Over the past several years analyzing conference realignment, observers have had access to some overarching data, such as TV ratings, athletic department revenue, population and demographic trends of states and metro areas, and the home states of current college students. However, up to this point, there has been only largely anecdotal and/or unreliable data on a critical piece of the conference realignment puzzle: the specific places where the graduates from each college actually live. As an Illinois graduate, I’ve long known anecdotally that my alma mater sends a critical mass of graduates to San Francisco and Seattle (generally for tech jobs due to the school’s strong engineering and computer science programs) while very few Illini move to Indianapolis despite it actually being geographically closer to campus than Chicago and St. Louis, but it has been difficult to find quantitative data to actually back that up.
This is where a new database from the Wall Street Journal fills the gap.* The Journal worked with a labor market research firm to identify the metro areas where the graduates of 445 colleges now live. It breaks down the most popular locations for the alumni for each school to move to in the United States. What’s also interesting is to see how certain locations are conspicuously devoid of particular schools’ alums, which we’ll discuss in a moment.
(* h/t to Aaron Renn for his original post on this Wall Street Journal database. If you’re interested in urban development and demographic issues, he is one of the best writers out there.)
For someone that’s interested in conference realignment and the college sports business in general, this database is a legitimate treasure trove. As soon as I was made aware of this Journal site, I went through each of the Big Ten schools to identify the top metro areas for each of their respective graduates. Here is the chart I put together with each of the Big Ten schools on top, applicable metropolitan areas listed on the side, and a tier number assigned whenever a market comes up as a top destination for a school’s graduates:
Key:
Tier 1 = 10% or more of a school’s graduates live in that market
Tier 2 = 5% – 9.99% of a school’s graduates live in that market
Tier 3 = 1% – 4.99% of a school’s graduates live in that market
Dash = Not a measurable destination for a school’s graduates
After creating this chart in my full dorkdom, there are some key takeaways:
FOUR CITIES ARE TOP DESTINATIONS FOR ALL BIG TEN SCHOOLS… AND NONE OF THEM ARE IN THE MIDWEST
There are only four markets in the entire country that drew more than 1% of the graduates from every single Big Ten school: New York, Los Angeles, Washington and San Francisco. None of these metro areas are located in the Midwest. Not even Chicago, the heart of the Big Ten, covered every single conference school, albeit the two sub-1% exceptions are the latest East Coast additions of Maryland and Rutgers.
To be sure, the Wall Street Journal notes that those four particular markets draw from a much wider range of colleges across the country. The sheer sizes of the New York and Los Angeles markets swallow up a lot of college grads and all four of the cities have strengths in industries that attract a national talent pool: finance in New York, entertainment in Los Angeles**, tech in San Francisco, and government and politics in Washington.
(** My favorite Big Ten-to-Hollywood story at the moment: former Penn State basketball player Joonas Suotamo is taking over the role of Chewbacca. Also, while this isn’t reflected in the domestic data, the Big Ten will have a monopoly on Americans in the British royal family after this weekend when Hollywood actress and Northwestern alum Meghan Markle marries Prince Harry.)
Still, the Big Ten’s top-to-bottom presence in those four markets is noteworthy because the only other Division I conference that has every member in those same markets is the Ivy League… and all of the Ivy League schools are in relatively close proximity to New York and Washington. Interestingly enough, all of the Ivy League schools have at least a Tier 3 presence in Chicago, too.
BIG TEN GRADS LARGELY STAY IN THEIR HOME STATES, GO TO CHICAGO, OR LEAVE THE MIDWEST COMPLETELY
Putting aside Maryland and Rutgers, Chicago is still the market with the deepest ties to the Big Ten by a large margin. It is a Tier 1 market for 6 schools, Tier 2 market for 2 schools and Tier 3 market for 4 schools. No other metro area has more than 2 Tier 1 Big Ten school connections. This isn’t exactly surprising with the annual migratory pattern of new Big Ten grads taking over apartments in Lincoln Park and Lakeview every summer (while the older Big Ten grads like me move on to places like Naperville).
Big Ten schools also send a lot of grads to the largest metro areas within their own home states. Every Big Ten school has a Tier 1 connection to at least one market located in its home state. Note that there are many metro areas where the principal city is located in one state but parts of its market are located in another state. New Jersey is a classic example where it’s largely split between the New York and Philadelphia metro areas. There are several other border areas in the Big Ten footprint such as the St. Louis metro area being partially in Illinois, the Louisville and Cincinnati metro areas crossing into Indiana, and the Omaha market including portions of Iowa. Ultimately, a state keeping a large number of grads from its flagship or other large schools isn’t exactly surprising, either. Going home will always be a strong draw.
What’s stunning to me, though, is the utter lack of Big Ten grads going anywhere else in the Midwest other than Chicago or a metro area that has a presence in their school’s state. Detroit is the 2nd largest metro area in the Midwest, relatively easy driving distance from most of the Big Ten schools, and larger than both the Seattle and Denver markets. Yet, the only 2 Big Ten schools outside of Michigan and Michigan State that have even a Tier 3 connection to Detroit are Northwestern and Purdue. Meanwhile, 10 Big Ten schools have a Tier 3 connection with Denver and 8 of the league’s colleges have a Tier 3 connection with Seattle.
In fact, the only instances where a Big Ten school has a Tier 3 connection (much less stronger ones) with a Midwestern market that isn’t either Chicago or wholly or partially located in its own state are (i) the aforementioned example of Northwestern and Purdue with Detroit, (ii) Iowa and Wisconsin with Minneapolis, (iii) Minnesota with Milwaukee and (iv) Nebraska and Iowa with Kansas City (which is a market that isn’t even in the current Big Ten footprint). That’s it… and it’s actually even worse when digging deeper because the trading of Badgers and Gophers between Milwaukee and Minneapolis comes with the caveat that there is tuition reciprocity for Wisconsin and Minnesota state residents for their respective flagship universities. In essence, a Milwaukee resident effectively treats Minnesota as an “in-state” school and it would be the same for Minneapolis residents with respect to Wisconsin. As a result, a lot of those Badgers and Gophers are just heading back to their home markets.
If Midwestern metros want to have any chance of changing their slow growth compared to the rest of the country, it’s clear that they need to do a better job of attracting the college grads that are just beyond their own home state universities. There really isn’t a great reason why Indianapolis isn’t drawing at least 1% of grads from neighboring state Big Ten schools like Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State… and Indy is one of the healthier Midwestern economies. Essentially, the Midwest metros with the exception of Chicago have completely ceded their “home field advantage” for Big Ten grads to the coasts and other high growth locations (e.g. Dallas, Atlanta and Denver).
WHAT’S BAD FOR THE MIDWEST MIGHT BE GOOD FOR THE BIG TEN
Paradoxically, the horrific inability of Midwestern markets other than Chicago to capitalize on the pipeline of Big Ten grads that are often within short driving distance is largely a good thing for the conference. The Wall Street Journal database shows that the Big Ten has the most nationalized alumni base of the Power Five conferences from top-to-bottom. As noted previously, the only other conference where every school has at least a Tier 3 connection with New York, Los Angeles, Washington and San Francisco is the Ivy League. More than half of the Big Ten has at least a Tier 3 connection with Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Denver and Seattle. There are 4 or more Big Ten schools with a Tier 3 connection with Houston, Miami and Phoenix, too.
This helps explain why the Big Ten has consistently received larger media revenue compared to its biggest football rival of the SEC. While the SEC might often receive superficially higher TV ratings compared to the Big Ten, the SEC has much more concentrated intense interest from alums that still live in its home footprint of the South. In contrast, the Big Ten might have a little bit less intense interest in its home footprint of the Midwest/Northeast (outside of places like Ohio), but that’s compensated by its very broad presence of alums in large and wealthy markets from coast-to-coast (AKA valuable viewers).
At the same time, to the extent that cable subscriber fees that have been largely based on home market interest are at risk for the Big Ten Network, the Big Ten is still in the best position of any Power Five league to take advantage of any new media rights paradigm due to its more national footprint. The New York Yankees have a combination of national and regional advantages that made them the wealthiest team in the radio era, over-the-air TV era, and cable TV era… and they’ll be the wealthiest team in the over-the-top streaming era or whatever else might come down the pike. I believe that the Big Ten will continue in that same type of position in the college sports space – they’re the conference that still has the strongest combination of home state passion with a national fan base.
DEMOGRAPHICS AND CONFERENCE REALIGNMENT
Let’s get back to the four cities that have a connection with every single Big Ten school: New York, Los Angeles, Washington and San Francisco. If anyone wants to wonder why the Big Ten added Maryland and Rutgers, just look at this data. The additions of those schools were not so much about Maryland and Rutgers actually delivering their respective home markets of DC and NYC, but rather bringing the Big Ten product directly to where the league’s alums now live. It’s no different than why pro sports leagues are so insistent on having franchises in places like Florida and Arizona: it’s not that they are delusional to believe that those markets will have great homegrown fan bases, but rather that they are places where transplants from New York, Chicago and Boston can directly watch their favorite teams.
The underpinnings of the bond between the Big Ten and Pac-12 beyond the Rose Bowl becomes clearer here, too. Not only are Los Angeles and San Francisco uniformly popular for Big Ten grads, but Denver, Phoenix and Seattle also have strong Big Ten connections. The proposed Big Ten-Pac-12 partnership from earlier this decade that ultimately fell apart would have fit right in line with the demographic data.
To be very clear, I don’t believe that the Big Ten is anywhere near expansion mode. We likely won’t see any real discussion of Power Five conference realignment until the current Big 12 grant of rights contract expires in 2025. That being said, the Wall Street Journal database provides a lot of fodder for which markets make the most for the Big Ten in the event that it wants to expand its footprint further along with some explanation for demonstrated interest in certain schools during recent rounds of conference realignment. The following is simply my blue-sky thinking as opposed to any evidence that there will be realignment moves in the near future.
Texas was mentioned prominently as a past Big Ten expansion target and that was a no-brainer at all levels: a top academic national brand name school with a blue blood football program that delivers a massive high growth population state is the top prize for every Power Five conference even above Notre Dame. The fact that Dallas has a Tier 3 connection with 9 existing Big Ten schools and Houston has connections with 4 conference members is just the proverbial icing on the cake. However, the value wasn’t as obvious when Georgia Tech was also identified as a Big Ten expansion target. The Big Ten graduate data partially points to why the league was interested in the Yellow Jackets: the Atlanta market is one of the most prominent destinations for conference grads with 9 Tier 3 connections.
There wasn’t much discussion about Colorado being a possible Big Ten school in the past, but Denver has Tier 3 connections with every Big Ten school except for the 4 that are closest to the East Coast. I’m not alarmist about the Pac-12’s status among the Power Five conferences (unlike some others) and I won’t subscribe to pie-in-the-sky scenarios (e.g. the Big Ten adding schools like USC and UCLA). However, I wouldn’t put it past the Big Ten to make a play for Colorado in the next decade if the Pac-12’s relatively lower revenue makes it vulnerable. Colorado is an AAU school in a major market with a critical mass of Big Ten alums and even in a state that’s contiguous with the current conference footprint (via Nebraska).***
(*** As a reminder, the Big Ten does not have a contiguous state requirement for expansion. The league will jump over states to get Texas, UNC or similar caliber schools if they ever wanted to join. That being said, geographic proximity is certainly an important factor, especially if it’s not a blue blood program.)
Kansas is also sitting there from the Big 12 as an AAU school with a blue blood basketball program and Kansas City is one of the few Midwest markets that been able to draw non-local Big Ten grads from multiple schools. I have long been on the record that the most valuable single plausible (e.g. no poaching Florida and USC) expansion scenario for the Big Ten that doesn’t involve Texas, Notre Dame and/or ACC schools is the league adding Kansas and Oklahoma. Their smaller markets on paper are countered by having national draws in basketball and football, respectively, along with deeper connections to a lot of major markets beyond their home states’ borders (such the OU presence in the Dallas market).
On the Eastern side of the Big Ten footprint, 10 of the 14 conference schools have connections with Boston. Adding a school to cover the Boston market would effectively make the Big Ten into the conference of the entire North. However, the challenge is finding an acceptable school that fits into the conference. Boston College is obviously located directly in that market, but it isn’t a great institutional fit as a private religious university (although that wouldn’t stop the Big Ten from adding Notre Dame if the Irish were willing to come). I’m not completely dismissive of a BC to the Big Ten scenario down the road since it still has great academics and a location directly in the Boston market, although it’s a stretch.
UConn is a more of an institutional fit as a flagship school, has strong connections to both New York and Boston and a top level basketball program historically. However, its largest roadblock can’t really be fixed by anything other than the passage of time: the Big Ten simply isn’t adding a school that has only been playing FBS football since 2002. In fact, that’s an underrated factor in why UConn isn’t in any Power Five conference today. All of the years that UConn played Division I-AA football might not as well exist. In the minds of the powers that be, UConn is more of newbie than a school like UCF (upgraded in 1996), and that’s a black mark in a universe where being able to say that a school has been playing at the highest level of football since the 1800s actually matters. It might sound arbitrary and unfair, but old school pedigree is simply an absolute requirement when getting to the Power Five level and dealing with very literally the snobbiest group of people on Earth AKA university presidents. Even a bad football history can be overcome if it’s at least a long football history (e.g. Rutgers).
Syracuse actually sends a similar percentage of its grads to the Boston market as UConn despite a farther distance from Upstate New York along having the largest percentage of grads of of any FBS school living in the New York City market with the exception of Rutgers. While Syracuse is a private school, it’s a very large one where it almost serves the role of a flagship-type institution for New Yorkers. As a result, it has Big Ten-like attributes in a region where Ivy League and other elite private universities have historically kept public universities in a subservient position.
To be sure, demographics are only part of what goes into the conference realignment equation. If schools are in markets that don’t necessarily have strong ties to existing Big Ten alums but are bringing in elite blue blood programs (such as Oklahoma football or Duke and/or North Carolina basketball), then those elite brand names are going to win out.
Still, it has been fascinating to go through the grad destination profiles of the Big Ten schools along with other colleges across the country. Once again, in matters more important than conference realignment, Midwestern cities in particular need to review this data and understand that they are giving up their home field advantage of nearby Big Ten grad talent to coastal cities that are providing such talent with more professional and economic opportunities. This is sobering data for every Midwest city outside of Chicago. They likely knew that this challenge was happening at some level, but the results are actually even worse than expected.
P.S. For long-time readers of this blog, I know that it has been a long hiatus. Thank you for your patience and continued support. I promise that I’ll get more posts up before the next Avengers movie comes out next summer that will inevitably undo what happened at the end of Infinity War.
Follow @frankthetank111(Image from Amazon)
FRANK THE TANK'S SLANT 
Geaux LSU Tigers!
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Go Bucks.
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You don’t mention Kentucky or Tennessee as “blue-sky” B1G possibilities for expansion despite proximity and blue-chip programs. Being too cheap to pay for WSJ access, I’m assuming there’s a data-based reason for not even mentioning them? (I note Nashville is not on your data chart.)
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@Chris Barnett – I’d put any SEC school on the unrealistic expansion list. It would be tough to ever see the Big Ten and SEC poaching from each other – they’re generally the biggest hunters in this game.
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Besides, Kentucky probably doesn’t want to play Indiana every year…in either major sport.
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Considering the historic connections via the Rose Bowl, etc., and the mutual ideals and goals (two closest conferences in everything), this new data reinforces the desirability of some sort of enhanced Pac 12/Big 10 relationship, with much more interconference play. I would prefer that to any further Big Ten enlargement. (Purdue grad; OSU faculty)
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The problem with the B10/P12 deal was always the details.
1. It’s hard to make it work in football with 9 games in each conference plus some outside rivalries. USC and Stanford didn’t want it because of their rivalries with ND. We still play the P12 a few times per year but I don’t think you can realistically expect much more than that.
2. The same can be said for basketball as we move to 20 games and the P12 has also discussed expanding their schedule. Add in the multi-team tournament and some needed cupcake home games and you’re running out of slots. The B10 would have to drop the ACC and/or the Big East series to do it.
3. For any non-revenue sport, why fly 2000 miles for a game? It’s much cheaper to play local schools.
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As usual, your arguments are good. But the 9/20 is a recent innovation, and mutual history and the possibility of a megaconference spanning the whole continent is worth a try.
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Yes, I realize the 9/20 things are new. But the 9 game schedules in football were what basically killed the deal after it was tentatively accepted. The recent move to 20 games means it would be hard to apply it to hoops now.
I don’t disagree with you that playing the P12 more is at least worth equal consideration to expanding the B10. If there was a good way to make money off of it, both sides would agree. Perhaps they could hype it all year round as a B10/P12 competition with each sport with a point. You’d only need a few games in each sport. Or perhaps they do a Director’s Cup competition. Use the average finish for all schools in each conference since Stanford always wins the cup. I just don’t know where the revenue would come from.
Maybe they could do 2 opening week kickoff games with big brands for football and play a 4 team tournament or two in November (UCLA, AZ, IU and MSU would be good). Maybe they could get more baseball/softball games early in the season when the B10 teams all go on the road for weeks (and any other spring sports that do that).
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“I just don’t know where the revenue would come from.”
…gambling…
“How much could legalized wagering be worth to the Pac-12? The answer starts with ‘b’ and ends with ‘illions’”
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/05/17/how-much-could-legalized-wagering-be-worth-to-the-pac-12-the-answer-starts-with-b-and-ends-with-illions/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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ccrider55.
I agree that gambling may be a new and large revenue stream but it’s not dependent on the B10 and P12 playing each other more. If they can make that money with the status quo in scheduling, what is the incentive to schedule each other more?
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I have not even read your posting, but thanks for the new thread.
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Hook ’em
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Frank,
Since Rutgers and Maryland are new additions to the conference, I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that both schools have alums in Chicago that either weren’t contacted or covered in the research. Probably a research vehicle oversight, at least I hope. What the data suggests is that Chicago is carrying the midwest, which should create a different mindset for business and government leaders regarding how the city/state move forward. But that is another topic…
I wonder if this data implies a change in BTN pricing from a regional focus to a national one. Would more out of region customers become enticed to add the BTN if pricing were similar? Additionally, is this trend new, old, growing or declining? It would be great to see this chart in four years.
I hope the conference never adds Texas. I don’t think the school would make a good partner, nor do I think the school is ready to work with other blue bloods on equal footing. While Oklahoma is a blue blood football program, economically and politically speaking, they are not on equal footing with Texas.
Welcome back Frank. You should do a post that matches schools/conferences with characters in the MCU. As an example, is the Alabama football program the “Thanos” of MCU?” I think that would be fascinating…
DITB
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Informative article. Thanks Frank.
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I think this is part of the midwest being “flyover country” for many people on the coasts. The UMD and RU alumni spread up and down the eastern seaboard and to major cities out west. I think the weather scares some people off plus Chicago isn’t synonymous with a major industry in the same way that NY, DC, SF, LA and others are. In short, I’m not sure Chicago is the same national draw that those other cities are.
There’s also so many good schools around Chicago that they may not feel the need to recruit the coast as hard.
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I suspect with the Big 12 GOR expiring in 2025, we will start to hear rumblings in 2023. The Big 12 will want schools signing on to a new GOR before 2025. It’s at that time schools will have to start showing their hands so to speak. Closed door negotiations for expansion will take place in 2022 if not currently. When the BIG TV deals start to expire I’m sure they will want to use any new schools to increase fees. Just some thoughts.
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You’re correct that the movement will come around 2023. That’s when the B10’s current tier 1 deals expire, so they’d prefer to announce new members before signing yet another new deal. It’s also when the B12 will be starting to talk informally with bidders. They’ll want to lock down their membership before having formal discussions. It’ll be interesting to see if any talk of a B12N starts to come out again around then.
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Thanks for the data, Frank! Anecdotally, I thought there were a lot of other Michigan alumni in the Houston-area, and this suggests Houston draws a reasonable amount of alumni. One factor I’ll be curious about in the next round of possible realignment is the relative importance of internet streaming services weighed against “traditional” cable and satellite offerings. The recent Nielsen ratings suggest the big Texas markets are gaining in the traditional rankings, and I suspect that’s because, in part, cord-cutters who might solely use streaming services are more prevalent in the Bay Area and other West Coast markets.
Click to access 2017-18%20TV%20DMA%20Ranks.pdf
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Recently Nielsen started accounting for streaming in their ratings. They’re still a pretty small number for now (~2.5M streaming-only households) but growing, obviously.
The bigger impact of OTT may be in who bids for tier 1 deals going forward. Also in which games the conference networks keep for themselves. As the numbers of streamers grows, there must be a point where the B10 wants them to stream BTN2Go rather then ESPN or FS1. Do you make BTN a bigger player in game selection or keep giving them the dregs?
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The darn WSJ site won’t let me access the data without a subscription. Oh well, there’s no more than thirty or so Rice grads in any city outside Houston. So who cares.
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@loki_the_bubba – Rice actually looks a lot like the Big Ten schools and other top private universities: Tier 1 in its hometown (Houston), Tier 3 in other major markets in its home state (Dallas, Austin and San Antonio), and also Tier 3 in the same major coastal and interior markets that are popular with Big Ten schools (NYC, LA, Chicago, Boston, SF, DC, Seattle, Denver and Atlanta).
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Thanks Frank. I would have guess that’s the case. But then less than 5% of a graduating class of 800 is just about 30 anyway.
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loki – I signed up for a promotional subscription of $1 for 2 months.
Frank – I’ll drill down on the SEC schools over the next few days.
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Here are the cities that show up the most for SEC schools:
14 – Washington DC
13 – NYC and Atlanta
12 – Dallas
11 – Houston
10 – L.A.
8 – Chicago
7 – Nashville
6 – Charlotte
5 – Memphis & San Francisco
Atlanta is the most popular place to live for Georgia (42%) and Auburn (14.5%) grads.
Nashville is the most popular place to live for Vandy (23%) and Tennessee (14.1%) grads.
Other #1 cities by school are:
Houston – A&M (25.1%)
St. Louis – Mizzou (23%)
Birmingham – Alabama (19.8%)
Memphis – Ole Miss (14.4%)
Jackson, MS – Miss State (14.4%)
Miami – Florida (13.7%)
New Orleans – LSU (13.6%)
Louisville – Kentucky (12.4%)
Little Rock – Arkansas (10.9%)
Charlotte – South Carolina (7.7%)
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Houston is Tier 0 for Aggies.
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Go B1G Red!
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Try again. And thanks Frank!
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Former Buckeye backup QB is now a Tiger.
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_6945d2be-57ce-11e8-832a-df06f78e3cbf.html
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Did you guys really need him? From what I’ve read, you’ve already got several decent options although none with experience. It seems like there is a decent chance he ends up as a backup for you.
It seemed like an odd choice by him when he would’ve been the clear starter at his other choice (UC).
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How about the other direction? How many alums does a school like Colorado have in B1G footprint cities like Chicago, Detroit, Washington, New York, etc.?
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Hi Frank, great research and conclusions! I’m wondering if you could reserve the table and list graduates from each School as a percentage of population. Right now the data is heavily biased towards large metros.
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No real surprise on the Big Ten vis-a-vis the Ivy League. Traditionally, a majority of Ivy presidents previously served at B1G institutions.
Glad you’re back.
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That sounds interesting, but I don’t have WSJ access so I’ll rely on the article you linked plus your commentary.
Some relevant notes from the linked article:
The Big East, Ivy League, Pac-12, Big-12, ACC, and Big Ten are all over 70% in sending college grads to major metro areas (but see below for caveats).
…
Alas, the Journal selected an unfortunate definition of major metro. They define them as the top 55 metro areas, plus the largest metro in the state, plus the largest metro in any state without one in the top 55, excluding Alaska. I don’t know anyone else slicing data this way. A more typical method would be to look at metro areas with more than a million people, of which there are 53. There are some clear midsized and lower tier cities below that on the Journal’s list, so the midsize city advocates are also going to claim this data for themselves. I can understand why they would want to include every state, but this definition of major metro raises questions about analysis based on it. I would like to see a re-slice, or better yet another field in their interactive tool to allow readers to set threshold sizes.
I’m also not quite sure what the graphs for schools mean. They are labeled as “Percentage of alumni in each metro area.” The top bucket is greater than 50%, yet some schools (e.g., Wisconsin) have multiple cities in that category.
I assume they mean the percentage of living alumni although I don’t know how accurate that data really is. It seems like some sort of normalization process to account for population would make this analysis even more useful. Of course NYC has a lot of alumni from all the schools. Metro NYC has 20.3M people (6.2% of the US population). I’d also like to see distance factored into this. Looking at the percentage of in-state students also seems reasonable.
Some data from OSU:
https://www.osu.edu/highpoints/alumni/
Currently, there are nearly 500,000 living Ohio State graduates worldwide and more than 285,000 graduates of Ohio State living in Ohio.
Outside Ohio, the top five regions for Ohio State alumni population are: Washington, D.C./northern Virginia (9,388); New York City (9,123); Chicago (8,582); eastern Texas, including Dallas, Austin, and Houston (7,940); and Los Angeles (6,819).
That puts DC at just under 2% while 57% stay in Ohio. Your chart shows only Columbus with over 10% of OSU’s alumni while Cleveland has 5-10% and Cincinnati has 1-5%.
Columbus: >50,000
Cleveland: 25,000-50,000
Cincinnati: 5,000-25,000
One thing that might impact this analysis is considering the semi-rural nature of the midwest. The northeast and west have a considerably larger percentage of their populations in urban areas. You may note that the SEC was the only P5 conference not to have 70% of its alumni in major metro areas. The rural south is part of that.
Now that I’m done nitpicking what they didn’t do, I’ll talk about what they did.
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Just for a reference point, the 53 metro areas of 1M+ people account for over 55% of the US population.
I think the data for Chicago shows that while large, it is still a very midwestern big city. Distance from Chicago is a major factor in who moves there. OSU has more alumni in NYC and DC than Chicago, for example. This is why the other major cities in the midwest lack more B10 alumni. We send a few everywhere but the cities aren’t big enough or powerful enough (NYC, DC, SF for tech, etc) to be a huge attraction outside of their states.
“If Midwestern metros want to have any chance of changing their slow growth compared to the rest of the country, it’s clear that they need to do a better job of attracting the college grads that are just beyond their own home state universities. There really isn’t a great reason why Indianapolis isn’t drawing at least 1% of grads from neighboring state Big Ten schools like Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State… and Indy is one of the healthier Midwestern economies. Essentially, the Midwest metros with the exception of Chicago have completely ceded their “home field advantage” for Big Ten grads to the coasts and other high growth locations (e.g. Dallas, Atlanta and Denver).”
1. Are they not attracting any outsiders or are they just not getting other B10 schools’ alumni?
2. Recruiting more out of state students will lead to losing many students to the coasts.
3. All of the B10 schools are so good, why make an effort to get people from the other ones if the in-state people can fill your jobs just fine?
4. People go where the jobs are. For the most part, that’s less in the midwest than it used to be. 5. People don’t like the winter. Many of these alumni are retired and have sought warmer climes.
Like you say, our nationalized alumni base is a strength for the conference. It also helps the schools get out of state students.
I don’t think the eastern alumni drove the B10 to head east nearly as much as the larger demographic trends (growing states to provide future students = $$$) and TV markets ($$$). They did want to capitalize on our eastern alumni by pushing hard in the region after they chose to expand (2nd HQ in NYC, playing in MSG, etc) but I don’t see them chasing the alumni in other regions. The plains schools didn’t have the numbers on their side.
I will point out the Colorado will never be part of the B10. I don’t care how many B10 alumni live in Denver and neither does CU, because most of CU’s alumni live in CA. That’s why they went to the P12 and that’s why they’ll stay there. They are a great example on a smaller scale of what you’re talking about the B10 potentially doing (chasing their alumni).
As for Boston, I just don’t see it. The ACC has the B10 blocked off. BC is a much better fit in the ACC. SU and UConn lack the academics to be main targets. I don’t think either really wants into the B10 (of course UConn would take it over the AAC). Unless the ACCN greatly disappoints, I think the ACC schools are happy where they are.
The B12 has stayed ahead of the P12 and ACC financially so they may be content to extend their GoR in a few years. If not, that is the B10 only viable avenue for expansion anytime soon.
B10’s top choices (if available):
1. UT and OU (if UT comes, OU will be willing to follow)
2. OU and KU (KU wanted in before, I’m still not 100% sure OU would be accepted withuot UT)
3. Nothing else
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What Brian said.
(Saves typing)
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Not to mention the problem of having members in three time zones (which the Pac would’ve put up with if it had successfully wooed Texas and/or Oklahoma, but that’s it).
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I think it’s relevant to link this article from 2016 that Frank brought up in his previous post. It details the migration of public college students between states.
Students leave behind state financial aid, incur added transportation costs and pay ever-higher out-of-state rates set by underfunded universities. Why do they go?
Some yearn for independence or fun (ski Colorado! Vermont!) or are lured by merit aid (the University of Alabama, Ohio State, University of South Carolina). They may have been shut out of their own flagships (California, Texas, Illinois) or are taking advantage of reciprocity agreements (Midwest Student Exchange Program), which allow neighbors to pay reduced or in-state tuition.
Thomas G. Mortenson, senior scholar at the Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education, offers another explanation. “The surge in emigrants,” he says, “bespeaks troubles in the public four-year institutions in the home states of these residents.”
As expected, populous states like CA and TX export a lot of students. So does NJ which has a high population density. Others like MN are more surprising. The article has the numbers for every state. Remember, this only counts public schools. That hurts the northeast where private schools are often king, but that should also reduce the total number per capita from those states.
I’m using the 2010 census to normalize below.
CA: +4681, -17196 -> -12,515 net (-336 per 1M residents); sends the most to AZ, gets the most from WA
TX: +2750, -11179 -> -8429 (-335); to OK, from CA
Big Ten footprint:
NE: +1581, -1169 -> +412 (+226); to MO, from IA
MN: +3567, -9025 -> -5458 (-1029); to and from WI
IA: +4226, -1683 -> +2543 (+835); to SD, from IL
WI: +5957, -3795 -> +2162 (+380); to and from MN
IL: +2117, -16461 -> -14344 (-1118); to and from MO
IN: +6509, -2477 -> +4032 (+622); to KY, from IL
MI: +5831, -3112 -> +2719 (+275); to OH, from IL
OH: +7065, -5609 -> +1456 (+126); to KY, from MI
PA: +8751, -6995 -> +1756 (+138); to OH, from NJ
NJ: +914, -11813 -> -10899 (-1240); to PA, from NY
MD: +4361, -6662 -> -2301 (-399); to VA, from NJ
Total: -17922
Most of the students are only moving regionally, so the losses for the B10 overall aren’t large except for MN -> ND, IL -> MO and OH -> KY.
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MD: to VA, from NJ.
When I attended Maryland in the mid-’70s, the running gag on campus was that the school soon would be renamed “Rutgers-College Park.”
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https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/news/gender-equality-fau-gave-feds-false-numbers-ranked-near-bottom/r1HcYrXaoDkiq5DbW8woOI/
They probably aren’t the only school doing it, but FAU was caught by the local newspaper falsifying their Title IX data to the feds. FAU claims it was a clerical error and perhaps it was.
In 2016, women represented more than half of the Boca Raton school’s enrollment but only 31 percent of its athletes. The percentage was the lowest of all 127 schools participating in the highest level of college sports.
Just one year later, FAU claimed it had erased its female participation gap. It told the U.S. Department of Education in 2017 that 51 percent of its athletes were women.
…
FAU reported it had more than doubled the number of athletes on its women’s track team from the previous year, but the team’s own website shows that was far from the case. The staggering numbers: FAU reported having 98 women’s track athletes. The roster showed no more than 43, and the team photo showed 38.
The 98 women, FAU claimed, occupied 222 roster spots on its cross country, indoor track and outdoor track teams, more than any women’s track program among the 127 major sports schools. The number boosted a key measure used to determine whether schools are complying with sex-based discrimination laws.
…
Metcalf pointed out FAU’s female athletes historically have gotten more than their fair share of scholarship money. Until the erroneous statistic skewed the numbers last year, FAU reported giving women a higher percentage of athletic scholarship dollars than the percentage of athletes they represented.
But even after subtracting the 55 women unaccounted for on FAU’s report, the school’s numbers indicate it disproportionately gave athletic scholarship dollars to men last year, violating federal law.
Correcting for the exaggerated track team numbers, no more than 46 percent of FAU athletes in 2017 were women, The Palm Beach Post calculated, but only 36 cents of every scholarship dollar went to female athletes.
…
Without providing details, FAU said it would issue revised numbers to Education officials claiming that the correct percentage of female athletes is 43 and that the school actually handed out 45 percent of its sports scholarship dollars to women, not 36 percent. It did not explain how it had gotten the scholarship number wrong.
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Cut some mens’ scholarships or eliminate a mens’ sport. That will solve the problem.
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Yes, it’s easy enough to fix in theory. Being FBS requires 16 varsity sports including football, 6 men’s or coed sports and 8 women’s sports. They must provide at least 200 scholarships including at least 77 in football. FAU has 18 teams (8M, 10W) so they can drop up to 2 men’s teams. FAU has 41% female athletes receiving 46% of the scholarship money and 43% of the opportunities but the school is 54% female (could be okay by Title IX if there is no unmet demand).
The real question is how many schools are cheating at this since many schools don’t meet the Title IX. They can get exemptions for making progress. How much of that progress is real and how many years do they get to reach compliance? Especially for P5 schools, there is no excuse not to truly satisfy Title IX.
Both the Department of Education and the NCAA annually collect data from schools that help indicate whether they meet Title IX requirements, but those organizations don’t always use it. Sometimes, the department uses data to initiate a compliance review of a school, but mostly its enforcement efforts stem from individual complaints, of which it receives thousands per year. Title IX compliance is not one of the NCAA’s prerequisites for competition.
“Schools have had 45 years to get it right and to make sure they’re treating their female students equally, and too many are still out of compliance,” Chaudhry said. “The reality is we’re seeing huge gaps at so many schools that I think many schools have just not been doing their job.”
…
Pough said although Title IX is great for women of all sports, she sympathized with some men who she feels are shortchanged. Whereas schools tend to distribute scholarship money evenly among women’s teams, the majority of scholarships on the men’s side go to football and basketball players.
For example, while women’s tennis players at FAU shared the equivalent of eight full-rides, men’s tennis players shared less than three. Women’s soccer players split the equivalent of about 16 full-rides, but men’s soccer players split just four.
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When women’s soccer has the equivalent of 8 full rides and men’s split four, eliminate a couple more men’s and soccer at FAU can essentially be a full varsity sport with no almost no scholies. Works for everyone, except may the men’s soccer players, but they are a casualty of Title IX.
Years ago (at least 10) Rutgers was under major Title IX pressure. They dropped men’s varsity tennis, crew, and something else. What was interesting was that tennis alumni and other donors offered to step up and pay all mens’s tennis expenses, but RU refused.
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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2018/05/19/woodson-um-not-emphasizing-ohio-state-game-enough/35133351/
[Charles Woodson] said Saturday he feels the game hasn’t been emphasized enough by Michigan.
“To be quite honest I really feel like over the years, in recent years, there hasn’t been the emphasis that I’m used to being put on that game,” Woodson said.
“Every game has been out on the same level of that game and that’s not the way we were brought up, that’s not the way we were raised around here. And we had no shame in saying it.”
I use this as an entry point to ask a bigger question. I think we all agree a team can focus too little on a rivalry game. If the other team puts a lot more emphasis on it, you can end up losing a lot of games (see John Cooper at OSU).
But is the opposite true as well? Can teams focus too much on a rivalry game? Many claim OSU and UM did just that during the Ten Year War (1969-1978), leading to a lot of poor Rose Bowl performances because the teams were emotionally spent but I can’t be objective on that subject so I’m asking others.
Does the timing of the game (season opener, mid-season, season finale) make a difference? I could see where putting too much into a mid-season game could set you up for a trap game loss afterwards. As an opener I’d think a rivalry would be a great way to motivate the players in the off season just like any other big game opener. As a season finale, I always felt like it kept players pushing through the tough weeks late in the season and the break before the bowl should be long enough to recover and refocus.
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Add
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The University of Kansas is seeking a new AD after Sheahon Zenger was dismissed today. A Final Four appearance in men’s basketball can’t mask a dreadfully bad football program. The chancellor: “Progress in key areas has been elusive.”
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article211582259.html
It should be noted that Kansas has made or is making major improvements to its football facilities, perhaps preparing for Big Ten expansion or Big 12 changes sometime next decade.
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Kansas football is clearly in a tough position. The State of Kansas does not exactly produce many players and when there is a good one, there is plenty of competition from neighboring states (and other SEC schools). There is absolutely zero tradition. Tough rebuild.
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Zero tradition? A couple of Orange Bowls, a legendary running back in Gale Sayers…Kansas football isn’t bereft of good moments.
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Yes, they had a 2007 Orange Bowl and Gale Sayers played more than 50 years ago.
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Jersey Bernie,
“Kansas football is clearly in a tough position. The State of Kansas does not exactly produce many players and when there is a good one, there is plenty of competition from neighboring states (and other SEC schools). There is absolutely zero tradition. Tough rebuild.”
Agreed, but KSU has shown a least one path to success. Use lots of JUCO players (the state of KS has 8 JUCOs with teams) to supplement in-state recruits overlooked by better programs. They can also look at programs like Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Get a few out-of-state players for speed and develop the local kids into OL, LB, etc.
KS has 2 4* players this class plus at least 7 3* players. It’s similar to what states like IA, MN and NE have. MO has a lot more and some are from the KC area. Then dip into TX for a bunch of 3* players looking to prove themselves to the TX schools that overlooked them.
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And a few John Riggins and Bobby Douglasses as well (both on the 1968/Jan. 1 ’69 Rose Bowl team).
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I think you mean the Orange Bowl. Penn St. 15 Kansas 14. Infamous 12 men on the field for Kansas. OSU beat USC 27-16 in the Rose Bowl to win the National Championship.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23565504/jury-finds-favor-ncaa-todd-mcnair-defamation-trial
The NCAA won a trial. The jury sided with them over Todd McNair from USC. McNair was seeking $27M in damages.
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https://nebraska.rivals.com/news/moos-talks-future-of-black-friday-games-and-big-ten-scheduling-philosophies
NE AD Bill Moos made some comments that have stirred up some people.
First (and non-controversial), NU will get back to playing on Black Friday in 2020 when they start a 2 year period with MN being their final game. In 2022 it will revert to beat NU vs Iowa on Black Friday. Mike Riley and Shawn Eichorst didn’t like playing on Black Friday so the games in 2018 and 2019 (vs Iowa) are set for Saturday instead.
First, Moos confirmed that NU is the process of getting a long-term agreement set for 2022 and beyond with Iowa to play on Black Friday.
In the meantime, Moos also confirmed the 2020 and 2021 games with Minnesota would be played on Black Friday, meaning the Huskers streak that dates back to 1990 of playing a nationally televised game won’t go away.
“I had somewhat of a feel for it before I got here, watching those great Nebraska-Oklahoma games the day after Thanksgiving,” Moos said on the Huskers Sports Network. “I don’t think I ever missed one, and some of them I saw in black and white TV. Then when I got here, there was a couple of things I went to right away, and one was Black Friday and to secure the rivalry with Iowa.
“I know there’s a bit of one now, but that needs to be our rivalry. It’s easy enough for our fans to go to each place, and once we came to the Big Ten, we didn’t have a traditional rival. That’s going to be in the works, and that will be scheduled long after I’m gone, and I mean on the face of the earth. But we couldn’t get the Minnesota thing turned around, but we will in 2020 and 2021 play on Black Friday, but it will be Minnesota, which is fine. Then we go into the Iowa Series from here on out.”
Moos also said you don’t mess with tradition and in his mind the positives far out away the negatives about playing on Black Friday.
“I like to color outside the lines at times, but at the end of the day I go with tradition,” Moos said. “Especially at a storied place like Nebraska. The brand is a national brand, it’s a respected brand and the things that have been done over the years traditionally need to be left alone. Some things can be changed, but not the ones that have a deep, deep traditional respect from the fan base.”
…
“It’s an exclusive window, and like you said it’s not like a typical Friday night or afternoon game because people aren’t at work,” Moos said. “They are watching our brand, and that’s a whole big key to getting ourselves back in that national picture.”
What has people talking (see Frank’s twitter) are some more cryptic comments about future B10 scheduling.
Moos hinted that the league is in strong talks about modifying the 9-game conference schedule that puts the Big Ten at a competitive disadvantage against the SEC and ACC when it comes to the College Football Playoff, New Year’s Six Bowl games and overall win-loss records which effect polls and strength of schedule.
“We might have some other schedule news here in a week or so in regards to 2022, on,” Moos said. “It was something I really became a bulldog on in regards to Nebraska and some of the traditional power programs in the Big Ten not beating each other up so bad. Because in my opinion the strength of schedule really hasn’t had much impact on who’s being selected for the College Football Playoff. We are in the process of addressing that to hopefully mine another satisfaction.”
And Moos is not saying Big Ten teams should back down from non-conference scheduling.
He feels the league needs to evaluate their approach and look at what’s best for the long-term health of the conference.
“First of all, we play nine conference games,” Moos said. “Six in the division, and then the crossovers. Like I said, in recent years those crossovers have pitted the powerhouses against each other on a consistent basis. For non-conference scheduling, it’s a fine balance. Without freshmen teams anymore, you want to hopefully have opponents that you are just primarily playing at home, so it’s a money game, you have a realistic chance of winning, and you can play a lot of players and get a look at them early in the year. I do like an intersectional game with a Power Five opponent.”
Some have interpreted that to mean that the B10 is looking at dropping back to an 8 game schedule. I don’t think that’s what he meant, though. As Frank pointed out on twitter, without the 9th game the crossovers would get too infrequent.
Current: Play 3 teams (your tier) 56% of the time and the other 4 33% (IN/PU play every one else 33%)
8 games: Play 6 teams 31% of the time and IN/PU 14% (IN/PU stay locked) or play all 7 29%
My guess is that Moos is trying to talk the B10 into dropping the parity-based scheduling. That way NE wouldn’t play OSU every year for 6 straight years, then get PSU or MI for 6 straight. I think he wants to play 6 teams 44% of the time instead (keep IN/PU locked and thus at 33% vs others).
However, I thought the B10 adopted that more for TV money than for CFP access. I wasn’t a fan of it then and aren’t now either, but it seems like TV might have some complaints. If not, I’d love to see equal play. The East schedule is hard enough without having NE or WI or IA locked in as well.
Or maybe the news is just the release of the next rotation in the parity-based scheduling. For the next 6 years NE will get someone other than OSU as their locked crossover and that would seem like good news for them.
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A Husker blogger seems to agree with me.
https://247sports.com/college/nebraska/Article/Nebraska-Huskers-athletic-director-Bill-Moos-hinted-on-Monday-at-interesting-Big-Ten-football-scheduling-news-soon-to-come-118435872
But the crossover schedules ahead for the Huskers will be plenty challenging, even if Nebraska football takes a big step forward under Scott Frost. They have Ohio State as a crossover game on the schedule every year from here until 2021, meaning they’ll have played the Buckeyes for six straight seasons. Other teams in the league have been sharing a common crossover foe during this time too. Iowa is playing Penn State every year during this stretch, and Wisconsin is playing Michigan, and Northwestern is playing Michigan State. It certainly fits into “parity-based scheduling” in theory, though Nebraska has far from delivered on its part to be remotely close to Ohio State so far.
Maybe this all plays into what Moos is getting at in his comment about being a bulldog about the “traditional power programs in the Big Ten not beating each other up so bad.” We’ll see how different the 2022 and 2023 schedules look when they come out.
Another Husker blogger took a slightly different angle on the story.
https://hailvarsity.com/s/3924/hot-reads-ad-moos-hints-changes-are-coming-to-big-ten-scheduling
What’s that mean? We might have to wait the “week or so” to find out, but Moos made it seem like any change might have to do with how crossover games are scheduled.
“In recent years those crossovers have pitted the powerhouses against each other on a consistent basis,” Moss said. Based on his previous quote, it’s clear he doesn’t see the upside to that when it comes to earning a CFP spot.
If that’s what coming, it’ll be very interesting to see the Big Ten’s messaging on that (if there’s any message at all). How does a conference say, “We’re consciously choosing to have our best programs play less often”? It makes strategic sense (and thus financial sense), but fans like big games. Would you rather see Ohio State in Memorial Stadium, even if it meant greater potential for a loss, or Rutgers and greater probability for a win?
—
This led me to look at how parity-based scheduling has worked out so far.
2016-17 (the only years it has been in use):
OSU 16-2
PSU 15-3
MI 12-6
MSU 8-10
UMD 5-13
RU 3-15
WI 16-2
NW 12-6
IA 10-8
NE 9-9
MN 7-11
IL 2-16
IN 6-12
PU 5-13
It’s a tiny sample size, but the tiers have worked out so far except for NW.
Going back to 2014:
OSU 31-3
MSU 22-12
PSU 21-13
MI 21-13
UMD 10-24
RU 7-27
WI 29-5
IA 22-12
NW 21-13
NE 17-17
MN 14-20
IL 7-27
IN 9-25
PU 7-27
As expected, MSU joins NW as outperforming their tier. Still, MSU is only 1 game up on MI and PSU. It’s only 4 years of games, but it doesn’t look too bad so far.
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https://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/tennis-men/d1
#3 OSU faces #1 WF at WF for the men’t tennis national title today at 5pm. This will be the first time since 2008 that neither USC nor UVA will win the title.
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ACTUAL EXPANSION TALK
Dennis Dodd’s article about cracks in the P12 led to online speculation about conference expansion by David Ubben. Ubben suggested that the B12 should aim to steal UA and ASU from the P12.
Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article211255024.html#storylink=cpy
This led to multiple articles on the subject.
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article211255024.html
Not very in depth (mostly an excuse to run a fan poll) but it did quote Ubben:
“Big 12 would be wise to begin cuddling up to Arizona, Arizona State with expansion in mind before leagues begin negotiating their new TV deals,” David Ubben, who will be joining The Athletic, wrote on Twitter. “The fissures in the Pac-12 have never been wider.”
https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2018/05/18/add-arizona-arizona-state-expansion-big-12-plussometimes-smaller
Also pretty short and seems against the idea.
Yes, landing two “power five” conference members would be a nice PR move by the Big 12. It would be even better if somehow the additions meant more TV money and greater stability.
There’s a lot in the way, too. Arizona and Arizona State joined the Pac-10 in 1978. For all the athletic concerns, there’s no doubt the academic types at each school like being in the same league with prestige institutions like Stanford and Cal and USC and UCLA.
…
At the conference AD and presidents meetings in late May and early June, the Big 12 is expected to announce a significant increase in revenue for 2017-18 — one that is only divided by 10 schools.
Sometimes it’s a plus to be smaller.
Jon Wilner on the subject.
The Big 12, once on life support, is looking to grow. The Pac-12, once the aggressor (recall Texas, Oklahoma and the Pac-16) is vulnerable to poaching. Might the frustrated Arizona schools be there for the taking?
If so, the Big 12 would actually become the Big 12 and add heft, a major TV market and football inventory prior to the next round of Tier I media rights negotiations in the early 2020s?
In my experience, there are two rules of realignment:
No. 1: It’s never done until it’s done … and sometimes not even then.
No. 2: Everyone has an opinion, but only a handful of voices truly matter. And those voices rarely, rarely talk.
…
From this vantage point, the situation is clear:
There is no chance … none, zero … of the Arizona schools jumping conferences prior to the next round of Tier I deals.
…
But never forget: Realignment doesn’t play out in the minutiae of year-to-year performance cycles; it unfolds on a broader canvass, one painted by university presidents, boards of regents and state politicians.
For the Arizona schools, jumping to the Big 12 doesn’t make sense.
For the Big 12, inviting the Arizona schools doesn’t make sense.
…
*** The Big 12 doesn’t make sense for Arizona and Arizona State from a competitive standpoint.
For all but a handful of football and men’s basketball teams, recruiting is geography: The program’s center of gravity is the largest talent base within the conference footprint.
For Arizona and ASU, that center is Southern California: 370 miles away, stocked with alums of both schools, culturally similar to Tempe and Tucson and loaded with talent like no place else.
But join the Big 12, and the Arizona schools would have more difficulty luring prospects out of the L.A. basin. The appeal of playing in the same conference as USC and UCLA would vanish.
…
The Pac-12 makes far more sense from an expense and logistics standpoint. Most of the Pac-12 campuses are closer to Phoenix and Tucson than any of the Big 12 counterparts.
…
*** It doesn’t make sense for Arizona and Arizona State from an academic standpoint.
Academic association might not matter to fans (or coaches), but it matters to the voices that matter … to the presidents and the regents and the pols.
Which conference offers more prestige on that front:
The Pac-12, which has four schools ranked in the U.S. News top-25 (Stanford, Cal, USC and UCLA), or the Big 12, which has none in the top 50?
And if the U.S. News ranking isn’t your thing, consider the conference ties to the prestigious (in academia) Association of American Universities:
The Pac-12 has eight members in the AAU; the Big 12 has three.
The guess here is Arizona president Robert Robbins, the founding director of the Stanford Cardiovascular Institute, and Arizona State president Michael Crow, who has spent years raising ASU’s academic profile — and is commissioner Larry Scott’s staunchest supporter — would prefer academic alignment with California’s powerhouse universities.
And so would the Arizona Board of Regents.
*** It doesn’t make sense for the Big 12.
Let’s not forget that realignment requires a willing suitor.
Assuming the Arizona schools are a package deal — Tucson is well-represented on the Board of Regents — it’s difficult to envision a scenario in which the Big 12 benefits financially by adding both schools.
…
Why would the Big 12 only add one major market (Phoenix) but split the revenue pie two additional ways?
Because neither Arizona school brings a major football brand to the table — sorry, Wildcats: basketball doesn’t matter — there’s no way the Wildcats and Sun Devils could pay for themselves and increase the size of the revenue pie for everyone else.
There’s also the matter of timing.
It makes less-than-zero sense for the Big 12 to expand during the remaining years of its current Tier I deal with ESPN because the parties removed the contractual mandate that required ESPN to increase the rights fee if the conference expanded.
…
The Hotline has long believed the best move for the Pac-12 and the Big 12 might be to combine forces and create a football scheduling alliance.
At the negotiating table, content rules:
An alliance would create premium inventory — the conferences could include a predetermined number of annual cross-over games — and it would fill every kickoff window from 12 p.m. Eastern to 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
I agree with Wilner that it won’t happen. I disagree with his argument about the timing, though. ESPN and Fox would certainly consider a pro rata increase in the contract if the B12 added 2 P5 schools, especially since it would mean they could pay the P12 less. Maybe they’d just keep the AZ schools at what they make in the P12, but it’s not like the networks would pay nothing. That was just a method to prevent G5 teams from getting a full paycheck.
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https://thespun.com/pac-12/conference-realignment-pac-12-breakup
If the P12 broke up, where would the schools end up?
It is a complete hypothetical, but we’ve seen schools pop up and change conferences out of nowhere before. On the very off-chance that the Pac-12 was to break up in a new round of conference realignment, I have a pretty good idea of where those schools may end up.
According to this blog post’s writer:
B12 – UA, ASU, CU, Utah
B10 – UW, UO, Cal, UCLA
Other 4 – No idea because the link in his article is broken
My guesses at what he said for them:
Independent – USC
MWC – WSU, OrSU, Stanford?
But I’ll play his game.
Hypothetical: The P12 breaks up due to financial disparities
Option 1 – Merger with the B12
The B12 adds some major markets and the P12 gets the TX enthusiasm for college sports. They form 1 big network with LHN staying separate but other B12 schools joining. New regional feeds are formed (ISU/KU/KSU/WV, OU/OkSU, TT/BU/TCU). 8 games in division and 1 crossover (B12 vs P12). 1 non-conference crossover (USC and Stanford exempted due to playing ND annually).
Option 2 – Lose a couple of schools
B12 – UA, ASU
P10 – the rest
Play the full round robin plus the CCG. Maybe BYU and Boise eventually get in.
Option 3 – Small takeover by the B12
B12 – UA, ASU, CU, Utah
New P10 – UW, WSU, UO, OrSU, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Boise, BYU
Play the full round robin plus the CCG.
Option 4 – Big takeover by the B12
B12 – UA, ASU, CU, Utah, USC, UCLA (or Stanford if the UC system stops UCLA)
New P10 – UW, WSU, UO, OrSU, Cal, UCLA, Boise, BYU, SDSU, UNLV
Play the full round robin plus the CCG.
Option 5 – Free for all
B12 – UA, ASU, CU, Utah, USC, UCLA (or Stanford if the UC system stops UCLA)
MWC – WSU, OrSU
B10 – UW, UO, Cal, Stanford (or UCLA as above)
ACC – none
SEC – none
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Dodd must follow the Dude…
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/05/23/playoff-semifinal-teams-history-wisconsin-nebraska-mailbag
In 4 years of the CFP, 9 schools have filled the 16 spots. Which school will become the tenth one to make the CFP?
Several schools have been close (Baylor, TCU, Iowa, Stanford, MI, PSU, WI, Auburn).
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https://public.tableau.com/profile/airwolf#!/
CFB Data Lab has done an in-depth look at recruiting, including which high schools produce the most players and how recruiting rankings correlate with team success. There are maps, charts and other graphics but no text. One map is interactive.
Here’s a decent summary: http://footballscoop.com/news/study-talent-rich-high-schools-america/
This is just a little bit of it:
High Schools Producing Most FBS Signees, 2004-17
1. St. Thomas Aquinas (Fort Lauderdale, Fla.) — 130
2. Miami Central (Fla.) — 78
3. Glenville (Cleveland, Ohio) — 74
4. DeSoto (Texas), Stephenson (Stone Mountain, Ga.) — 70
6. Cedar Hill (Texas) — 69
7. Buford (Ga.) — 63
8. Long Beach Poly (Calif.) — 61
9. Dallas Skyline (Texas) — 60
10. DeMatha Catholic (Hyattsville, Md.) — 58
A total of 18 states made the list, easily led by Florida’s 27 high schools. Texas was a comfortable second with 20, and Georgia surpassed California as the third best state for one-stop shopping.
Number of High Schools With At Least 30 FBS Signees, 2004-17
1. Florida — 27
2. Texas — 20
3. Georgia — 11
4. California — 10
5. Ohio — 7
6. Louisiana — 5
7. Arizona, Hawaii — 3
9. Alabama, Maryland, Oklahoma, Utah — 2
13. Colorado, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, Pennsylvania — 1
They also tweeted some stuff (@ redmondlonghorn).
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/5/14/17331048/most-underrated-teams-ever
The most underrated team in the preseason AP poll every season (started in 1950).
Final count: which team has been the preseason AP Poll’s most underrated team most frequently?
Auburn: 7 times
Arkansas, Houston, Iowa, Michigan State, Washington State: 3 times
Arizona State, BYU, Georgia Tech, Illinois, LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Syracuse Utah, Wyoming: 2 times
Kansas, Missouri: 1.5 times
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/05/24/wwe-tv-deal-conference-media-rights-contracts
Fox’s recent deal to get WWE rights ($200M per year for 5 years for a 2 hour show every Friday night) bodes well for CFB TV rights, especially from broadcast networks.
The rumored “rights bubble” is starting to look more like a trampoline. “The value of premium live sports is going to continue to go up,” says Chris Bevilacqua, a co-founder of CSTV (now CBS College Sports) who now works as a consultant advising leagues on media rights deals.
…
Technology is changing so fast and media companies are morphing at such a rate that it’s difficult to predict exactly what the landscape will look like when the Big Ten’s best games go on sale again after the 2022 season or when the package of SEC games that airs on CBS goes on sale after the 2024 season. The Pac-12’s current deals expire after the 2023–24 school year, and the Big 12’s current deals expire after the 2024–25 school year. But what we’re seeing now might offer a clue. Perhaps it isn’t a streaming service like Netflix or Hulu that will bankroll the next generation of college football. It could be the same channels your grandfather watched using a tiny black-and-white TV with rabbit ears.
[several bullet points supporting his stance]
This all seems to suggest that broadcast networks NBC, CBS and Fox may be even more interested in college sports than they already were. Meanwhile, ESPN will continue to attempt to dominate the sport. (And games purchased by ESPN are actually being purchased by Disney, which also runs games on ABC using ESPN personnel and branding.) The Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC could use their own cable networks as leverage as well by threatening to put the best games on those networks and demanding a higher subscription fee. (The ACC, which will launch its own network next year, won’t have this option because all its rights are owned by Disney/ESPN until 2036.) If even one streaming service such as Amazon Prime or YouTube Red decided to jump into the fray, the bidding could be frenzied. Dean Jordan, who has helped the ACC launch its channel with ESPN and who has worked with the Big Ten and College Football Playoff on media rights deals, believes the competition for rights could be fairly diverse in the next round.
“Your rights are worth whatever someone is willing to pay for them,” said Jordan, the managing executive for global sports media rights at the Wasserman Group. “Obviously with more platforms programming sports, the odds of having more than one interested in bidding on a package of content significantly increases.”
…
ABC and Fox now have the capability to show college football from noon eastern until almost midnight on fall Saturdays. Might CBS or NBC want to do the same? Or would one of the networks want to run a featured game on Friday—currently the provenance of ESPN—to compete with SmackDown on Fox? (Assuming SmackDown remains on Fox when this deal ends.) As the demand for scripted entertainment continues to shift to streaming services, this might be the best ratings play.
We keep looking to the newest technology to determine how we’ll watch college football in 10 years. But it’s quite possible the most lucrative move for the conferences and for the networks will be to present the best games using technology that has existed for almost 100 years.
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This actually is to be expected given the reversion to a 1/2 rabbit ears – 1/2 stream service viewing model that many more people are adapting to. The appetite of the old networks to procure prime time sports will increase even further as the procedural franchise shows wind down in footprint.
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On a related note, Netflix is now worth more than Disney.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/05/2018-cfn-five-year-program-analysis-apr-rankings-no-1-130/5
5 year APR rankings.
The schools have to reach a certain threshold – 930 for four years, 940 for two years – to avoid penalties, and the higher the rating, the better the chance to go bowling if a football team doesn’t get to six wins.
B10 teams are #1, 3, 4, 15, 16, 21, 24, 26, 32, 33, 45, 49, 60, 61*
* #61 is PSU and they’ve made big gains lately (954, 956, 960, 969, 980) under Franklin as they’ve moved past the sanctions. It remains to be seen if that’s permanent.
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https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2018-05-17/college-baseball-teams-home-field-advantage-have-about-70-percent
Home field advantage is huge in the college baseball postseason.
Here are some of their results:
* 37.0 percent of teams that hosted a Regional advanced to the College World Series (57 of 154 teams)
* For perspective, that means on average the 16 teams that host a Regional annually earn roughly six of the eight CWS spots, while the other 48 teams claim just two spots
* 68.8 percent of teams hosting a Regional advanced to the Super Regional round (106 of 154 teams)
* 66.2 percent of teams hosting a Super Regional advanced to the College World Series (51 of 77 teams)
* 65.2 percent of teams that had home-field advantage in both the Regional and Super Regional rounds advanced to the College World Series (45 of 69 teams)
* Eight of the last 10 national champions hosted at least one round in the NCAA tournament and five hosted both a Regional and Super Regional before winning the title.
This puts the northern schools at a huge disadvantage since they play the first month of the season on the road incurring losses and thus get seeded lower.
https://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/softball/d1/2018
I’m guessing HFA is also huge in softball. This year all 16 national seeds advanced to the super regionals which start tonight. All 5 B10 teams were eliminated in the regionals.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-basebl/big10-baseball-tournament-18.html
Meanwhile, the top 4 seeds all won their first game in the B10 baseball tournament held in Omaha (3 of the top 4 are from the B10 West but NE didn’t qualify – only the top 8 teams play). The #6 and #8 seeds were eliminated today in the losers’ bracket games so #7 over #6 is the only upset so far. The top 4 square off tonight.
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https://d1baseball.com/projections/projected-field-of-64-may-21/
Speaking of B10 baseball, the B10 is predicted to get 5 teams into the NCAA tournament again and could even get 6. Five would tie the conference record from 2015 and 2017. MN is projected to host a regional as the #13 seed.
The SEC still leads the way in overall bids with 11, while the rest of the conferences break down like this: ACC (6), American (5), Big 12 (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (4), Conference USA (2), Atlantic Sun (2) and Missouri Valley (2).
As always, this is a projection: we’re not trying to illustrate what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead, taking into account remaining schedules and our evaluations of the talent of the contenders, in addition to their bodies of work, of course.
Last Five In: Illinois, Texas A&M, LSU, Kentucky, Washington
First Five Out: Arizona, Troy, Louisiana Tech, Michigan, Louisiana
Just for context, here’s the number of CWS (final 8 teams) participants over the past 20 years by conference:
SEC – 42
ACC – 29
P12 – 26
B12 – 23
B10 – 1
Big West – 13
CUSA – 6
WAC, Ind – 5
BE – 3
AAC, American East, Big South, MAC, MWC, MVC, Sun Belt – 1
The B10’s appearance was by Indiana in 2013. The one before that was Michigan in 1984 though NE went in 2001, 2002 and 2005. The B10’s last national title was in 1966 by OSU.
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I generally appreciate d1baseball but I had to question them keeping Florida at #1 last week following four straight losses, while the two just behind won a series on road and swept. Seriously? 11 SEC teams in, projected. Ranking them by number of better losses? Maybe UF can lose a few more to help others standing while not falling…
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They do note that they are projecting the remaining schedule, so presumably they have UF winning the SEC tournament.
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Now 0-6 in last 6. Out of tournament.
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Presumably they’ll drop UF in their next projection.
Meanwhile, chalk continues to rule in the B10 as #1 MN beat #4 IL and #2 PU beat #3 MI last night. In the losers’ bracket today #3 MI faces #7 OSU (0-0 in the 3rd right now) then #4 IL faces #5 IN.
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(Banking on Tigers 😀)
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“Presumably they’ll drop UF in their next projection.“
No more projections. Isn’t selection following this weekend?
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I was assuming they’ll do a final one right before the actual selection. Most sites do that.
Also, they do daily articles that require a subscription. Their projections are free but only done weekly. I’m guessing the daily articles might indicate UF dropping.
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#7 OSU advanced to face #1 MN this morning, with OSU needing to win 2 games against MN to make the finals. Unfortunately MN won game 1 to make the finals.
#4 IL advanced to face #2 PU this afternoon, also needing 2 wins to move on.
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And #2 PU cruised past #4 IL so we’ll get a chalk finals of #1 MN vs #2 PU tomorrow afternoon.
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Another confirmation that the B10 is sticking with 9 games.
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Greg Flugaur had an interesting view on Moos’ comment on twitter.
People pointed out to him that the CCG rules would need to be changed, but that isn’t an insurmountable barrier. I don’t think that’s what the news will be, but it was an interesting leap to take.
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He did talk to his B10 source about how this would impact any expansion plans.
BTM: “If Big Ten did make a move back to 8 conference games after 2022 it would dim the prospects of expansion considerably in the next decade with one exception. The exception being a Texas & Oklahoma addition.”
…
“One of the many hurdles facing the Big Ten in luring Texas into its conference is the past mentions of Texas to Big Ten brass that Texas would need 4 OOG within a Big Ten schedule to satisfy regional needs both inside and outside University of Texas.”
…
“I haven’t heard any steam that would lead me to believe Texas has shown Big Ten any interest in last few years for Big Ten to make the move to 8 games on their behalf. So If 8 games is direction Big Ten is moving in then I would say expansion is not in their plans.”
…
“I have not heard of any Big Ten plans to move to 8 Conference games. This would be news to me. I’m more than a bit interested in this development if it rings out to be true. If true I’m surprised.”
His final conclusion:
I listened to Nebraska’s AD’s words on a podcast where he is describing Big Ten scheduling for 2022 and beyond and it sure sounds like he is talking about making sure the crossover games are balanced among Schls in a certain period of years/time.
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Now that this blog has become active again, I would like to revive something I haven’t seen discussed. A long time ago, after seeing the B1G reserve four channels, I suggested that they might be getting ready to broadcast multiple versions of the BTN and offered ideas on how they might do this. I was quickly attacked by multiple Neanderthals who found this crazy. Yet now I see that the PAC12 is running five or six versions of their network on my cable networks. I find the side issues of this somewhat interesting such as greater exposure of the non-revenue sports, possible advertising, and greater exposure. Has there been any feedback from the PAC12 on the success they are having with this or how long the BTN will continue to broadcast the identical material on multiple channels?
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SpaceTetra,
“A long time ago, after seeing the B1G reserve four channels, I suggested that they might be getting ready to broadcast multiple versions of the BTN and offered ideas on how they might do this.”
Reserved 4 channels where? They have overflow channels for when multiple football games overlap but that’s the only time they are allowed to use them. I’m not aware of any other access to multiple channels. Can you link something?
Without a link to your previous comment it’s hard to say much more in response.
“I was quickly attacked by multiple Neanderthals who found this crazy.”
Calling people names is a great way to start a conversation.
“Yet now I see that the PAC12 is running five or six versions of their network on my cable networks.”
The P12N has a national feed and 6 regional feeds (1 for each pair of neighboring schools). Many providers carry only 1 P12N channel (at least just the 1 on the basic tier). Originally they could choose the national or the regional one, but that may have changed. I know Comcast used to have the regional feed on basic and the national one on a sports tier but they swapped them a couple of years ago. They have signed some streaming deals to carry all of the channels.
However, nobody seems to consider the P12Ns a glaring success. They came up with a different model (national and regional feeds) but it hasn’t been a huge financial success. Since COmcast just dropped BTN outside of the footprint, I’m not sure now is a great time for BTN to try to add channels. I think OTT is more likely to fill that need than another channel.
“I find the side issues of this somewhat interesting such as greater exposure of the non-revenue sports, possible advertising, and greater exposure.”
The exposure of those sports is really only to friends and family of the teams. The viewership numbers (and thus advertising dollars) are practically zero. Jon Wilner had an article about it.
During the Saturdays covered in the ratings window obtained by the Hotline, there were four broadcasts of Olympic sports events on the Pac-12 Networks’ national feed.
Ratings are measured in 15-minute segments, so a four-hour football game would have 16 segments.
The four Olympic sports events in question had a total of 22 measured segments. Of those, 21 registered a zero.
That’s right: 21 of 22 registered a zero.
Technically, that zero refers to a share. But a zero share equals a zero rating.
That doesn’t mean that zero people, literally, are watching. But it means that so few people are watching, it doesn’t register with the rating service.
How many, specifically?
Based on the households involved in this particular metro market and the way shares are calculated, no more than a few hundred people could possibly have been watching any of the 21 segments that generated a zero share.
What about the single 15-minute segment that registered? It had a 0.5 share, and I can’t explain the spike.
The 15-minute segment immediately prior was a zero share, and the 15-minute segment immediately following was a zero share.
(Note: 0.5 is not the minimum share that registers. There are plenty of rated segments over the four Saturdays that have shares of 0.2 or 0.3. But for the Olympic sports, it’s all zeroes except for that single spike to 0.5.)
…
One of the industry sources I turned to for context made three points after seeing the data:
1. “An advertising model associated with Olympic sports is not viable.The ratings are non-existent. No one is watching.”
“Has there been any feedback from the PAC12 on the success they are having with this or how long the BTN will continue to broadcast the identical material on multiple channels?”
We discuss this topic all the time around here. The P12N is paying out roughly 1/4 of what BTN and SECN are paying their schools, but of course the financial model is different (the schools own all of P12N, half of BTN and none of SECN). Recent comments from some ADs and others (chancellor/president) show that there is disappointment with the current revenue stream. Nothing will change before the P12’s TV deals expire in 2024.
You’ll need to say more about the multiple channels for BTN for me to comment on that. To read more about P12N, read Jon Wilner’s articles at https://www.mercurynews.com/tag/pac-12-hotline/. He has covered that topic in depth for years.
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http://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2018/05/24/census-data-texas-growth
The latest census data on the fastest growing cities in the US show the usual trend of growth in warm weather cities with 2 major exceptions – Seattle and Columbus, OH.
The article includes an interview with an editor from The Atlantic.
On why Texas towns are at the top of the list
“Well the first thing that’s going on is a little bit of statistical trickery. And that is that when you’re looking at rate of growth from a really low base, it’s easy to grow really quickly. You know, if ‘Hobsonville’ has 10 people, and adds 10 people, it’s growing by 100 percent. If New York City adds 10 people, it’s not even growing. That’s the first thing that’s going on is still a bit of statistics.
“The second thing is that this is a continuation of something we’ve seen ever since the Great Recession ended: People have just kept up with the early 2000s migration patterns of moving to the South, moving to the West and moving to hot suburbs.”
On two cities that surprisingly made the list
“I mean there’s not a lot of surprises to me at the top of the list, except for two things: You’ve got Seattle, which is by far the fastest-growing dense urban area in the United States. And then second, Columbus, Ohio, I think is going to surprise a lot of people. A lot of people don’t realize that Columbus, Ohio, is secretly becoming the second Chicago of the Midwest. It has been growing really quickly for the last few years. And so those are really the two exceptions to this general rule of hot cities growing quickly — it’s Seattle, and it’s Columbus.”
…
On why people aren’t moving to Chicago
“Well first I should say: I love Chicago. I went to school at Northwestern. I love Chicago quite a lot. But look, it’s at the center of two not-so-great trends: The first trend is the demographic trend that I’ve already explained — people are not moving to the Midwest to the Northeast, they’re moving to the South and West. And then second, Chicago is now one of the crime capitals of the U.S. The murder rate there is rather high, and they have gang problems that the city is trying to deal with. And so you put these trends together — both the crime trend and the demographic trend — and you have Chicago falling behind places like Columbus, its neighbor, and also cities like Seattle that are competing for a lot of the same jobs.”
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http://dailybruin.com/2018/05/23/proposed-amendment-to-state-constitution-limits-uc-autonomy/
CA state legislators have proposed a constitutional amendment that would limit salaries for non-faculty (which includes coaches) to $200,000.
The proposed amendment limits nonfaculty salaries to $200,000 per year, which would affect coaches that, on some campuses, make millions of dollars, and administrators that make hundreds of thousands of dollars. The proposal also requires the UC Board of Regents to approve higher salaries in public hearings.
Under the amendment, regents’ terms would be reduced from 12 years to four years, and the UC president would lose their voting power on the Board of Regents. The UC Office of the President would also be required to report expenditure information to the regents, governor and Legislature.
The amendment requires a two-thirds vote in both the Assembly and the state Senate, followed by a majority vote by the public in a ballot measure in order to pass.
They could still play the game of having the boosters and apparel company cover most of a coach’s salary, but this would severely limit base salary. More importantly, it’ll be hard to find administrators to run Cal and UCLA thanks to the cost of living if they are truly capped at $200,000. Unless they can make them all adjunct faculty or something.
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http://www.latimes.com/opinion/editorials/la-ed-usc-president-20180523-story.html
The editorial board of the LA Times is calling for the resignation or ouster of USC’s president.
Almost a year after the shocking revelation that the dean of the medical school was doing drugs and partying with young criminals and addicts — and a week after the revelation that a gynecologist at the student health clinic had been repeatedly accused over several decades of making sexual comments and touching young patients inappropriately — it has become increasingly clear that Nikias is not the proper person to lead the university out of this mire. He has failed to respond forcefully or appropriately to these crises on his watch.
In the cases of both Carmen Puliafito, the medical school dean, and George Tyndall, the gynecologist, Nikias and top administrators had the opportunity to confront the misconduct head-on in a public and transparent fashion. They could have used these troubling cases to demonstrate their commitment to protecting students and patients. They could have sent a message that misconduct would not be tolerated.
Instead, USC leaders chose to cut secret deals to make the problem employees go away. They failed at first to report the doctors to the Medical Board of California, the agency responsible for protecting the public from bad physicians. They failed to notify past patients or the larger USC community until they were confronted by The Times. They didn’t arrange counseling for victims of the accused gynecologist until the revelations were about to come out. They did not alert law enforcement until they came under pressure. In a move that smacked of tragicomedy, the university actually replaced Puliafito with a new dean who had himself been formally disciplined some years earlier after an allegation that he sexually harassed a researcher. That was an indication of either an extraordinary failure in the vetting process or of mind-boggling tone-deafness.
In all three cases, Nikias and university leaders acknowledged the misconduct publicly only after reporters from The Times uncovered the secret deals, leading to the inevitable conclusion that damage control is USC’s top priority, not the protection of the students and patients.
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http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-max-nikias-usc-20180525-story.html
USC’s president has stepped down.
USC President C.L. Max Nikias, whose tenure was marked by a significant boost in the university’s prestige and fundraising prowess but tarnished by a series of damaging scandals, is stepping down from his post, the university’s Board of Trustees announced Friday.
The move comes after more than a week of uproar over the university’s handling of a longtime campus gynecologist accused of misconduct toward female students. More than 300 people, most of them former female patients of Dr. George Tyndall, have since come forward to USC, many with allegations of mistreatment and sexual abuse that date back to the early 1990s.
The revelations published by The Times heightened long-festering concerns about university leaders’ ethics and management style and sparked calls for Nikias to resign.
…
A prolific fundraiser during his eight years as president, Nikias pushed USC to imagine itself as an elite global research university and to dramatically expand and renovate its South Los Angeles campus. He oversaw a major construction boom that transformed parts of the campus community and extended USC’s ties to China and the Pacific Rim.
That’s a pretty quick response to the public outcry.
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Jon Wilner has an interesting idea.
The P12 is playing at least 1 Labor Day weekend neutral site game against the SEC in 2018-2020 on top of USC’s game against AL in 2016. All 4 games will be in Atlanta or Arlington.
Wilner thinks that the P12 needs to start playing a major neutral site game every Labor Day weekend, but it should be in the new stadium in Las Vegas. And it should be P12 vs B10.
What Pac-12 football needs … what it must secure in coming years … is to create a mammoth football presence in Las Vegas, starting with an annual Labor Day weekend showcase game at the Raiders’ stadium (completion date: 2020) against marquee programs in the Big Ten.
“We can do for football what we’ve done for basketball,” said Pat Christenson, the president of Las Vegas Events. “In the past, the problem was we didn’t have the facility.”
Were the Hotline named czar of Pac-12 football, the first move would be to overhaul the schedule: End the outsourcing, bring it in house, and eliminate all instances of competitive disadvantages.
Our second move? Make Vegas the conference’s home-away-from-home, to an even greater extent than it is for men’s basketball.
The Hotline has been mulling the Las Vegas concept for months, seeking out naysayers both inside the conference and within the world of college football event planning.
None exist.
“It would be great, but it’s not a Pac-12 decision,” Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens said during a conversation last month about football scheduling. “It would be great for TV. But the entities that host would have to replace the home gate.”
…
Playing a marquee opponent in Las Vegas on Labor Day weekend is only half of the Hotline’s master plan for Pac-12 football.
The other half, which has been discussed publicly with commissioner Larry Scott, is to move the conference championship game to Las Vegas — make Sin City the regular-season bookends
The Pac-12 is under contract to stage the title game in Levi’s Stadium through the 2019 season, with an option for 2020.
Beyond that?
“As we get closer,” Scott said during a press conference in December, “we’ll talk to the 49ers and Levi’s and consider all the options.”
Three facilities could be in play:
1. Levi’s
2. Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park (i.e., the new home of the Rams and Chargers)
3. Las Vegas Stadium (i.e., the new home of the Raiders)
The Pac-12 could create a neutral-site rotation for the game, or it could pick a long-term home.
…
And here’s a Hotline suggestion (free of charge):
The conference could buff up fan and media interest in the Friday night football game by staging a high-profile men’s basketball game in T-Mobile Arena on Saturday.
That component would require buy-in from the schools, because they control the non-conference schedules, but finding a blueblood opponent shouldn’t be difficult for event organizers given the potential for recruiting exposure. (Findlay Prep and Bishop Gorman are stocked with 4- and 5-star prospects.)
Heck, you could make it a doubleheader with UNLV involved.
…
The Week One showdown … a western version of the Atlanta and Arlington games … is more difficult to execute, and it’s more difficult for one reason: The money.
…
Despite all the pomp that would come from a duel with the SEC powers, that might not be the most realistic approach.
For one thing, they already have Week One options in Arlington and Atlanta, which are easy trips for their fans. For another, the SEC schools don’t have significant alumni bases in the west — at least, not like those of the Big Ten.
The way to make the Week One showcase work financially is to lean on the Big Ten and create a mini-Rose Bowl, if you will: Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State would be the top targets in a rotation, possibly with Iowa and Nebraska involved, depending on states of those programs.
…
Would the event have to involve the Big Ten? Not necessarily. Maybe you’d mix in Texas or Oklahoma, maybe you’d grab an SEC team once every four or five years. But the Big Ten would be the primary opponent.
I think both conferences could get behind something like this. It’s the B10/P12 scheduling alliance pared down to size both conferences can accept. I know the larger B10 schools haven’t been big on neutral site games for financial reasons among other things, but this is different. It gets you out west where many schools are trying to recruit and have lots of alumni and it pairs you with a conference taking equal scheduling risks. And if you only do it every few years, it’s not a burden financially.
The hardest part would be finding holes in the schedules to do it, but there are some good B10/P12 series already scheduled. OSU has a P5 opponent for every year from 2020-2027 already, but that includes Oregon in 2020-21 and UW in 2024-5. Since OSU also has Texas in 2025, I bet OSU would love to reduce the UW series to 1 game at a neutral site. They could play Oregon’s home game in LV, too. I’m sure there are other series they could tap, too.
If you want to add to that, what about getting a B10/P12 mini-tournament in LV and Indy the weekend of their CCG? 2 teams from each conference in each city.
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Hi Frank…
Could you please change my email? My new email is RUretired2018@gmail.com.
Thank you!
Mark Strobin
Sent from my iPhone
>
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I have long been on the record that the most valuable single plausible (e.g. no poaching Florida and USC) expansion scenario for the Big Ten that doesn’t involve Texas, Notre Dame and/or ACC schools is the league adding Kansas and Oklahoma.
It is probably worth noting that is also true for the SEC and the PAC as well.
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Let’s examine that from a couple of directions.
1. Assuming UT, ND and the ACC (plus the B10, P12 and SEC) are unavailable, what are the most valuable expansion options for the B10, P12 and SEC? Basically the options are AAC, MWC or independents in addition to non-UT B12 schools.
B10 options: OU, KU, UConn
OU & KU is clearly the top pair since OU’s football has so much value and KU is both a geographical bridge and a hoops king. KU also brings another AAU school. UConn’s only advantage is more east coast access. The downside is that I struggle to imagine OU & KU joining the B10 unless UT goes independent.
P12 options: Boise, BYU, UNLV, TT, OU, OkSU, KU
It would take desperation for the P12 schools to accept any of the MWC schools. TT would be a better geographical bridge to OU than KU, but the hoops brand of KU is valuable. UT would have to go independent for TT to leave the B12.
SEC options: OU, OkSU, KU, UC
The SEC doesn’t need any more football powers, especially in the West, but OU brings that plus some more Dallas access. They could use the hoops brand of KU plus that gives MO a natural rival. UC would be a direct attack on the B10 but would require the SEC to take a clearly second-tier program in the state which they don’t do.
So yes, one could argue that OU & KU is the best pair for all 3 conferences. OU & TT may be of similar value to the P12, though.
2. Do OU & KU offer sufficient value for the conferences to expand?
They may be the most valuable pair in this scenario, but is that value high enough to justify expansion?
I’ll use Frank’s valuation method from his Expansion Index (https://frankthetank.me/2009/12/27/the-big-ten-expansion-index-a-different-shade-of-orange/).
OU/KU values
Academics – 25/25 (25 max)
TV value – 20/15 (25)
Football – 30/5 (30)
Basketball – 5/10 (10)
Rivalries/fit – 3/3 (5)
Mutual interest – 3/5 (5)
Totals – 86/63
That would make KU a Contender and OU the top Contender or in the group of only real choices (with ND and UT).
These scores apply to both the B10 and SEC roughly. I’d subtract 3-5 points each for the P12 (less fit, less mutual interest).
Looking at the money they make in the B12, they should be worthy additions for any of the three. KU by itself is borderline but as a #16 (or #14) to go with OU they’re solid.
3. Which conference offers the most value to OU & KU?
Academics: 1. B10, 2. P12, 3. SEC
Money: 1. B10 & SEC, 3. P12
Geography: 1a. SEC, 1b. B10, 3. P12
Cultural fit: 1. B10 & SEC, 3. P12 (B10 is better for KU, SEC is better for OU)
Rivalries: 1. B10 & SEC, 3. P12 (B10 is better for OU, SEC is better for KU)
It’s really close between the B10 and SEC depending on which things they value more. It’s hard to see the P12 winning unless they offer concessions that the others won’t.
4. How likely is this?
I give it a very small chance. As I said above, it only makes sense if UT leaves the B12 to go independent and I don’t think independence is very likely. In addition, KU and OU would have to decide that leaving is better than staying in the B12. Maybe once the B10’s new payouts show up the money gap will be big enough to justify leaving in-state rivals and the B12, but that’s a tough decision.
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As a reminder, KU started a $300M+ renovation of all their football facilities after the season. This year they’re building an indoor practice facility. After 2018 they’ll redo their south end zone and west side of the stadium. The N and E sides will be done later. New facilities won’t fix everything, but it should help a lot in recruiting. But maybe the new AD will try to cut back on the renovations. That’s a big decision that will need to be made soon and could be huge for KU’s future in realignment.
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Let’s look at the possible outcomes:
1. OU & KU to the B10
a. 9 games = 7 in division + 2 rotating
W – OU, NE, WI, IA, MN, NW, IL, KU
E – OSU, MI, PSU, MSU, IN, PU, RU, UMD
I’d use 2 tiers for the crossover games, playing 1 team from each tier:
Tier 1 – OU, NE, WI, IA / OSU, MI, PSU, MSU
Tier 2 – MN, NW, IL, KU / IN, PU, RU, UMD
That gives everyone a big game and a lesser game in their crossovers. The down side is that you only play crossovers once every 4 years.
b. 9 games = 7 in pod-based division + 2 rotating
W = OU, NE, KU
N = WI, IA, MN, NW, IL
S = OSU, MI, MSU, IN, PU
E = PSU, RU, UMD
Swap the W and E pods every 2 years to form divisions (NW vs SE x2, NE vs SW x2, repeat). That leaves only the W/E and N/S games unplayed. The 2 rotating games cover those.
Pod of 3 – 100% x2 in pod, 50% x10 in pods of 5, 67% x3 in other pod of 3
Pod of 5 – 100% x4 in pod, 50% x6 in pods of 3, 40% x5 in other pod of 5
This keeps the outliers connected as well as keeping almost all relevant rivalries alive.
c. 9 games = 3 locked rivals + 6 rotating games (50%)
No divisions but you do need to get the CCG rules changed. This maintains the rivalries while maintaining equal play as much as possible.
2. OU & KU to the P12
a. 9 games = 6 in division + 3 rotating (games in CA locked as now)
N – UW, WSU, UO, OrSU, Cal, Stanford, KU
S – USC, UCLA, UA, ASU, CU, UU, OU
The schools all pair so well it’s hard to pick which pair to split between divisions. You might swap KU and UU. I’d lock 1 crossover rival for the CA schools (Cal/UCLA, Stanford/USC) plus OU/KU and rotate the rest. I assume OU would demand to play in Los Angeles so the blue bloods are together while the new powers are in the other division.
b. 9 games = 6 in pod-based division + 3 rotating
N = UW, WSU, UO, OrSU
S = UA, ASU, UU
E = OU, CU, KU
W = USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford
Swap the W and E pods every 2 years to form divisions (NE vs SW x2, NS vs EW x2, repeat). That leaves only the N/W and S/E games unplayed. The 3 rotating games cover those.
Pod of 3 – 100% x2 in pod, 50% x8 in pods of 4, 100% x3 in other pod of 3
Pod of 4 – 100% x3 in pod, 50% x6 in pods of 3, 75% x4 in other pod of 4
This keeps the newbies connected as well as keeping relevant rivalries alive.
c. 9 games = 3 locked rivals + 6 rotating games (60%)
No divisions but you do need to get the CCG rules changed. This maintains the rivalries while maintaining equal play as much as possible.
3. OU & KU to the SEC
a. 9 games = 7 in division + 2 rotating /
8 games = 7 in division + 1 rotating
W – OU, KU, TAMU, MO, AR, LSU, MS, MsSU
E – UF, UGA, SC, UT, VU, UK, AL, AU
The down side is that you only play crossovers once every 4 or 8 years. I don’t think even the SEC would be happy with playing teams once every 8 years. But if they would stick to 8 games that would be a big plus for attracting OU.
b. 9 games = 7 in pod-based division + 2 rotating
W = OU, KU, TAMU, MO, AR
N = UT, VU, UK, AL, AU
S = LSU, MS, MsSU
E = UF, UGA, SC
Swap the S and E pods every 2 years to form divisions (NE vs SW x2, NS vs EW x2, repeat). That leaves only the S/E and N/W games unplayed. The 2 rotating games cover those.
Pod of 3 – 100% x2 in pod, 50% x10 in pods of 5, 67% x3 in other pod of 3
Pod of 5 – 100% x4 in pod, 50% x6 in pods of 3, 40% x5 in other pod of 5
This isn’t great for rivalries. I don’t think any pod setup works well for the SEC. Again, I don’t think the SEC would settle for 8 games but if they did the numbers would drop to 33% and 20% for the the matched size pod.
c. 9 games = 3 locked rivals + 6 rotating games (50%)
No divisions but you do need to get the CCG rules changed. This maintains the rivalries while maintaining equal play as much as possible.
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Please read with open mind, out of the box thinking.
I agree with the thinking that OU & KU as expansion targets.
However the question is? WWJD? Or What Would Jim (Delany) Do?
To lay some ground work I’ve come to the conclusion that Texas brings too much baggage, that not to say the BIG wouldn’t take them if the opportunity opens up. I think the ACC schools are out. 1. They’re very parochial 2. They have their act together unlike the Big 12.
There is a lot of dissatisfaction at SC. Really upset that Rutgers, Maryland & Vanderbilt make more money than they do.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/12/11/16741832/usc-pac-12-conference-realignment-lol
If I were JD, I’d be on the phone to SC, UCLA, Cal & Stanford pitching a national coast to coast conference and the license to print money it would create.
My next call would be to South Bend saying that we have a possible agreement with said schools. If you would join, we will place you in a Western Division with them. Thus your must games with SC and Stanford would be in place leaving you with 3 OOC Games to schedule who ever you wanted.
The 20th team could be anybody, I’d pick Kansas for Culture & Academics.
Ah ACC GOR. Notre Dame signs nothing; I mean nothing that doesn’t benefit them. I’m willing to bet anything that you would find on Page 219 Paragraph 7 Subsection C ESCAPE CLAUSE. In the event of…..……(enough money buys you out of anything. It’s the American Way! LOL)
Unlikely sure, but from a strictly business perspective what would the bidding be for those rights. I’m sure ND could squeeze even more $$$ from NBC.
With 20 teams you have 4 Division of 5 teams. East Divs. A&B, West Divs C&D. Say PSU is in Div. A. They would play all the teams in their Div. (4 Games) and all the teams in Div. B (5 games) equals 9 Conference games. Next year Div. A&C play and B &D and so on like the NFL. Thus a school would play every team in the BIG every three years.
Yes the Cal. Schools don’t even like to go to Oregon but $$$ talks. As Winston Zeddmore once said, “If there’s a steady paycheck in it, I’ll believe anything.”
Yes it seems far fetched but I now believe anything is possible in this changing world.
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I stopped reading after this “The precursor to the Pac-12, the PCC, blew up in part because the California schools didn’t want to travel to Oregon State, Washington State, or Montana (oh yeah, Montana and Idaho used to be in this league)” substitution for the self immolation brought to the conference by the “power” schools.
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In a nutshell, the piece is an argument for USC to go independent. Points he makes after you stopped reading:
1. Could USC assemble a workable schedule as an independent? Almost assuredly
…
2. Could USC find a home for Olympic sports? Yeah, probably
…
3. Could USC secure access to the College Football Playoff or major bowls? That’s not immediately clear
…
4. Could USC make more money this way? That’s the big question
…
Should USC try to leave the Pac-12 now? Probably not. But I don’t think it’s crazy.
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Doug,
“Please read with open mind, out of the box thinking.”
Expansion speculation is pretty much all that way.
“To lay some ground work I’ve come to the conclusion that Texas brings too much baggage, that not to say the BIG wouldn’t take them if the opportunity opens up. I think the ACC schools are out. 1. They’re very parochial 2. They have their act together unlike the Big 12.”
The ACC Grant of Rights (incl. ND) holds until 2036, so at best they wouldn’t be available until 2034ish and the whole landscape may have changed by then.
UT comes with baggage (LHN, ego) but most kings do. Anyone would take them under the right conditions (equal footing for the B10).
“There is a lot of dissatisfaction at SC. Really upset that Rutgers, Maryland & Vanderbilt make more money than they do.”
Well, there’s dissatisfaction among the fans. I don’t know that USC is upset at all.
I read that SBN article when it came out (I think I linked here). I don’t agree with everything he has to say. One of USC’s major scheduling complaints has been fixed now. Moving to the B10 wouldn’t help with the 9 games issue. In fact it would make things worse as they’d want to keep playing the other CA schools a lot. 9 B10 games + Notre Dame + UCLA/Stanford/Cal doesn’t leave much flexibility.
“If I were JD, I’d be on the phone to SC, UCLA, Cal & Stanford pitching a national coast to coast conference and the license to print money it would create.”
I think working together would make more sense than merging. It’s much too expensive and time consuming for the players to send non-revenue sports 2000+ miles away on a regular basis.
Let’s talk just football. How do you incorporate the 4 teams in CA? Are we doing pods?
W – USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal
N – NE, IA, WI, MN
S – MI, MSU, OSU, PU, IN
E – NW, IL, PSU, RU, UMD
9 games = 8 in division + 1 crossover (some locked for rivalries)
The W and N teams would play once every 4 years, E and S once every 5 years. Who wants that?
I think you’d have to drop divisions and change the CCG rule. Even then you’d lose cohesion:
9 games = 3 locked + 6 rotating (43%)
Do you have to go to 10 games = 3 locked + 7 rotating (50%)? How does that help USC?
The other obvious question is how much more would TV pay per school.
“My next call would be to South Bend saying that we have a possible agreement with said schools. If you would join, we will place you in a Western Division with them. Thus your must games with SC and Stanford would be in place leaving you with 3 OOC Games to schedule who ever you wanted.”
First, ND is bound by their ACC deal to join the ACC or nobody until 2036. Second, ND would rather play in the east than the west. They like a national schedule and their current deal gives them that. Nothing will lead them to give that up voluntarily.
“The 20th team could be anybody, I’d pick Kansas for Culture & Academics.”
Would KU leave the B12 and all their rivals to play a bunch of new foes? I’m not sure.
“Ah ACC GOR. Notre Dame signs nothing; I mean nothing that doesn’t benefit them. I’m willing to bet anything that you would find on Page 219 Paragraph 7 Subsection C ESCAPE CLAUSE. In the event of…..……(enough money buys you out of anything. It’s the American Way! LOL)”
But the GOR does benefit them. It gives them their independence plus a home for their other sports. The money is irrelevant to them. Any contract can be escaped, but the price wouldn’t be worth it to ND.
“With 20 teams you have 4 Division of 5 teams. East Divs. A&B, West Divs C&D. Say PSU is in Div. A. They would play all the teams in their Div. (4 Games) and all the teams in Div. B (5 games) equals 9 Conference games. Next year Div. A&C play and B &D and so on like the NFL. Thus a school would play every team in the BIG every three years.”
W – USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, ND
N – NE, IA, WI, MN, KU
S – MI, MSU, OSU, PU, IN
E – NW, IL, PSU, RU, UMD
B10 schools don’t want to play each other only once every 3 years. The money would need to be huge for them to agree.
With no divisions:
9 games = 3 locked + 16 teams * 38%
10 games = 3 locked + 16 teams * 44%
“Yes the Cal. Schools don’t even like to go to Oregon but $$$ talks. As Winston Zeddmore once said, “If there’s a steady paycheck in it, I’ll believe anything.”
Yes it seems far fetched but I now believe anything is possible in this changing world.”
I don’t think the money would work. There are two many emotional costs plus extra travel to make it work.
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Brian,
Thanks for the thoughtful response. Hard to argue with any of your points. Probably would only work if football separated itself from the rest of college sports. BTW I still think ND has an escape clause of some sort. You never know when a prettier girl might walk by. LOL
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Doug,
“Probably would only work if football separated itself from the rest of college sports.”
At that point you’re basically talking about a modern version of the Airplane Conference. That seems most likely only if the courts decide players in revenue sports must get paid so schools decide to separate football and men’s basketball from the rest of the NCAA.
Then you get NFL and NBA lite.
Who would make it? Basically the top 25-30 programs plus some for markets. Below is a rough idea.
Football only:
ACC – Miami, FSU, Clemson, UNC, VT, SU, BC
B10 – PSU, OSU, MI, NE, WI, MSU, IA
B12 – UT, OU
P12 – ASU, USC, Stanford, UO, UW, CU
SEC – UF, UGA, AL, LSU, TAMU, MO, TN
Other – ND, BYU, Boise
Basketball only:
ACC – UNC, Duke, GT, UVA, SU, UL, Pitt
B10 – OSU, MI, WI, MSU, IU, PU, IL, UMD
B12 – UT, OU, KU
P12 – UA, UCLA, Stanford, UO, UW
SEC – UF, UK, TAMU, MO, TN, VU
Other – ND, BYU, UConn
Football and basketball:
ACC – UNC, SU
B10 – OSU, MI, WI, MSU
B12 – UT, OU
P12 – Stanford, UO, UW
SEC – UF, TAMU, MO, TN
Other – ND, BYU
17 schools made both lists. You’d have to make some compromises to make 1 group of 32 for both sports (I leave that as an exercise for the reader). Or maybe you make a group of 16 that plays both with a supplementary set of 16 in each sport. Or do market forces drive a number larger than 32?
Those schools would make a ton of money, especially if they play both sports in it. And if it let them avoid paying athletes, that’s a huge savings. But what about everyone else? There would still be some money to be made by the next 32 football and basketball programs. Do they form a B league? I don’t think so. I think they’d press to have a group of 64ish (essentially the P5) as one big semi-pro league. Call it 72 schools that play both football and basketball or maybe just 64 plus 8 that
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Men’s lacrosse:
#1 UMD faces #4 Duke in the national semifinals this afternoon. #3 Yale plays #2 Albany in the other semifinal.
Women’s lacrosse:
#1 UMD lost to #4 BC in the national semifinals yesterday.
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UMD’s men lost in the semis as well, so no repeat title. Duke will face Yale on Monday.
http://results.golfstat.com/public/leaderboards/gsnav.cfm?pg=team&tid=15139
Meanwhile, NW is T3 in the men’s golf championship at the moment. IL is T13. Today is the 2nd round of stroke play. The top 15 teams and 9 individuals make the cut to play rounds 3 and 4. After that, the individual champion is crowned. Then the top 8 teams advance to match play quarterfinals on Monday. The match play ends on Wednesday with a team title winner.
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Welp. NW had a terrible Saturday (28 strokes worse than Friday) and missed the cut by 2 strokes to finish 17th. 14th place IL had a weak Sunday (25 strokes worse than the leader – Duke) to just make the cut and trail Duke by 27 strokes. The top 15 teams and 9 individuals from other teams will play one more round of stroke play. That will decide the individual champion and set the top 8 teams to advance to match play. IL trails 8th place Kent State by 9 strokes, so they’ll need a heckuva day. Northwestern has a solid chance to advance a player (their top guy is T40 right now).
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IL played well but couldn’t move up enough to advance to match play. IL moved up 3 spots to 11th. Unfortunately NW’s player had an off day and dropped 11 places to T50.
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Women’s softball is having the chalkiest tournament ever. Not only did all 16 hosts advance to the super regionals, but all 8 national seeds won their home super regional so the WCWS will feature seeds #1-8. Yawn. 4 P12, 2 SEC, 1 ACC and 1 B12 team.
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Speaking of chalk, #1 MN beat #2 PU to win the B10 baseball tournament. The NCAA selections are tomorrow and the B10 looks to get 5 or even a new conference record 6 teams in.
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https://d1baseball.com/projections/2018-final-projected-field-of-64/
D1 did 1 last set of projections after the 16 regional hosts were announced. They still had UF #1.
D1 says that IL was the first team out in their final projection and got bumped due to Morehead State winning the OVC and turning it into a 2-bid league.
• Illinois just misses the cut, at No. 47 in the RPI, 17-11 vs. Big Ten teams, 7-7 against the top 50 — it’s a nice resumé, worthy of an at-large spot. We just ran out of room. We also rank the Illini ahead of Arizona, thanks in part to their 3-0 weekend against Pac-12 contenders Arizona, UCLA and Washington in Minneapolis early this year (while Arizona went 0-3 against the Big Ten in the same weekend). The Wildcats also have fewer top 50 wins (5-7) and a comparable RPI (No. 46), and they finished with a losing record against Pac-12 teams (15-16). We don’t project either to make it, but we’d give Illinois a slightly better chance than Arizona.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2018-05-27/2018-ncaa-baseball-championship-di-selections-announced
Looks like D1Baseball.com knew what they were doing. UF got the #1 seed and IL didn’t make it. Sorry Frank.
MN got the #14 seed. The B10 only ended up with 4 teams getting in, same as the AAC and P12.
B10:
MN is the top seed in their regional
PU is #2 in UNC’s regional (UNC = national #6)
IN is #2 in Texas’s regional (UT = national #13)
OSU is #3 in ECU’s regional (ECU = national #12)
Go Gophers.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-wac-lessons-we-learned-from-the-16-team-conference-experiment/
Frank tweeted a link to this Dennis Dodd piece about the collapse of the WAC16 20 years ago this weekend. It’s a good read.
What we’re left with is a cautionary tale – and plenty of questions — in this age of the super conference. Did the WAC experience teach us college athletics reached Peak Realignment — the point at which any conference diminishes its strength and wealth by expanding beyond the current max membership of 14 (in football with the ACC, Big Ten, SEC)? Is that old WAC a working blueprint when 16-team leagues are considered today?
“Going back to that time frame, I don’t think [16 teams] would work in 1996,” Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson said. “I don’t think it would work in 2018.”
I think it’s apples and oranges to compare the WAC 20 years ago to a P5 conference today. The WAC was never a major TV draw compared to the P5 and TV money was an order of magnitude less back then. Cable TV was also still fairly new, satellite TV was a non-entity, the internet was all dial-up and the concept of streaming didn’t exist. This is a new world and I think a larger conference could work if constructed and managed properly.
What is the optimal size for a superconference (16+)? It depends on the origins.
1. A merger of 2 smaller groups -> 18 is best
Have 2 divisions of 9 with no crossover games that count. Schedule at least 1 crossover game as an OOC game every year just to keep some contact. Keep the CCG as the only crossover game that matters. In basketball play everyone once with 3 locked rivals for double plays for 20 total games.
2. A big conference adds a few -> 16 is best
Drop divisions but keep the CCG by changing the NCAA rules. 9 games = 3 locked rivals + 6 rotating games against the other 12 teams. Play 20 basketball games with 3 locked rivals to play twice and 2 rotating second games.
I think 18 is tough for keeping cohesiveness unless you spent a long time with 9 members (ACC?) so you can form divisions. The B10 would do better at 20 than 18 I think. Put the newbies versus the early 10 to keep old rivalries. PSU would get upset, but they’d get some OOC home and homes with OSU and MI to pacify them. They might even prefer some of the newest members.
—
Talking more about the WAC16:
“Who in the F-word came up with this?”
Benson remembers those words from incoming Utah president Bernie Machen, who had just arrived at Utah after serving as Michigan’s provost.
He walked into the equivalent of an advanced calculus class regarding college athletics. The 16-team WAC was split into two divisions. It included “quad” scheduling where groups of four teams would play part of a rotating schedule for a two-year period. Then the quads would be shuffled.
It was harder to write down than it was to explain.
“I was fresh out of the Big Ten, and I couldn’t understand it,” Machen said. “If I can’t understand it — as simple as I am — there must be a problem.”
Pods really aren’t that difficult of a concept. It says a lot about Machen and the other presidents if they found the concept confusing. I understand it was a new concept, but they’re PhD’s.
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It just makes it too complicated to figure out who you will play. KISS. No legends and leaders. And who really remembers whether FSU is Coastal or Atlantic and who is in which division in the ACC?
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I think that depends on the conference. The WAC was too minor for people to know who was in it anyway, so outside fans would’ve been confused even with geographic divisions. I also think WAC fans would’ve caught on pretty quickly. Most fans just look up next year’s schedule online anyway, so as long as the main rivalries are still on it they wouldn’t care. Plenty of fans really only care about 2-3 games per season, and those aren’t always in conference.
I agree KISS is generally a wise principle to follow, but I’m not sure it would’ve worked well for the WAC16. In hindsight, I think they might have done better without divisions despite not getting a CCG. Play 9 games with 3 locked rivals and 6 rotating games versus the other 12 teams. They could’ve petitioned to get the CCG rules changed and the P6 back then might well have allowed it.
I assume most ACC fans know. I know at least 3 teams in each (Clemson, FSU, UL / Miami, VT, GT )and I know whether they are Coastal (the weaker division right now) or Atlantic. I have no reason to care about the others. But a geographic split would be terrible for them with all the football power in the south. A zipper was their only choice if they had to have divisions.
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LeBron is entering Bill Russell territory.
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Click to access ncaa-mens-doubles.pdf
OSU’s men’s doubles pairing is playing today for the national title in men’s tennis doubles.
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As is typical for B10 teams/players, they lost the title match. All 3 sets went to tie breakers with OSU winning the 1st set and leading both 5-4 and 6-5 in the 2nd set before losing it. They lost the 3rd set 11-9.
Is it my imagination or does the B10 have a significantly worse W% in championships than any other P5 conference? It sure seems to happen a lot to B10 teams and individuals.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/espn/tensions-built-up-over-time-between-john-skipper-and-bob-iger.html
Apparently tension had built up between John Skipper (president of ESPN) and Bob Iger (Disney’s CEO) before Skipper left suddenly in December. The true source article was in the WSJ but this Awful Announcing piece analyzes the WSJ article and isn’t behind a paywall.
Those comments created quite a stir externally, drawing some strong criticism from outlets like TechDirt. And now we have a better sense of the drama they created internally, and of their potential role in widening a Skipper-Iger divide. It’s also interesting that ESPN seemed to be proceeding very cautiously on the OTT front until near the end of Skipper’s tenure, something that seems in contrast to Iger’s focus on it (and it’s being discussed as a much bigger priority now Pitaro is in charge). We knew that Skipper and Iger weren’t always on the same page, but this reporting is significant for perhaps showing that divide was wider than thought.
…
And differences in approach between Skipper and Iger may also explain some of the contrary messaging and indecisive actions we’ve seen from ESPN over the past few years, and they may further suggest that we’ll see a much different ESPN under Pitaro.
…
The article is notable for more than that, of course. It has some interesting thoughts on morale, including a whole bunch of anonymous former execs taking shots (credit to Jeannine Edwards for going on the record with her “I think the morale there is probably as bad as I’ve seen it in my 22-year tenure” quote, unlike many of the others involved), but some current talent saying things are going in the right direction under Pitaro.
It also has a very funny line from former ESPN executive vice-president (programming and production) Mark Shapiro (now co-president of WME-IMG), who said “there was too much emphasis on talking heads and fiery opinions and less on breaking news and analysis.”
…
The piece also has some details on ESPN’s revenues and subscribers, current and projected, and those elements are interesting, as are some of the quotes about the perceived politics of the network.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/move-clemson-oregon-alabama-northwesterns-ridiculous-new-practice-facility-unparalleled-college-football-220858185.html
Pete Thamel with a lengthy piece about NW’s new indoor training facility and the new, deeper commitment to athletic success it represents.
In the collegiate space, Northwestern’s facility makes the University of Texas look three decades behind, sends taunting echoes to the facilities at Notre Dame and out-Hollywoods both USC and UCLA. “When you see that football field laying beautifully inside that incredibly designed structure, it takes your breath away,” said Pat Ryan, the Northwestern donor and trustee for whom the football fieldhouse is named.
The improbability of this all happening at Northwestern can’t be overstated. This is Northwestern, a school with football facilities so bleak that Fitzgerald hosted Junior Days across campus to avoid showing them to recruits. This is Northwestern, a school with three times as many winless seasons (6) as outright Big Ten titles (2). Two of those winless years came under Dennis Green and Ara Parseghian, coaches who later showed that their X’s and O’s likely weren’t holding the school back. “We chose striving for mediocrity,” says Ryan of the lean decades. “When you strive for mediocrity, you generally fail.”
…
The institutional desire for Northwestern purple to intermingle with the bluebloods includes a $400 million athletic building boom on campus, as the growl of bulldozers and “beep-beep-beep” of trucks provides the soundtrack to a basketball arena renovation and new practice facility.
The opening of Ryan Fieldhouse, though, comes at a particularly captivating time for Fitzgerald’s program. Northwestern football is coming off a 10-win season, and Northwestern’s 27 wins the past three years rank as the best stretch in school history. It also puts them No. 15 overall in college football in wins over that time, a sign of perhaps a new standard now that the setting is catching up with the results.
Northwestern returns star quarterback and all-time win leader Clayton Thorson, who projects to be ready for the season coming off ACL rehab. They also host Michigan, Nebraska, Notre Dame and Wisconsin this season for what school officials are billing as the best home schedule in school history. “We’ve been a winner,” Fitzgerald says during the tour. “Now this is a commitment to becoming a championship contender.”
Northwestern’s upward football construction trajectory can be traced back to a singular day – Jan. 6 of 2011. Officials from the University of Michigan, including athletic director Dave Brandon and a search firm representative, came to Chicago in an attempt to lure Fitzgerald to replace Rich Rodriguez.
Ryan, the longtime donor, trustee and the most benevolent benefactor in university history, flew back from Florida to meet with Fitzgerald. Then-board chair William Osborn also few back from Arizona. They met with athletic director Jim Phillips, president Morton Schapiro and Fitzgerald, who described to them the level of commitment necessary from a facility perspective to change Northwestern football’s paradigm. “It was a pivot point,” Phillips said in a phone interview. “It was never contentious, it was nothing other than being receptive and figuring out a way for this to work for everyone.”
Fitzgerald agreed to not interview with Michigan. Northwestern agreed to, essentially, support football at a level that brings the school closer to Big Ten brethren like Michigan. “Pat didn’t want to leave,” Ryan said. “Pat also knew what it required to really get to the next level.”
It’s hard to imagine 27 wins in 3 seasons being the greatest stretch in a program’s history, but seasons did used to be shorter. Thamel needs a footnote to his claim of NW being 15th in wins over that period, though. That’s only counting Power 5 teams. Overall NW is T22 in wins.
For context, AL is the wins leader over that time with 41 to Clemson’s 40. OSU is 3rd with 35 to lead the B10. WI (34), PSU (29), IA (28) and MI (28) also lead NW which is part of why moving up in the pecking order will be tough for NW. They also face improving programs at NE, PU, MN and IL. They’re current locked crossover game is with MSU. They one bright spot is that they are in the lower tier for parity-based scheduling so in 2022 MSU will rotate away from being locked and they’ll get UMD or RU instead for 6 years.
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The schools of the B12 are the most likely to come I to play starting around the 2023 time-frame. That’s not news.
It’s the PAC that I think is intriguing. Does the PAC have too many light-weight schools?
Would a core of the four CA schools, OR, and WA develop designs next decade?
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Sports success is important, but it is not what defines a conference. Conferences are built around and continue to exist because of a common culture and history, similar academic goals, and proximity. Proximity is really behind the culture. The Midwest culture vs. the South’s culture is really what distinguishes the B1G from the SEC. I cannot imagine SoCal or Oregon or Washington schools in the B1G. Chardonnay-sipping surfer boy won’t fit into a Columbus brats-and-beer tailgate. Nebraska barely does.
It should also be noted that the Kings need the Princesses: Ohio State needs Purdue. That is how 12 win seasons are built. If the Kings only play each other, they each will have .500 seasons, and no one will know that they are Kings.
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I could see the Big 12 and Pac splitting into two leagues:
* A top-tier league with the four California schools, Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas;
* A lower-tier league with Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Texas Tech, Baylor, Okie State, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Christian. (West Virginia could join too, but if WVU thought travel was a pain now…? Perhaps it could wind up in the ACC, alongside fellow Tier 3 Louisville.)
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“* A top-tier league with the four California schools, Arizona, Arizona State, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas;”
West = USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, UO, UW
South = UA, ASU, CU, OU, UT, KU
That’s 12 members but it requires UT to drop all their in-state schools. Will the politicians let that happen?
“* A lower-tier league with Washington State, Oregon State, Utah, Texas Tech, Baylor, Okie State, Kansas State, Iowa State and Texas Christian. (West Virginia could join too, but if WVU thought travel was a pain now…? Perhaps it could wind up in the ACC, alongside fellow Tier 3 Louisville.)”
That lower tier would have no reason not to invite Boise and BYU, certainly. Probably SDSU as well to make 12 and get a CA market.
West = WSU, OrSU, Utah, BYU, Boise, SDSU
South = TT, Baylor, TCU, OkSU, KSU, ISU
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Good additions to the “lower nine.” For some of them, a conference such as this might be the only way they remain (or become) a Power 5 member.
As for Texas playing in-state rivals, how about rotating Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor over a six-year period? That leaves UT with two open dates, assuming the new conference plays a 9-game schedule.
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For mental exercises these fantasies may be fun. But, remember there has been only one brief expulsion from a (bipolar) power conference. Only the dissolution of the SWC and the absorption of only some into the reconstituted Big8(12) has cost a school its membership.
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bob sykes,
“Sports success is important, but it is not what defines a conference.”
But should it be?
“Conferences are built around and continue to exist because of a common culture and history, similar academic goals, and proximity.”
They were built that way until recently, yes. But the proximity, common culture and history have taken a back seat for many conferences to financial considerations. WV is hardly a fit for the B12. RU only shares culture with the B10 in an academic sense. BC and FSU have nothing in common.
The similar academic goals have been more important to some conferences than others. The B10 stresses that, but even they let in Nebraska. It’s hard to say that Cal and OrSU share academic goals, or UT and KSU, or Vanderbilt and MsSU.
More importantly, I think schools need to evaluate whether there is any need for academic conferences and athletic conferences to be the same anymore. B10 schools work with other elite schools all the time. The AAU is essentially a big academic conference. Why do the sports teams need to affiliate with those same schools? There’s a reason the B10 doesn’t play the Ivy League much in sports and it isn’t academics.
“Proximity is really behind the culture. The Midwest culture vs. the South’s culture is really what distinguishes the B1G from the SEC.”
I agree, but that’s getting blurred in most directions. The ACC and SEC overlap. The ACC and B10 overlap. The B10 and B12 overlap. The SEC and B12 overlap. RU has more in common with several ACC schools than with much of the B10. NE fits with the B12 better than much of the B10. 50 years ago the conferences were more geographic and the regions were more different.
The north/south divide will last a very long time due to the Civil War, but southern states are getting northernized (see MD, FL and big cities in the south) as people migrate and mass media
homogenizes America. The larger divide now is usually rural versus urban.
“I cannot imagine SoCal or Oregon or Washington schools in the B1G. Chardonnay-sipping surfer boy won’t fit into a Columbus brats-and-beer tailgate. Nebraska barely does.”
Me neither, not in a traditional conference concept. But I could see playing them more through scheduling agreements.
“It should also be noted that the Kings need the Princesses: Ohio State needs Purdue. That is how 12 win seasons are built. If the Kings only play each other, they each will have .500 seasons, and no one will know that they are Kings.”
This is one of the fundamental differences between college and pro sports. College sports are built on bluebloods with high winning percentages and that requires lesser teams to beat. CFB might lose a ton of fans if they aren’t careful as all the top teams start going 8-4. They might gain enough new fans to make it worth their while, but it would hurt the schools come donation time.
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XOVERX,
“It’s the PAC that I think is intriguing. Does the PAC have too many light-weight schools?”
They have some (WSU, OrSU, maybe others), but so does every P5. Besides, they also have very few other options and significant political barriers preventing them from dropping those schools. TV was a non-factor when the old conferences formed and now some schools that brought a lot (geographic proximity, similar values, etc) to the table aren’t nearly as valuable. But what politicians want to throw a major state university to the wolves?
It will take a substantial increase in the financial gap to the ACC/B12, to the point where the P12 is falling behind on the field/court, to spur the philosophical change to chase the money for some by “trimming the fat.”
“Would a core of the four CA schools, OR, and WA develop designs next decade?”
They’d lose Denver, Salt Lake City and Phoenix as home markets and drive away millions of fans. Besides, that wouldn’t fix their 2 biggest problems:
1. Being 3 hours behind hurts them with eastern viewers and thus financially.
2. Western fans don’t care as much about college sports.
There is no good fix for geography.
Also, designs on what?
Merging with the cream of the B12? So not only do UO and UW need to ditch their “little brothers” but OU and KU and UT do as well? There are a lot of people who would try to stop that. Would either group really be happy with that new conference anyway? Everyone would lose familiar foes and several rivals and they would add a lot of travel expenses.
Partnering with the B10? What’s in it for the B10? Making teams regularly play 3 time zones away is a huge demand for amateur athletes, especially in the non-revenue sports.
Shrinking to a smaller conference? They’d lose leverage with the networks that would waste much of the gain they expected by splitting the pie fewer ways.
I don’t think the P12 has a lot of options. They can make another attempt at the P16 with UT and friends. Beyond that, they may need to just be more efficient with their money.
The only real solution I see for them would take major changes in college sports. Say the courts force schools to pay players of revenue sports (and thus potentially all athletes due to Title IX), so the schools separate the revenue sports from everything else. That leads to NFL lite and NBA lite. Those groups would cherrypick the cream of the crop in terms of schools and pay them a lot more money. The P12 (and other P5 conferences) or their politicians could choose to force those schools to share some of the wealth with the other members left behind in return.
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Designs on the B1G?
In a big B1G, consider a 24-school conference in 4 pods of 6.
A West pod of the 4 California schools, WA, and OR. Suddenly the B1G controls the entire West Coast, but without the lightweight schools.
Add to that Texas, OU, KU, CU.
Yes, that would mean,apparently, 11 conference games, but the revenue would me immense, best I can tell.
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XOVERX,
“Designs on the B1G?”
I did mention merging with the B10 as an option.
“In a big B1G, consider a 24-school conference in 4 pods of 6.
A West pod of the 4 California schools, WA, and OR. Suddenly the B1G controls the entire West Coast, but without the lightweight schools.
Add to that Texas, OU, KU, CU.”
What are the pods?
W – USC, UCLA, Stanford, Cal, UW, UO
S – CU, UT, OU, KU, NE, IA?
N – WI, MN, NW, IL, PU, IN
E – MI, MSU, OSU, PSU, RU, UMD
IA would be very upset as would WI and MN for losing their annual games with IA. I think all 6 teams in the north pod would be upset at playing all these newbies just as much as OSU, MI, etc.
Wouldn’t it work just as well to combine the 10 new schools as the New 10 conference and have it partner with the B10 for scheduling? If not, then would the money really improve by enough to feed all those mouths? All the bowl and CCG money would have to be split 24 ways instead of 14
“Yes, that would mean,apparently, 11 conference games, but the revenue would me immense, best I can tell.”
Would it? They would feel like OOC games. Would western fans suddenly watch those more than they do P12 games?
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A Reddit user looked back through the past 25 NFL drafts and broke things down by school, position, coach, round, year, etc. Using a points system (1st round = 7 pts, 2nd = 6, etc) he gave teams scores.
He lists the top 5 or 10 schools for several things in the post, but of more interest is he includes the link to his GoogleDoc that contains all the data. You can look and see how any P5 school of interest to you fared.
For example, his total points list from his post:
Top-10 Total Draft Points (Since 1994):
#1: Ohio State (714)
#2: Florida State (669)
#3: USC (607)
#4: Florida (602)
#5: Alabama (600)
#6: Miami (593)
#7: LSU (525)
#8: Georgia (510)
#9: Tennesse (486)
#10: Notre Dame (449)
From the sheet, you can continue it:
11. OU
12. UM
13. PSU
14. NE
15. WI
16. UT
17. Clemson
18. UNC
19. TAMU
20. Cal
For comparison, I went back to look at the top teams in W% over the previous 25 seasons.
Rank by W% (among P5 only) – Rank in draft pts
1. Ohio State – 1
2. Florida State – 2
3. Florida – 4
4. Oklahoma – 11
5. Virginia Tech – 22
6. Nebraska – 14
7. Wisconsin – 15
8. Georgia – 8
9. Louisiana State – 7
10. Oregon – 27
11. Southern Cal – 3
12. Alabama – 5
13. Miami-Florida – 6
14. Texas – 16
15. Penn State – 13
16. Michigan – 12
17. Auburn – 21
18. Texas Christian – 50*
19. Kansas State – 40
20. Clemson – 17
22. Tennessee – 9
25. Notre Dame – 10
* – Wasn’t P5 for most of the period
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Oops. Sorry. I didn’t know the full post would show up from just the link. I hate that sort of behavior. Stupid WordPress.
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http://footballscoop.com/news/football-basketball-baseball-postseason-texas-ucla/
15 I-A schools had team make the postseason in football, hoops and baseball this school year. Congrats to all of them.
ACC (4)
Clemson
Duke
Florida State
NC State
American (1)
Houston
Big Ten (2)
Ohio State
Purdue
Big 12 (3)
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas Tech
Mountain West (1)
San Diego State
Pac-12 (1)
UCLA
SEC (2)
Auburn
Texas A&M
Independent/WAC (1)
New Mexico State
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-northwestern-wisconsin-wrigley-field-20180530-story.html
NW will host WI at Wrigley Field on 11/7/2020. They expect to be able to play both ways this time.
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Click to access May24overallDI.pdf
As usual, the B10 is doing well in the Director’s Cup. Stanford is #1 again, but the B10 is 2nd-4th.
B10 standings right now:
2. MI
3. PSU
4. OSU
9. MN
14. WI
19. NE
33. PU
35. IN
42. MSU
46. NW
52. IL
53. IA
55. UMD
(13 P5 schools)
93. RU
(118. BC)
RU still lags the rest of the B10 by a sizable amount. It’ll be curious to see if they start to improve once they start getting a full financial share. Starting in 2018 RU will get a sizable financial bump ($24M in 2018-2020, >$44M in 2021 and beyond). So far, the move to the B10 has had no measurable impact on their final results.
RU’s finishes:
2018 – 93 (so far – not done until the end of June)
2017 – 116
2016 – 83
2015 – 104
2014 – 91
2013 – 120
2012 – 111
2011 – 158
2010 – 96
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For Rutgers, it’s as much culture as money. A big-time athletic program isn’t born overnight.
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They started changing the mindset a while ago as they started making the push to join a P5. As they start to get the money without a giant subsidy from the academic side, that should help change the attitudes of those who have been resisting. It also means they can more freely spend where they need to in order to become more competitive.
I’m just curious to see if money can quickly (a few years) make a difference versus waiting a generation or two for the culture to change.
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Those Director’s Cup standings can’t be up to date. Illinois has zero points for spring, but their spring sports have done very well. Men’s tennis made the NCAA quarterfinals. Men’s baseball was one of the last-four out of the NCAA tournament, but finished 4th in the B1G and had a very strong season overall. Men’s golf finished 11th in the nation. Women’s tennis finished 20th in the nation. Women’s golf ended up #24 in the final Golfweek national rankings. Women’s softball was 37-18 and just missed the NCAA tournament.
I would have to think Illinois should move up significantly in the standings after their strong spring sports.
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Stephen,
“Those Director’s Cup standings can’t be up to date. Illinois has zero points for spring, but their spring sports have done very well. Men’s tennis made the NCAA quarterfinals. Men’s baseball was one of the last-four out of the NCAA tournament, but finished 4th in the B1G and had a very strong season overall. Men’s golf finished 11th in the nation. Women’s tennis finished 20th in the nation. Women’s golf ended up #24 in the final Golfweek national rankings. Women’s softball was 37-18 and just missed the NCAA tournament.”
It is their most recent release. They don’t grant points for a sport until after the national championship is decided and they do several releases during each season. They have not yet accounted for golf, tennis, lacrosse, rowing, track&field, softball or baseball in 2018.
“I would have to think Illinois should move up significantly in the standings after their strong spring sports.”
Lots of schools will gain points. The final release comes out 6/29 due to baseball.
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That’s what I figured. I know other schools will add points, but spring is the best season for Illinois sports overall. If they are 52 now, I would think they will move up to at least the 40’s in the final standings, if not higher.
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Illinois is already up to #38 and that does not include a #20 finish in men’s track and a decent season in baseball. They could move up even more in the final rankings.
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Yeah, there are just too many moving parts for me to want to track it. Even with just 4 sports left there will be a lot of movement. Next week’s release will count all but baseball, making it easier to analyze.
You have to make the NCAA to score in baseball, so any team within 100 points next week that made the CWS could pass IL. There will be few, if any, teams that fit that mark.
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Illinois finished #36 in the final standings, even with being one of the final two teams left out of the baseball tournament
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http://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-spt-acc-revenue-0526-story.html
The ACC’s numbers came out.
Atlantic Coast Conference revenue increased 12 percent in 2016-17, but the league’s average distribution to member schools continues to lag behind its Power Five peers.
…
The ACC’s average distribution to 14 full-time members of $26.6 million was last among the Power Five — with only 10 schools, the Big 12’s average distribution was $34.3 million, the latter figure from USA Today’s Steve Berkowitz.
Mean per-school shares for the other Power Fives, according to USA Today, were: Southeastern Conference $40.9 million, Big Ten $37 million and Pacific 12 $30.9 million.
The ACCN starts in 8/2019 which will provide some additional revenue, but not enough to catch the B12 (especially once you factor in their 3rd tier rights individually). The B10 and SEC will be well ahead of them but the ACC and P12 may be similar for a while. The ACC’s GOR lasts until 2036 but they might have some internal strife before then.
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The ACC’s GOR lasts until 2036 but they might have some internal strife before then.
Hey Brian,
In your opinion what ACC teams might become disenchanted and what would their
possible options be?
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It would probably be the same ones that have spoken up before or are having financial problems. The private schools tend to be pretty quiet about the financial side because they can be, but it drove UMD to leave. I know GT has had budget problems. I also know that the southern schools are more football focused and have complained before. We know FSU and others were concerned before.
Imagine the finances in 2020 looking something like this:
B10 – $50M
SEC – $45M
B12 – $42M including tier 3 (I’m doing rough averages for each conference)
P12 – $35M
ACC – $35M
Then in the mid-20s, the B10, B12, P12 and SEC renegotiate so by 2026 (assumes no realignment):
B10 – $65M
SEC – $65M
B12 – $55M including tier 3
P12 – $48M
ACC – $40M (their deal lasts until 2036)
How long would ACC schools tolerate trailing in-state SEC foes by $25M per year? That could make it very hard to keep a school like FSU happy.
Possible options?
* The B10 might want a few of them (UVA, UNC, Duke, GT)
* The B12 might consider expansion more seriously if they can get FSU and Clemson
* The cream of the B12, P12 and ACC could look at making an airplane conference
I’m not saying this is a likely scenario, but then 20 years ago nobody would’ve believed UMD and NE would be in the B10 either.
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The $64M question: Given the ACC’s air-tight GOR through 2036, how do they escape? And if, in our hypothetical situation, the six members you mention depart, shrinking the ACC to eight (nine if Notre Dame remains) where do its replacements come from? Connecticut and Cincinnati, certainly; how about Houston and Southern Methodist? Or, given the ACC’s fondness for private institutions, Rice and Tulane?
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Given the ACC’s air-tight GOR. I would respectfully disagree that it is air-tight.. It would seem that the cost of litigation would be the factor holding a team back.
The Journal of Sports and Entertainment Law (Harvard Law School) has an interesting article on the GOR and discusses the (BIG, Pac12, Big 12, ACC) GOR. It discusses several different means of attack on the GOR. Which may or may not be successful. Which circles back to, would a school ligate where the outcome would be uncertain?
Click to access Wilhelm.pdf
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vp81955,
“The $64M question: Given the ACC’s air-tight GOR through 2036, how do they escape?”
They wait until 2034ish unless the turmoil builds to the point that the majority want out (which I don’t think would ever happen). I’m guessing the lawyers made the GOR tight enough that escaping early is cost prohibitive. But once even one school refuses to extend the GOR, the conference is better off negotiating to let them out than not being able to extend their GOR and negotiate the next TV deal.
“And if, in our hypothetical situation, the six members you mention depart, shrinking the ACC to eight (nine if Notre Dame remains) where do its replacements come from? Connecticut and Cincinnati, certainly; how about Houston and Southern Methodist? Or, given the ACC’s fondness for private institutions, Rice and Tulane?”
I’d guess the ACC would lose at most 4, maybe just 1 or 2 (more likely is losing nobody), but I’ll work with your 6. ND would negotiate to shrink their deal to 4 games per year since several top brands left. The ACC would have to be strategic in seeking replacements. UConn adds a state to the footprint and a hoops brand. UC fits geographically and add another new state. I’d look for UCF and USF potentially to replace the southern losses so Miami doesn’t look elsewhere.
North = BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt, UC, UL
South = Miami, UCF, USF, WF, NCSU, UVA
8 games = 5 in division + 3 rotating crossovers (50%)
ND plays 2 teams from each division in exchange for a home for their other sports
In the smaller losses scenarios:
1. Losses = Clemson and FSU
Maybe stay at 12, but consider UCF and USF to bolster the FL footprint for recruiting and markets. Maybe look at UCF or USF + UConn instead but football brands are what they need.
2. Losses = UVA and GT
Stay at 12.
3. Losses = UVA and UNC
Look at adding UConn and UC for basketball brands.
4. Losses = UV, GT, UNC and Duke
Look at adding UConn and UC for basketball brands but shrinking to 12.
5. Losses = UV, GT, Clemson and FSU
Look at adding UConn and UC for basketball brands plus UCF and USF to shore up FL.
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Doug,
“I would respectfully disagree that it is air-tight.. It would seem that the cost of litigation would be the factor holding a team back.”
Also the “cost” of getting dirty laundry exposed in court, becoming a pariah for being the one to break the GORs that many schools depend on for protection and the potential financial cost of winning (exit fees, lost rights, whatever). I think almost everyone would rather negotiate an escape than fight it out in court. If done close to the expiration date, it might not even be all that expensive.
“The Journal of Sports and Entertainment Law (Harvard Law School) has an interesting article on the GOR and discusses the (BIG, Pac12, Big 12, ACC) GOR. It discusses several different means of attack on the GOR. Which may or may not be successful. Which circles back to, would a school ligate where the outcome would be uncertain?”
That looks like a great source for a future blog post by Frank. I’ll let all the lawyers here dig into the details of it because 62 pages of legal analysis is beyond my expertise. Just reading the table of contents is somewhat informative, though.
I. Introduction: An Instant Classic
II. The Impact of Conference Realignment
A. Tradition
B. Economics
C. Litigation
III. Explanations for Conference Realignment
A. Money
B. University Exposure
C. Winning on the Field
D. A New Theory: Taking M + 1 from the Voting Booth to the Selection Committee
1. Electing a College Football National Champion .
2. Applying M + 1 to Changing Methods of Picking a National Champion
IV. Conferences’ Current Solution to Realignment: The Grant of Rights
A. Text of Grant of Rights
1. Atlantic Coast Conference
2. Big 12 Conference
3. Pac-12 Conference
B. Considerations Underlying the Effectiveness of the Grant of Rights
1. Modeling the Realignment Decision Factors
2. The Money Term Specifically
C. Legal Enforceability of the Grant of Rights
1. Irrevocability
2. Characterization as Liquidated Damages
3. Lack of Specific Performance as a Remedy for Breached Grant of Rights
4. Generally Vague
V. Proposed Considerations for Future Grants of Rights from the Conference Perspective
A. Process Considerations
1. Diminishing Effect of Grant of Rights
2. Collateral Risks of a Time-Diminished Grant of Rights
B. Substantive Changes
VI. Alternative Solutions to Conference Realignment
A. Integrate Athletics and Academics
B. Halt Changes to the College Football Playoff Structure: Reacting to the Interplay of
M + 1 and the Realignment Model
VII. Conclusion
A quote from one of Frank’s blog posts is the first footnote in the article.
I want to talk more about this so I’m going to start a new thread of comments.
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Given the ACC’s air-tight GOR through 2036, how do they escape?
IMHO – they won’t. The ACC will sign another extension (like they did before) that will up their value enough to be competitive. ESPN will give them X dollars now for an additional Y years added to their deal.
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Mike,
That is definitely the most likely result. It’s just the least fun to talk about.
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http://www.herald-dispatch.com/sports/marshall_sports/chuck-landon-c-usa-making-big-moves-in-hoops/article_dad0483a-c987-5b60-9041-bfc87418accd.html
CUSA is trying something new in hoops scheduling.
So, how is scheduling going to change that? The most radical difference will be that when the conference schedule is released, built in will be dates for games, but with opponents to be determined. Those dates will be filled with league opponents after the conference seeds the teams following the first 14 games.
“We’re going to play 13 games and your travel partner twice, which would be Western Kentucky for us,” said D’Antoni. “Then they are going to seed the schools. If you finish in the top five, No. 1 through No. 5 will play each other for the next four games to get 18 games.
“Like, if you’re No. 1 you will play No. 4. And you’ll play, I think, No. 4 and No. 3 at home and then travel to No. 2. … There are four games in that five-team slot. No. 1 will play No. 5 and No. 4, I think. And No. 2 and No. 3 will come to No. 1.
“Then, if you’re No. 2 you will play No. 4. It just reverses all the way down until you get everybody in that top group playing each other once. That will give you 18 games.”
The goal is for C-USA’s best teams to play one another in effort to boost the Rating Percentage Index (RPI) of those teams. Those groupings remain in place all season all the way through the conference tournament.
“Once you’re in that top five, since you are playing the tougher teams,” explained D’Antoni, “what they do is guarantee you that you will be one of the top five seeds. You can’t fall out of the top five seeds in the conference tournament.
“And then No. 6 through No. 10 will do the same type of thing. They can’t fall out of six through 10. And then No. 11 through 14 play and the same thing goes there. They can’t get any higher than No. 11 and, obviously, no lower than No. 14.”
This same concept could be applied to football as well. People have called for CFB to use flex scheduling, usuallly without understanding all the ancillary events schools build around home football games. A conference could play all the divisional games plus all but 1 crossover game before Thanksgiving. Then the final week have the teams face the same seed from the other division. It could be big for TV if you make it so that the winner of the 1/1 game makes the CCG while the loser doesn’t, but they may run afoul of the NCAA’s CCG rules.
I wouldn’t suggest this for the P5, but it could help the G5 get some attention and maybe a better bowl game.
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Jon Wilner interviewed the distribution chief for the P12N.
*** Is there room for the Pac-12 regional networks to grow their base, or are they maxed out?
“I would refer you to way Fubo carries us. Fubo carries the national in its base package and then all six regionals in their sports add-on.
“All of the new players in the marketplace have the ability to gear themselves to what the audience needs.”
*** Might the Pac-12 expand its streaming deals before football season?
“I don’t think I can get that specific, but like I said earlier: A big part of our business is expanding our roster. But I’m not going to handicap it.”
*** Fans have been told that retaining 100 percent ownership allows the networks to be nimble, but how has that served the fans? Several key streaming services don’t carry the Pac-12 Networks.
“If you look at what Hulu and YouTube do carry … we certainly are not alone among the networks not on those services. And let’s remember that it’s super early. Most of them have launched in the past year. They’re trying to figure out what they want to carry.
“There will be a tremendous amount of evolution in how those product offerings take shape and what’s the portfolio of content, and we’re just at beginning.”
*** Is there a misconception about the networks in the media narrative?
“If I’m really being honest, it is sometimes painful to be consistently faced with the ‘Oh, they’re so challenged’ narrative.
“The Pac-12 Networks have turned a significant operating surplus every year, they’ve delivered on the mission to elevate the sports that never had been broadcast before, and they’ve represented those student athletes in a caring way.
“Because of our mission, we’re obligated to be very cautious in the way we create content. The fact that we’re able to do that and stand up such a good product and deliver an operating surplus — to me, that’s a success story.
“Would we all like to be making more money? Of course. But I don’t see it as, ‘We’re challenged.’ I see it as, ‘Wow, we have this amazing foundation to build from, to evolve into the next phase.’
“When you look at the trends in the industry, the narrative is that ratings are down, that TV is done. That’s not true. With linear TV, with people on their couch looking at the big screen, yes that’s down. But if you look at total content consumption and factor in mobile and tablets, it’s up.
“The media day is expanding, so that’s an opportunity, and it’s incumbent on us and every programmer to find a business that is going to cultivate fans on the platforms where they live and make them viewers of our content.
“The ‘Pac-12 is challenged’ narrative — I understand why it exists, but I don’t see that from where I sit. I see lots of opportunity.”
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http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/23662223/delaware-first-state-ban-lifted-offer-sports-betting
DE will become the first new state to offer individual game sports betting, starting Tuesday.
Delaware will begin offering Las Vegas-style sports betting at its three casinos on Tuesday, becoming the first state to open for business since the United States Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on state-sponsored sports gambling three weeks ago.
Delaware Park, Dover Downs Hotel & Casino and Harrington Raceway & Casino will begin taking single-game bets on baseball, football, hockey, basketball, soccer, golf and auto racing at 1:30 p.m. Tuesday, the state announced Thursday.
…
New Jersey, which battled the NCAA, NFL and other major professional sports leagues in court for six years, is also hoping to begin offering sports betting in June. A sports betting bill is advancing in the legislature and headed for a vote on June 7.
Mississippi, Pennsylvania and West Virginia are among the states quickly preparing to get into the sports betting game.
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Up above, Doug linked a legal journal article about GORs.
“The Journal of Sports and Entertainment Law (Harvard Law School) has an interesting article on the GOR and discusses the (BIG, Pac12, Big 12, ACC) GOR. It discusses several different means of attack on the GOR. Which may or may not be successful. Which circles back to, would a school ligate where the outcome would be uncertain?
http://harvardjsel.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Wilhelm.pdf”
I excerpted the ToC to give people an idea what’s in the 62 page article but wanted to start a new thread to discuss the article since we were out of REPLY levels. I’ll leave the detailed legal analysis in Part IV to the lawyers. But Part III caught my interest.
The article is a pdf so please excuse the short line lengths:
Part III analyzes the most
prominent explanations of the mechanisms causing realignment, including
money, university exposure, and the desire to win on the field. Further, Part
III advances a new theory for a factor causing conference realignment. This
theory applies the well-known M + 1 rule employed by political scientists
and argues that the way in which college football chooses its annual national
champion has created a structural push toward realignment. Conferences
must address the mechanisms discussed in Part III when implementing any
barrier to conference realignment, including, but not limited to, the grant of
rights.
On to Part III:
This section proposes four main motivating factors be-
hind conference realignment: (1) the well-accepted money factor, (2) in-
creased university exposure, (3) a chance to improve on-the-field
performance, and (4) strategic behavior based upon the structure of choosing
a football national champion.
The fourth factor is the one of interest to me, but I’ll provide one key quote before that.
The current wave of realignment, however, suggests that an attempt to
increase individual school revenues is likely not the cause of the realign-
ment. Studies show that in order to maximize revenue, the ideal conference
size would be twelve schools.54
54 – https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/Trevor%20Abbott%20Honors%20Thesis.pdf
That thesis was written in 2012 so it doesn’t include the most recent round of P5 expansion. I would argue that data from the B10 and SEC might show that the ideal conference size to maximize profit depends on who you are and who you can add. No conference wouldn’t gain a lot by adding ND and UT, for example. And in reading the thesis, he concludes that 14 teams fits within his confidence interval but 16 doesn’t.
For decades, political scientists have discussed Duverger’s Law, which
suggests that, in popular elections, the maximum number of viable political
parties depends on the structure of the electoral system. Based on
Duverger’s findings, Gary W. Cox coined the “M + 1 rule,” 83 which states
that, in multimember electoral systems, “no more than M + 1 candidates
. . . or lists . . . can be viable” in a district with M seats.
His basic model:
Conference = political party
School = candidate
Poll voters/CFP committee = voters
This Article then recognizes that the behaviors observed in political contests
can be translated to shifting allegiances in conference realignment. While
there are certainly many different types of electoral systems, conference divi-
sions most closely translate to multimember electoral districts.
He looked at the poll era and decided the model didn’t really apply because you weren’t competing for the same things. The goal was to win your conference and then you went to the assigned bowl.
Then came the BCS era. The competition was for the at-large spots, which meant 6 power conferences were fighting for 4 spots.
The four at large bids represent the posi-
tions up for “election.” In other words, in the
M + 1 formulation, M = 4.
Therefore, one would expect those six conferences to strategically condense
to a maximum of five conferences to maximize each conference’s likelihood
of placing a second team in a BCS game though an at large bid (in addition
to the automatic bid). If, however, the six BCS conferences had actually
condensed into five power conferences, the M + 1 effect would have allowed
the number of stable major conferences back to six. Of the ten bowl slots,
five would be awarded to the new five major conferences, leaving five at
large bids remaining; again, with at large bids representing positions up for
election, M = 5, and one would expect a maximum of M + 1, or six,
conferences to form.
Admittedly, there must be a reason why the number of viable confer-
ences did not constantly fluctuate between five and six during the BCS pe-
riod. A compelling explanation is the transaction costs associated with
changing conferences. As discussed above, moving from one conference to
another — while it may impact the chances for a national championship
— does involve an incredible cost on the part of schools.
The conflict ended when the CFP began. Now there was no competing force driving for 6 conferences. All forces said there should be 5.
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Part IV starts with excerpts from the GORs for the ACC, B12 and P12. He includes this about the B10:
Requests to Big Ten schools — including Michigan State University, Ohio
State University, the University of Michigan,125 and the University of Wis-
consin, all of which provided denials for varying reasons126 —
ultimately returned no responsive documents.127
126
Michigan State University’s denial stated that it possessed the document but
that the Big Ten Grant of Rights was a “trade secret” falling under a disclosure
exemption pursuant to the State of Michigan’s MCL 390.1554(1)(d), as the Grant
“contains unique and proprietary information of significant commercial value, in
which Michigan State University, as a member of the Big Ten Conference, holds an
interest. Michigan State University, its Intercollegiate Athletics Department, and
its student athletes, directly benefit from the media rights contracts negotiated by
the Big Ten Conference on the University’s behalf.” Letter from Ellen Armentrout,
Freedom of Information Act Office & Assistant General Counsel, Michigan State
University, to author (Dec. 10, 2014) (on file with Harvard Law School Library).
Ohio State University, the University of Michigan, and the University of Wisconsin
all denied having responsive documents after conducting a reasonable search of their
respective records.
127
It is not clear why Big Ten schools do not provide copies of the grants of their
broadcast rights that they have reportedly given to the conference.
See, e.g., Alex Prewitt, ACC Grant of Rights Deal Might Weaken ACC’s Exit-Fee Lawsuit Against Maryland, Wash. Post, April 23, 2013, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/
terrapins-insider/wp/2013/04/23/acc-grant-of-rights-deal-might-weaken-accs-exit-
fee-lawsuit-against-maryland/, {https://perma.cc/MQ95-9Z6C}
(“The Big Ten, Pacific-12 and Big 12 also have grant-of-rights agreements, which give the conferences control of each school’s television rights, even if they choose to leave the conference.” (emphasis added)); Pete Thamel, N.C.A.A. Strife, and How to Ease It, N.Y. Times, Sept. 11, 2011, at SP4, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/sports/ncaafootball/ncaa-strife-could-be-eased-by-real-revenue-sharing.html,
{https://perma.cc/EN9L-6WMM} (“The Big Ten and Pac-12 members have signed
grants of rights, which basically give all of the television rights from each university’s
sports to the conference for a specified number of years. If a member switches con-
ferences, the rights cannot be transferred.” (emphasis added)).
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Also in Part IV is a discussion of some problems with GORs. I’ll just summarize:
1. It assumes all the schools put a huge value on generating revenue, well above any other concern. If that isn’t true, the GOR loses effectiveness (think UT compared to ISU, or ND vs anyone else). Basically, the coefficient of importance of that factor varies.
2. The various factors in the decision (money, exposure, etc) also vary, which can make the GOR ineffective. Say the media model changes and TV money plummets – the financial cost of violating the GOR goes way down.
3. GORs may not be enforceable, but it’s exactly this uncertainty that actually gives the GOR its value. Schools have to assume the worst. But if someone ever busts a GOR, then all of them lose value.
4. The GOR is a brute force financial threat but not all decisions are dominated by money. For example, a G5 would jump to a P5 no matter the short term cost.
Then he discusses the legal enforceability of GORs which I leave to the lawyers to discuss.
The sixth section suggests alternative approaches to prevent realignment:
1. Integrate athletics and academics, as the B10 has with the BTAA (formerly CIC).
2. Settle on a national championship format and stick with it.
Conferences therefore need to acknowledge and recognize the impact of
their consistent waffling on a national championship selection process.
The current CFP has an equilibrium at 5 power conference. If they expand to 8 teams, in one sense that alleviates financial pressure as all P5s get in. On the other hand, they are competing for the at-large bids again. 3 at-larges pushes for 4 conferences. 2 at-larges (G5 autobid, which becomes more likely with further realignment) pushes for 3 conferences. I think 8 teams and a new TV deal would likely drive to a P4 with a G5 autobid and 3 at-large bids.
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https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/college/indiana/2018/05/31/iu-basketball-purdue-notre-dame-here-acc-big-ten-challenge-matchups/662041002/
The B10/ACC challenge games are out:
Indiana at Duke
North Carolina at Michigan
Michigan State at Louisville
Nebraska at Clemson
Minnesota at Boston College
Syracuse at Ohio State
North Carolina State at Wisconsin
Purdue at Florida State
Virginia at Maryland
Rutgers at Miami
Virginia Tech at Penn State
Pitt at Iowa
Georgia Tech at Northwestern
Notre Dame at Illinois
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More unexpected ending, The Americans or Game 1?
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@Frug – Oh, definitely The Americans in the sense that they went into that finale where every single scenario (e.g. everyone dies to no one dies to everyone escapes to everyone goes to jail) was still possible. It actually ended perfectly within the context of the show.
Game 1 wasn’t surprising in that the Warriors are supposed to win. J.R. Smith thinking that the Cavs were up by 1 instead of tied on that last offensive rebound was hilarious (unless you’re a Cavs fan)… but typical J.R.
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But now we’ll never know for sure if Smith is really that inept or if he is actually a spy!
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http://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/story/3515413/north-american-2026-world-cup-bid-outscores-high-risk-morocco-fifa
The US+ bid for the World Cup greatly outscored the Moroccan bid when FIFA judged them. It doesn’t really mean anything, but it will just making the explaining much harder to do when FIFA votes for Morocco.
FIFA judged Morocco’s 2026 World Cup proposals to be “high risk” in three areas and offered significant praise for the North American bid, which outscored its rival by a wide margin in an inspection evaluation report published on Friday.
The joint bid from the United States, Canada and Mexico scored 4 out of 5, while Morocco scored 2.7 following FIFA inspections.
Morocco’s risks relate to stadiums, accommodation and transport. No part of the North America bid was flagged a high risk, and FIFA said it “has a clear lead” to advance the governing body’s mission to “push new boundaries in terms of sports-related technology and engagement” since stadiums and hotels already exist.
FIFA’s five-man panel could have disqualified Morocco had the North African country scored less than two overall, and less than two on key measures including stadiums.
The FIFA Council has to approve both candidates at a June 10 meeting in Moscow. The final vote of up to 207 member federations is on June 13 and the inspection task force scores can be ignored when making their decision.
…
While Morocco has said it needs to spend almost $16 billion on infrastructure for the 48-team World Cup, including building or renovating all 14 stadiums, North America does not require any tournament-specific building work.
“The amount of new infrastructure required for the Morocco 2026 bid to become reality cannot be overstated,” the bid evaluation task force said. “The Morocco 2026 bid and United 2026 bid represent two almost opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to the nature of their bids.”
The North Americans scored the only maximum 5 mark for its ticketing and hospitality plans, which helped drive a forecast revenue for the tournament of $14.3 billion, “significantly higher” than Morocco’s $7.2 billion.
However, the lowest mark out of 5 for either bid in each of nine categories is 2.0 for the North American bids’ projected organising costs which were driven up by having 16 stadiums instead of the minimum 12.
In 20 categories evaluated for risk, the North American bid had three medium-risk areas — government support, human rights and labor standards, and organizing costs — and 17 low risk. Morocco had the three high-risk sections, 10 medium risk — also including human rights and labor standards — and seven low risk.
…
Overall score: United bid 4.0, Morocco 2.7
Infrastructure
Stadiums: United bid 4.1, Morocco 2.3
Team facilities: United bid 3.7, Morocco 2.9
Accommodation: United bid 3.9, Morocco 2.6
Transport: United bid 4.3, Morocco 2.1
Telecommunications: United bid 4.0, Morocco 3.5
Fan Festival locations: United bid 3.6, Morocco 3.2
Commercial
Organising costs: United bid 2.0, Morocco 3.0
Media and marketing: United bid 4.9, Morocco 4.6
Ticketing and hospitality: United bid 5.0, Morocco 2.4
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B10 teams went 1-3 in their opening games. Only host MN won. The second games are today.
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IN easily won their second game in the baseball regional to stay alive. PU leads 14-3 in the 8th with a weather delay.
OSU somehow made it to a 3-3 tie in the bottom of the 13th before losing. UNCW had 19 hits to OSU’s 5, so it was pure luck OSU lasted that long.
At least the B10 won’t go 0fer.
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PU held on 14-4 to survive until tomorrow.
#7 seed FSU got swept out of their regional to continue their woeful postseason history. They’ve made the NCAA tournament 56 times (41 straight). They’ve hosted a regional a record 35 times. They’ve made the CWS 22 times. They have zero national titles despite making the championship game 3 times.
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Held on? NC A&T got stomped.
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Held on from my previous comment that they were up 14-3 in the 8th.
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Here is my Blue Sky B1G:
EAST
Army
Boston Coll
Navy
Penn St
Pitt
Rutgers
Syracuse
Uconn
W. Virginia
West Virginia
MIDWEST
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan St
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio St
Purdue
Wisconsin
SOUTH
Clemson
Duke
Fla State
Ga Tech
Louisville
Maryland
Memphis
Miami, Fla
No Carolina
Virginia
WEST
Air Force
Arizona
Arizona St
Colorado
Kansas
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
TCU
Texas
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That 2nd West Virginia is not their JV team. I meant to put Notre Dame in there.
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The basis of all stable college conferences is cultural similarity, which is based on geographic proximity, and which results in commonly held academic and athletic goals and values. This list is a mishmash of incompatible cultures and has no possible hope of realization. Rather than “Blue Sky,” I would label it “Nightmare from Hell.”
Everyone interested in college conference realignment should read “The Nine Nations of North America,” by Joel Garreau, or “American Nations…,” by Colin Woodward, or even “Battlecry of Freedom,” by James McPherson. These books explain in detail the cultural basis of the existing college conferences, why they have the schools they do, and why schemes like the one above are anathema to the people, faculty, students, alumni, boosters et al, involved. And they do hate these kinds of schemes. Won/lost records, TV ratings are simply irrelevant to the issue of realignment.
Arguably, the current B1G is already too big, and lacks the cultural uniformity it had before PSU came aboard. But, all the additions were large, flagship, land grant schools, and that might be enough justification to accept schools outside the Midwest. Gordon Gee understood the issues, and his opinion that Kansas and Missouri would be the best new (and very last) additions is probably correct. Oklahoma is a cultural bridge too far, and Okie St, Texas and the rest of the B12 (except maybe KSU and ISU) are beyond the pale culturally.
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bob sykes,
“The basis of all stable college conferences is cultural similarity, which is based on geographic proximity, and which results in commonly held academic and athletic goals and values.”
That was the basis for forming them in the early days of conferences, but things have changed. When most of the conferences formed, long distance travel was done by train and people rarely moved to other parts of the country. Regional differences are still strong, but they aren’t quite as strong as they used to be. And travel has certainly changed. As for academic similarities, I think we tend to let the B10 color our views too much. The P12 (Stanford vs OrSU), B12 (UT vs KSU), SEC (MsSU vs Vandy) and ACC (UL vs Duke) all have tremendous ranges in their academic goals and values.
“Everyone interested in college conference realignment should read “The Nine Nations of North America,” by Joel Garreau, or “American Nations…,” by Colin Woodward, or even “Battlecry of Freedom,” by James McPherson.”
Always good suggestions.
“These books explain in detail the cultural basis of the existing college conferences, why they have the schools they do, and why schemes like the one above are anathema to the people, faculty, students, alumni, boosters et al, involved. And they do hate these kinds of schemes. Won/lost records, TV ratings are simply irrelevant to the issue of realignment.”
They explain it in part, but not necessarily in detail. There are a bunch of timing, political and now financial reasons that aren’t related to culture. UMI kept ND out of the B10 over 100 years ago. MSU was one of several viable options in the 50s but wouldn’t get in today. UT asked about joining the B10 soon after PSU did but the B10 had declared a 5-year moratorium on expansion.
“Arguably, the current B1G is already too big, and lacks the cultural uniformity it had before PSU came aboard. But, all the additions were large, flagship, land grant schools, and that might be enough justification to accept schools outside the Midwest.”
It may be too big, but the changes in what factors matter helped drive it. Having multiple schools in IN, IL and MI meant that the B10 needed to expand the footprint for demographic and BTN reasons. It used to be a pure positive to have so many schools close together, but a downside emerged as the world changed. Cultural diversity is the price the B10 paid to not have to cut anybody and to be prepared for changing demographics.
“Gordon Gee understood the issues, and his opinion that Kansas and Missouri would be the best new (and very last) additions is probably correct. Oklahoma is a cultural bridge too far, and Okie St, Texas and the rest of the B12 (except maybe KSU and ISU) are beyond the pale culturally.”
While Frank reminds us to think like a college president, Gee may go too far. KU and MO are closer culturally and geographically, but OU adds a lot more value than MO. The B10 would probably be better off financially not expanding than adding KU and MO. Gee ignores the athletic value in his statement.
I say all this not to argue in favor of B10 expansion (I’ve always been against it), but just to point out that culture isn’t everything anymore.
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Rich,
“Here is my Blue Sky B1G”
Isn’t it more of a new level of NCAA, like if the P5 split from I-A, minus the SEC? It’s 40 schools. Would you really want the B10 to have 40 schools? I assume you are keeping play within the divisions except for the postseason, but having to beat out 39 other schools to win a title?
I like the Midwest division and would love to re-establish that if the B10 ever expands to 20 schools, but I have no use for a 40 team conference. That’s a league like the NFL.
My B20 (if the B10 has to get that big):
Midwest – OSU, MI, MSU, IN, PU, IL, NW, WI, MN, IA
Other – PSU, RU, UMD, UVA, VT, ND, NE, OU, KU, UT
I doubled up in VA to draw a firm boundary and prevent overlap with the SEC there. I considered UNC, but that would require complete commitment to the east and I’d rather also go west since we have NE on board already.
Football would be a little unbalanced with PSU, NE, ND, UT, OU and VT all on one side versus OSU, MI, MSU, WI and IA, but those would be good CCGs.
Smaller versions seem more likely, though.
My B16:
OSU, MI, MSU, IN, PU, PSU, RU, UMD, IL, NW, WI, MN, IA, NE, OU, KU
OU provides another football brand, a true rival for NE and better access to TX for recruiting. KU provides a much needed hoops brand, increasing the odds that the B10 eventually wins a hoops championship again. Play 3 locked rivals and 6 rotating games (50%) rather than divisions.
I think 18 would be tough for the B10. Best I can do:
My B18 (if the B10 has to get that big):
OSU, MI, MSU, IN, PU, PSU, RU, UMD, IL, NW, WI, MN, IA, NE, OU, KU, UT, ND
East – OSU, MI, MSU, IN, PU, PSU, RU, UMD, ND
West – IL, NW, WI, MN, IA, NE, OU, KU, UT
Play 8 division games to decide the division winners. Play 1 crossover game each except for the 4 new additions which are allowed to play an old rival instead (KSU, OkSU, TT, USC) instead. A second crossover can also be played as another OOC game since crossovers don’t count towards division standings.
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I want the 40 school league because the divisions I laid out go back to the more traditional set ups. Old rivals would play more often. I have little interest in Illinois playing Rutgers, for example. But Illinois playing Ohio St every year? Yes. Just one example.
Btw, ideally I would have TAMU instead of TCU & Missouri instead of Ok St. As far as cultural fit is concerned, brought up by others, the long arc of cultural fit history bends toward money. This league would have the money from B1G, Big XII and a not small chunk of Pac12 cash.
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Rich,
“I want the 40 school league because the divisions I laid out go back to the more traditional set ups. Old rivals would play more often. I have little interest in Illinois playing Rutgers, for example. But Illinois playing Ohio St every year? Yes. Just one example.”
I appreciate that, believe me. It just seems like you could’ve said you want the old Big Ten back with the newer 4 in more appropriate regional conferences of 10. There isn’t really a need to add 26 schools if dropping 4 (or adding just 6) could reach a similar goal. I think you’d actually enjoy 4 conferences of 10 more than 1 conference of 40. Think how hard a conference title would become to win in any sport. Many schools would go years between any conference title.
You’d also only have 1 CCG when you could have multiples. Or were you assuming you could have a 2-round playoff for the conference title in football? How many teams make the conference tournament in other sports? The top 12 in hoops?
“Btw, ideally I would have TAMU instead of TCU & Missouri instead of Ok St.”
You might as well put them in then. It’s your dream scenario.
“As far as cultural fit is concerned, brought up by others, the long arc of cultural fit history bends toward money.”
It does. I’ve said so elsewhere.
“This league would have the money from B1G, Big XII and a not small chunk of Pac12 cash.”
But the B10 already pays more per school than those leagues. Would this growth add a lot per school for the current B10 members?
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I wouldn’t put it past the Big Ten to make a play for Colorado in the next decade if the Pac-12’s relatively lower revenue makes it vulnerable. Colorado is an AAU school in a major market with a critical mass of Big Ten alums and even in a state that’s contiguous with the current conference footprint
While we are talking about alumni bases, it is worth noting that while the Big Ten may send a lot of alumni to Colorado, the reverse isn’t necessarily true. 40% of Colorado’s out of state alumni live in Southern California alone, so the I suspect the revenue difference between the Big Ten and the PAC would have to be enormous for the Buffaloes to seriously consider jumping.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/06/04/pac-12-passes-rule-requiring-6-wins-for-bowl-eligibility/35690261/
The P12 passed a rule requiring a team to win 6 games in the regular season to make a bowl. That means they won’t let a 5-7 team go to a bowl based on APR. No P12 schools has ever used that rule to get a bowl slot, and now they can’t.
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#14 MN (2-0) advanced to the super regional in Corvallis to face #3 OrSU. OrSU played great in their regional, winning 9-3, 14-1, 12-0, so MN has a very tough task ahead of them.
IN lost in the finals of their regional (2-2, LWWL). PU lost in the semifinals of theirs (1-2, LWL). OSU got swept out of theirs (0-2).
That’s a reasonable performance based on their seedings.
National seeds eliminated in the regionals:
2. Stanford
7. FSU
8. UGA
10. Clemson
12. ECU
15. Coastal Carolina
16. NCSU
#1 UF and #4 Ole Miss are both still playing elimination games. Ole Miss trails 3-2 in the 8th versus TN Tech. UF and FAU play tomorrow due to weather.
3-seeds (out of 4 in their regional) advancing: UW and CSU-Fullerton, and they face each other in a super regional. FAU still has to face UF in an elimination game.
2-seeds advancing: Auburn, Duke, SC, Vandy, MsSU.
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UF won today but Ole Miss lost to TN Tech last night. That’s 8 of 16 national seeds that failed to make the super-regionals. 2 3-seeds and 6 2-seeds (TN Tech was the 6th) advanced instead.
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The Sun Belt becomes the 3rd conference, after CUSA and the WCC to adopt late season flex scheduling to create more matchups between higher rated conference foes.
http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/the-sun-belt-is-the-latest-to-alter-its-scheduling-in-order-to-enhance-its-ncaa-tournament-chances/
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It’s a smart move for the non-power conferences. The WCC isn’t using flex scheduling according to the article, but it is making things easier for the top teams in the tournament.
The next move would be to see some of these conferences do flex scheduled OOC games to end the season. That way you don’t guarantee your teams more losses plus you might get more national exposure. The SB is playing 10 games in division plus 6 crossovers, then flex scheduling 4 more games (home and homes against the 2 other teams in their pod). Do you really need up to 4 games against the same school in one season? I think fans might prefer SB1 vs CUSA 1, etc while still getting all the SOS benefits.
I could see both the B10 and P12 considering flex scheduling a couple of conference games. That could help some bubble teams each year.
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Which non-power conferences make natural parings for such OOC flex scheduling? Could 3 or more conferences participate in such a scheduling arrangement?
Would 4 school late season OOC ‘tournaments’ be feasible among non-power conferences matching all respective 1st place, 2nd place, 3rd place and 4th place schools from each participating conference in 4 separate (one each per conference) locations?
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jog267,
“Which non-power conferences make natural parings for such OOC flex scheduling?”
I assume they’d mostly do it regionally, but maybe the better ones would consider doing it more nationally. You need conferences of a similar strength. I’ll leave it to bigger hoops fans than me to suggest pairings that make sense. There are over 30 conferences and I don’t know much about many of them.
“Could 3 or more conferences participate in such a scheduling arrangement?”
Sure, it would just be a little more of a hassle to plan.
“Would 4 school late season OOC ‘tournaments’ be feasible among non-power conferences matching all respective 1st place, 2nd place, 3rd place and 4th place schools from each participating conference in 4 separate (one each per conference) locations?”
They could do it if they didn’t play in a tournament earlier (you only get 1 per season).
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https://frshoopz.com/cbb/pac-12-considering-conference-scheduling-change-for-18-19-season/
The P12 is looking at something similar.
The Pac-12 is now considering a conference scheduling change for the 18-19 season, a source told FRS Sports.
…
Based on the results of the poll conducted by the league’s head coaches, the Pac-12 will have “travel partner rankings” based on the average of what the two seeded teams were.
According to a source, the rankings are listed below:
1. USC/UCLA
2. Oregon/Oregon State
3. Arizona/Arizona State
4. Washington/Washington State
5. Stanford/Cal
6. Colorado/Utah
Under the proposed method, the league is sticking with its travel partners and would have the top two programs listed above (UCLA, USC) play teams ranked two through four twice next season with stand alone games against Stanford, Cal, Colorado, and Utah.
This is similar to the model used by the Atlantic 10, which annually ensures that its top teams play as many times as possible during the regular season.
A separate source told FRS Sports that the Pac-12’s head coaches have a conference call on Friday to discuss this matter further.
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The P12 has had a lot of turnover in school CEOs since Larry Scott was hired and the P12N was agreed upon. What impact might that have when their rights come up for bid again in a few years?
If you’re monitoring the conference oversight groups — the boss’s bosses, so to speak — there are two relevant categories.
* Three current presidents were part of the CEO group that hired Scott in 2009: Arizona State’s Michael Crow, Oregon State’s Ed Ray and UCLA’s Gene Block.
* Four current presidents were part of the group that approved the Pac-12 Networks strategy: Crow, Ray, Block and Colorado’s Phil DiStefano.
But that’s it. The Pac-12 Networks were created seven years ago, yet eight schools have changed, or are in the process of changing, presidents since that point.
…
Using Scott’s hiring (spring of 2009) as the cutoff point for the 10 continuing members, the totals are as follows:
Men’s basketball coaches: 22
Presidents/chancellors: 28
Athletic directors: 28
Football coaches: 32
…
The presidents run the show, let’s not forget, and the majority of sitting/incoming CEOs did not hire Scott or sign off on the Pac-12 Networks’ model.
They come into power not during a period of bliss but with frustration swirling … with fellow presidents and several athletic directors making less-than-flattering comments about the financial state of the conference.
To a greater extent than the dwindling number of CEOs with personal stake in the networks’ success, the newcomers might be more willing to ask tough questions during the next round of Tier I negotiations … as opposed to simply signing off on whatever strategy Scott and his consultants suggest.
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http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gridiron-365/os-sp-college-insider-aac-aresco-20180603-story.html
Despite its roots in the Big East, the AAC is becoming a southern conference as it moves its HQ from Providence to Dallas.
OS: You broke some news last week when you said the league is moving its headquarters from Providence, R.I., to Dallas once the current lease is up in two years. Why Dallas?
Aresco: “The thinking behind it is simply most of our schools tend to be in that area and it would make travel easier. The airport in Dallas is one of the best situated in the country. You can get almost everywhere directly. Another big factor is that we have a school there in the marketplace in SMU and that means people are constantly coming in and out and you can go over and meet them and say hello at games and you can’t do that here anymore. The travel burden on the conference staff and the people coming here is significant. We’re about as far away from everybody that you can be except for UConn. From Dallas, you can get almost anywhere in our conference from a half hour to about two hours.
“Dallas has also become one of the epicenters of college sports, if not the epicenter of college football. You’ve got not only the College Football Playoff [offices] but you have the Big 12, Conference USA, Southland Conference, the Cotton Bowl there. … The geographical football of the conference has changed. Dallas in many ways makes all the sense in the world. Ultimately it’s a growing market and it would be better for the conference to be situated there.”
Obviously Dallas is a major hub airport and Providence doesn’t make much sense anymore for them. But to say that most of their schools are in that area? I think UConn, Temple, ECU, UC, UCF, USF and others might disagree. They would be more central and perhaps get more coverage in a smaller market like Memphis. I doubt the Dallas sports media has much time to spend on the AAC even with SMU in it.
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http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2018/06/2018-cfb-early-season-selections-notes.html
Matt Sarzyniak with some thoughts on the released football schedules for this year. Things in bold are links in the post that take you to more detailed posts about that (B10) or press releases (ESPN, Fox).
Big Ten
* My impression was that ESPN and FOX Sports were the only folks that would end up airing Friday night Big Ten games. Will need to check as to whether the conference and/or Michigan St. had to approve the Utah St. game airing on BTN.
* After the opening weekend, FOX Sports took the remaining weeknight games.
* Using Rutgers at Ohio St. for an early way to clear OSU’s BTN intraconference game commitment was a good idea. If the Tulane game on 9/22 ends up being the Buckeyes 2nd BTN game, they wouldn’t be required to appear on the network for the rest of the season.
* The FOX Sports release (linked in the FOX Sports area) touts 136 games across FOX, FSN, FS1 and BTN. After subtracting out bowl games, conference championships and other conferences, 71 regular season games are available to FOX, FS1 and BTN. This lines up with the 99 Big Ten controlled games and subtracting off the conference championship game and 27 games for ABC & ESPN Networks.
…
ESPN Networks
…
* Selections remaining for specific conferences:
Big 12: 16
Excludes Big 12 Championship
Big Ten: 17
Pac-12: 14
…
FOX Sports
* Missouri St. at Oklahoma St. is a curious, and underwhelming, choice to start the FS1 schedule. There’s no other way around that. Same with the first FOX primetime game with Akron at Nebraska. I suppose I can excuse the latter because it is going up against Michigan at Notre Dame & Louisville at Alabama.
…
* That large space between games on Black Friday on FOX I believe is to carry the 3rd place & championship games from the Las Vegas Invitational, involving Michigan St., UCLA, Texas and North Carolina.
* Selections remaining for specific conferences:
Big 12: 24
Big Ten: 13-16
Variable count
Pac-12: 13
Big 12 and Pac-12 counts exclude their respective conference championships.
* My overall accounting for FOX Sports using the number of 136 games they counted across FOX, FS1, FSN and BTN:
2 bowl games
2 conference championship games
4 Big 12 member retained games on FSN
22 Pac-12 games
35 Big 12 games
71 Big Ten games
24-27 for FOX & FS1
44-47 for BTN
The B10 link goes here: http://mattsarzsports.com/Contract/GameList/BigTen/2018#.WxhAtSAh1PZ
The page lists games the B10 controls with current TV info. It also reminds us of the TV deal rules.
ESPN Rights Notes
27 total games.
All intraconference games must air on ABC, ESPN or ESPN2.
Non-conference games can air on ESPNU.
At least six games in primetime on ABC or ESPN.
FOX Sports Rights Notes
24-27 total games to air on FOX & FS1.
Up to nine games per season will air in primetime
FOX will air the conference championship game every season.
FOX Sports will have the first choice of the weeks they want the top choice of games.
Every Big Ten school must make two appearances on BTN. At least one of those appearances must be from a conference game.
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Whitman ‘increasingly confident’ in adding D-I hockey program
https://247sports.com/college/illinois/Article/Illinois-Fighting-Illini-athletics-director-Josh-Whitman-increasingly-confident-in-adding-Division-I-hockey-program-118843301
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He’s being smart about it, too.
A new hockey arena would also house at least four other programs: men’s and women’s gymnastics, women’s volleyball and wrestling — that currently are in Huff Hall or Kenney Gym, facilities that provide challenges. The facility would include a permanent, separate volleyball and wrestling practice facilities as well as three hockey rinks (one for public use, one for practice and one for games). To add a men’s hockey program, Illinois would need to add another women’s program to comply with Title IX requirements. Whitman said it’s not clear what that sport could be but acknowledged that women’s hockey would be under consideration since the athletics department wouldn’t have to create a new facility for that sports, unlike lacrosse or another sport.
“To me it’s about what hockey and what the building that hockey would require means for this athletic program and more broadly what it means for our community,” Whitman said. “I see this as an opportunity for us to overnight to change the opportunity that is currently existing for volleyball, for wrestling and for gymnastics. …We think that a wholesale solution, a new building, is the right answer. Generating the resources to build a new building for those sports is very, very challenging. We think that using hockey to drive that plan is the right answer. That allows us to create a new solution for those sports that I think otherwise would be very hard to come by.”
Whitman also thinks hockey can be a boon to the downtown area, which is about a mile north of State Farm Center and Memorial Stadium. He said hockey, which hosts Friday and Saturday games, could drive business for area hotels, bars and restaurants.
“It mooves us outside of our normal university bubble,” Whitman said. “It allows us to extend a hand to the Champaign-Urbana communities.”
Hockey should thrive at UIUC and it would be great to add another women’s team, too. That would make 5 women’s teams.
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Good info. Demographics drive lots of conference and media considerations and actions. Data does tend to support/reinforce the MD and RU add to the big10.
And…..Welcome back!
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https://www.landof10.com/iowa/iowa-ad-gary-barta-discusses-potential-reduction-of-big-ten-football-games
Gary Barta talking about B10 scheduling. He denied there has been any discussion of dropping to 8 games, but then he said some other things of interest.
Since 2016, when the league expanded its football schedule to nine games, Big Ten officials protected annual cross-divisional matchups pitting programs of similar profile for six consecutive years. Those matchups include Iowa-Penn State, Nebraska-Ohio State, Wisconsin-Michigan, Northwestern-Michigan State, Minnesota-Maryland and Illinois-Rutgers. Indiana-Purdue is permanently protected.
Aside from Indiana-Purdue, those regular matchups could end beginning in 2022 with a true rotation among the other schools.
If the blogger/reporter paid attention, he’d know that the scheduling is supposed to be built around a 6-year cycle of locked crossover games and then it rotates among the tiers.
“In crossovers, we look forward to playing great teams like Ohio State, Michigan and whoever else we get matched up,” Barta said.
“We always have crossovers, and we’re constantly trying to come up with the right formula for crossovers.”
The B10 came up with the “formula” several years ago. Did they not bother to explain their parity-based scheduling to the ADs or did the ADs not pay attention?
The Big Ten began divisional play in 2011 with the competitively equal Legends and Leaders Divisions. In 2014, it switched to a geographic model with an East-West divide. Although the league’s East Division towers over the West in prestige and perception, there are no plans for revisions.
“We committed to the East-West,” Barta said. “I like the East-West. Everybody likes the East-West. Clearly, things go in trends. But, no, there’s been no discussion about going away from East-West.
“One of the things that I feel strongly about is Hawkeye fans love to play against Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, the border states. How great is that for the fans? I won’t support anything that will go away from that.
“We talk about how we can make ourselves better but we’ve never, I’ve not been in any conversations where we talked about changing the makeup.”
That’s a shame, but not unexpected. Especially at the AD level where ticket sales are so important. Perhaps the East ADs would have a different view given their tougher division.
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http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/m-track/recaps/060718aaa.html
An OSU jumper won the men’s long jump NCAA title for OSU’s first men’s T&F title in any event in 25 years. It’s amazing to me that OSU has been that bad at track and field for so long, but in the past 60 years they’ve only won 7 individual titles in men’s outdoor T&F. I know northern schools are at a disadvantage for track athletes, but still.
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Somewhere, Jesse Owens is smiling.
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Just for context, 5 men from 5 different B10 schools (1 each from OSU, MI, WI, MN, PSU) won individual events this year. If just 2 titles per year is typical, that’s still 48 titles won by B10 athletes without OSU getting one of them. It just seems strange to see such a large gap in time.
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The women combined for 1 title this year (WI).
Meanwhile, MN baseball needs to win tonight to get a rubber match tomorrow to make the CWS. Earlier UNC became the first team to advance to the CWS.
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Unfortunately MN got swept, keeping the B10 out of the CWS yet again. Better luck next year.
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For the next 6 year cycle, I think you’ll see locked
OSU-U of I
UMich-UMinny
PSU-NU
UNL-UMD
UW-RU
Iowa-MSU
That way, traditional rivalries would be played more often and the top teams get easier cross-overs (except for PSU and Iowa, but that’s because PSU, MSU, Iowa, and NU are in the middle tier in their divisions).
Of the western schools, UW and NU draw the most heavily from the East Coast so being locked against East Coast teams is a good thing (though NU would prefer visiting greater NYC or greater DC).
OSU/UMich and UNL/UW would have much easier paths to the B10 title game, which I think Delaney would like to see.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23716378/college-football-toughest-nonconference-schedules
Chris Low at ESPN ranked the toughest OOC schedules.
But as far as the 10 toughest Power 5 nonconference schedules, only three of the five leagues are represented. The Big Ten and SEC are noticeably absent. The ACC leads the way with four of the top five toughest slates out of conference and five of the top 10. The Pac-12 is right on the ACC’s heels with four of the 10, and Texas is the lone Big 12 representative.
1. Pitt – Albany, PSU, UCF, ND*
2. USC – UNLV, UT, ND*
3. FSU – Samford, NIU, ND, UF*
4. Clemson – Furman, TAMU, GA Southern, SC*
5. GT – Alcorn St, USF, BGSU, UGA*
6. ASU – UTSA, MSU, SDSU
7. Stanford – SDSU, UC-Davis, ND
8. UT – UMD, Tulsa, USC
9. UL – AL, IN St, WKU, UK*
10. UCLA – UC, OU, Fresno St
* – not in September
I have several issues here:
1. He’s right that he didn’t include any B10 or SEC teams, but it should be pointed out that the B10 plays 9 conference games and avoids I-AA games. That’s a lot different than the SEC.
2. Kudos to the 4 P12 and 1 B12 team that also play 9 conference games.
3. Are these really the 10 toughest OOC schedules? There are a lot of I-AA and weak G5 games on that list. Take Clemson for example. I-AA, 7-6 TAMU with a new coach, 2-10 GA Southern and SC the week after playing Duke. How tough is that?
4. 3 B10 schools plays 2 P5 teams (incl. ND):
OSU – OrSU, TCU, Tulane
NW – Duke, Akron, ND*
PU – EMU, MO, BC
They may not be top 10 OOC schedules, but they’re pretty solid. They seem equivalent to several that are listed to me.
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https://www.facebook.com … /TheBrettMcMurphy/posts/1962031377154250
According to Brett McMurphy, the NCAA is going to add 3 more bowls for 2020. I gave a split link so the post wouldn’t show up here (remove the ” … “). This includes some news that impacts the B10.
The Competition Committee’s recommendations, expected to be approved Tuesday by the NCAA’s Football Oversight Committee, has also designated the maximum number of bowl tie-ins per conference. These numbers were based on each conference’s average number of bowl-eligible teams in the past four seasons (2014-17).
The number of proposed bowls allowed per conference beginning in 2020, the start of the new bowl cycle, will be as follows (the Power 5 tie-ins do not include one New Year’s 6 bid for each league):
League Maximum bowl tie-ins
ACC 10 (not including ACC’s Orange Bowl bid)
SEC 10 (not including SEC’s Sugar Bowl bid)
Big Ten 8 (not including Big Ten’s Rose Bowl bid)
Pac-12 7 (not including Pac-12’s Rose Bowl bid)
Big 12 6 (not including Big 12’s Sugar Bowl bid)
American 7
Conference USA 7
Mid-American 6
Mountain West 6
Sun Belt 5
Army & BYU each can secure its own automatic bowl tie-in, but the remaining independents (New Mexico State, UMass and Liberty) must hope for an at-large spot from a conference that can’t fill all of its allotments in a specific year. Notre Dame remains part of the ACC’s bowl lineup.
Here’s where those easier schedules in the south help out (8 games, I-AA games). Max bowls per conference, not counting the NY6 tie-ins:
SEC – 10/14 = 0.714
ACC – 10/15 = 0.667
B12 – 6/10 = 0.600
P12 – 7/12 = 0.583
B10 – 8/14 = 0.571
B10 bowl eligible teams by year:
2014 – 10
2015 – 10
2016 – 10
2017 – 8 (2 5-7 teams that went 2-7 in B10 play)
Average = 9.5
SEC bowl eligible teams by year:
2014 – 12
2015 – 10
2016 – 12
2017 – 10 (if you ignore Ole Miss’s NCAA issue)
Average = 11
The 9 game schedule and lack of I-AA games may have cost the B10 a bowl slot in that next window.
* The three new bowls? Chicago and Myrtle Beach are near locks to host two of the new bowl games.
The Chicago bowl, to be played at Wrigley Field, will feature the Big Ten against the ACC, sources said. To add the Chicago bowl in 2020, the Big Ten is expected to end its affiliation with the San Francisco Bowl (formerly Foster Farms Bowl) after 2019.
Great, another outdoor game at a baseball park. I’m sure the weather won’t ever be an issue. Playing the ACC, too, just like in the Pinstripe and Detroit bowls. I’m not surprised to see the SF bowl go away for the B10. That’s an expensive trip for a mediocre bowl game and still leaves the Rose and Holiday bowls to face the P12. Still, the SF bowl is on the 5/6/7 tier of B10 bowls now. Will the Wrigley game be in that mix or join the 8/9 games (Detroit, Dallas)?
* Which conferences increased their bowl tie-ins in the new bowl cycle? The SEC (hello Vegas!), Pac-12, Conference USA, Mid-American and Mountain West all will be able to add another bowl affiliation in 2020, compared with their current allotments.
The Pac-12 will get an additional bowl bid in two years even though just last week the league announced it would prohibit any conference teams with 5-7 records from accepting bowl bids. That should be fun. …
* Vegas, baby, Vegas! As I reported last week, the Las Vegas Bowl will feature the Pac-12 vs. another Power 5 school in Vegas’ new NFL stadium in 2020, ending the bowl’s 19-year run with the Mountain West at Sam Boyd Stadium. It’s not a done deal, but sources said it’s “very likely” the Pac-12’s opponent will be from the SEC. Since it’s Vegas, I’d bet on the SEC. I’m told the matchup could be the Pac-12’s second or third selection vs. the SEC’s third or fourth selection and the game obviously would be moved off the first Saturday of bowl season.
I don’t think we mentioned this last week. P12/SEC bowls are rare and LV should be a great site for a bowl.
* What makes sense (so it will never happen): What if the Group of 5 designated that the four Group of 5 conference champions that didn’t advance to the New Year’s 6 bowl meet annually in two bowls each year? They could be paired based on highest rankings (1 vs. 2, 3 vs. 4 or 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3) or geography.
It does sound like a good idea, so of course it won’t happen.
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Jon Wilner looks deeper at the P12 bowl picture going forward based on McMurphy’s report.
* The second development took the form of a conversation last week with one of the Hotline’s most trusted sources:
Officials throughout the Pac-12 are concerned about the fate of the conference’s bowl partnerships when the next contract cycle begins in 2020.
The current pairings are lacking compared to those of the SEC and Big Ten, largely because of the paucity of high-level bowls in the west.
…
“Everybody feels like we need more bowls and better bowls,” the source said. “We don’t want to get left behind.”
To that extent, the ascent of Las Vegas couldn’t come at a better time:
The Raiders’ $1.8 billion stadium is expected to be ready for the 2020 season, with both state and local officials putting immense resources behind the drive to attract major sporting events.
Combine the first-class venue with top-tier payouts and a destination city for fans, and the Las Vegas Bowl would have the resources to become a marquee matchup — perhaps the No. 2 bowl in the western half of the country.
Let’s assume he wasn’t counting the Fiesta Bowl. It’s hard to imagine the LV Bowl replacing a CFP bowl any time soon, but I suppose it could eventually. The gambling fears make me doubt it happens soon.
Don’t be surprised if the next round of bowl negotiations results in Vegas jumping into the second slot in the Pac-12 pecking order, ahead of the Alamo and the Holiday bowls.
Such a scenario would instantly add heft to the conference’s postseason.
Consider this potential lineup:
1. Rose vs. Big Ten
2. Las Vegas vs. SEC
3. Alamo vs. Big 12
4. Holiday vs. Big Ten
5. Sun vs. ACC
6. San Francisco vs. Big Ten/Mountain West/TBD
7. Cactus vs. Big 12
If the Holiday is your No. 4, that’s a fairly strong rotation, and there could be an eighth bowl added to the lineup.
But to make it work, to maximize impact, the SEC would have to deliver a top-shelf team.
A repeat of the Foster Farms Bowl arrangement with the Big Ten, which sent a stream of basketball schools, wouldn’t work … and assuredly wouldn’t happen.
Let’s look at that from all sides:
First, the B10 reportedly won’t renew the SF bowl so scratch that part out.
Current P12 bowls:
1. Rose vs. Big Ten 1
2. Alamo vs. Big 12 2
3. Holiday vs. Big Ten 4
4. San Francisco vs. Big Ten 6 (part of the B10’s 5/6/7 pool)
5. Sun vs. ACC 4
6. Las Vegas vs. MWC 1
7. Cactus vs. Big 12 5
Moving LV up to the #2 P12 slot would slide the P12’s team down in all the other bowls. Would the B10, B12 and ACC be okay with that? Perhaps the Holiday becomes part of the 5/6/7 pool instead of a tier above it? The ACC can’t like pitting their #4 against #5 from the P12 considering how many more ACC teams make bowls.
One other note McMurphy gave was that the P12 could add another bowl game (7 + Rose). So where is the 8th bowl?
If we expand our survey of the Pac-12’s postseason future, let’s not dismiss the potential for a bowl game at the Rams’ new venue in Inglewood, although that’s a tricky situation because of the Rose.
Two games within 20 miles of each other, in a five- or six-day span? Not sure how that would play.
It seems unnecessary. Who would play in it? I could see it hosting the NCG in the future though.
This ties in with the financial article I linked below. Bowl revenue is one place the P12 can look to gain in the future. It won’t be a huge jump, but every bit helps.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/06/12/panic-pac-12-conference-quickly-falls-behind-rivals/686880002/
Someone other than Jon Wilner talking about concerns in the P12 over finances.
Headline: “Panic in the Pac-12 as conference quickly falls behind rivals”
I think panic is way too strong, especially since the story shows no indications of it. Typical clickbait headline.
The Pac-12 Conference is projected to fall far behind other Power 5 conferences over the next five years in revenue-sharing and won’t even reach $38 million in payouts per school until 2023, according to budget documents recently provided by Pac-12 member Washington State.
By comparison, the Big Ten is expected to provide payouts to schools this year that exceed $51 million. Even the Atlantic Coast Conference soon is expected to rocket past $40 million after previously ranking last in school payouts among the Power 5.
…
“I think if you look at the overall athletic budgets of the top 25 largest (public) athletic budgets in the country, I think the Pac-12 only has two schools that are even on that list,” Washington State President Kirk Schulz told USA TODAY Sports. “I do think it’s harder to compete for coaches. It’s harder to build facilities. It’s harder to do the things we would like to do with less revenue coming in compared to (other leagues). I do think it puts us at a disadvantage.”
Some Pac-12 school officials recently have grumbled dissatisfaction about the payout disparity and accepted that it wouldn’t improve dramatically until around 2023-24, when the league’s current TV contracts expire with ESPN and Fox. The recent budget projections from WSU put the next five years into stark specific terms.
This year, the payout estimate is $31.5 million. It then is projected to go up incrementally to $32.7 million in fiscal year 2019, $35.3 million in 2021 and $38.1 million in 2023, according to the payout projection range confirmed by WSU officials.
…
Every other Power 5 league either has exceeded the $40 million payout mark already or is projected to get there in a year or two at most, with contract terms that are expected to increase that amount annually.
“As I told our fans, we’ve got to stop worrying what the Pac-12 is providing to the conference and start doing some of our own creative things to bring in additional revenue,” Schulz said.
…
Schulz doesn’t blame league leadership for the league’s position and said Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott “continues to do a great job for our conference.” Instead, he noted the cyclical nature of the revenue landscape for conferences, which make most of their money from media networks broadcasting their football and men’s basketball games.
For example, in 2013-2014, the Pac-12’s $374 million in total revenue ranked first in the Power 5. But then the market spiraled upward. At the same time, the Pac-12’s television venture, the Pac-12 Networks, failed to meet financial expectations after battling distribution challenges.
…
Other conferences still have had bigger percentage increases since then and now have much rosier trajectories. The Southeastern Conference reported an average payout of about $41 million for fiscal year 2017. In the ACC, recent payouts have ranged from $25 million to $31 million. But that is expected to increase significantly after next year, when the ACC and ESPN launch the ACC Network. Florida State athletic director Stan Wilcox said at a university board of trustees meeting last year that the average payout is projected to increase by $10 million to $15 million after 2019, which would put payouts above $40 million.
“They’re saying this network should have the same kind of return that the SEC Network has had in their first couple of years,” Wilcox said then.
In the Big 12, the league recently announced an average distribution of $36.5 million for fiscal year 2018. Unlike other conferences, the Big 12 payout figure doesn’t include individual schools’ separate media rights deals for some games not selected by its big broadcast partners. Those separate deals boost those members’ revenues even more and is almost $20 million more at Texas alone, Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby said at league meetings on June 1.
Bowlsby also said his league is projected to reach about $40 million per school next year, not including the schools’ separate media deals.
“We have escalators in several of our revenue streams, and so it could be that or more,” Bowlsby said.
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That financial gap is significant, though.
Click to access 2017-06-X-14.pdf
Let’s use UM’s athletic budget for this year as an example (next year’s is due any day).
B10 payout – $51.1M (28%)
Tickets – $46.4M
Donations – $37.5M
Other – $47.5M
Total – $182.4M
Other than USC, I doubt any P12 school can even come close to matching UM’s tickets sales and donations. Football accounts for over 85% of those sales at UM (>$40M annually) and nobody in the P12 comes close to that. Football also generates most of the seating donations ($30M) and much of the other (concessions, parking, merchandise sales, etc). It’s hard to see how P12 schools could jack up those areas much compared to B10 schools.
Now let’s use the articles numbers from WSU:
2018 – $31.5M
2019 – $32.7M
2021 – $35.3M
2023 – $38.1M
That’s growth of 3.9% per year ($1.2M growing to ~$1.4M). B10 distributions have been growing faster than that in absolute terms. The 4% rate seems reasonable, though. Let’s use that for the B10 to get a guesstimate at future payouts:
2018 – $51.1M (+$19.6M)
2019 – $53.1M (+$20.4M)
2020 – $55.3M (+$21.3M)
2021 – $57.5M (+$22.2M)
2022 – $59.8M (+$23.1M)
2023 – $62.8M (+$24.7M)
That’s a $130.3M deficit for the P12 or $21.9M per year on average. That would be 12% of UM’s budget and a much bigger fraction of WSU’s (25-30%).
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There is a lot of recent news that could have an impact on the future of CFB TV rights.
https://thebiglead.com/2018/06/11/tuesdays-att-time-warner-decision-has-seismic-implications-for-next-decade-plus-of-live-sports-rights/
The AT&T/TW deal was approved by the judge. That could certainly impact what rights are worth and how sports gets watched.
… basically at issue is the fact that in this merger the AT&T-owned satellite distributor DirecTV would be be part of the same company as channels like CNN, TNT, TBS, and HBO. This in theory could lead DirecTV to squeeze those channels’ competitors on affiliate fees, or those networks to squeeze DirecTV’s competitor cable companies.
…
Comcast vs. Disney
The sports implications of this are immense: First, the ruling will impact whether and to what extent Comcast goes after the 21st Century Fox assets that the company has agreed to sell to Disney. This includes the wildly profitable regional sports networks, which combine to air about half the country’s local MLB, NBA, and NHL broadcasts.
If the deal ultimately goes through, expect Comcast to be very aggressive and at least make Fox shareholders consider whether they’d rather a bigger lump sum of cash now, or if they more value the sports and entertainment synergies that going to Disney would garner in the long run. If they believe that those assets in the hands of Robert Iger and Disney would make the new company the winner in a war over Netflix and Amazon, they could still choose that option over the sale to Comcast.
So many sports rights are coming up in America
Further, DirecTV is the rights holder to NFL Sunday Ticket, while Turner Sports airs the NBA, March Madness, MLB Playoffs, and Champions League. They also own Bleacher Report, which has massive digital distribution and recently launched the BR Live app for over-the-top streaming. If the two combined, they would have the muscles to go after more NFL rights for 2021/22 when all of the league’s TV packages — Sunday Ticket and ESPN’s Monday Night Football in 2021, NBC’s Sunday Night Football and the CBS and FOX packages in 2022 — are up.
And there’s a buffet of other rights that are up around the same time. The MLB, NHL, and Champions League rights are up in 2021. The English Premiership and MLS are up in 2022. The Big Ten’s deal with Fox and ESPN and the SEC’s deal with CBS are up in 2023. In the few years after that, we’ll see the Big 12, Pac-12, College Football Playoff, and finally the NBA rights come up again.
When will digital companies be serious threats for rights?
Over the last few years, we have seen digital companies like Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, and Yahoo dabble mostly in rights that are either non-exclusive or are the table scraps of what the traditional television networks really want. Netflix hasn’t really gotten into the games at all. Meanwhile, the TV networks are scrambling to fortify their positions.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/bj3yqz/new-tv-standard-could-be-huge-for-cord-cutters-but-privacy-concerns-linger?utm_campaign=sharebutton
Also of note is the new standard for broadcast TV being developed.
A new TV standard dubbed ATSC 3.0 will soon result in even better picture and sound quality, especially if you’re one of the millions of US consumers using an antenna to get over the air TV. At the same time, critics worry that the standards creation process isn’t taking consumer privacy, digital rights management (DRM) and interoperability concerns particularly seriously.
ATSC, or Advanced Television Systems Committee, is a group tasked with determining what the future of television will look like.
Its latest effort, ATSC 3.0, is an attempt to update over the air broadcasts to include support for Ultra HD, High Dynamic Range (HDR), and the kind of interactivity traditionally seen with cable TV and streaming video services. The standard should also boost broadcast refresh rates up to 120Hz while improving overall indoor reception of TV signals.
“With higher capacity to deliver Ultra High-Definition services, robust reception on a wide range of devices, improved efficiency, IP transport, advanced emergency alerting, personalization features and interactive capability, the ATSC 3.0 Standard provides much more capability than previous generations of terrestrial broadcasting,” notes a primer by the group.
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What the full, final standard will look like is still being negotiated, but last November the FCC approved the new standard on a “voluntary, market-driven basis” with a 3-2 agency vote. As a result, most analysts expect the standard to arrive sometime around 2020—provided it doesn’t get bogged down in industry infighting.
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But like everything, there’s some caveats.
One, it’s unclear how many broadcasters will be willing to eat the costs necessary to upgrade to the new standard. And given it’s not backward compatible, consumers could balk at having to pay even more money for compatible hardware—especially so soon after upgrading to new 4K-capable televisions and audio equipment in the first place.
That said, you won’t have to upgrade at first if you don’t want to; broadcasters have agreed to continue using the existing ATSC 1.0 standard for a period of five years after ATSC 3.0 formally launches. And you hopefully shouldn’t need to buy a completely new television, since users with older ATSC 1.0 tuners should only need to buy an ATSC 3.0 compatible adapter.
That could really help cord cutters.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/fox/what-should-fox-do-with-fs2.html
What, if anything, should Fox do with FS2? The 5th anniversary of the launch of FS1 and FS2 is coming up this August.
The article discusses 4 options:
1. Do nothing – let it be the re-runs and overflow channel
2. Bring back “Speed” – motorsports fans loved that channel
3. Start really programming FS2 with live events and NFL programming
4. Kill it
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http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/college/college-gridiron-365/os-sp-aac-revenue-20180531-story.html
The AAC needs (and thinks it deserves) a big jump in its TV deal next time around.
The conference reported $74.47 million in total revenue for the 2016-17 fiscal year, the most recent documents available and obtained by the Orlando Sentinel.
Those figures are down slightly — 6 percent — from the previous year, during which the league reported $79.297 million in total revenue. It’s the first decrease in revenue for the AAC since the decline between 2013-14 to 2014-15, with the latter being the first year without Louisville and Rutgers as members of the league.
Compare the American’s 2016-17 revenue to figures recently released by the five autonomous conferences: SEC ($650 million), Big Ten ($531 million), Pac-12 ($509 million), ACC ($418 million) and Big 12 ($371 million).
According to the records, the American earned $42.179 million in postseason tournaments, including money generated from the NCAA Tournament, revenue from appearances in bowl games and a share of the College Football Playoff as mandated by the playoff management group.
The league received more than $20 million in revenue from its television and radio rights shared over a variety of networks, including ESPN and CBS Sports. The conference’s current media rights deal ends in 2020.
“The real game-changer for us would be TV because we’re just not getting anywhere near what we deserve in TV,” American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco said. “It’s a throwback to that five-year ago period when we were very unstable and the whole situation was unstable and that’s just not remotely true now.
“I think at the time, I don’t think anyone realized how powerful our schools could become. We’ve established ourselves as a nationally relevant and respected conference and now it’s a question of let’s make sure that results in a TV deal that we need to keep this going. It’s a mixture of exposure and revenue.”
Let’s look at 2017 TV ratings for their games:
They had the #7 regular season game with Army/Navy (8.42M viewers). But otherwise?
They played in 8 games that pulled at least 1M viewers and only 2 of those were conference games:
USF/UCF – 4.70M
AAC CG – 3.39M
Navy/Army – 8.42M
UC/UM – 3.69M
Memphis/UCLA – 3.24M
Navy/ND – 3.20M
Temple/ND – 1.58M
USF/IL – 1.37M
The USF/UCF game was a great game with UCF’s undefeated season on the line, inflating the numbers significantly over what they would normally be. Otherwise they had some OOC games against the P5 and ND that did okay based almost entirely on the P5 teams. Army/Navy always does well due to it being the only game that day, but that’s a special TV deal already. It’s hard to see paying too much for AAC regular season games that pull so few viewers.
For comparison, the P12 also has 12 teams and struggles for viewers compared to other P5s. The P12 had 32 games pull at least 1M viewers last year, mostly conference games.
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http://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-world-cup/story/3522327/2026-world-cup-us-mexico-canada-joint-bid-wins-fifa-hosting-vote
It’s official. The North American joint bid won the 2026 World Cup over Morocco 134-65.
The 2026 tournament will feature an expanded field of 48 teams — the current field has 32 — and will mark the first time in FIFA’s history that a three-nation bid has been awarded the showpiece event.
The joint bid’s plans call for 60 of the 80 games to be played in the United States — including all matches from the quarterfinals onward — while Canada and Mexico host 10 apiece. The final is expected to be played at MetLife Stadium, just outside New York.
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The format for automatic bids for host countries is in transition. The North American region will get 6.5 bids (including one-half of a bid because one team will play another team from another country in a playoff to get in), and it hasn’t been decided whether all three hosts of the United bid will get in automatically. In 2002, when Japan and South Korea co-hosted the event, both teams were given automatic bids.
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https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/44464913
More about it.
Of the 16 host cities, 10 will be in the United States while the remainder will be split evenly between Canada and Mexico.
Sixty matches will take place in the US, while Canada and Mexico will host 10 games each.
The final will be held at the 84,953-capacity MetLife Stadium, which is home to NFL sides the New York Giants and the New York Jets.
The distance between the most northern host city (Edmonton) and the most southern (Mexico City) is almost 3,000 miles, which compares to 1,900 miles at this month’s tournament in Russia.
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The 1994 World Cup, staged by the US, had the highest average attendance in the tournament’s history, while Mexico was the first nation to host the event twice.
Host cities:
Canada – Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal
Mexico – Mexico City, Guadalajara, Monterrey
US (10 of these 17) – Seattle, SF, LA, Denver, KC, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, Nashville, Cincinnati, DC, Baltimore, Philly, NYC, Boston
My guess – Seattle, SF, LA, Dallas/Houston, Miami, Orlando, Atlanta, DC, NYC, Boston
I don’t know which of those pairs have better facilities.
By many accounts, Mexico City will host the opening game and NYC the title match. All 3 countries will host a game on opening day with LA getting the US game.
United votes by region:
North America, Central America, Caribbean – 29/29
Ocenania – 11/11
South America – 9/10 (Brazil voted for Morocco)
Europe – 41/53
Asia – 33/45
Africa – 11/52
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/06/13/ncaa-eases-rules-on-athlete-transfers/35993789/
Transfer reform is official.
College athletes will no longer need permission from their coach or school to transfer and receive financial aid from another school.
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Under the new rule, athletes would be permitted to be contacted when they notify their current coaches, who have two days to enter the names into a database created and managed by the NCAA that will alert schools who can be recruited. The change will come with stricter tampering rules to help appease coaches who worry illegal recruiting could rise.
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Nicholas Clark, a former football player at Coastal Carolina and a member of a student representative on the council, said the change promotes fairness and the well-being of college athletes.
“This creates a safe place for student-athletes to have a conversation with their coaches and makes the whole process more transparent,” Clark said.
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It should be pointed out that conferences can still have more restrictive rules for intraconference transfers.
The redshirt rule was also changed. Now a player can play in up to 4 games without using a year of eligibility. Players still only get 5 years to play 4, but now freshmen can play in some cupcake OOC games early or replace an injured player late in the season without losing a year.
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http://www.toledoblade.com/College/2018/06/13/Ohio-State-to-pay-Toledo-1-8-million-for-football-game.html
OSU is paying Toledo $1.8M for a home game in 2022. That’s significantly more than OSU paid last year for games against UNLV ($1.3M) and Army ($1.45M).
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44446881
This is a big step in the never-ending pursuit of foreign students and their higher tuition payments. UNH will become the first state university in the US to accept Chinese placement test scores.
A US university will begin accepting the Chinese university entrance exam known as the Gaokao in an effort to attract more Chinese students.
The University of New Hampshire will be the first state university in the US to accept the standardised placement test.
China is the largest exporter of students to the US, with 377,000 currently enrolled in US universities, according to government data.
An estimated 10 million students took the nine-hour test in China last week.
The exam – which takes place over two days in June each year – is taken by nearly every Chinese pupil and plays a crucial role in determining a person’s career and future prospects.
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The University of New Hampshire had 781 international undergraduate and graduate students on campus last fall, according to the Union Leader newspaper – double the figure from five years previous.
About half of those foreign students – 357 – came from China.
As part of the new initiative, the university has launched a recruiting website in Chinese and English.
“This initiative is part of UNH’s commitment to attracting more and stronger applicants from around the world,” said university spokeswoman Erika Mantz.
“This new programme will in no way limit access for New Hampshire students,” she added.
In addition to submitting their Gaokao results, students must also take an English test, participate in a video interview and send their high school transcripts before moving forward with the application process.
Ms Mantz added that the process was still being finalised, but that Chinese students may still need to take the American SAT or ACT exam.
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The University of New Hampshire charges $45,000 (£34,000) per academic year for tuition and housing costs.
The University of San Francisco already has a similar program but it’s a Jesuit school.
$45,000 to attend UNH? That seems mighty high for a state school that isn’t elite. It’s almost $30,000 for in-state students. The gap between in-state and not seems a little small, too.
Some B10 comparisons:
OSU – $22,800 / $42,000
PSU – $31,600 / $47,800
UM – $30,500 / $63,800
Is UNH worth that? USN&WR ranks them #103 in national universities. Their in-state tuition of over $18,000 is much higher than most other state schools in a similar place on the list. It is similar to UVT, though (#97 and $17,700). To find a more expensive state school in-state, you have to go to #75 CO School of Mines. Also higher are Pitt (not really a state school, but also not really private), PSU (same as Pitt), and William and Mary. That’s it. Their out-of-state tuition ($32,600) is more inline with other state schools with UVT ($41,400) being a lot more.
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I have relatives in New Hampshire. UNH is priced like a private school, and many of my nieces and nephews were simply priced out of college. U. Vt is another public university priced like a private school.
It might seem strange that UNH and UVT are so costly, but the attitude in the Northeast is that serious students go to private schools, and there is little support for public schools. Mass. governor Endicott Peabody famously said that UMass was for the kids who couldn’t get into college. The implication being that public universities did not deserve substantial government subsidy.
The difference in attitude between the Midwest and Pacific Coast with their world-class public universities, most reasonably priced, and the indifference to public schools in the Northeast is quite striking.
My relatives in NH cannot grasp just how badly they are living, with sky high taxes (even NH), sky high living cost, appalling weather … and, of course, bad public universities. UConn will never be P5 because of CT’s attitude to public universities.
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New York was much like that until officials pumped up the SUNY system after World War II. It’s made substantial progress over the decades, but its best schools (Binghamton, Albany, Buffalo, Stony Brook) still aren’t at the level of Midwest or West Coast flagships.
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I live in NH and agree with much of what you say about the public school bias. However I need to take exception to NH being “high tax”. No income, no sales. Of course, I pay a couple of hundred dollars per week for property. I believe when viewed in the aggregate, we are the 6th lowest tax state. And the COL doesn’t seem excessive, especially the further away you get from Boston.
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https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494/
You’re correct. According to that link, NH is #46 in total state tax burden (income + property + sales). NH is an outlier in the northeast (#1 NY, #3 ME, #4 VT, #6 CT, #7 RI, #9 NJ, #18 MA). But frankly, most states are fairly similar (#10 CA is at 9.57% while #42 MT is at 7.64%).
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Some hazing news:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/06/13/phi-kappa-psi-suspended-ohio-state-four-years-reports-say/699143002/
OSU has suspended Phi Kappa Psi for for 4 years after an investigation. They are 1 of 11 chapters that were under investigation when OSU temporarily suspended all frat activity in November. The chapter got an interim suspension in March and has 5 days to appeal.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation-now/2018/06/13/tim-piazza-fraternity-death-guilty-plea/699517002/
One PSU frat brother has pleaded guilty in the Tim Piazza hazing death case that’s been going on there.
Ryan Burke, 21, of Scranton pleaded guilty to all nine remaining charges he faced, including four misdemeanors alleging hazing against Tim Piazza of Readington Township, N.J. Other charges previously were dismissed or withdrawn.
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In addition to the four counts of hazing, Burke also pleaded guilty to four counts of unlawful acts relative to liquor, malt and brewed beverages and licenses; and one count of purchase, consumption, possession or transportation of liquor and malt or brewed beverages.
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Originally, Burke was facing charges of involuntary manslaughter, aggravated assault, simple assault and reckless endangering another person.
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Twenty-five other defendants face charges in the death of Tim Piazza, who was an engineering student at Penn State. The freshman pledge drank a dangerous amount of alcohol and suffered fatal injuries in a series of falls during a party last year.
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A Piazza….at Penn State….hmmm….dont want to be those fraternity brothers, from a legalistic or a corporal point of view.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2018/06/12/after-t-warner-green-light-comcast-expected-rival-disney-fox/696235002/
Comcast has upped their bid to $65B in cash for Fox’s studios and RSNs. Disney’s bid, which everyone thought Fox would take, was $52B of stock.
Fox shareholders have scheduled a meeting for July 10 to vote on the Disney merger, but Comcast said it is seeking to reach an agreement before that time.
Philadelphia-based Comcast offered to buy the Fox assets last year, but was spurned by Fox, which made a deal with Disney. Last month, Comcast said it planned to make a higher all-cash bid for the Fox studios.
Those Fox shareholders will have a tough decision to make and it will have repercussions for billions of people.
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2018/06/13/Media/Comcast-Fox.aspx
SBD says a bidding war is coming.
But whatever Comcast offers, Disney is “sure to counterbid.” Investment firm Jefferies media analyst John Janedis said that if a bidding war “takes off, and it could given Fox’s strategic importance and the capacity of both companies to stretch their balance sheets, bids could reach” up to $80B. That is the “maximum value at which the companies could maintain their investment-grade credit ratings” (WSJ.com, 6/13). Evolution Media analyst Sean Atkins said he finds it “hard to believe that Disney is going to match” a higher Comcast offer for Fox’ assets, “at least the first round what comes out.” Atkins said if the Murdoch family is “still playing a little bit for legacy” in the sale of assets, then it “gives the hand to Disney with a little bit of wiggle room.” Atkins noted Comcast “needs the assets more than Disney … but if you’re looking at who’s going to execute the most, who has the most synergistic opportunities to really expand that portfolio over time, you have to give it to Disney” (“Squawk Box,” CNBC, 6/13).
Both Comcast and Disney have indicated they are willing to not include the RSNs if necessary.
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https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/att-time-warner-merger-ok-sends-disney-comcast-war-fox-assets/
Clay Travis has some thoughts on the AT&T/TW merger.
1. Turner Sports will be a big buyer on the sports rights front in the years ahead.
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2. ESPN will have trouble keeping Monday Night Football when this deal is up in 2021.
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3. The SEC is set for a windfall when its deal with CBS expires.
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I’d suspect Turner, Fox and ESPN will all be at the bidding table. But the wild card to watch here is could Apple CEO Tim Cook, a huge Auburn fan, finally decide that he wants to step into the original sports rights game by buying up an asset like this? Don’t underestimate the value of personal connections in a story like this. Effectively the SEC game of the week is a piece of artwork.
$300 million a year is a rounding error for Cook and Apple.
Here’s the other question, could the SEC go direct to consumer and sell their game of the week? Don’t you think there are millions of SEC fans who’d be happy to pay, let’s say, $50 a year for an SEC game of the week telecast that didn’t have a single commercial break?
Then the SEC could sell their title game off as a single game to the highest bidder, and potentially get $100 million just for that game.
This one will be a fascinating rights package to watch.
4. CBS is a dangling asset waiting to be acquired by someone.
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5. What will happen with Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Apple?
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Read the article if you want more depth on his thoughts.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/06/14/iowas-big-4-classic-done-after-18/36034819/
The expansion to 20 B10 games in hoops has led to the end of the Big 4 Classic in Iowa.
The annual doubleheader between Iowa, Iowa State, Northern Iowa and Drake will come to an end after next season.
The Hawkeyes announced on Thursday that they are pulling out of the Des Moines-based event partly because the Big Ten is moving from an 18- to a 20-game schedule, which limits their options in non-conference scheduling.
“The addition of two conference games is good for our fans, the Big Ten Conference and our strength of schedule, but unfortunately it created some scheduling challenges that impacts this event,” Iowa athletic director Gary Barta said.
Iowa and Iowa State held home-and-home series with Northern Iowa and Drake, both Missouri Valley Conference members, until 2012 — an unusually generous gesture for the high-major schools. The Big Four Classic, as it came to be known, was a neutral-floor compromise that the Hawkeyes and Cyclones reached with their mid-major rivals. It came on the heels of consecutive blowouts road losses by Iowa at Northern Iowa.
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The annual series between Iowa and Iowa State will go on as scheduled.
http://www.thegazette.com/subject/sports/hawkeyes/iowa-mens-basketball/prime-time-league-is-no-more-hy-vee-classic-soon-to-follow-20180614
“In our last agreement we added language that provided each institution an opportunity to opt out of the remainder of the contract if they reached 22 required games by the conference,” said Iowa Athletic Director Gary Barta. …
The 22 games refers to a 20-game conference schedule and single games in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and Gavitt Games, a series featuring Big Ten and Big East games.
It’s too bad for UNI and Drake but perfectly understandable on UI’s part. Having 23 locked games is bad enough. UI needs some flexibility to keep things interesting. I’m sure they’ll still play those 2 on occasion in the future.
ISU has fewer B12 games, so hopefully they’ll keep playing UNI and Drake.
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I hope it works out, but I’m skeptical
https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article213184704.html
It’s going to be almost impossible for the ACC to close the gap on the SEC and Big Ten, both of which had a considerable head start on their own (profitable) networks, but the ACC is counting on network revenue – which even in its least optimistic projections should be at least $10 million per year, once the network is up and running – to move it past the Pac-12 and even with the Big 12.
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Disney has a lot of leverage to force cable companies to pick up the ACCN and the ACC has a large footprint (MA, NY, PA, KY, IN, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL). If they can force all those cable households to pay $1/month they’ll make a lot.
The B10 has worry a bit about Fox losing some leverage going forward as they sell off their assets. Comcast (a small carrier of BTN due to locations) has already dropped BTN.
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https://smartasset.com/mortgage/where-are-millennials-moving-2018-edition
Related to Frank’s post, here’s a look at where millennials are moving to and away from.
They give the top 10 states and top 25 cities for gaining millennials.
In order to calculate which cities and states millennials are moving to, SmartAsset compared 2016 Census Bureau migration data for 217 cities and all 50 states, plus Washington, D.C.
We compared the number of persons between the ages of 20 and 34 who emigrated from each city and state to the number who immigrated. We ranked the cities and states by highest difference between the number who immigrated and the number who emigrated for persons ages 20 to 34.
Data on migration patterns comes from the 2016 U.S. Census Bureau’s 1-Year American Community Survey.
Top 10 states and net migration:
1. Washington – 39,590
2. Texas – 33,650
3. Colorado – 26,547
4. Virginia – 18,338
5. Georgia – 17,621
6. Oregon – 11,989
7. North Carolina – 9,647
8. Nevada – 8,820
9. Florida – 7,195
10. Arizona – 7,077
Top 10 cities and net migration:
1. Seattle – 7,302
2. Columbia, South Carolina – 6,937
3. Sacramento, California – 6,680
4. Minneapolis – 6,529
5. Jacksonville, Florida – 6,354
6. Newport News, Virginia – 5,667
7. San Jose, California – 5,496
8. Denver – 5,106
9. Norfolk, Virginia – 4,997
10. Virginia Beach, Virginia – 4,984
Ohio did not make the list of top 10 states, but Cincinnati (#13, +4,420) and Columbus (#24, +3,335) did make the top cities list.
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These numbers look awfully small. Are the city numbers for the cities per se or for the SMSA? In the case of Columbus, OH, for which I have direct knowledge, the City itself is showing slow growth, but the surrounding countryside shows spectacular growth out to 30 to 40 miles.
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1. Remember that it’s only millennials. There are 71M of them nationally, so about 22% of the population. Total movement could easily be 4-5 times as large.
2. They used the 2016 U.S. Census Bureau’s 1-Year American Community Survey for data (net = immigration – emigration).
3. They don’t say how they defined city, but its probably for the incorporated city.
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Could Nos. 6, 9, and 10 be indicative of standard Navy related-churn or of some consolidation of domestic operations or return from foreign deployments/engagements? Apart from Navy, defense related industries or intermodal (Norfolk Southern railyards, ports) , what could be behind the large numbers of millenials migrating to the greater Hampton Roads?
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Yes, that’s probably exactly what it is. The next 3 cities are Charlotte, Nashville and Cincinnati if you want to move them into the real top 10.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23784995/oregon-ducks-wisconsin-badgers-teams-easiest-nonconference
ESPN’s list of the 10 easiest OOC schedules for P5 teams.
We were especially hard on those teams not playing any Power 5 opponents in their nonconference slate as well as those teams padding their schedule with FCS foes and/or not playing any true road games.
Of note, there are three Big Ten teams and three SEC teams on this list, including the two teams — Alabama and Georgia — that played in the national championship game a year ago.
1. Oregon
2. Wisconsin – vs WKU, vs UNM, vs BYU
3. Kansas
4. Rutgers
5. Arkansas
6. Virginia
7. Washington State
8. Indiana
9. Georgia – vs Austin Peay, vs MTSU, vs UMass, vs GT
10. Alabama – vs UL, vs Ark. St, vs Louisiana, … vs Citadel in November
I don’t think anyone begrudges bad teams like KU, RU, UVA and IU playing an easy OOC schedule. Even teams like WSU (lack of historical success), Oregon and Arkansas (coaching changes) have decent excuses.
WI, UGA and AL? No valid excuses.
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https://newsok.com/article/5598337/big-12-football-schedules-stack-up-with-any-other-conference
Barry Tramel looks at how B12 OOC scheduling compares to other P5 conferences.
• The Big 12 has the biggest percentage of its games against fellow Power 5 schools. Eleven of the Big 12’s 30 nonconference games, 36.7 percent, are against the Power 5. Every Big 12 team except OSU plays a Power 5 opponent, and the Cowboys play mid-major power Boise State. Texas and West Virginia each play two Power 5 foes.
• Schedules can be fortified with strong mid-majors. OU lost to Brigham Young in 2009 and Houston in 2016, both in NFL stadiums. The Big 12 is playing 46.7 percent of its games (14 of 30) against either Power 5 foes or strong mid-majors. Only the Pac-12 (47.2 percent) is above the Big 12. The SEC is playing 26.7 percent of its nonconference games against Power 5 schools or strong mid-majors (Arkansas State and Memphis).
• The Big 12 still is playing too many Division I-AA (FCS) opponents, which can offer only 63 scholarships, compared to the 85 provided in Division I-A (FBS). Every Big 12 team but OU and Texas play a lower-division foe, meaning eight games out of 30, 26.7 percent. That’s about the going rate in the SEC, ACC and Pac-12, all of which is playing 25 percent of its non-conference games against I-AA teams. Only the Big Ten is taking the honorable route — Iowa is playing Northern Iowa and Illinois is playing Western Illinois, but no other I-AA opponent is on a Big Ten schedule.
I think CFB would benefit from more balanced scheduling nationally. There’s no good mechanism for doing it and each conference has different needs, but I think they’re leaving a lot of money on the table doing things this way. We’ve seen rules requiring teams to play another P5 team become the norm. The question is if they can ever get conferences besides the B10 to give up the I-AA games. My suggestion is trying to combine several factors into one rule, as in you can only play a I-AA team if you also play 10 P5 (or equivalent) games in the regular season. That can be 9 conference games + 1 P5 OOC game or 8 conference games + 2 P5 OOC games. The B10, P12 and B12 generally satisfy that already.
What really needs to happen to drive change is for the CFP committee to truly value SOS and punish I-AA games, not playing on the road and only playing 8 conference games. Until the committee pushes that, nothing will change.
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https://bamahammer.com/2018/06/17/alabama-football-nine-sec-conference-games-must/
An AL blogger explains why the SEC going to 9 games is a must.
Critics praise Alabama for their opening games against tough opponents yet hammer them for the teams added the week before Auburn. Fans across the nation are quick to point this out when discussing SEC football. While other conferences are playing formidable foes within their conference and winning, skeptics see the SEC playing FCS cupcakes before regular season finales.
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Nick Saban has advocated for nine conference games for a long time. One, it allows your players to play every team during their career. Second, critics cannot question games such as Mercer, Wofford, Chattanooga or Missouri State.
Even if the Tide played a bottom dweller from a major conference like an Illinois, Indiana or Maryland it would be better than playing an FCS school. Just imagine the heat Auburn would take playing a Mercer the week before the Iron Bowl while Alabama football whipped on a low-rung B1G or Big 12 team.
Last year the SEC had two teams make the playoffs. If the SEC would play nine games, it would enhance the chances of two teams making the field in the future.
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Of course, the problem with these ideas is the bowl qualification for teams like Vanderbilt and Kentucky. In some years, the same could be true for other SEC schools. As long as one measurement in defining coach stability is six wins and a bowl game, several SEC schools will oppose the change. Nick Saban has a better idea for determining bowl eligibility.
His idea is to use a committee as basketball does for the purpose of picking all the bowl participants. The idea would allow five-win teams who played tougher schedules to be rewarded with bowl game over 6-win teams who played weaker schedules.
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https://hailvarsity.com/s/4024/ad-bill-moos-has-a-perfect-nebraska-football-schedule-in-mind
Bill Moos (AD at NE) spoke again about scheduling.
“No I don’t think we’re going to go away from nine conference games, what we have now,” he said when asked.
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“We’re having discussions on the broader schedule in football as athletic directors and working through some ideas there and looking at some options.”
One of those ideas is, instead of reducing the number of conference games, changing the way teams from opposite divisions play each other. It’s a comment Moos has made before and Brandon Vogel explored it last month in Hot Reads.
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Moos is an advocate for an expanded eight-team playoff. While there are plenty of headache-inducing logistics to work out on getting to that front, Moos said he’d be in support of it after being “screwed enough” by the BCS. He called the switch to the current four-team College Football Playoff a step in the right direction.
“What I was glad to see was to get to four, that’s a step,” he said. “There are some good things about eight. All five of the Power 5 champions are in and you get three at-larges, which this year would have included UCF. The problem is when do you play it and where do you play it and how do the bowls tie in to [it]?
“We’re making headway. Going to four was a big step and I think it was a good one and we’ve got to let that kind of play it’s course — it’s already starting to — and then hopefully go to eight.”
I disagree about CFP expansion. First, I think it will prove difficult to exclude the G5 from autobids. Maybe you could have a clause that the G5 team has to be undefeated (or ranked high enough) to get an autobid, but they’d probably also demand an equal payout to the P5s that they can split among themselves whether a team gets in or not. Second, I think the logistics around adding another round are a bigger problem than he admits. The presidents will stand firm on not pushing deeper into January, so the quarterfinals would have to be in December. Using current bowls and playing around December is bad for TV but might be doable. Southern schools will never agree to play on campuses in the north, so playing in early December is out. The extra round is also a big expense for fans. You risk hurting attendance by asking fans to travel for a CCG, QF, SF and NCG.
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https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/college-sports/collegesports/2018/05/26/expansion-still-possible-big-12-incoming-president-thinks-conferences-current-size-positive
A few weeks ago President Gee (new head of the B12 presidents) spoke about expansion.
He was an advocate for Big 12 expansion two years ago, although he now questions the public process that eventually led to the conference standing pat with 10 teams.
“I’m not certain it was the best way to do it,” Gee said. “It was a little bit messy — and I was part of the mess.”
Gee describes the process as a “refiner’s fire” and now says that the Big 12 reached the right conclusion. There is an upside to being the smallest power conference, Gee said.
“Intimacy gives us an opportunity to do something that a lot of other places can’t do,” Gee said. “We’ll play to our strengths. We’re small, but we can be very aggressive in positioning ourselves uniquely.”
Gee still sees the possibility of significant national realignment sometime in the next decade, with power conferences possibly realigning themselves geographically without the whole raids of past realignment. And he’s not oblivious to the change brewing in television and digital rights fees.
“I think the world of college athletics is changing dramatically,” Gee said. “I’m wondering when all the television contracts come up in 2024-25, if we won’t all be negotiating with Amazon and Google. I think the world is just upside down right now.”
Gee’s view of the Big 12 is also different now that when West Virginia joined in 2012.
“I worried about the conference when I came here,” Gee said. “Having come from the Big Ten where it was massively stable to institutions that were put together by a shotgun, it was a little nerve-wracking at first.
“But now, I really feel everyone has sheathed their shotguns and said, ‘Let’s make this work.'”
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http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/06/michigan_state_trustee_calls_f_2.html
John Engler is being pressured to resign as interim president of MSU. 1 trustee and several state legislators have called for him to go while others have also criticized him for this latest screw up.
Michigan State University board member Brian Mosallam is calling on Interim President John Engler to resign in wake of an email in which he accused a victim of former sports medicine doctor Larry Nassar of taking kickbacks from attorneys.
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“Our courageous survivors all came forward out of their own bravery and courage rather than a manipulative game,” he said in a statement released Friday morning. “Such a suggestion otherwise is disgusting. I fear that this most unfortunate tone has sent a chilling message across our campus to survivors of relationship violence and sexual misconduct.”
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Mosallam, a frequent critic of Engler, is the first trustee to call on the former Republican governor to step down. Trustee Dianne Byrum issued a statement earlier this week criticizing Engler’s comments and asked him to apologize, but she stopped short of calling on him to resign.
Several state lawmakers have also called on Engler to resign in the wake of emails obtained by the Chronicle of Higher Education through an open records request. In the emails, Engler sent the following message to MSU Vice President and Special Counsel to the President Carol Viventi:
“… The survivors now are being manipulated by trial lawyers who in the end will each get millions of dollars more than any of individual survivors with the exception of Denhollander who is likely to get kickback from Manley for her role in the trial lawyer manipulation.”
http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/06/engler_should_resign_from_msu.html
This piece focuses on the comments from the legislators. Obviously some of this is just politics, but not all of it. Engler was a Republican governor, but even some Republicans have spoken out against him.
“It’s time for John Engler to resign, retire and get out of the way of MSU’s future,” said Jones, the first of nine lawmakers to call for Engler’s resignation.
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“I don’t know how anyone could feel comfortable talking about survivors like that. I think it goes well beyond any official role, I think it goes to just basic human decency,” Hertel said.
Senate Minority Leader Jim Ananich, D-Flint, supports Engler resigning.
“I am very disappointed in his comments about the sister survivors. Not only are they completely off-base, they’re coming from someone who is supposed to be reforming a culture of victim blaming and secrecy. This is a clear indicator that his time at MSU needs to come to an end,” he said in a statement.
…
Sen. Margaret O’Brien, R-Portage, spearheaded a package of bills aimed at strengthening Michigan law around childhood sexual assault amid the Nassar scandal, including by extending the amount of time victims have to come forward in criminal and civil cases.
She worked on those bills with Denhollander as an ally, and Engler’s words stung.
“I was so stunned and saddened when I read that article. I’ve known Rachel for 20 years. She wants to make this world a safer place for kids. That has been her mission,” O’Brien said.
Asked if she thought Engler should resign, she said he should.
“It’s hard to say, but yeah,” O’Brien said.
“It’s something I’ve avoided saying, but I don’t see where we’re getting the positive image and the positive results we want,” said O’Brien, an MSU graduate and Republican who was initially excited to see Engler take the helm.
The Michigan Progressive Women’s Caucus’ executive committee, in a joint statement to be released Friday, also called for Engler’s resignation.
“With his own words, interim President John Engler has made it clear that he is not capable of handling the sensitive and important work of rebuilding a campus and a community in the wake of a disturbing sexual assault scandal. He must resign,” said the caucus’ executive committee, comprised of Reps. Stephanie Chang, D-Detroit; Erika Geiss, D-Taylor; Winnie Brinks, D-Grand Rapids; Donna Laskinski, D-Scio Twp; and Leslie Love, D-Detroit.
“After everything these survivors suffered, the last thing they deserve is to be attacked by the very institution that failed them. If Engler will not resign of his own volition it is time for the Michigan State University Board of Trustees to exercise its authority and remove him from a position he clearly is not capable of fulfilling.”
Jones, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee that handled Nassar-related bills and also an MSU graduate, said Engler was a political pick who hadn’t fared well.
“I believe that (MSU Trustee) Joel Ferguson and the rest of the board selected John Engler because they thought as a former governor he could keep control of the Republican legislature. He soon found out that was not true,” Jones said.
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While a growing chorus of lawmakers has called for Engler’s resignation, a spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader Arlan Meekhof, R-West Olive, said it was up to the Board of Trustees.
“It is up to the Board to decide if the President’s comments are a reflection of the culture they want to perpetuate at MSU,” said Amber McCann.
O’Brien said Engler’s words in the email were exactly the kind of reaction that made sexual assault survivors hesitant to come forward.
“We wonder why more people don’t report sexual assault or sexual abuse. This is why,” O’Brien said.
https://www.chronicle.com/article/Michigan-State-Chief-Said/243656
This piece from The Chronicle of Higher Education has the emails in question and good analysis.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-wrigley-field-college-football-bowl-20180613-story.html
Some more info about the potential bowl game at Wrigley.
But a key facet has yet to be determined, and there’s a chance it would threaten the game: The Cubs want one of the higher-rated Big Ten teams rather than, say, the conference’s sixth- or seventh-place team.
As far as the annual opponent, college football reporter Brett McMurphy reported it will come from the ACC. Sources told the Tribune that’s not a reality just yet, pointing to discussions with the SEC. But there’s at least a 95 percent chance the ACC will sign on.
Notre Dame is part of the ACC’s bowl lineup, but it would take an odd set of circumstances for the Irish to end up playing at Wrigley, according to sources.
Really? They think they deserve a high place in the pecking order? For an outdoor game in Chicago in December in a small stadium? Exactly which bowls do they expect to be better than?
Current B10 bowls:
1. Rose vs P12 #1 (Pasadena)
2a. Orange vs ACC #1 (Miami) or
2b/3/4. Citrus vs SEC #2 (Orlando)
2b/3/4. Outback vs SEC #4-7 (Tampa)
2b/3/4. Holiday vs P12 #3 (San Diego)
5/6/7. Music City/TaxSlayer vs SEC #4-7 (Nashville/Jacksonville)
5/6/7. San Francisco vs P12 #4 (SF)
5/6/7. Pinstripe vs ACC #3-6 (NYC)
8/9. Quick Lane vs ACC #7-9 (Detroit)
8/9. Heart of Dallas/Armed Forces vs CUSA (Dallas/Ft. Worth)
We know the SF bowl slot will go away, making space for adding the Chicago bowl. But it seems on par with the Pinstripe to me (outdoors in a northern baseball stadium in a major city). Without a huge payout, how does it get on the same tier as trips to football stadiums in CA or FL? Do they expect the B10 to drop the Holiday Bowl lower to make room for the Chicago game on that second tier?
You also have to get the ACC to want this game high up.
Current ACC bowls (ignoring really low conditional tie-ins):
1. Orange (Miami)
2a*. Citrus (* – only if the B10 is in the Orange; Orlando)
2b. Camping World vs B12 #3 (Orlando)
3/4/5/6. Sun Bowl vs P12 #5 (El Paso)
3/4/5/6. Belk vs SEC #4-7 (Charlotte)
3/4/5/6. Music City/TaxSlayer vs SEC #4-7 (Nashville/Jacksonville)
3/4/5/6. Pinstripe vs B10 #5-7 (NYC)
7/8/9. Military vs AAC (Annapolis)
7/8/9. Independence vs SEC #10 (Shreveport)
7/8/9. Quick Lane vs B10 #8/9 (Detroit)
Again, I don’t see this supplanting a FL trip. It seems like that middle tier is the most natural fit.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-14/yankees-are-said-to-want-yes-network-back-if-fox-sells-assets
With Fox selling its assets, the Yankees may buy back the controlling share in the YES network.
The Yankees ceded control of the regional sports network four years ago to Rupert Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox Inc., which increased its stake to 80 percent from 49 percent. That agreement included a clause that gives the baseball team the right to buy back the network in the event Fox puts it up for sale, said the person, who asked to be anonymous because the deal terms are private.
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Fox first took a 49 percent stake in YES in 2012, in a deal that valued the network at about $3.8 billion. In 2014, Fox bought an additional 31 percent at roughly the same valuation. Yankee Global Enterprises owns the rest; its deal with Fox calls for the team to pay fair-market value to buy back the sports network, according to the person.
“It would be worth $4 billion or more by now, based on the success of the Yankees and the fact that it’s in the nation’s No. 1 market,” industry consultant Lee Berke said. “It’s not dropping in value. It’s only increasing.”
I think this shows that conference networks will maintain value going forward as well. Maybe not the same value that they built on mandatory fees, but the value based on actual viewership. This is why I wonder if the ACCN can really pay $10M+ per school annually. Will the viewership justify that is or is all based on people on the coast being forced to pay for it?
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An interview with Chris Bevilacqua about the changing media landscape and future tier 1 deals. It’s definitely worth reading the whole thing.
* What’s your read on the future of sports media rights if we use as a backdrop the next round of Tier I rights for the Power Five?
“It’s hard to predict so far out in the future, because you can see how quickly consumer behavior changes.
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“But at the end of the day, all this change is shaping a higher value for premium content and premium brands, and for access to that content. …
“It’s pretty clear, if you look at the mergers, that there’s a doubling down on premium content. It’s Disney saying, ‘We have to get more heft to compete. We need depth and breadth for all audiences.’
“When you talk about live premier content, that’s sports. We’re not talking about rugby and lacrosse. We’re talking about football and basketball, baseball, the NHL and the Olympics. If you’re on the top shelf, the future is bright.
“But there’s going to be a choppiness as things work through the system for a few years. And that’s not to mention we’re in the world of Trump and regulatory issues and net neutrality. It will take a while to sort itself out.”
* The Big Ten’s media rights expire in the summer of 2023, and the Pac-12’s are up in ’24. That means we’re roughly three years from the start of the Big Ten’s negotiating phase. Will there be clarity at that point?
“I don’t know that it will all be sorted out by then, but some of it will be sorted out. Everybody will have more and better information on the overall market and what business models will work. But they will be going through (negotiations) while it’s changing.
“The evolution of the industry is going at a pace we haven’t seen, but it’s not going to stay at this pace forever.”
* How would you advise the commissioner of Conference X to prepare for Tier I negotiations to ensure maximum value for content?
“I’d say: ‘Put out a great product and showcase it in a way that maximizes consumption. Do what you’re doing. The market will define itself.’ If you have high-value premium content, you’ll be OK.
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“What’s going to happen over the next several years is everybody’s going to try to catch up so that monetization matches consumption on digital and mobile. You have all the people fleeing to Over-The-Top and Direct-To-Consumer, but the business models haven’t caught up to it yet.
“We’ll see how they all make the pivot.”
* In the previous round of Tier I negotiations, there was a small number of buyers: Fox and ESPN mostly; Comcast dabbled. Because of that, the conference felt the need to get bigger, to increase supply. But if there are numerous potential buyers in the next round — Fox and ESPN and maybe the telecos and the techs — could that eliminate the need for the conferences to get even bigger? Might we not see any realignment?
“The reasons expansion may or may not happen aren’t directly aligned to the number of buyers. If you have more than one buyer, you have a market, right? It’s a matter of the strategic importance of the content to the buyer.
“I think there will be at least two or three well-heeled media guys, whether it’s Disney or Fox, Viacom or CBS, Turner — there will be multiple legacy media companies in that market (for Tier 1 rights).
“The outstanding question is, ‘When are the tech guys going to show up, and are they going to show up?’ They all have massive video budgets, and they’ve started to dabble in sports. But in three-and-a-half years, when the Big Ten hits the market, are any of those non-legacy media companies going to be there in a big way?
“I hope so, but it’s not clear to me yet.”
* What clues are you watching for to determine whether the techs will jump in?
“We just saw Amazon do a deal with the EPL” — 20 matches per year for Prime members in Ireland and Great Britain — “and we saw them re-up with the NFL. It’s clear there is some alignment with sports. Verizon spent $2.25 billion on the NFL and didn’t even get exclusivity.
“They’re all dabbling. But what happens when the rubber hits the road in the next cycle of deals? The NFL, NHL, MLB, Big Ten, Pac-12 and NASCAR — they’re all up in about a three-year window. When they all turn over, we’ll see if there’s a critical mass and sports rights migrate out of the bundle.”
* What else is on your sports rights radar?
“Another big thing — and it’s all interrelated — is net neutrality. There’s this fight between the pipes (Verizon, Comcast AT&T) and the techs. Google, Netflix and Facebook want access to the pipes without paying tolls.
“There’s a lot going on on the regulatory front, and it all is connected to the top of the pyramid. If you’re an owner of rights, you want as little friction in the system as possible. You want your product in as many places as possible in real time.
“Then you throw in gambling, which will have people tethered. And that’s a great thing for sports and the owners of sports rights.”
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/06/18/Media/Sports-Media.aspx
John Ourand interviewed P12N president Mark Shuken.
Jon Wilner gave a few quotes and commented on them in his newsletter (he’ll post it as an article in a day or two).
“Our short-term objective is to learn from (the tech giants) and exploit their reach. Our long-term goal is to position ourselves for the most number of interested parties when our rights agreements come up.”
My comment: The number of interested tech heavyweights will help set the market for Pac-12 media rights in 2023-24, but we might have a good sense for the ceiling before Shuken and commissioner Larry Scott sit down with Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc:
The Big Ten’s Tier I rights expire a year earlier than the Pac-12’s rights. Given the metrics (population, fan affinity, inventory, brand names, etc.), it’s difficult to imagine a situation in which the latter reaps a greater windfall than the former.
“We have already 450 events that aren’t monetized” (i.e., no rights fees attached). “We have to figure out how to exploit that both financially and in terms of the reach of the event.”
My comment: Both in this article and in my conversations with Pac-12 Networks executives over the months, it’s clear that there are many unanswered questions within the organization as to how best maximize the content.
Halfway through the 12-year rights cycle, but less than one year into Shuken’s tenure as president, the networks are searching for a strategy.
“All those entities want sports content and live sports content and storytelling. Ultimately, we want to make sure that we’re partnering with those entities so that when our future is before us, we’re prepared to look at all options.”
My comment: The present isn’t exactly bright and shining — every few weeks, it seems, the networks are criticized by one campus official or another. In that regard, Shuken is smart to focus on the future, on positioning the networks, and the conference, for the big payday in 2024.
It has to be a whopper, after all, or else Scott’s big bet on 100 percent ownership will have been a massive miscalculation.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlkaufman/2018/06/15/will-facebook-become-the-preferred-way-for-fans-to-watch-sports/#64edaee92746
Will Facebook become the preferred way to watch sports in the future?
Facebook overhauled its platform to encourage more interactive and engaging content, and video is at the forefront of that change. According to Techcrunch, “live videos on Facebook generate six times more discussion” than recorded videos.
“When done well, video brings us closer together,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg said on Facebook’s Q3 earnings call last year. “We’ve found that communities formed around video like TV shows or sports create a greater sense of belonging than many other kinds of communities . . . But too often right now, watching video is just a passive consumption experience.”
The Facebook platform seems ideal for an interactive sports watching experience. So, what is their endgame with this move — to show more ads or to capture more user data?
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Meg Brunson, founder and CEO of EIEIO Marketing in Glendale, Arizona, thinks it’s all about the user data. “Given the recent breach with Cambridge Analytica, Facebook is trying to increase the quality and quantity of first-party data they can gather on users,” she said. “Video viewing data is the least expensive way to identify an interest in a topic. Facebook can track how long a user watches any given video. From there, the page that streamed the video will have remarketing capabilities, and internally Facebook can track what topics the user is interested in based on the tags and description of the video they watched.”
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However, throughout the broadcast, I was struck by the fact that there were no commercials shown between innings. Instead, the announcers showed Instagram posts from some of the ballplayer’s accounts, provided a game summary, showed highlights throughout the league and asked questions for the audience to respond to. It was a refreshing change from the interminable slog of sitting through ads during countless calls to the bullpen.
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“This is all about the changing ratio of power across alternative content distribution platforms. ESPN and similar ‘pay for’ distributors, like MLB broadcast package distributors, should worry about the clear encroachment into their worlds,” said Steve Andriole, PhD, Professor of Business Technology at Villanova School of Business. “Facebook (and other social media platforms) has an inherent cost-sharing advantage: as long as Facebook can enable communication and content distribution ‘for free’ (because of its ad-supported revenue model), it can out-compete distributors who charge for content.”
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https://record.umich.edu/articles/michigan-athletics-projects-surplus-upcoming-budget-year
UM’s annual athletics budget release came today.
B10 payout:
2018 – $51.1M
2019 – $52.1M (projected)
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There are three finalists for the Maryland AD position, according to the Washington Post and Baltimore Sun: current interim AD Damon Evans, Temple AD Patrick Kraft and former K-State and Tennessee AD John Currie. Kraft is the supposed front-runner, thanks in part to not only the recent success of Owls’ athletics, but his work in fundraising at an urban institution whose student and alumni demographics are similar to College Park.
https://www.testudotimes.com/2018/6/20/17483388/athletic-director-search-damon-evans-patrick-kraft-john-currie
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https://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2018/06/dont_expect_michigan_state_to.html#incart_2box_sports
I see your AD news and raise you some president news, all courtesy of MSU.
Bill Beekman has been serving as Michigan State’s interim athletic director for more than four months.
And, don’t expect the university to hire a permanent replacement for the position soon.
Following a Michigan State Board of Trustees meeting Friday morning, trustee Brian Mosallam said he believes the next university president will hire an athletic director. He also doesn’t think Michigan State will have a new president until 2019.
“I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon,” Mosallam said of hiring a new athletic director. “I think you’d want a new president to hire the AD – that’s my position.”
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John Engler, who was appointed Michigan State’s interim president after Lou Anna K. Simon resigned, appointed Beekman interim athletic director on Feb. 5. Beekman, a Michigan State vice president, has no previous experience in athletic administration and the announcement of his appointment stated no internal candidates from the department will be considered for the permanent athletic director position.
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Beekman agreed to a brief interview with MLive following a Michigan State Board of Trustees meeting in February but has not fulfilled any other interview requests, including at meetings between Big Ten athletic directors at conference headquarters outside of Chicago in May. He remains a vice president and secretary of the Board of Trustees but left at the conclusion of Friday’s meeting without talking to the media.
Mosallam was the only one of the eight trustees who talked with reporters after Friday’s meeting, in which he was unable to generate enough votes from the board to fire Engler. He said the process of finding a president to replace Engler will begin with hiring a search firm by this summer or fall and then the formation of a search committee. Mosallam said he believes a new president will be named by next June, before the beginning of the 2019-2020 school year.
Two weeks after being appointed interim athletic director, Beekman said he was surprised Engler asked him to take over the position and was unsure how long he will be in it before a new athletic director is hired.
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https://www.btpowerhouse.com/2018/6/22/17492446/big-ten-has-eight-players-drafted-in-2018-nba-draft-miles-bridges-jaren-jackson-huerter-wagner
The B10 had 8 players drafted into the NBA last night:
1st round:
4. Jackson (MSU)
12. Bridges (MSU)
19. Huerter (UMD)
25. Wagner (MI)
2nd round:
43. Jackson (UMD)
48. Bates-Diop (OSU)
51. Carr (PSU)
52. Edwards (PU)
By conference:
ACC – 10 (6/4)
B10 – 8 (4/4)
SEC – 7 (5/2)
P12 – 7 (3/4)
B12 – 6 (3/3)
By school:
Duke – 4 (3/1)
Villanova – 4 (3/1)
UK – 4 (2/2)
MSU – 2 (2/0)
UMD – 2 (1/1)
Miami – 2 (1/1)
UCLA – 2 (1/1)
KU – 2 (0/2)
USC – 2 (0/2)
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-06-21/these-college-basketball-teams-and-conferences-have-most-nba
That link his historical totals for 1st rounders and overall #1 picks by school (before last night) as well as 1st round picks by conference.
#1 picks:
Duke and UK – 3
17 others – 2 (see chart in link)
26 others – 1
1st rounders:
1. UNC – 48
2. UK – 47
3. Duke – 42
4. UCLA – 38
5. KU – 32
6. IN – 25
6. MI – 25
…
10. OSU – 23
14. MSU – 19
15. UMD – 18
17. MN – 16
1st rounders by conference:
ACC – 252 (16.8 per school)
B10 – 175 (12.5)
P12 – 163 (13.6)
SEC – 161 (11.5)
B12 – 96 (9.6)
BE – 92
AAC – 76
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https://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2018/06/michigan_state_to_issue_bonds.html
Now we know how MSU will pay their $500M settlement.
The Michigan State University Board of Trustees on Friday unanimously approved a settlement agreement with survivors of ex-university doctor Larry Nassar and the issuance of $500 million in bonds to pay for it.
The university will issue bonds but then continue to work with more than a dozen insurers to recoup money that way, said MSU Interim President John Engler in an interview.
“That will be bonded and then that bond issue will be reduced as insurance proceeds come in,” Engler said in an interview.
…
Engler said it was important to him going in that tuition not be raised to pay for the settlement. There is an increase — $360 per year for sophomores, juniors in seniors or $540 per year for juniors and seniors in business and engineering majors–but it’s less than a dollar per day, he said, and it goes toward salaries and increased financial aid.
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To stay away from tuition, cuts did have to be made in other places. The budget approved by the Board of Trustees on Friday implemented an additional 1 percent reduction in college budgets, a salary freeze for top administrators and deans and a 1 percent scale-back of a planned salary increase for faculty.
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/
In case anyone is interested, 538 has World Cup predictions.
On the “Standings” tab they show how likely each team is to advance to the final 16 and every round after that. The teams are broken into their World Cup groups so it makes sense (top 2 from each group advance).
On the “Matches” tab they show the win likelihoods for both teams (as well as for a draw) dynamically during each match. All scheduled matches are listed so you can see which ones are upcoming (and decide if it’s worth watching).
On the “Bracket” tab they show the bracket for the final 16 teams and you can pick which teams advance to the next round to see how that impacts various W%.
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http://www.nhl.com/ice/draftsearch.htm?year=2018&team=&position=&round=
The NHL draft started Friday night. Very few college players get drafted, but some did.
1st round:
4. Tkachuk – BU (Hockey East)
7. Hughes – Michigan (B10)
2nd:
45. Perunovich – UMN-Duluth (NCHC)
3rd:
89. Hutsko – BC (Hockey East)
4th:
121. Green – Cornell (ECAC)
5th:
135. Kruse – BGSU (WCHA)
138. McGing – WMU (NCHC)
144. Hrenak – St. Cloud St. (NCHC)
6th:
182. Leonard – UMass (Hockey East)
7th:
None
That’s 9 college players drafted. For comparison, 11 American high school players and 12 players from the US Development Program (USA’s U18 team) also got drafted.
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The NHL draft is a bit of a different animal. Here’s a list from the USHL (highest level of Junior Hockey in the US*) that shows 57 players** who played in the US were drafted. Some these guys are not high school players anymore or college players yet.
*Unless you quit hockey, typically you head to the NCAA or a Pro league when you are done with Juniors.
**Includes international players
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Now that the B10 has announced their 2018 payout, Jon Wilner looks at how the P12 payouts will compare over the 6 years until their new TV deal can start.
The comps below assume that the rates of increase in payouts remain constant across the conferences.
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Notes on the following:
* Each conference reports on a different schedule, so projections are necessary in some cases.
* Pac-12 projection of $33.5 million for FY18 constitutes an 8.4 percent increase over the confirmed FY17 figure of $30.9 million. (The majority of the increase is sourced in the escalator clause in the Tier I deal.)
* To repeat: Projections assume comparable rates of increase across all conference.
*** Pac-12 vs. Big Ten
Big Ten: $51 million per school in FY18 (confirmed; see above link to Detroit News)
Pac-12: $33.5 million per school in FY18 (projected)
FY18 difference per school: $17.5 million
Pac-12 cumulative per-school deficit from FY19 to FY24 (example: USC vs. Ohio State): $105 million
*** Pac-12 vs. SEC
SEC: $42 million per school in FY18 (projected)
Pac-12: $33.5 million per school in FY18 (projected)
FY18 difference per school: $8.5 million
Pac-12 cumulative per-school deficit from FY19 to FY24 (example: Washington vs. LSU): $51 million
*** Pac-12 vs. Big 12
Big 12: $38 million per school in FY18 (confirmed)
Pac-12: $33.5 million per school in FY18 (projected)
FY18 difference per school: $4.5 million
Pac-12 cumulative per-school deficit from FY19 to FY24 (for example: Utah vs. Oklahoma State): $27 million
(Note: Big 12 figure includes an average of $1.5 million per school in Tier III media rights, which are generated on the campus level and not distributed by the conference office. Texas and Oklahoma collect far more annually through their deals with ESPN and Fox, respectively, but most schools are believed to earn $1 million – $2 million in net profit from local rights.)
*** Pac-12 vs. ACC
Pac-12: $33.5 million in FY18 (projected)
ACC: $28 million per school in FY18 (projected)
FY18 difference per school: $5.5 million
Pac-12 cumulative per-school deficit from FY19 to FY24 (for example: Arizona State vs. Wake Forest): $10 million
(Note: ACC Network launches in FY20, at which point school distributions are expected to jump to approximately $40 million. The Pac-12 total deficit of $10 million includes one year without, and five years with, the ACC Network.)
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The conference disagreed with my conclusions back then and continues to be optimistic about the Pac-12 Networks’ business model and the value of Pac-12 content during the next Tier I negotiations.
And yes: All signs point to a slew of bidders (legacy and new media) for the Pac-12 media rights starting in FY25 — the value of live sports is only increasing.
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This is the story to watch. How Larry Scott (if he’s even around) attempts to close that gap will either start realignment or end it.
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One thing we need to remember is that all but the ACC will have a new TV deal of some sort starting in the mid-20s. The P12 might get a big bump if other bidders jump in, but won’t that also be true for the others? The SEC on CBS deal is massively undervalued right now (~ $55M per year). The B10 is likely to at least continue a slow upward trend. The B12 is another wildcard, but they won’t lose value.
For the P12 to make a leap, either the others have to fall back (have their networks lose value perhaps) or someone has to discover new value in the P12 that’s been hidden.
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Maryland has a new permanent AD — its interim one. Damon Evans, formerly at Georgia until a DUI incident in 2010, was hired today. https://www.testudotimes.com/2018/6/25/17501348/damon-evans-maryland-athletic-director-bio-hired-georgia
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/06/disney-fox-approval-rsns/
The government has approved Disney’s purchase of Fox assets with the condition that Disney sells off the RSNs within 90 days.
As both Disney and rival Comcast expected, the regional sports networks fell under government scrutiny. According to Variety, the justice department filed a complaint in federal court earlier Wednesday to block Disney’s acquisitions of the RSNs, arguing that adding the networks to Disney’s existing sports properties — i.e. ESPN — would be anti-competitive.
Disney agreed to divest the RSNs as part of a proposed settlement.
It is worth noting that the government’s rationale is questionable. Quoting the head of the justice department antitrust division:
“American consumers have benefitted from head-to-head competition between Disney and Fox’s cable sports programming that ultimately has prevented cable television subscription prices from rising even higher. Today’s settlement will ensure that sports programming competition is preserved in the local markets where Disney and Fox compete for cable and satellite distribution.”
Disney acquiring the Fox RSNs would have had no impact on sports programming competition, as Disney does not currently compete in the RSN market. There are three primary RSN owners, Fox (22), Comcast (nine) and AT&T (three), and that would not have changed if one simply swapped Fox for Disney. In addition, it is hard to see how an ESPN with 22 RSNs would be dramatically more anti-competitive than present-day Fox Sports.
While the RSNs were thought to be a key to the deal when it was announced in December, it is likely the case that Disney did not think they were worth potentially jeopardizing the deal. Disney is not expected to sell back the RSNs to Fox, which Variety says has “little interest” in retaining them.
Will Comcast look to buy the RSNs? ATT&T/TW?
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https://www.multichannel.com/news/gray-tv-to-buy-raycom-for-3-6b
Gray TV is buying Raycom, including Raycom Sports.
Gray, based in Atlanta, currently owns or operates about 100 stations in 57 markets, while Raycom owns or provides services for 65 stations in 44 markets. The cash and stock deal, expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year, will create a 142-station powerhouse in 92 separate markets, reaching 24% of the TV homes in the U.S.
According to Gray TV, the combined company would have 62 stations that are ranked No. 1 in all-day ratings in their respective markets, according to Nielsen, the largest concentration of top-rated stations owned by any single broadcaster.
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The deal comes on the heels of another mega-broadcast deal – Sinclair Broadcast Group’s pending $3.9 billion purchase of Tribune Media, which is currently winding through the regulatory approval process.
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http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/
USA Today released their 2016-17 financial database today.
Tops in revenue:
1. UT – $215M ($0 in subsidy)
2. TAMU – $212M ($0)
3. OSU – $185.4M ($0)
4. UM – $185.2M ($281k)
5. AL – $174M ($2.9M)
6. UGA – $158M ($3.3M)
7. OU – $155M ($0)
8. UF – $149M ($1.6M)
9. LSU – $147.7M ($0)
10. Auburn – $147.5M ($3.6M)
B10:
14. PSU – $144M ($0)
15. WI – $143M ($2.8M)
18. IA – $131M ($650k)
21. MSU – $126M ($901k)
23. NE – $120M ($0)
25. MN – $116M ($14.8M)
28. IU – $106M ($2.6M)
33. IL – $97.4M ($3.3M)
34. RU – $96.9M ($33.1M)
37. UMD – $95M ($14.5M)
46. PU – $85M ($0)
Notes:
* Public schools only
* This was NE’s last year of a partial B10 payout ($26.0M vs $36.3M). They will get a full share of $51.1M for 2017-18.
* RU only got $12.7M. RU decided to copy UMD’s model and move some future revenue up to smooth their transition. RU will get $24.6M in 2017-18, $27.0M in 2018-19 and $29.4M in 2019-20 in their adjusted deal and “only” $44.5M in their first full year (should pay back about $9M per year for about 4 years).
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For some realignment relevance, let’s look at it by conference.
Schools in bold ran a deficit. Subsidy is in parentheses. Remember, public schools only. Accounting methods vary from school to school, so don’t take the numbers too exactly.
B10:
3. OSU – $185.4M ($0 in subsidy)
4. UM – $185.2M ($281k)
14. PSU – $144M ($0)
15. WI – $143M ($2.8M)
18. IA – $131M ($650k)
21. MSU – $126M ($901k)
23. NE – $120M ($0)
25. MN – $116M ($14.8M)
28. IU – $106M ($2.6M)
33. IL – $97.4M ($3.3M) -$3.3M deficit
34. RU – $96.9M ($33.1M) -$2.3M
37. UMD – $95M ($14.5M)
46. PU – $85M ($0) -$868k
ACC:
13. FSU – $145M ($7.5M in subsidy)
22. UL – $120M ($5.4M)
26. Clemson – $113M ($5.5M)
35. UNC – $96M ($8.8M)
39. UVA – $93M ($13.9M) -$7.5M deficit
44. VT – $87M ($8.9M) -$3.3M
47. NCSU – $84M ($6.6M) -$3.2M
51. GT – $82M ($7.7M) -$3.1M
The middle of the ACC is the bottom of the B10 and the top of the ACC lags the top of the B10. Half of the ACC ran a deficit versus less than one quarter of the B10. Considering that the B10 pays out $23M more this year than the ACC (number may drop by up to $10M once the ACCN starts), you can see how the financial pressure may build.
B12:
1. UT – $215M ($0 in subsidy)
7. OU – $155M ($0)
27. WV – $111M ($4.2M)
36. KU – $95M ($1.9M)
40. OkSU – $92M ($3.7M)
43. TT $89M ($5.8M)
45. KSU – $86M ($450k)
50. ISU – $83M ($2.1M)
The B12 is much closer to matching the B10 at the top than the ACC is, but their middles and bottoms are similar. One huge difference is that no B12 schools ran a deficit. Kudos to them for that.
P12:
12. UO – $145M ($271k)
20. UW – $129M ($3.7M)
29. UCLA – $104M ($2.7M)
30. ASU – $102M ($18.9M)
38. CU – $94M ($12.6M)
41. UA – $91M ($10.1M) -$780k
42. Cal – $91M ($0) -$16.0M
48. Utah – $84M ($12.4M)
52. OrSU – $79M ($7.1M) -$3.8M
53. WSU – $64M ($5.3M) -$7.5M
The P12 is very similar to the ACC in terms of revenues and the percentage of schools running a deficit. They use even larger subsidies to avoid more debt.
SEC:
2. TAMU – $212M ($0)
5. AL – $174M ($2.9M)
6. UGA – $158M ($3.3M)
8. UF – $149M ($1.6M)
9. LSU – $147.7M ($0)
10. Auburn – $147.5M ($3.6M)
11. UT – $146M ($0)
16. SC – $136M ($0)
17. UK – $131M ($0)
19. AR – $130M ($0)
24. MS – $118M ($2.8M)
31. MsSU – $100M ($0)
32. MO – $98M ($1.0M) -$4.6M
The SEC leads everyone in revenue and has just 1 school running a deficit. None of the schools are using a large subsidy either. It’s easy to see why the B10 and SEC are the most stable and secure conferences.
Next year the B10 should be neck and neck with the SEC. Assuming an extra $15M per school from TV, the B10 would have had 4 top 7 schools, 9 in the top 25 and all 13 in the top 35 this year. I expect everyone to be in the black next season, too.
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Realignment candidates:
ACC:
13. FSU – $145M ($7.5M in subsidy)
22. UL – $120M ($5.4M)
26. Clemson – $113M ($5.5M)
35. UNC – $96M ($8.8M)
39. UVA – $93M ($13.9M) -$7.5M deficit
44. VT – $87M ($8.9M) -$3.3M
47. NCSU – $84M ($6.6M) -$3.2M
51. GT – $82M ($7.7M) -$3.1M
B12:
1. UT – $215M ($0 in subsidy)
7. OU – $155M ($0)
36. KU – $95M ($1.9M)
I know the GOR probably has the ACC safe until 2034 or so, but you can see the vulnerability of the ACC schools. UVA has $21.4M in deficit+subsidy while the bottom 3 are around $10M. Even the top ACC schools use large subsidies, though. If the ACCN starts paying them $10M per year, UVA is still facing significant budget issues and the others will be borderline.
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https://www.podcastone.com/AP-Top-25-College-Football-Podcast
For your weekend enjoyment, here’s the AP Top 25 CFB podcast. They talk about which team will be the next first-timer to make the playoff (3 B10 teams are mentioned – PSU, UM, WI) among other things.
In four seasons of the College Football Playoff a total of nine programs have filled the 16 semifinal spots. Which teams could be next to crack into the football’s final four?
AP voter Matt Brown, an editor and writer for The Athletics’ All-American vertical, says Michigan or Penn State are among the most likely to be a first-time playoff participant. AP college football writer Ralph Russo suggests another Big Ten team or maybe Miami.
Brown joins Russo for the “AP Top 25 College Football Podcast” where they talk the history of people complaining about too many college football bowls, the future of the playoff and potential breakout teams for 2018. Could Boston College be this season’s North Carolina State in the Atlantic Coast Conference? What about Kansas State in the Big 12?
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https://www.podcastone.com/episode/EPISODE-55-Talking-about-playoffs
Heather Dinich appeared on the podcast in early May to talk about the CFP and scheduling among other issues. About 38 minutes long.
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A study verifies the danger of soccer headers, even for young children. Headers are generally banned in the US for players under 11 but the study showed issues for children even younger.
Headers are also bad for adults but unlikely to ever be banned.
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https://247sports.com/college/arizona-state/Article/QA-with-ASU-Vice-President-for-Athletics-Ray-Anderson-119403486/
A Q&A with ASU’s VP for Athletics touched on finances in the P12 and the philosophy in the P12 versus other P5 conferences.
CK: We’ve seen a significant increase in coaching salary pool for the revenue sports here at ASU in recent years, and the facilities are obviously being overhauled. Revenue is significantly increasing at programs across the country and has here as well. Do you feel there’s an arms race, so to speak, that is going on?
RA: There is some arms racing going on in college athletics. More so in other conferences than the Pac-12 I would say because our chancellors and presidents have determined that we’re a different model. We’re not concerned with having everything as good as Alabama or Georgia or others who are flush, sometimes it appears, with cash, because their athletics seem to be the only thing in town that motivates people. We’re OK with not being in that arm’s race. That being said, there’s always pressure to make sure that your facilities are at a good level. That you have the salary pools to attract and retain really good coaches and personnel. So there’s constantly that pressure. An arms race, I wouldn’t declare us or the Pac-12 in an arms race because I think our model is different. But are there arms race things going on outside the conference? Yeah.
CK: At the press conference announcing (previous football coach) Todd Graham’s dismissal you discussed the state of the Pac-12 being down, which then went 1-8 in bowl season, so you kind of foreshadowed that. The Pac-12 then had a bad performance in post-season, 0-3 in the NCAA Tournament. I saw some comments you made to Dennis Dodd about the state of the Pac-12. Do you feel like there’s a potential problem there in terms of how the Pac-12 is being monetized with the Pac-12 Networks and does it have what it needs to compete with other major conferences?
RA: I don’t think the Pac-12 has any emergency on its hands, by any stretch of the imagination. We did not have the type of seasons in the Pac-12 in football and basketball that we wanted, and certainly not in the postseason. I think there’s a real acknowledgment that we’ve got to figure out a way to get better. There’s also an acknowledgment that every now and again you’re going to have a bad year. Let’s up this was an aberration, which I happen to believe it was. That being said, you can’t be naive to believe the revenue gap between the Pac-12 and some of the other conferences, the SEC, the Big Ten in particular, mostly attributed to the differences in the television deals, are a challenge for us that we can’t take our eyes off of. I remain fully committed to the notion that it’s better to own your own business 100 percent. I’m fully committed to the notion as dictated by the presidents and chancellors to Larry Scott and the Pac-12 that we’re going to continue the path of owning 100 percent of our network through 2023-24, and then see where we are. If we get to there and we’re a free agent and these other suitors are out there, then we’ll do a really good deal and we’ll catch up. I’m very comfortable with staying that course. My concern that I articulated in comments to Dodd were that between 2023-24, are we going to continue to fall behind, and are you every going to make up that gap that could be created by not doing something between now and then? But that time is completely out of our control (at ASU athletics). That’s in the presidents’ and chancellors’ control. I’m all in for being entrepreneurial. Let’s wait and see if we can really hit it big and then make up the difference. In the meantime, we’d better be creative about competing with the resources we have or on our own creating additional resources we can invest.
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CK: What’s your philosophy on expanding sports and the way that spreads dollars wider and allows you to bring in more student-athletes versus lessening the focus of (revenue) toward certain things that may improve a football program, for example. How do you weigh those things?
RA: We are intentionally designed to be a broad, whole athletic department. Olympic sports matter. Women’s sports matter. We believe in the great development opportunity that varsity athletics, coupled with academic scholarship aid, what that does for people. The more opportunities that we can provide, and we’ve done it by adding four sports, is on purpose because we think the more opportunities you provide for student-athletes, the better off you’re going to be. We’re OK with taking on the financial challenges of financially supporting those things. Football is the primary driver, and basketball at most institutions. But we think the model whereby if successful football helps support other sports and makes those other sports also help themselves, it makes for a better overall experience. Our job is to then take the resources we have for football and men’s basketball and just make it work better than the others do it. We’ve got no conflict [internally]. We believe that, on base, providing more opportunities for student-athletes across all sports is better than just focusing primarily on football and basketball. That’s not who we are.
CK: So there’s no concerns about a competitive imbalance with the way programs across the country are pouring money into football recruiting operations and creative departments and those types of things?
RA: One of the things that’s going to create a competitive advantage is that some conferences are going to make a lot more money to put into all of their sports, and then some of those conferences are more concerned about putting that into football and basketball than they are the other sports. But that’s their model, that’s what they’ve decided is important to them. We’ve got a different model, a different set of things that we think bring value beyond just the football and basketball court. We’re very comfortable with our philosophy and approach, and that’s why I think in the Pac-12 you’ll see all of our institutions, on average, sponsoring more varsity sports than you’ll see in the Big 12 or SEC, in particular. A lot of those (programs) have 17, 18, 19 sports and focus more on football and basketball. Our model is, we’ve got 26 varsity sports and there are several in this conference that promote 30 or more, and it’s because that’s more important to us, to have more opportunities for more student athletes in various sports, including as many sports for women as we can possibly put out there under Title IX.
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CK: How much of a role does the stadium district (Novus Innovation Corridor) play in that and how is it coming along?
RA: The district is progressing well. It probably got off slower than anyone liked but the fact is there’s traction. I think when you see what’s going on with the construction [at the stadium], you’re seeing construction fences going around areas where they’re starting to give you an indication that activity is going to be underway. There are things getting ready to go under contract. It’s nothing I can control though I certainly have a cheerleading interest and making it go faster than not, but it’s starting to move.”
CK: How much of an advantage can that be from a financial standpoint?
RA: Longterm it can be a big advantage because the Novus Innovation Corridor’s purpose is to ultimately have commercial, residential, mixed use things that, in lieu of paying property tax are paying to a fund that is used to provide sustainability to our athletics facilities, including paying down the debt that we’ll take on [the stadium] and Wells Fargo and other improvements that we want to make in athletics. Nobody else in the country has that at this point.
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Anderson seems to be implying that the PAC is moving towards an Ivy League model for athletics. Certainly, he is dismissive of the B1G, SEC, ACC, Big12 model. That is likely a healthy attitude for everyone involved, especially the athletes, but it does look like a trend that will drop the PAC out of the P5. Again, there is nothing wrong with that. We live a few miles from Kenyon College; I worked for a while at Union College; and my wife spent her career at Wooster College. Division III sports are well-attended (not Ohio Stadium level), and the fans and athletes are enthusiastic. There are even excesses. But in some ways it is cleaner.
I worked 35 years as a faculty member at tOSU, so I have some experience for comparison.
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Ongoing budget cuts and financial problems at the University of Missouri related to 2015 protests. https://www.thecollegefix.com/post/46322/
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In 2016, the Missouri legislature passed a budget bill which contained a $3.8 million cut for the University of Missouri’s administration. This was openly billed as a reprisal for their handling of the 2015 protests, according to The Columbia Missourian. A total of $12 million was cut from the university’s budget that year.
Last year Missouri governor Eric Greitens withheld a further $22 million of funding from the university system in 2017 to maintain a balanced budget as required by the state’s constitution.
Greitens proposed another $43 million in cuts to the University of Missouri’s budget for this year, though legislators ultimately settled on a $2 million cut.
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Speaking in a phone interview, Representative Kip Kendrick told The Fix that for the 2017 fiscal year, the legislature specifically directed cuts at the University of Missouri administration and the Columbia campus where the protests took place. In the same year, the state established and funded a commission to review the University of Missouri system.
Reached via email, Missouri state senator Tom Hurst ascribed decreasing enrollment and state support to the university’s response to the 2015 protests: “Couple of years ago, whenever all the protests were taking place on the campus, many students decided they did not want that atmosphere and attended different universities. From what I’ve seen we did not lose those students to other states, they just went to other universities within the state.”
“Given that it seems like MU does not need the funding, but some of the other universities in the State could use a little extra help because they did the right thing,” Hurst added.
It seems counterproductive to keep punishing the school when the administration (president and chancellor) resigned in 2015. How are things supposed to improve if the state won’t even support the school and the new administration?
In fall 2015, the semester that saw the protests, total Mizzou enrollment stood at 35,448. In fall of 2017, that number was down to 30,870. Freshman enrollments have dropped significantly, with the smallest class in over a decade matriculating in 2017, according to The Kansas City Star.
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“I applied to MU, was accepted, I was assigned housing and I toured the campus. I was really all set to go. Then I got my tuition statement. Despite being awarded the Chancellor’s scholarship, the Bright Flight scholarship, and having my family income be in one of the lowest categories, I was still going to to have to take out a $10,000 loan per year.”
“Wash U actually gave me enough financial aid to cover my tuition, housing and food in full. After that it was an easy choice. MU was not willing at all to help me go to school and Wash U made sure I could go,” Rowland said.
WU is a private school with a large endowment and high tuition and hasn’t had a recent hit to their funding. Of course they can provide more financial aid to a poor student. But their average student pays $33k per year.
Tom Hurst, the state senator, said that his daughter chose Missouri State University because “MU is more concerned about their image and MSU was more concerned about the student.”
Hurst said the problem is not new: He attended the University of Missouri and said the same atmosphere prevailed. “I feel like I had to educate myself versus having the professors educate me. They didn’t care if I showed up or not, they were going to get paid anyway,” he said.
Yes, senator, education is work for the student. It’s supposed to be challenging.
Earlier this year the university announced that freshman enrollment increased by 14 percent for the fall 2018 semester. Freshman enrollment still remains below that of fall 2015.
So this may turn into a 5 year blip for MU.
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Click to access June29overallDI.pdf
The final Director’s Cup standings are out.
There are some slight scoring changes from previous years.
http://www.nacda.com/sports/directorscup/spec-rel/050417aaf.html
The committee reviewed the overall scoring structure and based the new scoring off of the following:
* Adjustment of “count maximums” based on actual sport sponsorship averages/medians
** We utilized the sports sponsorship and Participation rate report from the NCAA and were provided final numbers from the NAIA office.
* Requirement of predetermined sport “counters” in point determination which varies by division
** The sport “counters” were on team bracketed sports.
* Adjustment of gender requirements
** Since the NCAA and NAIA currently embrace and abide by the federal law (Title IX) that requires equal participation opportunities within its athletics programs, the previous gender requirements (equal sports scored in each gender) that have been used were no longer deemed necessary.
The following changes will be made beginning with the 2017-18 year with regard to the scoring:
Division I: Count 19 sports with the following breakdowns (decreased by 1, 19.1 avg.)
• Four of which must be Baseball and Men’s Basketball, Women’s Basketball and Women’s Volleyball
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The scoring structure for the past 20-plus years has been the following:
* Division I: 20 total sports scored (10 men’s, 10 women’s)
I guess dropping to 19 sports makes sense based on how they score but I think their philosophy is wrong. To me they should combine two scores to make their ranking:
1. Average points in all sports offered by each school. This makes the size of the AD irrelevant and just determines success rates.
2. A scoring system similar to their current one but that weights sports based on the number of teams participating and counts all sports to reward broad ADs. Right now #1 always earns 100 points but #1 in hoops is much harder than #1 in water polo. I’d try something like 10 * sqrt(number of teams). That would make 350 teams -> 187 pts while 60 teams -> 77 pts. That gives some extra value to more common sports without devaluing the other sports too much.
Anyway, the rankings:
1. Stanford – 1442
2. UCLA – 1326
3. UF – 1216
4. USC – 1147
5. UT – 1143.25
6. MI – 1131
7. OSU – 1118
8. UGA – 1046.35
9. FSU – 1038.75
10. TAMU – 1005.5
B10:
12. PSU – 978.25
19. MN – 852
22. WI – 804
34. NW – 644
36. IL – 592
39. PU – 585.5
44. NE – 553
49. IN – 491
50. MSU – 475.75
53. UMD – 467.5
54. IA – 457.5
107. RU – 170
Worst P5s (those outside the top 65):
SEC – 55. Vandy
B12 – 72. KSU
P12 – 80. WSU
B10 – 107. RU
ACC – 95. BC, 111. Pitt, 121. GT
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https://www.omaha.com/huskers/nebraska-posts-worst-ever-finish-th-place-in-all-sports/article_25e71e85-a9b9-5227-8eed-a8da09f4f475.html
This was NE’s worst finish ever in the Director’s Cup and their 3 worst finishes ever have come since joining the B10. NE was a regular in the top 10 back in the 90s thanks in part to football dominance. They’ve only had 2 top 20 finishes (19th in 2006, 17th in 2010) since 2002, so the drop off began long before NE moved. The writer blames Shawn Eichorst (AD in 2013-2017), but I think the issues are bigger than that. As more schools have started taking non-revenue sports seriously, NE has slid back. I think this is partly due to all the extra TV money out there.
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This month from the Dude (@ theDudeofWV) on twitter.
On B12 revenue:
* 2018 – $37M per school
* Will hit $40M soon and should hit $45M in 2023 (he calls their deal backloaded, I’d say it’s normal escalation), with tier 3 money on top of that.
As a reminder, the P12 is projected at $38.1M in 2023 and not hitting $40M until 2024.
On B12 TV deals:
The Big 12 is going to be the first conference to go with an online partner for primary TV rights. I expect ESPN to be one partner and Fox to be out.
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ESPN, despite what many think, wants the Big 12 intact. Fox is thinking about getting out of sports other than on their OTA channel. That’s why they sold their regional networks.
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Numbers lie. On the surface B1G ratings look great…until you look under the hood and see how the top four dominate TV ratings and the other underperform. ACC is like that too.
The top 4 of 14 isn’t enough? How many schools in the other P5s match the B10’s top 4 in ratings? Maybe 2 each in the P12, B12 and ACC? The SEC probably goes deeper, but they’d be the outlier. The B10’s ratings look good because they are.
On realignment
This is just my opinion… but if I had free money to bet I would bet that the Pac 12 and Big 12 have some type of merger.
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It’s a foregone conclusion that if ND joins the ACC as a full member that WVU will be #16 to ND’s #15. I feel that the next round of realignment will force ND’s hand.
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[re: WV isn’t snooty enough]
That argument died when the ACC added Louisville. Interest has already been expressed. It’s not a secret WVU is at the top of the ACC’s list.
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[re: WV has a bad rep as hillbillies]
How do I respond without being mean? The ACC has changed. WVU has changed. The ACC is infinitely more valuable to ESPN with WVU as #16.
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There’s not a program that would be available that can match WVU’s value to the ACC.
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UCONN would be the alternate choice for the ACC, but WVU’s football program means the Mountaineers get asked first.
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UCONN is behind #3 on the ACC’s list. If WVU can’t (or wont) leave the Big 12 then UCONN would join the ACC with ND.
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Take long hard look at financials. UCONN’s subsidy is huge but their revenues are considerable for hoops. Plus the ACC would want to avoid market duplication & ESPN would want to avoid it too. Not a lot of options after WVU.
It seems to me that UConn would put up a decent fight for that #16 slot. The ACC has ignored both of them repeatedly. If it’s not a secret that WV is #1 on the ACC’s list, it sure isn’t widely known. And infinitely more valuable with WV as #16? Any real value would come from ND as #15. #16 will bring marginal value at best.
On revenue numbers:
* WV (3rd in B12) would be 4th in ACC
* ASU would be 4th in B12 while CU would be 5th, UAZ would be 6th and Cal would be 7th
WVU’s fan base is one of the most valuable in the nation. Consider the revenue WVU generates as compared to the state’s population.
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Looking at ACC revenue numbers… wow… I may have to rethink my desire to see WVU in the ACC… the haircut would be more than TV money.
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ACC schools should be very, very grateful that ESPN was willing to add money for the ACCN. But any doubts that WVU wouldn’t be welcomed need to look at ACC revenue numbers. They tell a story.
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But I’m not sure the ACC doesn’t need WVU more than WVU needs the ACC.
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According to the Dude, the ACC needs WVa. Of course also according to him, I take for granted that the B1G, and the SEC would also both be really lucky to be able to steal WVa. The academic powers in the ACC would need to be more than desperate to take WVa. I am sure that UVa, Duke, etc. would be thrilled.
With Clemson at the top of the football heap, with Miami rising, and with FSU, I am not at sure that the ACC will “sell it’s academic soul” for WVa football.
As far the WVa fan base being one of the most valuable in the country, what do they bring in eyeballs to cable, streaming, etc? The population of WVa is under two million and is less than it was in 1950. To look at revenue compared to population may be fun, but doesn’t prove much. Connecticut, for example, has double the population of WVa and a lot more money as a state.
If the Big 12 and PAC do have some sort of merger, contrary to the opinion of the Dude, it looks like WVa will be one of the leftover programs.
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I find his combination of supposedly sourced information and extreme WV bias mildly entertaining. He’s even occasionally correct about something.
1. He’s right that the B12 leads the P12 and ACC in revenue. That should provide some stability for the B12. The problem, of course, is that the B10 and SEC are well ahead of most of the B12.
2. His speculation about the B12 being the first to partner with an online company is interesting. I’d tend to think the P12 might be the first for that based on where Silicon Valley is located and what schools’ alumni run those companies.
3. As I said, I think he’s dead wrong about the B10’s TV ratings. The networks don’t care if it’s 4 or 7 teams driving them as long as the numbers are high.
4. His realignment speculation seems wrong to me, but not provably so.
a. I don’t see the benefit of merging the B12 and P12 to either side. There are too many school with minimal value for the benefits to be worth the hassles. Combining the top 10-12 (UW, UO, Stanford, USC, CU, UA, UT, OU, KU, TT) in one conference would have financial advantages but I don’t think either side is willing or able to cut ties from that many rivals.
b. I haven’t heard that WV is the ACC’s top target, but it’s possible. Even he agrees UConn is the most likely other option. WV’s academics might be an issue but they did just approve UL. How much worse (if any) is WV? And WV’s fan base is rabid if small. That’s better than schools like WF can manage.
5. I think WV is a great geographic fit for the ACC but not a great cultural fit. But it could help the ACC in football and revenue while the ACC would help WV’s academics. It could be mutually beneficial despite WV making less money. WV might enjoy having an ACCN, too.
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https://fishduck.com/author/walter-gray/
This guy wrote a series of 5 articles to describe his proposed 64-team CFB playoff, partially inspired by the World Cup. The page linked above contains links to all 5. As with any such proposal it has zero chance of ever happening, but it’s a long off-season.
In a nutshell:
16 8-team conferences (128 teams) split into 4 regions. The conferences are all regional and mix P5 and G5 teams. Everyone plays a 7 game round robin to start the season.
You can see the conferences at https://fishduck.com/college-playoff-conferences-64-teams/
For B10 teams:
West Region:
IA, NE – AF, CU, CSU, KU, KSU, ISU
East/Southeast Region:
UMD, RU – UConn, WV, Marshall, Navy, UVA, VT
North/Northeast Region:
MI, MSU, NW, WI, MN – CMU, EMU, WMU
IL, IU, PU – AR St, MO, NIU, Ball St, ND
OSU – Akron, BGSU, UC, Kent St, Miami (OH), Ohio, Toledo
PSU – Army, BC, Buffalo, UMass, Pitt, Syracuse, Temple
Yes, that’s 6 different conferences with multiple major rivalries split up. He even mentions OSU vs MI as a major rivalry and how his system will enhance most rivalries. I think it’s safe to say he needs to rethink his conferences.
Back to his plan. The top 4 teams in each conference advance to the 64 team playoff. The bottom 4 teams advance to the consolation playoff (they still have 5 more games to play too).
1st round:
Each #1 plays a #4 seed from another conference in the same region and #2s play #3s. The specific matchups are randomly assigned.
2nd round:
The 32 winners from round 1 are randomly paired up nationally for their 2nd game. Likewise with the 32 losers from round 1 as this is a double elimination tournament.
3rd round:
The 16 2-0 teams are paired randomly, as are the 32 1-1 teams and the 8 0-2 teams.
4th round:
8 3-0 teams play randomly, 24 2-1 teams play, 24 1-2 teams play, 8 0-3 teams play.
5th round (12th game of the season):
4 4-0 teams play, 16 3-1 teams play, 24 2-2 teams play, 16 1-3 teams play, 4 0-4 teams play.
After 12 games:
2 5-0 teams – go to championship
10 4-1 teams – either go to the championship bracket or are bowl eligible
20 3-2 teams – bowl eligible
20 2-3 teams – maybe bowl eligible
10 1-4 teams – done
2 0-5 teams – done
He gets less certain when he gets to the postseason and offers multiple options.
1. 2 team NCG, others go to bowls
2. 4 team playoff with the top 2 4-1 teams in, others go to bowls
3. 6 team playoff (byes for 5-0 teams), others go to bowls
4. 8 team playoff, others go to bowls
At the very end he poses some questions and answers that start to address the many glaring logistical issues with this.
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Random factoid from the twitterverse (@ SportsPac12, /SportsPac12/status/1001854853415452673)
Combined Football & Basketball W% over the last decade:
1. Ohio State .748
2. Wisconsin .732
3. FSU .722
4t. Louisville .719
4t. Michigan State .719
6. Oregon .682
7. Oklahoma .668
8. Notre Dame .665
9. West Virginia .661
10. Cincinnati .654
I assume he/they averaged the 2 W%. Still, I’m surprised to not see hoop kings like UK and UNC or football schools like AL or Clemson. They had to have been close based on their 1-sport dominance.
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Kyle Snyder first male two time B1G athlete of the year.
https://www.teamusa.org/USA-Wrestling/Features/2018/June/28/Kyle-Snyder-Big-10-Athlete-of-the-Year
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I’m happy for him as he’s very deserving. The only caveat is that the award has only been around since 1982 so some of the old greats never had a chance.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23866176/which-schools-produce-most-draft-talent
Which schools produce the most draft picks across all sports (weighted and unweighted) over the past 10 years.
The Ultimate Draft Ranking comprises data from the past 10 draft classes in the following leagues: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS, WNBA, MLL (lacrosse) and NFP (softball).
With a major assist from Matt Williams and the team at ESPN Stats & Information, we gathered data from the past 10 drafts in every league in which U.S. collegiate players are fed into a top professional tier. Our formula? See the methodology below.
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Draft choices for the eight leagues that were part of our survey were weighted as part of a formula that took into account the size of the draft pool — this prevented Kentucky’s and Duke’s successes in the 60-pick NBA draft, for instance, from being dwarfed by colleges that produced more players for the 256-pick NFL draft.
Professional leagues with fewer than 10 years worth of draft data (e.g. professional women’s lacrosse, hockey and soccer leagues) were not considered, nor were professional leagues that do not plausibly represent the top professional tier in North America (the NBA G League), nor were leagues with major variations between the college and professional games (men’s box lacrosse, indoor soccer).
For this exercise, college baseball selections were limited to the top 10 rounds of the 40-round draft. All other draft classes were accounted for in their entirety.
Colleges were given credit for players who were selected directly from their school into the draft — juniors hockey draftees with collegiate experience were not considered, nor were high school baseball draftees who attended college after being selected.
Scores:
1. UNC – 1706.6
2. UMD – 1580.4
3. Duke – 1482
4. UK – 1351.9
5. ND – 1291.7
6. SU – 1206.7
7. UCLA – 1180.4
8. UF – 1152.1
9. OU – 1110.9
10. OSU – 1051.9
Other B10:
20. MI – 894.9
Worst P5s:
Washington State – 104. 7
Texas Tech – 134
Illlinois – 162.3
TCU* – 180
Kansas State – 199.7
3 B12 schools and no Rutgers. Interesting.
Top G5s:
#12 UConn – 1032.4
South Florida – 458.9
Akron – 394.7
Creighton – 358.9
Georgetown – 284.6
A good sign for UConn in their bid to join a P5.
Total draftees:
North Carolina -140
Florida – 122
LSU – 122
Notre Dame – 109
Maryland – 107
UCLA – 107
Ohio State – 105
Florida State – 102
Oklahoma – 102
Alabama – 99
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/07/2018-preseason-big-ten-team-by-team-predictions-for-every-game
Predictions for every game all 14 B10 teams play this year. Read the article for the results of each game and records for everyone.
The resulting final standings:
East:
1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
T3. Michigan
T3. Penn State
5. Maryland
6. Rutgers
7. Indiana
West:
1. Wisconsin
T2. Iowa
T2. Nebraska
T2. Northwestern
T2. Purdue
T6. Illinois
T6. Minnesota
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/07/02/tyler-hilinski-suicide-cte-research-concussions-football
An article by a CTE researcher after the WSU QB’s suicide. Excerpt below:
I wish I was more surprised by the diagnosis. One thing I consistently struggle with is that nearly all of the college and professional football players whose brains we’ve looked at had the disease. And even if you factor in who the sample is coming from, families should not be right 95% of the time at guessing this.
This is the third active college football player that we know about that had CTE. We’ve seen CTE in football players who just played a few seasons. So we don’t know where the floor is. But it’s safe to assume that one season of football in theory could give you CTE. The risk is not zero after one season. It just goes up each additional year you play.
We’ve seen it in kids as young as 17. But now, we’re talking about the youngest when he stopped playing football was 14. We recently had a case of a young man who had post-concussion syndrome in eighth grade. He played five years of football, seven years of ice hockey, baseball. But had never really played a sport after the eighth grade. He never got better from his post-concussion syndrome and he also died by suicide at the age of 20. He had Stage 1 as well.
There’s two discussions after stories like this publish. We have to divide them. One is the discussion about whether his CTE was caused by playing football. And there’s less intelligent pushback on that these days. But it’s still strong because people see the game under threat, and there are a lot of people who are more focused on protecting this abstract concept of the game than the real concept of the people who play the game. It wasn’t that long ago that the NFL was in complete denial and just said CTE doesn’t exist and that was the stance of a lot of people until the last five years.
But where there’s a really fair debate is: did CTE play a role in the decisions that Tyler and others made that led to their suicide? And we can’t answer that. But it’s absolutely something we should discuss. Because there’s a known and incredibly strong relationship between concussions and increased risk of suicide. Most studies peg it as a three to four times greater risk of suicide, just from one concussion.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/a-national-college-football-injury-report-may-be-coming-soon-if-big-ten-ads-get-their-way/
The B10 wants the NCAA to develop an injury reporting system since the Supreme Court legalized sports betting nationwide.
The conference’s athletic directors proposed to the NCAA Football Oversight Committee in June what would be a first-ever weekly national injury reporting mandate. The ADs claim an injury report is necessary to protect the integrity of the sport.
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With the cross-country growth of sports betting in its infancy, it is becoming imperative that injury information be accurate and widely available.
“We have to be more transparent,” Ohio State AD Gene Smith said during a National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics panel last week. “In football, we’re going to kill this [idea of] gamesmanship around injuries.”
Smith added: “We don’t know if we want to report as many days as the NFL, but clearly on Mondays if somebody is injured from Saturday and you know they’re not going to play the following Saturday because they broke their leg, why not just say that?”
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Sources tell CBS Sports that the oversight committee was receptive but tabled further consideration of the measure following its June meeting. It’s not clear how soon the proposal could become permanent legislation as it first needs to be reviewed and approved by the committee.
“It would be a modified version of what the NFL has in place,” Smith said. “If any of our members have any ideas, we need to get that in place now. I see some of these things being implemented to be pretty simple.”
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The main issue is how to get around student privacy laws — most notably the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA). Essentially, athletes would have to consent to have their injury information released publicly.
“It could be interesting,” Guerrero added. “If you don’t get 100 percent of your players willing to allow you to do it [then it could be a problem].”
Administrators across the country are concerned not only about the new legal landscape but the dissemination of accurate information from their programs. Several at the NACDA convention complained that sports gambling puts more pressure on them and their schools.
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The NCAA said last week it would not seek so-called “integrity fees” from sports gambling. The idea of these fees gained traction after the Supreme Court decision. Some schools hinted they might want part of a state’s gambling “handle” to beef up compliance staff.
To date, Marshall and West Virginia are the only FBS programs that have come to an agreement with their state government for an integrity fee.
I don’t see HIPAA as a huge problem because you don’t need to release details. Simply report the players’ status for the game (likely, doubtful, out) and maybe a vague description like hockey uses (upper body injury, lower body injury, etc).
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/powerful-gop-rep-jim-jordan-accused-turning-blind-eye-sexual-n888386
The sex abuse scandal at OSU (Dr. Richard Strauss, team doctor for wrestling from the mid-70s to late 90s) is getting worse. Former assistant coach and current Congressman Jim Jordan has been accused of knowing about the abuse and ignoring it.
Jordan, who was assistant wrestling coach at the university from 1986 to 1994, has repeatedly said he knew nothing of the abuse until former students began speaking out this spring, and continued to deny it on Tuesday. His denials, however, have been met with skepticism and anger from some former members of the wrestling team.
Three former wrestlers told NBC News that it was common knowledge that Strauss showered regularly with the students and inappropriately touched them during appointments, and said it would have been impossible for Jordan to be unaware; one wrestler said he told Jordan directly about the abuse.
Former head coach Russ Hellickson, Jordan’s mentor, said in a recent video — made by Mike DiSabato, a former wrestler — that Hellickson had told Strauss that he was being too “hands on” with students.
DiSabato, whose allegations against Strauss prompted Ohio State to open its investigation, called Jordan a “liar.”
“I considered Jim Jordan a friend,” DiSabato said. “But at the end of the day, he is absolutely lying if he says he doesn’t know what was going on.”
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Dunyasha Yetts, who wrestled at Ohio State in 1993 and 1994, said he and others told Jordan about Strauss.
“I remember I had a thumb injury and went into Strauss’ office and he started pulling down my wrestling shorts,” he said. “I’m like, what the f— are you doing? And I went out and told [former head coach] Russ [Hellickson] and Jim what happened. I was not having it. They went in and talked to Strauss.”
Yetts said he and his teammates talked to Jordan numerous times about Strauss.
“For God’s sake, Strauss’s locker was right next to Jordan’s and Jordan even said he’d kill him if he tried anything with him,” Yetts said.
Nothing like getting a Congressman involved to ratchet things up.
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tOSU President Drake has sent the whole university two or three emails the last few months soliciting information regarding Strauss. Strauss died 13 years ago, so he cannot be punished, but some of his colleagues are still around, and they might be liable.
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I know that alumni who attended during those years received them, too.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-footballs-greatest-teams-the-best-season-from-every-big-ten-program/
The best teams ever for each of the B10 members with descriptions. I think he has a bit of a recency bias.
IL – 1914*
IN – 1945 (only undefeated season)
IA – 1958* (only national title)
UMD – 1951 (non-title year but won a title in 1953)
MI – 1947*
MSU – 1965* (lost their bowl, though)
MN – 1940*
NE – 1995*
NW – 1995 (1st B10 title since 1936, 1st winning record since 1971)
OSU – 2014*
PSU – 1994 (non-title year but it’s debatable)
PU – 1943 (non-title year but claims a title in 1931)
RU – 2006 (first bowl win ever)
WI – 2017
* – national title winner
IN, NW, PU and RU have never won a national title.
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Brian – without stirring the pot too much, it should be noted that Iowa’s 1958 title was only recognized by the FWAA. My LSU Tigers won the AP, UPI, and every other title that year.
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I know, but Iowa claims it and that’s the only title they claim. Many older title years have multiple teams claiming them.
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The best year for national champions was 1970. Ohio State, Texas and Nebraska all were ranked national championship by one agency or another.
Now, isn’t that more interesting than any silly playoff system?
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In 1869, Rutgers beat Princeton, 6 to 4. Since that was the only game, seems like a claim to a national title.
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But that wasn’t the only game. They played again the following week and Princeton won 8-0. That makes the cumulative score 12-6 in favor of Princeton in their 2 games. If anyone won the title, it was Princeton.
But since there were only 2 teams and the rules were based on soccer (no running with the ball, etc), nobody gets a college football national title for that season.
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Can we get Princeton into the B1G, so they could replay those games every year? The ultimate rivalry.
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There was some brief talk of a Rutgers Princeton game in 2019, but that was a very quick conversation. Rutgers will play UMass, the fourth oldest football program. Supposedly there will be a nationwide celebration. https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2017/06/rutgers_princeton_150_college_football.html
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/bigten/2018/07/06/maryland-subpoenaed-fbi-investigation-college-basketball-recruiting/763033002/
UMD was subpoenaed twice as part of the FBI investigation into college hoops.
The University of Maryland confirmed Friday that it has received two grand jury subpoenas stemming from the federal investigation into corruption in college basketball.
In a statement provided to USA TODAY Sports and other media outlets, the university said it received the first subpoena on March 15 and the second on June 29.
“The University complied with the subpoenas by providing responsive records,” the university said in the statement. “None of the responsive records shows evidence of any violations of applicable laws or NCAA bylaws by University coaches, staff or players. The University has cooperated and will continue to cooperate fully with the ongoing federal investigation.”
One subpoena was about a player and a coach. The second was about a recruit.
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Click to access ConcussionAbstractAAOS2017.pdf
The most dangerous high school sport per capita for concussions as a percentage of total injuries is girls soccer, at 27%. Football is at 24% with girls basketball just behind at 23% and boys soccer at 22%.
To our knowledge, this is the first study to report that concussions now account for a higher proportion of injuries in girls soccer than boys football. The concussion rate for girls soccer is also increasing rapidly, and is now nearly tied with boys football and 3-fold higher than boys soccer.
How long until girls soccer bans headers and/or makes the girls wear helmets?
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Someone has proposed eliminating the header in soccer as a large percentage of long-term soccer players, especially the pros, have some sort of brain damage.
Helmets will not prevent concussions. Concussions come from sudden head accelerations, and helmets have only a small effect on that. Helmets prevent head lacerations and some skull fractures.
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Soccer helmets (some goalies wear them) are soft, not hard like football helmets. They are designed to cushion impacts against the goal frame or from accidental collisions. As far as I know it is unknown whether they actually reduce concussions or not. I doubt they make them worse, though, so no harm in wearing one.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/07/09/bcs-history-20th-anniversary-controversy-tennessee-florida-state
All week, SI.com is running a series of articles about the BCS. Part 1 is the basic history leading up to and through the BCS years
All week, SI will look back at a system that drew a bright line between college football’s castes, trusted computer algorithms to rank teams and eventually ticked off enough people to bring about the creation of the College Football Playoff. The BCS was the bridge between the poll era and the CFP, and it had a profound effect on the game and the power structure of major college athletics. To understand why a consortium of bowl games and conferences caused so much drama and so much change in a 16-season period, it helps to look back at the landscape 10 years prior to its formation before examining how the BCS reshaped the national landscape.
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After crowning split national champs following the 1990 and ’91 seasons, college football’s power brokers began trying to create a group of conferences and bowls that would make it easier to match No. 1 and No. 2 more often at season’s end. The result was the Bowl Coalition, which matched SEC champ Alabama and Big East champ Miami in the Sugar Bowl at the end of its first season but dissolved and reformed as the Bowl Alliance prior to the 1996 season. The Coalition and the Alliance suffered from the same fatal flaw: Neither could get the Rose Bowl on board. That meant the Big Ten and Pac-10 champs remained off limits. But by the time the 1996 season kicked off, the Big Ten and Pac-10 had already agreed to something called the Super Alliance. After the 1998 season, some combination of two teams from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10 or SEC would play for the national title. “It was important to us to have a national championship within the context of the traditional bowl system,” Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany told the Chicago Sun-Times in July 1996. “We thought this was an important thing, to make the bowl system healthier, because we don’t want an NFL-style playoff. But we understood America’s appetite for a 1–2 game.”
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The first season of the BCS had delivered exactly what it promised—a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup and a national title that didn’t need to be split. The next few years delivered mostly satisfactory results. (Nebraska getting into the title game over Oregon in 2001 was largely ignored because whoever played Miami was going to get pasted.) The bulk of the complaints came from members of the “non-BCS” conferences, who hated being considered second-class citizens. Then things got wonky.
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The end of the 2003 season forced a change in the ranking formula that kept the computers as one-third of the mix but reduced the number of computer rankings to six and called for the formula to toss a team’s highest and lowest computer ranks. Meanwhile, the assault on the BCS continued from the leagues outside the chosen six. Threats of legal action and calls for congressional intervention scared the BCS conferences enough to throw the other five leagues a crumb; beginning with the 2004 season, if a team from a non-BCS league could finish in the top 12 of the BCS standings, it would earn an automatic berth into a BCS bowl. If BCS supporters thought this would satisfy everyone, they were wrong. The events of the 2004 season would ultimately bring about the demise of the BCS.
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You’ll learn quite a bit more later this week about the polls in the aftermath of the 2004 season, but here’s the Reader’s Digest version. The Associated Press, realizing media members shouldn’t be directly affecting the story they’re reporting on (who plays for college football’s national title), pulled its ranking from the BCS formula in late December 2004. Meanwhile, fans and media demanded that coaches poll voters reveal their final ballots after Cal was denied an at-large berth and Texas was awarded a berth in the Rose Bowl.
The changes did produce less controversy in the title game selections, but the BCS produced arguably its greatest unintended effect during these middle years. The decision to favor six conferences over the other five had clearly delineated college football’s castes. The only way to change a program’s fortune was to somehow win a golden ticket into one of the chosen leagues.
… Some commissioners and athletic directors realized that the real power lay not in membership in a BCS conference but in having a television deal so valuable that a league couldn’t be left out of the power structure no matter how much it changed. When the BCS formed, the ACC and Big East were essentially equals. But ACC commissioner John Swofford, who is in fact a ninja, realized two things: Football would drive every decision, and he needed to shore up his league’s flanks to avoid getting picked apart as power conferences sought bigger TV deals near the end of the new century’s first decade.
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Conference realignment raged in the background of the 2010 and ’11 seasons. The BCS had survived a challenge from Slive and Swofford—who wanted either a four-team playoff or an extra game to determine a champion—in 2008 and remained in place until the end of the ’13 season. But 2012 would bring another vote, and one final BCS controversy would doom the system and usher in the playoff era.
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A day after the [2011] bowl selections were announced, Big 12 athletic directors voted in a straw poll to support scrapping the BCS in favor of a four-team playoff. The Big East had been ripped to shreds, so its vote didn’t really count anymore. With the ACC, Big 12 and SEC in favor of a playoff and new Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott relatively agnostic about the postseason, the BCS stood no chance. It would be replaced by a system that is more fun, more interesting, more lucrative and just as controversial.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2018-college-football-hot-seat-rankings-evaluating-job-security-of-all-129-fbs-coaches/
Dennis Dodd’s annual hot seat rating for all I-A coaches.
His scale:
Rating – What it means (# of Coaches)
5 – Win or be fired (6)
4 – Start improving now (10)
3 – Pressure is mounting (19)
2 – All good … for now (42)
1 – Safe and secure (41)
0 – Untouchable (11)
B10:
IL – 5 (was a 2 last year)
RU – 4 (1)
MD – 3 (1)
IN – 2 (1)
MN – 2 (1)
MI – 2 (0)
IA – 1
MSU – 1
PSU – 1
PU – 1
WI – 1
NW – 0 (1)
NE – 0
OSU – 0
P5 coaches in trouble:
5 – KU’s Beatty, IL’s Smith (he gives him a 4 in the article below)
4 – RU’s Ash, TT’s Kingsbury, CU’s McIntyre
See https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/hot-seat-rankings-five-college-football-coaches-with-their-jobs-on-the-line-in-2018/ for details on them.
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https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2018/07/the_next_rutgers_pros_cons_of_16_candidates_if_big.html
NJ.com did a bit of a Big Ten Expansion Index of their own. They break down 16 candidates to join the B10 in the future. They are realistic when giving the reasons why a move is unlikely to happen for each school. they bring up some good discussion points, too.
The schools (see article for details):
ND
OU and UT
Others – AZ, Army, Buffalo, Cincinnati, CU, ISU, KU, Navy, Rice, Temple, UConn, UMass, WV
The basically dismiss most of them out of hand in their comments about them, which is a good thing. Out of all of these, I think we’d agree only 4 (ND, UT, OU, KU) have any realistic hope of joining any time soon. Most of the others have glaring issues that would keep them out.
But in their comments about ND, they basically add several more candidates.
Due to its status as a full ACC member for all sports but football (where it is basically a de facto member), Notre Dame is part of the ACC’s grant of media rights deal, which extends through the 2035-36 academic year and all but boxes in all ACC teams in the meantime. That’s why ACC schools (and SEC schools, which also have a long-term GOR) are not serious candidates to be picked off if/when the carousel starts spinning again. The SEC’s main television deal with CBS will be up after 2023, though.
If something unforeseen was to happen, though, and ACC schools became realistically available, the Big Ten (and SEC) would likely pounce. The SEC would likely target Duke and North Carolina (both AAU members) as its top priorities. The Big Ten could do the same, or angle for Georgia Tech (another AAU member) and N.C. State in an effort to open up the Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham markets.
Boston College, Pitt, Syracuse, Virginia and Virginia Tech could also be potential Big Ten targets, but those schools would be second-tier candidates. Pitt and Virginia are also AAU members.
ACC – Duke, UNC, GT, NCSU, BC, Pitt, SU, UVA, VT
I don’t see any interest in NCSU, BC or Pitt at this point. SU would have a small chance (slightly above UConn), hurt by their shift away from AAU priorities.
VT is a borderline case to me. They are the better football brand in the state and probably have more fans but they aren’t AAU (getting close, though). On the other hand UVA has the academic power the B10 loves as well as a rivalry with UMD. I’m not sure either really helps bring a new major market (Newport News?, Richmond?) but the state is valuable. Would it be worth taking both to lock down VA and keep the SEC further south? Maybe, if UNC and Duke won’t join. I think the UVA/GT pair is problematic due to isolation of GT.
My guess is that the B10 would prefer UVA and UNC out of all of these but would consider Duke if UNC won’t come or demands them. I think the distance to GT is too much to overcome without a school in NC. I also don’t see a NC school without a VA school. They’d be more likely to come as a package anyway.
Some other fun points under UT/OU:
No one would turn down a Oklahoma-Texas duo. But what happens if Texas wants the Big Ten and Oklahoma wants the SEC? Does the Big Ten take Texas Tech as a cost of doing business? Oklahoma State and its T. Boone Pickens money will probably be able to strong-arm its way into the mix as well. It’s also possible, and perhaps likely, that the Pac-12 will need these schools a heck of a lot more than the Big Ten will, and it will be able to present a desperate deal the Big Ten doesn’t want to match. Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott (if he can keep his job long enough) has a small advantage in that his league has not yet grown to 14 teams. He has extra room to take on inventory.
I don’t see TT or OkSU as viable for the B10. They don’t need UT or OU that badly. The P12 could be desperate enough to make an offer the B10 wouldn’t match, but the P12 can’t offer the money the B10 can. KU is a viable partner and maybe Rice if another TX school is demanded.
The P12 has the advantage of being smaller, but more growth means splitting their pie more ways.
Their conclusions:
After running through the list of candidates, one takeaway stood out: There aren’t many slam dunk potential expansion options out there for the Big Ten. Unless it feels it has to add members to keep up, there’s a strong chance the league may decide it’s better off standing pat for the time being.
Oklahoma and Texas would be major additions, but it’s debatable whether either is a true cultural fit for the Big Ten, and the competition would be fierce with the Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC also likely in the mix. The complications that would come with adding one or both (i.e. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech) also have to be taken into account. It seems more likely Oklahoma and Texas won’t join the Big Ten than those schools will. And once they’re off the board, is anyone else who is available really worth it?
All things being equal, the Big Ten is likely better off trying to expand south than west. That would mean poaching more ACC programs, though, and that will likely be an impossible lift for years to come. There could be enticing options on the table if the Big 12 or Pac-12 implode, but would Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, et al really boost the conference’s drawing power when it comes to media negotiations? Because that’s the only thing that really matters. The Big Ten has to make a tremendous amount more cash to expand. No school is going to sign off on roughly the same pie being divided 16 ways instead of 14.
The answer to that question? Probably not. Which is why if we had to venture a guess, the Big Ten is more likely to stay at 14 members going forward than grow to 16 or more. If a meteor hits the landscape again and things radically change? All bets are off. But for now, the status quo – at least as far as the Big Ten is concerned – seems pretty stable.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/best-in-college-sports-ohio-state-beats-out-alabama-to-take-home-the-2017-18-award/
CBS’s rankings of the best schools in college sports last year.
The National Association of College Directors of Athletics (NACDA) has been ranking athletic programs for years by weighing every sport equally, meaning a football national title is worth the same number of points (100) as a women’s water polo title. We tweaked the formula in 2013, providing additional weight toward sports with more broad fan bases and media interest. We rate every FBS school in three sports — football, men’s basketball and women’s basketball — along with two “wild cards” among the school’s most successful spectator sports: baseball, softball, volleyball, soccer, gymnastics, lacrosse, hockey and wrestling.
The weighted formula puts 2.5 times as much emphasis on football compared to women’s basketball and the “wild cards;” men’s basketball is worth twice as many points. Teams that did not finish in the final AP Top 25 in football but played in a bowl were awarded 62.5 points (25 x 2.5). Three teams — Buffalo, Western Michigan and Texas-San Antonio — received 50 points for being bowl eligible but not playing in a bowl. Teams that made the NIT were given 20 points (10 x 2), while WNIT teams received 10 points. For all titles settled via bracket, point totals were based upon how many teams participated. All champions in the other sports received 100 points for a national title. For example: Florida State received 100 points in softball, while the second-place finisher received 90 points.
That means national titles across the board would yield a perfect 750, just for comparison.
1. OSU – 510.50
2. AL – 492.25
3. OU – 477.50
4. MI – 453.00
5. Duke – 445.50
6. ND
7. Clemson
8. FSU
9. Stanford
10. UGA
B10:
11. MSU
13. PSU
25. WI
27. PU
37. NW
48. NE
50. UMD
52. IA
55. MN
68. IN
69. IL
82. RU
Worst P5s:
119. GT
95. Pitt
91. MS
83. Vandy
82. RU
81. CU
74. Cal
66. ISU
This is OSU’s second title in these rankings having also won in 2014-15.
The result? Despite not winning a national title over the course of the campaign, Ohio State (510.50 points) earned the honor for the second time in the past four years.
The Buckeyes accomplished this feat in large part due to a tremendous football season with the program finishing 12-2 and No. 5 in the final AP Top 25 with a Cotton Bowl victory and Big Ten title. Ohio State men’s basketball (25-7, No. 17 AP) and women’s basketball (28-7, No. 10 AP) each reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The wrestling team finished as a national runner-up, while the men’s volleyball team reached the national semifinal. The men’s and women’s ice hockey teams reached the Frozen Four, and both baseball and softball made the NCAA Tournament.
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https://247sports.com/college/ohio-state/ContentGallery/College-football-contenders-Alabama-Clemson-Ohio-State-and-others-lining-up-for-2018-playoff-119626787/
A first look at the consensus pre-season poll. The final version of this won’t come out until mid-August, obviously.
Each year, we try and take all of the available preseason top 25 polls and mash them together for our Preseason Consensus Poll. The premise is we use each of these polls as a “vote” for our consensus top 25. Teams ranked No. 1 get 25 points and so on down to one point for those ranked 25th.
In the first edition today, we have 23 different polls. We have polls from Phil Steele’s College Football, The Sporting News (Bill Bender), Lindy’s Sports, Athlon Sports, Street & Smith’s, ESPN.com (Mark Schlabach), SI.com (Chris Johnson), CBSSports.com (Dennis Dodd), McIlleceSports.com, Landof10.com (Wayne Staats), BleacherReport.com (David Kenyon), the Detroit Free Press, Vegas Insider.com (Brian Edwards), USA Today College Football (Paul Myerberg), Yahoo.com (Dr. Saturday), SaturdayDownSouth.com (Connor O’Gara), SaturdayBlitz.com (Zach Bigalke), TheSpun.com (Matt Hladik), CollegeFootballNews.com (Pete Fiutak), SBNation.com (Bill Connelly), FloFootballcom (Kolby Paxton), ESPN.com’s Football Power Index and ChatSports.com (Mitchell Renz).
1. Alabama (13-1 in 2017; 15 first-place votes), 565 voting points
2. Clemson (12-2; six first-place votes), 539 points
3. Ohio State (12-2; two first-place votes), 517 points
4. Georgia (13-2), 493 points
5. Wisconsin (13-1), 450 points
6. (tie) Oklahoma (12-2), 446 points
6. (tie) Washington (10-3), 446 points
8. Miami (Fla.) (10-2), 375 points
9. Auburn (10-4), 359 points
10. Penn State (11-2), 356 points
11. Michigan State (10-3), 314 points
12. Michigan (8-5), 299 points
13. Stanford (9-5), 298 points
14. Notre Dame (10-3), 261 points
15. USC (11-3), 214 points
16. Virginia Tech (9-4), 178 points
17. Florida State (7-6), 157 points
18. Mississippi State (9-4), 155 points
19. TCU (11-3), 144 points
20. West Virginia (7-6), 131 points
21. LSU (9-4), 106 points
22. Boise State (11-3), 103 points
23. Central Florida (13-0), 98 points
24. Texas (7-6), 91 points
25. Oklahoma State (10-3), 75 points
Other B10:
33t. Northwestern – 9
39t. Nebraska – 4
47t. Iowa – 1
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Saw this on another board. Should be required reading for anyone who doesn’t believe the think like a president crowd.
https://247sports.com/college/utah/Article/The-Right-Fit-An-Oral-History-of-How-Utah-Joined-the-Pac-12-119713965/
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That is a good piece. There were a couple of long pieces written about Maryland’s move to the B10 that hit on the same points. You have to think someone will write a book about this era of expansion and include all of these stories.
One small quote that shows why BYU will struggle to ever make a P5 conference:
Hill: It was not a requirement to upgrade our facilities. … It was not required. Nothing was required except playing on Sunday and the money we gave up.
I fully support BYU standing by their religious beliefs and refusing to play on Sundays, but this just confirms that P5 conferences have zero tolerance for a newbie causing them a logistics problem like that.
The same site had a follow-up piece with some extra quotes.
Chris Hill on some of the commitments Utah made to enter the conference:
“… But it moved at warp speed. It was one of those things where you just didn’t want to have it out there where people would go, “Oh you can’t go. How can you leave the Mountain West? How can you leave BYU?” All of that stuff might have caused an upheaval where we wouldn’t have been attractive. Or “How are you going to play on Sunday?” All of that stuff. They asked us will you play on Sunday, and the answer was yes., if that’s a requirement. We didn’t like to play on Sunday, but at the end of the day, we were going to be in the Mountain West not playing on Sunday or be in the Pac-12 and play occasionally on Sundays. And people don’t know we were already doing that in some of our other sports anyways. It was a whirlwind in your head and how things move.”
Thing how different things might be now if Utah had refused to play on Sundays. Would the P12 not have expanded or would they have found a different partner for CU?
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Speaking of What If’s. What would the football landscape look like had Paterno’s dream of an Eastern All Sports Conference materialized
When expansion started it would be the Big East raiding the ACC instead of the other way around.
So a 16 team Big East could conceivably look like this:
PSU
Pitt
BC
Syracuse
Rutgers
Temple
West Virginia
Maryland
VT
Virginia
NC
NC State
Duke
Miami
FSU
Notre Dame (If they don’t join then Clemson)
The first 8 being the original members.
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Okay, let’s set the scene. We’ll say the 8-team ECC formed in 1985.
Pre-1985:
ACC – GT, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF, UVA, UMD
B8 – CU, ISU, KU, KSU, MO, NE, OU, OkSU
B10 – IL, IN, IA, MI, MSU, MN, NW, OSU, PU, WI
P10 – UW, WSU, UO, OrSU, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, UA, ASU
SEC – AL, AU, UF, UGA, UK, LSU, MS, MsSU, TN, VU
SWC – AR, Baylor, UH, Rice, SMU, UT, TT, TAMU, TCU
Ind. – PSU, Pitt, BC, SU, RU, Temple, WV, ND, SC, FSU, Miami, UC, UL, VT, Army, Navy, …
1985:
ECC – PSU, Pitt, BC, SU, RU, Temple, WV, UMD
ACC – GT, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF, UVA, ???
Ind. – ND, SC, FSU, Miami, UC, UL, VT, Army, Navy, …
The one conference member they would’ve stolen in JoePa’s plan was UMD, dropping the ACC to 7 teams. Presumably the ACC would’ve looked to fill that hole. The big question is which independents might be willing to join a conference. By 1993, almost all the major independents had joined a conference in the real timeline with the formation of the BE (8 teams) plus SC, FSU and PSU all finding homes over 3 years. The B10 grabbing PSU started that cascade. Would the formation of the ECC have made it happen even sooner? I’m guessing so.
Would SC have rejoined the ACC? Would FSU and/or Miami have joined? What about another Metro conference school like UL or VT (GT and FSU both came from the Metro to the ACC)? This is a hard call to me and all the other dominoes depend on it. I’ll say FSU became #8.
1986:
ACC – GT, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF, UVA, FSU
Ind. – ND, SC, Miami, UC, UL, VT, Army, Navy, …
I believe this would’ve lead to more changes as independents became nervous and the B10 looked to grow.
1993:
ECC – PSU, Pitt, BC, SU, RU, Temple, WV, UMD, VT, Miami
ACC – GT, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF, UVA, FSU
B8 – CU, ISU, KU, KSU, MO, NE, OU, OkSU, TT, TAMU
B10 – IL, IN, IA, MI, MSU, MN, NW, OSU, PU, WI, UT
P10 – UW, WSU, UO, OrSU, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, UA, ASU
SEC – AL, AU, UF, UGA, UK, LSU, MS, MsSU, TN, VU, AR, SC
Ind. – ND, …
Now things get interesting. The SEC expands to 12 as usual but the SWC falls apart too since the B10 is looking to grow at the same time as the B12 is trying to form. Remember, UT talked with the B10 about joining in the early 90s but was told no because the B10 had a moratorium on expansion for 5 years after adding PSU. I’ll assume ND stays independent.
This leaves the SEC as the only conference with a CCG and eventually the same factors as drove realignment for real hit again.
2010:
ACC – GT, Clemson, UNC, NCSU, Duke, WF, UVA, FSU, PSU, UMD, VT, Miami
B12 – ISU, KSU, OkSU, TT, UC, UL, Pitt, BC, SU, RU, Temple, WV
B10 – IL, IN, IA, MI, MSU, MN, NW, OSU, PU, WI, UT, OU, NE, KU
P10 – UW, WSU, UO, OrSU, Cal, Stanford, USC, UCLA, UA, ASU, CU, Utah
SEC – AL, AU, UF, UGA, UK, LSU, MS, MsSU, TN, VU, AR, SC, TAMU, MO
Ind. – ND, …
The ECC dies just like the Big East did because it lacks enough CFB power. Instead its top members make a stronger ACC. Since the B10 got UT instead of PSU, they continue to grow west as the B12 dies. UT had been asking for rivals and the B10 is happy to add 3 kings (2 FB, 1 MBB). The SEC gets its same pair because TAMU wants away from UT while OU doesn’t, especially with NE in the mix as well.
Obviously this is only one of many possible paths, but I think the ECC was doomed as a concept because there just weren’t many good football programs in the northeast after the 70s.
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My question with your 2010 scenario is splitting PSU and Pitt. The reason they split was Paterino was upset and rightly so with Pitt for not being on board with the formation of the ECC which led to PSU joining the Big 10. Prior to that PSU-Pitt had a good relationship. Paternio was very accommodating to Pitt agreeing to play at Pitt for 3 of the 4 Tony Dorsett years. Being a WPA guy I’m certain that PSU and Pitt would have stayed together whether it be the ACC or the Big 12. Also I’m sure PSU, Pitt, WV and SU would have preferred to stay together and if your talking 16 team conference they would have.
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Doug,
“My question with your 2010 scenario is splitting PSU and Pitt.”
I did that for one reason – money. Adding to the footprint for conference networks was the driving force at that time. PSU is the higher-value target of the two and a second school in the state of PA adds nothing financially. PSU and Pitt were clearly willing to be separated in our timeline so I think it would’ve happened in this scenario, too. In my scenario the ACC was the stronger of the two conferences so ECC members didn’t have a ton of leverage.
“The reason they split was Paterino was upset and rightly so with Pitt for not being on board with the formation of the ECC which led to PSU joining the Big 10. Prior to that PSU-Pitt had a good relationship. Paternio was very accommodating to Pitt agreeing to play at Pitt for 3 of the 4 Tony Dorsett years.”
Get 10 PSU or Pitt fansa together and you’ll get 12 different stories about what happened and why. The groups don’t agree about who has the right to be upset or much of anything else. I’ll let Pitt and PSU fans argue that.
“Being a WPA guy I’m certain that PSU and Pitt would have stayed together whether it be the ACC or the Big 12.”
If it was their choice, perhaps so. But if only one of them got offered a spot in a better league, would they have refused it to stay with their partner? Nobody else has done that and you never heard any talk of PSU trying to get Pitt into the B10 in the recent expansion.
“Also I’m sure PSU, Pitt, WV and SU would have preferred to stay together and if your talking 16 team conference they would have.”
Again, that assumes the option was on the table. In my scenario the ACC stopped at 12 because they were strong enough. I’m not convinced any of the B12 East members offered enough value that the ACC would have invited them. I don’t think they would’ve chased markets quite as much as they actually did if they had the football power they do in my scenario.
Might another round of realignment get the ACC to 14 as well? Sure. But it’s not clear to me that the value would be there for them without ND.
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There was a bit of talk at Maryland in the ’70s and ’80s about moving to an eastern all-sports conference were one ever founded. The Terps had regularly played PSU, SU and WVU in football for years and occasionally had series with Pitt and BC. At the time, the ACC had a lousy football brand, but compensated for it in men’s basketball. Would SU have filled in for UNC, NCSU and Duke in that department? Perhaps, but I’m skeptical.
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vp81955,
“There was a bit of talk at Maryland in the ’70s and ’80s about moving to an eastern all-sports conference were one ever founded.”
I could see that. UMD was always on the edge of the footprint with lots of interaction with the northern schools. Still, the money wasn’t big enough back then to drive UMD to leave their old rivals so I doubt they would’ve done it. Every school in the ACC outside of NC (and UVA) complains because of how Tobacco Road has dominated the conference politically. I think it took the more recent change in culture in the MD and DC area (much less southern than before) combined with the financial problems to make the move possible. But that’s coming from a pure outsider.
“At the time, the ACC had a lousy football brand, but compensated for it in men’s basketball. Would SU have filled in for UNC, NCSU and Duke in that department? Perhaps, but I’m skeptical.”
Me, too. You can’t easily replace that sort of history of success and the rivalries.
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Just some context for UMD in 1985.
FB games against other teams through 1984 (all teams with 20+ games are included):
ACC members:
UVA – 49
UNC – 47
NCSU – 40
WF – 33
Clemson – 33
Duke – 28
GT – 0 (joined ACC in football in 1983 – ACC played 5 conference games with 8 members)
Total = 230 (32.9 per school on average)
ECC members:
SU – 29
PSU – 28
WV – 22
RU – 7
Pitt – 2
BC – 0
Temple – 0
Total = 88 (12.6 per school on average)
Others:
SC – 28 (former ACC member)
VT – 24
VMI – 23
Washington & Lee – 20
MBB games against other teams from 1949-1985 (all teams with 20+ games are included):
ACC members:
UVA – 80
Duke – 79
UNC – 77
Clemson – 77
NCSU – 75
WF – 70
GT – 16 (joined ACC in hoops in 1979)
Total = 474 (67.7 per school on average)
ECC members:
WV – 21
PSU – 14
SU – 5
Pitt – 4
BC – 3
RU – 2
Temple – 2
Total = 51 (7.3 per school on average)
Others:
SC – 44 (former ACC member)
Georgetown – 44
GW – 39
Navy – 33
Especially when you value hoops, it’s not even close. UMD had no hoops history with any of the ECC members and football history with just 3 of them. It’s really hard to see the alumni or school supporting such a move. Joining the B10 (a similar move to a league with few ties) required massive financial incentives (huge debt, cutting teams, gigantic financial disparity between the B10 and ACC, getting up front money to make the switch). And this ignores the entire academic side of the issue. Leaving UVA, UNC, Duke, etc to join WV and company? That would be a tough sell to the faculty and president.
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“Get 10 PSU or Pitt fans together and you’ll get 12 different stories about what happened and why. The groups don’t agree about who has the right to be upset or much of anything else. I’ll let Pitt and PSU fans argue that.”
Pitt fans can come up with all the revisionist history they want but it was Pitt who decided not to join. At the time they were riding high in football and didn’t want to share revenue with anyone. Here’s the issue revisited by the Pittsburgh PG. http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/2007/11/04/The-Big-East-question-revisited-25-years-later/stories/200711040221
PSU approached the Big 10 about joining. People forget PSU was not welcomed into the Big 10 when the announcement was made. Everyone was blinsided. Read about it here. https://www.blackshoediaries.com/2010/6/22/1523717/penn-state-history-joining-the-big.
Their poor treatment had a number of PA folks saying PSU should say screw the Big 10, PSU should apply to the ACC. Since PSU only was accepted by one vote. They could easily have been rejected. Then their next option would have been to approach the ACC. Boy that would have changed things.
Since it was handled so badly, I’m certain that when Delany announced that the Big 10 was looking to expand he stated they would be very open about it.
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Doug,
“Pitt fans can come up with all the revisionist history they want”
I believe they’d accuse PSU fans of the exact same thing.
“but it was Pitt who decided not to join.”
Nobody decided to join. The other 7 could have formed the ECC without Pitt and grabbed someone else for #8. I think part of the problem is that all the schools were used to being independents and they struggled with the cooperation and trust a good conference requires. more on that below.
“At the time they were riding high in football and didn’t want to share revenue with anyone.”
I’ve heard PSU accused of a similar thing. See below.
Basically, Pitt chose to join a basketball conference and stay independent in football. If they’d known the Supreme Court was about to stop the NCAA from controlling TV rights and foresaw the huge growth in football money they might have done things differently. But back then hoops was more on par with football for money and independents were common and successful. The move worked well for Pitt in all but football, and the team might have fallen off after Sherrill left anyway.
And remember this all happened only because the Big East (before Pitt joined) unofficially rejected PSU as a hoops member first. That drove PSU to suggest the ECC.
https://csnbbs.com/thread-810604-page-4.html
And for a different perspective, read post #62 on this. I assume he’s a Pitt fan.
This thread is full of all kinds of incorrect assumptions and revisionist history. The situation was a lot more complex than many of you seem to realize. The alliances described in the initial post are all incorrect. That’s not what happened at all.
…
Of course, how you view the situation is largely dependent on the school for which you cheer. However, I can tell you that the part that never gets enough discussion is how Penn State resigned from the Eastern 8 at the 1978 league meetings. That was a big deal and people always just gloss right over it.
Basically, to make a long story short, Joe Paterno, who at the time was Penn State’s official athletic director rather than just their de facto athletic director, as he would be for the rest of his life; was frustrated with certain elements of the league and was throwing his weight around regarding some rules changes. He essentially told the assembled group that if they did not make certain rules changes – which I believe had to do with eligibility – Penn State was leaving the league and going independent in all sports – just like Notre Dame at the time.
Well, they had a vote and the vote went against Penn State’s wishes. True to his word, Paterno immediately withdrew Penn State from the conference. However, they did it by slipping the resignation announcement press release under the doors of the assembled media and league membership as they were sleeping. It was very much like the Mayflower moving truck incident regarding the Baltimore Colts…and it pissed off a LOT of people and eroded a ton of trust.
So you can imagine when three or four years later that same GOOF is talking about forming an all sports league how little appetite the rest of the schools had to partner with this maniac who had already proven that he was not going to be shy about throwing his weight around or nuking the whole thing if things didn’t go his way.
I am telling you from a Pitt perspective that was a huge issue. They did not trust Paterno at all…at all!
Then, the terms started to leak out and it had nothing to do with egos. It was about business and what Paterno was proposing would’ve been great business for Penn State but terrible business for everyone else.
Penn State did not want to share any football money but they wanted to divide basketball money equally. Well, they played in tiny Rec Hall, which seats about 4,000 people. You can imagine the appetite Syracuse – which played in a brand-new dome that seats 30,000 people – had for such a partnership.
It would’ve been like the Texas situation on steroids and it would not have been sustainable. It would’ve choked the life out of every other team in the East.
I’m not saying he’s 100% factually correct, but it helps to see what fans from both sides say since the truth is probably in the middle somewhere.
“PSU approached the Big 10 about joining.”
They did, but it helped that Delany was a new commissioner and had come in looking to expand essentially from the start. He helped push the presidents to get past their traditionalist leanings.
“People forget PSU was not welcomed into the Big 10 when the announcement was made. Everyone was blinsided.”
Some do, especially those outside the footprint. Many are also too young to remember it (it’s been almost 30 years). But those of us here remember quite well. The presidents welcomed PSU, but they kept the process secret from everyone including the ADs and coaches. Unfortunately the B10 had some very big personalities in those positions (Bo Schembechler, Bobby Knight) who were angry with their presidents and felt they should’ve been asked for input before a vote. They become vocal leaders against the addition mostly because they were upset with the process but it was taken out on PSU in the media via cutting remarks.
When fans saw/heard their coaches and ADs upset about it, many supported them over the presidents on general principle. But there were other factors that influenced the reaction of fans. And don’t forget that a lot of people didn’t actually care much one way or the other. Don’t assume that Bo and Bobby reflected the common opinions.
1. JoePa was not the most beloved coach outside of PA. A lot of people disliked the way he claimed the moral high ground and said his program was above everyone else’s. The pedestal PSU fans put him on also annoyed people.
2. Dislike of easterners in general was pretty common in the midwest (especially outside of cities) at that time due to the frequent jokes about the midwest and treating it as flyover country. Expanding outside of the midwest ruffled some feathers.
3. PSU fans caused some backlash with their attitudes. Some were quite cocky about how PSU would dominate the B10 and that angered people. Other PSU fans were upset at losing their independence and blamed the B10 or mocked it.
4. People didn’t understand the role of money in college sports at that time like they do now. The reasons for expanding were not explained well to all the B10 alumni and fans and they reacted poorly to change for no apparent reason.
“Their poor treatment had a number of PA folks saying PSU should say screw the Big 10, PSU should apply to the ACC. Since PSU only was accepted by one vote. They could easily have been rejected.”
That’s why they do these things in secret but with more people informed. But beyond the poor process, I always thought part of the problem was PSU having been an independent for so long. I’ve seen PSU fans get angry over things that are SOP for conference members but they never had to deal with before joining so they claim the B10 is picking on them. PSU not joining in football for 3 years didn’t help matters (from both sides), nor did PSU demanding 10 years of games against MI (at the expense of the other B10 schools) and having OSU as a locked game.
“Then their next option would have been to approach the ACC. Boy that would have changed things.”
Certainly.
“Since it was handled so badly, I’m certain that when Delany announced that the Big 10 was looking to expand he stated they would be very open about it.”
They improved the process a lot with NE but it was too open in the run up stages. The UMD/RU addition was the most well executed of the 3 most recent expansions.
I think the B10 getting rid of people like Bo and Bobby helped a lot, frankly. They had a sense of entitlement that was impossible to deal with.
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbelzer/2013/10/29/what-the-big-ten-conference-teaches-us-about-making-critical-decisions/#4d3dfc542f19
I forgot. Here’s a good Forbes piece about recent B10 expansions from a business perspective, including some quotes from Delany.
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Ah yes, the old note under the door. Hahahahahahaha, I still laugh my ass off at that so dumb, stupid take your pick.
Look Joe was NO saint. He could be very, very, very vindictive and petty.
I couple of the Pitt fan’s comments seem to conflict with the Post Gazette. I defer to the PG over some anonymous poster. Not to say he doesn’t make some good points. But I’m always a little suspicious when someone says, “I happen to know somebody… I know for a fact…” unless they cite sources.
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I’m certainly not saying his story is accurate. But it’s perfect for illustrating my point that Pitt and PSU fans view things very differently. I use that to say that I question statements like:
“Paterino was upset and rightly so”
Rightly so? In the minds of PSU fans, sure, but I don’t know that even neutral fans would agree.
“Prior to that PSU-Pitt had a good relationship.”
Did they? That’s not how Pitt fans seem to view it. And both sides seem to view it as a rivalry full of disrespect for the other school.
“Paterno was very accommodating to Pitt”
Again, only one side feels that way.
I’m sure you believe what you wrote and I’m also sure a Pitt fan would disagree on every point.
All that adds up to me being a lot less sure than you that Pitt would bend over backwards to stay with PSU in the ECC scenario. Pitt would do it exactly as long as they felt it was best for Pitt.
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Brian,
I use that to say that I question statements like: “Paterino was upset and rightly so”
That was an opinion nothing more, not a statement of fact. I wouldn’t have any clue what the majority of neutral people say or don’t say.
Look it’s a ‘burgh thing. There’s PSU facts, Pitt facts and the real facts. I’ve listened to this shit for close to 70 years.
PSU fans are arrogant & look down on Pitt fans. Pitt fans are angry & frustrated. PSU is the big dog in PA and they are powerless to change it.
Just to let you know Family breakdown.
PSU Alum Pitt Alum
Youngest son Wife
Father-In-Law Oldest son
Daughter-In-Law Brother-In-Law
Brother-in-law Sister-In-Law
Dear old Dad well I bleed Scarlet & Grey. LMAO So I’m stuck in the middle and tired of being the negotiator. Usually end it by saying we kick both your asses. We’ve had some memorable Pitt-PSU games though.
Geez Brian If I agree to play you 3 out of 4 years at your home and you say I’m not accommodating, then there’s nothing I could ever do to make you happy. 🙂
Love the discussion. Peace out my brother.
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Doug,
“Geez Brian If I agree to play you 3 out of 4 years at your home and you say I’m not accommodating, then there’s nothing I could ever do to make you happy.”
When was this offer? And was that just a way to switch the home games from even years to odds and vice versa (say 1980, 1981, 1983, … ), perhaps to balance when Pitt played WV? That’s basically just home and homes.
The long standing offer from PSU after joining the B10 (and maybe earlier) was a 2 for 1 series with Pitt. How accommodating is that?
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Brian,
I did some research, no wonder Pitt hated Paterno when he became coach he insisted that Pitt play at State College. In their 31 meetings 16 were at Pitt and 15 were at Penn State.
Prior to that from 1903 to 1966 (Paterno’s first year) every single game was at Pitt except 4 games. 1931,1939,1942 & 1955. I damn near fell off my chair. Then I had to ask, “What the hell was Coach Rip Engle thinking?”
Once Penn State decided not to play Pitt then vindictiveness took over. The 2 to 1 offer was just sticking a thumb in Pitt’s eye. He knew Pitt would never accept it. But hey 2 to 1 is better than 59 to 4 right? LMAO
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http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-swim/spec-rel/070918aaa.html
A new B10/ACC challenge will start this year, in swimming and diving. All-star teams from each conference will face off in a dual meet format in November.
In a similar format to the successful 2016 College Challenge (versus USA Swimming), a running score will be kept throughout the dual meet competition combining the points earned by both women and men. Team scoring will be used to determine a winner of the All-Star meet. Meet scoring will mirror NCAA dual meet parameters.
Swimming students will be determined using a similar selection process to that of the College Challenge, where at least two males and two females from each institution will be designated to compete, but no more than five males and five females from each school will participate. Additionally, for diving students, there will be no more than two males and two females from each school. Numbers may vary based on men’s and women’s swimming program membership, as well as selection to the All-Star team based on personal event times and diving results.
Each athlete may be entered in up to six events during the meet, including individual events and relays.
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Rutgers football problems in two names. Saquon Barkley. From Eastern PA. Rutgers commit who flipped to Penn State. Jon Taylor, listed today by USA today as the projected number two running back in the country – as a sophomore. From South Jersey. Rutgers commit who flipped to Wisconsin. I don’t blame either of the players, but there it is in a nutshell.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/07/11/nfl-college-football-debate-strategy-rules
In response to a colleague’s piece explaining why the NFL is better than CFB, Andy Staples rebuts him point by point. Here’s a bit of his opening:
As I read my MMQB colleague Andy Benoit’s treatise on why the NFL “annihilates” college football from a “strategic entertainment standpoint,” one thought kept racing through my head.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ…
When I awoke and wiped the trickle of drool from the corner of my mouth, I thought a little more about Benoit’s carefully reasoned analysis of why the NFL’s narrower hash marks make for a more precise dhsiqhohwiodfhiuewoihaoucn;duibcbadubxibu….
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ…
When I awoke again, it occurred to me that I don’t want strategic entertainment. I want entertaining entertainment. That’s what college football provides.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/07/11/bcs-computer-rankings-polls-formula-sagarin-billingsley
SI’s story on the history of the computer polls the BCS used and their creators. They talk about the decision to drop margin of victory and the decision to reduce the impact of the computer polls among other things.
They clearly disagree about MOV:
Sagarin: “I wasn’t going to bastardize my ratings, so I just invented another column [excluding margin of victory] for the BCS.
“There’s no debate with [the BCS]. They would tell you, either you do this, or your gone. [Matthews and Rothman’s] systems had a lot in [them] that didn’t let runaway scores totally dominate. I respected them for quitting.”
Billingsley: “I still run [a version of my formula] with margin of victory, and it’s slightly more accurate in terms of future predictions of games, to the tune of 2 to 3%—which doesn’t sound like a lot, but really when you get down to looking at the games, 2% of difference is quite a bit. It’s a question of do you want a national championship that’s the best team or the most deserving team?”
Anderson: “Margin of victory is not the object of the game, and if it’s going to be incorporated in a ranking—and we didn’t really think it should be—it should be in the polls. They can tell the difference between a 28–7 game where a team gets a couple of late scores and makes it look close and the opposite.”
…
Anderson: “It’s always been a crazy thing to me; college football is the only sport where anybody cares about margin of victory. What was Golden State’s margin of victory over Houston in the Western Conference Finals? It was just phenomenal. They were probably 70 points ahead of the Rockets before Game 7, but if the Rockets won Game 7, that would have been it. The Mazeroski World Series in 1960, the Yankees [scored almost twice as many runs as] the Pirates.”
Other quotes:
Sagarin: “There’s no ratings that fit all the games. People get upset, because they pick out what’s important to them. They say, backfit it with these games. And you even try to say, but what about these games? They don’t even matter.”
Anderson: “That new formula was in effect the last 10 years of the BCS, 10 out of the 16 years. And in those last 10 years, there was never really any controversy about who was in the [title] game. That’s remarkable, to go an entire decade and never have a year where there wasn’t a consensus pick. Even in years like 2004, when Auburn was the only major undefeated team to ever be left out, everybody agreed with that: the polls, every computer, everybody.”
…
Sagarin: “What they were trying to find out was how much weight could they give to the computers. What was the maximum weight they could give to the computers whereby we really wouldn’t effect the results? We were there to look like guys in white lab coats, to give an intellectual aura. You could sense that we weren’t that popular.”
…
Colley: “When the BCS was running, the people were closer to the computers. Since the computers have gone, the people have sort of diverged again from the computers. I will say that one thing that started me into this game initially was I thought people were too easily enamored with name teams.”
…
Sagarin: “Here’s the nirvana I’ve reached: I don’t care. It has no effect on my life if Oklahoma gets picked over Auburn or if out of the blue they decided that undefeated Arizona State gets in. There was a point in my life when I actually cared. I don’t care.”
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https://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs/can-the-huskers-hold-off-alabama-for-fourth-place-on/article_685da6cd-cd8d-5c27-8a0e-8e786b70d993.html
A reminder that we will see a lot of milestones reached and shuffling among the top all-time wins leaders this year and next.
All-time wins by I-A programs:
1. Michigan, 943
2. Ohio State, 898
3. Texas, 897
4. Nebraska, 893
5. Alabama, 891
6. Notre Dame, 885
7. Oklahoma, 884
8. Penn State, 878
9. USC, 834
10. Tennessee, 833
OSU, UT, NE and AL should all get to 900 wins this season with ND and OU doing it in 2019 and PSU in 2019 or 2020. In addition, expect shuffling of the ranks as AL will soon pass NE and probably UT. OSU might hold them off for a few years. Meanwhile OU is likely to pass ND. The #1, 9 and 10 spots are pretty safe MI has a huge lead, since #11 UGA is at 808 and USC is better than TN at the moment.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24079704/louisville-evaluating-naming-rights-papa-john-cardinal-stadium
The Papa John’s “scandal” continues to grow. After saying something he definitely shouldn’t have a few months ago, the Papa John’s founder has now stepped down as chairman of the company (he stepped down as CEO last year after he made comments about the NFL) and stepped down from the UL Board of Trustees. Now UL is re-evaluating their naming rights deal for the football stadium.
University of Louisville president Neeli Bendapudi said Thursday that the school is evaluating the naming rights to Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium as fallout continues over John Schnatter’s use of the N-word during an internal conference call.
Schnatter, the pizza chain founder, resigned from the school’s board of trustees and as Papa John’s chairman on Wednesday after the story came to light.
…
The naming rights deal for the football stadium is unique, because the school’s deal is with Schnatter, not the Papa John’s brand. The deal provides that if he leaves the company, Schnatter can rename the building. His current deal with the university runs through 2040.
On Thursday, some current Louisville football players tweeted that they wanted the Papa John’s name off their home stadium.
…
Already, the mayor of his hometown of Jefferson, Indiana, had Schnatter’s name removed from the town’s basketball gym and ordered his likeness taken down from the city’s Wall of Fame.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/24088014/university-louisville-drops-papa-john-name-stadium
UL will officially rename their stadium “Cardinal Stadium.”
Louisville president Neeli Bendapudi announced Friday the school will strip the Papa John’s name from its football stadium, renaming it Cardinal Stadium.
John Schnatter, the pizza chain founder, admitted earlier this week that he used the N-word during an internal conference call. Since then, the fallout has been swift: Schnatter resigned from the school’s board of trustees and as Papa John’s chairman. Not only will the Papa John’s name come off the football stadium, Bendapudi also said the school would take Schatter’s name off the Center for Free Enterprise inside the business school. The changes are effective immediately.
Bendapudi said at a news conference in Louisville that she had informed Papa John’s and Schnatter of her decision. She said Schnatter was contrite, apologetic and supported the move because he didn’t want to be a distraction.
“By taking this action, we renew our community’s commitment to speaking up when it matters, doing what is right, and coming together as one team — our Cardinal family — to heal and move forward,” she said.
The naming rights deal for the football stadium is unique because the school’s deal is with Schnatter, not the Papa John’s brand. The deal provides that if he leaves the company, Schnatter can rename the building. His current deal with the university runs through 2040.
Bendapudi said the university hasn’t yet worked out the financial details for removing the name, but she also added the school wasn’t looking for a new naming rights deal at this time.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24087375/college-football-playoff-extends-deals-cotton-bowl-fiesta-bowl-peach-bowl-2026
In shocking news, the CFP will keep the same 6 bowls for another 6 years. The just renewed their deals with the Cotton, Fiesta and Peach bowls.
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https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2018/07/rutgers_players_under_investigation.html
Up to 8 RU football players are under investigation for credit card fraud. RU kicked 2 players off the team earlier this week for violating team rules but they might or might not be related to this.
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https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/07/13/michigan-state-bill-beekman-athletic-director/784770002/
MSU is removing the interim tag from their AD Bill Beekman. He has no experience as an AD and John Engler promised no internal candidates would be considered, so the selection seems questionable on multiple fronts.
Beekman has been vice president and secretary of the MSU Board of Trustees since 2008 and previously served as executive director of the MSU Alumni Association. According to his university bio and LinkedIn pages, the 1989 MSU graduate was hired by his alma mater in 1995 as an administrator with the MSU HealthTeam and served as assistant dean for finance and planning in the College of Human Medicine from 1998-2004. He also has served as a senior consultant to the provost and the vice president for finance and operations.
He briefly served as acting president after Lou Anna Simon resigned in the fallout from the Larry Nassar scandal and before the board appointed Engler as the interim president.
Engler named Beekman as the interim AD a week after taking office. Beekman has no experience in athletic management listed on his LinkedIn page or MSU bio.
“Just as the Board of Trustees had confidence in Bill to keep things moving as acting president, I have confidence that he will provide very capable leadership of the athletic department during this time of transition,” Engler said in a February release.
At the time, Engler said a national search will begin shortly for a permanent athletic director and that no internal candidates from MSU will be considered.
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Isn’t it likely that Beekman was given the position with the expectation that he will be good at damage control coming from the gymnastics fiasco? That may be far be the biggest task facing the new MSU AD.
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That may have been a consideration, but actually running the department has to be the first concern. A complete lack of AD experience can be hard to overcome (see Dave Brandon). I’d think the biggest task is installing new policies that have been suggested from reviews and changing the culture. I think the damage control is on Engler’s plate.
If I was an MSU alumnus, my concern would be that Engler wanted someone he knows and can control rather than the best person for the job. It certainly does nothing to help MSU’s image that rather than cleaning house and looking nationally for the best person, they hired an MSU insider with no experience in athletics. This is the same sort of hire one would make if one wanted to cover things up, not that I’m claiming that was Engler’s motivation. He may truly believe this was the right hire for the right reasons. Going back on his previous statement doesn’t help the appearance, though.
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https://footballbowlassociation.com/news/2018/1/29/MEDIA_DAYS.aspx?path=general
The CFB pre-season really starts Monday with B12 and SEC media days. Here’s the schedule for all the various conferences:
B12 7/16-7/17
SEC 7/16-7/19
ACC 7/18-7/19
B10 7/23-24
P12 7/25
The norm is 2 days but the SEC has 4 days while the P12 has just 1 day.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/baylor-was-worried-about-its-big-12-membership-as-sexual-assault-scandal-unfolded/
Baylor was worried about losing their B12 membership during their scandal. I don’t think it’s a concern any longer unless some more skeletons are found in their closet.
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It is hard to imagine what a team already in a P5 conference could do to get kicked out. If UNC is not even punished for years of systematic cheating or Baylor for its behavior, what else is there?
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There are 2 obvious answers:
1. The Temple example – be so terrible for so long without any attempt to compete. That used to be acceptable, and perhaps an elite academic school could get away with it still (think NW in the 70s-80s), but the money is really important these days. The high earners aren’t going to accept complete deadweight for decades, especially if their conference is struggling to compete financially.
2. The SMU example – get the death penalty in a revenue sport, especially football. It’s hard to satisfy TV contracts for inventory if you’re down a team. And if the penalty was due to illegal activity like sexual assault, not just breaking NCAA rules, that’s even worse.
Other options:
3. Lose accreditation. If you have an academic scandal so bad that probation isn’t sufficient, you’re done. This is almost impossible for a P5 school, though.
4. Have such a huge scandal and coverup that the other schools can’t afford to stay affiliated with you. Think Baylor/Sandusky/Nassar/Strauss but with multiple smoking guns showing active knowledge/coverup/complicity from the administration as a policy, not just as individuals. Imagine if Sandusky was an active coach and there was clear proof JoePa and all his superiors knew and actively protected Sandusky. If there was clear proof of many of the allegations at Baylor, I could see the B12 cutting them loose. They weren’t a major financial boon to the conference anyway. UT would be given more leeway.
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1. While Temple had those problems, its stadium only seated 30,000 and there was no realistic hope for an upgrade. It went well beyond performance issues. Temple did not have the fan base to support even the 30,000 seat field and there was no institutional support for football.
2. I am not sure that any school will get the death penalty again, absent almost unimaginable circumstances.
3. Agree.
4. Even with your examples, if the school did not get the death penalty, the league would punish the school financially for few years – no bowls, no NCAA, no bowl or NCAA money, etc. – and then it would be over. Again, money rules and teams (and markets) will not be dumped. If the Baylor mess was not enough, what would be?
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If there were a big TV contract with the need for the Phillie market ( and Temple delivered it), even the stadium and support issues might have been overlooked. That was not an issue when Temple got dumped.
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Jersey Bernie,
“1. While Temple had those problems, its stadium only seated 30,000 and there was no realistic hope for an upgrade. It went well beyond performance issues. Temple did not have the fan base to support even the 30,000 seat field and there was no institutional support for football.”
Yes, and I’m not claiming it’s likely for any P5 school. But if a P5 conference is struggling to keep up (P12, ACC, B12 a few years ago) and they had a 70s NW that was weak academically and didn’t bring a market, I think they’d consider it as part of a realignment to regain stability. A school like Baylor or WF could fit the bill if they got really, really bad.
“2. I am not sure that any school will get the death penalty again, absent almost unimaginable circumstances.”
I doubt it ever happens again either, but I think that would be a cause to evict them.
“4. Even with your examples, if the school did not get the death penalty, the league would punish the school financially for few years – no bowls, no NCAA, no bowl or NCAA money, etc. – and then it would be over. Again, money rules and teams (and markets) will not be dumped. If the Baylor mess was not enough, what would be?”
I disagree. A “typical” scandal would be handled that way as we’ve seen. But if there was a clear paper trail (or audio/video, etc) from the top (BOT/president) down showing active participation by the whole department (not just individuals) in putting students at serious risk for years and covering it all up, I think a weak link member could be in serious trouble. You can survive a handful of bad apples, but an active policy that tens of people are implementing is another level of evil.
The key point is that all of these scenarios are highly unlikely. The only plausible method of dropping a P5 school anymore is for the conference to dissolve like the PCC and SWC. Then the other members can form a new conference (PCC -> AAWU is how Idaho was dropped) or go elsewhere (SWC split and several were left behind).
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I wonder if the death penalty (or lack of it) is determinative in the long run in Baylor’s case. SWC didn’t disband immediately upon upon it being leveled. UT may choose (again) to relocate and decrease association with them at a more feasible time. Nobody gets booted, but changing membership or dissolution causes a similar result without actually having to act as executioner (while providing reasonable cover of improving situation).
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ccrider55,
Baylor is certainly on shaky ground if the B12 dissolves, but a lot of that is based on their religious affiliation and related policies. Several P5 conferences want no part of that. Without the political power of TX legislators, BU wouldn’t even have been in the B12 so it’s not like a true demotion. They should have been in the WAC/CUSA with the other smaller TX schools from the SWC.
If the B12 dissolves, or loses all of its power members, I think the B12 scraps reform as the West division (or at least part of it) of a conference with the best of the AAC. That seems like the most viable option. I don’t think those schools could afford to ignore BU in their chase for TV money.
West = BU, TCU, TT, OkSU, KSU, ISU
East = WV, UC, UConn, UCF, USF, Navy/Other
Potentially UH is in the mix, too.
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I’m not an attorney but is there even a mechanism to kick someone out of a conference for a scandal? There would be major financial considerations TV revenue etc. Using PSU as an example. They are a fully paid up partner in the BTN. They would have to be bought out, how would you determine the value? But let’s say they get tossed. Now with the precedent set do you toss MSU. Then what about the next scandal? You end up hurting your conference value wise. Since these are criminal matters my guess would be that the feeling is let the legal system deal with it. Additionally since the BIG 10 is about Academics do you punish the Academic side of an institution?
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Doug,
“I’m not an attorney but is there even a mechanism to kick someone out of a conference for a scandal?”
It depends on the rules for each conference, but generally a super majority vote of some kind (maybe even unanimous) is capable of removing a member. You always need some mechanism just in case a school goes rogue.
“There would be major financial considerations TV revenue etc.”
Yep. Lawyers work out tricky situations all the time.
“Using PSU as an example. They are a fully paid up partner in the BTN. They would have to be bought out, how would you determine the value?”
Pay lawyers to argue about it. Probably look at the buy-in costs for the newbies and the original members as well as standard valuation guidelines and other network sales (like YES network). Then overpay to keep the business details secret.
“But let’s say they get tossed. Now with the precedent set do you toss MSU.”
The B10 COP/C discussed (and quickly rejected) the notion of kicking out PSU and presumably have done the same with MSU. If PSU had been booted, MSU might be on shaky ground but PSU had more people charged criminally early on so perhaps they would be seen as different issues.
“Then what about the next scandal? You end up hurting your conference value wise.”
I’m sure this slippery slope is one reason they quickly rejected the idea of booting PSU.
“Since these are criminal matters my guess would be that the feeling is let the legal system deal with it.”
What if the issue isn’t really criminal, or at least less so? What if a school was actively promoting anti-minority (or another protected class) talk and actions and not only ignoring but helping cover up any abuse of minority students (yes, I know physical abuse is illegal) as a matter of policy? What if there was proof this was a policy decreed by the BoT and actively driven by the administration and faculty? Would any other school want to stay affiliated with them irregardless of any penalties they suffered?
“Additionally since the BIG 10 is about Academics do you punish the Academic side of an institution?”
If the academic side is participating (Spanier at PSU was convicted), why should it be immune from punishment? That said, the AD is part of the whole school so any financial punishment hits everyone to some extent anyway.
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Brian,
What if the issue isn’t really criminal, or at least less so? What if a school was actively promoting anti-minority (or another protected class) talk and actions and not only ignoring but helping cover up any abuse of minority students (yes, I know physical abuse is illegal) as a matter of policy? What if there was proof this was a policy decreed by the BoT and actively driven by the administration and faculty? Would any other school want to stay affiliated with them irregardless of any penalties they suffered?
Good question for which i have no answer. Do you think the Ivy League treatment of Asian-Americans might be an example. It’s seems however all the Ivy League schools were involved. IMO I don’t think anything will happen on the Athletic side.
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It’s a decent example except I don’t think it’s nearly bad enough. If they were actively helping skinhead groups grow and intimidate people and getting the cops to hide the crimes and/or grading Asian students much more harshly? That would be more on the scale I think it would take.
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Ohio State might be next in line. Pres. Drake is trying to get ahead of the Strauss scandal, but the result is likely to be a settlement somewhere between PSU’s $60M and MSU’s $500M.
Does anyone think tOSU would be expelled for Strauss’ actions?
Here’s and idea: Expel PSU, MSU and tOSU. Maybe Michigan could win the title. Or maybe the B1G would have to expel Wisky, too.
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bob sykes,
“Ohio State might be next in line.”
They really might.
“Pres. Drake is trying to get ahead of the Strauss scandal, but the result is likely to be a settlement somewhere between PSU’s $60M and MSU’s $500M.”
https://www.indystar.com/story/news/2018/07/16/usa-diving-sexual-abuse-lawsuit-usa-gymnastics-usa-swimming/787523002/
Not only that, but now there is talk about a former diving coach forcing a 16-year old into a sexual relationship and the current one knowing about it. This is all part of a bigger problem involving USA Diving which some say is worse than the problems in USA Gymnastics or USA Swimming.
“Does anyone think tOSU would be expelled for Strauss’ actions?”
No, especially because he died long before athletes came forward publicly.
“Here’s and idea: Expel PSU, MSU and tOSU. Maybe Michigan could win the title. Or maybe the B1G would have to expel Wisky, too.”
Obviously that won’t happen, but every B10 schools needs to look into every single coach and doctor they’ve had over the past 50 years and ask former athletes about any problems. I’m sick of seeing B10 schools involved in these scandals. Why aren’t other conferences having this?
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Here’s another example of why “fit” matters. Baylor’s enrollment of ~16K is the the second smallest Big 12 school by enrollment, ~10K* students off of the mean. If we use that as a proxy for support (greater enrollment = more donations, fans, etc), to compete over long run Baylor’s risk tolerance has to be higher.
*The smallest is TCU ~16K(!) off of the mean.
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“Risk tolerance”?
Are you suggesting theee is a financial sliding scale for ethical behavior?
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I’m suggesting that in order to have their front door (we all know how important athletics are to enrollment etc) be seen as a peer to their more resource rich conference mates they are going to take more risks on coaches and players. Ideally they wouldn’t be on recruits/coaches with criminal tendencies, but that is some of the easier ones to convince yourself to take.
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Auburn came close to losing regional accreditation about a decade ago when its boosters ran amok (check the Opelika-Auburn News at that time for proof). Since Southeastern Conference by-laws require all member schools to be accredited, this would’ve thrown the SEC into turmoil.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/07/10/lsu-alabama-2011-bcs-title-game-playoff
Did the LSU/AL rematch title game really cause the death of the BCS or was that going to happen anyway?
Twenty years after the formula’s first season, it’s still up for debate to what extent Alabama 21, LSU 0 really did take down the BCS. Many fans, coaches and even some administrators point to the game as a tipping point that toppled the system, the final straw that forced decision-makers to bring about a change. For instance, Kramer says, “I’m not sure we wouldn’t still have the BCS” if not for that game.
Some saw that moment as a case of coincidental timing and considered it inevitable that eventually change would come to a system so ridiculed and disparaged for less glaringly unentertaining outcomes.
“LSU-Bama was more of the cherry on the cake than the cause,” said Jim Delany, the Big Ten commissioner who was heavily involved in the change to the College Football Playoff. “It’s sort of like the Berlin Wall coming down. It came down for a lot of reasons. The LSU-Bama game shouldn’t be under-mentioned, but I’m not sure it mattered if it had two teams from different conferences. The BCS was doomed. It had run its course.”
…
“If Oklahoma State would have played LSU in that game,” SEC Network analyst Booger McFarland says, “we still have the BCS.”
…
Inside the home of former Sun Belt commissioner Wright Waters is a dusty box containing dozens of notebooks filled with alternative playoff proposals, all of them discussed years ago in meetings of the most powerful people in college football: the 10 FBS conference commissioners.
There was a four-team model with on-campus semifinals, an eight-team bracket and another proposal that left the BCS unchanged. In the early weeks of 2012 as the Tide celebrated their title, the FBS commissioners began the first real steps of change, splitting off into four groups, each tasked with developing and solving problems with four playoff models. “We started with over 100 [proposals],” says Waters, now the executive of the Football Bowl Association. “We got stuff in the mail daily. You should have seen the things people came up with.”
…
The playoff discussions intensified in the new decade; a 2011 meeting of commissioners in New Orleans at the Windsor Court grew so “intense,” Waters says, that dinner that night turned into pro-playoff commissioners lobbying pro-BCS commissioners all the way through dessert. During another meeting in Colorado, discussions about a playoff had overwhelmed the proceedings to a point that Waters admits he “threw a temper tantrum,” pounding on a table to get the group to move on to other issues that impacted college football.
“I started talking about other things, and commissioners started walking out of the room to make phone calls,” Waters laughs.
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It should have been LSU v OK State….
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Yep. The mistake then is the same mistake I think the CFP makes now. They didn’t and don’t place enough value on a conference championship. Computers can’t account for the pressure teams feel and didn’t give any weight to winning titles. The committee is supposed to value titles but instead have found small differences to avoid invoking titles. A conference title shouldn’t be a requirement to make the CFP, but it should be the default expectation. A non-champion conference member should have to be head and shoulders above other champs to get in, especially as a second team from their conference. If it’s debatable, then the champion should always get the nod. OSU has been on both sides of this so I don’t think it’s bias speaking.
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I disagree. A conference championship should be a mandatory requirement for getting into the playoffs. That excludes ND, but who cares?
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I understand that attitude and in general I agree with it. But when you get into the details, it falls apart for me.
1. I don’t believe independents should be eliminated automatically. Every school should have a chance to get in, including G5s and independents.
2. What if only 2 or 3 P5 champs have elite seasons? Should an 8-5 champ really be in a better position than a 12-1 CCG loser or 11-1 runner-up/independent to win the national title? I don’t think so.
3. Conference championships are important but they ignore 25-33% of every team’s season. Why would a national title not consider every game equally (before weighting on difficulty, etc)?
If I had my way, the CFP would develop an algorithm (combine polls, computer rankings, advanced stats and “worthiness” measures like conference titles) that ranks the teams as a starting point. Only then would the committee get involved in possibly fine-tuning the results. They would have to articulate clear reasons why the system is wrong (a specific injury, weather condition, bad call, other circumstance like OkSU’s plane crash before they lost in 2011, etc) before making a change and would be limited in how far they can bump or drop a team. In any close call, a conference champion would get the nod.
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The mistake then is the same mistake I think the CFP makes now. They didn’t and don’t place enough value on a conference championship. Computers can’t account for the pressure teams feel and didn’t give any weight to winning titles.
For what it’s worth, the computers favored Okie St. over ‘Bama. It was the voters that gave the Tide the #2 ranking.
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I wasn’t intending to compliment the voters, just point out an innate aspect of computer polls. That’s why I criticized the CFP committee in the next sentence. The computers are good for a lack of brand bias (Is A really better than B?) but they can’t consider everything which is why you want a human component.
You can build algorithms that value conference titles, but none of the BCS systems did because it’s not good ranking data.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/josh-rosen-overhaul-college-athletics-want-idea-get-people-talking-074448893.html
Josh Rosen and a couple of lawyers put together a detailed plan for how to pay student athletes yet maintain amateurism.
Josh Rosen envisions an NCAA that actually works for all involved parties – fulfilling the lofty ideals of higher education and addressing the brass-tacks reality of fair athlete compensation. And he doesn’t want to blow up the entire thing to make it happen.
“I’m not against the NCAA,” Rosen said. “I do strongly believe in the student-athlete experience, and I don’t think the free market is the way to go. I also don’t want a system that was created in the 1950s to stay the way it was. I want it to be like the iPhone, constantly updating to stay current with the times.
“I want this idea to get people talking. I want this to sort of be the WD-40 that unlocks the stuck gears of how to compensate student-athletes.”
…
Rosen understands this much: It’s not a perfect idea. Adding another layer of NCAA bureaucracy to act as revenue agents for student-athletes would create its own set of problems and complications. There are other facets that would benefit from a tweaking.
Basically he wants to create a clearinghouse that players can choose to allow to license their likeness. If so, the clearinghouse handles all negotiations and the money is put into an account. The player can only get it by graduating within 8 years (to accommodate players that go pro early) and not losing NCAA eligibility nor getting convicted of certain crimes.
They have suggested revenue splits:
Players – 50% (60% for individual deals)
Clearinghouse – 25% (for expenses)
NCAA – 15% (10% for individual deals)
General scholarship fund – 10% (5% for individual deals)
You can get a 40 page PDF of the plan at http://www.fairplay4ncaa.com/
They say very little about the schools, but a player’s likeness often includes a uniform and the schools built the player’s name recognition.
This is all I could find:
NCAA Member Institutions will increase licensing revenue through reopened channels such as video games and other group license opportunities created or bolstered by the Program (e.g. licensees will have to negotiate licenses with NCAA Member Institutions to use their rights in conjunction with such licensee’s group license with respect to Student-Athletes, etc…)
…
License: grant of license to use the Likeness on Marketing Materials (whether Premier, Full or Limited, see Page 13 for definitions). This license will expressly exclude Third-Party Rights (e.g. marks relating to the NCAA and any Institution, see Page 14 for definition).
I take this to mean they can’t use uniform pictures without also making a deal with the school. I still think the schools deserve a large cut of any money the players get. Nobody would know who these athletes are without the schools.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/acc/2018/07/18/larry-fedora-worries-change-football-country-go-down/796288002/
Larry Fedora went on a rant at ACC media days.
It hasn’t been definitively proven that football causes CTE, Fedora said during his appearance at Atlantic Coast Conference media days, but the fact that the connection has been made has impacted how people view the sport.
Fedora also spoke specifically about how rule changes in college football are changing the game, and not for the better. As football goes, Fedora said, so goes our country.
“Our game is under attack,” Fedora said. “I fear that the game will be pushed so far from what we know that we won’t recognize it 10 years from now. And if it does, our country will go down, too.”
…
Fedora also relayed the following anecdote: He spoke with a general – military branch unknown – and asked what made America’s forces the strongest in the world. It’s because the U.S. is the only country that plays football, the general replied, per Fedora.
“I think because of the lessons you learn in the game of football relate to everything you’re going to do for the rest of your life,” Fedora said. “When we stop learning those lessons, we’re going to struggle.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/07/18/college-football-playoff-no-expansion-bill-hancock/795466002/
This isn’t news, but the CFP is happy at 4 teams.
There is no talk about expansion among the iuniversity presidents and the commissioners,” Hancock said. “They are quite happy with the four-team playoff.”
…
The CFP works. It works well,” Hancock said. “(Limiting it to) four teams keeps the focus on this wonderful regular season, the most meaningful and compelling in all of sports. Four lets us keep the bowl experience for thousands of student-athletes. Four keeps college football within the framework of higher education.”
Hancock added: “It has been a very good game, good year, good four years, for this game that we love so much.”
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Getting a quote from Hancock is like asking a candidate’s campaign manager if he thought his guy won the debate. There’s no more meaningless comments.
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I did say it wasn’t news.
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According to an article on onthebanks.com (Rutgers), the B1G has the largest percentage of colleges in the top 100 in the world of any league, other than the Ivies. Here the B1G schools and their rankings.
4th – University of Michigan
14th – University of Wisconsin- Madison
21st – University of Minnesota- Twin Cities
24th – Northwestern University
32nd – Rutgers University
34th – University of Illinois- Urbana-Champaign
44th – University of Maryland
46th – Pennsylvania State University
84th – Ohio State University
100th – Michigan State University
Here are the conference percentages
Ivy: 75%
Big 10: 71%
ACC: 50%
PAC 12: 42%
SEC: 21%
Big 12: 10%
Mountain West: 9%
Notre Dame was not counted in the ACC.
https://www.onthebanks.com/2018/7/18/17431056/thats-right-academics-matter-too-rutgers-university-new-jersey-big-ten-aau-best-schools
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They edited their article to show that the Ivies were at 100%. They missed 1 or 2 as they went through the list initially.
Much as ND wasn’t counted for the ACC, neither was JHU or ND counted for the B10. That would be a cheap way to inflate the B10’s percentage to 75% (12 of 16). Likewise, counting ND for the ACC would bump them to 53%.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/sec/2018/07/19/gus-malzahn-sec-media-days-nine-conference-games/800206002/
Gus Malzahn is now in favor of the SEC going to 9 games. That makes 2 coaches. He probably wants it just to make AL’s schedule tougher (AL plays TN as a locked rival while AU gets UGA), but any progress is good.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2018/07/19/disney-wins-bidding-war-fox-assets-comcast-focus-sky/799500002/
Comcast has given up on trying to buy Fox, clearing the way for Disney to do it if the government allows.
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https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/rethinking-realignment-scheduling-divisions-power-conferences-2018/
Another fantasy realignment piece of the “What if I was the CFB commissioner?” type.
It’s built on 4 steps:
1. Blow up the Big 12 to create the Power 4
Texas — SEC
Kansas State — SEC
Oklahoma — Big Ten
Kansas — Big Ten
West Virginia — ACC
Baylor — ACC
Iowa State — Pac-12
Oklahoma State — Pac-12
TCU — Pac-12
Texas Tech — Pac-12
2. The amnesty rule
… Instead of just eliminating the worst team from every conference, I propose an amnesty rule. That means conferences are allowed to remove 1 team and replace it with a Group of 5/Independent team.
They can only do so every 4 years, though. …
ACC amnesties Wake Forest for Notre Dame
Pac-12 amnesties Oregon State for Boise State
3. Changed scheduling
7 division games
1 crossover
3 P4 OOC games (1 from each other P4 conference)
1 G5/Independent OOC game (no I-AA allowed)
4. New divisions
These are designed to provide better competitive balance than the current divisions.
ACC
ATLANTIC
Clemson
Miami
Louisville
Duke
Baylor
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
Virginia
COASTAL
Florida State
Notre Dame
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
N.C. State
Pitt
UNC
Boston College
Big Ten
EAST
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan
Iowa
Purdue
Minnesota
Maryland
Illinois
WEST
Oklahoma
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Nebraska
Northwestern
Indiana
Rutgers
Kansas
Pac-12
NORTH
Washington
Oklahoma State
Washington State
Oregon
Arizona State
Iowa State
Arizona
Colorado
SOUTH
USC
Stanford
TCU
Boise State
UCLA
Texas Tech
Utah
Cal
SEC
EAST
Georgia
LSU
Texas A&M
Florida
Ole Miss
Kansas State
Mizzou
Vanderbilt
WEST
Alabama
Auburn
Texas
Mississippi State
Tennessee
South Carolina
Kentucky
Arkansas
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Ridiculous, though it would be slightly less so if Iowa State were sent to the ACC and Baylor to the Pac, where it would be aligned with Okie State, TCU and Texas Tech.
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Agreed. His whole premise is flawed, but they always are for pieces like this. Then his B12 choices were terrible. Finally his division splits are silly. But other than that …
My best attempt to fix it while staying within his rules follows.
B12 split:
Texas — P12
TCU — P12
Texas Tech — P12
Baylor — P12
West Virginia — ACC
Iowa State — nobody (went to ACC but “amnestied” for ND)
Oklahoma — Big Ten
Kansas — Big Ten
Kansas State — SEC
Oklahoma State — SEC
I used geography as much as possible. At the end I split the OK and KS schools so the B10 and SEC both got 2 states for their footprint. The B10 got OU because he said the goal was to increase parity. Also, the 2 SUs wouldn’t fit at all culturally in the B10. In other words, I’m a B10 fan so I gave the B10 the better pair. If not for that, KU really should be in the SEC with Missouri.
ACC
ATLANTIC
ND
BC
SU
Pitt
WV
UL
FSU
Miami
COASTAL
UVA
VT
UNC
NCSU
Duke
WF
Clemson
GT
B10
EAST
RU
UMD
PSU
OSU
MI
MSU
IN
PU
WEST
OU
KU
NE
IA
MN
WI
NW
IL
Pac-12
NORTH
UW
WSU
UO
OrSU
Cal
Stanford
UCLA
USC
SOUTH
CU
Utah
UA
ASU
UT
TT
TCU
Baylor
SEC
EAST
UF
UGA
SC
UK
TN
VU
AL
AU
WEST
KSU
MO
OkSU
TAMU
AR
LSU
MS
MsSU
There are no good divisions for some of these conferences so I mostly stuck to geography.
Schedule (small tweaks):
7 division games
2 crossovers (can lock a rivalry if really needed)
1 P4 OOC game
2 G5/Independent OOC games (not allowed in last 3 weeks)
Ideally I wouldn’t use divisions at all, but that was his plan.
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“B12 split:
Texas — P12
TCU — P12
Texas Tech — P12
Baylor — P12
West Virginia — ACC
Iowa State — nobody (went to ACC but “amnestied” for ND)
Oklahoma — Big Ten
Kansas — Big Ten
Kansas State — SEC
Oklahoma State — SEC“
The Pac says they’ll take ISU – let ACC “amnesty“ Baylor.
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Fine by me personally, but it doesn’t make much sense geographically. I think the P12 might just “amnesty” ISU for Boise to reduce travel and add a football brand.
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Thankfully for ISU and its large base of long-suffering fans, plans such as this have nearly no chance of passing. However, it still might be left out to try through no fault of its own a decade from now, following the next round of realignment.
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Make that “left out to dry.“
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Yet again, a realignment proposal from someone who has literally no understanding of the college scene or what an athletic conference is all about. It’s the culture, dummy.
Did this guy even go to college?
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Apparently he went to Indiana and covered the MBB team there until 2012. Then he worked in NE before moving to the south in 2015. In other words, he should know better. Maybe the lack of CFB focus while at IU is the problem.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/07/big-ten-preview-cfn-preview-2018
B10 preview.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/07/big-ten-media-days-key-questions-answers-daily-five
5 questions for B10 media days.
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https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/07/ohio_state_barely_edges_wiscon.html
The official unofficial B10 preseason poll is out.
B10 East
1. Ohio State, 191.5 points (23.5 first-place votes)
2. Michigan State, 142 points (2)
3. Penn State, 141.5 points (1)
4. Michigan, 140.5 points (1.5)
5. Maryland, 75.5 points
6. Indiana, 60 points
7. Rutgers, 33 points
B10 West
1. Wisconsin, 196 points (28 first-place votes)
2. Iowa, 155 points
3. Northwestern, 138 points
4. Nebraska, 104 points
5. Purdue, 98.5 points
6. Minnesota, 64.5 points
7. Illinois, 28 points
* Among second-place votes in the East, Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan each received eight, while Ohio State had four second-place votes. No voter picked Ohio State lower than second.
* Northwestern and Nebraska had the widest range, with each team receiving votes for second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the West.
B10 champ:
OSU – 14
WI – 13
MSU – 1
Ohio State over Wisconsin (14)
Wisconsin over Ohio State (9)
Wisconsin over Michigan (2)
Wisconsin over Penn State (1)
Wisconsin over Michigan State (1)
Michigan State over Wisconsin (1)
Playoff:
OSU – 13
WI – 12
OSU and WI – 2
MSU – 1
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https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/07/ohio_states_nick_bosa_penn_sta.html
The unofficial preseason players of the year were also named.
DPOY – Nick Bosa (OSU)
1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State DE, 74 points, (20 first-place votes)
2. Rashan Gary, Michigan DE, 38 points, (6)
3. T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin LB, 24 points
4. Devin Bush, Michigan LB, 14 points (1)
5. Paddy Fisher, Northwestern LB, 8 points (1)
6. Joe Bachie, Michigan State LB, 5 points
7. Chase Winovich, Michigan DE, 2 points
8. D’Cota Dixon, Wisconsin S, 1 point
8. Olive Sagapolu, Wisconsin DT, 1 points
8. Khaleke Hudson, Michigan LB, 1 point
OPOY – Trace McSorely (PSU)
1. Trace McSorley, Penn State QB, 66 points, (14 first-place votes)
2. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin RB, 61 points, (11)
3. JK Dobbins, Ohio State RB, 28 points, (2)
4. Brian Lewerke, Michigan State QB, 7 points, (1)
5. Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State QB, 3 points
6. Noah Fant, Iowa TE, 2 points
7. Shea Patterson, Michigan QB, 1 point
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24142400/coaches-their-everlasting-quest-coach-turnovers
Turnovers are largely about luck despite what coaches preach. There are situations where a team is more likely to commit a TO (passes, esp. 3rd and long, and when trailing) but there really isn’t much evidence for it being a skill generally.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/07/94499/zach-smith-out-as-ohio-state-wide-receivers-coach
OSU has fired WR coach Zach Smith. He has a history of domestic violence against his now ex-wife that probably should have kept him off the payroll in the first place except she didn’t press charges. Regardless, after the the #MeToo movement and with the Dr. Strauss scandal in the news I don’t think OSU had any choice here.
Smith has been a lightning rod for OSU fans lately anyway. He is a great recruiter but many of his WRs have failed to show much development under his coaching with lots of sloppy routes, dropped balls and failure to get open. On the other hand, many of them have gotten drafted by the NFL so maybe it was more on the QB or scheme. One other factor is that he is Earle Bruce’s grandson and Bruce gave Meyer his first coaching job back in the day.
OSU has former OSU and NFL WR Brian Hartline on staff already as a quality control coach, so he may get the job for fall camp. Meyer’s background is as a WR coach plus OSU has 2 OCs in Kevin Wilson (also TE coach) and Ryan Day (also QB coach) so they should be fine on that front for now. It isn’t a great time to look to hire a new coach.
Timeline:
* 2009 – Arrested for felony assault on his 3-months pregnant wife but she refused to press charges. The police report indicated that damage to her clothing and bruises on him supported her story of events. Smith was a graduate assistant at UF under Meyer at that point.
* 2012 – Meyer hired Smith to be WR coach at OSU.
* 2015 – Police called to their house after she reported “that a domestic incident happened last night at her home and that she has been a victim of sustained physical abuse by the suspect.”
* May – Smith was charged with criminal trespass when he drove into his ex-wife’s driveway to drop off their son. He had received a warning from the police for the same infraction in December.
* Wednesday – Smith had to appear in court over the criminal trespass issue, bringing the issue back into the public eye.
* Friday – She filed a 5-year domestic violence protection order in court which is granted unless a judge overturns it in early August.
*Today – Smith was fired.
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https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/07/what_is_zach_smiths_future_at.html
A couple more notes:
1. Meyer has made a very big deal about having “respect for women” as a core tenet of his program. If a coach isn’t punished for breaking that, it’s hard to hold players accountable.
2. Tomorrow is OSU’s turn at B10 media days so a response had to come quickly. Meyer was sure to be asked about it a lot. At least now he has a concrete response to mention.
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https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/07/urban_meyer_explains_zach_smit.html
Meyer spoke about the issue.
Other reports on Monday detailed a 2015 domestic abuse allegation against Smith in Ohio. Meyer said he was unaware of that, and couldn’t find any record of it when he looked into it.
“When I first heard that last night, I did some research and there was nothing,” Meyer said. “I don’t know. Someone texted me that last night. I said, ‘2015?’ That was only a couple years ago. I told people to go find out for me. I’m not sure where that comes up.”
Meyer did, though, say he was aware of the 2009 incident in Florida.
“In 2009 we were aware of that,” Meyer said. “It was a young couple. He was an intern for us. Any time I get a phone call or something like that, I tell my boss and let the experts do their job. It came to me what happened, we advised them in counseling and moved forward. There were no charges, and what was reported was not what was told to me afterwards.”
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/talkingtech/2018/07/24/cord-cutting-accelerate-millions-more-than-expected-leaving-pay-tv/823950002/
Cord cutting may be accelerating.
A new forecast from research firm eMarketer suggests that this year 6 million more TV viewers will depart pay TV for internet video services such as Netflix and Hulu.
The number of cord cutters, those who cancel pay TV, is expected to climb 32.8 percent this year to 33 million. That’s higher than the 27.1 million (22 percent growth rate) cord cutters expected for 2018 in eMarketer’s forecast last year.
And those decisions are thinning the ranks of those who are inclined to pay companies such as Comcast, AT&T’s DirecTV and others for entertainment. Overall, 186.7 million U.S. adults will watch cable, satellite or telco-delivered pay TV in 2018, down 3.8 percent over last year, according to eMarketer’s latest U.S. pay TV/over-the-top video forecast, based on 30 different research sources. That decline is higher than the 3.4 percent drop in 2017.
Also accelerating is viewership on YouTube, Netflix, Amazon and Hulu. YouTube retains the largest audience with an expected 192 million U.S. viewers, but Netflix is expected to hit 147.5 million viewers by the end of the year, eMarketer says.
Amazon is expected to hit 88.7 million viewers, with Hulu amassing 55 million, the research firm says.
The one factor to remember is that the online providers are starting to raise their prices for slim bundles and other products. At some point, the cost of multiple streaming services plus internet service will put you right back at the price of the old cable + internet bundles.
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There are limits to how far cord-cutting can go. Anyone who lives more than about 35 to 40 miles from a TV broadcaster cannot receive the signal and must rely on other sources. In my case, it is satellite TV, because there is no local cable company and never will be. The local telephone company does offer DLS, which we have, but the available bit rate is a trivial fraction of what cable offers, and it is marginal for streaming.
However, cable-cutting is an option for city dwellers who can still get HDTV broadcasts.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/news/big-ten-network-fears-comcast-may-preparing-drop-channel-altogether-163413762.html
Speaking of cord cutting. The head of BTN said at media days that he’s concerned that Comcast might drop BTN entirely. He was referring to Comcast’s decision in spring to remove BTN from Comcast outside of the footprint as the first step in a larger plan.
“Unlike the usual scenario in these carriage disputes, there is no economic benefit to Comcast at all to do this and removed BTN from their systems outside the Big Ten area, which begs the question: Why did they do this?” Silverman rhetorically asked.
“Well — within the Big Ten footprint — Comcast systems are also the primary cable provider. In fact, 10 of the 14 schools in the Big Ten are markets where Comcast is the leading cable provider. Basically everyone except for Ohio State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa. Every other school Comcast is the leading cable provider.”
“Unfortunately, my fear is the removal of BTN in the outer market may just be the first step in Comcast’s plan to remove BTN from their systems everywhere, including the Big Ten home markets.”
…
The Big Ten Network’s availability on Comcast is not the only issue between the conference and cable provider. Silverman said the agreements for Big Ten football games broadcast on Fox and Fox Sports 1 are also set to expire. Fox has the top-tier rights for Big Ten football games, meaning the conference’s biggest games are on its networks. The Big Ten Network is a joint operation between the conference and Fox, similar to the SEC’s arrangement with ESPN.
Silverman said the Big Ten has not heard back from Comcast regarding a proposal it sent the cable provider. If there’s no resolution to the negotiations, Big Ten football games that aren’t on ESPN could be blacked out from Comcast subscribers, Silverman said.
“Now, in addition to the BTN agreement expiring, so is the agreement for all Big Ten games that air on FS1,” Silverman said. “BTN and FS1 have made a proposal to Comcast dating back to February, and we’ve had no substantive response at all. As a result, we believe BTN and those Big Ten games that are on FS1 are in danger of not being carried on Comcast this coming season. So we are letting people know this to alert Comcast subscribers of this real possibility they may lose these games.”
“The good news is that Comcast will be alone if they decide to drop BTN and those Big Ten games on FS1. These games are available on many different television providers, cable, satellite and the new Internet providers as well, and viewers will have no problem finding alternative providers in their area.”
Refusing to carry games on channels that you carry (Fox and FS1)? That sport of crap is why people hate cable companies. May they burn to the ground and take their executives with them.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/cord-cutting-can-change-entire-landscape-college-football-215556228.html
Dan Wetzel looks deeper into how cord cutting could impact CFB.
Disaster isn’t imminent, but you could consider the comments by Big Ten Network president Mark Silverman Tuesday as a flashing warning light for not just conference-owned cable channels that funneled massive money into college sports, but the very schools and conferences that rely on that revenue.
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But what if conference television networks are no longer such a smashing success? Cable television is not a growth industry, with cord-cutting dropping the number of basic cable consumers blindly paying in, and cable providers mindful of keeping bills low as to not scare away existing customers.
It becomes easy to drop low-rated networks, and for all the hype about these channels, they struggle to draw regular viewers, especially beyond live football and men’s basketball games. There are just only so many fans, let alone ones willing to pay for it.
Which is one reason why cable giant Comcast is threatening to pull the Big Ten Network (as well as FS1, which shows league games) off basic cable packages. It already did outside the league footprint on second-tier packages. Now it is saying BTN will no longer be on basic cable in communities in the league area as of September 1.
“BTN is now facing our biggest challenge since the launch of the network,” Silverman said at Big Ten Media Days in Chicago. “Our 10-year agreement with Comcast expires at the end of August. A few months ago, BTN was removed from out-of-market cable systems on Comcast, which is the leading cable provider in the country. … It’s extremely concerning.”
Comcast isn’t just the No. 1 cable provider in the country; it’s No. 1 in the 11 Big Ten states – five of those (Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and New Jersey) rank in the top 11 nationally and have a combined population alone of 56.1 million. If the channel stops being carried, not only will fewer fans be able to watch games through cable television, a lot fewer dollars will come into the Big Ten.
And if Comcast can do this with the Big Ten, then why not the SEC and others?
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How do schools such as Michigan maintain the funding needed for all the new workers, all the new construction, all the new everything? No, not now. Michigan, and everyone else’s, check will clear. Don’t pass the hat for the Big Ten quite yet.
In five years though? In 10? Will there even be such a thing as basic cable to profit off?
And if not, then what’s the real value of some of these expansion teams? Rutgers has been non-competitive on the field and mostly a hot mess off of it. Other than some initial football victories, you can say the same about Missouri and the SEC.
The only thing either brought to their respective conferences was basic cable subscribers in their populous home states. What if that no longer matters and the schools actually pulling the freight (Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, so on) are faced with belt tightening?
Do they cut sports and staff? Or do conferences splinter apart? Do the strong cut off the weak to protect themselves? Is smaller actually better than bigger?
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The only thing either brought to their respective conferences was basic cable subscribers in their populous home states. What if that no longer matters and the schools actually pulling the freight (Ohio State, Alabama, Penn State, so on) are faced with belt tightening?
Do they cut sports and staff? Or do conferences splinter apart? Do the strong cut off the weak to protect themselves? Is smaller actually better than bigger?
This is why I’ve always thought 16 was an unstable number. At that point the top 8 schools can essentially cull the bottom 8 by leaving and starting a new network. That leaves the old conference in the hands of the bottom 8, so they’re technically not booting anyone. They can negotiate a new contract (probably at a higher per school rate then they would get when they were 16), and the old conference goes to hell revenue wise since I’m sure a mass exodus will trigger all kinds of codicils in the contract.
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With the SEC & BIG out pacing the other P5 conferences in revenues how long until the cumulative effect takes over and starts to possibly makes schools unable to compete?
Would the top say 64 Schools break away and form their own organization for football? The schools left being unable or unwilling to compete. If the players are eventually paid the revenue issue becomes an even larger factor? Even if the only compensation is to allow a player to control his likeness and image. That likeness would mean more $ to a player at Ohio State than say Wake Forest.
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Doug,
“With the SEC & BIG out pacing the other P5 conferences in revenues how long until the cumulative effect takes over and starts to possibly makes schools unable to compete?”
A long time. The B10 and SEC schools waste a lot of money on things with very little marginal return (locker room extravagance, etc) because they can. And don’t forget that ticket sales and donations are still a huge chunk of the AD’s budget. Conference payouts aren’t even half of the budget for the lowest revenue P5s. And the highest revenue G5s overlap with the bottom of the P5 for now at least. The difference is how much the students support the AD. Is that unsustainable? Probably. But schools with much smaller budgets still have been competitive in games against the P5, plus they keep demanding more for road games to supplement their budgets.
UCF just made a run at a national title (sort of). They make less than every P5 school. WMU had a great season before that and they make about 20% of what UM makes. Money isn’t everything and the free advertising that major athletics brings to schools results in applications and thus tuition.
“Would the top say 64 Schools break away and form their own organization for football? The schools left being unable or unwilling to compete. If the players are eventually paid the revenue issue becomes an even larger factor? Even if the only compensation is to allow a player to control his likeness and image. That likeness would mean more $ to a player at Ohio State than say Wake Forest.
You are mostly talking about one group of state schools trying to screw over other schools in their own state so the rich can get richer. Why would politicians allow that? Over 300 schools compete for the same men’s hoop title. Why would football need to fracture even more? The only excuse I could see is if the G5 schools request some intermediate level that is much less expensive to operate like I-AA is now (63 scholarships vs 85).
If the players must be paid by the schools that could be an issue. On the other hand, a player at a smaller program would by default be worth a lot less just like some law firms pay more than others. And if it is just letting players make money from their likeness, that comes from outside sources.
The other factor to remember is that if they go too far down this path, CFB just becomes a lesser version of the NFL and loses its uniqueness. Donations and ticket sales would likely be impacted, especially as formerly great programs start having 6-6 seasons regularly because they don’t have any cupcake games left.
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Nathan,
“This is why I’ve always thought 16 was an unstable number. At that point the top 8 schools can essentially cull the bottom 8 by leaving and starting a new network. That leaves the old conference in the hands of the bottom 8, so they’re technically not booting anyone. They can negotiate a new contract (probably at a higher per school rate then they would get when they were 16), and the old conference goes to hell revenue wise since I’m sure a mass exodus will trigger all kinds of codicils in the contract.”
I think every case is different. 16 doesn’t have to be unstable, it’s just the threshold at which a conference can split into two. Barring a near apocalypse, I can’t think of a scenario in which the old B10 members wouldn’t stick together. Athletic money is nice, but academics are much more important. Nobody wants to drop NW even though they have a smaller fan base or PU because they’ve been bad at football lately. More importantly, RU and UMD brought both solid academics and large and growing regions full of future students that will be looking out of state at a time when the midwest is aging.
Is every conference that stable? Of course not. A 16-team SEC would probably be safe because it would be so secure financially. Geography would pose a threat to any western conference of 16. Money is an issue for the P12 schools because of fan interest levels. Money is an issue in the B12 because it’s all based on UT and the state of TX. To be safe geographically, they’d have to add local G5 schools (Boise, BYU; UH, etc) or G5s with no chance of moving to a more local P5 (Cincinnati, UCF, USF, etc). But that leaves them vulnerable financially. To be safe financially, one P5 would need to add other P5 schools (or a major independent) but those schools would be more likely to consider switching P5s yet again than any G5 would. The real concern is adding a high value school (UT, ND) because they know that everyone wants them.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2018/07/25/best-cities-tech-denver-midwest-emerge-new-hubs-tech-workers/819840002/
The midwest has several burgeoning hubs for tech workers.
While the San Francisco Bay Area and Seattle dominate in availability of these high-paying jobs and the ability to attract tech workers, cities in the Midwest, Southern California and Canada are also becoming sought-after tech hubs, according to an annual analysis released by commercial real estate firm CBRE.
It ranked the best cities for tech talent, based on metrics such as rental costs for employees and companies, as well as available tech talent and outlook for jobs.
The top 10 cities remained largely the same as last year’s report, led by the San Francisco Bay Area, Seattle, Washington, D.C., Toronto and New York City. Denver is the one newcomer, replacing Dallas/Fort Worth.
Smaller markets (with fewer than 50,000 tech workers) in the Midwest – where there has been a major effort to attract more tech startups in recent years – saw increases in the number of tech talent jobs.
These jobs include software developers and programmers; computer support, database and systems jobs; technology and engineering-related jobs; and computer and information system managers.
Madison, Wisconsin, added 6,720 tech talent jobs in the last five years, a 39.5 percent increase, to 23,740. Columbus, Ohio, and Pittsburgh both added more than 6,700 tech talent jobs in the last five years. The latter two cities are close to surpassing 50,000 tech workers and becoming major markets for tech.
Madison, Pittsburgh and Cleveland all made the top 10 for the largest changes in momentum (by %) in the market over the past 2 years.
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/07/2018-cfn-five-year-program-analysis-attendance-rankings-by-conference
This lists the 5-year average attendance by conference. I want to look at it a different way. Below I resort by % of capacity rather than total numbers. The rankings are the ranks for total attendance.
ACC
1. Clemson – 100.51%
4. NC State – 96.84%
2. Florida State – 95.24%
3. Virginia Tech – 95.15%
7. Louisville – 92.79%
8. Georgia Tech – 88.25%
13. Wake Forest – 87.10%
5. Miami – 83.74%
6. North Carolina – 81.31%
12. Boston College – 74.41%
11. Syracuse – 72.09%
14. Duke – 68.23%
10. Virginia – 67.71%
9. Pitt – 67.66%
Big Ten
2. Ohio State – 104.22%
1. Michigan – 101.99%
4. Nebraska – 103.84%
6. Michigan State – 98.35%
5. Wisconsin – 98.26%
3. Penn State – 94.77%
7. Iowa – 94.57%
8. Minnesota – 92.98%
9. Rutgers – 87.49%
10. Indiana – 82.48%
11. Maryland – 81.80%
14. Northwestern – 77.21%
13. Purdue – 71.31%
12. Illinois – 69.80%
Big 12
7. Kansas State – 104.92%
2. Oklahoma – 102.24%
8. Baylor – 101.23%
9. TCU – 99.70%
4. Oklahoma State – 99.24%
3. Texas Tech – 94.79%
1. Texas – 94.64%
5. West Virginia – 92.65%
6. Iowa State – 89.29%
10. Kansas – 60.38%
Pac-12
6. Arizona – 112.89%
4. Oregon – 105.83%
8. Utah – 100.68%
7. Stanford – 96.02%
3. Washington – 93.70%
12. Washington State – 93.61%
11. Oregon State – 89.72%
5. Arizona State – 84.58%
10. Colorado – 83.41%
1. USC – 78.59%
2. UCLA – 74.02%
9. California – 73.32%
SEC
5. Georgia – 100.00%
1. Alabama – 99.72%
7. Auburn – 99.24%
8. South Carolina – 99.22%
6. Florida – 98.91%
3. LSU – 96.73%
2. Texas A&M – 96.68%
12. Mississippi State – 96.20%
4. Tennessee – 96.17%
10. Ole Miss – 95.24%
13. Kentucky – 94.57%
9. Arkansas – 91.18%
11. Missouri – 83.77%
14. Vanderbilt – 81.61%
I think this says more about how programs are doing than raw attendance numbers. It also can be impacted by recent stadium downsizing to better fit the interest level of the fan base, but I think that’s a good thing. Having half-empty stadiums is bad for everyone.
Over 90%:
SEC – 12/14
B12 – 8/10* (#9 is at 89%)
B10 – 8/14
P12 – 6/12
ACC – 5/14
This is a bad sign for the ACC and P12. This is why the P12 schedules tough OOC games and why the ACC should (going to 9 ACC games might help, too). The B10 isn’t too bad off since the 7 large stadiums are all over 90% and the lower group includes several teams that have been terrible lately (RU, UMD, IL, PU). I think it reflects correctly sized stadiums in the B12 as their total attendance is much lower than the B10’s.
Over 75%:
SEC – 14/14
B12 – 9/10
B10 – 12/14
P12 – 10/12 (others are at 74% and 73%)
ACC – 9/14
This is a really bad sign for the ACC. It’s part of why I wonder at the rosy projections for the ACCN. Will that many people pay up just for men’s hoops?
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The ACC has a higher percentage of private institutions, which tend to have smaller enrollments than their public counterparts. One reason the B1G was so appealing to Maryland administrators was that aside from Northwestern, all its full members are its peers — state, land-grant flagships. Not a Wake or BC in sight.
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Using percentage of capacity filled should mitigate their smaller enrollments.
The remaining issues for the ACC:
1. Lack of CFB interest in many fan bases (Duke, etc). They may only care about 1-2 games each year but still need a stadium of a certain size.
2. Private schools often disperse their graduates more widely than state schools, so its harder for alumni to attend games.
3. Few private schools draw large numbers of unaffiliated fans like state schools do. When they do, it’s because of incredible success (Duke hoops, USC football, etc).
4. CFB used to be more popular at some/many of the schools and the stadiums were built to hold those larger crowds.
5. Recent expansion added schools the fans don’t care about.
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The P12’s wide-ranging deal with AT&T (marketing rights to P12 events, telecom services for the conference and U-verse distribution for P12N) ends this summer. Despite AT&T buying DirecTV, the P12N never got carriage on there. So what happens now?
That left two options:
* The Pac-12 and AT&T double down on their partnership, with a DirecTV carriage agreement as the centerpiece.
* The parties end their relationship … and any chance of the Pac-12 Networks being shown on DirecTV for the foreseeable future.
A middle ground — a continuation of purgatory for the Pac-12 — wasn’t an option, based on comments by networks president Mark Shuken.
Shuken was asked in March about the looming expiration of the AT&T deal:
“The AT&T sponsorship works very well for both entities. The fact that DirecTV does not carry the networks does not work for us, and we’re not inclined to treat those as separate initiatives.
“We’re hopeful that DirecTV will choose to launch the networks the way everyone else carries the networks. But I would rather work with another wireless partner than an entity whose television partner doesn’t choose to carry the networks.”
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Seeking context, the Hotline has reached out to numerous contacts in recent months — contacts with knowledge of the conference’s business affairs — and the responses were unanimous:
No one expected the Pac-12 and AT&T to double down on their partnership with a new deal.
Everyone expected AT&T to walk.
“I guess you never know, but my assumption is that they’re each going their own way,’’ one source said.
Another source explained that the conference and AT&T have been destined for separation since Sept. ’15, the last time they seriously engaged in negotiations over DirecTV carriage.
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But on a psychological level, the permanence of the DirecTV separation would sting deeply — it would sting fans and officials throughout the conference, the pain resonating all the way up to the commissioner’s suite.
Losing U-verse distribution, meanwhile, would be a modest blow only. The service, which is being phased out by AT&T in favor of DirecTV and DirecTV Now, has approximately four million subscribers, with less than half residing inside the Pac-12 footprint.
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In fact, one could argue that half the schools in the Pac-12 might be better off financially were the conference to end its partnership with AT&T.
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Were the AT&T deal to disappear, the athletic departments could sell those wireless rights on the open market.
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“(The current deal) benefits the Washington States and Oregon States,” one source explained.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/07/94537/the-lost-world
B10 fans love tradition, but the old equation of B10 title equals Rose Bowl is dying. Nobody is as unsuccessful at converting B10 titles into Rose Bowls as OSU in the post-Woody era (also no more non-repeat rule). Some of it is bad luck and some of it is new postseason systems. All of it is a loss of tradition.
B10 titles (outright or shared) / Rose Bowl berths:
OSU – 16/4 (made it in 1979, 1984, 1996 and 2009 seasons)
MI – 13/11 (1980, 1982, 1986, 1988-89, 1991-92, 1997, 2003-04***, 2006**)
WI – 6/6 (1993, 1998-99, 2010***-12)
IA – 5/4 (1981, 1985, 1990, 2015)
MSU – 5/2 (1987, 2013)
PSU – 4/3 (1994, 2008, 2016)
IL – 3/2 (1983, 2007**)
NW – 3/1 (1995)
PU – 1/1 (2000)
NE – 0/0*
IN – 0/0
MN – 0/0
UMD – 0/0
RU – 0/0
Overall – 56/34 (61%)
* Had 1 before joining the B10 which is ignored here
** Didn’t win B10 title
*** Didn’t face the P12
Years no B10 team went – 2001, 2002, 2005, 2014, 2017
While other teams have also missed some Rose Bowls, I’ll detail OSU’s for the sheer diversity of reasons they happened.
Reasons OSU missed the Rose Bowl:
4 – Lost head-to-head tiebreaker (1986, 2005, 2008, 2010)
This tiebreaker is always a bit debatable. It is quite obvious on the surface, but it rewards losing to a worse team. I don’t believe it is statistically valid for finding the better team but it may find the more deserving team. In 2005 the BCS NCG was the Rose Bowl so even if OSU won the tiebreaker it still wouldn’t have gone.
3 – Had been there more recently than the other B10 team (1981, 1993, 1998)
This was always a silly rule, but it was tradition. Besides, head-to-head wouldn’t help because OSU and IA didn’t play in 1981, nor did OSU and WI in 1998, and OSU and WI tied in 1993. Chalk it up to bad luck and OSU’s history of success.
3 – Played in BCS NCG instead (2002, 2006, 2007)
Can’t complain about this other than the bowl system being better than any playoff system. I know OSU gained the 2002 title because of this, but it also may have cost OSU the 2006 title.
1 – BCS/CFP was playing in the Rose instead (2017)
It was a shame to watch B10 champ OSU face P12 champ USC in the Cotton Bowl Game which is not played in the Cotton Bowl anymore. That’s multiple layers of tradition lacking in one game.
1 – Played in CFP instead (2014)
The committee could have paired OSU and Oregon in the Rose to preserve tradition but insist that sticking to their subjective rankings is more important. That probably helped OSU win the title, though.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/07/25/mailbag-nonconference-scheduling-scott-frost-nick-saban
Andy Staples thinks that an expanded CFP would make everyone schedule harder. I think it would either have little effect (most teams schedule based on ticket sales and bowl eligibility, not CFP concerns) or would make for easier schedules unless the selection system changes. The problem in CFB has always been that W/L record is weighted more than anything else. SOS only counts for sorting within teams having the same number of losses. Right now everyone knows that they can’t lose 2 games. Expanding the CFP will keep the same mindset but with 3 losses.
Better schedules improve attendance which is the reason the P12 plays tougher schedules than anyone else and the SEC plays the easiest. The CFP doesn’t provide any SOS incentives.
From Dan: Nick Saban says better home schedules would improve attendance. Big Ten coaches want an expanded playoff. If conference champs got auto bids, would teams schedule tougher in the non-conference games since only conference titles would matter?
Nebraska coach Scott Frost voiced his support for an eight-team playoff this week. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh would like to go to eight and then to 16. (Ohio State fans may feel free to insert their own Big Ten East standings joke here.) And yes, Alabama coach Saban has advocated for a nine-game conference schedule in the SEC and non-conference games against only Power Five opponents.
If Frost or Harbaugh got his way, it likely would lead to tougher non-conference schedules across the board. An eight-team playoff would have wild card slots that would require excellent records, but it presumably would feature automatic bids for Power Five conference champs (or some Power Five leagues would never agree to the deal). A 16-team playoff would certainly feature automatic bids and would have so many open slots that a loss to a tough non-conference opponent probably wouldn’t keep a team out of the playoff.
I don’t foresee any change to the College Football Playoff in the near future, but if the same Power Five leagues keep getting left out, they’ll begin pushing for expansion. Eight teams would be the next logical step if schools could solve the following issues (which they pretend are impossible now but will very quickly figure out when it’s in their best interests to figure them out):
• The first round would have to take place either during final exams or the week of Christmas.
• It wouldn’t make sense to play the semifinals at bowls anymore. Holding the first two rounds at campus sites would make seeding matter, would be better on television and ease the travel burden for fans, but schools would have to cut out the people who have been greasing their leaders for decades. They’ll act like this is a huge issue even though it would actually improve the event.
• Teams would be forced to play more games, and the optics of that will be terrible if the schools don’t slide the players a little extra for the effort. Sometimes you’ve got to spend money to make money.
If all this could be negotiated, it would improve scheduling across the board. SEC teams play eight conference games—and shoehorn in FCS games in November before rivalry games—because that format helps SEC teams win national titles. The eight-game league schedule wouldn’t be so helpful in an eight-team playoff universe. The FCS-opponent-in-November thing would help and would continue, but September and early October would get much more interesting. A coach such as Saban, who can be reasonably confident his team will be in the mix for the conference title every year, would be more likely to load up early to challenge his team so it will be ready for the trials of the playoff. Saban’s former co-worker Tom Izzo loves to do this for the basketball team at Michigan State. Izzo wants his team toughened in December so it’s ready for March. Football programs such as Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Oklahoma and Wisconsin might add one or two more tough non-conference games because the more challenging schedule would sell tickets that people actually would use and wouldn’t hurt their long-term goals.
Schools are coming to the realization that they need to offer more interesting season-ticket packages to compete with the 70-inch television, but they aren’t going to spice up their schedules at the expense of a shot at the national title. If it won’t cost them a chance at a title, then they’ll be more willing to schedule more non-conference games that we actually want to watch.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/media/2018/07/27/disney-gets-ok-acquire-fox-movie-and-tv-studios-and-stake-hulu/841721002/
Disney’s shareholders have approved the $70.4B offer to buy Fox’s studio assets. Comcast getting involved forced Disney to raise their bid by $18B from their original offer.
The U.S. Department of Justice has approved the deal and other international regulatory approvals should be forthcoming, provided there’s no unforeseen pushback.
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Fox will keep the Fox network, Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network, as well as sports networks FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network, and its 28 local TV stations. The media company has said it plans to launch a Fox nation subscription streaming service in the fourth quarter.
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Brian,
Do you think with Fox’s stake in the BTN they could leverage their other assets to get Comcast and other cable providers to reconsider dropping the BTN?
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I’m not sure why Comcast is doing this. Is Comcast angry about Fox selling assets to Disney? I don’t see a sound business reason behind their actions other than using threats as a negotiating ploy to pay lower carriage rates. Is Fox willing to risk all their networks to protect BTN? I don’t know because we don’t know how profitable BTN is and projects to be. Certainly Fox could leverage carriage from most carriers but Comcast is big enough to fight back. How many people would drop Comcast if they lost Fox News or other Fox-owned stations?
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Losing Fox News would be a major hit to Comcast. Lots of people would shift to Verizon FIOS in NJ and to Spectrum in NYC.
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I’m sure there would be a lot, I just have no way to estimate the number. I assume that would be the channel that gives Fox the most leverage since an antenna can grab broadcast TV for many people. The question is how the bean counters have analyzed the numbers. How many losses are acceptable versus a certain price for various Fox channels?
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I don’t see a sound business reason behind their actions other than using threats as a negotiating ploy to pay lower carriage rates.
IMHO – this is why. This same old song and dance is done every time the contract is up.
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Fox News & Fox Business News are ratings leaders. So I would think the would carry a lot of weight in negotiations. I used the two links as proof sources.
http://thehill.com/homenews/media/381599-fox-business-tops-total-viewers-category-in-business-news-for-first-quarter-of
https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/february-2018-ratings-fox-news-marks-194-consecutive-months-as-the-most-watched-cable-news-network/358292
Now would they do it for the BTN. Well last fall Altice USA 4th largest cable provider pushed back against ESPN fees. Disney threatened to pull all their channels.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-walt-disney-altice-usa-cable/walt-disney-threatens-to-pull-espn-abc-from-optimum-idUSKCN1C001V
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I think the key is to figure out how many people care enough about the network to switch providers.
Average viewers during business hours:
FBN – 246k
CNBC topped FBN in the 25-54 demographic, though. How many people would really drop Comcast over FBN?
Average viewers in weeknight primetime / all day:
FNC – 2.77M / 1.55M
By far the best for news channels. But that’s a national number. The B10 footprint is roughly 25% of the US, so that drops potential losses to 700k. And Comcast only has a portion of all the cable households. They miss large parts of the B10 footprint (only PA, IN, IL and MI have wide Comcast availability plus it’s in MSP). Maybe Comcast gets 1/3 of the footprint, so I’ll round off to 10% (0.25 * 0.33 = 0.08) of the national audience to be lazy. That gets you down to 280k. But of the number that watch, how many are fervent enough to change providers over it? 5% (14k)? 10% (28k)?
How many might leave over BTN? Also a small number but sports fans can be very avid.
Now let’s talk money. FNC costs about the same as FS1 and close to BTN in the footprint, a little over $1/month. For context, ESPN is now over $9 apparently. That’s maybe double all of Fox’s channels combined. So Fox has maybe $70k – $140k per month on the line, with 10% of that being BTN (since they only half own it).
ESPN costs over $9 and is wholly owned by Disney. That’s much more important.
That said, I’m sure Fox will fight hard. I just don’t know how long they would stick to their guns.
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-wrigley-field-bowl-game-off-20180726-story.html
The Chicago bowl game is off the table, at least for now. Apparently the Cubs were surprised that good teams would rather go to FL or CA in winter than Chicago.
The breakdown in negotiations occurred because Cubs officials wanted a premier spot in the Big Ten bowl lineup — the ability to land the conference’s No. 3 or No. 4 team. When Big Ten officials queried schools, they responded that they would prefer a warm-weather destination.
The Cubs had the finances arranged for a bowl game at Wrigley but declined to make a deal for a lower-slotted Big Ten team. The sides amicably parted ways and said they might revisit a potential game.
“The Cubs wanted to have a higher-placed team and a potentially more excited fan base,” a source said. “The Cubs said they’re not looking for a lower-tier bowl game; they’re very selective in what they do.”
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https://collegefootballnews.com/2018/07/daily-five-5-potentially-stupid-big-ten-preseason-predictions
Five potentially stupid B10 predictions for 2018 (read the article for details):
5. Maryland will actually have a healthy quarterback for more than a few games … and it’ll make a huge difference
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4. The Penn State running game will be better
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3. At least half of the Big Ten starting quarterbacks will (eventually) be drafted
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2. Michigan will actually beat Michigan State or Ohio State
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1. Wisconsin will finally get into the College Football Playoff
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https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article172064837.html
A story about a medical device that might help prevent concussions.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/07/94723/ohio-state-to-pay-32-million-to-oregon-state-and-tulane-receive-5-million-for-tcu-game-in-2018
A look at what OSU paid or will pay for OOC games from 2015-2022. It looks like $1.8M is the rate for a MAC team in the future (2020-22). At that rate, you might as well pay for a bad P5 team that would sell a few more tickets and draw more attention. OrSU is getting $1.7M this year while Tulane gets $1.5M. Surely a P5 team is worth the extra $200k in ticket sales, donations, merchandise and coverage.
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My Greenies are worth every bit of $1.5M.
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The P12 is in negotiations with AT&T about extending their deal but getting the P12N on DirecTV is not part of the discussions.
“We’ve isolated the conversation to one of continuing the current terms with U-verse alone,” he said, “instead of continuing the conversation about DirecTV.”
…
Under the terms of the current partnership, AT&T owns sponsorship and wireless rights to Pac-12 events, and the conference receives telecom services and carriage on U-verse.
U-verse has approximately four million subscribers, only a portion of which are within the Pac-12 footprint.
Shuken said he hopes for a resolution “in days, not weeks.”
…
Shuken declined to comment specifically on the Big Ten situation but indicated the Pac-12 Networks, which have approximately 20 million subscribers, aren’t in danger of losing carriage in the near term (beyond U-verse).
“We’re fortunate to have distribution deals secure through 2024, including with Comcast,” he said.
All of the Pac-12’s major media contracts — from the networks’ deals with Comcast, Dish and Cox to the conference’s Tier 1 agreements with ESPN and Fox — expire at the conclusion of the 2023-24 sports cycle.
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Larry Scott Q&A on a variety of issues.
On the Pac-12 Networks:
Given the potential interest of Amazon, Google, etc., in acquiring sports rights and the conference’s 100 percent ownership of the networks, Scott “couldn’t be more delighted” with the strategic position.
On international initiatives:
The conference is considering more football games in Asia and Australia, with a particular interest in countries that have established support for the NFL.
…
On the potential for the conference/schools to seek an integrity fee (i.e., cut of the [gambling] handle within a particular state/footprint):
“That’s not our focus at the moment, and I don’t think that should be the primary focus of our universities. More important than what’s happening to the proceeds (is) what entities are being set up to monitor … and give red flags if there’s anything a league or school should be concerned about.”
…
On staying competitive with Power Five peers despite an expected gap in conference revenues for years going forward:
“We’re incredibly competitive. We had more than twice the NCAA championships of any other conference (in 2017-18). We’ve had teams in the College Football Playoff and the Final Four …
“Obviously, money is not the only contributor to success. Our conference has never had as much money going back the past 20 or 30 years. Our conference has other advantages that allow us to achieve success well beyond money. I’m confident our schools have the resources they need to win championships.
Our schools have invested $1.5 billion in the last decade in capital improvements. Every school has upgraded its football facilities. There’s no example I can point to in football or basketball that our schools have not been able to invest how they want to.”
He added:
“The conference is not the most important source of revenue for the schools. I always find it somewhat incomplete when I hear someone asking a question about conference revenue.
“The resources the individual schools have … have more to do with their ability to sell tickets and generate revenue (from football).
“Money is important, but it’s certainly not the most important ingredient to success.”
He’s certainly correct that the P12 has lagged for a while.
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Scott is correct that money is not the most important ingredient to success, but his job is to maximize money sources for the conference. 100% equity may turn out to have been the right call. But, whatever contract terms he agreed to with Comcast and/or Dish Network that have prevented PAC-12 Networks from being included on any streaming services outside of Sling TV is pure negligence.
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I thought the issue was simply that the P12 agreed to most favored nation clauses so all new carriers have to pay just as much as the existing ones or the P12 has to lower the cost for the current carriers to match the new ones. For example, DirecTV has demanded a lower fee to carry P12N and the only way the P12 can do that is to make everyone pay the new lower rate. That leads to more exposure but no increase in money and perhaps even less money.
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The Zack Smith scandal just re-exploded a couple of hours ago. Urban Meyer will be out as head coach of the Buckeyes by the end of this week.
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We’ll see. The ex-wife talked to Brett McMurphy. That’s the very definition of getting a biased view. And all she’s saying is that Meyer knew about her allegations against Smith in 2015 despite what he said at media days. If he knew, did the AD know? After all, shouldn’t it be the AD responsible for HR decisions like that? Firing without clear cause leads to lawsuits.
Meyer isn’t accused of breaking any rules or laws. Does OSU fire him over this?
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A quick read of what’s out there so far is the ex-wife texting Meyer’s wife and another person’s wife. The other person’s wife implied Meyer heard about the ex-wife’s allegations (second hand, obviously) while also hearing Smith’s denial directly. There’s a video interview of Smith’s ex-wife saying she never told Meyer’s wife or any other coach’s wife until 2015, but she never says the Meyer’s wife ever said she had directly told Meyer about the allegations.
More details would need to come out for Meyer to get fired I think.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/5-biggest-questions-relating-feds-ongoing-hoops-cases-014819393.html
An update on the investigation into college basketball.
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tOSU is as bad as the worst SEC school. The school’s list of football head coaches reads like a Who’s Who of despicable characters – Brown, Hayes, Bruce, Tressel, and now Meyer. Of course Meyer was known by all to be despicable before he was hired – possibly unlike the others. Bottom-line, I expect the lying sack of shit to remain at tOSU.
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Urban Meyer placed on administrative leave. http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24258253/ohio-state-buckeyes-places-urban-meyer-administrative-leave
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Wow! Careful, considered, fair and balanced commentary! Way to go!
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Follow-up on Urban Meyer’s quandary per a commentator on a Pac-12 football blog:
“If Urban admits to knowledge of the incident, then he effectively lied about it in his press conference last week and would be immediately fired. If he claims his wife never informed him of such allegations, his wife is guilty of violating Title IX, which is a federal offense.”
The wife potential culpability exists because Shelley Meyer is an RN and Instructor at tOSU’s College of Nursing.
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Nurses are bound by a confidentiality agreement same as doctors.
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http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/24256421/new-jersey-join-nevada-mobile-sports-betting
NJ is about to join NV as the only states to offer mobile sports betting. I think going mobile could have a major impact on sports gambling nationally, so this is a development to watch.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
The preseason coaches poll is out.
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. OSU
4. UGA
5. OU
6. UW
7. WI
8. Miami
9. PSU
10. AU
11. ND – plays MI, NW
12. MSU
14. MI
16. TCU – plays OSU
21. UT – plays UMD
By conference:
ACC – 2, 8, 17, 19
B10 – 3, 7, 9, 12, 14
B12 – 5, 16, 20, 21, 25
P12 – 6, 13, 15
SEC – 1, 4, 10, 18, 24
Other – 11, 22, 23
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https://www.sporttechie.com/apple-content-plans-could-hint-at-a-move-into-sports-streaming/
Apple may be looking to move into streaming live sports.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/
Completely off topic but I found it interesting. This is a visualization of how land in the US is used.
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https://www.magnifymoney.com/blog/news/the-happiest-states-in-the-u-s/
Happiness in the US seems to have a geographic component.
Top 10:
1. MN
2. SD
3. CO
4. UT
5. ND
6. WI
7. NE
8. IA
9. NH
10. MT
Bottom 10:
41. GA
42. NV
43. TN
44. AR
45. KY
46. MS
47. AL
48. WV
49. RI
50. LA
So why do people keep moving to the south if the residents are so unhappy?
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People move to the South because, besides the lack of harsh winters, the cost of living is lower. If you have relatively more money than the people around you, almost any place is a nice place to live.
But for the people who already live in the South, a lot of them are in poverty. If you are living in poverty, life is hard, and I’m sure that affects their happiness.
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Also, the Northerners bring their culture with them and set up Northern colonies in the South.
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It would be informative to see a demographic breakdown of their results.
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Oops. I wasn’t done yet.
Stephen,
I was mostly kidding since generally people are following a job or retiring to somewhere warmer.
“People move to the South because, besides the lack of harsh winters, the cost of living is lower.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/most-and-least-expensive-places-in-america-regional-price-parity-map-2017-7
The midwest and great plains are well below average for American COL and only slightly more expensive than the south. That link has a handy map. Much of the midwest is in the 85-90% of national average range while the south is 80-85%. Shouldn’t happiness trump a slight increase in COL?
“If you have relatively more money than the people around you, almost any place is a nice place to live.”
That’s not really true IMO. There are swathes of any region that suck no matter how much money you have. Poor parts of the south, much like in Appalachia, can be hideous. At least Appalachia has scenery.
“But for the people who already live in the South, a lot of them are in poverty. If you are living in poverty, life is hard, and I’m sure that affects their happiness.”
A large part is the heat which reduces outdoor activity leading to poor health, especially when combined with the traditional southern diet. The poor don’t have AC to deal with the heat and humidity down here.
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You asked a question and I was just throwing out a possibility. Obviously, I don’t know every person’s reason for moving to the South.
I will say that the cost of living being low in the Midwest is probably affected by the large amount of poor, rural areas in the Midwest, but most of the people I know who are moving South are leaving urban or suburban areas where the incomes and cost of living is higher.
There are probably a lot more people from the Chicago area moving to Georgia than from downstate Illinois, for instance.
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I’m always skeptical of these lists. So I wouldn’t read too much into it.
Here’s an example they used prosperity. Prosperous people aren’t necessarily happy and poor can be very happy.
No. 1 in lifestyle & prosperity: Utah. Utah was top in both lifestyle and prosperity in our analysis. In the lifestyle category, Utah had the third lowest divorce rate and ranked first in volunteering (43.20%), beating out Minnesota by nearly 10 basis points. In prosperity, the state ranked tenth overall in homeownership (71.87%) and had the fifth lowest unemployment rate at 4%.
However, the state ranked ranked among the bottom 10 states in depression, suicide rate and air quality. It ranked 48th, 46th and 47th in each factor, respectively, bringing its ranking in the health category down to 21st overall and thwarting its shot at No. 1.
If lifestyle and prosperity are so great why are so many people in Utah depressed and killing themselves?
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Be4cause they live in Utah so it’s hard to get a drink like normal depressed people?
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Brian,
Haha good one. Reminds me of one of those studies that declared Iceland the happiest country. Several year later a study on public drunkenness found the #1 country to be Iceland.
The conclusion, You can live in Utah and be sober and depressed or you can life in Iceland and be drunk and happy. LMAO
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https://thecomeback.com/ncaa/big-ten-east-nonconference-schedule-grades-2.html
and
https://thecomeback.com/ncaa/big-ten-west-nonconference-schedule-grades-2.html
A blogger grades every B10 OOC game as well as giving each team an overall grade for their OOC slate. He’s working through every P5 conference in alphabetical order, so he’s already done the ACC and B12.
East
IN: A-
UMD: A
MI: A-
MSU: B+
OSU: A-
PSU: A
RU: B+
West
IL: B+
IA: A
MN: D-
NE: A-
NW: A+
PU: A+
WI: C
You’ll note that only one of the preseason ranked teams got below a B+ and that was WI with a C.
About MN:
This is, quite possibly, the worst schedule in all of P5. We’ll have to see if anyone from the Pac 12 or SEC can outdo it, but so far this hits rock bottom. If P.J. Fleck can’t make a bowl for a second straight year with this schedule, people will start to wonder whether he is the right fit for this team.
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Urban Meyer position: I handled situation with Zach Smith properly, but I lied to the media. What now? http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24277713/urban-meyer-says-failed-media-day-dealing-zach-smith
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If this is true, he should be fine. After reporting it to the AD, it’s up to his bosses to make the decisions. Coaches lie to the media on every day that ends with y, so you can’t fire him for that.
Note that Gene Smith hasn’t said a word since day one about this issue.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/08/05/purdue-dumps-papa-johns-founder-after-ethnic-slur/909859002/
Purdue is offering “Papa” John Schnatter back the $8M he donated in April and pulling his name off of the economic research center at their school of management.
Purdue University will strip John Schnatter’s name from an economic research center at the Krannert School of Management and will offer to return the $8 million the founder of the Papa John’s pizza chain gave the West Lafayette campus in April after racially charged comments he made.
Purdue’s trustees on Friday morning, in their first meeting since Schnatter’s use of the N-word and other comments about race relations became public via a July 11 report in Forbes magazine, voted to disassociate the university from him.
Ahead of the vote, Mike Berghoff, trustees chairman, said the university had put a lot of time into deciding to add Schnatter’s name to the four-year-old Center for Economic Research at Purdue. He said the university felt a responsibility to put time into a decision about whether to remove Schnatter’s name. Berghoff read the following statement ahead of the trustees’ vote:
“The Purdue Board of Trustees has decided that the name of the university’s economics center, named in April 2018 the John H. Schnatter Center for Economic Research at Purdue, should revert to the Purdue University Research Center in Economics. Purdue will offer to return the funds associated with the naming.
“The board believes this action is necessary to avoid distraction from the center’s work, counterproductive division on the campus, and any inference of any deviation from the university’s often stated stance on tolerance and racial relations.”
By Friday afternoon, Schnatter’s name had been removed from the Center of Economic Research at Purdue’s web page.
Apparently this donation was part of $18M PU raised to beef up hiring at the management school. Only $1M of the $8M has been received so far.
Meanwhile Ball State (Schnatter’s alma mater) is sticking by him. They probably can’t afford not to since he donated over $3M to BSU.
Since July 11, two of four university business research centers carrying the Papa John’s founder’s name — the John H. Schnatter Center for Free Enterprise at the University of Louisville, and the John H. Schnatter Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise at the University of Kentucky — already had stripped Schnatter from the letterhead.
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There have been some interesting developments in the story at OSU, so I’ll try to summarize them here with a minimum of bias.
1. https://www.reddit.com/r/OhioStateFootball/comments/94t19c/crosspost_from_rcfb_a_lawyers_deep_dive_into/
An Ohio lawyer on Reddit has been paying close attention and has noticed that Brett McMurpohy has been correcting his Facebook post that kickstarted this whole thing without mentioning the corrections. The lawyer is probably an OSU fan, but he has screenshots to support his statements and images of the police reports. He also is continuously adding to his post as new things come up. He seems to do a pretty good job of sticking to the facts and doesn’t get into the behavior of Zach Smith or Urban Meyer.
All bold is his.
Here’s the introduction of his post:
This is long, so here is the lede: Brett McMurphy’s pre-B1G media day reports contained inaccurate allegations of an arrest. He has quietly backtracked on those stories via Facebook edits (rather than the usual journalistic correction/redaction) after Meyer’s press conference at B1G media day. In sum, he has gone from “arrested on felony counts of domestic violence” to “arrested” to “investigated and arrested” to “investigated” to “allegations” — all without issuing any correction (let alone a correction in accordance with industry standards) until 07/30/2018 — or six days after Meyer’s press conference.
McMurphy then stated that he had two police reports — an old report from 2015 indicating an arrest, and a new one released in 2018 not indicating an arrest. I have obtained portions of two reports, and neither indicates an arrest, but McMurphy could, theoretically, have a third report.
Note: This is not a defense of Meyer. This is not about whether Meyer followed proper protocol, why he should or should not keep his job, what he knew or did not know, etc. This is not a defense of Zach Smith, nor does it have anything to do with Courtney Smith. This is about breach of journalistic protocol. I do not believe Brett McMurphy has any malice toward Meyer/OSU, but I can’t for the life of me understand his lack of providing retractions/corrections in accordance with industry standards.
2. https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/08/95015/powell-police-chief-explains-changes-in-offense-reports-says-zach-smith-was-never-arrested-in-2015
As mentioned in that Reddit post, the Powell, OH police chief has stated that Zach Smith was not arrested in 2015.
Eleven Warriors obtained two offense reports from Powell Police regarding the incident – one from 2015 and the one that was also sent to McMurphy on July 24 – neither of which indicated that Zach was arrested. It’s possible, but not confirmed, that McMurphy could have received a different version of the report than the initial report that Eleven Warriors and the anonymous Reddit poster received. In an interview with Eleven Warriors on Monday, Powell Chief of Police Gary Vest did not confirm whether there were any other versions of the report – saying that all records kept by Powell Police have been maintained for court records, but that the offense report released on July 24 was the only report being released by Powell Police at this time – but did say that any indication that Zach was arrested that came from his department was a result of human error.
“He was never arrested, never handcuffed, never brought in and never charged in a court of law here in 2015,” said Vest, who declined to directly identify Zach as the redacted suspect in the offense reports. “There were never any charges filed in the court process. So the word ‘arrest’ was simply checked on a box that shouldn’t have been checked.”
This article also has links to 2 full police reports on the incident, one from 2015 and an updated one from 2018 (with the upgraded charges). Neither report indicates an arrest, so one wonders how McMurphy reported an arrest.
3. http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24295426/osu-says-urban-meyer-investigation-expected-completed-14-days
OSU has started an independent investigation directed by a group of 6 people (3 Trustees and 3 other prominent people). They expect to complete the investigation in 14 days.
Per the school’s release, the special, independent working group formed to direct the investigation met late in the week, appointed a chair and engaged an investigative firm. Former Ohio House Speaker Jo Ann Davidson was picked to serve as chair of the group, which is composed of three current members of the board of trustees, Alex Fischer, Janet Porter and Alex Shumate. Former acting U.S. Deputy Attorney General Craig Morford and former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Ohio Carter Stewart also are part of the group.
Former chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Mary Jo White will lead the investigative team. White is a senior chair with the national law firm Debevoise & Plimpton and is a former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York. White has worked on several cases for the NFL, most recently leading the investigation into accusations of workplace misconduct by Panthers owner Jerry Richardson.
“Ohio State is committed to a thorough and complete investigation,” Davidson said in the statement. “We look forward to sharing the results of this investigation and any action the university may take.”
According to the release, the group will be available to provide consultation and advice and will assist with communication to the full board on matters concerning the investigation. Decisions about actions, based on the findings of the investigation, will be made by Ohio State president Michael V. Drake in consultation with the board of trustees.
4. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/08/05/ohio-state-gene-smith-keeps-quiet-amid-scandal/911132002/
At least one national media member noticed that Gene Smith has been silent about this.
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OSU President Drake is aggressively pursuing the Meyer case and two other sexual abuse cases, one dating back over 20 years. (The suspect is dead.) Everyone is looking at MSU’s half billion dollar settlement, and is desperate to avoid a cost like that. Fat chance. tOSU will come in at at least $200 M.
It is almost certain that every D I school has a scandal like this simmering away, just waiting for someone to trigger it. D I as a whole might be looking at $10 B to $20 B (as in billion) in penalties and settlements. Responsible Trustees will wonder why their schools participate in intercollegiate athletics if financial ruin is the reward. Let the AAU deal with amateur sports.
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It is a domestic abuse allegation made by one woman. Why would that involve hundreds of millions of dollars? I don’t know the details of the situation, but why would OSU be liable to the spouse unless the school somehow enabled the actions of Smith? For a domestic abuse case, it does not seem likely that the employer would have liability. They might still give her a couple of million to end the bad publicity, but not due to legal liability.
The MSU case involved faculty and the use of MSU facilities to abuse 332 gymnasts. This is not even close to the OSU mess.
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Jersey Bernie, I think the poster was referring to the Wrestling coach scandal as opposed to the Domestic Abuse.
It would seem to me that an employer would not be held responsible for the acts of employees not related to their employment.
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bob sykes,
“It is almost certain that every D I school has a scandal like this simmering away, just waiting for someone to trigger it.”
I doubt that. Things may have happened at every school, but I’d guess that few rise to the level of Nassar or Strauss. Especially in terms of having a chance to come public now. Abusers from before the 60s or 70s are unlikely to ever be exposed at this point.
“D I as a whole might be looking at $10 B to $20 B (as in billion) in penalties and settlements.”
I don’t think there’s any way to estimate that reasonably. There is no evidence for any other similar cases at this point, although there will surely be at least one in the future. Bad people are everywhere.
“Responsible Trustees will wonder why their schools participate in intercollegiate athletics if financial ruin is the reward. Let the AAU deal with amateur sports.”
Nassar was faculty in MSU’s medical school. He started his abuse outside of MSU, did much/most of it outside of MSU, and did it to non-athletes. Even without varsity sports at MSU he would’ve been a problem for MSU. Strauss was on OSU’s faculty and worked at the medical center as well as the student health center. I’m only aware of alleged abuse of athletes but I’m guessing he did similar things to regular patients but they didn’t see him often enough to know the rectal exams were unnecessary.
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http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-usc-transition-20180807-story.html
Here’s a good example. USC’s president just stepped down because a campus gynecologist is accused of sexually abusing patients. Maybe schools should drop their medical schools instead of sports.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/north-carolina-suspends-13-football-players-for-selling-team-issued-shoes/
UNC has to suspend 13 players for selling their team-issued shoes.
Offensive linemen Brian Anderson, Quiron Johnson and Jordan Tucker; defensive ends Malik Carney, Tomon Fox and Tyrone Hopper; linebacker Malik Robinson; quarterback Chazz Surratt; and wide receiver Beau Corrales will each sit out four games.
Defensive backs Greg Ross and Tre Shaw will miss two games, and both quarterback Jack Davidson and offensive lineman Jonah Melton will miss one game.
The suspensions will be staggered.
Carney will miss games against East Carolina, UCF, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Fox will sit against Miami, Syracuse, Virginia and Georgia Tech. Everybody else will miss season opener at Cal on Sept. 1. Since many of the players play the same position, the staggered suspensions have been approved by the NCAA.
I’m surprised the suspensions are so short. OSU’s players all got 5 games for trading stuff for tattoos just a few years ago. Coming so soon after previous scandals, you’d think UNC might get extra punishment as a repeat offender but apparently not.
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This reminds me of the Wisconsin probation for getting sneakers at discount prices, http://www.espn.com/gen/news/2001/1002/1258244.html
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https://collegefootball.ap.org/article/slow-down-fast-football-craze-shows-signs-fading
After a few years of hyperspeed football being the fad, CFB is starting to slow down now that defenses and the rules have adjusted. That’s a good thing IMO.
Last season scoring was down in college football, a drop of about a point and a half per game per team to 28.8, and the lowest mark since 2011 (28.3). But a deeper look into the numbers shows that defensive coordinators don’t have much to celebrate. Offenses are still performing at a high level. They were, generally, just operating more slowly in 2017. And there is reason to believe this is the new normal as the allure of playing fast dissipates.
“I think that what’s happened is you have a group of us that are playing ultra-fast and some people that tried to get into it that really don’t understand it, they’re playing slower,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said this spring.
FBS teams averaged 69.9 plays per game in 2017, down from 71.6 the season before and the fewest since 2011. Eighty-three of 129 FBS teams last season ran fewer plays per game than in 2016. Seven teams averaged at least 80 plays per game last year, half as many as in 2016 and the fewest since 2011. There were 31 teams that ran fewer plays per game last season than in 2016, but saw their average time of possession increase.
Championship Analytics Inc., a company that provides dozens of FBS schools a weekly advanced metrics breakdown of their upcoming game, uses drives per game to measure pace. Responding to a request from The Associated Press, CAI’s research showed drives per game have been decreasing in FBS for the last three seasons. In 2014, FBS games averaged 25.12 drives per game. Last season that dropped to 24.39. Points per drive, however, have remained relatively steady. In 2014, teams averaged 2.21 points per drive. Last season, it was 2.23.
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http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/what-should-ncaa-do-with-summer-recruiting-college-basketball-aau-experts-weigh-in/fhpsscrpl0fr1uzx7q8aa2gwn
What coaches and recruiters suggest the NCAA change about summer recruiting in hoops. The NCAA is supposed to release new rules soon to address this in response to the Rice Commission’s report.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/24320401/ncaa-announces-new-college-basketball-policy-including-agents-players-longer-postseason-bans
And here are the NCAA’s changes.
Among the significant changes that were adopted by the NCAA’s Board of Governors and Division I Board of Directors are allowing elite high school basketball recruits and players to be represented by agents who are certified by the NCAA while still playing; allowing players to enter the NBA draft and return to school if undrafted; introducing more rigorous certification requirements for summer basketball-related events; and longer postseason bans, head coach suspensions and increased recruiting restrictions for college coaches who break the rules.
Significantly, the NCAA is overhauling its process for investigating and adjudicating complex cases involving its rules. Two independent groups will be appointed to oversee and resolve complex cases, which might involve academic misconduct, major penalties or adversarial behavior.
The first independent group will include both external investigators with no school or conference affiliation and select NCAA enforcement staff. A second group, which will be comprised of 15 people with backgrounds in law, higher education and sports with no affiliations to NCAA schools or conferences, will review the findings of the first group, oversee the hearing and decide penalties, if necessary.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24324859/ncaa-new-proposed-rules-blindside-nba-usa-basketball-officials
And the NBA and USAB aren’t thrilled with the changes.
The NCAA launched a commission and set of subcommittees to address the fallout from the FBI investigation into the college basketball industry, resulting in several policy shifts, including the assigning of responsibility to USA Basketball for something the organization had already told the NCAA it wanted no part: bearing responsibility for selecting elite senior high school prospects who will be allowed to sign with registered agents.
USA Basketball doesn’t have the infrastructure or interest in accepting the role of evaluating the nation’s top prospects for a yet-to-be-determined number of players who will annually be allowed to sign with agents at the end of their junior years, sources told ESPN.
USA Basketball prefers that the NBA make those decisions, sources said. The NBA already oversees the invitation process to the Chicago pre-draft combine and Portsmouth Invitational camps every spring. The NBA will be immersed in scouting the high school ranks once those players have an earlier target date of entering the draft, and if the NCAA wants to allow a select number of high school players the opportunity to sign with agents, the belief is that NBA front offices would be most informed to cull a list.
The NBA, USA Basketball and NCAA did meet and discuss these prospective changes, but the NBA and USA Basketball never believed they had come to a consensus with the NCAA on how they would move forward together on the issues, sources said.
…
Kentucky coach John Calipari, talking about the NCAA rule changes on SportsCenter, said, “None of this goes into effect until the NBA and the players’ association come up with something, and I’m hearing it won’t be until 2022 so we’re probably wasting our breath dealing with the ins and outs of this.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa-got-right-wrong-attempt-reform-college-basketball-193053617.html
A columnist analyzes what the NCAA got right (very little in his opinion) and what they got wrong (a lot) with their new rules.
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The P12N is pivoting towards more football and basketball coverage and less of the Olympic sports. The article details some of the specific changes to look for.
In 2018, however, we’ll see the beginnings of a revamped approach fueled by the campuses themselves and implemented by a new management team.
“The universities and the athletic directors have told us they want to emphasize football,” networks president Mark Shuken told the Hotline.
“We want to give the people what they want, when they want it, and interest is clearly driven by football. We just had to plan how to do it.”
Shuken has only been on the job for 11 months — he joined too late to set the programming course for the 2017 football season — while Larry Meyers, the networks’ Executive Vice President for Content, came aboard only this spring.
At the root of their tactical shift is an emphasis on football content that’s designed to satisfy fans now and benefit the Pac-12 over the longer haul.
Shuken, Meyers and the athletic directors seem to grasp a relationship that had been lost in the fog on 3rd Street:
The wholly-owned networks are a marketing tool for the conference; football is the prime driver of campus revenue and fan engagement; and the next media contracts will be based, to a large extent, on the perceived levels of fan engagement.
The networks should be all about football — about marketing the product and deepening the connection — whenever the opportunities arise.
Except for six years, they weren’t.
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https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mac-engel/article216240185.html
The Fort Worth Star-Telegram is reporting that Baylor is considering a self-imposed bowl ban although the school denies it. BU was hoping for a result like UNC got, where the NCAA decides the issues were school-wide and not specific to the athletic department, but apparently that now seems unlikely.
According to multiple sources, the NCAA’s multi-year investigation into the Baylor athletic department has taken a “left turn” to the point that school officials are being advised to self-impose sanctions.
Sources said the law firm representing Baylor in its investigation with the NCAA has recommended to school officials that it impose a one-year bowl ban for the 2018 season.
The “Lack of Institutional Control” infraction, which is so vague it can cover virtually any scenario, is the likely potential NCAA violation.
Sources said the NCAA has recently interviewed former Baylor football coach Art Briles, former Baylor president Ken Starr and former Baylor athletic director Ian McCaw; those interviews could have changed the NCAA’s direction on this case.
Baylor athletic department officials are not permitted to publicly comment on the investigation until its completion, which should be within the next 60 days.
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/08/06/Colleges/ACC-Network-main-story.aspx
The ACC schools are spending $120M on production facilities, infrastructure and staff to prepare for the ACCN coming next year. Obviously they’re betting on getting a windfall in return. For context, the SEC schools spent a quarter of that on SECN prep in 2014.
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I remain skeptical about the ACCN, since ACC members tend to have smaller enrollments than their B1G and SEC brethren, and several are private institutions whose fanbases often aren’t as large (I’m looking at you, Wake Forest and Boston College).
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24310810/introducing-college-football-playoff-predictor-which-likes-clemson-better-alabama
ESPN Analytics’ CFP Predictor for 2018 is out.
This isn’t just based on the whims of a few football fiends in Bristol; the model is derived from the committee’s past behavior in its rankings (both in-season and on selection day) throughout the first four years of the playoff system. And through study of the committee, ESPN Analytics identified five key factors that determine each team’s chance to reach the playoff.
* Strength of Record (how much teams have accomplished)
* FPI (how good teams are)
* Number of losses (incorporated into SOR but the committee places even more emphasis on losses)
* Conference championships
* Independent status (Notre Dame can’t be a conference champion, but all else being equal it might get more credit than a team that didn’t win its conference championship) — despite the committee claiming it wants the four best teams.
That’s why Strength of Record is the most important factor. Fifteen of the 16 playoff teams in the past four years have ranked in the top four of Strength of Record on selection day.
Every team with at least a 1% chance to win the title according to them
(Team – CFP odds, title odds):
Clemson Tigers – 67%, 24%
Alabama Crimson Tide – 47%, 14%
Georgia Bulldogs – 46%, 13%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish – 42%, 10%
Washington Huskies – 41%, 11%
Ohio State Buckeyes – 37%, 9%
Oklahoma Sooners – 24%, 5%
Auburn Tigers – 17%, 3%
Penn State Nittany Lions – 16%, 3%
Michigan State Spartans – 15%, 3%
Wisconsin Badgers – 11%, 2%
Michigan Wolverines – 8%, 1%
Only 8 other teams are listed with any chance at even making the CFP.
Conference CFP chances (1+ teams, 2+ teams):
SEC – 87%, 26%
B10 – 75%, 13%
ACC – 73%, 3%
P12 – 49%, 2%
B12 – 29%, <1%
Conference national title chances:
SEC – 31%
ACC – 25%
B10 – 17%
P12 – 12%
ND – 10%
B12 – 5%
Highest impact games:
OSU vs MSU, PSU and MI
Auburn vs UW, UGA and AL
Other game of note: ND vs MI week 1
If ND wins, their CFP odds jump to 53%. If they lose, their odds drop to 23%. ND needs to go 11-1 to make the CFP and their schedule is challenging but not too hard.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/08/09/preseason-scouting-reports-clemson-alabama-michigan-oklahoma
Anonymous analysis by opposing coaches of SI’s top 20 teams (listed alphabetically).
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Some scheduling news/analysis:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/08/09/south-dakota-wisconsin-to-meet-on-gridiron-in-2024/37375437/
WI has scheduled I-AA South Dakota for 2024. That’s allowed because it’s a year when WI has 5 road B10 games, but it’s still BS. WI is better than that. That sort of scheduling will keep them out of the CFP.
http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/florida-state-lsu-new-orleans-orlando-neutral-site-series/
FSU and LSU have agreed to a New Orleans/Orlando neutral site series in 2022-23. LSU seems to like these neutral series but you’d think their fans would prefer a home and home.
http://www.fbschedules.com/2018/08/which-teams-scheduled-play-most-ranked-opponents-2018/
Who is scheduled to play the most ranked teams in 2018? Only 16 of 130 I-A Teams (12%) will play 5+ ranked teams based on the preseason coaches poll.
6 – KSU (ave rank = 17.5)
5 – LSU (8.2), MI (8.4), RU (9), AU (10.6), TAMU (11), UMD (11.8), Pitt (13.6), TCU (14.8), ND (15.6), UTX (16.2), OkSU (16.8), Baylor, ISU, KU, TT (all 4 @ 17.4)
By conference:
B12 – 8
B10, SEC – 3
ACC, Ind. – 1
OOC games:
6. UW @ 10. AU (Atlanta)
3. OSU @ 16. TCU (Arlington, TX)
8. Miami vs 24. LSU (Arlington, TX)
15. USC @ 21 UTX
22. Boise @ 25. OkSU
13. Stanford @ 11. ND
14. MI @ 11. ND
11. ND @ 15. USC
11. ND @ 17. VT
19. FSU @ 11. ND
2. Clemson @ TAMU
9. PSU @ Pitt
18. MsSU @ KSU
21. UTX @ UMD (Landover, MD)
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Brian – LSU also inked a home and home with Clemson for 2025 & 2026.
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_633a26ca-a0a5-11e8-acee-abf06834e742.html
Here’s LSU’s OOC P-5 opponents thru 2030.
2018 – v. Miami at Arlington
2019 – at Texas
2020 – v. Texas
2021 – at UCLA
2022 – v. Florida State at Nola
2023 – v. Florida State at Orlando
2024 – v. UCLA
2025 – at Clemson
2026 – v. Clemson
2027 – at Oklahoma
2028 – v. Oklahoma
2029 – v. Arizona State
2030 – at Arizona State
Not all of these OOC P-5 games are on opening weekend. LSU may still schedule a neutral site game in some season when they have a home and home already scheduled. In 2011, LSU played Oregon in Arlington and played a road game against West VA.
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The P12 may revise their scheduling to match the SEC’s chicken method of November scheduling.
Jon Wilner followed up with David Shaw about his comments over the summer:
“There has been a lot of discussion over the years about strength-of-schedule being huge (for playoff berths) and everybody playing different schedules,’’ he said. “But we also don’t have the ability to schedule non-conference games late.
“It’s almost like scheduling a bye, because you’re breaking up the conference season so you’re not beating each other up.”
…
“I think there’s a lot of support from the coaches for what I’d call normalizing as many things as possible,” Shaw said.
The SEC is often criticized from afar for playing eight conference games, rarely venturing outside the region and beating up on creampuffs in November, but this much is undeniable:
No conference has done a better job engineering its schedule for success (i.e., playoff berths) within the accepted parameters.
How can the Pac-12 close the gap? Moving to an eight-game conference schedule isn’t an option, at least not at this time — there is little support for downsizing.
…
The next best option for leveling the competitive field, it seems, is revamping the November schedule.
From a logistical standpoint, the change could only work if the conference blocked off a single weekend for FCS opponents, and it would have to be the first or second Saturday because of the onset of rivalry games in the back half of the month.
Even if approved tomorrow, the change would be years away from implementation: Most teams have filled their non-conference slots for the next five or six seasons.
…
Scott confirmed in his December remarks that nothing in the contracts with ESPN or Fox prevents the Pac-12 from revamping the schedule model; nor has he indicated personal opposition to the change.
“The commissioner is open to discussion and challenging the norms,” Shaw said.
…
A November Saturday filled with creampuffs runs contrary to the conference’s football ethos, but it’s one of the few options for leveling the competitive field and positioning multiple teams for playoff berths.
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Make of this what you will. Both Zach Smith’s mom and Courtney Smith’s mom believe that Zach did not abuse Courtney. Both say Courtney vowed to get revenge on Zach for cheating on her and said she would take down Meyer, too.
Lynn Bruce, mother of fired Ohio State receivers coach Zach Smith and daughter of the late Earle Bruce, told me last night that her ex-daughter-in-law Courtney Carano Smith vowed as far back as 2013 that she would “take Zach down and take Urban Meyer down with him.”
“She told me that not one time, but in fact she said it several times over the years,” Bruce said.
She was driven by revenge when she found out her husband had cheated on her, Bruce said.
“When she found out five years ago that Zach had cheated on her, she was so angry that she vowed to me she would get back at him someday. And she said she would take Urban down, too,” she said.
“And this is exactly what she did. She wanted to do as much damage as possible.
“She has been planning this for some time.”
Bruce said that Courtney’s mother, Tina Carano, also heard her daughter state her plans against her husband for his infidelities. The mother and daughter have become estranged over the issue, Bruce claimed. She said Tina Carano also believes Zach Smith never struck her daughter.
“Her own mother is backing Zach in this issue and I am sure that makes her mad,” she said. “They do not speak anymore.”
Reached this afternoon, Tina Carano would only communicate via text messages and backed Lynn Bruce’s version.
When asked if she believed her daughter’s claims of physical abuse, she replied, “I believe that Zach was removing himself from an argument and I do not believe he intentionally abused her. I do not believe he actually intentionally swung or punched her … no.”
As far as ever hearing her daughter say she would “take Zach down,” she replied, “Yes.”
And when Meyer’s name was mentioned, she added, “I cannot quote her exact words as I don’t remember them word for word, but something to that extent. This is my daughter and I love her but I do not approve of what she has done and how it was done.”
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Wow.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24332984/ranking-every-college-football-power-5-conference-division
ESPN ranks the P5 divisions using their FPI stat.
1. SEC W – 13.3
2. B10 E – 11.4
3. ACC A – 10.1
4. P12 N – 9.4
5. B12 – 8.4
6. SEC E – 8.2
7. ACC C – 7.3
8. B10 W – 6.3
9. P12 W – 6.1
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http://footballscoop.com/news/interactive-chart-shows-often-favorite-coach-goes-fourth/
This interactive chart lets you see how often every CFB team has gone for it on 4th down over the past 10 seasons.
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Oofff. Have I been out of it, or has this excessive (abusive) practice been getting the attention it deserves?
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24342005/maryland-terrapins-football-culture-toxic-coach-dj-durkin
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It hasn’t been the big story it should be yet. I think the OSU story has sucked up all the media attention. I was about to post a few links about it, including yours.
From your link:
Several current University of Maryland football players and people close to the Terrapins program describe a toxic coaching culture under head coach DJ Durkin before offensive lineman Jordan McNair’s death in June after a football workout.
McNair, who was 19, died two weeks after being hospitalized following a May 29 team workout. He collapsed after running 110-yard sprints, showing signs of extreme exhaustion and difficulty standing upright. No official cause of death has been released, but ESPN reported Friday that he died of heatstroke suffered during the workout and had a body temperature of 106 degrees after being taken to a hospital.
…
* There is a coaching environment based on fear and intimidation. In one example, a player holding a meal while in a meeting had the meal slapped out of his hands in front of the team. At other times, small weights and other objects were thrown in the direction of players when Court was angry.
* The belittling, humiliation and embarrassment of players is common. In one example, a player whom coaches wanted to lose weight was forced to eat candy bars as he was made to watch teammates working out.
* Extreme verbal abuse of players occurs often. Players are routinely the targets of obscenity-laced epithets meant to mock their masculinity when they are unable to complete a workout or weight lift, for example. One player was belittled verbally after passing out during a drill.
* Coaches have endorsed unhealthy eating habits and used food punitively; for example, a player said he was forced to overeat or eat to the point of vomiting.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24348378/maryland-terrapins-place-trainers-leave-amid-investigation-jordan-mcnair-death
UMD has placed the strength coach and 2 trainers on administrative leave while they investigate.
Athletic director Damon Evans informed the team on Saturday that head football athletic trainer Wes Robinson, director of athletic training Steve Nordwall, and Rick Court, Maryland’s assistant athletics director for sports performance, were placed on administrative leave, according to people at the meeting.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24344541/north-carolina-tar-heels-warn-others-wake-ncaa-violations-shoe-resales
The shoe selling “scandal” may be bigger than just UNC.
North Carolina, which self-reported that 13 football players committed secondary NCAA violations by reselling shoes given to them as part of the school’s apparel deal, has contacted at least three other schools which it learned might have had players sell shoes to the same retailer.
A source told ESPN that the retailer told UNC it had bought shoes from other schools, including Michigan, Marquette and California. Officials from all three schools acknowledged, through athletic department spokesmen, that they were contacted by North Carolina and are in the process of investigating the claims.
On Monday, North Carolina suspended players found to have participated in the sale of shoes for between two and four games. The suspended players sold Air Jordans, which they were given as part of the university’s Jordan sponsorship and which go for thousands of dollars on the resale market.
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https://thecomeback.com/ncaa/5-star-georgia-running-back-recruit-tweets-deletes-that-georgia-paid-him.html
A 5* UGA RB recruit tweeted (then quickly deleted) that he chose UGA over LSU because he got paid. He may have been joking but the NCAA has to investigate this seriously.
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Apparently this has turned out to be a fake tweet that the reporter didn’t notice came from a bogus twitter account.
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https://www.newsobserver.com/latest-news/article216462745.html
Speaking of UNC, their academic scandal has cost them at least $21M in legal fees so far.
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Now Durkin in on adminstrative leave. http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24351245/maryland-football-coach-dj-durkin-put-leave-amid-reports-toxic-culture
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Don’t be surprised if recently-hired AD Damon Evans (then interim AD when the McNair death occurred) and university president Wallace Loh (the man primarily responsible for Maryland entering the Big Ten) don’t survive this either. It’s entirely possible that there may be both a new AD and new football coach in College Park in 2019, even if interim coach Matt Canada does reasonably well amid the turmoil. (He may prefer to return to life as an offensive coordinator, and several SEC schools probably would pay him more for that than the Terps could pay him as a head coach.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2018/08/11/maryland-football-program-under-fire-in-wake-of-reports-on-toxic-culture/?utm_term=.5a0296bfe541
Many Maryland fans are comparing this to the fallout from the Len Bias death in June 1986. Competitively, I think several programs — women’s basketball, men’s soccer, both lacrosse teams — won’t miss a beat, but just as the Bias death cast a shadow over football (Bobby Ross fled after the ’86 season), so might this affect a recently disappointing men’s basketball team. Might Mark Turgeon look for more comfortable surroundings if things look iffy?
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vp81955,
“Don’t be surprised if recently-hired AD Damon Evans (then interim AD when the McNair death occurred) and university president Wallace Loh (the man primarily responsible for Maryland entering the Big Ten) don’t survive this either.”
I’ve got to admit that I would be surprised if either of them was fired. Evans has been at UMD since 2014 but wasn’t in charge until October 2017. He hasn’t had time to learn what the football culture is yet, let alone change it. It would be different if several players step forward and say they complained to Evans or an assistant AD about it but I haven’t heard anything like that.
As for Loh, how is it possibly his fault? Presidents don’t have time to attend practices or workouts. How would he know about this?
“It’s entirely possible that there may be both a new AD and new football coach in College Park in 2019, even if interim coach Matt Canada does reasonably well amid the turmoil. (He may prefer to return to life as an offensive coordinator, and several SEC schools probably would pay him more for that than the Terps could pay him as a head coach.)”
Canada has bounced around a lot (5 schools in 7 years) which may not be a great sign. LSU paid $1.7M to fire him after last season. Maybe he’ll find success as a HC but UMD is a tough place to win at right now with a loaded division, a game at Iowa, UT OOC and even a game at BGSU.
“Many Maryland fans are comparing this to the fallout from the Len Bias death in June 1986. Competitively, I think several programs — women’s basketball, men’s soccer, both lacrosse teams — won’t miss a beat, but just as the Bias death cast a shadow over football (Bobby Ross fled after the ’86 season), so might this affect a recently disappointing men’s basketball team. Might Mark Turgeon look for more comfortable surroundings if things look iffy?”
I don’t think this will have such wide effects. UMD is a hoops school and the Bias “scandal” involved several teammates plus academic issues. This looks like a pure coaches/staff issue and is in football instead of hoops, so it should have less impact.
It would be really nice to see the B10 stop having scandals soon, though. There have been multiple abusive coaching issues alone in the past few years, let alone sexual assault issues and domestic violence.
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Evans played for Vince Dooley at UGa, and football had to be one of his priorities after UMd hired him in 2014. I’m certain he knows the football culture in College Park, just as he did in Athens.
As for Loh, many of his detractors deem him the opposite of Graham Spanier in that he’s shown little interest in sports, particularly football, and that he made the move to the B1G with academics in mind. There remains a sizable group of Terrapin fans, mostly those singularly obsessed with men’s basketball, who will never forgive the school for leaving the ACC. They maintain this tragedy wouldn’t have happened had Maryland remained in its old conference, something I consider nonsense (Clemson and Florida State are every bit as strong as Michigan and Ohio State), especially since 99 out of 100 college presidents given that choice would’ve ditched the ACC for the Big Ten. And Loh is nearing retirement age to begin with.
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vp81955,
“Evans played for Vince Dooley at UGa, and football had to be one of his priorities after UMd hired him in 2014. I’m certain he knows the football culture in College Park, just as he did in Athens.”
Durkin has only been there 2 years. That’s barely enough time to establish a culture. Since Evans didn’t become the interim AD until October, he hasn’t had long to get familiar with the program’s culture (unless he was responsible for football as an assistant AD). It’s not like he’s had years to pop into practices and get a feel for things.
“As for Loh, many of his detractors deem him the opposite of Graham Spanier in that he’s shown little interest in sports, particularly football, and that he made the move to the B1G with academics in mind.”
And that’s a bad thing? Most people prefer their president to keep his/her nose out of the AD’s business and just blindly support it.
“There remains a sizable group of Terrapin fans, mostly those singularly obsessed with men’s basketball, who will never forgive the school for leaving the ACC.”
And that’s fair. It was a huge change and most fan bases wouldn’t respond well to it. It wasn’t the big step up that G5 schools have made.
“They maintain this tragedy wouldn’t have happened had Maryland remained in its old conference, something I consider nonsense (Clemson and Florida State are every bit as strong as Michigan and Ohio State),”
Unless staying in the ACC somehow made Edsall a better coach and/or Durkin less attractive as a candidate, I agree with you.
“especially since 99 out of 100 college presidents given that choice would’ve ditched the ACC for the Big Ten.”
In those same financial circumstances, maybe. Loh’s B10 ties certainly made it easier.
“And Loh is nearing retirement age to begin with.”
He may choose to step down, but it still seems odd from the outside to fire him over this. I wonder if fans would feel different if UMD had already seen the first B10 distribution of over $50M (even if UMD didn’t get all of it as part of the BTN buy-in plan) while seeing the ACC schools get under $30M.
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This is the type of situation where the NCAA should allow transfers of student athletes without penalty or restriction. Obviously no one can leave this semester, but spring term transfers should be allowed.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/true-nonconference-road-games-prove-hazardous-to-college-football-playoff-hopes/
A statistical look at the number of true road OOC games played by P5 teams lately.
Average road OOC games per school over the past 4 years:
8 game conferences:
ACC – 4.64
SEC – 2.43
9 game conferences:
P12 – 3.42
B12 – 3.30
B10 – 2.93
Remember that the SEC numbers include 4 locked rivalries with the ACC. Without those, the SEC drops to 1.86. The ACC has 5 ND games plus their SEC rivalries, without which their average drops to 3.36.
The average over all 64 P5 schools is 3.34 for comparison. CFP teams average 2.67, largely because AL has played none (the only P5 school not to play a true road game). OSU is the next lowest at 2 games with all the others playing 3 except for Clemson’s 4. And going forward, Clemson has stopped scheduling road OOC games except for SC and ND (mandatory).
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https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw-husky-football/ex-uw-signee-ale-kaho-arrives-at-alabama-practices-for-first-time-with-crimson-tide/
Here’s one of the fundamental issues in CFB. A 5* recruit to UW couldn’t get admitted academically despite taking a summer language class. So he asked for a release from his LOI and it was granted. A few days later he’s at practice for Alabama because they follow just the NCAA guidelines which the player did meet.
To make it worse, his family tried to sell the story to the media that family problems were the issue (2 deaths, his parents arguing) and that football wasn’t the focus at all.
Last week, Kaho had formally requested a release from his National Letter of Intent with Washington because of several family issues, one of his uncles said in an interview with the Seattle Times. Two family members, an aunt and an uncle of Kaho’s, died in July, and his parents this year have been going through a “nasty” divorce.
Kaho was in Seattle for about six weeks this summer — but unable to officially work out with his UW teammates because he had not been admitted into UW. The uncle claimed the family was concerned about Kaho’s personal well-being, claiming the linebacker had lost weight while in Seattle.
The uncle said the family laid out the same reasoning to UW’s compliance office last week when it asked for Kaho’s release. Petersen announced Monday that he had granted Kaho his release.
“Football is not even our concern right now,” the uncle said on Aug. 3. “He does not look right. He does not act right. He’s not the same bubbly kid we know.”
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https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2018/08/10/with-revenue-outlook-stabilized-pac-12-networks.html
John Ourand interviewed Larry Scott about the P12N.
“It’s a stable business model,” said Pac-12 Commissioner Larry Scott. “There’s not going to be a lot of fluctuation one way or another given that we’ve got declining subscribers in the ecosystem offset by the increased rates that we’ve baked in annually in our deals.”
…
“I know that the value of these TV networks is most often measured in dollars and cents, and that is a critical piece,” Scott said. “A main purpose of our TV networks was our mission, which was to create a platform to create value and a competitive advantage for all these Olympic sports that we’re so proud of. I feel like we’re only scratching the surface in terms of taking advantage of owning and controlling your own TV network.”
As an example, Scott referenced programming changes planned for the upcoming football season that are designed to bring a bigger profile to conference schools, even if they don’t significantly add revenue to the networks. The channel will launch a Pac-12 Networks-produced “College GameDay”-style show at each campus. The network also plans to send reporters and crews to campus on Wednesdays, two days earlier than they used to arrive.
“These are not decisions you make for financial reasons; there’s no ROI on that,” he said. “You make that decision because you see a lot of value in the positioning, exposure and what that will do for you from a marketing perspective and a recruiting perspective.
“Our fans have told us that they want us to go deeper in terms of our football coverage. We want to capture what’s unique and special about a campus environment leading up to a college football game and show how that is differentiated from an NFL football game.”
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/eight-years-of-big-ten-scandals-paint-unflattering-picture-but-connecting-dots-may-be-unfair/
A look at the string of scandals in the B10 since 2011.
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Pretty sad reading. If I am a trustee at any B1G school, I have to wonder what intercollegiate athletics does for my school. $60 M at PSU. $500 M at MSU. Perhaps $200 M to $400 M at tOSU. And 11 other schools waiting in line.
The other P5 conferences have similar problems building. USC is involved in a scandal right now.
In light of these costs, can intercollegiate athletics be justified financially, never mind morally?
If you throw in the moral dimension, and the large number of athletes who are not academically qualified, especially in the revenue producing sports, big time athletics looks like a very bad deal indeed.
Perhaps the Division III model is better. No scholarships. No recruiting. Scrape together whoever is on campus. Let AAU do the rest.
PS. I was at Purdue during Griese’s last season, and I taught at tOSU for 35 years, including Archie’s first. Greatly enjoyed both experiences. Had a number of athletes in class, including at least one starter for Woody. I’m really torn about big time athletics.
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Really? How much does big time sports do for the reputation of the university? How many alums donate because of sports, even if to the university and not the athletic department? How many students apply to B1G schools because of the big time sports? All three of my sons would not consider any school that did not have what is now P5 sports.
One is a Badger. He was offered a full scholarship from a very good smaller school with no athletics. He adamantly did not want to go there. He loved Madison and everything that went with it, most of which is based on big time sports.
The other two went to Florida State. Again, based on football and all of the excitement that goes with it.
Rutgers got a big spike in donations, and admission applications, when they were admitted to the B1G and we all know how bad RU is in athletics. RU still has a very low alumni donation participation rate. Will that increase over the years of being in the B1G? My guess is that if they can manage mediocrity, money and attention from alums will flow.
I lived in NJ forever until one year ago. For years, there very few “R” stickers on cars. Then the B1G came along. All of a sudden lots of cars had “R” stickers. Nothing like Gator or Seminole stickers in certain areas of Florida, but far more than there had been before.
If RU ever had decent sports, I would expect to see “R” stickers all over NJ.
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I concede all of that. But, if the athletic department starts running large deficits and exposes the institution to crippling settlements, then maybe the benefits you cite are not worth the cost.
These settlements, a half billion dollars for MSU, have the potential to wreck intercollegiate athletics, and actually to wreck the universities themselves. MSU has to fund the settlement itself. The state will not provide the monies, and the state has ruled that student tuition and fees cannot be used for it. Much of MSU’s endowment is restricted and cannot be used. So, MSU will have to float a bond. How they propose to service it, they have not stated.
MSU’s academic programs will suffer a major negative impact because of that settlement. Gone will be seed monies for new research projects and academic programs, faculty hiring and pay raises will be affected. And it will go on for years, maybe decades.
May your son should have taken the full scholarship.
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But, the huge problem at MSU is not an athletic department issue, except in the most indirect manner. If MSU had left the B1G ten years ago and played D III football, there is no reason to think that the gymnastics horror would have been any different. That went on for years and involved hundreds of gymnasts and that is why the number is so huge.
Has there ever been anything else even close to this in an athletic department?
Penn State’s situation is perhaps the closest. That did not exactly crush PSU.
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bob sykes,
“But, if the athletic department starts running large deficits and exposes the institution to crippling settlements, then maybe the benefits you cite are not worth the cost.”
But none of the ADs under discussion run large deficits and it remains to be seen what, if any, impacts these settlements have on the academic side of these universities. PSU doesn’t seem to be suffering.
“These settlements, a half billion dollars for MSU, have the potential to wreck intercollegiate athletics, and actually to wreck the universities themselves. MSU has to fund the settlement itself. The state will not provide the monies, and the state has ruled that student tuition and fees cannot be used for it. Much of MSU’s endowment is restricted and cannot be used. So, MSU will have to float a bond. How they propose to service it, they have not stated.”
I think you overstate the potential for damage. MSU will have to delay some athletic construction and maybe trim some costs from athletics. Beyond that, how much will really need to change? MSU’s AD brought ion $126M in 2016-17 and only spent $117.5M. Add in the big jump in TV money with the new deal and that’s a sizable profit already. Trim some costs and they could have $25M in profits every year. That’s a good starting point for paying off bonds.
And that’s just the AD. Nassar was a faculty member so the AD shouldn’t shoulder the entire bill.
“MSU’s academic programs will suffer a major negative impact because of that settlement. Gone will be seed monies for new research projects and academic programs, faculty hiring and pay raises will be affected. And it will go on for years, maybe decades.”
Based on what evidence? Those things could happen but they aren’t guaranteed effects. MSU’s leaders aren’t idiots. They won’t sacrifice their future if they can pull the money from somewhere else.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24374654/maryland-terrapins-accept-responsibility-mistakes-made-death-jordan-mcnair
UMD is officially accepting responsibility for their player’s death. One assistant trainer has resigned.
University of Maryland President Wallace D. Loh on Tuesday said the school “accepts legal and moral responsibility for the mistakes” made by its athletic training staff at a workout on May 29 that ultimately led to the death of 19-year-old offensive lineman Jordan McNair from heatstroke.
The university also has parted ways with Rick Court, the assistant athletic director for sports performance. Court resigned Monday, according to a letter he posted on Twitter, and reached a financial settlement with the university Tuesday.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24382067/qb-justin-mcmillan-transfer-lsu-tigers
LSU is down to 2 scholarship QBs as 2 others just decided to transfer out. Presumably that means Joe Burrow, the grad transfer from OSU, has won the starting job. A new OC and only 2 QBs isn’t a great start to fixing an offense.
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Brian – the McMillan transfer was expected. He’s a red-shirt junior but can do a graduate transfer immediately. He was really just a camp arm and clip board holder. Narcisse is a different issue, but was only going to be a wildcat package guy this season. Narcisse had considerable rust on him too. He didn’t play his last two years of high school due to injuries, and he redshirted last year. While he has great potential, it wasn’t going to be showcased this year at LSU.
Burrow’s backup is a 4-star and would have been the starter had Burrow not transferred. There’s also a preferred walk-on that may be just as ready to go as Narcisse.
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http://awfulannouncing.com/online-outlets/directv-now-expected-to-become-largest-streaming-service-by-end-of-2018-passing-sling-tv.html
DirecTV Now is expected to pass Sling TV as the most popular streaming service this year.
One reason for Sling’s fall is the fact that Dish isn’t marketing it as aggressively as DirecTV. And while Sling was once considered an important part of Dish’s future, it has been replaced by the company’s focus on other areas, like wireless and 5G.
The increase of subscribers going to streaming services has helped ease the pain of pay TV providers, which have experienced heavy cord cutting over the last few years as prices have continued to rise.
It’s a little troublesome to hear Dish is losing interest in Sling already. It’s only been out for 2 years.
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An OSU reporter has some things to say about how ESPN has covered the story. I won’t pull quotes in order to avoid increasing the bias.
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https://969thegame.iheart.com/featured/open-mike/content/2018-08-15-podcast-the-ohio-state-side-of-the-story-w-authorreporter-jeff-snook/
And here is a 13 minute radio interview where he defends his claim that Tom Herman stirred up this whole story despite Herman and McMurphy both denying it.
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https://espnmediazone.com/us/photos/galleries/2018/08/16/espn-marvel-2018-college-football-kickoff-comic-covers/
ESPN and Marvel teamed up to do some kickoff game program covers.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/how-to-fix-a-college-football-game-and-influence-its-outcome-in-four-steps/
A former mob boss explains how easy it is to fix a CFB game in 4 simple steps. The story is full of quotes.
What follows is a detailed description of how to fix a game, via Franzese. Remember, it’s not so much about determining the outcome; it’s about affecting the point spread.
1. Start with an athlete who gets “upside down” — loses a lot of money with a bookie. Instead of a street bookie strong-arming the player, he would let him continue betting — and losing — more. “We used to purposefully put [that sort of bettor] in the situation that you wanted,” Franzese explained.
2. Present a way for them to get even: shave points. If the spread is 10, the mark might be instructed get the final margin to two touchdowns. If it is 13, a couple of timely turnovers might push the final margin to 20. “If you don’t do this a couple of times, then don’t worry,” Franzese told his marks on many occasions, “you don’t have to call me anymore. I’ll find you.”
…
3. Attempt to get in the pocket of the referees officiating the game. The prospect of officials being compromised chills the blood of college administrators. College officials are contract workers who have other full-time jobs and are paid by the game. In college football, that number can range from $1,000 to $3,000 per contest.
…
4. Be smart with your bets. The point spread can be affected by many factors — weather and injuries among them. But when the spread moves because a large amount of money is wagered, that gets the attention of the FBI. The bets Franzese is talking about wouldn’t rise to that level. There would be enough small bets spread around to various sports books. There would be no spike in betting to notice.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/candid-coaches-which-college-football-coach-runs-the-cleanest-program/
I-A coaches were asked anonymously who runs a completely clean program:
Shaw (Stanford) – 17%
Petersen (UW) – 17%
Cutcliffe (Duke) – 13%
Snyder (KSU) – 8%
Dantonio (MSU) – 8%
Bohl (Wyoming) – 8%
Chryst (WI) – 8%
Also named (probably means 1 vote or 4%) – Patterson (TCU), Swinney (Clemson), Meyer (OSU), Dykes (SMU), Fitzgerald (NW)
By conference:
B10 – 4 (24%)
P12 – 2 (34%)
ACC – 2 (17%)
B12 – 2 (12%)
G5 – 2 (12%)
SEC – 0
That’s good news for the B10 and P12 and telling for the reputation of the SEC.
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https://watchstadium.com/news/zach-smith-sex-toys-ohio-state-offices-staffer-nude-photos-white-house-08-17-2018/
I’ve seen some media members say that OSU fans need to stop thinking that Brett McMurphy has something personal against OSU. That’s probably true, but stories like this don’t help. It’s a lengthy piece that only discusses Smith having sex toys delivered to his office and taking photos of his privates in various places.
How is any of that relevant? Sex toys aren’t illegal and plenty of people get packages sent to work so they aren’t left on a porch for hours. The pictures aren’t good, but again it’s something plenty of people do. There is no reason to think Meyer knew about any of this. How is this not just character assassination, and of someone who was already fired to boot?
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I guess I’m dense. How is buying sex toys and taking inappropriate pictures of yourself in anyway related to domestic violence. I am shocked he took pictures in the White House. **WARNING** what follows is not political but very sarcastic. Since it’s completion in 1800, that’s the first time in 218 years I ever heard of anything inappropriate at the White House. Geez Louise. Then the media stands around like jackasses and wonders why they have no credibility.
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“Shocked” is also sarcastic. At my age nothing shocks me anymore.
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McMurphy has nothing against Ohio St. Its just Ohio St. fans doing their Penn St. fan imitation-“They’re all out to get us and only us.”
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As I said, he probably doesn’t. But stories like that one fan the flames of that belief. And OSU has a history with a few media members actively out to get them. Take Mark May, for example. Even his colleagues admitted he was blatantly anti-OSU.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/08/17/ohio-state-urban-meyer-investigation-status-president-michael-drake
OSU has announced that their investigation will end on Sunday. The investigators will then prepare a report and present it to the BoT this week. After that the BoT will deliberate and then the president will announce the outcome.
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Since there “seems” to be some doubt swirling around this matter, my guess is that Urban keeps his job and OSU virtue signals by suspending him for x number of games.
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The betting here is that Meyer would refuse a suspension and quit. The probable outcomes are exoneration or firing, no in between.
I note the irony in the poll Brian cited above, that Meyer runs a clean program.
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If he fully fulfilled his reporting responsibilities then he should object to a suspension. You shouldn’t be punished for doing what you’ve been instructed to do. The AD knew about Smith back in 2015 if not before and he didn’t choose to fire Smith either.
I will note that nothing about this issue deals with the program not being clean. No rule breaking by Meyer is alleged. Just because society has shifted over the past year on domestic violence doesn’t mean OSU is suddenly dirty. The most recent allegations are in question as the legal system didn’t press charges and her own mother doubts her story. Should OSU fire everyone the instant their ex makes allegations? That seems like the antithesis of due process and an invitation to lawsuits.
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Where have you been the last couple of years? He knew about it. He didn’t fire the guy. It doesn’t matter that he let the police investigate like he is supposed to. We have a lynch mob mentality out there.
I don’t think he did anything wrong on this issue from what I’ve read, but I still think there’s a good chance Ohio St. gets rid of him.
However, the stuff on his treatment of the Florida players is disturbing.
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bullet,
“Where have you been the last couple of years? He knew about it. He didn’t fire the guy. It doesn’t matter that he let the police investigate like he is supposed to. We have a lynch mob mentality out there.”
I know. But it is important to remember that this pre-dates #MeToo.
“I don’t think he did anything wrong on this issue from what I’ve read, but I still think there’s a good chance Ohio St. gets rid of him.”
My guess is that they don’t. If Meyer reported it properly then Gene Smith is in more trouble (and more expendable) than Meyer. OSU might change their HR policies going forward and may even give Meyer a slap on the wrist, but you can’t do much if he followed the guidelines. Meyer would easily win a lawsuit and OSU would owe him over $30M if they fired him right now without cause.
“However, the stuff on his treatment of the Florida players is disturbing.”
His history at UF was one of the reasons I didn’t really want OSU to hire Meyer in the first place, but he’s been a different coach at OSU.
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From what I have read, it seems that there is a lot of doubt about the matter. Both sets of parents claim that she is lying. Police investigations came up with nothing, despite many 911 calls, etc. In matrimonial disputes false claims that the husband has been abusive are very common. The claims create leverage for child custody, money, etc.
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Very true. And firing someone over such allegations opens the path to a lawsuit.
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My Father-In-Law was a police officer in Pittsburgh for 40 years. He would always say domestic calls were the absolute WORST. If they didn’t have a partner they would call for back up. I know this my come as a surprise but alcohol was almost always involved. 98% of the time it ended with both spouses screaming at the police. Wife,”Don’t touch him, that’s my husband!” Husband, “You can’t talk to her like that, that’s my wife!” Once the screaming stopped the officers would just leave.
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Domestic calls are where police are most likely to get killed.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/candid-coaches-who-are-the-most-overrated-and-underrated-college-football-coaches/
Most overrated and underrated coaches according to their peers.
Overrated:
Taggart (FSU) – 20%
Franklin (PSU) – 20%
Ferentz (IA) – 13%
Kiffin (FAU) -13%
5 others – 34%
Underrated:
Shaw (Stanford) – 12%
Petersen (UW) – 12%
Mullen (UF) – 8%
Fitzgerald (NW) – 8%
Whittingham (Utah) – 8%
14 others – 52%
The comments are the best part. I’ll only include a few below:
Explain yourselves (overrated):
“James Franklin. His coaching peers know he is full of it.”
…
“When [Franklin] got the Penn State job, I thought, ‘Man, he’s a good marketer.’ He did a nice job with that. It’ll be interesting without Saquon [Barkley]. He’s underrated. He turns a lot of no[-gain] plays into 60-yard touchdowns.”
…
“If you had the No. 1 recruiting class in the country every year [you’d win like Nick Saban]. He shows up at every single game with a better roster than the teams he ‘s playing. … If you count cheating and getting the best players in the country as part of running a program, he’s the best in the country. It’s like saying an NFL coach is the best coach in the league if he gets 25 first-round picks every year.”
“I like Urban [Meyer], but there have been some characters that played for him that I thought should have not allowed.”
Explain yourselves (underrated):
“Mark Dantonio [is underrated]. He gets no respect because he isn’t flashy and in the same state with a flashy guy that is unproven and hasn’t won a big game yet.”
…
“[Jeff Brohm and Paul Chryst] I’ve always said, ‘Show me a coach that wins at Alabama and Clemson, I’ll show you a good coach. Show me a coach that wins at Wake Forest, I’ll show you a great coach.’ It’s hard to mess it up at Ohio State and Penn State. It’s really hard to win at Iowa State.”
…
Interestingly enough, three coaches — David Shaw (Stanford), Tom Herman (Texas) and Kirk Ferentz (Iowa) — received votes in both polls. As one would expect, the comments regarding the most underrated coaches were quite tame compared to those for those considered overrated by their peers.
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https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP preseason poll, very similar to the Coaches poll.
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. WI
5. OSU
6. UW
7. OU
8. Miami
9. AU
10. PSU
11. MSU
12. ND – plays MI, NW
14. MI
16. TCU – plays OSU
23. UT – plays UMD
By conference:
ACC – 2, 8, 19, 20
B10 – 4, 5, 10, 11, 14
B12 – 7, 16, 17, 23
P12 – 6, 13, 15, 24
SEC – 1, 3, 9, 18, 25
Other – 12, 21, 22
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https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/08/ohio_state_board_of_trustees_t.html
OSU’s BoT will meet on Wednesday to discuss the Urban Meyer situation.
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https://www.si.com/tech-media/2018/08/17/watch-sports-tv-future-espn-college-football-soccer-phelps-laettner
A look at how complicated watching sports in the future might be.
ESPN VP of programming Nick Dawson points to a long line of network launches that have been initially bolstered by college sports—ESPN+ is just the latest. “What we are doing is going deeper and more expansive with conferences that haven’t been as accessible in the past,” Dawson says. “That’s a service to those fans.”
He’s right. For fans of niche schools or sports, online streaming services can provide an all-in-one destination, broadcasting events that would have been wholly unavailable a few years ago. FloSports built a business by streaming wrestling and track, for instance.
But for the casual sports fan, the benefits are far murkier. Two things currently keep major sporting attractions from going behind digital paywalls: (1) advertising money on traditional television and (2) restrictive rights agreements with leagues. So, as the cable economy continues to shrink and after new broadcasting deals get signed, expect to see more games offered online-only.
…
Everyone agrees that this proliferation of competitors can’t continue. Consolidation will eventually come. Until then, one winner is clear: non-sports fans, as they decreasingly subsidize our sports obsession. But for the rest of us? Maybe the cable bundle doesn’t sound so bad after all.
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Online streaming requires some sort of cable hookup. While individual cable networks like ESPN might have problems, the cable companies distributing their content won’t.
However, cable does require a minimum population density to function, and much of rural America simply doesn’t qualify for cable. In recent years, telephone companies have leveraged their already-in-place and already-paid-for telephone land lines to offer DSL. In fact, I am connected to the internet by DSL. But bandwidths on DSL are quite small. Mine is advertised at 1.5 MB, but the usual bit rate is less than 200 KB, which is marginal for streaming.
Moreover, modern HD broadcast TV is limited to about 35 to 40 miles service radius. Outside that, the signal strength is too low for reception, even with signal boosters. The only solutions for rural people wanting regular TV are DirectV and Dish. In fact, we get our “local” TV (some 50 miles away) from DirectV. DirectV also provides all of our cable networks, like ESPN.
So, it seems to me that all this talk about streaming is simply irrelevant, at least for me and my neighbors. It cannot have and will not have any impact on how I get television or internet services. Even inside a major city, there will be no impact of the delivery method, regardless of what happens to the various cable networks.
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One difference in a city is that there are so many WiFi hot spots that are free to use that many people can surf and stream without ever paying for their own internet connection as long as they pay their phone bill.
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Perhaps Elon Musk’s starlink network may become a player once it’s up and running.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/spacex-starlink-elon-musk-news/amp/
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I don’t put much stock in his more fanciful ideas. Starlink would require over 4000 satellites and he wants it running by 2024 for $10B. So far he has 2 test satellites up. The project isn’t impossible but it will take a lot longer and cost a lot more than he says.
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They use to describe landing a rocket as throwing a pencil over the Empire State Building and landing it on its eraser on the other side. He’s doing it, and on a postage stamp floating in the ocean. 40M subscriptions (world wide) at $65/mo is over $30B/year. It’s how he plans to fund his Mars colonization plans. He also has received FCC licenses that require some modest functioning level in just a few years.
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He’s getting there.
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/space-exploration-technologies/elon-musk-spacexs-starlink-satellite-broadband-service-meets-key-performance-metric/
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He still has just 2 test satellites. The total project calls for 4400+ at 750 miles and 7500+ at 200 miles. And there are competitors. He can’t make Tesla profitable but I’m supposed to have faith he can get 12,000 satellites launched and running anytime soon?
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“ The project isn’t impossible but it will take a lot longer and cost a lot more than he says.”
Beta testing going well. Emergency responders used it during summer wildfires in WA. I think he’s likely to beat the 2024 timeline.
(P.S. Tesla is now profitable)
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Their current plans launch < 2200 satellites per year. It can be operational with a lot fewer satellites, but his plan is 12,000. That isn't happening by 2024. Not even close. As for it becoming profitable, that's years away at least. Who knows what competition Starlink will face by then?
As for Tesla, they have never run a profit on selling vehicles. They sell environmental credits and energy storage to make a profit. Any business can make a profit if they get into enough sectors.
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Starling will be selling subscriptions next year. SpaceX record of recovering boosters is dramatically lowering Starlink cost. Once BFR flying cost of launch will be a bit more than the fuel.
Tesla is clean energy capture, storage, and use company. Vehicles are just what media focus on. Tesla hasn’t benefited from 7k tax incentive to purchase for more than a year that others still benefit from.
They are a tech company, too, that is beginning to market after sales offerings to vehicle owners, along with continuous regular upgrading vehicle performance.
Energy storage is predicted to grow 25X in next decade.
Self driving may in fact become a reality soon. They have billion of miles more data informing that effort than anyone else (which may very well be another marketable asset).
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https://bigten.org/documents/2018/8/21//2018_19_Big_Ten_MBB_Schedule.pdf?id=6046
The B10 released the men’s hoop schedule.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/08/21/texas-am-faces-ncaa-scrutiny-former-player-eligibility-jimbo-fisher/1052434002/
Good news for Bullet. A former TAMU player is accusing Jimbo Fisher and his staff of NCAA violations.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/should-the-college-football-playoff-expand-to-six-teams-barry-alvarez-is-convinced/
Barry Alvarez wants to expand the CFP to 6 teams including a G5 autobid.
“I would now be open to six,” Alvarez told CBS Sports. “Two byes [for the top two teams]. … Maybe give one spot to the … [Group of Five champion].”
…
“There are probably six teams that can win,” Alvarez said. “Some of those schools — that have years like that — should have a chance. They could fit it in.”
“I’m thinking more open-minded to six, personally,” he added. “I never thought we’d want to.”
…
Alvarez said his mind began to change last year after his Badgers stood as the last undefeated Power Five team heading into the Big Ten Championship Game.
Wisconsin, then 12-0, slipped from fourth to sixth and out of the playoff after a six-point loss to Ohio State in the league title game. The Big Ten was therefore left out of the CFP for the first time as Ohio State didn’t make the top four even as conference champion.
“I knew one commissioner who wasn’t very happy,” Alvarez said in reference to the Big Ten’s Jim Delany.
Alvarez added that the margin of Ohio State’s second loss of the season — 55-24 to Iowa on Nov. 4 – should not have mattered.
“The score of wins is not supposed to make any difference,” he said. “It was stated [in the criteria].”
The CFP’s Selection Committee Protocol states if teams are close, the outcomes against common opponents should be considered, “without incenting margin of victory.”
…
“I can’t speak for anyone else [on the committee]; I’m telling you one of the most important things is strength of schedule,” Alvarez said. “That’s one of the things they look at first.
“Washington got in [the 2016 playoff] with no strength of schedule. That’s what pissed me off last year. We still played nine conference games. You can tell me Nebraska didn’t have that good a record, [but] you go into Lincoln, Nebraska, at night and they pull out every stop there was. A good football team had to win that game.”
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https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-08-22/division-i-mens-basketball-committee-adopts-new-ranking
It’s official. The NCAA has dropped the RPI and will start using the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) instead.
The NCAA Evaluation Tool, which will be known as the NET, relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. To make sense of team performance data, late-season games (including from the NCAA tournament) were used as test sets to develop a ranking model leveraging machine learning techniques. The model, which used team performance data to predict the outcome of games in test sets, was optimized until it was as accurate as possible. The resulting model is the one that will be used as the NET going forward.
The NET was built to create a ranking system that was as accurate as possible while also evaluating team performance fairly. To ensure fairness, certain types of data were omitted from the model. Of key importance, game date and order were omitted to give equal importance to both early and late-season games. In addition, a cap of 10 points was applied to the winning margin to prevent rankings from encouraging unsportsmanlike play, such as needlessly running up the score in a game where the outcome was certain.
“What has been developed is a contemporary method of looking at teams analytically, using results-based and predictive metrics that will assist the Men’s Basketball Committee as it reviews games throughout the season,” said Dan Gavitt, senior vice president of basketball for the NCAA. “While no perfect rankings exist, using the results of past tournaments will help ensure that the rankings are built on an objective source of truth.”
This marks the second consecutive year the committee has made a significant change. Before last season, a quadrant system was adopted to place greater emphasis on success in games played away from home on the team sheets, which offer a snapshot of each team’s schedule and results. The existing quadrant system still will be used on team sheets, with the NET replacing the Rating Percentage Index to sort games based on the opponent’s ranking:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-351, Neutral 201-351, Away 241-353
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/08/22/ncaa-tournament-new-metric-tournament-selection-process/1062465002/
More about it. Oddly, they’re only making this change for the men. They’ll still use RPI for women.
“The men’s basketball (selection) committee has had helpful metrics it has used over the years, and will continue to use the team sheets, but those will now be sorted by the NCAA Evaluation Tool,” said Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball, in a statement. “As has always been the case, the committee won’t solely focus on metrics to select at-large teams and seed the field. There will always be a subjective element to the tournament selection process, too.”
…
While a game’s scoring margin will be considered, the NET will cap that at 10 points to avoid teams blowing out other teams.
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Too many “mid-majors” looking too good on the RPI. Now a dismal conference record won’t hurt the power conference teams as much. That isn’t really an issue with the women. Plus there isn’t as much money there. I don’t believe for a minute this was motivated by “accuracy” although they may have been concerned about people gaming the system.
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You don’t hear as many complaints with the women, but all the same issues should apply. If nothing else, it would be much more PC to do it the same way for both.
I do think the NCAA was tired of coaches scheduling to the RPI and would prefer a more accurate metric to help their committee. They know they’ll still get complaints but people have railed on the RPI for a long time and shown how to game it.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/the-ncaa-tournament-committee-should-come-clean-on-how-it-will-determine-net-results/
Jerry Palm talking about NET.
The NCAA says there will be five key components to the formula.
* Team Value Index
* Average offensive and defensive efficiency
* Division I winning percentage
* Adjusted winning percentage, giving rewards for road wins and penalties for home losses
* Scoring margin, capped at 10 points. Overtime games will be treated as one point margins, regardless of the final score.
Team Value Index has yet to be defined, but it is results-oriented, involves strength of schedule and is the most dominant factor.
…
While the NCAA “will be as transparent as possible” with regard to defining and releasing the data that goes into the inputs of the system, according to NCAA senior vice president for basketball Dan Gavitt, no decision has been made as to whether the actual formula of how the NET is determined will be revealed to the public.
Gavitt was even reluctant to use the word “formula” to describe it. He said that, “formulas are archaic, like the RPI was” and said that the artificial intelligence algorithms may not be easy for people to understand.
…
The NCAA will make its rankings available, but releasing the formula is also important so that the results can be independently verified. Every year since the RPI formula became publicly available, I have found mistakes in the data that the NCAA used to calculate the RPI. I found those errors because I was able to duplicate the formula and investigate differences between my data and theirs. I was not the only one who found these errors. The NCAA relies on schools to self-report data that will be input into this system. Sometimes, there are mistakes, which are more likely to slip through the system if the results cannot be independently verified.
…
Gavitt disagrees though. He says the NET will be used similarly to the way the RPI was used – as a means of aggregating teams into the buckets that are now being called quadrants. He said, “I don’t believe the committee will necessarily rely on the NET more. It will be used as the tool to sort the data on the team sheet”.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa-replaces-rpi-new-ncaa-tournament-selection-metric-154236270.html
A comparison of the RPI and the NET.
How does the NET differ from the RPI?
The RPI was based solely on winning percentage, opponent winning percentage, and opponents’ opponent winning percentage – and far too heavily on the latter two categories. It lacked theoretical or statistical nuance. Many schools had cracked the code and figured out how to game it.
The NET will look beyond win/loss records, breaking every game down by possession, and factoring in where the game was played. It will value a blowout on the road more than a narrow escape at home.
…
What is the main argument against NET?
The most rational qualm with the NET formula is the incorporation of predictive metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency. They are useful for evaluating a team’s true quality.
But sport, as long as it has existed, has been based on results – wins and losses. The NET will help the committee judge who the better teams are. But better doesn’t necessarily equate to most deserving, and many believe tournament selection should remain a reflection of which teams have earned bids/seeds by winning games, not by playing good basketball.
There’s a difference. When you consider the contrast between a .500 team with 15 blowout wins and 15 one-point losses and another with 20 one-point wins and 10 blowout losses, you realize as much.
How would the NET consider those two squads if they played identical schedules? We don’t know the answer to that question, and it sounds like the NCAA doesn’t even know either …
The lack of transparency, and of a legible, easy-to-understand formula, is somewhat troubling.
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http://www.latimes.com/sports/highschool/la-sp-high-schools-sondheimer-20180819-story.html
High school football participation in CA is down by nearly 10,000 since 2015. The national trend is similar but of lesser magnitude. This could become a huge issue for the P12 as most of the programs rely on CA for recruits. Also, football is less ingrained in the culture up and down the west coast so all the western states may show a faster decline than the midwest and south.
Whether because of demographic changes, safety concerns or time commitment, football is facing real challenges. There are nearly 10,000 fewer students playing the sport in California since 2015. A participation survey expected to be released this week by the National Federation of State High School Assns. could show another year of decline in football participation nationally. Last year, there were 25,901 fewer students playing 11-man football.
…
Plenty of people think this is just a phase football is going through, with media attention focused on concussions, which is scaring parents.
“Football players are kids attracted to chaos and risk,” Croson said. “Our world seems to be like trying to make us all the same and we aren’t. The fear of concussion isn’t anything like it was in the ’60s and ’70s because of the advancement in the game. USA football is doing tremendous work taking the head out of the game.”
Safety concerns are being addressed, but high school coaches need to start re-evaluating how they run their programs. Yes, there’s nothing wrong with trying to emulate college programs with their emphasis on elaborate weight-training programs, fancy shoe-company-sponsored uniforms and advanced technology with video gadgets, but be careful what you wish for. The focus is all about winning in college. Coaches get fired and players lose scholarships if they don’t produce.
High school players who used to come out just to be part of the program, learn life lessons and hang out with friends are vanishing. The time commitment isn’t worth it and there are other sports to try, such as lacrosse, soccer and volleyball. Coaches need to figure out ways to get more people involved than just the stars, make practices fun and create an environment where participation matters again.
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None of the current wave of immigrants has any history in or interest in American football. They are all soccer fans. California is a case in point. Its population is a little under half white, nonhispanic, and a little over 6% black, nonhispanic. It is about one-third Latino. The trend is strongly in the Latino direction.
The statistics for LA are even more skewed Latino: 48% Latino, 29% white, 10% black. I should not be surprised to see all the NFL teams in LA fail. Baseball should thrive.
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True, and the article mentions demographics as one concern. But I’m guessing TX has less of an issue, despite also having a large immigrant population, because HS football is so important there.
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Well California also has a robust Asian immigration (though dwarfed by the Latino surge) and they probably skew away from the sport not only b/c of soccer but cricket (Indians, Pakistanis) and concern about concussions/CTE (lots of medical professionals and worry about effect on intellectual pursuits). The effects of this are seen in some of the closer-in north, NW and west Chicago suburbs where while enrollment and average income are not drastically down, participation in football is.
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https://t.co/AcFmNFaAZH
OSU’s report on their investigation is out. As everyone knows, Meyer is suspended without pay for 3 games and can’t start coaching practice until after week 1. Gene Smith also got suspended without pay.
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Ohio St. felt compelled to do something. Did something without a lot of impact, but it looks good. Meyer sticks to the script, apologizing for not acting as judge over his assistant for something going on in the assistant’s marriage.
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If you read the report, Smith’s issues went beyond the domestic violence allegations and not everything was reported that should have been. I agree some of this is PC PR, but there were some real mistakes made here too. The report just reinforces my opinion that Smith should’ve been fired years ago for purely football reasons. The only reason he kept his job was because he was Earle’s grandson. Anyone else would’ve been fired for his behavior.
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Yet more problems at Maryland: The College Park student newspaper, the Diamondback, reported last night that former AD Kevin Anderson arranged for $15,000 in department-controlled money to help defend two football players accused of sexual assault in June 2017, among the things that led to his eventual dismissal. The university ordered Anderson to cut ties to the attorneys hired in the case, which he refused to do.
https://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps-football/2018/8/24/17775778/maryland-football-kevin-anderson-damon-evans-dj-durkin
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/maryland-ad-used-school-funds-to-defend-football-players-in-sex-assault-case/2018/08/23/3a10faae-a739-11e8-97ce-cc9042272f07_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.52166b23ba4c
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/08/23/kevin-anderson-university-funds-football-players-sexual-misconduct-case-maryland
The lawyer is saying Durkin hired him, not the AD. This may be the final nail in Durkin’s coffin.
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The P12 is undertaking a research project using VR to study concussions and healing from them. It’s starting with five schools but will expand to all sports at all 12 schools.
The goggles and tablet are essential pieces to a research project the conference hopes will help revolutionize our understanding of concussions, particularly the recovery process.
The cause is there for all to see, usually in the form of a helmet-on-helmet collision visible on a half-dozen camera angles.
The recovery stage, however, unfolds where the cameras cannot go, and at varying speed, in each traumatized brain.
“Research shows that proper recovery limits the chances of a secondary concussion, and that the sooner a player is removed from play, the faster the recovery,’’ said Matthew McQueen, an associate professor at Colorado and the director of the Pac-12’s Concussion Coordinating Unit, which will administer the project.
“The student-athletes at Division I schools, unlike, say, an emergency room population, are monitored daily — it’s a unique level of high surveillance into how concussion works.”
That surveillance will be made possible, in part, by the VR goggles designed to track ocular motor efficiency. The goggles present a red dot that moves in a circular pattern; while the eyes track the dot, infrared cameras within the goggles track the accuracy of the eye movement.
The athlete’s tracking score in a post-collision state is downloaded to the Samsung tablet, then immediately entered into a secure portal that contains a database.
Within that database is the athlete’s previously-established baseline (i.e., trauma-free) score. The numbers are compared to help determine the presence, and degree of, concussion.
“We’ve found that concussion recovery has a signature eye movement,’’ McQueen said.
…
We might be able to draw some conclusions at the end of the season,” said Kim Harmon, the head football physician at Washington and leader of a conference oversight group that studies student-athlete health issues
“But in three years we’ll have a lot better understanding. You need big numbers.”
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Sounds like Comcast would move out of state subscribers to a sports tier. Seems they would treat the SEC network differently in out of state. Not sure how much it matters from a revenue standpoint but thought that was interesting.
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https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2018/08/btn_reaches_agreement_with_com.html
Big Ten fans from all around the country got great news on Friday night.
BTN announced that it has agreed to a deal with Comcast, which will allow subscribers to be able to watch Big Ten games against just a few days before the start of the 2018 season.
It will also allow fans in those areas to watch the games on FS1, which is important because this is the second year of the Big Ten’s deal with Fox.
Comcast is the main provider for most of the markets that include a Big Ten team. Ohio State is one of only four teams in the conference where Comcast is not the main cable provider.
…
Comcast announced back in April that it was dropping BTN for customers living in markets outside of the Big Ten. It said Friday that fans in those markets will have opportunities to get BTN on Comcast’s Sports and Entertainment Package “in the coming months.”
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nascar/2018/08/24/eli-lilly-pulls-sponsorship-conor-daly-nascar-ride-road-america-racial-slur-derek-daly/1089814002/
Wow. A clear sign the pendulum has swung too far. A NASCAR driver lost the sponsor for his race car this week (he’s not a regular) because his father (a famous racer) said the n-word in the early 80s during a radio interview. I get that people don’t want controversy tied to their brand, but this seems extreme.
For context, the father is Irish and was new to the US at the time and he claims that word didn’t carry the same negative connotations in Ireland at the time.
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I guess realizing this late is better than never!
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I think most people know it’s gone too far in some ways and places, but this is the most blatant example I’ve seen lately. Punishing an adult for something his parent said over 35 years ago? The sins of the father …
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Insane.
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What I find most disconcerting, scary what have you. WHO is pouring over all these old tapes, articles, etc?.WHO has the time to sift through all this?
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The first story I read about this specific case said the old interview had recently come to light but didn’t say how. Upon a little research, it turns out that last week an old radio broadcaster (voice for the Indy Colts) was retelling a story from the 80s and repeated the n-word in telling the story. He “resigned” over the weekend and now the father, who was a racing analyst in Indy, has also lost his job in addition to his son losing a one-race sponsor.
So it’s not like someone went digging through the archives in this case.
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Click to access FBS.pdf
Well, it’s official. Sort of. The NCAA record book lists UCF’s national title on page 115. The Colley Matrix, which was part of the BCS, awarded its title to UCF last year and not AL (but then it gave it to AL the previous year instead of Clemson). The record book now lists pretty much every poll system and their annual champions.
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In 1970, three different organizations rated Nebraska, Ohio State and Texas as National Champion. Each school claims that championship today. Why begrudge UCF their moment of glory?
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I am all for UCF making their title claim. It would be different if they made the CFP and lost (as with 2016 AL) but any undefeated team that the CFP leaves out has a decent claim IMO.
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https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ncaaf/asu/2018/08/24/asu-coach-herm-edwards-incorporate-analytics-making-decisions/1086496002/
ASU will be using analytics to help with critical decisions like 4th and short. Herm Edwards thinks everyone will eventually be doing so.
Brace yourself, Sun Devil fans. Something very similar to that scenario could happen this season because Edwards and his staff are embracing quantitative analysis designed to give ASU its best chance to win.
And analytics might advise going for the first down in the above scenario. If so, Edwards might be willing to follow the numbers.
“We’ve been practicing it and looking it and seeing how it works,” Edwards said. “I think everybody is going to it. It’s just, how much do you believe?”
…
Critical call decisions are defined as fourth downs, points after touchdowns and kickoffs. What EdjSports and other companies have found is that fourth downs are packed with opportunities. Coaches often pass on those opportunities because it’s how they’ve learned the game, and they often fear the downside of failure more than they embrace the possibility of success.
…
“Is it always going to work?” Edwards said. “No, but it means you put the team in the best possible situation to win a football game.”
EdjSports and other analytics firms can’t be there on game days for clients, nor are college and pro teams allowed to use a computer to crunch numbers during games. The companies run years of empirical data through a computer model that can simulate thousands of games with adjustments made for teams’ strengths and weaknesses, as well as decisions made by coaches.
Teams can use the data to create charts and graphs that can be used on game day. So when Edwards is faced with a critical decision, he conceivably could have an assistant in the coaches’ booth look at what the chart suggests he do.
Edwards expects most other schools will be doing the same thing in the coming years, and networks broadcasting games could start to use graphics that give fans the odds of various decisions working. Sort of like what happens in televised poker games.
Edwards won’t always go by what the charts and graphs upstairs suggest, however. You can never take “the gut” out of making decisions, he said, and specific matchups, for instance, might dictate going against the numbers.
“You can look at a game and say, ‘We can’t block that guy. I know what this thing says, but we’re punting,’ ” he said.
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The Pac-8 expanded 40 years ago by adding UA and ASU. This article looks back at how rough that process was from the POV of the Pac-8’s point man for the expansion. The piece is lengthy but interesting. UA really wanted in for academic reasons while ASU was more concerned about hurting their football team and needed convincing to join. UW and Stanford were against inviting them but USC threatened to leave the Pac-8 if they weren’t invited.
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Jon Wilner discusses expansion with former P10 commissioner Tom Hansen in a 30 minute podcast. They discuss how expansion efforts in other conferences impacted the P10, the attempt to add Texas in the 90s, the 1984 Supreme Court decision that led to expansion, BYU, the lack of other P12 candidates, an attempt at a P16 and more.
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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24513084/in-step-abolition-one-done-rule-basketball-stakeholders-align-support-usa-basketball
The one and done rule is about to end. The NBA, NBAPA, NCAA and USA Basketball will all work together to find and train the top HS players.
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https://bigten.org/documents/2018/8/29//FUTURE_FOOTBALL_SCHEDULES_2022_25.pdf?id=6057
The B10 released the football schedules for 2022-25. The 18 year plan we’ve suspected is no longer applicable. They seem to have dropped the tiers for parity-based scheduling. This results in OSU and MI (and WI and NE) getting screwed as PSU gets IL, MSU gets MN and IA gets RU.
This must be the scheduling change NE’s AD hinted at over summer, but I don’t think it’s what he intended.
Current locked pairs (2016-2021):
OSU/NE
MI/WI
PSU/IA
MSU/NW
UMD/MN
RU/IL
IN/PU
New locked pairs (2022-2027):
OSU/WI
MI/NE
PSU/IL
MSU/MN
UMD/NW
RU/IA
IN/PU
OSU by years:
WI + IA, NW
WI + PU, MN
WI + NE, IL
Repeat
OSU still has the same tiers (NE, WI, IA / NW, MN, IL / PU). So does MI. In fact, they have the same schedules except for swapping NE/WI and IL/NW.
MI by years:
NE + IA, IL
NE + PU, MN
NE + WI, NW
Repeat
But a huge advantage shows up for PSU with IL as a locked opponent. Essentially they replaced NE with IL in their tier.
PSU by years:
IL + PU, MN
IL + IA, NW
IL + WI, NE
Repeat
MSU had the advantage before of being tier 2 for scheduling purposes, so they would’ve seen NW, MN and IL more than WI, NE and IA. That continues for them except with IA and PU swapping.
MSU by years:
MN + WI, IL
MN + NE, IA
MN + PU, NW
Repeat
The big winner is IA getting away from the top of the East and locking in RU instead.
I thought the whole point of their plan was to get more big games for TV. Why would they abandon that plan so early and yet keep the uneven play that a locked opponent delivers?
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http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-illinois-northwestern-future-big-ten-schedules-20180829-story.html
Teddy Greenstein is on the case.
After scrapping Legends and Leaders in favor of geographic divisions, league athletic directors opted for competitively based crossovers for schedules for the first six-year block (2016-21). That’s why Illinois plays Rutgers every year through 2021 and Northwestern draws Michigan State. The only permanently protected East-West crossover is Indiana-Purdue.
The league ADs decided that for the next six-year schedule block (2022-27), the crossovers should be randomly assigned. The other ones: Nebraska-Michigan, Wisconsin-Ohio State, Iowa-Rutgers and Minnesota-Michigan State.
“The prevailing mood,” said Big Ten Associate Commissioner Mike McComiskey, “was that the group didn’t want us picking who was going to be good that far out; you don’t know.”
When administrators met in Rosemont for spring meetings, two jars were placed on a table and school names were pulled from each until the six new crossover matchups were selected.
“It was witnessed by everyone who wanted to witness it,” McComiskey told the Tribune.
Pure coincidence that OSU/WI and MI/NE got paired. Uh huh. I believe that. There’s a 3% chance that’s true.
The new pairings also mess up the home/away rotations.
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The outcome of any random draw would have the same 3% probability (assuming your arithmetic is right). In general, most events have near zero probability before hand, except, of course for the outcome of the Ohio State/Rutgers game.
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That’s all true but this particular outcome looks bad and is objectively bad in terms of competition. If they wanted to eliminate the concept of tiers they still could have made informed choices rather than a random draw. They can claim that you can’t predict who will be good that far in advance but you can to a large extent. More importantly, they could have dropped the concept of locking one opponent for 6 straight years. It’s not like anyone was clamoring for more PSU/IL or IA/RU games.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24523066/college-football-playoff-releases-dates-cotton-bowl-fiesta-bowl-peach-bowl-2026
The dates for the NY6 games through 2025-26 have been set.
2020-21
Wednesday, Dec. 30: Cotton Bowl
Friday, Jan. 1: Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl Game semifinal, Sugar Bowl semifinal
Saturday, Jan. 2: Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl
Monday, Jan. 11: CFP National Championship (Miami)
2021-22
Thursday, Dec. 30: Peach Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31: Cotton Bowl semifinal, Orange Bowl semifinal
Saturday, Jan. 1: Fiesta Bowl, Rose Bowl Game, Sugar Bowl
Monday, Jan. 10: CFP National Championship (Indianapolis)
2022-23
Friday, Dec. 30: Orange Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 31: Fiesta Bowl semifinal, Peach Bowl semifinal
Monday Jan. 2: Cotton Bowl, Rose Bowl Game, Sugar Bowl
Monday, Jan. 9: CFP National Championship (Los Angeles)
2023-24
Friday, Dec. 29: Peach Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 30: Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl
Monday, Jan. 1: Cotton Bowl, Rose Bowl Game semifinal, Sugar Bowl semifinal
Monday, Jan. 8: CFP National Championship (Houston)
2024-25
Saturday, Dec. 28: Peach Bowl, Cotton Bowl semifinal, Orange Bowl semifinal
Monday, Dec. 30: Fiesta Bowl
Wednesday, Jan. 1: Rose Bowl Game, Sugar Bowl
Monday, Jan. 6: CFP National Championship (site TBD)
2025-26
Saturday, Dec. 27: Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl semifinal, Peach Bowl semifinal
Tuesday, Dec. 30: Orange Bowl
Thursday, Jan. 1: Rose Bowl Game, Sugar Bowl
Monday, Jan. 5: CFP National Championship (site TBD)
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-expect-college-footballs-elite-programs-to-stop-hogging-all-the-playoff-spots/
Don’t expect the top football programs to stop dominating the CFP any time soon.
… College football has always been a plutocracy, but recently it has concentrated even more of its spoils among an even smaller group of schools.
We can see this trend playing out in a number of different ways. For one thing, it’s been harder for less-heralded teams to break into the top of the national rankings since the playoff began.
…
In other words, the College Football Playoff is getting more exclusive — despite its supposed intentions to give more teams a chance to “prove it on the field” (rather than in a computer model). A greater share of playoff berths is going to the most talented teams than would have been the case in years past.
Now, maybe that’s an artifact of how teams are distributed in conferences nowadays, or how they choose to schedule their games. But even in terms of schedule-adjusted performance, the current top programs are finding it easier to maintain their elite status.
…
And from the mid-2000s up until a few years ago, there was only a moderate relationship between a team’s existing level of performance and the quality of recruits it was hauling in. In other words, even teams coming off mediocre-to-poor seasons had some access to the sport’s top high school players.
But ever since the playoff era began, elite programs have begun exerting more influence on recruits than before. The correlation between Elo and recruiting power in 2015 (0.562) was the highest it had been in at least a decade.
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This is an argument for eliminating the playoff system and returning to the old bowl system. The current system benefits only a dozen or so schools. Some former power houses (Nebraska? Notre Dame? Southern Cal? Texas?) might never again compete for the national champioship. The other hundred plus D I programs were better off under the bowl system. If conferences are interested in competitive balance among their members, they might wish to shut down the playoffs, as if that were possible.
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I’m all in favor of dropping the CFP but it might help to start by not doing the CFP rankings until the season ends. Once the committee officially ranks teams they often fall into the AP poll trap of not wanting to move teams around based on each week’s games. Perhaps they could just publish a combined computer ranking until CCG weekend and then only have the committee do the final rankings. I think when they hear teams ranked high week after week they default to assuming that’s correct rather than truly evaluating things anew every week.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/08/95885/survey-ranks-ohio-state-second-most-hated-college-football-team
Another football poll the B10 dominates. 1000 fans were asked who is their most-hated team in CFB. It’s basically a sorted list of bluebloods.
1. AL – 16%
2. OSU – 12%
3. ND – 10%
4. PSU – 7%
5. MI – 6%
6. USC – 4%
7. UT – 3%
8. OU – 2%
9. NE – 2%
Other – 38%
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https://www.wsj.com/articles/college-footballs-growing-problem-empty-seats-1535634001
It’s behind a paywall, but the article discusses actual versus reported attendance in CFB.
College football has an attendance problem. Average announced attendance in football’s top division dropped for the fourth consecutive year last year, declining 7.6% in four years. But schools’ internal records show that the sport’s attendance woes go far beyond that.
The average count of tickets scanned at home games—the number of fans who actually show up—is about 71% of the attendance you see in a box score, according to data from the 2017 season collected by The Wall Street Journal. In the Mid-American Conference, with less-prominent programs like Central Michigan and Toledo, teams’ scanned attendance numbers were 45% of announced attendance.
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http://www.startribune.com/how-plunging-ticket-sales-have-changed-gophers-sports/491766811/
On a related note, this story looks at the impact of dropping ticket sales at MN.
The article includes a graphic showing the change in ticket revenue for all the public B10 schools:
RU +23%
UMD +14%
MSU +11%
OSU +10%
IA +9%
IN +6%
WI +4%
MI +4%
PSU -7%
NE -8%
IL -25%
MN -28%
PU -36%
Obviously winning is a huge factor in this. So is joining the B10.
Excerpt:
In three years, ticket revenue from Gophers sports fell by $8 million — a 28 percent drop — to $20.5 million in 2017, according to the most recent accounting. Most of the decline occurred in football, men’s basketball and men’s hockey, the three sports the U counts on to help fund the entire athletic department.
…
Ticket sales have long been a top revenue stream for Gophers sports, and the escalating costs of running an athletic department make it more essential than ever to fill those seats. “We need ticket sales to pick up for us,” Coyle said. “Ticket sales is the lifeline of your program, and we need to pay attention.”
…
“Every university, every athletic department, every conference is talking about this at the highest levels,” said Mike Wierzbicki, the Gophers’ assistant athletic director for fan development. “People see a marquee game in prime time on TV and think everything’s perfect. But there’s a lot more to it.”
With his department’s budget set at $121 million for the coming year, Coyle is overseeing changes designed to get more paying customers through the doors. Last year, the U began placing greater emphasis on courting groups and businesses, and it has cut prices for some football and men’s hockey tickets. Ryan Dillon, assistant athletic director for ticket sales and service, said the new approach has boosted ticket revenue by 1 percent in 2018.
…
Coyle said the department’s fundraising has reached record levels, so the slump in ticket revenue has not caused immediate financial harm. But a continued decline could hurt future budgets, and dwindling attendance will dampen the atmosphere at games. Though Coyle acknowledged that “we need to win in those revenue sports” to stimulate demand, the problem is more complicated than that.
With nearly every game on TV, it’s far easier and cheaper to watch from the couch. Big screens have enhanced the home viewing experience, and cellphones and other portable devices allow viewing on the go. Game times that are inconvenient or announced only a few days in advance add to the hassle factor, as do family schedules crammed with youth sports and activities.
“The everyday life of a consumer is far different than it was 15 or 20 years ago,” Wierzbicki said. “We have to provide them something that’s different. We have to wow them to the extent they’re willing to put on a coat, get in the car and do things that aren’t as easy as sitting on the couch. That’s the challenge.”
…
But Dillon and Wierzbicki said their priority is to push ticket revenue higher, which requires other tactics. To entice fans to spend more, the U has introduced the Gopher Loyalty Program, giving ticket buyers exclusive activities such as attending band practice, meeting with Coyle over coffee or watching a movie on the big screen at TCF Bank Stadium. Those who spend more get to choose more activities from a list that now exceeds 170 experiences.
“To drive revenue, we need to ask, ‘What is the value of being a season-ticket holder?’ It needs to be more than just a ticket,” Wierzbicki said.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24523311/michigan-wolverines-notre-dame-fighting-irish-college-football-history
A look at the petty history between ND and UM.
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Several influential Maryland donors are trying to persuade the University Board of Regents to retain D.J. Durkin as Terrapin football coach: http://www.dbknews.com/2018/08/31/maryland-football-scandal-dj-durkin-donors-jordan-mcnair-culture/
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That’s a bad look (much as Urban Meyer continuing to defend himself on Twitter). At least wait for the investigation to end before chiming in so you can pretend to be informed.
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https://deadline.com/2018/08/nfl-tv-rights-near-inflection-point-tech-giants-ratings-streaming-1202454753/
The value of NFL rights are a key indicator for CFB, especially since they come up in 2022 which is just before the B10 in 2023 and others (P12 – 2024, SEC on CBS – 2024, B12 – 2025).
Brian Rolapp, the NFL’s Chief Business and Media Officer, called the runup to 2022 an “inflection point” for the league’s lucrative TV rights, with the current broadcast deals expiring and tech giants likely to flex their financial might.
Even so, he said the NFL is taking a wait-and-see approach to dealmaking with Silicon Valley, primarily because of streaming capacity concerns.
…
Rich Greenfield, an analyst with BTIG and a noted critic of the traditional TV bundle, teed up the question of the hour as he shared the stage with Rolapp. “When do we see one of this big tech companies do to sports what they’re doing right now to traditional entertainment?” he asked.
“Our entire model is about reach,” Rolapp said. “Traditionally, broadcast television was the best way to achieve that.” Rolapp said he has “yet to see” a tech company pull off a true broadcast-scale event, especially with pockets of intense devotion, where a Philadelphia Eagles or Seattle Seahawks game can command a massive share in the local market via CBS, Fox or NBC.
“But these digital companies are working hard on reach,” he said.
…
He was asked, however, about declining ratings over the past couple of seasons. “There’s no fear, but a healthy paranoia” in the league office, he said. “Only the paranoid survive.”
Expounding on the current view of ratings, Rolapp said: “There are a lot of things that go into ratings. Secular changes in television is one. Whether big markets don’t perform” due to weak teams is another factor. “There are things we can control and things we can’t control,” he added.
The NFL has spent the past five years looking for ways to “supplement” its reach model, Rolapp said.
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The NFL may be facing some special problems – related to the kneeling issue. In addition to ratings drops, the favorable ratings of the NFL have dropped dramatically. If that does not turn around, sponsors may start to have second thoughts and the contract will go down. Billions are at stake. http://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/354365-poll-nfl-drops-as-favorite-us-sport
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CFB has some of its own issues – players dying, coaches misbehaving, players not being paid, etc. Add in that CFB is dependent on fans donating money so approval means even more.
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…“players —- being paid,”…
There, fixed that for ya.
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Without getting political, I think it’s relevant here that Betsy DeVos and the DoEd are preparing new rules for how colleges and universities investigate sexual assaults. I’m linking a NYT articles because they were the first to report it. Please feel free to find a conservative source if the NYT bugs you (here’s a piece from the Washington Times – https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/aug/29/betsy-devos-propose-campus-sexual-misconduct-rules/).
Education Secretary Betsy DeVos is preparing new policies on campus sexual misconduct that would bolster the rights of students accused of assault, harassment or rape, reduce liability for institutions of higher education and encourage schools to provide more support for victims.
The proposed rules, obtained by The New York Times, narrow the definition of sexual harassment, holding schools accountable only for formal complaints filed through proper authorities and for conduct said to have occurred on their campuses. They would also establish a higher legal standard to determine whether schools improperly addressed complaints.
…
… But for several years, higher education administrators have maintained that sexual misconduct rules pressed by the Obama administration unnecessarily burdened them with bureaucratic mandates that had little to do with assault or harassment, and men’s rights groups have said the accused have had little recourse.
Unlike the Obama administration’s guidance documents, the Trump administration’s new rules will have the force of law and can go into force without an act of Congress, after a public comment period.
Liz Hill, an Education Department spokeswoman, said on Wednesday that the department was “in the midst of a deliberative process.” She added that any information obtained by The Times “is premature and speculative, and therefore, we have no comment.”
Last fall, Ms. DeVos rescinded a 2011 letter prepared by the Obama administration that outlined the responsibilities of schools and colleges that receive federal funding to address episodes of sexual misconduct. Victims rights groups praised the Obama-era guidelines for aggressively holding schools accountable for complaints of sexual harassment, assault and rape that they said had often been played down or ignored. But critics contended that too often they trampled due-process rights for accused students.
…
The department’s proposal would preserve much of the law that protects against sex discrimination, called Title IX, which for the past two decades has extended beyond gender-specific discrimination to include sexual misconduct as a form of denying students access to an education. But for what appears to be the first time, the federal government would go beyond guidance and recommendations to codify how it defines sexual harassment in the nation’s schools and the steps institutions are legally required to take to address it.
They could also be revised before they are formally published.
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The Title IX administrators at almost all colleges are notorious for running kangaroo courts that trample on the rights of the accused. They often recruit accusers and write the complaint for them. Many accused have won significant court judgements against colleges and their administrators for these abuses.
Sexual harassment is a serious crime that should be tried in the courts. Secret administrative proceedings without any semblance of due process or even simple fairness are not the way to handle such crimes.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2018/08/31/cutting-cord-may-not-save-you-money-but-way-better-tv-experience/1149581002/
Cutting the cord won’t save you money but plenty of people keep doing it.
It’s great, but here’s the dirty little secret: You won’t save real money on ditching cable. But you will get a way better viewing experience.
Some 33 million people are expected to cut the cord this year, up from 27.1 million in 2017, according to researcher eMarketer.
But save money? Come on. The average costs for cable and satellite TV is between $85 to $100. The average price for internet is $60, Add the cost of Netflix ($10.99 to $13.99 for HD and 4K), Hulu ($11.99 without ads), Amazon Prime ($9.92 monthly) and even without TV service you’re at nearly $100 monthly. And that’s without adding the cost of an antenna for reception or a DVR for recording shows.
He’s giving totals of people that have cut the cord, not the number for just a year.
Here’s a better story about the number of cord cutters:
https://www.businessinsider.com/tv-cord-cutting-will-ramp-up-33-this-year-according-to-emarketer-2018-7
Total people who (will) have cut the cord by year:
2017 – 24.9M (9.8% of population)
2018 – 33.0M (12.9%)
2019 – 39.3M (15.2%)
2020 – 45.0M (17.3%)
2021 – 50.2M (19.1%)
2022 – 55.1M (20.8%)
It’s important to note that EMarketer’s figure for cord-cutters does not include those customers who cancel a traditional pay-TV subscription only to subscribe to a newer subscription-based digital service with a cable or satellite company, such as DirecTV NOW or Comcast’s Xfinity.
Still, overall, Emarketer estimates that 186.7 million adults in the US will watch traditional pay TV (cable, satellite, or telco) in 2018, which is down 3.8% over last year — and slightly higher than the 3.4% drop in 2017.
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These cable-cutting stories do not make any sense to me. How do the cord-cutters get Netflix or HBO or SHO or SciFi or ESPN or MLB, etc? None of the cable-based networks are broadcast. The only alternative to a cable company is DSL via the telephone company, or one of the two satellite companies. DSL is a low bandwidth service to begin with, and during peak user demand the bit rate sometimes falls below that required for streaming. DirectV and Dish provide much more content than any cable company, but you can easily spend $200 per month or more for their services. And bad weather, a heavy rain, stops their signals.
As to broadcast, that is limited to a half dozen or so stations in most communities, and the broadcast range for HD is only about 40 miles. You don’t have to get very far into the suburbs to lose the signal even with large antennas and signal boosting.
As far as I can see, cable-cutters suffer a radical reduction in the variety of TV/streaming shows or incur a large cost for satellite service.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-state-is-always-facing-high-expectations-scandal-or-not/
Who makes the most AP preseason polls in any sport?
1. TN WBB – 98%
2. OSU FB – 94%
3. UK MBB – 88%
4. OU FB – 87%
5t. USC FB – 84%
5t. UNC MBB – 84%
7. ND FB – 80%
8. TX WBB – 79%
9. UGA WBB – 76%
10t. AL FB – 75%
10t. TX FB – 75%
10t. UCLA MBB – 75%
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How far back does this go? I’m surprised not to see Connecticut women’s basketball listed, but lt didn’t become a national power until the mid-1990s. If this dates back to the late ’70s, when the first women’s poll began, Maryland may have nearly as high a percentage in WBB as UConn.
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From their footnote:
*In preseason polls since 1976-77 season for women’s basketball, 1961-62 for men’s basketball and 1950 for football.
The AP didn’t start having a preseason poll until 1950 in football.
Top teams by sport:
WBB
1. TN – 98% (41 of 42) – they missed out on the first poll, the first year of Pat Summitt’s 36 straight seasons with over 20 wins (they won only 16 in her first 2 seasons)
2. TX – 79% (33)
3. UGA – 76% (32)
4t. Stanford & UMD – 71% (30)
6. UConn – 67% (28)
7. LT – 64% (27)
8t. RU & PSU – 61% (25)
10t. Duke, UNC, LSU & Vandy – 55% (23)
MBB:
1. UK – 88% (50 of 57) – probably in NCAA trouble the other 7 years
2. UNC – 84% (48)
3. UCLA – 75% (43)
4. Duke – 84% (42)
5. KU – 72% (41)
6. UL – 70% (40)
7. AZ – 54% (31)
8t. IN & Syracuse- 53% (30)
10. MI – 45.6% (26)
11t. MSU & 3 others – 40% (23)
CFB:
1. OSU – 94% (65)
2. OU – 87% (60)
3. USC – 84% (58)
4. ND – 80% (55)
5t. AL & UT – 75% (52)
7. MI – 70% (48)
8t. NE & PSU – 65% (45)
10. TN – 59% (41)
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The final poll numbers are probably more meaningful, but what I want to see is the ratio of final polls to preseason polls. So I looked it up for football. 24 of the top 25 in number of preseason polls were also in the top 25 of total final polls, so those 24 made up my sample size.
2 schools made more final polls than preseason polls:
Clemson – 29/28
Miami – 32/31
1 made the same number: Auburn – 28/28
Over 95%: MI, NE, AR
90-95%: AL, LSU, IA
85-90%: WI, PSU, OU
80-85%: UF, UGA, TN, FSU, MSU
75-80%: TAMU, OSU, UT, USC
70-75%: UCLA, ND
65-70%: UW
Considering there is a lot more room to move down than up, those ratios aren’t too bad. They also don’t consider where you started (easy for teams in the 20s to drop out). And I didn’t compare the actual years, just the number of appearances in each poll.
MBB:
21 teams made both top 25s.
Again 2 schools made more final polls:
PU – 21/19
UMD – 21/20
2 made the same number:
Syracuse – 30
Villanova – 18
Over 95%: Duke, Marquette
90-95%: OSU, ND, UNC, Cincinnati, KU
85-90%: G’town, MSU, OU
80-85%: AZ, KU, UCLA, MI
75-80%: UL, UConn
70-75%: IN
Similar numbers to football.
WBB:
College Poll Archive doesn’t have final poll numbers for WBB like it does for CFB and MBB. The best I can do is NCAA tournament results. As a rough substitute, I’ll use 2nd round appearances. However, those numbers only work from 1986 on, so I have to only use those preseason polls.
23 of 25 teams made both top 25s.
No schools made more 2nd rounds than preseason polls.
2 made the same number:
TN – 34
ODU – 12
Over 95%: LT
90-95%: UConn, NCSU
85-90%: Baylor
80-85%: MS, Stanford, ND
75-80%: none
70-75%: Duke, UNC, TT, USC, LSU
65-70%: UGA, PSU, Auburn
60-65%: UVA, OSU, RU, VU, PU
55-60%: UMD, OU, UT
Obviously tourney results are a poor substitute for a final poll since one upset can knock you out.
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Storms in the heartland played havoc Saturday night. Nebraska’s opener with Akron will be played today, but Iowa State’s game with South Dakota State will not be made up, and ISU is hoping another school also lost a date — or never had a 12th game scheduled — on Oct. 20. If not, the Cyclones will play only 11 games this season, which could spell disaster for their bowl hopes barring dispensation from the NCAA. Here’s a statement from AD Jamie Pollard on the situation: https://www.facebook.com/IowaStateAthletics/photos/a.10152517856895445/10160848590860445/?type=3&theater.
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Nebraska announced last night that their game was cancelled for good. FS1 mistakenly claimed it would be played this morning but that was never true. It should have been played today, but Akron didn’t have hotel rooms and I’m guessing neither coach wanted a short week.
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Opening a week late hindered both ISU and Nebraska. The Cyclones lost at Iowa, while Colorado surprised the Cornhuskers in Lincoln.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/09/02/legal-sports-betting-mississippi-biloxi-casinos-sec
A look at the first weekend of games from Biloxi now that sports gambling is legal in Mississippi.
After all, Mississippi is the only state from the Southeast where this is legal for now. “They’re pouring in from Louisiana, Florida, Georgia and Alabama,” says Bobby Mahoney, a lifelong Biloxi resident …
…
No matter what ESPN contends with its commercial slogan, college football lives here. So much so that sports book managers in this state expect Saturdays, and not Sundays, to generate the most action this fall.
On the first of those busy Saturdays, the Beau Rivage and its seven ticket windows experienced a rush just before kickoff of the day’s first games, as more than 100 people formed a line snaking some 200 feet to the nearby craps tables.
…
Minutes later, Hall produces a figure from the four-hour morning madness leading up to 11 a.m., the total bets made during the biggest wave of legal wagering this state’s ever seen: 1,670 bets, or about 425 an hour.
“This is a start to football season the likes of what we have never seen before,” says Jay Rood, the vice president of race and sports for Vegas-based MGM, the parent company of the Beau Rivage. “SEC schools draw action.”
…
Seven of Biloxi’s eight casinos have opened a sports book, and they are the talk of the town. Signage along the Gulf Coast welcomes you to a place that is giddy about being able to offer legal betting on sports. And why shouldn’t it be? “Alabama and Mississippi, per capita, are the largest illegal betting states in the nation,” Sheridan says.
…
Biloxi is certainly a part of the $7 billion-plus illegal sports gambling market in America.
…
But casino executives realize a truth: the sports book is not one of their best revenue streams. Slots and table games are the money-makers. Hall estimates the house takes in an average of $3 for every $100 bet at a sports book, but that number can greatly fluctuate. It’s not necessarily about turning a profit at the sports book alone, says Chett Harrison, the general manger of the Golden Nugget. “They come here and they eat and they drink and they might play a table game,” Harrison says. “We set ours up like a Buffalo Wild Wings.”
…
And that’s O.K. at the Hard Rock, where Schenk says they’ve seen a 15% uptick in foot traffic since opening their book.
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Some fun tidbits from yesterday:
1. Tulane clearly wants to join the B10. They punted in WF territory 7 times. 7!
2. Most B10 thing you’ll ever see:
3. The OSU fan in me can’t miss this:
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https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/09/02/which-conference-had-the-best-week-1/
Which P5 conference had the best week?
It’s a little unfair to judge with the Miami/LSU game tonight, but I don’t think the ACC can jump the SEC since Miami is a healthy favorite. I’ll give the B10 a tiny edge for not playing any I-AA games while the SEC had the best win (AU over UW). That’s also why I put the P12 above the B12.
Records in OOC games:
B10: 10-1 (2-1 vs P5; 10-1 vs I-A)
SEC: 12-1 (3-1 vs P5; 6-1 vs I-A; 6-0 vs I-AA)
ACC: 9-2 (0-2 vs P5; 4-2 vs I-A; 5-0 vs I-AA)
P12: 8-4 (1-2 vs P5; 7-4 vs I-A; 1-0 vs I-AA)
B12: 6-3 (1-2 vs P5; 2-2 vs I-A; 4-1 vs I-AA)
* B10 and ACC each have/had 1 conference game
** B10 and B12 each had a game cancelled (B10 vs I-A; B12 vs I-AA)
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Alan,
The LSU faithful have to be excited about this performance. It looks like you might have finally found a QB to go with all that other talent.
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Geaux Tigers. One of my daughters-in-law was born in Louisiana and is a huge LSU fan. My son went to FSU, so there is a bit of conflict there.
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Brian – thanks to Ohio State for sending us Joe Burrow. I thought the defense would be special. They looked great last night! Hopefully, Chaisson will be ok. The o-line needs some work, but Brosette is running very strong. Kicking lost us 2 games last season. The kicking game looks much improved. I think we’ll do better than all the predictions of 7-5 and 5th in the SECW.
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You can thank us by beating Alabama.
I see no reason LSU can’t be at least 3rd in the West.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24567822/illinois-wr-mike-dudek-suffers-third-season-ending-injury
Sad news. Illinois WR Mike Dudek suffered a season-ending knee injury Saturday. This is the third time he’s suffered a major knee injury.
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https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. OSU +1
5. WI -1
6. OU +1
7. AU +2
8. ND +4
9. UW -3
10. Stanford +3
13. PSU -3
15. MSU -4
21. MI -7
Big movers:
11. LSU +14
22. Miami -14
By conference:
ACC – 2, 12, 22
B10 – 4, 5, 13, 15, 21
B12 – 6, 14, 16
P12 – 9, 10, 17, 23
SEC – 1, 3, 7, 11, 18, 24, 25
Other – 8, 19, 20
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches Poll (very similar):
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA +1
4. OSU -1
5. OU
6. WI +1
7. AU +3
8. ND +3
9. Stanford +4
10. PSU -1
13. MSU -1
22. MI -8
Big movers:
15. LSU +9
21. Miami -13
By conference:
ACC – 2, 14, 21
B10 – 4, 6, 10, 13, 22
B12 – 5, 16, 17, 23
P12 – 9, 11, 12
SEC – 1, 3, 7, 15, 18, 24, 25
Other – 8, 19, 20
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http://www.winsipedia.com/ranking/all-time-wins
We should see some history (again) this Saturday. OSU should beat Rutgers to become the second I-A school with 900 official victories. Both OSU and ND have crossed that threshold on the field but were forced to vacate wins by the NCAA (12 for OSU from 2010, 21 for ND from 2012-13).
Official win totals:
1. Michigan – 943
2. Ohio State – 899
3. Texas – 898 (has a tough schedule after Tulsa this weekend so may take a while)
4. Nebraska – 893 (1 easy win cancelled, 5 tough road games, may not get there this season)
5. Alabama – 892 (@LSU in November would be their first chance)
6. Notre Dame – 887 (would have to go undefeated to get there this season)
7. Oklahoma – 885 (next year)
8. Penn State – 879 (next year)
9. USC – 835
10. Tennessee – 833
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Mission accomplished.
New official win totals:
1. Michigan – 944
2. Ohio State – 900
3. Texas – 899 (has a tough schedule so #900 may take a while)
4t. Nebraska – 893 (1 easy win cancelled, 5 tough road games, may not get there this season)
4t. Alabama – 893
6. Notre Dame – 888
7. Oklahoma – 886
8. Penn State – 880
9. USC – 835
10. Tennessee – 834
AL may catch UT this year.
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Some other history from yesterday:
* KU finally won a road game after 46 straight losses. That’s since 2009.
* UK beat UF after losing to them 31 straight times. That’s not a record (Navy lost to ND 43 straight times) but it is tied for the 4th longest losing streak ever and was the longest active streak.
43 – ND over Navy
36 – NE over KU
32 – OU over KSU
31 – UF over UK, PSU over Temple (not annual)
Longest active streaks now:
24 – TAMU over TCU (last played in 2001)
22 – OSU over IN, MI over IN, AL over Vanderbilt (not annual), LSU over ULL (not annual)
Ah, the glorious 1987 season for IN when they beat both OSU and MI on their way to an 8-3 regular season. IN beat OSU again in 1988.
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Was that back when Indiana was running the Double Elephant?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/09/04/u-s-fraternities-opt-stricter-alcohol-policy-wake-deaths/1196674002/
Hopefully this helps.
Hundreds of fraternity houses across the U.S. will no longer allow frat members to serve hard liquor, according to a self-governing policy announced Tuesday in the wake of growing outrage over alcohol-related hazing deaths.
The North-American Interfraternity Conference (NIC) policy effectively means that most of the nation’s fraternities cannot serve strong booze unless it is served by a licensed third-party vendor.
“At their core, fraternities are about brotherhood, personal development and providing a community of support,” Judson Horras, CEO and president of the NIC, said in a statement. “Alcohol abuse and its serious consequences endanger this very purpose. This action shows fraternities’ clear commitment and leadership to further their focus on the safety of members.”
The NIC is an umbrella organization for fraternities. The group said the new policy was reached in a near-unanimous vote and must be adopted by more than 6,100 of its chapters by September 2019. Those chapters are located on 800 campuses throughout the country.
Chapters have autonomy to set their own policies and rules, but the NIC has oversight over some broader policies, such as how the fraternities must implement alcohol rules at parties.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2018/09/06/acc-tournament-to-return-to-dc-brooklyn-in-2021-22/37734597/
Despite the power of Tobacco Road, the ACC tourney will be going back to DC and Brooklyn.
Commissioner John Swofford said Thursday that the tournament will be played in Washington in 2021 and in Brooklyn in 2022.
…
Swofford says the locations are “tremendously meaningful to the ACC, our players, coaches, alumni and fans.”
The ACC held its tournament in Washington in 2005 and in 2016, and earlier this year wrapped up a two-year run at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
Attendance:
2014 – 140,143 (Greensboro)
2015 – 141,159 (Greensboro)
2016 – 125,142 (DC)
2017 – 115,802* (Brooklyn)
2018 – 117,854* (Brooklyn)
* In Brooklyn they counted the 2nd round and quarterfinal attendance just once per day while they counted it twice each day the other years, so for Brooklyn I doubled the listed attendance on both of those days to make it equivalent (+35,500 each year roughly).
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. OSU
5. OU
6. WI
7. AU
8. ND
9. Stanford
10. PSU
22. MI
24. MSU
Big movers:
19. OkSU +4
24. MSU -11
By conference:
ACC – 2, 11, 20
B10 – 4, 6, 10, 22, 24
B12 – 5, 14, 15, 19
P12 – 9, 12, 21, 23, 25
SEC – 1, 3, 7, 13, 16
Other – 8, 17, 18
I think the poll in underreactive this early. Clemson should’ve been punished for their close game against TAMU. MSU probably should’ve dropped out of the poll, not stayed ahead of ASU.
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https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. OSU
5. OU +1
6. WI -1
7. AU
8. ND
9. Stanford +1
10. UW -1
11. PSU +2
19. MI +2
25. MSU -10
Big movers:
17. Boise, 20. OR, 23 OkSU +3
25. MSU -10
By conference:
ACC – 2, 13, 21
B10 – 4, 6, 11, 19, 25
B12 – 5, 14, 15, 24
P12 – 9, 10, 20, 22, 23
SEC – 1, 3, 7, 12, 16
Other – 8, 17, 18
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The word at Iowa State is…the University of Incarnate Word. The San Antonio school from the Southland Conference will play the Cyclones in Ames Dec. 1. (Perhaps Nebraska, whose men’s basketball team lost to UIW a few years back, wanted nothing to do with the Cardinals.) Should ISU somehow qualify for the Big 12 championship game that day or UIW qualifies for the FCS playoffs (it’s already played at New Mexico and North Texas), the game will not be played. More information: https://cyclones.com/news/2018/9/12/football-iowa-state-to-host-incarnate-word-on-dec-1.aspx
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GEAUX TIGERS!
Two wins against top 10 teams away from Tiger Stadium.
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Now beat Bama.
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Well, I think that it now is official. Under the inspiring leadership of third year head coach Chris Ash, Rutgers is now clearly the worst P5 team in the country after getting blown out by Kansas. Ash has shown himself to be totally unable to “coach up” lower ranked recruits and unable to get higher rated recruits. I think that in this years class, RU has not gotten a commitment from a single top 15 player in NJ. They may have one or two ranked between 15 and 20. Unlike FL, TX, GA, etc., NJ does not have a couple of dozen four stars. The number 15 player in NJ is probably a solid (but not top ranked) three star.
NJ produces the players, but they don’t stay home. Saquon Barkley was an RU commit. So was Jonathan Taylor at Wisconsin. The NFL is full of stars from NJ. The only ones who went to RU played under Greg Schiano.
Last year Ash got a 5 year ten million dollar renewal. Obviously Rutgers cannot fire him and buy out his contract until they get a full share from the B1G. There is every reason to expect another three or four years of absolutely miserable football out of RU.
Personally, I had a very tough weekend, rooting for RU, FSU and Wisconsin. Yuch.
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Yesterday did not look good. Having to play the FR QB didn’t help, but KU doesn’t blow out anyone.
Right now RU has the #15 and #19 recruits from NJ in 2019 according to 247 (both high 3*). Also #22, 23, 26, 27, 32, 33, 35 and 44 (all 3*) from the top 50. The class’s average rating is almost exactly the same as last year’s so far and include 4 players in the top 1000 (none in top 700). RU does have the #2 player from MA and #9 from NY.
https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2017/10/rutgers_unveils_financial_plan_how_the_big_ten_is.html
RU has chosen to get paid more now at the expense of getting less later. I’m not sure when they will finally get a true full share. RU nominally would be a full share partner in 2020-21. They could use some of this extra money to buy out Ash, but I agree that is unlikely.
According to the university’s 10-year projections document in 2012, the Big Ten was expected to give Rutgers $11.2 million in 2017, $11.5 million in 2018, $14.9 million in 2019 and $19.3 million in 2020.
Rutgers’ new five-year projections plan shows a dramatic increase in those figures. The Big Ten is now expected to give Rutgers $12.6 million in 2017, $24.6 million in 2018, $27.1 million in 2019 and $29.4 million in 2020.
Since full-share schools are set to receive $51.1 million from the Big Ten this year, it’s fair to assume that conference-distribution number will only increase in 2021.
However, Rutgers won’t receive that much.
Rutgers’ first full-share check from the Big Ten is projected to be $44.5 million.
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According to 247, Rutgers highest ranked recruit is number 720 in the country. They have four recruits in the top 1000. The number 9 player in NY is a very low ranked three star. NJ has 8 ranked four stars, including one that is a very high 4 (an Alabama commit). Bama, PSU, and ND each have two of the top 8, with Michigan and tOSU having the other two.
There are enough players there to build a decent team, if the majority stayed in NJ every year.
Chris Ash was an assistant at tOSU. When he came over, he pretty much fired all of the coaches with NJ connections. He is trying to make up for that, but obviously has not.
By the way, the frosh quarterback, Artur Sitkowski, is the named savior. He now has seven interceptions in three games and three pick sixes. He played at IMG and by the end of his senior year was no longer the starter in high school. The kid who started ahead of him was a walk on at Minnesota (I think).
The situation at RU seems to getting worse, not better, on the field.
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Let’s not go declaring Rutgers champions of life until their Oct. 6 showdown with the Illini!
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Trick question: Who drew a larger crowd yesterday… the Blackhawks at the UC or the Bulls at Soldier Field?
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. OSU
5. OU
6. LSU
7. Stanford
8. ND
9. PSU
10. VT
16. WI
21. MI
23. MSU
Big movers:
6. LSU +7
16. WI -10
By conference:
ACC – 2, 10, 20, 25
B10 – 4, 9, 16, 21, 23
B12 – 5, 13, 15, 17
P12 – 7, 12, 19
SEC – 1, 3, 6, 11, 14, 22
Other – 8, 18, 24
Terrible weekend for the B10. At least OSU won the marquee game.
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https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. Clemson
4. OSU
5. OU
6. LSU
7. Stanford
8. ND
9. AU
10t. PSU
10t. UW
18. WI
19. MI
24. MSU
Big movers:
15. OkSU +9
18. WI -12
By conference:
ACC – 3, 13, 21, 23
B10 – 4, 10, 18, 19, 24
B12 – 5, 12, 15, 17
P12 – 7, 10, 20
SEC – 1, 2, 6, 9, 14, 22
Other – 8, 16, 25
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And as it often does, Maryland laid an egg against a program with inferior resources. With the report on the McNair tragedy due soon, don’t be surprised if the Board of Regents order a housecleaning of coach Durkin, AD Evans and president Loh. I’m not sure he deserves a dismissal, but he’s nearing retirement age, so College Park may as well start anew across the board once this season ends (likely without a bowl bid).
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This loss makes the win over Texas all the more puzzling, especially since Texas beat USC handily.
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It’s an enigmatic program, which has led to cynicism. The stadium was less than half full despite a 2-0 record and a second straight win over Texas. Whomever has the cojones to take that job, assuming Durkin or interim HC Canada don’t return — and I think the Board of Regents will demand not only a new coach, but a new AD and president, too — had better show he can change the mindset of a fanbase infamous for its “you suck” attitude.
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vp81955, is the Maryland fan base also have an attitude regarding basketball? I hope not.
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Under Turgeon, they’re starting to. It must be said in fairness that Maryland men’s basketball’s been in sort of a rut for a dozen years (the last few seasons under Gary Williams and the entire Turgeon regime — he came to College Park to coach in ACC, not the Big Ten, though he has a Big 8/Big 12 background at Kansas and Texas A&M). People like him as a person, but the Terps hadn’t yet had a breakout season to make the nation take notice, and College Park is getting restless.
You didn’t ask about the women’s program, but Brenda Frese is far more popular with Terp fans as the Big Ten tries to catch up with Maryland. A national title and three trips to the Final Four will do that for you.
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I took for granted that the Womens’ bball was the highlight of the sport scene at UMd.
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Not the only highlight by any means — both lacrosse teams and field hockey are powers, and men’s soccer remains popular despite a recent postseason rut. But women’s basketball easily is the most successful national sport in Terrapin country, and among its fan base, Maryland probably has one of the highest percentages of women’s hoops support in the Big Ten compared to men’s play. The only rivals appear to be Ohio State, Michigan State and Purdue (all of which have reached the Final Four and in Purdue’s case won, albeit back in 1999), Rutgers (a longtime Terp non-conference rival dating back to when Chris Weller coached the Terps) and Penn State (which has a Final Four women’s appearance but has a relatively high comparative percentage because its men’s program is traditionally so lackluster, overshadowed by wrestling).
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. AL
2. Clemson
3. UGA
4. OSU
5. OU
6. LSU
7. Stanford
8. ND
9. PSU
10. AU +1
13. WI +3
15. MI +6
18. MSU +5
Big movers:
22. UT +19
24. VT -14
By conference:
ACC – 2, 16, 23, 24
B10 – 4, 9, 13, 15, 18
B12 – 5, 12, 21, 22
P12 – 7, 11, 20
SEC – 1, 3, 6, 10, 17, 19
Other – 8, 14, 25
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https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. Clemson
4. OSU
5. LSU +1
6. OU -1
7. Stanford
8. ND
9. PSU +1
10. AU -1
14. MI +5
15. WI +3
21. MSU +3
Big movers:
17. UK +9
NR. VT -13
By conference:
ACC – 3, 16, 22
B10 – 4, 9, 14, 15, 21
B12 – 6, 12, 18, 25
P12 – 7, 11, 19, 24
SEC – 1, 2, 5, 10, 17, 23
Other – 8, 13, 20
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The Maryland mystery deepens: Texas beats TCU.
Why isn’t MD ranked if UT is 22?
And I would have dropped Oklahoma at least 5 ranks for that fiasco against Army.
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Because UMD lost badly to Temple only 2 weeks ago while UT is on a 3 game winning streak including beating ranked teams the last 2 weeks.
Texas is back!!!1!!1!
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Yes, Texas is back, and that is why Maryland should be in the top 25, at the bottom no doubt, but ranked nonetheless.
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Win ar Ann Arbor Oct. 6 (Maryland is off this week) and the Terps probably will.
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You can’t look at just 1 game result. The voters have to balance the blowout loss to Temple just 2 weeks ago against a close win over UT before that. Meanwhile, UT has shown improvement and beaten 2 ranked teams (USC, TCU) as part of a 3 game winning streak.
UMD is receiving votes in both polls.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2018/09/27/eastern-michigan-violated-title-ix/1449456002/
A judge declared that EMU violated Title IX in deciding to cut 2 women’s teams (plus 2 men’s teams) and ordered EMU to stop.
In a strongly worded ruling, U.S. District Judge George Caram Steeh said “there is a clear showing that (Eastern is) in violation of Title IX.” He ordered the two sides to appear in his courtroom at the end of October to work out a plan to reinstate the tennis and softball teams.
…
“As we have stated previously, the decision to eliminate four sports programs was extremely difficult,” the university said in a statement posted on its website. “We initiated the action to reduce expenses in athletics consistent with strategic reductions across the university. These efforts are part of a comprehensive process to realign our budget to ensure our ability to continue to invest in key priority areas, such as high demand academic programs that meet the needs of today’s employers, and to modernize the facilities in which the programs are taught.
The suit was filed after Eastern cut a number of sports programs in an ongoing effort to trim its budget. Eastern argued its budget difficulties meant it had to make the cuts, an argument Steeh didn’t buy. The moves affected 58 male student-athletes and 25 female student-athletes, and will ultimately save approximately $2.4 million.
“The court finds that the financial burden on EMU is outweighed by the harm to Plaintiffs if the teams are not reinstated,” Steeh wrote. “Indeed, financial hardship is not a defense to a Title IX violation.”
…
According to forms submitted to the NCAA for the 2017 fiscal year, EMU had 10,417 female undergraduate students, making up 59.4 percent of the student population, with 7,124 male students, or 40 percent. However, in sports, 56.1 percent of its athletes are male, compared with 43.9 percent female. Title IX requires opportunities for male and female athletes to match student body demographics.
Steeh didn’t agree Eastern’s plan to solve a long-running disparity was actually happening.
“The actual numbers reveal a participation disparity that has lingered for at least fifteen years, with no evidence of a serious effort to address it. In light of this history, it is difficult for the court to credit EMU’s 2018 roster management plan as anything more than mere promises to expand its program … at some time in the future.'”
How can eliminating a lot more male slots than female slots violate Title IX? EMU will be closer to proportionality after the cuts than they were before. If the decision is that EMU’s lack of proportionality or progress towards proportionality is the violation, why is a move that makes progress towards that goal wrong? If they can’t afford the teams, they can’t afford the teams. This decision just means they’ll have to cut more men’s teams instead (or maybe cut some football expenses instead). Won’t that make the women’s teams more popular.
https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/03/21/eastern-michigan-university-cuts-four-sports-leaves-football-alone/443159002/
Here’s info about the cuts themselves.
Eastern Michigan University, facing steep budget shortfalls, will drop four of its sports programs at the end of this school year, the Ypsilanti school announced Tuesday.
Getting cut are softball, men’s swimming and diving, wrestling and women’s tennis. With the change, EMU, which previously led the Mid-American Conference with 21 sports, will now have 17 — seven men’s sports and 10 women’s sports. The school will remain in the MAC.
The moves come as EMU eliminates other positions in order to make up a projected budget deficit of $4.5 million to $5.5 million for the 2018 fiscal year. Forty-two other positions are being eliminated and 17 layoffs are being made.
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How long for Frost at Nebraska. The loss to Purdue at home wasn’t even close. Purdue (?!) pretty much dominated the whole way.
PS. I reclaim by Purdue roots.
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He’ll get several years to turn things around. He’s got a good QB so this team should be much better next year.
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At Lincoln, things may have to get worse before they get better.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. Clemson
5. OU
6. LSU
7. ND
8. WV
9. AU
10. UW
11. PSU
12. WI
16. MI
19. MSU
Big movers:
22. CU +7
14. Stanford -7
By conference:
ACC – 4, 17, 23, 25
B10 – 3, 11, 12, 16, 19
B12 – 5, 8, 20, 21
P12 – 10, 14, 18, 22
SEC – 1, 2, 6, 9, 15
Other – 7, 13, 24
Clemson finally drops. It seems a little harsh to drop PSU for losing by 1 to the #2 team, but at least they didn’t drop far. Stanford dropped too much as well. I know I’m biased, but I think OSU deserves to be #2 with a much better win than anything UGA has.
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https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. Clemson
5. LSU
6. ND
7. OU
8. AU
9. WV
10. UW
11. PSU
15. MI
16. WI
20. MSU
Big movers:
21. CU +5
14. Stanford -7
By conference:
ACC – 4, 17, 23, 24
B10 – 3, 11, 15, 16, 20
B12 – 7, 9, 19, 25
P12 – 10, 14, 18, 21
SEC – 1, 2, 5, 8, 13, 22
Other – 6, 12, 20
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More allegations regarding Maryland’s program. Durkin’s likely gone, and Evans and Loh could follow.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/colleges/motivation-or-abuse-maryland-confronts-footballs-fine-line-as-new-allegations-emerge/2018/09/30/e7ab028e-c3dd-11e8-b338-a3289f6cb742_story.html?utm_term=.90de2448a0e5
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I don’t disagree that Durkin probably should be gone and it seems likely he will be. Nor do I condone abusive coaching practices. That said, I still have some issues with some of the allegations.
* A lot of players defended Durkin and at least one of the accusers said the coaches chose a few guys to pick on. Were those few picked for their behavior (not giving 100% effort, etc) or randomly? And if they were picked for a solid reason, was their treatment as bad as the allegations say or is that just one side of the story? One of the accusers complained that the coaches had favorites and they were treated better. Welcome to life.
* No offense, but I don’t think a player’s mom is qualified to judge whether a coach is being truly physically, emotionally or psychologically abusive versus being a typical CFB coach. CFB players are pushed at every school because they have to be. It would be abusive to do that to a normal student but they are preparing these guys for an abusive sport. I’m not saying there wasn’t abuse at UMD, just that I don’t think most moms are qualified to judge that.
The WP piece summarizes some of my concerns:
But while some viewed such tactics as extreme and sadistic, others saw them as motivational and appropriate for the highest level of college football.
…
More than 175 athletes have played under Durkin at Maryland in the past 2½ years, and it’s not known how many spoke with investigators. Given that, distinguishing isolated complaints from a problematic behavioral pattern is among the commission’s challenges.
Those examining the program are trying to understand acceptable behavior in college athletics and whether Maryland coaches crossed a line — “which isn’t easy to do,” said Henry Darmstadter, a former Maryland kicker who graduated last spring and was interviewed by a commission member last month.
“College football is not like most work environments,” he said.
I know players can be brainwashed and/or afraid to speak out against a coach, but there seems to be a lot of gray area here. Some of the complaints sound very millennial.
To be clear, none of this deals with the McNair death. That was indefensible misconduct/neglect.
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I don’t like the idea of using food as a punitive weapon, not when nutrition should be a constructive part of every student-athlete’s life.
Durkin increasingly reminds me of Bob Ward. He played for Jim Tatum during Maryland’s run of glory in the early ’50s, replaced Lou Saban as coach in 1967, and was an utter disaster in College Park. The Terrapins went 0-9 in ’67 (George Washington U. dropped its football program before the season began), then went 2-8 in 1968. Attendance plummeted. Many players rebelled over his disciplinary practices, and he was fired after the season.
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vp81955,
“I don’t like the idea of using food as a punitive weapon, not when nutrition should be a constructive part of every student-athlete’s life.”
It all depends how it’s used. One person complained because champions would get steak while others would get hot dogs and baked beans. That’s a very common tactic in CFB to encourage competition all the time. Rewarding the winners of competitions isn’t abuse. I agree that you shouldn’t starve anyone or only feed them junk. Heck, maybe the losers should have to eat more vegetables (feels punitive but is really good for you).
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Serving vegetables only would be punishment. Vegetables (and fruit) in general have very low nutritional value, which is why herbivores spend all their time eating and have such huge intestinal systems. Many vegetables also contain mutagens and carcinogens. Look up Prof. Ames and the Ames Test. Hot dogs are a better source of nutrition than vegetables. Hot dogs and beans is excellent.
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Which is why I said “more vegetables.” They are a good source of fiber and certain nutrients. Players need a ton of calories so obviously you can’t feed them just vegetables.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/24859819/concussions-drop-ivy-league-football-kickoff-change
The kickoff changes in CFB do protect the players, at least in the Ivy League.
The 2016 change came after data showed kickoffs accounted for 6 percent of all plays but 21 percent of concussions. With NCAA approval, the Ivy League moved the kickoff and touchback lines up by 5 yards.
Over the next two years, the concussion rate plummeted from almost 11 to 2 per 1,000 plays during kickoffs.
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Watching Illinois at Rutgers since Maryland at Michigan is delayed by storms, and Frank, why would the Illini want to look like the poor man’s Tennessee, given the state of the Vols’ program?
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A very bleak outlook regarding Rutgers football. I concur with this. In his third season, Chris Ash has led that program to a really bad place, with no particular hope that it will get better in the near future. https://www.onthebanks.com/2018/10/7/17946640/the-air-has-been-let-out-of-rutgers-football-chris-ash-big-ten-illinois-indiana-jim-delany-schiano
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Rutgers isn’t going away. The toe hold in NYC region is too valuable. And there is no possible replacement.
NJ is supposedly talent-rich (meaning lots of poor Negros), but most have gone to PSU, other B1G schools, the ACC or the SEC. Rutgers might reach Illinois status if they can find a coach who can recruit those kids. It looks like Ash isn’t that guy.
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Rutgers is not going anywhere. There is lots of talent. Rashan Gary and Jabrill Peppers were the top ranked recruit going to the B1G two years in a row. Barkley was an RU commit till he flipped to PSU. Jonathan Taylor was an RU commit before going to Wisconsin. Talent is not the issue. When Ash came to RU he immediately fired everyone with any NJ high school connections. I guess that he thought that he was still at tOSU and recruits would flock to him. If RU can keep even one-half of NJ talent home, they will be a solid mid-level B1G team.
Ash has taken a program in trouble and made it worse. Much worse. Before Schiano went to the NFL he was really starting to turn the program, so it may be possible. Not in the near future.
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Jersey Bernie,
“Rutgers is not going anywhere. There is lots of talent. Rashan Gary and Jabrill Peppers were the top ranked recruit going to the B1G two years in a row. Barkley was an RU commit till he flipped to PSU. Jonathan Taylor was an RU commit before going to Wisconsin. Talent is not the issue. When Ash came to RU he immediately fired everyone with any NJ high school connections. I guess that he thought that he was still at tOSU and recruits would flock to him. If RU can keep even one-half of NJ talent home, they will be a solid mid-level B1G team.”
RU isn’t going to keep half of the the best in-state talent home. That isn’t realistic. One of the downsides of joining the B10 for RU is that OSU, MI, PSU and the rest have improved access to recruiting NJ now. It was easier to compete against lesser programs in recruiting and even RU’s best classes ever didn’t reach that 50% mark. And if you fire Ash, you lose whatever connections he was building with NJ coaches and start over. As for him firing everyone, that’s what new coaches do. It’s hardly like the previous regime was succeeding that much anyway.
“Ash has taken a program in trouble and made it worse. Much worse. Before Schiano went to the NFL he was really starting to turn the program, so it may be possible. Not in the near future.”
Schiano didn’t hit 0.500 for a season until year 5 and he didn’t have to play 9 B10 games per year including OSU, MI and PSU.
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A certain artfully worded point you made is not always a plus for a program for reasons of proximity to bad actors/infuences…I always felt Illinois did not cultivate the Chicago area as well as it should is because Champaign is not far enough away (90 minutes from the “Wild 100s” part of the South Side for one example) in the minds of some recruits and parents. Wiscy gets more out of state and from metro Madison and Kenosha-Racine than from the north half of Milwaukee.
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Jersey Bernie,
“A very bleak outlook regarding Rutgers football. I concur with this. In his third season, Chris Ash has led that program to a really bad place, with no particular hope that it will get better in the near future.”
I agree the outlook isn’t great, but it’s too early to judge this year’s team too harshly. Let’s not forget that in year one the team was so bad it was shut out 224-0 by OSU, MI, PSU and MSU as well as scoring only 7 against IA and IL. Last year was 2 shut outs and 2 games with 6 or 7 points. So far this year there are no shut outs and scoring under 13 only once (vs OSU). Despite the credit card issue depleting the roster and playing a true freshman QB, this team may actually be better than Ash’s other teams. It may well be year 5 before results show up in the wins column, especially being in the B10 East. That doesn’t mean Ash won’t work out.
As for the article, I take issue with this paragraph:
The other dream scenario is that the Big Ten gets so sick of Rutgers dragging down the reputation of the conference, they help the school financially so they can make a move after the season. With Rutgers set to gain a full share of the conference revenue split in 2021, perhaps the Big Ten would advance some of that money now to help pay for Ash’s buyout. Remember that Rutgers’ lack of success is a stain on commissioner Jim Delany’s legacy, one in which has been impactful overall in a positive way for the Big Ten during his tenure. Maybe hoping for a lifeboat from Delany is wishful thinking and fool’s good to even ponder it, but there aren’t a lot of things to hope for around Rutgers football these days.
The B10 is already advancing RU tens of millions of revenue at their request. If RU wants more upfront, they just have to negotiate the new terms (it’s all interest free loans). As for Delany, his legacy isn’t tarnished by this. He expanded the footprint into a new and growing region while bringing in a lot more revenue and adding another quality research flagship. The presidents are thrilled with all of that. Everyone would like RU to win more but that’s the least important aspect of athletics to the B10 and the presidents.
Besides, why should anyone expect firing Ash to improve things? You’ll have to turn over the roster again, teach players another system, start from scratch on recruiting and then hope the new guy is better than Ash. It’s a gamble that costs $10M and takes 3 years to find out if it even helped at all. Plus a quick trigger on Ash will scare off potential coaches who don’t want to get the same treatment from RU.
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Everyone knew going in that Rutgers’ athletics was, is, and will be a disaster. They were invited to get a TV toehold in NYC, and they ave delivered that.
Other than athletics, Rutgers is a good academic fit to the B1G, much better than UConn or Umass. And it is a better (but not perfect) cultural fit than any of the Tobacco Road schools.
The one-dimensional sports freaks will always hate schools like Rutgers, but the Kings need the Princesses to beat up on to show how big and bad they are. If tOSU played the equivalent of PSU every week, they would go 6 & 6 on the season. If they played Alabama level every week, they would go 0 & 12.
The B1G Prez and AD’s are content (but likely not happy) with Rutgers’ athletics, and Rutgers isn’t going away.
There are idiots out there who want to get rid of B1G charter schools like Illinois and Purdue, and who regret Nebraska. Not me.
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They were probably the same people who though Northwestern should be dropped, when between 1976 to 1981 Northwestern FB had an abysmal 3-62 record.
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The difference between Rutgers and Maryland is that the latter entered the B1G with 61 years’ experience, courtesy of being in the ACC, and hardly skipped a beat as a new member. The Big East was never in that category as a conference, and many of those in the Rutgers community — dating back to its ersatz Ivy days as recently as the 1970s — either are indifferent to big-time athletics or opposed to it. If Syracuse had been stronger in research and graduate study (and hadn’t withdrawn from the AAU), SU would’ve been a better fit as Maryland’s partner. As it s, changing the mentality on the banks of the Raritan will take years, if not decades.
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Rutgers was brought in for the NY metro area market. Syracuse could not deliver that. Even without NYC itself, the population of NJ is 9 million, including a fair amount of potential recruits and lot of B1G alums. Syracuse brings no population center and no local recruiting base.
RU is a major state land grant university. Syracuse is a large private school in NY state, but really in the middle of nowhere important. RU fits much better with the B1G than Cuse would. Clearly Syracuse has a football (and mens bball) history. RU has neither.
Honestly, I thought that the ACC should have taken RU over Cuse, just to lock up the entire East Coast, from Boston to Miami. The ACC did not and let the B1G come in and take the NY to DC corridor, which is huge market wise. This also “isolated” BC, Cuse and Pitt (if there is such a thing as being isolated with UWVa in the Big 12).
I agree completely about Maryland having a multi-decade head start. Way back in the 1950s, ’60s, etc., Rutgers was basically a 5,000 student mens college with 3000 student Douglas, which was a womens college about a mile or two away down College Avenue in New Brunswick. Rutgers was, as you said, a borderline Ivy, and Douglas the 8th Sister among the 7 Sisters. There was a sizable grad school in New Brunswick, but the law school, business school, and med school were in Newark, Camden or both. Now there are med schools in both Newark and New Brunswick. The others are still on other campuses.
During the late Schiano era, particularly in around 2006, interest in the football program took off. The Empire State building was lit up for the RU – Louisville game. Had that momentum continued, I think that a change of mentality at RU could have happened. It didn’t. Twelve years later, it seems that the 2006 season never happened.
I think that the difference between Chris Ash and prior RU football disasters is that somehow it feels worse now. All of the talk pre-season was whether in his third season there was a chance that Ash could lead to a bowl game. No one was prepared for this. Granted RUs best defensive back is hurt and out for the year. A couple of other starters got involved in the credit card fraud mess.
Even so, no one saw a likely 1-11 season coming.
Of course, as someone who also roots for FSU, there are other college football fiascos around. And how did my Badgers lose that damn game. Tough year.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Coaches poll:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. Clemson
5. ND
6. WV
7. UW
8. PSU
9. UCF
10. WI
13. MI
Big movers:
16. UF +11
21. AU -12
By conference:
ACC – 4, 15, 19
B10 – 3, 8, 10, 13
B12 – 6, 11, 14
P12 – 7, 17, 18, 24
SEC – 1, 2, 12, 16, 20, 21, 22
Other – 5, 9, 23, 25
https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. UGA
3. OSU
4. Clemson
5. ND
6. WV
7. UW
8. PSU
9. UT
10. UCF
12. MI
15. WI
Big movers:
9. UT +10
21. AU -13
By conference:
ACC – 4, 16, 20
B10 – 3, 8, 12, 15
B12 – 6, 9, 11
P12 – 7, 17, 19
SEC – 1, 2, 13, 14, 18, 21, 22, 24
Other – 5, 10, 23, 25
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Weird day in college football. As of this writing, three top 10 teams have gone down: Georgia at LSU, Washington at Oregon in OT and Penn State vs. Michigan State. And Nebraska remains luckless (and winless), blowing a 10-point lead at Northwestern (the Wildcats scored the tying touchdown on a 99-yard drive) and losing in OT. This is Nebraska’s first-ever 10-game losing streak.
A tangent: With UCF and USF both unbeaten, do you envision the Big 12 replenishing with both when the next round of realignment occurs in the middle of next decade and some of its more attractive members are picked off?
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A tangent: With UCF and USF both unbeaten, do you envision the Big 12 replenishing with both when the next round of realignment occurs in the middle of next decade and some of its more attractive members are picked off?
If they both follow their current trajectory, I think it’s most likely. They would both give WVU eastern partners and it could possibly help the Big 12 to remain a P5 conference. If nobody bolts the Big12 then it not as likely.
No surprise but the most likely teams to bolt are Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. I would think the Big 10 is the most likely destination. Ordinarily even though they are a good fit with the Big 10, I don’t think Kansas would get an invitation. However since the Notre Dame ship has sailed and the Big 10 now has an east coast presence, I think Kansas could be one of the 2 that head to the Big 10.
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vp81955,
“Weird day in college football. As of this writing, three top 10 teams have gone down: Georgia at LSU, Washington at Oregon in OT and Penn State vs. Michigan State.”
In addition, OSU struggled vs MN, ND struggled vs Pitt, UT struggled vs Baylor and UCF needed a big comeback (17 pts in 17:04) at Memphis. WV is losing at ISU at halftime, too. AL is cruising as always, so they’re the only top 10 team to cruise (assuming it holds up).
“And Nebraska remains luckless (and winless), blowing a 10-point lead at Northwestern (the Wildcats scored the tying touchdown on a 99-yard drive) and losing in OT. This is Nebraska’s first-ever 10-game losing streak.”
It’s a cliche, but they need to learn how to win. I think they’re improving though.
“A tangent: With UCF and USF both unbeaten, do you envision the Big 12 replenishing with both when the next round of realignment occurs in the middle of next decade and some of its more attractive members are picked off?”
Both UCF and USF needed big comebacks to squeak out wins this week, not that their record in any one season matters (and I know you know that). If the B12 splinters mid-decade, it’s really hard to predict what happens.
Who leaves? UT, OU and KU seem like the only desirable schools for P5s to me. Do all of them leave? Do they bring any of their little brothers with them (UT has the leverage for that and OU might)?
The P12 might take 4 B12 schools. I think the B10 and SEC would only want 2. The ACC might take WV if ND joins.
I think what would happen next depends in part on who left. The general assumption is that the B12 brand and the remaining schools carry enough value that the B12 could rebuild by pulling schools from the G5. But in the worst case where UT, TT, OU, OkSU, KU and WV all leave, I don’t know if that’s true. Baylor, TCU, KSU and ISU bring very little to the table themselves. I’m not sure they would have the pull to bring in 8 new members. Perhaps they merge with the AAC and keep the name B12, but perhaps the AAC demands to keep their name so it’s clear they acquired the B12 teams and not the other way around.
If fewer schools leave, then the B12 probably has to expand back to 12 to survive. Then the usual suspects (Boise, BYU, CSU, UH, SMU, Tulsa, Memphis, Tulane, UC, UCF, USF) all come into play. It’s hard to say who will be their top candidates then since circumstances change. If the B12 needs 4 schools, I’d think USF and UCF would be solid candidates. Distance and their spots in the pecking order in FL hurt them, but the markets and recruiting grounds they bring are great.
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http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/
Chaos Saturday hit and jumbled the polls. I don’t think UGA dropped enough for losing as a favorite considering WI was a sizable underdog and dropped a lot more.
Both the B12 and P12 are out of undefeated teams leaving them no margin for error if the want a CFP spot, especially with ND undefeated and facing a not so tough schedule. The odds of any conference getting two teams in shrank a lot with UGA’s loss. You’d probably need 11-1 UGA to beat 12-0 AL in the SECCG for it to happen.
Coaches poll:
1. AL
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. ND
5. LSU
6. UGA
7. MI
8. UT
9. UCF
10. OU
16. PSU
19. WI
22. IA
Big movers:
5. LSU +7
19. WI -9
By conference:
ACC – 3, 15
B10 – 2, 7, 16, 19, 22
B12 – 8, 10, 13
P12 – 11, 14, 23, 24, 25
SEC – 1, 5, 6, 12, 17, 18
Other – 4, 9, 20, 21
https://collegefootball.ap.org/poll
AP Poll:
1. AL
2. OSU
3. Clemson
4. ND
5. LSU
6. MI
7. UT
8. UGA
9. OU
10. UCF
18. PSU
19. IA
23. WI
24. MSU
Big movers:
5. LSU +7
19. WI -9
By conference:
ACC – 3, 16
B10 – 2, 6, 18, 19, 23, 24
B12 – 7, 9, 13
P12 – 12, 15, 25
SEC – 1, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 22
Other – 4, 10, 20, 21
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
538’s CFP projections:
Odds of making the CFP:
AL – 65%
Clemson – 64%
OSU – 52%
ND – 51%
UGA – 22%
OU – 22%
MI – 16%
UT – 15%
LSU – 14%
UF – 10%
Top P12 schools:
OR – 7%
UW – 7%
Odds to win out:
ND – 38%
Clemson – 38%
AL – 35%
OSU – 27%
UCF – 25%
UW – 25%
PSU – 18%
OU – 17%
UGA – 16%
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NBA G-League to offer $125,000/year contracts to potential one-and-dones.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25015812/g-league-offer-professional-path-elite-prospects-not-wanting-go-one-done-route-ncaa
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Great. Let those who want to go that route do so and everyone wins. The top players can get paid and the NCAA can maintain amateurism.
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College football ratings for the 1st half of the season:
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
B1G teams were involved in the three highest rated games of the season, but only one other B1G game garnered over a 2.5.
Ohio St – Penn St: 5.3; Ohio St – TCU: 4.2; Michigan – N.D.: 4.0; Wisc – Mich: 3.5.
All were night games on either ABC or NBC.
6 SEC teams were involved in 7 games that garnered at least a 2.6.
Miami – LSU: 3.8 ABC Sun 7:30p; LSU – Auburn: 3.5; A&M – Bama: 3.4; UGA – LSU: 3.3; LSU – Florida: 2.9; Louisville – Bama: 2.7 ABC 8p; Clemson – A&M: 2.6 ESPN 7p.
All others were 3:30p CBS starts,
The highest rated game not involving a B1G or SEC team was Texas – Oklahoma: 3.5 Fox Noon.
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Updated college football ratings for weeks 8 – 11 (2.5 or above).
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Week 8: 3.8 Ohio State/Purdue 7:30p ABC; 3.4 Michigan/Michigan State Noon FOX; 2.6 Alabama/Tennessee 3:30p CBS
Week 9: 3.9 Georgia/Florida 3:30p CBS
Week 10: 6.6 Alabama/LSU 8p CBS; 3.1 Nebraska/Ohio State Noon FOX; 2.7 West VA/Texas 3:30p FOX; 2.6 Georgia/Kentucky 3;30p CBS; 2.5 Penn State/Michigan State 3:45p ESPN
Week 11: 3.3 Miss State/Alabama 3;30p CBS; 3.3 Ohio State/Michigan State Noon FOX
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Updated college football ratings for weeks 12-14 (2.5 and above)
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/
Week 12: 3.5 Ohio State/Maryland noon ABC
Week 13: 7.5 Ohio State/Michigan noon FOX; 5.1 Alabama/Auburn 3:30p CBS; 4.4 Notre Dame/USC 8p ABC; 3.0 Oklahoma/West VA 8p ESPN
Week 14: 10.1 Alabama/Georgia 4p CBS; 6.2 Oklahoma/Texas noon ABC; 5.0 Ohio State/Northwestern 8:15p FOX; 2.6 Washington/Utah 8:20p (11/30) FOX; 2.5 Clemson/Pitt 8p ABC
Top College Football TV Ratings of 2018
1 ALA-UGA SEC Champ. 12/1, 4:00p CBS 10.1 17.50M
2 MICH-OSU B1G 11/24, Noon FOX 7.5 13.20M
3 ALA-LSU SEC 11/3, 8:00p CBS 6.6 11.54M
4 OKLA-TEX B12 Champ. 12/1, Noon ABC 6.2 10.16M
5 OSU-PSU B1G 9/29, 7:30p ABC 5.3 9.14M
6 AUB-ALA SEC 11/24, 3:30p CBS 5.1 9.13M
7 OSU-NWSTN B1G Champ. 12/1, 8:00p FOX 5.0 8.66M
8 ND-USC IND, P12 11/24, 8:00p ABC 4.4 7.74M
9 OSU-TCU B1G, B12 9/15, 8:00p ABC 4.2 7.23M
10 MICH-ND B1G, IND 9/1, 7:30p NBC 4.0 7.09M
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Is Purdue’s Rondell Moore the nation’s most electrifying player, though he’s only a freshman? After watching him the past few weeks, his moves, instincts and football smarts are exceptional, as Ohio State discovered.
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I vote yes!
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Only one new comment in FIVE days, and two in a week?
Time for a new essay by Frank.
PS. Hi to BoilerTex from a fellow alumni. I was there during the Griese era. Hoping for a comeback.
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Well, that hope was short-lived.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25107759/record-changes-top-25-11-ranked-losses
A crazy Saturday shook up the AP poll.
The Orange had the second-longest streak of unranked seasons among Power Five schools, behind only Indiana. The Hoosiers have not been ranked since 1994. The Cavaliers were tied for sixth on that list with Illinois.
With those teams now ranked, here are the current longest droughts in the AP Top 25:
Indiana, 1994
Purdue, 2007
Wake Forest, 2008
Kansas, 2009
Illinois 2011
Rutgers, 2012
It’s sad that the B10 has 4 of the top 6 streaks.
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Silver lining might be the cooling of any “Brohm to _____” rumors, and that might even include NFL HC jobs.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25128085/maryland-board-recommends-keeping-dj-durkin-damon-evans
Apparently the environment wasn’t toxic and it’s the president’s fault that nobody seemed to know who was supposed to supervise the strength coach so he just ran wild and killed someone.
UMD’s BoT suggests the the HC and the AD should both stay while the president is being forced out (retires in June).
“The board of regents insisted that DJ return, and this has been their highest priority,” a source with knowledge of the situation told ESPN. “Some regents appeared to be obsessed with it. The problem is they don’t have the authority to hire and fire DJ, but they made it clear that is their main priority here. Because they can’t hire and fire anybody, which they finally realized, they told Wallace Loh that they wanted him to bring DJ back and the clear message was that if Loh was not willing to bring DJ back right away, they would fire [Loh] immediately and then see who the acting president was and get that person to [retain Durkin].”
…
“The board of regents insisted that DJ return, and this has been their highest priority,” a source with knowledge of the situation told ESPN. “Some regents appeared to be obsessed with it. The problem is they don’t have the authority to hire and fire DJ, but they made it clear that is their main priority here. Because they can’t hire and fire anybody, which they finally realized, they told Wallace Loh that they wanted him to bring DJ back and the clear message was that if Loh was not willing to bring DJ back right away, they would fire [Loh] immediately and then see who the acting president was and get that person to [retain Durkin].”
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How did/do you get incriminating evidence on the board as a whole? Asking for a few warm seat coaches…
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After much negative reaction from the College Park community for what happened Tuesday, Loh gave the regents and boosters the figurative finger on his way out. Bye-bye Durkin.
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And now the chair of the board of regents has stepped down in an attempt to quiet things down. I wonder if more BoR members will follow (on their own or with a shove from the governor). The governor and legislature strongly disagreed with the BoR’s recommendations and the current governor appointed many of them.
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Shoud the Big Ten have Buyer’s Remorse Over Adding Maryland and Rutgers? (SI.com)
https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/05/big-ten-expansion-rutgers-maryland-jim-delany
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SI article discussing whether the B1G should have buyer’s remorse over the Maryland and Rutgers additions.
https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/11/05/big-ten-expansion-rutgers-maryland-jim-delany
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Eleven days without a posting, even from Brian. Is this blog dead, abandoned?
Watching several B1G games over the weekend, I noted a few players who grew up in New Jersey or Maryland on other B1G teams. One had even withdrawn a commitment to Rutgers to go play for Wisky (?).
Why not institute a regional “draft” for Maryland and Rutgers? The other B1G schools would agree to suspend recruiting and scholarship offers to athletes from New Jersey and Maryland until Maryland and Rutgers had achieved something like parity in the B1G. Say 10 years.
The old AFC did this to allow the new teams to collect local college heroes and to improve the attractiveness of the AFC.
I recognize that might just open the door to the ACC and SEC, but if Maryland and especially Rutgers are such embarrassments to the B1G, then something needs to be done.
That something does not include expulsion. Both Maryland and Rutgers are B1G-like schools both academically and culturally. And they are situated in TV nirvana. Oklahoma and Texas aren’t.
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Jonathan Taylor star RB at Wisky was an RU commit from South Jersey. Sauquon Barkley, I believe was also at one time an RU commit. Barkley is from Eastern PA, pretty much just across the Delaware from NJ. By the way NJ defensive stars Jabrill Peppers and Rashan Gary, who I believe were the highest rated recruits in the B1G their senior years, both went to Michigan. If RU could keep half of the top 10 NJ players every year RU would be a very good mid level or even an upper level B1G team. This has never happened and probably never will. If RU gets two of the top ten NJ players they had a decent recruiting year.
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Nonsense. Each merely needs to hire the correct head coach and find recruits who have the courage to shake things up.
Maryland reportedly has clandestine interest (and vice versa) in Georgia defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, whose background is tantalizing — black (the Terps have never had a black permanent head football coach), from Cleveland, Wisconsin alum, assistant at Ohio State, Alabama and UGa, former Jaguars assistant and interim head coach. I’d certainly hire him ahead of Locksley, who has ties to Maryland but way too much baggage.
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I do wonder if the RU campus is simply too close to the old friends and the drama/mayhem that can bring for some of the local NJ recruits. The same dynamic might apply to UMD and Prince George County/DC. Im convinced that Illinois loses on many recruits in FB/MBB because its not far enough from the South Side.
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There is a lot of truth to that. NJ is a small state and RU is almost in the middle, so everyone lives within 150 miles of the campus, and generally within 50 or 75 miles.
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Isn’t it over 2 hours from Chicago to U-C? How far is far enough?
I agree that could be a problem for RU and UMD though.
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If you account for the fact that many of the “athletes” live south of the congested downtown (Phillips HS) and also in the farther south side (Simeon HS, Morgan Park HS, Mount Carmel, Rita, BR etc) and south suburbs (e.g. the Wild Hundreds neighborhoods, which has direct access to I-57, Harvey, Homewood, Matteson, Crete) its more like 90 minutes factoring speeding.
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bob sykes,
“Eleven days without a posting, even from Brian. Is this blog dead, abandoned?”
I started a new job in October with a lot less time sitting in front of a computer with nothing to really do because you’re waiting for something else.
“Why not institute a regional “draft” for Maryland and Rutgers? The other B1G schools would agree to suspend recruiting and scholarship offers to athletes from New Jersey and Maryland until Maryland and Rutgers had achieved something like parity in the B1G. Say 10 years.”
The other B10 schools don’t want to miss out on recruits. Besides, non-B10 schools (esp. the ACC) would still take those recruits away from UMD and RU so we might as well keep them in the conference. In addition, those recruiting grounds are part of the reason RU and UMD were invited to join.
“I recognize that might just open the door to the ACC and SEC, but if Maryland and especially Rutgers are such embarrassments to the B1G, then something needs to be done.”
No “might” about it. And UMD isn’t an embarrassment on the field (5-5 right now). RU needs time and a better coach/recruiter.
“That something does not include expulsion. Both Maryland and Rutgers are B1G-like schools both academically and culturally. And they are situated in TV nirvana. Oklahoma and Texas aren’t.”
How about we stop nationally televising every game RU plays in?
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DearBrian,
May I have a link or url to your new blog?
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…and also DC for the Chicago Bears under Mark Trestmann, although it is probably best not to list that. Also calls to mind Greg “Bullets” Blache, another Bears DC and also ND alum who was under some consideration to replace George O’Leary after the resume scandal until Ty WIllingham was offered.
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Southern Cal may ponder a change of coaches after the Trojans lost a winnable home game vs. Cal and are out of the Pac-12 South race. Jack Del Rio may be the frontrunner; he certainly has ties to Troy. (SC’s athletic department is even more insular than Michigan’s.)
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It was national signing day for all sports other than football, and while part of the news is that Maryland landed the nation’s #1 recruiting class in women’s basketball (four 5-star players, all in the top 30), several B1G counterparts did nearly as well, according to espnW. Ohio State ranked 2nd and Michigan State 4th, both with 5-player classes (each sandwiching Stanford). Moreover, Penn State placed 17th and Indiana 18th. (I bet BTN coverage has a role in much of this.) The Terps’ entrance into the B1G in 2014-2015 finally has helped lift all boats in what had been an underperforming conference for women’s hoops.
Another angle — the top 20 is comprised entirely of Power 5 programs (although one league is absent). How the other four conferences did:
ACC: NCSU 7th, ND 10th, Duke 12th, L’ville 14th, FSU 15th
B12: none
P12: Stan 3rd, SoCal 6th, UCLA 9th, OrSU 16th
SEC: SCar 5th, Tenn 8th, Mizzou 11th, UGa 13th, MissSt 19th, LSU 20th
Does not having a Big 12 network hurt it with recruits?
Finally, where’s Connecticut? It should be noted four of the top 10 players have yet to commit, and one or a few might choose the Huskies, but it’s not a fait accompli. Playing in a relatively weak conference may finally doom Storrs. Times are changing.
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I’m guessing UConn will do just fine. Maybe they’ll lose a game or two next year. If I was UConn, I’d worry about when Geno retires (he’s mid-60s). The game has grown enough that there’s no reason a top coach has to go to Storrs.
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Les Miles may be ready to coach again. From the Baton Rouge Advocate:
More than two years after his firing, LSU and Les Miles have reached an agreement to settle up on money owed.
The school announced Thursday both parties agreed to a lump-sum settlement that would pay the former Tigers coach $1.5 million of the remaining $6.5 million Miles was owed through 2023.
Miles has recently been connected to the head coaching opening at the University of Kansas. It’s unclear if the timing of Thursday’s news is a sign that Miles is negotiating with Kansas.
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_e2bc3be8-e918-11e8-8aa8-0343843b65d5.html
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My thoughts on the apparent Kansas gambit with Les Miles:
* Many here believe KU’s long-time goal is joining the Big Ten, either with Oklahoma or Texas. It plans to invest plenty of money into facilities to show the B1G it takes football seriously, and Miles will help.
* It’s a good time for the Jayhawks to do this, as Kansas State soon will face Snyder’s retirement — and no K-State coach aside from Snyder has had sustained success. KU could wrest state football supremacy from KSU, both with high school and juco recruits.
Looking ahead a half-decade or so for the likely next round of the conference carousel, let’s assume the B1G expands to 16 with Kansas and Oklahoma (this believes each can extricate itself from KSU and Okie State). What does the Big 12 then do? Some scenarios:
If Texas remains in the Big 12 — The conference expands back to 10 by taking in two of the following three: Cincinnati, Central Florida and South Florida.
If Texas goes independent for football — The conference enlarges to 12 for football (Texas would stay for other sports, a la the ACC and Notre Dame) with four of these five: UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Houston or Memphis.
Either scenario enables the less powerful Big 12 schools to remain in the Power 5. It also gives West Virginia a nearby travel partner in UC. And Texas and Oklahoma still would meet each October in Dallas.
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Meanwhile, my theory that a new/alternative provider may provide a new conduit divorced from cable and current satellite options. Eventual world wide access.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.fastcompany.com/90268592/elon-musks-spacex-just-got-fcc-approval-to-launch-7518-satellites
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So, not cable, not broadcast, not satellite, not telephone DSL. What’s left? Those are the only choices available. There is no other communication technology.
As a practical matter, HD TV broadcasts are limited to a 35-40 mile radius from transmitter tower, so it is strictly an urban/near suburban service. Cable requires a minimum house density, generally suburban or urban, and it, also, is not an option for rural areas. For rural areas, the only choices are DSL and satellite. (We have both.)
The Iridium system is now owned by the Pentagon/CIA and only provides voice/data telephone service. Elon Musks putative service is a satellite service just like DirectV (AT&T) and Dish.
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“not satellite” – not what I said.
Not current satellite option. Obviously it is a new satellite system that supposedly operates at latency (<25ns) fast enough for gamers. Revised operating altitude of inner shell recently lowered 500k will increase speed even more.
I’m inclined to give it a try when/if it gets up. Especially if price forecast of around $60/mo holds.
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This is interesting.
Amazon bids for Disney’s 22 regional sports networks, including YES Network, sources say
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/20/amazon-bids-for-disneys-22-regional-sports-networks-including-yes-network-sources-say.html
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Amazon/sports related:
https://pac-12.com/article/2018/11/20/pac-12-conference-goes-all-amazon-web-services
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It is very unlikely that Disney will get the YES network. The Yankees own 20% and have a right of first refusal if the other 80% is sold. The Yankees will repurchase YES. https://nypost.com/2018/11/11/yankees-looking-to-buy-back-yes-from-21st-century-fox/
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Now there are reports that the Yankees may be working with Amazon to buy the 80% of the YES network, based an estimated value of $4 billion. (I know one of the guys who bought the Yankees from CBS for $10,000,000 in 1973. We lived in the same town in NJ. While Steinbrenner bought most of the team, there were a bunch of limited partners. This guy bought four percent of the Yankees for $400,000. That is probably worth more than $100,000,000 today.)
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football coaching news via footballscoop.com
Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights will reportedly bring Chris Ash back in 2019. Ash has led the team to one win this season and has seven wins in three seasons.
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Ash is coming back for money reasons. Period. When he took the job, there was an NCAA investigation which didn’t result in anything. His contract was for five years after the investigation ends, so he is guaranteed until 2022. Ash is owed either 8 or 10 million dollars, and that does not include payments to assistants who would also go if Ash is fired.
There are no big dollar alums to step up and pay off the contract and, honestly, the athletic department does not have the money. Theoretically, it could be borrowed from future B1G payments, but they are apparently not willing to do this. The fan base is totally disgusted. I have followed RU football for more than 50 years and it has never been this bad, even when they had an 0-9 season.
I think that this is a mistake by RU. Ash has done so much damage to football program that it may take years to just get back to being bad rather than terrible.
On the other hand, who would now take the job without being blown away with money, which RU does not have yet? In a couple of years when full B1G payments kick in, the funds will be there. It likely will be a very long road back to even being in the top 10 of the 14 B1G schools.
Really RU’s problems go deeper than football. They had the problem with the football team and used the former AD, Tim Pernetti as the fall guy. Pernetti was a good AD and really had nothing to do with the problems, but he was thrown to the wolves.
A new AD search committee came up with a few names as a replacement. Then at the very last second an aggressive female member of the Board of Governors pushed Louisville assistant AD Julie Hermann to be the RU AD. Hermann was not on the committee list and there is zero reason to be believe that anyone thought that she was qualified for the job, but she got it anyway.
Julie Hermann was a complete and total disaster and things have gone downhill since then. (Which is not that easy considering how far down the hill they started)
https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2018/09/revisiting_chris_ashs_contract_extension_why_rutge.html
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There has always been a faction at Rutgers who wanted it to be an Ivy-like school, and they deeply resented the D I athletic program, especially in the days of Schiano’s successes. This attitude poisons the whole effort to build a respectable D I program. Cultural change at a university is a generational thing. Don’t expect any improvements for 30 years.
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You may be correct, I hope not and I certainly will not see it in 30 years. IF and it is IF Schiano had stayed, I think that the corner could have been turned. He left and the window of opportunity closed. Back many years ago, RU was really effectively a public school at the edge of the Ivies. Lots of students there whose families could not afford to pay for costs at an Ivy. Of course Rutgers College only had 5,000 male students and Douglas (the 8th of the Seven Sisters?) had 3,000 females across town in New Brunswick. Now everything is very different.
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Remember, less than 60 years ago OSU’s faculty kept the football team from playing in the Rose Bowl for fear of athletics being too powerful. Plenty of faculty today still think the AD is too strong and too well funded, but that’s jealousy since the AD gives back to the school.
I don’t blame RU’s faculty for being upset as state funding keeps diminishing while the AD has been running up huge deficits, covered by taking money from the academic side and huge student fees. I think you may see some attitudes change when full B10 payments are coming in, especially if the AD can become self-sufficient or nearly so.
Compare IL and RU in USA Today’s financial database (http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/):
Revenue
33. Illinois – $97,447,731
34. Rutgers – $96,883,027
Expenses
Illinois – $100,739,817
Rutgers – $99,193,280
Allocated Funds (student fees, money from the academics side, money from the state, etc)
Illinois – $3,281,700 (3.37% of budget)
Rutgers – $33,087,478 (34.15%)
Breakdown of IL’s revenue:
Ticket Sales – $12,825,263
Contributions – $24,521,958
Rights / Licensing – $51,106,796
Student Fees – $3,240,154
School Funds – $275,430
Other – $5,478,130
Total Revenues – $97,447,731
Breakdown of RU’s revenue:
Ticket Sales – $12,824,201
Contributions – $8,125,201
Rights / Licensing – $25,440,105
Student Fees – $11,766,728
School Funds – $21,320,750
Other – $17,406,042
Total Revenues – $96,883,027
Clearly RU needs their alumni and fans to step up and buy more gear and donate money, but that requires winning. It may take decades to develop the culture of donating to athletics but joining the B10 is the first step. Once the teams get competitive, tickets will be in greater demand and the ball can start rolling. But the more money that comes in from fans, the quicker students can stop footing the bill through fees and tuition.
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How about those cadets from the Military College of South Carolina, otherwise known as The Citadel – holding the Evil Empire to a 10-10 tie at the half with a chance to take the lead in the 3rd quarter!
My son graduated from The Citadel in May. Last month I saw The Citadel choke away a game to Furman… to FURMAN!
The best play on The Citadel’s roster probably couldn’t make the scout team for the NFL team in Tuscaloosa. What a testament to the perseverance these cadets acquired during their Knob (Freshman) year at El Cid.
The Citadel twitter account blew up during the game by gigging South Carolina, Miss State, Ole Miss, and even my beloved LSU Tigers, and I loved every minute of it.
The first half of The Citadel’s game against The Team Whose Name Shall Not be Spoken was the most fun I’ve had watching football this season, including my Tigers romp over Georgia!
https://www.al.com/alabama/2018/11/the-guy-behind-the-citadels-savage-twitter-account-explains-the-strategy.html
Go Bulldogs!
Fire Those Cannons!
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Wilner: Legacy media: Not dead yet
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Lots of news on coaching vacancies at footballscoop.com
UNC likely to rehire Mack Brown.
Texas Tech and Mike Leach not getting remarried. Holgerson not interested. Clemson DC Brent Venables appears to be out as well.
Updates on the LSU/A&M staff fight after the game.
http://footballscoop.com/news/fight-broke-end-lsu-game/
I may or may not discuss that game. I was at Kyle Field in the endzone where the overtime took place and am still processing the greatest/worst game I’ve ever witnessed.
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Alan,
That had to be painful staying in a road stadium for 7+ hours (especially at TAMU). I felt bad for you since a couple of bad calls allowed TAMU to survive long enough to win, but how long has it been since LSU put up 70+ on an SEC team?
The players were so spent it was silly and probably dangerous. There really is a place for ties in CFB. I think they should probably cap the number of OTs for player safety.
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Well, at least there’s a little intrigue left in the CFB season now with OSU upsetting UM. Depending on how the CCGs go, there could be a reasonable debate for the 4th spot.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
I disagree with 538’s model of who will make it in this year in at least two respects:
1. I think ND is a given at 12-0 no matter what. The model puts ND at just 62% if AL, Clemson, OSU and OU all win titles, with OSU at 70% and OU at 68%. I don’t believe 2 1-loss champs would get in over 12-0 ND.
2. They have AL at just 15% if the they lose to UGA, but I don’t see a consensus best team all year being left out for losing a close CCG to a top 4 team.
I do agree with them that OSU vs OU could be a close call. OSU has by far the worse loss, and past years have shown that matters a lot, but OSU also has by far the best win (both UM and PSU outrank WV and UT in the CFP rankings). OU’s defensive problems all season will be a factor, too. OSU has been at least average on D statistically and both teams have a great offense.
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ND is in; there isn’t a scenario in which they are displaced from the top 4.
Assuming all championship game favorites win except Alabama could the committee really select a second SEC school over one loss champs OU/OSU, particularly as this would mean only 2 P5 conferences are represented in the playoff? Does the committee seed ND #1 over Clemson or Alabama #3 over Georgia to avoid a fourth consecutive Clemson-Alabama playoff match-up?
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If AL has a close loss, I could certainly see them putting in AL over OSU because of the blowout loss to Purdue. They did it last year. The committee claims not to pay attention to conference affiliation when ranking, but that’s clearly BS as they overrate a number of SEC teams.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/11/21/college-football-playoff-rankings-what-committee-got-right-wrong/2074472002/
Yes, the selection committee continues to place a shockingly amount of value on second-tier teams from the SEC. …
Wrong
This ongoing fascination with the SEC. Alabama is a no-doubt, no-brainer pick for the top seed, with little argument to the contrary. There’s even a case for Georgia at No. 5, again due to the dearth of accomplished contenders for the first spot outside the four-team field — Oklahoma’s defense is an abomination, Washington State doesn’t have the resume, Ohio State has been average and UCF is, unfortunately, part of the Group of Five and thus essentially ineligible.
LSU at No. 7 is silly. Florida at No. 11 is strange. Kentucky at No. 15 is borderline laughable. Mississippi State at No. 18 is so ludicrous that it boggles the mind. Even if you follow the logic that says LSU, Florida and Kentucky are among the best teams in college football, Mississippi State lost to all four by a combined score of 84-16.
The committee’s embrace of the SEC is built on a house of cards so precarious that just one contrary viewpoint would cause the whole structure to collapse upon itself. For example, saying that Mississippi State is merely average invalidates wins over the Bulldogs by the Tigers, Gators and Wildcats. Saying that Florida isn’t deserving of being No. 11 in the rankings would then mean LSU isn’t worthy of being seventh, since the Tigers lost in Gainesville in early October.
And questioning LSU’s credentials then takes a bite out of Georgia’s reputation, since the Tigers tore through the Bulldogs by 20 points a week after falling to the Gators. In other words, it’s worth asking whether the committee has manufactured the value of certain SEC teams to fulfill a preconceived notion of the league’s strength beyond Alabama.
I think this other article might help explain the apparent SEC bias, though:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/columnist/george-schroeder/2018/11/25/ohio-state-illustrates-college-football-playoff-committee-offense-defense-evaluation/2104750002/
But in the biggest picture, it was also a very vivid illustration – live and in full color – of what a dynamic offense can do to a very good defense. Which is why, when evaluating incomplete teams, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s current and very obvious preference for defense is clearly the wrong lean.
It’s much better – best! – to have both an offense and a defense, of course. See: Alabama and Clemson. But if (like most teams), you’ve got one or the other?
This is college football, 2018: You’d better be able to put up a bunch of points.
…
In the bigger picture, it’s long past time the selection committee recognizes that in a matchup of incomplete teams, explosive offense often beats down dominant defense.
…
It’s easy to see how and why the selection committee is predisposed toward defense. Its current makeup includes five former coaches. They rightfully command a lot of respect from the other eight committee members. But the retired coaches’ average age is 71.6 years old – and Frank Beamer, who retired after the 2015 season, is the only one who coached in this decade.
Coincidentally, that’s when offense transformed college football.
At some point, those slots will be occupied by guys who coached in this era. When it happens, the predisposition toward defense will probably change.
It’d be nice, though, if the selection committee acknowledged right now, in real time, the reality of college football in the postmodern era: You’d better have an offense – because what happened Saturday can happen to your very good defense.
Defense remains hugely important. Having both is absolutely the best possible situation. See Alabama and Clemson. It’s best to be complete.
But if it’s one or the other? “Defense wins championships” is a nice talking point – but putting up points is a much better plan.
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https://www.thelantern.com/2018/11/decline-since-title-ix-ohio-state-fares-better-in-employing-women-coaches-than-big-ten-average/
A lengthy piece looking at women coaching at P5 schools since Title IX started. It’s from OSU’s student paper so it focuses on OSU but it has stats from the B10 as a whole.
In a nutshell, Title IX vastly increased the number of women’s teams but the number of women coaching has stayed about the same. Thus they represent a much smaller fraction of the coaches running women’s teams than before.
After being enacted in 1972, Title IX worked to prohibit sex-based discrimination in education, causing the size and scope of women’s athletics to grow dramatically, but a Lantern analysis of coaching records showed the share of women in coaching has reduced to a fraction of its size since then.
Eight of the nine women’s teams at Ohio State were coached by women in 1972. In 2018, there are still eight teams coached by women. However, there are now 13 women’s teams.
The trend also holds true in the Big Ten Conference, where nearly 3 of 4 women’s teams were coached by women in 1972.
Now, more than half are coached by men, but only 3 percent of Big Ten men’s teams are coached by women.
…
The most rapid decline in the coaching of Big Ten women’s teams occurred throughout the 1970s. In 1973, the number of female coaches fell from 74 percent to 51 percent in 1981. Then, in 1990, the share of women in coaching increased slightly, reaching 59 percent before hitting an all-time low of 46 percent in 2008.
For the past five years, the proportion of women in coaching has stagnated at 49 percent.
…
Title IX was supposed to ensure a lack of representation wouldn’t happen. Though central to cases of sexual harassment and assault in recent years, it served primarily to create equal opportunities in education and sports at its onset.
In many ways, it did.
Big Ten schools added more than 100 teams in six years. But while the number of teams continued to rise, the number of female coaches did not. Four years after Title IX was established, there was just one fewer female coach in the conference than there is today. There are now 49 more teams.
…
In other words, as the number of coaching positions available increased, so did the opportunities for men and the competition for women.
“The changes that I’ve recognized have made it more difficult for a lot of women,” Smith said. “The financial gain is just as high on the women’s side. Before it wasn’t. Now it is. That increased the competition for women to get head jobs because there’s more men that have ventured into that space.”
…
“The money has gotten so much greater than when I first started coaching that I think that’s where a lot of the men are now thinking, ‘OK I could actually make a living, you know, coaching on the ladies’ side as well,’” [Therese] Hession [HC for M and W Golf at OSU] said.
[Karen] Dennis [HC for M and W T&F and XC at OSU] attributes the diminishing share of women to something else.
During the first decade of Title IX, women’s athletics were governed by the Association for Intercollegiate Athletics for Women, which meant women’s sports had separate championships, athletic departments and leadership than men’s sports.
Dennis’ coach Nell Jackson, for example, was the director of women’s athletics at Michigan State.
Then, in 1982, women’s sports were included under the umbrella of the NCAA, a merging of men’s and women’s athletic departments that resulted in male athletic directors taking over programs.
Jackson, an Olympian with a Ph.D., was one such director who lost her leadership position to a man, causing her to leave Michigan State and her position with the track team. Dennis took over as the Spartans’ head coach.
“The men who were athletic directors just kind of weeded out the female administrators,” Dennis said. “That’s it. That’s what happened.”
…
In an ideal world, [Nicole] LaVoi [author of “Women in Sports Coaching” and a leading scholar on female coaches] said more than 50 percent of women’s teams, as well as at least 25 percent of men’s teams, would be coached by women.
“At the current rate it’s pinching up, I’ll be dead before that happens,” she said.
Half of the Big Ten teams, including Ohio State, meet LaVoi’s standard for women’s teams, but none meet the standard for men’s teams.
Dennis and Hession are the anomaly; there are two other women leading men’s teams in the Big Ten. These coaches are evidence that progress is happening, if ever so slowly.
I think you’ll be hard pressed to ever see 25% of men’s teams coached by women. Several of the sports don’t have a women’s team (football, baseball, wrestling) or the rules differ significantly between the two teams (gymnastics – different apparatus, hockey – no checking for women, lacrosse – women have more players, larger fields and no body checking, etc) so it would be much harder to convince the players to accept a female coach. Even in sports without official differences, the style of play can be quite different. You also can’t ignore the locker room difficulties when the coach is the opposite gender of the team (although men coaching women do just fine). Part of that is more girls grew up with male coaches than boys did. There’s a lot of subconscious bias built into most boys who have always been coached by men. That isn’t to say women aren’t capable of coaching those sports (see Becky Hammon in the NBA), but they seem to need an unusual background to overcome all those hurdles.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/acc/2018/11/28/georgia-tech-football-coach-paul-johnson-announce-retirement/2139722002/
Paul Johnson is retiring from GT. Is this the end of the option in the P5? I hope not, but it carries such a stigma that I don’t know if anyone is willing to adopt it again.
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Too bad. In the 60’s and 70’s nearly everyone in the SWC and Big 8 ran it. Every year, Oklahoma and Nebraska played The Game of the Century.
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RPO schemes are now just barely envisioned as a viable offense scalable to pro success with the emergence of the Chiefs with Mahomes, and to a lesser extent the Rams/Goff and Bears/Trubisky. The option in later years scared off many recruits interested in the next level.
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But it can be a great equalizer for a team like Kansas which doesn’t have the same talent level as the rest of their conference. It’s not like they can get much worse.
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Brohm staying at Purdue. Could be waiting out some further south SEC or ACC ops that could come open for ’20 or ’21 (FSU, UM, CLE if Swinney slides to the Tide, LSU, AUB). Even USC has been mentioned. I would like to see Rocky Wirtz emerge in the Brown family and get Brohm out to Cincinnati Bengals.
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Would be shocked to see him at SC. He has no ties to Troy, important to such an insular athletic department.
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Oregon Live with multi part feature on what is wrong with the PAC12. Part three today
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2018/11/larry_scott_plays_a_game_of_ch.html
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Part 1
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2018/11/pac-12-larry-scott-leftout-part1.html
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Part 2
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2018/11/larry_scott_pac-12_officiating.html
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Part 4
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/index.ssf/2018/11/closing_the_door_on_the_pac-12.html
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That’s been a good series of articles. It’s not just Jon Wilner saying these things anymore.
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If I’m Bob Bowlsby, I’m calling Arizona and Arizona State to extend invitations to the Big XII.
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It certainly couldn’t hurt, but I highly doubt the AZ schools would leave the P12. I’m guessing they have a ton of alumni in CA that they don’t want leave. Also ASU’s president is one of the powers in the conference by most accounts. I just don’t think football money or success means enough to ASU or UA to go, especially since it would mean leaving the academics of Cal, UCLA, Stanford, etc behind.
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Arizona colleges pursue California talent — there are billboards here in Los Angeles for University of Arizona online degrees, frequent commercials for Grand Canyon University (now touting it’s a private, non-profit institution) and Arizona State’s school of mass communication soon will have a satellite branch at the only Los Angeles Herald-Examiner building on Broadway in downtown LA, a building architect Julia Morgan of San Simeon fame designed for William Randolph Hearst more than a century ago: https://carole-and-co.livejournal.com/931674.html
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Good example of how PAC12 schools, particularly Stanford, will Olympic sport championships. Their incoming mens’ gymnastics team includes four national champions. (I only got this press release since the son of a friend of mine is one of these recruits). https://gostanford.com/news/2018/11/16/mens-gymnastics-stellar-class-complete.aspx?fbclid=IwAR3DIG-XvmZ8qRmB4qbHkyfl5Vk0o-fPlzShNKJhdUm27vZYt0FT71Fxm10
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/brennan/2018/11/29/northwestern-football-ohio-state-big-ten-championship-rose-bowl/2142228002/
An interesting note about Pat Fitzgerald winning the B10 CotY award. This is probably the first time the CotY winner lost to Akron during the season.
Should going 8-4 (8-1) the year after going 10-3 (7-2) win the award? Usually the winner has the most surprisingly good season, but NW was expected to compete for the West title this year.
The options:
Most improved teams – MI (5-4 to 8-1), IL (0-9 to 2-7)
Best records – OSU, MI, NW (all 8-1)
Why didn’t Harbaugh win? Or Lovie Smith? What about Matt Canada keeping UMD from tanking completely? This award just seems to get stranger every year. They need to get past thinking of NW as a JV program. It was second in the division last year and WI fell apart this year.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/25419387/acc-network-set-launch-august-2019
… One week later, Georgia Tech and Clemson will face off in the first football game broadcast on the network.
…
Swofford said other schools are considering moving conference games to earlier in the season in order to offer better inventory and that at least one of the five games Notre Dame will play against ACC teams could be added during the season, as well. Swofford said he expects the full schedule of football games to be ready by early February.
“The thing that’s been really good from our schools is that they’re all in on the network,” Swofford said. “Everybody understands the importance of scheduling.”
As scheduling goes, however, Swofford said he didn’t anticipate any major changes in divisional alignments in the ACC, where Clemson and Florida State have had a decade-long stranglehold on the Atlantic, and the Coastal has placed six different teams in the league’s championship game in the past six years. Swofford said he also did not anticipate the league moving to a nine-game conference slate, as the idea has little appeal to the majority of athletics directors.
Swofford was also asked about playoff expansion, and he said there was little momentum for that in the near term. He added that, should the playoff expand to eight teams, he would likely favor keeping the league’s championship game and potentially eliminating a regular season game or starting the regular season earlier.
I wonder if ESPN will ever try to push the ACC to 9 conference games. All those cupcakes make for terrible ratings and cable companies might push back on being forced to pay a lot for the ACCN.
As a separate issue, does dropping to 11 games but keeping the CCG make sense? It’s good for hype but that’s 7-14 home games being lost. Does Disney pay the ACC enough for the CCG for that trade-off to make sense? Schools are losing ticket sales, food/merchandise sales and chances to beg fans and alumni for donations. Not to mention you risk knocking a team out of CFP contention.
As for starting the season earlier, I’m not sure the presidents will go for that. That’s a lot of games played before the students ever arrive for those using quarters. Besides, heat is already too much of an issue in practice. Is another week of grueling workouts in the summer good for players? More games in 90+ degree heat? The P12 schools already complain about too many night games and the AZ schools certainly don’t want to add yet another one every year.
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Here’s Awful Announcing’s take on the ACCN:
https://awfulannouncing.com/league-networks/acc-network-launch-date-georgia-tech-clemson.html
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I wonder if ESPN will ever try to push the ACC to 9 conference games. All those cupcakes make for terrible ratings and cable companies might push back on being forced to pay a lot for the ACCN
I think that would be pretty tough for the ACC to accept with the 5 ND games plus ACC/SEC crossover (GT/UGA, UL/UK, UF/[FSU|UM], Clem/SC) games.
As a separate issue, does dropping to 11 games but keeping the CCG make sense?
No. They’ll start early before that.
As for starting the season earlier, I’m not sure the presidents will go for that.
I’m sure we’ll see “week 0” be a permanent part of the schedule before too long.
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Mike,
“I think that would be pretty tough for the ACC to accept with the 5 ND games plus ACC/SEC crossover (GT/UGA, UL/UK, UF/[FSU|UM], Clem/SC) games.”
Tough but not impossible. USC and Stanford have 9 P12 games + ND. IA has 9 B10 games + ISU. Perhaps they could count the ND game or the SEC game as part of the 9 for the conference standings.
“No. They’ll start early before that.”
You’d think so. That’s why I thought it was strange he even mentioned it. Perhaps he knows how much the presidents will resist starting earlier so he was throwing out a less tolerable option to show them that all the choices are bad in some way.
“I’m sure we’ll see “week 0” be a permanent part of the schedule before too long.”
They have let a few games slip to week 0 but I’m not sure they will open it up completely any time soon.
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“Tough but not impossible. USC and Stanford have 9 P12 games + ND. IA has 9 B10 games + ISU.
I just don’t see the votes there. The ACC already tried this once, but ended up abandoning it.
Perhaps they could count the ND game or the SEC game as part of the 9 for the conference standings.
I don’t see that happening.
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I don’t think it’s likely to happen either, but I was working under the hypothesis of ESPN applying pressure to the ACC to make a change. Of course the ACC won’t voluntarily make the change unless the CFP or ESPN starts pressuring or punishing them.
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http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/11/michigan-ohio-state-ratings-fox/
The Game drew record ratings again.
Last Saturday’s Michigan-Ohio State college football game delivered a 7.5 rating and 13.2 million viewers on FOX, up 23% in ratings and 26% in viewership from last year (6.1, 10.5M), but down 20% and 22% respectively from the rivals’ 2016 meeting on ABC (9.4, 16.8M).
2018 – 2 top 10 teams, OSU blowout
2017 – MI unranked, 11-pt OSU win
2016 – 2 top 3 teams, OSU OT win
The ratings make sense based on the games.
The Buckeyes’ blowout win was the third-most watched game between the rivals since at least 1997, behind 2016 and 2006 (21.0M). “The Game” has now topped a 6.0 rating and ten million viewers in four straight years.
2006 was #1 vs #2 (both undefeated) and went down to the wire.
For the season, it ranks as the highest rated and most-watched college football game on any network. The previous highs were a 6.6 and 11.5 million for Alabama-LSU on CBS earlier this month.
It also delivered the largest college football audience ever on Fox Sports, excluding bowl games. The previous high was 13.0 million for the 2013 Ohio State-Michigan State Big Ten Championship Game.
The 7.5 rating ranks second all-time among Fox Sports college football games — again excluding bowls — behind the 2013 Big Ten title game (7.9).
I’m surprised it did that well. It wasn’t a great game. Maybe everyone enjoys watching MI get upset.
The game had an additional 145,000 viewers on Fox Sports GO, bringing the combined audience to 13.35 million.
Streaming this way is still a pretty small slice of the sports pie.
Games over 6M this season:
1. OSU/MI – 13.2M
2. AL/LSU – 11.5M
3a. OSU/PSU – 9.14M
3b. AL/AU – 9.13M
5. ND/USC – 7.74M
6. OSU/TCU – 7.23M
7. MI/ND – 7.09M
8. Miami/LSU – 6.55M
9. UGA/UF – 6.35M
10. OSU/PU – 6.29M
11. WI/MI – 6.04M
That’s 10 B10 appearances out of 22 with OSU in 4 of the top 10 games and 3 of the top 6.
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Watched the first half of the Utah/Washington game last night and went to bed. Is the PAC 12 really a P5 conference? More than half the seats in the stadium were empty, and the game itself was a boring defensive mess.
DirectV was showing the MAC championship game of NIU vs. SUNY Buffalo. That was an exciting game. And it further showed up the poor PAC 12 offering.
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The P12 really needs to rethink their CCG. They don’t have the fan support to stage a neutral site game, especially if neither team is a CFP contender. They had 9-3 UW vs 9-3 UU playing in Santa Clara on a Friday at 5pm locally. No part of that sounds attractive as a fan. They should move to playing on campus, and move the game to Saturday once their TV deal ends.
The P12 has a lot going against it:
* Geography
* Time zone
* Lower fan interest
* Lower presidential interest in CFB success
* No football person in charge of football
* Only 1 king program (USC)
Those things combine to hurt them financially (no DirecTV deal, less money from Fox/ESPN, fewer donations, lower ticket sales, etc). Their officiating has been terrible as well.
That said, if Chip Kelly turns UCLA around or USC finds another great coach suddenly the P12 will seem just fine. Remember what the B10 was like 10 years ago.
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Brian – With Oklahoma avenging their only loss, and winning by double digits over the #14 Texas team, I think your Buckeyes will have to stomp a mud hole into the smart kids tonight in order to be seriously considered for the playoff.
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I agree. Of course OSU’s performance doesn’t matter at all if AL doesn’t come back to beat UGA since there’s no way OSU gets in over AL.
As an OSU fan, I’d rather miss out on the playoff this year and have a legitimate complaint about getting screwed after AL destroys OU in the semifinal. But as a B10 fan, I want to see the B10 team get selected because the B10 got passed over last year too.
OSU’s loss to PU was ugly but OU’s abysmal defense should be punished, too.
Both have top 10 offenses in scoring and they are 1&2 in yards. OSU’s defense is about 40 spots higher than OU’s in points allowed and yards allowed.
OSU has a dominant win over #7, a win @ 12 and would have a win vs #21. OU has a split vs #14 and wins @ #16 and @ #23. Both teams won @ TCU fairly easily. Both would be 7-1 vs bowl eligible teams. OSU played 2 P5 teams OOC (OrSU and TCU) plus Tulane while OU played UCLA, Army and FAU.
OSU struggled against UMD and NE. OU went to OT against Army and struggled with OkSU.
OSU put up 62 on the #1 defense in the country last week. OSU also won @ the #14 defense and @ #21. Army is the only top 35 scoring D OU has faced, and we all know Army’s D is inflated by TOP. #37 ISU is the top P5 defense OU played. #42 TCU is the only other top 50 defense OU played and OSU also played them.
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Looks like I’ll get my wish. OSU needed another 59-0 type of performance but couldn’t deliver it.
Semifinals prediction:
AL vs OU in the Orange Bowl
Clemson vs ND in the Cotton Bowl
It would be better for the fans to swap the locations but I think they’ll protect AL by sending them east rather than letting #4 OU play in Dallas.
Other bowls:
Rose: OSU vs UW
Sugar: UGA vs UT
Fiesta: MI vs LSU
Peach: UF vs UCF
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Brian – I think West Virginia might sneak into the Sugar, rather than Texas.
#14 Texas lost today is now 9-4
#16 West Virginia is 8-3 and beat Texas
I hope LSU plays Michigan. We’ve never played the Wolverines in football. The Fiesta would be a sellout. Florida v UCF in the Peach makes way too much sense, ie sending two schools that don’t travel well to a drivable bowl. However, I get the feeling that it will be LSU/UCF in the Fiesta and Florida/Michigan in the Peach, since UCF played in the Peach last year.
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We’ll see. Traditionally the committee hasn’t punished CCG losers very much. UT split a neutral site series with #5 OU while WV lost at home. UT was ahead before, so I guessed that they would stay ahead. I did debate which B12 team to include.
You may be right. I didn’t think about UCF’s bowl last year. But they are supposed to consider geography so UF/UCF makes some sense. Maybe they go straight rankings and choose MI/UF and LSU/UCF. If they do, shouldn’t LSU/UCF be in the Peach? MI has to travel either way but as the higher seed they shouldn’t have to play closer to their opponent’s home than necessary.
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I think there will be a riot if UGA gets into the CFP as certain ESPN talking heads are advocating. Wins over UF and UK don’t make up for not winning your conference, not having a big OOC win and having 2 losses while OU and OSU only have 1 loss as P5 champs. ESPN’s own strength of record says OSU is #4 and the top 4 in SOR have taken 15 of 16 CFP slots.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-college-football-predictions/
538’s model is still flawed. They have ND barely being left out in favor of OU and OSU (72%, 66% and 61% odds of making it). There is zero evidence to support conference titles being valued that highly.
There are 6 new members on the committee this year, so maybe they throw us a curveball, but I’d be shocked if ND was left out.
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The Big 12 already said that Texas will go to the Sugar Bowl if OU makes the playoff, and Bowlsby reiterated that yesterday.
Apparently since the Big 12 Championship game matches up the #1 and #2 teams, going forward the Sugar Bowl participant will always be one of those two teams (except in the extremely unlikely event that both teams make the playoffs).
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That makes sense. I didn’t know that the conferences actually make the decision and not the CFP committee, but it’s good that the loser of the CCG isn’t punished in the B12. The other conferences can argue about which team is #2 due to divisions but not the B12.
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You nailed the Peach and Fiesta picks. It’s too bad. I think LSU/MI and UF/UCF would’ve been better for the fans. I think UCF fans would rather return to Atlanta than fly to Phoenix.
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Great year to have an 8 team playoff..
ALA-SEC
OSU-BIG 10
CLEMSON-ACC
OKLAHOMA-BIG 12
WASH-PAC 12
At large:
ND
UCF
Georgia
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I really hate those guys…
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Don’t we all.
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Now seems like a good time to look at the B10CG.
Stats:
Appearances:
WI – 5
OSU – 4
MSU – 3
IA, NE, NW, PSU – 1
Titles:
OSU – 3
MSU, WI – 2
PSU – 1
Divisions:
Leaders 2-1
East 5-0
(OSU/PSU/IN’s division 7-1)
I’d also like to note how impressive Dwayne Haskins’s season has been. He’s set 20 OSU records (not too hard considering OSU’s terrible QB history) and several major B10 single-season records (total yds, passing yds, passing TDs). It’s about time OSU had an elite passing QB. Too bad he’ll probably turn pro after just 1 starting season.
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I think the committee got it wrong in several ways:
1. OSU should’ve been 5 with UGA 6. Conference titles need to matter. Better wins and fewer losses need to matter. This committee has overrated the SEC all season long.
2. There is no reason to reward OU for avenging their loss to UT. That’s purely luck of the schedule. I’m not saying not to reward them for beating #14 in the CCG, but they specifically noted OU avenging its only loss and that bothers me.
3. I’m not convinced ND should’ve been #3. Other than MI in week 1 (before MI started to play well), who did they beat? Syracuse and NW? I think they still give the 0 losses too much deference. OU is better than ND.
As expected:
Orange – #1 AL vs #4 OU
Cotton – #2 Clemson vs #3 ND
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Brian – at the risk of sounding like a homer, I fail to see how the SEC was overrated this season.
Alabama – as much as it pains me to write this, the 2018 Alabama squad is the most complete team I’ve seen in person and I’ve seen a lot of football games since 1984. Rankings aside, they beat a 2 loss UGA, 3 loss LSU, 4 loss Mizzou, Miss St, and A&M. While an argument could be made that Clemson is better, it’s not based on their resume.
Georgia lost to Alabama but had a chance to win in the last minute. They lost on the road to an inspired LSU team, but soundly beat Florida, a 3 loss Kentucky, Mizzou, and bowl bound Ga Tech and South Carolina. I think that’s a better resume than Michigan.
Washington is the highest rated 3 loss team at 9. They lost to Auburn in the opener. A few weeks later, 11 LSU beat Auburn at Jordan-Haire. Penn St is 12. Do you think they should be ranked ahead of either Florida or LSU? Should Syracuse or West Virginia be ranked ahead of Kentucky?
Regarding 4 loss teams, Texas and Utah are ranked ahead of the SEC’s trio of 4 loss teams – Miss St, A&M and Mizzou.
Some seasons there aren’t 25 “top 25” teams, but they still have to rank them. The only unranked P5 3-loss team is NC State. The only unranked P5 4-loss teams are Iowa, Stanford and Oregon. How have any of those teams been jolted by the over rated SEC?
Also, there’s only one ranked 5 loss team and it’s not Auburn or South Carolina, but a B1G Northwestern team That list to Akron.
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Pardon the typos. I wrote the previous post on my phone.
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Alan,
“Brian – at the risk of sounding like a homer, I fail to see how the SEC was overrated this season.”
I linked an article about it a couple of weeks ago. Somehow the middle tier of teams just keeps staying in the middle of the polls no matter if they lose games.
“Alabama”
Nobody doubts AL should be ranked highly.
“Georgia lost to Alabama but had a chance to win in the last minute. They lost on the road to an inspired LSU team, but soundly beat Florida, a 3 loss Kentucky, Mizzou, and bowl bound Ga Tech and South Carolina. I think that’s a better resume than Michigan.”
LSU crushed UGA. The next week UGA crushed UF. MO crushed UF the week after that. But UF is a top 10 team? Who did UF beat OOC? 5-7 FSU and 3 cupcakes. That’s why they’re only a 3-loss team. Same with UK. They played nobody OOC. The same with MO. SC lost to every ranked team they played. The best OOC win from the entire SEC East may be UGA over a mediocre GT.
The SEC teams have better records because they play 8 conference games, get byes before tough games and in general play few decent OOC teams. AL and UGA were the only SEC teams with fewer than 3 conference losses.
“Washington is the highest rated 3 loss team at 9. They lost to Auburn in the opener.”
In a game UW should have won that was essentially a road game.
“A few weeks later, 11 LSU beat Auburn at Jordan-Haire. Penn St is 12. Do you think they should be ranked ahead of either Florida or LSU?”
Yes.
“Should Syracuse or West Virginia be ranked ahead of Kentucky?”
Yes.
“Regarding 4 loss teams, Texas and Utah are ranked ahead of the SEC’s trio of 4 loss teams – Miss St, A&M and Mizzou.”
UT and Utah had to play 9 conference games and had 4 losses. The SEC teams toook an easier path to those losses.
“Some seasons there aren’t 25 “top 25” teams, but they still have to rank them. The only unranked P5 3-loss team is NC State. The only unranked P5 4-loss teams are Iowa, Stanford and Oregon. ”
The problem is looking at it based on number of losses. Easier schedules make for fewer losses.
“Also, there’s only one ranked 5 loss team and it’s not Auburn or South Carolina, but a B1G Northwestern team That list to Akron.”
They didn’t have 5 losses before the CCG.
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Brian – the only ranked SEC team that lost to a team with a losing record was Kentucky losing at Tennessee the week after its SEC East dreams were crushed by Georgia. The only others losses to teams not currently ranked are Mizzou at South Carolina (7-5 and ranked for one week) and A&M at Auburn (7-5 and ranked for 8 weeks and beat P-12 Champ Washington). To sum up, out of 23 losses by SEC ranked teams, only one to a team with a losing record, 2 to un-ranked bowl teams, and the rest to teams currently ranked.
OOC for ranked SEC teams: Alabama beat ACC Louisville (dumpster fire); UGA beat ACC GA Tech (bowl team); Florida beat ACC Florida State(talented but a mess); LSU beat ACC Miami (bowl team); Kentucky beat ACC Louisville (see above); Miss State beat B12 K-State (5-7), A&M lost at home to ACC Clemson 28-26, and Mizzou beat Purdue (bowl team that beat B1G champ Ohio State).
OOC for unranked SEC teams: Auburn beat PAC-12 champ Washington in Atlanta; South Carolina gained 600 yards in a loss against ACC Champ Clemson; and Vandy had a chance to beat playoff bound Notre Dame with a little over a minute to go.
Sure, as a season ticket holder, I wish the SEC played 9 conference games, but the ACC plays 8 conference games as well. Until the CFP penalizes them, I don’t expect things to change. With 11 bowl participants, two 5-7 teams, and Arkansas, I think the CFP committee’s respect is warranted.
Comparing the SEC schools to the teams you think have been wronged:
Washington lost to a currently unranked 7-5 Auburn, to go along with 7-5 Cal and 8-4 Oregon; beat a 6-6 BYU team, a ranked Utah team twice, and a ranked Washington St. LSU and Florida didn’t lose to any currently unranked teams. And LSU beat Auburn on their campus, not Atlanta.
Three ranked wins, but three unranked losses.
Penn State barely beat Champ App State, lost to B1G Champ Ohio St and unranked Michigan State at home, and on the road to Michigan. Penn State’s best wins were a home win against 8-4 Iowa, and at 7-5 Pitt.
No wins against currently ranked teams and a home loss to an unranked team.
West Virginia beat SEC Tennessee in Charlotte. Their other OOC game was against FCS Youngstown State. Their game against NC State was cancelled due to weather. They beat a ranked Texas team in Austin, but lost to a 6-6 OK State. West VA also lost to a ranked Iowa State that struggled against FCS Drake yesterday and at home to B-12 Champ Oklahoma.
One win against a ranked team, two losses to ranked teams, and one loss to a .500 team.
Syracuse lost to playoff teams Clemson and Notre Dame. They also lost to 7-6 Pitt. The Panthers best win was against 9-3 but unranked NC State.
Two good losses, one unranked loss and one unranked victory.
Northwestern lost to Duke (7-5) and Akron (4-8). You can’t ding the SEC for OOC games and overlook this. Akron. Northwestern’s two best wins were against Iowa (8-4) on the road and Wisconsin (7-5) at home. Their two best games were losses to Notre Dame and Ohio State.
No wins against ranked teams and losses to Duke and Akron.
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Alan,
“Brian – the only ranked SEC team that lost to a team with a losing record was Kentucky losing at Tennessee the week after its SEC East dreams were crushed by Georgia. The only others losses to teams not currently ranked are Mizzou at South Carolina (7-5 and ranked for one week) and A&M at Auburn (7-5 and ranked for 8 weeks and beat P-12 Champ Washington). To sum up, out of 23 losses by SEC ranked teams, only one to a team with a losing record, 2 to un-ranked bowl teams, and the rest to teams currently ranked.”
In other words, the SEC was full of cupcakes at the bottom this year with a middle tier full of parity. That doesn’t make that group good.
“OOC for ranked SEC teams: ”
Not a single win over a ranked team. That doesn’t make them better or worse as teams, but it might explain their good records.
“OOC for unranked SEC teams:”
1 win over a ranked team, and 2 losses. No other games of note.
“Sure, as a season ticket holder, I wish the SEC played 9 conference games, but the ACC plays 8 conference games as well.”
They do and I criticize them just as much for it. But the ACC stunk this year for the most part so they didn’t get the same treatment as the SEC.
“Until the CFP penalizes them, I don’t expect things to change.”
Me neither.
“With 11 bowl participants, two 5-7 teams, and Arkansas, I think the CFP committee’s respect is warranted.”
Or teams played 4 cupcakes and only needed to win 1 or 2 games in a league with plenty of weak teams this year.
“Washington lost to a currently unranked 7-5 Auburn, to go along with 7-5 Cal and 8-4 Oregon; beat a 6-6 BYU team, a ranked Utah team twice, and a ranked Washington St. LSU and Florida didn’t lose to any currently unranked teams.”
I didn’t say UW was wronged. They are ranked above UF and LSU as they should be.
Also, there you go using number of losses as a way to compare teams again. That might well be 9-3 OR (and thus ranked) and 8-4 Cal if the P12 got the easy schedules the SEC did.
“And LSU beat Auburn on their campus, not Atlanta.”
I was saying UW was playing a virtual road game vs Auburn, not LSU.
“Penn State barely beat Champ App State, lost to B1G Champ Ohio St and unranked Michigan State at home, and on the road to Michigan. Penn State’s best wins were a home win against 8-4 Iowa, and at 7-5 Pitt.”
In other words, they beat the SB champ, barely lost to #6 and crushed an ACC division champ. MSU might be ranked if they didn’t have to play OSU, MI and PSU as well as the West champ. PSU also played 9 conference games and 10 P5 games.
“West Virginia beat SEC Tennessee in Charlotte.”
And UK lost to them.
“West VA also lost to a ranked Iowa State that struggled against FCS Drake yesterday and at home to B-12 Champ Oklahoma.”
WV played OU as closely as UGA played AL and you keep touting that performance.
I’ll also note that the AP poll has WV ahead of UK so I’m not alone in feeling that way.
“Syracuse lost to playoff teams Clemson and Notre Dame. They also lost to 7-6 Pitt. The Panthers best win was against 9-3 but unranked NC State.”
“Northwestern lost to Duke (7-5) and Akron (4-8).”
NW won their division. That’s the only positive thing I really have to say about them. They were solidly decent.
“You can’t ding the SEC for OOC games and overlook this.”
Sure I can, because NW is only #22. That’s a whole different argument from being top 10.
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Brian – I just looked up strength of schedule through yesterday.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/season-sos-by-other
Top 10
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. LSU
4. Texas A&M
5. Miss State
6. Mizzou
7. Michigan
8. Auburn
9. South Carolina
10. Florida
Maybe I’m misinterpreting this data, but it looks like SEC teams have 9 of the 10 strongest schedules, even with their cupcakes.
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There are many ways to calculate SOS and they don’t even explain theirs.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/sos-basic-by-other
To prove the point, here’s a different SOS ranking from the exact same people.
1 UCLA (3-9) 7.3 1 63 2
2 Pittsburgh (7-6) 6.8 2 106 17
3 Texas A&M (8-4) 6.1 3 127 8
4 Texas (9-4) 5.7 4 42 6
5 Missouri (8-4) 5.5 4 115 5
6 Georgia (11-2) 5.3 6 105 36
7 Purdue (6-6) 5.3 3 43 7
8 Michigan St (7-5) 5.3 1 108 1
9 Indiana (5-7) 5.2 7 70 9
10 LSU (9-3) 5.0 1 47 14
That’s a very different list, so clearly people can get the result they want.
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
Sagarin’s SOS top 10:
1. UCLA
2. TN
3. Pitt
4. TAMU
5. LSU
6. UGA
7. PU
8. MSU
9. NW
10. FSU
Some SEC teams, but not nearly as many.
In my version of SOS, 9 conference games and/or 10 P5 games is rewarded. A bye/cupcake in November and/or always before a rivalry is punished. So is refusing to ever leave the state (UF) or play true road games unless forced by a locked rivalry. I most definitely don’t base SOS on pure W/L records.
Just to show I’m not crazy:
Sagarin’s rankings:
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Georgia
4 Ohio State
5 Michigan
6 Oklahoma
7 Notre Dame
8 Mississippi State
9 Washington
10 Penn State
14 LSU
17 TAMU
19 UF
27 UK
Now I’d say his system is crazy to have MsSU so high and UF is probably too low, but there are objective systems that disagree with the CFP’s evaluation.
And to be clear, this isn’t just a right/wrong topic. There are a range of valid opinions on SOS and how teams should be ranked. I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that I disagree with you.
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The SEC upper middle class is just weak this year. I’ve seen Kentucky a few times. They are good for Kentucky, but still not that good. And they are 2nd in the east and 4th or 5th in the whole conference. Florida’s high ranking is a joke. They got dismantled by Georgia, Kentucky and Missouri. The big margins in those games were misleading-it should have been worse. They get way too much credit for handing LSU their first loss. Mississippi St. beat all the teams they were supposed to and did well at home, but weren’t particularly competitive with the best teams. Texas A&M is probably the only one who is a little underrated.
I think people just thought Alabama and LSU were better than they actually are. I don’t think there is much difference between the top 5 teams this year. Alabama is the best, but not by that much. They demolished the rest of the conference other than Georgia because the rest of the conference isn’t as good as usual. I’ve seen nearly all of Georgia’s games and while very good, they have a lot of flaws. Alabama and Georgia both had better teams last year.
In fairness, the “upper middle class” seems to be weak across college football this year, not just in the SEC.
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Other bowls games featuring ranked teams.
Citrus: #12 Penn St. v #14 Kentucky
Holiday: #17 Utah v. #22 Northwestern
Alamo: #13 Wash St v #24 Iowa St
Camping World: #16 West VA v #20 Syracuse
Outback: #18 Miss State v Iowa
Gator: #19 Texas A&M v NC State
Liberty: #23 Mizzou v OK State
Servpro: #25 Boise St v BC
Las Vegas: #21 Fresno St v Ariz St
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https://twitter.com/NicoleAuerbach/status/1069421866715136002?s=19
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Interesting that Delaney concludes with a remark about being with 4 teams “in the short term.”
Over 5 seasons of the CFP 4 of the P5 conferences have been represented by exactly 2 schools each, the BIG 12 by only one. How much does the dominance of Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Ohio State in receiving/contending for playoff slots diminish support for the current format?
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I wouldn’t think it’s a huge factor since CFB has always been that way. Over time the top tier rotates a little (it was USC and UT 13 years, Miami back in the day, etc). I think seeing 11 SEC/ACC teams versus 9 from the rest of CFB (37 P5s + 65 G5s) has a much bigger impact.
I think the CFP is more likely to revamp the selection process than to expand in the short term. Eventually it probably will expand to 8, but I think that will be a while. It’s easier logistically to see if they can improve the process before having to mess with the calendar.
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Seems obvious, but still interesting to see.
It’s the beginning of the end of satellite TV in the US
https://qz.com/1480089/att-just-declared-the-end-of-the-satellite-tv-era-in-the-us/
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I don’t buy it. Plenty of people live in areas where satellite is the only option. DirecTV may be going away, but many of their 20M subscribers may need to go to Dish. Cable/fiber just isn’t an option for many people and I don’t think phone lines can provide streaming TV for millions of people very well.
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Another issue is that this “end of satellite” can only work in areas served by A T @ T cable. I don’t see Comcast or Spectrum allowing customers in their service areas to install cable boxes to be served by A T & T.
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Another issue is that this “end of satellite” can only work in areas served by A T @ T cable. I don’t see Comcast or Spectrum allowing customers in their service areas to install cable boxes to be served by A T & T.
Not a lot they can do to prevent someone from installing a streaming service.
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If the streaming service works off of a cable box, can’t the cable co simply not activate the box? I have Spectrum and if we move a cable box from one TV to another, Spectrum has to reactivate it. I cannot just add a box, unless it is a Spectrum box.
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I guess it would be very hard for Spectrum to prevent me from plugging in an internet connected “box” (“device” or “stick”) from AT&T to my TV. Maybe I’m not understanding your comment?
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I probably do not understand how they would do it, unless all of the TV channels were actually available as on-line options. Maybe they will be
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Mike, they couldn’t. If you were tampering with their box that would be another issue. I bought my wife a Fire Stick for her birthday. We just plugged into the TV and stream through our wireless network. The irony is our internet is provided by Spectrum.
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Frank tweeted this out, but ICYMI:
2018 Big Ten TV Facts & Figures
https://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2018/12/2018-big-ten-tv-facts-figures.html
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A couple of interesting tidbits:
* The combined number of regular season primetime games played or intended to air on broadcast television was five, down from seven in 2017.
* Over two seasons, Illinois is the only Big Ten school not to play on FOX. All FOX Sports appearances have been on FS1.
* Rutgers had ten appearances on BTN for the 2nd straight year. They have not appeared on an ESPN platform as part of the current contract structure.
I think this shows that RU hasn’t been bringing the NYC TV audience. If they were, ESPN would be airing their games too. Success on the field would help them (and IL) tremendously.
As a side note, I used to read Frank’s tweets on here (I’m not on Twitter) but they no longer display on the page. All I get now is a broken link to his Twitter account.
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Pretty interesting. Big 10 shares the money but not the exposure. Conferences often have minimums and maximums built into their contracts.
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I believe the B10 has those limits as well, but they group the networks by reach so ABC and ESPN are one group while ESPNU is different. They certainly have max and min limits for BTN.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2018/12/100250/urban-meyer-announces-retirement-following-rose-bowl-ryan-day-to-take-over-as-ohio-states-next-head-coach
I’m sure you’ve all heard by now, but Urban Meyer is retiring after the Rose Bowl. Apparently Ryan Day will take over as head coach.
Meyer’s career so far:
17 seasons (13 in P5)
186-32 (0.853)
3 national titles
7 conference titles (3 B10, 2 SEC, 2 MWC)
11-3 in bowl games
26-2 in rivalries (against BYU, UGA/TN/FSU/Miami, MI); 32-3 if you count PSU
7 seasons at OSU:
82-9 (0.901)
54-4 in B10 play (0.931)
1 national title
3 B10 titles
7 division titles
4-2 in bowls, 2-1 in the CFP
7-0 vs MI
6-1 vs PSU
Meyer has had an amazing career, but in some ways I am slightly disappointed in his tenure at OSU. Part of it is not his fault as he might well have added another B10 title and possibly the national title in 2012 (ND was very beatable but ranked #1) if Tressel hadn’t screwed up. But the shutout in the CFP, the stubborn refusal to make changes in coaches or scheme, the albatross losses to IA and PU, and the offseason scandal add up as well. Don’t get me wrong, I love all the wins and realize we’ll never maintain this sort of record again. But the backdrop of AL and Clemson doing even more over the same period diminishes what he did a little.
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I should also point out that Meyer is the first OSU football coach to retire of his own volition since Wes Fesler in 1950 (he felt the pressure to win from fans was too much). Woody Hayes, Earle Bruce, John Cooper and Jim Tressel were all forced out. Meyer will also continue OSU’s string of Hall of Fame coaches (every permanent HC since Wes Fesler started in 1947).
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/25430618/applications-michigan-state-university-drop-larry-nassar-sexual-assault-scandals-espn-lines
This may be the biggest impact on MSU of the Nassar scandal. MSU’s fall applications this year were down 8.3% from last year.
David Hawkins, executive director for educational content and policy with the National Association for College Admission Counseling, said Michigan State’s 8.3 percent application decline is unusual for an institution that has such strong brand recognition and degree programs that are in demand by prospective students.
“As a parent … you look at the culture of a school and you determine, ‘How comfortable will I feel with my son or daughter at this institution?’ … It’s possible that certainly student-athletes, particularly women, might not feel particularly supported in light of what’s happened at Michigan State,” Hawkins said. “Michigan State has had a very difficult time dealing with this issue.”
MSU spokeswoman Emily Guerrant attributed the application declines to demographic shifts in Michigan and the Midwest: a lower number of high school graduating seniors, low birth rates and migration during the last recession, as well as a decline in applications by international students due to changes in federal visa and immigration processes.
Over the same time period, other Big Ten schools on average saw a 4.7 percent increase in applicants, with rival Michigan seeing 9.7 percent more applications. Among the five next-largest public schools in Michigan, two saw applications increase by 19 or more percent; two saw a drop of less than 5 percent; and Eastern Michigan declined 13.2 percent. Penn State was not included in the Outside the Lines analysis for 2018 because a spokesperson said its application number is not yet available.
In a March media release, Michigan State touted its incoming freshman class of 8,442 students for 2018-19 as “the largest and most diverse in the school’s history.” The university admitted a larger percentage of the students who applied to reach the record number, however; for the fall of 2018, the admission percentage was 77.7 percent, up from 65.7 percent in 2016, and is MSU’s highest accepted-student percentage in a decade.
The 8.3% drop is nothing compared to Missouri dropping 22.5% and certainly other factors can influence the application rate.
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Maryland hiring Bama assistant Mike Locksley, who won the Broyles Award, which goes to the nation’s best assistant coach. https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/12/4/18104885/mike-locksley-maryland-coach-hired
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2018/12/05/usa-gymnastics-files-bankruptcy-nassar-lawsuits/2218546002/
USA Gymnastics filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection today. They say it is to speed up the victims getting paid since mediation has failed to produce meaningful progress towards a settlement. Others think they did it because the USOC had begun the process to strip USAG of their status as a national governing body.
Earlier this year, Michigan State agreed to pay $500 million to settle lawsuits with hundreds of Nassar’s victims. In financial statements released last month, USA Gymnastics estimated it would cost between $75 million and $100 million to settle the lawsuits. Months of mediation have failed to produce a settlement, and Carson said the board decided it was best to let a bankruptcy court decide the claims.
“It is true we have participated in mediation. Those discussions were not moving at any pace at the current time,” Carson said.
The claims will be paid by USA Gymnastics’ insurers because the federation does not have those kind of assets, Carson said. While USA Gymnastics is still negotiating with the insurance companies on the limits of coverage, Carson said they have been “cooperative.”
“Our expectation is that they will come to the table and pay on our coverage,” she said.
…
USA Gymnastics is fighting the complaint, and Carson acknowledged that that played a role in the decision to file for bankruptcy. In addition to staying legal and administrative claims, Chapter 11 protection prevents assets from being taken away from a debtor.
Why is USAG getting off so lightly compared to MSU? Nassar had a lot of victims via USAG, didn’t he?
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https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1070678340095410177
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https://247sports.com/college/penn-state/Article/Big-Ten-targeting-Oklahoma-Sooners-Texas-Longhorns-125965141/
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The link is broken. Apparently they took down the article. There is a little message board discussion of the article here:
https://247sports.com/college/penn-state/Board/18/Contents/Big-Ten-targeting-Oklahoma-Texas-for-expansion-125975564/
Psu96 wrote:
I believe the Oklahoma site “unpublished” the story. As an admin for this site, I can still see it, I guess. For those who didn’t read it, the Big Ten source used for the article indicated that the conference would make an attempt to bring Oklahoma and Texas into the Big Ten. It all revolves around media rights money. The Big Ten’s current deal expires in 2022 and Fox Sports is making good money from their purchase of BT media rights currently. This means even more money for the conference in the next go-round while the Big 12 is looking at falling even further behind the BT, SEC and ACC.
PSURocks401 said this:
Did anyone even read the article? They want to get rid of divisions altogether
I’m all for dropping divisions and just locking a few games for each team. We don’t need to expand to do that. I wouldn’t favor pods because I think they get too messy for the B10.
No divisions or pods:
9 games = 3 locked rivals + 6 rotating games against the other 12 teams
3 * 100%, 12 * 50%
4 year schedule cycle
Divisions:
9 games = 7 locked rivals + 2 rotating games against the other 8 teams (25%)
7 * 100%, 8 * 25%
8 year schedule cycle
Pods:
9 games = 3 locked rivals + 4 games against a rotating set of pods + 2 rotating games against 1 team from each remaining pod (may be a locked rivalry instead)
3 * 100%, 12 * 50%
12 year schedule cycle
But what are the pods?
UT, OU, NE, IA
WI, MN, NW, IL
IN, PU, MI, MSU
OSU, PSU, RU, UMD
Then you have to lock IA/WI or IA/MN (and diminish the other one) plus OSU/MI at the least.
No thanks. Going back to one big conference sounds much better.
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Here is a link that works: https://247sports.com/college/oklahoma/Article/Big-Ten-targeting-Oklahoma-Sooners-Texas-Longhorns-125965141/Amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Its all sourced back to Greg Flugaur who (IMO) enjoys throwing things against the wall. If I were a betting man, I’d bet he’s looking for followers. He’s not exactly taking a huge leap, IF the Big Ten were to expand, they’d probably prefer to expand with the two most valuable schools remaining. Flugaur and Greg Swaim are just less known versions of “the Dude.”
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Flugaur’s twitter if you are interested: https://twitter.com/flugempire
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Mike – you’re right. Clay Travis could have easily written “SEC targets UT & OU in next realignment round” just as Jon Wilner could have written “Pac-12 targets UT & OU in next realignment round”. Texas and Oklahoma are to two most valuable brands in the least stable conference. Geographically, they are a fit for the Pac-12, B1G, or SEC.
Unless the ACCN is a complete flop, the Big XII is probably the only conference that teams can be poached from in the next round. Then, maybe, a UCF, Houston, Cincy, or UConn can play up to a P5.
The two big questions will remain:
1. How do you incorporate the Longhorn Network into a new conference or can Texas get out of it?
2. Can Texas and Oklahoma separate themselves from their little brothers?
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He’s only reporting that the B10 is targeting them, not that they are coming. It’s fluff but at least he isn’t predicting anything (yet).
Supposedly Bowlsby shot down the notion of adding G5 teams.
Another kind of related things:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/12/05/another-playoff-snub-has-big-ten-thinking-about-ditching-its-division-format/
WaPo says the B10 is thinking about realignment of the conference again.
Speaking Wednesday at the Sports Business Journal Intercollegiate Athletics Forum in New York, Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany said conference decision-makers have discussed making changes to the Big Ten championship game so that it would feature the two best teams, not the division winners.
“It’s an item that has been discussed before,” he said. “There is actually more discussion now than there was four years ago.”
…
Delany reiterated Wednesday that the Big Ten has no plans to stop playing nine conference games per year — “We’re a conference that wants to play each other a bunch,” he said — even though the SEC and ACC only require their teams to play eight, giving those programs a chance to pad their schedules with another easily winnable nonconference game. Softer schedules have not seemed to hurt either of those conferences: Of the so-called Power 5, only the SEC and ACC have had a playoff representative in each of its first five seasons.
How would the B10CG have been different? It depends on how they’d pick the top 2 teams.
2014:
Old: #5 OSU vs #13 WI
New: #5 OSU vs #8 MSU maybe (WI and MSU both 7-1, didn’t play each other)
2015:
Old: #4 IA vs #5 MSU
New: #4 IA vs #5 MSU
2016:
Old: #6 WI vs #7 PSU
New: #2 OSU vs #7 PSU maybe (both 11-1, 8-1; WI and #5 MI were 10-2, 7-2)
2017:
Old: #4 WI vs #8 OSU
New: #4 WI vs #8 OSU
2018:
Old: #6 OSU vs #21 NW
New: #6 OSU vs #7 MI (OSU, NW and MI were all 8-1; MI beat NW and had better ranking)
All rankings are CFP rankings before CCG weekend.
Not a huge difference. I doubt a second win over MI would’ve gotten OSU to #4 this season.
But I could see Fox paying more for the game this way, plus the regular season gaining value as more games are seen as mattering.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/12/06/jim-delany-big-ten-divisions-realignment-playoff
SI has a little more from Delany.
Delany also addressed discussions surrounding the Big Ten’s decision to play nine conference games compared to the SEC’s and ACC’s eight.
“[The playoff] doesn’t define us,” Delany said. “I’m going to be disciplined about it. I know the quality of our football. I know our players, I know the coaches, I know the competition. What we created in our structure is not exclusively for the CFP. It’s for the season-ticket holder, it’s for the players, it’s for our institutions to build a conference. That’s why they play nine. If we wanted to get in and that was the holy grail, the No. 1 objective, maybe we would be at eight. Maybe we would be playing [more FCS opponents]. But that’s not the only objective.”
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Ah yes, Flugaur and his infamous BTM (Big Ten Man). He’s been right on some Minnesota issues but I’m not sure of his track record about larger issues.
Bullet points from the article:
* Fox is thrilled with their revenue from B10 sports (ratings -> high ad rates)
* Both the B10 and Fox want more in the next deal, and UT + OU helps both
* OU is negotiating a new tier 3 deal so the B10 had to talk to them (through a third party) now to show them how much more they could make in the B10 in 2025 so they should sign a short term tier 3 deal
* LHN is no longer an insurmountable problem
* The B10 and ACC will both push for CCG reform to allow dropping divisions, not just for a better CFP chance but also because it ups the value of the TV deal
And some others from his twitter:
* Many P5 insiders feel OU will leave the B12 in 2025 no matter what
* UT doesn’t think it can go independent successfully (no NBC deal like ND has)
* P12 (travel) and SEC (following TAMU) are not viable options for UT
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Conference championship games TV ratings info:
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/12/alabama-georgia-ratings-sec-championship-cbs/
SEC
Saturday’s Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship Game earned a 10.1 rating and 17.5 million viewers on CBS, up 26% in ratings and 30% in viewership from last year (Georgia-Auburn: 8.0, 13.5M) and up 53% and 58% respectively from 2016 (Alabama-Florida: 6.6, 11.1M).
The Tide’s comeback win ranks as the highest rated and most-watched college football game, excluding bowls, since LSU-Alabama on CBS in 2011 (11.5, 20.0M). That was a matchup of the nation’s top two teams.
It also ranks as the highest rated and most-watched SEC Championship Game since Alabama-Florida in 2009, another #1 vs. #2 matchup (11.1, 18.0M).
Overall, Saturday’s game delivered the fifth-largest non-bowl audience since 1991 and the second-largest audience in the history of the SEC Championship (began in 1992).
CBS ended the season averaging a 3.4 rating for SEC games, up 13% from last year and the highest average rating for any college football package this season.
ACC
Last Saturday’s Clemson-Pittsburgh ACC Championship Game earned a 2.5 rating and 4.24 million viewers on ABC, down 22% in ratings and viewership from last year (Clemson-Miami: 3.2, 5.43M) and down 24% and 21% respectively from 2016 (Clemson-Virginia Tech: 3.3, 5.34M).
The Tigers’ win ranks as the lowest rated and least-watched ACC title game since 2012, the last time the game aired on cable (FSU-Georgia Tech: 1.2, 1.97M).
B1G
The Big Ten Championship Game hit a four-year ratings low.
Last Saturday’s Ohio State-Northwestern Big Ten Championship Game scored a 5.0 rating and 8.66 million viewers on FOX, down 32% in ratings and 33% in viewership from last year (Ohio State-Wisconsin: 7.3, 12.9M) and down 6% in both measures from 2016 (Penn State-Wisconsin: 5.3, 9.19M).
Big XII
A Red River Rivalry rematch delivered the largest Big 12 audience in nine years.
Last Saturday’s Oklahoma-Texas Big 12 Championship Game earned a 6.2 rating and 10.16 million viewers on ABC, up 63% in ratings and 72% in viewership from last year on FOX (Oklahoma-TCU: 3.8, 5.90M). There was no Big 12 title game from 2011-16.
The Sooners’ win delivered the highest rating and viewership for a Big 12 conference game in nine years — since the 2009 Big 12 Championship (Texas-Nebraska: 7.5, 12.7M). Excluding bowls, it was the top game involving a Big 12 team since Texas faced Notre Dame on the opening weekend of the 2016 season (6.4, 11.0M).
Pac-12
Last Friday’s Washington-Utah Pac-12 Championship Game had a 2.6 rating and 4.06 million viewers on FOX, up 13% in ratings and 11% in viewership from last year on ESPN (USC-Stanford: 2.3, 3.66M) but down 24% and 28% respectively from 2016 on FOX (Washington-Colorado: 3.4, 5.67M).
The Huskies’ win was the lowest rated and least-watched Pac-12 Championship on broadcast television (five telecasts). It was also the least-watched of this year’s “Power 5” conference championships.
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From my post above:
“CBS ended the season averaging a 3.4 rating for SEC games, up 13% from last year and the highest average rating for any college football package this season.”
The SEC’s deal with CBS expires at the end of the 2022 season. CBS currently pays the $55 million per season for their package, including the SEC championship. This has to be the most undervalued deal in all of college football. The SEC partnered with CBS back in the 1990s when exposure counted more than money. I’m guessing that the next contract goes for $200 million per year?
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I’m amazed they haven’t renegotiated the deal. I know CBS isn’t obligated to do it but the SEC has to be upset about the hundreds of millions they’ve missed out on over the years. It might give another bidder a leg up in the next negotiations if anyone else competes for it. Too be fair, CBS did agree to lose exclusivity in the window as part of not upping the deal when the SEC expanded and added the SECN. That was a significant concession on their part.
Years ago people said there was no way the SEC would renew with CBS. Has that changed?
I think the value of the deal depends on a lot of factors:
* Who will bid for it? FOX and ESPN don’t seem to have room. Would NBC try to pair it with their ND deal? Will a tech company step in?
* Will it move to night games instead of 3:30? Would either side want that?
* Do/can any other parameters of the deal change?
Some reference points:
NBC had a strong year with ND and averaged 3.5M viewers (~ 2.2 rating)
CBS averaged a 3.4 rating this season with the CCG pulling a 10.1.
Ballpark numbers:
CCG – $50M
Regular GotW – $20M
20*14 + 50 = $330M (I think they get 15 games)
I’d guess they should average over $300M (over $20M/school) depending on the length of the deal and what all rights it includes.
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https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/cbss-sec-deal-was-a-steal-what-happens-next/
Clay Travis wrote about this on Halloween.
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Its only one game a week. Its worth a lot more than $55 million, but not worth $200 or $300 million. $8 million times 14 games? Not sure how the ccg fits in with this contract. Notre Dame’s contract for 6 games is in the vicinity of $20-$25 million. That’s only $4 million a game. Since this is a choice, its worth more than that, but not 5 times as much.
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The sources I found said it included the CCG and there are 1 or 2 doubleheaders.
From Clay Travis (linked above):
Yes, just $55 million total for 14 regular season SEC games and the SEC title game, a grand total of 15 games.
That equates to roughly $3.7 million per league game.
That’s insanity.
Putting that number into perspective, ESPN will pay over $110 million per Monday Night Football game. And the audiences aren’t that dissimilar. An average Monday Night Football game on ESPN draws about twice what an SEC game in the afternoon draws on CBS.
Since the B10CG was worth around $25M when it was brand new. I think $50M for the SECCG starting in 2023 is reasonable. I scaled from there based on the ratings CBS pulls for the GotW versus the CCG. If you think the value is $40M instead, scale appropriately.
Nobody really knows what NBC gets paid. They’ve always said it’s higher than the reported number. NBC is also hostage to what sort of season ND has. In the down years ND pulled some terrible ratings.
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The PAC-12 game was truly bad. And playing next to it (on DirectV at least) was an excellent MAC game.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25471482/sec-commissioner-greg-sankey-says-ucf-knights-fix-strength-schedule-issue
Greg Sankey was a bit of a jerk to UCF.
Southeastern Conference commissioner Greg Sankey on Thursday said UCF should look “inward” to address the strength-of-schedule issues that have held back the Knights in the College Football Playoff rankings.
Central Florida was ranked eighth in the final playoff rankings by the selection committee Sunday after finishing a second consecutive regular season undefeated.
There isn’t a lot UCF can do about SOS. The AAC is what it is, leaving UCF just 4 games to make up the SOS.
1. How many P5s are willing to play them?
2. Of those, how many are willing to play at UCF?
3. Of those, how many would actually help UCF’s SOS?
4. How is UCF supposed to balance their budget if most P5s demand home games?
NCAA rules require them to play at least 5 home games I believe, and 6 seems like the practical limit. Could they get 2 home games against P5s to go with 2 road games?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/12/07/florida-ad-stricklin-would-welcome-2-for-1-series-vs-ucf/38693071/
A good example right here. UF’s AD says he’d be happy to play a 2 for 1 with UCF. I don’t blame UF for that offer. That makes perfect sense from their POV. But how is UCF supposed to improve their SOS if they can’t get a home and home?
The CFP has to become more advanced in how it gauges teams. They have to find a way to look past just SOS to the quality of the team. If the Patriots were in the AAC, they’d have a perfect record and a terrible SOS. That wouldn’t make them any worse as a team.
UCF was 3rd in the nation in scoring margin so it’s not like they played many close games. I’m not saying UCF deserved a playoff berth, but flippantly telling them to up their SOS isn’t helpful either. Even if UCF played 4 SEC teams OOC, their SOS would still lag all the P5s. Are we literally telling them they can’t make the CFP no matter what, or at least not unless total chaos destroys the P5s? We all know that’s close to true, but there has to be some path that looks beyond SOS to evaluate team quality.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/12/07/hugh-freeze-liberty-football-coach/2236886002/
Liberty’s turn to the dark side appears to be complete. Previously they hired Baylor’s disgraced former AD and now they are hiring Hugh Freeze as their head football coach.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/big-east-commissioner-hints-potential-154155673.html
Some expansion news. The BE commish spoke on the subject.
The Big East made an important move for the conference’s future over the weekend by securing another 10 years at Madison Square Garden for the league’s annual conference tournament.
…
The timing of the Big East’s extension at MSG also gave league commissioner Val Ackerman the chance to address some questions — including some talk of potential league expansion. Adding members has always been a touchy subject for the 10-team conference, since all of the schools have a very specific profile while all being basketball-focused schools.
But UConn always gets brought up with regard to the Big East — as the AAC has never felt like a natural fit for the Huskies. There are also other schools probably doing whatever they can for a shot at playing the Big East’s conference schedule and national television deal. The league itself has been coy about adding other teams until Ackerman spoke this weekend.
2 tweets from the article:
“If we go to 11 (schools), we could keep the double Round Robin.” – Val Ackerman on any possible addition.
“If we were to expand in the future, it would allow us to be flexible with our schedule.” – Val Ackerman.
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/12/10/18134521/aac-tv-deal-big-12-expansion
The AAC is seeking a long term Grant of Rights from its members in order to get a larger TV deal. Their current deal expires in 2020. SBJ reported it first but is behind a paywall.
Right now, the AAC’s TV deal pays out a little less than $2 million per school per year, per SBJ. That number should jump in a new TV deal no matter what, but with a GOR, it could potentially jump to $6-8 million, or even higher. For a school like USF or Memphis that makes less than $50 million in athletic revenue in a given year, even a modest increase could go a long way.
But signing over your TV rights in exchange for more money takes Big 12 membership in 2025, or movement into another other Power 5 league, off the table. Sure, earning $8 million a year from TV is pretty good. But the Big 12 paid out over $33 million to each school last year. Even if that number declines somewhat with more schools getting pieces of the pie, the payout from any power league is miles bigger than what the AAC could offer.
…
Getting a GOR done would be the best outcome for the AAC institutionally, and probably the best thing for schools like East Carolina and Tulsa. But unless they can convince schools that might have realignment opportunities to give those up, it’s hard to see a deal getting done.
…
The SBJ also reported the AAC has explored top schools getting bigger payouts than others, which would be a change from the league’s current model.
…
Unequal revenue can make it harder for the smaller schools in a league to improve, and can create resentment that can boil over and even threaten a league. A bigger check might help keep UCF and Cincinnati around for now, but what about the next time they need Tulane or Temple to vote a certain way?
…
Beyond fatter paychecks, maybe the biggest reason a school would want to leave the AAC is to get better access to the College Football Playoff. UCF’s last two seasons have laid plain how difficult (or even impossible) it is for a Group of 5 team to make the field.
But what if the Playoff expands to eight teams after the end of the current contract with ESPN after the 2026 season? An eight-team playoff, especially if one bid were guaranteed to a non-power conference, would be much easier for an AAC team to make.
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Here’s the non-paywalled SBD story:
https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2018/12/10/Colleges/AAC.aspx
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/olympics/2018/12/10/usoc-larry-nassar-sex-abuse-case-hammered-report/2262885002/
USOC and USAG got hammered in a new report detailing how they failed to protect athletes during the Nassar scandal.
In its executive summary, Ropes & Gray said Nassar’s ability to abuse athletes for nearly 30 years “is a manifestation of the broader failures at USAG and the USOC to adopt appropriate child-protective policies and procedures to ensure a culture of safety for young athletes.” Both USAG and the USOC had governance structures and policies in place that “had the effect of allowing abuse to occur and continue without effective intervention.”
The report also found Penny and Blackmun, who were then serving as CEOs of USAG and the USOC, respectively, “engaged in affirmative efforts to protect and preserve their institutional interests – even as Nassar retired from the sport with his reputation intact and continued to have access to girls and young women at the college, club and high school levels.”
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Click to access ropes-gray-full-report.pdf
The full 233-page report.
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Frank is tweeting… might there be a new post soon?
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Doubtful unless something actually happens with UConn or the AAC. We haven’t even hit 800 comments on this article. Last time I think we got to 2000, but that was with me posting heavily.
For those not following twitter, Frank’s discussion is about UConn. As I noted the AAC is talking about giving more money to the top 5 schools (UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston) to entice them to sign the GoR. Note that UConn is not on that list. That might be a reason for UConn to consider leaving for the Big East.
The question then is what to do with UConn football. Frank says it’s independence or drop it entirely with I-AA as the worst possible choice because it’s still expensive and brings in no money.
I wonder if enough schools are gathering to make independence work. You already have UMass and Army. UConn would make a third team in the region. Then there are the western independents (BYU and NMSU) and Liberty in VA. As a football-only conference (really just a scheduling agreement) that would get them each 5 games, leaving plenty of room for other rivalries, regional games and/or P5 games. But if some other northeastern schools ever want to move up to I-A, there’s a decent core to build around for a small conference. Potentially they could steal Buffalo from the MAC.
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It could be the beginnings of a MAC split that I have thought would eventually happen – a new G5 NE being those east independents (UMass, UConn) plus Buffalo, and some Ohio MAC schools and perhaps Delaware and some VA schools. The MAC could re-orient westward with additions of Illinois State, ND State, UNI and others.
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I don’t see it. The Ohio MAC schools are closely knit and short travel distances apart. None of them want to play on the east Coast a lot unless the money goes way up, which it won’t. I think the MAC core of OH, MI and IN schools is solid.
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I’m with you Brian. I just don’t see the Ohio MAC members leaving. After all they make up 1/2 the conference.
What do you think of the Ray Day hire? I’m keeping an open mind. It’s seems as thought there will be continuity with the staff and a couple of top recruits have affirmed they’re commitments to the Buckeyes. I also love the Buckeyes offense.Time will tell.
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The UConn football situation is very instructive with regard to Rutgers. There are constant comments (on forums, Facebook, etc.) saying that RU should not have joined the B1G. My response has always been – look at UConn. Athletic department in serious financial trouble with no bail out in sight. UConn football floundering. I also paid a great deal of attention to the lack of UConn on the list of teams to be induced (bribed?) to stay with the AAC. In a few years, RU may
(will) still stink, but the athletic dept will have much more money and maybe even stable. I also point out the academic advantages of the B1G, but the focus always goes back to how much football stinks.
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Francois McGillicuddy sounds like the villian in a John Wayne movie.
Fox Sports tapped longtime sports media veteran Francois McGillicuddy to run Big Ten Network as President, a position that has been open for nearly a year. McGillicuddy replaces Mark Silverman
https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Closing-Bell/2018/12/10/BTN-President.aspx
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/sports/ncaa-applicants/
A detailed look at how sports success impacts applications for a university.
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There are weird seasons, and then there’s the Maryland men’s soccer team’s.
The Terrapins — who’d had superb regular seasons in 2016 and ’17 only to stumble early in the NCAA tournament — started really slowly in 2018, going 0-3-2 and not scoring for 476 minutes. But they ended as national champions, beating Akron for the third title under Sasho Civorski (2005, 2008) and fourth overall (tying with MSU in 1968).
Seeded 11th for the tourney, they ended with five straight shutouts in NCAA play, the first four over teams which like Maryland are better known for hoops (NCSU, Duke, Kentucky and Indiana)…and didn’t allow a goal in their last 499 minutes.
More on this unexpected title at https://www.testudotimes.com/maryland-terps/2018/12/10/18133727/ncaa-mens-soccer-college-cup-akron-national-champions-season-recap.
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Good post, Frank.
Your reasoning above is why I have wondered, if expansion comes around again, the 2 targets in my mind for the BIG10: Colorado and Arizona State. LOTS of connections to Phoenix on that chart (and daily flights from most BIG10 cities).
Just my musings.
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Can ASU ditch UA? If not, a Colorado/Kansas (or CU/Oklahoma — they are contiguous) tandem is possible. Would the Pac swallow its pride and then pursue Boise State, Brigham Young or Colorado State for team 12?
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Honestly I don’t think they would. BSU was a community college not too long ago. BYU has cultural/academic/religious issues that the P12 schools wouldn’t tolerate. CSU is the little brother school to CU and nobody wants to be seen chasing them after losing CU.
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FWIW the Big Ten turned down ASU Hockey. Three Time Zones for the Big Ten might be a little much.
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CU just left the B12 for the P12. They have a huge number of alumni in CA and very few in the midwest. CU has no interest in the B10. Likewise ASU has no motivation to travel to the midwest with all their sports.
And on the flip side, what would the B10 gain? ASU’s academics are subpar for the conference. Neither is a major brand in football or hoops. They’d add huge travel costs and time zone issues and dilute the TV money.
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Perhaps the B1G and PAC 12 should coordinate any future expansion to create a bridge from the Midwest to the Coast. How about Kansas, Kansas St., Iowa St., (all AAU, I think), Oklahoma, Texas and maybe Missouri. Get both conferences to 16 members. Encourage or require more interconference play between them.
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I see several problems with that idea:
* KSU is definitely not AAU (the rest of your list is).
* MO is not leaving the SEC.
* What value would KSU or ISU bring to either conference? Nobody in either footprint cares about KSU and the B10 already has Iowa. Little brother schools rarely add financially to a conference.
* The P12 is already spread over 2 time zones. I don’t think they want to spread to the central for anyone but UT and OU. Those are also 2 of the 3 schools that the B10 might bother expanding for.
* 16 isn’t a magic number. The new additions need to add more to the conference financially than they hurt it by diluting rivalries and culture.
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Not advocating for it, but wouldn’t UT/OU and a couple others exiting B12 effectively reduce the number of power conferences to four and bring a subsequent increase in value, possibly making the lesser adds a net gain?
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Yes it would reduce it to the P4 and give each of the P4 a little more leverage with networks, but it wouldn’t inherently increase the value of the product in question. KSU and ISU don’t have large enough fan bases to drive sufficient cable TV subscriptions, nor do they have big enough brands to bring a national TV audience. The B10 already has Iowa so ISU would add nothing. KSU is not an academic option for the B10. The P12 and ACC are too far away for either to be a net positive. The SEC has zero interest in getting little brother schools in small midwestern states, especially non-AAU ones like KSU.
I think the increased value would accrue to the AAC/B12/MWC mashup that would form afterwards. Those G5 schools would gain tremendously. And obviously wherever OU and UT land will make money.
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KSU and Iowa St (or OkSU/TT) would be nearly irrelevant to the proposal. There would , assuming the advent of P4, be only four entities for the broadcasters to bid on. Even if the UT/OU plus two went west I’d assume bidding for B1G, ACC, and SEC rights to become more urgent. Considerable broadcast shelf space open with no B12 content filling it.
PS: time zone concerns are BS (purely the easiest of red herrings) unless we’re going back to travel only by train and bus.
KSU probably left out. Pac academia only slightly less “snobby” than Pac. Only hope is if required by UT or OU, and those dance cards are taken.
But nothing’s likely at all. UT remains a big fish in a small pond, even when on a lengthy down period.
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…less “snobby” than B1G.
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ccrider55,
“KSU and Iowa St (or OkSU/TT) would be nearly irrelevant to the proposal.”
They were 2 of the schools bob sykes named and you didn’t specify which other 2 schools were going so I discussed them in particular. All the same arguments against KSU apply to OkSU and TT. They may be the cost of getting UT and OU, and a price the P12 is willing to pay, but they don’t add value by themselves.
“There would , assuming the advent of P4, be only four entities for the broadcasters to bid on.”
Not really. The AAC/MWC/B12 amalgamation would be almost a P5 and would get a decent TV deal. Besides, the networks only have so many TV windows and can only sell so many ads. I don’t think dropping from 5 to 4 does much by itself to raise prices. Having new bidders (FAANG companies for example) would do a lot more.
“Even if the UT/OU plus two went west I’d assume bidding for B1G, ACC, and SEC rights to become more urgent. Considerable broadcast shelf space open with no B12 content filling it.”
Except the P12 would have a lot more inventory to sell and the P12 and B12 have the same TV partners. The Fox and ABC/ESPN families already struggle to fit their current inventory into the available windows on networks.
http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2018/11/2018-big-12-tv-facts-figures.html
UT, OU, TT and OkSU combined for 10 of 15 B12 appearances on ABC and 12 of 17 on Fox this year. All of those would just move to the P16. Also 5 of 11 on ESPN, 3 of 8 on ESPN2 and 8 of 34 on FS1. The other 17 appearances were on minor networks (ESPNU, FSN, LHN) and just 4 of those would go. FS1 and ESPN could easily show AAC/MWC/B12 games to fill the gaps.
“PS: time zone concerns are BS (purely the easiest of red herrings) unless we’re going back to travel only by train and bus.”
No, it really isn’t. Early starts don’t draw fans from the west. Late starts lose fans from the east. And long plane trips are a problem for Olympic sports traveling during the week and not having all the support CFB and MBB get academically.
“KSU probably left out. Pac academia only slightly less “snobby” than [B1G]. Only hope is if required by UT or OU, and those dance cards are taken.”
KSU and ISU have no shot. Baylor and TCU have essentially no shot. WV’s shot is the ACC or SEC (both unlikely). KU has a chance at the B10 or SEC. UT and OU can go wherever they want and OkSU and TT have to hope they get to tag along.
“But nothing’s likely at all. UT remains a big fish in a small pond, even when on a lengthy down period.”
Agreed that the status quo always has the best odds. What’s interesting is if OU looks to leave because they can’t get a B12N for exposure (they make decent T3 money). UT is happy with the B12 as is but would they stay if OU was leaving? I doubt it.
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“Not really. The AAC/MWC/B12 amalgamation would be almost a P5 and would get a decent TV deal. ”
Respectfully disagree. It would reduce the amount of exposure for conference(s) that just became more attractive.
“UT is happy with the B12 as is but would they stay if OU was leaving? I doubt it.”
Chicken or egg. OU was supposed to be leaving with OkST but “supposedly” turned down by Pac. OU isn’t leaving before UT is, unless Oklahoma politics allow them to alone, and B1G offers them by themselves.
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More Wilner on PAC Troubles:
When Scott needed approval for something, he went to the presidents, and they allowed that dynamic to continue through the era of momentous change. Scott managed-up, and did so deftly.
There was just one problem: A commissioner with no background in college sports was reporting to presidents and chancellors with little-to-zero conception of college sports.
The athletic directors, many of them lifers in collegiate athletics and armed with deep institutional knowledge, were squeezed out of the decision-making process.
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For the cord cutters out there
https://www.vox.com/culture/2018/12/11/18131021/netflix-friends-gone-streaming-cord-cutting
It strikes me as inevitable that cord-cutting consumers will eventually return to the place they were trying to escape when they subscribed to any given streaming network — and in that place, they’ll likely find an expensive monthly bill that bundles together a bunch of different services and keeps escalating in price as more and more are added.
And since cable companies currently control a lot of the US’s broadband connections and have experience in grouping channels into tiered packages, they’re probably going to end up at the forefront of whatever this new movement looks like.
This evolution won’t take years. With both Disney and WarnerMedia planning to launch their services in 2019, it’s likely going to happen in a matter of months. The cable bundle died so its souped-up younger brother could live.
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Been awhile since I’ve checked in here…..
Just thinking that if Academics were thrown out that West Virginia would bring excellent opportunities for rivalry building in the east with Penn State, Maryland, & Rutgers. Could play up the academic difference and really become a “villain” in conference.
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https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1072988315530469377
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I find Sankey’s comments somewhat comical given the Big Ten’s history with the Rose Bowl. The Rose Bowl was always the most watched CFB game of the year (prior to the BCS) and yet the Big Ten reluctantly gave that up for what has turned out to be a southern invitational tourney.
As things currently stand, the B1G and Pac 12 lost out big time. I think Delany was planning to hold onto the Rose Bowl access but it was the Pac 12 that preferred to move on.
At this point I would be in favor of the 8 team playoff with quarterfinal games on campus. I also think you would have to eliminate CCG’s due to the academic calendar. Somehow I wish they could still make the Rose Bowl a prominent annual event.
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Rose Bowl (B1G/Pac) a permanent semi final, their ccg’s as qtr final. Restores Rose Bowl and assures conf champs as semifinal, at least on one side of bracket.
Now ask me if I care how they choose to arrive at the other finalist…
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The college football championship playoffs has wrecked the bowl system, invalidated conference championships and severely damaged conferences themselves. Only a very small handful of colleges (6, 4?) have benefited from the the playoffs, and almost all have been hurt in revenues, attendance and interest. The PAC 12 conference championship is a good example. The stadium was at least half empty.
If you want to save the Rose, Orange, Cotton, Sugar and other bowls and interest in college football, get rid of the playoffs, do not expand them.
I should not be surprised if total bowl revenue is down since the institution of the playoffs.
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I’m not sure the CFP had any impact on the P12CG this year. You had UW playing Utah in Santa Clara, CA at 5pm on Friday night. That time slot is horrible but Fox forces it on the P12 to avoid all the games on Saturday.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/12/13/nicolas-chauvin-french-rugby-player-dies-after-tackle/2298597002/
Just a reminder that all contact sports are dangerous.
A 19-year-old French rugby player died Wednesday night after breaking his neck on a tackle.
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Chauvin is the second French rugby player to die this year after a tackle on the field; Louis Fajfrowski of Stade Aurillacois died in August.
You often hear people say that football should get rid of the helmets (like rugby) to make play safer because then players wouldn’t lead with their heads.
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Of course helmets were introduced not to stop concussions, but to stop deaths. Its a ridiculous idea.
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There are teams doing helmetless tackling drills to teach/instill better technique. Helmets weren’t implemented to be a weapon, but they was the overwhelming byproduct of this safety innovation. Tackling technique changed to take advantage of this weapon.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2018/12/13/college-football-bowl-game-industry-espn/2286401002/
A good look at the business of bowl season.
Schools and their leagues earned a collective profit of $448 million from last year’s bowl games, according to NCAA documents obtained by USA TODAY. That’s $561 million in bowl payouts, minus $113 million in expenses associated with participating in the games, including the $25 million they lost on unsold tickets.
Most of that bowl payout money ($465 million) came from only six games: the Cotton, Peach and Fiesta bowls, plus the three games of the Playoff (Rose, Sugar and championship). That money was shared with leagues and teams that did not participate in those games, such as those in the Bahamas Bowl. For example, $15.4 million of Conference USA’s $18.6 million in bowl payout money came from those top-tier games despite its not having a team in them. Nine teams from Conference USA went to bowl games last year and racked up a combined $5.2 million in expenses, including UAB in the Bahamas, according to NCAA documents. If not for that playoff money, Conference USA would have been $2 million short of covering those expenses.
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https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/soccer-headers-cause-more-brain-damage-in-female-players/
A recent research article found that soccer headers cause more brain damage in female players than in men.
Repeatedly heading a soccer ball exacts a toll on an athlete’s brain. But this cost—measured by the volume of brain cells damaged—is five times greater for women than for men, new research suggests.
The study provides a biological explanation for why women report more severe symptoms and longer recovery times than men following brain injuries in sports.
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Lipton’s team used magnetic resonance imaging to peer into the skulls of 98 adult amateur soccer players—half of them female and half male—who headed the ball with varying frequency during the prior year. For women, eight of the brain’s signal-carrying white matter regions showed structural deterioration, compared with just three such regions in men (damage increased with the number of reported headers). Furthermore, female athletes in the study suffered damage to an average of about 2,100 cubic millimeters of brain tissue, compared with an average of just 400 cubic millimeters in the male athletes.
Lipton does not yet know the cause of these sex differences, but he notes two possibilities. Women may suffer stronger whiplash from a cranial blow because they generally have less muscle mass than men to stabilize the neck and skull. Alternatively, a dip in progesterone, a hormone that protects against swelling in the brain, could heighten women’s vulnerability to brain injury during certain phases of their menstrual cycle.
Very few of the players studied had any concussion history. Obviously the next steps are larger samples and following up to see if there are long-term consequences. Since a child’s brain is more vulnerable than an adult’s, this adds more urgency to the effort to reduce or eliminate the use of headers in youth soccer.
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Women’s skulls are also thinner than men’s.
Perhaps the header should be banned from soccer, at least from youth soccer.
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Are you saying women have been right to call men thickheaded all these years?
But seriously, the links I found online say the reverse is true.
https://ohsonline.com/Articles/2008/01/Study-Womens-Skulls-Thicker-Mens-Wider-Might-Affect-Protection-Design.aspx
According to a new imaging study of 3,000 people using the latest in imaging analysis techniques, women’s skulls are thicker than men’s, and both shrink slowly in adulthood. The average skull thickness for men is 6.5 millimeters, and the average for women is 7.1 mm.
Women’s skulls were a little smaller on average (about 3% in each horizontal dimension), obviously, which makes this thickness difference even bigger.
Men do have thicker foreheads, though, which is relevant for headers.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science/7725655/Men-developed-thicker-foreheads-and-jaws-due-to-fighting-over-women.html
Winning a mate used to depend only on physical prowess and men with the strongest jawline and thickest skulls were better able to survive onslaughts from love rivals.
That meant that over time all men developed thicker bones in the jaws, around the eyes and on the forehead than women.
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Dr David Puts, whose findings are published in Evolution and Human Behaviour
Perhaps the thicker forehead explains the difference. Perhaps it’s a combination with the thinner skull elsewhere being a little more flexible and reducing the injuries. Perhaps it’s something else altogether (amount of fluid in the skull, fluid pressure in the skull, etc.).
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http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/25573273/senators-chuck-schumer-orrin-hatch-set-introduce-federal-sports-gambling-bill
Here comes the sports gambling legislation.
The key points:
* No “intergity fees” for the leagues
* Must use data provided or licensed by the leagues
* Allows betting on the Olympics and college sports but would ban it on other amateur sports (like HS)
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Betting on the Olympics could be very problematical. Obviously some, such as NBA players at the Olympics, cannot be corrupted, since they make too much money. The vast majority of Olympians make very little. With the exception of high profile stars in high profile events (swimming, gymnastics, and a few others), even gold medal winners with sponsors just get by. Others personally subsidize their own sports. $1,000 per month from the USOC does not go very far. (Our son competed in Rio, so we know). If serious money is gambled on people who have very little, the possibilities are endless. This is not like college teams (which is also a bad idea), since at least the schools have more control than the US Olympic Committee.
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https://theathletic.com/719675/2018/12/18/college-football-playoff-expansion-conversations-jim-delany-big-ten/
The article is behind a paywall but some of you may be subscribers. The key quote is below:
Add Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany to the growing chorus calling for an examination of the CFP structure now, well before the end of the Playoff’s initial 12-year contract with ESPN ends in 2026.
“The Big Ten would be happy to discuss structure issues with colleagues,” Delany told The Athletic. “It’s probably a good idea, given all of the conversations and noise around the issue, to have discussions with our colleagues.
“The Big Ten would definitely have conversations.”
That’s about as pro-expansion as you’ll ever get from Delany. I doubt anything changes until after he retires though. I still think it goes the full 12 year contract at 4 teams before any changes are implemented.
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Agreed. That is not endorsing any enlargement, but not pushing against which is surprising. The SEC I think is strongly against which matters a lot, but I odds of this coming increased a lot.
Not a fan of expansion in the slightest, but think the tea leaves are pointing that way. That said, I agree the 12 year contract will probably run its course.
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It is not uncommon to hear people argue for reducing the scholarship limit in CFB. Just recently Dan Wolken wrote this piece suggesting a drop to 70 to reduce the dominance of superpowers in CFB.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/dan-wolken/2018/12/19/ncaa-can-create-more-college-football-parity-reducing-scholarships/2360842002/
But the NCAA, if it had the willpower and the mandate from its masses, could start to create more parity with the snap of its fingers. All it would take is cutting scholarships down to 70.
Though many coaches would disagree, the 85-scholarship limit has not only become outdated but also allowed for the kind of extreme roster bloat that lets superpowers stockpile talent with minimal consequence for mistakes in how they evaluate talent and which players they choose to spend time recruiting in the first place.
…
Of course, adjustments to the entire sport would have to made to accommodate such a big change, but let’s not act like reducing scholarships would ruin the sport. In fact, teams have made due for years with 70 as the limit for travel rosters to road games, and unless there are extreme circumstances, no more than 45 or 50 are playing meaningful snaps in a game.
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• Get rid of the redshirt rule and give players five years of eligibility to accommodate for injuries or attrition during the season.
• Convert five of the lost player scholarships to coaching scholarships. In other words, each year, teams should be able to give a scholarship to someone who is interested in pursuing the coaching profession as a career. These students would do much of the work that currently goes to analysts and interns like breaking down film or recruiting databases or self-scouting.
• Take the other 10 scholarships and redistribute to other sports so that schools aren’t decreasing the total number of educational opportunities they offer. Surely sports like baseball (which gets 11.7 scholarships) or soccer (9) could use the help.
I take issue with several of his points:
Current travel rosters do cap at 70 players. But in part that’s because the rest of the squad are injured, redshirting to develop (OL adding weight/strength, etc) or players who are only useful in practice. Cutting the scholarships to that level will not leave 70 healthy players ready to compete at the I-A level. Many teams don’t even bring the full 70 now because they don’t have that many. Besides, we keep seeing more emphasis on player safety and on expanding the season. Reducing the roster size would only exasperate the health issues. More players should be sitting out rather than playing through injuries like they do now, plus players should face fewer impacts. Losing 15 spots means a lot more reps in practice and in games for everyone and thus a lot more impacts.
You can eliminate the redshirt but that doesn’t make everyone ready to play as freshmen. The best true freshmen already do play. The redshirt rule isn’t what is keeping most of them off the field.
Those coaching scholarships sound like student coaches, graduate assistants and interns (who are students). We already have those. And does anyone believe Alabama would drop an analyst who is a former CFB or NFL coach because they get a student coach?
I get that distributing the scholarships to other male sports would keep the same number of opportunities, but wouldn’t coming into Title IX compliance dropping those be a higher priority? Some schools can afford to add enough opportunities for women, but most can’t (or at least don’t).
Perhaps a better option would be to reduce the number of walk-ons so more players take scholarships at other schools rather than paying to play for a superpower. But that might reduce opportunities for the economically disadvantaged.
For a comparison, NFL coaches are pushing to expand their rosters because 46 active (53 total) isn’t enough with modern safety measures:
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25581612/sean-payton-new-orleans-saints-wants-46-man-roster-rule-change
If the NFL is adding spots and the NCAA is lengthening the season, is reducing the roster the correct plan?
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Don’t see that going anywhere. The smaller players would love it because it would increase competition (the effect of going down to 85 cannont be overstated enough), but the big players will push hard against it at this point and that will matter more.
Beyond that, an increase in that number would probably make more sense than a decrease. You have kids there for 4 years, some of whom are periodically going to be hurt/uninterested/etc. You want plenty of backups and even at 85 get pretty short at positions now sometimes.
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I agree with your first paragraph. The big names get to stockpile players and allow themselves more errors in player evaluations. They will strongly oppose a reduction.
I disagree with the 2nd paragraph. Getting the talent that wants to play is what the coaches are supposed to do to earn their multi-million dollar salary. Most schools have over 100 players with many walk-ons. There is absolutely no need for 85 now except to allow for mistakes. Other than QB, they aren’t so much short at positions as simply not having backups who are very good. So what? The NFL once had 40 man rosters. They want to expand from 46/53. That’s a WHOLE lot lower than 85 + walk-ons. Its an argument to reduce the number of college scholarships.
Reducing it to 75 or 70 makes a lot of sense for economics and Title IX. What’s happening is true male “student”-athletes are getting squeezed by Title IX and football.
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Endorsed.
Byproduct would be reducing the perception, if not the actual fact of non P5 schools inherent disadvantage. Perhaps allowing for their being able to continue to be scheduled by P5 schools for the AD financial need and not being strictly considered lambs to the alter.
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I have to disagree.
The NFL can have such small rosters for multiple reasons:
1. They can replace players that are injured (IR) or fail to perform (cut). CFB can’t and shouldn’t do that, so they have to have sufficient depth at every position going into the season such that they can sustain a rash of injuries at any one position and still have healthy, capable players available.
2. The NFL has lower standards. CFB suspends players for actions that the NFL largely ignores. That again requires a larger roster.
3. The NFL has players whose job is playing NFL football. CFB has to deal with students and all the off the field demands on their time. Having such limited practice/prep time requires more players.
4. The NFL has true adults. CFB has young men who still need to grow up. Life issues have a bigger impact on CFB players than they do on the pros.
5. The NFL gets proven, physically developed players. CFB recruits unknown quantities who are still growing and often need years of physical development before it is safe for them to compete.
6. Growing bodies are more susceptible to injuries, especially brains.
7. CFB games have more plays than NFL games. More plays lead to more impacts and more injuries. It isn’t safe for players to take lots more hits.
8. The NFL players are pros. They are being paid well to risk their lives. CFB players are amateurs, most of whom will not play professionally. They need their brains still intact for the rest of their lives.
In an era where more and more attention is being paid to impacts and brain damage, it would be ludicrous to cut the roster size in CFB. It’s begging for a lawsuit. Besides, it would reduce the quality of the product and thus cost most schools money.
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70 still allows schools to stockpile talent. The imposition of the 85 limit was supposed to stop it, too. If you are serious about stockpiling, reduce the scholarship limit to 22, 11 for offense and 11 for defense.
Or go the D III route, no scholarships.
If you are concerned about small players, impose a weight limit, say 240 pounds. That was the size of down lineman 50 years ago.
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Don’t need to impose wt limits. Just return to a level of limited substitution as in early ‘60s or before. Incentivize using multi faceted players that are not so limited by the current specialization’s physical requirements. Shouldn’t eliminate the possibility of a freakishly athletic 300 pounder that has endurance to play both ways and punt or kick.
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I would do both, a weight limit (limit injuries) and a substitution limit.
Of course, the NFL would have a fit.
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I think the limited substitution is a good idea. You see those giant defensive players with hands on their hips after an 8 play drive. It would actually be good for their long term health, let alone the reduction in the violence of contact (250-275 running at full speed and falling on you is just not the same on the body as 325-350). It seems to me like there are a lot more delays in play for leg and ankle injuries.
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https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/pac-12-media-strategy/
A roundtable discussion with 3 media experts on the P12’s media strategy.
Some highlights:
What is your view on the Pac-12’s strategy to own their media company instead of partnering with another media company as peer networks have done?
Tom Stultz – President, JMI Sports, LLC: You have to go back to when the Pac-12 did its deals with ESPN & Fox. …
The true value of the conference’s strategy won’t be fully known until the next round of rights negotiations. The Pac-12 will have more options available to it than any other conference because of the rights it has retained. Whether or not that pays off will be clear once those negotiations occur.
AJ Maestas – Founder & CEO, Navigate Research: Although it may have made distribution more difficult, it perfectly fits their mission and charter. No one can predict the future, but no sports property I know of regrets their decision to take equity in their own network. I think it was very smart at the time and long-term will prove to be the right decision, even if they are feeling some short term pain. If the Pac-12 had followed the Big Ten/SEC model, it would have committed itself to a disadvantaged position in perpetuity.
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Where do you see sports media rights valuations heading in the future, and how does that view impact your view on the best media strategy?
Stultz – The media rights landscape is an interesting one because it has become so complicated. On the one hand, I am concerned about the erosion of paid subscribers to cable and satellite services. … At the same time, we are all watching carefully to see if there some of the tech companies or other new media companies who will begin to play in this space.
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In addition, the changing viewing and media consumption habits of emerging fan bases makes the situation even more uncertain. As a result, if I base my answer on history, I would predict that valuations will continue to increase. However, I do believe the best media strategy is the one that provides each institution and conference with the most flexibility while still doing everything possible to maximize the value of the rights today and into the foreseeable future.
Hillary Mandel – Head of Media North America, Senior Vice President, IMG Media: In a shifting media landscape, demand for premium content is strong and steady. … Interest in college content remains strong and ticks important digital boxes in terms of volume and demographics.
Maestas – I am confident the market price of quality content will grow, and grow at a rate well above inflation. If this proves to be true I would want to be a producer and/or owner of quality sports media rights, and I would want to retain as much flexibility as possible on how and when I sell those rights.
How has the emergence of OTT technology, and media consolidation such as AT&T/Time Warner merger, in the past few years changed your view of the value of sports media rights?
Stultz – The full impact is yet to be felt or known. … Sports content is still appointment television. Sports highlights and features are in huge demand. And most of the new media and technology companies considered most likely to enter the sports live event and feature content space are extremely well-financed. All this provides new opportunities that hopefully will more than offset the erosion of the traditional paid subscription cable model.
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Mandel – OTT technology and desire for media companies to have a direct relationship with the consumers is driving up demand for live sports content so prospects for rights holders remains strong. Interestingly the consolidation of ATT/Time Warner, and even Disney and FOX, has not had an adverse effect or constricted the marketplace.
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Maestas – On one hand, consolidation is bad for sports media rights because it means less bidders and bidders who have more buying and distribution power. Media consolidation should be offset at least partially by the new OTT players, and as consumers have more and more options to leave the traditional bundle, the value of content comes down to two questions: 1) Will people pay for it in some form or fashion? 2) Will people still watch it live? The first question is the most important, but if you can answer yes to both – and live sports is one of the few content types where that is true – you’re in good shape no matter how the landscape unfolds.
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What is your assessment of the drivers behind the current difference in revenues among the Power 5 conferences as it relates to fan bases and other factors?
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Maestas – The Pac-12 has sacrificed some revenue to serve their charter and greater mission with the Pac-12 networks, but I don’t think it’s as much as people think. The reality is that the Pac-12 doesn’t have the affinity, ratings, attendance and other key variables to justify Big Ten or SEC money. Don’t get me wrong there are extremely attractive things about the Pac-12 footprint. They are also serving a different mission or at least a different set of priorities in achieving that mission. In short this is the natural economic order and to expect the Pac-12 to earn SEC or Big Ten revenue is naive.
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Other questions:
Come 2024 when the Pac-12 media rights go back to market, what are your thoughts on the position they will be in?
What do you make of the expense and revenue comparisons between conferences and how to do value the networks?
The Pac-12 has received a fair amount of criticism across a number of fronts of late. Your views on the fairness of these critiques?
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Clownzano’s take is negative:
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/2018/12/want-to-buy-a-stake-in-the-pac-12-conference-its-exploring-taking-on-private-equity-partners.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I wonder if it’s not the start of next media rights negotiation. What if the private investor(s) is Google, or Apple, or …? Not sure I see this possible strategy as the negative Scott detractors do. PAC retaining 90% equity flexibility is retained. Plus it doesn’t lock “itself to a disadvantaged position in perpetuity.”
Half a $billion investment seems large, but it’s less than Phil Knight has given to a single PAC school, Stanford in the last decade (approximately. And yes, Stanford – not Oregon).
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That P-12 NewCo plan is interesting.
Pac-12 Conference leadership pitched university presidents and chancellors a strategic plan aimed at bailing out the struggling conference and helping it keep pace with its Power Five Conference peers.
The “Pac-12 NewCo” plan was introduced to the conference presidents and chancellors at their mid-November meeting and was subsequently discussed in a conference call in December, per sources. Private investors would own 10 percent equity in the newly formed entity in exchange for a $500 million investment.
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A six-page document obtained by The Oregonian/OregonLive outlines the plan presented by conference commissioner Larry Scott to his bosses during the November meeting of the “Pac-12 CEO Group.”
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The conference’s broadcast rights, sponsorship rights, merchandising and all other commercial assets would be consolidated under the umbrella of “Pac-12 NewCo.” The conference would retain 90 percent of the equity.
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The strategic plan documents include a chart outlining the current and projected media-rights distributions. It reads, “based on the Pac-12’s current media rights deals and making conservative assumptions going forward, we estimate that a Capitalized NewCo could be valued at approximately $5 billion to $8.5 billion.”
The projections, however, include $36 million in annual revenue from DirecTV beginning in 2020 and a one-time payment in 2024 from ESPN in the amount of $347 million. Neither is certain. Also, the plan assumes FOX would renew its current broadcast contract with the Pac-12 in a 10-year deal worth more than $2 billion.
Selling a 10% stake in everything for $500M upfront? Which side is that a better deal for?
That DirecTV money is just a continuation of their current deal, so a reasonable assumption.
A footnote in the document about that big payment from ESPN says “Reflects value of ESPN’s proposed one-time payment of 50% of Network’s projected operating income from 2025-2034.” The numbers show the ESPN deal and the P12N revenues continuing as well, so I’m unclear what ESPN is paying for here.
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https://www.ducksports.com/sports/20181223/oregon-athletic-director-rob-mullens-is-still-confident-in-pac-12s-direction-under-embattled-commissioner-larry-scott
Oregon’s AD Rob Mullens (CFP chair) discusses P12 issues. The article starts by recounting the P12’s recent struggles in football (which we all know) and in hoops:
No. 18 Arizona State is the lone Pac-12 team in the Associated Press poll. The Sun Devils have also provided the only marquee nonconference win — Saturday’s upset of No. 1 Kansas.
In the NCAA’s “NET” computer rankings Sunday, only Arizona State (43) and Colorado (46) were inside the top 50. Oregon (93) and Oregon State (97) were barely inside the top 100, with Stanford (103), USC (131), Utah (137), Washington State (160) and California (174) all outside the top 100.
The Pac-12, which did not advance a team to the round of 32 in last year’s NCAA Tournament, could be a one-bid league this March, if Arizona State wins the conference tournament in Las Vegas.
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“I think the Pac-12 has a great league, and sometimes the focus only gets on football and men’s basketball results,” Mullens said during a recent interview with The Register-Guard. “Stanford just won a volleyball championship, which sometimes deserves some more amplification. But I understand that football and men’s basketball haven’t produced what we all want it to produce. Sometimes those things are cyclical.
“I think we have great institutions, we have outstanding coaches, and we all need to be working collectively to do everything we can to give our teams the best chance to succeed. The playoff is so important and gets so much attention; it’s not the only measure of success.”
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But the bottom line: Television contracts for football and men’s basketball pay the bills for athletic departments.
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott is facing mounting criticism as the conference continues to lag behind its peers in distributing revenue to member institutions.
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“There is this big resource gap between, particularly the SEC and the Big Ten, and that always creates some tension,” Mullens said. “We closed the gap significantly when the new TV deal was done, and sometimes that gets lost in this. We’ve got much, much greater exposure in football and men’s basketball than we had prior. And we closed the resource gap at the time the deal was done.
“Unfortunately, it’s grown. We took a road less traveled in that we decided we would retain 100 percent ownership of the networks and that we would do seven networks, we’d do 850 live events to elevate our Olympic sports.”
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Mullens admits the long-term strategy is a gamble.
“That’s a different model. I think it’s still up in the air as to whether that turns out to be the right move,” Mullens said. “If the media landscape shifts and it goes our way, we could be sitting in a great position. But that is to be determined.”
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“I know we’re challenging to follow because we’re unique as a conference,” Scott told a scrum of media at the Pac-12 championship game between Washington and Utah at Levi’s Stadium. “Certainly when it comes to financial results and headcount. We’re actually a media company, and the way that all gets reported is all together and that’s very hard to parse.”
Scott’s annual salary of $4.8 million is twice the salary of Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany ($2.4 million) and also dwarfs the salary of SEC commissioner Greg Sankey ($1.9 million).
Scott insists the Pac-12 is “very, very efficient” with its operational expenses. Mullens was asked if the conference needs to be even more financially efficient to keep up with the Joneses.
“That’s a tough question,” Mullens said. “Obviously I don’t know the ins and outs of how they spend every dollar. I certainly think that all of us need to make sure that we’re doing everything that we can to be as efficient as possible, so as much of that net revenue can get returned to the campuses that allows us to compete at the highest level. I think it’s in everybody’s best interest.”
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[attendance]
“We have to have two home games sold out to get to what they average on a game-by-game basis,” Mullens noted. “Our deal has always been innovation, brand, and student-athlete experience creates a bit of a competitive advantage for us.
“We have to do things a little differently. We have to be more efficient. We just can’t run into the marketplace and money-whip people. We have to find where our place fits and make it work.”
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Will the CFP start to suffer from the continuous string of blowouts they’ve had in the semifinals?
MOV in the 10 semis so far:
<17: 3 (6, 7, 11)
17-24: 3 (17, 18, 20)
25+: 4 (27, 31, 38, 39)
Games where 1 team scored <10 points: 5 including 2 shutouts (0, 0, 3, 6, 7)
What about midwestern failure?
After OSU's title in 2014, MSU got shutout, OSU got shutout and ND scored 3 points. OU is 0-3 although they have been competitive.
What about AL and Clemson fatigue?
They have 7 of the 10 semifinal wins (OSU, OR and UGA have the others) and 4 of the 5 titles. They've played each other 4 straight years in the CFP.
Well the semis didn't do well this year:
http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2018/12/college-football-playoff-ratings-overnights-2/
With neither game in doubt, overnight ratings for the College Football Playoff fell to New Year’s Eve levels.
Saturday’s Alabama-Oklahoma Orange Bowl delivered a 10.4 overnight rating on ESPN and ESPN2, down 17% from last season’s Sugar Bowl (Alabama-Clemson: 12.5) and down a tick from the 2016 Fiesta Bowl (Clemson-Ohio State: 10.5). Compared to the last Orange Bowl to host a semifinal, overnights increased 6% from 2015 (Clemson-Oklahoma: 9.8).
Earlier in the day, the Clemson-Notre Dame Cotton Bowl scored a 10.3 — down 30% from last season’s Rose Bowl (Georgia-Oklahoma: 14.8) and down 10% from the 2016 Peach Bowl (Alabama-Washington: 11.5). Compared to the last Cotton Bowl to host a playoff semifinal, overnights increased 3% from 2015 (Alabama-Michigan State: 10.0).
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The lopsided scores had a significant impact on the ratings, with overnights peaking during the first half of both games. Clemson-Notre Dame topped out at an 11.2 from 5:30-5:45 PM ET and Alabama-Oklahoma at an 11.8 from 8:30-8:45. …
Though low for the playoff, overnight ratings hit multi-year highs for the respective bowls. The Cotton Bowl’s 10.4 overnight ranks as the highest for that game since at least 1996. The Orange Bowl’s 10.3 is the highest for that game since 2006 (Penn State-Florida State: 12.5).
Notably, neither semifinal could match the Alabama-Georgia SEC Championship Game on CBS earlier this month (10.5).
Both 2015 and 2016 were NYE games while 2017’s were on NYD.
It’s a bad sign when a CCG outperforms the CFP.
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And how about some ND in a major bowl fatigue? They have lost 8 straight NY6 bowls since last winning one after the 1993 season under Lou Holtz. Only 1 of the 8 was by fewer than 14 points.
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Time for conf champ to be a CFP requirement?
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At the very least we need a more sophisticated system than the current one. Part of me says of course ND should’ve been in because they were undefeated, but ND has shown time and again that their record overestimates their actual level. In 2014 we saw an overrated undefeated FSU get blasted, too. The results have shown that W/L record isn’t the best way to pick teams but that is always what happens (among the P5 and ND, at least).
To be clear, there is no easy answer. I generally believe conference champs and undefeated teams should be in, but I also believe that ignoring OOC games is a bad plan. I want tough schedules to be rewarded, but also think an undefeated G5 team should have some chance to make it.
I’m not saying OSU would’ve beaten AL or Clemson, and I realize hindsight is 20/20. But plenty of people were worried about how ND and OU would perform based on the spreads. I think the issues just show how dumb the idea of 4 teams in a CFP is. A plus one system might have exposed ND and OU. Taking the top 2 would’ve had ND fans whining but AL/Clemson would be the top 2 teams. Having 8 teams would’ve included OSU, UW and either UGA or UCF. At least 2 of those teams probably would’ve outperformed ND.
I say the old bowl system is still preferable. You would’ve had the same 2 games, just in the Sugar and Orange Bowls plus nobody is left out. Then people could argue for years about AL vs Clemson.
Sugar – AL vs OU
Orange – Clemson vs ND
Rose – OSU vs UW
Fiesta – MI vs UF
Peach – UGA vs UCF
Cotton – LSU vs PSU
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I maintain if a Conference Championship is a requirement you would see better regular season games. Why schedule Sun Valley State when you could schedule a Alabama, Ohio State, Texas etc. I would think it would make a conference TV rights more valuable by offering better OOC match ups. Plus if you lost a game it would be so devastating.
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I’d prefer the old bowl tie-ins with a plus one. Retains importance of the bowls. People might complain that the match-ups wouldn’t be fair but I think it gives an additional data point to pick the top 2 teams similar to the BCS. Outside of the key tie-in bowls like the Rose, Sugar and Orange, you could have the Cotton, Peach and Fiesta being key match-up bowls. Would be much more difficult to end up with three undefeated teams. If we ever shrink the number of leagues to four I think this gives the most satisfying outcome.
Expanding the playoff only satisfies 8 schools. Making the bowls more relevant pleases many more fan bases.
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Totally agree. 1970 was probably the best year for the Bowl system. That year we got three National Champions: Nebraska, Ohio State and Texas. Perfect. Lots to talk about.
I watched a little bit of both semis. Wasn’t really interested. My wife watched ND/Clemson because she is a graduate of St. Mary’s across the street, and an alumna member of the ND concert band. She also watched the TCU whoever train wreck, because it was such a train wreck
I will watch OSU/WU today, and that’s it for football until next fall.
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Go look up Mike Golic’s rant on this point. ND has the second toughest strength of schedule of the final four. Alabama had the worst. ND’s ranking re offense/defense was also similar to the other semi-finalists. So what was the Committee supposed to do? All the stats supported ND in the semis.
Of course, if we still had the objective computer rankings instead of the fallible human rankings, the semi’s might have been different.
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I’m not sure exactly to which point of mine from that comment you’re replying. I didn’t say ND shouldn’t have gotten in, I just pointed out their dismal major bowl record over the past 25 years. In another comment I did say that the selection system needs to be improved, but again I didn’t say ND shouldn’t have gotten in.
I have no interest in what ND alum Golic has to say about anything ND-related. SOS can be calculated many ways. ND may have been 2nd in some SOS metrics, but that wasn’t universal. Sagarin had them 3rd well behind OU and then AL for example.
Record vs top 30 teams before the semis (from Sagarin):
AL 6-0
Clemson 3-0
OU 2-1
ND 3-0
ND’s schedule by Sagarin ranking:
6. MI
24. Stanford
28. Syracuse
32. NW
50. Pitt
51. USC
56. Vandy
60. WF
64. VT
69. FSU
108. Navy
133. Ball St
So ND may have played a bunch of above average teams, but they didn’t face many elite foes. They beat MI early (before Patterson settled in at QB) and that was it. I think that’s typical of a ND schedule – a lot of good games but few elite ones. That’s why them missing a CCG should be held against them. P5 members have to prove themselves against one last good team while ND sits.
ND had 5 one possession wins (8 pts or less) including against Ball St, so there were some warning signs. But as I said in an other comment, there is no easy answer. That’s one reason the current system is so dumb. You should set up the system so it has easy answers.
But my point in the comment you replied to was really wondering if TV viewers are already or will become tired of watching ND lose in major bowls. If their TV drawing power drops, that might be the thing that gets them into a conference eventually.
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https://247sports.com/Article/College-football-bowl-game-TV-ratings-127215989/
Clearly it wasn’t a generic case of bowl fatigue. The Rose and Sugar Bowls set non-semifinal records for ratings in the NY6 era and the NY6 minus the semis did the best ever.
The Rose Bowl Game delivered a 9.7 overnight (ESPN and ESPN2) up 3 percent from the 2017 Rose Bowl Game and up 23 percent from the 2016 edition. The overnight for the Buckeyes’ victory becomes the highest-rated non-Semifinal New Year’s Six game, overtaking the previously mentioned 2017 Rose Bowl.
The Rose Bowl peaked at 10.9 overnight late in the fourth quarter as Washington made a late comeback attempt.
The Sugar Bowl earned a 7.8 overnight (ESPN and ESPN2), up 28 percent from the 2017 Sugar Bowl and 47 percent increase from the 2016 game. Texas held on to beat UGA 28-21.
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This season’s New Year’s Six delivered an 8.0 overnight average, the highest-rated New Year’s Six for years the CFP Semifinals are not played on New Year’s Day. This season’s New Year’s Six non-Semifinal games earned a 7.0 overnight, the best ever in the five years of the system.
That puts the Rose just behind the two semifinals (9.7 vs 10.3 and 10.4).
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Bowl games are part of the fabric of college football. Eliminating bowls or reducing their significance will erode college football’s cultural importance in this country. Winning your league and the Rose Bowl was always the goal. Winning the NC would be the icing on the cake if the stars align.
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It’ll be fascinating to see media coverage of Clemson vs. Alabama from the Pacific Coast, particularly from the Bay Area where both will be disparaged as examples of the overemphasis on football that envelops the southeast (seven-figure salaries for coordinators?). Moreover, I expect ratings outside the SE to be mediocre.
Like it or not, college football is losing its national appeal and, competitively at least, is devolving into a regional sport.
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CFB always used to be a regional sport until the BCS (and its precursors) came along. That helped drive the nationalization and the increase in TV money because suddenly you had to care what other conferences were doing.
As for west coast coverage, I wonder how much there will even be. Beyond the mandatory pieces about when the game is and maybe some syndicated stories I’m not sure they’ll invest much effort.
I’m sure the title game will draw decent numbers because it’s football on TV, but they’ll need a good game to get great ratings.
I’d love for CFB to go back to being regional but it won’t happen. The genie won’t go back in the bottle. Some regions will always care more than others, but the CFP forces fans to pay some attention to other regions. And many neutral or casual fans don’t get AL and Clemson fatigue and don’t care about anything but winning and good games.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/01/03/tickets-for-cfp-title-game-available-for-cheap/38835409/
This is relevant. CFP title game tickets are cheap on the secondary market. The locals (Santa Clara) don’t care enough to pay big prices and fight rush hour traffic, especially after the P12 was eliminated early, and the AL and Clemson fans may be tired of paying for these trips. They aren’t used to cross-country trips for bowl games and it’s after the holidays so they can’t make a vacation out of it.
Tickets for the championship game are now available for just $135 on the secondary market , according to TicketIQ, less than half of what the price was before the semifinals and well below the face value price of $475.
StubHub had even cheaper tickets available Wednesday night, with seats priced at $115 — less than double the cost of a parking pass on the ticket resale site.
The CFP picked Santa Clara as its site for this year in part out of hope of broadening college football’s fan base. The Bay Area is much more of a pro sports region and it appears that not enough locals want to brave rush-hour traffic to attend the game Monday night. Games at California and Stanford struggle to draw big crowds and the annual Pac-12 championship game needs tarps to cover unused sections at Levi’s Stadium.
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With both schools still having tickets available and the secondary market filled with relatively cheap seats, there’s a distinct possibility of empty seats for college football’s biggest game.
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“You can overcome the lack of novelty if the location is good but even in a situation where there is novelty, location will trump,” Lawrence said. “The best example of that is Alabama-Clemson I which was in Glendale, Arizona. That was first time Clemson had been, there was a lot of novelty there. Alabama had been there before but still it was the first of the matchups and highly anticipated and that was a $200 get-in price.”
Location is a much bigger factor for the CFP title game than the basketball Final Four, where ticket prices are less susceptible to fluctuations based on the proximity of the teams because there are four schools involved and more casual fans plan trips for that event.
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More on the story.
“The fact is, it’s a long way from the two schools,” CFP executive director Bill Hancock said. “But there will be 40,000 of their fans here Monday night soaking it all up and loving every minute of it.”
The other 30,000 seats at Levi’s Stadium remain in question, but Hancock really might not be whistling past the graveyard.
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The current numbers for Monday night’s game are pretty much in line with two other games that have been played since 2015 when the CFP debuted. In fact, this game is outpacing the 2016 game between Alabama and Clemson (yes, them again) in Glendale, Arizona.
“The average prices are actually up 71 percent from 2016 when they met in Glendale,” said Adam Budelli, a StubHub spokesperson.
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Budelli said 9,000 tickets remained on StubHub as of Thursday afternoon. The least-expensive was $114 (in the nosebleed section) and $185 on the lower level.
Nearly 30 percent of tickets sold on StubHub were from buyers in California, Budelli said, with almost 15 percent from the Bay Area.
Given the nature of the market — the Bay Area is no hotbed for college sports — and the current weather forecast (rain and more rain), those numbers might not grow much.
Whatever the numbers, Hancock said the CFP will have met a major objective just by being here. This is the first game to be played in California.
“The West Coast is a place we need to be,” Hancock said. “It’s one of the many points on the compass where we wanted to be.
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While the location is terrible (a very poor choice for the championship game) my understanding is that the stadium itself is also disliked by the locals. Even 49er fans don’t bother showing up for some games on Sunday afternoons much less those with inconvienent starting times.
While distance from the respective fan bases and matchup fatigue are certainly factors in slow ticket sales any comparisson to the Final Four is a bit ridiculious. The NCAA tournament (especially the championship game) has had years to build itself into a national brand with broad cultural appeal; no college football playoff – reagardless of format – will ever match that.
Too bad as this is the first championship game featuring two unbeaten teams.
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I thought the stadium was good, it’s just the location people didn’t like. But that’s just a general impression I have, not anything based on data.
I think the FF comparison is valid in one sense – the FF is sold out well in advance due to neutral fans who will go no matter which teams make it. The CFP is much more reliant on fans of the two teams and locals. Part of that is the history of bowl games building a certain mindset into fans. But I do think the numbers show that the CFP hasn’t achieved the same level as the Super Bowl or Final Four in terms of neutral fans wanting to attend no matter what. With time the CFP may gain that status, but I think coming just after the bowl season really hurts them. The CFP may learn from this not to host the title game in the west except maybe in LA. I do think southern cities (Dallas, NO, Atlanta) wouldn’t have this issue even if the teams were USC and ND and they had been to the CFP a bunch lately. Likewise the midwest would probably attend though weather is a bigger factor.
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I have friends in the Bay area who’ve told me that some seating areas are unusually hot/uncomfortable on warm sunny days and that parking is poorly configured and difficult.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/01/03/dana-holgorsens-houston-contract-obliterates-group-five-pay-scale/2473825002/
Any thoughts on UH buying Holgorsen away from WV? That’s a huge jump in payroll for UH, putting them in the middle of what P5 schools pay for coaching staffs. No other G5 school is close. And Holgorsen isn’t getting a raise by moving. Why leave a P5 for a G5? Or is it really leaving the state of WV for getting back to TX and all their recruits?
The five-year deal’s basic value is a total of $20 million, and Holgorsen’s pay for the 2019 season is currently set to make him the highest-paid football coach at a Group of Five public school by $1.1 million.
If you are bored, read through the Dude of WV’s tweets about this (@ the DudeofWV).
12/29:
(Not relevant, just amusing to me)
The B12 has been very good to WVU, yet WVU is seen as an outlier in the conference… uppity behavior and disrespect towards Texas… impacted the way the OKST and OU games were called.
Begin relevant tweets:
A source tells me its highly unlikely, if not improbable, that Holgorsen has any interest in the UH job should it become available. There are only 65 P5 coaching jobs available & WVU has more resources, more money & more prestige.
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Trusted source from the Texas side: Holgorsen has been in contact with UH and is interested. WVU has not been notified because no official discussions have occurred. Contact made by Fertitta.
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I have reason to believe Holgorsen is leaving WVU. I wish Dana luck and success. It was time for WVU to move on and both recognized a change was in the best interests of both parties.
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Conflicting info. WVU denies they have been notified, as contractually required. Best to wait since rumors flying all about.
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The more I dig into the Holgorsen situation the more it seems WVU is happy to part ways with him at UH’s expense.
12/30:
#gocoogs So why is Dana being pushed out at WVU? Primarily its because he’s failed in several areas key to succeeding at WVU. His teams have underperformed their talent, not been prepared to play big games and he’s a horrible recruiter and fundraiser.
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Holgorsen wanted guaranteed money but WVU wanted a cost effective means to fire him. Thats when Tillman Fertitta stepped in and promised Dana guaranteed money. Dana agreed and Houston fired Applewhite.
…
So the way it played out Dana violated the terms of his contract with WVU and UH maybe guilty of tort inference. Its all good though.
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Here’s a behind the scenes account of Houston, Holgerson, and the Cougars’ own T. Boone Pickens – Tillman Fertitta.
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25682806/the-billionaire-bold-move-houston-dana-holgorsen-hire
UCF and Houston are setting themselves up as the first two draft picks in the next conference expansion draft.
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http://www.dailycamera.com/guest-opinions/ci_32355501/steve-bosley-intercolledgiate-athletics-benefits-cus-mission
Two members of the CU BoR complained when CU agreed to a contract with their new football HC. A former chair of the BoR wrote this piece in response. Below are some highlights:
When my former colleagues on the University of Colorado Board of Regents met recently to consider a contract for new Colorado Buffaloes head football coach Mel Tucker, the conversation veered off topic to a discussion, almost a lecture, by a couple of regents, questioning the value of intercollegiate athletics in general and the commitment to student-athlete safety (concussions, specifically).
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A university that aspires to excellence in academics should aspire to excellence in all it does, including athletics. Success in each of those endeavors is neither mutually exclusive nor a zero-sum game.
A regent implied CU should not fund intercollegiate athletics at all because the money would be better spent elsewhere. It’s important to understand that athletics at CU is largely a self-sustaining enterprise. Of its nearly $90 million annual budget (out of a campus budget of $1.8 billion), athletics generates some $80 million of that (the remainder the campus provides) through conference revenues, ticket sales, corporate partnerships, concessions and fundraising, among other sources.
Regarding fundraising, I know thousands of CU supporters in the Boulder community and have spoken with many donors whose initial interaction with the university, and often their first donation, was through athletics. Several of those people also fund academic endeavors or scholarships. Most have told me that were it not for the engagement though athletics they would not be engaged with the university at all.
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The football program generates the revenue that supports most of the other sports CU offers, so if it went away, athletics at CU would go with it, and opportunities for young women and men would go with them.
Athletics is also a window into the university and a touch point for many alumni. When football or basketball games are televised, networks provide commercials (public service announcements) that not only shine the spotlight on CU Boulder’s academic and research prowess but also provide hundreds of thousands of dollars in free advertising.
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The issue of concussions in football is serious, and it’s a fair discussion point. But one regent suggested CU is not doing enough about it. To the contrary, I have witnessed firsthand how the athletic department puts the safety of its student-athletes first and never compromises that. Additionally, the university is leading a Pac-12 study on concussions, engaging CU’s superb researchers in studying the issue. CU’s Denver campus is also leading an effort, funded by the NFL, to build a safer football helmet.
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https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/01/04/pac-12-conference-mulls-taking-private-equity-investors
Some athletic experts weigh on on the P12 proposal to sell a 10% stake in the conference’s assets.
Industry experts question whether the plan, which was first reported by The Oregonian, could succeed given the complexity in managing both a nonprofit (the conference) and a separate for-profit entity.
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“Pac-12 NewCo. sounds interesting, but I doubt the plan will work … or attract investors,” said John Vrooman, a sports economist and professor at Vanderbilt University.
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This deal is unsurprising, said Marcus Owens, a partner at the Washington law firm Loeb & Loeb. He previously worked for the Internal Revenue Service and investigated nonprofits and commercial revenue as the IRS’s Exempt Organizations Division director.
Universities for a while now have farmed out auxiliary services, such as dining or the bookstore, to outside companies in an attempt to maximize revenue, Owens said. This is the first occasion he knows of for an athletics conference possibly attempting it, he said.
Owens said the conferences have likely not tried it before because they enjoy tax exemption, so they have never needed to tap in to investors.
If the business activity of NewCo began to be blurred with the rest of the conference, such as if officials were assigned to the governing boards of both entities, it could create some problems, Owens said. He guessed that the leaders would try to ensure clear separation between the two groups.
“It’s an interesting expansion of an activity that has been trending for some time in higher education,” Owens said.
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In an interview with Sports Illustrated, Scott waved away issues of money.
“The focus on money is natural, but it’s only one piece of a broader equation that leads to competitive success,” Scott told the outlet. “Our conference has some significant non-financial advantages: the cities that we’re in, the universities, the academic excellence, the overall athletic excellence. California is in our backyard from a recruiting standpoint. We’re a conference that’s never been at the top of the standings in terms of revenue, but we’ve always been at the top of the standings in terms of winning. That’s what we measure. Having the most money, we’ve never had. We don’t need the most money to be competitive.”
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The game has passed him by. Saban needs to retire from college football.
Seriously, I’m so glad the Tide got rolled.
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Aren’t we all. May it happen in every game until the end of time.
It’s more proof how silly the current CFP system is though. The #1 team has never won the national title in the CFP while #4 has won it twice (#2 won the other 3). The lower-ranked team has won every title game. And yet we trust the committee to pick #4 versus #5 and to continue to rank the top 4.
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Don’t expect the title game to return to Santa Clara…
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/01/07/column-bay-area-no-place-for-college-football-championship/38855613/
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Every viable new NFL stadium (no outdoor stadiums in the north) will get at least one shot at a title game as they should. I’m not really surprised the Bay area didn’t really work out ticket wise.
The next five national championship games have already been handed out, all to cities that have much more of a college football heritage than the Bay Area. New Orleans in 2020. Miami in 2021. Indianapolis in 2022. Los Angeles in 2023. Houston in 2024.
“First 10 years, 10 cities,” Hancock said. “We like that.”
He said it will probably be another two or three years before the selection committee begins considering bids for 2025 and beyond. At the moment, there is no desire to take the game to an open-air venue in the northern U.S., which would eliminate the chance of following the NFL’s lead by, say, awarding a championship game to the New York City area.
That’s just fine.
They don’t care about college football in the Big Apple, either.
The next round of selections should bring some duplicate selections. Atlanta deserves a repeat after hosting Alabama’s thrilling overtime victory against Georgia a year ago. New Orleans, Dallas and Miami should be part of a regular rotation. To maintain geographic balance, Phoenix and Los Angeles are logical candidates. Maybe even consider an occasional foray to Big Ten country, as long as it’s domed stadiums in Indianapolis or Detroit or perhaps Minneapolis.
I think the midwest should be a more regular part of the rotation. I’d include the NY6 bowl sites (LA, Phoenix, Dallas, NO, Atlanta, Miami) plus STL, Indy, MSP and Detroit in a rotation. Maybe Orlando and Houston are also in that mix. I don’t expect this to happen but it seems more fair.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/columnist/george-schroeder/2019/01/05/pac-12-college-football-playoff-success-struggles/2493248002/
Another piece about CFB just meaning less out west.
What about the Pac-12? And the conversation suddenly morphed into a discussion of demographic trends: How despite a huge chunk of the nation’s population, participation in football is minimal. And why for whatever reason, there aren’t as many of those really big bodies like the ones that populate those dominant offensive and defensive lines of teams from the South.
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But it’s the view through a local prism that should be alarming to Pac-12 types.
“I just don’t think anybody is aware it exists,” Leaf said.
He meant the game, which has generated a distinct lack of buzz.
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“The reality is if this game was in Atlanta in Mercedes-Benz Stadium and it was Oregon vs. Oklahoma, you’d have a huge SEC contingent of fans,” said ESPN analyst Brock Huard, the former Washington quarterback. “And they’d be mad. You’d see their (SEC schools’) jerseys. You’d feel their passion. They’d be there and they’d want their teams to be there.”
But here? There’s crimson, and that weird combination of orange and purple, the Tide and Tigers fans mingling while dodging raindrops. But Stanford and California fans aren’t out in force, much less any of the other Pac-12 schools.
To Huard, it’s simply an extension of the vibe he got while calling Pac-12 games during the season.
“You go to Madison or Ann Arbor, or most of the SEC schools, or Austin or Norman, and it feels big,” he said. “It just doesn’t feel that way in this conference.”
Maybe that’s because it simply isn’t as big.
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“The scorecard we think matters,” Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott said last summer, “and that I know our university presidents and athletic directors care about most, is academic and athletic success across all sports. By this measure, we’re achieving unmatched success.”
…
Which brings us back to that SiriusXM roundtable. Mark Packer, the longtime host, interjected.
“I’ve got good news for Pac-12 football,” Packer said.
What’s that?
“You’re not Pac-12 basketball.”
And then they got back to talking Alabama and Clemson, which might be the unkindest cut of all.
“It’s not resonating right now,” said Huard of the Pac-12 – but it’s not just perception. He added:
“I think the perception and the reality are absolutely the same.”
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“I think the perception and the reality are absolutely the same.”
Marshall McLuhan nods his head.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2019/01/101435/looking-back-at-the-records-dwayne-haskins-broke-during-his-lone-season-as-ohio-states-starting-quarterback
A reminder of how great Dwayne Haskins’ season was and how unusual that is for an OSU QB.
Haskins obliterated 2 B10 records:
Single season passing yards:
Haskins – 4831
Painter (PU) – 3895
Germaine (OSU) – 3330
Single season passing TDs:
Haskins – 50
Brees (PU) – 39
Barrett (OSU) – 35
Single season B10 OPotW Awards:
Haskins – 6
Smith (OSU) – 5
He also set many OSU single-season and single-game records, most notably:
Comp. % – 0.700 (was 0.653)
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It is notable that Haskins is about as far from Meyer’s ideal quarterback (Tebow?) as you can get. Meyer’s last national championship was led by another quarterback who didn’t conform to Meyer’s prejudices, Cardale Jones.
How many national championships would Meyer and the Buckeyes have won if Meyer would have played NFL style quarterbacks? Would they have won last year if Haskins had started?
Historically, Ohio State has seldom recruited or started an NFL style quarterback. This seems to be built into the OSU DNA. Every once in awhile and Art Schlichter (how sad) or Jones shows up and one wonders what might have been.
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Meyer did pretty well at UF with Chris Leak (a passer) and Tebow. One thing that changed at OSU was he finally developed a RB-based running game (never had a 1000 yd rusher before he came to OSU). 2012 he went 12-0. 2013 the D lost the last 2 games. 2014 worked out (and might have with Barrett, too). 2015 was a bad gameplan against MSU and poor coaching in dealing with the QBs. 2016 was ST against PSU and no OL against Clemson. 2017 and 2018 were one bad defensive game from the CFP.
I think he was limited by the QBs on the OSU roster to some extent. Braxton Miller was such a great athlete that he had to start (especially since the rest of the team was weak) but he was a mediocre passer. Besides, Jones admittedly had a terrible attitude and work ethic his first few years. Barrett was everything a coach could want mentally but was limited in passing. Most of OSU’s losses under Meyer weren’t the fault of the QB anyway. The defense or gameplan usually failed them.
Could he have recruited better QBs? He often tried but they chose someone else late in the process so they had to take a plan B. Barrett was a last minute recruit for example. But having young starters also scares off others. Miller started as a freshman so people knew they’d be stuck as a backup. Barrett started as a freshman with the same result. The past few years Meyer did get more passing QBs (Haskins, Baldwin) but he also got an elite dual threat in Martell and almost got others like Fields.
Based on the success of QBs like Murray at OU and the guys at Clemson, I don’t think it’s the type of QB. The problem was Meyer’s way of using the QB.
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50 years earlier than his Nat’l Championship, Cardale Jones would have been a heavyweight boxer during that classes’ golden age, or perhaps an MLB power pitching prospect.
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https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2019/01/national-expert-chris-steele-5-star-physical-cb-and-florida-commit-considered-pac-12-officiating-when-weighing-decision.html
P12 officiating cost OR an elite recruit.
The Oregon Ducks entered Saturday as a program in the mix for two five-star commitments at the All-American Bowl in San Antonio, as cornerback Chris Steele and wide receiver Kyle Ford considered Mario Cristobal’s program a finalist.
As expected, however, Steele committed to Florida and Ford picked USC – choices that were considered all-but-locks heading into the event.
One of the reasons for that decision, at least for Steele, was noteworthy for fans of Oregon and Pac-12 Conference football.
According to NBC Sports sideline reporter and analyst Barton Simmons, who is 247Sports’ director of scouting, the officiating difference between the SEC and Pac-12 Conference played a part in Steele’s commitment.
“Chris Steele.. it’s interesting, this is a kid who was headed the Pac-12,” Simmons said. “His physical style of play, he felt like translated better to the SEC. And he felt like even the referees in the SEC would be a little bit more forgiving for his style of play. Pac-12 refs losing them one here.”
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So he wants to do late hits out of bounds? They only allow that in the SEC. Nick Chubb’s nasty knee injury at Tennessee that nearly ended his career was on a late hit out of bounds. Alabama did about 3 flagrant ones in the SEC ccg vs. UGA. Of course Pac 12 officials did call two phantom targeting calls on Texas to stretch out the last minute of a game that was over to about 30 minutes (although one was clearly a late hit, just not targeting). But in general, their problem is just general incompetence. Everybody but the SEC calls late hits.
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More charitably, perhaps he thinks he can get away with more DPI in the SEC.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/cardinals/2019/01/08/kliff-kingsbury-arizona-cardinals-head-coach/2515948002/
Someone please explain this to me. Why does anyone want a guy who failed in CFB as a HC to be an NFL HC?
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College: HC runs the team
Pro: Owner runs the team.
Kingsbury is an OC with an exaggerated title.
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Podcast of Brock Huard talking about the P12 with Jon Wilner. 34 minutes of honesty from Huard (rare TV guy with a P12, national CFB and NFL background).
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Vocally he’s a welcome change from the increasingly twang and drawl crowd that is covering the game on both the radio and TV ESPN outlets (Greg McElroy and Ben Hartsock are 2 of the biggest examples). Dont get me wrong, I like Rick Sutcliffe doing baseball color commentary, but his is a voice that probably works only for the Cardinals, Rangers, Braves or if there is a Nashville expansion team.
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2019/01/14/Media/Big-12.aspx
Intriguing. Fox gives up its every other year rights to the Big 12 conference championship game.
They pay $20 million. Last year was 6.2 rating and the 4th highest rated pre-bowl game. It drew better than anything but the playoffs Rose and Sugar Bowls.. Year before 3.8 was the rating.
In contract just expiring, the Big 10 got about $24 million for its ccg. Ratings the last 5 years have been 5.0, 7.3, 5.7, 5.3 and 3.5 for an average of 5.3.
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I’ll be curious to see who picks up the rights and how this impacts the P12. Will the P12 play at noon ET (9am local) on Saturdays? How much will the B12 get paid for these games? This sort of thing will stir up the realignment talk if it isn’t handled quickly and quietly.
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“Will the P12 play at noon ET (9am) local on Saturdays?”
Are you referring to every week in the regular season or for the P12 Conf. Championship Game?
And who would be the 3rd network. Perhaps NBC who could plug the P-12 CCG game in its broadcasts of ND @ USC in particular.
Also, 9am starts may necessitate a CDT outpost or 2 or at least a emphasis on scheduling games in Boulder and SLC.
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P12CG. Fox and Disney split covering it and I wondered if a change for the B12CG would impact the P12CG. The P12CG has been on Fridays but the P12 doesn’t like that. Perhaps someone would try moving the P12CG to noon on Saturday.
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Oops, USC AT ND.
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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/01/11/engler-says-new-healing-fund-may-not-aid-all-nassar-victims/2552449002/
John Engler may have finally said something so egregious that even MSU will have to get rid of him.
Days after the Michigan State University Board of Trustees approved a resolution calling for the revival of a fund to pay for counseling costs of those sexually abused by Larry Nassar, interim President John Engler suggested the fund may not be designed for all victims.
In an interview Friday with The Detroit News Editorial Board, Engler said the Healing Assistance Fund may be focused on the victims who are not part of the primary $500 million settlement.
The historic settlement was reached in May, requiring MSU to pay $425 million to 332 claimants and $75 million to future claimants, of whom 172 are under consideration.
“We are really thinking about that 172,” Engler said. “The people who got the $425 million are probably OK.”
…
“You’ve got people, they are hanging on and this has been … there are a lot of people who are touched by this, survivors who haven’t been in the spotlight,” Engler said. “In some ways they have been able to deal with this better than the ones who’ve been in the spotlight who are still enjoying that moment at times, you know, the awards and recognition. And it’s ending. It’s almost done.”
The BoT is supposed to meet tomorrow morning and discuss Engler’s future. His selection as interim president was a bad idea from the start.
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The simple truth is unacceptable.
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Which simple truth? That hundreds of molestation victims are probably OK because they got paid years later? Or that the victims enjoy the result of being molested? Or that it’s almost done?
MSU’s BoT members from both sides of the aisle seem to disagree with him on all counts.
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https://www.apnews.com/180364e9bbe1476eb8d5935b9d07eb41
Engler’s “resignation” is official.
Its new temporary leader, Satish Udpa, is a high-ranking but low-profile university administrator and former engineering dean who was promoted Thursday to take the helm until a permanent president is announced in June. Unlike John Engler, the hard-nosed former governor known for a confrontational style with political opponents, the 68-year-old Udpa is expected to bring a softer tone to what may be more of a caretaker role.
“We can’t continue to operate the way we have been for the past two years,” he said a day after the board of trustees forced Engler to step down over his comments that some victims of the imprisoned former campus sports doctor had been “enjoying” the publicity.
Udpa said he supports a campus culture where “everyone respects everybody else,” saying he wants to create an environment that makes victims “whole. That’s the single-most important priority for me.”
…
“It’s a big sigh of relief that I’ve been waiting to have for a very long time. I had tears come to my eyes,” said Kaylee Lorincz, who attended an emergency public meeting where the board voted to accelerate Engler’s departure — immediately instead of next week — and appoint Udpa , who will not seek the permanent job and is the third interim or acting president in under a year. The move drew loud applause from the crowd.
“I feel like he really delayed that healing process that I’ve been waiting to start after sentencing with Larry,” Lorincz said.
…
Matt Friedman, a communications strategist whose public relations firm has worked with Michigan universities, said Engler was “hired in crisis and he was essentially fired in the same crisis. That’s a real failure from a PR perspective. … He just couldn’t speak with a level of respect for the victims.” He classified his time as “two steps forward and three steps back.”
In handing leadership to a career academic, Friedman said, the board is rightly looking to make sure the situation “doesn’t get any worse.” But it must “nail” the choice of a permanent president, he said, with someone who will bring “real soul to the university and on this crisis in particular.”
…
Republican trustee Dan Kelly, who favored keeping Engler in his role previously, denied that partisanship was a factor in his ouster, however.
“I don’t think it’s a Democrat or Republican position to condemn comments that are not consistent with the values and what we hope to be the values of the university,” he said, saying he was “particularly disturbed” over Engler’s statements suggesting the Nassar saga is almost at an end.
“I don’t believe it is over. I don’t think it will ever be over,” Kelly said. “I think that this is a chapter in our history, and that we can’t ignore it or forget it. We have to learn from it.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25777317/rc-slocum-terry-mohajir-ray-odierno-join-college-football-playoff-selection-committee
The CFP committee is replacing 3 former coaches with one former coach, a G5 AD and a retired general. The committee will now have only 3 coaches on it to go with 6 ADs and 4 others. Is it better or worse for the rankings to drop former coaches?
Hall of Fame coach R.C. Slocum, the winningest head coach in Texas A&M history, will join the 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee this spring, along with Arkansas State athletic director Terry Mohajir and Ray Odierno, a former chief of staff of the U.S. Army.
The new members will each serve a three-year term and will replace outgoing committee members Jeff Bower, Herb Deromedi and Bobby Johnson, whose terms expire in February.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2019/01/15/texas-athletics-program-had-over-219-million-revenue-2018/2586818002/
UT raked in the cash again last year.
The Longhorns program had more than $219 million in annual operating revenue and total operating expenses of just over $206.5 million during its 2018 fiscal year, according to its new annual financial report to the NCAA.
Texas provided the document to USA TODAY Sports on Tuesday evening, in response to an open-records request.
This is the second consecutive year in which Texas has had more than $200 million in both operating revenues and expenses in the same year. Texas was at nearly $215 million in revenue and $207 million in expenses in 2017.
While Texas’ spending dropped by about $500,000 in 2018, the new expense total is still over $31 million more than any other Division I public school spent on its sports program during any of the 13 years for which USA TODAY Sports has compiled these data. Michigan reported spending $175.4 million in 2017. Texas fields 20 teams, Michigan 29.
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https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/college/asu/2019/01/14/asu-president-michael-crow-pac-12-positioned-greatness/2509467002/
ASU’s president Michael Crow (a Scott supporter) gave an interview that covered some P12 issues. He gave long answers to each question so I’m just excerpting a few key paragraphs. It’s worth reading the whole thing.
In a season of widespread discontent about the Pac-12 — be it leadership, financial health or on-field performance — Arizona State President Michael Crow preaches patience and perspective.
…
When asked if he remains solidly supportive of Scott, Crow simply says yes without further elaboration. But the 63-year-old is expansive in his other answers about the Pac-12 and ASU athletics in a recent interview with azcentral sports.
Criticism of Pac-12
“To some extent, I don’t really understand it. What I mean by that is when I came here in this job 16 years ago, the conference had very little income, the conference was not highly capable of doing all the things we’re now capable of doing.
…
“Of the 10 presidents that were in the room at the time, three of us are still there. All the others have traded out. Now what we have is people arriving on the scene now and they’re looking around and saying look at all the resources the SEC has and look at all the resources the Big Ten has, and we don’t have the same resources. We’re like no, but as soon as our contracts are renegotiated, we’ll have more and we’re extremely well positioned with our network to do all kinds of things.
…
“I don’t know who’s doing all the portrayals (of Pac-12). If they’re looking at income from the Big Ten and the SEC, yes our income is lower than theirs. If they’re looking at our particular football performance, mediocre compared to others but lots of new coaching appointments, lots of new opportunities.
… What somebody will be writing about three years from now or four years will be, ‘How did the Pac-12 get ahead of us.’ ”
Pac-12 income gap compared to other Power 5 conferences
“Conference income is a tiny part of everybody’s income. It’s just a piece of everybody’s income. You have your own advertising, conference income, donor income, athletic revenue themselves, other sources of income. From the conference perspective, we’re up five- or sixfold from where we were. We’re continuing to accelerate the network. We’re not producing out of our television contract quite what the others are producing the moment. Theirs came up and were renewed after ours was put in place. I don’t have any long-term concerns. There might be some issues on the short run.
“I also don’t think the best way to measure things is resources. The best way to measure things is graduation rates, championships, all kinds of things. …
Pac-12 considering taking on an equity partner
Pac-12 expenses from being headquartered in San Francisco
Pac-12 instant replay controversy
Pac-12 hiring a public relations firm to bolster its brand
…
“College athletics is not (only) about football and not about men’s basketball only and most coverage seems to be about those two sports. When you produce the number of championships, more than 500 now, that the Pac-12 has produced, when you produce the number of Olympic athletes we have and the outcomes we have and the social impact we have, how do we get that message across to the broader America who’s not just interested in football or men’s basketball.
…
Cyclical nature of college athletics
Potential expansion of College Football Playoff
“I’m kind of a weirdo in that I think the only people that should be playing in any kind of playoff, whatever the playoff is, are conference champions. I just think the conferences exist for a reason. If people want to criticize the Pac-12, let’s see how the Pac-12 champion does against the X champion. This year was the traditional Rose Bowl. The teams battled it out and were within one touchdown of each other. Fantastic game, fantastic comeback, fantastic everything. The Rose Bowl then in a sense could be a playoff game. If you’re the conference champion of a really tough conference, you have an 8-4 record and all the other teams are unbelievable, why shouldn’t you be in the championship. It’s not you ranked against everybody else at random. It should go to the conference champion of SEC playing the ACC or whatever other conference. I support that. If that means having a two-round system with three at-large conference champions from the non Power 5s with the best records I’m OK with that also.
“I’d love to see the Pac-12 Conference champion always play the conference champion of another conference, and we’ll see who produces better football.”
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A couple of notes:
* He seems to put a very optimistic spin on the P12’s financial position. Yes the P12 is making a lot more than before, but so is everyone else (time and inflation will do that for you no matter what). He seems to be giving Scott credit for the fact that TV rights have been booming. I think it’s highly optimistic to say that the P12 will be getting more than others after they sign new deals in a few years. The B10 is way ahead of them already and signs a new deal before the P12 does. The SEC is also way ahead and will eventually replace their small CBS deal. Without selling part/all of the P12N I don’t see how the P12 jumps to #1.
* What exactly is the P12 positioned to do with their network? Do they have some breakthrough idea that nobody else in TV has had? Nobody watches it right now. Having 100% ownership gives them the right to sell it, that’s about it.
* Conference income is a tiny piece compared to the university’s overall budget but it’s a large chunk of the AD’s budget. Perhaps it’s easy for ASU’s president to say that since ASU gives a $20M+ subsidy to the AD from student fees. Maybe part of the problem is that the P12’s revenue is so low that the P12 money is a small piece of their budgets. At OSU the new B10 money (~$50M) will be about 25% of the total revenue. It could approach 50% at Purdue.
* He may not think resources is the right way to compare conferences but his ADs and coaches sure do. They want a level financial playing field and so do the P12’s fans.
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https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/sec-cbs-contract-value/
Some people scoffed when I suggested the SEC’s new deal to replace the old CBS deal may be worth $300M per year. This article is by a sports management professor (from Arkansas) and the title is “Why The SEC On CBS Deal Is Worth (at least) $300M Annually.”
So, how did I get to $275 million for the SEC? Here is my math…
If we assume the current market rate for Tier I college football rights is around $4.9 million per ratings point (what Fox is paying for the past two seasons of Big Ten rights), and we assume the SEC will average a 3.1 rating (what CBS pulled on average the past two seasons) over 17 games, then…
$4.9 million per rating point x 3.1 rating per game x 17 games = $258,230,000
Since 2017 SEC ratings were the lowest in the last five years, if we base our math on 2018 ratings alone, the price rises to $275,723,000.
…
Given that importance to CBS, and the ability of the SEC to deliver consistent viewership, could the SEC also charge a 10% premium and increase its ask to $300 million per year? And, in the grand competition of college athletics, to think the SEC would only demand a 10% increase for what’s on par with the Big Ten is, well, unlikely. So, $300M annually. At least.
I wouldn’t call it a premium so much as a continued increase in the value of live sports. The B10’s current deal will be old news by 2024 when the new SEC deal would start.
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Brian – At the end the article you linked, there’s a link to a recent column by Richard Deitsch in The Athletic. Deitsch writes, “McManus said there is not an exclusive negotiating window with the SEC but said he would be surprised if both parties waited for the contract to expire to talk about a new deal.” Sounds like a renegotiation may be in the works.
By the way, if you haven’t already subscribed to The Athletic, you should. I did so mainly for Baseball (Peter Gammons, Ken Rosenthal & Jason Stark) and local coverage of my beloved but downtrodden Orioles, but the CFB coverage is excellent as well, with Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman, among others. They are always running subscription specials. Note: this is NOT a paid advertisement, just a satisfied subscriber.
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$300 million is $20 million a game. If Fox doesn’t think the Big 12 with two year average ratings of 5.0 is worth $20 million for a ccg with a nearly exclusive slot, why would the SEC with a 3.1 and non-exclusive slot be worth $20 million?
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Because the SEC has a better time slot?
Because the SEC games have a higher floor in ratings?
Because TV rights continue to escalate and this deal would be years away?
Because more people care about SEC games?
Because the network wants to be tied to the SEC?
Read the article for his opinions on why, but the math is fairly simple and quoted above. He took what Fox is paying the B10 now and applied that to the SEC. Maybe your real question is why the B12CG is worth so much less to Fox than B10 and potentially SEC games.
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I think his math is flawed. Doesn’t Fox have more than 14 Big 10 games?
And the SEC game of the week doesn’t have a higher floor. I don’t think he’s assuming the inflation. More people don’t care about SEC games than a CCG.
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2018 numbers – Fox had 14 games and FS1 had 13.
He seems to ignore the FS1 games, but he did only use 80% of the money since Fox also got some MBB games. But based on how small the old CBS deal was for MBB, I think we can bundle FS1 football and MBB into one group. How to split the money between Fox football and the rest is debatable, but 80% is plausible I think.
The SEC GotW doesn’t have a higher floor than the B10 GotW? Based on 2018 it’s about the same (~2M viewers) but the SEC had fewer games near that value while the B10 had several. The SEC did have a higher average.
He did not consider inflation or future rights growth, but both of those should be considered when putting out a number. I certainly considered them when I gave my estimate.
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Jon Wilner with another good podcast. This time he has AJ Maestas, a media expert, who says the P12 may have gotten it right (or may not have). He is more realistic about the P12’s financial future than President Crow, though.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2019/01/19/uconn-athletic-director-wont-rule-out-cutting-some-sports/38924331/
UConn may be reaching a breaking point with their athletics budget. Cut sports? Leave the AAC? Drop football down? Rutgers got away with massive deficit spending since they got a golden ticket. How long can UConn keep chasing the dream of P5 membership?
UConn Athletic Director David Benedict says the school has not ruled out eliminating some sports to close a more than $40 million gap in its athletic budget.
Benedict, speaking prior to Saturday’s men’s basketball game with Tulane, says there remains a strong belief that UConn has become a nationally renowned university in part because of its success in athletics.
But he says the athletic division must examine how it is structured. He says UConn will look at all opportunities to increase revenue and cut expenses before considering cutting a sport.
He says a new media rights contract for the American Athletic Conference could help the school “make a dent” in the budget gap.
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The Hartford Currant ran a similar story. This is precisely what so man Rutgers “fans” do not seem to understand. There are still constant comments (from a minority for sure) stating that RU should never have accepted an invitation to the B1G. Those comments ignore the academic prestige and advantages and also do not seem to comprehend that Rutgers would be UConn, without the womens’ basketball, if they had not joined a P5.
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Shouldn’t the higher-profile members of the American wait a few years to see how the next round of realignment shakes down before signing any GOR? It would especially behoove them to see which and how many Big 12 members move elsewhere since even with weaker members, the Big 12 — the most vulnerable P5 league — would have more value than the American.
At this moment, here’s how I’d rank the AAC’s 11 all-sports members as potential Big 12 replacements:
Central Florida
South Florida
Houston
Cincinnati
Memphis
Connecticut
Temple
Tulane
Southern Methodist
Tulsa
East Carolina
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Yes they should. That’s one of the AAC’s conundrums. To get a bigger TV deal they need a GOR, but to get a GOR they need a bigger TV deal. My guess is that they will ask TV partners for offers with and without a GOR and try to make the GOR part of the TV deal like the ACC did a few years ago. The AAC has to hope the deal with a GOR is good enough to get the most valuable members to sign the GOR.
My guess is that they will be some ugly negotiations internally and could lead to a breakup of the AAC unless everyone signs pretty easily. The smaller schools may look to punish those who want their freedom to leave. If any schools do make the jump to the P5, the ones who wanted a chance but weren’t taken may pay the price as they may not have the numbers to prevent intraconference retaliation.
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Its generally accepted the final 3 in the Big 12 expansion analysis were BYU, Houston and Cincinnati.
UCF, USF, UConn, Tulane and SMU were in the final 11. The rest were not. Air Force, Colorado St. and Rice were also in the final 11.
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Your lists make sense.
As outsiders to both the B12 and the industry, it’s hard to know how to value UCF and USF. If you asked for a generic list of candidates, they’d be very high. But for a TX-centric conference like the B12 they may not be so high. Getting the #4 and 5 schools in a state and competing with 2 other P5s has definite downsides. But those programs have more upside than most, too.
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One more note based on the numbers from reddit about recruiting by state (no link this time).
B12 recruiting (2014-2018) by state:
TX – 535
CA – 74
OK – 72
FL – 69
KS – 62
LA – 62
GA – 42
OH – 32
MO – 27
FL is already a pipeline state for the B12. Adding UCF and USF could really open it up. Granted, TX is supplying the vast majority no matter what but access to another top state never hurts.
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Reply to your BigXII recruiting-by-state breakdown – I wonder if the KS number includes its numerous juco products or is the breakdown based solely on the recruit’s high school/true hometown. It reminds me of when TV/athletic departments attribute a product of a Catholic high school to that school’s location instead of the true home residence of the player. An example would be Montini High School in Lombard, IL – the player may be listed as being from Lombard IL but may actually be from Chicago’s west side, Oak Park, Bellwood, Addison, Bolingbrook, Naperville etc.
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He used what 247.com lists, and I’m pretty sure that’s hometown even for JUCOs. Probably players from KC mostly. 49 of the 62 went to KU and KSU.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/25080028/otl-analysis-tracking-title-ix-complaints-athletes-power-5-schools
ESPN compiled the total number Title IX complaints at all public P5 schools from 2012-2017 and broke them down by athletes versus non-athletes. They also gave a survey to Title IX offices and got some feedback.
Different schools have different reporting methods so you can’t compare one school to another. You can look at the percentage of complaints against athletes versus the percentage of students who are athletes at the same school. Overall athletes were about 3 times more likely to be accused.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/01/21/rutgers-names-marylands-andy-buh-its-defensive-coordinator/38933357/
B10 coaching has had a strange off-season. OSU took 2 assistants from UM (perfectly understandable desire to go somewhere better) and now RU took UMD’s DC.
Why make a lateral move without a promotion (DC to DC) to RU of all places?
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https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2019/01/canzano-vote-of-confidence-or-a-mounting-movement-in-pac-12-world.html
John Canzano of The Oregonian responds to ASU president Michael Crow’s vote of confidence in Larry Scott.
Crow is one of Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott’s closest supporters. The other is Oregon State president Edward Ray, who is also on record saying he’s also comfortable with the direction of things. UCLA’s Gene Block is also, mostly supportive of Scott. Those three are holdovers, the only sitting presidents who happened to be around when Scott was hired.
Anyone else find it interesting that nine other conference leaders aren’t as public in support of Scott?
…
The Pac-12 has been a financial disappointment. It’s failed to adequately support major revenue-producing programs. College football and men’s basketball, which represent 97 percent of the revenue generated in major college athletics departments nationally, have been a tremendous disappointment.
But the Pac-12 is crushing it in the sports responsible for the other three percent.
…
He preached patience. He emphasized strategy. And he pointed out, “Conference income is a tiny part of everybody’s income. It’s just a piece of everybody’s income. You have your own advertising, conference income, donor income, athletic revenue themselves, other sources of income.”
Except, Crow is flat wrong — conference income isn’t a “tiny” part of everybody’s income. It’s a huge revenue stream at every member institution. In fact, the conference distribution accounted for 39.8 percent of Oregon State’s total athletic department revenue of in the fiscal year ending in 2017.
…
No matter how well the Beavers perform in women’s basketball and baseball, the bottom line in Corvallis is still ugly. It’s why Oregon State was subsidized in 2017 by student fees ($2.7 million) and was handed another $4 million in support from the general fund to bail it out.
Even with that, it still fell short of break even. OSU’s athletic department is carrying $40 million in accrued debt. That figure will top $50 million by the end of 2019. And so if you’re on the Board of Trustees at Oregon State, you’d have to wonder what the Beavers’ athletic department might do if the Pac-12 had a media-rights deal on par with its Power Five Conference peers.
Spoiler: OSU would be profitable.
…
Scott was the right hire in 2009. The conference needed vision and someone to navigate expansion and the first lucrative television-rights deal. But the leadership need has shifted in the decade since that hire. The Pac-12 has a much different kind of need now. And I suspect a growing majority of Pac-12 leaders know it.
Those 12 votes are the only ones that count.
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Maybe they will hire Clownzano to run the conference AND the Pac-12 media enterprises, since he has such a deep knowledge of click bait talking points in the back half of the current media contract.
I believe Crow’s comment referred to the % of the whole university, as it should. The “front porch” of a major university is the athletic department. He implies sports value to a school is constrained to its direct revenue contribution. In his example I’d bet the baseball success at OrSU has a value to the university far beyond its take at the “gate”. (It provoked U of Nike to to take on the expense of restoreing and maintaining the sport.)
Pac fans (and media) need to realize they aren’t the B1G or SEC. and the ACC isn’t the B12. Conference’s expectations are their own, not an external attention dependent media’s employee.
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ccrider55,
“Maybe they will hire Clownzano to run the conference AND the Pac-12 media enterprises, since he has such a deep knowledge of click bait talking points in the back half of the current media contract.”
I think I am between your position and his.
First, it is Canzano’s job to investigate, critique and write opinion pieces. That doesn’t mean he thinks he could do Scott’s job better. It does mean he thinks the job can be done better than Scott is doing it now.
“I believe Crow’s comment referred to the % of the whole university, as it should.”
Normally I would give a president that benefit of the doubt but the context makes it pretty clear that Crow was talking about the athletic budget. Here’s the whole paragraph for context (linked earlier):
“Conference income is a tiny part of everybody’s income. It’s just a piece of everybody’s income. You have your own advertising, conference income, donor income, athletic revenue themselves, other sources of income. From the conference perspective, we’re up five- or sixfold from where we were. We’re continuing to accelerate the network. We’re not producing out of our television contract quite what the others are producing the moment. Theirs came up and were renewed after ours was put in place. I don’t have any long-term concerns. There might be some issues on the short run.”
He is clearly talking about the AD’s budget only. Does that change your view on his statement at all?
“The “front porch” of a major university is the athletic department. He implies sports value to a school is constrained to its direct revenue contribution. In his example I’d bet the baseball success at OrSU has a value to the university far beyond its take at the “gate”.”
I agree about the PR/free advertising aspect of the AD. I think Canzano does as well which is why he is complaining about revenue. The P12 hasn’t been good in CFB or MBB lately and that hurts all the schools. Canzano thinks a lack of resources is part of the problem and that some of Scott’s decisions are keeping those resources smaller than they should be. Not only do CFB and MBB generate almost all the revenue, they also get a huge percentage of the TV time and provide most of the free advertising. OrSU baseball has virtually no presence outside of the state. So it may have driven UO to do something, but it isn’t helping the school much on the national scale.
One can debate how important local, state, regional and national attention is and which area matters how much, but CFB and MBB clearly have more impact on the national level than other sports.
“Pac fans (and media) need to realize they aren’t the B1G or SEC. and the ACC isn’t the B12.”
I agree and I don’t think Canzano expects B10/SEC money out west either. I think he is more upset with Scott “wasting” money (paid too much, expensive HQ site, etc) than anything. I know the DirecTV issue bothers P12 fans but there really isn’t a solution unless fans demand P12N. Most favored nation clauses are normal in cable deals. Scott isn’t at fault for fan apathy.
“Conference’s expectations are their own, not an external attention dependent media’s employee.”
They are, but the P12 seems to be taking a very different stance than even the B10 (also focused on academic and broad athletic programs). The P12 is right to be proud of their Olympic sports, but some of their decisions in how to use P12N baffle me.
The question of ownership is debatable, but I tend to think the P12 missed out by not having a partner to force carriage at the beginning. The P12 bit off a lot all at once and I think they made some mistakes that a partner might have protected them from.
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I may have been a bit strong in my post. I have, however, had the misfortune to have read enough of Canzano that I generally won’t read his stuff unless it becomes a “requirement” because he has become the source/object of a discussion. I prefer hearing from actual experts in a field over speculators/reporters trying to drive their opinion. I think I posted this piece a while ago:
https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/pac-12-media-strategy/
“AJ Maestas – Founder & CEO, Navigate Research: Although it may have made distribution more difficult, it perfectly fits their mission and charter. No one can predict the future, but no sports property I know of regrets their decision to take equity in their own network.“
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When it comes to the P12N ownership decision, we’ll never know if the P12 made a good decision or not. But I don’t believe that the P12’s mission is so different from that of other conferences as to justify the decision all by itself. The P12 could’ve taken the B10 approach of an equal partnership which would have left them with plenty of control while also getting help to drive carriage. It’s not like the P12 hasn’t sold out in their tier 1 deal (F games, late starts, etc), so to talk like they are above such things and that’s why they needed 100% control is disingenuous.
And while the P12 presidents may view the network as way to publicize the Olympic sports, that doesn’t make the fans, coaches and ADs wrong to say they are wasting a potential revenue stream. The presidents have to decide on the priorities for their schools but we also know they are often underinformed about such a vital avenue to reach out to their alumni and fans. Crow’s comment demonstrates that very clearly. $10M may be negligible to the university overall but it makes a big difference to the AD. Multiple Olympic sports can be run with that much money. And happy fans make for bigger donors, so pleasing the fans does matter. Winning in revenue sports also drives applications up, improving the school and its finances.
Put aside the issue of the P12N ownership. That wasn’t even the main point of this article. There are other decisions Scott and the presidents have made that can be evaluated (and potentially criticized) separately.
And yes, Canzano has staked out a position on P12 finances. Regularly covering OrSU probably has a lot to do with it. UO is fine with all their Nike money but OrSU, much like WSU, is struggling financially. Every decision that limits P12 revenue disproportionately hurts the less successful ADs like OrSU.
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Brian:
And yet it’s the OrSU pres that is one of Scott’s big supporters.
Perhaps he views the value of athletics to the university as one that should be supported financially to an extent by the U at large? Perhaps athletics are significant part of the educational experience, as an athlete or as a general student? It’s not like they (or the large majority of schools) will ever have the resources of tOSU, UM, UT, etc.
Yes, sometimes presidents may be not on top of every nuance. However, their nature is often to think big picture -long term. This is probably more important to the PAC with their often recited built in disadvantes. Maestas seems to be looking at the longer view when he says:
“If the Pac-12 had followed the Big Ten/SEC model, it would have committed itself to a disadvantaged position in perpetuity.”
“…leadership took a bold and calculated gamble that owning its network outright would pay off in the long term, meaning over the next few decades, not just a few years.”
“Next few decades”. The next media contract will be an indicator, not definitive apparently in his estimation. The one way we will for sure NOT know if the PAC’s choice was wrong would be to abandon the strategy before it has run through more than a couple cycles during a rapidly changing media landscape. They have more flexibility to respond to future constraints they, and others may encounter.
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ccrider55,
“And yet it’s the OrSU pres that is one of Scott’s big supporters.
Perhaps he views the value of athletics to the university as one that should be supported financially to an extent by the U at large? Perhaps athletics are significant part of the educational experience, as an athlete or as a general student? It’s not like they (or the large majority of schools) will ever have the resources of tOSU, UM, UT, etc.”
He is one of the three current P12 presidents who hired Scott, so his ego may be involved. Also he may be blinded by the big jump in money the P12 has made from when he first started. But Scott isn’t responsible for the CFP money nor most of the jump in TV rights. The P12 was on an antiquated deal under Hansen and any new commissioner would have gotten the P12 a big jump in money in that media environment. Even Canzano says Scott did well early on. The question he brings up is about Scott’s current performance.
“Yes, sometimes presidents may be not on top of every nuance. However, their nature is often to think big picture -long term.”
Thinking the conference payout is a tiny part of the AD budget isn’t just missing a nuance. It is a fundamental misunderstanding of how athletics operates. And most presidents have next to no experience with athletics since they all come up as academics. Note that the ADs, who generally have lots of athletic experience, keep saying how big the problem is.
Thinking long term is great and more businesses should do it. But saying you’re thinking long term doesn’t make it true. 100% ownership of the P12N has an opportunity cost that they are currently paying. The question is if they will ever find some way to monetize that control that others won’t be able to match. Owning the network just to own it isn’t wise. What is their big plan to use 100% ownership? What will they do that others can’t? Or are they just holding it as an investment and hoping it is more like Apple stock than Oldsmobile?
“”This is probably more important to the PAC with their often recited built in disadvantes. Maestas seems to be looking at the longer view when he says:
“If the Pac-12 had followed the Big Ten/SEC model, it would have committed itself to a disadvantaged position in perpetuity.”
“…leadership took a bold and calculated gamble that owning its network outright would pay off in the long term, meaning over the next few decades, not just a few years.””
There is no B10/SEC model unless he simply means making tons of money. The B10 owns half of BTN and has control of it. The SEC gets paid while Disney owns SECN. Those are very different models. I can understand the P12 wanting control but that doesn’t explain why the B10 model would not work for them.
““Next few decades”.”
And again nobody explains how it will pay off for them, just speculate that it might. Will the P12N magically get more attractive after years/decades of terrible ratings and P12 fans getting used to not watching it? In a few decades the BTN deal will end, the SECN deal will end and the ACCN deal will end. If none of them try to retain 100% ownership going forward, what does that say about the P12’s decision? If all of them do, it would certainly validate the P12’s choice.
“The next media contract will be an indicator, not definitive apparently in his estimation.”
I agree, unless they sell a portion of it. Maybe in 20 years you can decide whether it was a good idea or not as the B10 and SEC decide how to move forward. But we’ll never know how the path not taken would have turned out, so you can’t compare it. How much would the P12 be getting for the P12N now if they had the B10 model and partnered with Fox? How many homes would it be in? With no way to know that, we can never really judge the decision completely.
“The one way we will for sure NOT know if the PAC’s choice was wrong would be to abandon the strategy before it has run through more than a couple cycles during a rapidly changing media landscape.”
When isn’t the media landscape rapidly changing? Realizing that you made a mistake and fixing it is a mature decision. Riding a bad investment decision until the bitter end is how people go broke. We would definitely know the choice was wrong if even the P12 presidents acknowledged it enough to change course in 2024. Realize that we are coming up on 7 full years of the P12N. 2 cycles will be 25 years or more most likely. That seems like a lot of time to evaluate the decision.
And realize there are multiple components of the P12N to evaluate:
1. 100% ownership by P12
2. 6 regional networks
3. 850 live events per year
4. Amount of time given to various sports and other programming
“They have more flexibility to respond to future constraints they, and others may encounter.”
Only until the current deals end. So every year that passes with the P12 making a lot less money and getting finding any unique ways to significantly benefit from the P12N, that advantage shrinks.
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“There is no B10/SEC model unless he simply means making tons of money.”
Agree on theirs being far from the same. SECN is basically a SEC dedicated espn channel. My biggest qualm with BTN is along the line of Steve Jobs experience. Having been ousted from Apple and was forming new high tech companies, an interviewer asked how his experience building Apple had informed these efforts. He responded – always control 51%.
“The B10 owns half of BTN and has control of it.”
B1G controls 49% since Fox exercised it’s option. I’m not sure what control Fox and B1G contract limitations entail, but I’d bet Fox can make demands that a minority owner couldn’t.
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Yes, the 51/49 split thing has always worried me as well. Of course we’ll never really know what, if anything, changed when Fox acquired that other 2%. I assume the B10 retained content control in that they could veto a proposed show. I don’t know what decisions that 2% impacted. Perhaps who selects the games for BTN has changed. I’d rather have an independent company make all those sorts of decisions anyway.
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http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/
And just to give some context, here are the 2016-17 revenue numbers from USA Today.
Private schools don’t have to release the data so USC isn’t listed.
Total revenue:
1. Texas – $215M
2. TAMU – $212M
3. OSU – $185M
…
12. Oregon – $145M
Top 25 members by conference:
SEC (11) – 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 16, 17, 19, 24 (also 31, 32)
B10 (8) – 3, 4, 14, 15, 18, 21, 23, 25 (also 28, 33, 34, 37, 46)
ACC (2) – 13, 22
B12 (2) – 1, 7
P12 (2) – 12, 20
ACC – 13, 22, 26, 35, 39, 44, 47, 51 + 6 private schools
B12 – 1, 7, 27, 36, 40, 43, 45, 50 + 2 private schools
P12 – 12, 20, 29, 30, 38, 41, 42, 48, 52, 53 + 2 private schools
The entire SEC and all but PU in the B10 (before the new TV deal) made more than the median P12 school, so let’s take the B10 and SEC out of the equation for a more fair comparison. Based on this, the other 3 are pretty similar except for the B12 having 2 top 10 schools. USC might change our view of the P12, but I doubt the other privates except ND are major factors.
I suppose this is good news for the P12, or at least not bad news. But it does show that the P12 is not on a level playing field against the B10 and SEC. And not just slightly behind, either. The median B10 school would be #3 in the P12. The median SEC school would be #1 in the P12. The top schools are tens of millions ahead of the P12. There isn’t much Scott or anyone else can do about that, but there are things than can help.
Rankings don’t tell the entire picture since revenue is far from linear.
R1 – R3 = $30M; 215 – 185
R3 – R7 = $30M; 185 – 155
R7 – R21 = $29M; 155 – 126
R21 – R36 = $31M; 126 – 95
R37 – R53 = $31M; 95 – 64
That’s the spread for the entire P5. The top 31 schools all topped $100M while 2 topped $200M. 6 of 10 P12 publics made less than $100M and 5 of 8 from the ACC and B12. Just like in society, the gap between the very top and the masses is growing quickly.
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https://theathletic.com/779008/2019/01/22/kenpom-believe-net-is-influencing-lopsided-games-think-again/
KenPom evaluates the NCAA’s new NET rating and says people aren’t successfully gaming the system by running up the score late.
“Ever since the guts of the NET ratings were announced, the specter of teams running up the score in garbage time has loomed over lopsided games this season. Given that one of the ingredients in the formula, efficiency margin, is essentially an uncapped version of scoring margin, it doesn’t hurt to win games by as many points as possible if one’s goal is to maximize its ranking in the NET.
Whenever a team wins by a lopsided margin or scores a few garbage-time buckets near the end of the game, there is a suspicion that coaches are playing the end-game differently than they did in years past. Some coaches have hinted at this development. And late last week, Buffalo coach Nate Oats admitted to Rachel Lenzi of The Buffalo News that he wants his team to expand late leads, even when the outcome is no longer in doubt.
While this sounds like a surefire way to game the NET, it hasn’t worked out in practice, at least for Buffalo. …”
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2019/01/23/ohio-state-texas-am-athletics-top-200-million-revenue-2018/2659056002/
Not long ago a posted a link to an article about UT rolling in cash for 2017-18. USA Today is slowly releasing numbers for more schools.
The Ohio State and Texas A&M athletics programs each had more than $200 million in operating revenue during their 2018 fiscal years, their new financial reports to the NCAA show.
Ohio State also crossed $200 million in operating expenses, joining Texas in exceeding that figure on both sides of its ledger for 2018 and continuing what have been huge increases in its budget. This is the first time three public schools have exceeded $200 million in operating revenue in a single year.
Texas A&M had its second consecutive year with more $200 million in operating revenue and its fourth in a row with more than $190 million. Its revenue figures over this time have been helped by massive donation amounts, which have been used to pay for hundreds of millions in stadium projects for football, softball and track and field. That spending is not included in operating expenses.
Two notes:
1. TAMU’s revenue is a little inflated by donations for construction. That tends to be cyclical.
2. OSU spend that money on 37 varsity teams. UT has 18 and TAMU has 20.*
* – numbers from Wikipedia, so blame them if it’s wrong.
This does show a big jump for OSU on both numbers. USA Today’s financial database let’s you look by year.
OSU’s total revenue and rights/licensing revenue by year:
2018 – > $200M, ???
2017 – $185M, $67M
2016 – $171M, $60M
2015 – $167M, $57M
2014 – $145M, $50M
2013 – $140M, $46M
2012 – $142M, $41M
2011 – $132M, $44M
44/132 = 0.33
67/185 = 0.36
The ratio of rights to total revenue has been similar, and certainly contributions have also increased, but you have to think the TV money is a sizable factor here. I wonder how much of the revenue jump this time is the new TV deal.
MI was almost exactly equal in revenue and expenses to OSU in 2017 so they must have come close to $200M as well.
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I wanted to include some quotes but my comment was getting too long.
Ohio State had $205.6 million in operating revenue and $203.8 million in operating expenses, according to a document it provided to USA TODAY Sports on Wednesday in response to an open-records request.
The income figure represents a more than $20 million increase from 2017 and the spending total represents a more than $30 million increase.
This is the second time in four years that Ohio State has had a single-year revenue increase of more than $20 million. In 2016, it jumped from just over $145 million to just over $167 million.
Not adjusting for inflation, Ohio State’s operating expenses have risen by nearly $50 million since 2015, for which it reported nearly $154 million. (Ohio State reported $114 million in operating expenses for 2014, but then changed the manner in which it was reporting debt service on facilities to make it conform with the manner in which most other schools were counting that expense and with other changes in the NCAA’s reporting form.)
Ohio State’s revenues in 2018 were boosted by a dramatic increase in its media rights revenue, which rose to $42.6 million from $25.6 million. That’s a reflection of the Big Ten Conference’s new television contracts, which took effect during the 2018 fiscal year.
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/25/18197441/pac-12-title-game-levis-stadium-2020-las-vegas
The P12 has opted out of playing their 2020 CCG in Santa Clara.
From the abhorrent traffic to get there, to regular turf problems, to a giant wall of sealed luxury suits, to not being in a college football-obsessed area, Levi’s Stadium is not a good venue for college football. Along with that, attendance at the Pac-12 title game was a consistent issue for the game in Santa Clara.
The top choices seem to be the new NFL stadiums in Las Vegas and LA. The MBB tounrey has worked well in Las Vegas for the P12. I think the CCG would also do well there.
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https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/2019/01/a-rutgers-professor-called-a-booster-a-parasite-and-an-idiot-will-athletics-and-academics-ever-get-along-politi.html
Every university faces the conflict between athletics and academics. Is it worse at RU than other P5 schools?
This is what Ebright said when I asked him on Sunday morning if it was appropriate to call Amy Towers, a billionaire philanthropist appointed to the university’s Board of Governors last week, “a parasite and an idiot.” Those were Ebright’s words in a tweet on Saturday night, leading dozens of people in the Rutgers community — and rightly so — to fire back with their displeasure.
Ebright’s beef with Towers: She had the audacity to give part of her personal fortune to the athletic department to help build facilities for the university’s football team. That, in his estimation, made her unqualified for a seat on the university’s leadership panel — a position Ebright admits he took without studying her credentials beyond what appeared in this news story.
“It probably would have been more prudent, just as I said to you, to indicate that the donations directed to the athletic program do not support the core missions of the university and indicate a lack of familiarity or emphasis and interest on the core missions of the university,” Ebright said. “That’s one thing for a private citizen, it’s quite a different thing for a candidate for a member of the Board of Governors for a university.”
Does he really think BoG/BoT/BoR members at most P5s are not athletic donors and that donating to the AD should disqualify all of them from membership? Neither Towers nor her husband are RU alumni (WI and NE respectively, IIRC) but they chose to make large donations to RU. Towers is also a very successful businesswoman (former hedge fund manager). That sounds like the type of person I’d want running the school.
That won’t change the broader problem. The divide between the academic and athletic communities at Rutgers, present from the moment that the university started its pursuit of “big-time athletics” four decades ago, only seems to be deepening over recent years. And so is the resentment on both sides.
I figured, somewhat naively, that Rutgers joining the Big Ten in 2014 would quell some of the discord. …
Instead, the attacks seem to have intensified. …
…
Are conflicts like this normal at other places? Bob Mulcahy, the former Rutgers athletics director who faced his own resistance while building the football program in Piscataway, doesn’t think so.
“You don’t read about this crap with a lot of the other Big Ten universities,” Mulcahy said. “It’s like a lot of things with New Jersey. We seem to tear down a lot of our institutions.”
As I said, every school faces this to some degree. After all, OSU’s faculty turned down the Rose Bowl in 1962 because they felt athletics was too powerful. But I think there are a couple of factors in play here not unique to RU. First, losing ADs face a lot more of this than schools that win do. When teams win and donations and applications increase, faculty tends to be happier (or less unhappy) about athletics. Winning cures almost everything. NW dealt with this 20+ years ago. Stanford deals with it. Duke deals with it. The fact that elite schools can balance the issue should tell RU’s faculty it can be done.
Second, RU’s AD has been running large deficits at a time when state funding for schools has been dropping. Faculty hate seeing money going from the academic side to support athletics when they are struggling to fund their department. This factor may shrink at RU once the full B10 payments kick in and the deficits shrink and maybe disappear entirely (not sure how long it’ll take to pay off enough debt to get them to a balanced budget).
The Rutgers faculty has opposed other appointments. But the objection to Towers seems less about her overall qualifications — a simple internet search reveal their depth in both the business and philanthropy — and more about one simple fact: She supports the football team.
Would this be different had Towers donated $10 million to the chemistry department but had the same qualifications?
“That would indicate a clearer understanding of what core university missions are,” Ebright said. “That would be a very different situation. Again, we have an overemphasis on the athletic program, an overrepresentation on the board. Increasing that emphasis is not healthy to the university.”
But isn’t that donation to athletics also supporting Rutgers students? Isn’t there value in offering the best facilities and opportunities to them?
“I don’t think so, no,” Ebright said.
That’s an incredibly short-sighted view. If nothing else, donations to the AD mean less money coming from the academic side to support the AD. It’s not like some part of RU was getting that $10M no matter what and she chose the AD over academics. It might well have been $10M for the AD or nothing for anyone. Even the Ivies take sports seriously. They were the original CFB powerhouses after all, the ones building the biggest stadiums.
More evidence of the anti-sports vehemence at RU:
http://www.ru1000.org/RU1000.html
The RU 1000. Their web site starts with this:
UNTIL RUTGERS IS SET FREE FROM COMMERCIALIZED DIV IA ATHLETICS
We will not excuse. We will not equivocate. We will not retreat a single step. And we will be heard.
They believe that literally any money spent on athletics is wasted. I hate to point out to them that their idol Princeton spends almost $29M per year on athletics. And that doesn’t include any scholarship money which is a lie since we all know the Ivies do recruit athletes and bend the admissions process to get some of them in. And all the Ivies are D-I schools with “commercialized” MBB teams. Their claims that athletes at RU aren’t actual students is also wrong. Most athletes could get into their schools without special consideration. Besides, schools bend the rules for elite musicians and dancers too.
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Rutgers has had this “ersatz Ivy” persona ingrained in its DNA for decades. Things began to change slightly with the Phil Sellers-led Final Four team of 1975-76, followed by an 11-0 football season that fall (against three Ivies, Bucknell, Lehigh, Colgate and the like) but in ensuing decades the mindset changed but slightly.
People in the Northeast are generally ignorant about big-time athletics at public institutions and mistakenly believe only the Ivies and their ilk “do it right.” The contrast with expansion partner College Park, which has certainly had its share of problems with sports in recent decades but generally accepts what big-time (and now Big Ten) sports can do for a university after 61 years in the ACC and before that the Southern Conference, couldn’t be more apparent.
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Rutgers is such a dumpster fire. Delany called it a long-term play. Culturally I am unsure they ever play on equal footing. My guess is that there are many in the Big Ten offices that regret that move.
Private schools dominant the desires of most east coast families. In the Midwest I would suggest the Big Ten schools are the first choice for many/most students. Rutgers fans think they should be getting full share distributions since they bring so much to the Big Ten’s media deals. Really? If that were the case they would have brought more to the Big East or AAC deals.
Rutgers would be wise to consider cutting some sports to get to the NCAA minimum and focus their limited resources on their prominent sports.
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Kevin,
Culture may always remain an issue for RU but NW has managed some success in the B10 despite a stronger academic focus than the other members have. There’s no reason RU can’t attain the same level of success in time.
State schools in the midwest used to be so much cheaper than private schools that it was really apples and oranges. As costs rise, more and more people consider all options even as the quality of midwestern state schools has improved. All B10 members are upper echelon schools.
Let’s be honest, any fan base should think that way. Very few fans understand the finances of conferences, especially with the multiple conference network models out there. In addition, RU did add a lot to the B10 media deal. We’ll never know exactly how much but every school is making millions more now than they would be without RU and UMD.
The reason RU brings so much to the B10 and not the AAC or BE is BTN. All those cable subscribers in NJ (and at least parts of NYC) add up. $1 per month times millions of households times 12 months is a lot of money. All the B10 fans in NYC tuning in to watch RU get crushed also helped the tier 1 package.
RU resources really aren’t that limited. They had $97M in revenue in the 2016-17 fiscal year. In 2017-18 their B10 payout is supposed to jump by at least $12M and will grow another $20M by 2021. That would be enough to basically wipe out all the deficit spending and student fees if that is what they choose to do. And if RU could start to win some games they would see other revenue streams increase as well. Maybe 24 sports is a little too much for them right now but there is no need for them to cut to the NCAA minimum.
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Larry Scott spoke with Jon Wilner.
Two topics of note:
1. Scott says there isn’t a leader for getting the P12CCG in 2020 and beyond yet.
2. The P12 announced on Monday it retained the Raine Group to help find a strategic partner/investor. That sounds a lot like getting a partner for the P12N in effect if not legally.
Official announcement: https://pac-12.com/article/2019/01/28/pac-12-appoints-raine-group-media-advisor
The Pac-12 Conference announced today that it has engaged The Raine Group, a leading global investment bank focused exclusively on sports, media and technology, to work with the Conference on its media rights strategy, including opportunities to maximize the value of its full portfolio of media assets through strategic partnerships.
From Wilner:
Basically, Raine is charged with playing the role of matchmaker, helping the Pac-12 identify a long-term strategic partner. That partner, in turn, would provide immediate cash to the schools and help the conference position itself for upcoming media rights deals.
…
But in the wake of hiring Raine as an advisor, commissioner Larry Scott told the Hotline that he hopes the process does more than identify a source of cash.
“We’re most interested in a strategic partner that will help us prepare for 2024 and beyond,’’ Scott said. “The ability to invest is a secondary consideration …
“With a partner by our side, that strategic asset (the media-rights holding company) will allow us to build out and help the schools.”
…
Scott declined to discuss specifics, including the $5 billion valuation of Pac-12 media rights that appeared in the documents published by the Oregonian.
With Raine’s help, the process of identifying a strategic partner should take several months.
Pac-12 presidents and chancellors, who voted unanimously to explore a strategic partnership, have meetings scheduled for March and May.
A full report on their options from Raine — and potentially a vote on whether to move forward with an investor/partner — is more likely to come in May.
“The presidents and chancellors are aligned on this project,’’ Colorado chancellor Phil DiStefano, chair of the Pac-12’s CEO board, told the Hotline. “We want to explore what to do before ’24.
“Its a way of looking innovatively at ways to do things around media. I’m stressing strategic patience. We have three or four years’’ — until the negotiations for the next media deals — “and this will give us an opportunity to see what’s out there.”
…
The financial underperformance of the Pac-12 Networks seemingly has spurred the conference to seek an investor, with the cash helping bridge the revenue gap until the expected windfall in 2024.
In a news release issued early Monday announcing The Raine Group’s advisory role, DiStefano mentioned the need “to provide maximum support for our University athletic departments and our student-athletes.”
…
At the same time, the conference might decide against bringing on an investor/partner, based on the feedback it gets from Raine.
“I look at this as an exploration,” DiStefano said.
The Pac-12 pursued a similar strategy several years ago, hiring a consultant (Lazard Asset Management) to explore options for the Pac-12 Networks. The conference ultimately decided to retain full ownership, rather than selling equity.
…
Because there are so many potential bidders for the Pac-12 rights in 2024 — from legacy media companies to Over-The-Top distributors to Direct-to-Consumer players — there could be a wide variety of entities willing to partner with the conference now, in exchange for the cash infusion sought by the schools.
Scott emphasized that an investor would not own a piece of the conference itself but, rather, a minority percentage of the media rights holding company. He added that the conference currently has “capitalization” deals with media partners ESPN and Fox.
“That (new) entity would manage all of it with an investor,’’ Scott explained, “We could partner with someone who helps us develop plans.”
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A breakdown of B10 recruiting over the past 5 years by state and school.
Top states:
FL – 197
OH – 170
IL – 125
NJ – 107
TX – 95
MI – 91
GA – 88
MD – 86
PA – 69
CA – 62
IN – 62
Nobody else topped 46, with WI, IA and VA being the three in the 40s. The B10 is fairly diverse in terms of states but has a lot of dependence on states outside the footprint. You can see the benefits of adding UMD and RU though. It’s sad to see how far PA has dropped as a source of talent.
They also did the other P5 conferences. I thought the P12 was interesting.
Top states:
CA – 624
TX – 110
AZ – 97
WA – 76
FL – 67
UT – 64
No other state topped 45. Both GA and LA topped CO. Non-footprint western states other than HI (MT, WY, ID, NM) all were in single digits. I think it’s fair to say the P12 lives and dies based on CA recruiting.
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Oh FFS! Sorry about the full reddit posts coming in rather than just the links as I intended. I hate that WordPress does this. Unfortunately there is no edit feature either so I can’t strip them out by spacing the link out.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/01/29/ncaa-looks-to-decrease-chances-of-marathon-ot-football-games/38973789/
The NCAA wants to eliminate multi-OT death matches so they are looking at ways to tweak the OT format. Targeting will also be discussed as coaches want it to become a 2-tiered penalty (15 yds for everyone but only the egregious cases get ejected). The refs and others think it should stay binary.
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This is interesting.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/25885611/us-department-education-cites-michigan-state-university-clery-act-violations-espn-lines
MSU got some bad news from the DoE, but probably not all that bad for them. Add a few million to the cost of the Nassar scandal and they’ll move on.
The U.S. Department of Education has found that Michigan State University officials for years violated federal law by failing to comply with requirements that aim to ensure a safe campus, systemically underreported crime statistics, and — in the handling of sexual assault allegations against former athletics physician Larry Nassar — demonstrated “a lack of institutional control.”
…
“As noted throughout this report, the findings documented by the department constitute serious violations of the Clery Act that, by their nature, cannot be cured. There is no way to truly ‘correct’ violations of these important campus safety and crime prevention laws once they occur,” the report said.
…
Michigan State officials have until Feb. 12 to respond to federal officials about the Clery report, after which the federal investigators will review any additional materials and issue a final determination. The school, which remains under “active investigation” by federal officials, could face financial penalties in addition to possible restrictions involving the ability to receive federal financial aid. As a result of the findings in the report, the university’s application for recertification to receive federal financial aid is on hold; the university is currently participating in the program on a month-to-month basis.
Clery Act fines have risen in recent years and can reach up to $56,000 per violation, depending on when each violation occurred. In September, the Department of Education fined the University of Montana nearly $1 million for crime-reporting failures, the second-largest fine ever. The largest was the nearly $2.4 million fine levied against Penn State University in November 2016 in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky child abuse scandal.
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http://mattsarzsports.blogspot.com/2019/01/big-12-football-championship-game-rights.html
Matt Sarzyniak goes deeper into Fox dropping the B12CG.
1) The cost of the game to FOX, reported to be in the $20 million range, didn’t justify the return FOX could get for carrying the game. EDIT: a separate SBJ piece for their Daily publication notes that FOX gained the rights to the 2017 game only through mediation involving conference expansion that didn’t occur.
2) Scheduling. I’ll go into this one in further details.
Scheduling issues:
* JerryWorld availability on Friday night (Cowboys play at home the Thursday after Thanksgiving)
* WWE Smackdown taking up the Fox window Friday night
* Saturday Fox has the B10CG in primetime and the SECCG dominates at 3:30 leaving only noon which the fans hate.
As for the value to Fox:
FOX sought to have their payout decreased, maybe in exchange for guaranteeing the early afternoon slot on the broadcast network or for the game to air on FS1 at night (I know neither of these things to be factual, so take those with a grain of salt). It sounds like the minimum the Big 12 would take for a rights fee was still too much for FOX to pay.
The 2017 game had a 3.8 rating for FOX (Oklahoma vs. TCU). It had a 6.2 for Texas vs. Oklahoma, and maybe FOX looks at that as a barometer for what the game can get on its best matchup & everything else being less than that for the cost it pays.
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The Southeastern Conference distributed about $604.1 million of total revenue among its 14 member institutions for the 2017-18 fiscal year, an average of about $43.1 million per school.
The league said the 2017-18 total does not include $23 million that was retained by its schools to offset travel and bowl-related expenses.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/25900708/sec-schools-get-431m-revenue-sharing
The SEC has long led the Power Five conferences in revenue distribution to its schools, but the Big Ten was expected to surpass it during the 2018 fiscal year.
In June 2018, The Detroit News reported that Michigan’s athletics department expected to receive about $51 million from the Big Ten in 2018 and $52 million in 2019. The Big Ten distributed about $37 million to most of its schools in 2017.
The Big 12 announced in June that it would distribute an average of about $36.5 million to its schools for the 2017-18 fiscal year; that total did not include third-tier TV rights for each school, such as the Longhorn Network.
The Pac-12 projected distributions of about $33.5 million per school in fiscal year 2018, and the ACC anticipated average distributions of about $28 million.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/02/01/sec-passed-big-ten-per-school-distribution-after-record-revenue/2743885002/
We knew this was coming, but now it’s official. The B10 jumped the SEC in average distribution per school.
The SEC had just under $660 million in revenue during its 2018 fiscal year, according to a federal tax return that the conference provided Friday.
That resulted in an average of $43.7 million being distributed to the 13 member schools that received full shares. Mississippi did not get a full share because of its football team was banned from postseason play.
The Big Ten Conference likely distributed a little more than $50 million to each of its 12 schools that got full revenue shares in fiscal 2018, according to schools’ recent financial disclosures.
The Big Ten, which began new television agreements during the 2018 fiscal year, generally does not file its federal tax return until the spring. So, its revenue total for fiscal 2018 has not yet been made public. However, through open-records requests, USA TODAY Sports has obtained fiscal 2018 financial reports to the NCAA for six of the 12 schools receiving full shares. A seventh school announced the amount of its share last June. Maryland and Rutgers, the conference’s two most recent additions, still are moving toward full shares.
The Big Ten reported distributing about $37 million to its longest-standing members in fiscal 2017. (Nebraska received a full share for the first time in fiscal 2018.)
…
[the SEC]
Since reporting nearly $326 million for 2014, its revenue totals have been $527 million, $639 million and $650 million prior to its 2018 figure.
In each of those last three years, the SEC was far ahead of the major conference that finished with the second-highest revenue total. The annual differences were $79 million, $151 million and $137 million.
Ole Miss lost about $7M to other schools, so the SEC average is inflated by about $500k per school. So make that $43.2M per SEC school as a reference point. The puts the B10 roughly $7M per school ahead for this year, or $100M overall. So call it over $750M in revenue for the B10.
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Brian – the article states that 12 B1G schools likely received the $50mm distribution and that Rutgers & Maryland are still moving toward full shares. While I don’t know what the reduction is for Rutgers and Maryland, it doesn’t look like you calculated any reduced share for them in your $750mm calculation.
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It’s all estimates anyway, but I think it works out.
MI reported “about $51M” from your article.
51 – 43.2 = 7.8.
7.8 * 12 = 93.6.
The SEC had “just under $660M” in revenue from my article.
660 + 93.6 = 753.6
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And yes, I do see the point you are making.
We are dealing with lots of guesses on the B10 side. RU is supposed to get about $24.6M since they advanced some of the their full share money forward, but that number may be off (did they change their deal again?). I haven’t seen good projections for UMD but they got over $37M last year, so equivalent to a full share. UMD chose to pull money forward as part of joining the B10, so we don’t know when they will actually be getting a full share with the 0% loan paid back and year-to-year shifting done. UMD could get anywhere from $37-51M depending on their deal.
So could the B10 total revenue be < $750M? Easily. We know it should have a floor of 12 * 51.1 + 24.6 + 37 = 674.8M and that is before expenses. The SEC paid out 14 * 43.2 = 604.8M from a total revenue of just under 660M. That's 50-55.1M in expenses or money kept for the conference. If the B10 has the same overhead, then we have a floor of 725-730M. And that's assuming the the 51.1M estimate from MI turns out to be accurate. Usually they underestimate projected revenue a little as good accountants always do. The B10 also might have greater overhead because of running BTN and for accounting for partial shares.
I'm not sure how the B10 is accounting for partial shares schools get. It is supposed to be a buy-in to an equal share of BTN. Does all that extra money pass straight through the B10 and increase the other 12 payouts equally? Does it go into a rainy day fund? In other words, does a full share represent 1/14th of the profit or is it (profit – payouts to RU and UMD)/12? I do not know the answer.
Long story short, don't put a ton of credence in my number because I know it's built on a shaky foundation. But that's the only foundation available.
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Update on Disney’s sale of the FOX RSNs.
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https://www.howcollegesspendmoney.com/
A new website that let’s you compare how schools spend their money on the academic side.
Two out of three college students now graduate with an average of over $28,000 in student debt, and the price of tuition continues to rise at an unsustainable rate, faster even than health care. So how do colleges spend that money?
Built specifically for college trustees, policymakers, and other higher education decision-makers, this site is designed to equip the people who oversee colleges and universities with the tools to perform their own analysis of higher education spending trends, and create benchmarks in comparison with other institutions.
You can pick groups of schools to compare using lots of different filters (Carnegie classification, athletic conference, membership association, location, enrollment, public/private). You can compare a few different stats (admin cost per student, instructional cost per student, admin/instruction cost ratio, inflation-adjusted tuition, tuition as % of median state income, grad rates). The data goes back to 2008-09. I should also mention that you can compare to multiple groups at the same time. You can export the data, too.
They give all the warnings about comparing apples and oranges, but it is fun to play with.
I compared OSU to the B10 minus OSU and NW for example. OSU had higher admin costs and slightly higher instructional costs per student, thus having a higher A/I ratio. OSU’s tuition was lower, though. Compared to median income OSU and the other B10 schools were the same (about 20%). Grad rates were about the same too, and climbed about 12% over the period.
Then I did OSU vs B10, AAU and SEC. I got the expected results. The SEC was a little cheaper and the AAU was a lot more expensive. Maybe the only surprise was that the SEC was higher in tuition compared to median income, but it wasn’t by a large amount and the median income in the south is low. The SEC also lagged in grad rates while the AAU was ahead.
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https://www.sunherald.com/sports/college/conference-usa/university-of-southern-mississippi/article225495440.html
Southern Miss is considering hiring Art Briles as their OC.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25937562/art-briles-no-longer-candidate-offensive-coordinator-southern-mississippi-golden-eagles
The school president said no to Briles and the football coach is upset. Way to have your priorities straight, coach.
“We have met with Art Briles regarding a position with the Southern Miss football program,” the school said in a statement Wednesday morning. “Following that meeting, we informed him that he is not a candidate. The university will have no further comment on this matter.”
Hopson, who interviewed Briles for the job, issued a statement disagreeing with university president Rodney Bennett regarding Briles’ candidacy.
“I have interviewed Art Briles for an assistant position @ Southern Miss & I believe he is a man who deserves a second chance,” Hopson wrote in his statement. “He is a man that seemed sincere & humble in his interview & personally he committed no crime. He may not have acted in the proper protocol, but that should be my JOB at Southern Miss! He was interviewing for an assistant position, even though I believe he will be a Head coach at a Major Program in the near future.”
Really? The “he seemed like a nice guy” argument? Care to say that to a victims face, coach?
Briles aided and abetted his players raping women. And aren’t assistants supposed to report things? Why would anyone trust Briles to do that?
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25933537/incoming-uconn-president-thomas-katsouleas-says-committed-football-aac
UConn’s new president says he is committed to I-A football and the AAC.
Thomas Katsouleas, the provost and executive vice president of the University of Virginia, was appointed Tuesday as the next president of UConn. He will take over the job in August.
“It’s important to both [athletic director] David [Benedict] and me that we build a culture of winning at UConn and leverage that culture of success to benefit every aspect of the university, including academics,” Katsouleas said.
The school recently reported that athletic expenses outpaced revenues last year by more than $40 million. To help close its budget gap, the athletic division received $30 million in institutional support and another $8.5 million from student fees last year.
That revelation led to editorials and calls from some in the university community to cut football or scale back the program to the FCS level. The football program, which suffered through a 1-11 season, was responsible for $8.7 million of the deficit.
“Yes, I’m committed to football,” Katsouleas said Tuesday. “I think it’s part of the identity of who we are as a major, broad-context university, and I don’t think the savings from cutting it are as great as people think. In fact, it has ancillary value for the other sports and for fundraising overall.”
He said he has no plans to move UConn out of the American Athletic Conference into a Power 5 conference.
…
“Right now we’re in a good conference, and we’re committed to building that conference up,” Katsouleas said.
…
Benedict said he has not yet had a chance to discuss the details of the school’s athletic finances with Katsouleas.
“It takes getting into the true details of things so that people can have a true understanding when they are making statements like that,” Benedict said. “But he understands the integral role that athletics plays on a college campus and how they can impact a university as a whole.”
No more attempts at the P5? I’ll believe that when I don’t see it.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/02/06/mlb-union-discuss-major-rule-changes/2787961002/
MLB considering some major rule changes. Some are aimed at speeding up the game.
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are discussing major rule changes that would impact the league on and off the field, an official with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed to USA TODAY Sports.
…
Some of the more dramatic changes include a universal designated hitter, a three-batter minimum for pitchers and a 20-second pitch clock.
Other proposals include a trade deadline before the All-Star break, the expansion of rosters to 26 players – with a 12-pitcher minimum, draft benefits for winning teams and penalties for losing teams, regulations that would allow two-sport amateurs (like Kyler Murray) to sign major-league deals and a study to lower the mound in the majors.
One of commissioner Rob Manfred’s major initiatives during his tenure has been to improve the game’s pace of play, something the pitch clock and three-batter minimum for pitchers would theoretically address.
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I thought the 20 sec rule already existed, or do you mean an actual clock, visible to everyone?
For all the complaints about baseball’s slowness, football is the worst. A typical football game lasts about 3 to 3 1/2 hours, of which 2 to 2 1/2 hours are down time where nothing happens. Basketball is also a slow game: 48 minutes stretches out at least 2 to 2 1/2 hours. The last 5 minutes of a basketball game are infamously long.
Sitting in a stadium or arena, the amount of down time is painful. But sitting at home, the down time is filled with all sorts of reruns, replays, commentary, and the delays are not so obvious.
The down time in football and basketball are probably needed so the players can catch their breaths. Even soccer, supposedly continuous, has a lot of walking, slow jogs and just plain standing around. Again TV hides all that.
In baseball, the ball is always in play unless there is a time-out (usually requested by batters) or there is an end of inning. It is true that the pace is leisurely, until there is a hit or steal when all Hell breaks loose, but that pace is actually appropriate to a game played in the summer under the sun.
For every post you put up complaining about the slowness of baseball, you should put up at least one about the slowness of football and basketball.
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The minors use a pitch clock but MLB doesn’t. MLB toyed with the idea last year but didn’t implement it because the MLBPA protested.
“In baseball, the ball is always in play unless there is a time-out (usually requested by batters) or there is an end of inning.”
Technically in play, but more than 90% of that time is also nothing happening (a pitcher staring at a catcher, or staring at a runner, etc). And don’t forget stepping off the mound, coaches coming to the mound, mid-inning breaks, pitching changes, calling for a new ball, asking for new signals, etc.
A typical MLB game has just under 18 minutes of action, with less than 6 minutes of the ball actually in play and 12 minutes of other (foul balls, pitches, etc). And let’s remember that about 2-3 players are in action at any given time in baseball unlike other team sports. At peak action in football or hoops every player is in action at the same time.
“It is true that the pace is leisurely, until there is a hit or steal when all Hell breaks loose, but that pace is actually appropriate to a game played in the summer under the sun.”
That’s not the only time it’s played and it is MLB pushing these pace of play rules, not outsiders.
“For every post you put up complaining about the slowness of baseball, you should put up at least one about the slowness of football and basketball.”
1. Nothing is slower than baseball. Nothing.
People complain about game length in football all the time. I’ve linked multiple articles about it and attempts to shorten CFB games in particular. Tons of people complain about the eternity that is the end of any semi-close hoops game including hoops fans.
2. My comment contains no complaints and neither does the article. It simply conveys the news that MLB and the MLBPA are discussing some new rules which include some aimed at pace of play.
If the game ever gets too fast, you can always fall back on watching paint dry or grass grow.
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/2/5/18211679/college-football-rankings-last-five-years-florida-state-pac-12
A sign of the P12’s (and ACC’s) issues in CFB last year. Bill Connelly (stats guy) looked at his 5-year averages for teams and compared 2013-2017 vs 2014-2018.
Here are the 11 Power 5 teams that saw their averages fall the most:
(Why 11 and not 10? You’ll see.)
Florida State (down 7.4)
Louisville (down 6.7)
Oregon State (down 5.6)
Kansas State (down 4.4)
Oregon (down 4.3)
UCLA (down 4.1)
Baylor (down 3.7)
North Carolina (down 3.2)
USC (down 2.6)
Arizona State (down 2.5)
Arizona (down 2.2)
My goodness, I just listed three ACC teams … and half the dang Pac-12. And if I expanded this list to 14 teams, I would rope in two more ACC teams (Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech) and a seventh from out west (Stanford).
That’s not good for either conference. The most improved teams were spread evenly.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25952779/ohio-state-gene-smith-stepping-cfp-committee
Gene Smith is stepping down from the CFP committee and will be replaced by Iowa AD Gary Barta. Smith wanted to be available to help new coach Ryan Day.
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Some PAC media info:
(Personal aside, Wilner seemed to restrain himself for the most part.)
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/02/08/pac-12-media-strategy-the-future-is-about-the-ability-to-slice-and-dice-content-says-the-man-advising-the-conference/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
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I take issue with some of Ravitch’s opinions.
1. OTT will certainly keep growing, but be the dominant form of TV in 2-3 years? Millions of people still use antennas and tens of millions use cable/satellite, especially for sports. OTT may get a plurality by then, but dominance seems highly unlikely.
2. Haven’t the P12 fan bases proven they don’t have a lot of cult fans? How many people are willing to pay something extra on top of the other TV costs just to watch P12 sports? Most conferences already stream their minor sports (some for free I think) and still don’t get many views.
3. For the P12’s sake I hope they prove me wrong and sign a blockbuster deal with one of the FAAMG. But right now I just don’t see the value.
* In Ravitch’s vision, Over-The-Top rules the world in a few years and linear TV is an afterthought.
“Amazon is 100 percent focused on sports. Apple is looking at sports rights deals. Look at ESPN+,’’ he said. “The OTT wars are just starting.”
* In Ravitch’s vision, the ‘Pac12NewCo’ — the Oregonian was the first to report the plan — could not only sell but acquire rights … and do so both domestically and internationally.
The Pac-12 presidents, don’t forget, have cast an eye to Asia for branding, athletic and educational initiatives. (Also: Asian students pay full-cost tuition at Pac-12 universities.)
“It could become a really big company internationally,” Ravitch said. “We’re creating an entity that thinks about long-term value creation … for the universities.”
* In Ravitch’s vision, ‘Pac12NewCo’ is an entity “that could someday go public.”
…
At its core, Ravitch’s vision is based on one fact and one theory.
Fact: The Pac-12 will have every football, men’s basketball and Olympic sports event — more than 900 in total — available for sale at the negotiating table in a few years.
Theory: “By 2021-22,” Ravitch said, “Over-The-Top will be the dominant form of distribution.”
…
Hasn’t the marketplace already spoken? The only Pac-12 content with real value is the premium football package currently owned by ESPN and Fox. There doesn’t appear to be much demand for all the inventory on the Pac-12 Networks. Do you see that dynamic changing in some fashion?
“What the Pac-12 has,” he responded, “is a massive amount of tonnage, and SVoD (Subscription Video on Demand) is for cult audiences. Think about Netflix. So it becomes about attracting cult audiences in sports.
“There are a ton of ways to slice and dice the (Pac-12) content. There are an infinite number of ways you can license the content to Amazon or OTT.
“All the Tier 2 events (Olympic sports) that don’t rate on broadcast television? There’s room for those in the OTT world.
…
What’s next?
“A lot of decisions need to be made,’’ Ravitch said. “But more important is who the partner is.
“I’m very optimistic about a deal. It’s a matter of who wants it and who appreciates it. And do we bring in a distributor into the company as a partner, or stay neutral?”
His best guess on when the Pac-12 will have clarity on its options and be in position for a decision.
“End of May.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25947938/us-senators-urge-power-5-commissioners-enhance-sexual-violence-policies
A group of senators is pushing the P5 to do more about sexual violence. Maybe they should talk to Betsy DeVos about the changes in Title IX policy first.
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NFL combine invitees by conference:
SEC: 90
Big Ten: 53
ACC: 46
Pac-12: 39
Big 12: 33
Adjusting for conference size:
SEC: 6.4 per team
Big Ten: 3.8
ACC: 3.3
Big 12: 3.3
Pac-12: 3.3
One of these things is not like the others.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25967506/portals-waivers-future-college-football-free-agency
ESPN examines whether the new transfer portal and relaxed waiver process is turning CFB into free agency or is just appropriately player friendly.
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“appropriately”
?
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Yes, appropriately. Clearly the portal and waiver process are player friendly. The issue being discussed is whether they go too far and essentially create free agency or just create a player friendly environment. The presumption in the article is that free agency is a bad thing.
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Yes, appropriately. Clearly the new system is player friendly. The presumption in the article is that free agency would be a bad thing. The issue it discusses is whether the new system essentially creates free agency or is just appropriately player friendly.
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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/12-fewer-indians-applying-to-us-graduate-schools/articleshow/67952486.cms
We have discussed the importance of international students to B10 schools. The number of students has been dropping lately (since 2015).
Indian applications have dropped for three consecutive years after seeing double-digit growth rates between 2012 and 2015. China has remained more stable, though its tense ties with the US have impacted application numbers. Most regions saw declines with only Latin American showing a modest increase in applications.
This has hit engineering especially hard.
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I haven’t seen significant numbers of Indian graduate students since the 1970’s. Latin American, Korean and Taiwanese students have also disappeared. There never were any Japanese. I saw one in 50years. (My best and most successful PhD student was Taiwanese.) But Chinese graduate students abound. They are the most common foreign students in every university, and they are a majority of students in some STEM departments.
The traditional problem of US graduate STEM programs, going back to the 19th Century, is that Americans don’t do grad school. It’s baked into our culture.
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Really? I suppose it varies from department to department. Generally there are a lot of Indian students in aerospace engineering.
Click to access annual_report_2018.pdf
2018 OSU engineering stats:
1833 grad students
1419 male (77.4%)
1097 international (59.9%)
70 under-represented minorities (3.8%)
263 international women:
141 from China, 61 from India, 14 from S Korea, 6 from Iran and Turkey
873 international men:
414 from China, 225 from India, 40 from S Korea, 39 from Iran
It varies from year to year though.
2017 enrolled grad students: 40% from USA, 60% international
2018 enrolled grad students: 46% from USA, 54% international
The acceptance rate is roughly 60% for US applicants but less than 25% for international applicants.
The article is referring to students at all levels, though.
International students are less than 9% of the undergrad engineering students (587 of 6474). The nationalities change a little for them:
China – 351
Malaysia – 151
India – 46
S Korea – 33
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The 2019 NFL draft will finally end 2 long streaks of QB draft futility when Dwayne Haskins becomes a 1st round pick.
No B10 QB has been drafted in the first round since Kerry Collins from PSU in 1995. More than 30 B10 QBs have been drafted since then, but only a few have even been 2nd round picks (Drew Brees was the 1st pick of the 2nd round).
No OSU QB has been drafted in the first round since Art Schlichter in 1982. 57 schools have provided the 86 QBs drafted in the 1st round since then.
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Not only is Pac-12 Network stagnating, it is shrinking in reach and revenue expectations
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In a move sure to thrill ccrider55, Jon Wilner took a deep dive into the P12N from the perspective of the campuses – initial expectations, reach and financial reality. It has new financial and audience data, not just opinion. This is the 4th in a series of articles he has done from different perspectives.
Wilner also gives this caveat:
At the same time, the networks are one piece of the larger canvass that is the Pac-12’s long-haul media strategy, and the Hotline is attempting to cover all angles.
Links to previously-published content on that strategy are included with this morning’s article. I’d encourage everyone to read/listen to as much as possible to get the full view, from 40,000 feet and from ground level.
There is a ton of good stuff in this piece and I suggest reading it in its entirety. There are lots of quotes. I will just quote some of the numerical stuff below.
Launched in Aug. 2012, the networks have reached a point in their life cycle, according to several industry analysts, when they should be growing incrementally or holding steady. Instead, they’re losing audience.
Information provided to the Hotline by SNL Kagan, the renown media research firm, indicates the Pac-12 Networks have lost seven percent of their subscribers since the peak in 2016, with much of the decline attributed to the discontinuation of service on U-verse last year.
With just 17.9 million subscribers (per Kagan), …
…
By comparison, the Big Ten and SEC networks have three or four times the audience of the Pac-12 Networks and are believed to generate three or four times the revenue for the schools, as well.
That disparity is due, in part, to contrasting business models:
…
the Pac-12, which has a smaller population within its footprint, lower ratings for its games and less fan affinity, eschewed a partner and retained 100 percent ownership.
…
However, in a pre-launch presentation attended by athletic directors, Scott dazzled the room by providing three ranges of annual payouts (once the networks had exited the start-up phase).
According to a source who attended the presentation, those payout ranges were:
High end: $7 million-to-$10 million per school per year
Middle: $5 million-to-$7 million per school per year
Low end: $3 million-to-$5 million per school per year.
When asked about that guidance, former Washington State athletic director Bill Moos said he didn’t recall the exact figures but remembered vividly the reaction in the room.
“We were all giddy,’’ Moos said. “And we wouldn’t have been a giddy over $2 million (per year).
“We were just coming off the biggest Tier 1 deal in the history off college sports” — the $3 billion agreement with ESPN and Fox — “and everybody was jumping up and down. (Scott) had just walked the walk, so why shouldn’t we believe him?”
…
Nor does the conference distribute financial details to the schools, thereby avoiding the potential for those details to be subject to public records requests.
Instead, the annual payout figures are made available for temporary viewing by campus financial officers on a secure website, according to multiple sources.
“It’s very frustrating,’’ one administrator said.
The figure provided on the website is a lump-sum amount. Two Hotline sources with access have copied down that amount over the years, then dived by 12 to determine the payouts to each school.
Those payout numbers are as follows:
2013: None listed
2014: $862,000 per school
2015 $1,677,500 per school
2016 $1,980,250 per school
2017: $2,522,167 per school
2018: $2,666,667 per school
Over the six completed fiscal years of the networks’ existence, the total payout per school, as tallied by campus officials, is $9,708,584 per school — not even at the top end of the single-year range referenced by the source who attended Scott’s presentation.
…
But in order to acquire that inventory, the conference needed each athletic department to buy back the TV rights to local football and basketball broadcasts
…
In most cases, the cost of repurchasing the local rights was substantial.
Over a four-year period, for example, UCLA had $5.6 million “carved out” of a larger sponsorship deal with IMG as compensation for the loss of its TV rights, according to a school official.
Back that figure out of the $9.7 million distributed to each campus by the Pac-12 Networks, and the Bruins have received $4.1 million in net revenue. That’s an average of $683,333 per year over six years of the networks.
Cal reported a bigger hit over a longer buy-back process, reimbursing IMG to the tune of $7.1 million over five years.
Remove that from the Pac-12 Networks’ payout, and the Bears have received an average of $433,333 in net annual revenue — or 1/20th of the amount in the high range of the scenario presented to athletic directors.
…
Oregon State must compensate Learfield $1 million annually through 2022 for the repurchase of its local TV rights.
Carve $6 million out of OSU’s total payout thus far from the Pac-12 Networks, and the Beavers are left with an average of $616,000 per year in net distributions.
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Apparently his article struck some nerves as Wilner got a lot of emails, tweets and radio interviews about this.
From his free newsletter:
Over and over, regardless of the platform, the same three, interconnected questions surfaced: What are the options? Is there any way out? OK, this is depression; so what’s next?
In short: There are no options — at least no game-changing options for the Pac-12 Networks — because of existing contracts.
Here’s an attempt to answer the questions:
• Could the conference sell equity in the Pac-12 Networks to create a structure similar to what the Big Ten has with Fox?
…
Not. Happening.
• Could the conference strike a deal with DirecTV?
…
Not. Happening.
• Why not make the Pac-12 Networks available for $5 or $10 a month on a Direct-To-Consumer basis through, for instance, Roku?
…
Can’t. Happen.
…
• So the conference is stuck?
Not exactly.
The Pac-12 Networks are stuck, but the conference isn’t stuck. And it’s exploring the one option available: Create a holding company for its media rights (the content currently on ESPN, Fox and the Pac12Nets) and sell a portion of that company to an investor in exchange for up-front cash.
It’s a creative approach, the only way to generate significant cash before 2024 without having to sell equity in the Pac-12 Networks themselves. The holding company would retain all of the media rights for the 2024 negotiating cycle to create maximum value.
There’s no guarantee the schools will ultimately agree to sell equity, or that the preferred strategic partner will be motivated at the right price. But it’s smart to explore every option given the predicament with the Pac-12 Networks.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25999149/ncaa-committee-reviewing-college-football-transfer-guidelines
The NCAA’s Committee for Legislative relief has started a comprehensive review of the NCAA’s new transfer policies. They will determine whether the waiver guidelines need to be changed after getting input from a variety of sources and evaluating the data.
Prior to last year’s rule change, players that wanted to skip the traditional one-year waiting period that comes with a transfer had to demonstrate extraordinary circumstances or hardship. New rules state that the player must be in good academic standing, have no objections from the school they are leaving and show they are leaving “due to documented mitigating circumstances that are outside the student-athlete’s control and directly impact the health, safety and well-being of the student-athlete.”
The NCAA says 29 FBS football players have asked for immediate eligibility since the start of the 2018-19 academic year and 19 of them (65.5 percent) have been granted their request. Members of the Division I Football Oversight Committee decided they were in favor of allowing immediately eligibility in cases with extraordinary circumstances, but do not believe that the majority of players who apply should be granted waivers. McKittrick said the committee that makes those decisions doesn’t have a specific approval percentage in mind when weighing the merit of each case.
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19 of 29. Like Justin Fields at Ohio St.. Some drunk baseball player at Georgia (who lost his scholarship) shouted “Play the nword.” So he has a “hostile” environment. Of course, his sister is perfectly happy at Georgia.
Most players don’t throw their previous school under the bus with made up bs. But then that is kind of what this rule encourages. But Justin doesn’t seem to have the class of Jacob Eason (Georgia to Washington) or Shane Buchele (Texas to SMU).
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We know that incident happened, so I don’t see how it is made up bs or throwing your former school under the bus. We don’t actually know what reasons he gave the NCAA, though. His lawyer said there was more to the situation but never gave details and neither has Fields.
This is the heart of the issue. What conditions are sufficient to justify a waiver?
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Part 5 in Wilner’s series on the P12 and media issues.
Based on CBS’s announced plan to re-up with the SEC well before their current deal ends in 2023 and the upcoming ACCN, Wilner attempts to compare conference revenues assuming the P12 also sells a small stake in the P12’s rights as Scott suggested recently.
2018 numbers estimates:
B10 – $51M
SEC – $43.7M
B12 – $38M
P12 – $32.5M
ACC – $28M
With new ACC and SEC deals (just added on to 2018 #s, not adjusting for contract growth):
SEC – $61.5M
B10 – $51M
B12 – $38M
ACC – $34.5M
P12 – $32.5M
Assuming P12 sells 10% stake for $425M = $35.4M per school. Amortized over the 5 years remaining on the P12’s current TV deal, that’s $7.1M per year per school.
SEC – $61.5M
B10 – $51M
P12 – $39.6M
B12 – $38M
ACC – $34.5M
Key point, which often gets overlooked:
When you account for the differences in fan affinity and TV homes, the Pac-12 should trail the SEC and Big Ten and be comparable to the ACC and Big 12.
Except in this situation, the conference would be in that position after selling 10 percent of its media rights.
Does that mean the Pac-12 should abort its pursuit of an equity sale? Nope.
Could the schools use the cash? Of course.
But it’s unlikely that a windfall would erase the revenue gap on an annualized basis.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cbs-corp-cbs-q4-2018-021730232.html
The comment from CBS came on a financial call.
Sean McManus — Chairman, CBS Sports
…
All of these long-term deals are the result of decades long relationships that we enjoy with our major rights holders. Both parties have mutually benefited and having big live sporting events is more important than ever in this rapidly changing media landscape. That’s true not only for our broadcast network but also for our digital platforms. The longer we lock up preeminent sports properties, the better positioned we are strategically. And our top-tier properties extend into the next decade and beyond. This includes our deal for March Madness, which runs through 2032 and at the conclusion will mark 51 consecutive years on CBS. It also includes SEC Football, the highest rated college football package for 10 straight years, which goes through 2023. We expect to reach a long-term extension well before then keeping the best games from the best conference here on CBS. That also includes the Army-Navy football game, which extends through 2028 and it includes our 59-year partnership with the PGA TOUR, which continues through 2021. We also plan to renew these rates well before the expiration of these agreements.
Will they wait until 2023 to start the new deal or will they start a better deal in 2020 or 2021 perhaps?
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/pac-12-goes-shark-tank-route-to-keep-pace-off-the-field-as-it-struggles-to-compete-on-it/
Dennis Dodd asked a former hedge fund manager to evaluate the P12’s plan to sell a 10% stake in their rights for $500M.
That’s what the Pac-12 would be doing to goose a bottom line that is lagging. First, you have to assume there is a person or company out there willing to invest $500 million for the worst-performing Power Five football entity of recent times. Second, you better believe that investor would want a big return.
…
“College football is a product, just like Coke, just like Dr. Pepper, just like Ford cars,” our financial expert said. “This is a product, and [the Pac-12 is] a company that has a product for sale. They may say it’s not correlated with the market, but it really is.”
…
“I think the most interesting and impactful question to ask … is what is the exit strategy?” the expert said. “What is the liquidity event going to be because private equity guys are going to get their money back.”
To summarize the reaction in college athletics, we take you to last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal in at the Cotton Bowl. Shortly before kickoff, a high-powered college executive stopped short as he was walking across the back of an AT&T Stadium end zone. He was incredulous after reading the terms of the equity play on his phone.
“Jim Delany,” that executive said of that league’s commissioner, “values the Big Ten at $2 billion.”
Do the math on that $500 million investment for a 10 percent stake, and the Pac-12 is valuing itself as a $5 billion enterprise. Our expert put its actual valuation at around $3.6 billion. That’s still high compared any other conference.
“There’s a big disconnect between what they’re talking and what a fair valuation might be,” he said. “[Scott] might say there’s no other asset available like this on the market. I’d have a hard time [investing] when it’s valued at two-and-a-half what the Big Ten and Big 12 are worth.
“If [Scott] thinks he’s going to get top dollar for the piece of the business that he’s selling, that’s probably not going to happen. They’re going to have to give up more than 10 percent [at a] $500 million valuation.”
If so, that means there will a person or persons who would conceivably want more than a periodic conference call to update their investment. Sooner or later, it’s fair to assume investors would want something close to day-to-day decision-making power.
The documents obtained by the Oregonian suggest that $500 million would be a 15-year investment and potentially be valued at more than $8 billion. The biggest near-term windfall would be 2025 when the Pac-12’s current media rights deal with ESPN and Fox run out.
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Just for fun, does anyone wish to project the Power 5 landscape when the next round of realignment is finished in the mid-2020s? I sense there will be fewer moves than many observers earlier anticipated because of the changing media environment (cord cutting, uncertainty whether Google, Apple, Netflix et al want to be involved in college sports, etc.). So here goes:
* ACC: Status quo because it’s already a 15-member league (including Notre Dame as a semi-member) and because of its long grant-of-rights with ESPN. The only alternative I envision is Texas becoming “team 16,” incorporating the Longhorn Network into ESPN’s ACC network, with UT playing several full-time ACC members in football as an ND-style independent.
* Big Ten: Adding Kansas and Oklahoma, thus sending Purdue to football’s East Division. This of course assumes KU and OU can politically divorce themselves from K-State and Okie State.
* Big 12: The league will survive for the simple reason that the members not named Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have nowhere else to go. It will replenish with several members from the American, as few as two and as many as five. The leading candidates for addition: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida. The new Big 12 will be slightly below the other four major all-sports conferences, but significantly ahead of the next tier (American, Mountain West, Conference USA, etc.)
* Pac: Geography and academics limit its options (no Boise State or Brigham Young), and the option of adding Oklahoma and Texas schools has probably sailed for good. But two candidates are lurking below the radar — Nevada and UNLV. The Silver State is growing rapidly (just as Arizona did in the 1970s), and we know the Pac is interested in Las Vegas as sites for its basketball tournaments and football title game. The question is whether both schools have progressed academically to satisfy the fussy Pac presidents. By 2025, they may have.
* SEC: Several schools (notably West Virginia) may be interested, but is the SEC similarly attracted? Probably not, unless Oklahoma could be lured, and the Sooners have eyes on the B1G. It almost certainly will maintain the status quo.
Your thoughts, and predicted scenario?
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vp81955,
“Just for fun, does anyone wish to project the Power 5 landscape when the next round of realignment is finished in the mid-2020s? I sense there will be fewer moves than many observers earlier anticipated because of the changing media environment (cord cutting, uncertainty whether Google, Apple, Netflix et al want to be involved in college sports, etc.).”
I think the lack of desirable schools that are able to move is an even bigger obstacle than the media environment. Unless someone is willing to challenge a GoR, and I don’t think any conference wants to open that can of worms, the ACC and ND are off the table. That leaves the B12 schools as the only viable options to switch P5s since I do not believe a P12 school will ever leave the P12 voluntarily. So we’re down to UT, OU, KU and maybe some little brothers.
I think the most likely outcome is the status quo. UT is happy in the B12 and I doubt that OU wants to leave badly enough to walk away from UT. And if both UT and OU stay put, KU has no partner to go with. I also think conference members see the problems with 14 teams and are really wondering if 16 is worth it. Adding UT or ND would be worth it, but anyone else? I doubt it.
“* ACC: Status quo because it’s already a 15-member league (including Notre Dame as a semi-member) and because of its long grant-of-rights with ESPN. The only alternative I envision is Texas becoming “team 16,” incorporating the Longhorn Network into ESPN’s ACC network, with UT playing several full-time ACC members in football as an ND-style independent.”
I just don’t see UT playing all their sports on the east coast, not do I see them dropping LHN until Disney kills it. If the B12 collapsed (say OU and KU left) UT might consider going independent and then trading a few ACC games for bowl access but that’s as far as I can see them going east.
“* Big Ten: Adding Kansas and Oklahoma, thus sending Purdue to football’s East Division. This of course assumes KU and OU can politically divorce themselves from K-State and Okie State.”
This is the catch-22. I think OU and KU could escape their little brothers if the B12 was collapsing, but it would only collapse if UT left. And UT doesn’t want to leave unless OU and KU are already leaving.
“* Big 12: The league will survive for the simple reason that the members not named Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas have nowhere else to go. It will replenish with several members from the American, as few as two and as many as five. The leading candidates for addition: Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Central Florida, South Florida. The new Big 12 will be slightly below the other four major all-sports conferences, but significantly ahead of the next tier (American, Mountain West, Conference USA, etc.)”
They might take a MWC school or two in that scenario as well.
“* Pac: Geography and academics limit its options (no Boise State or Brigham Young), and the option of adding Oklahoma and Texas schools has probably sailed for good. But two candidates are lurking below the radar — Nevada and UNLV. The Silver State is growing rapidly (just as Arizona did in the 1970s), and we know the Pac is interested in Las Vegas as sites for its basketball tournaments and football title game. The question is whether both schools have progressed academically to satisfy the fussy Pac presidents. By 2025, they may have.”
UN and UNLV are weak schools. They are closer to being Boise State than Washington State.
“* SEC: Several schools (notably West Virginia) may be interested, but is the SEC similarly attracted? Probably not, unless Oklahoma could be lured, and the Sooners have eyes on the B1G. It almost certainly will maintain the status quo.”
They have the same target list as the B10 essentially. With ACC schools off the table, ther are also unlikely to expand.
I think this may be a waiting game until the 2030s before any significant changes happen. That will be long enough for the B12, P12 and ACC schools to assess their financial futures in their current conferences. If the ACCN struggles, then maybe come ACC members choose not to extend the GoR. The current LHN deal will end so we have to see if Disney extends it. The B12 might form a B12N and sign a GoR if the LHN goes away. If the P12 struggles, you might see some members consider joining the B12 instead.
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Interesting how UConn has fallen out of expansion calculations. A year or two ago, UConn was supposedly a hot property for the B12, or the ACC, or even the B1G. None of that made sense to me, but it was the case. Now the Huskies are not even in the conversation. Football at UConn is dead and mens bball is very mediocre. There is no particular reason to believe either will make a huge turnaround. Womens bball can’t carry a P5 hopeful.
Old story, Connecticut is not a big market and UConn does not bring the rest of New England or NYC.
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Reminds me of how the Big 12 was originally formed. Step 1: “What if we all work together?” Step 2: “What if we only take the best parts?”
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It is also reminiscent of the B10/P12 alliance that never came to fruition.
The idea of playing all 3 OOC games against the other P5 conference has zero chance of happening. Too many schools in both conferences have OOC rivalries or want to play a variety of teams. Teams also want to play a cupcake every year. A more moderate proposal of playing 8-10 OOC games against each other every season (reduce USC and Stanford participation for their ND games) is more workable.
The concept of their champions playing at the end of the regular season would require a major rules change. Would either side want to risk playoff elimination every year by playing that game?
I’d be interested to see them try a final week flex schedule of OOC games. Use the conference standings to pair teams with 2 P12 teams playing each other instead (or playing 2 more OOC games). That promises you no back to back repeat games in the CCG plus builds the resumes of the top teams.
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https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/john_canzano/2019/02/canzano-pac-12-conference-invites-probing-questions-but-offers-few-answers.html
Equity experts weigh in on the P12’s plan to potentially sell a 10% stake of their collective rights.
Endeavour Capital is exactly the kind of private-equity firm that the Pac-12 should be interested in partnering with. Its offices — Los Angeles, Portland, Denver and Seattle — sit in the conference footprint. And Endeavor Capital understands the challenges in funding higher education, having been an equity partner in the lucrative transition Grand Canyon University made from non-profit to for-profit more than a decade ago.
John von Schlegell co-founded the firm. He doesn’t blame the conference for exploring private investment, but also, von Schlegell said before the Pac-12 gets a nickel from a sophisticated investment firm, conference headquarters should expect a deep drill into their world.
“It will be a proctological exam,” von Schlegell said. “’Trust me’… is not going to work.”
Scott is on his third Pac-12 Network president. He’s cycled through three Chief Financial Officers in the last 19 months, and Scott has employed a couple of Chief Operating Officers during his tenure.
Anyone asked to invest $500 million — or even $50 million — will have questions about the conference’s executive-level turnover. Especially given that those employees were highly compensated vs. peers in their industry.
…
An outside audit of the conference financials might be entertaining to us and helpful to an investor. But, problematic for conference leadership.
…
“Their time-frame fits private equity,” von Schlegell said. “Private equity fits for a three, four, five, six-year window. There’s digital-media upside that would yield value creation that private equity would need… but my first thought when I heard about their plan was that it was weird, but probably worth exploring.
“The market will tell him if he’s crazy.”
…
von Schlegell is smart and shrewd. He has two degrees, including an M.B.A. from Stanford Graduate School of Business. He’s a rancher, and the co-founder of a successful equity firm. He sits as a board member on about a dozen entities, including the Oregon State Board of Higher Education before it was disbanded in favor of a trustee system.
…
I emailed the conference headquarters to ask whether an external audit of finances had been ordered by the CEO Group. Andrew Walker, the Pac-12′s vice president of public affairs and head of communications, responded with a statement he said I could attribute to the Pac-12 Conference.
It read: “The Pac-12 Board annually approves the operating budgets of the Conference and Networks. They also regularly benchmark expenses against peer group conferences and networks as part of sound fiscal hygiene. No outside auditor has been engaged to support this regular review process.”
…
Two sources familiar with “conference policy” on internal auditing told me that the annual internal Pac-12 audit of finances isn’t an extensive probe. Rather, it’s a cursory check to make sure the numbers add up.
The Pac-12 operation is ripe for a comprehensive examination. And the conference is inviting one by opening the door for a private-equity firm.
Said one high-ranking Pac-12 employee with knowledge of the expense and salary structure: “If you asked me to do some quick math, and you told me we needed to find $10 million a year in savings, it would take me three minutes.”
…
Here’s another economic viewpoint. David M. Carter, an associate professor at USC, works as a consultant in strategic marketing in the sports and entertainment world. He’s consulted for the NHL’s Anaheim Ducks, the City of Los Angeles, the Rose Bowl, and was an expert witness in the lawsuit pitting Oakland Alameda County Coliseum Authority v. Golden State Warriors.
“It certainly feels like a cash-advance of sorts that the presidents and chancellors and ADs really want because they can’t afford to lose pace,” Carter said. “It may have just been Larry Scott raising this up the flagpole to see what kind of debate, development or business opportunity he could get.
“($500 million for 10 percent) is a dreamy valuation. But the value is what someone believes they can do with it.”
…
Said Carter: “Running an international media company is not a core competency of the conference. You want that institutional knowledge. That’s where securing the proverbial smart money comes in.”
As in, the Pac-12′s wisest move would be to partner with (and give up control to) an existing media company. That’s a proposition Scott has balked at whenever it’s brought up.
…
One high-ranking Pac-12 official told me this week that when the Pac-12 Network was formed, Scott approached ESPN, FOX, CBS and Discovery looking for a potential partner.
“Nobody on the outside knows this,” the official said. “We weren’t wanted.”
…
Potential partners will ask tough questions and cut costs. That’s what companies do when they’re looking to turn a profit and maximize value. Also, they’ll want to be more than a silent (10 percent) partner. They’ll want control. And that’s how a proposal of $500 million for 10 percent dwindles into a counter-offer of significantly less in cash in exchange for 51 percent control.
Private-equity money isn’t cheap.
A sophisticated firm won’t let public-records laws get in the way of a dig into the financials. It will want a favorable valuation. It will ask for an industry-standard 11-15 percent return on a $500 million investment.
…
If nothing changes, David M. Carter at USC thinks the Power Five Conferences could eventually split into two factions — big-time and small-time.
“Even though you have this great geographic conference (in the Pac-12). You can win all the championships you want but if you’re not competitive in football and basketball it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy that you attract only Olympic-caliber sport athletes.
“It’s difficult to monetize that.”
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https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2019/02/canzano-mark-cuban-weighs-in-on-the-pac-12s-hail-mary-funding-issue.html
Mark Cuban was asked about the P12 concept of selling a 10% stake in their rights.
Cuban, the 60-year old Dallas Mavericks’ owner, entrepreneur, investor and “Shark Tank” co-host, shot some quick thoughts my way. I asked him if the offering was intriguing or ridiculous. Also, if the conference’s valuation made sense to him.
Cuban shot back: “Intrigued, yes.”
Cuban also offered: “What they would value at, I don’t know. But Disney selling all the Fox Sports regionals will help determine the value.”
…
Because of antitrust laws Disney is required to sell off 22 Fox Regional Sports Networks as part of the asset transfer between the two media giants. The company sent out the bid book on the sale of the RSNs in October. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of this year.
Guggenheim Securities analysts, per a report, valued the networks at a combined $22.4 billion last year. But the networks include major media markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Dallas.
…
Disney has had a difficult time finding a suitor willing to take the networks in a wholesale transaction. It may have to sell them off in pieces, which may ultimately drive the overall value down.
…
Also, keep an eye toward China.
Insiders at the Pac-12 Conference tell me that Scott has spent a few years cultivating a close relationship with Alibaba Group Executive Chairman Jack Ma. The Pac-12 has played volleyball, soccer and men’s basketball games in China. …
But also, Alibaba Group has emerged as an interesting potential partner for the Pac-12.
…
Still, the $5 billion valuation on the network sounds absurd.
And would a partner really be satisfied with only 10 percent stake?
I called up Adam Lewis, a reporter who covers the private-equity world for PitchBook.
“They would take a 10 percent stake, but for a much lower number, I’d think,” Lewis said. “I’ve been covering every private-equity deal that goes through the wire. I haven’t seen really anything comparable to that in terms of anyone giving them an immediate $500 million investment with little to no control over what a network that has proved to be incompetent through the first part of its history.
“If you’re going to fork over that kind of capital and put your investor’s money at risk, you would be crazy not to want some sort of control over what’s going on.”
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“Guggenheim Securities analysts, per a report, valued the networks at a combined $22.4 billion last year. But the networks include major media markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Dallas.”
“Still, the $5 billion valuation on the network sounds absurd.
And would a partner really be satisfied with only 10 percent stake?”
So let me get this straight the Disney networks are valued at $22.4 billion and Scott thinks the value of the P12 is $50 billion????????
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No, Scott thinks the P12N is worth $5B. They are floating the idea of selling a 10% stake for $500M.
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My bad. I got the numbers confused. I thought the $5B number was 10% not the total. Thanks.
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https://floridastate.rivals.com/news/tv-industry-analyst-acc-network-will-be-bigger-success-than-expected
John Ourand says that the ACCN will outperform predictions, at least initially.
On a podcast posted Thursday by sports media reporter Richard Deitsch of The Athletic, Ourand was asked for an update on the network and its expected launch on Aug. 22, 2019. And Ourand actually sounded bullish on the network’s chances, citing deals that ESPN’s parent company, Disney, has orchestrated with cable providers Verizon Fios and Altice.
“If you had asked me this one year ago, I would have said it’s doomed for failure,” Ourand said on the podcast, which can be found on iTunes and other podcast providers. “But one year on, they have deals with Altice in New York, which is hardly an ACC hotbed. They have a deal with Verizon, which is a national deal. …
“It’s not going to be the start that SEC Network was, where everybody had to have it when it launched. But it’s going to be pretty successful when it launches. You can already see the road map for that.”
…
“The first time that they have like a Clemson football game on there that people can’t see, then you’ll start to see that ramp up, too,” he said. “I was very bearish on them about a year ago … I’ve now turned 180 degrees on what my prognosis of what the ACC Network was going to be.”
What isn’t yet known is how much actual revenue will be generated by the network. The Big Ten Network and SEC Network have both been extremely successful and drive millions of dollars to each member school each year, while the Pac-12 Network has been panned as a financial dud.
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Jon Wilner gave his own version of a B12/P12 scheduling alliance in his newsletter.
The basics of my plan:
• The math is a bit tricky, because one conference has 12 teams and the other has 10. Roughly speaking, each Pac-12 team could play a Big 12 team twice in a three-year span — not the same team, mind you — while each Big 12 team would play a Pac-12 team four times in five years.
• The matchups would change every year, but teams would be guaranteed a home game in seasons their conference rivalry game is on the road.
When Bedlam is in Norman, for example, Oklahoma State would play its Pac-12 opponent at home.
When the Civil War is in Eugene, Oregon would play its Big 12 opponent on the road.
• For optimum flexibility with matchups — and to allow teams to fill out in the rest of their non-conference dates years in advance — an partnership would require dates to be blocked out ahead:
Four teams in each conference would be told to block out Week Two in the 2024 season, for example, and four would block out Week Three in 2024.
• Each spring, after rosters and expectations are established, the matchups would be set from the groups of four teams that have the same week blocked off.
Exceptions would be made:
Stanford and USC would be guaranteed a home game against their Big 12 opponent in the years they play Notre Dame on the road.
Teams involved in neutral-site matchups on Labor Day weekend — those are booked years in advance — would be guaranteed home games against their Big 12/Pac-12 opponent in Week Three, so as to allow for a cupcake in Week Two.
• The partnership would feature quadruple-headers each season in Week Two and Week Three, with the Big 12 hosting the first and third games and the Pac-12 hosting the second and fourth.
Sample schedule (all times Pacific)
Week Two
9 a.m.: Arizona State at West Virginia
12:30 p.m.: Kansas State at Utah
4 p.m.: UCLA at Texas Tech
7:30 p.m.: Oklahoma at Oregon
Week Three
9 a.m.: Washington State at Oklahoma State
12:30 p.m.: Iowa State at Washington
4 p.m.: Stanford at Texas
7:30 p.m.: TCU at USC
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https://bigten.org/sports/2019/3/4/GEN_0304194629.aspx
Jim Delany will retire when his current contract ends in June 2020. He is willing to leave earlier if the presidents find a replacement and have him/her up to speed in time.
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Frank,
Care to comment on your potential new mascot, Alma Otter?
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https://watchstadium.com/news/college-football-bowl-game-changes-to-begin-in-2020-03-05-2019/
The bowl lineups will change in 2020. Here are the changes in the works that impact the B10:
The Las Vegas Bowl
In 2020, the Las Vegas Bowl moves from UNLV’s Sam Boyd Stadium to the new Las Vegas NFL stadium. In the course of the six-year deal, the SEC and Big Ten will each make three appearances against the Pac-12 in the Las Vegas Bowl. It’s expected to be either the third or fourth Pac-12 team after the Rose and Alamo Bowls are filled. It’s unknown what selection the SEC and Big Ten would send from their respective conference.
This will mark the first Pac-12 and SEC non-playoff bowl matchup since the 1989 Freedom Bowl. The Pac-12 currently plays bowl games against each of the Power 5 conferences except for the SEC. The two conferences have played in only nine non-College Football Playoff/New Year’s 6 bowls.
The Belk Bowl
The Charlotte-based bowl will rotate an SEC or Big Ten team, based on which league is in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Charlotte Bowl annually will feature an ACC team between 2020-25 against either an SEC or Big Ten team, with each league making three appearances. If an SEC team is in Las Vegas, a Big Ten team will be in Charlotte, and vice versa.
…
The Holiday Bowl
With the Big Ten playing in Las Vegas and Belk, the Big Ten will not be affiliated with the Holiday Bowl after 2019 and will be replaced by the ACC. The San Diego-based bowl will feature the Pac-12 against the ACC from 2020-25.
The Gator Bowl
Starting in 2020, the Jacksonville-based bowl will feature an ACC vs. SEC matchup each season.
The Music City Bowl
Starting in 2020, the Nashville-based bowl will feature an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup each season.
The Outback Bowl
The Tampa-based bowl will still feature an SEC vs. Big Ten matchup, as it has since 1995. However, starting in 2020, when a Big Ten team earns a berth to the Orange Bowl, an ACC team will take the Big Ten’s place in the Outback Bowl. This arrangement previously was with the Citrus Bowl.
…
Starting with the new bowl cycle in 2020, here are the guaranteed minimum bowl tie-ins per conference (not including any teams that appear in the College Football Playoff):
ACC, SEC – 11
Big Ten – 9
Pac-12 – 8
Big 12 – 7
Normalized bowl slots:
ACC, SEC – 79%
B12 – 70%
P12 – 67%
B10 – 64%
It’s pretty crappy for the B10 to be 2 bowls behind the ACC and SEC. I know it’s based on the number of bowl eligible teams in previous years but with 2 conferences playing just 8 conference games, this is screwing 3 of the P5 leagues. The B10 has had 4 5-7 teams over the past 2 seasons. That’s probably 3 more bowl eligible teams if the B10 played only 8 games. Add in scheduling I-AA cupcakes and the process gets very slanted towards the ACC and SEC. It’s not the only factor, but it is a factor.
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https://www.gazettetimes.com/sports/beavers-sports/swimming/osu-swimming-oregon-state-to-drop-swimming/article_8e047da3-cdc6-5343-8820-b1830c221b87.html
I’ll use my old email again until Frank approves my new identity.
A reminder of why P12 finances matter. OrSU is cutting women’s swimming because they can’t afford a new or upgraded facility.
Barnes said the decision to discontinue swimming is based upon Oregon State’s commitment to offer all student-athletes a quality, equitable and competitive NCAA experience in keeping with the athletics department’s strategic plan; provide quality and equitable facilities for all teams; and balance financial requirements for athletics facilities.
“This decision followed a comprehensive review of all sports,” Barnes said. “Facility requirements contributed to this decision as we realize that OSU campus pool facilities do not meet NCAA standards.”
OSU women’s swim team holds home meets at the city-owned Osborn Aquatics Center.
“It is cost prohibitive to renovate existing campus swimming facilities,” Barnes said. “A new swimming and diving facility would cost about $20 million to build, not including the cost of annual maintenance. Investing in competitive swimming program facilities would negatively impact the ability to serve facility requirements for all sports and all OSU student-athletes.”
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26172472/sources-lsu-coach-wiretap-discussing-offer
Uh oh Alan. I think you’re going to need a new hoops coach.
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Brian – as an alum, fan, season ticket holder, and lawyer, I would urge that everyone not rush to judgment until all the facts are out there. That being said, it doesn’t look good for my Tigers or Will Wade.
Here’s the local angle: https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_a0a5b100-412c-11e9-a01f-334214707654.html
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I’m not jumping on the “LSU must fire him now” bandwagon just yet, but it will take a hell of an explanation to keep it that way. Being caught on tape discussing offers is hard to defend.
It’s not like LSU’s coach is the only one caught up in this either. More and more coaches will be linked to this. I think hoops needs to expose all this before they can begin to fix the system. And when competing in a dirty field, it’s hard to get too angry with any one coach for participating.
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Will Wade is suspended. https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_04538804-41d6-11e9-a1b4-973c0af1c806.html
Brian – I’m with you. College basketball needs to adopt the college baseball rule, ie you can sign a pro contract out of high school, but if you go to college you stay for three years. Hopefully, the changes to the G-League (more money to the players) will allow kids that could care less about college a place to play and make money, while college kids can play college basketball rather than all the one-and-dones.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26192669/lsu-suspends-wade-indefinitely-amid-fbi-probe
LSU has suspended the coach indefinitely.
“Recent media reports regarding Coach Will Wade are without question concerning to us all,” read a statement from LSU president/chancellor F. King Alexander and athletic director Joe Alleva. “As such, we and university officials have taken deliberate and purposeful steps to fairly assess and adequately address the situation. As we have done since media reports first surfaced months ago, we are closely coordinating with the NCAA with every step. They have our full cooperation and we will continue to report to them all facts and information on this matter.
“All of us at LSU share the obligation to protect the integrity of this institution, as such we have suspended Head Coach Will Wade indefinitely until such time as we can ensure full compliance with the NCAA, as well as institutional policies and standards. Assistant coach Tony Benford will assume the duties of interim coach.”
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Interview with Tulane Sports Law professor Gabe Feldman regarding the LSU/Will Wade situation. He also touches on the Alston case.
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_2d0ff8c4-44db-11e9-9849-3f91626ae1db.html
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It’s a little surprising that he is only suspended for refusing to discuss the issue with his bosses at LSU. If he could truthfully deny the allegations, there wouldn’t be any reason not to talk with them. I’d think that refusal might also constitute cause for dismissal.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26262626/lsu-wade-says-allowed-coach
And now Wade wants his suspension to end.
“Last week, when the University decided to place me on administrative leave, I accepted the decision without complaint as I knew that they wanted time to reflect on the flurry of media reports,” Wade said in a statement. “With the benefit of a week to consider the circumstances, I believe University officials should allow me to resume my duties.”
…
“Coach Will Wade has yet to deny any wrongdoing to us or publicly,” Thomas Skinner said. “Absent that, the university is in a very difficult position with regard to compliance with NCAA requirements, and until Coach Wade talks to university administration about this, he remains suspended. There is a standing offer for him and his attorneys to meet with LSU officials.”
…
“In this case, the simple truth is I have been placed on leave because I exercised my right not to submit to a joint LSU/NCAA interview on the exact same subject matter at issue in an impending federal criminal trial in New York,” Wade said in the statement. “My legal counsel advised the University that it would be wholly inappropriate for me, or anyone, to submit to an interview under these circumstances.”
As if LSU or the NCAA is going to find anything the FBI doesn’t. The fact the Wade has never denied the allegations speaks volumes.
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Things at LSU might not be as bad as they appear. Javonta Smart cleared to play in the SEC Tournament by the NCAA and LSU.
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/sports/lsu/article_958b528a-4374-11e9-a1af-ab7c133232d1.html
If the player that was the subject of conversation on the wire tap is cleared, maybe Will Wade will eventually be cleared as well.
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For your sake I hope so, but I doubt it. The player being in the clear just means he and his family didn’t obviously get paid. Attempting and failing to buy a player, or paying off someone with no power to sway the player, is still a violation for the coach. If the investigation showed that nothing happened then the coach would be clear now as well.
I think the best case scenario for LSU is that the school isn’t in trouble, just the coach.
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https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2019/03/oregon-ad-rob-mullens-on-pac-12-falling-behind-financially-were-drifting-out-of-range.html
John Canzano had Oregon AD Rob Mullens on a podcast. The link is for the article he wrote about their conversation, and the article has a link to the full podcast.
On how disappointed he is with the Pac-12 Conference revenue distribution:
“You have to flash back. Yes, it’s not what we want, that’s for sure. But we did make great progress in this deal. In the old Pac-12 TV deals we were basically on regional TV and our resources were way behind. When this new deal was done it closed the gap both in visibility and in resources, but the gap has widened again. We have to figure out how to close that gap. Resources do matter. We don’t have to have everything that everyone else has but we have to remain in a range that makes us competitive. And right now, we’re drifting out of range.”
…
On whether the Pac-12 football title game should be in Las Vegas too:
“I haven’t made a decision on where I stand on that yet. I want to see that football game elevated… I do like that the fact that there are some options.”
If Oregon is worried about falling behind, think how the poor schools feel.
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From the thezman.com, 3/9/19:
“…former Baylor football player Shawn Oakman was acquitted of second-degree felony sexual assault by a Texas jury. He was one of three players charged in the sexual assault panic that gripped Baylor University in 2016. That scandal resulted in mass firings, including the president of the university, Ken Starr. A law firm was hired to investigate the claims and their super-secret report led the board to purge the university of just about anyone connected to the football program.
Despite the rumors and over-heated press accounts, there was never much in the way of details to assess. In addition to Oakman, two other players were charged with crimes related to the panic. One player, Tevin Elliot, was sent away for twenty years, while the other player, Sam Ukwuachu, got 180 days for sexual assault.”
Zman connects this incident to mass hysterias of the past, like the child abduction/sacrifice scare of the 1970’s (the source of Janet Reno’s fame). That is unwarranted in my mind, Baylor had a real, not fictitious scandal, but it is striking that only two players were convicted of anything. The scandal also ate up an enormous amount of space on this blog. Certainly, there was a serious problem at Baylor, given that several people in responsible positions covered it up. I have no sympathy for the likes of Ken Starr, however, it seems now that the condemnation of the whole University was unwarranted.
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Does it seem unwarranted? Sexual crimes are notoriously hard to prosecute, especially when the question of consent is at issue. For every 1000 rapes, only 5 people get convicted according to RAINN (https://www.rainn.org/statistics/criminal-justice-system). Baylor had a large number of complaints, coaches and administrators covering things up, and a fan/alumni base that was more worried about the coach than the victims.
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I wrote “the whole University.” Starr and others got what they deserved. It seems you want to punish the students and faculty, too.
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You did write that, but it isn’t clear to me what you are talking about. Who condemned the whole university as opposed to using “Baylor” to mean the powers that be at Baylor who were directly responsible for this?
Do I want to punish the former students and faculty? Yes and no. To the extent that the university and the students created the environment that allowed this to happen, they are partially to blame and should accept that responsibility. They wanted to win so much that they turned a blind eye to the cost, just like the entire SWC with all their football cheating in the 80s.
Beyond that, who has been punishing the students or faculty (or advocating for such)? Do the students not find jobs when they graduate? Are the careers of the faculty members stifled in some way? The university’s reputation is deservedly tarnished, but even that will fade in time. Otherwise only a handful of people have suffered any negative outcomes besides the victims.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/03/08/ncaa-antitrust-lawsuit-claudia-wilken-alston-jenkins
The NCAA sort of won and sort of lost another court case about scholarship values. The link goes to 1 of 3 articles SI’s legal analyst wrote about the decision.
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“NCAA attorneys warned Judge Wilken that linking permissible payments to the imprecise term “educational expenses” could open a Pandora’s Box for college corruption.”
Oh no corruption in college sports, say it ain’t so Joe!
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
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As someone asked, is buying a car for a player that lives off campus an educational expense since he drives it to campus? And if so, is a second or third car also OK? At some point you are just paying them in easily salable things rather than directly in cash.
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Direct TV to carry the ACCN.
https://awfulannouncing.com/league-networks/directv-will-carry-acc-network-when-it-launches-in-august-a-win-for-both-espn-and-the-acc.html
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26240641/college-admissions-scandal-fake-athletes-alleged-bribes-aunt-becky
This college admissions scandal is pretty vast. I’m not surprised that rich parents would pay to get their kids into a good school by any means necessary, but I’m a little disappointed that so many college coaches were willing to take bribes and waste scholarships on bad athletes. I’m not surprised that exam proctors took bribes to let a 36 year old take the entrance exams for people. How did other students not complain, though? He must have stuck out like a sore thumb.
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26243901/bios-coaches-implicated-college-bribery-scandal
A list of coaches implicated so far:
Rudy Meredith, former Yale women’s soccer coach … He is a three-time Northeast Regional Coach of the Year and led the Bulldogs to the NCAA College Cup in 2002, 2004 and 2005 — when the team captured its first outright Ivy League title in school history. …
Ali Khosroshahin, former USC women’s soccer coach: Khosroshahin, 49, coached at USC for seven seasons (2007-13), guiding the women’s soccer team to a national championship in his first year, and to the NCAA tournament four times. … He was fired as USC’s head coach in 2013 after his teams went under .500 for three straight seasons.
Jovan Vavic, USC water polo coach: … Most recently he served as head coach for both the men’s and women’s water polo teams, leading both to national championships in the same year four times (1998-99, 2003-04, 2009-10 and 2012-13). Overall, he amassed 16 national titles (10 men’s, six women’s) and is a 13-time national coach of the year. …
Gordie Ernst, former Georgetown/current Rhode Island tennis coach: … While at Georgetown, he led the men’s squad to the Big East semifinals in 2017, the program’s best finish in more than 25 years. He took the women’s program from last place to its first national ranking, and to its first defeat of a nationally ranked opponent in 2013. …
Donna Heinel, USC senior associate athletic director: …
William Ferguson, Wake Forest volleyball coach: … He worked previously as head volleyball coach at the University of Southern California from 2005 to 2015. During those years, the Trojans were 150-102 and qualified for three NCAA Final Four tournaments and finished as runners-up in 2009 and 2012. Ferguson was the American Volleyball Coaches Association National Coach of the Year in both seasons.
John Vandemoer, Stanford sailing coach: Vandemoer was fired in the wake of the scandal and his guilty plea on one count of conspiracy to commit racketeering. The Stanford sailing team had been dominant in the past decade under him, including nine first-place finishes in the Pacific Coast Collegiate Sailing Championships and top-10 finishes nationally in the Intercollegiate Sailing Association in each of the past 10 years. …
Michael Center, Texas men’s tennis coach: … The Longhorns have been among the nation’s top tennis teams in Center’s 18 seasons, compiling a record of 365-137 and qualifying for the NCAA championship match each year, including Final Four appearances in 2006, 2008 and 2009. Their highest final national ranking was No. 3 in 2006. Center, 54, was named the U.S. Professional Tennis Association national college coach of the year in 2007. He has been the Big 12 coach of the year five times.
Jorge Salcedo, UCLA men’s soccer coach: Salcedo, 46, is on administrative leave in the wake of the allegations. He is a soccer icon at UCLA, where he was a four-year starter and helped win three national championships in the 1990s. … In his first 14 seasons, the Bruins were 172-80-42, including six conference titles and 13 NCAA tournament berths. UCLA advanced to the title game in 2006 and 2014. Since 2004, Salcedo’s teams have produced 38 Major League Soccer draft picks, including 19 first-rounders. …
Why would such successful coaches take this sort of risk?
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith/2019/03/12/the-most-valuable-college-basketball-teams/
Forbes released their most valuable MBB programs list.
1. UL
2. UK
3. IU
4. Duke
5. KU
6. OSU – one of these teams is not like the others
7. Syracuse
8. AZ
9. IL
10. WI
12. MSU
13. UMD
15. MI
They also breakdown the average revenue of the top 20 by source:
1. TV (includes NCAA & conference distributions) – 33.7%
2. Tickets – 29.5%
3. Donors – 21.6%
4. Sponsors – 10.0%
5. Other – 5.2%
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The B10’s annual domination of the NCAA wrestling tournament will begin March 21. The B10 got 78 autobids out of 285 with the 45 at-large spots announced today. The B10 got 11 of those as well for 89 total wrestlers. The brackets come out tomorrow.
Wrestlers by school:
OSU – 10 (only team in nation to get all 10)
IA, PSU – 9
MI, MN, NE – 8
PU – 7
IL, RU, WI – 6
NW – 5
IN, MSU – 3
UMD – 1
By weight (33 per class), top 10 seeds by InterMat:
125 – 10; #1, 4
133 – 8; #2, 3, 5, 6, 7
141 – 10; #2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 9
149 – 8; #1, 2, 9, 10
157 – 10; #1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
165 – 10; #1, 2, 5, 6, 7
174 – 10; #1, 2, 9, 10
184 – 9; #1, 2, 6, 7
197 – 5; #1, 2, 5, 10
285 – 9; #1, 2, 6, 7, 10
The B10 is all but guaranteed titles at 149 (RU or OSU), 157 (PSU), 165 (IA or PSU, 174 (PSU), 184 (OSU or PSU) and 197 (PSU) based on how good the top guys are though upsets or injuries can happen.
National tournament rankings (InterMat):
1. PSU – huge favorite to win the title yet again (would be 4 in a row and 8 in 9 years)
2. OSU
4. IA
5. MI
6. MN
9. NE
11. RU
12. NW
19. WI
24. IL
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https://bigten.org/news/2019/3/13/big-ten-wrestling-set-to-compete-at-ncaa-championships.aspx
The B10 claimed 7 of the 10 #1 seeds with 285 being the only weight class where they might have gotten #1 and didn’t (3 1-loss wrestlers were in the mix, 2 from the B10). The B10 has the #2 seed in each of those 3 weights it didn’t get #1, and 8 total #2 seeds. That’s 15 of the top 20 wrestlers in the nation.
The Big Ten is sending 89 wrestlers, including 57 top-15 seeded grapplers and seven No. 1 seeds, across the 10 weight classes.
…
Seven Big Ten wrestlers hold the top seed in their respective weight classes – Iowa’s Alex Marinelli (165), Northwestern’s Sebastian Rivera (125), Ohio State’s Myles Martin (184), Penn State’s Mark Hall (174), Bo Nickal (197) and Jason Nolf (157), and Rutgers’ Anthony Ashnault (149).
…
A Big Ten school has taken home the national championship in each of the last 12 years.
Brackets: https://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/images/2019/03/13/2019_ncaa_d1_brackets.pdf
ESPN will air the three prime-time sessions airing on ESPN, with the early sessions on ESPNU and every one of the 640 matches available on ESPN3 via the ESPN App.
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The PAC will here a report from a consulting firm on the PAC’s quest to find an equity partner for the PAC Networks. The top goal appears to be an actual strategic partner, though if the that could be hard since apparently the PAC is only looking to sell about 10% of the PAC Network. (For comparison, Fox owns half the Big Ten Network and ESPN owns the SEC, ACC and Longhorn Networks outright).
Other options would to look for a simple cash infusion (effectively a silent partner) to carry them until the next media rights deal or (in what I think would be an extreme long shot) having the universities themselves buy 10% of the conference’s media rights with the rest being own by an internal holding company.
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https://www.timeshighereducation.com/student/best-universities/graduate-employability-top-universities-united-states-ranked-employers
The Times higher Education list of most employable graduates is out.
In total, 56 US universities appear in the Global University Employability Ranking 2018, designed by HR consultancy Emerging and published exclusively by Times Higher Education. The ranking reveals which universities recruiters at top companies think are the best at preparing students for the workplace.
The top 10 includes many of the usual suspects – Harvard University, California Institute of Technology and Stanford University – but also New York University, which is not always found right at the top of university rankings.
Tuition fees at US colleges vary widely, particularly for international students, so value for money arguably depends both on tuition fees and how likely graduates are to be successful in their future career.
A number of state universities in the US, such as University of California, Berkeley, which generally have lower tuition fees, do particularly well when evaluated by employers.
B10 (US/World ranks):
17/57. OSU
27/115. NW
29/125. RU
30/126. PU
35t/150-200. IL, MI, PSU
46t/200-250. MSU, WI
I’m not giving this list much credence, but it’s rare to see an academic ranking of any sort that puts OSU atop the B10.
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Back in the 1970’s the OSU Board of Trustees (then a bunch of political hacks and used car salesmen) decided that OSU would abandon its open admissions tradition and become a selective admission school that emphasized faculty research. It took them over 30 years, the entire faculty of 1970 had to be replaced, but they did it. OSU is now a selective admissions research institute that regularly ranks in the top half to top fourth of the B1G. However, seeing them on top of the list surprises me, too. OSU undergrads are a pretty career-driven (not academic-driven) lot, and that might account for some of the high ranking. Aside form MSU, the other schools tend to attract academic types. Where are NE and MD?
The transition was a bloody affair with many ruined academic careers. I lived through it. I was one of those who had to go. As P&T Chair for a decade or so, I had a hand in the blood-letting. It got ugly at times.
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Not only did the P12 only get 3 NCAA bids (none above a 9 seed and one of them was solely due to the autobid), they only got 1 NIT invitation. That’s only 4 of 12 teams invited to either of the decent tournaments.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/03/20/ap-source-american-athletic-makes-12-year-tv-deal-with-espn/39229011/
Let’s see what happens now. The AAC signed a new 12-year deal with ESPN for less than $7M per school per year. How do UConn and any other P5 hopefuls respond?
The American Athletic Conference and ESPN have reached agreement on a new 12-year television contract that will increase revenue to the league’s schools but is far less than the money provided to their Power Five counterparts.
An official with knowledge of the negotiations says the conference will receive about $1 billion over the next dozen years and in exchange ESPN will get the rights to AAC games, many of which will be broadcast on ESPN-plus, the company’s a la carte digital platform.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the contracts have not been signed, said the deal will provide the conference with about $83.3 million per year, with each member school receiving an average of just under $7 million a year.
The agreement, first reported by Sports Business Journal Daily, runs from the 2020-21 academic year through 2031-32.
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https://www.si.com/tech-media/2019/03/19/apple-sports-surveillance-room-notifications-big-moments-recommendation-technology
Apple does not seem interested in live sports rights. It does seem interested in changing how sports are consumed, though.
It’s been 18 years since Apple disrupted music by extracting the song from the album. Now, it’s joined other companies separating moments from their games. The goal is to offer the curated convenience of highlights without sacrificing the thrill of live. Don’t miss another moment, the pitch goes, but don’t wait for one either.
…
Next week, Apple is expected announce its foray into the streaming business and its upcoming premium video service. The company has reportedly budgeted $1 billion for original content, including a deal with Kevin Durant’s production company for a basketball drama. But don’t expect the tech giant to venture into live broadcasts. Asked how much he’s thinking about competing against Facebook and Amazon (both of which have begun airing games) with exclusive rights, Apple senior vice president for Internet software and services Eddy Cue says, “Not a lot, honestly.”
“That’s not to say we would never do sports, because who the heck knows,” he said. “Never is a long time, but I don’t think that’s a problem right now.” Sports rights are deeply fragmented, with different owners split by platform and region. “You really can’t own all the rights, so therefore at some point you need to solve some other problems,” Cue said. “You can’t design for owning the rights because if that’s the only thing you’re doing you’re always going to be tiny.” And these days, Apple rarely does tiny.
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https://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp-usc-football-admissions-scandal-20190319-story.html
How could a fake preferred walk-on spot to USC’s football team become part of the admissions scandal without the football coaches knowing? By the way, 3 young men got into USC that way and they are the only “football players” involved in the scandal so far.
The alleged use of USC football’s coveted preferred walk-on slots to funnel in boys who weren’t football recruits is perhaps the best example of the ease with which former USC senior associate athletic director Donna Heinel was said to have manipulated the athletic admissions process to her own benefit.
…
The Los Angeles Times spoke Tuesday with two former USC football recruiting staff members who worked directly with Heinel to get real recruits admitted to the university. Both Eric Ziskin and Alex Rios said they had no knowledge of the alleged scheme but, based on their knowledge of USC’s protocols, saw exactly how it could have happened.
“She was definitely the gatekeeper and the liaison between athletics and admissions,” said Ziskin, a former USC assistant athletic director for recruiting and player personnel who left his high-ranking role in the football program two weeks ago. “She certainly had the ability to say, ‘Look, coach Helton really needs this guy.’ She could push a little harder for the kids she knew were a priority. Whether she presented some guys that were basically made up …”
…
“They do not follow up after Donna presents,” a corroborating witness told a parent in the complaint.
Said Rios, USC football’s former director of recruiting who left the program in September, “She held the power and she knew it. And who was going to check her?”
…
Rios said it is possible Heinel got fake athletes into USC over real ones who were on their list.
“I would say, if we sent 10 to 20 walk-ons a year, we always got maybe, I’m spitballing, three to 10 got denied,” Rios said. “You never knew who was going to get in and who wasn’t, and we never questioned it, because, hey, we did our work, it’s in her hands.”
I can understand most of this, but in the end I fail to see how coaches couldn’t notice that they didn’t have a full complement of preferred walk-ons. If some guys got turned down, wouldn’t they just propose more candidates?
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http://www.uscannenbergmedia.com/2019/03/19/interim-president-wanda-austin-says-swann-athletics-will-be-reviewed-by-board/
USC’s interim president says USC is doing a complete investigation around athletics after the admissions scandal.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2019/03/21/population-decline-us-cities-losing-most-residents/39199277/
This isn’t really news, but many midwestern cities are losing population.
According to recent Census data, nearly a fifth of all states reported a population decline in the last two years. In many metro areas, the population decline is especially pronounced and has been a long-term trend.
…
24/7 Wall St. reviewed the percentage change in the population of 382 U.S. metro areas between 2010 and 2017 to identify the fastest shrinking American cities. Over that period, 25 metro areas reported population declines of between 3 percent and 10 percent.
25 fastest shrinking metro areas:
1. Pine Bluff, AR -9.1%
2. Johnstown, PA -7.2%
3. Charlestown, WV -5.5%
4. Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
5. Beckley, WV -5.1%
6. Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH
7. Danville, IL
8. Wheeling, WV-OH
9. Decatur, IL
10. Cumberland, MD-WV
11. Flint, MI
12. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
13. Saginaw, MI -4.0%
14. Albany, GA
15. Elmira, NY
16. Pittsfield, MA
17. Ocean City, NJ
18. Rocky Mount, NC
19. Binghamton, NY
20. Kankakee, IL
21. Lawton, OK
22. Bay City, MI
23. Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville, AL
24. Rockford, IL
25. Lima, OH – 3.0%
IL – 4
MI, OH, WV – 3
NY – 2
AL, AR, AZ, GA, MA, MD, NC, NJ, OK, PA – 1
That’s 13 in the B10 footprint with 5 more very close (WV, NY).
I’d be curious to know which 8-9 states have lost population in the last 2 years.
From 2010 to 2017:
-2% or worse: WV
-1.99% to -0.1%: IL, VT
< +1%: MI, PA, MS, CT, RI, ME
Those were the 10 slowest growing or shrinking states from 2010-2017.
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https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-met-census-illinois-population-20181219-story.html
New York & Illinois are leaders in population loss.
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Thanks Doug.
From your article:
Illinois has declined in population for the fifth year in a row, losing an estimated 45,116 residents from 2017 to 2018, according to the latest Census Bureau data released Wednesday.
That was a greater drop than the previous year, when Illinois lost about 40,000 people — as well as its spot as the fifth-largest state in the nation to Pennsylvania.
…
“It was hard to leave,” she said. “I anticipated dying in Illinois. There are good opportunities, but I think those opportunities are dwindling.”
The Land of Lincoln remains the sixth-largest state, with a population estimated at 12,741,080, but there has been a decrease of more than 100,000 residents since 2013, when the population hit almost 12.9 million, the census figures show.
Ohio is next in the rankings at number seven, trailing by more than a million residents.
Illinois suffered the second-largest numeric loss of any state, following only New York, which was down 48,510 residents but has a much larger overall population of more than 19.5 million, according to the data. Other states that declined were West Virginia, Louisiana, Hawaii, Mississippi, Alaska, Connecticut and Wyoming.
No other states in the Midwest had losses.
Ohio is coming for you, Illinois. It’s good to hear that no other midwestern state is shrinking. Maybe global warming will eventually slow the migration to the south and west.
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The B10 wrestling dominance is off to a good start.
Scores after day 1:
1. PSU – 32.5
2. OSU – 25.5
3. IA – 24.0
4t. MN – 20.0
7. MI
8t. NE
16. RU
23t. NW
23t. PU
23t. WI
Quarterfinals are ongoing with the semifinals tonight on ESPN.
RU just got their first ever 4x ALL-American, so congrats to them.
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And the PSU rout is on, though a few teams can still challenge them. It’s a 3 team race for the title though PSU has a leg up based on the number of #1 seeds they have.
After the afternoon session:
1. PSU – 80 (max possible 189.5)
2. OSU – 66.5 (183)
3. OkSU – 56 (155)
4. IA – 43.5 (190.5)
5. MI – 40 (128.5)
7. MN (164)
8. RU
11. NE
18. WI
20. NW
23. PU
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The B10 has 21 of the 40 semifinalists with at least 1 in each weight class.
3 of 4 – 133, 157
2 of 4 – 125, 141*, 149, 165, 174*, 197, 285*
1 of 4 – 184
* – 2 B10 guys face each other so we are guaranteed a finalist
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http://intermatwrestle.com/articles/21739
Team standings:
1. PSU
2. OSU
3. OkSU
4. IA
5. MI
8. MN
9. RU – tough to have your best sport finish top 10 but not top 5 in conference
10. NE
21. WI
22. NW
26. IL
27. UMD – fired their coach after going winless in B10 dual meets
29. PU
33. MSU
Individual titles:
PSU – 3
RU – 2 (first ever individual national champions)
IA, ASU, Cornell, UNI, VT – 1
B10 results:
7 of top 10 teams
6 of 10 champions
12 of 20 finalists
38 of 80 All-Americans (top 8 finish in each wt class)
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Daily/Issues/2019/03/21/Colleges/Pac-12.aspx
News on the P12’s hunt for a strategic investor. According to SBJ, they are actually asking for a $750M investment in their proposed rights-holding company. Jon Wilner wrote about it in his newsletter.
“The Pac-12’s attempt to attract investors is unprecedented in college athletics and represents a bold step by Commissioner Larry Scott to create more revenue for the schools,” Ourand and Smith wrote. “The conference is facing considerable headwinds given the underperformance of the networks combined with the lack of on-field success.”
…
Key details from the SBJ, if you missed the news:
• Minimum investment: $100 million.
• The commitment for investors is 25 years, and no rate of return was offered in the bid book.
• The conference would plow $50 million into the holding company (dubbed ‘NewCo’) and send the other $700 million to the schools.
If you’re curious, an influx of that size would result in a $58 million distribution to each campus. Over 25 years, that breaks down to $2.3 million per school per year.
We don’t know how the payouts would be structured (lump sum or over time). Nor do we know the percentage of ownership the conference is willing to sell. The documents unearthed by the Oregonian’s John Canzano in December cited 10 percent ownership in exchange for $500 million investment.
For $750 million, you’d expect the ownership stake to be greater.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/bigten/2019/03/22/ncaa-tournament-big-ten-dominating-first-round/3247445002/
I better hurry and post this before OSU plays.
The conference is flexing through the first day-plus of the tournament. After No. 10 Iowa’s 79-72 win against No. 7 Cincinnati in the South Region — the Hawkeyes trailed by as many as 12 points in the first half before storming back — the Big Ten is now 6-0 altogether with two teams still to play in the first round.
…
Entering this year, the Big Ten ranked third among leagues since 1985 in inter-conference tournament games, according to the NCAA, with a 60.3 winning percentage. Ahead of the the Big Ten are the ACC (66.5 percent) and the SEC (61.8 percent).
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/2019-02-28/how-every-conference-has-fared-march-madness-1985
Here are more details behind those W% numbers. These are the only conferences to be 0.500 or better in the tourney since 1985 (not including this year).
Conference Wins Losses Percentage
ACC 318-162 66.25%
Big East 286-177 61.77%
Big Ten 278-181 60.57%
SEC 231-151 60.47%
Big 12 159-117 57.61%
Big 8 67-49 57.76%
Pac-12 26-24 52.00%
Pac-10 141-107 56.85%
Note that in total games, the B10 is way ahead of the SEC (and the W% numbers don’t match up). Having UK play a big share of the games should up the SEC’s record.
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ESPN offered to partner on Pac-12 Networks and help bolster distribution. Pac-12 rejected.
https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2019/03/25/Colleges/Pac12.aspx
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“The conference’s board of presidents and chancellors turned down what sources…”
Looks like their presidents and chancellors are still supporting the maintaining control of their own network, inspite of Wilner and other scribes assertions that the 75% turnover of CEO’s since Scott was hired was likely to result in a change of strategy, and even commish.
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It’s about to become 83% turnover as OrSU’s president will retire at the end of the year.
Whether new presidents will change direction or not, they are inherently more objective about Scott and the status quo.
As for turning down the offer, it does not necessarily endorse Scott or the current path as the best choice. It could be matter of feeling committed to it at this point and deciding that they are better off hoping it works than changing paths now. I don’t know if Scott is the lifer commish type like Delany or Slive. He may not even want to stay around another 10 years.
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https://awfulannouncing.com/local-networks/pac-12-reportedly-turned-down-an-offer-from-espn-to-distribute-pac-12-networks-in-exchange-for-rights-extension.html
A non-paywalled article about it.
With schools not nearly getting as much revenue as they expected from the networks, commissioner Larry Scott was looking to sell a 10 percent stake in the conference for $500 million to private investors. Even though a former hedge fund manager said that “probably wasn’t going to happen,” the Pac-12 decided to bump up their figure to $750 million with a 25 year commitment. Despite that, the Pac-12 is betting on themselves and showed that by turning down the biggest sports network in the country.
As reported by Sports Business Journal’s John Ourand and Michael Smith, the Pac-12 turned down an offer from ESPN to distribute their networks in exchange for an extension of their rights agreement that would have given ESPN the Pac-12’s rights “well into the 2030s”.
…
Extending with ESPN now would remove much of the uncertainty around the Pac-12 Networks and their distribution, but would also deprive the conference of a potentially larger payday in the future.
In addition, the Pac-12 didn’t want to cede complete control of the networks to ESPN, and that ESPN felt like their offer to the conference was a long shot.
The devil is, of course, in the details. What was ESPN willing to pay and what did they want in return?
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I’ve repeated many times (but have managed to lose the link to the original article): when the network was created money was not simply disregarded, but maximizing $s was not the primary focus. This was explicitly stated as the position of the CEOs. Sports fans, journalists, and ADs seemed to miss this. P12N is now able to help leverage the next T1 contract while remaining fully under PAC control.
As you say what would espn be offering? Would Fox want in on it too (they share current T1). It’d have to be a really good offer to want to tie themselves up for as long as ACC did. Only thing that intrigues me at all about the time frame is the LHN would be expiring at around the same time.
Responding to a different post: “It’s about to become 83% turnover as OrSU’s president will retire at the end of the year.”
I think it’s the end of the next academic year (‘19 – ‘20), but either way he’s gone before the next T1 negotiations.
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Ccrider55,
“when the network was created money was not simply disregarded, but maximizing $s was not the primary focus. This was explicitly stated as the position of the CEOs. Sports fans, journalists, and ADs seemed to miss this.”
I disagree a bit. It’s not that we are all unaware that the CEOs said/felt that. But it is easy to say that when someone is promising you a giant return and telling you how valuable the asset will be in the future. Since the reality of the actual P12N payouts came, several people have commented about how much lower they are than what Scott promised/hinted at. It’s one thing to accept earning $7M rather than $8M to keep full control. But earning $2M means that asset has to become extremely valuable to make it a wise decision.
What if the FAANG companies don’t compete for the P12 rights in the 2020s? And how much value is lost by lack of exposure? Exposure is one of the main reasons to have a network, and the P12 especially wanted exposure for Olympic sports. The current plan is a failure for exposure and that needs to be considered in this equation.
“P12N is now able to help leverage the next T1 contract while remaining fully under PAC control.”
So what? What evidence is there that P12 leverage is meaningful? They couldn’t force good carriage deals, to the point they screwed themselves out of DirecTV carriage. And why is full control automatically better than having Disney or Fox on your side in negotiations with carriers? If the P12N becomes highly valuable, then having 100% ownership is valuable. And if full control is so important to the P12, why are they shopping around a 10% stake in their rights? Nobody ever said the P12 had to sell 100% to a partner like the SEC did.
“As you say what would espn be offering? Would Fox want in on it too (they share current T1). It’d have to be a really good offer to want to tie themselves up for as long as ACC did. Only thing that intrigues me at all about the time frame is the LHN would be expiring at around the same time.”
Any long term deal like that is usual much better for the carrier than the conference. The only thing it offers is protection if the market slumps in the future.
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http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26356002/betting-favorites-made-history-round-32
The NCAA tourney made history for being predictable this weekend. For the first time since expanding to 64 teams, all 16 betting favorites won in the second round. Auburn was the #5 seed but was favored over #4 KU.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-can-look-to-kiss-to-win-fans-back-after-lowest-average-attendance-in-22-years/
CFB attendance was down again, now at its lowest since 1996.
The drop in football attendance is less of a story these days; the question is whether anything can be done about it. According to preliminary NCAA numbers produced last week, FBS college football attendance was down again — for the seventh time in the last eight seasons — to its lowest average mark in 22 years.
The average of 41,856 fans per game for the 129 FBS teams in 2018 was the lowest figure since 1996. That’s a year after the average per-school decline was the largest in 34 years.
Of the top 30 schools in 2017 attendance, 20 stayed the same or declined in 2018. Among that top 30, Virginia Tech had the fifth-largest decline, 3,700 fans per game in the 66,233-seat Lane Stadium, behind the likes of USC, Ohio State, South Carolina and Florida.
Even in a national championship season, Clemson was down (slightly — an average of 373 per game, according to the NCAA’s figures).
…
The ACC was the only Power Five conference whose average attendance increased in 2018.
The Pac-12, for example, posted its lowest average attendance since 1982. The average per-team decline of 3,013 was the largest among FBS conferences since 2014 when the AAC lost 4,519 per game.
The Big Ten sunk to its lowest average (65,365) since 1993. Conference USA and the Mountain West posted the lowest averages in their history.
For the fifth consecutive year, the majority of the 10 FBS conferences were down in attendance (7 of 10 in 2018). Compare that to 9 years ago when only the then-Pac-10 declined from 2009-10.
…
But despite the addition of seven FBS programs since 2013, overall national attendance has declined more than 1,427,000 since an all-time high of 38,135,118 fans 5 years ago.
Notes on OSU’s drop:
1. OSU removed roughly 2600 seats as part of renovations (they added some a few years ago so Ohio Stadium capacity is about the same now as in 2014).
2. The B10 home schedule was weak except for The Game. RU in week 2, then IN, MN and NE in October through early November. RU drew just 93,057 (13,500 fewer than MI drew) and MN only 100,042.
3. The OOC schedule stunk with OrSU and Tulane as the home games.
2019 has a terrible OOC schedule as well but MSU, WI and PSU are home games so hopefully things improve a little.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/03/27/american-touts-espn-deal-as-similar-to-conference-network/39263857/
The AAC commish claims that ESPN-plus is like a branded conference network for them.
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Brian – I think the bigger news is $7 million per school and more coverage on the TV networks.
“The American and ESPN announced Wednesday a 12-year agreement that runs through the 2031-32 school year.
Financial terms were not disclosed, but previous media reports put the total value of the deal at $1 billion, paying each school about $7 million per year. AAC and ESPN’s previous six-year deal, which expires in 2020, allowed the league to distribute about $2 million per year to the school.
The deal calls for at least 40 football games per season airing on ESPN’s linear TV networks, 14 more than in the previous contract. At least 20 of those games will be on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2, which is also an increase. In addition, the new deal gives ESPN the rights to Navy’s semi-annual home game with Notre Dame.
ESPN cable networks will air at least 65 regular-season men’s basketball games and at least 13 regular-season women’s basketball games per season from the American.”
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Alan,
I didn’t comment on that part because I posted a link a little while ago about it. It is a big jump for them but still well behind the P5. I don’t know if it presages what the market will be like for others or is unique to the AAC as their football viewership may have exceeded ESPN’s expectations for the old deal.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/highschool/2019/03/26/betsy-devos-funding-cuts-special-olympics-warranted/39260497/
In order to avoid politics I won’t comment much about this, but Betsy DeVos just defended the next proposed budget that includes cutting $17.6M in funding for the Special Olympics as part of an overall 10% in Dept. of Education funding while raising the funding for charter schools by $60M.
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President Trump reinstated funding for Special Olympics.
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A: He withdrew his request to not fund special Olympics. Congress appropriates funds.
B: Did he restore the autism funding his request had zeroed out? Again, my expectation is it will be included in legislation.
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Yes, he flip-flopped on his decision to cut all Special Olympics funding in his budget request after everyone excoriated him for it. Why he thought it was a good idea in the first place is a different question.
The other part of that article is the overall 10% cut in funding for education. Combined with your note about the endowment tax, this could be yet another blow to higher education. Of course we all know that what a president requests and what Congress actually passes are 2 very different things, but it seemed relevant since we discuss the intersection of sports, finances and education.
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Well, the New York state legislature has just cut funding for Special Olympics. But when the Democrats do something stupid it’s OK.
At least someone on Trump’s staff told him how stupid it was, and he had the good sense to change him mind. What possessed DeVos is unknown.
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https://13wham.com/news/state/ny-state-reverses-funding-cut-to-special-olympics-04-02-2019
A few differences:
1. I can only respond to news that I see or hear. I don’t get much coverage of NY state budgets.
2. NY passed a budget partially cutting SO funding by $50k. The feds proposed cutting all DOE funding while adding more to charter schools and running a $1T deficit overall.
3. Apparently the NY cut was not intended and nobody noticed it in the bill.
Officials inadvertently cut $50,000 when putting together the state budget that passed on Monday. Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s administration reallocated money from other programs to restore the lost funding when the cut was noticed.
If it was intended, it would be as stupid as the federal cut.
It wasn’t about the party that did it, it was about choosing that program to cut of all things. How could any national politician think that would be a good idea? It would be just as stupid if a Democratic president proposed it.
As for DeVos, I have yet to see anything that makes me believe she is competent to run the DoE. Her only background in education is advocating for charter schools and vouchers. I believe public education needs fixing but I don’t think she is up to the job. She has proposed cutting SO funding every year she has been in the job and it has never made it into the final budget. Maybe take a hint when even your own party refuses to consider the cut?
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One significant difference. And only one. President Trump did not cut it. NY Dems did. Your defense of them is pretty pathetic and not at all completely logical.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2019/03/28/college-endowment-universities-receive-most-gifts-funds/39230729/
Endowment rankings. The article also shows the growth rate since 2017.
College endowments are a complex assortment of gifts and funds that support universities and their various programs, including financial aid, research, and athletics. These funds, which are primarily made up of alumni donations, are invested for long-term growth. As colleges get older, their endowments grow larger – there are over 100 U.S. universities with endowments exceeding $1 billion.
…
24/7 Wall St. reviewed the market value of endowments of American universities and foundations, as provided by the National Association of College and University Business Officers, to determine America’s richest universities.
1. Harvard – $38.3B
2. U Texas system – $30.9B
3. Yale – $29.4B
4. Stanford – $26.5B
5. Princeton – $25.9B
6. MIT – $16.5B
7. Penn – $13.8B
8. TAMU system – $13.5B
9. UMI – $11.9B
10. NW – $11.1B
Other state schools:
11. Cal
19. UVA
23. OSU
27. PSU
28. Pitt
29. UMN
31. UNC – $3.4B
They stopped at 31 for some reason.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-08/colleges-get-tax-reprieve-in-push-to-value-endowment-assets
Reminder. The tax bill has a tax on endowments that are greater than 500k per student. There are about 30 private schools that will be impacted at first.
I seem to recall some kind of offset being discussed with financial aid, but couldn’t find it in any of the articles.
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If they don’t lawyer their way out of it, it’s a 1.4% tax on their investment gains since the end of 2017. If fully enforced it’s only expected to add up to $200M per year or an average of $7M per school per year.
As for the offset:
Another, sponsored by Tom Reed, a Republican from New York, waives the payment if schools spend a quarter of their annual earnings on middle-class tuition relief.
That’s from your link.
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OK, who had this final four on your bracket.
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https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/03/31/march-madness-brackets-final-four-picks-ncaa-tournament
Not a lot of people, but some. MSU and UVA weren’t huge surprises, and even TT isn’t a shock.
Correct Final Four brackets:
ESPN: < 0.05% (2.1% had MSU vs TT)
CBS: 0.02%
Congrats to MSU for finally officially tying OSU for most Final Fours by a B10 school. Of course OSU vacated one so really OSU still leads 11 to 10.
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And the Pac-10 gets left behind by the other P4s – who each have a team in the Final Four – once again.
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Is it better or worse for them that Gonzaga missed out as well? You have to think many western fans have tuned out after the only remaining western team lost, but having a local mid major do what the P12 hasn’t done much lately can’t be good either.
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Four of those FF’s were done by Fred Taylor teams. His teams went to the NCAA tournament five times, won it once. Lucas, Havlicek, Siegfreid…
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And Harold Olsen had 4 FFs before that from 4 tournament appearances. Granted, only 8 teams made it back then but still.
He began OSU’s sad tradition of FF failure.
FF – 11*
Runner up – 4
Champs – 1
* – 1 was vacated
Taylor had some truly great teams. All 5 starters from the 1969-60 team were eventually drafted by the NBA. Lucas was arguably the greatest college player ever. Havlicek became even better as a pro. It’s really a shame that they only won one title despite going 78-6 over 3 seasons. If Lucas didn’t get injured in the 1962 semifinal perhaps OSU gets a second title.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-basketball/2019/04/103449/looking-back-at-ohio-state-basketballs-11-trips-to-the-final-four
A timely article about OSU’s 11 Final Four trips.
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For the first time in a long time I didn’t do a bracket. I hadn’t been following it real close and it looked to me like there were about a dozen teams that could be a #1 seed.
Its really been a very predictable tournament. 14 top 4 seeds and a #5 in the sweet 16. We’ve got a #1 , 2 #3s and a really hot #5. All 4 of the elite 8 games could easily have gone the other way.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26423069/georgia-gets-series-florida-st-clemson
UGA is stepping up their OOC scheduling, adding another home and home with Clemson plus one with FSU. They aren’t long trips, but they are true road games and close enough that fans can travel.
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I-L-L….N-E-S-S!
http://fightingillini.com/news/2019/4/1/general-illinois-to-offer-public-beer-sales-at-many-athletics-events.aspx
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https://www.mercurynews.com/tag/pac-12-hotline-newsletter/
Jon Wilner has had a lot to say about the P12 rejecting ESPN’s offer to take over the P12N in his newsletter and columns. I’m going to combine quotes from various newsletters, so no individual links.
Adrift for years in deep water, the Pac-12 Networks had a lifeline: According to a report in the SportsBusiness Journal, no less a savior than ESPN swooped in last fall with an offer to take ownership of the networks. The proposal called for a lengthy contract (into the 2030s) but would have provided the networks with long-sought carriage on DirecTV.
And the Pac-12 said thanks … but no.
…
And they were right.
Tempting as the ESPN offer seems, it was the wrong move for the networks at this point in their life cycle.
…
My guess is that Scott and the CEOs concluded the windfall from Option 1 (whatever ESPN was willing to pay now for the struggling networks, plus the value of the Tier 1 rights in a few years) wouldn’t be as substantial as the windfall from Option 2 (everything available to the highest bidders, which could include the deep-pocketed digital media companies).
And they’re probably right. The value of live sports continues to grow, and the potential for multiple bids seems high.
…
Had the life line been offered five years ago, when it became clear a DirecTV deal wasn’t happening, the Pac-12 might have been wise to accept.
But ESPN waited … waited until the Pac-12 seemed desperate and vulnerable.
And now it’s too late to sell.
So he isn’t always anti-Scott and the P12.
In the past 48 hours, I’ve collected a bit more information on, and a better understanding of, ESPN’s offer. So this is part-flushing out, part-clarification, part-correction.
We don’t have the financial details of the proposal ESPN put forth last fall. In that regard, commentary on the topic (here or elsewhere) is guesswork.
We we do know is this:
• ESPN offered to take over of Pac-12 Networks distribution, which is the networks’ greatest hurdle but also not the same as taking actual ownership of the company. (My apologies for the conflation; I wasn’t precise enough in the explanation.)
• The Pac-12 Networks would have been on DirecTV.
• ESPN also offered, according to SportsBusiness Journal reporters John Ourand and Michael Smith, to extend “its rights fee agreement with the conference well into the 2030s.”
We’ll assume that means a long contract for distribution of the Pac-12 Networks and an extension of the Tier 1 broadcast rights — ESPN’s allotment of 22 premium football and select men’s basketball games, for which it’s currently paying $1.5 billion over 12 years.
…
(According to the existing term sheet, the Pac-12 is scheduled to receive $321 million from ESPN and Fox in 2023-24, the final year of the contract. I’m not sure the split is exactly 50-50, but if so, that would be $160.5 million from ESPN.)
Now that we have a better understanding of the scope of ESPN’s offer … the Hotline’s option doesn’t change one iota. Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott and the CEOs were correct to pass on the deal.
In fact, I’m even more convinced of that strategy when the Tier 1 rights extension is baked into the equation.
…
Given the rate of change in the media world and the ever-increasing demand for live sports, the Pac-12 is better off with its full content arsenal available a few years from now. Even if it means more pain in the interim.
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None of Wilner’s “newfound” respect for the pac’s current position required the offer from ESPN to be formed. The offer could be seen not just as an offer at a time of perceived vulnerability but as an attempt to get ahead of an increasingly strong potential pac negotiation position, which has been the Scott/CEO position all along.
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So even when he sides with Scott and the P12 he’s wrong? You’re hard to please.
I suppose you could view it that way, but would ESPN trying to get so far out in front of the negotiations? Usually these deals include an exclusive negotiation window that starts a couple of years (roughly) before the end of the deal. The current P12/ESPN deal runs until mid-2024.
We don’t know the details of what ESPN offered for sure, but extending the current deal for 10 more years is no sweetheart deal. Conferences generally have been making big leaps every time they sign a new deal. Offering no increase isn’t the way to impress someone so much they don’t test the market.
Some people keep claiming there will be this huge market for the P12’s rights in 2024 without offering any shred of evidence. None of the FAANG have made serious forays into live TV rights. They’ve dabbled in streaming but the NFL isn’t coming off of TV any time soon. Why would the P12 be where they start? Fox just streamlined itself, so it’s not clear how much they will be willing to spend. Otherwise it’s just the usual suspects (ESPN, maybe NBC or CBS).
The lack of fan interest in the P12 is also a sign that the future rights deal will be somewhat limited. If the fans don’t care enough to get P12N more broadly carried, that says something. And the numerical analysis just below this says it would take a megadeal for the P12 to recoup the money they’ve lost during this current deal.
So what is the evidence for saying the P12’s glass is more than half full?
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“So even when he sides with Scott and the P12 he’s wrong?“
Is a hypocrite would be the description. Although I obviously have an opinion as to the way Pac media rights should be handled, I very easily could be shown to be mistaken. But I don’t think I’ve tried be “right” by playing both sides of the discussion.
Wilner will be back criticizing Scott and the CEOs soon enough.
“Some people keep claiming there will be this huge market for the P12’s rights…”
Why say “huge”? I’d suggest a normal market for normal live college athletic content, skewed a bit lower due to all the oft cited reasons, plus the lack of USC relevance past the first month of FB season for over a decade.
“None of the FAANG have made serious forays into live TV rights.”
Not yet, but eventually. This is one of the reasons cited for taking a longer term view (perhaps two or more cycles even) before declaring a strategy successful or not.
There may be new players we haven’t seen yet: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-01-16/espn-s-ex-president-wants-to-build-the-netflix-of-sports
“If the fans don’t care enough to get P12N more broadly carried, that says something.”
Yes, it does. But it doesn’t say it’s not fulfilling a large part of its reason for creation in the first place.
“it would take a megadeal for the P12 to recoup the money they’ve lost during this current deal”
What money have they lost? They haven’t made as much as BTN or ESecPN, or what a number of ADs seem to have banked on. But they have made money, expanded exposure, enhanced recruiting, own a broadcast network, and have 100% of inventory available to market.
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ccrider55,
“Is a hypocrite would be the description.”
I don’t see anything hypocritical in his stance. He hasn’t changed his opinion of the original decision nor is he suddenly proclaiming Scott to be a genius or a great commissioner. Wilner is just admitting that the P12 is now so committed to their current strategy that reversing course would be a terrible business decision.
“Why say “huge”?”
Because the financial analysis I posted showed they would need to get a “huge” deal to recoup the money they lost by not taking a strategic partner from day 1. Their current willingness to sell a partial rights stake to a strategic partner shows there isn’t a philosophical objection to the idea.
“Not yet, but eventually.”
And we’ll all have flying cars eventually. It’s pure speculation.
“This is one of the reasons cited for taking a longer term view (perhaps two or more cycles even) before declaring a strategy successful or not.”
The net present value of those future deals is tiny.
“Yes, it does. But it doesn’t say it’s not fulfilling a large part of its reason for creation in the first place.”
Money was also a reason to create it and Scott predicted much better fiscal performance than they have gotten.
“What money have they lost?”
The money they could’ve made by taking a strategic partner from day 1 to enhance their carriage.
“But they have made money, expanded exposure, enhanced recruiting, own a broadcast network, and have 100% of inventory available to market.”
1. Not nearly as much money as they could have, and I’m not talking selling 100% or even 50%.
2. They also have limited their exposure gains. P12N announcers have noted they often can’t get P12N in restaurants, bars and hotels when they travel for games.
3. Enhanced recruiting in Olympic sports, sure. The P12 has done worse in MBB and CFB since starting the P12N.
4. They are getting a below market ROI on that investment in terms of money.
5. Having all the inventory is only valuable if people really want to buy it.
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“Wilner is just admitting that the P12 is now so committed to their current strategy…”
Which PAC has been since the formation decision.
“…Scott predicted much better fiscal performance than they have gotten.”
My recollection was at the time Scott (speaking for the CEOs)said the T1 deal was good enough they they could make the decision to forgoe guaranteed higher income for control and ownership. Money would be nice but I remember Scott trying to temper expectations.
“And we’ll all have flying cars eventually. It’s pure speculation.”
I watch more sports on phone and tablet than I ever would have anticipated. I bank and invest on line. We’re i 45 years younger I’d probably be taking much of my college class load on line. I agree/disagree with people on line that I “know” only through that medium. Is this trend going to stop at the live sports rights frontier?
“The net present value of those future deals is tiny.”
What is the value of not seeding even greater control of ncaa sports to E$PN? Or the present, or more importantly the future value of a network as opposed to a rights agreement with a commercial network with a channel naming agreement included?
“Scott predicted much better fiscal performance than they have gotten.”
See second response above. Plus, they missed on DTV, but unexpectedly got Dish. Once they got a several years in there has never been a viable option that wouldn’t cost about as much as DTV would bould bring at DTV’s demanded price. The possible 10ish% equity sale might be a way to increase immediate $ wishes, but even Wilner suggests it may be a long term burden.
We’re just a bit over halfway through this contract. Let’s let it play out and not attribute on field/court performance directly to a bit lower (but still obscene) amount of money thrown at coaches and vanity projects, even as lesser sports struggle. All of UT AD massive money hoard going to barely more programs than WSU didn’t seem to keep them from a decade of relative FB mediocrity.
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ccrider55,
“Which PAC has been since the formation decision.”
Fiscally committed, not emotionally. You reach a point where changing course is more expensive than sticking with a poor choice.
“My recollection was at the time Scott (speaking for the CEOs)said the T1 deal was good enough they they could make the decision to forgoe guaranteed higher income for control and ownership. Money would be nice but I remember Scott trying to temper expectations.”
The people in the room have said that Scott suggested much higher revenue numbers than they have realized.
“I watch more sports on phone and tablet than I ever would have anticipated. I bank and invest on line. We’re i 45 years younger I’d probably be taking much of my college class load on line. I agree/disagree with people on line that I “know” only through that medium. Is this trend going to stop at the live sports rights frontier?”
Apples and oranges. You’re comparing analog to digital changes. TV is already coming through a cable. The only question is who you pay for it, if anyone.
“What is the value of not seeding even greater control of ncaa sports to E$PN?”
You mean the control they gave ESPN/Fox over their most valuable games already? The P12N is unlikely to lead to any more issues than the T1 deal.
“Or the present, or more importantly the future value of a network as opposed to a rights agreement with a commercial network with a channel naming agreement included?”
Apparently not all that much since the P12 is looking for investors.
“See second response above. Plus, they missed on DTV, but unexpectedly got Dish.”
They lag all the other P5 networks by a huge margin.
“Once they got a several years in there has never been a viable option that wouldn’t cost about as much as DTV would bould bring at DTV’s demanded price.”
A strategic partner might have helped them avoid that problem.
“Let’s let it play out and not attribute on field/court performance directly to a bit lower (but still obscene) amount of money thrown at coaches and vanity projects, even as lesser sports struggle.”
I wasn’t the one who brought up recruiting, but team performance is relevant to that issue.
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“They lag all the other P5 networks by a huge margin.”
Is it likely teaming with a partner of the other networks is likely to draw them even? They are not the B1G or SEC. As a response in an article I referenced a couple months ago one of the media analysts suggested partnering woul likely place them in a permanently inferior position. E$PN isn’t likely to produce as much as for B1G/SEC due to the oft recited lower fan engagement, alumni numbers, etc.
The conferences themselves are apples and oranges, not simply the media contracts.
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ccrider55,
“Is it likely teaming with a partner of the other networks is likely to draw them even?”
Even? No. Closer? Yes. They’d certainly have broader carriage.
“As a response in an article I referenced a couple months ago one of the media analysts suggested partnering woul likely place them in a permanently inferior position.”
Which they already are in, thanks to geography and fan interest.
“E$PN isn’t likely to produce as much as for B1G/SEC due to the oft recited lower fan engagement, alumni numbers, etc.”
But they would’ve gotten the P12N carried on more systems.
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P12N boss Mark Shukin:
“When they first started (the Pac-12 Networks) with 850 events — and this is the question that keeps coming back, as referenced around economics and net profit — no one ever said doing 850 events would create the most profitable approach to it. It was about delivering the mission after having been paid by Fox and ESPN.
“And that’s OK. That’s exactly the mission around it. That’s part of the elevation of the brand.”
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And yet people in the room say Scott told them to expect much more money from the current model of the P12N than they are getting. It’s easy to say money doesn’t matter if you expect to have a lot of it. Opinions might change when you see that others have a whole lot more and you have less than expected.
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WSU and Colorado, and perhaps another (Berkeley?). I may be wrong but those are the only ones I recall being cited. They also have the highest need for increased revenue. A case of “hearing “ what you hoped to hear?
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https://athleticdirectoru.com/articles/pac-12-networks-strategicpartner/
Part 1 of a business analysis of the P12’s strategy of keeping 100% ownership in the P12N. Part 2 is due next week. The article has lots of images of tables that show him crunching the numbers.
Those controversies are dwarfed by a much larger one: does the Pac-12 have a questionable business model?
The question hinges, it seems, on a key strategic point: The Pac-12 in 2012 prioritized owning 100% of the conference’s media rights.
…
I’ve been frustrated by this debate, though, because I haven’t seen any good numbers on it. Do we really have to wait until 2025 to judge this strategy? The defenders of the Pac-12 hardly ever quantify the strategic decisions above. I have a saying on my website, one of my core beliefs, that, “Strategy is Numbers”. If you don’t run the numbers, you don’t actually have a strategy.
…
To be clear, I can’t actually answer the question definitively. I don’t have access to the financials of the Pac 12 beyond the broad strokes in the Form 990s filed to the IRS—and released 10 months late—so I have to make a lot of assumptions. But I can sketch out the terms of the debate in hopefully a more concrete way. This article will have two parts. Part I will explain some terms, and Part II will explain my estimates with final conclusions.
…
This is a chapter—or multiple chapters—in any financial text book, so I can’t explain it all in one article. But hopefully you come away with the idea that whenever you hear a strategy—especially with a big up-front investment—you think, “Oh, how much do we need to make to justify that?” So let’s start there.
…
But the decision we’re judging today was made right after that: to launch without a strategic partner.
…
But the network defenders insist those losses are temporary. At the end of 2024, the Pac-12 will have all their media rights, Tier 1, Tier 2 and Tier 3 rights, every game for every sport. The value of those rights will make up for any of the losses, or so the argument goes.
…
The Back of the Envelope Math
…
In this case, the first part of the equation could go like this: The Pac-12 hoped to earn about $5 to $6 million per school in Pac-12 Network revenue. It definitely isn’t—I’ll get to that—and the shortfall is something like $4 million per school. So assume they lost about four million per year per school.
Now let’s go to the 2025 and beyond period. Say the Pac-12 doubles the value of their media rights over the 12 years. That means $6 billion dollars. And since they’re looking to sell 10% of the conference’s media rights, let’s use that as a stand in for the rough percentage a partner would have owned going forward. In that case, the retained value of 100% of rights is $600 million.
Since $600 million is greater than $576 million, if the Pac-12 can generate $6 billion in media rights from 2025 and beyond, retaining 100% of all media rights was the right decision.
Oh, except for that pesky fact that a dollar in 2012 was worth more than a dollar in 2025 will be.
…
In 2012, the Pac-12 signed a $3 billion dollar deal with Fox and ESPN for their Tier 1 media rights, meaning the most valuable games in football and basketball, for a 12 year period. That deal escalated over time by about 5%.
…
Like I said a dollar is worth more today, so now we “discount” those future values.
…
Now that we know we should build an NPV model, and discount for the time value of money (and risk), we can re-ask our question: was the decision to launch a network without a strategic partner the right one in 2012?
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https://www.athleticdirectoru.com/articles/pac-12-strategicpartner-2012-mediarights/
Part 2.
He goes through all the steps, but I’ll just present his conclusion.
The Pac-12 Networks likely will miss out on somewhere between $276 to $869 million over the 12-year period from 2012 to 2024 by not joining with a strategic partner. That means that to justify this decision, the media rights deals signed in 2025 and beyond need to be worth something like $9 to $12 billion dollars, or three to four times the value of the current deal.
…
Conclusion – The Pac-12 Probably Should have Had a Strategic Partner in 2012
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https://apnews.com/d9c991f546bd4621a65a80832c97a14a
The AP looks at how the power conferences are pulling away financially from the mid majors in hoops based on tourney revenue units.
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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001025384/article/analyticsbased-mock-draft-quinnen-williams-to-cards-qbs-fall
A purely analytics-driven mock draft. Not only does the author evaluate each prospect, she also considers the current rosters and coaches. The model aims to maximize wins in 2019 only.
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Thanks, nice link, very interesting. I can only hope and pray that she is right, and that Haskins goes to my beloved Patriots.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26487056/big-12-expands-content-agreement-espn
Big 12 expands content agreement with ESPN.
The Big 12 Conference has signed a deal to expand its rights agreements with ESPN, which will now broadcast every Big 12 football championship game through the 2024 season and create a Big 12 platform on ESPN+, the company’s direct-to-consumer subscription sports-streaming service.
Texas will keep its rights on the ESPN-owned Longhorn Network. Oklahoma’s rights will remain with Fox Sports, as part of a previous deal. Both schools, however, will be featured on ESPN+ as road teams.
The ESPN+ agreement will start for Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma State beginning this year. Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech and West Virginia will join in 2020.
The deal runs through 2024-25, when the rest of the league’s TV rights contracts will expire.
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So they get a B12N-lite, like the AAC has. The real question is whether OU will join in when their current deal ends (assuming they’re still in the B12 then). This could be the seeds of the B12N, but it will wither if OU doesn’t join (and UT eventually).
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https://diverseeducation.com/article/143223/
State higher ed funding has only recovered halfway since the recession.
“Although state funding for higher education has only halfway recovered nationally on a per-student level, some states have fully restored appropriations to prior levels, while others have increased tuition to fully offset the reduction in state funding, and a number have not recovered at all,” she said.
The report also found that net tuition revenue or student share remained flat in fiscal 2018 for the first time since the 2008 Great Recession, but has increased by nearly 39 percent since before the financial crisis. This shows that the increasing reliance on net tuition as a revenue source could be leveling out — something that particularly surprised Laderman.
“…This is the lowest increase we’ve ever seen in tuition per student. And that’s explained rate by a number of different things; tuition rate increases were lower so it does seem like the increasing pressure on affordability is having an impact, but also international student enrollment has gone down a little bit and that adds to that figure,” she said.
Other key findings of the report include:
On average, states reserve nearly 6 percent of available revenues to higher education. Twenty states are within 1 percent of the U.S. average, and only seven states reserved a greater portion of revenue to higher education in 2016 than before the 2008 Great Recession.
In the last 25 years, student full-time equivalent enrollment increased from 8.2 million to 10.9 million, while educational appropriations per full-time equivalent enrollment declined by 4.2 percent, and net tuition revenue per full-time equivalent enrollment increased 85.6 percent in constant dollars.
Nationally, fewer students continued to enroll in higher education than during the peak recession years, but there was little year-to-year change from 2017-2018, which suggests further stabilization in the state higher ed landscape.
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Tiger might tie Jack’s record this year.
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http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26526364/lsu-reinstates-coach-wade-ncaa-meeting
LSU reinstated their hoops coach.
“Coach Wade met Friday with University and NCAA officials,” Alleva said in a statement. “During those meetings, he answered all questions and denied any wrongdoing in connection with recently reported allegations of irregularities in college basketball recruiting.
“The University regrets that Coach Wade did not choose to fulfill his obligations to LSU when he was first asked to do so. However, the seriousness of the allegations and Coach Wade’s prior refusal to refute them could not be ignored without exposing the University and basketball program to great risk. Protecting LSU and preserving our integrity must always be our first priority. Coach Wade’s explanations and clarifications offered during the meeting, absent actual evidence of misconduct, satisfy his contractual obligation to LSU.”
…
“I am humbled and grateful to be back at LSU,” Wade said in a release. “… I regret the circumstances that prevented me from meeting with the University sooner. I wish I could have addressed these issues when the University first requested a meeting, and I’m grateful they gave me the opportunity to do so last week. I completely understand that without my denying or explaining the media reports accusing me of wrongdoing LSU was left with no choice but to suspend me until I was willing and able to meet with them. Any other course of action would have put the program and the University at risk. I look forward to re-joining the team right away.”
Absence of evidence? Other than an audio recording of him talking about buying players, sure. We all know you can’t hold someone accountable for what they say.
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Why it makes sense for the top 100 football playing schools to break away from the NCAA
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/why-it-could-make-a-lot-of-financial-sense-for-the-top-100-teams-to-break-from-the-ncaa/
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I agree with the premise, however the number will only be 65 or less. I don’t for example think the AAC would add enough value for the top schools to want to include them. That number could be further decreased with the enhanced scholarships. Some schools may be unwilling or unable to pay the price it would take. Just for example how could Wake Forest ever compete with Ohio State. Also would the top schools want some of the lower schools with them?
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Sweet…
Let’s model our college athletic departments along the lines an insurance executive, who never finished his degree before chasing the almighty dollar, would suggest. Just remove all non revenue sports and become nfl or nba light, right Dodd?
Pffffttttt!!!
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You and I may not like the direction college football is heading but, unfortunately it’s the sad reality.
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A conference advertised as a group of twelve didn’t even add two to reach that number recently. This idea would be exponentially more convoluted. It is just Dennis Dodd click bait.
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They need the lower schools to enhance their won/lost records. There are no kings without princesses.
Anyway, such a realignment is impossible. The great majority of alumni value the history and traditions of the conferences, and they will never allow a realignment that eliminates the existing conferences.
If the Big 12 ever does collapse, which nowadays seems unlikely, the individual schools will end up in one of the now existing conferences, not all P5.
PS. I believe it is Delaney who opined that if college football became a true professional sport that many schools, including Notre Dame, Ohio State, and others, would drop it.
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I believe Delany said the Big 10 would consider dropping to D3. It was a classic laugh till you pee yourself statement. Can you imagine Ohio St, Michigan, Penn State, etc saying, “Sure Jim that’s a great idea. After all who needs 75 million?” Or a Judge saying sorry Athletes can’t give you a dime because the Big 10 would drop to D3. LOL
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It would be the schools telling the comish what they were doing and asking if the conference wanted to adopt the same or break up. I could see Northwestern, and possibly Wisconsin in that group. Definitely Stanford has said the same out west, and I’d bet on the UC system, too.
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I agree it’ll be 65 or less. Notice how the origination of this article comes from those with Pac-12 ties, the league that is struggling mightily financially.
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He starts from the faulty premise that the goal is necessarily to maximize revenue. B10 and SEC ADs are profitable. Do they necessarily want to help out the competition in the ACC, B12 and P12? Having a financial edge may be more valuable than having more money.
Then there’s the question of how many schools to bring along. You generally split the money equally in these sorts of deals. It’s one thing for B10 schools to prop up Purdue, it’s another to send money to SB schools. And how many could you bring along without dilution reducing the return? We all know that the kings could make a lot more all by themselves than they do in P5 conferences. And does anyone writing this big check really want Rutgers vs Indiana as an equal part of the deal?
To me the most likely deal would be if some entity paid for a CFB game of the week and got to pick from all the P5 conferences. The P5 split the money equally and the network/channel/whatever gets any game they want. That would add a little money to the pot without destroying the current setup. Beyond that I don’t think the P5 want to lose their branding that they currently get with their games of the week.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26546434/sources-woodward-replacing-alleva-lsu-ad
Alan, what are your thoughts on Alleva stepping down and Woodward taking over as LSU AD?
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Brian – Alleva was never embraced by the LSU community. Before coming to LSU, Alleva was the AD at Duke during the Lacrosse scandal. While he has done a good job upgrading facilities, fighting the crazy SEC rule against alcohol in general seating sections, and keeping the department in the black, he had a poor track record with coaching hires, the donor class never really liked him, and he was completely tone deaf with fan relations. His best hire was the Softball coach. In 11 years, we’re on our 3rd Men’s basketball coach (maybe 4th). The women’s coach is average and is paid $700k/year. Les Miles’ agent fleeced Alleva in 2012 (Michigan) and 2014 (Arkansas). I give him a pass on the botched Miles’ firing in 2015. Alleva did have Jimbo Fisher lined up and then-Gov Bobby Jindal stepped in a saved Miles’ job. When Alleva did fire Miles in 2016, he had a two month head start on the rest of college football. Then, he whiffs on Fisher, Tom Herman plays him, and with no backup plan, he hurriedly hires interim HC Ed Orgeron. Coach O may work out (and I hope he does) but it never should have come to that. The Will Wade suspension didn’t have much to do with alleva’s firing The LSU system is about to start a $1.5 billion campaign and Alleva can’t raise money.
I have known Scott Woodward since the late 80s when he worked for then-Gov Buddy Roemer. After Roemer was defeated, Scott became a lobbyist and lived across the street from me in the mid 90s. I haven’t really kept up with him, but spent some time with him a couple years ago at a fishing camp.
When LSU hired Mark Emmert in 2000, he happened to meet with Scott to learn the political lay of the land. Emmert was so impressed that he hired Scott as his governmental relations guy. Scott also served as Emmert’s liaison to the Athletic Department. During that time, he became friendly with Saban, Fisher, Muschamp, super agent Jimmy Sexton and many others.
When Emmert left LSU for Washington, Scott went with him. Then Emmert fired the Huskies’ AD and named Scott as the interim. Later, the interim tag was removed. Scott oversaw their massive stadium renovation and hired Chris Peterson away from Boise St after so many others whiffed.
Scott has always been very well-liked in Baton Rouge. He went to the big all boys catholic school and was a member of the biggest fraternity at LSU. Many of those classmates and fraternity brothers are now the movers and shakers around the state. He comes to LSU with a lot of political capital, should help with the capital campaign, and if he has to hire a new coach, the donor class will step up for him. We’ll never be as rich as the Aggies, but we do take our Tigers seriously. Having one of his best friends running the NCAA doesn’t hurt either. He’s a good guy and should do a great job.
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Sounds like a slam dunk for LSU. I knew Alleva was never super popular but only the people like you know how the LSU fan base, especially the donors, really feel. Having an AD who understands how to interact with the academics and the fans is huge.
It must be a little frustrating to have to compete with TAMU’s oil money and Saban’s obscene level of success.
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Jon Wilner recently covered two very different schools of thought relevant to the P12N.
First:
Interesting comments from Pac-12 Networks president Mark Shuken in the latest edition of the SportsBusiness Journal newsletter. Shuken reportedly said anyone critical of the networks for underperforming in revenue generation doesn’t “understand the objective.” Well, I know a few presidents and athletic directors who have been critical of the networks on the revenue front, and I know the networks haven’t even met the lowest financial projections. I like Shuken and believe he has taken several positive steps during his 18 months on the job. But I’m not sure about these comments, not sure at all. Had the ADs and CEOs known in 2011 what they know today, would they have been as enthusiastic about the 100 percent ownership model or the six regionals? No chance. Would they have been willing to say: We’re OK sacrificing revenue expectations for 12 years so long as the networks succeed in amplifying the “student athlete experience.” Again: No chance.
And the other:
https://sportsbybrooks.com/shooting-the-3-john-ourand-of-sportsbusiness-journal/
SbB Question #1:
Cash-rich Apple is launching a new streaming service that includes original programming. What is the chance that Apple will bolster that service by acquiring the broadcast rights to high-profile sporting events? To this point, what has prevented Apple and other tech goliaths like Amazon, Google and Facebook from aggressively pursuing such rights?
John Ourand:
I am skeptical that these digital companies will bid serious money during the next period of sports media negotiations. They may wind up with a small package here or there. But it seems unlikely that something like “Monday Night Football” or NHL playoff games will move exclusively to a digital company.
Apple and Netflix executives have been open about their lack of desire to bid on sports rights. Facebook pared back its MLB deal this year. Google has not been particularly active so far.
The wild card is Amazon, which already has an NFL deal, some interesting international deals and deep pockets.
My guess is that any digital company that really wants to be involved with sports will partner with a network to get it done.
Or, because these companies are big enough, they could simply buy an existing network.
Word is that Apple executives had talked internally about buying Disney a few years ago — talks that went nowhere. But such a deal would have given Apple ownership of ESPN and instantly made them a serious player in sports media.
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https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2019/04/canzano-pac-12-network-objective-is-to-make-you-take-your-eye-off-ball.html
John Canzano wrote a response to Shuken’s comment.
Pac-12 Networks head Mark Shuken also issued an internal missive last month. According to staff, Shuken addressed a report that the Pac-12 paid for a downtown-San Francisco apartment for him that often sat empty. Also, he explained the necessity for his conference-financed charter plane travel to and from his home in southern California.
More damage control.
Leadership knows it has an awful morale problem in the conference headquarters to go along with its money problems. But conference leadership jumped the damage-control shark this week when it announced that critics don’t understand the mission.
…
Shuken said in an interview with the Sports Business Journal that those who are taking the conference to task for the revenue aspect, “don’t understand the objective.” He told the reporter that the aim of the networks is to “amplify student athletes and their experiences.” Profitability isn’t the goal, basically. And he pointed out that the lack of distribution, particularly the absence on DirecTV, “doesn’t define the strength of the network.”
…
Yet, none of us should be surprised at the strategy of the conference. It contracted with a high-profile crisis-management firm last year, and one of the objectives laid out in a 34-page communications manual playbook involved an intentional strategy to “engage third-party voices” to help “shift the conversation.”
That’s what Shuken is attempting here.
The problem is the conference has thin credibility with the public. While saying profitability isn’t the goal, it’s simultaneously seeking $750 million in private-equity investment to address the shortage of revenue created by the failing network. So what we have is the conference’s left hand reaching for a pile of money while its right hand is telling us it’s not about money.
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Isn’t Shuken saying the same thing I’ve been saying has been the controlling strategy since P12N’s inception? And again he’s confused about who controls the conference. Scott has taken a number of potential altering of direction choices to the CEOs, and they made the call.
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https://www.insidehighered.com/admissions/article/2019/04/15/new-revelations-link-donations-and-admissions-ucla
UCLA has known for at least 5 years about parents paying for student admissions in their AD.
One of the statements said that donations can’t influence the admissions process. “As a public institution, UCLA and all other campuses in the University of California system admit students solely based on the merits of their achievements. UCLA does not consider parents’ or relatives’ history of donations to the university in the admission process,” said the statement.
A report in the Los Angeles Times Friday evening, however, said that in 2014 UCLA was aware of instances in which the parents of athletes made donations to UCLA’s athletics department in return for the admission of their children.
…
At UCLA, the Times reported, the parents of a high school senior who ran track made a donation to assure her admission. She was not considered a fast enough runner to make the UCLA team but was admitted as a recruited athlete after the parents agreed to donate $100,000 to the athletics department.
The Times based its report on a 2014 investigation by UCLA of possible links between donations and admissions decisions.
The report found that the timing of the donation, “together with the revelation that she was intended to be only a manager, in violation of the department recruitment and admission policy, removes any reasonable doubt that the contribution from the parents was obtained quid pro quo for the daughter’s admission.”
In a statement released to Inside Higher Ed late Saturday, UCLA largely confirmed the report on this student. According to the statement, “The [UCLA investigation] concluded that two coaches were directly responsible for policy violations, but found no wrongdoing by the student or her family. She was allowed to remain enrolled and the family ultimately completed the terms of the pledge.” A development staff member’s “involvement was determined to be only transactional, but exposed the need for improved policies and training,” the statement said.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26588088/key-figure-hoops-trial-details-football-payments
One of the figures in the hoops scandal is now naming names in CFB. Uh oh.
Former financial adviser Marty Blazer said that from 2000 to 2013-14, he made payments to college football players in order to secure them as clients when they turned pro and needed the services of a financial adviser.
Blazer said he made payments to players at Pittsburgh, Michigan, Notre Dame, Northwestern, North Carolina, Alabama and Penn State, where he said he gave $10,000 to the family of a player who would wind up the 11th pick in the 2009 NFL draft.
That description matches Penn State linebacker Aaron Maybin, who was drafted by the Buffalo Bills. Blazer said a Penn State assistant coach, whose son then played in the NFL, arranged the deal, which was actually a loan that would end up being paid back. Former Penn State assistant coach Larry Johnson’s son Larry played for the Kansas City Chiefs at the time; the elder Johnson is currently an assistant coach at Ohio State.
Larry Johnson Sr. told Yahoo Sports on Tuesday that Blazer’s accusations are “not accurate at all.”
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https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/pac-12-networks-project-drop-in-revenue.html
Jon Wilner got some financial numbers on the P12N.
[begin excerpt from Wilner’s piece]
Internal budget projections for the Pac-12 Networks obtained by the Hotline (below) show a six percent ($8.1 million) year-over-year decline in total revenue, a 22 percent drop in net advertising revenue and a 30 percent plunge in digital revenue. Net affiliate revenue, the largest bucket, by far, was expected to drop by five percent.
Perhaps most significantly, the Pac-12 Networks aren’t expected to increase the amount they distribute to the campuses: The $33.475 million projected for the schools in the current fiscal year — split 12 ways, that’s $2.8 million per campus — was the same amount pegged for FY18.
All in all, the networks were budgeted to generate $127.4 million in revenue against $92.5 million in total operating expenses in FY19.
[end excerpt from Wilner’s piece]
…
Of course, the Pac-12 is in a different situation than some of its peers when it comes to conference network ownership. The Pac-12 owns and operates its conference networks, … But there isn’t a large case that the Pac-12 Networks are all that valuable at the moment, adding credence to the outside investment analysts who are skeptical about the equity terms being offered.
And a further examination of the network revenue models isn’t exactly reassuring. Wilner has their advertising revenue ($13.6 million) as 10 percent of their total revenue, which suggests that a lot of their programming (especially in less-prominent sports) isn’t being watched by many. And their distribution (and thus, their per-subscriber revenue) doesn’t exactly look promising, especially following the U-verse move to drop them.
Oh, and the $2.8 million per school is still below the low mark on the low end ($3 to $5 million per year) commissioner Larry Scott estimated in a presentation ahead of the networks’ 2012 launch; the network has never reached a $3 million figure, much less the $7-$10 million per school per year predicted as a high-end estimate.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26598606/no-talks-expand-cfp-spring-meetings
No changes to the CFP at the spring meeting.
ACC commissioner John Swofford said there have been discussions over the past several months about the protocol the commissioners designed for the 13 committee members to use, but that the CFP is “in a good place there as well.”
While the current system is subjective, the protocol requires the committee members to “place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree.”
Selection committee chair Rob Mullens, also Oregon’s athletic director, was in the meeting to answer any questions.
“The discussion was really about how the selection committee was using that protocol, and if it was consistent with what was intended when the protocols were put together, and if there needed to be any clarification there,” Swofford said. “It was a good, healthy discussion, but it didn’t require any real significant change in the protocol. There’s always some room for individual interpretation of the committee members as to how the protocols are used. It’s the same with the NCAA basketball committee. I think we all understand that and accept it as part of the process.”
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Round 1 NFL draft picks by year.
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And with 2 selections, OSU is now tied with USC for the most total 1st round picks with 81.
Let’s hope it’s not another 24 years before the next B10 QB is taken in the 1st round.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2019-nfl-draft-picks-by-college-team-school-sec-again-dominates-first-round-selections/
2019 NFL Draft by conference
SEC — 9
ACC — 7
Big Ten — 7
Big 12 — 3
Pac-12 — 3
Independent — 1
AAC — 1
FCS – 1
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John Havlicek has passed away, age 79. Only teammates Russell and Jones won more NBA titles.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/2019-nfl-draft-by-conference-team-sec-dominates-sets-record-with-64-players-selected/
Draft analysis from the CFB POV:
Picks by conference:
SEC: 64 (most ever)
Big Ten: 40
Pac-12: 33
ACC: 28
Big 12: 26
AAC: 11
Mountain West: 10
MAC: 9
Independent: 8
FCS: 7
C-USA: 6
Division II: 5
1st round by conference:
SEC: 9
Big Ten: 7
ACC: 7
Big 12: 3
Pac-12: 3
Other: 3
Picks by school:
Alabama: 10
Ohio State: 9
Oklahoma: 8
Washington: 8
Georgia: 7
Texas A&M: 7
Auburn: 6
Clemson: 6
Notre Dame: 6
Ole Miss: 6
Penn State: 6
Michigan: 5
Iowa: 4
Maryland: 4
Wisconsin: 4
Michigan State: 2
Rutgers: 2
Illinois: 1
Indiana: 1
Minnesota: 1
Northwestern: 1
Nebraska: 0
Purdue: 0
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26629222/success-failures-college-conferences-teams-year-nfl-draft
Nebraska failed to have a player drafted for the first time in the common-draft era, according to research by ESPN Stats & Information research.
Entering the draft, Nebraska was one of five schools along with USC, Michigan, Michigan State and Florida to have a player drafted every year. Virginia Tech also failed to have a player drafted, after having at least one player taken every year since 1993.
Other Power 5 schools without a selection include Tennessee, Purdue, Kansas, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Oregon State and Cal.
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https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2019/04/oregon-state-only-power-5-school-without-a-player-picked-in-nfl-draft-or-sign-an-undrafted-free-agent-deal.html
As a followup, OrSU is the only P5 school that had 0 players drafted and 0 players signed as undrafted free agents. The next lowest total was 4 players (both Cal and Arizona).
This made 2 straight drafts with 0 OrSU players taken. Some former players who transferred were drafted or invited to minicamp.
At least Nebraska did better than OrSU despite having nobody drafted for the first time since 1962.
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How does Gary Anderson create that, and then become associate head coach at Utah.
On the positive side, I believe UTx didn’t have anyone drafted but did win the Sugar Bowl.
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He won at USU and WI and has experience as a HC. Sure he failed at OrSU, but so does almost everyone else. Most schools can’t get a former HC to be an assistant, plus he wouldn’t be in charge of recruiting as an assistant.
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Associate HEAD coach, right after bailing mid season? Just seems very…odd.
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It is a little odd, but football has a long history of hiring retread coaches for no obvious reason. There may be a behind the scenes explanation for his early exit from OrSU that satisfied Utah. Maybe OrSU told them they wanted him out.
I don’t put much stock in his title. That’s just a trick to let them pay him a certain amount.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/04/30/fenway-park-bowl-game-2020-red-sox-acc-aac
Just what we need, another cold weather bowl game. Fenway Park will host a bowl game in 2020 with an ACC vs AAC matchup.
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Rene Baumgartner strikes again…
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
· 5h
Have spoken with two sources close to the #WCC who indicated the league informed folks they were voting YES on the proposal. Yet, Santa Clara’s Renee Baumgartner voted ‘NO’ for the legislation during the D1 Council Meeting.
She was associate AD at UOr when they bounced Moos to hire Kilkenny in order for Phil Knight to get his Knight arena built. Her husband had supposedly told s student teacher/wrestler he’d better hope his wife is never in charge ‘cause wrestling would be gone .
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https://d1baseball.com/analysis/vote-tally-for-failed-third-coach-legislation-revealed/
Some context for those (like me) that had no idea what you were referencing.
The NCAA recently had a vote on allowing a 3rd paid assistant for DI baseball and softball. It failed 36-25-3. There were several surprise votes (AAC, BE, WCC), not just the one ccrider55 mentioned. There was a also a clear regional split with few northern or northeastern conferences voting yes. Both the B10 and B12 voted no. All the votes are listed in the article if you are curious.
As expected, there are a few surprises to report:
• The American Athletic Conference coaches and some administrators were under the impression the league was an obvious ‘YES’ for the proposal when I spoke with several sources two weeks ago. However, the league voted ‘NO’ at the D1 Council meeting with Cincinnati’s Maggie McKinley casting the deciding vote. Losing the American was tough considering it was worth two votes.
• The Big East Conference and West Coast Conference were both thought to be ‘YES’ votes. Several coaches and administrators out of the WCC considered the league to be an absolute ‘YES’, while the Big East seemed to be in the boat as well. The WCC’s vote was cast by Santa Clara athletic director Renee Baumgartner.
• The Big Ten, as expected, voted ‘NO’ on the proposal, but what’s interesting is the league actually had eight votes against the legislation. Big Ten commissioner Jim Delaney also had four votes as ‘FBS Autonomy Commissioner’, along with the league’s four votes, all for ‘NO’. Losing the Big Ten on this proposal clearly was a killer for the legislation, especially with leagues around the Big Ten like the Mid-American Conference and Ohio Valley Conference following suit with ‘NO’ votes. It’s worth mentioning the Missouri Valley and Horizon Leagues were both ‘YES’ votes.
• In a bit of a surprise, some Southern conferences also voted against the proposal, namely the Ohio Valley Conference, Southern Conference, Big South Conference, MEAC and SWAC. I was told by a good source last week the MEAC and SWAC were going to be difficult to get ‘YES’ votes out of because of their financial situations, while the OVC, SoCon and Big South all going ‘NO’ is surprising. Losing the MAC and Big South is particularly disappointing for the American Baseball Coaches Association, which has strong ties to both conferences.
• As much we didn’t expect the Pac 12 to come through leading up to the vote, the league was all onboard with the third coach proposal. The Western Athletic Conference also voted yes, while the Big West, where baseball is the most important sport, voted ‘NO’, along with the WCC. The WCC vote is most perplexing, as we discussed above.
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“…were going to be difficult to get ‘YES’ votes out of because of their financial situations,”
The proposed change was to allow, not require a third paid position. No one was placed under any financial strain unless they chose to be.
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That’s true, but voting to give your competition an advantage is hard to expect. If the MEAC and SWAC know they can’t afford it, why would they want the teams they play and recruit against to have it? It is hard enough for them to compete as it is.
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While true, it’s hard to expect them to vote against their own interests. Why would they vote to give the teams the play and recruit against a clear advantage? It’s hard enough for them to compete as it is.
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I condensed four tweets. Perhaps this should get revisited like when the UCLA AD voted against the intention of the PAC on a FB mater a year or two ago?
Kendall Rogers
@KendallRogers
·
May 2
SCOOP: Touched base with the
@American_Conf
again today and the league will have no further comment on the surprise NO vote on the third coach proposal from Cincinnati’s Maggie McKinley.
·
May 2
I get the no comment stuff from the
@American_Conf
, but there’s a lot of trust lost here with admins and coaches in the league. Many admins/coaches were aware of legislation language and were told the league would vote ‘YES’. Yet, McKinley voted no on behalf of the league.
·
May 2
I think I would actually be OK with a NO or YES vote if a specific league was on the fence about legislation. But when your member schools have 8 votes in favor of the legislation, it’s hard to justify a NO vote, IMO. Anyway, weird times in the
·
May 2
At the end of the day, it continues to baffle me how these ADs (such as McKinley) “didn’t know the proposal didn’t add a fourth coach”. The proposal by the #SEC, which member institutions had since last September, never changed. If they didn’t know, it’s just sheer incompetence.
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I noted that more than 1 vote seemed to go against the consensus of the league so perhaps this voting system is a bigger problem that all conferences should be examining. What we don’t know is if the presidents overruled their ADs and the voter was told to vote against it. The same thing happened in the WCC and the AAC. What are the odds of 2 rogue voters? And why don’t conferences forbid rogue voting?
The AAC made a statement saying their policy allows the voter to go against the consensus based on the discussion at the meeting. This is what they said happened, as new info came out that led the UC AD to feel the proposal was not what they had voted on. The language of the proposal hasn’t changed since the fall, but who knows what was said in the meeting.
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26643817/big-12-coaches-discuss-adding-injury-report
B12 coaches are discussing implementation of a standardized injury report.
Big 12 coaches are discussing the implementation of a standardized conference-wide injury report, but they would prefer some type of national uniformity.
The Big 12 is among six FBS conferences holding spring meetings at the same resort hotel in Arizona this week. The American Football Coaches Association also met this week.
…
With legalized wagering spreading, the concern is injury information could become a commodity for gamblers looking to gain an advantage. An injury report ostensibly puts it all above board, though even in the NFL coaches can be less than forthright.
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http://intermatwrestle.com/articles/21865
Some positive sports news. Kansas became the 15th state to sanction girls’ wrestling. Also Augsburg (a D-III wrestling power) added a women’s wrestling program. It seems like only a matter of time before DI adds women’s wrestling as an option. It’s a cheap team to add for Title IX purposes, especially if you already have a men’s team.
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There was a proposal to add girls wrestling in Nebraska a month ago, but it failed to pass. I suspect it will happen though in the near future.
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How will they deal with trannies posing as girls? Transgenderism is poised to destroy women’s sports.
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Remember the destruction of the WTA by Renee Richards, who played as a woman from ‘77 into the early ‘80s? Wait, what?
(In Emily Litella’s voice)
Oh…never mind.
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I doubt that will be a major problem for HS wrestling. It’s only been an issue for a handful of athletes in all of sports over the past few years. Potentially the NCAA might end up with a testosterone limit (like the IAAF has and was just upheld in court) for their championship, but I doubt they would even bother to enforce it for the regular season. I don’t think the HS level wants to deal with blood tests. Perhaps they allow dominant female wrestlers to switch to the boys teams.
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“Perhaps they allow dominant female wrestlers to switch to the boys teams.”
They’ve already been crying about that (girls competing with boys) for decades.
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I know, I just don’t know what other option is realistic for HS. They can’t afford blood testing. Either they let a few outliers dominate in girls wrestling or they move those few over to boys competition. There are arguments to be made either way.
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https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/2019/04/college-football-coaches-want-changes-to-ncaa-transfer-waiver-process-support-all-undergraduate-transfers-sitting-out-a-year-gain-back-upon-graduation.html
For the academic good of the student-athletes, the AFCA (coaches association) wants to force all transfers to sit out a year at their new school. Once they graduate they can get the year of eligibility back so all they’ve lost is time, not eligibility. They also want the NCAA to tighten up the waiver process for immediate eligibility and let teams with new coaches sign more than 25 recruits.
It’s nice to see the coaches are so concerned about the bets interests of the players. None of this sounds selfish at all.
“Most of the time when young people are transferring they probably need to a sit a year anyway,” [American Football Coaches Association executive director Todd] Berry said Monday at the site of spring meetings for the Pac-12, Big 12, American, MAC and Mountain West. “The rationale behind that, if you look at all the statistics in relation to graduation rates, if they don’t sit then the likelihood of them graduating is diminished significantly. If that’s the whole end game, which that’s what this is supposed to be about – we have a scholastic model not a professional model – is that they get a degree, even if it’s a three-and-a-half year time frame or whatever we recognize when they transfer that they’re going to lose some hours.
“What we’ve advocated is the fact that everybody sits a year, all the undergraduate students, they sit a year regardless of the situation with the idea or concept that when they graduate from the university that they transferred to that they get that year back. Basically, the young person doesn’t lose any time frame in it. There’s still this concept of, ‘If I want to play this next year then I need to stick it out, fight for my job and all those other kinds of things,’ but if those circumstances warrant them (transferring) because they’re not happy, they don’t feel like they’re in the right position or whatever, then they still have that opportunity, still have the scholarship, still have all those kind of things, basically have that year potentially as a redshirt year if they graduate.”
…
While advocating for a structure that would remove any waivers from the process, the AFCA is also asking the NCAA, whom it works with as part of the NCAA’s Transfer Working Group, to review the waiver process.
While Berry concedes there are extenuating circumstances that would warrant a player transferring and being granted eligibility, specifically medical hardships within a family, he can cite such situations where sitting a year still would’ve been to the player’s benefit.
…
“Where the leniency came was surprising to everyone this year,” Berry said. “I think we all spent the last year-and-a-half, (NCAA Football) Oversight (Committee), Transfer Working Group, everybody, trying to come up with things that we think were legitimate and fair and right in relation to – that academics has got to have a place in this. … There is a fine line here. We want things that are documented and proven and anything that’s not documented, whenever you’re making accusations — we had a (Santino Marchiol) that actually came here, to the state of Arizona, from Texas (A&M) last year that made a lot of accusations that ended proven to be incorrect trying to get that. What we’re wanting to do is say, ‘Hey, listen, we want things that are documented and anything that’s not documented there shouldn’t be because we can’t just let the individuals make up things as they go.’”
…
Coaches also want the annual signing limit of 25 to expand for teams that lose a certain number of transfers during an offseason.
“It’s not fair to the schools that lost a coach,” Berry said. “You have 5-10 kids transfer and you’re stuck at the 25 cap, you can’t even replace the (outgoing players).”
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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/college-mobility/
A look at SES mobility at various colleges and universities. The data is from the Chetty study that looked at how many lower income students various schools admit and how those students went on to do in school and life. Mobility can be defined in many ways, but in this infographic it is students whose parents were in the bottom 40% and ended up in the top 40% of their student cohort in their mid-30s.
The site lets you put in a specific school and see details about it. Not every school is in the database fully because they had to provide data from all the way back to the early 80s. OSU missed out by 1 or 2 years, for example, but they still have some data on OSU. It shows how a school compares to its peers in multiple ways.
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Sinclair lands the 21 former FOX RSNs from Disney for more than $10 billion.
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ESPN’s post-Spring way-too-early top 25
http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26642052/post-spring-college-football-power-rankings
ACC (2): #1 Clemson & #22 Syracuse
SEC (7): #2 Alabama, #3 Georgia, #8 Florida, #9 LSU, #12 A&M, #18 Auburn & #25 Miss St
B-12 (2): #4 Oklahoma & #11 Texas
B1G (6): #5 Ohio St, #7 Michigan, #13 Penn St, #20 Nebraska, #21 Wisconsin & #23 Iowa
IND (2): #6 Notre Dame & #24 Army
P-12 (5): #10 Oregon, #15 Washington, #16 Utah, #17 Stanford & #19 Wash St
AAC (1): #14 UCF
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https://pac-12.com/article/2019/05/02/pac-12-mens-basketball-20-game-conference-schedule-approved-2020-21
The P12 is also moving to a 20 game MBB schedule, as of 2020-21.
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This is a test to see if I can post again
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For some reason I have been locked out of commenting for a few months, but maybe I am back. One quick note. It does seem that other than in football, Rutgers is moving toward B1G mediocrity. Several teams have managed to finish in the top half of the B1G, or at least close. Mens bball seems to be looking up under coach Pikiell.
Football is a totally lost cause until they buy out the terrible coach. That may not happen for two more years, until they can afford to buy out the Ash contract.
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If you have long term issues, email Frank. Sometimes the blog host can get things fixed that users can’t. WordPress has its issues sometimes. This blog also starts to act funny once their are enough comments. I’ve had it be impossible to comment for a few days and then suddenly it works again.
As for RU, they really had nowhere to go but up.
2014-15
Only 4 of 23 teams finished in the top 2/3 of the B10 with 0 champs and 10 last place finishes.
2015-16
7 of 23 teams finished in the top 2/3 of the B10 with 0 champs and 8 last place finishes.
2016-17
4 of 23 teams finished in the top 2/3 of the B10 with 0 champs and 13 last place finishes.
The person who tracked this seems to have stopped after 2017, so I don’t know how RU fared in 2107-18 or 2018-19 and I don’t feel like doing the research.
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I know that women’s basketball finished 3rd in the conference. Probably the best result (in conference) since being in the B1G. I know that wrestling had a better national ranking but was lower in the conference. On the other extreme, women’s volleyball lost every match, which is still not as bad as football, since no one cares about volleyball.
The academic front is a bit better. NCAA APR recognition was given to 9 Rutgers sports, second most in the B!G. Northwestern was first in the B1G. A total of 67 B1G teams received recognition, so 9 out of 67 is not bad for RU. https://scarletknights.com/news/2019/5/1/general-school-record-nine-programs-earn-ncaa-academic-recognition.aspx
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Nobody ever doubted RU’s academic side. I think their athletics will become decent across the board in a reasonable time frame. RU is trying to compete on a higher level and it takes some time for better recruiting to happen. They also need time to catch up financially. Football will probably be the last to improve as tough as the division is.
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Academically, Rutgers and Maryland are far better than UConn, and eventually they will be far better than UConn in athletics, too.
Now, if we could only find a way to make Johns Hopkins a permanent associate member and to induce Chicago to come back in some form, life would be perfect. Yes, I know about the Big Ten Academic Alliance (formerly Committee on Institutional Cooperation, CIC), but there must be some sport Chicago can support.
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Unfortunately I don’t think the NCAA allows schools to move just 1 sport to D-I anymore. They grandfathered in schools like JHU that were doing it before the cutoff. UChicago would have to completely join D-I. Maybe they could join in esports instead.
https://nacda.com/sports/2018/7/17/directorscup-nacda-directorscup-current-scoring-html.aspx
Current Directors Cup standings:
1. Stanford – as always
2. MI
3. PSU
4. WI
5. MN
7. OSU
17. IN
23. IA
24. NE
38. MSU
39. UMD
45. PU
54. IL
58. NW
62. UConn
81. RU
Many of the B10 schools will drop in the final standings as we tend to do poorly in many of the spring sports and there are 14 sports left. Still, that’s a little higher than RU has been finishing lately (reverse order since joining the B10: 107, 116, 83, 104). Hopefully as the money starts to increase for RU they can become on par with the rest of the conference.
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Not for nothing, RU might have its first “marketable” female athlete
http://bigten.org/news/2019/5/8/general-ashnault-johanek-bestowed-rutgers-big-ten-medal-of-honor.aspx?fbclid=IwAR1lva7ODfhIwgvsjh9Nj4fUW-AKyFixywCU2KMDQ7D7UvQKLrZR-AC_8_U
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Not exactly. Carli Lloyd, RU 2004, was recently considered to be the best woman’s soccer player in the world. She was FIFA player of the year in 2015 and 2016 and was the superstar of the 2015 World Cup. Lloyd scored three goals (in the first 16 minutes) in the final against Japan. She was the first woman and second person to ever score a hat trick in a World Cup final. She was certainly (and may still be) the most marketable woman’s soccer player in the world. In fact, she may be the most marketable woman’s soccer player ever.
Being a super star on the American teams does not hurt marketability.
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I don’t think Lloyd is still at the top for marketability. Alex Morgan has passed her by for the US and Marta is probably tops in the world since her country actually cares about soccer. And as for all time, I think that has to be Mia Hamm. She was the best player in the world for years and married a star baseball player which kept her name out there. None of that is to diminish what Lloyd has done or dispute her marketability.
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I assume that it will surprise no one that Carli Lloyd had a years long falling out with RU soccer. It did finally get resolved after the 2015 World Cup and she was willing accept some honors from Rutgers.
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Illinois should move up after the spring. Tennis, golf, and baseball are some of their best sports. Tennis had disappointing endings to their season, but the men were ranked #15 in the nation and both finished 2nd in conference. Both golf teams still competing for nationals with good chances to advance. Baseball is ranked #25 with a good chance of making the NCAA tournament.
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Illinois men’s and women’s golf both made it through regionals to qualify for the Championship final site. For the women, it was their first time ever qualifying. Softball also made it into the NCAA tournament and is still alive. Baseball is in good shape to make the tournament and could potentially host with a strong finish.
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Avengers Endgame came out before Frank posted again.
That’s a mild upset.
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Jon Wilner used the sale price for all those RSNs to estimate the P12Ns fair market value right now, which is relevant to trying to sell a small share for $500M – $750M. That price is based on the P12N being worth $5B according to Larry Scott.
I’ll summarize:
RSNs sold for $10.6B (6X their EBITDA)
P12 had $384M in “net revenue” (P12 + P12N)
6 * 384 = $2.3B (much less than $5B)
Confounding factors:
1. RSNs reach 74M people, a lot more than P12N does
2. OTOH, premium P12 content (tier 1 CFB and MBB) has higher value and is most of the revenue
If arbitrarily double the factor to 12X, still only at $4.6B.
But 12X seems high since YES sold for 8.4X EBITDA.
8.4 * 384 = $3.2B, so $750M should get closer to 25% than the 10% the P12 has mentioned.
Also, note that none of the digital giants bid on the RSNs. The P12 is counting on new players upping the price.
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I believe Amazon may have been interested, but only in the streaming aspect. Plus major sports broadcasters were excluded from bidding. Interesting, but not exactly parallel offering.
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https://tucson.com/sports/arizonawildcats/basketball/ncaa-official-says-feds-won-t-turn-over-all-evidence/article_6d9cb19c-72a4-11e9-b22d-07c734a3ee9f.html
The feds are limiting what evidence they will turn over to the NCAA from the hoops investigation. The article explains in more details plus contains links to other articles on the subject.
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Colorado and Florida have scheduled a home and home:
“Colorado and Florida will kick off their home-and-home series at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville on Sept. 9, 2028. The Buffaloes will host the Gators the following season at Folsom Field in Boulder on Sept. 8, 2029.
At present, the game at Colorado will mark Florida’s first non-conference road game outside the state of Florida since a 38-21 loss at Syracuse in 1991.”
https://fbschedules.com/colorado-home-and-home-football-series-florida-missouri/
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26738819/orange-bowl-changed-jan-1-dec-30
The Orange Bowl has decided to move back from 1/1 (@ 1pm against other bowl games) to 12/30 @ 8pm (Wednesday night) against no other games.
That seems like a gamble for ratings, but maybe the lack of competition will make up for not being on 1/1.
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FOX has stated it will place its “best game of the day” in the 12:00 p.m. (ET) time slot every week.
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That’s an indirect challenge/bulletin board material to the Pac-12.
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I don’t think the PAC particularly want 9 am starts.
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Great. I hope that means fewer night games for OSU.
CBS has the SEC GotW at 3:30 plus ABC/ESPN has a national game, so that’s a tough time slot. Primetime is also crowded with good games where ABC usually dominates.
12 ET is tough on the P12 and not great for the B12, though. But perhaps this moves more B10 games early, freeing later slots for the B12 and P12 so everyone wins.
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https://thebiglead.com/2019/05/13/fox-is-really-making-a-run-at-college-gameday-by-putting-its-best-games-on-at-noon/
The consensus seems to be that this is based on Fox trying to promote their pregame show and compete with College GameDay. It will also let them face less competition for their best games, hopefully improving ratings.
It’s probably good for the P12 as they won’t play at 9am PT so they have more chances for the prime windows. And because they can’t play at 12 ET, they avoid the situation of not being the top game. The B12 is probably the conference that will suffer the most from this.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2019/05/104489/kickoff-times-announced-for-ohio-states-games-against-florida-atlantic-cincinnati-indiana-michigan-state
OSU announced 6 of their 12 kickoff times for this season. There are 3 noon games on Fox (8/31 vs FAU, 9/14 @ IN, 11/30 @ MI) plus a noon game on ABC (9/7 vs UC). One night game is the Friday night game @ NW, so there is no other window available. The other is 10/5 vs MSU which ABC/ESPN has set for 7:30pm. Unfortunately that is homecoming, but schools have given up control.
There will be more night games (@ NE and vs WI are 2 options), but it’s nice to see this many day games.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26747489/ncaa-explores-compensation-names-likeness
Once again the NCAA “is looking into” student-athletes being compensated in some way for use of their names, images or likenesses.
The NCAA made it clear, however, that the group would not consider anything that could be construed as paying athletes.
…
“While the formation of this group is an important step to confirming what we believe as an association, the group’s work will not result in paying students as employees,” Smith said. “That structure is contrary to the NCAA’s educational mission and will not be a part of this discussion.”
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“I am thankful the NCAA has created a working group to examine my Student-Athlete Equity Act and how it will empower college athletes with free-market opportunities,” Walker said in response to the NCAA’s announcement. “While this is encouraging, the NCAA has claimed to study this issue for years. Now they need to act to fix the injustices in their model, protect athletes and save the college sports we love.”
“The NCAA is profiting on the backs of unpaid labor, and I’ve felt like maybe it’s time where we’ve reached a place to right this wrong. Student-athletes are the only ones on a college campus who have to sign over their rights to their image. And 99 percent of these student-athletes will never receive any kind of compensation from a professional sports organization, so you’re basically stymying any type of growth and networking. It just doesn’t make any sense.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2019/05/15/big-ten-revenue-hit-nearly-759-million-fiscal-2018/3686089002/
The B10’s financial numbers for 2017-18 are out and they are impressive.
2018 – $759M in total revenue
2017 – $513M
That’s 48% growth. It also means payouts of roughly $54M per school for the 12 full-share members according to the article.
UMD got 26.1 while RU got 11.7 (not counting loans), leaving 721.2. 721.2/13 = 55.5, so apparently the conference kept more than an equal share of the revenue. How much was for expenses and how much was for reserves I don’t know.
Previous conference record:
2018 SEC – $660M
That’s $99M more for the B10.
Expect something from Jon Wilner in 3, 2, 1 ….
The revenue total was driven by new TV agreements that took effect at the start of the 2017-18 school year and resulted in payments of roughly $54 million to each of the 14-team conference’s 12 longest-standing members. Maryland and Rutgers received smaller revenue-share amounts, but both schools also received loans from the conference against future revenue shares.
…
The Big Ten’s new basic per-school share means that those programs received more money from one revenue source than the vast majority of Division I athletics departments had in total. More than 170 of the 213 public-school athletics programs outside the Big Ten reported less than $54 million in operating revenue for fiscal 2017, the most recent year for which figures have been compiled by USA TODAY, in partnership with Syracuse University’s S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications.
…
Maryland’s loan from the Big Ten in fiscal 2018 was just under $31 million. When added to its revenue share of $26.1 million, this means Maryland received more money from the Big Ten in 2018 than any school. But it also means Maryland has been loaned more than $66 million during its first four years in the conference, and its future revenue shares will be adjusted accordingly.
Rutgers’ loan from the conference — $14 million — is its first. Rutgers’ revenue share for 2018 was $11.7 million.
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One unintended consequence of the transfer portal according to Ralph Russo on Twitter (@ ralphDrussoAP) – so many players are entering it that there aren’t enough scholarships available in I-A for all of them due to the annual 25 recruits limit. Players have to choose between staying put or dropping down to I-AA.
One of the things I have been hearing a lot when talking to coaches about the portal is: There are more players in the portal than scholarships available because of the yearly limit of 25 signings. Interested to see if FBS to FCS transfers are up this year.
…
I had an FBS coach (not from Penn State) tell me he had a couple of kids enter the portal and land at FCS because there just wasn’t much in terms of FBS options. Of course this has always happened, but i do wonder if the newfound freedom for players is coming with a hard reality.
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https://www.wralsportsfan.com/acc-network-announces-first-three-weeks-of-college-football/18389583/
The ACCN has released their game schedule for the first 3 weeks. On week 2 they have a Friday night game followed by a quadruple header on Saturday that starts at 11 am.
Presumably that’s a one time thing to draw interest to a new network, but I can’t imagine 11am ET games being popular with fans. B12 and western B10 fans certainly have never been thrilled with 11 am CT kicks.
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Today is the one year anniversary of this post. It is down to one comment per day. Perhaps another post is in order.
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Today is the 39th anniversary of Mount St. Helens popping its cork. 🌋
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Does that mean that Frank will post again 38 years from now?
Are you and me the only people that read Brian’s posts?
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No you are not the only ones. Has Frank abandoned this board? Does anyone know?
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I’m sure life has interrupted his focus on things conference and/or realignment related. It is several years before the next media rights contracts may begin to have real pre negotiation explorations. Frank’s kids deserve his attention in the absence of actual action (and probably then, too).
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I read them too.
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https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/2019/05/16/big-ten-commissioner-search/3692464002/
Several B10 ADs talking about what they would look for in the next B10 commissioner.
“I think the conference has sustained itself for many decades, has grown very carefully and has a unique culture that allowed us to create the Big Ten Network,” said Michigan State athletic director Bill Beekman. “I think where you’ve seen other conferences sort of come and go or struggle, the Big Ten’s always been very stable and solid and I think a lot of that has to do with the culture that’s developed between the member institutions.
“That’s, to me, what makes the conference really strong and really great. Hopefully we’ll have a person that understands that, gets that culture and can lead us into the next number of decades.”
When asked what they would look for in the next commissioner, Beekman, Alvarez and Smith all spoke to the value of understanding the Big Ten’s culture and background.
“I think certainly you have to have someone that understands this league and appreciates what this league represents,” Alvarez said. “Someone that is strong enough they can deal with coaches and athletic directors and chancellors at the universities and build a consensus. Someone that the people in the room, whether it be athletic directors or coaches, believe in that can draw a consensus from that room.”
Smith called the Big Ten “a value-based league” and is looking for someone who understands those values and the culture of the conference. He also believes the next commissioner must be able to guide the league through “what’s coming at us … from this transfer issue to names, visual likeness.”
…
“I think the right person from inside the league would be appropriate,” Smith said. “I think if it’s something they want to do. Their advantage of understanding us. I think you can’t say that too lightly.
“I mean, we’re different. We’re different than a lot of leagues. We’re collaborative. We’re collegial. We work together. We make sacrifices for one another. Look at the Friday night deal in football. At the end of the day, we do what’s best for the league. And that takes sacrifice. Somebody to help continue that is very important.”
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/highschool/2019/05/20/youth-sports-deaths-basketball-study-finds/39490645/
The deadliest youth sport is hoops by a wide margin.
The National Athletic Trainers’ Association found that sudden cardiac deaths was the most common condition to kill a youth athlete in middle school or a youth or recreation league. The vast majority were boys at an average age of 13 and two-thirds took place at practice, not in a game.
There were 45 deaths over the nine-year period NATA studied. Sixteen of them were on the basketball court (35.6%), seven apiece while playing baseball or football (15.6%) and six occurred while playing soccer (13.4%).
NATA’s study focused on youth athletes in middle school, youth and recreation leagues. In the study, the organization noted that comprehensive reports have been made at the high school and collegiate level, but this is the first of its kind around the middle-school age group.
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Over the course of the study, there were 1.83 deaths per 10 million athlete-years, but in 2015, it increased to 3.84 deaths per 10 million.
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https://conferenceusa.com/news/2019/5/20/general-c-usa-nfln-partnership.aspx
C-USA has struck a deal to televise 10 games this fall on NFL Network, showing one game each week on a Saturday afternoon.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/05/21/college-football-quarterback-transfer-surge-causing-coaches-adjust/1141765001/
A look at the numbers of QB transfers in I-A football and the problems it is causing.
“It’s just what guys do nowadays, especially at that position,” Dykes said. “You’d hope that guys will be invested enough in the program where they’d at the very least go through a quarterback battle before they stuck their tails between their legs and left. But you know how it is.”
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All but eight of the teams ranked in the final USA TODAY Coaches Poll to end last season have lost an on-scholarship backup quarterback to transfer since last August; of those eight, three — Central Florida, Northwestern and West Virginia — now have a former Power Five transfer in competition for the starting job.
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The impact is felt most on the lower tiers of an individual program’s depth chart, where a constant state of upheaval has left teams scrambling to find a competent secondary option. Across the entire 65 schools in the Power Five in 2018, for example, just two teams featured a senior quarterback on scholarship who had remained with the program across four years of eligibility without grabbing the starting role.
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Seventeen of the top 25 quarterbacks in the 2016 recruiting class have transferred, each due to an inability to grab or maintain the starting job. Meanwhile, the number of FBS graduate transfers at all positions has likewise increased, from 70 in 2014 to 168 in 2017, according to the most recent NCAA data.
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Spurred on by changes in NCAA rules, which no longer require student-athletes to request permission to transfer while creating a national database available to all college coaches, more than 60 quarterbacks across the FBS have transferred or announced an intent to transfer since last August. The position comprises a disproportionate percentage of the total number of student-athletes currently listed in the portal, according to unofficial tracking of transfers.
…
“The best thing you can always do is be real honest guys and be as transparent as you can be,” Dykes said. “There’s so much cloak-and-dagger B.S. when it comes to recruiting quarterbacks that I think they appreciate the honesty.”
More and more, however, coaching staffs are leaning on walk-on recruits, those without scholarships, to beef up their quarterback depth. In a best-case scenario, walk-on quarterbacks represent the ideal: a capable backup unlikely to transfer.
“I think that’s really important,” said North Carolina State coach Dave Doeren. “They add a lot of value even if they’re not playing.”
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26789936/pac-12-revenue-drops-school-payouts-rise
While the B10’s revenue went up by almost $250M, the P12’s actually dropped. The Rose Bowl hosting the CFP cost them more than the escalator clauses in their TV deals helped.
Pac-12 revenue fell by $12 million in 2018 to $497 million because the conference could not make up for lost Rose Bowl revenue from when the game hosted a College Football Playoff semifinal after the 2017 season.
Payouts to Pac-12 member schools rose 5 percent to $31.3 million each as conference distributions included money held back from Rose Bowl payments in the previous two years. The Pac-12’s Rose Bowl revenue dropped from about $36 million in each of the seasons during which the conference’s champion participated in the game to about $14 million when it hosted the CFP. The Rose Bowl hosts a national semifinal every third season.
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The Pac-12 is seeking an investor to purchase equity in the conference’s media rights, hoping to inject hundreds of millions in revenue.
Colorado chancellor Philip DiStefano said there has been “significant interest in some of the most respected companies investing in this space.”
“While we can’t publicly say the company’s names, we can say it’s a diversity of organizations ranging from traditional players to technology companies,” DiStefano said. “While we had a robust discussion today of the pros and cons of such a deal, we did not make any final decisions.”
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This story is few days old. OSU athletes, including football players, are claiming that they were abused by a school doctor between 1979 and 1997. http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26774872/osu-football-players-allege-abuse-campus
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Article in USA Today about the issues related to QB transfers. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/05/21/college-football-quarterback-transfer-surge-causing-coaches-adjust/1141765001/
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26800703/nfl-asks-teams-stop-oklahoma-drill-others
The NFL told teams to drop certain high contact drills from training camp. How long until the NCAA follows suit?
The NFL has asked teams to eliminate some high-impact drills — including the iconic Oklahoma drill — from training camp practices as part of the league’s ongoing effort to reduce concussion numbers.
The league acknowledged the request Tuesday during its spring meeting in Key Biscayne, Florida. The recommendation came in response to data that showed a high rate of concussions during the early part of training camp in recent years.
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https://www.apartmentlist.com/rentonomics/best-worst-cities-college-graduates-2019/
Best cities for college graduates.
To find out which American cities are best for college graduates, Apartment List graded 100 of the largest U.S. cities using five indicators in three categories – jobs, affordability, and livability.
…
The worst cities for college graduates are located in California, Florida and throughout the Northeast.
Popular destinations for college graduates such as New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Denver, and Austin didn’t make it to the top of our list due to their lack of affordability for those just starting their careers.
A+
1. Madison
A
2. Lincoln
3. Minneapolis
4. Arlington, VA
A-
5. Pittsburgh
6. Columbus
7. Boise
8. Raleigh
9. Lubbock
10. Norfolk
11-15 in alphabetical order: Austin, Cincinnati, Denver, Nashville and DC
That’s 4 B10 home cities, 2 ACC and 1 B12 in the top 10.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2019/05/22/mike-brey-calls-on-schools-fire-coaches-who-break-rules/3770116002/
Mike Brey is the head of the coaches association and said the NABC wants schools to bring the hammer down on cheating coaches. He also wants the NCAA to punish them. Funny how his group isn’t acting first.
“Why don’t AD’s and presidents drop the hammer?” Brey said while appearing as a panelist before a meeting of the Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics here.
Brey acknowledged that the NABC needs to a better job overseeing its own membership. He also noted that schools may fear getting sued by coaches who face the termination of multi-million-dollar contracts with no further pay. But he said: “We need an explosion back. … There’s no hammer from the top of campus.”
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LSU’s Will Wade has lost pay and bonus money, and both he and Arizona’s Sean Miller have agreed to adjustments of their contract terms in reaction to allegations surrounding their programs.
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Brey said in an interview after his appearance: “I was voicing what I hear from our membership.”
He said NCAA enforcement director Jon Duncan has bluntly told the coaches association that the NCAA’s enforcement staff will “follow the evidence (from the corruption cases) where it leads.” In other words, it is still possible the NCAA will pursue infractions cases that almost certainly would cost coaches their jobs.
“But there’s not a lot of confidence by our fellow coaches,” Brey said. “Our guys are like, ‘Well, you know…'”
This particularly seems to be the case among coaches working for schools in one of the Power Five conferences, Brey indicated.
“I had a mid-major coach tell me yesterday … ‘Mike, if one of my assistants was led out of the office handcuffs, I don’t think I’d have my job.’“
“No question the NABC could make a stronger stand,” Brey said. “I think we have not maybe been as vocal about some of the things that have gone on. … But I’ll say: Doesn’t it start on the campuses? I feel that’s where the first strong stand has to start. It can’t always be thrown to the NCAA or, hey, how about you guys policing your own?”
“Our membership is watching all of this closely,” he added, meaning how both schools and the NCAA end up dealing the scandal. “I think there’s amazing pressure on the NCAA to do something on this and to make some real impact on this, and I’m confident in it. And I know I am totally in the minority, but I just think this time around it’s going to happen.”
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https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/48373886
FIFA is dropping their attempt to expand the World Cup to 48 teams in 2022 instead of 2026. After further consideration, both sides agreed that Qatar can’t handle the extra games and their neighbors can’t co-host properly (especially with 3 of them blockading Qatar). That means the US/Canada/Mexico WC in 2026 will be the first expanded version.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26801838/st-thomas-wins-too-much-kicked-miac
The D-III Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference (MIAC) is kicking out the University of St. Thomas for winning too much.
The MIAC used to be dominated in football by St. John’s University under John Gagliardi (27 MIAC titles, 2 NCAA titles) but SJU is the second smallest schools in the MIAC. Since 2010, UST has won 6 MIAC titles and made 2 NCAA title games.
UST also finished 10th in the D-III Directors’ Cup last year and is currently 4th. The second place MIAC team is #41 overall and the third is #70, so there is a clear disparity.
The MIAC also has an all-sports trophy for each gender and UST has dominated those.
Men: UST – 31, SJU – 14, 3 others – 11 combined (8 schools have never won it)
Women: UST – 26, Gustavus Adolphus – 5, 2 others – 4 combined (9 schools have never won it)
UST won both titles every year from 2008 on.
To be fair, UST is much larger than all the other MIAC members (6111 undergrads while #2 has only 3176 and the smallest just 1590) and spends a lot on sports (over $1.1M on football alone).
“After extensive membership discussions, the University of St. Thomas will be involuntarily removed from membership in the Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference,” the league said in a statement. “The MIAC Presidents’ Council cites athletic competitive parity in the conference as a primary concern. St. Thomas will begin a multi-year transition immediately and meanwhile is eligible to compete as a full member of the MIAC through the end of spring 2021.”
Is this the right approach for a conference that has been together for a long time (most members are from the 1920s including UST)? 6 of the 13 schools are in the Twin Cities with the rest a short drive away.
It seems clear that one school has developed a different focus than the rest and constant dominance in all sports by one school is bad for morale. I think they may be right to do this assuming they had talked to UST about the issue before but UST refused to change their approach. UST might be a better fit in a more competitive athletic conference.
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Is it possible that UST football has many more football players, consistently bigger players, etc, so the conference is concerned about safety issues in football?
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Not really, no. I pulled up the rosters for UST and SJU to compare. SJU has more players (170 to 135) and the average weight was almost identical (UST – 213, SJU – 215). Obviously I’m not going to compare size by position or anything, and I can’t account for skill level. But if they are happy to let SJU stay, I don’t think safety is the issue.
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http://www.startribune.com/st-thomas-vows-to-attack-what-s-next-after-being-kicked-out-of-miac/510270892/
A more detailed article from the MSP newspaper.
While the Tommies have won the MIAC’s men’s and women’s all-sports titles in each of the past 11 seasons, their football dominance rubbed some members the wrong way. Since Glenn Caruso took over as coach in 2008, the Tommies have won six conference titles and played in two NCAA Division III championship games. They routinely have blown out conference opponents, with nine MIAC victories by 50 or more points in the past two seasons.
The tipping point for many, a source told the Star Tribune, was the Tommies’ 97-0 romp at St. Olaf in 2017.
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Esten, a St. Thomas alumnus who took over his role in January, acknowledged that football gets the most attention but that the success of the Tommies’ entire athletic department prompted the MIAC’s decision.
“This is about the competitiveness across the board,” he said.
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One issue for St. Thomas if it went to Division II: Its men’s and women’s hockey teams could no longer play at the Division III level. The Tommies, with no Division II hockey option, would be forced to play in Division I. Starting programs at college hockey’s highest level is an expensive undertaking.
If St. Thomas wants to move all its programs to Division I, it first must go through a three-year process of transitioning to Division II, then stay at that level for five years. The move from Division II to Division I requires a four-year period, so that’s a 12-year commitment to move from Division III to Division I.
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Yes, they need to get into the WAC then Horizon/MVC trajectory. Hockey might be problematic but they could go WCHA or CCHA.
They are the pre-eminent Catholic postsecondary institution in the Twin Cities in the same way that many members of the BE and A10 are in theirs (I was thsicolse to being a Johnnie for undergrad).
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https://www.dispatch.com/news/20190523/columbus-now-bigger-than-san-francisco-census-bureau-says
Columbus is now more populous than San Francisco. Columbus is still the 14th largest US city, though, as Fort Worth jumped both cities to take 13th. SF’s metro area is still twice as populous as Columbus’s (but that also includes Oakland).
At #11, Columbus was the only midwestern city in the top 15 for growth rate at 1.2%.
The article also has a map that shows every town of 5000+ in OH and their growth rates (a lot shrank a little since 2017).
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https://sd09.senate.ca.gov/news/20190522-calif-state-senate-greenlights-sb-206-fair-pay-play-act
This could get interesting. The CA State Senate passed “The Fair Pay to Play Act” 31-4.
Under SB 206, all student athletes enrolled in public and private colleges and universities in California would be able to earn money from their name, image, or likeness (endorsement or sponsorship deals), starting in 2023. The Fair Pay to Play Act also prohibits California colleges and universities from enforcing NCAA rules that prevent student athletes from earning compensation. Receiving income would also not affect a student’s scholarship eligibility.
In addition, the Fair Pay to Play Act would bar the NCAA from preventing student athletes from earning compensation. And the legislation would prohibit the NCAA from banning California colleges and universities from intercollegiate sports if their athletes sign sponsorship deals. SB 206 would also allow college athletes to hire sports agents. And to ensure fairness, the bill would bar colleges and universities from signing high school students to sponsorship deals as a recruiting tool.
I don’t think a state has the power to bar the NCAA from having amateurism rules (or at least they shouldn’t have that power). NCAA membership is voluntary after all. But I’m not a lawyer so I’ll let those of you who are tell me why I’m wrong.
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I totally agree with you regarding the state power over the NCAA. If CA did, then other states could pass conflicting legislation. For example Florida could pass a bill denying the right of the NCAA to allow any type of compensation. Then what?
In theory all of the colleges in CA could leave the NCAA and form their own leagues. The chance of that is zero, but they could do it.
I am also pretty sure that Stanford was one of the schools that said that it would drop big time sports rather than allow a player to be paid.
What happens to the WA, OR, AZ, CO and UT schools in the PAC 12?
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/expected-playoff-expansion-decreased-attendance-have-college-football-teams-strengthening-schedules/
You see more P5 schools scheduling quality OOC games in the far future. This change is being driven by expectations that the CFP will expand to 8 teams at the end of the current deal (2025) if not sooner.
I will note that many of these new home and home series involve SEC teams. Maybe the pressure of 3 P5 conferences playing 9 conference games is having an effect. Or maybe the SEC is worried that the committee might be given new instructions that would level the playing field. Or maybe they think they can get 3-4 at large bids every year in an expanded CFP.
[UF AD Scott] Stricklin found out in the space of three days earlier this month. He combined the announcement of a home-and-home with Colorado in 2028-29 with the tease of something bigger. A couple of days later, he tweeted out that Florida had agreed to a home-and-home series with Texas in 2030-31.
There was a bit of obvious jaw-dropping around college football. Florida hasn’t gone outside the state for a nonconference regular-season game since 1991, and it has not played a home-and-home out of state since 1989.
…
Those administrators have determined those risks are worth the potential reward – a CFP berth.
“Otherwise,” Georgia AD Greg McGarity said, “you wouldn’t be doing this.”
…
n the space of three months, from February to May, eight national nonconference games were announced. All but one of them was scheduled after 2025.
“The distinction between some schools is very thin,” McGarity said. “If I’m sitting in the room and I’m a selection committee member, I’m going to value who you play and how did you schedule up. You get extra credit there. I think that’s where it’s leading.”
…
That’s why you see Auburn scheduling a home-and-home with Penn State in 2021-22. LSU is playing Texas each of the next two seasons. Clemson (2025-26) and Oklahoma (2027-28) have also done home-and-homes with the Tigers. Notre Dame will come to Georgia on Sept. 21, returning the 2017 game in South Bend, Indiana.
For those schools, risking a playoff berth outweighs scheduling an automatic W against, say, Furman.
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Those taking on the highest risk are willing to seek the highest reward. Between 2020-33, Georgia will play 13 nonconference games against Power Five opponents and Notre Dame. That’s the equivalent of one full season of must-see nonconference games. The current slate includes home-and-homes against UCLA and Clemson (twice). The total doesn’t include the annual rivalry game with Georgia Tech.
…
But since Byrne arrived in town 2 ½ years ago, he (and Nick Saban) have added home-and-homes series with Texas, West Virginia, Notre Dame and Oklahoma. Saban has a long history of playing neutral-site games with upcoming contests against USC (2020 in Dallas) and Miami (2021 in Atlanta).
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Brian – there have been several complaints from season ticket holders regarding the quality of the home non-conference schedule, not only in Baton Rouge, but throughout the SEC.
LSU’s P-5 schedule going forward is as follows:
2019 Texas away
2020 Texas home
2021 UCLA away
2022 Florida State in New Orleans
2023 Florida State in Orlando; Army home
2024 UCLA home
2025 Clemson away
2026 Clemson home
2027 Oklahoma away
2028 Oklahoma home
2029 Arizona State home
2030 Arizona State away
Loki – if you’re still out there, LSU has a 2 for 1 with Rice – 2018 home, 2020 away & 2024 home.
LSU’s scheduler is open to setting up additional neutral site games during this time span, as well.
I’m hopeful that (but not optimistic) that the SEC will require 10 P-5 games at some point.
I’m also hopeful (but not optimistic) that the SEC will allow beer to be sold in general seating areas. It will be one of the main topics at the upcoming SEC meetings.
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Alan,
One of the SEC guys in the article mentions the change over time in how fans have reacted to schedules. I think there are several big factors:
1. All games are now on TV in HD so you don’t have to go to every game.
2. Visiting team fans can stay home, too.
3. You used to be able to buy a season ticket for less than 1 game costs now.
Even SEC fans have to question paying high prices for I-AA cupcakes in November.
I think most fans would like to see 10 P5 games become the minimum standard for everyone. Certainly it should be for CFP teams (11 if you count the CCG). It will take forever to get the SEC to do that, though, and they will prevent the CFP from doing it.
Slowly the blue laws are getting overturned in the southeast. With all the reports of how well beer sales have worked elsewhere (fewer alcohol issues than before), it’s only a matter of time before the SEC drops the rule. Some schools may hold out for a while, though.
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Here’s SI’s deep dive on the SEC’s alcohol policy by former LSU beat writer Ross Delinger.
https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/05/23/sec-alcohol-sales-policy-rule-change-news?utm_campaign=si-extra&utm_source=si.com&utm_medium=email&utm_term=SI%20Extra%20-%20USE%20THIS%20-%20List
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http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/26860766/uga-sell-beer-wine-only-25k-donors
UGA will start selling beer to rich donors, but they have to drink it where they can’t watch the game live. Blue laws and their aftereffects (like this) are silly.
Evidence shows that selling beer significantly reduces alcohol-related issues in stadiums. I haven’t seen any data about DUIs (the only other reasonable concern to me). At a time when most schools are struggling financially, why turn down such an easy revenue source?
And an interesting note from Alan’s SI piece:
The SEC is not immune to the national attendance decline that hit a 22-year low this past season: The league’s per-game attendance average of 73,994 was the lowest since 2002 and nearly 5,000 below 2015’s average.
And with beer topping WiFi on the wish lists of fans (also in that piece), this makes it even more of a no-brainer.
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http://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26810447/ad-bjork-leaves-ole-miss-texas-job
The SEC AD cycle has turned again. LSU took TAMU’s AD in April. Now TAMU is taking Ole Miss’s AD.
What’s notable about this is that Ross Bjork was in charge at Ole Miss when all the football violations (details below) happened under Hugh Freeze. If he can’t keep Ole Miss clean, how will he control TAMU’s boosters and coaches?
Ole Miss received the sanctions after being accused of 15 Level I violations under former head coach Hugh Freeze. The NCAA panel on infractions said the school lacked institutional control and fostered “an unconstrained culture of booster involvement in football recruiting.”
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https://bigten.org/sports/2019/3/25/BASE_TOURNEY_19.aspx
Nice to see the B10 doing its usual in baseball.
Round 1:
#8 beats #1
#7 beats #2
#6 beats #3
#5 beats #4
Losers bracket:
#4 beats #1
#2 beats #3 – the first win by a higher seed
Round 2:
#7 beats #6 – weather delayed in bottom of 8th and resumed this morning
#8 vs #5 – postponed until today due to weather
Higher seeds: 1-6
Eliminated teams: #1, #3
2-0 teams: #7
1-0 teams: #5, #8 (playing each other now)
1-1 teams: #2, #4, #6
0-2 teams: #1, #3
Who wants at-large bids anyway?
—
Softball was much better until the NCAA tourney. 4 of the top 5 seeds made the B10 semifinals. 6 teams made the NCAA tourney, which is great for the B10, but only 2 teams (2 of the 3 national seeds – #7 and #16 with #15 losing) made the super-regionals (final 16).
—
Other spring sports (B10 teams still alive only):
WLAX – #1 vs #4 in one semifinal
MLAX – #1 in one semifinal
MTEN – #7 in one singles semifinal, none left in doubles, team title done
WTEN – in one doubles semifinal, none left in singles, team title done
MGOLF – 2 teams in NCAA tournament this weekend
WGOLF – done
MOT&F – NCAA preliminaries this weekend
WOT&F – NCAA preliminaries this weekend
WROW – 6 of the 22 teams in the NCAA tourney
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Follow up:
Baseball:
#5 knocked out #2 among other results.
Today – #4 vs #7 with the winner playing #5 for the B10 title
Others:
Softball – #7 won their super-regional to advance to the WCWS
MLAX – #1 lost semifinal
WLAX – #1 in final
MTEN – #7 lost singles semifinal, none left in doubles, team title done
WTEN – lost in doubles final, none left in singles, team title done
MGOLF – 1 team T7 after 2 rounds (but dropping like a rock today; top 15 teams advance)
WGOLF – done
MOT&F – NCAA preliminaries this weekend
WOT&F – NCAA preliminaries this weekend
WROW – 6 of the 22 teams in the NCAA tourney
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And the follow up to the follow up:
Baseball:
#7 beat #4 and then #5 to win the B10 title. That’s the lowest seed to ever win the title.
B10 baseball tournament history:
Started in 1981, well after the B10’s glory days of national titles.
1981 – 1999: 4 teams*
2000 – 2014: 6 teams
2015 – now: 8 teams
* From 1981 – 1987, B10 was split into East and West divisions and top 2 from each made the BTT. Divisions were eliminated in 1988.
Only in the 6 team era has the #1 seed done particularly well, and then only after the top 2 seeds got byes. This is why baseball tournaments are such bad ways to find the best team.
4 team era: #2 – 6 titles, #1 – 3, #3 – 2, #4 – 1
6 team era before byes: #3 – 1, #4 – 1
6 team era with byes for top 2: #1 – 8, #2 – 2, #3, 5, 6 – 1 each
8 team era: #1, 3, 4, 5, 7 – 1 each
Thankfully the regular season winner is the official B10 champion, the tourney only decides the AQ for the NCAA tourney.
There are a clear big 3 in BTT baseball. If you include all-time history then IL joins as a 4th power. Other than titles, numbers do not include 2019.
Most appearances:
MN – 32
OSU – 30
MI – 27
IL – 22
PU – 18
Others – 15 or fewer
Best W% in BTT after 5+ appearances:
MN – 0.605
OSU – 0.566
MI – 0.560
IN – 0.538
Others under 0.500 (UMD is 0.615 in 3 trips)
BTT titles:
MN – 10
OSU – 10
MI – 9
IN, IL – 4
BTT runners up:
MN – 11
OSU – 5
MI – 4
Others – 3 or fewer
B10 regular season titles:
MI – 35 (16 before WWII ended)
IL – 30 (18 before WWII ended)
MN – 22 (2 before WWII ended)
OSU – 16 (3 before WWII ended)
Others – 7 or fewer
Then the NCAA bracket came out.
Five B10 teams made it:
Regional #1 seeds – 0
#2 seeds – 2 (#1 and #3 seeds in B10 tourney)
#3 seeds – 2 (#2 and #5 seeds in B10 tourney)
#4 seeds – 1 (B10 champ)
By conference:
SEC – 10
ACC – 8
B10, B12, P12 – 5
Others:
WLAX – #1 won the final
MGOLF – 1 team T10 after 3 rounds, 3 strokes below the cut (top 8 teams after 4 rounds advance to match play for title). #1 seed currently has a 23-stroke lead over #2 after 3 rounds.
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http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/26815718/fired-baylor-coach-briles-lands-texas-hs-job
A misguided HS in TX has decided to hire Art Briles.
“We believe we have hired an exceptional coach who comes with strong references from his previous employers,” McCullough told ESPN-Central Texas AM Radio. “He has been forthright and honest with us and we believe that he will be able to use his life experiences to teach our young people how to deal with hardships, grow through adversity and develop strong character.”
Really? Strong references from whom, exactly? Baylor, where he was fired for conspiring to cover up rapes by his players? Perhaps from their former AD who was also fired for the same issue? The CFL team that hired him and then immediately reversed course when their fans complained? The football team in Italy?
And how do you know he was “forthright and honest” with you? He continues to deny everything despite all the evidence. I shudder to think about the sort of character he will help even younger and more impressionable players build after what happened at Baylor. If I had a daughter and lived there, I would be looking to move.
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NCAA Baseball tournament
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2019-05-27/2019-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-announced-ucla-top-overall
The national top 16 seeds are UCLA (47-8), Vanderbilt (49-10), Georgia Tech (41-17), Georgia (44-15), Arkansas (41-17), Mississippi St. (46-13), Louisville (43-15), Texas Tech (39-17), Oklahoma St. (36-18), East Carolina (43-15), Stanford (41-11), Ole Miss (37-25), LSU (37-24), North Carolina (42-17), West Virginia (37-20) and Oregon St. (36-18-1).
Multiple bid conferences
SEC10: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi St., Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
ACC 8: Clemson, Duke, Florida St., Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina
Big 12 5: Baylor, Oklahoma St., TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia
B1G 5: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio St.
Pac-12 5: Arizona St., California, Oregon St., Stanford, UCLA
AAC 3: Cincinnati, East Carolina, UConn
Mo. Valley 3: Dallas Baptist, Illinois St., Indiana St.
C-USA 2: Fla. Atlantic, Southern Miss.
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Geaux LSU Tigers!
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Thanks bob, it’s been a crazy season. From pre-season number one to losing a crazy amount of mid-week games. From the number one recruiting class to the number one disabled list. My Tigers are nowhere near full strength, but hopefully they’ll make it out the Regionals. The selection committee sent us Stoney Brook – the same team that pounded an outstanding Tiger team in the 2012 Super Regionals. The Tigers will start some oft-injured but phenomenal when healthy Freshmen pitchers and then see what happens.
This is such a great time of year.
Congrats to all you B1G fans getting five teams in the tournament.
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Only 4 of them deserved it. OSU only got in because of the stupidity of having a baseball tournament to decide the NCAA AQ. OSU was the #7 seed and had to sweep its final regular season series to even make the B10 tournament. Then all the top teams choked on day 1 and eventually OSU won the AQ slot.
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An interview with CU’s chancellor and head of the P12 CEOs group for now.
Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott’s job performance
“It’s been a rough time, you know. And he still has two, three more years on his contract (which was extended through 2022). As I’ve said, we’ll certainly take a (look) at that.
…
Where the Pac-12 Network went wrong
“It’s hard to say. One is, five or six years ago, should we have sold a piece of the network? It probably would’ve been to an ESPN or a FOX at that time. Should we have done that? Maybe. Maybe not.
“But I look at where we are now, and given what has happened in the media in the last five to seven years, are we in a better position owning 100 percent of the network, so that we can really go out and look at creative options which, if we had made a (partnered) deal earlier, we might not have been able to do? I wish I had the answer.”
Closing the revenue gap on the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12
“It goes back to filling our stadiums. There are media rights (issues), but then what can we do as campuses? And how can we be much more entrepreneurial in making sure that (they generate revenue)?
…
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https://bigten.org/news/2019/5/30/football-btn-espn-and-fox-announce-early-season-schedules.aspx
The early season kickoff times are out. This has all the B10 games scheduled so far.
5 Fox games at noon are on the list already.
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https://bigten.org/news/2019/5/29/mens-basketball-big-east-and-big-ten-announce-matchups-for-2019-gavitt-tipoff-games.aspx
The Gavitt Games match-ups are out.
Monday, Nov. 11
DePaul at Iowa
Tuesday, Nov. 12
Minnesota at Butler
Creighton at Michigan
Wednesday, Nov. 13
Villanova at Ohio State
Purdue at Marquette
Providence at Northwestern
Thursday, Nov. 14
Michigan State at Seton Hall
Penn State at Georgetown
Among the 16 participating schools, 14 played in the postseason last year, including nine in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The nine NCAA participants are: Iowa, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Seton Hall and Villanova. Ten of the 16 squads won at least 20 games last season.
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Prohibition has ended for the general seating areas in SEC stadiums and arenas!
https://www.secsports.com/article/26864537/sec-revises-conference-alcohol-policy
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It’s about time. I know LSU has been pushing for this for a long time.
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https://sportstvratings.com/episode-83-burke-magnus-espn/9374/
ESPN EVP for Programming and Scheduling Burke Magnus recently recorded a podcast with @SportsTVRatings and discussed many topics, including and especially ESPN+.
That link goes to the podcast. The link below goes to a transcript.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/10dGGjdk5VsjzeHDjpgtEVAZHUBANWLHkS9Oi5OlCU4w/edit
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/05/31/big-12-revenues-up-again-on-track-to-pass-40m-per-school/39533199/
B12 revenue numbers are in.
Big 12 revenue increased to $38.8 million per school for 2018-19, or a total of $388 million. Bowlsby said he anticipates those numbers reaching the mid-$40 million range per school before the current broadcast rights deal expires in 2024-25.
…
The figures announced Friday as the league wrapped up its spring meetings don’t include third-tier broadcast rights, such as what Texas gets through the Longhorn Network. Those totals vary by school.
Big 12 revenue still ranks third behind the Big Ten and Southeastern Conference. The Big Ten has reportedly distributed up to $54 million to its longest-standing members, and the SEC reported payouts of $43.7 million per school. The Pac-12 surpassed $30 million for the first time this year at $31.3 million. The Atlantic Coast Conference was reportedly just shy of $30 million.
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If the Big 12 is at $40 million per school, back to the same old question of which two teams, if any can bring in that $40 million. If Central Florida maintains anything close to its current playing level, the Orlando are certainly has that potential. Who else?
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As always, USF seems the logical partner for UCF. It gets more FL exposure for recruiting and adds another major market that may combine to achieve something close to critical mass for the B12 in the state.
Records since joining the AAC (in reverse order):
UCF: 12-1, 13-0, 6-7, 0-12, 9-4
USF: 7-6, 10-2, 11-2, 8-5, 4-8, 2-10
USF joined 1 year earlier and they have had similar success to UCF.
The other option is probably UC as a partner for WV, but I think they have less value.
North: ISU, KU, KSU, WV, UCF, USF
South: OU, OkSU, UT, TT, TCU, Baylor
Everyone in the north is guaranteed a game in FL every year plus a game in TX.
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June 2 Baseball tournament update. Regionals are double elimination format
# denotes national seed, () denotes regional seed.
Teams in the driver’s seat (2-0):
#2 Vandy, #5 Arkanasas, #6 Miss State, #8Texas Tech, #9 OK State, #12 Ole Miss, #13 LSU, #14 North Carolina, Auburn(2), Duke(3), Florida State(3), Michigan(3), Fresno St.(3), Illinois St. (3) & Loyola Marymount(3).
The East Carolina regionals have been delayed but the team in the driver’s seat will either be the Campbell Camels (3) or the Quinnipiac Pollsters (4).
P-5 teams eliminated (0-2):
#16 Oregon State, Cal(2), Illinois(2) & NC State(2)
Bad tourney for the P-12 so far. #16 Oregon State & Cal(2) eliminated. #1 UCLA & #11 Stanford & Ariz St.(2) with a loss.
No SEC team has been eliminated so far.
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June 2 baseball update #2
In 15 of the 16 regionals, the finals are set.
#1 UCLA (2-1) v. (3) Loyola Marymount (2-0)
#2 Vandy (2-0) v. (2) Indiana St. (2-1)
#3 GA Tech (2-1) v. (2) Auburn (2-0)
#4 Georgia (2-1) v. (3) Florida St. (2-0)
#5 Arkansas (2-0) v. (3) TCU (2-1)
#6 Miss St (2-0) v. (2) Miami (2-1)
#7 Louisville (2-1) v. (3) Illinois St. (2-0)
#8 Texas Tech (2-0) v. (2) Dallas Baptist (2-1)
#9 OK State (2-0) v. (2) UConn (2-1)
#10 East Carolina regional delayed by one day – (2) NC State eliminated
#11 Stanford (2-1) v. (3) Fresno St (2-0)
#12 Ole Miss (2-0) v. (4) Jacksonville St (2-1)
#13 LSU (2-0) v. (3) Southern Miss (2-1)
#14 North Carolina (2-0) v. (2) Tennessee (2-1)
#15 West Virginia eliminated; (2) Texas A&M (2-1) v. (3) Duke (2-0)
#16 Oregon St eliminated; (2) Creighton (2-1) v. (3) Michigan (2-0)
P-5 teams eliminated:
SEC: Florida (1-2)
ACC: NC State (0-2), Clemson (1-2)
B1G: Illinois (0-2), Nebraska (1-2), Ohio St (1-2), Indiana (1-2)
B-12: West VA (1-2), Baylor (1-2)
P-12: Cal (0-2), Ore St (0-2), AZ St (1-2)
#4 Seeds still alive:
Jax St (2-1) in Ole Miss regional
Quinnipiac (1-0) in East Carolina regional
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Update
10 of the 16 spots are now clinched, the rest get clinched today.
#1 UCLA v. (3) Loyola Marymount
(2) Creighton v. (3) Michigan
#8 Texas Tech
#9 OK State v. (2) UConn
#5 Arkansas
#12 Ole Miss
(3) Florida St.
#13 LSU
#2 Vandy
(3) Duke
#7 Louisville v. (3) Illinois St.
#10 East Carolina (2-1) v. (3) Campbell (2-0) *
* ECU needs to win twice today to advance
#6 Miss St
#11 Stanford v. (3) Fresno St
(2) Auburn
#14 North Carolina
P-5 teams eliminated:
SEC: Florida (1-2), UGA (2-2), TAMU (2-2), UT (2-2)
ACC: NC State (0-2), Clemson (1-2), Miami (2-2), GT (2-2)
B1G: Illinois (0-2), Nebraska (1-2), Ohio St (1-2), Indiana (1-2)
B-12: West VA (1-2), Baylor (1-2), TCU (2-2)
P-12: Cal (0-2), Ore St (0-2), AZ St (1-2)
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The super regionals are now set.
#1 UCLA
(3) Michigan
#8 Texas Tech
#9 OK State
#5 Arkansas
#12 Ole Miss
(3) Florida St.
#13 LSU
#2 Vandy
(3) Duke
#7 Louisville
#10 East Carolina
#6 Miss St
#11 Stanford
(2) Auburn
#14 North Carolina
ACC vs SEC – 3
Intraconference – 2 (1 B12, 1 SEC)
P12 vs SEC – 1
P12 vs B10 – 1
ACC vs other – 1
By conference:
SEC – 6 (up to 5 could advance)
ACC – 4
B12 – 2 (only 1 can advance)
P12 – 2
B10 – 1
Other – 1
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CWS:
#2 Vandy
#6 Miss St
#7 Louisville
#8 Texas Tech
(3) Michigan
(3) Florida St.
(2) Auburn (leads #14 UNC 13-3 in the 4th so I’m assuming they win)
#5 Arkansas or #12 Ole Miss (play this afternoon)
So 2 teams outside the top 32 and at least 4 of the top 8 of the advance.
At least the B10 made it. The P12 didn’t despite having the #1 seed (that’s who the B10 knocked out).
Speaking of the CWS:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2019-06-10/9-college-world-series-records-we-think-will-never-be-broken
9 CWS records that will never be broken:
1. Shortest game = 73 minutes (shortest 9 inning game = 95 minutes)
2. Most IP in one game by a single pitcher – 15 (a complete game shutout)
3. Most Ks in one game by a single pitcher – 20 (in that same game)
4. Most pitches in one game by a single pitcher – 189
5. Most runs allowed in one game by a single pitcher – 13
6. Most walks in one game by a single pitcher – 15
7. Most players with a HR in one game by a single team – 7
8. Most Ks in one inning by a single pitcher – 4
9. Most HBP in one game by a single hitter – 3
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Do we have a new B1G commissioner? The Chicago Sun-Times is reporting that Vikings COO Kevin Warren will be announced today as the successor to Jim Delany. Warren, 55, would become the first black commissioner of a Power Five conference. He’s spent 14 years with the Vikings and 21 in the NFL.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/2019/6/3/18651634/vikings-coo-kevin-warren-to-be-next-big-ten-commissioner-jim-delany?tpcc=email-sports
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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26890702/vikes-coo-big-ten-1st-black-commish
ESPN has been reporting it this morning as well. Delany said he would retire in 2020. Is he planning a long transition period or will he retire a year early?
Warren has an interesting background that seems like decent preparation but no real college experience.
Warren, 55, would become the first black commissioner of a Power 5 conference.
…
The Big Ten’s presidents and chancellors held their annual meeting Sunday, and it is believed that they approved the hiring of Delany’s successor.
…
Warren has spent 21 seasons working in the NFL, including the past 14 with the Vikings. He is the highest-ranking black executive working on the business side of an NFL franchise.
In 2015, Warren was promoted from vice president of legal affairs and chief administrative officer to chief operating officer of the Vikings. He played a key role in the development of the $1.1 billion U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, which opened in 2016 and hosted Super Bowl LII in February 2018. He was a candidate to become president of the Oakland Raiders in 2014.
In 2013, Warren was named a member of the NFL Committee on Workplace Diversity. As COO of the Vikings, he has made promoting women a top priority, with four moving into executive roles. In 2017, the Vikings named Kelly Kleine a college scouting coordinator.
Prior to joining the Vikings, Warren worked for the international law firm of Greenberg Traurig, spent two seasons with the Detroit Lions as senior vice president of business operations and general counsel from 2001 to ’03 and was vice president of player programs and legal counsel of the St. Louis Rams from 1997 to 2001.
A native of Tempe, Arizona, Warren played basketball at Penn and Grand Canyon University, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in business administration in 1986. He has an MBA from Arizona State and a juris doctorate degree from the Notre Dame School of Law.
He worked at a law firm with late SEC commissioner Mike Slive and prominent sports attorney Mike Glazier, specializing in the representation of universities charged with NCAA violations.
While attending law school at Notre Dame, he founded Kevin Warren and Associates and represented professional athletes and entertainers. Fighting Irish defensive lineman Chris Zorich was Warren’s first client, and he represented NFL players Will Shields and Lake Dawson.
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https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/ct-spt-big-ten-commissioner-announcement-jim-phillips-20190603-story.html
The Tribune’s article about it.
Jim Phillips has warned friends not to underestimate his ox-strong ties to Northwestern, stressing he has the “best” athletic director job in the nation.
And while many assumed Phillips would leave Northwestern to succeed Jim Delany as Big Ten commissioner if he were offered the post, he will be remaining in Evanston.
…
In 2015, Warren became the first African American chief operating officer of an NFL team. Shortly after, University of Minnesota President Eric Kaler appointed Warren to help select the school’s athletic director, a search that yielded Mark Coyle.
Other than that, Warren, 55, appears to have no obvious Big Ten ties.
…
Warren’s name didn’t publicly surface until Monday. He was not among the nine candidates mentioned in an April report in Sports Business Journal.
…
Most industry observers viewed Phillips as the favorite once Delany, 71, announced in March that he would step down by June 2020.
Northwestern President Morton Schapiro led the search on behalf of the Big Ten’s Council of Presidents and Chancellors, assisted by the Chicago firm Korn Ferry. It made for an interesting dynamic, considering Schapiro is one of Phillips’ best friends.
So is there a little conflict of interest with the NW president wanting to keep his AD despite that AD being a top candidate for this job?
I think the real question is how Packers and Bears fans react to a Viking taking over the B10.
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https://bigten.org/news/2019/6/4/general-warren-named-sixth-commissioner-of-big-ten-conference.aspx
It’s official. The official release is quite lengthy, but here are the highlights.
The Big Ten Conference Council of Presidents and Chancellors (COP/C) announced today that Kevin Warren has been named the sixth commissioner of the Big Ten Conference. He will start on September 16, 2019, to take full advantage of an opportunity to transition alongside Commissioner Jim Delany, who will officially step down on January 1, 2020 following a 30-year career with the conference.
…
“Kevin is a visionary leader, an experienced, successful and highly respected executive, and a skilled communicator who is uniquely positioned to continue the traditions of excellence that have become synonymous with the Big Ten Conference,” said Michael A. McRobbie, president of Indiana University and chair of the executive search committee. “Over a remarkable and pioneering career, he has developed a reputation among his peers and colleagues as an individual of enormous character, integrity, knowledge and passion, who has dedicated the majority of his professional career to the empowerment of young people and the positive impact athletics can have on improving lives and our society.”
“After an extensive national search that brought forth a wonderful group of highly qualified candidates, we were thrilled to recruit Kevin Warren to be our next commissioner,” said Michael V. Drake, president of The Ohio State University and a member of the executive search committee. “We were all impressed with Kevin’s broad experience, his extraordinary level of commitment and his vision for our collective future. My colleagues and I all look forward to working closely with him to support and advance the Big Ten. This is an important moment for our conference and for intercollegiate athletics. Kevin is the right person at the right time to lead us forward.”
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2019/06/104624/gene-smith-confident-big-tens-future-is-in-good-hands-with-new-commissioner-kevin-warren
Gene Smith talked a little about how Warren was hired.
While the search process for the new commissioner was led by the Big Ten’s university presidents, including Ohio State’s Michael Drake, Smith was invited to Washington, D.C. in April along with representatives from each of the Big Ten’s other 13 schools – including athletic director, faculty representatives and senior woman administrators – to help the presidents define what they should be looking for in the league’s sixth commissioner.
From there, the university presidents ultimately decided that Warren – who has spent the last 14 years working with the Minnesota Vikings and has been their chief operating officer since 2015 – was the candidate who best fit the profile they were looking for.
…
As for the commissioner’s job, Smith believes it could be beneficial for the Big Ten to bring in someone who has not been in the conference and has an outside perspective, especially after having the same commissioner for the last three decades.
“When you can bring in your nontraditional candidate that has a background like Kevin’s, particularly when you’re following a legend, you got to find someone that’s got those unique skill set that helps them transcend that a little bit,” Smith said. “He played college basketball, and he has a son that’s playing college football, so he’s got kind of that perspective as well, but bringing that perspective from the NFL will help, and his business background.”
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https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/23/us/university-oklahoma-best-colleges-ranking/index.html
I forgot to post this earlier. We all know that the USN&WR rankings are crap, but they matter because most high school students and their parents don’t know that. We also know that schools have been gaming the system for years, but OU recently got punished for self-reporting 2 decades of over-reporting alumni donations. As punishment, OU is not ranked at all in 2019.
U.S. News & World Report, which produces the coveted Best Colleges rankings, said Oklahoma would be listed as unranked in its 2019 edition because of the false data, which stretched back to 1999.
For the 2019 Best Colleges rankings, the university originally said its two-year alumni giving rate was 14% but later informed U.S. News that the correct number is 9.7%, the magazine said.
The false data affected Oklahoma’s placement in the national universities, best value schools, top public schools, best colleges for veterans and A-plus schools for B students rankings and lists, U.S. News said.
The rankings are based largely on data provided by the universities, such as graduation rates, class sizes and standardized test scores of students. Alumni giving rates make up 5% of the rankings formula because “giving measures student satisfaction and post-graduate engagement,” U.S. News writes in its methodology.
Last year, the University of Oklahoma was ranked 97th in the Best Colleges survey, and the school touted that placement as the first time it had been ranked among the top 100 universities and colleges.
I wonder how much that bumped their rankings over the years? I doubt this would influence expansion in any way, but it doesn’t help OU’s case.
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It would only influence expansion if OU inflated its rankings in football. I guess that it could cause the B1G to look twice, but that is it.
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https://watchstadium.com/news/college-football-bowl-game-lineup-for-next-six-seasons-to-be-announced-06-03-2019/
Some bowl news.
This season marks the final year of the current six-year bowl cycle. The changes of the new bowl cycle include the following:
SEC and Big Ten teams will alternate playing in the Las Vegas Bowl and the Belk Bowl. In 2021, ’23 and ’25, an SEC team will play in the Belk Bowl vs. an ACC team, while the Big Ten will play in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. a Pac-12 team. In 2020, ’22 and ’24, the SEC will play in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. the Pac-12, while the Big Ten will play in the Belk Bowl vs. the ACC.
The Pac-12 adds the Los Angeles Bowl at Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park against the Mountain West and is expected to play in the Independence Bowl against the ACC.
An ACC team will play a team from the American Athletic Conference in the new Boston bowl game which will be played at Fenway Park. The ACC also is replacing the Big Ten in the Holiday Bowl, where it will play the Pac-12. By adding those games, the ACC will no longer play in Detroit’s Quick Lane Bowl.
The Big Ten is dropping the Holiday Bowl to play in the Las Vegas Bowl and the Belk Bowl, and also is dropping the Armed Forces and First Responder bowls to play in the Cheez-It Bowl against the Big 12.
Big 10 (9 bowls)
2020-25 lineup:
Rose vs. Pac-12
Citrus vs. SEC
Outback vs. SEC
Las Vegas vs. Pac-12/Belk vs. ACC
Music City vs. SEC
Pinstripe vs. ACC
Redbox vs. Pac-12
Quick Lane vs. Mid-American
Cheez-It vs. Big 12
Changes: The biggest difference for the Big Ten in the new cycle is adding Las Vegas/Belk in place of the Holiday Bowl. Also, the Big Ten replaces the Pac-12 in the Cheez-It Bowl. The Big Ten will have the highest percentage of bowl games against other Power 5 opponents – eight of nine – including three bowls each vs. the SEC and Pac-12. One change among the Big Ten bowl opponents is the Quick Lane Bowl, where the Big Ten is expected to play a team from the American instead of the ACC.
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https://www.mlive.com/sports/2019/05/big-ten-ads-support-possible-expansion-of-college-football-playoff.html
I think we all missed this a few weeks ago from the B10 AD meetings. The B10 ADs may be slowly coming to favor CFP expansion. Will that influence the new commissioner? He has said he wants to take time to study the issues before speaking about them.
“It concerns me that everyone has not been included and I think there, I’ve stated this before, I think we certainly should take a look at it,” Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez said Tuesday at the Big Ten headquarters outside of Chicago during the annual spring athletic directors meetings. “I think we need to revisit the criteria that were set up to start with.”
…
“I’m open to the consideration and to looking at it and to thinking about it,” Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said Monday of playoff expansion. “Anytime our Big Ten champion is left out of the playoff … that’s something that needs to be discussed. Because I obviously believe that you go through and you win the Big Ten championship in this league, you’ve accomplished something that deserves to put you in position to play for the national championship.”
…
“My personal opinion is that expansion is probably inevitable, and I think at some level that’s a good thing,” Michigan State athletic director Bill Beekman said Tuesday. “I do think there are very real concerns about how long you make the schedule and how many games you play and there are concerns about spreading too much over two semesters.
“At the same time, it’s such a small number of teams so if you’ve got two teams playing one extra game – it’s not 300 or 50 or 60, it’s two teams playing one extra game. I think in the grand scheme of things it’s probably good for the game and good for the teams involved. If you move it from four to eight, you really pick up one extra week or game played.”
…
“I also think you need to look at the wear and tear,” Smith said. “When we won the championship in the inaugural year, I’m not so sure our guys could’ve gone another game. We played Michigan. We turned around and go to the (Big Ten) championship game and play (a 59-0 win against Wisconsin) and we turned around and played Alabama. And then you turn around and play Oregon. Most people don’t understand or respect the toll that takes on a young person’s body.”
…
“I do think there’s got to be some sort of reasonable limit to the thing,” Beekman said. “Shutting out too many of the Power Five conferences too often – I don’t think it’s wise decision making and I think eight gets you to a reasonable number. There will absolutely be pressure at some level (but) there’d be people having us play year-round. There’s always that slippery slope.”
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https://bigten.org/news/2019/6/6/mens-basketball-matchups-set-for-21st-annual-big-ten-acc-challenge.aspx
B10/ACC challenge match-ups are out.
2019 Big Ten/ACC Challenge Schedule
Monday, December 2
Miami at Illinois
Clemson at Minnesota
Tuesday, December 3
Florida State at Indiana
Iowa at Syracuse
Michigan at Louisville
Duke at Michigan State
Northwestern at Boston College
Rutgers at Pitt
Wednesday, December 4
Notre Dame at Maryland
Nebraska at Georgia Tech
Ohio State at North Carolina
Wake Forest at Penn State
Virginia at Purdue
Wisconsin at NC State
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https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/maybe-the-pac-12s-equity-plan-wasnt-as-absurd-as-we-assumed.html
According to SBJ’s Michael Smith, the P12 has gotten multiple equity bids of $750M or more for 15% of the revenue for 25 years. SBJ is behind a paywall so I’m linking to a free secondhand article about it.
From the SBJ piece:
The Pac-12 already has multiple bids of at least $750 million in hand from companies looking to become equity investors in the conference. Over the next few months, it will work with consultant Raine Group to narrow the field down to a potential partner.
…
The numbers are based on the valuation for NewCo, which is the holding company for the conference’s media rights and networks. For example, a bidder who valued NewCo at $5 billion would invest $750 million in exchange for a 15% equity stake. Sources say that the conference has received multiple bids based on a valuation of $5 billion or more. To have bids come in at those numbers is encouraging for the conference’s leaders.
Now, this doesn’t mean the P12 will agree to sell a stake. After going through the process they may decide it isn’t worth it.
Jon Wilner had some thoughts in his newsletter (will be on the website in a few days):
Key issues, as we view the situation:
• An investment of $750 million on a valuation of $5 billion would mean …15 percent ownership, which is a substantial chunk of the revenue pie.
(And if you’re okay with that, why not 20 percent? Or 25 percent?)
Remember, selling ownership reduces the size of the pie slices for the campuses.
…
• Many vital details remain unknown to the public:
What is the length of the equity partnership? When would the investor get paid? What are the exit terms/rate of return for the investor?
The $5 billion valuation and $750 million bids sound great; whether they are great depends entirely on the specifics.
• The conference needs to hit the sweet spot, with the most valuable bids coming from companies that would make the best strategic partners — companies that have experience in the media space, that could help the Pac-12 maximize the value of its rights on the open market in a few years.
If the best strategic partners submit the least-attractive bids and the most-lucrative bids come from the least-attractive partners, the end result would probably be, and certainly should be, status quo.
• Status quo is not the worst outcome, not even close.
The worst outcome is a sale that leaves the conference at a long-term disadvantage: It’s the Pac-12 taking a transactional approach that does nothing for the schools strategically over the next 10-15 years.
Overall this seems like good news (they got bids at their valuation at least), but the devil is in the details of any contract.
Quick math:
1. P12 gets $750M up front = $62.5M per school
2. New owner gets 15% of all rights = roughly $70M per year now
3. If the time window in SBJ is true, that’s for 25 years
I don’t see how those numbers work out for the P12. The upfront money is nice, but they’d be giving up $6M per year to get it. The partner would have to do wonders for the P12’s rights to make this work unless I’m not understanding the terms.
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Interesting, but I think they’ll pass, unless it’s for a significantly shorter period and a smaller %. At least until the next T1 negotiations are well on or finished. Eight years of extolling the advantage of flexibility to suddenly lock in a 25 year deal? Unlikely.
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As an example of how the situation can(and may) change on a much shorter timeline:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-07/at-t-dish-are-said-to-be-open-to-merging-satellite-tv-divisions?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_source=twitter
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I don’t see that getting anti-trust approval. For large swathes of the US, satellite is the only real pay-TV option. They can’t get cable and can’t get the high speed internet needed to stream.
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This all mostly will end up moot. Space X just launched 60 satellites. They’re planning additional launches with the ultimate goal of 12,000 satellites. https://www.space.com/spacex-launches-60-starlink-internet-satellites.html They will provide high speed internet. The dish will be able to be placed with any view of the sky as opposed to the current SW view limitation. Delivery of TV services can’t be far behind. I would think there is concern at both Direct TV and Dish.
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Maybe Musk is one of the interested tech parties? 😉
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What Elon Musk plans and what happens in a timely manner are not necessarily the same thing. Satellite internet always will have unavoidable lag, be more expensive (unless subsidized), and probably continue to have slower upload speeds. Starlink (and competing networks) will be up eventually, and then the anti-trust concern might not be there. But for now they would be creating a true monopoly in large parts of the US.
The question with streaming TV over satellite is bandwidth, especially as TV keeps upping its data (4k, 8k, etc.). Will there be potential capacity concerns if a bunch of people in one area are all trying to stream TV at once?
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Brian:
I mentioned Musk mostly in jest. However.
A) “Satellite internet always will have unavoidable lag…” is just wrong. Starlink test sats have less than 25ms lag, fast enough for the most data hungry applications (gaming). Low earth orbit transmission will be far faster than fiber optic.
B)“…be more expensive (unless subsidized),…” the entire premise of SpaceX is that launch/delivery costs can be many orders of magnitude cheaper. Also, name a modern technical advance that didn’t benefit from some form of subsidy, be it general research government funds at universities, or direct funding be it from government or private ventures.
C) “and probably continue to have slower upload speeds.” See A)
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A. Yes the lag is less for lower satellites, but it is still unavoidably longer than what it has to be via cable/fiber optics/wireless. Whether that lag matters depends on the user. And that’s just distance lag, not the total latency of the internet using satellites. Capacity lag could also be an issue.
B. Cheaper rocket launches (dozens of them) and tens of thousands of satellites (they need to be replaced regularly) are still a lot more expensive than the ground-based infrastructure. Musk can claim it will be cheap, but he claims a lot of things that turn out to be false.
C. Upload speeds not only have distance lag, they have power issues. Again this is much less for lower satellites, but still unavoidable. You also again face potential capacity issues as one satellite can only handle so much uploading simultaneously.
And don’t forget that some scientists are upset about the tens of thousands of satellites Starlink and their competitors will be launching. They are already hurting astronomy and only a few have been launched.
And while each satellite has a low risk of hitting a person after re-entry, it’s not zero. SpaceX estimates it at 1:18,300 per satellite for a human casualty (3 or 4 pounds hitting you at terminal velocity). With multiple networks of such satellites going up, we could easily see 10,000+ of them bringing the chance of a serious injury close to 100%.
And on top of all of this, 5G will be here before Starlink is complete. I’m not convinced there are enough people that want satellite internet and can afford it to make even one LEO constellation viable, let alone the multiple versions proposed now.
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Brian:
A) No, speed of light through glass fiber is 2/3 or less the speed through the vacuum of space.
B) Reusing a booster just three times will mean a launch cost of under half a million $ per satellite.
How much continuing cost involved in buying, building, leasing ground infrastructure? We’re a decade or more into the “promised” availability and benefits of fiber. Large areas a few hundred miles from me still have only dial up.
“They are already hurting astronomy and only a few have been launched.”
BS. They haven’t reached their altitude yet and haven’t spread out. We aren’t going to have freight trains of satellites circulating the entire earth. And they only reflect while illuminated by the sun. Shortly after sundown you can see satellites going over, and then rather quickly they disappear as the go into the earths shadow. (You’ll never see one at midnight, no matter size or number) There are currently 1-2 thousands of active satellites and many times more dead but still orbiting. After this first test group the fully functional ones will be completely demisable, and will de-orbit themselves using onboard propulsion that will also be used to try to avoid collisions with current space junk.
“Musk can claim it will be cheap, but he claims a lot of things that turn out to be false.”
Are you including setting too aspirational timelines? I agree he does that, but I don’t resent it or think it makes his (multiple) projects false (just not yet realized). Or his taking Tesla private at. 420? Did everybody miss the 420 allusion (drug humor)? Not the first time he’s used language that business folk simply seem to not get/like.
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ccrider55,
“A) No, speed of light through glass fiber is 2/3 or less the speed through the vacuum of space.”
The distance through space is a lot more than the distance through the fiber. Remember also that Starlink will have ground stations that connect to the internet, so the land portion isn’t gone in his system.
“B) Reusing a booster just three times will mean a launch cost of under half a million $ per satellite.”
They need to launch something like 1500 satellites per year forever (satellite’s life is 5-7 years according to SpaceX). They also have to build/buy those 1500 satellites annually. Then they have to operate the system.
“How much continuing cost involved in buying, building, leasing ground infrastructure?”
I don’t know. Look at Comcast’s financial statements. Somewhere in there they probably say.
“We’re a decade or more into the “promised” availability and benefits of fiber. Large areas a few hundred miles from me still have only dial up.”
There’s no financial incentive to do it. Rural people won’t pay what it actually costs to run cable/fiber to them and the subsidies only go so far. So explain to me how poverty stricken people in third world countries are going to pay for this. Satellite internet exists now and rural Americans refuse to pay for it despite it costing as little as $50/month.
“BS. They haven’t reached their altitude yet and haven’t spread out.”
That’s the complaint. They are still visible to amateurs, let alone scientific telescopes. Astronomers hate all light and EM pollution and they complain about all sources of it.
https://aas.org/media/press-releases/aas-issues-position-statement-satellite-constellations
The AAS issued a position paper and is working with the companies to try to reduce the impact. They also are launching a study of how big the impact will be/is.
The American Astronomical Society notes with concern the impending deployment of very large constellations of satellites into Earth orbit. The number of such satellites is projected to grow into the tens of thousands over the next several years, creating the potential for substantial adverse impacts to ground- and space-based astronomy. These impacts could include significant disruption of optical and near-infrared observations by direct detection of satellites in reflected and emitted light; contamination of radio astronomical observations by electromagnetic radiation in satellite communication bands; and collision with space-based observatories.
The AAS recognizes that outer space is an increasingly available resource with many possible uses. However, the potential for multiple large satellite constellations to adversely affect both each other and the study of the cosmos is becoming increasingly apparent, both in low Earth orbit and beyond.
The AAS is actively working to assess the impacts on astronomy of large satellite constellations before their numbers rise further. Only with thorough and quantitative understanding can we properly assess the risks and identify appropriate mitigating actions. The AAS desires that this be a collaborative effort among its members, other scientific societies, and other space stakeholders including private companies. The AAS will support and facilitate the work by relevant parties to understand fully and minimize the impact of large satellite constellations on ground- and space-based astronomy.
“We aren’t going to have freight trains of satellites circulating the entire earth. And they only reflect while illuminated by the sun.”
“Shortly after sundown you can see satellites going over, and then rather quickly they disappear as the go into the earths shadow. (You’ll never see one at midnight, no matter size or number)”
They still are there, blocking stars and reflecting light from non-solar sources. Eyes don’t notice them, but scientific instruments do.
“There are currently 1-2 thousands of active satellites and many times more dead but still orbiting.”
And astronomers don’t like them but accept them as a fait accompli. They do pressure space groups to reduce space debris and de-orbit satellites quicker.
“After this first test group the fully functional ones will be completely demisable, and will de-orbit themselves using onboard propulsion that will also be used to try to avoid collisions with current space junk.”
If they work. If they don’t get hit by debris. With thousands of them up there, there will be lots of failures (look at the history of satellites).
“Are you including setting too aspirational timelines?”
Yes, because they are false statements. It’s easy to do the same with financial statements about “affordable” this or “cheap” that.
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“It says that at most, 0.01 per cent of the telescope’s pixels will be affected by Starlink satellites.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2205639-worlds-largest-sky-survey-calls-spacex-starlink-a-nuisance/amp/
It does say others may be more affected than they will be.
I say the future of astronomy is space based (25+ years of Hubble?) Someone is making it cost effective to put many and larger telescopes up there. If they prefer paying a quarter to half a billion per launch, who am I to argue.
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ccrider55,
““It says that at most, 0.01 per cent of the telescope’s pixels will be affected by Starlink satellites.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2205639-worlds-largest-sky-survey-calls-spacex-starlink-a-nuisance/amp/
It does say others may be more affected than they will be.”
“LSST’s frequent imaging of the same region of sky will be a strength, providing enough uncontaminated images to reject the images that contain satellite trails or other anomalies,” the statement says. It says that at most, 0.01 per cent of the telescope’s pixels will be affected by Starlink satellites. “For LSST, Starlink satellites will be a nuisance rather than a real problem.”
We emphasize that the impact of satellite constellations on other telescopes that have wider fields, longer exposures, and/or less sophisticated data processing pipelines may be much more significant. For a discussion of broader impact of satellites on research in astronomy, please see a statement on satellite constellations by the International Astronomical Union, which LSST fully endorses, at https://www.iau.org/news/announcements/detail/ann19035/
Most telescopes don’t do that same thing, so the problem is larger. From the IAU statement:
The scientific concerns are twofold. Firstly, the surfaces of these satellites are often made of highly reflective metal, and reflections from the Sun in the hours after sunset and before sunrise make them appear as slow-moving dots in the night sky. Although most of these reflections may be so faint that they are hard to pick out with the naked eye, they can be detrimental to the sensitive capabilities of large ground-based astronomical telescopes [2], including the extreme wide-angle survey telescopes currently under construction [3]. Secondly, despite notable efforts to avoid interfering with radio astronomy frequencies, aggregate radio signals emitted from the satellite constellations can still threaten astronomical observations at radio wavelengths. Recent advances in radio astronomy, such as producing the first image of a black hole or understanding more about the formation of planetary systems, were only possible through concerted efforts in safeguarding the radio sky from interference.
1. Don’t discount 0.01% of pixels. The LSST has 3.2 billion pixels, so that would be up to 320,000 pixels per image. Many discoveries start as just a few pixels at most.
2. Radio wave reflections will be a serious issue since astronomers often look for very weak signals.
3. I’m not saying this is a terrible thing, I merely pointed out that astronomers were complaining.
“I say the future of astronomy is space based (25+ years of Hubble?)”
Partially, sure. X-ray, UV and IR space telescopes have been around for a long time for good reasons. But you have to sacrifice mirror size and maintainability to go to space.
The Webb telescope is planned to replace Hubble though Webb is purely in the IR. But Webb development started in 1996 with launch planned for 2007. It was redesigned in 2005 and is now slated for 2021. Hubble had a 2.4m meter. Webb has 18 hexagonal mirrors that combined to make one mirror 6.5m in diameter. Webb is expected to cost $10B and last at least 5 years (up to 10). It will orbit at the L2 Lagrangian point so it is not serviceable.
For comparison, the Keck observatory in Hawaii has had 2 10-m telescopes since 1996. Both combined cost under $200M through FY2012. Being in space avoids atmospheric distortion (as well as absorption), but adaptive optics make Keck images at least as sharp as those from Hubble in the visible spectrum. There’s a reason we aren’t planning to launch another giant visible spectrum telescope yet.
Those sorts of numbers make land-based astronomy the winner in the visible spectrum for the foreseeable future.
“Someone is making it cost effective to put many and larger telescopes up there.”
Are they? The numbers from NASA et all sure don’t look cost effective to me.
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Those are some of the odd things. Supposedly the long commitment was the P12’s idea. Presumably they wanted to make sure the partner valued the P12 and wasn’t just chasing profits. They also chose to bump it up from 10% to 15%. And the whole point would be to get money now to tide the schools over until the new deal is signed.
As to flexibility, that wouldn’t change with this deal. The P12 would still have all their rights available in 2025. They’d just need to split the revenue with the new partner.
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Musk can claim it will be cheap, but he claims a lot of things that turn out to be false.
Very true. According to Satellite Today however in addition to Amazon there are 8 other companies planning to launch satellites. I would think competition would help keep prices down.
And don’t forget that some scientists are upset about the tens of thousands of satellites Starlink and their competitors will be launching. They are already hurting astronomy and only a few have been launched.
I was unaware of this would you please cite the source of this study. The best I could find is scientists are concerned that they might cause a problem.
And while each satellite has a low risk of hitting a person after re-entry, it’s not zero. SpaceX estimates it at 1:18,300 per satellite for a human casualty (3 or 4 pounds hitting you at terminal velocity). With multiple networks of such satellites going up, we could easily see 10,000+ of them bringing the chance of a serious injury close to 100%.
Not close. https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/aerospace/satellites/the-odds-that-one-of-spacexs-internet-satellites-will-hit-someone.
According to Cosmos magazine: “Every year, the Earth is hit by about 6100 meteors large enough to reach the ground, or about 17 every day, research has revealed.”
And on top of all of this, 5G will be here before Starlink is complete. I’m not convinced there are enough people that want satellite internet and can afford it to make even one LEO constellation viable, let alone the multiple versions proposed now.
According to Extreme Tech: “The UN estimates there are 4 billion people under served by existing internet access options. These companies are thinking Global.
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Or the prices will be high in an attempt to recover their capital investments.
It wasn’t a study, it was astronomers saying the satellites are reflecting light (and any light pollution hurts astronomy). They also expressed concerns about the future as more satellites go up. Musk said they hope to reduce the impact over time as the satellites reach their final orbit. He also discussed making future versions less reflective.
It’s SpaceX’s number, not mine. It’s in their FCC filing. The article you linked even says it.
When SpaceX plugged the numbers into NASA’s Debris Assessment Software, the package calculated that there was, at most, a 1 in 18,200 chance that an individual satellite in its LEO orbital shells would hurt or kill someone.
Now add in all the satellites from the other constellations and that number could approach 1.
There are satellite internet companies now and very few people choose to sign up.
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Alan:
Hopefully not too soon, but why no intentional walk with 2 ccrider55out, man on second, and best hitter at the plate?
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cc – one of many inexplicable decisions during those two games. Every year, we scratch our heads regarding many of Mainieri’s decisions. Many think LSU deserves better and that we should be winning more. No one will ever go on a championship run like Skip did with 5 CWS titles in a 10 year span, but who in the country has a better resume than Mainieri over the his twelve years at LSU?
LSU Baseball under Paul Mainieri (2007-Present):
LSU Record (12 seasons): 551-229-3 (.706)
NCAA National Champions (1) – 2009
NCAA National Runners-Up (1) – 2017
College World Series Appearances (5) – 2008, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2017
NCAA Super Regional Champions (5) – 2008, 2009, 2013, 2015, 2017
NCAA Regional Champions (8) – 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019
NCAA Tournament National Seeds (8) – 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017
Southeastern Conference Champions (4) – 2009, 2012, 2015, 2017
SEC Tournament Champions (6) – 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2017
SEC Western Division Champions (6) – 2008, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2017
The 2019 squad was certainly one of LSU’s most talented, entering the season ranked No. 1 by most rankings/polls. It was also one of the most injured and most quiet with no real vocal leaders.
That said, its tough to see four SEC schools in the CWS with LSU not being one of them. 2020 looks promising. LSU was able to hang onto signees CF Maurice Hampton (1st round talent in baseball & top 100 recruit in football) and SS Cade Doughty (2nd-3rd round talent).
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https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/26948342/big-12-commish-all-transfers-sit-one-year
B12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby thinks all transfers should sit out 1 year with no exceptions.
He may be right that all sports should be treated the same
Bowlsby spoke on a commissioner’s panel with SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and ACC commissioner John Swofford at the annual National Association of Collegiate Directors of Athletics convention. When the transfer portal topic came up, Bowlsby said he thought it was a “colossal mistake” for the NCAA to set different transfer guidelines for different sports.
Football, men’s and women’s basketball, baseball and men’s ice hockey transfers must sit out one year unless they apply to the NCAA for and are granted a waiver for immediate eligibility. Meanwhile, student-athletes in all other sports are allowed immediate eligibility without penalty, provided they only transfer once.
“There’s a foundational mistake in all this that we ought to seek to fix,” Bowlsby told the assembled group, adding if he was a “benevolent dictator” he would enact a rule that would make all transfers sit out one year.
“There’s a rule that treats different sports different ways and we should have had a rule that treated all the sports the same way,” Bowlsby told ESPN after the panel ended. “We would have been much better off if there was always a transfer residence requirement in all sports. Everyone sits out and gets acclimated and then have a chance to get a year back by graduating.”
…
Bowlsby said he has not brought up his ideas at meetings on the topic, and he’s not necessarily pushing for change — but he believes it must be considered.
“The problem is, what’s a good rule for some is not a good rule for all when you have 350 institutions in Division I that are all trying to do what’s best for their institutions,” Bowlsby said. “It’s very difficult, if not impossible, to come up with a plan that is mutually impactful and favorable for everyone. What’s a great rule for 100 schools is a terrible rule for the other 250, so the viability of those kinds of ideas — it’s a big change, but I think that’s where change has to start. We have to think about it at its foundation and design something that works better than what we have.”
Swofford said he believes the transfer portal is working well, but there is a need to find a sweet spot between roster management for coaches and empowering student-athletes to make decisions that are best for them. He isn’t sure a blanket rule requiring everyone to sit out a year is the best option.
“I’m not sure, in the whole scheme of things, we should eliminate the opportunity for unique situations to be addressed,” Swofford told ESPN. “But if you’re going to do that, it needs to be … the outcomes of those exceptions need to be consistent, and that’s the trick. If it can’t be consistent, then maybe in my opinion we do fall back to one year across the board because it is academically sound. But I’d hate to see unique circumstances totally eliminated from the discussion when they’re merited, but that puts a lot of pressure on the system to be consistent year to year.”
Bowlsby believes requiring everyone to sit out a year would end up decreasing the number of student-athletes looking to transfer.
“You’d still have transfers, but you’d have transfers that are less purely for athletic reasons and I think it would be more difficult to transfer,” Bowlsby said. “People would think hard about whether they wanted to transfer if they had to sit out a year. They would think about whether or not they were planning to graduate and, in doing so, get their year back. I think it would cause them to think more about their initial choice of schools at the outset. I think all those are good things.”
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https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/soccer/fsu-announces-plans-to-privatize-its-athletics-department/ar-AACBgcN
FSU’s BoT voted to privatize their AD in order to shield it from public record requests. What does this mean for things like faculty oversight of athletics? Should they still be eligible for the NCAA if they are not part of the school any more? Should boosters ever have that much power?
Florida State University is privatizing its athletics department, shielding it from public-records requests and treating it like a corporation rather than a traditional state university department.
The school touted the move as an opportunity to streamline the relationship between the athletics department and Seminoles Booster, Inc., the fundraising arm of the athletics department. The change alters a set-up that gave a booster group an unusually prominent role in fundraising for an athletic department, granting considerable power to a third-party group.
FSU’s board of trustees voted Friday to create Florida State University Athletics Association, a direct-support organization that will run the athletics department.
Seminole Boosters, Inc., signed a memorandum stating its chair will report to the FSU athletics director and the FSU AD will serve on several Seminole Boosters’ committees.
The University of Florida and University of Central Florida have long operated their athletics departments as direct-support organizations. FSU officials said they had discussed the move for years and saw it as a chance to make their relationship with Seminole Boosters clearer and more efficient.
The switch will also give FSU athletics all the privileges of a private corporation, including declining any public-records requests while still preserving its sovereign immunity. The immunity clause for state agencies caps any jury judgments or settlements reached by the athletics department at $200,000. Any further settlements would have to be approved by the state Legislature to avoid undue burden on taxpayers, a privilege not enjoyed by traditional corporations.
The newly formed FSUAA board will be composed of five voting members, including the FSU president as chair of the board, Florida State’s NCAA faculty athletics representative and the chair of Seminole Boosters, Inc. The athletics director will serve as the CEO of FSUAA and have a direct reporting line to the university president.
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Does this means the athletes are employees of the athletic department? Do the usual government regulations regarding employees apply, e. g., minimum wage?
The idea of enhancing the influence of the Seminole Boosters, Inc., and reducing faculty oversight is anathema to the NCAA. The University of Illinois got into trouble some years back for lack of oversight and control of its AD.
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https://www.si.com/college-football/2019/06/11/florida-state-athletics-department-direct-support-organization
Here is what SI’s sports law expert wrote about the issue.
As detailed by Iliana Limón Romero in the Orlando Sentinel, Florida State University’s athletic department intends to become a so-called “direct support organization” (DSO) under Florida law.
By doing so, FSU would better coordinate its athletic department activities with Seminole Boosters Inc., which is also a DSO. The boosters’ entity raises money from the private sector and then uses those proceeds to fund intercollegiate athletics, specifically athletic scholarships.
…
Understanding a DSO and DSO athletic department and how they blend elements of public administration and private enterprise
[long explanation]
DSO athletic departments can take advantage of sovereign immunity
…
Stated more bluntly, while a DSO athletic department may be more separate from its university than are other athletic departments and their universities, the DSO athletic department is still bound by the university.
DSO athletic departments enjoy the power to deny public records requests
…
As detailed in Chapter 1004.28, a DSO is not entirely immune from public record requests. It is potentially obligated to share a number of records with the public. They include the annual auditor’s report, any records related to the expenditure of state funds, and any financial records related to the expenditure of private funds for travel.
…
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Brian – In Louisiana, the Tiger Athletic Foundation is set up as a private charitable foundation to support LSU Athletics. While separate from the athletic department, TAF coordinates with and raises money for the benefit of LSU Athletics just like any other foundation.
About 20 years ago, the legislature passed a law, allowing TAF to raise money for an addition to Tiger Stadium. TAF raised the money, picked the architects and construction firms, and didn’t have to comply with Louisiana bid and procurement laws. After the addition was built, TAF gifted it to the athletic department. That is the way every other athletic construction project has worked since that time. The smaller state schools with athletic construction needs usually go through the capital outlay process with the legislature, as they don’t have the fundraising prowess.
Guys – is that the way P-5 schools pay for construction projects in your state?
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Alan,
I have no problem with a foundation taking donations to give to the AD. Lots of places do that. My concern is with the AD legally separating itself from the school in any way, shape or form. Yes athletics and academics need to be kept apart administratively, but legal separation of this sort seems like the start of a slippery slope to me.
I’m also not convinced the AD needs to be “better aligned” with boosters than they already are in a world of $100 handshakes. Reducing transparency as the money involved increases is a bad idea.
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This 👆
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IIRC Florida U and UCF are already set up that way.
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Click to access June12OverallDi.pdf
Current Directors Cup standings with just baseball left:
1. Stanford – as always
2. MI
9. PSU
10. OSU
15. WI
18. MN
33. IN
35. IA
36. UMD
42. IL
43. NW
44. MSU
49. NE
54. PU
81. RU
The good news for RU is that there are worse P5s everywhere but the SEC:
87. BC
88. WSU
92. KSU
131. Pitt
Lowest SEC member: 59. Ole Miss
If RU can keep up even this low level of success, that’s progress for them (they’ve been > 100 all but 1 year since joining the B10).
The P12 kills it in the spring.
Spring points only:
Stanford – 657.25
UCLA – 603.50
USC – 593.25
(3 more > 300)
Top 3 in other P5s (spring only):
SEC – 509.50, 412.50, 394.25 (3 more > 300)
B12 – 601.25, 380.50, 334.75 (1 more > 300)
ACC – 467.50, 433.50, 431.50 (2 more > 300)
B10 – 362.00, 346.00, 263.00
The B10 excels in winter instead.
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Brian – of the schools in the top 20, only Michigan and Florida State are still alive in baseball. If you want to compile your school’s final score by adding in any baseball points, use this guide:
100 CWS champ – 1st
90 CWS runner-up – 2nd
83 CWS final four -3rd
78 win one CWS game – 5th
73 0-2 in CWS – 7th
64 Super regional – 9th
50 Regional finals – 17th
37.5 3rd place regional – 33rd
25 0-2 in Regional
For the final standings, the top 5 won’t change. Florida State will jump to 6th, even if it goes 0-2 in the CWS. UCLA will remain at #7 with 1056.5 and Virginia drops to 8th. Duke jumps from 12th to 9th with 1001. UNC jumps from 13th to 10th with 987. LSU jumps from 14th to 11th with 986.83. Ohio State falls from 10th to 12th with 986. Penn State falls to 13th. Kentucky falls to 14th. A&M jumps from 17th to 15th with 921.25. Wisconsin and Notre Dame slide down a spot to 16 and 17, respectively. Cal climbs up one spot to #18 with 835.75. Arizona St jumps from #22 to #19 with 821.0. Minnesota will be sitting at #20 unless Arkansas makes it to the CWS championship game.
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/at-least-six-college-basketball-programs-will-be-notified-of-major-ncaa-violations-by-this-summer/
At least 6 hoops programs will get an NCAA notice of major violations this summer.
Stan Wilcox, NCAA vice president for regulatory affairs, said two high-profile programs would receive notices of allegations by early July.
The remaining four would be rolled out later in the summer in what was described as a wave of NCAA investigations meant to clean up major-college basketball.
“There’s even another group of cases that we’re still working on,” Wilcox said. “The main thing is that we’re up and ready. We’re moving forward and you’ll see consequences.”
…
He would not name any of the schools involved.
“I would just say that it’s clear when you look at the number of cases that were listed by the Southern District of New York, those numbers are more than likely be reflected in the number of cases that are going to be moving forward,” said Wilcox, a former Florida State athletic director and Notre Dame basketball player.
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Actual realignment news!!!
UMKC back to the Summit.
https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/umkc-set-for-return-to-summit-league-in-2020-21
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The WAC really just needs to die.
It has 9 members now. UMKC is leaving in 2020. CSU-Bakersfield is leaving in 2020 (Big West). Dixie State (in Utah) will join in 2020.
Chicago State being in the WAC will make even less sense with UMKC gone. All the other schools are in the SW and Washington and much larger. Will they look to move next? Just a few years ago they considered dropping down to a lower division or dropping sports entirely.
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An article behind the ESPN+ paywall discusses the easiest and toughest non-conference schedules.
Easiest:
1. Baylor – Aug. 31 vs. Stephen F. Austin, Sept. 7 vs. UTSA, Sept. 21 at Rice
2. Indiana – Aug. 31 vs. Ball State in Indianapolis, Sept. 7 vs. Eastern Illinois, Sept. 21 vs. UConn
3. Illinois – Aug. 31 vs. Akron, Sept. 7 at UConn, Sept. 14 vs. Eastern Michigan
4. Arkansas – Aug. 31 vs. Portland State, Sept. 14 vs. Colorado State, Sept. 21 vs. San Jose State, Nov. 9 vs. Western Kentucky
5. Kentucky – Aug. 31 vs. Toledo, Sept. 7 vs. Eastern Michigan, Nov. 23 vs. UT Martin, Nov. 30 vs. Louisville
6. Alabama – Aug. 31 vs. Duke in Atlanta, Sept. 7 vs. New Mexico State, Sept. 21 vs. Southern Miss, Nov. 23 vs. Western Carolina
7. Ohio State – Aug. 31 vs. Florida Atlantic, Sept. 7 vs. Cincinnati, Sept. 21 vs. Miami (OH)
8. Penn State – Aug. 31 vs. Idaho, Sept. 7 vs. Buffalo, Sept. 14 vs. Pittsburgh
9. Tennessee – Aug. 31 vs. Georgia State, Sept. 7 vs. BYU, Sept. 14 vs. Chattanooga, Nov. 2 vs. UAB
10. Rutgers – Aug. 30 (Friday) vs. UMass, Sept. 21 vs. Boston College, Oct. 26 vs. Liberty
B1G – 5, SEC – 4, B-12 – 1
Toughest:
1. Stanford – Aug. 31 vs. Northwestern, Sept. 14 at UCF, Nov. 30 vs. Notre Dame
2. Duke – Aug. 31 vs. Alabama in Atlanta, Sept. 7 vs. North Carolina A&T, Sept. 14 at Middle Tennessee, Nov. 9 vs. Notre Dame.
3. USC – Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State, Sept. 14 at BYU, Oct. 12 at Notre Dame
4. UCLA – Aug. 29 (Thursday) at Cincinnati, Sept. 7 vs. San Diego State, Sept. 14 vs. Oklahoma
5. Pitt – Sept. 7 vs. Ohio, Sept. 14 at Penn State, Sept. 21 vs. UCF, Sept. 28 vs. Delaware
6. Florida State – Aug. 31 vs. Boise State in Jacksonville, Fla., Sept. 7 vs. UL Monroe, Nov. 16 vs. Alabama State, Nov. 30 at Florida
7. Michigan – Aug. 31 vs. Middle Tennessee, Sept. 7 vs. Army, Oct. 26 vs. Notre Dame
8. Clemson – Sept. 7 vs. Texas A&M, Sept. 21 vs. Charlotte, Nov. 2 vs. Wofford, Nov. 30 at South Carolina
9. Purdue – Aug. 30 (Friday) at Nevada, Sept. 7 vs. Vanderbilt, Sept. 14 vs. TCU
10. Georgia – Sept. 7 vs. Murray State, Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas State, Sept. 21 vs. Notre Dame, Nov. 30 at Georgia Tech
ACC – 4, P-12 – 3, B1G – 2, SEC – 1
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Yes, OSU’s OOC schedule is undeniably weak this year but there are some reasons for it.
1. TCU converted our home and home series to the one-off “neutral” site game we played last year. The second game of that series was supposed to be this season. On very short notice it’s nearly impossible to find a top opponent. Miami (OH) was the replacement. FAU, UC and TCU wouldn’t be bad.
2. OSU has 5 road B10 games this season (IN, NE, NW, RU, UM) and plays WI, NE and NW as crossovers.
The assistant AD in charge of scheduling said it was a deliberate plan to soften the OOC schedule this year to balance the difficult B10 schedule.
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Michigan advances to the CWS Championship Series with a 15-3 win over Texas Tech.
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I’m not a lip reader, generally. I certainly can read that pitchers though. I’m now a Vandy fan. How can he not be ejected?
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Should have put a few bucks down on Mich when they won the regional.
Espn: “Michigan had 200-1 odds to win the College World Series before the start of the NCAA tournament, per Caesars Sportsbook. Now the Wolverines are headed to the finals. Jimmy Kerr hit two homers to help Michigan cruise 15-3 over Texas Tech in a four-hour affair.”
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The first B10 team in the championship in over 50 years (1966). Oddly the B10 has only lost a championship once, winning 6 titles in 7 appearances.
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Not that anyone ccomes here for realignment news anymor, but it appears UCONN is moving back to the Big East.
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-u-conn-move-to-the-big-east-inevitable-151200471.html
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If Connecticut can’t cut it in the American, does this mean it’s essentially given up on joining a P5 league? Football is the be-all and end-all of such conferences, after all.
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Yes, I think this is a tacit surrender. They’ve finally realized they can’t keep spending this much to chase a pipe dream. It probably also means that they believe no major realignment will happen during this upcoming round of TV deals.
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It probably also means that they believe no major realignment will happen during this upcoming round of TV deals.
Either that or they don’t see themselves as an option for the Big 12 and don’t see any hope of the ACC expanding/needing teams until the 2030s. Sounds like there was little excitement for UCONN backers in the AAC and something had to be done or they would end up completely irrelevant by the time they would want to be a viable candidate.
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Brett McMurphy tweet: “With UConn’s Olympic sports leaving American for Big East in 2020, sources told @Stadium UConn will not drop football program or drop down to FCS. It will remain in FBS. Where – as a football-only member in AAC, MAC or C-USA or FBS independent – is to be determined, sources said”
The MAC has been down this road before and 13 was a pain. With 0 chance of getting UConn’s other teams, I see no reason they would do it without a bribe. CUSA already has 14 football teams and UConn is way out of their footprint. Unless they want to try 3 pods of 5 it makes no sense to me. Maybe the AAC keeps them, at least until they can find another full member. 12 football members is helpful and only 11 hoops teams is good too (full double round robin).
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Some key points from the Yahoo article:
Sources told Yahoo Sports that the AAC will not take UConn as a football-only member. UConn has been historically bad on the field and holds little resonance off of it. Independence would likely end up as UConn’s best option.
…
In terms of exit fees, AAC bylaws say that any school which departs would be obligated to pay approximately $10 million. Historically, those numbers end up being negotiated.
For the AAC, the next likely move would be to follow the model they have with Navy as a football-only and add a school like Army or Air Force. Then they’d follow up that move and add a basketball power like they recently did with Wichita State. (VCU would be the most logical target there.)
The other option would be to add a member in all sports, but there’s no obvious candidate who could add value in both basketball and football.
I agree that long term the AAC wouldn’t want UConn’s football team. I could see them potentially keeping them as a bridge until they can line up a replacement, though. Making Army-Navy an AAC conference game would be interesting.
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This has been a long time coming. My guess is that, absent a miracle, UConn will drop its football program within a few years. The Huskies lose a lot of money on football every year and there is no apparent way to stem the damage. This also reflects on UConn’s attempt to claim a status as the 6th borough of NYC. Virtually no one in the NYC market will care about this, except to the extent that UConn bball will be playing St. John’s and Seton Hall.
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I don’t know about that. The state paid a lot of money to build that stadium and UConn is the primary tenant. UConn might not be allowed to drop football. I think they are likely to trim the team’s budget and try independence for a while. They might drop to I-AA in a few years.
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I am struck by the fact that no public school in New England nowadays seems able to maintain a sports tradition over time. Of course, I graduated from the despised Northeastern University, and that skews my impressions. The Ivies on the other hand do quite well, although at a different level.
Is this due to demographic shift? The native white population is in decline, and they are the ones with the school traditions. If your population is becoming ever more immigrant, and those immigrants come from cultures with no tradition of college athletics, moreover cultures committed to soccer, is it possible to maintain college athletics.
That’s one poorly drafted sentence. I hope it’s intelligible.
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How many of them ever had a major sports tradition? There are few large schools in New England to begin with – they’ve always tended to a lot of smaller (and private) schools. That makes it harder. They also tended not to chase elite athletics (see the Ivies dropping down and RU not trying). Are you counting PSU football? SU hoops?
The demographics of the true New England states are bad for athletics because the states are all small and slowly growing. PA, NJ and NY add numbers, but are highly recruited. Nowadays hoops recruiting is national so demographics don’t matter much at the top level. If any New England school gets the right coach they could be elite in hoops (Calhoun at UConn, Boeheim at SU, Calipari at UMass). UConn’s 2 hoops teams were nothing before Calhoun and Geno.
Football is tougher because of the money involved. You need a large fan base that spends and donates money, and as I pointed out New England lacks those large state schools. The demographics also hurt them in terms of fewer in-state elite players, but RU could be really good if they could keep all the NJ players. But with national recruiting and RU’s decades of athletic neglect, that’s an uphill battle.
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Neither Penn State nor Syracuse is in New England, and Syracuse is a private school. PA, NJ, and NY are not New England. New England, by a definition going back hundreds of years, is Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Vermont.
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Your sentence is well worded. But I think that New England’s particular immigrant mix, particularly that which is West Afro-infused (Brazilian, Cape Verdean, Dominican) may not be so diametrically repelled by football. Certainly they will have the size/speed that a more meso-american latino (the Central American countries) may not have – instead to lure them away from soccer may be similar to Chicago African-American youth having to be lured back from basketball. And if Somalia had been a west african country similar to Ghana, Nigeria or Cote Ivoire, Maine would be prep football hotbed by now.
That said peak Yankee Conference was probably the mid 1980s to mid 1990, when UCONN had a quarterback Mike Buck and all of the state schools (Maine, UMass, UConn, UNH-Durham, URI) were competitive. This during a period when Joe Pa got a lot of vowels to join him at State College and ND would cherry pick many.
Also with the exception of Geno and Jim, most successful coaches head out the first chance they get for better weather, more fertile recruiting grounds and less opressive taxes, so at a school like BC, its always a rebuild cycle every x years.
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Here is one analysis of the financial status of UConn sports, which had the largest deficit of any school in the country. The state is also in financial trouble. Joining the B1G will help a little bit, but the athletic dept. will not come anywhere close to solvency. The issue is how long UConn will be able to sustain $20 or $30 million annual deficits, with no solution sight. Maybe they will carry an unloved football program indefinitely. Maybe not. https://www.ctnewsjunkie.com/archives/entry/20190121_big-time_uconn_athletics_are_bleeding_money_are_they_all_worth_it/
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I don’t dispute they are struggling, but so are many schools. And while we call them deficits, it really isn’t because the schools are paying for the rest. Since athletics are part of the educational mission, it’s not unreasonable to expect the school to pay part of the cost. The question is where to draw the line. Every AAC school is subsidizing more than $18M per year right now. So are most MWC schools, many CUSA schools, etc. Delaware is paying $33.1M for I-AA sports.
The return to the BE may save some costs. You can also blame the state and Rentschler Field.
https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-football/hc-sp-rentschler-field-uconn-football-east-hartford-development-20190224-dbvunnqb2fhnfgyiwqeaoscqnm-story.html
That lack of events, coupled with UConn’s rapidly declining home attendance, has left Rentschler on shaky ground financially. Since assuming control of the building in 2013, CRDA has slashed expenses and drawn the venue closer to sustainable self-sufficiency. Even so, Rentschler loses money most years, regularly triggering a clause that requires UConn to subsidize the first $250,000 of the building’s deficit.
Between $172,000 per game in rent, a $3-per-ticket subcharge and the $250,000 subsidy, Rentschler collected more than $1.5 million from UConn in 2018, while also reaping all revenue from parking and concessions.
The state won’t let UConn move big home games to bigger stadiums for more money and they make UConn pay for the stadium, further increasing the deficit.
https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/
5 biggest deficits according to USA Today:
1. UConn – $42.2M = 51% of budget
2. JMU – $39.1M = 81%
3. UMass – $37.2M = 78%
4. AF – $33.3M = 56%
5. RU – $33.1M = 34%
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I’m aware of that, but the usual definition doesn’t make a lot of sense to me with your argument and I’ve heard people lump in surrounding areas.
“I am struck by the fact that no public school in New England nowadays seems able to maintain a sports tradition over time.”
1. Most of the New England states are small (4 of the 10 smallest) and slowly growing or even shrinking in population. We’re talking fewer than 15,000,000 people, or less than 5% of the US population.
“The native white population is in decline, and they are the ones with the school traditions.”
2. New England contains 3 of the 4 whitest states in the US. The most diverse state is 67% white and the region is over 83% white. A lack of white residents isn’t the problem. A lack of large cities or large total populations is their problem.
3. The only public I-A schools in New England are UConn and UMass. That’s a tiny sample size. The region is dominated by private schools and many of those do well in lower level athletics. Several of the state schools have done well in D-I hoops, too. But the nature of the schools precludes I-A dominance barring the luck of finding a great hoops coach and keeping them.
4. Neither UConn nor UMass had any sports tradition until hiring a great hoops coach (Calhoun, Geno, Calipari), so “nowadays” seems like an odd phrasing choice.
5. The region is dominated by pro sports, not college. That makes many athletes want to play where college sports are king.
I don’t see why the lack of sustained athletic success from state schools in New England is surprising. What prior success are you thinking that they would maintain? They’ve had some success in non-revenue sports (Maine in hockey for example).
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Sorry, this was a reply to Bob Sykes. I have no idea why it showed up down here.
Bob said:
“Neither Penn State nor Syracuse is in New England, and Syracuse is a private school. PA, NJ, and NY are not New England. New England, by a definition going back hundreds of years, is Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and Vermont.”
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https://johnwallstreet.com/early-entrants-nba-all-digital/
The article Bryan D Fischer was referencing… besides the UCLA stuff has this:
Formation of a Pac-12/Big-12 Strategic Alliance Deemed “Very Likely”
UCLA isn’t going to become the Big-12’s 11th member, but one former Big-12 athletic director deemed the eventual formation of a strategic alliance between the Pac-12 and the Big-12 – on tier-one rights (as was first discussed back in ’12) – as “very likely.” The move simply makes too much sense for it not to happen. 24 schools, spread across 4 time zones, would generate the leverage needed to ensure future growth in the value of their collective media rights; and the addition of several new opponents on each school’s home schedule would help to solve college football’s attendance problems (at least in the short-term).
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A fun quote from that piece:
Geographically speaking, the Big-12 Conference makes the most sense, but as one P5 athletic director suggested “do not underestimate the academic arrogance of the California schools. Joining open-access state schools like Iowa State and Texas Tech is and has always been a non-starter for them.” Heavy money remains on UCLA sticking with Cal, Stanford, USC and the Pac-12 Conference.
And thus why the concept of P12 expansion is so difficult. They won’t accept lesser schools and choices out west are limited.
A limited P12/B12 alliance makes some sense. It sounds like it’s more about collective bargaining power than scheduling a ton of games. I’m not sure why the B12 would want to do it, though. They make significantly more on their own right now. Would the added leverage really get them that much of a bump in TV money? If so, the B10 and SEC should follow suit and blow up the market again.
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For a total of 24 schools, either the Pac or the Big 12 would have to expand by two, and since the former has no legit candidates its presidents would accept, the Big 12 would have to take in two new members. Cincinnati? Brigham Young? A Central Florida/South Florida combo?
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I assume he just mistakenly used 12 for the number of B12 teams when doing the math.
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I assume his “proposal “ is as carefully thought out as his arithmetic skills indicate. (sarcasm)
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Couldnt BYU exist as a sort of affiliated independent in football (maybe schedules 3 B12 and 3 PAC as Notre Dame does 5 with the ACC) and B12 for Olympic sports for bargaining purpose in exchange for preference in scheduling NC games in FB?
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If the proposed B1G/PAC12 collaboration didn’t happen, despite the long-standing Rose Bowl connection, how is a Big12/PAC12 supposed to work?
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I don’t think their proposal is the same thing. They aren’t trying to schedule 8-12 football games per season or anything, they just want to negotiate together and play a few games per year.
One advantage for them is geographical. Teams in AZ going to TX makes a lot more sense than going to MI.
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https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/27038961/what-uconn-expected-move-big-east-mean-biggest-programs
What UConn’s move might mean for their big 3 teams. It also includes some realignment speculation.
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I nominate this Busting Brackets article as the dumbest realignment predictions of 2019 so far:
https://bustingbrackets.com/2019/06/23/ncaa-basketball-6-potential-conference-realignment-scenarios/
1. WVU to the ACC. (I’d love it, but it ain’t gonna happen)
2. Houston to the Big12 (Only shot in hell would be if WVU leaves… see #1)
3. Buffalo, Toledo and Western Kentucky to the AAC (if pigs fly and #1 and #2 happen, then this may make some sense)
4. Rutgers to the Big East/AAC for football (apparently Busting Brackets pays their writers in weed)
5. Cincinnati to the Big Ten (did I say weed? I meant crack)
6. Gonzaga to the Big East (because travel costs will eat more than their bump in $$$)
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1. Make a site.
2. Post realignment rumor telling a fan base what they want to hear
3. Profit.
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https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/27047523/big-east-votes-invite-uconn-rejoin
The BE presidents voted to officially invite UConn back in. Tomorrow UConn’s BoT is scheduled to vote on it with an announcement coming out by Thursday at the latest.
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I would say add a 12th, but in actuality having 11 with one team not scheduled to play a conference team during a particular 3-day window works out for the odd team out in either of 3 ways:
1) bye/rest period; 2) enticing non-conference TV matchup; or 3) lower-conference cupcake/ or bracket buster. Illinois used to have games agains KU/AZ or the Blue Bloods and NU would have a late February weeknight game against a lower major or 1-bid conference team.
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https://johnwallstreet.com/uconn-big-east-media-rights/
I’m not sure how legit this site is, but its worth discussing.
Some have suggested that adding UCONN to the conference gives the Big East further leverage in negotiations, but one high-ranking television executive (at a company that could make a play for the rights) told us that the addition of the 4x men’s college basketball national champions does little to drive up the price; “there are just so few individual basketball programs that stand on their own and drive an audience. Kentucky, Duke, North Carolina – maybe, Kansas; that’s it.”
and
The senior sports TV exec. we spoke to was “extremely bearish on smaller conferences with smaller fandoms.” He suggested that “the era of buying conference rights to fill linear cable hours is over and in the new era, media spends will reflect that. You’re going to see the most valuable rights get more expensive and the price of lower tier rights fall.” That bodes well for a Big East conference that remains among college basketball’s elite, but makes you wonder about how much longer Group of 5 schools will be able to compete with their Power 5 brethren.
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Realignment speculation from Blauds.
https://collegesportsmaven.io/tmg/mark-blaudschun/don-t-expect-many-conference-re-alignment-aftershocks-from-uconn-s-move-gW6pXtPyuUGwWwUKrjGSiA/
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Is California about to go to war with the NCAA. CA is working on a law that will allow players to earn money from their own likeness or image. The NCAA says that such a law could lead to banning CA colleges from championships. If CA passes this law and it is enforced, the NCAA will either have to ban CA schools or this will have to open to all colleges. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/2019/06/24/ncaa-california-schools-could-banned-championships-over-bill/1542632001/
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/06/24/american-athletic-conference-uconn-football-expansion/1555270001/
The AAC is unlikely to replace UConn, at least not in football.
Initial conversations this week among league officials and representatives from member schools indicate the American Athletic Conference is unlikely to replace UConn, a source with close ties to the league told The Enquirer.
While the Huskies leaving for the Big East Conference diminishes the AAC’s basketball brand, the conference will likely remain at 11 football-member schools because, despite speculation among national media outlets about potential additions on the gridiron, there doesn’t appear to be a school that would agree to join and add value to the league.
…
With 11 teams, the AAC could ditch divisions and instead pit the two teams with the highest national ranking at regular season’s end in the conference championship game. That, the source said, would help raise the league’s profile and better position for a college football playoff spot and/or prestigious bowl bids.
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An 11 member conference in men’s BB is not a bad thing – the 11th team can use the off-cycle date during the conference schedule as a resting period, or a chance to play a marquee non-con or ,like NU during the 11-team BIG interregnum years, a chance to play a foe from a mid-major or lower.
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https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/college/asu/2019/06/23/ncaa-college-conference-realignment-amid-lull-another-round-coming/1387701001/
Some realignment discussion.
“It’s pretty likely to happen again,” says AJ Maestas, CEO of Navigate, a sports marketing research firm based in Chicago with a regional office in Scottsdale. “Realignment is a lot more fluid than we feel like it is when we’re in one of these middle periods.
“It would be far more surprising if there was no realignment than if there was.”
…
Media and marketing executive Tom Stultz, president of JMI Sports and former senior vice president of IMG College, says Power 5 conferences are better protected against defections now than in the recent past.
“A lot of the conferences have required their members to assign their rights to the conference and to the TV deal for the full term of that contract,” he said. “Which in theory means if they were to decide to leave the conference, they wouldn’t take any TV rights with them.
“The reality is unless those rights expire and become available or unless the networks decide to release some of these schools, I don’t know how much realignment can take place. It’s a challenge.”
…
“You have to look at it and say, ‘How many more dollars can we get if we add two more and is it enough to pay them what we’re getting and us not go backwards or can everybody get more?’ ” Stultz said. “Unless you find schools that can do that, there’s really not a high incentive for adding schools from an economic standpoint.”
…
“These presidents don’t want to disrupt their alumni base and geographic alignment, then you look at all the ties to students in California and the prestige of the Pac-12 universities. It would be shocking in my mind if the presidents at ASU and UA voted to leave the Pac-12. The revenue is not that much different. Presidents would never do it based on a few million a year in sports revenue. I would be more likely to bet on the TV future of the Pac-12 than the Big 12.”
…
They’re well-positioned because it is absolutely true taking ownership in media rights and distribution has served people historically very well,” Maestas said. “In a time of disruption and fragmentation and changing technology, it gives them a lot of options on how to play their hand of cards.
“You have to caveat that with their natural position. People expecting the Pac-12 to have SEC or Big Ten money is ridiculous because they don’t have the fan base, ratings, audience, the passion. But if you compare it to someone who has similar metrics, I would like to have the Pac-12 hand better.”
Another analyst said, “The Pac-12 Network puts them in a very unique position where they’re either going to look really, really smart or not. If one of the technology companies or the new content companies or somebody we haven’t even thought of decides to make a major content play, they’re uniquely positioned because they own all that content where the other conferences have already sold that to form their own networks and do other things.
“They’re in a good position if somebody comes in and says we want to do something really special. If that doesn’t happen then they’re going to have to hope one of the existing networks says we’ll take this over and run it then give you a lot of money.”
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https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2019/06/canzano-were-the-oregon-ducks-dumb-to-sign-on-to-play-auburn-in-football-opener.html
Is it dumb to play a good OOC game in the CFP era? I think the CFP committee should change their approach so people can’t reasonably ask that question.
The College Football Playoff selection committee does not use strength of schedule to determine which teams make the playoff. That’s a fallacy. The committee uses it only to determine seeding once the teams are in. So the best strategy for a Power Five Conference member is to schedule winnable non-conference games and try to go undefeated in conference play.
…
I took a quick poll of a few Pac-12 Conference coaches on Wednesday. None of them went on the record with attribution. Also, none of them thought the Ducks scheduling Auburn in the opener was a great, no-brainer idea, even if Oregon has a good chance to win the game.
Said one: “I don’t judge teams by first games in general, because everyone changes so much after their first game. I thought it was bad scheduling (last season) by Washington (to play Auburn).”
Said another: “If we didn’t go out of our way to make our path tougher than everyone else, we would all win more and get more respect.”
And another said: “The real problem is that we have a bad TV deal.”
I don’t blame Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens for signing on in 2015 to play this game. He’s defended it since, saying the Ducks want the exposure and branding it brings. And I think there’s some logic there. But I think four years later, the risks have become clearer and I’m convinced that chasing the exposure in a game like this isn’t worthwhile.
…
Again, what’s best for fans and television isn’t what’s best for Oregon football. Or the conference. And that’s underscored by the Pac-12 coach who said that the real issue is the conference’s television contract.
The Pac-12 whines about respect and exposure.
That’s completely rooted in the Pac-12′s lousy TV deal and lack of revenue. Their current deal doesn’t effectively reach most of the country and it’s created a revenue shortfall.
The desire to be seen nationally incentivizes members to schedule big-stage non-conference games, some of them with paydays like the one Oregon will receive. But the truth is, if the conference didn’t play an extra conference game every season and scheduled more non-conference games that were winnable, it would participate in the playoff more frequently.
That would bring immediate respect.
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Jon Wilner did a Q&A with SBJ’s Michael Smith about the P12 equity sale.
Q: Do you sense any consensus within the Pac-12’s power structure to execute a sale of equity in its media rights? Or do you think the lean is to maintain the status quo?
Smith: I do not sense there’s a consensus, but there is enough interest to keep the process moving forward.
Q: When do you expect a resolution? Could the Pac-12 reach a decision to sell or hold this summer. Or might the process stretch into the fall (or even the winter)?
Smith: “All indications are that (commissioner) Larry Scott has been inclusive among university CEOs, CFOs and ADs. That means the process moves a little slower.
“I do not expect the selection of a strategic partner to get done by this summer.
“We’re talking about getting 12 schools on board for something that’s never been done before. There are skeptics who need to be convinced.”
Q: What is driving the valuation of the media rights within the investor community?
Smith: “The conference’s media rights are driving the value. The Pac-12 is encouraged that its rights have attracted bids that are based on the $5 billion valuation.
“I don’t think they entirely knew what to expect, but even if the CEOs decide not to accept a bid, they feel good about what they’ve learned, regarding the valuation.
“There also is a scarcity component, in that no other college conference is doing this.”
Q: Scott believes finding the right strategic partner is more important than the financial component. Could you sketch a model of what you think would be the ideal partner for the conference?
Smith: “The Pac-12 is not interested in private equity firms just looking for an investment and a return. The bids that get the conference’s attention are coming from marketing agencies, tech companies, media companies — the type of bidders who can enhance the Pac-12 as a strategic partner.
“The two words I’ve heard most often throughout this process are ‘added value.’ What kind of added value can a strategic partner bring?
“Different bidders bring different strengths. Sorting through that takes time and vision.”
Q: How would you define success for the Pac-12 in this endeavor?
Smith: “They say they’ve already succeeded because they’re emboldened by the feedback and the bids.
“Even if the conference decides not to take on a partner, Scott and the CEOs believe they have validated their decision to pool all of the rights so that they have maximum flexibility.
“They believe they can monetize that through investment or higher rights fees, linear or streaming.”
Q: How are executives in other major college conferences viewing the Pac-12’s exploration? If this proves a successful venture, might other conferences might follow the same path?
Smith: “The Pac-12 is an easy target right now for skeptics who perceive this investment model as a Hail Mary to keep its schools competitive financially.
“I don’t see any other conference lining up to try this. But I would not dismiss this idea as a last-ditch effort to save the conference, either.
“If the Pac-12 takes on an investment partner at $750 million, that’s an additional $12 million or so, per school, per year, over the next five years.
“That’s a game changer. And it bridges the gap to get to the next media deal.
“There are components of this plan that make a lot more sense to me now than six months ago.”
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2019/06/26/ncaas-changes-transfer-guidelines-limit-immediate-eligibility/1569260001/
The NCAA is expected to clarify the waiver process for transfers to get immediate eligibility, potentially making it harder. The article gives more details about specific wording changes.
The NCAA Division I council is expected to approve a package of new guidelines that could make it more difficult for college football and basketball players who transfer to receive immediate eligibility via waivers, according to a document obtained by USA TODAY Sports.
The council is scheduled to meet Wednesday in Indianapolis to review the updated guidelines and directives, which in many cases appear to specify and narrow the circumstances in which athletes should be given waivers and raise the documentation requirements to obtain them. Compliance staffs at Division I schools were made aware of the proposals last week.
The new guidelines are not rules but essentially a set of directions for the Committee on Legislative Relief, which decides whether or not to grant the waivers. They are thought to be in response to a significant increase in the number of waiver requests being submitted to the NCAA this summer and growing frustration among some schools and fans about decisions that appear to be inconsistent in cases that seem to be similar.
…
“Across the board, the proposed new guidelines raise the bar for schools seeking a waiver on behalf of a student-athlete,” said attorney Tom Mars, who has represented a number of high-profile athletes in waiver cases over the last year. “Given the dramatic increase in the number of waivers being sought for the 2019-20 season, raising the bar strikes me as a sensible short-term reaction by the Legislative Council.”
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I was a regular poster here once upon a time, but it’s been at least a year since I last posted.
Has Frank “retired” from posting on his blog? (Understandable if so.) I would be interested on his take of UConn returning to the Big East.
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Long time, no see Michael. Unfortunately, Frank has been about as active around here lately as you have. We all assume real life is keeping him busy. He did say a few things on twitter (@frankthetank111) about UConn’s move to the BE if you’re curious.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaw/2019/06/26/uconn-board-expected-to-finalize-switch-from-aac-to-big-east/39622867/
It’s official, UConn will rejoin the Big East in 2020.
The University of Connecticut Board of Trustees on Wednesday accepted an invitation to move its basketball and most other athletic teams from the American Athletic Conference.
University President Susan Herbst signed a contract with the Big East that includes a $3.5 million entry fee, and the teams are expected to begin play in the conference in the 2020-21 academic year.
…
The school hasn’t indicated what it plans to do with its football program, a sport not offered by the Big East. But as part of the contract with the Big East, UConn has agreed not to seek football membership at this time in any Power Five conference and to pay a $30 million exit fee if it leaves the Big East during its first six years of membership. The fee would eventually drop to $15 and later $10 million.
“Make no mistake that we will still be committed to our football program,” Ritter said. “We will have options for football and we will have time to decide on a pathway for a successful and exciting football program.”
…
Not everyone is pleased with the move. UConn football season-ticket holder Tom McDougall made the 40-minute drive from west Hartford to address the board. He said the vote means they don’t care about him or other football fans.
“It doesn’t even make sense,” he said. “There is more money in the American Athletic Conference. There is a future in the American Athletic Conference. There’s an escape route in the American Athletic Conference. The Big East offers none of these things.”
UConn officials expressed displeasure with the AAC in March when the conference and ESPN announced a new 12-year television contract. The deal was designed to increase revenue for the league’s schools from about $2 million to $7 million a year, but it put many games on ESPN-plus, the company’s subscription digital platform.
The Big East has a 12-year, $500 million media rights deal with Fox Sports that was signed in 2013. That deal pays members more than $4 million annually.
$3.5M to join the BE
Supposedly $10M to leave the AAC (I assume they’ll try to negotiate it down)
A drop from $7M to $4M+ in TV revenue (plus whatever they can make for football)
Their travel costs should go way down and hoops fans will be more energized, but do the numbers work out? Football will make even less outside of the AAC. Without massive budget cuts it seems like their deficit will increase.
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Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but a B10 team lost a national championship game in a fairly major sport last night. Does any other conference lose these games as often as the B10?
That said, it was nice to see midwestern baseball in the CWS championship. Maybe the B10 can aspire to become decent again.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/winners-and-losers-of-the-decade-of-realignment-in-college-sports-224801059.html
Pat Forde on the winners and losers in this decade of realignment.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/06/27/aresco-says-no-chance-of-uconn-staying-as-football-member/39631965/
I think the AAC is upset with UConn. Will they force UConn to stay just to be annoying? Can they force UConn to stay?
UConn Athletic Director David Benedict said Thursday he wanted to talk to Aresco about football and about UConn’s exit from the conference. The AAC bylaws require UConn to give 27 months’ notice before leaving the AAC. It also must pay a $10 million exit fee.
The Associated Press asked Aresco if it was possible the league would be interested in retaining UConn’s football program.
“The short answer is no, not a chance,” he said.
He said there also have not been any negotiations on the terms of UConn’s exit.
“They are required to stay the 27 months,” he said. “If they want to get out early, they would have to take the initiative to talk to us and I’ll leave it at that. That’s going to be up to David. I would anticipate that he would want to talk to me, but that’s going to be up to him.”
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First, I agree with Aresco that the loss of UConn will have very little adverse impact to the AAC. Obviously UConn football has been a total irrelevance and men’s bball has been mediocre at best. Yes, woman’s bball has been wonderful, but how much of an impact is that on the overall conference? The loss of the Hartford media market means little or nothing for any media deal.
The positive impact on Big East bball will be much greater than any loss to the AAC. While I do not think that UConn men’s bball will return to former glory, they have a chance to do so in the Big East. It should really help recruiting.
UConn football will eventually have to downgrade, unless they want to offer themselves as perennial losers to P5 teams that will pay for the honor. If the athletic dept keeps bleeding tens of millions, with no answer in sight, football will be in trouble.
As to the 27 months and ten million, none of us have seen the contract, but there does not seem to be any reason to believe that it cannot be enforced by filing an injunction in Federal court in Providence. No reason to sue in CT, so the AAC might as well sue where they have some home court advantage.
My best guess is that Aresco is using the 27 months as a threat to collect the full $10 million. The AAC teams must be more interested in the money than in keeping UConn around.
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I agree with you about the lack of impact of losing UConn. it will hurt the AAC’s hoops brand a little, but that’s not all that important. I do think Aresco is a little ticked that they are already saying UConn will play in the BE in 2020. I think he would’ve preferred quiet negotiations up front and a little more time to re-work schedules. He also might be upset if UConn was talking with the BE behind his back rather than keeping the AAC in the loop.
The reason I asked about enforcement is that it’s not clear to me how you stop them. You can sue and win, but you can’t make them play games. Even if you could, they’d just be a cancer inn the conference. It’s seems like the most you could do is withhold all their conference earnings and demand the contractual payment for leaving. Maybe a court would give you damages above and beyond that. As always, I assume they’ll reach a settlement that allows UConn to leave early but they’ll probably have to pay the full exit fee or very close to it.
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An injunction could stop UConn from playing in the Big East, but, as you said, would not force them to play in the AAC. If getting a pound of flesh is the true motive of the AAC, they can make life miserable for UConn by not allowing them to play in BE for two years. I would be shocked if that is the case.
Aresco knows that this is not about timing as much as it is about money. I assume that UConn can get the $10 million from somewhere, but the Huskies should not expect a big discount.
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https://www.espn.com/soccer/fifa-womens-world-cup/story/3887627/akerschastain-to-take-part-in-new-cte-study
The first significant study of head impacts and CTE in high-level women’s soccer is getting started.
Several veterans of the USWNT will participate.
Dubbed SHINE, for Soccer, Head Impacts and Neurological Effects, the study will look at former players over 40 who played a minimum of five years of organized soccer, with at least two of those years coming after high school and at least one year at the pro level or on a national or Olympic team. It will be led by Boston University professor of neurology Dr. Robert Stern, clinical research director for BU’s Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (CTE) center, and be funded by the Concussion Legacy Foundation and the National Institute on Aging.
They already know soccer causes a lot of concussions in kids. This may be the first domino in eliminating headers from the game.
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I wonder if some sort of light headgear can be developed to both protect from concussions, but allow headers to continue. Elimination of headers would be a major change in soccer.
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A soccer ball weighs about 1 pound and can go up to 80 mph (2845 J of kinetic energy). Redirecting that ball has a noticeable effect on the head. If you pad your head, you’re still adsorbing that energy but over a slightly longer time so the force is less. You’ll get a weaker header but the brain should be hurt less. The question is how much is enough?
A safer thing would be to change the rules and let people use their elbows instead.
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Headgear can prevent lacerations and fractures, but the brain injury is due to the brain bouncing around inside the skull. No headgear prevents that.
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Reviewing B1G members in Directors’ Cup final standings for 2018-2019:
* Michigan placed 2nd (1,272.25 points) to perennial champion Stanford (1,567.75).
* Members in top 20:
Ohio State (12th, 986)
Penn State (13th, 963.5)
Wisconsin (16th, 895)
Minnesota (20th, 813.75)
* Other B1G schools:
Indiana (32nd, 719.5)
Iowa (38th, 629.5)
Maryland (40th, 588)
Illinois (43rd, 556.25)
Northwestern (45th, 526.5)
Michigan State (47th, 526.5)
Nebraska (48th, 523.25)
Purdue (55th, 463.25)
Rutgers (82nd, 259)
* Brigham Young (29th) and Princeton (30th) were the highest-ranked non-P5 schools.
* Kansas State (tied, 94th with Furman) was the lowest P5 member.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2019/06/28/american-athletic-conference-connecticut-departure-options/1603622001/
The AAC is most likely not going to replace UConn for at least a couple of years. There are few schools that make sense for them and none of those schools want to join the AAC.
The most likely scenario, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told The (Memphis) Commercial Appeal on Friday, is the AAC will remain an 11-team football and basketball league — possibly for a couple of years. The source said the programs that have been the subject of the most fodder in recent days (BYU, Army, Boise State) either don’t have reciprocal interest or don’t make sense for the league from a geographical standpoint.
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“…either don’t have reciprocal interest or don’t make sense for the league from a geographical standpoint.”
Or both…
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27093210/maryland-hit-warning-accrediting-agency
UMD got a warning from its accreditor about the BoR potentially overstepping its bounds in the football scandal.
The University of Maryland at College Park has been warned that its accreditation “may be in jeopardy,” and has until March 1, 2020, to prove to the Middle States Commission on Higher Education that it has a structure that “outlines roles, responsibilities, and accountability for decision-making.”
The Middle States Commission on Higher Education issued a release Friday that Maryland had “insufficient evidence that the institution is currently in compliance with Standard VII (Governance, Leadership, and Administration).”
It’s a procedural move that resulted from the scrutiny the university faced following the death last year of former Maryland offensive lineman Jordan McNair to heatstroke he suffered during a May 29 workout, but the accrediting body was not investigating how McNair was treated or the events that surrounded his death June 13.
Instead, the warning came as the result of a review into how the University System of Maryland Board of Regents might have overstepped its authority in trying to make personnel decisions regarding former coach DJ Durkin and university president Wallace D. Loh.
The board of regents said in a statement Sunday it took the commission’s decision “extremely seriously.”
“The regents, system office, and leadership at College Park are committed to working together to ensure that our governance structure is in full alignment with Middle States standards,” the statement said. “We have made good progress in this regard and anticipate a constructive outcome in March 2020.”
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27099006/former-usc-assistant-alleges-violations-suit
A former USC assistant is filing a whistleblower lawsuit.
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https://spacenews.com/starlink-failures-highlight-space-sustainability-concerns/
So 3 of the 60 Starlink satellites launched in late May are already dead. As low as they are, they will still take several years to deorbit.
The failure of at least five percent of the first batch of SpaceX Starlink satellites has put a spotlight on the growing concerns that satellite megaconstellations could litter low Earth orbit with hundreds of dead satellites.
…
In addition to the three failed satellites, five others are still raising their orbits to their planned altitude of 550 kilometers, while five others are still undergoing tests in their initial, lower orbits. It wasn’t clear when, or if, those satellites would reach their operational orbit.
SpaceX had stressed prior to the launch that these satellites were, in effect, experimental, and had a higher risk of on-orbit failures as the company demonstrates their key technologies. Launching them into lower orbits ensures they should deorbit in a matter of a few years.
At the Secure World Foundation’s Summit for Space Sustainability here last week, government and industry officials said they were concerned that proposed megaconstellations of thousands of satellites could, with similar failure rates, leave hundreds of dead satellites in low Earth orbit, a particular concern at some of the higher altitudes proposed for those systems where it can take centuries for satellites to naturally deorbit.
Matt Desch, chief executive of Iridium, dubbed dead satellites “rocks” during an on-stage interview at the conference June 26. “What if you launch 1,000 satellites, 5,000 satellites, 12,000 satellites?” he asked. “Say, 10 percent create rocks. We are creating an environment that may make LEO an environment that isn’t sustainable.”
Desch speaks from his own company’s experience. The company has emphasized reliability — it’s noted all 75 of its next-generation satellites are functioning — and sustainability, including taking first-generation satellites out of orbit within a matter of weeks once retired from the fleet.
Those first-generation satellites were designed to operate seven years, but in some cases lasted three times as long. Yet, nearly a third suffered in-orbit failures and cannot be deorbited. “We’ve created, inadvertently, using highly reliable components, almost 30 percent rocks in space that will be up there a long time,” he said.
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Astronomy Magazine puts this whole issue in perspective.
http://www.astronomy.com/news/2019/06/light-pollution-from-satellites-will-get-worse-but-how-much
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“Matt Desch, chief executive of Iridium…”
Who has been putting Iridium satellites in orbit?
Who’s very low latency network may threaten a much higher orbit network?
Who’s satellites are approximately 1/4 the mass of Iridium’s?
Who’s satellites are built to de orbit themselves at end of “life”?
Who’s non experimental units are designed to be fully demise upon re entry?
Only one answer necessary.
The true risk is not satellites but debris, such as when China or India show off that they can shoot an orbiting satellite creating many thousands of randomly traveling shrapnel pieces. Most satellites have the ability to move to lessen risk of satellites crashing. Untracked tiny debris is the actual risk.
““The greatest risk to space missions comes from non-trackable debris,” said Nicholas Johnson, NASA chief scientist for orbital debris.”
https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html
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De-orbiting systems fail. The current ones don’t have them, they are just relying on time and drag. And until they are launched we only have Musk’s word for functional de-orbiting systems on the regular satellites. And we already know they won’t completely burn up on reentry.
All matter in orbit is a problem. Dead satellites are trackable, but they also can run into other debris and change the orbits of both. Dead satellites can’t avoid other debris, trackable or not, and could easily turn into a large debris field from an impact. And you can also use up the ability of satellites to move if there are enough things to avoid.
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“De-orbiting systems fail.”
Yes, and low earth orbit satellites without control systems can only stay up a few years as opposed to hundreds to many thousand years for mid to high orbit satellites.
“The current ones don’t have them,”
Yes they do. Only the three they lost contact with are going to drift until demise.
“we only have Musk’s word for functional de-orbiting systems on the regular satellites.”
They are currently (as in as you read this) intentionally de orbiting two functional test sats as part of their testing program.
“And we already know they won’t completely burn up on reentry.”
Only the first batch. Other than the recently developed cube sats can you tell me any other satellites that are completely demisable? Many (particularly military) are multiple ton as opposed to star link at around 240 kg.
“And you can also use up the ability of satellites to move if there are enough things to avoid.”
Protocol would be to de orbit before reaching that point.
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And if you’re launching 1500 per year it doesn’t matter because you keep restocking the orbit with dead satellites.
I’m talking fail-safe deorbiting systems, not thrusters that only work if you can communicate with them. There has been much discussion about requiring future satellites to have fail-safe deorbiting systems.
I am not aware of any plans for SpaceX to replace the parts that won’t burn up in the newer satellites, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have such plans. Certain parts are tough. But others, like the ESA, are doing research to make all future satellites they launch burn up completely on reentry. That would seem like a good thing to do before launching thousands of them.
And it’s not really about total mass as much as shape and material. Some materials are much harder to vaporize and you also need to get sufficient skin friction (as opposed to wave drag) to heat them up. Parts that are inside many layers of other material may not get sufficient exposure. And most really big satellites are intentionally brought down over the ocean or uninhabited areas whenever possible to avoid injuries. Starlink will just let them rain down wherever.
Protocol requires a working system and nobody deciding the satellite was needed for a few extra weeks/months until a replacement came online. If they do run out of thrust capability early, how sure are we that they will be deorbited immediately? Especially if a bunch of them face that issue.
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https://www.google.com/amp/s/spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/aerospace/satellites/spacex-claims-to-have-redesigned-its-starlink-satellites-to-eliminate-casualty-risks.amp.html
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Unless you save bunch of fuel (and it would need to be chemical, not electric/ion propulsion) no satellites can deorbit imediately. A planned degradation is set in motion.
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No matter what type of engine, no satellite deorbits immediately from start to finish. I was talking about the time from end of useful life to the start of the deorbit maneuver. Sometimes a planned deorbit maneuver is used, but many times natural decay is used. This is why there are so many dead satellites in orbit.
The type of deorbit system has an impact on how much control they have over the potential impact site. There are specific deorbiting systems made to bring down a satellite even if it has lost communications because it is a separate system. You could even make one that is triggered by satellite failure.
You’ll note that SpaceX pointed out that they cannot control the reentry location of their satellites. SpaceX has chosen to use weak ion thrusters for their satellites. They have pluses and minuses, with one minus being the low force means they can’t control re-entry location. The only way to meet safety regulations is then to say the satellites will burn up entirely (a constellation of the current version would have a 45% chance of hitting someone in 6 years). Of course they ignored that for their first batch of satellites and just launched ones they knew wouldn’t burn up. They say they “expect to” replace certain parts that won’t currently burn up in their newer satellites, but these new satellites haven’t been built yet so plans could change.
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“No matter what type of engine, no satellite deorbits immediately from start to finish.”
Every low earth orbit satellite is constantly in a state of deorbiting. The on board propulsion systems primarily work to arrest this and maintain the intended orbit.
“ I was talking about the time from end of useful life to the start of the deorbit maneuver.”
Unless the plan is pathetic a deorbit maneuver will be included as the last of its useful life, not an addendum.
“Sometimes a planned deorbit maneuver is used, but many times natural decay is used. This is why there are so many dead satellites in orbit.”
Nature decay is many times faster from LEO than the higher orbits. Geostationary sats aren’t deorbited but pushed out to “safe” dead satellite parking orbits. There are so many dead up there because for a long time nobody planned an alternative end.
Vanguard 1 was the USA’s second satellite launched in the late ‘50s and it’s still up there.
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ccrider55,
“Unless the plan is pathetic a deorbit maneuver will be included as the last of its useful life, not an addendum.”
Plenty of companies have utilized that pathetic plan before, there’s no reason to assume SpaceX is immune to the same thinking. Say they have a technical issue and can’t launch new satellites for several months. Is there no chance they keep old satellites in service longer than they should rather than risk losing coverage? All they have to do is deorbit in 25 years to meet the current regulations and natural decay will do that.
“Nature decay is many times faster from LEO than the higher orbits.”
It’s still months to years for Starlink depending on the orbit (some are slated to be much higher than others).
“Geostationary sats aren’t deorbited but pushed out to “safe” dead satellite parking orbits.”
And still a concern as the numbers increase. But nobody is proposing 10,000 geostationary satellites.
“There are so many dead up there because for a long time nobody planned an alternative end.
Vanguard 1 was the USA’s second satellite launched in the late ‘50s and it’s still up there.”
It was considered a safe location for a long time.
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https://www.nata.org/press-release/062619/only-half-collegiate-level-sports-programs-follow-medical-model-care-student
A survey of college athletic trainers has some bad news in it.
A new survey of college and university athletic trainers shows that 51.73% of their collegiate-level sports programs follow the NCAA-legislated independent medical model of care. In addition, 76.26% of respondents feel they have medical autonomy – the unchallengeable authority to determine medical management of athletes.
…
The survey also shows that more than one-third (36.32%) reported a coach influences the hiring or firing of sports medicine staff. A subset of this group (29.95%), responded to a question subset directly related to receiving pressure from non-medical personnel on medical decisions. Of this subset, which represents 17.37% of the total survey response, almost three out of five collegiate athletic trainers (57.81%) reported receiving pressure from an administrator, coach or member of the coaching staff to make a decision that was not in the best interest of a student athlete’s health. Of the 57.81% who reported receiving pressure, approximately the same percentage (58.65%) reported receiving pressure at least once a month; almost one in 10 (9.94%) reported receiving pressure at least once a week; more than one-quarter (28.85%) reported receiving pressure at least twice a month; and 2.56% reported receiving pressure daily.
“It is absolutely appropriate and expected for coaches as well as other relevant athletic personnel to ask questions. What is not acceptable is when the inquiry is laced with an expectation to influence, dictate, coerce or challenge the athletic trainer’s autonomous authority to make medical decisions in the sole interest of student athlete health and wellbeing,” said NATA President Tory Lindley, MA, ATC.
“While we believe that the pendulum is shifting in a positive direction, there is certainly more work to be done. NATA’s goal is to continue to advocate for and support NCAA delivery of care legislation. Student athletes and their parents should feel confident that decisions about health and safety are based solely on medical information and judgment and are not influenced by personnel who are not trained and experienced in that area,” Lindley added.
…
Additional Survey Findings
* 29.98% reported that medical autonomy is affected by sport assignment, meaning some sports may allow more independent medical decision-making than others
* 18.73% reported a coach playing an athlete who had been deemed medically ineligible for participation
* 49.41% reported having no formal document that describes the model adopted by the school
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Rutgers announces the theme of each game in the upcoming season which marks the 150th year of college football. https://www.onthebanks.com/2019/7/2/20679727/rutgers-football-to-honor-history-during-every-home-game-of-150th-anniversary-princeton-espn-abc
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It’s understandable that most focus on RU players rather than CFB history itself, but still a little disappointing. Hopefully TV will build more around this. Maybe they’ll discuss integration of the sport nationally the week of Paul Robeson, for example.
1. Birthplace of CFB
2. Paul Robeson
3. All-Americans
4. Players from the 40s, 50s and 60s
5. Players from the 70s, 80s and 90s
6. Players from the 2000s and 2010s
7. Eric LeGrand
What about other players from before 1940 besides Robeson? That’s 70 years of football for them. Are they included in the birthplace week?
Do they have enough All-Americans to build a theme around?
It’s tough to honor the recent players during the OSU game. I’m not sure how excited the fans may be at that point.
Note that they aren’t doing anything with Princeton. Not even playing some other fall/winter sports on the anniversary weekend of the first game as far as I can tell. That seems like a missed opportunity.
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The oldest team in the oldest conference. Perfect.
Maybe the B1G should take in Army and Navy, too, to give Rutgers someone they can play.
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Army played its first football game ever against Navy in 1890. Navy started playing in 1879. Several other teams played before either Army or Navy Michigan played in 1879 also. For many years most of Rutgers’ football schedule was Ivy teams, Princeton, Columbia, Cornell were regulars forever. For some reason, I do not think that RU played Penn, which was less than 75 miles away. Throw in Delaware, Lehigh and Lafayette and there was most of the schedule. Note that nearly all games were within a 100 mile radius of RU. They all had very old programs. As far as celebration with Princeton, football was out of the question. There was talk of a RU-Princeton rugby game, but I do not know if anything came of it.
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The rugby game isn’t happening either. How about a flag football game between the intramural champs at each school? That’s closer to what the first game was anyway.
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That is plain nasty.
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By the way, in case it is unclear Rutgers is not the oldest football team in the conference. The first college football game was played at Rutgers in November 1869 and Princeton was the visiting team, so RU and Princeton are simply the oldest college football teams. There is a fable that the Princeton players were chased out of town, but contemporaneous newspaper reports (in the Rutgers Daily Targum and a local newspaper) indicate that everyone went out and celebrated together.
As to the other half of the game, Princeton is not celebrating as such. The entire Ivy League is having a 150th year anniversary celebration of the history of Ivy League football. https://ivyleague.com/news/2019/1/23/ivy-league-set-to-showcase-storied-history-throughout-college-footballs-150th-celebration.aspx
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Not a putdown, just saying a game between 2 teams of students who like a sport is more like the original game than today’s version with athletes getting special admissions treatment and being forced to attend school to play.
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Brian, there was some talk of something like that. I believe that a similar idea was the genesis of the rugby game. I have no clue why it all broke down. It is sad that the two schools could not do something together.
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Brian, there was some talk of something like that. I believe that a similar idea was the genesis of the rugby game. I have no clue why it all broke down. It is sad that the two schools could not do something together.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/ranking-all-65-power-five-schools-in-overall-athletic-success-155727074.html
Running average of Directors Cup finishes over the past 5 years for P5 schools.
B10:
5. OSU
7. MI
9. PSU
21. WI
23. MN
36. NE
37. IL
41. NW
43. IN
45. UMD
47. MSU
48. PU
50. IA
63. RU
I think that’s a little disappointing for the B10 with only 5 schools in the top half of P5 members.
Some notes:
Vanderbilt saved the league from a couple other ignominious distinctions. First, this would have been the first year since 2004-05 that the SEC didn’t win at least one championship in what generally could be considered the highest-profile sports: football and women’s volleyball in the fall; men’s and women’s basketball in the winter; baseball and softball in the spring. Second, it kept the SEC from having the fewest national titles of any Power Five conference — the Pac-12 won 13, the Atlantic Coast Conference six (including both football and men’s basketball), the Big 12 five, and the Big Ten and SEC tied with four apiece.
Bottom line: In terms of both quantity and quality of national titles, this was a rough year for the SEC — and it fits into a trend of declining prowess in the league that loves to boast about its superiority.
From the expansion to add Arkansas and South Carolina through 2006-07, the SEC averaged 7.1 national championships per year, with a high of 10 in 1998-99. Since then, the average dips to 5.3. Over the last five years, the average is just 4.6.
…
* The best-performing non-Power Five athletic department over the past five years (and in 2018-19 specifically) was BYU. The Cougars would have been 33rd in our rankings, between Tennessee and Baylor.
* The best-performing non-FBS athletic department was Princeton. The Tigers would have been 35th, between Virginia Tech and Arizona.
* The best-performing school that plays no football at all was Denver. The Pioneers would have been tied for 45th with Maryland.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/07/09/university-alaska-state-anchorage-fairbanks-budget-governor-mike-dunleavy/1687174001/
This hasn’t been a big story nationally until now, but there is a major fight going on in Alaska. Due to lower oil production and oil prices, the state has seen a major decrease in revenue over the past few years. They have been using savings to keep their budget balanced but the now the governor is drawing the line. He used his line-item veto to cut over $400M from the budget to balance it, with $130M of that coming from higher education. The only hope left is for the legislature to override the veto with a 75% vote.
The University of Alaska could lay off more than 1,000 and cut dozens of programs, thanks to a dramatic slash in money it gets from the state – a 41% cut from a line-item veto by Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy.
…
At the University of Alaska’s Anchorage branch, Chancellor Cathy Sandeen predicts around 700 layoffs and 40 programs eliminated if the Legislature fails to override Dunleavy’s veto Wednesday. UAA employs 1,562 people and has 162 degree and certificate programs.
…
At the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Chancellor Dan White said the cuts would reach far beyond the classroom. While White said the campus’s leading Arctic research program would suffer, the biggest impacts could be to the role UAF plays in the local community.
Of the hundreds of millions of dollars the university spends each year, “most of that goes into the local community, in the form of salaries, property taxes, and contracts to businesses,” White said. “Not only do people value education for their kids and for themselves, they value the university for their business and the economy of the region.”
Fairbanks is Alaska’s third-largest city, yet its fairly isolated location is valuable for contact with rural Alaska Native populations.
The governor isn’t necessarily wrong to want a balanced budget but I hate to see higher education treated as a luxury, especially at the schools best suited to study polar climate change. It is hard for the UA system to attract out of state students (91% in state) to get increased tuition revenue. This may be a blow that the schools never recover from, and the best students may leave the state and never return. They are discussing closing regional campuses which is a big thing for a large and rural state like Alaska.
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/07/10/u-alaskas-accreditor-warns-funding-cuts-could-threaten-systems-status
On top of the financial issues, the accreditation agency is warning the state about a possible loss of accreditation.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/07/09/university-texas-free-tuition-low-income-students/1688445001/
In contrast, UT is about to offer free tuition to students with a family income below $65,000 (about 25% of their students) and reduced tuition for those below $125k (> 15%). This will be paid for by an endowment from the PUF (which has been built on oil and gas royalties over the years).
U of M has just started a similar program and obviously without the benefit of oil money.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/08/are-us-womens-soccer-players-really-earning-less-than-men/
Much has been said lately about the pay disparity between the men’s and women’s national soccer teams.
1. Both teams collectively bargained for their contracts and they agreed to different pay structures. The women chose a guaranteed salary while the men can earn slightly more but have no guaranteed money at all.
2. FIFA pays much more money for the men’s WC than for the women’s ($400M vs $30M last time). The players eventually get a share of that. This ends up favoring the men by a lot.
The Washington Post looked into the actual documents including USSF’s financials.
On earnings:
It’s tough to make a straightforward comparison of the earnings for men and women players, because the two teams have different collective-bargaining agreements that outline different pay structures.
A contract player on the women’s team makes a base salary and can earn performance-based bonuses. (Players without a contract have a different pay schedule.)
On the men’s team, players earn only bonuses.
The teams play different numbers of games each year and earn different bonuses depending on the game type, their opponents’ FIFA rank and the game’s outcome. On top of that, both teams can earn additional bonuses for winning specific tournaments. And certain events, such as the World Cup, have a separate bonus structure entirely.
“The male players are paid when they play, but not when they sit,” McCann said. “USMNT players must thus be on the roster to be pay eligible. USWNT players, in contrast, are guaranteed pay.”
The lawsuit from the women’s team sketched out the following scenario: If both teams played [and won] 20 friendlies in a year, a top-tier women’s national team player would earn $164,320 less, or “38% of the compensation of a similarly situated MNT player.” That was true under the previous collective-bargaining agreement that ended in December 2016.
The Fact Checker obtained the new agreement, which took effect in April 2017. Using the same 20-game scenario, we calculated the player on the women’s team would earn $28,333 less, or about 89 percent of the compensation of a similarly situated men’s team player. If both teams lost all 20 games, the players would make the same amount. That’s because the men earn a $5,000 bonus when they lose and the women have a $100,000 base salary.
USWNT players have previously said publicly they believed this was the best agreement they could get without going on strike. [Sports Illustrated writer and University of New Hampshire law professor Michael] McCann said: “The players’ unions negotiated these systems. This type of argument thus implicitly directs USWNT players to blame their own union for negotiating a system that pays them in ways they find unacceptable.”
Under the women’s new bargaining agreement, the players can also earn attendance bonuses, payment for commercial appearances and per diems that are equal and tied to what the men can earn.
So the women negotiated for the security of a guaranteed salary but are upset that the men chose a chance for higher pay at the expense of security. The differences do not seem unreasonable to me. If the women want to balance the risk/reward equation differently in the future, they just have to negotiate for it.
About the World Cup money:
Total prize money for the Women’s World Cup in 2019 is $30 million — the champions will walk away with about $4 million. For contrast, in the 2018 Men’s World Cup, the champions won $38 million from a total pool of about $400 million. In other words, the champions from the men’s world cup were awarded more than the total prize money in the women’s tournament. So there’s no question that there’s a huge gap in earning potential here.
How does this play out for the teams? According to their collective-bargaining agreements, the men’s team earns $3,000 more for a loss in a World Cup qualifying game than the women earn for a win. And that is just the beginning of the differences. In their legal response, USSF attributes the gap to the total prize money that FIFA provides.
Shockingly the lawyers for each side disagree about whether this is fair.
And the conclusion:
The Bottom Line
When it comes to revenue from games, the women’s national soccer team has held its own against the men’s team since the 2015 World Cup win. But games account for only one-quarter of USSF revenue. Sponsorships make up half, and it’s hard to determine what the women’s team contributed to USSF without more data.
Are the women players paid less? Sometimes. When the female players have appeared to make about the same or more money, they’ve had to turn in consistently outstanding performances on the world stage. Even with those feats, earning the same amount as the men’s soccer players was near-impossible under the previous collective-bargaining agreement.
The new agreement has provisions that may reduce the difference in bonuses for friendly games and tournaments, but there is — without question and for whatever reasons — still a massive gap between men’s and women’s World Cup bonuses.
Personally I think the USWNT should be more upset with FIFA than the USSF. FIFA is the source of the pay disparity. Perhaps the USWNT and USMNT should have just one union and thus guarantee equal pay because they are on the same contract. I never like blaming others after you collectively bargain for a deal and sign it.
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If the numbers are accurate with regard to earnings by FIFA regarding the disparity in World Cup earnings, then the only solution for the Women’s Team might be team sponsors. USNMT members would go nuts if they were forced to share their earning with the USNWT. And rightly so. I am not familiar with any big time sport where income is shared evenly among players. The $30 million per year contract given to a few baseball players is not shared with players making the $600,000 or so minimum. How much do WNBA players make compared to the NBA. Do they share?
The same is true of Olympic athletes. Swimmers, gymnasts and a couple of others can make serious money. A shot putter (for example) may have a sponsor to cover training costs, but that is it.
As a related aside, the USOC is no longer named the USOC. It is now the USOPC, the United States Olympic and Paralympic Committee, which makes complete sense, since both groups are members of Team USA and frequently train together anyway. For example, when there is a Team USA training session for throwers (shot, discuss, etc), the Olympic and Paralympic throwers train together.
In addition, after Rio 2016, the Olympic team and Paralympic team had events in Washington and went to the White House to meet Pres Obama and VP Biden at the same time. Every Rio participant had a photo taken shaking the hand of Pres Obama.
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FIFA is looking to increase the WWC prize money in the future (double it to $60M next time) as well as the general funding FIFA provides to national bodies to develop women’s soccer. The problem is that the MWC prize money is growing faster than that in absolute terms (from $400M to $440M). International interest is so much greater for the men’s game that the disparity will persist for a long time. Things get even worse once you consider their salaries for being pro players. Men’s leagues pay much, much more and men also get a lot more endorsement money.
The current women’s pro league in the US (NWSL) is the third attempt to have a pro league here. Budweiser announced they will become a sponsor and ESPN is picking up some games so this time the league should survive. But it’s a 9 team league and I’m not sure there is sufficient elite talent to keep it interesting just yet. Most of the teams have about 5 “name” players (USWNT, other international teams, future USWNT), and to be honest most Americans only know 2 or 3 USWNT players anyway. At that it is the deepest women’s soccer league in the world in terms of competitive balance. Most European leagues have 2 or 3 good teams and the rest are much worse.
The long term solution is for women to grow the game and fan interest in it. FIFA wants to expand the WWC from 24 to 32 teams as soon as 2023, but I think the group play stage at the WWC showed there aren’t even 24 deserving teams out there. As bad as Thailand was, imagine several worse teams getting in (I can’t imagine all 8 being worse). Thailand is #34 in FIFA’s world rankings. You need quality depth, not more blow outs.
For those that don’t know, FIFA does qualifying based on the 6 international confederations. Each one is allocated a set number of teams and the finishes in each confederation championship tournament determine who gets in (with a playoff where needed). Thailand finished 4th in the Asian Cup so they got one of 5 spots reserved for Asian teams. Thailand is the 6th highest ranked team in Asia, so they would be expected to make it into an expanded WWC (North Korea is #11 worldwide and #3 in Asia but they missed out due to the draw – the other top 5 teams from Asia made it).
Problem areas of the world:
1. Oceania
Currently gets 1 team. Would they get a second? At worst they’d get a playoff chance for a second team. They have #19 New Zealand who made the WWC. Their next best team is #50 Papau New Guinea (for some reason Australia is part of the Asian federation but NZ isn’t).
2. Africa
Currently gets 3 spots, would get 1 more. Unfortunately their top team is #38 and their third is #49. At least the fourth team is #51 so it doesn’t get much worse, but their fifth best team is #69.
3. Asia
Currently gets 5 spots but would get 1 more. With 5 teams in the top 16 the problem is any additional teams as they start at #34 and we saw how #1 vs #34 looked.
4. South America
Currently gets 2.5 spots but only has 2 teams in the top 36 (#10 and #26). They’d be guaranteed a third team and maybe a chance for 4 in a playoff. #37 and #39 are their next best teams, though.
5. North America
Currently gets 3.5 spots which is about right. There are 3 top 26 teams and #36 Costa Rica, but nobody else in the top 50. They’d be guaranteed a fourth team and probably a chance for a fifth, though.
6. Europe
The only area expansion would make sense for. They currently get 8 spots (plus they had the host) but they have 8 of the top 15 teams and 16 of the top 25. If the expansion is almost entirely for more UEFA teams, then WWC expansion would make sense. But I think people would scream if they got more than 4 of the 8 additional spots.
If FIFA wants to do this, I think they need to change their qualification system. Guarantee 20 spots for the best of each confederation (Oceania – 1, Africa – 2, SA – 2, NA – 3, Asia – 4, Europe – 8) in their championships so everyone has a chance to make it, but then use the FIFA rankings to fill the remaining spots so the 12 best other teams also make it.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27170117/acc-adds-holiday-boston-guaranteed-10-bowls
The ACC has added the Holiday Bowl to their list starting in the 2020 season. They also have a new bowl in Boston. Nothing says vacation like outdoors in Boston in December. As if the Pinstripe Bowl wasn’t bad enough.
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https://bigten.org/news/2019/6/6/mens-basketball-matchups-set-for-21st-annual-big-ten-acc-challenge.aspx
The B10/ACC Challenge matchups are out.
Monday, December 2
Miami at Illinois
Clemson at Minnesota
Tuesday, December 3
Florida State at Indiana
Iowa at Syracuse
Michigan at Louisville
Duke at Michigan State
Northwestern at Boston College
Rutgers at Pitt
Wednesday, December 4
Notre Dame at Maryland
Nebraska at Georgia Tech
Ohio State at North Carolina
Wake Forest at Penn State
Virginia at Purdue
Wisconsin at NC State
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Brett McMurphy tweeted out that some big realignment news possibly coming next week. Rumors seem to suggest it involves the Big 12 and Pac-12. Possibly some P12 schools interested in the B12.
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If, and that is a big if, this is true, I wonder if a couple of non-California Pac 12 schools are concerned about the possible legislation in CA effectively forcing colleges to allow players to profit off their likeness. Is it conceivable that anything close to a majority of NCAA conferences would agree to this? Would this make it even harder for the hundreds of non-P5 schools to compete against schools that allowed this income?
Would the P5 decide to form its own association to permit this? What happens to the NCAA tournaments if the P5 “breaks away”? Is this CA legislation a good enough reason for the P5 to act on its own? Is this the reason to totally revise the system?
What happens to the CA university sports if the P5 will not form its own new association? What do UCLA and Cal do? I believe that USC and Stanford must also be involved even though they are private schools. I thought that Stanford was one of the schools that said that it would drop sports rather than “pay” athletes. Is this the same thing? Of course one of the issues for Stanford was that athletes might then be employees and this avoids that problem. Could a new West Coast association with only CA, OR, WA schools actually survive?
California has extremely pro-employee laws and tries to classify workers as employees. Is there some way to twist a payment for a likeness into an employment relationship with the colleges? I do not see it, but is it CA, so who knows.
To me this likeness deal is simply a way to make buying players legal and above board. Say the superstar high school running back from Louisiana is getting ready to commit. What if the car dealer in Birmingham offers to buy the use of the kids image for $30,000 per year, as long as he goes to Bama. Then the furniture dealer offers $40,000 per year if he goes to Auburn. Not to be out done, the furniture chain in South Carolina, offers $50,000 for the use of images, if the choice is Clemson. Seems like this would all be perfectly legal. Meanwhile an equipment dealer in Louisiana hires the kid’s mother as marketing director, so she can make an offer for the kid and have him stay at LSU.
What if the star QB gets big money for his likeness, but the linemen, who allow him to stay on his feet, get nothing?
Have any of the CA legislators even considered the chance that other states or the NCAA disagree? Doubt it.
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Could this be a threat made by, say, Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado and Utah to dissuade lawmakers in California from passing that bill? Reverting the Pac to the Pac-8 would run counter to the trend to mega-conferences, causing plenty of scheduling woes. And the thought of a 14-member Big 12? If West Virginia thought it had travel problems now, imagine adding teams two and three time zones from Morgantown…
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To quote (from @ Brett_McMurphy): “Forget the recent NBA moves, what I’m looking forward to is some major hack realignment news early next week”
Someone asked right away: “Hack?”
McMurphy responded: “Reporters”
This isn’t conference realignment news he’s talking about.
There are rumors of realignment news next week (P12 schools -> B12) but I think it may all be based off of this tweet.
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UTexas still has a decade+ of Bevo TV with espn. I doubt anything happens without some resolution to that impediment, assuming both (or either) parties even are interested in a change.
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Actual news:
Brett McMurphy
@Brett_McMurphy
USC adds non-conference home games w/UC Davis in 2021, Nevada in 2023 & San Jose State in 2024. UC Davis will be USC’s first FCS opponent in school history
Leaving Notre Dame and UCLA as only to have never played an FCS school
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There was some speculation in Columbus sports talk radio that Meyer might be a candidate for the USC job. Considering his health issues, that seems unlikely. But his need to be a coach might make it possible. His wife would object.
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I’d think there may be some torches and pitchforks possibly heading toward Heritage Hall. Destroy history and a Trojan tradition that only two schools share? For a shot at a short term rent-a-coach?
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He’s trolling that every year some “hack” starts some far fetched realignment news during media days.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2019/07/15/college-football-budget-cuts-scheduling-loom-over-sec-media-days/1732598001/
Dan Wolken argues that the SEC needs to improve their OOC scheduling.
The first is a clear ramping-up of non-conference scheduling by some of the top programs, albeit with games several years into the future. The second is a recent announcement of athletic department budget cuts at Ole Miss and Auburn, whose spending had ballooned over the last half-decade as SEC Network money started rolling in.
…
But here’s the reality that is making many athletics directors across the league uneasy, even as they collected $43 million in revenue share from the league last year: After the initial budget pop, SEC Network dollars are flattening and fewer fans are interested in sitting outside for four hours in the September heat to watch mismatches. Some schools are turning to increased alcohol sales in the stadium to grow revenues after the SEC relaxed its rules this spring, but for now, it’s getting harder to find new ways to tap into the money spigot.
…
It should catch everyone’s attention when Auburn — an athletics program whose annual revenues have gone from $82 million in 2007 to $147.5 million in 2017 — is reducing expenses by 10 percent across all sports.
To be sure, Auburn is in much better financial shape than all but a handful of major program, but recent expenses have eaten into its surplus. In an article on AuburnSports.com, Auburn athletics director Allen Greene described the nature of cuts as mostly cosmetic — having teams stay at more budget-friendly hotels on the road, eating at Outback as opposed to Ruth’s Chris, perhaps more bus rides for away games than charter flights.
Similarly, interim athletics director Keith Carter told the Ole Miss Spirit that his department’s budget would be reduced by 8.5 percent but that none of the cuts would impact salaries or recruiting.
Ole Miss is typical of the challenge athletics directors across the country face. As of July 9, the school said it had sold 31,195 season tickets and had started selling mini-plans to incentivize people to come to the stadium. Just a couple years ago, the school had more than 50,000 season ticket holders.
…
People can talk all they want about the “in-stadium experience” or improving WiFi access or putting in party decks to cater to millennials, but at the end of the day, the best way to get people into the stadium is by scheduling better games.
…
But in 2019, that may no longer work as schools try to cultivate new ticket buyers and grow revenues. For many years, rival leagues have been frustrated by the SEC’s self-serving scheduling philosophy. Ultimately, though, it’s the fans that are going to force the SEC to change.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2019/07/16/american-commissioner-aresco-no-plans-to-replace-uconn/39691171/
The AAC more officially says it has no plans to replace UConn. They’ve also asked the B10 about scheduling with 11 teams.
Schools interested in joining the American Athletic Conference after Connecticut leaves can call Commissioner Mike Aresco. The AAC will not be soliciting applications for membership.
Aresco said Tuesday at the American Athletic Conference media day that the league is leaning toward not replacing UConn and going forward with 11 football schools after the Huskies depart for the Big East.
“One thing we decided early on: We weren’t going to be making phone calls. We weren’t going to be targeting anyone,” Aresco said. “People have my phone number. If somebody was interested in our conference we’d listen because we would have a fiduciary obligation to listen.”
…
The American has already looked into scheduling an 11-team football conference, which would include abandoning the current division format while still playing an eight-game slate.
Aresco said conference officials already have been in touch with the Big Ten, which had 11 teams for 20 years after Penn State joined in 1993. The American could mimic the Big Ten’s old format, giving each team two permanent annual opponents to cultivate rivalries while rotating the other six opponents.
The American is committed to continuing its football championship game. That will require a waiver from the NCAA — one that the conference is likely to get.
…
UConn football is likely heading toward independence, with most of its sports set to return to the basketball-centric Big East. [UConn AD David] Benedict said while that has not been finalized, it is a fair assumption.
AAC potential locked rivals (if they follow the old B10 plan):
Taking the 2 closest:
SMU – UH, Tulsa
UH – SMU, Tulane
Tulsa – SMU, Memphis
Memphis – Tulsa, Tulane
Tulane – UH, Memphis
The first rival is pretty obvious, the second is for regional access:
UCF – USF, ECU
USF – UCF, Temple
Navy – Temple, UC
Temple – Navy, USF
UC – ECU, Navy
ECU – UC, UCF
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https://247sports.com/college/usc/Article/USC-football-schedule-FCS-opponent-non-conference-San-Jose-State-UC-Davis-Nevada–133619414/
A little more detail about USC finally scheduling a I-AA foe.
USC’s press release states that it tried to find an FBS opponent for its 2021 schedule:
“UC Davis will be the Trojans’ first-ever FCS opponent. The Aggies have won or shared 31 conference championships, including the 2018 Big Sky title when they advanced to the quarterfinals of the FCS playoffs. USC had negotiated in recent years with a number of FBS schools to schedule a game on that open 2021 date but could not reach an agreement.”
The FCS game became a much bigger possibility after senior associate athletic director Steve Lopes spoke about a new scheduling philosophy that emphasized home games in an interview with The Athletic.
“We think, knowing what we know and having to play Notre Dame and nine Pac-12 games, is to play as many homes games as you can,” he said. “Because your record at home, you can look over time, is always better.”
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Im surprised Stanford was not on this list of programs never to play an FCS or D-1AA team. I dont recall them playing any Big Sky or IAA UC or Cal-State school. I wonder if they played an Ivy League team at some point.
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https://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/no-9-stanford-prepares-for-fcs-level-uc-davis-091318
Stanford played UC Davis for the third time last season (and lost). They’ve also played Cornell and Sacramento State. I may have missed 1 or 2 others.
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https://www.cleveland.com/osu/2019/07/michigan-named-big-ten-football-favorite-in-clevelandcom-2019-preseason-poll.html
The unofficial B10 writers poll says MI will win the B10. Thankfully the poll has a history of rarely getting it right (0-6 from 2011-2016, then 2-0 picking OSU in 2017 and 2018).
B10 champion votes:
MI – 17
OSU – 14
NE – 2
NW – 1
BIG TEN EAST
1. Michigan, 222 points (20 first-place votes)
2. Ohio State, 214 points (14)
3. Michigan State, 156 points
4. Penn State, 154 points
5. Indiana, 86.5 points
6. Maryland, 82.5 points
7. Rutgers, 37 points
BIG TEN WEST
1. Nebraska, 198 points (14 first-place votes)
2. Iowa, 194.5 points (14)
3. Wisconsin, 172.5 points (4)
4. Northwestern, 142.5 points (1)
5. Purdue, 110.5 points
6. Minnesota, 100 points (1)
7. Illinois, 34 points
CCG predictions:
Michigan over Nebraska (8)
Michigan over Iowa (8)
Ohio State over Iowa (6)
Ohio State over Nebraska (4)
Ohio State over Wisconsin (3)
Nebraska over Michigan (2)
Michigan over Wisconsin (1)
Ohio State over Minnesota (1)
Northwestern over Michigan (1)
Other notes:
• How varied was the West? Nebraska received votes for everything from first to fifth. Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Minnesota received votes for everything from first to sixth.
• The exception? Illinois was a unanimous choice for last. Illinois also received every last-place vote a year ago — and then finished last at 2-7 in conference place.
• In the East, 33 of 34 voters ranked Michigan first or second, while 32 of 34 had Ohio State first or second.
• Michigan State edged Penn State for third place, as the East had a clear top-two, a clear middle-two, a clear bottom-two, and then Rutgers. This is how the East has been viewed in many years in this poll.
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https://awfulannouncing.com/ncaa/big-12-now-espn-plus-les-miles-kansas-series.html
At media days the B12 released more details about their new digital channel. Big 12 Now will be on ESPN+ and include over 800 games per year eventually.
As per Big 12 Now in general, it’s interesting to see Bowlsby mention 800+ games. That’s presumably the total in 2020 when Iowa State, TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia join Big 12 Now; Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State are the only schools in this year, and each involved school is expected to provide over 50 exclusive home events each year. (Texas and Oklahoma are not involved in this as home teams thanks to their existing third-tier deals with ESPN/Longhorn Network and Fox Sports regional networks/Sooner Sports TV., but they’ll still be on Big 12 Now for some games where they’re the road teams.)
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https://www.si.com/vault/1981/05/25/825661/the-big-tens-big-mess-harsh-penalties-following-a-bizarre-series-of-events-have-made-some-illini-clamor-to-get-out-of-the-conference
A flashback to some dark days for the B10 and IL. This old article is about the Dave Wilson “scandal” and heavy punishment IL received from the B10. It reminds you how the B10 is (was?) much more focused on academics than other major conferences, even the P12.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27216204/delany-critical-cfp-selection-committee
Jim Delany complained about the CFP at media days.
Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany thinks the College Football Playoff selection committee must remember its mission to value conference championships and schedule strength in determining the four participating teams.
…
Delany said he didn’t understand how Ohio State, the 2018 Big Ten champion at 12-1, finished sixth in the final CFP standings, behind SEC runner-up Georgia.
“Clearly, Alabama and Clemson have separated themselves, and they have earned everything that they’ve earned in the last couple years,” Delany said at Big Ten media days. “But I’m not sure that the strength of schedule or the conference championship has been adequately rewarded.”
Delany supports the idea Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby voiced Monday to have all Power Five conference teams play at least 10 Power Five opponents. Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 teams all play nine-game conference schedules and typically at least one non-league Power Five opponent. The ACC and SEC play eight-game conference schedules, with most teams adding one non-league game against Power Five opponents and some playing two such contests.
“I’ve been disappointed, quite honestly, about the strength of schedule,” Delany said. “We’re not going to change. There may be pressure to change, but I think that’s short-selling our fans, our players, our TV partners. I’m hoping that the committee catches up with the intent of the founders.”
…
“We should be playing comparable schedules, and if we’re not playing comparable schedules, there ought to be some way to differentiate that,” Delany said. “But we haven’t had our way on that one.”
Eventually I think the B10, B12 and P12 will prevail on this. They have the numbers on their side.
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BTN streaming is changing this fall.
Beginning in mid-August, all of BTN’s network content – including games, studio shows and original programming – will be housed in the FOX Sports app alongside Big Ten football games airing on FOX and FS1. That content will no longer live on BTN2Go, which will cease to exist in its current form. Ultimately, consolidating everything into one location will make it easier for fans to find what they are looking for on game day. The existing BTN2Go app will officially transition into an app for the BTN Plus platform, which houses over 1,000 non-televised games and events as well as archives of classic Big Ten football and men’s basketball games.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/bigten/2019/07/18/jim-delany-big-ten-football-national-championship/1770513001/
More from Delany at media days.
“We’ve had a lot of projects that succeeded and a lot of projects that fell on deaf ears,” Delany said when asked if he’ll leave the Big Ten with any regrets. “I think we made some real serious mistakes in the 70s that have come to create problems for us. I think one was the loss of the four-year scholarship. One was the loss of the $15 per month laundry (cost of attendance benefit). And the other one was the loss of freshmen ineligibility.
“I think that’s expedited everything and hasn’t allowed the for the full socialization, culturally and academically, for students. I raised that issue about five years ago and there wasn’t much of a reaction. It was more of a thud. Those are areas and issues that concern me and a few others. But not really enough (to change anything).”
…
Beyond that, he believes the league is ready to break through and become a force nationally again.
“I think we’re built to win championships. I think many of the teams in our conference are built to win national championships and conference championships,” Delany said. “Our last three (Big Ten) champions were ranked No. 5, No. 5 and No. 6. I don’t know how Ohio State was ranked sixth last year, by the way. … But we recruit nationally, we have national television that’s second to none. We had resources, we’ve reinvented our stadiums. We have national class coaches who demonstrated success before they came here.
“I wouldn’t be shocked to see more of a dominating presence for Big Ten football over the next half-decade or decade.”
…
But come 2020, it’ll be up to Warren to move things forward. Delany’s excited for everything that’ll come next.
“When (Warren) comes in, what we’re trying to do is use that time in a way that gives him a sense of the rhythm of the conference. We’ll have conference commissioners meetings, joint-group meetings,” Delany said. “We’ve invited external partners in — from television to bowls to other groups. They’ll come in and spend time with him so when Jan. 2 comes he can put faces together with organizations.
“I don’t think it’ll be awkward at all. I don’t expect that it would be. We have a nice way with each other. I’m incredibly impressed with what he’s done in his life. I think it’s going to be a great fit and I”m really proud of the decision the presidents made here. One of the commitments I made was to try to be the best commissioner in transition that I can be. I’m confident I can do that.”
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https://theathletic.com/826338/2019/07/18/pac-12-football-playoff-perception-scheduling-personnel-finances/
The Atlantic takes a deep dive into recent the plight of the P12.
Title = “The pitfalls of parity: Diagnosing the condition of the Pac-12 and its tumble in college football’s arms race”
It’s behind a paywall, so no excerpts. It talks about money and recruiting among other things.
Since I’m not quoting, I’ll tie in some fan board discussion of the article below.
http://www.coogfans.com/t/the-pitfalls-of-parity-diagnosing-the-condition-of-the-pac-12-and-its-tumble-in-college-football-s-arms-race/19609
From this board:
“According to USA Today 1, only 12 of 52 public Power 5 programs generated less than $15 million in ticket sales in 2017, the most recent data available. Five of those programs were from the Pac-12.”
Those 5 are WSU, ASU, OrSU, Cal and CU in order of least to most. I should also mention this is sales for all sports, not just football.
B10 schools on the list: PU (just above last place WSU with $9.2M), IL and RU (both just below OrSU with $12.8M)
UConn was at $9.8M as a reference.
Another poster prefers to add donations to ticket sales and calls that fan dollars. By that metric, the lowest P5s are double the best G5s. Still, the P12 has 7 of the bottom 13 P5s.
The bottom 20 all get less than $38.6M.
B10 schools on that list (#1 is worst):
2. RU – $20.9M
6. UMD – $27.6M
9. PU – $30.9M
14. MN – $34.5M
17. IL – $37.3M
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/best-in-college-sports-michigan-edges-kentucky-to-bring-the-2018-19-award-to-ann-arbor/
CBS’s version of the directors cup. Unlike the real version, different schools win this one.
Previous winners of CBS Sports’ Best in College Sports award include Louisville in 2013, Stanford in 2014, Ohio State in 2015, Oklahoma in 2016, Florida State in 2017 and Ohio State again in 2018.
Formula = 2.5 * CFB + 2 * MBB + WBB + 2 other sports (from: baseball, softball, volleyball, soccer, gymnastics, lacrosse, hockey and wrestling)
2018-19:
1. MI
2. UK
3. OU
4. LSU
5. OSU
6. UVA
7. IA
8. UF
9. ND
10. UW
11. MSU
20. UMD
25. PSU
29. MN
31. PU
35. NW
36. WI
55. NE
58. IN
72. IL
73. RU
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2019/07/21/title-ix-case-could-hold-universities-responsible-hazing-deaths/1785873001/
A lawsuit over the hazing death at LSU may break new legal ground. The parents are now suing LSU, alleging a Title IX violation because the school did more to protect women in sororities than men in fraternities.
The parents of Max Gruver are seeking damages from the university after the 18-year-old died in 2017 following a fraternity hazing ritual that involved drinking dangerous amounts of alcohol. The family’s attorneys contend the university has failed to protect male students in Greek life in the same way it had with women in sororities.
In a ruling on the suit, Judge Shelly Dick on Friday partially denied the university’s attempt to dismiss the case and said, “If these facts are proven, a jury may infer that LSU’s policy created the heightened risk to Greek male student of serious injury or death by hazing, thereby inflicting the injury alleged herein.”
…
Among other things, the suit argues the university had failed to warn male students about the dangers of hazing and failed to address the bad behaviors of fraternities while disciplining sororities that acted out of line.
The selective enforcement on the basis of sex amounts to a Title IX violation, said the family’s attorney, Douglas Fierberg. Title IX is a federal law meant to prevent sex discrimination in colleges that receive federal money.
…
To hold universities accountable for the behavior of fraternities through Title IX is new ground, said Fierberg, an attorney with a long resume of representing families whose children have died in hazing incidents. He argued that the court’s decision will set “new standards” for universities.
“The entire education system has to come to grips with this,” Fierberg told USA TODAY.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27207990/position-u-which-schools-produce-most-talent-position
ESPN created a formula to determine which schools are Position U. They give the top 10 for each. They chose to base it on players since 1998 and it includes the NFL draft and NFL success as part of it. Not a definitive list by any means, but the top names seem about right.
ESPN Stats & Information dug deep into the numbers, culled details on all-conference performers, All-Americans, NFL draft picks and stars from the pro ranks, and came up with a formula to determine the official rankings for the schools best at producing quarterbacks, receivers, tight ends, running backs, linemen, linebackers and defensive backs.
We limited the debate to the BCS and CFP era, including all players who appeared in games from 1998 through last season.
I’ll only list #1 and any B10 teams in the top 10 here.
QB:
1. USC
10. OSU – surprising to me
RB:
1. AL
2. WI
WR:
1. USC
2. OSU
8. MI
TE:
1. Miami
2. IA
5. WI
OL:
1. AL
2. WI
4. MI
5. OSU
DL:
1. AL
3. PSU
6. OSU
LB:
1. UGA
3. OSU
5. PSU
9. MI
DB:
1. OSU
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I suppose if you’re No. 2 in wide receiver you must have had some quarterbacks. Also, Meyer’s QBs are not really typical of OSU QB’s. John Cooper had some good ones.
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Meyer’s QBs have probably been as good or better than Tressel’s. Haskins and Barrett hold tons of OSU passing records. And since they started with 1998, you only get Joe Germaine and Steve Bellisari from Cooper’s era.
For a football king, OSU has a terrible track record at QB. Who’s our best pro? The undrafted Mike Tomczak? Only 1 first round draft pick in over 35 years. Draft picks at QB since 1998: Haskins (unknown), Jones (flop), Smith (flop), Krenzel (flop) and Germaine (flop). Before that? Hoying, Graham and Schlichter. We’ve had lots of good college QBs, but an amazing lack of pro-level QB talent.
I’m not counting QBs from the olden days like Les Horvath.
OSU’s best college QBs (only listed at the highest level they qualify for):
HoF members – Rex Kern
Award winners – Troy Smith
All-Americans – Art Schlichter
B10 MVP – Cornelius Greene, Germaine, Braxton Miller, JT Barrett, Dwayne Haskins
Of note – Terrelle Pryor
Other full-time starting QBs:
Boeckman
Zwick
Bellisari
Jackson
Herbstreit
Frey
Tupa – better known as a great punter
Karsatos
Gerald
That gets us back to Greene in the mid-70s.
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P.S. The real question might be whether Johnny Utah and Shane Falco were really the same dude.
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https://theathletic.com/1083080/2019/07/22/pac-16-conference-realignment-2010-big-12/
David Ubben of The Athletic takes a look back at the 2010 realignment era, especially the attempt for the Pac-16. The story is built around comments from Larry Scott and DeLoss Dodds.
Dodds says he was never on board with UT leaving the B12.
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The Athletic ran an excellent piece today on Maryland’s move to the B1G at https://theathletic.com/1084097/2019/07/24/maryland-realignment-football-big-ten-acc-basketball/. And yes, I’m in the “comments” section as a vocal proponent of the move. (If you’ll recall, when the announcement occurred in November 2012, I couldn’t respond here for several weeks since I had torn a ligament and was hospitalized without Internet access. My absence led some to believe I was now in the past tense, so to speak.)
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So, in retrospect, was it a good move for MD or a bad move?
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As an outsider I think most UMD people would call it a bit a of a mixed bag but a good move overall. It will be a big win financially that saved several teams from being dropped. The downside is the loss of rivalries and cultural similarities, but I think the ACC had changed a lot since UMD joined it so the many of the rivalries had been diluted and the culture was very heterogeneous. It would help tremendously if RU became decent athletically so UMD could try to build a rivalry.
https://247sports.com/college/maryland/Article/Maryland-Move-ACC-Big-Ten-Terps-a-College-Sports-Realignment-Loser-133270246/
Here’s a non-paywalled article from 1 month ago on the same topic.
I’m asked often if the University of Maryland has benefited from its move from the Atlantic Coast Conference to the Big Ten, whether its fans have gotten over the move and if it has begun to feel more like home. My answer: yes, sort of and gradually.
…
The university traded tradition for survival. It was an awkward fit, and in many ways still feels like one; Maryland still has no semblance of a natural conference rival in either revenue sport and unless it begins beating Penn State in football or Rutgers becomes a … Well if Maryland starts beating Penn State, anyway, it’s hard to conjure a potential rivalry.
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https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/24/pac-12-after-dawn-league-exploring-games-kicking-off-at-9-a-m-pt-in-2019/
The P12 is considering 12pm ET (9am PT) starts for a few games each season in response to coaches and fans complaining about all the late starts.
The conference confirmed they have had preliminary discussions with Fox about having a Pac-12 game kickoff at 9 a.m. PT/noon ET as soon as this season in order to help alleviate night kickoffs and explore a new TV window to maximize exposure on the East Coast. While there would be at most one or two games after Week 3 that would even be eligible (and Mountain Time Zone schools like Utah and Colorado would be chief candidates), it certainly sounds like there’s a real possibility of it happening.
“We’ve discussed it recently. That would be new and out of the box for our conference but I’ve tried to put everything on the table. There’s a lot of frustration from fans in certain markets to the late night kicks,” commissioner Larry Scott told NBC Sports. “I’d like to see one or two games this season that are 12 noon (ET) kicks be Pac-12 games and see what markets might respond positively to that.”
Scott has only begun to feel out the league’s athletic directors about the idea, which he notes would be completely voluntary for the schools involved. Fans out West have been vocal about having too many nighttime kickoffs in the 5 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. PT windows, which comprise roughly a third of the league’s schedule on a college football Saturday.
“They could kickoff at 6 a.m. The hardest thing if you’re a college football player, is when you wake up and have to wait until 7 o’ clock at night,” UCLA head coach Chip Kelly added. “We don’t control our schedule and when we kickoff so tell us when we’re kicking off and where it is, and we’ll be there. If he wants us to play at 9 a.m., we’ll play at 9.”
CU, Utah and UCLA have expressed the most interest. I’ll be amazed if they get full stadiums that early, but maybe freeing up the fans for the afternoon will actually help.
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Noon starts Eastern would be 10 a.m. kickoffs in Salt Lake City and Boulder, not all that much different from 11 a.m. games in the Central Time Zone. But UCLA? Unless Bruins officials envision the Pasadena equivalent of “breakfast at Wimbledon,” I don’t see that happening.
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11 am games struggle for attendance and many fans hate them. And that’s in places that care more about football than the west does. It would require people to leave very early in the morning if they have a lengthy drive to the stadium.
I have no idea why UCLA would favor them.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/here-are-the-3-biggest-questions-looming-over-college-football-171023312.html
Pete Thamel on the 3 big issues in CFB.
When will the College Football Playoff expand?
It would be a stretch to call an expansion of the College Football Playoff inevitable, as there’s so much to change, unwind and restructure to move the playoff from four teams to eight, which is the most likely next iteration. There are player safety issues, scheduling issues and enough bowl contract reworking that the CFP may have to bring in Will Hunting as a consultant.
All that said, there’s momentum behind the scenes that something will happen, and there’s a chance it happens before the end of the 12-year contract. (We’re entering Year 6 of ESPN’s 12-year, $7.2 billion deal.) As one source said this week: “I think there’s more unified dialogue than people are led to believe publicly.”
…
“I’d put the emphasis on the complicated more than the momentum,” said a high ranking collegiate official. “Even if someone starts this in earnest, the complications are real.”
…
[bowl game and money issues]
…
There are plenty of other issues, with player safety being the most prominent. Does the regular season have to shorten to make the bigger postseason possible? “If it ever gets to that point, the calendar is going to be a big part of the challenge,” said a high-ranking collegiate official.
…
When will we see the next realignment wave?
Those crickets you hear are indicative of the realignment talk across the college sports landscape right now. One of the lessons learned from the last wave of realignment is that more isn’t always better.
…
The Big Ten, SEC, Pac-12 and ACC don’t appear likely to add schools anytime soon, perhaps because there aren’t many options that would move the needle. Good options like UCF and Houston face resistance from geographic neighbors who don’t want to empower them. “In a flattening revenue model, bringing another mouth to the table has to add value,” said a collegiate official.
Just four years ago, the Big 12 was a model of dysfunction, and some leadership was open to expansion amid a clunky and embarrassing process. Much has changed in that time, as more stable leadership has arrived at the conference. As one Big 12 official said flatly on Monday: “There’s just no appetite for expansion right now.”
One official floated an interesting theory that’s not particularly realistic (but fun to think about). He said it’s more likely that most major conferences would consider eliminating schools before adding them. And before Vanderbilt, Oregon State and Rutgers fans start shuddering, there are likely way too many legal and political complications for that notion to be a common-sense point than a reality. But it underscores that the power still lies most in the biggest brands that command the most eyeballs. The era of scurrying for quantity appears to have passed.
What’s next in player compensation?
…
For now, it will be interesting how new Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren addresses the topic at Big Ten media days here this week. (Don’t forget about the brutal optics of former commissioner Jim Delany walking away with a reported bonus of $20 million.)
Warren has a son who plays college football at Mississippi State, comes from an extensive NFL background and couldn’t possibly be more antiquated than Delany on these types of issues.
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Reducing the regular season to accommodate an expanded playoff would be necessary, but it benefits only eight schools, and it reduces income to almost 120 schools. Is there enough additional revenue from another playoff round to compensate them for their losses?
On the other hand, if the B1G and PAC12 are left out again, I can see those conferences withdrawing from the agreement, or forcing an expanded playoff.
By the way, the current 12 game season is really too long, especially for those teams that play a conference championship. Schools that get to the final game would have to play a total of 16 games. Most of the players are still in their teens and not fully developed. This is a very serious health issue.
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Does Thamel really believe: “In an era of cord cutters and subscription models and big-tech companies looming as the next potential bidders, the Big Ten adding Maryland and Rutgers for cable boxes looks antiquated. And the wave of blowout losses and negative headlines those schools have generated in football since joining the league doesn’t make the decision look any wiser.”
Yes the football has been lousy, but what is the chance that the B1G really regrets controlling the market from DC to NYC. Yes, the league shares basketball with the Big East, but obviously is the only college football for a huge population and recruiting area. The B1G does not mind going to Madison Garden.
Are all those tens of millions of potential eyeballs really antiquated? Just the New York metro area (including North Jersey) and South Jersey is close to 30 million people. Throw in Md, DC, possibly a bit or Northern Va and it is well over 35 million, or 10% of the entire country. (And this does not really consider Philly and Eastern PA, who might have already been on board for PSU).
As an aside, RU football will be absolutely lousy for a least a couple more years, which is until they have the money so that they can fire Coach Ash, who has been an abomination. I think that Ash did not realize that he was no longer at Ohio State. The first thing that Ash did was fire all of the coaches with strong NJ high school ties and bring in “his people”. Recruiting still has not recovered. I am not sure if they will even get a single top 20 (not a typo top 20) NJ player. They are in huge recruiting battles to get kids who do not have another P5 offer. Tough to compete in the B1G East when most of your recruits are mid to low 3 star players.
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Per Brett McMuprhy, UConn will pay a $17 million exit fee to the American Athletic Conference and will join the Big East in all sports but football effective July 1, 2020.
The Huskies will become an FBS Independent.
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Edit: The Huskies will have to find other homes for men’s and women’s ice hockey and rowing teams. The $17 million will be paid by the end of the 2026 fiscal year.
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1. UConn plays in Hockey East for both men and women, so no issue there. They have several potential options for rowing including the A10, CAA and EAWRC.
2. If you’re the AAC, why would you give UConn 6 more years to pay the exit fee? If they want to leave early, they should pay it all up front.
https://www.courant.com/sports/uconn-mens-basketball/hc-sp-uconn-aac-exit-fee-big-east-20190725-20190726-uao77ocncjf7foepsngivrimuy-story.html
According to sources, UConn’s exit fee will be payable in two lump sums this year and next, and incremental payments of roughly $1 million annually for the next six years.
…
“We all understood that there was a minimum exit fee that we were aware of in our bylaws,” UConn athletic director David Benedict said. “And the additional money over and above that, when you look at the grand scheme of things, we’ll be able to recover that money in short order based on the cost savings in travel as well as the increased sales we’re going to have, and all of the indirect benefit we’re going to receive.”
…
The AAC will withhold all conference revenues that would have otherwise been paid to UConn in 2019 and 2020. That money amounts to roughly $5.1 million for the initial payment and is expected to again be between $5-6 million next year.
That will leave the university owing $6-plus million.
…
The conference is said to have sought a much higher exit fee while UConn tried to negotiate something closer to $15 million or below. The sides eventually found a compromise, which involves maintaining an aspect of their partnership: UConn has agreed to schedule four home-and-home basketball series with AAC teams, men’s or women’s. No teams or years have been assigned.
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https://pac-12.com/article/2019/07/24/pac-12-football-championship-game-be-hosted-one-nfls-newest-venues-las-vegas-2020
The P12 is going all in on Las Vegas.
The CCG will be there in 2020 and 2021 (future years TBD).
The Las Vegas Bowl against the B10/SEC will start in 2020.
The 2020 MBB and WBB tournaments are in Las Vegas.
I think this is a great decision for them. LV is a destination that will draw fans for a big event and is close to many of the fans.
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https://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/07/24/stanford-coach-david-shaw-thinks-college-football-playoff-expansion-is-coming-no-matter-what/
David Shaw says CFP expansion is inevitable.
“There is no way we stay at four teams. From the day it was announced, I said that’s awesome, that’s good and that’s what we need… until we get to eight,” said Shaw. “Every single year there’s one, two and sometimes three teams that raise their hand and have a legitimate case to go to the Playoff. The only way to truly get it right is to have eight teams at the end of the year battling for that national championship.
“All I’m saying is that I’ve been around long enough to know that it’s going to happen. If we can go from 64 to 65 to 68 (in the NCAA basketball tournament), we can go from four to eight. Don’t talk about time, we can make it work.”
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https://www.sltrib.com/sports/utah-utes/2019/07/24/monson-spare-utes-your/
Utah feels like it is finally on even footing with the rest of the P12 in football. That’s 8 years to fully transition from the MWC to the P12. I wonder how long TCU felt it took them?
Kyle Whittingham stated it as fact after the ground the Utes gained last season: “Without question, this was a big step forward for our program. … We can line up and play with anybody in the Pac-12. Took us eight years to get to this point.”
The inference there is that Utah now can recruit and coach with any outfit in the Pac-12, and that it can beat any and all opponents.
The Utes have the facilities, the stadium, the school, the academic support, the setting, the coaching, the players, the fan base, the funding necessary to recruit two and three high levels of talent at every position.
Utes conference records = finishing place (in S division for P12):
MWC (2005-2010): 4-4, 5-3, 5-3, 8-0, 6-2, 7-1 = T4, T3, T3, 1, 3, 2
P12 (2011-2018): 4-5, 3-6, 2-7, 5-4, 6-3, 5-4, 3-6, 6-3 = T3, 5, 5, 5, T1, 3, 5, 1
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https://theathletic.com/1090554/2019/07/25/five-scenarios-for-the-future-of-college-conference-realignment/
The Athletic continued their week of realignment coverage with Stewart Mandel looking at 5 future scenarios.
Here’s the opening bit since it’s behind a paywall:
“The answer used to be (expansion) is on the backburner,” said SEC commissioner Greg Sankey. “My answer now is it’s been placed into the kitchen cupboard. It’s not even on the stove.”
“Whoever said there were going to be four 16-institutions conferences was wrong,” said Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany. “ … I think (the conferences) are pretty stable.”
When it comes to realignment, history reminds us that things never stay stable for too long.
Since 1990, the longest college football has gone without at least one major conference reconfiguration was the six years between 2005 (when the recently raided Big East brought in reinforcements Louisville, Cincinnati and USF) and 2011 (when Nebraska joined the Big Ten, and Utah and Colorado spawned the Pac-12.
One of his scenarios is the “College Football Premier League” with 4 divisions of 6-8 teams making up the league. As an example he lists the following divisions with 28 total teams.
East – Clemson, UF, FSU, Miami, PSU, VT, WV
Midwest – IA, MI, MSU, NE, ND, OSU, WI
South – AL, AR, Auburn, UGA, LSU, SC, TN
West – OU, OR, Texas, TAMU, UCLA, USC, UW
Schools were picked based on criteria like TV ratings, attendance, recent success and historical success.
Top 2 in each division make the playoffs.
Key points:
1. This is for football only, not all sports.
2. He suggests they break away from the NCAA to form this league.
3. Despite the name, no promotion/relegation.
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Even for dumb ideas, this is special. So 28 football teams will split from the NCAA to form this league. I take for granted that the rest of the NCAA, including the other present P5 schools are supposed to go along with this.
I presume that they will be giving up basketball, since a 28 team March Madness including all of them should be fun. What about other sports when they form their own league.
I also take for granted that the Oklahoma legislature will be happy to let OU leave OK State behind. I have not really checked closely, but I notice VT, but not UVA. No North Carolina schools, etc., etc,
Somehow I do not think that the Congressional delegations from multiple states might be very unhappy.
Yes, it is silly season, but really.
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In his plan, not that I think he seriously believes it has any chance of happening, the only change is those football teams leaving the NCAA. The status quo remains in hoops and all the other sports. My guess would be that his plan would require those CFB teams to share that increased money with everyone else in order for it to ever be implemented. So basically everyone could make more by letting the top teams chase the cash.
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I guess that my starting point for all of these nutty things is that there is at least a tiny chance that it could happen. When there were suggestions that the entire P5 left the NCAA, I did not think that was realistic, but it was not totally nuts. This is.
This move would eliminate all P5 football conferences. Either new conferences would form, or everyone else would be an independent. Pretty clearly new conferences would form.
Why would the remaining P5 teams accept having their leagues destroyed, but then continuing in all other sports, even in dream land.
How would the other P5 teams make more money, once there is no football league and no TV contracts? There would be eight B1G football teams, with the major names gone. How much is their football worth?
If all of the ACC football teams left, would the North Carolina group still play them in basketball?
The smartest thing for the remaining P5 teams would need to sit down with the G5 teams, and the Big East, and decide to simply tell the teams leaving the NCAA that they leave it entirely. They could have a perfectly good March Madness, etc. Then the leaving teams could have their football league and figure out how to deal with all other sports.
Beyond legislative action, somehow I wonder if B1G presidents or fans would be happy to see the league torn apart. B1G fans have heart attacks each time a new team is added.
Anyway, silly season should not include insanity. The Dude’s annual periodic predictions that West Virginia will be joining the B1G are nuts, but are more likely than this.
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Yes, this is totally nuts and has no chance of happening.
It wouldn’t have to eliminate the P5 in football. The remainder could reform into a P4.
Use Mandel’s example of teams that leave:
SEC – 9 (5 left)
B10 – 7 (7 left)
ACC – 4 (10 left)
B12 – 3 (7 left)
P12 – 4 (8 left)
That’s 37 P5 members left.
ACC – 10
B10 – 7 + UK, Vandy
B12 – 7 + MS, MsSU, MO
P12 – 8
Everyone could play a full round robin if they want.
How would they make more money? The P5 would still get all the MBB money they’ve been getting which is not insignificant. They’d also continue to get conference network money. And they’d get some TV money for football (even the G5 make TV money). The reduced I-A would probably add an NCAA playoff like the other levels have which would add some cash as well. Then add in their cut of the CFPL money (this is why they’d let the schools compete in other sports). This total could well be more than they make now.
To be more realistic, he should suggest these teams forming a new level within the NCAA just for football. That seems more plausible than only the football teams leaving the NCAA – I think the NCAA is an all or nothing option. Of course if a new level is formed, would the schools split the P5 rather than upgrade the entire P5? I doubt it.
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https://savecollegefootball.org/
How to save college football.
Make every game matter. Put a tangible significance on every single game. Make every bowl game matter, even the non-playoff ones. Make them matter even to teams that aren’t playing in them. Reward teams for scheduling good opponents and beating them. Punish them for scheduling bad teams and losing to them. Reward teams for building towards success. Save the Bowl system. Increase the number of relevant G5 games without distorting the current balance of power. How do you do that?
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1. Much like with the BCS, each team will be given a rank, using a weighted average of human and computer polls.
2. Based on each teams out of conference performance at the end of the season, a value will be given for every game played against each individual opponent. For an idea of what that a formula might look like, go here.
3. Each individual team score will then be averaged to form a conference score. To see how your favorite conference has fared historically with this ranking system, go here.
4. This conference score and corresponding ranking will then be used for determining byes in the playoff bracket, and slotting in to the different bowl tiers in the following post season.
5. 12 teams will be selected for the playoff. The five P5 Conference Champions, 5 at large P5 teams(and P5 caliber Independents such as Notre Dame and BYU), the highest ranked G5 Conference Champion, and the highest ranked at large G5 team.
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[the top 4 seeds get first-round byes]
The top 4 seeds go to the overall conference Champs from the best two conferences and the next remaining highest ranked members. Conference Champ or otherwise, seeded in order of their final standings. This means that the top two overall teams, regardless of auto bids, will always receive the top two seeds. They will also be seeded a favorable match-up, at most playing the 9th or 10th seed.
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Getting a bye is very important to the health of the players. It is especially important at that level of athletic talent, but all players need a shorter season.
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I agree that expanding the CFP to 12 makes no sense. That’s adding unnecessary games.
Another problem is that you already had the previous week off anyway, so the bye is less valuable for recovery. I think the benefits are felt more late in the second round games as one team is more rested. The bigger edge is that the coaches have more time to prepare. Obviously the inability to lose a bye is the best benefit.
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The deeper into the post season you go, the bigger and faster and more aggressive the players are. The disparities between players might also be larger. After all, half the players will be 18 and 19 and not fully grown. Injuries are a real problem.
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I doubt the disparities would get larger as you narrow down to the top few teams. I fully agree injuries are a real problem. They’d have to cut at least 1 and preferably 2 games from the regular season (or 1 + the CCG) to add 2 more rounds of playoffs.
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Since it’s silly season, here’s Bill Connelly’s platform for being named CFB commissioner (written back in 2017). He talks about many issues, but I’ll stick to the ones about the game.
https://www.sbnation.com/a/college-football-commissioner
His main game-related ideas:
1. Promotion and relegation
He has 7 tiers, mostly geographical (there aren’t enough western schools), that go through all levels of CFB.
2. CFP expansion to 8
8 team CFP with 6 autobids (5 autobids if the relegation scheme is implemented). Quarterfinals on home fields in mid-December.
3. Eliminate divisions
Use pods or locked rivals instead (he has a unique plan for each conference).
4. Improve OOC scheduling
Have “Bracket Buster” type OOC games in mid-November. Go back to 8 conference games to have more interconnectedness.
5. Shorten games
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https://www.athleticdirectoru.com/articles/most-important-entertainment-stories-june-july/
A look at how sports and entertainment interact based on some big stories recently.
My goal, with today’s article, is to distill down the biggest stories in entertainment and how they will influence the business of college athletics. First, I’ll explain what happened in the news, then provide my take on the situation, and finally I’ll link to the best articles to learn more.
1. Carriage Wars Heat Up
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Yes, media blackouts are increasing, and most media observers expect this trend to continue. The question is why. I see a few reasons:
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The Economics for College Athletics
In this case, it’s a direct line from subscriber fees to media rights deals.
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At bigger risk than either those two revenue streams may be the conference channels. Especially those unaffiliated with a major channel group. (*cough* Pac-12 *cough*). Even for the affiliated channels, though, there is a compromise world where MVPDs increasingly decide they only want ESPN, and don’t want ESPN’s other channels. That could mean eliminating the conference channels. (Or, as reported in the Sports Business Journal, not adding the ACC Network when it launches.)
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2. AT&T/Time-Warner Merger Turns One…and AT&T struggles to figure out the next step.
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The Future for College Athletics
The biggest impact for the NCAA is that the home of its major revenue driver–March Madness–is split between CBS and Turner broadcasting (TNT, TBS and TruTV). Right now, my biggest question is what happens to that sports programming. On their earnings call this week, AT&T said that HBO Max will someday have news and live sports, which could mean new deals are required with all their partners, including the NCAA. If AT&T sees sports as serious driver of growth–which is somewhat confusing since HBO has been moving out of sports— this could be a new revenue stream for the NCAA and the conferences.
3. Broadcast Ratings Continue to Decline
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The Future for College Athletics
As the Big Lead article below emphasizes, live sports is seen as the savior of the traditional TV bundle. Which is true, but how long it can last? For college athletics, the health of their broadcast partners will be key to keeping huge media rights deals coming. If sports alone are propping up the broadcast model, then it’s unlikely that the broadcast model will stay on its feet.
4. The FASTs keep growing.
Meanwhile, alternatives to the cable bundle continue to add users. Specifically, the “free-ad-supported streaming TV streamers”, which Alan Wolk at TVRev dubbed “FASTs”. These are even cheaper alternatives to the cable bundle than Netflix like PlutoTV (owned by Viacom), STIRR (owned by Sinclair), IMDb TV (owned by Amazon) and Tubi. They’re cheaper because they’re usually free to customers, but have advertising.
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The Future for College Athletics
The challenge for the FASTs is that the majority of their current offering is ad-supported, which means lucrative subscription fees aren’t an option. But these platforms could still be a good option for customers who want “kick back and watch” content. Sports can fill that gap. The FASTs will likely start with smaller sports that don’t demand subscriptions and highlight shows, and NCAA sports could qualify.
As the media landscape evolves, a key question going into the 2020s is which direction sports programming goes in the digital era: direct subscription like ESPN and DAZN or FAST like STIRR and Fubo Sports TV? Both could support college athletics, depending on the sport and conference.
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https://www.espn.com/soccer/united-states/story/3908663/ussf-says-uswnt-has-made-more-than-the-men
The USSF has fired back at the USWNT with a third party analysis of financial data from the past 10 years. As expected, the USWNT says all the numbers are false or misleading.
My main issue is that the USWNT collectively bargained for this deal. Did they ask for the same pay structure as the men and USSF refused or did they want the guaranteed salaries which they get but the men don’t? Is there a legal reason why they have their own union rather than merging with the men and having a more powerful union because it represents both teams? Maybe next negotiation they should just demand the same deal as the men or go on strike. Last time they asked they got a raise (in 2017).
I could see it making perfect sense to USSF to pay the teams in different ways. You offer the men bonuses for winning because they aren’t very good and don’t win much right now so it saves you money while incentivizing the men to win more. And if they do start winning, they’ll make enough extra revenue to more than cover the bonuses since there is so much money in men’s soccer. Meanwhile the women win all the time already. They don’t need more incentive to win and the bonus money is baked into their salaries. That makes it a little easier to budget for cash flow.
I won’t argue about whose financial numbers are correct because I think both sides are probably spinning the numbers. The USSF does subsidize the NWSL so their inclusion of NWSL salaries may not be totally unreasonable.
Men’s soccer makes a lot more money than women’s soccer in general. The free market value of male players is much higher as seen by club salaries (I’m aware you can’t have a free market for national teams but the clubs are a similar market). The global awareness of men’s soccer is much higher. The money from the WC is much higher for men. Is it completely unreasonable that the men might make more money?
I will also note that comparing success between the teams is misguided. The level of competition is completely different. Does anyone doubt that there is more quality depth of national teams in the men’s game? Being the biggest fish in a small pond is different from being a medium fish in the ocean. Winning the WWC is not the same achievement as winning the MWC.
Among the conclusions, which U.S. Soccer said were verified by an independent accounting firm, are that women’s players were paid $34.1 million by the federation from 2010 to 2018 in salaries and bonuses (2018 the most recent fiscal year for which information was available). That also includes the National Women’s Soccer League salaries paid by U.S. Soccer for national team-contracted players. Members of the men’s national team were paid $26.4 million by the federation over the same period, the analysis concluded.
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Cordeiro’s letter stipulated that the totals do not include money received by U.S. Soccer from FIFA for World Cup bonuses. With that money included, federation analysis said that the men earned $41 million for the same nine-year period, compared to $39.7 million for the women.
U.S. Soccer contends that it should not be held responsible for the inequity in FIFA prize money, with the winner of the men’s tournament in Russia last year receiving more ($38 million) than the total prize pool for the 24 teams in the recently concluded women’s tournament.
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As first reported by the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Soccer and lawyers representing the 28 players who filed suit in March have agreed to mediation.
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While broadcasting and sponsorship revenue doesn’t differentiate between the men’s and women’s teams, U.S. Soccer also pointed to ticket revenues as evidence in its favor.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that women’s game produced more total revenue than men’s games in the three years after the U.S. won the 2015 Women’s World Cup. U.S. Soccer countered Monday that from 2009 to 2019, the women’s game produced a net loss — ticket sales minus expenses — of $27,544,953 compared to $3,130,980 for the men over the same period.
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https://fbschedules.com/alabama-wisconsin-schedule-football-series-2024-2025/
AL and WI have scheduled a HaH series for 2024 and 2025. AL is slowly moving away from the “neutral” site games in Dallas and Atlanta to start the season.
WI had to move their HaH series with VT back to 2031 and 2032 to make room. This WI/VT series was originally scheduled for 2008 and 2009 and has been moved back multiple times (at least to 2016-17, then 2019-20, then 2024-25). Will they ever actually play?
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Contrasting viewpoints from writers that cover CU on the possibility of 10 am MT kickoffs.
Good idea: https://www.buffzone.com/2019/07/27/rooney-early-football-kickoffs-could-be-thing-of-beauty-in-boulder/
From this corner, adding one 10 a.m. kickoff at Folsom, preferably early in the season, feels like a good idea.
First and foremost, if adding flexibility to the front end of Game Day means fewer home kickoffs as late as 9 p.m., that alone would make the experiment worthwhile. Games that end past midnight locally and in the middle of the night along the east coast not only reduces the appeal of the product, but it severely limits the number of eyeballs nationally that can be trained upon said product.
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A few 10 a.m. MT kickoffs would change that. With the Pac-12 lagging behind its Power 5 rivals in football and men’s basketball, any alteration that can potentially expand national exposure, no matter how unorthodox, should be explored. The early kickoffs would allow the Pac-12 to go toe-to-toe with the other Power 5 conferences in the coveted noon ET time slot on ESPN and FOX.
Would the fan experience be all that different? Would it be any worse at Folsom than 9 p.m. kickoffs? Kicking off at 10 a.m. isn’t entirely unprecedented at Folsom. Per CU associate athletic director of sports information Dave Plati, two somewhat recent home showdowns against Nebraska on the Friday after Thanksgiving kicked off bright and early, with the 2007 game starting at 10:09 and the 2003 game kicking off at 10:11.
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The Pac-12 still has work to do to show the rest of the college football world it has a product worth watching. Yet adding a few 10 a.m. MT kickoffs to the docket would at least give the league a fighting chance against its Power 5 rivals in the race for the sport’s brightest spotlight.
Bad idea: https://www.denverpost.com/2019/07/27/cu-buffs-football-early-kickoffs-rick-george/
See, here’s the thing, Larry Scott: In the college football ratings game, conferences don’t sell.
Brand names do.
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Your teams that the country doesn’t care about kicking off at the crack of dawn won’t suddenly make people sit up and watch.
Your teams rolling out there and kicking the snot out of the brands that folks do care about will.
“I’m open-minded about it,” CU Buffs athletic director Rick George says of Scott’s latest gambit from Pac-12 Media Day, where the commissioner floated the notion of league kickoffs at noon eastern — 10 a.m. local time — on a Saturday.
“But my concern is getting the students there. The students are a big part of the atmosphere that you have, and having a 10 o’clock in the morning kick might be challenging.”
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“There are some positives, too, so I don’t want to seem like I’m negative on this,” George notes. “I’m not. I just think there’s a lot of research that we need to do.”
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As far as George knows, just because CU is the easternmost outpost of the loop doesn’t mean it’s necessarily first in line for the Pac-12’s kickoff experiment. And George, also as far as he knows, has the power to decline the time slot.
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“I’m not saying a firm, respectful no at this point. I want to do a little more (research),” George said. “I think having more information up front would be helpful as we move forward.”
Well, there’s this: According to the web site SportsMediaWatch.com, of the top 10 most watched regular-season college football broadcasts each week during the 2018 season, an average of 2.4 games among the top 10 kicked off at noon eastern time or earlier. Conversely, the games that started at 6 p.m. New York time or later — prime time — made up an average of four games in the top 10, or nearly twice as many as the Eastern lunch hour.
Also: Of the 33 most-watched contests in the Pac-12 according to SportsMediaWatch.com — live television and streaming — since August 2017, only three of those tilts, 9 percent, kicked off before 2 p.m. eastern, noon Denver time.
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“I think it gives us an opportunity to be creative if we choose to do it,” George said. “But I’d really like to hear more from our fans on their thoughts. I’ve seen some polls out and it’s kind of mixed.”
To put it mildly. The Denver Post conducted an informal poll on Twitter shortly after word of Scott’s gambit got out. Of the 177 initial respondents, 62 percent said a morning kick was lunacy, compared to 38 percent in favor.
As for his ratings data:
1. Of course more of the top games had prime time starts. That is when the best games are scheduled by the networks (except CBS). I’ll be curious to see if that changes as Fox puts more emphasis on their noon games. Clearly The Game has shown that noon ET kickoffs can draw great ratings. The P12 just needs to be judicious about which games start early. CU hosting NE would do just fine. CU hosting Colgate wouldn’t.
2. As for the P12 data, how many of their games kicked off before 2pm ET? Without that data to normalize by, his 9% number lacks context. See again point 1 with most top games being scheduled later by TV.
In 2018, I only see 3 OOC games before 2pm ET (on non-P12N channels) out of 54 total games, or less than 6%.
Let’s be clear, P12 ratings are usually weak. In 2018 only USC vs ND made the top 10 for the season (#9) with a 4.4 (7.7M).
All 9 P12 games with a rating > 2.0 in 2018 out of 54 total games listed (no P12N games):
USC/ND – 4.4, 7.7M
UW/Auburn – 3.2, 5.3M
CCG – 2.6, 4.1M
Stanford/OR – 2.5, 4.2M
UW/WSU – 2.3, 4.1M
OrSU/OSU – 2.2, 3.5M
Stanford/ND – 2.1, 3.4M
CU/NE – 2.1, 3.4M
CU/UW – 2.0, 3.2M
That’s 5 OOC games, the CCG and just 3 regular P12 games.
For comparison:
B12 – 9/56
ACC -11/61
B10 – 21/59 (no BTN)
SEC – 22/62 (No SECN)
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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/07/30/msu-ex-president-lou-anna-simon-retire/1872449001/
MSU’s former president Lou Anna Simon is retiring from MSU with some hefty benefits and dual-emeritus status. If she ends up being convicted of felonies over the Nassar scandal, then she won’t get her presidential portrait. What a harsh punishment.
Under the terms of her retirement agreement, Simon will hold the titles of president emeritus and faculty emeritus and receive three annual payments for a total gross amount of $2.45 million as well as other benefits, the school said in a statement.
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Simon was charged in November 2018 with four counts of lying to a peace officer — two felonies, two misdemeanors — as part of an investigation into Nassar by the Michigan State Police according to a state Attorney General’s office warrant filed in Eaton County’s district court.
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Simon returned to a tenured faculty position and last fall took a voluntary unpaid leave of absence while facing criminal charges in Eaton County.
The compensation package did not sit well with at least one of Nassar’s victims.
“Institutions like Michigan State University should be setting an example by holding those who allowed perpetrators to continue abusing accountable. The fact that Lou Anna Simon is allowed to retire with dignity is unacceptable,” said Grace French, a University of Michigan graduate who was assaulted by Nassar while a dancer in middle school, in a statement Tuesday.
The benefits, French, added, “could be going toward creating an environment at the university where survivors can feel supported and believed when speaking about their stories, or to create resources to help to heal survivors of sexual violence at the university.
“By allowing her to retire, MSU is invalidating the gravity of the situation, and letting the community and survivors know that the culture of abuse and lack of accountability will continue to be ignored at MSU.”
John Manly, a California-based lawyer who has represented more than 200 victims who sued the university, called the deal “nauseating.”
“How many children need to suffer before you think that somebody who was at the helm shouldn’t be rewarded?” he said.
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The retirement agreement states Simon still would be recognized with a presidential portrait, but “such public recognition of Dr. Simon’s emeritus status may be withheld if the pending criminal charges result in a felony conviction that is upheld after all post-trial motions and appellate issues are finally adjudicated.”
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If she is convicted of a felony, not using her portrait is a joke. Will they mail her pension checks to her prison spending account. Even is she is guilty of a misdemeanor, it is disgusting that MSU will more or less look the other way – again.
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https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/polls/amway-coaches-poll/2019-2020/2019-08-01/
The preseason Coaches Poll is out.
1. Clemson
2. AL
3. UGA
4. OU
5. OSU
6. LSU
7. MI
8. UF
9. ND
10. UT
12. UW – top P12 team
14. PSU
17. WI
19. IA
20. MSU
25. NW – 162
26. NE – 151
RV. MN – 1
B10 – 7
SEC – 6 (all in top 16)
P12 – 5 (none in top 10)
B12 – 3 (OU, UT and #24 ISU)
ACC – 2 (#1 Clemson, #22 SU)
Others – 2 (ND, #17 UCF)
You can see that even the poll voters think the B10W is a crapshoot (#17, 19, 25, 26, ~40).
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https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-football/news/the-bittersweet-16-meet-the-worst-power-5-teams-in-college-football-in-2019
The 16 worst teams for 2019. Amazingly, RU is not #1.
1. OrSU
2. RU
3. KU
4. UL
5. CU
6. UMD
7. IL
8. GT
9. KSU
10. WV
11. Ole Miss
12. UNC
13. AR
14. Vandy
15. Cal
16. Duke
ACC – 4
B10 – 3
B12 – 3
P12 – 3
SEC – 3
Intentional conference diversity or honest opinion of the writer?
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They may have been a little bit optimistic about Rutgers. With Chris Ash at the helm, RU will only get worse from here. I do not understand why UMD is ranked so poorly. Seems wrong to me. Of course, with decent recruiting classes things do look up for the Terrapins.
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1. It’s written by Danny Sheridan, so value it appropriately.
2. It’s not being positive about RU, it’s being that negative about OrSU. They gave up 45.7 points per game, 282 rushing yards per game and 46 sacks last year. They ranked at -45.8% in F/+ compared to -41.8% for RU last year (Clemson was at +52.7% and average is 0). OSU played both teams at home in consecutive weeks and OrSU allowed 77 points while RU held OSU to “just” 52.
3. UMD is undergoing a lot of change since the player’s death last summer: new HC who was terrible in his previous stint as a HC, new QB, 4 new OL and only 1 returning DL. They also are playing in the B10 East so they have a brutal B10 schedule. They may improve during the season but they are starting from a tough spot.
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The SEC announced their 2020 schedule yesterday.
The big cross-division game is UGA at the team that shall not be named in week #3.
P-5 OOC games are:
Week 1 – The team that shall not be named v USC at Arlington TX; Ole Miss v Baylor at Houston; UGA v Virginia At Atlanta
Week 2 – Arkansas at Notre Dame; Auburn v UNC at Atlanta; Texas at LSU; Miss State at NC State; Tennessee at Oklahoma
Week 3 – Colorado at Texas A&M; Vandy at K-State
Week 6 – Mizzou at BYU
Week 13 – Florida at Florida State; GA Tech at UGA; Kentucky at Louisville; South Carolina at Clemson
Week 12 (or cupcake weekend) includes 3 conference games: A&M at the team that shall not be named; LSU at Auburn; UGA at Kentucky
Also, LSU plays Rice at NRG Stadium in week 3 and finishes the season with 2 road games at Auburn and College Station. Not happy about that at all.
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Frank – I see that your White Sox will play the Yankees in Dyersville Iowa next season. That is so cool!
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New list of World University Rankings. Nine B1G schools in top 50 (plus Chicago and Johns Hopkins to the extent that they are relevant). I counted five Pac12 schools and two ACC schools. Texas is the only one that I saw from the Big 12 or SEC (Vandy is 64). https://cwur.org/2018-19.php
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Bernie – I understand the methodology, but several rankings just don’t pass the smell test. Would you prefer your kid to get an undergraduate degree from #352 SUNY-Albany or #429 Tulane? #128 SUNY-Stony Brook or #122 Dartmouth or #129 Rice? #253 Wayne State or #289 Georgetown? #83 Utah is on par with #80 Emory?
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll brag about LSU being the 6th best SEC school & #219 in the world. But Ole Miss (#459) close to 100 slots above Auburn (#546)?
One or two professors publishing a well-respected paper or making some discovery could greatly skew these rankings. By the way, TCU is the only P-5 school that is unranked. That should console the kid with a 3.5 GPA and a 29 ACT that couldn’t get accepted.
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https://cwur.org/methodology/world-university-rankings.php
The methodology is a little odd:
CWUR uses seven objective and robust indicators to rank the world’s universities:
1) Quality of Education, measured by the number of a university’s alumni who have won major international awards, prizes, and medals relative to the university’s size (25%)
2) Alumni Employment, measured by the number of a university’s alumni who have held CEO positions at the world’s top companies relative to the university’s size (25%)
3) Quality of Faculty, measured by the number of academics who have won major international awards, prizes, and medals (10%)
4) Research Performance:
i) Research Output, measured by the the total number of research papers (10%)
ii) High-Quality Publications, measured by the number of research papers appearing in top-tier journals (10%)
iii) Influence, measured by the number of research papers appearing in highly-influential journals (10%)
iv) Citations, measured by the number of highly-cited research papers (10%)
* 25% of the score is based on the number of CEOs of top companies. That’s the sole measure of successful alumni. Apparently everyone must aspire to be a Fortune 500 CEO. Doctors, lawyers, scientists, … are all worthless.
* Research is 40% of the score so the list is highly biased toward certain types of schools.
* What if people attended multiple schools as undergrads, or went elsewhere for an MBA? Is the bachelor’s degree more important than where a CEO went to business school?
There is no one right way to do this, but this certainly seems like a less correct way.
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Among active faculty, the usual criteria are selectivity for admission to the undergraduate program and research productivity of the faculty. To most faculty, only the latter really counts. Harvard and the other Ivies come out on top in both categories. A few public universities also score on both, but most public universities have admission standards that are substantially lower than the Ivies.
That, by the way, is how it is supposed to be. Public schools were set up to serve the sons and daughters of farmers, tradesmen and mechanics.
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ROBERT SYKES,
“Among active faculty, the usual criteria are selectivity for admission to the undergraduate program and research productivity of the faculty. To most faculty, only the latter really counts.”
Unfortunately selectivity is a highly flawed metric, biased based on socio-economic status (test scores, AP classes, activities, …), potentially skewed by social goals (diversity goals, …) and easily manipulated by controlling the size of a class. The Ivies have the resources to teach more students but they don’t want to lose selectivity by expanding.
I think selectivity is a better measure of desirability (how many people apply) than how good a school actually is. Public schools become more selective when their sports teams win more, thus increasing applications. Did the school really get any better? And as you note, different schools have different missions. Why try to judge them by one standard?
Research productivity is also flawed as the faculty model is changing. Fewer faculty are tenure-track now than ever. Many schools have added “professional” faculty: teaching faculty (must teach, can’t do research), clinical faculty (must teach, might do research) and research faculty (must do research, might teach), and those are not tenure-track positions. A lot of teaching is also done by part-time faculty such as lecturers, adjuncts and instructors. At Carnegie R1 schools, there are more professional faculty than tenured faculty already and more part-time faculty than untenured tenure-track faculty.
2017 full time assistant professor hires at 4-yr schools:
Not tenure-track (NTT) = 60.2%
Tenure-track or tenured = 39.8%
How do you measure research productivity in this environment? Is it better or worse to have professional faculty teaching classes? Does it depend on the department (medicine has long had clinical faculty)?
“Harvard and the other Ivies come out on top in both categories. A few public universities also score on both, but most public universities have admission standards that are substantially lower than the Ivies.
That, by the way, is how it is supposed to be. Public schools were set up to serve the sons and daughters of farmers, tradesmen and mechanics.”
The public schools are supposed to serve everyone’s children, the rich included. The rich just have other options.
The question becomes whether you should rank the incoming freshmen (selectivity), the outgoing seniors (alumni metrics), or the improvement that happens while they are there. The Ivies have the easiest job in teaching since they get the best and most prepared students and then the alumni provide such a strong network of connections that the graduates almost can’t fail. Once you reach that level, the cycle is self-perpetuating. I’m not saying the Ivies aren’t great schools, but I’d be curious to see how they did if they got Alabama State’s student body instead.
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I saw an article a month or so ago that said Harvard seniors knew less history than they did as freshmen. Start strong and end mediocre.
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This may be a double posting. Do not know what happened to first try. New list of top universities in the world. Nine from the B1G, five from PAC 12, two from ACC. Texas only Big 12. No SEC. https://cwur.org/2018-19.php
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https://www.adn.com/politics/2019/08/13/dunleavy-says-he-will-reverse-his-vetoes-on-early-education-cuts/
Follow up on a story from several weeks ago. The AK governor is reversing some of his budget vetoes after massive complaints. That includes $8.8M in early education programs (Head Start, etc.) and reducing the cuts to the U of Alaska system from $135M at once to $70M phased in over 3 years.
Speaking to reporters and educators at Rural CAP, the largest provider of Head Start programs in Alaska, Dunleavy said his budget cuts launched a statewide conversation about what Alaskans value. The feedback led to his reversal on the early education vetoes, he said.
…
“We didn’t dismiss any of that feedback at all,” he said. “We listened.”
“What became pretty clear I think to everybody is that Alaskans value our elders, our seniors, and we value our children, our youngest, and that’s our future,” he said.
…
The governor’s vetoes, totaling more than $400 million, sparked widespread protests and a Recall Dunleavy effort that organizers say is rapidly gaining signatures.
Later Tuesday, Dunleavy announced his intention to replace his $130 million veto to the University of Alaska with a three-year, step-down plan that includes a $25 million reduction this year and an additional $45 million cut over the following two years.
And on Monday, the governor announced he would restore funding to the Alaska Senior Benefits Payment Program, an income-based program that sends out monthly payments to some of the state’s oldest residents.
…
Dunleavy said the vetoes were necessary in order to spark a conversation. He said most Alaskans realize the state can’t continue spending its savings.
“Do I regret the angst people have gone through, well, sure,” he said. “But you could not get to this point, where folks are really talking to us about what really matters in Alaska, what folks really value, if we didn’t go through the process of reductions.”
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https://www.collegexpress.com/lists/list/percentage-of-out-of-state-students-at-public-universities/360/
Ties in to the original post. Michigan & Wisconsin both have 46% out of state students. IU and Penn St. are tied for #25 in the nation at 40%.
Other FBS schools (other than the military academies which are of course #1-#3), Alabama 65%, Ole MIss 54%, Arkansas 51%, WVU 51%, Oregon 49%, Colorado 48%, Wyoming 48%, Boise ST. 44%, Iowa St. 43%, Auburn 42%, Oklahoma 42% and Clemson 40%.
Alabama and Auburn get a lot of spillover from Georgia where UGA and Georgia Tech are both very difficult to get into. Auburn’s a little less difficult than UGA and GT, while Alabama is viewed as pretty easy to get into, especially by students from good, competitive high schools who don’t have a high class rank and can’t do a 1400 SAT.
Ole Miss gets not just regional students (TN/AL), but also Georgia and Texas spillover. A good number of Texans go to Oklahoma and Arkansas as well when they can’t get into Texas or Texas A&M.
Obviously its different dynamics that draw out of state students to Michigan and Wisconsin.
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That is not UW-Madison. Madison has about 33% out of state students. The state has imposed a cap on the number of out of state students in order to protect in state applicants.
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Much Internet chatter about Big Ten division realignment during this year’s Big Ten Media Days.
A particularly interesting proposal was posted at this link:
http://www.hawkeyenation.com/football/reshuffling-b1g-divisions
What makes this proposal interesting is not the post’s questionable goal of pursuing competitive balance. Instead this post implies an alternative method for the current “parity-based” divisional scheduling.
If MSU and ILL would swap divisions, then it becomes obvious that there would need to be three permanent cross-over games: UM-MSU, IND-PU and ILL-NW.
What is less obvious is that the four other schools could then schedule Home & Away games that rotate twice every four years.
As example for IW:
OSU/@RUT/@IND
@OSU/RUT/PU
PSU/@MD/@UM
@PSY/MD/IND
OSU/@RUT/@PU
@OSU/RUT/UM
Etc
A key feature of this alternative method is that the six schools with permanent cross-overs would need to schedule the rotating divisional opponents on Home & Home and Away & Away basis. However, these two games are balanced by the Away and Home games with the locked rival.
As example for UM:
MSU/@NEB/@IW
@MSU/WIS/MN
MSU/@NW/@PU
@MSU/NEB/IW
MSU/@WIS/@MN
@MSU/NW/PU
Etc
While eliminating divisions altogether is another Internet favorite, the above alternative may be preferable to the current method of “pulling names out of a hat” which resulted in PSU-ILL as a future permanent cross-over for the period of 2022-2027.
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As you note, the parity-based scheduling ends in 2021. Then they go to the stupidity of randomly picking teams to pair for 6 years, which just happens to give horribly biased schedules (OSU/WI, MI/NE, PSU/IL, MSU/MN, RU/IA, UMD/NW, IN/PU). Why would you lock teams for 6 years in random pairings? If you are going to do that, competitive balance is the only good reason I can think of.
I just don’t see the MSU for ILL swap as plausible. The B10 doesn’t want more locked crossovers. MSU/PU makes more sense, but I don’t see it ever happening either. If they want balance, they need to split up OSU, PSU and MI as they did in the old divisions. But that generates too many complaints, so they’ll stick with the status quo up until they drop divisions entirely.
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My opinions are the same: (1) that abandoning parity-based scheduling and instead randomly picking teams to pair for six years was stupid, (2) that swapping MSU and ILL makes no sense, and (3) that swapping MSU and PU makes more sense.
Under the current scheduling methodology: The permanent cross-over of IND/PU requires all other schools to also have cross-overs that are either permanent or are temporarily locked and rotate every six years. However, one exception would be if only six schools have permanent cross-overs (or rotate every six years). In this case, the other four schools in a division can rotate with the other four schools in the other division with a frequency of twice every four years.
Whenever the topic of eliminating divisions is discussed on the Internet, inevitably the discussion includes the grouping of rival schools that would play each year while rotating through the other schools with less frequency. For the Big Ten, usually IND/PU/ILL/NW are grouped together as part of these Internet discussions.
This suggests that for the option that MSU and PU would swap divisions, then one way to implement this alternative scheduling methodology would be to either permanently lock the four Indiana and Illinois schools (for example, ILL/PU and IND/NW) or to lock and rotate these four schools every six years (for example, ILL/PU and IND/NW for six years, then ILL/IND and PU/NW for six years, then again ILL/PU and IND/NW for six years, etc).
By the way: It is not so complicated to eliminate divisions. All that is needed is to change the current NCAA rules and instead to allow conferences to schedule a championship game without divisions, but on the condition that each school plays the same number of schools every year while also playing all other schools in the conference with the same frequency. Conferences can still decide themselves the criteria for breaking ties.
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Chet,
“Whenever the topic of eliminating divisions is discussed on the Internet, inevitably the discussion includes the grouping of rival schools that would play each year while rotating through the other schools with less frequency. For the Big Ten, usually IND/PU/ILL/NW are grouped together as part of these Internet discussions.”
While that is common in many places, we have often come up with alternative plans here that are a little better. While you need to lock 3 (or 5) “rivals”, they don’t have to be done entirely in pods.
Here’s a quick example:
RU – UMD, PSU, NW
UMD – RU, PSU, PU
PSU – RU, UMD, OSU
OSU – MI, PSU, IL
MI – OSU, MSU, PU
MSU – MI, NW, IN
IN – PU, MSU, IL
PU – IN, UMD, MI
IL – NW, OSU, IN
NW – IL, MSU, RU
WI – MN, IA, NE
MN – WI, IA, NE
IA – WI, MN, NE
NE – WI, IA, MN
So the western 4 are all together, as are the eastern 3, but there’s lots of overlap in the middle.
The pods technique does often create that IN/PU/IL/NW grouping which is terrible. Pods don’t work well for the B10.
“By the way: It is not so complicated to eliminate divisions. All that is needed is to change the current NCAA rules and instead to allow conferences to schedule a championship game without divisions, but on the condition that each school plays the same number of schools every year while also playing all other schools in the conference with the same frequency. Conferences can still decide themselves the criteria for breaking ties.”
We are well aware and have discussed it many times. You don’t even need to regulate scheduling frequency. If conferences want some schools to play more often than others, who cares? As long as everyone plays 9 (or 8) games, that’s all the NCAA should care about.
The biggest problem is the potential for repeat games, especially back to back weeks (OSU/MI, PSU/MSU, NE/IA, etc.).
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I didn’t realize they had locked opponents. I thought the idea was an 18 year schedule where you play everyone other than IU/PU 8 times in 18 years and IU/PU 6 times. It was a creative way to do it. It was discussed. Don’t know why they didn’t follow through. They almost get to play the other division every other year.
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The problem was the “parity-based” scheduling. To do that, they split each division into tiers.
Tier 1 = NE, WI, IA / OSU, MI, PSU
Tier 2 = NW, MN, IL / MSU, UMD, RU
Tier 3 = PU / IN
6 year cycle:
Crossover 1 = locked team from same tier
Crossover 2 = rotating from same tier or tier 3 (PU or IN replaces the locked team)
Crossover 3 = rotating 1 from other tier
EX. OSU
NE, @NW, WI
@NE, MN, @IA
NE, @IL, PU
@NE, NW, @WI
NE, @MN, IA
@NE, IL, @PU
Then rotate locked teams for next 6 years (OSU vs WI), then rotate again for final 6 years (OSU vs IA).
The end result would have been playing teams in your tier 10 times in 18 years and the other 4 just 6 times.
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To check my assertion that such alternative scheduling methodology would allow ILL/NW and IND/PU to lock and rotate every six years as temporary cross-overs: I prepared a sample schedule that checks/confirms the following criteria: (1) all schools of each division play the same amount of Home & Away games, and (2) all schools rotate Home & Away with a frequency not more than once every three years.
Below is a sample cross-over schedule for ILL:
PU/@OSU/@RUT
@PU/UM/PSU
PU/@IND/@MD
@PU/OSU/RUT
IND/@UM/@PSU
@IND/PU/MD
IND/@OSU/@RUT
@IND/UM/PSU
IND/@PU/@MD
@IND/OSU/RUT
PU/@UM/@PSU
@PU/IND/MD
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While not a popular idea in either Ann Arbor or East Lansing: One attractive feature of MSU swapping divisions is that possible matchups for the Championship Game would then include (among others) UM-MSU, OSU-MSU and PSU-MSU. Each of these matchups would have blockbuster ticket sales and TV ratings, especially any rematch between UM-MSU who often play in early October:
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/2018/10/28/bo-and-woody-back-thanks-jim-harbaugh-and-mark-dantonio/1777132002/
Furthermore, if MSU/PSU would schedule their “once every three year” cross-over game during rivalry week, then there would still be the chance of an instant rematch in the Championship Game. However, the odds of MSU and PSU playing in the Championship Game for any given year are likely not more than 1/3. This implies the odds of an instant rematch in the Championship Game for any given year of about 1/10 or once every 10 years (maximum).
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Some MSU fans wants it because they want the easier division, but many people don’t like the swap. The teams with locked crossovers play everyone else less often than if you have an equal rotation system. People didn’t mind not playing IN or PU as often as the price for keeping that rivalry, and then the scheduling plan forced locked rivalries for everyone so that all teams suffered. Schools care a little more about sacrificing games against MI.
“One attractive feature of MSU swapping divisions is that possible matchups for the Championship Game would then include (among others) UM-MSU, OSU-MSU and PSU-MSU. Each of these matchups would have blockbuster ticket sales and TV ratings, especially any rematch between UM-MSU who often play in early October:”
Sure you could get those matchups, be we get those every year already. They do well if and only if both teams are highly ranked, like any other game. It’s not like OSU or PSU have rivalries with MSU. Outside of the mitten state that in-state rivalry carries no special meaning based on national TV ratings. And every extra time MSU is in the CCG, then NE or WI isn’t which seems like a wash to me in terms of brands.
If the B10 just wanted to chase CCG ratings, they’d split up OSU and MI and hope they meet in December. That is by far the most valuable matchup in the B10. It regularly outperforms the B10CG. But in the old divisions, everyone complained about the possibility of a back to back rematch (though it never happened and was mathematically unlikely) and OSU and MI both refuse to move The Game earlier in the season for good reason.
With that option off the table, the sandwich divisions become the best answer (Outer = NE, WI, IA, MN, PSU, RU, UMD; Inner = OSU, MI, MSU, NW, IL, IN, PU). That gives you the new options of OSU/PSU and MI/PSU, both highly valuable.
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“With that option off the table, the sandwich divisions become the best answer (Outer = NE, WI, IA, MN, PSU, RU, UMD; Inner = OSU, MI, MSU, NW, IL, IN, PU). That gives you the new options of OSU/PSU and MI/PSU, both highly valuable.”
For sandwich divisions, the Big Ten may still desire to have one permanent cross-over: OSU/PSU. Here the alternative scheduling methodology elaborated above would allow (for example) UM/MSU and RUT/MD to lock and rotate every six years as temporary cross-overs: UM/RUT and MSU/MD for six years, then UM/MD and MSU/RUT for the next six years, then again UM/RUT and MSU/MD for the next six years, etc. Meanwhile, NW/IL/IN/PU and NE/WI/IW/MN could rotate as pairs (Home & Away) twice very four years.
But sandwich divisions work best if there would be no permanent (or temporarily locked) cross-overs.
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PSU would want it, but OSU doesn’t. Besides, PSU would get NE every year and the chance to build a top-level rivalry in the B10 since they will never be OSU’s top rival. I think the B10 would opt not to lock it for simplicity. They’d still play 3 times in 7 years.
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Current system seems fine. If there is any change it would be MSU for Purdue. But then the West sees UM less frequently. The schedule if they did that should only have the UM/MSU fixed rivalry. Everyone else rotates giving UM/MSU every 3rd year and everyone else 8 out of 18.
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Keep Calm & Hook’em Sviatoslav Richter:
https://www.npr.org/sections/deceptivecadence/2015/03/19/393778706/sviatoslav-richter-the-pianist-who-made-the-earth-move
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https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-turns-150-all-time-all-america-team-features-the-games-greatest-ever/
Some CBS clickbait. The all-time All-America team (1st team, 2nd team and HM). The earliest player dates back to WWII. Lots of questionable choices, starting with Tommie Frazier at QB.
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https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2019/08/19/college-recruiting-enrollment-tuition-in-state/1628566001/
USA Today looks at the recruiting of out-of-state and international students to public universities. U of M led the B10 schools with a more than 10% drop in in-state students from 2012 to 2017 (that’s not 10 percentage points – they went from 58% to 52% and 6/58 = 10.3%).
Enrollment of out-of-state or international students is on the rise—in some places sharply.
More than 240 public universities across the country admitted fewer in-state students in 2017 than they did just five years earlier, and for 46 of those, the share of in-state students is down by at least 10%, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System.
The data included public, four-year institutions offering baccalaureate degrees and above, not including military academies.
At the University of Alabama, out-of-state enrollment increased by more than 28% from 2012 to 2017—and that was nothing compared to University of Maryland-University College’s 37% or Tennessee State University’s 41%.
…
Residents in some states have raised concerns in recent years, demanding that universities limit out-of-state enrollment. Their goal is to make sure the universities have enough space available to serve the students of taxpaying residents.
The University of California system, for instance, had become well-known for its increasing selectivity and its skyrocketing population of students from other states and countries. In-state students at the University of California-Davis decreased by more than 20% from 2012 to 2017. In the latter year, public backlash prompted the state-run system’s regents to vote to cap the share of non-California students at 18%.
…
Institutions like the University of Alabama say they see out-of-state recruiting as a necessity to supplement their in-state numbers. For years, the National Student Clearinghouse has reported declining enrollment at institutions far and wide. Additionally, reports released in conjunction with the College Board show that in Alabama, 1,014 fewer SAT test-takers enrolled in college in 2017 than in 2012.
…
Out-of-staters also bring the benefit of geographic diversity to a campus, a factor that many institutions are increasingly cognizant of.
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ACC Network launches tonight.
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https://www.dailypress.com/sports/dp-spt-acc-network-launch-0817-story.html
I think the ACCN is available in about 36M households. That’s much better than the P12N, but comparing to year 1 of BTN makes no sense as it was the first of its kind. We know what conference networks are now.
Work remains, the most important of which is making the network available to as many consumers as possible. Availability translates to revenue, and it’s there the ACC lags far behind the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten.
Major cable providers such as Verizon Fios, DirecTV, Spectrum-Charter and Altice are contracted to carry the channel. So are streaming services Hulu, YouTube TV and PlayStation Vue.
“We’re already in more homes than were online the first year of the Big Ten Network,” Virginia Tech athletic director Whit Babcock said. “We’re in way more homes than the Pac-12 Network has today, and every (distribution) projection we’ve been given over the last three years has been hit on the nose.”
Cox Cable and Xfinity-Comcast, both prominent in Virginia, have yet to reach carriage agreements. Nor has the Dish Network, but as networks previously launched by the Big Ten with Fox and the SEC with ESPN/Disney, distribution negotiations can hinge on when previous contracts with providers end.
…
Carriage negotiations “continue and will continue through launch and beyond launch,” said Rosalyn Durant, ESPN’s senior vice president of college networks. “We do believe that the fans continuing to demand it and fans’ readiness to switch if their home provider doesn’t provide it gives notice.”
Babcock is a Comcast subscriber ready to change.
“I can get the Big Ten Network and the SEC Network in the state of Virginia,” he said, “and the reality is part of my dollars are going to those conferences out of state. I believe it’s still 40-some percent of the state of Virginia as of today won’t be able to get it unless they switch. Hopefully Comcast will see the value in it before their contract (with Disney/ESPN) runs out in 2021.”
“It’s great to be at this point,” Swofford said, “but we have been very careful with our member schools to look at (carriage) realistically.”
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I have Spectrum now and ACCN is not on the standard level, you have to upgrade to the medium level. It may be on the standard tier in the ACC footprint (I moved from Atlanta last year).
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The P12 has moved on from DirecTV.
That was just one nugget (boulder?) from Scott and Shuken that we’ll explore in a multi-part series on Pac-12’s media strategy.
…
“We’ve made a different bet than others have made,” Scott said.
…
When the inevitable question was posed recently to Scott and Shuken — anything new with DirecTV? — their responses seemed to indicate not only a lack of progress but a lack of interest in making progress.
“They’re hemorrhaging subscribers, record-setting losses, so they have to cut their programming costs,’’ Shuken said.
“They’re in a dispute with CBS” — it has been resolved — “so they have to bolster their programing lineup to get subscribers, but they’ve got to cut their programming costs because their video product is at a deficit.
“We’re seeing the satellite providers struggling (the most) because they don’t have the bundling or packaging. Video-only is a challenge in that industry.”
Before another question was asked, Scott added his perspective:
“Our presidents, our athletic directors, when we talk, we talk about skating to where the puck’s going, not where it’s been, and that’s very much where it’s been.”
Scott immediately pivoted to the media landscape in 2024, when the Pac-12 will renegotiate its football and men’s basketball rights (everything currently on ESPN, Fox and the Pac-12 Networks).
He expects a robust marketplace with multiple bidders.
”The Big 12 is doing something interesting with ESPN+,” Scott said. “Well, ESPN+ didn’t exist two years ago. DAZN didn’t exist two years ago.
“By the time our rights come up, we are predicting that not only will streaming services be important bidders for our rights, but there (are) going to be other players — some of the technology companies, and others that we can’t even name today, are going to be bidding for our rights.
“So we’re always trying to figure out what more we can do now to get more revenue for our schools, more exposure.
“But we very much have our eye on the best position for us longer term.”
That would explain the conference’s decision to pass on what some viewed as a lifeline from ESPN.
…
“We’ve resisted the opportunities we’ve had to take some short-term increase in our revenue now, and maybe some help with distribution now,” Scott said, “in exchange for giving up another 10 years.”
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27379180/the-50-best-college-football-programs-150-years
The 50 greatest CFB programs of all-time. This includes all levels and all 150 years of CFB but with the past 50 years weighted more.
The formula:
Basic model
Dominance, 20% — number of national championships
Peak strength, 20% — winning percentage for best 50 seasons in program history
Since integration, 30% — winning percentage over the past 50 seasons (1969-2018)
Early modern, 20% — winning percentage over the middle 50 seasons (1919-1968). Mostly pre-integration and included some games against non-college teams
Pre-modern, 10% — winning percentage over the first 50 seasons (1869-1918) *mostly pre-standardization of current rules and many games against non-college teams
Adjustments
National championships below the FBS level count at 50%
National championships before the poll era (1936) count at 50%
Winning percentages when a team was not in Division I are reduced by 10%
1. AL
2. ND
3. OSU
4. OU
5. USC
6. MI
7. Yale
8. NE
9. Texas
10. NDSU
12. PSU
28. MSU
29. MN
50. WI
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I believe that as recently as the 70’s, or so, Yale had the most football All Americans.
There at least two movies about Yale:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hold_%27Em_Yale_(1928_film)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hold_%27Em_Yale_(1935_film)
There is also the legend (hopefully false) that Harvard’ coach Percy Duncan Haughton strangled a bulldog puppy before the 1908 game.
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They claim 100 consensus All-Americans, but 90 came before 1920. The only “major” selector for AA teams was Walter Camp. Camp started naming AA teams while coaching Yale and then just kept doing it. Shockingly lots of Bulldogs made the teams.
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Part 2 of Wilner’s look at the P12 media strategy, with quotes from Larry Scott and some media experts. I want to quote a lot of it so I’ll post this in pieces.
Setup for the piece and some useful info.
Those traits also spurred Scott to arrange for the Pac-12’s media rights to expire at the same time: All the football and men’s basketball content currently seen on ESPN, Fox and the Pac-12 Networks will be available for purchase at the end of the 2024 fiscal year.
That last move, while not nearly as well publicized as the others, is the source of Scott’s unrelenting optimism about the Pac-12’s negotiating position during the next round of media rights deals.
“You talk about the future and 2024,’’ he said recently, “and we’ve looked at when everyone’s rights expire. And there’s not a lot of college football content that’s going to be available in next 10 years.
“The Pac-12 will have more than anyone else that’s going to the market.”
In Scott’s vision, he saddles up to the table holding so many cards that there is a royal flush in there somewhere:
…
It all adds up to a supply-and-demand jackpot for the Pac-12 and vindication for the conference’s controversial strategy.
Which is, of course, Scott’s controversial strategy.
“Larry is betting that people’’ — namely, Fox and ESPN — ‘’will renew, and that he’s first in,’’ an industry source said. “College football is powerful content.”
In addition to discussing the Pac-12’s media strategy with Scott and Pac-12 Networks president Mark Shuken last month in Hollywood, the Hotline reached out to a half-dozen industry analysts to gain context. (They agreed to offer an assessment but requested anonymity.)
The responses suggest an appreciation for Scott’s decision to set a universal expiration date for the Pac-12’s premium inventory but also skepticism about the Pac-12’s end-game.
Let’s dive in …
…
The landscape is central to Scott’s strategy. Here are the expiration dates of all the current Power Five deals based on published reports (years are fiscal, not calendar):
ACC
Tier 1 (ESPN): under contract through 2036
ACC Network (ESPN): through 2036
Big 12
Tier 1 (Fox and ESPN): through 2025
Tier 3/local rights: various dates (owned by schools)
Big Ten
Tier 1 (Fox and ESPN): through 2023
Big Ten Network (Fox): through 2032
Pac-12
Tier 1 (Fox and ESPN): through 2024
Pac-12 Networks (no partner): through 2024
SEC
Tier 1 (Game of the Week on CBS): through 2024
Tier 1 (ESPN): through 2034
SEC Network: through 2034
The timeline for negotiations, in other words, should play out like this:
— In late 2021 or early 2022, the Big Ten begins negotiating deals for the 50 football games (approximately) currently on ESPN and Fox.
— In late 2022 or early 2023, the SEC begins accepting bids for its small but immensely valuable Game of the Week package. (The conference could jump ahead in the cycle and renegotiate with CBS in the next 12-18 months.)
— In late 2022 or early 2023, the Pac-12 begins accepting bids for approximately 75 football games (40-something on ESPN and Fox and the additional 30-something on the Pac-12 Networks), plus its men’s basketball inventory, which is far less valuable.
— In late 2023 or early 2024, the Big 12 begins negotiations for its Tier 1 package on ESPN and Fox. (The local rights could potentially be included in the package if the conference overhauls its model.)
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Comments from analysts:
“By the time our rights come up,” Scott said, “we are predicting that not only will streaming services be important bidders for our rights, but there (are) going to be other players — some of the technology companies, and others that we can’t even name today, are going to be bidding for our rights.”
It sounds grand and could prove glorious for the conference.
But industry analysts raised concerns on multiple fronts.
*** What happens until the new deal in FY25?
Pac-12 schools currently receive smaller media rights distributions from the conference office than their peers in the SEC and Big Ten — and even those in the Big 12 (when local rights are included).
The concern, as expressed by Oregon athletic director Rob Mullens, is that Pac-12 schools are “drifting out of range” financially and will be unable to compete on important matters like salaries and facilities.
…
And during that time, other conferences will experience massive revenue injections:
ACC schools will benefit from the ramp of the ACC Network, which launched last week.
The SEC could blow everyone away with a new CBS deal that’s negotiated sooner than later.
And not only will the Big Ten hit the marketplace a year before the Pac-12, but it’s expected to receive increasing annual payouts from its Big Ten Networks deal, according to an industry source.
As early as FY21, according to Hotline projections, the campus distributions could look something like this (given a new SEC contract with CBS)
SEC: $63.4 million per school
Big Ten: $52.1 million per school
Big 12: $41.7 million per school
ACC: $38.5 million per school
Pac-12: $36.5 million per school
Said the source referenced above: “The Pac-12 is facing a gigantic revenue shortfall. You have to understand the ramp up of other networks.”
*** Jackpot size and quality of product.
…
Asked about the state of the product headed into the 2023-24 negotiating window, Scott said:
“Absolutely, we want the strongest ascendant football conference possible when going to market. It just makes sense. We want as much fervor, as much excitement, as possible, which obviously does correlate to viewership and to engagement.
“But at least up until now, what we’ve found is there’s not a lot of premium big brand college football out there, and often at times what seems to be the bigger driver (of rights fees) is who needs to have the highest quality college football: Who’s available? …
“So of course (quality of play) is a driver — it has to be. But there are other factors, as well. It’s not the only factor.”
The question, it seems, is whether the Pac-12’s lack of resources relative to Power Five peers (over the course of years) will impact the football product to the point that it cannot command maximum dollars.
It’s not like the conference is thriving on the field right now.
“The big brands are struggling,’’ one analyst said, then added:
“I don’t disagree with (Scott) about all the rights coming up at once. But the way he talks, it seems like they anticipate the market being greater than it’s going to be. Now, maybe over the next four or five years, something happens in the digital space or with the current linear players that triggers more investment.”
*** What if the actual market isn’t the anticipated market?
Nothing would undercut Scott’s plan for a jackpot more than a marketplace that’s soft in all the wrong places.
What happens if Fox devotes so much capital to extending its deals with the Big Ten and NFL that it opts against a whatever-it-takes approach to retaining Pac-12 rights?
What happens if the Pac-12’s best offers come from the wrong companies?
Scott and Shuken are counting on new media players bidding on the full load of football and basketball rights, but those new players could lack one important element: Reach.
…
“You simply cannot sequester yourself,’’ one analyst said.
If reach matters, then legacy media companies with new bundles and enhanced methods of delivery (hello, ESPN+) would seemingly be the Pac-12’s best option.
And if that’s the case, it might not matter how many new entities kick the tires.
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It appears that the first football injury was also suffered in the first game when a Rutgers player suffered what was the first football head injury. https://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/2019/08/the-wild-story-of-college-footballs-first-head-injury-150-years-ago-at-rutgers.html
There was a little blurb in USA Today which illustrates how stupid NJ and Rutgers are about history. The blurb relates to the opening of football season. It is pointed out that those who want to see something about the start of basketball, can go to Springfield, MA, and there is a statue. For baseball go to Hoboken, NJ and there is a small plaque.
For the first football game ever, go to a parking lot at Rutgers and there is a sign warning that illegally parked cars will be towed. Nothing about football.
How sad.
Actually, it is a bit surprising that there is even a plaque in Hoboken for the first baseball game. NJ, “Crossroads of the Revolution”, is full of historic Revolutionary War sites. Washington and his army were all over the state. Washington had a major headquarters in Morristown, NJ. There is a tiny national park there, but it is not widely advertised or used as a tourist site. There are a few other sites with small parks, but that is it.
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I grew up in Boston, and the City is saturated with monuments, not only to the Revolutionary War, but the the Civil War, and just about every other war or major event with any connection to the City. Northeastern University has a plaque marking the site of the first World Series (won by Boston 5 to 3).
Then I went to Purdue, and later joined tOSU. Indiana and Ohio seemed almost oblivious to American history, at least to someone who had grown up saturated in it. D-Day, in particular (my father landed 6/7) seemed to be minimalized.
I am surprised the NJ suffers the same sort of amnesia. Cultural and ethnic turnover have been going on a long time in NJ. Is it that each new wave of migrants ignores the histories of their predecessors?
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My theory is that NJ politicians never figured out a way to get graft out of the history of the State. There could be a major park at the point where Washington crossed the Delaware, at the headquarters of the Colonial Army, etc., but how can politicians and their supporters steal money?
(Not that I am necessarily against friends of a Governor getting special totally legal goodies, such as appointment to State Boards. I enjoyed mine.)
I have driven through quite a few states and NJ is pretty much the only one that does not have welcome centers with maps and tourist pamphlets at every entrance into the state, or close to there. For example driving north along I95 from FL to NJ, every state prior to NJ has at least one Welcome Center, with state maps, tourist pamphlets, etc. Not NJ. The same is true of going west on I80. Nothing in NJ. For some reason, there is a Welcome Center coming south from NY State along the Garden State Parkway. I assume that a local politician got control of that many years ago when the Parkway was built.
My cynicism is not just theoretical. I knew quite a few of the players.
A great example of NJ doing things based on graft is the medical school situation. Many years ago, the medical school and teaching hospital in Newark were part of Rutgers. (The MBA and law school programs are also in Newark, Camden, or both, not New Brunswick. All of the other grad schools are in New Brunswick). Anyway, some genius realized that if the med school and hospital were independent it would be a great piggy bank, and it was for many years. People (including doctors) were on the school or hospital payroll for $100,000+ per year for no show jobs.
Finally, after many years, a bunch of people were indicted and the politicians realized that the game was over. So the University of Medicine and Dentistry of NJ in Newark (and its hospital), Robert Woods Johnson teaching hospital and RWJ Medical School in New Brunswick, the School of Osteopathic Medicine, the Cancer Institute of NJ, the College of Nursing, etc., all merged back into Rutgers. In fact, the current, about to retire Pres of Rutgers, Robert Barchi, was brought in specifically to oversee the merger.
Barchi knew nothing about sports and did not care about sports, but he did his job and the merger went quite smoothly considering how many moving parts were involved. The addition of all of these medical institutes clearly has added a great deal to Federal grants and other research money to the university.
That also was, I am sure, of interest to the B1G. With all of money available for joint university research projects, having two major medical schools and hospitals, plus the Cancer Institute of NJ, was probably an attractive addition to the collection of B1G medical schools. (No, not nearly as important as NY/NJ area eyeballs, but important on the academic side)
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To be fair, the midwest has less non-native history than New England. I think the Revolutionary War is what makes New England so history focused and that’s just not possible in the midwest. Nor do we have the Civil War battlefields of the south and mid-atlantic. I see little historical markers all over the place in Ohio, but they are for Indian battles or canals or or other things.
National Historic Landmarks:
MA – 189 (#2 behind NY’s 274)
OH – 76 (#7)
Boston alone – 57
The NHL’s are dominated by NY, MA, PA (168), CA (145) and VA (121). Then comes the midwest with #6 IL (87) and #7 OH.
But hey, do we really need to say more than that Ohio was first in flight, first on the moon and first in US presidents (depending how you count)?
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Next part from Wilner. This time he talked to 6 industry insiders about the idea of the P12 selling an ownership stake. The consensus is that it doesn’t make sense for the schools. Taking out a centralized loan or selling a majority stake in P12N would make more sense.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/CFB150teams/the-150-greatest-teams-college-football-150-year-history
The 150 greatest CFB teams of all time according to a panel of 150 people. I’m sure there will be nothing to argue about.
Personal notes:
1. Lists like this always show the bias towards undefeated seasons. The top team with a loss is #31 1971 OU, but their only loss was 35-31 at home vs #1 1971 NE on a TD with under 2 minutes left. Were they really not better than some of those other top 30 teams?
2. These lists show OSU’s one historical weakness as a program. While perhaps the most consistently very good program in CFB, OSU has not produced the elite teams that other top programs have.
OSU – #13, 34, 61
Top 10:
1971 NE
2004 USC
1972 USC
1995 NE
2018 Clemson
2005 UT
2001 Miami (also #11)
1979 AL
1956 OU
2009 AL
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The NCAA has responded to the likely California legislation allowing athletes to make money from their likeness. The NCAA has written to CA Gov. Gavin Newsome and stated that the legislation would make California schools ineligible to compete in the NCAA and that the NCAA feels that the CA law is unconstitutional as a violation of the commerce clause. The president of Ohio State is the chair of the NCAA Board of Governors and he confirmed that the NCAA would consider legal action.
One of the issues to the NCAA is that the CA schools would have a major competitive advantage.
CA responded that it would be an anti-trust violation to exclude the CA colleges. It appears that the CA will not take effect for three years and will give the NCAA time to agree with CA.
To me this is incredible arrogance by CA (surprise). I do not personally see the commerce clause argument, since I am not totally sure how the CA law interferes with commerce between the states. Perhaps it does, but that is simply not an area of my expertise. On the other hand, I also cannot see how the NCAA keeping its own rules is an antitrust violation.
The fact that the president of Ohio State is the chair of the NCAA Board of Governors and is out front is very important. This must mean that at least the B1G and probably the rest of the P5 are united against the CA law. Certainly the Group of 5 and non football schools must also be very unhappy about this, since there would be no way that they could compete against the P5 schools if players could profit off their likeness. I take for granted that the local car dealer in Alabama will pay a Bama player much more than he can earn at most other places.
The NCAA has no choice other that to stick to its own rules. If the NCAA wants to make changes it can, but it cannot allow one state to force changes. What if Texas or Florida decided to impose its own rules that contradict those of California? That would be fun.
If Gov Newsome signs the bill, it seems to me that the NCAA would have to announce ineligibility of CA schools fairly soon, since UCLA or USC, for example, could start recruiting by telling players that in three years they will make a lot of money in Los Angeles by selling their likeness. That has to be preempted soon.
https://usatodayhss.com/2019/ncaa-letter-california-fair-pay-to-play-bill-unconstitutional
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I think the NCAA really just wants time to finish their own process of changing the NIL rules rather than having them imposed piecemeal from outside. I think the CA bill is good in that it forces the NCAA to act on this issue in a timely fashion rather than dragging it out for years and years. I think implementation of the the CA bill would be terrible as the NCAA would have to exclude CA schools that are working under a different set of rules.
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This seems to raise several questions and some unintended consequences. What do the other PAC schools do? Hard to imagine they stand for an unfair advantage to the CA schools or if they’re banned from the NCAA. My guess would be AZ & ASU look to the Big 12. That would probably end expansion right there. Now do the remaining PAC schools try to form there own conference? It would be tough, but what choice do they have and of course Larry Scott’s $$$$$ Bonanza (allegedly) goes up in smoke.
I guess you could argue that revenue sharing in a conference is interstate commerce.
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I think that the NCAA has no choice other than to confront CA. Any concessions will just lead CA to do something else to control sports, or lead to another large state to respond.
It would need to be a major sports state like TX or FL, that responds or it could be ignored. What if Texas allowed schools to pay players directly? UT and TAMU could afford it. A state where high schools build $60 million football stadiums could pay college players.
Theoretically, with no legal action happening, all non California NCAA schools could refuse to play any CA school, except for games under contract. That might leave virtually all CA schools out of any NCAA tournaments anyway, other than the league champion in the basketball tournaments and perhaps a couple of other end of season tournaments for league champions. Is that an anti-trust issue?
Even a school like ND might go along, since ND has stated that they are very much against “paying” athletes. Would the B1G refuse to play the PAC in the Rose Bowl. Entirely possible.
There are four P5 schools in CA. Even if the PAC stayed together, it would be very easy for the other four conferences to put the four CA schools in an intolerable situation.
Alternatively, how much would some big money tech outfits pay players to go to Stanford or Cal? How much money is there in LA to pay for a likeness? If the entire PAC went along, how much would Nike need to pay for athletic images of football players to have a dozen high school All-Americans come play for the Ducks every year?
Imagine a new series of Nike basketball shoes with images of high school All-Americans. What would it cost for Oregon to get three basketball superstars in every class? Nike could afford it and probably would make a profit on the deal. A couple of million dollars a year for the Duck basketball players could be a sound investment.
Without very tight NCAA and school controls, where would this end?
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“Without very tight NCAA and school controls, where would this end?”
Which is what this law would disallow.
I did attend Lewis and Clark College a couple years before transferring. Wonder if they stream their games.
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No new essay in 16 months. No new comment in 2 weeks. This blog is dead.
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I’ve been too busy this fall. Someone else will have to carry the load for a while.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-are-fewer-easy-wins-for-the-power-five-just-ask-the-pac-12/
538 looks at the falling W% of the P5 versus the G5. The P12 is “leading” the way lately going just 8-6 this year and 9-6 last year.
In the past 15 years, among schools that have been Power Five members for all of that time, only Ohio State, Southern California, Florida and Texas have been spared.
I am surprised the list is that short.
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Welcome back, Brian.
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USA Today has published a list of FBS college football head coach salaries. https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/football/coach
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https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/football/coach
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https://www.colorado.edu/today/2019/10/18/study-finds-no-link-between-youth-contact-sports-and-cognitive-mental-health-problems
A new study by CU found some good news for football.
Adolescents who play contact sports, including football, are no more likely to experience cognitive impairment, depression or suicidal thoughts in early adulthood than their peers, suggests a new University of Colorado Boulder study of nearly 11,000 youth followed for 14 years.
The study, published this month in the Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, also found that those who play sports are less likely to suffer from mental health issues by their late 20s to early 30s.
…
The study analyzed data from 10,951 participants in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, a representative sample of youth in seventh through 12th grades who have been interviewed and tested repeatedly since 1994.
Participants were categorized into groups: those who, in 1994, said they intended (during the upcoming year) to participate in contact sports; those who intended to play non-contact sports; and those who did not intend to play sports. Among males, 26% said they intended to play football. While the authors were not able to confirm directly that intention to play resulted in actual play, participants were asked the same question on intention to participate in sports during an in-home visit approximately one year later. On the whole, participants were consistent with their reporting on intent to participate in sport.
After controlling for socioeconomic status, education, race and other factors, the researchers analyzed scores through 2008 on word and number recall and questionnaires asking whether participants had been diagnosed with depression or attempted or thought about suicide.
“We were unable to find any meaningful difference between individuals who participated in contact sports and those who participated in non-contact sports. Across the board, across all measures, they looked more or less the same later in life,” said Bohr.
Football players – for reasons that are not clear – actually were less likely to be depressed in early adulthood compared to other groups.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28006975/fsu-athletic-director-david-coburn-says-there-was-no-advantage-waiting-fire-willie-taggart
FSU is officially crazy. Not only are they going to pay almost $20M as a buyout (why would Taggart agree to a penny less?), they are openly listening to the boosters about the new hire.
Though Coburn was not ready to discuss the financial ramifications, he said the buyout paid to Taggart would be in the $18 million range but that discussions are ongoing and there is no timeline for a settlement. Asked how a cash-strapped athletic department could make the decision to pay out such a large number to move on from its head coach, Coburn discussed lagging season-ticket sales and booster contributions as being large factors.
“It was not an easy decision,” Coburn said. “You have to look at season-ticket sales, renewals, new tickets moving forward. Obviously those are tied to booster contributions to the annual fund. You’re looking at the implications for concessions, parking, you look at that vis-a-vis the cost of a buyout, cost of a new coaching staff, you have to make a decision.”
Coburn said the university would hire a search firm to help find a new coach, and the Florida State boosters would also play a role in the decision.
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Geaux Tigers!
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The LSU Tigers’ 46-41 win over the Crimson Tide was the highest-rated regular season college football game on any network in eight years, CBS Sports announced on Sunday, garnering a 9.7/24 national household rating/share.
An average of 16.636 million viewers watched LSU-Alabama, the most people to watch a regular season game between the teams since the Tigers last won in the “Game of the Century” in 2011.
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Who can turn down the rare chance to watch Alabama lose? It’s a shame they came back to make it close rather than an LSU blowout.
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ESPN article on whether Nebraska football will ever return to glory. https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28021916/is-nebraska-football-too-far-gone-even-scott-frost
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https://knowrivalry.com/category/ncaaf/
Two professors collected sports rivalry data (not just on CFB) by giving fans 100 points to spread amongst their rivals. They also asked some opinion questions.
OSU-PSU was the second most uneven rivalry in the B10, behind UM-MSU (#8 nationally for disparity). Obviously the root cause of both is OSU-UM with OSU fans giving The Game 90.71 out of 100 total points and UM fans giving 68.84. At 159.55 total points, that was the second biggest rivalry in CFB behind UA-ASU.
OSU-PSU: 3.51 vs 37.43
UM-MSU: 16.83 vs 66.75
PSU fans put Pitt 2nd and UM a close 3rd.
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https://bigten.org/news/2019/12/3/big-ten-announces-football-all-conference-teams-for-defense-and-special-teams-and-select-individual-honors.aspx
The earth almost spun off its axis, but the B10 coaches saved us by yet again finding someone other than the OSU head coach to award the B10 CotY award. Going 12-0, being #1, dominating on both sides of the ball all while being a first-time head coach at any level is apparently not enough to win the award. PJ Fleck got it for beating 1 good team (PSU) all season and losing to the other 2. The writers risked life as we know it by selecting Ryan Day.
Day is the first OSU coach to be selected at all since Earle Bruce in 1979, but at least the coaches continued their streak of never selecting the OSU coach. Coaches voted from 1982-1991 and 2011-now, the media since 1972 (Woody x2 + Bruce is it for OSU).
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/page/CFB150coaches/the-150-greatest-coaches-college-football-150-year-history
An ESPN panel selected the top 150 CFB coaches of all-time, including coaches from all divisions and not considering any NFL coaching.
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And Urban Meyer is ranked 46th. Who were the ESPN clowns?
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Frank,
How can not have something to say about DePaul being back from the dead? They are 9-1 and receiving poll votes.
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Is Frank OK?
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He still tweets, he has just abandoned this blog.
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Thanks. Glad that he is OK.
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https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Breaking-News/2019/12/SEC.aspx?fbclid=IwAR1BV6I6NqSKgHPDOrScpdSJIPMM8_OG8vfUr7vg-_CZXaj8xHkKfYS_txA
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Alan, I just want to wish your team good luck. I think OSU got hosed by the refs on at least one of those reviews, but it is what it is. At least I can root for Joe Burrow (and Clemson losing). This is an absolute dream season for LSU, undefeated with a Heisman-winning QB and the national title game in New Orleans. The atmosphere will be insane down there.
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Thanks Brian. I was hoping your Buckeyes would make it down here.
Yes, this has been a dream season and Joe Burreaux has been incredible. If we win the NCG, Burreaux’s season will go down as the greatest season of any QB in the history of college football.
I’ll be there
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https://www.bizjournals.com/birmingham/news/2019/12/23/sec-football-to-leave-cbs-after-2023-with-espn-abc.html
I know this blog is essentially dead, but this story is too big and relevant not to mention.
The SEC is leaving CBS after their contract ends in 2023.
CBS decided to exit the negotiations for college football’s most-watched TV package after making an aggressive bid in the neighborhood of $300 million per season – a massive increase from the $55 million it currently pays annually.
…
Multiple sources said ESPN/ABC is in the final stages of negotiating a deal that is expected to pay more than six times the $55 million per year fee that CBS currently pays, sources said. Fox Sports execs still are planning to make an official bid presentation at SEC HQ in Birmingham next month. But sources say ESPN’s negotiations are in the final stages.
That’s 4 more seasons at $55M per year, then Disney will bump it up to well over $300M. That’s give Disney 100% of the SEC just like the ACC. How will Disney find room for that extra game per week? And how much more biased will ESPN become? And will CBS ever try to get back in the CFB business, or is Army-Navy and the Sun Bowl enough for them?
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Brian – this story came out a couple of weeks ago and I tried to post, but I can only post from my phone and the thread rejects any links. We’ve had several good topics to discuss over the last several months, but it’s too much of a pain to post from my phone.
I think the only question left is does ABC/ESPN buy out the remaining 3 years from CBS.
I’m guessing that the SEC gets an exclusive (no regional reverse mirror) for either the ABC 3:30 or 8p window every week. 10 of the 15 SEC games on CBS drew a 3.0 or higher. Of the 8 highest rated regular season games, the SEC on CBS had 4, FOX – 3, and ABC – 1.
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Alan,
I know it’s a little old but the holidays were too busy for me to post. Maybe if Frank ever created a new post you could post links again.
I don’t see why CBS would sell. They can’t replace those ratings and must be making big money on ads. Riding it out seems like the smart move for them.
Does ABC have enough windows for that? They also need to show all the other top games (ACC, B10, B12, P12). Will they drop someone else to make room? And if so, might CBS pick up those games instead?
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How much extra money per team does this mean to the SEC? I have no clue but it looks like an additional $20 million or so. Would that put the SEC up to around $70 million per team, or have I totally missed what is happening?
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Bernie,
(300-55)/14 = 17.5 so yes, close to $20M per school.
The SEC paid out about $44M per school in their last report, so they will be getting close to or over $70M by then. The B10 will be around $60M and then starting a new deal, so probably also in that ballpark. The ACC, B12 and P12 will be lagging well behind (except for schools like UT and OU, perhaps).
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Geaux Tigers!
I’m so blessed and grateful to have attended 13 of LSU’s 15 games season in what will be considered as the greatest in season in college football history!
Coach O was LSU’s 3rd choice in 2016, but swept all the coaching awards in 2019.
Joe Burrow wasn’t good enough to start at Ohio State in 2018, but won the Heisman in 2019 by the biggest landslide ever and completed the greatest single season of any quarterback in college football history.
LSU and it’s fans have exercised many demons this season and I’m still processing all theses great moments. LSU could win several more championships, but I seriously doubt I’ll ever see anything like this season again.
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Apparently, Tim Tebow is Meyer’s ideal quarterback.
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Others might say, for non-football acumen reasons, not even Tebow would have had a chance to start there since the days of Troy Smith.
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Congratulations. Seasons like this make it all worth it.
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Alan,
I’m glad LSU easily beat Clemson to finish the dream season. As you say, nobody is likely to see a similar season ever. It’s a shame OBJ chose to bring negative attention to the team immediately afterwards by giving them cash. Will LSU be the favorite in the West next year, or do you lose too much talent? It could be interesting with Kiffin and Leach joining the coaching ranks.
As for Burrow, it’s not like OSU chose a slouch over him in what was a very close QB competition. Haskins destroyed almost every single game or single season passing record at OSU while winning B10 player of the year and finishing 3rd in the Heisman race while going 13-1 with a mediocre defense. Imagine what a second season as a starter might have been like for him.
70% for 4831 yds, 50 TDs, 8 INTs, rating = 174.1
Records:
4831 yds passing in season (B10 record) – was 3330 @ OSU
373 completions in a season (B10 record) – was 240 @ OSU
50 TD passes in a season (B10 record) – was 35 @ OSU
173.9 passing efficiency in a career (B10 record) – was 157.1 @ OSU (min. 300 completions)
4939 total yds in a season (B10 record) – was 3851 @ OSU
54 TDs responsible for (B01 record) – was 47 @ OSU
499 yds passing in a game – was 458
533 attempts in a season – was 384
73 attempts in a game – was 52
49 completions in a game – was 33
70% completion rate in a career (also played some the previous season) – was 63.5%
70% completion rate in a season – was 65.3%
85% completion rate in a game (min of 20 attempts) – was 83.3%
6 TD passes in a game – tied previous mark
345.1 passing yds per game in a season – was 277.5
245.3 passing yds per game in a career – was 188.7
14 consecutive games with 200+ yds passing – was 10
14 games with 200+ yds passing in a season – was 11
9 games with 300+ yds passing in a career – was 8
9 games with 300+ yds passing in a season – was 7
5 games of 400+ yds passing in a career – was 1
5 games of 400+ yds passing in a season – was 1
174.1 passing efficiency in a season – was 169.8 (min. 100 completions)
506 total yds in a game – was 423
352.8 total yds per game in a season – was 314.3
254.1 total yds per game in a career – was 253.9
14 games with 200+ yds in a season – was 11
9 games with 300+ yds in a season – was 7
5 games of 400+ yds in a career – was 1
5 games of 400+ yds in a season – was 1
He’s not on any of the interception record lists, either.
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Brian – I certainly didn’t mean to disparage Haskins in any way, but meant to describe Burrow’s incredible journey.
Since leaving New York, OBJ appears to miss the limelight and was a real jerk to take attention away from the actual players. LSU will clean this up and I doubt OBJ will get another sideline pass anytime soon.
I’m sure Alabama will be the SEC favorite again next year. So far this afternoon, LSU has lost a half dozen juniors to the NFL draft.
Mississippi is the least populated state with 2 P-5 schools but now has two of the biggest personalities in college football. I’m not a reality TV fan, but HBO or some other channel has to get camera crews down to Oxford and Starkville. The Egg Bowl is a very underrated rivalry since these teams are not elite, but it’s unsurpassed in actual hate amongst the fan bases. It’s not the healthy respect of some, or the hate one day a year, the Bulldogs and the Rebel/Black Bears/Land Sharks REALLY HATE each other every single day. The pirate lawyer and Lane train – with these fan bases – are going to be TV gold. Neither will win the SEC West, but both have a chance to win SEC media days.
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Alan,
I know you weren’t disparaging Haskins. I just wanted to point out that unlike schools that might regret not hiring Orgeron (USC, maybe others), OSU and Meyer can’t really regret selecting Haskins over Burrow as the starter. It just shows how blessed that QB room was with talent – JT Barrett started for about 12 years and set lots of OSU and B10 records and then they had to choose between Haskins and Burrow. And Fields was a solid replacement for the second season we didn’t get from Haskins. But as usual, things just never quite all came together for OSU to win the title. Imagine OSU with Haskins this year, or Burrow still there, or non-blind refs in the Fiesta Bowl.
At least OBJ waited until after the game to pay the players so there weren’t any eligibility issues for the game.
With all the personalities coaching in the SEC West now, the world may never hear a word about Arkansas football again.
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Great season for LSU. Congrats. Burrow was incredible, and impossible to replace.
As to OBJ, I have to disagree with you a bit. He has been a jerk since day 1 in the NFL.
He missed the limelight even when he was in NY in the middle of it. Sadly he is an extraordinary talent who is ultimately ruining what could have been an all time career. The Giants gave Beckham away for next to nothing, but Cleveland may still have given up too much.
OBJ knew exactly what he was doing with his act. Whether the money was real or not, the jerk tried to take this wonderful LSU story and put himself into the middle of it. Sad. He does not have enough fame without this.
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Best of all, he’s coming back.
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Bernie,
https://www.nj.com/rutgersbasketball/2020/01/rutgers-ranked-in-ap-top-25-for-1st-time-in-41-years-where-did-scarlet-knights-land-in-poll.html
I can’t believe you haven’t posted something about RU’s MBB team getting ranked in the AP poll for the first time in 41 years. They are third in the B10 right now, too.
This is the first time a revenue sport at RU has performed well in the B10 and that’s important. If they could just go 6-6 in football for a few years people might stop complaining so much about them joining the B10.
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I would have posted except that this board is dead. Rutgers mens soccer has been pretty good too. Wrestling was in the top 10 in the country, but 5th in the B1G.
In addition to the basketball uptick, Schiano has already made a big difference in recruiting, even though he was hired only 2 weeks before early signing. They still do not have a quarterback.
An odd comment about RU basketball is that the team captain and best player who had two years of eligibility shockingly transferred to Oregon, where he is losing a year of eligibility and is sitting out this year. With him, they could be a legit top 10 team this year. I wonder how he feels watching the scoreboard.
It is truly extraordinary how awful the Rutgers coaches have been. After Chris Ash was fired, it came out from the high school football coaches at all of the top football schools said that they never heard from Ash. So RU never recruited most of the best football players from NJ. Ash seemed to believe that he was still at Ohio State and players would solicit him.
The other idiocy that Ash did when he came in was to pretty much fire all of his assistants with NJ connections and bring in his own people. So Rutgers football had no one with NJ high school connections. There is a reason why Ash was viewed as the worst head coach in D1 football.
At that point, I thought that the AD, Patrick Hobbs, should be fired as well as Ash. How did Hobbs not know that his head football coach never spoke to the top high school coaches?
In addition, in the years that Ash was coach, they really did not improve the players. RU would recruit two stars or low to medium three stars and very few would improve. Tough to play against teams with lots of four stars or high threes.
In the Schiano era, he had any number of players who improved and made it to the NFL. Ray Rice was a three star and had one other offer – Syracuse. The McCourtney brothers were lightly recruited two star players. They went on to be All Pro in the NFL. There were a number of other lightly recruited players, including walk ons, that made it to play, or even become stars, on Sundays. Hopefully he can do that again – only starting with high three stars and fours.
On the basketball front, former hero Rutgers bball hero Eddie Jordan came from the NBA to Rutgers. Jordan then seemed to forget that part of his job as a college coach was to recruit. So he did not. Again, this only become public after Jordan was fired.
Fortunately Pikiell has come in and started to turn things around very quickly.
Bottom line – for years Rutgers had head football and mens bball coaches who did not believe in recruiting.
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For those of you that subscribe to The Athletic, Andy Staples and Bruce Feldman put together a great article about the SEC & B1G pulling away from the rest of the P-5, with great “Frank-the-Tank”-like analysis. What the network money means is so much more than big coaching salaries.
Frank – I understand that life gets in the way of feeding your devoted followers, but there are a lot of great CFB/college issues like NIL, Boise suing the MWC, the gymnastics sexual harassment proposed settlement, the Aunt Becky trial, and – most of all – the all-time greatness of my LSU Tigers.
If you could just start a new discussion thread, I’m sure there would be activity. I value the insight of many of your followers and enjoy the discussion.
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Alan, can you please provide a short synopsis? I saw the headline saying that the SEC will have a big advantage against all conferences, other than the B1G. What are they projecting SEC and B1G revenues to be compared to the other conferences?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/sec/2020/01/30/sec-generated-721-million-revenue-still-trails-big-ten/2856234001/
Here’s a free article that gives the financial numbers.
SEC 2018-2019: $721M ($45.3/school average)
B10 2017-2018: $759M ($54.0/school for full share members)
The B10 doesn’t release its numbers until spring. Reports say at least $55M per full share school for 2018-2019.
Other average payouts per school in 2017-2018:
B12: $34.7M + 3rd tier rights
ACC: $29.5M
P12: $29.5M
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Thanks. I wondered if the article tried to project a few years into the future, when contracts expire. I would assume that the ACC will go up as their network kicks in. Schools like Clemson and Florida State will certainly be at a huge financial disadvantage to their SEC football competitors. (I am assuming that FSU will be back and that no one else in the ACC will be a football power within the next 5 or ten years).
As to the P12, they do not seem to have an answer. The gap between the P12 and the SEC/B1G is likely to continue to grow, unless the P12 finally manages to capitalize on their 100% ownership of their network (which I do not expect).
As to the B12, a couple of schools have real 3rd tier rights. Most will just be along for the ride.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28635019/mark-dantonio-steps-coach-michigan-state
Big news from East Lansing as Mark Dantonio is stepping down to spend more time with his family. Whatever the reason, this will be a huge hire for MSU. Harbaugh could easily re-establish UM as the big brother if MSU gets this hire wrong. Sources are saying Luke Fickell (former OSU player now coaching Cincinnati) is the top choice.
I should note that Dantonio got a $4.3M retention bonus in mid-January and most recruits have already signed with their schools.
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Dantonio was certainly good at getting medium ranked players and making them into a team.
This is that odd situation where players should be allowed to decommit and change schools without penalty. That would be a disaster for the school losing the coach, but a lot of signed players could be really unhappy about this.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28680237/lsu-florida-state-kick-2022-2023-seasons
LSU and FSU just announced a deal to play Labor Day weekend in 2022 and 2023 at close to home supposedly neutral sites (New Orleans and Orlando).
Alan and friends should be excited since they haven’t played since 1991, though LSU typically schedules 1 tough OOC game so this isn’t unusual for them.
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Brian – LSU and Florida State have a storied, albeit lopsided, history. In 1979, long time LSU Coach Charlie McClendon had announced his retirement at the end of the season. Bobby Bowden was the coach at Florida State. They were up and comers but the Seminoles didn’t have the stature of LSU at the time. During the season, Bowden was quietly offered the LSU job upon McClendon’s retirement. LSU and Florida Stare were scheduled to play later that season in Tiger Stadium, and Bowden decided that if LSU beat his Seminoles, he’d accept the Tigers’ position. LSU lost a heart breaker to FSU…
Regarding the current scheduling arrangement, I’d prefer a true home and home, but it’s a very lucrative deal – LSU will receive $5.1mm for each game, and I love watching my Tigers in the Superdome. Camping World Stadium in Orlando, not so much.
LSU does have home and homes scheduled through 2030 with UCLA, Oklahoma, Clemson & Arizona State.
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https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/28736533/michigan-investigating-sexual-abuse-allegations-late-doctor
What the hell is it with B10 sports doctors?
Nassar at MSU, Strauss at OSU and now Anderson at UM. Plus we had Sandusky at PSU. Why is no other conference having these issues come to light?
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Hopefully nobody out there in Frank’s audience has been suffering from COVID-19, but I think the impacts on regular life are spreading rapidly and will soon become a major pain.
OSU just cancelled in-person classes, seminars and events for the rest of March and likely will expand that to the end of the semester (early May). This the day after OH announced the first 3 cases of COVID-19. Sporting events are starting to be cancelled or are blocking fans from attending.
What will March Madness become? OSU is one of 20+ schools to bar in-person events so far. Will there be enough venues to hold the tourney? Will the games be played in empty arenas just so the telecast can go on? The Final Four is scheduled for Atlanta. Will anyone fly into the world’s busiest airport to attend?
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Looks as though there may be games in empty stadiums. A decision on the Tokyo Olympics may have to come soon. Very tough call. In theory, Tokyo can hold the Olympics and Paralympics any time during 2020. There are thousands of athletes around the world working toward a goal which my disappear. Our son competed in Rio 2016 in the Paralympics. He knows (as do I) people who just missed qualifying for TeamUSA in 2016 and have spent the last four years of their lives training for 2020. Very sad.
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Yes, the NCAA just banned fans. It will be weird to watch teams play in large but empty arenas. The final four played in an empty football stadium should be particularly strange.
Tokyo can delay things to a point, but there are weather concerns. They also usually try to minimize interference with other local events. Currently the summer olympics are scheduled to avoid any overlap with the school year (Japan only takes 1 month off). Do they risk the delay? Will all the workers and volunteers be available at other times?
I think they either have the games with no crowds or delay them a year. And yes, the olympics are cruel in terms of just missing the US team and having to wait 4 more years for another chance.
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The TeamUSA Paralympic qualifiers for Rio 2016 were in Charlotte for athletics (track and field), swimming and bicycling. This one guy just missed qualifying. The US Olympic training center for throwers (shot, discuss, etc.) is in Chula Vista, CA, and this guy moved to the training center and has spent 4 years practicing. He is doing very well and I believe that he received a medal in the World Championships in Dohar last year. He was definitely going to make it to Tokyo and now this.
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Just like the 1980 boycott punished a lot of people. This would at least have a better justification.
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And the P5 conferences all fell in line and are barring fans as of Thursday.
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Even better, they are all cancelling the rest of the conference tournaments. I assume the #1 seeds get the autobids to the NCAA tourney (if that still happens). Does this count as a conference tourney title for WI?
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Of course Wiscy is the B1G champ. And Florida State is officially a basketball school, being the regular season champ of the ACC. And on a ridiculous note, Rutgers has not made the NCAA tourney in 29 years and was pretty much a total lock this year. So, the tournament may be cancelled. Oh well. I actually think that there is a chance for the NCAA to go forward with no fans, so long as no players anywhere test positive.
Too much TV money to be lost. A lot of small conferences really need that TV money.
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Well, it is officially cancelled now (along with all other NCAA championships). I suppose “better safe than sorry” applies here. It does suck for RU, but Pikiell will get them in there if he sticks around.
I know WI is B10 champs (so are MSU and UMD), I just wonder if anyone is considered the tournament champ since they did start it. If nothing else, IN and MN can brag about being undefeated in the B10 tournament this year and winning more games than anyone else did.
…
I know OSU just extended spring break an extra week so faculty can prepare to do online instruction the rest of the semester. All the students have to go home (wherever that is) and take their classes from there. I worry about rural students having sufficient internet access.
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All telephone companies offer DSL everywhere. It is slower than the service provided by cable companies, but it is faster than most (all?) satellite services, and much cheaper. It is adequate to stream Netflix and Amazon Prime, so it will suffice for educational services.
However, I doubt that any university or college has adequate internet bandwidth or server capacity to actually provide distant learning to all its students.
My daughter works for The American Chemical Society in their publications operation. All the copy editors have been sent home and told to work on line. The grim reality is that ACS lacks the infrastructure to do this, and she is regularly kicked off line by the ACS server.
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Assuming they have DSL or better (and I doubt they all do), they also need a good enough device that is available when they need it (a separate issue, and not unique to rural areas). And if they are STEM majors, they might need a fairly powerful device to do their work.
Many instructors are using asynchronous lectures which helps ease the server burden at the school. Also Zoom claims to have enough bandwidth to handle the traffic for all the live video.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2020/03/112935/ohio-state-will-pay-195-million-to-connecticut-19-million-to-ball-state-for-non-conference-games-at-ohio-stadium-in
The cost of G5 OOC games continues to spiral out of control. The going rate OSU is paying is $1.8M for games in 2020 – 2023, but it’s $1.9M+ for 2025-2026.
Hopefully everyone out there is still healthy, just a little stir crazy from self-isolation.
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In 2025 that payment may represent most of the income received by UConn football, which may well be an independent.
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Just a quick check in. Hopefully everyone’s still safe and healthy out there, family included.
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All good here. Hope you are too.
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Like with every other natural and man-made disaster this century, Louisiana is leading the way. On top of some of the highest per capita Coronavirus deaths in the world, we get tornadoes on Easter!
On the bright side and through the magic of TV rebroadcasts, my LSU Tigers keep crushing Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Clemson on a nightly basis. I’ve lost count of the number of CFP championships my Tigers have won since the beginning of the pandemic.
Frank – I hope you’re writing a great new blog on how coronavirus will affect next season. Also, The Athletic’s Andy Staples recently suggested that the Big XII May be in a better situation to raid the PAC -12.
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Nice of you to check in, Brian. Alan, congrats on LSU repeating, and repeating and repeating. On an unrelated Rutgers note, several of the way too early men’s bball ranking for next year have Rutgers in the top 25, at least one has them picked around 15th. Quite a change from a pre season ranking of 108 or so. Anyway, stay healthy everyone.
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Well, I know Alan can’t post and is in a hot spot. Some of the rest of us left around here probably live in hot spots too.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29037022/five-fbs-conferences-including-aac-c-usa-ask-ncaa-relax-division-requirements
Five FBS conference commissioners have asked the NCAA to relax requirements to compete in Division I for four years, including the minimum number of sports a school must sponsor.
The letter from the commissioners of the American Athletic Conference, Mountain West, Mid-American Conference, Sun Belt and Conference USA to NCAA president Mark Emmert also asked for temporary relief from requirements regarding financial aid, average football attendance and scheduling. The request was made on behalf of all Division I schools.
The G5 conferences are asking the NCAA to relax DI membership rules for 4 years. I know COVID-19 will be a financial blow, but this seems like an over-reaction. They shouldn’t be allowed to cut sports or not have all 85 football scholarships. Things are harder for the kids than they are for the schools. I’d rather see the NCAA/P5 loan them money.
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Several P5 schools, including Minnesota and Wisconsin, are projecting losses well in excess of one hundred million as a result of the corona virus. Others are near that amount or may exceed it. Kind of doubt that they will be in the mood to make loans. Minnesota has projected possible losses of more than $300,000,000. Wisc is projecting about $170,000,000 in losses.
On a much more positive note RUCDR Infinite Biologics, a unit of Rutgers has gotten FDA approval for COVID testing by putting saliva in a tube. A very big deal. I do not know if they will get royalties, but this is certainly worth quite a bit of prestige.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/04/a-new-rutgers-coronavirus-test-based-on-a-simple-spit-into-a-tube-will-come-to-a-nj-testing-site-this-week.html
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We all know that the accountants can make the numbers say whatever they want. Those projected losses probably assume no football and maybe no MBB (no ticket revenue, no donations, no TV money), but magically still assume all the expenses remain. Color me skeptical.
There is also speculation about possibly expanding the playoff to increase the money for schools (if not now, it seems more likely when the deal ends). But letting schools have 4 years of reduced scholarships and fewer teams is bad for student-athletes and their families (nobody cares about the attendance requirement or the scheduling rules – at least 6 home games). Let the schools shift down (temporarily) to I-AA if that’s what they are willing to support. And by loans, I’m thinking the P5 conferences could find a way to loan money to the G5 now and get it back later via the CFP and/or hoops tourney or even selling bonds. If live attendance is down in the future, T Vmoney should go up.
COVID-19 is only exacerbating a problem that has long existed – the G5 schools are spending well beyond their means in a vain attempt to keep up with the P5. What they need to do is become fiscally responsible in the long term. UC is cutting men’s soccer to save money, but their football coach is getting $2.3M. Maybe defer some of his salary (I’m sure that officially the booster club pays most of it, so have them switch it over) and keep the team which has 29 players and several coaches and costs less than $1M.
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I am not sure how Minnesota is calculating prospective losses. Certainly their number is very high. I have seen analyses including savings and those projections shows schools are still facing losses in the high tens of millions. Somehow I do not see P5 schools legitimately losing $50 million plus worrying about their G5 neighbors.
That aside do you really expect the UC football coach to unilaterally take a deferral to help soccer? Perhaps if every UC coach, administrator, etc., took a small deferral or cut to save the sport, it would happen. How likely is that? I would not want to bet on that.
Schools have different motivations for dropping sports. About 15 years ago, as a direct response to
Title IX financial pressures, Rutgers dropped five men’s sports, including fencing, tennis and crew. They also dropped women’s fencing. The crew alumni organization agreed to pay to keep crew going and the school refused, even though it theoretically would have totally funded by contributions. Is that in the background at UC?
What is the solution for the G5 schools? UC is certainly one of those that got badly screwed. They belong in the P5 as much as anyone else, but do not have a home. Ignoring academics for a moment, Ohio State does not need another Ohio school in the B1G. The ACC went down the road and took Louisville. The Big 12 went down the street and took West Virginia. The SEC sure does not need them.
Cincinnati is a nice market, but just not enough to get the attention of anyone. Other schools are in similar positions. UCF, USF, and a few others. It stinks for them, but what is the answer? Maybe the two Florida schools can pair up and find a home while offering the Tampa – Orlando corridor. Their only likely home is the Big 12, since both the ACC and SEC are in Florida and do not need those two.
After UConn missed out on the ACC, they have effectively dropped football, by rejoining the Big East in basketball. The football team will be an independent. Good luck with that. If UConn plays a G5 schedule with a few P5 pay days, they realistically cannot expect to win more than 3 or 4 games in good years. The stands will be empty. Of course, between the Big East money and a few football pay days, maybe their athletic department can hope to approach $15 to $20 million per year. How long with the State of Connecticut pour tens of millions into the athletic department at UConn? They are committed to “big time” football, but for how long?
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MN’s annual athletic budget is around $125M according to USA Today’s database ($150M for WI). They must be lumping in other potential losses (fewer students, less research $) and assuming the worst for sports.
I don’t expect the P5 to do it out of the goodness of their hearts. It would be about maintaining opponents for future teams to play and buy games to keep the football records inflated. They could use creative financing (bonds?) to make it happen.
I just used the FB coach as an example. There are many better ways to save money than to cut a sport. I would expect many administrators and staff will face pay cuts, especially at state schools. Coaches should suffer too. Why put the burden on the students, the group least likely to be able to handle the extra burden?
UC didn’t get screwed. The sports world doesn’t owe them a P5 spot. They have a tiny stadium, a smallish fan base, decent academics and are tremendously overshadowed by OSU. They could easily be in the MAC like so many schools in OH are. They are chasing a dream that is highly unrealistic. When the financial picture gets this bad, you stop chasing pipe dreams. Rather than trying to keep up with OSU, they should accept what they are and cut their expenses to a rational level. If that means schools dropping to I-AA, then do it. That makes more sense than expecting I-A to lower the bar just so they can stay in and keep digging their financial hole deeper.
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https://apnews.com/a059f16cba96ce115152b577a97e3ea6
The NCAA NIL rules sound like they will be pretty good for athletes.
If adopted, the rules would allow athletes to make sponsorship and endorsement deals with all kinds of companies and third parties, from car dealerships to concert promoters to pizza shops, according to a person who has reviewed the recommendations.
…
No school-branded apparel or material could be used by athletes in their personal endorsement deals, according to the recommendations reviewed by the person who spoke to the AP. Athletes would be required to disclose financial terms of contracts to their athletic departments, along with their relationships with any individuals involved.
Athletes would be allowed to enter into agreements with individuals deemed to be school boosters, the person said.
The NCAA would create a mechanism to evaluate potential deals for fair market value and spot possible corruption. An athlete could compromise their eligibility for failing to disclose details of a financial agreement or relationship, the person said.
The recommendations also call for allowing athletes to sign autographs for money, sell their memorabilia, and be paid for personal appearances and working as an instructor in their sport.
The key will be the “fair market value” mechanism.
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It will be good for a handful of athletes. How that translates to the vast majority is a different matter entirely. Will the the second team all SEC, but not All American tackle, be happy when the QB is getting a couple of hundred thousand per year and he gets zero.
Burrows and Tua were certainly worth that much or more this year. Trevor Lawrence already has one national title under his belt. What is his FMV to Clemson? How much extra money does he bring in to the Tigers (assuming that there is a season).
The idea of FMV to spot corruption is nuts. When the big car dealer in Tuscaloosa hires the star QB for $100,000 and has ten customers swear that they only bought their cars there due to the kid being a spokesman. Get two or three other sponsors and there is serious money to start the bidding war for the uncoming high school junior. There will be no need to hide anything. In fact, the players would want to make it all public to try for better offers.
What if Nike decides that it is time for Oregon to win a couple of March Madness titles. Get two or three of the top five high school bball players each year and pay them a couple of hundred thousand each, per year. Then make a line of sneakers showcasing the player names and photos. Who is to say that Nike has not paid FMV? If they really won a title or two, Nike might even sell enough sneakers to make money on the deal. They could put out a new line of sneakers every year.
Silicon Valley could have a good time hiring the best football and basketball players for Stanford. Lots of other schools might have similar backing. Most will not. Of course, I believe that Stanford said that they would drop big times sports if athletes are paid. Does that include this?
Ohio State will probably be fine. Which other B1G schools will have the money from sponsors to compete? How many will not? Will Auburn have the boosters to compete with Bama? Etc.
This ignores the complaints of the female athletes under Title IX. Sure they can sell their own likenesses, but for nowhere near the money. Will that be legal?
Look at the USA Women’s Soccer team. They are much better than the men’s and want equal pay. Unfortunately they only earn a small percentage of what the men make, but they do not have a Title IX.
I just think that the lid is coming off Pandora’s Box and once it is open, it can not be closed again.
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I’m not a fan of the concept, but the NCAA’s hand was forced by the states. I was just surprised that rather than trying to get away with the bare minimum, the NCAA seems to be getting ahead of everyone else. That box lid has been opening for a long time and it will only open more. At least the NCAA can avoid some lawsuits this way.
Will this cause some dissension among teammates? Sure. But the current system causes a lot of issues too. The wise QB will share some of his earnings with the OL, just like in the NFL. Maybe they’ll bankrupt the donors in a few years and then people will start paying rationally.
The devil is in the details, and that FMV system is all details. Perhaps they’ll use other people (not current players) as market setters. They require similar pay for similar work as regular people in that industry get for summer jobs, so the concept isn’t totally new to them.
As for women, there is no ground for a lawsuit. The schools have no control over who pays for NIL rights, so they are fine.
The women’s soccer team is relatively better, in part because there is almost no competition. Very few countries have any sort of women’s development program while the US has Title IX and colleges looking to balance football. The men’s team is objectively better than the women’s team but they are at a disadvantage being from the one major country that doesn’t really care about soccer. The best athletes in the rest of the world play soccer while it’s a much lower tier in the US. It’s like comparing UConn’s WBB team to any average MBB team in the B10.
Sure the women want equal pay. Who wouldn’t? But is being the biggest fish in a small pond as valuable as being a medium fish in the ocean? FIFA’s world cup revenues say no. It’s not even close. What strikes me as odd about the whole thing is how differently the teams are structured and run. They have different unions and very different contract structures. If they want equal pay, then they should get the same contract. And the US should want to find 1 contract structure that works for both teams.
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The Team USA Women’s Soccer team lost to a team of 15 year old boys from Texas. That is not the USA under 16 team, that was strictly an elite team from Texas. No there is no way in the world that the level of play for the women would be anywhere near that of even an average men’s college team. Not even close.
As to Title IX, I agree with you until some Federal judge sitting somewhere disagrees. Title IX has expanded well beyond the intended legislation, so who knows. In between his first and second years at NYU Law School (nearly 20 years ago), our son worked for the Department of Justice, most specifically for the female lawyer there who originally drafted Title IX. Even 20 years ago the lawyer who drafted the law no longer recognized where it had gone. It has moved further since then.
Based on the Ohio State prof research, FMV for a top player would be through the roof.
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If his numbers are correct, which I doubt, that is FMV to OSU’s football program over a year. Their endorsement value would be much less for a single commercial. And FMV for actual jobs will be constrained by what non-athletes make.
Unrelated (but applies to paying players):
OSU spends $60M on football, or $600,000 per player. That’s much more than a 5-star player’s FMV to OSU.
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https://news.osu.edu/study-estimates-revenue-produced-by-top-college-football-players/
Some relevant research from an OSU professor.
The most elite players in college football increase revenue for their school football programs by an average of $650,000 a year, a first-of-its-kind study suggests.
This is the money brought in by the highest-rated recruits coming out of high school – those given five stars by Rivals, a recruiting news service, according to researchers at The Ohio State University.
Four-star recruits generated about $350,000 a year and three-star recruits increased revenue by about $150,000, while two-star recruits actually reduced revenue by about $13,000 a year for college football programs, the study found.
…
For some analyses, the researchers controlled for the fact that football powerhouses like Alabama or Ohio State tend to attract more of the highest-rated players than other schools.
That means that the revenue value of any individual elite player at a top school wouldn’t be as high as it would be at other schools.
But the value would still be high, Logan said. When the school effects were taken into account, each five-star recruit still increased revenue by nearly $200,000 a year, while four-star recruits were responsible for nearly $90,000 a year.
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NFL draft recap through 3 rounds
Round #1
SEC – 15; LSU’s five first round picks ties a NFL record
B1G – 5
Big 12 – 5
PAC 12 – 3
ACC – 3
G5 – 1
Round #2
SEC – 10
B1G – 7
PAC 12 – 3
ACC – 3
Big 12 – 3
I-A Ind – 2 (ND)
G5 – 2
I-AA – 1
D-II – 1
Round #3
SEC – 15
G5 – 8
PAC 12 – 6
B1G – 5
Big 12 – 4
ACC – 2
I-A Ind – 1 (ND)
I-AA – 1
Through 3 rounds, LSU leads the way with 10 pics and is on track to break the record of 14 in a seven round draft.
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Alan,
They didn’t break the record (tied 2004 OSU with 14), but still a great draft for LSU. And OSU tied for second-most with 10 (tied with MI).
On a related note:
Many of us know fans of schools like WI, IA and MSU that talk about developing players and how much better they are at it than the top schools who get all the elite recruits.
https://sports.yahoo.com/which-college-football-programs-develop-the-most-3-star-recruits-into-top-nfl-draft-picks-125011523.html
Using the recruiting rankings from Rivals.com for reference, 21 of the 32 players chosen in Thursday night’s first round were rated as at least four-star recruits. Of those 21, seven were five-star recruits. When you consider that there are typically somewhere in the range of 30-35 five-star prospects, 300 or so four-star prospects, and hundreds of other recruits with two- and three-star ratings in a given recruiting class, that’s a pretty good hit rate.
Those high-ranking draftees typically represent the top performing programs in college football. This year, LSU, Alabama and Ohio State combined for 12 of the 32 first-rounders. But not every school can recruit at that level and are forced to search for diamonds in the rough to help them win games and develop into draft prospects.
That got us wondering which programs develop the most low-level recruits — unranked, two-star and three-star prospects — into players picked in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. So we went through each FBS school’s draft picks from the past 10 years (2020 draft included) and looked up those draftees’ Rivals recruiting rankings.
Here’s what we found:
* The 10 programs that developed the most three-star (or lower) recruits into Round 1-3 picks in the last 10 years are Ohio State (14), Wisconsin (13), Boise State (12), LSU (12), Stanford (12), Louisville (11), Washington (11), Mississippi State (10), TCU (10) and Utah (10).
…
* OSU has had 43 players go in the top three rounds of the draft over the last 10 years, and 14 of them were rated at three stars or below — more than any other program. Six of those players went in the first round.
* LSU isn’t far behind. Of the 45 Tigers picked in the top three rounds since 2011, 12 were ranked at three stars or below. That figure includes three 2020 first-rounders: Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson and Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
* By comparison, Alabama has had 54 players drafted in those rounds, with just six rated at three stars or below. Notre Dame (3/24), USC (2/23), Georgia (3/22) and Oklahoma (4/21) all had a similarly low percentage. That, of course, is also a reflection of how well those programs recruit.
So OSU and LSU are doing great at both, and AL sucks.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/soccer/2020/05/01/uswnt-claim-equal-pay-thrown-out-federal-judge/3070852001/
Speaking of women’s soccer, a federal judge just threw out their claim of unequal pay in their lawsuit against the USSF.
… and reverted back to an earlier argument that the women had chosen their pay structure and, thus, had been fairly compensated.
It was that argument that Klausner sided with Friday.
…
The U.S. women and U.S. men have separate collective bargaining agreements. In the lawsuit, the U.S. women said their bonuses for friendlies, World Cup games and other tournaments were lower than those paid to the men. They also alleged that, as two-time reigning World Cup champions, they stood to have made far more money if they were paid under the men’s structure.
But Klausner rejected both premises. From 2015-19, the time covered in the lawsuit, the women made an average of $220,747 per game, he said, while the men made an average of $212,639. Klausner did not address the fact that the women won more games over this period, which would translate into higher bonuses.
While the women certainly would have made more money under the men’s bonus structure — the U.S. men would have made more than $1.1 million for winning the 2018 World Cup, according to The Guardian’s Caitlin Murray, while the women made less than $300,000 — Klausner ruled that was the players’ choice.
Unlike the U.S. men, who are only paid for games they play, the women get a base salary.
“Plaintiffs cannot now retroactively deem their CBA worse than the MNT CBA by reference to what they would have made had they been paid under the MNT’s pay-to-play structure when they themselves rejected such a structure,” Klausner wrote. “This method of comparison not only fails to account for the choices made during collective bargaining, it also ignores the economic value of the `insurance’ the WNT players receive under their CBA.”
“Merely comparing what WNT players received under their own CBA with what they would have received under the MNT CBA discounts the value that the team placed on the guaranteed benefits they receive under their agreement,” Klausner added, “which they opted for at the expense of higher performance-based bonuses.”
Other pieces of the suit will go forward (about charter planes and staffing). Perhaps this decision can get both sides back to the negotiating table. If the women don’t like their current CBA, perhaps they should aim for one more like the men’s this time (fewer guarantees but more bonuses).
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If the sponsors were outraged by the idea that men played better soccer and should be paid more, there is a simple solution. Let those sponsors kick in extra money for the women. Let them pay big money for the rights to televise all of the women’s games only. That would solve it.
Of course, the sponsors will not accept that simple solution, since it would not be a good return on their advertising dollars.
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USA Today and presumably many others are pushing for the women’s soccer team to get more money. It appears that the men’s soccer team also supports the women.
OK, just one question. What is the source of any such additional funding? Will the men agree to take a pay cut and give it to the women? Will the sponsors agree to a significant increase in their funding? If not, there is no other source of money.
The US government gives minimal support to world class US athletes. If the athletes do not have sponsors, they are pretty much on their own. Our son competed in Rio Paralympics, finished fourth and missed a medal by four inches. He, of course, does not have a sponsor. As the US record holder in a Paralympic event, he received $1,000 per month from TeamUSA and an extra $500 toward paying a coach.
Certainly revenue sports such as soccer will not be getting more money from Team USA. The US Soccer Federation has no source of extra money other than sponsors. I do not know that anyone has worried about this detail.
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The good news is that there is one potential source of more money, FIFA. FIFA has been under pressure to pay more for the WWC and they have been increasing their payout lately. So that would be one realistic source of money.
Beyond that, I’ve heard talk of pooling a percentage of USWNT and USMNT revenue and splitting it equally. The men may feel pressured to agree. I think the TV deal is already combined.
USSF would probably like to have 1 CBA for both teams, but I don’t see how they can agree. The USSF agreed to the large bonus structure for the men because of how FIFA pays and the likelihood that the USMNT would advance to certain stages. USSF knows the women would advance farther, so they’d have to reduce the bonuses.
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There is a real possibility that Rutgers, being near NYC, may not be allowed to play sports this fall. One wonders if Northwestern and Illinois will also be shut down. Michigan and Michigan State? All those states have very aggressive Governors when it comes to the shutdown. So what does a B1G football schedule look like. Is everyone independent for a year?
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And the SEC is considering starting a full season with pretty much all teams on board. Meanwhile what happens in CA or Oregon. The Oregon shut down has now been extended to July, while Colorado is reopening and Utah was barely hit. Arizona may be ready soon. By the way, Maryland is likely to be as locked down. There are also questions about PA. It will be interesting.
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How about this. What impact will the close down have on recruiting if the P5 does not act in sync? The SEC seems that they are likely to have a season, without regard to others. The Big 12 very well might, even if West VA and one or two others are left out for a while. I have read that the ACC might open, without BC, Cuse, or Pitt. It looks as though the PAC and B1G are the least likely to open.
OK. What is a top 5 in the country football player is considering Ohio State, Michigan (not likely, but), Bama, LSU or Clemson. The last three are playing and the two B1G schools are not playing. Where are top players going? How about a recruit picking between USC, Texas and Oklahoma. USC is closed and the others are playing.
This could impact top level competition for several years. This also ignores the fact that the SEC schools will probably collect their huge TV deal, while other conferences might not have anything to broadcast.
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Here is a take on coming chaos in college football. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2020/05/07/college-football-chaos-coronavirus-no-one-leading-leagues-push-play/3088086001/
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https://sportsandsociety.osu.edu/events/ssi-and-trevon-logan-huddle-how-much-5-star-recruit-worth?
If anyone’s interested, the OSU professor who co-authored that study I mentioned in late April about the value of players (5* = $650,000, etc.) is giving a Zoom lecture tomorrow at 4pm to discuss it. You can register at the link above.
Here’s the full study: https://economics.osu.edu/sites/default/files/Revenue%20Per%20Quality%20of%20College%20Football%20Recruit_Logan%20and%20Bergman.pdf
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Thanks
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While everyone is wondering what the Governors, college Presidents, conference leaders and the NCAA will do, the real question might be what will parents do? With COVID still lingering and major cities convulsed by riots, would a parent send his child to an urban university? The Ohio State campus is within walking distance of the Columbus riot area. (I have actually done it, but only once.) Do you want your kid there this fall, if OSU opens (which is unlikely)?
What about Maryland or Northwestern or Minnesota or Michigan State or Miami (FL) or Georgia Tech or USC or Berkeley or U. Washington…? If any of them are allowed to open, would you send your kid there?
Dartmouth looks to be good, if you’ve $50,000 plus lying around.
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Bob,
OSU is expected to decide by mid-June, but the rumors I’m hearing are that all large lectures (>100 students) will be online but smaller classes may meet in person in rooms that provide sufficient room for spacing. Departments will be encouraged to go online or hybrid for as many courses as possible, but students will be on campus in fall.
As for the riots, those are likely to die down well before school starts up again. I was actually out on High Street the night of the OJ verdict and saw part of those riots (my friend got attacked), but people got past it. Minnesota might face a larger challenge but otherwise I don’t think the impact of the riots on attendance will be large. COVID-19 and economic issue seem more likely to have an impact to me.
Bonuses with Dartmouth are that they have a ski slope right there and you can take underground tunnels between buildings in the winter.
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https://www.nj.com/sports/2020/06/njit-leaves-atlantic-sun-conference-joins-america-east.html
Realignment news. NJIT leaves the Atlantic Sun to join America East.
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NJIT became a D1 school in basketball, soccer and a couple of other sports around 15 years ago. For a while they were an independent looking for any conference tie-in that would take them. I guess that this latest move is for travel and geographic reasons, since the new conference has all of its small schools along the east coast from Maryland to Vermont and New Hampshire. Most, if not all, road trips will now be by bus, no doubt. This is probably the perfect place for NJIT sports.
Academically it is a decent engineering school. It is ranked among the top 100 engineering schools in the country, and some programs are ranked much higher than that.
It is a tiny D1 program. They have about 10 D1 sports and the campus is in downtown Newark.
The basketball stadium holds around 3,500.
The soccer complex is nice, but the seating capacity there is comparable to an average or small high school. They probably get their biggest crowds there when they host the Essex County, NJ, soccer championships.
(The county has more than 20 high schools, including St. Benedicts Prep which always competes for the number one boys high soccer team in the US. Benedicts sends their kids to South America to train and regularly recruits players from South America. I believe that Benedicts is no longer qualified for NJ state championships, since they play a national schedule)
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https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29364287/john-swofford-retire-acc-commissioner-2020-21-campaign
The old guard of conference commissioners is just about gone with Swofford retiring next year.
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Under Armour wants to terminate $280 million dollar contract with UCLA. UA has been a major source of funding for Maryland sports. If UA is in trouble, that has to impact UMD sports.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/under-armour-wants-terminate-280-million-apparel-deal-ucla?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=miximedia&utm_campaign=zerohedge
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UA is burning a lot of bridges with this move. They signed a stupid contract (UCLA’s deal is still the biggest in college sports) but every school will be wary of signing with them in the future. Nike mat look to pick off some of UA’s schools after this.
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Agreed. Why would any college trust UA after this and yes, the contract is insane, but they signed it.
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https://www.si.com/college/2020/06/29/ncaa-college-football-conference-realignment
Perhaps the dumbest realignment plan ever, courtesy of Pat Forde.
10 conferences of 12 (11 I-A schools relegated and 1 promoted), geographic conferences, 4-8 P5 members per conference, full round robin schedules + 1 OOC game (which is locked for at least 4 years), no CCGs, 10 conference champs + 2 at-larges make CFP (1st 2 rounds in December). He thinks it would recover or create more rivalries than it kills among other idiocy.
New homes for B10 teams:
Great Mideast: OSU, MI, MSU, IU, PU + UC, Akron, Toledo, Kent St, Ball St, Miami, Ohio
Great Midwest: WI, MN, IA, NE + ISU, KU, KSU, MO, NDSU, EMU, CMU, WMU
Yankee: PSU, UMD, RU + SU, BC, Navy, Army, Pitt, Temple, Buffalo, UConn, Umass
MAC: NW, IL + ND, UK, UT, VU, UL, WV, WKU, MTSU, Marshall, NIU
OOC games:
OSU/PSU
MI/MN
MSU/WI
PU/IA
IU/UK
NW/Stanford
IL/MO
NE/OU
UMD/UVA
RU/Duke
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This is what you get when you have nothing relevant to say.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2020/07/08/stanford-eliminate-11-varsity-sports-wrestling-mens-volleyball/5399607002/
Stanford is dropping 11 varsity sports (out of 36).
Stanford has announced it will eliminate 11 varsity sports at the end of the 2020-21 academic year.
Wrestling, men’s volleyball and women’s field hockey are among the sports to be cut. The list also includes men’s and women’s fencing, lightweight rowing, men’s rowing, co-ed and women’s sailing, squash and synchronized swimming.
…
“Over time, however, providing 36 varsity teams with the level of support that they deserve has become a serious and growing financial challenge. Each of the individuals associated with these programs will forever have a place in Stanford’s history.”
The announcement said all scholarship commitments and coaches’ contracts would be honored, and that all of the affected programs would have the opportunity to compete as club sports.
Stanford has endowed many of their athletic scholarships, so maybe those were mostly in the other sports already? As rich as Stanford is, I think this speaks volumes to the financial woes in the P12. They could have cut expenses, but they won’t keep a non-elite program.
I wonder if their death grip on the Directors Cup will finally end with only 25 sports left.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/ivy/2020/07/08/ivy-league-not-play-football-fall-other-sports/5394960002/
The Ivy League has cancelled all sports during fall semester, becoming the most prominent conference to do so so far. Is this the domino that will lead to other I-AA (and below) schools to cancel fall sports? Will it bleed into the G5 next, or do they need the buy game money so badly that they will risk health and safety to get it? Will this be the cover that other AAU schools use to follow suit? Only the P5 can make a lot of money off of football, and some of them have to be thinking long and hard about it. Will the P12 schools cancel due to the COVID spikes out west? How about the B12 and TX?
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Probably won’t be any non conference games in B1G or P12 for G5 schools to be depending on, at least this year.
Ironic that the second richest school in the nation (world?) cries poverty, the smaller sports are the thing needing jettisoned to save the dept budget.
Only 10 sports (for each sex) count toward directors cup. MVB and synchronized swimming may have a somewhat significant impact.
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The B1G’s footprint includes Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and New Jersey (six schools) all of which are run by Governor’s with hard shutdown policies. Only Indiana and Ohio (three schools) are committed to opening school itself this fall. I can’t think of anyone absolutely committed to fall sports. I think the odds of no fall sports nationwide is pretty good. And the choices will be made by the Governors, not the Conferences.
The bigger question is, Does anyone care?
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Bob,
The Governor’s obviously can say no, but if they don’t then the schools have to decide for themselves. For example, DeWine could allow it in Ohio but OSU could still decide not to play because Franklin county and/or OSU’s campus is still seeing a spike whether or not the rest of Ohio is.
I think lots of people care for varying reasons. Some are worried about the financial implications, others about health/safety. Some are thinking near term only and others are looking long term.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/2020/07/09/big-ten-football-reduces-season-schedule-only-conference-games/5408329002/
And so it begins. The B10 has cancelled all non-conference play for fall sports.
Limiting competitions to conference-only play will give the Big Ten “the greatest flexibility to adjust its own operations throughout the season and make quick decisions in real-time based on the most current evolving medical advice and the fluid nature of the pandemic,” according to the league’s statement.
Based on the same advice, the statement added, the conference is “also prepared not to play in order to ensure the health, safety and wellness of our student-athletes should the circumstances so dictate.”
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How about a in division only season (perhaps with one cross division “rivalry” game). Although it would defeat the strategy of shortening the season, if things stay stable, stager a couple bye weeks for half the games weeks 5 and 6. If still acceptable to play follow with conf semis and final. That would come close to meeting tv contract obligations with 12 weeks of games. Maybe not completely, but better than a season of reruns…
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While I really want to see live football again, I’m really enjoying watching 2019 reruns. My Tigers keep destroying Texas, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Oklahoma & Clemson. It never gets old! Added bonus, the local Cox sports channel has been showing the 2007 season. The Mad Hatter in his prime – 5 for 5 on 4th down against Florida during Tebow’s Heisman season, fake field goals, fake punts, going for TDs when a FG will do.
Reliving great memories is about the only silver lining in this new normal. LSU is beating Alabama 16-7. It’s early in the second quarter on the SECN.
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😁
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2020/07/10/pac-12-joins-big-ten-conference-only-college-football/5414246002/
The P12 quickly follows the B10’s lead, dropping OOC games.
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https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances
USA Today released their 2018-19 financial data for public universities.
Revenue:
1. UT – $224M
2. TAMU – $213M
3. OSU – $211M
4. UM – $198M
5. UGA – $174M
6. PSU
7. AL
8. OU
9. UF
10. LSU
11. WI
14. IA
18. MSU
21. NE
24. MN
25. IU
29. IL
31. PU
33. UMD
39. RU ($103M – up $25M since 2013 and still not getting full share, but almost $30M allocated from fees/academic side)
Expenses:
1. OSU – $221M (OSU says the deficit was actually <$1M)
2. UT – $204M
3. UM – $191M*
4. AL – $185M*
5. TAMU – $169M
6. PSU
7. OU
8. WI*
9. UL*
10. FSU*
* – some money allocated from student fees or from the academic side (~$6M for UL, $15.6M for FSU)
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29559987/acc-sets-fall-football-plans-includes-notre-dame
BREAKING NEWS
Notre Dame’s run of independence is over. They are officially a member of the ACC in football for 2020. They’ll play 10 league games, COVID permitting.
Sure, it’s only a 1 year thing. But they can never again claim to have always been independent. And once you’ve done something once, the second time is easier.
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We will see if this year even goes. With the B1G talking about moving the tOSU/UM game to early in the year makes me think they have serious doubts.
If nothing else this year is showing how fragile the current system is. The P5 is talking about holding their own championships, but can’t coordinate scheduling. ND is seeing first-hand how a conference can mess with our tradition, in this case the Navy game. The ACC dictates we cannot play out of state.
ND has not announced its OOC game, but Arkansas, Wisconsin, Southern Cal, and Stanford all have had their leagues ban OOC games. Our only home game before all this hit the fan was Western Michigan and I don’t see them getting the nod as a first choice. My hope is that the AAC will allow road games and the Navy game can be moved to the Oil Can. ND is listing it’s remaining game as a neutral site on as of right now.
The ACC only put in that stipulation to put the ball in the SEC’s court. With that off the table and the BXII only allowing OOC home games perhaps the ACC might scrap them to and run a 10 game schedule.
I don’t know. I just wish Frank would share his thoughts and I miss you all.
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I agree, this season feels more and more unlikely to be played at all. But ND still broke the precedent by agreeing to this.
How are the alumni reacting? Will it have any impact on future discussions of joining a conference?
Unfortunately Frank hasn’t been here in over 2 years. He’s still on Twitter, though.
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Going off my friends and the people I talk to? Ennui mostly. Most of them doubt the season will finish. All of them seriously doubt they’ll get to go to a game in person figuring the attendance will be limited at best to the big donors and the student body. And there’s been much more talk about the disappointment of losing the game @ Lambeau, the California trip to u$c, and the Ireland trip to start the year. We all have an unspoken understanding this is a one season anomaly and pray to God things go back to normal by summer 2021.
The season we have now is sorely lacking with rivalry games we actually care about, thanks to the 12Pac going conference only. Of course the SEC denying us Arkansas means we will likely be stuck with Western Michigan as our sole OOC game. It seems the ACC wanted the OOC games to get the needed inventory for the ACC Network and its TV partners. I don’t think anymore that moving the Navy game to a neutral site with diminished or nonexistent gate receipts make it worthwhile to Navy, nor does having the game on CBS help the ACC. And after getting a chance at the Orange Bowl I doubt the ACC has the political currency with the other 14 schools to give us a dispensation to honor history.
The ACC slate we’ve been dealt has one interesting game at home against Clemson that was previously scheduled to go along with previously scheduled Duke and U of L. It adds of Syracuse and a down FSU to our home slate. Our trip to California, the Frozen Tundra, Ireland/first on-campus-game ever with Navy, and Mercedez-Benz were replaced by trips to Chapel Hill, Boston, and GTech’s on campus facility. Our trips to Pitt and Wake Forest are still happening.
You tell me how exciting that schedule is. Pitt is the most played “rivalry” of that group, but it isn’t an interesting or sexy one. GTech is the only other team we’re playing this year among our top ten most played opponents and the most well known part of that “rivalry” was Rudy’s sack in garbage time. The rest of these aren’t rivalries in any real sense and only one is actually nationally sexy.
More than anything it really lays bare the problem with joining *any* conference, the loss of scheduling freedom and the sacrifice of interesting novel match-ups and beloved rivalries to be replaced by … schedule filler? If ND joined a 16 team league that *isn’t* the 12Pac (and that would be crazy to join a west coast conference) ND’s OOC would FOREVER be u$c, Stanford, and Navy. Every other rivalry is essentially gone except for a potential once a generation or more bowl game. I have a hard time imaging a world where I get excited to play ACC teams that aren’t Miami or FSU or get mad at teams other than BC. A history with them won’t be made until long after I’m in the ground, and considering we’re due for a major reshuffling in the next ten years or so it probably won’t happen.
No one I’ve spoken to or heard from is excited for the conference race (basically if ND doesn’t go 9-1 the fans will likely not live long enough to hear the end of it) and likely playing a rematch with Clemson in Charlotte isn’t moving the needle, either. I don’t know if I’d even want to display a championship banner if we did win the ACC (unlikely, I know).
God, typing it out like this I’d almost prefer not to even play this season.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/sec/2020/07/30/sec-football-schedule-features-conference-opponents-only-10-games/5424962002/
The SEC screwed over the ACC, deciding to play only conference games this year. FSU/UF, GT/UGA, Clemson/SC and UL/UK are all off.
The ACC schools can still play 1 OOC game in their home state, but the SEC just eliminated the whole reason that exemption was made in the ACC. Now the ACC and B12 will be the only ones with paycheck games to work out the kinks (assuming any game are even played).
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https://bigten.org/news/2020/8/5/big-ten-announces-plans-for-2020-football-season-medical-protocols-for-all-sports.aspx
The B10 has released their new football schedule and plans for all fall sports.
* The plan is for Big Ten institutions to play a 10-game Conference-only schedule including the nine current opponents and one additional cross-division game
* The schedule starts as early as the weekend of Sept. 5 with final games slated for Nov. 21 to align with academic calendars
* The 10 games would be played over at least 12 weeks with each team having two open dates
* The schedule is structured to maximize flexibility:
** Games can be collapsed into bye weeks
** Uniform bye week on Nov. 28
** Cross-division games are currently scheduled for all schools in Week 1 (Sept. 5) and Week 12 (Nov. 21)
** Schedule constructed in a way that allows season to start as early as the weekend of Sept. 5, but also provides the ability to move the start of the season back to Sept. 12, 19 or 26 through strategic sequencing that allows games to be moved to a latter part of the schedule
* Big Ten Football Championship Game remains scheduled for Dec. 5 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, though it could be moved as late as Dec. 19
* Teams can begin preseason practices on Friday, Aug. 7, or earlier if permitted under NCAA guidelines related to first dates of scheduled competition
That’s right, they’ve moved all the rivalry games off the final weekend except for IU vs PU. The final week is full of terrible games (PSU/IL, RU/WI, MI/NW, UMD/MN, OSU/IA, MSU/NE, IU/PU).
Why would you do that?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/bigten/2020/08/10/big-ten-votes-against-college-football-season-due-coivd-concerns/3332196001/
The B10 is supposed to announce tomorrow that there will be no fall football. The P12 is expected to follow suit.
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My suggestion for B1G and P12: one game season. Play the biggest rivalry games staggered over a number of weeks. In many cases it wouldn’t involve leaving a somewhat shared region and limit possible COVID-19 spread to only one exposure. It would provide at least a bit of TV inventory, and would keep consecutive rivalry streaks active.
P.S. it didn’t have to be this way. New Zealand now has over 100 days with zero community spread cases…
Next year is definitely at risk, too, based on our inability to get this under control. Need to stop discussing all the things we wish were happening and do (and keep doing) the things that will make those discussions plans rather than wishes.
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Yesterday was strange, with so many coaches (OSU, MI, PSU, NE) and even ADs coming out in support of playing this fall. It’s funny that they think they are in charge of this decision. The presidents finally proved otherwise.
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If the B10 and P12 both cancel and the other three do not that will have interesting multi-year impact, irrespective of COVID. Why would a five star or sold 4 star player commit to a program that is closed down for a year, when he can go elsewhere and play? Then what if other leagues start and have a one or two game season? Is that a year of eligibility? Can players then transfer to where to another school without penalty or loss of red shirt year? Etc., etc. This can become even stranger than it already is.
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Well, we’ll have to see. The B10 and P12 did their part. The ACC and SEC have said they plan to go forward. The B12 is reportedly also going to play.
I don’t think this will have a huge impact on recruiting because the B12, ACC and SEC can only take so many players. Besides, the B10 and P12 are still open to spring football.
Many players may see this as a free redshirt year to lift and learn the playbook. The real issue will be how the NCAA deals with eligibility. If everyone keeps their year, then the 85 limit has to get raised for a while.
This also means that the liability risks for the the ACC, B12 and SEC will be even bigger since players can point to the B10 and P12 canceling due to COVID.
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I wouldn’t be shocked if the SEC, ACC & Big 12 pull the plug in a few weeks.
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This is the first time since 1871 that there will be no football games on the Rutgers campus.
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Based on recent history, that might not be a bad thing.
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So with NE running their mouths, could we be facing major realignment news? Kevin Warren said categorically that NE can’t play football in fall and remain in the B10, but everyone at NE (gov, pres, AD, coach, players) wants to play and says they’re looking into it.
I’m sure the remaining 13 would be happy to split the money NE was making. Who might be the new #14? Or do we stick at 13? Would KU leave the B12 (straight swap for NE?)? Would the SEC swap MO for NE? Are there any other realistic candidates?
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Not to rain on a good realignment discussion, but Nebraska has made no comment that indicates they want to leave the B1G. None. They have said they want to play this fall and are looking at their options.
Coach Day said the same thing… today. No one is saying that means OSU is running their mouths and want to leave the B1G.
I’m not proud of the way Nebraska has handled this, but the blowback has also been a bit overblown.
Brain, thank you for your many posts on this thread. I appreciate that you continue to post. And, I appreciate the others who have also continued to comment. I have been following these various threads since 2010, and I have always appreciated the high level of discussion here.
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Rick,
I know they haven’t, but they did talk strongly about wanting to find a way to play outside of the B10 if the B10 wasn’t playing. And some of their fans were vocal about being willing to leave if the B10 wasn’t going to play. And frankly, this is about as close to major realignment news as we are likely to get for years (much like ND playing ACC football this year) so I threw it out there with a clickbait-level comment.
The difference between NE and OSU/MI/PSU is that it was mentioned at all levels at NE, from the governor on down. It was the coaches everywhere else, and look how quickly Gene Smith shot down Day’s idea. It may be the difference of experience with the B10 and how it operates. Older members know that once a decision is announced, every school is expected to toe the line 100%.
I think in hindsight a lot of people may regret how they responded to CFB and COVID-19. It’s become so political that people on both sides are not always using their heads. Asking 20 year-olds to risk death or permanent injury above and beyond what football normally presents just because we’re bored sitting at home is not one of our finer moments as a country.
Feel free to add to the discussion any time. There are few of us still around so a fresh voice is welcome.
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I agree that it would be shocking for NE to consider bailing from the B1G. Where would they go? The SEC would not need them, but I guess would take them if someone like Oklahoma went along. Not happening.
Back to the Big12 and walk away from B1G money (and prestige)? Not too likely. I imagine that the academics at Nebraska are very happy being among the top academic schools in the B1G. I do not know if it has helped the academic standing of NE, but they must enjoy hanging with a bunch of top academic schools.
In this crazy season, I would imagine that if one or two schools (NE and IA?) found a way to make a schedule (not likely) the B1G would not stand in the way. As to a schedule, where would they find teams to play?
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Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren has said that Nebraska cannot play football this fall and remain in the B1G. Since NE is not likely to put together a schedule anyone, I expect that this threat will be effective. https://sports.yahoo.com/big-ten-commissioner-kevin-warren-lashes-out-at-nebraska-after-critical-statements-023133028.html
What if my prior comment is wrong and the Big 12 is going forward with a season and invites NE to join them in their schedule? Does anyone think that this could happen? I do not, but it would be an effective withdrawal from the B1G. Anyone think that is even possible?
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In these crazy times, I guess anything is possible. I think ultimately cooler heads will prevale and NE will neither play football or leave the BIG. As someone mentioned who would they play and I would think there are too many legal issues in leaving a conference.
What would be laugh till you cry ironic, if NE did join the Big 12 and in 2 years TX, OK and KAN left to join the BIG.
Given what we know now, I wonder if Delany would have chose Missouri over NE?
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Doug,
It’s an interesting question. If Delany and the presidents knew how mediocre NE football would become (65-50 since joining in 2011: 37-16 for 2011-2014 but only 28-34 since 2015) would they still choose UNL over Mizzou? Mizzou is still in the AAU, went 66-49 since 2011 and is in a much larger state. UNL still is a bigger brand, but it’s cache is falling among fans and while UNL can drive ratings it can’t sell cable subscriptions.
My guess is that they would still chase the brand of UNL football, but it’d be a tougher decision. People thought UNL was recovering from a down period in the mid-00s when they joined the B10, but that ended mid-decade with UNL winning 6, 9, 4, 4, and 5 games the past 5 seasons. respectively.
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Bernie,
UNL has already backed down, and I don’t think the school was ever seriously considering leaving the B10. The governor, the coach and the fans might have been, though.
As you say, the B12 would seem the most likely home but they burned some bridges by leaving. The SEC doesn’t need them with their average football program recently, but would probably take them to get OU. Cable network fees aren’t the same prize they used to be with cord-cutting, and neither NE nor OK is a big state.
As I said above, I think this is mostly a sign of a newer member of the B10 not being as familiar with how things are done here.
I will say I’m disappointed how many coaches ran their mouths like it was their decision to make. I hate to break it to them, but it goes more like this (except for NW):
State government
Board of trustees
President
…
Players
…
…
AD
Coach
Unless the first 3 levels agree to allow it, nothing else matters. Then you need the players to agree (see their unity movement and demands). The AD would need a good reason to say no, but they’re still the boss of the coach. Just because coaches get paid more than anyone else doesn’t mean they have the power.
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Actually, it’s the same for Northwestern, Notre Dame, or any university. The state governor decides.
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Yes, Nebraska has backed down, but they had zero choice. They have no way to create a schedule. Who would they play?
My hypothetical is that the Big 12 wants them back (no I do not believe that for a second) and allows Big 12 schools to schedule NE this year as an out of conference game. That would be fun, but will not happen.
I do think that the Governor of Nebraska, Board, and president, would love to see the Huskers play football at almost any cost, but not at the cost of leaving the B1G, even if the Big 12 was waiting.
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Bob,
Yes, certainly the state government can always decide against it. But after that, I think the decision making process is a little different for NW versus the large state schools. Even if the decision makers are in the same order, the relative power between levels varies.
OSU certainly has received pressure because of the economic impact of OSU home games in ways I doubt NW has. It has also been told that as a state school, it should follow the lead of the state government as much as possible. Of course OSU is in Columbus, one of the hardest hit areas in OH, while much of the state government represents rural areas with relatively low COVID rates.
And of course OSU is doing all of this without a full-time president, further hindering the decision-making process. And the new president lacks experience with major college athletics anyway, so she has a steep learning curve at an inopportune time.
You’re probably glad to be out of teaching at this point.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29663042/ohio-state-iowa-football-parents-speak-outraged-big-ten-unfortunate-decision-postpone-season
Why are so many (red state) football parents so clueless? Are they that desperate for a share of their sons’ NFL money? They really don’t see the difference between sitting 6′ apart in a class or two with the rest online and spending hours breathing hard around multiple other people? They don’t understand that rapid testing is not widely available? They don’t understand the possible consequences of even asymptomatic COVID-19?
At least OSU’s parents knew better than to go to the commissioner.
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And of course after I post that, OSU’s parents declare they’re working on a letter to the B10. Idiots.
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Be nice. The fact is that the pandemic is largely over. The peak death rate happened some time ago, and we are pretty far out on the falling tail.
https://wmbriggs.com/post/32232/
There will be more cases and deaths, but pandemics begin when there are many susceptibles, and as the susceptibles succumb and are reduced in numbers, the pandemic peters out. Lockdowns merely drag out the process. They do not reduce the numbers of cases and/or deaths.
And as for your earlier comment, I am delighted to be retired. I could not stand working under the present conditions.
Also, I am waiting for tOSU to follow UNC and MSU and send the students home. ND has cancelled classes, too.
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Major criticism of the B1G and specifically Commissioner Kevin Warren over the lack of transparency from the B1G. https://247sports.com/Article/Big-Ten-lack-of-transparency-unity-after-canceling-fall-college-football-season-is-worrisome-150389180/
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Bernie,
Thanks for the link. Very interesting. This aren’t normal times but Warren seems to be failing during this crisis. I don’t know if it’s lack of leadership, communication or both. There’s different statements from Coaches, AD’s, Presidents etc.Seems to me Delany made sure everyone was on board before any action was taken. I’m not sure how Warren views his role as Commissioner. Right now the look the BIG is showing is not a good one.
Doug
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Doug,
I think communication has suffered under COVID because everyone is so busy with other things.
The presidents decided without telling the ADs – that’s actually not that unusual for the B10. The ADs always complain about it, but at some point they need to realize it isn’t a sports decision.
The presidents didn’t actually vote, but presumably because they had a clear consensus and didn’t see a need to vote. I doubt there is a bylaw that covers this circumstance and requires a vote. Like all B10 votes, the official vote would’ve been 14-0 anyway.
I do think they should’ve been more transparent, but it’s fairly obvious what information they based it on. People can disagree about how to interpret the info but it’s all out there for anyone to look at.
The biggest issue was releasing the new schedule a week before postponing. I think that was underlings do their jobs to create a new schedule, and maybe the ADs all signed off so they published it. The mistake was not waiting for the presidents to meet.
Some of this will improve as Warren gets more experience. Look at how Delany dealt with expansion: PSU vs NE vs UMD & RU. The process improved every time.
But a lot of this is misdirected anger. People are mad there won’t be football. People are mad about COVID, or don’t even believe in COVID.
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This may be a double posting, since my last post does not seem to be appearing. Major criticism of B1G and particularly Comm. Kevin Warren over a lack of transparency. https://247sports.com/Article/Big-Ten-lack-of-transparency-unity-after-canceling-fall-college-football-season-is-worrisome-150389180/
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And the look of the B1G and Commish Warren just got much worse. Will six teams play each other and have a season? What happens with the 8 that do not play? What about TV money? Will they get full or substantially full payment? Do the non playing schools share in the money? Even though Rutgers football had a bunch of COVID cases, the Gov of NJ has allowed fall high school sports. Would RU suddenly agree to play and have a no win season in exchange for a substantial pay check? This is a monumental mess and a lot of fingers may be pointed at Warren. https://www.outkick.com/rumor-six-big-ten-teams-would-play-a-10-game-season-under-new-proposal/
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Without even reading the link:
No, 6 teams won’t play on their own. The TV money gets split equally no matter what and the 6 would know that. They gave their media rights to the B10, and the B10 rules say schools get equal splits. I doubt they had a contingency written in for this scenario. I just don’t buy it. It’s wishful thinking, especially since OSU is about to start classes and then have a major spike in COVID cases (just like UNC, ND, MSU, etc.).
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https://bigten.org/news/2020/8/19/general-an-open-letter-to-the-big-ten-community.aspx
I think this settles it. It also answers much of the criticism.
Warren released an open letter:
… The vote by the Big Ten Council of Presidents and Chancellors (COP/C) was overwhelmingly in support of postponing fall sports and will not be revisited. …
…
We understand the disappointment and questions surrounding the timing of our decision to postpone fall sports, especially in light of releasing a football schedule only six days prior to that decision. From the beginning, we consistently communicated our commitment to cautiously proceed one day at a time with the health, safety and wellness of our student-athletes at the center of our decision-making process. That is why we took simultaneous paths in releasing the football schedule, while also diligently monitoring the spread of the virus, testing, and medical concerns as student-athletes were transitioning to full-contact practice.
While several factors contributed to the decision to postpone the 2020-21 fall sports season, at the core of our decision was the knowledge that there was too much medical uncertainty and too many unknown health risks regarding SARS-CoV-2 infection and its impact on our student-athletes.
Listed below are the primary factors that led to the Big Ten COP/C decision:
* Transmission rates continue to rise at an alarming rate with little indication from medical experts that our campuses, communities or country could gain control of the spread of the virus prior to the start of competition.
** As our teams were ramping up for more intense practices, many of our medical staffs did not think the interventions we had planned would be adequate to decrease the potential spread even with very regular testing.
** As the general student body comes back to campus, spread to student-athletes could reintroduce infection into our athletics community.
* There is simply too much we do not know about the virus, recovery from infection, and longer-term effects. While the data on cardiomyopathy is preliminary and incomplete, the uncertain risk was unacceptable at this time.
* Concerns surrounding contact tracing still exist, including the inability to social distance in contact sports pursuant to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. While risk mitigation processes (e.g., physical distancing, face coverings, proper hygiene, etc.) can be implemented across campus for the student body population, it became clear those processes could not be fully implemented in contact sports.
** With the start of full-contact practices and competitions, it became increasingly clear that contact tracing and quarantining would risk frequent and significant disruptions to the practice and competition calendar.
** Accurate and widely available rapid testing may help mitigate those concerns, but access to accurate tests is currently limited.
** Significant concerns also exist regarding the testing supply chain, generally, for many of our institutions.
…
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Warren made a big mistake by not releasing this at the same time as the decision was announced. The PAC issued a multi-page explanation of what they were doing and the B1G should have done so only. Hopefully the new Commissioner will learn from this.
Even now, what does overwhelming vote mean if six schools are really talking about playing? Still strange.
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Agreed, this looks like a rookie mistake. Someone in the B10 office should’ve have caught this error, too.
I know OSU was one of the schools listed and we are talking about playing, but we’re talking about playing in spring not this fall. Perhaps the blogger missed some context.
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If this is accurate, the story gets worse and worse. The claim is that every B1G athletic director wanted to play. How did this all play out. That is not totally clear. https://247sports.com/Article/Big-Ten-football-2020-season-postponed-Nebraska-Huskers-Bill-Moos-every-athletic-director-was-in-favor-of-fall-150585984/
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Bernie,
I disagree. I don’t think it matters at all, just like it doesn’t matter what the coaches or players wanted. The presidents are in charge. If they say no, the rest is just noise.
Of course the ADs wanted to play ($$$). Likewise we knew the coaches and players would want to play. The presidents had to be the adults in the room and consider the health and liability risks.
Why are the ADs talking like they have no access to their own presidents? PSU’s AD said she wasn’t sure if there was a vote. Here’s an idea, pick up the phone and ask your president rather than running to the media. Want to express your opinion to your president before the B10 meeting? Then call them and tell them, don’t act like it’s Warren’s job to represent you to your own president.
What happened is the presidents knew exactly what their ADs thought and overruled them, and now they’re letting Warren take all the heat.
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How do you know how the presidents reacted? There has been no information on that. If six schools actually considered for 10 minutes having their own schedule, do you think that those conversations took place without the school presidents involved?
Were all of the B1G ADs out on their own without consultation with the school presidents? How likely is that?
The total lack of info out of the B1G offices means that the public has no idea what happened. It is just as logical to assume that Warren made a decision and told the presidents what it would be. Once the decision was public, there was no way back. Did that happen? There is no way to know.
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Because they apparently didn’t feel a need to even hold a clear vote and tell the ADs about it – that shows there was consensus after discussion and we know the ADs had a different opinion.
OSU was supposedly on that list of 6 schools but the president-elect said it wasn’t true. And the next day Gene Smith said they were talking about playing in winter/spring, not fall. Do I think it’s possible several ADs talked to each other and tried get support for a plan? Sure. That doesn’t mean they ever had the president’s blessings.
Based on thew statements made by several ADs and coaches, clearly a lot of them weren’t in close consultation with their presidents. Because the presidents said no to a fall season while everyone else wanted it. We see this sort of thing in the B10. It’s exactly what happened when PSU was added, for example.
No, it isn’t logical to assume that. First, the presidents in no way, shape or form work for Warren and would not look favorably on him acting like they did. He’s from the NFL so he would understand that dynamic. Reports say Warren was still hoping for a fall season.
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The pandemic is largely over. New York had its largest number of daily deaths back in April, and the number of daily deaths there has been declining steadily, and is now several a day for the whole state. Various parts of the country peaked at different times (New York was early), but the numbers are falling almost everywhere.
Lockdowns do NOT decrease either the number of cases nor the number of deaths. They merely spread them out. The number of cumulative cases and cumulative deaths is set by the number of susceptible people at the beginning of the pandemic. By now, most of the susceptible people have caught the disease and either recovered or died. There are not enough susceptible people left to support another wave, although new cases and deaths will continue for a time at a low level.
What this means is that the risks of reopening schools and businesses is moderate to low. It certainly does not justify shutting down the economy nor preventing children and young adults from being educated. UNC shut down because of a hundred or so positive tests. They, and every university, have many hundreds of students (and faculty) come down with colds and flus every years without shutting down. The fact that the football program is continuing shows that student health is not the issue at UNC or ND or MSU or anywhere else.
The people at risk for serious illness are elderly (like me, 77) and who have some other condition. Obesity is a big contributor to risk of death. But the point is, we can identify people at risk, and we can devise schemes to protect them. Send your elderly, fat teachers home. Let them use Zoom.
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Bob,
The pandemic is largely over. New York had its largest number of daily deaths back in April, and the number of daily deaths there has been declining steadily, and is now several a day for the whole state. Various parts of the country peaked at different times (New York was early), but the numbers are falling almost everywhere.
I see a whole lot of assertions and no proof. My response is based on:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
I think Brazil, Mexico, India and other countries show the pandemic isn’t over. Worldwide new daily cases reached a peak of over 300,000 in mid-August. It’s too soon to see where it is headed, and much of Africa hasn’t been hit hard yet. Worldwide daily deaths have been largely plateaued at over 5000 since April, with a record of over 10,000 on 8/14. The cumulative cases and cumulative deaths curves are linearly upward the past few weeks.
But maybe you just meant in the US (reasonable for a discussion here). US daily cases peaked in mid-July so far, but back to school is just starting. Let’s see if that changes. The numbers are still higher than they were in March and April. Daily deaths are lower than in April because no/fewer hospitals are out of capacity but it’s still over 1000 per day. The cumulative cases curve is starting to flatten a little, but the cumulative death curve isn’t.
But let’s look closer. CA has not seen a clear second peak with cases dropping but rather is in a noisy state. States like FL, GA and TX have shown a peak and are now declining but are still above their levels in spring. IL is at a peak or still rising. NC might be improving yet is still near its peak.
If the numbers go down and stay down during September, then I’d agree the pandemic is over (at least for now) in the US. But daily cases in the US need to be fewer than 10,000 (haven’t been below 20k since late March) or deaths below 100 (haven’t had a day below 250 since late March). Those are my arbitrary thresholds, and you’re welcome to have your own. I’ll consider strong downward trends as indicative, but I need to see us get below some March numbers to call it over.
Lockdowns do NOT decrease either the number of cases nor the number of deaths.
How can you possibly know that?
The number of cumulative cases and cumulative deaths is set by the number of susceptible people at the beginning of the pandemic.
No, it also requires exposure. People who don’t get exposed don’t catch it. Evidence from the Spanish flu epidemic showed that quarantines kept a large percentage of people from ever being exposed.
By now, most of the susceptible people have caught the disease and either recovered or died.
Impossible to know, especially with the lack of testing in the US.
There are not enough susceptible people left to support another wave, although new cases and deaths will continue for a time at a low level.
Impossible to know, especially with the lack of testing in the US. Lots of elderly people have been quarantining for a while, as have other people with health issues.
What this means is that the risks of reopening schools and businesses is moderate to low.
Right, as clearly shown by the spikes in COVID that happen every time someplace opens up.
It certainly does not justify shutting down the economy nor preventing children and young adults from being educated.
That’s one opinion. And the economy isn’t shut down. The stock market is thriving, consumer spending was up temporarily, some things sell so fast the stores can’t keep any stock. The economy has shifted and shed a lot of jobs, but it isn’t shut down. And if people had just stayed home for a few weeks, then socially distanced and worn masks afterwards it would have only been a blip. Over 177k Americans didn’t have to die from COVID.
UNC shut down because of a hundred or so positive tests.
Almost like they were potentially a sign of an escalating problem, like a contagious disease spreading.
They, and every university, have many hundreds of students (and faculty) come down with colds and flus every years without shutting down.
Colds don’t kill people so don’t use such a weak comparison. The typical flu kills a lot fewer people and is less contagious and we have annual flu shots. And they ask sick people to stay at home with the flu, too.
The fact that the football program is continuing shows that student health is not the issue at UNC or ND or MSU or anywhere else.
They can isolate and test the team much easier than the entire student body. Plus, they can only make money from football if they play. Online students still pay tuition.
The people at risk for serious illness are elderly (like me, 77) and who have some other condition.
Thos are the people MOST at risk, not the only people at risk. Plenty of young, healthy people have gotten sick and suffered serious side effects (lung damage, heart damage, brain damage) or died.
Obesity is a big contributor to risk of death.
That’s true for all types of death.
But the point is, we can identify people at risk, and we can devise schemes to protect them.
You can identify some of them, but not all. That’s the problem.
Send your elderly, fat teachers home. Let them use Zoom.
Many of them are doing that.
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From Bruce Feldman with The Athletic:
“With all of the turmoil swirling around the Big Ten since its decision to postpone its football season, there is at least a little more optimism for a return to the field, perhaps as early as around Thanksgiving, sources told The Athletic Friday. A potential late-November start around Thanksgiving weekend, with a possible 10-game schedule, is one of several options being discussed by the conference, as well as a January start where the hope is that a conference title game might be played by early March with an eight-game regular season.”
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Unless all the games are played in Lucas Dome or at southern stadiums, football in winter in the B1G is impossible. SEC stadiums will be empty every other week, maybe they would let us use them.
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Bob, they were talking about using all the local domes (Indy, St.L, MSP, Detroit, even Syracuse) and maybe even others. If you don’t allow (many) fans, there are some smaller domes available as well (NDSU, UNI, ND, SD, NMU, ETSU).
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Alan,
How are y’all doing down there after Laura?
Important details about this option (from ESPN’s story):
According to a league source, the Big Ten is working with ADs, coaches and medical personnel on options for a late-fall or winter start to the football season. But the ultimate decision will be with presidents and chancellors, who are considering the health of their entire campuses and surrounding communities.
Again the football people are making plans and not asking the decision makers yet. That’s fine at this stage, don’t get me wrong, but it’s also exactly what lead to the uproar from postponing the season.
Right now OSU is worried about having to go fully online again (positivity rate is up in Week 1, transmission rate is hovering around 1 in the state) and no in-person classes are allowed after Thanksgiving (so nobody goes home and then comes back). It’s hard to think they would approve football games when the students aren’t allowed on campus for safety reasons. But if the numbers trend well, then it’s more likely.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/bigten/2020/09/03/big-ten-athletes-covid-had-myocarditis-symptoms-one-third-cases/5704234002/
Cases of myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle, appear to be prevalent among Big Ten athletes, said Penn State’s director of athletic medicine, impacting roughly one-third of all athletes who have tested positive for the coronavirus.
Wayne Sebastianelli, who is also the team doctor for Penn State football, said Monday during a meeting of the State College Area School District board of directors that cardiac scans of Big Ten athletes who contracted COVID-19 showed “30 to roughly 35 percent of their heart muscles” indicated symptoms of myocarditis.
…
Many cardiologists, “some high-level,” Sebastianelli said, would come to the conclusion that the high percentage of myocarditis cases are incidental and “may not warrant any further investigation or any further sort of concern.”
…
According to the Mayo Clinic, “In many cases, myocarditis improves on its own or with treatment, leading to a complete recovery.”
Even in mild cases, however, the clinic suggests that “persons should avoid competitive sports for at least three to six months.”
…
“What has been seen across some of the schools is that some of the athletes affected haven’t really recovered their full pulmonary function,” he said. “They just don’t train as hard as they normally can.
“We don’t know how long that’s going to last. What we have seen is when people have been studied with cardiac MRI scans — symptomatic and asymptomatic COVID infections — is a level of inflammation in cardiac muscle that just is alarming.”
This is exactly why the B10 was right to postpone football. We just don’t know how bad it will be in the long term for the athletes.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/bigten/2020/09/03/penn-state-clarifies-claim-big-ten-athletes-had-myocarditis/5710763002/
So of course PSU walks that back a few days later.
Comments made earlier this week by Penn State’s director of athletic medicine suggesting that roughly a third of Big Ten athletes who had contracted COVID-19 and undergone a cardiac scan showed heart-related issues were inaccurate, the university said in a statement shared Thursday evening.
Wayne Sebastianelli, who is also the team doctor for Penn State football, said during a meeting of the State College Area School District board of directors that these cardiac scans showed “30 to roughly 35 percent of their heart muscles” indicated symptoms of myocarditis.
According to a spokesperson in the university’s Office of Marketing and Communications, Sebastianelli was sharing “initial preliminary data that had been verbally shared by a colleague on a forthcoming study, which unbeknownst to him at the time had been published at a lower rate.”
“The research was not conducted by Dr. Sebastianelli or Penn State. Dr. Sebastianelli wishes to clarify this point, and apologize for any confusion,” said the statement.
No cases of myocarditis have been found among Penn State athletes, the university said. In the most recent round of testing, which spanned from Aug. 24-28, Penn State conducted 222 COVID-19 tests of students with one positive result.
Note they don’t say what the new, lower rate was.
This story from the NYTimes says it was almost 15% (if it’s the same study).
While 15% is much better than 30-35%, it’s still a large number.
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/football-is-coming-to-three-of-the-power-five-conferences-covid-19-is-already-there/
This article has a figure showing the COVID cases at each P5 school.
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The fatality rate for this age group is 0.1%. That’s one tenth of one percent. If 20,000 college students were infected the expected deaths would be 20.
Young adults (20 to 29 years old)
The important stats on young adults:
In Spain, out of 1,285 cases for people 20 to 29 (a much bigger sample size than we have for children), 183 of them have been hospitalized, a 14 percent rate; eight have ended up in intensive care, a 0.6 percent rate, and four people in this age range have died, a 0.3 percent fatality rate.
Italy and South Korea have reported no fatalities for this group; China reports that 0.2 percent of cases for these young people end in death.
The CDC covers a huge 20-44 age range in its data, but here’s what we know about that entire group: 14.3 percent hospitalized, 2 percent in the ICU, and 0.1 percent fatality rate.
Link to complete article.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age
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Honestly, we don’t really have enough data to know the true mortality rate. We don’t have nearly enough testing to know how many have had it. But I think everyone agrees the rate is not high. The problem is how contagious it is and who those young people with the virus might spread it to before they recover. A low percentage of 330,000,000 Americans is still a lot of people.
The mortality rate for prostate cancer is much less than 1% (if it hasn’t metastasized) but we take it seriously.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2020/09/08/college-football-player-jamain-stephens-dies-covid-complications/5752177002/
The first known CFB player death from COVID has happened. As a D-II school they weren’t playing football this fall.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku
The CDC shows 741 COVID deaths for people age 18-29 in the US.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2020/09/09/jamain-stephens-covid-cause-death-clarified-high-school/5761832002/
And now they have retracted the statement that they know the 1 player died from COVID-19. His cause of death is currently unknown.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29892180/lsu-coach-ed-orgeron-most-team-contracted-coronavirus
Ed Orgeron says most of his team has had COVID-19.
<"Not all of our players but most of our players have caught it," Orgeron told reporters. "I think that hopefully they won't catch it again and hopefully they're not out for games."
…
"Hopefully that once you catch you don't get it again," he said."I'm not a doctor. I think they have that 90-day window, so most of the players that have caught we do feel like they'll be eligible games."
Per SEC protocols, players who have contracted COVID-19 don't have to be tested again for 90 days.
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https://bigten.org/news/2020/9/19/big-ten-announces-schedule-for-2020-football-season.aspx
And the third B10 schedule for 2020 is out. 8 games then a parity week of like seeds playing, including the CCG.
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So the B10 season is finally about to start. On average, how many of the 8 scheduled games do we think COVID will allow each team will play?
The B10’s 21 day quarantine policy will make a lot of news. Nobody else is being that cautious.
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Considering that there is no slack, and that only one team has to test positive to cancel a game, I think every team loses at least one game. So I’m betting six to seven games.
A 6-0 tOSU might make the playoffs, if it gets to play UM, MSU and PSU plus either Minnie or Wisky in the championship. Otherwise not.
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Since a major reason to start the season is money, does anyone know how what percentage of their TV deals the B1G will get this season? Are their future concessions to get more cash this year?
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https://nebraska.rivals.com/news/big-red-business-tv-revenue-picture-coming-into-focus
The short answer is the B10 hasn’t said anything, but experts have opined.
One Big Ten source, speaking on background, said he believes the networks will essentially have to arrange interim agreements with each Power 5 conference. “While they certainly aren’t getting the same inventory that they desire,” he said, “maintaining the long-term relationship with their partners is also very important.”
Although the number of games played is going down, the average quality of games should go up, Matheson said, as non-conference cupcakes are off the schedule this year.
“So even with only 8 out of 12 games being played, I would expect way more than two-thirds of the tv revenue to be salvaged,” Matheson said.
My guess is that BTN might get shortchanged games if ABC and Fox need inventory.
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Is everyone surviving out there?
It’s weird to hear the CFP executive committee discussing the possibility of pushing back the playoffs. Is there any reason to expect a few extra weeks to make anything better? And what about all those academic reasons why you can’t push football back into the spring semester?
In the long run, I expect them to leave the timing alone. The selection committee will just have to deal with widely varying resumes for teams. I think there will be pressure to give more credence to conference championships this year rather than just eye-testing a second ACC or SEC team in because they’ve played more games. Anyone who says they definitively can tell how good all these teams are is lying or deluded.
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Picking up on your last point, do you think it’s possible they go to an 8 team playoff for just this year? Possible that some teams won’t even be able to complete a full limited schedule. So as you say trying to determine the best team seems a fool’s errand at this point. Do you take ND? Or ND & Clemson? That would seem to upset some conferences. If ND took 2 OT to beat Clemson without Lawrence, how might his playing have changed the outcome? Crazy times.
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Doug,
They have said they discussed the idea but decided not to. While it makes sense from a fan and fairness perspective, I think 3 major games are hard enough to run safely when bringing in college kids from all over the country. 4 more games is asking for COVID trouble.
At present, I think AL, OSU and ND would all get in if they win out. The tough decisions would be undefeated Oregon/UC/BYU vs 1-loss conference champs Clemson/UF and 1-loss non-champs ND/AL/TAMU.
ND and Clemson would play again if they both win out in the regular season, so we’d find out.
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Brian,
Good point. I totally forgot that ND-Clemson may play again. It’s a shame but it looks like a couple of good teams won’t make it.
However if there’s a major break out again the whole thing may go down the drain. I haven’t been paying as close attention this year as I should. What’s the word on Bowl Games in general for this season?
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I think the bowl schedule is the usual schedule, but obviously each city will have to decide if fans can attend. The NCAA doesn’t run the bowls, so there are no universal rules for bubbles or anything. I’m thinking teams will spend less time on site for COVID safety.
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ASun Expansion?
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-do-college-football-dynasties-fall/
A look at how CFB dynasties fall and other teams rise.
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Brian – Happy Thanksgiving.
While LSU has had a rough year on and off the field and I am a big fan of 538, I take exception to the author characterizing 2019 as a “one year explosion.”
Since the beginning of the BCS/CFP era, Bama has 5 national championships and 7 SEC titles. During that same period, LSU has 3 national championships and 5 SEC titles. But for the 2011 season when the BCS put a non-division winning Bama that lost to LSU in November in Tuscaloosa in the title game, LSU & Bama would most likely be even with 4 NCs apiece. The 2011 championship should have featured LSU & OK State. Am I still bitter about 2011? Obviously!
Granted over the last 10 years, Bama is 7-3 against LSU, but it’s not like 2019 was on one off.
With the exception of Alabama, LSU possesses the most NCs (3) in this century. That is more than the B1G, the Big XII, and the Pac-12.
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Alan,
Good to see you’re still around after all the storms hitting Louisiana, and during a pandemic no less.
I think the author is a numbers person more than a CFB fan. He looked at 10-year windows and only looked at who finished #1 (nationally and in conferences). In the past 10 years, 2019 LSU looks like a one off if you only consider titles. AL has won 7 of the last 10 SEC titles and 4 NCs over that period. LSU won the SEC in 2011 and 2019 in the current 10-year window.
His methodology was designed to spot dynasties (AL, Clemson, OSU, Carroll’s USC, …). And he had specific criteria he used to define a dynasty. Because of AL, LSU didn’t quite reach that status. I think LSU’s fall this season (and not so great seasons under Orgeron before 2019) plays into his narrative, too.
I agree you (and OkSU and all CFB fans, really) got screwed in 2011.
Happy Thanksgiving!
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30424417/i-wishof-well-demise-southwest-conference-25-years-later
A retrospective piece on the demise of the SWC, and its legacy.
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Brian – I just finished the article. Not really any new information but a great read with all the quotes from administrators, coaches, players, and boosters.
What a great Christmas present from ESPN for all us realignment junkies!
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I see a new format for the blog. Does that mean Frank will post some new essays?
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I don’t know if Frank updated it or if WordPress just changed the template and it automatically updated all blogs using that template.
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I’m alive, everyone! It has been a long time and hope that everyone is staying safe! Yes, I’m working on some ideas, so I hope that get some new material up soon. I figured it was time for a refresh of the blog look, as well. Thanks for keeping the conversation going!
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Frank,
Great to see you back. Stick around for a while, please. It’s been pretty quiet here the past couple of years since my new job leaves me less time for posting.
The Knight Commission just gave you some fodder with their report saying FBS football should be broken off from the NCAA and forced to govern themselves.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30444422/knight-commission-endorses-fbs-split-ncaa
“Every other sport looks like a duck and walks like a duck and probably is a duck,” Knight Commission co-chair Arne Duncan told ESPN. “That one [football] looks like a pterodactyl. It’s not like the others, and it’s had a wildly disproportionate impact on everything else. It doesn’t make sense.”
I’m not sure how similar D-I men’s basketball is to other sports, either, at least financially. But without March Madness, the NCAA would collapse, so magically the proposal says to keep hoops and ditch the only sport the NCAA doesn’t own the postseason for. This sounds more like a plan to protect and preserve the NCAA than to fix issues in college sports.
If FBS football is driven out, wouldn’t those schools want to take all their sports with them? Why split all that March Madness money with the little guys if you have all the extra costs of running your own organization? And how is a new organization going to fix the problems, not just move them out of the NCAA? It’s still run by its members and all the same issues will remain. Wouldn’t creating a separate division within the NCAA accomplish the same things?
And you have the COVID financial impacts to examine. And then TV negotiations should get started soon.
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SEC and EPSN just announced that that the CBS package will move to ABC beginning in 2024. 10 years at least $300 million per season. SEC gets the 3:30p window on ABC and at up to six prime slots on ABC.
Frank – I am unable to post a link.
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Yes, and people scoffed when I threw out that number 2+ years ago. I wonder what CBS will be showing instead.
And I wonder what this does for the B10’s next deal now that the bar has been set.
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Brian – I think the B1G & P-12 ought to take that CBS timeslot when the SEC vacates. With FOX as a continued partner, they could leave ESPN entirely or keep a partial ESPN package with a B1G game at noon and a late P-12 game.
The entire SEC package has been monetarily undervalued for years, but previous commissioners Kramer & Slive saw value in exposure. The exclusive 3:30p window on CBS has, for a generation, created SEC fans with no SEC ties, in places like upstate New York and Montana.
Based on ratings alone, the B1G has been overvalued and they have been ahead of the market. I do suspect the B1G will get a bump in their next round.
The Athletic’s Andy Staples has a great piece out on the SEC/ABC-ESPN-Disney deal. Check it out.
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Huh. Apparently, this blog is still alive! Hi everybody.
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Also, no tOSU-UM this in football. But at least the Big Ten – ACC Challenge is still a go in basketball.
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Well this is bizarre.
https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/football/harsin-urged-boise-state-leadership-to-leave-mountain-west-conference-emails-show/article_f855ea98-7e28-5d58-a3b4-b2504031bbf5.html
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Sounds like a typical football coach – what’s best for him is best for the school. Dump all the other sports wherever you can, just upgrade the football alignment.
I assume he wants the AAC, because even he has to know that the P12 has zero interest in BSU. No other G5 conference is more prestigious than the MWC. I suppose the AAC might want a 12th football member, and they probably wouldn’t want the other sports for travel reasons.
It could be a reasonable pairing from both sides, thought BSU is pretty far from the other schools. And the AAC already has a CCG so they wouldn’t get a CCG bump for going to 12. Still, BSU probably would bring some TV money.
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https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/12/15/lsu-knew-officials-skirted-title-ix-policy-failed-to-report-sexual-misconduct-guice-davis-2018/3859884001/
USA Today has a big story about LSU and Title IX issues regarding sexual assaults. Sorry Alan.
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I’d like to see the results of the investigation first, but these allegations are unconscionable. If true, LSU as an institution, the administrators, and the former players deserve whatever they get, from a punishment standpoint.
Interim president Galligan was the law school dean in when these allegations happened. AD Woodward was at A&M. But if Coach O had any part of this, he needs to go.
I love my Tigers, but if true, you’ll hear no excuses from me.
FYI – the two players mentioned were not part of the team during the magical 2019 season.
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I am posting this just to see if I can.
Rutgers beat Maryland in three sports in a couple of days. Football, men’s bball and women’s bball. Maybe RU will not be such a big embarrassment any more.
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OK, great to see you back Frank.
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More Boise Drama
https://www.idahopress.com/blueturfsports/boise-state-and-the-aac-emails-show-conversations-research-on-possible-move/article_b8d969b8-e40d-5693-bbd9-81a0d276101e.html
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Mike,
It probably makes financial sense, but they are demoting all their other sports to further the football agenda. At some point does it become a Title IX issue to downgrade all the women’s teams to lesser conferences so football can keep moving up?
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I’ve always felt that the best move for Boise, BYU & the B-12 is a football-only alliance. The B-12 could throw $5-6 million to each & make more than that off the networks during the next round. BYU is already in the WCC for all other sports. Boise could do the same.
The question is whether the B-12 would take them. Obviously, they haven’t in the past. But they are the two best, most consistent options out there and the B-12 doesn’t really have any good choices for all sports members, as their committee found a few years ago.
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Alan,
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/30582508/dan-mullen-florida-gators-handed-penalties-recruiting
How are SEC fans taking the news of UF being “punished” for cheating?
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Brian -when Mullen was in StarkVega$, he was a plucky over achiever. Now that he’s in Gainesville, he’s just an A-Hole.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/columnist/dan-wolken/2020/12/24/college-basketball-seeks-answers-keyontae-johnson-heart-condition/4040170001/
Keyontae Johnson, the UF hoops player who almost died on the court, has been diagnosed with acute myocarditis. This is after he had COVID-19 during the summer.
This was exactly the issue that concerned the B10 so much that they cancelled the football season initially. He is not the only NCAA athlete to be diagnosed with AM after having COVID, either.
Some large questions loom:
Did Florida’s post-COVID-19 medical evaluation of Johnson miss something? Are the SEC’s cardiac protocols, which include an EKG and echocardiogram but not necessarily a cardiac MRI exam — which is required by the Big 12 and Big Ten — rigorous enough? Or was Johnson’s condition not related to COVID-19 at all?
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2021/01/02/ohio-state-handles-clemson-college-football-semifinal-sugar-bowl/4108913001/
I must say, it was nice to finally get the monkey off our backs and beat Clemson (though we were robbed by the refs last year). Having a decisive win also quiets the critics about whether OSU belonged. And to shut up Dabo, even for a few days, is a public service.
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Brian – congratulations! The Superdome is a house of horrors for Clemson. The paper Tigers are 0-3 in the Dome and have never won a bowl game in the state of Louisiana (0-5). You’re welcome!
Geaux Bucks! Beat Bama!
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Larry Scott is leaving the PAC 12 in June.
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/30750860/sources-larry-scott-pac-12-commissioner
Scott’s contract ran through June 2022, but the conference has chosen to give him his walking papers a year early so they can have some else already in place during the next round of TV negotiations.
He leaves an interesting legacy. He was clearly someone who wanted to fundamentally reshape the business of college sports and he did (briefly) get the PAC-12 the biggest TV contract in history.
That said, his ambitions ultimately exceeded his (and perhaps anyone else’s) capabilities. The PAC-12 Networks, which were initially viewed as game changers, have never come close to meeting even he league’s most pessimistic forecasts and it is now clear that his decision to have the league go it alone, instead of bringing on a strategic partner, was a mistake.
Meanwhile his attempts at aggressive expansion didn’t pan out either. In 2010 he got played by Texas (who leveraged his plan to annex the Big 12 South into getting their TV channel). The next year his own school presidents pulled out the rug from underneath after he appeared to secure deal to add OU and OSU. When that fell apart he tried to compensate by arranging the PAC-B1G scheduling alliance only to once again have his bosses kill the deal at the last second.
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Scott leaves a mixed legacy.
He did drag the P10 out of the stone age with regards to their media approach. But they were never going to compete with the B10 and SEC financially due to alumni/fan interest in CFB, and that is not his fault.
It was probably a mistake not to partner with someone on the P12N, but that assumes that a partner was willing and able to pay them well to do it. I seem to recall that ESPN and Fox both showed little to no interest. The presidents ultimately made that decision. I don’t know how much carriage the P12N would’ve gotten even with a media partner, especially after people started cutting the cord nationally. College athletics just don’t have the same hold on a large portion of the population regionally as they do elsewhere.
Scott clearly made errors with the expensive office location and reaching for 7 networks. I’m not sure even the SEC could support all those regional networks.
Let’s see how this next round of TV deals go. If one of the tech firms steps up, the bet to own 100% of the rights internally might still pay off.
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He wasn’t responsible for the stupidity and arrogance of the Pac presidents. The scheduling alliance with the B1G would have solved the PAC’s geographically isolation problems.
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Bob, correct me if I’m wrong, but when the PAC turned down the BIG scheduling alliance, Delany announced that the BIG was looking to expand. Panic ensued among some Conferences and set off the Expansion wave.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/media/2021/01/22/nbcsn-to-shut-down-2021/6678669002/
Major news in the sports media world – NBCSN is going away at the end of 2021. The major sports will shift to USA Network, while the niche stuff will either shift to streaming or go away. Is this a one off, or has cord cutting reached a point where some of the sports channels will go away?
“We’re absolutely committed more than ever to live sports as a company, and having such a huge platform like USA Network airing some of our key sports content is great for our partners, distributors, viewers and advertisers alike,” NBC Sports Group Chairman Pete Bevacqua told the Wall Street Journal.
NBC is home to many big sports properties including the NHL, NASCAR, IndyCar and soccer’s English Premier League, with large swaths of games and races broadcast on NBCSN. In his memo to staff on Friday, Bevacqua said, “USA Network will begin carrying and/or simulcasting certain NBC Sports programming, including NHL Stanley Cup Playoff games and NASCAR races, as part of a larger transition within the company.”
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The SEC released their 2021 schedule today. Every team is playing at one P5 OOC game & UGA is playing two.
9/4
Alabama v Miami (ATL)
UGA v Clemson (CLT)
LSU @ UCLA – I’m going!
Ole Miss v Louisville (ATL 9/6)
9/11
Texas @ Arkansas
NC State @ Miss State
Pitt @ Tennessee
A&M v Colorado (DEN)
9/18
Auburn @ Penn State
Stanford @ Vandy
9/25
Mizzou @ BC
11/27
Florida St @ Florida
UGA @ GA Tech
Kentucky @ Louisville
Clemson @ South Carolina
Non-traditional cross-division games are:
9/18 Alabama @ Florida
10/2 Arkansas @ UGA
10/9 LSU @ Kentucky
10/16 Ole Miss @ Tennessee; A&M @ Mizzou
10/23 Miss State @ Vandy
11/20 Auburn @ South Carolina
Hopefully, after the current cross-division rotation is completed in 2024 and the new ABC deal kicks in, the SEC will either go to a 9 game conference schedule or mandate 10 P5 games. The one good thing about the 2020 season was no cupcakes, although my Tigers could have used a few. 2020 may have opened some eyes and ABC/ESPN may demand as part of their $300M+ deal.
FYI – the Saturday before rivalry week does include a wide variety of cupcakes, along with a few conference games: ARK @ AL; Vandy @ OM; UF @ Mizzou; and Auburn @ USC e. Not ideal, but enough to fill the CBS & ESPN requirements.
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https://www.si.com/college/2021/02/02/college-football-recruiting-transfer-portal-covid
A good article about the recruiting issues the NCAA is facing in future years due to the free year of eligibility they gave out for COVID-19 and the transfer portal.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31011413/investigation-lsu-football-reveals-firing-recommended-coach-les-miles-2013
Alan, the stories about this investigation at LSU are not good. What are you hearing? Is there any major change coming? Are jobs at stake? Or will this be the standard “implementing new procedures” sort of thing?
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Brian – it’s not good, but I expected it to be worse. Not to the PennState or Michigan State level, but still bad.
The independent review was released today with 18 recommendations. My understanding is that LSU will adopt them all. Two athletic department employees that were prominently mentioned in the USATODAY articles have been suspended without pay. I expected them to be fired.
Most of the leadership that was in place when most of the violations occurred are now gone, including the president, athletic director, general counsel, and of course Les Miles.
While the newsworthy names are athletes, this appears to be a system-wide issue. Not sure what the NCAA can or will do. I fully expect LSU to get sued – a lot.
From what I’ve read, Les does not appear to be any type of sexual predator, but just a creepy old man who thought he was still cool, and that it was okay to flirt with co-eds.
I watched most of the press conference and read the recommendations, but I haven’t read the report yet.
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Well that escalated quickly. Miles is out at KU and the AD may be right behind him.
It’s a tough time for KU to find a new coach, especially with I-AA playing in spring. Will G5 coaches leave their teams during (or just before) spring practice to go to KU? Probably, if the money is good enough. Maybe they can get an NFL assistant.
You’d like to think they’d hire a minority coach with the mood in the country and how their previous old white guy failed. They could potentially use that as an edge in recruiting.
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https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/31040149/jeff-long-kansas-athletic-director-sources-say
Boom. And now the AD is out, after “vetting” his friend before hiring him. The $2M settlement with Miles to go away probably didn’t help matters.
Free advice to ADs:
1. Use a search firmto hire the FB and MBB coaches, so if any skeletons are found in the coach’s closet later it was not your responsibility to find them.
2. Don’t hire your friend. It will always look bad when things go wrong, and they usually do.
3. If you do hire your friend, very publicly recuse yourself from any discussions related to his salary/buyout/settlement.
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2021/03/22/march-madness-big-ten-having-historically-bad-mens-ncaa-tournament/4802503001/
Gee, what a great opening weekend for the B10 in the tourney.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31121644/oregon-state-president-f-king-alexander-offers-resign-role-miles-saga
Alan, how are LSU folks reacting to Alexander getting fired (I mean resigning)? He pretty much threw LSU under the bus in his meeting with the OrSU BoT, and then LSU’s BoT replied in kind.
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There’s a reason why he’s referred to as F*King Alexander down here. He burned every bridge in Louisiana before he left, mainly related to the medical schools and the Greek system. At the time, the LSU board did Alexander a favor by allowing him time to find a new job rather than be fired.
There’s a lot one can say about the culture and politics down here, but not after you were part of it for seven years and had a package paying way better than our academic standing would suggest. Alexander had greater power than any of his predecessors, as the board and former governor Bobby Jindal combined the responsibilities of system president and Baton Rouge chancellor into one position just for him. To say he was powerless, when the Les Miles creepy stuff occurred, is just not true. In addition, Alexander lied to the OSU board about some LSU board vote on Miles’ conduct that never happened.
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Fresh off winning his 15th national title, legendary Texas’ Men’s Swimming and Diving coach Eddie Reese has announced his retirement.
https://swimswam.com/after-15th-ncaa-title-texas-coach-eddie-reese-retiring-after-tokyo/
Reese isn’t just the greatest college swimming coach of all time, he might be the best NCAA coach regardless of sport. During his time at UT, the team won 42 consecutive conference titles, national championships in 5 different decades and more or less dominated the sport.
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He is certainly one of the best, but I’d throw Dan Gable (wrestling) into the mix. He coached for 22 seasons, winning 22 B10 titles and 16 NCAA titles including 9 straight.
Mary Jo Ruggieri won 17 national titles in 19 season with OSU’s synchronized swimming team, granted against relatively few other teams.
I’m sure there are some other greats in the non-revenue sports, too.
Geno Auriemma has to be up there. 11 national titles. 13 straight final fours, 21 overall. 26 conference titles.
John Wooden? 10 national titles in 12 years (7 in a row) including 4 undefeated seasons.
Nick Saban and his 7 national titles?
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I think my Mount Rushmore would be Auriemma, Gable, Reese, and Wooden alphabetically. Saban could have a chance to earn a place up there depending on how the rest of his career goes. I’ll admit I don’t really know enough about Ruggieri but she certainly would have a strong case.
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The greatest coach of all time, in any sport, at any level, is Jim Steen of Kenyon, now retired.
31 consecutive men’s national titles, 150 individual champions, 300 All Americans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Steen
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Some info on what the P12 wants in its new commissioner (it sounds like an anti-Scott in some ways).
The conference wants a “lifelong learner” and “thought leader,” not someone “who thinks they have all the answers.”
Not surprisingly, there’s a desire for candidates with strong “business acumen” and “a demonstrated track record of quickly accelerating revenue.”
The framing of the job description indicates that Turnkey, which assisted the ACC on its commissioner search last year, is pushing the Pac-12 presidents to cast the widest possible net.
…
The second sentence of the executive summary builds on that theme: “This role is for an individual who not only embraces change, but thrives in it.”
There are sections detailing the conference’s commitment to inclusion, to student-athlete well-being, to academic excellence and to “all around athletic performance.”
The success of Pac-12 Olympic sports is laid out in considerable detail.
There is no mention of football, other than within general descriptions of the conference being a member of the Football Bowl Subdivision.
One of the most revealing passages falls under the section titled ‘Representative Position Summary (not exhaustive).’
It states:
“While historically intercollegiate conference offices have been focused on sport operations and the business of the ‘collective,’ the Pac-12 is open to a more modern conference structure and approach which can be seen in several professional sports leagues. Those leagues offer members best practices, benchmarking, market intelligence, business intelligence, sales support, content support, etc. to assist members in their unique local markets. If a similar approach can help Pac-12 member schools vis-à-vis student-athletes, coaches, administrators, alumni and followers, the Pac-12 is open to it.”
…
“Analyze and assess the key business relationships and contractual commitments not only at the Conference level, but also assist Pac-12 schools in benchmarking key agreements. The Pac-12 Network will need to be assessed and strategized to determine how best to proceed with this key asset.”
…
In the Executive Summary, there is a stated desire to find a “Servant leader” who is “Strong yet humble.”
“The Pac-12 isn’t necessarily desirous of an ongoing ‘spokesperson,’’’ the document states. “Everything has its time and place. The Commissioner and communications team should discern when and how to deploy communications effectively for the collective.”
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https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/31209814/sources-arizona-wildcats-fire-coach-sean-miller
So Arizona is finally firing Sean Miller, but they are paying out his contract (1 year left. What are they hiding that they don’t fire him for cause (huge NCAA violations still in the pipeline) and not pay him a penny? Afraid he tell the NCAA the truth and get you years of penalties?
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https://www.espn.com/soccer/uefa-champions-league/story/4364173/man-unitedjuventustottenham-among-team-to-participate-in-super-league
Presumably we have all heard about the European Super League being formed (in soccer). I think the response it’s getting is exactly what would happen if CFB ever tried to form the national superconference of the top 16-24 teams like some have suggested. Even the P5 trying to breakaway from D-I would probably get this same reception.
ESPN has been told by a person familiar with the blueprint that the proposed framework involves a total of 20 teams, with 15 permanent members who cannot be relegated.
UEFA is up in arms because this would undercut Champions League. The national associations are angry because they lose control and the money these top teams bring. Oh wait, sorry, they’re all upset that these teams will be protected from relegation and that other teams can’t aspire to promotion to the super league.
Fans of the EPL clubs not invited are mad because it cements their place as second-tier, though everyone has talked about the big 6 in English football for decades. Many fans of the super league teams are also upset because they’ll lose old rivalries.
I don’t know if this league will ever actually form, but if not it will certainly get some concessions from UEFA and maybe even from the national leagues (EPL, Serie A, La Liga).
It is interesting that none of the French or German squads have agreed to join so far.
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Well, it looks like the soccer deal isn’t going to work out. We all knew it would never work in CFB, but it’s still fun to dream. The Athletic, ESPN, SI, and CFN all did “what would it look like” articles.
Here’s mine:
Div A:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
LSU
Clemson
Florida State
Miami
Div B
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Texas
Oregon
USC
11 game regular season (7 division, 4 cross division games)
4 team Playoff (A-1 v B-2, B-1 v A-2) at the Sugar and Rose every year on NYD.
Championship on MLK Day at TBA.
8 year contract with no relegation, but no guarantee to be in the next super group.
This list includes every King from Mandel’s most recent list in 2017. The Barons included are Auburn, Georgia & Oregon. All have either won or played for the national championship since 2010.
Barons left out are Arkansas, GA Tech, Washington, Wisconsin, A&M, Ole Miss, Michigan State, UCLA, Tennessee, Nebraska, Stanford, West Virginia, and VA Tech.
Tennessee won the BCS in 98; Va Tech played for the BCS; Nebraska was great in the 90s – winning pre-BCS NCs; Michigan State & Washington made a CFP Semi appearance. If I expanded to 24, they’d all be in, along with A&M, Wisconsin & Stanford.
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Alan,
It’s tough to do this since you need to make several controversial decisions:
1. League size
2. Length of season
3. Playoff size
4. Membership
If the goal is to maximize revenue, and I think it is, then I would suggest going with 24 teams in pods of 6.
You play 10 games:
* 5 in your pod
* 3 against other pods – 1st game of the year is based on the final standings from the previous year (A1 vs B1, C1 vs D1, etc.), final game of the year is based on current standings (A1 vs C1, B1 vs D1, etc.), and 1 game mid-season that rotates (A vs D, B vs C)
* 2 against teams outside the league to preserve rivalries and help spread the wealth.
I would expand the playoff to 8:
* A1 vs D2, D1 vs A2 -> Winners play in semis
* B1 vs C2, C1 vs B2 -> Winners play in semis
All regular season games are on campus. The quarterfinals are in December on campus. Semifinals and finals are in neutral sites that rotate and include all regions equally (LA, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas, New Orleans, Miami, Atlanta, but also Indy, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Detroit, Seattle, …). Venue must be warm weather or a dome (no outdoors games in DC, NYC, Boston, Chicago, KC, Charlotte, etc.).
Membership:
The key is to balance tradition with recent success and include all regions.
North: OSU, UM, PSU, WI, MSU, NE
East: ND, WV, VT, Clemson, FSU, Miami
South: AL, AU, LSU, UGA, UF, UTn
West: UW, UO, USC, UTx, OU, BYU
6 – B10, SEC
4.5 – ACC
3 – B12, P12
1.5 – other
You could certainly make arguments for other teams to be in, especially over BYU, but they bring the mountain region (and SLC) and provide hope for the underdogs. You’d probably need to add relegation to this system to get approval, so the bottom team in each pod over 4 years gets dropped and a local conference champ replaces them.
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Well that did not last long as the 6 English teams are out, apparently due to pressure from the British government. No German or French teams ever said that they were in and there was an immediate rejection from the French Prime Minister.
I agree with Brian that if a group of 20 or so college football teams tried this, the political backlash would be the same as in Britain and France. Too many members of Congress would be under huge pressure to stop it.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/chelseas-reported-pullout-threatens-to-undo-european-super-league-in-its-infancy-01618949508
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I have to wonder if either Alan or Brian actually attended college. They seem to be completely disconnected from any idea of college tradition, of the deep historic relationships among the schools in a conference, at least for the B1G, maybe not for some others.
A few years ago Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick said, “Notre Dame’s just not prepared to participate in any model where the athlete isn’t a student first and foremost — that’s the hallmark for us. If the entire model were to move toward athletes as employees, we’d head in a different direction. Our president has been clear about that. I’m not articulating a unique position.”
I suspect quite a few schools would drop football rather pay the athletes salaries. Say Northwestern, Purdue, Wisconsin, Stanford, Cal Berkeley, Texas…
The schools participating in any super conference would be cut off from all other schools, and they should be. tOSU supports some 32 varsity sports. Is it prepared to drop everything except football. What would the feds say about that?
I think the fans would revolt, too. That’s what happened in Europe. If you are an tOSU grad in Chicago, you really like the visits to Ryan field.
Finally, are the fans of tOSU or Alabama or any of the other schools in the super conference prepared for season after season of 6 wins, 6 loses. That’s the average record in any conference. It would the average record in the super conference.
The fact is the Kings need Princesses to beat up on to prove how good they are. tOSU really, really needs Illinois and Purdue and Rutgers. It doesn’t need to play 12 games with Alabama and Clemson every year.
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Bob – I did. I earned a BA from LSU and a JD from Tulane. I know a super league would never happen. Maybe you glossed over my introduction. For your convenience, I have copied it here.
“Well, it looks like the soccer deal isn’t going to work out. We all knew it would never work in CFB, but it’s still fun to dream. The Athletic, ESPN, SI, and CFN all did “what would it look like” articles.
Here’s mine:”
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Bob,
Just like Alan, this was all premised on it being purely fantasy that has zero chance of happening. The schools don’t even want it. Only a few “fans” claim to actually want something like this. But we haven’t had a good round of pointless speculation in a while. Would you rather we share our plans for getting to 16+ team superconferences again instead?
As for schools dropping athletics rather than pay athletes, I’ll believe it when I see it. They might cut way back on expenses and not try to compete with the powers anymore, but ultimately they need the CFB and MBB money to support all the other sports and all the athletic debt they have. Sports also drives donations and recruiting of students. I note that none of those schools is dropping sports (or even to I-AA) over recent changes like NIL. At least the Ivies somewhat live up to their opinions about the place of sports.
NFL fans do just fine with teams not winning all the time. I’m sure many CFB fans would adjust, and new fans would show up.
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I do not think that all of the many politicians pushing to allow pay for likeness have a clue where it will go. I agree that at least a number of P5 schools could decide that Big Time college FB may not be worth it.
If Trevor Lawrence were coming out of high school today as the top ranked player and QB in the country, couldn’t he easily earn $500,000 per year for endorsements and use of his likeness as a freshman? It would go up in subsequent years. Some of these kids will get money comparable to rookie contracts in the NFL.
I am sure that Birmingham AL boosters would see great value in getting the top player in the country, and a QB. no less. Does tOSU or LSU have comparable boosters? How about Nike in Oregon? Would the Ducks suddenly have the top recruiting class every year while Nike put out sneakers with players faces on the shoes?
Will common fans go for it? Every 5 star FB or mens’ bball player can have a legal bidding war. How much will the star female player get? 15 cents? Title XI implications? Probably not since this will be forced by legislation. Resentment? Overwhelming.
Will a large group of colleges decide that they will not allow sale of likeness and make it clear to players that they should go elsewhere if they not like that
Will that lead to 15 or 20 schools forming their own football league, with problems placing their other sports?
This is opening Pandora’s box, unless there are serious limits on what any player can legally make for likeness. And that may not work.
I agree that there are good arguments for giving players more than scholarships, but carefully.
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Jersey Bernie,
I do not think that all of the many politicians pushing to allow pay for likeness have a clue where it will go.
What, politicians opine without deep knowledge of the subject? Never! I think we all agree they don’t know what dominoes will fall, in part because nobody does.
I agree that at least a number of P5 schools could decide that Big Time college FB may not be worth it.
If they have to pay the players directly, maybe. Not just over NIL. Schools like NW need that $60M per year from the B10 to afford all their other teams and pay for facilities debt.
[…]
I am sure that Birmingham AL boosters would see great value in getting the top player in the country, and a QB. no less. Does tOSU or LSU have comparable boosters? How about Nike in Oregon? Would the Ducks suddenly have the top recruiting class every year while Nike put out sneakers with players faces on the shoes?
I think Nike will pay any of them that go to schools that wear Nike – generally the proposed NIL rules all stipulate the player can’t violate the school’s apparel deal. And yes, all the big schools have idiot boosters who will waste millions on athletes.
Will common fans go for it? Every 5 star FB or mens’ bball player can have a legal bidding war.
They go for it now, and recruiting is a growing business getting more and more attention. Did the recent hoops scandals drive anyone away?
How much will the star female player get? 15 cents?
A few stars would get paid, like the top UConn hoopster(s). Maybe a few other sports would have a rich fan that wants a winning team in WVB or something.
Title XI implications? Probably not since this will be forced by legislation.
Also not since Title IX is about the schools offering equal opportunities. If the schools aren’t paying for NIL, then it is still fair from that standpoint.
Resentment? Overwhelming.
Aren’t CFB players already resented by the non-scholarship or partial scholarship athletes in non-revenue sports already? Who flies to games vs taking a bus? Who gets a week at a 5-star resort for a postseason trip vs a day trip locally? Who gets unlimited tutors, medical training, brand new equipment, …?
Will a large group of colleges decide that they will not allow sale of likeness and make it clear to players that they should go elsewhere if they not like that
I don’t think they’ll have the ability to refuse it. It will be an outside decision and a right of the person. I think only the academies might be able to prevent it.
This is opening Pandora’s box, unless there are serious limits on what any player can legally make for likeness. And that may not work.
Most NIL proposals have had some cap, like fair market value. If you have to allow NIL, I’m not sure they can cap it any other way.
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No time to go into detail, but Phil Knight gave $465 million to the University of Oregon in 2020 and prior to that gave another $500 million. He did not give that to other schools.
How much would Knight and Nike be willing to invest to win a few national championships while Phil is still around to enjoy them? 10 million dollars per class for football and basketball should do it. Do that four or five years in a row and it is a tiny part of what he has donated to date. He can probably buy some pretty good recruiting classes with enough money.
Look at the hundreds of millions that T. Boone Pickens gave to Oklahoma State before passed away.
Now much of it can go directly to players with no legal issues.
https://fishduck.com/2020/03/phil-knights-lasting-legacy-for-oregon/
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That supposes you could win with the best team money could buy. Yankees proved that wasn’t necessarily so. Also there are any number of big money men in Columbus who would give to Ohio State and I’m sure all the other big named schools would get the same support. The other advantage schools like Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, LSU, Texas all have a certain cachet about them that I’m not sure Oregon has. Just my opinion.
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Jersey Bernie,
Sure, Phil Knight could do that. But he won’t get a tax break for buying players unlike he did for donating to UO. Also, what Knight would do is different from what Nike would do. He owns it, but he doesn’t run it anymore. Does Nike want to aggravate the fans of a bunch of other schools (and maybe parts of the general public) by buying players for just one school? Is that good business? Especially when Phil can afford to just pay out of pocket for it?
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There is a huge difference between the Yankees in MLB and a college that can recruit multiple 5 star players for relatively little money. In MLB one or two players a year cannot buy a championship. In college sports, it can.
As far are the Nike point, it is an example. The fact is that there are only a handful of schools that will have boosters who can and will buy teams.
Does Gonzaga have big money boosters or will the days of the “upstart” be over? The Zags have had great basketball for years, but what happens when all of the five star and top four stars players are purchased by boosters for a handful of schools?
Texas is a good example. Wealthy school with, presumably, lots of rich boosters. Maybe a purchase of extra five star or two per year will do what recruiting could has not been able to do and restore Texas to its rightful place playing for national championships every year.
Does Oklahoma have boosters with the kind of money that Texas has? If not, their rivalry is in big trouble.
Without major controls, this will change college sports dramatically. Will that simply mean that 10 or 15 programs will control both football and basketball? In the case of football, that may not be that big a change.
As far as fans and Nike, how long will it take before fans from schools around the country are not happy to realize that Trevor Lawrence could be making a million dollars a year in college FB. And do not doubt that he could have, if not at Clemson, then somewhere.
Now with unlimited transfers, how much would an experienced top three of four QB be worth on the open market from booster looking for use of a likeness? It has to be at least $500,000 per year. If Alabama were loaded (as usual) but needed a star QB, running back, etc., how much could boosters raise to attract a transfer for a good shot at another national championship?
How will schools like Notre Dame react to this situation?
The point is that the momentum on every level is in one direction. It is not that simple.
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Jersey Bernie,
I fully agree that this could be opening Pandora’s box. The devil, as always, is in the details of the legislation and accompanying enforcement regulations the NCAA creates. I think the NIL laws will contain some safeguards, but not enough. The system will be abused, as has always been true in CFB. But look back at when the Big 8 were all paying players – they were good but they didn’t take over CFB. The SEC bagmen have been effective for years, but they don’t produce sustained winning outside of Tuscaloosa. So I’m hopeful it will destroy the semblance of balance in CFB.
Notre Dame the school may think it is above this, but it’s boosters aren’t.
I’ll save getting too excited about this until we start seeing the details of what is and isn’t allowed.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31321271/lsu-tigers-banning-rb-derrius-guice-firing-long-law-firm
Things are heating up again at LSU over this drawn out sexual harassment scandal:
* Former RB Derrius Guice is being stricken from the record books after 6 different allegations against him.
* At its next meeting, LSU’s current board of supervisors will also consider a “vote of disapproval” for the failure of three previous board members to tell the rest of the group about the allegation of misconduct made in 2013 against Miles. It’s rare to see a board publicly fight like this.
* LSU is firing their long time law firm (80 years), Taylor Porter. Taylor Porter did the internal investigation into the allegations against Les Miles in 2013.
* LSU also added a small amount of extra discipline to some senior staff in the AD.
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/31317686/cfp-committee-considered-expanding-playoff-include-many-16-teams
CFP committee received proposals from a subcommittee on potential ways to expand the CFP.
A working group within the CFP management committee, which comprises the 10 FBS commissioners plus Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, discussed “some 63 possibilities for change,” according to a news release from the CFP. Those included models of six, eight, 10, 12 and 16 teams, each with a variety of different scenarios.
…
The CFP has set up a working group of four management committee members — Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby, Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Notre Dame’s Swarbrick. They are expected to make a report to the entire management committee about the future format at the CFP’s next meeting, which could be this summer. If there is a model the entire group supports, the committee will present it to the CFP board of managers, who have the ultimate authority over the playoff format.
Nothing would change during the current contract most likely, but we’re already 8 years into that 12 year deal (ends after 2025 season).
—
So let’s speculate. By far the most likely change, in my opinion, is going to 8 games. 6 would be too much pressure on the committee rankings for picking #2 vs #3, and I don’t think they want that. Also, there is more money to be made by having 8 teams and it wouldn’t extend the season any more than 6 teams would. 10 or more teams is too much growth at once for such a conservative group.
How many different 8 team options are there?
Autobids: 0, 5 or 6?
Scheduling: Quarterfinals in mid-December or after Christmas (extending the season another week+)?
Season: Keep 12 games + CCGs, drop CCGs, or drop 12th game?
Locations: Quarterfinals in more bowls, or just neutral sites, or on campus?
That’s 3*2*3*3 = 54 options to choose from, so plenty of arguing.
I think they will either stick with 0 autobids or go to 6 (P5 + 1 for G5). I think stopping at 5 would cause them problems, maybe even legally. Personally I’d prefer 6 autobids with conditions on minimum number of wins or CFP ranking, but they are likely to stay with 0 to pretend it’s a level playing field. I think there will be pressure to give more weight to conference championships going forward, though. I doubt they will put in a limit for teams from one conference, but they should cap it at 2 (3 at worst).
I think they will try to keep the NCG when it is for now, so they’ll put the quarterfinals in mid-December at the start of bowl season. This may change after they see how the TV numbers go.
Likewise I think they stick with the current schedule length. Dropping the 12th game hurts all the schools that don’t make the playoff and their communities, and also would eliminate buy games that help the lower levels. If they use autobids, then it “justifies” keeping the CCGs. Without autobids, I think they still keep the CCGs. After all, the lower level seasons end up at 16 games with their playoff, too.
They will continue to favor the south over the north by making the quarterfinals be played at neutral sites. I don’t think they want to use any of the little bowl names, though, and this round will probably be more like a “business trip” than the full bowl experience. Would the 4 big bowls that aren’t hosting the semi-finals want to host these games? I think they’d rather keep their bowl games near NYE/NYD, but those sites may host these games without the bowl names. I’d like to see some northern domes at least in the mix for quarterfinals, but I doubt outdoor games will be allowed anywhere but the south and west.
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https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/story/_/id/31334018/hall-fame-women-basketball-coach-kim-mulkey-leaves-baylor-lsu
Kim Mulkey, a hall of fame WBB coach with 3 NCs at Baylor, has decided to coach LSU. She grew up in Louisiana, but she didn’t attend LSU nor coach there (LA Tech). Her son attended LSU, but has graduated. Baylor is only about 200 miles away, so being closer to home seems like an odd explanation to me unless a relative is ill. Coaching is a 24/7 job except for dead periods, so how much more will she actually see family and friends? She’s only 58, so she has time to build a new program but this just seems unusual unless there is something else the public doesn’t know about.
This isd a great hire for LSU, but she had some controversial statements during Baylor’s sexual harassment scandal so the timing isn’t ideal. She also was anti-COVID testing for the Final Four (after her team was eliminated), which isn’t a great look.
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It has been way too long, my friends. I have a new post on a 12-team college football playoff:
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