trademark.
It’s progress, at least.
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For those of you who do not agree that ESPN has gotten too politically correct, how about this. ESPN “First Take” host Max Kellerman has determined that Notre Dame should change its mascot, apparently just in case some Irish American somewhere objects to the “Fighting Irish”. He also does not believe surveys showing that 90% of Indians do not object to the name Redskins. I have been involved with the representation of Indian Tribes since the late 1980s. I never met one tribal leader who had a problem with the team name Redskins. Generally, they viewed it as a compliment. Anyway here is the article: http://freebeacon.com/culture/espn-host-notre-dames-fighting-irish-mascot-offensive-needs-change/
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I was wondering when someone would stand up for those poor maligned Irish!!!
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I think Chief Wahoo is very much more disrespectful than Redskins. In fact, I can see that the Indians logo is offensive where the Washington logo is respectful.
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Chief Wahoo is about as offensive as logos get. It’s needed to go for a long time.
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B.S.!!!
Redskin = bloody scalp.
Payments were made for proof of kills – bloody (red) scalps (skins).
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It’s your etymology that’s B.S. Redskin refers to Indian skin color, which is reddish brown. Scalps are not redskins.
Other than that, Washington should droop the name.
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While skin color can be associated with it, the term primarily refers to the killing and bounty collecting of native Americans.
https://indiancountrymedianetwork.com/culture/sports/seeking-250-reward-settlers-hunted-for-redskin-scalps-during-extermination-effort/
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Redskins needs to go. Chief Wahoo, yawn. No need to offend any part of your fan base with a Chief Wahoo, but Redskins does cross a line.
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I didn’t watch this segment in particular nor do I watch ESPN at all, so I’m going off your comment and the linked article.
Things I’ll point out in advance:
1. “Politically correct” is a loaded phrase that presumes the behavior being described is an incorrect reaction to something. Many rational people disagree about what is PC and what isn’t.
2. These things also change with time. All sorts of racial/ethnic/religious epithets used to be considered just fine, at least among WASPs. Is it PC that society now condemns most of those terms?
3. As with all things, one can go too far in trying to protect the feelings of others. But should we err on the side of protecting them or on the side of offending them? That is the question society is facing.
Now to your comment:
1. I don’t know how many, if any, Irish or Irish-American have felt offended by ND’s mascot. I don’t get the sense it’s a problem and the only reason I could see for asking ND to change would be the NCAA wanting a consistent policy regarding team nicknames/mascots not representing ethnic groups (thus avoiding offending groups while also not cherrypicking which groups to protect). If all Native American team names have to go, it would be more consistent to also not allow European-American names.
2. Would people feel differently if ND was just choosing this name now? I think the history and tradition of the name are part of why it’s accepted. The Irish used to be an oppressed minority a long time ago and ND uses a stereotype of the Irish as its nickname and mascot. Would we accept a school doing that now? Would anyone tolerate a new school in CA or TX that was the
“Dirty Mexicans”? Would we accept ND if they used any other stereotype of the Irish than “Fighting”? Would the ND “Drunken Irish” be treated the same way? Should it?
Similarly, how would the NFL react if it was an expansion team today looking to call themselves the Redskins or something similar (pick a Hispanic or Black nickname)?
3. As to the survey, it’s generally difficult to reconcile anecdotal evidence they have firsthand versus broader evidence from a third party. People tend to favor their personal experience. I’ve read complaints from some Native Americans about the Redskins’ name. I’d want to carefully examine any survey that finds 90% of people feel one way about almost anything. How was it phrased, what other questions were asked, exactly who was asked, etc. It’s easy to screw up a survey/poll as any political scientist can tell you.
My opinions:
1. I have no problem with ND’s team name and mascot. I don’t see a need to change it. I haven’t seen any evidence that any significant number of people are upset by it, but if such evidence exists then I’m willing to listen and potentially change my mind.
2. I would also listen to an argument that the NCAA wants to uniformly ban team names based on ethnic groups. I’d want to see evidence to justify the rule (some groups have been offended by older nicknames or mascots), but I could see the logic in applying to everyone to avoid the appearance of bias from the NCAA.
3. I think the name Redskins sounds racist and their owner at the time was a racist, but it doesn’t offend me. The history of the name also shows it might not be as bad as it sounds.
Brief history: They started as the Boston Braves because they played at Braves Field. They changed to Redskins when they left for Fenway Park. It let them keep their logo and have a name similar to the Red Sox. Braves Field was named after the baseball Boston Braves. The team picked up that name because the owner came from Tammany Hall and Tammany Hall used a lot of native American names and symbols. Before that the team had several names, most recently the Doves because of their white uniforms.
I don’t consider team names and mascots a major problem in society, especially when it’s a private school or business that people don’t have to support. If a vast majority of native Americans truly aren’t bothered by it, why should I care? I do think it’s a little different for a state school. If they’re going to do it, I think the relevant group needs to approve of the use of their name (like the Seminoles do for FSU). No clearly stereotypical logos (like Chief Wahoo) should be approved for a state school. Any human mascot should be accurate in appearance and performance. I think it would be preferable to actually use someone of that ethnicity so it doesn’t look like a stereotype, but it shouldn’t be mandatory.
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I will not reply in detail. What would you call eliminating the name “Fighting Irish”? Does anyone really know any Notre Dame fans who would even consider changing that name? Forget significant numbers. Have you ever seen any issue with the name? Personally I think that ND should be forced to give up the name. I do not find it offensive in any way, but would enjoy the pain suffered by ND fans. Same with Redskins. They should be forced to change that name and so should the Eagles and Cowboys (says the Giants fan).
Only a nut job on ESPN could be that politically correct. And that is exactly what it is. It is not right to use a name that might offend anyone. What would you call it?
As far as some type of NCAA rule, let’s not forget the FSU Seminoles. When there were complaints about this, the group that was most upset was not FSU fans, it was the Seminole Tribe, which supplies the gear used by Chief Osceola, the FSU mascot. (Osceola was the great Seminole Chief, who was the leader during the Second Seminole War, when he refused to agree to have his Tribe move west. The Seminoles have never been defeated in any war). (On a related note, the name Osceola is translated as “Billie” in English, which is why so many Seminole Indians are named “Billie”:)
The Seminole Tribe views it as a great honor to have the FSU mascots named after their Chief. I dare the NCAA to try and stop usage of that name.
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Jersey Bernie,
“What would you call eliminating the name “Fighting Irish”?”
Unnecessary.
“Does anyone really know any Notre Dame fans who would even consider changing that name?”
The fans don’t matter. Of course they are okay with it. The issue would be if outsiders had a problem with it.
“Forget significant numbers. Have you ever seen any issue with the name?”
I haven’t and I said exactly that above. I’ve also never looked for any evidence of it so it remains possible there are some people that object to it.
“Personally I think that ND should be forced to give up the name. I do not find it offensive in any way, but would enjoy the pain suffered by ND fans.”
I’m all for hurting ND and their fans.
“Only a nut job on ESPN could be that politically correct. And that is exactly what it is. It is not right to use a name that might offend anyone. What would you call it?”
From the article, the talking head made 2 separate points:
1. He continued to argue that ethnic mascots should be changed “even if it is a minority of the group that is offended,” and said that rule also should apply to the University of Notre Dame, whose athletic teams are known as the Fighting Irish.
…
“Pernicious, negative stereotypes of marginalized people that offend even some among them should be changed. It’s not that hard,” Kellerman concluded.
This is a lawyerly approach saying that ND shouldn’t be exempt from this sort of rule if other schools have to follow it.
2. “Many Irish-Americans are not offended, but many are. And should that also change? The answer is yes, unequivocally yes,” Kellerman said, as his guest Will Cain groaned and facepalmed.
Here he claims evidence of upset people. I’d need to see this evidence to support this point. But for his job he travels to places I don’t go and sees a different group of people than I normally do (boxing fans), so he may at least have anecdotal evidence of this. I don’t have that evidence.
“As far as some type of NCAA rule, let’s not forget the FSU Seminoles. When there were complaints about this, the group that was most upset was not FSU fans, it was the Seminole Tribe, which supplies the gear used by Chief Osceola, the FSU mascot. (Osceola was the great Seminole Chief, who was the leader during the Second Seminole War, when he refused to agree to have his Tribe move west. The Seminoles have never been defeated in any war). (On a related note, the name Osceola is translated as “Billie” in English, which is why so many Seminole Indians are named “Billie”:)
The Seminole Tribe views it as a great honor to have the FSU mascots named after their Chief. I dare the NCAA to try and stop usage of that name.”
And the NCAA hasn’t tried to change it. All they asked was for FSU to keep having the Seminoles verify that they support it. The ones that have been changed were either generic (“Indians”, “Redskins”, “Redmen”, “Braves”) or weren’t as well supported by the tribes (“Fighting Sioux”). Teams like the Seminoles, Utes and Chippewas all showed native support and were left alone. And that’s a reasonable exemption process.
And the NCAA never actually has forced a change, they just won’t let the teams were those names or logos in the postseason nor can they host postseason games.
This all comes down to how big of an issue you consider an “offensive” team name to be. I don’t think they have a place at an institution of higher learning. Pick a damn animal and move on. There is sociological evidence to show that stereotypes can have lasting negative effects for a group of people. The real question is then which names or logos cross the line into being offensive. I don’t automatically have an issue with a native American name, but the American history tied to the groups isn’t very positive. Considering how few members of those tribes are attending these schools, is it really the best choice?
I don’t think the “it’s always been that way” argument is very strong, but I understand the desire to keep tradition. I think many of the issues can be fixed by eliminating bad logos (Chief Wahoo being an extreme example) and not having students dressed up in inauthentic gear and doing fake dances. Many of the team names aren’t offensive themselves.
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Not being allowed to use a mascot in any post season event is close enough to an attempted ban.
http://www.sptimes.com/2005/08/06/Sports/NCAA_mascot_rule_stin.shtml
The problem here is that if three Irish Americans at some meeting decide that the name Fighting Irish is offensive, then guys like Kellerman would decide that the name should be changed. Next it would become an internet deluge (which can be done by fake twitter bots) and suddenly it is a non-issue.
Why should teams and schools which love their mascots need to change because a few people are upset? Grow up and do not impose your view on others. If a large number of people in a group are truly offended, then there may be an issue. Not because ESPN and Kellerman want to create issues.
Why should FSU or other schools in similar positions have to compromise? Why is it the problem of the NCAA to even look at, absent complaints by the Seminoles, etc. Call it what you want, I call it political correctness run amok.
Offhand, I can not think of any Indian Tribes which have objected to having teams named after them. The term Fighting Sioux name is a bit different. It is not just the name of a tribe, but could construed as going further – like Fighting Irish. Somehow I am just guessing that if a team with a Fighting Sioux mascot had won national championships, the reaction may be different.
The Seminoles are more than proud of their connection to FSU. Ask members of the Tribe – not people like Kellerman.
The Sioux really have serious issues, other than mascots. Some of the poorest counties in the US are on Sioux Reservations. Maybe the NCAA or someone could help deal with that and leave the mascots alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reservation_poverty
That is what happened with the Redskins name. One Tribe in upstate NY decided that it would start a movement. It has nothing to do with what most Indians want. (And by the way, the people that I know, including the Chiefs of two major tribes and chief of a couple of smaller ones, say that they are Indians, not Native Americans).
The Chief Wahoo mascot is pretty weird.
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https://scholastic.nd.edu/issues/is-fighting-irish-offensive/
This article from the ND student magazine seems relevant.
Ethnic team name controversies are nothing new. People have been protesting since the 1940s, when the National Congress of American Indians began a campaign against tribal mascots. In that 70-plus-year span, the “Fighting Irish” of the University of Notre Dame have stayed out of the fight.
“We have not gotten information from any group that represents Irish or (anyone of) Irish ancestry … that they believe that image is hostile and/or abusive,” Charlotte Westerhaus, NCAA vice president for diversity and inclusion, says.
What makes the Fighting Irish different? Why do we cringe at old ads for Aunt Jemima pancakes but smile at the Lucky Charms leprechaun? Many would say — like Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart defined pornography — an offensive nickname is hard to define, but “I know it when I see it.”
In August of 2005, the NCAA ruled that it would not tolerate “hostile and abusive racial/ethnic/national origin mascots, nicknames or imagery” at any of its postseason tournaments. A team with “fighting” in its nickname seems to fit the “hostile” part of the definition, and “Irish” is certainly a “national origin,” so its only redemption may be that no one has complained. But why is that?
So the NCAA hasn’t received any complaints (as I think we all expected). This pokes yet another hole in that talking head’s theory.
Next the article looks at specific arguments for why “Fighting Irish” doesn’t offend.
It’s a country, not a racial slur. Weak argument.
This distinguishes between the Fighting Irish and the Washington Redskins. “Redskin” is considered a racially offensive description of Native Americans based on their perceived skin color, whereas Irish is an impartial description of a person from Ireland.
This is where the University of North Dakota “Fighting Sioux” get in trouble. “Sioux” is a French interpretation of an Ojibwa name for snake or devil, and many Natives find this term offensive. The nickname was dropped in 2012.
Just because Irish is an unbiased descriptor, it doesn’t get off scot-free. Similar team names sound odd; imagine an American team called the “Fighting Chinese” or a school in Turkey called the “Fighting Americans.” Something’s off.
The mascot is a mythical creature, not a real person. Eh.
A 2005 American Psychological Association study showed Native American children’s self esteem takes a beating if they grow up around tribal mascots. Irish kids don’t have this problem because a leprechaun is an imaginary creature, not meant to impersonate them, right?
Maybe not.
A caricature poses its own problems. Notre Dame students are advised not to wear images of Notre Dame’s tiny but hyper-aggressive leprechaun, the words “Fighting Irish” or Kelly green when studying abroad in Northern Ireland because Northern Irish citizens may take it as a political statement. The area is peaceful now, but just decades ago it was locked in a violent conflict that killed over 3,600 people.
In Northern Ireland, they see a “Fighting” leprechaun, fists raised and teeth gritted, in a darker light. In Indiana, we don’t notice the same bleak undertones.
School traditions reference a culture, not a religion. Better.
ND students dance a messy jig in the stands on game day, an imitation of Irish dance. Many would see that as abusing the nationality.
But a jig is culture, not religion. To compare it to Native American teams, feather headdresses are part of a religion, but shamrocks and dancing are not.
If our mascot were a priest or nun, for example, that would be cause for controversy. Notre Dame banned Stanford from its campus in 1991 when their drum major dressed as a nun and conducted the band with a wooden cross instead of a baton.
It’s a prideful self-identifier. Spot on.
The NCAA grants waivers to schools, like the Florida State Seminoles, with mascot names that refer to a particular Native nation as long as the school gets permission from that nation and works continuously with them, making sure the images honor the tribe. The idea is that if the ethnic nickname comes from the group itself, it implies pride, not prejudice.
Notre Dame is a Catholic university with renowned Irish Studies programs. Class rosters are loaded with “Mc-” and “O-” names. Irish ties are strong enough that it’s just an honest way to identify.
And this self-branding creates a positive sentiment.
The Irish have overcome a lot. When they first came to America, discrimination against them was normal, even legally codified.
UND.com says the school’s team name used to be the “Catholics.” The nickname “Fighting Irish” likely began as a taunting expression, but the school took ownership, in the same way the LGBTQ community has taken the word “queer,” previously a slur, and turned it into a rallying cry.
People wind themselves up in logical curlicues to defend their team’s ethnic nickname, citing reasons like, “I grew up with it” or “we mean well,” and many fans cite Notre Dame as a logical inconsistency within NCAA rules.
But even more important than the logic is the name’s reception. In the end, the most important factor is how the name makes that group feel.
So far, no one has complained. Of course, there was a time when no one had formally objected to the Washington Redskins. Perceptions change.
But I would be surprised to see a formal objection to the “Fighting Irish” any time soon. Unlike some team names, which reduce ethnic groups to a trite, irrelevant tagline, our nickname’s sentiment is deep, complex, even inspiring.
In a 1953 essay, Charles M. Carey C.S.C. said it better than I could. He writes, “Fighting Irish” is “a badge of honor — a symbol of fidelity and courage to everyone who suffers from discrimination; to everyone who has an uphill fight for the elemental decencies, and the basic Christian principles woven into the texture of our nation.”
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https://www.irishcentral.com/opinion/others/outdated-and-offensive-the-redskins-and-notre-dames-leprechaun-229519311-238259701
Here is someone who thinks ND should change, so at least 1 person feels this way.
A national move to correct racial and ethnic stereotypes in professional and college sports is reaching a fever pitch. One ever increasing controversy involves Notre Dame and their football program which has long employed the term “Fighting Irish” coupling it with the use of a logo which depicts a tiny leprechaun who darns a mean and angry face, with raised fists and legs spread far apart in a ready to fight stance.
Many, who know the history of the Irish in America, understand that severe discrimination existed against them in this country and abroad for years, especially in the 19th century where Irish immigrants were forced into abject poverty as a result of employment and housing prejudice. The Irish have long been portrayed as unintelligent, drunken brawlers and many feel that the Fighting Irish logo only helps to foster this stereotypical image.
“I think you are going to see a movement to replace that silly looking leprechaun with something more respectable,” said Sean K. an Irish American College student, who currently attends NYU.
“That image of Irish Americans is not only far outdated but also offensive,” remarked the student.
One Washington Redskin fan, Patrick O, a school teacher of Irish decent teacher from Brooklyn, NY, went even further in his criticism of sports teams using stereotypes to depict team images by saying: “I think we are on the precipice for ridding sports teams of these horrible images once and for all. People are sick of seeing teams exploit Native Americans by using names such as chiefs, warriors, braves and Indians. I think you will see all of them begin to disappear over the next few years.
The teacher went on to say: “I think colleges are far ahead of professional teams in this regard. That reflects the changing face of America and how the youth see things more clearly. Notre Dame knows that stereotyping is wrong in all its forms. As a leading educational institution in this nation, it must respond to those of us who demand an end to faulty and hurtful depictions of racial, ethnic or religious stereotypes. The college will either have to dump the leprechaun or face the shaming process which will include on site protests in the near future. I have to go through that now with my own team – the Redskins.”
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Jersey Bernie,
“Not being allowed to use a mascot in any post season event is close enough to an attempted ban.”
Not to me. The regular season is much longer and what the fans see the most and the rule never impacted I-A football, the single most visible college sport.
“The problem here is that if three Irish Americans at some meeting decide that the name Fighting Irish is offensive, then guys like Kellerman would decide that the name should be changed.”
He has the right to complain about it just like we have the right to mock him for it. As long as he honestly feels that way, it doesn’t really bother me. If he’s faking it just for clickbait or trolling, that’s annoying.
While the grassroots approach can and has been abused, it’s also driven several important societal changes.
“Why should teams and schools which love their mascots need to change because a few people are upset?”
How many is “a few”? How offensive is that mascot? At what point do you draw the line?
“Grow up and do not impose your view on others.”
So the other side gets to impose their view on others instead? Isn’t that just tyranny of the majority? That path led to all sorts of bad things in the past (Jim Crow laws, blue laws, bigotry).
“If a large number of people in a group are truly offended, then there may be an issue.”
How would we ever know if you silence the first few to speak up?
“Not because ESPN and Kellerman want to create issues.”
ESPN has zero interest in this argument outside of how it impacts their ratings. And I don’t see anybody taking Kellerman or his position very seriously.
“Why should FSU or other schools in similar positions have to compromise?”
Because they are part of a larger society. All sorts of niche illegal activities use this same argument (bigamy, NAMBLA, etc) to say they should be free to do what they want.
“Why is it the problem of the NCAA to even look at, absent complaints by the Seminoles, etc.”
Because the NCAA got complaints from native American groups about these types of names and mascots. And the NCAA created exemptions for tribe-specific names as long as the tribe in question supported it. FSU hasn’t had to change a thing.
“Call it what you want, I call it political correctness run amok.”
Because you disagree with it. If it was supporting something you cared about, you’d probably give it a different name (“common decency”, “civility”, etc). I’ve heard people call #MeToo a bunch of PC nonsense. People used to call it PC when they were told to stop using racial slurs. Sometimes the people complaining are actually correct, not just PC.
“Offhand, I can not think of any Indian Tribes which have objected to having teams named after them. The term Fighting Sioux name is a bit different. It is not just the name of a tribe, but could construed as going further – like Fighting Irish. Somehow I am just guessing that if a team with a Fighting Sioux mascot had won national championships, the reaction may be different.”
Only 1 of 2 major Sioux tribes voted to support the team name when asked.
“The Seminoles are more than proud of their connection to FSU. Ask members of the Tribe – not people like Kellerman.”
The NCAA did ask, and they listened.
“The Sioux really have serious issues, other than mascots.”
Many tribes have similar issues in the US. It’s one of the reasons some people object to the names. Especially when the school is located in a place where that tribe was killed off or driven out to distant reservations. It’s not like the Illini live in Illinois anymore, for example, so how exactly are you honoring them? Maybe give them back some land in IL first.
“Maybe the NCAA or someone could help deal with that and leave the mascots alone.”
Is there some reason they shouldn’t work on both problems? Mascots are a smaller problem but much easier to fix.
“That is what happened with the Redskins name. One Tribe in upstate NY decided that it would start a movement. It has nothing to do with what most Indians want.”
How many of them need to be upset for it to count? 10%? 25%? 50.1%? 75%?
“(And by the way, the people that I know, including the Chiefs of two major tribes and chief of a couple of smaller ones, say that they are Indians, not Native Americans).”
I’ve spent too long in engineering to use it that way anymore. Indians are from India. It’s for clarity, not PC reasons.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22259284/los-angeles-coliseum-sells-naming-rights-united-airlines
USC has sold the naming rights to the LA Coliseum to United Airlines for $69M over 16 years. The money will help fund the $270M renovation being done that will reduce capacity to 78,000 while adding seat comfort and luxury boxes among other improvements.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22273473/fox-broadcast-thursday-night-football-next-five-seasons
NFL’s Thursday night football has a new home. FOX is paying the NFL $60 million per game starting next season through 2022. FOX will broadcast 11 games per season between Week 4 and Week 15 (not including Thanksgiving night) for more than $660 million per year.
CBS paid $37.5 million per year for eight games during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. NBC joined CBS to broadcast five games each over the 2016 and 2017 seasons at a cost of $45 million each.
FOX currently pays $1.1 billion per year to broadcast Sunday NFC games through the 2022 season.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22274329/students-others-vent-frustrations-michigan-state-interim-president-choice
MSU’s BoT appointed former governor John Engler as interim president after almost zero consideration of candidates. The students and the faculty are upset. Is a politician with higher ed experience the right choice even for an interim position?
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https://www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/local/capitol/2018/01/31/engler-denies-conflict-bill-schuettes-investigating-me-crying-out-loud/1083065001/
Here’s more on why some are concerned about Engler and the AG.
* Schuette, the AG directing the investigation, ran the Dept of Agriculture when Engler was governor.
* Schuette is now running for governor.
* Engler has endorsed Schuette.
* Mark Dantonio wrote the forward to Schuette’s recent book.
* Former governor Jim Blanchard was named to a senior advisor role dealing with government relations and legal affairs
How many connections do 2 former governors have to people in power in the state of Michigan? How many favors are they owed? How many levers do they have to help control the investigation into MSU and minimize the damage? It’s the potential for impropriety that is worrisome.
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How many former governors DON’T have lots of connections?
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Which is exactly why they shouldn’t be put into positions like this. If you want independent work and what’s truly best for MSU and the people of MI, you shouldn’t appoint politicians to positions of power.
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RIP, Oscar Gamble.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/oscar-gamble-dead-68-white-sox-cubs-yankees/
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/proposal-to-let-athletes-transfer-instantly-after-a-coaching-change-picks-up-steam/
A proposed new set of transfer rules for college sports is gaining a lot of steam.
Athletes would be allowed to transfer schools without restriction if their coach were fired or left for another job as part of sweeping proposal that is making its way through Division I, CBS Sports has learned. However, athletes would not be permitted to follow the departing coach to their new program.
The proposal, which originated from the Big 12, would also allow athletes to transfer without sitting out a season (as currently mandated by NCAA rules) in the event a postseason ban is handed down by the NCAA as punishment to their program.
The traditional academic “year in residence” for transfers in all other situations would still be in place and extended to every sport. Presently, that is only a requirement in five NCAA sports.
…
Pollard admitted adjustments would have to be made in football recruiting limitations (25 scholarships per year) if a school lost transfers in any of the above scenarios.
Also, the subsequent impact on a departure to a school’s Academic Progress Rate would have to be considered. Mass transfers could potentially put a program’s postseason eligibility at risk.
Football and basketball coaches are currently concerned about possible “free agency,” allowing athletes across the board to transfer without any restriction for any reason.
Men’s basketball is arguably in crisis with a current transfer rate of 40 percent.
“It’s a broken sport,” a current Pac-12 AD told CBS Sports.
The devil is always in the details, but the basic concepts seem reasonable. How they deal with the recruiting limit in football is important, especially for when a coach leaves for another job. I have no sympathy if the school is under sanctions and loses players. The time it takes to get back to a full 85 man roster is part of the penalty.
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The P12 is considering moving to a 20-game MBB schedule. The B10 will move to 20 next season. The ACC will move to 20 in 2019-20 (that’s the soonest the P12 could make the move).
Jon Wilner looks at the pros and cons of the move (he favors it).
The move from 18 to 20 without expanding the overall schedule — that’s an NCAA issue — would force teams to reduce by two the number of non-conference games.
In many cases, that would be a net positive for the budgets.
The travel expenses incurred by playing the additional road game would be offset by a reduction in the number of so-called guarantee games, the home dates against teams from the Big West or Big Sky or WAC or Summit that can run into the low six figures.
That said, travel would increase: A home non-conference game would be replaced by a one-off roadtrip: Colorado would play in Eugene but not Corvallis, for example; Washington would play in Tempe but not Tucson.
Beyond the travel, there’s another downside to expanding the conference schedule: More losses.
…
Adding the weekend of conference play in December would significantly increase the visibility of Pac-12 basketball throughout the conference footprint during a time usually reserved for wondering why there are so many bowl games.
ESPN and Fox would appreciate the upgraded inventory; the Pac-12 Networks would undoubtedly benefit.
Ticket sales and gate receipts would improve, as well: Imagine Oregon State swapping Eastern Kentucky for Arizona or UCLA on the December home schedule.
And based on the feedback Zaninovich has received, coaches see a competitive benefit:
Play two conference games early, get a feel for strengths and weaknesses, then spend the rest of December fine-tuning for the start of the round-robin schedule.
What’s more, the expanded round-robin schedule would reduce the misses — there would be much less chance of the Arizona schools not playing in Los Angeles, which is the unfortunate case this season.
There’s one other component to the issue, of course:
The impact on resumes, power ratings, Selection Sunday success and NCAA tournament revenue.
Zaninovich, who has served on the selection committee, believes the overall impact of the expanded conference schedule would closer to neutral than definitively positive or negative.
…
Were the Pac-12 to remove two non-conference games from each team’s ledger, the pressure to succeed in the remaining 10 would increase markedly.
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http://www.espn.com/olympics/gymnastics/story/_/id/22286229/lawyer-shannon-smith-doubts-larry-nassar-assaulted-all-accusers
Larry Nassar’s lawyer really should have kept her mouth shut. Even if she thinks this, she really shouldn’t have said it. She’s calling alleged victims liars.
The defense attorney for convicted sexual predator Larry Nassar said she does not believe her client was capable of sexually assaulting the number of women who have accused him of doing so.
In an interview with WWJ Newsradio on Thursday morning, Shannon Smith said “there is a huge part of me that does not believe that every one of those girls was victimized by him.
“I believe that what happened, while there may be some that were victimized — and certainly [as] a part of the plea agreement — there are others who have come to believe they were victimized because of the way the case spun, in a way, out of control.”
Smith clarified in a follow-up phone call with ESPN that she was not denying that Nassar is guilty of assaulting some women, but that the number who have come forward is “really extreme.”
“There was no way there could have been so much,” she said. “Larry would have to have been doing this all day, every day, with no one catching on. This is a guy who put child pornography in a trash can. He’s not a savvy guy.”
Nassar, a former Michigan State University sports doctor and USA Gymnastics medical coordinator, pleaded guilty to 10 counts of first-degree criminal sexual conduct in November. The Michigan attorney general’s office said Wednesday that 256 girls and young women (the number had appeared incorrectly in earlier reports as 265) have filed complaints to law enforcement saying that Nassar assaulted them. More than half of those complaints have come since Nassar’s guilty plea, as awareness about the case has grown.
…
Smith said she believes that many of Nassar’s former patients received legitimate medical treatments that included the since-decertified doctor using his hands to manipulate sensitive areas of their bodies.
“I think Larry Nassar comes off as a really great person. There is no doubt he did a lot of good for a lot of his patients,” she told WWJ.
The women who say there were assaulted by Nassar cite the fact that he did not wear gloves, didn’t allow other trained doctors in the room during these treatments and did not explain what he was doing as evidence that Nassar was touching them for his own sexual gratification and not in an attempt to heal. Smith called these decisions “poor judgment” by Nassar, but said she doesn’t believe that they indicate sexual motives.
“They may not have been as sinister as some people believe them to be,” Smith told ESPN.
Despite his guilty plea, Nassar said in a letter he wrote to Judge Rosemarie Aquilina during his sentencing hearing in Ingham County earlier this month that he believes that he was “a good doctor” and what he was doing was a legitimate medical procedure.
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She may be right. There are 265 accusers and he may only be guilty of abusing 200 of them.
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She might be correct, but saying it without any evidence is pretty low (and I know you aren’t defending her). How does she think saying this helps her client or herself?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22290464/uconn-huskies-drop-price-season-tickets-3-9-season
UConn is really suffering in the AAC. After yet another losing season, they are lowering ticket prices significantly. This has to undermine their push to join a power conference.
The school says season-ticket holders, who began receiving renewal notices on Thursday, will see a 10 percent drop in prices from 2017 totals. Fans who renew by March 1 will receive an additional 10 percent discount.
Athletic Director David Benedict says the price drop is an effort to “allow and encourage” more fans to attend the games.
UConn went 3-9 last season, including 2-4 at Rentschler Field, its 40,000-seat stadium in East Hartford. The averaged announced crowd for a home game was 20,334, the lowest in the stadium’s history.
Season ticket prices will range from $354 to $96. That’s down from a range of $390 and $138. Access to some tickets also requires a “seat donation” of between $100 and $900.
Just the Michigan game costs $195 at OSU. A full season ticket is $681 ($799 face value) or $831 (for box/club seats – $974 face value), but most people must make a donation of $1500+ to get access to 2 season tickets. And OSU is getting 100,000+ to their games. One home game for OSU brings in more ticket-related revenue that the entire season for UConn.
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Which is why I have posted that UConn really should consider downgrading football and trying to join the Big East. UConn would make more from Big East basketball than they make being a member of the AAC. This will not happen, unless they give up on getting into a P5. As you said, their football program is getting weaker, not stronger.
Would the ACC football schools ever agree to accept a bottom tier AAC football program? Clemson, FSU and others would be adamantly opposed. If the ACC decided it wanted an additional member (if e.g. ND joined), I do not know where the ACC would go, but UConn would really be a last choice.
Would the B12 really take a super low end UConn football team?
UConn Women’s bball is the best. Men’s bball has been very good. End of UConn story. Not a big TV market. No impact in NYC.
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“Which is why I have posted that UConn really should consider downgrading football and trying to join the Big East. UConn would make more from Big East basketball than they make being a member of the AAC. This will not happen, unless they give up on getting into a P5. As you said, their football program is getting weaker, not stronger.”
It may make financial sense but it would take a tremendous lack of ego to do it voluntarily. The decision makers who pushed for a step up would have to admit their mistake. Plus the state would have to accept that all the money they invested in Rentschler Field was wasted.
“Would the ACC football schools ever agree to accept a bottom tier AAC football program? Clemson, FSU and others would be adamantly opposed. If the ACC decided it wanted an additional member (if e.g. ND joined), I do not know where the ACC would go, but UConn would really be a last choice.”
I think UConn would make some sense for them. They fit the footprint while adding a school on the coast between BC and UVA. Being a basketball power fits their mindset despite what the southern schools think. I’m not sure there is a better option unless the B12 falls apart leaving WV available, and WV has academic issues for the ACC. Besides, the ACC could sell the southern schools on getting ND football as part of this.
“Would the B12 really take a super low end UConn football team?”
No. UConn makes no sense for them.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22288788/sec-generated-5969-million-revenue-2016-17
The SEC’s revenue increased slightly for 2016-17 to $597M (from $584M), not including $23.1M in bowl revenue that schools kept and $7.8M in NCAA grants. The schools received $40.9M on average.
The B10 is projected to come in around $36.3M for 2016-17 before jumping to $51.1M in 2017-18 thanks to the new TV deals.
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http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2018/02/rutgers_syracuse_ucla_2020_2021_schedule.html
RU has dropped a home and home series with UCLA in 2020-21 for a home and home with Syracuse instead. The SU series reverses the location of the games (2020 was @UCLA, now vs SU), but UCLA said they offered to swap as well. The change will cost RU $500,000 since they did it more than 2 years in advance.
The UCLA home-and-home was agreed to under former coach Greg Schiano was Rutgers’ head coach. Current coach Chris Ash has placed an emphasis on playing regional non-conference rivals in order to energize fan turnout and excitement, particularly at home games. Syracuse continues that trend.
…
In addition to Syracuse, Rutgers has series with old conference rivals Boston College, Temple and Virginia Tech already scheduled for future seasons.
The shift to more regional games probably makes sense, but playing a P12 team can draw national exposure that a local team never will.
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/01/are-acc-sec-permanent-cross-division-rivals-unfair/
A look at the imbalance in scheduling in the ACC and SEC due to locked rivals. The author uses the past 10 years of conference games as the window for W%.
Her numbers:
The ACC
36.88% difference – Louisville (65.63%) vs. Virginia (28.75%)
25.97% – Virginia Tech (65.48%) vs. Boston College (39.51%)
25% – Pitt (52.5%) vs. Syracuse (27.5%)
20.75% – Clemson (77.38%) vs. Georgia Tech (56.63%)
12.68% – Florida State (71.43%) vs. Miami (58.75%)
9.35% – North Carolina (51.85%) vs. NC State (42.5%)
1.62% – Duke (35.37%) vs. Wake Forest (33.75%)
The SEC
56.01% difference – Alabama (88.51%) vs. Tennessee (32.5%)
17.32% – Mississippi State (43.57%) vs. Kentucky (26.25%)
13.5% – Ole Miss (40%) vs. Vanderbilt (26.5%)
12.19% – Georgia (65.85%) vs. Auburn (53.66%)
8.5% – Missouri (46%) vs. Arkansas (37.5%)
2.75% – LSU (65.85%) vs. Florida (63.1%)
0.23% – Texas A&M (52.08%) vs. South Carolina (51.85%)
Of course that is only of 8 games in their conference schedule and the other one does rotate. The better comparison to support her premise would be the difficulty of the locked rival versus the average team from that division (the result if both games rotated). Below is the ACC just as an example.
Average:
ACCA – 0.511
ACCC – 0.499
Average opponent – locked opponent in W% (negative means the locked rival is harder)
ACCA:
UL +0.211
WF +0.145
NCSU -0.020
SU -0.026
Clemson -0.067
FSU -0.089
BC -0.156
So UL and WF benefit while BC suffers. WF usually stinks, so that’s not a problem. But punishing an already bad BC team and helping a good UL team is unfair.
ACCC:
Pitt +0.236
Duke +0.173
VT +0.116
UNC +0.086
UVA -0.167
Miami -0.203
GT -0.263
Things are a lot more unfair here. Pitt gets a huge reward while GT gets majorly punished. Only 1 team is within 10% of the average.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2018/02/02/poll-nfls-core-audience-dropping-interest-lessens/300875002/
The NFL’s core audience is shrinking.
The NFL’s core audience is slipping away at a rapid pace, with a 9% decrease in interest since 2014, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released on Friday.
The dip in interest comes from adult fans who reported to have followed the league closely; just 51% of men between the ages of 18 and 49 now show significant interest in the NFL — down [from] 75% from 2014. The poll also shows, specifically, that the NFL’s core demographic — young men — have been following the sport less closely.
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How much of this is due to demographic change? Native American Whites are declining in numbers, especially college-bound males who are a core football fanbase. And the number of Hispanics and Africans is increasing, and their sport is soccer.
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“Native American Whites…”
???
Albino Native Americans?
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Well, yeah, sorta convoluted. “Native American” is defined both legally and constitutionally as anyone born in the US. However, it has been captured by the PC crown to mean Indians or as the Canadians say, First Nation. Ironically, our modern Indians are likely at least 3rd wave immigrants from Asia. Canadas Eskimos are likely 4th wave, just beat the Frogs by that much.
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It can’t be demographic changes over just 4 years.
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You’re probably right. But what did change over four years? It is possible that the survey is bogus and that nothing changed, including interest in the NFL.
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I don’t think it’s bogus. My guess is that it’s cyclical and the timing was bad for the NFL this time. NFL ratings have been down lately with the national anthem protests and related issues. None of that had happened in 2014.
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https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/02/02/washington-state-logan-tago-community-service-award-court-ordered
WSU needs to review their award procedure. A DL won the Community Involvement Award for his 240 hours of community service, which sounds fine. Unfortunately, all 240 hours were court ordered as part of his plea bargain to avoid a felony conviction.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/alabama-loses-recruiting-battle-to-princeton-as-four-star-qb-sticks-with-tigers/
I post this just for the novelty of it. Princeton beat out Alabama for a 4* QB recruit.
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Another odd recruiting fact per 247. Who has 5 of the top 11 football recruits in Kentucky?
Purdue. Who has the top recruit among Kentucky schools?-Western Kentucky. They have #18. Louisville has #23. Kentucky doesn’t have a single commitment from Kentucky players. They have mostly signed players from Ohio and Florida.
In Louisiana TCU has #3 and is in the running against LSU for #1. They are in the running for as many as 5 in the top 20 (but are long shots for 2 of those).
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http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/22312871/college-football-recruiting-true-battlegrounds
ESPN looks at where the best recruits (their top 100 over the past 10 years) come from all the way down to the county level.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22336786/viewership-super-bowl-lii-patriots-eagles-down
Following the trend all season, TV ratings were down for the Super Bowl. It still finished #10 all-time behind the past 8 Super Bowls plus the final episode of M*A*S*H*. It’s still a 20% improvement since 2005 and over 103M viewers, but even a close game couldn’t completely overcome the negative momentum from the season.
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https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2018/02/05/notre-dame-athletic-director-jack-swarbrick-advised-usa-gymnastics-sex-abuse-policy/1079569001/
Jack Swarbrick was an advisor for USAG on their sexual abuse policy before he became ND’s AD.
In an interview with IndyStar, Mike Jacki, USA Gymnastics president from 1983 to 1994, said Swarbrick discouraged the organization from distributing a booklet on child abuse to its members.
And former President Steve Penny, who served from 2005 to 2017, cited Swarbrick as the organization’s legal counsel in a 2015 deposition and said sexual abuse issues were “managed by our attorney.” Ultimately, however, USA Gymnastics’ board is responsible for setting policy.
…
Swarbrick characterized his former firm, then called Baker & Daniels, as the entity representing USA Gymnastics and giving advice. He described himself as someone who moved in and out of working with the organization from 1984 to 2008.
…
The national governing body kept complaint files on 54 coaches accused of sexual abuse from 1996 to 2006. Some of the files were kept in a drawer and not reported to law enforcement, according to court records.
IndyStar successfully intervened in a Georgia lawsuit to open the files to the public. They were heavily redacted but revealed that Swarbrick was copied on several letters in the files. Those letters generally involved a coach being added to the banned list or a coach being invited to participate in a hearing related to an abuse complaint.
…
Swarbrick said he doesn’t recall advising against distribution of a booklet about sexual abuse in 1988. To the contrary, he said, USA Gymnastics made a “principled choice” to even take on the issue of sexual abuse, exposing itself to legal liability.
He said he pushed the organization to become a pioneer among Olympic sports national governing bodies by using a retired FBI agent to investigate coaches accused of sexual abuse, banning some coaches for life and publishing a list of banned coaches.
Considering how poorly ND has handled sexual assault issues (Lizzy Seeberg), I wouldn’t be shocked to find out Swarbrick was bad at it before, too.
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A look at a potential correlation between NFL ratings and news ratings from a Fox Sports guy.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/gene-smith-urban-meyer-ridiculous-contract-coach-ohio-state.html
Gene Smith calls Jimbo Fisher’s and Nick Saban’s contracts ridiculous and such outliers as to not even be considered when deciding Urbamn Meyer’s contract for the future.
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http://www.nfl.com/combine/participants
The NFL combine invitee list of 336 players is out.
By Conference:
SEC – 70
ACC – 60
B10 – 50
P12 – 45
B12 – 29
AAC – 17
Other – 65
By school:
AL – 14
OSU – 11
UGA, LSU – 10
FSU, Miami – 9
PSU – 8
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https://247sports.com/Season/2018-Football/CompositeTeamRankings
Another signing day has passed. For the first time in 7 years, AL didn’t finish with the #1 class.
1. UGA – 323 total pts, 94.2 average recruit rankings
2. OSU – 317, 94.3
3. UT – 300, 92.2
4. PSU – 286, 91.7
5. Clemson – 284, 93.5
6. USC – 282, 94.0
7. Miami – 281, 91.0
8. OU – 276, 91.3
9. AL – 275, 92.5
10. ND – 263, 90.1
B10:
2. OSU – 317, 94.3
4. PSU – 286, 91.7
21. MI – 231, 88.8
23. NE – 228, 87.7
28. UMD – 218, 87.1
31. MSU – 211, 87.0
35. MN – 207, 86.2
39. IA – 202, 85.6
43. WI – 195, 86.5
47. IN – 190, 84.9
48. PU – 187, 84.7
53. IL – 185, 83.9
57. RU – 181, 84.4
58. NW – 180, 85.4
Comparisons:
MAC averages: 78.3-82.9
AAC: 79.9-85.1 (I excluded Navy because they recruit under different rules; #2 was 83.6)
ACC: 83.7-93.5 (#2 was 91.0)
B12: 83.9-92.2 (#2 was 91.3)
P12: 83.9-94.0 (#2 was 90.4)
SEC: 85.3-94.2 (#2 was 92.5)
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Thanks for the effort!
Maryland is rising and might eventually become an upper division football school in the B1G. Is Wisky falling?
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Maryland may certainly be the rise from a recruiting perspective but Wisconsin is recruiting at their normal levels. It’s a developmental program filled with a lot guys with high ceilings that generally need 2 to 3 years in the weight room to become contributors. Fortunately the walk-on program provides the needed depth when you have a rooster that limits the total number of scholarship players that are physically ready to contribute.
I think maybe it’s genetics for upper midwest kids that may develop a little slower physically.
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Kevin,
“Maryland may certainly be the rise from a recruiting perspective but Wisconsin is recruiting at their normal levels. It’s a developmental program filled with a lot guys with high ceilings that generally need 2 to 3 years in the weight room to become contributors. Fortunately the walk-on program provides the needed depth when you have a rooster that limits the total number of scholarship players that are physically ready to contribute.
I think maybe it’s genetics for upper midwest kids that may develop a little slower physically.”
There are a few factors. Southern kids usually also have spring football, so they are literally further along in terms of football skills. The weather allows them to play football more of the year and it shows. They also play a lot more 7 on 7 football, leading to more football skills. This leads to southern kids being more developed and closer to their ceilings when they get recruited. Thus they get ranked higher. On the other hand you see schools like MSU, WI and IA outperform their recruiting year after year as they develop midwestern kids with a few southerners mixed in.
The demographics also matter as the midwest is largely of Germanic and Scandinavian heritage, meaning it produces a lot of big, strong men (OL, TE, FB, DL, LB). The south has a much higher percentage of black people which leads to a lot more fast twitch athletes. If you look at WI’s roster, they go south for WR and DB. Meanwhile southern schools will get southern players at all positions by default, leading to higher ranked classes.
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But would you say traditional southern cooking/cuisine also ensures that of the black athletes available in the south, you do have the sufficient numbers of big-strong black guys for the lines? The PAC-12, even with “talent” in southern California, the East Bay, greater Sacramento and the various cities outside of CA, tend to have more skinny lean athletes, often 15-20 lbs less than their skill position counterparts in the SEC, perhaps also due to diets.
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urbanleftbehind,
“But would you say traditional southern cooking/cuisine also ensures that of the black athletes available in the south, you do have the sufficient numbers of big-strong black guys for the lines?”
The southern diet is actually a concern for coaches. Many of the guys big enough to play OL/DL have very high body fat percentages. That’s risky in HS football where there are fewer medical people to oversee practice/training and the south starts practice with temps in the 90s every fall. It’s not that the rest of the US doesn’t have the same issues, but obesity is a bigger issue in the south and when combined with the weather it gets dangerous.
In case people wondered, that wasn’t me making stuff up. Other neutral observers and even WI coaches have pointed out the same things.
http://www.espn.com/blog/bigten/post/_/id/141079/wisconsin-prospects-excel-more-on-field-than-in-recruiting-rankings
For years, Wisconsin’s recruiting strategy has focused on finding burly offensive linemen within state borders and carefully searching for skill-position prospects in the South and East that might have gone overlooked by other major programs.
http://uwbadgers.com/roster.aspx?path=football
From their 2017 roster:
Players from WI:
TE/FB – 8 of 10 (80%)
OL – 12 of 17 (71%)
DL – 9 of 14 (64%)
ST – 5 of 8 (63%)
S – 5 of 11 (45%)
WR – 6 of 15 (40%)
LB – 7 of 20 (35%)
RB – 3 of 9 (33%)
QB – 1 of 4 (25%)
CB – 0 of 8 (0%)
Players from AL, FL, GA, NC:
CB – 4
LB – 3
WR – 3
DL – 1
ST – 1
Players from the West/SW:
WR – 3
LB – 2
DL – 2
ST – 2
CB – 1
OL – 1
QB – 1
TE/FB- 1
Players from the Midwest/East:
OL – 4
TE/FB – 1
DL – 2
LB – 8
WR – 3
RB – 5
QB – 2
S – 4
CB – 3
Combine that into 2 main regions:
Players from WI/Midwest/East:
OL – 16 of 17 (94%)
TE/FB – 9 of 10 (90%)
RB – 8 of 9 (89%)
S – 9 of 11 (82%)
DL – 11 of 14 (79%)
LB – 15 of 20 (75%)
QB – 3 of 4 (75%)
ST – 5 of 8 (63%)
WR – 9 of 15 (60%)
CB – 3 of 8 (38%)
Players from West/SW/South/SE:
WR – 6
CB – 5
LB – 5
DL – 3
ST – 3
OL – 1
QB – 1
TE/FB- 1
It’s pretty clear WI looks to other regions predominantly for a certain type of player (WR, CB, LB to a lesser degree).
“The PAC-12, even with “talent” in southern California, the East Bay, greater Sacramento and the various cities outside of CA, tend to have more skinny lean athletes, often 15-20 lbs less than their skill position counterparts in the SEC, perhaps also due to diets.”
Perhaps with the exception being those with Pacific Islander heritage who make up a decent percentage of DL and OL out west. I think part of it is the style of HS football in the different regions. The west favors a more athletic player for a passing game while the south still has a lot of run-based systems.
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bob sykes,
“Maryland is rising and might eventually become an upper division football school in the B1G. Is Wisky falling?”
UMD has recruited well under Durkin. It will be tough to become upper division in the B10 when OSU, PSU and MI outrecruit them every year, though.
UMD:
2018 – #28, 23 recruits, 4 4* or better recruits, 87.1 average, 218 total
2017 – #18, 28, 8, 86.9, 230
2016 – #41, 22, 3, 84.2, 190 (Durkin was hired in December of 2015)
2015 – #47, 18, 2, 84.7, 182
2014 – #41, 18, 4, 84.5, 191
2013 – #38, 22, 3, 84.3, 193
2012 – #37, 23, 3, 84.9, 205
2011 – #50, 21, 1, 82.0, 163 (Edsall was hired after the 2010 season)
2010 – #39, 23, 3, 85.9, 206
2009 – #31, 27, 5, 85.2, 212 (Friedgen was coach since 2001)
Edsall underperformed averaging 84.6 for his full classes. Durkin is hitting 87.0. The problem is that the competition is stiff.
B10 East averages over the past 2 classes:
OSU – 94.4
MI – 90.0
PSU – 90.0
UMD – 87.0
MSU – 86.0
MSU has consistently outperformed their recruiting rankings, too. UMD should improve and become a consistent pain to play in the East, but their ceiling is still probably 3rd in the East.
As for WI, they’ve been at that same level for a long time. They recruit to their system and get a lot of guys who need time to develop.
WI:
2018 – #44, 20 recruits, 1 4* or better recruit, 86.5 average, 195 total
2017 – #39, 18, 2, 85.8, 194
2016 – #35, 26, 3, 85.0, 203
2015 – #41, 19, 1, 85.5, 190
2014 – #32, 26, 3, 84.8, 205
2013 – #40, 21, 1, 84.6, 191
2012 – #65, 12, 4, 85.4, 161
2011 – #44, 21, 2, 83.1, 174
2010 – #46, 26, 1, 84.6, 194
2009 – #42, 22, 2, 84.5, 200
WI is one of those schools where the rankings don’t mean very much. They’ve been a top 10 W% program over the past decade while pulling top 50 classes (#43 on average).
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/2/8/16990550/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2018-class
Single year recruiting results have a lot of noise. Bill Connelly compiles 2-year and 5-year averages. These are better at predicting success. The article has a sortable table so I won’t post any of the numbers here.
What might be of more interest are the recent trends. The B10 gets both good and bad news here.
Largest positive change in two-year recruiting rankings (Power 5)
Virginia Tech (14 spots, from 38th to 24th)
Kansas (14 spots, from 77th to 63rd)
Rutgers (10 spots, from 63rd to 53rd)
Purdue (10 spots, from 72nd to 62nd)
Penn State (nine spots, from 17th to eighth)
Miami (nine spots, from 18th to ninth)
Washington (nine spots, from 26th to 17th)
Maryland (nine spots, from 32nd to 23rd)
Illinois (nine spots, from 59th to 50th)
Louisville (eight spots, from 36th to 28th)
…
Largest negative change in two-year recruiting rankings (Power 5*)
Oregon State (15 spots, from 45th to 60th)
Texas Tech (15 spots, from 44th to 59th)
Arkansas (14 spots, from 27th to 41st)
Duke (12 spots, from 39th to 51st)
Stanford (11 spots, from 16th to 27th)
Michigan (11 spots, from fourth to 15th)
Baylor (10 spots, from 24th to 34th)
Ole Miss (10 spots, from 20th to 30th)
California (nine spots, from 48th to 57th)
Michigan State (eight spots, from 25th to 33rd)
It’s no surprise that teams with new head coaches fill the list of improving teams. Michigan had a down class this year but in part that’s due to the large and talented classes Harbaugh got in the 2 previous seasons (2017 – 30 recuits, 21 4* or better; 2016 – 28 recruits, 14 4* or better). You can’t pull classes like that every year.
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http://www.bigten.org/genrel/020518aah.html
Facts about the B10 in the Winter Olympics this year:
* 45 current and former B10 representatives
* 35 are competitors (WI and MN have 11 each)
* 20 on Team USA
* 9 for Canada
* Others represent Finland, Germany, Nigeria, South Korea and Sweden
* 3 current students will compete
* 20 will play women’s hockey
* 9 will play men’s hockey
* Other sports: bobsled – 3, figure skating – 3, curling – 1, speedskating – 1
The article has the complete list in table format.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/02/08/mailbag-signing-day-rankings-notre-dame-nebraska
Andy Staples answered a couple of questions about team expectations.
From @SOUPERMANTDOT: Is Brian Kelly building a consistent minimum 10-win team at Notre Dame?
Let me stop you right there. If you’re a Notre Dame fan and you’re requiring at least 10 wins a season to be pleased with your football program, you are setting yourself up for disappointment.
While the 4–8 record Notre Dame posted in 2016 is unacceptable under any circumstances, the difficulty of the job relative to the Alabamas, Ohio States and Clemsons should provide a slight grading curve. I realize this is an ironic choice of words because Notre Dame’s classroom grading policies, stricter honor code and lack of an Underwater Basketweaving major* are some of the reasons why it’s tougher to win there than it is at the schools mentioned above. Another major reason is a lack of a local recruiting base. No program has a stronger national reach than Notre Dame, but that still doesn’t make recruiting nationally easy. It’s still much easier to have hundreds of quality prospects within driving distance.
*I’m not sure how we managed to settle on “Underwater Basketweaving” as code for an easy major. Weaving baskets while underwater sounds quite difficult.
A reasonable expectation for Notre Dame is a season approaching double-digit wins in most years with the occasional run at playoff contention. That means a four-year mark that looks something like this: 9–4, 10–3, 8–5, 11–2. Ten wins every season is unreasonable at most places. Alabama and Ohio State might be the only places that can reasonably expect it no matter the coach. Georgia and Clemson may be on the way to joining that group. Florida State, Penn State and USC could play their way back onto that list. But it will always be a short list. And given the way college football has changed over the past 30 years, Notre Dame doesn’t belong on it.
One of the keys to happiness in college football is understanding the realistic expectations for your favorite program. For Notre Dame, a minimum of 10 wins a season is an unfair standard.
From @Palmerism: #DearAndy Which upcoming goal is most important for Scott Frost at Nebraska: 1) Measurable improvement 2) Return to competitiveness 3) Bowl game appearance 4) Return to Top 25 team?
If Frost can achieve No. 1, he’ll definitely achieve Nos. 2 and 3 and probably will achieve No. 4. Unlike the question above, these aren’t unreasonable expectations.
Nebraska should be able to do what Wisconsin has done in recent years. That isn’t asking the impossible. It might not happen immediately, but given how quickly Frost turned the corner at UCF and given the quality of the Big Ten West relative to some other divisions in college football, it’s quite possible Nebraska can reach this level in two seasons. Given the buzz in the coaching community about Nebraska quarterback signee Adrian Martinez from Fresno, Calif., it’s possible Frost is already well on his way.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/02/08/new-mexico-suspends-football-coach-amid-misconduct-probe/110236544/
Bob Davie is in some trouble. It sounds like he should be fired, frankly.
The University of New Mexico suspended head football coach Bob Davie on Thursday for 30 days without pay, following multiple investigations that examined whether he and coaching staff interfered with criminal investigations or misconduct cases involving players.
The suspension comes after an initial investigation requested by university officials had found through confidential interviews with players that Davie had told them in an all-team meeting to “get some dirt” on a student who had reported that a fellow player had raped her. However, a report released by the university Thursday showed a follow-up probe conducted by a Chicago-based law firm could not confirm the same allegations.
If his own players said he told them that, he should be fired. Plus there’s this:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/02/09/new-mexico-football-coach-faces-heat-over-slur-allegations/110261904/
A report from the school’s Office of Equal Opportunity released Thursday said witnesses told the office Davie some variation of the N-word at a practice and told four black players on a golf cart they were sitting on “a white man’s tractor.”
Davie told investigators through his attorney that he never used the racial epithet and didn’t remember the golf cart comment at a camp in Ruidoso, New Mexico.
If he has racial and sexual assault issues, he needs to go.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/colorado-state-fire-larry-eustachy-rams-interim-coach-reportedly-abusive-players-boycott-practice-4-star-recruit-decommits.html
As a comparison, CSU is firing their hoops coach Larry Eustachy for abusing his players. He was investigated for the same thing 4 years ago and CSU installed a zero-tolerance policy. To make it worse, the players boycotted practice Thursday in part because they claim the interim coach is even more verbally abusive.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/csu/mens-basketball/2018/02/10/csu-places-interim-basketball-coach-steve-barnes-leave/326181002/
CSU has now placed the interim coach on paid administrative leave as well, so they’re down to three assistants. One of them was head coach at a junior college and thus is now the interim coach at CSU.
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/2/9/16994486/2018-college-football-rankings-projections
Early 2018 S&P+ projections based on returning production, recent history and recent recruiting. They’ll be as wrong as any preseason top 25, but at least they’re objective.
1. Ohio State – 27.0
2. Alabama – 27.0
3. Clemson – 25.4
4. Washington – 23.9
5. Auburn – 22.4
6. Georgia – 22.1
7. Notre Dame – 21.4
8. Penn State – 20.2
9. Oklahoma – 19.5
10. Michigan – 18.3
B10:
11. MSU
12. WI
36. IA
38. NW
54. PU
58. IN
60. NE
67. MN
80. UMD
84. RU
99. IL
Other P5 teams below 60:
61. KSU
64. UK
65. Cal
71. SU
73. UVA
75. Vandy
79. TN
89. CO
103. KU
110. OrSU
Projected conference averages:
SEC (+10.7)
ACC (+7.9)
Big Ten (+7.9) – the B10 is both top heavy (5 of top 12) and bottom heavy (3 of bottom 6)
Pac-12 (+6.6)
Big 12 (+6.4)
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A good pod system for the SEC even if they stay at 8 games. A similar plan should for the ACC. Unfortunately it doesn’t work as well for the B10 because the pods needed to preserve rivalries are terribly unbalanced.
B10 pods:
A – NE, WI, IA, MN
B – NW, IL, PU, IN
C – MI, MSU, OSU
D – PSU, RU, UMD
Half of the time you’d have A & C paired, putting OSU, MI, MSU, NE, WI and IA all in 1 division. While I suppose that’d be great for NW, IL, PU, IN, RU and UMD to have just PSU to beat out to make the CCG, it’d make for very unbalanced divisions and probably a lot of losses for the AC champ.
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As I’ve said to anyone who claims you should go to 16 so scheduling is easier and you can do pods. You can do pods at 14. But it doesn’t necessarily work. For the SEC example, UK-TN, VN-TN, VN-Ole Miss, AL-LSU are some critical rivalries that no longer happen every year (they may not be critical to the networks or conference title, but they matter to the schools). That was just with a quick look. There were other important, but not critical, ones I didn’t list.
If you go to 9 games, or allow an ooc game against a conference opponent, you can make it work. But with 8 games, you just can’t do pods that work for the SEC. The rivalries don’t follow neat geographic lines or standard groups.
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I didn’t look at his pods in detail to see what rivalries may have slipped.
His claim: Bedrock rivalry games are played ANNUALLY.
All other games would be played every other year at worst. I agree that he punished the northern trio (UK, UT, VU) more than anyone else. Perhaps a different set if pods would help that (swap UT and VU for AL and AU perhaps).
Is dropping some rivalries to 50% of the time worth it to play every team at least once every 2 years? That’s really the question. How many old rivalries have dropped to once every 6 years with the current system?
Of course 9 games would cure a lot of ills, but most of the SEC (all but AL) is avoiding that 9th game like the plague.
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Auburn-Tennessee and Auburn-Florida as well as Tennessee-Ole Miss and Georgia-Ole Miss are serious rivalries that are rarely played now. Kentucky used to play LSU every year, but that wasn’t that big for either school.
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The optimum number of schools for a conference is 10. That allows you to play a round robin to determine the champion (no CCG) and leaves room for 3 good OOC games.
Plus, without CCG’s, you have room for another round in the national championship series. Eight schools becomes a snap. And you would need them because you’re going to have 6 to 7 conferences.
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I’d prefer that they’d pair A-D and B-C permanently; ideally they’d dispense with divisions all together.
Congratulations to Fighting Irish hockey for winning their first B1G title tonight.
Unless I missed something both ND and JH have more B1G titles than Rutgers.
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http://picksixpreviews.com/how_to_win_in_recruiting.html
Brands win in recruiting. This article shows how a group of recruits ranked every P5 program. The also show some correlation between revenue and recruiting results.
How about the schools with financial resources and solid brand recognition, yet relatively poor recruiting results? Wisconsin can barely land a single 4 star recruit yet appears in the top 16 of both our brand rankings and revenue rankings. Darlow described an issue he frequently sees, stating: “Too many schools are leading with the same three or four recruiting pitches; things like playing time, head coach prowess, facilities…and every program is a “family” these days. As is the case in any industry, when you go blow for blow with your competition, you’ll eventually lose to the bigger, stronger opponent.” Oregon and Clemson don’t try to be Alabama and Ohio State. You could make the case that Wisconsin does.
I don’t necessarily agree with that assessment. I think WI recruits to their style so they don’t chase all the 4* and 5* players, preferring fit and proper attitude.
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http://picksixpreviews.com/fashion-wars.html
Proof of just how unwise most recruits are. This articles gives the results of a survey of HS Sophomore and Junior recruits about the importance of uniforms.
First, we asked recruits to answer: “Uniforms have a great impact on my perception of a team.” The recruits could answer ‘Very True’, ‘Moderately True’, ‘Moderately False’, ‘Very False’, or ‘N/A’. Only 11 out of 100 prospects responded ‘Very False’, while 72 responded either ‘Moderately True’ or ‘Very True’. Next we asked: “A school’s uniform will impact my college decision.” The results were: ‘Very True’ (7), ‘Moderately True’ (26), ‘Moderately False’ (24), and ‘Very False’ (31).
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Of course, Nike does not have one cookie-cutter design for all 46 teams it outfits, so the uniforms can vary greatly by school. We then asked which uniform style recruits preferred: modern or classic. Of course, this question does not factor in the execution of the uniform design, but the results provide some insight into the minds of these prospects. The most popular answer also implied that the execution was critical, as “both could be cool” (47%). However, the surprising statistic was that 43% of respondents favored modern uniforms while only 5% preferred classic uniforms.
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Finally, to see which teams actually appealed the most to these prospects, we asked each player to write in the team he thought had the best uniform and the team he thought had the worst uniform. Oregon had the overwhelming majority of votes for the best uniform—60 of 94 respondents voted for the Ducks (some players wrote in more than one team). There was a greater variety of responses for the team with the worst look. One player said, “worst uniforms I do not know, but baggy jerseys I do not like.” Alabama and Penn State, Nike schools, were the leading vote-getters for this question, which reinforces the recruits’ preference towards modern, not classic, uniforms. Clearly, the unfavorable uniforms have not hurt the Crimson Tide brand, which is perhaps the strongest in college football. However, the 22 teams receiving votes for “best uniforms” averaged 8.86 wins in 2015, while the 29 teams receiving votes for “worst uniforms” averaged only 6.5 wins in 2015. Since average number of wins takes into account actual coaching ability, we also looked at the average 2016 recruiting class rankings according to Rivals.com. The 22 teams receiving votes for “best uniforms” had a combined average recruiting class ranking of 24.0—the 29 “worst” looking teams had a combined average of 53.9 (note: teams ranked outside of the top 96 were given a ranking of 97).
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http://www.sportcal.com/Insight/Interviews/116379
A lengthy interview with Larry Scott.
“We wanted to be the masters of our own destiny, to control the programming and have a platform to allow our fans, our alumni to be able to see these sports,” Scott explains to Sportcal Insight from his downtown office.
“We felt that it would improve us long-term if we could create our own media company and use that as innovation capital, with a sense that the technology was going to disrupt the market, that there would be new models of distribution and players involved, as opposed to only riding some of that wave when you’ve got third-party parents like ESPN and Fox that might do deals for OTT platforms or with a Snapchat or Twitter.
“Being in the business yourself, we figured we’d be able to learn more, see what evolves, get to know these companies ourselves, and it would be a nice hedge on the future if there were going to be direct-to-consumer options.”
During the nascent years of the Pac-12 Networks, Scott admits there was an education process to go through for the universities.
He notes: “There’s a toggle between maximising your revenue and control. We saw significant non-financial benefits by being able to control our programming and have a distribution platform, and in the future we would develop this know-how, expertise and the relationships so that when our rights do become available [in 2024] and we’re weighing up the different approaches, we are going to be far ahead of the game compared with others that do not own their own content.”
So did Scott have the foresight to plan with such disruption in mind, or has the escalation of digital players’ interest in live sports rights come as a (welcome) surprise?
“Looking back I think our strategic thinking was spot on, but we could not have anticipated the pace of change. It has disrupted and is moving faster than we would have anticipated,” Scott reflects.
“I had an instinct that we should think of ourselves not as a television entity but as a content entity. We got some raised eyebrows when we said we were starting a network and we’re going to control it, but from San Francisco not Los Angeles, which along with New York is considered the hotbed for entertainment.
“I felt that technology companies were going to be as important to the industry in terms of distribution and engagement as traditional entertainment companies. Certainly what has happened over the last few years is proving that.
“Now we are looking at companies based in Seattle, like Amazon, who might wind up being the biggest distribution platform of anyone, or Facebook, which is right in our back yard. And these are all the companies that have alumni from our schools.”
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“I think the value of the Pac 12 is going to continue to ascend, and I also think there will be more competition for rights than right now. We had three entities bid for our rights in 2011 when we went out to market, ESPN, Fox and NBC. It would not surprise me if we’ve got half a dozen to a dozen different bidders for our rights in 2024. I suspect all three companies I’ve mentioned will still be around, plus there will be other media and technology companies with different platforms or that are programmers in their own right.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22382611/who-wins-all-recruiting-ranks-tell-make-college-football-playoff
The numbers show that recruiting is vital to CFB success. Based on recent history, these are your potential CFP and National Title winners in CFB for 2018.
Each of the past seven national champions have averaged a top-10 recruiting class the four years prior to winning the national championship, and all seven have landed at least one recruiting class ranked in the top four in the two years prior to their title win.
Title contenders:
AL – 2.5 average
OSU – 3.75
UGA – 4.75
FSU – 4.5
Since the playoff’s inception, almost every team that has played in a CFP semifinal has averaged a recruiting class ranking of 15 or better for the four years prior to their playoff berth. The only exceptions to that rule have been Michigan State, Washington and Oregon.
CFP contenders:
Clemson – 6.75 (lacks a top 4 class in the past 2 years but was #5 this year)
USC – 6.75
LSU – 8.25
Auburn – 9.25
PSU – 13.25
UT – 13.75
OU – 14
TN – 14.75
Obviously if look at recent on-field success for teams you can probably eliminate some of these for 2018 (FSU, UT, TN) and there could easily be another exception (WI, etc).
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Frank,
“PS – A new post on the playoff is coming soon. I know it has been a looooong time.”
You said that more than 2 months ago. I know real life keeps you busy and we’re getting what we pay for, but any chance we get it before March Madness? 1700+ comments makes the page unwieldy.
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https://www.theguardian.com/football/2018/feb/08/facebook-google-netflix-not-ready-to-enter-premier-league-tv-rights-battle
Some people thought the EPL digital broadcast rights might be a preview for the next round of Tier 1 TV deals in CFB. If so, then this is bad news. Facebook, Google and Netflix all opted not to bid for the rights to EPL games. Amazon might bid on one of the less attractive of the 7 packages. CFB has several years before the next round of TV deals and the landscape may change a lot in that time period.
Facebook, Google and Netflix are not submitting bids for the next round of Premier League TV rights, with most analysts believing Sky and BT will remain the major players.
It had been thought the Silicon Valley tech giants could intervene and cause a price hike from the £5.1bn Sky and BT combined paid in 2015 but the Guardian understands they are not yet ready to get involved in live sport rights in the UK. It is thought Amazon, who have already demonstrated an appetite for live sporting rights, could submit a bid for one of the less attractive of the seven packages that went out to tender in September.
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Amazon is understood to be interested in one of the packages that offers two entire rounds of games, simultaneously, on midweek evenings and a bank holiday.
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Kieran Maguire, a football finance expert at the University of Liverpool, said that he did not believe the tech giants were ready to enter the market.
“That is just the Premier League talking up auction prices,” Maguire said. “It makes no sense for them to bid domestically as the UK is insignificant when looking at global strategy. There is some potential in overseas markets but there is still an issue of monetising subscribers – even Netflix hasn’t quite managed that yet.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22420219/ncaa-denies-notre-dame-fighting-irish-appeal-vacated-wins-2012-13
ND is upset that the NCAA insists that they vacate all their wins from 2012 and 2013 due to academic misconduct.
Notre Dame’s president, the Rev. John Jenkins, criticized the decision in a letter to alumni, saying the penalty was unprecedented considering who was involved in the misconduct and that the school was being punished for rigorously enforcing its honor code.
“We are deeply disappointed by and strongly disagree with the denial of the University’s appeal, announced today by the NCAA,” Jenkins said in the letter.
“To impose a severe penalty for this retroactive ineligibility establishes a dangerous precedent and turns the seminal concept of academic autonomy on its head. At best, the NCAA’s decision in this case creates a randomness of outcome based solely on how an institution chooses to define its honor code; at worst, it creates an incentive for colleges and universities to change their honor codes to avoid sanctions like that imposed here.”
He called the ruling unfair, referencing the recent North Carolina case in which the NCAA did not punish the school after an investigation of athletes taking irregular courses.
Notre Dame agreed to accept certain NCAA findings and acknowledged cheating involving several football players and a student athletic trainer but appealed only the penalty that vacated victories.
The NCAA stripped Notre Dame of 21 victories, fined the school $5,000 and placed the school on one year’s probation in November 2016 after finding academic misconduct orchestrated by the trainer.
Notre Dame was the national runner-up during the 2012 season, losing to Alabama in the BCS title game and finishing with a 12-1 mark. The Irish went 9-4 in 2013.
“Student-to-student cheating is not normally within the NCAA’s jurisdiction, but the NCAA concluded that the student’s role as a part-time assistant trainer made her a ‘representative of the institution’ and justified a vacation of team records penalty in this case,” Jenkins said in the letter.
“There is no precedent in previous NCAA cases for the decision to add a discretionary penalty of vacation of team records in a case of student-to-student cheating involving a part-time student worker who had no role in academic advising.”
The appeals committee said in its report that the committee on infractions did not abuse its discretion when it determined the student trainer was an institutional employee.
“When reviewing infractions cases, the Committee on Infractions uses the bylaws and interpretations contemporaneous to the conduct being reviewed,” the appeals committee wrote. “Therefore, under the bylaws in place at the time of the violations, a student trainer would be considered an institutional employee.”
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The NCAA said the trainer was employed by the athletic department from fall 2009 through the spring of 2013 and “partially or wholly completed numerous academic assignments for football student-athletes in numerous courses” from 2011 into 2013. It said she did substantial coursework for two players and gave impermissible help to six others in 18 courses over two academic years.
The NCAA said the woman “continued to provide impermissible academic benefits to football student-athletes for a full year after she graduated” and was in her first year of law school elsewhere.
In all, the NCAA said, three athletes wound up playing while ineligible during the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
In his letter, Jenkins said the players were retroactively declared ineligible after Notre Dame investigated the misconduct in 2014 and recalculated the students’ grades. Jenkins said that had Notre Dame merely expelled the students instead of recalculating grades, had a statute of limitations for past offenses or chose not to punish the students, an NCAA penalty would not have been imposed.
The vacation of victories was a discretionary penalty. Notre Dame objected to the penalty, noting all previous NCAA academic misconduct cases that resulted in victories being vacated involved an administrator, coach or person who served in an academic role.
I sympathize a little bit with ND, but they seem petty for complaining when they admit their athletes were cheating and thus ineligible. They got punished for putting academics and integrity first. They should be bragging about that rather than appealing and complaining. I’d mention it first thing when recruiting any athlete who takes academics seriously.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22424667/michigan-state-faculty-delivers-no-confidence-vote-board-trustees
MSU’s faculty gave the BoT a vote of no confidence 61-4.
Members of the faculty voted 61-4 to express no confidence in the eight-member governing body at Michigan State, according to multiple news outlets in East Lansing. The faculty does not have power to force trustees from their position; they are elected by the public for eight-year terms. But members of the school’s faculty felt it was important to let the trustees know that a major part of the campus community does not approve of recent decisions they have made.
The vote was called largely in response to the board’s decision to name John Engler, a former Michigan governor, the school’s interim president. Engler replaced Lou Anna Simon as Michigan State’s leader two weeks ago. Simon resigned last month amid heavy criticism that she and the university did not properly handle the Nassar case while the disgraced doctor abused patients on campus, nor during the aftermath of his crimes since he was fired in September 2016.
The faculty had hoped the board would pick an interim president who had more academic experience and more experience in dealing with sexual assault issues.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-heads-in-wrong-direction-with-largest-attendance-drop-in-34-years/
CFB had its biggest drop in average attendance since 1983. Games averaged 42,203 (-1409), which is about where attendance was back in the early 80s.
A few notes:
* Neutral site games and bowls accounted for over 440,000 of the 1.44M total decrease in attendance. There were just 62 neutral site and bowl games compared to 868 total games, so these games had a major impact on the result. Regular games were “only” down 962 on average.
* The hurricanes forced many rescheduled games
* TV is pushing more and more games into bad time slots for fans (weeknights, etc)
* The plethora of cupcake games hurts the total
* Schools are slowly downsizing stadiums in many places
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Agree with your above point but would also add that I think more and more people are less social then they once were. Social media and technology are likely contributors. Sports have also become oversaturated. The idea of being somewhere with thousands of others has less appeal for the modern fan.
On the flip side, with so many games on TV fans don’t want to miss the other action that would be inevitable by taking the better part of the day going to a game.
Certainly cost and inconvenience/lack of comfort are big factors. I have no problem with a 3.5 hour game from my couch where I have fridge and bathroom access but I don’t enjoy sitting on a cramped bleacher for that amount of time.
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Kevin,
I certainly agree that the hassle factor keeps rising and so does the opportunity cost. Frankly, the continuous rise in prices for everything is probably a big factor all by itself.
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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-basketball/pac-12-basketball-teams-zone-in-on-new-defensive-strategy/
A look at the rise of zone defense in CBB with a focus on the P12.
When Dana Altman arrived at Oregon in 2010, only one other men’s basketball team in what was then the Pac-10 played some variation of a zone defense.
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Fast-forward eight years, and the popularity of the zone defense, which was once considered a gimmicky strategy employed by teams with inferior athletes, has expanded to every corner of the conference.
“Teams are changing up,” Altman said. “They see the advantage of playing zone at least for a while. … Everybody except Arizona has got some variation of it.”
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“I think it has something to do with the rule changes,” said Arizona associate head coach Lorenzo Romar, who employed a variation of the zone during his final seasons at Washington. “If you barely touch someone, there’s a foul. No hand-checking. There’s no five-seconds call.
“So teams just drive you and put the ball on the floor and it’s made it a little more difficult on defenses. The zone helps you keep guys out of the lane.”
Pac-12 analyst Mike Montgomery, who built a Hall of Fame coaching career at Stanford and California, attributes the rising popularity of the zone defense to the increasing attrition of players via transfer or early entry into the NBA draft.
The frequent roster churn, Montgomery argued, makes it difficult for coaches to maintain player continuity over several years and teach sound man-to-man defensive principles.
“In my opinion, it takes two good years to teach man-to-man defense,” Montgomery said. “It really does. To teach kids how to slide, how to close and all of that stuff – two years. With the zone you can put it in pretty quick and cause people problems.”
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http://www.multichannel.com/news/content/virtual-mvpds-ended-2017-53m-subs-study/418107
Streaming TV is up to 5.3M subscribers with SlingTV having 43.4% market share. Most subscribers also have another pay TV subscription.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/02/91103/greg-schiano-ryan-day-become-ohio-states-first-million-dollar-assistants-as-all-10-assistant-coaches-sign-new
OSU has finally joined the $1M club as 2 assistants got raises to meet or exceed that limit. Greg Schiano got a 1 year deal worth $1.5M to return as DC. Ryan Day will become the OC and playcaller (he was co-OC last year) and he got a 3 year deal worth $1M per year.
OSU’s assistants were paid the 13th highest total last year ($4.485M total) despite nobody making $1M. AL was #1 at $5.995M. For 2018 OSU will be up to $7.06M, but don’t forget that includes a 10th coach that didn’t exist last year.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/22457780/michigan-state-freshman-basketball-player-subject-criminal-sexual-conduct-investigation-espn
More bad news at MSU.
A member of Michigan State’s No. 2-ranked basketball team has been under investigation for criminal sexual conduct since the start of the fall semester, sources close to the case confirmed to Outside the Lines on Thursday.
Ingham County, Michigan, prosecutors are in the process of determining whether formal charges should be filed against the player, freshman guard Brock Washington. Washington, a walk-on from Southfield, Michigan, is named as the lone suspect in an alleged assault that Michigan State campus police have classified as fourth-degree criminal sexual conduct, the sources told Outside the Lines.
In August, a female student reported to campus police that Washington groped her without her permission, the sources told Outside the Lines. After an investigation, police on Dec. 13 forwarded their findings to the county prosecutor’s office.
Details of the allegations and circumstances remain unknown; a police report has not been released publicly. Outside the Lines requested a copy of the police report through the university’s public records office on Feb. 6, and the university responded Wednesday with a request for a 10-day extension to answer the request.
Outside the Lines reached out Thursday afternoon to multiple university officials and Washington for comment. None responded to calls, voicemails or emails. Outside the Lines also reached out to John Truscott, who was hired recently to lead the university’s crisis communications efforts. Truscott, in response to a series of questions about the alleged incident and a request to release the police report, wrote in an email that he was not in a position to know anything about the case; when asked whether he would provide someone at the university who could answer questions or provide a statement, he responded that “I’m just saying we don’t have any information at this time but will certainly look into it. We don’t have access to police reports, nor does the police department inform anyone of actions such as this.”
As part of a 2015 resolution agreement with the U.S. Department of Education’s Office for Civil Rights, Michigan State police officials are required to inform university officials of such reports “promptly.” According to the resolution: “the university will develop a written protocol between the university police and the university’s Title IX coordinator that outlines how the parties will promptly notify each other when either receives a complaint of sexual or gender-based harassment, assault or violence, and to what extent they will coordinate efforts on behalf of the university to promptly and equitably respond; and how they will document those efforts, including all investigatory steps taken.”
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22467278/mark-dantonio-annual-contract-extension-approved-michigan-state-field-issues-involving-football-program
Meanwhile, MSU’s BoT approved a 1 year extension for Mark Dantonio with little discussion. Dantonio has a rolling 6-year contract that is supposed to get another year added every year. Now his contract lasts through 2024.
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http://www.sportingnews.com/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-college-basketball-recruiting-rankings-2018-news-analysis-acc-big-ten-pac-12-sec-march-madness-bill-self/1cg31s83tibht15das9y00rxky
Mike DeCourcy looks at the evolution of CBB over the past 20 years. Realignment and money has led to more parity within the power leagues and more concentration of talent within those leagues as a group.
This evolutionary revolution has not consisted merely of elite programs being upset by less respected conference opponents. It has been an entire restructuring of the way the sport functions.
The simplest way to put it is this: The worst teams in any major conference no longer stink.*
(*Yes, ACC and Pac-12 fans, we know there are a couple of exceptions.)
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College basketball recruiting gradually has changed within the past two decades, in the same way college athletics has: As programs have flowed to bigger, wealthier and more powerful conferences, the best players have, too.
That has had two significant effects: It has created greater separation between the major conferences and most of those on the next tier, and it has accelerated the competition within those major conferences.
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In 1998, 67 percent of the top 100 prospects – as measured by the Recruiting Services Consensus Index (RSCI) — committed to teams in the nation’s top six conferences: ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, Pac-12.
By 2007, that percentage had increased to 89 percent.
In 2017, it was 95 percent.
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“For the most part, since I’ve been doing this, guys have become more intrigued with going to the highest level,” Evan Daniels, national recruiting analyst for 24/7 Sports, told Sporting News. “I think it’s dangerous, in a way, because I think it always should be about the right fit and not the highest level.
“I think it’s only natural for kids to aspire — and people around the kids to aspire for them — to play at the highest level. But that’s not always the best thing for their basketball growth and development. These kids grow up dreaming to play high-major basketball in a big-time league, and if that opportunity comes about, more often than not they’re going to jump at it.”
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As money has escalated from football television over the past decade, with the major conferences signing significant television deals across the board, schools have looked for places to invest that money. Some of it has gone into basketball facilities, and that has helped draw prospects to those schools.
“The facility gap is just so big right now,” 24/7 Sports recruiting analyst Brian Snow told Sporting News. “Whereas in the past, a kid that was considering Nebraska and Northern Iowa – Northern Iowa’s got good facilities that would be on par with Nebraska back then. Well, now Nebraska’s poured so much money in. They might have the best facilities in the country. That kid and his parents are going to be blown away.”
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https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-college-hoops-corruption-case-poised-take-hall-fame-coaches-top-programs-lottery-picks-224417174.html
Pete Thamel says the CBB scandal will grow exponentially over the next 12-18 months as more details from the FBI’s investigation comes out.
More legal charges still could come, but what’s becoming increasingly clear as the discovery portion of the case comes to a close is that the breadth of potential NCAA rules violations uncovered is wide enough to fundamentally and indelibly alter the sport of college basketball.
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Multiple sources who’ve been briefed on the case and are familiar with the material obtained by feds told Yahoo Sports that the impact on the sport will be substantial and relentless. Sitting under protective order right now are the fruits of 330 days of monitoring activity by the feds, which one assistant US Attorney noted Thursday was “a voluminous amount of material.” That includes wiretaps from 4,000 intercepted calls and thousands of documents and bank records obtained from raids and confiscated computers, including those from notorious NBA agent Andy Miller.
“This goes a lot deeper in college basketball than four corrupt assistant coaches,” said a source who has been briefed on the details of the case. “When this all comes out, Hall of Fame coaches should be scared, lottery picks won’t be eligible to play and almost half of the 16 teams the NCAA showed on its initial NCAA tournament show this weekend should worry about their appearance being vacated.”
There’s a general expectation that this information will be released. It could come in trial, pre-trial motions or released by the government at some point. (No one is certain if they’ve agreed to eventually give it to the NCAA if it doesn’t go public.)
So how bad could be it? In terms of NCAA rules, multiple sources told Yahoo Sports that the material obtained threatens the fundamental structure and integrity of the sport, as there’s potentially as many 50 college basketball programs that could end up compromised in some way.
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There’s a protective order on the evidence found in discovery in all three cases. Whether the information gets out in dribs and drabs or released at once, the consequences are expected to be severe.
The government is not compelled to release the information, according to Daniel Richman, a former federal prosecutor in the Southern District of New York who now teaches at Columbia Law School. “Sometimes never,” he said when asked generally about the timing of the release of information under protective order. He added: “The main sources of release will be in the course of pretrial motions and trial, and/or as related investigations go overt.”
What’s certain is that there’s enough compromising information to rock the sport to its core. There will be thousands of pages of documents, hundreds of hours of wiretaps with the voices of prominent coaches brokering deals with the middlemen, sneaker executives and talent traffickers.
Will it trickle out? Or get released all at once? That’s complicated and procedural. The NCAA’s involvement in this case so far has been minimal. They’ve been in consistent contact with the federal investigators, careful to respect the boundaries of the criminal investigations. Whenever the information is released from under protective order, the NCAA will have to continue to respect the boundaries of the criminal investigations as they begin their own.
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This may be terrible, but it is hardly surprising. Is there anyone in the country who follows college sports who did not know that this has been going on for years?
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22513517/ncaa-denies-louisville-appeal-rules-cardinals-vacate-2013-national-title
It’s official. Louisville is the first NCAA school to have to vacate a national title in men’s basketball in the Final Four era.
The Louisville men’s basketball program will have to vacate its 2013 national championship and 2012 Final Four appearance after the NCAA denied its appeal of what the school described as “Draconian penalties” levied against the team last year.
The NCAA announced its ruling Tuesday. Louisville interim president Greg Postel said in a statement Tuesday that the school still disagrees with the NCAA’s ruling.
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https://twitter.com/theDudeofWV/status/965699946606485504
The Dude of WV is talking expansion again.
Some early Big 12 expansion news…. background info and positioning for the upcoming CFB apocalypse known as 2022-2025.
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Early bird special: strong indication from ESPN/Fox that they are unwilling to pay a premium for the Big 12 for the next TV contract. The exclusive negotiating window opens in late 2023. Looks like first offer will be last offer.
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What that means is the Big 12 must be able to add 2-4 schools that add enough value to keep the B12 in the ballpark with SEC/B1G. That means poaching from the Pac12.
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SEC has interest in OU. ACC covets WVU.
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That exclusive negotiating window will be key for the Big 12. The Big 12’s fate will be decided in 2022-2023.
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Texas can go wherever it wants or indy. I expect ESPN to grease the rails & send OU & UT to the SEC & WVU to the ACC. Just my opinion though.
Every response mocks his claim that the ACC wants WV.
I don’t see ESPN wanting to send UT and OU to an already expensive conference. I also don’t think ESPN can “send” power schools like that anywhere. UT and OU will make their own decisions and ESPN will live with it.
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Obviously the Dude has zero credibility since a basic part of his analysis is always how WVa is coveted by someone – generally the ACC I presume. I can just picture the academics at Duke, UNC, UVa, etc., welcoming WVa. Either the Dude is delusional or he hopes that someone will read his predications and implement his dreams. The ACC academics choked on taking Louisville, but really had to do so to placate FSU and Clemson (and maybe others).
The Dude better hope that the Big 12 does not collapse. His beloved WVa might have a tough time finding a new home, unless it is with other Big 12 leftovers.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22437323/grand-canyon-only-profit-team-division-is-building-monster-desert
A look at Grand Canyon University’s men’s basketball program. They are D-I’s only for profit member and the article examines some of the issue involved with that as well. The P12 tried to delay GCU’s transition from D-II to D-I and ASU still refuses to play them in any sport (only 2 P12 schools have played GCU in hoops).
This is the first year GCU is eligible for the NCAA tournament. They are 4th in the WAC right now so they’d have to win the WAC tournament to make the NCAA tournament
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https://pilotonline.com/sports/college/meac/article_9c33ff0a-d703-568e-83ac-6fa037b8f417.html
Things are getting ugly as Hampton prepares to leave the MEAC for the Big South.
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Because of Delany’s desire to play the BTT in MSG, the B10 is in the final week of the regular season now. The seeds for the BTT aren’t all set yet, obviously, but a lot is known.
Known seed ranges:
1-3. MSU (15-2), OSU (14-3), PU (13-3) – most likely in that order
4-7. NE (12-5), MI (11-5), PSU (9-7), IN (9-8) – MI passes NE if they win out
8. UMD (8-9)
9-10. NW and WI (6-10) – NW and WI play on 2/22
11-14. IL, MN, IA, RU (3-13 except for 3-14 RU)
Tournament info:
Starts next Wednesday (2/28).
W: 11 vs 14, 12 vs 13
Th: 8 vs 9, 5 vs 12/13, 7 vs 10, 6 vs 11/14
F: Quarterfinals (top 4 seeds play their first games: 1 vs 8/9, 2 vs 7/10, etc)
Sa: Semifinals
Su: Final
Then the teams sit around for a week waiting for selection Sunday and then have a few days to prep before the NCAA tournament starts. MSU, PU, OSU and MI are locks to make the NCAA. NE and PSU have outside chances at it.
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Click to access year-in-sports-media-2017.pdf
Nielsen’s annual Year in Sport Media report is out.
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An interview with Lynn Swann. He touches on the P12N among other topics.
Q: When Pat Haden was AD, he talked about the challenge in winning in college baseball for a program like USC. You get equivalency scholarships and USC tuition is different than say UCLA tuition and that makes it harder for USC to recreate what it did in the ’70s. What do you expect year in and year out? They missed the NCAA Tournament the past two years.
A: When you’re not making it to the World Series, when you’re not moving ahead, you have to try to get back, retool, find different ways to coach and compete and get there. That’s what the coach is going to have to do. Players are going to have to do better to be more competitive and work at it. Yeah, we have a little difficulty being a private school and equivalency scholarships and the whole deal, trying to balance out the things of Title IX. So, yes, one of the major ripples of Title IX has been to weaken, shall we say, the structure and being able to get the best potential baseball players like we used to do in the past, but we can’t hold that out as an excuse. We just have to find a way to move forward.
Q: You see it as a real factor?
A: It’s a real factor. You can’t continue to say, ‘OK, that’s our excuse. We don’t have to be that good.’ The idea is you come here, you compete, you’re going to be that good. You build a program, you find a way within the contents of the rules and he scholarships and the finances to build a better team.
Q: One of the ongoing issues in the Pac-12, compared to other conferences nowadays, is the TV deal. The payout SEC teams get is a lot more than the Pac-12 teams get. The Big Ten gets more. Are you concerned at the varying pay discrepancies from what schools from different conferences get from their TV deals?
A: We understand the differences. We understand that our television structure and deal financially doesn’t pay off as much as the others, and we’re in this contract until 2024. Look, the Pac-12 took a gamble, took a risk, creating its own network and we’re in it. It’s silly to rail against it or to throw people under that bus. The people that made the decision at that time felt like it was the right thing to do. Hasn’t worked out as well. All right. Let’s move on and continue to do the best we can. But it’s not something that’s going to get fixed in the next two years.
In part 2 he talks scheduling among other topics.
Q: You play a nine-game conference schedule, and you play Notre Dame, and this year you play Texas, another Power 5 Conference team. Some of the other schools play an eight conference games and maybe FCS or more Group of Five teams in non-conference. Can USC compete for a playoff bid if they’re playing a different set of schedule?
A: Because of time zones, people on the East Coast aren’t really seeing us. We have to play a tougher schedule. If the voters are going to look at four teams to be in the top four, the Pac-12 playing the Pac-12 won’t get it by itself. We have to schedule teams and we have to have that very competitive schedule to be able to get that look. And we’ve got to win those games. So it’s important to have Texas on the schedule. It’s important that Notre Dame is playing well and we play them and we beat them along the way. When I was a student here, I think all four years, the Notre Dame-USC game had an impact on the national polls. It’s to our advantage to have that game on our schedule.
Q: The flip side is that Alabama got in with one loss over Ohio State, a two-loss team, and the committee has used losses as a determining factor, so do you want to make a schedule where you can avoid and try to mitigate losses as much as possible or get as many quality wins as possible?
A: The committee who’s going to vote on this is going to look at strength of schedule. They’re going to look at how you win games. They’re going to look at a lot of factors. They’re going to look at the competition inside your conference, outside your conference, all those kind of things. It won’t ever be just one thing.
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The Federal probe into mens’ bball now includes players at many major colleges including Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina, etc. https://sports.yahoo.com/exclusive-federal-documents-detail-sweeping-potential-ncaa-violations-involving-high-profile-players-schools-103338484.html
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The documents tie some of the biggest names and programs in the sport to activity that appears to violate the NCAA’s amateurism rules. This could end up casting a pall over the NCAA tournament because of eligibility issues. There’s potential impermissible benefits and preferential treatment for players and families of players at Duke, North Carolina, Texas, Kentucky, Michigan State, USC, Alabama and a host of other schools. The documents link some of the sport’s biggest current stars – Michigan State’s Miles Bridges, Alabama’s Collin Sexton and Duke’s Wendell Carter – to specific potential extra benefits for either the athletes or their family members. The amounts tied to players in the case range from basic meals to tens of thousands of dollars.
NCAA president Mark Emmert released a statement Friday morning to address the latest developments in the corruption probe.
“These allegations, if true, point to systematic failures that must be fixed and fixed now if we want college sports in America. Simply put, people who engage in this kind of behavior have no place in college sports. They are an affront to all those who play by the rules,” the statement read. “Following the Southern District of New York’s indictments last year, the NCAA Board of Governors and I formed the independent Commission on College Basketball, chaired by Condoleezza Rice, to provide recommendations on how to clean up the sport. With these latest allegations, it’s clear this work is more important now than ever. The Board and I are completely committed to making transformational changes to the game and ensuring all involved in college basketball do so with integrity. We also will continue to cooperate with the efforts of federal prosecutors to identify and punish the unscrupulous parties seeking to exploit the system through criminal acts.”
An ASM balance sheet in the hands of federal investigators shows accounts through Dec. 31, 2015, with the subheading, “Loan to Players.” It listed several who were in high school or college as receiving four-figure and five-figure payments from ASM Sports. Among the largest listed loans:
* Dennis Smith, who would go on to play at North Carolina State in 2016-17, received $43,500 according to the documents. Another document headed “Pina,” for ASM agent Stephen Pina, says Smith received a total of $73,500 in loans, and includes notes about “options to recoup the money” when Smith did not sign with ASM.
* Isaiah Whitehead, at the time a freshman at Seton Hall, received $26,136 according to the documents. The “Pina” document says Whitehead received $37,657 and was “setting up payment plan.” Whitehead signed with ASM but later left the agency for Roc Nation.
* Tim Quarterman, at the time a junior at LSU, received at least $16,000 according to the balance sheet.
* Diamond Stone, at the time a freshman at Maryland, received $14,303 according to the documents.
* A listing that refers to “BAM” for $12,000 is later identified in the documents as Edrice “Bam” Adebayo, who would go on to play at Kentucky in 2016-17. He did not sign with ASM. There’s a later reference to Adebayo that says he received $36,500. “Bad loan,” reads the document.
* Markelle Fultz, who would go on to play at Washington and become the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, received $10,000 according to the documents. He did not sign with ASM.
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Sounds like Emmert is going to find it hard to find a P6 schools that plays by the rules.
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https://theathletic.com/251101/2018/02/23/michigan-state-has-a-decision-to-make-with-miles-bridges/
The Atlantic looks at MSU’s options since Miles Bridges was one of the named players.
What this boils down to is a few options for Bridges and Michigan State:
1. Conduct an internal review and allow Bridges to play, hoping to make a case that no NCAA violation was committed and that Bridges’ eligibility remains intact. This seems like a highly plausible move, but comes with risk. Any program who plays an individual who could be later investigated by the NCAA and be ruled ineligible is risking those wins being vacated. As one person familiar with the NCAA process told The Athletic’s Dana O’Neil: “For any school on the hook for a national championship, you don’t play a kid unless you want to take a chance of that banner coming down.”
2. Sit Bridges until an NCAA investigation plays out. This is unlikely. All NCAA investigations are currently in line behind the FBI.
3. Michigan State could rule Bridges ineligible, but issue an appeal to the NCAA that he did not know about the impermissible benefits and apply for reinstatement. Bridges would have to sit out during this appeal, but Michigan State could request it be expedited. If Michigan State pursues this scenario, the school could potentially address the situation, safeguard Bridges’ eligibility, still use Bridges in the NCAA Tournament and avoid vacating a potential Final Four appearance or national championship. The NCAA’s Committee on Student-Athlete Reinstatement and its reinstatement staff state that they “attempt to place the student-athlete back in the position he or she would have been prior to the violation occurring while maintaining the integrity of the Association’s values.”
As it stands, Bridges is potentially in violation of Bylaw 12.3 of the NCAA rulebook, where the NCAA notes that “agent violations are considered more serious than general extra benefit violations.” The penalty for accepting extra benefits valued between $300 to $500 is sitting out 30 percent of a team’s games and repaying the gifts. If Bridges were to be suspended for 30 percent of MSU’s games (30, so far), that would amount to nine games. If Bridges and Michigan State proactively accepted that penalty, he would sit out Sunday’s season finale vs. Wisconsin and eight postseason games. (If MSU won the Big Ten tournament — three games — and advanced through the NCAA Tournament, Bridges would be eligible for the national title game.)
UMD’s Diamond Stone and PSU’s DJ Newbill were the only other B10 players (current or former) named.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22555512/explaining-ncaa-college-basketball-scandal-players-coaches-agents
A good summary of the scandal so far (which players and schools have been named, who the various figures involved are, etc).
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22559284/sean-miller-arizona-christian-dawkins-discussed-payment-ensure-deandre-ayton-signing-according-fbi-investigation
If the sources are correct, it looks like Sean Miller’s career as a MBB coach is about to end. The FBI supposedly has wiretaps of him openly discussing paying to get a player.
FBI wiretaps intercepted telephone conversations between Arizona coach Sean Miller and Christian Dawkins, a key figure in the FBI’s investigation into college basketball corruption, in which Miller discussed paying $100,000 to ensure star freshman Deandre Ayton signed with the Wildcats, sources familiar with the government’s evidence told ESPN.
According to people with knowledge of the FBI investigation, Miller and Dawkins, a runner working for ASM Sports agent Andy Miller, had multiple conversations about Ayton. When Dawkins asked Miller if he should work with assistant coach Emanuel “Book” Richardson to finalize their agreement, Miller told Dawkins he should deal directly with him when it came to money, the sources said.
There are around 3000 hours of wiretaps, so a lot of people may be caught redhanded.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22566176/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-pins-sean-miller-decision-arizona-wildcats
The NCAA hopes to have some insight into the eligibility of all the people named so far before selection Sunday.
NCAA president Mark Emmert, addressing the ESPN report that Arizona coach Sean Miller was recorded discussing paying $100,000 to ensure that star recruit Deandre Ayton signed with the Wildcats, said Saturday that it’s up to the school to decide whether to hold out the player or coach.
“First and foremost, that’s a decision the school has to make,” Emmert said in an interview on CBS.
…
Emmert said he hopes the NCAA has a better understanding of the eligibility for current players affected by the FBI investigation by NCAA tournament Selection Sunday, which is March 11.
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/02/world-cup-schedule-nba-countdown-burke/
Fox is going all in on the World Cup despite the US not qualifying.
The FOX broadcast network will televise 38 of the 64 FIFA World Cup matches this summer, a record for an English-language over-the-air network. By comparison, ABC televised ten matches during the last World Cup in 2014. FOX will carry the final six matches of the tournament, including both semifinals and the July 15 final.
FS1 will carry the 26 other matches, highlighted by a pair of quarterfinals on July 6. Because the World Cup is taking place on the other side of the globe, no match will start later than 3 PM ET. The final is set for 11 AM. [Fox Sports PR 2.20]
The time difference may be a big part of this since the games will be in the morning or afternoon and not in primetime.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-jim-delany-big-ten-basketball-schedule-20180223-story.html
Apparently Jim Delany and the B10 have learned their lesson. The condensed hoops schedule needed to play the BTT in MSG a week early will never be repeated.
We told you so, Jim.
That was essentially the message from Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany, who told the Tribune on Friday the conference tournament would return to Madison Square Garden in New York only if the Big Ten can have the premier weekend — the one the Big East has had locked in since 1983.
Why? Because moving this season’s event to MSG required the tournament to move up a week, creating a condensed regular-season schedule that coaches despised. Indiana, for example, played five games during a 12-day span from Jan. 19-30. Illinois just suited up three times in five days.
…
“I know we will be back out East. Where we will be, I don’t know. It won’t be on a regular basis. I expect that 80 percent will be in legacy territory (Chicago and Indianapolis) and probably 20 percent out East, whether it’s in D.C. or Philadelphia or New York.”
Philadelphia, huh?
Delany indicated that the Palestra, which bills itself as the “Cathedral of College Basketball,” is too small with a capacity of 8,725.
…
Delany said about 14,000 tickets have been sold for all sessions, the first of which is Wednesday. Individual tickets go on sale Monday after the bracket is set. Prices range from $20 for early sessions to $135 for top seats to the semifinals and championship game.
Delany views capacity at about 17,000 because MSG officials control the sale of suites, which bump the seating to 19,182.
Last year, in part because Maryland played only one game, the Big Ten tournament in Washington drew just 13,281 fans per session.
Chicago averaged 16,928 at the United Center in 2015. Indianapolis averaged 16,722 in 2016.
The other issue created by the condensed schedule is that the Big Ten’s NCAA tournament teams will be idle for roughly 10 to 14 days.
“It’s interesting,” Delany said. “Nobody has chosen to schedule a Division II or III game in that period. That’s a little indication that they don’t want that or need that. There are positives and negatives (to the gap). Teams can rest up, put new things in and practice more. If we do well (in the tournament), everyone will be OK with it.”
I think it’s wrong for the B10 to be so focused on going East but never consider other cities in the footprint. Why not Minneapolis or St. Louis every now and then to throw a bone to western fans? And while I understand the Palestra being too small for the whole BTT, the smaller capacity might be great for some of the early round games (maybe just Wednesday).
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http://www.omaha.com/sports/blogs/mad-chatter-bruce-rasmussen-has-a-thoughtful-message-for-husker/article_e36edfda-1332-11e8-89e6-c341d32c13f9.html
The NCAA selection committee chair defends the way they use RPI and the quadrant system. It’s a lengthy piece but well worth reading if you care about tournament seeding.
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An article questioning why the FBI is involved in the college basketball “scandal”. https://deadspin.com/who-gives-a-shit-1823260537/amp?__twitter_impression=true
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It’s a federal case because federal laws were broken (wire fraud, money laundering, bribery, corruption, tax evasion, conspiracy).
But the FBI really got pulled in because someone wanted a plea deal.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/explaining-the-fbi-probe-and-the-corruption-scandal-rocking-college-basketball/
It all started with a cooperating witness. How did the FBI manage to get involved in the shrouded world of college recruiting? An unidentified financial advisor (now revealed as Martin Blazer, per multiple reports), who was charged in 2016 by the SEC with fraud, became cooperating witness after those charges were filed. The witness informed the FBI, as means of cooperation, that he could bring light to fraud and corruption in the world of college recruiting because said witness had been party to it in the past.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=400988133
This may be the worst conference game I’ve ever heard about. UH is leading ECU 62-13 at the half. UH is shooting 74% overall (75% from 3) while ECU is only at 22% (12.5% from 3). UH also has the rebounding edge 22-6.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/lsu-reportedly-paying-new-mexico-1-6-million-for-2022-game-in-baton-rouge/
LSU is paying NMSU $1.6M for a home game. These paycheck games are getting really expensive. LSU can easily afford it, but the market is getting pretty high. Fewer schools are going to be able to justify buying a 7th home game as the price approaches $2M.
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Brian – not that they justify the price, but it’s New Mexico, not NMSU.
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What has happened in the past with those payments in the case of a weather-related cancellation? If there is no gate and other proceeds to collect, than doesnt that become a 1.6 MM loss? One wonders if this is also the infamous 3rd Saturday of November game.
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urbanleftbehind,
“What has happened in the past with those payments in the case of a weather-related cancellation?”
Usually there is a clause to cover that. Often it requires rescheduling the game in the near future or a smaller check as a cancellation fee. See the stories about Arkansas State suing Miami because the Hurricanes wouldn’t reschedule their game that was cancelled due to a hurricane last fall. Every OOC game contract includes a cancellation clause.
“If there is no gate and other proceeds to collect, than doesnt that become a 1.6 MM loss?”
Not usually.
“One wonders if this is also the infamous 3rd Saturday of November game.”
Nope. It’s set for 9/10/2022 for now. In fact, LSU has all 4 OOC games set for the next 4 seasons and only in 2018 do they currently have an OOC cupcake set for November. Granted, the SEC schedules for future years aren’t out yet so LSU may plan to move a game to November every year but for 2019-2021 all the games have a set date in September or October. And looking back, LSU hasn’t played an OOC game in November in a while. They’ve gotten a bye on Halloween weekend frequently (the week before playing Alabama) and sometimes had an OOC cupcake before that, but not in November.
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Oops. Sorry.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22589989/michigan-state-miles-bridges-donates-40-charity-resolve-ncaa-violation
It’s funny how Miles Bridges loudly proclaimed that he and his family had done nothing wrong on Sunday and then Monday had to give $40 to charity to resolve a violation by his family.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22597009/longer-3-point-line-experimental-rules-used-nit
The NIT is going to experiment with some new rules this year.
They include:
• A deeper 3-point line. It will be moved back approximately 20 inches to the distance used by FIBA in international competition (22 feet, 1.75 inches).
• A wider free throw lane. It will be extended from 12 to 16 feet, which is used in the NBA.
• Quarters, not halves. The game will still have 40 minutes of game clock, but it will be broken into four 10-minute quarters, which was adopted for the women’s college game in 2015. Two free throws are awarded once a team reaches five fouls each quarter.
• After an offensive rebound, the shot clock will reset to 20 seconds, as opposed to the full 30.
Permanent rule changes to the sport cannot be made until the current two-year cycle ends in May 2019.
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http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/education/article_74af6aea-1c8a-11e8-886f-9f6d2f01efe0.html
Following up on a topic we’ve mentioned off and on for a while, LSU is implementing new policies to prevent future hazing issues.
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http://www.nfl.com/combine
The NFL combine is this weekend.
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https://sportstvratings.com/how-much-bigger-is-espn-than-fs1-october-2017-cable-coverage-estimates-2-2-2/8738/
How big are the various cable networks? This table will tell you.
ESPN leads FS1 by about 3M households (86.8M to 83.8M).
ESPN2 (86.6M) crushes FS2 (56.5M).
The topic network is Food Network with 92.6M homes. 31 channels are ahead of ESPN.
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http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/big10/sports/m-baskbl/auto_original/10154529.jpeg?1519613725
Don’t forget that the BTT starts in about 30 minutes. Expect a lot of empty seats as the B10 foolishly destroyed the entire season schedule to play a week early in MSG. Rutgers plays tonight, so maybe the actual attendance will be decent.
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Speaking of the BTT, it’s no surprise that many folks are unhappy with its timing and location.
https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/columnists/gregg-doyel/2018/02/27/big-ten-tournament-madison-square-garden-greedy-stupid-doyel/373103002/
Gregg Doyel from Indy:
There goes the Big Ten, shamelessly chasing the money again, this time all the way to New York City. It appears to be instinctual, something the Big Ten was born to do, like a dog chasing a squirrel even if the squirrel runs into traffic because SQUIRREL!
https://www.ibj.com/blogs/20-the-score/post/67766-playing-basketball-tourney-on-east-coast-presents-big-challenge-for-big-ten-again
Another view from Indy:
Last year, the conference tournament made its inaugural visit to Washington, D.C., where turnout in the nation’s capital was tepid, to say the least. Attendance was down more than 20 percent from 2016, when the tournament was held in Indianapolis.
So, will interest in Big Ten basketball be any different in the Big Apple? Doubtful, says Dan Dakich, a former Indiana University basketball player and coach who now hosts a local sports-talk show on WFNI-AM 1070.
“I would expect in the New York area, there would be a big-time attendance problem,” he said. “I would think there would be, for most of the games, a ton of empty seats.”
…
“There’s only one reason why they’re going to Madison Square Garden, and it’s money,” he said. “When they added Rutgers and Maryland, the Big Ten became relevant on the East Coast.”
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/terps/tracking-the-terps/bs-sp-big-ten-new-york-0227-story.html
The Baltimore Sun isn’t as upset.
A year after there was more than a 20 percent drop in attendance at the Verizon Center — in part because the Terps exited after a quarterfinal defeat to Northwestern — the numbers could dip even more this week.
Delany told the Tribune that 14,000 seats have sold for each session in an arena that will accommodate 17,000 for the event. As often happens, thousands have been scooped up by ticket brokers.
Mark Turgeon seems positive about it.
During the Big Ten teleconference Monday, Maryland coach Mark Turgeon said he and his counterparts understood what was at stake from the beginning. He knows the tight schedule affected a team struggling with injuries and depth problems most of the season.
“I think we had to do it as a league. We wanted to get to New York. We owed it Rutgers,” Turgeon said. “It was something we had to do. I don’t think anyone’s blaming Jim or anything. It was something we all agreed to do, we wanted to do.
…
Still, Turgeon said Monday that he and his players are “jacked up” about going to the Garden.
“[It’s] the greatest venue in the world,” Turgeon said. “Of course we’ll have a ton of fans, we should, that love basketball up in that area. We’re expecting a good crowd. Thursday afternoon’s tough. I think it’s exciting for everybody. Playing in the Garden. Being in New York. I think it’s terrific. We’ve had some success up in New York. I know we’re fired up and ready to go.”
I think the actual attendance is going to be way down again, probably lower than last year (2017 was 20% down from normal). And despite what Delany says, MSG seats 19,000 not 17,000. Just because MSG controls the sales of the luxury seats doesn’t mean they don’t exist.
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New post topic 🙂
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http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-gonzaga-mountain-west-sdsu-20180228-story.html
Some actual conference realignment news. The MWC confirms it has been in talks with Gonzaga about leaving the WCC for the MWC.
“Since August,” Thompson said, “I have spoken to six university presidents and/or athletic directors that have called inquiring about whether we are going to expand, and the Zags are one of them.
“I guess the adjective I’d use is exploratory. Truthfully, what we’re trying to do here is better ourselves and we’re trying to understand what are your goals and ambitions, and what are the Mountain West’s goals and ambitions. Is there something there? … But obviously, they would enhance our basketball enterprise.”
Gonzaga might not be alone, either. Thompson said BYU was not among the other schools that have contacted him about expansion, but several sources indicated that BYU — which went independent in football in 2011 and plays in the WCC in most other sports — would consider a return to the Mountain West at least in basketball if Gonzaga joins.
The issue is expected to be a topic when WCC athletic directors and presidents gather at the conference basketball tournament later this week in Las Vegas.
…
It is an open secret that Gonzaga has become increasingly frustrated in the WCC, in a sense subsidizing the rest of the conference with its financial shares from its 19 straight trips to the NCAA Tournament. It is the WCC’s largest source of revenue and typically is split evenly among conference members, meaning bottom-feeders get the same cut as the team that earns them.
…
The question now becomes whether Gonzaga Athletic Director Mike Roth is merely rattling his saber to cut a better financial deal within the WCC, or whether he’s serious about leaving and forming a West Coast version of the Big East, filled with big arenas and big basketball budgets.
…
But it’s not just Roth. Several sources said Gonzaga coach Mark Few is involved in the Mountain West discussions and intrigued by the possibility, particularly if BYU follows. Adding those two schools, and assuming San Diego State, UNLV and New Mexico can return to their past levels, could elevate the Mountain West to the premier basketball conference in the western third of the country — at least on par if not ahead of the Pac-12.
Would landing Gonzaga require a separate slice of TV rights fees, like Boise State gets in football?
“That’s one of the details,” Thompson said. “That’s one of the issues that’s been talked around but not through.”
BYU would be an interesting partner. It makes all the sense in the world for the MWC if there are no hurt feelings from BYU going independent. You have to wonder how long BYU would remain independent in football if this happens. Certainly the MWC would want a similar deal with BYU as the ACC has with ND at the least (mandatory X games per year and you can’t join any other conference).
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If BYU balks, and Rice (as Frank has mentioned) is found wanting, would this be a one-add without a partner? I dont know if any of the California WCCs or Grand Canyon (a market the WAC abdicated when ASU left for the PAC) really stand out, overshadowed by nearby Pac-12 members. I suppose a lower Texas school, public or private (Incarnate Word?) might make sense.
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Isn’t the Mountain West an 11-team basketball/other sports league (12 for football with Hawaii). If so, adding just Gonzaga seems perfect.
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hankcarf,
“Isn’t the Mountain West an 11-team basketball/other sports league (12 for football with Hawaii). If so, adding just Gonzaga seems perfect.”
You’re correct.
The issue is that BYU is already an odd fit in many ways for the WCC. BYU has 34,000 students while the next largest WCC school has 10,000. It’s also the only school not in a coastal state (7 of the 10 are in CA). If Gonzaga leaves, one has to wonder if the WCC would rather drop BYU as well and perhaps look for members that would be better fits. Likewise, BYU may want a better home for its teams that will draw better revenue and exposure.
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Good point. I’m not a BYU fan, but I’d rather see them in a better situation.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/wire?section=ncb&id=22608751
The B10 didn’t announce attendance officially, but reporters provided estimates.
When the Hawkeyes and Illini tipped off at 5:30 p.m. local time there were about 3,000 fans in the lower bowl of the Garden, though it was about double by the end. Rutgers and Minnesota played the nightcap.
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The B10 claims attendance of 14,681 for yesterday. That’s better than last year in DC but otherwise the worst since 2009. And nobody who was in the building believes it was more than 10,000.
Click to access BTTRecords.pdf
Here are the B10’s official BTT attendance stats (see page 71).
Session 1:
Over 20k – 1998, 2001
18-20k – 1999, 2002, 2005, 2013, 2014
16-18k – 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2016
15k – 2004
14k – 2010, 2018
13k – 2008, 2017
12k – 2009
2017 was the worst year ever when averaged over all the sessions. 2009 was also sub-14,000 and those are the only years below 15,000.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/aac-power-six-push-ucf-title-claim-irritate-at-least-some-group-of-five-brethren/
The other G5 conferences are getting annoyed with the AAC’s “Power 6” push and other claims.
Sean Frazier, Northern Illinois’ chatty athletic director, recently slammed the American Athletic Conference (AAC), for portraying itself as a power league along with the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC.
Frazier said claims of dominance by the AAC trivialize the efforts of other Group of Five programs in the Sun Belt, Mountain West, Conference USA and MAC.
…
“What it does is marginalize the Mountain West,” Frazier said. “It marginalizes our conference. [The AAC] doesn’t have the data set to prove that. Most of those schools don’t have a history of winning. They don’t have a history of winning like Northern Illinois, Boise State.”
…
“Don’t try to bully the committee,” Frazier said of UCF. “That’s what these guys are doing now. If you want to put a banner up that says ‘national championship,’ God bless you. You can do that. I’ve got no problem with [White] doing that. But to say they should have been in the final four is an unrealistic expectation.”
…
AAC commissioner Mike Aresco responded to Frazier’s comments, telling CBS Sports that “‘Power Six’ is no longer a mere narrative. It reflects a reality based on our results and facts that speak for themselves. The fans spoke up for UCF, which proved its case.
“Our focus remains the same: to compete at the highest level of college sports. Our Power Six campaign is about us, not about anyone else.”
Frazier is steadfast in his belief.
“So I’m supposed to give them [respect] because they’ve got some false narrative of P6? No,” Frazier said. “I think people know that. That’s the reason they don’t have a [Power Five designation] now is those teams have not historically been good in football. That’s why there is a Big East basketball and American in football. [The market] looked at the football, and they were horrible. That was the difference.”
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/look-michigan-features-ohio-state-legends-in-wolverine-recruiting-materials/
It’s a little weird to see UM touting the success of OSU players in the NFL, but that’s the world we live in. Having hired OSU’s former OL coach, UM listed his success and his current players in the NFL which are all from OSU. That seems odd for recruiting materials.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/watch-texas-a-m-chancellor-gifts-jimbo-fisher-future-national-championship-plaque/
TAMU’s chancellor presented Jimbo FIsher with a national championship plaque and told him he can fill in the year later. Hubris anyone?
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Having two sons who went to FSU (the third is Badger) , I can tell you that the FSU faithful were pretty happy to see Jimbo leave, even before he acted like such a jerk. The general feeling was that Jimbo was no longer of top of things.
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All hat, no cattle.
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Like the still-vacant trophy case in Blacksburg for Virginia Tech’s first national football championship.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/
Intentionally or not, MLB’s baseballs have been juiced since mid-2015.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22616244/sean-miller-arizona-wildcats-coach-denies-report-discussed-paying-recruit
Sean Miller denies everything. He never talked about paying a recruit and never talked to Dawkins until after Ayton had announced his decision to attend UA.
Miller said in his first public comments since the report that he never knowingly violated NCAA rules and said he has never paid a recruit — “I never have, and I never will.”
“I also understand that there is an ongoing federal investigation, and because of this, I cannot do anything that might compromise the integrity of this investigation,” Miller said. “However, on this point, I cannot remain silent in light of media reports that have impugned the reputation of me, the university and sullied the name of a tremendous young man, Deandre Ayton.”
…
“Let me be very, very clear: I have never discussed with Christian Dawkins paying Deandre Ayton to attend the University of Arizona,” Miller said. “In fact, I never even met or spoke to Christian Dawkins until after Deandre publicly announced he was coming to our school. Any reporting to the contrary is inaccurate, false and defamatory.”
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http://www.espn.com/moresports/story/_/id/22616192/dave-duerson-act-passes-committee-advances-illinois-house-vote
IL could become the first state to ban youth tackle football. The Dave Duerson Act passed out of the IL House mental health committee 11-9 so it now heads to the full House for debate. The DDA would ban organized tackle football for kids under 12.
HB 4341, also called the Dave Duerson Act, would prohibit any child under 12 from participating in organized tackle football. The measure passed out of the Illinois House mental health committee on an 11-9 vote Thursday and now heads to the House for a full debate and vote.
The bill needed 11 votes for passage.
Illinois is one of four states — New York, California and Maryland are the others — to introduce legislation regulating tackle football.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22626454/ncaa-football-rules-committee-proposes-kickoff-rule-make-touchbacks-easier
The NCAA football rules committee is proposing a significant change to kickoffs.
The NCAA Football Rules Committee announced it has proposed a new rule that would allow players to call for a fair catch inside their own 25-yard line on kickoffs and have it result in a touchback, giving their team the ball at the 25.
“The committee discussed the kickoff play at great length, and we will continue to work to find ways to improve the play,” said North Carolina coach Larry Fedora, the chair of the committee. “We believe making one change will allow us to study the effect of this change in terms of player safety.”
The potential change, which was made with player safety in mind, will be sent to coaches and conferences for feedback in the coming weeks. It still needs to be approved by the NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel, which is scheduled to discuss it — and other proposed rule changes — April 13.
This is aimed at the strategic short kickoff that many teams use in an attempt to tackle the returner inside the 25, but I don’t know if it will have a huge impact or not. I assume top kick returners will still gamble on making a big return often enough to be worth the risk. Maybe this mostly helps teams with a poor return unit since they can guarantee they get the ball on the 25.
It seems like they should just take the final step and eliminate the kickoff. Just give teams the ball on the 25. The only exception would be the onside kick. You’d lose the ability to have a surprise onside kick, but it would save a lot of hits. Maybe you still allow KO returns in the final 5 minutes of each half for the excitement, but that would still mean a lot fewer risks.
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https://collegebasketball.ap.org/article/ap-interview-emmert-changes-needed-not-paying-players
Mark Emmert gave a long interview to the AP.
NCAA President Mark Emmert is hopeful the scandal roiling college basketball will lead to major rule changes, but schools paying players is likely a nonstarter.
…
Emmert said NCAA enforcement cannot investigate anything directly related to the [FBI] case without the approval of prosecutors.
“It can be frustrating, of course, but that is the way we go about that,” Emmert said.
…
The relationship between agents and players is one of four major components of the Rice commission’s work.
College hockey and baseball players can have business relationships with agents in high school without risking eligibility because professional leagues draft those players out of high school. Emmert said those rules might be used to guide college basketball reform.
…
“I haven’t heard any universities say that they want to change amateurism to move into a model where student athletes are paid by universities and universities are negotiating with agents for their relationships with a school,” Emmert said. “I would be surprised if the commission came forward with that kind of recommendation.”
Emmert said allowing athletes to earn money for things such as endorsements from outside sources is worthy of consideration.
“There’s a lot of discussion about the Olympic model and think it’s well deserving of serious consideration inside the context of college sports,” he said.
…
Emmert said the NCAA’s enforcement model, which relies upon cooperation between the schools and NCAA staff, works in most cases but as stakes have risen, high-profile cases have become more contentious.
“We’ve asked the commission to bring forward a recommendation saying we need a different approach for these 5 or 10 percent of cases, at the most, that are very high-profile where people are now in a much more adversarial position than they are when they are dealing with other issues. And how can that be done because the current model of a cooperative investigation and engagement breaks down very quickly. We’re trying very hard to get the commission to bring forth recommendations on that, too,” Emmert said.
The Olympic model is a way to get some players some money, but I don’t think it would significantly reduce the amount of cheating going on. It would also strongly favor some schools over others.
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Definitely. Boosters at big schools would provide endorsements. It would be every bit as dirty as now, if not more so, for football and men’s basketball.
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Athletes should be allowed to do anything a regular student can do, like hold any outside job, make endorsements, take time off from classes, and transfer freely between schools without penalties.
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bob sykes,
“Athletes should be allowed to do anything a regular student can do, like hold any outside job, make endorsements, take time off from classes, and transfer freely between schools without penalties.”
That’s utterly unworkable for amateur athletics. You’d have pro teams facing each other.
* Athletes can hold outside jobs as their schedule allows, they just have to actually do the work and get paid the same as anyone else doing that job.
* They can take time off from classes, too, it just doesn’t make much sense for an athlete since their physical skills get rusty. Nothing prevents an athlete from taking a year or two off and then returning, though. In fact many LDS athletes do just that.
* They are working on improving the transfer rules and an athlete can already transfer freely now. They just can’t get an athletic scholarship right away in a couple of sports. Truly open transfers would mean pure free agency with 85 scholarship players all year long every year. It would be a nightmare for players, coaches and recruits. The new rules are likely to stop schools from blocking certain destinations or being able to not release a player. They may also turn the year delay into a redshirt year so it doesn’t cost eligibility. Nobody wants to eliminate all “costs” for transferring because they see how messy it already is for hoops and football would be a nightmare with 85 man rosters.
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First, any number of schools have said that they will not pay athletes – and I believe them.
The moment that star football and basketball players start collecting endorsement money, there will be huge resentment by teammates. How will a guy who is an all conference lineman feel about his college QB gets $100,000 or more, while the lineman gets zero? I am not talking about one of the few linemen who make the NFL, just a really good college player.
This is not the difference between an NFL star making $20 million, while the lineman “suffers” by making only $2 million. This is about a kid with plenty of cash in his pocket and driving a new car, while his teammate walks around with a $10 bill in his pocket. Maybe the star finds that his parents get a new house, while the other kid’s family lives in their apartment in a lousy neighborhood. Will that work in a college setting?
That also ignores the inevitable Title IX litigation. That will be fun, no doubt.
Since so many NBA players are upset and making comments, let the NBA fund its own minor leagues, just like minor league baseball. Let the NBA puts it money where its collective mouths are. LeBron James can afford to pay for a team. With the exception of a couple of schools that live on one and done players, no one will much notice if those kids never sign with a college.
I expect that not that many players would play minor league in any event. Yes, a handful of super stars may want one more year of seasoning. Then there will be the kids who do not want to attend school in any event, but are stuck. The really good player who realizes that he will not make the NBA should value schools more than a couple of years of minor league basketball money.
I also agree with Brian in that at some schools, there will be no limits on available funds for players. I would imagine that a second string lineman at Alabama will be paid a good chunk of change by some booster to be one of many representatives of his chain of car dealerships. That would pretty much end the idea of college sports.
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Jersey Bernie,
“First, any number of schools have said that they will not pay athletes – and I believe them.”
Agreed. That’s why the endorsement model is one of the only plausible routes to athletes making money. But that model is full of problems as you explained. Some likeness models might have fewer issues (the whole team gets paid if the school uses or licenses a team photo) but might emphasize other issues (Title IX for example).
“The moment that star football and basketball players start collecting endorsement money, there will be huge resentment by teammates. How will a guy who is an all conference lineman feel about his college QB gets $100,000 or more, while the lineman gets zero? I am not talking about one of the few linemen who make the NFL, just a really good college player.
This is not the difference between an NFL star making $20 million, while the lineman “suffers” by making only $2 million. This is about a kid with plenty of cash in his pocket and driving a new car, while his teammate walks around with a $10 bill in his pocket. Maybe the star finds that his parents get a new house, while the other kid’s family lives in their apartment in a lousy neighborhood. Will that work in a college setting?”
Some have proposed that any model where students can make something puts the money in a trust fund available after 4 years or graduation with limited ability to draw from it before that. That might help with this issue but I think it could be legally problematic.
“That also ignores the inevitable Title IX litigation. That will be fun, no doubt.”
I don’t think endorsements would be impacted by Title IX. T9 is about institutions that receive federal funding providing equal opportunities. Private entities can hire anyone they want to endorse their business without issue. T9 would probably be a huge roadblock to directly paying players, though.
“Since so many NBA players are upset and making comments, let the NBA fund its own minor leagues, just like minor league baseball. Let the NBA puts it money where its collective mouths are. LeBron James can afford to pay for a team. With the exception of a couple of schools that live on one and done players, no one will much notice if those kids never sign with a college.”
To be fair, one thing LeBron said was that the NBA needs to keep growing its G league (it’s 27-team minor league). Hoops players can also go overseas to play professionally and some have rather than go to college. College has been trying to get the NBA to drop the one and done rule for a long time and I think the NBA and NBAPA are coming around.
“I expect that not that many players would play minor league in any event. Yes, a handful of super stars may want one more year of seasoning. Then there will be the kids who do not want to attend school in any event, but are stuck. The really good player who realizes that he will not make the NBA should value schools more than a couple of years of minor league basketball money.”
Yes, the lack of money is a drawback. But it tells us something about the true value of these players separate from the universities. The standard G-league deal pays about $25,000 per year while a G league/NBA deal (player can be called up at will) gets $50,000-$75,000. And no minor league in football has ever been successful. Variant leagues like the CFL or Arena League have survived, but no true NFL minor league. That again says something about the true free market value of the players. The real issue is the 3 year rule the NFL and NFLPA have.
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http://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/03/ohio_state_basketball_suffers.html#incart_river_index
A rare midwestern media voice that says the BTT in MSG wasn’t terrible.
* I came here with the plan of writing about how dumb this was. Had a good anecdote for the story and everything.
When I was walking in on Saturday, I overhead a man ask a ticket scalper, “Who is playing today?” “Michigan State and Michigan,” scalper said.
The man and his lady companion walked a few steps away from the scalper when she said, “Michigan State and who?”
Would’ve been perfect. But you don’t need to read another take like that. Would just be telling you painfully obvious things about the absurdity of playing the conference tournament hundreds of miles away from most of the people who care about the league.
* The truth is, this was pretty cool. The crowds were good. The semifinal games on Saturday sold out with 19,812 in Madison Square Garden. This place was jumping for both Michigan schools. The Penn State-Ohio State crowd on Friday was good, and Rutgers won a couple games to the get “hometown” folks buzzing a little bit. It worked.
The total attendance for the 2016 tournament in Indianapolis was 117,051. Through the semifinals here, the total attendance was 118,520. If it’s Penn State vs. Michigan in the final on Sunday, I’d expect another sellout. Might be sold out either way. People showed up. Helps that a billion people live in this city.
* It was cool for the players who got to play on this stage. And yes, cool for media members like me who got paid to cover it. The fact that many in the Midwest who otherwise could have gone to the tournament in Indy or Chicago couldn’t make it here is not lost on me. That sucks.
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Click to access BTTRecords.pdf
The B10’s claimed attendance (tickets sold) in box scores:
Round 1 – 14,681 (down from norm)
Round 2 – 13,815/13,996 (down from norm)
Round 3 – 14,260/14,530 (down from norm)
Semifinals – 19,812 (sell out; up from norm)
Finals (assumed) – 19,812 (sell out; up from norm)
Previous attendance is in the link. The sellouts are the first since 2014 although 2016 came close.
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/3/4/17077616/big-ten-tournament-2018-madison-square-garden-new-york-city
A blogger from NW claims the BTT being a week early in MSG worked out well for the B10.
It turns out Big Ten basketball and New York City are more compatible than we thought.
Thanks to strong fan turnout, the aura of an unrivaled venue, and a conveniently high number of competitive games, commissioner Jim Delany’s oft-criticized decision to bring the conference tournament to the Big Apple has become a lot more defensible after watching the action unfold. Even the most adamant critics of the event’s location would have to concede that the past four days at Madison Square Garden have been a fantastic spectacle of college hoops.
…
Afterwards, both coaches acknowledged the difficulty of the condensed conference schedule, but said the experience of playing at MSG made it all worthwhile.
“Once you got to Madison Square Garden, the thrill of playing in an arena like this was special,” said MSU’s Tom Izzo. “The memory of playing here will be important to our guys as they go through life.”
Throughout the week, players from every team expressed their appreciation and excitement for the chance to compete at an arena they grew up watching some of the sport’s biggest games take place in. But if you didn’t take their word for it, you could see it on their faces whenever a big play was made. The passion and energy level were through the roof in every round, with big dunks or clutch threes leading to flexes and yells of emotion.
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Thereby reminding everyone why Delany and the B1G powers that be why sucky Rutgers sports were a worthwhile addition to the league. Maybe the B1G tournament should come back again at some point.
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I wouldn’t go that far. That’s the only piece I’ve seen that was anywhere near that positive about the BTT in MSG.
Responding to things said in those 2 articles:
1. The attendance for Wednesday-Friday was worse than in Chicago and Indy. The final total may turn out to be decent because MSG is slightly larger and the last 3 games sold out but W-F host a lot more games (10). The B10 skews the numbers by combining 2 games into 1 session on W-F and then reporting average session attendance.
Doing a quick comparison, this year was down 6% from the average of the 2 years with 14 teams held in Indy and Chicago. Last year was down more like 20%, so this was a big improvement over that but it’s hard to call it strong attendance in my opinion. Basically this year matched the average of the 3 previous years including the terrible attendance in DC.
2. There were a lot of close games, but many of them contained bad basketball. I’m not sure that’s exposure the B10 wants.
3. Players are always attracted to anything new and different (uniforms, etc). I don’t think they were really that impressed with MSG so much as playing in the NBA arena in downtown NYC. MSG means more to older people who remember when it was important. What important games have been played there in these guys’ lifetime? The Knicks have stunk the whole time. Some OOC games, Big East tourney and NCAA tournament games have been payed there, but not a Final Four.
There is no way that playing the BTT in MSG in and of itself justifies adding RU. There are arguments to make for RU including some B10 exposure in NYC but we all know the primary goal was money in the form of TV and future out-of-state student tuition. NYC will never embrace the B10 because there is too much else going on there and the B10 is too far away.
Playing the occasional BTT in NYC isn’t a problem for me (screwing up the schedule to do it a week early was, but even Delany admitted that was wrong) but nothing from this year shows that the BTT did better in NYC than in true B10 country. It’s not like the B10 gained thousands of new fans from this – just a different group of alumni and fans got to attend.
As far as exposure goes, I’ve heard and seen (from the national media) more mocking of the B10 for playing a week early than any excitement or extra coverage over them playing in MSG. Basically, the people who are going to be B10 fans already are and the others aren’t going to convert based on where the BTT is played.
I continue to believe that the tournament should mostly be played in Indy & Chicago (Indy hosts better but the split is fine). If the B10 wants to move the BTT around, then it should also go west on occasion. Try St. Louis and Minneapolis sometime. How about letting Omaha have a shot since Nebraska is also a newcomer? Maybe let Detroit/Cleveland/Cincinnati/Columbus/Pittsburgh have a chance. Only taking trips to the east is part of the problem the midwestern fans have with Delany’s recent plans.
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Do not forget that there was a major storm in the New York area at the end of this past week. I do not know the impact on attendance, but there must have been some. Rutgers in the B1G was to get NY exposure and for the many fans in the area. That is the TV money. With a TV market of more than 20 million people, NY does not have to embrace the B1G, just tolerate it.
Exposure also includes NY papers, TV stations etc. While it might be “fair” to hold the tournament in Omaha, how many B1G alums are there within a fifty of seventy-five radius of Omaha? How many do you think are within 50 miles of MSG. How many major media and financial people and institutions are in Ohama, or for that matter Minneapolis or St. Louis? More than in Omaha, but not compared to NYC (or Chicago).
I get staying in Chicago, or even Indianapolis. Once you leave those two, you might as well go to DC or NYC.
I don’t believe that these kids were not really excited to play in MSG in the heart of NYC.
The need to compress the schedule is a good reason not to go back to MSG. Beyond that, it would be a great place to go regularly to showcase the B1G brand.
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Jersey Bernie,
“Do not forget that there was a major storm in the New York area at the end of this past week. I do not know the impact on attendance, but there must have been some.”
The midwest faces storms too. I can only go by the numbers, especially since I didn’t see any writers mention the weather as a factor. It’s not like NYC was shut down by the storm. MSG drew decent attendance, better than DC did, but a little less than Indy and Chicago.
Rutgers in the B1G was to get NY exposure and for the many fans in the area. That is the TV money. With a TV market of more than 20 million people, NY does not have to embrace the B1G, just tolerate it.
“Exposure also includes NY papers, TV stations etc.”
It includes those everywhere, not just NYC. The B10 gained coverage in NYC, it received a little less in the midwest as fewer local reporters and bloggers could go. Add in being the wrong weekend and it’s not clear the B10 netted more exposure (especially if you don’t count the negative stories about being in NYC a week early) this year than in previous years.
“While it might be “fair” to hold the tournament in Omaha, how many B1G alums are there within a fifty of seventy-five radius of Omaha?”
Midwestern fans travel in the region. In 2014 Omaha drew similar numbers for the B10 baseball tournament to what MSG just drew for hoops. I think hoops would do just fine.
“How many do you think are within 50 miles of MSG.”
Don’t know. Delany’s estimate are inflated garbage as includes the whole east coast. It’s maybe in the neighborhood of 350,000. But it doesn’t matter if they won’t travel (50 miles in the NYC vicinity is a much different trip than 50 miles in the midwest) or don’t care about the games. Besides, it’s irrelevant. Alumni that care about hoops are already exposed to coverage of every BTT because they follow B10 hoops.
“How many major media and financial people and institutions are in Ohama, or for that matter Minneapolis or St. Louis?”
I couldn’t possibly care less. That’s not a basis for choosing BTT sites. Travel considerations for players and fans are.
“More than in Omaha, but not compared to NYC (or Chicago).”
And yet bringing the BTT to the new members was one of Delany’s claimed primary motivators. Omaha is the nearest city for a new member.
“I get staying in Chicago, or even Indianapolis. Once you leave those two, you might as well go to DC or NYC.”
Except for the millions and millions of B10 alumni and fans in the midwest as opposed to on the coast. Every major city in the midwest has more total B10 fans than NYC. Hell, why not hold it in Los Angeles next if all they want is media attention? The B10 has lots of alumni on the west coast, too.
“I don’t believe that these kids were not really excited to play in MSG in the heart of NYC.”
Why would they be? They play in NBA arenas every year and MSG isn’t a particularly great facility.
“The need to compress the schedule is a good reason not to go back to MSG. Beyond that, it would be a great place to go regularly to showcase the B1G brand.”
How does all the mockery the B10 took this year for playing in NYC count as showcasing anything? Most people are only exposed to any P5 conference tournament via the media (TV and local newspapers). The location doesn’t greatly impact the exposure.
Like I said, I’m not against going east on occasion. I fail to see any actual benefits from doing it beyond letting the fans and alumni in the area have a local tournament. That’s why heading west once or twice makes as much sense. Indy/Chicago provides a much more neutral environment that is exponentially easier to reach for the vast majority of B10 alumni and fans.
If the B10 insists on a rotation of sites, I’d suggest the following maximum spread over 10 years:
Indy – 3
Chicago – 3
NYC/DC/Philadelphia – 2
Detroit/Cleveland/Columbus/Pittsburgh – 1
Minneapolis/St. Louis (and Omaha just once ever) – 1
Chicago
East
Indy
Chicago
West
Indy
Chicago
East
Midwest
Indy
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https://www.iheart.com/podcast/139-Softy-Interviews-27882152/episode/pac-12-commissioner-larry-scott-tells-us-29021956/
A 15 minute interview of Larry Scott talking about several things P12 and the P12N.
4 main points (copied from Jon Wilner’s newsletter but I removed Wilner’s comments):
1. On whether he’s pleased with the Pac-12 Networks:
“Very satisfied with a lot of what’s been achieved … but it hasn’t reached its full potential. We haven’t gotten full distribution — most notably on DirecTV — and, related, we haven’t generated as much money as is possible.”
2. On adopting an eight-game conference football schedule.
“We’ve discussed eight but there’s pretty strong resolve that nine is the way to go.”
3. On the standoff with DirecTV remaining in place for the foreseeable future.
“That’s the way it looks. I’ve got no reason to believe that’s going to change. We’ve tried a lot of different angles with them, including a relationship with AT&T and offering benefits on campuses, and that hasn’t gotten it done.”
4. On “engineering” the football schedule.
“The attitude has been pretty pure about how we schedule: non-conference games at the beginning of the season, for the most part … But in this world of the College Football Playoff, that will be re-evaluated.
“That is something we’re going to discuss going forward: Should there be more tactical thought that goes into when you get byes, that goes into when you might play a weak non-conference opponent? … We have not usually engineered our schedule that way. (But) we’re constantly re-evaluating things.”
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http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/22655913/james-pitaro-named-new-president-espn
ESPN has a new president.
James Pitaro is the new president of ESPN and the co-chair of Disney Media Networks, the company announced Monday.
Pitaro had been the chairman of Disney Consumer Products and Interactive Media since 2016. He was formerly a vice president and head of Yahoo! Media, including leading Yahoo! Sports. His appointment is effective immediately.
…
Among the first orders of business for Pitaro is the launch of ESPN+, the network’s direct-to-consumer subscription streaming service, which debuts in the spring. ESPN+ will be part of the ESPN App, which will house all of the company’s digital offerings, including news, scores, highlights and authenticated streams of ESPN’s domestic U.S. networks.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22615784/nba-making-plans-get-involved-high-school-level-once-again-espn
It sounds like Adam Silver definitely wants to end “one and done” and change how the NBA deals with HS athletes.
A plan is expected to include the NBA starting relationships with elite teenagers while they are in high school, providing skills to help them develop both on and off the court. It would ultimately open an alternate path to the NBA besides playing in college and a way 18-year-olds could earn a meaningful salary either from NBA teams or as part of an enhanced option in the developmental G League, sources said.
The NBA is focusing on getting involved in two important periods in which they currently have minimal contact with prospects: the high school years and the time between high school graduation and when a young player is physically and emotionally ready to join the NBA.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-loyola-ncaa-tournament-haugh-20180305-story.html
Loyola (Chicago) made the NCAA for the first time in 33 years by winning the MVC tournament. This article looks at what Loyola’s season means for other hoops programs in the Chicago area.
I’ll leave in the mention of the 2 B10 schools plus DePaul (because this is Frank’s blog).
DePaul: The clock is ticking louder than ever
At least it should be. Every Blue Demons fan or alumnus has the right to wonder why DePaul can’t turn its program into a source of pride the way Loyola has. Every bit of pressure applied to athletic director Jean Lenti Ponsetto after seeing Loyola make the NCAA tournament is appropriate.
Selection Sunday hasn’t mattered at DePaul since 2004. That’s embarrassing for a school that once enjoyed such a rich basketball tradition, but not even Loyola’s success figures to shake the status quo in Lincoln Park.
For reasons hard to grasp, Lenti Ponsetto enjoys job security rare for an athletic director whose marquee program continues to fail. From whiffing on Jerry Wainwright and Oliver Purnell to rehiring Dave Leitao, the DePaul AD escapes accountability many of her peers can’t avoid. Chances are the university hierarchy, led by new President A. Gabriel Esteban, will view Loyola’s emergence as a testament to the patience shown Moser, who won only 32 games over his first three seasons with the Ramblers.
Leitao has won 29 in the same period during his second tour. While president at Seton Hall, Esteban saw coach Kevin Willard post losing records in two of his first three seasons before achieving Big East consistency. One can almost predict Lenti Ponsetto’s talking points if she ever addresses the sad state of the DePaul program, which has a shiny, new building but the same old, tired results.
Illinois: More in-state competition for talent looms.
Coach Brad Underwood experienced a fairly typical first season full of mixed results. Offensively, the Illini lacked the proper personnel to execute his system, struggling to finish 10th in the Big Ten in field-goal percentage. Defensively, they established more of an identity, leading the conference in steals with a swarming style that bodes well. The continued development of Trent Frazier and the arrival of Morgan Park’s Ayo Dosunmu offer the Illini reasons for hope. Underwood shows promise, but recruiting Chicago and the rest of the state just got a little tougher.
Much the way Butler emerged in Indiana to give in-state recruits another option besides Indiana, Purdue and Notre Dame, Loyola threatens to become a player in recruiting capable of landing homegrown talent. Look at Ingram and NBA player Milton Doyle, the Marshall product who transferred to Loyola from Kansas. They paved the local lane for Lucas Williamson of Young and Cameron Krutwig from Jacobs. The Loyola roster includes four contributors who prepped in Illinois — enough to get the Illini’s attention.
Northwestern: The honeymoon is over
The darlings of March only 358 days ago, the Wildcats just quietly ended an underachieving season as forgettable as last year was memorable. Complacency wore purple this winter as Northwestern rested on its laurels, expecting its NCAA tournament pedigree to matter and it didn’t. The Wildcats spent so much time living in the past that they neglected the present, something they will regret forever in the future. Now, in a market swallowed by pro sports, Northwestern basketball finds itself back in a familiar position of fighting for relevance — with Loyola suddenly making bigger headlines.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22678988/ncaa-tops-1-billion-revenue-first
The NCAA topped $1B in revenue for the first time last year.
The $1.06 billion in revenue from September 2016 through August 2017 is reported in audited financials the organization released on Wednesday.
The majority of the revenue came from its usual source — the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. The NCAA pulled in $761 million from the 2017 NCAA tournament. That number is set to rise to $869 million this year.
The NCAA also generated $129.4 million in ticket revenue and $60 million in marketing rights for the 2017 fiscal year.
The NCAA’s expenses were $956 million. The largest chunk of that spending went to dispersing $560.3 million back to its roughly 1,100 member institutions in 24 sports in all three divisions, as well as $200 million for a one-time payment the NCAA made to schools to fund additional programs.
Another $160.5 million went to the Division I performance fund, which awards conferences based on how many teams play in the NCAA tournament and how far they advance. Units are paid out over six years.
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Power 5 (and maybe Big East) commissioners may have an argument for a bigger piece of the NCAA pie.
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I don’t think the P5 want to get too greedy in hoops since they get to keep almost all their CFB money. Everyone plays basketball so this is the easiest way for the big boys to support the smaller schools enough to be left alone with their football money.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-selection-committee-leader-explains-why-even-easy-wins-matter/
A lengthy Q&A with the selection committee chair.
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Ill Hockey Study
Click to access hockeyreport_022718.pdf
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source: https://twitter.com/ericolson64/status/971779833930895360
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The consultants certainly sound positive about it. The fact UI would get new facilities for multiple sports, not just hockey, could be key to getting approval.
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The consultants certainly sound positive about it
That’s what they’re paid to do.
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Interesting that this was funded by NHL; they should be doing all they can to develop/encourage college hockey clubs/programs in California, Florida and Texas.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-ridiculousness-of-conference-tournament-locations-in-6-maps/
538 compares the actual locations of the conference tournaments for the P5 + Big East to the geographic centroid of each conference.
Closest? B12 – 196 miles away
Farthest? B10 – 660 miles away
Closest major city to the actual centroids?
B12 – Memphis, 175 miles
P12 – Salt Lake City, 169 miles
SEC – Memphis, 123 miles
Big East – Columbus OH, 74 miles
ACC – Raleigh, 73 miles
B10 – Chicago, 65 miles
They also look at the 15 schools farthest from their conference’s centroid.
1. Miami
2. WV
3. Creighton
4. UW
5. RU
Other B10:
12. UMD
13. NE
Top 15 by conference:
ACC – 1, 6, 15
BE – 3, 7
B10 – 5, 12, 13
B12 – 2, 8, 10
P12 – 4, 9, 11
SEC – 14
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Columbus, home to the Big East. Lovin’ it.
Splain me agin, Why is Ohio State in the B1G?
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All kidding aside, it does expose the major flaw in 538’s work. There are at least 4 methods for finding the center of a conference and they chose the one most impacted by outliers.
Centroid – Gentryville, MO
Center of gravity – Wellston, OK (basically Oklahoma City)
Average lat/long – Wagoner, OK (near Tulsa)
Minimum distance – Broken Arrow, OK (basically Tulsa)
Tulsa is over 200 miles to the west of Gentryville, MO. That’s a significant difference. It doesn’t sound nearly as outlandish for the center of the Big 12 to be in Oklahoma as it does to have it over in Missouri. That gives too much power to the location of one school in my opinion.
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Larry Scott gave a lengthy press conference during which he touched on some big picture issues.
Issues he mentioned (see the link for his comments):
* On the Pac-12 task force recommendations for cleaning up college basketball:
* On night football games:
“… Because, and this is also not always very well understood, the nighttime games in particular rate better in football, rate better than the daytime games for ESPN and for Fox.
“The last report I got at the end of this last season on ESPN was I think 16% better, on ESPN2, 52% better. Why? Because during the day there is a lot of clutter. …
“So the business for our broadcast partners is they want as many good games in the evening as possible. That’s where the tension lies. So we try to strike a balance. …
“So there is not much more that really can be done between now and the end of the contract which would be 2024.”
This logic presumably also applies to the B10’s Friday night games. Thankfully it’s just a handful of games each season.
Back to issues he mentioned:
* On the state of Pac-12 men’s basketball:
* On the national perception of the conference if USC and Arizona were to play for the title (given their involvement in the FBI corruption case):
* On Pac-12 involvement in the Arizona/ESPN ordeal with coach Sean Miller:
* On the Pac-12 Networks securing deals with streaming partners:
* On Pac-12 Networks distribution on DirecTV
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Jon Wilner looks ahead to the P12’s next TV deal in his free newsletter:
The current Tier One contracts with ESPN and Fox expire at the conclusion of the 2023-24 academic year.
Commissioner Larry Scott told me Thursday that the next agreement could very well be in place by the spring of 2023 — approximately 15 months before the deal kicks in. (That lead-in window tracks closely with the previous Tier One deal, which was announced in May 2011 for the summer of 2012.)
Working backward from a spring 2023 completion date, we have the negotiation period. Let’s assume several months for discussions with Fox and ESPN and, potentially, other bidders.
That backs us out to the fall of 2022 as the approximate start of Tier One negotiations.
The B10’s deal ends a year earlier, so we can probably assume the B10 will start discussions by the fall of 2021.
Major League Baseball’s current TV deals are up in 2021, followed by the expiration of the NFL’s rights in 2022 and the Big Ten’s in the spring of 2023.
The rate of change in the media space is vertiginous, but we could begin to gain clarity in the next 24-30 months as MLB and the NFL begin negotiations, followed by the Big Ten.
Scott said there is no metric that uses NFL/MLB rights to generate a potential value for the Pac-12 content on the open market — the Big Ten will provide a far better framework for Pac-12 potential (probably in early 2022).
But he believes it’s likely that new media players (Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc) could be actively involved in the live-sports space by then, thereby increasing competition and driving up rights fees.
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He just posted it as an article.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/changes-format-selection-show-may-eliminate-drama-182834534.html
In case you haven’t heard, the tournament selection show will be quite different this year:
1. It’s on TBS, not CBS
2. They will unveil every team that made it in during the first 15 minutes in alphabetical order.
3. They will show the brackets in the next 30 minutes.
4. There will be a live studio audience.
This means the drama over who made it in will be over very quickly and it will take longer to see the brackets.
“We tried to spread the show out a little bit two years ago thinking we could build even more drama, but what we heard from fans is they want information quickly,” Bryant said. “That’s what we’re going to do this time around. We’re going to provide all the teams very quickly, then bracket it and we are going to have this done within the same 45-minute range that we’ve done for years.”
…
“There won’t be as much drama throughout the first 45 minutes about the bubble teams, but there will still be a lot of intrigue about who’s playing who, what sites they’re going to and what the future matchups are throughout the brackets,” Bryant said. “We don’t think there will be any drop off in the excitement of the show.”
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In my opinion, the drama was over very quickly, they mishandled the announcement by just quickly breezing over the bubble teams that got left out, the sound wasn’t synched with the video for several minutes, and Greg Gumbel’s brown shoes with a blue suit was a terrible fashion choice.
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https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ncaaf/asu/2018/03/10/president-michael-crow-why-herm-edwards-right-coach-asu-football/410745002/
ASU’s president explains why he thinks Herm Edwards is the right coach for ASU football.
President Michael Crow’s vision for Arizona State athletics is simple: He wants each program to be its own West Point military academy. From the way they’re structured, to the leaders they produce.
To Crow, that made Herm Edwards the right choice to lead ASU football into an era of higher expectations.
“I am a huge believer in contrarian approaches,” Crow recently told azcentral sports, his first in-depth public comments on the December hire that drew criticism both locally and nationally. “I’m not a believer in just follow the same model. If you follow the same model, you’re just going to end up in the same place.”
…
Along with Vice President of Athletics Ray Anderson, Crow wanted to create an ASU culture that would remain in place regardless of coach.
…
Pillars of that culture: A focus on academics. A focus on team. And a focus on developing and retaining coaches, so “we don’t have this notion where we’re replacing everyone all the time.” That was a problem for Graham, who lost 10 assistant coaches over his final two seasons.
…
“We had programs where a coach would say, ‘I don’t want any input from anyone on anything. It’s my program and we will solve it all,”’ Crow said, not mentioning any coaches by name. “Really?”
He elaborated.
“I’m not talking about tactics,” Crow said. “Football tactics, basketball tactics, wrestling tactics – that’s up to the coach. That would be like interfering in a professor’s work. It’s about strategy, approach, solving certain other issues. I’ve had meetings with coaches and with Ray and I’ve asked: ‘Ray, is that person still coachable?’ … The second you stop being coachable, you’re out.”
…
“What I want is for coaches, to every extent possible, be the role model of what we’re attempting to produce,” Crow said. “They graduated from college, they were fantastic athletes, they have the character and life story that we’re interested in portraying. When you have officers at West Point standing in front of the crew, training them, they’re wearing all this stuff that they got along the way. That’s what we’re after.”
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22742996/pac-12-task-force-proposes-end-one-done-age-limit-rule
In case Brian doesn’t pick up on this!
Pac 12 committee suggests baseball rule for basketball. They actually want to allow athletes to have contact with agents! (Agents seem to be the one thing that guarantee serious NCAA penalties-Georgia Tech got nailed for one athlete getting $300 of clothing, USC 2004 was vacated primarily because of agents).
There’s a veiled threat if the NBA doesn’t cooperate. Also a threat to the NCAA.
“…If the NBA isn’t willing to make changes like this to the eligibly rules, I think college will have to re-evaluate some other things,” Scott said. “We’re very much approaching it from the perspective of we think there’s a lot of focus on this right now, cries for action….”
“…Recommendations also include modifications to the recruiting calendar, which, among other things, would allow players to visit campuses earlier in their high school careers and the creation of a new enforcement unit independent of the NCAA. The report notes the existing enforcement structure “fails to separate the investigative, prosecutorial, adjudicative and penalty functions,” which has eroded the presumption of innocence and given too much attention to trivial infractions.
Scott said the recommendations are designed to be taken comprehensively and is hopeful everything will be adopted.
The NCAA Commission will deliver its recommendations in April.”
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Click to access Pac-12_Task_Force_March_2018.pdf
The P12 task force on college basketball released their 50 page report and recommendations.
Some major points:
* Switch to the same eligibility rules as for baseball
* Players can access agents as early as their SO year in high school (similar to baseball and hockey)
* Creating a new enforcement unit that is independent of the NCAA
* Multiple small changes to eligibility and recruiting rules
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/03/12/Media/Pitaro.aspx
ESPN and the NFL’s relationship has never been worse. The latest issues for ESPN were the NFL letting Fox partner with the NFL Network to cover the draft and then moving ESPN’s wild card playoff game to Fox. The NFL is mad about stories they feel portray them in the worst possible way.
ESPN is dealing with a declining subscriber base and paying higher rights fees. A host of digital competitors are waiting in the wings to get some of its rights. It’s launching a direct-to-consumer service later this spring.
But multiple sources pointed to ESPN’s fraying relationship with the NFL as the top priority for new ESPN President Jimmy Pitaro.
…
During his three-month stint in charge of ESPN, Bodenheimer made an effort to start getting that relationship back on track. He visited with the league’s top officials and offered various olive branches to curry favor.
In one meeting, Bodenheimer committed to have ABC carry the third day of the NFL draft (rounds 4-7), a simulcast of the show that will be on ESPN. Bodenheimer made this deal despite some anger in Bristol that the NFL was working with Fox on a competing telecast, sources said.
The fact that Bodenheimer had to make such a concession on the NFL draft offers an illustration of just how bad the relationship between the two powerhouses had become. During Super Bowl week in Minneapolis, NFL executives privately described the relationship as the worst they’ve ever seen. In particular, they pointed to stories on ESPN.com and “Outside the Lines” that they felt went out of their way to portray the NFL in a bad light.
…
In the past, ESPN had executives in place who could mollify the NFL. Over the past two years, though, ESPN did not. Skipper did not engage with the people who matter at the NFL, like Goodell and Brian Rolapp, executive vice president of media, sources said. Skipper, who was known to favor basketball and his relationship with Adam Silver over the NFL and its leaders, never fully engaged in the partnership. He did not socialize with or develop close ties to influential owners, like Patriots owner Robert Kraft and the Cowboys’ Jones. It seemed like the folksy Southerner had little in common with the people at the top of the NFL.
…
ESPN executives felt handcuffed because its deals with cable and satellite providers carried a provision that its rate would be cut if ESPN ever lost the NFL.
Over a five-year period ending around 2015, ESPN methodically stripped that clause out of its affiliate deals, meaning that the rates cable and satellite distributors pay are not tied to ESPN having the NFL. That benefited ESPN’s long-term business. It also helped its executives get some swagger back, as insiders say it emboldened them to push back more at the NFL when they feel aggrieved.
This sure makes the NFL sound like a bully. Would ESPN ever dare to not bid so much for NFL games? Would the NFL gamble on FS1?
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What about streaming: When will those platforms be regarded as serious options? How much of a premium will targeted advertising command from advertisers? Will that premium increase over time?
Something else I wonder: Can the NFL ever abandon broadcast channels, particularly for local games? Would the league encounter any political difficulties if they did? Will changes to the media landscape seriously diminish the value of that type of exposure or render it obsolete?
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jog267,
“What about streaming: When will those platforms be regarded as serious options? How much of a premium will targeted advertising command from advertisers? Will that premium increase over time?”
I think streaming is years away from being taken seriously as a primary option by the NFL. Too many of their fans, especially older ones, don’t stream. Also, I don’t think the streaming platforms are capable of streaming to 20M+ in ultra high def simultaneously. I think the NFL will pursue a standard option for at least another decade while adding streaming on top of it (like the past couple of years with Thursday night games). There’s another issue that you brought up next that is also significant.
“Something else I wonder: Can the NFL ever abandon broadcast channels, particularly for local games? Would the league encounter any political difficulties if they did? Will changes to the media landscape seriously diminish the value of that type of exposure or render it obsolete?”
The NFL’s current rules require games to be broadcast in the home markets unless they don’t sell out. Changing that might put their antitrust exemption at risk as congress has already threatened to repeal the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 multiple times. Congress did act in the 70s to force the NFL to televise games locally if the game sold out at least 3 days before kickoff (the rule has since expired but the NFL still follows it). Since congress is made up of older people generally, I think they’d be hard to persuade that streaming is sufficient without a local broadcast.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-march-madness-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo
538 has their probabilistic model for the odds of each team advancing in the tournament round by round.
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http://conferenceusa.com/news/2018/3/14/Multimedia_Rights_Annoucement_2018.aspx
C-USA Announces Multimedia Rights Partnerships
Conference USA Commissioner Judy MacLeod announced today new innovative multimedia rights partnerships. A multi-year agreement makes CBS Sports the primary rightsholder for C-USA football and men’s basketball, televising the conference’s best games, including the championship game in each sport on CBS Sports Network.
MacLeod also announced that Stadium has expanded on last year’s partnership and will receive a strong selection of C-USA football and men’s basketball games.
“While exploring our options for future exposure, continuing our tremendous relationship with CBS Sports was a priority given our history,” said MacLeod. “We recognized this was an ideal opportunity to build on our existing partnerships with CBS and Stadium to stay on the forefront of broadcasting through both digital distribution and traditional means. We will continue pioneering fresh and innovative ways to deliver our diverse audience a multitude of viewing options on emerging platforms.”
Beginning with the 2018-19 season, CBS Sports Network will broadcast nine football games plus the C-USA Football Championship and eight men’s basketball games per year, as well as the C-USA men’s basketball championships semifinals and men’s and women’s basketball championship games.
CBS Sports has also reached an innovative deal with Facebook to sublicense and produce select C-USA football and basketball games that will broadcast exclusively on Facebook. The agreement allows for three football games and six basketball games per year to air on Facebook. The games will be a CBS Sports production, with CBS Sports announcers, graphics and branding.
“We are excited to extend our relationship with Conference USA for another five years and welcome Facebook as our new partner,” said Dan Weinberg, Executive Vice President, Programming, CBS Sports. “This unique deal allows CBS Sports Network to become the primary home of Conference USA, televising the conference’s top games, including the championship games for both sports. And in doing so, we are bringing on a new partner in Facebook, sublicensing select games and extending the CBS Sports brand to a new platform.”
Building on last year’s success, Stadium will broadcast 15 football games and 17 men’s basketball games for the 2018-19 season. The deal includes the quarterfinal rounds in the league’s annual basketball championship. The multi-platform sports network will broadcast seven of the 15 football games and 10 of the 21 men’s basketball games exclusively on Facebook. It will also continue to produce C-USA events for all of its digital and broadcast distribution partners including WatchStadium.com, the Stadium apps, and over-the-air broadcast and cable retransmission, in select markets. A full list of ways to watch Stadium can be found here: https://watchstadium.com/where-to-watch/.
“We are thrilled to deepen and extend our relationship with Conference USA, its great member institutions and fan bases, and with our partners at Facebook,” said Stadium CEO, Jason Coyle. “We are excited to work with the Conference to ensure that its games are produced and distributed at the cutting edge of sports media.”
Stadium launched its 24/7, all-platform sports network in August 2017, and began its groundbreaking live streaming partnership with Facebook in 2017-18. The first Stadium game on Facebook Watch took place on September 2, 2017 when Miami played at Marshall. Stadium will continue to deliver uniquely coordinated production assets and social elements for its Facebook Watch broadcasts, making the viewing experience as interactive and personal as possible.
The games produced by CBS Sports and Stadium for Facebook will be available to fans in the U.S. on Facebook Watch. Fans globally will be able to access these games via CBS Sports and Stadium’s respective show pages.
“No matter if it’s at a tailgate or on Facebook, college sports bring people together,” said Rob Shaw, Facebook Sports Media and League Partnerships Lead. “So we’re thrilled to partner with CBS Sports and Stadium to distribute exclusive, live Conference USA games to a global audience on our platform. We look forward to collaborating with these great broadcast partners to deliver interactive and social productions on Facebook Watch. This will enable fans to experience the excitement of C-USA football and basketball in unique and engaging ways next season.”
The full schedule of games and their corresponding distribution outlets will be announced at a later date.
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I don’t think Rice will make as much money on this deal per year as Auburn pays a 3* linebacker.
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https://pilotonline.com/sports/college/old-dominion/article_035d751a-27d6-11e8-a537-5bf6c33fcc22.html
Conference USA announced a media rights deal Wednesday that will put an additional $200,000 per year in member schools’ coffers, according to sources familiar with the deal.
…
Though the league did not announce how much it will receive in rights fees, league sources said it is an increase from $200,000 to $400,000 per school.
…
League spokesman Tim McNamara said the league is talking to ESPN about continuing its partnership. A deal with BeIn Sports runs another year.
ESPN carried a handful of football games and the league championship, but C-USA’s primary exposure through the network has been via streaming on ESPN3.
Schools handle the production costs for those games and receive a small rights fee. Selig said schools are producing the games anyway, so the costs are already being incurred.
…
Selig called Facebook “a huge potential audience.” And he said that a potentially overlooked part of the deal is that CBS and Stadium will bear production costs.
“A league might say they have a $10 million deal with ESPN,” he said. “What they don’t tell you is $9 million is sent back to ESPN in production costs. So they actually have a $1 million deal with ESPN.”
It’s not great money, but at least it’s an increase.
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http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2018/03/key-points-of-sun-belt-contract.html
The Sun Belt recently signed a new deal, too. Their old deal was only worth $100k per school per year. So at least CUSA is staying ahead of them.
Apparently the MAC’s deal is worth $833k per school per year and that deal lasts through 2026-27. All those weeknight games pay off.
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2763032-ranking-the-10-states-with-the-most-talent-in-college-football-right-now
Bleacher Report ranks the top 10 states for CFB talent based on recruiting rankings combined with on field production.
We analyzed the top 100 prospects of the past four recruiting classes (2015-18), according to the 247Sports composite rankings, and took a sample set of 150 of the best players or those with the highest ceilings coming back in 2018.
The states with the highest number of players mattered, of course, but this exercise wasn’t just about recruiting rankings. It also takes into account already-established playmakers, and states that have produced the best players get bonus points.
1. TX
2. FL
3. CA
4. GA
5. NC
6. MS
7. LA
8. OH
9. AL
10. SC
Honorable mention – NJ
The advantage this confers on the SEC and ACC (less so the B12 and P12) is obvious.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/03/14/big-12-reports-371-million-revenues-2017-up-more-than-18-percent/426331002/
Big 12 reported earnings of $371 million for the fiscal year that ended June 30, 2017, which is an increase of $57 million (18%) from 2016. It equates to a payout of approximately $34.3 million per school except for Baylor, whose is having 25% of its share being withheld pending the results of an independent review of the school.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/03/14/big-12-reports-371-million-revenues-2017-up-more-than-18-percent/426331002/
The B12 reported $371M in revenue for 2016-17, up $57M from the previous year (+18%). That led to average payouts of $34.3M per school (except Baylor which has 25% withheld due to the scandal).
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/want-to-know-who-will-win-during-march-madness-go-back-to-the-preseason-polls/
The preseason AP and coaches polls are slightly better predictors of NCAA tournament results than the end of season RPI. Both polls are correct 71.8% of the time while the RPI is correct 69.1% of the time. Of course the polls only predict games containing the top teams (often high seeds) while the RPI predicts every game so the RPI has more chances to be wrong.
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The 2018 P12 just became the first power 5 conference ever to fail to advance a single team to the round of 32 (since at least the B12’s formation in 1996-97).
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12s-struggles-in-ncaa-tournament-the-latest-in-a-horrid-year-for-the-conference/
CBS reviews just how bad this year has been for the P12. They went 1-8 in bowls after missing the CFP again and now they missed the second round for the first time since 1986. Add in Arizona’s spotlight in the FBI investigation along with several other schools being involved.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-conference-standings-entire-pac-12-is-out-while-secs-still-perfect/
Jerry Palm says this isn’t the worst tournament performance ever for the P12 or a power 5 conference.
In 1985, the Pac-12, then the Pac-10, sent four teams to the newly expanded NCAA tournament and all four lost in the first round. The league’s highest seeded team that year was Washington. The Huskies lost 66-58 to 12th seeded Kentucky. Eighth seeded USC, and a pair of ten seeds, Arizona and Oregon State, also lost their first games.
The Pac-12 also went 0-3 in 1981, when it was still a 48-team field. That was a much more disappointing performance by the conference because the three teams the league sent to the tournament were No. 1 seed Oregon State, No. 2 Arizona State and No. 3 UCLA. All lost their first round games, and only the Beavers were competitive. ASU and UCLA lost by 17 and 23 respectively.
The all-time record for the number of teams a major conference sent to the tournament in which all lost their first games belongs to the SEC, which went 0-5 in the 1989 tournament. Alabama was the highest seeded of the league’s teams at a No. 6. Regular season champion Florida was a 7, while Vandy was an 8 and LSU and Tennessee earned 10-seeds. The only close-game loss was the Crimson Tide, which lost to South Alabama by two.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/nancy-armour/2018/03/15/chicago-vancouver-minneapolis-no-world-cup-fifa-has-itself-blame/430449002/
FIFA is so greedy that Chicago, Minneapolis and Vancouver have removed their cities from consideration for hosting World Cup games as part of the joint US/Canada/Mexico big for 2026.
I think first world countries are better off refusing to bid for these major events any more. Let the IOC and FIFA keep going to countries that want to waste billions of dollars.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/13/amazon-will-be-major-disruptive-force-to-live-sports-rights-analyst.html
An analyst believes Amazon and Facebook will become major players in the live sports rights market in the near future.
Daniel Ives, head of technology research at GBH Insights, said in a note Tuesday that the next 12 to 18 months is a “pivotal window” for both tech giants to secure rights to various professional sports programs.
This story will play out over the next few years with Amazon and Facebook likely to become big contenders to win the right to stream games, he said.
“We note in 2021, the year when the NFL, MLB and NHL media rights deals mostly end, will be the first major opportunity for Amazon, Facebook and other major tech streaming platforms to potentially bid on some of these rights versus the likes of traditional entrenched media/cable players,” Ives said.
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I am wondering how much the imminent (and welcome, likely a minority view here) demise of net neutrality rules will impact this, particularly if Amazon, Facebook and other streaming services worry (or perhaps hope?) that a future FCC under different leadership will reimpose similar rules.
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The current rules have to be a huge concern to streaming content companies. Monopolies control the means of delivering their product and the government won’t regulate those monopolies. That’s a recipe for disaster, encouraging greenmail, bribery, collusion and all sorts of illicit behavior. It’s almost guaranteed that the FCC under the next Democratic president will reimpose stricter regulation. As the younger generations gain more power, the public will push for it more strongly as well.
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http://www.espn.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/121935/umbc-does-the-unthinkable-becoming-the-first-16-seed-to-beat-a-no-1-seed
History!
#16 seed UMBC crushed overall #1 seed UVA 74-54. It’s the first loss by a #1 seed to a #16 seed in 136 tries.
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What were heretofore the closest times a #16 came to beating a #1? Everyone knows Princeton vs. Georgetown 1989, but I believe a SWAC school (Texas Southern) came close to doing likewise, with far less attention.
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An MSN columnist calls for Larry Scott’s dismissal: https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaabk/opinion-pac-12-commissioner-larry-scott-needs-to-be-fired-immediately/ar-BBKiQWg?ocid=sf
I’m not certain whether anyone could make the Pac a success in its current state, given the Pacific Coast and adjacent states’ relative lack of passion for college sports (something I’ve noticed during my four years as a Los Angeles resident, despite the success of athletic programs at SC and UCLA), but perhaps a different approach can be taken. Otherwise, the Pac may have to wait for the next go-round of the conference carousel and find some way to woo Texas, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Okie State (its only viable expansion candidates).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22797498/university-central-florida-says-unbeaten-season-was-worth-more-200-million
A report from UCF estimates that their perfect season was worth more than $200M in equivalent advertising exposure. For people who wonder why schools are willing to lose money on sports, this is why.
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Butler will vouch for that. Their academic profile increased after the two FF runs, primarily due to a huge relative spike in applications. And now they’re in the Big East. Pretty amazing.
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I thought it felt weird to refer to Maryland as a “Big Ten champion,” but this is even weirder: Tonight, Notre Dame won the Big Ten hockey tournament by beating Ohio State 3-2.
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BTW, I’m the former vp19, returning after an absence. (Using a new laptop required an identity change.)
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http://intermatwrestle.com/articles/19913
In case ccrider55 didn’t see this elsewhere, Arkansas-Little Rock is adding a D-I wrestling team.
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The women’s NCAA tournament has turned up a couple of storylines this year.
http://www.nj.com/rutgerswomen/index.ssf/2018/03/rutgers_womens_basketball_turns_down_wnit_bid_afte.html
RU was one of the last 4 teams out and initially accepted an NIT bid before rejecting it. I have 2 problems with that off the bat. I understand turning down a CBI or CIT bid that actually costs you money but the NIT is a reputable tournament and gives the team a last chance to win a title as well as get experience for the young players. I also take issue with any team accepting a bid and then turning it down later. The NIT works under a time crunch already since they have to wait for the NCAA selections before they can choose teams. Apparently RU’s coach doesn’t like the NIT but they have gone in years past when the team was young as in 2014 and 2016.
But the bigger issue to me is this:
People close to Stringer told NJ Advance Media she wished to pursue her 1,000th win in the NCAA Tournament, and not the WNIT.
I understand being disappointed in missing the NCAA, but it should never be about when/where the coach will win a milestone game. Is winning some early OOC game better than winning late in the NIT?
The other issue some people are talking about is UConn’s dominance:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/josh-peter/2018/03/17/uconns-88-point-win-ncaa-tournament-loss-womens-basketball/435285002/
UConn scored a record 140 points in their opening round game, winning by 88. That winning margin isn’t even a record for the women’s tournament as Baylor won by 89 last year.
Is the women’s game hurt by these blowouts or does it benefit from the publicity? Would women’s basketball be better off with a smaller tournament to avoid these massive blowouts? I understand the desire to have the men’s and women’s tournaments be almost the same, but only 64 teams get in as is. How can the women’s game develop more parity? Do we need the women to become more selfish and transfer for playing time like the men do?
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Stringer has 997 wins. She should retire the day that she gets to 1000. Comments at NJ.com are quite negative about this.
UConn is definitely hurting WBBall. There are only two or three teams that have any chance in the womens tournament every year. That can’t be good for the game
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Same could have been said during the Wooden era. And how many really have a shot in CFB? Saban, a few kings and a couple others having a once in a decade or two overachieving season?
Women’s game is dramatically improving but depth takes more time.
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Dynasties in sports often are good for drawing more attention to the sport and giving new fans someone to love/hate. I think the bigger problem for WBB is the lack of depth. UConn winning a lot is okay if the other teams are decent, but teams losing by 90 points in the NCAA tournament is bad for the game. The NCAA almost needs to split D-I up for WBB until the worst programs can raise their game.
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http://theconversation.com/just-competing-in-march-madness-is-a-fundraising-win-for-the-schools-93314
A look at how postseason appearances impact donations to universities.
How much does a March Madness appearance boost donations?
I looked into that with Michael Mondello at the University of South Florida a decade ago. Our study analyzed 20 years of financial data from Division 1 colleges and universities. We found that the public universities making the cut saw an increase in donations of about $1.2 million in 2015 dollars the following year. Private institutions did even better, getting a $1.4 million bump.
Public universities also saw their donations rise after their football teams took part in bowl games, but not private universities. That’s probably because with the exception of Notre Dame, the University of Southern California and Stanford University, most schools with top-performing NCAA football teams are public universities.
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http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/page/the_loyalty_game.html
A look at how shoe company money has changed youth and college basketball.
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http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-mountain-west-gonzaga-byu-analysis-20180307-story.html
A follow-up piece about the Gonzaga to the MWC rumors. They pose and answer a lot of questions.
Here’s a look at the most pressing questions surrounding the ever-shifting sands of conference realignment and how it might impact Gonzaga, BYU, the WCC and the Mountain West.
Why did Thompson leak this?
The short answer is, he didn’t.
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It forces the West Coast Conference to address the prospect of losing Gonzaga, which can then take that offer into Mountain West negotiations. It also sucks BYU into the realignment vortex and forces it to address the prospect of life in the WCC without the Zags as well as the real elephant in the locker room: its viability as a football independent.
All that accelerates the process, which is in the Mountain West’s favor. No point dragging this out with a new television contract on the horizon.
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How far along are discussions?
Further than you think.
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One source said they are so far along that Mountain West presidents hoped to vote on Gonzaga’s inclusion as early as this week when they meet at the conference basketball tournament in Las Vegas. It has since been pushed back until early April, after the Final Four.
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Are Gonzaga and BYU a package deal?
Interestingly, no.
The Mountain West is exclusively talking with Gonzaga and trying to finalize that deal. Only then might it approach BYU, or vice versa.
Other questions they address:
Why does Gonzaga want to move?
Who are the other five schools?
Will the WCC try to keep the Zags?
What concessions would the Mountain West make?
Would the Mountain West take BYU without football?
What happens to the WCC if Gonzaga and BYU leave?
What happens to the Mountain West if Gonzaga and BYU both come?
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https://president.nmsu.edu/activity-report-march-3-march-9/
On a related note, NMSU’s chancellor talked about expansion in his weekly activity report.
While at the WAC Basketball Tournament, I met with the Presidents and Athletic Directors of the WAC schools to discuss business as well as the challenges facing the Conference regarding membership. The WAC is initiating an aggressive membership campaign. Commissioner Jeff Hurd said “something was going to happen and happen soon” regarding conference alignments and realignments. One rumor was the Mountain West would become a 16-member conference with two-8 member divisions. NMSU could come into play as a new member, along with UTEP.
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Here’s more discussion of the rumors about the MWC expanding to 16.
The WAC is already in trouble with a league that has teams that stretch from Seattle to Texas and Chicago.
Plus, there is the fact that Cal State Bakersfield is leaving in 2020, oh did we mention the WAC has just eight current members. So, it would make sense for the WAC to look at membership options.
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16-team Mountain West football league
This would require four more teams. The likely candidates would start with UTEP and New Mexico State. Geography sort of plays an issue but North Dakota State is a solid option and of course BYU, but the money for the Cougars is still much more than what the Mountain West can provide.
If we are to keep with some semblance of travel partners then the Mountain West should grab a pair of Texas schools and while Rice was mentioned by a few people this seems like a long shot since academics are Stanford-esque and the Owls have not been consistently good at football, ever.
What makes more sense would be UTSA and North Texas. Both have some recent success in football and are just 300 miles apart.
To round out to get to 16 in hoops the final piece is Gonzaga.
16-team Mountain West basketball league
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New Mexico State and UTEP again are an easy choice, that gives the Mountain West 13 basketball schools. The other three also are fairly easy to figure out. The top options are Gonzaga, BYU and then Grand Canyon slightly over Saint Mary’s.
This does two things: First, there are 16 members for basketball and 14 for football.
Getting BYU adds the potential for another football team and GCU over Saint Mary’s is for the same reasoning. The Lopes have money and have toyed with the idea of adding a football team.
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GCU could be the first D1-A/FBS to play in a stadium explicitly named after a (market, not athletic) rival.
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A detailed breakdown of a fan’s ideal MWC expansion to 16 and how to make it work in terms of scheduling.
Step 1: Invite Gonzaga and St. Mary’s for Olympic Sports
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Step 2: Offer BYU an invitation to the MW and privately inform them that MW institutions will no longer schedule them for any sports unless they accept the offer
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Step 3: Get New Mexico State and Grand Canyon University for Olympic Sports
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How does the conference look when everything shakes out?
Football
Mountain West football will see very little change. The conference could move to 9 conference games which would allow better scheduling for all members, except Air Force. Boise State would probably move to the West division with many of their former WAC foes and would strengthen that side of the conference.
[table below reformatted to work here]
Mountain:
Air Force
BYU
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
Utah State
Wyoming
West:
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Nevada
San Diego State
San Jose State
UNLV
Basketball
Sixteen members for basketball looks very scary at first but it’s not so bad when you break down what it could potentially look like. In a geographical-based quadrant system, travel partners could be reinstated with every team playing each other once and home and away series against the 3 other members in your quadrant for a total of 18 games.
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[again, table reformatted]
Northwest
Gonzaga
Boise State
St. Mary’s
San Jose State
Pacific
Nevada
UNLV
Fresno State
San Diego State
Rockies
BYU
Utah State
Wyoming
Colorado State
Southwest
Air Force
Grand Canyon
New Mexico
New Mexico State
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22844453/xfl-documentary-maker-plans-own-football-league
Everyone probably remembers that Vince McMahon announced that the XFL would return in 2020. Well, the AAF will start play before that.
Charlie Ebersol, who directed a documentary on the XFL that aired last year as part of ESPN’s 30 for 30 series, announced Tuesday that his league, the Alliance of American Football, plans to debut Feb. 9, 2019, the week after Super Bowl LIII. The season will run 10 weeks and will have 50-man teams.
…
To help him steer the league, Charlie Ebersol brought on former NFL general manager Bill Polian, currently an analyst for ESPN. The player side will be overseen by former Pittsburgh Steelers safety Troy Polamalu, and the team side will be guided by former USC standout and executive J.K. McKay.
Advisers to the league also will include former NFL players Hines Ward and Justin Tuck, as well as Dick Ebersol.
While McMahon’s league is backed by McMahon’s money, Charlie Ebersol’s league is backed by others, including former Minnesota Vikings defensive end Jared Allen, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and The Chernin Group, which, among other investments, owns a significant share of Barstool Sports.
“I think where businesses like this fail is that they expect to have ludicrous and unrealistic ticket and media deal projections in Year 1,” Ebersol said. “Our investors here understand that it’s a seven- to 10-year plan.”
Unlike McMahon, whose announcement came without a media plan, Ebersol said that his league, made up of players who didn’t make the cut for the NFL, will have the initial game and the championship game on CBS and one matchup per week on CBS Sports Network. Other games will be available on the league’s app, which Ebersol said promises to integrate live fantasy play into the broadcasts.
“Fifty-nine million people play fantasy and 20 million people play only fantasy football,” Ebersol. “We have to be able to take advantage of the people who just stop playing fantasy when the NFL season ends.”
…
The eight teams in cities that will be announced in the next three months will start by having regional drafts, protecting eligible players who played in the local community for their college days.
Along with good football and names the local market knows, Ebersol said a hallmark of the league will be no TV timeouts and 60 percent fewer commercials, as well as an innovative approach to broadcasting.
There also will be no kickoffs (the ball will be placed automatically at the 25-yard line) and no onside kicks. The losing team will just start on its own 35-yard line with fourth-and-10. Play clocks will be 30 seconds and every touchdown will be followed by a two-point conversion attempt.
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P12N info from Wilner:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/20/pac-12-networks-president-mark-shuken-on-equity-options-the-secure-fortress-att-negotiations-and-looming-tier-one-deals/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Doesn’t look like a change in strategy from new leader:
“Early in a recent conversation, it became clear that Mark Shuken, the new president of the Pac-12 Networks, is a believer. It became clear because he said as much.
“I believe Larry was prophetic in taking the risk,’’ Shuken said.
Perhaps a bit more combative?
“The AT&T sponsorship works very well for both entities,’’ he said. “The fact that DirecTV does not carry the networks does not work for us, and we’re not inclined to treat those as separate initiatives.
“We’re hopeful that DirecTV will choose to launch the networks the way everyone else carries the networks.
“But I would rather work with another wireless partner than an entity whose television partner doesn’t choose to carry the networks.”
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ccrider55,
“Doesn’t look like a change in strategy from new leader:”
Part of that may be the lack of any real options in the near future.
Industry sources with no connections to the conference describe Shuken as bright and creative, with a deep knowledge of the media landscape; inside the conference, he has been praised for an approachable, honest management style.
“I’m just not sure how much he can do for them at this point,’’ one source said.
That’s the issue, after all: How much of a course correction can Shuken execute?
…
All the shortcomings were glaring at Shuken when he took command of the networks in early September.
Then again, it was a prime opportunity: The networks had nowhere to go but up, and Shuken wouldn’t be blamed for any failings.
“The downside risk is limited,” he said, “and the upside is enormous.”
The P12 basically needs to have the market change to suit them. Until then, there are limited changes he can make that will matter.
In both installments, you might notice the underlying theme of Shuken’s fledgling tenure: Every move is made with 2023-24 in mind.
That’s when the Pac-12’s contracts with ESPN and Fox expire, and the next Tier One media deal takes center stage.
…
He recounted a recent exchange with executives from a new-media company (he didn’t say which one).
“We went to one entity, and when we explained our timeframe, (they) cut us off. They said, ‘We don’t want you to sell your rights again until we have a chance to talk to you.’
“They’re going to evaluate our value differently than the current distributors.”
That’s the key. Will new bidders (Amazon, Facebook, etc) enter the marketplace and offer significantly more for P12 content? I’m not convinced streaming will work for the majority of their revenue sport games yet. TV pays a lot more than streaming for NFL games so far.
“Perhaps a bit more combative?”
Trying to leverage AT&T into getting the P12N on DirecTV is about their only option. The problem is that they have no negotiation room on the price since they have most favored nation clauses in their deals with other providers. Will they essentially give away their wireless deal to get on DirecTV? Is the wireless deal important enough to AT&T for them to compromise?
A couple of years ago DirecTV wanted an equity stake in P12N and some other rights to carry it. Also, Dish has an exclusive sponsorship deal with the P12. Has anything changed?
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Brian, saw your note about a coming wrestling add. Unfortunately…
http://emueagles.com/news/2018/3/20/general-eastern-michigan-university-athletics-to-reduce-varsity-sports-from-21-to-17.aspx
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http://www.mlive.com/eagles/index.ssf/2018/03/no_plans_to_cut_football_at_ea.html
EMU is cutting 4 sports (softball, wrestling, women’s tennis and men’s swimming and diving). I’m not sure how or why they chose those 4 specific sports other than they needed title IX balance in their cuts and presumably they looked at the total savings. The cuts are supposed to save them $2.4M per year out of a $27M subsidy ($34M total budget). EMU previously led the MAC with 21 sports, so they may have needed to trim some teams.
“Football is not being cut,” Wetherbee said in a news conference inside the Convocation Center. “No. 1, because I had a directive from our board of regents and the president, and we all agree we want to stay in the Mid-American Conference and we want to be a FBS Division I football team.
“It wasn’t even an option to look at that.”
…
“The MAC gives us close to $2 million (for participation),” he said. “It is a drivable conference. If we drop, our NCAA money we get, the MAC money we get, you are talking millions of dollars by dropping that. It would actually hurt us by doing that, and what conference are we going to go to?
“If you are going to drop down to Division II, is that the reputation we want? We compare ourselves to a Western Michigan, a Central Michigan, a Toledo and Bowling Green. Do we want to all of a sudden compare ourselves to Oakland (Division I), Saginaw Valley or Grand Valley? Those are obviously questions the president and the board said no, we don’t.”
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“I think they (people, including faculty and students) feel like football spends all the money and they are a huge strain on us,” he said. “If we eliminate football, we will eliminate a lot more sports.
“When I look at our expenses, I have $4.1 million in coaches’ salaries and operational expenses this year (for football),” he continued, although financial data is not yet available. “I had $2.8 million in scholarships, so $6.9 million is what the football program cost.”
Wetherbee said the athletic department generated more than $5 million for the football program this year, not including donations.
“They are not a black hole,” he said of the football team. “They are helping us. They help our basketball program, they help our rowing program. They help all the others. Our university can benefit from this. I have been trying to preach on the fact that let’s look at the real numbers. Let’s not look off some NCAA form that was sent out. That’s not real. What I stare at every day is real.”
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Being on FS1 really hurts the P12 tournament title game. I point this out since the B10 has to live with Fox going forward.
The Pac-12 championship game on FS1 drew a gutter-level rating of 0.35, with just 612,000 viewers, according to data from SportsMediaWatch.
…
For perspective, the Mountain West championship, on CBS at 3 p.m. (Pacific), drew 1.6 million viewers.
That’s right: San Diego State-New Mexico on CBS, head-to-head with the Big 12 on ESPN, had almost three times the Pac-12 audience.
Again, this isn’t simply a timing issue. In fact, it’s less a timing issue than a partner issue: The Pac-12 title game in 2017 on ESPN drew 2.1 million viewers.
From SportsMediaWatch, on the 2018 broadcast:
“The Wildcats’ win topped only 2016 as the lowest rated and least-watched Pac-12 title game since the tournament resumed in 2002. The three title games on FS1 rank as the three-least watched, with none of the three cracking a 0.5 rating or 700,000 viewers.”
…
But there appear to be limited solutions for the conference in the years Fox owns the rights.
It’s difficult to imagine FS1 moving the game into the mid- or late afternoon windows, where it would go head-to-head with the Big 12 and ACC title games on ESPN.
Yet an early tipoff, at 12 or 1 p.m., is untenable for the players because of the Friday night semifinals.
What about moving the title game off FS1 and placing it on FOX broadcast? Big FOX has the Big East final at 3 p.m. Would it devote prime-time, over-the-air hours on a Saturday night to college basketball?
At the same time, moving the title game to Sunday, where there is limited competition, poses logistical issues:
…
Lacking any other options, should the conference consider moving the event up one day, with the opening round on Tuesday and the championship on Friday.
…
Bottom line: The title game on FS1 on Saturday at 10 p.m. ET is a nightmare from an audience perspective.
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Part 2 of Wilner’s interview with the new P12N president Mark Shuken. This covers topics that fans asked Wilner to bring up.
Shuken’s affable but straightforward approach has helped ease tensions within the Pac-12’s three-pronged universe (conference, networks and campuses), according to sources.
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Question: Will football take a greater place of primacy in the Pac-12 Networks’ universe? (That would include moving the first-rate preview show out of its current, somewhat inaccessible window on Friday night.)
…
He later noted: “The member institutions and the athletic directors have articulated that, for many reasons, football and men’s basketball should be the drivers of audience reach and impact.
“And yet, just as importantly, the mission of the conference and the networks and the 850 lives events, at the expense of revenue, was gender equality.
“The presidents and the schools designed this model for gender equity and understood that (would mean) foregoing revenue, unapologetically. We are proud of that mission, and it’s written in stone.”
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Questions (two combined into one): Are there plans to expand streaming options through new partnerships, and might the Pac-12 Networks’ content be available directly to fans through a conference-owned OTT service?
Shuken: “The former (new partnerships) is exactly where we are focused. The latter (a Pac-12 offering), we are obligated to not do based on our distribution deals.
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Topic: Distribution
Background: The Pac-12 Networks are available in approximately 20 million homes, one-third the number of the SEC and Big Ten networks.
Question: What is a fair household count for the Pac-12? Ideally, what should the number be?
Shuken: “I honestly don’t have a number. I don’t even have an arbitrary guess at one.
From reading the whole thing, it sounds like mostly P12 fans will get more of the same with a gradual increase in the number of streaming providers and more HD events. The revenue sports may get a little more focus, but not a lot.
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Fans always say they love Cinderella, but host cities sure don’t. Atlanta got 5, 7, 9 and 11 seeds and only 5-seed UK was remotely local.
Official attendance (15,711 capacity):
KSU over UK & Loyola over Nevada – 15,616
Loyola over KSU – 15,477
Of course those are tickets sold not butts in seats. There were noticeable blocks of empty seats and the city’s hotels and restaurants were a lot less crowded after UK lost and all their fans went home.
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https://www.tidesports.com/alabama-negotiating-future-football-series-with-notre-dame/
It looks like the flu may have struck Tuscaloosa. Rumors say that AL is looking into scheduling home and home series with Texas and Notre Dame in football.
The Crimson Tide last participated in an out-of-conference home-and-home series in 2010-11 against Penn State, hosting the Nittany Lions in 2010 and traveling to State College, Pa., in 2011.
UA Director of Athletics Greg Byrne would not confirm the schools are in talks, but did say the athletic department is pursuing future two-game deals that would have Alabama play a game at Bryant-Denny Stadium and also play on the opposing school’s campus.
“I’ll say that we are exploring some home-and-homes,” Byrne said.
…
Last September, Saban confirmed on his radio show he and Byrne had discussed scheduling future home-and-home series.
“I would like to do that,” he said. “We played Penn State home and home when I was here and it was a good game here, it was a good game there, great crowd and all that. It’s better for our fans if we play at home, I get that.”
UT doesn’t really have any openings until 2025-26. The ND series would also have to be pretty far in the future.
I wonder why AL would change scheduling strategies now. It’s not like Saban cares about the fans more now.
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Scholarship cost dwarfed by coach and staff cost.
http://www.cleveland.com/expo/erry-2018/03/a9ad5f0d13/big_tens_16_billion_sports_emp.html
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Dwarfed might be a touch strong unless you are combining coaches and staff into one category (which the article doesn’t do).
Using OSU as an example:
Scholarships: $20.1M
Coaches: $31.8M
Staff: $32.6M
They also don’t report the number of coaches or staff, just the number of athletes.
And MI is even closer since their scholarships cost more:
Scholarships: $25.1M
Coaches: $28.8M
Staff: $31.7M
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According to an article in today’s Wall Street Journal, the Larry Nassar scandal will likely cost Michigan State in excess of $500,000,000, with victim settlements probably more than $300,000,000. It is not yet clear, what might be covered by insurers.
At PSU, the total costs reached $250,000,000, including $100,000,000 in settlements with 33 people. There are at least 250 plaintiffs in civil suits vs. MSU.
Interim President John Engler, (former Gov of Michigan) stated that increased tuition might be a way to pay some of the expenses. Engler said that he doubted that the university would have to declare bankruptcy, but did not rule it out as a possibility.
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The article I linked below may help explain that number. Multiple other people at MSU who could’ve potentially stopped Nassar are being investigated by the AG. The dean of the osteopathic medical school (Nassar’s direct boss) has been arrested. If he or other higher ups at MSU are convicted, that really opens MSU up to civil claims.
My question would be how much of this falls on MSU versus USA Gymnastics. A lot of his victims came through his work for USAG, not MSU. Did the article suggest how much USAG might owe?
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Not a word about USAG. The article was only about MSU.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/03/28/michigan-state-social-media-monitoring-bills/466486002/
MSU’s PR and legal fees add up pretty quickly. They spent $500k just in January to have a firm monitor social media, for example.
A public relations firm billed Michigan State University for more than $500,000 for January as it tracked social-media activity surrounding the Larry Nassar case that often included the accounts of victims and their families, journalists, celebrities and politicians.
Michigan State University’s Office of Communication and Brand Strategy previously had been doing the work, which also included collecting and evaluating news articles, and some of its employees continued to do so in January.
The work by Weber Shandwick, a New York-based firm, totaled $517,343 for more than 1,440 hours of work, according to documents obtained through a public records request. The firm billed for work done by 18 employees, whose hourly rates ranged from $200 to $600 per hour.
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As of March 2, outside law firms and consulting firms had billed the university $9.69 million in connection with work on lawsuits or communications strategy related to Nassar’s criminal case and related fallout. Nassar, a former university doctor, sexually abused hundreds of women and girls during his 20-year career.
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However, that total doesn’t include any work from Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom this year. As of early March, the New York-based law firm had billed Michigan for $5.4 million, more than any other law firm.
It also doesn’t include work by Los Angeles-based law firm Latham & Watkins LLC, which is handling insurance matters related to Nassar and has billed the university for $2 million. It has two lawyers whose fees are at least $1,100 an hour.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22922590/west-coast-conference-alters-schedule-rules-hopes-more-ncaa-bids
The WCC is imposing changes on future hoops schedules in hopes of getting better treatment by the tournament committee.
The WCC Presidents’ Council announced Monday that the 10-team league will go to a 16-game schedule next season instead of an 18-game double round-robin.
Also starting in 2019-20, all WCC schools will be required to play a multi-team event each season, play more home games than road games and play no more than two non-Division I opponents. The league also must approve all “guarantee” games, when an opponent pays a WCC school to play on the road.
In addition, they’re changing their conference tournaments to make it even more likely for the top seeds to win.
The league also is changing the format of the men’s and women’s tournaments. The seventh through 10th seeds will play in the opening round with the two winners meeting the fifth and sixth in the second round. The winners of those games will play the third and fourth seeds in the third round. The top two seeds will get byes straight to the semifinals.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/22924726/william-strampel-former-boss-larry-nassar-michigan-state-arrested-michigan
Larry Nassar’s former boss was arrested.
William Strampel, who served as the dean of Michigan State’s osteopathic medical school for most of Nassar’s time with the university, was listed as an inmate at Ingham County Jail on Monday night. No specific charges were posted Monday night, and a message left with a spokesman for the state police was not immediately returned.
Michigan Attorney General Bill Schuette has scheduled a news conference for Tuesday afternoon.
Attorney John C. Manly, who represents more than 150 survivors of Nassar’s abuse, issued a statement Monday.
“Our clients are encouraged by the Attorney General’s action today,” Manly said in the statement. “It demonstrates that he is serious about investigating the systemic misconduct at MSU that led to the largest child sex abuse scandal in history and holding the responsible parties accountable.”
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Strampel was a focal point for the attorney general’s ongoing investigation into whether any other individuals who worked at Michigan State should be held accountable for allowing Nassar to sexually abuse his patients for nearly two decades as a doctor on the university’s campus.
It’s a long article with all sorts of allegations of sexual harassment and other fireable offenses, but no details on what specific crimes he may have committed. Presumably something like being an accomplice. It doesn’t sound like he’s been accused of any sexual or physical crimes himself.
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He allegedly had nude photos of students on his work computer:
https://apnews.com/48fe8a20616d4a78b1f6f94b6ffb47bd
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http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/03/william_strampel_larry_nassars.html#incart_river_index
Here’s another detailed piece about it.
Strampel, 70, faces one count of misconduct of a public official, a felony punishable by 5 years in prison and/or a $10,000 fine; one count of fourth-degree criminal sexual conduct, a high court misdemeanor punishable by two years and/or a $500 fine; and two counts of willful neglect of duty, a misdemeanor punishable by one year and/or a $1,000 fine.
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According to an affidavit submitted in support of the charges, four women allege Strampel harassed them with actions such as: Requiring a female medical student to turn around in circles so he could observe her body; asking one female student what he had to teach her to be submissive and subordinate to men; and grabbing the buttocks of two female students.
Strampel’s work computer contained approximately 50 photos of “bare vaginas,” nude women, semi-nude women, sex toys and pornography, in addition to pornographic videos and a video of Nassar performing a “treatment” on a young patient.
He violated MSU’s Acceptable Use Policy, the affidavit alleges, and abused the authority of his public office to solicit, receive and possess pornography images of women who appear to be MSU students.
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Following the arraignment proceedings, Strampel’s attorney, John Dakmak, said his client denies inappropriately touching anyone or offering increased standing at the university in return for sexual favors.
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Strampel was in charge of the department when a 2014 Title IX complaint and police report was lodged against Nassar by Amanda Thomashow. He sent an email putting Nassar back to work with a series of conditions, including having another person in the room when he was performing procedures in sensitive areas and using gloves.
According to statements from Nassar’s more direct supervisors in a March 2017 police report, Strampel did not make Nassar’s colleagues aware of the conditions. Another 20 women have said they were molested by Nassar after Strampel allowed him to return to work in 2014.
Dakmak said Strampel followed the letter of the law during the Title IX investigation and said it was “actually the responsibility of the Title IX investigator” to ensure Nassar was following the protocol.
I’m not sure that having porn on his computer is a crime. A fireable offense for sure, but not a crime. The treatment video is a gray area because he’ll presumably claim it’s a medical procedure and thus relevant to his work to have. They’ll have to prove that he didn’t or couldn’t reasonably believe it to be a medical procedure.
If he grabbed anyone’s butt that is a crime. They’ll have to have proof, though. Maybe some of the lawyers here can speak to what sort of liability issues this might raise for MSU.
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Could it be that no one who reads this blog or posts on it has any interest in NCAA basketball? Is it a cult sport?
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More likely explanation is that the last blog post was a year ago and loading this thread takes way too long. Not much traffic here, I would guess.
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Waiting for Godot…err, actual P5 realignment news.
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Yeah, it has been a while. Frank said back in December (IIRC) that he’d have a new post coming but I’m guessing work and/or family got in the way.
I say we demand a refund.
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I’m not a huge fan of college hoops anymore, but I’ll link something if it seems newsworthy or relevant here. I won’t post stuff just about games or polls, though. All that matters anymore is the tournament and that gets sufficient coverage elsewhere.
We have had a few comments about hoops on here in March. But considering Frank’s blog is more about the business of sports and realignment, most hoops articles aren’t very relevant. Football brings a lot more money and has more fans during the season so we talk about it more. It also drives many of the major changes in college athletics on the business side.
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Loyola’s run show how bad the NCAA selection process has become in favoring the big conferences.
https://sports.yahoo.com/loyola-chicagos-final-four-run-reveals-flaws-ncaa-tournaments-selection-process-034007234.html
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I think part of the problem is that the NCAA’s goal isn’t necessarily what the fans think it is or should be. The goal isn’t to get the 68 best teams, obviously, but they theoretically aim for the 68 most deserving teams. The question is how to quantify which teams are deserving.
Criterion #1 is winning your conference’s tournament. That vastly favors the small conferences as probably 12-16 teams every year get in solely because the rules require it.
As they look into other metrics to pick at-larges, why wouldn’t they in turn favor the big schools? These are schools that are among the 68 best teams but might be left out for small conference champs.
But there is no perfect way to pick the at-larges. The problem for small conference schools is that they play a lot of crappy teams and few or no elite teams. It’s hard to know how to rate them when other teams are playing a lot of elite teams. It’s become common for people to use a team’s best wins as a way to estimate their ceiling and feel that teams with the highest ceiling are the most deserving.
Another issue is that realignment has seen fewer quality teams left in the smaller conferences.
Things always go in cycles with the tournament, though. The committee may start to prioritize a different metric. The past 3 years were bad for smaller conferences (3 at-larges each year), perhaps as a reaction to the previous 3 years (28 in 3 years) where many felt too many power conference teams were left out.
One big complaint is the little guys want to see the big guys forced to play road games at the little guys. That’s never going to happen. It makes zero financial sense for the big guys who are working really hard to cover their budgets as is. They don’t owe the little guys home games.
I agree that the committee’s criteria for selection could use review, but I also don’t feel sorry for a regular season champ that loses in their conference tournament. They chose to have that tournament knowing what the consequences could be.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22935229/nfl-outlaws-hit-crown-helmet
The NFL will finally ban hitting with the crown of the helmet. They won’t eject players for it yet, but it will get 15 yards. Hopefully players coming from college will be used to not targeting and won’;t start doing it in the NFL anymore.
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http://variety.com/2018/tv/news/espn-trouble-jimmy-pitaro-streaming-service-ratings-disney-1202736283/
An in depth look at ESPN push to conquer the digital side in order to secure their future.
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22944176/nfl-competition-committee-says-kickoffs-made-safer-recommend-eliminating-it
The NFL is threatening to eliminate kickoffs entirely if they don’t become safer.
At this week’s owners meetings, the league’s medical department presented statistics showing that concussions are five times as likely to happen on kickoffs as on an average play, according to Green Bay Packers president Mark Murphy — who is a member of the competition committee. That rate has remained steady even after a rule change, made permanent at this meeting, to bring touchbacks back to the 25-yard line.
“We’ve reduced the number of returns,” Murphy told a small group of reporters, “but we haven’t really done anything to make the play safer.”
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The message for the group, Murphy said, would be: “If you don’t make changes to make it safer, we’re going to do away with it. It’s that serious. It’s by far the most dangerous play in the game.”
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Part of the committee’s concern, Murphy said, was that concussions continue to occur even on touchbacks. So while the rule moving the touchback to the 25-yard line has reduced the overall rate of returns, the action before the touchback has still proved to be dangerous.
“The other thing that’s kind of frustrating,” he said, “is there were concussions on touchbacks. So even though there’s no return, [the committee is] looking at what kind of things you can do to make sure people were aware that there’s not even a return. You see this, too: One player lets up, the player covering lets up, and one of the blockers comes over and, you know. That creates problems when you’ve got one player going half-speed and the other one full speed.”
One of the new pro leagues has already said they won’t have kickoffs. I know fans like the excitement of a big return, but I don’t think the risk/reward ratio is appropriate. I’d love to see college football take the lead and eliminate kickoffs. Just spot the ball at the 25 and play. You can replace onside kicks with an optional 4th and 15 play from the 35 yard line if you need end of game excitement.
Frankly, punts should probably also go away for the same reasons. And extra point attempts.
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An update on Cal’s financial issues in the AD.
Cal unleashed a torrent of information this week, in the form of multiple teleconferences, a five-page letter from Chancellor Carol Christ to the university community and a 62-page analysis of the athletic department from a consultant, Collegiate Sports Associates.
Some highlights:
* CSA estimated Cal could save $8M per year by dropping from 30 to 16 sports. Unfortunately that would likely cost them $25M in donations from furious alumni, so a net loss of $17M and good will.
* Cal is switching prongs of the Title IX test to satisfy. They have been using sufficient interest, hence the 30 sports and a potential requirement to add more. They will start using proportionality which means cutting scholarships for men and/or adding them for women. CSA estimated it could involve 100-120 scholarships.
* Cal has to balance the budget by 2020. That means eliminating a $5-7M annual deficit. Increased revenue is part of the plan, with CSA suggesting selling naming rights to the stadium for up to $4M annually. CSA also suggests playing a neutral site football game every other year to earn another $2M.
* Cal’s internal financial processes are bad. Also, the AD more than repays the $5M it gets from the school through the internal taxation process. Thus, the AD doesn’t actually take money away from the school despite the common opinion of faculty and students.
“Often these transactions require departments to pay a percentage based upon revenues generated while actual costs incurred may exceed or trail the charged fee. In some transactions Intercollegiate Athletics is actually subsidizing the University at a rate higher than actual expenses. Adjusting from a percentage of costs to actual expenses, while problematic for the University can reduce IA’s annual expenditures by up to $6m by FY20.”
It sounds like good news on the financial side and bad news for male athletes outside of the revenue sports. I suppose Cal could cut scholarships without dropping teams if that keep the alumni happy.
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/03/michigan-cancels-2020-21-football-series-virginia-tech/
MI has dropped their upcoming home and home with VT in 2020-21. MI has a series with UW those same years and apparently doesn’t want 2 P5 games OOC. The cancellation will cost MI $375,000.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22958288/five-star-recruit-darius-bazley-decommit-syracuse-join-g-league
The first 5* star recruit has chosen to go straight to the G league. Add in others who have chosen to play overseas and it’s clear there already exist alternatives to college basketball for those who want them. Let’s take that excuse away from those who want to pay college players.
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https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900014381/has-the-wcc-done-enough-to-convince-gonzaga-to-stay.html
A columnist discusses whether or not the scheduling changes the WCC has proposed will be sufficient to keep Gonzaga in the conference rather than the MWC.
“It’s a first step, declaring the WCC wants Gonzaga to stay. Nobody wants them to go away. They are a big part of this league and have defined the WCC, and this is a significant step forward by the league’s presidents to show that desire.”
Gonzaga has been barking for a couple of years that more is needed from the WCC. In particular, the Zags want the bottom tier of the league to get tougher, make changes and not be such a drain on the league’s strength-of-schedule matrix.
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This past year, WCC athletic directors and basketball coaches hammered out this plan with research that included meeting with ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi. They tried to find a way to best “maximize opportunities” and get the most NCAA Tournament teams with the best possible seeds.
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The WCC needs Gonzaga. And Gonzaga stands to lose approximately $1.7 million paid over the next six years for NCAA Tournament units earned through the 2018 season if it leaves. Gonzaga earned almost all those credits, and they would not go to the MWC with it, just as Wichita State abandoned its paydays when the Shockers left the Missouri Valley Conference for the American Athletic Conference.
…
But would Gonzaga really gain that much in the MWC in terms of NCAA Tournament seeding? Maybe a hair or two from what was a two-bid league in 2018 with San Diego State and Nevada making the Big Dance.
More than ever, the NCAA Tournament is being geared for Power 5 entrants. A big leap for Gonzaga would be to find a basketball-only spot in a Power 5 conference. That would be worth busting relationships; a jump from the WCC to MWC may not.
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Exposure cannot be a major factor for Gonzaga because the Zags are already a popular team for league TV partner ESPN. Virtually all Gonzaga games were televised on one of ESPN’s stations or KHQ/Root this past season.
The Mountain West schools are making about $1.1 million from their deals with ESPN, CBS and AT&T Sports Net and have used streaming platforms like Facebook Live.
If the MWC got Gonzaga, it might be able to negotiate a bigger payout and throw more money at the Zags like it did Boise State in football. Well, maybe.
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http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/mar/24/decision-time-approaching-for-gonzaga-regarding-co/
The Gonzaga AD discusses possible MWC expansion.
“We’d like to be done with all this in the next couple weeks, but there is no deadline,” Gonzaga athletic director Mike Roth said. “The time crunch is self-imposed. We’re not getting any pressure. We’re going to do what’s right for Gonzaga.”
…
“We’re exploring our options, but the Mountain West has made it clear we could be a really good option from their perspective,” Roth said. “That being said, we’re still not there with what is best. We’re still trying to weigh it out and narrow down some of the factors. It’s been hard, because we’ve been really busy (with the NCAA Tournament).”
Roth said media speculation regarding the Mountain West, which has 11 basketball members, expanding to 14 or 16 teams has never been brought up in his talks with commissioner Craig Thompson. Roth also said rumors of a Gonzaga-BYU package deal are inaccurate.
If Gonzaga joined the Mountain West Conference, CBSsports.com estimated it would result in about $375,000 annually from the conference’s TV contract.
…
“Craig (Thompson) has done a lot of work recently trying to nail some things down. We’ve done a lot of due diligence, and we need to do more,” Roth said. “One thing we’ve been focusing on is to make the right decision and not worry about the time frame.”
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/gonzaga-to-the-mountain-west-zags-hope-to-reach-conference-decision-in-next-two-weeks/
More form Gonzaga’s AD.
However, four days after last year’s Final Four (April 7, 2017), Wichita State announced it was joining the American Athletic Conference. Using that time frame, Roth said time is running out for Gonzaga to make a move ahead of next season.
“We’re going to be closing on a window that is going to be making it difficult,” Roth said. “I think we’re into that crunch period for sure if we’re going to try to get it done for the fall of 2018. At the same time, we’re not going to rush the decision because of timing. ”
“In a perfect world, we’re going to be making a decision in the next couple of weeks here,” Roth added during the West Regional that concluded here Saturday. “But there is no such thing as perfect worlds in the crazy world of college athletics.”
Thompson said of Gonzaga, “We talked to them. A lot would have to happen between now and [a date close to] April 6. They’re done [with the season]. Hopefully they think about it now.”
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22956605/ranking-all-national-championship-teams
A ranking of all the NCAA hoops champions.
* Not surprisingly, 16 of the bottom 19 are from 1958 or earlier (tourney started in 1939). The 3 exceptions – 1988 KU, 1985 Villanova, 1983 NCSU.
* The best decades were the 60s and 70s with 13 of the top 20 teams.
* Recent years were lower because fewer stars stayed for their senior years.
Top teams:
1. 1972 UCLA*
2. 1976 IN*
3. 1973 UCLA*
4. 1956 USF*
5. 1968 UCLA
6. 1967 UCLA*
7. 1966 UTEP
8. 1957 UNC*
9. 1982 UNC
10. 1974 NCSU
* – undefeated
Other undefeated:
18. 1964 UCLA
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https://www.ncaa.com/news/icehockey-men/article/2018-03-29/college-hockey-big-ten-drawing-attention-heading-2018-frozen
This season makes it hard to say that creating Big Ten hockey was a bad thing overall. The first 4 years didn’t go well, with just five NCAA tournament wins combined (3 during MN’s 2014 run to the title game). But this year the B10 has 3 of the 4 teams in the Frozen Four.
Minnesota was one of two teams along with Wisconsin to get into the NCAA tournament during the league’s first two seasons. In 2014-15 and 15-16, the Big Ten was a one-bid league before landing three teams in last year’s tournament. No Big Ten team in the last three years has reached the Frozen Four.
Now the Big Ten is making history. The 2018 Frozen Four is the fifth to feature three or more teams from the same league — the WCHA in 2005 is the only league to claim all four spots — beating the NCHC to the club after it put two teams in each of the last three Frozen Fours.
While those outside the Big Ten may be shocked by the league’s success this season, its members are not.
The Frozen Four takes place next weekend in St. Paul. The semifinals are on Thursday 4/5 and the title game on Saturday 4/7.
1-seed OSU plays 3-seed Minnesota-Duluth in game 1
1-seed ND plays 2-seed MI in game 2
For those who forgot, B10 hockey added ND last summer. They won the regular season title and the B10 tournament.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/22975930/baylor-bears-paid-former-football-coach-art-briles-151-million-ouster
The numbers are out. Baylor paid Art Briles $15.1M and Ken Starr $4.5M to go away.
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http://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22973209/women-final-four-arike-ogunbowale-notre-dame-fighting-irish-get-redemption-stunner-uconn-huskies
For the second year in a row, a 36-0 UConn team lost in the women’s final four by 2 on a last second shot in OT. Notre Dame is no Cinderella as all 4 1-seeds made the final four and ND has been to the NCG 5 times since 2011. But this does show that at least a few teams can compete with UConn. The lack of quality depth of teams in WBB is still a problem, though.
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As expected, Cinderella’s run is over as Michigan beat Loyola.
Will MI extend the B10’s losing streak in the NCG to 7? It’s been 18 years since the B10 last won the title (2000 MSU). MI will be a definite underdog, though.
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Villanova opened as a 6.5 point favorite. That’s the biggest line since Duke -7 versus Butler in 2010.
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https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/28/17173524/podcast-aint-played-nobody-fandom-why-bother
The “Podcast ain’t played nobody” podcast featuring Bill Connelly and his co-host discusses a lot of CFB topics. This episode is over 80 minutes.
Notes:
* The first 30+ minutes discusses an article in The Atlantic that discusses if fandom is worth it (it mentions all the health risks, etc).
* Around the 42 minute mark they start to discuss how to have better G5 bowl games. Bill C. suggests treating the top G5 teams like the NY6 and have a committee pair them to make the best games rather than using strict tie-ins. (this is the reason I’m mentioning the podcast)
Other topics:
* There’s still a lot of ass in the Big Ten
* The difference between not caring and not giving a damn
* Buffalo might be the most interesting team in the MAC this year
Listener questions (among others):
* Predicting Nebraska’s spring game attendance
* FCS football in the spring? Nah
* Why does the Sun Belt have a title game?
* Better job: USC or Bama?
* Ndamukong Suh and maximizing your matchup advantages
* What’s Brenaska?
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-athletics/2018/03/92174/the-dynasty-continues-ohio-state-synchronized-swimming-captures-31st-national-title
Maybe MI can continue the momentum the B10 has had lately in winter sports.
Wrestling – PSU national title (2. OSU, 3. IA, 4t. MI)
Pistol – OSU national title
Synchronized swimming – OSU national title
M hockey – 3 in the Frozen Four (next weekend)
W bowling – #1 seed NE (in 2 weeks)
M gymnastics – 7 of top 10 in poll (in 3 weeks)
Close:
W hockey – 2 in the final four
Fencing – #3 OSU, #4 PSU
M swimming & diving – #3 IN
W swimming & diving – #4 MI
That’s not every winter sport, but it is most of them.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22993093/michigan-coach-john-beilein-believes-school-honor-fab-five-future
John Beilein said he believes UM will officially honor the Fab Five at some point in the future. They agreed to vacate the wins and aren’t allowed to raise the banners, but there are lots of other ways they could honor the guys that wouldn’t violate the NCAA decree I suppose. The players were forced to be disassociated from UM for 10 years, but that ended in 2012.
Jalen Rose has been campaigning to put the banners back up but the NCAA ruling directly forbade that. Chris Webber is the one player that really has had nothing to do with the school or the other players since he left.
“We love the Fab Five, and we continue to reach out to the Fab Five and that team,” Beilein said Sunday at a news conference prior to Monday’s national title matchup against Villanova. “It wasn’t just five guys on that team, now. That was a team of champions as well. … When you have the NCAA violations in there, that’s a time that it takes some time to heal. But I’m looking forward to the times when we get everybody in that group together and all of that isn’t under our control, if you understand that.”
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Beilein seemed to reference the rift with Webber on Sunday.
“And if invitations are sent and they’re not accepted, then that’s OK,” he said. “We just keep doing it. But one day, The Supremes, ‘One day, we’ll be together.’ We’ll get it all together at one time.”
I think the school should be above trying to honor a team caught cheating so massively. It wasn’t just 1 or 2 guys, it was all of them and they got caught.
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http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/aztecs/sd-sp-gonzaga-mountain-west-wcc-20180331-story.html
It’s looking like Gonzaga will stay in the WCC, at least for 1 more year.
“For next season, it doesn’t look promising,” Thompson said shortly before Loyola Chicago and Michigan tipped off in the first semifinal at the Alamodome. “I’d put it like this: Today is today, none of us can predict tomorrow.
“We’re going to continue to grow our league. We’ll keep improving ourselves and see what happens.”
Gonzaga athletic director Mike Roth told the Spokesman-Review newspaper in Spokane, Wash., that, while they were leaning toward remaining in the WCC, negotiations were still ongoing and there had been tentative plans for another meeting early next week.
“We collectively have not made a final commitment,” Roth said Saturday. “We have not told the WCC we’ve made a final decision.”
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“You look at what the West Coast Conference did to accommodate them,” Thompson said. “Congratulations, that’s a good deal for them. There are just some things in there that I don’t think our membership would have accepted.
“They’re offering some things that probably don’t make sense for our league. Most conferences are adding games. They’re going to fewer games. We’ve increased our (NCAA Tournament) unit bonus, but what I’m hearing they’re doing, we’re not going to do that.”
…
“They’re much more favorable to ESPN,” Thompson said of Gonzaga. “They can carve out a portion of their own (TV) package. People in our conference are still questioning why Boise State has a carve-out in football (with ESPN), so I know that doesn’t fly.”
BYU has to be relieved.
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A look at high school basketball “recruiting”. The Ranney School is a small private school in Monmouth County, NJ (at the Jersey shore), with no history of athletic success. A “team parent” named Brian Klatsky founded what has become one of the top AAU teams in the country and a feeder for the Ranney School. Next year Ranney will have the number 6 and number 7 ranked players in the country on its team. Klatsky’s son is a junior on the team.
It may have helped that Klatsky owns a house which he rents to the family of one of the players and a condo rented to the other player. All parties claim that fair market rent is being paid.
https://projects.nj.com/investigations/kingmaker/#incart_target2box_default_#incart_target2box_targeted_
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https://sports.yahoo.com/can-condoleezza-rice-save-college-basketball-014951950.html
A detailed look at the work the Rice commission is doing in trying to reform college basketball.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/04/02/espn-launch-april-espn-plus-streaming-service/478560002/
ESPN+ launches on 4/12.
ESPN’s new streaming service will launch April 12 and will include daily MLB and NHL games, along with other sports offerings for $4.99 per month, the network announced Monday.
The service, called ESPN+, will be available in an upcoming update to ESPN’s main app on various platforms. ESPN+, which can be purchased for $49.99 per year, will also feature more than 250 MLS games, live coverage of 31 PGA Tour events, Top Rank Boxing on ESPN (including Amir Khan vs. Phil Lo Greco on April 21), “thousands of live college sports events” from non-power conferences and some of ESPN’s original content like 30 for 30.
Since the NHL regular season concludes this weekend, games won’t be available on ESPN+ until the 2018-19 season. (NBC Sports has exclusive rights to broadcast the Stanley Cup Playoffs.)
…
ESPN+ will not include streaming of ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNews or ESPN Classic, or the sports broadcast on those channels – like live NFL, NBA, MLB and college games. That still requires an existing cable, satellite or over-the-top subscription (from Sling TV, DirecTV Now or similar services). The same goes for ESPN’s daily and weekly shows like Pardon the Interruption.
ESPN does, however, plan to develop shows that will be exclusive to ESPN+ subscribers.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/22932069/michigan-state-spartans-acknowledge-travis-walton-was-employee-say-now-handle-2010-allegation-differently
MSU is changing their tune about Travis Walton.
Michigan State officials have provided more information about how the university handled an allegation of sexual assault in 2010 involving former student-assistant basketball coach Travis Walton, telling Outside the Lines that administrators would “handle it differently” if such an allegation were made today.
The university also has provided personnel documents that show Walton has held multiple jobs with the university; MSU officials had previously told ESPN that no such records existed. Walton also had denied he was ever employed by the university.
In late January, Outside the Lines reported that Walton was allowed to continue working under coach Tom Izzo while facing a criminal charge for allegedly punching a female MSU student at a bar in January 2010. That summer, another female student accused Walton and two basketball players of having sexually assaulted her in April of that year, according to a university document.
Walton has denied that he sexually assaulted anyone. He never faced sexual assault charges related to the 2010 allegation. He also denied punching the other woman; that case was dismissed in lieu of him pleading to a civil infraction for littering.
The April 2010 sexual assault allegation involving Walton became public in January after Outside the Lines obtained a letter written by former Michigan State sexual assault counselor Lauren Allswede. The woman did not report the incident to police, but according to Allswede’s letter, the woman’s parents did report the incident to representatives of the athletic department, including then-athletic director Mark Hollis. The letter states that Hollis said he would “conduct his own investigation.”
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Neither Hollis nor associate athletic director Alan Haller reported the incident to MSU’s Title IX investigators at the time, Guerrant said. Officials in such positions have been required by federal law to report such incidents to a Title IX office for investigation; it wasn’t until 2011, though, that federal education officials put out specific reporting guidelines in response to universities confused by the existing law and struggling with compliance.
It seems like whether or not someone worked at the school should be a fact that’s easy to establish. It’s worrisome that MSU had to backtrack on something so basic.
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http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/apr/02/gonzaga-athletic-director-mike-roth-says-zags-stay/#/0
It’s official. Gonzaga is staying in the WCC.
Gonzaga President Thayne McCulloh and Roth met Monday to make a final decision.
“Our decision is to remain in the WCC, where we’ve had a great relationship for 39 years going on 40,” Roth said. “We appreciate the Mountain West pursuing us. However, for a number of reasons, maintaining our status in the WCC is the right thing for Gonzaga University.”
…
“We’ve completed all the discussions with the Mountain West at this point and time,” Roth said. “Could it resurface as part of the evaluation of the future? That’s a crystal ball I can’t look into.”
…
“The WCC made decisions over the last couple months that are going to be very positive not just for Gonzaga but everyone in our league from the standpoint of opportunities,” Roth said.
…
“You look at what the West Coast Conference did to accommodate them,” Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson told the San Diego newspaper Saturday. “Congratulations, that’s a good deal for them. There are just some things in there that I don’t think our membership would have accepted.
“They’re offering some things that probably don’t make sense for our league.”
…
“Look at what we have achieved as members of the WCC,” said Roth, adding that GU is encouraged by efforts of conference schools to strengthen their programs. “We made it to the national championship game. We have goals that are still out there and we’ll continue to chase those as members of the WCC.”
Roth stressed that Gonzaga will continue to monitor what’s happening nationally regarding conference movement.
“I don’t think our stance has changed from that standpoint,” he said. “That’s just part of doing my job. That’s not unique to Gonzaga. That will go on.”
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/five-radical-ideas-improve-ncaa-tournament.html
5 ways to “improve” the NCAA tournament.
1. Give an autobid to last year’s NIT winner
This would do more to help the NIT I think. As much as college teams can change from year to year, I’m not sure you can justify this.
2. Teams must finish above 0.500 in conference play to get an at-large bid.
I get the sentiment but I’m not sure over 0.500 is necessary. Maybe be 0.500 or better, or in the top half of your conference (so no punishment for having elite teams in your conference).
3. Only P5 teams in the play-in games.
I think play-in games should be only for 16-seeds and only for small conferences. That is by far their best chance to win a tournament game and the extra revenue share that comes with it (a 16-seed that wins the play-in and loses to the 1-seed gets 2 shares). Those extra dollars mean a lot to the small conferences and essentially nothing to the P5.
4. Move the title game to Sunday at 6pm so people can see it (move the semis to Thursday night).
I fully agree. Starting a game at 9:20 ET is a great way to make sure kids in the east don’t see it. A lot of adults need to go to bed before the game ends, too.
5. Get Jay Bilas and Jay Williams on the coverage.
Meh. I don’t care much about announcers as long as they aren’t Gus Johnson.
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/04/ncaa-national-championship-ratings-overnights-low/
The title game did poorly in the ratings. Apparently having a blowout that starts late and is on cable isn’t a good thing. Who knew?
Airing on cable for the second time, an anti-climactic NCAA Tournament final hit a record-low in the overnights.
Monday’s Villanova-Michigan NCAA Tournament national championship earned a 10.3 overnight rating across TBS, TNT and TruTV, according to Sports Business Daily reporter Austin Karp — down 29% from last year on CBS (UNC-Gonzaga: 14.5) and down 14% from 2016 on the Turner networks (Villanova-UNC: 12.0).
The 10.3 is easily the lowest on record for college basketball’s national championship, falling below the previous mark of 11.2 in 2004 (UConn-GT). Villanova has now played in two of the five lowest rated title games in the metered markets, with their 2016 win over UNC ranking fifth. Both of the Wildcats’ wins aired on cable.
Per Karp, Villanova’s rout peaked at an 11.5 — six full points lower than last year’s peak of 17.5. Overnights fell to a mere 7.0 in the final 15 minutes.
…
Notably, Monday’s overnight was only barely the highest of this year’s NCAA Tournament. The Duke-Kansas regional final had a 10.1 on CBS.
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https://womensplace.osu.edu/glass-breakers/2018-glass-breakers
OSU won the B10 indoor track and field title in February. That’s OSU’s first B10 IT&F title in over 25 years, but that’s not what was noteworthy. With the title, OSU’s coach Karen Dennis became the first female collegiate coach to win a men’s title.
How long until a woman wins a title in men’s hoops? Becky Hammon broke the barrier to a woman coaching in the NBA. She could get a college head coaching job if she wanted one.
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I expect the first woman to coach Division I men’s hoops will be at a lower-profile program from a small conference, e.g., St. Francis of Brooklyn, Wagner or the like. At that level, schools have little to lose, so why not try? It would be too much to risk at a P5 institution to be first to do it in all of Div. I.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23027901/former-michigan-state-football-players-accept-plea-deal-sexual-assault-case
Three former MSU players that complained about MSU’s title IX investigations and a lack of due process just accepted a plea deal for felony charges but with no jail time.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/23029011/michigan-state-basketball-player-brock-washington-charged-assault
And a current MSU hoops player has been charged with assault after people at MSU defended him.
Washington was charged under Michigan penal code 750.81 — “assault or assault and battery” — on March 8, according to the criminal history database for the Michigan State Police. The 19-year-old walk-on from Southfield, Michigan, had been named as the lone suspect in an alleged assault that Michigan State campus police last fall classified as fourth-degree criminal sexual conduct, sources close to the investigation told Outside the Lines in February.
The case number from the State Police database corresponds to a report in MSU’s Clery Crime and Fire Log, which shows that a forcible sexual contact incident occurred at 3 a.m. on Aug. 29, 2017, in a university residence hall and was reported to police two days later. Sources have told Outside the Lines that a female student told campus police that Washington had groped her without her permission.
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On Feb. 6, Outside the Lines submitted a public records request for the police report naming Washington; MSU officials asked for an extension, which under Michigan law gave the school until Feb. 28 to respond. On March 7, a day before Washington was formally charged, MSU responded by denying the request. Interim president John Engler upheld that decision last week in a response to an ESPN appeal of that denial, writing that he could not give the specific reason as to why the report was being withheld, because “even naming this statute gives information that the statute specifically was designed to protect.”
In Michigan, an individual accused of a crime can plead guilty to a variety of offenses — including certain felonies — and have the records of the plea and other court proceedings sealed and kept from public view via a handful of deferred judgment programs. One of the deferral options commonly given to college students is known as the Holmes Youthful Trainee Act, under which eligible offenders ages 17 to 23 can avoid having criminal convictions on their records as long as they plead guilty to a crime covered under the act and successfully adhere to court-ordered supervision or probation terms for a set period of time, after which their cases are dismissed.
…
Washington suited up for coach Tom Izzo’s team every game this season, but as a younger member of an elite team, he did not receive any playing time. In October, Izzo said Washington and another walk-on “are capable of playing someplace” but were, at the time, shining as scout-team players, according to a tweet from a Detroit Free Press reporter. Izzo was not made available to comment for this story.
After a Michigan State University board of trustees meeting in February, Engler, the university interim president, criticized Outside the Lines’ reporting on Washington, saying, “The sad thing is, I think we should, probably as a Michigan State community, apologize to this young man and his family who has been named without, at least in that report, any evidence of any wrongdoing.”
I don’t think Engler is helping MSU’s cause by making these types of statements. It’s a typical response for a politician but I don’t think it’s the right approach in this instance.
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https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ncaaf/asu/2018/04/03/asu-football-herm-edwards-warns-cuts-scholarship-players/483571002/
Herm Edwards is threatening his scholarship players with roster cuts.
Edwards told his players before they began the fourth week of spring practice that cuts likely are coming, including to some with scholarships if performance dictates after the spring game April 13.
Edwards, an NFL head coach for eight years, then repeated that message to the media after practice, saying any scholarship players who are cut would retain their financial aid if they opt to stay at ASU as a student.
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“I told some guys who continue to stay in the training room, you’ve got no tape. I can’t grade you if you’re not on tape. All of a sudden, guys got well. It’s amazing. Sometimes these players think with 85 scholarships, I’m good. You’re not good. You’ve earned a scholarship because of your ability to be a student-athlete. It’s a combination of both. When you don’t meet that standard, there’s consequences. Consequences are sometimes tough. If I don’t apply those consequences, then I’m not doing my job as head coach.”
…
“You’re accountable to compete every day,” Edwards said. “You don’t lose your scholarship, you lose the ability to play. It’s always worked that way in football. That’s how you become a competitive team. You want to get in the two-deep. You should want to play. You don’t want to sit four years and sit the bench.”
Edwards said having fewer players short term due to cuts would not hurt because, typically, 45 players are used in a game.
That first quote is where this becomes problematic. A coach shouldn’t be threatening injured players. That’s probably going to come back to bite ASU in a lawsuit sooner rather than later. Players being rushed back onto the field while still injured is already a problem in CFB. Why would you do it publicly?
My second issue is with his player count. Only 45 players used in a game? Is he ignoring special teams entirely? This isn’t the NFL. I looked up the number of OSU players that played in each game last season: 58, 66, 65, 70, 59, 73, 66, 54, 60, 66, 57, 57, 75, 58 (not in game order). The lower numbers are from the closer games and/or road games, but OSU never played fewer than 54 players. And when you add in injuries, you couldn’t play the same 54 players every game either. I know OSU has more quality depth than ASU, but using so few players seems risky to me.
I also wonder if he understands the potential impacts on recruiting. Will those cut players still count against his 85 total? Will future recruits want to risk getting cut? I understand wanting to motivate your players to do their best but he’s treading a very fine line here.
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It seems to me that a player on an athletic scholarship who is cut either loses the scholarship or counts toward the 85. It would be way too easy to cheat by cutting bottom players, letting them keep their athletic aide, but not counting toward 85. I think that this is a dumb approach. It is not the NFL where you cut a player and replace him, even if he still gets paid, with some sort of cap hit.
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I agree, especially since all P12 schools now give 4-year scholarships. Unless he has some way around this that wasn’t mentioned, he could end up with a lot of “empty” scholarships in a few years (esp. if he cuts freshmen).
As long as the kid gives appropriate effort, any lack of performance is the coach’s fault for poor scouting and poor coaching.
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Coaches run kids off now, but usually between seasons. Many surprise transfers are a result of coach letting them know “their” playing time will be better used developing other players. Or a change in def/off scheme doesn’t fit the player’s skill set.
Wonder if he ran this by the AD or admin? Does seem problematic, and an opening for under the table assistance to rear its head if a desired athlete was available but several “deadbeat” scholarships are being used. I wonder who would endow such a scholarship?
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Usually you encourage them to transfer when you need to get down to 85 or before NSD. Many will choose to transfer after spring ends if they sense they won’t play much in fall. But if you cut a player, they probably aren’t going to get many offers from other schools. They’d likely have to drop down a level. There’d be a temptation to not transfer just to force the school to eat the scholarship. It’s still a free college degree after all, and ASU is a party school so it wouldn’t be a bad way to spend the time.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23094539/arizona-state-herm-edwards-threatens-cut-players-packed-in
An update on the cuts at ASU. Players he cuts this year don’t have to count against the 85.
“People think I’m taking their scholarship away and running them off,” Edwards said. “I’m not running them off at all. Some of them ain’t good enough. It’s no one’s fault, but it’s like, ‘Hey, man, what are we doing here?’
“I’m just being honest. I’m telling the truth. Here’s how it works, guys.”
Edwards said he isn’t worried about potential cuts putting the Sun Devils behind in scholarship numbers because of an NCAA rule that allows first-year head coaches to retain numbers lost from cuts by backfilling them with their next recruiting class if those players don’t play for the new coach and were already on scholarship under the previous coach. In that situation, players who are cut do not count toward the 85 scholarships limit.
NCAA bylaw 15.5.1.6 states: A student-athlete who receives athletically related institutional financial aid in subsequent academic years after the departure of a head coach from the institution is not a counter, provided:
• (a) The student-athlete participated in the applicable sport and received athletically related institutional financial aid during the coach’s tenure at the institution; and
• (b) The student-athlete does not participate in the applicable sport during subsequent academic years at the institution.
“This is how it works. I didn’t invent the rule, it’s in the book,” Edwards said. “That’s not nothing we’re making up. That’s a rule.”
I still don’t like him threatening injured players.
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https://deadspin.com/how-big-colleges-prey-on-fan-loyalty-to-fight-back-agai-1823903554
It’s a good look at the dark side of fandom and how schools build that loyalty so they can then use it to shelter from scandals.
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http://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/index.ssf/2018/04/chip_kelly_willie_taggart_mari.html#incart_river_index
Which new coaches are most likely to succeed at their new schools.
Among the many emails former Tennessee athletic director John Currie received when he began to search for a coach to replace Butch Jones was one from an Alabama athletic department staffer with the subject “Head Coaching Analysis.”
It included six pages of charts, graphs, numbers and pictures that told the story of every head coach hired since 2000 by the “Top 25 historic football programs,” determined by using decades of The Associated Press rankings.
Using a weighted formula that combined winning percentage, percentage of top-10 finishes in the AP poll and percentage of seasons winning a national championship, and putting extra emphasis on the most recent five seasons, each coach’s stint at a school was given an efficiency rating.
What the numbers revealed was mostly what we already know: Nick Saban is doing great at Alabama; Urban Meyer’s tenure at Ohio State has been excellent; and hiring Pete Carroll worked out really well for Southern California.
The numbers also showed that coaches most likely to succeed at those schools had previous Power Five head coaching experience. Also, coaches who were previously a Power Five assistant had higher efficiency ratings than coaches who were previously a head coach at a Group of Five school.
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USA Today has announced its high school boys All America team. Four of the five first team All Americans have committed to Duke.
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Duke has had the #1 recruiting class 4 of the past 5 years. Their recent on court performance has been a little disappointing considering their recruiting.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/nike-illinois-syracuse-football-uniforms.html
For some reason, Illinois has decided to start wearing Syracuse’s old football uniforms.
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http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/di-committee-academics-considers-transfer-rule-changes
The NCAA is proposing some major changes for transfers.
The Division I Committee on Academics will recommend to the Transfer Working Group that four-year transfer student-athletes who meet specific grade-point average and progress-toward-degree requirements be able to compete immediately at the second school.
The academic data reviewed by the committee indicated that, on average, sitting out a year of competition following a transfer may not be academically necessary for student-athletes with a strong scholastic foundation. As a result, the committee will recommend benchmarks that align with successful academic progress after transfer.
Committee members agreed those benchmarks should include a GPA between 3.0 and 3.3 and a requirement that students be academically eligible for competition at the time of transfer, based on their progress toward earning a degree within five years of initial enrollment.
The group considered adjusting those requirements to put transfer students who want to compete immediately on a track to graduate in four years. But it ultimately opted to keep the rule the same for transfers and nontransfers. Current academic progress rules keep students on a track to graduate in five years.
Data show that, regardless of their sport, transfers with GPAs below 3.0 are most at risk for taking longer to graduate — or not graduating at all.
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Members also considered setting different academic standards depending on whether the student was transferring after their freshman, sophomore, junior or senior year. The conversation was confined to undergraduate transfers. Ultimately, the group agreed on a single GPA benchmark for all student-athletes that predicts a high likelihood of graduation after transfer.
Committee members also considered endorsing a potential rule that would require all student-athletes to sit out a year of competition after transferring. But it agreed that data does not support requiring academically high-achieving student-athletes to sit out.
It’s not in the purview of this committee, but I’d add in that the player must be generally eligible to play at the time of transfer as well. A player in legal trouble or suspended from his current team shouldn’t get a free pass.
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After the B10 lost yet another title game in hoops, I thought it might be a good time to look at conference title droughts in the revenue sports.
Football
SEC: 2017 (AL)
ACC: 2016 (Clemson)
Big Ten: 2014 (OSU)
Big 12: 2005 (UT)
Pac-12: 2004 (USC)
Basketball
ACC: 2017 (UNC)
SEC: 2012 (UK)
Big 12: 2008 (KU)
Big Ten: 2000 (MSU)
Pac-12: 1997 (AZ)
Clearly the ACC has nothing to worry about for a while, and the SEC and B10 are fine in football. 5 of the 10 have reached a decade between titles which is a little surprising to me. Which drought ends first?
B12 football – OU has been closest, UT could get back there, several others (Baylor, TCU, OkSU) have gotten close but never over the hump. Short term I’d say OU is most likely but it could be a coin flip with UT.
P12 football – USC is their bell cow with 6 of their past 7 titles. UW is on the rise and Chip Kelly could do wonders at UCLA. Still, I’ll say USC until proven otherwise.
B12 hoops – KU. End of discussion. Someone else might do it, but KU is by far the best bet.
B10 hoops – MSU is the power until proven otherwise. Many other teams have done well but MSU has been the most consistently elite. Still, 6 different B10 schools have lost in the title game since MSU’s last title.
P12 hoops – Normally you’d say UCLA, but they’ve been down for a while. AZ is caught up in the hoops scandal. Those are their 2 marquee programs. Anyone else would be a surprise. I’ll say AZ because NCAA sanctions lately haven’t been tough to overcome.
I keep thinking B10 hoops has to break through soon since we keep making the title game. It’s getting harder to stay hopeful after this many losses, though. I think the B12 has pretty good odds of winning a title soon in either sport.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23060914/former-florida-south-carolina-head-coach-steve-spurrier-coach-orlando-team-alliance-american-football-league
The AAF has its first coach – Steve Spurrier will coach the Orlando team.
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https://www.si.com/vault/1982/07/26/624667/to-baffle-and-amaze
A great piece from SI in 1982 about Bill Walsh. It talks a lot about coaching philosophy, his and others.
Here he talks some B10 football:
Asked whether it is fair to call coaching differences conflicting ideologies, he says, “In the Midwest, there’s a philosophy or approach that people become students of, or parties to, personified by Woody Hayes and Bo Schembechler, which is based on fundamentals and disciplined play. Individual ability isn’t much of a factor. Not that players are clones, but parts of a unit that functions methodically. Certain precepts control it. In each situation here is what you do. It’s a sound approach, and the drills and appearance and values are similar from school to school. It’s predictable, but they feel comfortable with that. It’s as if one side says, ‘We know where you’re going and we’re going to stop you’ and the other side says, ‘We know you know, but no, you’re not.’ Success then is related to execution, to superior personnel. If you have the best players, you want to create a situation in which the best win, if only marginally. That’s conservative football—siege warfare. The somberness and drudgery can be overstated, of course. Hayes is an intelligent and scholarly man with more feeling for his players than almost anyone I’ve met. The problem is when an Indiana, say, without the personnel, tries again and again to compete that way. I’m not sure that such schools take full advantage of the game’s rules.”
He was also way ahead of the times in terms of safety concerns:
He was a running back and a sprinter at Hayward. He ran 10.0 for 100 yards and, more impressive, 22.0 for 220. His speed was cut his senior year, however, by a torn quadriceps muscle, an injury made more lasting by a track coach who did not appear to believe it was real. “It related to my personality,” says Walsh. “I was an easygoing, good-time guy. and I wasn’t writhing in pain.” You can see the scarred muscle in Walsh’s right thigh today, and, as with most things in his life, the lesson has not been lost. “It illustrates the weight of a coach’s responsibility,” he says, “especially in football, where emotions can run to a savage degree. There, it’s not just the danger of a pulled muscle, but of brain injury.”
And he started as a defensive guru:
Walsh’s vision began to clear in 1966, when Oakland hired him as backfield coach under Al Davis. Walsh, until then a defensive strategist (he had written his master’s thesis at San Jose State on stopping the pro-spread offense)
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When Woody Hayes was coaching he ate lunch every day in the Faculty Club. The coaching offices were in Ohio Stadium, then, and it was only a 10 min walk. He had another office in the History Department where he taught.
One day a friend of mine met up with Woody on his way to the Club, and they fell to talking. Woody asked my friend where he was from, and it turned out Woody had recruited a player from that town several years earlier, although the student never came to OSU. My friend knew the family (very small town), and Woody asked for updates. It turned out Woody knew something about nearly every member of the family, including uncles, aunts and cousins.
Everyone who ever met Woody (off the field, of course) always remarked on his openness and friendliness. Whatever his football theories, he was a great person. After he died, the extent of his philanthropy around Columbus became known and added to his prestige.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-wrestling/2018/04/92339/kyle-snyders-victory-seals-team-usas-first-mens-freestyle-world-cup-since-2003-snyder-and-logan-stieber-finish-7-1
Team USA won the wrestling World Cup this weekend for the first time in 15 years, defeating Azerbaijan in the finals. Iran was invited but chose not to participate.
Kyle Snyder was dominant as usual, winning all his matches by technical fall and only allowing one of four opponents to even score on him (10-0, 10-0, 10-0, 14-3).
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😊
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/23059794/lawsuit-michigan-state-alleges-basketball-players-raped-student-university-did-not-adequately-support-her
More sexual assault news at MSU.
A female student says Michigan State subjected her to a “hostile educational environment,” failed to advise her of her rights and did not offer adequate resources for help after she told counselors in 2015 that three Spartans basketball players had raped her.
…
The attorney, Karen Truszkowski, told Outside the Lines that her client has not reported the incident to police, but, “I cannot say that she’s not ever going to report it.” The woman spoke to Outside the Lines on the condition she not be identified because she fears revealing her identity publicly. The woman said she did not report the alleged assault to police in 2015 because she and some of her friends, who were younger than 21 at the time, had used fake IDs to get into a bar the night of the alleged incident and she worried they would all get cited with underage drinking charges.
…
The woman eventually told a friend what had happened, and on April 20, 2015, the friend took her to the Michigan State University Counseling Center, according to the lawsuit. When the woman told the counselor that the three men “were notable MSU athletes on the basketball team,” the counselor told her that she needed someone else in the room and brought in another person whose identity the woman said she did not know, the lawsuit states, and the “counselor’s demeanor completely changed.”
The lawsuit states that the counseling center staff made it clear to her that if she chose to notify police “she faced an uphill battle that would create anxiety and unwanted media attention and publicity as had happened with many other female students who were sexually assaulted by well-known athletes.”
She told Outside the Lines that she told the counselor about how she was scared to report the incident to police because she assumed she would get in trouble for underage drinking.
“She never told me or reassured me that that would not be a factor,” the woman told Outside the Lines.
The lawsuit states she was told, “If you pursue this, you are going to be swimming with some really big fish.”
The lawsuit states that the counseling staff did not notify her of her right to report the incident to MSU’s Office of Institutional Equity, which handles complaints of sexual violence under the Title IX gender equity law, nor did they notify her of her Title IX rights, protections and accommodations.
The woman told Outside the Lines that she was under the impression that by telling the counseling center staff about the alleged assault that she had indeed “reported it” to MSU, and she was unaware that she needed to do anything further to get help. As a result, the lawsuit states, she was not informed of her right to receive a no-contact order to keep the men out of her residence hall, and she suffered “panic and flashbacks” when she saw them in the dining hall.
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http://www.newsrecord.org/news/soaring-subsidies-uc-s-four-year-athletic-deficit-up-to/article_46de67b6-37a5-11e8-97ee-f740bda06336.html
A look at the athletic deficit at UC. The annual per student subsidy has risen from $738 in 2010 to $1238 in 2017. Of the public AAC schools, only UConn has a larger subsidy ($1784). At some point these schools need to make the financial decision to accept that they won’t make the P5 anytime soon and live within their means.
“We want national respect and the ability to play on the biggest stage possible,” Bohn told Fox19 in October 2015. “It’s really fun to be a part of. I feel like this is our time.”
While the UC Athletic Department has experienced a profound transformation under Bohn, it is not the one he intended. Deficits have soared and students are paying the price.
Between 2014 and 2017, the athletic department’s deficit totaled almost $102 million — a 33 percent increase over the prior four years, records show.
…
The News Record attempted on numerous occasions over six weeks to schedule an interview with [AD Mike] Bohn through a UC Athletic Department representative. Despite their assurances that a meeting with Bohn was forthcoming, they were unable to arrange the interview.
“It’s an investment, and it’s an investment in the enterprise on campus,” Bohn said of athletic subsidies in a 2015 interview with CityBeat. “It’s a strategic investment with a high return.”
He said he hoped to decrease the deficit.
“Our current strategy on our budget is to continue to generate as much revenue as we can externally,” Bohn said.
Since 2015, the athletic department’s deficit has increased by more than $3.5 million, and each student paid $123 more in 2017 than they did in 2015. Bohn did not see the decrease he said he had hoped for.
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The department’s total expenses for 2017 were $62.8 million, meaning student subsidies covered nearly 43 percent of their expenses, records show.
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The article is about UC. While Cincinnati has those problems, they do note that UConn is receiving $1,784 per student” Is that sustainable? UConn just hired Dan Hurley at $2.75 million. The problem is that they are planning on paying Hurley by not paying Kevin Ollie his $10 million buyout. The claim is that Ollie was fired for cause. Ollie is fighting this.
If Ollie wins even half of the money, there is no indication that UConn has the money to pay this “unfunded liability”. If Hurley can turn the men’s bball program back to the top, this may work. If not it could be a disaster. Certainly the State of CT does not have extra money.
At least UC seems to know what it owes. On the other hand, UConn is the only game in town in Connecticut, so there is likely a lot more political support for the Huskies than for the Bearcats.
There is a good argument that these two schools were the most screwed by not getting into a P5 and they are suffering for it now.
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Jersey Bernie,
“The article is about UC. While Cincinnati has those problems, they do note that UConn is receiving $1,784 per student” Is that sustainable?”
I don’t think it is sustainable long term. With all the discussion about student loan debt, excessive student fees to subsidize athletics has to be part of the discussion. I don’t believe that no money should go to sports, but the mandatory fee needs to be capped at a small percentage of tuition.
UConn:
Tuition = $12,848 (in state)
Fees = $2882 ($1784 for athletics, $1098 for other)
It seems silly that athletics costs 13% as much as your tuition and mandatory fees. Something like 5% ($686) seems like a reasonable cap that still provides a lot of money. Athletics are important to the college experience and for advertising the school, but students have enough financial pressure already.
“UConn just hired Dan Hurley at $2.75 million. The problem is that they are planning on paying Hurley by not paying Kevin Ollie his $10 million buyout. The claim is that Ollie was fired for cause. Ollie is fighting this.
If Ollie wins even half of the money, there is no indication that UConn has the money to pay this “unfunded liability”. If Hurley can turn the men’s bball program back to the top, this may work. If not it could be a disaster. Certainly the State of CT does not have extra money.”
I’m sure they’ll find the money if legally required to do so. They’ll borrow money at worst.
“At least UC seems to know what it owes. On the other hand, UConn is the only game in town in Connecticut, so there is likely a lot more political support for the Huskies than for the Bearcats.”
Especially since the state owns the football stadium, not the school. The state could choose to allocate more money to UConn to support athletics, though. Especially if theyre forcing the school to keep spending so much more than they can earn.
“There is a good argument that these two schools were the most screwed by not getting into a P5 and they are suffering for it now.”
I don’t think screwed is the right term. They came the closest to making the jump to P5 without getting in, but they weren’t owed a P5 place. You can’t definitively say they deserve one of the spots someone else received either. UC and UConn didn’t offer the B10 as many opportunities as Rutgers did, not did they have the same academic chops. The ACC needed football programs to quiet budding resentment from the southern schools plus BC is supposedly still angry with UConn. The lower academic quality of UC and UConn was also a factor for the ACC. No other P5 conference made any sense for UConn and the B12 was a reach for UC. Ultimately the B12 chose nobody.
RU, UC and UConn all made the same gamble of investing a lot into their revenue sports and schools in hopes of landing an invitation to a P5 conference. RU’s gamble paid off while the others didn’t, and RU will still be struggling with their finances for years. I think UC and UConn are digging holes so deep that they can’t easily get out. If they don’t land a P5 spot in the next decade (the next round of realignment is due in the mid-20s) they really need to consider downsizing to what the other AAC schools are spending.
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https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/10/draft-wide-receiver-wr-first-round-busts-kyle-lauletta-jimmy-garoppolo-chad-kanoff-princeton
The NFL doesn’t like how CFB prepares WRs for the NFL. Over the past 3 drafts, 13 first round draft picks have yielded one Pro Bowler and 9 players yet to catch 40 passes in a season.
Proehl is definitely buying into the theory that the wide receiver position is in a bit of a crisis at the college level. It’s hard to believe, just four years removed from the Sammy Watins/Mike Evans/Odell Beckham Jr./Brandin Cooks/Kelvin Benjamin class, we are entering a draft that may only contain one or two first-round picks at the position. Since 2014, only Amari Cooper has been picked in the first round and gone on to a Pro Bowl. Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Nelson Agholor, Phillip Dorsett, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross have all been slowed by injuries or slow to lift off.
The reasons are three-pronged, and could be why some of your favorite NFL teams are drafting receivers specifically out of the few pro-style offenses remaining in college, like Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Florida State (under Jimbo Fisher, who took the Texas A&M job last winter).
1. Collegiate offenses reduce wideouts to one side of the ball with limited responsibilities.
…
2. Coaches are starting to teach routes differently, and perhaps less effectively.
…
3. The use of the ‘fingertip method’
Three years and only 13 players seems like a really small sample size to draw meaningful conclusions from. Injuries happen. And some lower round players have outperformed these guys. Michael Thomas was a 2nd round pick and has 1 Pro Bowl and 196 catches in 2 seasons. I’m sure some other guys have succeeded too. Maybe the NFL is just bad at deciding who is worthy of a 1st round pick.
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An SNL Kagan report shows a significant drop in the average P12N subscriber fee over the past 5 years. See the article for a table of the prices for 25 sports networks. And remember that these are the average fee so they account for the different pricing in and outside of the footprint.
It comes in the form of a report by SNL Kagan, the highly-respected media research firm that has been tracking audience data for a half-century.
The report, obtained by the Hotline from a source (and published below), lists the average subscriber fee for dozens of national sports networks — from ESPN to the World Fishing Network, from the SEC Network to the Outdoor Channel.
…
Kagan’s research listed the average national subscriber fee in five-year increments:
* In 2012, the Big Ten commanded $0.37 per sub, while the Pac-12 National network received $0.30.
* By 2017, the Big Ten’s average sub fee had jumped to $0.48, an increase of 30 percent, while the Pac-12 fee had dropped to $0.11.
…
Of the 24 networks listed in the research report that existed in both 2012 and 2017, the Pac-12 Network was one of only four that experienced a drop in sub fees over the span. The others were the Olympic Channel, the Tennis Channel and beIN Sports.
The Pac-12’s fee decrease was, by far, the largest.
…
After obtaining the Kagan report, I asked the Pac-12 for an explanation. The response came in the form of a statement:
“We do not comment on the details of our distribution arrangements, but we can tell you that our contracted rates increase annually, as is common in the industry, and these reported estimates are not an accurate reflection of our economics.”
I then went back to Kagan, whose research is used throughout the media and entertainment industries, and asked for a response to the Pac-12’s response.
Not surprisingly, Kagan stood by its research.
After digging into the numbers and discussing the situation with numerous sources, I determined that both sides could very well be right.
…
In the fall of 2016, Dish Network expanded its agreement with the Pac-12 and moved the National network from a sports tier to a more accessible basic tier.
(The arrangement came soon after the Pac-12 struck a deal with Sling, which is owned by Dish.)
By moving to Dish’s basic tier, the Pac-12 Networks added 4.5 million out-of-market subscribers, according to Kagan.
Millions more out-of-market subs paying a much lower rate — estimated to be $0.05, which is standard — had the effect of lowering the average subscriber fee.
…
“They took lower revenue in order to reach more homes,” said Adam Gajo, a Kagan analyst who covers regional sports networks.
That piece, admittedly, is a tad fuzzy:
Did the conference drop its out-of-market rate (to $0.05 per sub) in exchange for moving to a more widely-accessible tier on Dish?
Did it drop the out-of-market rate in response to another development?
Did it drop the rate at all?
(Changing the rate for Dish would force the networks to change the rates for all distributors, according to the terms of its carriage agreements.)
Kagan believes the rate drop is exactly what happened:
…
But how wrong could the estimates be? Could the drop only be to $0.25 … or to $0.20?
Is it really all the way down to the $0.11 range.
“Kagan takes great pride in their accuracy,” an industry source told the Hotline. “I’m certain they would not have published a rate with such a dramatic swing if they weren’t comfortable with it.
“It’s not good for their business to miss that badly.”
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https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/sports-columns/ed-graney/dont-blame-mountain-west-for-trying-to-lure-gonzaga/
A columnist from Las Vegas speculates that Gonzaga might end up in the MWC in a few more years.
So while it wasn’t going to repeat the same mistake [making too many concessions to keep Boise State football] with Gonzaga, the idea it got played is silly.
What, the Mountain West, when hearing the Zags were shopping themselves, wasn’t supposed to inquire about perhaps landing one of the nation’s elite basketball programs? Even if this was all about Gonzaga simply wanting a better deal from the WCC, you have to engage in talks. You have to negotiate. You have to see if a fair deal for both sides can be made.
I’m not convinced it’s over, anyway.
Let’s see exactly who, in an age when NCAA berths are more and more going to Power 5 programs that have little incentive to play at Gonzaga, the Zags get for those two additional nonleague games. Let’s see how they react if it keeps taking 30 wins just to be a 4 seed. Let’s see where everyone sits when the Mountain West’s TV deal expires in 2020.
He’s correct that OOC scheduling is only getting harder for teams like Gonzaga. As P5 conferences move to 20 games, the last thing they want is another tough road game OOC. And there is no telling what the next TV deal for the MWC or WCC might look like with all the flux in the market.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23107028/prosecutors-add-more-criminal-counts-adidas-executive-fbi-college-basketball-probe
Federal prosecutors added more criminal counts to their hoops indictments. Former players at KU and NCSU have been brought into this with allegations that their families took bribes. The coaches and staff at KU are not implicated. However, a coach at NCSU is alleged to have been directly involved.
A federal indictment released on Tuesday alleges the payments were made to ensure the players signed with Kansas and then endorsement deals with Adidas once they turned pro. The indictment says the payments were concealed from the university and NCAA.
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Gatto and the unidentified Adidas consultant agreed to make a $40,000 payment to an unnamed NC State coach, who would then deliver it to the player’s parent, the indictment alleges. The payments were concealed from NC State officials and the NCAA, according to prosecutors.
The indictment says the player enrolled at NC State for the 2016-17 season and entered the NBA draft in June 2017.
NC State also released a statement on Tuesday, addressing that one of the latest indictments included the school and that the school had previously contacted former coaches in September 2017 about issues. Mark Gottfried was the coach at NC State during the time of Tuesday’s allegations. He was fired last season and has since been named coach at Cal State Northridge.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2018/04/11/georgia-techs-paul-johnson-proposed-transfer-changes-think-its-nuts/508223002/
Paul Johnson has concerns about some of the proposed transfer reforms out there.
“If a kid comes in and wants to transfer, I don’t think you should restrict them wherever they want to go,” Johnson said.
But where the discussions will get contentious revolves around the Committee on Academics’ proposal to allow athletes to transfer once in their career without sitting out a year if they meet a specific academic benchmark.
This idea was put into the discussion last week with a formal recommendation that a GPA between 3.0 and 3.3 should qualify an athlete for immediate eligibility if they transfer based on the rationale that “GPAs below 3.0 are most at risk for taking longer to graduate — or not graduating at all.”
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“(If they adopt this proposal), is it in your best interests to make sure all your guys are under 3.3?” said Johnson, who is only verbalizing what every college football coach is thinking. “If you’re allowing a one-time transfer rule and tying it to a high enough GPA or whatever, what are you telling the schools who don’t want to lose their guys? What are they going to do, keep them from being a 3.3? You know how people are going to do it. They’re going to do what’s in their best interests.”
Considering how busy players are and the amount of tutoring they can get as well as the mandatory study hours, it wouldn’t be hard for a school to cut back on academic support to keep more players eligible but below a 3.3 GPA. Some of the better students will be above that, but probably not a huge number at most schools.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/23104808/university-washington-10-year-agreement-wear-adidas-apparel-starting-summer-2019
UW just signed a deal to switch from Nike to Adidas for a big bump in money.
Jon Wilner looked at the deals for all the P12 schools in his newsletter and found some interesting things.
Average annual payments:
UCLA: $18.6 million (Under Armour)
Washington: $12 million (Adidas)
Cal: $8.3 (Under Armour)
Oregon: $8 million (Nike)
Utah: $6.5 million (Under Armour)
Arizona State: $4.2 million (Adidas)
Oregon State: $3.3 million (Nike)
Arizona: $3.1 million (Nike)
Colorado: $3 million (Nike)
Washington State: $2.3 million (Nike)
Reaction to the numbers:
*** The top-three deals, and five of the top six, are not with Nike. All in all, the Swoosh represents just seven of the 12 schools.
*** The disparity between UCLA and WSU ($16.3 million) would itself be the fourth-largest apparel deal in the country, behind only UCLA, Ohio State and Texas.
*** Oregon obviously has received immense sums from Nike outside the parameters of its apparel contracts, but it’s nonetheless odd to see the Ducks with a lower annual haul than Cal.
*** We don’t know the value of the Stanford and USC deals with Nike — as private schools, they aren’t required to disclose the terms.
However, multiple sources have told the Hotline that USC’s deal (believed to be in the $5 million annual range) is a fraction of its potential. The Trojans should be on the same level as Ohio State, Texas and UCLA given their location and the strength of the football brand; yet they’re nowhere close.
Obviously timing is big as these deals tend to be 10+ years long, but those disparities are huge. It’s hard not to think that UA overpaid for UCLA. I know they’re in LA, but they are far from a dominant brand in the city. Paying significantly more for UCLA than OSU or UT make seems like a questionable financial decision.
This is an area where many of the P12 schools need to step up their game to help close the financial gap to other schools.
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“It’s hard not to think that UA overpaid for UCLA. I know they’re in LA, but they are far from a dominant brand in the city.”
These are international brands. UCLA is easily the most recognized collegiate brand throughout all of Asia. How they rate vs others in USA is of some importance, but not overriding. I’m not sure there wasn’t more value
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I get that, except the merchandise sales numbers don’t support it. Including international sales, UCLA isn’t a top 25 school for sales. Asian sales are a sizable chunk of UCLA’s sales, but a big piece of a small pie still has limited value. And many of those sales are items UA doesn’t produce (jeans, dress clothes, dress shoes, etc). I can see taking a gamble to get into a new market, but I don’t think the numbers make sense here.
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Basketball is more important than football for shoe sales and its not close
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http://dailybruin.com/2011/06/06/ucla_merchandise_gains_popularity_in_overseas_markets_brings_home_big_profits/
That’s great, but not particularly relevant here. The top UCLA sales in Asia are casual and dress clothes/shoes, not athletic apparel. Many people treat it like Tommy Hilfiger and other clothing brands. It’s not apparel sales like we think of in the US.
https://qz.com/1206001/under-armours-ua-international-business-grew-in-2017-especially-in-china/
UA is focusing on international growth while their sales in the US are shrinking. I’m not sure that’s the wisest approach, but that’s their choice. I don’t think the UCLA deal will do as much for them as you think it will since the NBA is a much bigger brand in China and UA already uses that to sell stuff.
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Jon Wilner has P12N analyst Nigel Burton on his podcast to discuss what the P12 should do to improve the product before the TV deals come up for renewal in a few years.
Wilner has proposed a competition committee dedicated solely to football. Burton suggests the P12 go beyond being just a conference and invest in player and coach development. He also suggests NFL-like TV blackouts in home markets and other things.
The podcast is 30 minutes.
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The end may be sooner than you think-for the conference network model.
Comcast XFinity has decided unilaterally to drop BTN in many markets. All of their competitors still carry BTN everywhere. We at BTN share your disappointment. Let Comcast know how you feel.
Will the Big 10 regret Rutgers and Maryland if the model falls apart quickly?
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Comcast is the worst company ever. In all ways. Their customer service, their pricing, their product – it’s all terrible. The world would be a better place if Comcast and their executives ceased to exist.
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bullet,
“The end may be sooner than you think-for the conference network model.”
I’ll believe that when the SECN suffers or the ACCN or P12N goes away.
“Will the Big 10 regret Rutgers and Maryland if the model falls apart quickly?”
Probably not. The broadcast deal is still helped greatly by them. Also, NJ and MD still provide a wealth of future B10 students which was a big part of the expansion decision.
This article includes a map of where Xfinity is nationally:
https://www.hammerandrails.com/2018/4/12/17230896/comcast-to-drop-big-ten-network-in-may
It’s not clear yet how many subscribers BTN is losing over this, and at least some of them will switch or add providers to continue to get BTN. Since OOF subscribers pay a lot less, the financial hit may not be huge.
I’m not sure why they’d drop the BTN from the sports tier, though. Is it to make room for the ACCN all along the east coast or even nationally? It just isn’t that expensive.
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Jon Wilner is worried what this bodes for the P12N. From his newsletter (he’ll probably post it as an article soon):
Now, the Big Ten has a mammoth footprint, thanks in part to expansion. The vast majority of network viewers are in-market subscribers: Households within the conference borders that pay the highest subscription fees.
Comcast viewers outside the footprint have been paying an estimated $0.05 or $0.10 per month to get the Big Ten Network on a sports tier.
“It’s not going to impact (the Big Ten) much,” an industry source said. “I don’t get worked up over outer-market because people who wanted BTN enough to buy the tier from Comcast will certainly buy it from either DirecTV or one of the DMVPDs.”
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Just a few years ago, distributors like Comcast were willing to place college sports networks on cable systems across the country, even if viewership was sparse and subscriber fee were dirt cheap in the hinterlands.
But linear cable — especially out-of-market linear cable — is no longer must-have content for distributors for reasons that include cord cutting, rising expenses and less-than-premium events.
“It doesn’t make sense anymore,’’ another industry source said.
…
But as we cast an eye to the next round of major media rights negotiations, it’s worth wondering what price the Pac-12 linear content will command outside the footprint.
In fact, it’s worth wondering what price Pac-12 linear content will command anywhere.
If Big Ten content is losing value, wouldn’t the same hold for other conferences? It’s difficult to envision valuations not moving in lockstep, to one degree or another.
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Link to Wilner’s article about it.
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Beyond just BTN I would assume Rutgers and Maryland help the league with Tier 1 negotiations. Many of the OTT providers include BTN and other sports entities. I would envision that will be the future and bundling will still be a component when it comes to access sports and news. The key will be whether or not the cost of internet will come down with the advent of 5g and possible alternative internet sources to the current cable monopolies.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/23154441/victim-larry-nassar-accuses-michigan-state-interim-president-john-engler-offering-payoff
John Engler is already having to apologize for how he’s dealing with MSU’s scandal. This is what you get for naming a former governor to run a major university. Perhaps try hiring a middle-aged woman rather than an old man if you want to tackle sexual assault issues.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23156570/ncaa-playing-rules-oversight-panel-approves-several-new-rules-which-implemented-2018-season
The new kickoff fair catch rule was approved along with several other rule tweaks for 2018.
Teams that signal for a fair catch inside their own 25-yard line on kickoffs will now be awarded a touchback, according to rule changes announced Friday by the NCAA.
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Following his six-month sabbatical, as expected, Maryland and athletic director Kevin Anderson parted ways. Damon Evans will remain interim AD, but probably won’t be named the permanent replacement.
https://www.testudotimes.com/2018/4/13/16581948/maryland-terps-athletic-director-kevin-anderson-fired-damon-evans-search
Someone in the thread above suggested that Diane Dietz, a former Michigan basketball star and current B1G deputy commissioner, might make a good candidate. Don’t know much about her, but after the reign of Debbie Yow as Maryland AD, many Terp fans would be averse to hiring a woman to the post, no matter how qualified.
And as I’ve mentioned before, Iowa State’s Jamie Pollard, a former assistant AD in College Park, would be a home-run hire, though he apparently has deep midwestern roots and would be tough to steal from Ames. I think Maryland can lure someone with AD experience in a P5 conference.
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https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/wvu/q-a-with-bob-bowlsby-big-commissioner-reviews-year-looks/article_c44d0e45-de32-50a0-9465-188cd9e83b04.html
An interview with Bob Bowlsby.
G-M: What was your take on the Big 12’s first football championship? Oklahoma made the College Football Playoff, but TCU was shut out of a lucrative New Year’s Six bowl. Was the setup worth it in Year One?
BOWLSBY: Yes, it was an unqualified success. [Senior associated commissioner] Ed Stewart on our staff did a great job with it. The showing at AT&T [Stadium in Arlington, Texas] was tremendous. We had a great crowd for it. It was a competitive game [won by Oklahoma 41-17]. We had a chance to have TCU and others considered for New Year’s Six games but it didn’t work out. Our Board of Directors, though, went through an extensive process to consider the re-implementation of the game. We took that step and it was huge success.
G-M: Do you see the league revisiting expansion any time soon?
BOWLSBY: We have to be constantly vigilant of the landscape, but I wouldn’t call consideration of expansion a priority at this point.
G-M: Can you could pinpoint one reason why the league didn’t expand? Was there pressure from your network partners not to do so?
BOWLSBY: There’s not a short answer to that. We went through a long process of analyzing a lot of data. Essentially, when it came down to it, there wasn’t an institution or group of institutions that had the requisite votes to be elected to membership. It requires a super majority of eight out of 10. Although there weren’t any votes taken, it was apparent there wasn’t an institution that had the requisite votes. For each of our 10 members it was an individual decision. They probably came to those in different ways.
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https://www.comcastspotlight.com/offerings/overview/big-ten
From the advertising page on Comcast’s website, some info about the demographics of BTN’s viewership.
Age:
55+: 49%
35-54: 33%
18-34: 18%
Income:
$75,000+: 51%
$50k-75k: 15%
$30k-$50k: 20%
Other:
71% male
29% graduated college
82% own their home
29% have at least 1 child in the household
Comparisons:
ESPN
55+: 40%
33% college grads
70% own their home
So a little younger, a little more educated and a little less rich.
FS1
55+: 43%
27% college grads
70% own their home
So a little younger, a little less educated and a little less rich.
P12N – no info
SECN – not an option
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http://www.al.com/alabamafootball/index.ssf/2018/04/what_really_happened_between_h.html
This is a good news/bad news story to me. The good news is that SEC commissioner Greg Sankey basically prevented any SEC schools from hiring Hugh Freeze in the off-season. The bad news is that at least 5 SEC schools had interest in hiring him despite his NCAA violations at Ole Miss (I don’t care about his personal issues).
Alabama was one of at least five SEC schools that had contact with Freeze about on-field jobs this offseason. Saban wanted to hire Freeze as a co-offensive coordinator and position coach, sources told AL.com.
However, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey encouraged Alabama not to hire a man as well known for the personal shortcomings that led to his Ole Miss resignation as he is for his success as a coach.
…
It was only a few days after Saban’s mid-January meeting with Freeze that he learned he couldn’t make the hire. Sankey informed both Freeze and Alabama that it would look bad for the SEC for Freeze to be back coaching in the league while Ole Miss suffered from NCAA penalties incurred under his watch. The SEC preferred that Freeze, who resigned in July following a “pattern of personal misconduct,” go off the radar for at least a little while before trying to return to work at one of its schools.
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While it seems implausible a coach as influential and successful as Saban couldn’t get what he wanted, a nearly year-old SEC bylaw gives the league’s commissioner additional oversight into schools’ hiring practices. According to bylaw 19.8.1.2, a school must consult directly with Sankey before offering a job to a coach “who has engaged in unethical conduct as defined under NCAA Bylaws or who has participated in activity that resulted, or may result, in a Level I, Level II or major infraction.”
I wish it was a principled stance from the SEC rather than a PR consideration. It’s also sad that so many schools would actively seek to add a dirty coach, but not unexpected from the SEC.
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http://highschoolsports.al.com/news/article/8912529805191908614/ahsaa-approves-instant-replay-for-football-starting-this-fall/
Just what we all needed. The state of Alabama is implementing instant replay for all high school football games starting this fall.
Several states, including New Jersey and Minnesota, have used or plan to use replay in championship games, but Alabama is believed to the first state to have instant replay available at all high school games.
National Federation rules do not allow instant replay for football, and the AHSAA has been granted a waiver to implement instant replay as an experiment for up to three years.
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The AHSAA will partner with DVsport, a company that specializes in instant replay and will provide equipment to schools to facilitate in-game instant replay. Savarese said DVsport coordinates instant replay for many major sports organizations, including the SEC.
Savarese declined to say how much the system will cost individual schools, but indicated it will be minimal.
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Jones said the state’s football officials want instant replay, knowing coaches have been able to immediately review game footage for several years.
“The NFHS permits state associations to experiment in certain situations to determine the future viability of rules changes,” NFHS Executive Director Bob Gardner said in a prepared statement released by the AHSAA. “As technology improvements evolve, the use of instant replay is an area of interest for the NFHS Football Rules Committee. We welcome the Alabama High School Athletic Association’s experiment in use of replay in the 2018 season. We hope to learn the advantages as well as any problems associated with replay from the use in Alabama.”
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Some new info from Stanford about what causes concussions.
In a study published in Physical Review Letters the bioengineers found concussions and other mild head injuries seem to occur when an area deep in the brain shakes more rapidly and intensely than surrounding parts of the organ.
“We are pinpointing the weak point in the brain during impact with the biomechanical and physical understanding,” said Mehmet Kurt, assistant professor of mechanical engineering at the Stevens Institute of Technology in New Jersey.
Determining what movement causes the most damage during a hit could change the way manufacturers design protective headgear for football and other sports as well as assisting physicians and trainers in making better sideline decisions whether to let an athlete return to a game after getting hit in the head.
“Linking the type blow that you get and the type of injury or no injury you get is the next thing to look at,” Kurt said Tuesday. “That is where real-time diagnostics would be possible.”
Fellow researcher Kaveh Laksari, a biomedical engineering professor at the University of Arizona, said early diagnosis also could help with treatment and recovery.
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Those cameras you don’t like at high schools could help with that.
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Not really.
1. In an era of underfunded schools, I don’t like high schools wasting money to buy/rent video equipment for football games. There are much better uses for that money.
2. It’s just HS sports. It really doesn’t matter if a bad call decides the outcome. It’s just a game and the kids need to learn that.
3. Think how bad HS refs often are. Who wants to sit around waiting for replays of every call they mess up?
4. As it applies to the concussion study, you need helmet sensors more than cameras. They need to know head acceleration rates and vectors, rotation, etc. The cameras HS’s will have wouldn’t give enough detail to tell them much. Video provide context more than scientific evidence.
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https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/average-ad-compensation-by-conference/
A detailed analysis of AD pay at P5 schools.
5 big things:
1. AD pay varies by conference
ACC – $1.14M average
B12 – $956k average
B10 – $912k average
SEC – $881k average
P12 – $755k average
The P12 needs to step it up. They have large programs and are often in expensive locations.
2. A big range of ratios of AD pay to AD revenue
High = 1.75% (TT)
Median = 0.76% (UF)
Low = 0.43% (TN)
3. AD pay has grown quickly over the past 5 years
Average growth = $46,500 (8.95%)
Top growth = $1.87M (157%) – ND
4. Bonuses are large
Average bonus = $200k (24.0%)
5. The ratio of AD pay to FB+MBB HC pay varies, too
High = 22.5%
Median = 13.1%
Low = 5.39%
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/university-of-tennessee/football/2018/04/16/sec-commissioner-greg-sankey-stadium-alcohol-sales-ongoing-debate/520094002/
The SEC may soon end their conference-wide ban on selling alcohol in general seating areas. Blue laws lasted longer in the south (GA made Sunday alcohol sales – after 12:30pm – permissible based on county votes in 2011 and only 2/3 of counties approved it), so I guess it’s not a surprise they might have this rule. Still, you’d think the schools should have the freedom to make their own decisions about this.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/23232105/ohio-state-buckeyes-wrestler-kyle-snyder-wins-sullivan-award-top-amateur-athlete
OSU’s Kyle Snyder won the AAU’s Sullivan award as the top amateur athlete in the nation for 2017.
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https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/division-i-council-adopts-recruiting-legislation
The NCAA closed a loophole in CFB rules. No longer are former players allowed to participate in practices (like AL bringing in Trent Richardson to play RB in bowl prep one year).
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Rob Mullens, AD at Oregon and CFP committee chair, talking about scheduling (esp. in regards to the P12).
Now, no less an authority than Rob Mullens, Oregon’s athletic director and chairman of the playoff selection committee, has come out in favor of maintaining the nine-game conference lineup.
“Strength-of-schedule matters,’’ Mullens told the Hotline recently, during a conversation about the nature of, and difficulties involved in, football scheduling.
Strength-of-schedule matters to the selection committee, to the fans and to the budgets.
Eliminating the ninth conference date and replacing it with a lower-tier FBS opponent or an FBS team (i.e., the SEC model) would pose a variety of problems for the Pac-12:
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* Not to be overlooked: Eliminating a conference game would result in the Northwest schools making fewer appearances in the fertile Southern California recruiting ground.
It would also reduce the number of USC appearances (i.e., potential sellouts) in stadiums across Washington and Oregon.
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I posed the question to directly Mullens, who has served two years on the committee and will be chairman for the 2018 season:
Are you in favor of maintaining the current structure of nine conference games?
“I am now,’’ he said. “It’s something, as we learn more, that we’ll have to continue to monitor. It will always be under discussion. But my current lean is for nine games.”
How teams handle the other three is, of course, vital to the playoff selection process.
Oregon aims for the A-B-C model, with one game against a Power Five opponent, one against a Group of Five opponent (preferably from the western region) and one against an FCS opponent.
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“The list can get pretty small pretty quick,’’ Mullens said. “We want somebody (from the Power Five) who’s looking for a road game in a year we want a home game.
“The bottom line is that you have to do what fits, what your fans care about, and what helps you recruit.”
Mullens noted that the combination of an A-level game, nine conference dates and the Pac-12 championship, would give the conference winner 11 games against Power Five opponents.
“That last one would be a strong strength-of-schedule game,’’ he said, echoing the committee’s preference for the extra data point in its evaluation process. “But we’re always assessing.”
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/notre-dame-and-alabama-schedule-home-and-home-college-football-series-in-2028-and-2029/
It’s official. ND vs AL to open the seasons in 2028 and 2029, both games on campus.
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Lance Armstong settled his case with the USPS by paying $5m.
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I never really understood why the USPS sued. He brought them a ton of publicity by winning 7 straight Tours de France, much more than what they were paying for. I don’t know anybody that ever held his doing against the USPS in any way, so I don’t see how they suffered any damages at all.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23247542/colorado-st-gets-377-million-naming-rights-football-stadium
CSU got over $2.5M per year for 15 years ($37.7M total) for naming right to their stadium. In 2016 they got $20M to name the playing field for Sonny Lubick.
If that sort of money is out there, how many G5 schools can afford not to sell naming rights anymore?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23257571/former-ohio-state-buckeyes-coach-earle-bruce-dies-age-87
Earle Bruce passed away.
He may be the greatest example of how tough it is to coach OSU, where a permanent head coach hasn’t survived to retire of his own accord since WWII including 5 Hall of Fame coaches in a row that were fired. Bruce went 9-3 in 6 straight years after going 11-1 in his first year, then went 10-3 in his next season. His last team went just 6-4-1 after star WR Cris Carter was declared ineligible and the team fell apart. He was fired before the MI game, then won that game in Ann Arbor.
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/041918aae.html
The B10 has released the conference opponent pairings for the 2018-19 MBB schedule. This will be the first year with a 20 game schedule, so everyone plays 7 teams twice and the other 6 once.
There’s also a Q&A with B10 assistant commissioner Kerry Kenny. The key answer:
Q: How will this change impact the rotation of single-play and double-play opponents next season?
A: The new schedules ensure that all three of the Big Ten’s in-state rivals – Illinois/Northwestern, Indiana/Purdue, and Michigan/Michigan State-will play twice on an annual basis. Additionally, there will be regional rotations in both the east and in the west. Rather than protecting a single opponent on a yearly basis for the remaining eight teams, annual rotations involving the four eastern teams (Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State and Rutgers) and the four western teams (Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Wisconsin) have been strategically developed to optimize travel, academic and recovery impacts while encouraging increased competition among institutions that are near each other geographically. Increasing the frequency of conference competition allows the Big Ten to compete across a larger footprint, while respecting history and balancing the needs of our students, coaches and fans.
It’s great that they are finally locking some rivalries, but their regional scheduling really screws OSU. The western four schools have many intertwined rivalries even if they are mostly built on football. But OSU has many closer schools than the eastern ones.
Closest schools to NE: 1. IA, 2. MN, 3. WI
Closest schools to MN: 1. WI, 2. IA, 4. NE
Closest schools to IA: 1. WI, 4. NE, 5. MN
Closest schools to WI: 2. IA, 5. MN, 9. NE
Closest schools to RU: 1. UMD, 2. PSU, 3. OSU
Closest schools to UMD: 1. PSU, 2. RU, 3. OSU
Closest schools to PSU: 1. UMD, 2. RU, 3. OSU
Closest schools to OSU: 6. PSU, 8. UMD, 10. RU
I’m sure WI isn’t thrilled with this either, but OSU gets by far the shortest straw. Both newbies, which are farther away than most of the rest of the B10, plus a terrible MBB program in PSU. I’m sure seeing those teams more often will do wonders for attendance. Don’t get me wrong, I realize it’s not a huge issue. It’s just that those are 3 of the worst choices for OSU to play more often.
So how does this play out in actuality? The regional teams play 2 of the other 3 twice each season and they’re are grouped in pairs.
IOWA
Away: Minnesota
Home/Away: Nebraska, Wisconsin
MINNESOTA
Home: Iowa
Home/Away: Nebraska, Wisconsin
NEBRASKA
Home: Wisconsin
Home/Away: Iowa, Minnesota
WISCONSIN
Away: Nebraska
Home/Away: Iowa, Minnesota
OHIO STATE
Home: Penn State
Home/Away: Maryland, Rutgers
PENN STATE
Away: Ohio State
Home/Away: Maryland, Rutgers
MARYLAND
Away: Rutgers
Home/Away: Ohio State, Penn State
RUTGERS
Home: Maryland
Home/Away: Ohio State, Penn State
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The current plan:
a. 8 teams in the West or East regions
20 games = 13 (100%) + 2 in region (67% dual-play) + 5 against the other 10 (50% dual-play)
b. 6 teams with in-state rivals
20 games = 13 (100%) + 1 in-state (100% dual-play) + 6 against the other 12 (50% dual-play)
The obvious question is if there’s a better plan. I think there is.
Let’s start with keeping the basic plan the B10 adopted:
20 games = 13 (1 against everyone) + 1 locked/regional + 6 more
That maintains the locked in-state rivalries which I think is a great addition. This accounts for 14 games for everyone, leaving 6 unallocated so far. My change would be to use parity-based scheduling for 3 of those games. That would help maintain some rivalries and make more good TV games. If it’s good for football, then it should definitely be good for hoops which struggles for regular season viewers.
For the 8 outer teams, there are 10 teams outside of their region.
a. 8 teams in the West or East regions
20 games = 13 (100%) + 1 rotating in region + 1 by parity in region (~67%) + 1 rotating against the far region + 1 by parity against the far region (~50%) + 2 rotating against the other 6 + 1 by parity against the other 6 (~50%)
b. 6 teams with in-state rivals
20 games = 13 (100%) + 1 in-state + 1 rotating in region + 1 by parity in region (~50%) + 2 rotating against the edge regions (1 each) + 2 by parity against the edge regions (1 each so ~50%)
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https://www.thelantern.com/2018/04/where-buckeyes-come-from-ohio-residents-account-for-smaller-portion-of-freshman-enrollment/
The article is about OSU, but it reflects a growing trend in higher education. It talks about how schools are turning to international and out-of-state students to fill a greater percentage of the student body and the impacts that has on in-state students. In the past 10 years, OSU has dropped from 81.7% to 70.1% students from Ohio. The stated goal is 35% non-residents by 2020.
So far OSU has done this by maintaining a constant number of Ohio residents and adding non-residents, but the distribution within the state has changed. The 10 most populous counties as well as the 32 Appalachian counties are losing representation. For all of OSU’s talk about diversity and helping those in need, it seems strange that they aren’t doing more to help the urban and Appalachian counties by the simple act of admitting qualified students.
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Wisconsin has recently done something similar. They previously had an out-of-state cap at 27.5% and increased that to I believe 32% but in the process also required that the amount of accepted in-state applicants had to increase.
At some you wonder if these flagship schools need to consider increasing their overall enrollments. For the most part Wisconsin’s has been pretty stagnant for the past few decades.
Current enrollment is around 43k. 30k are undergrads. Seems they could beef up their undergrad enrollment since grad students tend not to consume much of the student housing. Demand is certainly there.
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Kevin,
The main campus is right around 60,000 total students (46,000 undergrads) so I’m not sure it’s feasible to grow too much more in Columbus, although that has gone up about 3000 students since 2011.
One thing OSU has done is build up the quality of its regional campuses. I think that’s where a lot of the future growth can and should be. All the credits transfer and you don’t need to spend 4 years in Columbus to get a good degree. Currently about 13% of all undergrads (~6600) are on the 5 regional campuses. I know they are intentionally kept smaller to be more friendly to people wanting a more personal experience, but growing them to 10,000 students would help a lot.
Likewise, Ohio is blessed with a plethora of large state schools besides OSU that offer quality educations. All those MAC schools (Akron, BGSU, Kent State, Toledo, Ohio, Miami) plus UCincinnati is a good start. And many of them also have regional campuses. There are also the smaller schools like Cleveland State, Wright State and Youngstown State. OSU doesn’t have to educate everyone.
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https://www.recode.net/2018/4/18/17253300/fubotv-funding-amc-fox-discovery-streaming-tv
A table that tells you what package you need and how much you have to pay various streaming services to get your network of choice.
BTN:
DirecTV Now – Premium $50-$96
FuboTV – Base $45
Hulu with Live TV – Base $40
PlayStation Vue – Premium $45-$85
YouTube TV – Base $35
Philo – not available
Sling TV – not available
P12N:
FuboTV – Base $45
Sling TV – Premium $25-$124
Other 5 – not available
SECN:
DirecTV Now – Premium $50-$96
Hulu with Live TV – Base $40
PlayStation Vue – Premium $45-$85
YouTube TV – Base $35
FuboTV – not available
Philo – not available
Sling TV – not available
ACCN:
Sling TV – Base $20
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Jon Wilner looked at the next 5 years of OOC games for the P12 (they are all listed in the article) with commentary and a grade for each school.
There are some nice intersectional games (OSU, MI, TAMU, LSU, OU, etc) as well as the expected regional games (CSU, Boise, Fresno, etc). It’s not surprising that BYU shows up a lot, but their 18 games means BYU could have a significant impact on the P12’s chances at a CFP berth. If BYU stays down like they were last year, all those games could hurt the SOS for the P12. If BYU returns to their historical norm, those games could really help the SOS.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-way-everybody-measures-nfl-schedule-strength-its-wrong/
The standard approach to preseason SOS calculations in the NFL (and probably elsewhere) is worthless. The previous year’s records are a poor predictor of this year’s results.
But there is a stat that does correlate with upcoming-season wins: Pythagorean wins, based on points scored and points allowed rather than win-loss record. Developed for baseball by Bill James and modified for other sports by current Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey, this equation is where Pro-Football-Reference.com’s “expected wins” number comes from. In a 2007 blog post, Drinen found that this stat significantly correlates with next-season wins.
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There’s no model that can account for player age, coaching changes, free agency, the draft or player injuries before they happen. Many teams will defy what 2017’s expected-win value suggests about their 2018 outlook. But history tells us that expected-win values do correlate with what’s going to happen this autumn — and raw win-loss numbers don’t.
I’m guessing the same is true for CFB, but with more noise due to roster changes.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2018/04/20/fox-lobbied-nfl-move-marquee-sunday-games-thursday-tv/535210002/
Fox is looking to improve on the quality of Thursday night games now that they own that TV package. They encouraged the NFL to move some of their good Sunday doubleheader games to Thursday nights instead.
NFL executives told USA TODAY Sports that Fox was willing to offer some of its better matchups from Sunday afternoon to bolster Thursdays.
“They encouraged us to look at a number of Sunday afternoon Fox doubleheader games and to take a handful of games … where we could build the importance of Thursday night for them,” said Blake Jones, director of NFL football operations. “There were games in the mix that weren’t really in the mix in previous years that we were able to work with this year.”
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“We’re so invested for the next five years in Thursday night, there is no game, at least in our package, that is too good to be on Thursday,” Fox Sports president Eric Shanks said earlier this week at the World Congress, a sports business summit in Los Angeles. “We’re just as invested in Thursday as we are in Sunday. It’s just as important to us.”
It’s an interesting approach to risk Sunday ratings. Nothing will change the players not being physically ready to play on such short rest, though.
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Other than weeks with no byes, why can’t the rest of the time Thursday games always follow a bye? Three games in four weekends with the second pretty much centered between the others.
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That’s always been my thought too. I assume it’s the difficulty of actually scheduling and getting things to work out that way. It may have to do with which games they prefer to have on Thursday versus how they prefer to distribute bye weeks.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/orig/four-reasons-why-athletic-insane-trajectory-will-only-continue.html
An in-depth article about how “The Athletic” has been and will continue to be successful.
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http://thecomeback.com/ncaa/arkansas-scheduled-six-tennis-matches-against-tennessee-state-one-day-ncaa-tournament-eligible.html
For those who wonder why the NCAA rulebooks always are so thick, read this. To qualify for the NCAA women’s tennis championship tournament, a team must be at least 0.500. Arkansas finished the regular season 7-15, then went 3-1 in the SEC tournament with a high SOS and playing well late in the season. They felt they had a shot at an at-large bid if they were eligible.
So AR paid TN State to play 6 consecutive tennis meets on Saturday to improve their record to 16-16. Apparently the NCAA doesn’t have a limitation on the total number of tennis meets unlike their season limitations in football, basketball and some other sports. Shouldn’t someone be concerned about the players facing 6 meets in one day?
A standard meet for a woman player is a best of 3 sets singles match plus a 1 set doubles match. The team needs 4 points to win (1 point for each singles match, 1 point for winning 2 of 3 doubles matches). AR won the first 5 meets 4-0, meaning they didn’t bother to play doubles. But generally you play all 6 singles matches at once. Since AR didn’t forfeit any points, that means each player played at least 12 sets of singles that day. The meets were spread over the entire day (8am, 10am, 12:30, 2:30, 5, 7), but that’s still a lot of wear and tear on a body. Should any college athlete be asked to compete over 12 hours of one day?
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Karma decided that Arkansas shuoldn’t make the NCAA tournament. I’m glad such a blatant ploy to game the system wasn’t rewarded.
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https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/04/2018-nfl-draft-order-team-needs-picks-guide-primer-position-rankings-schedule-date-tv-channel-start-time-networks
Everything you need to know about the NFL Draft in one infographic.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/nancy-armour/2018/04/24/michigan-state-cesspool-who-going-fix/547344002/
The problems at MSU just keep getting worse. A famous volleyball coach has been banned by USA Volleyball since 1995 over allegations that he raped 6 girls in the 1980s, but MSU continued to work with him for at least 20 more years.
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Something new (new to me, at least) from the Dude of WV on twitter:
UCF/USF was recommended to the Big 12 as the best value for expansion the last time by the firm the hired to appraise programs. However, the Big 12 and the SEC (as well as ESPN) have a deal in place for the Big 12 not to expand into Florida.
Also more of the usual:
There is 0.0% the Big 12 expands with G5 schools. ESPN & Fox have warned the conf that doing so would harm TV negotiations. ESPN has paid the B12 not to expand with G5 schools.
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I’m 100% confident that we will know the future of the Big 12 by 2021.
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Look closer… Several P12 schools have the financial woes that usually motivate a move (or consideration or a move). Arizona and Arizona State do not but they have other issues. ESPN & Fox will not allow the Big 12 to expand using G5 schools.
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Who said it was? The Big 12 exists only as long as Texas wants it to exist and that is at least to 2035.
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Because losing TV rights is more affordable in the last two years of the deal. My bet is that two from the Pac 12 move over.
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Was there any comment about Colorado and Utah? Or, for than matter, New Mexico and New Mexico State?
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Colorado yes, the others no.
New OU prez is pro Big 12, bullish on expansion and close ties to Colorado. Big 12 set to put the full press on easterly Pac 12 schools for Membership. Colorado, Arz., Arz State & a surprise BYU.
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James L. Gallogly is a war time president. As in the Big 12 is going to war against the Pac 12. If the Big 12 can pry Colorado free from the Pac 12 they feel they can add the Arizona schools.
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It Gallogly can help the Big 12 land Colorado then he doesnt share the academic concerns that kept OU out if the SEC.
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The next 3 years will determine if the Big 12 folds or persists. They have to have viable (and valuable options) lined up for expansion before sitting down at the table with ESPN/Fox.
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In regards to B12 expansion we all need to think like TV execs & accountants & not fans. The Big 12 would welcome Colorado back in a NY minute because it means survival.
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As for Colorado the financial need is there to look at a move. It depends on what the Big 12 can get from ESPN/Fox with additions from the P12. As always the key is profit differential. How much of an increase in revenues justifies the pain of the move? Thats TDB.
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All I’m saying is the Big 12 plans to target P12 schools prior to the exclusive window with ESPN/Fox closing on the current TV deal. They need 2-4 more schools for the next TV contract.
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“It Gallogly can help the Big 12 land Colorado then he doesnt share the academic concerns that kept OU out if the SEC.”
How would trying to get an AAU school indicate a lack of academic concern?
Is this anything more than the usual dude hallucinations ?
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Combined with the tweet above it, I think he’s saying this:
If the B12 can get Colorado, then academic standards wouldn’t keep them from adding UA and ASU (and someone else – maybe Utah) unlike the SEC who expressed qualms about taking lesser academic schools last time around (TAMU and MO are both AAU).
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Colorado alumni — many of whom are on the West Coast — had a lot to do with the university’s move to the Pac. Saying goodbye to Los Angeles and hello again to Stillwater and Ames (not to mention new trips to Morgantown) might not be that well received. (How many CU alums are in the Metroplex? If there are a lot, road trips to Texas Christian could be seen as a benefit of jumping back.)
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23311712/commission-college-basketball-shares-recommendations-ncaa
The NCAA’s Commission on College Basketball announced their recommendations.
The Commission on College Basketball recommended an end to the one-and-done rule, potential lifetime bans for rule-breakers and changes to the relationship between the NCAA and apparel companies.
“We need to put the college back in college basketball,” commission chairman and former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Wednesday at a news conference in Indianapolis after the independent panel released a detailed 60-page report.
“Our focus has been to strengthen the collegiate model — not to move toward one that brings aspects of professionalism into the game,” Rice added.
NCAA president Mark Emmert has said he wants reforms in place by August.
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Ending one-and-done is the biggest change suggested by the commission, even though it’s an NBA rule — which Rice pointed out. The commission wants 18-year-olds to again be eligible for the NBA draft, allowing a path to the pros directly out of high school.
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If a change is not made to one-and-done, Rice said the commission will look into options, such as making freshmen ineligible or locking a scholarship for three or four years if the recipient leaves a program after one year.
“One-and-done has to go one way or another,” Rice told The Associated Press.
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The commission also recommends college players should be able to return to school if they go undrafted, as long as they don’t sign a professional contract. As it stands, players can test NBA draft waters without an agent, but must withdraw their name weeks before the draft should they decide to return to school.
“Erroneously entering the NBA draft is not the kind of misjudgment that should deprive student-athletes of the valuable opportunity to enter college or to continue in college while playing basketball,” said Rice, who added that the commission considered, but did not recommend, the “baseball rule” that requires two or three years of college if prospects don’t go straight to the draft out of high school.
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Another change to the current process suggested by the commission would be enabling high school and college players to sign with certified agents before deciding on whether to enter the NBA draft.
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Rice also called for an overhaul to the investigative and enforcement arms of the NCAA. In addition to using independent and neutral investigators, the commission recommends much harsher NCAA penalties for cheaters and rule-breakers. For Level I violations, that includes a five-year postseason ban and loss of all revenue sharing in postseason play.
Most noticeably, the commission recommends stiffer penalties for coaches that knowingly break rules — including potential lifetime bans.
“Currently, the rewards for violating the rules far outweigh the risks,” Rice said.
The commission also called out university presidents, saying administrators can’t be allowed to turn a blind eye to infractions. It also recommends university presidents should be required to “certify annually that they have conducted due diligence and that their athletic programs comply with NCAA rules.”
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In a direct reference to the recent NCAA investigation into academic fraud at North Carolina, the commission recommended the NCAA have jurisdiction into that area. She said the loophole that all students, not just athletes, were able to benefit from the fraudulent classes should not be a legitimate defense.
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The commission did not make any recommendations in the area of paying collegiate athletes or enabling them to earn money off their names or likenesses. Rice did address the issue, but acquiesced to the courts for now.
“I know this is an issue on the minds of many, and the commission thought long and hard about this,” she said. “In the end, we respected the fact that that legal ramifications of NCAA action on name, image and likeness are currently before the courts. We don’t believe that the NCAA can legislate in this area until the legal parameters become clearer.
“That said, most commissioners believe that the rules on name, image and likeness should be taken up as soon as the legal framework is established. It is hard for the public, and frankly for me, to understand what can be allowed within the college model and what can’t be allowed without opening the door to professionalizing college basketball.”
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23307754/nba-official-early-entry-list-sets-new-record-236-players
236 players have declared as early-entries (underclassmen or internationals) for the NBA draft, 181 of which are college players. The numbers last year were 182/137, so a huge increase. Only 64 underclassmen kept their name in the draft last year, and most will withdraw their name this year as well. Still, 55 have already hired an agent so they can’t go back to college.
Remember, there are only 60 draft picks in the NBA draft.
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The last relevant Rice Owls sport is now at a crossroads with the poorly handled termination of Coach Graham’s tenure.
http://www.fox26houston.com/sports/wayne-graham-leaving-rice-after-the-2018-season
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I think it’s hard to handle this sort of scenario well. The guy is 82 and showed no sign of wanting to retire as far as I can tell. He’s still winning, but not as much as he used to. It’s the baseball equivalent of Bobby Bowden at FSU.
Having a former player campaigning to push him out so the player can replace him isn’t a great look, but that’s on the player and not Rice. Rice is just refusing to extend his contract. That’s about the best the school can do if an old guy won’t retire.
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Texas had difficult ends with Cliff and Augie.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/04/26/nfl-draft-2018-sec-leads-conferences-first-round-picks/556611002/
The SEC dominated the 1st round of the NFL draft yet again.
SEC – 10 (only 1 in the top 10, though)
ACC – 6 (1st time brothers both went in round 1)
B10 – 4 (2 of the top 4, still no QB taken in round 1)
P12 – 4 (2 QBs in the top 7)
MWC – 3
ND – 2
B12 – 1 (2 years in a row with just 1 pick)
The 14 B10 members had a pretty typical year with 4 picks. Over the previous 10 drafts the 14 schools combined for 48 1st round picks, so 4.8 per year. With several B10 players among the best available for the start of round 2, 4 picks is typical.
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Day 2 went much like day 1 except the B12 did better. The B10 had 8 picks in 2 more rounds, maintaining the average of 4 picks per round.
Breakdown by conference (total / round 1):
SEC – 26 / 10
ACC – 17 / 6
B10 – 12 / 4
P12 – 11 / 4
B12 – 7 / 1
AAC – 6 / 1
MWC – 5 / 3
CUSA – 3 / 1
ND – 2 / 2
Other – 9 / 0
Top schools so far:
5 – AL, UGA, OSU
4 – USC, LSU
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2018-nfl-draft-picks-by-college-school-alabama-sets-record-with-12-selections/
Final numbers:
By conference:
SEC – 53
ACC – 45
B10 – 33 (37.7 player average over the previous 10 drafts)
P12 – 30
B12 – 20
AAC – 18
CUSA – 10
MWC – 9
Independent – 5
MAC – 5
Sun Belt – 4
FCS/Division II/III – 23
Per school:
SEC – 3.79
ACC – 3.21
P12 – 2.50
B10 – 2.36
B12 – 2.00
By team:
12 – AL (new SEC record – old one was 10, also by AL)
7 – OSU, LSU, NCSU
6 – PSU, FSU, UGA, Miami
5 – UF, UCLA, VT, UW, WI
Rest of B10:
3 – IA
2 – IU, UMD, UMI, RU
1 – MSU, NE, NW, PU
0 – IL, MN
This is MN’s fifth time in the past 10 drafts with no picks and IL’s third time in the past 5 drafts.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/04/2018-nfl-draft-college-football-conference-rankings-who-won-the-draft/
A more detailed draft breakdown by conference. Gives picks per round as well as points (1st round = 7, 2nd = 6, …). I’ll add in normalizing the points by the number of schools to make it fair. I’ll also note which schools had no picks.
1. SEC (221 points) – 15.8 pps (points per school)
TOTAL PICKS BY ROUNDS
1st 10, 2nd 11, 3rd 6, 4th 5, 5th 4, 6th 7, 7th 9
Team Winner: Alabama, 12 players
All but UK had a pick.
2. ACC (179 points) – 12.8 pps
TOTAL PICKS BY ROUNDS
1st 6, 2nd 3, 3rd 9, 4th 9, 5th 6, 6th 7, 7th 6
Team Winner: NC State, 7 players
GT and Duke had no picks.
3. Big Ten (144 points) – 10.3 pps
TOTAL PICKS BY ROUNDS
1st 4, 2nd 6, 3rd 3, 4th 8, 5th 7, 6th 5, 7th 2
Team Winner: Ohio State, 7 players
IL and MN had no picks.
4. Pac-12 (113 points) – 9.4 pps
TOTAL PICKS BY ROUNDS
1st 4, 2nd 4, 3rd 4, 4th 3, 5th 4, 6th 6, 7th 2
Team Winner: UCLA, 5 players
All but OrSU had a pick.
5. Big 12 (76 points) – 7.6 pps
TOTAL PICKS BY ROUNDS
1st 1, 2nd 2, 3rd 5, 4th 3, 5th 4, 6th 3, 7th 2
Team Winners: Oklahoma State and Texas, 4 players each
ISU and Baylor had no picks.
—
Just for comparison, AL earned 50 points all by themselves.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/04/30/big-12-nfl-draft-picks-conference-rankings
Some good news for the B12 from the draft.
* Despite having the fewest picks per school, their pps went up from 1.4 to 2.0 this year.
* The median draft pick rose from #140 (early 5th round) to #118 (middle 4th round). Last year the B12’s was on par with the AAC and the AAC had more picks.
This year, that median draft position distribution looks much better for the Big 12.
SEC: 105
Big Ten: 110
Big 12: 118
ACC: 128
Pac-12: 134
American: 174
* The NFL is adapting a little to the passing spread the B12 tends to play.
This development bodes well for the Big 12 because if it can keep producing these kind of draftees and if it can continue making the playoff, the popular notion that the league will be ripped apart in the next round of realignment may disappear. The Big 12 is stronger financially than the Pac-12, where the wholly owned conference network hasn’t produced anywhere near the money schools were sold on when they tried to raid the Big 12 to start it. The Big 12 is on par with the ACC, though it remains to be seen how much difference the ACC Network—scheduled to launch next year—will make. Everyone is chasing the Big Ten and the SEC, and that isn’t likely to change.
If there is to be more realignment—and that isn’t guaranteed now that cable television isn’t driving the train anymore—then talks would begin to heat up near 2022. The Big Ten’s Tier 1 deals with Fox and ESPN expire at the end of the 2022–23 school year. (Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany has hedged well, going short with this six-year deal and long with the Big Ten Network deal, which runs through 2032.) The Pac-12’s Tier 1 deals expire at the end of the 2023–24 school year. The Big 12’s deal, along with the Grant of Rights that keeps the schools tethered to one another, expires the following year. If when all this happens the members of the Big 12 are happy financially and the football teams are competing for national titles and producing quality draft picks, the Big 12 will be just fine*.
*Texas remains the biggest prize in the Big 12 stable, but the Longhorns are quite limited in where they could go if they wanted to leave. Because ESPN owns the Longhorn Network, Texas could likely only go to a league whose rights are wholly owned by ESPN. The ACC is the only one that fits the bill. Also, Texas has a great deal in the Big 12 that probably couldn’t be replicated anywhere else.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23338623/quarterback-shea-patterson-allowed-play-next-season-ncaa-decides
The NCAA has (incorrectly in my opinion) decided that Shea Patterson is eligible to play immediately for Michigan. No more excuses for Harbaugh as he has an elite QB now.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/04/26/college-football-playoff-wont-expand-eight-teams/555617002/
The CFP’s management committee is thrilled with how things have gone so far and where things are at now, to the point that Jim Delany took a vacation rather than attend the annual meeting. There is no talk of expanding the CFP any time soon.
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Hartwick College has abruptly cut their two D1 sports.
http://www.thedailystar.com/news/local_news/hartwick-cuts-d-i-sports-scholarships-vanish/article_7da13cb0-e219-5a1d-816a-647a93c38879.html
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It’s impressive how poorly they handled that. They waited until late spring when many transfer deadlines have passed and then cut the sports effective this fall. Their excuses for dropping the sports are weak, too.
I have no issue with the decision in general, but there is a right way to do it. You announce it well in advance, you stop recruiting foreign players and you honor the players’s scholarships until they graduate. Hartwick did none of those things. Hopefully they can at least find some additional non-athletic financial aid for these students since it’s too late for them to transfer for next fall.
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http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/apr/27/washington-state-athletic-department-in-67-million/
WSU is facing $67M in total debt in the AD and the regents will discuss a plan to deal with it next week. New legislation in the state is forcing them to be more transparent with the athletics budget and I wonder how that will change their spending.
According to the agenda for Thursday’s board of regents meeting at the WSU Health Sciences building in Spokane, the committee will also discuss a bill passed by the Washington Legislature mandating increased transparency and accountability when it comes to athletics budgets.
Another clause in the bill, which was signed in March by Gov. Jay Inslee, states that Washington’s public colleges and universities must approve annual budgets for intercollegiate athletics “in advance of any expenditure for that fiscal year.”
Additionally, the institutions are now required to conspicuously post financial statements and plans on their websites.
WSU posted operating deficits in each of the last six years, totaling $51.5 million, as reported by USA Today. … The president and former A.D. projected WSU to run a $900,000 deficit in fiscal year 2019 and finally get back into the black by 2020, when Schulz and Moos forecast a $300,000 surplus.
…
Excessive spending in athletics can largely be traced to Moos’ goal to keep WSU relevant in the Pac-12’s facilities race. The school spent $61 million on its new football operations building, which was completed in 2014, and WSU’s earnings from a television deal with the Pac-12 Networks fell short of initial projections, adding to the debt.
…
WSU’s athletics debt has skyrocketed at a time the university is dealing with sweeping budget cuts. In October, Schulz laid out a plan and instructed each department at all five of WSU’s campuses to reduce spending by 2.5 percent in fiscal year 2018. Schulz hopes WSU can cut $10 million from an estimated $30 million in annual deficit spending.
We often talk about Cal’s financial problems. This is a reminder that the financial problems are wider than that in the P12.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/05/03/audit-finds-mismanagement-in-washington-state-athletics/34521935/
An audit of WSU’s AD has found mismanagement under the previous AD (now at Nebraska), including financial issues. That’s not good when you already have financial problems.
“The environment within Athletics … did not support a culture of compliance or fiscal responsibility,” according to the audit, which was completed in mid-April.
…
“All aspects of the organization structure of WSU Athletics are being evaluated and will be restructured as appropriate by the new Director of Athletics,” the university said in its management response to the audit. “A new culture and work climate are already being implemented.”
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http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-larry-scott-basketball-20180428-story.html
Larry Scott has unique insight into the college basketball issues as his sons play AAU hoops. He was interviewed about it recently.
Listen to what Condoleezza Rice, the former secretary of State and chairwoman of the NCAA’s special commission, said a few days ago: “The corruption we observed in college basketball has its roots in youth basketball … there are good programs — but there are too many that condone illicit behavior.”
Coaches and program directors have worked secretly with dishonest recruiters and agents. In 2000, Myron Piggie pleaded guilty to federal charges after paying young stars — including Kareem and JaRon Rush — who played for his Kansas City club.
More recently, the FBI investigation alleged that thousands of dollars were funneled into a Florida program with the intent of influencing prospects.
“You hear a lot of these things,” Scott said. “Obviously there is a certain stigma.”
…
At the tournament in Garden Grove earlier this month, folding chairs along the baseline were reserved for coaches representing numerous schools.
These types of tournaments serve as fertile recruiting ground because club teams can gather top players from their areas, assembling what often amount to all-star rosters.
“I don’t think it’s a given that our coaches have to recruit at events like this,” Scott said.
…
The NCAA’s commission, which agreed with the Pac-12 on most issues, has proposed that recruiters be prohibited from any nonscholastic tournament that does not fully disclose its finances.
The commission also advised the NCAA to partner with the NBA and USA Basketball to create youth programs and summertime combines where recruiters could assess high school prospects without clubs acting as middlemen.
“That development would include not only basketball, but also academic and life skills, health and collegiate eligibility,” Rice said.
Scott anticipates some pushback, not only from the AAU and shoe companies, but perhaps from NCAA leaders expected to vote on potential changes in August.
“Think about all this infrastructure, all these events that colleges and the NCAA don’t have to pay for,” he said. “It would be a significant decision and a significant financial investment.”
…
Subtracting the element of recruiting might diminish some luster from events like this, but Scott believes the scene would continue to thrive.
“There is a role for elite club youth sports,” he says. “I think there is an economy for it.”
In other words, he doesn’t want to kill anything.
“I do see the benefits,” he said. “It just requires some course correction.”
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http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-scott-pac-12-future-20180428-story.html
More from Larry Scott.
“It was definitely a down year,” Scott said. But, he added, “I still see an underlying strength.”
In a series of interviews, Scott acknowledged some missteps while expressing confidence in the face of criticism that has come his way as he enters his ninth year on the job.
…
“ESPN and Fox said to us point-blank, if you want the kind of money the SEC and Big Ten are getting … we can’t give it to you if you’re playing at the same time as those schools,” Scott said. “We’ve tried to go back and renegotiate, but they say, ‘Hey, this is what we bargained for. You wanted more money and we wanted more night games.'”
…
[P12N]
The five-year-old venture has struggled to build viewership, in part because it still has not reached a deal with DirecTV. As a result, SEC and Big Ten schools receive a reported $8 million annually in broadcast fees while Pac-12 schools get about a third of that.
…
Scott, who earns a reported $4 million a year, insists money was never the sole factor when deciding how to proceed with the network.
As a conference that calls itself a home for Olympic sports, he says, the Pac-12 sought to ensure the likes of women’s gymnastics and men’s volleyball get airtime.
“We have 850 events each season and 650 of them are sports other than football and men’s basketball,” Scott said. “If your only objective was money, you wouldn’t put them on the air because they cost a lot to produce and the financial return on investment doesn’t make sense.”
Some administrators in the conference, such as Washington State president Kirk Schulz, have begun to express doubt, suggesting that priorities can change.
“I would never say that you wouldn’t make a different call at some point,” Scott said. “But at this point there’s been a real conviction by our universities and myself that the original purposes of having a Pac-12 network are important.”
Perhaps the best hope for growth rests with emerging platforms such as Amazon and Facebook, which have shown increasing interest in live sports.
“The game is coming to us. There are going to be a lot more options,” Scott said.
The changing media landscape won’t help for a while because the ESPN and Fox deals don’t expire until the 2023-24 season.
For now, it seems, Scott must persuade his critics to remain patient.
“You’re always juggling a lot of competing priorities to find the right balance,” he said. “It’s rare that you get it perfectly right, but you do your best.”
Just for comparison, BTN airs over 500 live events (about 150 are football and men’s hoops) and streams over 1000 more.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/04/greatest-nfl-draft-four-year-runs-is-alabamas-the-greatest-ever/
The greatest 4 years runs of draft picks from a school in CFB history (no overlapping periods allowed) in terms of total picks (only counted rounds 1-7 for older drafts):
1. USC (2006-09) – 37
2. AL (2015-18) – 36
3. Miami (2001-04) – 35
4t. OSU (2001-04) – 33
4t. FSU (2012-15) – 33
6t. TN (2000-03) – 32
6t. ND (1991-94) – 32
8t. OSU (2003-06) – 31
8t. OSU (2015-18) – 31
10. AL (2011-14) – 30
Bold = current streak
* AL had 7 drafted in 2015, so they’d need 8 in 2019 to tie for #1 and 9 to set a new record.
* OSU had 5 drafted in 2015, so they can move up with 6+ picks in 2019. OSU has had 7+ taken in each of the past 3 drafts so it’s likely they’ll move up a few spots.
* Seeing both OSU and Miami from 2001-04 highlights just how much talent was on the field for the 2002 title game. 37 of the 43 starters (Chris Gamble started both ways for OSU) were drafted (18 1st round picks). 52 of the 100 players who played at all were drafted with 58 playing in the NFL.
Top runs for some others of interest:
LSU (2011-14) – 29
UF (2015-18) – 28
NE (1995-98) – 27
PSU (1993-96) – 26
OU (2003-06) – 24
UT (2006-09) – 22
MI (2014-17) – 20
There are more in the article.
MI is shockingly low. That should improve next year (MI will need 4+ players drafted) and hopefully keep climbing in 2020. You’d think they should be able to sustain 4+ players a year with the occasional big year.
2008 – 6
2009 – 2
2010 – 3
2011 – 2 / 13 (4 yr total)
2012 – 3 / 10
2013 – 2 / 10
2014 – 3 / 10
2015 – 3 / 11
2016 – 3 / 11
2017 – 11 / 20
2018 – 2 / 19
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/05/01/urban-meyer-ohio-state-buckeyes-robert-landers
This is a look at how Urban Meyer deals so much more with real life (mental illness, drugs, etc) and life after football than he ever used to with players. While being OSU-centric, I think it speaks to where CFB is heading at many schools.
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https://247sports.com/Article/Where-former-5-star-recruits-landed-in-the-2018-NFL-Draft–117818677
Where former 5* recruits went in the draft.
7 went in the first round this year. 4 5* recruits from the 2015 class came out early and weren’t drafted this year. 7 from the 2014 class haven’t been drafted. 7 from the 2013 class also never got drafted.
Former 5* recruits in the 1st round:
2018 – 7
2017 – 10
2016 – 5
2015 – 8
2014 – 5
2013 – 7
2012 – 4
2011 – 4
5* recruits in the 2018 draft:
1st – 7
2nd – 2
3rd – 4
4th – 2
5th – 1
6th – 2
7th – 1
Considering there are 30-40 5* recruits in a given year, that’s a good success rate.
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http://www.cleveland.com/expo/erry-2018/05/571c0d0f7b6137/49_ohio_college_head_coaches_p.html
When people say the money in college sports is crazy, they aren’t wrong. This is a list of 49 head coaching jobs at public colleges in Ohio that pay $200,000 or more.
Most of the jobs are for basketball and football, but hockey, baseball, volleyball and other sports make the $200,000-plus list as well.
Seventeen of the positions are at Ohio State; the others are spread among 10 other public universities across the state.
18 sports at OSU pay the HC over $200,000. That seems high when only 2 sports turn a profit.
The teams (in reverse order of salary):
Women’s golf – $241k
Women’s swimming and diving
Women’s lacrosse
Men’s soccer
Softball
Men’s swimming and diving
Men’s volleyball
Women’s soccer – $284k
Women’s volleyball – $375k (this is the first big jump)
Men’s lacrosse
Women’s rowing – $388k
Men’s hockey – $439k
Baseball – $444k
Men’s tennis – $491k
Wrestling – $494k
Women’s basketball – $1.17M
Men’s basketball – $3.78M
Football – $5.48M
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Frankly, you are wrong. If you want to be competitive in a sport, you have to get a great coach, regardless of whether the sport makes money.
This reality lies behind paying students. If you pay one, every varsity student must (and will) get the same stipend. People deny this, but they don’t understand the reality of college regulation. The only way you can get higher amounts of money to college stars is to let them sign contracts with sports companies and agents. That solves the star problem without any civil rights implications.
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How is the market for the coach of a money-losing sport this high? What would be the big impact of having a less expensive coach? How strong is the correlation between salary and success for these sports? It’s not like OSU is raking in titles in many of these sports. And there are a lot of other sports at OSU that didn’t top the $200,000 barrier.
Why is women’s volleyball coach worth at least $175k more than the women’ field hockey coach (just a random example)? What would happen if the WVB coach only made $175k? The current coach has losing record in the B10 after 10 seasons. It’s a small roster with a small staff, so why is the HC worth almost $400K? In 2013, the WVB coach got $265k including all his bonuses after winning the national title so clearly you don’t need to pay $400k to get a decent coach.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/report-alabama-shells-out-nearly-2-million-for-future-home-game-vs-utah-state/
AL is paying Utah State $1.9M for a game in 2022. That’s great money for the Aggies but an odd choice for the Tide.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/tennessee-fires-chancellor-beverly-davenport-after-just-over-one-year-on-the-job/
The horrible TN coaching search has claimed another victim. The new chancellor at UT-K was demoted after a year (back to faculty). One of her first acts was to hire the new AD who flubbed the search, and then she fired him and hired Fulmer instead. The president of the UT system just decided that UT-K needed new leadership.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/espn/may-coverage-estimates-big-drops-espn-fs1-nbcsn-league-networks.html
May’s estimates of how many households each TV channel is in. This is especially relevant now because it shows the impact of Comcast dropping BTN outside the footprint. The data does include streaming services.
The first thing to note is that all networks were down, with cable/sat/streaming homes dropping from 96,803,000 to 96,272,000 over the month (only about 2.7M of that is streamers only).
BTN numbers:
8/17 – 57,595,000 (oldest one they have)
3/18 – 57,138,000
4/18 – 58,854,000
5/18 – 58,240,000
That’s a loss of only 614,000 households ($61,400 per month in subscriber fees). ESPN lost 500,000 households, so BTN really only lost 114,000 extra households ($11,400 per month).
The key conclusions from this data are perhaps twofold. For one thing, the landscape is becoming extremely difficult for league, sport-specific, or conference-specific networks, and at least part of that seems to be about a growing shift to streaming or cable “skinny” bundles. It looks like there are lots of people willing to buy packages that include the likes of ESPN, FS1, and NBCSN, but don’t necessarily have all the league or conference networks. (Comcast’s moves here to remove or boost the tier of BTN and NFLN are a significant factor as well.) And if these networks don’t offer games that are compelling to huge masses of subscribers, that’s likely to remain the case.
But beyond that, there are certainly concerns for the national networks as well. If the year-over-year trend continues at its current level, that’s probably okay for them; it’s not great, but it’s not disastrous. But if the April to May change winds up being a larger indication of the modern climate, that should get a lot of people worrying. ESPN, for example, is probably okay losing around 1.6 million subscribers from last February through now; that’s not great, but it’s also not a cord-cutting apocalypse, especially with them laying off tons of talent to lower costs and getting additional revenue from ESPN+. But losing 500,000 subscribers every single month would be disastrous for them, as that would be 6 million in the course of a year and 7.5 million in a 15-month span (like February 2017 through now). So those in Bristol will certainly be hoping that this month’s data isn’t a larger trend, and their counterparts at other national networks will be joining in.
I wonder if the B10 will push to get some better games for BTN during the next round of negotiations to bolster the value of BTN or if they decide it’s better to focus on maximizing the value from outside networks.
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The P12 spring meetings are this week.
There’s the usual agenda of standard discussions, but some other topics should come up:
Count on the men’s basketball coaches and athletic directors having a detailed discussion of the merits of a 20-game conference schedule. (Background here.)
I don’t expect a final decision, and certainly the 2018-19 season will feature the normal 18-game lineup.
…
*** Non-conference basketball schedules
To be fair, this is an ongoing discussion — and key topic for the Pac-12’s strategic planning committee — because the makeup of non-conference schedules plays a central role in NCAA tournament access.
But in view of the selection committee’s treatment of Arizona State, and USC, are there lessons for other programs to apply in 2018-19 and beyond?
…
*** Pac-12 Networks content
The networks have been overly egalitarian with respect to football, men’s basketball and Olympic sports content and programming.
* Football is the prime mover of audience engagement and revenue generation. It is not the tide that lifts all boats. It is the moon that lifts the tide that lifts the boats.
* The Pac12Nets are a linear and digital marketing platform for the conference.
* Where football meets marketing, opportunities must be maximized.
My sense is that Shuken, who has been on the job since September — he didn’t have a chance to set the content/programming framework for the 2017 season — understands that a shift in approach is necessary.
(I don’t expect he’ll get much pushback from the campuses, either.)
…
*** Football everything.
…
The 12 head coaches, the 12 athletic directors and three key conference officials (Scott, deputy commissioner Jamie Zaninovich and general counsel Woodie Dixon, who oversees football administration) must consider any and all options.
The backdrop to all football matters, of course, are the looming Tier One media negotiations, which will begin in the fall of 2022.
The value assigned to Pac-12 content by ESPN or Fox or Amazon or Facebook will depend, almost exclusively, on the strength of the football brand.
Significant change can take time to implement and more time to generate results.
When it comes to working for the betterment of football, the conference needs to start this afternoon.
Wilner will also be writing a series of articles about all things financial in the P12 (not just P12N stuff) all during May.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/columnist/bell/2018/05/02/nfl-helmet-rule-hits-officials/575189002/
Some relevant info for the concerns about head injuries in football.
At one point on Tuesday, one of the head coaches acknowledged the validity of injury data (such as 46% of documented concussions suffered during games the past three seasons occurred during helmet-to-helmet hits) and the risks of faulty techniques, but added a layer of perspective by imploring the “need to get the shoulder back in the game.”
“What else is there to hit with?” the coach asked.
The coach also implored the NFL to obtain data that will reveal what percentage of concussions are linked to impact through the face mask. Another coach wants research that might establish patterns related to a player turning his head to avoid contact.
Los Angeles Chargers coach Anthony Lynn, meanwhile, related that upon returning from Orlando after owners passed the latest rule, he met with his equipment manager and was stunned to discover that 47% of his player wore poor-performing helmets. The league and NFL Players Association recently banned continual use of the 10 worst-performing helmets worn by players.
Now Lynn will implore his players to wear newer, form-fitting helmets designed to better absorb shock.
If NFL helmets fit that poorly, how bad is the problem at schools which lack the budget to have lots of extra helmets or to frequently replace helmets as they suffer hits?
I do think the NFL needs to stop offensive players from leading with their heads too. So much focus is put on defenders, but many concussions come when a runner lowers their head before impact. How about making everyone stay upright? Hit with their chests and wrap up on defense (rugby-style) and not lower their shoulders to plow into people on offense.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2018/05/02/michigan-state-larry-nassar-ncaa-violations/575738002/
MSU declares that no NCAA rules were broken in the Nassar scandal.
The university responded on March 22 in a letter from attorney Mike Glazier, of the law firm Bond, Schoeneck & King, PLLC, to the NCAA’s vice president of enforcement. Glazier listed the current ongoing investigations of the university, including those by the Michigan Attorney General’s Office, U.S. Congress and the U.S. Department of Education.
“I trust that you will see that the University is in no way attempting to sidestep the issues facing it, and that if the University had any reason to believe the criminal conduct of Nassar also implicated NCAA rules violations, the University would accept responsibility in that area as well,” Glazier wrote in the letter, which MSU released on Wednesday.
“However, after a thorough and analytic examination of NCAA legislation, and an application of the known facts associated with the Nassar matter to NCAA legislation, the University finds no NCAA rules violations.”
Glazier said Nassar’s criminal conduct was “abhorrent and a violation of every standard of conduct expected of university of employees.”
The letter recapped a meeting and phone calls involving MSU and NCAA officials that refined the issues the university needed to address in its response. It also stated that the university is committed to NCAA Bylaw 20.9.1.6, which covers the well-being of student athletes including their health and safety, but notes that bylaw is a guide and not subject to enforcement.
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It worked for North Carolina, so why not MSU?
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They are probably correct in terms of the rules. I doubt sexual assault is mentioned in the rule book. Unless the NCAA takes the approach they did with PSU and uses some of the more nebulous parts of the by-laws, I’m not sure they can be punished. The courts took care of the attacker and some of the enablers could get in further trouble.
Should the NCAA be in the business of punishing schools for things like this? This seems to me like something the legal system should handle. UNC was different because laws weren’t broken. That was a prime example of why the NCAA should add a by-law giving them broader punishment powers for conduct detrimental or some such legalese.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/05/03/pac-12-reports-revenues-topping-500-million-for-first-time/34525635/
The P12 had revenue of $509M last year (2016-17), the first time they’ve topped $500M. They distributed $371M to the schools ($30.9M each on average).
SEC – $41M
B10 ~ $38.5M (actual numbers not released yet)
B12 – $34.3M (+ tier 3)
P12 – $30.9M
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Jon Wilner looks into the numbers a little deeper since the P12 decided to issue a press release to trumpet their revenue.
My interest, as noted in this insta-reaction column, is less in the total revenue than the campus payouts. The mission of the conference, after all, is to serve the schools. They are the conference.
Since the Pac-12 issued a look-at-our numbers release, which is certainly within its right, that’s exactly what I did:
The crack Hotline research staff compared the Pac-12’s percentage increase in campus distributions to those of the other Power Five conferences.
…
The Pac-12 said it has increased the cash sent to its schools by 63 percent over a five-year window.
(In raw dollars, the bookends are the $228 million distributed in FY13 and the $371 million distributed in FY17.)
How does that 63 percent increase compare?
Over the same span, the Big 12 has increased its campus payouts by 69 percent.
The Big Ten has increased its payouts by 79 percent.
The SEC has increased its payouts by, um, 99 percent.
…
But it sure appears that the Pac-12 has not performed as well as its peers when it comes to the rate of increase of the dollars sent to the schools.
(I’ll plead ignorant on the ACC, which has a more complicated distribution process and has lagged the other conferences in revenue.)
The Pac-12 has been in a structural status quo during the entirety of the 2013-17 timeframe: Same Tier I deal with ESPN and Fox; same business model for the Pac-12Networks; same conference membership.
Meanwhile, the Big Ten and SEC have undergone some changes that served to boost revenue.
Let’s outline the state of each conference:
*** The Big Ten added Maryland and Rutgers, which caused a revision — but not an overhaul — of its Tier I deals.
That overhaul came at a later date and will be evident when the conference reports financial data for FY18: It’s expected to send $50 million to each campus.
In growth-rate terms, $50 million per campus will constitute a 140 percent increase over the timeframe used by the Pac-12.
*** The SEC hasn’t expanded in the past few years, but it did launch the SEC Network with an entirely different business model than the Pac-12 used.
Whereas the Pac-12 owns 100 percent of its network, the SEC owns zero percent.
Instead, it secured a revenue-sharing arrangement with ESPN that has produced a cash windfall for the campuses and is a key reason for the 99 percent increase in payouts cited above.
*** The Big 12, meanwhile, has been churning along, with no structural changes but a slightly higher percentage increase in campus dollars than the Pac-12.
…
Interpret the numbers however you’d like and be mindful of nuance.
There’s no question the Pac-12 has made enormous strides financially, as it pointed out in the news release.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/pac12/2018/05/08/pac-12-larry-scott-highest-paid-commissioner/590293002/
Speaking of P12 finances, Larry Scott made $4.8M last year. That’s much more than other commissioners make including more than double what the SEC’s commish makes.
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Bowlsby on Big 12: https://www.wvgazettemail.com/sports/wvu/q-a-with-bob-bowlsby-big-commissioner-reviews-year-looks/article_c44d0e45-de32-50a0-9465-188cd9e83b04.html
“…G-M: Can you could pinpoint one reason why the league didn’t expand? Was there pressure from your network partners not to do so?
BOWLSBY: There’s not a short answer to that. We went through a long process of analyzing a lot of data. Essentially, when it came down to it, there wasn’t an institution or group of institutions that had the requisite votes to be elected to membership. It requires a super majority of eight out of 10. Although there weren’t any votes taken, it was apparent there wasn’t an institution that had the requisite votes. For each of our 10 members it was an individual decision. They probably came to those in different ways….”
“G-M: When you signed a new extension through 2024-25, I assume some of that was so you could handle — and maybe get a running start on — media rights negotiations. What are your early thoughts on that?
BOWLSBY: I appreciate the confidence our Board of Directors have shown in me and my leadership. I’m very bullish on our future, but we do have some important decisions coming up. Our Tier 1 media contracts involving football and men’s basketball, particularly, come up in ’24-25. There are a number of opportunities for us between now and then that will require some negotiation and thinking about how we want to structure things.
Among the most interesting things to me is the changing landscape of the sports media environment. The world is consuming sports and news in ways that were unforeseen a few years ago. Anyone that tells you they know what will be happening in the world of media three or four years from now is delusional. It’s changing so fast it’s difficult to make such forecasts. I find it fascinating and think we’ll be right in the middle of it. We’ll have some tremendous opportunities. I feel very good about the next few years….”
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https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/5/1/17292230/nfl-draft-college-football-recruiting-prospects-by-state
A deeper look at the football talent by state. This article looks at where blue chip recruits (top 400, so all the 5* and 4* players plus some) and NFL players come from and why those aren’t the same.
We all know that the top recruiting states are TX, FL, CA and GA then everyone else. Those 4 states combine for 48% of all the blue chips over the past 5 years. When you normalize by population, the numbers favor DC and the southeast as the top per capita producers of blue chips. The same areas lead in production of current NFL players per capita. I don’t think any of that comes as news to anyone.
What is new is that the article looked at the differences between per capita blue chip production and per capita NFL player production. The data is presented in a color-coded map (red = more recruits than players, blue = more players than recruits) that you should definitely go look at. But the red area is a rectangle from TX and OK on the west to FL, GA and TN on the east with AL by far the most red state and TX the next most red. The only other red state was MD. Meanwhile, the north is a bastion of blue with MT and DE the most blue by far. Oddly SC is also blue.
This shows that northern players seem to be less developed or unfairly rated as recruits but develop into better players than expected. The opposite trend happens in the south. As I mentioned above, it’s important to note that the south still produces more NFL players per capita (perhaps related to the distribution of African-Americans in the US). The south just isn’t as far ahead at that level as they are after high school.
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https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2018/5/4/17314902/disparities-in-recruiting-rankings-midwest-texas-south-florida-boise-state
This article looks at why these regional disparities exist.
Theories:
1. The recruiting services are incentivized to invest more time and scouting into the south
2. There are more opportunities to scout and evaluate kids in the South
Nike currently has eight SPARQ events scheduled for 2018. They’ll be taking place in:
-Miami, FL
-Dallas, TX
-Houston, TX
-San Francisco, CA
-Los Angeles, CA
-Atlanta, GA
-New York/New Jersey (the Jets facility)
-Canton, OH
That’s where you can get laser timed 40s and the rest of the Nike tests done rather than relying on hand times or trying to look up track records, it gives players a chance to do drills against the other best athletes in a region, and it creates hype and evaluation opportunities for recruiting writers.
The South also has more 7on7 camps and other events because football is more of an intense, year-round sport in that region than in the cold of the Northeast, Midwest, or greater western US.
3. There are some underrated regions located nearby programs known for their development
4. Wisconsin gonna Wisconsin
Now here are some interesting takeaways I’ve had from the data in terms of what’s going on and what could be occurring in the future.
Urban Meyer’s wandering eye
When Ohio State won the national championship in 2014 their starting lineup included eight Ohioans on offense (including the QB and entire OL) and seven Ohioans on defense. They also had three former 3-stars on defense and seven former 3-stars on offense. Four of those were the OL.
…
The 2018 Buckeyes look like a national contender but only figure to start seven Ohioans TOTAL (five on offense with two on the OL, two on defense) and only have two former 3-stars projected to end up in the starting lineup. One of those 3-stars is an Ohioan being asked to carry on the tradition at center (Brady Taylor) After winning big with Midwest talent, Meyer has leveraged that success into national recruiting with regular forays into Texas to sign the top players from the Lone Star state and into Florida and other favorite locals to take the top rated players in the country.
…
Leighton Vander Esch and the consistency of rural overachievers
While places like North Dakota and Idaho probably punched above their weight in bluechip prospects because of the football programs that are nearby, that just stands to confirm the fact that while America’s rural population is smaller, more dispersed, and harder/more costly to evaluate, it still produces a lot of football talent. The better players out in nowhere Wisconsin or up in Bismarck are often as good or better than the players in Atlanta or Houston but they are rarely going to be rated as such because it’s hard to verify something like that until they prove it on a college field.
…
Roughly 19.3% of the American population, or 60 million people, live in “rural” parts of the country. That’s a small fraction of both the population and the prospects but you’re still talking about tens of million of people. In a pool that big, stories like Leighton Vander Esch’s can’t help but happen regularly. Some of them are cropping up in the south and everyone becomes aware of them, some of them are not.
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Race doesn’t matter. That 80% of college athletes are black is an irrelevant statistical fluke.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/05/07/pac-12-schedule-larry-scott-playoff-rankings
Andy Staples on why the P12 needs to schedule for success, a point Jon Wilner stresses often. It’s a lengthy column that’s worth the read.
Last fall, a Pac-12 coach lamented to me that his league doesn’t engage in “scheduling for success” as the ACC and SEC do. The coach, who obviously didn’t want the quote attributed to him for fear of riling the league office, probably was still being too nice. Last year, it felt as if the Pac-12 scheduled in a manner to keep its teams from competing for the College Football Playoff. And lo and behold, the Pac-12 missed the playoff for the second time in four seasons.
But here’s the good news. Scott and his staff listened on one point. Last year, four teams had to play Friday night road games six days after playing a Saturday road game. The visiting team was 0–4 in those Friday night games. One of those losses—USC falling at Washington State on Sept. 29—was one of the Pac-12 champion’s two regular-season losses. (The other loss came when a Notre Dame team coming off a bye week romped through the injury-depleted Trojans defense as USC, which didn’t get its open date until the regular season’s final week, played the eighth of 12 consecutive games.)
…
Calling Cal traveling to Stanford a “road trip” probably is stretching the definition of the phrase to its breaking point, but you get the drift. Forcing teams to play a conference game in a hostile environment six days after they played a conference game in a hostile environment is scheduling for failure. And to their credit, Scott and league officials listened to their coaches and athletic directors. No Pac-12 team will have to play a Friday night road game following a Saturday road game in 2018. “Some of our frontrunners got nailed by it,” Scott said. “So we changed that.”
That’s excellent. The league made a change that harms no one and could ultimately help everyone. Now it’s time for that gentle criticism. The league didn’t go far enough. It can help its teams more with a few tweaks to the schedule. And since schedules are made years in advance, the Pac-12 needs to move quickly to realize any benefit from the changes before the current media rights deal nears its expiration point and the realignment tilt-a-whirl spins again.
Scott understands the criticism. “The culture has been very pure historically,” he said with regard to scheduling. “Some would say rigid.” An increase in Friday games and night games came with the media rights deal the Pac-12 signed in 2011, but the league did little to adjust to how these changes might affect the success of teams. Meanwhile, the ACC and SEC have changed their scheduling to help their teams.
ACC and SEC teams play eight conference games, and both leagues allow teams to use the penultimate Saturday of the regular season for non-conference games—typically of the wet, hot garbage variety. … There is nothing more sacred about the Saturday before Thanksgiving than there is the third Saturday in September, but these two leagues apparently were the only ones to notice.
…
The ACC and SEC also play only eight conference games, while the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12 play nine. No one is forcing those leagues to play nine, and the Pac-12’s conference schedule is a remnant from the Pac-10, when a nine-game conference schedule meant the league played a full round-robin. Scott said playing eight has come up in conference meetings, but it has been a non-starter mostly because Pac-12 schools need to play better games to get fans to show up. The ninth conference game gives members another quality game without forcing them to hunt for one.
By the way, this need to get—and keep—butts in the seats will eventually be the thing that makes the SEC consider moving to nine conference games. Many of that league’s ADs are concerned about ticket sales, and even the ones who sell all their tickets can’t stand looking out to see half the seats empty during some games. They keep trying to enhance the fan experience to stem the tide, but the only way to truly enhance the fan experience is to schedule better games. The ACC likely would be the last league to consider going to nine conference games because five teams are forced each season to play a de facto conference game against Notre Dame.
But instead of complaining about the way the ACC and SEC have outsmarted the other leagues, the Pac-12 could choose to follow their example. That doesn’t mean the Pac-12 needs to drop to eight conference games. But it does mean the league could try to help its teams through scheduling. When asked about this, Scott assumed it was a question about giving potential national title contenders an easier path. “No favoritism has been shown to any school,” he said. And none should be.
…
Scott doesn’t seem fundamentally opposed to the idea of scheduling for success. He also wasn’t opposed to being more flexible for television, and that helped bring the league’s media rights deal out of the stone age. Perhaps it’s time for another paradigm shift so the Conference of Champions has a better chance to compete for a national championship in the most important, most lucrative sport.
“Given the stakes of the playoff, should we re-evaluate?” Scott asked rhetorically.
The answer, of course, is yes. And your schools should have done it yesterday.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2018/05/07/comcast-said-plan-cash-deal-beat-disney-fox-assets/588876002/
Comcast has upped the ante by outbidding Disney for the Fox assets. Comcast is offering $60M in cash while Disney offered $52.4B. Rupert Murdoch rejected a previous offer from Comcast.
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https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/05/08/we-getting-close-asu-grand-canyon-basketball-showdown/592174002/
Grand Canyon is moving to non-profit status and ASU is looking to remove their block on ASU teams playing GCU in sports.
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https://ftw.usatoday.com/2018/05/nebraska-football-cleats-money-emojis-reaction-adidas-scandal-fbi-college-jokes
What were they thinking?
Adidas created new cleats for Nebraska this year. They are green with the 3 stripes in gold plus money emojis in white all over the shoes. Why would a company under FBI investigation for paying college players come up with these? And why would they ask unpaid players to wear shoes with money emojis all over them?
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Jon Wilner looks a little deeper into the P12’s financial data from last year.
*** Revenue
The total revenue of $509.4 million is a conference record and represents a 4.3 percent increase over FY16.
The vast majority came, per usual, from three streams.
TV rights: $326.1 million
Football postseason: $113.4 million
March Madness: $35.1 million
No major changes here, as compared to FY16.
Just a reminder how much more valuable football is than anything else.
*** Pac-12 Networks
The conference-owned linear TV network reported $127.9 million in income in FY17, which is $300,000 less than the FY16 figure, breaking a years-long stretch of growth.
Unfortunately, the conference is anything but transparent when it comes to reporting Pac-12 Networks expenses, so we’re left to make educated guesses.
We know the total income, and we know, based on sources and documents obtained from the schools, that the networks distributed approximately $2.5 million to each campus in FY17.
(That amount is included in the gross payout figures cited above.)
If a total of $30 million in distributions by the networks is backed out of the $127.9 million in income, we’re left with $98 million.
Do the Pac12Nets have $98 million in expenses? They’re expensive to operate … damn expensive … but $98 million seems a bit much.
…
If expenses are less than $98 million, where is the cash not sent to the schools?
Again, the conference refuses to provide any clarity on the networks’ financial operations.
*** Expenses
The headline number here is $4.8 million, which was commissioner Larry Scott’s compensation in 2016 (salaries are reported on calendar, not fiscal years).
That’s an outrageous amount, but don’t blame Scott. Blame the oversight, or lack thereof, by the presidents and chancellors. They ultimately run the show.
…
Let’s address another, critical topic, one that applies to both revenues and expenses.
The Pac-12 distributed 72.9 percent of its revenue to the campuses ($371 million out of $509 million). That’s a slight uptick over FY16 but far below the distribution percentages of other conferences.
Of course, no other Power Five is structured like the Pac-12.
…
But here’s the problem:
The Pac-12’s lack of transparency with regard to expenses means we don’t know exactly how much the networks cost to operate …
Which makes it impossible to know exactly what the conference office is doing with the money …
Which makes it impossible to know if there is wasteful spending or if every available dime is being sent to the schools.
…
*** Unanswered questions
After obtaining a copy of the 990s Tuesday morning, I spent several hours examining both the FY17s and copies of previous tax filings to identify changes or trends.
I was confused on a few matters, sent a series of questions to the conference and gave it 48 hours to respond.
That’s more time than I would typically allow, but there has been significant turnover in the CFO role — Laura Hazlett, hired last summer, was gone by March (to pursue other opportunities) — and providing additional time for responses seemed fair.
The questions:
1) What is the explanation for the $3 million (approx) drop in conference advertising revenue?
2) What accounts for the $300,000 downturn in Pac-12 Networks income after several years of $10+ million annual increases? Additionally, how does that downturn square with the whopping increase in assets for Pac-12 Enterprises?
Enterprises, the broader entity that houses Pac-12 Networks and Pac-12 Properties, saw its assets grow from $72.5 million in FY16 to $102.8 million in FY17.
That’s a 40+ percent increase in assets during a fiscal year in which income for the largest revenue generator, the Pac-12 Networks, dipped.
(Income and assets are different, obviously, but I was hoping for some context.)
3) In the compensation section of the 990s, the conference lists five independent contractors — one of which, Proskauer Rose LLP, was paid $3.9 million in legal services.
Yet in the statement of functional expenses (line 11B), the conference lists just $302,512 for legal.
Where are the Proskauer payments?
There is no other $3.9 million expense listed in the “fees for services” section.
I suppose it could be wrapped into the $4.4 million listed in “other” expenses, but why would legal be considered “other”?
(There were additional payments to independent contractors — more than $9 million, in fact — that were not readily identifiable in the statement of functional expenses. I asked about those, as well.)
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Condy Rice and Commission of College Basketball says players should be able to make money on their names. She has also said (not in this article) that legislation will be needed. Well the first legislation better be an amendment to Title IX. https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2018/5/9/17338014/ncaa-college-basketball-commission-condoleezza-rice
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It’s not just legislation. They need the current court cases to be disposed of as well. Until the judges make their decisions, it’s pointless for the NCAA to try to make any major changes.
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Here is where Rice talks about legislation. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/05/09/ncaa-mens-basketball-rules-incomprehensible-condoleezza-rice/596549002/
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I wonder if Rice and her committee have thought about exactly allowing players to make money on their names (or likeness) would work (ignoring Title IX issues). I can see it now. A high school All American defensive tackle meets with Alabama and learns that a local businessman wants him as a spokesman for $50,000 per year. Auburn comes with a $55,000 sponsorship. Then he goes to U. Southern California and an LA businessman wants him as a company representative for $60,000. Once names and likenesses can be sold, how is this controlled?
What if you are a really good offensive left tackle (say a likely second or third round NFL draft pick), but no one is paying you to show your face on their product. What if the star QB (likely fourth or fifth round NFL draft pick) is getting serious money from the big car dealership. Resentment much?
In the world of the B1G, say that Nebraska boosters are much more into putting up big bucks than Wisconsin supporters. Does the power in the B1G West shift since more Nebraska players can get more lucrative opportunities to sell a likeness?
Will the result simply be that under the table payments are put on the table?
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I think they short answer to your question is “No.” It’s easy to say that the players should be able to make money from their name/likeness but the devil is in the details. And don’t forget the push to liberalize the transfer rules as well. That’s a huge area begging for abuse if you allow payments.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/23463876/skechers-sues-adidas-false-advertising-unfair-competition-alleged-payments-high-school-college-players
Skechers is suing Adidas over their illegal payments to athletes and their families.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/05/14/sports-betting-why-supreme-court-ruling-win-millions-fans/607687002/
As I’m sure everyone has heard, the Supreme Court has struck down PASPA, the law that only allowed sports gambling in Nevada. The NCAA fought against this and lost. Now states can step in and regulate gambling. Many states have been pushing for this (NJ, NY, PA, WV, MS, …) so it should happen pretty quickly. I expect some states to reflexively ban it at first but eventually the potential revenue stream will be too much to ignore.
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Chris Christie of New Jersey started this litigation. Sports gambling should be available in NJ within two weeks.
There is a bit of back story here. NJ would have started sports gambling many years ago to help Atlantic City survive. NJ couldn’t because of the 1992 Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, which banned sports gambling in all but four states. Of the four, only Nevada allowed the sports books. (The reporting is that only Nevada was allowed to have sports betting. That is wrong)
NJ and Nevada were the only two states with major casinos, so NJ was the place that was really impacted by the Federal law. The moving force behind the law – Democratic NJ US Senator Bill Bradley. Bradley reflected on his days with Princeton and the Knicks and decided that the state that he represented in the Senate should not have the right to a sports book.
Of course, since Bradley is a sainted figure in NJ, one rarely reads about his role in this. This law was one of several reasons that Atlantic City has been in trouble for years. Sports books in AC could have made the difference.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/05/sports_betting_sports_gambling_us_supreme_court_new_jersey.html#incart_big-photo
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This decision will have a huge impact on college sports. It’s a potentially large revenue stream for states and maybe the schools but greatly increases the concerns over point-shaving and other shenanigans. This also will greatly increase interest in crappy football games like weeknight MACtion.
As sports gambling becomes legal on mobile devices, I’m curious how this impacts a generation that can’t put down their phones. Gambling addiction is a serious problem and device addiction is a problem for many. Combining the two things could be very bad.
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Even in a more restrictive environment, the Boston College 1978/79 MBB team managed to shave points for bookies repeatedly. Eventually they were caught. With legalized gambling, how many teams will succumb to bribes to fix the point spread?
This morning, lots of commentators remembered the Chicago Black Sox, but no one I heard remembered the BC Eagles.
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And much more recently:
http://articles.latimes.com/1997/dec/06/sports/sp-61336
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http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/05/should-cfp-committee-consider-intent-future-scheduling/
Should the CFP committee consider the intent behind scheduling when evaluating teams and who they played?
Though it all makes perfect sense, engineering a schedule with the highest level of competition possible (especially given the freedom of a partial independent), Swarbrick’s next comment is thought-provoking.
“Intent is part of what the selection committee looks at. A program might be down by the time you get to it, but when you schedule that game – who were they, what does it say about your intent?”
…
What we can be certain of is this – no where in the CFP committee’s selection criteria is “intent” mentioned.
Though strength of schedule is one of the four pillars of the protocol, no specific guidelines are offered for how difficulty is determined, and no guidance is given on “how to” build an acceptable schedule.
What is presented is an avenue for independent programs to earn a bracket spot.
[begin excerpt from CFP rules]
The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, Presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.
[end excerpt]
But again, this has nothing to do with intent, something that Swarbrick not just contends the committee should honor, but that they do use it as a factor in deciding which four teams make the CFP.
I would say that you can give a small value to intent, but mostly in regards to the lesser OOC games. Did they choose a decent G5 team or a terrible I-AA cupcake? I’d also look at the intent behind when they played a certain game (OOC cupcake in the penultimate week versus in September). Of more concern to me is that the committee doesn’t seem to value SOS in terms of playing 10+ P5 games. 3 P5 conferences play 9 conference games plus requiring at least 1 P5 OOC game. Add in a CCG and the conference champ is playing at least 11 P5 teams. Meanwhile the committee is giving the most playoff spots to the conferences that only play 8 conference games and conveniently fit in November cupcakes.
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I agree that intent should only count for a little when you look at OOC scheduling. Otherwise the schedule needs to be reviewed at the conclusion of the season with maybe an exception for a team you beat that was ranked high mid way through the season but then suffered a critical injury or two.
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At Fox’s upfronts yesterday, they named 3 of the CFB games they’ll have this season:
MI @ OSU
UT vs OU
MI @ MSU (could be up against MLB playoffs)
See Matt Sarz’s Twitter account (@ mattsarz) for more discussion.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/05/16/alabama-louisville-to-kickoff-abcs-saturday-night-football/34977531/
ABC announced some of their early season night games.
Sat. 9/1 – AL vs UL
Sun. 9/2 – Miami vs LSU
Sat. 9/8 – PSU @ Pitt
Sat. 9/15 – OSU @ TCU
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https://frshoopz.com/cbb/rothstein-matchups-set-for-2018-gavitt-games/
The Gavitt Games lineup is out. A couple of the games sound pretty good.
Michigan at Villanova
Wisconsin at Xavier
Georgetown at Illinois
Ohio State at Creighton
St. John’s at Rutgers
Seton Hall at Nebraska
Marquette at Indiana
Penn State at DePaul
Providence and Butler are the two Big East teams not involved in the 2018 Gavitt Games, while Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern, and Minnesota are the six Big Ten teams that will not participate.
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/04/16/World-Congress-of-Sports/Media.aspx
A month ago, John Ourand wrote this piece in anticipation of the Supreme Court’s decision on gambling. It looks at the potential changes coming to programming due to the decision.
Most media executives contacted for this story believe that if gambling laws become more relaxed, gambling segments will appear more frequently. But they do not see big changes in the way TV channels program their schedule. Linear television audiences are too big to allow niche programming, such as gambling and fantasy, to take over their schedules.
Rather, they predict that the biggest changes will be seen on digital platforms. Every source contacted for this story pointed to Brent Musburger’s recently launched Vegas Stats and Information Network as an example of what the future could look like if gambling becomes more permissive — a niche digital platform focused on betting lines.
“It’s all about the interactivity piece,” said Daniel Cohen, senior vice president of Octagon and head of its global media rights consultancy arm. “The second screen is going to offer a new way to watch TV programming that runs in real time with the linear broadcast from that broadcaster. In-game betting is going to be huge.”
…
Zach Leonsis, senior vice president of strategic initiatives for Monumental Sports Network, said he expects 75 percent of gambling to occur on digital and mobile devices.
“Real time is one of the most exciting opportunities here,” he said. “That’s where I see interactivity in digital channels … I see us taking advantage of the inherent touchability that iPhones and Android devices give us. You can’t do that on linear.”
…
When it comes to figuring out how much emphasis networks should place on gambling should it become legalized, one network executive said TV networks will take the lead from their league partners. If a league, like the NBA, embraces wagering, networks will have more leeway to roll out gambling-related programming. If a league does not embrace wagering, networks most likely would respect those wishes, the executive said.
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https://www.si.com/more-sports/2018/supreme-court-sports-betting-decision-legal-state-legislation-update
I find it interesting which states seem most likely to allow gambling in the near future. The B10 East footprint looks like a stronghold for betting. If the conferences/schools find a way to make money off of it (and they will – perhaps through official betting sites where a % goes to the school and counts as a donation), let’s see how long the SEC holds out.
States considered likely to allow it within 2 years: NJ, PA, OH, MI, IN, DE, WV, VA, …
Within 5 years: MD, IL, IA, NY, KY, MO, …
The holdouts: WI, MN, NE, SD, DC, FL, GA, SC, AL, TN, AR, TX, NM, UT, OR, NH, RI, AL, HI
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NJ expects that it will have operational sports betting at a racetrack, Monmouth Park, by Memorial Day. The reason is that NJ was ready to go a couple of years ago, until stopped by a court.
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The P12 crossover scheduling for the next 8 year cycle (2019-2026).
Let’s take Arizona as an example. The first line reads as follows:
2019-20: Oregon State (home/away), Washington (home/away), Stanford (away/home), Oregon (away/home)
The Wildcats play OSU at home in ’19 and on the road in ’20; same with Washington. Meanwhile, the Wildcats face Stanford on the road in ’19 and at home in ’20; same with Oregon.
He has all 12 schools listed but I’m not going to paste it here.
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Syracuse University is updating the Carrier Dome with a permanent roof and air conditioning (finally!). The project should be complete by 2022, and none of the dome’s five SU tenants (football, men’s and women’s basketball, men’s and women’s lacrosse) will need to vacate:
http://www.syracuse.com/orangesports/index.ssf/2018/05/syracuse_details_118_million_in_carrier_dome_renovations_including_permanent_roo.html
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Michigan State settles with Nassar victims for $500 million. Make the Penn State settlement look like pennies. Michigan legislators have said that it cannot be paid out of state funds. How much damage will this do to MSU? https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/05/16/michigan-state-larry-nassar-victims/615077002/
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Your article gives some insight on MSU’s finances.
Interim President John Engler has long said the costs will be covered by tuition and state aid. Lawmakers have said no state aid should be used.
MSU brought in $859 million in tuition revenue in 2016-17, according to its audited financial statements. That’s 29% of its total revenue of $2.9 billion. If MSU’s reputation has suffered from the scandal, it could see a drop in the number of students enrolling, which could lower that income.
On the other side of the ledger, the university has $1.1 billion in outstanding debt. Ashley Ramchandani, a credit analyst with S&P Global Ratings, said it considers MSU to be in good shape financially with debt and could likely add some if needed.
MSU also ended the last fiscal year with $1.1 billion in unrestricted net assets. That’s money that isn’t legally contracted to a certain project, but often is set aside for particular projects.
…
The two biggest chunks of what MSU has set aside are its unrestricted net assets for infrastructure ($557 million) and programs ($400 million).
Earlier this month, Moody’s Investor’s Service lowered the school’s rating, meaning MSU will pay higher interest rates if it borrows money. The rating drops MSU to Aa2 from Aa1, affecting approximately $975 million of rated debt.
And S&P Global Ratings, despite noting that MSU likely can take on more debt, also has lowered its outlook on the university to negative, in response to pending investigations into MSU, along with lots of turnover in senior leadership.
I think MSU can afford the $500M fairly easily. They can take on debt to be repaid via tuition hikes. They can also delay some construction or other major projects. I don’t think their enrollment will take a big hit over the long term and that’s key.
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I don’t think you and the other analysts understand how tightly public universities are budgeted. Nor how little flexibility (essentially none) there is in the allocation of existing funds. That $1.1 B in “unrestricted” funds is a fantasy. Every penny has been dedicated to something.
This agreement is a financial disaster. There is no school in the country, public or private, including Harvard, that can easily manage this settlement. There will have to be major restructuring of all sorts of activities, including athletics, academic programs, financial aid, building and grounds maintenance, tuition and fees, faculty numbers and salaries, coaches numbers and salaries, the loss of ability to recruit top faculty and coaches…
MSU will be a crippled university for decades. There will be no new academic or athletic programs (some will shut down), no new investments in anything, no ability to adapt to changing times, no ability to compete for new research centers or institutes. They will not be able to adequately maintain the existing plant, and deferred maintenance will be the order of the day.
Let’s hope there’s jail time for all those administrators and coaches who ignored and/or covered up the abuses.
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bob sykes,
“I don’t think you and the other analysts understand how tightly public universities are budgeted. Nor how little flexibility (essentially none) there is in the allocation of existing funds. That $1.1 B in “unrestricted” funds is a fantasy. Every penny has been dedicated to something.”
You perhaps missed that I indicated they could take on debt to cover it and pay it off via tuition/fee hikes. They could also delay capital projects, privatize some things, sell naming rights, sell land and a myriad of other things to raise more money or cut costs. Schools spend every penny they have but that doesn’t mean that all their expenses are truly necessary.
MSU’s 5-year plan calls for $250M in new building construction plus about $500M in renovations. Some of that may need to be delayed. And maybe the AD should be asked to give several million per year to the school since this was partially their mess. Maybe they’ll have to spend some of their endowment. Maybe they’ll have to re-allocate some of those dedicated funds. Maybe they should do a fundraising campaign. The last one for OSU raised over $3B in 7 years. The point is that they can easily manage this, it’s just going to sting. It’s not like asking Lake Superior State to pay $500M.
“This agreement is a financial disaster.”
No, fighting every allegation in court and then paying legal fees on top of settlements would be a disaster. MSU is getting off cheap this way.
“There is no school in the country, public or private, including Harvard, that can easily manage this settlement.”
Harvard has an endowment of almost $40B and last year was a “bad” year with returns of 8.1% ($3B). They would laugh at the idea that paying $500M is a struggle.
“There will have to be major restructuring of all sorts of activities, including athletics, academic programs, financial aid, building and grounds maintenance, tuition and fees, faculty numbers and salaries, coaches numbers and salaries, the loss of ability to recruit top faculty and coaches…”
Some of that, sure, maybe all. I consider all of that easy to handle. MSU has the money, it just has to change how it spends it. And since they can take on debt as well as run giant fundraising campaigns, I don’t feel too bad for them.
“MSU will be a crippled university for decades.”
Wanna bet?
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Also, don’t forget that MSU has insurance plus some reserves set aside for unforeseen expenses. They also should’ve been setting aside money from the moment these allegations started to come out. That means they’ve had time to plan for this. I’m sure they’re disappointed that the state won’t cover any of it directly, but that could change after an election.
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https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/05/16/msu-nassar-tuition-michigan-state/615966002/
A look at how MSU will pay for it.
That’s a problem the university is currently working on, MSU spokeswoman Emily Guerrant told the Free Press.
Here are some ways it could go:
• Hike tuition. University interim President John Engler has been saying for a couple of months that tuition dollars probably will be used to cover the cost of any settlement. However, state lawmakers have expressed displeasure with any plan that would hike tuition above a 3.8% cap. Michigan State brought in $859 million in tuition revenue in 2016-17, according to its audited financial statements. That’s 29% of its total revenue of $2.9 billion.
• Hike tuition for graduate and out-of-state students. One way around the tuition cap is hiking tuition by a massive amount on out-of-state and graduate students.
• Get more money from the state. Lawmakers have expressed displeasure with this plan.
• Dip into its reserves. Michigan State ended the last fiscal year with $1.1 billion in unrestricted net assets. That’s money that isn’t legally contracted to a certain project, but often is set aside for particular projects. It’s like a family’s savings account where money is set aside for a new car, a new roof for the house and other projects. It can be switched to something else, or to cover an emergency, but that means those initial projects can’t be covered. The two biggest chunks of what Michigan State has set aside are its unrestricted net assets for infrastructure ($557 million) and programs ($400 million).
• Borrow the money. …
• Go after insurance. …
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/blue-bloods-alabama-texas-announce-future-home-and-home-series/
AL and Texas have announced a home and home series in 2022-23. UT was supposed to play OSU those 2 years, but both teams agreed to push those games back to 2025-26. OSU already had ND scheduled for 2022-23 so they didn’t need another headline home and home then. 2025 OSU has UW and UT but 2026 OSU only has BC and UT.
This is the second major home and home series AL has lined up lately (ND in 2028-29). Is there a change in thinking in Tuscaloosa? Perhaps they’ve decided to mix in the occasional home and home with all their neutral site games to give fans some better home games.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/cracks-are-forming-in-the-pac-12-will-they-be-patched-before-its-too-late/
Dennis Dodd on problems in the P12.
Of course, the Pac-12 spun that $509 million payout as the largest in its history. And while that’s true, it’s not how Arizona State athletic director Ray Anderson saw it.
“The gap between us and the other [leagues] continues to grow,” he said. “We’ll be competitively disadvantaged even moreso. … That’s real money in terms of being able to compete, support facilities, support coaches and support programs.”
The sky is not falling out West but cracks are beginning to appear in a once-solid foundation. First, there are those vocal critics. [Cal chancellor] Christ, Anderson and new Washington State president Kirk Schulz have weighed in.
“This is a concern of the Pac-12 presidents, and I can tell you it’s a large discussion point with meetings with the commissioner at every single meeting,” Schulz said. “… The Pac-12 schools have got to be competitive with the ACC, the SEC and the Big Ten and Big 12, and we’re falling behind.”
…
“Our schools have been great about boxing above their weight level, historically,” Scott said this month in a statement that resonated around the league. “Our schools do perhaps more with less.”
Yikes. When is the last time you heard Greg Sankey say something like that about the SEC?
“I think these things are somewhat cyclical and have blips,” Scott said.
Fashion is cyclical. The seasons are cyclical. Championships are forever, and right now, the Pac-12 has a perception problem.
It would be nice to get out in front of something.
…
“The Pac-12 needs to do a better job in being cohesive with their messaging,” Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt said.
Klatt accurately pointed out that Pac-12 champion USC was dismissed out of hand in the discourse about the playoff despite an 11-2 regular-season record.
“When your premier brand [USC] has a legitimate argument to be in the discussion for the playoff and is a non-factor … that is a conference problem,” Klatt added.
Klatt also noted, again accurately, that USC played 12 consecutive weeks with no byes. The last 11 of those games were against Power Five opponents.
Alabama did not win its conference, played only eight Power Five opponents and enjoyed two byes. And yet, the Tide got to the playoff.
“That’s absurd,” Klatt said. “That’s not even in the same hemisphere as the same difficulty.”
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Former SEC commissioner Mike Slive passed away today.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_ee08f210-5959-11e8-8048-b70dfe3bdda7.html
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/05/17/ncaa-will-host-championships-states-permit-sports-betting
The first change from the NCAA. States with sports gambling will now be allowed to host NCAA championship events.
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http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article211323724.html
The ACC wants to expand the tourney to 72 teams by adding a second set of First Four games. That means 4 more at-large slots and 4 more conference champs would face play-in games.
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The ACC is suggesting the NCAA men’s basketball tournament be enlarged fro 68 to 72 teans, with four more opening-round games at a western site.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/acc-seeks-to-expand-ncaa-tourney-by-4-teams-change-rules/2018/05/17/0ab18926-5a14-11e8-9889-07bcc1327f4b_story.html?utm_term=.67334770687a
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I know that it has been way too long, but there’s finally a new post up:
https://frankthetank.me/2018/05/18/oh-the-places-youll-go-where-big-ten-graduates-live-and-conference-realignment/
I hope that you enjoy it! Tons of interesting data there (at least IMHO). Thanks for all of your continued support!
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